“[4:28] They might have to just walk away from this absolute disaster here. [4:32] Yep, I'm going to say North Carolina goes belly up and Bill Belichick's going to get let go. [4:40] Probably midseason here. [4:42] We going to go level two lock North Carolina under the four and a half win total Last year North Carolina finished four and eight So basically if you even saying they going to equal last year [4:54] it's a winner, you know, by saying they're going under four and a half.”
Lee Sterling
Host · 1703-1673-51 on settled picks
Bankroll
Last 10: 6-4 Net units over time, 1 unit staked per pick · 1062 settled daysWhere the picks cash
record by league and market · ROI + color appear at ≥5 decided picks (smaller samples are noise)| League | spread | moneyline | total | prop | futures | other | parlay | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 45-45-5% | 184-195-8% | 60-56-2% | 87-72+7% | 14-15+45% | 8-8-5% | 0-1 | 398-392-2% |
| NBA | 251-252-5% | 20-18-2% | 13-10+8% | 7-5+8% | 2-10-3% | — | 0-2 | 293-297-4% |
| CBB | 229-203+1% | 22-20-0% | 11-7+16% | — | 2-4+358% | — | — | 264-234+6% |
| NFL | 121-95+7% | 35-36-6% | 18-26-22% | 47-45-5% | 24-34+9% | 2-3-41% | 5-6-12% | 252-245-0% |
| NHL | 15-19-6% | 113-101+2% | 35-36-6% | 2-2 | 2-7-56% | 0-5-100% | — | 167-170-4% |
| CFB | 97-103-7% | 34-34-5% | 4-7-31% | 1-6-73% | 23-26-12% | — | — | 159-176-10% |
| Other | 7-8-11% | 107-77+4% | 5-2+32% | 2-5-50% | 10-17-7% | 8-21-43% | 0-3 | 139-133-5% |
| WNBA | 13-12-1% | — | 4-2+27% | 5-2+42% | — | — | — | 22-16+12% |
| World Cup | 1-1 | 4-6-26% | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 | — | 8-8-1% |
Picks
3464 total · 12 pending“[3:40] It's very, very easy here. [3:43] And I think it's going to be a three-team race here in the AFC. [3:47] I think it's going to be Buffalo, the Chargers, and Cincinnati. [3:51] Three new teams here. [3:53] And I think Cincinnati over 10 and a half. [3:58] Not just good. [3:59] I think it's great here. [4:00] We're going to go with a blood-bound special.”
“[3:52] Last year, it went 12 games. [3:55] With C.J. Stroud out three games and falling behind 0-3. [4:00] Are you kidding me? [4:01] Nine and a half wins? [4:03] I'm going way over. [4:05] Let's go all the way up. [4:06] Level three lot.”
“[5:24] This is a really strong team here and nine and a half wins. I got the win total at 11. So don't be [5:32] afraid of the schedule here. Some people will say, oh, every year you bet the over and they don't [5:37] come through. This is the year the LA superchargers come through over nine and a half wins, minus 140.”
“We're going to go with another wrong fighter favorite here. We're winning this week, so you take a shot here. You're going to see a few underdogs on this card. I like Jan Bojovic plus the 255.”
“Didn't help them last two years. So I'm going over eight and a half wins for this Texas A&M team. It's an absolute hidden gem.”
“I'm going to take advantage of it here. I'm going to go with the Athletics under 71 and a half total wins on the season, minus 105. It's going to be my hidden gem.”
“I'm going under 10-1⁄2 here. Wrong team favored.”
“I think they still go under five and a half wins here. That's going to be wrong team favorite here. They're only going to win three, four games this year. All right, and we'll see how it all turns out with the Raiders again.”
“I'm going under 10 wins here. It's going all the way up on a Thursday, level three lock. And seeing some of the opponents outside the division for Chicago, they got to go to Buffalo. They got to go to Seattle.”
“So we'll go with first the L.A. Chargers plus the 700 and the Detroit Lions plus 800. Bet a little. Went a whole lot.”
“So we'll go with first the L.A. Chargers plus the 700 and the Detroit Lions plus 800. Bet a little. Went a whole lot.”
“[11:58] So let's go with a blowout special here. [12:01] Lay the two and a half. [12:03] You want to get it before it gets to three, and that's why we're going to play it bright and early here. [12:08] We're going to go with the Indianapolis Colts blowout special over the New England Patriots tonight.”
NE 13, IND 13 — Indianapolis Colts margin +0 vs line -2.5; busts.
“[14:03] think this is a steal inside the distance that either fighter wins that means the fight can't [14:09] go to a decision uh is minus 160 I put it at almost minus 300 here so we're gonna go with a [14:18] hidden gem [14:20] Vicente the silent [14:22] assassin Luque [14:23] and Treshawn [14:26] Gore here inside the [14:28] distance minus 160”
Tresean Gore and Vicente Luque went to a decision. (Tresean Gore def. Vicente Luque via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28))
“[4:20] So I like Washington. [4:22] Lions plus three. [4:23] Grab it right now before it goes down. [4:26] Washington commanders, level three lock over the Miami Dolphins on Friday night.”
WSH 20, MIA 7 — Washington Commanders margin +13 vs line +3; covers.
“[16:51] He might even get six. [16:52] Had those in a few over the last couple weeks. [16:54] So we're going to go with Lewis Arias here. [16:57] Over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs. [17:00] It's going to be a blowout special.”
Luis Arraez cleared the combined hits, runs, and runs-batted-in line. (Luis Arraez: 1 H, 0 R, 1 RBI; H+R+RBI 2)
“[3:33] So Tyler Shoddenstrom of the athletics here is going to be my hidden gem over one and a half hits, runs, RBI.”
Tyler Soderstrom did not appear in the official game record. (Tyler Soderstrom: did not play)
“[12:51] If he can just survive the first two, three, four minutes, I think he's got a real good chance to win this. [12:57] So this should be about a pick-em fight, and I'm seeing plus 130, plus 135. [13:03] So we're going to go with the phenom here, Tom Pagliarillo here over Mr. Malumbo,”
Thomas Pagliarulo defeated Ananias Mulumba by technical knockout. (Thomas Pagliarulo def. Ananias Mulumba via TKO, R3 4:24)
“[16:45] Mackenzie Gore, probably a little bit distracted. [16:49] Just came back from maternity leave. [16:51] His wife delivered a baby. [16:53] And so that's got to be on his mind here. [16:56] I don't think he's going to be ready to go 100%. [16:59] So I'm going to take my tryout here. [17:02] Over one and a half hits runs, RBIs. [17:05] It's going to be a low out special.”
Mike Trout cleared the combined hits, runs, and runs-batted-in line. (Mike Trout: 1 H, 1 R, 1 RBI; H+R+RBI 3)
“[3:06] But they're all starting to, you know, really click on all cylinders here. [3:10] So I think the Reds are going to make whatever move that they have left. [3:13] They're going to do it now here. [3:15] We're going to go the hidden gem on a Friday, Cincinnati Reds over the Washington Nationals.”
WSH 5, CIN 3 — Cincinnati Reds lost; moneyline busts.
“[11:53] the younger fighter, better cardio, better knockouts. I just think, I think he's the guy here. [12:01] So Gamrot's 35 [12:03] He had some nice moments [12:05] He's fought some tough competition [12:06] But I think he's on the way down here [12:08] We're going to go with [12:10] Level 3 Locke [12:13] We're going to go with [12:14] Pullen Southkild here [12:16] Over the gamer, Matuze Gamrot”
Quillan Salkilld defeated Mateusz Gamrot by submission. (Quillan Salkilld def. Mateusz Gamrot via submission (RNC), R1 4:25)
“[4:15] They thought that the twos and threes, Michael Flores said, [4:19] looked the best that they looked last couple days in camp So I taking the one and a half points here in Arizona And what I going to do is I if the line is plus one buy it up to one and a half Why do I say that Because games can end [4:36] in a tie in preseason football. And a lot of times, almost always, if a team scores and they're about [4:44] to tie it up with an extra point at the end of the game, what do they do? They go for two. So they [4:50] They usually win by one or lose by one. [4:53] So we're going to take the Arizona Cardinals plus the one and a half in the Hall of Fame game.”
ARI 30, CAR 33 — Arizona Cardinals margin -3 vs line +1.5; busts.
“[15:23] in devastating fashion. I just think that we're going to see Brian, the butcher battle here, [15:31] come really motivated here for the home folks. The line's 140. I want you to get on it right now. [15:37] I'm not waiting until tomorrow to get this fight out here. [15:40] Lay the 140. [15:41] It's probably going to close 155, 160. [15:44] Brian, formerly the Pooh Bear, but now the Butcher Battle, gets the job done.”
Bryan Battle defeated Dalton Rosta by split decision. (Bryan Battle won by split decision)
“[14:57] And I like the pitching matchup, too. [14:59] I'm going to lay the 145. [15:00] I like the Seattle Mariners big time. [15:04] Love out special in Seattle tonight. [15:07] Seattle Mariners over the Detroit Tigers.”
SEA 4, DET 2 — Seattle Mariners won; moneyline covers.
“[6:20] She had 20 points and four assists in that game, [6:23] and her prop is at 20, [6:26] I'm going with 20 and a half points and assists, okay? [6:29] So she has 21 combined points and assists. [6:31] We're going to go over that. [6:32] Now, this season, Lee, in 13 games, she's gone over this 11 times, and her average has been 29.8, so nearly nine points and assists more than what the average is. [6:46] And she did not face Atlanta earlier this season, but with the Sparks last year in three meetings, her average points and assists were 26.7, and she's averaging six and a half assists on the road. [6:59] Let's go with Kelsey Plum. [7:00] She's going to get the ball. [7:01] She's a compiler. [7:02] And let's go with over 20.5 points in assists as our first blowout in this game.”
Kelsey Plum recorded 19 points and 4 assists for 23 combined, clearing the 20.5 line. (Kelsey Plum 19 points + 4 assists = 23; line 20.5)
“[7:07] On the other side, Angel Reese of the Dream. [7:10] Everyone, you know, a lot of opinions on her, obviously. [7:13] She can rebound. [7:14] Not a great skilled player, but I will say that her scoring has improved of late. [7:20] She's averaged 22 points a game in her past three outings. [7:23] We're going to look at her over on points and rebounds, 27.5. [7:27] half. So we need 28 points and rebounds or more. But last eight games, she's averaging 19.4 [7:33] points per game, nearly 12 rebounds a game. And here's a key though, Lee. Phoenix is one of the [7:40] worst defensive teams in the league. So in defensive rating, if you're 10th or below, [7:45] and Phoenix is in that category, Reese is averaging 29.4 points and rebounds a game. [7:51] So she takes care of business against these kinds of teams. She'll get the rebounds. It's going to [7:56] be an up and down game there's gonna be opportunities to score opportunities to get [8:00] rebounds so we go with angel reese over 27 and a half points and rebounds so both kelsey plumb over [8:06] her points and assist reese over her points and rebounds as our wnba double play blowout special [8:14] double double play i love that i'm all in now are the games at the same time or close [8:20] No, they're playing each other. [8:22] Oh, playing each other. [8:23] You got all of it in one. [8:25] So it's all just watch one game and that's it. [8:27] Okay. [8:28] Okay. [8:28] I can't, you know, put up two WNBA games, you know, [8:33] when there's a bunch of good baseball games.”
Angel Reese recorded 14 points and 10 rebounds for 24 combined, below the 27.5 line. (Angel Reese 14 points + 10 rebounds = 24; line 27.5)
“[14:02] And I, like I said, expect him to pitch six, at least six or seven innings. [14:05] So let's go with the hidden gem here. [14:08] Mackenzie Gore over six and a half strikeouts uh he couldn't go over by the fifth six in”
TEX 5, SF 4 — MacKenzie Gore: 4 strikeouts vs over 6.5; busts. (MacKenzie Gore: 4 strikeouts)
“[15:43] So we're going to go with a bet a little. [15:46] Went a lot here on the over half run total. [15:50] Over half a home run here for Bryce Harper. [15:54] plus 282. Bet a little. Went a whole lot.”
Bryce Harper hit no home runs. (Bryce Harper 0 home runs)
“[16:37] And he resumes to the pitcher he was in years past. [16:40] So I like Aaron Nola tonight. [16:42] I like this Philadelphia team not buying in on Washington much for the second half of the season. [16:48] So let's go with the low-out special. [16:52] The fight and fills tonight. [16:53] Easy over the Washington Nationals.”
6-3 — Philadelphia defeated Washington 6-3.
“[13:00] So I'm going to put Medich here, the doctor. [13:03] I'm going to use him in a couple of different parlays. [13:06] So I think he gets to win in his home country, probably a knockout sometime in the first, second or early third here. [13:13] We're going to go all the way up [13:17] A level 3 lock here for the Dr. [13:21] Uris Medich here over D-Rod [13:23] Daniel Rodriguez in the main event”
Uros Medic defeated Daniel Rodriguez by KO/TKO, so the Medic moneyline won. (Medic defeated Rodriguez by KO/TKO)
“[3:57] I'm going to ride the Marlins tonight here. [3:59] Should be a nice win as an underdog, plus one and ten.”
4-2 — Mets beat Marlins 4-2; Marlins moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So it's back the Mariners, plus 130 against the Dodgers as our MLB. Hidden gem.”
6-2 — Dodgers beat Mariners 6-2; Mariners moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So I'm not going to take this and lay the 150, 155. I feel so confident in Boston. The one loss that Jack Hadley yesterday was this game. I think he was a day too early here. We're going to fire here on the Red Sox, and we're going to lay the one and a half runs plus 100, it's going to be a level three lot.”
4-2 — Red Sox beat Athletics 4-2 in 10 innings; Boston's margin of +2 covers the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“and we're going to focus on a prop here, Paige Beckers of the Dallas Wings, and we're going to go over one and a half three-pointers made. She's plus 108 at FanDuel on that one.”
82-81 — Paige Bueckers made 1 of 5 three-pointers (1-5) in Dream 82, Wings 81; under the 1.5 threes-made line (ESPN box score). (Paige Bueckers: 1-5 threes made)
“here I don see any great pitcher here He five and nine Walk 32 guys 453 ERA here So get that righty against the left righty here I think Chase Delauder here is going to do a job here. Over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs for Chase Delauder here. Not well known, but I think he's going to go over that.”
6-1 — Chase DeLauter went 1-for-3 with 1 hit, 1 run, and 0 RBIs (total 2) as Guardians beat Reds 6-1; clears the 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs line (ESPN box score). (Chase DeLauter: 1 hit, 1 run, 0 RBI)
“Let's go with the Nerfie. No run first inning here in the Yankees-Chicago-White Sox game.”
NYY 9, CWS 5 — Chicago White Sox scored 3 runs in the top of the 1st (Yankees won 9-5 on 7/27/26); the no-run-1st pick busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm going back to the well with them tonight against Cincinnati. and they're a nice underdog at FanDuel as our wrong team favorite.”
CLE 6, CIN 5 — The Guardians-Reds game was rained out on 7/27/26 and made up as the 7/28/26 day-night doubleheader opener; Game 1, pitched by Slade Cecconi vs Chase Burns as stated, saw Cleveland win 6-5 on a Kyle Manzardo first-inning grand slam (ESPN box score).
“Blowout special here. I think he gets over one and a half hits runs, RBIs. I think it's easy tonight here.”
BOS 4, ATH 2 — Wilyer Abreu went 0-for-3 with a run scored (0H+1R+0RBI=1) as Boston beat Oakland 4-2 on 7/27/26; misses the Over 1.5 (ESPN box score). (Abreu: 0H, 1R, 0RBI)
“I'm thinking the Phillies here. Moneyline minus 130. Level two left.”
NYY 1, PHI 0 — New York beat Philadelphia 1-0 on 7/24/26; Phillies moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“We're going to take the Guardians. They're plus 118 at FanDuel.”
TB 11, CLE 3 — Tampa Bay beat Cleveland 11-3 on 7/24/26; Guardians moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with a blowout special. Boston Red Sox tonight minus the 125 over Toronto they should win by a few runs”
BOS 6, TOR 4 — Boston beat Toronto 6-4 on 7/24/26; Red Sox moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Junior Caminero is going to dig in here. I'm taking him over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs. Going to be a blowout special to lead off Thursday.”
TOR 3, TB 1 — Junior Caminero went 0-for-4 with 3 strikeouts (0H+0R+0RBI) as Toronto beat Tampa Bay 3-1 on 7/23/26; misses the Over 1.5 (ESPN box score). (Caminero: 0H, 0R, 0RBI)
“Let's go with Arizona, basically a pick-em spot, a little bit of plus money. Let's take them against St. Louis. I like this one-off game for them on the road. Let's back the Diamondbacks against the Cardinals as our MLB hit and gem.”
ARI 10, STL 6 — Arizona beat St. Louis 10-6 in their 7/23/26 makeup game (originally postponed from June 25); Diamondbacks moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to go with a level two lock on a Nerfie, no-run first inning, on this game, the Royals and the Tigers.”
DET 4, KC 3 — Neither Kansas City nor Detroit scored in the 1st inning on 7/23/26 (Tigers won 4-3 on a late homer); the no-run-1st pick covers (ESPN box score).
“but there's a good chance that Jack Caglione is not going to play here also. I'm going under the eight runs here. That's going to be my level three lock.”
DET 4, KC 3 — Detroit beat Kansas City 4-3 on 7/23/26; combined 7 runs is under the 8 total (ESPN box score).
“But I'm going with Thad Jean here. Wrong fighter favorite. He's plus 114. He should be the favorite in my book here. Wrong fighter favorite, Thad Jean. And the PFL main card, main fight here, he gets a W for us.”
ESPN's schedule lists the 7/25/26 PFL Washington DC main event as "Jean vs. Rodriguez," confirming Thad Jean's originally-booked opponent Shamil Musaev was replaced before fight night; per standard book convention, a moneyline bet on the original pairing voids on an opponent change.
“Let's start off right out of the gate. Level one lock. A Nerfie, no-run first inning here. San Diego and the Atlanta Braves.”
ATL 7, SD 6 — Atlanta scored in the top of the 1st (Baldwin scored on a Harris II groundout) and beat San Diego 7-6 on 7/22/26; the no-run-1st-inning pick busts (ESPN box score).
“And we're going to take the over on her scoring prop tonight, 21 and a half at Fan Duel and a couple of numbers here”
IND 123, CON 88 — Kelsey Mitchell scored 23 points (9-16 FG) as Indiana beat Connecticut 123-88 on 7/22/26; clears the Over 21.5 (ESPN box score). (Kelsey Mitchell: 23 points)
“I'm going to go with Sam, no nickname, Patterson here. inside the distance, minus 170. Let's go all the way up. Level three lock.”
Sam Patterson defeated Santiago Ponzinibbio by TKO (punches) in round 2 at 3:06, a finish inside the distance, at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov (Abu Dhabi) on 7/25/26 (ESPN).
“I think this is a great spot. Line is low, minus 115, most minus 120 here. I'm going to start off with a lock right out of the gate on a Tuesday. Level two lock. Seattle Mariners tonight of the Cincinnati Reds.”
CIN 4, SEA 2 — Cincinnati Reds beat Seattle Mariners 4-2 on 7/21/26; Mariners moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“We're going to another first five, but a total, not the side. And we're going to take the under four and a half. First five between the Mets and the Brewers in Milwaukee tonight at FanDuel. It's a plus 106 against a nice plus money back.”
NYM 4, MIL 0 — Mets led Brewers 3-0 through 5 innings (won 4-0 final) on 7/21/26; combined first-5 total of 3 runs is under the 4.5 line (ESPN box score). (F5: NYM 3, MIL 0 (combined 3))
“We're going to go over, way over 13 runs tonight. Washington, Colorado, blowout special.”
COL 8, WSH 7 — Colorado beat Washington 8-7 on 7/21/26; combined 15 runs clears the Over 13 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a blowout special. Fernando Tatis over one and a half hits runs RBIs tonight in hot land”
ATL 3, SD 2 — Fernando Tatis Jr. went 0-for-3 with a walk (0 hits, 0 runs, 0 RBI) as Atlanta beat San Diego 3-2 on 7/20/26; the over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs prop loses (ESPN scoreboard; StatMuse box score). (Tatis: 0H, 0R, 0RBI)
“And we're going to take the Tigers in the first five. It's minus 115 both ways at FanDuel.”
DET 8, CHC 6 (10 inn) — Detroit led Chicago 4-3 through 5 innings (Tigers scored 4 in the 1st) before winning 8-6 in 10 innings on 7/20/26; the Tigers first-5-innings moneyline wins (ESPN scoreboard; StatMuse line score). (F5: DET 4, CHC 3)
“So I just think that England is good or better than France here. I think they're going to play hard here give me give me england here plus 160 wrong team favorite”
FRA 4, ENG 6 — England beat France 6-4 in the World Cup third-place match in Miami on July 18, 2026; all goals (last at 90'+8') fell within regulation stoppage time, so England's win-in-regulation moneyline wins (ESPN scoreboard).
“All right, so the Toronto Tempo, they're getting nine and a half at home against the Atlanta Dream. We're going to take the points of the Tempo tonight.”
ATL 111, TOR 92 — Atlanta beat Toronto 111-92; the Tempo's -19 margin fails to cover +9.5 (ESPN box score).
“let's go with uh shohei otani here the machine here over one and a half hits runs rvis tonight as our low-out special.”
LAD 2, NYY 1 — Shohei Ohtani went 0-for-4 (0 hits, 0 runs, 0 RBI) as the Dodgers beat the Yankees 2-1 on 7/17/26; the over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs prop loses (ESPN scoreboard; StatMuse box score). (Ohtani: 0H, 0R, 0RBI)
“So I think this fight is priced wrong. We're going to go with a wrong fighter favorite, Alberto, the promise Montez, plus 145. Get it now.”
Tommy McMillen defeated Alberto Montes by TKO (punches) in Round 3 at UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs Usman on July 18, 2026; Montez/Montes moneyline loses (Wikipedia).
“Let's go with a low-off special one, Soto, over one-and-a-half hits, runs, and RBIs.”
NYM 4, PHI 1 — Juan Soto went 1-for-1 with 3 walks (1 hit, 0 runs, 0 RBI, combined total 1) as the Mets beat the Phillies 4-1 on 7/16/26; the over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs prop loses (ESPN scoreboard; StatMuse box score). (Soto: 1H, 0R, 0RBI)
“Let's take them plus one and a half. Liberty, Liberty, Liberty. Let's take them against the wings here as our WNBA wrong team favorite.”
NY 99, DAL 98 (OT) — The Liberty-Wings game was postponed from 7/16 to a makeup on 7/20/26; New York won 99-98 in OT, comfortably covering +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“France to win in regulation. First 90 minutes. Got to somehow win in 90 minutes here. Plus 143. It's going to be my bet a little win a lot.”
FRA 0, ESP 2 — Spain beat France 2-0 in the World Cup semifinal (Oyarzabal 22' pen, Porro 58'), both goals in regulation; France's moneyline-in-regulation bet loses (ESPN scoreboard).
“And we're going to lay the points to the Mystics. They're laying one and a half right now on the road against the Tempo.”
WSH 79, TOR 62 — Washington beat Toronto 79-62; the Mystics' +17 margin easily covers -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“i just think the line is at eight and a half i made this line seven and a half so i think there's value uh i'm going to take the under eight and a half here in the national league al all-star game here i think it's pretty strong winner here it's going to be uh let's go almost all the way up level two lock here under eight and a half in the major league baseball all-star game tonight”
NL 0, AL 4 — The American League shut out the National League 4-0 at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game in Philadelphia; the combined total of 4 runs is well under 8.5 (Wikipedia 2026 MLB All-Star Game).
“[2:23] uh got about four to one on junior camonero bryce harper is seven to one cagling why is [2:30] caglion the same price as bryce harper here so i i just think this guy's been red hot a lot of [2:37] people wrote him off earlier in the season i said he's going to come on he's going to have a great [2:41] year we've bet him a bunch on you know the over one and a half hits runs rbis and he's he's a [2:48] monster. I saw him in college and he is big and strong and I think he can last a few rounds here [2:54] and maybe pull off the shocker here. So I'm going to go with a bet a little, [2:58] win a whole lot. And what I think is the most exciting aspect of the all-star week, [3:05] Jack Caglione here to win the home run derby tonight. Yeah. And Sinister's Bank Park,”
Jordan Walker won the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby, defeating Kyle Schwarber 12-11 in the championship round; Jac Caglianone was eliminated in Round One with 8 home runs, so the futures bet on him to win loses (Wikipedia 2026 MLB Home Run Derby).
“They're getting 12 and a half. We're going to take the points of the Phoenix Mercury.”
MIN 104, PHX 100 — Minnesota beat Phoenix 104-100; Mercury's -4 margin easily covers the +12.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“[12:09] So Memphis is an eight-and-a-half-point favorite. [12:11] They're one and up. [12:12] They won one game by one point. [12:15] Dallas Mavericks got blown out. [12:17] In fact, they've lost both games by an average of 16 points. [12:21] I think we're going to sit there after this game or by the middle of the week and say, [12:25] Memphis is 3-0 and Dallas is 0-3. [12:29] Why didn't we go against them? [12:30] I like to watch one or two games. [12:32] I think I have a pretty good feel for both of these two teams. [12:35] I watched at least a half of both of their games so far, at least one of them. [12:39] I think Dallas, the roster is not good. [12:42] Memphis has a much better roster here. [12:44] and we might be saying Memphis might be a surprise team early in the year. [12:50] Might be they might be selling shirts in Memphis, Boozer Ball. [12:54] I'm going with a blowout special. Memphis wins this game by 15 to 20.”
DAL 96, MEM 88 — Dallas beat Memphis 96-88 in NBA Summer League on 7/13/26; the Grizzlies lost outright, failing to cover -8.5 (ESPN Summer League scoreboard).
“But I think Cleveland's the choice here. I think he's coming home here. I think it's a horrible fit. I think that, you know, you look at the guys on that roster, just does not go at all. But I think he's coming home at plus 112, level two luck.”
LeBron James signed with the Philadelphia 76ers for the 2026-27 season, not the Cleveland Cavaliers, so the futures bet loses (Wikipedia).
“So we're going to take the plus 105 here, money here, and Nikita Krylov here. It's definitely my first out of the gate hidden gem.”
Robert Whittaker defeated Nikita Krylov by TKO (jaw injury) 1:01 into Round 3 at UFC 329 (T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, July 11, 2026); Krylov moneyline loses (Wikipedia UFC 329 results).
“I'll take Brandon, raw dog, Roy Val here, plus 180. Wrong fighter favor.”
Brandon Royval defeated Lone'er Kavanagh by submission (rear-naked choke) at 3:40 of Round 3 at UFC 329 (July 11, 2026); Royval moneyline wins (Wikipedia UFC 329 results).
“Another wrong fighter favor here. Mario Batista gets the job done.”
Mario Bautista defeated Cory Sandhagen by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC 329 (July 11, 2026); Bautista moneyline wins (Wikipedia UFC 329 results).
“It's going another, you know, it's minus 110 either way. So let's go with a hidden gem on T-Rex Terrence McKinney.”
King Green defeated Terrance McKinney by TKO (punches) at 4:59 of Round 1 at UFC 329 (July 11, 2026); McKinney moneyline loses (Wikipedia UFC 329 results).
“And we're going to take the Chicago Sky. They're getting a point here against L.A.”
LA 102, CHI 87 — LA Sparks beat Chicago 102-87; Sky lost by 15, well outside the +1 spread; busts (ESPN box score).
“Cody Clements over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs here. Going to be an easy, easy winner.”
LAA 4, MIN 3 — Kody Clemens went 0-for-4 with a sacrifice-fly RBI (0H+0R+1RBI=1) for Minnesota as the Angels won 4-3; over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs busts (ESPN box score). (Kody Clemens 0-for-4, 0H+0R+1RBI=1)
“So, Sandy's going to get the job done here. Let's go with another easy winner here, Sandy Alcantara. And the Miami Marlins get another win, their seventh straight.”
CLE 3, MIA 2 — Cleveland beat Miami 3-2; Marlins ML busts (ESPN box score).
“This line shouldn't be minus 220 Holloway. This line should be like minus 500, minus 700. Free money here. Max bless Holloway. Easy win. He takes out Conor McGregor in two or three rounds. Slated for five. Not going that long here. Going to be a level three lock.”
Max Holloway defeated Conor McGregor by TKO (knee injury) at 1:09 of Round 1 in the UFC 329 main event on July 11, 2026; Holloway ML covers (Wikipedia results table, corroborated by ESPN MMA coverage). (Holloway def. McGregor, TKO (knee injury), R1 1:09)
“I'm going to go with the Mariners here to avoid the sweep against the Marlins. I think they bounced back after losing the first two. So we're going to go with the Seattle Mariners as our MLB. Hidden gem.”
MIA 8, SEA 4 — Miami swept Seattle, winning 8-4; Mariners ML busts (ESPN box score).
“Blowout special. Brandon Marsh, way over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs. He gets the job done here for us tonight on our blowout special.”
PHI 1, CIN 0 — Brandon Marsh went 2-for-4 (2H+0R+0RBI=2) as Philadelphia beat Cincinnati 1-0; over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs covers (ESPN box score). (Brandon Marsh 2-for-4, 2H+0R+0RBI=2)
“We're going to go the lock right out of the gate. level one lock here Juan Soto over one and a half hits runs RBIs tonight”
KC 2, NYM 6 — Juan Soto went 0-for-3 with 2 walks (0H+0R+0RBI) as the Mets beat Kansas City 6-2; over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs busts (ESPN box score). (Juan Soto 0-for-3, 0H+0R+0RBI)
“And we're going to take the Baltimore Orioles tonight. They're hosting the Chicago Cubs right now at FanDuel. The Orioles are laying 126 to the Cubs.”
BAL 7, CHC 9 — Chicago beat Baltimore 9-7; Orioles ML busts (ESPN box score).
“And just think that Cody Durden at this price, plus $220,000 is the way to go here. Bet a little. Went a lot on Cody Durden.”
Alessandro Costa defeated Cody Durden by submission (rear-naked choke) at 2:19 of Round 2 at UFC 329 on July 11, 2026; Durden ML busts (Wikipedia results table, corroborated by ESPN MMA coverage). (Costa def. Durden, submission (rear-naked choke), R2 2:19)
“we're gonna go with a nerfie here la angels and texas rangers no one first inning here love this play it's gonna be a level three lock”
TEX 8, LAA 3 — The Angels scored 2 runs in the 1st inning (Soler double, Lowe single) as Texas rallied to win 8-3; no-run-first-inning busts (ESPN box score).
“And we're going to take the Wings plus the points, or plus four and a half against the Liberty.”
NY 77, DAL 88 — Dallas beat New York 88-77 (Shepard triple-double); Wings won outright, well inside the +4.5 spread; covers (ESPN box score).
“The total here is eight and a half. I mean, they might go over 12, 14, 16 runs here tonight here. This one's simple here. Blowout special over eight and a half runs Arizona, San Diego tonight.”
SD 4, ARI 1 — San Diego beat Arizona 4-1; combined 5 runs is well under 8.5; over busts (ESPN box score).
“But I think Baligan's the difference here. We're going to go with Team USA to advance. it's going to be a level two lock”
BEL 4, USA 1 — Belgium beat the United States 4-1 in the World Cup Round of 16 (Tillman scored the lone US goal); Team USA to advance busts (ESPN match report).
“But Washington getting five and a half points tonight at home. I think they slow down Golden State. Revenge game from last year. Golden State's been on fire playing good teams. Now you drop down a little bit playing a mediocre team in Washington. Let's take the points of the Mystics here against the Valkyries in our WNBA. Wrong team favorite.”
GS 62, WSH 49 — Golden State beat Washington 62-49; Mystics lost by 13, well outside the +5.5 spread; busts (ESPN box score).
“He's going to have a big game here. We're going to go with a hidden gem under Goodman here over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs tonight in their game against the LA Dodgers.”
LAD 8, COL 7 — Hunter Goodman went 0-for-4 (0H+0R+0RBI) as the Dodgers beat Colorado 8-7 in 11 innings; over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs busts (ESPN box score). (Hunter Goodman 0-for-4, 0H+0R+0RBI)
“I'm going to take the White Sox here. Maybe we'll call them the Go-Go Sox. That used to be their nickname. Plus 115. Nice underdog here. It's going to be a level two lot.”
CLE 4, CHW 3 — Cleveland beat Chicago 4-3 in 10 innings; White Sox ML busts (ESPN box score).
“We're going to take the Toronto Blue Jays here. They're minus 125 or so at most books tonight in this matchup here.”
SEA 0, TOR 2 — Toronto beat Seattle 2-0 behind Dylan Cease's seven strong innings; Blue Jays ML covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with a blowout special here. Josh Bell here, uh, over one and a half hits runs RBIs. 13 of the past 16 games for Josh Bell. He's gone over this prop.”
MIN 2, NYY 5 — Josh Bell went 0-for-3 with a walk (0H+0R+0RBI) as the Yankees beat Minnesota 5-2; over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs busts (ESPN box score). (Josh Bell 0-for-3, 0H+0R+0RBI)
“I'm going to go with a Nerfie here. There might be fireworks later in the game, but not right out of the gate here. I'm going with a no-run first inning, a nerfy on the New York Mets-Atlanta Braves game tonight. It's going to be my hidden gem.”
ATL 5, NYM 3 — Neither the Mets nor Braves scored in the 1st inning (Braves' first run came in the 2nd); Atlanta won 5-3; no-run-first-inning covers (ESPN box score).
“Let's go with a lock right out of the gate. level two lock on a Thursday morning. Shohei Otani over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs on Thursday night.”
12-7 — Shohei Ohtani went 1-for-4 with no runs or RBIs (1H+0R+0RBI=1) as the Dodgers beat San Diego 12-7; the over 1.5 H+R+RBI prop busts (ESPN box score). (Shohei Ohtani: 1H+0R+0RBI)
“But my pick, under 165.5. We're going to go with the total tonight in this one.”
76-81 — Washington beat Atlanta 81-76, a combined 157 points, under the 165.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Switzerland's minus 210 to advance. I like Algeria, plus 165. I'm going to take a shot on them. Bet a little. Went a whole lot on Algeria to get the job done tonight.”
0-2 — Switzerland beat Algeria 2-0 in the Round of 32, eliminating them; Algeria to advance loses (ESPN match report).
“I think the better bet here is to bet a little, win a lot here with Baller and Balagan. I think he's going to score a goal here, plus 120 anytime.”
2-0 — Folarin Balogun scored in the 45th minute as the USA beat Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 in the Round of 32; the anytime goalscorer prop cashes (ESPN match report).
“I'm going to take Paul Skeens at plus 120 and the Pirates to beat the Phillies tonight in Philadelphia as our MLB wrong team favorite.”
6-10 — Philadelphia beat Pittsburgh 10-6, keyed by a Trea Turner three-run homer; the Pirates ML loses (ESPN box score).
“So I think I'm going to take Belgium here versus Senegal. Belgium to advance. It's minus 160 here.”
3-2 (AET) — Belgium beat Senegal 3-2 in extra time on a Youri Tielemans penalty to advance; Belgium to advance cashes (ESPN match report).
“I think you take the money line and the free money here. Germany money line minus two twenty two seventy five here over Paraguay.”
1-1 (Paraguay won on penalties) — Germany and Paraguay drew 1-1 through 90 minutes/extra time, with Paraguay advancing 4-3 on penalties; a moneyline bet on Germany does not settle as a win (ESPN match report).
“[13:41] Henry Bolte of the A's. [13:43] A good young hitter for them. [13:45] And the A's back home after losing the final two to the Angels. [13:49] Dodgers up to Sacramento tonight after they grabbed the final two against the Padres So what can the A do But you like a Henry Bolte prop tonight Lee Yeah I do I mean you fired up this morning Would you have two cups of coffee Kevin What [14:04] going on here? You're not in the same time zone as me. So I had to show a little more excitement. [14:08] That's what it was. Okay, I get it. All right. Yeah, making up for me a little bit late night [14:13] last night. Had a couple glasses of wine relaxing with some friends. But I think I found a hidden [14:20] gem here. Henry Bolte. Here's a guy. He was drafted just a couple of years ago, 56 pick overall. [14:30] And boy, what a senior season he had in high school. Finished 441 batting average, 13 homers, [14:36] 42 RBIs in a high school season. And he's just rocketed through the minors. He started off [14:44] hitting, they had him usually hitting six, seven, usually seventh, and even once in a while, eight. [14:49] They moved him up last Wednesday to the leadoff position. [14:53] And what has he done so far this year in 42 games? [14:56] Hit 299, 385 on base percentage. [15:00] He also has 10 stolen bases, so has some nice speed. [15:04] He can turn sometimes a single if he's on the move into a run scored. [15:10] And they like to play a little hit and run. [15:12] They probably have, I think unquestioned, the best 1-2-3 lineup as far as young talent. [15:19] out of a team with Shea Langeleers hitting behind him and then also, obviously, Nick Kurtz. [15:26] So look out. This team has a lot of talent. I have trouble taking them a lot of times in full games because their bullpen isn't there. [15:32] But, you know, looking at player props, I think he's the guy. He's facing a lefty here in Eric Lauer, [15:37] who has not done the job for the Dodgers so far this year. [15:41] a 3-5 with a 487 ERA. [15:45] In 64 innings pitch, he's already given up 16 home runs, [15:50] only 42 strikeouts and 24 walks this year for Lauer. [15:55] So Lauer's really struggled here, [15:57] and I think they might be able to catch him early. [15:58] And, you know, if Henry Bolte gets a walk or a single lead off, [16:02] he actually can hit home runs too. [16:05] Had that propensity in the minors hit home runs. [16:08] Only has two so far, but he might go on a tear. [16:10] One of these guys, you might say in the next month, you're like, oh, all of a sudden, you know, he's got 10, 11, 12 home runs. [16:16] So he could go an absolute tear here. [16:18] So his first or second at bat, you know, he could go over the one and a half hits, runs, RBI. [16:23] So we're going to go the hidden gem here, Henry Bolte here of the athletics here against the Dodgers.”
9-4 — Henry Bolte went 1-for-5 with 1 RBI (1H+0R+1RBI=2) as the Dodgers beat Oakland 9-4; the over 1.5 H+R+RBI prop cashes (ESPN box score). (Henry Bolte: 1H+0R+1RBI)
“I'm going to come right out of the gate here. It's a late night game. So you got to stay up late to see this one. But we're going with the Red Devils of Belgium here. Lay the two and a half goals, plus money, plus 120. Level two luck.”
5-1 — Belgium beat New Zealand 5-1 in the World Cup group match, a margin of +4 vs the -2.5 line; Belgium covers (ESPN match report).
“[10:49] But with that being said, we're going to lay the points with Washington tonight, [10:52] laying four and a half at Connecticut.”
57-68 — Connecticut beat Washington 68-57, an -11 margin for the Mystics vs the -4.5 line; Mystics don't cover (ESPN box score).
“And I like Bryce Terang here. Over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs. I think goes way over it. Blowout special Bryce Terang tonight. Milwaukee Brewers,”
2-6 — Brice Turang went 0-for-4 with a sacrifice, no runs or RBIs, as Milwaukee beat the Cubs 6-2; the over 1.5 H+R+RBI prop busts (ESPN box score). (Brice Turang: 0H+0R+0RBI)
“I'm going to keep riding USA money line tonight here. It's going to be a little unlocked.”
2-3 — Türkiye beat the USA 3-2 on Kaan Ayhan's 90+8' winner in the World Cup group match in Los Angeles; USA ML loses (ESPN match report).
“So Las Vegas minus five and a half. That's our WNBA blowout special.”
99-84 — Las Vegas Aces beat Dallas Wings 99-84, a margin of +15 vs the -5.5 line; Aces cover (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go over five and a half strikeouts for Kevin Gossman here. Toronto Blue Jays, it's going to be a level two lock.”
6-5 — Kevin Gausman finished with 6.0 IP and 4 strikeouts as Texas beat Toronto 6-5; the over 5.5 K prop busts (ESPN box score). (Kevin Gausman: 4 strikeouts)
“Let's go with another Nerf here for the Yankees and Boston Red Sox tonight. It's going to be a level three lock all the way up.”
3-6 — The Yankees scored in the top of the 1st on a Dominguez RBI single that plated Goldschmidt; Boston beat New York 6-3. "No run in the 1st" loses (ESPN box score linescore).
“So instead of trying to pick a winner and laying one and a half goal or taking a half goal, let's just go over the two and a half goals here tonight in the highly anticipated Brazil-Scotland game as my blowout special.”
BRA 3, SCO 0 — Brazil beat Scotland 3-0 in World Cup Group Stage play (Vinicius Jr. 2, Cunha); the combined 3 goals clears the over 2.5 total (ESPN match report).
“[7:42] And we're going to take the Valkyries here. [7:44] They're plus two and a half against the Dream.”
GS 77, ATL 66 — Golden State beat Atlanta 77-66; margin +11 covers the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“He'll go with the five and a half strikeouts. Another blowout special.”
COL 8, BOS 6 — Ranger Suárez struck out 9 over 6.0 innings in Boston's 8-6 loss at Colorado; over 5.5 strikeouts wins (ESPN box score). (Ranger Suárez: 6.0 IP, 9 K)
“So I'm going to take J.J. Bidet here. Over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs. It's going to be my hidden gem.”
MIL 2, CIN 0 — JJ Bleday went 0-for-2 with no runs or RBIs as Milwaukee shut out Cincinnati 2-0; under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs busts (ESPN box score). (JJ Bleday: 0-2, 0 R, 0 RBI)
“[9:13] but these two rivals hooking up and the Aces right now [9:17] a short favorite laying two.”
NY 87, LV 76 — The New York Liberty beat the Las Vegas Aces 87-76 on the road; margin +11 covers the +2 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take the plus a half a goal here with Senegal. it's going to be my hidden gem.”
SEN 2, NOR 3 — Norway beat Senegal 3-2 (Haaland brace) in World Cup Group Stage play; Senegal +0.5 busts (ESPN match report).
“[12:05] I think here minus 115 is a pretty reasonable price to go over one and a half. We said with [12:10] Kaitlin Clark, two and a half. To get to three, it feels like it's asking a lot. It's just getting [12:15] to two. So I think she can get to two threes tonight. Let's go with Paige Beckers over one [12:20] and a half threes made against the Seattle storm in our WNBA blowout special. Oh, I can see it. I [12:26] mean, I mean, Seattle's awful. I've watched them a lot recently play very little defense. And then [12:32] in the second half, they just can't score. So I could see her. The only way I can see her not [12:38] getting to the two three pointers is if they're just, you know, the arena is just dead and there's [12:44] no you know there's no uh incentive to blow a team out or she's taken out early let's say they're up [12:51] 20 points going into fourth quarter so uh i still like it i think it's uh she's going over the one [12:57] and a half threes yes and that that is a concern but i think two is manageable enough to hopefully”
DAL 112, SEA 110 — Paige Bueckers made 3 of 6 three-pointers as Dallas beat Seattle 112-110 in overtime; over 1.5 threes made wins (ESPN box score). (Paige Bueckers: 3-6 3PT)
“I'm going to go with a level two lock. Bryce Terrain, over one and a half. Hits runs RBIs tonight in their game against Cincinnati.”
MIL 2, CIN 1 — Brice Turang went 2-for-4 with a double (2H+0R+0RBI=2) as Milwaukee beat Cincinnati 2-1 in 10 innings; over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs wins (ESPN box score). (Brice Turang: 2-4, 2B)
“So I'm taking Jack Haglion here. over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs. It's going to be our first blowout special of a Friday.”
KC 6, STL 5 — Jac Caglianone (podcast said 'Caglione') hit a home run and drove in two runs as Kansas City beat St. Louis 6-5; over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs wins (ESPN box score). (Jac Caglianone: HR, 2 RBI)
“[5:41] with Minnesota. They are laying two and a half on the road here. And Minnesota, just one road loss, [5:48] which came at Las Vegas at the defending champion Aces, a bit of a revenge game for the Aces after [5:53] Minnesota ran them out last year in Vegas. And that kind of started Vegas's run towards the [6:00] championship. And Minnesota had injuries they couldn't overcome. And they obviously fall short [6:05] of getting to the WNBA finals. But I think here, Minnesota's played very well. Olivia Miles, [6:10] The second pick at a TCU who's been terrific. [6:13] Who's going to win the rookie of the year when it's all said and done. [6:15] Averaging nearly 20 points a game. [6:17] She has helped lead this Minnesota team. [6:18] They're great defensively as well. [6:21] Plus 14 point differential. [6:23] Only team with double digit point differential in the WNBA best record so far. [6:27] If it ain't broke, don't fix it. [6:30] Minnesota hasn't lost to Golden State. [6:31] I'm not going to call for a Golden State win tonight. [6:33] They're going to play them tough. [6:34] But I think Minnesota pulls away. [6:36] Let's lay the points with the Lynx on the road against the Valkyries in our WNBA.”
MIN 81, GS 75 — The Minnesota Lynx beat the Golden State Valkyries 81-75 on the road; margin +6 covers the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“It's going to be Alan Nascimento here. Takes Mitch Raposo. Lay the minus 185.”
Allan Nascimento defeated Mitch Raposo by split decision (scores 29-28, 28-29, 29-28) at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2; the Nascimento moneyline wins (ESPN fight results).
“So we're going to go with the over one and a half. Hits, runs, RBIs for Juan Soto. Blowout special on a Thursday.”
NYM 6, PHI 4 — Juan Soto hit two solo home runs (2H+2R+2RBI=6) as the Mets beat the Phillies 6-4; over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs wins (ESPN box score). (Juan Soto: 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI)
“[8:05] The Dream, a one-and-a-half point favorite on the road, [8:09] and we're going to back the Dream here over the Fever.”
ATL 108, IND 101 — The Atlanta Dream beat the Indiana Fever 108-101 on the road; margin +7 covers the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I love this nerf. We're 7-1. We're going to try to move to 8-1 on our nerfies. And you look at both pitchers and you're like, what? How can you pick a nerfie with Shane Bass, who's 4-6 with a 4-0-6 ERA, and Brian Wu, who's 5-5 with a 4-28 ERA? Well, got to look a little bit deeper. Last five outings for Shane Bass, how has he done? Well, he's gone at least five innings and given up two or less. 0-1 or 2 earned runs. So he's been on fire the last five games. Going to ride him here. And also Brian Wu, the difference is home and away. Away lit up like a Christmas tree the last three outings. In fact, last outing, five innings pitch, seven hits, seven earned runs. Before that, six and a third nine hits five runs before that four and two thirds six hits four and runs but all three of those were on the road last two games at home he has been great seven inning pitch two hits shut out and uh then also had a game where he pitched six innings and only gave up three hits in a shutout. So he's at home. It's a 4-0-5, 4-10 start. We're going to go with a hit this afternoon between the Baltimore Orioles and the Seattle Mariners. It's going to be a level three lock.”
BAL 0, SEA 3 — Seattle scored 3 runs in the bottom of the 1st (Young double, Emerson single) en route to a 3-0 shutout of Baltimore; 'no run in the 1st' busts (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with a blowout special. So Cleveland Guardians, Gavin Williams here, over six and a half strikeouts. Easy blowout special here.”
MIL 9, CLE 4 — Gavin Williams allowed just 4 strikeouts over 5.0 innings (7 H, 7 ER) as the Brewers beat the Guardians 9-4; under the 6.5 K line, busts (ESPN box score). (Gavin Williams: 4 K, 5.0 IP)
“[7:59] But this is Max Scherzer day here, and we're going to take the Boston Red Sox. [8:03] They are laying around 125 or so against the Blue Jays tonight at Fenway,”
BOS 0, TOR 3 — The Blue Jays shut out the Red Sox 3-0 at Fenway; Boston's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I think in England, you play the money line here, minus 140 in this 4 p.m. afternoon game it's going to be a level two level”
ENG 4, CRO 2 — England beat Croatia 4-2 in their World Cup Group Stage opener at AT&T Stadium (Kane 2, Bellingham, Rashford); the England moneyline wins (ESPN match report).
“So I'm going to take advantage of it here with Carson Benj. I think he's going to do a nice job and I think he goes over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs here. It's going to be my hidden gem.”
Carson Benge went 0-for-5 with 0 runs and 0 RBIs as Cincinnati beat the Mets 5-3 on 6/16/26 (ESPN box score). (Benge: 0 H, 0 R, 0 RBI (0 total))
“So we like Kaitlyn Clark tonight over eight and a half assists. It's at minus 102 at FanDuel.”
IND 113, TOR 91 — Caitlin Clark recorded 14 assists as Indiana beat Toronto 113-91 on 6/16/26; over 8.5 assists covers (ESPN box score). (Clark: 14 assists)
“We're going to go with the Murphy. No runs first inning here tonight in the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers game. It's going to be a level two luck.”
HOU 4, DET 2 — Both Houston and Detroit were scoreless in the 1st inning on 6/16/26; Astros won 4-2 (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go over one and a half hits, runs, RBI for Mike Trout. A blowout special to start a Monday.”
Mike Trout went 2-for-3 with a home run, 2 runs, and 1 RBI (5 total) as Arizona beat the Angels 4-3 on 6/15/26 (ESPN box score). (Trout: 2 H, 2 R, 1 RBI (5 total))
“Let's take the Pirates at plus 102 against the A's as our MLB. Wrong team favorite.”
ATH 11, PIT 2 — Oakland Athletics beat Pittsburgh Pirates 11-2 on 6/15/26; Pirates moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with no goal in the first half, plus 135 Uruguay and Saudi Arabia here. as my bet a little, win a whole lot.”
URU 1, KSA 1 — Saudi Arabia's Abdulelah Al-Amri scored in the 41st minute (first half) of a 1-1 draw with Uruguay on 6/15/26; a first-half goal busts the 'no goal in first half' pick (ESPN match report).
“Give me five points. I'll take the New York Knicks here. Wrong team favorite.”
NY 94, SA 90 — Knicks beat Spurs 94-90 in NBA Finals Game 5 on 6/13/26, a 4-point margin that falls short of -5; spread busts (ESPN box score).
“[5:03] right lee we lost with the tempo the other night and we're going to go back to them tonight as a [5:09] short dog they're getting two against the washington mystics these teams met in the”
WSH 86, TOR 85 — Washington Mystics beat Toronto Tempo 86-85 on 6/12/26; Tempo's 1-point loss covers the +2 spread (ESPN box score).
“the right side's perreira here we're gonna go the blowout special alex putan perreira here i think he gets the job done”
Ciryl Gane defeated Alex Pereira by TKO (punches) in Round 2 (1:27) to win the interim heavyweight title at UFC Freedom 250 on 6/14/26 (Wikipedia fight card, corroborated by ESPN schedule).
“We're going to go with another no-run first inning, another Nerfie, Tampa Bay, the LA Angels tonight.”
LAA 4, TB 3 — LA Angels scored 2 runs in the 1st inning (Mancini triple) against Tampa Bay on 6/12/26; Angels won 4-3 (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to lay the 240-260. We're going to go with Mexico to win this first match here as a blowout special.”
MEX 2, RSA 0 — Mexico beat South Africa 2-0 in their 2026 World Cup Group Stage opener on 6/11/26; moneyline covers (ESPN match report).
“We going to go back to the other side with the Vegas Golden Knights tonight They at plus 132 at FanDuel currently”
CAR 4, VGK 2 — Carolina Hurricanes beat Vegas Golden Knights 4-2 in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final on 6/11/26; Vegas moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go Diego Lopes here. He's going to beat Steve mean machine Garcia here as my blowout special UFC freedom to 50.”
Diego Lopes defeated Steve Garcia by KO (punches) in Round 2 (2:42) at UFC Freedom 250 on 6/14/26 (Wikipedia fight card, corroborated by ESPN schedule).
“I think the Knicks are going to get the job done tonight. I think the better team is going to win this game. I'm going all the way up. Level three, locked right out of the gate on a Wednesday.”
NY 107, SA 106 — Knicks beat Spurs 107-106 in NBA Finals Game 4 on 6/10/26; moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to go with a no-run first inning and see if we can keep this streak alive. We're going to go with a little one lock here, a Nerfee, L.A. Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates.”
PIT 9, LAD 8 — Both the Dodgers and Pirates were scoreless in the 1st inning on 6/10/26; Pirates won 9-8 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm taking the Reds here. Let's go to level two lock on a Tuesday.”
CIN 5, SD 3 — Reds beat Padres 5-3 in 11 innings on 6/9/26; moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“I like Carolina tonight, laying 115 on the road at Vegas.”
CAR 5, VGK 3 — Carolina Hurricanes beat Vegas Golden Knights 5-3 in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final on 6/9/26; moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“[15:05] So all we need is a combination of more than one and a half hits, runs, RBIs. [15:11] He has 14 homers, 48 RBIs on the season. [15:16] He is hitting .282, and that's good. [15:19] But what is scary good is his on-base percentage, .434. [15:25] It means on average he's getting on base almost 44% of the time. [15:29] He's been walked 61 times in 65 games. [15:34] He's scored 45 runs. [15:36] So a walk can help us if he scores a run. [15:41] I just think that he's the right guy at the right time here. [15:44] He's facing Robert Gasser, 0-2, 473. [15:48] A lefty, three starts, 0-2, 473. [15:52] Seven walks in 13 and a third innings, also giving up two home runs. [15:58] And just think that this guy is going to run into trouble here. [16:01] I don't see him lasting more than four or five innings here. [16:04] We're going to go with Nick Kurtz here for another blowout special on Tuesday.”
Nick Kurtz went 1-for-3 with a 1st-inning home run, 1 run, and 1 RBI (3 total) as Oakland beat Milwaukee 7-5 in Las Vegas on 6/9/26 (ESPN box score). (Kurtz: 1 H, 1 R, 1 RBI (3 total))
“I'm going to go with a lot. level two lock to start Monday. We're going over 216 and a half in game three tonight, New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs.”
SA 115, NY 111 — San Antonio beat New York 115-111 in NBA Finals Game 3 on 6/8/26; combined 226 points clears the 216.5 total (ESPN box score).
“But I just think here with this spot getting even at minus 102 at FanDuel for over two and a half, you know she's going to fire away. It's just about hitting it. She had her best game against Washington earlier this year. Let's go with that again. Kaitlin Clark over two and a half three-pointers made.”
Caitlin Clark made 1 of 3 three-point attempts in Indiana's 78-76 win over Washington on 6/8/26; falls short of the 2.5 line (ESPN box score). (Caitlin Clark: 1-3 3PT)
“So I'm going to take Mexico here plus money, plus 125 to advance to the knockout round. And I'm going with this one big here. Bet a little, win a lot here on Mexico, plus 125 to advance.”
Mexico won all three Group A matches (South Africa 2-0, South Korea 1-0, Czechia 3-0) to finish 1st with 9 points and advance to the Round of 32 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup (Wikipedia Group A page).
“So we're going to go the Nerf. No runs first inning here. It's going to be my hidden gem, San Francisco and Washington on Monday night.”
WSH 4, SF 3 — Both San Francisco and Washington were scoreless in the 1st inning (Nationals won 4-3) on 6/8/26 (ESPN box score).
“I think the better way to play this game is money line. San Antonio Spurs money line minus the 225. Going to be my luck of the day on Friday.”
SA 104, NY 105 — New York beat San Antonio 105-104 in NBA Finals Game 2 on 6/5/26; Spurs moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“This is a letdown spot for the Phillies. They're hosting the White Sox this evening, and we're going to take Chicago plus 154. That's what it's sitting at at FanDuel right now.”
PHI 8, CHW 6 — Philadelphia beat Chicago White Sox 8-6 on 6/5/26; White Sox moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“So I'm playing over one and a half hits, runs RBIs, Kyle Swarmer here. It's going to be my Friday night blowout special.”
Kyle Schwarber went 4-for-5 with 2 runs and 0 RBI (4H+2R+0RBI=6) as Philadelphia beat Chicago White Sox 8-6 on 6/5/26; clears the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (Kyle Schwarber: 4H, 2R, 0RBI (6 combined))
“Line's minus 135 here. So I'm going to go with a lock right out of the gate here today on a getaway Thursday. And I think the Dodgers take care of business. They're going to overwhelm here, Arizona. So just got to take them to win here. A level two lock, L.A. Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks.”
ARI 3, LAD 2 — Arizona beat LA 3-2 on 6/4/26 on a Ketel Marte ninth-inning solo homer; Dodgers moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“I don't recommend laying like 160. I don't go that far, but I like Carolina tonight in game two. No puck line, just straight up money line.”
CAR 4, VGK 3 — Carolina beat Vegas 4-3 in overtime in Stanley Cup Final Game 2 on 6/4/26; Hurricanes moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“So instead of picking a side, it's only minus 105. Will the fight go the distance? That's going to be my hidden gem here.”
Gabriel Bonfim defeated Belal Muhammad by unanimous decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) after the fight went the full 5 rounds at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim on 6/6/26 (Wikipedia event page).
“I'm going to take the four and a half points. Some places you can get five. Let's go with a level one lock and see if New York can pull the upset here or keep it close and make it a one possession game.”
SA 95, NY 105 — New York beat San Antonio 105-95 in NBA Finals Game 1 on 6/3/26; Knicks margin +10 covers the +4.5 line (ESPN box score).
“The A's won the opener last night, 2-1. And we're going to ride the A's here in the first five innings. They're minus 102 at FanDuel.”
Chicago Cubs led 4-2 through 5 innings before Oakland rallied to win 5-4 in 10 innings on 6/3/26; Athletics F5 moneyline loses (ESPN box score). (F5: CHC 4, ATH 2)
“So Bryce Thugnasty Mitchell is laying 135. It's the favorite. the take back with a challenger, Santiago Border Boy Luna is plus 115.”
Bryce Mitchell submitted Santiago Luna via arm-triangle choke at 4:52 of Round 3 at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim on 6/6/26 (Wikipedia event page).
“So I'm going to go over 5.5 rebounds here in game one for OJ Inanobi. It's going to be my blowout special.”
SA 95, NY 105 — OG Anunoby had 3 rebounds (0 OREB, 3 DREB) in New York's 105-95 win over San Antonio in NBA Finals Game 1 on 6/3/26; falls short of the 5.5 line (ESPN box score). (OG Anunoby: 3 rebounds)
“let's go with the under five and a half between the Golden Knights and the Hurricanes as our NHL hit and gem.”
VGK 5, CAR 4 — Vegas beat Carolina 5-4 in Stanley Cup Final Game 1 on 6/2/26; combined 9 goals is over the 5.5 total (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with another blowout special on a Tuesday. Bobby Wood Jr. here over one and a half hits, runs, and RBIs against the Cincinnati Reds tonight.”
Bobby Witt Jr. went 0-for-3 with 2 walks (0H+0R+0RBI=0) as Cincinnati beat Kansas City 4-3 in 10 innings on 6/2/26; falls short of the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (Bobby Witt Jr.: 0H, 0R, 0RBI)
“Let's go with James Wood here. Over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs. Right out of the gate on a Monday. Let's go for another winning week here. My blowout special.”
James Wood went 1-for-4 with 1 run scored and 0 RBI (1H+1R+0RBI=2) as Miami beat Washington 7-3 on 6/1/26; clears the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (James Wood: 1H, 1R, 0RBI (2 combined))
“[9:36] They are 10 and a half point favorites which is it I don want to go the overreaction term Actually it up to 12 and a half now But I like Seattle here getting 12 and a half against Dallas And I tell you what”
DAL 79, SEA 56 — Dallas beat Seattle 79-56; Storm margin -23 vs the +12.5 line, does not cover (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go over two and a half because it's plus money, plus 110. So we're going to go with bet a little, win a whole lot. Aaron Judge over two and a half hits runs RBIs tonight against the athletics”
NYY 8, OAK 2 — Aaron Judge went 1-for-4 with 1 run and 2 RBIs (4 total) as the Yankees beat Oakland 8-2, clearing the 2.5 line (ESPN box score). (Aaron Judge: 1H, 1R, 2RBI (4 total))
“You get Zach Wheeler at a plus money or, well, even money rate. Let's go with the Phillies against the Dodgers as our MLB blowout special.”
LAD 4, PHI 2 — Dodgers beat the Phillies 4-2 behind Justin Wrobleski's near no-hitter; Philadelphia loses outright (ESPN box score).
“I'm taking the Georgia Bulldogs 12-1 to win the College World Series. That's going to be my hidden gem.”
Georgia lost 4-3 to Oklahoma in the 2026 College World Series bracket semifinal; Oklahoma went on to win the national title over North Carolina (Wikipedia).
“we're gonna go here with our lock on friday a level two lock we're gonna go as zag nong zong here uh she gets the job done over angela over kill hill”
No fighter named Zhang Zhong appeared on the UFC Fight Night Macau (May 30, 2026) card; Angela Hill fought Xiong Jingnan instead (winning by unanimous decision), so the stated matchup never existed and cannot be settled (UFC.com official results).
“I'm taking San Antonio. I'm going to lay the three-and-a-half. It's going to be a level three lock.”
SA 118, OKC 91 — Spurs beat the Thunder 118-91 in WCF Game 6; San Antonio's +27 margin covers the -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Excuse me. Two and a half threes. We're gonna go under plus 128. That's what it's at at FanDuel. And here's the reason why. Caitlin Clark since the beginning of last year, Lee, on the road for three point shooting. Let's start with this year at L.A. one for seven. Last year, one for seven, oh, for six, one for ten, oh, for seven, oh, for five. That's two for thirty five from three point range. And now that's three of 42 from three-point range on the road, her last six road games. So with that being said, we're going to go under Caitlin Clark, two and a half three-pointers made against the Valkyries tonight, plus money.”
GS 90, IND 88 — Caitlin Clark made 2 of 6 three-pointers as the Valkyries beat the Fever 90-88, staying under the 2.5 line (ESPN box score). (Caitlin Clark: 2-6 3PM)
“So we're going to go over the one and a half hits runs RBIs for George Springer tonight of the Toronto Blue Jays. It's going to be my blowout special.”
TOR 2, BAL 1 — George Springer went 1-for-5 with 1 run and 0 RBIs (2 total) as Toronto beat Baltimore 2-1, clearing the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (George Springer: 1H, 1R, 0RBI (2 total))
“Jaron Duran, over one-and-a-half hits, runs, RBIs, my blowout special.”
ATL 0, BOS 8 — Jarren Duran went 4-for-5 with a home run, 2 runs, and 1 RBI (7 total) as Boston shut out Atlanta 8-0, clearing the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (Jarren Duran: 4H, 2R, 1RBI (7 total))
“So with all that being said, go under. Atlanta, Minnesota, first quarter, 41 and a half tonight at Target Center for our WNBA. Hidden gem.”
1Q: ATL 14, MIN 23 (37 combined) — 1st-quarter score was Lynx 23, Dream 14 (37 combined), under the 41.5 total; Minnesota went on to win 96-81 (ESPN box score).
“we're gonna go with kai asakura here minus anywhere from minus 250 to 270 over cameron smotherman it's gonna be a level two lock”
Kai Asakura defeated Cameron Smotherman by first-round KO/TKO (1:50) at UFC Fight Night Macau on May 30, 2026 (UFC.com official results).
“But getting four and a half points here with a better team, give me San Antonio. Wrong team favored. I taking the Spurs tonight”
OKC 127, SA 114 — Thunder beat the Spurs 127-114 in WCF Game 5; San Antonio's -13 margin fails to cover the +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“we going to go with the Minnesota Twins today as our MLB blowout special Minnesota laying 115”
MIN 5, CHW 3 — Twins beat the White Sox 5-3 in 11 innings on Brooks Lee's bases-loaded double; Minnesota wins outright (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to go with a blowout special go with my try to get hit my third straight uh nerfie let's go with uh a blowout special on another nerfie no run first inning minnesota twins chicago white socks”
MIN 5, CHW 3 — Twins and White Sox were both scoreless in the 1st inning; Minnesota won 5-3 in 11 innings (ESPN box score).
“i'm taking the knicks i'm laying the two points just like last week we had a day we gave out all three blowout specials it's gonna be another blowout special the new york knicks are gonna be in the finals lay the two and a half points tonight”
CLE 93, NY 130 — Knicks routed the Cavaliers 130-93 to complete an ECF sweep; New York's +37 margin covers the -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Let's go with Jesus Lizardo and the Phillies as a road favorite and the Phillies to beat the Padres in our MLB blowout special.”
PHI 3, SD 0 — Phillies shut out the Padres 3-0 behind Kyle Schwarber's home run and Jorge Luzardo's start; Philadelphia wins outright (ESPN box score).
“we're going to go over the one and a half hits runs rbis for julio rodriguez who is six for 15 with a homer against aaron sabali here i like it it's going to be our third low out special of the day”
SEA 9, OAK 2 — Julio Rodriguez went 1-for-4 with 0 runs and 0 RBIs (1 total) as Seattle beat Oakland 9-2, falling short of the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (Julio Rodriguez: 1H, 0R, 0RBI (1 total))
“So I going to say the wrong team is favored I like OKC tonight plus the two points”
OKC 123, SA 108 — Thunder beat Spurs 123-108 in WCF Game 3; OKC's +15 margin easily covers the +2 (ESPN box score).
“Let's go with Zach Neto, shortstop for the Angels, over one and a half hits, runs, and RBIs at plus 120 as our MLB. Hit and gem.”
TEX 6, LAA 9 — Zach Neto went 2-for-4 with 2 home runs, 2 runs, and 2 RBIs (6 total) as the Angels beat the Rangers 9-6, clearing the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (Zach Neto: 2H, 2R, 2RBI (6 total))
“I'm going to go with my Nerfie here on Cleveland and Philadelphia on Friday night. It's going to be another hidden gem.”
CLE 1, PHI 0 — Guardians and Phillies were both scoreless through the 1st inning; Cleveland won 1-0 on Kyle Manzardo's 9th-inning pinch-hit homer (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to keep riding the Knicks here. I might have gotten lucky in the last game, but this game, I don't think they're going to need luck. I'm going to say it's going to be a blowout special tonight, again in the garden here for the New York Knicks.”
NY 109, CLE 93 — New York Knicks beat Cleveland Cavaliers 109-93 in ECF Game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead (Josh Hart 26 pts); Knicks ML cashes (ESPN).
“Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 11 of 18 against Carlos Rodon in his career. Three doubles, two homers, seven RBIs, and this number, zero strikeouts and 18 at-bats. So that's got to mean something. So we're going to go with Vlad tonight to go over one and a half hits, runs, and RBIs, minus 130 as our MLB blowout special.”
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-2 with a run scored and 2 walks (1H+1R+0RBI=2) in Toronto's 2-0 win over New York on 5/21/26, clearing the over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs line (ESPN box score). (Guerrero Jr. 1H+1R+0RBI)
“So I'm going to keep riding him here, even though he's facing a tough pitcher. over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs. Nick Kurtz, yeah, your finger might be tired from hitting that button here.”
Nick Kurtz went 1-for-3 with a walk, scoring the go-ahead run on a Zack Gelof 10th-inning fielder's-choice groundout and driving in a run (1H+1R+1RBI=3) as Oakland beat the Angels 3-2 (ESPN box score). (Kurtz 1H+1R+1RBI)
“I'm going with a lock. Let's go with a level two lock tonight. I feel strong about it. OKC, lay the six and a half, level two lock.”
OKC 122, SA 113 — Oklahoma City Thunder beat San Antonio Spurs 122-113 in West Finals Game 2 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30 pts); OKC -6.5 covers by a 9-point margin (ESPN).
“Let's get the plus 130 minus a half goal in the first period. This year, the three results in the first period, Colorado led 1-0. Vegas led 1-0. It was a tie. So you had nothing really you could take from that. But I think Colorado jumps out to a good start. Let's go with them. First period minus a half as our NHL blowout special.”
Game 1 of the West Final was scoreless 0-0 after the 1st period (Vegas scored twice in the 2nd); Colorado did not lead after the 1st, so Colorado -0.5 (1st period) lost. Vegas went on to win 4-2 (ESPN). (1st period: VGK 0, COL 0)
“No runs first inning in the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis game tonight. It's going to be my hidden gem.”
Neither Pittsburgh nor St. Louis scored in the 1st inning on 5/20/26 (Pirates' first run came on a Horwitz HR in the 2nd); Pirates won 7-0 (ESPN box score). (1st inning: PIT 0, STL 0)
“I going to lay the seven points here We not going to call it a mortal lock but we definitely going to go with the Knicks tonight Let go with a level one lock here for the New York Knicks tonight.”
NY 115, CLE 104 — New York Knicks beat Cleveland Cavaliers 115-104 in overtime of ECF Game 1, rallying from a 22-point 4th-quarter deficit; Knicks -7 covers by an 11-point margin (ESPN).
“Let's go with the under of 170 and a half between the tempo and the mercury for our WNBA.”
TOR 98, PHX 90 — Toronto Tempo beat Phoenix Mercury 98-90, a combined 188 points; under 170.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“So blowout special here. Juan Soto over one hits run RBIs today on Tuesday.”
Juan Soto went 2-for-4 with a 7th-inning solo homer, 2 runs and 1 RBI (2H+2R+1RBI=5) as Washington beat New York 9-6 on 5/19/26, clearing the over 1.0 hits+runs+RBIs line (ESPN box score). (Soto 2H+2R+1RBI)
“Let's take the Montreal Canadiens, game seven, even money to advance and face the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Final. That is our NHL wrong team favorite.”
MTL 3, BUF 2 — Montreal Canadiens beat Buffalo Sabres 3-2 in overtime of Game 7 (Alex Newhook OT winner) to win the East 2nd Round series 4-3; Canadiens ML cashes (ESPN).
“And I think L.A. did accrues here over one and a half hits runs RBIs here. It's going to be my blowout special on a Monday.”
Elly De La Cruz went 0-for-3 with a walk (0H+0R+0RBI) as Philadelphia beat Cincinnati 5-4; over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs busts (ESPN box score). (De La Cruz 0H+0R+0RBI)
“We're going to go with a level two lock here. I like the San Antonio Spurs to end the series,”
SA 139, MIN 109 — San Antonio Spurs beat Minnesota Timberwolves 139-109 in Game 6 to close out the West Semifinals series 4-2; Spurs ML cashes (ESPN).
“we're going to go with the Baltimore Orioles in the first five. They are at minus a half. It's at minus 105 at FanDuel, so you get some good value there to hope that they get through the first five innings and take the lead.”
Washington scored in the 4th (sac fly) and led 1-0 through 5 innings while Baltimore was scoreless through 5, so Orioles -0.5 F5 lost; Nationals went on to win 3-2 (ESPN box score). (F5: WSH 1, BAL 0)
“So we're going to go with a hidden gem UFC fight night in Las Vegas Arnold Almighty Allen here Takes a decision, gets the win And a hidden gem over Costa”
Arnold Allen defeated Melquizael Costa by unanimous decision (49-46, 50-45, 50-45) at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa in Las Vegas on 5/16/26 (ESPN).
“but we're going to take Kansas City as a minus-138 road favorite here to avoid the sweep.”
CHW 6, KC 2 — Chicago White Sox beat Kansas City Royals 6-2; Royals ML busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“So we're going to go with a blowout special. Shea Langeleers here, leadoff hitter for the athletics here. He gets over the one and a half total, I think, pretty early here. It's going to be my blowout special.”
Shea Langeliers went 3-for-5 with 2 RBIs (0R, 3H+0R+2RBI=5) in Oakland's 5-4 loss at St. Louis on 5/14/26, clearing the 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs line (ESPN box score). (Langeliers 3H+0R+2RBI)
“So I like Detroit at home here. We're going to go all the way up tonight. Level three lock on a Wednesday to get over the hump here and get back on track.”
DET 113, CLE 117 (OT) — Cleveland beat Detroit 117-113 in overtime in Game 5 (James Harden 30 pts); the Pistons moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“but we're going to go with the Houston Astros here as a home dog. They are at plus one Oh nine and, uh, not bad here at home. So we're going to back them against the Seattle Mariners tonight as our first MLB hit a gem.”
HOU 4, SEA 3 (10 innings) — Houston beat Seattle 4-3 in 10 innings on a Zach Cole walk-off RBI single, so the Astros moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“So I like Xavier Edwards here, minus 140 here, over one and a half. Hits, runs, RBIs here. It's going to be my Wednesday hidden gem.”
MIA 9, MIN 5 — Xavier Edwards doubled, tripled, scored 3 runs and drove in 1 (2 H + 3 R + 1 RBI = 6) for Miami in a 9-5 win over Minnesota, clearing the 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs line (ESPN box score). (Xavier Edwards: 2 H (1 2B, 1 3B), 3 R, 1 RBI)
“I'm taking 10 and a half points here. Wrong team favored. I'm taking the T-Wolves tonight in San Antonio.”
SA 126, MIN 97 — San Antonio beat Minnesota 126-97 in Game 5 (Wembanyama 27 pts/17 reb); the Timberwolves lost by 29, failing to cover +10.5 (ESPN box score).
“But we're going to take the defending American League champions tonight, and we're going to back the Toronto Blue Jays. They are a short underdog here against Tampa Bay as our MLB hidden gem. And right now it's around a plus 105 price.”
TOR 6, TB 7 (10 innings) — Tampa Bay beat Toronto 7-6 in 10 innings on a Taylor Walls walk-off RBI single, so the Blue Jays moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a blowout special. Matt Olsen over 1.5 hits, runs, RBIs tonight in their game at home against the Chicago Cubs.”
ATL 5, CHC 2 — Matt Olson singled home a run (1 hit, 0 runs, 1 RBI = 2) for Atlanta in a 5-2 win over the Cubs, clearing the 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs line (ESPN box score). (Matt Olson: 1 H, 0 R, 1 RBI)
“I like Detroit here. We're going to go with the wrong team favorite to start off on Monday.”
CLE 112, DET 103 — Cleveland beat Detroit 112-103 in Game 4 (Donovan Mitchell 43 pts), so the Pistons moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Let's take Colorado, first period, minus a half goal to lead after the first, plus 158 at FanDuel as our NHL, bet a little, win a whole lot.”
MIN 1, COL 0 (1st period); COL 5, MIN 2 (final) — Minnesota's Danila Yurov scored a power-play goal at 9:46 of the 1st period of Game 4, and Colorado did not score in the opening frame, so Colorado did not lead after the 1st (ESPN box score).
“I like said, he's only shooting 34% on threes this year. And I also doubt that the Timberwolves are going to have anywhere close to 22 turnovers like they had in the last game. They had some just foolish passes going for easy layups the other way. So I think they'll be focused. I think they'll be able to just operate on offense much, much better. They weren't doing a bad job in the half fourth set. So like I said, that crowd's going to be up and ready to go. And I think they're going to feed off it here. I'm taking the five points here. We're going to go with a level two lock to end the week here on Friday.”
SA 115, MIN 108 — San Antonio beat Minnesota 115-108 in Game 3 (Wembanyama 39 pts/15 reb); the Timberwolves lost by 7, failing to cover +5 (ESPN box score).
“And we're going to take the Montreal Canadiens tonight, full game for the game two win to try to even up the series at one apiece. Right now it's around plus 115, the Canadians.”
BUF 1, MTL 5 — Montreal beat Buffalo 5-1 in Game 2 (Alex Newhook 2 goals), so the Canadiens moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“So Chase Dollinger we going to go over four and a half strikeouts plus 165 Bet a little Went a whole lot”
PHI 7, COL 9 (11 innings) — Chase Dollander struck out 5 over 5.2 innings for Colorado in a 9-7 (11-inning) win over Philadelphia, clearing the 4.5-strikeout line (ESPN box score). (Chase Dollander: 5 strikeouts)
“Grant Dawson, he wins big time here over Matuj Rebekki.”
Grant Dawson submitted Mateusz Rebecki in round 3 (4:42) at UFC 328, winning outright (UFC.com official result).
“So I'm going to take the 3.5 points. wrong team favored Cleveland Cavaliers tonight straight up over the Detroit Pistons”
DET 107, CLE 97 — Detroit beat Cleveland 107-97 in Game 2 (Cade Cunningham 25 pts/10 ast); the Cavaliers lost by 10, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“So we going to take the A tonight against the Phillies right now plus 108 at FanDuel”
PHI 1, ATH 12 — The Athletics routed the Phillies 12-1 (J.T. Ginn 8 strong innings, Zack Gelof HR/3B/3 RBI), so the Athletics moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with Bobby Witt. Let's take a shot here. plus 500 every 50 bucks you bet on this returns 250 dollars if he hits a dinger so bet a little win a whole lot on bobby witt jr a home run tonight in their game against the cleveland guardians this afternoon”
Bobby Witt Jr. went 4-for-4 with a home run (407 ft, 7th inning) for Kansas City in Cleveland's 8-5 win, hitting the home run the prop required (ESPN box score). (Bobby Witt Jr.: 4-for-4, 1 HR)
“So I'm going to go there and judge here over one and a half bases here. It's going to be right out of the gate. Level three lock here on a Wednesday.”
Aaron Judge went 1-for-4 with a solo home run (399 ft) for the Yankees, good for 4 total bases, clearing the 1.5-total-bases line in Texas's 6-1 win (ESPN box score). (Aaron Judge: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 4 total bases)
“So let's go with the Anaheim Ducks in the first period against Vegas as our NHL hit and gem. I like this selection of yours a lot. I think I'm going to hammer it here. I like the coaching, the adjustments that Anaheim makes. And they beat a really good Edmonton team that was at full strength. A lot of people knew about their injuries early, but they beat Edmonton, and they were clearly the better team. So I think they got a shot here to start off quickly and maybe even hold on and win the game. Correction on my part. At FanDuel, it's a plus 116.”
0-0 (1st period); ANA 3, VGK 1 (final) — The 1st period of Anaheim at Vegas (Game 2) ended scoreless 0-0 (Ducks won the full game 3-1 on 2nd/3rd-period goals); Anaheim did not win the 1st period outright, so the 1st-period moneyline pushes (ESPN box score).
“Line opened up 8.5. It's now moved up to 9.5. I think the line's going to close 10, 10.5, 11. So get on it right now before it gets to 10 or higher here. This is going to be my blowout special. San Antonio Spurs big time tonight over the Minnesota Timberwolves.”
SA 133, MIN 95 — San Antonio beat Minnesota 133-95 (Wembanyama 19 pts, 15 reb) in Game 2, a 38-point margin that easily covers Spurs -9.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm laying the 15 and a half points, double, triple blowout special here. I think OKC wins this game by 22 to 25 points over the L.A. Lakers blowout special on Tuesday.”
OKC 108, LAL 90 — Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Los Angeles Lakers 108-90 (margin +18), covering the -15.5 spread (ESPN).
“We're going to take the Texas Rangers as our MLB wrong team favorites and I plus 105 against the Yankees.”
NYY 7, TEX 4 — New York Yankees beat the Texas Rangers 7-4 (Jazz Chisholm Jr. go-ahead homer); Rangers moneyline busts (ESPN).
“I think he's going to go under four and a half strikeouts here. Wrong player favorite, wrong team favorite, whatever you want to call it here, under the strikeout total for Luis Severino on Tuesday night.”
PHI 9, ATH 1 — Luis Severino struck out 3 over 5.0 IP as the Phillies beat the Athletics 9-1; under 4.5 strikeouts covers (ESPN boxscore). (Luis Severino: 3 strikeouts (5.0 IP))
“So I'm going to take the seven and a half points. I wouldn't be shocked if we get to like game five and seven. This could be a game seven series that the line ends up like four and a half, five points. I just think it's too much. Let's take advantage of it here. Wrong team favorite. Philadelphia 76 plus the points tonight. They take the money.”
NY 137, PHI 98 — Knicks blew out the 76ers 137-98 (margin -39 for Philadelphia), well outside the +7.5 spread (ESPN).
“So let's take the Angels in the first five innings minus a half run. You're laying 120 against the White Sox as our MLB blowout special.”
White Sox led the Angels 5-0 through 5 innings (final 6-0); Angels -0.5 in the first 5 innings needed an outright F5 win and lost it (ESPN boxscore). (F5: CHW 5, LAA 0 (final: CHW 6, LAA 0))
“So we're going to go over five and a half strikeouts here for Logan Gilbert tonight. It's going to be another blowout special.”
SEA 5, ATL 4 — Logan Gilbert struck out 4 over 6.0 IP as the Mariners beat the Braves 5-4; over 5.5 strikeouts busts (ESPN boxscore). (Logan Gilbert: 4 strikeouts (6.0 IP))
“So let's go with, how about it, wrong team favored, L.A. Lakers. Pull off the win here straight up over Houston.”
LAL 98, HOU 78 — Los Angeles Lakers beat the Houston Rockets 98-78 to close out the series 4-2; moneyline covers (ESPN).
“We're going to take the Pittsburgh Pirates minus 135 against the Cincinnati Reds tonight.”
PIT 9, CIN 1 — Pittsburgh Pirates beat the Cincinnati Reds 9-1 (Henry Davis 2 HR, Mitch Keller 7 strong IP); moneyline covers (ESPN).
“I'm going to take Renegade At 5-1 Win, place, and show”
Golden Tempo won the 2026 Kentucky Derby; Renegade finished 2nd, by a neck, missing the win leg but cashing the place and show portions of the win/place/show bet (Wikipedia). (Win: lost (Renegade finished 2nd); Place: cashed; Show: cashed)
“Getting two and a half points here, this should be like a pick-em. Wrong team favorite. Atlanta Hawks pull off the small upset at home tonight.”
NY 140, ATL 89 — Knicks blew out the Hawks 140-89 (margin -51 for Atlanta), well outside the +2.5 spread (ESPN).
“I haven given out a lot of strikeout props here on the show but I like one today And it is Toronto Kevin Gosman under five and a half And you can get that at minus 114 at FanDuel”
MIN 7, TOR 1 — Kevin Gausman struck out 2 over 5.2 IP as the Twins beat the Blue Jays 7-1; under 5.5 strikeouts covers (ESPN boxscore). (Kevin Gausman: 2 strikeouts (5.2 IP))
“We're going to go to the level three lock all the way up on a Wednesday here. Cleveland, blowout over Toronto.”
CLE 125, TOR 120 — Cleveland Cavaliers beat Toronto Raptors 125-120; moneyline covers (ESPN).
“we're going to take Montreal in the first period, plus 116 at FanDuel.”
Canadiens led Tampa Bay 1-0 after the 1st period and went on to win 3-2 (Texier's 3rd-period goal), taking a 3-2 series lead (ESPN boxscore). (1st period: Canadiens 1, Lightning 0 (final: Canadiens 3, Lightning 2))
“You know, if he was hot, this line might be minus 120, minus 130, over two and a half hits, runs, and RBIs, but it's plus 125. So we're going to go with bet a little, win a whole lot. Nick Hurts here, he's going over that two and a half number tonight here.”
OAK 5, KC 2 — Nick Kurtz went 2-for-4 with an RBI double (2 H, 0 R, 1 RBI = 3 total) as the Athletics beat the Royals 5-2; clears the 2.5 over (ESPN boxscore). (Nick Kurtz: 2 H, 0 R, 1 RBI (3 total))
“We'll go with the San Antonio Spurs minus the 12 tonight.”
SA 114, POR 95 — San Antonio Spurs won 114-95 (margin +19), covering the -12 spread (ESPN).
“you get a plus 120. Let go with the Boston Bruins tonight in the first period against the Buffalo Sabres as our NHL Hit and gem”
Sabres led 1-0 after the 1st period (Rasmus Dahlin PP goal at 3:35) at Buffalo; Bruins tied it in the 2nd and won 2-1 in OT on a David Pastrnak goal, but did not win the 1st period (ESPN boxscore). (1st period: Sabres 1, Bruins 0 (final: Bruins 2, Sabres 1 OT))
“We going to go under eight total runs here in this game minus 120, hidden gem.”
CHW 5, LAA 2 — White Sox beat Angels 5-2 (combined 7 runs), under 8 covers (ESPN).
“So I'm going to play the over two and a half hits, runs, RBIs tonight for Sal Stewart, who comes from the same high school as A-Rod, Westminster High School here in Miami, Florida, about five minutes from my house.”
CIN 7, COL 2 — Sal Stewart went 1-for-4 with a double, 1 run, 0 RBI (2 total) as the Reds beat the Rockies 7-2 at Great American Ball Park; under 2.5 hits+runs+RBIs (ESPN boxscore). (Sal Stewart: 1 H, 1 R, 0 RBI (2 total))
“OKC's defense is underrated, but I think that you're going to see Phoenix come out with just a high level of intensity, and home crowd's going to feed in it. And I think that's what Devin Booker was looking to accomplish, get his team fired up, get the crowd fired up. Yeah, they're going to get swept in the next game in OKC. But I'm taking the 11 points.”
OKC 131, PHX 122 — Thunder beat Suns 131-122 (Phoenix margin -9), covering the +11 spread (ESPN box score).
“And I think not only is the wrong team favored, I'm going to sprinkle some money line. It's now plus 375. This line can go up to 11.5-12. And we can see the money line go up to plus 400. Play some Phoenix on the money line here I think they have a real chance to take this game down to the wire maybe even pull off the upset”
OKC 131, PHX 122 — Suns lost to the Thunder 131-122, busting the Phoenix moneyline (ESPN box score).
“Tonight we're going to take the Penguins' first period. Minus 130, and make it simple here.”
PIT 3, PHI 2 — Penguins led Philadelphia 1-0 after the 1st period of Game 5, going on to win 3-2 (ESPN box score).
“Major League Baseball. But Lee, what do you like to do with Ranger Suarez taking the mound as K-Prop against Toronto? All right. So obviously we know about Boston's struggles and Ranger Suarez hasn't been great either this year. One and two so far with a four ERA. 27 innings pitched, just 19 strikeouts. And that's down from what he normally does. If you look at the projections and what he's done historically over the last three years. And his velocity is not really down at all. His movement looks pretty much the same. Last three years, 157 innings pitched, 151 strikeouts. Year before that, 150 and 145 and then 125 and 119. So if you were to take the 27 innings pitched and it was last year, the year before, or the year before that, he would probably have 25 or 26 strikeouts now. So I think he's going to be motivated here, as are most pitchers and most players. Once you have a managerial change, they don't want to lose their slot in the rotation, and they want to solidify that. So I think he's going to come out hot, and he's going to be ready to go tonight, facing a Toronto team that three-game series against Cleveland, 26 innings they played where they batted, 28 strikeouts over one a game here. The line is over four and a half strikeouts plus 130.”
BOS 5, TOR 0 — Ranger Suarez struck out 10 (8.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R) as Boston shut out Toronto 5-0, clearing the over 4.5 strikeouts (ESPN box score). (Ranger Suarez: 10 strikeouts)
“You can get a plus 110, plus 115, over two and a half hits, runs, RBIs. Aaron Judge in Houston tonight. I think he's going to call the court to order here. Let's go with Aaron Judge here. Bet a little, win a whole lot, over two and a half hits, runs, RBIs tonight.”
NYY 12, HOU 4 — Aaron Judge went 0-for-2 with 3 walks and 0 runs, 0 hits, 0 RBIs as the Yankees beat Houston 12-4; falls short of the over 2.5 hits+runs+RBIs (ESPN box score). (Aaron Judge: 0 H, 0 R, 0 RBI)
“And I'm going to take the Red Sox here as our wrong team favorite. They're listed at plus 105.”
BAL 10, BOS 3 — Orioles beat Red Sox 10-3, busting the Boston moneyline (ESPN box score).
“So the line was two or three or four points. Yeah, I might look at Boston, but seven and a half points is a lot. I think this game's going down to the wire. Don't be surprised if the Sixers win the game outright here. We're going to go with a lock. Yep, a level three lock all the way up on a Friday. Philadelphia 76ers plus the points tonight against Boston.”
BOS 108, PHI 100 — Celtics beat 76ers 108-100 (Philadelphia margin -8), missing the +7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“And we're going to go with the Bruins' first period against the Sabres. And it's at pretty much even money tonight.”
BUF 3, BOS 1 — Bruins and Sabres were tied 0-0 after the 1st period of Game 3; Buffalo won the game 3-1. First-period moneyline is 3-way, so the tie loses the Bruins ML bet (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the Funkmaster, my third cousin here, Al Jermaine, Funkmaster Sterling here, plus 110, wrong fighter favorite.”
Aljamain Sterling defeated Youssef Zalal by unanimous decision (49-45, 49-45, 49-45) at UFC Fight Night 274 (UFC Vegas 116) on April 25, 2026, winning the moneyline (Wikipedia, UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal).
“I think he goes later than seven so I'm going to go over seven and a half minus 125 for carnell tate from ohio state here”
Carnell Tate was drafted 4th overall in the 2026 NFL Draft by the Tennessee Titans, well under the over-7.5 draft-position line (Wikipedia 2026 NFL Draft selections, sourced from official draft results).
“I'm laying the eight and a half here. Blowout special. Detroit Pistons big tonight over the Orlando Magic.”
DET 98, ORL 83 — Pistons beat Magic 98-83 (margin +15), covering the -8.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Let's take Pittsburgh here laying 105 against Texas as our MLB.”
PIT 8, TEX 4 — Pirates beat Rangers 8-4, covering the Pittsburgh moneyline (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to take Ty Simpson here, minus 200 here, that he will get drafted in the first round.”
Ty Simpson was drafted 13th overall in Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft by the Los Angeles Rams, clearing the round-1 futures bet (Wikipedia 2026 NFL Draft selections, sourced from official draft results).
“14.5 points is way too much. I'm going to take the Philadelphia 76ers.”
PHI 111, BOS 97 — 76ers beat Celtics 111-97 (margin +14), covering the +14.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Let's back the Phillies against the Cubs to snap their losing streak, to snap Chicago's winning streak.”
CHC 7, PHI 4 — Cubs beat Phillies 7-4, busting the Phillies moneyline (ESPN box score).
“gonna score a run at least and uh drive in one and get at least one hit so we're gonna go over two and a half here hits runs rbis for bobby witt jr i think he's gonna he's gonna have an absolute blowout special game.”
KC 6, BAL 5 — Bobby Witt Jr. went 1-for-3 with 0 runs and 1 RBI (1 H + 0 R + 1 RBI = 2 total) as Kansas City beat Baltimore 6-5; falls short of the over 2.5 hits+runs+RBIs (ESPN box score). (Bobby Witt Jr.: 1 H, 0 R, 1 RBI)
“I'm going to go with the Minnesota Timberwolves plus the seven.”
MIN 119, DEN 114 — Timberwolves beat Nuggets 119-114 (margin +5), covering the +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're going to take the Penguins minus 140 first period as our NHL blowout special.”
PIT 0, PHI 3 — Penguins and Flyers were tied 0-0 after the 1st period; Philadelphia won the game 3-0. First-period moneyline is 3-way, so the tie loses the Penguins ML bet (ESPN box score).
“Under five and a half strikeouts here tonight. For Seattle pitcher here, Emerson Hancock out of Georgia.”
ATH 6, SEA 4 — Emerson Hancock struck out 3 batters (5.0 IP) as Oakland beat Seattle 6-4, clearing the under 5.5 strikeouts (ESPN box score). (Emerson Hancock: 3 strikeouts)
“I say you lay the 300, blowout special, Edmonton Oilers.”
EDM 6, VAN 1 — Oilers beat Canucks 6-1; Edmonton's moneyline covers (ESPN).
“Let's take the St. Louis Blues as our NHL.”
UTA 3, STL 5 — Blues beat the Mammoth 5-3; St. Louis's moneyline covers (ESPN).
“Give me the matrix here, Kyler Phillips, plus 125, wrong fighter favorite.”
Charles Jourdain defeated Kyler Phillips via unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott in Winnipeg; the fight was named Fight of the Night, but Phillips's moneyline loses (Wikipedia, sourced to official UFC results).
“I'm going to take the Orlando Magic here. I'm going to take the two points here. Wrong team favorite.”
PHI 109, ORL 97 — 76ers beat Magic 109-97 in the Play-In game; Orlando's -12 margin busts the +2 spread (ESPN).
“Let's go with the New York Rangers in the first period tonight against Tampa Bay as our NHL.”
NYR 4, TB 2 (1st period: 1-0) — Rangers led Tampa Bay 1-0 after the 1st period en route to a 4-2 win (ESPN).
“I'm going to lay the five-and-a-half here. Blowout special. Clippers, big time.”
LAC 121, GS 126 — Warriors beat Clippers 126-121; LA's -5 margin falls just short of the -5.5 spread (ESPN).
“no chance no way here I'm gonna lay the five and a half here This is going to be my lock of the day level two lock Charlotte Hornets”
CHA 127, MIA 126 — Hornets beat Heat 127-126 in overtime in the Play-In game; Charlotte's +1 margin busts the -5.5 spread (ESPN).
“Let's take the New York Mets in the first five innings against the Dodgers as our MLB hit and gem. It may not take two runs It might just take one run You can do some other things They do have some hitters that can you know sacrifice You got to manufacture runs steal a base So I expect them to try to do something to manufacture a run early So I like it plus 153.”
NYM 1, LAD 2 (F5: 1-1) — Mets and Dodgers were tied 1-1 through 5 innings (LA went on to win 2-1 on an 8th-inning single); the F5 moneyline pushes on a tie (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a blowout special here. Gunnar Henderson over two and a half hits, runs, RBIs.”
Gunnar Henderson went 0-for-5 with no runs and no RBIs (0 total) against Arizona, well under the 2.5 hits+runs+RBIs line (ESPN box score). (Henderson 0-for-5, 0 R, 0 RBI)
“So we're going to go with the polar bear, Pete Alonzo, over one and a half hits, runs, and RBIs tonight. It's going to be a blowout special.”
Pete Alonso went 2-for-3 with a 2-run homer (2 H, 2 R, 2 RBI = 6 combined) for Baltimore in a 9-7 win over Arizona, clearing the 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs line (ESPN box score). (Alonso 2 H, 2 R, 2 RBI)
“But I do like the Edmonton Oilers here in the first period, laying about 108 at FanDuel.”
EDM 1, COL 2 (SO) — Oilers and Avalanche were scoreless 0-0 through the 1st period (Colorado won 2-1 in a shootout); NHL 1st-period moneyline is a 3-way market and a tie is a separate outcome from either team winning the period, so Edmonton's 1st-period moneyline does not win (ESPN).
“So we're the Atlanta Hawks plus 290 to plus 300. Bet a little. Win a whole lot.”
NYK 140, ATL 89 — Knicks beat Hawks 4-2 in the first round, clinching with a 140-89 Game 6 win on April 30, 2026 (ESPN recap).
“So I'm going to take the Denver Nuggets. Let's lay the 11 and a half, 12 points. It's going to be a blowout special.”
DEN 127, OKC 107 — Nuggets beat Thunder 127-107; Denver's +20 margin covers the -12 spread (ESPN).
“we're going to take the Cleveland Guardians in this one. We're going to take them for a full game and they're plus 115 or so at FanDuel, it's plus 122 so you're getting a better price there.”
ATL 11, CLE 5 — Braves beat Guardians 11-5; Cleveland's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“i just think cock it's for real here you can get them to plus money plus 110 get them before it's Pick him maybe by fight time tomorrow night here on the main card. So we're going to go with the wrong fighter favorite here, Josh Hockett.”
Curtis Blaydes defeated Josh Hokit (transcribed "Hockett") via unanimous decision (29-28 x3) in the UFC 327 co-main event, the card's Fight of the Night; Hokit's moneyline busts (ESPN).
“So we're going to take the Baltimore Orioles here. Money line, minus 125.”
BAL 3, SF 6 — Giants beat Orioles 6-3; Baltimore's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to lay the four and a half points here. So I think it's all about roster management and who's going to play and how long. And I think that Golden State's deeper. They've been playing without Steph, even if he doesn't play for a long time now. I know he came back and played the last game. I think they grabbed the lead and they win this game by 15, 20 points. I'm laying the four and a half. It's going to be a level two lock.”
GS 103, LAL 119 — Lakers beat Warriors 119-103; Golden State lost outright and the margin (-16) busts the -4.5 spread (ESPN).
“We're going to go with the total in the Penguins-Devils game tonight in New Jersey. We're going to go under one and a half, and that's actually a plus money, around plus 115 in this one.”
NJ 2, PIT 5 — Penguins beat Devils 5-2; combined 7 goals busts the under 1.5 total (ESPN).
“So not getting like a price of plus $450, $650, plus $850 for every $100 you bet. You bet $10. The return is $85. $100 return is $850. Take a shot here. We're going to go with bet a little, win a lot. Jack Caglione, I think he's going to hit his first home run tonight.”
White Sox shut out the Royals 2-0; Jac Caglianone (transcribed "Jack Caglione") went 0-for-2 with no home run (ESPN box score). (Caglianone 0-2, 0 HR)
“So I'm going to take Kevin Trailblazer Holland here, plus 105.”
Kevin Holland defeated Randy Brown via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) on the UFC 327 prelim card (ESPN).
“We're going to take the Buffalo Sabres' first period minus a half, and that at FanDuel is around plus 150.”
Sabres 5, Rangers 3 — Sabres outscored the Rangers 2-1 in the 1st period, covering Buffalo -0.5, en route to a 5-3 win (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to go Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies, over one and a half hits, runs, and RBIs, minus 145.”
Giants 5, Phillies 0 — Kyle Schwarber went 1-for-2 with a walk (0 R, 1 H, 0 RBI = 1 total) in the Phillies' 5-0 loss to the Giants, under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs (ESPN box score). (Kyle Schwarber: 1 H, 0 R, 0 RBI (1 total))
“but I just don't see more than five and a half strikeouts. We're going to go with the wrong player favorite here. Andrew Abbott, pitcher for Cincinnati Reds, under five and a half strikeouts.”
Reds 6, Marlins 3 — Andrew Abbott recorded 2 strikeouts in 5.1 IP as the Reds beat the Marlins 6-3 in 10 innings, well under 5.5 strikeouts (ESPN box score). (Andrew Abbott: 2 strikeouts)
“So with all that being said, we're going to take the Boston Bruins in the first period right now at FanDuel. They're at plus 132.”
Hurricanes 6, Bruins 5 (OT) — Bruins led Hurricanes 3-2 after the 1st period, covering the Boston 1st-period moneyline, though Carolina came back to win 6-5 in OT (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go over 239.5 total points. It's going to be a blowout special.”
Raptors 121, Heat 95 — Raptors beat the Heat 121-95; combined 216 points falls short of the 239.5 total (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go to the hidden gem. Chris Sale over seven and a half strikeouts. He gets the job done as we lead off on Monday.”
Angels 6, Braves 2 — Chris Sale went 4.0 IP with 7 strikeouts in the Braves' 6-2 loss to the Angels, falling short of over 7.5 strikeouts (ESPN box score). (Chris Sale: 7 strikeouts)
“They are hosting the Cincinnati Reds, and the Marlins are laying 130. We're going to take the Marlins' full game against the Reds as our blowout special.”
Reds 2, Marlins 0 — Reds shut out the Marlins 2-0; Miami moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Cleveland, they want to keep moving up and protect their spot in the playoff, want to get home court advantage as long as possible, play the 14 and a half, even though it's at Memphis, there might be four or 5,000 fans.”
Cavaliers 142, Grizzlies 126 — Cavaliers beat Grizzlies 142-126, a 16-point margin that covers Cleveland -14.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a level three lock all the way up on the UConn Huskies. And how about this? We won six of the last seven Super Bowls against the spread, six of the last seven national championships in college football, six of the last seven in March Madness in the final game. Can I make it seven out of eight tonight? We're going to find out. Going with UConn plus the seven.”
Michigan 69, UConn 63 — Michigan beat UConn 69-63 to win the NCAA National Championship; UConn lost by 6, covering +7 (ESPN box score).
“But I just think that Michigan has a couple players that, you know, might be able to knock down a shot. And maybe the better coach. Who knows? I'm pulling away, not winning big, not by double digits. This will be the first non win by either team But I bet she can win in this game by five to eight points it going to be a level three lock all the way up the wildcats have won 13 in a row”
Michigan 91, Arizona 73 — Michigan beat Arizona 91-73 in the NCAA Tournament Final Four; Michigan moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“We're going to take the A's in the first five innings here. And it's about even money in this one against Houston.”
Athletics 11, Astros 4 — Athletics led Astros 11-1 through 5 innings en route to an 11-4 win, covering Oakland F5 (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with a wrong fighter favorite. We're going to go with Haley All-Hail Cowan here. Probably by a decision here, wrong fighter favorite to end the week strong.”
Alice Pereira defeated Hailey/Haley Cowan by KO (knee) at 4:24 of round 2 on the UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan prelims card (Meta APEX, Las Vegas, April 4, 2026), so the Cowan moneyline pick busts (Wikipedia event page).
“We go over the 231 total points. We're going to go with a blowout special over 231 total points. LA Lakers and Oklahoma City Thunder tonight”
Thunder 139, Lakers 96 — Thunder beat Lakers 139-96; combined 235 points clears the 231 total (ESPN box score).
“I think that changes tonight Lee I going to go with the Atlanta Braves here in the first five innings We not going minus a half We just going straight up They playing 120”
Braves 17, Diamondbacks 2 — Braves led Diamondbacks 10-1 through 5 innings en route to a 17-2 win, covering Atlanta F5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to take the one point here. Wrong team favored. West Virginia Mountaineers pull off the small upset.”
West Virginia 82, Stanford 77 — West Virginia beat Stanford 82-77 in overtime in the College Basketball Crown quarterfinal, winning outright to cover +1 (ESPN box score).
“I think they win this game by double digits. Lay the nine, nine and a half. They might win this game by 20 to 25 points. Low out special. OU Sooners tonight in college basketball's crown tournament.”
Oklahoma 90, Colorado 86 — Oklahoma beat Colorado 90-86 in overtime in the College Basketball Crown quarterfinal; the 4-point margin fell short of Oklahoma -9.5 (ESPN box score).
“Let's take the Padres' first five innings, minus a half, minus 110, as our MLB, blowout special.”
Padres 7, Giants 1 — Padres led Giants 2-0 through 5 innings (1-0-0-0-1 to 0-0-0-0-0) en route to a 7-1 win, covering San Diego F5 -0.5 (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with the wrong team favored. We're sitting three and three on the week. I think this is going to get us over the hump here. Minnesota Gophers, wrong team favorite against Baylor tonight.”
Baylor 67, Minnesota 48 — Baylor beat Minnesota 67-48 in the College Basketball Crown quarterfinal; Minnesota moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go first five innings under four and a half runs, minus 120 Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates here. It's my hidden gem.”
PIT 8, CIN 3 — Pirates led Reds 6-1 through 5 innings (ESPN box score) en route to an 8-3 win; combined 7 runs through 5 busts the under 4.5.
“And this trend has been a hard one to stay away from. The Boston Bruins at home in the first period, and we're going to take them tonight. They're right around even Monday against Dallas, and the Bruins, we're going to back them in the first period. they have trailed three times in the last 25 home games through the first period so since November 29th 25 home games TD Garden three times the Bruins have trailed and in the past 37 games overall the Bruins have trailed through one just seven times so 20 wins and 10 pushes so it's worked out well for them and also they were off a bad start against Columbus on Sunday they were down three nothing out of the gate came back and won in the shootout four to three and the Bruins are helping themselves there in the wild card uh in the Eastern Conference and also trying to move up at least in the top three in the Atlantic Division now as far as the Stars go they're off a loss to the Flyers uh back on Sunday night they haven't played well of late they've lost five of their past six in the past four games in the first period they have scored a total of one goal and they have not scored a goal in the past three games in the first period so uh I know we talk about regression last night. Tonight, I'm going to ride the trends. I'm going to go with the Bruins first period against the Stars as our NHL hit and jet.”
BOS 6, DAL 3 — Bruins led Dallas 2-0 after the 1st period (ESPN) en route to a 6-3 win; Bruins 1st-period ML covers.
“So we're going to go with the New Jersey Devils. Moneyline tonight, minus 120, a blowout special.”
NYR 4, NJ 1 — Rangers beat Devils 4-1 (ESPN); New Jersey ML busts.
“I'm laying that one and a half points. I'm going to go with a lock right out of the gate here level two lock on a Monday Atlanta Hawks lay the small spot they take on and they beat the Boston Celtics”
ATL 112, BOS 102 — Hawks beat Celtics 112-102 (ESPN); the 10-point margin covers Atlanta -1.5.
“So I'm going to lay the 12 here. I think they blow out Detroit. Detroit's kind of caught. I mean, they're sitting in first place by four games. I think that they know that they're going to be able to get that first seed. They fall behind. They'll be like, OK, just one loss. Lay the 12 points. Blowout special. OKC big over Detroit.”
OKC 114, DET 110 — Thunder beat Pistons 114-110 in overtime (ESPN); the 4-point margin falls short of OKC -12.
“I'm laying the 9 to 9.5. We're going to go with a blowout special with the Michigan Wolverines. They're going to the Elite Eight.”
MICH 90, ALA 77 — Michigan beat Alabama 90-77 in the Sweet 16 (ESPN); the 13-point margin covers Michigan -9.5.
“So let's go with the Royals in the first five innings against the Braves here in Friday's opener between both teams in Atlanta as our Major League Baseball hit and gem.”
ATL 6, KC 0 — Braves led Royals 4-0 through 5 innings (ESPN box score) en route to a 6-0 win; Royals F5 ML busts.
“I'm going to say the wrong team is favored. Bye-bye, Dan Hurley. I'm taking Michigan State. Pull off the upset here. Wrong team favored. Michigan State over UConn.”
CONN 67, MSU 63 — UConn beat Michigan State 67-63 in the Sweet 16 (ESPN); Michigan State ML busts.
“We're going to look at Logan Gilbert, over 6.5. You can get a plus 105 or pretty much at plus 100. Depends on where you look, but plus money on that. Let's go with Logan Gilbert over six and a half strikeouts with Seattle and Cleveland hooking up coming up tonight in the Pacific Northwest as our MLB hit and jam.”
CLE 6, SEA 4 — Logan Gilbert struck out 7 over 5.1 innings for Seattle in a 6-4 Guardians win (ESPN box score); over 6.5 strikeouts covers. (Logan Gilbert: 7 strikeouts)
“So I'm going to take Michael Maverick Chiesa in his retirement fight at home in Seattle by submission, minus 120 to 125. It's going to be my first lock, a level two lock.”
Michael Chiesa submitted Niko Price at 1:03 of round 1 at UFC Fight Night Seattle (UFC.com); submission bet covers.
“I love Nebraska here. Lay the 1-1.5 here. All the way up level 3 lock.”
IOWA 77, NEB 71 — Iowa beat Nebraska 77-71 in the South Region Sweet 16 (ESPN); Nebraska lost outright by 6, busting -1.5.
“Now, the line right now is plus 120 at a couple selected sites to win that region. I think it's going to switch flop to minus 120, minus 140 when people start studying and betting it later this afternoon, tonight, and tomorrow. So I say you get on it now. This Duke team, number one in offensive efficiency. I didn't think they played especially well until the last eight, 10 minutes of the game last weekend. And I just think that there's value there. We're going to go with bet a little, win a lot. Duke plus 120 to win that Eastern region.”
UConn beat Duke 73-72 in the East Region Elite Eight (ESPN bracket); Duke did not win the region.
“So we going to take Bruins first period plus 140 against the Sabres Jeremy Swayman played a net last night for the Bruins so it going to be Jonas Korpasalo in this evening on the back Boston and Buffalo played three times in the first two months of the season And again, that was when Buffalo was struggling a bit, so we've got to put that out there. But Boston won two of the first three meetings with Buffalo, and even in the first period of those games, looking back at it, the Bruins did lead 1-0 in the first matchup, 2-0 in the second matchup, and 1-0 in the third matchup. So the Bruins have not allowed a goal to the Sabres in the first period in three games. Also, a couple other numbers to go over with the Bruins. They lost last night at Toronto. They are 10-0-5 in the first period, the last 15 games off a loss. They do a good job bouncing back in the first period. Also, in the past 10 games, Boston has not allowed a first period goal eight times. And Buffalo is back from a four-game road trip, ended with a loss to Anaheim. They came back from out west, now back east. I know the Sabres have a much different attitude now from the first few months of the season. They could end up being the Atlantic Division champions, which is very odd to say. You wouldn't think that would be the case. But I like the Bruins here in the first period. I think you're getting a good payback here. Let's go with Boston. First pure against Buffalo as our NHL hit and jab”
BOS 4, BUF 3 — Bruins and Sabres were tied 1-1 after the 1st period (Boston won 4-3 in OT, ESPN); NHL 1st-period moneyline is a 3-way market, so the tie is a loss for the Bruins side, not a push.
“So we're going to lay the four, four and a half points here. We're going to take the Utah Jazz. I know it's a horrible game to watch, but a winner's a winner. We're going to go all the way up level three lock Utah Jazz today.”
WSH 133, UTAH 110 — Wizards beat Jazz 133-110 (ESPN); Utah lost outright, busting Jazz -4.5.
“231.5 total points. I like the under here. It's going to be a level 2 lock on Tuesday.”
NY 121, NO 116 — Knicks beat Pelicans 121-116; combined 237 points busts the under 231.5 (ESPN).
“Now Edmonton heads to Salt Lake City to face Utah. And I'm going to take the Edmonton Oilers tonight. They're about plus 110 on the road. against the mammoth one number here. I want to throw out at you. So in the last nine road games for the Oilers off of a home game, they're seven and two. So they play very well off of leaving home and going on the road, starting a trip. Normally they play well. And I think in this spot against the Utah team, who's clawing its way towards a wild card spot, Utah's only problem is they're in the central division. It's not their fault, but Colorado Dallas and Minnesota will lock up the top three spots in the central. So you're going to be relegated to a wild card spot. If you get in where Edmonton can still be a top three team in the Pacific division and avoid uh the wild card uh spot where you wouldn have to play potentially uh Colorado in the first round So Edmonton already beat Utah earlier this season Understandably Leon Dreisaitl the Oilers second best player behind Connor McDavid he's sidelined, so that doesn't help them at all. But I think after losing these two home games, hitting the road, Utah's off a big overtime win over LA. They just lost in overtime to Anaheim. Or actually, no, they lost that game in regulation to Anaheim. But coming off a couple of tough home games now, Edmonton comes in a little bit desperate. We're going to take the Oilers here, plus 110 as our NHL hit and gem.”
EDM 5, UTA 2 — Edmonton Oilers beat Utah Mammoth 5-2 (ESPN box score); Oilers ML covers.
“So I'm going to take the three and a half here tonight. I'm going to say the wrong team is favored. Wichita State pulls off the upset here against Tulsa in NIT action.”
TULSA 83, WICHITA STATE 79 — Tulsa beat Wichita State 83-79 in the NIT quarterfinal (ESPN); the 4-point margin exceeds Wichita State +3.5.
“I'm going to take the two-and-a-half points here for the Miami Heat here in the first half. It's going to be my hidden gem.”
Spurs led the Heat 76-58 at halftime (won 136-111 final); Miami's 18-point halftime deficit busts the +2.5 (ESPN). (Halftime: Spurs 76, Heat 58 (final: Spurs 136, Heat 111))
“We're going to take the points with Detroit. They're getting two against the Lakers tonight. And L.A. comes in, winners of nine consecutive games. But Detroit comes in 11-2 against the spread as an underdog this year. Now, I remember we had the Pistons against the Spurs a little while ago as a dog, and they got blown out. So we're going to try again with them in this spot. But the Lakers continuing this long road trip. They've beaten the Rockets a couple times. They rallied past the Heat. They held off the Magic a few nights ago on Saturday. But now you've got them in the favored role. Detroit took care of them in L.A. earlier this year, and now they get them at home. Jalen Dern has been unbelievable for the Pistons. And although there's no Cade, I think Detroit comes through tonight as a home dog. They slow down the Lakers and that winning streak. Let's go with Detroit here, take the points with them in a rare spot down the stretch, getting points at home because you won't see that when the playoffs begin. So let's take Detroit as a home dog against the Lakers as our NBA. Wrong team favorite.”
113-110 — Pistons beat the Lakers 113-110, covering +2 (ESPN).
“And I think you lay the 15 here. I think they're going to win this game by 22 to 30 points here. So sometimes you got to lay it if you want to play it here. We're going to go with OKC as a blowout special tonight over the Philadelphia 76ers in the city of brotherly love.”
123-103 — Thunder beat the 76ers 123-103, covering -15 (ESPN).
“I'm going to go with the wrong team favorite, Texas Longhorns. They continue on and make it to the Sweet 16. I'm taking those six and a half points. They might even win the game outright.”
74-68 — Texas beat Gonzaga 74-68 in the round of 32; the Longhorns won outright, covering +6.5 (ESPN).
“I'm going to lay the points with Duke here as much as I don't love Duke overall. But still, I like him in this spot laying 11 and a half. Now, Duke did admit one of the players said after the game, we took Siena lightly. I can understand that a little bit, that you would think so. You were a one versus 16. They can just show up and win. But Siena obviously gave him a great fight. but Duke came back and now I think against the TCU team that has been tested I will give them that Jamie Dixon's team beat Florida in non-conference again when Florida wasn't playing great but still a win over Florida they beat Texas Tech late in the season they beat Iowa State they have some good wins uh so far this season and I just believe that they may come up short here that a lot of people will look at those games and say all right well they got uh they got a shot to beat Duke I mean sure they have a shot, but at the same time, I think Duke got a major, major, major wake-up call here that they have great numbers this season. They beat Michigan, remember, in D.C. They won the ACC again under John Shire. They have Cam Boozer, one of the top players in the country. I think this is one where Duke hits the reset button and says, you know what, we screwed around against Siena almost lost We in the worst loss probably in tournament history in that 1 because of how big Duke name is I think they come back here I think they route TCU I going to lay the points with Duke here against TCU to advance and that going to be our college basketball blowout special”
81-58 — Duke beat TCU 81-58 in the round of 32, covering -11.5 (ESPN).
“So I'm going to lay the one and a half points here. I think everyone's going to fall for the trap. Take Nebraska. I'm going to say don't fall for the trap. Take the Vanderbilt Commodores, who are now a football, always a baseball, and now a basketball school too. Lay the one and a half. It's going to be a level two lock.”
74-72 — Nebraska beat Vanderbilt 74-72 in the round of 32; the Commodores lost outright, busting -1.5 (ESPN).
“Lay the small spot, minus one and a half. I think they get the job done. A little lot special over Missouri tonight, last game of the night.”
80-66 — Miami beat Missouri 80-66 in the NCAA tournament first round, covering -1.5 (ESPN).
“And we're going to back the Anaheim Ducks here. First period, it's around even money tonight against the Mammoth. And last time these teams faced each other December 3rd in Anaheim, Utah won 7-0. So Anaheim will definitely be up for this one tonight. The Mammoth back home after they shut out the Golden Knights last night 4-0. In the past 10, or actually in 10 opportunities this year with no rest, The Mammoth have led after the first period just twice. So they do not get off to great starts with no rest. Meanwhile, Anaheim off an overtime loss to Philadelphia a few nights ago. The Ducks in their past nine road games, they have trailed once through the first 20 minutes. Also, they have not allowed a goal in the first period six times in that span. So let's go with Anaheim tonight against Utah in the first period as our NHL. Hidden gem.”
Ducks and Mammoth were tied 1-1 after the first period (Anaheim won 4-1 in regulation); per corpus convention NHL period moneylines are 3-way and a tie grades as a loss for the moneyline side (ESPN). (1st period: Ducks 1, Mammoth 1 (tie); final: Ducks 4, Mammoth 1)
“A lot of points here, 11.5. I know the line started 13.5. 11.5 is still a lot. Hofstra led by one of the all-name NBA players, Speedy Claxton, is their head coach. And on top of that, they have one of the best all-name backcourt guys, Cruz Davis, who averages 20.2 points per game. And this freshman, Edmund, in the background, backboard, he scores almost 16 points per game. So I think that they can hold their own in the backboard against Alabama because of the absence of Aiden Holloway. So they won on the road, not great teams, but won against two ACC teams, Pitt and Syracuse. So it shows that they can go on the road and come out with a win. And those teams pit in Syracuse weren't as bad as they were late in the year. They were much better early in the season. So I think 11.5 is a lot here. This might be a 5-6 8-point game, but 11.5 just was still way too much here. I'm going to take the Hofstra pride. It's going to be a level 1 lot.”
90-70 — Alabama beat Hofstra 90-70 in the NCAA tournament first round; the 20-point margin busts the +11.5 (ESPN).
“So you look at the line and you're like 15 and a half points. That's a lot. Arkansas is coming off winning the SEC, but I just think they got some incredible momentum going now. Darius Acuff Jr. I think he's the best player in college basketball. And I've talked about point guards, how important they are because they set up the offense and also late in games. Let's say they're up by 10, 12, 14 points two minutes ago in the game. What is Hawaii going to do? They're going to foul. And this guy hits free throws. He also is hitting almost 39% of his three pointers. He's improved as the season has progressed, scoring, ball handling, cutting down on his turnovers. I think he's the best, bar none. If I had the first pick, he would be my pick. I think he's going to be a superstar in the NBA. So why no quad one wins here? And Arkansas no losses to teams that aren in the quad one So I just think that this is an absolute mismatch here Both teams like to play up So we know we going to see the winning team score in the 80s or 90s I think Arkansas, I got this game, I got them scoring 95, and I got Hawaii scoring 71 or 72 points here. So we're going to go with a blowout special right out of the gate here. I like the Arkansas Razorbacks big here.”
97-78 — Arkansas beat Hawaii 97-78 in the NCAA tournament first round, covering -15.5 (ESPN).
“This line has gone in Georgia's direction. They're laying two and a half here against St. Louis, this game in Buffalo, and this is the late game in that pod. I'm going to take the points with St. Louis.”
102-77 — Saint Louis beat Georgia 102-77 in the NCAA tournament first round; the Billikens won outright, covering +2.5 (ESPN).
“So I just think it's crazy here that this line isn't minus 400 or 500. It's minus 175, minus 180 here. If Page wants to take him out, knock him out, submit him, he can do it in the first round here. He might let it play out through three rounds, but he's going to get the easy win here. We're going to go with a level three lock all the way up. Michael Venom Page gets the easy win over Sam, no nickname, Patterson.”
Michael "Venom" Page defeated Sam Patterson by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy in London on March 21, 2026; moneyline covers (UFC.com).
“this is a great Cinderella story here you're getting seven points they might even win the game outright I going all the way up on a Wednesday hump day level three lock give me Miami of Ohio plus seven here Easy easy winner plus two points”
89-79 — Miami (OH) beat SMU 89-79 in the First Four; the RedHawks won outright, covering +7 (ESPN).
“I'm going to go with the Colorado Avalanche in the first period tonight. They're laying around 135. We're going to take them here in the opening period against Dallas.”
Avalanche led the Stars 1-0 after the first period; Dallas won 2-1 in an overtime shootout. The 1st-period moneyline pick covers (ESPN). (1st period: Avalanche 1, Stars 0 (final: Stars 2, Avalanche 1 SO))
“I'm going to lay the 11, 11 and a half. New Mexico Lobos here, blowout special.”
107-83 — New Mexico beat Sam Houston State 107-83 in the NIT first round, covering -11.5 (ESPN).
“We going to go over 158 total points It going to be my blowout special”
68-66 — Texas beat NC State 68-66 in the First Four; combined 134 points is well under the 158 total (ESPN box score).
“And we're going to take the Nashville Predators here. We're going to go full game. I know I usually do first periods, but we're going to focus on the full game. And they're sitting at plus 115. The Predators, they are off back-to-back losses the last two games following in the shootout to Vancouver. also lost at Edmonton a few nights ago. But they're looking for some revenge here against Winnipeg. So far, the Jets have taken care of the Predators in two meetings, four to one at home and five to two in Nashville. So Nashville will be out for some revenge tonight. I think it's a bad setup for the Jets off the back-to-back wins. And now you're off this, or you're ending a long homestand here. And Nashville should be pretty focused in this one, considering the fact that they are at the end of the road trip. So they go home for a couple games after this. We're going to go with the Nashville Predators. We're going to take them as a short dog against Winnipeg as our NHL. Hidden gem.”
4-3 — Nashville Predators beat the Winnipeg Jets 4-3 in a shootout; moneyline covers (ESPN).
“So you're getting two, two and a half points. I think you take the St. Thomas Tommies here. it's going to be my wrong team favored”
67-52 — Seattle U beat St. Thomas 67-52 in the NIT first round; the 15-point margin busts the +2.5 (ESPN).
“I think you take them on the money line. They're plus five and a half, but why not here? I can see them winning this game we're gonna go to south florida plus 190 here money line bet a little went a whole lot”
LOU 83, USF 79 — Louisville beat South Florida 83-79 in the NCAA tournament first round; South Florida ML busts (ESPN box score).
“So let's grab the points with the Phoenix Suns, plus eight and a half at Boston as our NBA hit and gem.”
BOS 120, PHX 112 — Boston beat Phoenix 120-112; the 8-point margin is inside Phoenix's +8.5, so the Suns cover (ESPN box score).
“And the Devils, I think they're favored for a reason here. Don't fall for the trap. New Jersey Devils money line, minus 120, a low-out special.”
NJ 4, BOS 3 (OT) — New Jersey beat Boston 4-3 in overtime; Devils ML covers (ESPN box score).
“So one of the reasons I want everyone to get on this game is I think this line is going to come down some. So get on it now. Troy is 13.5 points. Good news for Nebraska is the game's in Oklahoma City. Their fans don't have to travel very far. The bad news is Troy and a couple of these other 13 seats, I think, are pretty darn good here. In fact, one of the games that I watched, took a lot of notes on, and I was impressed, was they beat USC on the road 107-106. They have a lot of firepower. They also crashed the boards, which is the weakness for Nebraska here. Also, Nebraska, as a team, has never won a tournament game. So I can see him winning the game, but 14 points. I mean, 13 and a half right now. Just ticked down a little. I think it's too much here. Troy also has some firepower from the outside here. I'm going to go with a wrong team favorite. Troy Trojans keep it close against Nebraska.”
NEB 76, TROY 47 — Nebraska beat Troy 76-47 in the NCAA tournament first round; the 29-point margin blows through Troy's +13.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to lay the six and a half points here. We've seen some upsets. But I think also playing into this game, Vanderbilt season was beating Tennessee yesterday, beating Tennessee. These guys that made their season, they're in the tournament. They'll play loose. They were they were just done at the end. I mean, one of their key players ended up cramping at the end of the game, missing the last minute. So this Florida team is built to play teams like this. I like Florida. I'm laying the six, six and a half. it going to be a level three lock”
VAN 91, FLA 74 — Vanderbilt upset Florida 91-74 in the SEC tournament semifinal; Florida lost outright, missing the -6.5 cover by 23.5 points (ESPN box score).
“We're going to take St. Louis here, laying six against Dayton. It's interesting in the two matchups this year, two completely different results with these two games. St. Louis won the first one at home 102-71, then lost at Dayton 77-62. So they were great in one, terrible in the other. From an effective field goal percentage standpoint, they had their second best game against Dayton the first time around, had their worst game the second time around. You kind of wonder which is going to be the one that's going to come up this time. Now, Dayton has won three straight games in the underdog role, but I do think here that St. Louis will end up pulling away here after they survive their scare against George Washington. I'm going to go with the St. Louis Billikens here. Josh Church just signed this big extension. He's going to stay at St. Louis. You don't have to worry about him leaving. I think that they want to get that Atlantic 10 automatic bid, even though they'll be in the tournament anyway. But just to get that automatic bid win the championship first step is to beat Dayton and then potentially play VCU in the championship on Sunday Let take St Louis here lay the points with them against Dayton for our college basketball blowout special”
DAY 70, SLU 69 — Dayton beat Saint Louis 70-69 on a last-second tip-in in the Atlantic 10 tournament semifinal; Saint Louis lost outright, missing the -6 cover (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to say this fight ends inside two and a half rounds. So under two and a half rounds, plus 140. Throwing a little head fake on you here, Kevin. Bet a little. Win a whole lot.”
Charles Johnson beat Bruno Silva by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27) at UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos; the fight went the full 3 rounds, not inside 2.5 (ESPN fight card). (Charles Johnson def. Bruno Silva, split decision, went the distance (3 rounds))
“Well, when they played the first time, Alabama put up 93 points on them, and Ole Miss had rest. So the line opened up like nine and a half, 10. It's jumped to like 11, 11 and a half. And over 90% of the money is coming in on Alabama. And I think rightly so here. Ole Miss is going to have to play at a very high level. They're going to have to defend. And that's really tough to do after, you know, playing two games where, you know, they couldn't take their starters out early in the third quarter in the second half. So I just think this is going to be a tough, tough matchup here for them. Alabama, clearly the most explosive team in the SEC. It's not even close here. In that first game, transition, big problem for Ole Miss and turnovers. And I just don't know how they're going to have to overcome that. I mean, maybe they slow the game down here. Unless Alabama is just ice cold, they're in trouble because Alabama can bury threes. They don't have one. They got two. They got three guys that can bury threes. and also their inside game isn't bad either. So unless it's just a totally cold shooting night from Alabama, I think it's going to be real, real tough for them here. I think Alabama is going to win this game by 15 to 20 points or maybe even more to build that double-digit lead. And it's going to be tough once you get into late in the second half and you're trying to overcome that big lead and you've got to shoot threes and you get desperate. That's when Alabama can run you out of the gym. Yeah, I'm going to go with Alabama here. It's a blowout special. They'll keep rolling.”
MISS 80, ALA 79 — Ole Miss beat Alabama 80-79 in the SEC tournament quarterfinal; Alabama lost outright, missing the -11.5 cover by 12.5 points (ESPN box score).
“And we're going to look at the Toledo Rockets tonight. They are laying three and a half against UMass. We're going to take Toledo here as our Hidden Gem.”
TOL 77, UMASS 67 — Toledo beat UMass 77-67 in the MAC tournament semifinal, winning outright and covering -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Wrong fighter favored on the undercard. Starts at 5 o'clock Eastern. I'm going with Sam Hughes plus 130 over Pierre Rodriguez.”
Piera Rodriguez beat Sam Hughes by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos; Hughes ML busts (ESPN fight card). (Piera Rodriguez def. Sam Hughes, unanimous decision, 30-27 x3)
“Take the three, three and a half here. I like Nebraska here. I'm going to go with a level two lock. Nebraska Cornhuskers to move Matt Painter's record against the spread to one and 18 in Big Ten conference play.”
PUR 74, NEB 58 — Purdue beat Nebraska 74-58 in the Big Ten tournament; the 16-point margin blows through Nebraska's +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I will begin with this. In the SEC, I mentioned two old Big 12 rivals. Now SEC rivals, Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Oklahoma came back to beat South Carolina last night. They've won five straight, but we're going to back the Texas A&M Aggies here laying two and a half against OU. And a couple of numbers here to go over. First, Texas A&M, they lost seven games in SEC play. They lost to the top five teams in the league, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt. They also lost to Missouri and Texas. They went this year 8-0 in the SEC against teams below 500 in the league, one of those being Oklahoma, who they beat twice. And in those two games, Oklahoma's two-point attempts, they shot 48.4% and 29%. So A&M shut them down in those two games. Also for Oklahoma, 12th in SEC play on two-point shooting, 50.4%. So they have not been good in that category, even though they shot well against South Carolina last night, but South Carolina, one of the poorer teams in the conference. Lee, I think that Oklahoma's five-game winning streak ends tonight. Let's back the Texas A&M Aggies as our luck of the day. I love it. And I'm riding with you here.”
OU 83, TAMU 63 — Oklahoma beat Texas A&M 83-63 in the SEC tournament second round; the 20-point margin blew through Texas A&M's -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I know the line has moved up here, but, you know, 15 points just doesn't seem like enough here. Nick Nurse wants to make this a rock fight here, the coach for Philadelphia. Slow down the pace, but I don't think he's going to be able to do it here. And I don't think their defense is going to be good enough. So we're going to go with a blowout special. Detroit Pistons tonight, big over the Philadelphia 76ers.”
DET 131, PHI 109 — Detroit beat Philadelphia 131-109, a 22-point margin that covers Detroit's -15 spread (ESPN box score).
“And the first game, in fact, it was a 66-60 game. And you're like, okay, the total's under 138.5, 139. You know, maybe I take a look at the over. But that game was in overtime. That's right, in overtime. And people are betting the over here. You know, this is, you know, a court. Neither team play on this home court. It's in Las Vegas. And Nevada's not going to be tired. Nevada played Air Force yesterday, played 14 players. In fact, their top two players only played 23 in 20 minutes. They went 80 to 45. Air Force, I almost looked at the score twice at halftime, and it only scored 10 points at half. I don't know if I've ever seen that, at least in the last 15, 20 years. 10 points and a half. I think they were 0 for 13 from three-point land. So if you were a parent of a player on Nevada that was a walk-on, you finally got to see your son play yesterday. All 14 players played. So they're not going to be tired here. I think you're going to see maximum defensive effort. Neither team has, you know, a three-point shooter that lights it up. You know, it's above 42%, 43%. So let's go with the under. I think it's the safest way to play this game. hidden gem here under in the Nevada Grand Canyon game that starts late afternoon, early evening.”
NEV 84, GCU 80 — Nevada beat Grand Canyon 84-80 in the Mountain West tournament quarterfinal; the combined 164 points went well over the 139 total (ESPN box score).
“give me houston's playing really good basketball i think denver might be lucky to come out with a win tonight we're gonna go the houston rockets plus the six wrong team favored”
DEN 129, HOU 93 — Nuggets routed the Rockets 129-93 behind Jokic's 25th triple-double; Houston +6 busts by a 30-point margin (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take the Xavier Musketeers tonight. Richard Pitino against Marquette in the Big East tournament. Xavier's getting four and a half. Marquette is coming off two nice wins. They beat Providence, where they kind of caught Providence a little off guard there, and they upset UConn at home on Saturday. And that was the biggest win of their season for Shaka Smart. Marquette was a real disappointment this year. So they're coming off two wins as a dog. Last nine games is a favorite for Marquette. They're 1-8 against the spread. So a team I'm not depending on to lay points. Last time I did lay points was against DePaul, and they got ran out at home just a few weeks ago. Now for Xavier, they dropped 5-6, and they split the two meetings with Marquette this year, lost by 1, won by 8. I just think here that it's just a letdown spot for Marquette. How do you get up again after that UConn win, senior day, final game of the season at home? Now going to New York, obviously, a lot of these teams get excited to play New York City for the Big East Tournament. But I think that Xavier, after slumping late, I think they'll catch Marquette off guard here. So let's take the points with the Xavier Musketeers against Marquette as our wrong team favorite.”
XAV 89, MARQ 87 — Xavier beat Marquette 89-87 in the Big East tournament first round, winning outright and covering +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“And I know it jumped up from 10.5 to 12 points, but Cleveland won six of the last seven meetings when these two teams have squared up and also swept both games in January. I think they're going to do it again here. I'm going to take Cleveland. We're going to go with the blowout special, the Cavs, over the Sixers tonight.”
CLE 115, PHI 101 — Cavaliers beat 76ers 115-101, a 14-point margin that covers Cleveland's -12 (ESPN box score).
“But we're going to take Monmouth tonight. They are laying two to Campbell. Here's why. First of all, Campbell was the team that knocked out UNC Wilmington. They actually played very, very well. They opened things up late in the first half and blew them out in the second half. So now Campbell riding off that. They played with double revenge yesterday against UNC Wilmington. So now you're playing Monmouth, a team a little lower on the rung in the Coastal this season. But Monmouth, though, still 18-14 overall. They've won four in a row. They shut down Drexel yesterday, 65-57. And when you look down the stretch at what Monmouth has done, they've won six of eight. The two losses came to UNC Wilmington, and Charleston was a pretty good team, even though they got knocked out yesterday. Also, Monmouth has pretty good defensive numbers as far as it goes in the Coastal, where Campbell, they're a team that's really not great defensively. They're going to try to outscore you, but they were second in the Coastal this year in defensive two-point percentage, ranking 11th. They were ninth in defensive three-point percentage. They were 10th in defensive efficiency in the Coastal, and as evidenced by allowing 89 to Stony Brook in the first game, they did allow 70 to UNC Wilmington yesterday. But still, they didn't play great down the stretch. They are playing with some momentum. But I think here there's a letdown spot for Campbell. Let's back Monmouth here as a short favorite against Campbell in the CAA semifinals as our college basketball blowout special.”
MONM 74, CAM 64 — Monmouth beat Campbell 74-64 in the CAA tournament semifinal, covering -2 by a 10-point margin (ESPN box score).
“And I'm going to take the point and a half here in northern Kentucky. I think they're going to shoot better from the three-point line. Also, you know, playing on a neutral court, that can make a difference here also. So I like underdogs here in semifinals and finals when the line is short here. I think the pressure is on Wright State is at number one seat. So I'm going to take the one and a half here in the North. I'm going to ride them here. It's going to be my wrong team favorite.”
WSU 103, NKU 90 — Wright State beat Northern Kentucky 103-90 in the Horizon League semifinal; the 13-point margin exceeds +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Georgia visits Mississippi State, and these teams going in different directions. The Bulldogs right now around a five, five and a half point favorite at Mississippi State. Georgia's won four of five and Mississippi State has struggled dropping four in a row. So with that being said guess what We going to take Mississippi State with the points Now looking back at this recent stretch for the Bulldogs after they lost at South Carolina the past three defeats, losing by 25 at Alabama, 24 at home to Missouri, a game they were dead and buried about five minutes in. And they lost at Florida, 108-74. A game they actually led in the first half. Then the Gators opened things up late in the first half and then blew them away in the second half. But I do believe here that Mississippi State, knowing this is the last game of the season with them coming in at 13 and 17, big disappointment that they would like to end on a winning note. And when you look at the Georgia Bulldogs, they are off a big win over Alabama. So you wonder if there's a letdown here against Mississippi State. You know, there's a huge game against Bama. Also, they've shot over 62 percent on effective field goal percentage the last two games. Don't know if that holds up coming up today. So we're going to take the points of the Mississippi State Bulldogs against the Georgia Bulldogs in the battle of the Bulldogs today in Starkville. So we'll take Mississippi State as our SEC hit and gem.”
UGA 102, MSST 96 — Georgia beat Mississippi State 102-96; the 6-point margin exceeds the +5.5 cushion (ESPN box score).
“And we're going to take Providence here. They're plus one point. This is a game that could close the pick-em. You never know. We'll see how it goes. But we're going to go with Providence here.”
GTWN 80, PROV 79 — Georgetown beat Providence 80-79, an exact 1-point margin that pushes against the Providence +1 line (ESPN).
“We're going to go with a level two lock. Missouri Tigers minus one and a half over the Arkansas Razorbacks.”
ARK 88, MIZ 84 (OT) — Arkansas beat Missouri 88-84 in overtime; Missouri lost outright, failing to cover -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to say the wrong team is favored. I like the Denver Nuggets tonight, plus the one and a half.”
NY 142, DEN 103 — Knicks beat Nuggets 142-103; Denver's 39-point loss busts the +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“let's go with st johns tonight lay the four and a half with them at the at the rock at the prudential center against seton hall as our college basketball blowout special”
SJU 72, HALL 65 — St. John's beat Seton Hall 72-65, covering -4.5 by a 7-point margin (ESPN box score).
“if that's the case i think there's a chance both these guys are laying all on the line remember they also they get uh extra money for finishes here we're seeing a little more finishes There's extra bonus that way. So I just think that this is one of these fights. We're going to see a knockout or both these guys are great submission artists here. I don't see this. There's any way this fight goes the full five rounds. So I'm going to bet this fight does not go the distance here in the Max Holloway, Charles Oliveira, main fight here on UFC 326 on Saturday night. That's going to be my level three lock.”
Charles Oliveira beat Max Holloway by unanimous decision after the fight went the full 5 rounds at UFC 326 (T-Mobile Arena, March 7, 2026) — the fight did not end early, so the 'does not go the distance' pick lost (UFC.com).
“I'm not going with an underdog play here. I'm going to go with a lock here. I love Iowa. Plus eight and a half points at home against the Michigan Wolverines.”
MICH 71, IOWA 68 — Michigan beat Iowa 71-68; Iowa's 3-point loss is inside the +8.5 cushion (ESPN box score).
“You know, not only do I like it. I think this might be a money line spot here. Take Memphis on the money line. So, you know, senior days are important to these kids and the crowd. You know, they know it's probably the last game here. They're going to be able to see them and they're going to head to the conference tournament. Memphis has virtually no chance to get into the tournament this year. So if there's anything left, I think you're going to see it tonight. I think Penny will have him fired up um he's impressed me as a coach a little underrated so i expect him to rally the troops tonight and not getting any value with back you know laying usf a couple weeks ago this line would be usf minus one or two points so uh getting six points wouldn't shock me if they win the game outright i'm gonna put some money on the money line on the memphis tigers and some of the money line numbers are plus 240”
USF 96, MEM 89 — South Florida beat Memphis 96-89; Memphis's moneyline pick lost (ESPN box score).
“They win this game easily by double digits. Lay the six here. This is going to be a blowout special for the St. Thomas Tommies.”
STU 80, SDST 67 — St. Thomas beat South Dakota State 80-67 in the Summit League quarterfinal, covering -6 by a 13-point margin (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to take the plus 13 points with the Brooklyn Nets. It's going to be my hidden gem.”
MIA 126, BKN 110 — Heat beat Nets 126-110; Brooklyn's 16-point loss exceeds the +13 cushion (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go over 164.5 total points here. I see one or maybe both teams getting into the 90s here. We're going to start off Wednesday, hump day, with a lock, level three lock, all the way up here, over 164.5 total points, Arkansas and Texas, tonight.”
ARK 105, TEX 85 — Arkansas beat Texas 105-85; combined 190 points clears the Over 164.5 (ESPN box score).
“but we going to take the golden knights tonight plus 106 in the first period against the Red Wings Now a couple notes here Detroit in the last 14 games they have led after the first period one time. Also, since the Olympic break, the Red Wings won goal in the opening 20 minutes, their first home game since January 31st. So, it's been a while since they've been at Little Caesars Arena. Also, for Vegas, in the last 11 games with no rest. They've trailed just three times. So Vegas in these games, they don't have a letdown with no rest. And Detroit in the last 13 games this season against unrested opponents, they've led just two times. So we're going to take the Vegas Golden Knights in the first period against Detroit, trying to get back on track here as tonight's NHL, Hidden Gem.”
1st period DET 3-VGK 1, final VGK 4-DET 3 (OT) — Red Wings led Vegas 3-1 after the 1st period; Golden Knights won 4-3 in OT — Vegas's 1st-period moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“I'm laying the eight points. This line might close close to 10. Get on it now. Thank me later here. We're going to go with Oral Roberts here. I think it's going to be a nice hidden gem.”
ORU 84, KC 62 — Oral Roberts beat Kansas City 84-62 in the Summit League Championship first round, covering -8 by a 22-point margin (ESPN box score).
“Let's take Montreal in the first period, laying the 130 against San Jose. And again, if you have a push, then you just get a refund. So you don't have to worry about necessarily winning the period if you're laying a half goal. So let's take Montreal minus the 130 as our NHL hit and gem.”
1st period MTL 1-SJ 1, final MTL 5-SJ 7 — Canadiens and Sharks were tied 1-1 after the 1st period (Sharks won 7-5 final) — Montreal's 1st-period moneyline does not win on a tie (ESPN box score).
“So I know Oklahoma's a small favorite here. I like Missouri. I think Missouri's really coming around here. Not saying they're going to win, you know, make it to the Sweet 16, but this is a team that could win a game probably to start the tournament. And I just think that they're a more sound team and a better defensive team and do quite well on the road. Let's go to the Missouri Tigers here. Wrong team favored they knock off oklahoma tonight”
OKLA 80, MIZ 64 — Oklahoma beat Missouri 80-64; Missouri's moneyline pick lost (ESPN box score).
“No denying it, but I just don't want to lay eight points. I just think that these teams know each other inside and out. You've got a good coach here and a team that I don't think they're going to be intimidated. So, Big Monday, we're going to look to the underdog here in the big game. Two versus number four. I'm going to take the Iowa State Cyclones here. Wrong team favorite.”
ARIZ 73, ISU 57 — Arizona beat Iowa State 73-57 to clinch the Big 12 regular-season title; the 16-point margin blows through Iowa State +8 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take incarnate word here, plus the eight points here. It's going to be my hidden gem.”
SFA 76, UIW 68 — Stephen F. Austin beat Incarnate Word 76-68 — an exact 8-point margin ties Incarnate Word +8 for a push (ESPN box score).
“I think the 10 points a little elevated because of the winning streak that Florida on So I taking the points here Wrong team favorite”
FLA 111, ARK 77 — Florida routed Arkansas 111-77; the 34-point margin blows through Arkansas +10 (ESPN box score).
“And Villanova getting 7.5 against St. John's.”
STJ 89, NOVA 57 — St. John's routed Villanova 89-57; the 32-point margin blows through Villanova +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go under 141.5 total points here. It's going to be a level two lock.”
DUKE 77, UVA 51 — Duke beat Virginia 77-51; combined 128 points stays under 141.5 (ESPN box score).
“So let's take Winnipeg, first period against Anaheim as our NHL. Hidden Jet.”
ANA 5, WPG 4 (OT) — Jets led Ducks 1-0 after the 1st period (Anaheim came back to win 5-4 in OT), so the Jets first-period-lead prop settles true (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to take Detroit, lay the six points here over Cleveland. We're going to finish the week with a blowout special.”
DET 122, CLE 119 (OT) — Pistons beat Cavaliers 122-119 in OT; Detroit's 3-point margin falls short of -6 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go under here, under 215.5 total points. Level three lock.”
HOU 113, ORL 108 — Rockets beat Magic 113-108; combined 221 points goes over 215.5 (ESPN box score).
“First period, lane 120 against the Columbus Blue Jackets as our hidden gem. Now, a couple things here. Number one the again stuff before the break it kind of hard to bring it to the call the second half And we more than past the first half of the season These teams have about 25 27 games left Columbus has won seven straight They've won 11 of 12. So you've got to believe the Olympic break kind of broke up a little bit of the momentum for this team. But for Boston, though, they have some good numbers heading into this one. They've trailed twice at the end of the first period in the last 17 home games, that's dating back to late November. Also, the Bruins lost to the Panthers in the final game before the break. Boston 8-0 in the first period off a loss since December 23rd. In the opening period, you're laying 120, so you've got to push here. It's not that big of a deal. You lay that, you just get a refund on it if it's 0-0, 1-1 game. But I do believe Boston can catch Columbus here, who is off this big winning streak, had a bit of a break. So maybe the momentum is hurt and also first meeting between these teams this season. So let's take the Bruins first period over the Blue Jackets as our NHL. Hidden gem.”
BOS 4, CBJ 2 — Bruins and Blue Jackets were tied 1-1 after the 1st period (Boston went on to win 4-2) — Boston did not lead after 1st (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with Wes Party Time Schultz here plus 210.”
Damian Pinas TKO'd Wes Schultz in round 1 (2:30) at UFC Fight Night Mexico City, so Schultz's moneyline loses (UFC.com event result).
“I'm taking Detroit. Don't fall for the trap. Lay the seven and a half. It's going to be a blowout special.”
DET 124, OKC 116 — Pistons beat Thunder 124-116; Detroit's 8-point margin covers -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“Let's take Colorado and Utah. First period over one and a half. But FanDuel earlier was minus 122, so it's not a high price to pay. Let's take the over of one and a half goals in the first period from Colorado and Utah as our NHL. Here's the gem.”
COL 4, UTA 2 — Avalanche and Mammoth were scoreless through the 1st period (Colorado won 4-2, scoring all four goals in the 2nd) — the over 1.5 first-period goals total misses (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to lay the six here. I'm going to go with a level two lock with the Florida Gators here tonight.”
FLA 84, TEX 71 — Florida beat Texas 84-71; the Gators' 13-point margin covers -6 (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to start off right out of the gate, level two lock, under 232.5 total points.”
CLE 109, NY 94 — Cavaliers beat Knicks 109-94; combined 203 points stays under 232.5 (ESPN box score).
“let's go under the total of 146.5 between Fresno State and Colorado State in the Mountain West as our college basketball hidden gem.”
CSU 74, FRES 70 — Colorado State beat Fresno State 74-70; combined 144 points stays under 146.5 (ESPN box score).
“It started off the line, started at four and a half. Tennessee favorites moved down to four, three and a half. But I still think it's too high. I think Missouri will win the game. It'll come down to that last possession or two. So in that case, you take the points here. And maybe that Tennessee game they're feeling on Saturday at win over Vaney, it may be a little high on themselves. And Missouri might be able to put them in their place. So I'm going to take the points here. We're going to go with the Missouri Tigers as our wrong team favorite.”
MIZ 73, TENN 69 — Missouri beat Tennessee 73-69; as +3.5 underdog, Missouri's outright win covers the spread (ESPN box score).
“i just think san antonio is more dynamic better defense better rebounding team here i know detroit's at home but i'm taking the one and a half points here wrong team favored san antonio's first tonight over the detroit Pistons.”
DET 103, SA 114 — San Antonio beat Detroit 114-103 outright on the road, covering +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the under of 145.5.”
NICH 53, LAM 52 — Nicholls State beat Lamar 53-52 on a buzzer-beater layup; the combined 105 points stays well under 145.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with Houston here and lay the one and a half points all the way up on a Monday. Rarely do it. Level three lock on the Houston Cougars.”
KU 69, HOU 56 — Kansas beat Houston 69-56 at home; Houston's outright road loss busts -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to say that this fight Goes the distance. Minus 150.”
Sean Strickland finished Anthony Hernandez by TKO (punches) at 2:23 of round 3 at UFC Fight Night Houston, so the fight did not go the distance (UFC.com official results).
“Let take the points with Princeton plus one and a half against Brown as our college basketball hit and gem”
BRWN 80, PRIN 71 — Brown beat Princeton 80-71; Princeton's 9-point loss busts +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the three and a half points here. I'm going to take the Miami Heat.”
ATL 97, MIA 128 — Miami beat Atlanta 128-97 on the road, a 31-point margin that covers -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with the Phoenix Suns here, plus the eight points. wrong team favored they might even pull off the shocker win the game outright”
SA 121, PHX 94 — San Antonio beat Phoenix 121-94; the Suns' 27-point loss busts +8 (ESPN box score).
“It's Tennessee Martin, the Skyhawks. They are laying two and a half at Little Rock.”
LR 67, UTM 65 — Little Rock beat Tennessee Martin 67-65; UT Martin's outright loss busts -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“The line's minus 150. I think the line should be like close to 220 to 240. So we're going to take the value here and we're going to go with a blowout special. Ante Deligia tonight on the main card UFC for Saturday night.”
Serghei Spivac beat Ante Delija by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) in the heavyweight bout at UFC Fight Night Houston, so Delija's moneyline busts (UFC.com official results).
“I'm going to lay the 12 and a half points. Don't fall for the trap that BYU can keep it close. If that's the only reason you're betting a game, because you're looking to keep it close, you're not winning the game, you're making a mistake here. We're going to go with a level unlock Arizona tonight at home over BYU.”
ARIZ 75, BYU 68 — Arizona beat BYU 75-68, only a 7-point margin, failing to cover -12.5 (ESPN box score).
“And UAB plus one and a half, we're going to take them.”
UAB 76, TEM 71 — UAB beat Temple 76-71 outright on the road, covering +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to take the nine, nine and a half points here and USC midweek game here.”
USC 65, ILL 101 — Illinois beat USC 101-65, a 36-point margin, blowing well past the +9.5 cushion (ESPN box score).
“I going to take Michigan Moneyline here as my level two lock”
PUR 80, MICH 91 — Michigan beat Purdue 91-80 on the road, so the Michigan moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Miami is laying eight against Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes were down seven in the final minute at NC State on Saturday. Came back and won that game. That was on the heels, sorry for the pun, of beating North Carolina the game before. So Miami has just been on fire. I don't like the spot at all for the Hurricanes. They go to Virginia coming up this weekend. All right. Big game there. Then Florida State after that. rivalry game. Now you get Virginia Tech into town. Virginia Tech has been very inconsistent in ACC play. They won at Clemson and then stubbed their toe against Florida State on Saturday at home. They allowed 72.7% effective field goal percent against the Seminoles, who have not been great in ACC play. Lost 92-69 at home, so big letdown after that Clemson win. But on the flip side, Virginia Tech, how about this number, Lee? Last six games, the road dog, six no against the spread. So they have been very good in this spot. I just don't like the situation for Miami. Last home game against North Carolina rushed the court. Big win for them, and they caught Carolina off the Duke win. Now you beat NC State. Now you get Virginia Tech who struggled. I don't want to say you're not motivated. I don't like saying that, but it feels like this is a lot of points to lay, and you got to believe the Hokies will play better after a poor performance against FSU. Let's take the points with Virginia Tech against Miami tonight, and Coral Gables as our college basketball hidden gem”
MIA 67, VT 66 — Miami beat Virginia Tech 67-66; the Hokies' 1-point loss covers +8 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the six, six and a half points and take the NC State tonight.”
NCSU 82, UNC 58 — NC State beat North Carolina 82-58, a 24-point margin that covers -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the 19 and a half points here. It going to be a blowout special Duke big time over Syracuse tonight in Cameron Indoor Arena”
DUKE 101, SYR 64 — Duke beat Syracuse 101-64, a 37-point margin that comfortably covers -19.5 (ESPN box score).
“But I'm going to lay the 3.5 points with Marshall tonight at home.”
MRSH 84, USA 80 — Marshall beat South Alabama 84-80 at home, covering -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“So Iowa State money line minus 135. It's going to be a level two lock to start off on Monday.”
ISU 70, HOU 67 — Iowa State beat Houston 70-67, so the Iowa State moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“and you're getting a couple points, two and a half points here. So I'm going to go with a wrong team favored. I like Wisconsin here at home in Madison.”
Wisconsin 92, Michigan State 71 — Wisconsin beat Michigan State 92-71 on Feb 13, 2026, a 21-point margin that covers Badgers +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“And I'm going to go with North Carolina A&T tonight. They're getting three points against Hampton.”
NC A&T 71, Hampton 70 — North Carolina A&T beat Hampton 71-70 in the HBCU Classic on Feb 13, 2026, winning outright and covering Aggies +3 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a level unlock to finish Friday. I like George Mason, plus the two and a half points here.”
George Washington 72, George Mason 53 — George Washington beat George Mason 72-53 on Feb 13, 2026; the Patriots' 19-point loss exceeds the +2.5 cushion (ESPN box score).
“We're going to lay the points. Lay the seven and a half.”
POR 135, UTA 119 — Portland beat Utah 135-119 on Feb 12, 2026, a 16-point margin that covers Trail Blazers -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to take the points with the Red Foxes of Marist, the home of Rick Smiths. We're going to take them plus three and a half against Merrimack,”
Merrimack 81, Marist 56 — Merrimack beat Marist 81-56 on Feb 12, 2026; the Red Foxes' 25-point loss exceeds the +3.5 cushion (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the wrong team favored right out of the gate. Let's go with the Georgia Bulldogs plus the 9.5 points.”
Florida 86, Georgia 66 — Florida beat Georgia 86-66 on Feb 11, 2026; the Bulldogs' 20-point loss exceeds the +9.5 cushion (ESPN box score).
“So we going to lay the two and a half with the Toreros of San Diego tonight against Portland Some late night WCC action as our Wednesday night college basketball hit a gem”
San Diego 71, Portland 58 — San Diego beat Portland 71-58 on Feb 11, 2026, a 13-point margin that covers Toreros -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to lay the one point here. I'm going to lay the one point here and take North Carolina here uh couldn't be a level two lock”
MIA 75, UNC 66 — Miami beat North Carolina 75-66 on Feb 10, 2026; the Tar Heels' 9-point loss exceeds the -1 cushion (ESPN box score).
“Now you're laying five. I like Fordham here. Let's take the points with the Rams against the Hawks of St. Joe's.”
Fordham 68, Saint Joseph's 64 — Fordham beat Saint Joseph's 68-64 on Feb 10, 2026, winning outright and covering Fordham +5 (ESPN box score).
“wrong team favored we're gonna go with kansas at home and allen fieldhouse to pull off the upset wrong team favored”
KU 82, ARIZ 78 — Kansas beat Arizona 82-78 at Allen Fieldhouse on Feb 9, 2026, winning outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“so let's take the bradley braves plus two and a half as our hidden gem”
Bradley 95, Belmont 84 (OT) — Bradley beat Belmont 95-84 in overtime on Feb 9, 2026, winning outright and covering Bradley +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“But Detroit, a two-and-a-half-point favorite here, Lee, in Charlotte. What do you like? Well, if it started today, Charlotte would be number 10, and they'd be ahead of, like I said, one of those mainstays, the Chicago Bulls. So they're on a roll right now. They've won nine straight, covered seven of the last nine. Problem here is Detroit is, as you said, and I believe, the much better team. They've won each of the last three meetings between these two teams, including a 1-12-86 win over the Hornets on December 20th. What's the biggest difference last year to this year? Believe it or not, it's Duncan Robinson. didn't have a three-point shooter. And when you have Cunningham, Cade Cunningham, I mean, he's got to be a guy that you got to put sometimes two guys on. Now they have someone they can kick it out to that can hit some threes. So Duncan Robinson on most teams would be seventh, eighth, ninth guy. But on this team, he's starting and he's filling it up here. I just think that this Detroit team, they can play almost any style too. And that's important in a game like this here. So Charlotte probably going to try to slow the game down here, very slow pace here. But both teams lately over the last 10, 15 games, top five in defense. But Detroit scoring inside, outside here, and just they can have some runs here, 10, 12, 14-0 runs here. And that, I think, might be the difference. I'm going to take Detroit here. It's going to be a level two lock.”
DET 110, CHA 104 — Detroit beat Charlotte 110-104 on Feb 9, 2026, a 6-point margin that covers Pistons -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with the wrong team, wrong player favored. JSN under 95 and a half receiving yards for the game.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 4 passes for 27 receiving yards in Seattle's 29-13 Super Bowl LX win over New England on Feb 8, 2026, staying under 95.5 (ESPN box score). (Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 27 receiving yards)
“I don't think it's that insane, and that FanDuel, it's a minus 115, so you're not paying a lot of juice on it. Let's go with Sam Darnold over five and a half rushing yards in Super Bowl 60 as our blowout special.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Sam Darnold rushed twice for 5 yards in Seattle's 29-13 Super Bowl LX win over New England on Feb 8, 2026, staying under 5.5 and busting the over (ESPN box score). (Sam Darnold: 5 rushing yards)
“Let's go with the under 45.5. between the Seahawks and the Patriots as our blowout special.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX on Feb 8, 2026; the combined 42 points stays under 45.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the four and a half points I like the Seattle Seahawks 27-16 Falls like yours, falls on the under But I think the strongest play For me is Seattle It's going to be a level three lock”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX on Feb 8, 2026, a 16-point margin that covers Seahawks -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“Take take Hunter Henry over 38 and a half receiving yards. Going to be my first hidden gem.”
SEA 29, NE 13 — Hunter Henry had 3 receptions for 31 yards in Super Bowl LX, missing the over 38.5 receiving-yards line. (Hunter Henry: 31 receiving yards (3 receptions))
“Austin Hooper over a half a catch. My second hidden gem for the Super Bowl.”
SEA 29, NE 13 — Austin Hooper caught 2 passes for 10 yards in Super Bowl LX, clearing the over 0.5-reception line. (Austin Hooper: 2 receptions (10 yards))
“west virginia visiting cincinnati and we're going to back the mountaineers of west virginia here they're getting five and a half”
WVU 59, CIN 54 — West Virginia won outright at Cincinnati 59-54, covering the +5.5 line.
“So I like Danil Donchenko here minus 170 by KO and TKO over Alex Morono on UFC Fight Night on Saturday night on the undercard.”
Daniil Donchenko beat Alex Morono by unanimous decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-27) at UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira on Feb 7, 2026 — not by KO/TKO, so the method-specific pick loses.
“uh gafford uh pj washington out with a concussion here um chris middleton i i i just think that this is going to be a blow and i know it's at dallas latest six and a half seven another blowout special san antonio spurs over the dallas mavericks tonight”
SA 135, DAL 123 — Spurs beat Mavericks 135-123; San Antonio's +12 margin covered the -7 line.
“and you're getting seven seven and a half points with Oklahoma State I think this game goes right down to the wire they might even win it outright. We're going to go with Oklahoma State plus all those gorgeous points here.”
OKST 99, BYU 92 — Oklahoma State beat BYU 99-92; the Cowboys' +7 margin covered the +7.5 line.
“I'm taking the Flames here in the first period. It's basically even money. They're plus 100.”
CGY 4, EDM 3 — Flames led Oilers 2-1 after the 1st period en route to a 4-3 win.
“so we going to go over 15 and a half yards Matt Collins longest reception here it going to be a level one lock”
SEA 29, NE 13 — Mack Hollins' longest reception in Super Bowl LX went for 35 yards (on 4 catches, 1 TD), clearing the 15.5-yard longest-reception line. (Mack Hollins: longest reception 35 yards (4 receptions, 1 TD))
“So we're going to go under four and a half receptions for Stefan Diggs here on Sunday in the Super Bowl. Not all the way, but close. Level two lock.”
SEA 29, NE 13 — Stefon Diggs caught 3 passes for 37 yards in Super Bowl LX, staying under the 4.5-reception line. (Stefon Diggs: 3 receptions (37 yards))
“so we're going to lay the two and a half points on the road it's going to be a blowout special”
MIL 131, CHI 115 — Bucks beat Bulls 131-115; Chicago's -16 margin missed the -2.5 line.
“we're gonna go with the seattle crackens around plus 108 at fan duel”
ANA 4, SEA 2 — Kraken and Ducks were tied 0-0 after the 1st period (Anaheim won 4-2) — Seattle never led after 1.
“the Aztecs are 12-point favorites against the Cowboys, and we're going to take the Wyoming Cowboys tonight, take another shot with them.”
SDSU 72, WYO 63 — San Diego State beat Wyoming 72-63; the Cowboys' -9 margin covered the +12 line.
“It's going to be a level three lock over two and a half receptions for the Super Bowl on Sunday.”
SEA 29, NE 13 — Cooper Kupp caught 6 passes for 61 yards in Super Bowl LX, clearing the 2.5-reception line. (Cooper Kupp: 6 receptions (61 yards))
“We're going to go under three and a half receptions for Ramondi Stevenson. another level three lock.”
SEA 29, NE 13 — Rhamondre Stevenson caught 5 passes for 40 yards in Super Bowl LX, exceeding the under 3.5 line. (Rhamondre Stevenson: 5 receptions (40 yards))
“So I feel real confident about Drake May. Will he throw an interception in the game minus 120? That's going to be my first level two lock.”
SEA 29, NE 13 — Drake Maye threw 2 interceptions (27/43, 295 yards, 2 TD) in Super Bowl LX, clearing the interception prop. (Drake Maye: 2 interceptions)
“I'm going to go, will Seattle convert a fourth down? Not, we'll try, we'll convert a fourth down conversion here, minus 150? no level one lock”
SEA 29, NE 13 — Seattle went 0-for-0 on fourth-down attempts in Super Bowl LX (never attempted, so never converted), so the pick on Seattle NOT converting a 4th down wins. (Seattle 4th-down efficiency: 0-0)
“So we're going to look at the Red Wings tonight. Plus 150, first period against the Avs.”
DET 2, COL 0 — Red Wings led Avalanche 1-0 after the 1st period en route to a 2-0 shutout win.
“Line 6.5. Get on it now. This could end up closing at 7.5, 8 points here. We're going to go with a blowout special. Charlotte Hornets tonight.”
CHA 102, NO 95 — Hornets beat Pelicans 102-95, rallying from 22 down; Charlotte's +7 margin covered the -6.5 line.
“I like Michigan State. plus the one and a half at home against Michigan tonight.”
MICH 83, MSU 71 — Michigan beat Michigan State 83-71; the Spartans' -12 margin missed the +1.5 line.
“we're going to take the total of this game under 142.5.”
CLT 80, RICE 70 — Charlotte beat Rice 80-70; the combined 150 points went over the 142.5 total.
“we're going to go with Dom, the Street Buddha, Marfan, minus 150 over Sangwoo Kim, the frog man here. It's going to be my blowout special.”
Dom Marfan defeated Sangwoo Kim by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) in the Road to UFC Season 4 lightweight final at UFC 325 on Feb 1, 2026; the moneyline pick on Marfan wins outright regardless of method.
“we're going to go over 23 receiving yards for running back Kenneth Walker III of the Seattle Seahawks. It's going to be a blowout special.”
SEA 29, NE 13 — Kenneth Walker III had 2 receptions for 26 receiving yards (plus 135 rushing yards) in Super Bowl LX, clearing the 23.5 line. (Kenneth Walker III: 26 receiving yards (2 receptions))
“getting seven, seven and a half at home, give me the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. That's going to be in the NBA. My wrong team favorite.”
MIN 123, OKC 111 — Timberwolves beat Thunder 123-111; Minnesota's +12 margin covered the +7.5 line.
“This is going to be my wrong team favorite Let go to the Knicks tonight here Plus two points in Toronto”
TOR 92, NY 119 — Knicks beat Raptors 119-92 in Toronto; New York's +27 margin clears the +2 line (ESPN box score).
“so we're going to go on the lock, another level 2 lock here Utah State lay the 13.5, 14 points, big win here I think they win by 20 plus over Wyoming tonight”
USU 94, WYO 62 — Utah State beat Wyoming 94-62; the Aggies' 32-point margin clears -13.5 (ESPN box score).
“Blowout special. Buffalo Sabres here. Moneyline, minus 110. Public's going to take Toronto. Think they're going to bounce back. Another game. Don't fall for the trap. Sabres, moneyline, blowout special.”
TOR 4, BUF 7 — Sabres beat Maple Leafs 7-4 on the road; Buffalo's moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Small spot, four and a half here. We're going to go with another blowout special. New Mexico Lobos lay one on UNLV.”
UNM 89, UNLV 61 — New Mexico beat UNLV 89-61; the Lobos' 28-point margin clears -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“We'll take the seven and a half points here with the Golden State Warriors. it's going to be a level two lock.”
MIN 108, GS 83 — Timberwolves beat Warriors 108-83; Golden State's -25 margin misses the +7.5 line (ESPN box score).
“And I'm going to take the Islanders. We're going full game on this one. Taking the Islanders. It's around minus 110 on them.”
PHI 0, NYI 4 — Islanders beat Flyers 4-0 on the road (Sorokin shutout); New York's moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Columbus stays hot tonight. Blowout special. Not the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Columbus Blue Jackets. Moneyline minus 110. Blowout special.”
LA 5, CBJ 4 (OT) — The Jan 26 Kings-Blue Jackets game was postponed and made up March 9, 2026; the Kings beat Columbus 5-4 in overtime, so the Blue Jackets moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Over 46.5 total points in the Seattle-LA Rams game. It's going to be a level three lock.”
SEA 31, LAR 27 — Seahawks beat Rams 31-27 in the NFC Championship; combined 58 points clears over 46.5 (ESPN box score).
“So let's go with Blake Corum over seven and a half carries for our first hidden gem Lee.”
Blake Corum carried 9 times for 55 yards for the Rams in the NFC Championship, clearing the 7.5-carry line (ESPN box score); the Rams lost 31-27 to Seattle but the carries prop itself cashes. (9 car, 55 yds)
“We going to go Colby Parkinson here over two and a half catches Give me three catches and we cash that ticket. That's going to be another hidden gem for me.”
Colby Parkinson caught 3 passes for 62 yards for the Rams in the NFC Championship, clearing the 2.5-reception line (ESPN box score). (3 REC, 62 yds)
“I'm going to take here just in the highlight Gaethje here, plus 195. It's going to be my bet a little, win a whole lot in the feature fight, main fight here on the card.”
Justin Gaethje beat Paddy Pimblett by unanimous decision (48-47, 49-46, 49-46) at UFC 324, T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas; the Gaethje moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“I think the wrong team is favored. I like Denver here straight up 20-17 over the New England Patriots.”
DEN 7, NE 10 — The Patriots beat the Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship; Denver's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Let's go with the Patriots and the Broncos under 42 and a half as our lock of the day.”
DEN 7, NE 10 — Patriots beat Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship; combined 17 points clears under 42.5 (ESPN box score).
- Jared Stidham under 19.5 pass completions won
- Courtland Sutton under 4.5 receptions won
“First off, Jarrett Stidham. Under 19 and a half pass completions for the game, plus 100. So I think the path for win or for Denver to stay in this game is to run the ball more than normal. So if they do that, eats up clock here. Also, they want to limit the number of possessions. They don't want 11, 12, 13 possessions. more possessions usually means more scoring more passing they would love to have a 13 10 17 14 game here that to them would be perfect so jared stidham could he throw the ball you know 20 25 maybe 28 times yeah he could throw the ball that many times but i just don see them having 20 or more completions So I think they love to have 50 55 or the minimum 40 rushing attempts here and limit it to 7 8 possessions So the first part here is I'm going to go Jared Stidham under 19 and a half pass completions plus 100. They want to let the defense determine who wins this game. And then the other player prop that I like is the receiver, Cortland Sutton, under four and a half receptions, minus 130.”
Both legs hit in the AFC Championship: Jared Stidham completed 17-of-31 passes (under 19.5) and Courtland Sutton caught 3 passes (under 4.5) for Denver in the loss to New England (ESPN box score). (Stidham 17/31 comp; Sutton 3 REC)
“I'm going to go with a lock here right out of the gate. Level two lock. Nebraska moves to not 18 19 tonight believe it or not at home against Washington level two luck”
NEB 76, WASH 66 — Nebraska beat Washington 76-66 at home; the Huskers' moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“See, all we need is one catch over eight and a half yards. Love it here. Like I said, nice little hidden gem.”
Jordan Whittington had no receptions and no receiving yards for the Rams in the NFC Championship loss to Seattle (his only stats were 5 kick returns for 116 yards), missing the 8.5 receiving-yards line (ESPN box score). (0 REC, 0 YDS (5 KR, 116 yds))
“Wait till probably Friday, maybe Saturday. I think total gets up to over 90. And we're going to go under, under the rushing total here for Kenneth Walker III versus the Seattle's, sorry, versus the LA Rams. It's going to be not my wrong team favorite, my wrong player favorite.”
Kenneth Walker III rushed 19 times for 62 yards and a TD for Seattle in the NFC Championship win over the Rams, well under any reasonable rushing-yards total (ESPN box score). (19 car, 62 rush yds, 1 TD)
“I'm going to take Toronto plus the points, might even put some on the money line here, plus three and a half, four points. I think it's the way to go.”
TOR 145, GS 127 — Raptors beat the Warriors 145-127, an 18-point margin that Toronto covers as +3.5 underdogs (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to take Ohio State, lay the seven and a half with them against Minnesota as our college basketball blowout special.”
OSU 82, MINN 74 — Ohio State beat Minnesota 82-74 in overtime, an 8-point margin that covers -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“And two 9-9 teams here, you're like 8.5 points. That's a lot of points here for a team that's 0-5 in conference play. Well, it's going to be a hidden gem. Kansas State blowout tonight here over Utah.”
KSU 81, UTAH 78 — Kansas State beat Utah only 81-78, a 3-point margin that falls short of the -8.5 line (ESPN box score).
“we're going to go over 71 and a half rushing yards here that's going to be a blowout special”
Mark Fletcher Jr. rushed for 112 yards on 17 carries for Miami in the CFP National Championship loss to Indiana, over the 71.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (17 CAR, 112 YDS)
“We're going to go with over 225 passing yards at minus 112. So a very reasonable number to lay and also, I think, a reasonable number for him to get to. Now, the last four games, Mendoza has not reached 225 passing yards. You say, well, why is he going to break it here against this tough Miami defense? Because Miami, they do a great job of stopping the run. And they've done that all throughout the postseason. So you wonder if Kurt Signetti is going to make Mendoza beat this Miami team through the air and not just run the ball. And we know they have Surratt, who's a great receiver as well. But here's another couple other things. 15 games Indiana's played this year. In 14 of those games, Mendoza's completed at least a 30-yard pass. You say, well, how does that impact 225 yards? They can get those long passes downfield. It just depends how many they can get. Also, the last four games that Mendoza has not reached 225 yards, here's been his completion numbers. 8, 15, 14, and 17. That's not a lot of completion. So if he can get into maybe the early or the low 20s as far as completions, I think he could eventually get to this number. And I know not a handicapping angle necessarily, Lee. This guy's coming home. And I think that, you know, depending on how the game unfolds, that Kurt Signetti is going to want him to get his numbers, but he's not just going to have him throw for 150 yards. If the game, let's just say, is out of hand or whatever it is that we see Indiana dominate, maybe he'll have him throw the ball a bit more, get that number up to really celebrate him. I think Mendoza has a chance to get over this Heisman Trophy winner. Let's take over 225 passing yards at Bandool, minus 112, for our college football playoff hit and gem.”
Fernando Mendoza completed 16 of 27 passes for 186 yards for Indiana in the CFP National Championship win, under the 225-yard line (ESPN box score). (16/27, 186 YDS)
“We're going to go with Carson Beck, anytime touchdown, 10-1.”
Miami's three touchdowns in the CFP National Championship were two Mark Fletcher Jr. rushing scores and a Carson Beck touchdown pass to Malachi Toney; Beck himself did not rush or catch a touchdown, so the anytime-TD prop does not cash (ESPN box score). (0 rush/rec TD for Beck (1 passing TD thrown))
“I'm going to take the eight and a half points. Believe it or not, I have Miami winning this game 27-24.”
IU 27, MIA 21 — Indiana beat Miami 27-21 in the CFP National Championship, a 6-point margin that Miami covers as +8.5 underdogs (ESPN box score).
“i think the easier winner here is to go under under 40 and a half to 41 total points It going to be a level two lock”
NE 28, HOU 16 — Patriots beat the Texans 28-16 in the AFC Divisional Round; the combined 44 points goes over the 40.5 total (ESPN box score).
“i'm gonna go with the los angeles rams as our blowout special”
LAR 20, CHI 17 — Rams beat the Bears 20-17 in overtime in the NFC Divisional Round, winning outright (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go under 22 completions here for Brock Purdy.”
Brock Purdy completed 15 of 27 passes for 140 yards in the 49ers' 41-6 NFC Divisional loss to Seattle, under the 22-completion line (ESPN box score). (15/27, 140 YDS)
“Colston Loveland under five and a half receptions. Another wrong player favorite.”
Colston Loveland caught 4 passes for 56 yards for the Bears in the NFC Divisional overtime loss to the Rams, under the 5.5-reception line (ESPN box score). (4 REC, 56 YDS)
“My lock of the day, level three lock all the way up. Denver lay the one point against Buffalo.”
DEN 33, BUF 30 — Broncos beat the Bills 33-30 in the AFC Divisional Round, covering -1 by a 3-point margin (ESPN box score).
“We're going to take the Buffalo Sabres' first period against Montreal as our NHL. Hidden Gem.”
Buffalo and Montreal were tied 2-2 after the first period (Buffalo went on to win 5-3), so Sabres-to-win-the-1st-period does not cash (ESPN box score). (1st period: BUF 2, MTL 2 (tie))
“Wrong team favorite. I like Miami Heat tonight plus two against Boston.”
BOS 119, MIA 114 — Celtics beat the Heat 119-114, a 5-point margin that busts Miami +2 (ESPN box score).
“seattle lay the seven and a half over san francisco So this is going to be a level two lock.”
SEA 41, SF 6 — Seahawks routed the 49ers 41-6 in the NFC Divisional Round, covering the -7.5 spread by a 35-point margin (ESPN box score).
“we're going to go with the Wyoming Cowboys here getting one and a half against the San Diego State Aztecs this evening”
SDSU 74, WYO 57 — San Diego State beat Wyoming 74-57, a 17-point margin that busts Wyoming +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“This is going to be a blowout special just for John Calipari here. Arkansas minus 10 and a half over South Carolina.”
ARK 108, SC 74 — Arkansas routed South Carolina 108-74, a 34-point margin that covers -10.5 (ESPN box score).
“Low out special Tuesday night. OKC gets that revenge for losing to San Antonio all three times this year in three different cities at home.”
OKC 119, SA 98 — Thunder beat the Spurs 119-98 at home, winning outright (ESPN box score).
“We're taking Bucky Ball and Texas A&M plus the nine and a half points. It's going to be my hidden gem.”
TENN 87, TA&M 82 — Tennessee beat Texas A&M 87-82 in overtime, a 5-point margin that Texas A&M covers as +9.5 underdogs (ESPN box score).
“I'm laying the three points. I'm taking a team that's been much better all season and better down the stretch here. I said it you know there's a couple teams that can do some damage and Houston is definitely one of them lay the three here this is going to be my blowout special here for the Houston Texas”
HOU 30, PIT 6 — Houston beat Pittsburgh 30-6 in the AFC Wild Card, a 24-point margin that covers Texans -3 (Wikipedia 2026 NFL playoffs).
“you were embarrassed, it was a terrible effort against Charlotte. I think hitting the road here will be good for them. Let's take the points with the Utah Jazz plus 13.5 at Cleveland as our NBA hit and gem.”
UTAH 123, CLE 112 — Utah Jazz beat Cleveland Cavaliers 123-112; an outright win comfortably covers Jazz +13.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm going to go with the under four and a half receptions, DK Metcalf. That's going to be not my wrong team favorite, my wrong player favorite, DK Metcalf, under four and a half receptions. tonight in their game against Houston, Texas.”
DK Metcalf caught 2 passes for 42 yards for Pittsburgh in the AFC Wild Card loss to Houston, under the 4.5 receptions line (Wikipedia 2026 NFL playoffs). (Metcalf 2 REC, 42 YDS)
“Give me the Chargers here, the L.A. Super Chargers. Wrong team favored. Chargers 24-20 over the Patriots.”
NE 16, LAC 3 — New England beat Los Angeles 16-3 in the AFC Wild Card; Chargers moneyline busts (Wikipedia 2026 NFL playoffs).
“So for our wrong team favorite, I'm going to look at the Oregon Ducks tonight, getting three and a half against Indiana.”
IU 56, ORE 22 — Indiana beat Oregon 56-22 in the Peach Bowl, a 34-point margin that busts Oregon +3.5 (Wikipedia CFP results).
“And I think they're going to be mercifully let down here. I think Philadelphia, easy winner here. This is going to be a level three lock to end the week. I like Philadelphia here, 27-10.”
SF 23, PHI 19 — San Francisco beat Philadelphia 23-19 in the NFC Wild Card; Eagles moneyline busts (Wikipedia 2026 NFL playoffs).
“Josh Allen quarterback that where the difference here between these two teams and I just don trust Trevor Lawrence here I like Buffalo here 31 over Jacksonville All you got to do is lay a point. We'll go with a level two lock.”
BUF 27, JAX 24 — Buffalo beat Jacksonville 27-24 in the AFC Wild Card, a 3-point margin that covers Bills -1 (Wikipedia 2026 NFL playoffs).
“I'm going to go with the Ducks here. I think this is their shot to bounce back here as a heavy dog after losing at Philadelphia on Tuesday. I think this is the spot here. Let's go full game with the Anaheim Ducks against Carolina as our NHL. hidden gem”
CAR 5, ANA 2 — Carolina beat Anaheim 5-2; Ducks moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm going to go under 13 and a half rushing attempts for DeAndre Swift. Not going to be my wrong team favorite, my wrong player favorite here in the action on Sunday, Saturday night between Chicago and Green Bay.”
DeAndre Swift had 13 carries for 54 yards and a TD for the Bears in the NFC Wild Card win over Green Bay, meeting the 13.5 Under line (Wikipedia 2026 NFL playoffs). (Swift 13 CAR, 54 YDS)
“so we're going to go under four and a half receptions for Indiana wide receiver Elijah Surratt in Friday night's game”
Elijah Sarratt caught 7 passes for 75 yards and 2 TDs for Indiana in the Peach Bowl rout of Oregon, well over the 4.5 receptions Under line (Wikipedia Peach Bowl box score). (Sarratt 7 REC, 75 YDS)
“So I like him, even though it's minus 150. John Harbaugh, it's going to be our first luck of the day to go to the New York Giants as their next head coach.”
John Harbaugh, fired by the Ravens on Jan 6, 2026, was officially hired as the New York Giants' head coach on January 20, 2026 (Wikipedia).
“It was a great win, but now a short underdog here. Let's take the Toronto Raptors over the Charlotte Hornets for our NBA blowout special.”
TOR 97, CHA 96 — Toronto Raptors beat Charlotte Hornets 97-96 on an Immanuel Quickley buzzer-beater; Raptors moneyline cashes (ESPN scoreboard).
“Line's three and a half. I wish it was two and a half or three, but I think Miami's going to be the right side here. I think they win in cover here, 30 to 20. It's going to be a level two lock.”
MIA 31, MISS 27 — Miami beat Ole Miss 31-27 in the Fiesta Bowl, a 4-point margin that covers Miami -3.5 (Wikipedia CFP results).
“We're going to start Tuesday with a blowout special here. Michigan, I think they win this game by 25 to 35 over Penn State tonight in college football action and stay undefeated. It won't even be close.”
MICH 74, PSU 72 — Michigan beat Penn State 74-72; Michigan moneyline cashes (ESPN scoreboard).
“I go with the Georgetown Hoyas here, plus two and a half at DePaul.”
DEP 56, GTWN 50 — DePaul beat Georgetown 56-50, a 6-point margin that exceeds Georgetown +2.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“So I'm going to take the points, seven and a half points a year. We're going to go with a, like I said, a hidden gem on the Washington Wizards.”
WSH 120, ORL 112 — Washington Wizards beat Orlando Magic 120-112, an 8-point margin that covers Wizards +7.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“The line here is the Knicks minus two and a half, and they've lost three straight, but don't fall for the trap. This is going to be my blowout special. The Knicks over the Detroit Pistons tonight”
DET 121, NY 90 — Detroit Pistons beat New York Knicks 121-90; Knicks -2.5 spread busts by a wide margin (ESPN scoreboard).
“and we're going to take Utah in the first period tonight. It's around minus 110, and a couple things on this matchup.”
The 1st period between Utah Mammoth and New York Rangers ended scoreless 0-0 (Mammoth won 3-2 in OT), so Mammoth to win the 1st period did not cash (ESPN scoreboard/recap). (1st period: UTA 0, NYR 0 (tie); final UTA 3, NYR 2 (OT))
“so i'm gonna go with my lock right out of the gate on monday ohio state money line minus 145 to get the job done and get a win and knock off undefeated nebraska on monday night in the huge big 10 action”
NEB 72, OSU 69 — Nebraska beat Ohio State 72-69; Ohio State moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“The Steelers won 27-22. Two main things stuck out to me. D.K. Metcalf was absolutely dominant. Seven catches, 148 yards, two touchdowns. Well, you know, he's not playing now. Watching the Steelers last week on offense, it is painful. I mean, it is like you're watching a lower-level offense here. All the receivers, their one-twos and threes, They're like fives, sixes, and sevens or seven, eights, and nines on other teams. They just can't get open. They get no separation at all. Not great at catching the ball. It just seems like Aaron Rodgers has absolutely no connection with these guys. It's like they're starting off in preseason. So that's problem number one. First game, Ravens, even though they lost 27-22, they didn't settle for three field goals. They dominated play. In fact, 420 to 318, over 100-yard advantage. So whether it's Lamar Jackson playing or Tyler Huntley, Tyler Huntley can run and throw also. And he didn't look great when he was with Miami, but he's been in this system for so many years on and off, and he looks very comfortable there. So the Steelers' defense without TJ Watt, even if he does play, he's not going to be close to 100%. They just don't have players. They don't have guys. I mean, there's no bite to that defense. So I'm going to go with Baltimore here. I'm going to lay the three to three and a half.”
PIT 26, BAL 24 — Steelers beat the Ravens 26-24, a 2-point margin that busts Baltimore -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“But I'm going to take the Saints here with the points. They're getting three against Atlanta.”
ATL 19, NO 17 — Falcons beat the Saints 19-17, a 2-point Atlanta margin that stays within New Orleans +3 (ESPN box score).
“So I like New England here. going to be my blowout special over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.”
NE 38, MIA 10 — Patriots routed the Dolphins 38-10, so the New England moneyline pick cashes (ESPN box score).
“we're gonna go with a wrong team favored miami straight up here”
MIA 24, OSU 14 — Miami beat Ohio State 24-14 in the Cotton Bowl, so the Miami moneyline pick cashes (ESPN box score).
“I would say I like Michigan plus the points against Texas. Michigan, last year they beat Alabama in that bowl game, and everyone thought all of a sudden Alabama is going to win easy. But what we've seen is coaching changes. Even interim coaches really does not matter as much as it used to years ago. Usually you win against teams playing with interim coaches. But I think Michigan is going to be just fine. They recruit some blue bloods. And Texas, you know, down the top four running backs in the transfer portal. So they might have to throw early and often. I think Michigan will be ready for it. Quickly, your thoughts. Seven, seven and a half points is a lot.”
TEX 41, MICH 27 — Texas beat Michigan 41-27 in the Citrus Bowl, a 14-point margin that busts Michigan +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“Change things up now College basketball A lot of conference play underway And we going to take a look at a play in the Big East for our hidden gems To find a diamond in the rough you need to dig a little deeper for those hidden gems. We are going to look at DePaul taking on Villanova tonight. DePaul seeking its first Big East win right now. A 12 and a half point dog. We're going to take the points with them against Villanova. They're playing in Philadelphia tonight. DePaul so far. There are two losses coming to St. John's and UConn, so not a lot of shame in that. They hung with St. John's. They lost by 18 at home to UConn, and this is more of a fate of Villanova than really backing DePaul here. Villanova's been great under Kevin Willard here in his first season taking over after leaving Maryland last year, 10-2 so far, and the last few wins, beating Wisconsin in overtime beating Seton Hall, but both as dogs. And now you're laying a lot of points here at home against a DePaul team that, yeah, we know they're bottom tier of the Big East. And also with Villanova, prior to these last few wins, a lot of wins against lower tier competition, trying to just clean up against those teams. And yeah, it's a good win over Seton Hall. Seton Hall's improved in Wisconsin and even beating Pitt convincingly. But still, laying this amount of points after being a dog the last two games, and they have Butler on deck Saturday on the road. I think this is kind of a get-through game for Villanova. So let's take the points with DePaul in this game against Villanova as our college basketball hit and gem.”
NOVA 71, DEP 66 — Villanova beat DePaul 71-66, a 5-point margin that stays within DePaul +12.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go over, over 58 and a half receiving yards for Indiana wide receiver Elijah Surratt. This is going to be my level three lock to end 2025.”
Elijah Sarratt caught 4 passes for 40 yards for Indiana in the Rose Bowl rout of Alabama, under the 58.5 receiving yards line (ESPN box score). (4 REC, 40 YDS)
“So I'm going to go with the wrong team favorite. Carolina Panthers pulled the upset on Saturday against the Tampa Bay Bucs”
TB 16, CAR 14 — Buccaneers beat the Panthers 16-14, so the Carolina moneyline pick busts (ESPN box score).
“Now you host the Sacramento Kings coming up this evening. And I like the Kings, plus 8.5 against the Clippers. And the Kings, who had been playing a little better before they were blown out by the Lakers on Sunday. It was on the second of a back-to-back after they beat Dallas at home on Saturday. And just a bad spot against the Lakers. J.J. Reddick called out his team before that game. The Lakers really played well there on Sunday. But that was the first non-cover for Sacramento in the last six games. But a couple numbers here. That the Clippers, they are 1-7 against the spread this season as a favorite of five points or more. So I think that now the expectations have changed in the Clippers. They had picked up some underdog wins against the Pistons and against the Rockets. And I think here that now you may be not getting up for this one as much against the Kings who have struggled this entire season. So let's take the points with Sacramento coming up on Tuesday night as they face the Clippers.”
LAC 131, SAC 90 — Clippers routed the Kings 131-90, a 41-point margin that busts Sacramento +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“buck 99 and Marcel Reed just 237 we're gonna go here with a lock on the under 243 and a half total passing yards here for Julian Sand I think he goes way under this total here Miami slows down”
Julian Sayin threw for 287 yards (22/35) in Ohio State's Cotton Bowl loss to Miami, well over the 243.5 passing yards Under line (ESPN box score). (22/35, 287 YDS)
“against the Portland Trail Blazers and the Blazers off of a nice win yesterday over the Boston Celtics at home. The Celtics had been on fire and the Blazers tripped them up yesterday. But now Dallas back at or Portland back at it tonight, hosting Dallas. Portland's a two and a half point favorite. The Mavericks, they've lost six in a row on the road. And you know what? I don mind that because they lost to Golden State on Christmas and then just didn play well at Sacramento at all They were just terrible on Saturday They were short favorite Now they flipped to a short underdog here Dallas did rally past Portland in the first meeting. Also want to throw this number at you that Portland off a win since November six, they're two and six. So they don't do well off a victory. And I just think this is a spot here where Dallas can catch Portland after the The Blazers played well in the second half to beat the Celtics last night. So let's take the Mavericks as our hidden gem in the NBA.”
POR 125, DAL 122 — Trail Blazers beat the Mavericks 125-122, a 3-point Portland margin that busts Dallas +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“over 64 and a half receiving yards, minus 115 for Drake London. It's going to be my birthday”
Drake London caught just 1 pass for 4 yards in the Falcons' 27-24 win over the Rams, well under the 64.5 receiving yards line (ESPN box score). (1 REC, 4 YDS)
“We're going to lay the points to the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. They are hosting the Milwaukee Bucks, and Memphis around a five-and-a-half-point favorite here. And one of the keys is Milwaukee off a big win over Indiana. A few nights ago, they caught the Pacers on the second of a back-to-back after Indiana was up big on Boston, blew that game. They came back home, and the Bucks took care of them. And the Bucks still without Giannis Antetokounmpo. But here's a couple numbers, though. Milwaukee, eight straight losses off a win, so they have not been able to put together back-to-back wins in a long time. Also, they are 0-7 in their last seven games as a road dog. Not against the spread, just straight up, because they've covered a couple times as a heavy dog. But in this spot, I think Memphis can take care of business. Memphis back home after they beat Utah a few nights ago. And the last one, Memphis 5-1 against the spread this year as a home favorite of 5.5 or less. Their last two home games, they lost to Washington, Utah outright, but they were heavy, heavy favorites in those games. This is more manageable. Let's lay the points with the Grizzlies tonight against the Bucs as our NBA blowout special.”
MEM 125, MIL 104 — Grizzlies beat the Bucks 125-104, a 21-point margin that easily covers Memphis -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with a wrong team favored. New Mexico gets the win here. Something like 27-20 over Minnesota.”
MINN 20, UNM 17 — Minnesota beat New Mexico 20-17 in overtime in the Rate Bowl, so the New Mexico moneyline pick busts (ESPN box score).
“I think the wrong team is favored. I think the Houston, Texas do it again, just like they did last year to the chargers, wrong team favored Houston, Texas over the chargers on Saturday afternoon.”
HOU 20, LAC 16 — Texans beat the Chargers 20-16, so the Houston moneyline pick cashes (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take the points of Penn State here in the pinstripe bowl. On Saturday, they're getting three against Clemson. Now, a couple things here. Number one, we know Matt Campbell's coming as the head coach of Iowa State. He's not coaching this game, obviously. But you know that what's coming up around the corner, Penn State hopes to get on track. And also with Terry Smith, who was the interim coach, they really played hard for him down the stretch. They played well, and they should have beat Indiana. They had a chance to beat Indiana. Indiana went down the field, and Fernando Mendoza, the touchdown pass at the end in that game. They hung with Iowa. I know they got blown up by Ohio State, but that's okay. I'm not going to hold it against them. And they beat some teams down the stretch. Maybe not great, but they're still wins, still confidence builders. And I think for Clemson, Lee, that's like their Super Bowl being South Carolina. Like, that was a big win for them at the end of the season. I don't want to say they're not motivated for this game. I just think Penn State is more motivated for this game against Clemson. Also, Kate Klubnick didn't have a great year after last year through 36 touchdown passes at 16. This year was a little banged up. I'm going Penn State here. I think they finish off on a high note with Terry Smith before they shift over to Matt Campbell next year. Let take the points of Penn State against Clemson in the pinstripe bowl at Yankee Stadium coming up on Saturday afternoon as our college football hidden gem”
PSU 22, CLEM 10 — Penn State beat Clemson 22-10 in the Pinstripe Bowl, a 12-point margin that covers Penn State +3 (ESPN box score).
“Lay the three and a half here. It's going to be a level two lock.”
BYU 25, GT 21 — BYU beat Georgia Tech 25-21 in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, a 4-point margin that covers BYU -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“You're getting one and a half points here. It's going to be my luck of the day. Cal over Hawaii tonight in the Hawaii bowl.”
HAW 35, CAL 31 — Hawaii beat California 35-31 in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve; Cal's -4 margin busted the +1.5 line (ESPN).
“And it's time now for our Hidden Gems. To find a diamond in the rough, you need to dig a little deeper for those Hidden Gems. the Lions head to Minneapolis they've been struggling to say the least they had this long streak of bouncing back after a loss but they fell short against Pittsburgh on Sunday so consecutive losses for them first time in several years they've lost back-to-back games but also we'll see what they do here in a revenge spot against Minnesota now the total is 43 and a half and for this game we're gonna take the under 43 and a half the first matchup in Detroit Minnesota”
MIN 23, DET 10 — Vikings beat the Lions 23-10 on Christmas Day; the combined 33 points stayed under the 43.5 line (ESPN box score).
“San Antonio Spurs plus the nine to nine and a half at OKC on Christmas Day.”
SA 117, OKC 102 — Spurs beat the Thunder 117-102 on Christmas Day behind De'Aaron Fox's 29 points; San Antonio's +15 margin covers the +9.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the five and a half here on Tuesday night. I think the Miami Heat blow out the Toronto Raptors tonight in the NBA.”
TOR 112, MIA 91 — Raptors beat the Heat 112-91 behind Scottie Barnes' 27 points; Miami's -21 margin busted the -5.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Illinois just ran them out last night. Good blowout there. Let's continue, Lee, with our theme of another blowout special. Oh, boy. Last one out. Turn off the lights. This one's a blowout. the Rockets continuing their road trip in Englewood tonight against the Clippers they get the Lakers coming up on Christmas so it's been a long road trip for uh Houston and they've dropped three of four but all three losses have come in overtime at Sacramento on Sunday they blew a 25 point lead at New Orleans also uh they had another uh loss in overtime and this uh this Rockets team they are just looking to oh it was the Denver game because they had played Denver twice. They lost them earlier and then beat them the second time. But also Houston beat the Clippers by two the last time they faced them at home. Now laying seven and a half against this LA team that just routed the Lakers a few nights ago. And the Clippers have won back-to-back games once this season Also they were 0 against the spread at home before that Lakers victory I just think that KD and the Rockets that they come out tonight And after blowing a couple big leads the last few losses they will come out Play well Let lay the points not mess around Let's take the Rockets tonight against the Clippers, the late-night game at NBC.”
LAC 128, HOU 108 — Clippers beat the Rockets 128-108 on 41 points from Kawhi Leonard; Houston's -20 margin busted the -7.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Let's go with a pick them to minus one here on Western Kentucky with a blowout special.”
WKU 27, USM 16 — Western Kentucky beat Southern Miss 27-16 in the New Orleans Bowl; the +11 margin covers the -1 line (ESPN).
“Under 46.5 points between San Francisco and Indianapolis on Monday night football.”
SF 48, IND 27 — 49ers beat the Colts 48-27 on Monday Night Football; the combined 75 points blew past the 46.5 Under line (ESPN box score).
“Illinois. Last one out. Turn off the lights. This one's a blowout. Illinois and Missouri, they meet in their annual matchup in St. Louis, the gateway, whatever you want to call it. But they're meeting tonight in Illinois, an eight and a half point favorite against Missouri. We're going to lay the points with the Fighting Illini. And normally on the show, I like to play a lot of dogs. But in this situation, I can't make a case for Missouri. Number one, Missouri strength of schedule, 351st in college basketball. That's not good. They have one winning as a top 100 team. That's against Minnesota, who's a bottom tier Big Ten team. They 0 against top 65 teams Now looking at the fighting Illini fourth in the nation in offensive adjusted efficiency Also their three losses Alabama UConn and Nebraska Three really good teams We see how well Nebraska playing what UConn has done. Obviously, Alabama, they lost a close game at the United Center to the Crimson Tide and three wins against top 40 teams. Last year, Illinois barely beat Mizzou, but I think this year they blow them out. So let's lay the points. I'm not going to mess around with Missouri and they have a tough schedule in the SEC right out of the gate. Let's lay the points with Illinois here to blow up Missouri in our Monday blowout special.”
ILL 91, MIZ 48 — Illinois routed Missouri 91-48 in the Braggin' Rights rivalry game; the +43 margin easily covers the -8.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I love over nine and a half receiving uh rushing yards here for brock purdy it's going to be my ball it's going to be my lock of the day level two lock”
In the 49ers' 48-27 win over the Colts, Brock Purdy rushed for 11 yards on 2 carries, clearing the 9.5 line (ESPN box score). (2 CAR, 11 YDS)
“So I like Denver. They're just laying three points here. This is going to be a level three lock on a Friday. Denver Broncos 30-13 over the Jacksonville Jaguars.”
JAX 34, DEN 20 — Jaguars upset the Broncos 34-20, ending Denver's 11-game win streak; Denver's -14 margin busted the -3 line (ESPN box score).
“So speaking of blowouts, the Wisconsin Badgers, the four and a half point favorites here, I'm taking the Badgers.”
NOVA 76, WIS 66 (OT) — Villanova beat Wisconsin 76-66 in overtime in the Milwaukee Hoops Showdown; Wisconsin lost outright, busting the -4.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Noah Whittington, Oregon Ducks running back, over 82.5 rushing yards on Saturday.”
In Oregon's 51-34 CFP First Round win over James Madison, Noah Whittington rushed for just 24 yards on 4 carries, well under the 82.5 line (ESPN box score). (4 CAR, 24 YDS)
“New York Islanders, money line, minus 140 over the Vancouver Canucks on Friday night.”
VAN 4, NYI 1 — Canucks beat the Islanders 4-1 behind Kiefer Sherwood's hat trick; New York Islanders moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“I don't think Carolina's a playoff team. Carolina's improved. Tampa Bay's got to get this one. And I think laying three on the road, a lot of people want to lean towards Carolina as the underdog here with all the trends going towards them. I'm taking Tampa Bay. I'm taking the better quarterback in Baker Mayfield. I think that they bounce back here. 0-6 against the spread the last six. This is the one they get. I think they do. It's do or die for the Bucs. They lose. They're done. If they win, they can salvage their season. Let's lay the points to Tampa Bay here as our blowout special.”
CAR 23, TB 20 — Panthers beat the Buccaneers 23-20 on Bryce Young's two touchdown passes; Tampa Bay lost outright, busting the -3 line (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to go under 32 and a half pass attempts here for CJ Stroud,”
C.J. Stroud went 23/35 for 187 yards in the Texans' 23-21 win over the Raiders; his 35 attempts topped the 32.5 Under line (ESPN box score). (23/35, 187 YDS)
“So I like Miami here plus the points. You're getting three points. It's going to be my wrong team favored. my Miami Hurricanes pull off the upset and head to Big D, Big Dallas,”
MIA 10, TA&M 3 — Miami beat Texas A&M 10-3 in the CFP First Round; the Hurricanes' outright win covers the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“lay the one and a half points here feel strongly about it on Thursday we going to go with the level three lock all the way up on the Seattle Seahawks tonight against the LA Rams”
SEA 38, LAR 37 — Seahawks beat the Rams 38-37 in overtime; Seattle's +1 margin fell short of the -1.5 line, so Seahawks -1.5 loses (ESPN box score).
“It spurs back at home hosting the Wizards. San Antonio, 14 and a half point favorite. But this is purely about situation. I'm taking the points of the Washington Wizards tonight. So San Antonio just lost to New York in the championship of the NBA Cup. They had two games out in Las Vegas. I want to go over this really quickly. This has been San Antonio's schedule since November 23rd. All right. At Phoenix, at Portland, at Denver, at Minnesota. They came home for one game against Memphis on December 2nd. At Orlando, at Cleveland, at New Orleans, at the Lakers. And then the back-to-back games with the Thunder and the Knicks in Las Vegas. Now you're coming home to play the Wizards tonight. Guess what? Tomorrow, you're going to Atlanta to face the Hawks. This is a terrible scheduling spot for San Antonio to lay all these points. Now, on the flip side with the Wizards, we know they have not been very good, but they are off a win over the Pacers. And here's an important note. NBA underdogs this year, after a defensive rating of 100 or less, so after a really good defensive game, they play well. They're 10-3 against the spread. So this is a good spot, I think, to take the Wizards here, catching San Antonio off of, again, a tough loss. You want to win that game against the Knicks and the NBA Cup. People make fun of the NBA Cup, but you want to win that. It's extra money. You're in Vegas. I think that this is just a tough spot for them. I don't know how you get up for this game tonight. We're going to take the points with the Wizards here as our NBA.”
SA 119, WSH 94 — Spurs routed the Wizards 119-94; Washington's -25 margin busted the +14.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Blowout special to start this first Wednesday show The Cavs minus the five I think they win by double digits”
CHI 127, CLE 111 — Bulls beat Cavaliers 127-111, so Cleveland lost outright and never came close to covering -5 (ESPN box score).
“Give me South Florida. Lay the two and a half points here. Level one lock for a show here on Wednesday.”
ODU 24, USF 10 — Old Dominion beat South Florida 24-10 in the Cure Bowl, a 14-point margin against South Florida that blows through USF -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to take them tonight in the first period against the Red Wings as our NHL.”
Utah Mammoth and Detroit Red Wings were scoreless (0-0) after the 1st period (Utah won the full game 4-1), so the Mammoth 1st-period bet did not win (ESPN box score). (1st period: UTA 0, DET 0 (final UTA 4, DET 1))
“I'm going to lay the two and a half. I have Louisiana Lafayette winning this game 35-25. It's going to be a level two lock for the Raging Cajuns.”
DEL 20, UL 13 — Delaware beat Louisiana 20-13 in the 68 Ventures Bowl, a 7-point margin against Louisiana that blows through -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm taking Pittsburgh here. 23-16, lay the three points. It's going to be a level one lock.”
PIT 28, MIA 15 — Steelers beat Dolphins 28-15, a 13-point margin that covers Pittsburgh -3 (ESPN schedule/box score).
“We going to take the Anaheim Ducks tonight Full game against the New York Rangers short dog as our NHL Hidden Jim”
ANA 4, NYR 1 — Ducks beat Rangers 4-1, so Anaheim Ducks moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Houston lost that game at home but like I said has won 11 of the 15 now you're looking at the line you're saying why is Denver only a one and a half point favorite well do have some injuries got a couple guys like no Christian Braun he's been out for a long time no Aaron Gordon and also no Julian Strother so you're like well Strother's not a big guy but they've been starting him he's been coming off the bench. So the problem now is other than Murray and the Joker, their starting lineup isn't good. They got to play the guys off the bench like Tim Hardaway Jr. And also another guy from Miami, Bruce Brown, more extended minutes. So I think that's a problem here. I think Houston will be motivated. Don't fall for the trap in Denver being only a one and a half point favorite at home here. Take the Houston Rockets to extend. That's right. Extended the Denver. I'm sorry. Yeah, Houston Rockets to extend the Denver Nuggets here. Home losing streak to number five here. We're going to take the Houston Rockets here. Wrong team favored over the Denver Nuggets.”
DEN 128, HOU 125 — Nuggets beat Rockets 128-125 in overtime, a 3-point margin that falls short of Houston +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“minus 300 going to be a blowout like said complete showcase this is a kid you're going to want to watch next couple years they feel he has a chance to fight for the title kevin el chino viejos here minus 300 blowout special over giga ninja chikadze”
Kevin Vallejos knocked out Giga Chikadze via TKO in round 2 (1:29) at UFC Fight Night, so Vallejos -300 moneyline wins (UFC.com event page). (Vallejos def. Chikadze, TKO Rd2 1:29)
“We're going to go over 88 and a half yards, rushing against the Cincinnati Bengals for Derrick Henry. That's going to be my first selection here.”
Ravens 24, Bengals 0 — Derrick Henry rushed for 100 yards (11 carries) in the Ravens' 24-0 win over the Bengals, over the 88.5 line (ESPN box score). (Derrick Henry: 100 rush yds (11 car))
“I'm playing under three and a half receptions here for tight end Hunter Henry for the New England Patriots in their game on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills.”
Bills 35, Patriots 31 — Hunter Henry caught 1 reception for the Patriots in their 35-31 loss to the Bills, under 3.5 receptions covers (ESPN box score). (Hunter Henry: 1 reception)
“He's the early favorite. He's a 4-1. Jesse Nitt, the former coordinator on the NFL, 5-1. Be a pretty good prospect. Joe Brady, offensive coordinator, really good, calm plays, 6-1. And I know you like someone at 7-1. you know what? We saw this unfold once at this school, not Michigan, but at the previous school that I think you've peaked there. And that's Marcus Freeman at Notre Dame that we saw Brian Kelly leave to go to LSU. And it's not a disrespect to Notre Dame, but you're not in a conference. And after seeing how everything happened with the college football playoff, that you know, you need a lot of things to break your way. And without you being in a conference and also recruiting is not easy to Notre Dame as it would be to a bigger school. I think now this is the opportunity where you built up enough equity in your resume. You went to the national championship last year. We saw what you did at Notre Dame. Go to the Big Ten now. You go to Michigan, you can recruit, and you don't have the restrictions there, and it's much easier to get to the college football playoff now being a part of the Big Ten. So that's my guy.”
Michigan hired Kyle Whittingham (not Marcus Freeman) as its next head coach, hired Dec 26, 2025 after Sherrone Moore's firing (Wikipedia, 2025 Michigan Wolverines football team).
“So let's go to our blowout special. This one's a blowout. We're going to look at a Western Conference matchup. The Rockets hosting the Clippers tonight in Houston. And James Harden's returned to Houston. I mean, not the first time, but he's back in Houston. And I'm going to take the Rockets' first quarter. They're minus two and a half against the Clippers. Now, why? So the Rockets are off a loss to the Mavericks in their last game. So they'll be looking to rebound. But that also marked the first time in six games this season that the Rockets trailed after the first. Stay with me for a second. In a game after they trailed in the first. They had not trailed the first quarter back to back games this season until the last two against Phoenix and Dallas. In the games after they trailed following the first quarter. The next game they led by 12, 11, 14, 7 and 9 after the first. They come out to good starts. Now on the flip side I will mention this. The Clippers, in six of the past seven games, they have led after the first quarter. But with all that being said, I think the Rockets here, after a not-so-great performance against Dallas in their last game, I think they kind of jump out to a good start here. Clippers have been on this long road trip. Let's take the Rockets' first quarter, win by three, and you're good. Let's take them as our NBA blowout special.”
Rockets 115, Clippers 113 — Rockets and Clippers were tied 29-29 after the 1st quarter (Houston won 115-113), so Houston Rockets -2.5 1st-quarter does not cover (ESPN scoreboard). (Q1: Clippers 29, Rockets 29)
“We're going to go with Teresa Blada, minus 145 over Jamie Lynn Horth. It's going to be our level three lock.”
Jamey-Lyn Horth stopped Tereza Bledá (the pick's ASR-garbled 'Teresinha Bandeira') via first-round TKO at UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape on Dec 13, 2025 (Wikipedia). (Horth def. Bledá, TKO (punches) R1, 2:05)
“Phoenix Suns plus the 14 and a half.”
Thunder 138, Suns 89 — Oklahoma City routed Phoenix 138-89, a 49-point margin, so Phoenix Suns +14.5 does not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“you're like, how can Purdue be a 20-point favorite over Minnesota? Because Minnesota, even though they're 5-4, ended up defeating Indiana 73-64. Well, before that, things have been absolutely dreadful. They are ranked 112th overall by Ken Palm. We're not talking about the top 50, top 75, 112th. They have 123rd rated offense, and also their defense isn't much better. 107th here. they are averaging scoring just 73 points which is 299th here they're the 153rd rated shooting team hitting only 31.7 behind the three-point stripe and that's where they're going to be shooting a lot this game from behind here that ranks them 253rd on the other hand Purdue lost their last game this line might have been bigger if they had won their last game so they played number 10 ranked Iowa State. They're now 8-1. They lost that game 81 They were leading middle of the first half and then all of a sudden went absolutely cold Cyclones went on a 13 run in the second half totally separated them. But it was one game. So I think they're going to be motivated here. Six-rated team, according to Ken Palm here. Number one offensive rating, 31st-rated defensive rating here. Total mismatch here. I think they'll be motivated. They'll blow out Minnesota. Purdue blowout special over the Golden Gophers here tonight in Big Ten action.”
Purdue 85, Minnesota 57 — Purdue beat Minnesota 85-57, a 28-point margin that covers Purdue -20 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Pelicans are 3 and the worst part about that is you have two Sacramento and Indiana are playing They combined for 11 wins They not even the worst teams in the league New Orleans is 3 They hosting San Antonio tonight Spurs a nine-point favorite in the Big Easy. Is it that easy, Lee? Let's check out what your blowout special is for tonight in the NBA. Okay. Yeah. So what do you got? So my blowout here is I know Victor Wendeneva is not playing. We know that. But he hasn't been playing a whole lot this year. He's going to always get hurt. So I think they're used to playing without him. I like Devin Bassel. I think he is an absolute scoring machine. Scored 28 points in the last game. De'Aaron Fox had 25 points, nine assists, and five rebounds. When Yamazade in there, they go up and down the court at, I think, a much faster pace here. They're eighth in scoring. 118.6 points per game, also fourth in the league in two-point percentage, 57.5. They get to the rim early and often. And they also are playing a team that's awful. I mean dreadful, and you hit on it. New Orleans, you look at their top eight guys, three are rookies, and they're not even good. There are no top-end players on this team. Sadiq Bae, Trey Murphy, Jordan Poole's still out. Zion Williamson never plays. I'm almost sure he's not playing again tonight. They're 26 in scoring. They allow 122.6 points per game. That's 29th in the league. They only make 51% of their two-pointers, which is 29th. And even three-pointers, they're 21st in the league here. They're awful. Don't fall for the trap here. I think we have San Antonio lays one on him here. Blowout special, San Antonio Spurs over the New Orleans Pelicans.”
Spurs 135, Pelicans 132 — San Antonio beat New Orleans 135-132, only a 3-point margin, so Spurs -9 does not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“For that reason, I'm going to go Philadelphia Phillies money line minus 130 to 135.”
Chargers 22, Eagles 19 (OT) — Eagles lost to the Chargers 22-19 in OT, so Philadelphia Eagles ML busts (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, Xavier here is minus two. I thought the line was going to be like four, four and a half. So I'm usually pretty sharp on these numbers. And just think that the Musketeers have been rolling offensively here. Obviously, this is a crosstown rivalry here. And they won over St. Francis of Pennsylvania 96-74 a couple days ago. Roddy Anderson dropped 28 in that game. Trey Carroll 21. They shot nearly 50% in that game from the field, and they also hit double-digit three-pointers. Very balanced offense here. They've averaged over 78 points per game. They're also 27th in the country shooting three-pointers. So this is a team that can do it all, even have this kid, Jovan Milvich, and he stretches the defenses with his size and his shooting. So it's a really good home court advantage here. The fans show up there. They get loud. One other thing, I look for ball movement. They're averaging over 18 assists per game, and I think that might give them an edge. Cincinnati's got to lean on their defense here if they're going to want to have a chance. They're holding opponents to just 63 points per game, which is 17th nationally. But their shooting is just so inconsistent. shooting only 43% for the year, and they haven't played great competition, and just 31% from three-point land. So home court, inconsistent offense here at Cincinnati. Give me Xavier.”
Xavier 79, Cincinnati 74 — Xavier beat Cincinnati 79-74 in the Crosstown Shootout, a 5-point margin that covers Xavier -2 (ESPN scoreboard).
“So instead of picking a winner, I'm going to go with bet a little, win a whole lot that the Merab-Peter Jan fight does not go the distance.”
Petr Yan beat Merab Dvalishvili by unanimous decision over the full 5 rounds at UFC 323, so the fight went the distance and the pick lost (Wikipedia UFC 323 results). (Decision (unanimous), Round 5, 5:00 (went the distance))
“Wrong team favorite here. Indiana Hoosiers upset Ohio State. Buckeyes, you don't even need the points.”
Indiana 13, Ohio State 10 — Indiana upset Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship, so Indiana Hoosiers ML covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“i'm going under 42 points here all the way up here level three lock on a friday”
Texans 20, Chiefs 10 — Texans beat Chiefs 20-10, a combined 30 points, so Under 42 covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“So we're going to take the Flames here in the first period against the Wild, and that will be our NHL. Hidden Jim.”
Calgary Flames 4, Minnesota Wild 1 — Wild and Flames were tied 0-0 after the 1st period (Calgary went on to win 4-1), so Calgary Flames 1st-period did not win (ESPN scoreboard). (1st period: CGY 0, MIN 0 (tie))
“So Vittori is minus 115. If you want to take Ferrari or like I do here, mine is just minus 105.”
Brunno Ferreira (the pick's ASR-garbled 'Bruno Ferrara') beat Marvin Vettori by unanimous decision at UFC 323 on Dec 6, 2025 (Wikipedia UFC 323 results). (Decision (unanimous), Round 3, 5:00)
“But I like Georgia here. I'm going to lay the two and a half here. I think they get the revenge for Alabama.”
Georgia 28, Alabama 7 — Georgia beat Alabama 28-7 in the SEC Championship, a 21-point margin that covers Georgia -2.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Give me Detroit here. Lay the three. I think they win this game here. I'll say 28 to 23. Going to be a level two lock.”
Lions 44, Cowboys 30 — Detroit beat Dallas 44-30, a 14-point margin that covers Detroit Lions -3 (ESPN box score).
“Lee, what do you like here? the Broncos a four-point favorite over the Rebels. So UNLV hasn't beaten Boise in a long, long time. And I don't know if they're going to do it again here. So why do I say that? First of all, weather. It's going to be probably high 30s, low 40s, and raining. So you know the UNLV can't like that. I just think that this Boise team, they can miss some guys here and there, but they just come together and they can beat the teams that are similar to them this year. They can't beat the real good teams, and they just can beat these teams like UNLV and the other teams in the conference, and they've done it over and over and over again. So last couple games, they played UNLV in that game, and a couple times after taking leads, And I think the Broncos led something like 14 to three after one. And UNLV pulled to within 28, 24 at halftime. And then they just pulled away. Now, UNLV's quarterback, Anthony Calandria, you know, dual threat guy, pretty good. Not going to be good. He was at Boston College at that kind of level. But he presents some problems to teams. But they ended up winning the game 56-31 in that game earlier this year. They pulled away in the second half. Last week, when they were going through what looked like a tough game, they were trailing Utah State a couple times. They came back. Bryson Barnes was running the football from Utah State, good dual-threat quarterback here. And just think that Mullen, the quarterback, I mean, head coach for UNLV, he's not one of these guys that's going to win big games. So he's never won a conference championship as a head coach, any conference, Mississippi State, Florida. Some people think he might have won one. No, he didn't here. I like Boise State at home. We're going to go with a hidden gem, Mountain West Conference championship game. Get on it now.”
BOIS 38, UNLV 21 — Boise State beat UNLV 38-21 to win the Mountain West Championship, a 17-point margin; Boise State -4 covered (ESPN schedule/results).
“Wrong team favorite here. Arkansas upsets the Louisville Cardinals, gives them their first loss.”
ARK 89, LOU 80 — Arkansas beat Louisville 89-80 in the ACC/SEC Challenge; Arkansas moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“This line's four. This line should be six and a half, seven points here. This is going to be a level three lock on a Wednesday. Cleveland over the Tennessee Titans.”
CLE 29, TEN 31 — Titans beat Browns 31-29; Cleveland -4 lost outright (ESPN recap).
“We're going to go with a wrong team favorite here. We're going to go with the Golden State Warriors plus the 12.”
GS 112, OKC 124 — Thunder beat Warriors 124-112, a 12-point margin exactly matching Golden State's +12 line, so the spread pushed (ESPN box score).
“So my bet a little win a lot is going to be on the Georgia Bulldogs eight to one.”
Indiana 27, Miami 21 (champion) — Indiana beat Miami 27-21 to win the 2026 CFP National Championship on January 19, 2026; Georgia had already been eliminated by Ole Miss 39-34 in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal, so the Georgia futures bet lost (Wikipedia CFP results).
“I'm going to lay the five points. Give me Michigan State here at home. Going to be my blowout special on a Tuesday.”
MSU 71, IOWA 52 — Michigan State beat Iowa 71-52, a 19-point margin; Michigan State -5 covered (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with Virginia laying three to three and a half points here, level two lock over Duke in the ACC championship game on Saturday night.”
UVA 20, DUKE 27 — Duke beat Virginia 27-20 in overtime to win the ACC Championship; Virginia -3.5 lost outright (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to take Villanova here. Lines come down. I think it's manageable. 12 and a half.”
NOVA 74, TEM 56 — Villanova beat Temple 74-56 in the Big 5 Classic, an 18-point margin; Villanova -12.5 covered (ESPN box score).
“So Ramondi Stevenson is under 24 and a half rushing yards.”
Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 40 yards on 12 carries in the Patriots' 33-15 win over the Giants, over the 24.5 Under line (ESPN box score). (12 CAR, 40 YDS)
“I'm laying the seven here. I think that defense and special teams, their kicker, Bory Gallis, has only missed two field goals all year, sets up their offense too. So I'm going to lay the seven at home here. This is going to be a level one lock to start off Monday.”
NE 33, NYG 15 — Patriots beat Giants 33-15 on Monday Night Football, an 18-point margin; New England -7 covered (ESPN box score).
“You're looking to just win the game when you're laying two and a half. I'm going to go with Tennessee here behind their quarterback, Joey Swagular.”
TENN 24, VAN 45 — Vanderbilt beat Tennessee 45-24; Tennessee -2.5 busted (ESPN box score).
“Sometimes you got to hold your nose but that the case and i going to take the cleveland browns on sunday getting four and a half against the san francisco 49ers”
CLE 8, SF 26 — 49ers beat Browns 26-8; Cleveland +4.5 busted (ESPN recap).
“The Blue Hens, a four-point favorite over the Miners. UTEP comes in at 2-9. Delaware 5-6, what do you like here? Down in the West Texas town of El Paso, a lot of problems. UTEP, they are one of the worst teams. In fact, I almost think they should think about the drop in football. I mean, when they're good, they actually get some crowds there, but they are really bad. So Scotty Walden, I thought might be, you know, a decent hire, but just can't attract talent there. And his system is fine. Problem is, just didn't have any players. So he had a five star. he attracted. Malichi Nelson. Malichi Nelson, I believe, started I think it was at USC. Yeah, USC. Didn't pan out there in a year. Thought he was going to start right away. Didn't. Then he moved to Boise State. Couldn't start at Boise State. He ends up at UTEP. He was dreadful. Eight touchdowns, nine interceptions. They finally went to Skyler Locklear. A little bit better. Nine touchdowns, six interceptions. That's part of the problem. Their defense. So they don't score much on offense at all. Their defense, they can't stop the pass at all. One of the bottom 10 pass defenses here. Now they've got to face number eight passing offense of Delaware. Delaware got blown out last week. So people are thinking, oh, you know, two really bad teams. you know, UTEP has to fly cross country. That's right. Cross country. People don't realize how big the state of Texas is. You can drive sometimes 10, 11, 12 hours and still not get out of the state of Texas. It's on, I believe the New Mexico and also Mexico border. So they got to fly. It's probably about a four and a half hour flight all the way to Delaware. Meaningless game. The matchups are really bad. The sacks, I believe UTEP has 28 sacks, but the problem is, and that's good for a bad team. Usually teams are not good. You'll see teams like in the Sun Belt, Conference USA, they'll have like 8, 10, 12, top 15 sacks. Problem is their pass defense, their linebackers in coverage, and their DBs are horrendous. Sometimes not even close to receivers, and on top of that, they can't tackle. So Delaware, if they win this game, they go to a bowl, 6-6. So the game means something to them. It means absolutely nothing to UTEP, and they're dreadful. It's a matchup. Hidden gem here. I love this is a double minor. I'm getting out that minor pickaxe here. Hidden gem, love Delaware over UTEP.”
DEL 61, UTEP 31 — Delaware beat UTEP 61-31, a 30-point margin; Delaware -4 covered (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to say Alabama escapes here, 24-23. But I like five and a half points here. And the Auburn Tigers here, level three lock to end the week.”
ALA 27, AUB 20 — Alabama beat Auburn 27-20 in the Iron Bowl, a 7-point margin; Auburn +5.5 busted (ESPN box score).
“I like Detroit here. I'm going to lay the two and a half.”
DET 24, GB 31 — Packers beat Lions 31-24 on Thanksgiving; Detroit -2.5 busted (ESPN box score).
“So get 3 1⁄2 now. take Dallas.”
DAL 31, KC 28 — Cowboys beat Chiefs 31-28 on Thanksgiving; Dallas +3.5 covered easily with the outright win (ESPN box score).
“I'm taking Kentucky on the money line, plus 130.”
LOU 41, UK 0 — Louisville shut out Kentucky 41-0; Kentucky moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going with Chicago. Seven points to me is too much here. Level two lock for Friday, Black Friday.”
PHI 15, CHI 24 — Bears beat Eagles 24-15 on Black Friday; Chicago +7 covered with the outright win (ESPN box score).
“We're going to take the Houston Cougars here, lay the three and a half over the Tennessee Volunteers.”
HOU 73, TENN 76 — Tennessee beat Houston 76-73 at the Players Era Festival; Houston -3.5 lost outright (ESPN box score).
“I'm laying the 10.5 on the road. Give me the Atlanta Hawks here.”
WSH 132, ATL 113 — Wizards beat Hawks 132-113 behind CJ McCollum's 46 points; Atlanta -10.5 busted (ESPN box score).
“My hidden gem tonight is Dallas first period plus 110. Edmonton is back home after a six-game road swing. They beat the Panthers on Saturday in the Stanley Cup final rematch. So definitely a lot put into that game. I know there's not a lot of revenge there, but at least they got a regular season win over the Panthers. Edmonton has won 2-5 at home in the first period this year. So eight games, they've led once after the first. And Dallas, they have not led through the first period in three straight games. I think here they bounce back after, again, getting tripped up by Calgary. They had a high-scoring game against Vancouver before that. But I think the Stars will be focused here. Edmonton had the revenge spot against the Panthers. Dallas will have that tonight against Edmonton for losing in the Western Conference final last year. So let's go with the Stars. First period against the Oilers as our Hinge.”
Stars outscored Oilers 4-0 in the 1st period en route to an 8-3 win; Dallas 1st period moneyline won (ESPN box score). (1st period: DAL 4, EDM 0)
“I have Pitt winning this game outright, 27-24 over Miami.”
PITT 7, MIA 38 — Miami blew out Pittsburgh 38-7; Pittsburgh moneyline lost (ESPN recap).
“Aggies, Texas A&M 38-34 over Texas, level two lock.”
TEX 27, TA&M 17 — Texas beat Texas A&M 27-17 in the rivalry game; the Aggies moneyline lost (ESPN recap).
“We're going to go with the Carolina Panthers plus 7.5 points.”
SF 20, CAR 9 — 49ers beat Panthers 20-9, an 11-point margin, so Carolina +7.5 did not cover (ESPN recap).
“Let's back the Cleveland Cavaliers here, minus a two and a half on the road at Toronto”
TOR 110, CLE 99 — Raptors beat Cavaliers 110-99, an 11-point margin, so Cleveland -2.5 did not cover (ESPN recap).
“I'm laying the six and a half.”
Arizona State 87, Texas 86 — Arizona State beat Texas 87-86 outright at the Maui-era tournament, so Texas -6.5 lost badly (ESPN box score).
“I like Rico Dattel over 96.5 rushing receiving yards, minus 115 tonight.”
SF 20, CAR 9 — Rico Dowdle totaled 74 scrimmage yards (38 rushing on 6 carries + 36 receiving on 4 catches) for Carolina in the 49ers' 20-9 win, under the 96.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Rico Dowdle: 38 rush + 36 rec = 74 yds)
“Juwan Jennings over three and a half receptions here for the San Francisco 49ers.”
SF 20, CAR 9 — Jauan Jennings caught 5 passes for 41 yards and a touchdown for San Francisco in its 20-9 win over Carolina, over the 3.5-reception line (ESPN box score). (Jauan Jennings: 5 receptions)
“you want to lay 23 plus points i haven't won the game 31 17 i'll take all those gorgeous points in western kentucky wrong team favored”
LSU 13, Western Kentucky 10 — LSU narrowly beat Western Kentucky 13-10, a 3-point margin, so Western Kentucky +23 covered easily (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the four points here.”
Tennessee 31, Florida 11 — Tennessee beat Florida 31-11, a 20-point margin, so Tennessee -4 covered (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take the points, the three points of the Arizona Cardinals at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Now, first off, the Cardinals are 3-7 on the season. Kyler Murray's out. Marvin Harrison Jr., he's out. The appendectomy. I had an appendectomy and it definitely isn't pleasant. I'll put it that way. So that's why I don't fault Marvin Harrison Jr. for taking more time to get back, especially him playing professional football. But besides that point, Jacoby Brissett had 47 completions last week in their loss to San Francisco. That was an NFL record. I didn't realize that nobody ever completed 47 passes in an NFL game. But I think that the Cardinals, after all of these close losses they had to Tennessee, which the game they threw away, which was ridiculous, the Colts, the Packers, they beat Dallas on a Monday night. Coming off a couple blowout losses to Seattle and San Francisco, they were by far the toughest division in the NFL. I mean, yes, you can say the AFC West, but the NFC West just stacked with the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers ahead of them. So you just face two of those teams. Now you're facing Jacksonville, who's off one of their best wins of the season. They destroyed the Chargers 35-6 at home last week. But Jacksonville still, it's been a bit uneven for them. They beat the Chiefs. They lose to the Seahawks. They beat the Raiders. They lose to the Texans. I know that Texan game, they were up big, and they lost. I just feel like this is a tough spot for them going out to the desert. Third road trip in four weeks for them. So I'm going to go with Arizona here after the blowout losses and the back-to-back games. I think here they bounce back. So we're going to take the Cardinals here as our hidden gem”
JAX 27, ARI 24 — Jaguars beat Cardinals 27-24 in overtime, a 3-point margin, so Arizona +3 pushed exactly on the line (ESPN recap).
“So we're going to take Olembeck off here. Minus 200, minus 210.”
Kyoji Horiguchi defeated Tagir Ulanbekov via technical submission (rear-naked choke) in round 3 at UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker in Qatar, so Ulanbekov's moneyline lost. (Horiguchi def. Ulanbekov, technical submission (RNC), Rd 3 2:18)
“And Philadelphia Flyers money line over the St. Louis.”
PHI 3, STL 2 — Flyers beat Blues 3-2 in overtime on a Travis Sanheim goal, so Philadelphia's moneyline cashed (ESPN recap).
“Lamar Jackson over one and a half touchdown passes minus 120”
BAL 23, NYJ 10 — Lamar Jackson went 13/23 for 153 yards with 0 passing touchdowns and 0 interceptions in Baltimore's 23-10 win over the Jets, so the over 1.5 passing TD prop did not hit (ESPN box score). (Lamar Jackson: 13/23, 153 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT)
“lay the six points.”
HOU 23, BUF 19 — Texans beat Bills 23-19, a 4-point margin, so Buffalo -6 did not cover (ESPN recap).
“So I'm going to take the Washington Wizards here, plus all those gorgeous points, 16 and a half points, and going to be my hidden gem.”
MIN 120, WSH 109 — Timberwolves beat Wizards 120-109, an 11-point margin, so Washington +16.5 covered (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the four points in the United Center here.”
Alabama 90, Illinois 86 — Alabama beat Illinois 90-86, a 4-point margin, so Illinois -4 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“Take Kansas City minus three.”
KC 23, IND 20 — Chiefs beat Colts 23-20 in overtime, a 3-point margin, so Kansas City -3 pushed exactly on the line (ESPN box score).
“I'm laying the three points here.”
ORL 121, GS 113 — Magic beat Warriors 121-113, an 8-point Orlando margin, so Golden State -3 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“Give me the nine and a half points in the Kentucky Wildcats.”
Vanderbilt 45, Kentucky 17 — Vanderbilt routed Kentucky 45-17, a 28-point margin, so Kentucky +9.5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“I think you want to get on it now, looking at it, 73-and-a-half. Brock Bowers here receiving yards, plus 105. So I think he sees a game similar to what Trey McBride saw yesterday for Arizona. Used to be tight ends, the totals for receiving yards, 40s, maybe low 50s. But things have changed, and you have to roll with the changes here. They have no one else. I mean, the receivers, they traded away their best receiver already before the trade deadline. My algorithm has him getting around nine, maybe even ten targets here. So I like him to go well over this number in this matchup. I think it's going to close around 75. So it's 73 and a half right now, plus 115.”
DAL 33, LV 16 — Brock Bowers caught 7 passes for 72 receiving yards in the Raiders' 33-16 loss to the Cowboys, under the 73.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Brock Bowers: 72 receiving yards (7 rec))
“I'm going to take the 13.5 points here.”
Oregon 87, Oregon State 75 — Oregon beat Oregon State 87-75, a 12-point margin, so Oregon State +13.5 covered (ESPN box score).
“take the cleveland cavaliers minus three and a half against milwaukee”
Q1: MIL 33, CLE 26 — Cavaliers trailed Bucks 33-26 after the 1st quarter (a 7-point deficit), so Cleveland -3.5 1Q did not cover (ESPN box score, final Cavaliers 118, Bucks 106).
“Yeah, I like the Las Vegas Raiders here, plus the three and a half points, level one lock.”
DAL 33, LV 16 — Cowboys beat Raiders 33-16, a 17-point Dallas margin, so Las Vegas +3.5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“I think this line is like five and a half, six points, South Florida's favorite. Because Navy lost the last two games to North Texas on the road, on the road, and Notre Dame on the road without Horvath, getting ten and a half points. Could be cold. Horvath, I believe, is going to play in this game. I think they were holding them out last week because they knew they probably couldn't beat Notre Dame. They win this game. They actually have a chance. South Florida's the favorite. He's a group of five team. They could be representing all the little teams in America that you don't want, like the Boise States, that get into the tournament. Not saying they're going to do much, but they probably have the best chance. But Navy, I mean, Navy is, their offense is as much and as good as South Florida's, South USF's offense is. I don't know if USF can stop Porvath if he's on a roll. Not just a runner, too. They run the triple option, but he's probably one of the top two or three passing quarterbacks. Maybe the best at Navy since Roger Stalbeck. So the kid is that talented. they uh they can score i mean before before the the two losses scored 42 34 they had a bad game against rice they won though tulsa 42 uab 38 virginia military 52 they always seem the last couple years they played poorly against notre dame they had that one bad game i i think that South Florida's going to have trouble with them here. I'm going to take Navy”
NAVY 41, USF 38 — Navy beat USF 41-38, covering the +6 spread by an outright win (ESPN).
“The Sacramento Kings are getting 11 and a half at Minnesota coming up tonight. And the Kings just lost to the Timberwolves by a pretty insane score. They lost that game 144 to 117. And then they followed that up with a 14-point loss to Denver and a 33-point loss to Atlanta. And before that, they lost at home to Oklahoma City. So four consecutive home losses, their only win on this homestand came when Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler were out for the Warriors. So I'm going to take the Kings here with the points against Minnesota on Friday night.”
MIN 124, SAC 110 — Timberwolves beat Kings 124-110, a 14-point margin that missed the +11.5 cover (ESPN).
“it's six right now I'm taking it now Alabama 31 17 a low out special over Oklahoma”
ALA 21, OU 23 — Oklahoma beat Alabama 23-21; Alabama won only by losing, a 2-point loss that missed the -6 spread (ESPN).
“I'm going to take Sean Brady on the main card to get a submission at plus 460.”
Michael Morales knocked out Sean Brady in round 1 (3:27) at UFC 322, so the Brady-by-submission bet lost (UFC.com official result). (Morales def. Brady by KO/TKO, Round 1, 3:27)
“Both teams are 6-3. Buffalo, 5-1 point favorite. Lee, what do you think here in this inter-conference matchup in Orchard Park? Well, Tampa Bay didn't play well, but Buffalo was horrible against Miami. Josh Allen played one of his worst games. Their receivers, no separation. Their defense, they couldn't stop the off-tackle play, the stretch run off tackle. I mean, it was horrendous. A chain for Miami, over 200 rushing yards. So the way to attack that defense is to run off tackle and to zone block. Tampa probably not going to be able to do it because Bucky Irvin's not there. So big loss for them. They want to throw the football. You see the last couple of weeks, no Mike Evans, broken collarbone, Chris Godwin not ready to come back. Don't have enough weapons there. Teams are forcing them to throw to the tight end. Take out the Miami game. Bill's point differential plus 51, an average of 5.6. Tampa Bay, they're plus 14 for the year, plus 1.5. So I thought that Baker Mayfield was doing a great job, but if his receivers can't get open, he's in trouble. At least Josh Allen can run and do some things there. I think this Buffalo defense matches up with the type of plays that Tampa Bay likes to run a little bit better here. So I'm going to go with a lock here, level two lock, with Buffalo to rebound here.”
BUF 44, TB 32 — Bills beat Buccaneers 44-32, covering the -5.5 spread by over 12 points (ESPN).
“wrong player favored going under Mason Taylor under four and a half receptions minus 135 to”
NE 27, NYJ 14 — Mason Taylor caught 4 passes in Patriots 27, Jets 14, going under the 4.5 receptions line (ESPN box score). (Mason Taylor: 4 receptions)
“And we're going to take the Jazz in the first quarter tonight. They're plus a half against Atlanta.”
Hawks led Jazz 42-33 after the 1st quarter, a 9-point margin that missed Utah's +0.5 1st-quarter spread (ESPN box score). (Q1: ATL 42, UTA 33)
“I'm going to put half my wager on Texas here, plus the six, six and a half and half on the money line.”
UGA 35, TEX 10 — Georgia beat Texas 35-10, a 25-point margin that missed the +6.5 spread (ESPN).
“I'm going to put half my wager on Texas here, plus the six, six and a half and half on the money line.”
UGA 35, TEX 10 — Texas lost to Georgia 35-10, so the Texas moneyline bet lost (ESPN).
“I thought this line should have been Kansas City one and a half, maybe two. You can get four points most places here.”
DEN 22, KC 19 — Broncos beat Chiefs 22-19 on a last-second field goal, covering the +4 spread (ESPN).
“I thought this line should have been Kansas City one and a half, maybe two. You can get four points most places here. I love this game. Wrong team favorite again. Yeah, that's right. Wrong team favorite. at another game, I'm going to put half my money on Denver plus the points and half on the money line. If I hit Denver and Texas, I may not be here on Monday. It might go to the Bahamas for the”
DEN 22, KC 19 — Broncos beat Chiefs 22-19, so the Denver moneyline bet won (ESPN).
“Penn State, lay the seven points here.”
MSU 10, PSU 28 — Penn State beat Michigan State 28-10, covering the -7 spread by 11 points (ESPN).
“we're going to take the Buffalo Sabres here. First period, take them at plus money against the Utah Mammoth as our NHL. Hidden gem.”
Buffalo led Utah Mammoth 1-0 after the 1st period on an Isak Rosen goal, before Utah rallied to win 5-2; the Sabres 1st-period moneyline pick won (ESPN box score). (1st period: BUF 1, UTA 0)
“Take Buffalo plus two here.”
CMU 38, BUFF 19 — Central Michigan beat Buffalo 38-19, a 19-point margin that missed the +2 spread (ESPN).
“We're going to take over, over the posted total here. This should go – I mean, I'm seeing like – I think this total might even rise. I'm seeing right now 242 and a half.”
SAC 108, DEN 122 — Nuggets beat Kings 122-108, a combined 230 points, missing the over 242.5 total (ESPN).
“And we're going to take the Golden State Warriors getting seven and a half at Oklahoma City Stephen Curry expected back in the lineup for Golden State missed the last three games and the Warriors lost two of them The only win was over Indiana who has one victory this season kind of a fall from grace for them But Oklahoma City back from a four road trip”
OKC 126, GS 102 — Thunder routed Warriors 126-102; Golden State lost by 24, missing the +7.5 cover (ESPN).
“And like I said, sprinkle a little on that money line.”
OKC 126, GS 102 — Warriors lost 126-102 to the Thunder, so the Golden State moneyline bet lost (ESPN).
“So we're going to lay the 35 points here. Blowout special. BYU Cougars at home, big time, over the Delaware Blue Hens.”
BYU 85, DEL 68 — BYU beat Delaware 85-68, a 17-point margin that fell short of the -35 spread (ESPN).
“cleveland cavaliers lay the seven and a half blowout special to start the week”
MIA 140, CLE 138 — Heat beat Cavaliers 140-138 in OT; Cleveland lost outright, missing the -7.5 cover (ESPN).
“gonna take Mississippi State here plus the five and a half against Iowa State it's gonna be my wrong team favored”
ISU 96, MSST 80 — Iowa State beat Mississippi State 96-80; Bulldogs lost by 16, missing the +5.5 cover (ESPN).
“They're in Detroit against the Pistons, getting 11.5 points. And I understand Washington's 1-9, straight up against the spread. Detroit is 8-2, straight up 7-3 against the spread. But here's what I like about this situation. Detroit's off a big win at Philadelphia last night, 1-111-108. Now they are coming home with no rest. After this, their next game, I guess the Chicago Bulls, who blew them out in the season opener. So, you know, Detroit's looking forward to that game. And the Wizards, they've been a double-digit dog plenty this year. Lost by 33 to Cleveland, lost by 29 to Boston, lost by 17 to New York, lost by 19 to Oklahoma City. So they've been in this role plenty and just have not been able to come through off a six-point loss to Dallas, a struggling Dallas team, back on Saturday. In fact, the only win for Washington came in their second game, which was at Dallas. And I just look at this as a situational spot. Fading Detroit, heavy favorite here, Bulls on deck, big divisional game. I know Washington has struggled, but let's grab the double-digit points here with the Wizards. So that is my hidden gem taking Washington tonight, plus the points at Detroit.”
DET 137, WSH 135 — Pistons beat Wizards 137-135 in OT; Washington lost by only 2, covering the +11.5 spread (ESPN).
“I just don't think Musgrave is the guy. We're going to go under three and a half receptions, minus 135, level two lock.”
GB 7, PHI 10 — Luke Musgrave caught 3 passes in Eagles 10, Packers 7, going under the 3.5 receptions line (ESPN box score). (Luke Musgrave: 3 receptions)
“We're going over 27 and a half rushing yards for Jalen Hurts. Let's go all the way up, level three lock.”
GB 7, PHI 10 — Jalen Hurts rushed for 27 yards in Eagles 10, Packers 7, just missing the over 27.5 rushing yards line (ESPN box score). (Jalen Hurts: 27 rushing yards)
“So line here is at seven points. I think the public's going to bite, thinking that Missouri came close against Alabama. They might get the job done. Not me here. I think Texas A&M could be my blowout special here.”
MIZ 17, TA&M 38 — Texas A&M beat Missouri 38-17, covering the -7 spread by 14 points (ESPN).
“So fast forward to now, and the Rams are laying four on the road at San Francisco. A couple things here Lee The 49ers they have covered one time this season after a win And they coming off a victory over the Giants last week The Giants who have been beat up due to the injury bug San Francisco had to get that one. They got it. You had them last week. Now, the 49ers have gone seven straight games. Not basing my pick on this, but they've gone seven straight games, alternating wins and losses. So they've gone win-loss, win-loss, win-loss for the last seven weeks coming off a win over the Giants. Now, if you go back to that first game, the Niners and the Rams in L.A., San Francisco took a 14-0 lead, I think, early in the second. After that, the Niners were held to four field goals the rest of the way, and one of them was like a 58- or 59-yard field goal. So the Rams' defense did shut down San Francisco after a bit of a slow start. The Niners went down the field and scored immediately, and the Rams, so many opportunities in that game, and they couldn't finish it off. Now you're a shorter favorite here on the road. They've won the last few seasons in San Francisco, and I get that doesn't mean much here. But the Rams' defense has stepped up recently, and the Niners, it's just been so up and down with all the injuries having to deal with it. And Mac Jones has played well. I don't want to take away from that. But his passing numbers have also gone down a little bit recently the last few weeks. We're going to go with the Rams here, and we're going to lay the points with them on the road”
SF 26, LAR 42 — Rams beat 49ers 42-26, covering the -4 spread by 12 points (ESPN).
“Wrong team favorite, Hawaii plus seven.”
HAW 38, SDSU 6 — Hawaii beat San Diego State 38-6; Hawaii +7 covered easily (ESPN).
“The Lions, an eight-point favorite here on the road. Wow, what a difference a year makes. So, Washington last year goes to the NFC Championship game. And, wow. I mean, talk about things going right. They had one starter, one out of 22, missed the season. This year, I mean, you need a scorecard to figure out all the losses. I mean, it's just incredible. Just shows you what the NFL is all about as far as what they say. Not for long, the injuries, the toll sometimes. So you got to get lucky. Last year, Detroit. Also, they were rolling along. I thought they were the better team. And if they were, you know, with the full complement of players, I think they handle Washington. But they were down either seven or eight starters from the beginning of the year to that playoff. can't win at that level. So you have that rematch there, and trust me, they're thinking about it. Dan Campbell will remind them. I like having a lot of data. You have a lot of data as far as a coach on Dan Campbell. After a loss, how good is he? Well, he's only won the next nine games against the spread. Not straight up, against the spread. So you know the tack practice is probably a little bit tougher. demands a lot of his players on time players coach but he is also demanding i've seen him when he was the interim coach here uh for the dolphins and i'm impressed with him don't know if he's going to win a super bowl but i like him in this situation quarterback situation i think with daniels being out marcus miro is fine and against kansas city they had one of the best halves ever but they still only scored seven points in that half so when they play a pretty good defense I still think Detroit's defense is pretty good, not great. He has trouble. And I think that they're going to have 12, 14 plays that they can maybe script out and start with. And that'll be a great start. And after that, they're in trouble. So I like Detroit's weapons. I'm on St. Brown. I mean, playing him over on player props has been money this year. Gibbs, running back, dynamic. I like players that can run a ball, catch a ball, break a tackle, and go the distance. And they have a lot of those players. and Washington at the running back and receiver position don't have it. Marcus Mariota is going to be running for his life because of the pass rush too. I like Detroit here. We're going to go all the way up here on a Friday. Level three lock Detroit Lions over the rudderless Washington Commanders.”
WSH 22, DET 44 — Lions beat Commanders 44-22, covering the -8 spread by 14 points (ESPN).
“this weekend. Arizona's a four and a half point favorite over KU. Lee, what do you like here with the Wildcats and the Jayhawks? Alright, so Kansas, only road win was at UCF. And they were trailing 14-0. So you're saying, well, what happened? How did they win the game? Well, it wasn't that impressive. The UCF quarterback got hurt and had to put in a backup, and their backups are horrendous. And when Jackson went down, the whole game changed. They came back and won the game. When Jackson hasn't been in there, UCF has been nothing. So it kind of mediates that win there. They're 2-7, last nine on the road. Arizona's offense, top 10 in explosive plays. So the quarterback, Noah Fafita, impressive. Not a tall guy. Not going to be playing in the NFL. Probably like 5'9", 5'10". Thrown for over 2,000 yards this year. 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions. No one talks about him. So running back, I think they have a complimentary running game. Ismail Motti came over from Texas State, my alma mater, and chipped in 530 yards so far, averaging 6.6 yards per carry slew of receiver top five receivers all average at least 12 yards per catch sometimes you see receivers and you're like oh well this guy must be pretty good they averaging six yards of reception eight yards of reception they pushed the ball down the field here Kansas last week played Oklahoma State they won the game didn't cover in fact Oklahoma State with a converted receiver had more first downs in Kansas. I think Kansas' defense is just terrible. I think that they just can't beat pretty good teams. They can only beat the bad teams. They're going back. They're reverting to what they used to be all about. I'm laying the spot here.”
ARIZ 24, KU 20 — Arizona beat Kansas 24-20, a 4-point margin that falls short of the -4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“But I do like the points here with Colorado. They're getting six and a half against West Virginia.”
WVU 29, COLO 22 — West Virginia beat Colorado 29-22; the Buffaloes lost by 7, missing the +6.5 line (ESPN box score).
“So minus 160. Pretty fair price. I outlined it at like 200, 220. So I think there's value here. Blowout special. We're going to go with the earnest medic here.”
Uros Medic TKO'd Muslim Salikhov via punches at 1:03 of round 1 at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown, so his moneyline won (Wikipedia results table, sourced to official UFC results). (Medic TKO (punches) R1 1:03)
“there is Alabama wins 30 to 24, but I'm taking the 10 points. Wouldn't shock me if LSU takes the game down to the wire, maybe wins it outright here. My first lock of the day, a level two lock.”
ALA 20, LSU 9 — Alabama beat LSU 20-9, an 11-point margin that exceeds the LSU +10 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm taking the 9.5 points.”
DEN 10, LV 7 — Denver beat Las Vegas 10-7; the Raiders lost by only 3, covering the +9.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take it and also sprinkle a little money line because if I win,”
DEN 10, LV 7 — Denver beat Las Vegas 10-7 outright, so the Raiders' moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take Golden State here over Phoenix, lay the two-and-a-half, three points.”
SAC 121, GS 116 — Sacramento beat Golden State 121-116; the Warriors lost by 5, missing the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“And I like the over of 232.5. So far, the Jazz on this road trip. three consecutive unders at Phoenix, at Charlotte, and at Boston. And in reality, it's been Utah's offense that has struggled because the defense against Boston gave 103. But before that, they allowed 126 to Charlotte, 118 to Phoenix. But because the Jazz didn't contribute offensively, those games ended up staying under the total. In fact, all four Utah's road games have stayed under the total. But I think it changes tonight against the Pistons, who are off a 114-106 win at Memphis back on Monday. That total was 236 and easily stayed under. But before that, the Pistons beat the Mavericks in Mexico City. That game went over against Orlando. They dropped 135 at home and against Boston as well at home. They had another over. So I think that we'll see some points on the Pistons' side. Maybe Utah can contribute as well. But let's go with a little reversal here. We'll see Utah's first over of the season on the road. Let's take the Jazz and the Pistons over tonight as our hidden gem.”
DET 114, UTAH 103 — Detroit beat Utah 114-103, a combined 217 points that falls short of the 232.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Joseph Morales, minus 290, minus 300 here over Matt.”
Joseph Morales submitted Matt Schnell via guillotine choke at 2:54 of round 1 at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown, so his moneyline won (Wikipedia results table, sourced to official UFC results). (Morales sub (guillotine choke) R1 2:54)
“Only got to lay six points here. Under a touchdown, I like the Oregon Ducks here. Over the Iowa Hawkeyes, it's going to be a level two luck.”
IOWA 18, ORE 16 — Iowa beat Oregon 18-16; the Ducks won by only 2, missing the -6 spread (ESPN box score).
“Lay the seven points now.”
OKC 126, LAC 107 — Oklahoma City beat the LA Clippers 126-107, a 19-point margin that covers the -7 spread (ESPN box score).
“and the Pelicans a two-and-a-half-point favorite here. I like the Pelicans, and here's why. They have played a brutal schedule out of the gate. New Orleans is back home after three road games against Denver, the Clippers, and Oklahoma City. That is hard. And then before that, they played Boston, who was off a three-game losing streak. And before that, they took San Antonio to overtime, who has just one loss in the season. And they were up on Memphis in the first half before losing that game. Memphis came back and won that game. So New Orleans has shown some signs, and also they've played really good teams. No disrespect to the Charlotte Hornets, but the Hornets are not in the Oklahoma City-Denver class. and the Hornets off of a blowout win over the Jazz a few nights ago. That was in the second end of a back-to-back. They were up at the half against Minnesota on Saturday, lost and then came back and they blew out the Jazz on Sunday. And the Hornets have been a dog every game except for the first one against Brooklyn. And Brooklyn hasn't won a game yet and they beat Brooklyn. Who hasn't? But I just think here with Charlotte going on the road, they have not won yet as far as a dog. Yeah, one time they won against Washington. Washington stinks. But besides that, they lost to Philadelphia, Miami as a road dog. I know New Orleans hasn't won a game yet, but I think this is their night. I don't want to call due factorly, but they're going to get this one. So we're going to take New Orleans Pelicans, NBA hit and jam tonight in the Big Easy.”
NO 116, CHA 112 — New Orleans beat Charlotte 116-112, a 4-point margin that covers the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Duke lay the 9.5% over Texas.”
DUKE 75, TEX 60 — Duke beat Texas 75-60, a 15-point margin that covers the -9.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to start off Monday, start off the week with the New York Knicks. Lay the spot 12 and a half over the Washington Wizards.”
NY 119, WSH 102 — New York beat Washington 119-102, a 17-point margin that covers the -12.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“the utah jazz they were blown out by the ball by the charlotte hornets last night and they take on the boston celtics tonight almost jumped ahead a little bit and the celtics a 10 point favorite at home we're going to take the points with the utah jazz the first two games of their road trip have been a bit disastrous getting blown out at phoenix and losing by 23 to an unrested charlotte team last night the hornets had lost to minnesota on saturday but charlotte rebounded uh last night the jazz uh they've showed some signs of life beating the clippers at home convincingly beating the suns at home but then they lost at phoenix after that still looking for their first road win And also, this is the biggest point spread the Jazz are seeing this year. They were nine and a half point dogs against the Clippers and beat them outright. Meanwhile, for Boston, they just lost by 27 points to Kevin Durant and the Rockets back on Saturday. So everyone thinks they would just rebound tonight. But they haven't laid this amount of points all year. And as a favorite, they are one and two against the spread. It's a small sample size. Celtics are a beat up team. I think Utah bounces back here, at least stays within the points. will take them against the Celtics. This is our hidden gem.”
UTAH 105, BOS 103 — Utah beat Boston 105-103 outright on a last-second putback, easily covering the +10 line (ESPN box score).
“eight-and-a-half, probably going to climb to nine, nine-and-a-half, get on it early here. I'm going to take BYU.”
BYU 71, VILL 66 — BYU beat Villanova 71-66, a 5-point margin that falls short of the -8.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Dallas Cowboys lay the three against Arizona on Monday night football.”
ARI 27, DAL 17 — Arizona beat Dallas 27-17 outright; the Cowboys lost by 10, missing the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“And Georgia Tech, a five-and-a-half-point favorite in this one. Lee, what do you like here with the Jackets and the Wolfpack? Well, I'm sitting pretty – that was one of my preseason selections that we gave out to our clients over under. So I identified them. They were one of the teams we liked a lot and still like them just as much. They're not taking really any key injuries. and that's the key. They are one of the six undefeated teams. They are finding ways to win. And even when they started poorly, that first game, I think it was Baylor, they just were awful to start the game. And then came on, and they run the ball a lot more than most teams in these power conferences. But they have a system, and it works. They're finding ways to win. And NC State is finding ways to lose. In fact, NC State has dropped four of the last five games. The only game that they won was against Campbell College. I like their quarterback, C.J. Bailey. Played at Chaminade down here. I think it was the mythical high school national championship. He's really good. But his one weakness, throws interceptions. With his 17 touchdowns, he has seven interceptions. and he lost his best target, Justin Jolly, who has 36 receptions on the year and five touchdowns. It's his number one receiver. It's his security blanket. Loves to go to him when can't find anyone else, and he loves to go down the middle of the field with him. So they're going to have to change their whole game plan. Their defense has been horrendous, and that's why I think they might have a coaching change. defense only 11 sacks in the eight games back to only seven turnovers in the eight games five interceptions and two fumble recoveries here their defense is their weakest part and he just can't recruit good defensive players they don't have a guy that you're afraid of and need to identify where he is on the defensive line linebacker position or in the secondary here so you're thinking laying points on the road well sometimes you gotta lay it if you want to play it here gonna go with a blowout special to start our friday show here i think georgia tech wins this game 31 21 over nc state.”
NCSU 48, GT 36 — NC State beat Georgia Tech 48-36 outright; the Yellow Jackets lost by 12, missing the -5.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with Cody Durden, anywhere from plus 220 to plus 250 here.”
Allan Nascimento submitted Cody Durden via anaconda choke at 3:13 of round 2 at UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama, so Durden's moneyline lost (Wikipedia results table, sourced to official UFC results). (Nascimento sub (anaconda choke) R2 3:13)
“Wrong team favored. Vanderbilt plus three. And Austin wins this game straight up 24-20.”
TEX 34, VAN 31 — Texas beat Vanderbilt 34-31; the Commodores lost by exactly 3, pushing the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the two and a half. Do it now. Don't wait until Saturday night or Sunday. This line will probably go up to three, three and a half. It's going to be a level three lock.”
SF 34, NYG 24 — San Francisco beat the New York Giants 34-24 on the road, a 10-point margin that covers the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So Isaiah likely here over 21 and a half receiving yards, minus 115, is going to be my hidden gem to start out on Thursday.”
Isaiah Likely caught 3 of 4 targets for 60 yards (long 35) in Baltimore's 28-6 win at Miami, clearing the 21.5 receiving-yard line (ESPN box score). (3 REC, 60 YDS)
“We're going to go over 231 total points. I think it's a real strong hidden gem for us.”
OKC 127, WSH 108 — Oklahoma City beat Washington 127-108, a combined 235 points that clears the 231 total (ESPN box score).
“Baltimore Ravens minus seven and a half over the Dolphins here tonight Thursday night football level one lock”
BAL 28, MIA 6 — Baltimore routed Miami 28-6, a 22-point margin that covers the -7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with Blake Snell, under six and a half strikeouts here, minus 105.”
TOR 6, LAD 1 — Blake Snell struck out 7 over 6.2 innings in Toronto's 6-1 World Series Game 5 win at Dodger Stadium; under 6.5 strikeouts busts (ESPN box score). (Blake Snell: 7 strikeouts)
“Boston. The Cavaliers are three and a half point favorite. And I like the Boston Celtics tonight getting the points against the Cavaliers.”
BOS 125, CLE 105 — Boston beat Cleveland 125-105; Celtics +3.5 covers by a 20-point margin (ESPN).
“Missouri State minus the three and a half moves to five and three over FIU”
MOST 28, FIU 21 — Missouri State beat FIU 28-21; Bears -3.5 covers by a 7-point margin (ESPN).
“I'm going to go with the Indianapolis Colts. Maybe Mike Tomlin should hang it up here before he gets fired. I like Indy here. I think they win this game 28-17 over the Steelers.”
PIT 27, IND 20 — Pittsburgh beat Indianapolis 27-20, busting the Colts moneyline pick (ESPN game recap).
“So I'm going to go under six and a half strikeouts. That's right. On Shohei Otani, everyone's going to play the over here. They're figuring he's going to pitch a lot of innings. They don't realize how good these Toronto batters are at fighting off pitches and not striking out. Under six and a half strikeouts, minus 115.”
TOR 6, LAD 2 — Shohei Ohtani struck out 6 over 6.0 innings in Toronto's 6-2 World Series Game 4 win at Dodger Stadium; under 6.5 strikeouts covers (ESPN box score). (Shohei Ohtani: 6 strikeouts)
“I'm going to go with Columbus in the first period, by the way. So that's my play, Columbus first period against Buffalo.”
CBJ 4, BUF 3 — Columbus led Buffalo 1-0 after the first period (Blue Jackets won 4-3 in OT); Columbus first-period moneyline covers (ESPN box score period-by-period). (1st period: CBJ 1, BUF 0)
“We're going to go over six total goals, minus 110.”
BOS 5, NYI 2 — Boston beat NY Islanders 5-2 (combined 7 goals); over 6 covers (ESPN).
“We're going to go with a level two lock over 65 points, North Texas and Navy.”
UNT 31, NAVY 17 — North Texas beat Navy 31-17 (combined 48 points); over 65 busts (ESPN).
“So we're going to go with Marcus Mariota to throw an interception, minus 155. That's going to be my luck of the day right out of the gate.”
KC 28, WSH 7 — Marcus Mariota went 21/30 for 213 yards with 2 interceptions in Washington's 28-7 loss to Kansas City; interception prop hits (ESPN box score). (Marcus Mariota: 21/30, 213 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT)
“So I'm going to lay the one and a half with the Phoenix Suns tonight on the road.”
UTAH 138, PHX 134 — Utah beat Phoenix 138-134 in OT; Suns -1.5 busts by a 4-point margin (ESPN).
“So I'm going to lay the two here. it's going to be my hidden gem we're going with the new orleans pelicans tonight over the boston celtics”
NO 90, BOS 122 — Boston beat New Orleans 122-90; Pelicans -2 busts by a 32-point margin (ESPN).
“and we're going to take Vlad Guerrero Jr. over one and a half total bases tonight, minus 110 when Toronto takes on the Dodgers here in game three of the World Series.”
LAD 6, TOR 5 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 2-for-7 with 2 total bases (both singles) in Los Angeles' 18-inning, 6-5 win over Toronto in World Series Game 3; clears over 1.5 total bases (ESPN box score). (Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 2-for-7, 2 TB)
“home crowd the streak is over doesn't reach 17 kansas at home laying three my hidden gem”
KU 17, KSU 42 — Kansas State beat Kansas 42-17; Jayhawks -3 busts by a 25-point margin (ESPN).
“I have A&M winning this game, even in Death Valley, where they've had tons of problems over the years.”
LSU 25, TA&M 49 — Texas A&M beat LSU 49-25 in Baton Rouge; Aggies moneyline covers (ESPN).
“so we going to take mckenzie dern here to win the strawweight title in the ufc and it going to be my second low out winner”
Mackenzie Dern defeated Virna Jandiroba by unanimous decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46) over five rounds at UFC 321 to win the vacant women's strawweight title (Wikipedia, sourcing ESPN/UFC coverage). (Unanimous decision, 5 rounds)
“I'm going all the way up, level three lock. Pittsburgh Steelers win this game outright, 28-24 over Green Bay.”
PIT 25, GB 35 — Green Bay beat Pittsburgh 35-25; Steelers moneyline busts (ESPN).
“I'm going to take the two points here. I think the Nuggets get the win and the cover. It's going to be my wrong team favored right out of the gate on Thursday.”
GS 137, DEN 131 — Golden State beat Denver 137-131 in OT; Nuggets +2 busts by a 6-point margin (ESPN).
“We will see goals in this Blackhawks-Lightning game coming up this evening at 645 Eastern in Tampa. and the total six and a half and you get plus money on that but I still believe that we're gonna get a lot of goals”
TB 2, CHI 3 — Chicago beat Tampa Bay 3-2 (combined 5 goals); over 6.5 busts (ESPN).
“So we're going to go under four and a half receptions here. TJ Hawkinson in their game tonight against the LA Chargers. It's going to be my hidden gem.”
LAC 37, MIN 10 — LA Chargers beat Minnesota 37-10; T.J. Hockenson caught 2 passes on 3 targets, clearing under 4.5 receptions (ESPN box score). (T.J. Hockenson: 2 receptions)
“I'm laying the four and a half here. It's going to be a level one lock on Thursday.”
OU 26, MISS 34 — Ole Miss beat Oklahoma 34-26; Sooners -4.5 busts by an 8-point margin (ESPN).
“This line should be three, three and a half points, not six and a half points. You might even find some sevens out there. Chicago Bears plus the points here. I haven't won this game outright. So maybe play half your money or three quarters on the Bears plus the points and maybe sprinkle a little money line on the Bears to win five in a row here. It's going to be a level two lock here. Chicago plus the points against Baltimore on Sunday.”
BAL 30, CHI 16 — Baltimore beat Chicago 30-16; Bears +6.5 busts by a 14-point margin (ESPN).
“Hence hidden gem under 55 total points, middle Tennessee state in Delaware tonight.”
DEL 31, MTSU 28 — Delaware beat Middle Tennessee State 31-28 (combined 59 points); under 55 busts (ESPN).
“I do like Charlotte minus four and a half tonight against Brooklyn.”
CHA 136, BKN 117 — Charlotte beat Brooklyn 136-117; Hornets -4.5 covers by a 19-point margin (ESPN).
“So we're going to go under six and a half goals here, minus 135 in the Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres game.”
BUF 4, DET 2 — Buffalo beat Detroit 4-2 (combined 6 goals); under 6.5 covers (ESPN).
“we're going to go with the Cavs here, minus the one and a half. I think they take the bacon here. It's going to be my level two lock.”
NY 119, CLE 111 — New York beat Cleveland 119-111; Cavaliers -1.5 busts by an 8-point margin (ESPN).
“I'm going to lay the two, two and a half here. We're going to start off here as a blowout special.”
LAL 109, GS 119 — Golden State beat the Lakers 119-109, a 10-point margin, covering the -2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to take Pittsburgh here in the first period to lead after 20 minutes against Vancouver. That is going to be, Lee, our hidden gem.”
PIT 5, VAN 1 — Penguins and Canucks were tied 1-1 after the first period (Pittsburgh went on to win 5-1), so Pittsburgh's first-period moneyline did not win (ESPN box score). (1st period: VAN 1, PIT 1 (tie))
“I'm going to take this cheap price of minus 135. I think this line should be 150 or higher, so get on it immediately. I see them winning this game 4-1 or 4-2, So we're going to go with a blowout special here. St. Louis Blues, they take the money here tonight, the NHL.”
STL 1, LA 2 — The Kings beat St. Louis 2-1 in overtime, so the Blues moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“we're going to go with a not a wrong player favorite not a wrong team favorite we'll just call it wtf here george kirby under three and a half strikeouts minus 150 the seattle starting pitcher”
TOR 4, SEA 3 — George Kirby recorded 3 strikeouts over 4.0 innings in the Blue Jays' 4-3 ALCS Game 7 win over Seattle, under the 3.5 line (ESPN box score). (George Kirby: 3 strikeouts)
“And I like the Wild in the first period. They're at basically even money here.”
MIN 3, NYR 1 — Wild and Rangers were tied 1-1 after the first period (Minnesota went on to win 3-1), so Minnesota's first-period moneyline did not win (ESPN box score). (1st period: MIN 1, NYR 1 (tie))
“So I'm going to go over 264 total passing yards for Jerichoff tonight in Detroit.”
DET 24, TB 9 — Jared Goff threw for 241 yards (20/29) in the Lions' 24-9 win over Tampa Bay, under the 264 line (ESPN box score). (20/29, 241 YDS)
“So I'm going to make it Seattle minus two and a half. I want to get it down under three because that's the most common number of games fall on. Seattle minus two and a half. Going to be my lock here. It's going to be a level one lock to start Monday.”
SEA 27, HOU 19 — Seattle beat Houston 27-19, an 8-point margin, covering the -2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“So the line's fairly low, minus 130, 135. We're going to go with Amy and Zahabi here to take down and take out Marlon Vera.”
Aiemann Zahabi (referred to as "Eamon Zahabi") defeated Marlon Vera by split decision at UFC Fight Night Vancouver (UFC.com event page). (Split decision win)
“I'm going to lay the points of the L.A. Chargers. They're laying one and a half in this one.”
LAC 24, IND 38 — Indianapolis beat the Chargers 38-24, a 14-point margin against LA, busting the -1.5 line (ESPN box score).
“you're getting seven and a half points here are you kidding me i think the wrong team is favored i have old miss winning this game straight up wrong team favored old miss 27 24 over georgia”
UGA 43, MISS 35 — Georgia beat Ole Miss 43-35, an 8-point margin against Ole Miss, busting the +7.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I think they pulled the upset. Another wrong team favored. Washington Huskies knock off the Michigan Wolverines.”
MICH 24, WASH 7 — Michigan beat Washington 24-7, so the Washington Huskies moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“I'm taking Jacksonville plus the three points. It's going to be a level two lock.”
JAX 7, LAR 35 — The Rams beat Jacksonville 35-7 in London, a 28-point margin against Jacksonville, busting the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with Shohei Otani over one and a half bases minus 120 yep tonight it's my hidden gem”
LAD 3, MIL 1 — Shohei Ohtani went 1-for-4 with a triple for 3 total bases in the Dodgers' 3-1 NLCS Game 3 win over Milwaukee, clearing the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (1-for-4, 3B, 3 TB)
“Total is only six minus 110. Yeah, we're going to go over six goals here in the New York Islanders and Edmonton Oilers game. It's going to be a level one lock.”
NYI 4, EDM 2 — Islanders beat Edmonton 4-2, a combined 6 goals, pushing the over 6 line (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to take the five and a half points here on Thursday night, take the Cincinnati Bengals. I think they can win this game straight up 24-20. Wrong team favorite, Cincinnati Bengals, plus the points on Thursday night.”
CIN 33, PIT 31 — Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh 33-31, a 2-point win outright, comfortably covering the +5.5 line (ESPN box score).
“George Kirby, Seattle Mariners starting pitcher, over four and a half strikeouts.”
TOR 13, SEA 4 — George Kirby recorded 4 strikeouts over 4.0 innings in the Blue Jays' 13-4 ALCS Game 3 win over Seattle, under the 4.5 line (ESPN box score). (George Kirby: 4 strikeouts)
“So let's go with Chicago plus one 60 St. Louis off a couple of big wins. They're too heavy tonight, I believe. So let's go with the Blackhawks first period against the blues as our hidden gem.”
CHI 8, STL 3 — Blackhawks and Blues were tied 2-2 after the first period (Chicago went on to win 8-3), so Chicago's first-period moneyline did not win (ESPN box score). (1st period: CHI 2, STL 2 (tie))
“We're going to take the Buffalo Sabres money line, plus 105 to plus 110. Like I said, wrong team favorite.”
BUF 8, OTT 4 — Buffalo Sabres beat Ottawa 8-4, covering the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“Level one lock here. Sam Houston stayed at home. Plus two and a half.”
SHSU 17, UTEP 35 — UTEP beat Sam Houston State 35-17, an 18-point margin against Sam Houston, busting the +2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to go with wrong player favored, not wrong team favored, Yoshinubu, Yamamoto under six and a half strikeouts minus 100 tonight.”
LAD 5, MIL 1 — Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw a complete-game shutout with 7 strikeouts in the Dodgers' 5-1 NLCS Game 2 win over the Brewers, over the 6.5 line (ESPN box score). (Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 7 strikeouts)
“So let's take the over 1.5 between Nashville and Toronto in the first period as our hidden gem.”
TOR 7, NSH 4 — Maple Leafs led Nashville 2-0 after the first period (2 combined goals) in Toronto's 7-4 win, over the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (1st period: TOR 2, NSH 0)
“So I'm going to go with the Washington Capitals here. Moneyline minus 110 to 115, blowout special.”
WSH 3, TB 2 — Washington Capitals beat Tampa Bay 3-2 in overtime on Jakob Chychrun's OT winner, covering the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take the three points, three-and-a-half, and the home team here. We're going to go with a level-two lock, BYU.”
BYU 24, UTAH 21 — BYU beat Utah 24-21, a 3-point margin, covering the +3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go under five and a half strikeouts, minus 135 here. Toronto pitcher Trey Yusavage for Monday's game.”
SEA 10, TOR 3 — Trey Yesavage struck out 4 in 4 IP as the Mariners beat the Blue Jays 10-3 in ALCS Game 2, under the 5.5 strikeouts line (ESPN box score). (Trey Yesavage: 4 K in 4 IP)
“So let's go with the over one and a half goals first period between St. Louis and Vancouver tonight in the NHL for our blowout special.”
STL 5, VAN 2 — The Blues and Canucks combined for just 1 goal in the first period (STL 1, VAN 0; final Blues won 5-2), under the over 1.5 first-period goals line (ESPN box score). (1st period: STL 1, VAN 0)
“Zach Ertz, just over 27.5 receiving yards.”
CHI 25, WSH 24 — Zach Ertz caught 6 passes for 43 yards in the Commanders' 25-24 loss to the Bears on Monday Night Football, over the 27.5 receiving yards line (ESPN box score). (Zach Ertz: 6 REC, 43 YDS)
“so i'm gonna go with the over 49 and a half total points here how about this not a level one not a level two but a level three lock all the way up on a monday how about them apples”
BUF 14, ATL 24 — The Falcons beat the Bills 24-14 on Monday Night Football, a combined 38 points, under the over 49.5 total (ESPN box score).
“I don't know if it's going to be a wax job but seven and a half points you know I don't get it here maybe I'm missing something I've seen all these teams these two teams in every single game I think Oregon's clearly 14 to 17 points better I like the Ducks here 40 to 21.”
IU 30, ORE 20 — Indiana upset Oregon 30-20, so the Ducks lost outright and failed to cover -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“Nebraska visits Maryland coming up on Saturday afternoon and Nebraska six and a half point road favoritly i'm going to back the corn huskers here and lay the points with them”
NEB 34, MD 31 — Nebraska beat Maryland 34-31, a 3-point margin that fell short of the -6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to take him by finish, minus 275. Joel Alvarez here by finish here is going to be blowout special.”
Joel Alvarez defeated Vicente Luque by unanimous decision (going the full three rounds) at UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot, not by finish, so the by-finish bet lost (UFC.com official result). (Alvarez def. Luque by unanimous decision (3 rds))
“Bo Collins, minus 135, over one and a half receptions by Hidden Gem.”
NYG 34, PHI 17 — Giants WR Beaux Collins (transcribed as "Bo Collins") recorded zero targets and zero receptions in the Giants' 34-17 win over the Eagles, missing the over 1.5 receptions line (ESPN box score). (Beaux Collins: 0 REC)
“That being the New York Islanders, they are laying 130 in the first period against the Pittsburgh Penguins.”
NYI 3, PIT 4 — The Islanders and Penguins were tied 1-1 after the first period (final: Penguins won 4-3), so the Islanders first-period moneyline did not win (ESPN box score). (1st period: NYI 1, PIT 1 (tie))
“So I'm going to bet a little, win a whole lot on Bryce Harper tonight, over one and a half total bases here, plus 125.”
PHI 1, LAD 2 — Bryce Harper went 0-for-4 with zero total bases in the Phillies' 2-1 NLDS Game 4 loss to the Dodgers, missing the over 1.5 total bases line (ESPN box score). (Bryce Harper: 0-for-4, 0 TB)
“I know the line's five. A lot of games end in three here, but Pittsburgh covered six of the last eight home games here, six of the last eight against the Browns. Browns have covered none. That's right, a goose egg, none of the last seven road games here. So I think Pittsburgh's rolling. Buy week should help them here. Cleveland's also traded one of their cornerbacks. They're just looking for draft picks. They're looking to rebuild, take a look at what they have here. and I expect Sanders to probably get a start in three or four weeks at quarterback when things go south. I like Pittsburgh a lot here. Enough. I'm going to go all the way up here. Pittsburgh Steelers, level three lock, then Thursday.”
CLE 9, PIT 23 — The Steelers beat the Browns 23-9, a 14-point margin that covered the -5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with over one and a half bases on Kerry Carpenter, 3.08 p.m.”
SEA 3, DET 2 — Kerry Carpenter went 4-for-5 with a home run (7 total bases) as the Mariners beat the Tigers 3-2 in 15 innings in ALDS Game 5, well over the 1.5 total bases line (ESPN box score). (Kerry Carpenter: 4-for-5, 7 TB, 1 HR)
“But I'm going to take the LA Kings in the first period coming up this evening. Now, a couple numbers here. First of all, at FanDuel, it's at plus 138.”
LA 6, VGK 5 — The Kings led the Golden Knights 2-0 after the first period (final: Kings won 6-5 in a shootout), so the LA Kings first-period moneyline won (ESPN box score). (1st period: LA 2, VGK 0)
“So I'm going to go with a no runs first inning minus 145.”
CHC 4, MIL 3 — The Cubs scored 4 runs in the top of the 1st inning of NLDS Game 3 (final Cubs 4, Brewers 3), so runs were scored in the 1st inning, busting the no-runs-first-inning bet (ESPN box score). (1st inning: CHC 4, MIL 0)
“Wrong team favorite, number one. Hawaii Rainbows, plus the one and a half.”
USU 26, HAW 44 — Hawaii beat Utah State 44-26, covering the +1.5 line easily (ESPN box score).
“I think the wrong team is favored. Wrong team favored number two Auburn Tigers knock off the Georgia Bulldogs 27”
UGA 20, AUB 10 — Georgia beat Auburn 20-10, so the Auburn moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a third. Wrong team favorite. Missouri wins this game outright 37-34.”
ALA 27, MIZ 24 — Alabama beat Missouri 27-24, so the Missouri moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“So he's sitting at under seven and a half minus one 10. I need him to get the pitch count up, obviously. But that's what he does. Generally, he throws a lot of pitches. The algorithm has him a full strikeout under this number. So sometimes you just got to go with numbers and feel and who they're playing. I'm going to go with a wrong player favorite here. Not the wrong team favorite, Blake Snell, under seven and a half strikeouts.”
PHI 3, LAD 4 — Blake Snell struck out 9 in 6 IP for the Dodgers' 4-3 win over the Phillies in NLDS Game 2, well over the under 7.5 strikeouts line (ESPN box score). (Blake Snell: 9 K in 6 IP)
“my hidden gem, the Brewers and the Cubs are going to go first five under four and a half. You're laying about 120 on this one.”
CHC 3, MIL 7 — Cubs and Brewers combined for 10 runs through 5 innings of NLDS Game 2 (CHC 3, MIL 7), well over the first-5-innings under 4.5 total (ESPN box score/linescore). (F5: CHC 3, MIL 7 (10 total))
“So I'm going to go under 64.5 rushing yards for Travis Etienne here.”
KC 28, JAX 31 — Travis Etienne carried 12 times for 49 rushing yards in the Jaguars' 31-28 win over the Chiefs on Monday Night Football, under the 64.5 line (ESPN box score). (Travis Etienne: 12 CAR, 49 YDS)
“And I think they're there. You know, they're begging you to take Jacksonville as a home dog on a Monday night. Don't fall for the trap here. Level two lock on a Monday. Kansas City Chiefs plus three and a half.”
KC 28, JAX 31 — Jaguars beat the Chiefs 31-28 on Monday Night Football, so Kansas City lost outright and failed to cover -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“i'm going with the under here hit and gem under 42 between the cardinals the titans on sunday”
TEN 22, ARI 21 — Titans beat Cardinals 22-21 on Oct 5, 2025; the combined 43 points go over the 42 total, busting the under (ESPN box score).
“So Puka Nakua over 95.5 receiving yards, minus 115.”
SF 26, LAR 23 (OT) — Puka Nacua caught 10 passes for 85 receiving yards in the Rams' 26-23 OT loss to the 49ers on Oct 2, 2025, staying under the 95.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Puka Nacua: 10 REC, 85 YDS)
“I not worried at all about a letdown after the USC win Their only loss came to Indiana who is a bit of a powerhouse right now So I can throw that one out But the fighting Illini Brett Bielema let go with them back them on the road here laying the nine and a half against Purdue for our secondly blowout special.”
ILL 43, PUR 27 — Illinois beat Purdue 43-27 on Oct 4, 2025; the 16-point margin covers -9.5 (ESPN box score).
“So, Yuri Prohaska, 31-5-1, is going to take on Khalil Roundtree. And Khalil Roundtree, good fighter. I mean, good technical fighter. Nothing wrong with him. He's 14-6. But I think Yuri Prohaska is just more talented. So, sometimes Yuri Prohaska dances around. He's very unorthodox. He goes back and forth between being a right-handed slugger to a southpaw, and he has it all. He can strike. He can submit. He is that talented. He's probably the second most talented fighter in this division. And Roundtree has power, and you've got to stay away from him. But he has over a four-inch reach advantage. So when Roundtree is close, he can get in. if he wades in, I think he's going to take some damage. So I do think that Prohaska is going to knock him out. Not sure whether it's going to be the first or the second round. I would guess probably the second might take him a little while. He dances around. Sometimes does not fight the smartest, but he looked more focused in the last fight. He wants to have another shot for the title, and it looks like the winner of this fight will have it. So I know it's minus 175 to minus 180. don't love to lay you know more than 140 150 but he's clearly the better fighter here more talented and uh you know unless he just gets caught which i i see very unlikely i think he's the right side”
"Yuri Prohaska" is a mis-transcription of Jiri Prochazka, who knocked out Khalil Rountree Jr. in round 3 (3:04) at UFC 320 on Oct 4, 2025 (UFC.com official results). (Prochazka def. Rountree Jr. by KO/TKO, Round 3, 3:04)
“This is the team the type of team type of coaching staff that can put together a game plan and perfect timing to take them down here Wrong team favored We going to go with Denver They upset the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday 24”
DEN 21, PHI 17 — Broncos beat Eagles 21-17 on Oct 5, 2025, winning outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a level two lock on Thursday. The Maryland Terrapins plus the six and a half points. They win the game outright 28-24.”
WASH 24, MD 20 — Washington beat Maryland 24-20 on Oct 4, 2025; Maryland's 4-point loss stays within the +6.5 line, covering (ESPN box score).
“we're gonna go with a hidden gem the Minnesota Golden Gophers plus all those gorgeous points and this is the first time Lee Minnesota's an underdog this season looking back at last year their 11.5 point dog to Penn State covered in a one-point loss nine and a half point dog at home to USC beat them outright 10.5 point dog at Michigan lost by three and grand those are shorter numbers than 24 but still PJ Fleck will get his team up uh as an underdog and uh yeah Minnesota”
OSU 42, MINN 3 — Ohio State beat Minnesota 42-3 on Oct 4, 2025 (not Oct 1 as logged); the 39-point margin blows through the +24 line, busting the Golden Gophers' cover (ESPN box score).
“The Yankees, I'm going to take them in the first five minus a half. And that's around minus 120, 125.”
F5: NYY 3, BOS 2 (Final: NYY 4, BOS 3) — This was AL Wild Card Game 2, not ALDS Game 2 as logged. Yankees led Red Sox 3-2 through 5 innings (final 4-3 Yankees) on Oct 1, 2025, winning the first-five-innings frame outright to cover -0.5 (ESPN box score).
“we going to take that Carolina Panthers here Plus the one point, get on it now.”
CAR 27, MIA 24 — Panthers beat Dolphins 27-24 on Oct 5, 2025; the 3-point margin covers +1 (ESPN box score).
“just take the team total over L.A. Dodgers team total over four and a half runs minus one fifteen level one lock.”
LAD 8, CIN 4 — Dodgers scored 8 runs in an 8-4 win over the Reds in NL Wild Card Game 2 on Oct 1, 2025, clearing the 4.5 team-total line (ESPN box score). (Dodgers team total: 8 runs)
“So what I like tonight, first quarter under, it's about 40 and a half.”
Q1: IND 23, LVA 23 (46 total); Final: LVA 107, IND 98 (OT) — Fever and Aces tied 23-23 in the 1st quarter of WNBA semifinal Game 5 (Aces won 107-98 in OT) on Sept 30, 2025; the 46-point Q1 total goes over the 40.5 line, busting the under (ESPN box score).
“so i i think we've got the better pitcher by a little bit got the better bullpen and by far the better lineup so i'm gonna i'm not going to lay 190 200 i'm going to lay uh i'm gonna lay the one and a half runs and it's plus money plus 110 i'm going to say the wrong team is favored because they're plus 110 laying one and a half runs la dodgers here my wrong team favored for tuesday night opening night”
LAD 10, CIN 5 — Dodgers beat Reds 10-5 in NL Wild Card Game 1 on Sept 30, 2025; the 5-run margin covers -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Texas Tech minus 11.5 against the Houston Cougars.”
TTU 35, HOU 11 — Texas Tech beat Houston 35-11 on Oct 4, 2025; the 24-point margin covers -11.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to go Garrett Wilson, over 63.5 receiving yards.”
MIA 27, NYJ 21 — Garrett Wilson caught 6 passes for 82 receiving yards in the Dolphins' 27-21 win over the Jets on Sept 29, 2025, clearing the 63.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Garrett Wilson: 6 REC, 82 YDS)
“So first five innings, game one, Tigers-Guardians on Tuesday. Let's go with the under of three runs.”
F5: DET 1, CLE 0 (Final: DET 2, CLE 1) — Through 5 innings of AL Wild Card Game 1, Tigers led Guardians 1-0 (final 2-1 Tigers); the 1-run F5 total stays under 3.0 (ESPN box score).
“Five and a half, we're going to go under five and a half receptions. He's a good receiver. Cortland Sutton, he might have a bunch of yards, But the key is under five and a half receptions here in the game against, like I said, the Cincinnati Bengals.”
DEN 28, CIN 3 — Courtland Sutton caught 5 passes for 81 yards in the Broncos' 28-3 win over the Bengals on Sept 29, 2025, staying under the 5.5-reception line (ESPN box score). (Courtland Sutton: 5 REC, 81 YDS)
“So we're going to go over one and a half touchdowns for the Cincinnati Bengals. Level one lock to start the week.”
DEN 28, CIN 3 — Cincinnati's only points in the 28-3 loss to Denver on Sept 29, 2025 came from a 1st-quarter Evan McPherson field goal; the Bengals scored zero touchdowns, missing the 1.5-team-TD line (ESPN scoring plays). (Bengals team touchdowns: 0)
“And I like the Giants here plus the points getting six and a half against the Chargers It just the spot I not going to give you a lot of numbers I not going to do it But Cam Scadaboo he has two touchdowns the last two weeks”
NYG 21, LAC 18 — Giants beat Chargers 21-18 on Sept 28, 2025; NYG's +3 margin covers the +6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the six and a half points. Do it now before the line goes up. Blowout special, the Gamecocks 38-17 over Kentucky.”
SC 35, UK 13 — South Carolina beat Kentucky 35-13 on Sept 27, 2025; the 22-point margin covers -6.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Then I think Ohio State blows it open, wins this game 38-24. I'm going to lay the eight-and-a-half points.”
OSU 24, WASH 6 — Ohio State beat Washington 24-6 on Sept 27, 2025; the 18-point margin covers -8.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“So Joe Adele, over one and a half bases, minus 105, is going to be my first hidden gem.”
KC 9, LAA 4 — Jo Adell went 2-for-4 with a home run (5 total bases) as the Angels lost to the Royals 9-4, clearing the 1.5-total-bases line (ESPN box score). (Adell 2-for-4, 1 HR, 5 TB)
“South Alabama takes on North Texas. And I'm taking South Alabama plus 12 and a half.”
UNT 36, USA 22 — North Texas beat South Alabama 36-22; Jaguars lost by 14, outside the +12.5 line (ESPN box score).
“on the kenneth walker over i'm on the under 14 and a half rush attempts minus 150 and like i said”
SEA 23, ARI 20 — Kenneth Walker III carried 19 times for 81 yards in Seattle's 23-20 win over Arizona, well over the 14.5-carries under line (ESPN box score). (Kenneth Walker III 19 CAR, 81 YDS)
“I think the best way to look at this fight is not take Matthews laying the 400 or even Magni plus 315 I going to go over two and a half rounds here minus 135 So different ways to skin a cat here and different ways to bet you know football games baseball”
Neil Magny submitted Jake Matthews via brabo choke at 3:08 of round 3 at UFC Fight Night Perth, so the fight went past 2.5 rounds.
“We're going to take Seattle here minus the one point as a level two lock.”
SEA 23, ARI 20 — Seahawks beat the Cardinals 23-20; Seattle's 3-point win covers the -1 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with Max Fried over five and a half strikeouts, minus 145 for the New York Yankees tonight.”
NYY 8, CHW 1 — Max Fried struck out 7 over 7 innings as the Yankees beat the White Sox 8-1, clearing the 5.5-strikeout line (ESPN box score). (Max Fried 7.0 IP, 7 K)
“it's been a back and forth all season long with Aaron Judge of the Yankees Cal Raleigh of the Mariners as far as the MVP who would win it and Judge missed some time due to injury and Aaron Judge has fantastic numbers but now it's down to a fan duel minus 115 for Cal Raleigh to win the MVP of the American League along with Aaron Judge and Aaron Judge was a huge favorite last week but still Lee I'm gonna back Cal Raleigh to win the MVP after seeing this number plummet the way it has”
Aaron Judge won the 2025 AL MVP award with 17 first-place votes to Cal Raleigh's 13; Raleigh finished runner-up, so the futures bet on Raleigh busts (per BBWAA voting results). (Judge won AL MVP, 17 first-place votes to Raleigh's 13)
“We're going to go with Carlos, the Black Jag Olberg, minus 250 over Dominic, the Devastator Reyes.”
Carlos Ulberg KO'd Dominick Reyes by punches at 4:27 of round 1 in the UFC Fight Night Perth main event; Ulberg moneyline cashes.
“Let's go with the Reds in the first five innings tonight, laying about 120 against the Pirates as our second hitter gem.”
F5: PIT 1, CIN 0 (final PIT 4, CIN 3, 11 innings) — Pittsburgh led Cincinnati 1-0 through 5 innings (Pirates' only run scored in the 4th, Reds scoreless through 5) in an eventual 4-3, 11-inning Pirates win; Reds F5 moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“They finally get over the hump at home, laying three against the Oregon Ducks in prime time. It's going to be my level two lock. I'm taking the Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday night.”
ORE 30, PSU 24 (2OT) — Oregon beat Penn State 30-24 in double overtime; Nittany Lions lost outright, missing the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go Bobby Witt Jr. Over one and a half total bases, minus one 15. blowout special number one.”
KC 8, LAA 4 — Bobby Witt Jr. went 2-for-5 with a double (3 total bases) as the Royals beat the Angels 8-4, clearing the 1.5-total-bases line (ESPN box score). (Witt Jr. 2-for-5, 1 2B, 3 TB)
“So let's go with the Phoenix Mercury. Mercury rising. Let's take them first quarter plus two against the Minnesota Lynx.”
Q1: MIN 21, PHX 19 (final PHX 89, MIN 83 OT) — Lynx led the Mercury 21-19 after the first quarter (Mercury won the game 89-83 in OT); the exact 2-point first-quarter margin pushes against Mercury +2 (ESPN box score).
“Texas A&M minus six and a half over Auburn.”
TA&M 16, AUB 10 — Texas A&M beat Auburn 16-10; Aggies won by only 6, short of the -6.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with the no-runs first inning in the San Francisco-St. Louis game, minus 130.”
STL 6, SF 5 — Giants' Heliot Ramos homered in the bottom of the 1st off the Cardinals, scoring immediately and busting the no-run-1st-inning bet (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the Washington Nationals tonight. They are a heavy underdog. We're going to take them in the first five innings this evening. And a couple numbers on why. First, you want to know what the line is, Lee? How crazy this is, what they are in the first five? Some place you get a plus 195. They're at 186 at FanDuel.”
F5: ATL 8, WSH 5 (final ATL 11, WSH 5) — Braves led the Nationals 8-5 through 5 innings (Atlanta scored 1-1-5-1 across the first four frames) en route to an 11-5 win; Nationals F5 moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go Lamar Jackson over 42 and a half rushing yards here, minus 115.”
DET 38, BAL 30 — Lamar Jackson rushed 7 times for 35 yards in Baltimore's 38-30 loss to Detroit, under the 42.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Lamar Jackson 7 CAR, 35 YDS)
“I'm going to go under 53 and a half total points. This is going to be a level one lock to start on, on Monday.”
DET 38, BAL 30 — Lions and Ravens combined for 68 points (38+30), well over the 53.5 total (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go under. This is going to be my hidden gem under 17 and a half total points for the New Orleans Saints.”
SEA 44, NO 13 — Seahawks routed the Saints 44-13; New Orleans scored only 13 team points, under the 17.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Broncos lost twice to the Chargers last year, including on the road. It was a Thursday night game. Denver led by 13. Chargers came back and beat them. Chargers were laying three in that game. They're laying three again in this one. I just think that Denver here, second time around, I do like them getting the points. A lot of love for the Chargers. I get it. Justin Herbert's played well. The defense has been great. They shut down Patrick Mahomes in the Brazil games. Gino Smith did nothing last week. And Bo Nix still trying to break out, waiting for that. But I think a little double revenge spot, Sean Payton, two excellent coaches, Sean Payton and Jim Harbaugh there. But I'm going to go with the Broncos here with the points.”
LAC 23, DEN 20 — Chargers beat the Broncos 23-20; Denver's exact 3-point loss pushes against the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“And let's take Tampa Bay first five against Boston as our wrong team favorite coming up on Friday, Lee.”
F5: TB 3, BOS 2 (final BOS 11, TB 7) — Tampa Bay led Boston 3-2 through 5 innings (Rays scored in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd; Red Sox answered in the 2nd and 3rd) before Boston's 7-run 8th flipped the final to Red Sox 11, Rays 7; Rays F5 moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I like Pittsburgh here minus a small spot. We're going to end the week with a level three lock.”
PIT 21, NE 14 — Steelers beat the Patriots 21-14; Pittsburgh wins outright, moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Well you know what They play a prevent defense with four or five minutes to go and probably allow a touchdown Or you know could be tight Three four five six points Either way I taking the seven and a half I think Miami wins. I'm going to say 28-24 of Florida gets the cover.”
MIA 26, FLA 7 — Miami beat Florida 26-7; Gators lost by 19, well outside the +7.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm sure you could probably figure out who I like in this game, Georgia State and Vandy. I'm wearing the Georgia State blue today. So, all right, this one I'm going with. Georgia State, Lee, plus the 27.5 against Vanderbilt.”
VAN 70, GAST 21 — Vanderbilt routed Georgia State 70-21; Panthers lost by 49, well outside the +27.5 line (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with Aaron Judge here. Over one and a half total bases. Minus 125.”
NYY 7, BAL 0 — Aaron Judge went 0-for-2 with two walks (0 total bases) as the Yankees beat the Orioles 7-0; under the 1.5 total-bases line (ESPN box score). (Judge 0-for-2, 2 BB, 0 TB)
“I'm going to take the six points here. We're going to go with a level two lock on a Thursday. Detroit, Lions here, plus the points. I have them winning this game outright, 31-28.”
DET 38, BAL 30 — Lions beat Ravens 38-30 on Monday Night Football; Detroit's 8-point margin covers the Lions' +6 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go over one and a half bases here on Hunter Goodman of the Colorado Rockies,”
MIA 8-COL 4 — Hunter Goodman went 3-for-4 with a double for Colorado (4 total bases) in an 8-4 loss to Miami, clearing the 1.5-total-bases line (ESPN box score). (Hunter Goodman: 3-for-4, 1 2B, 4 TB)
“I'm going to go with the Texas Rangers minus a half in the first five. You can get it at even money.”
F5: TEX 2-HOU 5 — The Astros led the Rangers 5-2 through 5 innings en route to a 5-2 win; Texas F5 -0.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Wisconsin, low-out special, minus 10 over Maryland on Saturday.”
WIS 10-MD 27 — Maryland beat Wisconsin 27-10, a 17-point margin against Wisconsin's -10 spread; the Badgers lost outright, busting the pick (ESPN).
“We're going to go with Michael King, not Stephen King, over four and a half strikeouts, minus 140.”
NYM 8-SD 3 — Michael King was tagged for just 2 strikeouts (3.0 IP, 10 H, 8 ER) as the Padres lost to the Mets 8-3, under the 4.5-strikeout line (ESPN box score). (Michael King: 2 K in 3.0 IP)
“we're going to go with the Mariners. Minus a half run in the first five. You can get it around minus 110 at most books.”
F5: SEA 10-KC 1 — Mariners led the Royals 10-1 through 5 innings en route to a 12-5 win, comfortably covering -0.5 F5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to take San Diego here. They're plus like 105, 110. I'm going to call that my second blowout special.”
NYM 8-SD 3 — Mets beat Padres 8-3; San Diego moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Nebraska pulls off the upset here. Wrong team favorite also, 24-21.”
NEB 27-MICH 30 — Michigan beat Nebraska 30-27; the Nebraska upset moneyline pick busts (ESPN).
“So we're going to go with Mitchell Parker under three and a half strikeouts, minus 135.”
WSH 3-ATL 11 — Mitchell Parker was tagged for 1 strikeout over 5 IP as Atlanta beat Washington 11-3, well under the 3.5-strikeout line (ESPN box score). (Mitchell Parker: 1 K in 5.0 IP)
“So let's go with the Pirates tonight as a short underdog. First five against the Cubbies at PNC Park.”
F5: PIT 0-CHC 3 — The Cubs led the Pirates 3-0 through 5 innings en route to a 4-0 shutout; Pittsburgh F5 moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the three points. There are some three and a half. There's some three. Shop around. Take the Chargers. Minus three. It's going to be my blowout special.”
LV 9-LAC 20 — Chargers beat Raiders 20-9, an 11-point margin that clears the -3 spread (ESPN).
“Nico Collins over 76 and a half receiving yards. It's going to be the level two lock to start the week.”
HOU 19-TB 20 — Nico Collins had 52 receiving yards for Houston in a 20-19 loss to Tampa Bay, under the 76.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Nico Collins: 52 receiving yards)
“wrong team favored right out of the gate the streak is over Tennessee upsets Georgia”
TENN 41-UGA 44 — Georgia beat Tennessee 44-41 in overtime; the Tennessee moneyline pick busts (ESPN).
“Clemson's laying 3.5 here.”
GT 24-CLEM 21 — Georgia Tech upset Clemson 24-21; Clemson lost outright, failing to cover -3.5 (ESPN).
“Blowout special, Notre Dame. Lay the 6.5. They win 30-17 over Texas A&M.”
ND 40-TA&M 41 — Texas A&M beat Notre Dame 41-40; Notre Dame lost outright, busting the -6.5 spread (ESPN).
“Jets. But I think Seattle here, this line tells you a lot, getting two and a half here on the road after they weren't great against San Francisco.”
PIT 17-SEA 31 — Seahawks beat Steelers 31-17, a 14-point margin that clears the +2.5 line (ESPN).
“I like Jacksonville. I think they're going to win the game straight up. We're going to go with a level three lock to end the week. Jacksonville Jaguars, 26-23 or the Cincinnati Bengals.”
CIN 31-JAX 27 — Bengals beat Jaguars 31-27 on a late Jake Browning TD; Jacksonville moneyline busts (ESPN).
“Over nine and a half rushes. I mean, it's minus 100 here. He got 10 carries last week. Don't think that Austin Eckler is the guy, you know, just not close to where he was. What happens is you see these players dressed up in the uniform and they look the same, but they're just not the same. They realize this is the guy here. So I think they lean on him in a tough conference matchup here. I think his quickness is going to be key here. And I think by the end of the year, maybe mid-season are going to be like, God, this guy's getting 20-plus carries here. So we're going to go with Bill. Chikori Krosky-Meritt is his real name. Over nine-and-a-half rushes. Heavy workload for him tonight.”
WSH 18-GB 27 — Ja'Corey Croskey-Merritt had 4 rushing attempts for 17 yards for Washington in a 27-18 loss at Green Bay, well under the 9.5-attempt line (ESPN box score). (Croskey-Merritt: 4 att, 17 yds)
“I am going to take as my blowout special, the Kansas State Wildcats on the road laying one.”
ARIZ 23-KSU 17 — Arizona beat Kansas State 23-17; Kansas State laid -1 and lost outright, busting the spread (ESPN team schedule).
“We're going to take Diego Ferreira, and we're going to say he is the wrong fighter favorite here, plus 110.”
Alexander Hernandez beat Diego Ferreira by TKO in round 2 (3:46) at UFC Noche/Fight Night San Antonio; the Ferreira moneyline pick busts (UFC.com official result).
“Jordan Alvarez over one and a half total bases, minus 115.”
HOU 3-TOR 2 — Yordan Alvarez went 2-for-4 with two singles (2 total bases) as Houston beat Toronto 3-2; 2 TB clears the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (Yordan Alvarez: 2-for-4, 2 TB)
“And we're going to go the first five-inning play tonight on the Cincinnati Reds at Petco Park.”
F5: CIN 0-SD 1 — The Padres led the Reds 1-0 through 5 innings on a Tatis Jr. solo homer in the 5th; Cincinnati F5 moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm laying the small spot, minus 130. This is going to be an easy, easy win for the Boston Red Sox tonight.”
ATH 5-BOS 4 — Athletics beat Red Sox 5-4; Boston moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“We're going to take Miami here minus 17 points over South Florida.”
MIA 49-USF 12 — Miami beat South Florida 49-12, a 37-point margin that clears the -17 spread (ESPN).
“We're going to go with a level two lock, Houston Texans on Monday night over the Tampa Bay Bucs.”
HOU 19-TB 20 — Buccaneers beat Texans 20-19 on Monday Night Football; Houston moneyline busts (ESPN).
“i think he's going to get this over this total here over the one and a half bases by his third at bat so we're gonna go over one and a half bases minus 110 for James Wood it's gonna start off Tuesday as my hidden gem”
WSH 7, MIA 5 — James Wood went 2-for-4 with a double (3 total bases) in Washington's 7-5 win over Miami, clearing the over 1.5 total bases line (ESPN box score). (James Wood: 2-for-4, 1 2B, 3 TB)
“And we're going to go the first quarter play on the Valkyries, plus two against the storm.”
Valkyries outscored the Storm 18-12 in the first quarter, covering the +2 first-quarter spread (ESPN box score). (GS 18 - SEA 12 (Q1))
“So I'm going to lay the one and a half runs here with the L.A. Dodgers minus 135. It's going to be my blowout special.”
LAD 7, COL 2 — Dodgers beat the Rockies 7-2; margin of +5 covers the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to start off Tuesday here with a level two lock on LSU.”
LSU 20, FLA 10 — LSU beat Florida 20-10, so the LSU moneyline cashes (ESPN game page).
“Pete Alonzo, over one and a half total bases here, minus 110, blowout special.”
PHI 1, NYM 0 — Pete Alonso went 2-for-4 with a double (3 total bases) in the Mets' 1-0 loss to the Phillies, clearing the over 1.5 total bases line (ESPN box score). (Pete Alonso: 2-for-4, 1 2B, 3 TB)
“and I am going to go with the Kansas City Royals in the first five innings tonight against the Cleveland Guardians”
Royals trailed the Guardians 0-9 through 5 innings (final Guardians 10, Royals 2), so the Royals F5 moneyline busts (ESPN box score). (F5: KC 0, CLE 9)
“My hidden gem here, Jordan Mason over 35 and a half rushing yards. minus 130 should be a cashing ticket for us.”
MIN 27, CHI 24 — Jordan Mason rushed for 68 yards on 15 carries against the Bears, clearing the over 35.5 rushing yards line (ESPN box score). (Jordan Mason: 15 car, 68 yds)
- Chicago Bears +7.5 (teased from +1.5)
- Under 49.5 (teased from 43.5)
“So we're going to go with a two-team, six-point teaser. Chicago Bears plus seven and a half and the under 49 and a half for a level three lock to start the week.”
MIN 27, CHI 24 — Vikings beat the Bears 27-24; Chicago's +7.5 teased spread covers, but the combined 51 points busts the teased Under 49.5, so the two-leg teaser loses (ESPN box score).
“I think five, five and a half points is way too much here. I think this is a game that's going to come down to the wire. I think Michigan will win the game 24-21 here. It's going to be a level one lock to start the day.”
OU 24, MICH 13 — Oklahoma beat Michigan 24-13 at home; Michigan's margin of -11 misses the +5.5 spread (ESPN game page).
“We're going to take the 17 on the road with Northern Illinois against Maryland coming up on Friday as our Hidden Gem.”
MD 20, NIU 9 — Maryland beat Northern Illinois 20-9 at home; NIU's margin of -11 covers the +17 spread (ESPN game page).
“So, I haven't taken Skeens a whole lot because, you know what? He doesn't win games a whole lot. He puts his team in position to win. But this is going to be my first backing of him, and I'm going to do it a different way. So, the over-under on strikeouts is 6.5, minus 110. The Dodgers strike out an average of nine times per game.”
Paul Skenes struck out 8 over 6.0 scoreless innings against the Dodgers, clearing the over 6.5 strikeouts line (ESPN box score). (Paul Skenes: 6.0 IP, 8 K, 0 ER)
“I think the wrong fighter's favorite here and getting plus 110 and might even go up to 115, 120 by the time the fight starts at about 515, 530. We're going to go with a bet a little, win a whole lot here on Nazardine, that sniper Imaboth over Kai the natural Barajal.”
Nassourdine Imavov beat Caio Borralho by unanimous decision in the UFC Fight Night Paris main event, so the Imavov moneyline cashes (UFC.com official result).
“I think we're going to see something like a 34-27 game. And with that being the case, we're going to go over 47.5 total points. It's going to be a level two lock.”
PHI 24, DAL 20 — Eagles beat the Cowboys 24-20; combined 44 points misses the over 47.5 total (ESPN game page).
“And the first quarter line on this one is minus a half to the Sky, plus a half for Connecticut. We're going to go with the Connecticut Sun in the first quarter tonight.”
Sky outscored the Sun 28-10 in the first quarter, so Connecticut's +0.5 first-quarter spread busts (ESPN box score). (CON 10 - CHI 28 (Q1))
“So I'm going to take the over eight and a half, even if you get nine here, plus 100 at one at nine i think we're going to see like 12 13 runs scored here we're going to go with a low out special milwaukee philadelphia phillies here game over the posted total”
MIL 6, PHI 3 — Brewers beat the Phillies 6-3; combined 9 runs clears the over 8.5 total (ESPN box score).
“I think it's a combined here, wrong team favored and level one Unlocked, Baylor Bears outright 34-27 over SMU.”
BAY 48, SMU 45 (2OT) — Baylor beat SMU 48-45 in double overtime on the road, so the Baylor moneyline cashes (ESPN game page).
“One of my biggest plays for my futures is the New Orleans Saints under five and a half wins.”
The Saints finished the 2025 regular season 6-11, over the under-5.5 season win total (ESPN standings). (6-11)
“So I think you take the six and a half points here and lay the six and a half. I think Arizona is going to win big. I got the score, something like 35 to 13. We're going to go level two lock Arizona Cardinals over the New Orleans Saints.”
ARI 20, NO 13 — Cardinals beat the Saints 20-13; margin of +7 covers the -6.5 spread (ESPN game page).
“So we're going to start off the week with a wrong team favorite, the Athletics, plus the 105, the small spot here. They knock off the St. Louis Cardinals.”
STL 2, ATH 1 — Cardinals beat the Athletics 2-1 on a two-run Ivan Herrera homer, so the Oakland moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“And we're going to go with the Rays' first five plus 110 as our hidden gem.”
Rays trailed the Mariners 2-3 through 5 innings before winning 6-5 late, so the Rays F5 moneyline busts (ESPN box score). (F5: TB 2, SEA 3)
“So I think Max Fried under five and a half strikeouts, minus 140 for the Yankees tonight.”
HOU 1, NYY 7 — Max Fried struck out 5 over 7.0 innings against the Astros, clearing the under 5.5 strikeouts line (ESPN box score). (Max Fried: 7.0 IP, 5 K, 1 ER)
“I'm going to lay the four and a half, Georgia Tech 31-21.”
GT 27, COLO 20 — Georgia Tech beat Colorado 27-20 on the road; margin of +7 covers the -4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“And I'm going to over nine. I thought this line was going to open up like 10 or 10 and a half. So get it now, get it early before it rises to nine and a half, 10 here. Another blowout special over nine runs. Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies again.”
PHI 2, ATL 1 — Phillies beat the Braves 2-1; combined 3 runs falls well short of the over 9 total (ESPN box score).
“Close, hard-fought game, but I think the wrong team's favored. Miami outright 23-20.”
MIA 27, ND 24 — Miami beat Notre Dame 27-24 at home, so the Miami moneyline cashes (ESPN game page).
“let's go with the sky here in the first quarter plus three and a half as our hidden gen”
Chicago outscored Phoenix 22-17 in the first quarter, covering the +3.5 line (ESPN box score); Phoenix won the game 83-79. (CHI 22 - PHX 17 (Q1))
“the number looks high you're thinking six and a half has to go to seven but it's it's that high for a reason here he might have eight nine strikeouts here I'm gonna lay the 145 here this is gonna be like I said a blowout special for Amber Valdez here I think he gets eight nine strikeouts”
Framber Valdez struck out 5 over 7 shutout innings against Colorado, falling short of the over 6.5 strikeouts line (ESPN box score). (Framber Valdez: 5 strikeouts)
“gems it's rebound time for me pirates cardinals we're gonna look at a first five play here under three and a half runs and i understand that's not a lot of runs to to uh play with”
St. Louis and Pittsburgh combined for just 1 run through five innings (Cardinals 1, Pirates 0), under the F5 3.5-run total; Pittsburgh rallied to win 2-1 late (ESPN box score). (F5: PIT 0, STL 1 (total 1))
“They're on the road, Kansas City, so they're going to get at least an extra bat here if they're winning. I'm going to bet a little, win a whole lot. I'm going to lay the one and a half runs, plus 130, wager 100, brings back $130.”
CHW 1, KC 12 — Kansas City routed Chicago 12-1, a +11 margin that covers the -1.5 run line (ESPN box score).
“Alabama, if you like him like I do, you don't want to wait. If you wait to the party, it might be 14 and a half, 15 points. It's 13 and a half point line right now.”
FSU 31, ALA 17 — Florida State beat Alabama 31-17; the -14 margin busts the -13.5 spread (ESPN).
“We're going to take Chris Bassett here over five and a half strikeouts. I think he's going to have seven or eight in this game. Blowout special.”
Chris Bassitt struck out 6 over 5.2 innings for Toronto, clearing the over 5.5 strikeouts line (ESPN box score). (Chris Bassitt: 6 strikeouts)
“So, Lee, any NFL futures that you like at FanDuel? I like the Buffalo Bills. I mean, it's not just because we're watching hard knocks, a lot of people. But, you know, Dolphins fan, it's tough to say this, but I think the Buffalo Bills are loaded. Everyone talks about the offense, but they really helped out the defense in the offseason draft wise and also signing some free agents. So I like them over 11 and a half wins minus 160.”
The Buffalo Bills finished the 2025 regular season 12-5, clearing the over 11.5 season-win total (ESPN schedule/results). (12-5)
“So the Seattle Storm at Indiana tonight. And we're going to take Seattle in the first quarter minus one.”
Indiana outscored Seattle 26-20 in the first quarter, so the Storm -1 first-quarter spread busts (ESPN box score). (SEA 20 - IND 26 (Q1))
“I think the play is Cleveland here, money line, minus 115. I think this line is going to go off minus 125 to 135. So get on it early here. I think they're going to break that six-game losing streak here. My hidden gem, Cleveland Guardians here, money line minus 115.”
CLE 3, TB 0 — Cleveland shut out Tampa Bay 3-0 behind seven scoreless innings from Parker Messick, so the Guardians moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“So let's take Minnesota in the first five innings against Toronto as our first hidden gem lead.”
Toronto led Minnesota 6-1 through five innings (4 runs in the 1st) on the way to a 10-4 win, so Minnesota's F5 moneyline loses (ESPN box score). (F5: MIN 1, TOR 6)
“I'm going to lay the one and a half runs with the Seattle Mariners minus one and a half plus 165.”
SEA 9, SD 6 — Seattle beat San Diego 9-6, a +3 margin that covers the -1.5 run line (ESPN box score).
“Riley Green here for the Detroit Tigers here. Over one and a half bases, minus 125. A low-out special.”
Riley Greene went 2-for-4 with two singles (2 total bases, no doubles) in Detroit's loss to Oakland, still clearing the over 1.5 total-bases line (ESPN box score and play-by-play). (2-for-4, 2 singles, 2 TB)
“We're going to go with a level three lock. That's right, all the way up to start the week. NC State minus 11.5. Bet it now.”
NCSU 24, ECU 17 — NC State beat East Carolina 24-17; the +7 margin busts the -11.5 spread (ESPN).
“I'm going to take the plus 145, and I feel good about it here. My wrong team favorite to start off for Friday, Boston Red Sox.”
NYY 0, BOS 1 — Boston beat the Yankees 1-0 behind seven innings of three-hit ball from Brayan Bello, so the Red Sox moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“We're going to back the Diamondbacks' first five innings minus a half run against the Reds tonight, Lee.”
Arizona led Cincinnati 4-2 through five innings (1st-inning sac fly, 3-run HR by Gabriel Moreno in the 3rd), covering the F5 -0.5; the Diamondbacks went on to win 6-5 in 11 (ESPN box score). (F5: ARI 4, CIN 2)
“I think the only way Austin Hubbard here is going to win, he's not going to win by decision. He's going to have to win by a TKO or submission, and I think it's going to be tough here. So I just don't think he has the skill set. We're going to go with Rong Zhu, the young fighter from China here, minus 250. It's going to be my blowout special for UFC Shanghai.”
Rong Zhu beat Austin Hubbard by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang in Shanghai (Wikipedia, corroborating the event card). (Decision (unanimous) 30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
“Let's lay the 10 here with Western Kentucky over a depleted Sam Houston State team that is in a full rebuild here. it's going to be my level three lock to end the week on locked on bets”
WKU 41, SHSU 24 — Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston State 41-24 in its opener; the +17 margin covers -10 (ESPN).
“And I think Hunter Goodman is going to get it done here. And I think we're going to see a double, maybe even a triple. and a home run. We're going to go over one and a half total bases. And hint, hint, it's going to be on my card for my clients here. It's going to be my blowout special.”
Hunter Goodman went 1-for-2 with a walk and no extra-base hits (1 total base) in the Dodgers' 9-5 win over Colorado (ESPN box score). (1-for-2, 1 TB)
“Okay. So Washington and Connecticut, they're meeting for the second time in three nights. Connecticut beat Washington a few nights ago in D.C. They're hooking up in Connecticut tonight. I'm taking the under first quarter 39 and a half between these teams.”
Washington and Connecticut combined for 27 first-quarter points (WSH 11, CON 16), under the 39.5 total (ESPN box score). (WSH 11 - CON 16 (Q1, total 27))
“Let's take the points. I think Kansas will win the game something like 30 to 23. but I think 13 points is just a little bit too much. It's going to be my level two lock to end Friday.”
KU 31, FRES 7 — Kansas routed Fresno State 31-7; Fresno State's -24 margin busts the +13 spread (ESPN).
“So we're going to go with an over, over eight-and-a-half total runs, minus 105 in the Miami Marlins. The St. Louis Cardinals game is going to be my hidden gem.”
MIA 6-STL 2 — Miami beat St. Louis 6-2, a combined 8 runs, under the 8.5-run total so the over busts (ESPN box score).
“Let's go with the Athletics with no city name as our wrong team favored pick today. we're going to go with the A's.”
ATH 4-MIN 2 — The Oakland Athletics beat Minnesota 4-2 in 10 innings, so Oakland's moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“I think you lay the three points. I think Kansas State gets revenge for the last couple of years and wins this game 27-20. This is going to be my level two luck.”
ISU 24-KSU 21 — Iowa State beat Kansas State 24-21 in Dublin, Ireland, so Kansas State's -3 spread busts (falling by 3, not covering) (Wikipedia).
“And I just think we're going to see a 3-2 type game here with a total at eight here. So we're going to go with the under eight runs. I know everyone's surprised because you look at the offenses and you think, you know, all these guys like Bryce Harper and, you know, on and on through their lineup and the Seattle lineup mashing home runs. But we're going to go with a hidden gem under eight runs here. Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners.”
PHI 6-SEA 4 — Philadelphia beat Seattle 6-4, a combined 10 runs, over the 8-run total so the under busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take the better team here and lay the two in the first quarter with the Phoenix Mercury League.”
PHX 98-GS 91 — The Mercury trailed the Valkyries 28-31 after the first quarter, failing to cover the -2 first-quarter spread (ESPN box score). (Q1: PHX 28, GS 31)
“So let's go with Jose Ramirez here. Over one and a half bases should be an easy win.”
ARI 6-CLE 5 — Jose Ramirez homered (4 total bases) as Cleveland lost to Arizona 6-5; over the 1.5 total-base line (ESPN box score). (Jose Ramirez: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 4 TB)
“We're going to go over five and a half wins for the Houston Cougars. Get on this line right now. It's my hidden gem.”
10-3 — Houston finished the 2025 college football season 10-3, including a Texas Bowl win over LSU, well over the 5.5 season win total (ESPN team schedule).
“I'm going to go with Corey Seager over one and a half bases as my hidden gem.”
KC 4-TEX 3 — Corey Seager went 3-for-4 with a double (4 total bases) as Texas lost to Kansas City 4-3; over the 1.5 total-base line (ESPN box score). (Corey Seager: 3-for-4, 1 2B, 4 TB)
“I'm going to lay the one and a half points in the first half and take Cincinnati over the Washington Commanders as my blowout special.”
CIN 31-WAS 17 — Cincinnati led Washington 28-14 at halftime of their preseason game (final 31-17), covering the -1.5 first-half spread (ESPN box score). (1H: CIN 28, WAS 14)
“I think Charlie Morton goes over the five and a half strikeouts. that's going to be my hidden gem”
DET 7-MIN 0 — Charlie Morton struck out 5 batters (6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB) as Detroit beat Minnesota 7-0, falling short of the 5.5 strikeout over line (ESPN box score). (Charlie Morton: 6.0 IP, 5 K)
“Just think he's a little more skilled. And he's just so unorthodox, switching back and forth to a southpaw sometimes and hard to hit. And Cannoneer slowed down. And maybe Cannoneer, this is the punch where he gets laid out here. So not sure if it's going to be exciting. Might be boring. But I think MVP Michael Venom Page here minus the 195 is going to be my blowout special over Jared Killer Gorilla Cannoneer.”
Page def. Cannonier (unanimous decision, 29-28 x3) — Michael "Venom" Page defeated Jared Cannonier by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) over 3 rounds at UFC 319 (Wikipedia UFC 319 results).
“Packers are a team, and I like the first three or four guys for Indianapolis. So we might be sitting at like 26, 27 points at halftime. That'll be enough probably to get us over. So instead of picking the game, which like I said, I lean Green Bay plus the six. I think it's a little elevated. I think the best way to attack this game is we're going to go over 40 total points. It's going to be a level three lock. We're going all the way up on Friday.”
GB 23-IND 19 — Green Bay beat Indianapolis 23-19 in preseason play, a combined 42 points, over the 40-point total (ESPN box score).
“And I'm going to look at Kai Asakura, who is Moneyline minus 300 against Tim Elliott.”
Elliott def. Asakura (submission, R2 4:39) — Tim Elliott submitted Kai Asakura via second-round guillotine choke at 4:39 at UFC 319, so Asakura's moneyline busts (Wikipedia UFC 319 results).
“So let's take Eduardo Rodriguez of the Diamondbacks under four and a half strikeouts against the Rockies, of course, field for our hidden gem.”
ARI 8-COL 2 — Eduardo Rodriguez struck out 6 batters (7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB) as Arizona beat Colorado 8-2, going over the 4.5 strikeout line (ESPN box score). (Eduardo Rodriguez: 7.0 IP, 6 K)
“We're going to go with our wrong team favored, Atlanta Falcons. I think they're going to win the game outright over the Tennessee Titans on Friday night.”
TEN 23-ATL 20 — The Tennessee Titans beat the Atlanta Falcons 23-20 in preseason play, so Atlanta's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with James Wood, the 6'7 left fielder. for the Washington Nationals over one and a half bases plus 115.”
WSH 8-KC 7 — James Wood went 1-for-5 with 1 total base (a single) in Washington's 8-7 win over Kansas City; under the 1.5 total-base line (ESPN box score). (James Wood: 1-for-5, 1 TB)
“So we're going to go with the Baltimore Orioles in the first five innings tonight at home against the Mariners. And here are a couple of reasons why.”
BAL 4-SEA 3 — Orioles and Mariners were scoreless through 5 innings (0-0); the Orioles F5 moneyline pushes on a tie (ESPN box score line score). (F5: BAL 0, SEA 0)
“So we're going to go with bet a little, win a whole lot on Brian Battle, Nurtsin, Ruzyboff to go over two and a half rounds plus 115.”
no contest (bout cancelled) — Bryan Battle missed weight (190 lbs, 4 over the middleweight limit) for his UFC 319 bout with Nursulton Ruziboev; the fight was cancelled and Battle was released from the UFC, voiding the bet (Wikipedia UFC 319 results).
“So I think Denver, with that home field advantage, over nine and a half wins, we're going to go with a level two lock.”
14-3 — The Denver Broncos finished the 2025 NFL regular season 14-3, well over the 9.5 season win total (ESPN team schedule).
“Randy Orozarena over one and a half bases tonight in their game. This is going to be my blowout special.”
Randy Arozarena went 1-for-4 with a single (1 total base) in Seattle's 1-0 win over Baltimore; fails to clear over 1.5 total bases (ESPN box score). (1-for-4, 1 TB)
“But with all that being said, let's take the New York Liberty minus one in the first quarter for our Hidden Gem.”
Los Angeles outscored New York 30-28 in the first quarter (Liberty won the game 105-97); Liberty -1 first-quarter spread fails to cover (ESPN box score). (NY 28 - LA 30 (Q1))
“So I'm going to take the Houston Astros here. Money line, minus 120. I think the line's going to go up, get on it now. It's going to be another blowout special.”
HOU 1-BOS 14 — Boston beat Houston 14-1; Astros moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go under. I'm not a buyer. I'm a seller on the Georgia Bulldogs. That's going to be my level two lock. Take the under nine and a half wins on the Georgia Bulldogs.”
Georgia went 11-1 in the regular season (12 games, only loss to Alabama), well over the under-9.5 season win total (ESPN team schedule). (11-1 regular season)
“And like I said, we don't like guys that walk. They're not walking. So they're taking their their hits up there. Just, you know, they've been just falling a little short getting singles. But we like Brent Rooker tonight over the one and a half bases. So I feel confident about that one.”
Brent Rooker went 1-for-4 with a single (1 total base) in Oakland's 7-4 loss to Tampa Bay; fails to clear over 1.5 total bases (ESPN box score). (1-for-4, 1 TB)
“I'm going to go with the first five under four and a half runs. Now, San Francisco coming off a bad last few games against Washington. They won the opener Friday, then lost the last two. They were shut out yesterday by the Nats. But here's a number for, I have a couple numbers for you. Number one, the Giants have lost 10 of their past 11 home games. So they've been pretty dreadful at home. But in that span, in eight of those home games, Lee, they have scored one run or less in the first five innings. That the offense has just dried up and they've been awful. They face Hugh Darvish, who we talked about on the show a few weeks ago. He doesn't have what he used to have. But still. Now, also for the Giants, one run or less in the first five with Logan Webb starting tonight. One run or less in five is past seven home starts. So they don't score runs for Logan Webb. Now, last time Webb faced the Padres at home, they were 0-0 going to extra innings. And San Diego eventually won in extra innings. Now, for the Padres, they're coming off this series win over the Red Sox. Two runs or less in the first five in 11 of the past 12 road openers. So we're going to go with under four and a half runs. I think runs will be at a premium with these teams. They play pretty close to the vest, especially in San Francisco. So guess what, Lee? That's tonight's hidden gem.”
Giants and Padres were scoreless through 5 innings (0-0 F5) before San Diego won 4-1; F5 under 4.5 hits easily (ESPN box score). (F5: SF 0, SD 0)
“I'm going to go with over nine and a half wins from the Roll Tide blowout special of the day.”
Alabama went 10-2 in the regular season (12 games), clearing the over-9.5 season win total (ESPN team schedule). (10-2 regular season)
“But I think Kyle Tucker here for the Chicago Cubs will be able to do that. So minus 110. Don't have to lay much juice here. He has only faced Michael McGreeby, and we've been going against these St. Louis pitchers of late once, and he went two for three in that game, actually watched that game, and took some notes and thought he got some really good contact on the ball, hit the ball hard. And he has absolutely killed right-handed pitching this year with 30 extra base hits. So Kyle Tucker, one of those guys that gets a lot of doubles, a lot of home runs, And I think he's going to come through again for us tonight. Let's go with Chicago Cubs. Kyle Tucker here is going to be my blowout special to start the game.”
Kyle Tucker went 1-for-3 with a single (1 total base) as the Cardinals shut out the Cubs 5-0; fails to clear over 1.5 total bases (ESPN box score). (1-for-3, 1 TB)
“We're going to go with the Mystics to get off to a good start here. We'll take them plus the three against the Lynx in the first quarter.”
Washington outscored Minnesota 22-15 in the first quarter (Lynx won the game 80-76); Mystics +3 first-quarter spread covers easily (ESPN box score). (WSH 22 - MIN 15 (Q1))
“You're saying six and a half points for a team this bad. Well, don't fall for the trap. Don't take Washington tonight. Take New England. I think they're going to win this game by double digits. we're going to end the week with a level two lock new england patriots at home they get the job done over the washington commanders”
NE 48-WSH 18 — New England beat Washington 48-18 in NFL preseason; Patriots -6.5 covers by 30 (ESPN box score).
“So you got a batter here in Augustine Ramirez who drives the ball just like Mookie Betts. He only went, had one hit yesterday, but it was a double. He drives it, doubles, home runs time and time again versus another bad Atlanta Braves pitcher here. We're going to go with a hidden gem. Marlins, Augustin Ramirez, over one and a half bases.”
Agustin Ramirez went 1-for-5 with a single (1 total base) as the Marlins fell to Atlanta 8-6; fails to clear over 1.5 total bases (ESPN box score). (1-for-5, 1 TB)
“So we're going to go with a bit a little. Win a whole lot here on Andre Touchy Feely plus 200 against C-Rod, Christian Rodriguez, UFC fight night on Saturday night.”
Andre Fili defeated Christian Rodriguez by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27) at UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez on August 9, 2025; Fili moneyline hits (Wikipedia event results).
“So with something to prove here, I think Pete Carroll and also the fact that he's a preseason coach is a team you want to back here. So you've got to lay four and a half points on the road. You're thinking, wow, home team plus a field goal preseason. Don't fall for the trap. We're going to go with a level three lock on a Thursday all the way up. Las Vegas Raiders and Pete Carroll, they get the job done. They're going to win the game by a touchdown or more in Seattle to start preseason.”
LV 23-SEA 23 — Seattle and Las Vegas tied 23-23 in NFL preseason; Raiders -4.5 needed a win by 5+ and fails (ESPN box score).
“only five games at night in major league baseball this evening so i figured i'd go with the the big boy tonight the a's and the nationals in dc you know the game is going to change the entire pennant race and i'm going to go with the uh the first five under a four and a half uh in this one Now, the A's scored five in the first inning last night. They rolled the Nationals. And a couple notes here. First off with Washington, they're facing Jeffrey Springs. For the Nats, their offense has been bad. Two runs or less in the first five innings in seven straight games. Two runs or less in seven of the past eight against left-handed pitchers in the first five innings. Now, for Jeffrey Springs, five straight overs in the first five innings. But also, he's been helped out with great run support. four runs or more scored by the A's in four of those starts. So I don't think that's going to keep up tonight. And after last night's explosion in the first inning, we're going to go with the A's Nationals' first five under. You can get it around plus 100.”
Athletics and Nationals were scoreless through 5 innings (0-0 F5) before Washington won 2-1 in 9; F5 under 4.5 hits easily (ESPN box score). (F5: OAK 0, WSH 0)
“This line started off at Indianapolis barely the favorite. Now they're up to a six-point favorite here. I think you jump and take the points here, take the six points in the team that has a history of winning a lot of games and covering even more in preseason. Baltimore Ravens plus six wrong team favorite on Thursday night against Indianapolis.”
BAL 24-IND 16 — Baltimore beat Indianapolis 24-16 in NFL preseason Week 2; Ravens +6 covers easily as outright winners (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with the under, believe it or not, the under eight and a half wins for LSU this year. Everyone's got them in the college football playoff. I think this SEC, it's going to come down to the final couple weeks to see who makes it. And there's going to be five, six, maybe seven teams still alive at that point. Under eight and a half wins for the LSU Tigers here. I'm going to hold that tiger by the tail under for a level two lock.”
LSU finished 7-6 overall (including a Texas Bowl loss to Houston), under the 8.5-win line (Wikipedia season schedule). (7-6)
“We're going to go with Mookie Betts over one and a half bases, minus 105.”
Mookie Betts went 3-for-4 with a double (4 total bases) as the Dodgers beat the Cardinals 12-6; clears over 1.5 total bases (ESPN box score). (3-for-4, 1 2B, 4 TB)
“And we're going to take Seattle in the first quarter minus a half tonight.”
Minnesota led Seattle 20-19 after the first quarter; Storm -0.5 first-quarter spread fails to cover (ESPN box score). (MIN 20 - SEA 19 (Q1))
“Total is 7.5. I love, not don't like, I love this play. We're going to go all the way up on Tuesday. Level 3 lock. Illinois fighting Illini. Over 7.5 wins. Easy peasy.”
Illinois finished 9-4 overall (8-4 regular season plus a Music City Bowl win over Tennessee), clearing the over-7.5 season win total (Wikipedia season schedule). (9-4)
“I like Manny Machado. I think he's going to go on a tear, and this is the perfect pitcher who's going to try to be a little too cute and knows he's going to have to pitch a really good game to keep his team in it. So Manny Machado over the one-and-a-half bases tonight against Arizona.”
Manny Machado doubled (2 total bases) in San Diego's 6-2 loss to Arizona, clearing the over-1.5 total bases line. (1-for-4, 1 2B, 2 TB)
“So, with all that being said, let's take Tampa Bay plus 110 against L.A.”
LAA 5, TB 1 — The Angels beat Tampa Bay 5-1; Rays moneyline busts.
“I'm going to play Seattle here to finish last in the NFC West. Plus 180, bet a little, win a whole lot.”
Seattle won the NFC West outright at 14-3 (a franchise best), finishing first rather than last; Seahawks-to-finish-last bet busts. (14-3, division winner)
“So you got a Brazilian fighter here in Sousa taking on a Venezuelan fighter, Rodriguez. It's so hidden. It's the first fight of the night. Starts at 6 o'clock Eastern. We're going to go with Betalito win a lot. We win this fight. We're going to be in a nice spot for this card. We're going to go with Ketlin Sousa plus 185. Betalito win a lot. You bet $100. bucks, you win $185. Go for it.”
Piera Rodriguez defeated Ketlen Souza by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) at UFC on ESPN: Taira vs. Park on August 2, 2025; Souza moneyline busts.
“We're going to go with a blowout special. Bobby Witt Jr. tonight of the Kansas City Royals over one and a half bases. Let's see if he gets it done early and often.”
Bobby Witt Jr. homered (4 total bases) in the Royals' 9-3 win over Toronto, clearing the over-1.5 total bases line. (1-for-3, 1 HR, 4 TB)
“With all that being said, we're going to take the Giants' first five against the Mets. And they're at about plus 105 tonight. So plus money on the Giants.”
The Giants led the Mets 2-0 through five innings en route to a 4-3, 10-inning win, covering the F5 moneyline. (F5: SF 2, NYM 0)
“The over under is eight wins. Here's what Vegas is telling you. They won the conference. All they had to do was win one of the last two games, and they blew their last two games. They're now a 20-1 underdog to win the Big 12. I think they're going to come back to earth here. Total wins here is eight wins. We're going to end the week with a level two lock. BYU under eight wins. You've got to win nine wins. That's going to be really tough for this team here.”
BYU went 11-1 in the 2025 regular season (12-2 including the Pop-Tarts Bowl), well over the under-8 wins line. (11-1 regular season / 12-2 final)
“I'm going with L.E. De La Cruz over one and a half bases.”
Elly De La Cruz went 3-for-6 with a home run (7 total bases) as Atlanta beat Cincinnati 12-11 in 10 innings, clearing the over-1.5 total bases line. (3-for-6, 1 HR, 7 TB)
“we're going to go with Kumar Rocker of the Rangers under on his strikeouts, actually plus money around plus 110 under four and a half strikeouts.”
SEA 6, TEX 0 — Kumar Rocker struck out 3 over 4.2 IP in a 6-0 loss to Seattle, staying under the 4.5-strikeout line. (Kumar Rocker: 4.2 IP, 3 K)
“205 minus 210 money line matuz rizbecky over chris the problem duncan it's going to be my blowout special on saturday night the ufc co-main event”
Chris Duncan beat Mateusz Rebecki by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) at UFC on ESPN: Taira vs. Park on August 2, 2025; Rebecki moneyline busts.
“i'm going the under 33 and a half total points level one lock to start the football season”
LAC 34, DET 7 — LA Chargers beat Detroit 34-7 in the Hall of Fame Game; combined 41 points busts the under-33.5 total.
“Julio Rodriguez of the Seattle Mariners over one and a half bases, minus 120 low out special.”
Julio Rodriguez homered (4 total bases) in Seattle's 5-4 loss to Oakland, clearing the over-1.5 total bases line. (1-for-4, 1 HR, 4 TB)
“Let's go with the under nine runs, minus 110, and the Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays game.”
NYY 5, TB 4 — The Yankees beat Tampa Bay 5-4 in 11 innings; combined 9 runs exactly hits the under-9 line for a push.
“Yeah, they're going to be improved, but they're still, they're not even close to Buffalo. They're probably two years away from contending for a playoff spot. And then you got the Jets. Jets are the Jets. They have no quarterback. I mean, maybe they're slightly better, but they're not going to win half their game. So you have them right now at just minus 300 to win the division. I think it's by the time the season starts, it's going to be minus 500, minus 600. I think they could win the division with Mitchell Trebinsky playing quarterback for half the season, or even third stringer Mike White. So why do I like him more than in other years? Well, they upgraded the receiver position, added Joshua Palmer. They already had Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir. They also have Curtis Samuel. I think they have maybe top three tight end duo and Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Kincaid was banged up last year. I expect if you play fantasy, he's a guy you might want to look at. He was underused last year. And then their running back, James Cook, I mean, everyone thought that he was like an afterthought, just kind of a fill in the guy that they just play for a while till they find their guy. He's as good or better than Dalvin Cook. He does it all running and catching the ball out of the backfield. Greg Brousseau on defense, start to come into his own. And who do they add? Joey Bosa. I mean, if he stays healthy, look out. Drip Darius White, their starting cornerback, he doesn't even start anymore. They added Maxwell Harrison. This is a very much upgraded team here. So I don't know if two years from now they're going to be at this level. Even Matt Miano has missed a lot of the last two years, you know, with a torn pec muscle. I think this team is right there, and I think they're ready to strike. So I'm going to take them at minus 300 to win the division. and the over-under on games one is 11 and a half. This is a 13-win team. So I'm going to go with a double lock. How about this? We're going to go with over 11 and a half wins, and they'll get that, like I said, even if Mitchell Trubisky had to play half the games here. That's going to be a level one lock here and a level two lock. I'm going to take Buffalo to win the division here, minus 300. Double lock on a Wednesday.”
Buffalo went 12-5 in the 2025 regular season, clearing the over-11.5 wins line. (12-5)
“Yeah, they're going to be improved, but they're still, they're not even close to Buffalo. They're probably two years away from contending for a playoff spot. And then you got the Jets. Jets are the Jets. They have no quarterback. I mean, maybe they're slightly better, but they're not going to win half their game. So you have them right now at just minus 300 to win the division. I think it's by the time the season starts, it's going to be minus 500, minus 600. I think they could win the division with Mitchell Trebinsky playing quarterback for half the season, or even third stringer Mike White. So why do I like him more than in other years? Well, they upgraded the receiver position, added Joshua Palmer. They already had Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir. They also have Curtis Samuel. I think they have maybe top three tight end duo and Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Kincaid was banged up last year. I expect if you play fantasy, he's a guy you might want to look at. He was underused last year. And then their running back, James Cook, I mean, everyone thought that he was like an afterthought, just kind of a fill in the guy that they just play for a while till they find their guy. He's as good or better than Dalvin Cook. He does it all running and catching the ball out of the backfield. Greg Brousseau on defense, start to come into his own. And who do they add? Joey Bosa. I mean, if he stays healthy, look out. Drip Darius White, their starting cornerback, he doesn't even start anymore. They added Maxwell Harrison. This is a very much upgraded team here. So I don't know if two years from now they're going to be at this level. Even Matt Miano has missed a lot of the last two years, you know, with a torn pec muscle. I think this team is right there, and I think they're ready to strike. So I'm going to take them at minus 300 to win the division. and the over-under on games one is 11 and a half. This is a 13-win team. So I'm going to go with a double lock. How about this? We're going to go with over 11 and a half wins, and they'll get that, like I said, even if Mitchell Trubisky had to play half the games here. That's going to be a level one lock here and a level two lock. I'm going to take Buffalo to win the division here, minus 300. Double lock on a Wednesday.”
Buffalo finished 12-5 but lost the AFC East to New England, who went 14-3 and won the division; Bills' division-winner bet busts. (BUF 12-5, NE 14-3 (division winner))
“Kansas City Royals, money line, minus 125.”
KC 9, ATL 6 — Kansas City Royals beat Atlanta 9-6, covering the moneyline.
“Teoscar Hernandez over one and a half bases, minus 115.”
Teoscar Hernandez went 1-for-4 with a double (2 total bases) in the Dodgers' 5-4 win over Cincinnati, clearing the over-1.5 total bases line. (1-for-4, 1 2B, 2 TB)
“I like Washington here. here is my hidden gem seven and a half is the total they win eight nine games”
Washington went 8-4 in the 2025 regular season (9-4 overall after an LA Bowl win), clearing the over-7.5 wins line. (8-4 regular season / 9-4 final)
“Line's only minus 115. It's not like it's minus 140, minus 150 for the one and a half bases. I think the line is priced a little off here. So we're going to go with a hidden gem. Gunnar Henderson over one and a half bases in their game tonight.”
Gunnar Henderson went 0-for-4 with a walk (0 total bases) in the Orioles' 11-4 win over Toronto; under 1.5 total bases, bust. (0-for-4, 0 TB)
“I'm going to take Kansas state here over nine and a half wins.”
Kansas State finished the 2025 regular season 6-6 (5-4 Big 12), well under the over-9.5 wins line. (6-6)
“better play though is to lay the one and a half runs here minus 120 and backslate to Coney I think he'll get into the sixth maybe seventh inning here don't overthink this one blowout special Cleveland Guardians big time here over Colorado by two or more runs”
COL 8, CLE 6 — Colorado rallied for four runs in the 9th to beat Cleveland 8-6; the Guardians lost outright, busting the -1.5 spread.
“Junior Caminero here, minus 130, over one and a half bases, low out special.”
CIN 7, TB 2 — Junior Caminero went 1-for-4 with no extra bases (1 total base) as the Reds beat the Rays 7-2; the over 1.5 total bases busts (ESPN box score). (Caminero 1-for-4, 1 TB)
“let's go with a level one lock on a Friday Bryce Thug Nasty Mitchell moves to 18-3 with a win here over Saeed Nurmagomedov.”
Bryce Mitchell defeated Said Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision at UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder in Abu Dhabi, improving to 18-3 (Wikipedia fight record).
“Chicago Bears over eight and a half wins for the 2025-2026 season.”
Chicago Bears finished 11-6 and won the NFC North, clearing the over 8.5-win total (Wikipedia season summary). (11-6, won NFC North)
“So we're going to go under four and a half on you, Darvish. Total strikeouts here.”
STL 9, SD 7 — Yu Darvish allowed 8 earned runs over 3.1 innings with 3 strikeouts as the Cardinals beat the Padres 9-7; the under 4.5 strikeouts cashes (ESPN box score). (Darvish 3.1 IP, 3 K)
“I'm going to take the Las Vegas Aces minus one and a half at Indiana this evening.”
Aces and Fever were tied 18-18 after the first quarter; Las Vegas did not cover -1.5 (ESPN box score). (1Q: LV 18, IND 18)
“Blowout special, Detroit Tigers minus the 125 against the very hot, but soon to cool off Toronto Blue Jays.”
TOR 11, DET 4 — Blue Jays beat Tigers 11-4; the Detroit moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“under eight and a half wins for the Memphis Tigers who tried to buy their way into the Big 12. We're going to go with a level two line.”
Memphis finished 8-5 overall (8-4 regular season, then lost the Gasparilla Bowl 31-7 to NC State), under the 8.5-win total either way (Wikipedia season summary). (8-5 final (8-4 regular season))
“the price is short here at Moneyline minus 125. Let's go with a blowout special. Cleveland Guardians here over the Baltimore Orioles.”
CLE 3, BAL 2 — Guardians beat Orioles 3-2; the Cleveland moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“and North Carolina State the Wolfpack we're gonna look at them today I can't believe this Lee Dave Doran's been there 13 years now he's entering his 13th season as the head coach of the Wolfpack like that I would have felt like somewhere down the line they would have made a change but I can't believe he's been there that long I thought it was like eight or eight nine maybe 10 years so I was shocked too but time flies when you're mediocre you know they really have not done anything great but how about this in the last 10 years they've had one losing season one losing season where they were horrific against the spread it was 2019 they went four and eight overall two nine and one against the spread now people are off them because last year they lost their bowl game and they lost that game to east carolina so people are you know Now, once you lose a bowl game to a lower level team, people, you just fall off their radar. Just the way the public is. There's a lot of teams that lost their bowl game. They're going to be much better. And they're one of those teams. After having a losing record, Dave Dorn, the last time was 2019, 4-8, 2-9-1 against the spread. What did he do the next year? 8-4 straight up and 8-4 against the spread. The win total is 6-1. half. He has a returning starting quarterback, CJ Bailey. A lot of people, if you're from South Florida, know who he is. And I, in fact, saw him as a ninth grader. He started all four years in high school. Well, people will say, you know, he has an unorthodox delivery and not a lot of people are on him, but he was a starter as a freshman for NC State. Think he's only going to get better. Forget about his delivery. The guy gets the ball there. He is a player. How many players in high school start for a top 10 high school team four straight years. Their offensive line returned four starters. They have two transfer starters. They returned over 150 starts. Guys that started over 150 games on the offensive line. You're not going to see that too often. Their defensive line and linebackers are solid, and they also get their punter and kicker returning, And they were the 53rd best special teams. I think they'll improve on that. So people are talking about Casey Concepcion, their top receiver leaving, but he was hurt on and off the whole year. They have a lot of receiver depth. And I just think that Dave Dorn, after a bad year, is a great play on coach. So you don't want to play him when the expectations are high. He will let you down. But we're going to go here with over six and a half wins, another hidden gem.”
NC State finished 8-5 overall (7-5 regular season plus a Gasparilla Bowl win over Memphis, 31-7), clearing the over 6.5-win total (Wikipedia season summary). (8-5 final (7-5 regular season))
“Chris Bassett on Wednesday, over five and a half strikeouts against the dreaded, the hated New York Yankees.”
TOR 8, NYY 4 — Chris Bassitt struck out 8 over 7.1 innings as Toronto beat New York 8-4; clears the over 5.5 strikeouts (ESPN box score). (Bassitt 7.1 IP, 8 K)
“I'm going to say that a little went a lot on the Minnesota Twins tonight, plus one sixty five versus the L.A. Dodgers.”
LAD 5, MIN 2 — Dodgers beat Twins 5-2; the Minnesota moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Looked at Hayden Birdsong and he faced the Braves twice and went five innings in one of the games and got knocked out when he went a little over four innings in the other game. In 65 innings this year, usually a decent pitcher has like 15, at most 20 walks, 33 walks. Walks, especially the first batter in an inning will get you in trouble. And that's been his problem here. That's been his bugaboo. He is a guy that they're not afraid to pull. Remember, there's a team coming out of the all-star break. Bullpen should be relatively fresh. So if he goes four or five innings, starts getting beat up. I don't see him making it to the sixth inning. So he does strike out on average one batter per inning. But you get to the second half, a lot of these pitchers that are suspect, they start having problems. So he also has not pitched since July 6th. So I think he's walking into a really tough spot here. I think Atlanta is going to beat him up. I don't think he's going to get close to five strikeouts. So let's go under four and a half strikeouts here, minus 140.”
ATL 9, SF 5 — Hayden Birdsong was pulled without recording an out, allowing 5 earned runs and 0 strikeouts as Atlanta beat San Francisco 9-5; the under 4.5 strikeouts cashes (ESPN box score). (Birdsong 0.0 IP, 0 K)
“So this is like seasons of old when Clemson was winning titles. They have a good quarterback, really good receivers. Again, they've been a little weak there for the last couple of years, last four or five years, and a really strong defensive line. He even hit the transfer portal, which is shocking. He at first said, not going to do transfers. Well, he's doing it for a few key positions and also depth here. Look at the schedule. I know they open up against LSU and Garrett Nussmeier. That's going to be probably one-two quarterback. Could decide who ends up going first in the draft here. But Kay Klubin might be a little bit better. Maybe Garrett Nussmeyer a little bit overhyped. He had a few games where he didn't look great. Do have some other games against at Georgia Tech, but it's not like they're going to travel far for that. SMU I think is down this year Florida State is not there yet They don have to play Miami and then they finish up at South Carolina who I think is overrated too The total is at nine and a half This is a 10 or 11 win team, in my opinion here. So we're going to go over, over nine and a half wins here. It's going to be a level one lock to start the week.”
Clemson finished 7-6 overall (7-5 regular season plus a Pinstripe Bowl loss to Penn State), short of the over 9.5-win total (Wikipedia season summary). (7-6 final (7-5 regular season))
“we're going to take catcher ryan jeffers for the minnesota twins over one and a half bases blowout special”
COL 6, MIN 4 — Ryan Jeffers went 4-for-5 with a double (5 total bases) as the Rockies beat the Twins 6-4; clears the over 1.5 total bases (ESPN box score). (Jeffers 4-for-5, 1 2B, 5 TB)
“Toronto Blue Jays, Moneyline, minus 135, blowout special, number two on a Friday.”
TOR 4, SF 0 — Toronto Blue Jays beat San Francisco 4-0; the moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I'm going under seven and a half wins for the overrated South Carolina Gamecocks and Lenora Sellers.”
South Carolina finished the 2025 season 4-8 (1-7 SEC), well under the 7.5-win total (Wikipedia season summary). (4-8 (1-7 SEC))
“So I think that Spann is going to dominate Bredski here. Bredski is, like I said, 33, but he looks 38, 40 years old. His chin isn't great. Just can't fight the better fighters and inflict enough damage to get the, whether it's a decision or to get a stoppage. So I think Superman's fan here is going to dominate him. I'm going to lay the money line. Minus 210 with Superman. I think he's going to be better, much better version than the movie that you're seeing that they're claiming is a blockbuster. Superman, Moneyline, minus 210, blowout special.”
Ryan Spann submitted Lukasz Brzeski via guillotine choke in round 1 at UFC 318 (Wikipedia fight-results page).
“I'm gonna go with the over 93 and a half wins here for Philadelphia”
Philadelphia Phillies finished 96-66 and won the NL East, over 93.5 wins (ESPN final standings). (96-66)
“I'm going to go under the eight and a half wins here. For the Ole Miss Rebels, level one block.”
Ole Miss went 11-1 in the 2025 regular season (13-2 including a CFP semifinal run), well over the under-8.5 line (ESPN final schedule/record). (11-1 regular season)
“we going to go the LA Angels under 76 and a half wins for the season that going to be a level one lock”
LA Angels finished the 2025 season 72-90, under the adjusted 76.5-win line (ESPN final standings). (72-90)
“So the lock for me as far as division winner, and I'm going to go with the Milwaukee Brewers lead at plus 240.”
Milwaukee Brewers clinched the NL Central, finishing 97-65 (ESPN final standings). (97-65, NL Central champs)
“So let's go with a blowout special here. Roman Kapilov here, minus 230, Moneyline over Paula, the Eraser Costa, on Saturday night in UFC 318.”
Paulo Costa defeated Roman Kopylov by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) in the co-main event of UFC 318 (Wikipedia fight-results page).
“New Orleans Saints under six and a half wins for the NFL season.”
New Orleans Saints finished the 2025 season 6-11, under 6.5 wins (ESPN final standings). (6-11)
“I'm going to go over six and a half wins for the Virginia Tech Hokies here. It's going to be my hidden gem.”
Virginia Tech Hokies finished the 2025 season 3-9, under 6.5 wins (ESPN final schedule/record). (3-9)
“They're only plus 100.”
Carolina Panthers won the NFC South at 8-9 on a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Buccaneers and Falcons (also 8-9); Tampa Bay finished 2nd and missed the division (ESPN final standings).
“but I still think Tampa Bay is the prohibitive favorite. They're only plus 100. So I'm going to take a level one lock on them to win the division, plus 100 and over nine and a half. I'm going to make that a level two lock.”
Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished the 2025 regular season 8-9, under 9.5 wins (ESPN final standings). (8-9)
“I'm going to go with a level three lock all the way up with Tampa Bay plus 1,500.”
Buccaneers missed the playoffs (Panthers won the NFC South tiebreaker at 8-9); the Seattle Seahawks won the NFC Championship 31-27 over the Rams to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LX, not Tampa Bay.
“This is going to be Notre Dame over 10 and a half wins by Hidden Gem.”
Notre Dame finished the 2025 regular season 10-2, under 10.5 wins (ESPN final standings). (10-2)
“so I'm going to go with a wrong fighter favorite Jake the Celtic kid Matthews plus the 105”
Jake Matthews submitted Chidi Njokuani in round 1 (1:09) at UFC Fight Night Nashville (UFC.com official results).
“Bobby Witt, Jr., over one and a half total bases, minus 125.”
Mets 8, Royals 3 — Bobby Witt Jr. went 2-for-5 with a double and a home run (6 total bases) as the Mets beat the Royals 8-3, over 1.5 total bases (ESPN box score). (2-5, 2B, HR, 6 TB)
“we're going to go with a blowout special Matt Olsen of the Atlanta Braves tonight over one and a half total bases”
Athletics 5, Braves 4 (11 innings) — Matt Olson went 0-for-4 with a walk (0 total bases) as the Athletics beat the Braves 5-4 in 11 innings; under 1.5 total bases (ESPN box score). (0-4, BB, 0 TB)
“You don't have to lay 1,200, just lay 12 minus 120 to win. So I'm going to take Fatima, the Archangel Klein, to not just win the fight, win inside the distance.”
Fatima Kline defeated Melissa Martinez by KO/TKO in round 3 (2:36) at UFC Fight Night Nashville, an inside-the-distance win (UFC.com official results).
“I'm going under, under on the Miami Dolphins here, under eight and a half wins.”
Miami Dolphins finished the 2025 NFL regular season 7-10, under 8.5 wins (ESPN final standings). (7-10)
“My second hidden gem after yours is Max Muncy of the Athletics. Total bases is one and a half plus 125.”
ATL 9, ATH 2 — Max Muncy went 1-for-4 with a single (1 total base) in Atlanta's 9-2 win over Oakland on July 9, 2025, under his 1.5 total-bases prop (ESPN box score). (Max Muncy: 1-4, 1 TB)
“So we're going to go with a wrong team favored, Washington Nationals. First five innings money line, minus 115.”
WSH 8, STL 2 — Washington led St. Louis 7-1 through 5 innings en route to an 8-2 win on July 9, 2025; Nationals first-5 moneyline cashes (ESPN box score). (F5: WSH 7, STL 1)
“Las Vegas Raiders over six and a half wins.”
Las Vegas finished the 2025 regular season 3-14, well under the 6.5 win total (ESPN standings). (3-14)
“Over one and a half bases. I'm going to go with Juan Soto over that total here.”
The Mets-Orioles game scheduled for July 9, 2025 was postponed by rain and made up as part of a July 10 doubleheader; no game was played on the pick's stated date, so Juan Soto's total-bases prop is void.
“So we're going to go with a blowout special. Cal Raleigh tonight, former FSU catcher, and Seattle Mariners backstop over one and a half total bases, minus 130.”
NYY 10, SEA 3 — Cal Raleigh hit a solo home run (4 total bases) in Seattle's 10-3 loss to New York on July 8, 2025, over his 1.5 total-bases prop (ESPN box score). (Cal Raleigh: 1-3, HR, 4 TB)
“So we're going to go with a wrong team favored. Tampa Bay Rays money line plus 115.”
DET 4, TB 2 — Detroit beat Tampa Bay 4-2 on July 8, 2025; Rays moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“New England Patriots over eight and a half wins, minus 110 either way.”
New England finished the 2025 regular season 14-3, well over the 8.5 win total (ESPN standings). (14-3)
“Over 4.5 Ks for Richard Fitz here. Minus 115. Blowout special number one.”
BOS 9, COL 3 — Richard Fitts struck out 6 in Boston's 9-3 win over Colorado on July 7, 2025, over his 4.5 K prop (ESPN box score). (Richard Fitts: 6 K)
“Let's go with a blowout special number two, the Houston Astros money line, minus 135 to keep it rolling.”
CLE 7, HOU 5 — Cleveland beat Houston 7-5 on July 7, 2025, snapping a 10-game losing streak; Astros moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“we're gonna go under five and a half wins here minus 140 for the new york g-men”
The Giants finished the 2025 regular season 4-13, under the 5.5 win total (ESPN standings). (4-13)
“Today, their old rival, the Nebraska Cornhuskers, but they're not Big 8 teams anymore, as Oklahoma in the SEC and Nebraska in the Big 10. So the Cornhuskers, Matt Rule, he has a tendency to make improvements over the years, entering his third season in Lincoln. So, Lee, the Nebraska Cornhuskers, what are your thoughts on them this season? Well, they were 7-6 last year, and they did not start off well. In fact, it went so poorly for the offense that they made a change in the last four games, brought in Dana Holgerson, former head coach. People know him. He was previously at the University of Houston. So the win total is set at 7.5 here, minus 120. this is a team there was a lot of dead wood that was around their quarterbacking was horrendous a couple years ago very little skill players uh talent as far as at the running back and wide receiver position offensive line was mediocre you know they were known for having some absolute bulldozers in the offensive line going back to the 60s 70s and 80s but uh even their strength room wasn't the same. They weren't getting that kind of big player that could get the push and the pass blocking was awful. Now, last year they brought in and they signed, I think he was the number one high school quarterback in the country, Dylan Rayola. His father had played at Nebraska. Kind of underperformed last year. 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. What has he done to improve himself he shed some weight thought he was probably 15 20 pounds too heavy uh looks like he's taking it seriously and when Dana Holgerson took over this was a different team the last four games they're running back Emmitt Johnson what did he do over those last four games well he averaged over five yards per carry and they started using him as a pass receiver he caught 23 passes over four game. So they expanded it, very limited playbook before, but they've opened it up. They added some wide receivers, the transfer portal, Dane Key from Kentucky, Nazia Hunter from Cal, and two transfer offensive linemen from, get this, these are some powerhouse offensive lines, Notre Dame and Alabama who will step in. So I expect this unit to be much, much better here. Nebraska also hired a defensive coordinator, John Butler. He's going to bring more pressure. Does he have the talent to be successful? That's the big question. Only USC and Penn State, and I'm looking at this schedule, look to pose to have an offense that can really dent most defenses here. So most of these offenses they're going to face are mid-level to lower level teams here. This is a team, believe it or not, that could go nine and three and still not be that great because of the schedule. It's so soft. Michigan State, I'm sorry, not Michigan State, Michigan, USC, Penn State, who I mentioned, and Iowa seem to be their toughest games. Let's say they go one and three in those games. I think they're going to win almost every other game. over seven and a half. The reason I started this show off with a lock is I am that excited about it. We're going to start out right out of the gate here with a level three lock all the way up.”
Nebraska finished the 2025 season 7-6 (7-5 regular season plus a Las Vegas Bowl loss to Utah, 44-22), under the 7.5 win total (ESPN schedule). (7-6)
“So we're going to go here with, how about this, a blowout special number one, Toronto's pitcher Chris Bassett, over five and a half strikeouts, minus 145.”
TOR 8, NYY 5 — Chris Bassitt struck out 9 in Toronto's 8-5 win over New York on July 3, 2025, over his 5.5 K prop (ESPN box score). (Chris Bassitt: 9 K)
“we're gonna go with a huge blowout here it's blowout special number two the San Francisco Giants money line minus 120 tonight over the Arizona Diamondbacks”
SF 7, ARI 2 — San Francisco beat Arizona 7-2 on July 3, 2025 behind a Robbie Ray complete game; Giants moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go over six and a half wins here for the Oklahoma Sooners for the 2025 season.”
Oklahoma finished the 2025 season 10-3 (10-2 regular season plus a CFP first-round loss to Alabama), over the 6.5 win total (ESPN schedule). (10-3)
“under five and a half strikeouts for Zach Gallin here in his outing.”
ARI 8, SF 2 — Zac Gallen struck out 10 in Arizona's 8-2 win over San Francisco on July 1, 2025, well over his 5.5 K prop (ESPN box score). (Zac Gallen: 10 K)
“First quarter, I like the under of 41.5 between the Lynx and the Fever.”
Fever and Lynx combined for 32 points in the 1st quarter (Fever 12, Lynx 20) of their July 1, 2025 Commissioner's Cup Championship game, under the 41.5 total (ESPN box score). (Q1: Fever 12, Lynx 20 (32 total))
“They don't play, you know, FSU, don't play Georgia Tech. So, I mean, they played Cal and Stanford this year. How lucky are they? So you've got to factor in schedule, coaching, and I think their players are going to be good enough here. We're going to go over seven and a half wins here, plus 135. I think that's the right side. It's going to be my level two luck. I do believe too, Lee, that I think that with this North Carolina team, that they will do it because Belichick is not going to want to lose.”
North Carolina finished the 2025 regular season 4-8, under the 7.5 win total (ESPN schedule). (4-8)
“we're gonna say this is my blowout special trade turner over one and a half bases minus 110 i think”
Trea Turner went 1-for-4 with a single (1 total base) as the Phillies beat the Padres 4-0; his total bases finished under the 1.5-base line (ESPN box score). (1-for-4, 1 TB)
“luck of the day, Pittsburgh Pirates get the job done and win their fourth straight over the St. Louis Cardinals minus 110.”
7-0 — The Pittsburgh Pirates beat the St. Louis Cardinals 7-0 behind Andrew Heaney's near no-hitter; the Pirates moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Florida Gators over six and a half wins on the season.”
The Florida Gators finished the 2025 regular season 4-8, well under the 6.5-win total (ESPN team schedule). (Florida 4-8)
“The last and final show The last game here we going to give out on lectern bets Of course it going to be a level three lock all the way up San Diego State, minus six over New Mexico.”
81-70 — San Diego State beat New Mexico 81-70, an 11-point win; San Diego State -6 covers (ESPN box score).
“Yep, I'm calling it. Detroit Mercy, the Titans, win their first game of the year and move to 1-26. It's now or never here for the Titans. Lay the five points.”
81-66 — Detroit Mercy beat IUPUI 81-66, a 15-point win; Detroit Mercy -5 covers (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the Tennessee Volunteers, lay the 8 points here, blowout special over the Arkansas Razorbacks.”
92-63 — Tennessee beat Arkansas 92-63, a 29-point win; Tennessee -8 covers easily (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go on a Wednesday all the way up. Level three lock here. Golden State played the two and a half for the L.A. Clippers.”
125-130 — LA Clippers beat Golden State 130-125; Golden State lost outright, so Golden State -2.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with another top-ten ranked team getting knocked off here. The Butler Bulldogs here plus the points over Marquette. Wrong team favorite. Boom, there it is right there. Marquette, Butler. Doesn't get much better than that when it comes to college hoops, man. Big-time rivalry matchup right there. That's something to get excited about on a Tuesday. Again, Marquette comes into this one minus four versus Butler.”
78-72 — Marquette beat Butler 78-72, a 6-point win for Marquette; Butler +4 needed to lose by fewer than 4, so the bet busts (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go to the blowout special. Baylor Bears over the 25th-ranked Oklahoma Sooners here on Tuesday night. There you go. Top 25 matchup right there. 12th-ranked Baylor, 25th-ranked Oklahoma going down in Baylor's new arena. They've got a beautiful new building, so that should be a lot of fun. The fans actually, and the students more importantly, have an opportunity to impact the game, something I know Coach Drew has been talking about for quite a while, but that's a big-time matchup right there. Baylor-Oklahoma Big 12 action. blowout special on this Tuesday. Again, FanDuel.com. Line on that one. The Baylor Bears minus six versus Oklahoma Sooners.”
79-62 — Baylor beat Oklahoma 79-62, a 17-point win; Baylor -6 covers (ESPN box score).
“We're going to lay the small spot here. On Tuesday, we're going to go with a level two lock. There we go. Level two lock. The Phoenix Suns versus Sacramento Kings. I like how you're rolling with that one. Phoenix to go on a run. Again, Phoenix minus five versus Sacramento.”
130-125 — Phoenix beat Sacramento 130-125, a 5-point win; Phoenix -5 lands exactly on the number for a push (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to bet a little one a lot. Detroit Lions, I think they get over the hump and hoist the trophy for the first time since 1957. Detroit Lions plus 14 to 1. Bet a little. Win a whole lot. Wow, there you go right there. Detroit Lions 14 to 1 to Hoisin Lombardi. Super Bowl 59.”
40-22 — The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX on Feb 9, 2025; the Detroit Lions did not win the Super Bowl, so this futures bet loses (ESPN).
“we're gonna go with a wrong team favorite another top ranked team gets knocked off Wake Forest plus the seven and a half at Cameron Indoor Arena”
77-69 — Duke beat Wake Forest 77-69 (Duke won by 8); Wake Forest +7.5 needed to lose by 7 or fewer, so the bet busts (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with another, a third, wrong team favorite on a Monday night. Milwaukee Bucks plus the one at home.”
112-95 — Milwaukee beat Denver 112-95, a 17-point win; Milwaukee +1 easily covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go under five and a half penalties here for the game for the Kansas City Chiefs. Level one lock.”
The Kansas City Chiefs were penalized 6 times for 55 yards in Super Bowl LVIII, over the under-5.5 line (ESPN team stats, gameId 401547378). (6 penalties, 55 yds)
“we going to go with the VCU Rams here plus the one points over the ranked Dayton Flyers here on Friday night Another upset and a level two lock. Boom, there it is right there. Level two lock, 18th-ranked Dayton going up against VCU, and you know what it is when it's an unranked team going up against a ranked team. more times than not this season, it has resulted in an L for that ranked team. So there you go. FanDuel.com line on that one. Dayton minus one and a half versus VCU.”
VCU 49, Dayton 47 — VCU beat Dayton 49-47 on Feb 9, 2024, winning outright, so VCU +1.5 covered (ESPN scoreboard).
“We're going to go with the Kansas City Chiefs plus the two points all the way up Level three lock for the Super Bowl”
Kansas City 25, San Francisco 22 — Kansas City beat San Francisco 25-22 in overtime in Super Bowl LVIII, a 3-point margin, so Chiefs +2 covered (ESPN box score, gameId 401547378).
“I'm going to say wrong team favored UAB. over FAU on Thursday night in college basketball action. Possibly another ranked team goes down. Man, be on the alert, be on the alert, be on high alert right there. UAB is lurking, going up against 20th ranked FAU. We know what it's been all college basketball season. There you go. I like that. Great way to start us off. The WTF, the wrong team. We're talking about FanDuel.com line on this one. FAU minus 5.5 versus UAB.”
UAB 76, Florida Atlantic 73 — UAB beat Florida Atlantic 76-73 in overtime on Feb 8, 2024, winning outright, so UAB +5.5 covered (ESPN scoreboard).
“we're going to lay the one point here. We're going to go with a blowout special. Milwaukee Bucks here over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday night.”
Minnesota 129, Milwaukee 105 — Minnesota beat Milwaukee 129-105 on Feb 8, 2024, so Milwaukee -1 did not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“we're going to go with our wrong team favorite, the Providence Flyers, here to upset the Creighton Blue Jays on Wednesday night. There it is right there. Defensive rebounds, man. If you could do that and do that really well, it's a great recipe to win some games, right? So they obviously showed that they can do that and hang with Creighton when they only shot, as you said, 30-something percent and still barely lost the game because defense and rebounding is what they do. So Creighton versus Providence. Rolling with Providence right there in the small upset. Again, the WTF, the wrong team favorite. Creighton minus two ver”
Providence 91, Creighton 87 — Providence beat Creighton 91-87 in overtime on Feb 7, 2024, winning outright, so Providence +2 covered (ESPN scoreboard).
“The Clippers minus six and a half versus the Pelicans. Break that one down for us, Lee. Yeah, the Pelicans are starting to straighten things out. They've won three in a row. But how about the LA Clippers? They've won four in a row, nine of ten. And those last ten games, they've covered eight of the last ten. They've been healthy. No major injuries this year. Even Kawhi Leonard's decided, hey, I'm going to play almost every single game. and they beat the Pelicans here easily as a one-point road favorite, 111-95. When I was watching the game here, this game took place just, like I said, a little less than a month ago. I just thought that they dominated every single phase of the basketball court. New Orleans, second in the league and opposing three-point percentage, 34.3. However, the Pelicans really struggle to defend the paint. They rank 24th in opposing two-point percentage, 56.1 percentage here. And I just think Clippers have too much firepower. Maybe they end up imploding here. It probably will happen in the playoffs. They'll find a way to blow it, but they are rolling right now. They're happy, and their offense just can't be stopped here. we're gonna go with a blowout special in the nba on wednesday night i'm gonna keep riding the la clippers here over the new orleans new orleans pelicans”
New Orleans 117, LA Clippers 106 — New Orleans beat the LA Clippers 117-106 on Feb 7, 2024, so Clippers -6.5 did not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“We're going to go with a level one lock, Debo Samuel, over 13.5 rushing yards in the Super Bowl.”
Deebo Samuel rushed 3 times for 8 yards in Super Bowl LVIII, under the 13.5-yard line (ESPN box score, gameId 401547378). (3 car, 8 yds)
“We are going to go against either kicker hitting the upright or crossbar on a missed field goal or extra point. Not on a made field goal. Right. extra point on a missed field goal extra point here minus 500”
ESPN's full play-by-play of Super Bowl LVIII shows zero missed field goals (all 7 attempts were good) and only one blocked extra point (Moody, 4th Q) — no upright/crossbar contact on any miss, so 'neither kicker hits upright/crossbar on a missed FG or XP' won (ESPN play-by-play, gameId 401547378).
“we're going to start off with blowout special number one, Boston Bruins. Minus one and a half goals, plus 120 over the Calgary Flames.”
Calgary 4, Boston 1 — Calgary beat Boston 4-1 on Feb 6, 2024, so Boston's -1.5 puck line did not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm going to lay the three-and-a-half here. Great matchup. Another incredibly juiced crowd. just like last night manhattan kansas it's going to be tonight in columbia south carolina a lot special number two south carolina game cocks here over the old miss rebels boom there it is”
South Carolina 68, Ole Miss 65 — South Carolina beat Ole Miss 68-65 on Feb 6, 2024, only a 3-point margin, short of South Carolina's -3.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“we're going to start off with a little two rock brendan iuke here first catch over 13 and a half yards”
Brandon Aiyuk's first catch of Super Bowl LVIII was an 18-yard reception from Brock Purdy in the 2nd quarter (10:16 remaining), over the 13.5-yard line (ESPN play-by-play, gameId 401547378). (First catch: 18 yds)
“I'm going to go under 261.5 passing yards for Brock Purdy. We're going to go all the way up two days in a row. Level three lock.”
Brock Purdy passed for 255 yards and rushed for 12 yards (267 total) in Super Bowl LVIII, over the 261.5-yard under line (ESPN box score, gameId 401547378). (255 pass + 12 rush = 267 total yds)
“We're going to go with our wrong team favorite, Kansas State Wildcats plus the five against Kansas tonight.”
Kansas State 75, Kansas 70 — Kansas State upset #4 Kansas 75-70 in overtime on Feb 5, 2024, winning outright, so Kansas State +5 covered easily (ESPN box score).
“I love Travis Kelsey here. Over 70 and a half receiving yards here. It's going to be my start the week off on my Super Bowl props.”
Travis Kelce caught 9 passes for 93 yards in Super Bowl LVIII, clearing the 70.5-yard line (ESPN box score, gameId 401547378). (9 rec, 93 yds)
“we're gonna go christian mccaffrey anytime touchdown minus 220 we're gonna go all the way up on a monday level three lock”
Christian McCaffrey caught a 21-yard touchdown pass from Jauan Jennings on a trick play in the 2nd quarter of Super Bowl LVIII (ESPN box score/play-by-play, gameId 401547378). (1 rec TD (21-yd trick-play pass from Jennings))
“In Jim, the Buffalo Sabres here rise again to finish the season with over 82.5 points plus 106.”
Buffalo Sabres finished the 2023-24 NHL regular season 39-37-6 for 84 points, over the 82.5 line (ESPN Sabres team page). (84 points (39-37-6))
“We're going to go with a wrong team favorite. The Princeton Tigers fight back here and knock off the Yale Bulldogs. Yeah. Wrong team favorite. Nice. A little wrong team favorite action. A couple of the smart schools. Yale and Princeton going at it right there. Yale is the favorite in this one again. Yale is minus three and a half, excuse me, versus Prin”
Yale 70, Princeton 64 — Yale beat Princeton 70-64 on Feb 2, 2024, a 6-point margin, so Princeton +3.5 did not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“Iowa Hawkeyes here. Rollout special over Ohio State in college basketball on Friday night. Man, these are two teams that both need dubs, man. They both need wins pretty bad, right? They want to make that deep run. They need to go ahead and start stacking some wins right there. Iowa going up against Ohio State. Again, FanDuel.com line on that one. Iowa minus 4.5 versus Ohio State.”
Iowa 79, Ohio State 77 — Iowa beat Ohio State 79-77 on Feb 2, 2024, only a 2-point margin, short of Iowa's -4.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“So the Heat finally got on the right side of the ledger here. Washington, they might go on a 17 out of 18 losing skid here. So we're going to ride the Heat here. You're saying, ah, it's almost double digits. I think Heat's going to win this game by 15 to 25 points. And also, Jaime Hacquez, he's back. He missed six games. I think he's the guy that fuels this team besides Jimmy Butler here. We're going to win a level two lock to finish off the week here. Miami Heat, big time over the Washington Wizards. There it is right there. Yeah, the Wizards stink, man. They're just awful. They're not good anywhere. Again, 9-38 coming into this game. They're just waiting for the end of the season, and it's not close yet. So, yeah, they got some games to still go ahead and play, but they are definitely looking towards the future. FanDuel.com on this one again. The Heat minus eight versus Washington Wizards.”
Miami 110, Washington 102 — Miami Heat beat Washington 110-102 on Feb 2, 2024, an exact 8-point margin, landing precisely on the Heat -8 line for a push (ESPN scoreboard).
“We're going to go over 22.5 points here. Jalen Brunson here. Hit the gym.”
NY 109, IND 105 — Jalen Brunson scored 40 points as the Knicks beat the Pacers 109-105; 40 covers the Over 22.5 (ESPN box score). (Jalen Brunson: 40 points)
“Believe it or not, I'm going to lay the 11 points here. Blowout special, Boston Celtics over the L.A. Bakers tonight.”
LAL 114, BOS 105 — Lakers beat Celtics 114-105 despite missing LeBron James and Anthony Davis; Boston's -9 margin fails to cover -11 (ESPN).
“We're going to go on Thursday all the way up level three lock, Wisconsin Badgers over the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Boom, there it is right there, a level three lock on a Thursday right there, focusing on Wisconsin going against Nebraska. Again, this looks to be a really good game, man. Excited about it. It's a reason why it's a pick-em, and it's a top-ten team. So I've been watching all these college hoop games, all these top 10 teams. As soon as you see where you're ranked, you know that you're on upset alert with everything that's been going on this year in college hoops. But looking forward to this one, level three lock. Again, Wisconsin is a pick them with Nebraska.”
NEB 80, WIS 72 — Nebraska upset No. 6 Wisconsin 80-72 in overtime; Badgers lost outright, busting the pick'em (ESPN).
“I'm going to go Wichita State here over Tulsa and Tulsa, Oklahoma. Hidden gem. Boom. There it is right there. rolling with Wichita State as they take on Tulsa. There you go. I like that, man. That is definitely a hidden gem. That is something, again, we don't talk about these teams too often, but Tulsa, Wichita State, they can light it up. They can get it through the hoop. So there you go. I like that. Hidden gem starting us off today here on Locked On Bets. Again, FanDuel.com. Line on this one. Tulsa minus one and a half versus Wichita State.”
TLSA 79, WICH 68 — Tulsa beat Wichita State 79-68 outright; Shockers' -11 margin fails to cover +1.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“we're going to go with a wrong team favorite, Sacramento Kings here. I think they keep on rolling here in Miami here over the Miami Heat. And the Miami Heat losing eight straight games. I love the Sacramento Kings, wrong team favorite. Man, there it is right there. I know that that pains you to say Miami Heat losing eight straight games. That could not have been easy for one Lee Sterling to say that, who is a resident there and always checking out, always in attendance of the Miami Heat games, man. That's got to be a tough one. But I'll say this, Sacramento, like you said, really fun, young team. They score a lot of points. They get after it. They're fast, too, that speed that they have. You know, baseline to baseline is something that is not easy to deal with, period. So there we go. The WTF, the wrong team favorite. Talking about the Heat, minus one and a half versus Sacramento Kings.”
MIA 115, SAC 106 — Heat beat Kings 115-106 (Jimmy Butler 31 pts); Sacramento's -9 margin fails to cover +1.5 (ESPN).
“the LA Clippers minus 12 over Washington tonight.”
LAC 125, WSH 109 — Clippers beat Wizards 125-109; LA's +16 margin covers the -12 line (ESPN).
“Air Force minus 3 versus Wyoming. Break this one down for us. Okay, so we're going to talk about a bunch of games today where there's situational plays that I might like the team that I'm going against because I know them so well and I know their weaknesses also. Travel, things like that. So I like Jeff Linder a lot. I think he's a really good coach for Wyoming. He came in during COVID and boy, started to build something and then last year decimated with injuries. I mean, I don't know if I've ever seen a team. They were signing up guys from the student body just to put in uniform to finish the year. It was that bad. This year, they turned things around 11-9 overall, 4-3 in the Mountain West Conference, which is pretty good because the Mountain West Conference is strong. Now, Air Force, you look at their record, 8-11, 1-6 in the Mountain West Conference, you're thinking, well, at home, we're only getting a couple points. I might want to go here with Wyoming. They're playing better of late. So Air Force did win one of their last games here. But this is a team, Air Force, that does one thing really well. They run a lot of set plays. And they have a bunch of guys that are athletic wings, 6'7", 6'8", guys. And I think Wyoming likes to play a little more helter-skelter. They like to play at a faster pace. So I think Air Force, with these set plays, with athletic wings, is going to give them problems here. So I respect Wyoming. You look at the rankings, both these teams are almost identical, 184th ranked overall in Ken Palm, another 186th. But sometimes, like I said, the rankings don't tell you a whole lot. So I like Ryan Petratis. Petratis is the top scorer here for Air Force, 17 points per game, almost six rebounds, four assists per game. And I just think he is going to have a big game here. So, like I said, sometimes just, you know, you look at a certain team and the Cowboys defense is probably the worst unit here in the game. They rank 230th in the nation here. So these strong wings here, 6'7", 6'8", guys, going to give Wyoming some problems here. We're going to go Air Force plus the points here over Wyoming at home here.”
WYO 83, AF 72 — Wyoming beat Air Force 83-72 outright; Falcons' -11 margin fails to cover +3 (ESPN team schedule).
“We're going to go here with a blowout special here, college basketball, Big 12 action, Kansas State here over Oklahoma. There it is right there. K-State, love what the Wildcats got going on. Really do think that they have a heck of a program that they're building there. Definitely excited by it. And, of course, Big 12, college hoops action. Always love it. We saw some on Monday night with Houston and Texas. We saw some great action over the weekend with Baylor and TCU that went to triple overtime. K-State, Oklahoma. Well, K-State led by Jerome Tang. He's a hell of a coach, so he's going to do some good things. Again, blowout special there. K-State minus three versus the Oklahoma Sooners.”
OU 73, KSU 53 — Oklahoma routed Kansas State 73-53 on the road; Wildcats' -20 margin fails to cover -3 (ESPN).
“We're going to go with a level two lock on Tuesday here. Atlanta Hawks here, minus the four and a half. They win easy over the LA Fakers.”
ATL 138, LAL 122 — Hawks beat Lakers 138-122; Atlanta's +16 margin covers the -4.5 line (ESPN).
“Four points. Give me the four points here. Hidden gem. Washington Wizards here over the San Antonio Spurs.”
WSH 118, SA 113 — Wizards beat Spurs 118-113; Washington's +5 margin covers the +4 line (ESPN).
“We're going to go the wrong team favorite, Texas Longhorns here, plus the five points against the number four-ranked Easton Cougars.”
HOU 76, TEX 72 — Houston beat Texas 76-72 in OT; Longhorns' -4 margin covers the +5 line (ESPN).
“I'm going to lay the small spot here. We're going to go and end the day with a blowout special. Duke over Virginia Tech in ACC action tonight in basketball. There it is right there. Blowout special. Duke over Virginia Tech. And, yeah, man, the 12th-ranked Dukies, I expect them to get the big-time W over Virginia Tech. But another fun game to pay attention to. It's never bad when Duke is in action. So it makes for a really good Monday. Great way to start the week. So there you go. Again, the blowout special. Duke minus two and a half versus Virginia Tech”
DUKE 77, VT 67 — Duke beat Virginia Tech 77-67; Blue Devils' +10 margin covers the -2.5 line (ESPN).
“We're going to go with a And Jim here, over 244 total points, Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks.”
DAL 148, ATL 143 — Mavericks beat Hawks 148-143 (Luka Doncic's 73-point game); combined 291 covers the Over 244 (ESPN).
“We're going to lay the three points here on Friday night. Big 10 battle, the Wisconsin Badgers minus a three over the Michigan State Spartans.”
WIS 81, MSU 66 — Wisconsin beat Michigan State 81-66; Badgers' +15 margin covers the -3 line (ESPN).
“We're going to go all the way up here on a Friday, a level three block here, the Baltimore Ravens over the Kansas City Chiefs. Boom, there it is right there. Action Jackson. I guarantee you, everyone, when you said that they've got the best weapon in the game, everyone thought you were going to say Lamar Jackson. I know I thought you were going to say Lamar Jackson, and you dropped Justin Tucker, and, man, that's such a great point. Justin Tucker is so Mr. Automatic, and I don't want to be that guy. I don't want to be broadcaster jinxer, but, man, Justin Tucker is fantastic, and I could definitely see him being an ultimate weapon in this one. Again, the Ravens are hosting the Kansas City Chiefs, and did you know this? And I did not realize this until I saw it. I thought, oh, that does actually make a lot of sense. The Baltimore Ravens have never hosted a championship game. Think about that. Wow. The Baltimore Ravens. Now, the Baltimore Colts did. The Colts did. The Baltimore Colts, but not the Ravens. So, yeah, that's pretty wild to even think of. They've won Super Bowls. So the two Super Bowls they won after that, that's crazy that they won on the road. I forgot that they won the championship games on the road. Pretty wild, man. Pretty wild to think about. But there you go, man. That's a good one. I'm excited about this upcoming weekend. There's no weekend that's better than championship weekend. And we've got the Ravens and the Chiefs looking forward to that one in a major way. Lee Sterling went all the way up. Level 3 lock. Baltimore minus 3.5 versus KansasCityFanDuel.com line on that one.”
KC 17, BAL 10 — Chiefs beat Ravens 17-10 in the AFC Championship; Baltimore's -7 margin fails to cover -3.5 (Wikipedia game summary).
“We're going to go with the wrong team favorite here. I think Arizona will win by 10 to 13, 10 to 14 points, but 18 is way too much. Oregon State Beavers wrong team favorite tonight against Arizona in Pac-12 play.”
ORST 83, ARIZ 80 — Oregon State beat Arizona 83-80 on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer; Beavers +18 covers easily as outright winners (ESPN).
“We're going to go to Miami Heat here. Another wrong team favorite. I think this game goes right down to the wire. I don't see Miami getting blown out. And this is a game that you're going to be at. You'll be in attendance to this one, right? There you go. I'll make sure I buy a pizza there. that won't be overcome. Right, that part right there. Go ahead and get a pizza that's already taken care of so you don't burn it. And then hopefully it'll be the Miami Heat that's cooking, not you in the kitchen. So there you go, a little NBA action, WTF number two, the wrong team favorite, Celtics minus eight versus Miami.”
BOS 143, MIA 110 — Celtics routed the Heat 143-110; Miami's -33 margin blows through the +8 line (ESPN).
“I'm going to go under, under 51 total points on a Thursday. Level two lock in the Detroit-San Francisco game.”
SF 34, DET 31 — 49ers beat Lions 34-31 in the NFC Championship; combined 65 points busts the Under 51 (Wikipedia game summary).
“I'm going to take the Auburn Tigers here plus three and a half points over the Alabama Crimson Tide. Wrong team favorite.”
ALA 79, AUB 75 — Alabama beat Auburn 79-75; Auburn's -4 margin fails to cover +3.5 (Wikipedia 2023-24 Alabama Crimson Tide game log).
“Minnesota minus 11. It's the first game of a road trip. They're not going to be tired here. Yeah, maybe on the third game, but not the first game after that stunning loss at home. We're going to lay the 11th. They might win this game by 20 to 25 points here. Minnesota Timberwolves, a well-out special over the Washington Wizards.”
MIN 118, WSH 107 — Minnesota beat Washington 118-107; Timberwolves' +11 margin exactly matches the -11 line, a push (Wikipedia 2023-24 Minnesota Timberwolves season game log).
“The Vancouver Canucks minus one and a half goals plus 105 over the St. Louis Blues. We're going to go with a level one lock.”
STL 4, VAN 3 (OT) — St. Louis beat Vancouver 4-3 in overtime; Canucks' -1 margin fails to cover -1.5 on the puck line (Wikipedia 2023-24 Vancouver Canucks season game log).
“We're going to go with the wrong team favorite. We're going to take the L.A. Lakers tonight, plus almost double digits, playing in the same arena where they normally play. Are you kidding me? I think this game goes right down to the wire. They might even win it outright. Boom, there it is right there. The Clippers are minus nine versus the Lakers,”
LAC 127, LAL 116 — The Clippers beat the Lakers 127-116; Lakers' -11 margin fails to cover +9 (Wikipedia 2023-24 Los Angeles Lakers season game log).
“So I'm going to go over, over on the player prop, over 22 and a half. Points total, points, rebounds, and assists here. I think he might hit 27 28 maybe even 30 here total as they possibly put a hurtin on the Brooklyn Nets So O Inanobi here over 22 here Points, assists, and rebounds here for the New York Knicks here.”
OG Anunoby had 10 points, 5 rebounds and 1 assist (16 PRA) vs Brooklyn on Jan 23 2024, well under his 22.5 line (StatMuse). (OG Anunoby 10p/5r/1a = 16 PRA)
“we're going to lay the spot here on the road. Sometimes you got to lay it if you want to play it. We're going to go to level three lock on a Tuesday. Dayton Flyers over the LaSalle at fours. Wow, there we go. Going all the way up on a Tuesday right there. I like that. Okay, there we go. College hoop action. Looking for a big-time win for Dayton. They're minus eight versus LaSalle.”
DAY 66, LAS 54 — Dayton beat La Salle 66-54; Flyers' +12 margin covers -8 (Wikipedia 2023-24 Dayton Flyers season game log).
“Wrong team favorite. Winnipeg Jets money line plus 112.”
BOS 4, WPG 1 — Boston beat Winnipeg 4-1; Jets' moneyline loses (Wikipedia 2023-24 Winnipeg Jets season game log).
“We're going to go the blowout special here in Tobacco Road. North Carolina Tar Heels over the Wake Forest. North Carolina over Wake Forest. Again, North Carolina minus seven and a half,”
UNC 85, WAKE 64 — North Carolina beat Wake Forest 85-64; Tar Heels' +21 margin covers -7.5 (Wikipedia 2023-24 North Carolina Tar Heels game log).
“I'm going to take Dallas plus the three and a half points. Might want to maybe also look at Tim Hardaway Jr. Over points as far as a prop play. I think we're going to go right out of the gate. Level two lock on a Monday. Dallas Mavericks plus the three and a half points.”
DAL 110, BOS 119 — Boston beat Dallas 119-110; Mavericks' -9 margin fails to cover +3.5 (Wikipedia 2023-24 Dallas Mavericks season game log).
“We're going to go with Jordane plus 165 to finish this one as even the best sniper is useless against air. Charles Air Jordain plus 165 over Sean the Sniper Woodson.”
Sean Woodson defeated Charles Jourdain by split decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC 297; Jourdain did not win by finish (Wikipedia UFC 297).
“I like Detroit here. lay the lumber here. We're going to go with a blowout special. Nice. I like it. I'll tell you right now, there's already a little bit of trash talk back and forth between C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Baker Mayfield. And tend to things go wrong a little bit when Baker Mayfield starts talking some trash. Like when he plays and he just is quiet, everything is fine. When he starts puffing his chest out a little bit, talking a little trash, things have a tendency to go wrong. But I'm looking forward to this one for sure. The Lions host in Tampa Bay. Again, FanDuel.com line on that one. The Lions minus six and a half versus the Buccaneers.”
DET 31, TB 23 — Detroit beat Tampa Bay 31-23 in the NFC Divisional round; Lions' +8 margin covers -6.5 (Wikipedia 2023-24 NFL playoffs).
“Wrong team favorite, Kansas City. Take the two and a half and even some threes in a few spots here. Straight up over the Buffalo Bills.”
KC 27, BUF 24 — Kansas City beat Buffalo 27-24 in the AFC Divisional round; Chiefs win outright on the moneyline (Wikipedia 2023-24 NFL playoffs).
“And Houston's playing with house money. we're going to go the wrong team favorite i think baltimore escapes 27 23 but nine and a half points way too much”
BAL 34, HOU 10 — Baltimore routed Houston 34-10 in the AFC Divisional round; Texans' -24 margin fails to cover +9.5 (Wikipedia 2023-24 NFL playoffs).
“A little out special at the borough, FAU late at 15 over Wichita State. There it is right there. Again, the game that Lee Sterling will be in attendance of, the 25th-ranked FAU Owls taking on Wichita State in the borough.”
FAU 86, WICH 77 — Florida Atlantic beat Wichita State 86-77; FAU's +9 margin fails to cover -15 (Wikipedia 2023-24 Florida Atlantic Owls game log).
“San Francisco, 34, Green Bay 21 here. Another level two lock. There it is right there, level two lock, looking at the Niners and the Green Bay Packers. And you're right. I mean, it's got the throwback feel, but it doesn't necessarily have the throwback quarterbacks, as you mentioned. But any time you can get the 49ers and Green Bay together, It always seems like a lot of fun. Level 2 lock. FanDuel.com line on that one. The Niners minus 9.5 versus Green Bay.”
SF 24, GB 21 — San Francisco beat Green Bay 24-21 in the NFC Divisional round; 49ers' +3 margin fails to cover -9.5 (Wikipedia 2023-24 NFL playoffs).
“hidden gem under six and a half goals plus 100 florida panthers detroit red wings”
DET 3, FLA 2 (OT) — Detroit beat Florida 3-2 in overtime; combined 5 goals, under 6.5 wins (Wikipedia 2023-24 Florida Panthers season game log).
“we're gonna go with a blowout special on saturday night ufc 297 from toronto rad katona over garrett armfield there it is right there and look again if you don't have a nickname man you don't get a lot of love from me i'm gonna go ahead and give garrett a nickname how about garrett strong armfield how about that he could have come out with strong like come on come on man you gotta You got to play off words, man. Play off words. I'll give Garrett a nickname of Strong, but we're still rolling with Brad Superman. We never talked about it. What was your nickname when you were playing ball? Oh, Q. Just that simple, man. Just that simple. Everyone's like, yeah, that's going to be your name. Just Q. And so it always has been. And I'm OK with that. No Q ball or anything like that? No, no, no. Just simple. Just simple Q. So that's how we roll. So Garrett's like, yeah, see, that's simple, too. How come I can't be simple? But you're a UFC fighter. I was not. So there we go. FanDuel.com line again. Brad Superman, Cantona, minus 180 versus Garrett.”
Garrett Armfield defeated Brad Katona by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC 297; Katona's ML loses (Wikipedia UFC 297).
“We're going to go on a Wednesday and get over the hump, level two lock, Texas Tech plus the points as they travel to Houston for a Big 12 matchup. Yeah, I'm looking forward to this one, man. Love Big 12 college hoops. This is going to be a good one. The Cougars going up against the Red Raiders, number five versus number 25. And, yeah, there you go, man. College Hoops at its finest. This is really a fun time of year to check out College Hoops, and I think this is going to be a really good one. Level two lock right there talking about Texas Tech. Take the points. The Cougars are favored by 13,”
HOU 77, TTU 54 — Houston beat Texas Tech 77-54; Texas Tech's margin of -23 fails to cover +13 (Wikipedia 2023-24 Houston Cougars game log).
“So I'm going to take Ben Johnson here at plus 1,200. Bet a little, win a whole lot. He just might be your next Carolina Panthers coach, and that's the reason why they are, you know, you're not hearing really any talk about who their next coach is going to be.”
The Panthers hired Dave Canales as head coach on January 25, 2024, not Ben Johnson, so the futures bet loses.
“let's go with the butler bulldogs here plus five and a half points add xavier here wrong team favorite”
XAV 85, BUT 71 — Xavier beat Butler 85-71, a 14-point margin beyond Butler's +5.5 spread.
“We're going to lay the small spot with Philadelphia. I'm going to go with a level one lock here. Philadelphia 76ers over the champion Denver Nuggets. There you go. Right there sliding in on a Tuesday. Level one lock 76ers against the Denver Nuggets. And go ahead and take the little small spot right there. Go ahead. 76ers minus two versus Denver.”
PHI 126, DEN 121 — Philadelphia 76ers beat Denver Nuggets 126-121, a 5-point margin that clears the -2 spread.
“We're going to go the hidden gem on the Columbia Lions tonight as they travel to Yale. Nice, nice. There it is right there again. That's digging deep into the crates when you're using the Ivy schools, right? The Yales versus Columbia. So a little Yale minus 13 and a half versus Columbia.”
YALE 89, COLU 70 — Yale beat Columbia 89-70, a 19-point margin beyond Columbia's +13.5 spread.
“Blowout special, Golden State over the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night. Boom, there it is right there. And it's very rare that the Warriors these days are blowing out anybody. But there you go. Great breakdown on the reasons why they could blow out the Memphis Grizzlies later on today. A little MLK Day basketball action, which there's plenty of that going on today. But, again, the Warriors minus seven versus the Memphis Grizzlies.”
MEM 116, GS 107 — Memphis Grizzlies beat Golden State Warriors 116-107, a 9-point Warriors loss that busts the -7 spread.
“I'm going to lay the two and a half points here. We're going to start off Monday. Might be our six or seven straight winning week here. Level two lock. Philadelphia Eagles tonight over the Tampa Bay Bucs.”
TB 32, PHI 9 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers routed the Philadelphia Eagles 32-9 in the NFC Wild Card game, blowing through Philadelphia's -2.5 spread.
“We're going to go with Patrick Mahomes over 25.5 rushing yards in their game against the Dolphins on Saturday night.”
Patrick Mahomes rushed for 41 yards on 2 carries in the Chiefs' 26-7 AFC Wild Card win over Miami, clearing the 25.5 rushing yards line. (Mahomes 2 car, 41 yds)
“We're going to go the wrong team favorite, Boise State Broncos, plus six and a half.”
BOIS 64, NEV 56 — Boise State beat Nevada 64-56, an 8-point margin that clears the +6.5 spread.
“I'm going with Jim Miller here by domination and probable finish over Gabriel Benitez. This is going to be my blowout special. Boom. There it is. As long as Jim Miller doesn't go in there and act like Jim Drunken Miller. Right. As long as Jim Miller is Jim Miller, we roll with him. The Moneyline minus 130 versus Gabriel Benitez.”
Jim Miller submitted Gabriel Benitez via face crank at 3:25 of Round 3 at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 on January 13, 2024; the Miller moneyline cashes.
“I'm going to go under 44 total points. We're going to go with it with a level three lock all the way up on Friday.”
KC 26, MIA 7 — Kansas City Chiefs beat Miami Dolphins 26-7 in the AFC Wild Card game; 33 combined points is under the 44 total.
“We're going to go with the Boston Celtics here. Plus the five points. wrong team favorite as they travel up to Milwaukee.”
MIL 135, BOS 102 — Milwaukee Bucks beat Boston Celtics 135-102, a 33-point Celtics loss that busts the +5 spread.
“I like Cleveland here. We're going to go with a blowout special on Saturday. Cleveland Browns over the Houston Texans. Yeah, that Cleveland defense, man, that is so stingy, so nasty, and really the main reason why they're still hanging around, even though they're on quarterback four or five. I mean, they've gone through the quarterback gauntlet, but there's one thing that's been steady, and that has been that defense, been one of the best defenses in the league all season long, and they're going to throw a lot at the young rookie in C.J. Stroud, but I've got to give the Texans and D'Amico Ryans and Stroud a lot of credit for being in the position that they're in, again, winning their division. Nobody saw that coming, but here we are. So the Browns at Houston coming up. That's the first game Super Wild Card Weekend. Again, the FanDuel.com line on that one. The Browns minus 2.5 versus Houston Texans.”
HOU 45, CLE 14 — Houston Texans routed the Cleveland Browns 45-14 in the AFC Wild Card game, blowing through Cleveland's -2.5 spread.
“Boston Bruins money line minus 137 here level two lock”
VGK 2, BOS 1 — Vegas Golden Knights beat Boston Bruins 2-1 in overtime; the Bruins moneyline busts.
“I'm going to go with the wrong team favorite. We're going to go with the Minnesota Timberwolves. We're going to back them two nights in a row here. They go up to Boston, take this game, like I said, right down to the wire. Might even win it outright, getting eight and a half points in Beantown.”
BOS 127, MIN 120 — Boston Celtics beat Minnesota Timberwolves 127-120 in overtime, a 7-point Timberwolves loss that falls short of the +8.5 spread.
“We're going to go with a blowout special here. North Carolina, minus the three points against North Carolina State here. I think it's going to be an easy, easy win. I like it. I like it a lot. I'm glad you brought up Baycott, man. That's one of my favorite players in college basketball. I like it, man. Smooth, steady. He's just that guy, big dude, and real strong, like you mentioned, man. So, yeah, I'm a big fan of Baycott. The number 7th ranked North Carolina Tar Heels right there going up against NC State. Blowout special action. FanDuel.com line on that one. North Carolina minus 3.5 versus NC State.”
UNC 67, NCSU 54 — North Carolina beat NC State 67-54, a 13-point margin that clears the -3.5 spread.
“We're going to go with the under 36 as a level two lock on Sunday”
BUF 31, PIT 17 — The Bills-Steelers AFC Wild Card game (postponed from Jan 14 to Jan 15, 2024 for weather) ended Buffalo 31, Pittsburgh 17 — 48 combined points, over the 36 total.
“So I think it's going to be Eric B. Enemy by default plus 1,100. Bet a little. Win a whole lot.”
The Chargers hired Jim Harbaugh as head coach in January 2024, not Eric Bieniemi, so the futures bet loses.
“So I'm going to go with the Seattle Kraken money line, minus 110 here. I think it's going to be an easy, easy win.”
SEA 5, BUF 2 — Seattle Kraken beat Buffalo Sabres 5-2; the Kraken moneyline (-110) cashes.
“we're going to go with a tuesday level two lock let's lay the four and a half points. Minnesota Timberwolves”
MIN 113, ORL 92 — Minnesota Timberwolves beat Orlando Magic 113-92, a 21-point margin that clears the -4.5 spread.
“I'm going to lay the small spot and take Monmouth here over Northeastern. It's going to be my hidden gem. Nice. There it is. Digging deep into the crates right there on this Monday. Little college hoop action again. Monmouth goes in up against Northeastern. Fandle.com line on that one. Monmouth minus two versus Northeastern.”
MONM 81, NE 62 — Monmouth beat Northeastern 81-62, covering Monmouth Hawks -2 by 17 points (ESPN box score).
“Getting four points at home here, we're going to go the wrong team favorite. We're going to go the Indiana Pacers here, plus a small spot here. I think they win this game outright against the Boston Celtics.”
IND 133, BOS 131 — Pacers beat the Celtics 133-131, so Indiana Pacers moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“I think Washington's going to win this game, getting four and a half points. Are you kidding me? I'm going all the way up on a Monday. I love Washington here. Level three lock, Washington Huskies over the Michigan Wolverines for the national championship.”
MICH 34, WASH 13 — Michigan beat Washington 34-13 in the CFP National Championship, so Washington Huskies +4.5 loses (Wikipedia, citing official CFP result).
“I'm calling for the upset here. Right team favored. The Butler Bulldogs pull off the upset against the UConn Huskies here in Big East action on Friday night.”
BTLR 81, CONN 88 — UConn beat Butler 88-81, so Butler Bulldogs moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“so we're going to go with the Philadelphia 76ers over the New York Knicks tonight. We're going to go that route here. It's going to be our blowout special. Boom, there it is right there. The 76ers over the New York Knicks. This is going to be a good one, man. This is fun only because, well, the Knicks are playing some good ball in Philadelphia. Ever since they made that trade, got rid of James Harden, sent him to L.A., and the Clippers are doing well, by the way. But, man, the 76ers have not missed a beat at all. They have been a fun team to watch, and Joel Embiid is doing Joel Embiid-type things. So there you go, man. the 76ers and the Knicks. We've got multiple hoop action games, college hoops and NBA action. It's making for a really good lead up and a ramp up into the weekend, man. This is great. 76ers minus six versus the Knicks.”
PHI 92, NY 128 — Knicks beat the 76ers 128-92, so Philadelphia 76ers -6 loses outright (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the Green Bay Packers here. We're going to lay the three points here. We're going to end the week with a level two lock.”
GB 17, CHI 9 — Packers beat the Bears 17-9, covering Green Bay Packers -3 by 5 points (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a hidden gem, James Madison Dukes. Move to 14-0 with an easy win over Louisiana Lafayette on Thursday night. There it is right there, man. Something good in the water that those James Madison athletes are drinking these days. Right again, the football team had a nice run. The hoop team off to a hell of a start. 13-0, looking to go 14-0 with a victory going up against Louisiana Lafayette. Again, FanDuel.com line on that one. James Madison minus five.”
UL 61, JMU 68 — James Madison beat Louisiana 68-61, covering James Madison Dukes -5 by 2 points (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a blowout special. The world's champion, Denver Nuggets, again over the Golden State Warriors. Yeah, Denver's going to keep on rolling, and you're right, man. The Warriors, we're seeing it happen right in front of our eyes. The team is aging. They're happy that they got those four championships, but that run is coming to an end. I mean, it's just as obvious as it can be. So, you know, again, they had a hell of a run. I was glad to be able to witness it as a fan, but that's not the team that they used to be in Denver. Well, you know how many great players they have, including the Joker, who is a walking triple-double. Love to watch the Joker play and go out there and operate. So Denver, minus three versus the Warriors. That is the blowout. special. FanDuel.com line on that one. Again, the Nuggets minus three versus the Warriors.”
GS 127, DEN 130 — Nuggets beat the Warriors 130-127, a margin of exactly 3 that pushes against Denver Nuggets -3 (ESPN box score).
“Dallas minus 13. Level three lock.”
WSH 10, DAL 38 — Cowboys beat the Commanders 38-10, covering Dallas Cowboys -13 by 15 points (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the three and a half points here with the Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore playing really well, running the football.”
BAL 10, PIT 17 — Steelers beat the Ravens 17-10, covering Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 by 3.5 points (ESPN box score).
“blowout special number two, Winnipeg Jets money line, minus 128 of the Tampa Bay Lightning.”
WPG 4, TB 2 — Jets beat the Lightning 4-2, so Winnipeg Jets moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to take Purdue, the Boilermakers here. We're going to lay the six points.”
MD 53, PUR 67 — Purdue beat Maryland 67-53, covering Purdue Boilermakers -6 by 8 points (ESPN box score).
“practically a pick'em game here. Let's go with a hidden gem here. Sacramento Kings tonight over the Atlanta Hawks. There it is right there. Starting us off with a hidden gem. And yeah, man, those Atlanta Hawks, they've got to get fixed, right? And it starts with Trey Young, as you mentioned, a really good talent, but a big-time liability defensively. So they've got to figure something out quick, fast, in a hurry is what I like to say. Fando.com line on that one. The Hawks minus one versus Sacramento Kings.”
ATL 110, SAC 117 — Kings beat the Hawks 117-110 outright, covering Sacramento Kings +1 (ESPN scoreboard).
“So we going to go with San Francisco minus 13 over Washington Blowout special on Sunday.”
WSH 10, SF 27 — 49ers beat the Commanders 27-10, covering San Francisco 49ers -13 by 4 points (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to say the Dolphins are the wrong team favorite. Miami wins this game outright here, 28-24, over the Ravens, and lays claim to the number one seed in the AFC.”
BAL 56, MIA 19 — Ravens routed the Dolphins 56-19, so Miami Dolphins moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with Texas in one of the semifinals in the Sugar Bowl here. We're going to lay the four. We're going to go with a level two lock.”
WASH 37, TEX 31 — Washington beat Texas 37-31 in the Sugar Bowl, so Texas Longhorns -4 loses outright (Wikipedia, citing official CFP result).
“And we're going to go with the wrong team favorite, North Carolina State here, outright 27-23 over Kansas State.”
KSU 28, NCSU 19 — Kansas State beat NC State 28-19 in the Pop-Tarts Bowl; NC State lost outright, busting the moneyline (Wikipedia).
“We're going to go with a blowout special Rutgers minus one and a half over Miami, Miami hurricanes.”
RUTG 31, MIA 24 — Rutgers beat Miami 31-24 in the Pinstripe Bowl; the Scarlet Knights' +7 margin covers the -1.5 spread (Wikipedia).
“We're going to go with a level one lock here. Cleveland, New York Jets under 35 total points.”
CLE 37, NYJ 20 — Browns beat Jets 37-20 on Thursday Night Football, clinching a playoff spot; combined 57 points busts the under 35 total (ESPN box score).
“We're going to start off with a hidden gem here. We're going to go with the Memphis Grizzlies plus the five.”
MEM 116, NO 115 — Grizzlies beat Pelicans 116-115 in overtime on a Ja Morant alley-oop; Memphis won outright as a +5 underdog, easily covering (ESPN box score).
“Texas State, the Bobcats are minus three and a half versus Rice. Those Rice Owls break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so my Texas State Bobcats where I played, first bowl game ever. And a lot of times when teams playing their first bowl game, they're starstruck, they're excited. You know, they don't know what the routine is here. Give them credit. They got to a bowl game, upset Baylor to start their year, shocked the world. But it turned out Baylor wasn't very good. They played a lot of really bad teams. We're talking about like Nevada. They played Louisiana Monroe, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina. And they even gave up, get this, 77 points their defense did to Arkansas State, 44, to South Alabama. I mean, the list goes on and on. The offense, really good. They score a lot. Kenny, their new coach, who got a nice contract extension, they go at a real quick pace. I mean, 10th most plays in the country, but we're just 86th in time of possession. So what does that do? leaves their defense on the field here. Defense gives up 34 points per game, but they're 116th in the country. Now, JT Daniels started the year, had a solid season. He got hurt. He's done. His career's over with a concussion. I like this young freshman, A.J. Padgett, led him to two wins to end the season, 28-7 and 24-21. They control the ball, the clock. Special teams are solid here. So I think you get a team, Rice here, just plays maybe a little bit different level of competition. And I just think that this is a team that's solid and not going to beat themselves. And I just think if you have one weakness, you're going to get exploited here in bowl games against better teams. So we're going to go with a wrong team favorite. Hate to say it, I'm going to go against my Texas State Bobcats here. The right towels here, plus the points here. They get to win straight up over Texas State in the first responder bowl here in Dallas, Texas.”
TXST 45, RICE 21 — Texas State beat Rice 45-21 in the First Responder Bowl; Rice's -24 margin busts the +3.5 spread (Wikipedia).
“so we're going to go over 67 total points tonight in the guaranteed rate ball between Kansas and UNLV we're going to start off the week with a level 2 lock”
KU 49, UNLV 36 — Kansas beat UNLV 49-36 in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl; combined 85 points clears the 67 total (Wikipedia).
“Wrong team favorite. Indianapolis Colts plus two and a half points. You know what? I don't even need the two and a half points. I'm taking Indianapolis on the money line here against the Atlanta Falcons.”
ATL 29, IND 10 — Falcons beat Colts 29-10; Indianapolis lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“Blowout special. Golden State tonight over the hapless Washington Wizards. There it is right there. The Golden State Warriors getting it done. Can they go on that run that you're talking about? They need to go on that run. They're coming into this one 13 and 14. But, man, what a comeback they had the other night against Boston to get them in overtime, as you mentioned. And, well, yeah, the Washington Wizards are not very good, so they should be able to get all over them. Jordan Poole, their ex-Warrior teammate, he's going to try to do his thing, but I don't have a lot of confidence in him. As a Warrior fan, I didn't have a lot of confidence in him when he was a Warrior, let alone when he's a Wizard. So there's that. Blowout special right there. Warriors minus 11.5 versus the Washington Wizards.”
GS 129, WSH 118 — Warriors beat Wizards 129-118; Golden State's +11 margin falls short of the -11.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Take them on the money line also here as even plus 100 here. We're going to go with the Miami Dolphins over the Dallas Cowboys. Level three lock all the way up.”
MIA 22, DAL 20 — Dolphins beat Cowboys 22-20; Miami won outright, covering the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“We're going to take South Florida plus three and a half points. Wrong team favorite against Syracuse tonight in what should be a fun bowl game here in Pocahontown, Florida.”
USF 45, SYR 0 — South Florida routed Syracuse 45-0 in the Boca Raton Bowl, the largest shutout in collegiate bowl history; USF's +45 margin covers +3.5 (Wikipedia).
“I'm going to take Utah. I'm going to lay the one point here. We're going to go with a blowout special as the Detroit Pistons lose again.”
UTAH 119, DET 111 — Jazz beat Pistons 119-111; Utah's +8 margin covers the -1 spread, extending Detroit's losing streak (ESPN box score).
“Lines only four. This line should be six, six and a half. We're going to take the L.A. Rams, and we're going to keep dialing it up. Level two lock, L.A. Rams over the New Orleans Saints tonight.”
LAR 30, NO 22 — Rams beat Saints 30-22 on Thursday Night Football; LA's +8 margin covers the -4 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm not laying 10 points here. I know Citadel doesn't have a great record. They lost their last game to Charleston, but Charleston is a quality team here. We're going to go with our hidden gem here. The Citadel Bulldogs here take it right down to the wire against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Boom. There it is right there. And, yeah, I guess in basketball, man, if you can't score, you're not going to win. Right? Right. So it's just as simple as that. If you can't score, you're not going to win a whole lot of games. So there you go, rocking with the Citadel over Notre Dame. That is our hidden gem here on Locked on Bets. Again, FanDuel.com line on that one. Notre Dame minus 9.5 versus Citadel.”
Citadel 65, Notre Dame 45 — The Citadel upset Notre Dame 65-45 on the road; Citadel +9.5 covers easily. (ESPN box score)
“UTSA minus 12.5 versus Marshall. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yes, so Marshall, I pegged them early. Even though they were winning early, they are a team, I think, in turmoil. They have really come down from the last couple years. They had to struggle just to go 6-6. They won their first four games. Looked like they were okay offensively through the first six games, but since then they dropped four of six. And in their losses, they have been really bad, averaging just six points per game. Roadrunners, kind of middle-tiered defensively, ranked 57th in points allowed. They do have one really bad loss to Army, but otherwise, they take care of business. So they did fall to Tennessee did fall to Tulane two very good teams And in those games Harris their quarterback Frank Harris who I love they gave him you like three or four interceptions against Tulane Just one of those games he was hurt probably shouldn have played in the game And that played a big factor in that game. But just six of the other eight games, they won by double digits. Love the quarterback, Frank Harris. They were receiver Joshua Cephas. Really good. I mean, these are next-level guys. I think they're going to be playing in the NFL. So I don't know how Marshall's going to slow him down. Their starting quarterback, Cam Fancher, just wasn't getting it done. He left the program in the transfer portal. They're going to start a name you're very familiar with, the Pennington name, Cole Pennington. But Cole Pennington, not like his father, does not have a touchdown pass in his brief career. 79 attempts, zero touchdowns, six interceptions. Maybe he's going to be something. He's just not there yet. UTSA allows just 3.8 yards per carry, which is the way I think Marshall's going to have to go if they want to move here. And then once they get a double-digit lead, UTSA, the running roadrunners here, 40 sacks on the year. I think they're going to stuff the run here, get to the quarterback, force some mistakes here. It's going to be an easy win. we're going to go the UTSA Roadrunners here over the Marshall Thundering Herd. I think they win this game by 21 to 25 points.”
UTSA 35, Marshall 17 — UTSA beat Marshall 35-17 in the Frisco Bowl (margin 18); UTSA -12.5 covers. (ESPN box score)
“We're going to go with a wrong team favorite, Golden State Warriors tonight. Maybe pull the shocking upset against the Boston Celtics.”
Golden State 132, Boston 126 (OT) — Warriors beat Celtics 132-126 in overtime; Golden State moneyline covers. (ESPN box score)
“Murray State, the racers here, minus one hidden gem over Arkansas Little Rock.”
Little Rock 80, Murray State 66 — Little Rock beat Murray State 80-66 outright; Murray State -1 busts. (ESPN box score)
“Miami Heat getting a point and a half at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves here. Wrong team favorite.”
Minnesota 112, Miami 108 — Timberwolves beat Heat 112-108 (margin 4); Miami +1.5 busts. (ESPN box score)
“Week 15 comes to a close with the Philadelphia Eagles and the Seattle Seahawks. The Eagles 10-3 on the season, but have lost a couple games. They need to get a dub. Seattle 6-7. There was a time where they were looking pretty good in 2023, starting to fall off a little bit there. FanDuel.com lying on this one. Philadelphia minus 3.5 versus Seattle. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so Philadelphia at one time was just running away with it. Everyone thinks, you know, sitting at 10-1, they're going to just keep winning, but it's not been the case. And the reason they've lost a couple games in a row, well, they've been out-yarded by opponents six straight times after the Dallas game. And they were out game in that game 394-324. And the Cowboys 33-13 win. And most of those yards came late in the game. They have got some problems right now especially on defense Darius Slay knee injury he going to be out for a while And when you lose your top guy it a trickle effect So the number two guy has to be the number one guy Number three guy has got to be the number two guy. The number four guy that rarely plays, he's the number three guy. In Seattle, believe it or not, I think they have top two, top three receivers in the NFL. All three of their receivers are potential number ones on any team, and they can have days where they go for 100, 150, 200 yards. They are that good. And believe it or not, Seattle's passing offense, top 15 in the NFL here. They can run when they have to. What they do is they rotate three different running backs, rotate Zach Charbonneau, Kenneth Walker, and DJ Dallas running and catching the ball, and they do a good job there. I like their play calling. It looks like they're going to get back possibly Jamal Adams here. I think their cornerbacks, Devin Witherspoon, a rookie, is incredible. They have a bunch of guys. This is questionable. I think almost every single one of them will play in this game. This is a must-win game for Seattle and I think Philadelphia. They watch TV and they say, hey, Dallas lost. If we lose, we're still going to be tied with them, and we have the tiebreaker. That's the big thing. And Dallas has got to go to Miami, who all of a sudden looks like they're one of the beasts again here. So I'm going to take the three and a half points. We're going to start off Monday with a level two lock. Boom, level two lock right there, rolling with the three and a half points for Seattle.”
Seattle 20, Philadelphia 17 — Seahawks beat Eagles 20-17 (margin 3); Seattle +3.5 covers. (ESPN box score)
“Louisiana Lafayette plus the three points over Jacksonville State here. Wrong team favorite tomorrow.”
Jacksonville State 34, Louisiana 31 (OT) — Jacksonville State beat Louisiana 34-31 in overtime in the New Orleans Bowl (margin 3); Louisiana +3 pushes exactly. (ESPN box score)
“I'm going to lay the three and a half points. We're going to go with a blowout special on Friday night. We're going to go with the UConn Huskies minus the three and a half over Gonzaga.”
UConn 76, Gonzaga 63 — UConn beat Gonzaga 76-63 (margin 13); UConn -3.5 covers. (ESPN box score)
“i think buffalo at home is the right side here i'm gonna lay the two points buffalo bills 34 24 over Dallas. We're going to go all the way up. Level three lock on a Friday. Buffalo over Dallas.”
Buffalo 31, Dallas 10 — Bills beat Cowboys 31-10 (margin 21); Buffalo -2 covers. (ESPN box score)
“which is not even in the top 80 So I think Texas is going to be in the finals and for that reason you get them plus 250 and might be a pick they might be favored So I think there's some value there. I'm going to go with that a little, with a whole lot here on the Texas Longhorns”
Michigan 34, Washington 13 — Michigan beat Washington 34-13 to win the 2024 CFP National Championship on Jan 8, 2024; Texas did not win the title, so the futures pick busts. (ESPN)
“We're going to go the wrong team favorite. We're going with the Furman Purple Paladins plus the seven and a half points to maybe pull the shocker of the two-lane green wave here.”
Tulane 117, Furman 110 (2OT) — Tulane beat Furman 117-110 in double overtime (margin 7); Furman +7.5 covers. (ESPN box score)
“A blowout special L.A. Clippers tonight in NBA action over the Draymond-less Green Golden State Warriors in the NBA. There it is. A blowout special action. I'll tell you what, I've been pretty impressed that the Clippers have stayed healthy. Right? I mean, that's always been their big bugaboo is the fact that, you know, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George never can stay healthy, but to the point that you brought up, Kawhi has been healthy. PG's been out there doing his thing and obviously they've got a lot of talent can they keep it together over the course of the season it's something to obviously pay attention to but right now playing some really good balls the blowout special the Clippers 13 and 10 on the season minus five and a half against the Warriors”
LA Clippers 121, Golden State 113 — Clippers beat Warriors 121-113 (margin 8); LA Clippers -5.5 covers. (ESPN box score)
“here I think Vegas gets it done here might be an odd score 25-13 over the Chargers Whoa, you know what? That'd be a whole lot of points. That would be a welcome by Raider Nation. Would love to see 25 points. Haven't seen 25 points very often this season. Matter of fact, only once. Maybe Jimmy G. Who knows? Maybe if Aiden O'Connell starts low, we see an appearance by Jimmy G. Yeah, I would not be surprised. Would not be surprised at all to see that happen if, like you mentioned, Aiden O'Connell starts off a little bit slow. There you go. What level lock we got here, Lee? We're going to go with a level two lock. Ooh, I thought you were going all the way up. we got close. Almost. Nah, nah, nah. Slow your roll there, Q. Level two lock. Fando.com line on this one. The Raiders minus three”
Las Vegas 63, LA Chargers 21 — Raiders routed the Chargers 63-21 (margin 42); Las Vegas -3 covers easily. (ESPN box score)
“This line should be like plus 105, plus 126. The wrong team is favored. The Montreal Canadiens take down the Pittsburgh Penguins at the Bell Center tonight.”
Pittsburgh 4, Montreal 3 (SO) — Penguins beat Canadiens 4-3 in a shootout; Montreal moneyline busts. (ESPN box score)
“I think Creighton wins easily here and covers the big number. I think they win this game by 20 to 25 points. We're going to go with a blowout special, the Creighton Blue Jays over your hometown, UNLV, not so running Rebels. Yeah, they're not so running Rebels, man. UNLV on the football field played a really good season, right? Coach Barry Odom had them cooking all year long. And I'll tell you right now, Coach Krueger with the Running Rebels, not so much. They are not playing good. You mentioned a couple of those bad losses that they had, and those are exactly what those are, bad losses. So, yeah, I expect this one to be a big-time blowout as well. FanDuel.com line on the Creighton, minus 12.5 versus UNLV coming up later on this evening.”
UNLV 79, Creighton 64 — UNLV beat Creighton 79-64 outright; Creighton -12.5 busts. (ESPN box score)
“I'm going to take the four and a half points here in this game. We're going to take Boise State. We're going to go the wrong team favorite in the L.A. Bowl here.”
UCLA 35, Boise State 22 — UCLA beat Boise State 35-22 in the LA Bowl (margin 13); Boise State +4.5 busts. (ESPN box score)
“So I think you lay the big spot here. I see them winning this game by 40 to 45 points. We're going to go with the Tennessee Volunteers as the hidden gem over the winless Georgia Southern Eagles. Man, 32 and a half points. That's a lot of points right there. That's a great breakdown from Lee getting the FanDuel.com line on that one. Tennessee minus 32 and a half versus Georgia Southern, as he mentioned, winless on the season.”
Tennessee 74, Georgia Southern 56 — Tennessee beat Georgia Southern 74-56 (margin +18), well short of the -32.5 spread; pick busts. (ESPN box score)
“I'm going to lay the one and a half points here. We're going to go the L.A. Lakers blowout special here over the weary Dallas Mavericks.”
Dallas 127, LA Lakers 125 — Mavericks beat Lakers 127-125; Lakers lost outright, busting the -1.5 spread. (ESPN box score)
“Take the over 6.5 goals tonight. It's going to be a level one lock. Boom, level one lock right there. Over 6.5 goals minus 105 between the Blues and the Red Wings. Classic game right here and a lot of goals scored. I like that. You get a goal, you get a goal, you get a goal on this one. Blues, Red Wings, over six and a half goals, minus 105, level one lock on this Tuesday.”
Detroit 6, St. Louis 4 — Red Wings beat Blues 6-4; the combined 10 goals clears the Over 6.5. (ESPN box score)
“We're going to go with the wrong team favored on Monday. We're going to go with the Cleveland Cavaliers plus the spot here. I think they win this game outright. Play them on the money line over the Orlando Magic”
ORL 104-CLE 94 — Magic beat Cavaliers 104-94; Cleveland's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a blowout special. I think Green Bay wins this game something like 31-14.”
NYG 24-GB 22 — Giants beat Packers 24-22 on a late field goal; Green Bay's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a level two lock to start the week off. The Miami Dolphins here, minus the 13.5 against the Tennessee Titans.”
MIA 27-TEN 28 — Titans beat Dolphins 28-27 on two late touchdowns; Miami lost outright, missing the -13.5 spread by a wide margin (ESPN box score).
“So I think this is going to be an easy winner here for the High Point Panthers. I'm going to lay the 20 points. This is going to be my hidden gem, High Point Panthers over the North Carolina A&T Aggies.”
HPU 75-NCAT 62 — High Point beat North Carolina A&T 75-62; the Panthers won by only 13, missing the -20 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take the two points. Wrong team favorite. Indianapolis Colts over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.”
CIN 34-IND 14 — Bengals routed Colts 34-14; Indianapolis lost by 20, missing the +2 spread (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go over 40 total points in this Minnesota game against the Las Vegas Raiders. It's going to be a level two lock.”
LV 0-MIN 3 — Vikings beat Raiders 3-0 in the lowest-scoring NFL game in 16 years; the combined 3 points fall well under the 40-point total (ESPN box score).
“North Dakota State, the Bison going up against Portland, the Pilots. Both teams come in at 5-4 on the season. FanDuel.com line on this one. North Dakota State minus two versus Portland. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right. So some people call them the Portland Pilots. That's their correct name. Some people call them the Fighting Eric Spolsters. That where he played his college ball I think actually from what I hearing he a pretty good college point guard So you know he feisty And Portland has been really good at home So is North Dakota State. When I look at almost every single stat, these two teams are like almost mirror images of each other. They score almost about the same. Their three-point percentage, almost about the same. Their defense, almost about the same. block shots almost exactly the same here but the one biggest difference is home court advantage fargo north dakota has been very kind to north dakota state three and one at home they played a bunch of road games so far that's why they're five and four but uh portland has struggled oh and two on the road in fact they have shot less than 10 percent better on the road that's a big problem here and uh north dakota state like i said shoots almost 10 better when they're at home so three point shooting home court advantage is huge here you know sometimes that's just the difference two things are big enough here uh to ride the home court came here north dakota state bison so we're gonna lay the small spot here take the bison at home over the portland pilots hidden gem boom”
NDSU 78-PORT 67 — North Dakota State beat Portland 78-67 at home, covering the -2 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're going to lay the five-and-a-half here tonight, one of the semifinals of the in-league tournament here. We're going to go the Milwaukee Bucks here, blowout special over the Indiana Pacers.”
MIL 119-IND 128 — Pacers beat Bucks 128-119 in the NBA In-Season Tournament semifinal; Milwaukee lost outright, missing the -5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
- Pittsburgh Steelers PK (teased from -6)
- Under (teased from 30.5 to 36.5)
“So we're going to go with the Pittsburgh Steelers as a pick-em, move it from six points down to a pick-em, and we're going to take the total, which is 30.5, move it to 36.5, and play the under. So we're going to go with Pittsburgh pick-em and the under 36.5 here as a two-team six-point teaser.”
NE 21-PIT 18 — Patriots beat Steelers 21-18; the Steelers pick-em leg lost outright and the combined 39 points also went over the teased 36.5 total, so both legs of the two-team teaser bust (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go to the hidden gem. William and Mary tribe here, plus the four and a half points at home over the old Dominion Monarchs.”
ODU 79-WM 84 — William & Mary beat Old Dominion 84-79 outright, covering the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with another blowout special. Florida Panthers money line minus 110 over the Dallas Stars tonight.”
FLA 5-DAL 4 — Panthers beat Stars 5-4; Florida's moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to take Oklahoma City tonight here. We're going to go not all the way up, but a level two lock, Oklahoma City over the Houston Rockets. There you go. Hey, you got close. You got close. Went with a level two lock right there, Oklahoma City over the Houston Rockets. And I was anticipating it. I was waiting. I was sitting on the edge of my seat waiting to see how high you were going to go. If it was going to be a level one, level two, or level three, went to a level two lock, Oklahoma City Thunder at the Houston Rockets. Again, FanDuel.com line on that one, the Thunder minus two versus the Rockets.”
OKC 101-HOU 110 — Rockets beat Thunder 110-101; Oklahoma City lost outright, missing the -2 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go to level three lock here right out of the gate. Detroit! Brody loves it. Red Wings money line minus 128 here over the Buffalo Sabres.”
DET 5-BUF 3 — Red Wings beat Sabres 5-3; Detroit's moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“We're going to keep riding the Lakers and think that they're going to move on to Las Vegas. L.A. Lakers over the Phoenix Suns tonight. There it is right there. Blowout special number one. Lakers and Suns in-season tournament. It's been a fun tournament so far. Lakers and Suns. Again, FanDuel.com line on it. L.A. minus one and a half versus Phoenix.”
LAL 106-PHX 103 — Lakers beat Suns 106-103 in the NBA In-Season Tournament quarterfinal; Los Angeles won by 3, covering the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with another blowout special. Milwaukee Bucks here over the New York Knicks tonight. They also end up going to Las Vegas. Boom. In-season tournament, more action. Blowout special number two, the Bucs over the Knicks. And I really do like the team that the Bucs have put together. And I think that Dame and Giannis are going to continue to grow together and really learn their roles and play off each other really well. That's going to be a fun team to continue to watch and definitely fun in the in-season tournament. And, again, as I mentioned before, tournament, in my opinion, has been a huge success for the NBA. That's blowout special number two. Milwaukee Bucks minus four and a half versus New York Knicks.”
MIL 146-NY 122 — Bucks routed Knicks 146-122 in the NBA In-Season Tournament quarterfinal; Milwaukee's -4.5 spread covers easily (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a hidden gem, the Cal Poly, that's right, Mustangs, plus the 14.”
OSU 70-CP 63 — Oregon State beat Cal Poly 70-63 in double overtime; Cal Poly lost by 7, well inside the +14 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're going to lay the three and a half points. We're going to go with the Sacramento Kings and say they move on to Las Vegas over the New Orleans Pelicans.”
SAC 117-NO 127 — Pelicans beat Kings 127-117 in the NBA In-Season Tournament quarterfinal; Sacramento lost by 10, missing the -3.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“We're going to take Cincinnati plus 10 on a Monday. We're going to go all the way up on a Monday. Cincinnati Bengals plus 10 level three lock.”
JAX 31-CIN 34 — Bengals beat Jaguars 34-31 in overtime; Cincinnati won outright, comfortably covering the +10 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go the wrong team favored. Green Bay here plus the points gets the job done. Boom, there it is right there. Kansas City wins the game, but Green Bay keeps it really close, and that's all that matters. Talking about the WTF, the wrong team favored. The Chiefs minus six versus the Green Bay Packers. Again, some Week 13 action. It's crazy how Green Bay felt like that they were out of there. And now, well, they have an opportunity to be in there, but they've obviously got to win some big games down the stretch. But here they are again. Kansas City coming in 8-3, Green Bay 5-6. Again, one more time, FanDuel.com line on this one. The Chiefs minus 6 versus Green Bay.”
GB 27, KC 19 — Packers beat the Chiefs 27-19; Green Bay covers +6 by winning outright (ESPN).
“I'm going to lay the points here. We're going to go with a blowout special. I think BYU wins this game by 25-30 over Fresno State on Friday night. Boom. There you go right there. That's an ultimate blowout special right there. My man said by 25 or so points. That's one that humbles you. Fresno State would be really humbled with that kind of a blowout loss. BYU, really good team. Again, coming in 6-0 as Fresno State is 3-3. That's our blowout special. FanDuel.com line on that one. Again, the Cougars minus 14.5 versus those Fresno State Bulldogs.”
BYU 85, FSU 56 — BYU beat Fresno State 85-56, a 29-point margin that covers -14.5 (ESPN).
“I'm going to go with Louisville. I going to go with my on Friday level unlock Louisville outright 30 in the ACC Championship game over with Florida State Man there you go right there I tell you what the selection committee would love for that to happen The selection committee would love for that to happen. Can you imagine? Yes, man. Florida State, of course, they don't have their main quarterback. He went down with a season and career ending as far as college football goes. Injury. And so Florida State, they're trying not to penalize them for not having their quarterback, but they want to penalize them for not having their quarterback. Louisville beating Florida State would be just fine by them. Really good stuff. I like that. That's a very important game this weekend, as well as Alabama and Georgia, of course, the SEC championship game. But there you go. We're talking about the ACC championship game. Level one lock. Florida State minus two versus Louisville. Again, a level one lock. Lee Sterling rolling with Louisville over Florida State.”
FSU 16, LOU 6 — Florida State beat Louisville 16-6 in the ACC Championship; Louisville moneyline busts (ESPN).
“2-16 on the young season. FanDuel.com line on this one. The Knicks, minus 13 versus Detroit. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, Q, so you have what's called the struggle bus. This is a different level. So after winning the second and third game this year against lowly Charlotte and a really bad Chicago team this year, on October 28th, they have lost every single game. That's right, 15 games in a row. And the last three were, I mean, so bad, it's almost laughable. They lost to Indiana, 136-113, basically never trailed after halftime, never led after halftime. Then they go and play Washington, the second worst team in the league, got blown out, 126-107, and then lose last night at home to Lakers, 133-107. So they got to get on the plane last night after loss and travel to New York. And you talk about being cold. This is a team that is absolutely ice cold. So you talk about where they stand 29th in turnovers. The only thing that they're above 22nd end is rebounding, and that's only because they miss so many shots. They bounce off two or three times. Like when I play basketball, I'm not a rebounder. When it bounces off two or three times and you get the rebound past the free throw line, it's not called a rebound. It's called a leebound. They should reclassify watching their game. They just don't hustle. They don't do anything here. The Knicks, they've thrived from long range here, ninth in the NBA three-point shooting percentage, ace in the league in the percentage of points coming from a three-point shot. Defensively, right there, right at the top, they're seventh in defensive field goal percentage, seventh in three-point defense, which is Detroit's going to have to be playing from behind, and they just don't turn the ball over. ranked 12th in turnovers per game really good backcourt that takes care of the ball here so this is a bad setup as far as travel is concerned here and uh the team just doesn't care i mean you look at the starting lineup only one player last night shot above 50 and he wasn't even one of their top four scorers and their top three guys off the bench not even close to 50 i think the New York Knicks blowout here. The Detroit Pistons here, blowout special, number one. New York Knicks, they might double the spread and win by 26 points tonight”
NY 118, DET 112 — Knicks beat the Pistons 118-112, a 6-point margin that falls short of covering -13 (ESPN).
“blowout special number two Oregon Ducks 42-24 over the Washington Huskies”
WASH 34, ORE 31 — Washington beat Oregon 34-31 in the Pac-12 Championship; Oregon moneyline busts (ESPN).
“We going to go with a blowout special number three Dallas Cowboys here. Get the job done, 31-20 over Seattle.”
DAL 41, SEA 35 — Cowboys beat the Seahawks 41-35 on Thursday Night Football; Dallas moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“We're going to go with the New Orleans Pelicans here. Wrong team favorite against the Philadelphia 76ers. Oh, there you go right there. Nice little momentum booster right there for the Pelicans, man. They're playing some good ball right now. Again, 9-9 coming into this one. But Sixers, they're playing some really good ball, extremely well playing. Now that James Harden is no longer in that locker room. So I like Philadelphia as a strong team coming out of the East. But New Orleans making a little bit of noise. Of course, they always got to stay healthier. There's always that asterisk. But as long as they are healthy, they got their main players. FanDuel.com line again on that one. 76ers minus 2.5 versus the New Orleans Pelicans.”
NO 124, PHI 114 — Pelicans beat the 76ers 124-114; New Orleans covers +2.5 by winning outright (ESPN).
“So, we're going to go with Boise here. blowout special over UNLV here, 45-35.”
BOIS 44, UNLV 20 — Boise State beat UNLV 44-20; Broncos moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“So we're going to go on a, like I said, a big game here on Wednesday, A level two lock, Virginia Cavaliers over the Texas A&M Aggies. Nice, nice. Level two lock right there. Again, nice little tease there from Lee Sterling. Almost made me think that we were going all the way up, but didn't quite get there. We stopped on the eighth floor, and the elevator was going all the way to the tenth floor. But that's okay. We'll take it. A level two lock right there. Virginia going up against Texas A&M. Big-time college hoop action on this Wednesday. Excited about that again. FanDuel.com. Line on that one. Virginia minus two versus A&M.”
UVA 59, TAMU 47 — Virginia beat Texas A&M 59-47, a 12-point margin that covers -2 (ESPN).
“So we're going to go with a blowout special. pittsburgh penguins money line minus 113 here tonight over the nashville predators”
NSH 3, PIT 2 — Predators beat the Penguins 3-2 in overtime; Penguins moneyline busts (ESPN).
“Kentucky minus six here. Level three lock all the way up.”
UK 95, MIA 73 — Kentucky routed Miami 95-73, a 22-point margin that covers -6 (ESPN).
“So we're going to go with here a blowout special. Philadelphia 76ers in a big battle tonight over the L.A. Lakers. Oh, there it is right there. Philly's been a fun team to watch, man. Post-James Harden, they've been really good. They show what they can do with Nick Nurse and company. And the Lakers, it's basically LeBron and company. Right? I mean, LeBron, even at his age, is still putting up crazy numbers. So Philly and L.A. right there. That's our blowout special. Again, FanDuel.com line on that one. 76ers minus 5.5 versus the Lakers.”
PHI 138, LAL 94 — 76ers blew out the Lakers 138-94, a 44-point margin that crushes the -5.5 spread (ESPN).
“So we're going to lay the three points here. Actually going to buy it down to two and a half. Buy this line down to two and a half. Minnesota, last year and a half, played more close games within a touchdown than any other team. Pay the extra 20 cents. Minnesota, minus two and a half, level two lock.”
CHI 12, MIN 10 — Bears beat the Vikings 12-10 on Monday Night Football; Vikings lost outright, well short of covering -2.5 (ESPN).
“playing in the semifinals and finals do it so uh sometimes you got to lay it if you want to play it even on the road here we're going to go with Florida State here I haven't winning this game something like 38 to 17 here blowout special over the Florida Gators oh there it is the Florida State is a really good team ranked fifth in the country right now of course the injury to their quarterback was awful. Not only is the season over, his collegiate career is over, but they're going to keep on trucking as they're 11-0 ranked fifth right now as they're trying to make their way into the top four for the college football playoffs. But right now we're talking about Florida State versus Florida. FanDuel.com line on that one. The Seminoles minus six and a half”
FSU 24, UF 15 — Florida State beat Florida 24-15 on the road, a 9-point margin that covers -6.5 (ESPN).
“I'm going to go with the upset, Arkansas outright 34-31.”
MIZ 48, ARK 14 — Missouri routed Arkansas 48-14; Arkansas lost outright, so the moneyline busts (ESPN).
“I like Miami here 24-10, 24-7 over the Jets. We're going to go on a Friday almost all the way up. a level two lock Miami Dolphins over the New York Jets.”
MIA 34, NYJ 13 — Miami beat the Jets 34-13 on Black Friday; Dolphins moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“By the end of the day here, we're going to start off Thanksgiving here with a wrong team favorite, Washington Commanders here, plus the points here. I think they're going to take this game right down to the wire. Boom. There it is right there. And I feel like Washington always plays Dallas really tough. It doesn't really matter what their record is. It's just one of those things about that rivalry. And we know in the NFL, rivalries aren't quite what they used to be. But there you go. Dallas, Washington. I do believe Washington will come to play. So WTF, wrong team, favored. FanDuel.com line on that one. The Cowboys minus 11 versus the Commanders.”
45-10 — Dallas beat Washington 45-10, a 35-point margin that busts Washington's +11 (ESPN box score).
“Blowout special on Thanksgiving night. Ole Miss, big over Mississippi State.”
17-7 — Ole Miss beat Mississippi State 17-7, so the Ole Miss moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the 7.5 points here. We're going to go all the way up here. Detroit Lions a level three lock over the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving Day.”
22-29 — Green Bay beat Detroit 29-22, a 7-point margin that busts Detroit's -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to take the points here, the almost 30 points here, and the Chaminade Silver Swords here in gem against the UCLA Bruins. Boom, there it is right there. He has a whole lot of points, man, 29 and a half.”
76-48 — UCLA beat Chaminade 76-48, a 28-point margin that covers Chaminade's +29.5 (Wikipedia game log for the 2023-24 UCLA Bruins, citing the Maui Invitational bracket; not on ESPN's D-I scoreboard since Chaminade is Division II).
“We're going to go with a blowout special on Tuesday. Philadelphia 76ers to be a double-digit win over the Cleveland Cavaliers.”
119-122 — Cleveland beat Philadelphia 122-119 in overtime, so the 76ers moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the small spot. The two and a half, get it now. I think it's going to go up and close probably three and a half points. We're going to go with a level two lock Purdue tonight over Tennessee in the semifinals here in the Maui Classic.”
71-67 — Purdue beat Tennessee 71-67, a +4 margin that covers Purdue's -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“we're going to go with a hidden gem Rasheed Rice here under four and a half perceptions minus 140”
17-21 — Rashee Rice caught 4 receptions in the Chiefs' 17-21 loss to Philadelphia, under his 4.5 line (ESPN box score). (Rashee Rice 4 receptions)
“We're going with the Florida Panthers plus 110 tonight over the Edmonton Oilers.”
5-3 — Florida beat Edmonton 5-3, so the Panthers moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with UConn here, minus the five and a half points over the Texas Longhorns.”
81-71 — UConn beat Texas 81-71, a +10 margin that covers UConn's -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the Kansas City Chiefs minus the two and a half points tonight over the Philadelphia Eagles. Why not? We did it last Monday. We're going to go all the way up here. Level three lock.”
17-21 — Philadelphia beat Kansas City 21-17, a 4-point margin that busts the Chiefs' -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Wrong team favorite. I like Louisville plus the point here. I am winning this game here, 28-20. Yeah, I like Louisville a lot. I like what they've been able to do this season. They've had a hell of a run this year, and, of course, Miami is Miami, and everyone wants them to be back, right? The U, everyone wants the U to be back, but it just hasn't been what it's supposed to be. Sorry, Lee, I know I hit you where it hurts on that one. But, I mean, you know, reality is Miami's not quite where they should be, but they're fighting. They're out there fighting. But this one, I got a tip to cap the Louisville on this one as well. Again, FanDuel.com line, Miami minus one versus Louisville.”
31-38 — Louisville beat Miami 38-31 outright, which covers Louisville's +1 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the New York Knicks here. a low-out special over the hapless Washington Wizards tonight in NBA action. There it is right there. And, yeah, man, the Washington Wizards calling them hapless is a nice word for it. Right? They are on the struggle bus. They are not very good. But there you go. They're in the association, so they're still out there trying to do their thing. But they're not very successful. Two and nine coming into this one going up against the New York Knicks, who come in at six and five on the season. Again, FanDuel.com line. And the Knicks minus 6.5 versus Washington.”
120-99 — New York beat Washington 120-99, a +21 margin that covers the Knicks' -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with, how about this? all the way up. Level 3 lock. Pittsburgh Steelers here. 17-13 over Cleveland on Sunday. Boom. There it is right there going all the way up. Man, we've gone all the way up multiple times this week. It's been a lot of fun right here talking a little NFL action. Browns in Pittsburgh. It's going to be a very competitive game. Defensive game, as you mentioned. The points aren't going to be a whole lot, but there you go. Rolling with the Steelers to go all the way up. Level 3 lock. Again, FanDuel.com line. The Browns find us One and a half versus Pittsburgh.”
13-10 — Cleveland beat Pittsburgh 13-10, a 3-point margin that busts Pittsburgh's +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“I think the wrong team is favored here. Boston College, plus three, outright over the Pitt Panthers on Thursday night in college football.”
24-16 — Pitt beat Boston College 24-16, an 8-point margin that busts Boston College's +3 (ESPN box score).
“I like Miami. Minus the three. Blowout special. The Heat over the Brooklyn Nets here tonight in NBA action.”
122-115 — Miami beat Brooklyn 122-115, a +7 margin that covers Miami's -3 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take Cincinnati here. Not going to go all the way up, but a level two lock. Cincinnati Bengals here, plus the three and a half at Baltimore tonight.”
34-20 — Baltimore beat Cincinnati 34-20, a 14-point margin that busts Cincinnati's +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with a hidden gem here on Wednesday. Utah Valley here plus the points at Charlotte. Wouldn't shock me if they win this game straight up. Boom, there it is right there. ultimate hidden gem talking about Charlotte versus Utah Valley not the game that a lot of folks had on their bingo card as the expectation that we were going to break down but there you go hidden gem trying to put a little bit of money in your pocket again the FanDuel.com line on that one the 49ers minus 7”
62-45 — Charlotte beat Utah Valley 62-45, a 17-point margin that busts Utah Valley's +7 (ESPN box score).
“We're going with the Colorado Avalanche, not Moneyline, minus the one-and-a-half goals, minus 115. Blowout special here over the Anaheim Ducks.”
8-2 — Colorado beat Anaheim 8-2, a +6 margin that covers Colorado's -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to lay the small spot here. This line should be 17, 18 points here. We're going to go with a level two lock, Missouri over Florida on Saturday. Oh, there it is right there. I thought you were going to go there. I thought you were going to go there three days in a row. It felt like you were rolling to go all the way, not quite all the way up. We got that level two lock. Talking about Mizzou minus 11 versus Florida. Line's a little bit lower than it should be. So roll on that one and roll on that one early. Again, lock of the day, FanDuel.com line, Missouri minus 11 versus Florida level two lock.”
33-31 — Missouri beat Florida 33-31, a +2 margin that busts Missouri's -11 (ESPN box score).
“I like Eastern Michigan, latest small spot, three and a half here. I think this line goes up in gem here. We're going to go with the Eastern Michigan Eagles here, minus a small spot over the Akron Zips. There it is right there, the Fighting Max Crosby's of Eastern Michigan right there going up against Akron. Again, Eastern Michigan comes in at 4-6. Fando.com line on this one, Eastern Michigan minus 3.5 versus Akron.”
30-27 — Eastern Michigan beat Akron 30-27 in double overtime, a 3-point margin that falls just short of Eastern Michigan's -3.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“So I'm going to lay the small spot here. keep going against the LA Clippers as they are struggling. They're going to stay winless here since James Harden came on board. What a mistake that was here. We're going to go with a blowout special on Tuesday. Denver Nuggets over the struggling LA Clippers. Boom, there it is right there. Yeah, the Nuggets just have a really good team. No Jamal Murray, no problem, right? They're obviously coached really well by Mike Malone. And the Clippers, they've got a lot of problems. They've got a lot of issues. They'll figure it out at some point. I don't know what that looks like in the long term, but they'll figure it out to look a little bit better than they do. But they have looked terrible so far with James Harden. And another factor here, Reggie Jackson, I think, played for the Clippers too. So one of the many teams he's been with. But he was there for quite a while. And, you know, players, they always have a little chip on their shoulder when they play against their old teams. There's no doubt about that. Again, FanDuel.com line on our blowout special today. The Nuggets minus 4.5 versus the L.A. Clippers still on the way.”
111-108 — Denver beat the LA Clippers 111-108, a 3-point margin that falls short of the Nuggets' -4.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“We're going to go all the way up. We've never done this the first two days of the week. Winnipeg Jets here, money line, minus 125, level three lock over the New Jersey Devils.”
6-3 — Winnipeg beat New Jersey 6-3, winning outright as the Jets moneyline pick required (ESPN scoreboard).
“We're going to go with a hidden gem. St. John's here. St. John's minus the two. They take on Michigan. Get the job done on Monday night for Madison Square Garden.”
73-89 — Michigan beat St. John's 89-73 in the Gavitt Tipoff Games at Madison Square Garden, so St. John's -2 lost outright (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm going to go with a wrong team favorite. I'm taking all those 9.5 gorgeous points here in the New York Knicks here as they take on Boston.”
114-98 — Boston beat New York 114-98, a 16-point margin that blows through the Knicks' +9.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“You got the Buffalo Bills and the Denver Broncos. Buffalo is 5-4. Denver is 3-5. FanDuel.com line on this one. The Bills minus 7 versus the Broncos. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right. So if this game was played maybe a couple weeks ago, Buffalo's probably 9.5, 10, 10.5 point favorite. Why is the line skewed down here? Well Russell Wilson starting to play some pretty good football Backed 16 touchdowns just four interceptions completing over 66 of his passes here And then look at the Buffalo defense Buffalo's defense, they have forced a turnover on a league low, just 2.6% of opponents' drives. Why is that? Well, lost their top corner, White, lost Matt Milano, I think one of the top four or five linebackers in the game, and also lost their nose tackle. So their heart and soul up the middle, nose tackle, middle linebacker, best cover corner. That's part of the reason that defense has slid. And then also look at the receivers. After Stephon Diggs, who's really stepping up? I don't see it here. So never had much of a running game here. It forced Josh Allen, put more on his shoulders here. And here's the clincher. I love Sean Payton as a road underdog. Nine and four against the spread. This is where he does his best work. He's taken a team that gave up 70 points on defense and on offense was nowhere last year. In fact, they weren't nowhere. They were way behind everyone. They were that bad at Denver. So he is slowly under the radar. No one's talking about it. Done an incredible job here. He's out to prove it on Monday night football here. I'm taking the seven points. We're going to go all the way up on a Monday. Level three lock.”
22-24 — Denver beat Buffalo 24-22 on Monday Night Football, a 2-point margin that lets Denver's +7 cover easily (ESPN Week 10 scoreboard).
“We're going to go with Tom, no nickname, Aspinall minus the 115 here against Sergei, the Russian, no nickname, Pavlovich.”
Tom Aspinall knocked out Sergei Pavlovich in round 1 (1:09) to win the interim heavyweight title at UFC 295, so his moneyline pick won (Wikipedia, citing UFC 295 official results).
“So I'm going to lay the 11 points here. I think Georgia pulls away late, 34-17.”
52-17 — Georgia beat Ole Miss 52-17, a 35-point margin that easily covers Georgia's -11 (ESPN team schedule).
“Indiana Pacers win this game straight up here over the Milwaukee Bucks.”
126-124 — Indiana beat Milwaukee 126-124, winning outright as the Pacers moneyline pick required (ESPN scoreboard).
“Sometimes you've got to lay it if you want to play it. Blowout special. Louisville big tonight over the Cavs. And they've got an opportunity to make some noise. They win out. They're playing in the ACC championship, right? I mean, that's something to look forward to right there. Louisville, man, coming in at number 11 in the rankings right now, having a hell of a season. So excited to see what they continue to do. Just got to go out there and handle their business. And this one, I believe they'll handle their business. Again, the FanDuel.com line on this was a lot of points. Louisville minus 20 and a half versus Virginia.”
31-24 — Louisville beat Virginia 31-24, a 7-point margin that falls well short of Louisville's -20.5 (ESPN Week 11 scoreboard).
“I think the Raging Cajuns win the game here, 31-25, but I think 10.5, 11 points may be a little too much.”
31-34 — Southern Miss beat Louisiana 34-31 in overtime, so the Ragin' Cajuns moneyline pick lost (ESPN team schedule).
“Sometimes you got to lay it if you want to play it here. Blowout special, Ohio Bobcats big over the Troy Trojans tonight in college basketball. There you go. Blowout special number one, college hoop action. Again, Ohio going up against Troy. That's the Bobcats going up against Troy right there. Blowout special number one, college hoop action. FanDuel.com line on that one. Ohio University minus eight versus Troy.”
88-70 — Ohio beat Troy 88-70 in the MAC-SBC Challenge, an 18-point margin that covers Ohio's -8 (ESPN scoreboard).
“here. Let's lay the small spot here. Let's look for blowout special number two. Boston Celtics over the Philadelphia 76ers tonight in the association plays. That's going to be a really good game. Looking forward to that one. Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers. Two powerhouses in the east. Of course, Milwaukee's out there as well, but really want to pay attention to what Boston and Philadelphia have going on, especially the Sixers post-James Harden. What are they going to do now that they don't have the beard? But there you go. Blowout special number two. FanDuel.com line on that one again. The Celtics minus one and a half versus Philadelphia.”
106-103 — The 76ers beat the Celtics 106-103, a 3-point Boston loss that means Boston's -1.5 did not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“Yep, we're going to go with a second straight level three lock. Seattle, that's right, the Seahawks. Minus six. Blowout, blowout, blowout over the Washington Commanders.”
29-26 — Seattle beat Washington 29-26, a 3-point win that falls short of Seattle's -6 spread (ESPN Week 10 scoreboard).
“We're going to take the North Dakota fighting Hawks here. I think this is way, way too many points, plus 20 and a half here. We're going to go with a hidden gem as they keep it close against the Iowa Hawkeyes.”
110-68 — Iowa beat North Dakota 110-68, a 42-point margin that blew through North Dakota's +20.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Auburn Tigers here, plus a small spot here. I think they get the win over a very maybe or a little bit overrated Baylor team. Yeah, you know, the fact that I haven't got a lot of buzz about the Baylor team and obviously a program that I covered for a very long time and a lot of buddies that still cover the program haven't reached out and said, hey, watch out for Baylor. They're going to be that squad this year. Kind of lets me know all I need to know about this year's squad. And like you mentioned, all the players and the power that they have as far as scoring power that they had that they lost. Again, they're ranked 20th right now. Fando.com line on that one again. 20th ranked Baylor minus one and a half versus Auburn.”
88-82 — Baylor beat Auburn 88-82 in Sioux Falls, a 6-point Baylor win that means Auburn's +1.5 did not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“We're going to go with a lock. And I rarely do this in college football, but I'm going to buy it down. I'm going to buy the line down. from minus seven to minus six and a half. Instead of minus 110, you got to pay minus 130. Just don't want to take a chance. They win the game, let's say 30 to 23. So we're going to bite down to six and a half points here. We're going to go all the way up on a Tuesday. Surprisingly, we're going to go to the Ohio Bobcats here, minus the six and a half here, buying it down over the Buffalo Bills.”
20-10 — Ohio beat Buffalo 20-10, a 10-point margin that covers Ohio's -6.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“L.A. Lakers here plus the one point against the Miami Heat on Monday night.”
MIA 108, LAL 107 — Heat beat Lakers 108-107; Lakers +1 margin was exactly -1, a push (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go the Oregon Ducks here, minus a small spot, low-out special. And the game is in Las Vegas over the Georgia Bulldogs. Boom, there you go. Yeah, a lot of hoop action going on in Las Vegas. Got the Hall of Fame series going on. So women's basketball is getting underway in Vegas. Men's hoops is going on in Vegas. It's a good time to have a good time right now in Las Vegas. But there's the blowout special as college basketball gets underway. Oregon minus 5.5 versus Georgia.”
Oregon 82, Georgia 71 — Oregon opened the season by beating Georgia 82-71 in Las Vegas; Oregon -5.5 margin was +11, covers (ESPN box score).
“Kansas State outright 35-28.”
KSU 33, TEX 30 (OT) — Kansas State beat Texas 33-30 in overtime at Austin; Kansas State moneyline wins outright (ESPN box score) — corrects the stored score, which had the teams' final numbers reversed.
“So let's go with Armin, Superman, Petrosian, Moneyline, minus 115 over Rodolfo, the black belt hunter, the era UFC on Saturday.”
The Vieira-Petrosyan bout was scrapped from UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis (Sao Paulo, Nov 4 2023) after Petrosyan became ill backstage; it never took place, so the moneyline is void.
“So we're going to go with the Pittsburgh, Tennessee first half line under 18 and a half total points.”
Titans led Steelers 13-10 at halftime (23 combined points), over the 18.5 first-half total; Steelers won the game 20-16 (ESPN box score). (Titans 13, Steelers 10 at halftime)
“South Alabama Jaguars here over the Troy Trojans here. Take the four and a half.”
TROY 28, USA 10 — Troy beat South Alabama 28-10; South Alabama +4.5 margin was -18, doesn't cover (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go the Arizona Diamondbacks money line plus 102.”
TEX 5, ARI 0 — Rangers shut out Diamondbacks 5-0 in World Series Game 5 to clinch the title; Arizona moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to take Oklahoma City, lay the three and a half points. It's going to be my blowout special.”
NO 110, OKC 106 — Pelicans beat Thunder 110-106; OKC -3.5 margin was -4, doesn't cover (ESPN box score).
“Let's go with a level two lock for Wednesday. Get over the hump. Dallas Stars money line of minus 130 over the Calgary Flames.”
DAL 4, CGY 3 — Dallas Stars beat Calgary Flames 4-3; Stars moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go under here, under the total points, under 46 total points.”
CMU 37, NIU 31 — Central Michigan beat Northern Illinois 37-31 (68 combined points), over the 46 total (ESPN game recap).
“I'm going to go with The Orlando Magic here, plus the seven points, wrong team favored over the L.A. Clippers.”
LAC 118, ORL 102 — Clippers beat Magic 118-102; Magic +7 margin was -16, doesn't cover (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Knicks minus 3 versus Cleveland. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so these two teams I expect to finish probably fifth to eighth in their conference. They'll make the playoffs. If they get lucky, they win the first round. Probably not. And almost no change. You talk about two teams that basically went with status quo and they're good. Problem is Milwaukee and Boston got so much better They just head and shoulders above everyone else So two teams will match up And last year the Knicks won three of the four games here I talk about a bench. I love the bench here. Quickly coming off the bench. You had Grimes, Desenzo, Hartenstein, Mitchell Robinson, Josh Hart. Sometimes they start him. Sometimes he comes off the bench. They started slow. You know, the 29th in the league in field goal percentage. just shooting 40%. That will move up here. Last year, they were fourth in the league in three-pointers, and I think that's going to be kind of their theme here. Play defense, shoot the three here. Cleveland, you know, kind of a slow start here. Got a bunch of guys banged up here. You know, Donovan Mitchell's great, but unless he usually has big games, I think they're in trouble here. So with all the injuries they've got, they've got like three or four guys that may not play tonight. Ricky Rubio he's away from the team here Allen he's got an ankle injury Garland hamstring Jerome and Mitchell ankle and hamstring issues here nice spot there's a reason why the Knicks here are favored on the road so if it looks too good to be true you know taking Cleveland at home getting points yeah don't fall for the you know the banana in the tailpipe here we're going to go the New York Knicks minus the small spot here against the Cleveland Cavaliers level two lock.”
NY 109, CLE 91 — Knicks beat Cavaliers 109-91; Knicks -3 margin was +18, covers easily (ESPN box score).
“rolling with the indiana pacers minus three for chicago”
CHI 112, IND 105 — Bulls beat Pacers 112-105 at Chicago; Pacers -3 margin was -7, doesn't cover (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the Las Vegas Raiders. Keep it close. Don't be surprised. They might even win this game outright. Boom. There it is right there. Yeah, and Josh Jacobs, you mentioned it, man. hasn't gone over 100 yards in 10 straight games. He's got to do it. He's got to get going. That offensive line's got to get cooking, and that's the key to success for that Raiders team is to have a strong. That line that they're going to talk about, you know, 10 straight games, it's like when the quarterback is throwing like 130, 150 passes without an interception. Right. Nine out of ten times, they throw the interception there. So I expect Mr. Jacobs to have a big game tonight. There it is right there. And, yeah, that's the curse right there. That's the announcer's curse. When all of a sudden you praise somebody or say something that they've been doing great, all of a sudden they do it wrong or they throw a pick or they miss a free throw. It never, ever fails. There you go. WTF, wrong team favorite. FanDuel.com line on this Monday night football action. Detroit minus 7.5 versus the Raiders.”
DET 26, LV 14 — Lions beat Raiders 26-14 on MNF; Raiders +7.5 margin was -12, doesn't cover (ESPN box score).
“Give me the team total on the Texas Rangers over four and a half runs, minus 105”
TEX 3, ARI 1 — Rangers scored 3 runs in a 3-1 World Series Game 3 win over Arizona, under their 4.5 team-total line (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the Miami Heat plus eight and a half.”
BOS 119-MIA 111 — Celtics beat the Heat 119-111 at home; Miami lost by 8, covering the +8.5 spread (ESPN team schedule).
“I think FAU is an easy call here. We're going to go with a blowout special tonight. College football FAU. FAU get the done blowout special here over Charlotte. Big time in college football. There it is right there. Ring it up. Get some money. It's all good. FAU and Charlotte, it's not the sexiest game on the docket, but it's the money that you can make, and you can make that money tonight. Little college football action. FAU minus three versus Charlotte.”
CLT 16-FAU 38 — Florida Atlantic beat Charlotte 38-16 on the road, winning by 22 to cover FAU -3 (ESPN team schedule).
“fanduel.com line on this one the 49ers minus two and a half versus the bangles break this one down for us lee so it looks like sam donald is probably going to start this game and i don think he that much of a downgrade here Brock Purdy needs pretty much his entire cast to look good here And when they have everyone, they look fine on offense. They'll still be missing. It looks like probably Debo Samuel, but they're going to be playing with their backs against the wall. They've lost two straight games here and they've looked flat in both games. You know, except for George Kittle. He's one of these guys that plays hard all the time. But the Cincinnati team, off rest, off of a bye, have not fared well. Kind of tells you what the coaching staff is all about. 0-6 as an underdog coming off of a bye here. They're going cross country. This is the third matchup of the week here where prior Super Bowl combatants have squared off. As we know, the Niners beat the Bengals in the two Super Bowls where they played. And now Cincinnati is going to travel to the West Coast here. And I just don't think you can throw the ball, you know, 65%, 70% of the time. I don't love the Bengals' ground attack. I just don't think they're explosive here. I think Mixon is one of these guys that gets two to five yards, but not going to break the big one anymore. So I think in the offseason, don't be surprised if they let him go. He's beaten up his offensive line, not giving him enough chance to be successful here. And the 49ers, even though they lost the last two games, They sold 13-5 against the spread the last 18 games. They've won 10 of the last 11 against the spread at home. It is a really good home field advantage here. So whether it's Sam Darnold, whether it's Purdy here, I think the defense is going to set the tone here. I like San Francisco. Lay the small spot, 26-16 over Cincinnati.”
SF 17-CIN 31 — Bengals beat the 49ers 31-17; San Francisco lost by 14, missing the -2.5 cover (ESPN).
“This is a hidden gem under 42.5 points on Saturday”
Auburn beat Mississippi State 27-13, 40 combined points, under the 42.5 total (ESPN team schedule). (Auburn 27, Mississippi State 13 (40 total))
“Blow out special. L.A. Lakers here. Easy, easy win tonight over the Phoenix Suns.”
LAL 100-PHX 95 — Lakers beat the Suns 100-95 on the road; Los Angeles moneyline covers (ESPN team schedule).
“we're going to go with the Georgia Southern Eagles here and Clay Helton at home as a pick-em level two lock.”
GASO 44-GAST 27 — Georgia Southern beat Georgia State 44-27 at home, winning by 17 to cover the pick'em line (ESPN team schedule).
“Roam team favored, New York Knicks plus the three-and-a-half here against the Boston Celtics on Wednesday night.”
NY 104-BOS 108 — Celtics beat the Knicks 108-104 on the road; New York lost by 4, missing the +3.5 cover (ESPN team schedule).
“I think they dominate 35-21 here blowout special Jacksonville State over FIU”
FIU 16-JVST 41 — Jacksonville State beat FIU 41-16 on the road; Gamecocks moneyline covers (ESPN team schedule).
“So I think you've got to lay it here. I think we're going to go with a level one lock on Wednesday. Dallas Mavericks over the San Antonio Spurs. There it is right there. Level one lock, the Mavericks over the Spurs. Again, the FanDuel.com line on this one. Dallas minus three and a half versus San Antonio.”
SA 119-DAL 126 — Mavericks beat the Spurs 126-119 on the road, winning by 7 and covering Dallas -3.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“Lowout special, Nashville Predators money line, minus 118 over the Vancouver Canucks.”
NSH 2-VAN 3 — Predators lost 3-2 to the Canucks at home; Nashville moneyline busts (ESPN team schedule).
“How about Louisiana Tech versus New Mexico State? La Tech comes in at 3-5. New Mexico State 5-3. FanDuel.com line on this one. Louisiana Tech minus 2.5 versus New Mexico State. Break this one down for us, Lee. So it's Conference USA game here, and people think of Louisiana Tech, I think, as a better team than they really are here. New Mexico State generally one of the bottom feeders. I mean, they weren't even at a conference last year, but they're 5-3. They win one of the next two games, the two most minimal games. they're going to a bowl game here they took down UTEP last week and they did it on the road I like how they came out of halftime and I mean just drove right down the field here so very very impressive usually they can't throw the football at all I mean the forward pass is horrendous they have trouble usually getting a good quarterback but what have they done this year they have found a quarterback. Diego Papa, this kid can run. He can throw. He is a leader. I mean, they usually throw for like 120 130 yards per game But this year passing offense over 237 yards per game while they're 16th in rushing. That's right, 16th in the nation rushing, 203 yards per game. They're usually like bottom five in the country in offense. This year, they hit 62nd, 29.8 points per game here. Also, good defense, 46th in scoring defense, just aligned 21.1 points per game. On the other hand, Louisiana Tech can't decide on the quarterback. I mean, they're just rotating between two guys, and it's just not working out. Hank Bachmeier is one of them. Hank was a guy that started at Boise State, led him to that huge upset when he was a true freshman against Florida State on the road. Since then, it has been an absolute disaster for him. Injuries, moving around. He is a game-type manager. He cannot push the ball down the field. They have one threat here, Smoke Harris. Caught 59 passes for over 600 yards, but just three scores here. They do a lot of bubble screens with him. But teams have caught on here. I think this is a great situational play here. We're going to go with, believe it or not, New Mexico State on the road here. Wrong team favorite over Louisiana Tech.”
24-27 — New Mexico State beat Louisiana Tech outright 27-24, easily covering the Aggies +2.5 (ESPN).
“Western Kentucky plus five and a half knocks off undefeated Liberty.”
WKU 29-LIB 42 — Liberty beat Western Kentucky 42-29 on the road; the Hilltoppers lost by 13, well outside the +5.5 spread (ESPN team schedule).
“take the under four and a half total run scored uh in the first five innings minus 125 in the philadelphia arizona game tonight”
3-2 — This was NLCS Game 7 (Oct 24, 2023, not Game 7 'tonight' on the 23rd as described but the only Phillies-Diamondbacks game on that date/series slot): Arizona led 3-2 through 5 innings on the ESPN box score, 5 combined runs, over the 4.5 total.
“we're going to go over 68.5 receiving yards here for Brandon Yaiu, who is very under the radar, very talented here, minus 115.”
MIN 22-SF 17 — Brandon Aiyuk finished with 5 receptions for 57 yards on 6 targets in the Vikings' 22-17 win over the 49ers, under his 68.5 receiving-yard prop (ESPN box score). (Brandon Aiyuk: 5 REC, 57 YDS)
“Minnesota Vikings plus the seven versus the San Francisco 49ers.”
MIN 22-SF 17 — Vikings beat the 49ers 22-17 on Monday Night Football, winning outright and covering Minnesota +7 (ESPN).
“UCF blowout special, Oklahoma 56, UCF Knights 26.”
31-29 — Oklahoma beat UCF 31-29 to survive the Knights' upset bid and remain undefeated (ESPN).
“Kamzah Shemaev here. Inside the distance here, minus 115 over Kamara.”
Khamzat Chimaev beat Kamaru Usman by majority decision at UFC 294, going the full three-round distance (29-27, 29-27, 28-28); the fight did not end inside the distance.
“Low-scoring game, but Indianapolis comes out on top here. I think they get the job done 21-17. We're going to go the Indianapolis Colts over the Cleveland Browns. Let's go all the way up. Level 3 lock on a Friday.”
39-38 — Browns beat Colts 39-38 on Kareem Hunt's late touchdown; Indianapolis moneyline busts (ESPN).
“We're going with Dylan Gabriel of the Oklahoma Sooners plus 800 to win the Heisman Trophy.”
LSU's Jayden Daniels won the 2023 Heisman Trophy, not Oklahoma's Dillon Gabriel (Wikipedia: List of Heisman Trophy winners).
“I got Tennessee winning this game here. 27-24 over Alabama.”
ALA 34, TENN 20 — Alabama rallied to beat Tennessee 34-20; Tennessee moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I like Atlanta here. We're going to go on Thursday with a level two lock. Atlanta Falcons over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. I just thought you were about to go all the way up, Lee. You gave me a good tease right there. I thought you were going all the way up, but a level two lock. It's getting there. It's getting close there. Tampa Bay minus two and a half versus ATL.”
ATL 16, TB 13 — Falcons beat Buccaneers 16-13 on a late field goal; Atlanta won outright, so +2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take the Miami Dolphins plus 1,000. That's 10 to 1. You can wager 10 bucks to win 100 or 100 to win 1,000. Dolphins plus 1,000 to win the Super Bowl.”
KC 26, MIA 7 — The Chiefs eliminated the Dolphins 26-7 in the AFC Wild Card round; Miami never reached, let alone won, the Super Bowl (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Sam Houston State minus 5.5 versus FIU. Lee a team that has not won a game yet as a favorite Break this one down for me All right So I went to the FIU game against UTEP last week So I got in the two games that I going to break down and predict got to see them both live and saw some things that to me mean a lot Sometimes I'll go to a game and I watch dates. It doesn't mean much. FIU had no idea what to expect with a UTEP quarterback. He was a four-string quarterback. I think he played mop-up time. and only had a couple passes, less than 10 passes attempted the entire season, the kid was like Darryl LaMonica. He was a mad bomber. He was firing away. Literally, more than half of his passes were bombs, and he throws a nice bomb. So FIU had no idea what this kid was about. Their scouting really didn't amount to much. They were up 21-0, and then they showed a little bit of fight but really couldn't get back into the game, and I think UTEP played their best game. Team Houston State has showed absolutely nothing this year. So, in fact, their quarterback has been their leading rusher the last couple weeks here. I think FIU here coming off that disappointing 27-14 loss to UTEP last Wednesday against the four-string quarterback, Cade McConnell, is going to be ready to go here. I think FIU's been competitive here. So, I think they've got weapons on offense, a really good running game here. Sam Houston State, this is only their second home game. They've already given up on the season. 0-6, FIU has a legitimate chance to get to a bowl game. Wrong team favorite. FIU plus the points here, probably not even going to need them against Sam Houston State.”
FIU 33, SHSU 27 (2OT) — FIU beat Sam Houston 33-27 in double overtime, winning outright and covering the +5.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take New Mexico State on the road, minus three, against UTEP here.”
NMSU 28, UTEP 7 — New Mexico State beat UTEP 28-7 on the road; the 21-point margin easily covers -3 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going with Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies, over one-and-a-half total bases, plus 130.”
PHI 5, ARI 3 — Bryce Harper went 2-for-3 with a solo home run (5 total bases) in Phillies-Diamondbacks NLCS Game 1; over 1.5 total bases covers (ESPN box score). (2-3, HR, 5 TB)
“Calgary Flames money line minus 125 over the Washington Capitals”
WSH 3, CGY 2 — Capitals beat the Flames 3-2 in a shootout on a Matthew Phillips goal against his former team; Calgary moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go over 50 and a half points with the Chargers and the Cowboys.”
DAL 20, LAC 17 — Cowboys beat Chargers 20-17 in a Monday Night Football comeback; combined 37 points falls short of the 50.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Houston wins the game outright here, 20-16 here.”
HOU 20, NO 13 — Texans beat Saints 20-13 behind two Stroud TD passes; Houston moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Wisconsin 34-10 over the Hawkeyes.”
IOWA 15, WIS 6 — Iowa beat Wisconsin 15-6; Wisconsin moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Florida State, 45-21 over Syracuse.”
FSU 41, SYR 3 — Florida State blew out Syracuse 41-3; FSU moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Kansas City 30-13 over Denver tonight.”
KC 19, DEN 8 — Chiefs beat Broncos 19-8 on Thursday Night Football; Kansas City moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Utah State outright 35-31 over Fresno State.”
FRES 37, USU 32 — Fresno State beat Utah State 37-32 in overtime; Utah State moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the two and a half points here. Let's go all the way up. Level three lock. West Virginia on a Thursday here over the University of Houston. Nothing can stop me. We're all the way up. That's what that is right there. Lee just went with a level three lock all the way up. West Virginia minus two and a half versus Houston.”
HOU 41, WVU 39 — Houston beat West Virginia 41-39 on a walk-off touchdown pass; WVU lost outright, so -2.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with Jordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros to record an RBI plus 120.”
Yordan Alvarez went 1-for-4 with 0 RBI in the Astros' 3-2 ALDS Game 4 win over the Twins; the RBI prop fails (ESPN box score). (Yordan Alvarez 1-4, 0 RBI)
“We're going to go the Winnipeg Jets here. Money line, plus 110 here over the Calgary Flames.”
5-3 — Flames beat Jets 5-3 in Calgary's season opener; Winnipeg moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“FIU 16-10 in a barn burner over UTEP.”
14-27 — UTEP beat FIU 27-14; FIU moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“We're going with Josh Jacobs over 72 rushing yards.”
Josh Jacobs rushed for 69 yards in the Raiders' 17-13 win over the Packers; Jacobs over 72 rushing yards fails (ESPN box score). (Josh Jacobs 69 rushing yards)
“LA Dodgers money line minus 162 over the Arizona Diamondbacks.”
2-4 — Arizona beat Los Angeles 4-2 in NLDS Game 2; Dodgers moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go over 45.5 total points in this Monday night game.”
13-17 — Raiders beat Packers 17-13, a combined 30 points; over 45.5 fails (ESPN box score).
“Blowout special between the edges. Georgia, 34-13.”
51-13 — Georgia beat Kentucky 51-13 at home; Georgia moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Johnny Munoz Jr. here, level two lock. Level two lock right there. And I'm telling you, man, when you come in with the name the Mongolian murderer, you've got to be a bad, bad dude. And you just sent him on his way. packing. You told him he's going to have to take his show on the road. Johnny Munoz Jr. with the flex on the Mongolian murderer right there. Level 2 lock UFC action right there. Like that. Again, FanDuel.com line on that one. It's minus 115.”
Aoriqileng defeated Johnny Munoz Jr. by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night on Oct 7, 2023; Munoz Jr. moneyline loses (UFC.com event result).
“i'm gonna go with a level three lock all the way up pittsburgh steelers plus the four and a half they went out right over baltimore all the way up level three lock here”
17-10 — Steelers beat Ravens 17-10 at home, a margin of 7; Steelers +4.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I like the Jets here, big here, 28-13.”
31-21 — Jets beat Broncos 31-21 in Denver; Jets moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“That's how we roll Ohio State, Maryland, Maryland to cover. And that's all that really matters there in that one. But, yeah, two undefeated teams, so definitely pay attention to it. FanDuel.com line again. Ohio State minus 20 versus Maryland.”
37-17 — Ohio State beat Maryland 37-17, a margin of exactly 20; Maryland +20 pushes (ESPN box score).
“we're rolling with Liberty, minus 20 versus Sam Houston State.”
21-16 — Liberty beat Sam Houston 21-16, a margin of only 5; Liberty -20 fails to cover (ESPN box score).
“This is my hidden gem. Texas Tech plus one and a half points over Baylor on Saturday night.”
39-14 — Texas Tech beat Baylor 39-14 on the road; Red Raiders +1.5 covers easily (ESPN box score).
“in this play we're going over 7.5 minus 105 in the Milwaukee-Arizona game tonight.”
Arizona swept Milwaukee 2-0 in the NL Wild Card Series (won Game 1 6-3 and Game 2 5-2, both at Milwaukee on Oct 3-4); there was no Game 3, so this total never had a game to apply to (ESPN Diamondbacks postseason schedule).
“We're going to go with over two and a half games. that means it has to go to three games here in the Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona, Diamondbacks, NL wildcard series here, minus 106, hidden gem.”
Diamondbacks swept the Brewers 2-0 in the NL Wild Card Series, winning Game 2 5-2 on 2023-10-04, so only 2 games were played, under the 2.5 line (ESPN box score/recap).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Victor Hugo Silva, minus 142 versus Eduardo Matias Torres, plus 112 is a take-back lead. Break this one down for us. So the guy that I'm going to back here, Victor Hugo Silva, nicknamed Striker, a lot of experience. 27 fights, and I talk about this quite often. Fighters that have fought at a higher weight class, if they can make weight as long as they do it comfortably they are usually bigger once they weigh in they load up and put a bunch of carbs in their body and silva has fought a year ago and 170 pound weight class Are you kidding me So 35 pounds higher Now probably didn lose it all at once Looks like he fought a little while ago at 145. But this is a guy that he can do it all here. And I like the fact that he comes forward. So the contender series, they want to see finishes here. He is a guy that can do it different ways, KO, and a bunch of fights. He's kicked the other guy so bad that the other guy had to stop. Heel hook. He's got submissions on his background here. Arm triangle chokes. He really does it all. So I like the fact, like I said, he comes forward here. If it goes to the ground, he is the much better fighter there. And then fought better class of fighters here. So that's important also in that experience. The guy that he's going against, I think, is decent. You know, most other fights, I might even take this guy, but just feel that Eduardo Matias Torres, nicknamed Cyberg, comes from Chile, fought a lower level fighter. He backs up most of the time. And remember, sometimes look at basics. We talked about last week, like the fighter that threw straight punches. When you throw straight punches, better chance of landing, accuracy, and also power. And Cyberg backs up. It's harder to knock a guy out or knock him down when you're going backwards. He threw a punch here. So I think that experience, I think the fighter we're backing here, 30 years old, fought more fighters, better fighters, coming down in class. I saw him on the scale they weighed in yesterday. Looked fine as long as he's able to go. I think we're going to ride him here. So we're going to go with Victor Hugo Silva, nicknamed Striker, with a 23-4 record. To get the win here, blowout special in the Contender Series tonight in the UFC.”
Victor Hugo Silva submitted Eduardo Matias Torres via kneebar at 2:16 of Round 2 in DWCS season 7, week 9 (Oct 3, 2023), so the Silva moneyline cashed.
“We're going to go with the Miami Marlins. First five innings, Moneyline, plus 124.”
Phillies led Marlins 3-0 through 5 innings and won 4-1 in NL Wild Card Game 1 on 2023-10-03, so the Marlins first-5-innings moneyline busted (ESPN box score linescore). (F5: PHI 3, MIA 0)
“Take the Twins to win the World Series. Bet a little. win a whole lot. Minnesota Twins to win the World Series plus $1,800.”
The Houston Astros beat the Minnesota Twins 3-1 in the 2023 ALDS (Game 4 final 3-2 on Oct 11, 2023), eliminating the Twins from World Series contention (Wikipedia, 2023 ALDS).
“Matt Breida, over 45 and a half rushing yards tonight in the giant Seattle game.”
SEA 24, NYG 3 — Matt Breida ran for 30 yards on 14 carries in the Giants' 24-3 loss at Seattle on 2023-10-02, short of the 45.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Matt Breida: 30 rushing yards)
“So we going to go with over one and a half touchdowns Passes here for Geno Smith, minus 120.”
SEA 24, NYG 3 — Geno Smith threw 1 passing touchdown (13/20, 110 yards) in Seattle's 24-3 win over the Giants on 2023-10-02, under the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (Geno Smith: 1 passing TD)
“I'm laying the 12 here. And, Jim, Iowa Hawkeyes big, 38-7 over Michigan State.”
IOWA 26, MSU 16 — Iowa beat Michigan State 26-16 on 2023-09-30, a 10-point margin that falls short of the -12 spread, so the Iowa spread busted (ESPN team schedule/results).
“This line should be 8.5, 9 points here. 14.5 points. Are you kidding me here? Alabama's not that good this year. Wrong team favorite. Alabama struggles to a 30-23 win here. I'm taking the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the plus two touchdowns here.”
ALA 40, MSST 17 — Alabama beat Mississippi State 40-17 on 2023-09-30, a 23-point margin well beyond Mississippi State's +14.5, so the Mississippi State spread busted (ESPN scoreboard).
“Lay the three points here. Level three lock all the way up. The New Orleans Saints 24-14 over Tampa Bay.”
TB 26, NO 9 — Buccaneers beat Saints 26-9 on 2023-10-01, so the Saints -3 spread busted outright (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with Tulane here. Hidden gem here. I think they win this game 45-10 over UAB.”
TULN 35, UAB 23 — Tulane beat UAB 35-23 on 2023-09-30, so the Tulane moneyline cashed (ESPN team schedule/results).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Marlins money line. minus 136 versus the Mets with the take back being plus 116. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Miami Marlins got a huge boost from the Chicago Cubs losing last night and Tuesday night against the Braves. Well, they split that doubleheader yesterday against the Mets. They're now essentially tied for the last wild card spot in the NL, and they also have the tiebreaker. So if they end up in a tie if it was to end today with the Cubs they would be going to the playoffs So I think Miami going to actually pull away with it here Chicago just made too many unforced errors against Atlanta and I think they're on the downfall. Not only is this a must game for Miami, I think they had the momentum and the energy boost from last night to do it. Miami is basically getting their ace in this matchup. Jesus Lozardo, finally healthy here, has a .373 ERA. those aren't true ace numbers but he has been unhittable during big games this year when they count on him they tell him listen we need a win it's a losing streak we need you to break it he doesn't he was dominant against Atlanta stronger against LA Tampa and San Diego in a few of his last starts his two poor starts in the last six were against the Milwaukee Brewers here who hit left-handed pitching. And I just think that he's getting a Mets lineup here that can't hit anyone. Newark's problem has been they keep throwing David Peterson on the mound to start baseball games. He's been awful this year, running up a 537 ERA and losing each of the last four starts against some poor offenses in Seattle, Minnesota, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia. Even looking back at last night's game, Miami should have run away with the nightcap here. last couple innings in the game, but some really questionable umpiring calls. Kept that one close here. I expect another strong outing from the bullpen, and for Miami to take two of three against the New York Mets here. We're going to go with a blowout special. Miami Marlins here over the New York Mets.”
NYM 1, MIA 0 — Mets were awarded a 1-0 win over the Marlins on 2023-09-28 in a rain-suspended game (9th inning wiped out), so the Marlins moneyline busted (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Kansas City minus nine versus New York. Break this one down for us, Lee. You know, maybe if Travis Kelsey here, a local got married to Taylor Swift here and left the Chiefs, would the Jets have any chance here to stay, I think, within single digits here for this game here? Sam Darnold probably looks like not so bad a choice for the Jets right now I just think it anybody here but Zach Wilson So Jets also offensive line has been absolutely horrendous So you have a bad offensive line. You have a bad quarterback. You are in trouble here. The Chiefs, they're going to get their points. They've got Kelsey back here at 100%. I also like what I'm seeing from Isaiah Pacheco, merging as a quality running back in this offense here. One of the overlooked stories here is the defense for Kansas City, giving up just 13.3 points per game. And two or three opponents here, the Lions and the Jags, have some weapons here. Chris Jones, he might be inching closer to being right there with T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett as the most dominant pass rushers in the AFC here. And Jets have only been able to score three offensive touchdowns in three games. Kansas City offense is starting to put it together here. We're going to go all the way up. Yep. When you least expect it, going all the way up with the Kansas City Chiefs here. Level three lock over the New York Jets on Sunday night. I think they win this game here 35-10.”
KC 23, NYJ 20 — Chiefs beat Jets 23-20 on 2023-10-01, so the Chiefs moneyline cashed (ESPN box score).
“Wrong team favorite, Pittsburgh Pirates money line, plus 106 here over the Philadelphia Phillies.”
PHI 7, PIT 6 — Phillies beat Pirates 7-6 on 2023-09-27 (Bryce Harper HR in the 7th), so the Pirates moneyline busted (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with a blowout special. Baltimore Orioles minus the one and a half runs, minus 118 over Washington.”
BAL 5, WSH 1 — Orioles beat Nationals 5-1 on 2023-09-27, a 4-run margin that clears the -1.5 run line (ESPN box score).
“I like Tulsa here, 31-20. And I think you want to play it right now here because the line's probably going to go up. And we're going to go again with another level two lock.”
TLSA 48, TEM 26 — Tulsa beat Temple 48-26 on 2023-09-28, so the Tulsa moneyline cashed (ESPN team schedule/results).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Rays, money line, minus 134 versus Boston, with the take back being plus 114. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, the Boston Red Sox have been eliminated from postseason contention for quite a while now, and they're starting to play like it. 2-8 in the last 10 games, just 7-15 in the month of September. They have a minus 27 run differential in this month alone, and the pitching staff has given up over 5.2 runs per game in that stretch. Tanner Hoke, tonight's starter, is not going to be the one to turn that trend around either. He has a 492 ERA with just a 21.6K rate, and his hard hit rate of 43.6% is bottom 20%. among all Major League Baseball pitchers. His other problem tonight is that he's facing a raised lineup that is just 2.5 games back of Baltimore in the division race here and has plenty to play for. So I just think that this is a situation here where if you look at Tampa's pitcher, Zach Elfin, starts for Tampa. He's been a top-five pitcher in the AL this season. He has a .344 ERA with more than a strikeout per earnings pitched. He has now given up three earned runs or fewer in all but four of his 20 starts since the start of June. No one talks about this guy either. He is on a roll. Tampa doesn't have a legitimate number one pitcher going into the postseason. If he's not on the top of his game, I think he'll put in a solid six to seven innings of work tonight. Always guts it out here. some nights you know it's one pitch one night the other but he's a battler and I'm going to take the raise here money line over the Boston Red Sox I think it's going to be a blowout special Tampa Bay Rays money line here over the Boston Red Sox”
TB 9, BOS 7 — Rays beat Red Sox 9-7 on 2023-09-26, so the Rays moneyline cashed (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the southpaw. Danny, left hand to God Barlow here, minus the 104 here. It's going to be my level two lock.”
Danny Barlow TKO'd Raheam Forrest via punches at 1:19 of Round 1 in DWCS season 7, week 8 (Sept 26, 2023), so the Barlow moneyline cashed.
“We're going to go with the Chicago Cubs. First five innings, money line, plus 106.”
Cubs led Braves 5-0 through 5 complete innings on 2023-09-26 (Atlanta rallied late to win 7-6 in the full game), so the Cubs first-5-innings moneyline cashed (ESPN box score linescore). (F5: CHC 5, ATL 0)
“14.5 points in a road contest. This is Cincinnati's first Big 12 game here that they've ever been involved in here. Sooners on the road, only one winning spread record the last six years as a road favorite. In the Big 12, they escaped 34-30. The wrong team is favored. Cincinnati Bearcats on Saturday afternoon.”
CIN 6, OU 20 — Oklahoma beat Cincinnati 20-6 on Sept 23, 2023; a 14-point loss still covers Cincinnati's +14.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Ole Miss here outright. Wrong team favored. Ole Miss 31-27 over Alabama.”
ALA 24, MISS 10 — Alabama beat Ole Miss 24-10 outright on Sept 23, 2023; Ole Miss moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I like the Packers at home here, 27-20. Boom, 20. We're going to go. How about let's do this. Let's go all the way up level three lock.”
GB 18, NO 17 — Packers beat Saints 18-17 on Sept 24, 2023 behind Jordan Love's first career start at Lambeau; Green Bay moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to say Coastal wins the game, something like 38-35, but I'm thinking the seven points here in Georgia State. Wouldn't surprise me if they win the game outright. Oh, there it is right there. Nice WTF, little wrong team, favorite action. Coastal Carolina expected to win the game, but minus seven and a half.”
Georgia State 30, Coastal Carolina 17 — Georgia State beat Coastal Carolina 30-17 outright on Sept 21, 2023, easily covering the +7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Blowout special on Saturday. Texas A&M Aggies, 35-20 over Auburn.”
Texas A&M 27, Auburn 10 — Texas A&M beat Auburn 27-10 outright on Sept 23, 2023; moneyline pick cashes (ESPN box score).
“I think san francisco still wins the game here uh but i think san francisco is the wrong side here we gonna go with a level two lock on thursday we're going with the g-men here plus the 10 and a half points”
SF 30, NYG 12 — 49ers beat Giants 30-12 to extend their win streak to 13; a -18 margin fails to cover the Giants' +10.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So I think James Madison here, minus the six points. This line could end up going over seven. So we're going to hit it now. We think James Madison goes into Logan, Utah, and gets an easy win here.”
JMU 45, Utah State 38 — James Madison beat Utah State 45-38 on Sept 23, 2023, a 7-point margin that covers the -6 spread (ESPN box score).
“Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline minus 108”
MIL 8, STL 2 — Brewers beat Cardinals 8-2 behind a Josh Donaldson three-run homer; Milwaukee Brewers moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the over eight runs, minus 110, in the L.A. Dodgers-Detroit Tigers game.”
LAD 2, DET 4 — Tigers beat Dodgers 4-2; combined 6 runs busts the over 8 total (ESPN box score).
“I think the wrong team is favored. Let's go with the New York Yankees here, plus 105 against the Toronto Blue Jays.”
NYY 1, TOR 7 — Blue Jays beat Yankees 7-1 behind George Springer's leadoff homer; New York Yankees moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Igor Da Silva, Severino, minus 210 versus Jonata Silva. Lee, break this one down for us. So you would think that maybe you take a guy here who's a little bit older, and Jonata Silva's 26. Igor Da Silva is only 20, but I think he's fought the better competition here. And here's something you don't see too often. Jonata Silva has weighed in his last couple fights at 119 pounds. So if you can't even weigh 125, you're not cutting weight. Probably a difference of about 10 to 12 pounds here as far as weight. So that means that he's not cutting weight at all. And Igor Da Silva is probably about 142 to 145 when he starts cutting weight. Much bigger fighter here. Both of them about the same as far as on the feet and throwing strikes. But on the ground, I think Igor Da Silva is much better here. He's much, I think, better versed here at defending himself against kicks. And I think that that experience in fighting better fighters is going to be the difference here. A little more tools in the toolbox here. So we're going to take Igor Da Silva tonight. He's, like I said, about a two-to-one favorite here.”
Igor Severino defeated Jhonata Silva via TKO (punches) at 2:37 of round 2 at Dana White's Contender Series season 7, week 7 (Sept 19, 2023); moneyline favorite cashes.
“FanDuel line on this one We looking at the total runs between the Astros and the Orioles Over nine runs minus 106 Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so on the wrong team favorite, the first game we discussed in baseball today, we talked about teams being in must-win games. But neither Baltimore or Houston really need this one as badly as most other teams do right now. Baltimore locked up their postseason berth and will likely clinch the AL East. and Houston is sitting comfortably ahead of struggling Seattle and Texas. I thought Baltimore might start resting some starters the last two weeks of the season to be fresh for the playoffs, but they're still starting Kyle Gibson, who almost certainly will not be in the postseason roster, I guess because they want to see if they can't find a replacement for him heading into October. Gibson is still struggling badly, gave up just one run to the Cardinals in his last start, But in his last six other starts before that, he has a 732 ERA with a 319 batting average against in his last 36 innings pitched. Deuce is going to go with Hunter Brown, too. Brown was an electric prospect coming out of the minors for the Astros, and his career started off really well. But fallen off the cliff since that time, going 4-4 with a 617 ERA since the start of August, over 35 innings pitched. Gibson has been consistently bad, whereas Brown is more prone to his blow-up starts here or there. He just shut out the Oakland Athletics. Well, who hasn't? But his few other starts against decent offenses have been horrendous, giving up six and a start to the Padres, five to the Yankees, six to Seattle, and then five to the Orioles lineup just a month ago. Both of these teams are continuing to play their offensive starters until maybe the last week of the regular season. The last week is really, really dicey. You've got to be careful because you don't know who's going to play. But I think most of this week we're going to see the starters play for even the teams that are leading the division. And I think they know they need to keep the bats rolling here to be ready for October. This line should be 9.5 or 10 in my opinion. I'm going to take the over nine runs here in the Houston Astros-Baltimore Orioles game.”
HOU 5, BAL 9 — Orioles beat Astros 9-5 on two Austin Hays home runs; combined 14 runs clears the over 9 total (ESPN box score).
“I'm going under 38 and a half total points here. Hidden gem. Boom. There you go right there. That is a Monday night football game. Number two, this evening Steelers and Browns kicks off at 5 p.m. Eastern time. And that are 8 p.m. Excuse me. 8 p.m. Eastern time. That one kicks off. But yeah, under 38 and a half total points is how we're rolling right there. Totals Steelers Brown Monday night football game.”
PIT 26, CLE 22 — Steelers beat Browns 26-22 on TJ Watt's scoop-and-score; combined 48 points busts the under 38.5 (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Braves minus 116 versus the Phillies with a take back being minus 102. Lee, break this one down for us. I don know if any other team has swept especially in this division the Braves I think it the first time they been swept which is crazy So they just dominated this year 96 record They hit the ball This lineup I don know if we ever seen a lineup from 1 They don't have a weakness. I mean, they've got guys in the bottom of the order hitting 15, 20 home runs, driving in 67 runs, and they steal bases. So this may be one of the best lineups we've seen the last 40 to 50 years here. Philadelphia, yeah, it's a nice season. They're sitting at that number one wild card spot here, 81-68, actually being good in August 24-18. But I think the public is going to back that wheel. They're just going to think that this is the guy that's going to go into Atlanta and he's just going to dominate here. But I think he's due for a bad performance. I think Atlanta rested a lot of guys over the weekend, especially on Sunday, didn't have to pitch anyone significant here in the bullpen. And Kyle Wright, I think they want to get him right. I mean, he's right now. He's been wrong. He's been sitting in that fifth spot here. Just has not been his year going so far. So this is an important start for him if he wants to pitch in postseason. He's 0-2 with a 748 ERA. So he's just going to have to, you know, mix up his pitches here. And I think he's going to get it done. I think they're going to be motivated after that sweep. Great teams are like that. He's only played in six games, but I think this is the game where everything gets turned around. I think the crowd's going to be into it. They're going to, you know, maybe put a little pressure on the team saying it's time to, you know, you can't get swept by the Marlins. And, I mean, the game on Sunday, it was 16 to nothing. It wasn't even close. So, I think Ronald Acuna gets it started here. I mean, it's a guy that has 37 home runs here. I think he's got some, like, 60-something stolen bases. Sean Murphy, Austin Riley, Marcel Arzuna. They thought he would be one of the weaknesses here, but he's not here. I'm going with a blowout special. I think the Atlanta Braves come just soaring back tonight here. Atlanta Braves here. Blowout special over the Philadelphia Phillies at home.”
ATL 1, PHI 7 — Phillies beat Braves 7-1 behind five home runs including Kyle Schwarber's; Atlanta Braves moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So let's take the three points here. Let's go with a level two lock to start out Monday. There it is right there. Level two lock. Lee, you held that level going a little bit long. I didn't know where you were going. Thought you were going to go all the way up on a Monday. I was like, okay, I see you, but you got there. Level two lock. I'm all right with that. Saints minus three versus the Carolina Panthers.”
NO 20, CAR 17 — Saints beat Panthers 20-17, a 3-point margin that lands exactly on the -3 spread for a push (ESPN box score).
“I think the wrong team is favored. Give me the Steelers here, 27-24 over Cleveland.”
PIT 26, CLE 22 — Steelers beat the Browns 26-22; Pittsburgh moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“Blowout special, North Carolina, 34-18 over Minnesota.”
UNC 31, MINN 13 — North Carolina beat Minnesota 31-13; UNC moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“I think they pull it out 28-24, but give me the Raiders here plus the nine points. I think it's way too much.”
BUF 38, LV 10 — Bills routed the Raiders 38-10; Las Vegas lost by 28, well outside the +9 spread (ESPN).
“I'm not going to put my whole leg in. I'm not even going to put my whole foot in. Maybe one or two toes. Georgia, 42-21, South Carolina covers. Boom, there it is right there. South Carolina covers again. 27 points is a whole lot of points, and we know how it is, man.”
UGA 24, SC 14 — No. 1 Georgia beat South Carolina 24-14; SC lost by only 10, comfortably covering the +27 spread (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Chargers minus three versus the Titans. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, two tough losses. I mean, Tennessee had a chance. If they didn't have that blown whistle, I mean, the car, what they ruled an incompletion right away, should have been a fumble. They win that game even with Ryan Tannehill throwing three interceptions. So Chargers in maybe the most exciting game of the weekend. Lose to a Miami team that I had heard was preparing for three or four weeks in advance for that game. But let's look at where both teams are. L.A. can, we know, pass the football. But they were also incredible running the football against the Dolphins. 234 rushing yards at 5.9 yards per carry clip. Ryan Taneyhill, awful. I mean, his decision-making, that offensive line, pass blocking, horrendous. DeAndre Hopkins looked better than expected. Derrick Henry looks good but all you gotta do is key on two guys forget about the tight ends the other receivers here I just think that Justin Herbert has too many weapons here I think this Chargers defense which is healthy is going to come to play here I going with a level two lock L.A. Chargers here. Lay the points, 31-20 over Tennessee.”
TEN 27, LAC 24 — Titans beat the Chargers 27-24 in OT; LA lost outright, busting the -3 spread (ESPN).
“I think Memphis tonight I think Memphis blows out a bad Navy team here Let go all the way up Level three lock. Memphis minus the 14 over Navy tonight.”
MEM 28, NAVY 24 — Memphis beat Navy 28-24, winning by only 4 points and missing the -14 spread (ESPN).
“I've got the wrong team favored. We're going to go to the Texas Rangers money line plus 105 tonight as they go for the sweep against the Toronto Blue Jays.”
TEX 10, TOR 0 — Rangers blanked the Blue Jays 10-0 to complete the sweep; Texas moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Seminoles minus 27 versus BC. Lee, break this one down for us. Yeah, so number one is weather. So he could be windy. We're almost sure it's going to be rainy. And most people look at Boston College and playing at home and they're like, oh, not a great crowd or anything. But maybe, you know, it's a little deceiving of what they're going to do. I think they're going to improve here. They held on for a 31-28 win last week here against Holy Cross. And you're like, holy what? Holy Toledo, Holy Cross? But Holy Cross was 12-0 last year. They lost Holy Cross only that was a regular season in a championship game to South Dakota State where they played them tooth and nail. They're number five this year in the FCS rankings here. So they're no easy out here. Some really tough FCS teams here. I like Boston College's quarterback, Thomas Castellanos. He started his career at UCF, dual-thread quarterback. And when you have bad weather, you know, if you have a drop-back passer, not good. Florida State also has a dual-thread quarterback. but in their two games, they did run the football, did Boston College well, versus an actually really pesky team. Northern Illinois always plays teams tough, and they did beat Boston College, but they get up for those games, and they probably one of the best teams in the MAAC and Holy Cross So FSU might be peeking ahead also to Clemson next week They have been unbelievable 8-0 against the spread their last eight road games. But the receiver position a little dinged up. And like I said, I think the weather's going to be really bad. It's going to be pouring here, maybe really windy. And, you know, hey, you just want to get out of this game. I see them winning this game like 38-17, 41-20. I just think it's going to be one of these ugly games where you look back, and you're like, okay, got out of the gate, won the game, but almost four touchdowns. They kind of helped score them by more than a touchdown each and every quarter to win this game here. That's really tough in college football, especially with the new rules here. I'm going to take the points here. I think the wrong team is favored. I like Boston College getting all those gorgeous points and possibly horrible weather on Saturday.”
FSU 31, BC 29 — Florida State beat Boston College 31-29; BC lost by only 2, comfortably covering the +27 spread (ESPN).
“Hidden gem, Jordan Walker of the St. Louis Cardinals to record over one and a half total bases plus 125.”
STL 1, BAL 0 — Jordan Walker went 0-for-2 with 2 walks (0 total bases) as the Cardinals beat the Orioles 1-0; the over 1.5 total bases prop busts (ESPN box score). (Jordan Walker 0-for-2, 2 BB, 0 TB)
“We're going to go with bet a little win a whole lot here on Cooper Rush plus 1,200”
Cooper Rush re-signed with the Cowboys in March 2023 and remained Dallas's backup QB all season; he was never traded to the Jets, so the futures bet busts (Wikipedia).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Orioles' money line, minus 198 versus the Cardinals with the take back being plus 168. And, Lee, I'm not the smartest guy in the world. I'm assuming we're playing against the Cardinals, and Adam Wainwright must be pitching. That's right. Well, I think there's a few other times we've gone against the Cardinals, but a majority have been Adam Wainwright pitching. And the Cardinals have not played in Baltimore since 2017. They have a bunch of national fans, love to follow them. But it's a Tuesday night game. Maybe they want to see Adam Wainwright ascend off, but it's velocity way, way down. Ball just not moving. He is getting hit all over the park. In fact, he's responsible for 35 runs and 10 home runs during a 32-and-a-third-in stretch here. His whip, 2.07 since July 29th. Pitching staff has been absolutely horrible. Bullpen, even worse here. Now, on the other side, what are the Cardinals going to do? They're going to bring back John Means. Remember, he ended up with an arm injury all the way back in April 2022 and brought him along slowly, but he is ready to go. Probably pitched three, four innings. I just think that with that lineup here, I just think they're just going to mash Wayne Wright here, who is, like I said, can't get out of trouble at all. The bullpen, terrible. I think you lay the wood here. blowout special Baltimore Orioles they keep streaking in the St. Louis Cardinals they keep fading here blowout special on the Baltimore Orioles at home for the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday night.”
STL 5, BAL 2 — Cardinals beat the Orioles 5-2; Baltimore's moneyline busts (ESPN).
“Sometimes you've got to lay it if you want to play it. Another blowout special. We're going to go against these bad teams while we still have a chance. Seattle Mariners, Moneyline over the LA Angels here. A second blowout special. There it is right there, the Mariners. Again, as Lee mentioned, Moneyline minus 195 versus the Angels.”
SEA 8, LAA 0 — Mariners shut out the Angels 8-0; moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“We're going to go over 248 passing yards for Josh Allen. Hidden gem. Boom, there it is right there. Hidden gem. Expect Josh Allen to go over the 248.5 total yards in this Monday night football matchup versus the Jets.”
NYJ 22, BUF 16 — Josh Allen threw for 236 yards (29/41) in the Jets' 22-16 OT win over Buffalo, missing the over 248.5 line (ESPN box score). (Josh Allen 29/41, 236 passing yards)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Brewers minus 142 versus the Miami Marlins with the take back being plus 120. Lee, break this one down for us. Yeah, good pitching matchup. The Marlins' best pitcher didn't think he'd be the ace, but he's probably their number one if they were to play a one-game playoff and they had time to set up the pitching matchups would be Jesus Lozardo. I mean, he's 25-year-old, 9-8 record, 359 ERA. And Milwaukee, certainly their number one, Brandon Woodruff, Kids 30 years old, 4-1 record, just a 230 ERA. So I thought this line was going to be like 160, 170, probably a little lower because Lizardo is starting here for the Marlins. The Marlins are still in it. You know, they're just a half game back. But what really concerns me here is they just have had trouble scoring runs. And just 4.1 runs here, 25th in the league here. They did win yesterday, but they had to really burn their bullpen. Their top four relievers ended up having to pitch yesterday, whereas even though Milwaukee won the series, their series, they got blown out against the Yankees yesterday, so they rested their top three scores. That's important when you handicap games here. Brewers much better than the Marlins. They average 4.45 runs per game, and they steal bases here, 10th in the league. So they're able to manufacture runs here, and the Marlins' bottom five stealing bases, and that's a problem here. On top of that, also look at what we have here with travel. Marlins had to play a game, get on. People think, oh, Miami to Milwaukee. It's like almost a three-and-a-half, four-hour plane trip here, and Lizardo has pitched much, much worse here, almost a full point ERA higher on the road. So he's comfortable in Miami, not comfortable on the road here. I like the way Milwaukee Manufacturers runs, plays at home here. I think this line is low here. We're going to go with a blowout special, Milwaukee Brewers, over my Miami Marlins here on Monday night.”
MIL 12, MIA 0 — Brewers shut out the Marlins 12-0; moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“fanduel.com line on this one buffalo minus two versus new york lee break this one down for us. Yeah. And last season's home split one-on-one. Bill's only scored 17 and 20 points here. So Josh Allen, I think he's going to be going for feast or famine. He's not going to be dumping it off too many times. He likes to take shots down the field here, but only 55% of the passes did he complete here. How good has Aaron Rodgers been as a home underdog? Well, Happened only eight times in 15 seasons when he played for the Packers. What was his record? A Sterling 7 against the spread in those games here It going to be crazy there 9 Jets for the first time in maybe 12 15 years they feel they have a chance to make the playoffs and really shake things up and maybe make a run there for the title. They're going to be going against a Bills defense, a Tremaine Edwards. He left for the Bears. I think that's a big hole. No Von Miller, he's out a minimum of four weeks here. And I think Buffalo's offensive line is mediocre at best. I think Quinton Williams is going to wreak havoc here. So I think the Jets' defense is great. I think their offense is much improved. Look at Dalvin Cook. Look what his absence meant in Minnesota. They lost at home to Tampa Bay, couldn't run the football. He can break some big ones here. They've got a passing game for the first time in a long, long time due to the New York Jets here. I'm going to go with a level two lock on a Monday here. Let's keep rolling. The Jets over the Buffalo Bills and what should be a great Monday night football game to start the season.”
NYJ 22, BUF 16 — Jets beat Bills 22-16 in OT, winning outright and covering the +2 spread (ESPN).
“We're going to go under 40 total points, and the UTEP and Northwestern game, hidden gem.”
Northwestern 38, UTEP 7 — Northwestern beat UTEP 38-7 (combined 45 points); the under 40 total busts (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one the Saints minus three versus Tennessee break this one down for us Lee so I know who you rooting for here I know you not rooting for Derek Carr here So I think he going to improve the Saints here But I think he going to be standing here on the sidelines and saying to himself, late second, early third quarter, I've seen this before when I was with the Raiders. They couldn't get key stops and couldn't get turnovers. So the Saints' defense, which is I don't think much different this year, they were number 32 at a it's a 32 team league and pass run rush win rate last year 29 percent 31 out of 22 in takeaways uh just 14 number 29 and third down conversion rate allowed 41.6 percent and number 24 and run defense 131 yards per game allowed what does tennessee do Well, they run the football. Their offensive linemen have trouble pass blocking, but you get five, six, seven yards on first down, a lot of short, second and three, second and twos, takes the crowd out of the game, shortens the game here, and that's what they love to do. And with Saints not getting many takeaways here, I think Tennessee wins and covers this game, and they're getting points. Are you kidding me? Wrong team favorite. Tennessee Titans beat the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.”
NO 16, TEN 15 — Saints beat Titans 16-15; Titans lost by 1, covering the +3 spread (ESPN).
“I like the Las Vegas Raiders here. I'm going to say they should be the favorite. I still can't figure out why they're the underdog. Let's end the week with a level three lock go all the way up. Man, all the way up. That's what I'm talking about. And I guarantee you Raider Nation is pretty happy when they hear that. And, you know, as a guy that covers the Raiders like a glove in Las Vegas, man, I'm still, it kind of blows my mind that the Raiders are three and a half point underdogs. I get it's in Denver, but I just don't see it. And like you said, the Raiders have dominated winning six in a row there versus the Denver Broncos. Good stuff right there. Level three lock Denver minus three and a half versus the Raiders. We're rolling with the Raiders. Of course, the three and a half points as well.”
DEN 16, LV 17 — Raiders beat Broncos 17-16 outright, easily covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN).
“And Jim, Orlando Arcea, Atlanta Braves over one and a half bases plus 135.”
Orlando Arcia went 0-for-4 with 0 total bases as the Braves beat the Cardinals 8-5; his total-base prop needed over 1.5 and loses (ESPN box score). (Arcia 0-for-4, 0 TB)
“I think it's going to be a great game, but 7.5 points at home, way too much. I think Ole Miss escapes 34-31, but I'll take the points here in the green wave.”
Ole Miss 37, Tulane 20 — Ole Miss beat Tulane 37-20; Tulane lost outright by 17, busting the +7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Green Bay's the right side. The Pack, they're still back here at 28-24.”
Chicago 20, Green Bay 38 — The Packers beat the Bears 38-20 in the season opener; Green Bay's moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with Randy Orozarena of the Tampa Bay Rays to record over one and a half total bases, plus 125.”
Randy Arozarena went 1-for-4 with a single (1 total base) as the Rays beat the Red Sox 3-1; his total-base prop needed over 1.5 and loses (ESPN box score). (Arozarena 1-for-4, 1 TB)
“So I'm going to take the Reds here, plus the one-and-a-half runs, minus 110 wrong team favorite”
Cincinnati 4, Seattle 8 — The Mariners beat the Reds 8-4; Cincinnati lost outright by 4, busting the +1.5 run line (ESPN box score).
“I think this game goes to the wire. 16.5 is too much here. Just like people think of OU. You know, OU's this team that can't be stopped, but they do lose at home occasionally. They have to play some decent teams down to the wire. I think OU wins 41-33. I'm taking the SMU Mustangs, which are headed to the ACC, another factor.”
Oklahoma 28, SMU 11 — Oklahoma beat SMU 28-11; SMU lost outright by 17, busting the +16.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with Chepe Mariscal, who fights out of the Elevation team in Denver, Colorado here. I think that this is going to be a nice, easy win for him here. And plus 172, are you kidding me? Over Jack Jenkins, bet a little, win a whole lot.”
Chepe Mariscal defeated Jack Jenkins by TKO (arm injury) in round 2 at 3:19 of UFC 293; Mariscal's moneyline wins. (Mariscal def. Jenkins via TKO (arm injury), Round 2, 3:19)
“blowout special, Baltimore Orioles money line minus 152 over the LA Angels in the outfield.”
LA Angels 4, Baltimore 5 — The Orioles beat the Angels 5-4 in 10 innings; Baltimore's moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Twins money line minus 116 versus the Guardians with the take back being minus 102. Break this one down for us, Lee. Tanner Beebe has been a great starting pitcher for the Cleveland Guardians this year, but things have started to fall off just a bit, and he's facing one of the hottest lineups in baseball. He has a .352 ERA in the last four starts, which is a bit high considering he has a .303 ERA this season. This Twins team also just got the chance to face him in his last start and did pretty well against him. Sonny Gray on the other side of the bump here really should be the AL Cy Young in the conversation because he hasn't been because he's just not flashy. He's not a Garrett Cole or an Otani. He dominated the Guardians in his career and has a well bullpen behind him after a blowout last night 20 That right You heard me correct They scored 20 runs 20 over the Cleveland Guardians They scored at least five runs in all four games this month Won three out of four. They're up six games in this division. Looks like probably a 90-95% chance they're going to win the division and they will be in the playoffs here. I'm going to take the Minnesota Twins money line over the Cleveland Guardians level one lock.”
Cleveland 3, Minnesota 8 — The Twins beat the Guardians 8-3; Minnesota's moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“We'll go with the Phillies here. Money line, minus 108. This is our first blowout special of the day over the hapless Padres.”
San Diego 7, Philadelphia 9 — The Phillies beat the Padres 9-7; Philadelphia's moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with Houston here. Moneyline, minus 108 over little brother, the Texas Rangers.”
Texas 6, Houston 13 — The Astros beat the Rangers 13-6; Houston's moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line. Clemson minus 13 versus Duke. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so this Clemson team, I just feel that they might have the pressure off them. Usually when they go into the season, there's pressure left and right. You know, they had both quarterbacks. D.J. Ugalele, he was with the team last year. They had recruited Cade Klugnick. And you just were like kind of waiting. Is it going to be week three, week five, week eight? When are they going to make the change? If it wasn't towards the end of the season when they made the change, clearly he ended up leading Oregon State yesterday to a nice win. I think he's in a better spot there, less pressure out there in the Northwest. Dave Klubnik is really good. I mean he did not lose the game against Tennessee It was the turnovers They fumbled a couple times just were not sharp on defense You know Clemson playing in Orange Bowl you think they be ready to go but it was like they were going through the motions, and Tennessee was like their Super Bowl. So just feel that this Clemson team, it's a game of matchups. Sometimes, and I was back in Duke, they return like eight starters on both sides of the ball. Normally I'm like, okay, why am I not taking Duke at home getting double digits? Well, it's about a matchup. They bring in Garrett Riley, does Clemson as their offensive coordinator. Remember a couple years ago they lost both coordinators. I think they finally found the right guy. And what can Clemson do? They can throw the football with Cade Klubnick, and that's Duke's one major weakness. They're replacing two out of three starters. Their back end is not very good here. They'll also run enough here. I just think it's going to be close for a half. And then that depth, the strength, the line play, just going to be too much here. So Duke got lucky last year. Did not have to face Clemson or Florida State. This year they've got to play both here. The dream season was last year. It ends here on opening Monday night. We're going to go with the Clemson Tigers here, minus the double digits. Blowout special number three over the Duke Blue Devils.”
Duke 28, Clemson 7 — Duke beat Clemson 28-7 in the season opener; Clemson lost outright by 21, busting the -13 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to say Georgia Tech pulls off the upset here. Wrong team favorite, Georgia Tech, 24-20 over Louisville.”
Georgia Tech 34, Louisville 39 — Louisville beat Georgia Tech 39-34 in the Aflac Kickoff Game; Georgia Tech's moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“i'm gonna say here michigan wins in blow out fashion big blue 60 east carolina 10”
Michigan 30, East Carolina 3 — Michigan beat East Carolina 30-3; Michigan's moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“leading I think to an inside win here as Bon Gamin here celebrates in front of his hometown fans Viva La France Cyril Bon Gamin Gagne here minus 125 inside the distance over Sergei Polar Bear Spivak here”
Ciryl Gane TKO'd (punches) Serghei Spivac in round 2 at 3:44 of UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac in Paris, an inside-the-distance win. (Gane def. Spivac via TKO (punches), Round 2, 3:44)
“I like Miami here, plus 290 here. I think they're going to surprise everyone and win 12, 13 games.”
The Buffalo Bills won the AFC East at 11-6 on a tiebreaker over the Dolphins, who also finished 11-6; Miami's futures bet loses (ESPN standings).
“I think Lamar Jackson's going to have a great season, but I think Cincinnati is the call here, plus 150 here.”
The Baltimore Ravens won the AFC North at 13-4; the Bengals finished 9-8 and missed the division, so Cincinnati's futures bet loses (ESPN standings).
“Easiest call here, Jacksonville minus 155. This might be over by midseason.”
The Houston Texans won the AFC South at 10-7; the Jaguars finished 9-8 in 2nd place, so Jacksonville's futures bet loses (ESPN standings).
“We're going to go the L.A. Dodgers. First five innings, money line, plus 116 over the Atlanta Braves. Boom, there it is right there. And I'll tell you”
Braves led the Dodgers 7-4 through 5 innings (Atlanta won 8-7 in the end), so the Dodgers first-5-innings moneyline loses (ESPN box score line score). (ATL 7, LAD 4 through 5)
“Blowout special, Ohio State minus 29.5 versus Indiana, and that is week one college football action. Still on the way. W”
IU 3, OSU 23 — Ohio State beat Indiana 23-3, a 20-point margin that falls short of the -29.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“This line, almost three touchdowns, way too much. Level 2 lock. Boom level 2 lock right there and I with it I am with it I know West Virginia is not the West Virginia that they once were or want to be I know they still trying to build build build but there you go Penn State, 20 and a half, minus 20 and a half versus West Virginia.”
PSU 38, WVU 15 — Penn State beat West Virginia 38-15, a 23-point margin that exceeds West Virginia's +20.5, so the underdog spread bet loses (ESPN scoreboard).
“I think Philadelphia is loaded everywhere here except for their punter. When your only weakness is your punter, I think you've got a real strong team here. I like Philadelphia, minus 115.”
The Dallas Cowboys won the NFC East in the 2023 season (12-5), not Philadelphia, so the Eagles futures bet loses (ESPN 2023 NFL standings).
“This is going to be the division I predict where in the last week of the season, you got three teams sitting here with eight wins here. And who wins it? Surprise, surprise, surprise. The Chicago Bears plus 430. I think DJ Moore, his addition. They finally have number one receiver, better offensive line. And Justin Fields, he might ”
The Detroit Lions won the NFC North in the 2023 season (12-5), not Chicago, so the Bears futures bet loses (ESPN 2023 NFL standings).
“I think New Orleans wins by default here, plus 130. Soft schedule here, and Derek Carr I think is going to be motivated. I just can't – I think Atlanta's running game is going to be great with B. John Robinson, but still have some doubts about their ”
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the NFC South in the 2023 season (9-8), not New Orleans, so the Saints futures bet loses (ESPN 2023 NFL standings).
“San Francisco all the way. Easiest call in the NFC here. Too many veterans here. As long as Brock Purdy stays healthy, easy winner here. Seattle's imp”
The San Francisco 49ers won the NFC West in the 2023 season (12-5), and clinched a first-round bye, confirming the 49ers futures bet wins (ESPN 2023 NFL standings).
“julio rodriguez of the seattle mariners to record two plus base hits plus 145 hidden gem man i'll tell you right now julio rodriguez is knocking the l”
Julio Rodriguez did not appear in the Mariners-Athletics box score for this game, so the 1.5 hits prop has no plate appearances to grade (ESPN box score).
“Kansas City Royals money line minus 145 blowout over the Pittsburgh Pirates. I think this line ends up minus 155 to 165. Get on it”
KC 3, PIT 6 — Pirates beat Royals 6-3 on Ke'Bryan Hayes' two-run 8th-inning homer; Royals moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“Week one officially, looking at Utah versus Florida. The thing about Florida is there's a hurricane coming in, if you've checked out the weather at all. So that's going to play a role in the preparation for this game. FanDuel.com line on this one. Utah minus 6.5 versus Florida. Lee, break this one down for us. Yeah, so Florida is a team, I think, in transition. I think they're going to be good next year. They have some kids coming in on the recruiting trail. But as far as what I see as far as talent on the field now, they only returned 12 starters. And on top of that, they're bringing in Graham Mertz from Wisconsin. I just was never impressed with this kid. So they got one receiver, Ricky Pearsall. I like the two running backs. I do like Etienne, Trevor Etienne, and also Montrell Johnson. But after that, I mean, the offensive line, I mean, you're kidding me? You're counting on some transfers to come in and start right away, counting on a kid that barely even played last year as a third. In fact, they're going to have four new starters on the offensive line. I think that's going to be a trouble. I think they're going to have a bunch of illegal procedures, calls here against Utah when they're playing on the road. So tough start. New quarterback, pretty much a brand new offensive line. And the one kid returning the center was no great shake on defense here. Mediocre best. They gave up almost 29 points per game, give up 4.5 yards per carry. And I do think Cam rising is going to play with him playing It is a big big difference So the line started off at like 9 It gone as low as 5 It at 6 now I think he going to play I think it's going to close this line somewhere between 7.5 and 9. So with him playing and also weather, Florida is going to travel today, this morning, to Dallas, practice in Dallas, spend the night, get back on the plane on Wednesday and travel to Salt Lake City? Are you kidding me? These kids are just way off. They'll be worrying about their families, possibly getting hit by a hurricane. Too much of a disruption here. I think Utah, much better team and home field advantage. They should have won that game big time last year. They were the better team here. They'll get that revenge. Lay the six and a half. We're starting off the week here on a Tuesday. first college football selection every single day we'll have a selection all four days level two lock there it is right there level two lock talking about utah minus six and a half”
UTAH 24, FLA 11 — Utah beat Florida 24-11 in Salt Lake City, a 13-point margin that covers Utah -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a hidden gem, Jake Rogers, to get a hit. Money line minus 120. There you go. I love the player prop bets. Really do, especially”
Jake Rogers did not play in this Tigers-Yankees game; Carson Kelly started at catcher and went 0-for-3, so the Jake Rogers hit prop has no player performance to grade (ESPN box score).
“The wrong team is favored. Cincinnati Reds money line plus 102 here over the Giants. There it is right there. Giants and the Re”
SF 4, CIN 1 — Giants beat Reds 4-1 behind Kyle Harrison's home debut; Reds moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“The Red Sox money line, minus 120 versus Houston. Break this one down for us Chris Sale has had an interesting season for the Boston Red Sox Obviously he dealt with a ton of injuries but he now has three starts under his belt in August and they were all respectable. He just faced the Houston team here in Minimae Park and came out with a win. Now gets the Astros at home, where he's been much better this year, 369 ERA at Fenway Park this year. for Christian Javier it hasn't been the same he's 4-1 away from home this year but this is why pitching win-loss records can be absolutely misleading he's a 533 road ERA over 74 innings 29 walks in that split this is far below league average in fact in his last four starts he's 2-0 but has a 559 ERA in that span as well. Boston has won 15 of the last 23 home games, and it continues to be that offense that has kept up with just about anyone in baseball so far. I know Houston is the hotter team with a much better record, but there's a reason the Red Sox are favored in this one. Don't fall for the trap here. Boston Red Sox money line over the Houston Astros”
BOS 5, HOU 13 — Astros beat Red Sox 13-5, with Jose Altuve completing his first career cycle; Red Sox moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the Chicago Cubs who are on a roll here. Moneyline minus 115 over the Pittsburgh Pirates. There it is right there. Th”
PIT 2, CHC 1 — Pirates beat Cubs 2-1 behind eight scoreless innings from Mitch Keller; Cubs moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“How about Ryan's Superman span going up against Anthony Lionheart Smith? super superman span comes in at 21 and 8 lionheart smith 36 and 18 fando.com line on this one ryan superman span minus 125 first anthony lionheart smith with the take back being plus 105 break this one down for us lee okay so this is a rematch of a fight smith won here in the first round via submission two years ago that was smith last victory though as he 0 and 2 since that fight and he looked like the shell of himself in my opinion since both outings Spann fared much better two and one since that fight and was close to a finish in his last fight before getting submitted by a top five fighter here. I see this as a bout between two fighters moving in completely different directions here. Spann, long considered a major talent, gets it done here against a fading Smith who is likely to retire, win or lose, in order to continue what I think is a really strong career as an announcer. I love hearing him talk about the fights. So he was right there on the door of being a champion, but sometimes when it doesn't happen, you go into a steep decline here. So Smith may fight with a lion heart, but that will not be the kryptonite here. We're going to go here, minus 125 for Superman span here. It's going to be a level two lock to finish the week. There it is right there, a level two lock. And the Lionheart is not the kryptonite to Superman, huh? I like that. I like that word play right there. Well done by Lee Sterling talking about Ryan Superman span and Anthony Lionheart Smith.”
Anthony Smith defeated Ryan Spann by split decision (3 rounds) at UFC Fight Night in Singapore; Spann moneyline loses (UFC.com fight result).
“Wrong team favorite here. Let's go with UTEP. They get the win at Jacksonville State. Boom, there it is right there. Shout-out to ”
JVST 17, UTEP 14 — Jacksonville State beat UTEP 17-14 in their Week 0 season opener on August 26, 2023, so the UTEP moneyline lost (Wikipedia, 2023 Jacksonville State Gamecocks football season).
“Minnesota Twins, money line, minus 130, blowout special. Boom, there you go. They need a blowout special, don't they? They need a ”
MIN 7, TEX 5 — The Minnesota Twins beat the Texas Rangers 7-5 on August 24, 2023 on a tiebreaking 8th-inning homer by Ryan Jeffers, so the Twins moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Steelers minus four versus Atlanta. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, and when you look at the last week of preseason, coaching and quarterback rotation is very important. What do we know about this Pittsburgh Steelers team? Well, they play to win. And they've done it so far this preseason. Dominated the Bills. I mean, they looked really good in that game here. So I think they're going to sit Kenny Pickett might see a little bit of Mitchell Trubisky, but you're going to see a lot of Mason Rudolph. I mean, this guy has a whole lot of regular season experience. In fact, 16 touchdowns, 11 interceptions in his career here. So I just think that he's going to be the guy that's going to look really good here. Maybe see a little bit of Tanner Morgan in his second year. He's looked really good also in practices. Jalen Warren, running back when he's played. I think he deserves some consideration to get more, you know, catches and runs out of the backfield. He's a guy that's really impressed me. Atlanta, I'm just not so sold here on their backups. Taylor Heineke has not picked up the system. Logan Woodside 28 year old guy just has not done the job for them We know they gonna sit up He John Robinson Robinson He not going to play in this game Not going to see any Drake London I just don see any playmakers here I mean, you've got guys like Hodge and Hart, their backup receivers. They're questionable here. Even Matt Collins won't play in this game. So this is a situation here where you've got coaching staff, Pittsburgh that plays to win here. Arthur Smith only four and four here. So Mike Tomlin, I mean, 13-3, last 16 preseason games here. I'm going to lay the four and a half here. I think this is a trap here. Everyone's going to take Atlanta at home, home underdog. Pittsburgh wins easy here. Level two lock. Boom, there it is. Level two lock right there. The Steelers over the Atlanta Falcons.”
ATL 0, PIT 24 — The Pittsburgh Steelers shut out the Atlanta Falcons 24-0 in preseason on August 24, 2023; the 24-point margin easily covered the -4.5 line (ESPN box score).
“we're going to go with Bo Bouchette here of the Toronto Blue Jays to record over one and a half bases, minus 125. And Jim. I like it. I really do. I l”
BAL 7, TOR 0 — Bo Bichette went 1-for-4 with a single (1 total base) as the Orioles beat the Blue Jays 7-0 on August 23, 2023, falling short of the 1.5 total bases line (ESPN box score). (Bo Bichette: 1-for-4, 1 total base)
“Up next, we bet a little, win a lot, and we talk about Jonathan Taylor, currently of the Indianapolis Colts running back. The Colts have allowed him to go out, him and his representation, to seek a trade. But where will he end up? FanDuel.com line on this one. Miami Dolphins plus 250, Chicago plus 400, and the Baltimore Ravens plus 700. Lee, how you feeling this one? Where's JT ending up? Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins number. Oh, sorry. Their owner spends money. And he likes star players. I think the head coach, Daniel, loves to have elite players. If they get hurt, you could be sunk. But I think he's got a bunch of pretty good running backs. He feels this is it. I mean, they're taking a run this year. They're going to be way over the cap next year. But I think they can front load some of the money this year and pay him what he wants here. It's crazy here. You've got star running backs, you know, moving around before they're even close to finish. I mean, this guy two years ago led the league in rushing, but was by far two years ago the best running back. Last year, I mean, a little nicked up, but, I mean, they were just an absolute disaster. They've never had a passing game in Indianapolis. Can you imagine? How do you defend? You put Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, and you've got Hill and Waddle, and Tua stays healthy. They might average 35 40 points a game here I going with the Dolphins here Plus 250 bet a little but a lot Who do you got You know that funny Miami makes a lot of sense And as soon as I heard about the trade the potential of a trade I thought of Miami because I thought Dalvin Cook was going to end up there. He ends up in New York with the Jets. And so I thought, okay, Miami's a great landing spot. I'm not sure exactly what a team is going to be willing to trade for Jonathan Taylor since he's a running back. But Miami would be very, very intriguing.”
Jonathan Taylor was not traded; he and the Colts reached a standoff, he was placed on the PUP list on August 29, 2023, and he ultimately re-signed a three-year extension with Indianapolis in October 2023, so the trade-to-Miami pick lost (Wikipedia, Jonathan Taylor).
“Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, first five innings under five and a half runs, plus 100. Level one lock. Boom, level one lock right there. A hell of a play, you ”
The Atlanta Braves led the New York Mets 1-0 through 5 innings (Charlie Morton: 7.0 IP, 11 K, 0 ER, final score Braves 7, Mets 0) on August 23, 2023; the first-5-innings total of 1 run came in well under 5.5 (ESPN box score). (ATL 1, NYM 0 through 5 innings)
“Pittsburgh Pirates, money line, minus 138, blowout special. Tell you right now, man, the Cardinals have been so disappointed. Again, if there's one th”
PIT 6, STL 3 — The Pittsburgh Pirates beat the St. Louis Cardinals 6-3 on August 22, 2023, capped by Andrew McCutchen's two-run homer in a five-run fifth, so the Pirates moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“blowout special number two over eight and a half runs minus 102 here new york yankees washington nationals there it is right there when you have two bad teams like this y”
NYY 1, WSH 2 — The Washington Nationals beat the New York Yankees 2-1 on August 22, 2023; the combined 3 runs fell well short of the 8.5 total, so the over lost (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go under 58 and a half points in the game on Saturday here. Get on it now before people realize how juice this total is here sometimes totals go up this is going to be one of the rare totals i believe that goes down and closes 55 or 56 go under 58 and a half total ”
LT 22, FIU 17 — Louisiana Tech beat FIU 22-17 in their Week 0 season opener on August 26, 2023; the combined 39 points came in under the 58.5 total (Wikipedia, 2023 FIU Panthers football season).
“We're going to go with the Cincinnati Reds here. Wrong team favorite here over the Angels. There you go. The Reds over the Angels. And, again, as I mentioned, man, it feels like the Angels are really at the end of the rope right now. They're probably looking back at that trade deadline decision to hold on to Shohei Otani and thinking, yep, didn't really work out the way that we expected it to. So there's that. But the Angels and the Reds, they square up this evening. Again, FanDuel.com line on that one. The Angels minus 138 versus the Reds with the take back being plus 118.”
Reds 9, Angels 4 (Game 1); Reds 7, Angels 3 (Game 2) — The scheduled August 21, 2023 Angels-Reds game was postponed for wet grounds and made up as an August 23 doubleheader; Cincinnati swept both games (9-4 and 7-3), so the Reds moneyline won (ESPN box scores).
“I'm going to take the Washington Commanders plus the one-and-a-half, and you only have to lay 105 to win 100 here. Wrong team favorite number two. Wow, there you go. That would be a big shock. Like, w”
WSH 29, BAL 28 — The Washington Commanders beat the Baltimore Ravens 29-28 in preseason on August 21, 2023, ending Baltimore's 24-game preseason win streak; Washington's outright win covers the +1.5 line (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a level one lock to start the week off. Texas Rangers money line minus 164 over the Diamondbacks. There you go. The Texas Rangers doing what the Texas Ranger”
ARI 4, TEX 3 — The Arizona Diamondbacks beat the Texas Rangers 4-3 in 11 innings on August 21, 2023 on Tommy Pham's walk-off double, so the Rangers moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Petroski minus 225 versus Gerald GM3 Mershot with the take-back being plus 185. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, 32-year-old Philly boy, Andre Petroski here, enters the octagon with a pretty impressive 4-0 record. in the UFC, nine and one overall. But how impressive is it really? Let's examine closely. The UFC records of his first three opponents, all finishes were 0-2, 0-3, and 2-2, none of which will get you a future UFC paycheck. Now his last opponent has a 3 UFC record but now fights at 170 pounds which means he has zero wins against current USC middleweights His opponent 35 GM3 Gerard Murchard is not so impressive as far as a record is concerned, 10-8 in the UFC, 36-15 overall. But now let's take a closer look here at his record. He's fought six to seven ranked fighters, including several current and future title contenders. When Murchard is not fighting and mostly losing to some of the very best guys in the division, he has a 100% finishing rate, one KO and nine submissions, which is actually fifth all-time and not in the division but in UFC history. The last time Petrovsky fought a UFC fighter with real ability was when the current 170-pounder, Brian Puber, battle ninja choked him out on the Ultimate Fighter just over two years ago. Petrovsky, in my opinion, is not at the level of the guys that GM3 has fought or defeated. And every time GM3 gets counted out, someone gets put to sleep or is doing a tap dance, add Petrosky to the list, I'm out. Just like that, huh? Just rolling out just like that. I had to drop the mic there. Sorry. I'm not mad at you. Hey, sometimes you got to drop the mic. So how are we rolling right here? Petrosky minus 225. Gerald, GM3, Mershot, take back plus 25. You're rolling with the GM3? GM3. Yep. Plus almost two to one. Wrong. Wrong. Not team favorite. Wrong fighter favorite. I like it. I like it. There you go. Wrong fighter favorite to start us off on this Friday.”
Andre Petroski defeated Gerald Meerschaert by split decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC 292 on August 19, 2023, so the Meerschaert moneyline lost (Wikipedia UFC 292 results).
“Blowout special. Toronto Blue Jays money line minus 162 over the Reds. Boom. There it is right there. This is going to be some good action. ”
CIN 1, TOR 0 — The Cincinnati Reds beat the Toronto Blue Jays 1-0 on a walk-off homer on August 18, 2023, so the Blue Jays moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“Buffalo Bills minus one point here. Level three lock. Boom. There it is. All the way up on a Friday. Lee said it best, m”
PIT 27, BUF 15 — The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Buffalo Bills 27-15 in preseason on August 19, 2023; Buffalo lost outright by 12, missing the -1 line it needed to cover as favorite (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to take the over six-and-a-half strikeouts for Lance Lynn, tonight. Hidden gem. Man, I'll tell you what, Lance Lynn is definitely a hidden gem. Seems like he's been around for the longest, first of all. It's just the, you know, it's like the guy that just keeps on going. Every time you look up, boom, there's Lance Lynn still right there, still pitching. So there you go. Nice little hidden gem action. Lance Lynn of the Dodgers over six and a half strikeouts, minus 105 versus the”
LAD 1, MIL 0 — Lance Lynn (Dodgers) went 7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 3 K, 1 BB in a 1-0 Dodgers win over the Brewers on August 17, 2023; his 3 strikeouts fell short of the 6.5 line (ESPN box score). (Lance Lynn: 7.0 IP, 3 K)
“we're going to go with the Miami Dolphins plus the three and a half points where it is right now and probably stay for at least the next day wrong team favored tomorrow night over the Houston Texas bo”
HOU 3, MIA 28 — Miami Dolphins beat the Houston Texans 28-3 in preseason on August 19, 2023; Miami's 25-point margin easily covered the +3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“36-year-old young Punisher Munoz, a 165 underdog, comes in at 10-7 in the UFC and 20-7 overall. Munoz has fought five former champs and also Sean O who is fighting for the title in the main event of this card Munoz won the first round against O before being poked in the eye in the second in a fight that was judged and ended in a no contest. In Munoz's 17 UFC fights, he has never been knocked down nor finished with all losses coming by decision, including three by split decision. I see Munoz here, out-voluming here and also frustrating Vera as the not-so-young-anymore-punisher takes home the decision win here. I think it's going to go to the cards. So we're going to go with, we're not going against the young savage. It's the young punisher here, Pedro Munoz here. that's going to be our wrong fighter favorite here over Marlon Chido Vera here”
Marlon Vera defeated Pedro Munhoz by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC 292 on August 19, 2023, so the Munhoz moneyline lost (Wikipedia UFC 292 results).
“Zach Galoff here. The Oakland Athletics to record over one and a half total bases, plus 110 in Jim. I'll tell you right now, once he becomes really good, and it sounds ”
Zack Gelof went 4-for-5 with two doubles (6 total bases) as Oakland beat St. Louis 8-0; over 1.5 total bases cashes (ESPN box score). (4-for-5, 6 TB)
“We're going to go with the Philadelphia Eagles. Moneyline minus 170 over the Cleveland hapless Browns again this year. Blowout special. Boom. There it”
PHI 18, CLE 18 — Eagles and Browns tied 18-18 in a preseason game actually played August 17, 2023 (one day after the episode's stated date); Philadelphia's moneyline pushes (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a level one lock over five and a half runs, plus 108 in the first five innings. Your kind of play here, Q, Texas Rangers and L.”
Angels led Rangers 1-0 through 5 innings before winning 2-0 (Ohtani and Thaiss both homered); Texas fell far short of the over 5.5 first-5-innings total (ESPN box score). (LAA 1, TEX 0 through 5)
“The under is plus 102 on the Minnesota Vikings win total. Lee, how are you shaking out on this one? Where are you going? Okay, so if you're looking from one year to the next, there's not much change with the Minnesota Vikings. I mean, they lost Dalvin Cook. I don't get it, though. When you watch games, and I watch games closely, when he was not in the game, this was not the same team. They just didn't have the offensive explosion. Teams knew they didn't have to respect the run. Alexander Madison, nice backup. I just don't think he's a good enough starter here. Kirk Cousins, everything went right for him last year. Justin Jefferson, I had him on both my fantasy teams. I won one of my leagues. He's great. But how much better can he be? I don't think much better. Jordan Addison might be a nice addition, but I don't know if he's ready yet. The defense, I think that they're going to get exposed some here. And remember, also, every other year, last year, they played nine home games. This year, only eight home games in every single team in their division is much improved. Look at the Detroit Lions on the upswing. I think the Green Bay Packers are underrated. Jordan Love looked good. If you watched him, I think the green light's starting to come on. I think without Aaron Rodgers there, stunning his growth. I think that team has a chip on their shoulders. And the Chicago Bears, are you kidding me? Now with D.J. Moore, I think that offense is going to be scary good. Just a little hint, Justin Fields. He's a guy last year running rushing yards in fantasy was great. I think he's going to throw and run this year. Like I said, this might come down to the last week of the year. and you might have three teams right there with eight wins looking for to try to win the division but i just think that the minnesota vikings might be that odd team out here we're gonna go under eight and a half wins here minus 102 we're gonna go with a level two lock oh there it is right there under eight and a half total wins for the minnesota vikings who i could easily see them taking a step back from what they did la”
Minnesota finished the 2023 NFL regular season 7-10, under the 8.5 season win-total line (ESPN standings). (7-10 record)
“Wrong team favored. Kansas City Royals, first five innings, money line, plus 114. Again, for a second straight night over Seattle. You know, hey, if i”
Mariners led Royals 7-5 through 5 innings (four home runs in the 4th) before winning 10-8 in 10 innings; Kansas City's first-5-innings moneyline busts (ESPN box score). (SEA 7, KC 5 through 5)
“Hidden gem here, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, over nine and a half runs plus 100 takes to the bank you know it's so funny we have mult”
NYM 4, PIT 7 — Pirates beat Mets 7-4; combined 11 runs clears the over 9.5 total (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the Kansas City Royals. First five innings, money line plus 120. Wrong team favored. There you go. When a team is 38-81, you wa”
Royals led Mariners 4-0 through 5 innings (3-0-0-0-1 vs all zeros) before winning 7-6; Kansas City's first-5-innings moneyline cashes (ESPN box score). (KC 4, SEA 0 through 5)
“I'm going to go with a blowout special. Houston Astros money line, minus 154 over Miami Marlins. There it is right there. Again, like I said before, d”
MIA 5, HOU 1 — Marlins beat Astros 5-1; Houston's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“the win total for the trojans nine and a half the over is minus 170 and the under is plus 140 lee break this one down for us where are we going all right so if you are a high school senior or you're thinking about transferring what are one of the few amazing destinations you'd like to play? USC for me. USC for you too? Oh yeah, there's no doubt about it. No doubt about it. I mean, the weather, this team is going to be really good. They were good last year, but they couldn't stop anyone. And then, you know, going to a great school and also, you know, the scenery around isn't too bad either. So they're going to have the favorite Caleb Williams. We all know that coming back. And they returned three of the top four receivers from last year. And then they got in some guys to supplement him. I think they're going to even have a better running game. Now, Travis Dye had 884 yards and nine touchdowns. They got Marshawn Lloyd from South Carolina. I think he's going to be even better than Travis Dye was. So I think they're going to have a better running game. Lost a couple guys on the offensive line, but what do they do? Well, they pick off the best kid from Washington State, Jarrett Kingston. Pick off a guy that started maybe by far the best offensive lineman at Wyoming. Another kid at Florida, the best offensive lineman on defense, where they had a ton of problems. They couldn't stop a small cold here. They bring in good defensive linemen from Texas A&M, another one from Georgia, a kid that started for two years straight at Arizona, and then a linebacker bring in by far the best linebacker at Oklahoma State, and also a kid at Arizona, started for three years straight. And on top of that, a kicker, a punter from Arizona State who averaged 46 yards per punt here. I think this team is loaded. Listen to the start of the season schedule for them. San Jose State, they'll win by 40 or 50. Nevada, the same. Stanford, 30 to 40. At Arizona State, win. At Colorado, win. at Arizona win. It's not until October 14th, their seventh game of the year where they'll be challenged against Notre Dame, but they have more talent here. So they going to want to keep the train rolling there They play Utah at home Utah not the same At Cal at home against Washington at Oregon and UCLA they get to face without DTR, and we saw what he's doing already in the NFL. They had big problems with him the last couple years. They gave up 45 points last year, 62 the year before. Without him, I think they're going to fare better. Nine and a half. This total should be probably 10 or 10 and a half here. We're going to go over the nine and a half wins here for the usc trojans let's start off monday haven't done this in a long time level three lock man there it is you're right we haven't done that go all the way up on a monday”
USC finished the 2023 season 8-5 (7-5 regular season, beat Louisville 42-28 in the Holiday Bowl), under the 9.5 season win-total line (Wikipedia). (8-5 record)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Maniac minus 265 against Young Savage. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, JP, I don't think someone gave him this nickname. I think he came up with it himself. So he's most known, believe it or not, for his girlfriend, who his girlfriend was in the UFC. And his girlfriend was stolen. Stolen. You know what? Actually, I think he was married. He might have been married, and his girlfriend was stolen by another UFC fighter. So the guy was humiliated. I believe that he came up with his own nickname. It's that bad. They want to promote fighters from other countries. He comes from South Africa. But here's the problem. Since he came up 0-3 in all three fights, we're not even competitive. Cody Durden's a good fighter. Cody Durden knocked a guy down once in his entire career with a punch It was J Byes knocked him out So not only has he not been competitive even the one time it went to a decision it was 30-27 on all three cards against Montel Jackson. I mean, you talk about, you know, sometimes you're picking for a fighter. This is all about, or 90%, picking against a fighter. He's coming off an ACL surgery. He was cut, cut by the UFC. He's being brought back on short notice. I think he feels he'll never get another chance, so he's jumping at it. Normally, most of his fights at flyweight, 125. He's fighting up here another 10 pounds. He's fighting a guy that's a bantamweight. I think he's in big-time trouble here. He's got no power here, coming off an injury, and he's fighting a guy, Marcus McGee. People say, oh, well, Marcus McGee's kind of young, 7-1. but he's been around the fight game all the way back since 2012. So here's a guy who has actually a lot of experience here. He's already won in the UFC against a pretty decent opponent, Journey Newsome here. So the line is at 265. Some people will say, oh, I can't bet 265. If you lose, it's like losing almost three fights. I suggest you put it in a parlay. If you have two fights at minus 260, it returns over $91. So it's almost like returning, you know, getting rate wagering 100 to win 100 here. So I think he's a shoe in here. So I just think that he is going down JP buys. So we're going to go here with I think it's going to be a blowout special. Marcus, the maniac McGee over young savage. he's going to be savagely beaten here jp buys goes down put m”
Marcus McGhee knocked out JP Buys in round 1 at 2:19 at UFC Fight Night (Luque vs. Dos Anjos), August 12, 2023, earning Performance of the Night (UFC.com).
“Blowout special number two, Pittsburgh. Here Buccos, money line, minus 108 for the Cincinnati Reds. And the slide for the Reds continues. The slide fo”
PIT 2, CIN 9 — Reds beat Pirates 9-2; Pittsburgh's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Giants minus two and a half versus the Lions. Lee, is this a trap? What's going on here? Because the Lions are all I've heard about, about how great they're going to be. What is going on here? Yeah, it started last year with hard knocks. Well, they didn't start the season well, but I believe they went something like seven of the last eight games. Look great. They're fun to watch, too. Jared Goff certainly turned the corner last year, has a lot of help on offense. I love that they drafted Gibbs from Alabama. I think he's going to be a superstar, but I don't think he's going to play much more than David Montgomery. The problem here lies for this team is they felt they didn't have a backup. They just brought in Teddy Bridgewater. If you watch Teddy Bridgewater play for Miami last year, I think he's washed up. So nowhere near where he was even a couple years after the comeback from that gruesome knee surgery So who else are they going to play Bridgewater not going to play He hadn been there long enough Hendon Hooker really good college player Totally different system here Nate Sudfield, he was going to be the backup. They did not like the way he looked. He was inaccurate, didn't seem to have command of the offense during preseason, maybe in the fourth quarter. Adrian Martinez, he looked awful last year, the end of the season for Kansas State. So this is a team that's had some guys at the receiving position get bumped around and they might sit out today. And who are they playing here? They're going to be playing a G-men team that turned the corner last year, did not win their playoff game. But I think that they've got a couple of young kids here that are going to show they can do the job. I like their third string quarterback, Tommy DeVito. I think he'll play at least a half here. Tyrod Taylor starts. He's always one of the better backups here. Good defense here. This is a solid team that just does not beat themselves at all here. And just think the Lions are going to try to run the football here, not play their top two backs. We're not going to see a whole lot here. This is a trap here. They're begging you to play the team, getting all the notice. We're going to go with the New York Giants here, lay the points here, level two lock to end the week on friday the g-man right there level two lock the giants and the detroit lions and yeah man i look”
DET 21, NYG 16 — Lions beat Giants 21-16 in preseason; New York lost outright, missing the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Hidden gem, Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals to record over one and a half bases minus 130. I've never had a problem betting on Bobby Witt Jr.”
Bobby Witt Jr. went 1-for-4 with a double (2 total bases) as the Red Sox beat the Royals 2-0; over 1.5 total bases cashes (ESPN box score). (1-for-4, 2 TB)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The monster, Blackshear, minus 235 versus the Lone Wolf. And the take back is plus 180 if you dare bet on a Lone Wolf. Lee, break this one down for you. Yep. in the second fight of the night, UFC fight night this Saturday, between these two guys, 135-pound bantamweight division. Now, 28-year-old Blackshear, won 1-1 in the UFC, and 13-5-1 overall. He earned a draw on short notice in his UFC debut and lost in a closer than the score would indicate fight against undefeated super prospect Farid Bakshirat before finishing his last opponent in the second round, I thought, in dominant fashion. Blackshear has improved with every outing. He'll be fighting on his 29th birthday. A little more added motivation there. His opponent, Jose Lone Wolf Johnson here, making his UFC debut on short notice, and short notice guys have not fared well of late. He is 15-7 as far as his record, But a closer look at his career shows that Johnson has been defeated by the only two fighters currently in the UFC. Though Johnson is a tall, rangy striker for the Bantamweight division, he has been taken down, get this, 17 times in his two appearances on the Dana White's Contender Series. Hide the women and children. The monster will be unleashed here in this one. I just don't see Johnson being able to deal with Blackshear's grappling, pace, cardio, and overall skill, especially on short notice. I see either a very dominant decision or maybe even a finish here. We're going to go with a blowout special. The monster, Damon Blackshear, over Lone Wolf, Jose Johnson on Saturday night. I like it, man. Let's just go”
Da'Mon Blackshear submitted Jose Johnson via first-round submission at 3:47 at UFC Fight Night (Luque vs. Dos Anjos), August 12, 2023, earning Performance of the Night (UFC.com).
“I'll take the three and a half in New England here. Wrong team favorite. We're going with New England over the Houston Texans in NFL preseason action.”
NE 9, HOU 20 — Texans beat Patriots 20-9 in preseason; New England lost by 11, missing the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Over nine runs, minus 110. Phillies Nationals, bring it on down for us. Yeah, Michael Lorenzen threw a no-hitter last night in his home debut for the Philadelphia Phillies since the trade. And one of the more special moments in the 2023 season. emotional for this Phillies team, still in the playoff hunt, but I think it provides for a bit of letdown for them today. Aaron Nola on the mound has had the same issues that were affecting in the first half, and I think maybe even worse is ERA 555 since the All-Star break, and it's not as though he's striking out guys or is walking too many hitters. The problem for Nola is every time someone puts a bat on the ball, it's being hit hard. 505 slugging percentage against hitters here since the midseason classic. His season-long barrel rate against is just in the 41st percentile. And the new cutter that he introduced a few years ago and he using much more than he ever has before getting hit like crazy here So keep in mind too if you look back at Nola four since the break none of them were against a strong offense. Milwaukee, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City. I don't think he'll have much confidence here coming into this one. He's 7-8 with a 5-3, 94-year reign. His career against the Washington Nationals. Good news for him in Philadelphia is Patrick Corbin will be towing the rubber for Washington. Corbin actually started the season well, but he also has a 555 ERA since July 4th with just 23 strikeouts and nine home runs allowed over a 35 and two-thirds innings pitch. Obviously for Corbin, the big problem is right-handed hitters who have a .308 batting average, and 22 of Corbin's 24 runs allowed have been the right-handed hitters. The Phillies have a dominant right-handed lineup here against a guy like Corbin. They ranked eighth in weighted runs created and seventh in batting average over the last month against Southpaw. We may not even need to worry about the bullpens here. I think you're going to be able to turn this one cue off after the fifth or the sixth inning here. It's going to seem like July 4th here. Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals over nine runs. Level one lock. Level one lock right there. Over nine runs. As I always say, you get a run”
PHI 6, WSH 2 — Phillies beat Nationals 6-2; combined 8 runs falls short of the over 9 total (ESPN box score).
“For that reason, I'm going to go with the Kansas City Royals here, plus one and a half runs wrong team favorite against the struggling boston red sox there it is right there the wrong team favorite and uh sometimes you get a little bit of a surprise right and uh sometimes you gotta know what you're you know do a little bit of deep diving to come up with a good play for the day and there you go the red sox versus kansas city again the red sox come in 58 55 but as lee said a little bit on the struggle bus right now in kansas city they've been driving that struggle bus but for this night especially with the line the way it is Take back plus one and a half runs, minus 104.”
BOS 4, KC 3 — Red Sox beat Royals 4-3; Kansas City lost by 1 run, well inside the +1.5 spread, so the bet covers (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. We're going to roll with the first five innings in the Orioles. They got the money line, minus 125 versus the Astros with the take back, being a pick-em, or basically plus 100 lead. Break this one down for us.”
Astros led Orioles 3-2 through 5 innings (2-1-0-0-0 vs 0-0-0-2-0) en route to an 8-2 win; Baltimore's first-5-innings moneyline busts (ESPN box score). (HOU 3, BAL 2 through 5)
“We're taking the Seattle Seahawks minus the four and a half. It's that high. Usually you don't see high lines here in preseason, but I think you're going to see it here in this game here, and it's going to be a blowout. You want to get it before it r”
SEA 24, MIN 13 — Seahawks beat Vikings 24-13 in preseason; Seattle won by 11, covering the -4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a wrong team favorite. Let's keep riding the Chicago Cubs here. Plus one or two at the Mets tonight. Boom. There it is right there. Yeah.”
NYM 11, CHC 2 — The Mets routed the Cubs 11-2, so the Cubs moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the money line, minus 142 with the Miami Marlins here. Should be a great game. A lot of young players, two teams that are exciting, going to be much better down the road here. I think the Miami Marlins stay in the wild card race here. Lay the ”
CIN 5, MIA 2 — Cincinnati beat Miami 5-2 (Joey Votto homered), so the Marlins moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one, Florida State. Nine and a half wins is minus 110. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so Mike Norwell was in trouble. I mean, after the first two years, they went 3-6 and 5-7. They turned around with an incredible 10-3 record. They are recruiting extremely well. In fact, over the weekend, got another five-star to commit to them. I think they're going to be really good down the road. They had every break go their way last year. Won it seem like every close game. They got a bunch of junior college transfers, high-level guys. They're going to be good, tied in. This kid, Jaheim Bell, is going to be very good for South Carolina. Got a real good offensive lineman from Colorado. Bunch of good guys left Colorado. Great lineman here. Had 30 starts over his career. They needed to fill in a couple spots there. He even brought in a kid from Western Michigan, a kid that started for a couple years. I think it going to be an instant contributor and the best defensive back maybe in the conference coming back kid Fencewell Cypress here for Virginia But with all that I still don think Jordan travis is great here i think he good i think he a good college quarterback but like i said every close game went their way how about this they at one point faced five teams that had backup quarterbacks i don't think you're going to have that kind of luck again they've got to go on the road this year and play at Clemson. They've got to play at Pitt, at Florida, who might be coming around by then. And they open this season against LSU is looking for revenge. I think LSU is just a little more talented here. This game is going to be played in Orlando. I think LSU gets the win here. And after that, they're going to have to win 10 out of 11 games here, probably get over the total here. I don't see it here. I'm going to go with the under nine and a half wins of the Florida State Seminoles here. Level two lock to start the week. There you go right there.”
Florida State finished the 2023 regular season 13-0 (13-1 overall after the Orange Bowl loss), far over the 9.5 win-total line, so the under busts (Wikipedia: 2023 Florida State Seminoles football team). (13-1 record)
“We'll go to Miami Marlins. First five innings, money line over the Texas Strangers. There it is right there. And the Strangers haven't been the Strangers so much this season, right? They're out there. But tonight we hope they are. No doubt. There's no doubt about it, especially the first five innings, That's how we're rolling first five innings with the Rangers is minus 115. And then for the Marlins, the take back is plus 115.”
TEX 6, MIA 2 — Texas led Miami 3-2 through 5 innings (en route to a 6-2 final win), so the Marlins first-5-innings moneyline busts — not a push (ESPN box score). (TEX 3, MIA 2 through 5 innings)
“The Orioles minus 160 versus the Mets with the take back being plus 135. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, the Mets seem to have given up on that super team investment from the offseason. Obviously, they sold off all the main guys pretty much at the deadline. But they also got swept immediately after that by the Kansas City Royals. in embarrassing fashion. Sometimes after a trade-dime deadline here, you can see the chemistry in teams pick up as they're motivated by some of the moves the team makes, whether they're buying guys or selling off players who have value. But a lot of these guys just didn't fit into the locker room here, and it's clear this team right now, I believe, has nothing to play for anymore. They'll start David Peterson in this game, and this guy just doesn't have it anymore. He's 27 years old. He's already been relegated to the bullpen this year, but he's starting now because of the trades. 592 ERA and 17 appearances on the year. Just one in five record away from home for Baltimore. Dean Kremmer starts, and I think that's why the line is close to minus 180 or 185. It should be much, much higher here. Kremmer has some good peripherals in this matchup. First off, he's a fly ball pitcher, which is helpful with those Camden Yard dimensions that make home runs to anywhere other than right field difficult. Then there's the thing that he's had a ton of success here in interleague games. He has 11 interleague starts in his career, and he's 7-2 with a 3-77 ERA. Baltimore won every game of the series against Toronto in blowout fashion. So they don't have to use any high leverage arms. here the last couple days, and so they'll be rested here in the bullpen. I think they're rested and they're ready to continue that dominance here at home. We're going to go to the Baltimore Orioles money line blowout over the New York Mets.”
BAL 10, NYM 3 — Baltimore beat the Mets 10-3, moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go over 7.5 wins. It's plus money, over 7.5, plus 120 here for the Texas Tech. Red Raiders here. We're going to go with a level two lock. Level two lock right there for the Red Raiders to go over seven and a half wins right there on the 2023 seaso”
Texas Tech finished the 2023 season 7-6 (including an Independence Bowl win), under the 7.5 win-total line (Wikipedia: 2023 Texas Tech Red Raiders football team). (7-6 record)
“Alvarez of the Astros, they hit a home run plus 900 versus the Bronx Bombers. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yep, we had a good ”
NYY 4, HOU 3 — Yordan Alvarez went 1-for-3 with no home run as the Yankees beat Houston 4-3; the home-run prop misses (ESPN box score). (Alvarez: 1-for-3, 0 HR)
“L.A. Angels, money line, minus 154 over the hapless Seattle Mariners. Blowout special. I'll tell you right now, man, if they score 10 to 12 runs, I mi”
SEA 5, LAA 3 — The Los Angeles Angels lost to Seattle 5-3, so the Angels moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So we going to lay the one and a half points here on a Thursday Level two lock New York Jets over the Cleveland Browns in the NFL Hall of Fame game tonight there it is right there it just good to hear about a game right ”
CLE 21, NYJ 16 — Cleveland beat the Jets 21-16 in the 2023 Hall of Fame Game; the Jets lost outright, so -1.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Alec Boehm with the Phillies over one and a half total bases plus 100 versus Miami. Break this one down for us, Lee. So I like this guy. He is really under the radar. He ranks second among Phillies hitters in the last two weeks in slugging percentage. despite his reputation as just a contact bat. Another guy whose stat line wouldn't jump out at you without digging into his batting average 287 a little above average 10 home runs kind of mediocre pedestrian 16 strikeout rate nothing to write home about but this kid is on fire right now 409 batting average over the last seven days that includes a home run and two doubles just like his opponent Braxton Garrett Bone actually crushes his opposite field pitching here so against lefties like Garrett this year. He ranks 13th in all of baseball with a 326 batting average, ranked seventh in slugging percentage at 611. Also gone three for six in his career here against Braxton Garrett. Garrett, I mean, you look at his record, five and three, you know, decent, 408 ERA. All that looks pretty good, but I think he's in for it here. He actually has a 540 ERA at home this season, given up 12 runs allowed in the last four home starts. And most of the damage, where does it come? Right side of the plate, where you would expect the Southpaw to struggle. He's given up 276 batting average to right-handed hitters, also allowed 12 of his 15 home runs to righties. So not only is it a problem for a guy in a lineup here that brings six guys to the plate from the right side, This guy, I just think he's going to rake them here. And this Miami team, you just got to think the morale is down. They go into the ninth inning up 1-0. And the new closer gives up three runs, and they lose the game to 3-1. Alcone here, we're going to go with him over one and a half total bases here in the Phillies game against the Marlins here.”
Alec Bohm went 4-for-6 with a double (5 total bases) in the Phillies' 12-inning loss to Miami, clearing the 1.5 total-bases line (ESPN box score). (4-for-6, 1 2B, 5 TB)
“So we're going to go with the Bronx Bombers, New York Yankees. First five innings, money line, minus 135. Blowout special over the Tampa Bay Rays. There you go right there. And I'll tell you what, the”
NYY 7, TB 2 — The Yankees led Tampa Bay 5-2 through 5 innings (en route to a 7-2 final win), so the Yankees first-5-innings moneyline cashes (ESPN box score). (NYY 5, TB 2 through 5 innings)
“There's a new sheriff in town when it comes to the Green Bay Packers with Jordan Love behind center. So we're going to talk about the total wins for 2023. FanDuel.com line on this one. The Packers over 7.5 wins is minus 120. To go under the 7.5, it's minus 110. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so I think it's really important when you look at win totals. First off, you've got to look at who's in your division. And let's say you're like the Dolphins or the Jets. You've got to play every single game is a tough, tough game, and some of the games teams are even better than you. Green Bay Packers. Now, everyone is down on them, not as much maybe as the Arizona Cardinals, but let's look at this team, and outside of Kansas City, I don't see a game here that's not possibly a win here. So do I think that they're going to go 11-6 or something like that or 12-5? Absolutely not. But I don't think they're as bad as people would make them out to be. The teams in their division, I don't think are anything special. Everyone's talking about Detroit, but if they win 10 or 11 games, I mean, they'll be doing somersaults in Detroit. Minnesota, they won every close game. I think they won seven games decided by a touchdown or less. They lost maybe one of the best running backs in the league in Dalvin Cook. They got pedestrian running backs. I think their defense is very mediocre at best. and in Chicago Chicago Chicago they're at least a year or two away so this might be a division where it comes down believe it or not the last week you might have three teams tied with like eight wins and whoever wins and based on tiebreakers gets in and wins the division so might be that type type of division this year Everyone talking about love at the quarterback I just think Jordan Love is going to be better than expected I just think that with Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Rodgers is not one of these guys that's going to help out a backup quarterback. And I think with that, just doesn't have to worry about being taken out. I think it's going to help him here. He can also run the ball. Let's say things go bad. In his one start, he ran the ball five times for 23 yards. He averaged running the ball 4.7 times per game in college, so he has a little different dimension there. Christian Watson I think is going to have a breakout season. He might be a top 10, top 15 receiver. They've got maybe the best one-two punch at running back, top 10 teams at third and short and fourth and short. And I think their front four on defense is going to get a lot more pressure than last year. So also like Luke Musgrave, their rookie tight end, I think he's going to be underrated here. So you've got a team. What can you do with a quarterback starting for the first time? You run the ball. That's a quarterback's best friend. They say a tight end, but running the football, very important here. I think they have a chip on their shoulder. I think getting Aaron Rodgers out. They didn't make the playoffs with him last year. so I think they're going to be underrated in a very mediocre division here we're going to go over seven and a half wins minus 120 level one lock there it is right there and I'm with you 100% especially on that division man I mean people are talking about the Bears they're all of a sudden going to be great Justin Fields and DJ Moore are going to be fantastic I'll believe it when I see it the Lions of course they did well last year they're supposed to take that next step again I'll believe it when I see it and I think Jordan Love is better than a lot of people believe he's better And I feel like Green Bay knows he's better than that. So there you go. Green Bay over seven and a half wins, minus 120. Feel good about that one for the 2023 season.”
The Green Bay Packers finished the 2023 season 9-8, over the 7.5 win-total line (ESPN 2023 team schedule/record). (9-8 record)
“So we're going to go with Justin Steele of the Chicago Cubs here to record over five and a half strikeouts minus 105 hidden gem. Boom. There”
CHC 20, CIN 9 — Justin Steele struck out 6 in 6.0 IP as the Cubs routed the Reds 20-9, clearing the 5.5 strikeout line (ESPN box score). (Justin Steele: 6 K, 6.0 IP)
“The wrong team is favored. We're going with the Baltimore Orioles money line plus 105 over the Toronto Blue Jays. There you go. Them Baltimore Orioles”
BAL 13, TOR 3 — Baltimore Orioles beat Toronto 13-3 (Santander grand slam), moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South, minus 110, all the way up level three lock on a Tuesday. Nice, all the way up right there, talking about the J”
Texans 10-7, Jaguars 9-8 — The Houston Texans won the 2023 AFC South at 10-7; Jacksonville finished 9-8 and did not win the division (ESPN 2023 AFC South standings).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Red Sox first five innings, money line, plus 102 at Seattle. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Nick Pavetta has had a really interesting year. He began the year as a starter in the rotation, but his 630 ERA and eight starts got him demoted to the bullpen. Ever since, he has been a sort of long inning reliever for the Red Sox and has taken four to five innings per appearance out of the pen. whatever it has done for his arm has worked tremendously. It's crazy. As he has a 198 ERA in 41 innings as a reliever this season. Injuries to the starting rotation have pushed him back into the starter spot. But I don't think this guy's confidence has ever been this high after the last couple months. He'll face off against George Kirby, who has been strong with a 349 ERA, but has really struggled in the second half with a 1-1 record but a 6-19 ERA. A lot of those runs came against the Twins and Tigers, too, who don't have anywhere near the offense Boston carries. With the Mariners having a far better bullpen than Boston in this matchup, I'll leave it to the first five innings. I know you're not going to argue with me here. Wrong team favorite, Boston Red Sox. first five innings, money line, plus 102 over the Seattle Mariners.”
Boston and Seattle were tied 1-1 through 5 innings (Seattle won late, 6-2 final) — the first-5-innings Red Sox moneyline pushes (ESPN box score). (BOS 1, SEA 1 through 5 innings)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Padres, minus one and a half runs, minus 128 versus Colorado with the take back being plus the one and a half runs, plus 108. Wait, break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, after the All-Star break, I think the chances of this San Diego team are dwindling, by the way. People were talking about Juan Soto to the New York Yankees and Blake Snell and Josh Hader being dealt, but that's not going to happen in my opinion. The Padres are an NL West best six and four the last ten games, and a three-game sweep here of the Texas Rangers has them just five games out of a wild-card spot, which means they likely will be keeping their players and going for it. The offense has really turned things around, especially against lefties, ranking fourth in slugging and eighth in weighted on-base average here, and also weighted runs created in road games against left pitchers this season Now they go to Coors Field the most hitter park in baseball and face lefty Austin Gomber Gomber has quality starts in four of the last five, but he also has a 719 ERA at home, second worst of all qualified starting pitchers. Gomber is also tied for the most home runs allowed at home starts, 14 and is 315 on base average against his third worst in all of baseball. Seth Lugo has been Mr. Consistent. My opinion for San Diego, too, has just a 4.7 walk rate, a 338 road ERA, and even a 386 ERA and seven career starts pitched at cores. So San Diego's starting pitching really carried them over the weekend. So the bullpen should be well-rested in this one. Also, another note, Colorado traded off two key players yesterday. I just think that the clubhouse has got to be wrecked there. They're going to start bringing up guys soon here. I think you take the Padres here to blow out Colorado in Denver. San Diego Padres minus the one-and-a-half, minus 128. Blowout special over the Colorado Rockies.”
COL 4, SD 3 — Colorado beat San Diego 4-3 in 10 innings; the Padres lost by 1, failing to cover -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“the FanDuel.com line on this one, 33 and a half total points, Cleveland Jets Hall of Fame game. Lee, break this one down for us. Yeah, a lot of people look at recent memory and they'll say, oh, okay, last year the score was 27-11, went 38. You know, I see a line here of 33 and a half. Yeah, they should score, you know, 35, 40 points. Easy here in any game in the NFL. It's low for a reason. This is why. Eight of the last ten Hall of Fame games here have gone under. And let's look at the quarterback rotations. After Deshaun Watson here and also Josh Dobbs, you've got Dorian Thompson-Robinson. He's going to play some. Kellen Mond, who was horrific the last couple years in action when he played in the preseason. On the other side, the Jets, I don't know if we're even going to see Aaron Rodgers for a series. After that, Zach Wilson, he might play a quarter at most. He looked terrible. He's in the new system. Tim Boyle, Chris Streveler. I mean, those are not the guys who are going to instill any type of confidence. And after the first couple series, you're not only going to see second stringers, probably for the second half it all third and fourth stringers So there going to be no type of cohesion together This guy been in camp for less than 10 days I know they studying the playbook but you going to see all kinds of mistakes missed blocks, all takes in football. One missed block, quarterback is sacked. Unless we see, I think, a punt return for a touchdown or an INT return for a touchdown, I think this is a dead under. I'm going under 33-and-a-half in the Hall of Fame game on Thursday night. level one lock to start the week.”
CLE 21, NYJ 16 — Cleveland beat the Jets 21-16 in the 2023 Hall of Fame Game, a combined 37 points, over the 33.5 total-points line (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel line on this one The Mariners minus 142 versus the Diamondbacks with the take-back being plus 120. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, I think both teams are going to play well down the stretch here. And I think they have both the chance to get in as wild cards. Now, Seattle, brutal schedule coming out of the break. Seven combined games against Minnesota and a three-game set against the Toronto Blue Jays. The word was that Seattle was beat up and probably couldn't compete with either team while they got the split. And then they ended up taking two out of three against Toronto's here. So I just think that this team is going to go on a run here. I think the Diamondbacks series here is going to tell you really a lot about this team. Things also have opened up offensively for them. And also they're going to be hitting a hitter-friendly park here, which they haven't had too many times in the last couple months. So I've talked about Tommy Henry before. I just don't think he's a Major League Baseball caliber starting pitcher. He's pitched better at home this season, but he's 0-2 with a 623 ERA second half of the season so far. And anybody could have seen this coming. He had a 375 ERA in the first half of the season, but carried a 429 expected ERA. His strikeout rate is all the way down in the 10th percentile among Major League Baseball pitchers. And he was straining a lot of base runners. I just don't see that happening now. Seems like he's getting tired. Defense isn't great either. I also think that with a bullpen here, problems here for the Arizona Diamondbacks here, they're going to be in trouble. Logan Gilbert on the mound here for the Seattle Mariners, and he is starting to pitch extremely well. I made this line closer to minus 160. I just think that you're getting a lot of value here. Blowout special, number one. Seattle Mariners here over the Arizona Diamondbacks.”
SEA 5, ARI 2 — Seattle beat Arizona 5-2; the Mariners moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one, Vergara minus 150 versus Salvador with the take back being plus 125. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so this is the third fight on the preliminary card of the UFC 291. as I mentioned in Salt Lake City. Vergara taking on Salvador at 125-pound men's flyweight division. Now, the 32-year-old Texan Vergara comes in at 11-4-1 overall, 2-2 in the UFC, and two of his first four fights were pay-per-view fights. Now, I know he's on the undercard of these fights, but a little bit different when you're fighting at a pay-per-view than when you're fighting on a fight night. And Salvador 14 0 in the UFC has not fought on a pay here An important factor in this event as I mentioned altitude 4 feet in Salt Lake City will be the experience and conditioning Fighters who tend to fade will fade really fast here. Newcomers, inexperienced, and short-noticed fighters, which in this case here is Salvador, he's probably going to have trouble here with the altitude, and it's going to be a definite factor. After beating a guy in the contender series who clearly doesn't belong in the UFC, Salvador faded and didn't show much in his only UFC appearance. Vergara has shown improvement, in my opinion, since his debut while fighting some of the best young talent in the division. There is a clear difference, I think, here in competition faced between the two of them. in a battle of nicknameless fighters here. We are going with a minus 150 favorite, not Sofia, but C.J. Vergara here to use his experience in superior striking, I think, to wear down Salvador, leading to a dominant decision or maybe a possible finish here as his opponent fades in the later rounds here. Blowout special number two, C.J. Vergara, money line, minus 150.”
C.J. Vergara beat Vinicius Salvador by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC 291 on July 29, 2023; the Vergara moneyline won (Wikipedia: UFC 291).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Yankees minus 130 versus the Orioles with a take-back plus 110. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, I really like the progress here. Our first-round pick, Grayson Rodriguez, has made here for the Orioles since being recalled from the minors a few weeks ago. Giving up six runs here in almost 11 innings for a 5.06 ERA. But that is actually an improvement on a season-long year of 691. And he's started to limit the home runs allowed here. Here's the thing. He's facing Garrett Cole. And the Yankees team that get this is 52-18 this season when scoring three or more runs, which is third best in baseball. As much as I'd like Rodriguez's improvements, still giving up at least three or more runs in six of his 12 starts this season. and he's facing a Yankees lineup that has actually improved over the last seven days. And here it is. Here's the catch. Might be getting back Aaron Judge tonight. Garrett Cole should have no problem here either. 270-80 ERA on the season. Five and three lifetime here. 280 ERA against the Orioles. Pitched so consistently against them. I mean, he just keeps hitters off balance, and they just don't know what's coming. and gotten plenty of extension in his starts this year. But the one other bright spot for the Yankees so far has been their bullpen first in baseball in ERA I think the Bronx Bombers here start this massive divisional series off on the right foot here especially with Aaron Judge possibly coming back The crowd's going to be pumped. There will be a home field advantage here. New York Yankees, money line here, blowout special number three of the Baltimore Orioles.”
BAL 1, NYY 0 — Baltimore beat New York 1-0; the Yankees moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“Nico Horner for the Cubs, over one and a half total bases, minus 105 versus the Cardinals. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Cody Bellinger, that's the name we're hearing early and often all July. And, I mean, last two weeks, everyone's talking about the hitting streak he's on. Is he going to be traded at the deadline? But Nico Horner has been by far the Chicago Cubs' most consistent hitter all season, and he's only getting better. Horner hitting .280, .397 slugging percentage on the year, respectable. But the guy's hitting .340 right now in the month of July, and almost a third of his hits during the second half have been extra base hits. He's been better against righties like Myles Mykonos here. Mikolas, you know, he's one of these guys that doesn't impress me at all. And remember, this Cardinals team, what did they do? They had to fly across country after playing Arizona to get back home last night. Now, Mikolas, he's the third guy in their rotation. He takes the mound. Offense is doing fine, but pretty much depleted bullpen here. And Horner has seen a lot of him lately in 22 career bats. How about this? Has nine hits, including a double for a 4-9 career average. In fact, those two teams just faced each other. Mikolas' last start on July 22nd, and that game is three for four with a double and four total bases. I just think that familiarity here and success against this guy should help him out here tonight. We're going to go with Nico Horner of the Chicago Cubs to record over one and a half total bases, minus 105, hidden gem.”
Nico Hoerner doubled (2 total bases) in a 4-at-bat game against St. Louis on July 27, 2023, going over the 1.5 total-bases line (ESPN box score). (1-for-4, double, 2 TB)
“FanDuel.com line on this one, Notre Dame minus 20.5 versus Navy. But again, as mentioned, we're looking at the total points, and the total points in this one is 50.5. Notre Dame versus Navy, 2023 season opener in Ireland, August 26. Lee, break this one down for us. Okay, so a lot of people are going to play unders early in the season. Reason is the new rules in college football. You go out of bounds before two minutes to go in the half, and the clock's going to start up. And people think, well, maybe. They run the option, so surely you're going to have a low-scoring game. But let's look at the game last year. Not only did Notre Dame win the game 35-32, they scored 35 points in the first half, and then they just ran the ball and almost ended up losing the game somehow because you know just lost their focus But they were by far the better team And they did it pretty much with a guy that probably was like a juco quarterback So now they've got a studded quarterback, Sam Hartman. He is my pick, my underdog pick. I think he's going to have a shot at winning the Heisman with a loaded backfield. Good receivers, really good offensive line. Notre Dame always has a good offensive line. And Navy, people think just running the option. Well, in the game last year against Notre Dame, what did they do? They threw the football, and they'll be throwing the football a lot more this year. So I think that this team, Navy, is under the radar. They returned eight on offense here. They have two capable quarterbacks here. And I just think this is a game where the line's way too low here. I think 60, 65 points will be scored here in this game. So we're going to get on it early. We're going to play over 50 and a half points in the game, August 26th.”
ND 42, NAVY 3 — Notre Dame beat Navy 42-3 at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, a combined 45 points, under the 50.5 total-points line (Wikipedia: 2023 Notre Dame Fighting Irish football team).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Trailblazer minus 158 versus Michael, Maverick, Kiesa with the take back being plus 124. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so talent-wise, the Trailblazer, Kevin Holland, far superior against Kiesa. He's a superior striker. The only time he has struggled with grapplers, and that's Kies' game here, was at 185. Where's this fight at? 170. At 170, Holland can get up if he's taken down once or twice here. Holland, you think, God, the guy's been around forever. Been in the UFC since he was 25. He's only 30. This guy is an incredible athlete. He does not get tired in a three-round match here. Chiesa's 35 here, and Chiesa really has not had a significant win in two and a half years. Last finish was five years ago here. I think Chiesa's an incredible broadcaster. I think he might be, if not the best, he's in the top two or three. He's been doing that part-time here. I think he realizes he's running out of time here. I think Kevin Holland, who has taken fights as high as 185, he's done whatever the UFC has asked him. He needs to fight at 170. This is where he's a superior fighter here. So at 170, and that's where the fight is, I think he's just a much better fighter here. So I think Kevin Trailblazer Holland is going to possibly put Michael Maverick Chiesa into retirement here This is going to be a level two lock”
Kevin Holland submitted Michael Chiesa via brabo choke in round 1 (2:39) at UFC 291 on July 29, 2023; the Holland moneyline won (Wikipedia: UFC 291).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Tucker over one and a half total bases, plus 100 versus Texas Rangers. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, when you've got a guy hitting as well as Kyle Tucker in this kind of matchup, why not take him again today? We have already talked about how well Tucker is hitting lefties this year, which is crazy. Pretty interesting for a left-handed hitter. He's batting .361 with a .615 slugging percentage and 17 extra base hits this year versus Southpaws, all of which are top 15 in baseball. Add to that he hitting 392 in July with a 770 slugging percentage both of which are top three in all of baseball Now he getting a matchup tonight against another lefty Andrew Heaney which I love because Heaney has fallen off a cliff since the first two months of the season. He's running a 566 ERA since the start of June, and he just faced the Astros lineup three weeks ago in Arlington. Tucker only 1-7 against Heaney in his career, but that hit was a home run. And frankly, I don't think Heaney is the guy to slow him down now. If Heaney somehow sneaks out and is able to limit Tucker here, then the Rangers bullpen will have the task of trying to slow him down. And they ranked 27th in baseball in the ERA and was used extensively in the game last night. Tucker here should have no problem getting two bases or more here. Kyle Tucker we're going with him again over the Houston Astros over one and a half total bases plus 100 hidden gem”
Kyle Tucker went 0-for-1 with 2 walks (0 total bases) at Texas on July 26, 2023, under the 1.5 total-bases line (ESPN box score). (0-for-1, 2 BB, 0 TB)
“FanDuel.com line on this one the tigers money line minus 108 versus the angels with the take back being minus 108 it's minus 108 both ways lee break this one down for us yeah a lot of people have been talking about eduardo rodriguez being the best trade chip for the detroit tigers right now but i don't think enough people are talking about how strong of an addition michael lorenzen could be at this year's trade deadline lorenzen was the tigers lone all-star selection and he's proving why in the month of July, March and June were his really bad months this year. But he started July off with three straight shutout starts, going 18 and two-thirds innings with eight hits allowed, six walks and 14 strikeouts. He's never been a big strikeout guy like he used to be. But this fastball-slider combination has become elite. And at this point, he has seven pitches in his arsenal. Let me repeat that. You don't see this every day here. Maybe once every eight, ten years you see a guy that can do this. Seven pitches, which is extremely uncommon in today's age of baseball. It also helps that he's facing the Angels lineup, which cannot hit righties very well right now. They rank fifth on the season in weighted runs created versus right-handed pitching. But since Mike Trout went down on July 3rd, they've dropped down to 11th. That stole doesn't even account for the injuries to Jared Walsh, Anthony Rendon, and also Brandon Drury either. Patrick Sandoval starts for the Angels, and I just don't think that much of this guy this year. His strikeout rate is down in the 20th percentile. He's walking guys above league average, and he's coming into this game on seven days rest. Why is that important? typically pitchers go on five days rest hasn't worked well for Sandoval in the past he's seven and twelve in games started on six plus days rest which is crazy I love to have the extra day or two but with the Tigers bullpen being far better than the Angels I think this one going to be a blowout here Let go with the Detroit Tigers money line minus 108 blowout special”
LAA 11, DET 4 — The scheduled July 26 Tigers-Angels game was rained out and made up as game 2 of a July 27 doubleheader, which the Angels won 11-4 (Detroit also lost game 1, 6-0); the Tigers moneyline lost either way (ESPN box score).
“The FanDuel.com line on that, if you're going no, is minus 150. If you're rolling yes and you're looking at some teams, the Dodgers are at plus 300, the Yankees are at plus 400, Mariners plus 800, and the Braves. Could you imagine him on the Braves plus 1,200? Lee, break this one down for us. Yeah, I mean, the Angels have played much better of late. I mean, we're talking about since the All-Star break, only lost three times, and they have won seven. So seven to ten is a nice start. They're three games above 500. But I still think that their playoff hopes are pretty slim. I think if they want to have any chance of keeping him or to make the playoffs, they've got to keep this guy around. I mean, I just don't think – I think it's a bad message to their team, and they have no chance if they fall off. So I think even though you look at the different odds here, and I mean the Dodgers would love to have them at plus 300, but are teams really going to give up a whole lot if they're already strong like the Dodgers? Yankees, I don't think they have a chance. Neither do the Phillies, Mets. I think they've given up on the season. the Mariners their fans are pretty high on thinking they might have a chance if he wants to stay on the west coast uh Giants maybe Braves that's a pipe dream I'd watch the Braves every single night plus 1200 but I'm going to say that he stays I think that the Angels if they trade him it sends a horrible message to the franchise here and they they got to try to do anything possible to make the playoffs here. I'm going to go with Shoei Otani staying with the LA Angels at the trade deadline early next week. So I'm going to go with a level one lock that Otani stays with the Angels. Minus 150.”
Shohei Ohtani was not traded before the August 1, 2023 MLB trade deadline and remained with the Angels for the rest of the season (Wikipedia: 2023 Los Angeles Angels season).
“Tampa Bay minus one and a half runs plus 108 versus Miami with the take back being plus the one and a half runs minus 130. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right. So when you have a tough day, what you do is you go back to what you know best. And every single night, Marlins are my favorite team in the National League. Tampa Bay, which is close to me also, favorite team in the AL. And they're usually on two of my three screens. So I think that I know these two teams really well. Boy, have they struggled. Marlins, until the win on Sunday, until the walk-off by Lewis Rice, had lost eight straight. Tampa Bay has lost seven of eight and lost three of four at Baltimore But what concerns me is sometimes you look at a game and you go well okay probably going to be a one game You don't want to lay over 200 with a favorite here in Tampa Bay. Like I said, they've lost 7 out of 8. In fact, during that run, the most they scored was 4 runs. In the 3 games against Baltimore, 3 of the 4 games they scored just 3 runs. So this is a team that's not scoring. Kyler Glass now, early in the season, looked good. 3-3, 362 ERA. He might hold them to two, three, four runs to Marlins, but I don't see Tampa Bay scoring a whole lot of runs. Edward Cabrera, what I like about him and Miami Marlins is when a guy goes out and before he comes back, they make sure he's ready. So they usually don't struggle in their first game back. He has not pitched for a while, but coming off the injured list, I think he'll be stronger than ever here. Louis arrives. Here's a guy that he stirs the drink. He finally is getting it going again. He was above 400 for much of the year. He dipped to as low as 375, but on Sunday went three for four, including the walk-off, the middle of the order. 2-3-4 did not produce in that game, but they're hitting the ball hard just right at people. So I think this is a one-run game here either way. I'm going to take the one runs here. I think this is a great situational play here. Both teams just struggling. They just want the win here. I think they'll play for the one-run win. I wouldn't be shocked if this game goes to extra innings. And what also favors the Marlins is they were off on Monday. So the back end of their bullpen is ready. Where they've had trouble is when they play four or five games in a row That back end of the bullpen, their eighth, ninth inning guys have to go. Multiple games are in trouble, but not today. We're going to take the one-and-a-half runs here with the Miami Marlins against the Tampa Bay Rays here. Wrong team favorite.”
TB 4, MIA 1 — Tampa Bay beat Miami 4-1; the Marlins lost by 3 runs, failing to cover +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Dodgers, minus 162. First, Toronto with the take back for the Blue Jays being plus 136. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Julio Rice has really struggled for the L.A. Dodgers this year. Came in as he expected, Ace, but his year raised 5.02, including a 675 ERA in July, but I think we're overreacting a little bit here. Keep in mind, this is a guy one year removed from having the best ERA in baseball, 2022. He has a 502 ERA, but his expected ERA is down to 4.02, which suggests here he's due to regress in a good way soon. Then you talk about left on-base percentage or the percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands. This is another good indicator of a pitcher's good or bad luck streak. Urias has stranded just 68 of base runners this season which ranks as the 19th worst in all of baseball right now it also worth pointing out that this guy has been his usual self at home an amazing 215 ERA over 38 innings His problems have come on the road where he throwing at a 788 ERA and has allowed twice as many homers as games at home. So, hence, probably going to see a different pitcher. Big problem for the Blue Jays here is the power against left-handed pitching. We all know Toronto is a power base lineup with Vlad Guerrero Jr., Matt Chapman, George Springer, and the rest of them. But they have just 15 home runs against left-handed pitchers this year, and only four more than Freddie Freeman has by himself. They rank much higher in batting average and weighted runs created versus South Poles. But this team has not hit for power well against lefties this year. I think that will show tonight with a guy like Chris Bassett, who has struggled to the tune of a 581 ERA on the road this season, on the mound tonight for Toronto. I think this line should be minus 180, minus 185. We're going to go with the L.A. Dodgers at home tonight, where Julio Reyes has been a different pitcher. Money line, minus 162 over the Toronto Blue Jays.”
LAD 8, TOR 7 — The Dodgers beat Toronto 8-7 in 10 innings; the Dodgers moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Over nine runs is minus 106. Under nine runs is minus 114. Lee, what direction are we going? What level lock is it? Okay, so Steven Ratz has been a really interesting pitcher this year. And I think it's obvious what situations you can take advantage of him here. He started the season as a member of the starting rotation, but he was so bad for the Cardinals, who ranked 23rd in baseball in Team ERA, they pushed him into a reliever role. The problem is the Cardinals have had so many pitching injuries and issues that Matz has been forced back in the rotation. Matz was a great reliever, though, 0-1-1, but had a 281 ERA with no home runs allowed over 16 innings. As a starter, 1-6 with a 5-12 ERA and 10 home runs allowed over 65 innings. This is interesting because he's obviously been a starter for the majority of his career, but whatever the Cardinals have done with him has not worked out in the rotation. They have limited him to four or five innings as a starter here and since coming back from the bullpen. But all that does is force a horrible reliever group into the game early. I think they'll score some runs here. So, you know, what we have is Paul Goldschmidt, even though he's probably hearing different opinions, going to be traded. I think he's eventually going to be let go as they try to rebuild here. He and Orianda both hitting well. So for Arizona it has a lot more here the same as far as pitching here They still relying on their top end starting pitching to make up for bad starting depth here and a really bad bullpen Merrill Kelly has been the number two for them for a while but even he is starting to slip with all the pressure he's facing to put up good starts here. 4-0-2 ERA in the month of July, and it has come in the form of five long shots he's given up here over just 31 innings. This guy is usually very good at limiting home runs with just 10 home runs allowed on the season. But with five of them coming in the last month alone, it looks like he's starting to fatigue here. He can extend into games a little bit more than Matt's. But with both of these bullpens struggling so much and both of them being used seven innings last night, four relievers by each team, I think there's going to be plenty of runs scored here again here. We're going to go over nine runs, minus 106 in the Arizona-St. Louis game. Level two lock.”
ARI 3, STL 1 — Arizona beat St. Louis 3-1, a combined 4 runs, well under the 9-run total line (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Quinn Priester under three and a half strikeouts, minus 144. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so there's a well-known rule in betting on rookie pitchers in baseball. And that rule is that you need to find a way to fade a rookie making his road major league debut whenever you can and wherever you can. I not going to play the money line on San Diego here because it priced out at minus 250 and I not going to play the minus one and a half because San Diego likely only going to get eight at We've talked about that many times. Usually want to play when you're going to lay one and a half runs a team that's going to be on the road, so they're at home only eight at-bats here. But I do think you can find a prop to take advantage of, and it's a preacher's strikeout total. This kid was highly touted at a high school and was a first-round pick for Pittsburgh in 2019. But his major league debut against the Cleveland Guardians went horribly, allowing seven earned runs on two home runs and five-and-a-third innings pitch with just two strikeouts. The Pirates are not extending him into games as they only allowed him to throw 73 pitches in his debut, and he obviously didn't show much in the way of strikeout stuff with only two Ks. For San Diego, it needs to be more the same from the last seven to ten days if they want to stay in this postseason hunt. They've come alive offensively, going 4-2 in the last six games, but they've also limited their strikeouts. After ranking 19th in all of baseball in strikeouts this season, they're the fourth fewest strikeouts in the month of July here, striking out only 135 times in 18 games. Obviously, they've been hitting a lot more. If they keep this up offensively here, I just don't think it's going to be possible for Priester here to last longer than the third or fourth inning, as the Padres hitters here have been forcing more pitches per at-bat than almost any other team in baseball over the last month. Hidden gem. We're going to go the under three-and-a-half strikeouts, minus 144.”
PIT 8, SD 4 — Quinn Priester struck out 4 batters over 5.1 IP in Pittsburgh's 8-4 win at San Diego, going over the 3.5-strikeout line (ESPN box score). (Quinn Priester: 4 K, 5.1 IP)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Brewers minus 120 versus the Reds with the take back being plus 102. Break this one down for us, Lee. Graham Ashcroft. Graham Ashcroft here has found something in his game over the last month of the season. This is crazy. He has been forced into the A spot of the Reds rotation because of injuries to Hunter Green and others. And it really hasn't gone well for him so far. 5-7. 5-77 ERA with a 5-42 expected ERA. But just take a look at his last couple starts. If you see an ERA over five for a starting pitcher, you're expecting him to consistently be bad for the whole year. Not for Ashcraft here. He's 3-1 over the last 25 innings of work with just five earned runs and a 230 batting average against him in that span. His walks still a tad high, nine in that span, but you can't ignore a 182 ERA in a month-long sample size. His spin rates and pitch velocity aren any higher than they were to start the season but he has finally returned to his cutter the majority of time throwing it over 50 of the time in July The cutter hits 95 miles per hour which is almost unheard of but more importantly has made his sinker and slider more effective. In fact, in July, he gave up just a 167 and 143 batting average on those two pitches. Batters were hitting in the 300s the rest of the season against those pitches. for Colin Ray here of the Milwaukee Brewers. I think this is a really tough situation. Ray, 5-4 with nothing special, 464 ERA on the season after being moved to the rotation. But I don't think he's going to get much support from his team here. First off, this is a big revenge series here. Again, game here for the Reds. The Brewers swept Cincinnati a few weeks ago as the All-Star break ended and retook the NL Central lead pretty quickly. Now the Brewers are coming off a really tough weekend series against Atlanta Braves, and we've seen a team coming off playing the Braves. They have a real tough time the next series, but having those emotional games here, also using a lot from their bullpen. Their bullpen was really, those arms really extended. I don't think they get off on the right foot in this series. Wrong team favored. Cincinnati Reds money line plus 102 over the Milwaukee Brewers tonight.”
MIL 3, CIN 2 — Milwaukee beat Cincinnati 3-2; the Reds moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Colorado Rams win total over-under 4.5. Over is minus 164. The under is minus 150. Lee, break this down. Let us know what we're doing here. So here's something crazy. As you mentioned, that was a really good point. We talked about Deion Sanders in Colorado. Win total for Colorado, 3.5. Now, Colorado State isn't much higher at 4.5, but you would think, oh, coming off a 3-9 season, they'll win three or four games. But let's take a deep dive into this team. So, love their coach, Jay Norville, comes over from Nevada. When he was at Nevada, did a really nice job. He built him into a strong contender. In fact, the last four seasons he went 8-5, 7-6, and the COVID season went 7-2 and 8-5. So first season, total disaster. Played a freshman quarterback, Clay Millen. Well, if you're saying, God, that name sounds familiar. Yeah, his father, Hugh Millen, former Washington Husky, former New England Patriot, Dallas Cowboy quarterback. So it comes from a great line. And it wasn't like he played poorly. I mean, he could end up being the best quarterback in the conference or right up there. He was sacked 59 times When a quarterback sacked more than 30 times that a lot 59 times So what did Jay Norville do He dipped into the transfer portal and picked up four new starters So he got possibly an all center in Jacob Gardner We've talked about center, most important position. But all four other projected starters have, get this, come from other teams and had 22, 24, 5, and 14 starts and come from places like Missouri. So I think their offensive line is going to cut that number in half. They've got an all-conference receiver in Torrey Horton. I had 71 catches for over 1,100 yards. He's a really good returner. They picked up Kid from Utah to be their kicker. They had kicking problems last year. And I like guys, you need leaders on defense at all three major positions. They've got one on the defensive line, Kid Kamara. Second team all-conference, eight and a half sacks last year. Got a really good linebacker transfer, Trey Pastor, from Cal, and also had maybe the best safety in the conference, kid named Jack Howell. What did he do in 10 starts? He had over 108 tackles, three interceptions, had a couple sacks, probably sold popcorn and hot dogs at halftime. So I think this team is much improved here. The total is four and a half. They start off with Washington State at home. They could win that game. Play at Colorado, could win that game. They play Middle Tennessee State, probably win that game. They'll beat Utah Tech. I think they'll beat Utah State. I think they're going to start off four and one here. A little bit tougher schedule then. They've got to play Boise State, but they finish off with Nevada and Hawaii to end the season. I've got them winning six games here. We're going to start off the week. I don't know if I've done this in a long time with a level three lock. Wow. Colorado State Rams over four and a half, minus 164.”
Colorado State finished the 2023 season 5-7 overall, going over the 4.5 season win-total line (Wikipedia: 2023 Colorado State Rams football team). (5-7 record)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Guardians versus Phillies. We're going to go under eight and a half runs, minus 106. Break this one down for us. Yeah, what factor do we always tell people to consider when betting on baseball? You've got to check the weather. Obviously wind and rain and humidity affect some ballparks more than others but it almost always has a big factor in the money line or more importantly on the game total I think it's going to play a big factor in the game at Cleveland tonight. The Phillies and Guardians are playing at Progressive Field, which is already a very friendly pitcher park here. But even more importantly, the wind is going to be blowing into home plate at almost 10 miles per hour. That is almost an always over killer here. And if you're looking for runs, I just think that you got to look at the pitcher's styles. Gavin Williams, a rookie for Cleveland, has a 394 ERA and hasn't pitched very well at home yet. But he has a 25.9% fly ball percentage on batted balls this season, which is almost 3% higher than the league average. My favorite name pitcher, Ranger Suarez, the Phillies starter, doesn't have as much of a fly ball-based profile. But he's still carrying a .384 ERA, which drops to .239 away from home. And he's a lefty. Whenever the Guardians face a lefty, that's not good news for their fans here. Cleveland just 16-20 against lefties this year and ranks 22nd in batting average, 26th in OPS, and 27th in weighted runs created against Southpaws. Each of these bullpens is very well-rested coming into this game, and each bullpen has some really strong arms right now. This game, I think this is a 3-2 or 4-3 game at most here. We're going under 8.5 runs, minus 106 in the Cleveland Guardians, Philadelphia Phillies game here. Level 1 lock.”
CLE 6, PHI 5 — Guardians beat Phillies 6-5; combined 11 runs, over the 8.5 total (ESPN box score).
“fanduel.com line on this one lance lynn over seven strikeouts minus 110 break this one down for us lee it's just crazy three games i don't think we've ever done this where i didn't pick a side in any of the three games first game was an under here is a player prop and then we're going to finish off uh where a game where we're going to go with the run line This game, Lance Lynn has not done much really well this year. He has a 6-0-6 ERA and a 6-8 record, but he's done one thing extremely well, and that is racking up strikeouts. He has 133 in the 108 innings pitched, and that puts him in the 77th percentile among Major League Baseball pitchers and strikeout rate. What has helped him a lot in the last couple starts has been he's reintroducing his sweeper. This guy throws first pitch strikes more than anyone in baseball. But when it's a 92-mile-an-hour fastball down the middle, it's going to get crushed. So since he started using the sweeper here, and probably I think I put it back in mid-June is when I started tracking this, he's averaging 8.8 strikeouts per start. His ERA hasn't been great. And I'm not betting on him to win the game for the White Sox, but he's facing off against a twins team that strikes out more than any other team in baseball. We talked about layers, so many layers to this game. Minnesota ranks first in strikeouts overall by a mile with 1 strikeouts They the only team in baseball with more than 1 The second team ranked in that category is Seattle They only have 940. They have 50 more strikeouts against right-handed pitchers than in the other team as well at 761. The thing is they should at least be improving against Lynn here throughout their career because they see him so often. But in 114 at-bats against Lynn, this current Twins lineup has 41 strikeouts, which equals to a strikeout rate of 36% of the time. I'm not saying Lynn is going to shut this team down, but he's capable of putting up 9, 10, or 11 strikeouts and a start pretty easy. I think he does it here. Lance Lynn of the Chicago White Sox over seven strikeouts. Hidden gem.”
MIN 9, CHW 4 — Lance Lynn struck out 6 over 6.2 innings and took the loss as Minnesota beat Chicago 9-4; his strikeout total falls short of the over-7 line (ESPN box score). (Lance Lynn: 6 strikeouts (6.2 IP))
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Astros, minus 1.5 runs, minus 140. And the take back for the A's, plus 1.5 runs, plus 116. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so it's so important. Some people say, oh, just look at numbers. You can't win just looking at numbers and stats. You have to look at games. And I was watching the game last night, the Houston-Oakland Athletics game, and what I saw is a team in Oakland, and they were playing better of late. They had won the two games before that. They couldn't come up with a key hit. I mean, they were leaving, stranding guys inning after inning against Houston. Their starter, kid from Louisiana Lafayette, remember him from his college days, Hogan Harrison pitching his heart out. But they could only get one run. He makes one mistake, and who did he make it against? The guy that we thought he would, Kyle Tucker, gives up a double, two-run double, game, set, match. They looked defeated in the last couple innings trying to score against the Houston relievers. So now they've got to try to come back and get a win here or keep the game close. I don't see it. Frambois Valdez, one of the top pitchers in Major League Baseball, Here's a guy, when he gets up on guys, he puts them away. High strikeout rate here. So he's going to be in this game here, and I think he's going to be pitching with a lead. When he's got the lead, look out here. J.P. Sears has pitched better for the Oakland A's here, but just think that he's going to struggle again. He's allowed 50 runs here and 106 innings pitched here. I think Houston will have the lead. And look at the middle of the lineup. Kyle Tucker talked about him last night. And then also in the ninth inning Alex Bregman He hits a solo shot They covered the one and a half last night and then they get the extra at bat You never want to take a home team almost never in my opinion because you only get eight at bats. They get nine at bats against this Oakland pitching staff here. I'm laying the one and a half runs here. We're going to go with a level two lock to end the week. Houston Astros here, minus the one and a half runs against the hapless Oakland A's.”
OAK 4, HOU 6 — Astros beat Athletics 6-4; Houston's margin of +2 clears the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one for Kyle Tucker over under total bases. one and a half total bases minus 110 versus the A's. Break this one down for us, Lee. Isn't it crazy? I mean, no one is talking and really watching the Houston Astros, but there's a kid right now that's really good baseball. And on top of that, even if you were watching some of the Astros games, probably not going to be watching the Astros athletics games, but there is one guy to watch in this game. It's Kyle Tucker. In the month of July, he's hitting a cool .385 with a .654 slugging percentage, including five doubles and three home runs over 14 games. But what makes him an easy guy to bet on tonight, in my opinion, is his splits against lefties. So far in 2023 Tucker is hitting good for eighth in baseball against Southpaws along with a slugging percentage in July alone He's hitting .400, the .650 slugging percentage against left-handers, too. That's bad news for Hogan Harris, the rookie left-hander starting for Oakland tonight. Harris, .651 ERA in 47 innings this year. and he's actually giving up far worse numbers against left-handed hitters like Tucker than he is against righties. He's just not a big strikeout guy, and he gives up a fly ball rate of more than 7% higher than the rest of Major League Baseball. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Kyle Tucker go yard here tonight, and all he needs really here is an extra base hit or a couple singles. hidden gem Kyle Tucker of the Houston Astros to record here over one and a half total bases”
Kyle Tucker doubled to center, driving in the go-ahead two-run double, for 2 total bases against Oakland on July 20, 2023, over the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (1-for-4, 2 TB (double))
“fanduel.com line on this one the tab bay rays minus one and a half runs plus 114 versus baltimore with the take back being plus one and a half runs minus 137 break this one down for us lee yeah and i kind of called it i did think that texas was going to have uh a strong finish to that series for our clients so if you're with us you got a nice winner on that one um for for for yesterday i think that the Tampa Bay Rays have a bit of a problem on their hands. If Shane McClanahan is going to start game one of a postseason series tomorrow, the Rays, I just don't see them having a reliable number two guy behind him. Tyler Glass now was supposed to be that guy when he got healthy, but he either hasn't been healthy or he hasn't been consistent this year. He's been better so far in July. But if you look at Glassnow's month of June, he gave up four home runs and 13 walks in just 26 innings through five starts. He's always been a high strikeout guy, but 13 walks is not reliable, especially when facing the Orioles lineup. That doesn't strike out against righties. Just 562 strikeouts this season, which ranks as the 26th highest in baseball team that, you know, they know the strike zone. So for Baltimore's Kyle Gibson, it's not about outpitching Tyler Glassnow. He's not good enough to do that, but it's about continuing to do what he's done on the road this year. He's been respectable, and he has a 421 ERA. He's going to keep him in the game here. The Orioles have covered the plus one-and-a-half runs in five of his last six starts away from Baltimore. Keep in mind also, Baltimore got out of town early yesterday afternoon after their win over the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Tampa just kept playing three straight tough games against Texas here, and they didn't get back to Tampa. I heard until like 2-3 in the morning last night. So if you see some slow feet in this game, I think it's going to be from the home team tonight, also an exhausted bullpen here. We're going to go with the Baltimore Orioles plus the one-and-a-half runs here.”
TB 3, BAL 4 — Orioles beat Rays 4-3 to take sole lead of the AL East; Orioles' margin of +1 clears the +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“we going to go with a level one lock here i going to go with sam hartman at 18 to 1 put up returns here The public dying to have Notre Dame have them have a Heisman Trophy winner again. Yeah, you're right about that, man. The public is always waiting for Notre Dame to do something big, right? And especially being a Heisman Trophy winner, it's been a long time. As you mentioned, the last time was Tim Brown. Touchdown Timmy. So there you go. That's Liam. What level lock are you going on that one? Level one lock. Level one Unlock Sam Hartman of Notre Dame 18-1 to be the Heisman Trophy winner of this upcoming college football season.”
Jayden Daniels of LSU won the 2023 Heisman Trophy, not Sam Hartman (Wikipedia List of Heisman Trophy winners).
“FanDuel.com line on this one, the Braves, minus one and a half runs, minus 118 versus the Diamondbacks. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so the Atlanta Braves come to this game on their first three-game losing streak since all the way back May 14th. So we're getting them at a bit of a buy low spot here. When you look at those last three games, it has not been the offense's fault at all. They scored 19 runs during that stretch, but the starting pitching staff and its lack of starter depth has hurt them. Colby Allard was thrown into the mix due to Kyle Wright's injury. He gave up four runs on seven hits in less than two innings. Then Bryce Elder, who led all baseball and ERA heading into the All-Star break, regressed fully in his last two games, giving up 14 runs over just six innings. Now, though, they get back to their current ace, Charlie Morton. Morton has been absolutely lights out this year with that mid-90s fastball. and 12-6 curveball. He has a 320 ERA that drops a solid three against teams with winning records. So a lot of times you look at ERAs, you know, like, oh, he probably padded against some of the bad teams out there. But not been the case. He's been lights out against the better teams. He's also gone 4-0 with a 150 ERA in the last four starts. Ryan Nelson, on the other hand, is more of the Diamondbacks' problems here. Pretty much a fourth or fifth starter that should really be in the bullpen or maybe even in the minors. But instead, he has 19 starts at the big league level with an ERA just barely below five at the moment. His expected ERA is up to 491, so it's not like he's been getting unlucky this year. After such a wild game last night, 16-13, with a football score, where both bullpens were absolutely drained. I'll trust the Braves here experience here to build that lead and to hold on to it here. Blowout special, Atlanta Braves, minus the one and a half runs, minus 118 here, should be an easy win.”
ATL 3, ARI 5 — Diamondbacks beat Braves 5-3 behind seven innings from Ryne Nelson; Braves lost outright, busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one, the Blue Jays minus 120 versus the Padres with the take back being plus 102. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, the biggest reason here I like San Diego is not their offense, which is coming around. It's Hugh Darvish here. He has right now just been lights out against the Jays historically. He has an ERA of just 268 ERA in their eight meetings. So he's, for some reason, pitches his best there. San Diego's near the end of this six-game road trip here, and they did drop three or four in Philadelphia, but with the game last night, I think they're starting to come around here. They're eight games out, so they got out of the wild card. They got to get going here They got to get moving here so I think their bats are moving here Manny Machado he leads the way when he hot He just one of these guys You don want him when he not doing well he mopes in the locker room I mean, everyone talks about it. But incredible months so far, five homers, 18 RBIs here, has over 50 RBIs on the season. Don't be surprised in a couple weeks if you see him sitting at around 70 RBIs. Jose Barrios is going to be on the mound here for Toronto here. and just don't trust the guy. He's steady, but when you're facing a team starting to get hot here, playing with some determination and knowing they've got to put together a winning streak, I think they're in trouble here. So I just think that this fight should be – San Diego should be the favorite here. Wrong team favorite. Slam Diego does it again tonight here. We're going to go with them two nights in a row. Let's ride the hot team, hot pitcher here. Wrong team favorite over Toronto.”
TOR 0, SD 2 — Padres shut out Blue Jays 2-0 as Manny Machado drove in 2 runs and Yu Darvish pitched 6 innings for the win; Padres moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“fanduel.com line on this one iowa state representing the big 12 five and a half wins the over under five and a half wins lee break this one down for us wow you talk about a coach whose stock has dropped quickly matt campbell was talked about as maybe getting one of the top five or ten college coaching openings or an NFL opening. And then he goes from having a 9-3, 7-6 record last year to 4-8. But last time he had a losing record, 3-9. 2016, he roared back with an 8-5 record. I think he's one of the better coaches here. He just had an inexperienced team. He had to play with a freshman quarterback. Hunter Deckers. How bad was Hunter Deckers? Well, looked at the tape. And he would take you from 30 to 30 and then all of a sudden make key mistakes. He'd throw the ball late on the break, not delivering it early enough, trying to force things. And you talk about bad luck here. They blew Iowa State four fourth quarter leads. That's right. Four fourth quarter leads here. I counted. They were just five plays away from being nine and three. And if they were nine and three, you're probably sitting with a win total here of seven and a half. I know they got to play TCU, Texas, and also Oklahoma, but two of the three are at home. Let's look at their schedule. Northern Iowa, I think they beat them. They beat Iowa last year. I think that's a toss-up because the game's in Ames this year. at Iowa, at Ohio, they'll win that game. I think Oklahoma State is down here. They get to play some teams coming into the new conference here, like Cincinnati, I don't think there's any great shake here, and also BYU, so I think BYU's down a little bit here. I'm going to go with one of the best coaching staffs here, one of the best head coaches here, real good home field advantage here, and the team has a bunch of sophomores and juniors that are going to come of age here. Also got two transfer receivers in, Jaden Higgins from Eastern Kentucky. No one knows about this guy, over 1,000 yards, 15 starts last year for them. And Demetri Stanley from Colorado, he's a solid guy. That was their weakness. I think they got some guys here that can get down the field and make some big plays They just did not get any big plays Then on top of that I think they got three running backs this year Cartavious Norton he started then got hurt He'll be back. Jahiri Brock started nine games last year. He's a tough guy here. Weighs 220, gets the inside yards you need on third and short. And Arlen Harris here, a redshirt freshman. I think he's the wild card, the game breaker here. I'm going over five and a half wins for the Iowa State Cyclones.”
Iowa State finished the 2023 season 7-6 overall (6-3 in conference), including a Liberty Bowl loss to Memphis, clearing the 5.5 season win-total line (Wikipedia 2023 Iowa State Cyclones football team). (7-6 record)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Justin Rose plus 190 to finish in the top 20 of the British Open. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, I'm willing to forgive Rose's miscut at last week's Scottish Open. As he was top four in the British Masters on the European Tour. Overall historically he been one of the best Lynx golfers in the past decade He owns finishes of top two top six and top four and three additional top 20s at the Open This major season, he has been top 16 and a top 10 finish at the Masters and the PGA Championship. And overall, in the last 24 rounds, Rose is 11th in the field in stroke games here. So I think he should thrive this week at Royal Liverpool. And I think he's a great bet for a top 20 finish here. So he's plus money, top 20, probably only because he missed the cut last week. Would have been probably plus 120, plus 130. Get him now plus 190, a lot of value. So we're going to go with a hidden gem here. Justin Rose, top 20 finish here, plus 190.”
Justin Rose made the cut and finished tied for 20th at the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool, shooting 148 (+6) over four rounds (73-75-...), satisfying the top-20 finish bet (Wikipedia 2023 Open Championship leaderboard). (T20, 148 (+6))
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Padres minus 116 versus Toronto with the take back being minus 102 for the Blue Jays. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so for San Diego, struggles really don't make sense here at the plate here. I don't understand it. Sometimes guys are just in a funk, not having career years. But I think they're going to have success here against Alex Manoa for Toronto. I backed Manoa early. He just did not have it in the first half here. He's going to make his return home after a month in the minors. They had him working on a lot of different stuff. I mean, he just was not right. But he came back up and he pitched once going six innings of one-run baseball against, though, a horrible Detroit Tigers offense right before the All-Star break. His fastball control and his pitch movement look much better than it did in the first half, but I don't think Toronto did him any favors by pitching him in his first game back just before the Midsummer Classic, then forcing him to take 11 days off here. I think his rhythm is going to be severely tested here because he's one of those guys, he pitches really well on five days rest, doesn't do well on short rest or long rest like he is here tonight. So he's expected to go probably four to five innings, and that's going to be a tough burden here for the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen. The relievers only pitched 11 innings in the three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks, but their all-star closer, Jordan Romano, actually got hurt during the all-star game, is likely out for this game. and the three other big relievers were used in high-leverage spots here on Sunday. So that could be a problem here. I'm going to go with a blowout special. I think San Diego gets back on track here. I'm going to lay the small money line, minus 116. I think this should be a line of probably minus 130 minus 140 Blowout special San Diego Padres money line tonight over the Toronto Blue Jays”
TOR 1, SD 9 — Padres beat Blue Jays 9-1 behind a Juan Soto two-run homer and six sharp innings from Joe Musgrove; Padres moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Mariners minus 124 versus the Twins with the takeback being plus 106. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Brian Wu of the Seattle Mariners might be the best pitcher nobody is talking about in Major League Baseball this season. Wu, 23-year-old righty out of Cal Poly, who was in his rookie year. He came in to replace Robbie Ray after Ray went down for the year. Strong numbers, only a one-on-one record, but a .363 ERA in the seven starts under his belt. But if you look through his starts, virtually all of his runs came in the first three appearances. He started after those first three appearances with a .730 ERA in the first 12 innings. Since then, he's got 22 innings pitched with a 161 ERA, 23 strikeouts, and just a, how about this, a minuscule 173 batting average against his big advantage and his biggest mismatch in this game tonight is his fastball. Wood throws his fastball 50% of the time, which ranks him in the top 20 among all Major League Baseball pitchers for fastball use. It has also above average velocity. He tops out 96, 97 miles per hour, but should be even more effective tonight because he's facing the Minnesota Twins. We all know Minnesota's offense has been awful and disappointing this season, and that usually happens when big leaguers cannot hit the fastball. Minnesota ranks just 24th in baseball and runs per game on the road at 411, but they rank just 18th against fastballs, which should be a power-heavy lineup here. This is where the team is supposed to thrive, and they just haven't. The problem here for them is that Wu can locate the fastball and is going to be throwing it almost half the time tonight. Bailey Ober goes for Minnesota here, and I think he's going to regress towards the mean soon as well. His expected ERA is a full point higher than his actual ERA at this moment, and he's stranding. Get this. This is crazy. almost 81 percent of his base runners to this point i mean i wouldn't be surprised the next four or five outings if he only strounds 55 to 60 percent take the mariners here at home um you know what i i just like this game a lot i gonna go with on tuesday a level two lock seattle mariners money line”
SEA 3, MIN 10 — Twins beat Mariners 10-3 with Bailey Ober pitching sharply and Alex Kirilloff a double shy of the cycle; Mariners moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“This hidden gem is going to be about Mookie Betts and total bases in the Dodgers at Orioles game. The Dodgers come into this one 53-39. The Orioles are 57-35. But we going to talk about Mookie Betts of the Dodgers and the total bases FanDuel line on this Mookie Betts over one and a half total bases minus 115 against Dodgers against the Orioles Break this one down for us, Lee. So Mookie Betts didn't do very well for us in the home run derby, but he made it clear that he has his sights set on something else because this guy might be the best hitter in baseball so far in July. 42 at-bats this month, sitting 405, fifth best in baseball, with an 881 plugging percentage, second in baseball since the start of the month, and that includes five home runs and five doubles. He's not just getting scratch-out singles. Now, he's going to face off against a former first-round pick in Grayson Rodriguez in this one. Rodriguez is considered the top-pitching prospect in baseball, but things have not gone well for him in the pros so far. 2-2, but with a 7.35 ERA and 13 home runs allowed in 45 innings so far at the big league level. Whiteys, like Betts, have absolutely crushed him so far. They're hitting .292 with a .504 slugging percentage and 12 extra base hits. I mean, his return, Rodriguez pitching here against a red-hot Dodgers team in his first pro start since May 26th, it's a bad matchup. Even if Betts starts slow in this one, the Orioles don't have their full bullpen right now. After a really tight series against Miami, they extended their bullpen. They're bringing guys in in the fifth, sixth inning. I expect Betts here to take advantage here. Mookie Betts to record over one and a half total bases, minus 115.”
Mookie Betts went 1-for-5 with a single in the 5th (thrown out trying to stretch it to a double) for 1 total base against Baltimore on July 17, 2023, under the 1.5 line (ESPN play-by-play/box score). (1-for-5, 1 TB (single))
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Cavaliers minus three versus the Rockets. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so both teams 5-0, playing extremely well. But Cleveland had to go to overtime in their game yesterday. And I'm watching this team in summer league play, and they just are going to need Sam Merrill, Sharif Cooper, and also Craig Porter Jr., I think, to play well here. And just think that Isaiah Mobley and Monty Bates here They just too up and down I mean have great games and then poor games here And having to play that overtime game is going to be tough for them I think Houston has the better team in the half sets And what I've noticed a lot of times, the difference between summer league teams and NBA teams is NBA players finish. When they have like three on twos, they score 95% or higher on the break here. And this Houston team is close to doing that. They take advantage when they have numbers, and I think that they're able to close here better than Cleveland and being a little fresher. Both teams really only play like eight guys in the semifinals. I think it's going to make a difference here. I'm taking the points here. The Houston Rockets plus the points are the wrong team favored in the NBA Summer League final tonight.”
Cavaliers 99, Rockets 78 — Cleveland beat Houston 99-78 in the 2023 NBA Summer League championship game on July 17, 2023; Rockets lost by 21, well outside +3 (ESPN Summer League scoreboard).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Rays minus 118 versus the Rangers with the takeback being plus 100. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Texas Rangers are a team that I'm keeping my eye on in the second half. With DeGrom out for the season, I'm expecting this team, they're starting pitching issues to catch up with them if they don't trade for another elite starter. Dane Dunning, one of the reasons why, just skeptical. Look at him. If you look at his numbers, great. 8-2, 284 ERA. He also has a 5-0 home record. But he's the biggest regression candidate, in my opinion, in baseball with an expected ERA up to 472. He's stranded 77.8% of his base runners, which is extremely lucky. And his strikeout rate of 15.9% is one of the lowest among Major League Baseball's qualifying starting pitchers. Going to face off against Shane McClanahan. Talked about him many times here. About the last guy you want to face here, McClanahan, 11-1 with a .253 RA. Found success against right-handed hitters despite being a left-handed pitcher. Righties hitting just 194 against him. And also Tampa Bay, they use their staff more than any other team here, Kevin Cash. But they're coming out of the all-star break, and I think that rest, that four-day rest, is huge for them. So I think the Rays here, they'll have all hands on deck in the bullpen here. I think they expose the Rangers here tonight in blowout fashion. Look out for the Rangers. I think there's going to be a lot of regression. I anticipate we'll be going against them early and often in the second half. So the Tampa Bay Rays, money line, minus 118, blowout special.”
TEX 3, TB 2 — Rangers beat Rays 3-2 on a walk-off wild pitch after Aroldis Chapman earned his first Texas win; Rays moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Marlins minus 104 versus the Cardinals with the take back being minus 112. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, you probably won't find a more inconsistent pitcher in baseball than Myles Mikolas. The St. Louis Cardinals started the season with a 5-97 ERA. the first month. Then all of a sudden he goes 3-0 with a 189 ERA in May. Then back to 0-4 in June with a 6-0-7 ERA. And now he's 1-0 with a shutout and a tough start against the Marlins lineup in July leading up to the deadline. For him to find some consistency on the mound, I just don't see it happening today. He had a really good start against the Nationals in his last outing with three perfect innings, but that fell apart due to poor weather, and he was shut down just 34 pitches in. Now he has to come home on three days rest and face a Marlins team that hit him all over the park for four runs in six innings. Should have been seven or eight runs a few days ago. Now we've got Jesus Lozardo, who is undoubtedly the most underrated pitcher in baseball this season. Lozardo, 8-5 with a .329 ERA. But if you look back at this guy's last nine starts, he's thrown 53 innings with just 16 earned runs, allowed 66 strikeouts, and only nine walks. So Marlins with Lozardo on the hill here, I mean, this guy is really good. He had three shutouts in three of the last four starts before the all-star break here. He's contending for the top guy on the Marlins staff, and I think he's the guy here. You want to back here against a hapless Cardinals team that might start trading away their stars soon here. We're going to go the Miami Marlins. Moneyline minus 104. Level 2 lock.”
STL 6, MIA 4 — Cardinals beat Marlins 6-4 as Nolan Arenado drove in four runs; Marlins moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“the fanduel.com line on this one the columbia lions minus three versus the argonauts uh and then the money line on this one is columbia money line minus 170 versus toronto with take back being plus 145 let us know how we're looking at this one break this one down for us lee okay so british columbia can play some defense wow uh they've allowed a opponents in the three games, just seven points per game, and just 211 yards per game through their games, which has been incredible. In fact, last week they had seven sacks, an interception, shutout. I mean, just totally dominated the game. You know, with baseball, not many night games tonight, so rare Monday night game here. Their offense isn't bad either. Vernon Adams Jr., remember him from the West Coast? He played at Eastern Washington, then played for a year at Oregon. 237 passing yards last week, two touchdowns here. He's a guy that just doesn't make many mistakes here. The way I see this game, I think it's going to be a great situational play because I just think that their opponent, not going to muster much there, also better special teams I think the best play here is Moneyline. We're going to go with the British Columbia Lions here Moneyline Hidden Gem CFL action tonight Boom, there it is right there Rolling with the Moneyline on the British Columbia Lions 3-0 going up against the Toronto Argonauts”
Toronto 45, BC 24 — Toronto Argonauts beat BC Lions 45-24 on July 3, 2023 (final quarter scores 7-18-10-10 for Toronto vs 7-7-3-7 for BC); the Lions moneyline lost outright (CFL.ca official schedule).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Giants, minus 146 versus Seattle with the take-back being plus 124. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so for the Hill tonight, pitching for Seattle, Brian Wu. Pitching Cal Poly, just a 23-year-old here. 1-1, 4-30, 70-year-old. He had a rough start. His first game didn't last a couple innings, but since then has been good, but really has not faced all the greatest competition. And I just thought that that Seattle team, the last two days, they had to claw and fight to win those final two games against Tampa Bay. You would have thought that they won the World Series. They were that excited after both games. Now they're going to take on a Giants team, which lost the last two games, won the first game, lost the last two games of Mets. I think they going to be heaping mad here Logan Webb is going to be on the mound here 26 7 record 343 ERA here but he has pitched extremely well That right extremely well when he faced Seattle here Just absolutely dominated them, and I think that's going to be the difference here. just controlled them almost every single outing here. So even in his last outing, had some bad luck in that game against the Blue Jays. So I think he'll bounce back here. Mariners, 7 for 38 with four extra bags, sits in a home run against Webb. Just had not been able to figure out what he has here. And he has a 231 ERA at Oracle Park here. So I think he's going to be ready to go here. Mariners bullpen taxed a little bit. They had to pitch most of their bullpen while San Francisco was able to save their closer. He did not pitch in yesterday's game. So we're going to go with a blowout special. We expect San Francisco to get back on track here like the San Francisco Giants over Seattle.”
Seattle 6, San Francisco 5 — Seattle Mariners beat San Francisco Giants 6-5 on July 3, 2023, scoring 4 runs in the ninth off Camilo Doval; the Giants moneyline lost (ESPN scoreboard).
“FanDuel.com line, Joey Chestnut over-under 73.5 hot dogs in the hot dog eating contest on the 4th of July. Lee, break it down. All right, so over the last decade, it seems like he's gone over 70 hot dogs almost every single year. Except for last year, 863 hot dog, buns in 10 minutes, and he was interrupted. There was a protester. That was maybe the most exciting part of the hot dog eating contest last year. He put him in a chokehold, comes back this year looking to continue his dominance. He can't bet $100 to win just $2.50. that would be the mortal lock of the century. That's too easy here. You don't want to risk that much in case something happens. Might choke on a hot dog. But here is where I think you know he 39 years old I think he had a sweet spot a few years ago Last year only ate 63 hot dogs And I think he going to be in the mid to upper 60s here 73 and a half. I think that number is just too high. I know he wants to prove something, but it's going to be hot. I even checked the weather here. Everything. You've got to check everything if you're wager. It's going to be 84 degrees here. I had my two daughters go to it a couple years ago, four or five years ago. And they said it is hot out there. I think it's going to affect them a little bit. So, I mean, there's so much time. They take like 45 minutes before it starts introducing everyone. These guys, I mean, I think it's too much. He's 65. I think it's still an amazing accomplishment. We're going to go under 73 and a half hot dogs for Joey Chestnut here. That is going to be a level two lock.”
Joey Chestnut won the 2023 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest by eating 62 hot dogs and buns, well under the 73.5 line (Wikipedia, sourced to contest results). (62 hot dogs and buns)
“I expect Griffin here to withstand an early onslaught. he's going to wear his opponent down and bring maximum pain to Morales here as he earns a decision win. We're not going to take him here to win the fight. We're going to take him here to win by a decision plus 400. So he can't win by TKO or submission. Got to win by decision plus 400.”
Michael Morales beat Max Griffin by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov on July 1, 2023 — Griffin lost, so 'Griffin to win by decision' busts (Wikipedia).
“I mean, he didn't even throw for 200 yards in that game here. So I expect them to give the Stallions some trouble here. I don't know if the Stallions are going to cover, But I think the best play here is the under 45 and a half points here. Hidden gem USFL championship game, Birmingham Stallions, Pittsburgh Maulers under 45 and a half total points.”
Birmingham 28, Pittsburgh 12 (40 total) — Birmingham beat Pittsburgh 28-12 (40 combined points) in the 2023 USFL Championship Game on July 1, 2023, under the 45.5 total (Wikipedia).
“He's going to be on the big stage. At home, the Mariners actually hit worse, .228 batting average. I mean usually teams hit better at home Not the case Rays hit on the road here Even better at night here So I know they never faced a new starter here for the Mariners-Miller here, but I think the line's low here. I'm going to lay the small spot here. We're going to go with a level two lock here to end the week here. Tampa Bay Rays over the Seattle Mariners. The Tampa Bay Rays keep on rolling. And the Seattle Mariners, as I mentioned, looking for the all-star break, trying to regroup try to refigure things out, recolaborate, calibrate, whatever you want to call it. They got to redo something, right? Tampa Bay versus Seattle. Lock of the day. Level two lock. Remember the FanDuel.com line on that one. Tampa Bay minus 142 versus Seattle.”
SEA 4, TB 15 — Rays scored 15 unanswered runs to beat the Mariners 15-4 on June 30, 2023; Rays ML cashes (ESPN box score).
“And if LeBron wants you, they're going to try to make it happen. I'm going to play Draymond Green plus 550 if he doesn't sign back with the Golden State Warriors, will be a member of the L.A. Lakers. Bet a little, win a whole lot.”
Draymond Green re-signed with the Golden State Warriors on a 4-year, $100 million deal announced July 8, 2023, not the Lakers (Wikipedia).
“You don't want to take the home team where they only have eight at-bats. You have nine full at-bats. L.A. Dodgers, minus one and a half runs, minus 110. Blowout special over the Colorado Rockies.”
COL 3, LAD 14 — Dodgers routed the Rockies 14-3 on June 29, 2023 (J.D. Martinez 4 hits incl. a homer in a 6-run 4th); the -1.5 spread covers easily (ESPN box score).
“I think this number is inflated. We're going to go under nine and a half wins for the Tennessee Volunteers. Maybe my strongest college football total. That's right. Level three lock.”
Tennessee went 8-4 in the regular season then beat Iowa 35-0 in the Citrus Bowl on Jan 1, 2024, finishing 9-4 overall, under the 9.5 season win-total line (ESPN schedule/results). (9-4 overall record)
“if he putts decent, I think that he's going to be a top 10 guy. Wouldn't shock me if he finishes top five, top three. So we're going to go with Hideki Matsuyama here, plus 220. Bet a little, win a whole lot in the Detroit Rocket Mortgage Classic that starts on Thursday morning.”
Hideki Matsuyama shot 75-68 (143) and missed the cut at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic, finishing well outside the top 10 (ESPN leaderboard). (143 (75-68), missed cut)
“versus the A's with a take-back being plus 114. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so just think that this is a great situational play, and I don't know, it's going to be too many times where I take the Oakland A's, but who would have thought back in April that the big, bad New York Yankees would be just slight favorites in any game or this series against the tanking Oakland Athletics. It is reality for the Yanks right now because this team is downright awful with a capital A. Without Aaron Judge, they just don't have it. I mean, since he went down on June 3rd, this is crazy. With that toe injury, the Yankees ranked dead last in runs scored at 3.15 per game, dead last in batting average, 197. No team ranked lower than 200, and dead last in on-base percentage. This team was already centered around Judge, but the drop-off between him and anyone else in the lineup is awful. Domingo Herman here starts for the Yankees with a 5-10 ERA and a 4-5 record. Herman has broken some Yankee records in a bad way. He is the only Yankee pitcher in franchise history to allow 17 or more runs while facing less than 40 batters in a two-game span. He shouldn't be in the majors right now, but they just don't have any other options. J Sears for the Athletics has actually been on a better run here than almost any pitcher in a long time for the A He 1 but his ERA is 4 which is respectable especially because they commit so many errors here especially in comparison to Hermann But his ERA at home is an even better 3.09. His recent form here is just spectacular. In his last seven starts since May 20th, Sears has a .288 ERA and just a .196 batting average against in 41 innings pitch leave the bullpens out of this one here the wrong starting pitcher is favored here oakland a's money line wrong team favorite oh there it is right there and yeah there's not too”
NYY 7, OAK 0 through 5 (final NYY 11, OAK 0) — Domingo German's perfect game had the Yankees up 7-0 over Oakland through 5 innings en route to an 11-0 win on June 28, 2023; the Athletics F5 moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Tampa Bay minus 152 versus Arizona with the take back being plus 128. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, there's a lot to like about the Tampa Bay Rays this year, obviously, but the Arizona Diamondbacks have been especially impressive as well. I think they have some short-term problems to worry about right now, though. The Diamondbacks, while they lead the NL West, have some serious starting pitching problems, especially depth-wise. After Zach Gallen and Merrill Kelly, the starting rotation drops off the map. Zach Davies and Ryan Nelson have tried to pick up the slack, but they're just not good enough. The even bigger problem for this team is Merrill Kelly went down with an injury in his last start, and he's now on the IL. That means Davies is being pushed into the second starter role despite having a 1-4 record with a 7.82 ERA in his last eight starts this year. Davies is ideally, in my opinion, a three or four guy in the rotation, but with Kelly's injury, he's pitching tonight. Here it is. Here's the kicker on short rest and short notice, which is never helpful to a pitcher struggling to get into a rhythm. Davies is starting at home tonight where he has had an 0-3 record and a 9-90 ERA. And he's facing a team with a winning record against teams with winning records. He's 0-3 with an ERA of 8-24. On the other side, Zach Elfin will oppose him for Tampa. Elfin has been one of the most surprising pitchers in baseball, in my opinion, after being the fifth starter for the Phillies the last couple years. he's become Tampa's number two or even their ace with a 9-3 record 335 ERA we know Elfin doesn't walk batters at all but what has been impressive for him is his K rate in his career 25 here he at a career high right now And when guys do make contact they hit him pretty hard But that has only happened to Elfin one or two times this year Take the situational advantage here. The Tampa Bay Rays blowout special over Arizona in the desert here. I think they win it easy. There it is right there. And you know, there was a time”
ARI 2, TB 3 — Rays beat the Diamondbacks 3-2 on June 28, 2023 on a 9th-inning Josh Lowe double; Rays ML cashes (ESPN box score).
“And Hill, like one of those guys that fits the bill here, against finesse pitchers, 288 batting average with 10 doubles and seven homers and just 111 at bats. Even if Hill escapes, you know, two to three Tatis matchups here, the Pirates bullpen ranks 24th in baseball in ERA and 26th ranked whip. Take Fernando Tatis to stay hot tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Over one and a half total bases, minus 135 for Fernando Tatis Jr. Hidden gem.”
Fernando Tatis Jr. went 0-for-5 with 0 total bases as the Pirates beat the Padres 9-4 on June 27, 2023, falling short of the 1.5 total-bases line (ESPN box score). (0-for-5, 0 TB)
“this Brewers lineup against the lefty, but they've had success here. A lot of it against Peterson in the past in his nine career innings of work against Milwaukee. Colton even higher 10.38 era with 11 hits and 10 runs allowed take the wrong team favorite here tonight in New York City Milwaukee Brewers money line plus 130 this is a gift wrong team favorite”
NYM 7, MIL 2 — Mets beat Brewers 7-2 on June 27, 2023; the Brewers ML busts (ESPN box score).
“You got the Boston Red Sox minus 130 favorites. Your Miami Marlins plus 110 on the take back. Red Sox 40 and 39 on the season. Marlins 45 and 34. They've been one of the better stories in baseball this year. But you don't think tonight's going to be their night, correct? I think it's going to be tough. Now, last year, about the only time I was backing the Marlins was when Sandy Alcantara was on the bump. This year, the 27-year-old, 2-6 record with a 5-0 ADRA, 1.25 whip in 15 outings this year. I mean, I'm watching him. And here's the problem with Sandy. It's not his velocity. It's not his location. He just, it seems like one inning dooms him every single outing. So it's in his head. And when it's in your head, going to a place like Fenway, tough place to all of a sudden recapture that magic here on the other side. Garrett Whitlock is not great. 27-year-old right-hander, 4-2 record, 4.50 ERA. but this line I think should be like 150, 160. Also went to the game on Saturday, watched all three games the Marlins had. They're squeaking by when they're winning. So not like they're pounding the ball here. You know, Boston is a tough, tough ballpark. The wins the dimensions Sometimes it takes a game or two to all of a sudden settle down here I don think Alcantara the former Cy Young Award winner is going to all of a sudden have a great performance here. And Boston, they've averaged 4.99 runs this year, seventh in Major League Baseball, hitting 268th in average here. So little things matter here. And I just think that even though the Marlins have been a great story. I've backed them early and often all year long. We identified them as one of the great stories this year so far. I think they go down here in Beantown here. We're going to win a blowout special. Boston Red Sox here over my Miami Marlins.”
BOS 1, MIA 10 — Marlins routed the Red Sox 10-1 on June 27, 2023 (19 hits); the Red Sox ML busts (ESPN box score).
“And if he has trouble with control, their bullpen is not very good here. I think LSU has a better lineup, hitting lineup, even though Florida went crazy yesterday. I just think that this is going to be LSU's game to lose here with Skeens and this other kid coming in the lefty out of the bullpen. I like LSU. Minus 130 tonight. College World Series, game three. Winner take all. LSU, low out special of the four games.”
LSU 18, Florida 4 — LSU beat Florida 18-4 on June 26, 2023, clinching Game 3 of the College World Series Finals and the national title; LSU ML cashes big (Wikipedia, 2023 Men's College World Series).
“Did not lose a game at home last year. Won every game pretty easy. I like Washington here. Over the nine wins. Minus 130 here. Hidden gem.”
Washington finished the 2023 season 14-1 (13 regular-season wins, Pac-12 title over Oregon, Sugar Bowl win over Texas, loss to Michigan in the CFP title game), well over the 9-win futures line (Wikipedia, 2023 Washington Huskies football). (14-1 overall record)
“minus 146 against the white socks at plus 124 first pitch tonight set for 9 38 p.m with the angels carrying in a 42 and 37 record while chicago 34 and 45 on the year what are we looking at for our lock of the day? Okay, so we all talk about when we watch the LA Angels, they're two stars. And talking about Mike Trout and Otani. These two guys are incredible. The rest of the lineup has not been great over the last couple of years, but it's been better this year. In fact, the other night when they scored 25 runs at Colorado and won 25 to 1, Otani, one for seven, one RBI. Trout was three for three, only one RBI. The rest of the lineup went crazy. And I think that they're going to continue winning here. I think that they facing a kid here for the White Sox nothing special And their starter Reed Detmers has been extremely good in this situation Pitching he was held back another day Pitching on five days rest, he has been really good. His ERA sitting at 366 over his career on five days rest. So didn't pitch yesterday, moved him back a day here. He has only 41 walks and 127 innings. And just think that this kid has looked good. When I've watched him in his last couple starts, fastball up a couple miles per hour. His slider a little bit sharper. Pitching ahead in the count. Getting that first strike in there here. And like I said, not walking that first batter. So important here. I think this line is low. I think this line should be 170, 180 here. White Sox have to travel across country to play this game here. Let's go with the LA Angels here to start off the week on Monday. Level one lock.”
LAA 2, CHW 1 — Angels beat White Sox 2-1 on a walk-off on June 26, 2023 (Trout/Ohtani); Angels ML cashes (ESPN box score).
“I think you're getting a lot of bets here on Bieber here because of the name recognition. But he's in a tough spot against an offense that is waiting, in my opinion, to break out. And Wade Miley is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball this year. The wrong team is favored Let go with the Milwaukee Brewers here Moneyline over the Cleveland Guardians How about that Opportunity on the Brewers at plus 122 because the Guardians at minus 144 are the wrong team favorites”
CLE 1, MIL 7 — Brewers beat Guardians 7-1 on June 23, 2023 (Willy Adames homered twice); Brewers ML cashes (ESPN box score).
“Boston Red Sox minus 118 against the White Sox of Chicago at plus 100. That one's going to be an 8-11 p.m. Eastern time first pitch on Friday night. What's the blowout going to look like, Lee? So the Red Sox have found a pitching prospect here to build around, I believe, in Brian Bellow. 24-year-old righty, had just a .409 career ERA over his 22 Major League Baseball starts, but he looks like a new guy in 2023. His ERA is down to .349, a 1.298 whip. He's never going to be a huge strikeout guy, but his sinker, which he throws about a third of the time, has helped force batters into a 59% chase rate and three or fewer earned runs and nine consecutive starts for the White Sox. Luis Galata essentially, in my opinion, waiting to be traded at this point. He had a strong June after two rough months to start the season. But those strong appearances to start the month came against the Yankees without judge, Miami and Seattle. He's given up far too much hard contact at 41.75 percent. And his strikeout rate is down to its lowest point since 2018. I'm not a big fan of either bullpens, but the White Sox offense has struggled so much this season that I think you'll see Boston take a high scoring game here. Let's go with the Boston Red Sox money line over the White Sox blowout special.”
CHW 1, BOS 3 — Red Sox beat White Sox 3-1 on June 23, 2023 (Brayan Bello pitched into the 7th); Red Sox ML cashes (ESPN box score).
“We're going to have for this one Justin Taffa, who's a minus 180 favorite against Austin Lane at plus 146. Lee, how did they get this one wrong with the wrong fighter favored? Well, crazy card here. So it starts at 1130. They have nine undercard fights. Not one has been canceled so far. So as long as none of these cards, early preliminary fights get canceled, starts as early as 1130. So if you're going out late tonight, you might want to set your alarm before 12 noon here. So this is the third fight of the main card that starts at 3 o'clock. Estimate about a 430, 445 start time here. In Jacksonville, Justin Badman Taffa takes on Austin Lane, 265-pound heavyweight division. 29 bad man Tafa fighting out of Australia comes in with a 6 overall record overall record here three and three in the UFC But it is six UFC fights This is a crazy stat Five of the opponents are already no longer in the UFC So they're always looking for for heavyweights and flyweights. That's the division, the weakest competition and least amount of fighters. Tafa coming off a nice KO of the legendary Parker Porter. in round one in February, which I believe in is the reason he's such a big favorite here. 35-year-old Jacksonville resident, Austin Lane here, played defensive end in the NFL for five years, including three for the Jags. He comes in with a 12-3 overall record, making his octagon debut. Lane fought on Dana White's contender series in 2018, but was defeated by the infamous former NFL player Greg Hardy. He realized he just wasn't ready for prime time, and he, as he was just too new to the MMA, went back to the regional grind for some much-needed experience. He now comes in with a string of finishes in his last six fights, including a first-round TKO over an undefeated fighter on his return to the Contender Series last year, while looking like a totally different fighter. I expect the local favorite here, Austin Lane, the underdog, to have the crowd heavily behind him as he uses his physical advantages, which include a six-inch height and reach advantage. I think he's going to take Tafa out, who by the end of this match will just be a bad man here. Let's go with a wrong fighter favorite, Austin Lane here over Justin, bad man Tafa.”
Austen Lane vs Justin Tafa at UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria (Jacksonville, June 24, 2023) was ruled a No Contest after an accidental eye poke ended the fight 0:29 into round 1 — no winner was declared, so the Austin Lane moneyline market voided (Wikipedia).
“plus eight here, and turnover differential. and first two games were 23-7 and 19-7 here. So we're going to go under 38.5 total points here. We're not going to take any team. So wrong team is favored. We're going under 38.5 total points.”
Pittsburgh 31, Michigan 27 (OT, 58 total) — Pittsburgh beat Michigan 31-27 in OT in their June 24, 2023 USFL playoff meeting (58 combined points), well over the 38.5 total; under busts (Wikipedia, 2023 USFL season).
“So people know Jillian Robertson maybe a little bit longer, know her well, but sometimes you've got to go with a more disciplined fighter here, the fighter that has the better path to win this game here. We're going to go with a blowout special. Tabitha Baby Shark Ricci here, money line, minus 130, over the savage Jillian Robertson.”
Tabatha Ricci beat Gillian Robertson by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) at UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria on June 24, 2023 in Jacksonville; Ricci moneyline covers (Wikipedia).
“And just think that this stallion team's better coached here, better special teams here, better quarterback. I'm laying the two and a half points. We're going all the way up on a Thursday. Level three lock, Birmingham Stallions over the New Orleans Breakers.”
Birmingham 47, New Orleans 22 — Birmingham routed New Orleans 47-22 in the USFL Conference Championship on June 25, 2023, easily covering -2.5 (Wikipedia, 2023 USFL season).
“He just exudes confidence. So we're going to take the one-and-a-half runs with the Philadelphia Phillies at home here tonight. Wrong team favored. I think they might have been upset the Atlanta Warriors tonight. Man, there it is right there. Philadelphia Phillies starting to go on a little bit of a surge, You know, starting to see a little bit of that magic that they had a season ago. Coming in on this one, 38-34. That's the team we're rolling with in this matchup, the Braves versus the Phillies. Again, FanDuel.com line on that one. The Braves minus one and a half runs, plus 115. And the Phillies plus one and a half runs, minus 138.”
PHI 2, ATL 4 — Braves beat Phillies 4-2 on June 20, 2023, a 2-run Atlanta margin; Philadelphia +1.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“I expect to bounce back here from him, from a Rangers team that needs to be taken seriously in the American League. Texas Rangers money line, minus 134 tonight. Low-out special.”
CHW 7, TEX 6 — White Sox beat Rangers 7-6 on June 20, 2023; Texas moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I think both of these pitchers are being overrated here with both teams coming off a close series where they use their top relievers here. This total I think is going to fly over the seven and a half just as you flying into Hawaii here Houston Astros New York Mets over seven and a half runs plus 100 level two lock”
HOU 4, NYM 2 — Astros beat Mets 4-2 on June 20, 2023 (6 combined runs), under the 7.5 total; over busts (ESPN box score).
“San Jose State, Wyoming, Colorado State, which is now trying. They're in the middle before we built here. Three and a half wins. Are you kidding me here? Wrong team favorite here. The White Rainbows win more than three and a half games next year. Wrong team favorite. There it is right there. And, yeah, the Mountain West Conference is not a very strong conference when it comes to football action. So all those teams having to travel, especially there, and they get a little caught up in the Hawaii atmosphere and how could you not, right? It's beautiful. So, yeah, I can understand them having an opportunity to get over that 3.5 win total, especially with all those games they're playing at home. So there you go. That starts us off with a little early college football action. WTF, wrong team, favorite, talking about the Hawaii Rainbows over 3.5 wins, minus 110.”
Hawaii finished 5-8 in the 2023 season, over the 3.5 season win-total line (Wikipedia, 2023 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors football team). (5-8 record)
“Buy low and you don't want to sell high here What you want to do is you want to take St. Louis Cardinals I think they're going to win probably like the next 7 out of 9 8 out of 10 games here St. Louis Cardinals minus a small spot here blowout special over the Washington Nationals. I'm just waiting for the Cardinals to get on the roll, right? I'm just waiting for them to get cooking and start playing St. Louis Cardinal-type baseball. Again, 29-43 is not what I would have expected if you had told me that's how the Cardinals were going to start off their 2023 season. But that's where they are. But at some point, they're going to get on that roll, as you mentioned, potentially, you know, 7 out of 9, something like that, 7 out of 10. Totally could see that happening. They just got that built in on them. That's their DNA. FanDuel.com line on this one. Cardinals versus Nationals. We're going Cardinals minus 154 with the take back for the Nationals being plus 130.”
WSH 6, STL 8 — Cardinals beat Nationals 8-6 on June 19, 2023; St. Louis moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“It's going to be tough. So it might be close for a while here, but I think Minnesota pulls away late here. We're going to go with a level one lock to start the week here. Minnesota Twins over the Boston Red Sox. There you go. Level one lock gets us started on this week. Again, Twins and Red Sox. Lock of the day. FanDuel.com line on this one. The Twins minus 136 versus Red Sox.”
MIN 3, BOS 9 — Red Sox beat Twins 9-3 on June 19, 2023; Minnesota moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I think this line is priced wrong. So let's stay away from the aside here. Let's just play the over 43 and a half in the Birmingham Stallions against the Memphis Showboats who need the game to get in the playoffs on four on Saturday, 4 p.m. Eastern here. Level one lock.”
Birmingham 27, Memphis 20 (47 total) — Birmingham beat Memphis 27-20 (47 combined points) on June 17, 2023, over the 43.5 total (Wikipedia, 2023 USFL season).
“I think Tampa Bay takes a series opener play the 110 money line here on Tampa Bay Level two lock”
SD 2, TB 6 — Rays beat Padres 6-2 on June 16, 2023; Tampa Bay moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“I think he presents here a more diversified attack, and his iron jaw, I think, nullifies the best weapon of cannonier, his punching power. Normally, it's not recommended to even think about fighting a killer gorilla, but we're going to do that here, and we're going to take the favorite, minus 122. I think this line should be like minus 150, 160. Marvin, the Italian dream, Vittori here, he going to dream his way to a victory in this one Level three lock”
Jared Cannonier beat Marvin Vettori by unanimous decision (49-45, 49-45, 48-46) at UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier on June 17, 2023; Vettori moneyline busts (Wikipedia).
“I think you're going to see a 3-2 or most of 4-2 game at Target Field tonight. You might be able to make it by the time they close to pick up a few things at Target if you need to afterwards. We're going with a level one lock under eight runs, minus 122, Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers.”
MIN 4, DET 8 — Tigers beat Twins 8-4 (12 combined runs), over the 8-run total; under busts (ESPN box score).
“three for eight in his career in the matchup here. So I think he's going to have plenty of work tonight here and get it done. Take the over one-and-a-half bases here. One of my favorite players in both leagues, Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Atlanta Braves, over one and a half total bases, minus 125, level two lock.”
Ronald Acuna Jr. went 0-for-2 with 0 total bases as the Braves beat the Rockies 8-3 on June 15, 2023, under the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (0-for-2, 0 TB)
“I think Zuma Gulov has better stand-up, better ground and pound here, and he has a better cardio makeup here. We're going to go with Zalgis Zuma Gulov here. money line here level three lock All the way up right there on Zuma Gulaf And normally I like to break down nicknames but when you got a name like Zuma Gulaf who needs a nickname at this point right So there you go. Level 3 Lock. We're rolling with Zuma Gulaf, minus 172,”
Felipe Bunes withdrew from his UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier bout during fight week over a flagged drug test; Zhumagulov was rescheduled a week later against Joshua Van, so the Zhumagulov-Bunes moneyline never had a bout to resolve (Wikipedia, UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier).
“If someone gets hurt, they've got like four outfielders. They bring in guys to pitch, run, to play defense in the eighth and the ninth inning. take the Demon Deacons to win the College World Series. Coming out of Winston-Salem, North Carolina, I like the Demon Deacons here, plus 270. Bet a little, win a whole lot.”
LSU won the 2023 Men's College World Series, defeating Florida in the best-of-three final; Wake Forest, the #1 seed, was eliminated in the semifinal bracket and finished third, so the futures bet busts (Wikipedia 2023 Men's College World Series).
“He's played this many, many times here. So if he wins this year, he'd be only the second Southern California native here to win this event. I don't think he's going to win it, but top 20 finishes, I think there's a real good chance. We'll take him here, plus the money here. Betalette will win a whole lot on Sahith. They got a lot of finishing the top 20. The Masters, not the Masters. He did well in the Masters, but the U.S. Open, which starts tomorrow morning. You know, that's awesome because we had another play, Bet a Little Win A Lot, on the U.S. Open and finishing in the top 20. So we could take the same tournament and win it multiple ways, right? I mean, you want to talk about Bet a Little Win A Lot multiple times? That is a win-win. I like that. So there you go. Multiple actions when it comes to the U.S. Open. Multiple guys that we're looking at to finish in the top 20. But that one, again, Sahit Sagala plus 260.”
Sahith Theegala finished tied for 27th at +2 (282) at the 2023 U.S. Open, outside the top 20 (ESPN 2023 U.S. Open leaderboard). (T27, +2 (282))
“which isn't very good. Take the Diamondbacks to keep rolling here tonight. Thought I'd never say it here. The Arizona Diamondbacks money line, minus 132, level two lock.”
4-3 — Phillies beat Diamondbacks 4-3 in 10 innings on June 14, 2023, so the Diamondbacks moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with Justin Rose here just to finish in the top 20 here. I think this is one of the plays that you can follow for the entire, you know, tournament here. So bet a little, win a lot, Justin Rose to finish in the top 20. I'll tell you right now, man, I know that, you know, nothing is ever easy, but I look at this one and I feel like this is very reasonable, right? This is one of these bets that I make and I feel pretty comfortable when I walk away on this one just because, again, Justin Rose is a really good golfer, obviously a top 20 guy right now as far as ranking, and I think that finishing in the top 20 is very reasonable for Justin Rose. So I like the way we get things started on this little bet a little, win a lot. U.S. Open action gets you a little early play as far as the U.S. Open goes. Again, FanDuel.com line on that one. Justin Rose plus 135 to finish in the top 20.”
Justin Rose missed the cut at the 2023 U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club, finishing outside the top 20 (ESPN 2023 U.S. Open leaderboard).
“he should be able to throw a couple, at least two, maybe three or four shots on goal here. So I'm going to take the over one and a half shots on goal for the Duke tonight in game five. Anthony Duclair of the Florida Panthers to record over one and a half shots on goal minus 152. Hidden gem.”
9-3 — Anthony Duclair recorded 3 shots on goal for the Panthers in Stanley Cup Final Game 5 (Golden Knights 9, Panthers 3) on June 13, 2023, over the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (Duclair 3 SOG)
“and I'm not going to worry about its pitching staff backing it up. Take the over four-and-a-half runs from the Cincinnati Reds here. Cincinnati Reds team total over four-and-a-half minus 120.”
5-4 — Reds beat Royals 5-4 on June 13, 2023, with Cincinnati scoring 5 runs, over the 4.5 team-total line (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with the Miami Marlins here. Yeah, not the Florida Marlins. The Miami Marlins here, plus 110. Wrong team favorite.”
8-1 — Mariners beat Marlins 8-1 on June 12, 2023, so the Marlins moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I mean, everyone is chipping in here. This Oakland team, they're going to come down to earth here. Blowout special. Tampa Bay lay the one-and-a-half run. easy winner tonight over Oakland. There you go. There you go. The Oakland A's will not have that five-game win streak extended. Tampa Bay is a much better team than Oakland. Tampa Bay is showing what a small market team should look like, right? It shows that you can actually play some good ball and still be a small market team, which the A's claim to be, but that's a whole other story for another day. There you go. We're going to roll with the Tampa Bay Rays over the Oakland A's. Again, FanDuel.com line on this one. Tampa Bay Rays, minus one and a half runs, minus 162”
4-3 — Athletics beat Rays 4-3 on June 12, 2023; Tampa Bay lost outright, missing the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“He's going to have double-digit points. Six points. I think this is going to close at seven, seven and a half here. We're going to go over six points. Contavious Caldwell Pope here. Level two lock to start the week on Monday.”
94-89 — Nuggets beat Heat 94-89 in NBA Finals Game 5 (clinching the title) on June 12, 2023; Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scored 11 points, over the 6-point line (ESPN box score). (Caldwell-Pope 11 pts)
“We're going to go with a blowout special. So right out of the gate here on Friday, New York Yankees, a money line minus 168 over the hated Boston Red Sox.”
3-2 — Red Sox beat Yankees 3-2 on June 9, 2023, so the Yankees moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I expect them to keep it going here Neither team has much of a quarterback Pretty decent defenses here This line at 41 I think it going to close maybe 39 40 Get on it now. Under 41.5, Michigan Panthers, Pittsburgh Maulers, level one lock.”
19-7 — Pittsburgh Maulers beat Michigan Panthers 19-7 (26 combined points) on June 10, 2023, well under the 41.5 total (Wikipedia 2023 USFL season results).
“It's minus 110 either way you look at it. Lee, break this one down for us. If you saw Memphis early in the season, they were absolutely horrendous. They started off 0-3, but they've won five straight here. The defense has had some just incredible, some weird plays where they've gotten some turnovers, and that can happen over the short run. They're 5-3 here. They actually won the first game. So I think New Orleans is going to be primed for this game. They're sitting at 5-3. Every team, 6-2 or 5-3 in division. So everyone's alive. What we've seen, what's the difference with New Orleans? Johnny Dixon, South Florida product, played at Ohio State. He has really come on. He's probably the biggest part of the breakers offense the last couple weeks here. I expect New Orleans here to break this five-game winning streak of Memphis. The Stages Memphis is not that good. This division is going to stay bunched up here. We're going to go with the New Orleans Breakers, 5-3, as a pick-em over the 5-3 Memphis Showboats here. Level 2 lock.”
31-3 — New Orleans Breakers beat Memphis Showboats 31-3 on June 10, 2023, so the Breakers moneyline cashes (Wikipedia 2023 USFL season results).
“This series is going six or seven games. This is not a five-game series here. I'm taking the three points here. Wrong team favored. Miami Heat plus the three and a half over the Denver Nuggets tonight.”
108-95 — Nuggets beat Heat 108-95 in NBA Finals Game 4 on June 9, 2023 (Heat lost by 13), so Miami +3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“So I think the perfect fit and the team with the need and a way to be able to create some cap room is going to be the Kansas City Chiefs here. Bet a little, win a lot. We're going to go with DeAndre Hopkins going to the Kansas City Chiefs. I think that's where he ends up, and it's going to happen in the next couple weeks. Yeah, thanks a lot, Lee. Thanks a lot. As a guy that covers the Raiders, as a guy that covers the Raiders, I know damn well the Chiefs don't need no more weapons, and he would be a perfect fit. You're spot on about that. He'd be a perfect fit. Hell, I'd be a perfect fit in Kansas City if I'm playing with Patrick Mahomes. So, yeah, there you go. They don't have that big-time wide receiver, but they won the Super Bowl, and then all of a sudden they upgrade with DeAndre Hopkins. Again, it makes all the sense in the world. I could totally see it happening. I know that DeAndre Hopkins would love to be playing with Patrick Mahomes, and, yeah, I could see the Chiefs making that happen. Again, the Chiefs plus 300 right there, FanDuel.com lying on that.”
DeAndre Hopkins signed a two-year contract with the Tennessee Titans on July 24, 2023, not the Chiefs, so the futures bet busts (Wikipedia, citing reporting on the signing).
“Once he gets him, takes him to the ground. Much better wrestler. Tom Nelson may not get up here. We're going to go with a blowout special in the UFC. Blake Builder, L. Animal, gets the job done on Saturday night. There you go. I'm just caught up on the nicknames, man. I like the animal going up against the monster. I mean, that sounds like a hell of a storyline right there. But a lot of fun. Little UFC action blowout special. Again, the animal builder, minus 260 versus the monster, Nelson.”
Kyle Nelson defeated Blake Bilder by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC 289 on June 10, 2023, so the Bilder moneyline busts (Wikipedia UFC 289 results table).
“That's obviously going to play well against a left-handed pitcher that struggles with righties. I think the wrong team is favored here. Take the Chicago Cubbies here on the money line. Wrong team favored. Yep, I don't think Mike Trout's going to have another record day tonight. Right. I don't expect that either, and it's hard to sweep teams like you mentioned. And, again, man, the Cubs, they're in a little struggle, man. 26 and 35 coming into this one. They're struggling a little bit there. And the Angels, I've got to give them credit for being 33 and 30 so far on the season. I don't know how sustainable that is. I don't know if they're going to be able to hold on to Eltoni in the long run, but at least they're putting their best foot forward. Let's put it like that. But don't expect them to get that dub today. Again, wrong team favorite. Looking at the Angels, minus 136. Cubs take back, plus 116.”
3-1 — Angels beat Cubs 3-1 on June 8, 2023, so the Cubs moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“This is absolutely a hidden gem. I'm taking it all day and all night. Lamont Wade Jr. of the San Francisco Giants here to record over one and a half bases, minus 125, hidden gem.”
5-4 — LaMonte Wade Jr. went 2-for-5 with 2 total bases in Giants 5-4 win over Rockies on June 7, 2023, over the 1.5 total bases line (ESPN box score). (Wade Jr. 2-for-5, 2 TB)
“Over 11 runs, minus 118. Reds versus Dodgers. Break this one down for us, Lee. So the total is really high. But it's high for a reason here, Q. First, the weather is in favor of some runs. The wind is blowing out to right field at Great American Park, which is one of the most friendly hitting parks in the league. Second is Noah Syndergaard problem for the Dodgers. This team needs starting pitching in the worst way, and it's largely due to Syndergaard's falloff. He's 1-4 with a 6.54 ERA, and that includes a 6.86 ERA in five starts in May. Just about the only good thing here is he has done his avoid walks. He ranks in the 96th percentile there. Otherwise, he ranks in the bottom 10th percentile in strikeout rate, batting average against, expected batting average against, and more. The other issue for L.A. here is bullpen. They missing a ton of guys due to injuries right now Used to be they had one of the best bullpens They were loaded They would just bring guys up from the minors I mean these guys would be starters or bullpen aces for other teams and they'd stick them in the bullpen. But 477 reliever ERA. Ranks, get this, I can't remember ever in the last 50 years, 26 in all of baseball. So a lot of the same issues here plagued the Cincinnati Reds. Brandon Williamson starts. He's been solid, but he's facing a Dodgers offense that can crush lefties. He's put up 69 runs in the last 11 road games, dating back to early May. Williamson has some good numbers here so far this year, but just hasn't faced any offense close to L.A. here. He has starts against Colorado, the Cubs, the Cardinals, and the Brewers so far. So if you look at last night's high-scoring, high-leverage game, both of these teams used a ton of really valuable bullpen arms in that one, and I don't expect those guys to be of any help today. Take the overruns here. 11 Cincinnati Reds, L.A. Dodgers, level two lock. Boom, that's wild. A level two lock right there, over 11 runs.”
8-6 — Reds beat Dodgers 8-6 on June 7, 2023 (14 combined runs), over the 11-run total (ESPN box score).
“one team if they down by five six seven points they got to start fouling here Stay in the game here So I think this is the game that goes over here and how big do i like it it a level three lock whoa level three lock all the way up to go over the total right there of 214 right there the heat and nuggets game three action”
109-94 — Nuggets beat Heat 109-94 in NBA Finals Game 3 on June 7, 2023 (203 combined points), under the 214 total (ESPN box score).
“Take the under four-and-a-half strikeouts here, hidden gem. Tell you what, I like this matchup. Early June, Mets and Braves, you know the expectations of both teams, right? And we remember how the seasons all shake out and, you know, the race to the finish at the end of the season. And games like this are ones that are exciting. So not only is it an exciting game to watch just in general, but to have a little player prop bet on it as well makes it that much more intense. So Carlos Carrasco right there, again, the Mets pitcher under four-and-a-half strikeouts versus the Braves. That's the FanDuel.com line on that one. Hidden gem here on Locked on Bets.”
ATL 6, NYM 4 — Carlos Carrasco struck out 4 batters (5.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER) as the Mets lost to the Braves 6-4 on June 6, 2023; the Under 4.5 strikeouts covers (ESPN box score). (Carlos Carrasco: 4 strikeouts)
“Plus 280 to be the high score in Game 3? I love it. Bet a little, win a whole lot. Jimmy Butler, high score, Game 3 NBA Finals.”
Nikola Jokic outscored Jimmy Butler 32-28 in NBA Finals Game 3 on June 7, 2023 (Denver won 109-94); Butler was not the high scorer (ESPN box score). (Jokic 32 pts, Butler 28 pts)
“Give me the Red Sox. This line, I think they should be like a 115-120 favorite. Wrong team favorite. Boston Red Sox here. Money line. They get the job done. Oh, there it is right there. The Gardos and the Red Sox. A little WTF action rolling with Boston to take down the Guardians. Of course, the FanDuel.com line on that one, the Guardians minus 116, but the take back is plus 104 for the Boston Red Sox.”
CLE 4, BOS 5 — Boston Red Sox beat the Cleveland Guardians 5-4 on June 6, 2023; the Red Sox moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Let's go Bam out of bio, plus 650. bet a little, win a whole lot to win the NBA Finals MVP. There it is right there.”
Nikola Jokic was unanimously voted 2023 NBA Finals MVP, not Bam Adebayo (Wikipedia 2023 NBA Finals page).
“versus the Royals with the take back being plus one and a half runs, minus 142. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so what you have here is you have a couple of the trends that I follow that, I mean, if you just play this trend over the long run, you're going to make a lot of money. Team coming off a hot streak on the road, long road trip, first game back to public, all in on them continuing winning. It'll be easy. Well, Miami Marlins are hot right now. Won seven of the last ten. They're four games above .500 for the first time for the longest time I can remember. Maybe, I think they even ended up the time that they ended up going to the playoffs during COVID, that COVID year. They were right around .500. So they're playing at a high level. They still have some major injuries. They're going to go tonight with Braxton Garrick, 1-2 with a .422 ERA. Now, he's pitched better of late, but his expected ERA is almost a point higher. facing a Kansas City team that actually can hit. I think they're going to get enough runs. And then how about this? Miami, what do the Marlins do great? They win one run games, lead the league, and it's not even close. So you're asking them to win by at least two or more runs after a long road trip on the West Coast finish in Oakland late yesterday afternoon. I don't see it here. I'm going to take the one-and-a-half runs here in the Kansas City Royals. wrong team favorite”
MIA 9, KC 6 — Miami Marlins beat the Kansas City Royals 9-6 on June 5, 2023, a margin of -3 for Kansas City vs the +1.5 line; the Royals bust (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Florida Panthers tonight to upset the Vegas Golden Knights on the road. Level two lock to start the week. We're going with the Florida Panthers tonight over your Vegas Golden Knights. There it is right there. And then we'll really have a series, right? I mean, we've got a series in the NBA finals. Is this knotted up at one? And we always say that the series doesn't really begin or the finals don't really begin until a road team wins. And so there you go. Florida's pulling this one out tonight. Then, boom, we have a series. It'll be all knotted up at one and some fantastic stuff. Again, the Vegas Golden Knight and the Florida Panthers. FanDuel.com line on that. The Golden Knights minus 140. The Panthers plus 116.”
VGK 7, FLA 2 — Vegas Golden Knights beat the Florida Panthers 7-2 in Stanley Cup Final Game 2 on June 5, 2023; the Panthers moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“We're rolling two or more dunks plus 680. That's the FanDuel.com line on that as far as we're paying attention to dunks in the first quarter of tonight's NBA Finals.”
Only one dunk occurred in the 1st quarter of NBA Finals Game 1 (Aaron Gordon, assisted by Nikola Jokic, at 9:27) -- short of the 2+ needed (ESPN play-by-play). (1 dunk in Q1 (Gordon, assist Jokic))
“I going to back the Red Sox here to get back on track here behind the race and their only good pitcher Boston Red Sox Money line, minus 172 over the Cincinnati Reds. Blowout special.”
BOS 8, CIN 2 — Boston Red Sox beat the Cincinnati Reds 8-2 on June 1, 2023; the Red Sox moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Hey, maybe someone else from Miami will pick it up. But just think that Caleb Martin under 15 and a half points here. Wrong player favorite.”
DEN 104, MIA 93 — Caleb Martin scored 3 points in NBA Finals Game 1 (Denver 104, Miami 93), well under the 15.5 line; the Under covers (ESPN box score). (Caleb Martin: 3 points)
“Level unlock. Denver Nuggets tonight minus a nine over the Miami Heat.”
DEN 104, MIA 93 — Denver beat Miami 104-93 in NBA Finals Game 1, a margin of +11 vs the -9 line; the Nuggets cover (ESPN box score).
“Wrong team favored. We're going with the Brew Crew today, Milwaukee Brewers, plus one and a half runs, minus 120 versus Toronto.”
TOR 2, MIL 4 — Milwaukee Brewers beat the Toronto Blue Jays 4-2 on May 31, 2023, a margin of +2 vs the +1.5 line; the Brewers cover (ESPN box score).
“So Philadelphia Phillies, first five innings, money line, minus 142. Blowout special over the New York Mets.”
The Mets led the Phillies 4-1 through five innings (2 runs in the 3rd, 2 in the 4th) en route to a 4-1 final; the Phillies first-5-innings moneyline busts (ESPN box score). (NYM 4, PHI 1 through 5)
“Let's talk about Nikola Djokic, the Joker, right? We know him as the Joker, and he is a triple-double machine. FanDuel.com line on this, the Joker minus 110. Then he'll average a triple-double. That means double digits in points, double digits in rebounds, double digits in assists. Again, lock of the day, the Joker minus 110. They'll average a triple-double. Lee, break this one down for us. Yes, so tomorrow I'll give you my selection on the game or the total of the game. But this is something like the baseball season. You can follow every game. You can follow every game, whether it's a four, five, six, or seven-game series. And I love the Joker. I think he's the best player right now in basketball, hands down. He makes his teammates better. He has had his way. Think about it. I mean, look at some of the teams that he's going against. Got to go against Minnesota. Minnesota, they were without. Yep, that's right. They're two best centers in the first series. One against Phoenix. Phoenix. I mean, are you kidding me? Phoenix plays no defense at all. DeAndre Ayton, he just looks disinterested. He's not going to give you much of an effort. And then the Lakers, what happened in that series? It got so bad, they ended up moving Ruhachimura on him and the Joker. I mean, it just didn't work. AD, I know, patrolling the middle, it helped out a little. Some of the games after that first game were close, but no dice. Now they're going to face the Miami Heat and the number two defense in the NBA. And who do they have who's going to be all over them, almost entirely the entire series Bam out of Bayou Bam offense has been up and down but his defense rock solid I don know why He is so underappreciated Everyone talks about this guy and that guy I think he might be the best defensive center in the NBA. Here's a guy that is going to be, I mean, you talk about hustle. He doesn't stop. He rarely comes out. So, yeah, do the Heat have backup centers that can guard him? No. But he's going to get his double digits and points. He's going to average 25, 30 points in the series. He's probably going to be 11, 12, 13 rebounds a game because he's going to play 43, 44 minutes a night. But assists, I think Miami's going to throw some different stuff at him. And having the best maybe defensive center in the NBA, I think he's going to average 8.5, maybe 9 assists. Tough to average over 10 assists here. And I think Denver will also use their bench a little bit more against the smaller Miami teams. So I'm going to go with the under, under, that's right, under points, triple-double here for the Joker here. I don't know if Miami's going to win this game. Also, one more thing to look at, the total. The total of these other games were anywhere. The first game was 222 to 228. This one's starting at 219. As we saw, the Miami total last game was 205 points. They might end up with a 207, 208 total. So less possessions means less scoring, less assists here. Let's go with the under triple-double here. I don't think he's going to average a triple-double here for the NBA Finals. I think Bam's going to get the job done. Level 2 lock.”
Nikola Jokic averaged 30.2 points, 14.0 rebounds, and 7.2 assists across the 2023 NBA Finals -- short of a triple-double average since assists fell under 10 -- so the Under hits (2023 NBA Finals series stats). (30.2/14.0/7.2 per game (Finals series))
“so uh i like aaron judge here uh he's not the favorite alonzo's a favorite plus 300 we go with aaron judge plus 320 all rise here Wrong player favorite All rise”
Matt Olson led all of MLB with 54 home runs in 2023; Aaron Judge did not lead (ESPN 2023 MLB home run leaders). (Olson 54 HR (MLB leader))
“Take the home team and a blowout. New York Mets money line minus 130 blowout special here. Easy win tonight for them over the Philadelphia Phillies.”
NYM 2, PHI 0 — New York Mets beat the Philadelphia Phillies 2-0 on May 30, 2023; the Mets moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm taking the Twins here. I think they get the series win tonight here. Minnesota Twins, money line, minus 112, level one lock over the Houston Astros.”
HOU 5, MIN 1 — Houston Astros beat the Minnesota Twins 5-1 on May 30, 2023; the Twins moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go over the 45 points here. Hidden Gem USFL action starts at 4 in the afternoon tomorrow. There it is right there. A lot of points scored. At least we're anticipating some good points scored in the Hidden Gem. Birmingham Stallions, New Orleans Breakers again going over the total of 45 points.”
Birmingham 24, New Orleans 20 — Birmingham beat New Orleans 24-20 (44 combined points) on May 27, 2023 in USFL Week 6, under the 45 total (Wikipedia 2023 USFL season).
“Keep it simple here. Atlanta here. Blowout special over the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. We used to say it all the time. Oh, I know they don't do it as much anymore, but whenever I think of the Atlanta Braves, I think about all the times that me and my mom used to battle back and forth, and I would always do the tomahawk chop for the Atlanta Braves, and she hated it because she's a Giants, a diehard Giants fan. But there you go, talking a little blowout special action, the Braves versus the Phillies. Again, the Braves minus 154.”
ATL 4, PHI 6 — Phillies beat Braves 6-4 on May 26, 2023 (Kimbrel's 400th save); the Atlanta moneyline loses (ESPN).
“The last two times they lost came back big time and won easy here I going to lay the small spot here I going to go all the way up here on a Friday level three lock Milwaukee Brewers over your mom's San Francisco Giants. Man, we go all the way up on a Friday. I like that. The Brew Crew over the Giants again, lock of the day, level three lock. And I mean, it's got to go, right? We got to go all the way up on a Friday, heading into Memorial Day weekend. So I like that one. Liked that one a lot. The Brew Crew against the Giants. Again, FanDuel.com line on that one. The Brewers minus 142 with the take back being plus 120.”
MIL 1, SF 15 — Giants beat Brewers 15-1 on May 26, 2023; the Milwaukee moneyline loses badly (ESPN).
“Let's go with Riley Green here of the Detroit Tigers to have over one and a half total bases, plus 115, hidden gem in their game against the White Sox.”
Riley Greene went 2-for-3 with two singles (2 total bases) against the White Sox on May 25, 2023, over the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (2-for-3, 2 TB)
“wrong team favorite my Miami Heat make it two in a row as they might just advance here to the NBA finals yeah there's no doubt about it man eight and a half and I've heard people talking about”
BOS 110, MIA 97 — Celtics beat Heat 110-97 on May 25, 2023 (ECF Game 5); Miami's margin of -13 busts the +8.5 spread (ESPN).
“So let's stick to the first five innings. Let's go first five innings over five and a half runs, plus 125. in the Bronx Bombers-Baltimore Orioles game.”
Orioles led Yankees 1-0 through 5 innings (1 combined run) on May 25, 2023, well under the 5.5 first-5-innings total (ESPN box score). (BAL 1, NYY 0 through 5 (1 total))
“1.25 goals minus 115. Everton will basically have to win by two or more goals. If I'm breaking down this correctly, Lee, go ahead and give us the details on it. Okay, so here's how the English Premier League works. Everyone in the last day starts at the same exact time. So a team doesn't have the advantage of knowing, hey, we don't have to play as hard or we need a certain amount of goals. And the finish is sometimes credible, not just for the top four or five spots. It's for the bottom three. Here's what happens. The bottom three teams get relegated to the lower league, and they lose a lot of money. So they want to do everything they can to stay in 17th place or higher, and that's exactly where Everton stands. So Everton, a lot of people think, oh, okay, you know, they need to win this game because Leicester and also Leeds United are two points behind them. If they lose and both those two teams, either one of them wins, then they're going to be relegated. So it is a must win. The public loves to play teams that are in a must win situation. But the problem for Everton is, well, they lost the first game when they played each other early in the season, 3-0 to A.C. Bournemouth. They also, in the 37 games, have only scored above two goals twice. They've scored, get this, they've been shut out 10 times in the 37 games. So all A.C. Bournemouth needs to do is probably score one goal, and they're going to be in great shape here and we'll cover. So, hey, do I think Everton has a chance to tie or win? Yeah, that might be what happens. But to win by two or more goals, I think this line's going to go up. We want to get it now. We're going to take AC Bournemouth here plus the 1.25 goals. They can lose the game by one goal. They can end in a draw. A lot of games end in draws. Or they win, and we're a winner here. Wrong team favorite against Everton on Sunday morning.”
Everton 1, Bournemouth 0 — Everton beat Bournemouth 1-0 on May 28, 2023 (Doucoure winner, ESPN). On the +1.25 Asian handicap, a 1-goal loss splits into a push at +1.0 and a cover at +1.5, netting a partial (net-positive) win for Bournemouth bettors.
“The Cubs minus 116 versus the Mets with the take-back being minus 102. Break that one down for us. Yeah, Marcus Stroman playing himself into a really nice new contract with the Chicago Cubs. He's just 3-4 this year, but a respectable 3.05 ERA in 56 innings. And if you look through his game log, 11 of his 19 total earned runs allowed him come in just two of his 10 starts. He gave up six on the road to Minnesota and five at home to the Dodgers. Two pretty potent lineups here Probably due for a little bit of regression here but I don think it happens today First off he pitching at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing in That why the total on the game get this, is six and a half. So wind's blowing out. You'll see some 10 and a half, 11, 12, 13 totals in Cubs games. But second, facing a Mets lineup that simply can't hit right-handed pitching right now. They rank 15th in batting average, 18th in OPS, and just 18th in hard hit rate against right as it is this year. They've got a veteran lineup here, but just it's been absolutely below average. Kadei Songa, 30-year-old rookie from Japan, starts on the other end. He's been decent with a .377 ERA in 43 innings, but I think teams are starting to catch on to him. Aside from 12 strikeouts in his last outing, his swing and miss numbers have begun to drop. He's walking over three batters per start, and we know what happens when you walk usually two or more batters in a game, and his hard hit rate has increased with each start in the last month. Don't say these Cubbies here at home right now. This team is hungry, and the NL Central here, blow out special, the Cubs over the Mets. Boom, there it is right there.”
CHC 4, NYM 2 — Cubs beat Mets 4-2 on May 24, 2023 (Stroman 8 IP); the Chicago moneyline covers (ESPN).
“That's why we're going to go under five and a half goals here in the Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes game here. Level two lock on a Wednesday. Nice. Level two lock right there. Little Florida and Carolina Hurricane action NHL playoffs. Again, going under five and a half minus the 128.”
FLA 4, CAR 3 — Panthers beat Hurricanes 4-3 on May 24, 2023 (ECF Game 4 sweep); combined 7 goals busts the under 5.5 (ESPN).
“Wrong team favorite. Cincinnati Reds here, money line against the St. Louis Cardinals. I'll tell you right now, I'm so surprised and so shocked at the way that the Cardinals have started off this season. And, I mean, now you're already just about 50 games into the season or over 50 games into the season. I just can't believe that they're playing. They're a storied franchise when it comes to baseball. And for them to be under .500 the way that they are and really struggling, I don't know how many times you would tell me, hey, it's going to be the Cincinnati Reds and the Cardinals and we're going to roll with the Reds. But here we are right here rolling with the Reds because of the Cardinals and the way that they've struggled. So, you know, it's been a hell of a season. And so far for the St. Louis Cardinals, I'm sure their fan base is not too excited. But there you go. FanDuel.com line on the wrong team favorite. St. Louis minus 146 versus Cincinnati with the take back being plus 124.”
STL 8, CIN 5 — Cardinals beat Reds 8-5 on May 23, 2023; the Cincinnati moneyline loses (ESPN).
“I'm laying the one and a half points yeah it's a blowout special but it could also be the right team is favored we're going with a double dose here right team favorite and blowout special my Miami Heat over the Boston Celtics tonight”
MIA 99, BOS 116 — Celtics beat Heat 116-99 on May 23, 2023 (ECF Game 4); Miami's margin of -17 busts the -1.5 spread (ESPN).
“I see a 2 or 3 final Take the under 5 with confidence There it is right there Well this should be a fun game three This is so important for Dallas man They got to get back into this series If they go down 3-0, it's lights out. Similar to the NBA, it's lights out. But this has been a fun series. As you mentioned, both games so far have gone to overtime, and the Golden Knights have come out on top. So it should be a tight one. The battle of coaches that both have Golden Knight ties. I mean, it's a lot of fun. I'm really enjoying what's going on in NHL. Of course, Florida on the other side of things is dominating as they're up 3-0 as well. So there you go. Lock of the day. What level lock did you give it again, Lee? It's going to be a level one lock. Level one lock. I went all the way up on the blowout special, so we've got to bring it all down with the level one lock of the day when you're talking about the Vegas Golden Knights in Dallas. Under five and a half goals, minus 112.”
DAL 0, VGK 4 — Golden Knights beat Stars 4-0 on May 23, 2023 (WCF Game 3); combined 4 goals covers the under 5.5 (ESPN).
“Newcastle minus 290 versus Leicester Foxes with a take back being plus 235. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so Leicester actually won. If people remember, it was talked about. I think they were 500-1 before the season, the 2015-2016 season. They won the Premier League. They became one of just seven clubs to have won the Premier League since the inception in 1992. But since that point, everything has gone down. What happens in the Premier League, the bottom three teams, they end up getting relegated. And they bring up three teams from the league below it. So you lose. And it's not just like, oh, okay, it's a bad season in the NFL or any of these other professional sports. is you lose big-time money. You get relegated, and you have to end up finishing in the top three in the league below it to get back up. So it is bad, bad, and more bad news. The Foxes are sitting 19th. They do need to win desperately. If they win, they would jump 18th place. Leeds United, who lost to West Ham on Sunday, and they're going to have to do it against a Newcastle team. A lot of people hear about the top teams, and everyone knows who the top teams are, and they follow that. You see the top teams are teams like Liverpool, Man City, Arsenal. Chelsea is generally up there, not this year. But what's happened is they're actually sitting in a tie for third. They win this. They're going to be set up, and you want to be in the top four. It helps you out down the road. It helps you get players. So they need to win. This is pretty much a big game for both teams here. So what you have here with the Magpies, very proficient at set pieces. In fact, number one set pieces, that's after a foul, stopping and setting up number one in the league here. They have won four of the last five Premier League home games by multiple goals. and only loss was to Arsenal, which sits second here. Like I said, they want to make sure they end up in top four and they get it with a win here. So Leicester has given up the fourth most corner kicks in the league here. The last time these two teams played, Newcastle had 12 corner kicks. That's a lot to Leicester's three here. They were up 3-0 going into halftime. I think Lester here, so many problems up and down the lineup here. They know it coming to an end here We going to lay the spot here We love Newcastle here We going to go with a blowout special Newcastle the Magpies Got to love that nickname here over the Foxes here of Leicester”
NEW 0, LEI 0 — Newcastle United drew 0-0 with Leicester City on May 22, 2023; the Newcastle moneyline loses on a draw (ESPN).
“Let's lay the one-and-a-half runs here. The Seattle Mariners, big time over the Oakland Athletics. Yeah, there you go. No doubt about it. I feel like I can score a run on the Oakland A's. I mean, that's how bad that they are. I feel like I can score, you can score, we all can score, man. So there you go. Not too many highlights in their season so far. Blowout special number two, rolling with the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland A's. Again, FanDuel.com line on that one. Seattle minus one and a half runs, minus 152, of course, take back being plus the one and a half runs, plus 126 for the Oakland A's.”
SEA 11, OAK 2 — Mariners beat Athletics 11-2 on May 22, 2023; Seattle's margin of +9 covers -1.5 runs (ESPN).
“I think he's a different class fighter. I think he's going to submit his opponent here. Plus 110, wrong fighter favorite. Boom, there it is right there. A little UFC action going right there. And you know how I feel about guys with no nickname, man. You can't rock with me if you ain't got no nickname. But I think that the padded stats as well is pretty interesting, or the padded win-loss record is pretty interesting as well. Can you imagine? Can you imagine? You know, boxing. I think we also, you and I have some boxing roots. We used to really watch and enjoy it. There was always that guy when someone couldn't fight, and they would say, oh, okay, there's this guy that's in his late 30s. He'll take a fight. He'll get on a plane and show up. he'll lose but he'll show up did he's fought those guys and i just just don't think that that he's going to have any chance here uh against a guy that certainly chase hooper i think is uh is certainly on his way up”
Chase Hooper defeated Nick Fiore by unanimous decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill (billed as UFC Vegas 73) on May 20, 2023 (Wikipedia). (Hooper def. Fiore, unanimous decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27))
“I'm taking Miami plus the nine points here. Another wrong team favorite.”
BOS 105, MIA 111 — Heat beat Celtics 111-105 on May 19, 2023 (ECF Game 2); Miami's outright win covers the +9 spread (ESPN).
“We going to go with a level two lock to end Friday and stay on this three and a roll and hopefully lead to another winning week here Pittsburgh Mollers minus two and a half over the Memphis Showboats.”
Memphis 22, Pittsburgh 0 — Memphis shut out Pittsburgh 22-0 on May 20, 2023 in USFL Week 6; the Maulers lost outright, nowhere near covering -2.5 (Wikipedia 2023 USFL season).
“So wrong team favored. Washington Nationals money line plus 108 over Miami Marlins.”
MIA 4, WSH 3 — Miami Marlins held off Washington 4-3 on a Jorge Soler homer; Nationals moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a blowout special with the New York Yankees, Bronx Bombers, Moneyline, minus 116 over their hated rival here, the Toronto Blue Jays.”
TOR 3, NYY 0 — Toronto Blue Jays beat the Yankees 3-0 on Danny Jansen's 10th-inning walk-off homer; Yankees moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“let's just play a strong player prop here kyle lowry over 10 and a half points here level one lock”
Kyle Lowry scored 15 points (6-12 FG) as Miami beat Boston 123-116 in ECF Game 1; clears the 10.5-point line (ESPN box score). (Kyle Lowry: 15 pts)
“Detroit Tigers, I think this is going to be a level one lock on Tuesday. There it is right there. Tigers and the Pirates. And yeah, I was trying to be a little nice to the Pirates and say they're coming back down to earth. And Lee dropped the hammer on them. they're like a sinking ship going quickly. But there you go. The Tigers and Pirates, they lead us off today. Lock of the day, number one, level one lock. Tigers minus 116 versus Pittsburgh.”
DET 4, PIT 0 — Detroit Tigers shut out Pittsburgh 4-0 behind Michael Lorenzen's seven strikeouts over six innings; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“The Guardians minus 126 versus the White Sox with the take back being plus 116. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, there is not a lot worse matchup for the Chicago White Sox here now than Shane Bieber. If there's one thing to know about Bieber, it is that he has elite stuff, and he can make batters look really silly here on a swinging miss. Watch this game. I mean, there's some guys that chase balls, and I've seen them one hand off their bat when they finish, sometimes two, three feet outside the batter's box, and they're just shaking their heads here. His strikeouts have been down a little bit this year, but he's always been a bit of a slow starter and looks to be getting his movement back in his last few starts. And he's going up against a team that ranks dead last in baseball with a 33% chase rate, fifth worst in whiff rate here, worst in baseball in weak contact rate, and fifth worst in hard hit rate. The White Sox team has I think given up on themselves And as much as the hitters have struggled the pitching is just as bad Check this out Lance Lynn in fact has the worst ERA in baseball at seven 51 right now He's given up the fifth most hits in baseball with 11 home runs. And he ranks in just a 23rd percent tile and barrel percentage. Somehow it's even worse at home where he gets this as a 956 ERA in three starts here, and he's giving up a 350 batting average to left-handed hitters. This is crazy. Guess who splits their hitters against right-handers pitching better than anyone? That's right. It's the Cleveland Guardians. They will have six lefties, it looks like, in the lineup tonight. Even if Lynn puts together something respectable tonight, He has one of the worst bullpens behind him. I think we see another ugly one on the south side of Chicago here. The Cleveland Guardians. That's right, not the Indians. The Cleveland Guardians run away with it here. You're going to love this game. This might be over by the fifth or sixth inning. Cleveland Guardians, level two lock over the Chicago White Sox.”
CHW 8, CLE 3 — Chicago White Sox beat Cleveland 8-3, with Luis Robert Jr. homering for a fourth straight game; Guardians moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“Denver Nuggets here. Minus the six points over the L.A. Lakers in game one. The Western Conference final here. Level three lock all the way up.”
DEN 132, LAL 126 — Denver beat the Lakers 132-126 in Game 1 of the West Finals (Jokic: 34-21-14); the exact 6-point margin pushes the -6 spread (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with the Boston Celtics plus 100. Every $100 you wager, you want $100 back here. I think it's a level two lock to start off on Monday.”
Miami Heat beat Boston 4 games to 3 in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals, closing it out with a 103-84 Game 7 win on May 29, 2023; Celtics futures bet loses (ESPN).
“let's go to the toronto blue jays minus the 168 blowout special over the bronx bombers”
NYY 7, TOR 4 — New York Yankees beat Toronto 7-4, with Aaron Judge homering twice; Blue Jays moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“So with that kind of matchup here I going with Pete Alonzo He has at least two bases or more today Double, no, he's not going to have a triple. Doesn't have the leg for that. Double or home run, or let's say two or three singles. All you need is two singles gets the job done. Pete Alonzo, minus 140 here. That's going to be my hidden gem in their game this afternoon, late this afternoon against the Washington Nationals.”
Pete Alonso went 1-for-4 with a single (1 total base) as Washington beat the Mets 10-3; under the 2.0 total bases line (ESPN box score). (Alonso 1-for-4, 1 TB)
“Wrong team favored. We're going with the Arizona Diamondbacks here at home over the San Francisco Giants. And if you needed any more evidence that the Giants are not a very good team, Mama Q, who is a diehard Giants fan, just shakes her head every single time she sees the Giants on TV. She's got all the packages so she can watch every game, hear every game, doesn't miss any action, and all she does is shake her head any time she hears the San Francisco Giants. They're that bad this year. So there you go. That starts us off today. The Giants versus the Diamondbacks. Wrong team. Favorite. FanDuel.com line on that one. Giants minus 122 with a take back for Arizona being plus 102.”
ARI 7, SF 5 — Arizona Diamondbacks beat San Francisco 7-5 on Dominic Fletcher's first MLB homer and 4 RBIs; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I'm laying the two and a half points here. Goodbye, Golden State Warriors. The L.A. Lakers minus two and a half. Blowout special.”
LAL 122, GS 101 — LA Lakers eliminated Golden State 122-101 in Game 6 of the West Semis; margin of +21 covers the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I just don think we going to see a flawless performance from the Renegades here against DC I think DC is going to double up the Renegades here Level three lock all the way up D.C. defenders, they double up the Renegades here and the Arlington Renegades and win the championship. Finally, the XFL finish the season. Wow, there it is, all the way up. Again, another level three lock right there. Lock of the day, XFL championship game. D.C. defenders over the Arlington Renegades. And as I mentioned before, it has been a really fun season of the XFL. Kind of exceeded expectations. San Antonio's been a great city. St. Louis has been a great city. There's been a lot of cities that really have embraced their XFL team. So this should be a fun one, man. D.C. versus Arlington championship game. Lee Sterling rolls all the way up. Level 3 lock. FanDuel.com line on that one. The defenders minus 6.5 versus the Renegades.”
Arlington 35, D.C. 26 — Arlington Renegades upset D.C. Defenders 35-26 in the 2023 XFL Championship Game at the Alamodome; Defenders lost outright, well outside the -6.5 spread (Wikipedia, sourced to official XFL/game recap).
“This one's a blowout. Tampa Bay Rays blowout special over the Bronx Bombers. Yeah, we say Bronx Bombers very slow because they haven't really been the Bronx Bombers this season due to a lot of injuries, both the judge and Stanton and a bunch of others and their pitching staff hasn't been what they need to be. All Yankee fans are looking like, what in the world is going on with the New York Yankees? But at some point, I'm assuming that they'll get healthy and they'll get back. But right now, the Tampa Bay Rays are rolling that way. blowout special against the Rays. Again, minus 116 versus New York with”
TB 8, NYY 2 — Tampa Bay Rays beat the Yankees 8-2 behind Josh Lowe's 5 RBIs; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“The Hurricanes minus 130 versus the Devils with the take back being minus 108. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so the New Jersey Devils have a problem, and it's in their goalie crease. They have this problem coming into the season. They were able pretty much to cover it up with some strong offense. Now in the playoffs, they've played an absolute goalie carousel since the start of round one against New York. First, it was free agents signing Vitek Vanacek, but he really struggled. So they put in rookie goalie here Akira Schmidt Schmidt for a few games looked pretty good was dominant against the Rangers but this Carolina team is a different breed and they dominated the first two games of the series at home, forcing New Jersey to go back to Vanasek in games three and four. It has not worked out well at all for them. He gave up 10 goals in two games, and if you watch his post-game press conference, this guy's confidence here is shot. He now has an 834 save percentage and a 452 goals against average in seven career playoff games. And he has actually been worse this postseason. So what is New Jersey going to do? Stick with this guy or go back to Schmidt, who allowed seven goals in the first two games of the series? I don't think either one of these guys here is viable. The concern for the Hurricanes coming in was they've never been able to win playoff games on the road. They're 7-15 in the last 22 road playoff games, but this game and this team is almost unstoppable at home. People don't talk about it. You talk about teams like the Golden State Warriors and the NBA at home, how good they are, but dating back to the beginning of the 22 playoffs, Carolina's 11-2 at home in Raleigh. And a lot of it has to do from their goaltender here, Frederick Anderson. He was hurt coming in. He has been incredible, though, out there. He's 4-0 in five starts. And he was actually pulled from game one because he gave up four goals in the first 21 minutes, but still has a 9-30 save percentage because aside Aside from that one bad start, he's given up one goal in each of the other four. I don't see how New Jersey can get anything going offensively with the game plan changes to account for their goalies right now, especially in this arena. Carolina clenches the series in Raleigh this evening here. We're going to go with a level three lock all the way up. Carolina Hurricanes here over the New Jersey Devils.”
CAR 3, NJ 2 — Carolina Hurricanes beat New Jersey 3-2 in OT on Jesper Fast's power-play winner, eliminating the Devils; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“That's right, another level three lock, Boston Celtics here over the Philadelphia 76ers. We go back to back all the way up right there. Level three lock the Celtics and Philadelphia, and we're taking the Celtics over Philadelphia. And I'll say this, man, if they're worth the salt, if they really are, if they got any pride about themselves, they'll come out there with that energy that you're talking about because, man, they just look like they were sleepless in Seattle. You know what I mean? They just look terrible the other night just being just, again, going through the motions. So if they're worth the salt, if they care anything about their season and what they have in the future for them, they're going to come out there, you know, balls to the wall this evening. So excited about this game and a level three lock we got. Celtics minus two and a half versus the Philadelphia 76ers.”
BOS 95, PHI 86 — Boston Celtics beat Philadelphia 95-86 in Game 6 of the East Semis; margin of +9 covers the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I like the Denver Nuggets plus 410 I think they're coming out of the west so if they come out of the west all they got to do is win one game on the road because I don't see anyone beating them at mile high so i'm gonna go with the denver nuggets here i i think what you do here is you have bet a little you'll win a whole lot on the denver nuggets they are rolling right now i mean all five of”
Denver Nuggets won the 2023 NBA Finals 4 games to 1 over the Miami Heat, their first championship in franchise history (Wikipedia, sourced to official NBA results).
“Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers to score a goal minus 130. Hidden gem.”
Connor McDavid was held to 0 goals (2 assists) as the Oilers beat the Golden Knights 4-1 on May 10, 2023 (West 2nd Round Game 4); the goal-scorer prop busts (ESPN). (0 G, 2 A)
“We're going to go with a blowout special. I think he wins all three rounds here. We're going with the great white Alex Morono over one of my favorite all-time fighters, Tim Dirty Means. There you go right there. I'll tell you what, talk about the battle of the nicknames. I like both of these, right? Alex the Great White Morono going against Tim Dirty Means. I'm with it. I'm with that UFC action right there. I always say if you're going to be a really good UFC fighter, you've got to have a really good nickname, man. That's what it's all about. So there you go. We're rolling with Alex the Great White Morono, minus 225 versus Tim Dirty Means blowout special here on Locked on Bet.”
Alex Morono submitted Tim Means via second-round guillotine choke (2:09) at UFC on ABC 4 on May 13, 2023, in Charlotte, NC; Morono's moneyline cashes (Wikipedia, sourced to official UFC results).
“I'm going with Miami Heat, plus three and a half points here. Wrong team favorite. Goodbye, New York Knicks.”
NY 112, MIA 103 — Knicks beat the Heat 112-103 on May 10, 2023 (East Semis Game 5); Miami lost by 9, busting the +3.5 line (ESPN).
- Malcolm Brogdon Over 13.5 Points lost
- Boston Celtics -7.5 lost
“So we're going to take the Boston Celtics, minus the 7.5 points, and Malcolm Brogdon over the 13.5 points. Two-team parlay. Well, it's actually a player team parlay here. We're going to go with a rare parlay bet here. Bet a little. Win a whole lot.”
PHI 115, BOS 103 — 76ers beat the Celtics 115-103 on May 9, 2023 (East Semis Game 5); Boston lost outright, so the Celtics -7.5 leg busts and the parlay loses regardless of the Brogdon points leg (ESPN).
“I'm going to take the Kansas City Royals here. I think the wrong team is favored against Chicago White Sox. Boom. There it is right there, the White Sox and the Royals. And, hey, you know, if you're going to be a bad team, at least hit and score some runs, right? Right. I mean, you might not win the game, but at least be somewhat entertaining. So there you go. At least we could be in line for some entertainment in this game. White Sox and the Royals. That's the WTF. That is the wrong team favorite as we're rolling with the Kansas City Royals with the take back being plus 120 here on Locked on Bets.”
CHW 4, KC 2 — White Sox beat the Royals 4-2 on May 9, 2023; Kansas City's moneyline busts (ESPN).
“We're going with the Denver Nuggets minus the points. They go up 3-2 of the Phoenix Suns. Ooh, there you go right there. This is a pivotal game five in this series, man. I'm very excited about how this one shakes out. The Nuggets looked unstoppable when they were in Denver. They went back to Phoenix and Devin Booker took over. It was a Devin Booker show. So how do Denver, how do they, you know, rebound and make adjustments in this series? It's going to be fun to watch, and these NBA playoffs have been fun to watch anyway. Nodded up at two in this series, the Nuggets and the Suns. FanDuel.com line on that one. The Nuggets minus 5.5, minus 112, and then, of course, the take back for the Suns is plus 5.5, minus 108.”
DEN 118, PHX 102 — Nuggets beat the Suns 118-102 on May 9, 2023 (West Semis Game 5), a 16-point margin that covers -5.5 (ESPN).
“Lane 7.5 points, wrong team favorite. University of Miami plus 7.5. they might even win the game straight up.”
MIA 48, TA&M 33 — Miami beat Texas A&M 48-33 on September 9, 2023; the Hurricanes won outright, covering +7.5 easily (Wikipedia game summary).
“minus 110 break this one down make this make sense for us lee yeah washington had to play at arizona And this is just not a very good team. Jake Urban, young right-hander, you know, decent, 0-0 record, pitched a couple starts, 2-0-8 ERA. But he's going to face Anthony Escalphony and 3-1, 2-13 ERA. He's won both of his starts at home. This is a team that plays better at home. They're 9-8 at home. I just don't think Jake Urban's ready for this. here. So this team, not much of a team as far as batting are the Washington Nationals. They will use five and six pitchers the last two days. So their bullpen is certainly getting shooed up here. And Gabe Kapler made a statement here. Even though they lost, they did win the series this weekend. He was upset they left 10 runners on base and went three for 12 with runners in scoring position. I think his team's going to deliver a message here in this game here. So you get the better pitcher here and just doesn't walk discophanie. He's walked all of three guys in 30 innings. So that's key to pitchers. I love to back pitchers here that just don't walk guys. And you walk a guy early in the, in the inning here with no one out, one out, it's going to get you in trouble here. They don't have to worry about that. Let's go with the San Francisco Giants. Minus the one and a half runs here. Blowout special over the Washington Nationals.”
SF 1, WSH 5 — Nationals beat the Giants 5-1 on May 8, 2023; San Francisco lost outright, busting the -1.5 runs line (ESPN).
“Miami heat money line minus one 80. And if I need another card to draw here, the wild card, I'm taking my daughter. I think she's something like 16 and O or 17 and O in the last games that I've taken her here, uh, last four or five years. So go to Miami heat money line minus one 80 level two lock to start the week.”
MIA 109, NY 101 — Heat beat the Knicks 109-101 on May 8, 2023 (East Semis Game 4); Miami's moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“I'm going to go with a hidden gem. I'm going to take Phoenix minus two in the first half. I think they might have the legs. I think the crowd's going to be into it. I think KD and Booker are going to come out guns a-blazing here. I'm going to go with the Phoenix Suns minus the two first half wager.”
Suns led the Nuggets 67-52 at halftime of Game 3 on May 5, 2023, a 15-point first-half margin well past the -2 first-half line (ESPN box score). (Suns 67, Nuggets 52 (1st half))
“I'm going to go with Max Verstappen here. I think he notches win number two for F1 in Miami here minus 210 here I think this is going to be an easy win Blowout special Max Verstappen”
Max Verstappen won the 2023 Miami Grand Prix on May 7, 2023, driving for Red Bull Racing (Formula1.com official results).
“I'm laying the 166 here. Again, a second straight day. We're going all the way up to end the week here. Level three lock, Chicago Cubs over the Miami Marlins this afternoon.”
CHC 4, MIA 1 — Cubs beat the Marlins 4-1 on May 5, 2023; Chicago's moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“I'm going here, bet a little, when a whole lot on Lamar Jackson plus 1,500 after a game or two into the NFL season, he might be sitting as a 5 or 7-1 favorite.”
Lamar Jackson won the 2023 AP NFL MVP award with 49 of 50 first-place votes (493 of 500 possible points), announced in February 2024 (Associated Press, via Wikipedia).
“wrong team favorite Florida Panthers money line plus 160 over the Toronto Maple Leafs”
TOR 2, FLA 3 — Panthers beat the Maple Leafs 3-2 on May 4, 2023 (East 2nd Round Game 2); Florida's moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“We're going to go the Golden State Warriors here minus the 5.5 points. Get it now. I think this line goes up to 6-6.5. That's a level three lock all the way up.”
GS 127, LAL 100 — Warriors beat the Lakers 127-100 on May 4, 2023 (West Semis Game 2), a 27-point margin that covers -5.5 (ESPN).
“I'm going to go with the Cincinnati Reds here, plus the one-and-a-half runs here. Wrong team favorite. Boom, there it is right there, rolling with the Cincinnati Reds over the San Diego Padres, and again, rolling with the runs. And as you mentioned, multiple different ways you could play this game and multiple different ways you could play a lot of the games that we talk about. But rolling with the Reds, plus the one-and-a-half runs, plus 110.”
SD 7, CIN 1 — Padres beat the Reds 7-1 on May 3, 2023; Cincinnati lost outright, well worse than the +1.5 runs it needed (ESPN).
“Give me the New York Mets to cover the minus one-and-a-half runs behind a pissed-off Mad Max. I like it. I like it. Pissed-off Mad Max. That just sounds like a headline in a movie, right? Yep. Featuring pissed-off Mad Max. There you go. Blowout special. Mets and the Detroit Tigers. Again, game two, the second game of the doubleheader. Again, that's the biggest focus right there. Remember, it is the second game. So the FanDuel.com line on that one. The Mets minus one and a half runs, minus 136.”
DET 8, NYM 1 — In Game 2 of the May 3, 2023 Mets-Tigers doubleheader, Detroit beat New York 8-1; the Mets lost outright, busting the -1.5 runs line (ESPN).
“I'm going to lay the 9.5 points here. We're going to go with a level 2 lock on Wednesday hump day. There you go right there. And if the Boston Celtics can't get it done with a hobbled Joel Embiid or no Joel Embiid, then they're really in trouble, right?”
BOS 121, PHI 87 — Celtics beat the 76ers 121-87 on May 3, 2023 (East Semis Game 2), a 34-point margin that easily covers -9.5 (ESPN).
“I'm going under 15.5 points, D'Angelo Russell. Wrong player favorite, wrong team favorite. I don't know what we're going to call it, but we're going under the 15 and a half points for D'Angelo Russell.”
GS 112, LAL 117 — Lakers beat Warriors 117-112; D'Angelo Russell scored 19 points vs under 15.5, busts (ESPN box score). (D'Angelo Russell: 19 points)
“I'm going with a blowout special. The New York Knicks minus the 6.5 over my Miami Heat.”
NY 111, MIA 105 — Knicks beat Heat 111-105; New York margin +6 vs -6.5, busts (ESPN box score).
“Or how about over 8.5 runs minus 118 and the under is minus 104. Lee, make this make sense to me. Let me know what level lock this is going to be. All right, so the St. Louis Cardinals off to an absolutely dreadful start this year. They ranked dead last in the NL Central. Back two and eight last ten games. The team has a ton of weaknesses, which I'll get into in a minute. But they have one specific strength, hitting left-handed pitching. They rank sixth in weighted runs created against Southpaws at 124, sixth in batting average, and second in hard hit rate, which is pretty much not a surprise of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arianda here in the lineup. So I'm not worried about this offense at all right now, especially you got Patrick Sandoval who is actually due for some regression here with his 424 expected ERA versus a 391 ERA The problem here for St. Louis is pitching. The pitching staff, ERA is almost five. The bullpen hasn't been much better here. Today's starter, Steven Matz, has been miserable so far. 623 ERA, which would put him in the bottom 10 in all Major League Baseball pitchers if he had enough innings so far. And he has already given up five home runs in 26 innings pitched. On top of that, he too is facing an Angels lineup that is crushing lefties this season. The Halos have a top five offense in every statistical category against lefties and have crushed Mets historically with this lineup hitting, get this, a combined three. 0-3 against him. You have two offenses here in perfect splits against two pitchers who aren't in good matchups tonight. Take the over 8-1-2. We could see this hitting by the sixth inning. It's your kind of play here. We're going all the way up level 3 lock on the over in the St. Louis Cardinals LA Angels game over 8-1-2 runs. Boom, there it is right there.”
STL 1, LAA 5 — Angels beat Cardinals 5-1 behind a Taylor Ward three-run homer; combined 6 runs vs over 8.5, busts (ESPN box score).
“Our first blowout special, Tobias Harris, over 16.5 points of the Philadelphia 76ers tonight in their game against the Boston Celtics.”
BOS 115, PHI 119 — 76ers beat Celtics 119-115; Tobias Harris scored 18 points vs over 16.5, covers (ESPN box score). (Tobias Harris: 18 points)
“Take the Cubs here to start the month of May off right here. Chicago Cubs money line minus 134 over the hapless Washington squad.”
WSH 1, CHC 5 — Cubs beat Nationals 5-1 behind a Dansby Swanson two-run homer; Chicago moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with the Denver Nuggets here. Blowout number three here on Monday. Denver Nuggets take a 2-0 lead in blowout fashion over the Phoenix Suns. Man, that'll be a backbreaker really for Phoenix, man. You get up 2-0 or get down 2-0, I should say, in the NBA playoffs. And I know the Warriors were able to overcome the Sacramento Kings after getting down 0-2. But Denver, man, they're just a different animal right now. If they go up 2-0 on Phoenix, they're going to be questioning themselves and wondering what in the hell is going on. So there you go. That's going to be a good one, fun one to watch. I've been very intrigued by this series, even though it's only been one game, but just the anticipation of it has been fun. So Denver versus Phoenix, again, the blowout special. FanDuel.com line on that one. Denver minus four and a half versus the Phoenix Suns.”
DEN 97, PHX 87 — Nuggets beat Suns 97-87 (Nikola Jokic 39 pts, 16 reb); Denver margin +10 vs -4.5, covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with a tight end here. the first position player drafted here in the draft for 2023 for the Miami Dolphins plus 340”
The Miami Dolphins' first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft was CB Cam Smith at #51 overall (round 2), not a tight end (Wikipedia 2023 NFL Draft results). (Dolphins first pick: CB Cam Smith, #51 overall)
“I don't think this fight's going to decision. I think someone going to win by KO TKO or a submission here And and also Cody Durden does train in South Florida His submissions I think are much underrated especially in the last couple years since he started training down here. So, bet a little win a whole lot. Plus 142, this fight doesn't go to a decision.”
Cody Durden beat Charles Johnson by unanimous decision (30-27 x3) over 3 rounds at UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon (April 29, 2023) — the fight went the distance, so 'does not go to decision' busts (Wikipedia event results).
“We're going to go with a blowout special here. We're going to go with the Miami Marlins here over the Chicago Cubs. There you go right there. Marlins and Cubs action. A little Major League Baseball blowout special for us today. And, again, sticking with the Florida theme, right? A little Miami Marlins. I'm so caught up in the Florida theme. I'm calling everybody Florida. So there you go. Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs, FanDuel.com line on that one. Marlins minus 102 versus Chicago.”
MIA 3, CHC 2 — Marlins beat Cubs 3-2 on a walk-off RBI single; Miami moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with a level two lock to end the week. we're going with the Sacramento Kings plus the points against the Golden State Warriors. I think this game's going down to a one or two possession game. Yeah, I do too. As a Warrior fan, I looked at that line and thought, boy, that's a lot of points. Seven and a half.”
GS 99, SAC 118 — Kings beat Warriors 118-99 to force Game 7; Sacramento margin +19 vs +7.5, covers (ESPN box score).
“Hendon Hooker will be drafted by the Las Vegas Raiders, 14-1. If you win that bet, you're going to come down here and you're going to visit me and we'll drive down to the Keys, spend a couple days down in the Keys, drinking, relaxing, enjoying the sun and surf. Bet a little, win a whole lot.”
Hendon Hooker was drafted by the Detroit Lions with pick #68 (round 3), not by the Las Vegas Raiders (Wikipedia 2023 NFL Draft results). (Lions, pick #68 (round 3))
“And you're getting seven points. We're going to go with a wrong team favorite. Atlanta Hawks tonight over the Boston Celtics.”
ATL 120, BOS 128 — Celtics beat Hawks 128-120 to close out the series; Atlanta margin -8 vs +7, busts (ESPN box score).
“I just, I think we're going to see, like I said, more offensive players. And for that reason, I think it's a nice bet here. Minus 170 here, more offensive players here drafted. Just think the number's a little bit low. Let's go with a level one lock. Boom, level one lock. And you're right. I mean, it very easily could go over 16 and a half with four quarterbacks coming off early, I expect.”
Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft had 15 offensive players (3 QB, 2 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE, 5 OT among the 31 picks) — under 16.5, over busts (Wikipedia 2023 NFL Draft round-1 results, position-counted). (15 offensive players in Round 1)
“23-1⁄2 minus 120. That's the FanDuel.com line on that. Lee, how are you looking at this one? How are you playing this one out? So I think that even though a lot of people have been talking about Dalton Kincaid from Utah, the tight end, I think that Michael Mayer is a more finished product. Here's a guy I believe caught eight touchdowns, an incredible blocker. And then when he ran a 4-7-40, I think it upped his draft status. Clearly two guys here. And also it's about need. And, you know, will he be picked, you know, at a position here at 23-and-a-half or lower? I say, yeah, look at the teams that need tight ends. Washington Commanders. I can't remember the last time they had a good tight end. They're sitting 16. Got the Detroit Lions. They traded their starting tight end to the Vikings at 18. The Seahawks, they need a tight end bad. They're sitting at 20 here. They all – the tight ends that didn't even come close to have 500 receiving yards last year. And then maybe a shocker here, the Packers, number 13, their starting tight end went to the Bears. So their top returning tight end had 114 receiving yards last year. So not a lot of top end talent here at the tight end position compared to other years. And here's a plug and play guy that doesn't get injured, blocks, catches the ball, smart, faster than I think most people thought here, does it all, even sells popcorn at halftime. Michael Mayer, we're going to go under 23.5 as far as his draft position. Level 2 lock.”
Michael Mayer was drafted by the Las Vegas Raiders at pick #35 (round 2), above the 23.5 line — under busts (Wikipedia 2023 NFL Draft results). (Pick #35)
“Take the over six and a half goals get on it right now blowout special over six and a half minus 110 toronto maple leafs tampa bay lightning”
TOR 2, TB 4 — Lightning beat Maple Leafs 4-2 (game actually played April 27, 2023); combined 6 goals vs over 6.5, busts (ESPN box score).
“Okay, 35%, 0 for four. John Morant, 30%, not his game. He shot six of them, one for six. And Desmond Bain, the best one, three for 12. He shoots 40%. I mean, that is absolutely abysmal. I think they're going to drive the lane. I think they're going to go up-tempo here. If they get the lead, look out. I'm laying the points here. I'm not saying they're going to win the series. All we've got to do is win one game at home where they are a different team here. blowout special Memphis Grizzlies over the lake show tonight yeah you know it's funny I really thought going into this series that Memphis was going to do exactly what you said just run them out of the gym because they got those young fresh legs and they just haven't been able to do that consistently right you see it in spurts they just haven done it consistently and I don know what it is if it jaw if it someone else I don know what the disconnect has been I like this young Memphis team Really surprised that the Lakers have been able to handle them like they have and get that 3 lead like they have But the key tonight, run them, run them, run them out of the gym. That'll be the key to getting not only the win, but also winning our play that we have here. Again, blowout special number two, FanDuel.com line on it. The Grizzlies minus four, minus 114 versus the Lake Show with the take back being plus one plus four minus 106.”
MEM 116, LAL 99 — Grizzlies beat Lakers 116-99 (Desmond Bane 33 pts); Memphis margin +17 vs -4, covers (ESPN box score).
“The under is under 15.5 is minus 220. The over 15.5 is plus 175. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, well, there's only been nine running backs selected in the first 20 picks of the NFL draft since 2010. And there haven't been any high-level running backs taken since Aquan Barkley was taken second overall. But I think B'John Robinson is special. And I think teams realize that if you don't have a great quarterback or if you do have a really good quarterback, it makes your game planning and your offense that much better. So, yeah, it's not been vogue to obviously pay the running backs big money. You don't want to pay them $15, $20 million a year by 29, 30 years old. They're usually on their downside. But, hey, if you're looking for one, this is the guy. So let's look at the three guys and the three teams here where he might go. Atlanta, number eight, don't have a running back. I think he changes and he helps out a team that doesn't have a real good quarterback. Same with number nine, Chicago Bears. They need a running game. They play in weather. He certainly would help Justin Fields a lot. And then the Philadelphia Eagles. They had more of a running game in the Super Bowl. I think they win the Super Bowl. So I think he's going either 8, 9, or 10. I think this is easier. A lot of people are going to look at 11 and say, oh, well, Tennessee already has Henry. Packers, they got running backs. New England's got running backs. So do the Jets. Well, I think he's going either 8, 9, or 10. I'm going to go the under 15.5 with Bijan Robinson. Level 2 lock.”
Atlanta Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, under the 15.5 line (Wikipedia 2023 NFL Draft round-1 results). (Pick #8)
“Over 4.5 is minus 175. That's the FanDuel.com line on that one. Under is plus 150. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right so we all know that Bryce Young he going to go one or two CJ Stroud he probably going one two or three I think we have a pretty darn good feeling Will Levis is going to go in the top ten Someone's going to take a shot on him and his arm strength. And then Anthony Richardson is going to go in the first round also. Someone's going to want to develop him. But the question is where? Where, oh, where is Hendon Hooker going to go? And a lot of people, they'll look at the draft order. You look at the bottom of the draft, and what do you see? You see teams like Jacksonville, the Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati, the Saints, Philadelphia, and Kansas City. They're not going to draft a quarterback. It's not going to happen. But I do think that either one team will trade down or someone in round two, And I'm talking about maybe someone like Arizona, maybe someone like Seattle, maybe even your Las Vegas Raiders will take a shot and draft up. Why will they end up going up? They're going to end up going up because they want to have the fifth-year option. If they get that fifth-year option, then it makes it certainly a whole lot easier for them to control him. Saves them a lot of money. It's that important. I think we're going to have five quarterbacks drafted in the first round. So we're going to go over four and a half quarterbacks drafted in the first round. Everyone loves to watch it. So let's go over four and a half. We're going all the way up on a Wednesday. Level three lock.”
Only 3 quarterbacks were selected in round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft (Bryce Young #1, C.J. Stroud #2, Anthony Richardson #4; Will Levis went #33 in round 2) — over 4.5 busts (Wikipedia 2023 NFL Draft round-1 results). (3 QBs in Round 1)
“i think atlanta's gonna play hard enough keep it close enough i'm taking the points here wrong team favored atlanta hawks plus the 13 and a half on tuesday night”
BOS 117, ATL 119 — Hawks beat Celtics 119-117 (Trae Young 38 pts), margin +2 vs Hawks +13.5; covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm calling it I'm going with a blowout special Carolina Hurricanes money line minus 156 over the Islanders”
CAR 2, NYI 3 — Islanders beat Hurricanes 3-2; Carolina moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Take the Cubbies here on the money line Minus 120 over the Slam Diego Padres That'll work. That'll work. What level lock are we going? Just a level one lock.”
CHC 6, SD 0 — Cubs shut out Padres 6-0 behind Justin Steele; Cubs moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“I think the wrong team is favored. Let's come out of the gate smoking here, red hot. I like the Memphis Grizzlies, plus four and a half here over the L.A. Lakers.”
LAL 117, MEM 111 — LA Lakers beat Memphis 117-111 in OT in Game 4, a 6-point margin that busts the Grizzlies' +4.5 cushion (ESPN NBA scoreboard).
“going to come back and haunt him here we're going to go with the bronx bombers here wrong team favored yankees plus big money over the minnesota twins oh i like to hear that yankees plus big money there you go right there yankees plus big money over the minnesota twins that is wtf number two, the Twins and Yankees. Again, the FanDuel.com line on that one. The Twins minus 156 with a take back, plus 132 for the New York”
MIN 6, NYY 1 — Minnesota beat New York 6-1 behind seven scoreless innings from Sonny Gray; Yankees moneyline busts (ESPN MLB scoreboard).
“We're going to start off the week with a level three lock. Yep, I didn't give it to you on Friday. Start the week off all the way up here under 216.5 total points. Milwaukee and Miami Heat tonight.”
MIA 119, MIL 114 — Miami beat Milwaukee 119-114 in Game 4 (Jimmy Butler scored 56); combined 233 points clears the under 216.5 (ESPN NBA scoreboard).
“I'm going to take the five points. I think it's an overreaction here. Wrong team favorite. We're going with the Pittsburgh Maulers.”
NJ 20, PIT 3 — New Jersey beat Pittsburgh 20-3 in Week 2 USFL play, a 17-point margin that busts the Maulers' +5 cushion (Wikipedia 2023 USFL season schedule/results).
“I know Muhammad Usman has the last name here the pedigree I just think this kid Junior Taffa 26 starting to come into his own And if it sitting at minus 110 they kind of telling you you don't want to go with a veteran here. I'm going to go with Junior, the juggernaut Taffa here. Lowout special. I think he gets a unanimous decision. Or he ends the fight here over Muhammad Usman.”
Mohammed Usman defeated Junior Tafa by unanimous decision over three rounds at UFC Fight Night on April 22, 2023; Tafa moneyline busts (UFC.com event result).
“We're going to end the week with another level two lock here. We're going to go the New York Knicks money line, minus 124, over the Cleveland Cavaliers, since they take a two-to-one lead in the series.”
NY 99, CLE 79 — New York beat Cleveland 99-79 in Game 3; Knicks moneyline covers (ESPN NBA scoreboard).
“I'm picking the six points here. Wrong team favorite. I'm going with the Sacramento Kings, believe it or not, against the Golden State Warriors.”
GS 114, SAC 97 — Golden State beat Sacramento 114-97 in Game 3, a 17-point margin that busts the Kings' +6 cushion (ESPN NBA scoreboard).
“We're going to go with the New York Mets here. I think the New York Mets here. Blowout special over the San Francisco Giants on Thursday night. Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. Blowout right there. That's that kind of style blowout. The Mets and the G-Men going up against it. And, yeah, man, the Giants are struggling, man. At the plate, they can't do anything. So, and Giants are a very proud organization, man. They're usually one of the better ones in Major League Baseball, but they are struggling out of the gates, and I don't see it getting better anytime soon. So there you go. FanDuel.com line on our blowout special. Mets minus 126 versus the San Francisco Giants.”
SF 4, NYM 9 — New York beat San Francisco 9-4; Mets moneyline covers (ESPN MLB scoreboard).
“So I'm taking Phoenix here. I'm laying the small spot. I know it's not Friday. We're going to hit you a day early. A level three lock all the way up. Phoenix Suns over the LA Clippers tonight.”
LAC 124, PHX 129 — Phoenix beat the LA Clippers 129-124 in Game 3, a 5-point margin that covers the Suns' -3 spread (ESPN NBA scoreboard).
“Wrong team favorite. T-Wolves, Minnesota Timberwolves here, plus the points against Denver. Game two tonight. You know, and it makes all the sense in the world because Minnesota and their offense is so inconsistent, right? And so it makes sense that they have a bad game one. They bounce back and be amazing in game two. And you're like, okay, well, that's the Timberwolves you're going to get. No, no, not necessarily because, again, they are so inconsistent. But I do think they bounce back and at least make it close And again when you taking the points that all you need You need it to be close There plenty of points there plus 8 minus 112 So they don necessarily have to win They just got to keep it close So I do think the Timberwolves can do that. That's our WTF starting us off, talking NBA playoffs, the Nuggets and Timberwolves again. FanDuel.com line on that one. The Nuggets minus 8.5, minus 108,”
DEN 122, MIN 113 — Denver beat Minnesota 122-113 in Game 2, a 9-point margin that clears the Timberwolves' +8.5 cushion (ESPN NBA scoreboard).
“Blowout special. Boston Bruins minus the one-and-a-half goals here over the Florida Panthers. That would put Florida in a bad situation right there, wouldn't it? Man, you don't want to be down 2-0 in the playoffs, but that could be the situation right there if Boston goes ahead and hits all these goals, gets all these goals like you're talking about. Again, blowout special Boston Bruins, who are currently up 1-0 in their series with the Florida Panthers. FanDuel.com line on this one is minus 1.5 goals plus 105 for Boston.”
BOS 3, FLA 6 — Florida beat Boston 6-3 in Game 2; the Bruins lost outright, busting the -1.5 goal spread (ESPN NHL scoreboard).
“Take the Minnesota Twins here. Money line minus the small spot here over the Boston Red Sox. Oh, there it is right there. Minnesota money line over the Boston Red Sox. Lock of the day. What level lock are we giving it, Lee? Level two lock. Boom. Level two lock. I'll take it. It's a Wednesday. We'll roll with the level two lock. We're working our way up to a lock of the day, being a level three lock and saying all the way up. But we're not quite there yet. Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, level two lock on this Wednesday. Again, the money line on that was minus 130 for MinnesotaFanDuel.com.”
BOS 4, MIN 10 — Minnesota beat Boston 10-4; Twins moneyline covers (ESPN MLB scoreboard).
“Are you kidding? almost minus 150 we're taking the take back price here we're gonna go on the washington nationals here plus money wrong team favorite over the baltimore orioles boom there it is right there the nationals have not gotten off to a hot start but uh as you mentioned when i hear that c word that control i think two things control you know if you don't have it you don't have it but then i also go back flashback to old school janet jackson control control and i start going back to my club day. So there you go. You know, got me going on this morning, man. This Tuesday morning, a little WTF action right now. Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals. Again, the FanDuel.com line on that one. The Orioles minus 146 with the take back. Plus 124, that plus money for the Washington Nationals.”
WSH 0, BAL 1 — Baltimore beat Washington 1-0 behind Dean Kremer; Nationals moneyline busts (ESPN MLB scoreboard).
“FanDuel.com line on this one, over 1.5 minus 184 on three-pointers. How are you rolling with this one, Lee? All right I mean there a lot of talk about Trey Young possibly being traded in the offseason That crazy that they thinking about getting rid of him so early in his career but just doesn't seem like he fits. But he seems to bounce back after poor performances. And last game just didn't play well. So we're not talking about playing Atlanta in the game. We're not talking about playing him in the series. We're talking about a player prop, and people love playing player props. And in the last game, just, you know, he just couldn't find his way. He was 5-for-18 from the field, 1-for-5, shooting three-pointers. But in the other two games against Boston, had two and four three-pointers made. He's a high-volume shooter. I think he's going to take it on his shoulders to try to get his team here off to a quick start here. And even if they do fall behind, he'll be shooting from three-point land here. So a guy that shoots a lot of threes, and I think he, like you said, he wants to make a statement maybe to be traded to a certain team or to show his value. I think you take him here. Over one-and-a-half three-pointers here. This is a blowout special.”
BOS 119, ATL 106 — Boston beat Atlanta 119-106 in Game 2; Trae Young made 2 of 8 three-pointers (24 pts), clearing the over 1.5 (ESPN player game log). (Trae Young: 2-8 three-pointers, 24 pts)
“We're going to go under the 214 total here. Level two lock for Tuesday. There it is right there. A little level two lock. Cleveland and the Knicks, a little NBA playoff action.”
CLE 107, NY 90 — Cleveland beat New York 107-90 in Game 2; combined 197 points stays under 214 (ESPN NBA scoreboard).
“The FanDuel line on this one the Heat minus 5 minus 112 [4:21] and then the Bulls' take back is plus 5.5, plus 108. [4:24] Break this one down for us, Lee. [4:26] Yeah, so it looked like it was always lost for the Chicago Bulls [4:30] in their game a couple nights ago, and they're playing Toronto, [4:34] and they're losing by 19 points in the second quarter. [4:38] came back and they're going to face a Miami Heat team here who just looks like they've not been [4:46] the same all year. In fact, dead last in point spread. That's right. Dead last of the Miami Heat [4:52] in their point spread record. They had a chance to earn their way in to face a Boston Celtics team [4:58] who, you know, they took to a last shot in a game last year in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. [5:04] Now they're going to have to face a team here in the Bulls that have absolutely owned them here. [5:11] So Zach Levine scored his 39 points in the second half in that rally. [5:18] DeMar DeRozan, boys, he looked good when he's played the Heat. [5:23] They've won all three games against the Heat this season, including two of them in Miami. [5:28] They've averaged 114 points per game against Miami, [5:32] averaged shooting over 51% in those games here. [5:37] Miami's got a problem. [5:38] I mean, they need to score, and when they put Kyle Lowry, [5:41] who can't move anymore, or they put Tyler Hero and Max Struess on the floor, [5:48] any of those two of the three or all three at the same time, [5:51] they're just too deficient defensively to stay on this court. [5:54] Also, they're going to have to find a way to stop, like I mentioned, the big three of Chicago. [6:01] The top three scorers from Chicago have gone wild. [6:04] So what do they do? [6:05] Jimmy Butler's going to have to match up against Levine, also DeRozan. [6:10] And whoever that leaves open is going to have a big game. [6:14] Patrick Beverly, since they put him into the starting lineup, stabilizing force. [6:20] And a lot of people don't remember this. [6:21] He was cut by the Miami Heat. [6:23] That was the first team that he tried out for, and he holds it. [6:27] He talks about it all the time. [6:30] He takes it personal. [6:31] He talks smack to their bench, to their coaching staff here. [6:36] It's allowed Alex Caruso to come off the bench and spot the Bulls at both guard spots, [6:42] and he's been effective here. [6:44] Five and a half points here? [6:46] Wrong team favorite. [6:48] Even though I'm going, hey, I fear the worst. [6:50] I like Chicago Bulls here, plus the five and a half. [6:53] against my Miami Heat.”
MIA 102, CHI 91 — Heat beat the Bulls 102-91 in the Eastern Conference 8-seed play-in game on April 14, 2023, on Max Strus's 31 points; Chicago lost by 11, missing the +5.5 spread (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [7:53] the Birmingham Stallions minus five and a half versus the Generals. [7:56] Break it down for us, Lee. [7:58] Yeah, so it starts with the coaching staffs. [8:01] And coaching staffs couldn't be more different. [8:05] Mike Riley, head coach for the New Jersey Generals, I think he's done. [8:09] I mean, he packed it in years ago after he was let go by the Nebraska Cornhuskers. [8:14] On the other side, we have a coaching staff that I still think is pretty darn good for [8:19] the Birmingham Stallions. [8:21] Birmingham Stallions [8:22] I just think that they just take it more seriously Skip Holtz head coach and offensive coordinator John Chavis you familiar with him Many years in the SEC and offensive coordinator for LSU many other teams [8:36] So these are guys that know what it takes to get the job done. [8:40] And then let's look at the rosters. [8:42] And the rosters here couldn't be more different. [8:45] Starts with the quarterbacks. [8:47] USFL's Birmingham Stands have Alex Magoo, played at Florida International, [8:51] was with Seattle for like three years. [8:54] Bo Scarborough, you know him from Alabama. [8:57] Bobby Holly, one of the best fullbacks. [8:59] C.J. Marble, really good running back from Coastal Carolina. [9:04] I mean, Jay Sternburner, tight end from Texas A&M. [9:09] Solid out there. [9:11] And then on defense, linebacking positions, boy, are they strong. [9:15] They start off, they've got Elijah Sullivan, kid from Kansas State, all over the ball. [9:21] He is really, really good. [9:22] They also have a couple other guys you're familiar with also. [9:27] Quinton Pulling, guy from Ohio University. [9:29] I think this guy had like one year, like 150, 160 tackles. [9:34] Scooby Wright from Arizona. [9:36] I mean, loaded. [9:38] Even their special teams are good here. [9:41] So you got two teams. [9:43] You figure, hey, 9-1, line's going to be tight. [9:46] No, they know something. [9:47] The line is five and a half points here. [9:49] The Birmingham Stallions here. [9:53] Blowout special on Saturday night over the New Jersey Generals.”
BHM 27, NJ 10 — Birmingham Stallions beat the New Jersey Generals 27-10 on April 15, 2023, in their 2023 USFL season opener at Protective Stadium; Birmingham's 17-point margin covers the -5.5 spread (Wikipedia).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [11:46] Max Blessed Holloway minus 185 versus Arnold. [11:49] Almighty Allen, break it down for us, Lee. [11:52] Yeah, main event Saturday's UFC Fight Night. [11:55] Fight of biblical significance here as Max Blessed Holloway takes on Arnold Almighty Allen. [12:03] 145-pound men's featherweight division. [12:06] 31-year-old Holloway, 19-7 in the UFC, 23-7 overall. [12:11] former division champ who has been able to dominate virtually every fighter in the division, [12:18] except for Alexander Volkanovsky, who is ranked by many as the number one pound-for-pound fighter on this planet right now, [12:27] lost three times to him. [12:28] All three of them were close fights. [12:30] Holloway, minus 180 favorite, one of the very best boxers. [12:35] It's moved up to 185 in the UFC. [12:37] He had a 14 fight winning streak in the division from 2014 to 2019 He He also only been finished once in his career when he was 21 years old [12:49] His opponent, 29-year-old Allen, is impressive. [12:53] I mean, 10-0 in the UFC. [12:55] What they try to do is they try to have these young up-and-comers [12:58] as they're making their way up, fight guys that, you know, [13:01] may not be champions but still big name and still have talent. [13:06] 19-1 overall, but Allen has never faced a fighter of Holloway's experience and caliber, [13:13] and this, I think, is going to be a learned experience for him. [13:16] Some of Holloway's experience here, he's competed in eight UFC championship fights. [13:21] He's defended and defeated four former champs, including three lightweight champs, Pettis, Edgar, and Oliveira. [13:28] Also, six of his seven losses are to UFC champs. [13:32] And Allen broke his hand numerous times, including breaking both of them in his second to last fight. [13:38] And never has been truly taken into deep waters in fights. [13:42] And Allen, I think he's going to be tough early. [13:46] He'll have some calf kicks. [13:47] Hand speed is pretty good. [13:50] Toughness. [13:50] But I see Holloway, who has incredible cardio and striking output. [13:55] I think he's going to take over in the later rounds, throwing hands this way and that way. [14:01] and I'm going to go with Blessed Holloway here. [14:04] He takes the win over Almighty Allen.”
Max Holloway defeated Arnold Allen by unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47) in the main event of UFC on ESPN 44 on April 15, 2023; Holloway's moneyline pick cashes (Wikipedia).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Predators minus 121 with the take back being [3:54] plus 106 for Minnesota. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Q, there's not much left to play [3:59] for in the NHL postseason race at this point, and teams are likely to let some minor league [4:06] players get some experience. [4:08] But I think there is a bit of an edge in this game. [4:10] As of Tuesday night, the Nashville Predators had to win their last two games and see Winnipeg [4:17] lose their final two games to make the postseason. [4:20] Nashville won their games, but the Jets beat this Minnesota Wild team to ruin Nashville's [4:26] shot of getting into the postseason. [4:28] So this is the Predators here, first game since being eliminated. [4:33] And it's important to look back at the last few months of the year to get a real feel for a team now that just how they're going to perform on a certain given night. [4:45] So the Predators lost Roman Hosey, Ryan Johansson, Matt Duchesne, and Flip Forsberg to injuries about a month ago. [4:54] Those are their four best players. [4:56] I mean, it's not even close by a mile. [4:58] Yet somehow this team filled with basically minor league players contended for a spot in the West. [5:04] It was a great experience for these kids, but they have to be downright exhausted. [5:10] Soros, the goaltender, played in almost every single game for the last month and will likely be out for this one. [5:16] Minnesota is on their last game of the regular season and doesn't want to match up with Colorado here on a mini losing streak. [5:25] So I don't expect them to play all their starters, [5:29] but I think they're going to go hard at least for a couple periods here. [5:33] And I do think that the stress here will come back to Nashville, [5:39] and it's going to haunt them for what they've had to go through [5:42] to even stay in contention here. [5:44] We're going to go with our wrong team favored, number one. [5:48] Today on Thursday, Minnesota Wild money line here, [5:52] plus 106 over the Nashville Predators.”
NSH 4, MIN 3 — Predators beat the Wild 4-3 in overtime on April 13, 2023, on Juuso Parssinen's OT goal; Minnesota's moneyline pick loses (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:38] The Yankees money line minus 144 with the take back for the Twins plus 128. [6:42] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:43] Yeah, the Twins are scrapping by here in the early going at the top of the AL Central after a series win over the White Sox this week. [6:53] And it has not come through the offense. [6:56] There were a lot of question marks about their pitching staff coming into the season while the offense was supposed to be the strongest group. [7:03] But Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, who they acquired from the Miami Marlins, and this young guy, Joe Ryan, have led the way. [7:11] Ryan was a pretty highly touted prospect last season, and he pitched well, but he was limited to shorter starts. [7:19] This year he pitched 12 innings with 16 strikeouts and a 375 ERA and four of his five total earned runs came in one inning against the Astros So against a good team and all in one inning [7:32] It's important not just to look at an ERA. [7:34] Look closely at every single inning at every single start. [7:39] So he's really, I think, a strong candidate for the rotation [7:43] if they get into postseason. [7:45] I like what he's done so far. [7:46] But I'm more interested here in the Yankee starter, Johnny Brito. [7:52] Brito is a 25-year-old kid who replaced Frankie Montez due to injury, [7:58] and he has pitched really well from the eye test. [8:01] Ten innings, eight strikeouts, three walks, and just one earned run, and a .800 whip. [8:08] But we're really starting to get enough of a sample size from these pitchers [8:13] that you have the numbers to really look deeper into and get a better snapshot of what they're all about. [8:19] So despite his 0.90 ERA, Brito has an expected ERA of 5.08 and an expected slugging percentage against at .455, [8:33] both of which are far below average. [8:35] He's facing probably the most talented lineup he's faced all season. [8:39] and I think it's going to give him problems here. [8:42] With the Twins carrying the fourth-best reliever ERA in baseball, [8:46] don't have to worry about the back end of a game here. [8:49] I think a small lead is pretty sustainable here. [8:53] Wrong team favorite. [8:54] Yep, I said it. [8:55] I'm going against the New York Yankees. [8:57] Minnesota Twins, money line, plus 28 over the Bronx Bombers.”
NYY 2, MIN 11 — Twins beat the Yankees 11-2 on April 13, 2023, scoring nine runs in the first inning on homers by Michael A. Taylor, Edouard Julien, and Carlos Correa; Minnesota's moneyline pick cashes (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [10:28] Rafa gifted Garcia [10:29] minus 250 with the take back [10:32] being plus 200 for Clay the Carpenter [10:34] Guida. Break this one down for us Lee [10:36] So Clay Guida is [10:38] I believe going to be in the UFC Hall of Fame [10:40] He is a brawler [10:42] If you look him up [10:44] as soon as you see his picture you're like oh I've [10:46] seen this guy fight before [10:47] He is one of these guys with his long [10:50] hair and he gets cut up in fights [10:52] There's usually blood by the [10:54] end of the first round and [10:55] he lets it all hang out [10:57] When you watch his fight, whether he wins or loses, you get your money's worth. [11:02] So he going to come out and Rafa the same way He likes to mix it up but sometimes doesn have the gas tank to finish So you figure you got Guida who 41 going up against a younger fighter here Rafa Garcia [11:18] And Rafa Garcia, how much younger is he than play? [11:23] A lot. [11:24] 28. [11:26] Just has not fought guys who are experienced. [11:28] And on top of that, so I think the gas tank is important. [11:32] We know Guida can go, you know, a long, long time and not get tired and lets it all hang out. [11:41] Rafa does tire out. [11:42] And also I've noticed that the judges like Clay Guida. [11:46] So, so many times these fights, they come down to a decision, which I think this probably will. [11:52] The only way I think Rafa wins this fight here is he's going to have to submit Clay Guida. [11:57] Once in a while, Clay leaves himself open for submission. [12:00] But these two guys, they like to bang. [12:04] And I don't know if anyone's going to get knocked down with a punch. [12:09] And with that being said here, with the decision, they just seem to like him. [12:13] So you've got to figure out who these judges like if it's going to come down to a decision. [12:18] There's been so many bad decisions out there. [12:20] In fact, Clay Guida, in fact, won one of his last five fights by decision, which I thought he probably lost. [12:27] So I'm taking everything into consideration. [12:29] I think the line's too high here. [12:31] I'm going to go with Clay Guida here. [12:34] Wrong fighter. [12:36] Favored over gifted Rafa Garcia.”
Rafa García defeated Clay Guida by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC on ESPN 44 (Holloway vs. Allen) on April 15, 2023; Guida's moneyline pick loses (Wikipedia).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [3:33] Sung Lae Im to finish as the top South Korean in the tournament. [3:38] And the line on it is plus 155. [3:41] Again, Sung Lae Im to finish as a top South Korean in the tournament. [3:45] Whitley, break this one down for us. [3:47] Okay so I watch the entire Masters every single minute One of the great things about having ESPN Plus is you can watch certain holes You just want to watch certain holes [3:57] You can watch certain golfer matchups. [4:00] They give you it all. [4:01] I hate to say this, but I don't like to promote anyone, [4:07] but ESPN Plus for $100 for a year is a steal. [4:11] I watch college baseball, and you can watch anything. [4:15] So it is really, really good. [4:17] And watching Sung Le'Him, he looked good the last couple rounds. [4:23] Now, this is a matchup against him, Tom Kim, Siwoo Kim, and K.H. Lee. [4:30] All he has to do is beat three other golfers. [4:33] And there's something that I really like. [4:36] And when studying him and finding as far as, you know, what type of form that he's been in. [4:43] So last two years in this tournament, he's finished tied for 21st and also tied for 13th. [4:52] So he's done well on this course. [4:54] These golfers generally a lot of long ball hitters, but he's one of these guys that, you know, you get fairly close. [5:01] Most of these courses, you know, 72 to 7,400 yards. [5:06] This one's 7,200 yards. [5:08] He's a, you know, he's, I wouldn't say he's one of the 10 longest hitters, [5:14] but when you look at scoring average in relation to par, [5:20] very important to get someone who does well hitting the ball between 175 to 200 yards out, [5:28] which is a pretty popular distance for second shots on the course. [5:33] And M is right up there. [5:34] He's top 10, and he's going to have a lot of shots in that range. [5:39] And just feel that he's in top form right now, [5:42] and I like a guy that's playing better, has confidence, [5:45] and I think he keeps it up. [5:47] He's played well on this course here. [5:49] So just has to beat three other golfers. [5:51] We're going to go with Sung Le M here, plus 155 on FanDuel [5:56] to beat the other three South Korean golfers.”
At the 2023 RBC Heritage, Sungjae Im finished T7 at -13, while Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim missed the cut and K.H. Lee finished T41 at -6; Im was clearly the top South Korean of the four named golfers (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:38] The Braves minus 1.5 Reds minus 120 versus Cincinnati. [6:42] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:43] All right, so Spencer Strider goes here, one of my favorite pitchers. [6:47] 1-0, 2-45 ERA on the mound here. [6:50] They've won both of Strider. [6:53] Atlanta starts this season. [6:55] They beat Washington 7-1 and San Diego 7-6. [7:00] Last year, he was 11-5 with a .267 ERA in 31 games. [7:06] And those 20 starts against the Reds last year, 1-0 with a .113 ERA in the two starts here. [7:15] So, Atlanta, a lot of hitting, 4.8 runs per game this year. [7:20] They've hit 15 home runs. [7:22] Love the way Matt Olsen's starting off. [7:24] 319 here, four home runs, 12 RBIs. [7:27] Ronald Lacuna Jr., 340 batting average. [7:31] He has 17 hits and five stolen bases, so he's making it happen here. [7:36] This Reds team they were close the first two games of the series but I just can trust them They were 1 in their last 11 road games against a right starter and the Braves 23 the last 27 home games against a team [7:52] with a losing record here. [7:54] We're going to go with a blowout special. [7:57] Atlanta Braves minus the 1.5, minus 120 here over the Cincinnati Reds.”
ATL 5, CIN 4 — Braves beat the Reds 5-4 on April 12, 2023, on Eddie Rosario's go-ahead 8th-inning home run; Atlanta's 1-run margin misses the -1.5 run line (ESPN).
“The FanDuel.com line is Pelicans minus 5.5 versus OKC. [10:34] Break this one down for us. [10:36] Yeah, and I'm going to take the team just like last night. [10:39] We saw these two underdogs. [10:41] Atlanta, nothing to lose. [10:43] You know, they had won, I think, three of the last 17 games against the Heat. [10:48] What do they do? [10:49] They win the game outright. [10:50] In Minnesota, nothing to lose. [10:52] They take the game to overtime. [10:53] probably should have won the game if they didn't collapse in the fourth quarter. [10:57] So I think this Oklahoma City team kind of in the same mode. [11:02] If it was a pick-em, oh, I may not take them, [11:04] but you're getting five and a half points here. [11:06] So this is a team that can score. [11:09] They closed the season with back-to-back wins to finish the regular season [11:14] on a really positive note. [11:16] They beat the Memphis Grizzlies, in fact, in that final to finish 40-42, [11:21] which is a huge accomplishment for a team that was nowhere winning like 15 to 25 games just the last couple of years. [11:28] So I see a team that you know there a lot to like here and they can score They fifth in the league in scoring offense They average over 117 points per game this year [11:42] Surprisingly, 14th in rebounding here. [11:45] Need to share the ball a little bit more, 21st in assists. [11:49] But they're not horrendous in defense, 19th in the league in scoring defense. [11:54] So they have a couple guys here, an Alexander and Dort, [11:58] that can make big shots when they need to, Josh Giddey. [12:01] He's a guy that does everything. [12:04] Averages at the point guard 16.6 points per game, [12:07] 7.9 rebounds from a point guard, and 6.2 assists. [12:12] If their bench plays decent, if they just aren't horrendous, [12:16] I think they're in a good spot here. [12:17] They're 15th in the league, hitting 12.13s per game, [12:21] 17th in three-point shooting. [12:25] And it wasn't like they were winning games, [12:27] He's hitting 50 or 55% from three-point land at the end of the season. [12:32] So they're pretty darn consistent here. [12:35] Pelicans, 15th in the league in scoring. [12:37] You think of them as a scoring team. [12:39] They don't match up with Oklahoma City. [12:41] They average just 114 points per game, 13th in rebounding here, [12:47] decent assists, 11th in assists. [12:49] But, you know, this is a team, [12:51] I think they're waiting for their star to come back here. [12:53] And Zion looks like, see pictures, he's eating the team out of house and home while he's been out. [13:01] So, yeah, I just think that the underdog is the right side here. [13:05] We're going to go with a level one lock here on Wednesday. [13:09] We're going to take the Oklahoma City Thunder plus the points against the New Orleans Pelicans”
OKC 123, NOP 118 — Thunder beat the Pelicans 123-118 in the Western Conference 9-10 play-in game on April 12, 2023, on Josh Giddey's triple-double; Oklahoma City won outright, comfortably covering the +5.5 spread (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [4:15] The Rangers minus one and a half runs, minus 134 versus Kansas City. [4:18] Break this one down for us, Lee. [4:19] Yep, I used to call them the Texas Rangers, but not yet. [4:23] They're hanging there. [4:24] They're above .500. [4:26] And I think they have a chance to maybe get off to not only a good start, [4:30] they could end up with a winning record here after 40 or 50 games. [4:33] Jacob deGrom, he's the main reason. [4:36] He has really settled in since that first start. [4:40] Yeah, he opened up the season. [4:41] And, you know, sometimes that first game, there's just so much pressure. [4:45] And it takes even an ace one to two starts to get into his groove. [4:49] He struggled against Philly in that season opener. [4:51] but he had 11 strikeouts in just one run against a really good Baltimore lineup in his last start. [4:57] And now he gets a chance at maybe the worst lineup in baseball early part of the season so far. [5:03] The Kansas City Royals. [5:04] Kansas City is averaging 2.63 runs per game right now. [5:09] That's it. [5:10] They're dead last in batting average against right-handed pitching at 175, [5:15] and they rank 28th in batting average away from home at just 198. [5:20] Another important thing to note when you're betting the minus one-and-a-half runs here on a team, [5:27] especially at home, you're not going to get that last at bat. [5:30] So the bullpen is actually very important. [5:34] As much as we'd like to see Jacob deGrom throw nine innings of shutout baseball, [5:38] probably unlikely. [5:40] The biggest reason for the Rangers' turnaround over this year has been their bullpen. [5:44] That's right. [5:45] A 193 reliever ERA is good for third in the league. [5:49] I don't think we've ever seen that in our lifetime. [5:52] They have four relievers who have multiple appearances this year without allowing a run, [5:57] and I think it might extend for another couple games. [6:00] And a guy to keep an eye on is Dane Dunning. [6:02] He was a starter for the early part of his career, but starting out in the bullpen this year, [6:08] he's been used as a two- to three-inning guy, but has over nine innings of work this season, [6:14] and he's allowed just six hits and one unearned run. [6:18] It's important to have a lockdown reliever like that, [6:21] especially behind your ace. [6:23] And a lot of times head coaches, what they do as managers, [6:26] they want to make sure their ace is going to have the best reliever behind them [6:31] in a close game. [6:32] So they want to keep his psyche up, and they want to win that game here. [6:36] So I don't think we'll get another impressive outing here from Kansas City's side [6:42] as far as the pitcher, Jordan Lyles, heavy fly ball pitcher [6:45] who's facing a powerful lineup in Kansas City's bullpen. [6:49] It's already so depleted that they actually threw a position player [6:54] on the mound last night in a blowout. [6:56] This one here should be over from the first pitch. [6:59] We're going to go with the Texas Rangers minus the one-and-a-half runs, [7:05] minus 134, blowout special.”
TEX 8, KC 5 — Rangers beat the Royals 8-5 in 10 innings on April 11, 2023, on Jonah Heim's home run, with Jacob deGrom striking out nine; Texas's 3-run margin covers the -1.5 run line (ESPN).
“Tampa Bay, Moneyline, minus 146 versus Toronto. [8:06] Break this one down for us, Lee. [8:08] Yeah, there's only one playoff series matchup that we already know in this year's postseason, [8:13] and it's going to be these two teams here, the Lightning against the Maple Leafs. [8:17] So we have a bit of a preview in this one. [8:20] and the situation of motivation all favor one side. [8:23] Tampa Bay is the one with the most maybe well-run organizations in the NHL. [8:30] They've been to the Stanley Cup three straight years. [8:33] They're the class of the league, and they were expected to contend again this season, [8:37] but they've struggled in the second half. [8:40] They're just three and seven in the last ten games largely [8:42] because they've been set in the playoff positioning, I believe, [8:47] and they've been able to rest guys. [8:49] But don't you think this team is going to come out flying tonight to give their fans a bit of a sign of things to come? [8:56] I do. [8:57] The other thing in this, Toronto doesn't want injuries before this big matchup. [9:02] They've had some good injury luck this season, but it has hit them recently in the goaltending room. [9:07] Matt Murray is out with an injury, and the Leafs played last night against the Panthers, [9:12] and it was an end-to-end battle back and forth that wasn't settled until the end of overtime. [9:19] So I think they really expended a lot of energy, [9:23] even though they're just flying about a 40, 45-minute flight to Tampa. [9:27] I think it's a tough, tough back-to-backer here. [9:31] They could be starting a minor league goalie on a professional triad in this one. [9:35] That's what I believe is going to happen against a ticked-off Lightning team [9:39] trying to gear up for the first-round playoff matchup. [9:42] Give me the home team here. [9:44] You're going to be able to turn this one off by early in the third period here. [9:47] two 4-1 bolts here. [9:49] So we're going to go with blowout special number two, [9:53] Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline minus 146 over the Toronto Maple Leafs.”
TOR 4, TB 3 — Maple Leafs beat the Lightning 4-3 on April 11, 2023, as call-up goalie Joseph Woll made 46 saves; Tampa Bay's moneyline pick loses (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [11:02] The Heat minus 4.5 versus ATL. [11:04] Break this one down for us, Lee. [11:06] All right, so there's a lot of teams that have underachieved, [11:09] and the Heat is one of them. [11:10] But I truly believe the Atlanta Hawks have underachieved even more. [11:15] If you look at their lineup, they're top eight, nine guys to play. [11:18] This should be a top 10 team. [11:20] I'm not saying they should be first or second, [11:22] but they should certainly be top four or five in their conference here. [11:26] And it has not happened. [11:28] Now in the matchup between these two teams, what has been the difference? [11:32] Well, the Heat has absolutely shut down what has been an Atlanta team [11:39] that usually scores and scores early and often so in this matchup what we're going to see is we're [11:45] going to see Atlanta I think that they've got to get out to a fast start they have had trouble [11:50] against the Miami Heat in the playoffs and also in the regular season So what happened So they got some problems as far as turnovers [12:02] Turnovers has been an absolute bugaboo. [12:06] And defense also. [12:08] Defense has not been there. [12:09] They made a coaching change. [12:11] And then the biggest difference is Trey Young. [12:15] He just can't get it going against this Miami Heat team. [12:18] In fact, for the calendar year, he shot 30.3% with 49 turnovers in the last eight games against the Heat. [12:28] So that's not going to get it done. [12:31] They held Young to get this. [12:35] Eight points, 18 below his average on two for 13 shooting in the last meeting in the matchup on March 4th. [12:42] He has scored in single digits just 18 times in 353 games. [12:48] that shows you what kind of job that Miami's done here. [12:51] Now, Miami's going to a different lineup. [12:54] So they made a change about seven, eight games ago. [12:58] They're starting, obviously, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Hero. [13:02] And midseason, they moved in Vincent at the guard spot and Max Struess. [13:07] They've only played 78 minutes together, [13:10] but they've outscored teams by 20 points in those minutes here [13:13] while shooting over 55% from the field and almost 39% on threes here. [13:19] I just think that the Miami Heat coaching staff is just better than Atlanta. [13:23] I'm going to lay the four-and-a-half points here. [13:26] I'm going to go with a level-two lock.”
ATL 116, MIA 105 — Hawks beat the Heat 116-105 in the Eastern Conference 7-8 play-in game on April 11, 2023, behind Trae Young's 25 points, claiming the 7 seed; Miami lost outright, missing the -4.5 spread (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [5:31] Minnesota minus one and a half goals, minus 120 versus Chicago. [5:35] Break this one down for us. [5:36] Yeah, there aren't a ton of teams with a lot to play for in the final week of the regular season, [5:41] but Minnesota Wild have some motivation here. [5:44] A win tonight and a Dallas loss would put the Wild in a tie for second place in the Central Division [5:51] and a chance at home ice advantage in the first round. [5:54] Meanwhile, the Chicago Blackhawks are in a great spot to keep tanking for that first overall pick, [6:02] and they are doing an incredible job of it. [6:05] In fact, they're 1-10 in the last 11 games, giving up an average of 4.54 goals per game, [6:11] and have only scored, get this in the last 11 games, 20 goals. [6:15] Every single one of those 10 losses has been by multiple goals, [6:20] and it can't be more obvious that this team has given up. [6:24] Minnesota got Kirill Kasparov back from injury this week, [6:29] and he has a couple games now to settle into the lineup. [6:33] This team still isn't 100% healthy, [6:36] but they have Marc-Andre Fleury here playing the best hockey of his season, [6:41] and they've won the last eight matchups with the Blackhawks. [6:45] I don't think they'll take this one lightly with the postseason on the horizon. [6:49] I think we're going to see something like a 5-2 final score here tonight. [6:53] We're going to go with our first blowout special of the day. [6:57] Minnesota Wild minus the one and a half goals, minus 120 over the Chicago Blackhawks.”
MIN 4, CHI 2 — Wild beat the Blackhawks 4-2 on April 10, 2023, with two goals from Johansson in the rally; Minnesota's 2-goal margin covers the -1.5 puck line (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [7:45] The Orioles minus 1.5 runs plus 114 versus the lowly Oakland A's. [7:49] Break this one down for me, Lee. [7:51] Yeah, Kyle Bradish here of the Baltimore Orioles, [7:54] one of those pitchers to watch in Major League Baseball this season. [7:58] He was 4-7 with a .483 ERA last year as a starter, [8:03] but his numbers were really split between the first half and the second half. [8:07] Early in the year, he came in as a rookie with no Major League Baseball experience, [8:12] and he went 1-5 with a 738 ERA before the All-Star break. [8:18] Once he had a few starts under his belt, [8:21] He finished the year with a 3-3 record with a 3-20-80 array to finish things off. [8:27] He started to figure out his slider, which was by far his best pitch at the minor league level. [8:33] And he showed that off in the first start this year with a solid outing against the Texas Rangers. [8:39] The Oakland A's, wow. [8:41] I mean, we might see some 1,000, 1,500 or less fans go to some of their games. [8:47] That's going to be interesting, some of the video we see as this continues. [8:51] And I think it's going to only get worse. [8:54] They are not cut to compete, even with Baltimore this season. [8:59] They're already off to a 2-7 start with a minus 45 run differential. [9:05] And they are, I mean, you talk about bad. [9:09] They just went into Tampa and lost the last two games 11 to nothing in both games. [9:17] The bullpen can't get out of innings. [9:19] The starters are struggling. [9:21] The hitting is abysmal with an average of just three runs per game so far. [9:25] Baltimore, I think, is a good team. [9:27] They're just in the toughest division in baseball so far. [9:31] That's why they're in last place in the ALE. [9:33] So I think they're going to move up in those standings real quick with this series. [9:36] I don't think things to last, expect them to last long in this game here, this series. [9:42] Take the Orioles minus the one and a half runs. [9:44] it's another second blowout special for monday baltimore minus one and a half runs plus 114”
BAL 5, OAK 1 — Orioles beat the Athletics 5-1 on April 10, 2023, with home runs from Rutschman, Mountcastle, and Hays; Baltimore's 4-run margin covers the -1.5 run line (ESPN).
“FanDuel line on this one The Rangers and Sabres over 6 goals [11:25] minus 124. Break this one down [11:27] for us, Lee. Alright, so just about everyone [11:29] expected Buffalo to fade [11:31] off during the last couple weeks of the season [11:33] as their playoff hopes [11:34] were vanished. But this team [11:37] could have [11:38] turned it around. [11:41] I mean, they just [11:43] just did not give up. [11:45] They're 6-3-1 last 10 games. [11:47] Even the game that I watched on Monday here in Miami, [11:51] they played well and probably should have won the game. [11:53] They had a ton of high-level danger chances here. [11:57] So their scoring is in the elite level. [12:00] Power play still hitting at a 20% or higher clip all season. [12:05] They're playing loose in fast-paced hockey. [12:08] They're still giving up a ton of high-danger chances on the defensive end here [12:13] and easy goals, but they're not having trouble putting up goals on their own end. [12:18] So they have a chance to play spoiler against the Rangers team tonight that's still trying [12:22] to figure out how to play at a slower style. [12:25] New York has hit the over six and a half goals in nine of the last 13 home games. [12:30] I don't see that changing here with a season finale here against Toronto on the line later [12:36] this week. [12:36] The Rangers just might be taking the night off here a little bit. [12:40] And that's a scenario for a ton of goals against a young team like the Sabres. [12:45] Both of these teams are averaging over 3.3 goals per game this late in the season. [12:50] And I think it's going to follow suit tonight here. [12:53] We're going to go with a level two lock to start on Monday. [12:57] New York Rangers, Buffalo Sabres over six and a half goals, minus 124.”
NYR 2, BUF 3 — Sabres beat the Rangers 3-2 in a shootout on April 10, 2023, with Mittelstadt scoring the tying goal and the shootout winner; the combined 5 goals falls under the 6.5 total (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [3:36] The Dodgers minus one and a half runs minus 130 versus Arizona Break this one down for us We going to look to stay just red hot in baseball And found one here that total mismatch [3:49] Clayton Kershaw against Madison Baumgartner. [3:53] Baumgartner would have been a premier pitcher in this matchup if he had stayed to form. [3:59] But this isn't a few years ago. [4:01] He has been in a steep decline here. [4:05] Kershaw has had some injury issues. [4:08] Baumgartner, I said, is a shell of his former self. [4:12] Kershaw left the World Baseball Classic early with an injury this year, [4:15] but it's looking like it was the right decision. [4:19] He came into the season healthy and looked young in his first start [4:22] against these same Diamondbacks in the season opener with nine strikeouts, [4:27] gave up just a solo home run, allowing in those six innings. [4:32] That's not a surprise with a young Diamondbacks here lineup [4:35] that is going to struggle against lefties this season, [4:38] But the Dodgers are quite the opposite. [4:40] L.A. is an experienced team, a ton of elite hitters on both sides of the plate, [4:45] and they have crushed lefties like Baumgartner for the last several years. [4:49] In his last five starts against L.A., Baumgartner just 1-4 with a 5.76 ERA, [4:57] including an absolute meltdown in his season debut against him the other night. [5:02] L.A. 16-5 in the last 21 against the Diamondbacks. [5:06] They own the Diamondbacks going 12 and nine against the minus one and a half run line in these matchups. [5:13] Also, I don't see how this shouldn't happen again here. [5:17] I'm going to go with the L.A. Dodgers minus the one and a half runs, minus one thirty. [5:22] Blowout special number one over the Arizona Diamondbacks.”
ARI 6, LAD 3 — Diamondbacks beat the Dodgers 6-3 on April 7, 2023, with Arizona getting a home run boost; L.A. lost outright, missing the -1.5 run line (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one, the Brewers' money line, minus 163 versus St. Louis. [6:07] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:09] Yeah, you're not going to find a starting pitcher in Major League Baseball [6:12] with a more misleading stat line in 2023 than Jack Flaherty. [6:18] He's the lone Cardinals pitcher to have a successful start this year, [6:22] which happened on April 1st against the Toronto Blue Jays [6:25] when he threw five innings of no-hit baseball. [6:29] The problem is his numbers were not good in that game. [6:33] Seven walks, just four strikeouts, and even hit a batter to boot. [6:39] Even 80% of the Blue Jays batted balls in that game were medium to hard hit contact. [6:46] Very important. [6:47] Can't just look at hits and runs given up. [6:50] You've got to look at the type of contact. [6:54] Very important in baseball. [6:55] Flaherty just got that lucky in that game. [6:58] that's not going to keep up if he doesn't find some command against this Brewer's offense. [7:04] But I think he'll struggle here. [7:06] Brewer's lineup has hit .290 against Flaherty in his career, [7:09] and he has a 5 ERA and 15 starts overall against them. [7:14] Brandon Woodruff, on the other hand, goes for Milwaukee here. [7:18] He continues to be as consistent as they come in baseball. [7:21] One earned run against the Cubs in six innings in his season debut and this was just a continuation of the end of his 2022 season dating back to September of last year [7:33] Woodruff 6-0 in his last six starts. [7:36] Even more impressive dating back to the start of 2022 season. [7:41] He's 12-1 in the last 13 starts at home. [7:44] Woodruff has had success against St. Louis in the past, [7:47] holding them to a 190 batting average against. [7:52] I think he keeps it up here today. [7:55] Blowout special number two, the Brew Crew, [7:58] the Milwaukee Brewers' money line, minus 163 over the St. Louis Cardinals.”
MIL 4, STL 0 — Brewers shut out the Cardinals 4-0 on April 7, 2023, behind Brandon Woodruff's four-hit ball into the sixth; Milwaukee's moneyline pick cashes (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [9:23] Shalon Nuremberg, minus 188 versus Steve Mean Machine Garcia. [9:28] Break this one down for us, Lee. [9:29] Well, the crowd is going to be crazy. [9:31] I mean, it is going to be something else there. [9:33] They have not had a UFC event in Miami in almost 20 years to the month. [9:39] So crazy it's been that long. [9:41] They did have, I think, a fight night in Fault Lauderdale where the Panthers play about four years ago. [9:48] But the crowd is going to be charged. [9:51] And, hey, if I'm Steve Garcia, I come out with a 22-Berr Reynolds jersey mean machine, you know, get the crowd fired up. [9:59] So it's a 145-pound men's featherweight division fight, 28-year-old Nurimbecki, 3-1 in the UFC, 39-10 overall. [10:11] I don't know if you'll ever see a guy 28 years old with a total of 49 fights. [10:15] This will be his 50th fight. [10:17] Tremendous amount of experience for a guy who has shown actually improvement almost every outing. [10:22] He is a physical specimen. [10:25] As we said, the fights start about 6.30 Eastern time. [10:30] So if you get a chance, check this out. [10:33] This isn't part of the pay-per-view. [10:35] So you can watch it, bet it, and hopefully win it. [10:38] The, like I said, physical specimen. [10:41] Grappling is incredible. [10:43] Real force also has power in his hands. [10:46] His only UFC loss was a very close decision to a talented fighter on his UFC debut. [10:51] 30-year-old Garcia, 2-2 in the UFC. [10:54] 13-5 overall. [10:56] He is reminiscent of the Beverly Hills Ninja, Jordan Wright. [11:00] Comes out like a bat out of hell and he goes for the KO around one seemingly every time That style actually worked for Garcia in his last outing but I believe that why Nurbecki here is a big favorite It a clash of styles [11:16] I see this, the last fight that Garcia had was a lucky break for him. [11:21] Wolverine, I think all he's got to do is survive an early onslaught, and Garcia will find himself [11:29] on his back on the wrong end of ground and pound and ultimately ending in a TKO [11:35] and possibly submission if Garcia gives up his back. [11:39] So this is just a bad matchup here for Mean Machine Garcia, [11:44] and this won't be like hitting the guards as Mean Machine takes what seems like [11:51] the longest yard back to his stool wondering what went wrong. [11:55] Maybe he'll get a win in the Adam Sandler version here. [11:58] We're going to go with the Wolverine, Shalane Nuremberg, the Wolverine. [12:03] He takes his opponent to the mat here, Steve Mean Machine Garcia, [12:09] and gets the win.”
Steve Garcia ("Mean Machine") knocked out Shayilan Nuerdanbieke ("Wolverine" — the fighter referred to on the show as Shalan Nurimbekov) by body kick and punches in round 2 at UFC 287 on April 8, 2023, in Miami; the ML pick on the Wolverine loses (Wikipedia).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:45] The Suns minus 7.5 versus Denver. [6:47] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:49] All right. [6:49] So you've got the number one and the number four teams. [6:52] These might be two of the top three teams in the West, [6:55] and a good chance if they both win their first-round matchups, [6:59] they're going to be facing off against each other. [7:02] And both of these teams need a win here to secure either that first position [7:06] for Denver or the fourth position here for the Phoenix Sun, [7:10] who are finally healthy. [7:11] Now, Jamal Murray will not play in this game, but I don't get it. [7:17] I mean, this Denver Nuggets team is still really good, [7:21] and I like the fact they're coming off good teams a really poor defeat. [7:26] They lost to the Houston Rockets the other night. [7:29] It was their third loss in four games. [7:31] They were outscored 38-18 in the fourth quarter. [7:34] Get this. [7:35] They committed 20 turnovers in the game. [7:40] They allowed 20 offensive rebounds. [7:43] You combine those two things, when they happen, [7:45] the chances of you winning are probably less than 1%. [7:49] So the coach, Michael Malone, was very upset after the game, [7:54] called his team soft. [7:55] I think they're going to come to play in this game. [7:58] They've got enough scoring. [7:59] I mean, Michael Porter Jr. can do it. [8:01] I'd expect the Joker to be back for this game. [8:03] He only had 14 points, 10 rebounds, and four assists in three blocks. [8:08] That's a really poor game here. [8:10] And here's the worst part. [8:12] He turned the ball over eight times. [8:14] I don't know if he's ever turned the ball over eight times since he started playing [8:18] when he was maybe five, six, seven years old. [8:22] That's when he started. [8:24] So, yeah, I know everyone's backed for Phoenix. [8:26] Denver, Devin Booker's playing well. [8:29] Chris Paul had one of his biggest games, scoring 22 points in a long time. [8:34] DeAndre Ayton even had 19 points, 11 rebounds his last game. [8:39] But I think these are two heavyweights going at it here. [8:42] I think both teams aren't going to let down at all here, [8:46] and I think it's a game that goes right down to the wire here. [8:49] We're going with the wrong team favorite. [8:51] Let's go with the Denver Nuggets here plus the 7.5 points.”
119-115 — Suns beat Nuggets 119-115; Denver's +7.5 spread covers, losing by only 4 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to roll Braves versus Padres. [9:48] We going to go over eight runs minus 110 Break this one down for us Lee Yeah so both of these offenses are off to really fast starts And both teams are in the top half of the league in OPS [10:00] The Braves rank 10th in runs per game at 5.33 runs per game. [10:04] And the Padres have started to heat up over the last two games. [10:07] On paper, this is a good pitching matchup between Spencer Strider and Blake Snell. [10:13] But I think the lineups here match up even better. [10:16] For starters, Spencer's first strider here was one of the best young pitchers we've seen a long time last year. [10:22] A lot of people are not familiar with him, the average person, but he had a 13-5 record and a 257 ERA. [10:29] But he really relies on strikeouts with his 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings, [10:35] which was evident against Washington in his season debut when he had nine strikeouts in six innings. [10:41] But I don't think he's going to play so well here against this Padres lineup for starters. [10:47] They have the fewest strikeouts in all Major League Baseball with 36 in six games. [10:53] And they're eighth in the league in batting average against righties at 268. [10:58] The Braves, on the other hand, should have no problem against Blake Snell. [11:03] The guy is just not the same pitcher he used to be. [11:05] He started last season poorly also. [11:08] One and five record, 522 ERA. [11:11] in the first half, and he came out this year letting up three runs [11:15] in four innings against an absolutely dreadful Rockies lineup. [11:20] The Braves, by the way, are one of the best teams in all of baseball, [11:24] hitting lefties here. [11:25] Take the over. [11:26] This is your kind of ball game here, Q. [11:29] This game might be over by the fifth or sixth inning. [11:33] Padres, Braves, over eight runs, minus 105, level one lock.”
7-6 — Braves beat Padres 7-6; the combined 13 runs clears the Over 8 (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one, the Golden Knights money line, minus 120 versus the Kings. [14:16] Break this one down for us, Lee. [14:17] So I think this is a fight between two teams headed in opposite directions, [14:22] even if you look at the standings. [14:24] Why do I say that? [14:26] I think things might change in the next 11 days when the postseason starts, [14:30] but it's hard to have a ton of confidence in the L.A. Kings right now. [14:36] Their league-best power play since the start of March has dried up. [14:40] They've gone one for 12 in the last five games, [14:43] and the offense has dried up with it scoring just nine goals in those five games The goaltending is still there but they have injuries all across the four groups and they have really thrown their chemistry This has thrown it absolutely off right now [15:00] The Golden Knights are humming right along in the meantime, 10-2-2 in the last 14 games. They've [15:05] scored three-plus goals in 12 of the last 14 games. Jonathan Quick, if you remember that name, [15:11] He has been one of the best trade deadline acquisitions here in the entire NHL. [15:17] Used to play for the LA Kings, and he has some serious motivation here playing against a team that traded him after he delivered two Stanley Cups to the doorstep of the city of LA. [15:31] The team in front of him, I think, is primed for a rebound here. [15:35] They dominated Nashville on national television in their last game, but blew the game with a silly penalty in overtime. [15:43] And their last matchup with the Kings team was a 5-1 defeat at home. [15:48] So they're going to be motivated. [15:49] Vegas has a chance to put a stranglehold on the Pacific Division here. [15:54] And I think they do it here. [15:55] Another game that you love, Q, you like these games when you've got like a two or three goal lead here in hockey. [16:03] You're going to get it here. [16:04] 4-1 final for the Vegas Golden Knights. [16:07] We're going with the Knights money line, minus 120 over the Kings.”
5-2 — Golden Knights beat Kings 5-2; Vegas Golden Knights moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [4:10] Rory McIlroy to win the Masters plus 700. [4:14] Break this one down for us, Lee. [4:15] Yeah, we've never given out a golf selection, but I followed a gentleman named Cam Rogers. [4:20] Very impressive. [4:21] his strength is golf. [4:23] He understands golf. [4:24] He gets the nuances. [4:26] And we were talking about it. [4:28] And, you know, here's one of the most likable guys, [4:33] not just a guy who's popular. [4:35] Outside of Tiger, I think he's the most popular guy right now [4:40] in the face of golf. [4:41] He plays the most events. [4:43] Tiger picks and chooses events he wants to play in. [4:47] And he's a likable guy. [4:49] He's super talented. [4:51] He is on a roll. [4:54] So here, when you're looking to pick a Masters winner, [4:58] there's a lot of things that you need to factor in here. [5:02] A lot of keys and trends to find that winner. [5:07] Ten of the last ten winners were top 25 in the world. [5:10] So someone's not going to come from nowhere and win the Masters. [5:14] Too much pressure. [5:15] it's a different golf course than almost any other course. [5:20] And also, someone not only had 10 of the last 10 winners were in the top 25, [5:26] they were at least in the top 15 in the last seven events. [5:31] At least a top 10 and a 20 finish in the prior Masters [5:37] and finished top 30 in at least one of the two previous events. [5:42] So usually someone that's on form, Rory McIlroy, he checks all the boxes. [5:47] Additionally, he's top 65 in strokes gained around the green. [5:54] Also, strokes gained off the tee, and nine of the last ten winners were inside the top 65 there in that category. [6:03] Rory McIlroy, he dominated Augusta last ten years, ranked second in strokes gained total. [6:09] He's also the leader on tour in driving distance and second in strokes gained. [6:15] Tee to green over the last 50 rounds. [6:17] His game just absolutely looks fantastic of late and last week in match play. [6:24] And I think he's going to complete here the career Grand Slam this week. [6:28] We're going to go with Rory McIlroy here. [6:32] Plus 700 to win the famed Augusta Masters Tournament.”
Rory McIlroy missed the cut at the 2023 Masters at 149 (+5); Jon Rahm won the tournament, so McIlroy's futures bet to win loses (Wikipedia).
“The FanDuel.com line on this one. [7:18] The Hawks minus 11 versus Washington. [7:20] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:21] So I think there's a good chance in this game Trey Young is not going to play. [7:25] and the public, the average betting public, [7:29] the average person is going to go, [7:31] oh, Trey Young's not going to play late, double digits? [7:34] Are you crazy? [7:36] But listen to this. [7:37] I'm going to make this statement, [7:38] and I may be one of the first ones to ever make this statement, [7:41] and I'm going to stand by this. [7:43] I think Trey Young is a cancer to Atlanta, [7:47] not to the level we've seen some of these other players [7:53] and say a guy you've got to get rid of him, [7:55] but I think they're better off without him. [7:58] He's a high-volume shooter, and on his three-point shot this year, [8:04] just 33.8%. [8:06] So you've got to hit in the mid to upper 30s, I think, to be successful. [8:11] He holds the ball a lot of times deep into the shot clock, [8:15] and they just seem to move the ball much better when he's not playing. [8:20] So they do not, they're sitting at eight right now. [8:24] They do not want to move to nine. [8:27] If you're nine in the play-in tournament, you've got to win the first game, [8:31] and then you move on and then go on the road [8:34] and have to beat the loser of the 7-8 game. [8:37] So I think it's a tough, tough order here. [8:41] Washington last night, we talked about it. [8:43] They got lucky. [8:44] They were really never in the game. [8:46] They shot in the game last night, get this 50.5%. [8:52] They also shot three-pointers, 48.1%. [8:56] Teams that want to get in the draft lottery usually don't have that type of shooting night here. [9:02] They're also going on the road. [9:04] This is a back-to-backer form. [9:06] I think Atlanta wins this game here easy. [9:10] Blowout special, Atlanta Hawks big time over the Washington Wizards.”
134-116 — Hawks beat Wizards 134-116; Atlanta's -11 spread covers with a +18 margin (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [10:06] The Blue Jays minus 188 versus Kansas City. [10:09] Break this one down for us, Lee. [10:10] All right, so we went with Kansas City on Monday in the first five innings. [10:14] They were up 7-1, cashed an easy winner. [10:18] But if you watch the rest of the game, the Toronto Blue Jays battled back, [10:23] and they made a game of it. [10:25] And since that time yesterday included they look really good here So I think this is a team that going to be ready to go I like backing pitchers after they had a rough outing [10:39] Alex Manoa is an absolute stud. [10:42] Last year, 16-7, 224 ERA. [10:47] First game of the year this year, opening day, in three and a third innings, [10:52] he allowed five runs on nine hits. [10:54] Studs like that, they bounce back on a consistent basis here. [10:59] They have a team batting average of 294. [11:02] Get this. [11:03] In the first five games, only one home run. [11:06] Vladimir Guerrero hit 32 last year and has had 80 over the last two years. [11:11] This might be the game where he breaks out here. [11:14] So it hasn't been the offense. [11:17] It's been the pitching here. [11:19] The Royals, as we said, jumped off to that 7-0 lead behind Brady Singer, [11:24] but he's not going here. [11:26] I think Zach Greinke is going to have trouble here. [11:28] I think that they're going to sit on his breaking stuff here. [11:31] Royals, they just not much of hitting here. [11:36] Just absolutely nothing got shut out in the first two games. [11:39] Hitting just 179, I think it's going to be a problem. [11:42] Goes on the entire season here. [11:44] So we're going to go with, on a Wednesday, level one lock here tonight. [11:48] The Toronto Blue Jays here over the Kansas City Royals.”
3-0 — Blue Jays beat Royals 3-0; Toronto Blue Jays moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one, the Bucs minus 13 versus Washington. [5:18] Break this one down for us, Lee. [5:19] So Milwaukee has won five the last seven, and in three of those games, [5:25] they scored 126, 144, and 149 points. [5:32] So when they get it going, look out. [5:34] They lost to Boston on Thursday, and after that game, [5:39] They pounded Philadelphia at home. [5:42] Now they're playing at Washington. [5:43] There's only four games left. [5:45] They want to win these first two, and then they just want to rest their guys on Friday [5:49] and Sunday against Memphis and Toronto and not show anything, be it full strength going [5:54] to the playoffs. [5:55] Washington, on the other hand, you talk about injuries. [5:59] They are going to be without a lot of key guys. [6:03] So they're going to play this game without Bradley Beal. [6:06] Seems like he gets shut down pretty much every year at the end of the year. [6:11] Kyle Kuzma, Monty Morris, and Christian Porzingis. [6:15] So their top four guys are not playing in the game. [6:20] Who's going to be playing for the Washington Wizards? [6:22] Okay, so I follow a lot of basketball. [6:25] I've heard of Johnny Davis. [6:27] He plays about 11 minutes a game, scores four points per game. [6:31] He's going to be one of the starters. [6:33] Daniel Gafford plays 20 minutes a game, averages eight points per game. [6:39] He's going to be starting. [6:41] Dion Wright from Utah, probably heard of him, plays 24 minutes, averages seven points. [6:48] He's going to be starting. [6:49] The only guy I've ever really followed that plays significant minutes, 28 minutes a game, [6:55] is Corey Kispert, and he's nothing special. [6:58] He's going to be playing and starting. [6:59] But listen to the guys that they picked up in the last two to three weeks. [7:05] Xavier Cooks got him from Australia. [7:09] They got a kid named Jay Huff. [7:11] He played four games, played at Virginia. [7:15] They're playing 12 guys per game. [7:18] That's it. [7:18] I mean, they're just throwing out guys, giving them 10, 15, 20 minutes. [7:22] They want to see what they got here. [7:24] So this Milwaukee team, they are rolling again. [7:29] And they're just going to make a statement here. [7:32] I think they can win this game by 30 to 40 points if they really want to. [7:36] So lay the 13. [7:37] A lot of people don't like laying double digits, but there is no reason for Washington to want to show up. [7:45] They lose their last games every single game. [7:47] May get a few more ping-pong balls in there and a chance to get a better and a higher draft pick. [7:53] So we're going to go with a blowout special. [7:56] Milwaukee Bucks big time over Washington on Tuesday night.”
140-128 — Bucks beat Wizards 140-128; Milwaukee's -13 spread busts with only a +12 margin (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [9:02] Carl Williams, minus 460 versus Chase the Vanilla Gorilla Sherman. [9:06] Break this one down for us, Lee. [9:08] Okay, so in the UFC, there's a lot of people that play parlays, [9:13] and I play a lot of parlays, two- and three-team parlays, [9:16] whereas normally you don't because the payback isn't there. [9:20] But you can put in, and you don't want to play big favorites straight up. [9:25] You don't want to lay almost five to one. [9:27] You don't want to lay $1,000 to win less than $200. [9:31] But if you do a two or three parlay and put in some favorites together it only one bet So let say you want to bet You can put together two or three guys and you can actually have plus money [9:44] Now, both of them or all three fighters have to win, [9:47] but I think this guy is free money, and no one has really talked about this guy. [9:52] So he took his first fight to get into the UFC in the Contender Series. [9:57] that's that show that's on every Tuesday night on the, you know, [10:01] if you have the app, you watch the UFC, they have that. [10:06] They fight every, I think they run once a year, [10:09] and they'll have like about five, six fights, [10:11] and you can find some prospects. [10:13] So Carl Williams is 33 years old, state high school championship wrestler, [10:19] and he actually fought at the same high school as another high school state [10:24] champion, another guy in the UFC named Cody Durden. [10:26] who some people have heard of. [10:28] This guy only started fighting in the UFC in 2019. [10:33] So he took the contender series fight on 10 days notice. [10:37] He beat a very good wrestler, a kid who fought at Penn State in a very good program, [10:47] and dominated him. [10:48] So on 10 days notice with a broken hand. [10:51] Then he fights his first fight, wins by a unanimous decision. [10:55] I think he's a late bloomer. [10:57] All of a sudden, they had him training down in Coconut Creek in South Florida, [11:01] getting a lot of experience. [11:03] So under the radar, he's the first fight, not of the early prelims, [11:07] of the prelims, fighting Chase, the vanilla gorilla Sherman. [11:12] And there's guys that are, you know, Jags, just another guy. [11:16] I think this guy is a tomato can. [11:18] So he's just not a good fighter. [11:21] He's 2-5. [11:22] This is his second stint here in the UFC. [11:25] Was 2-5 in the UFC, released. [11:28] He's 2-5 again. [11:29] He loses his fight. [11:30] He's done. [11:31] I don't think Carl Williams is going to knock him out. [11:34] He might submit him. [11:35] He's starting to learn some new submission techniques, [11:37] but he's going to win the fight. [11:39] He's going to win throwing punches. [11:42] He's going to win on ground attack. [11:44] Chase Sherman is not a wrestler. [11:46] Carl Williams gets him down once every single round. [11:49] That's going to be a win here. [11:50] So may not be fancy, but you want to put him, if you're going to have two, three or four parlays in UFC in the pay-per-view to 288 for Miami, you want to put him in some parlays here. [12:01] And he will be one of the focus of my main fighters. [12:04] And I'm going to put him in two or three parlays. [12:06] Carl, no nickname Williams here. [12:10] The hidden gem over Chase the Vanilla Gorilla Sherman.”
Karl (Carl) Williams vs Chase Sherman never happened: Sherman withdrew from UFC 287 the day of the event due to a medical issue and the bout was scrapped, so the moneyline is void (official UFC 287 card at ufc.com corroborated by Wikipedia).
“FanDuel.com line on this one, the Marlins minus 144 versus Twins. [15:12] Break this one down for us, Lee. [15:13] Yeah, so Sandy Alcantara, very familiar with him. [15:17] pitcher for Miami, Cy Young winner. [15:19] And he opened up, he was the opening day starter for the Marlins against the Mets. [15:24] Pitched five and two-thirds, only gave up three hits, but gave up three runs, three earned [15:28] runs, no home runs at all, just gave up hits and very surprising four walks. [15:36] He was all over the place. [15:37] He just couldn't locate his pitches. [15:39] So, watching many times, he rarely has back-to-back bad starts here. [15:45] and usually his control is second to none. [15:48] So I expect him to bounce back here. [15:51] They're favored for a reason. [15:53] So their lineup, not great, but I think that they're going to have a big game. [15:57] Who are they facing here today? [15:59] They're going to be facing a pitcher who has done pretty much absolutely nothing [16:04] for the Minnesota Twins. [16:07] It's Kenta Mehta. [16:08] Kenta made a 6-5, but a 4-66 ERA in 2022. [16:17] Not a fast starter. [16:19] Had trouble last year. [16:21] Also, second half of the year, he also battled some injuries. [16:26] So I think that the Marlins are going to get to him early. [16:29] And I think they'll have probably 2-3-4 run lead going into the seventh inning. [16:33] And even though the Marlins' bullpen isn't great, it's going to be good enough. [16:36] And Alcantara, he'll pitch sometimes eight or nine innings. [16:39] So they need to win. [16:41] They're going to keep him in as long as his pitch count isn't above 105, 110 here. [16:46] So we're going to go with a level three lock on a Tuesday. [16:51] Let's keep going. [16:53] Let's keep rolling here. [16:54] My Miami Marlins here. [16:56] Money line minus 144 over the undefeated Minnesota Twins.”
1-0 — Marlins beat Twins 1-0 on a Sandy Alcantara complete game; Miami Marlins moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel line on this one The Yankees minus 174 with a take back plus 146 versus the Philadelphia Phillies Break this one down for us Lee All right so I think the Philadelphia Phillies pitching is going to be fine [4:18] Nolan didn't have a good starting outing his first game, but I think it's their hitting that's going to be the problem for them on the short term here. [4:26] So don't think that this lineup is ready to go and to hit. [4:31] I think eventually they will, but maybe the first couple weeks are going to be a funk. [4:35] A lot of teams, when you lose the World Series, you come back, [4:38] and it takes a while to get going. [4:41] Whereas the Yankees, I think the Yankees are on a mission. [4:44] Have this game, Nestor Cortez, he's going to be matched up against Juan Walker here. [4:49] Cortez, what a season he had last year out of nowhere. [4:52] 12-4 record, 244 ERA, and he did face the Phillies in one game. [4:58] In that game, he faced them. [5:00] He only gave up one run here. [5:02] So Phillies, I just think that even though they scored those 10 runs in the first series, [5:10] they got seven in the first game, didn't see much after that here. [5:14] I think the Yankees scoring well. [5:15] They're averaging over five runs per game. [5:18] I think they're going to be one of the most potent teams. [5:20] Aaron Judge is on fire. [5:22] A couple other players had subpar seasons. [5:25] I think that they're primed and motivated. [5:27] So I think they're going to come out of the gate strong here. [5:30] Philly coming off that brutal series where they went 0-3. [5:33] Might take them a game or two to recover. [5:35] They could win later in the series, but I don't think the opening game here. [5:39] We're going to go with the New York Yankees here, minus 174. [5:45] Blowout special here over the Fighting Phils.”
8-1 — Yankees beat Phillies 8-1; New York Yankees moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [7:28] The Diamondbacks' first five innings money line plus 118 for San Diego. [7:32] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:33] Yeah, I just have not been able to get a real read on some of these closures on these teams. [7:38] So why not play the first five innings? [7:40] You don't have to watch the whole game. [7:42] Perfect for you, Q. [7:44] You get a winner by five innings. [7:46] You can move on to the next game, collect your ticket. [7:48] And Ryan Weathers has been a prime fade candidate in the first two years in Major League Baseball here for the San Diego Padres. [7:58] 23-year-old, this kid was touted as a pretty solid pitching prospect coming up, but just hasn't connected for him yet. [8:06] He has a 549 ERA and 98 career innings, 37 walks, and has surrendered 20 home runs. [8:15] Ryan Nelson for Arizona, a bit different here. [8:18] He wasn some big prospect entering the big leagues but he been really impressive in his three starts Just a 147 ERA including one seven start of scoreless baseball against the same [8:32] Padres team in September. [8:33] I don't think the Padres have what it takes to make the World Series if Weathers is their [8:38] number four or five starter all season. [8:40] So I would expect some trades here to happen from them throughout the season. [8:45] Until then, I think this guy is a guy that we can pick on. [8:49] I'll leave the bullpens out of this one and stick to the first five innings. [8:52] We're going to go with the Arizona Diamondbacks. [8:56] First five innings, money line, plus 118 here over the Slam Diego Padres.”
2-3 — Padres led Diamondbacks 3-2 through 5 innings (Padres went on to win 5-4); Arizona's First 5 Innings moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [9:49] The Royals' first five innings money line [9:51] plus 110. First Toronto, break this [9:53] one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so Kansas City [9:55] got off to a really rough start [9:57] this season. They were shut out [9:59] the first two games [10:00] against a really top-heavy [10:03] Minnesota Twins pitching staff. [10:05] Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray shut them [10:07] down offensively, but I think [10:09] this series with Toronto is going to be far [10:11] different. First, Kansas [10:13] City is getting to face [10:15] maybe the most disappointing pitcher [10:17] in baseball in 2022 in Jose Barrios. [10:21] He had a 523 ERA, by far the worst among Major League Baseball pitchers last season, [10:26] and it was a variety of weaknesses in his game that led to such a poor season. [10:32] He gave up a career-high 29 home runs. [10:36] He had a 1.419 whip, which was the highest of his career since his rookie season, [10:42] and he ended the season with a horrible 636 ERA away from home. [10:48] Those issues here just don't resolve themselves over an offseason [10:53] in spring training. [10:54] He's got to build his confidence back up, [10:56] and I expect that to take a couple of starts in 2023. [11:00] He's facing a Royals lineup that actually matches up this year much better [11:05] against right-handed pitching than lefties, [11:07] and this is by far the worst pitcher they'll face so far in the young season. [11:11] Brady Singer, also a guy I'm buying low on in 2023. [11:16] Singer was the only Royals pitcher to win 10 games last year, [11:20] and he's expected to take over the number two or even the number one spot [11:24] from Zach Granke by season's end. [11:26] He had a career best in 2022 in ERA, whip and walks for nine innings, [11:32] and he's getting a Toronto team, I think, [11:35] that's coming off an emotional rollercoaster of a series [11:37] against the St. Louis Cardinals here. [11:40] This is another matchup where I don't trust the bullpen to hold the lead for the Royals. [11:45] So let's stick to the first five innings again. [11:48] Kansas City Royals, first five innings, money line, plus 110. [11:54] Wrong team favorite.”
7-1 — Royals led Blue Jays 7-1 through 5 innings (Royals went on to win 9-5); Kansas City's First 5 Innings moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [12:52] UConn minus 7 versus San Diego [12:54] State. Break this one down for us, Lee. [12:56] Yeah, San Diego State. I mean [12:58] everyone's kind of figuring [13:00] hey, we'll watch a little [13:02] bit of that game and get ready for the primetime event, UConn and Miami, but it turned out to be [13:08] one of the greatest games we've seen in Final Four history. They did not lead San Diego State [13:13] in the second half. They didn't lead until the final buzzer on the last shot. Why were they able [13:19] to hang into it? Offensive rebounding. They hit the glass hard, repeatedly got second and third [13:25] shots against an FAU team that came out blazing and found weaknesses. I think that UConn is going [13:32] to be able to exploit those weaknesses. [13:34] Also, the one advantage that San Diego State had over FAU, rebounding. [13:41] They're not going to have against UConn. [13:43] UConn, one of the tallest, most athletic teams we'll see. [13:48] If you watch the Miami game, they had guys spinning in the lane, [13:52] it looked like they were maybe going to have some openings, [13:54] and then there would be a 6'11", 7'1", just waiting in the lane for the Miami guys. [14:00] So San Diego State, they just don't have enough catch-and-shoot guys here, [14:05] and that's about the only way you can beat UConn. [14:08] They are playing their best basketball. [14:10] I think they win this game by double digits. [14:12] It might be close for a while, but I think eventually they win by double digits. [14:17] So we're going to lay the seven points here. [14:20] This is a very underrated UConn team. [14:23] How they were ranked 10th going into the final poll, we'll never know. [14:27] I had them go into the final four, and I think they get it done tonight here. [14:32] We're going to go with a level two lock to start off Monday. [14:36] The UConn Huskies, they cut down the nets again and defeat San Diego State here, Aztecs.”
76-59 — UConn beat San Diego State 76-59 in the national championship game; UConn Huskies -7 covers with a +17 margin (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [4:43] The Rockets, minus 5, minus 108, with the take back for the Pistons being plus 5, minus 112. [4:48] Break this one down for us, Lee. [4:49] Yeah, there's terrible and then there's terrible. [4:53] This is really bad. [4:54] I mean, you've got the two worst teams in the NBA slugging it out. [4:59] And I think that one team is going to make sure that they lose, [5:03] and that's the Detroit Pistons. [5:05] They have a two-game lead to get the first pick in the draft, [5:09] and they want it bad. [5:11] You don't get to just automatically get it. [5:14] You know, they have the lottery, but you get the most balls, [5:18] so it gives you the most prudent chance to get there. [5:22] So I just think that Detroit, when I watch them, there's bad and then there's really bad. [5:28] They've played a total of 14 games in the month of March. [5:33] They've won once. [5:34] Wow. [5:35] If you think it's just March, February wasn't much better. [5:39] They won two games all month in February. [5:42] In January, won three. [5:44] Their top two scores are out. [5:47] Cade Cunningham, he hasn't been back since I think it's early November. [5:52] So, I mean, Jaden Ivey, I mean, he's playing better, but he's a rookie here. [5:59] They're 28th in the league in scoring. [6:02] They're 20th in rebounding. [6:05] They're 27th in assists, 27th in scoring defense. [6:10] Bogdanovich, Bogdan Bogdanovich, he hasn't played in a while. [6:13] He'll be out. [6:14] He's your second leading scorer. [6:16] So, Jaden Ivey, nice little piece. [6:18] Bunch of other guys are out. [6:20] Alec Burks is out. [6:22] You know, they have so many injuries here, and Houston actually doesn't have injuries here. [6:28] They can score here. [6:29] They're playing at home. [6:31] Detroit's coming off a tough, tough stretch here, so I think they're in trouble here. [6:37] I think they're just going to lay down. [6:39] I'm not going to tell you they're going to lay down, but they're going to lay down tonight. [6:42] We're going to go with the Houston Rockets at home, hidden gem over Detroit.”
121-115 — Rockets beat Pistons 121-115; Houston covers -5 with a +6 margin (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [7:38] The Suns minus eight and a half versus Denver. [7:40] Break this one down, Forsley. [7:42] Yeah, so Denver's just playing out the string right now. [7:44] They've got first place really locked up here. [7:46] And they rested the Joker last night. [7:49] and what happened? They lost by, get this, 19 points at home to New Orleans. And I think it's [7:58] going to be bad again here tonight against Phoenix. Phoenix gets Kevin Durant back. He played in the [8:03] last game He was only five for 18 from the four And I tell people all the time a proponent of if you going to play a team when a key player comes back don play him on the first game Play him on the second game He looked a little hesitant I think he be back into the flow of things [8:19] They think he might play low 30 to mid 30 minutes in this ballgame here. [8:25] They need the game. [8:25] They're sitting at fourth. [8:27] They want to have the home court advantage in that first series against the Clippers, [8:31] so I expect them to go all out here. [8:34] This Nuggets team, it's been a great season. [8:36] Congrats here. [8:37] But the Phoenix Suns are coming on right now. [8:40] Like I said, nothing to play for. [8:44] Phoenix right now, they rank 13th in adjusted offense. [8:49] And those numbers are skewed because, you know, since they got Kevin Durant, [8:53] they're going to be much, much better. [8:55] So this is a scary good team. [8:57] Devin Booker has been almost unstoppable late. [9:00] over 30, 30.2 points per game on over 53.5% shooting over the field the last 10 games. [9:08] They're also 7-2 against the spread the last nine times against the Nuggets. [9:12] They own the Nuggets here. [9:14] Take a chicken nugget. [9:16] Take an extra one for good measure here. [9:19] I like the Phoenix Suns. [9:20] Don't be scared off by the 8.5 points. [9:23] I think this is going to be a blowout special over the Denver Nuggets.”
100-93 — Suns beat Nuggets 100-93; Phoenix's -8.5 spread busts with only a +7 margin (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [10:40] UConn minus five and a half versus those Miami Hurricanes. [10:43] Lee, break it down for us. [10:45] Yeah, UConn looks almost unstoppable. [10:47] They destroyed Iona in that first game, blitzed St. Mary's in the second game. [10:53] Some people thought St. Mary's could hang in that game here. [10:57] Then Arkansas destroyed Arkansas, and then Gonzaga. [11:01] And Gonzaga's good, but bottom line is Gonzaga may be a little overhyped. [11:06] They always seem to fold almost every single time once they get to March Madness. [11:11] This Miami team had a scare. [11:13] First game, they ended up playing Drake, and people love Drake. [11:17] People love the 12-5 matchups. [11:19] In fact, all five number five seeds won this year and covered. [11:24] Looked like Drake was going to cover. [11:26] They were up leading with two and a half minutes to go. [11:29] Miami put the full court press on them. [11:31] Ended up winning that game by seven points. [11:33] A little misleading, but their starting center, [11:36] Romare was not 100% for that game. [11:38] Looked much better in the second game as they blitzed Indiana. [11:42] And then shocked, Houston led wire to wire, [11:46] beat the number one-ranked Houston Cougars in the Midwest region [11:50] and then took apart the Texas Longhorns in the second half [11:55] with a nice blitz over the last 12 minutes. [11:58] So I think when you look at these two teams, [12:00] I think the winner is probably going to come from this game. [12:03] I think that UConn is a little more talented, [12:06] but let's look at the intangibles. [12:09] You have a UConn team, hasn't been in the Final Four with their coach. [12:13] You have a Miami team, Jim Laranaga. [12:15] he has been there before he took George Mason to this game so I like the fact that Miami came close last year made it to the lead eight Jordan Miller said that that loss sat with him for a real long time [12:29] And what kind of game did he have in the last game? [12:31] Perfect. [12:31] First player since 1992. [12:35] That's right, 27 points, 7-7 shooting from the field, 13-13 from the line here. [12:42] So this is a Miami team that's experienced, a lot of veteran leadership. [12:46] You look at them, they're not as tall as UConn. [12:49] I just think that this team might be a team of destiny here. [12:53] And also UConn, almost every single time a team wins a championship, [12:58] they're going to have that one close game, and they haven't had it yet here. [13:03] So I think Coach Laraneric's experience being there before, [13:07] being around the game so long and preparing his team, [13:10] they just look like they're loose i'm here and they are loose as uh can be and ready to go i [13:16] think this game goes down to the wire i think five and a half points is way too much here let's end [13:21] the week strong here let's blow the top off my miami hurricanes plus five and a half points all [13:29] the way up level three lock”
72-59 — UConn beat Miami 72-59 in the Final Four; Miami Hurricanes +5.5 busts, losing by 13 (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [4:37] The Knicks minus 4.5, minus 112, with the take back being plus 4.5, minus 108 for the Heat. [4:43] Break this one down for us, Lee. [4:45] Okay, so this is a game where I want people to wait. [4:47] I will update everyone on Twitter the status of Jimmy Butler. [4:51] I do believe he's going to play. [4:52] Didn't play last night, neck soreness. [4:55] So he's had some problems with his knees, you know. [4:58] He played a lot of minutes in the NBA, but neck soreness, really? [5:02] He missed the game last night. [5:04] They did not play well at Toronto. [5:07] People will play against Miami. [5:09] They'll figure, hey, a back-to-backer. [5:12] Maybe he doesn't play, but I think he's going to play. [5:15] So wait until you hear from me on Twitter, probably about 4 Eastern. [5:19] I should know by then, 4, 430, if he's playing or not. [5:23] And if he's playing, I think it's full speed ahead here to take the Heat. [5:26] The Heat has played the Knicks three times. [5:30] Last game at home, they won by seven. [5:33] But it was nip and tuck. [5:34] I mean, I think free throws right at the end were the determinant late. [5:39] But the other two games where the Heat lost to the Knicks, they lost by two. [5:44] So this is a team here, the Knicks, certainly much improved here. [5:49] But I think they're sitting here locked into the fifth spot. [5:52] They know it. [5:53] They want to stay healthy. [5:55] Like I mentioned, people are going to bet against the Heat [5:58] because they're playing on a back-to-backer. [6:00] but we're seeing teams in the NBA playing really well on back-to-back. [6:06] It's not that long of a road trip. [6:08] You know, they get on a plane, it's a 30-minute flight. [6:11] So looking at this Heat team here, they get up for challenges. [6:16] And these two teams, this is the ultimate rivalry here. [6:21] So it's four-and-a-half points. [6:23] Jimmy Butler, I do believe, will play. [6:26] There's a difference between Jimmy Butler. [6:29] There's regular season Jimmy and playoff Jimmy. [6:32] And when he's played the last eight games, he has been something else here. [6:36] So we'll take the points here in an ultimate rivalry game here. [6:40] The Heat's still looking. [6:41] They're a half game behind that six spot. [6:43] You don't want to play in the play-in tournament. [6:46] They win this game. [6:47] They continue to win to end the season. [6:49] And Brooklyn is on a steep decline. [6:52] Even though Miami had a bad game last game, I think Miami will rebound here, [6:56] and they want to get that six spot. [6:58] So we're taking the four and a half points here. [7:01] Wrong team favorite, the Miami Heat, [7:04] taking the points against the New York Knicks tonight.”
101-92 — New York beat Miami 101-92, so the Heat lost by 9 and failed to cover +4.5.
“Fantool.com line on this one. [8:22] The Braves minus 250. [8:23] But we're going to go with this approach. [8:25] The Braves minus one and a half runs minus 144 versus Washington Lee break this one down for us So spring training snoozer 30 games Each team has played [8:36] It's a lot. [8:37] I mean, you know, I watch games here and there, [8:41] but to watch every team's spring training games, [8:43] I mean, you've got to be a devoted fan here. [8:45] And what I'm seeing and what I'm watching these games, [8:48] Atlanta Braves, who were 101 and 61 last year, [8:52] look like they're going to be a force again. [8:55] Washington Nationals, a league low, 55 wins and 107 losses are going to have their problems. [9:02] We get Max Fried, one of my favorites. [9:05] He's the ace for the Braves. [9:07] He's going to start this game. [9:09] And you get him going against Patrick Corbin, who has not fared well. [9:13] The Braves had a 14-5. [9:16] The reason they won so many games, mainly they played the Washington Nationals 19 times [9:21] and won 14 of those 19 times. [9:24] Max Fried, he had an incredible .248 ERA under the radar. [9:30] And here's why he was under the radar. [9:32] He started slow, but he finished with a 14-7 record last year. [9:37] So not a lot of people realize how good he was. [9:40] And then his counterpart, who was it? [9:42] Patrick Corbin. [9:43] Patrick Corbin has not fared well. [9:46] In fact, finished with a .631 ERA. [9:50] You're going to start the first game. [9:52] That's right, the first game with a starter with a 631 ERA [9:58] just kind of tells you what's going on with this franchise here. [10:02] We know they lost Juan Soto, Josh Bell. [10:06] I mean, what's their best pickup in the offseason? [10:10] Corey Dickerson? [10:11] Are you kidding me? [10:12] So you get a team here with a lot of firepower. [10:16] You got a team that can hit Atlanta. [10:19] We're laying the one-and-a-half runs here. [10:21] blowout special this is an early game 105 eastern start on thursday so get it in now [10:29] land of braves minus one and a half runs blowout special over the washington nationals”
7-2 — Atlanta beat Washington 7-2 on Opening Day, covering the -1.5 run line.
“fanduel.com line on this [12:37] with San Diego State minus one and a half versus FAU. [12:40] And the total is 131 and a half. [12:42] Lee what direction are you going on the lock of the day today All right so they saying 72 fans So we see Maybe for Saturday It could be for Saturday four games [12:53] They pre-sell most of these tickets here. [12:56] I doubt in the final, unless we see a UConn final, [13:00] maybe against San Diego State, that they do not want to see Miami and FAU. [13:05] They don't want to see an all-South Florida basketball final. [13:09] So I know FAU. [13:11] I've gone to a couple of their games in the borough. [13:15] Actually a tough place to play. [13:17] And they score there. [13:19] But let's look at FAU here in tournament time. [13:23] They scored a high of 79 points against Kansas State in the last game. [13:28] But that was an up-and-down game. [13:30] Kansas State plays very little defense. [13:33] We saw what happened in their last game. [13:34] They gave up almost 100. [13:36] But in the game before that, they only scored 62 points against Tennessee, a 62-55 final. [13:46] Memphis, who plays up and down, 66-65 they won. [13:50] Then against Fairleigh Dickinson, not much talent there on the Fairleigh Dickinson side, [13:56] although they played hard. [13:57] They won 78-70. [13:59] I think this is going to be a slowdown game. [14:01] I think San Diego State wants to muck it up here. [14:04] San Diego State, get this, month of March, they played eight games, [14:09] high of 75 points, then 71 points. [14:12] All the rest, five of the eight are in the 60s [14:17] and one against Creighton the last game, and the 50s, 57-56. [14:22] So the talent on offense is mediocre here. [14:26] The deal is San Diego State's going to slow down the game, [14:30] take the air out of the ball. [14:31] They have the number one defense, college basketball. [14:34] We're going under 131.5 total points in the first game in the Final Four on Saturday night. [14:42] Level one lock.”
72-71 — San Diego State beat Florida Atlantic 72-71 on a buzzer-beater in the Final Four; the combined 143 points went over 131.5.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Flames minus 134 versus the Kings with a take back being plus 114. Break this one down for us, Lee. [4:40] All right, so the L.A. Kings have been one of the least talked about playoff contenders of the entire NHL season. [4:49] They're not just cruising right into second place in the Western Conference. [4:54] They've been primarily doing it on offense right now. [4:58] The offense is red hot. [5:00] 4.41 goals in the last 12 games since the end of February, including a combined 19 goals in the last three games. [5:08] And I think it's going to continue. [5:10] In fact, they put up an easy eight goals on the same Flames team just last week, [5:16] and they haven't shown any signs of slowing down. [5:19] So the biggest problem this team had to address at the trade deadline was goaltending. [5:24] They actually traded away a franchise legend in Jonathan Quick, [5:29] but they picked up Jonas Corposalo, and what does he do? [5:35] All of a sudden, he's made it their team's strength here. [5:38] They have the third best save percentage in the NHL since the trade deadline. [5:44] Then I look at the Calgary Flames team, and just nothing has gone right for them this season. [5:50] They're four points out of a playoff spot. [5:53] They've strung together consecutive wins just once since January, [5:57] and they really haven't had an elite season from anyone on the team. [6:02] I mean, they're still up at second in the NHL in shots on goals per game, [6:07] but they can't finish. [6:10] 24th in shooting percentage in power play ranks, just 20th in the NHL. [6:16] You can't be betting on teams like Calgary who are still being overpriced by the books here. [6:22] The Kings win this one 4-2 here. [6:25] Wrong team favorite. [6:27] L.A. Kings money line plus 114.”
1-2 — Calgary beat LA 2-1 behind Jacob Markstrom's 32 saves, so the Kings moneyline lost.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [7:11] North Texas minus one and a half versus Wisconsin. [7:13] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:14] So I talked about it yesterday and identified it over the last couple weeks. [7:20] The Big Ten is overrated and Conference USA is underrated. [7:26] So what did we see in the Big Ten? [7:29] Nine teams in the tournament, not one of them. [7:32] Sorry, Joe Lenardi. [7:34] Not one of them made the Elite Eight. [7:37] Conference USA, Charlotte, they win the CBI tournament. [7:41] What goes on in the NIT? [7:42] Well, just look at the other game. [7:45] Told you that UAB's going to get it done yesterday against Utah Valley. [7:49] And now another team from Conference USA, North Texas, they take to the court. [7:55] North Texas, what have they done since January? [7:58] Lost to the final four team, Florida Atlantic. [8:02] They had a loss to Rice, worst game of the year. [8:06] They lost to Charlotte, who won the CBI. [8:08] And they lost to UAB, a very competitive team. [8:12] So this team, I mean, this is a really good team to lose four games [8:17] in almost three months. [8:19] Are you kidding me? [8:20] So they had a fantastic season here, 29-7. [8:25] They played a lot of tough teams in November and December. [8:28] They rolled through the first round and beat Alcorn State and Sam Houston State It wasn even close Then they go and play at Oklahoma State They come out with a win and then all name Tyler Perry No not the Tyler Perry You thinking about the guy who an actor filmmaker playwright [8:51] and entrepreneur, Tyler Perry, 23 points, including five in overtime. [8:57] That was the difference in that game. [8:59] Every team, no matter, hey, you can talk about UConn [9:02] and as great as they've been, they're not going to have both games [9:05] where they just roll and win by double digits. [9:07] It just doesn't happen. [9:08] And you always have one tough game. [9:10] And I think in this tournament, that was a tough game here for North Texas. [9:14] They went on the road here. [9:16] Wisconsin, yeah. [9:17] I mean, they're winning. [9:19] They beat Bradley. [9:20] They beat Liberty. [9:21] They beat Oregon, who is without their top three players, [9:25] their top three scores here. [9:27] I'm not a believer. [9:28] I've been telling everyone all year that this Big Ten product [9:34] is not a great product here. [9:36] And North Texas ranks number 33 in the Ken Palm rankings here. [9:42] Defensively, they give up only 55 points per game here. [9:46] They're ranked 22nd in the country in defensive efficiency. [9:50] And I think they're the better rebounding team. [9:55] And they also hit their free throws. [9:57] When it comes down to close games, making those free throws when you get fouled, [10:02] very important here. [10:03] And how about on a roll? [10:04] statistically 11 and 3 against the spread the last 14 games we're taking north texas here i think [10:11] they get the job here done blowout special over wisconsin”
56-54 — North Texas beat Wisconsin 56-54 in the NIT semifinal, covering the -1.5 spread.
“fanduel.com line on this [12:26] one the Grizzlies minus seven first Orlando break this one down for us Lee all right so Memphis wants [12:32] to keep winning they're sitting in second place and they have to keep winning if they want to have [12:37] a shot and I think they're gonna you know give it a shot for the next four or five games and [12:42] John Morant just came back they want him to play significant minutes they upped his minutes the [12:47] first game I think he was at 17 he was at 29 minutes in the last game I think they want to [12:53] continue to move it up to get them to maybe in the mid-30s before maybe cutting down some of [12:58] their starters So I still think the next three or four games Memphis is going to play their starters They want to win They want to see the only really three games back here in the loss column See if they can get to that first spot [13:10] And if they can get that first spot, then they'll give it a run and try to hold on. [13:15] So I think that when you look at Orlando and I back them, they're sitting right now tied for the fifth worst record. [13:23] There's a couple players in the draft that can change your team. [13:26] And within two years, you're going to be, [13:29] I don't know if you're going to be fighting for a championship, [13:31] but you could be sitting third, fourth in the standings in your conference. [13:34] So if you don't get that guy, then, you know, [13:37] you're doing the same old year after year. [13:40] So Orlando's played well. [13:42] They played hard, but they're tied for fifth. [13:46] The difference right now, they have 32 wins and they are tied with Phoenix. [13:52] And I'm sorry, Portland. [13:53] What did we see Portland do last night? [13:55] They decide they're going to shut down their best player, and they got blown out, lost by 30. [14:02] They were down by almost 30 at the half. [14:04] So look at Utah. [14:07] They're pretty much done now. [14:08] They have 35 wins. [14:10] Also, some other teams right there, Washington and Indiana with 33 wins. [14:16] So I think that they've got to lose this game. [14:19] So I think that the line is short. [14:22] It's at seven points here. [14:24] Memphis is playing at home. [14:26] Orlando has not fared well on the road here. [14:29] 13-24 on the road this season. [14:32] In fact, only covered 11 times on the road here. [14:35] This Grizzlies team has won six straight. [14:37] They are clicking right now. [14:39] That machine is clicking on all cylinders here. [14:43] I'm taking Memphis. [14:44] Lay the seven here on a Tuesday.”
113-108 — Memphis beat Orlando 113-108, winning by only 5 and failing to cover -7.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [5:11] The Nuggets minus 5.5 versus Philadelphia. [5:14] Break this one down for us, Lee. [5:15] Okay, so when these two teams played, and I actually remember watching the game, [5:19] and I'm looking at my notes. [5:20] I take a lot of notes during games. [5:22] Saturday, January 28th, it was an afternoon game. [5:26] Philadelphia won the game by seven points. [5:28] And I remember watching the game and thinking, wow, the Joker, you know, looks good, consistent, 24 points. [5:36] He had eight rebounds, nine assists. [5:38] but hit seven turnovers. [5:43] And who was he matched up against? [5:45] Maybe the only guy that is more talented than him. [5:48] Not saying he's a better player, but more talented is Joel Embiid. [5:52] And Joel Embiid in that game went for 47 points, 18 rebounds, [5:59] five assists, and even had two blocks. [6:03] And I think he sold peanuts and popcorn at halftime that game. [6:07] And so he was all over the place. [6:09] And I actually think of Philadelphia's athleticism. [6:13] Melton, Tobias Harris, James Harden, who looks like will probably play in this game. [6:19] He did not play in their last game. [6:21] And Tyrese Maxey, who's incredible, moving the ball and slashing to the hole. [6:27] I think it's a bad matchup for Denver. [6:29] So Denver looks real good. [6:31] They're the best team in the West. [6:33] But I think sometimes it's about matchups. [6:35] It's a big game for Philadelphia. [6:38] They want to stay in that third slot, maybe get up to the second slot here. [6:42] And so tough trip here for Denver, tough matchup. [6:45] We're going to go here with Philadelphia 76ers getting the five and a half points. [6:52] Wrong team favorite.”
116-111 — Denver beat Philadelphia 116-111; the 76ers lost by 5, covering the +5.5 spread.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [7:38] UAB minus 2 versus Utah Valley Break this one down for us Yeah so best thing about wagering and you can go with one team for one game and the next game you can go against them [7:50] I love Utah Valley. [7:51] I love the Wolverines. [7:53] I love them at home. [7:54] And I think they're going to bring a lot of fans here, [7:56] and they look good. [7:57] They beat New Mexico and Colorado, [8:00] although either of those two teams aren't great. [8:02] And they faced a Cincinnati team traveling cross country [8:05] who really had almost no motivation, [8:07] and it was a bad matchup for them here. [8:09] So looking at this team that they're going to face, [8:14] and here's what's crazy about this game. [8:18] UAB, now we realize maybe the most underrated conference was Conference USA. [8:25] So Charlotte, they won the CBI tournament. [8:28] UAB, they're in the NIT Final Four. [8:31] North Texas, they're in the other game, the NIT Final Four, [8:35] and FAU is in the final four. [8:39] So now you look at the level of play, and it's really, really high. [8:44] So you look at the schedule, and look what went on in the last, you know, [8:50] 15, 17, 18 games. [8:53] UAB went 15-2. [8:56] The only two teams they lost to was Florida Atlantic a couple weeks ago [9:01] at Florida Atlantic and also North Texas. [9:05] Other than that, they are 16-2. [9:09] That's right, 16-2. [9:11] Those are the only two losses. [9:13] I think it's a bad matchup for Utah Valley here. [9:16] I love what they've done so far here, [9:19] but I just think that Justin Harmon is going to have to be really good again [9:23] and think that defense for UAB may be a little bit better. [9:28] I look at rankings, my power rankings, and I have Utah Valley at like 58. [9:33] Where do I have UAB? [9:34] believe it or not number 32 in the country here jordan walker one of the best scorers in division [9:41] one i think he's ready to break out and have a big game he had a couple bad matchups last couple [9:47] games and the team carried them here they're also four and two on neutral courts here and they can [9:54] score ninth in the country in scoring averaging 82.2 points per game we're riding conference usa [10:02] say here and UAB [10:03] the Blazers [10:04] blowout special for tomorrow night”
88-86 — UAB beat Utah Valley 88-86 in overtime in the NIT semifinal, landing exactly on the -2 spread for a push.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [11:03] The Suns minus 6.5 versus Utah. [11:05] Break this one down for us. [11:06] So Devin Booker is consistent. [11:08] He scores 25, 35 points. [11:11] It seems like every single night. [11:13] Chris Paul is starting to pick it up also, getting more involved. [11:16] And it's the bench here. [11:18] I think it's the difference here. [11:20] So you've got Landry Schammett. [11:22] He's playing really well. [11:25] Also, Terrence Ross, who they got in a trade. [11:27] He chipped in with 15 with their 10 win over Philadelphia on Saturday night And T Warren also playing at a high level He had 16 the other night So I think that the complimentary players are figuring it out [11:42] getting into top form, heading into playoffs. [11:46] They know they'll get Kevin Durant back soon. [11:49] And so Utah just floundering. [11:51] You talk about a team that is just big time injured. [11:56] They're without their top two players. [11:57] And when you're without your top two players, it is tough. [12:00] Rory Markkinen. [12:02] It looks like he may not even play again. [12:05] He's missed the last two games here. [12:07] So it just goes on and on. [12:09] They have some young players. [12:10] Walker Kessler had a great game the last game. [12:13] But you can't count on him to score 20 to 30 points. [12:17] I love that they're playing Ochire Gabi. [12:20] I think that he's going to be a guy that's going to be a big-time player. [12:24] Zuzang, Johnny Zuzang, I like that they're playing him more. [12:27] But these guys are not ready to play at that high level on a consistent basis here. [12:32] So I'm going to lay the points here. [12:35] Hidden gem. [12:36] The end of the show on Monday here. [12:37] We're going to go with the Phoenix Suns over the Utah Jazz.”
117-103 — Phoenix beat Utah 117-103, covering the -6.5 spread.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [4:26] Creighton minus 10 versus Princeton. [4:28] Lee, break this one down for us. [4:29] Boy, Creighton sure looked good in that Baylor game. [4:31] 11 for 24 from threes. [4:33] I mean, similar to what was going on in the game last night that we were involved in, that Kansas State game. [4:39] I mean, wow. [4:40] I mean, Michigan State and Kansas City, both teams hit 50% or better from three-point land. [4:46] That's why both teams got into the 90s here. [4:49] So Creighton is really good. [4:50] But how about this? [4:52] In the last game, their starters played a total of 192 out of 200 minutes. [4:58] Are you telling me they're just going to keep going through games where nothing happens, [5:03] no foul problems, no one gets injured, matchup situations? [5:09] I don't see that happening here. [5:11] Princeton, they won despite 12 for 33 from three-point land against Missouri. [5:17] So I think this Princeton team is going to slow down the game here. [5:22] Ten points, that's a lot. [5:24] Princeton, I'm telling you, I think they match up with Creighton here. [5:28] I don't know if they win the game here, but I'm taking the double-digit points here. [5:33] Wrong team favored. [5:34] I'm riding with the Princeton Tigers tonight. [5:37] Ivy League special against Creighton.”
86-75 — Creighton beat Princeton 86-75 in the Sweet 16; Princeton lost by 11, missing the +10 cover.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:30] The Kings minus 4 versus Suns. [6:32] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:33] All right, so when the Suns have Kevin Durant, [6:35] Hey all good but we not without him and he been out and he will not play tonight they just don have the depth here And defense it not there Phoenix defense how about allowing 119 points per game over the last five [6:53] So home court advantage matters. [6:56] Sacramento played extremely well. [6:59] That's right, extremely well at home. [7:01] They won the last game at home here. [7:03] And without DeAndre Ayton, he did not play in the last two games. [7:07] He's listed as a game-time decision here. [7:09] The Lakers hit 55.7% of their shots, and they put up 50 points in the paint here. [7:18] That spells trouble here. [7:20] They also fouled the Lakers early and often, leading to 46 free throws here. [7:26] So unless they can outscore Sacramento, I think they're in trouble. [7:30] Devin Booker even scored 33 points in that game, and that wasn't enough. [7:34] He's scored over 30 points here eight times in March, [7:38] but they're just not winning here. [7:41] Booker's going to have to have a huge game. [7:44] Just doesn't have enough help here. [7:46] So without DeAndre Ayton, if he doesn't play, or even if he does, not 100%, [7:51] I'm just not seeing that type of energy from their whole team [7:56] when they play defense here in Sacramento at home. [8:00] They love to score early and often here. [8:02] They couldn't outscore Celtics here, but I don't think Phoenix is the Celtics right now. [8:08] So I think they're going to get the job done here. [8:11] They're a dangerous team at home. [8:13] They have weapons all over the court. [8:15] They go 10 or 11 deep here. [8:17] Lay the four. [8:19] Blowout special. [8:20] Sacramento Kings over the Phoenix Suns on Friday night.”
135-127 — Sacramento beat Phoenix 135-127, covering the -4 spread.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [9:28] Alabama minus 7.5, minus 108. [9:30] weight versus San Diego State with the take back being plus seven and a half minus 112. [9:35] Break this one down for us, Lee. [9:36] Oh, yes. [9:37] So this is a game where clash of styles. [9:40] San Diego State, for them to win the game and keep the game close, probably got to be [9:46] at the most in the mid-60s here. [9:48] This game gets into the 70s, and they are in trouble here. [9:52] What is Alabama all about? [9:53] Speed, ball movement. [9:56] They like to get layups in transition also in their half offense and three shooting And they have a guy Brandon Miller probably the best player in college basketball almost unguardable [10:08] So he can get shots up here from long range. [10:12] He can drive. [10:13] And he also feeds the ball off to his teammates here. [10:16] In fact, no one really talks about this, [10:18] but they have averaged 15 offensive rebounds a game in the tournament. [10:23] So they hit the glass also. [10:25] So San Diego State, kind of a light schedule here. [10:29] They do hold opponents of 54.5 points per game, [10:33] just 32% from the floor and just 22% from three-point land. [10:39] But they're going to have to be good on the glass. [10:41] They've been good rebounding in the tournament, [10:43] plus 16 in rebounding for the tournament here. [10:46] But Bama, 4-1 against the spread the last five versus plus 600 teams here. [10:52] And I think this is a different class here. [10:54] I'm going to say roll tide here. [10:59] Level two lock to finish off Friday.”
64-71 — San Diego State upset Alabama 71-64 in the Sweet 16, so Alabama failed to cover -7.5.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [4:45] The New York Knicks minus three versus the Orlando Magic. [4:48] Break this one down for us, Lee. [4:49] Yeah, so I watched the Knicks game last night against the Heat. [4:53] Two games ago, they lost 140-134 to Minnesota as an eight-point favorite. [5:01] And last night as a small underdog, lost to Miami 127-120. [5:06] They've given up 140 and 127 points. [5:12] And we're talking about a Miami Heat offense, bottom five in the NBA. [5:17] They allowed them to shoot 57% in that game. [5:21] That's right, 57% for the entire game. [5:25] And also in that game, they just allowed Miami to do whatever they want. [5:30] From the three-point line, Miami was just hitting early and often. [5:34] and you've got to play some defense, bottom line. [5:40] If you want to win championships, you want to win a series. [5:43] So when you allow Miami to shoot 57 from the field, 57.1 from three-point land, [5:49] you are in trouble. [5:51] Now they finished the game about 10 after 10 o'clock. [5:55] So by the time they got on the flight, it had to be 12, 12.30. [5:59] Get to their hotel. [6:01] I know it's only a half-hour flight, but these guys went to sleep at the earliest 2, 2.33 o'clock. [6:08] Now they've got to play again against a young Orlando team that is playing hard. [6:14] I think that they're in trouble here. [6:16] So I'm not seeing them hit the glass real hard here. [6:21] Like I said, the defense, not there. [6:24] This Magic team sharing the ball. [6:27] Gary Harris coming out of nowhere in the last game, 22 points. [6:31] Fonz Wagner, 20 points, six rebounds. [6:35] Paulo Banchero, 18 points, nine rebounds here. [6:39] Their defense hasn't been great. [6:41] But, you know, they've won two of their last three games here, [6:46] and they're just playing well offensively. [6:48] They also hit free throws here, 83%. [6:52] Young team usually don't see that in the NBA here. [6:55] we're going with a hidden gem [6:57] Orlando Magic [6:58] they send to the New York Knicks to the third straight [7:01] loss.”
111-106 — Orlando beat New York 111-106, covering the +3 spread.
“FanDuel.com line on this one, Michigan State minus one and a half versus K-State. [7:52] Break it down for us, Lee. [7:53] Couldn't be any different here. [7:55] You got Tom Izzo. [7:57] This will be his 15th career Sweet 16 appearance. [8:01] He has a career record of 687 wins and 287 losses. [8:06] Jerome Tang, first time. [8:08] First time head coach in the Sweet 16, but what a job he's done here. [8:13] So the Spartans, what have they done here in the tournament? [8:17] They beat USC 72-62 and then upset Marquette 69-60. [8:24] No one saw it. [8:26] Spartans they rate 24th by Ken Palm 32nd on defense 37th offensively Just pretty good in everything 17 and 16 against the spread overs and unders [8:41] They're 16 and 17. [8:43] So they're going to have to shoot threes here to win [8:47] and also do well from the free throw line. [8:51] They've been pretty darn good, [8:53] but I just don't think the Big Ten has been anything special. [8:56] So if you look at the two conferences, I think the Big 12 is better. [9:00] I just love what Jerome Tang has done here. [9:03] This is a team that has a couple guys, when it counts, can get it done here. [9:08] They're 22nd, 10-palm rating, it's a little bit better. [9:12] 17th in adjusted defense. [9:14] So when they need a stop, they're usually able to get it. [9:19] The duo of Johnson and Noel, these two guys, they both average 17 points a game. [9:25] So if you need that shot, Michigan State has three guys that are pretty good. [9:29] I don't think they're playing in the NBA. [9:31] I think Kansas State has two dogs. [9:33] When you want that shot, they're going to get the job done. [9:37] 22nd strength of schedule due to that Big 12 schedule. [9:42] And they beat Montana State. [9:45] We're by far the better team, 77-65, and by far we're the better team, I thought, [9:50] against Kentucky here. [9:51] They're 22-12 against the spread. [9:55] Everyone keeps sliding them. [9:57] Everyone's going to talk about Tom Izzo here. [10:00] I think they're not going to be able to keep up with this Kansas State team here. [10:04] So I think the Kansas State, they've got that X factor here. [10:08] We're going to take the points here. [10:10] Wrong team favored. [10:12] Kansas State moves to the Elite Eight as they beat the Michigan State Spartans tonight.”
93-98 — Kansas State beat Michigan State 98-93 in overtime in the Sweet 16, covering +1.5.
“fanduel.com line on this one ucla minus one and a half minus 108 versus gonzaga with [12:35] the take back plus one and a half minus 112 break this one down for us lee yeah so this is a matchup [12:41] that has pretty much played out the way everyone thought it was. [12:45] You get the number two seed UCLA against the number three seed Gonzaga here These two teams each won 30 games They played challenging schedules [12:55] Gonzaga, though, the difference is they do it with offense. [12:59] Best offense in the nation here. [13:02] They lead college basketball in points per game and also field goal percentage. [13:07] They also don't commit many turnovers, just 29th. [13:11] They rank in turnovers here. [13:13] So they've been an 11-game winning streak. [13:16] Everything is going well here. [13:18] Drew Timmy's going to have to keep playing well if they want to win the game. [13:22] On the other side, you have a UCLA team that's built on defense. [13:28] Second, that's right, second in defense. [13:31] They only give up 60.5 per game. [13:34] In fact, in the month of March, they played a total of eight games. [13:40] only given up, get this, 70 points once. [13:45] In fact, they've held two opponents to under 60 points. [13:48] So a battle total of contrast here. [13:52] But I just think that when you get two great teams, offense and defense, [13:57] usually it's the defensive team that usually wins here. [14:01] The Bruins also seem to play well on neutral courts, [14:04] five and three record straight up and against the spread here on neutral courts [14:08] here. [14:08] So I'm going to go with the defense here and also pedigree. [14:12] Just don't think Gonzaga here in tournament time is going to get it done [14:17] against the best Bruins on a five, one, and one against the spread run here. [14:21] And I think they're going to play well and go to the elite eight here. [14:25] We're going to go with a level one lock on Thursday. [14:28] The UCLA Bruins lay in the small spot. [14:31] They get the job done against Gonzaga.”
76-79 — Gonzaga beat UCLA 79-76 on Strawther's buzzer-beater in the Sweet 16, so UCLA failed to cover -1.5.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [3:58] Utah Valley minus 1.5 plus 100 with the take back for Cincinnati being plus 1.5 minus 122. [4:04] Break this one down for us, Lee. [4:05] Yeah, tip-off from Orem, Utah tonight is 9 o'clock Eastern. [4:09] A lot of people don't know much about Utah Valley, but a lot of the schools in Utah can play basketball this year. [4:17] They recruit. [4:18] They play a fast-paced game. [4:20] The Wolverines also packing it at home. [4:24] They play much much better at home this year 27 record and 23 against the spread one of the top spread records in the country So Cincinnati did a nice job to get here They beat Virginia Tech in the first round [4:44] I just think that they're going to have trouble here in this game. [4:47] This Will Reigns team has come on. [4:50] Like I said, they're tough at home. [4:51] They've already beaten Colorado on Sunday. [4:53] They beat New Mexico in the first round. [4:56] They get up for playing the big boys here. [4:59] So when I look at this Utah Valley team here, what they do is they can shoot in the paint here. [5:06] In fact, they were 33 for 59 last game, 9 for 17 from 3. [5:12] They don't shoot, you know, 25, 30 shots from outside. [5:16] They're led by the Trey Darthard. [5:19] He's averaging almost 14 points on almost 44% shooting. [5:24] and get this, he makes 90.1% of his free throws. [5:29] He drives the ball late in the game, [5:32] and in a game where it's close to a pick-em, [5:35] you better have a team that can shoot free throws, [5:37] and that's what they do extremely well. [5:40] Cincinnati, on the other hand, bottom 50 in shooting free throws. [5:44] That's why they've lost a lot of games here. [5:47] I'm going to go with the Wolverines at home in this quarterfinal game. [5:51] I think that they're going to be heading to Madison Square Garden here. [5:56] So when I watch this Cincinnati team, just two up and down. [6:00] I mean, they would look good one the game. [6:02] And then in the AAC tournament, they lost 69-48 to Houston [6:06] when Marcus Sasser didn't even play in that game when the urgency was there. [6:11] So they wanted to advance, just saw nothing here. [6:14] I think this trip is too much from here. [6:17] I'm going to lay the one and a half points here. [6:19] We're going with the Wolverines from Utah Valley here.”
74-68 — Utah Valley beat Cincinnati 74-68 in the NIT quarterfinal, covering the -1.5 spread.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [7:43] The 76ers minus three versus Chicago. [7:46] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:47] Yeah, a lot of people will play a team like Philadelphia because they're winning. [7:52] And they finish a road trip and they come home and they think it'll continue. [7:57] A lot of times we've seen the NBA. [7:59] That team will relax the first game back from a road trip, even if they're playing well. [8:03] Here they're back. [8:04] They're seeing family and friends. [8:07] It's just human nature. [8:09] They lost that game. [8:11] Now they go on the road and they face Chicago. [8:13] And let's look at the standings. [8:15] Chicago pretty much locked into that 10th spot. [8:18] Maybe they can get up to the ninth spot. [8:20] Not much difference there. [8:22] They're two and a half games ahead of Indiana. [8:25] So I think that's where they're going to stay. [8:28] Philadelphia's sitting third. [8:29] They're a game back of Boston. [8:31] They want that second spot. [8:33] They want to be able to play someone who's in the play-in tournament. [8:37] And right now, it's trending like Brooklyn's going to probably end up in seventh spot. [8:43] They've got a tough schedule down the stretch. [8:45] They're losing. Miami will probably overtake them. [8:47] So if you've got a chance of playing Brooklyn, Atlanta, Toronto, or Chicago, [8:52] you want a part of that and not have to play Miami. [8:56] So I think that's something big. [8:58] And also, if you win that first round, then you get the home advantage against Boston. [9:04] That would be huge. [9:05] So this is a big game for Philadelphia. [9:08] James Harden played in the last game, but he's not 100%. [9:11] You have to give him credit. [9:13] And unlike a lot of other players a lot of guys they just do not want to play when they hurt James Harden does play actually when he hurt a lot I think that this team is going to come to play here [9:24] They just couldn't hit the big shot. [9:26] And also, Joel Embiid fouled out in first overtime. [9:30] So I think the motivation is there. [9:34] I think they have the rebounding edge. [9:35] I think Chicago is soft on the inside. [9:38] Chicago's soft. [9:39] You heard it here first here. [9:41] I'm going with Philadelphia. [9:42] Joel Embiid will score 30-plus points again here tonight. [9:46] I'm taking the 76ers here. [9:49] Blowout special in Chi-Town.”
116-91 — Philadelphia routed Chicago 116-91, covering the -3 spread easily.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [12:12] Tennessee minus 4.5, minus 118, [12:14] versus FAU with the take back being plus 4.5, minus 104. [12:18] Break this one down for us, Lee. [12:20] What is the mecca of college basketball? [12:23] South Florida for the first time ever. [12:25] Two teams within 50 miles of each other are going to the Sweet 16. [12:30] Never happened before. [12:32] Told you I went up to a couple games and watched the Owls. [12:34] fun place to watch a college basketball game. [12:39] What a team this year. [12:41] I mean, what they do is they push the ball up, they score, [12:46] they are coached extremely well, they outlasted Memphis. [12:50] They trailed in that game probably 95%, 97% of the game, [12:54] came down to the end, they got the job done, [12:56] then they move on and face Fairleigh Dickinson, [12:59] who was coming off that big win, and Fairleigh Dickinson didn't play bad, [13:03] still won that game. [13:04] So they outlasted him there, and they won 78-70 here. [13:08] So Janelle Davis, he's the guy that leads his team. [13:12] 29 points and 12 rebounds he had that Fairleigh Dickinson win. [13:17] But they shoot to three, and that's where they make their hay. [13:21] They rank 32nd in college basketball in scoring, over 78 points per game. [13:26] They're number 18 in three-point attempts, 26. [13:30] That's right, they averaged 26.4 per attempts per game. [13:35] This isn't an NBA team shooting 25 to 30, the college team, [13:39] and their top 50 in three-point percentage, 36.7 points per game. [13:46] But here's the problem. [13:47] Tennessee, number one in the country. [13:51] Let me repeat that. [13:52] Number one in three percentage defense only allowing 26 and they have the top defense in college basketball [14:03] They were up at one point, 14-2, and then, you know, [14:09] after beating USC, Kansas, and Maryland, went through a tough stretch here. [14:14] But they had dropped, in fact, I think seven to 12 games, [14:18] but then they got their mojo, took down a tough Louisiana Raging Cajun [14:23] team and then dominated the Duke Blue Devils, who a lot of people thought were going to [14:28] be in the final four, maybe in the final. [14:31] So this is a team that's physical. [14:33] I think they have the height advantage, the rebounding advantage, and the defensive advantage [14:38] here. [14:39] FAU has not seen this type of defense. [14:41] Different level here. [14:42] So we're going to go with a level three lock on Wednesday. [14:48] Tennessee volunteers. [14:49] They get the job done over my FAU, Al.”
55-62 — Florida Atlantic upset Tennessee 62-55 in the Sweet 16, so Tennessee failed to cover -4.5.
“fanduel.com line on [3:55] this one oregon minus four and a half versus wisconsin break this one down for us lee yeah [3:59] these two teams are usually in the tournament and not this year uh they both of these teams uh [4:08] Great pedigree. [4:09] They actually faced off, believe it or not, in the 2019 NCAA tournament. [4:16] And Ducks pulled a 12 upset in that game 72 But they going to meet here on Tuesday night Ducks from the Pac will be the host here [4:28] It's a quarterfinal game, so whoever wins this game is going to advance to New York. [4:33] A lot on the line here. [4:35] I thought that Wisconsin was going to be able to get into the tournament. [4:38] They lost in the first round of the Big Ten tournament, 65-57 to Ohio State. [4:47] surprisingly because they were playing a little bit better down the stretch. [4:51] But now all of a sudden they found it. [4:53] And what's been going on with this Wisconsin team last couple games? [4:58] Well, they blitzed Bradley, decent team, 81-62, [5:02] and beat a Liberty team that I thought deserved to be in. [5:05] They won that game 75-71. [5:09] That game was also highly contested for a while. [5:14] But all of a sudden they're scoring. [5:15] They have scored now 81 and 75 points in the two wins. [5:20] They do play a slow pace. [5:22] So for them to get that high, they've been very efficient on offense. [5:27] As far as pace of play on offense, 342nd in adjusted tempo among 363 Division I teams here. [5:39] So play solid defense, too. [5:41] They've got a seven-foot center, Stephen Crowell, averages over 12 points and almost seven rebounds per game. [5:49] 6'2 sophomore, Chucky Hepburn, chipping in, playing well late offensively and defensively, over 12 points per game. [5:58] Crowell had a huge game here in the NIT opening win over Bradley, 36 points and nine rebounds. [6:05] He's really coming to his own. [6:06] and then Hepburn was the leading scorer here in the Liberty game, 27 points. [6:12] So I expect these two guys to continue to play well. [6:16] How has Oregon done it? [6:17] This has been an absolute shock. [6:19] Now, they'd only won three games in a row, once since December, [6:24] and it was against the bottom feeders. [6:26] But in the tournament, they had turned it on. [6:29] They beat UC Irvine. [6:30] But that was a rematch game. [6:33] They had lost to them, believe it or not, early in the year. [6:35] Then they beat a UCF team that had a lot of travel problems, had trouble getting there. [6:41] They were worn out. [6:42] UCF only scored 54 points. [6:44] The Oregon Ducks, it looks like, and they played without them the last two games, [6:48] would be about their top three scorers. [6:50] Now, they've been able to adjust for the first two games against teams that don't have much defense. [6:56] But against a Wisconsin team that is used to playing defense, I just think it's going to be tough here. [7:01] I think this line is too high. [7:03] We're going to take the points here. [7:06] Big Ten fever here. [7:08] Bucky Badger, wrong team favor. [7:11] Wisconsin Badgers here, plus the points against the Oregon Dye.”
Wisconsin 61, Oregon 58 — Wisconsin beat Oregon 61-58 in the 2023 NIT quarterfinal, winning outright as a +4.5 underdog.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [8:07] The Cavaliers minus three versus Brooklyn. [8:09] Break this one down for us, Lee. [8:11] So Cleveland's sitting in fourth place in the East here, [8:13] and they want to stay that way, in that position. [8:16] I don't think they can get to third. [8:18] They're four games behind Philadelphia. [8:20] I think there's like nine, ten games to go in the season. [8:24] So that's going to be tough here. [8:25] but I think they want to go into it with some momentum [8:30] and then maybe sit their players out the last couple games of the year, [8:34] get everyone healthy. [8:35] Jared Allen, he has been spectacular this year. [8:38] I mean this is a guy averaging double I mean regularly He has missed been out the last 11 days with an eye contusion And when you got a guy you talking about that can rebound and rebound [8:51] and just totally clear the glass here, [8:55] Jared Allen averaging almost 9.8 rebounds per game. [9:01] When he's out, it's just a different team. [9:04] People don't realize this. [9:05] I was even shocked that Cleveland Cavaliers have the number one defense in the NBA. [9:13] One of the reasons they let go of love just didn't fit into what they were doing defensively. [9:19] So on ball and helping out, they are really good here. [9:23] And Brooklyn has had problems. [9:25] Obviously, you know, they trade their two stars. [9:28] Ben Simmons is out for the year. [9:30] Smith, Dorian Smith, he came over from Dallas. [9:34] He may not play in this game here. [9:36] And on offense, they just can't get anything going the last couple games. [9:40] So we thought that they were going to have trouble in February, and they did. [9:46] How about this? [9:47] They went 3-8 in February. [9:50] March hasn't been much better. [9:52] They've been 5-5, and I just don't see them coming out of this slump here. [9:58] They're one game. [9:59] They're sitting in sixth, one game above the Miami Heat. [10:03] who are starting to put it all together here. [10:05] I think they're feeling the pressure here. [10:07] I'm going to lay the three points here. [10:09] Donovan Mitchell has been on fire here. [10:13] They're protecting the ball. [10:15] They're scoring and playing defense. [10:17] Everything's coming together, and they get that piece in the middle. [10:21] Allen back for this game here. [10:22] You've got one team soaring, winning a bunch of games in a row, [10:26] one team in decline here. [10:29] Brooklyn blowout special. [10:31] Cleveland Cavaliers get it done [10:33] in the first of a back-to-back against [10:36] Brooklyn tonight.”
Cleveland 115, Brooklyn 109 — Cavaliers beat Nets 115-109 (Mitchell 31 pts); Cleveland covered as a -3 favorite.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [13:00] The Maple Leafs minus 130 versus New York with a take-back being plus 108. [13:03] Break this one down for us Lee Yeah huge matchup in the Eastern Conference tonight between the Leafs and the New York Islanders The Leafs they are battling to stay in second place for home ice advantage against the Lightning in round one [13:17] And the Islanders are in a fight for their lives for a wild card spot here after a horrible start to the year. [13:24] The Islanders' ability to come back and fight for a playoff spot has been great for hockey. [13:30] But I think they're going to hit a speed bump here. [13:32] So this team is in the midst of an absolutely brutal stretch of their schedule right now, [13:38] having played four games in the last nine days, [13:41] with three of those games across the country on the West Coast. [13:44] Now, 13 goals in four games is good for a team like New York, [13:49] but most of those games were against bottom-feeder non-playoff teams like San Jose, [13:55] Washington, and Anaheim, who are all going for the lottery picks. [14:00] Let's not forget the Islanders team is 25th in goals per game at home [14:05] and just 18th in expected goals per game overall. [14:10] Toronto, for their sake, has won five of the last seven. [14:13] Austin Matthews is playing the best hockey of his season right now, [14:17] and they're finally getting some goaltending from Samuel Sosnov [14:22] and also Matt Murray. [14:24] Without Matthew Barzell for the Islanders here, [14:27] I think the difference in offensive output is just going to be too much for the Islanders to stay in it. [14:34] I look for a 4-1 final here. [14:36] We're going to go with a level two lock, Toronto Maple Leafs money line here over the New York Islanders.”
NYI 7, TOR 2 — Islanders beat Maple Leafs 7-2 (Clutterbuck 2G, 1A); Toronto's moneyline pick lost outright.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:18] Southern Utah minus 6 and a half versus Rice. [6:20] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:22] So when you look at the CBI, you've got to say who belongs here [6:26] and who paid their way in. [6:28] Southern Utah belongs, and I believe, I'm about 98% sure, [6:33] you actually have to pay to get into this tournament. [6:36] It's being played in Daytona Beach, so the kids are distracted. [6:40] But Southern Utah beat two pretty good teams, not once but twice. [6:45] They beat Utah Tech and Utah Valley. [6:48] if you follow college basketball, solid teams. [6:52] And this is a team that I think is scary good offensively. [6:59] How about this? [7:00] They've scored more than 90 points eight times. [7:04] They've scored more than 80 points another eight times. [7:09] Rice, I think they bought themselves into the tournament. [7:13] Rice has had problems in conference play. [7:16] In fact, they've lost not maybe six or eight times. [7:21] They have lost ten times in conference play. [7:25] So did nothing in conference play. [7:29] And they won the first game against Duquesne, 84-78. [7:35] Duquesne isn't much. [7:37] And Southern Utah, I just think that we saw a lot of low-scoring games being played in Daytona. [7:42] In fact, I believe almost every single game went under. [7:46] But I think that they scored 72, held Northern Alabama to 50. [7:51] I think they're going to come out firing here. [7:53] This might be that game they scored 90, 95, 100 points here. [7:57] Rice brought themselves into this tournament here. [7:59] They have no business with a 19-15 overall record, [8:03] a losing record in conference play playing here. [8:06] We going to go with the Thunderbirds the fabulous Thunderbirds here I think this is a huge hidden gem here over the Rice Owls”
Southern Utah 81, Rice 79 — Southern Utah edged Rice 81-79 in the 2023 CBI quarterfinal; the Thunderbirds won by only 2 points, short of the -6.5 line.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [9:06] The Knicks minus eight and a half versus the Timberwolves. [9:09] Break this one down for us, Lee. [9:10] Yeah, it's motivation here. [9:12] Very important when you look at playoff seedings. [9:16] And the Knicks, they want to be. [9:18] They want to be in fifth spot. [9:20] They're not going to get up to the third spot. [9:23] So they want to play Cleveland in the first round. [9:25] They play Cleveland in the first round. [9:27] They don't want to keep winning and get up and having to play the Celtics [9:32] or the Philadelphia 76ers? [9:35] No way. [9:37] Whenever you think everything's perfect with the Knicks, [9:40] they've won three straight. [9:41] They usually fall flat on their face here. [9:44] Minnesota looks like they'll have back Anthony Edwards here. [9:47] It's a big line here. [9:49] They have been turning the ball over here. [9:52] So they need to cut back on their turnovers [9:55] if they want to have a chance here to win this game. [9:58] So Jalen Brunson's back for the Knicks. [10:01] That's why you're getting such a high line here. [10:04] People don't realize that the Timberwolves actually play good defense. [10:09] Tenth, that's right, tenth in defense here. [10:14] So holding opponents here also to shooting at just 62% at the rim, [10:20] tenth in the league because of Rudy Gobert. [10:23] So they've had trouble allowing opposing teams, [10:27] knocking down over 37% of their threes, which is 23rd in the NBA. [10:33] I don't think that's the Knicks game here. [10:35] They like to drive it to the rim here, like to get and do something in transition. [10:40] So I think they're begging you to play the Knicks. [10:43] The public is going to be over the Knicks here. [10:46] We're going to go with the Minnesota Timberwolves here. [10:50] Wrong team favored. [10:51] as they cover, maybe pull off the shocker [10:54] against the New York Knicks tonight in the Garden.”
Minnesota 140, New York 134 — Timberwolves beat Knicks 140-134 despite Julius Randle's 57 points; Minnesota won outright as a +8.5 underdog.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [12:01] The 49ers minus six versus the Panthers. [12:03] Break this one down for us, Lee. [12:04] So, Charlotte, another team I don't think belonged in any tournament. [12:09] I know they had a 19 overall record, 19-14, [12:12] but they were 9 in conference play In fact they finished this season losing their last three games So this is not a good team here They did beat Western Carolina the first round of the CBI tournament [12:29] but they went on a 10-0 run the final four minutes to take the lead and win. [12:34] I think it was just maybe a lapse by their opponent. [12:38] But I watched them all season long here. [12:42] I'm not impressed. [12:43] I don't think this is a good team at all. [12:46] Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 22-11, finished 14-6 in an underrated Horizon League conference here. [12:54] They did lose to Cleveland State in the semifinals, but they opened up play. [13:00] And if you look at the score, 87-83 in overtime, I think you're saying, wow, they barely beat Stetson. [13:07] But they were up big. [13:09] I think they just relaxed here. [13:11] I think they'll be motivated here. [13:14] Just think that this team is just so balanced. [13:17] So they have this kid Freeman. [13:19] He is really good here. [13:22] Finished with 43 points in the first game, 10 for 20 shooting. [13:28] Also gets to the free throw line, likes to drive the ball here, [13:31] 20 for 22 from the free throw line. [13:34] Very good team here shooting from the free throw line here. [13:38] So I think they just relax in that game. [13:41] I think they're the much better team here. [13:43] When I saw the line, I thought Wisconsin-Milwaukee should be favored by two to three points here. [13:50] For maybe the first time ever on a Monday, not a level one, not a level two. [13:55] We're going all the way up on Monday. [13:57] It's going to be a huge week for us. [14:00] Level three lock here. [14:02] Wisconsin-Milwaukee over the Charlotte 49ers.”
Charlotte 76, Milwaukee 65 — Charlotte beat Wisconsin-Milwaukee 76-65 in the 2023 CBI quarterfinal; Milwaukee's +6 line needed a loss of 5 points or fewer and fell short by 11.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [4:06] The D.C. Defenders minus 2 versus St. Louis. [4:09] Let's break this one down for us, Lee. [4:10] So we are on a roll with the service for the XFL. [4:13] Eight and two. [4:14] That's right. [4:14] Eight and two. [4:15] And we've won all four weeks, even one to start week five. [4:19] Last night, we had Seattle underdog. [4:21] They went out right 21-14. [4:23] And I think I've found another winner here, and it's going on Saturday. [4:28] We going to go against my team I predicted the D defenders I given them out three of the four weeks and they covered and won every single week But now is finally the time to go against them [4:41] Everyone talks, and I've been building it up, [4:44] that home field advantage they have in D.C. [4:46] They're selling out. [4:47] Well, how about St. Louis? [4:49] They had over 38,000 fans for their game here. [4:53] So the Beer Snake Garden, they're not playing there this week. [4:58] It's in St. Louis. [5:00] A.J. McCarron has looked really good. [5:03] Brian Hill, he's playing really well. [5:07] So I just think that this is a really good team here. [5:12] Just had a few bad breaks or three and one. [5:14] They're going to go up against Jordan Tamu. [5:17] We've talked about him and Derek King. [5:19] They run the football, does D.C. [5:21] But I think that St. Louis, they should have won the first game here. [5:25] They're going to be able to adjust here. [5:27] They have enough options on offense to stretch out the D.C. defense here. [5:32] And this game is priced wrong here. [5:35] Wrong team favorite. [5:37] We're going with the St. Louis Battle Hawks here plus the two. [5:42] They knock off the undefeated D.C. defenders on Saturday.”
DC 28, St. Louis 20 — D.C. Defenders beat St. Louis Battlehawks 28-20 on March 18, 2023; the Battlehawks' +2 line needed a loss of 1 point or fewer and fell short by 8.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [7:53] Memphis minus one and a half versus FAU. [7:55] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:56] All right, so we're going to go with three March Madness selections to end the show. [8:02] And this is a game that I love here. [8:05] I've been watching Memphis here all year long. [8:07] And they scratched and clawed. [8:10] And they won their conference tournament to get in. [8:13] But Houston set out two starters. [8:15] That's right. [8:16] They sat out two starters to get in here. [8:19] So give them credit. [8:21] They got in the tournament. [8:23] They were an underdog in the game. [8:24] They won the game by 10. [8:25] But without those two guys playing, it was a completely different ballgame. [8:29] This FAU team can score. [8:32] Went up to a couple of their games. [8:33] They're averaging, not have hit a couple times, [8:36] have averaged 78.2% points per game here. [8:42] They're hitting on over [8:45] 35% of their threes [8:47] here. They got [8:49] a bunch of players that can get up [8:51] and down. Bench is good [8:53] here. I know Memphis averages [8:55] actually more [8:57] points than them, 79 points per [8:59] game here but I don think they deep enough here Their defense has struggled for Memphis They given up almost 72 points a game here Hey give Memphis credit for getting in there but this is a case of [9:12] 8-9 game here where [9:14] little guy is going to take down [9:17] the giant here. [9:19] Hardaway's team is going down. [9:21] We're going to go with a [9:22] level 2 lock here [9:24] on Friday. FAU [9:26] Owls advance to the round of [9:28] 32.”
MEM 65, FAU 66 — Florida Atlantic beat Memphis 66-65 in the 2023 NCAA Tournament first round, winning outright as a +1.5 underdog.
“FanDuel.com line for this one. [10:26] K-State minus 7.5 versus Montana State. [10:29] Break this one down for us, Lee. [10:30] All right, so in years past, I have backed teams from this conference, Big Sky. [10:36] They usually slow the game down. [10:39] They play really good fundamentals, play good defense, have timely shooting, but not this year. [10:46] So Montana State, listen to the teams that they beat in November and December. [10:53] Long Beach State, Warner Pacific. [10:56] I didn't know that was a team or a college. [10:57] Southern Utah. [11:01] They beat St. Thomas, Minnesota. [11:04] I actually know about it because I had a nephew who went there. [11:07] It's a little tiny school with about 2,000 students. [11:10] Nebraska, Omaha, Northwest Indian. [11:14] Didn't know that was a school either. [11:16] And then they get into conference play. [11:19] They just, this is not a good team. [11:21] Listen to who they also lost to. [11:25] They lost to UNC Greensboro by double digits, lost to Quinnipiac by 17 points, lost to Middle Tennessee State, lost to Eastern Washington. [11:38] The list goes on and on. [11:40] This team, they don't have the firepower here. [11:43] They don't have the interior defense. [11:46] I know people talk about Kansas State. [11:49] They say, well, they're not the same on the road here. [11:51] They'll have more fans at this game than Montana State here. [11:54] I think they have something to prove here. [11:57] So Kansas State here, I think their defense is going to return to form. [12:02] I think the rest, a couple extra days rest is going to do them well here. [12:07] I think Keontae Johnson averages 17.7 points per game [12:12] while shooting over 51% from the field and almost 42% from downtown. [12:18] He's going to have a big game here. [12:21] Level three lock all the way up. [12:23] Kansas State Wildcats, they get the job done on Friday for me.”
KSU 77, MTST 65 — Kansas State beat Montana State 77-65 (Nowell 17 pts, 14 ast) in the 2023 NCAA Tournament first round, covering as a -7.5 favorite.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [13:27] Miami minus one and a half versus Drake. [13:29] Midwest region. [13:30] Break it down for us, Lee. [13:31] All right so everyone is talking about how Drake is going to be the giant killer here And more bets on the Friday games for an underdog been placed on Drake than any other team [13:44] Almost 76% of the wagers are coming on Drake plus the points. [13:50] I don't see it. [13:51] O'Meara, [13:51] the starting center for Miami, [13:53] it looks like he'll play. [13:54] He'll be at least 85%. [13:56] If that's the case, [13:58] Drake's an outside team. [13:59] They like to shoot the ball. [14:00] Miami has eight guys, [14:02] eight guys that they rotate from point guard to power forward, [14:06] and they're all 6'6", they're interchangeable on defense. [14:11] They can lock down on you. [14:13] Jordan Miller may be the most underrated player in the country, [14:16] a left-hander 6'7", the wingspan of a 6'11 guy. [14:21] He does everything. [14:22] He can wheel and deal in the lane, and he's almost unguardable. [14:27] He hits threes, rebounds the ball extremely well. [14:32] O'Meara, I think, is going to be fine for this game. [14:34] Coach Laranego, how good is he? [14:37] He led him to the Elite Eight last year. [14:39] I think they're going to be ready. [14:41] I don't think they're going to be napping. [14:42] And Drake, like I said, a team that shoots threes. [14:45] But who have they beaten in November? [14:48] Listen to some of the teams they beat. [14:51] IUPUI, Wilford, Buffalo, Wyoming, Carlton State. [14:56] Then they moved to December and beat Illinois, Chicago. [15:01] Nebraska, Omaha, St. Ambrose, and Valparaiso. [15:08] I'm not impressed. [15:09] The only win they have all year, that's it, believe it or not, [15:14] is against Mississippi State. [15:16] Other than that, I'm not impressed. [15:19] I mean, they lost to Indiana State. [15:21] They lost to Richmond. [15:22] They lost to St. Louis in conference play. [15:25] They lost another four games. [15:27] The Missouri Valley is not great. [15:29] Hey, give Drake credit. [15:31] Nice season. [15:33] It ends here. [15:34] A low-out special. [15:36] The Miami Hurricanes, they're going to be full of a lot of air tonight. [15:41] I think they win this game easy over Drake.”
MIA 63, DRKE 56 — Miami beat Drake 63-56 (Pack 21 pts) in the 2023 NCAA Tournament first round, covering as a -1.5 favorite.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [3:14] A&M minus 2.5 versus Penn State. [3:16] Break this one down for us, Lee. [3:18] All right, so most people, they can't even tell you Penn State's head coach. [3:21] I've been watching this guy for a couple years, Micah Shrewsbury. [3:25] He is something special. [3:28] He has built this program from nowhere. [3:31] No one talks about Penn State basketball. [3:34] I've been talking them up. [3:35] I thought they were going to play better early in the year, but it took them a while. [3:39] But they have come together. [3:40] maybe the only team in March Madness. [3:43] They start not one not two not three not four but five seniors So you talk about senior leadership guys that have grown together seem to really like each other They have an alpha dog named Jalen Pickett [4:01] This guy sets him up into the office offense here, [4:04] and when they need the big basket, he's the guy that delivers. [4:08] So they play a lot of tight games, a lot. [4:11] And the public would love to see Texas A&M play Texas in the second round. [4:17] That would be a made-for-TV game. [4:20] They'd put it on prime time, but I don't think it's going to happen here. [4:24] The Aggies, they don't shoot three points well. [4:27] Yep, good defensive team, but they have not faced a team like this [4:32] that can be patient, that can come down from 6, 8, 10 points, [4:36] and if they have the lead, they know how to hold on to the ball [4:39] and not turn the ball over and hit free throws. [4:42] So A&M, really good rebounding, really good defense, [4:46] but I just don't see the offense here. [4:49] And I think this is a team that is exhausted from playing the tournament. [4:53] They had to go to the championship game, [4:55] and then they were just totally outclassed. [4:58] Penn State winning the championship game, [5:00] but I see them getting better and better and better. [5:03] They're 5-1 against the spread the last six games. [5:06] The wrong team is favored. [5:09] I'm thinking Penn State straight up over Texas A&M tonight.”
Penn State 76, Texas A&M 59 — Penn State beat Texas A&M 76-59 in the 2023 NCAA Tournament first round, winning outright as the moneyline pick.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:14] Rafael Adaman Fizyev minus 245 versus the highlight Gaethje with the take back being plus 186. [6:20] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:22] All right, so I'm going to be upfront and honest. [6:24] Justin Gaethje is my favorite fighter in the UFC and just love watching him fight. [6:31] This guy lays it on the line. [6:34] There is so much action. [6:35] He goes toe to toe. [6:37] He's had some absolute wars. [6:39] When he came into the UFC in 2017, the ultimate fighter, he beat Michael Johnson. [6:45] Big win. [6:47] Listen to the fighters he has fought against. [6:50] Eddie Alvarez, Dustin Poirier. [6:53] The only guy that's nothing special is James Vick, one in the first round, but then Edson Barbosa, Donald Cowboy Cerrone. [7:04] Talk about legends. [7:05] Tony Ferguson, Khabib, who he lost when he fought for the title. [7:11] Then a war with Michael Chandler, which he won. [7:14] And then a loss where he was defeated by rear naked choke in the first round to Charles Oliveira. [7:22] Absolute wars. [7:24] So much fun to watch. [7:25] I backed him a few times. [7:27] Usually can figure this guy out, but I'm going against him. [7:31] He's fighting a guy named Rafael Fiziev, and most people don't know this guy. [7:37] Only 13 professional fights In fact this is a guy his first UFC fight was just in 2019 April 2019 [7:50] Now, only one defeat, and that was his first defeat. [7:53] Has not fought the high-level fighters, although he's beaten Rafael Dos Anjos, [7:59] beaten Bobby Green. [8:01] But this is a guy, I think, in his prime. [8:03] In everything, when you look at a fight, it's about matchups. [8:07] It's not about how good you are, how exciting you are. [8:12] Everything that Gaethje can do, Fizyev can do better. [8:15] Stand up, he's better. [8:17] They want to go to the ground, better. [8:19] They want to kick, better. [8:21] So the reason he's a 245 favorite here is he's flat out better. [8:28] I hate to say it, but Justin Gaethje's going down here. [8:32] Blowout special against my favorite fighter here. [8:35] Rafael Fiziev, the Ottoman, gets it done here on UFC 286.”
Justin Gaethje beat Rafael Fiziev by majority decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-28) at UFC 286 on March 18, 2023; Fiziev's moneyline pick lost.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [11:20] The Nets minus 2.5 versus the Kings. [11:22] Break this one down for us. [11:24] Boy, did Sacramento have to come from behind last night. [11:26] They got to play a back-to-back after being in Chicago. [11:30] Now they got to fly to New York And second half they had to outscore Chicago by 15 in the third quarter and then hold on to when they came 117 [11:42] So this is a bad spot. [11:45] The NBA is all about spots. [11:47] And when you watch that game last night, Sacramento team, I mean, look at De'Aaron Fox. [11:52] He is playing some great basketball. [11:55] Another 32-point game. [11:58] Sabonis, he had a huge game. [12:01] He had not only 14 points, 17 rebounds and 10 assists. [12:06] But the problem here is Harrison Barnes is not playing great ball the last couple weeks. [12:12] So they need him. [12:14] They also need Kagan Murray, who I like a lot, but he is ice cold. [12:18] He only had nine points in that game, two for seven from the field. [12:22] Barnes, three for ten. [12:24] And also the bench. [12:26] Davion Mitchell, I love the kid. [12:28] but the last couple games hasn't scored a point here. [12:32] So they're going to need Malik Monk to have a big game [12:35] if they want to stay with Brooklyn. [12:36] Brooklyn doesn't have any star players anymore. [12:39] Traded them all away. [12:40] Even Ben Simmons is injured. [12:42] But they have a lot of good players. [12:44] They're playing well. [12:45] I'm hearing reports this is a happy team, a dangerous team here. [12:50] They have the extra day to get ready while Sacramento has to fly in. [12:54] They're going to be exhausted here from the excitement of making the playoffs here. [12:59] I think it's a great spot, great situational spot here. [13:03] Level two lock on Thursday. [13:05] We're going to go with the Brooklyn Nets over the Sacramento Kings.”
Sacramento 101, Brooklyn 96 — Kings beat Nets 101-96 (Sabonis 24 pts, 21 reb, 4 blk); Brooklyn lost outright as a -2.5 favorite.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [4:47] San Diego State minus 5.5 versus Charleston. [4:50] Break this one down for us, Lee. [4:51] Well, probably because you're a chocolate guy and you're thinking of the Charleston Chew. [4:54] Yep. [4:56] You remember that bar? [4:57] Yes, I do. [4:58] I don't think it exists anymore, does it? [4:59] I don't have any idea, but I sure do remember it like it was yesterday. [5:02] The old Charleston Chew. [5:04] So here's the thing. [5:06] So you're looking for trends, and people like 12-5 matchups. [5:10] And this is one of them. [5:11] Lately, the 13 and 4s have been covering. [5:14] But let's look deeper into what's going on in the tournament. [5:17] And what we've seen over the last decade is teams that win 30 games or more, [5:23] they're no joke. [5:23] You can talk about whatever conference they're playing in. [5:26] They've got to play extremely well. [5:29] And what's happening here is the last 10 years, [5:33] teams that have won 30 or more games that are not major conferences, [5:38] like the SEC, Big 12, Big 10, or ACC or Pac-12, [5:43] They are good teams, and not in major conferences or using the name Gonzaga. [5:50] These teams are 10-2 straight up. [5:55] Not against the spread, 10-2 straight up against their opponent in the first round. [6:01] Now, you're getting five and a half points against San Diego State. [6:06] Charleston, a lot of people don't know this, but they got this guard, Dalton Bolton, really good. [6:11] It doesn't turn the ball over. [6:12] Hits the key shot. [6:14] The 6'10 sophomore center, Ante Bravic from Croatia. [6:18] Good inside-outside combination here. [6:21] They shoot threes early and often. [6:25] I think they're going to win this game outright here. [6:28] We're going to start off with a game that's being played tomorrow. [6:32] I want you to get on it right now. [6:36] Charleston, plus the 5.5 points, they win outright.”
San Diego State 63, Charleston 57 — San Diego State beat Charleston 63-57 in the 2023 NCAA Tournament first round; Charleston's +5.5 line needed a loss of 5 or fewer and fell short by 6.
“Arizona State minus two versus Nevada. [7:46] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:48] All right, so I think Bobby Hurley was the better playmaker. [7:51] Steve Alford the better shooter. [7:53] But you're going to see some pretty good guard play here in this game here. [7:58] But the difference might be Nevada. [8:00] You know, they dropped their final three games of the season, [8:02] losing to San Jose State. [8:05] Not in the finals or even the semifinals. [8:07] The quarterfinals of the Mountain West tournament, they fell behind, finished 22-10. [8:14] Mountain West was pretty good, but just felt that Arizona State can get up for that one game. [8:19] I don't think that Arizona State's going to be a team or Nevada that can make a run here, [8:24] but can they win a game, maybe two games? [8:28] I think so here. [8:30] They advanced to the semifinals of the Pac-12 tournament before they lost to Arizona, [8:35] and it was expected. [8:36] They knocked off Arizona with that. [8:38] I think it was more than a half court shot uh to win that game So I think everyone knew Arizona was going to be ready for that game They were 11 in conference play here So they made it close [8:49] There was a couple times they made it a four- or five-point game in the second half, [8:54] just couldn't come up with that key basket against a much better team here. [8:58] But they put up an average of over 70 points per game here. [9:02] I think they're going to control the boards, [9:04] and I think that's the difference here in this game here. [9:07] They average over 36.9 rebounds per game, and they dish out over 14.2 assists here. [9:15] So they're above average also defensively. [9:18] It might come down to one or two stops here. [9:21] So I just think that the Wolfpack here just not playing good enough basketball here. [9:26] And as long as Arizona State doesn't get in foul trouble, I think they're going to be in good shape here. [9:31] I'm going to lay the two-and-a-half points tonight. [9:34] Love this play in action. [9:36] What we seem to do well, start my run in the tourney, Arizona State, [9:41] and Sparky minus the two-and-a-half over the Wolf Pack here. [9:46] Blowout special.”
Arizona State 98, Nevada 73 — Arizona State routed Nevada 98-73 in the NCAA Tournament First Four, covering easily as a -2.5 favorite.
“fanduel.com line for this one the clippers minus [12:09] three versus the warriors break this one down for us lee yeah and and golden state looked really good [12:15] the other night against phoenix i mean what happened steph curry started off red hot and then [12:22] Klay Thompson caught fire. [12:25] He was unstoppable in that game. [12:29] Eight for 14, not from the field, from three-point land. [12:33] He was better from three-point land than he was from the free throw line [12:36] where he was only two for five. [12:38] But Steph Curry, he chipped in 23. [12:42] He was four for six. [12:45] They got help from Jordan Poole. [12:47] He went four for eight from three-point land. [12:49] I think it's going to be tough here because what's going to happen, they're going to be matched up against guys that can play defensively. [12:57] L Clippers have some guys on the wings and Kawhi Leonard who can really clamp down on you Paul George even Russell Westbrook So this is a challenge The last game the Warriors won but it was at home The last game between these two [13:12] teams, they won. It was at home. What happened when they played before that earlier in the year [13:19] in LA? The Clippers won the game here. So I think the Clippers will be ready. They're clicking on [13:25] all cylinders. They're playing really good basketball. They've won three straight. They [13:30] beat Memphis by six, beat Toronto by eight, and they beat the New York Knicks who were red hot by [13:36] 11 here. I think they're going to get it done here. Maybe not by double digits, but by more than three [13:42] points, it'll be tight for a while here. Also like Tyronn Lue, I like what he's doing with his [13:48] rotation. He's really mixing in guys, getting them in at the right time, putting them against [13:54] the right opponents and the right players. [13:57] And I look for a big game maybe from Terrence Mann here, [14:00] looking for someone to break out here. [14:03] Had a poor game last game, but always plays defense, [14:06] and defense fuels his offense. [14:08] Look for him. [14:09] Sometimes they don't give you an over-under on some of the guys coming off the bench, [14:13] but if he's available or Eric Gordon, you might want to fire on these two guys. [14:19] So we're going to go with a level two lock on Wednesday. [14:22] the LA Clippers over the Golden State Warriors.”
LAC 134, GS 126 — Clippers beat Warriors 134-126 despite 50 points from Steph Curry; LA covered as a -3 favorite.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [4:11] Rutgers minus 7.5 versus Hofstra. [4:14] Break this one down for us, Lee. [4:15] All right, Hofstra Pride. [4:17] They had a really good season. [4:19] They were the best team in the CAA all year, [4:22] but they had a shocking loss in the conference semifinals [4:26] that sent them to the NIT, but really strong 24-9 record. [4:31] So most people look at their road record and say, [4:35] oh, okay, they're going to have trouble here in a road game, [4:39] but they're just getting on a bus. [4:41] That's it. [4:41] And going to this game, they'll be fired up for this game. [4:44] And Rutgers just couldn't get it done down the stretch here, [4:47] so that's the problem for them. [4:50] They just, you know, even though they've been good at home, [4:52] I don't think they're going to be up for this game. [4:55] They were listed as one of the first four out, [4:57] and they can say whatever they want. [5:01] I know the coach made a statement that they're going to be fired up for this game, [5:04] But they're going to face a Hofstra team on the offensive, [5:08] and it ranks 26th nationally in field goal percentage, [5:11] ranked 58th in scoring defense, top 30 in field goal percentage defense [5:17] against three-point shot here. [5:20] So Aaron Estrada, elite scorer, averaging 20.5 points per game here. [5:25] So I think he's going to be able to create his shot. [5:28] And it's all about motivation here. [5:31] Rutgers, they're just going to be going through the motions. [5:33] no matter what they're saying, players, coaches, fans, [5:37] there will not be a packed house here. [5:40] Probably at best, they'll sell maybe 4,000 or 5,000 seats for this game. [5:44] So we're going to go with a Hofstra pride here, plus the points. [5:48] Our wrong team favorite.”
Hofstra 88, Rutgers 86 — Hofstra beat Rutgers 88-86 in overtime in the 2023 NIT first round, winning outright and covering as a +7.5 underdog.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:34] Utah State minus one versus Missouri. [6:37] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:38] I thought Dennis Gates did a great job with Missouri. [6:41] I mean, this is a program that was nowhere [6:43] just a third tournament since 2014. [6:47] Playing aggressive style of defense. [6:50] They want to get you into turning the ball over [6:53] and top 10 in turnover rate. [6:56] But here's the problem here. [6:59] They are in trouble when they can't create turnover. [7:02] They rank 250th or worse when defending the two-point shot and the three-point shot. [7:10] So they're also the worst defensive rebounding team in the nation. [7:15] That's right. [7:16] They made it to the tournament as the worst rebounding team in the nation. [7:21] They allow opponents to recover 38 of their missed shots I don know when I seen a worse stat for a team that gotten this far here So when they not hitting threes they got a real big [7:33] time problem. They also are one in six. That's right. One in six [7:37] against top 60 teams. I just think that [7:41] they're in trouble here. This is a Utah State team that has [7:45] not one, but two players that shoot threes in the [7:49] top ten in the country. [7:50] They don't turn the ball over. [7:52] So bad matchup here for the Missouri Tigers here. [7:56] Blowout special. [7:58] Utah State Aggies here. [8:00] They're favored by one point for a reason.”
Missouri 76, Utah State 65 — Missouri beat Utah State 76-65 in the 2023 NCAA Tournament first round; Utah State lost outright as a -1 favorite.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [10:04] New Orleans and Lakers, it's a pick-em, Lee. [10:06] Break this one down for us. [10:07] Yep, they got the same record here. [10:10] Pick-em, all you got to do is pick the winner here. [10:12] and they played well for a while. [10:14] I mean, this is a team that everyone thought when LeBron won out, they were done. [10:18] But they actually have won for the last six games. [10:22] But if you watch that next game, you see the dam just starting to break here. [10:28] So teams can play well for a while. [10:30] They pull it together, play team basketball. [10:34] But on defense, they're giving up 117.2 points per game. [10:38] They're allowing opponents to shoot almost 47% from the floor. [10:43] This is 22nd most points given up per game, 10th lowest shooting percentage allowed here. [10:50] So I think they're facing a Pelicans team that can shoot from the outside, [10:55] and I just don't know if this Lakers team can extend that and be able to win. [11:02] And the Pelicans here have had trouble allowing a lot of three points here and I just don think that the Lakers are consistent enough doing that So a lot of people are going to ride with the Lakers here [11:15] I think they can maybe hold on for a little bit longer, but who knows? [11:19] Might see Ingram back for this game. [11:22] I think there's a good chance he plays in that game here. [11:25] And like I said, just think that the Lakers just don't have enough weapons here. [11:30] So when you're allowing teams to shoot early and often and be successful, [11:34] eventually the dam's going to break. So give them credit for a while, but not happening tonight, [11:39] especially on the road here. Level one lock on Tuesday. We're going with the New Orleans Pelicans [11:45] as a pick them.”
NO 108, LAL 123 — Lakers beat Pelicans 123-108; New Orleans lost outright as the moneyline pick.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:26] The Maple Leafs minus one and a half goals, minus 108 versus Buffalo. [6:29] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:30] So the Buffalo Sabres have one major problem that is likely going to keep them out of the playoffs this season. [6:37] Goaltending. [6:38] This team has an elite forward group, top five offense, and power play. [6:44] But after allowing 10 goals at home the other night to the Dallas Stars, that's right. [6:49] I'm going to repeat that, 10 goals in a game to the Dallas Stars. [6:53] They have the sixth worst five-on-five save percentage in the NHL [6:57] with 41-year-old Craig Anderson in the Nets. [7:00] Also Eric Comrie plays a bunch too. [7:03] Toronto, on the other hand, red hot, winning eight of the last ten [7:07] and putting up four-plus goals in six of those games. [7:11] Toronto's also already won both meetings with Buffalo, [7:14] scoring a combined 11 goals in those two games. [7:17] When your goaltending is as shaky as it is right now for Buffalo [7:20] and your playoff hopes are slipping away, [7:23] it can really mess with the way a team plays in other areas too. [7:27] So I just don't think mentally they're ready for this matchup here. [7:33] Physically, no. [7:34] I just don't think they're cut out for the postseason this year. [7:37] And Toronto will show that tonight. [7:40] They're going to make them pay. [7:41] Take their Toronto Maple Leafs minus the one-and-a-half goals, [7:44] minus 108 blowout special over the Buffalo Sabres.”
3-4 — Buffalo beat Toronto 4-3; the Maple Leafs lost outright, so -1.5 fails (ESPN).
“The FanDuel.com line on this one. [8:35] The Warriors minus 4-and-a-half, minus 110 versus Suns. [8:38] Break this one down for us, Lee. [8:39] That, to me, I don't think I've ever seen anything like this before. [8:43] So can you imagine if you're a team like Golden State sitting at 6, [8:50] You go and have a bad stretch run for the last 13 games in the NBA, [8:56] you're going to have a playoff. [8:57] That's right. [8:58] The Clippers, Golden State, Dallas teams, you know, [9:03] you figure they're already in the playoffs. [9:05] Nope. [9:06] If they have a bad run the last 10, 11, 12 games, [9:09] they're not even going to make the playoffs. [9:11] So Oklahoma City's getting hot. [9:13] New Orleans at 11, 12, they're getting hot. [9:15] They're starting to win this past week. [9:17] So look out. [9:18] Now, everyone makes a lot of Golden State's road record. [9:22] It's awful. [9:22] I mean, I don't know if we've ever seen a defending champion [9:25] with pretty much the same pieces go 7-26 in the year, [9:29] but they're 28-7 home games. [9:33] That's what they are in the 35 home games. [9:35] They've covered the spread 23-11-1. [9:40] 23-11-1. [9:42] I mean, that's an incredible spread record here. [9:45] since Steph Curry's return. [9:47] It looks like they're starting to round into shape here in Phoenix. [9:52] They're going to need Devin Booker. [9:53] You know, last win that they had, he scores 44 points. [9:58] He's going to have to be incredible. [10:00] So without Kevin Durant, [10:01] I just don't know if they have enough offense here to stay with Golden State. [10:06] I'm going to lay the points here. [10:07] We're going to go out with two locks today. [10:11] Let's start it off with a level one lock. [10:14] Golden State Warriors lay the points as they take on and defeat the Phoenix Suns.”
123-112 — Golden State beat Phoenix 123-112; margin of 11 covers the -4.5 spread (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [11:20] The Bucs minus 1.5, minus 1.10 versus Sacramento. [11:24] Break this one down for us, Lee. [11:25] Yeah, and so the Milwaukee Bucs sitting at 48-19. [11:30] They did see their three-game winning streak come to an end [11:33] when they lost to Golden State on the road on Saturday night in OT, 125-116. [11:38] I mean, they have won those 19 of the last 21 games. [11:42] They're leading the Eastern Conference by one and a half games, [11:46] so they want to stay on top here. [11:49] These face a team with just too many weapons here. [11:52] So Milwaukee good defense here well ninth in points scored sixth in points allowed But I just think on the road they are a different team here Now the Greek freak did not play in the last two games [12:09] List is questionable. [12:10] Even if he plays here, I think they're up against it. [12:13] This Sacramento team here already earned their playoff berth, [12:17] so they know that they're set here. [12:19] I think they can relax here. [12:22] They're 8-1 in their last nine. [12:24] As I mentioned, second place in the Western Conference, 21-13 at home, [12:29] 7-3 against the spread their last 10. [12:32] So I just think these guys, they know their roles here. [12:36] In fact, they've got 53%. [12:38] That's right, 53% over the last five games. [12:43] So I'm going to take Sacramento here. [12:45] I think they continue rolling on here. [12:48] Small spot here. [12:49] Too much offense here. [12:51] and Greek Freak maybe not 100% even if he does plays. [12:55] I think it's going to be in Sacramento's favor here. [12:58] We're going to go with a level two lock on Monday also. [13:02] Sacramento Kings with Milwaukee Bucks.”
124-133 — Milwaukee beat Sacramento 133-124; the Kings lost by 9, so +1.5 fails (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Cavaliers minus one and a half, minus 114, [3:55] with the take back for the Heat being plus one and a half, minus 106. [3:59] Break this one down for us, Lee. [4:00] Yeah, so Cleveland comes into Miami. This is what I don't like as a fan. [4:05] I mean, can you imagine if you have season tickets, and I do, [4:07] you get to see the same team twice in three days. [4:12] I just don't like it. [4:13] I mean, it's also tough on the players. [4:16] You've got to play the same team. [4:18] I think they're bored with it. [4:20] I know it was a byproduct of COVID, [4:23] but I think they eventually got to do away with it. [4:26] I mean, the back-to-backs once in a while, [4:28] you know, if you've got the Knicks at home [4:31] and they play Brooklyn at home [4:33] and then a day or two later play in Brooklyn, [4:36] and that's fine once in a while. [4:37] But, you know, when teams come in just to help out with travel, [4:42] I mean, these guys are fine. [4:43] It's not like they're traveling, you know, in culture. [4:46] They're traveling in style. [4:48] It's all private aircraft now for almost every single NBA team. [4:53] They sleep on it. [4:54] They get meals that we dream about. [4:57] And Cleveland won the first game 104-100. [5:01] Miami shot awful, again, from three-point range. [5:04] In fact, 27%, 8 for 29 from the field. [5:09] They're just not getting it done from the three-point line. [5:12] But, you know, three-point shooting comes and goes here. [5:15] I think they're going to play Duncan Robinson. [5:17] Eric Spolster took some heat for not putting him in the last game. [5:20] I think he'll play in this game more. [5:22] They had 22 turnovers also. [5:24] I really believe in Eric Spolster. [5:26] He's one of these guys. [5:27] He makes adjustments. [5:28] I think one of the best two or three coaches in the NBA. [5:31] They still have a good defense. [5:33] It's number 7th rated defense, 12th against a three-point shot. [5:38] Cleveland, you know, the coach is okay. [5:40] J.B. Bickerstaff, you know the name is Father Bernie Bickerstaff, [5:43] who actually works in the Cleveland Cavaliers front office. [5:47] They're good, but I think they're going to be up against it here [5:51] with the Heat playing at home, which is always tough here. [5:54] So I'm going to go with a wrong team favorite, my Miami Heat here. [5:59] Usually know when to jump on them or jump off them. [6:01] I'm jumping back on for this one game here. [6:04] Plus one and a half, minus 106 at home tonight versus the Cleveland Cavs.”
119-115 — Miami beat Cleveland 119-115; the Heat won outright, easily covering +1.5 (ESPN).
“The FanDuel.com line on this one. [7:05] Texas minus 2.5 versus TCU. [7:07] Break this one down to Big 12, Lee. [7:09] You know, it's crazy. [7:10] Texas has been so under the radar this year. [7:13] All everyone talks about is their coach, you know, getting let go. [7:16] And now it looks like he might end up going to Ole Miss. [7:20] But you know they just have played really good basketball The average person couldn tell you their record couldn tell you that they ranked seventh in the country or 24 [7:33] They're just resilient. [7:35] After they lose, they lost to TCU last Wednesday, 75-73. [7:42] They bounced back and they beat Kansas. [7:45] The last three times before that in February, they lost. [7:48] They bounced back here. [7:49] I think there's pressure on TCU. [7:52] TCU doesn't want to be one of these last teams led into the tournament, [7:55] have to play a play-in game here. [7:57] So I think the pressure's on TCU. [7:59] They don't do any one thing great. [8:01] They're like average and everything. [8:03] Checking like offense, 90-second. [8:05] Free throws, 243rd in a close game with a two-and-a-half point line, [8:11] just 71% of your free throws, number 123 in defense. [8:17] So they're like 92nd to 260th in almost every major statistical category. [8:24] Texas' three-point shooting has improved here in free throw shooting. [8:28] I think that's the difference here. [8:30] We're going to go with a blowout special tonight in the Big 12 here. [8:35] Texas keeps rolling minus the 2.5 over TCU.”
66-60 — Texas beat TCU 66-60 in the Big 12 semifinal; margin of 6 covers the -2.5 spread (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [10:27] Duke minus 2.5 with the total being 144.5 minus 115 if you go over, [10:33] minus 105 if you're under versus Miami. [10:37] Lee, break this one down for us. [10:38] I think this could be a game for the agents, and I do agree with you. [10:41] I think this should be the championship game. [10:43] I think right now, not saying for the whole year, these are the two best teams. [10:48] So if you just look at raw numbers and you see Duke, you're like, wow, the 181st straight offense. [10:55] Why are you thinking about the over? [10:57] Well, five of the last six games above 71 points. [11:02] And yesterday versus Pitt, 96 points. [11:06] And a stat I tell you doesn happen often in the NBA or college basketball When a team shoots above 60 first game keep riding them But they playing Miami giving up two and a half points [11:18] I know they're going to be psyched for this game. [11:20] They won the first game, close game, in Cameron Indoor. [11:24] And then Miami blitzed Duke in the second game. [11:28] So 62.1% from the field tells me they're going to keep scoring here. [11:33] And Miami has trouble on defense. [11:36] Believe it or not, it's a team, top 15 rated team, 232nd on defense. [11:43] Their best and biggest starter on defense, O'Mears. [11:47] Kid O'Mears, transfer from Arkansas State, he's 6'7". [11:51] Their biggest starter is 6'7". [11:53] I know Jordan Miller, 6'6", probably plays, has a wingspan of 6'11", [11:58] but this is a team that has trouble with teams that have an inside offense. [12:03] And Duke has a bunch of bigs, and they can get inside and score. [12:07] In the first game, they missed everything. [12:09] Missed wide open shots inside and outside, even free throws. [12:14] So I think Duke comes to play here. [12:17] Miami's trouble guarding talented offensive players like Duke. [12:22] And Miami, get this, they've scored more than 74 points in 10 straight games. [12:28] Both these teams are going to be jacked up for this game. [12:31] I'm not picking a winner. [12:32] I'm going to go with over. [12:33] I think this game is going to go over 144.5 total points, minus 115.”
85-78 — Duke beat Miami 85-78 in the ACC semifinal; combined 163 points clears the 144.5 total (ESPN).
“The FanDuel.com line on this one. [5:54] Bulldog, Da Silva, minus 190 versus Tyson with the take back being plus 160. [5:59] Break this one down for us. [6:00] All right, so if he was the bullfrog, then you'd probably go for him. [6:05] But he's only the bulldog. [6:07] He's 2-2 in the UFC. [6:09] Both wins versus tomato can opponents, in my opinion. [6:14] Both losses to mediocre fighters. [6:17] He hasn't fought in two years. [6:19] He's going to fight Tyson Nam, who actually, before his last fight, [6:22] had 13 months off Y in ACL surgery to his knee, [6:26] Came back really strong, a counter right hook, TKO at 259 of the first round, [6:34] and knocked down a pretty good Odie Osborne in August, middle of August in round one. [6:39] So I was very impressed. [6:40] He has big-time power. [6:43] He's 3-3 in the UFC here. [6:45] All his losses to top-quality opponents here. [6:49] All three of his wins were by KO or TKO here. [6:53] So all three of those losses by decision. [6:55] So it wasn't like he lost a lot. [6:58] He has a two-inch advantage as far as reach, two-inch, three-inch advantage here as far as height here. [7:07] Believe it or not, he's 39 years old and Bruno De Silva only 32. [7:13] I think he's actually the better-conditioned fighter. [7:15] I think he's going to push the fight here. [7:18] And usually it's the opposite way around. [7:21] Been following him. [7:22] Didn't love the way he started in the UFC. [7:24] But here's a guy that's just, I think, just starting to reach his potential. [7:29] I heard in an interview, he was talking about his recovery, how he's paying more attention. [7:34] He used to, living in Hawaii, have their box lunches, and it was involved like rice and all these different things. [7:42] And he said he felt like he had to go to sleep after eating all the time after he was training and just was not eating well. [7:48] but recovery, sleep, nutrition, no alcohol anymore, totally changed around. [7:55] So he's probably one of the youngest 39-year-old fighters I've seen here. [7:58] Bet a little, win a whole lot. [8:01] Tyson Nam here is going to take out here Bruno Bulldog. [8:06] Gustavo Da Silva here, Bet a little, win a whole lot.”
Bruno Silva submitted Tyson Nam via rear-naked choke in round 2 at UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili; the Tyson Nam moneyline loses (Wikipedia event page, sourced from official UFC result).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [9:47] The Ducks, minus 2.5, minus 120 versus Washington State, [9:50] with the take-back being plus 2.5, minus 102. [9:53] Break this one down for us, Lee. [9:55] All right, so start of the season, Oregon was the better team. [9:58] Maybe even midseason they were the better team, [10:00] but since that time they have gone, I would say into a funk. [10:03] They won their last couple games, [10:04] but they just 190th in scoring offense number 80th in defense only hitting 32 of the three shots and only 70 of their free throws [10:17] This is a tight line here. [10:19] It's a two-and-a-half-point line, [10:21] probably going to come down to free throws [10:22] or a big shot. [10:23] Washington State, believe it or not, has one-seven straight. [10:26] They're like one of these teams that can beat the bad teams, [10:29] just can't beat the better teams in the Pac-12. [10:32] And I don't think that Oregon's one of the better teams here. [10:35] So seeing as they've won seven straight, they're hitting almost 37% of their threes. [10:41] They're shooting almost 71.5% on their free throws here. [10:45] And the biggest factor is they do one thing really well, play defense. [10:49] Number 48th ranked defense in college basketball here. [10:53] Wrong team favored. [10:55] I'm taking the Cougs. [10:56] I'm going to Coug it here. [10:58] Washington State plus the two and a half here, minus 102 over the Oregon Ducks at 530 Eastern.”
70-75 — Oregon beat Washington State 75-70 in the Pac-12 tournament; Washington State lost by 5, so +2.5 fails (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [11:54] D.C. Defenders minus 6 versus the Vegas Vipers in the XFL action. [11:58] Lee, break this one down for us. [11:59] Told everyone from the start I love this D.C. Defenders team. [12:03] I love Greg Williams. [12:05] I think he's one of the best defensive coordinators this league is ever going to have. [12:09] And I love the beer snake. [12:11] I love what goes on. [12:12] They sell out games there. [12:14] It is an atmosphere I think the NFL needs to maybe adopt and have more fun at their games. [12:20] And they're playing well. [12:22] I mean, they're finding ways to win here. [12:24] Their defense supports the offense, and they can run the football. [12:28] Vipers, run defense. [12:29] I don't know what's worse. [12:30] Their run defense for that field that they play on looks like a cow pasture called Cashman Field, [12:35] but their run defense giving up league-worst 151.5 yards per game here. [12:42] Jordan Tamu, he also with De'Ara King, rotate in and out, do a decent job there. [12:50] Abram Smith, big-time running back in this league here. [12:53] Brent Huddley has been better, but just don't trust their running backs here. [12:58] and they won the first game pretty easily. [13:01] I think they're going to do it again here. [13:03] I'm going to lay the six points, one of the toughest venues to play [13:07] maybe we've ever seen in one of these new upstart leagues here. [13:12] D.C. Defenders, minus six, a low-out special Sunday night [13:17] over your Vegas Vipers.”
32-18 — D.C. Defenders beat the Vegas Vipers 32-18; margin of 14 covers the -6 spread (ESPN XFL scoreboard).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [15:48] The Kings minus 2.5, minus 108, with the take back for the Knicks being plus 2.5, minus 112. [15:54] Break this one down for us, Lee. [15:55] All right, so no one. [15:57] I don't know anyone who thought that Sacramento not only would make the playoffs, [16:02] but sitting in a position to finish second or third, wow. [16:06] Something special. [16:07] And what's happened between last year and this year? [16:11] Well, everyone has gotten a little bit better on their team. [16:13] A lot of improvement. [16:15] Role players know their role. [16:17] Used to be just selfishness, just an offensive team, no defense. [16:21] But De'Aaron Fox has taken over. [16:23] And what has he done since February 6th? [16:25] Well, in every game he's played, only missed two. [16:28] He's scored at least 25 points. [16:30] He averages 25.5 points. [16:33] He's scored over 40 a couple times here. [16:35] Now, he's listed as probable for this time. [16:38] I do think he's probably going to play with a hamstring issue. [16:41] He'll be matched up if the Knicks get Jalen Brunson back from an ankle injury. [16:46] Even if Jalen Brunson plays and he's listed as questionable, [16:49] I think they're going to sit him out one more game. [16:52] I don't think he's going to be able to stop Fox here. [16:54] I think Fox has too much form here. [16:57] So the Knicks, who were rolling for a while, [17:00] they ended up winning against Boston, [17:03] who Boston had blown that, I don't know, 25, 28-point lead the game before. [17:08] So they ended up losing that game. [17:11] And then what did the Knicks do after they won the game against Boston [17:15] behind Emmanuel Quickleys? [17:17] Huge 38-point game. [17:19] They lose to Charlotte and blew a 20-plus point lead. [17:24] So I think there's some doubts there. [17:26] With Brunson not 100%, the game's in Sacramento. [17:30] They used to have a huge home court advantage. [17:33] It's starting to appear again here. [17:34] I'm laying the two and a half points here, minus 108 with the Sacramento Kings. [17:41] Level one lock on Thursday.”
122-117 — Sacramento beat New York 122-117; margin of 5 covers the -2.5 spread (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [2:57] LaTec minus 2.5 versus FIU. [3:00] Break this one down for us, Lee. [3:01] Yeah, so FIU, you're thinking, oh, okay, you know, kind of lost in the shuffle [3:06] always with the University of Miami. [3:08] But this is a team that's actually improved. [3:11] And their leading scorer, Denver Jones, love that name, Denver Jones, [3:15] averaging 20 points per game, shooting over 48% from the field, [3:21] over 36% from downtown, coming on of late. [3:25] The problem for Louisiana Tech is they've lost seven of the last eight games, [3:30] and the last six games they lost their leading score. [3:34] We're not just talking about anyone. [3:37] Kobe Williams, not Kobe Bryant, Kobe Williams has not played the last six games. [3:41] He's done for the season here. [3:44] They are also one and five against the spread during this run here They can score 65 points per game since he started missing games here [3:58] And these two teams split in their games earlier in the season. [4:02] Neither of these teams are going to go very far, [4:05] but the Panthers, the FIU Panthers can score right now here. [4:10] 66 best field goal shooting percentage. [4:12] percentage. Louisiana Tech [4:14] got to score. College basketball [4:16] now. They can't do it without Kobe. [4:19] We're going to go with FIU. [4:21] Hidden gem here. [4:23] I think they pulled the upset [4:24] in the opening round here”
76-81 — Louisiana Tech beat FIU 81-76 in overtime in the C-USA first round; the FIU moneyline loses (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [5:11] Ohio State minus two and a half versus Wisconsin. [5:14] Lee, make this one make sense. [5:15] Break it down for me. [5:17] Yeah, I thought that Wisconsin was going to be two, two and a half point favorite. [5:23] And I do think that they belong being the favorite here. [5:26] Now, I don't think that they're a tournament team. [5:29] There's been a lot of talk. [5:30] A few different places you look have them in as one of the last teams. [5:34] Some places have them as the first or second team just outside the tournament. [5:39] So this is a big game for them. [5:41] This is a must-win game. [5:43] They might even have to win two games here, but I don't get it. [5:47] This Ohio State team has showed me absolutely nothing here. [5:52] And Wisconsin does one thing really well. [5:55] They play defense. [5:57] This is a team that's top 20 in college basketball and defense here. [6:03] Ohio State's only covered 35.5% of their games this year. [6:08] bottom 20 of all Division I teams in the without Zed Key. [6:13] He's going to be out for the rest of the season. [6:15] They just can't protect the rim. [6:17] If you can't protect the rim, you're in trouble. [6:20] And Wisconsin, they may not have that one superstar, [6:24] but they have four guys that score in double digits. [6:27] So they don't need one guy to carry them. [6:30] Anyone or probably two of the four to have good games, [6:33] they're going to win this game here. [6:34] So we're going to go with the better defensive team. [6:37] We're going to go with a more balanced team here. [6:40] And they may not belong in the tournament here, [6:43] but they're going to win this game here over Ohio State here.”
57-65 — Ohio State beat Wisconsin 65-57 in the Big Ten first round; Wisconsin lost outright, so +2.5 fails (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [10:20] The Mavericks minus one and a half versus the Pelicans. [10:22] Break this one down for us, Lee. [10:24] It does. [10:24] But, you know, here's what's crazy. [10:26] Dallas at the fifth seed, and it's going to be tough for them to get up [10:29] and overtake Phoenix. [10:31] They want to stay at least in that fifth seed. [10:34] Got number six, Golden State tied with them. [10:36] Minnesota and the Clippers a half game back. [10:39] And then two games in back of those four teams that are five through eight, [10:43] nine through 13, only a half a game separate those teams. [10:48] And New Orleans is sitting at nine. [10:50] I think there's a chance to end up 12 or 13. [10:52] I just think that Oklahoma City coming on, Portland and Utah are coming on here. [10:58] So I think it's going to be really tough here for New Orleans to maintain that position here [11:04] and even get into the play-in tournament. [11:06] And I'm watching this Dallas team, and they are starting to come together. [11:12] You talk about weapons. [11:14] So there's teams that have two weapons, but this is a team that has three. [11:19] Just look at the game against Utah. [11:21] Kyrie Irving another big game He had 33 points six rebounds two assists and then Luca kind of an off game 29 points But they finally have a third option this year [11:35] And someone stepped forward. [11:37] Tim Hardaway Jr., that's right, from Miami. [11:39] Tim Hardaway Jr. is starting to play well in the last game, 24 points. [11:44] He shot 8 for 12 from the field, 7 for 9 from three-point land, [11:50] and they can score. [11:51] So if you look at the season averages, you're going, oh, well, you know, they've got a nice scoring team, [11:57] knocked down 37% of their threes, but they're going to continue to shoot well and shoot better as the season progresses. [12:06] So they have the 14th most points scored. [12:09] I think that might end up ninth or tenth here. [12:12] But then on the other side, New Orleans just keeps sacking. [12:16] They can't score. [12:17] So C.J. McCallum, he's doing his job averaging 21 points per game, shooting 43%, also 35% from three-point land. [12:27] But other than that, it's just not there. [12:31] This is a team that's bottom 12 right now in scoring. [12:34] I don't think they can keep up with Dallas, even though Dallas played last night. [12:38] With all those guys on offense shooting, I don't think they can defend them here. [12:43] We're going to go with a level two lock on Wednesday, Dallas Mavericks, [12:48] to cover the spread against the New Orleans Pelicans.”
106-113 — New Orleans beat Dallas 113-106; the Mavericks lost outright, so -1.5 fails (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [7:23] Hofstra minus 7.5 versus North Carolina Wilmington. [7:26] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:27] Yeah, and some really good nicknames here, Q. [7:30] The Hofstra Pride, like that, against the North Carolina Wilmington Seahawks. [7:37] So I think both of these are top 10, top 15 nicknames. [7:42] And Hofstra, top seed, number one seed in the CAA tournament here. [7:48] And facing a Wilmington team here that played really well in the second half. [7:54] They played Drexel, the Dragons, another great nickname. [7:59] Had a 12-point lead over the Seahawks, [8:02] and then in the final 12 and a half minutes of the game, [8:05] they shut down Drexel. [8:07] They finished the game 28-11. [8:10] They finished the day shooting 54.9%, [8:13] and I don't know if they can do that again. [8:17] They got some production off the bench from Nick Farrar, [8:20] had a game-high 19 points, matched his season best. [8:24] for the season. [8:26] And I don't know if they're going to get 19 from him again against a team [8:30] that actually is a better defense here than North Carolina Wilmington. [8:35] And that's how they like to do their work here. [8:39] Now, in the first game, these two teams played. [8:42] Well, what happened? [8:43] Hofstra won by 24 points, suffocating defense here. [8:48] Hofstra also 3-2 on neutral court sites here, [8:51] So they know how to play that type of game and those types of situations here. [8:56] 12-game winning streak here. [8:59] So this Pride team finished the season 26th in the nation here. [9:04] Field goal percentage 48 They knocked down 36 of their threes and they hit free throws Very important when you get to tournament games I look at guard leadership in the [9:16] conference tournaments and also [9:18] in March Madness. You got one or two guys [9:20] that can handle the ball and shoot [9:22] free throws. When they get fouled, [9:24] you're going to be a really tough team [9:26] to knock out here. And they finish [9:28] 20th nationwide [9:30] in opponent's field goal defense [9:33] here, holding opponents to [9:34] just so get that they shoot 48 percent hit 48 in the field goals hold opponents got 40.2 percent [9:42] and also um force a lot of misses on threes allowing just 30.7 percent here hidden gem here [9:49] early game six o'clock eastern here we're going with the pride the holster pride they're going to [9:56] get the nice easy win in advance to the championship game over the north carolina wilmington seahawks”
73-79 — UNC Wilmington beat Hofstra 79-73 in overtime in the CAA semifinal; Hofstra lost outright, so -7.5 fails (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [10:37] St. Mary's minus 6.5 minus 120, [10:39] with the take back for BYU being plus 6.5 minus 102. [10:42] Break this one down for us, Lee. [10:44] So we went with BYU on Friday, and they did us right, won by double digits. [10:50] And I don't know if I've ever had a season war, Q, [10:53] where I bet on a team one game and bet against them the next game [10:56] because I see something. [10:58] And this BYU team can beat a certain level team and beat them by double digits [11:04] and then turn around and play the two best teams in the conference. [11:08] And it's clearly been Gonzaga and St. Mary's the entire year, [11:12] and they just can't compete here. [11:14] So St. Mary's lost to Gonzaga in the regular season final here. [11:19] I think we're going to see a third game between these two teams here. [11:23] St. Mary's beat BYU twice this season here, [11:26] so they know how to get it done. [11:28] Some people say, well, it's tough to beat a team three times. [11:31] But like I said, this BYU team just can't get over the hump against good teams here. [11:37] And this is not the same BYU team we've seen many, many years here. [11:41] So St. Mary's finished the season as a co-West Conference champion. [11:46] As I mentioned, they split with the Gonzaga. [11:49] And I think these two teams are on a collision course here. [11:54] Logan Johnson, this guy does everything. [11:59] He averages almost 15 points a game, almost 47% of his field goals, [12:04] averages almost five rebounds and almost four assists per game here. [12:08] Got a freshman guard also, Aiden Mahoney. [12:12] He averages almost 15 points per game. [12:15] Got another senior guard that comes off the bench and plays a lot, Alex Dukas. [12:20] So I like this team a lot. [12:22] I think they do a little bit of everything. [12:24] If they need to score, they can outscore you. [12:25] If you need to defend, they can do that here. [12:27] So I'm going to lay the points here. [12:30] I think BYU, I think their season ends here. [12:33] So Gale's here. [12:35] They're going to win, I think, with shooting efficiency [12:38] and also stout defense number five in the country here. [12:43] St. Mary's laying the points here. [12:45] They win by double digits over BYU.”
76-69 — Saint Mary's beat BYU 76-69 in the WCC semifinal; margin of 7 covers -6.5 (ESPN).
“FanDuel line on this one The cavaliers minus six minus 112 versus boston with the take back being plus six minus 108 break this one down for [13:50] us lee so the first two times surprising a lot of people don't realize it when they played this [13:54] season early in the year cleveland won and even though boston has been sliding in fact uh this is [14:02] The team they lost on Sunday in overtime against New York, 131-129. [14:09] So I thought that was one of those taxing games. [14:11] In fact, it was double overtime. [14:13] Now they've got to travel on that back-to-back and go on the road, go to Cleveland. [14:17] So they've lost two in a row. [14:20] They lost to Brooklyn on Friday night. [14:22] They did beat Cleveland last Wednesday, but they didn't cover 117-113 [14:29] and lost before that to New York. [14:31] They haven't covered four out of five here. [14:34] They've lost three out of four here. [14:36] The line is telling you, if you look at the line, [14:40] the line opened up at two and a half, three, [14:42] that Boston's going to sit someone. [14:44] There's got to be some injuries here. [14:46] So sometimes when the line doesn't look right, you know what? [14:50] You've got to jump on it. [14:52] You would say to your mind, [14:53] how is Cleveland ever going to be that big of a favorite, [14:56] even at home, against maybe, in the public's eyes, [15:00] the best team in the NBA. [15:02] Don't try to figure it out too much. [15:04] Don't fall for the trap here. [15:06] So I still think that Boston is good. [15:09] I think they're going to recover here. [15:10] But right now, Darius Garland playing at a high level, Donovan Mitchell, [15:15] I mean, insane. [15:16] The reason they got rid of Kevin Love, he just lumbered up and down the court. [15:22] He didn't fit their style of play. [15:24] So they play up-tempo here. [15:26] They can shoot. [15:28] surprisingly they defend people don't realize uh that so um the team that uh you know just [15:36] i i think you know they're just just that close to being great so they're trying to find themselves [15:42] uh they're getting to know each other they're in the part in the season where they start to figure [15:47] it out here they're going to be up for this game they were at home saturday night they get to you [15:52] know to rest have that day of rest and be ready for this game so uh cleveland also one of the best [15:57] home teams in the NBA. [15:59] 27-7, 34 [16:01] games here that they [16:03] played at home, and they've also [16:05] covered 21-11 [16:07] and 2 in those games here. [16:10] I'm going with a level 2 lock [16:11] to start on Monday. Cleveland [16:13] covers and beats up on [16:15] Boston.”
118-114 — Cleveland beat Boston 118-114 in overtime; margin of 4 falls short of the -6 spread (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [4:13] BYU minus 7 versus Portland. [4:15] Break this one down for us, Lee. [4:16] Yeah, the Portland Pilots, that was where Eric Spolstra, coach of the Miami Heat, actually played college ball. [4:23] And a lot of people, two unknown facts about him. [4:27] Obviously he played at Portland but he was actually freshman of the year point guard when he was there in the conference and unfortunately was a few yards away from Hank Gathers [4:39] when he collapsed and died of a heart attack. [4:43] So just a couple unknown facts there. [4:47] But, boy, do I love conference tournaments as they start. [4:50] And the key to conference tournaments is understand, [4:53] and do a deep dive into when these two teams played earlier in the season. [4:59] And that's very important when you're looking at college games. [5:03] And this BYU team here has been disappointing. [5:08] They have not played especially well this year, [5:11] but they do a couple things well. [5:13] And the things that I like that they do well is they rebound. [5:18] So in their last game, their senior game, they won over USF over San Francisco. [5:25] They were plus 20 in rebounding margin. [5:30] They had 13 offensive rebounds. [5:32] Don't see that every single day. [5:34] So Portland can score some, but I think it's negated by the defense from BYU here. [5:42] And I think that, like I said, there's just something special there. [5:46] They get those extra also chances at the basket with all those rebounds here. [5:54] Another thing, like I said, is assist per turnover ratio. [6:00] They're 47th in the country. [6:02] And they also overall defense efficiency, they rank 38th in the country. [6:09] So even though this is not a great BYU team, there are some strengths here. [6:16] This Portland team in the first matchup, they held them to 58 points, [6:22] 37% shooting and just 28% from threes. [6:25] They pulled away in the second half. [6:27] And I see more of the same here. [6:29] I think this is going to be a repeat. [6:32] Teams have trouble shooting in venues they're not used to. [6:36] And the Orleans Arena is one of those. [6:38] It's a weird arena to shoot in. [6:39] I've been in there and watched some games there. [6:41] So I think the difference is going to be the defense and the offensive [6:44] and defensive rebound and get you extra chances here. [6:48] So we'll take BYU, hidden gem over the Portland Pilots here tonight [6:53] in college basketball tournament action.”
82-71 — BYU beat Portland 82-71 in the WCC Tournament second round, covering the -7 spread by 4 points (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [7:54] John Bones Jones minus 170 versus Gagne. [7:57] But, Lee, you're taking a different approach to this one. [7:59] Break it down for us. [8:00] Let us know what you're doing here. [8:01] I am. [8:02] And a lot of times when you have matchups where you think two high-level fighters [8:07] you're thinking the buildup, you know, it's going to be an incredible fight here. [8:12] But let's look at Mayweather, boxer. [8:17] Great name and always great buildup to his fights, and they were boring. [8:22] And the last couple John Jones fights have not been great, in my opinion. [8:27] I don't think he wants to get in there and bang with Cyril Gagne. [8:30] Cyril Gagne is actually the better striker, in my opinion. [8:34] So I think he wants to keep his distance. [8:36] He is really smart in the ring. [8:39] He uses hands and his feet especially well, but doesn't want to get in many tussles. [8:44] I think he's going to go for some takedowns here. [8:47] He's been off for three years. [8:49] The idea is to win. [8:51] It's not, you know, I know it looks great when a fighter, you know, the highlights when he knocks him out. [8:58] But I don see a knockout coming from Jon Jones Yeah if Gagne wins it probably going to be a knockout But I just think Jones is a smart fighter here Still I think might be in his prime at 35 [9:11] Believe it or not, has not taken a whole lot of damage. [9:13] So I think he's going to stay the distance when they're striking [9:17] and go for a couple takedowns here. [9:19] He just wants to win. [9:20] That's going to be the way it happens here. [9:23] I'm going to go with Jon Jones here. [9:25] May not be the fight everyone's expecting, [9:27] but I'm going to take them plus 200 to win by decision here.”
Jones def. Gane by submission, round 1 — Jon Jones defeated Ciryl Gane by first-round submission (guillotine choke) at UFC 285, not by decision; the decision prop loses.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [12:25] The Knicks minus one versus Miami. [12:27] Break this one down for us, Lee. [12:29] Yeah, so the Knicks beat the Heat the last time that they played. [12:32] And watch the game closely. [12:35] It was almost a month ago, February 2nd. [12:39] They won 106-104. [12:41] They were the better team. [12:42] I mean, Miami had some chances here. [12:45] And the line is now minus one. [12:47] I believe if you see this line go up, you start seeing it tick up, [12:51] which I think there's a good chance of, well, [12:53] Jimmy Butler's probably not going to play in this game. [12:55] So I like it at one, so get it in now. [13:00] And if it starts going up, you've got a great bet. [13:03] It's probably telling you Jimmy Butler's not playing. [13:06] He's just not the same without him. [13:07] I mean, he's got some miles on him. [13:11] You know, he might be 33 years old, but he's played a lot of minutes. [13:17] He's in Chicago playing the most minutes right up there with LeBron James. [13:22] As you mentioned, Knicks have won seven straight games and a different team this year. [13:28] Why? [13:30] Because they finally found a point guard here So Joe Brunson the guy just a winner I mean you look at Dallas and they almost blew a huge lead over a 20 lead yesterday With Brunson in there they [13:44] just not going to blow these leads. This guy knows how to handle the ball, knows how to distribute it, [13:49] knows when to shoot. Then the Miami Heat. Miami Heat is not the same team. They just can't knock [13:55] down threes. That was the way that they used to roll. They're 28th, not ace, 28th in three-point [14:03] shooting. Duncan Robinson used to be their guy. He doesn't usually even see the court yet. He might [14:08] see it tonight because Jimmy Butler may not play, but he's not even the rotation. They're paying [14:14] this guy over $15 million a year. Their offensive rating, adjusted offensive rating, 26 in the NBA [14:23] here. So when you're knocking down only [14:25] 33.2% of [14:27] your shots, you look old. [14:29] You added Kevin Love, who actually might be [14:31] a nice addition, but [14:33] they just lumber up and down [14:35] the court here. Julius Randle having a great [14:37] season. Now, in the playoffs, [14:39] he may not be great, but [14:41] he's scoring 25 points a game on [14:43] over 46% shooting. [14:46] I like the way this team looks [14:47] here. I think they've got the killer mentality [14:50] here. So we're going to go [14:51] with a New York Knicks here.”
NYK 122, MIA 120 — Knicks beat the Heat 122-120, covering the -1 spread by 1 point (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [3:40] Youngstown Penguins minus eight, minus 118 versus Mercy. [3:44] Take back is plus eight, minus 104. [3:47] Break this one down for us, Lee. [3:48] All right. [3:48] So the Titans haven't had such a great season this year, 14-18, 9-11 conference play. [3:56] They had to win a playoff in-game here on Tuesday against, get this, the Purdue-Fort Wayne, [4:04] I love you know nickname, the Mastodons. [4:07] So they beat the Mastodons 81-68, and boy, did they look good. [4:13] I think they're getting hot at the right time here. [4:15] They had a, like I said, in that win, they were red hot. [4:20] They came back in the second half, scored 47 points here. [4:25] Talk about a guy that's red hot, and Antoine Davis. [4:29] He led a team, he did play 38 minutes, and he averaged a point a minute. [4:34] 38 points 8 rebounds 8 assists 4 steals 5 turnovers even sold popcorn at halftime and probably even got everyone some ice cream [4:44] He was that all over the place. [4:46] So I love to back players that are red hot. [4:49] In the first two games, Youngstown State did win the game. [4:54] They're the number one seed here. [4:55] So I think that they're looking ahead. [4:58] They are strong. [4:59] But what does Detroit Mercy do? [5:02] They can score. [5:03] And when you can score, you can stay in games, especially conference tournaments. [5:09] So I just think that they're way underrated, 60th in the nation out of over 350 teams. [5:16] They averaged 76.9 points per game. [5:20] They also were hitting almost 44% of their shots, but over the last couple games, [5:26] been red hot here. [5:28] Yeah, defensively, they haven't been great here, but they're getting some blocks [5:32] Last couple games, getting a bunch of steals, double digits. [5:36] Last couple games here, 13 turnovers. [5:39] In fact, they forced in the last game. [5:41] We're going to save with a hidden gem to start. [5:44] Number eight, Detroit Mercy versus number one, Youngstown State. [5:48] Hidden gem. [5:49] They keep it close. [5:50] They might even pull the shocker of the tournament tonight.”
71-66 — Youngstown State beat Detroit Mercy 71-66 in the Horizon League quarterfinal; Detroit Mercy ML loses (ESPN box score).
“how about washington state [7:15] versus washington washington state comes in at 15 and 15 washington 16 and 14 fanduel.com line on [7:22] this one washington state minus one and a half minus 104 with the take back being plus one and [7:27] a half minus 118 for Washington. Break this one down for us. Yeah, two teams sitting right in the [7:34] middle as far as the record lines close. But you're saying, why is Washington State a one and a half [7:40] point favorite when they're playing at Washington when Washington actually has a little bit better [7:44] record? Well, let's look at the resume of both teams. Washington State had a bunch of close [7:49] losses this year. In fact, really close losses to highly respected UCLA and Arizona, two top 10 [7:57] teams. They also had some close losses to some teams middle of the road, Utah and Colorado. [8:04] But what we've noticed here is this is a team that's really strong on the glass. They rebound [8:11] well and they shoot a ton of three-pointers here. They have attempted more three-pointers than anyone [8:17] in the Pac-12 and they're second in efficiency from behind the three-point line. So I expect them [8:24] to be ready for this game here. [8:26] They won at Arizona in January. [8:29] They've also beaten Oregon, Arizona State, and USC. [8:33] And just think that they just have – what they do is they have a big here. [8:38] Muhammad Goyi, this guy is really good. [8:40] And when you surround him with three guys that shoot better than 39% [8:45] on three-pointers, you've got a chance. [8:48] I think they can do something in the tournament too. [8:50] So I think that this is going to be a nice, easy win here on the road here. [8:55] We're going to go with a blowout special in the Pac-12, [8:59] Washington State Cougars over the Washington Huskies tonight.”
93-84 — Washington State beat Washington 93-84, covering the -1.5 spread by 7.5 points (ESPN box score).
“The Kraken roll in, 33 wins, 21 losses, and 6 overtime losses. [9:36] Detroit comes in at 28 wins, 24 losses, and 8 OT losses. [9:40] FanDuel.com line on this one. [9:43] The Kraken minus 122 versus Detroit with the take back being plus 102. [9:47] Break this one down for us, Lee. [9:48] So I have been back in Seattle early and often in the first half, [9:53] but let me tell you something. [9:55] I think it's over. [9:56] I think they've run its course here. [9:58] So now, you know, as we talked about, [10:03] you've got to reassess things at the all-star break. [10:06] And the Seattle Kraken, who are one of my favorites early in the season, [10:09] have been falling off of a cliff. [10:12] And I think potentially they could end up not making the playoffs here in the West, [10:16] which is crazy. [10:17] I think they were sitting in second place for most of the first half of the regular season. [10:24] So it's important to understand that a team shooting percentage [10:27] and a team save percentage often regress to the mean throughout the season, [10:32] especially when their play on the rest of the ice looks very different. [10:37] So when a team has a really high shooting percentage and high save percentage early in the season, but they have obvious flaws in their roster, that is a team to fade in the second half. [10:48] Seattle's one of those teams. [10:50] The roster is extremely young and inexperienced and probably not talented enough to be in the position they've been all season. [10:57] How are they winning so many games then? [10:59] Well, in the first half of the season, they rank first in shooting percentage. [11:03] That's right. [11:04] First. [11:05] We're talking about teams like Boston and Edmonton that have big-time talent up front. [11:11] Seattle was first, and they were top 20 in save percentage. [11:15] Since the All-Star break, they ranked 20th in shooting percentage and 26th in save percentage. [11:23] That is why they're just 4-7 in February, and they're limping into this one. [11:28] I don't think Detroit is a team to overlook either. [11:30] The Red Wings, 7-4 since the break. [11:33] They just locked up Dylan Larkin to an eight-year contract extension on Wednesday, [11:38] so they know that he's going to be sticking around. [11:41] And they've actually got a bit of a revenge angle here after Seattle [11:45] snapped their five-game winning streak just the other night. [11:48] The wrong team is favored here. [11:51] Detroit should take this one as Seattle continues to struggle here. [11:56] Detroit Red Wings, money line, plus 102 here over the Kraken as they crack.”
SEA 5, DET 4 — Kraken beat the Red Wings 5-4 in overtime; Detroit Red Wings ML loses (ESPN box score).
“Again, the FanDuel.com line on this one. [12:56] The D.C. Defenders minus two versus Battle Hawks. [12:59] Break this one down for us, Lee. [13:00] Yep, two undefeated teams, and both these teams, I told everyone, [13:04] these were two teams before the season to look out for, [13:07] thought that they were going to be sleepers, [13:09] and probably two of the best three teams in the league. [13:12] Right now, Battlehawks are looking to try to go 3-0 on Sunday [13:16] against the Defenders as a road dog again here. [13:20] So that is something that looks similar to last week, [13:23] but I think they're playing a different team and a different venue [13:27] and a different type style of game. [13:29] So they do have A.J. McCarron. [13:31] He's looked okay. [13:32] You know, he bounced around the NFL for a little bit. [13:37] But the problem here is he's got to go against the D.C. defenders defense. [13:42] D.C. does two things really well. [13:44] They run the football. [13:45] Jordan Tamu, he runs. [13:47] Not a great passer, but makes things happen with his feet. [13:51] And then they bring in De King from the University of Miami and before that Houston and they run the Wildcat And boy can they run Abram Smith [14:01] You know, they ran for 229 yards combined in that game last week and also two touchdowns. [14:07] So I think that they're going to be ready and their defense, the best in the XFL. [14:13] So they held Vegas here to 3.8 yards per play. [14:18] They fact Hundley twice in that game. [14:21] So I think that the defenders here, led by maybe the best defensive coach in the XFL, is going to continue to play this way. [14:31] And you talk about a hot ticket. [14:34] There's one place in the XFL with a hot ticket, big time. [14:37] It's D.C. [14:38] What do they do? [14:39] They have what's called the beer snake. [14:42] Once people finish drinking their beers in the end zone, they hand them over and they form. [14:47] They line all these cups up, and they take them from the bottom, [14:51] the first row in the end zone, and they try to go all the way to the top. [14:56] And they've done it a few times. [14:57] Well, in the first game they played, opening week of the XFL, [15:00] security took their beer snake away, and they started throwing lemons onto the field. [15:06] This is the cheapest ticket in the end zone going for over $100. [15:10] You want to be at this game here with the best running game, in my opinion, [15:14] in the XFL, the best defense with Greg Williams manning it here. [15:19] They get it done. [15:20] Lay the small spot. [15:21] D.C. defenders all the way up on Thursday. [15:24] We're going up again for a second straight day in a row. [15:27] D.C. defenders over the Seattle Battle Hawks. [15:31] Level three lock.”
34-28 — D.C. Defenders beat the St. Louis Battlehawks 34-28 on March 5, 2023, covering the -2 spread by 4 points.
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [3:13] Pittsburgh, minus 3.5, minus 115 versus Notre Dame [3:16] with the take back being plus 3.5, minus 105. [3:19] Break this one down for us, Lee. [3:21] So no one thought number 25th-ranked Pittsburgh was going to be fighting, [3:27] in my opinion, for not only an NCAA berth, [3:30] but right now they are sitting atop. [3:33] That's right. [3:34] They are sitting atop the ACC. [3:36] Everyone thinks of Duke. [3:38] You think of North Carolina, the Blue Bloods. [3:41] You think of teams, you know, who have dominated in the past [3:45] and done real well in the ACC, Florida State. [3:49] But Pittsburgh right now, 14-4, a half game up on Miami and a game up on Virginia. [3:56] They have two games left. [3:57] So what do they have to do to win? [4:00] They've got to win out. [4:01] So if they win tonight and they win at Miami on Saturday, [4:06] they are going to be ACC championship team, and that means a lot. [4:11] Here's the problem. [4:13] I think they going to be looking ahead to Miami on Saturday and whoever wins that game is going to win it And I think they might be looking ahead So Notre Dame has not had a good season at all [4:24] 10-19, 9-20 against the spread. [4:28] In fact, they're only 2-16 in the ACC, but they have done okay at home. [4:35] They're 10-9. [4:37] Mike Bray, one of the good coaches out there, [4:39] There's a bunch of coaches who are not going to continue on, get fired, [4:43] or they're retiring. [4:44] Mike Bray, very well thought of here, unlike Jim Boeheim, [4:48] who's taking shots at other programs. [4:51] He's doing it the right way. [4:52] I think they're going to send them off in fashion. [4:55] They have had trouble getting to the boards. [4:57] They have not dominated on the boards, and that's where Pittsburgh's been good. [5:01] But it's all about effort, [5:04] and I think they're going to show that effort tonight here. [5:06] So, like I said, they won all 10 of their games at home. [5:11] They can score 75.8 points per game, even playing slow tempo. [5:17] They shoot 45% from the four, almost 36% from behind the arc here. [5:23] They just need to get to the free throw line. [5:26] Get to the free throw line 17.9 times per contest and a lot more at home here. [5:32] And they usually hit over 77% of their free throws. [5:35] if they're having problems it's rebounding [5:38] and I think they're going to show that effort [5:40] it's senior night that means [5:42] a lot normally and with Mike [5:44] Bray his last home game [5:45] I think they're going to send him out in fine fashion [5:48] don't fall for the trap here [5:50] this line was like 5-5 [5:52] and a half overnight it's down to [5:54] 3 and a half I'm going with [5:56] Notre Dame here wrong [5:58] team favored as a upset”
88-81 — Notre Dame beat Pittsburgh 88-81 outright, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:49] K-State minus 6.5, minus 120 versus Oklahoma with the take-back. [6:52] Plus 6.5, minus 102. [6:55] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:56] Yeah, Oklahoma's sitting 14-15 right now. [7:00] They beat Iowa State on Saturday. [7:02] He was talking about the Big 12. [7:05] One time, Joe Lenardi was talking about every team, I think he said, [7:08] should be in the Big 12 in the March Madness tournament. [7:13] Has he been watching the last three or four weeks? [7:16] I mean, they have fallen apart the bottom half here. [7:19] So Oklahoma did win at Iowa State here, and they did beat Kansas State. [7:24] Kansas State's one of these teams, plays much, much better at home. [7:28] Only one loss at home. [7:29] That was to Texas, a three-point game here. [7:32] I think that they're ready for this game here. [7:35] They've been pointing towards this game here. [7:37] And that's 79-65 win the Sooners had February 14th. [7:41] They shot 51% overall. [7:43] They shot 11 for 23 from three-point range here. [7:48] Kansas State in that game shot 20%. [7:51] That's right, 20%, four for 20 from three-point land here. [7:56] So I think that people remember Oklahoma having that shocking win [8:01] against Alabama. [8:01] think too much of this team. [8:04] So I think Kansas State will be ready for this game. [8:07] I think Kansas State, as far as home court advantage, [8:10] maybe top three, top four in the country right now. [8:15] So they beat the Pokes on Saturday. [8:19] Looked good doing that. [8:21] They were hitting the boards, had a three rebounding margin, [8:24] plus three in that game here. [8:27] They overcame a two-point halftime deficit [8:28] and scored 40 points in that game held Oklahoma State at home to 41 shooting and 5 for 23 from three range here So Kansas State like I said this is a great situational play here You get revenge [8:44] You get senior night here. And I just think that Oklahoma, they might have shot all their [8:51] bullets on Saturday here. I think it's going to be effort here. It's going to be the crowd here. [8:57] It's going to be talent here. [8:59] I'm laying the points here. [9:01] Blowout special. [9:03] Take Jerome Tang here. [9:04] Senior night. [9:05] He's going to lead his troops to a big-time win over Oklahoma.”
85-69 — Kansas State beat Oklahoma 85-69, covering the -6.5 spread by 9.5 points (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [11:11] The 76ers minus 1.5, minus 110 versus Miami. [11:14] Break this one down for us, Lee. [11:16] Here's what's crazy. There's 20 games left in the NBA for the Miami Heat on their schedule. [11:22] And they had not played Philadelphia once until two nights ago. [11:26] So they're going to match up now. They played in Philadelphia two nights ago. [11:31] And the Heat won 101-99. It was all about effort. [11:36] Miami's backed against the wall since the All-Star break. [11:38] Had lost both games. Had not looked well. Had not played hard. [11:42] I think the 76ers were kind of caught in one of those situations [11:48] where they thought they could just show up and roll the ball out [11:51] and look good here, but did not happen here. [11:55] On offense, they usually do really well. [11:59] They average almost 114 points a game, shoot 48% from the field. [12:04] Joel Embiid usually has huge games against the Heat. [12:08] He played okay. [12:09] There was no effort there. [12:11] You could just see they were just going through the motions here. [12:14] So I think they're going to come to play in this game. [12:17] What's the difference with the Heat this year? [12:19] Why aren't they the same team? [12:21] I think it's one guy, Tyler Hero. [12:24] He got paid. [12:25] I think like four years, $110 million. [12:28] He moved about a mile and a half, two miles from me, [12:31] and this guy is buying cars. [12:34] This guy thinks he's made it. [12:36] Miami's had a bunch of these guys. [12:37] They paid them, and they just all of a sudden tank. [12:41] He was the sixth player of the year, voted that award last year, and deservedly so. [12:47] He was a scoring machine this year I don know if he be the eighth best player on any team right now So lately he has not looked well shooting three plays no defense at all here [13:02] So Miami's got a problem with a backcourt point guard, really only have one point guard [13:07] on the roster right now, waiting for Kyle Lowry to come back here. [13:11] I don't know if he's going to be much. [13:12] He's out for this game here. [13:13] So this Milwaukee defense rated fourth in the NBA in defense. [13:18] I think they're going to come to play here. [13:20] Miami feels good about finally getting a win after the All-Star break. [13:24] So I'm going to lay the one and a half on the road. [13:27] This line should be four or five in my opinion here. [13:31] Level three lock on Wednesday. [13:35] Philadelphia 76ers over my Miami Heat.”
PHI 119, MIA 96 — 76ers beat the Heat 119-96, covering the -1.5 spread by 21.5 points (ESPN box score).
“How about 12th ranked Tennessee going up against Arkansas? [3:23] Tennessee comes in 21-8, Arkansas 19-10. [3:27] FanDuel.com line on this one. [3:29] Tennessee minus 6.5, minus 106, with the take back being plus 6.5, minus 114 for Arkansas. [3:35] Break this one down for us, Lee. [3:37] Yeah, here's what's crazy. [3:38] These teams have actually not played this season. [3:40] They played last year. [3:42] The two teams split but Arkansas covered both games And every time they play it just seems to me that Tennessee has trouble with Arkansas defense Arkansas they apply so much pressure on defense and they really make things tough for you [3:57] I mean they're havoc they're all over the place here Arkansas I believe that they're in they're [4:03] probably now something like an eight or a nine seed they have a couple bad losses including at [4:09] LSU, which is considered a quad three loss. [4:13] But, I mean, they had Alabama. [4:15] They played Alabama tough loss by three on the road. [4:18] When you watch them, they just pass the eye test here. [4:21] So the problem is they just don't shoot free throws well. [4:25] And their loss to Alabama lost by three. [4:29] They shot just 20 for 29 from the free throw line, 69%. [4:33] Nick Smith had a good game with 24 points. [4:37] Devontae Davis also added 21 points here. [4:41] They can score. [4:42] I mean, it's a team that averages over 75 points per game. [4:46] They can fill it up here. [4:48] Tennessee, some people think, oh, okay, they're back on track now. [4:52] They beat South Carolina by almost 40. [4:55] South Carolina is not a player. [4:56] I mean, they were a 22-and-a-half-point favorite in that game. [5:00] But before that, they had lost on the road to Texas A&M. [5:04] They had lost by 12 to Kentucky. [5:06] In fact, they lost four or five games here. [5:09] So you watch a team just can't score. [5:12] I mean, this is a team averaging just 71 points per game for the season. [5:18] So I think this is going to be an up-tempo game here. [5:21] And like I said, I'm watching Arkansas the last couple weeks, [5:24] and they are impressive here. [5:26] They have more incentive. [5:27] They'd like to move up and get maybe a six or a five seed here [5:31] if they can get on the roll here. [5:33] They've covered three straight here. [5:35] I think they'll cover this road game here. [5:38] Wrong team favorite. [5:40] I think this game goes right down to the wire. [5:42] We'll take Arkansas plus all those gorgeous points at Tennessee.”
75-57 — Tennessee beat Arkansas 75-57; Arkansas +6.5 loses outright by 18 (ESPN box score).
“How about this? [6:30] How about Matias Gamer Gamrot? [6:32] That's right. [6:32] The Gamer Gamrot going up against Jalen, the Tarantula Turner. [6:36] How about Gamer comes in at 21-2, Tarantula Turner 13-5. [6:41] FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:43] Matias Gamer Gamrot minus 205 versus Jalen, the Tarantula Turner. [6:48] Early action, Lee, break it down for us. [6:50] All right, so what happens with the UFC, just like everything else, [6:53] like, for instance, in the NFL, you have games once a week, [6:56] you have fights pretty much once a week. [6:58] in the UFC. People, if they feel they've got an edge, they bet it really early. We're talking [7:03] about when the lines come out, and that was probably about a week and a half, two weeks ago. [7:07] Then they sit stale. No one really bets into them. And then probably 24 hours before the fights, [7:12] people who are wagering, which is the general public, they'll start looking at the fights and [7:18] start betting it here. So I think we want to get ahead of a move here. So I think the gamer here, [7:24] I think he has a huge edge. [7:26] Here's a guy, he did lose his last fight. [7:29] He fought Benny L Darius but Benny L Darius is an awkward guy He a southpaw and he had not fought a southpaw probably the last 15 20 fights And just one of those fights just didn go his way He lost unanimous decision [7:44] I think he's better than that. [7:45] I think he's going to come on. [7:47] Here's a guy you watch. [7:48] Everyone talks about where do the good fighters come from? [7:51] Brazil, come from Russia, the United States. [7:54] This guy comes from Poland. [7:56] No one's really been following this guy. [7:58] He's got it all. [7:59] So he's really good on his feet, has great submissions. [8:04] He does everything. [8:05] He kicks. [8:06] So he's won by submission. [8:08] He's won by ground and pound, [8:11] Kimura choke. [8:13] He's had rear naked choke, [8:16] a key lock. [8:17] Not a lot of people know what that is. [8:19] A heel hook. [8:21] I just love watching him. [8:22] He is one of the most proficient fighters [8:24] and he's fighting Jalen Turner. [8:26] Jalen Turner just doesn't have a good win, [8:29] I think, in my opinion, [8:30] on his resume. [8:31] I think they're trying to have him step up. [8:33] He's only a couple spots behind Gamrot. [8:36] These guys are seventh and ninth as far as their ranking in their weight division. [8:40] But last two wins against Brad, Wydell High, and Jamie Malarkey, I'm not impressed here. [8:48] Line's sitting at 205. [8:49] I think it's going to end up close to minus 300. [8:52] I think it should be minus 400. [8:54] I think here's a guy you can bet now, feel confident about, or put him in a couple parlays [8:59] and feel company is going to take control and win [9:01] and put them with some other fights, [9:03] and you can have a huge UFC card here on Saturday night. [9:07] Everyone's waiting. [9:08] They want to see the John Jones fight against Cyril Gagne, [9:12] but this fight on the main card here is the fight that I think is the biggest advantage. [9:17] So we're going to go with Matthias Gamer Gamrod here [9:21] over the Tarantula Blowout Special.”
Gamrot def. Turner by split decision — Mateusz Gamrot defeated Jalin Turner by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27) at UFC 285; Gamrot ML wins.
“the Grizzlies and the L.A. Lakers. [10:15] The Grizzlies, 36-23. [10:16] The Lake Show, 29-32. [10:19] But as we know, no LeBron James. [10:21] He is out. [10:22] FanDuel.com line on this one. [10:23] The Grizzlies, minus 8.5 versus the Lakers. [10:26] Break this one down for us, Lee. [10:28] Yeah, so if you just saw the line, you're like, oh, the Lakers, we can get a nice line here. [10:33] Came back and beat Dallas. [10:35] Dallas, I mean, Dallas Mavericks will always beat the Dallas Mavericks. [10:39] They find ways to choke him. [10:40] In fact, they blew the biggest lead of the season, a 29-point lead. [10:46] So that's what they do best here. [10:48] Lakers did play some good defense in the second half. [10:51] But, you know, you watch two games over the weekend where teams blue lead the University of Miami, 25-point lead in college, and the Dallas Mavericks did it in the NBA. [11:02] So in that game, LeBron James was lost. [11:04] He was injured. [11:05] He's not going to be back, it looks like, for multiple weeks. [11:08] They're sitting in 12th place, 13-and-a-half games behind first-place Denver Nuggets. [11:14] I think they're going to end up in 13th place. [11:16] Yeah, that's right. [11:16] Even Oklahoma City is going to end up passing them in a few days here. [11:20] They shot 48 from the floor here but they just don match up against this Memphis team This Memphis team is young They get out on the break They going to get easy scores here I think Memphis is a team to watch [11:34] They had the last couple weeks. [11:35] They've been back and forth. [11:37] Now they'll start turning it on here. [11:38] They're five and a half back from Denver. [11:40] I don't know if they catch Denver, but I think they're going to end up probably with a two, [11:44] three seed, and I think that suits them well here. [11:47] People don't realize, look at all the defensive metrics. [11:51] Everyone talks about Memphis' offense. [11:54] Top four, first, second, third, or fourth in almost every single metric here. [11:59] So I think that they're going to be able to just shut down the Lakers here. [12:05] So they're forcing opponents to shoot just 35.6% from the arc here, [12:10] and that's the only way I think the Lakers are going to be able to get back in this game here. [12:15] So when you can't score enough points in the NBA and you can't without LeBron, [12:19] they've proven it over and over. [12:21] You're in trouble here. [12:22] We're going to go with a level two lock here on a Tuesday. [12:26] Memphis Grizzlies, they win this game easy over the L.A. Fakers.”
MEM 121, LAL 109 — Grizzlies beat the Lakers 121-109, covering the -8.5 spread by 3.5 points (ESPN box score).
“How about Weber State going [4:32] up against Northern Arizona? Weber State comes in 16 and 14. Northern Arizona, not so much. Nine [4:39] and 21. FanDuel.com [4:41] line on this one. Weaver State minus one and a half, [4:43] minus 104 for his north in Arizona. [4:45] Break this one down for us, Lee. Alright, so [4:47] probably my favorite name conference, [4:49] the Big Sky Conference [4:51] matchup here, and [4:53] maybe the best name [4:55] arena [4:56] in the conference. [4:59] It's the Jay Lawrence [5:01] Walk-Up Sky Dome. Love that. [5:03] So I think that's a [5:05] great name. And these [5:07] two teams consistently [5:09] Certainly, over the years have been teams that are at least 500 or better, [5:14] have been able to get into the tournament numerous times here. [5:18] Weber State, they've got some guys that can shoot. [5:22] Northern Colorado used to be one of those teams that used to get in every four or five years. [5:28] But now, hard times here in northern Arizona. [5:32] A team that's allowing 73.8 points per game, which is 289th in the nation, [5:38] has not played much of a schedule at all. [5:40] So the team that just can't stop anyone. [5:45] As we know, college basketball is becoming a scoring conference. [5:48] You don't see these 45, 43 games much anymore at all. [5:53] They do. [5:54] It's a total outlier here. [5:56] So they're leading assist guy. [5:59] Carson Tout, just 3.2 assists per game here. [6:04] They only averaged 34 rebounds per game here. [6:08] Our leading rebounder is also the guy who leads them as far as rebounds here, [6:14] 7.7 rebounds per game. [6:17] That's Tout here. [6:18] So they don't even have anyone that's averaging a steal per game. [6:22] This is a team that just doesn't have many dimensions here. [6:25] Weber State defeated Northern Arizona in the first meeting. [6:29] 76-60 wasn't even close. [6:32] They covered as easily as a seven-point favorite here. [6:35] Pretty strong defense, only allowing 67 points per game. [6:40] Top 100 here. [6:42] Their offense, different type of offense. [6:45] They use a lot of screening here. [6:47] They like to shoot the long ball and do it pretty well here. [6:51] So I just think that they match up really well here with a northern Arizona team [6:56] that just allows teams to shoot from the three-point line way, way too high here. [7:01] Almost 40%. [7:03] Let's go with Weber State minus the small spot. [7:07] One and a half minus 104 here. [7:10] Hidden gem.”
90-89 — Weber State beat Northern Arizona 90-89 in overtime, winning by only 1; Weber State -1.5 does not cover (ESPN box score).
“the Boston Celtics, [7:39] going up against another hot team in the NBA, the New York Knicks. [7:42] The Celtics 44-17. [7:44] The Knicks 35-27. [7:46] Think about this. [7:47] Boston, seven out of the last eight dubs. [7:49] Knicks won five in a row. [7:51] When I say they're hot, they are hot. [7:53] FanDuel.com line on this one. [7:54] The Celtics minus two versus the Knicks. [7:56] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:58] All right. [7:59] Boston, seven of the last eight they've won. [8:02] Only lost by four at Milwaukee. [8:05] And that was a game they had no Jason Tatum and no Jalen Brown. [8:10] Knicks five in a row, but you look at the five wins really against nobody's teams [8:16] that really have no chance to advance much in the playoffs here. [8:19] The overnight line was minus five for Boston. [8:23] Now it's minus two. [8:24] no Jalen Brown for this game but I don think it makes a difference This Boston team is deep They go like 10 deep here They have the six lowest adjusted defense here Third most points scored [8:36] on offense, hitting also in a close game. That's important. Free throws, 82.5% from the free throw [8:44] line here. The Knicks, just methodical. I think they slow the game down too much here against top [8:50] teams, 24th highest shooting percentage. [8:54] I just think that Boston, one of these teams that is just built to, you know, [8:59] play almost anyone matches up well here with the Knicks. [9:02] And whenever you think things are going great, [9:05] they're not like one of these other teams that can run off 10 or 12 straight. [9:08] They usually fall flat on their face here. [9:10] Blow out special. [9:12] Boston Celtics minus the two points over the New York Knicks here tonight [9:17] in New York City at Madison Square Garden.”
NYK 109, BOS 94 — Knicks beat the Celtics 109-94; Boston Celtics -2 loses outright (ESPN box score).
“college hoop action, North Carolina and Florida State. North Carolina [11:25] is 18-11. Florida State is 9-20. [11:29] FanDuel.com line on this one. North Carolina minus 7.5 minus [11:33] 118 with the take back being plus 7.5 minus 104 for Florida State. [11:37] Break this one down for us. All right, so North Carolina, which a lot of people [11:41] don't remember this, was actually the preseason number one team in the [11:45] country have not played like it until Saturday. [11:50] Boy, did they look good against Virginia. [11:52] I think people were saying when they watched that game, like, [11:55] where has this been all year? [11:57] But nice finally after a really rough stretch, back-to-back wins, [12:01] easy wins over Notre Dame, and then Virginia at home. [12:06] So this is a team that's finally riding high, and they need to be there. [12:10] Most people think on the outside looking then, [12:12] or maybe one of the last two teams. [12:14] So this is a must-win game. [12:17] Florida State, horrible season. [12:19] I mean, an absolute disaster. [12:21] They were able to maybe salvage their season against big-time rival Miami. [12:26] They were down 25 points. [12:29] That's right, 25 points. [12:31] They came back and won the game. [12:32] They were leading most of the last couple minutes. [12:35] Miami ends up hitting a big three with 4.7 seconds to go. [12:39] They come down the court and they hit a three at the buzzer to win it They are riding an emotional high right now but I think they going to have trouble here against North Carolina [12:50] I think that ride home on the plane the last couple days, [12:54] everyone's patting them on the back, [12:56] but there's a team that I think they're going to have their way here. [13:02] Number 18, North Carolina in turnover rate. [13:05] Don't turn the ball over much here. [13:06] Florida State has been an absolute disaster defensively, [13:11] ranked 295th in effective field goal defensive percentage here. [13:17] Armando Baycott here leads North Carolina, [13:20] scoring over 17 points and almost 11 rebounds a game. [13:24] I think he'll dominate the boards here. [13:27] This Florida State team, just a team, [13:29] just guys playing out the edge here and finishing up the season. [13:34] and they just don't have – I just think they caught Miami just to relax at halftime here. [13:39] Thought they had it. [13:40] Miami was also without their leading outside shooter [13:43] and just couldn't get it back. [13:44] Happens sometimes. [13:45] So I think North Carolina backs against the wall. [13:49] Must win situation here. [13:50] They take the lead here early. [13:53] Stretch it out. [13:54] Win by double digits here. [13:56] Level one lock to start the week. [13:58] North Carolina minus 7.5, minus 118 over Florida State on Monday”
77-66 — North Carolina beat Florida State 77-66, covering the -7.5 spread by 3.5 points (ESPN box score).
“How about the Milwaukee Bucks, one of the best in the East, [3:42] going up against the Miami Heat, which are obviously going to threaten as well [3:45] as one of the best in the East. [3:47] Milwaukee comes in 41-17, Miami 32-27. [3:50] FanDuel.com line on this one. [3:52] The Bucs minus one and a half versus Miami. [3:55] Break this one down for us, Lee. [3:56] So a lot of moving parts in this game, [3:58] and a lot has changed here in the last week. [4:00] So you have Milwaukee, [4:03] and it looks like they're going to be without Greek Freak here in this game [4:06] for at least another game or two. [4:08] And you're saying, oh, they got a lot of depth, and they do. [4:11] Here's the problem, though. [4:13] Milwaukee has not fared well against Miami this year In fact they lost two of the three games The only game Miami lost they had their entire starting lineup but everyone off the bench was a guy that doesn normally play [4:24] They were bringing up guys from the G League, [4:27] guys that usually play in blowouts, [4:30] and those are the three guys they had to bring in. [4:34] I think they only had eight or nine guys available [4:36] for the last game that they lost. [4:38] So they always seem to match up well. [4:41] Love Eric Spolstra. [4:42] Think he's one of the better coaches. [4:43] And I think the theme coming out of the break is the Miami Heat probably did as well as anyone making additions. [4:52] They had Kevin Love, and Kevin Love I think fits in perfectly. [4:56] He can hit those threes from the corner at a very high level. [5:00] He's not worn out. [5:01] Here's a guy that was sitting the last couple weeks. [5:03] Just didn't think he fit in well with what Cleveland was trying to do. [5:07] He's a good spacer, good rebounder. [5:10] and from the free throw line, just like most of the other Heat players, [5:15] 88.9% from the free throw line in his career. [5:19] Also picked up Cody Zeller. [5:21] They really had no backup center. [5:23] So I think that they're fortified here. [5:26] I think this Milwaukee team probably also improved a little bit with Jai Crowder, [5:31] but I think it's going to take him a little while. [5:33] He has not played all season. [5:35] So just think that this Miami team thinks that maybe they can win a round or two [5:39] now in the playoffs where there was no hope. [5:41] They were playing a power forward who only went 6-5. [5:46] So now they have the height. [5:48] Now they have the depth here. [5:50] And I just think that Miami's going to be fired up coming out of the break [5:53] knowing they were a different team here. [5:56] They were 2-8 against the spread the last 10 games. [5:59] I expect Miami, they should go something like 7-3 over the next 10 [6:03] against the spread here. [6:05] Wrong team favored. [6:07] Miami Heat pulls the upset in Milwaukee tonight.”
MIL 128, MIA 99 — Bucks routed the Heat 128-99; Miami Heat ML loses outright (ESPN box score).
“How about Charles Energy Johnson going up against Odie, the Jamaican sensation, Osborne. [6:49] Energy Johnson, 13-3. [6:51] The Jamaican sensation comes in at 11-5. [6:54] FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:56] Charles Energy Johnson, minus 162, versus Jamaican sensation, Osborne. [7:00] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:02] So most people are not going to pay a whole lot of attention to this fight. [7:07] Why? It was added less than two weeks ago. [7:10] And I think that Charles Johnson is a really good fighter. [7:16] So when you look at Charles Johnson, you're going to say to yourself, [7:19] well, you know his record? Nothing special. [7:23] Only been in the UFC for just a total of four fights. [7:29] and what did he do in those four fights? [7:33] Three and one, but his one loss was to Mohamed Makaev, [7:38] who might eventually be a champion. [7:41] And then in the meantime, since he lost that fight, [7:45] that was back in July of last year, [7:50] turns out the last month he's been training with a guy that he lost to. [7:54] And that is really, I think, the only way that Odie Osborne can win this fight [7:58] is on the ground, and he's not a guy that likes to go to the ground. [8:03] Here's a guy that likes to trade punches. [8:06] And just think that Charles Johnson, I mean, a couple of his last fights, [8:11] he fought Zagva Zumagulov, who is very underrated. [8:17] Jimmy Flick beat both of these guys. [8:21] So he's a guy that hits hard and I think can possibly knock out Odie Osborne. [8:27] Odie Osborne, last couple fights that he lost, Tyson Nam got knocked out in the first round. [8:34] Manel Cape got knocked out with a flying knee in the first round His two wins nothing special at all here So the only pass he has I think to win it Odie Osborne [8:45] is to go to the ground, and he's not good enough. [8:47] That's not his M.O. [8:49] And I just think that Charles Johnson is under the radar. [8:54] This guy can hit. [8:55] He can wrestle. [8:57] He can submit. [8:59] And I just think he's getting better. [9:00] One of these guys, 32, just really starting to hit his perfect cycle [9:06] as far as everything getting in high shape [9:09] and really going to be able to win it any single way here. [9:13] So I'm going to take Charles Johnson here minus the 162. [9:19] This line I think should be 250 at least. [9:22] I think it's low because he was added. [9:24] People feel that, okay, you know, he was added at the last second. [9:28] That's a disadvantage. [9:29] Here's a guy that stays in shape. [9:31] Also expecting, I think, his first child. [9:33] So has some purpose in his life here. [9:36] We're going to go with Charles Johnson. [9:38] Minus 162. [9:41] Blowout special.”
Osbourne def. Johnson by split decision — Ode' Osbourne defeated Charles Johnson by split decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen; Charles Johnson ML loses.
“The Clippers, 32-28 against the Sacramento Kings. [12:12] It's very rare that we talk about Sacramento, but they're having a good season. [12:15] They're sitting there at 33-25. [12:17] FanDuel.com line for this one. [12:19] The Clippers minus 6.5, minus 112 versus Sacramento. [12:22] Break this one down for us, Lee. [12:24] Well, you talked about the theme of teams being invigorated, [12:30] and I think this Clippers team feels pretty good about themselves going forward. [12:35] They now have everyone healthy. [12:38] They now made a nice addition, in my opinion. [12:41] What do you think the addition of Westbrook is going to be to this team? [12:45] I like it. I like it a lot. [12:46] I think that there's no pressure on him. [12:48] I think that he's going to go and have an ability to just go ahead and play [12:50] his own game. [12:51] Not have to worry about running side by side with King James playing in the same building a team that not supposed to be as good as the Lakers but are actually better and has a better supporting cast I think Russell Westbrook would be just fine I like that Yeah And at least for the short term you know maybe his personality will turn off some of [13:08] the players and by playoff time. [13:10] But I think for the first, you know, five, eight, 10 games, I think he's a nice addition. [13:14] He's been on some good teams before. [13:16] Remember in Oklahoma City? [13:18] I mean, he's got two superstars. [13:20] He can feed the ball. [13:20] I don't think he feels he needs to do too much. [13:24] He can play defense. [13:26] At least, you know, you don't have to play him 30, 35 minutes. [13:29] I'd say play him 25 minutes, start him, get him his rest, [13:33] where he can go real hard here. [13:35] The Kings, I mean, Kings have been kind of a sensation this year, [13:39] scoring 118.1 points for 100 possessions. [13:43] They lead the league in two-point percentage, 58.5, [13:47] ninth in three-point percentage, [13:49] but just can't play defense. [13:51] 23rd in the league. [13:53] Just this is a team that still, you know, [13:57] you look at the pieces and they should be better than what they are. [14:00] I think they're going to have a tough second half to the season here. [14:04] Clippers, like I said, coming back. [14:06] Kawhi Leonard looks really good here. [14:09] They'll be seeking revenge for the last time they played here. [14:13] So I think they'll get it. [14:14] And I just think LA is a really tough defensive team. [14:17] they have enough weapons to contain [14:19] beer and Fox and also [14:20] it's a bonus here so [14:22] team that does just one thing the Kings [14:25] score I think they're going to pay [14:27] the price here and I think Clippers [14:29] will be rejuvenated here [14:30] level 2 lock to end the [14:33] week let's go with the LA Clippers”
SAC 176, LAC 175 — Kings beat the Clippers 176-175 in double overtime; LA Clippers -6.5 loses outright, let alone covering (ESPN box score).
“South Alabama, the Jaguars going up against Texas State, the Bobcats. [3:44] The Jaguars come in 15-14, Bobcats 13-16. [3:49] FanDuel.com line on this one. [3:51] South Alabama minus 2.5, minus 115, with the take-back being plus 2.5, minus 105. [3:56] For Texas State, break this one down for us, Lee. [3:59] Yeah, the Jaguars look really good in their last game here. [4:03] Right in a four winning streak but that last game they buried the UL Monroe Warhawks 81 here They not going to win the conference But this is a team I think that on the rise here The Bobcats my former alma mater sitting at 13 and 16 six and 10 finally won a game on [4:25] the road. 78, 75 is crazy. They had a bunch of rolls. I mean, some three-pointers that would [4:31] hit the front rim, hit the back rim, hit on the rim again and roll. And it was one of the craziest [4:37] games. They finally came up with a road win, but I just think here the Jaguars are a much better [4:44] team here. So they shoot the ball well here, especially the last couple games, been above 50% [4:51] from inside the arc and also shooting at 50% three of the last four games, shooting the three-pointer. [5:01] So that's important. [5:03] You want a team that can shoot the ball here. [5:05] They average 70.9 points per game. [5:10] I just think this Texas team can't score. [5:12] They had to play their top player, Mason Harrell, [5:15] almost every minute of the game played 39 minutes. [5:18] He had 22 points, four rebounds, three assists, only a pair of turnovers. [5:24] But just think that they played a bad team. [5:27] and the Chanceliers in the last game here. [5:31] So I think they got lucky playing on nobody. [5:34] There was no crowd there. [5:36] Texas State just can't score. [5:38] I mean, 329th, that's right, 329th in the country, [5:42] averaging just 65 points per game this year. [5:45] They only dish out 9.8 assists per game here. [5:49] They only shoot 43% from the field. [5:52] So if you can't score and you're facing a team that can score early and often, [5:56] That is a big-time trouble here. [5:59] Texas State, 3-7 the last 10 games. [6:03] On the other side, the Jaguars, 7-3. [6:07] Two teams going in different directions. [6:09] Hate to say it, hate to go against my alma mater, [6:12] but I'm going to lay the small spot here. [6:14] Hidden gem, South Alabama Jaguars over the Texas State Bobcats.”
South Alabama 76, Texas State 67 — South Alabama beat Texas State 76-67 on Feb. 22, 2023; the +9 margin covers -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Sixth rank Virginia, the Cavaliers. [6:54] They're coming in 21-4, really good season. [6:57] Going up against Boston College, 13-15, not so hot of a season. [7:01] FanDuel.com line for this one. [7:02] The Virginia Cavaliers minus 8.5 versus Boston College. [7:06] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:07] So I think Virginia's good, but I just don't think this is a great team. [7:11] I mean, I think they're overseeded here, and they can't score. [7:16] So you're going to go on the road and play a team you already beat [7:20] and pretty much dominated and just walk in there and win easy again. [7:24] I just don't see it. [7:26] Boston College snapped a two-game losing streak, [7:29] won that Florida State on Saturday here. [7:31] I think they're looking for revenge for the 19-point loss against Virginia here. [7:36] Virginia got off to that 8-0 start to begin the year. [7:39] They beat No. 5 Baylor at the time, No. 19 Illinois. [7:43] But those teams have been up and down, you know, over the last couple weeks. [7:47] So I just see a team here, another team that just is not a scorer. [7:52] So you've got to be able to score. [7:53] That's what college basketball is all about here. [7:57] So I just think that Boston College is going to be able to score enough here. [8:02] I mean, it's not like teams are playing at Boston College [8:05] and going in and scoring a whole lot. [8:07] So Boston College has held, like I said, seven of the last opponents here below mid-70s. [8:14] So I just think all they've got to do is score in a low to mid-60s, [8:18] and they're going to be able to cover the spread here. [8:20] So Virginia, good, well coached, play good defense here. [8:25] But that just a lot to ask to keep going into opposing territory here and just keep winning here I know they don turn the ball over here but like I said they just don shoot that great from three range here [8:40] I love these conference games where a team loses the first game by a lot. [8:45] They come home and get to play a team here feeling good about themselves. [8:50] And also, let's look at what's going on with Virginia coming up. [8:54] They have two big games coming up here this next week. [8:59] They've got to play at North Carolina on Saturday, [9:03] and then they've got to play Clemson on Tuesday night. [9:07] I think they're looking heavier after playing Louisville, Notre Dame, [9:10] and Boston College. [9:12] I think they think they can just coast here. [9:14] We're going with a wrong team favorite here, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. [9:19] We're going to go with Boston College. [9:21] I think they're going to take this game down to the wire. [9:24] maybe pull off that shocker of the evening against Virginia on Wednesday night.”
Boston College 63, Virginia 48 — Boston College upset No. 6 Virginia 63-48 on Feb. 22, 2023, so Boston College ML cashes (ESPN box score).
“How about the Clemson Tigers and the Syracuse Orangemen? [12:22] The Tigers come in 19-8. [12:24] The Orangemen 16-11. [12:26] All I can think of whenever I see the word Syracuse is Jim Boeheim. [12:29] He's been there as long as I've been, well, alive. [12:32] FanDuel.com line on this one. [12:33] The Clemson Tigers minus 4.5 versus Syracuse. [12:37] Break this one down for us, Lee. [12:38] Crazy. [12:38] I mean, watching him when he came into the Big East, I mean, he brought, you know, [12:43] and these other teams, they brought the Big East to prominence. [12:46] I remember playing the tournament and all those games and the garden So he closing out 47 48 year career but and I probably be playing them that last home game but not yet [12:59] He seems angry. [13:00] This is a team that just hasn't fared well. [13:03] You talk about not performing up to expectations. [13:06] I watch this team and I think they're talented, but let's look at the wins. [13:10] They haven't beaten anyone. [13:12] That's any good. [13:13] Lehigh, Northeastern Richmond in November. [13:16] Then they go to December, and they beat teams like Oakland, Georgetown, which is horrible, Monmouth. [13:23] And in conference, their wins, check this out, are only against Notre Dame, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame again, Georgia Tech, B.C., Florida State. [13:35] And their first win against a team that might, not for sure, might go to the tournament, North Carolina State. [13:43] Just not impressive. [13:44] So you're looking at their record, you're going, oh, they're at 16-11 conference-wise usually. [13:53] If you go 500 or better, you make the tournament, they're at 9-7. [13:56] I don't think so. [13:57] I think they're going to have to reel off three out of four, [14:00] each of the last four games in conference to get to the tournament. [14:04] So I think it's going to be very, very tough. [14:06] This Clemson team started great. [14:08] They were 10-1, 10-1 in conference. [14:11] They stumbled three of the last four games, lost to Miami, who's red hot. [14:16] We know about Miami and how good they've been, very underrated. [14:19] They lost at North Carolina, no shame, and then lost on Saturday to Louisville, [14:23] where Louisville couldn't miss. [14:26] They brought back one of the championship teams. [14:28] It was just one of those games that I think you throw away. [14:31] I think they're going to get on a roll here. [14:33] I think they're going to win this game. [14:35] Then all they need to do is split between North Carolina State and Virginia, [14:38] win the final game against Notre Dame and win a game or two in the tournament. [14:43] And I think Clemson is going to be in this tournament. [14:45] So they are very good at home. [14:47] You talk about a team that has been dominant, 13-1 record at home here defensively, [14:54] maybe the top team in the ACC, believe it or not, here. [14:57] So the Orange, I think they're going to be up against it here. [15:01] And I think Clemson, like I said, they rebound from the Louisville fiasco here. [15:06] Lay the points. [15:07] I'm going all the way up on a Wednesday level three lock. [15:12] Clemson over Syracuse and Jim Bayham on Wednesday night.”
Clemson 91, Syracuse 73 — Clemson beat Syracuse 91-73 on Feb. 22, 2023; the +18 margin covers -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“going up against Murray State, the Racers. [3:14] How about that? [3:15] Missouri State, 14-14. [3:17] Murray State, 15-13. [3:19] Something's got to give in this one. [3:20] FanDuel.com line on this one. [3:22] Missouri State, minus 5.5, minus 115, [3:24] with the take back being plus 5.5, minus 105 for the Racers. [3:28] Break this one down for us, Lee. [3:29] Yeah, these two teams are tied in the standings, Missouri Valley Conference. [3:34] But Murray State of late has been playing much, much better here. [3:39] They want to make sure they stay ahead of Northern Iowa. [3:43] Seem to have troubled Northern Iowa, so don't want to play them in the first round. [3:47] They had a brutal stretch of games earlier in the month, [3:50] but have come back and have won the last two games and look really well. [3:55] So I think they're going to stay in this fine form. [3:58] They have usually dominated this series. [4:02] So Missouri State has been a team that you don't want to back, [4:07] especially the last month in the betting market. [4:09] They have failed to cover, get this, the spread in nine straight games, [4:14] including five straight at home. [4:16] So it's not like they're just having trouble. [4:18] A lot of teams have trouble on the road, play better at home. [4:21] This is not the case here. [4:23] Already came up short in the first game against Murray State on the road. [4:27] So I just think that they're going to continue having trouble here. [4:31] So they turn the ball over, and you turn the ball over, bad things happen here. [4:37] Murray State has covered six of the last nine meetings between these two teams [4:41] and is 11-4 the last 14 games in the month of February here. [4:46] So we're going to take the points here, two evenly matched teams here. [4:50] I'll go with a team with a better nickname, the Murray State Racers, [4:54] plus the five and a half points, Hidden Gem.”
Missouri State 84, Murray State 69 — Missouri State beat Murray State 84-69 on Feb. 21, 2023; Murray State's 15-point loss fails to cover +5.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“How about East Carolina versus Tulsa? [5:32] East Carolina comes in at 13-13, but Tulsa, 5-21. [5:37] FanDuel.com line on this one. [5:39] East Carolina's minus 1.5 versus Tulsa. [5:41] Break this one down for us, Lee. [5:43] All right, so they made a change at Tulsa and hired a new coach, [5:47] and they're trying to get some things working, [5:50] but they just couldn't attract any transfer guys. [5:56] Recruiting has not been good. [5:58] A lot of times that first year, things are really rough here. [6:02] So they're 5-21 straight up. [6:06] You thinking okay probably play close at home Not the case How about this overall spread record I don know I can remember the last time I seen a team this bad [6:16] They are 3-21-2 against the spread, and I watched their game against Tulsa. [6:22] They don't do anything right. [6:24] We're talking about they're not like in the 300s, low 300s on anything. [6:30] They're in the high 300s. [6:31] I think there's something like 350-something teams. [6:33] They're like 330 to 350 in almost every major statistical category. [6:40] So they're 1-14 in the AAC this year. [6:45] They just can't do anything. [6:47] One of their guards, Anthony Pritchard, he's out. [6:51] What happens when a team starts losing, guys don't even want to come back [6:55] if it's questionable whether they can play. [6:58] So they'd rather get healthy, [7:00] probably thinking about if they're one of the better players. [7:03] transferring. East Carolina, they just have had to play some really tough teams the last couple [7:10] weeks. But R.J. Felton had 27 points the last game, hit 10 for 19 here. So the problem was they [7:17] gave up 17 offensive rebounds in the last game. They're not going to have to worry about that here [7:23] with Tulsa. Tulsa just playing out the string here. Blowout special. East Carolina, the Pirates, [7:31] My high school nickname, they get the job done here. [7:35] They blow out Tulsa tonight.”
East Carolina 62, Tulsa 60 — East Carolina beat Tulsa 62-60 on Feb. 21, 2023, so East Carolina ML cashes (ESPN team schedule).
“How about 24th-ranked Texas A&M going up against 11th-ranked Tennessee. [8:22] Texas A&M 20-7, Tennessee 20-7. [8:26] Something's got to give on this one. [8:27] FanDuel.com line on this one. [8:28] Texas A&M minus one and a half, minus one on four with the take back being plus one and a half, minus 118. [8:34] Break this one down for us. [8:35] Yeah, Rick Barnes' team just have been up and down. [8:38] They play great some games and not so well the other games. [8:41] So it's tough to trust a team that's so up and down. [8:45] So two teams, exact same records. [8:48] You're saying, well, how's Tennessee ranked so much higher? [8:51] Well, they started the season ranked high. [8:53] So I've also noticed they started games slow. [8:56] you start game slow against a team like Texas AM, [8:59] you are in trouble. [9:01] This is a team here plays extremely well at home. [9:05] The Aggies reeled off nine straight home wins or 13 and one at Reed arena this [9:11] season here. [9:11] So I just think that they have the momentum The crowd is crazy They going to be rocking It like Kansas State now one of the toughest places to play They share the ball [9:22] They don't turn the ball over at home. [9:24] And I think Tennessee is going to have to rely on the three ball, [9:27] and they're not shooting it well, less than 34% over the last month here. [9:32] So we're going to go with Texas A&M at home on Tuesday. [9:37] Let's bring it up a notch. [9:38] Level 2 lock. [9:39] Boom, level 2 lock. [9:41] I thought for a second you were going all the way up.”
Texas A&M 68, Tennessee 63 — Texas A&M beat Tennessee 68-63 on Feb. 21, 2023; the +5 margin covers -1.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“UC Irvine versus Cal Poly. [5:32] This is the Ant Eaters versus the Mustangs. [5:34] Irvine comes in 19-8. [5:36] Cal Poly, 7-21, losers of 15 in a row. [5:41] FanDuel.com line on this one. [5:43] UC Irvine minus 10.5, minus 115 versus Cal Poly. [5:46] Break this one down for us, Lee. [5:47] Well, I'll tell you this right now. [5:49] Cal Poly, they're not the Mustangs. [5:51] They're the ponies. [5:52] I mean, because they're not showing much at all. [5:55] they have lost 15 straight games. [5:59] That's right. [5:59] 15 straight games. [6:01] And now they're playing the top team in the conference. [6:04] And you're saying, [6:05] Oh, [6:05] blow up city. [6:07] Oh, [6:08] not at all. [6:09] You have a team here in Cal Poly that played them. [6:13] Get this, [6:14] uh, [6:15] just February 9th. [6:17] And in that game, [6:19] and we know it's just 11 days ago, [6:22] They only lost by one point on the road. [6:26] How did they do it? [6:27] They slowed down the game. [6:29] So you're thinking a bad team, lost 15 straight games. [6:33] You know, there's major problems on the defensive end. [6:36] No, it's on the offensive end. [6:39] Defensively, they've only given up 80 points three straight times. [6:42] In fact, that's it during the entire season. [6:45] And these are against some pretty good teams. [6:48] Besides that, they've held a bunch of teams to the 50s and the 60s. [6:51] So their MO is to slow down the game. [6:54] They know they can stay with them here. [6:57] Home crowd will be into it. [6:59] I think they're going to pack the house here, thinking they have an advantage. [7:02] They actually have a physical advantage here. [7:04] They have a rebounding advantage. [7:07] I think that Cal Irvine is going to win the game. [7:10] But this is way too many points. [7:13] I think it goes down to the wire here. [7:16] Hidden gem. [7:17] we're going with the Cal Poly Mustangs [7:19] with all those gorgeous points [7:22] against the Cal Irvine Anteaters. [7:24] There it is right there. [7:25] Anteaters and the Mustangs. [7:27] And the Mustangs, as you said, [7:28] have been playing like the ponies. [7:29] But with that kind of a spread right there, [7:31] 10.5 points, [7:32] go ahead and use that as the hidden gem today [7:35] and roll with Cal Poly and the points.”
UC Irvine 59, Cal Poly 56 — UC Irvine beat Cal Poly 59-56 on Feb. 20, 2023; Cal Poly's 3-point loss covers +10.5 (ESPN box score).
“How about Duke coming in at 19-8 going up against Louisville, who's 4-23. [7:58] That's right, 4-23. [8:00] FanDuel.com line on this one. [8:02] Duke minus 18 minus 105 versus Louisville with the take being plus 18 minus 115 Break this one down for us Lee All right So got to see Duke here last week and I think Duke decent [8:17] But Coach K, oh, would they love to have him back. [8:21] So, I don't see the intensity in this team. [8:24] And I think Coach K brings out the best in his players. [8:27] I think John Scherr might eventually be good, but I just don't love this team. [8:32] Now, Louisville, horrible team. [8:34] I mean, you look at their record, they probably should be like a Division II team, [8:41] but they're playing better of late. [8:43] They beat Clemson on Saturday, beat them by 10 points here. [8:48] Duke, you're like saying to yourself, oh, okay, well, they should roll over a team here. [8:53] This line started as 20s, come down because they made a big-time mistake. [8:58] This line should be like 12, 13, 14 points here. [9:01] So the Blue Devils, ninth in field goal percentage in the conference. [9:05] That's right, ninth. [9:07] Twelfth in three-point field goal percentage. [9:10] They also 14th in the ACC in turnovers here. [9:15] Yeah, pretty good defensively, but Louisville's shooting the ball well over the last couple weeks. [9:20] They played Miami tough. [9:22] They beat Clemson. [9:23] I think they're going to be up for this game after the big upset here. [9:27] And this line is way, way too high here. [9:31] Well, it's not the wrong team favorite, but way, way too many points here. [9:35] We're taking Louisville plus all those gorgeous points here against Duke tonight and ACC action. [9:42] You got a nice little theme going here with taking the team that's not very good, but taking all the gorgeous points. [9:48] We got a theme going. And it's funny. We've talked about Duke so many times this year as being the wrong team favorite, [9:54] not necessarily to lose the game like in this situation, but just not as good as we're used to Duke being. [10:00] As you said, they might become really good, and their new coach might end up being really good at some point, [10:06] but he's not Coach K at this point. [10:07] So there's that. [10:09] But man, oh man, Duke, minus 18.5, minus 105 versus Louisville. [10:13] Again, the take back is plus 18.5, minus 115.”
Duke 79, Louisville 62 — Duke beat Louisville 79-62 on Feb. 20, 2023; Louisville's 17-point loss covers +18.5 (ESPN box score).
“How about Augusto Sakai going up against Dontail Lord Kong Maze? [11:43] That's a hell of a name right there, Lord Kong Maze. [11:46] FanDuel.com line on this one. [11:48] Augusto Sakai, who comes in at 15, 5, and 1, is minus 128 against Dontail Lord Kong Maze, [11:54] who's 9 and 4. [11:55] Break this one down for us, Lee. [11:57] Okay, there's a few people that think that Lord Kong is on his way up. [12:00] He's won the last two fights against Roque Martinez and Josh Parisian, [12:04] but I'm not impressed here. [12:07] I mean before that he had shown pretty much absolutely nothing in the first couple of fights he faced guys in the UFC And I just think what the UFC does it predictable They get a guy like Mays kind of on the way up [12:23] He's won a couple fights. [12:24] He'll fight a fighter on the way down. [12:26] That's how they try to sift out what's going to go on in the future [12:30] with these two guys. [12:31] But the problem here is just Mays isn't that good. [12:34] Both these guys are sitting at 31 years old, and you would think, [12:38] oh, look at the odds. [12:39] You know, Sakai, minus 128. [12:42] You know, why is he favored? [12:44] He's favored for a reason here. [12:46] He's coming off a bunch of losses. [12:48] We're talking about four straight losses. [12:51] But listen to the competition. [12:54] Alistair Overeem, Rosenstruck, Ty Tuvasa, and Sergei Spivak. [13:01] These are four quality guys. [13:04] Before that, he beat some pretty decent competition. [13:07] He beat Andre Arbolesky. [13:08] He beat Marcin Kibura. [13:10] He beat some good fighters here. [13:13] So here's a guy that they're moving down in competition, [13:17] same age as his opponent. [13:19] He hits at a strike rate, significant strikes per round, [13:23] at 4.7 strikes per round. [13:26] His opponent, Mays, just 3.7 strikes per round. [13:31] So Sakai's busier, has more power. [13:35] he has the ability to perform more submissions than his opponent here. [13:41] I think it's a clear, easy winner. [13:42] I think this line's going to close minus 140 to minus 150 by later in the week. [13:47] So we're going to get it on early here. [13:49] We're going to go the level one lock to start the week [13:53] and keep this ball rolling here. [13:55] We're going to go with Sakai here, minus the 128 level one lock over Lord Kong.”
At UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen, Augusto Sakai defeated Don'Tale Mayes by unanimous decision (30-27 x3), so Sakai ML cashes.
“How about Alexander the Great Ape Hernandez [6:07] going up against Jim Aten Miller. [6:10] The Great Ape is 13-6. [6:13] A10 Miller has been around forever. [6:15] He's 39 years old, 35-16. [6:18] When will he shut it down? [6:20] Well, time will tell. [6:21] FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:22] The Great Ape, Hernandez, minus 230 versus A10 Miller with the take back being plus 190. [6:28] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:29] All right, so the Great Ape is only 30 years old. [6:32] Usually guys are coming into their prime. [6:35] He was on a pretty nice roll here for a while. [6:38] He'd won two out of three, had beaten Chris Gritzenmacher and Mike Breeden, [6:44] but those two guys are nothing. [6:46] Then he loses Diego Moses. [6:48] He loses to Ronaldo Moicano, who's really good, and Billy Quarantino. [6:53] And what happened in those last two fights? [6:56] He got beat up. [6:57] He lost in the second round to Quarantino. [7:01] Standing TKO got battered. [7:04] And then before that, in the second round, Moicano beat him with a rear naked choke. [7:08] He took a ton of kicks, blows to the head. [7:12] His last fight against Quarantillo was a little over two months ago, [7:16] and they're bringing him back this quick. [7:17] I think that that's a problem. [7:19] Jim Miller, you know, he looked like he might have been finished at like age 37, [7:24] but then he's come on and he's won the last three fights, [7:28] beat Eric Gonzalez, Nicolas Motto, and then also Donald, Cowboy, Cerrone. [7:34] He's been off now for about seven months. [7:36] I think he's going to be as healthy as he's ever been. [7:39] They said he wants it to hang around until UFC pay-per-view 300. [7:43] So that's about another two years. [7:45] So I think the seven months off is going to do him well here. [7:49] So I think Hernandez here has some doubts. [7:51] And he's going to face Miller, who likes to brawl, good wrestler. [7:56] Striking is actually underrated. [7:58] He has a real good left hand, straight left hand. [8:02] He'll give you those calf kicks. [8:03] And I think if he can clip Hernandez and hurt him, [8:06] I just don't think Hernandez is going to react well to the adversity. [8:11] And Miller's a veteran. [8:12] I think he might flurry and hit him with a bunch of punches [8:16] or maybe even get a submission here. [8:18] We're going to go with Betal Little, win a whole lot. [8:23] You can turn this one here into a couple lunches here to Jim A10 Miller [8:29] in the big upset here on Saturday Night Fight Night.”
At UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield, Alexander Hernandez defeated Jim Miller by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28), so Miller ML loses.
“Cornell and Dartmouth. [9:07] How about that? [9:07] Cornell 15-8. [9:09] Dartmouth is 9-15. [9:12] FanDuel.com line on this one. [9:13] Cornell minus 9 versus Dartmouth. [9:15] How do you see this one shaking out, Lee? [9:17] Well, if they add both of our scores, Q, we're in. [9:19] I don't know about that. [9:22] I think so. [9:23] I think so. [9:24] Don't sell yourself short here, buddy. [9:26] All right. [9:27] So I got to see Cornell. [9:29] They played Miami. [9:30] How good is Miami Well when the next rankings come out if they win on Saturday against Wake Forest could be top 10 top 12 They sitting at 15 right now Miami has weapons they can score but so does Cornell [9:43] They lost in that game 107 to 105. [9:46] They didn't flinch. [9:48] They played better competition. [9:50] You know, usually when you see these games, a lot of people, [9:54] they just skip over them. [9:56] But Dartmouth, let's look at some of the teams that they lost to, [10:00] Incarnate Word, lost to them. [10:03] Quinnipiac, lost by nine. [10:05] Lost to Bryant by 19. [10:08] Lost to Grambling State early in the year. [10:11] Get this, by 24 points. [10:14] Who are some of their wins? [10:15] Listen to some of these teams. [10:17] Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts [10:20] and Northern Virginia Tech Johnson. [10:25] So they didn't play anyone. [10:27] They've been back and forth. [10:29] Actually, they've won three straight at one point, [10:33] but now they've lost two out of three again. [10:36] Cornell, the down point of the season for them, [10:39] even though they're sitting with a nice record, 15-8, [10:42] they've lost three straight. [10:43] I don't know what it is, but at home, this is a different team. [10:47] They've won 11 of 12 games at home. [10:50] They scored home, and here's something crazy. [10:54] They only average three steals a game on the road, [10:56] but they averaged 10 steals, almost 10 steals per game at home. [11:01] I haven't seen many teams that can do that. [11:04] So they're at home. [11:06] I think they're going to be angry. [11:07] They won almost by double digits when they played at Dartmouth here. [11:11] So we're going with Big Red here at home, lay the nine points, [11:17] blowout special over Dartmouth.”
Cornell 95, Dartmouth 83 — Cornell beat Dartmouth 95-83 in OT on Feb. 17, 2023; Cornell's +12 margin covers -9 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Coming up this weekend the DC Defenders and the Seattle Seadragons How about that Sunday afternoon action the fanduel line on this one the defenders minus one versus sea dragons break this one down for us lee yep so [14:31] you have to identify which teams are strong early in the season if you want to win in these type of [14:37] leagues like xfl uh af afl which will be coming back next year and also the usfl so xfl starts [14:45] this weekend. In two months, we've got the USFL, and I'm ready to go. By studying college football, [14:52] I think it really helps me a lot. And there's a couple teams that have strong rosters, [14:57] couple teams with weak rosters. So you look at this team, and I'm talking about the D.C. [15:02] defenders. D.C.'s done nothing in these leagues, but I think this is going to be a team that might [15:08] be, if not the best team, will be in the top two, top three. Jordan Tamu, former quarterback at Ole [15:14] miss. He did well in these leagues. He will start a quarterback. Two real good running backs. Abram [15:20] Smith, you remember him from Baylor. Artavius Pierce, who I loved at Oregon State. He's been [15:26] around a few years. I thought he should have made an NFL roster. For some reason, he didn't. Maybe [15:32] he was in the wrong place, wrong time. But listen to these receivers. They've got Puka Williams in [15:37] the slot. They'll use him. You do the jet sweep with Puka Williams. I thought he'd make an NFL [15:43] roster. Jaquaz [15:45] Ezard from Sam Houston State, [15:48] strong guy. Josh [15:49] Hammond from Florida. [15:51] Lucky Jackson from Western [15:53] Kentucky. Josh Malone [15:55] from Tennessee. Are you kidding [15:57] me? I love this roster. [16:00] I think they're way, way [16:01] underrated. And then, on the [16:03] other hand, let's look [16:05] at the San Antonio team. [16:07] And I think San Antonio, the Brahmers, [16:10] I like, you know, hey, inventive [16:11] name, but they have a coach here. [16:13] not coached, Hines Ward. [16:16] So I think that's going to be a problem. [16:19] Quarterback. [16:20] I mean, they're going to start Jack Cone. [16:22] Here's a guy who was Wisconsin and Notre Dame, didn't impress me at all. [16:26] Two running backs, Kalen Belajeman. [16:29] He was at Miami and a few other teams, Denver. [16:32] He's a guy, I think he averaged 1.7 or 1.9 yards in the NFL. [16:37] Got a bunch of plotters. [16:39] Jaquez Patrick from Florida State. [16:42] Nobody's a wide receiver. [16:44] Their line play looks mediocre at best here. [16:46] I'm going to lay the one point here. [16:50] Level three lock all the way up. [16:53] Let's hit it big here. [16:54] Let's go with a nice easy win for the D.C. Defenders on Sunday afternoon.”
DC Defenders 22, Seattle Sea Dragons 18 — DC Defenders beat the Seattle Sea Dragons 22-18 on Feb. 19, 2023; DC's +4 margin covers -1 (Wikipedia, 2023 XFL season).
“How about the Cleveland Guardians to win the AL Central? [3:01] What's funny about this is pitchers and catchers are reporting already, [3:04] so baseball is right around the corner. [3:05] But the FanDuel.com line on the Cleveland Guardians to win the AL Central is plus 135. [3:10] Lee, break this one down for us. [3:12] All right, so this is a wager you want to get on right now. [3:15] I think it's going to close close to a pick them. [3:19] This is the one future they have priced way, way off. [3:23] So baseball season usually in the off season takes a backseat to the other [3:28] sports during the fall months. [3:30] But this has been a wild one. [3:32] So there were a ton of free agency signings, [3:35] some trades and plenty of world series contenders losing on picking up star [3:40] players. [3:40] But do you know the one team that not only was really good last year didn lose anyone significant It the Cleveland Guardians No one talks about this team So this is a team that won the AL Central last year [3:56] Really good team. [3:58] They were seventh in batting average here, sixth in the ERA, fifth in whip. [4:03] They have one of the best starting rotations in Major League Baseball. [4:06] Didn't lose a single starter. [4:08] They had the top three bullpen in baseball. [4:10] Didn't lose any relievers. [4:11] They had the best defense in baseball. [4:14] Only lost to Austin Hedges, but replaced him with the best prospect in baseball. [4:20] The roster is well-rounded. [4:22] Terry Francona, still one of the best managers in baseball. [4:25] I look around the rest of the division. [4:27] I see an injury-riddled twin team. [4:30] Same with the White Sox here. [4:33] They're not even contenders. [4:35] I think they're both pretenders. [4:36] Neither of these teams can keep up and keep their star players healthy. [4:41] They both lost major contributors in the offseason. [4:44] Take the Cleveland Guardians plus 135 to win the division here.”
Minnesota clinched the 2023 AL Central on Sept. 22 with an 8-6 win over the Angels; Cleveland finished second at 76-86, 11 games back (Wikipedia, 2023 Minnesota Twins season).
“How about Zach the Ripper, Palga, going up against Jordan, the Beverly Hills Ninja right. [6:28] Zach the Ripper is 5-1. [6:30] The Beverly Hills Ninja is 12-4. [6:33] FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:35] Zach the Ripper, Palga, minus 3-10 versus Jordan. [6:38] the Beverly Hills Ninja Wright take back is plus 230. [6:41] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:42] Yeah, so here's what I'm looking at in this fight. [6:45] You're looking at Jordan Wright, and you look at his record, [6:48] and you're like, wow, he's lost his last three UFC fights, [6:52] but all six guys he's fought, he's 2-4 in the UFC. [6:56] These are tough guys. [6:58] Dusto Todorovic, I mean, tough guy. [7:00] Marc-Andre Barrault, tough guy. [7:03] Bruno Silva, maybe not a contender, top 15 guy here. [7:08] And also lost to Buckley, beat Jamie Pickett, beat Ikeville in a way. [7:14] But he's been in wars all six fights. [7:17] Yeah, he has a record of two and four. [7:19] But this is a guy that you look at him and you just don't take him serious. [7:23] You don't take his nickname seriously at all. [7:25] But I think he has fun with it. [7:27] I think he's actually improved a lot. [7:29] So Zach Palga, I watched the Contender Series. [7:32] And sometimes there some guys that are under the radar all of a sudden you find something and you jump on them early Well this is not one of them So Palga he fought actually in the championship of the Contenders Series [7:45] He had to fight Muhammad Usman. [7:47] Yeah, everyone knows his brother, Kamar Usman. [7:52] Muhammad Usman is just not very good here. [7:55] He lost that fight. [7:56] He couldn't beat Usman. [7:58] And he beat Jordan Heidelman, who is just not a good fighter at all here [8:04] in the contender series, also be up Niall Barling. [8:08] Just did not face any good competition here. [8:11] I think the moment's going to be too big for him. [8:14] So I think this should be a pick-em at best here. [8:18] We're going with the Beverly Hills Ninja on Saturday night here. [8:24] Saturday night fight night here. [8:26] Bet a little. [8:27] Win a whole lot on the Beverly Hills Ninja.”
At UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield, Zac Pauga defeated Jordan Wright by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28), so Wright ML loses.
“How about the Florida Panthers and the Washington Capitals? [9:07] The Panthers come in, 27 wins, 24 losses, 6 overtime losses. [9:12] The Capitals, 28 wins, 22 losses, 6 OT losses. [9:15] FanDuel.com line on this one. [9:17] The Panthers' money line, minus 120 versus the Capitals. [9:19] Break this one down for us, Lee. [9:21] Yeah, it looks like the Florida Panthers might be turning things around. [9:23] They've won four of the last six. [9:25] Offense is averaging over 40 shots per game in that span. [9:29] Goaltending room, healing up. [9:31] Remember, they went about a two-week stretch where they had to play their number three goalie, [9:35] and this guy was terrible. [9:37] I mean, their top two were out here, and it cost them in the standings. [9:41] They're coming off a tough blowout loss on national TV the other night to St. Louis, [9:45] but they're getting a shot at what I think is a real sitting duck Washington Capitals team tonight. [9:52] Washington has lost two or three coming out of the All-Star break, [9:56] including a 4-1 loss at home to the San Jose Sharks. [9:59] They have a laundry list of injuries right now. [10:02] So top defenseman John Carlson out for a majority of the regular season. [10:07] He's done their second-best winger, Tom Wilson, out yet again after missing the first couple months with a torn ACL. [10:15] And now Alex Ovechon, the heart and soul of this team, one of the best goal scorers in NHL history, [10:21] taking a leave of absence to mourn the passing of a family member. [10:24] this team just does not operate well in the few games he's been out in his career and they're just [10:32] not the same team at home in 2023 as they used to be i think the florida panthers should run away [10:38] with this one here florida panthers money line minus 120”
Florida 6, Washington 3 — Florida beat Washington 6-3 on Feb. 16, 2023, so Panthers ML cashes (ESPN scoreboard).
“Talk about a game out west. [11:03] We'll tell you the game and we'll tell you what [11:05] level lock it is. We'll do it next here on [11:07] Locked on Bets. [11:10] Open it, open it, open it. [11:12] Lee has the [11:13] key to the lock of the day. [11:15] Alright Lee, here we go. Let's close things out strong. [11:17] Lock of the day NBA action [11:19] about the Phoenix Suns and the LA Clippers. [11:21] The Suns 32 and 27. [11:23] The Clippers 32-28. [11:25] FanDuel line on this one Phoenix minus one minus 108 versus the Clippers it down for us Lee These teams actually will surprise you when you look at the stats [11:36] And pretty similar in rankings in a lot of different categories. [11:41] So, believe it or not, Clippers and Suns are not high-scoring teams right now. [11:46] I think they will be by the end of the year as they start playing their starters [11:50] and Durant starts playing after the All-Star break. [11:53] But the Suns rank 22nd in scoring. [11:56] That's it. [11:56] Clippers, believe it or not, 27th. [11:59] Both are excellent teams here, tied for fourth in points allowed. [12:04] So you don't think of them as defensive teams, [12:07] but they are both ranked near the bottom in field goal percentage, [12:11] but are top six from three-point range. [12:14] So the Suns, I believe the difference here, [12:17] better rebounding team and playing at home, [12:20] and where is their mindset? [12:21] that they have Kevin Durant coming back in about a week or 10 days here. [12:26] We're going to go with the Phoenix Suns, a level two lock on Thursday.”
LA Clippers 116, Phoenix 107 — LA Clippers beat Phoenix 116-107 on Feb. 16, 2023; Suns lost outright, busting the -1 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“How about the New York Rangers and the Vancouver Canucks The Rangers coming in this one 31 wins 14 losses 8 overtime losses [4:17] The Canucks, 21 wins, 29 losses, 4 OT losses. [4:21] Going to look at this one like this. [4:23] FanDuel.com line on this one. [4:25] The Rangers, minus 1.5 goals, plus 126, versus the Canucks. [4:29] We're going to do a little alternative puck line going to play on this game. [4:32] Break this one down for us, Lee. [4:33] Yeah, so the situation is ripe for yet another blowout of the Vancouver Canucks. [4:39] New York Rangers, a lot of people don't realize this, [4:42] one of the hottest teams in the NHL right now, [4:44] averaging five goals per game in the last five [4:48] and winning each of those five games by an average of two-plus goals. [4:52] Power play, red hot. [4:54] They found some physically defensive guys this year, [4:58] and the trade for Vladimir Tarasenko has rejuvenated the top two lines. [5:05] These two teams actually went against each other a couple days ago. [5:09] Normally I'd back the Canucks here in a quick revenge spot, [5:12] but this Vancouver team has just given up on the season. [5:15] They traded their captain, Bo Horvat. [5:18] They have two to three other additional defensemen on the way out at the trade deadline, [5:22] and they just lost to an awful Detroit Red Wings team at home 6-1. [5:28] Are you kidding me? [5:30] There's not much here to play for at this point in the season, [5:32] and it's showing. [5:33] They're now 7-20 the last 27 games against the Eastern Conference this year, [5:38] and they're 1-6 the last seven games against teams with winning records. [5:43] The Rangers come in in this one on three days of rest, [5:47] which is really important in the NHL season, [5:50] fully in the push for the cup final, [5:52] And I think they run away with something like 5-1, 6-1 a year. [5:57] So bet a little, win a whole lot on the New York Rangers tonight.”
6-4 — Rangers beat Vancouver 6-4, a 2-goal margin that covers -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee, they come in ranked 10th overall. [6:42] Alabama, number one overall. [6:44] Tennessee, Alabama. [6:46] Again, top 10 matchup in college hoops. [6:48] Excited about this one. [6:49] FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:51] Tennessee minus 2.5, minus 122, with the take back for Alabama being plus 2.5, plus 100. [6:57] Lee, one, I don't understand why Alabama is not favored in this one. [7:01] Break this down, WTF action. [7:03] Yeah, and Alabama's number one right now in the country. [7:06] But let's look at Tennessee first. [7:07] Month of February, they go to Florida, it was like 13 points, scored 54 points. [7:13] Then at home, and maybe one of the worst games I've ever watched in college basketball in the last decade, [7:19] They beat Auburn 46-43, and how bad was it? [7:23] Well, each team shot under 27%. [7:26] Auburn 11% on three-pointers. [7:30] Tennessee even worse, two for 21 from three-point land. [7:35] And you think, okay, well, they might want to stretch out their legs a little bit, [7:40] try to go up-tempo. [7:42] No, they lose at Vanderbilt. [7:44] Horrible Vanderbilt, 66-65. [7:46] And then they lost at home to Missouri. [7:50] I mean, this team is having problems. [7:53] Alabama, on the other hand, probably playing some of their best basketball. [7:57] They won four in a row. [7:59] Their defense, I mean, they are all over the place. [8:02] They're flying around. [8:02] I think they want to stay number one since they finally got there. [8:06] Beat Florida. [8:07] Blew them out last week. [8:09] We're talking about by 28 points. [8:12] Then they go on the road and they take care of Auburn who Auburn is always up for them We know about that rivalry here So they got two guys here Brandon Miller big difference maker This freshman forward scored at least 20 points two of the last four games [8:28] hitting the glass two. [8:31] And you talk about a guy that's not just scoring, 8.2 rebounds per game. [8:36] Mark Spears, he scored at least 13 points in three straight games here. [8:41] So I think you've got a team here in Alabama that's just doing everything, [8:47] the little things, playing also, like I said, with that just energy [8:51] you don't see many times in college basketball, [8:54] almost every single time out here. [8:57] And Tennessee allowed Vanderbilt to shoot 40% or more from deep two games ago, [9:03] and they allowed Missouri to hit over 52% of their field goals here. [9:08] wrong team favored number one ranked alabama crimson tide here plus the points over tennessee”
68-59 — Tennessee beat Alabama 68-59, a 9-point margin that busts Alabama's +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“How about the Philadelphia 76ers and the Cleveland Cavaliers? [11:00] The 76ers are 37-19. [11:02] The Cavaliers, 38-22. [11:04] These two teams are actually third and fourth in the Eastern Conference, [11:07] so this is obviously a big-time game on this Wednesday. [11:11] FanDuel.com line on this one. [11:13] The 76ers minus 2.5 minus 106 with the Cavaliers take-back being plus 2.5 minus 114. [11:19] Break this one down for us, Lee. [11:20] All right, so I think you want to lock this game early. [11:22] Why do I say that? [11:24] I think there's a chance Joel Embiid, who all of a sudden shows up on the injury list, [11:30] He's nursing left foot soreness. [11:33] And these big guys, when they've got problems with their feet, [11:36] it seems like a lot of these NBA teams are letting them sit for a game or two. [11:40] P.J. Tucker hasn't been himself. [11:43] He left the last game, had left calf tightness. [11:46] So these guys are not at their best. [11:48] I think they're going to have a big problem here against Cleveland. [11:52] So Cleveland, red hot. [11:54] Don't go against a team that do to lose theory. [11:56] They've won seven straight. [11:58] It took down Memphis this month and wasn't even close. [12:02] Donovan Mitchell, last game, 41 points, had six three-pointers. [12:07] Jared Allen, 17 points, 11 rebounds, and three block shots. [12:11] Darius Garland, he chipped in with 16 points and seven assists, [12:15] and if that wasn't enough, Evan Mobley, 15 points and 10 rebounds. [12:19] They are playing well. [12:20] They don't have one guy on the injured list here. [12:22] So believe it or not they lead the NBA with defense That right You don think about Cleveland being a defensive team right now leading the NBA with defense here So I know Philadelphia is at home here but Cleveland may be playing the best basketball [12:40] in the NBA. [12:41] Don't overthink it here. [12:42] We're going to go with a level three lock all the way up on Wednesday on hump day. [12:48] Cleveland Cavaliers over the Philadelphia 76ers.”
118-112 — Philadelphia beat Cleveland 118-112, a 6-point margin that busts the Cavaliers' +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“18th rate Creighton going up against number 25 ranked Providence. [5:03] Creighton comes into this game 17-8. [5:05] Providence 18-7. [5:07] FanDuel.com line on this one. [5:09] Creighton minus 2.5, minus 102. [5:10] with the take back from Providence being plus 2.5, minus 120. [5:14] Break this one down for us. [5:15] So Creighton is on an eight-game winning streak, [5:18] and a lot of people don't realize, you know, early in the season, [5:22] late November they lose to Arizona. [5:26] Then they lost a bunch in a row. [5:28] They lost to Texas, even Nebraska and BYU, [5:31] and then some pretty good teams in Arizona State and Marquette. [5:35] So they were under the radar. [5:37] And then they actually lost two of their first four. [5:40] conference games to UConn, Xavier, and then reeled off eight straight. [5:44] One of those wins, the first one that started, it was at home, [5:48] and they beat Providence 73-67. [5:51] But in that game, Providence just started really slow. [5:55] I mean, they shot under 30% for the first half. [5:58] They were trailing at halftime 41-29, made up part of it. [6:02] They actually covered. [6:03] They were getting seven and a half points and lost by six points in that game. [6:07] But they came back. [6:09] and I saw something in that game, and I think it's going to carry on here. [6:14] So, you know, this Creighton team is a good team. [6:16] I don't think there's a great team in this conference. [6:18] So a lot of pretty good teams. [6:21] I think that will get, you know, maybe some five, six, seven seeds, [6:25] but probably no team that's going to be going to the Elite Eight or the Final Four. [6:31] So Blue Jays are fifth in the conference in three-point shooting here, [6:36] and they have just not done well on the road. [6:39] So you've got to win games on the road here, [6:42] and you get a team coming home after they lost on the road. [6:46] They're going to run into a Providence team that's a buzzsaw, [6:50] 13-0 on the season here at home here. [6:54] Creighton is under .500 on the road here. [6:57] So I just think that this Providence team rebounds real well, top 10% here, [7:03] and I don't see them falling behind by 14 points like they did in the first game. [7:08] I think this game goes back and forth here, [7:11] and I think that defense and rebounding is going to be the difference here. [7:16] That's what makes it tough to go against a team here at home. [7:20] We're going to take the points here, and Providence, [7:23] they're going to serve that revenge on that cold, hard plate to Creighton tonight. [7:29] Wrong team favorite, Providence Friars.”
86-94 — Providence beat Creighton 94-86 in double overtime, winning outright and covering +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“12th ranked K-State. [8:06] Man, they're doing some good things this year. [8:07] Going up against Oklahoma, who? [8:09] Well, they're on the struggle bus. [8:10] K-State comes in 19-6. [8:13] Oklahoma 12-13. [8:15] FanDuel.com line on this one. [8:17] K-State minus 1.5 minus 104 versus Sooners. [8:20] Break this one down for us, Lee. [8:21] All right, so we talked many times about this Kansas State coaching staff [8:26] and what a great job that they've done. [8:27] So this is what they've done after they lost their first game of the year, [8:33] November 30th. [8:34] They come back beat Wichita state next loss at TCU lose by 14 next game at home They beat Kansas Then they lose to Iowa State I love the way this team responds [8:48] Again, they beat Florida by 14. [8:51] Lose again to Kansas. [8:53] What do they do? [8:54] Come back and win again against TCU. [8:57] So this is a team that really does well after they've had adversity. [9:03] So, you know, are they the best team in the conference? [9:07] I'm not sure the way that they rebuilt this team. [9:10] I think they had something like two players when they started the rebuild when he was hired. [9:15] So Kansas State, you know, great start. [9:17] The 115 of the first 16. [9:20] Went 4-0 to open conference play. [9:23] I still think they're going to be a big-time player here. [9:26] So I'm watching this Oklahoma team, and it's so important to take notes during the game, [9:31] whether you do it with your phone, you log in things that you see during the game, [9:36] or you have a notebook that you write in notes about each team, [9:39] they just don't have the firepower. [9:41] Just don't have it here. [9:43] Can't get stops. [9:44] I mean, there's so many things that I don't like here. [9:48] Whereas Kansas State, you know, they've got so many guys that can score. [9:52] They've got so many guys that rebound well. [9:55] They get out on the break and they convert on the break. [9:58] This Oklahoma team, I mean, they should have put away. [10:02] I mean, they look great to start the game. [10:05] I mean, on Saturday, if anyone watched that game when they were playing Kansas, [10:09] Kansas, I think, scored like four points in the first like 10 or 12 minutes of the game. [10:14] They should have been up by 20 points. [10:16] Couldn't put them away here. [10:17] So I'm going to go with Kansas State here. [10:21] Two teams trending in completely different directions here. [10:27] And Wildcats have also covered six of the last eight in these meetings here. [10:32] This line is one and a half. [10:34] Are you kidding me here? [10:36] Blowout special, Kansas State Wildcats over Oklahoma.”
65-79 — Oklahoma beat Kansas State 79-65 outright, so the K-State -1.5 spread lost (ESPN box score).
“How about the L.A. Clippers and the Golden State Warriors? [11:54] The Clippers, 31-28. [11:56] The Warriors, 29-28. [11:58] Think about this. [11:59] The Clipper right now, they're the sixth seed. [12:01] The Warriors are the ninth seed. [12:03] So just think about that. [12:04] This game is obviously very, very important. [12:07] FanDuel.com line on this one. [12:08] Clippers minus eight, minus 112 versus the Warriors with the take back being plus eight, [12:12] minus 108 for Golden State. [12:14] Break this one down for us, Lee. [12:15] Yeah, you got to think that some of these teams out west are going to start kicking [12:18] into high gear. [12:19] And some of the other teams, you know, like New Orleans, which have injuries, Minnesota, [12:25] Florida floundering, Utah, which seems like they're headed to the graveyard. [12:30] These teams are going to slowly slip back even more. [12:34] But, I mean, Phoenix, 31-27 record. [12:38] Clippers, 31-28. [12:40] And Golden State, 29-28. [12:42] These are three teams that have a chance to win it all in the West. [12:46] So I expect both of them to play much better. [12:48] Now, looking at this game, and I'm saying to myself, [12:51] both these teams have lost four of the last seven games. [12:54] Why are the Clippers such a big favorite here? [12:58] So I don get it What have they done the last two games They can score They lost both to Dallas at home 110 scored 104 against Dallas I mean Dallas plays no defense [13:10] Then they play Milwaukee, only scored 106 points. [13:14] This is a scoring lead here. [13:17] And then what do you have? [13:19] You have Golden State. [13:21] Golden State, they usually get to this point. [13:24] They start turning it on. [13:25] Two of the last four games, they've actually scored big. [13:28] Washington, they beat them 135 to 126 last night. [13:33] So it's a back-to-backer. [13:34] That factors into the line. [13:36] You have to understand why is this line where it is. [13:39] I think they probably gave two, three points here to the Clippers at home [13:42] because they're playing the back-to-back. [13:44] But Golden State's flying down the coast. [13:46] It's not like they're flying cross-country here. [13:49] So they can score. [13:50] Yeah, do I know they're without Steph Curry? [13:52] Absolutely. [13:53] But they still have weapons. [13:56] What kind of weapons? [13:57] Well, let's look at we know that they have guys that you've heard of before [14:02] and you're going to keep following. [14:04] They've got guys like Klay Thompson hitting over 39% of his threes. [14:08] He's averaging 21.5 points a game. [14:12] Jordan Poole, yeah, okay. [14:14] He starts sometimes. [14:15] Sometimes he comes off the bench. [14:17] Averages over 20 points per game. [14:20] Then you've got guys that, you know, under the radar. [14:23] Andrew Wiggins, on some teams he's their best player. [14:26] He's averaging 17 points a game, over 39% of his threes. [14:30] And then how about Kevon Looney? [14:33] Looney, he hits over 65% of his field goals. [14:37] That's right, 65%. [14:39] He's efficient here. [14:40] So I'm going to take Golden State here. [14:43] I think this is a game that goes down to the wire. [14:47] Level 2 lock on Tuesday. [14:49] We're going with the Golden State Warriors plus the points here.”
134-124 — Clippers beat Golden State 134-124, a 10-point margin that busts the Warriors' +8 (ESPN box score).
“Let's start things off with a hidden gem NBA action, the Chicago Bulls and the Orlando Magic. [4:51] The Bulls are 26-30. [4:53] The Magic are 26-34. [4:55] And this is an important game, as all of them are, for Chicago. [4:57] The Bulls right now are a half game out of the play-in tournament, [5:00] so they need to get as many wins as possible. [5:03] FanDuel.com line on this one. [5:04] The Bulls minus 5, minus 108 versus Orlando. [5:07] Break this one down for us, Lee. [5:09] Yeah, a lot of people, I can tell you this, will not be watching this game tonight [5:14] unless you're sitting in Orlando or in Chicago. [5:17] Chicago's sitting at 11th. [5:18] Orlando's sitting nowhere. [5:20] won't make the playoffs so here's what i see in this game i'm watching the miami heat game a [5:27] couple weeks ago they played orlando orlando dominated the game for three and a half quarters [5:32] let it slip away then on saturday night they led the entire game the miami heat did not lead one [5:40] time in regulation tied it up goes to overtime and the orlando magic blew it just had nothing left [5:48] mentally and physically. [5:50] So now, all of a sudden, it looks like they're going to be trading assets, [5:55] buying guys out. [5:57] And who are we talking about? [5:59] We're talking about the few guys that they have with veteran leadership. [6:03] Terrence Ross, buyout, gone. [6:05] Patrick Beverly, he'll be bought out. [6:07] Mo Bamba, traded. [6:09] So I just think it's a young and talented roster with no direction, [6:15] no senior leadership here. [6:17] So Chicago needs this game. [6:19] I think they pull it together after losing three straight. [6:22] Their backs are against the wall. [6:24] They have the scoring here that can get it done. [6:26] They have the veteran leadership with DeMar DeRozan. [6:29] I'm taking Chicago. [6:31] I'm laying the points here. [6:33] Hidden gem. [6:34] The Bulls big time over the reeling Orlando Magic.”
91-100 — Orlando beat Chicago 100-91 outright, so the Bulls -5 spread lost (ESPN box score).
“North Carolina against Miami. [7:13] North Carolina, 16-9. [7:16] Miami comes in 20-5, ranked 19th overall. [7:20] FanDuel.com line on this one. [7:21] North Carolina's minus 5.5 versus Miami. [7:23] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:25] Yeah, so this University of Miami team is on a roll. [7:30] Nine days ago, they go into Clemson. [7:33] Clemson was hot, leading the conference with a 10-2 record and took them down. [7:37] I mean, I think they won by four points, but it really should have been an 8-10 point lead. [7:41] Clemson did a couple threes late. [7:43] So this Miami team is rolling. [7:46] They got three big time scorers here in Isaiah Wong. [7:51] Omir their center averaging he averaging 14 points and 10 rebounds a game For college 10 rebounds a game is a lot And then Nigel Pack is coming on [8:02] He was at Kansas State two weeks ago against Virginia Tech. [8:07] What did he do? [8:08] Well, after scoring no points until seven minutes to go in the game, [8:12] hit five straight three-pointers in a layup, [8:15] ended the game with 17 points on a roll. [8:18] So they've got scoring. [8:19] The only thing that they're deficient in here in playing the Tar Heels is rebounding and shot blocking. [8:26] Shot blocking, not real important in the college game. [8:29] Almost every one of their players can guard everyone. [8:32] We're talking even their guards. [8:34] They can switch off. [8:35] Omer, their center, he can come out and guard quick guys with his length, his desire, his energy. [8:42] Miami plays with the energy probably 85% to 90% of their games. [8:47] That's Jim Laranegge, their head coach. [8:49] That's his motto. [8:50] And how good have they been the last 27 games on the road? [8:55] 21-6. [8:57] Everyone's talking about Miami's 13-game winning streak at home, [9:01] but 21-6 against the spread the last 27 road games. [9:05] Are you kidding me here? [9:07] So UNC here also 0-4 against the spread the last four games following a spread win here. [9:14] I'm taking Miami plus the 5-1⁄2. [9:17] Wrong team favorite. [9:19] in a huge ACC Monday night contest.”
72-80 — Miami won outright at North Carolina 80-72, well clear of the +5.5 line (ESPN box score).
“the New York Knicks and the Brooklyn Nets. [11:12] And I'll tell you what, about a week ago, this game sounded a lot sexier. [11:15] The Knicks are 31-27. [11:17] The Nets are 33-23. [11:19] FanDuel.com line on this one. [11:20] The Knicks minus three versus Brooklyn. [11:22] Break this one down for us, Lee. [11:23] So Brooklyn's got a nice record, 33-23. [11:26] But I think they're headed for a bleak finish here in the season. [11:31] Now, they might, after a couple weeks, start putting things together. [11:34] But it's really tough after the trade deadline. [11:36] When you've lost your top two stars, they've been traded away to all of a sudden remake an offense. [11:42] So I think it's tough also at this point in the season to get enough practices to lay the foundation [11:49] and to work out plays and out plays and set a defense It much tougher than you would ever believe So with a couple key guys in that rotation now playing the top seven [12:01] eight spots, I think the Brooklyn Nets are headed for a fall. [12:05] So the Knicks here, I think they're putting everything together, [12:09] except for Robinson, their center, who's been hurt on and off for the season. [12:12] Everyone else is healthy. [12:14] I love Brunson at point guard. [12:16] I think he's a guy that, you know, you might be able to get that fifth seed in the playoff and win a first playoff matchup. [12:23] So that's what they're headed for here. [12:26] And then also you got as far as rebounding. [12:30] Rebounding here in the pro game is very important here. [12:34] The Nets can't rebound and they can't shoot. [12:37] So I think this is a great situational play here. [12:41] The Knicks playing good defense here from three-point land. [12:45] They're defending the three-point line, which is very important in the NBA game here. [12:51] I've held opponents to under 35% from behind the three-point line here. [12:56] That's the sixth lowest three-point shooting percentage allowed here. [13:00] And 47 rebounds per game, third most here. [13:04] I'm going to go with the New York Knicks. [13:06] This is a small line here. [13:08] I think the line is way off here. [13:11] Blowout special. [13:12] New York Knicks tonight laying the small spot here. [13:15] in the Garden over the Brooklyn Nets.”
124-106 — Knicks beat the Nets 124-106, an 18-point margin that covers -3 (ESPN box score).
“St. Peter's. [2:59] These are the Peacocks going up against Marist, the Red Foxes. [3:03] That's right. [3:03] The Peacocks and the Red Foxes are squaring up in this one. [3:06] St. Peter's comes in at 9-13, and the Red Foxes come in at 8-14. [3:13] FanDuel.com line on this one. [3:15] The Peacocks minus 4 versus the Red Foxes. [3:18] Break this one down for us, Lee. [3:20] Okay, so this is the last time these two teams will meet. [3:23] And how about this? [3:24] Where do they meet? [3:25] In Poughkeepsie. [3:26] That's right. [3:27] Poughkeepsie was the first meeting between these two teams, [3:31] and we had an upset. [3:33] St. Peter's is a three-point underdog, knocked off the Red Foxes. [3:38] So Red Foxes, I think they're going to be ready for this game here. [3:44] They weren playing well at all They were going through some tough tough times here But all of a sudden last game their senior Patrick not Sauce Gardner [3:56] Patrick Gardner was phenomenal. [4:00] This guy had 29 points, nine rebounds, and three assists. [4:04] He started coming into his own here. [4:06] And I think they're going to be ready for this game. [4:09] I have them rated as a 278th-rated team. [4:13] And they're getting four points here on the road facing St. Peter's, [4:19] who is, according to my rating, to 303rd best team. [4:23] So, yeah, over the last couple weeks, St. Peter's been the better team. [4:29] But I think we're going to see Marist ready for this game, [4:32] like playing the underdog after they lost at home with a rematch game. [4:38] So a lot of people think, oh, you know, they'll just keep it going here. [4:41] But I don't think it's going to be that case here. [4:45] So when I look at this St. Peter's team here, I think that they've got some weaknesses here. [4:52] So they are one of the worst teams shooting three-pointers in the country, hitting only 28.9% of their threes. [5:00] That's 11th in the conference, 353rd nationally. [5:05] defense [5:06] they're giving up more than [5:09] 64.9 points [5:10] at home so [5:12] not the best home team here [5:14] let's go for a road [5:17] upset here [5:18] and our hidden gem [5:20] we're going to go [5:21] surprise the world here [5:24] we're going to go the Red Fox [5:25] of Maris here [5:27] they pull off the upset here against St. Peter's [5:30] and knock off the Peacocks here [5:32] hidden gem”
67-56 — St. Peter's beat Marist 67-56 at home, so the Marist moneyline pick lost (ESPN box score).
“How about the Indiana Pacers and the Phoenix Suns? [6:00] Everyone here in Phoenix is fired up about the acquisition of Kevin Durant right before the trade deadline. [6:07] The Pacers come into this one 25-31. [6:09] The Suns 20-37. [6:10] FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:12] Pacers minus one and a half versus Suns. [6:14] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:16] Okay, so I took in the Heat game against Indianapolis a couple nights ago. [6:22] We had Indianapolis. [6:23] Indianapolis getting the seven points. [6:25] They covered. [6:25] They lose by five. [6:27] But there are some big problems in Indianapolis here. [6:30] They just go out there and gun. [6:32] I mean, they turn the ball over early and often. [6:35] In fact, in that game had another double-digit turnovers. [6:39] Dumb fouls, too. [6:41] They just start chucking it up. [6:43] They love to shoot three-pointers. [6:45] So I just don't like the chemistry of this Indianapolis team. [6:49] Got some good individual talent here, but at the forward spot, [6:53] just don't play hard enough on defense and rebound. [6:56] Keep possessions here. [6:57] Don't like their bench either. [6:59] Philadelphia. We talked yesterday [7:01] about how was the Denver Nuggets [7:03] team feeling after they saw [7:05] that trade with Kevin Durant goes to Phoenix. [7:07] Well, not very good. [7:09] They were totally [7:11] distracted in the game against Orlando. [7:13] They lose outright. Now, Phoenix, [7:15] they don't have a whole lot of weapons here [7:17] for this game. Durant's still out [7:19] for a while, but I think [7:21] they've got enough Chris Paul. He's [7:23] playing extremely well, so [7:25] I think he's going to play [7:27] at a high level now that he knows he has that help here. [7:31] Also think that Torrey Craig he might pick it up here And DeAndre Ayton pointed he played well the other night 23 points He also had a couple blocks So I think he going to control the paint here [7:44] I think they're energized. [7:46] I think they're going to make a run. [7:47] They are the most dangerous team in the West, in my opinion, right now. [7:51] We're going to take the one-and-a-half points here on the road. [7:55] Wrong team favorite, Phoenix Suns over the Indiana Pacers on Friday night.”
117-104 — Suns beat the Pacers 117-104 outright, a 13-point margin that covers +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Philadelphia comes into this one. [9:56] minus one and a half versus the Chiefs. [9:58] It's a small, small line there. [10:00] That's the FanDuel.com line. [10:01] And again, Philadelphia minus one and a half versus KC. [10:05] What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? [10:07] All right. [10:07] So in my history of playing the Super Bowl, [10:11] a lot of times I look at the best quarterback. [10:13] Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in this game. [10:16] As good as Jalen Hurts is, [10:18] and he has improved more than I ever thought, [10:21] Patrick Mahomes is the guy. [10:23] Andy Reid, how about this? [10:24] Talk about playing a strong trend here, 28-4 as a head coach in his history [10:31] when given an extra week to prepare that stare in your face. [10:37] But I think Philadelphia here on the offensive line, three pro bowlers, [10:42] defensive line, they rotate eight or nine guys, hit 55 sacks here. [10:47] I can rarely say this in a Super Bowl when I look at either team. [10:51] this philadelphia team i i don't think that they have any weakness i can rarely ever say that [10:59] maybe going back the last 25 to 30 years so they are that strong even their special teams [11:05] are solid so what we're going to do here is unless you're like jaylen hurt throws maybe [11:13] two or three interceptions they turn the ball over three or four times i think the philadelphia [11:19] Eagles will be Super Bowl 57 champs here. [11:23] And also another thing I looking at Patrick Mahomes is as great as he is Only two touchdowns and four interceptions in the two Super Bowl games In the eight quarters only one good quarter [11:34] I just don't think he has enough help here. [11:36] Love the Philadelphia Eagles here. [11:39] I'm going to lay the one and a half points here. [11:41] Nope, I'm going to take them on the money line. [11:43] I don't want any game decided by one play or a two-point conversion at the end here. [11:48] Philadelphia Eagles money line all the way up for maybe my greatest week ever. [11:56] Level three lock, Philadelphia Eagles over the Kansas City Chiefs.”
35-38 — Kansas City beat Philadelphia 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII, so the Eagles moneyline pick lost (ESPN box score).
“How about Yair El Pantera Rodriguez going up against Josh Emmett? [2:35] Yeah, one guy with a fancy nickname and one guy just named Josh. [2:39] But that's all right. [2:40] Yair El Pantera Rodriguez, 14-3. [2:43] Josh Emmett, 18-2. [2:45] FanDuel.com line on this one. [2:46] El Pantera, minus 155 versus Josh Emmett. [2:49] Break this one down for us, Lee. [2:51] Yeah, Josh Emmett's good, but he's 37. [2:53] A lot of times you reach that age and all of a sudden can't take a punch like you used to. [2:59] And he's been in some wars lately. [3:01] He has fought some pretty darn good fighters of late, Calvin Cater, Shane Burgos, Dan Ige, won all three. [3:10] But I thought that Calvin Cater just was not there. [3:12] Sometimes you step in the ring, just not your day. [3:15] Most days I think Cater beats him, but give him credit. [3:18] He won a split decision. [3:21] I didn't think he was the better fighter that night. [3:23] I think the judges got it wrong. [3:25] I think something like 15 out of the 18 people that judged the fight [3:30] other than the three judges had it the other way. [3:32] So this line is pretty close. [3:35] I mean, it's sitting 150, 155 most places here. [3:39] And Rodriguez is a kid that's just getting better, 30 years old. [3:43] uh he can i just think he's quicker uh than emmett has more power uh can kick can strike [3:51] can defend even if he gets knocked down and i think he like to just start to tap into his potential right now Two guys that are highly rated here I think Rodriguez gets the job done here [4:06] Knockout or he gets a unanimous decision here. [4:09] We're going to go with Yair El Pantera. [4:13] Rodriguez, money line over Josh. [4:16] I don't even have a nickname, Emmett, here.”
Yair Rodriguez defeated Josh Emmett by second-round submission (triangle choke) to win the interim featherweight title at UFC 284 (Wikipedia UFC 284 results).
“How about the Minnesota Wild going up against my Vegas? [5:55] Golden Knights. [5:56] The Wild come in. [5:57] 27 wins, 19 losses, 4 overtime losses. [5:59] The Golden Knights, 30 wins, 18 losses, 4 OT losses. [6:03] FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:05] The Wild minus 122 versus the Golden Knights with the take back being plus 102. [6:09] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:10] All right, so the Knights are small underdogs in Minneapolis against the Wild tonight, [6:16] but they really, I believe, should be favored, something like 120 to 130. [6:21] Situationally, Vegas Knights have played just one game since the All-Star break ended, [6:26] and they absolutely dominated Nashville. [6:28] Now, get this, they held the Nashville Predators to get six shots here on goal [6:34] until about halfway through the third period, [6:36] which was on pace for an NHL record before Nashville put up some garbage time opportunities. [6:42] Now they're stopping here in Minneapolis here on the way home for a long stretch in Las Vegas. [6:50] They are much more rested than the Wild. [6:52] And while they are on a road trip right now, they obviously had a nice break between games to get their legs back. [6:59] Minnesota, on the other hand, could not have looked worse out of the break. [7:03] Just three goals in two combined games out of the break against lowly Arizona and Dallas. [7:08] And lost both games. [7:10] Played last night. [7:12] They were actually outshot in that game. [7:18] And they had an early deficit in that game. [7:23] And just were not able to get possession back. [7:27] And they're on back-to-back games here. [7:29] Playing last night. [7:31] Traveling from Dallas back home. [7:33] while they try to just regain that chemistry that they had before the break. [7:37] I just don't see them playing a strong game here and getting that magic back. [7:43] I think it's going to be close for a while, [7:45] but I think the Knights end up taking a 3-2 or 4-2. [7:48] We going to go with our wrong team favorite Vegas Golden Knights money line plus 102 in Frigid Minneapolis There it is right there Frigid Minneapolis [8:00] but the Golden Knights getting it done.”
5-1 — Vegas Golden Knights beat the Minnesota Wild 5-1 outright, winning as moneyline underdogs (ESPN box score).
“How about the Denver Nuggets and the Orlando Magic? [8:16] The Nuggets 38-17. [8:17] The Magic are 22-33. [8:20] FanDuel.com line on this one. [8:21] The Nuggets minus 6.5 versus the Magic. [8:24] Break this one down for us, Lee. [8:25] All right, so let's look at the human side of handicapping [8:31] and kids playing in games. [8:33] These aren't kids. [8:35] These are adults. [8:36] But you've got to think that this Denver Nuggets team, [8:40] they're sitting there last night or early this morning when they wake up [8:44] and they're like, what? [8:45] Are you kidding me? [8:47] Kevin Durant is now with Phoenix? [8:49] They got Booker, Durant, and Paul? [8:52] I mean, that might end up being the big three. [8:55] They think that they got a chance. [8:57] They're running away right now with the West, [8:59] but now all of a sudden Phoenix is going to make a run. [9:03] I think they're rattled here a little. [9:05] So they're facing an Orlando team that usually Orlando doesn't have the experience, [9:10] but they're long and athletic. [9:12] Those are the type of teams that Denver has trouble with. [9:15] So I'm just watching this Denver team, [9:19] and they're first in the NBA in three-point field goal percentage, [9:23] but not real good at protecting the basketball. [9:28] 19th there, 20th in the league in rebounding, [9:30] which is a little surprising since they have maybe the best center in the NBA. [9:36] 13th in scoring here. [9:38] So Orlando's numbers aren't bad. [9:40] I'm telling everyone this team's coming on. [9:43] Markel Futz playing well, Frantz Wagner. [9:47] These two guys chipped in 21 and 18 points in their last game. [9:51] And defensively, I mean, this is a team that's not bad. [9:55] You would think a team with a 22 and 33 record, not bad, [9:59] just rated 18th or right in the middle, 17th in the NBA in rebounding here. [10:04] I think they're going to be up for this game. [10:05] They have played extremely well against the top teams, [10:10] almost a 500 record it's crazy here i'm taking the six and a half points here minus 110 or orlando [10:19] magic wrong team favorite they might have been upset the distracted phoenix suns oh there it is [10:26] right there you know we rode the magic uh quite a bit right we've had to be a few plays uh so far [10:31] this season so they've been doing some good things even though the record doesn't reflect [10:35] Denver's going to be distracted. [10:36] Like I said, that news has got to be something that just shakes them up. [10:40] So I like Orlando here big plus the 6.5 over Denver.”
115-104 — Orlando beat Denver 115-104, an 11-point margin that clears the +6.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee and Vanderbilt. [3:22] Tennessee comes in 19-4. [3:24] Vandy 11-12. A little surprising right there. [3:26] I like Vanderbilt. [3:27] FanDuel.com line on this one. [3:29] Tennessee minus 10.5 minus 102 versus Vandy with the take back being plus 10.5 minus 120. [3:34] Break this down for us, Lee. [3:36] They've won 11 straight times here. [3:38] But if you watched a game against Auburn on Saturday, and I did, it was painful. [3:44] I mean they shot 27 from the field against Auburn But they won the game because the Auburn Tigers shot an even lower percentage [3:54] an almost record low 23.6 in that game. [3:59] But Osea Jordan-James posted a double-double, [4:03] 15 points and 14 rebounds. [4:05] There's a lot of rebounds here. [4:08] Tennessee's actually held opponents to 50 points or fewer [4:10] 11 times this year. [4:13] They beat the Volunteers by 11 points earlier in the season, [4:17] but now it's the second game in the series. [4:20] And these teams, they know each other inside and out here. [4:25] This Commodores team, I think they've got enough scoring here. [4:29] So I just like what they're doing here on offense here. [4:34] I like what Tyrone Lawrence is doing. [4:37] He has improved markedly over the last couple games, [4:40] Notch's first double-doubles career, 18 points and 10 rebounds after Jerry Steckhouse decided to bench him [4:48] following their loss to Alabama in the previous game here. [4:52] Jordan Wright missed Saturday's game, but I think he's got a good chance of playing in this game here. [4:58] You do not want to lay big points, especially double digits with a team coming off of scoring only 45 points here, [5:06] now going on the road. [5:07] Vanderbilt, one of the toughest places to play. [5:10] One of the most unique courts. [5:12] The benches are below the court. [5:15] It's the strangest thing you've ever seen. [5:17] I've even gone on the court. [5:18] It's bizarre. [5:19] I think it's really tough for college players to get used to it when they play there. [5:24] And Jerry Stackhouse, I think he's a very underrated coach here. [5:28] I think this game goes down to the wire here. [5:31] Wrong team favorite. [5:32] I'm going with the Vanderbilt Commodores in basketball tonight [5:36] over highly ranked Tennessee Volunteers.”
66-65 — Vanderbilt won outright 66-65 on a buzzer-beater 3, easily covering as a +10.5 underdog (ESPN box score).
“How about the Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers? [6:24] Celtics 38-16 on the season, 76ers 34-18. [6:29] FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:30] The Celtics minus 4.5, minus 114 for 76ers. [6:34] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:35] So the 76ers are finishing up a three-game road trip. [6:38] They beat the Spurs last game, 137-125, but everyone beats the Spurs. [6:43] Spurs have just absolutely given up. [6:46] They're going to be trading off assets. [6:48] Everyone knows it here. [6:49] Joel Embiid, special. [6:51] I mean, this guy is unguardable, 30 points in two of his last three games, [6:56] six consecutive double-doubles. [6:58] He's averaging, get this, 33.4 points per game and 10.2 rebounds per game. [7:04] But the problem here is James Harden shot 40% or lower in three of the last four games, plays nothing. [7:11] No defense. [7:12] Not a stick of defense here. [7:14] He is aging. [7:16] I mean, he's going down quickly here. [7:19] Maxie, Tyrese Maxie, is going to have to have a big game for them to win this game. [7:23] On the other side, Boston Celtics team winning the Eastern Conference. [7:28] Another guy that's unguardable, Jason Tatum. [7:30] I mean, he does everything here. [7:32] He averaging over 30 points a game 30 points per game Jalen Brown didn play in the last game He expected to play in this game And Malcolm Brogdon I mean you talk about how were they able to fit him [7:44] under the cap. [7:45] He's recorded 16 points in the last meeting versus 76ers, [7:50] 30-year-old point guard. [7:53] He shot at least 50% in three of the last four games here. [7:56] So I think that Boston is just too deep here for Philadelphia. [8:01] I think Philadelphia relies too much on Embiid offensively and defensively to save them [8:07] because so many players on the 76ers just don't play enough defense here. [8:12] The line's short here. [8:13] We're going to go with a blowout special. [8:17] Boston Celtics, they stay atop of the Eastern Conference [8:20] and knock down the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.”
106-99 — Celtics beat the 76ers 106-99, a 7-point margin that covers -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“We'll start things off with the first lock of the day, Kenneth Gainwell. [10:15] Eagles running back, 19.5 rushing yards is what we're looking at. [10:19] Again, Fandle.com line on this one. [10:20] Kenneth Gainwell, 19 and a half rushing yards, yes, minus 110, or no, plus 100. [10:26] What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? [10:27] Yeah, so what I do is I spend probably two hours a day leading up to the Super Bowl looking at the prop plays. [10:36] There's almost 500 of them that are out right now. [10:39] And I project Kenneth Gainwell to gain. [10:43] I mean, he's a guy that's really come into his own of late. [10:46] They put him in a lot on third downs, but they use him out of the backfield to run a lot. [10:50] But also, late in the game when they pounded him with Miles Sanders, [10:54] they put in Gainwell. [10:55] I project him like 36, 37 yards. [10:58] The total here is 19.5 rushing yards. [11:00] We're going to start off with a level one lock today. [11:03] Kenneth Gainwell over 19.5 rushing yards.”
Kenneth Gainwell rushed 7 times for 21 yards in Super Bowl LVII, clearing the 19.5 line (ESPN box score). (Gainwell 21 rushing yards)
“Who going to catch a pass first Isaiah Pacheco or Miles Sanders Well the FanDuel line on that one Isaiah Pacheco and Miles Sanders [11:34] minus 130 or plus 110. [11:36] Lee, break this one down for us. [11:38] Miles Sanders, they're going to want to pound him, and he's not a bad receiver, [11:42] but what does Isaiah Pacheco do really well? [11:45] Catch the football out of the backfield here. [11:48] I think they're going to want to set some things up, [11:50] and with that reason going with Isaiah Pacheco here minus 130 to catch a pass before Miles Sanders”
Isaiah Pacheco recorded zero receptions in Super Bowl LVII while Miles Sanders caught 2 passes, so Pacheco never caught a pass before Sanders (ESPN box score receiving tables). (Pacheco 0 REC, Sanders 2 REC)
“talking [12:14] about Travis Kelsey touchdown or no in the Super Bowl fanduel.com line on that one yes minus 115 [12:20] or no, plus 100. [12:22] Break this one down for us. [12:23] All right, so I think this kid's something special. [12:27] He might go down when it's four, it's all over, [12:30] it's the greatest tight end of all time. [12:32] And they've got so many injuries. [12:34] I mean, they're going to be without Hardman for this game, it looks like. [12:37] The other two receivers, who I like a lot, are going to be possibly limited here. [12:43] So Travis Kelsey is going to catch, I think, six, seven, eight balls minimum. [12:46] and he sure finds a way to snip the end zone here. [12:51] So I'm going to go with Travis Kelsey here to score a touchdown. [12:55] Yes, minus 115, all the way up to level three lock.”
Travis Kelce caught an 18-yard touchdown pass in Super Bowl LVII, finishing 6 catches for 81 yards and 1 TD (ESPN box score). (Kelce 6 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD)
“How about Wake Forest versus North Carolina? [6:52] Wake Forest is 15-9. [6:54] North Carolina, 15-8. [6:56] FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:58] Wake Forest minus a half a point, minus 110 versus the Tar Heels. [7:01] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:02] Yeah, and I'm watching Duke and North Carolina on Saturday night and wrote this twice. [7:10] I said, North Carolina and Duke are just not the same team. [7:15] So with that being said, they played earlier in the season. [7:20] Wake Forest covered, but really had no chance to win that game. [7:27] They lost 88-79. [7:28] They were getting 10 points. [7:30] So now we look at the game here that I believe is way more important for the Demon Deacons. [7:38] Demon Deacons are sitting, I believe, just outside the tournament right now. [7:42] Joel Lenardi has them as the 65th best team. [7:47] Last two trips, North Carolina made Winston-Salem blowout losses here. [7:52] This North Carolina team, just two up and down here. [7:56] Wake Forest. You look at the stats, pretty similar here to North Carolina, but they did hit 47% of the threes against North Carolina in that game, even though they lost a bunch of turnovers. [8:12] I think the three-point shooting at home, usually much better by home teams here. [8:16] And this North Carolina team, no identity, just like Duke last night here. [8:21] Wake Forest here, minus the half a point blowout special in Winston-Salem.”
WAKE 92, UNC 85 — Wake Forest beat North Carolina 92-85 outright, which covers the Demon Deacons -0.5 (ESPN box score).
“How about Michigan State versus Maryland? [9:09] Michigan State comes in at 14-9. [9:11] Maryland, 16-7. [9:14] FanDuel.com line on this one. [9:15] Michigan State, minus three, minus 110. [9:17] Man, first Maryland. [9:18] Break it down for us, Lee. [9:20] Yeah, so I've watched Maryland quite a few times this year. [9:22] They are not ranked in the top 25, but I really believe they're a top 25 team. [9:28] Most polls have them somewhere between like 27th and 32nd if you look at them. [9:36] And they're coming off a nice win. [9:38] They beat Minnesota really bad. [9:39] Minnesota team hammered them 81-46 in the last game here. [9:43] They won four straight since losing to Purdue 58-55 as a nine-point dog. [9:51] Played well over that time but they going to face a team here that I think just really needs this game also We talk about urgency here And even though Maryland a better team at this point [10:07] they have just one conference win. [10:09] That's right, just one conference win, [10:10] and it came against a team that was absolutely decimated with injuries [10:15] and now dealing with COVID. [10:18] Spartans, just not the same team when they hit the road. [10:21] They lost to Rutgers by double digit, lost to Iowa, lost to Michigan here. [10:26] And it's just way too important here for Sparty here. [10:30] So I think you've got the better three-point shooting team. [10:33] They're at home. [10:35] Also, look what Michigan State does at home. [10:38] They hold teams to just 23.8% shooting from three-point range. [10:44] And they also out-rebound teams at home by 3.8 rebounds here. [10:49] Maryland's going down here. [10:50] I love Izzo at home here when he needs a win when you get late in the season. [10:56] and that's where he does his best work, not November. [10:59] It's February and March here. [11:01] Michigan State blowout special number three over Maryland tonight.”
MSU 63, MD 58 — Michigan State beat Maryland 63-58, a 5-point margin that covers the Spartans -3 (ESPN box score).
“Top 15 matchup right here. Kansas versus Texas. This is Big 12. [3:26] Kansas 18-5, Texas 19-4. They're doing some big things in Austin. [3:30] FanDuel.com line on this one. Kansas minus 3.5, minus 120. [3:34] With the take back for Texas being plus 3.5, minus 102. Break this one down for us. [3:39] Yeah, so unless you're in Big 12 territory or you really follow college basketball, [3:44] The story still is in most people mind Texas firing their head coach I mean people don realize how under the radar this team is They are a top team [3:56] They are a team that's leading the conference. [3:59] That's right. [4:00] Kansas isn't leading. [4:02] Kansas State's gotten probably as much headlines over the last month as any team. [4:07] They're not leading the conference, nor is Baylor. [4:09] But, wow, what a job the interim coach has done here, Rodney Terry. [4:16] So, pulled this team together. [4:19] They were trailing, I think, in maybe the toughest venue right now in college basketball this year, Kansas State. [4:25] They were down by 11 points at half. [4:29] They overcame, that's right, overcame almost 20 turnovers. [4:35] That's right, almost 20 turnovers in a tough place. [4:38] They only shot 45%. [4:39] They were 19 for 24 shooting free throws, which is 79%. [4:44] Not bad, but they just did it. [4:47] They just buckled down. [4:48] They played good defense, made a nice run to start the second half, [4:52] withstood a couple tough charges from Kansas State. [4:56] Senior guard Marcus Carr, just a steadying force here. [5:01] Some other players playing some really good basketball on both sides. [5:05] got Sabari Rice, Timmy Allen, and Tyrese Hunter. [5:10] Only give up 67 points per game and allow just 42% from the field [5:17] and 32% from three-point range here. [5:21] So I expect them to keep playing well here. [5:23] Kansas coming off some really big wins against Kentucky and Kansas State [5:29] and just fell on Saturday just from start to finish against Iowa State. [5:33] So if you're just all of a sudden taking Kansas figure and home court advantage, [5:37] that's the difference. [5:39] I think you're playing them for the wrong reason here. [5:41] We're going to go with the wrong team favorite. [5:44] I'm going to keep riding the Texas Longhorns plus the points here at Allen Fieldhouse. [5:50] I think they come away with the W against Kansas.”
KU 88, TEX 80 — Kansas beat Texas 88-80; the Longhorns lost by 8, missing the +3.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“How about the New York Islanders against the Philadelphia Flyers? [6:23] The Islanders coming to this one, 25 wins, 22 losses, 5 overtime losses. [6:27] The Flyers, 21 wins, 21 losses, and 9 OT losses. [6:31] FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:33] The Islanders' money line, minus 137 versus the Flyers. [6:36] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:37] Yeah, the Islanders are finally making their run at the Stanley Cup [6:40] after a really disappointing start to the year. [6:43] Islanders made a trade for the captain of the Vancouver Canucks, Bo Horvath, [6:48] last week just before the All-Star break. [6:50] A lot of people didn't notice it. [6:51] It wasn't in the headlines, you know, like the trade we saw in basketball. [6:55] But just think that this is going to be a big move for them. [7:00] He has 12 more goals than anyone else on the roster. [7:03] He's immediately going to make an awful power play much better. [7:07] They're starting the second half easy with a matchup, I think, against Philadelphia. [7:13] The Flyers have lost three of four headed into the break. [7:17] Kevin Hayes criticized their all-star, only all-star, criticized the head coach, [7:22] had some harsh words for his coach a few weeks ago, and they're gearing up, I think, to trade [7:30] some guys away before the deadline in a few weeks. So I expect these two teams to start [7:34] moving in opposite directions and it starts tonight here Game you kind of love here too Blowout special I think the Islanders which normally don score a whole lot of goals [7:47] they take this one 4-1 or 5-1 here over the Flyers.”
NYI 2, PHI 1 — The Islanders beat the Flyers 2-1 in Bo Horvat's debut, winning outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“Miami, 18-5, going up against Duke, who is 17-6. [10:32] Again, another top 25 matchup that we have on today's show. [10:36] FanDuel.com line on this one. [10:37] Miami minus 3.5 minus 102 versus Duke with the take-back being plus 3.5 minus 120. [10:43] Break it down for us, Lee. [10:44] You know, I don't know if I've ever seen it this late in a basketball season. [10:48] Six teams within one game of first place. [10:51] I mean, it's crazy. [10:53] I think crazy as it may seem. [10:56] The ACC could end up with nine teams in the tournament this year. [10:59] It is that stacked at the top. [11:01] So this is a game where Duke won a couple weeks ago. [11:07] And I'll tell you, as you know, I'm a Miami fan. [11:10] Thought they got home jobs, as a lot of teams do when they go to Duke. [11:13] Couldn't seem to get a call. [11:15] Couldn't get that one basket to also get them over the hump. [11:18] But now it's payback time. [11:20] First ever, and I'll be at the game tonight, it is a whiteout. [11:24] Miami basketball has never tried to wide out so the place will be rocking looking for a little revenge there And boy is Miami playing well You talk about the last couple games they overcame almost a double lead deficit [11:39] in the second half to Virginia Tech. [11:42] And Nigel Pack, you know him well from Kansas State. [11:45] He had zero points with seven minutes to go, then hit five straight three-pointers and [11:51] a layup, ended with 17 points. [11:54] They came back. [11:55] They won the game by nine points. [11:57] over a very underrated Virginia Tech team that knocked off Virginia. [12:01] And then went into Clemson, which was 10-2 in conference, ranked 20th, [12:06] and knocked them off by four points, much bigger than the score would indicate. [12:10] So this is a team shooting the ball extremely well. [12:14] Well-coached Jim Laranega. [12:17] He lets his guys figure it out. [12:19] I don't know if he's the best X's and O's guy at the last second for one play, [12:23] but I think he's going to have his team ready for this game. [12:26] Jeremy Roach for Duke leads a Duke team that's also playing well. [12:30] Duke has won their last three games, [12:32] so they won on Saturday night against North Carolina. [12:36] He had 20 points and seven rebounds in that game here, [12:39] but Duke has trouble on the road here. [12:43] So they have, I mean, you talk about having some trouble. [12:47] I mean, they are really floundering. [12:50] They've lost four of the last six on the road here. [12:52] field goal percentage, 11th in field goal percentage, [12:57] and 12th in three-point field goal percentage. [13:00] Also have trouble protecting the ball 13th in turnovers here [13:04] and have trouble here guarding a three-pointer, [13:07] which Miami's heating up here. [13:09] We're going to start off the week. [13:10] I don't know if we've done this a long, long time. [13:14] Level three lock on a Monday. [13:16] Miami Hurricanes lay the three-and-a-half points [13:19] as they take on and defeat the hated Duke Blue Devils.”
MIA 81, DUKE 59 — Miami blew out Duke 81-59, a 22-point margin that easily covers Miami -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“How about the Utah Jazz and the Atlanta Hawks? [3:11] The Jazz are 27 and 26. [3:13] The Hawks come into this one 26 and 26. [3:17] FanDuel.com line on this one. [3:18] the Jazz minus one minus one twelve with the take back being plus one minus one oh wait for the Hawks Break this one down for us Lee Yeah there a lot of teams you know that are sitting there anywhere from like 6 to 10 6 to 12 right now as far as the playoffs are concerned [3:34] And so big card here today, eight game card in the NBA and some games that I mean, some teams need to get moving here. [3:43] Jazz here opened up as a two-point favorite, moved down a little bit, [3:49] and there's money coming in on Atlanta. [3:51] Atlanta, they're right there also. [3:53] Utah 27-26, Atlanta 26-26 here. [4:00] Atlanta coming off a 132-100, just they took apart Phoenix on the road [4:08] on Wednesday night here, and they're finally healthy here. [4:10] So the changes here this year, I think two different guys. [4:15] DeJounte Murray, this guy put up 40 points on Portland. [4:20] Last Monday had 21 against Phoenix before he got taken out. [4:24] Trey Young did miss the Trailblazer game, but he had 20 points and 12 assists. [4:29] But I think DeJounte Murray, the addition of him, has been huge here. [4:34] They just have so many weapons. [4:35] And I'm going to give you an under-the-radar guy cue. [4:38] this guy might end up being an all-star pretty soon in a couple years. [4:43] A.J. Griffin from Duke. [4:46] So here's a guy no one talks about. [4:50] And all of a sudden, seven of the last nine games, [4:53] they played him more than 20 minutes. [4:55] And what has he done? [4:57] Well, last 10 games, he's 67% from three-point land. [5:04] That's on 30 attempts. [5:05] We're not talking about like eight or 10 attempts. [5:07] That's on 30 attempts, and he's hit every single free throw. [5:13] Here's a guy that's become a weapon. [5:15] They just have so many weapons out there, and Utah, [5:18] they need to score from three-point land. [5:21] That's how they operate here, just sitting there at 500 here. [5:26] Mike Conley's played better of late here, [5:29] but they just don't have guys that can drive to the basket here. [5:32] So people don't realize this, but the Atlanta Hawks, number four in three-point defense here. [5:39] So it's about matchups here. [5:41] Atlanta, weapons coming to their own. [5:43] They're healthy. [5:44] Utah needs a score from three. [5:46] And Atlanta, believe it or not, defends a three-point line as well as anyone in the league here. [5:53] Wrong team favorite. [5:54] We're going to go with the Atlanta Hawks in Salt Lake City tonight. [5:57] Boom, there it is right there. [5:59] ATL in Salt Lake right there. [6:01] The Hawks taking on the Jazz right there. [6:03] That's our first WTF. [6:05] Wrong team favorite. [6:06] Talking about a couple teams that are, you know, very, very similar when it comes to record. [6:10] That's getting us started right there. [6:11] Again, FanDuel.com live for that one. [6:13] Jazz minus one, minus 112 versus the Hawks with the take back being plus one, minus 108.”
ATL 115, UTA 108 — Atlanta beat Utah 115-108 outright, which also covers the Hawks +1 (ESPN box score).
“22nd ranked San Diego State going up against Boise State. [6:33] This is a Mountain West showdown. [6:34] They're both tied for the lead. [6:36] In the Mountain West, San Diego State comes in at 17-5. [6:39] Boise State is 18-5. [6:41] FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:42] San Diego State minus 5 minus 120 First Boise State with the take back being plus 5 minus 102 Break this one down for us Lee Wow this is a big game here These two teams are tied for the lead I think they just that much better than the other teams in the Mountain West [6:58] Mountain West has been surprisingly much stronger than anticipated this year. [7:04] So what we have here is San Diego State at home, and they need to win this game. [7:09] I'm looking at the Boise State schedule the rest of the way, [7:12] and they have the easier schedule and they get to host, that's right, San Diego State later on. [7:20] So big, big game here. [7:22] I think the pressure's on them here. [7:24] Blancos, this is a team that does some things really well. [7:28] They rebound well. [7:30] They're 5.2 rebounds more per game than their opponent, which is important in a close game here. [7:38] uh also uh offensive efficiency they get the job done here 42nd also from three-point land [7:47] San Diego State you're thinking oh okay well you know they're ranked 22nd uh they should be the [7:54] better team here well uh they're not in the top 100 as far as scoring offense they are barely in [8:01] the top 100 in three throws and rebounding 167 they only average 32.3 rebounds here i think their [8:14] entire cast needs to play well for them to cover this game yeah could they win it but a five and [8:19] a half point spread here i think matt bradley darian trammell lamont butler and also keisha [8:26] johnson are going to have to play well at least three of the four for them to have a chance here [8:30] Also, not get many steals, not sharing the ball, barely top 100 in assists, 99th there. [8:39] So, Blancos, 4-0 against the spread the last four games versus teams with winning percentage above 600. [8:46] Also, the underdog is 4-0 against the spread the last four times these two teams have met here. [8:53] Give me the points here. [8:55] Wrong team favored. [8:57] Just like in football, you don't doubt Boise State getting points. [9:01] Boise State plus five and a half at San Diego State tonight.”
SDSU 72, BOIS 52 — San Diego State routed Boise State 72-52; the Broncos lost by 20, missing the +5.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“Will there be a defensive or special teams touchdown in Super Bowl 57? [10:02] If you believe so, FanDuel.com line on that is minus 140 for no. [10:07] If you believe it will yes it plus 260 Again defensive or special teams touchdown If no it minus 340 If yes plus 260 Lee break this down for us All right So the public loves to bet three things in the [10:21] Super Bowl. They love to bet will to be a touchdown more than 50 or 60 yards. Love it. [10:28] Usually doesn't happen. They love to bet safeties. Will there be a safety? Because there's a big [10:33] payoff. Usually like 8, 10 or 12 to 1. Usually doesn't happen. I think there's been only [10:38] two in the entire history of the NFL, and they also love to bet there'll be a defensive [10:45] or special teams touchdown. [10:47] I don't see it. [10:47] I think you've got two top-tier quarterbacks. [10:50] I don't think we're going to see any pick sixes or quarterbacks that get blindsided. [10:54] There's no Carson Wentz or Matt Ryan in the game here. [10:57] So will there be a defensive or special teams touchdown if you want to bet yes? [11:03] Hey, the payoff's only plus 160. [11:06] I say no. [11:07] this is a level three lock to end the week here i'm saying no minus 340 these two teams might go [11:14] back and forth against each other really good quarterbacks strong defenses but no defensive [11:20] or special teams touchdown minus 340 you know it's so funny because you talk about the public [11:27] loves to bet uh all these different categories including a defensive or special teams touchdown [11:31] and all i keep thinking is yeah yeah yeah there's got to be one there's got to be one right so it's [11:36] It's so funny that you mentioned that because that's exactly where I was. [11:39] I was like, yes, it's going to happen, right? [11:40] Okay, who's going to get the pick six? [11:42] Who's going to get the scoop and score? [11:44] Who's going to make a special teams return? [11:45] And Lee said, nah, I don't see it. [11:48] So there you go. [11:49] That just proved your point right there. [11:51] So, again, FanDuel.com line on that one. [11:53] Defensive or special teams touchdown, no, minus 340, yes, plus 260.”
KC 38, PHI 35 — Kansas City's Nick Bolton returned a Jalen Hurts fumble 36 yards for a touchdown in Super Bowl LVII, so a defensive/special-teams touchdown did occur, busting the 'No' side (Wikipedia box score summary, ESPN unreachable).
“Let's start things off with the blowout special, a little NBA action. [3:36] The Denver Nuggets against my Golden State Warriors. [3:39] The Nuggets, 35-16. [3:42] The Warriors, 26-25. [3:43] 25. It's first versus seventh. [3:46] FanDuel.com live for this one. [3:48] The Nuggets minus 11.5 versus the Warriors. [3:50] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [3:51] Wow. I mean, the playoffs started today during the play-in tournament. [3:55] Golden State. Can you believe that? [3:56] Wow. [3:56] Golden State would be seventh. Phoenix would be eighth. [4:01] I think eventually things are going to work out. [4:03] They'll be in both teams in the top six. [4:05] But right now, it's not happening. [4:08] Golden State played a couple nights ago in Minnesota. [4:11] And what happened Well lost in overtime and only scored four points in overtime I have a real good feeling we going to see three players sit here [4:22] and three big ones. [4:24] I think Klay Thompson is going to sit. [4:26] I think Andrew Wiggins is going to sit. [4:29] And I also think Steph Curry is going to sit. [4:31] So even if two of the three sit, I think they're in trouble here. [4:35] Hey, have they pulled off some miraculous games? [4:38] Yeah, it happens 20%, 30% of the time. [4:40] their bench guys come out and play hard and play great, [4:44] but they're going to be up against it here. [4:47] And people don't realize this, [4:49] but the Denver Nuggets have dominated this series. [4:53] Yep. [4:54] They've covered eight of the last 12 there. [4:57] Eight, three, and one against the spread. [4:59] You talk about some guys that are hot, they're loaded, [5:03] their top two guys are just hitting everything left and right. [5:07] Jokic, yep. [5:08] Well, he's dominating the league. [5:10] 26.5 points per game, 11.7 boards per game, and 11.8 assists per game. [5:18] I don't think we've ever seen that from a big guy here. [5:22] Jamal Murray, what has he done? [5:25] Last game he scored 32 and also had seven triples. [5:29] Aaron Gordon even had 15 points. [5:32] He was plus 22 in his net rating in that game. [5:34] So this is a team that's red hot. [5:37] They love to send a message to Golden State here. [5:41] Blowout special on Thursday here in the NBA. [5:45] Your Golden State Warriors are going down in a big-time way here. [5:49] I'm taking the Denver Nuggets. [5:51] This could be a 25, 30-point burial. [5:53] Oh, there it is. [5:54] That's a massive blowout. [5:55] And, yeah, you sit guys like that, like a Klay Thompson, [5:59] Steph Curry, and Andrew Wiggins. [6:00] That's going to happen. [6:01] Oh, and another thing here, I think this line's going to go up. [6:05] And if we hear of at least two, maybe all three out, [6:09] this line could balloon up to 13.5, 14, maybe even 15 points. [6:14] So it was a benefit of listening to the show as early as possible. [6:19] If you're listening in your lunch break, get this game in now. [6:22] You want to play it as soon as possible. [6:24] Boom, there it is right there. [6:25] Again, FanDuel.com, live for this one. [6:27] The Nuggets minus 11.5 versus the Warriors. [6:30] Get on it ASAP.”
DEN 134, GSW 117 — Denver crushed Golden State 134-117, a 17-point margin that clears the -11.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're going to turn our attention to Super Bowl 57, [7:37] and who will score the first touchdown? [7:40] And we're going to talk about Travis Kelsey and Miles Sanders. [7:43] FanDuel.com line on this one. [7:44] Who will score the first touchdown? [7:46] Travis Kelsey, Miles Sanders, plus 320. [7:48] This is an either or, Lee. [7:49] Break this one down for us. [7:51] Yeah, it is, and I think a lot of people are going to make a wager here, [7:56] and everyone loves the first touchdown. [7:58] Everyone's fired up about the commercials. [8:01] Even people who aren't into football, their attention will be held. [8:05] Usually, I think the over-under on the time to score the first touchdown is usually six, seven, eight minutes. [8:11] And a lot of people are going to bet Jalen Hurts here. [8:14] And I like Jalen Hurts. [8:16] There's a good chance he can score. [8:18] But I have a feeling that they are going to try to pound the football early in Austin early. [8:25] And if that the case I going to usually you can just wager on one And this is what I like about all these Super Bowl wagers They giving you more and different opportunities to wager on the Super Bowl There so many guys that can score [8:41] Great quarterbacks that run the football. [8:44] Running backs. [8:45] Tight ends. [8:46] Also, wide receivers. [8:48] Even special teams players. [8:51] So why not pick two? [8:53] I'm going to go with Miles Sanders. [8:55] I think that they want to run the football early and often. [8:58] and then once they run the football, then things will open up. [9:03] But once they get inside the 10, easy way to score here is just use that dominant running game. [9:09] And then on the other side, I think got the best tight end in the game here, [9:13] and KC's by far best receiving threat, Travis Kelsey. [9:17] I'm going to play Travis Kelsey and Miles Sanders plus 320. [9:21] Either one of them scores the first touchdown. [9:24] Bet a little. [9:24] Win a whole lot.”
Jalen Hurts scored Super Bowl LVII's first touchdown on a 1-yard 'Tush Push' run; neither Travis Kelce nor Miles Sanders scored it (Wikipedia box score summary, ESPN unreachable). (Jalen Hurts, 1-yd rushing TD (first score of the game))
“We'll turn our attention to the UFC. [9:59] How about Sergei, the polar bear, Spivak, going up against Derek, the black beast, Lewis. [10:04] Talked about him quite a bit on the show. [10:06] The polar bear comes in at 15-3. [10:08] The black beast is 26-10. [10:10] FanDuel.com line on this one. [10:12] Sergei, the polar bear, Spivak, minus 240 versus the black beast with the take back being plus 195. [10:18] But we're actually going to roll with the black beast to win by KO or TKO plus 240. [10:23] Break this one down for us, Lee. [10:24] All right, so Black Beast has been in the UFC for a long, long time, all the way back since 2014. [10:33] And you talk about fighting some good fighters. [10:37] Back in 2017, he started fighting the best of the best. [10:41] He fought Travis Brown, Marcin Tybur, the former champion, Francis Ngannou, and beat him. [10:49] He also beat Alexander Volkov by KO. [10:54] He beat Curtis Blades, KO. [10:58] Chris Dalkhouse, KO. [11:01] Lost a couple fights of late. [11:02] That's why the odds are down here. [11:04] Sergei Pavlich lost to him in the first round. [11:08] Kai Tavasa lost to him in the second round, both by KO. [11:13] This guy is all or nothing. [11:16] He's 37 years old. [11:17] I still think he has something here, but it's a five-round fight. [11:21] He's not lasting five rounds, just trading punches. [11:24] Someone's going down here. [11:26] So I still think he's got something left at 37. [11:30] And Spivak, up-and-coming guy, comes from Ukraine, tough guy, 15-3 overall. [11:38] He is on a winning streak, won his last two against Sakai, Augusto Sakai, [11:43] and also Greg Hardy, which, you know, former football player, not much of a fighter, [11:48] but he lost before that to Tom Espinall and also lost to Marcin Tybur and Walt Harrison. [11:56] Two of his last three, how did he lose? KO. [12:01] So I think we're going to take a run here and we're going to go with the Black Beast by KO, TKO, plus 240. [12:10] Bet a little, win a whole lot. [12:12] Get your seat early here for the main fight here on fight night here for the UFC on Saturday night [12:21] because this one's not going past the second round.”
Serghei Spivac submitted Derrick Lewis via arm-triangle choke in round 1; Lewis did not win by KO/TKO (or at all) (Wikipedia fight results, ESPN/UFC.com unreachable).
“UAB going up against 19th-ranked Florida Atlantic. [13:05] We talked about them quite a bit on the show. [13:07] UAB is 15-7. [13:09] Florida Atlantic is 21-1. [13:12] FanDuel.com line on this one. [13:14] UAB minus 1.5 minus 104. [13:16] with the take back being plus one and a half minus 118. [13:20] Break this one down for us, Lee. [13:21] Yeah, so everyone keeps waiting for Ford Atlantic to lose. [13:24] They're ranked 19th in the country. [13:26] They're on an incredible 20-game winning streak. [13:30] And even though this game is not in the borough, [13:33] this is a team that's on a roll. [13:35] They got guys that can score, score, and score some more. [13:38] In fact, how prolific are they scoring? [13:42] Well, it's the team that just keeps putting it up. [13:46] They're averaging over 76 points per game, top 20 in the country. [13:52] They play good defense, ranked 39th in the country here. [13:56] They score almost 10 more points per game than UAB. [14:00] Now, a lot of people look at the first game, they'll say, [14:02] Florida Atlantic won the game by two points. [14:04] You know, they're due to lose, they're playing at UAB. [14:08] But they were the better team in that game. [14:10] This is a team that can not only score in half-court offense, [14:14] if they get the ball and they can run, they'll get a two-on-one, a three-on-one, [14:20] and they score almost every single time. [14:22] So love a couple of their guys on this team. [14:26] So who do I love here? [14:28] Well, it's Brandon Weatherspoon. [14:31] He is on a roll as the guy that's putting up almost 20 points per game here. [14:36] So I think this is a team that just really has no weaknesses in this conference, [14:41] just that much better than every other team in the conference here. [14:46] I think we're going to go with a level two lock on Thursday. [14:51] Florida Atlantic, they win their 21st straight game. [14:55] Who knows, they might even be ranked in the top 15 next week. [14:59] They take care of UAB and move the winning streak to 21 straight.”
UAB 86, FAU 77 — UAB beat Florida Atlantic 86-77; the Owls lost outright, missing the +1.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“So let's go to the NBA, the Washington Wizards, and the Detroit Pistons. [5:54] The Wizards, they're 24-26. [5:57] The Pistons are 13-39. [5:59] They're not the bad boys except for, well, they're the bad boys. [6:02] Just not a very good team. [6:04] FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:06] Wizards minus six, minus 108 versus the Pistons with the take back being plus six, minus 114. [6:11] Break this down for us, Lee. [6:12] Yeah, so I picked the Washington Wizards in their last game when they went to San Antonio. [6:18] And what a road trip has it been. [6:20] Usually teams that are under 500, they get blasted on the road trip and rarely have winning records. [6:27] What have they done? [6:28] They went to Dallas and won. [6:31] They went to Houston and won. [6:33] They went to New Orleans and won and then blasted San Antonio by 21 points. [6:38] Now this is the last game of the road trip. [6:42] And sometimes, you know, you don't want to go against teams that are hot, [6:48] but I think this is the right time. [6:50] I'm watching this Washington team, and I'm seeing some good play [6:55] and some up-and-down play. [6:56] And Christian Porzingis has been up and down of late. [6:59] So he has some good games, but I'm just, you know, [7:04] this 27-year-old center has converted on less than 40% of his field goals [7:09] in two of the last three games. [7:11] Bradley Beal's been fine, you know, scoring in the low 20s, [7:15] but I'm not seeing the explosiveness that he had from last year. [7:19] Kyle Kuzma's probably been their best guy of late, [7:22] but I'm watching this Detroit team, and Detroit, I think, is going to – [7:28] You usually don't want to take bad teams on the road, [7:30] but when they're at home, sometimes you get some good performances. [7:34] And I thought that they had a shot against Houston and blew it 117-114. [7:39] I think they're going to come back and they're going to play hard here. [7:42] Sadiq Bey connecting on over 40% of his three-pointers [7:47] in two of the last three games. [7:49] Also like Killian Hayes off the bench, a kid who didn't go to college, [7:53] but 21-year-old point guard. [7:55] he's playing really well of late here [7:59] hitting his threes [8:00] distributing the ball [8:02] playing better defense [8:03] sometimes it kicks in [8:04] one point we know they're playing without Cade Cunningham [8:07] and that has really affected them on the road [8:10] just don't have that [8:11] that extra punch here [8:12] but just think that Washington [8:14] you know [8:15] not a great offensive team [8:18] kind of [8:18] you know bottom 10 [8:20] along with Detroit [8:21] I think it's a game that comes down to the last couple possessions here [8:24] We're going to take the Detroit Pistons plus the six points here. [8:29] Hidden gem against the Washington Wizards tonight in NBA action.”
The Wizards-Pistons game scheduled for Feb 1, 2023 was postponed; ESPN's schedule lists no result for that date, so the original wager voids (ESPN team schedule).
“I like this little matchup right here. [9:12] FanDuel.com line for this one. [9:14] North Carolina minus 8.5 minus 110 versus Pitt. [9:17] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [9:18] Okay, so the ACC is a really good conference this year. [9:22] Not quite as good as the Big 12 but they have been a fun conference to watch And home court advantage really really big So we saw Clemson go down last night [9:36] They end up losing their second game in conference. [9:40] Virginia's right behind them. [9:42] And who's third? Pitt, 8-3. [9:45] Who's fourth? North Carolina at 7-3. [9:48] So first game this year, Pitt won a close game against North Carolina back in December. [9:55] But I think things are going to be different here. [9:58] I think that Pitt, one of the best home teams, crowd is crazy. [10:02] You don't think of Pitt as one of these great home court advantages, but they are. [10:06] They ended up coming back. [10:07] They had an 11-0 run in the final two minutes and 12 seconds to overcome Miami. [10:13] Now they're going to have to go on the road. [10:16] And I just think that this North Carolina team is starting to come on. [10:20] And people talk about the bias. [10:22] Oh, North Carolina. [10:23] And, you know, Duke, they get all the love from the AP voters, [10:28] all the different polls. [10:29] Well, they've won four straight games, and no one is even talking about them. [10:35] They beat North Carolina State in one of those four games. [10:39] They beat them by 11, and they beat Syracuse also last week. [10:44] So they have more than a week to get ready for this game, eight days. [10:49] I think they have the firepower starting to hit from the outside here, [10:53] hitting almost 50% in their last four games from three-point land. [10:59] They have the 34th best scoring offense. [11:03] They're just much better almost in every statistical category [11:07] against this Pitt team here on offense. [11:10] And you've got to score if you want to lay some points at home here. [11:13] So I think they're also one of the better free-throw shooting teams, [11:17] hitting almost 75% of their free throws. [11:20] So I think this is going to be really tough for Pitt here. [11:23] I think North Carolina's coming on. [11:25] 10-0 at home this year. [11:28] And this is one of those games here. [11:33] I think you're just going to see, you know, [11:35] like the only chance they really have here, Pitt, [11:37] is they've got to keep it close here. [11:40] Or maybe North Carolina gets in foul trouble. [11:43] I don't see it here. [11:44] I think you see the line here and you're like, [11:46] Oh, two teams almost the same as far as record, but home court will matter here. [11:51] And I think North Carolina is going to pull away. [11:55] I'm going to lay the points here. [11:58] Blowout special. [11:59] North Carolina Tar Heels, Tobacco Road here, big over the Pitt Panthers. [12:04] Oh, this is a good one right here. [12:05] I'm excited about this game. [12:07] AC action is a lot of fun so far this year. [12:09] These two teams are obviously both really good, [12:12] and they're going to make some nice noise in March Madness coming up. [12:15] But this one's tonight, North Carolina and Pitt. [12:18] Again, the FanDuel.com line on that one. [12:20] North Carolina minus 8.5, minus 110 versus the Pitt Panthers.”
PITT 65, UNC 64 — Pitt upset North Carolina 65-64 on the road; the Tar Heels lost outright, missing the -8.5 cover by a wide margin (ESPN box score).
“We're going to take a look at the running game. [14:04] How about Isaiah Pacheco Jarek McKinnon and Patrick Mahomes to combine for 100 rushing yards That what we looking at right there FanDuel line on that one Minus 110 for those three that three combo to have 100 rushing yards Break that one down for us Lee All right so I don usually you know pay in mind one game [14:25] and you see swings in the NFL team can rush for 150, 160 yards [14:30] and rush for 25 or 30 the next. [14:33] But I think I'm on to something here. [14:35] So in the last game, Kansas City, what did they do in the 23-20 win? [14:39] the Pacheco, Hardeman, and Mahomes, they combined, get this, for just 35 yards. [14:47] That's it, 35 yards. [14:49] Game before that, Jacksonville had a huge game. [14:53] These two, three guys, they went wild. [14:56] They ended up, Pacheco had 95, McKinnon had 25, Mahomes had eight. [15:01] So, went way over that number. [15:03] They flew over the number in the 130s. [15:05] But before that, I mean, nothing. [15:08] Vegas, nope, didn't get close. [15:11] Denver, nope, didn't get close. [15:14] Seattle, didn't get close either. [15:16] It's all the way back to the Houston game, week 15, [15:20] and they didn't do it very often. [15:21] These two guys in the running back's position, [15:24] these are complementary guys. [15:26] These are not workhorses, and I think this Eagles team is special. [15:31] They have the number one sack team. [15:33] So, remember, you lose yards on the rushing total. [15:37] also decent against the run 16th why are they 16th because teams are throwing all the time on [15:45] them so I just think that there this is a game here where Kansas City's only path to win is [15:51] throw the ball early and often they might try they'd love to establish the run and and have [15:57] 120 130 yards between these three guys I just don't think it's happening here I think this [16:02] Philadelphia Eagles defensive special. [16:05] Mahomes is going to have to throw for 340 to 370 yards here. [16:11] I'm going to take the under 100 total yards on those three players [16:16] for the Kansas City Chiefs here. [16:18] It's going to be a level three lock, and every single day from now [16:24] through the Super Bowl, I'm going to release a Super Bowl prop. [16:28] Nice. [16:28] I like it. [16:29] I like it. [16:29] All the way up, level three lock on the running game right there. [16:32] Pacheco, McKinnon, Mahomes combined for 100-plus rushing yards. [16:36] Lee Sterling took the under right there and went with the level three lock”
In Super Bowl LVII, Isiah Pacheco ran for 76 yards, Jerick McKinnon for 34, and Patrick Mahomes for 44, a combined 154 rushing yards, well over the 100-yard under (Wikipedia box score summary, ESPN unreachable). (Pacheco 76, McKinnon 34, Mahomes 44 rush yds (154 combined))
“FanDuel live for this one The Clippers minus two and a half versus Chicago Break this one down for us Lee Yeah Chicago sitting in 10th position They would barely make the play-in tournament right now if we started. They've got a couple teams right on their heels, and they can get going. They can move up to sixth, seventh place, which would certainly help them out. But do I think that they're a great team? Do I think they have any chance to win a title? No. But this is the regular season. And we talked about, you know, when you see a team shoot 60%, I want to keep riding them for a couple games, especially the next game because they're red hot. But I don't know if I've seen this in a while. Chicago in their last game had three players scored 26 or more points in regulation. DeMar DeRozan, 32 points. He did this. Zach Levine, well, he also scored 32 points. and Nick Vukovic, Nikolai Vukovic, what did he do? 26 points, 13 rebounds, and 6 assists from their center. They're getting help from the bench. I like Cody White. Kobe White is one of these great, I think, one of the really good backup guards right now in the NBA. Caruso, Alex Caruso, scoring, playing hard defense, good defense from his days back in L.A. He does the same here in Chicago. Goran Drogic, combo guard, and then also Derek Jones Jr., forward a lot of energy. So what we're seeing in the NBA is scoring. And teams go up and down the court, and they've got a lot of scoring. Do they have a lot of great defense? The Bulls, no. The Clippers, when they have everyone, and it's crunch time, they play good defense. But Kawhi Leonard didn't play in the last game. He rested. So did Paul George. Reggie Jackson is listed as questionable. He missed the last game because of an Achilles injury. He's listed as questionable for this game here. So I don't think Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are going to go all out to play defense. I think it's going to be an up-and-down game. You've got three players scoring like that and a bench here and the urgency. If they end up losing a bunch of games on this homestand, if they lose three out of four, they're going to be in deep, deep trouble. But I like the way they're playing. They beat Golden State here less than two weeks ago, beat Atlanta by double digits, and beat on Saturday an emerging Orlando team that's playing everyone tough here. I'm going to take the points here. I'm going to take the three and a half points here. Wrong team favorite. We're going to go with the Chicago Bulls at home. I think they upset the L.A. Clippers.”
LAC 108, CHI 103 — Clippers beat the Bulls 108-103; Chicago lost outright, well short of covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“The FanDuel line for this one Miami minus 3 minus 120 versus Virginia Tech with the take being plus 3 minus 102 Break this one down for us Lee Yeah it Paramount Sports Night taking all my staff and their families to the game We're going out to dinner before the game, and I think this is a perfect time to back Miami here. Miami lost their last game at Pitt. They were up eight points with two minutes and 20 seconds to go in the game. got outscored 11 to nothing to end the game three costly turnovers now i love coach laranega i think he's great but he's not great down the stretch calling plays so you got to know your coach here but i don't think it's going to come down to that virginia tech hey they won their last two games after having a really rough run they started off winless in conference play they beat duke won also their last game against Syracuse, but they have trouble on the road. You talk about a team that is not the same team. They are 3-7 in conference play here. They have trouble shooting the three-pointer, and I think they're going to have trouble against Miami's defense. Miami goes like nine deep. They have a bunch of guys that really contest three points. Miami also really good at the charity stripe, shooting over 76% from the free throw line. So let's say it's a five, seven-point game and Virginia Tech has to start fouling. I think Miami's going to knock them down here. So I think this home crowd and Miami have really been a tough combination. They're 11-0 at home this year. So we're going to back them against a Virginia Tech team that's a horrifying 0-6 on the road this year, including two losses at Boston College and at Charleston here. Blowout special. My Miami Hurricanes minus the three and a half points. They take apart Virginia Tech tonight.”
MIA 92, VT 83 — Miami beat Virginia Tech 92-83, an 9-point margin that covers Miami -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Right now, the FanDuel.com line on this one. As confusing as it is, Kansas minus 8.5, minus 104. Versus K-State with the take-back being plus 8.5, minus 118. I'm confused by it, Lee. Make this make sense. Break it down for us. So when I first saw the line, and I make a line, here's what I do when I'm trying to predict what the line will be the next day. I thought the line should have been four, four and a half. Okay, maybe they want to give home field advantage and Kansas has been really good at home in their career against Kansas State. Maybe make it five five and a half But when I saw eight and a half I like doing a double and a triple take I like are there any injuries I scouring far and wide nothing So if you watch the first game and trust me, I know Kansas state and then their home field advantage right now at Manhattan is something incredible, but I think this is a solid team. I'm watching these two teams and I really see no difference in them. Now, both teams coming off big wins, Kansas State throttled Florida. Florida was never in the game. They beat them down. And Kansas, big win at Kentucky, where they went on a run right before half and were never threatened in that game either. They won by almost double digits. But here's the problem for Kansas. There's no difference between these two teams. I think they are even. I think it's going to be another game that's going to come down to the wire. Public will look at stats and say, well, Kansas State's 3-3 on the road. But bottom line, this is a team here that plays good team defense. They rebound the ball well. They share the ball well. Seventh, that's right, seventh in the country, averaging over 17.7 assists here. I think they're battle-tested. I love their coach here. They hit free throws. So I think there's a game that's going to be decided by the final two or final three possessions here. We're going to take the eight and a half points here with the Kansas State Wildcats here. Level two lock on Tuesday.”
KU 90, KSU 78 — Kansas beat Kansas State 90-78; the Wildcats lost by 12, missing the +8.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Missouri-Kansas City is minus a half, minus 122, with the take back with South Dakota being plus one half, plus 100. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yes, Summit League battle here on Monday night, and Jack Rapids hit with, they had a road loss to Western Illinois on Saturday. The Roos defeated Denver the previous game, and it looks like on paper and records-wise even, But I don't think so here. I think South Dakota State is the better team. I think they're eager to get back playing some basketball. They lost a real disappointing game. Road loss to St. Thomas last week and then lost 81-73 in overtime on Saturday to Western Illinois. They're 6-4 in conference play, but I think they're one of the top two or three teams in the conference. You'll like this name. And their best player, Zeke Mayo. Love that for a basketball player. I think he's one of the best players in the Summit League. Sophomore guard here has scored at least 23 points in four straight games, including 27 on Saturday. Also averages over six rebounds per game. And another name, Matt Dentlinger. Matt Dentlinger, he's hit on at least 50% of his field goals in three straight games. So the team is playing well, just came up short in some tough games here. Look at this Missouri-Kansas City team here, and they just have trouble scoring here. They have really struggled here, only shooting under 44% in the last two games here, also seem to get rebounded on a consistent basis here. So I just think that, you know, you look at the rankings also, different places that rank these teams. South Dakota State ranked much, much higher here. And just think that they're going to be able to limit this Missouri-Kansas City team that only shooting 40.1% for the season. and if this line was played maybe a week, 10 days ago, South Dakota State might be favored by four or five points. Take advantage of it here. We're going to go with the Jackrabbits on the road here, Hidden Gem over Missouri-Kansas City.”
SDSU 67, UMKC 66 — South Dakota State beat Kansas City 67-66 on the road, winning outright to cover the +0.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com live for this one. Washington minus five for San Antonio. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? So, search right now, Washington would be the 10th place team. They would be in the play in tournament here. And on offense they scoring 112 points per game here Not bad Shooting over almost 48 from the field here So they can score here Kyle Kuzma leads the way here scoring 22 points per game They also shooting three much, much better of late. In fact, over the last two weeks have upped their three-point field goal percentage by over 2% here. So just think that the problems here have relied on the defensive end, but San Antonio just is not a scorer here. This is a team that 22nd most points scored per game. They only have the 18th highest shooting percentage here. And adjusted offensive ratings in the NBA. So they adjusted for turnovers, everything. They ranked 27th. So don't take care of the ball. I mean, not only turnovers, shot clock violations here. Just don't share the ball enough. Just a lot of young guys. I think they're playing for a draft pick here. So I just think that Washington's also going to control the glass here. So I'm going to take the Washington Wizards here. And I'm willing to lay the points here on the road. So a lot of people will take bad teams at home thinking, oh, they can keep it close here. Don't fall for the trap here. San Antonio, like I said, this 27th rated adjusted offensive rating is big time trouble here. Lay the points. Washington made a trade here a week ago, but they seem to really be coming together. I'm going to lay the five points here. Hidden gem. number two Washington Wizards over the San Antonio Spurs”
WAS 127, SAS 106 — Washington beat San Antonio 127-106 on the road, winning by 21 to cover the -5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Texas minus 3.5 versus Baylor Bears. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, we're taking a deep dive into basketball this week. I don't know if people realize, but hockey, just a couple games, a total of six over the first three days this week, and then they head into the NHL All break So football obviously no game this weekend So it all basketball And also starting probably Wednesday or Thursday when the totals come out when they put out all the different prop bets. And I'm expecting Vandal to have probably 400 or 500 different prop bets. I'll be able to sit through 7,500 a day and find some plays there. So I want to listen in as the week goes on. Basketball heavy, also giving out some prop plays. As we head in, we can get some good numbers heading into the Super Bowl prop plays. But love this game here. So what you have is Texas ranked 10th, 17-4. A game ahead of Baylor, who's ranked 17th, 16-5. Also in conference play, Texas 6-2, Baylor 5-3. But if you look at who they've played, both teams have played Gonzaga and beat them. but Baylor on a six game winning streak went to West Virginia one by five went to Texas Tech one by seven went to Oklahoma one by a bucket and at home took care of ranked Kansas and ranked Arkansas and then on the other side Texas beat Gonzaga but after that they don't have well maybe maybe one decent quality win versus TCU. So I think this is a team, Texas, that playing without a head coach is tough. Most people say, oh, playing at home, three and a half points, better record. But Baylor, I love the way they came back, especially the last three games. So what did they do? They were down. They trailed Arkansas 40 to 31. They came back despite shooting just 33.9%, while Arkansas, get this, shot 50.9% of their field goals. What did they do? They valued their possessions, only eight turnovers. They made Arkansas turn the ball over 15 times, also really good from the free throw line, hitting 21 to 24 shots. And this is probably going to be a close game here. I see this game coming down probably to one or two possessions here. I'm going with a level two lock to start the week here. Baylor Bears plus three and a half as they take on the Texas Longhorns and maybe knock them off.”
TEX 76, BAY 71 — Texas beat Baylor 76-71; Baylor lost by 5, short of the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. New Mexico minus 12 and a half versus Air Force. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay Air Force has improved I played them quite a few times in November and December but January is a different story They were on a roll and the last couple games they just were not in it They lost 70-60 as a 9.5-point underdog San Diego State, and then three days later, they got blown out by San Jose State, 82-52. They shot four for 22 from three-point land, and I think that they've got some problems now. They're young in the backcourt, and that spells trouble against a New Mexico team that can score. So they've got New Mexico. They've got three guys that average over 15.5 points per game, led by Jamal Mashburn Jr., who I used to saw play here up through his 11th grade year, and then I think he went to prep school for his senior year. He leads New Mexico in scoring over 19 points per game and over 42.5% shooting from three-point land, not far behind at 19 points. And Jamal Mashburn Jr. has scored 19 points or more in nine straight games. Jalen House averaging almost 19 points a game and 4.8 assists per game. And then Morris Deasy averaging over 15.5 points and 8.5 rebounds. So they've got three guys that can get the job done at any time. They're ranked 25th right now. In fact, they rank in the top 50 in almost every major statistical offensive category here. They also can defend the three-point line, and I think that's the only way that Air Force can stay in it here, and Air Force has a real problem shooting three points. So I'm taking New Mexico here in another really tough place to play, the pit, notoriously. A lot of teams have gone down there. They think, oh, just another arena, just a made-up name. And, well, wait until Air Force experience it with this young class here. I like New Mexico here. Hidden gem over the Flyboys.”
UNM 81, AF 73 — New Mexico beat Air Force 81-73, winning by 8, short of the -12.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line for this one. Memphis minus three versus Minnesota. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so I like playing good teams off losses. And this Memphis team sitting here second in the conference, two and a half games back, they want to get home court advantage for the playoffs. They want to be the number one seed. And they also have a player that is upset. Well, you know what? Probably pissed off, to be honest with you. John Morant is not going to be in the starting lineup here for the All game I think he expects it I think he deserves it I'm not saying he is the greatest player in the NBA, but I certainly think he's in the top five somehow in the Western Conference. Averaging 27.3 points per game. Get this, for six, two guys averaging five and a half rebounds and eight assists. Also averaging a steal per game here. I think he's incredible here, and when he found out the news, wasn't too happy about it here. Team that ranks in the top ten in almost every major offensive statistical category against a team that ranks in the bottom half in almost every defensive statistical category. This Minnesota team, I just don't think they have the leadership here. I don't think they have enough three-point shooting. and then also Memphis, once they get in the lane, they score. They get the job done here. So I'm going to be playing Memphis big here. You only have to lay three points. I had put this line probably in the five-point range, so I think this is a game you hammer here. Blow out special, Memphis Grizzlies over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night.”
MIN 111, MEM 100 — Minnesota beat Memphis 111-100; Grizzlies lost outright, busting the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com live for this one. And the Eagles minus 2.5, minus 115 for San Francisco. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so a lot of offensive weapons in all four games here on all four teams. And I just think the difference here in this game, believe it or not, is going to be defense. Philadelphia, how they match up against San Francisco is how I think the game is going to be won. They had 26 more sacks than San Francisco. unless San Francisco gets pressure on Hertz, I think they're in trouble here. They have the better pass rush. They have the better pass rush depth. They were number one in pass defense. Here's a name no one talks about. C.J. Gardner Johnson. He is tied for the league, league, and interceptions with six, and he missed five games here. So 49ers, in my opinion, they're average on the back end here. I think they're going to have trouble against the Philadelphia receiving core here. Question here also going into the playoffs was is hurts a hundred percent. And I think after watching that first playoff game, I say, yes, they were vanilla the last couple of weeks when he wasn't playing. So you can judge them by that at all He looked incredible running in throwing the football here 49ers maybe helped a little bit by getting all those turnovers against a lot of really weak defenses and weaker quarterbacks. In their run, they were plus positive turnover in the last 10 games. So I think that they're going to have to get turnovers to win this game. Brock Purdy under center here. He's going up against by far the best defense he's seen all season. and I think it's going to take someone like a Patrick Mahomes or a Joe Burrow to beat this Eagles team. So I don't think that they're going down the birds here. They're playing at home. They also, talking about this pass rush, four players with 10-plus sacks. I don't know if that's ever been done. I was able to find the stat on that, but can't remember any team ever having that here. And even though Brock Cody, 7-0 is a starter this year, I think he's going down here. I think home field advantage matters in this game here. And I think it's the Birds are a team with no weakness right now. So I'm going to take the Philadelphia Eagles here over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Level three lock all the way up on Friday.”
PHI 31, SF 7 — Philadelphia beat San Francisco 31-7 in the NFC Championship, winning by 24 to cover the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. FAU minus 8.5 minus 118 versus Middle Tennessee State. Break this one down for us, Lee. Look at you knowing the names of these arenas. Because you're the college basketball aficionado. And I've actually been there. And thinking I'm going to try to get up there tonight to see this game. It's about a little over an hour away from me. A friend of mine has some tickets if I want to hit up that way. And let me tell you something. It is a treat. It like one of these old high school arenas where one side they literally roll out the bleachers they all wood You don sit in regular seats You sit on the bench and you kick the bench and it is loud in there They pack the house 3,200. They sell out every single conference game. They show up early, their fans do, and they're ranked 21st, 19-1, running away with a Conference USA 9-0 record. Right now, Middle Tennessee, pretty decent, 13-7, 6-3 in the Conference USA. Owls have won 18 straight games, looking to make it 19 in a row at home. And, boy, like I said, are they tough at home. Middle Tennessee had a big game last game. Watched their game against Louisiana Tech. They won 68-51. they shot 52 percent from the field 40 over 47 percent from behind the arc and even hit over 87 percent of their free throws they also had 11 steals in the game Louisiana Tech is just not good they held Louisiana Tech to shooting just 38 percent of from the field in a abysmal 14 percent from three-point land. So I don't see that happening again. I don't see them getting double-digit steals. Here's what I like about this FAU team. They're really good in transition. They get to their spots. Their coach knows where these kids shoot the best, and they get a lot of three-on-twos, four-on-three breaks. And when they do that, they're going to score early and often, and they play 10 players. They don't have a lot of guys that average 18, 20 points every year. They come at you in waves. They substitute every two and a half to three minutes. Very few teams play 10 players in every single game, and they do it consistently. So I'm not saying Middle Tennessee is bad, but they have no idea what they're headed into here. We're going to lay the points here. Hidden gem, FAU in the borough over the Middle Tennessee State Raiders.”
FAU 85, MTSU 67 — FAU beat Middle Tennessee 85-67 at home, winning by 18 to cover the -8.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. UCLA minus four and a half versus USC. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so they played each other on January 5th. And remember watching this game was at UCLA. They won 60-58. And this is a hard-fought game. USC slowed down the pace. More of a defensive team. They just did not allow any points in transition. Thought they did a decent job defending. Where they got hurt was on the glass. They had some big-time troubles on the offensive glass and still only lost that game by, just like I said, two points. So this is a conference here where five teams, UCLA lost their last game at Arizona. Five teams are between 8-1 and 6-3. The only team I don't know if they belong is Utah, but not much difference between these two teams here. USC is 4-0 against the spread in the last four home games. He actually also 7 against the spread in the last eight games against the team with a winning straight record So I think they know how to play him here Getting four and a half points is a lot here This is a team that they can get any type of scoring from a third option Boogie Ellis leads the team with 15.6 points per game. Drew Peterson averages almost seven rebounds a game. They get anything from their backcourt and the third guy. I think they're going to be in good shape here. Like I said, in that first game, they allowed 16 offensive rebounds. I think they keep it under 10 here in that game. Also, UCLA's got some problems as far as injuries. Amari Bailey missed the Arizona game with a foot injury. His status is in doubt for this game. So home court, just so important conference games here where there's going to be a huge crowd here. So four and a half points. If the line was a pick-em, hey, we might even, you know, think about taking UCLA. But getting four and a half at home, I think it's the right side here. wrong team favored in the battle of the city of angels here we're going with the usc trojans over the ucla bears”
USC 77, UCLA 64 — USC beat UCLA 77-64, winning by 13 to cover the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. KC minus one, minus 106 for Cincinnati with the take back being plus one, minus 114. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right. So both these games are fabulous. And you can make a case for any one of these four teams to end up in the Super Bowl. That's why I think it's so fun. And I don't think we've ever seen two games where both teams are on both sides of the conference. We're getting the best team. And also, with a break or two, they can win the game. But I'm going to give you my strongest of the two plays here. And I think it's the Cincinnati-Kansas City game. So, I think I'm pretty familiar with high ankle sprains. Had won my junior year in high school and had to play the following week against a top team. And I can tell you, I was about 65%, 70%. You can do whatever you want. You can ice it all day long. You can keep it up. And I did everything. I was limited. I was, you know, some people, I don't know if you know this, Q, some people were comparing me to Patrick Mahomes. Did you know that? I did not. I did not. And they said, yeah, they said he's no Patrick Mahomes. I heard that. So I had some pretty decent capability, but couldn't run much at all that game. and he only throws the ball probably about 35, 40 yards farther and harder than I do. But other than that, similarities. Also, he's a little taller than I am. But I know what he's going through. And he does have a good offensive line. I love their offensive system. Andy Reid at times can be great and sometimes has problems. But here's what I think they're going to do. I think they're going to play a lot of 12 personnel. What that is, is one back and two tight ends. Jacksonville did not employ the right blitzes. They needed to come after McCombs, in my opinion, and force him to throw to other people. I mean, Travis Kelsey, I mean, they were thrown to him, it seemed like, almost every single play. So they're going to have to limit him. Most of the other guys really don scare me a whole lot here So I think with a week to prepare it going to help Kansas City defense and they playing at a really high level here I think they going to be able to limit those third and fives third and eight third and nines where he's able to scamper for first downs, and that could keep the Chiefs' offensive scoring down here. The Chiefs here, at one point we're getting a couple points, but that's gone now here. I think the public thinks that Mahomes is going to be 80% to 90%, so I don't see that here. And the Bengals have beaten the Chiefs the last three times here. So scores have been close, three points each time, one game in overtime here. I like what the Bengals did last week. I was a little afraid of them back in the last week with three offensive linemen out, but they ran the ball 27 times for 138 yards here. They had 30 first downs here. Defense has not given up a touchdown here in the second half of a game for almost half the season here. And just feel that the Bengals, I think they're the better team. Joe Burrow. Yeah, we talked about playing in the Burrow with the Ls tonight. Joe Burrow is my guy here. And just think that the Chiefs 1-3 straight up at home as an underdog since 2018. I think it is going to be a cold, cold night here for Kansas City's Chief fans here. I'm picking the Cincinnati Bengals here, 28-24. Level 2 lock.”
KC 23, CIN 20 — Kansas City beat Cincinnati 23-20 in the AFC Championship; Bengals lost outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one, Texas Tech minus 3.5 versus West Virginia. Lee, break this one down for us. Yeah, these two teams are really struggling right now and need a win bet. I mean, I don't think we ever predicted. I mean, most people didn't predict these teams to be in the top three or top four in the conference, but not one win combined at this point in the season. So in the last game, what happened was West Virginia led by two at half to Texas. Couldn't keep it. They were outscored 43-33 in the second half. But the biggest problem was they committed 20 turnovers. That's right, 20 turnovers. They can score. West Virginia, they're averaging 77 points per game on 46.5% field goal percentage. also plus .29 rebounds per game, and that's pretty impressive here. This Texas Tech team can't shoot. Latest game, shot 32.4% from the field, 7 for 29 from three-point land. That's 24.1% here. So what we have is we have one team here that can shoot and rebound, has lost some close games, has played a tough schedule. The Red Raiders, 2-13-1 against the spread. Their last 16 games versus teams with winning straight-up records here. I'm putting my money here on who I think is the better coach, Bob Huggy Bear Huggins here in this spot here. So we'll go with the team I think that can correct the turnover problem in one game and generally dominates the boards. A little bit better offense here. hidden gem West Virginia Mountaineers plus the points and Texas Tech tonight”
WVU 76, TTU 61 — West Virginia beat Texas Tech 76-61 on the road, winning outright to cover the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com live for this one. The Maple Leafs, minus 164 versus the Rangers with the take back being plus 136. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, the Rangers were a very flawed team last season and even early this year, but their goaltending covered for a lot of those mistakes on a nightly basis. This season, head coach Gerard Gallant here has his team operating a little bit differently. They were below .500 in the first 26 games when they lost to the Blackhawks 5-2. But in that game, their captain, Jacob Trova, got into a fight, then tossed his helmet and screamed at his entire bench before walking off the ice. Apparently, the team viewed that as a motivational point because they're now 15-4-2 in the last 21 games since then, and the entire atmosphere around the team feels totally different right now. They're hitting, they're making things difficult for opponents in the neutral zone, and they're finally playing some responsible defensive hockey ranking eighth best in shots allowed per game It not going to be easy tonight against our Toronto team that has the second best home record in the league But there are a couple things of note about this matchup. One, the Rangers are in the midst of a seven-game stretch where tonight is the only road game. It's not a real long commute here to Toronto. And this can be a get-up game for teams here, especially playing well when they know that they have another five straight games in New York City coming up. This is the second time here the Rangers have been in this situation and done well. They have historically done well. New York against Toronto, 12-5 in the last 17 head-to-head matchups between these two. and four of the last five wins have come by multiple goals. So I think this Rangers group is picking things up at the perfect time. Bet low on them here. It might be a real close one. This is going to be one you're going to have to probably follow until the end here. Sorry to say that, but I think they've got a good chance to pull it out here. Wrong team favorite. New York Rangers money line plus 136 over Toronto.”
TOR 3, NYR 2 — Toronto beat the New York Rangers 3-2; Rangers lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line for this one. The Tigers minus 4.5 versus the Aggies. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so the Aggies had a lot of high expectations coming into the season. They went just 6-5, though, through the first 11 games. they were upset by Murray State, Wofford, and also had a loss to Colorado and Boise State. So they're trying to get things back. They ended up going on a nice run and then lost after losing quite a few games and winning quite a few games on the road to Kentucky on Saturday. But prior to that seven-game winning streak, there were some things that concerned me. And they're going to go up against a team here in Auburn ranked 15th in the country. Auburn not a great three point shooting team but they very very long So they rank number two in defense and the paint and also top ten in defense defending the three shot here So this Texas A&M team here likes to score in the paint. They're top ten in scoring in the paint, but when you've got a defense, that's good playing and is long in the paint. It's going to be really, really tough here for Texas A&M. I was backing Texas A&M for a long, long time here during that run. But sometimes that one loss can derail you, and you just continue to have problems here. Playing at Auburn, a tough, tough place here. So this line opened up at 6-1⁄2 here. It's down to 4-1⁄2. We're going to go after the line now. I think it's a really advantageous line here. Didn't like the way that Texas A&M finished the game out against Kentucky here. So they've got one guy here, Wade Taylor. He needs to score for them to be successful, and he didn't look right in the last game here. So with a team here that their strength is to score in the paint, they're 52.6% on those two-point shots here against a team that really is long and is going to give them problems. I think we're going to go here with a blowout special, and the SEC here lay the 4.5, number 15th ranked, Auburn keeps rolling here over Texas A&M.”
TAMU 79, AUB 63 — Texas A&M beat Auburn 79-63; Auburn lost outright, busting the -4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The FanDuel.com line on this one. Kentucky minus 5.5, minus 104 versus Vandy. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Kentucky playing some good basketball. Watch their game against Texas A&M on Saturday. They can score 76.1 points per game this year. Puts them 82nd. Usually they're in the top 30. They are improving there. pulling down 39.5 rebounds per game, which ranks them 22nd. They dish out 16.3 assists per game, which ranks them 24th. But the defense, not quite there yet. 118th in the nation in scoring defense, lying over 67 points a game here. I thought that they get help a lot at home playing at Kentucky. I think some of the officials maybe get intimidated. It is a tough place to play. You see that at Kentucky. You see it at Duke. They seem to get the home calls more than almost any school, and they pulled away of late in that Texas A&M game. Vanderbilt, an interesting team here. So I really like Jerry Steckhouse. I think that they have a coaching advantage in this game over John Calipari calls really good plays coming out of the timeouts. I think he gets the most out of their talent. They won on the road against Georgia. They have proved they can play on the road. But at home, I think they have one of the best home court advantages. It's a really funky court. The benches aren't on the court. You have to, like, step down to it. It's a real weird shooting background. I've been off the court, and I don't know if I'd want to play there. It would probably take me plenty of time to adjust to that. So, as we know, Kentucky, a lot of kids come into their program. They're one and done. This Vanderbilt team, right there. They pull down almost 38 rebounds per game, average 12.2 assists per game here. So I like the way they share the ball. Their only real weakness is shooting free throws. They're right in the middle of almost every category. They shoot only 71.3 free throws. But it's probably going to be a game where they might be ahead by a little, playing from behind. That more is if a line is like one, two, three, where free throws come into matter late in the game here. So I think their three-point shooting, which is now up to 33.1, knocking down 8.23-point field goals per game is going to be the difference in this game here. Home court advantage, better coach here. I think the line's a little too high here, five-and-a-half points here. We're going to go with our wrong team favorite. I like Vanderbilt. I think they keep this close and maybe pull off the outright upset against Kentucky and knock off John Calipari's big boys.”
UK 69, VANDY 53 — Kentucky beat Vanderbilt 69-53; Vanderbilt lost by 16, busting the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel line for this one The Red Wings money line minus 144 versus San Jose Break this one down for us Lee Yeah the San Jose Sharks seem to be actively tanking for the number one overall pick right now in my opinion They're fourth worst in their conference overall. Both conferences have the fifth worst record, but they keep losing like this. They're going to be in the top two, top three at the end of the season here. So Detroit Red Wings have gone the other way. They're in the middle of a rebuild. They were expected to contend for a playoff spot this year so far. Hasn't quite gone to plan, but they're sixth in the Atlantic, eight points out of a wild card spot. I think they're still actively alive here. They have some signs, I think, of optimism right now. They're goalie. Uso, actually, is their new starting goaltender in free agency who they brought over last summer. He's been fantastic at times behind a really poor defense. Lucas Raymond, their young first-rounder from two years ago, has looked strong again this season. And they've been much, much better at home than on the road. Now, San Jose has been absolutely abysmal with a capital A. They're second to last in the Pacific Division of head of only Anaheim. Eric Carlson, their number one defenseman. Who should be the Norris Trophy favorite right now is all but guaranteed to be traded away at the deadline. I think players are looking over their shoulders wondering who's next. Goaltending ranks dead last in save percentage by a large margin right now. They're in the midst of an eight-game road trip right now where they started off by losing to the worst team in the league, Columbus, and the best team in the league, Boston. They're facing all playoff teams after this matchup with Detroit. And there's no reason, I think, to believe they'll turn it around. Now, you might see some trades come into the picture here after the road trip if they don't string together some wins, and I'm not predicting that takes place here. I think this one's going to be over early. I think you're going to be able to shut this one off by the end of the second period here, Q. We're going to go with the Detroit Red Wings money line minus 144 over the San Jose Sharks blowout special.”
DET 3, SJ 2 — Detroit beat San Jose 3-2 in overtime; Red Wings won outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“The FanDuel.com line on this one is the Heat, minus 3, minus 110, versus Celtics. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, rematch of the conference finals. People forget that Miami was really injured, and they played Boston as hard as they could, and they were a three-point away, Jimmy Butler three, from actually winning that game, which is crazy. But I think you've got to owe it a lot also to the coaching staff for the Miami Heat. Miami Heat, Eric Spolstra, I think one of the best out there now. Boston had a nine-game winning streak. It was snapped last night in Orlando. And I've been telling people about Orlando. Got some nice pieces, nice young players. And I thought Orlando ran them off the court just had more energy in the game Boston played the game without Malcolm Brogdon also without Marcus Smart I do expect those guys to play tonight So I been checking into the injuries Looks like Al Horford will probably sit in this game. But Miami, playing much better late. They're probably as healthy as they've been the entire season. But here's the problem for the Miami Heat. They were helped last game. And this is a team, Miami, that they just made some mistakes with the salary cap. And the last game against New Orleans, our guy Kyle Lowry. I mean, a couple years ago, this guy was a centerpiece to the Toronto Raptors. But, boy, has he fallen off. He had one of his best games maybe in the last couple years. Scored 17 points when they came back from, I think it was a 16- or 18-point deficit. that he shot six or nine from the field, three for six from three-point land and scoring 17 points. But those have been few and far between. They have a problem here at Power Forward. They're plugging in Caleb Martin, a 6'5 kid, plays really hard, but he has not been 100%. He's had three or four awful games since he came back. Bam, out of bio. You know what? His shooting percentage. He has trouble against the Boston Celtics. He fell apart in the series last year. Jimmy Butler looks like he's deferring to too many guys. Tyler Hero also may be distracted. He had a child, his second child, with his girlfriend and not shooting threes at a high percentage like he has done from a few weeks ago. So I think Miami's going to play hard. They're playing at home, but Boston just owns them. They have problems. Boston is just so long defensively, and they have so many weapons offensively. I like Boston here. I'm taking the three points here. Level one lock on Tuesday.”
MIA 98, BOS 95 — Miami beat Boston 98-95, a 3-point margin exactly matching the Celtics' +3 spread; the bet pushes (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Timberwolves minus 5 versus the Rockets. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so Minnesota kind of been struggling, you know, right around 500, but I think they're ready to start going on a run here. It looks like there's a good chance Rudy Gobert comes back tonight. If he's patrolling the middle, makes it tough. He is a shot blocker and a rebounding extraordinaire player. And then on the other side, Houston looks like they're still going to be out. Two of their key players, Jabari Smith, Jr. He averages 12 points, almost seven rebounds, and almost 30 minutes playing. He's been out for a week now. Kevin Porter Jr. has been out for two weeks. Here's a guy averaging, playing almost 34 minutes, averaging over 19 points, over five rebounds, and five and a half assists. So these are two guys missing from the lineup I think that are big. But here's a team that has lost 13 straight games, and it's not like they've been having bad luck. And those 13 losses, every single loss has been by five points or more. So it's not like they're losing, you know, right at the last second here. The problem with a team like this is they are a young team. And they have some young guys. You need leaders. And right now, I just don't see it. Their best player, guy just a couple years out of college. When you have that, you need some type of veteran leadership. I don't think they have it here. They can't shoot threes. right now shooting the 29th in the league shooting three pointers here play very little defense ranked 25th as far as points surrendered free throw line not good at all here all they do is rebound that's it they're rebounding their misses mainly here so without these two guys and without veteran leadership I think they're in trouble here Minnesota can score I think they start going on a run here lay the five and a half points here hidden gem Minnesota's Timberwolves over the hapless Houston Rockets tonight”
HOU 119, MIN 114 — Houston Rockets beat Minnesota Timberwolves 119-114; Timberwolves lost outright, busting the -5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Virginia Tech minus 2.5, minus 118 versus Duke. I don't get this one, Lee, at all. How in the world is Virginia Tech favored in this game? Break it down for us. All right. When you see a team that is on a horrific run like Virginia Tech is on they lost seven straight games They 1 in the ACC and you see them as a favorite against a team that is considered stronger if they were playing the neutral court You know what? Don't fall for the trap. If you take Duke, you're falling for the trap. Virginia Tech, in my opinion, and I rate home court advantages one of the top ten best home court advantages. That crowd gets up. They get up for Duke. They've done extremely well over the last 10 games against Duke here, especially at home. So people think of Duke, oh, you know, young players. They got, you know, generally a lot of freshmen scoring. Well, as many problems as Virginia Tech has, and Virginia Tech ranks 157th in offense, Duke is actually worse, 166th. The game against Miami on Saturday, Duke was sky high. They played well, and they got a lot of close calls that probably shouldn't have been called or gone the other way. So officials, that happens a lot of times. They get intimidated in a place, and a lot of officials get intimidated when they have to officiate at Cameron Endor. So Virginia Tech's offense, like I said, a little bit better here than this Duke offense. I just think that their shooting is going to be a little bit better at home here. They turn the ball over 10.1 times per game here, but at home they take care of the ball much better here. So I'm watching them. A lot of close games. They lost to Clemson the other night by just two points. I think they're close. I think they're ready to go on a run here and at home. Like I said, best home court advantage here. Their defense is going to force turnovers from Duke. I'm taking the Hokies here. Don't fall for the trap and take Duke. Lay the two-and-a-half points here. blowout special, the Virginia Tech Hokies over the Duke Blue Devils on Monday night.”
VT 78, DUKE 75 — Virginia Tech beat Duke 78-75, winning outright to cover the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Grizzlies, minus one and a half for Sacramento, with the total being 245 and a half. Break this one down for us, Lee. What's your thoughts? Okay, here's what's crazy. Every single game, all seven games in the NBA at FanDuel, all the totals are 230 or higher. So not a whole lot of defense expected tonight here. And here's a game where you got Memphis. They had won 13 straight. And then on Friday night, they blew the lead to the L.A. Lakers, lost 122 to 121. Key turnover with 10 seconds to go in that game. I think cost them the game. And then they lost at Phoenix last night by two. So they lost two very close games. On the other side, Sacramento's coming together. This is a team that had won six straight until they lost at home to Philadelphia, 129-127. But let's look closer into the game. In that game, Sacramento, I thought they should have won. They had a big lead in that game. And what happened? Sixers, even without Joel Embiid and James Harden, came back. Sacramento gave up 70. That's right. Not seven. Not 17 or 27. 70 points in the paint and committed 15 turnovers. So they're going to have to cut down on that if they want to have a chance to win this game. John Morant, I think he's going to have a big game. Back in the two games meeting so far this year with the Kings, scored 69 points in the last two games. Back on New Year's Day, Grizzlies beat the Kings 118-108. John Morant had 35 points on 13-23 shooting, 8-10 from the free throw line. here. Also, Stephen Adams, 13 offensive rebounds. That's not right. Not 13 rebounds, 13 offensive rebounds, and finished with 23 on the night here to have a double-double in that game here. I just think the Grizzlies, the public is thinking, oh, maybe fatigue after playing last night. This is a team that really has all the components. You look at building a team, really good point guard. Their forwards are active. They score and they defend, and they have a center that rebounds. I think they might end up taking it this year and get to the finals. They're getting closer and closer. They want to have that home court advantage, and this is a big game here. They want to send a statement here. We're going to go with a level two lock on Monday here, take the Memphis Grizzlies here over the Sacramento Kings.”
SAC 133, MEM 100 — Sacramento beat Memphis 133-100; Grizzlies lost outright, busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Betonline.net live for this one. Kent State minus nine and a half versus Ball State. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, let's talk about conference play. And the MAAC is one of those conferences where the coaches, they pretty much all know each other. And games a lot of times are pretty close And just when a team might be pulling away they got some problems and then all of a sudden you have quite a race here So now we've got a situation where the Kent State team, 5-0 in conference, Ball State 4-1, got the top couple teams here going at it. And they made a change at Ball State. They went with a head coach named Michael Lewis. So I think he put together a really good staff. Michael Lewis actually played at Indiana. I don't know if you remember him. He's 45 years old. Had some stints at Stephen F. Austin, Texas Tech, Butler, Nebraska, then UCLA, and then took this job. And I think that the staff he's put together is really good. I mean, this is a staff that's been everywhere. They coach. They defend and they make things happen. And I think they're maybe a year ahead of schedule. So Kent State right now, they're winning the conference. Everything's going right. They're winning close games. But nine and a half points is a lot in a conference game. So if you look at these two teams and you look at the stats, I look at ten major stats. There's one where they're practically the same. and believe it or not, Ball State leads five of the other nine stats. So I think this line should be like four and a half, five. Sometimes the line is off here. Conference game, maybe with a pressure here, trying to get to six and O, even though they're playing at home. Outside of the offensive glass, not many advantages here that this Kent State team has. So I think Kent State's good, but the line should only be like five. I'm going to take the nine and a half points here. Hidden Gem here. We're going to go with a surprising Mac game here. Ball State plus the points against Kent State tonight.”
86-65 — Kent State beat Ball State 86-65; a 21-point margin busts Ball State's +9.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The 49ers minus four versus the Cowboys, but the total here, Lee, is 46. Multiple ways to play this one. Break it down for us. Yeah, I think the game is tight, and I think that it could go either way, and it's going to be possibly determined by a big play, maybe a turnover, maybe an official's call. And you know what? I don't want my hard-earned money to be dependent on that. I'm going to give you my top play for the weekend. Now, listen closely. It's my top play for my clients. I'm going to look to the over. Here's why. I think both defensive secondaries are vulnerable, and I think both teams have playmakers. Dak Prescott playing at a very high level. I think Tony Pollard running the football and catching the ball in the backfield is dangerous. C.D. Lamb, one of the top 10, 12 receivers in the league. Dalton Schultz, maybe one of the top five tight ends. How good has Dalton Schultz been? A lot of people don't talk about this guy but he catching touchdown after touchdown as the season progressed And then on the other side you have San Francisco And San Francisco is a team that has maybe the most playmakers in football Christian McCaffrey running and catching the ball is scary good. Almost 1,200 yards rushing, eight touchdowns. He caught 85 balls for almost 800 yards and five touchdowns. He is a weapon on every single play. Got Brandon Iyuk, scary, big time as far as potential. You know, he's like maybe their second best receiver. He caught over 1,000 yards of receptions and eight touchdowns. Debo Samuel running and catching the ball, maybe the best combination out there. And then George Kittle. And Dallas has trouble guarding tight ends. So weapons all over the field. And even San Francisco's defense, remember this, didn't play a lot of real tough teams down the stretch. And their defense, even though they were ranked number one, they had some trouble. I mean, let's look at Seattle. They gave up 23 points, got to play Arizona. Las Vegas game, the Raider game, you saw that. Backup quarterback put 34 on them. Washington, quarterback troubles all year, put up 20 on them here. I think this total is going over the mid-50s here. 46 is way too low. We're going to go with the over here in the Dallas-San Francisco divisional game here. Blowout special.”
19-12 — 49ers beat Cowboys 19-12 in the NFC Divisional round; the 31-point combined total falls under 46 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Hawks minus 2.5 versus the Knicks. Break it down for me, Lee. What's up? All right, so Atlanta's hot right now. Atlanta Hawks are winners of each of the last four games. But here's something that I bet almost no one knows. For the first time in their game on Wednesday night against Dallas, they had their top eight players playing the game. That's right. First time all season, all their top eight players were available. And when Klickapel is in the lineup, I mean, here's a guy that is a rim protector. So I know the whole thing people talk about, you know, hey, I don't like, you know, true centers anymore. You can play with kind of like a power forward. But here's a guy who in playing 27 minutes, not only averages over 12 points per game, averages 11 and a half rebounds Think about that now In 27 minutes averages over 11 and a half rebounds He averages one and a half rebounds Think about that now in 27 minutes averages over 11 and a half rebounds He averages one and a half blocks in that 27 minutes here And he alters a lot of shots here So I just like the way that they're coming together. Dallas has trouble guarding threes. They have trouble scoring three pointers of late. They've been absolutely right, absolutely ice cold under 30% in each of the last two games here. So Dallas, you know, they just were not able to give much of a, of a, you know, a game in that last game. So the Knicks here in this game here, not shooting threes. Well here, what I'm seeing is also, they're not spreading it out. So they have three guys that can score. They got Brunson, Kalen Brunson, love him as a point guard, But I don't love what Randall does, Julius Randall here. When he gets in, the game slows down here. So I think you need to speed up the game and be able to beat Atlanta at their best weapon, scoring in fast tempo, and you've got to play defense. And I just don't think the Knicks are up to it here. So they're not getting much out of any of their other starters. Robinson, Grimes isn't doing much. The only guy really off the bench is doing anything as quickly. Toppin, who I like a lot, for some reason, since he came back being injured a little bit, not played at a high level here. I think the line's low here. Two and a half points here. I'm going to ride the hot team. Atlanta Hawks here. Level two locked to end the week.”
139-124 — Hawks beat Knicks 139-124, a 15-point margin that covers Atlanta's -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Memphis minus 9.5 versus Wichita State. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so Wichita State has been a consistent NCAA tournament team, but not this year. They are way down. They've got two big problems. Number one, they can't score. Ranked 315th, averaging just 65.4 points per game. And get this, from three-point land, they're shooting 28.8% from behind the arc here. That is absolutely pathetic. They've had three games this year where they've scored 50 or less points. Yeah, they won the last two games, but they beat South Florida 70-66 and Tulsa by four. And I think Tulsa is going to be making a change of coach. I just think that they beat two really bad teams. Now they've got to go on the road and they've got to face a Memphis team. And Memphis, you talk about playing some competition, Memphis backs away from no one. So, so far this year, they went and took on SEC Vanderbilt, beat them, start the year by nine points. They also took on Mississippi, beat them by 11 points, took on Auburn, beat them by nine, lost to Alabama at Alabama by three, no shame there, and beat a team last night, Texas A&M, that's 5-0 in the SEC, beat them by four points. So this is a team that is battle-tested. They can score if you're going to lay almost double digits. You want to be able to score? Well, they scored at least 82 points in eight of the last 10 games. They are coming into their own here. Also, Wichita State turns the ball over. They've been in the 300s, and there's only 350 teams in turning the ball over here. Memphis is going to apply pressure here. Hidden gem. Memphis Tigers big time, probably by 20 or 30 points over Wichita State tonight.”
88-78 — Memphis beat Wichita State 88-78, winning outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Eagles minus seven versus Giants. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so the last week of the season, these two teams faced off, and the game really meant nothing. Game was played in Philadelphia. Philadelphia won 22-16. Not a lot of starters were playing on both teams. but the game that I went back and watched again they played in week 14 the game was played in the meadowlands and Philadelphia went in there and beat the brakes off of this Giants team they won 48 to 22 and they dominated It wasn like okay there was turnovers Nope Giants only had one turnover Philadelphia was clean, had none. Philadelphia had the ball for almost 33 minutes of the game, had 437 yards, held the Giants to 304. And one of the most important stats was they sacked Daniel Jones seven times. That's right. sacked him 11 times we're talking about a mobile quarterback guy that when he was on the run and also throwing the football was very effective last week they couldn't minnesota couldn't put any pressure on him at all they were trying blitzing him minnesota was so overrated now he's got to play a philadelphia team that's deep on the defensive line they on offense when hurts was healthy. They absolutely just were rolling here. I think he's as close to 100% as he's been a long time, so I expect Jalen Hurts to have a good game. I don't know what Don Martindale does here. Does he go to the blitz heavy package that he tried on the first half and they got burned? Or does he sit back? And I think he's just going to sit back and try to not blitz, but I think Philadelphia will manhandle. That offensive line is really good. They and knock you off the ball. I just don't think the Giants' offensive and defensive lines are there. We know the receivers are probably the worst in the NFL here. So if they have to play catch-up, they're in big trouble. The line finally went down to 7. It ticked down to 7. If your line other places is 7.5, buy it to 7. If it's 7 now, I'd say buy it down to 6.5 points here. Blow out special here. I like the Philadelphia Eagles over the New York Giants.”
38-7 — Eagles beat Giants 38-7 in the NFC Divisional round, a 31-point margin that covers Philadelphia's -7 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Celtics minus six versus Golden State. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so two teams have faced off in the championship the first time. Golden State was struggling and everyone thought Boston going to come in there and beat the brakes off them having revenge for losing the championship last year Well the champions Golden State took it to them 123 So now we at the point Boston looks like the best team still They had to make some adjustments the last couple games Jalen Brown's missed the last three games with a groin injury. Questionable whether he returns tonight, even if he returns. The guy averages over 27 points per game. I don't think he's 100%. I think he's going to try to give it a go. So even with them coming back, that's probably why the Lions jumped up from 4.5 overnight to 6 in the morning. I think that they're in trouble here. So this Golden State team right now, only 5-17 on the road. The announcers will talk about that record, and they'll talk about the dubs, you know, just not able to put it together. But I think they actually are. So Steph Curry had 41 points in the last game. Jordan Poole, 32. And what happened? What did they do with Mr. Thompson, Clay Thompson? Load management set out the last game. So he will be 100% ready to go here. He was not injured. So I expect Clay Thompson to have a big game here. Defensively, Warriors have not been close to where they were last year. They're tied for 15th in defensive efficiency, 14th in offensive efficiency. Don't be surprised if they're in and up by the end of the year, seventh and eighth in each of those categories. I think they're going to just keep moving up and up here. Boston's defense hasn't been much better. They're sitting at 13th. And I just think that these two teams are going to trade punches here. I think it's going to be maybe decided by the last possession either way here. So I'm going to take this six points here. We're going to end Thursday's card with our wrong team favorite. Let's go with the Golden State Warriors plus the six points. against the Boston Celtics tonight.”
121-118 — Celtics beat Warriors 121-118 in overtime; Golden State lost by 3, covering its +6 (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.net line for this one is Tampa Bay minus 175 versus Vancouver. But as I mentioned, there's a couple different ways to look at this. We're going to roll betonline.net line, Tampa Bay minus one and a half goals plus 140 versus Vancouver. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so the Lightning are doing what they've done for several years. What they do is they skate near the top of the division and slide into a comfortable playoff spot. It usually doesn't make much difference because they can turn it on. Home ice or even playing on the road doesn't make that much of a difference for them. They can win anywhere. Somehow they've been overlooked again. All the focus has been on Boston, New Jersey, and Toronto in the Eastern Conference. But if you go back to the start of December, Lightning team is 15-5 with a plus 25 goal differential. The power play humming right along. Andre Babalowski has found his form after a bad start to the season. Basilewski, just one of these guys that once he gets on a roll, his whole team just follows him. They're doing what they've done for five years now, and they're in a steady groove right now. But this game is more about the Vancouver Canucks than anything else. This team is an absolute disaster. Six in the Pacific. They lost seven of the last nine games. They ranked second to last just above Anaheim in goals allowed per game. And now the internal news is just as bad as the performance on the ice. Just reported that Tanner Pearson, one of their top six forwards here, will miss the rest of the season. So he had to have surgery on his wrist. So it was a botched surgery. So the number one defenseman, Quinn Hughes, was the guy who accidentally reported it to the media. So when you got guys on your team, they just don't have confidence in the staff, the porch staff. That's a big time problem here. So the way these doctors didn't mishandle the wrist surgery, botched it from what we hear. Big, big problems here. So he had to have multiple surgeries. And I don't know how you overcome it when the players are just not backing the coaches and the staff. But current head coach right now, Bruce Boudreaux, still coaching behind the bench. I think he's a lame duck coach right now. kind of even openly admitted it to the media. Lastly, Bo Horvat, the team captain, has been on the trading block the last several months now and has come out with his frustrations as well. I just don't think this team's focus is on the ice right now. They haven't shown it for months, and I don't think it's going to turn around anytime soon. So we're going to go with Tampa Bay here, minus the one-and-a-half. They've covered that one-and-a-half, five of the last nine wins here. I think they're going to win this game something like 5-1, 6-1 here over Vancouver. So let's bet a little, win a lot. Tampa Bay Lightning minus the one-and-a-half goals plus 140 over the Vancouver Canucks.”
5-2 — Lightning beat Canucks 5-2, a 3-goal margin that covers Tampa Bay's -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Chiefs minus 8.5 versus the Jaguars. Break this one down for us, Lee. So I want to get on this line here now before it possibly moves up to 9.5 or 10. So it's sitting at 8.5. And 8 is one of these numbers 8 where usually it doesn fall on that number But we don want to let it get to 10 because it might get a backdoor In fact the first game Kansas City won that game 27 And you saying oh okay well why are you backing a team that only scored 27 points at home in the first matchup in Week 10? Well, watch the game. And the score is deceiving. They were a big – in fact, they turned the ball over three times in the game to Jacksonville's none. and they just kind of went through the motions. That's kind of been Kansas City's just whole story this year. They win games but don't cover very often, but I think they're ready to turn it on here. I've also seen this story where a team comes back from a miracle win the next week, and they don't have the experience yet. They end up falling by the wayside here. So Kansas City was number one in the NFL in points scored here, number one in yards average here. Take nothing away from Jacksonville. Come from absolutely nowhere. I think we can all agree that Urban Meyer maybe was one of the worst NFL coaches of all time here. It kind of reminds me of Rich Kotai. He was a guy from the Philadelphia Eagles one day. So Urban Meyer took over that mantle. Jacksonville much more well coached here. But they're going to have problems with a defense. Last year, the Chiefs rated 29th in the league in sacks with 31 sacks. This year, 55 sacks, second most in the NFL here. I think Chris Jones, one of the most underrated pass rushers in the NFL, 15 and a half sacks, 29 quarterback hits here. And Trevor Lawrence, I mean, I think his day is going to come here, but just 197.6 passing yards during the final weeks of the regular season here. One touchdown to one interception ratio here. Chargers, you know, they always find a way to blow it. So kind of throw out that game here. So I just think that Trevor Lawrence's time will come. Just not yet here. Kansas City, I think they win this game here 37-17.”
27-20 — Chiefs beat Jaguars 27-20 in the AFC Divisional round, winning outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Aggies minus four versus the Gators. Break this one down for us. All right. So, I'm paying attention. This Texas A&M team has come out of nowhere. They've won six straight. In fact, the Southeastern Conference record for the Aggies, 4-0. So under the radar, are they probably going to win and finish in second or third? Maybe not, but I think they still might be able to have a run and go for another week, week and a half, two weeks. First game, they played Florida here in a conference game January 4th. Yeah, that's right, exactly two weeks ago. And what did they do? They went into Florida and won that game, that's right, by three points. But if you went to the game or you watched the game on TV or even looked at the stats, one of the strangest things happened. So Florida, almost right on their average, hit 45.5% of the field goals. They also hit 36.8, three-pointers. Okay, right near their average. Texas A&M won the game only hitting 37.7% from the field. And get this, you don't see this often, 12.5% of their three-pointers. They were two for 16 from three-point land. So they were able to come out with a win in that game. Now they get to play at home. Both teams are missing one of their five rotation players here. But Florida, not much offense here. They five times this year have been held to the 50s, and most of them in the low 50s here. They're 137th in the nation in scoring. On the other side, Texas A&M can score. I think they get a lot of ball movement here. They just create some open shots here right now. They're averaging 76.2 points per game. It was a bad game, and they still won here. So I just think that this Florida team here, they've been juggling the rotation all season. And Texas A&M hot here and play defense when they need to get a stop here. We're going to lay the four points. Texas A&M at home in College Station tonight, minus the four points over the Florida Gators. Level one lock.”
54-52 — Texas A&M beat Florida 54-52; a 2-point margin does not cover the Aggies' -4 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Nets, minus five versus Spurs. Break this one down for us. So Kevin Durant's going to be out for a little while, but Brooklyn's still sitting in pretty good position. They rank second right now in the Eastern Conference standings, trail the Celtics by four games and they can score I mean they averaging almost 114 points per game They shoot 50 from the floor They uh some people think oh you know they just they just you know a team that scores, but that is not the case with them. Uh, they actually play defense here. Uh, they're top 15 in defense. They're top five in scoring. Uh, I mean, you look at this, the San Antonio team, you talk about a team that is floundering. Oh, Lordy. You know, don't wait until the last couple weeks to start betting against teams. They have now lost five straight. They've lost eight out of ten. Most of these games are not even close. How about this? The last three games, they give up 132 to Sacramento, 144 to Golden State, 135 to Memphis. And the two games before that, they gave up 121 points in each game. So the only real statistic that they do well is they rebound. Why? Because they can't shoot straight. They get a bunch of offensive rebounds and keep missing. So this is a team that's dead last in shooting, and I don't think all of a sudden it's going to improve. So I think Brooklyn, even without Kevin Durant, runs in highs here, lay the five points here, blowout special. Brooklyn Nets over the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night.”
98-106 — Spurs beat Nets 106-98; Brooklyn lost outright, busting its -5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for these coaches to be the next head coach for the Denver Broncos. This one's the hidden gem. Dan Quinn, who we saw in first up close to personal Monday night, he's the Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator, excuse me. He's plus 175. And Sean Payton, who's sitting on the shelf. He obviously has to be traded for. He is plus 250. So that's the betonline.net line. Dan Quinn plus 175. Sean Payton plus 250 to be the next Denver Broncos head coach. And I'm a guy who covers the AFC West. I'm here in Las Vegas. Cover the Raiders like a glove. Obviously, there's a lot of interest on my part to see who's going to be the next head man there in Denver. For me, with all the guys that they have, I know that they have a very strong defense right now in Denver. But their money man is Russell Wilson. So to me, they've got to find a way, as much money as they poured into Russell Wilson, they've got to find a way to get him right. I don't know if Dan Quinn gets him right. So I would think that you would go with the plus 250 on Sean Payton. I think that that would be the Broncos' dream guy to get just to try to get that guy right. Again, they already have a strong defense. He's already putting together his wish list for his coaching staff, that's Sean Payton, and I believe he's going to bring Vic Fangio along, who always was already in Denver as a head coach, so he knows those guys, he knows the personnel, he knows how to get them right. I think that would be a win-win-win situation for Denver. Sean Payton plus 250 is how I would roll when it comes to the Denver Broncos head coaching. That would be my hidden gem.”
The Denver Broncos hired Sean Payton as head coach, officially announced February 3, 2023 (Wikipedia, citing contemporaneous reporting).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Frank Wright plus 3,000. Jim Caldwell plus 1,400. D'Amico Ryans plus 2,000. Those are some guys to choose from right there. Again, betonline.net line for the Broncos head coaching search. And I would think that Frank Reich is the guy. I would think he's the guy who got ran out of town in Indianapolis. Again, he's plus 3,000. So, you know, there's the 30 to 1 odds right there going for you. I just think that he's a guy that understands, again, going back to what he said, understands offense, understands quarterbacks, has the best opportunity to get Russell Wilson back to being the Russell Wilson that the Broncos traded for, not the one that they got in 2022. Jim Caldwell, I like him a lot. I think he got run out of Indy too early, but he's been off the shelf for a long time. D'Amico Ryans, he's a defensive-minded guy. He's a really good coach, but I don't know if that's the first place he wants to go and have to deal with Russell Wilson. So it would make more sense. If you're going to bet a little win a lot, I would roll with plus $3,000 for head coach Frank Wright in Denver.”
The Denver Broncos hired Sean Payton, not Frank Reich, as head coach (announced February 3, 2023).
“Maybe go for Vance Joseph, have him stay on. I think he did a decent job, plus 350.”
The Arizona Cardinals hired Jonathan Gannon, not Vance Joseph, as head coach on February 14, 2023.
“Or go with Brian Flores, did a nice job with the Miami defense. Looks like they sure fell way backwards without him this year at plus 750.”
The Arizona Cardinals hired Jonathan Gannon, not Brian Flores, as head coach on February 14, 2023.
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Jayhawks, minus two versus K-State. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so you don't get too many top 15 matchups at this point in the season. And here's one, and I think I can identify the right side here. So Kansas State did a great job. I mean, this is a team not many people expected much. They got off to a 15-1 start, and then on Saturday, TCU beat them by 14. They were never close in that game. But let's look at some of their wins. Before that, they beat Oklahoma State. Okay. Beat Baylor by two. Beat Texas by 13 at Texas. We know what's going on with the Texas coaching situation. I think they're in disarray. Some of their other wins, Wichita State, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Nebraska, Radford, UT Rio Valley, Cal, which started off like 0-8 or 0-10, Missouri-Kansas City, LSU, which is terrible this year. They even lost a game to Butler. So I think I wouldn't say they hit the wall, but they're going to come back to reality. Kansas is playing some really good ball right now. In fact, month of January, won all four games. Even in their game on Saturday, Iowa played, I thought, one of their best games, and they still held off Iowa State here. And in that game, what was interesting about the game, you know what? They had trouble shooting free throws. They missed eight out of 20 free throws. They were not shooting well from three-point land. So, you know, just made some key stops down the stretch. So winning conference titles here, you got to do it, and you got to do it on the road here. I think the Wildcats here, look who they got to play coming up this month. Kansas twice, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Florida over the next two weeks. So they're going to come down to reality. Kansas top 75 in scoring and also defense, and just don't think this Kansas State can be able to play good enough defense, and I don't expect Kansas to miss eight out of 20 free throws here. Let's lay the two points here. Kansas Jayhawks, level two lock on Tuesday over at the Kansas State Wildcats.”
82-83 — Kansas State beat Kansas 83-82 in overtime; Kansas lost outright, busting its -2 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Pittsburgh minus 170 versus Winnipeg with the over-under being 6.5 goals minus 105. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, oh, I bet you probably a third of the public thinks that Winnipeg's name of the Blue Bombers. No, that's college. That's Canadian Football League. It's the Winnipeg Jets. So they did us a solid last night, and we're going to come back with them here in a different manner this night. And we're going to look at the total here. So Winnipeg's offense continued to put up big numbers last night for us. They had 29 goals in the last seven games. Here circumstances change a little bit and that why you got to follow the NHL closely Things change from night to night especially when teams have back In fact both the Penguins and the Jets are starting their backup goalies tonight Winnipeg, because they went with the starter last night, and Pittsburgh, because they're starting goalies out with an injury. So David Rittich is Winnipeg's backup, and this guy I don't think is an NHL-level goalie. He started the season off decently behind the new Winnipeg defense, But he's given up seven goals in the last two games on just 64 shots. And if you're starting to see some obvious cracks in the game, you might want to just go against him here in a different way. So I don't think Pittsburgh will have many issues scoring on this guy. The offense is starting to come around. Sidney Crosby is still playing at an MVP level. And the power play still ranks 11th in the NHL at home. But as I said, circumstances change day to day in the NHL. The starting goaltender, Tristan Jerry, he's out for Pittsburgh with an injury. Casey DeSmith, who actually had a chance at the number one goalie job for the Penguins several years ago, is in his place right now. It has not been a good season for DeSmith. He's 5-10 overall with a 3.17 goals against average, 18th in the NHL. And he was basically the catalyst for the Penguins' recent struggles. Each of these teams rank in the top half in the NHL in expected goals. but they're still giving up their chances on the defensive end, especially on special teams. I think you can see a back and forth tonight here. I think something like a 5-4 final here. So I'm going to take the over 6.5 goals. It's your type of game here, Q. A lot of goals. Maybe it's over late second, early third period. So we're going over 6.5 goals, minus 105.”
1-4 — Jets beat Penguins 4-1, a combined 5 goals that falls under the 6.5 total (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Purdue minus 14 versus Nebraska. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, different type situation here. You don't see this usually this early in January, but these two teams have already played each other, and they played each other in Lincoln, and Pittsburgh came away with a three-point win. So now they're playing the second time, and this game is at Purdue. Nebraska, at home, sometimes they had their moments, but they had trouble scoring five times already this year. They've scored in the 50s, and when you score in the 50s, you better have a good defense. They don't. They're going to face a Purdue team that can score. In the first game, Purdue shot 39% from the field, 24 from three land and just 60 from the free throw line here Fletcher Lawyer getting hot He had a big game in the last game, 22 points. He's starting to heat up Zach Eady, I think one of the best centers in college basketball, kind of a dying breed, stays in the paint, scores from probably four feet in end and blocks a lot of shots. But I like his game a lot. I think he's perfect for this team here. And the Boilermakers, talk about elite defense. They have it right now. They are right up there in the top five in almost every single defensive category. So you've got to have – if you're going to be a top five team, and I think Purdue's clearly one of the top five teams and might make a long run in the tournament, you've got to do at least one or two things well. They play defense. So I think that they're going to limit Nebraska here probably in the 50s. I think they'll score in the 70s here. Take Purdue here. Successful offense, elite defense, blowout special number two, Purdue over the hapless Nebraska Cornhuskers in college basketball Friday night.”
73-55 — Purdue beat Nebraska 73-55, an 18-point margin that covers Purdue's -14 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Cowboys minus 2.5 versus Tom Brady and the Bucs. Break this down for us, Lee. So I want to get this line before it goes up. I do not want it to reach 3. I think Dallas is by far the better team. So they faced last year. Everyone thought going into the playoffs, it was a perfect scenario. They were off two big wins. They had beaten Philadelphia 51-26, and they had also beaten Washington 56-14. Oh, figure a team, oh, off two big wins. They're just going to keep rolling. When the playoffs started, well, it didn't happen. They lost to the 49ers. It was over. so now totally different scenario they lost 26 to 6 to Washington on Sunday so I think that this Dallas team is just they're hot and cold when they come into the playoffs usually and they're hot they fall flat on their face I don think many people give much of a chance everyone talking about Philadelphia everyone talking about San Francisco so I think that that also So by playing Tampa Bay in the first game of the year helps them They lost 19 to three and Dak Prescott did not look good in that game. And also Tampa Bay ran the ball 33 runs to just 27 passes. Since that time, Tampa Bay has totally flipped around what they do. And what do we see Tom Brady throwing the ball almost 67% of their times, most in the NFL. That's not good for a 45-year-old quarterback. That's why they're 8-9. In fact, their only win by more than a touchdown the entire season. I don't think they can run the football. Well, at this point in the season, their offensive line is decimated, and that's how you beat Dallas here. The Bucs, 4-12-1 against the spread here on the season. No shock. their 8-9 record here. I think Dallas comes out. I think they'll be motivated. I think they win this game something like 30-20, 30-17. So we're going to lay this two and a half points. Blowout number three, Dallas Cowboys over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.”
31-14 — Cowboys beat Buccaneers 31-14 in the NFC Wild Card game, a 17-point margin that covers Dallas's -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Bengals minus 8.5 versus the Ravens. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so first off, let's look at what's gone on the last five seasons in this wild card round. Well, underdogs. Underdogs have covered 16 of the 24 times. That's a 67% clip. So if you're going to bet favorites, probably you want to limit your plays. you want to play four or five favorites out of the six games We did give you one of the favorites early in the week and that was the Buffalo Bills That line we gave you was 10 It now up to 13 I think it's going to close 13.5 to 14. So it looks like we got the better part of the line. Had a real good idea that two was not going to play. He's ruled out now. He hasn't even passed level three of the five different parts of the concussion protocols. So he's out. It looks like Skylar Thompson will start this game here and didn't look good. So we think that Buffalo's going to blow them out, but I'm going to give you my top underdog play of wildcard weekend and falls into a bunch of systems also. It is the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore Ravens are getting eight and a half points here. Now they played Cincinnati last week in Cincinnati, and Cincinnati won that game 27-16. In fact, Cincinnati had to go to Baltimore earlier in the season. They lost 19-17. So in the two games that they have played Baltimore-Cincinnati, they scored 17 in the first game and 27 in the second game. So it's going to be really rough for them, I think, to score in the 30s. Do you really want to lay 8.5 points? I know Baltimore's not a big scorer where a team has not moved the ball and scored often. In fact, you look at the offense. Bengals' offense only gained 291 and 257 yards in the two meetings this year. Only 4.9 and 4.6 yards per snap did they get. Joe Burrow, as good as he was throwing the football last year, 8.9 yards per attempt. down a little bit this year, 7.4 yards per attempt here. So Tyler Huntley, I believe, will get the start. He played well when he started over a six-week period. And I think that they're going to be right in this game. It wouldn't shock me, would not shock me if they win this game. This Baltimore coaching staff fair is much better when they're an underdog. I know Cincinnati has covered 12 of the last 13 games, But playing a team back-to-back weeks, really, really tough to get the advantage here. And Baltimore, they held out a bunch of players last week in anticipation for this game here. Huntley did not play in that game last week here. They were also, they turned the ball over four times in that game. Four times to one and only lost by 11 points here. We're going to go with the Baltimore Ravens plus the eight and a half against Cincinnati. wild card weekend wrong team favorite”
24-17 — Bengals beat Ravens 24-17 in the AFC Wild Card game; Ravens lost by 7, covering their +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Jets minus 125 versus the Sabres. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so Winnipeg Jets head coach Rick Bowness. has them playing, I think their best hockey over the last five years right now. And a lot of it is coming into the form of the goalie, Connor Hellebuck Connor Hellebuck is one of these guys uh that when he gets on a roll he is really good Worst start to the year but he has really come on He ranks third all goalies in the NHL with a 924 save percentage. And he just looks so much more comfortable around the net behind this new defensive structure. The Jets were on a five-game winning streak before they lost their last game. They were averaging 4.2 goals per game in that span. And they really should have beaten Detroit. But this is a good bounce back spot for them. Now, we were taking Buffalo early in the season, early and often. But we've gone against them of late, and it's really paid off. Fun team to watch all season. They have really exceeded expectations. But this team is still not ready to contend, I believe, in the Atlantic or for a wild card spot. They're 5-10 their last 15 home games. and they've given up three or more goals in each of the last seven games. Eric Comrie, the young netminder who the Sabres actually signed from the Winnipeg Jets, is back from injury here and stabilizing force for Buffalo in the net to start the year, but lost his last five starts and he's given up almost four goals per game in that span. This matchup I just think is too much for the Sabres here. I don't see how they can keep up offensively without sacrificing too many goals in their own end here. I'm going to predict something like a 5-3 final score here for the Winnipeg Jets. So we're going to go with a blowout special. Winnipeg Jets money line minus 125 over the Buffalo Sabres tonight.”
4-2 — Winnipeg Jets beat Buffalo Sabres 4-2, winning outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“Bet on line, on that line for this one, Celtics minus 2.5 versus Brooklyn. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so we're sitting here pretty much in the midseason. Almost every team has played half their games. And it's important to look at what's going on in the NBA. And what's going on is, well, as through games on Tuesday, only four teams in the NBA had a winning record on the road. They were the Nets, one of the two teams we were discussing here. The Celtics, one of the two teams we're discussing here. The Knicks and the Bucs, that's it. Four teams have a winning road record, that's it. And of those four teams, only the Celtics and the Knicks have winning records against the spread on the road. So how rare is this? Well, it'll be the first time since 2006 that only four teams are less finished in the year with a positive road record here. Home teams are covering at a really high rate through Tuesday. Didn't figure it out until yesterday. I haven't had it tabulated that. But home favorites and home underdogs, positive records against the spread and home underdogs covering 59% of the time. Also, let's note the worst teams covering on the road, the Warriors, 4-15, the Mavericks 6 and the Cavs 6 So what am I looking at here and what do I see So the Boston Celtics are a machine I think right now they're the best team in the NBA. Two-star players, Jason Tatum, he scored 31 the other night. He's averaging 30.8 points, over eight rebounds, and over four assists a game. And also, Jalen Brown, underrated, second guy. He's not Batman, but he certainly does his part. He's averaging 27.7 rebounds and three assists. He scored 41 points the other night. I like it when they score Grant Williams. He's been starting the last couple games because smarts out. They've got scores also in defenders. Derek White, good two-way player. Al Horford playing at a high level. And then they picked up in the offseason Malcolm Brogdon. This is a guy that's averaging almost 14 points a game off the bench here. He can play a lot of their different positions and score. They're going to play Brooklyn without Kevin Durant. I watched their last game. Part of the reason this line is so low is Brooklyn's not played since Sunday. So there are four days here, and Boston's on a back-to-back. But in that game, the second half against the Miami Heat, they scored 23 and 13 points in the second half, mainly without their star Kevin Durant here. So I think they struggle to score here. I think the height of Boston, one of the top defensive teams, number two offensive teams, just going to get too many problems here. This is not much of a road trip here. We're going to lay the small spot here. Boston minus two and a half here against the Brooklyn Nets. level two lock on Thursday.”
109-98 — Celtics beat Nets 109-98, an 11-point margin that covers Boston's -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“The BetOnline.net line for this one, Towson minus 3 versus Delaware. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so this is a real underrated conference in football and also basketball. It's the Colonial Athletic Association. A lot of these teams go real far in the football playoffs. Used to be the 1-AA playoffs. Now it's the FCS. And in basketball, very competitive. Now, most people look at the records. They're like, oh, Towson's 10-6. It's 9-7. Playing at home, I probably wouldn't touch it. Both teams, kind of middle of the road as far as spread records. Eight and eight for Towson. Delaware, seven and eight against the spread. But there is an edge here. So what happened last year is Towson won the first two games and covered both. And then the Delaware Blue Hens got revenge in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament semifinals. And they won the game by 13 as a five-point underdog. So the last couple games, Towson won, but they didn't play anyone. They played Drexel and Stony Brook, two of the bottom feeders in the conference. And all of a sudden, they have some problems. They're going to be, it looks like, they're going to be without their starting point guard in this game. And this kid is one of these kids that does it all. His name is Cam Holden. Looks like he's going to be out due to a violation of a team rule. And he averages 15 points a game. Now, this isn't a pro game. This is a college game. 15 points a game, six and a half rebounds, and 4.7 assists. So you're not going to find many kids that are that important to a team. And on top of that, their backup point guard is out for this game. So I think that you've got a Delaware team that has the better defense. You have a team now, all of a sudden, Towson is struggling on offense. They are averaging 68.9 points per game, but it's been way down. And Delaware, I think, has figured them out. Now, Delaware's point guard, Jameer Nelson Jr. That's right. Jameer Nelson's son is the point guard. I don't think he's as good of a shooter as his father right now at this point, but he is averaging 19.7 points per game, over five rebounds, and over three assists on 45.5% shooting. He is a big-time pro prospect, very athletic here. I just think that, you know, they just didn't have a good game the last game. They shot three for 15 from three-point land. I think they come back here at home, home underdog here, Hidden Gem, the Fighting Delaware Blue Hens over Towson on Wednesday night.”
DEL 72, TOW 59 — Delaware beat Towson 72-59 on Jan 11, 2023; Delaware won outright, covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Duke minus 8.5 versus Pitt. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Duke ranked 24th is just not the same. John Shire might eventually work his way into being a good coach, but I don't think he's there yet. I think this Pitt team fares really well as an underdog. The last nine times, they've been a point spread underdog, have won and also covered. So this is a role, it seems like, where they play their best. Didn beat Clemson after beating a real real explosive team that a lot of people don you know just realize how good they are also defensively Virginia last Tuesday night I think that you know it was kind of caught in between after coming off that high of knocking off Virginia 68-65. Just didn't shoot well from the field. They shot just 40% from the field and 11 for 29 behind the arc. So just wasn't their game against Clemson. Thought they'd be flat. Now I think they'll be back up to go to Duke, where Duke is just not showing me much. I think this is an above-average team here. So I think Pitt will get back up for this game. They average 75.2 points per game. They shoot over 34% on their threes here. And then you look at this Duke team here, just ups and downs. And I watched the game against Boston College on Saturday. Went 65-64 as an eight-point favorite. I'm just not seeing anything here. They also looks like will be without Jeremy Roach with a toe injury. So I expect him not to play. He's listed as doubtful here. You know, if they had everyone, I don't know if they should be favored by eight and a half points over Pittsburgh here. Wrong team favored on Wednesday night. I like the Pitt Panthers over the Duke Blue Devils here at Cameron Indoor Arena.”
DUKE 77, PITT 69 — Duke beat Pittsburgh 77-69 on Jan 11, 2023; Pitt's -8 margin covers the +8.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one, Alabama minus 1 versus Arkansas. Break this one down for us Lee. I think Alabama might be, if not the top two, three hottest teams in the country right now. They have started off SEC play with some big time wins They went to Mississippi State on 78 Played Mississippi throttled them 84 And then on Saturday at home took apart Kentucky 78-52. Now, are they going to keep blowing out every team in the SEC? It doesn't work that way. But I think they can keep it going here for at least another couple games. When you're playing SEC ball, you can't just have one option. They got three. Brandon Miller, This kid has scored at least 17 points. He's a freshman in all three SEC games. He has also reached above 20 points five times this year and averaging 19.1 points per game and 8.5 rebounds per game. Also, Mark Sears, big-time scorer here. This junior guard, 21 points in the Mississippi State game. He's averaging almost 15 points again. And then Braden Bradley here, another kid, freshman guard. He can do it all and distributes the ball. So they have three threats. Even if one of them doesn't have a real good game, the other two seem to pick everything up here. Arkansas has been struggling here. Ricky Council, the fourth, has not been real productive. In fact, 13 or fewer points in three of his last four games here. junior guard did have 26 against Oklahoma a month ago just hasn't been the same here team that's had a bunch of injuries here I think this line is low because they're playing at home people look at the Ken Palm rankings uh and see them ranked right there very close uh to this Alabama team but uh uh just think that their their defense uh is going to have to be just spot on They're going to have to maybe limit Alabama to low to mid-60s, have any chance. And I just don't see it here. Nick Smith Jr., unlikely to play in this game. And they've lost two of the last three games without him here. We're going to go with a level three lock all the way up on hump day Wednesday. We're going with the Alabama Crimson Tide tonight over the Arkansas Razorbacks.”
ALA 84, ARK 69 — Alabama beat Arkansas 84-69 on Jan 11, 2023; Alabama's +15 margin covers the -1 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Michigan State minus one and a half versus Wisconsin. Break this one down for us. Yeah so Michigan State on a nice little run right now and they want to keep it rolling They ended up knocking off their rival Michigan Wolverines on Saturday Now they're going to play Wisconsin. But I think this might be a trap game. You know, a lot of people talk about trap games, but when you play your rival in one game, and I think that they're looking ahead to the Illinois game this coming weekend, And they want to, you know, just keep rolling here. But the problem is I think they're going to overlook Wisconsin. Wisconsin's last game, I mean, they started off awful against Illinois. I think they were like one for 13, one for 14, shooting from three-point land. When you do that, you fall behind in a game. You're not going to be able to catch up. So now they're at home, and they're going to face Michigan State, who's actually, this is only their third true road game. So they had a road game where they played Notre Dame and did not fare well, lost that game, got blown out, and then won the second road game. So only their third true road game. They've had some neutral site games here. They've had a rebounding edge against most teams. They might have a slight edge against Wisconsin, but Wisconsin forces turnovers. So this is a really good defense, ranked 22nd. I think rebounding and defense requires a lot of effort, and I think they're going to be flying around to the ball here. They want to come back after that 10-point loss to Illinois on the road where they just, like I said, couldn't get over the hump. But they're balanced scoring. They don't have to have one guy have a great game. Chuckie Hepburn, guy averages almost 13 points a game. Steven Crowell right there, another 12.5 points per game and almost seven rebounds per game. I think they're a pretty darn good shooting three-point team. They just haven't knocked them down. But at home, sometimes teams can get that back. Big Ten home court advantage is huge here. We're picking a good spot here. Wrong team favorite here. Wisconsin Badgers here. Bucky over Michigan State on Tuesday night.”
MSU 69, WIS 65 — Michigan State beat Wisconsin 69-65 on Jan 10, 2023; Wisconsin's -4 margin busts the +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Bills minus 10.5 versus Miami. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so if Tua was playing in this game, and I think it's less than 5% chance he does, line would probably be Buffalo about 7, 7.5. Teddy Bridgewater plays in the game. Line would be 10, 10.5. I don't think he's playing. He's got a fractured finger on his throwing hand. It's almost impossible to throw well or to throw probably over 35, 40 yards or something like that. and then Skyler Thompson. I was at the Miami game against the Jets. He limped out of the locker room. He's not 100%. He's not going to lead you very far. What did they have? They had three field goals against the Jets defense at home, and now it gets even worse. Lost another lineman from the start of the year to now. They only have two starting linemen who are healthy for this game. They playing some fourth and fifth string guys at some key positions also where he mustered he ended up breaking his thumb in that game I think it highly unlikely that he plays in the game Hill and also Waddle, not 100%. You watch Xavier Howard. He couldn't cover Garrett Wilson at all. I think he's just out there. He's a body. In fact, during the regular season, rated third from last in all cornerbacks and covering receivers. they are so beaten up in the secondary. They've lost four of the top six guys. This is a team that just somehow got there. They were 8-3 at one point, lost five straight, beat a beat-up New York Jets team with Joe Flacco quarterbacking them on Sunday. The last game that Dan Marino, I know people are excited the Dolphins made the playoffs, and I am as a Dolphin fan, but the last Dan Marino game was a playoff game. They played Jacksonville. they lost 62-7. May not be as bad as Monday night, 65-7. Whitewash at Georgia over TCU. I think Buffalo's going to win this game, something like 42 or 45-7 here. We're going to go with a blowout special, get it on it early.”
BUF 34, MIA 31 — Bills beat Dolphins 34-31 in the AFC Wild Card game on Jan 15, 2023; Buffalo moneyline wins (ESPN recap).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Heat minus 4.5 versus OKC. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, another game I'm going to attend tonight. So two and three days here with the Dolphins on Sunday and the Heat on Tuesday night. The Miami Heat's playing the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Miami Heat is walking wounded. I have a feeling a bunch of Heat players will not play in this game. I think Ben Matabayo, although he's listed as questionable, will not play. He might come back later in the week. Also, Kyle Lowry listed as out. Also have Martin, their starting power forward. He's out for this game. Tyler Hero listed as questionable. I think it's 50-50 within the injury. he plays. The only guy, only starter, starting lineups going to be playing in this game for sure is Jimmy Butler. So Jimmy's going to have to carry this team. They've lost Duncan Robinson. He had a surgery on his fractured finger. So it's going to be guys like Dave Vincent. It going to be center like Orlando Robinson who was in the G League just a couple weeks ago Max Struis maybe Victor Oladipo can play 25 30 minutes here They are walking wounded and they going to face an Oklahoma City Thunder team playing well of late. In fact, they've won three of the last four games. They lost a little less than a month ago, 110-108 to this Heat team. How have they played in the last four games? Well, they beat Boston 150-117. did lose to Orlando on the road, but then beat Washington by 17, beat Dallas by 11. They're only four games under .500. I think they're going to make the playoffs, no. This might be one of those mini 10-game runs here, and boy, can they score. They light it up. They're in the top half in scoring. Miami Heat ranked third from last in scoring, so I think it's going to be an open game here. A lot of people don't realize this Shea Alexander not averaging 20 or even 25 points per game. He's averaging 30.9 points per game. The fifth-year pro from Kentucky coming into his own, getting almost five rebounds, averaging over five-and-a-half assists a game here. He is doing it all. Also, Josh Giddey, love him. Point guard here and shooting guard. He's dishing out over five-and-a-half rebounds, five-and-a-half assists a game, averaging almost eight rebounds, scoring 15.5 points per game. Young team, also Dort at shooting guard, another guy averaging almost 15 points per game. So I think they're looking for revenge here. We're going to go with a level two lock on Tuesday here, going against two of my Miami teams in one day here. I like the Oklahoma City Thunder getting four and a half points against the Miami Heat on Tuesday night.”
MIA 112, OKC 111 — Heat beat Thunder 112-111 on Jan 10, 2023; OKC's -1 margin covers the +4.5 spread (ESPN recap).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Nuggets minus nine versus the Lakers. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, LeBron turning it on. I think he wants to be in the playoffs. I think he wants to make a statement. And not only is he playing well, getting a lot of help. Russell Westbrook is shooting much better of late. He is not turning the ball over. I love him coming off the bench a lot better. third leading scorer, and then Patrick Beverly playing some really good defense. But the story of this team of late is a gentleman named Thomas Bryant. Average person doesn't even know who he is. He's a center. Been around, believe it or not, quite a long time. And that's what's crazy. Sometimes the guy's been two, three, four years, but he's been starting for the Lakers. and he is in his sixth year at Indiana, 6'10", almost 250 kid. And you talk about playing some good basketball. He's averaging between 15 and 30 points a game the last five games, which has been a five-game winning streak for the Lakers. He's averaging between, it seems like, 10 and 20 rebounds a game and playing really good defense. And what does Denver possess? maybe the best center in basketball. If you want to stop him, you want to slow him down. You've got to have someone that plays hard. So I like the way he's playing. I like Lonnie Walker with all these other guys playing well. Opened up him to slash to the basket, hit threes. And I think the sign's too high. This sign should be like four and a half, five points here. Love Jokic. I think he's a great player. But the rest of the complementary guys have not been playing that well. Let's go with the Lakers here. plus the points wrong team favorite on monday night”
DEN 122, LAL 109 — Nuggets beat Lakers 122-109 on Jan 9, 2023; LA's -13 margin busts the +9 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one, New Mexico minus four versus Oral Roberts. How are you feeling this one, Lee? Yes, so I do believe that the Lobos will drop out of the top 25 because they lost their last two games. But I think there's a good chance they end up getting back in the top 25 in a short period of time. Just had two games. Just things didn't go right here. They're playing an Oral Roberts team. It doesn't impress me. I think Oral Roberts has a pretty good offense But the problem here is their defense They rank below 100 in almost every single defensive category Yeah, they're top 20, top 25 in a few things offensively, but they rank overall 199th defensively. So they just haven't played anyone. New Mexico's played a tougher schedule, play in a tougher conference. And who do I like here? a kid from Miami. I've seen this kid play summer ball. The name will definitely, it'll remind you who his father is, Jamal Mashburn Jr. So he leads the team here, averaging over 17 and a half points per game. He's a competitor. See him play in these leagues and he hates to lose. Saw him play high school football, basketball and football. This line is low. If New Mexico wins the two games or wins one of the two coming into this game, it's finally sitting at eight, eight and a half, nine points. You're getting it here below five points. I think you jump on it here. Blowout special for Monday, New Mexico over Oral Roberts.”
UNM 82, ORU 75 — New Mexico beat Oral Roberts 82-75 on Jan 9, 2023; New Mexico's +7 margin covers the -4 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. Georgia minus 13 versus TCU. How are you feeling this one, Lee? All right, so you're saying to yourself, why is this line 13? You always got to look at a line and figure out why is it so high or so low. And the reason it's high, Georgia won the national title last year. They get higher recruited players. They start off the season really strong. They destroyed the Oregon Ducks. But I don't think they're the same team that started the season. I don't think they're the same team in the middle of the season. They play 60% of their snaps with two or more tight ends. Their second and third string tight end, it looks like we probably not play in this game tonight So I think that a big factor They got to change some things around there They have a quarterback in Stetson Bennett I be shocked if he gets a sniff in the NFL I don't think he's an NFL player. Max Duggan, I think the kid is a great college quarterback. I think he's a competitor. He can pass well, run a lot better than Stetson Bennett. He's a runner. He has a heart that is like three times the size probably of most people. I'm just kidding. But it seems pretty big the way the kid plays. Yeah, no doubt. And they play a 3-3-5 defense. Georgia hasn't faced a 3-3-5 defense. And you're thinking, oh, well, Georgia will just run the football on them. They show so many different looks. It is tough in nine days' time to prepare for a defense you have never faced. And the kids are making plays. People say, oh, well, Michigan threw two pick sixes. No, TCU made plays to make them pick sixes. So I think maybe a little bit, a few people have some doubts about Kendra Miller playing. I think he's a really good running back. But even if he doesn't play, Amari DiMercato, I think is a special running back, number three. He's a home run hitter. So he's probably one of the best backups that no one knows about. And Quinton Johnson, number one wide receiver, I think he's a top 10, 12 pick in the NFL draft. He's one of these guys, 6'5", can fly like the wind, big-time player, makes plays. So this line should be like 7 1⁄2, 8 tops, not 13 here. We're going to go with TCU with a level 3 lock, maybe the first time we've ever done it on a Monday night. TCU plus a 13 against Georgia.”
UGA 65, TCU 7 — Georgia beat TCU 65-7 in the CFP National Championship on Jan 9, 2023; TCU's -58 margin busts the +13 spread (Wikipedia, citing official game result).
“betonline.net line for this one the Chiefs minus 9 and a half versus Raiders Just break this one down for us Lee You talk about one of the craziest situations we maybe ever have seen in the NFL is the Kansas City Chiefs Sitting at 13-3, no team has a better record in the NFL, but no team has the worst point spread than the Chiefs. That's right. The Chiefs' point spread is shocking, borderline alarming. They're 2-13-1 against the spread the last 16 times they've faced below 500 opponents. 1-10-1 against the spread the last 12 games after a victory. 1-9-1 against the spread the last 11 games when laying four or more points here. The Raiders here have covered the last six times they've faced a team with a winning record here. thought Jarrett Stidham looked good, cut down on the turnovers his team has had, and he has weapons. I mean, look at Devontae Adams playing at a real high level. Look at Jacobs, the running back. I think he's a top three or four running back in the NFL right now, running and catching the football. Darren Waller, Hunter Renfro came back. They each had three catches here. The Raiders, I think they're going to be able to put up points on Kansas City, and conversely, so can Kansas City. They can score in Vegas here. Kansas City wins 35-30, but Vegas covers. Wrong team favorite. Nine and a half points, way too much.”
KC 31, LV 13 — Chiefs beat Raiders 31-13 on Jan 7, 2023; Las Vegas's -18 margin busts the +9.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Jacksonville minus 6 versus Tennessee. Break this one down for us, Lee. No one thought Jacksonville was going to be at this point. And I haven't talked to one person who thought they were going to be playing for the division title and to have a chance to play in the playoffs. But so be it. How have they come together? Good coaching. Doug Peterson turned this team around here after what they went through last year. And then they've got talent. Everyone thought they had talent. But last year, Travis Etienne, he was injured. Didn't play at all during the regular season. He's come back. And in the second half, he's been a weapon running and catching the football. Trevor Lawrence, everyone thought he was going to be a superstar. Pick first. Last half of the season, he's one of the top two, three quarterbacks. As far as ratings certainly has commanded the respect of the offense here And they played to win last week They had nothing to play for And what did Doug Peterson do He said we going to play all our starters They ended the nine-game mastery that the Houston Texans had over them. They smacked them right in the face and won that game. On the other side, Tennessee, they said, oh, we got nothing to play for. Last Thursday, they basically tanked on national television, and they got beaten down. So I just think this is a tough matchup here for Tennessee. They lost 36-22 to Jacksonville earlier in the year, and that game was in Nashville. The Titans secondary got burned in that game. I don't know how they're going to make any changes here that will make any difference in this game, even their owner. She decided when they were 7-3, I'm going to fire the GM. They've lost six straight since that point. I think she realized they had bigger problems here. As good as Derrick Henry is, the rest of this team is bad. B-A-D. I'm going with Jacksonville here. Blowout special over Tennessee on Saturday.”
JAX 20, TEN 16 — Jaguars beat Titans 20-16 on Jan 7, 2023; Jacksonville's +4 margin falls short of the -6 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Princeton minus nine and a half versus Columbia. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right. So usually home dogs on Friday nights, which is Ivy League night. They're the conference that seems to play on Fridays, and they also play on Saturdays. I don't know if people realize that. They usually have back-to-back games, and they value the student athletes, so they want to make sure it doesn't interrupt the schedule during the week. and I think that gives a lot of credence. So I like the fact that they do it that way, and there's been some really good teams over the last dozen or so years that have come out of the Ivy League, and I have a feeling that this Columbia team is not one of them. Princeton, they could be. They're 10-4 right now. Both these teams, believe it or not, are 1-0 in conference play. just felt that Columbia got a little lucky in their first game against Yale. They played at home Everything went right Yale just couldn hit anything from three land Princeton on the other hand one of the stronger teams you look at as far as scoring you look at as far as three shooting you look at defense they rank in the top hundred in all three categories and you look at the other side this this Columbia team is a team I think that really struggles in fact twice they have been unable to even get to 40 points in a game here. They rank also on top of that as far as scoring problems, 210th in the nation in scoring defense here, 124th in rebounds, 144th in three-point defense here, and 337th at the very bottom among almost all teams in turnovers per game here. we're going to go with the hidden gem to end the week here let's go with uh princeton princeton tigers go into new york city and take care of the columbia lines”
PRIN 68, COLU 49 — Princeton beat Columbia 68-49 on Jan 6, 2023; Princeton's +19 margin covers the -9.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Bet online.net line for this one. The Celtics minus three versus the Mavs. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so Boston is on a third game of a four-game. Not a Western. You hear about these Western Cubs. This is, I don't know what you would call this swing. They started in Denver, then moved to Oklahoma City, and it didn't go well from the start. Lost to Denver, 123-111. Gave 123 points. And we talk about no defense. They gave up 150 points to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Now they've got to play the Dallas Mavericks. You talk about a team that can score. Dallas Mavericks, Luka Doncic. I think right now he'd probably win. The MVP is averaging over 34 points per game. He is averaging almost nine rebounds a game. He's averaging almost nine assists per game. They beat the Houston Rockets on the road. And before that, looked really good. In fact, they won seven straight. They blasted San Antonio, Houston again, New York, the Lakers, and also Houston and Minnesota. So this is a team that, whether they're playing at home or on the road, is playing well. They have the complementary players. That's always been their problem besides Luca. He hadn't had a whole lot of help. One guy, and no one really talks about him, is Christian Wood. So 6'9", power forward. Here's a guy that's averaging almost 28 points per minute, averaging almost 18 points per game, averaging in just almost 28 minutes almost eight rebounds per game. And he just does the little things, and they're finally restarting him. I think that's where he should have been all along. Tim Hardaway Jr. playing at a high level. Spencer Dinwiddie does a little bit of everything. People think of him just as a scorer. the averaging over five assists per game also love reggie bullock he's playing well right now so as good as boston is i think they might be the best team in the nba they've hit like a wall here they're on top of the east i think they're just running on overdrive here i think they've hit that skid here i'm going to play the dallas mavericks here wrong team favorite over the boston celtics tonight in nba action”
BOS 124, DAL 95 — Celtics beat Mavericks 124-95 on Jan 5, 2023; Dallas's -29 margin busts the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline line for this one Jets minus one versus the Dolphins Break this one down for us, Lee. So the public was on the Jets last week. They and the Seattle Seahawks weren't playing well. And it was Mike White's first game back, and he just didn't look good. He was delivering the ball late. Also was not accurate. and that happens sometimes in the first game back. So I think he'll be more suited to having a big game here against Miami, who at one time during the game for about a quarter, because their safety, one of their safeties was out, they were without their top five defensive backs. That's right, both starting cornerbacks, the inside cover third cornerback, and both safeties from the beginning of the year. You just can't compete in the NFL down all five years started from the beginning of the year. Now, Holly, he'll be back. He'll play in this game. But still, there's a chance that Xavier Howard, who's in a Pro Bowl, doesn't belong. You look at what his ratings are as far as on pass coverage, third worst in the NFL before he missed the last game with an injury. I think there's a good chance he doesn't play again here. Talk about offensive tackles. How important is the left and the right tackle? Well, the Miami Dolphins were down to their fifth string left tackle. That's right. Fifth string left tackle on 48 pass attempts, 20, 20, 20 times. That's right. Not eight, 10, 12, or 15, 20 times there was pressure on the quarterback. So it was the highest in the NFL last week. That's one of the reasons probably why Teddy Bridgewater fractured a finger on his throwing hand. It looks like he will not play. They're going to have to go to Skyler Thompson. Skyler competes. I mean, you know him well, too, from your time at Kansas State. He's a nice third stringer, but he's not a second stringer yet. He's clearly not a starter here. And I think Dolphins, just too many guys out. I mean, I know they got Hill and Waddle are still healthy, playing at a high level, but you've got to get them the ball. They're not getting the ball in space here. I think the Jets with Mike White playing his second game back from injury and also looking to end the Dolphins' season, I think they get the job done here. We're going to take the Jets. Well, maybe one of our least blowouts because neither team can score a lot, but we're going to take the Jets. I think they'll win this game something like 20-13 over the Dolphins here.”
MIA 11, NYJ 6 — Dolphins beat Jets 11-6 on Jan 8, 2023; Jets moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“and betonline.net, live for this one. Iowa minus one and a half versus Indiana. Break this one down for us, Lee. So Iowa right now is really struggling They lost on the road to Penn State on Sunday 83 Lost to Nebraska last Thursday 66 That's right. Lost by 16 on the road. Even lost at home by nine to Eastern Illinois. You talk about a team that started hot. I mean, they started the season. Everyone thought, wow, this is going to be a really good year. It started off, they started going 6-1. They beat Georgia Tech. They beat Clemson. They beat Seton Hall. Even beat Iowa State. They did lose some tough games to Duke and Wisconsin. But you talk about problems. They have had it since that time. Aren't shooting free throws at a high level. And now one of their top players, that's right, one of their top players, The coach's son has decided, well, you know what, Patrick McCaffrey, I've got some mental issues. I'm going to step away from the game. And sure, you have to support the kid, but he's averaging 12.8 points per game, and that's a lot. So their defense has been horrific. They rank 245th in the country, a little over 300 teams, allowing over 71 points per game here. So you're not shooting free throws. You're not playing defense here. Only hitting 31.7 of the three-point shots here. They're in trouble here. This Indiana team is solid, and I like what they did. They took a break. You don't see this too often. I like the scheduling. They have not played since Friday, December 23rd. So I think they'll be rejuvenated. I think they've been game planning for this game here. we're going to go with a level two lock on thursday we're going to go with the indiana pacers over the iowa hawkeyes”
IOWA 91, IND 89 — Iowa beat Indiana 91-89 on Jan 5, 2023; Indiana's -2 margin busts the +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Duke minus five versus NC State. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, this is a battle here. Tobacco Road, one of the biggest rivalries around. I mean, it goes back to Jim Valvano. He just said you got to beat the best, and that's how North Carolina State made their name. They've fallen off. They've been back and forth over the years. These are two similar teams, I think, as far as talent here. So Duke has the name. They have a lot of the freshmen that are really good. Kyle Popowski, talented kid, freshman center, has scored, though, just 15 points in his last two games against Wake Forest and Florida State Conference games. He's averaging a little under 14 points and 8.5 rebounds. But just up and down, Jeremy Roach, also very inconsistent, reaching double digits in just one of his last four games, their junior guard, averaging 12.5 and shooting just 38%. Mark Mitchell, solid. Freshman forward, scored 15 points, but he's just averaging that nine-point score per game. So these kids are going to see a riled-up crowd. This North Carolina State crowd and this North Carolina State team, this is the game that they play for. Deverki and Smith, this kid can take over for NC State. I saw them play in person against Miami. They had Miami, and Miami just went crazy shooting the last nine, ten minutes to come back and win that game. So Miami now ranked number 12th. So when they've lost, they pretty much have lost on the road to really good teams. I think this is a talented team under the radar here. Duke has only played one true road game so far this year, and that was at Wake Forest, and they lost that game by 11. North Carolina State one of these teams that has a lot of senior leadership veteran players here Smith as I mentioned is one of those seniors here And I just don think this Duke offense here is anything special just too up and down here. We're going to take the points here. Wrong team favorite. NC State here, maybe even outright over Duke here.”
NCSU 84, DUKE 60 — NC State beat Duke 84-60 on Jan 4, 2023; NC State +5 covers by a wide margin (ESPN box score).
“bet online.net line for this one Pittsburgh minus two and a half versus the Browns but the total is 40 and a half points break this one down for us Lee all right the the these two teams just are not scoring let's look at Pittsburgh, they're the favorite in this game. They beat Baltimore on the road last week 16-13. Before that, beat Vegas at home. Your Raiders 13-10. You saw that game. Before that, 24-16 against Carolina. 16-14, they lost to Baltimore. Beat Atlanta 19-16. Kind of you get the point there. The way to win there is to not turn the ball over. and when they do that, they can stay in a game. That's their recipe to try to win games. Cleveland just don't have the offense. I mean, Deshaun Watson has come back, and he did throw three touchdowns in the game last week, but didn't even throw for 170 yards. There were short touchdown passes set up by running the football with Nick Chubb. They beat Washington 24-10 before that loss to New Orleans 17-10. Beat Baltimore, 13-3. Lost to Cincinnati, 23-10. All these games are under. That's the way these two teams are playing. Now, let's look at the weather conditions. Low 40s, 50% the extended forecast, 50% chance of rain. And what we've seen, you watch the kickers in these kind of games. They have trouble with the win. It looks like the ball's going through the middle of the goalpost. ends up five yards to one side or the other. So let's look at the Cleveland kicker. Okay, Cleveland, you think of them as having some pretty good kickers over the years. Well, Cade York, just 24 for 32 this year, and has also missed two extra points. Then you look at Pittsburgh. And Pittsburgh normally, you know, they have that advantage. They've got a kicker that kicks in these type of environments, and they've got a kicker that came back off of injury. And what's going on with that situation? Well, Chris Boswell, you think him as one of the better kickers? He had a real good year last year, but this year just 18 for 26, under 70%. So I just think this game is lining up as an under. I think the total is probably going to close, 38.5, 39. Let's get the good line right now. Let play under 40 total points Cleveland Pittsburgh I see another 16 13 game here hidden gem under 40 total points cleveland pittsburgh i see another 16 13 13 to 10 game here hidden gem under 40 and a half total points pittsburgh and cleveland”
PIT 28, CLE 14 — Steelers beat Browns 28-14 on Jan 8, 2023; combined 42 points busts the Under 40.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Cavaliers, minus four versus the Suns. Break this one down for us. Well, this Phoenix team has certainly struggled here without Devin Booker. And now it's the last game of a six-game road trip. They have lost four or five. And how bad was it recently? Well, in the last couple games, scoring has gone down. They lost to Toronto, only scored 104 points, and then got blown out on Monday afternoon in New York to the Knicks 102-83. They need his scoring. They need his leadership here. They're playing a Cleveland team that's hot. They had a nice run early in the year, and now all of a sudden getting hot again. As you mentioned, Donovan Mitchell, 471 points in that game. They scored 145 points. So I think that they've won the last two. I think they're going to continue on this run here. It's the last game of the homestand. They want to win before they go out on the road. I think they have too much firepower here. This is an easy play here. We're going to go with a blowout. And like I said, this should be easy here. Lay the points. Cleveland, big time over Phoenix tonight.”
CLE 90, PHX 88 — Cavaliers beat Suns 90-88 on Jan 4, 2023; Cleveland's +2 margin falls short of the -4 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Heat minus six versus L.A. Break this one down for us, Lee. So the NBA is about picking spots. If you play four or five games a night, you're going to be in trouble. I mean, just too many random results. So these two teams played last Wednesday. And what happened? Miami won the game by 14 at home, won 12-98. And that game, similar statistics. statistics, shooting the ball, field goal percentage, and also three-point percentage. In fact, the Lakers even outshot Miami 36 to 31 percent for three-point range, but they turned the ball over 24 times, 24 turnovers to just five for Miami. Didn't take care of the ball. So I think this is going to be an up-tempo game. LeBron playing really well. He always seems to get up for these Miami games. So in the last game against Charlotte, what kind of game did he have? He scored 43 points, 11 rebounds, six assists. He just was playing at a real high level. So he takes this game personally here. Bryant Westbrook, Russell Westbrook, I'm sorry, should be ready for this game too. He loves up-tempo here. So it was the turnovers in the last game here. And Miami just doesn't have an interior defense. They have Bam on the inside. They have some major injuries going on, backing him up at center. One of the kids, Robinson, who's playing well from the G League, had to send him, it looks like, back down. He can only play, I think, something like 20 more games the rest of the season. So they want to limit how many games he ends up playing. So up and down game here. This is what Russell Westbrook loves. This is what LeBron James loves here. Miami's good. They're playing well. playing much better three of the last four they've won here but six points are you kidding me on the road in miami way too much here we're gonna go the level two lock on hump day wednesday la lakers over the miami heat”
LAL 112, MIA 109 — Lakers beat Heat 112-109 on Jan 4, 2023; LA won outright, easily covering +6 (ESPN box score).
“BenOnline.net line for this one. Kentucky minus 9.5 versus LSU. Break this one down for me, Lee. I'm so glad we finally have gotten to conference play in college basketball because there's some teams out there that you just can't find any information on. And, you know, even if the lines are 25, 30, 40-point lines and you've got a team that is really so good, I mean, you just can't bet games, in my opinion, where you know nothing about one of the teams. We don have to see these Kentucky Christians or Bellarmines and try to figure those out And I just don really touch those kind of games Now we into one of the premier conferences and historically these two teams really gone at it LSU and Kentucky Kentucky, obviously, their colors are blue. They're considered a blue blood. They have played a really tough schedule. I mean, they've played some really tough teams. They're 9-4 already on their schedule. They played UCLA, played Michigan, played Missouri, played Michigan State, played Gonzaga. The problem is just haven't beaten anyone good. So do I think they're eventually going to be good? Yeah, I think they're going to be good, but it might take another couple weeks to a month here. So do you really want to lay almost double digits with a team that plays a tough schedule but hasn't really proven themselves? I don't think this LSU team, even though they really haven't played many tough teams in the last game, who did they play and beat? Arkansas. Yeah, I know it was at home, but they've got a lot of confidence now. Got a roster here that has a little bit of everything. You have some young guys, have some guys that are sophomores, juniors, seniors. So they have that senior leadership here. And so I just think that K.J. Williams, who's their leader, had 33 points in one of the last games. And I just think that they know how to score in the clutch here. They also know how to defend the three-point line. So I think Kentucky's going to be good. If this game was played maybe three or four weeks from now, I probably would back them here. I think they're pretty good on the boards. That's going to be their strength. They are ranked 14th by Ken Palm. But you can't just go by rankings. You've got to sometimes go by the eye test here. So LSU, even though they played a light schedule, I just think they're going to keep this game close. And like I said, even Purdue, watching their game yesterday against Rutgers, they were ranked number one. Are they one of the top teams? Yeah. But teams are still trying to feel each other out here, and I think LSU is certainly capable. So I'm going to take the nine and a half points here in LSU. I think the wrong team is favored. LSU and Kentucky tonight, SEC college basketball action.”
UK 74, LSU 71 — Kentucky beat LSU 74-71; LSU's -3 margin covers the +9.5 spread (Kentucky Wildcats 2022-23 season schedule, Wikipedia).
“Lay the small spot. Two and a half points here. Blowout special. Utah Jazz or the Sacramento Kings? Oh, there it is right there. I'll tell you right now, when I saw this game on the schedule early, early, early, before the season got underway, I didn't think the Jazz and Kings would be a very competitive game, given everything that went on with Utah in the offseason, and will the Kings be in the Sacramento Kings. But lo and behold, this should be a really fun game right here to pay attention to. The Jazz and the Kings. Again, betonline.net line for this one. Jazz minus two and a half versus Sacramento.”
SAC 117, UTAH 115 — Sacramento beat Utah 117-115 on a game-winning layup; Jazz's -2 margin busts the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Edmonton minus 150 versus Seattle. Break this one down for us, Lee. So I was riding the Seattle Kraken part of the first six weeks of the season. But the Seattle Kraken looks like they're finally starting to crack. They have come back to earth. Offense, they still rank sixth in hockey at 3.46 goals per game. but it has dried up quite a bit in December. They ranked 25th in the NHL at just 2.85 goals scored per game. Their underlying statistics back this trend up, though. They ranked 20th in the league in expected goals per game It seemed like almost every shot on goal the first maybe six to eight weeks of the season went in But the problem now also is their goaltending They've given up 17 goals the last four games. Philip Grubauer has given up 3.53 goals per game so far this year. He's expected to start tonight. He is considered one of the worst goalies in the league after leading the Avalanche the last few years. for Edmonton. They're just trying to gain some traction in the Pacific Division. They just blew out the crack in here in Seattle a few days ago, and looks like they're going to get some consistent goaltending down the stretch. They, in fact, signed their goalie, Stuart Skinner, to a contract extension. He's gone 12-9-1, 16th, right kind of in the middle, best save percentage in all of hockey. When the season started, they were getting no goaltending and also no defense. I think this Oilers team is just on much more steady footing here, especially at home right now than Seattle appears to be. They should be able to handle this game with ease here. Level two lock on Tuesday here. We're going to go with Edmonton Oilers money line, minus 150 over the Seattle Kraken.”
SEA 5, EDM 2 — Seattle beat Edmonton 5-2; Oilers moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Utah minus one versus Penn State. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so Utah's a great story. I mean, they end up coming back in both games against USC. They win the conference championship. I love Cam Rising. I mean, the kid is a winner. But I don't think this is a real talented team. I think they've just done it on guts and what talent they had. They had two really good tight ends. But one gets hurt middle of the season. The other gets hurt before the end of the season. and I think they're playing on fumes. I know they want to win the Rose Bowl, which they lost last year. They came up close, and the stats will tell you Kyle Whittingham, 11-4 in bowls. But watching this Penn State team, I think they're fired up to play this game. They came up short in two games against Michigan and Ohio State. And now we realize Michigan was a really good team, just didn't play well in the game against TCU with the two pick sixes. And Ohio State right there probably could have beaten Georgia. Every other game they dominated. So I think this is a team that's going to win in the trenches here. I think they've got the two best running backs, Katron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. These two guys combined for literally 1,800 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns. I like the makeup of their defense here. I'm taking Penn State here. Wrong team favored in the Rose Bowl. Penn State plus the one point. There's even some pick-ems out there against Utah here. I think they get the money. Nice. I like it. I like it. Nice little game as well, man. Utah, Penn State, Rose Bowl action. I always look forward to some of these college football games, and this is one of them that I'm really looking forward to. Again, betonline.net line for that one. Utah, minus one versus Penn State.”
PSU 35, UTAH 21 — Penn State beat Utah 35-21 in the Rose Bowl; Penn State's +14 margin covers the +1 spread (Wikipedia).
“We're going with the Philadelphia 76ers tonight in NBA action over the New Orleans Pelicans. There you go right there, 76ers and Pelicans. And there's been a lot of conversation, you're right, about the Pelicans, especially with Zion. But what C.J. McCollum's been able to do lately as well, breaking the record the other day for three-pointers, what do you have, 11 for the Pelicans? So he's been a nice addition. But there you go, Philadelphia getting hot and getting healthy. That's really important. And I'm always a little on the fence when it comes to Philly winning the big games. Not this game, but the big games because of James Harden. And I just haven't developed a trust in him yet. But we will see how they do down the stretch when it really matters the most. But right now, there you go, rolling with them in the blowout special versus the New Orleans Pelicans. Again, betonline.net line for that one. 76ers minus 3.5 versus New Orleans.”
PHI 120, NO 111 — Philadelphia beat New Orleans 120-111; 76ers' +9 margin covers the -3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Buffalo minus one versus Cincinnati. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, and this Cincinnati team is rolling. A lot of people don't realize what kind of role they are on right now. They have covered. That's right, covered 20 of 23 games. I can remember the last time a team has been that hot So people thought and people got off maybe the first game or two this year especially with Joe Burrow You know he was coming off an appendectomy He throws four picks But since that time since that slow start I think they 1 1 They have been on an absolute roll. But now all of a sudden, I think the biggest problem outside of Joe Burrow is their offensive line. They've got injuries. Collins, their star lineman they got in free agency, he's done. So without him and without one other starter, I think they're in trouble against this Bills pass rush. I know Von Miller's out, but they have plenty of other pass rushers here. So I think they're going to come after Joe Burrow. The weather, also a factor. Looks like after the game starts, maybe in the second quarter by halftime, could be heavy rains. And I think right now, actually, Buffalo is running the ball better than Cincinnati. They ran for 235 yards. They have really been able to find a way to interchange their three top running backs, running, catching the football here, and then Josh Allen. No quarterback, and as good as Joe Burrow is throwing the football, his receivers are great. I think Buffalo's receivers are right there. And also Knox, their tight end, has been contributing. I expect Stephon Diggs, who didn't do much the last couple weeks, to have a big game here. And Josh Allen, he's able to run and take off in bad weather. No better poor-weather quarterback in the NFL. So I'm going to lay the one point. We're going to start off the week with a level one lock here in the NFL. One of the biggest games we've seen on Monday night football just late in the season, Buffalo Bills over the Cincinnati Bengals tonight.”
The Week 17 Bills-Bengals game was suspended after Damar Hamlin's on-field cardiac arrest and was never resumed; the NFL declared it a formal no-contest, voiding the wager (Wikipedia: 2022 Buffalo Bills season / List of canceled and rescheduled NFL games).
“We're going to go here to the hidden gem, Cleveland Browns, 27-23 over the Washington Commanders.”
CLE 24, WSH 10 — Cleveland beat Washington 24-10 in Week 17; Browns moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“UCLA, the Bruins, blowout special over Pitt. This might be one of those games where it's 44-10.”
PITT 37, UCLA 35 — Pittsburgh beat UCLA 37-35 in the Sun Bowl; UCLA moneyline busts (Wikipedia).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Jets minus 1.5 versus Seattle. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so Mike White's going to step back in as a starter. He's recovered enough from a rib injury to play in this game. They need a win in each of the last two games and get a little bit of help to make the playoffs. They are so much better with Mike White. Zach Wilson was lost out there, lost confidence, was thrown to the wrong receiver. Jets have been much better away from home, and they're rabid fans as Zach Wilson's wife. No, not his wife. His mother likes to call him, I think, calls him toxic, if I want to use the correct words, want to quote her. Four and three straight up, five and two against the spread on the road. Seahawks, defense has really struggled the last five games, and some of the quarterbacks they've faced haven't even been that good. Guys like John Wolford, Sam Donald here, they've given up 27.6 points per game the last five games here. Seahawks have lost five of the last six games. They've only scored 15.6 points per game. And just think that this Jets team is a different team with Mike White under center here. Level two locked to end the week here New York Jets over the ground at Seattle Seahawks Boom there it is right there Yeah I like the Jets man I like their makeup with Mike White I don think he a quarterback of the future like the long solution”
SEA 23, NYJ 6 — Seattle beat the NY Jets 23-6 in Week 17; Jets' -17 margin busts the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So let's take this Washington team here. I think the wrong team is favored in this game. I like Washington. I like Michael Penix a lot. He does some really good things with that ball, man. He's a hell of a quarterback, excited about what he's going to do. And, yeah, when guys start missing, and B. John Robinson is so important to that Texas offense. When guys like him are out, that just makes that whole team a whole lot different. So there you go, Alamo Bowl right there, Texas versus Washington, betonline.net line, Texas minus three versus Washington.”
WASH 27, TEX 20 — Washington beat Texas 27-20 in the Alamo Bowl; Washington's +7 margin covers the +3 spread (Wikipedia).
“Well, number two in the country here, a little out special, Florida State over Oklahoma in the Cheez-Hit Bowl. Tell you what, man, Oklahoma better figure out that defense. If they don't figure out that defense for the upcoming season, man, they are going to be awful, and they're going to say, yeah, this trip to the SEC, let's turn around and not have that trip to the SEC once they finally get there because, man, they've got to be able to play some kind of defense, and they couldn't do it. Me and you could have scored against them in 2022, man. Their defense was awful. So there you go. Cheese it bowl action. Florida State versus Oklahoma. Florida State minus 10.”
FSU 35, OU 32 — Florida State beat Oklahoma 35-32 in the Cheez-It Bowl; FSU's +3 margin busts the -10 spread (Wikipedia).
“We're going to go with a level 2 lock here. We're going to go with the L.A. Clippers plus the 6 against the Boston Celtics on the parquet floor.”
BOS 116, LAC 110 — Boston beat the LA Clippers 116-110; Clippers' -6 margin exactly matches the +6 spread, a push (ESPN box score).
“We're taking the 12 1⁄2 points here in Villanova here. Wrong team favored. Right out of the chute on Wednesday. Villanova keeps it close against UConn tonight. Maybe even pulls the shocker in college basketball.”
CONN 74, VILL 66 — UConn beat Villanova 74-66; Villanova's -8 margin covers the +12.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“i'm gonna say oregon wins this game 66 to 60 we're going over the 75 total points”
ORE 28, UNC 27 — Oregon beat North Carolina 28-27 in the Holiday Bowl; combined 55 points falls short of the 75 total, over busts (Wikipedia).
“We're going to lay the three and a half points. We're going to come back with a back-to-back level three lock here tonight in college football. Ole Miss minus the three and a half here tonight over Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl.”
TTU 42, MISS 25 — Texas Tech beat Ole Miss 42-25 in the Texas Bowl; Ole Miss's -17 margin busts the -3.5 spread (Wikipedia).
“Hidden gem here. Motor City, quick lane, bowl, whatever they want to call it here. Hidden gem, we're going to go with Bowling Green, laying the three and a half over New Mexico State.”
NMSU 24, BGSU 19 — New Mexico State beat Bowling Green 24-19 in the Quick Lane Bowl; Bowling Green -3.5 loses outright.
“We're going to lay the six points here. Blowout special, Portland Trailblazers over the hapless Charlotte Hornets tonight.”
POR 124, CHA 113 — Portland beat Charlotte 124-113, an 11-point win that covers Trail Blazers -6.
“I'm gonna lay the four points we're gonna go with a level two lock nice to start on Monday level two lock LA Chargers here over the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night football”
LAC 20, IND 3 — Chargers beat Colts 20-3, a 17-point win that covers LA Chargers -4.
“Let's take the seven and a half points here. Wrong team favorite and choose favorite bowl here. The Y bull. We're taking middle Tennessee state over San Diego state.”
MTSU 25, SDSU 23 — Middle Tennessee beat San Diego State 25-23 in the Hawaii Bowl, a 2-point outright win that covers MTSU +7.5.
“We're going to go with a blowout special in Phoenix tonight. Yeah, the Memphis Grizzlies laying the one and a half points here over the Phoenix Suns.”
MEM 125, PHX 100 — Memphis beat Phoenix 125-100, a 25-point win that covers Grizzlies -1.5.
“the Kansas City Chiefs and the Seattle Seahawks. The Chiefs looking good at 11-3. Seahawks starting to come down to earth 7-7. This game, single-digit temperatures are expected when it kicks off. No thank you. BetOnline.net line for me. BetOnline.net line for this one. Kansas City minus 10 versus Seattle. Break this one down for us, Lee. So the last couple years, Kansas City Chiefs are a covering machine. Also, you play over the win total, and they've just been rolling right along. But some things have changed. Still winning a lot of games. In fact, last 13 games, Kansas City Chiefs 10-3. What's the problem? They can't cover games. They just don't have the same talent around Patrick Mahomes. He's doing his job. 4,496 passing yards leads the league. 35 touchdown passes leads the league. But in the last 13 games when they've been 10-3, they are 2-10-1 against the spread. Let me repeat that. 2-10-1. I don think we ever seen a team win so many games have such a poor spread record These lines are elevated here And now they going to delay double digits again laying 10 points when they laying more than seven points during the stretch. Oh, five and one against the spread. So how do you play in poor weather? Got to run the football. She had a lot. She has a better running attack with Kenneth Walker came back last game played. Okay. I love playing guys or best players. The second game, They have an extra three days to prepare for this game. Also, I think Geno Smith, I'm not saying he's top five, top ten quarterback, but he's certainly somewhere in the middle here. So I think this Seattle team got some pretty good pass defense here, and I think it's going to be good enough to hold up here. I think Kansas City wins this game something like 30 to 27, but I'm taking the double-digit points in the Seattle Seahawks in their game on Saturday against the Kansas City Chiefs. we're going to go all the way up level three lock on friday there you go level three lock”
KC 24, SEA 10 — Chiefs beat Seahawks 24-10; Seattle +10 loses outright by 14.
“So I'm going to take the 10 and a half points here. I think the wrong team is favored. George Washington, I think they're going to take this game right down to the wire. They might even pull the shocker here over Washington State.”
WSU 66, GW 64 — Washington State beat George Washington 66-64 in the Diamond Head Classic; GW +10.5 covers, losing by just 2.
“We're going to lay the three points here. Blowout special, Baylor Bears over the Air Force Falcons tonight in the first responder bowl.”
AF 30, BAY 15 — Baylor and Air Force actually met in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl (not the First Responder Bowl, which was Memphis vs Utah State); Air Force beat Baylor 30-15, so Baylor -3 loses outright.
“If you're going to, you know, lay eight and a half points, you know, can they win this game by two, three, five points? Absolutely. But I'm watching this first team like the Orlando Magic. I told everyone about Orlando. They might not have a good record, but they're playing hard. They're starting to come together. This San Antonio team's coming together. They blasted, blasted Houston the other night. So I think they've got a lot of confidence here. They've got a lot of guys that can score 10, 12, 15 points here. They all chip in. They mix in. They even go full-court press sometimes. They do some things. So they're coached well. And I think they're looking at this game, hey, maybe we can steal one here without Zion. So, you know, this New Orleans team does score 118 points per game, but without the rebounding here, I think they're going to have some problems here. Knock it out on the fast break here. We're going to go with a level two lock on Thursday. We're going to take the San Antonio Spurs, maybe pull off the shocker against the New Orleans Pelicans. Boom, there it is right there, going with the Spurs against the Pelicans.”
NO 126, SA 117 — New Orleans beat San Antonio 126-117; Spurs +8.5 loses outright by 9.
“I'm predicting a 4-2 final here for the Dallas Stars. So we're going to go with the Dallas Stars money line, minus 145, blowout special over the Edmonton Oilers.”
EDM 6, DAL 3 — Edmonton beat Dallas 6-3; Stars ML loses outright.
“We're going to take the Utes here, play the one and a half points here. Another blowout special in college basketball over the TCU Horned Frogs.”
TCU 75, UTAH 71 — TCU beat Utah 75-71; Utah -1.5 loses outright by 4.
“So we're going to lay the six points. Yeah, it's not a mistake. the Sacramento Kings are laying six points not getting six points low out special by double digits over the LA Lakers”
SAC 134, LAL 120 — Sacramento beat the Lakers 134-120, a 14-point win that covers Kings -6.
“So seven and a half points, that's a lot to have to win by on the road here. So we're going to take the points here. Wrong team favorite here. Tuesday night, ACC action, and it starts at 6.30 Eastern. Always check the start time before you place your bet. You don't want to, at 7, 7.15, get ready to place the bet and realize games already started in the middle of the first half. So Demon Deacons plus the points here. Wrong team favorite of the Duke Blue Devils.”
WAKE 81, DUKE 70 — Wake Forest beat Duke 81-70; Wake Forest +7.5 covers easily as the outright winner.
“Lay the points. Lay the three and a half. Toledo blowout special over Liberty.”
TOL 21, LIB 19 — Toledo beat Liberty 21-19 in the Boca Raton Bowl, a 2-point margin that falls short of the -3.5 line.
“So let's go all the way up. Carolina Hurricanes money line minus 125 here over the New Jersey Devils level three lock”
CAR 4, NJ 1 — Carolina beat New Jersey 4-1; Hurricanes ML cashes as the outright winner.
“I'm going to lay the one point here. We're going to go to hidden gem South Florida bulls over the Hofstra pride here on Monday night.”
USF 77, HOF 70 — South Florida beat Hofstra 77-70; USF -1 covers by a 7-point margin.
“We're going to go with the wrong team favored. Again, two straight shows with the same team, Orlando Magic, getting seven and a half points against Atlanta.”
ATL 126, ORL 125 — Hawks beat Magic 126-125; Orlando +7.5 covers, losing by only 1 point.
“We're going to go under thirty nine and a half points. Yeah, that's right. The total's at 39.5 points. It's that low for a reason here. Level one lock to start the week.”
GB 24, LAR 12 — Packers beat Rams 24-12; combined 36 points is under the 39.5 total.
“betonline line for this one Celtics minus 13 and a half versus Orlando break this one down for Lee All right so we played a couple nights ago played a team that was playing Houston that probably wasn great but we played a situational spot And here's another one. You find them in the NBA. There's a couple games a week. Boston Celtics were on the road for 11 days, six games. They had to play Brooklyn. They had to play Phoenix, Golden State, and in L.A. to play the Clippers and the Lakers. And I just think this is a spot to come back home. A lot of teams, after long road trips, the first game, a team can catch them. This Orlando team, you're looking up, same old Orlando. They won four games in a row. I've been watching them the last couple games, and they have some talent. I'm telling you, I don't know if it's this year, but I think next year, the year after, They're going to break out, and they're going to be a top three or four seed. They got this kid, Franz Wagner, from Michigan, averaging 19 points a game. Even Bo Bo, who they got in the trade, who's played for the Oregon Ducks, he's playing well. They're starting. He's averaging over 12.5 points a game, over 7.5 rebounds. And then first-round pick, Paul Branchero, averaging as a rookie, Almost 22 points a game and almost seven rebounds and almost four assists. And then the guy we used to make fun of, Markeel Fultz, point guard who used to go to Washington, been a couple different places. All of a sudden, he's found a stroke. People were saying, can't shoot the ball. Well, 45.5% from three-point land this year, 75% even from the free-throw line here. They are scoring points here. Great spot here. Take all the points you can find. Wrong team favorite, Orlando Magic here. They're going to play the Celtics tight. You might even want to throw a little something on the money line because they can score in bunches here. I think this is going to be a fun game to watch. There you go right there, starting us off with the Celtics and the Magic.”
BOS 109, ORL 117 — Magic beat Celtics 117-109 outright, so Orlando Magic +13.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Fresno played a small spot here. Blowout special in the Jimmy Kimmel Bowl tomorrow afternoon. Fresno State, big over Washington State. There you go. and Jake Hanner is starting to get a little bit of love from the NFL. I'm starting to hear a lot of folks as they get closer and closer to the draft start talking about he could be a guy that could be a player in the league. So we'll see what happens. But, man, I'll tell you what, for that Fresno State Bulldog team, he is the guy. He is the engine that makes it go, the straw that stirs the drink, whatever you want to call it, whatever cliche you want to put, he is that guy. So there you go. Blowout special in the Jimmy Kimmel Bowl. Fresno State minus 3.5 versus Washington State.”
FRES 29, WSU 6 — Fresno State beat Washington State 29-6 in the LA Bowl, a 23-point margin, so Fresno State -3.5 covers (Wikipedia game summary).
“Cleveland Browns lay the 2.5 points here. Level 2 lock on a Friday to end the week over the Baltimore Ravens.”
CLE 13, BAL 3 — Browns beat Ravens 13-3, a 10-point margin, so Cleveland Browns -2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Wrong team favorite tonight. we're going with the Seahawks here of Seattle 20 to 17 over the San Francisco 49ers”
SF 21, SEA 13 — 49ers beat Seahawks 21-13 on Thursday Night Football, so Seattle Seahawks ML loses (ESPN box score).
“Lay the 11. Sometimes you've got to lay it. If you want to play it, blowout special, UAB over Miami of Ohio, Friday morning, 1130 a.m. Eastern in Nassau, Bahamas.”
UAB 24, M-OH 20 — UAB beat Miami (OH) 24-20 in the Bahamas Bowl, a 4-point margin, so UAB -11 busts (Wikipedia game summary).
“Lay the one here. We're going to go the level 2 lock on Thursday. The New Orleans Pelicans over the Utah Jazz.”
UTAH 132, NO 129 — Jazz beat Pelicans 132-129 in overtime, a 3-point New Orleans loss, so New Orleans Pelicans -1 busts (ESPN box score).
“let's lay the four and a half with georgia southern on wednesday night here hidden gem here over moorhead state”
GASO 71, MORE 74 — Morehead State beat Georgia Southern 74-71, so Georgia Southern -4.5 loses outright (ESPN box score).
“I'm taking the seven points way too many points here. I think this game goes down to the wire. Who knows? Minnesota might even win the game outright here. Wrong team favorite. Minnesota Timberwolves plus the points tonight in L.A.”
LAC 99, MIN 88 — Clippers beat Timberwolves 99-88, an 11-point Minnesota loss, so Minnesota Timberwolves +7 busts (ESPN box score).
“I love Oregon State. It's at 10 now. This line could climb to 12-13 by game time here. We're not going to go with a lock because we've got a blowout special on Wednesday. We're going all the way up for a second straight day. Level 3 lock, Oregon State Beavers. over the Florida Gators in the Las Vegas Bowl on Saturday.”
ORST 30, FLA 3 — Oregon State beat Florida 30-3 in the Las Vegas Bowl, a 27-point margin, so Oregon State Beavers -10 covers (ESPN box score).
“So we're talking about laying 32 points. We're not talking about laying 18-22 points. We're talking about laying 32 points. And you've got to think if they get up 15, 20 points by halftime, they're going to start substituting some guys. They don't have a whole lot of scoring, as I mentioned. Senior guard Marcus Sasser leads the Cougars offense, 16.1 points per game here. Also, junior guard Tremont Mark, 10.1 points per game. That's it. Two guys. Two guys averaging double figures. So when you beat a team, you know, by 32 points or more, you got to have some scoring here. And they're just not scoring right now. They do play great defense. But I think North Carolina A&T has nothing to lose. If they weren't scoring, I'd stay away from this game. This is a trap game here. They're not going to win the game. But wrong team favored by 32 points here. We're going to go with North Carolina A&T tonight as they travel to Houston for a non-conference game.”
HOU 74, NCAT 46 — Houston beat North Carolina A&T 74-46, a 28-point margin, so North Carolina A&T +32 covers (ESPN box score).
“Blowout special, Edmonton Oilers money line minus 130 over the Nashville Predators.”
NSH 3, EDM 6 — Oilers beat Predators 6-3, so Edmonton Oilers ML wins (ESPN box score).
“I'm laying the points here. We're going to go all the way up, believe it or not, on a Tuesday. Level three lock. Milwaukee Bucs tonight over the Golden State Warriors. Boom. There it is right there. And, you know, I would like to disagree with you, but given the road record of the Warriors, the way that they play on the road, I have to be in full agreement with you. And I'll say this. When you get the Warriors at home, they can play some defense like they did on Saturday against the Celtics. But, man, on the road, they are just a struggle bus. So there you go. Bucs and Warriors. Going to be a hell of a game. I'm very much looking forward to it this evening. Again, Bucs, Warriors, betonline.net line for that one. The Milwaukee minus three and a half.”
MIL 128, GS 111 — Bucks beat Warriors 128-111, a 17-point margin, so Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Miami is reeling here and you're gonna lay three and a half points not in this lifetime for me here so I gonna take the Indiana Pacers at home plus three and a half wrong team favorite”
IND 82, MIA 87 — Heat beat Pacers 87-82, a 5-point Indiana loss, so Indiana Pacers +3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“So I like New England with their backs against the wall, an extra three days to prepare, lay the one and a half points, blowout special. I think they win this game. It's not going to be a high-scoring game, but something like 23-13 tonight.”
ARI 13, NE 27 — Patriots beat Cardinals 27-13, a 14-point margin, so New England Patriots -1.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“And Creighton, we're going to go with a level one lock here to start the week in Las Vegas over Arizona State. There it is right there. A little hoop action here in Las Vegas. Creighton and Arizona State, not mad at that at all. And, yeah, Creighton, everything did start out really well for them. And it just hasn't been that way as of late. But they get back on the winning side of things this evening, according to Lee Sterling, ParamountSports.com. Again, BetOnline.net line for this one. Creighton minus three versus Arizona State.”
ASU 73, CREI 71 — Arizona State beat Creighton 73-71 at the Jack Jones Hoopfest in Las Vegas, so Creighton -3 loses outright (ESPN box score).
“So 16 and a half points. This line should be like 10 or 12 here. Wrong team favored. Washington Huskies here, plus the points on Friday night, late night action against Gonzaga.”
GONZ 77, WASH 60 — Gonzaga beat Washington 77-60, a 17-point margin, so Washington +16.5 busts by half a point (ESPN box score).
“I like Miami big here. Should be a fun game to watch, too. High scoring. Also like the oversome here. Blowout special. Miami, 35-24 over the Chargers.”
LAC 23, MIA 17 — Chargers beat Dolphins 23-17, so Miami Dolphins ML loses (ESPN box score).
“we're going to end the week with a level one lock on friday here we're going to take milwaukee minus a small spot one point against the dallas mavericks”
MIL 106, DAL 105 — Bucks beat Mavericks 106-105, a 1-point margin that exactly matches the -1 spread, so Milwaukee Bucks -1 pushes (ESPN box score).
“And laying, you know, more than four or five points too much here. Wrong team favorite. L.A. Clippers here plus the points against the Miami Heat on Thursday night. Boom, there it is right there. A little NBA action, the Heat and the Clippers. And, man, I mean, we should just give a tip of the cap to the Clippers whenever Kawhi's in their back-to-back games. You know, I mean, it just doesn't happen very often. But, man, when he's out there, we all know that the team could be a hell of a team. He's just not out there, as far as I'm concerned, enough. But there you go. He's out there tonight. We do expect WTF the wrong team favorite. Talking about the Heat minus 5.5 versus the Clippers. That is the BetOnline.net line for that. Oh, boy.”
MIA 115, LAC 110 — Heat beat Clippers 115-110; LA Clippers +5.5 covers, losing by only 5 (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to lay the points here. Blowout special, Iowa Hawkeyes over the rival. The Iowa State Cyclones tonight, college basketball. Oh, that's a good one right there. Really one to be paying attention to. Iowa versus Iowa State. Nice little rivalry right there. Blowout special on the show. The Hawkeyes minus four versus Iowa State.”
IOWA 75, ISU 56 — Iowa beat Iowa State 75-56; Iowa Hawkeyes -4 covers by a 19-point margin (ESPN box score).
“If it does play out that way then you got to win and you going to cover the 6 spread On top of all that the Rams offensive line has used 12 different starting combinations and they are awful. I mean, you talk about bad offensive lines. You watch the film. I mean, these guys, they just can't play. They're not playing at a high level here. So, yeah, the Rams are also coming off playing Seattle, a team they're familiar with, not familiar with Vegas here. It just looks like the coaching staff has quit. There's no energy there. Maybe the lone bright spot has been Cam Akers, whose career looked like maybe it was over. I mean, they couldn't find any takers for him. He had two TDs last week. He might do a little bit, but behind very little blocking and no receivers. I think that the Rams are in real trouble here. Level two lock on Thursday. We're going with the Las Vegas Raiders here over the L.A. Rams. Boom, there it is right there. I've been saying all week long, Lee, that there really is no reason for the Raiders to lose this game because of every reason that you just mentioned. But, of course, there's a reason why the game is played, right? It's not just going to be a simulated W. They've got to go out there and get it done. But, man, the Rams are in a bad place. And lucky for them, they have a Super Bowl ring and a Super Bowl trophy at Lombardi up in their facility. So at least they can hold on to that for a couple years and feel good about themselves. But, man, with no draft picks, really lack of draft capital after selling their soul to make sure that they got all the players they needed, They're in a bad position even to get that team rebuilt right now. So there you go. Raiders and Rams. Week 14 is about to be underway. BetOnline.net line for that one. Raiders minus 6.5 versus the LA Rams.”
LAR 17, LV 16 — Rams beat Raiders 17-16 on Thursday Night Football; Las Vegas Raiders -6.5 busts by only a 1-point margin (ESPN box score).
“I'm taking Penn State. I'm laying the three and a half points. Blowout special, number one, over Michigan State tonight, Big Ten action.”
MSU 67, PSU 58 — Michigan State beat Penn State 67-58; Penn State -3.5 busts by losing outright (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take Boston here. I think they're on a mission here. I think right now they're the best team in the NBA. I'm going to lay the small spot here, minus one and a half here. We're going to get a blowout special here in Phoenix.”
PHX 98, BOS 125 — Celtics beat Suns 125-98; Boston Celtics -1.5 covers by a 27-point margin (ESPN box score).
“i'm gonna play it right now while it's minus nine here i think this line's gonna end up minus 10 10 and a half get on it early get on it often get on it big here buffalo bills minus nine over the new york jets here level two lock on wednesday”
BUF 20, NYJ 12 — Bills beat Jets 20-12; Buffalo Bills -9 busts by only an 8-point margin (ESPN box score).
“Wrong team favorite here. L.A. Lakers plus the points here over Cleveland. In Cleveland, I might even sprinkle some on the money line. Man, there it is right there. The Lake Show coming on strong. AD's doing what he does. And LeBron, well, it's still LeBron James. I do like Patrick Beverly. He is such a gnat when it comes to defense, man. He's one of those guys, if he's on your team, you love him. If he's not, then you hate him. It's just that simple. There you go. That's how we get started. WTF, the wrong team. Favorite. Talk about the Cavaliers. Minus four and a half versus the LA Lakers.”
CLE 116, LAL 102 — Cavaliers beat Lakers 116-102; LA Lakers +4.5 busts, losing outright by 14 (ESPN box score).
“later one and a half goals minus 105 blowout special here caroline hurricanes here over the anaheim mighty ducks”
ANA 4, CAR 3 — Ducks beat Hurricanes 4-3 in OT; Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 busts, winning by only 1 (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to play it right now. We're going to go all the way up, maybe for the first time ever on a Tuesday, level three lock, over 51 and a half, Miami Dolphins, LA Chargers on Sunday.”
LAC 23, MIA 17 — Chargers beat Dolphins 23-17 (40 combined points); Over 51.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm picking Kent State here in the 15 points. They not going to win outright but wrong team favored Kent State plus 15 tonight late night at Gonzaga”
GONZ 73, KENT 66 — Gonzaga beat Kent State 73-66; Kent State +15 covers by a 7-point margin (ESPN box score).
“Laying the three points, depleted Phoenix roster, a bunch of other guys for game time decision here. Blowout special, Dallas Mavericks tonight over the Phoenix Suns.”
DAL 130, PHX 111 — Mavericks beat Suns 130-111; Dallas Mavericks -3 covers by a 19-point margin (ESPN box score).
“We're going to start off the week with a level two lock on Monday Night Football. football new orleans saints win outright 24 20”
TB 17, NO 16 — Buccaneers beat Saints 17-16 on Monday Night Football; New Orleans Saints moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“But at plus 333 we got a lot of momentum here We going to go with Betalittle win a lot the USA to beat the Netherlands plus 333 in the knockout round tomorrow morning”
NED 3, USA 1 — Netherlands beat USA 3-1 in the World Cup Round of 16; United States moneyline loses (ESPN match report).
“So we're going to go with the wrong team favorite, Miami Heat, plus eight over the Boston Celtics tonight, the NBA.”
BOS 116, MIA 120 — Heat beat Celtics 120-116 in OT; Miami Heat +8 covers by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“and uh in kansas city wins this one 35 25 there it is right there wow 35 25 got double digit win for kc over cincinnati”
CIN 27, KC 24 — Bengals beat Chiefs 27-24; Kansas City Chiefs moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“i like tulane lay the three and a half here level three lock all the way up here college football aac championship tulane green wave”
TULN 45, UCF 28 — Tulane beat UCF 45-28 in the AAC Championship Game; Tulane -3.5 covers by a 17-point margin (ESPN box score).
“So didn't play great last week, but I just love Tennessee as an underdog here. I think the wrong team's favorite. I think they win this game outright and knock off Philadelphia 27-23.”
PHI 35, TEN 10 — Eagles beat Titans 35-10; Tennessee Titans moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Hurricanes money line, minus 135 versus the Blues. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, it's been a roller coaster this year for St. Louis, even though they're 11-11. You'd think it'd be a team that wins and then loses back and forth, but not the case. So they start off the season on a three-game winning streak. Then that was followed by an eight-game losing streak. Then a seven-game winning streak, and now they've lost three of the last four. So almost every one of these games, though, I think boils down to whether or not Jordan Bingston, And the goalie here has had a good game that night during the most recent seven-game winning streak. Gave up just 2.3 goals per game. But during this stretch where they've lost three of four, they've averaged giving up 4.75 goals per game. Just used to be a top-three goalie. But things have, I think, completely fallen off the rails for him. He hasn't found the consistency since that Blues run where they won the Stanley Cup in 2019. team. Carolina is not a team you want to face tonight if you're Binghamton because here he gave up four goals last time he faced them. He's 1-5 with 25 goals allowed against non-conference teams this season So teams he not familiar with seems to have some real problems here Just like the Blues have started to fade again Carolina starting to break out of a small slump They had lost five straight and four in overtime This team just does not go on losing streaks very often, despite the struggles. Carolina's power play starting to pick things up. They still rank towards the top in possession metrics, and they're starting to get healthy. I'm just not buying what the St. Louis Blues are selling right now. I got to see them Thursday night last week, and I just think they need to change things up before they can be taken seriously the rest of the season here. I think the Hurricanes win this game 3-1, 4-2 here. We're going to go with a blowout special. Carolina Hurricanes, money line, minus 135 over the St. Louis.”
STL 4, CAR 6 — Hurricanes beat Blues 6-4; Carolina Hurricanes moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the 17.5 points. Georgia, blowout special, 41-16 over LSU in the SEC championship game on Saturday afternoon.”
UGA 50, LSU 30 — Georgia beat LSU 50-30 in the SEC Championship Game; Georgia -17.5 covers by a 20-point margin (ESPN box score).
“We're going to take a different approach to this game, over 138 total points. Texas here and Creighton, two top 10 teams, much easier way to win. we're going all the way up on thursday level three lock over texas creighton”
72-67 — Texas beat Creighton 72-67 (139 combined points); Over 138 covers (ESPN box score).
“Kings minus four versus the Pacers. Lee, why am I watching this game? Break it down for me. Okay. So first of all, you're not going to see these two teams with winning records usually this late in the season. So let's give them some credit here. Let's give them some love. But we have a situational play here where Indiana, third game on the road of a seven-game Western swing here. And I think they're just feeling good about themselves. They took the second game of the road trip. They beat the Lakers on Monday night, 116 to 115. They had to come back after trailing by eight points after three quarters. So they had to expend a lot of energy in that game. And now they're going to face Sacramento. And Sacramento is one of these teams, I think they're really talented. And also you get a situational play where you get a couple players who are coming over from Indiana to Sacramento, have something to prove. I just like the way that they share the ball. And they're also young. I mean, I love the draft choice of Kagan Murray. He started slow. He's starting to come around. And then talk about the trade, DeMontis Sabonis. He's only 26 years old. It seems like he's been playing forever in the NBA. This is his seventh year in the NBA, and I think he's got something to prove. Here's a guy that does really almost everything, plays over 32 minutes a game. He averages 16.9 points per game, 11 rebounds a game, and also 6.4 assists. You usually don see a guy that seven foot averaging that many assists So just think that he got something to prove I think he going to be able to shoot over Indiana And just think that this Indiana team you know they okay They just don't have a lot of depth. I also like the bench here for Sacramento. And why do I like the bench? I like their top two guys. And Malik Monk, who came over from Charlotte, played there for quite a few years, He is just explosive off the bench and consistent. And then also you're familiar with De'Veon Mitchell, who is from Baylor. Really good guy. Rarely turns the ball over. Averaging just 1.1 turnover per game. So I just think that this is a team at home. Lines low. I think this is my hidden gem for Wednesday. We're going to go with the Sacramento Kings laying the four points over the Indiana Pacers.”
Sacramento 137, Indiana 114 — Sacramento routed Indiana 137-114; Kings -4 covers the 23-point win (ESPN box score).
“Buckeyes [6:59] are sitting at 5-1. Their only loss [7:01] was actually in Maui, the [7:03] first game over there. And remember, [7:05] that loss was to San Diego State. San Diego [7:07] State, not a real long flight from [7:09] San Diego over to Maui. [7:11] And Ohio State, that's a long, long flight. [7:14] And I think it affected them. [7:16] They looked sluggish down the stretch in that game. [7:19] They did settle in the next game and ended up blasting Cincinnati by 28. [7:24] So I think that they'll be ready for this game. [7:27] Why? [7:28] Their last game was last Wednesday, a whole week to prepare during a college basketball season. [7:35] So even though it's a road trip, I think they'll be ready to go. [7:38] I think they're the better team. [7:39] I think that they're underrated. [7:41] I love Bryce Sensabal. [7:44] This is a kid who's come in as a freshman forward. [7:47] He is delivering. [7:49] He's connecting on 52.5% of his field goals, averaging almost 16 points per game here. [7:56] Also, Justice Suing, he scored 33 in their win against Texas Tech. [8:02] And then Zed Key, three double-doubles so far this year. [8:06] the junior forward, averaging 12.5 points per game, also 8.5 rebounds. [8:12] I think the Duke team is a work in progress. [8:15] I don't see any one player that scares me here. [8:18] And then also, I think that you look at the rankings, [8:21] and some people look at the rankings and are like, oh, okay, Duke is 17, [8:26] Ohio State's 25th. [8:28] I think that Ohio State should be ranked above Duke here. [8:31] So this Duke team, when they played the only two teams, [8:35] They had to match up against who were decent at all. [8:37] Kansas and Purdue just didn't match up, I thought, in my opinion. [8:41] So all the other wins were against absolute nobodies here So I think like you said Ohio State underrated here I like their defense here And when you play good defense Duke is going to have to take a lot of threes here [8:56] And they're averaging over 22 threes per game. [8:59] You live and die by the three. [9:01] You're going to more than often die by the three here. [9:04] Wrong team favorite. [9:06] Ohio State, they win this game outright over Duke. [9:10] Big Ten ACC Challenge on Wednesday night. [9:13] Nice. I like it right there. [9:14] And I'll tell you, I know it's early in the college basketball season, [9:16] but, man, it seems like there's so much unpredictable. [9:18] Like, you just don't know what team is going to show up. [9:22] I think these guys are still feeling their way out [9:24] and feeling their way through the season [9:25] and seeing plenty of upsets so far this year in college basketball. [9:30] And it's very early on. [9:31] So that's why we watch the game. [9:32] That's why we love the game. [9:33] So there's a good one. [9:34] Big Ten ACC Challenge. [9:36] Love these tournaments. [9:37] Duke minus 5.5 versus Ohio State.”
Duke 81, Ohio State 72 — Duke beat Ohio State 81-72; Ohio State +5.5 loses outright by 9 (ESPN).
“trailblazer holland minus 140 versus steven wonder boy thompson break this one down for us lee okay so this fight was a couple years ago i'd go for the wonder boy really good stand up um he has a couple different type of kicks that can be effective here but he's now 39 kevin holland sitting at 30 years old um you know sometimes you know he just wanted to be entertaining and have fun out there, talk too much. He's cut on that a whole lot here and think that there's really not many ways that the Wonderboy can win this fight here. So, age is certainly in Holland's favor. Thompson's chin and reaction time could play into this fight. If Stephen Thompson can't dominate on the feet, I don't know what he's going to do. He really has no other options. Not much of a grappler or submitter. I think Kevin Holland has better power, range, speed. Some people remember, okay, he took the last fight against Kamzad Khomeyev on short notice actually one day, took it one day before the fight. He wasn't a wrestler, and neither is Thompson. So I think this fight is mainly going to be in the stand-up here. Both have similar records. Ten and five in the UFC is Kevin Holland, Wonderboy. He's 11, six, and one here. Two guys going, I think, in different directions here. And also, Kevin Holland, 81-inch reach advantage. So I think there's a lot of different ways that Holland can win this fight. He can win it knocking him out. He can win it through submission here. He can win it by decision. I'm going with Kevin Holland here, minus the 140. I'm taking the trailblazer here. Blowout special in the UFC.”
Stephen Thompson defeated Kevin Holland by TKO (corner stoppage) after round 4 at UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland; the Holland moneyline loses (Wikipedia, corroborating event record).
“USC minus two and a half versus Utah. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Utah won the first game. October 15th, 43-42, the game was played in Salt Lake City. Not many people saw the game. It was one of those late-night games that, you know, people after watching a full day of college football aren't up for it. And I watched it and had nothing on either side. I said, you know what? I think the wrong team won this game here. So there was a bunch of bad calls, the Pac-12 officiating and also Mountain West, two of the worst I've seen. And there were two late hit calls on the quarterback, on the Utah quarterback, that were clean tackles and not late hits here. They kept drives alive for Utah, and they turned a potential punt on third down and a field goal try into touchdowns. So that is 11 to 14 points right there. I think USC just looked a step or two faster at the skill positions. And surprisingly, USC's defense held Utah's strong running game to just 138 rushing yards on the day. USC wide receiver Jordan Addison left the game in the third quarter. If he doesn't leave that game, I think they score probably over 50 points in that game. And as good as Cam Rising is for Utah, I think USC quarterback Caleb William is flat out better here. USC, they're the right side. They should be the favorite here. They'll get it done. USC laying the two-and-a-half here. Level two luck over Utah. Pac-12 championship. We want to bet it now because we don't want to have this line go to three, three-and-a-half, or four points.”
Utah 47, USC 24 — Utah routed USC 47-24 in the Pac-12 Championship; USC -2.5 loses outright (ESPN box score).
“kings minus 125 with the take back being plus 115 break this one down for us lee so the seattle kraken believe it or not are second in the Pacific Division behind your Vegas Golden Knights And they in unfamiliar territory right now They're on a franchise record five-game winning streak that includes three wins against top postseason competitors like the Rangers, Kings, and Knights. But this streak and performance so far this year is no fluke. This team is good, and I think they know it. This group has 11 players with 10-plus points this season. Did not have anything close to that last year. I mean, they just got a bunch of guys. They were handed a bunch of guys who were not very good. But they really massaged this lineup here. And all of a sudden, they ranked sixth in the NHL in scoring at 3.57 goals per game. Keep an eye on Matty Beneers for Seattle, too. He was the second overall pick 2021 draft. Kraken brought him up to the NHL earlier than they wanted to because they just had no center depth. Their center depth was probably the worst in the NHL last year, but the kid has put together 18 points in 21 games. He has nine points in his last four games, and is the primary reason this team is excelling out of nowhere. Not a ton was expected from the Kraken this season, but there were high hopes for the L.A. Kings coming in. They traded for Kevin Faiola and the youngest team in the NHL last season, but it just hasn't lived up to the hype quite yet. The goaltendings here for them rank 27th in the league save percentage. They've lost four or five, and they're just not getting any consistency up front. The problem for L.A. is that they just can't survive when one or two of their top forwards has a down couple of games. So there's just not enough talent up front on this roster for L.A. to make up for a couple of slow games from their stars. I say take the Kraken here. I got them predicting, I'm thinking like a 4-2 win. So we're going to go with the Seattle Kraken here. Moneyline plus 115. Wrong team favorite over the L.A. Kings.”
Seattle 9, Los Angeles 8 — Seattle beat the LA Kings 9-8 in overtime; the Kraken moneyline wins outright (ESPN box score).
“Golden State minus 1.5 versus the Mavs. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so Golden State's starting to figure it out. They've won five or six games, playing extremely well, sharing the ball. I mean, everyone, even Jordan Poole on the bench is scoring. So just a team that's finally finding themselves. And then on the other side, the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas Mavericks have lost four in a row. They have a losing record, and here's why. So we all know Luka Doncic is incredible. the averaging 33 points per game averaging 8.7 rebounds averaging 8.4 assists but he plays no defense so he needs the complementary players around him to rebound to play good defense and to hit timely threes they haven been able to do it Look at Tim Hardaway Jr Now I know he missed most of the rest of the season last year the second half but his field goal percentage, is a guy playing almost 24 minutes per game, 31.1%. That's field goal percentage. Usually, you're in the low to mid-40s as a shooting guard, you know, small forward. three-point field goal percentage, 29.4. Then some other players like Dorian Finley-Smith, hitting just 33.7 of his three-pointers. Also, Maxie Cleaver, how bad has he been this year? He's playing almost 25 minutes per game, hitting just 30.8 here from the three-point line. So they just are not getting production from these guys. Spencer Dinwiddie playing pretty well. He's averaging 17 points per game. But when you have your third, fourth, fifth, and sixth guys that play a lot of minutes, just not contributing, not playing defense, it's just not good enough. So I just like where Golden State sits right now. You see them with a record like 11 and 10. But this is where they go on an absolute roll. You just feel the positive vibe going here. Look at what's going on here with Green, Dream on Green. He made a comment here. He was saying that everyone's been open. Everyone's knocking down shots here. And you could just tell there's a lot of good things going on there. They're scoring points. They're playing defense here. So we're going to go with a blowout special on Tuesday. rematch of the Western Conference Finals where Golden State won 4-1 here. I think they take this one too here. Golden State here, blowout special.”
Dallas 116, Golden State 113 — Dallas beat Golden State 116-113; Warriors -1.5 loses outright since Golden State lost the game (ESPN box score).
“Clemson minus 1.5 versus Penn State. Break this one down for us, Lee. So this could actually be the Orange Bowl game. There's a better chance in football that it's going to be Tennessee playing in this game as opposed to Penn State. But it looks like Clemson is pretty much locked into the Orange Bowl game. But who knows, anything could happen. It'd be funny if they played tonight and then again in the Orange Bowl football game. But I'm looking at this game, and I'm saying to myself, and I think the public is going to say, oh, Clemson's at home. You know, they have a decent basketball team over the last decade. They'll take a Penn State team. But a lot of people don't know what's going on at Penn State. So Penn State hired a coach named Micah Shrewsbury. He was hired last year, and they started off slow. But they got better and better. In fact, to end the season, they won two games in the Big Ten Conference tournament. Made some noise there. And, you know, it was a tough time to hire a coach just coming out of COVID. But a guy with a really good background. Was three years the associate head coach at Purdue. He knows the conference. Before that, coached seven years. He's an assistant for the Boston Celtics. Before that, Purdue and Butler for many years. So this is a guy that knows the area He even assistant at DePaul for a while So really good recruiter has eight seniors on the roster and they actually as far as recruiting had their best recruiting class ever a top 30 class So you don think of Penn State and basketball same direction So they have one loss this year to a really good Virginia Tech team by two points. Other than that, I mean, they pretty much blew every single team out. They played some decent teams. I'm talking about Colorado State, who is under the radar, and also Butler, beat both of those teams by 12 and 6 points. On the other side, Clemson is 5-2, lost to South Carolina, lost to a not very good Iowa team. And then the only wins they have are against Citadel, South Carolina, Upstate, Bellarmine, Loyola, Maryland, and a horrible, a horrible, you normally look at the schedule and you're like, oh, Cal, that's a nice win. They won by eight. Cal has not won a game. Cal is 0-7, team that lost to Southern UC Davis, my Texas State Bobcats, UC San Diego, and the list goes on and on. So I'm not impressed here. This is the start. First game, right out of the gate, Big Ten ACC Challenge here. We're going to go with a level two lock on Tuesday. I like it a lot here. Penn State, they get the win here on the road at Clemson,”
Clemson 101, Penn State 94 — Clemson beat Penn State 101-94 in double overtime; Penn State +1.5 loses outright (ESPN).
“Arkansas minus 18.5 versus Troy. This is a hidden gem. Lee, break this one down. All right, so a lot of people don't know about this Troy Trojans team. They're sitting at 6-1, and you're saying, okay, well, haven't played much of a schedule except for playing at Florida State, which they won 79-72. This is the game I think that these kids are excited about, getting to play a top-10-ranked team on the road. When you can score, it gives you a shot here. So when you look at Troy, they're number 16 in the country. They average 86 points a game. So when you're looking at an underdog, you say, okay, you're going to play a high-powered team, up-tempo offense against another team that likes to run. Can they score? If you can't score, usually you lay off. But if you can score and they average 86 a game, think about it. this line is almost 20 points. If they score 70 points, 70, just ask them to score 70, then Arkansas has got to score over 90 probably. So that makes it really, really tough, especially in college basketball. This isn't the NBA. You talk about some different type of guys and facing different type of offense and different type of defense. They have some guys that are just fun, fun, fun to watch. So they got this kid named Nelson Phillips. He tied a record for steals. Guess how many steals he had in the game last game. I can only imagine. I'm going to say eight. 13. Wow. Wow. He was plus 61 in his 27 minutes. This is a guy that is an absolute disruptor. So besides those 13 steals, he had 22 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists. So I just think that this kid is really a lot of fun to watch, and now they're going to face an Arkansas team. Who's at the Maui Classic? They played Creighton, top-ranked Creighton team, and they lost 90-87. Then they had to come from behind and beat San Diego State, two top-ranked teams in Hawaii. Then they come home after playing that game late at night and have to play four days later. I don think that their focus is here I think they really talented but sometimes just get some great situational spots I could see this game being like an 85 game 85 So we going to take the points here Almost 20 points you're getting here. Hidden gem. Troy Trojans here as they go to Arkansas. Keep it close.”
Arkansas 74, Troy 61 — Arkansas beat Troy 74-61; Troy +18.5 covers the 13-point loss (ESPN box score).
“The Raptors minus 2.5 versus the Cavaliers. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, betting the NBA is about situational betting. You play three or four games a night, you're going to get destroyed. I don't know anyone that can play that many games. Or you need to specialize in things like totals. But here's a great situational play. Cleveland played Toronto opening night in Toronto. Close game, but they lost the game. So they have to be thinking about that. Hey, we're a really good team, sitting at 13-7. They're also 12-7-2 against this spread. Toronto, every year. I don't know what it is. They're coached so well, they overperformed. They're 10-9. They're 11-8 against this spread. So, this is a great situational play where I think Cleveland will be up for this game. Donovan Mitchell, is he on fire here? He scored at least 29 points in four straight games, Had a 34.9 against Portland here, and he's averaging over 30 points per game here on the season. So he's picked right up where he left off after leaving Utah. Some guys, it takes him a while to get acclimated. Evan Mobley, six double-doubles this month here. So he had a 26-year-old, 21-year-old, and sometimes the line, they're like, oh, okay, we're going to put a line here because they're playing a back-to-back. This is a really young team looking for revenge, and Toronto will be without Pascal Siakam here again for possibly his fifth straight game. So without him, this is a team that has to shoot from the outside, and they just have not been able to shoot from outside. They have shot this year 33% from deep, and you're just not going to continue on winning when you can't shoot from the outside. and also have no inside game without your best player. So I think Cleveland's going to be ready for this game here. They're going to be able to exact revenge from that 108-105 win when they played opening night here. Wrong team favorite. The streaking Cleveland Cavaliers, who've won five out of six, make it six out of seven tonight in Toronto.”
Toronto 100, Cleveland 88 — Toronto beat Cleveland 100-88; Cavaliers +2.5 loses outright by 12 (ESPN box score).
“The Colts minus 2.5 versus Steelers. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so the storyline, number one storyline is Jeff Saturday. How can he continue to do being an inexperienced coach brought in in the middle of the season Well first two times passed the test They beat the Raiders And even though they didn beat the Eagles gave them a really tough test that went right down to the wire Now they're favored for the first time at home, and they're going to face the Steelers. Can he pick it? Where's his development? Well, I think he's going to get there eventually. Like I said, eventually. He's not there yet. Not quite up to top levels reading defenses, even though they're trying to speed up the process, but just three touchdowns and eight interceptions on the year. In fact, he's been sacked 14 times in the last three games. His offensive line, I think, is bottom five in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor starting to return to form, 231 rushing yards the last two weeks here. Now, T.J. Watt coming back on defense helps him out here, but I still think Pittsburgh is just not getting enough production from the receivers. I mean, they'll make some great catches. I think Pickett might eventually be a nice number one, but he dropped some balls here. Johnson, Deontay Johnson, dropped some balls here. And also Matt Ryan has looked better the second time around being inserted as a starter here. We're going to lay the two and a half points here. Level one lock to start the week. Indianapolis Colts tonight over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.”
Pittsburgh 24, Indianapolis 17 — Pittsburgh beat Indianapolis 24-17; Colts -2.5 loses outright (ESPN box score).
“The Bengals minus 3 versus the Titans. Lee, I'm missing something here. Break this one down for me. All right, so Cincinnati, they went to the Super Bowl last year, and I think that's why they're still getting so much love from the betting public and played a great game last week. But I still don't think they're that good. I think the offensive and defensive lines are not a championship level. And remember, this is the game that the Tennessee Titans want. This is their circle game. They lost in the playoffs to these Cincinnati Bengals. So if you watched the game last week, Ryan Tannehill looked amazing at Green Bay. And I've been wanting to criticize him early and often. His leadership skills, throwing interceptions, key moments, especially in the game last year, cost his team. But he was on fire. And one of I have my ten rules You have to live and die and abide by these 10 rules in my opinion if you want to be a successful gambler And one of them is don go against a red quarterback And Ryan Tannehill is red-hot right now. So they're even getting some production out of the receivers. I like their tight ends. And last year when they played in this game, Derrick Henry had not played in two and a half months. He wanted this game cold. He was not the same. He was about 75%, 80%. He's 100% now. No, he might be 110%. I think he's ready to do some damage on the Cincinnati defense here. Hey, I love Joe Burrow. I love what he brings to the game. I love his talent. I love just his whole moxie. But Cincinnati's going down on Sunday here. Wrong team favorite. Tennessee Titans protect the home field. They exact that revenge here over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.”
Cincinnati 20, Tennessee 16 — Cincinnati beat Tennessee 20-16; Titans +3 loses outright since Cincinnati won (ESPN box score).
“The Grizzlies minus 2.5 versus the Pelicans. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right. So 10 days ago, these two teams played. And what happened? Oh, the New Orleans Pelicans, they took it to Memphis. That game was being played in New Orleans. But since that time, New Orleans kept on rolling, won five out of six. Memphis has lost four to five. The NBA season is a long, long race. And you can have some great moments, but it's all about picking spots. And these kids, well, they're not kids. These NBA players, I think of them as kids sometimes because they could be my kids. They're so young. What they do is they get up for games, and there's some games they just cruise. I think that this Memphis team wants to send a message. In that game, the first game when they played 10 days ago, New Orleans shot 47% from three-point land. Memphis, 25%. They were just chucking away nine for 35. So they didn't get any production out of their stores except for John Morant. So I think they come to play here. Also, McCallum will not play in this game for New Orleans, and I think they need him for the outside shooting and the balance, the inside and outside game. Without him, things just don't seem to move as well. So I'm going to take Memphis at home, minus a small spot here. Memphis Grizzlies minus the two and a half points against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight”
Memphis 132, New Orleans 111 — Memphis routed New Orleans 132-111; Grizzlies -2.5 covers the 21-point win (ESPN box score).
“North Carolina, who's 9-2. NC State is 7-4. BetOnline.net line is North Carolina's minus 6.5 versus NC State. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so normally this is an underdog series. The underdog has been very successful. And probably looking at the record, you're like, oh, okay. Wolfpack, not much different from the Tar Heels. The Tar Heels lost last week. Should have won that game. They got upset. They were up big. I think they up 17 and just fell asleep And then one of their best receivers drops the ball in the end zone would have been a touchdown that wins the game But the Wolfpack is 7 not far behind the Tar Heels 9 But the Wolfpack is 3-8 against the spread. They're one of these teams that, you know, when things are looking great, you go against them. So now Devin Leary, he went out midseason. Without him, they are just not the same. In fact, they're averaging just 18 points. That's right, 18 points per game on offense since he went out here. Drake May, the quarterback for North Carolina, I think he's going to be playing at the next level. He's a freshman. When you watch this kid pass and throw the football, clearly one of the top ten quarterbacks in college football, maybe one of the top five. So after Leary went out for North Carolina State, their backup looks like he's hurt and may not be able to play. So I think Josh Downs, who dropped that ball in the end zone, really good receiver, number 11. I mean, he's almost unguardable. He'll make up for it. Just one of those things. Even great players, they have play or fail once in a while. So I look for Drake May and Josh Downs to go wild here. North Carolina, you know, after a bad game, they come back and they score early and often 13th in the country in scoring, averaging over 38 points per game here. Like I said, North Carolina State, I mean, I think they're going to get blown out here. We're going to finish the week on Friday all the way up. Level three lock today. North Carolina over North Carolina State.”
NC State 30, North Carolina 27 — NC State beat North Carolina 30-27 in double overtime; UNC -6.5 loses outright (ESPN).
“Arizona minus 2.5 versus Creighton. Break this one down for us, Lee. And both teams can score. Yes. I mean, they can light it up. Creighton averaging 83.6 per game. They scored 90 points in their last game last night against Arkansas. Arizona averaging, get this, 104.3 points per game. They scored 87 points in their last game. They also hit on 59 from the field and 45 of the three But I just think that Creighton might be the right side here So they making over 50 of their shots for the season which is very impressive, making over 40% of their three-pointers here. But the difference here might come down to a very unselfish team. They find that open man, and they also hit the offensive glass. So it might come down to little things, rebounding here. I know Arizona's won five straight games, been great offensively. They've made over 60% of their shots, but they're not good on the offensive glass, and they're also turnover-prone here. And Creighton forces turnovers here. They've held five of the six opponents under 70 points here. I like the Creighton coaching staff just a little bit better here. Wrong team favorite, Maui final. we're going with Creighton 5 p.m. Eastern today over Arizona.”
Arizona 81, Creighton 79 — Arizona beat Creighton 81-79 in the Maui Invitational championship; Creighton +2.5 covers the 2-point loss (ESPN box score).
“The Vikings minus 2.5 versus the Patriots. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, and the Vikings are hosting their first ever Thanksgiving Day game. I think they're going to be fired up. They were in a bad spot last week. I love Dallas as far as the matchups. Dallas needed that game. Just think of Minnesota, just one of those days. You know what? It only counts as one loss. So they can come back here. Best thing about playing Thanksgiving Day is it's four days later. They are at home. We're going to see New England on the short week. I'm not a Mac Jones fan. I think he's pedestrian here. I say bring on Bailey Zappi. He might be the better alternative. Also, New England could be down two starting offensive linemen. Center, David Andrews, and left tackle Isaiah Wynn. Both got hurt in that Jets game and could be out for this game here. A low-out special. We're going to take the Minnesota Vikings 26-20 over the New England Patriots on Thanksgiving night.”
Minnesota 33, New England 26 — Minnesota beat New England 33-26 on Thanksgiving; the Vikings -2.5 covers the 7-point win (ESPN box score).
“Ole Miss minus 2.5 versus Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so first of all, I don't see Lane Kiffin moving to Auburn. It's a lateral move at best. And you know what? He goes 8-4 better every year, and they're carrying him off the field practically at Ole Miss. Auburn, 8-4. You got the alumni upset. I just don't get it. I think that he is not going to take this job here. I think he told his team yesterday that he's staying put. I think they're happy. Now, did he coach a great game against Alabama? Should have stuck with the run longer. If he would have stuck with it, I think they win that game here. They are that good. Think about it. Ole Miss should have beaten Alabama. They were the better team that day. Mississippi State couldn't compete with Alabama. They got drummed in that game here. So it's also a game of matchups here. You get a run-happy host, which is Ole Miss, versus a pass-happy visitor. And I normally at least lean to the pass-happy underdog in a matchup, but this pass-happy dog is completing just 61% of their passes for just 5.8 yards per attempt in the SEC. That's not good enough here. I think Ole Miss is going to run it right down their throats. Bad setup last week, like Minnesota. Just a bad matchup. Also, Ole Miss was coming off that Alabama game. I just thought they were going to be slow starters, and they were. They run the ball league-best 5.7 yards per carry. Get that. They run for as many yards per carry as Mississippi State does here when they're attempting passes here. Ole Miss, they get the job done. They'll carry that Egg Bowl trophy off on Thursday night. Ole Miss, 36-24 over Mississippi State.”
Mississippi State 24, Ole Miss 22 — Mississippi State beat Ole Miss 24-22 in the Egg Bowl; Ole Miss -2.5 loses outright (ESPN box score).
“Arkansas's 4-0. Creighton is 5-0. Something's got to give. BetOnline.net live for this one. Arkansas minus one versus Creighton. Break this one down for us, Lee. Oh, this can be a fun game. This might be one of the best college basketball games of the year, and it's happening before Thanksgiving. So I can realistically think that both of these teams have a shot believe it or not to get to the Final Four They coached well They can shoot the basketball Both teams don shy away from playing good teams before they get in a conference play Blue Jays of Creighton have won five straight games. Really good offensive team. They've shot the ball well, 85 points per game. They're scoring, and they not only make shots from the field, they shoot free throws extremely well. Arkansas also has played well so far, but has not played the level of competition. Creighton got to play Texas Tech yesterday, and they played well. They can win pretty much any style of game. So when you look at the Razorbacks here, they're up and down with their shot. Not real good from three-point land, which, you know, can hurt you. And also, they've struggled at the free-throw line. And then when you struggle with the free throw line, close games, eventually it's going to cost you a game or two here. So I think Creighton actually plays better defense here. And I think that maybe slowing down the game is going to create some problems here for this Arkansas team. So we're going to go with the wrong team favorite here in the semifinal, the Maui Invitational here. I think Creighton plus a one point wins the game here. Like I said, wrong team favorite. Creighton tonight over the Arkansas Razorbacks.”
Creighton 90, Arkansas 87 — Creighton beat Arkansas 90-87 in the Maui Invitational; Creighton +1 wins outright (ESPN box score).
“Miami of Ohio minus 2.5 versus Ball State. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so watching Ball State this year, they have one super player. His name is Carson. I call him Man of Steel. Carson Steel is his name. I don't think he has a nickname. He leads the MAAC in rushing with 1,376 yards. That's ninth in the entire college football landscape. And last week had 96 yards on 14 carries and got hurt right before halftime. They're not telling us exactly what it was, but it looked like a possible concussion. If he is not in the lineup, they got problems. Okay, so the second half of the game, they had minus two yards in rushing. So he's one of these guys, if he doesn't play, they just can't get it going. John Paddock, their quarterback, you know, mediocre. But he throws interceptions here in five straight games here. Both these teams are five and six. Whoever wins, plays in a bowl game. You lose, you go home. Always tough to travel when you've got to go on the road in these midweek games here. uh weather looks to be good and I like the way the Red Hawks they can do it any of two ways they can run the football or they can pass their quarterback Brett Gabbard didn't play last week I have a feeling he going to play in this game it means that much so don be surprised if he plays Even if he doesn his backup has looked good here So I just like the way they can beat you a couple different ways here And then they have a receiver, Mack Hippenhammer. What a name, Mack Hippenhammer. But not just a nickname, not a name. 46 catches for 856 yards and eight touchdowns. Really good in the red zone. too. So, like I said, this is a team I think has the better defense, Miami of Ohio here. Like you said, some people say, oh, they, you know, both these teams need the game. But I think Miami of Ohio is more balanced, playing at home here. They might even feed off the 7,000 or 8,000 crowd here that comes to watch them. We're going to take Miami of Ohio. I think they win this game Something like 30 to 20 here. Late at two and a half points here. Miami of Ohio, a low-out special over Ball State.”
Miami (OH) 18, Ball State 17 — Miami (OH) beat Ball State 18-17, a 1-point win that falls short of the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Montreal minus 105 versus Buffalo. Break this one down for us, Lee. So the Buffalo Sabres have hit a major skid since the calendar turned over to November. We found our spots to bet low on them early in the season, but they have come back to earth and now lost eight in a row. They have a goal differential during that time of minus 18 during these eight games here. The offense has been inconsistent, but it's been the goaltending, especially on the road that has really let them down in a big way. During the stretch, they've given up 38 goals on 244 shots here for a league-worst 844 save percentage. I thought Eric Comrie would be the guy that would take over the number one goaltending position, But 41-year-old Craig Anderson starts in this one. He's been just awful in November. Has an 0-3 record, 3.84 goals against average. And I know we talked about the Sabres team a lot early in the year. But the beauty of betting sports is you can bet one team one week and then fade them the next. So we're doing quite the opposite on Montreal here. I was low on them to start the year. A lot of question marks. Martin St. Louis, the head coach here but he's certainly turned it around here they've been pretty competitive for a team that was expected to compete for the number one overall draft pick this summer Ford Group has been respectable they averaged over three goals per game and they gone 4 in the last six games with a power play that looked solid for the first time in two years Gotten contributions from guys like Sean Monahan and Mike Hoffman These are tough guys that everyone thought were going to be on the back end of their careers. And also Jake Allen, tonight's starter in net, has really kept them in a lot of games. I don't think this is a game here for the Sabres that they get up for to end the losing streak. The goaltending mismatch is just too big here. Montreal wins something like 4-2 or 5-2. We're going to go the Montreal Canadiens' money line, minus 105 over the Buffalo Sabres.”
Buffalo 7, Montreal 2 — Buffalo routed Montreal 7-2; the Canadiens moneyline loses outright (ESPN box score).
“the 49ers minus 10 with the total being 42 but that not how you going to roll in this one Actually going to bet the money line, Arizona money line, plus 375 versus San Francisco. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so first let me explain this because my clients, we bet a two-team six-point teaser yesterday. The first part was Buffalo. Buffalo, we teased them from 7.5 down to 1.5. They won. The second half is San Francisco, and I teased it from eight points, and it was eight the entire day yesterday, down to two points. So just need them to win that bet to win by three or more. So I'm sitting pretty on that wager. But sometimes you can wager two different bets on a game. So if you're a client of mine, we're sitting real good. you might even be sitting better if you're listening to this prediction. So usually when you see a money line wager, when a team is, you know, plus 10 points, it's probably plus 250, plus 275. The Arizona money line is plus 370 to plus 375 everywhere. Shouldn't be that high. So do I think San Francisco's the better team? Absolutely. I mean, San Francisco got Christian McCaffrey. They got two great receivers. They got, you know, running backs galore. They got a quarterback who's playing well in Jimmy G. But look at Arizona. A.J. Green playing at a high level. DeAndre Hopkins listed as questionable. I think he'll play. Rondell Moore, a threat, catching the ball and running back kicks. And I do think even though both are listed as questionable, I think Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy will both be available for this game. So I think it's too high. You know, it was sitting at eight yesterday. It's now up to 10 because you're hearing the chatter and both quarterbacks are listed as questionable. If either one of them play the game, they have a fighting chance. The game is not played in San Francisco. It's played in a neutral site. Arizona's own the Niners. In fact, they're 7-1-1 against them the last nine games. So I'm going to bet here Arizona Moneyline plus $375 for every $100 wager returns $375. If they win the game, it's like winning four bets. So the only way I can lose, and if I lose this cue, you're going to be doing the show alone tomorrow. So if San Francisco wins the game by one point, it's my worst nightmare. I lose both wagers. But for my clients, if they win, if they win by two, we push. If they win by three, I have a win on that wager. If Arizona wins the game, it's actually even better. We rake it in. We're not going to the Bahamas. We might own an island in the Bahamas. So we're going to go with bet a little, win a lot here. Arizona money line over San Francisco tonight in San Francisco.”
SF 38, ARI 10 — 49ers beat the Cardinals 38-10 in Mexico City on Nov 21, 2022 behind 4 Jimmy Garoppolo TD passes; Arizona's moneyline bet loses (ESPN).
“K-State minus 11.5 versus Jayhawks. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, this is actually a big rivalry game. People don't realize around the country how intense this rivalry has been, and Kansas State has absolutely dominated it. So you look at the standings, you're like, oh, you probably think Kansas State, they don't even need this game to get into the Big 12 championship game. They actually do They need to win this game here because if they lose and Texas wins Texas is going So it is that important a game because they be tied at that point and Texas won the head-to-head. So I think that they will be focused for this game, and they don't lay off. I mean, you can go back to when Bill Snyder was there. He laid it on Kansas. And you talk about a team having some problems lately. Well, let's just start with the middle of October. Kansas gave up 52 to Oklahoma, and it could have been worse. They gave up 35 when they lost by 12 to Baylor. They gave up 16 to Oklahoma State, but Oklahoma State was playing a third-string quarterback. Then they gave up 43 to Texas Tech. Texas Tech is not a high-scoring team. If you watched them the other night, they're actually better defensively than they are offensively, and they run the ball a lot more now. So that is a lot to give up to Texas Tech. And then they gave up 55 to Texas. Kansas State needs the game here with Will Howard at quarterback. They are machine offensively. He can throw the football, maybe top five in the country right now, being a hot quarterback, one of the best running backs here, great coaching staff here. It's at Kansas State here. Are you kidding me? The line's under two touchdowns? We're going to get on it now. This line's going to only go up here. Kansas State blowout here special over Kansas on Saturday afternoon.”
KSU 47, KU 27 — Kansas State beat Kansas 47-27 in the Sunflower Showdown on Nov 26, 2022; K-State's +20 margin clears the -11.5 line (Wikipedia, sourced to the game's official box score).
“The Cowboys minus 8 versus G-Man. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so I got it at 7 last night. It's already up to 8. I think this line's going to close maybe close to 10 points. The New York Giants are in trouble right now. Their offensive line is awful. Can't block anyone. They have undoubtedly the worst receivers in the NFL, and they're banged up there. But it's the secondary. Since the mid-October game, they had October 11th. Wow. You talk about injuries. They could be down seven different secondary players, a cornerback and safety, going into this game. So they're decimated there. We know Dallas can run the ball now. Tony Pollard running and catching the ball out of the backfield. He's amazing. He's equal. Elliott's healthy again. Dak Prescott's finally 100% healthy. And the defense playing is good or better than anyone. They were all over the Minnesota passing game yesterday. So you've got a situation where one team is playing well. I know you said, hey, Dallas in the past, they win a game, lose a game. not this time this is a different year that's why sometimes you just can't rely on what happened in the past you have to look at each team going forward as soon as i saw the first 10 minutes of each of these games i'm like this is a selection i can't wait till the lines come out jump on it now here thanksgiving day here blowout special number two dallas cowboys big they obliterate the new york giants”
DAL 28, NYG 20 — Cowboys beat the Giants 28-20 on Thanksgiving, Nov 24, 2022; Dallas's margin is exactly 8, matching the -8 spread exactly, which is a push, not a cover (ESPN).
“Arizona minus 10 versus Cincinnati. Break this one down for us. Okay, the only two teams that are even decent that Cincinnati played, Cleveland State and Northern Kentucky, who's actually pretty decent, and who Cincinnati lost to in the last game by 13, scored 69 and 51 points. This Arizona team can score. They've scored 117, 95 against the Southern team. A lot of people may not know about Southern, but Southern's actually pretty good. Been in the tournament the last couple years. And actually, Utah Tech is actually decent. They scored 104 points. So you have a team that can score like the Wildcats and a team like Cincinnati that can't score. Game is being played in Hawaii. So we're going to get on this game. By the middle of the season, we're going to say, wow, Cincinnati is just not a very good team. And, boy, we should have got on Arizona earlier. So they are balanced here. The Bearcats, like I said, just cannot score at all. I mean, they can't shoot the ball. I mean, from three-point range, under 30% right now. So you've got a situation where you've got like four or five scores on this Arizona team. Last game they made 63% of their field goals. We talked about last year NBA and college basketball, and a team score is over 60%. They usually keep going and keep that going. They even shot above 54.5% on three-pointers. So I think they're familiar with this setting here. I think this is going to be a nice level one lock to open up the week here. Arizona tonight, late-night action over Cincinnati. They might double the point spread, won by 20, 25 points.”
ARIZ 101, CIN 93 — Arizona beat Cincinnati 101-93 in Hawaii on Nov 21, 2022 behind Azuolas Tubelis' 30 points; Arizona's +8 margin misses the -10 line (ESPN).
“The Baylor Bears minus five versus Virginia. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so both teams have played nobody so far. I mean, Cupcake City. Right. And sometimes when you get two ranked teams playing each other, it comes down to defense. And Virginia, I think, plays the better defense. They're 2-0. They had a cover dominating 89-42 win against Monmouth. And then they had a closer than expected 73-61 win against North Carolina Central. But the one constant that you see with Tony Bennett, who is really good. I mean, he teaches defensive principles. I've watched him many times when they play here at Miami and the ACC. And also his assistant coach is very underrated, Jason Williford and also Orlando Vandross. These guys, they must spend the first four or five days that they practice on defense because I've seen teams too many times, they can't even get a shot off for the shot clock. So they get you into the trap, and then you get trapped, and then you're in trouble. And they also take away three-pointers. And that's how Baylor's really like to go this year so far. They played another team, nobody. They played Mississippi Valley State, Norfolk, and then also Northern Colorado. of all three blowouts here. So I'm looking at the better defensive team here. Actually, if you look, I look at Ken Pomeroy and his ranking. He ranks the Bears fifth and Virginia sixth. So pretty similar squad. They return most of their players here. I just think that this is a defense that usually is in the top 10, top 15, especially taking away the three-pointer will be the difference. I'm going to take the points here. I'm going to take Virginia. I think it's going to be the wrong team favorite tonight.”
UVA 86, BAY 79 — Virginia upset Baylor 86-79 on Nov 18, 2022 with Keyonte George scoring 20 for Baylor; Virginia's outright win covers the +5 line (ESPN).
“The Bills minus 7.5 versus the Browns. Break this one down for us, Lee. Boy, that Buffalo game last week was insane against Minnesota. It reminded me a little bit of that Kansas City playoff game, the highs and the lows. Jefferson catch on fourth and 18 was insane And then who going to think Josh Allen going to fumble on the half line Then he brings him back sends it to overtime has a chance to win it and throws an interception in the red zone. I think Josh Allen is going to bounce back. He, in my opinion, is the best quarterback in the NFL. Maybe not 100%, but still good enough, I think, to beat this Cleveland team that came off a bye and laid a goose egg in Miami. We're not even competitive in that game. Jacoby Brissett just can't get it done. I mean, he's not mobile, just slow to process information. And then now I think Cleveland's just playing up the street here until Deshaun Watson comes back. Also, their weakness for Buffalo is their pass defense. And Cleveland's not a passing team. They like to run the ball with Chubb, and that's going to be a problem, I think, against Buffalo here. So no snow. It's going to be perfect conditions indoors here. and this Browns team 5-11 against the spread the last 16 games. Like I said, I think they're just playing out the string until Deshaun Watson comes back. Josh Allen's going to have a big game here. 35-16 Buffalo, blowout city over Cleveland.”
BUF 31, CLE 23 — Bills beat the Browns 31-23 at a snow-relocated game in Detroit on Nov 20, 2022; Buffalo's +8 margin clears the -7.5 line (ESPN).
“The Celtics minus 2.5 versus the Pelicans. Break this one down for us, Lee. So the Celtics are having an incredible road trip. They're going for their fifth consecutive road win here and face the Pelicans. Pelicans off a 124-110 win over Chicago is a one-and-a-half point favorite. Celtics equally hot coming off a 126-101 win against a tough Atlanta Hawks team. So both teams are playing extremely well. Boston averaging 120.4 points per game. As I said, scored 126 in the last game. He made 54.5% of their field goals, 45.7% of their three-pointers. Here are big two of Jalen Brown, Jason Tatum, playing at a high level. But they struggled defensively, giving up over 113 points per game. And I think they're going to have trouble against a New Orleans team. New Orleans is a little bit different than most teams. They rebound the ball extremely well. They hit the offensive glass hard, which most teams don't. They are averaging 116.7 points per game here. And I mentioned earlier they scored 124 points in their last game, so they're shooting equally well, 50% from the field last game, 51 on their three C McCollum playing extremely well And then also the Pelicans are going to be able to I think use some traps here I think they going to try to trap Boston here and Boston like I said on the road when you play that many games on the road this is going to be a tough tough out playing a different team that rebounds well and also hits the offensive glass so it might be a game that comes down to the wire here and I'm going to give it to the home team maybe the fatigue finally sets 10 for Boston here. We're going to go with a level one lock to end the week here. New Orleans Pelicans over the Boston Celtics on Friday night in the NBA.”
BOS 117, NO 109 — Celtics beat the Pelicans 117-109 for their 9th straight win on Nov 18, 2022; New Orleans' -8 margin misses the +2.5 line (ESPN).
“The Predators minus 115 with the take back being plus 105 for the Islanders. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, of all the teams throughout the NHL, the New York Islanders, surprisingly enough, have one of this year's strongest offenses out of the gate. They've always had a well-structured, defensive-minded team, but they average over 3.3 goals per game so far in their eight road games. They scored 33 goals. They're getting a Nashville team here that has been quite the opposite in recent years. The Preds have been pretty potent on the offense here. Roman Hosey also, Philippe also, Forsberg are guys that, you know, that can score early and often, but it's just not happening this year for the Preds. They rank second to last in the NHL in goals per game, and I don't think Nashville can keep up with such a hot team here. Just think you got the better offensive and the better defensive team here. Let's ride with the New York Islanders here. Money line, plus 105 here over the Nashville Predators.”
NSH 5, NYI 4 — Predators beat the Islanders 5-4 at Bridgestone Arena on Nov 17, 2022; New York's moneyline bet loses (ESPN).
“The Packers minus three versus the Titans. Break this one down for us, Lee. You know, maybe the Packers finally found their receiver. Christian Watson, finally healthy, scored three touchdowns, and he looks like the real deal here. So we've been waiting for this Green Bay offense to finally break out. They finally did halted a five-game losing streak, came back from two touchdowns down also in the fourth quarter. So I think they've got a lot of confidence. This Tennessee team is beaten up. They were down five starters on defense last week, including Jeffrey Simmons. It looks like he a game decision here They could be missing four five six guys on the defense here They also playing on the short week We seen that time and time again You play on the short week It is tough to game plan. You're a day short from the other team because you've got to travel. Also, this game will be mid to low 20s. I know it's pretty cold in Tennessee, but not this cold. It just feels different. Tennessee cold as compared to Green Bay, Wisconsin cold here. Aaron Rodgers just looked like different. Just reading his body language during that game last week, especially in the second half. I think Green Bay is going to give a run here. I'm going to lay the three points here. Blowout special on Thursday night. I got the Packers 31-20 over the Titans.”
TEN 27, GB 17 — Titans beat the Packers 27-17 on Thursday Night Football, Nov 17, 2022, behind Ryan Tannehill's 333 passing yards; Green Bay lost outright, missing the -3 line (ESPN).
“The Wolverines minus 6.5 versus Arizona State. Give us the details. Break this one down for us, Lee. I think it's a pretty darn good game here. The Legends classic title game being played in Brooklyn, New York, on Thursday night. And we get Michigan. I think a lot of people thought that Michigan was probably a year away from doing some damage. But you watch this team, and they have a lot of components, I think, to make a run here. So they've got Hunter Dickinson in the center. I mean, he was held, believe it or not, they win by over 20 points, and he was held to 11 points and seven rebounds by Pitt. What did they do? They double teamed. That didn't work because Jet Howard, he led Michigan with 17 points in just 19 minutes. They have a nice transfer from Duke, Joey Baker. He chipped in 14 points, four or five shooting. They win by 31 points. and I mean they've got guys off the bench that are really strong too. Jace Howard, Jets' brother and Juwan Howard's son, also real tough. I mean they've got size, they've got speed. They added a Princeton point guard, Jalen Llewellyn. He averaged 15.4 points per game last year. He hasn't even gotten hot. He's shooting just 35% from the field. So I think they going to get it going here Arizona State They had to come from behind to win that game against VCU So they try to force turnovers And this Michigan team I don think committing more than probably six seven turnovers in the game. Marcus Bagley's still out. It seems like he's always hurt for Bobby Hurley's team. And that's a problem. This is a team that just, I don't think they'd shoot well enough from the field. And if they can't create turnovers and they're going to just have picked a poison. I I mean, do you double-team Dickinson down low, over seven feet, or do you play him straight up? I think they're going to try to play him straight up, which is going to be a big problem here. I think Dickinson goes wild here. We're going to go with a level three lock all the way up, six and a half points with the 20th-ranked Michigan Wolverines. I think they blow out Arizona State, win by double digits tonight in Brooklyn.”
ASU 87, MICH 62 — Arizona State upset Michigan 87-62 in the Legends Classic on Nov 17, 2022; Michigan's -25 margin misses the -6.5 line (ESPN).
“It has to count for something. But Oklahoma State, I think they got their mojo back. I mean, obviously things didn't look great last week. And then all of a sudden, Mike Gundy, his son, ends up getting hurt. They inserted Spencer Sanders, who had not practiced the entire week. And then all of a sudden he comes in off the bench and it wasn't just him. They played like a ball of fire, the entire team, offense and defense. and I think they're going to be sky high for this game. What is OU playing for? Nothing. They're 5-5. I can see them losing this game and losing at Texas Tech next week and missing out on a bowl. So, you know, there's a lot of promise. You know, the new offense here with Dylan Gabriel. All that's well and done is, but you know what? He just doesn't have enough help around them. They just are not good enough in the red zone. Defense has been bad for half a dozen years here, And I just think Mike Gundy, I mean, you talk about a coach that knows how to win and knows how to win as an underdog, maybe none better. How about this? Look at this record, 11-2 the last 13 games as a road dog. They won last year. I think they win again straight up. I'm going to play them here plus the 7.5 points. I'm going to sprinkle some money on the money line here. Wrong team favorite in Bedlam. I'm going to go with Oklahoma State plus 7.5 over Oklahoma on Saturday.”
OU 28, OKST 13 — Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State 28-13 in the Bedlam rivalry game on Nov 19, 2022; Oklahoma State's -15 margin misses the +7.5 line (ESPN).
“The Longhorns minus one versus the Bulldogs. What's the thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so I like Gonzaga here, and here's why. They have already played a tough opponent. They played Michigan State. It's important when you're going up in a big game to have something behind you. And you talk about guys that have been there before. Drew Timmy and also Julian Strong, these two guys have been in the trenches. They've been in big games here. They were behind in that game against Michigan State, who's played on the USS Abraham Lincoln that was docked in San Diego, California, uh, trail 37, 31 at half and made a furious rally to come back and win the game. They did it under trying circumstances These kids just do not play outside anymore I think they realized once they got to like early in the second half okay no more threes We're just going to drive this fall. And they were able to adapt. This is a team that's like I've been there before. Texas, a lot of talent, really nice back court with this team. And they shut a couple teams down, but they haven't played anyone. They've held opposition to 30% shooting overall in two games, 23% from three-point range. I like the fact that they do schedule some tough games, but Gonzaga, they take on the best here. And I just think that Texas here is going to have some problems shooting from long range. Just seven for 36, even though they've won both games in blowout fashion here. So I think it's going to be a crazy crowd. You don't say that often about a Texas team. Their defense is impressive here, but there's a different level here. Take the points here and the Gonzaga Zags here. I think they win this game here outright. Wrong team favorite, Gonzaga. Big time action here. Number two in the country takes on number 11, Texas. They win deep in the heart of Texas outright over the Texas Longhorns.”
TEX 93, GONZ 74 — Texas routed Gonzaga 93-74 on Nov 16, 2022 behind Tyrese Hunter's 26 points; Gonzaga's -19 margin misses the +1 line (ESPN).
“The Suns, minus 2 versus the Warriors. Lee, break this one down for me. Well, I got to watch the Phoenix Suns here the other night, and they're talented. I mean, you talk about some guys that can shoot from outside. Very impressive. Here's the problem, though. When you get down to it, when you go up against the very best, you have to score from the outside. You have to drive the ball to the hoop, and you also have to play defense. And I'm not so sure Phoenix can do the last three really well. Golden State, we're going to get out ahead of what I think is going to be a nice streak. They're 6-8 right now. They won their last game blowout fashion against the San Antonio Spurs on Monday night. I think this is when they start making their run here. They did it without Klay Thompson. He will be back for this game. They had like the term was Achilles management. Why missed the last game? I understand it but I think it right These guys rest so much Probably not the long season They can do what they have to do but they will be all hands on deck here Steph Curry has been unstoppable this year he averaging 31.5 points per game shooting 52.3 percent from the field 43.3 percent from behind the arc now all sudden Jordan Poole lighting it up 36 points against San Antonio they've needed help besides from the big three, and he's the guy I think that can take him to the next level. Didn't like the fact that Phoenix just does not drive the ball. So they settle for jump shots. When you settle for jump shots, you're not going to be a top-tier team. I do think Chris Paul will probably play in this game, but first game back, I don't see him driving to the hole. They only attempted four free throws. I mean, they were complaining their coach was they should have been some more fouls called. I just think that they're soft. Devin Booker, nice player, but I don't know if he's going to win a championship. When he went head-to-head, Jimmy Butler, last four or five minutes, Jimmy Butler got the better of him. So I'm going to take Golden State. I think this team is headed for a nice run here. We'll be backing them early and often here. Wrong team favorite, defending champion Golden State Warriors, plus the points against Phoenix on Wednesday night.”
PHX 130, GS 119 — Suns beat the Warriors 130-119 on Nov 16, 2022 despite Stephen Curry's 50 points; Golden State's -11 margin misses the +2 line (ESPN).
“Ohio University, minus 4.5 for Ball State. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so I've been riding Ohio U. I think we've done at least once since Maxion started on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. I know I've given them out twice in the last couple weeks for my clients, and boy, they've been hot. You talk about a team that has just turned it on. It's the Ohio Bobcats. Five-game winning streak has turned around their season. They're on track. If they win next week, they're going to win their side of the MAAC, and they're going to play for the conference championship, and that's big for these kids. So they even won last week, you know, as a two-and-a-half-point favorite. Blew out Miami of Ohio 37-21. They won three games as underdogs this year, beating Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, and Buffalo. Now they're going to face off against Ball State. And, hey, most people keep riding. Curtis Rourke, quarterback. If he's not the best quarterback in this conference, He's completing almost 69% of his passes from 3,000 yards, 24 touchdowns, just four interceptions. I don't know who is. So he is really good. But here is the monkey wrench. Weather. We've seen it time and time again. You watch these MAAC games. You get to mid-November. You see wind. You see rain. And all of a sudden, the home team plays out of their mind. You see about eight fans on the visitor's side, huddled in blankets, and that's what Maction's all about. They're going to face Ball State. And what does Ball State do well? They run the football. They have an absolute beast running back. We're talking about a kid that has done something special this year, Carson Man of Steel. The real name is Carson Steel. I'm not sure of his nickname, but that's the nickname I give him. He's rushed for 1,295 yards, 12 touchdowns, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. You've got to run the football in weather. Ohio doesn't do it. Ball State does it really well. They're going to play spoiler tonight here, get the job done here. We're taking the points here. Wrong team favorite. Ball State over Ohio U here.”
OHIO 32, BALL 18 — Ohio beat Ball State 32-18 on Nov 15, 2022 despite Ball State QB Kurtis Rourke's injury; Ball State's -14 margin misses the +4.5 line (Wikipedia, sourced to the ESPN2 broadcast box score).
“The Golden Knights money line minus 260 but we not going to roll that way We going to roll with the puck line Minus one and a half goals minus 105 Break this down. Explain this one to us, Lee. Yeah, there's no offense in the NHL hotter right now than the Vegas Golden Knights. Since the last time these two teams played on October 25th, Vegas is averaging 4.1 goals per game. They've scored three-plus goals in six of those games, and they have a nine-game winning streak they did going into a loss to the Blues the other night. There's a lot of history in this matchup. The Sharks eliminated the Knights in the Western Conference Finals 2019 on probably the most controversial penalty call in recent NHL history. Since then, Vegas has had it out for San Jose head-to-head. Overall, 21-8, last 29 matchups between these two teams, with Vegas winning nine of the last 10. San Jose is having a down year this year yet again, and they're an easy team to overlook, but this Vegas Golden Knights group here just doesn't overlook them when they play five times every year. The Sharks have won their last two games, but if you look back and watch both of those matchups, which I did, they were vastly outmatched. They scored five goals on just 19 shots against Dallas, and they had the benefit of playing Minnesota's backup goaltender the other night. This is their last stop on the end of a big road trip across the country. I just don't see how they get their legs going in this one. I think it's going to be a 4-1 or 5-1 final for the Vegas Golden Knights. You can put this baby to sleep early tonight, Q. You're not staying up late here. Vegas Golden Knights minus the one-and-a-half goals, minus 105, blowout special over the San Jose Sharks.”
SJ 5, VGK 2 — Sharks beat the Golden Knights 5-2 on Nov 15, 2022 on two third-period goals from Timo Meier; Vegas lost outright, missing the -1.5 line (ESPN).
“The Pelicans minus three versus the Grizzlies. Lee, break this one down. I'm a little confused by the line here. Break this one down for us. Okay, so I think the reason, the main reason this line is where it is is they're not sure exactly who's going to play. And John Morant, I believe, will probably play in this game. And they missed him the last game. His 28 points, six rebounds, seven assists, surely missed. I do not think Desmond Bain is going to play in this game. And, you know, everyone talks about Morant, and he's important, but they were able to win without him last year for an extended period of time. Desmond Bain's come out of nowhere. This is his third year out of TCU. You talk about a guy that's doing it all. I mean, he's a really good defender. It's on the floor for almost 34 minutes every single night. He averaging 24 points per game almost five rebounds a game almost five assists per game So I just think that this kid is a just fabulous basketball player so under the radar and he will not play in this game So I think that that going to be a big loss for him here. I just think that they match up with him well. I think they're going to slow things down a little bit. Memphis, they like to get out and run. And when you can slow things down against a team that really likes to run, I think that presents some problems to Memphis actually has a deficit here against New Orleans. You would think a team with a better record, but New Orleans has the better offense. New Orleans has the better defense here, and also like the way that Zion's playing right now. Last game, 8 for 9 from the forward, 10 for 12 from the charity stripe here. Team leading 23.5 points per game. He's averaging almost 6.5 rebounds, almost 4 assists per game. Brandon Ingram, those two playing really well off each other. And then when they need someone from the outside, C.J. McCallum, almost 18 points of a game here. So they're finally healthy. And just think that they're also going to control the boards. So when you control the boards, you're going to win a lot of ball games here. I'm going to take New Orleans here. I'm going to lay the small spot here. Level one lock on Tuesday here. New Orleans Pelicans over the Memphis Grizzlies.”
NO 113, MEM 102 — Pelicans beat the Grizzlies 113-102 on Nov 15, 2022 as CJ McCollum scored 30; New Orleans' +11 margin clears the -3 line (ESPN).
“The Bucks minus 4.5 versus the Hawks. Break this one down for us. Yeah, and let me tell you something. This Atlanta Hawks team, I think, is very underrated. I think they're talented. You look at their starting roster, and people will go, you know, they talk about these great teams, but how many teams have this as your starting roster? Collins, Capella, Hunter, Murray, who they got from San Antonio, Trey Young, and off the bench, you got both holidays, and Frank Comiskey, even got Jalen Johnson. I mean, this is a strong, strong team. And you know what? They just play in the market, and people don't know a lot about them. People forget. They went to the conference finals a couple years ago. So I think this team with the addition of Murray from San Antonio is going to be really good. And now they're playing a Milwaukee team that, you know, quite frankly, they just they've got some major injuries and some situations going on. I think that they're going to have some problems moving forward, at least for the next couple of weeks. So, hey, they're 10 and two. Nice record. I think that Atlanta's got something to prove here. And Milwaukee's one of these teams that, you know, they, they get to this point in the season. And I just think that they're going to go through the motions. So what have they done the last couple of games? Well, they gave up, get this in their loss. Believe it or not. One of their two losses was on November 7th to Atlanta lost one 17 to 98 Then they gave up even more points at 117 gave up 132 to Oklahoma City barely held on and then lost at San Antonio 111-93. So, you know, I think that people will play them here. They'll see the small number. They'll figure, hey, you know, this is a nice spot here. But the problem is they just don't have the lineup. Okay, here's what's going on. They're starting Marjan Beauchamp because of injuries, starting Jordan Noir because of injuries, even Bobby Portis, who I think is one of the best guys off the bench. He's forced to start, and even Javon Carter is starting. So I just think that they're just undermanned here. I think Atlanta wants to send a message here. I'll take the four-and-a-half points. Wrong team favorite. I'm going with the Atlanta Hawks here plus the four-and-a-half wire-to-wire winner.”
ATL 121, MIL 106 — Hawks beat the Bucks 121-106 on Nov 14, 2022; Atlanta's +15 margin clears the +4.5 line (ESPN).
“The Eagles minus 10.5 versus the Commanders. Break this one down for us. I truly believe Philadelphia Eagles are the best team right now in the NFL. I think Buffalo's very talented, but they've got some major holes on defense, And it showed on Sunday as they gave up a 17-point lead to lose to Minnesota. Philadelphia, you look at their roster, I can't find an actual weakness. I mean, there's some areas that are pretty good, but no weaknesses. I think in the end that might be what propels them to at least the Super Bowl. So looking at this game, everyone loves to back up quarterback. Everyone was always, you know, talking about Taylor Heineke last couple years. Well, he's fiery. He's feisty. I love those kind of things. But through all that, they've only scored 23, 17, and 17 points in the three games and even gave up seven points to Green Bay on a pick six. So if you look at the net, they scored 23. It was actually 16, 16, and 17 points. They have pretty good defense. But the Eagles here are a team that is going to come after you. They come after pocket pastors. They had destroyed pocket passers here. And I think also special teams might play a part in this game. So, uh, I don't normally like laying double digits at all, but just think this is a great situational play here. And, um, you know, uh, Eagles have been in the NFL 89 years never opened up eight No Hey I a Dolphins fan Love to see the Eagles go down But not tonight here This is a team that gets turnovers Plus 15 in turnover ratio. And Jalen Hurts playing some great football. Combined 18 passing and rushing touchdowns with just two interceptions here. Blowout special. Philadelphia Eagles. I think they're going to win this game here. 38-13.”
WSH 32, PHI 21 — Commanders beat the previously-unbeaten Eagles 32-21 on Nov 14, 2022; Philadelphia's -11 margin misses the -10.5 line (ESPN).
“Missouri minus 27.5 versus New Mexico State. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so my notes early in the season, and even watching spring ball, I'm saying to myself, wow, this Missouri team has improved. Their defense is much improved. And people will look at the numbers. They'll be like, oh, well, Tennessee scored all the points on them on Saturday. Yeah, a lot of it was late. They kept having to go for it on fourth down. When that happens, you can see a pretty close game. I think it was a 10-point game, something like that, at halftime. It was even close mid-third quarter, late third quarter, and then the floodgates opened up. But they're a team, and I put in my notes, they will beat bad teams bad, but they just can't match up with the super teams. And Tennessee is obviously a team that might end up in the semifinals here in college football. So I think that a lot of their plays, which are underneath, they can't throw the ball down the field long. They have receivers. They have three or four guys that catch the ball, break tackles, or just run away from people. And New Mexico State just doesn't have talent on defense at all. New Mexico State's all happy. They won a game. They've moved up to four wins to them. Winning four is probably double the expectations for that program, where most people thought they'd win two games here. Thunder, four touchdowns. Get it now. This line's going to close 30, 31 points, in my opinion. Mizzou, big blowout special over New Mexico State.”
MIZ 45, NMSU 14 — Missouri routed New Mexico State 45-14 on Nov 19, 2022; the Tigers' +31 margin clears the -27.5 line (ESPN).
“The Suns minus two versus Miami Break this one down for us Lee Okay so I going to be at this game tonight and done some pretty deep dive into both teams And I've watched the last couple games of both teams. So for Phoenix, I do believe that Chris Paul missed his third straight game. And when he's not in there, things just aren't right. So they got smoked by Orlando in their last game. This is the last game of the road trip here. Devin Booker, if they're going to have to win this game, he's going to have to carry him. Just did not play well the other night, only 17 points. Back with six for 19 from the field, two for eight from three-point land. Also, DeAndre Ayton, not 100%. He is playing, but he's not 100% here. They've got multiple injuries here. They're playing guys off the bench, normally don't even see the court. And then Miami, last two games against Charlotte, Blew them out. So the last win was by 20 points. Looks like they're going to get Tyler Hero back for this game. His list is questionable. I have a good feeling he's going to play here. I think it's going to be an open game here. You know, Miami doesn't have to rebound. They're in really good shape, and Phoenix isn't one of the best rebounding teams either. So Tyler Hero back, which I project. Miami, I think they're going to be a tough out here at home. We're going to go with a level two lock to start the week here. Miami Heat over the Phoenix Suns tonight in the NBA.”
MIA 113, PHX 112 — Heat stunned the Suns 113-112 behind Bam Adebayo's 30 points on Nov 14, 2022; Miami's outright win covers the +2 line (ESPN).
“Georgia minus 16.5 for Mississippi State. Lee, that's a whole lot of points. Break this one down for us. So the best thing about gambling is you can ride a team one week and you can fade them the next. And last week I loved Georgia. One of my strongest plays. Felt that they were going to come after Hendon Hooker, and boy, did they ever. It was a two-touchdown win. Should have been about four or five touchdowns. They just put on the brakes then just wanted to make sure they won the game Great game plan great defense enough offense and they look like the number one team in the country Now taking on another passing team Mississippi State but a completely different type of passing team. They use their pass like most teams use their rushing attack, and we're going to see Will Rogers, Mississippi State quarterback. He gets rid of the ball quick, unlike Hendon Hooker. So I think Georgia's going to come up short almost all the times when they try to rush him. Doesn't sit back there and take all day. They didn't play last year, but two years ago, Mike Leach's first year, Mississippi State played them tight. They only lost 30-24 here. So I think the air raid's going to be working here. They're going to keep it close. Georgia's more talented, but sometimes it's all about the matchups. Georgia, 31-21, but Mississippi State, plus the 16.5 points here, wrong team favorite or at least they keep it close”
19-45 — Georgia beat Mississippi State 45-19 on Nov 12, 2022 behind a Ladd McConkey TD; Mississippi State lost by 26, well outside +16.5 (ESPN box score).
“new orleans minus one and a half for pittsburgh break this one down for us lee all right so you're saying why would lee pick this game okay here's why we're looking for a winner we're not looking for style points Steelers might get TJ Watt back for this game First time since opening week when he tore his peck New Orleans is on a short week They had to play the Ravens on Monday night So short week, travel Pittsburgh had a bye last week How is Mike Tomlin as an underdog since 2019? Well, they haven't been great But as an underdog, 18-9 against the spread here I love rookies off the bye week, extra week to prepare for this game here. Then Kenny Pickett going to have some success against this New Orleans secondary here. We're going to go here with a hidden gem. Pittsburgh knocks off New Orleans here on Sunday afternoon.”
20-10 — Steelers beat Saints 20-10 on Nov 13, 2022; Pittsburgh covered +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Warriors minus 2.5 versus the Cavaliers. Break this one down for us, Lee. You talk about hot. Donovan Mitchell last game, 38 points against Sacramento. 16 for 28 from the field, even 6 for 14 from three-point land, even threw in five rebounds, four assists. He looks really good. I mean, he is really starting to develop into the weapon they thought he was. But, and even after they won eight straight, this is the fifth game of a road trip. They lost the last two on Monday and Wednesday night to the Clippers by two at Sacramento by seven. Now they're playing Golden State before they head home to play Minnesota. And all of a sudden, Steph Curry says, hey, not so fast. The win against Sacramento, he was on absolute fire. He scored 47 points, 17 for 24 from the field, 7 for 12 from three-point land. He had eight assists, even better than Mitchell, and eight rebounds. So I think he's finally said to the team, hey, here, we need to get our you-know-what together here. Also, Andrew Wiggins, 25 points in the last game, 10 rebounds. Also, Klay Thompson chipped in 16 points. So I think the big three is back. They've had enough. They've gotten out of the gate slowly here, but they are at home here. And that fifth game of a five-game road trip, I think it's too much here. Golden State flexes their muscles here. blowout special defending champion golden state warriors minus the small spot over the cleveland cavaliers”
106-101 — Warriors beat Cavaliers 106-101 on Nov 11, 2022 behind Steph Curry's 40 points; Golden State covered -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“The 49ers minus seven versus L.A. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so you're saying, why is this line seven points? Chargers have the better record. Let's look at this team. They do a five and three record. They have some major injuries. I mean, top two wide receivers, probably not playing in the game. Starting left tackle. Best pass rusher in Bosa. Best cornerback in Jackson. Their kicker is even out for this game. and the wins are against your Raiders Houston Cleveland Denver and Atlanta Can you say patty cake city here The 49ers expect Debo Samuel back for this game along with Christian McCaffrey, C-Mac, and stud tight end George Kittle, who's probably as healthy as he's been since the start of the season. Their offense should be rolling in their defense. Nothing wrong with that. They're finally healthy, and they're allowing the fewest yards per game in the NFL. Six in scoring defense. just 18.6 points per game. And the Chargers have gotten off to some horrendous starts. They've trailed by double digits at the end of the first quarter in four straight games. That happens to San Francisco. You can say good night, Irene. Blowout city here. Level three lock. We're going all the way up on Friday. San Francisco doubles up the Chargers here, 42-21.”
22-16 — 49ers beat Chargers 22-16 on Nov 13, 2022; San Francisco won by only 6 points, missing the -7 spread (ESPN box score).
“Carolina Moneyline minus 135 versus Edmonton. Break this one down for us. So the Carolina Hurricanes were in a really bad situation last two games against the Florida Panthers and the Toronto Maple Leafs. They went with the backup goaltender last night against the Panthers, and the offense just couldn't get anything going against Florida in a game that really was never all that close. But they have a good chance, I believe, to bounce back here. Yeah, they're on back-to-back situation here, some travel involved here, but that hasn't caused them issues before. Get this, they're 34-16 in their last 50 games on back-to-backs, and they're facing up against an Edmonton team here that has to be just as exhausted, maybe more. The Oilers are playing their third road game in four nights here. Travel situation for them has been very tough. They started in Washington, D.C. against the Capitals, then traveled down to Tampa Bay for their biggest win of the season. Now they have to go back up north here to Raleigh, North Carolina, to face our Hurricanes team. I think it's ticked off and hasn't had much success offense here lately at all. So the Hurricanes have owned this matchup too. Sometimes it's all about the matchup. They're 5-2 in the last seven games head-to-head with Edmonton here in Carolina. I look for the Hurricanes here to bounce back in a big way. 4-1 here. Blowout special. Carolina Hurricanes. Moneyline minus 135 over Edmonton.”
7-2 — Hurricanes beat Oilers 7-2 on Nov 10, 2022 behind a Svechnikov hat trick; Carolina moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Pelicans minus 6.5 versus the Trail Blazers. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, only, how about this, three home games out of the 11 games. So you're looking and saying, oh, 6-5, they're doing okay. No they doing great here They have six straight home games beginning tonight Portland boy did they have tooth and nail They had to come back all the way down against Charlotte last night to get the win so a hard-fought win. This is a team that Portland's playing well, but multiple injuries, guys that are playing beat up here. I would not be surprised if they rest someone here. So I think that they feel, hey, they can take a deep breath out. they've accomplished what they wanted to on this road trip here. You know, New Orleans, for some reason, this team is built to play extremely well at home on offense. In fact, lead the league in offense here. So averaging 118.5 points per game, the big three, everyone's healthy here. And I also expect C.J. McCallum to bounce back from his last effort here. even though he did score 25 points here in the last game, 0 for 5 from three-point land. So I expect him to be hitting at home. He's one of these guys that energizes the team. They play inside out here. And I just think Portland, you know, after all these tough games, playing Miami, that three-pointer at the buzzer to win that game. Then the game last night here, you're looking at the line, you're saying, wow, this line should be three and a half, four. No, it's there for a reason. blowout special the pelicans big time over the portland trailblazers tonight”
95-106 — Trail Blazers beat Pelicans 106-95 on Nov 10, 2022 behind Jerami Grant's 27 points; New Orleans lost outright, missing -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Memphis minus 6.5 versus Tulsa. Break this one down for us, Lee. So each team has lost four of the last five games. Memphis at least has been scoring. And their last game last week, wow. I mean, they were against UCF. And once it got in the red zone, they just derailed. I don't know what it was. just one of those games. Give UCF some credit. Their defense did play well. But now Memphis, okay, they're at home. They get to stay at home, and they get Tulsa on the short week having to travel. And what's going on with this Tulsa team? Well, they got injuries. Quarterback, Davis Brin, it looks like will probably not play here. And not only have they not covered the last four games and the fifth game going back to Cincinnati they lost that game by 10 points The line was 10 They should have lost probably by 25 30 points I thought the officials gave them every type of advantage in that game So this is going to be a really tough matchup, in my opinion, for this Tulsa team. So when they have some good years, everything's going great. When things are going bad, they've got some real problems here. Also, I mean, just look at Tulsa. they had a get this 357 to 111 rushing yards deficit you don't run the ball and you can't stop the run and your quarterback is probably out for the game and they have no depth at quarterback and you're on the road and we've seen a lot of these midweek games the team starts strong just don't have enough in the fourth quarter they have no kick I think that's what's going to happen here with Tulsa we're going to lay the six and a half get it now don't wait it could go up we like to Memphis Tigers blowout city here over the Tulsa hurricane blowout special number three.”
26-10 — Memphis beat Tulsa 26-10 on Nov 10, 2022; Tigers covered -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Betonline.net line for this one, Central Michigan minus 1.5 versus Buffalo. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay so Central Michigan playing for pride I mean they out of it They 2 in the MAAC Buffalo 4 in the MAAC 5 overall and they playing for pride I mean they out of it They two and three in the MAAC Buffalo four and one in the MAAC five and four overall and they playing for a shot to win their side of the conference and go to the conference championship game. So we also have, I think, a team that's pretty easy to figure out. Buffalo is a pretty strong team. Are they great? No, No one's great in the MAAC this year, but they're pretty consistent. So they had won the first five games in conference, and then what happened? They went up against Ohio last week. Ohio was on fire. It just happens. Sometimes you face a team that is playing really well, and we saw last night Ohio wins again. So I just think that they caught a team that was hot. These teams also that are playing tonight have two teams in common, Bowling Green and Toledo. Buffalo beat Bowling Green 38-7 at Bowling Green and also beat Toledo, which is pretty darn good, 34-27. On the other side, Central Michigan lost to Bowling Green at home 34-18 and also lost to Toledo 38-17. So we have common opponents. And then one of the things that I like about Buffalo is they are consistent. They have this quarterback name. A lot of people not well-known. They've had some really good quarterbacks over the years. Cole Snyder, consistent, consistently will throw for 225 to about 300 yards. He'll run for 25, 30 yards every single game. Doesn't beat himself. So when I see Central Michigan, they're going to be going up against a team that has a consistent quarterback. And what is their problem? Defense. They can't play defense. So they'll score some. Their scoring's up and down. But their defense is just absolutely horrific. Bottom 20 in college football here. We're going to take the points here. Wrong team favorite. Buffalo gets the win tonight on the road.”
31-27 — Central Michigan beat Buffalo 31-27 on Nov 9, 2022, rallying from a 17-point deficit; Buffalo lost by 4, missing +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Canucks money line, minus 145 versus the Canadiens. Thoughts on this one. Break it down for us. Wow. The hockey has gotten off to an incredible start here at our company. We had Seattle last night in the hockey, and we're winning. We're winning by large margins. When we do lose, we went 3-1 for our clients last night. We're losing close games. So here's another blowout. The Vancouver Canucks got off to probably maybe the most disappointing start of any team in the NHL this season. They had multiple goal leads in each of their first five games People don realize this and lost all of them It led to an 0 start Their general manager and head coach were already on the hot seat just 12 days into the season. I mean, it looked like a rebuilding year for a team that was expected to make the playoffs. But they've quietly here started to turn things around. They're 4-1-1 in six games since the awful skid. They're averaging 4.8 goals per game in that span, and the power play is converting here at a ridiculous 42.8%. Thatcher Demko, who's one of the most promising young goaltenders in the league, really struggled early on, but starting to look better, even though his numbers aren't great. Similar to what we talked about with Seattle yesterday, same type of thing with their goaltender. So they're on back-to-back, traveling from Ottawa to Montreal on this one. but they actually have a much shorter commute here than the Canadians do as Montreal comes home from a matchup last night in Detroit. So Vancouver got in last night and has been waiting for the Habs to get home. On Montreal's side of things, it just hasn't clicked at all yet this year. There was hope they could surprise some teams early in the year, but the power play is struggling without a quarterback defenseman leading the way. They only have three players right now with 10 or more points. And the bottom two forward lines, which you really need against a weak Vancouver defensive group, just hasn't produced at all this year. Martin St. Louis is just one and four on back end of back-to-backs as Montreal's head coach. I don't think they can pull off the upset two nights in a row here. This should be a 3-2 or 4-2 final score here. Vancouver Canucks money line blowout tonight in hockey.”
2-5 — Canadiens beat Canucks 5-2 on Nov 9, 2022 behind two Kirby Dach goals; Vancouver moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“The Hawks minus 3.5 versus Utah. Break this one down for us, Lee. Two teams, I mean, that are on nice runs this year to start the year. So some people who studied basketball kind of knew that they were right there, the Atlanta Hawks. You know, putting it together, made the great trade for Murray. This team is maybe one player away, believe it or not. from winning a championship. Utah tore the team down I mean totally traded away top two players Everyone thought this would be a team that was more likely three and nine not nine and three But what happened They have come out shooting You talk about guys being hot. Lauren marketing has five double doubles this year, equaling the number of double doubles he had in the previous two years. Jordan Clarkson, he scored 23 points against the Clippers on Sunday, hit five three-pointers to pass Daryl Griffith to take over seventh place on the team's all-time list with 531. But, you know, these two guys have just been out of their minds hot here. I think you're going to find an Atlanta team that just has more firepower than they do. Atlanta's just so under the radar. They just can't beat one team, Toronto, in the Eastern Conference. So, for some reason, they have so much trouble with them. And I just think Atlanta's going to run this Utah team out of the gym. Eventually, things have to turn, and it starts tonight. I think Utah's going to be a team that's going to go on a decline. They just don't play enough defense here. We're going to lay the small spot here. The Atlanta Hawks here, a level two lock on Wednesday. Let's keep it rolling here in the right way here. Atlanta, big win, level two lock over the Utah Jazz.”
119-125 — Jazz beat Hawks 125-119 on Nov 9, 2022 behind Lauri Markkanen's 32 points; Atlanta lost outright, missing -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Kraken minus 105 versus the Predators. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, before the year, if I was going to tell you that the Buffalo Sabres and Seattle Kraken, we were going to back them early and often the first half of the season, you'd probably tell me, hey, Lee, you got a relative on the team? I mean, is there a bias going on here? but no, that's what's great about wagering. Things change from one year to the next. And, you know, hey, I'm not saying Seattle is going to make the playoffs. I'm not saying Buffalo is going to make the playoffs, but these two teams are much improved. So there's 11 NHL games on the board tonight. This one might be one of the least attractive to hockey fans in North America, but people might see this line and think, why are the Predators only pretty much a pick them? against a Seattle team that still hasn't found success in the NHL. Well, Seattle is finally on the rise. Ron Francis, if you remember the name, used to be the great player, played for the Pittsburgh Penguins. He's the Kraken's general manager. He might be on to something with this team this year. So they're starting to really flourish in the last week or so. They're 5-1 the last six games. I think they're still going to trend as a play for maybe the next week or two. They're plus nine in goal differential in that span. And their goaltender this year is Martin Jones. He's really come out of nowhere in a rebound city after being just absolutely abysmal last five or six seasons. So didn't play for the Kraken. He's taken the starting goaltender's job away from really three guys who were just absolutely awful. So he's now 6-3-1, 10 starts, 261 goals against average. and a 901 save percentage. Those numbers aren't anything spectacular, but you have to keep in mind, this Seattle team has been by far the worst defense and goaltending as far as all of hockey since they came in the league. So this is also a really bad spot for the Predators. They're in the midst of a long West Coast road trip right now with five road games in 10 days against all playoff contenders. They just came off a really emotional, come from behind victory the other night in Vancouver. And they know exactly who is next on their schedule. It's the Colorado Avalanche who just embarrassed them in postseason last year, sweeping the series 4-0. Their minds are not on this game. They're ready to get to Denver to play the Avalanche and then to get home. So the situation, I think, is right for the Kraken to pick up another two points here, take the home side team, and I think it's going to be a 4-1 final score here. Seattle Kraken, money line, minus 105 over, like I said, a Nashville team that's looking ahead, Hidden Gem.”
5-1 — Kraken beat Predators 5-1 on Nov 8, 2022 for their fifth straight win; Seattle moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Duquesne minus 4 versus Montana Give us this one man Break it down for us Okay so the Montana Grizzlies are traveling on the road to face Duquesne here and Montana plays in a very respectable conference [7:49] They play in the Big Sky. [7:51] They were 11-9 in conference play, just fell a little short of postseason, [7:54] but 18-14 overall. [7:58] They always seem to be right there. [8:00] They make the tournament a couple seasons, [8:02] but you know they got a coach here that a kid named a guy named Travis DeCour who has been so [8:11] solid you know they've been above 500 14 straight years so you have a consistent system here [8:19] last year they averaged over 72 points places them in the top half as far as scoring here [8:26] Duquesne bottom 50 in scoring. [8:30] Duquesne is absolutely the dregs here. [8:33] So they just can't win. [8:36] They finished last in their conference. [8:37] They average only 65.2 points per game here. [8:42] Lost four out of five starters from last year. [8:45] They don't rebound. [8:46] You know, we talked about rebounding. [8:48] If you can't shoot and you can't rebound, you're not going to win many games. [8:51] And here's on top of everything else. [8:53] Let's say they have a small lead late in the game here. [8:57] Absolutely horrible. [8:58] I mean, they placed 324th. [9:02] That's right, 324th in shooting free throws. [9:06] So they just don't do any one thing well. [9:10] Another team just brought in a bunch of transfers here from lower-level schools [9:15] just trying to find a way to make it work here. [9:17] So they're laying points here. [9:20] The wrong team is favored here. [9:21] I think the Grizzlies go into Duquesne and come out with a win here. [9:26] We're going to go with the Montana Grizzlies here. [9:30] Wrong team favored over the Duquesne Dukes. [9:33] Man, again, digging deep into the crates. [9:35] That almost could have been hidden gem number two right there. [9:38] I like that. [9:39] WTF, wrong team favored. [9:40] Duquesne and Montana season opener at College Hoops. [9:44] Again, Lee's doing the deep diving when it comes to some of these games. [9:47] I like that. [9:48] BetOnline.net line, Duquesne minus 4.5 versus the Montana Grizzlies.”
91-63 — Duquesne beat Montana 91-63 on Nov 8, 2022 behind Dae Dae Grant's 25 points; Montana lost by 28, well outside +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Longhorns minus 7 versus the Horned Frogs. Lee, I've got to be missing something. TCU is a top 10 team. I've got to be missing something. Break it down for me. Okay, so last week, a lot of people fell for the trap. They went with Tennessee. Tennessee was red hot. I felt that Georgia was going to dominate the line of scrimmage, gave that out as a client play, dominated play. The final was 27-13. But bottom line was they fell for the trap. Tennessee was never in the game. So I think people are going to go with Texas here. Why? They're feeling, hey, TCU is due to lose. Okay. Okay, I do think that they're eventually going to lose and not make the playoff. But they still have to play Baylor. Baylor might be the team that takes them out. They're sound. They're going to limit the possessions. They run the ball extremely well, play good defense, have a defensive minded coach here. But I don think Texas if they win is going to win by more than seven points I do think this line if anything is going to go down It going to close maybe five and a half six So why not take the seven now if you like TCU? They put up almost 500 yards on every single defense. I don't think the Texas defense, the pass defense, is anything special at all. In fact, they got lucky last week. What was Kansas doing starting Adrian Martinez? Okay, I would have played him, son. I know he was the original starter but will howard against tcu lit them up and then what happened the next game he lit up oklahoma state they won 48 nothing how do you not start a guy who's 48 nothing i know adrian martinez was a starter but this is it they should have thrown the football early and often so uh texas's past defense i just think they've faced a lot of teams except for alabama not real good passing teams. Only decent passing teams, Alabama, good, but no great receivers this year. And Texas Tech, you know, they put up 331. They lost in that game. They faced Oklahoma without their quarterback, faced Iowa State, landlocked, Oklahoma State without their quarterback also. So I just think that this is a bad situational play here to lay the seven points. So I think TCU is just going to either keep winning or finding ways to take the game right down to the wire. We're going to go with a level two lock on a Tuesday. TCU plus a seven at Texas on Saturday.”
17-10 — TCU beat Texas 17-10 on Nov 12, 2022 behind a Kendre Miller TD run; TCU won outright, covering +7 easily (ESPN box score).
“The Thunder minus 1 versus Detroit. Break this one down for me. Okay. You're thinking probably, why isn't this the hidden gem? Well, OKC. Nice little run. Won four straight. but now they've lost the last two. I think the shine's off them. Sometimes early in the season, teams can surprise teams. I think Utah, which has been great eventually, is going to have some problems, but not yet. Now Detroit, listen to the last six opponents they played. They only won one of these games. It was against Golden State, believe it or not. The last six opponents were Cleveland, Milwaukee twice, Golden State and Atlanta twice all top tier playoff team so no wonder they're two and eight OKC giving up 110.4 points per game I think it's only going to get worse on defense they only scored 94 points last game so I don't think that they can win a shootout here last game they shot just 42 percent from the field 34 points from three pointers here so I like Detroit here and I like their big three. Cade Cunningham starting to come into the zone last game. 19 points, five rebounds, five assists. Jaden Ivey, 18 points. Sadiq Bey, 18-4-3 here. Detroit Pistons at home. Wrong team favorite over OKC tonight.”
112-103 — Pistons beat Thunder 112-103 on Nov 7, 2022 behind Saddiq Bey's 25 points; Detroit won outright, easily covering +1 (ESPN box score).
“Bowling Green minus two and a half versus Air Force. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, two more teams had rough years last year, just like in the first game with OKC in Detroit. Bowling Green did not fare well. I think they lost five of the last six in conference. Air Force, rough season as well. They're in the third year of their regime. But I think one team's got more problems than the other, and it's Air Force. They only had two players last year on the roster score double digits. You talk about a team that just doesn't have firepower, and they lost their top score. The top returner from last year, Jake Heidreiter. Jake Heidreiter averages 10.4 points per game. You talk about a reload, they have 17 freshmen and sophomores on the roster. So they're going out on the road here. Uh, this is a team that, you know, you look at all the different metrics and a lot times I look at Ken Palm and his numbers early in the year. Very important. They listed as 278 and offensive efficiency three 25 defensively out of 363 teams So they have already these teams have had a couple different exhibition games People that scouted them didn't have high things to say about them here. So this is a team here, Bowling Green, that protects the home turf. 27-2 from 2018 to 2020. So they hit the boards real well. In fact, 60% of their scores so far this year have come inside the paint. So, you know, a lot easier to shoot short shots than it is to shoot three-pointers. And just felt that this is a team that against West Virginia, I watched the exhibition game, they look really good. I think this is going to be one of the surprise teams here. I think it's a matchup nightmare for Air Force here. Air Force, not one of the tall teams. Bowling Green, long team here. I think they're going to just dominate the paint and dominate rebounding. You do that, you're going to win a lot of games here. Blowout special, opening night college basketball. Bowling Green, minus a two and a half over the Flyboys.”
62-58 — Bowling Green beat Air Force 62-58 in their season opener on Nov 7, 2022; Falcons (Bowling Green) covered -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Ravens minus one and a half versus Saints. Break this one down for us. Okay, so I like the move that the Ravens did at the trading deadline. They got stud linebacker Roquan Smith. Roquan Smith is a guy that makes tackles sideline to sideline. And you got to have a guy with a physical presence here. You want to stop the New Orleans running game. You want to stop a team that, you know, they go into the Wildcat. You know, they show about everything because they just can't push the ball down the field. So I expect Smith to be a big factor in this game. So the Saints have five losses here. But all of one of them occurred in the final possession. And that last loss was against the Buccaneers by 10 points when the game was tied. in the middle of the fourth quarter here. Here's why I can't play. Two big reasons the Saints here. I just can't back the red rifle Andy Dalton two weeks in a row. It just does not equate into winning bets. So they're also minus nine in turnover ratio. They had a big win last week. They don't protect the home turf, three and six straight up and against the spread the last nine home games here. So, yeah, Baltimore doesn't win by much, but they find ways to win the last three wins by an average of 3.3 points. The line is one and a half. You can play the money line here, just minus 120. So most wagers are minus 110 You don want to have a game and them winning by one point I give the extra 10 points of juice here We going with the Baltimore Ravens money line over the New Orleans Saints tonight”
27-13 — Ravens beat Saints 27-13 on Monday Night Football, Nov 7, 2022, behind Kenyan Drake's two rushing TDs; Baltimore moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh minus 3 versus Syracuse. Lee, break it down. What am I missing here? Okay, it's about matchups. Pitt can run the football. And what did Clemson and Notre Dame do? This is simple here Sometimes you look too deep into things and you like oh this coach is this as a double favorite or this team as a home underdog Look at the matchups in this game Pick and run the football Two teams have beat Syracuse Clemson and Notre Dame ran 60 times Did Clemson for 293 yards And Notre Dame, 56 times, 246 yards. What does Pitt do best? Run the football here. I think they're going to punish the Orange. The Orange started great, but they just don't have the depth. They are getting beaten up here. I think Pitt's going to run the ball 55, 60 times, just like Clemson and Notre Dame here. Pitt, 34-21 over Syracuse, short and sweet.”
19-9 — Pittsburgh beat Syracuse 19-9 at Acrisure Stadium on Nov 5, 2022; Panthers won outright, covering -3 (ESPN box score).
“The Buccaneers minus 2.5 versus the Rams. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, you play kickball in school? Yes, yes, I was good. You know how the captains, you know, pick the team? You know how it gets down to the last two choices? Yes. And you're like, oh, who do I take here? You know, and usually doesn't determine, you know, whether you're going to win the game or not. But these two teams have gone from the very best. Rams won the Super Bowl last year. Tampa Bay won the year before. And they are just, I mean, injuries. Both offenses are horrific. And then the defense is plagued by injuries. I just think the team that's worse off is the Rams. Their offensive line, one of the worst I've seen in the last decade in the NFL. They should have shored it up, did not do a good job there. I think Cam Akers, you know, he stopped playing after week two or three. They've got no running back. Their second and third receivers, they probably couldn't make most rosters. and even though Tampa Bay injured on defense got a few injuries on offense offense isn't playing great maybe Tom Brady you know we didn't realize we thought maybe he was right in the middle of the divorce now we realize it was right at the end of it and that's maybe where the most stress is maybe that burden is lifted off of him yeah and I don't know how many great performances he has left maybe we're not going to see any more great performances. All he needs to do is play good. And I think he's going to lead his team to a win here at home. May not be pretty, but Tampa Bay, I think they win this game here by seven to 10 points. Blowout special Tampa Bay over the Rams.”
16-13 — Buccaneers beat Rams 16-13 on a last-minute Brady TD pass, Nov 6, 2022; Tampa Bay covered -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're talking about the Astros' money line, minus 140 versus the Phillies. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, unlike the first two games where it's a specific matchup or it's short and sweet, this game has layers. The one thing I thought that could propel the Phillies to a World Series championship or getting into at least game seven, Aaron Nola, Zach Wheeler. They had to pitch some of the best baseball of their lives and steal a couple of games in Houston. Well, it hasn't gone to plan. Nola has given up eight runs in eight innings. Wheeler gave up four runs in five innings in his lone start so far. Wheeler, he gets a second chance in game six here. But the pitcher he's going up against in this one is the ultimate counterpunch for the Philadelphia Phillies offense. So nine of the Phillies, 17 runs in the World Series, have come off home runs against Astros pitching. They have lived and died by the home run. In fact, they're 2-0 when they hit a home run and 1-2 when they don't hit a home run so far in the series. Well, what do we know about Frambois Valdez? He is not in the top five, even in the top three. He's the best ground ball pitcher of all time. Get this. In his career, he has induced a ground ball on exactly two-thirds, 66.6% of all pitches that hitters have made contact with. That is on pace to be the best ground ball rate in MLB history. He doesn't give up deep fly balls, big extra base hits off the wall, or homers, ever. In fact, he's allowed just .49 home runs per nine innings this year, which was the second best in all of baseball. He's already faced the Phillies team once in game two and shut them down efficiently. And he's even getting an extra night of rest here coming into game six. This is a nightmare matchup here for the Phillies lineup that solely relies on homers right now and appears to have dried up the well here Just two runs and six hits in games four and five combined don be surprised if they held to three or four hits again on Saturday keep in mind too the Astros bullpen is about as reliable as it gets their 0.88 bullpen ERA in this postseason so far is on track to be the best of all time. I see a 6-1 or 6-2 final score here. There'll be no drama. The Astros and Dusty Baker take their first real World Series win in franchise history.”
4-1 — Astros beat Phillies 4-1 in World Series Game 6 on Nov 5, 2022 at Minute Maid Park to clinch the title 4-2 in the series; Houston moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline line for this one Capitals minus 115 versus the Red Wings Break this one down for us Lee So the Buffalo Sabres have obviously made waves in the Atlantic Division with their offensive output this year but there's one other team that made some really strong improvements to in the offseason and has an opportunity, in my opinion, to contend this season in the same division. It's the Detroit Red Wings. Steve Eisenman in the front office knew that their roster just wasn't competitive at all last year. So what did they do? They went out and really improved the goaltending, and they picked up Andrew Kopp and David Perron to improve the five-on-five scoring and power play, and they revamped also the coaching staff with some impressive guys on the bench. It's already paying off for them to, after being one of the worst defenses in the NHL last year, They finally have a number one goaltender, Haval Housa, and he's been impressive. 3-1-1 with a 2.40 goals against average. Now they're facing a Washington Capitals team in a really tough spot. The Caps, they're without TJ Oshie, Tom Wilson, John Carlson, and Nicholas Backstrom here. That's four of the five guys that are usually on their top power play unit. It has shown so far, too. They've scored only seven goals in their last four games. They're coming in off two straight overtime losses, and now they have a quick stop in Detroit before getting their first opportunity to settle in at home for a couple of games. They're going to have to play a perfect game here to win this, and they just shouldn't be favored in this game right now. Don't buy into the name recognition or previous year's numbers here. The wrong team is favored. We're going to go with the Detroit Red Wings money line plus 105 over the Washington Capitals tonight.”
DET 3-WSH 1 — Detroit beat Washington 3-1 on the road, so Red Wings ML wins (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Alabama. Minus 13 versus LSU. Break this one down for us, Lee. You like saying that. I do. I do. You got me. All right. So I think the reason LSU is ranked number 10 is what have they done the last two weeks. I mean, they destroyed after being down Florida and did the same to Ole Miss. They were down 14-3 and came back and dominated. Jaden Daniels right now is playing some of the best football in college against Florida and Ole Miss. The offense put up 45 points in both games. He's completed after – you started – if you watched in the first game against Florida State, he looked awful, looked lost. I'm like, wow, they're going to have to make a quarterback change. Nope. He figured it out. He was in a zone second half against Ole Miss last week. Pop in the tape, you may not see a more impressive quarterback outing one half in college football this year completing 70 of his passes 12 touchdowns only one interception and then add on seven rushing touchdowns here Okay maybe he not quite Bryce Young but doesn take very long to call a role here Alabama, an awful two and six against the spread the last eight games on the road. Not good at all. Their offensive line, defense not up to championship levels. I see LSU and Jaden Daniels throwing all over the Bama defense here successfully. This line should be seven, maybe eight, 13. I mean, this game is being played in Baton Rouge. I think this is going to be an ESPN cliffhanger. Boy, people that count the numbers here, they're going to be really excited with this game. I think it's going to go down to the end here. I think Alabama escapes here 38-34, but wrong team favorite, LSU plus 13.”
LSU 32-ALA 31 — LSU beat Alabama 32-31 in overtime in Baton Rouge on Nov 5, 2022, an outright upset that easily covers +13 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Nuggets minus 6.5 versus the Thunder. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, start off, let's first look at the matchup here. And you've got two 4-3 teams. Most people thought Denver would be 4-3, 5-2. People are shocked. Oklahoma City is 4-3. They're on a four-game winning streak. In fact, they have dominated this series, in fact, winning all five of the last five meetings against the spread here. So you go back even to October 22nd. The Nuggets outlasted the Thunder here, 122 to 117, but they did not cover the nine-point spread. In fact, I thought Oklahoma City looked like the better team in that game. And then on top of that, Nuggets not defending. I mean, they're giving up 116.4 points per 100 possessions here. That ranks 26th out of 32 teams. Also, giving up 47.7 shooting from three-point land, that's 22nd. You know, they're giving up just too many easy shots here. Denver also scoring 113 points, usually on the top four or five in the league. 113.5 points for 100 possessions. that ranks only 14th. So they can't outscore people. They can't defend people. And this Oklahoma City team plays hard every single night. And I think their self-confidence is just through the roof right now. So we're going to take the hotter team, the team that matches up well. As we mentioned, 5-0 against the spread. Last five times these two teams have met here. James at home getting six and a half points. wrong team favorite let go with the oklahoma city thunder plus the six and a half points against the Denver Nuggets We going to play him plus the points and even sprinkle a little on the money line here”
DEN 122-OKC 110 — Denver beat OKC 122-110; the Thunder lost by 12, not covering +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Air Force minus 7 versus Army. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, it's important to look at both the game and line and also the total here. Air Force is favored by seven. The total on this game is 40. Now, not just two teams, three teams. We talking about the teams that are in the forces We talking about Army Navy and Air Force In the last 18 years 52 Commander skirmishes How about this The under is covered 42 times, only lost nine times with one push. Total on this is 40. The game is not being played at one of the home fields, so it's unusual. Usually Army and Air Force, when they play, it's home and home. But this year, they're playing the game in Arlington. the old Texas Rangers baseball stadium. So unusual type of venue here to play the game. And people also look at the game and say, oh, Air Force number one, running the football, Army number two. Okay, should be a low-scoring game, should be maybe take the points here. Well, not so fast. So Air Force, in their game against Army last year, lost in overtime, 21-14. They would have won the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, but it slipped away. They have not had success lately. It's gone to Navy most years. So I just think that this team is really poised. After they lost their last game, Utah rebounded. We gave out UNLV to a lot of our clients. UNLV, they just destroyed them. 42-7, it was 28-0 early. Now, what happened two weeks ago? They played Boise State, lost 19-14. It was not a horrible performance. They held Boise State to 322 overall yards, and Boise's offense has been rolling since they went to the change here at quarterback and also offensive coordinator. I love – they have a running back named Brad Roberts. He's only 5'11", 205, but he does everything. Not just a plowhead guy, but he'll get you four or five and sometimes 10, 20 yards when they hand him the ball off. Haslick Daniels, established quarterback, been the starter now for three years. So he's ready to go. I think this Army team is way, way down. Talk about defense. The only time they played defense was against Villanova and Colgate. Other than that, games like Wake Forest gave up 45, gave up 41 to Texas San Antonio. Coastal Carolina gave up 38 here. I think they're going to rout Army. I think they're going to make them pay. I like Air Force. I think they're going to win this game. Something like 28-10, 28-12, 28-14. We like Air Force here as they double up Army here.”
AFA 13-ARMY 7 — Air Force beat Army 13-7 on Nov 5, 2022, winning by only 6, so Air Force -7 does not cover (ESPN box score).
“Celtics minus two versus the Cavaliers. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? So I like betting on the better team when you have rematches within the week. When the team especially goes on the road, you get a decent line. You know, they were at home. This line probably seven, eight points. But now they're just laying two points. That's it. They lost 132 to 123 in overtime They missed Robert Williams in that game And Cleveland they were really good on the boards controlled the boards 42 Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum each had 32 points in that game but they just didn't get any help anywhere else. So I think this team will be motivated. After that game, Celtics defense really played well against Washington, held them to 35% shooting on the floor, 18% from three-point land. And Cleveland coming together. I think they're going to be a player in the playoffs. Donovan Mitchell playing some incredible ball the last couple games. But I think after seeing him once, his Celtics team is going to be able to probably, I wouldn't say put the clamps on him, but at least slow him down. They are really long. Almost all their players are a really tough team to play. One time I was talking to a coach, and he said, yeah, when you shoot outside, you shoot a little differently because they're so long. And then you get in the lane and you realize, uh-oh, got all these guys with tentacles all over you. So I think it's going to be a tough matchup here for Cleveland. I think the motivation is there for Boston. The pedigree is there. Look like they're all healthy and ready to go. Later two points, Boston Celtics blowout special over the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.”
CLE 114-BOS 113 — Cleveland beat Boston 114-113 in overtime; the Celtics lost outright, not covering -2 (ESPN box score).
“Buffalo versus Pittsburgh, over 6.5 goals, minus 105. Break this one down for us. Best covering team in Buffalo is the Sabres. So you see changes in teams early when you get on. We were on the Sabres over the other night in Calgary against the Flames. And I'm going to go back to the well with this team because, frankly, things haven't changed much for them. They're second in the league in goals per game at 4.11. They're placing some of the fastest players up and down the ice right now. The pace is incredible. Head coach Don Granato has basically said, hey, we're going to give up some goals, but we're going to outscore you at the same time. The leader of this offense is a guy named Paige Thompson. Kid is 25 years old. Most people don't even know who he is. He's 6'7". That's right, 6'7". Usually guys that tall are defensively. No, he's a forward. He has hands as good as the best of them. Six points in the Sabres' last game against Detroit, and he could have had eight. It's scoring depth from lines one to four right now for this team that is really carrying them. The goaltending hasn't been great, though. And the Penguins probably should have plenty of scoring opportunities here. Eric Comrie, we'll start for the Sabres here. He 3 in goal which isn too bad but he given up 3 goals per game in those six appearances And he facing a Pittsburgh team that should have plenty of motivation The Penguins have had an awful road trip out west losing to the Edmonton Oilers Calgary Flames Vancouver Canucks and even the Seattle Kraken. So they just came home last night to face the Bruins on national TV. They blew a three-goal lead late in the second period, gave up the last goal less than two minutes ago to go to overtime, and then lost it. The offense has been struggling but broke out for five goals, but the goal-pending just hasn't been good enough. Each of these teams has firepower in the defensive group, and both coaches have admitted to playing fast-paced hockey while giving up some high-danger chances here. You should see another 5-3 or 6-4 game here. We're going to go to a level-two lock on Wednesday, over six-and-a-half total goals, minus 105, Buffalo Sabres, Pittsburgh Penguins.”
BUF 6-PIT 3 — Buffalo beat Pittsburgh 6-3; the combined 9 goals clears the over 6.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Kent State minus 6.5 versus Ball State. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so you've got a team. Ball State's 4-4. They're traveling to play Kent State. They've got the better record. You know, why are they an underdog buying 6.5 points? Well, actually, Kent State's the better team. I really like their quarterback, Collins Lee. A lot of people don't know the name. People don't follow him, action. But a kid that can throw and run the ball. Actually, a really good running quarterback. And, you know, you get to this time of the season, weather is important. Also playing at home midweek. Midweek teams traveling have been a really poor proposition, hitting only about 38% of the time. So this team, Kent State, has played a really tough schedule. I think it's going to harden them for the conference play down the stretch. They had to go to Washington to open the season, lost 45-20. They had to travel to Oklahoma. They also played at Georgia. And in that game, they lost just 39-22. So probably play Georgia as tougher, tougher than even Florida. So they'll be ready for this. Colin Schlee missed the last game. He will play this week here. Nothing special, nothing at all about Ball State here. And Ball State plays absolutely no defense. So I don't think they've faced a quarterback like this. So that's going to pose some real problems. I mean, look at who they play. Teams like Western Michigan, Murray State, Georgia Southern, Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, UConn, and Eastern Michigan. They are not ready for this type of game here. We're going to go with Kent State at home here. Latest six and a half.”
BALL 27-KENT 20 — Ball State upset Kent State 27-20 on Nov 1, 2022; Kent State lost outright, not covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Warriors and Miami is now a pick-em, Lee. Talk about this one. the sudden movement on this line. Talk about this and break it down for us. Okay, so Golden State was in a really bad spot. They had to, after they beat the Heat, they had to end up going on the road, and I mean, it was just absolutely ugly. Saturday night, they lose to Charlotte They battled back took it to overtime and lost and then had to play a back at Detroit the next night and were never really in it lose by 14 points They ended up resting play Thompson and now he be back here And some people will think, oh, well, Miami, you know, they lost to Golden State by 13 on Thursday night out in California. They'll come back, but Miami's got some real problems. What we're seeing is Tyler Hero just can't play defense. And when he can't play defense, they're just, you can't hide a guy out there now anymore. So they're going to be playing a team that can score in bunches. So now he's going to have to do something to play defense or bring someone else in. And then Victor Oladipo, I mean, he hasn't played this year. It looks like he's got problems in his other knee. They've only got one guy coming off the bench, Max Kroos. He's not a guy that can guard a shooting guard. So they just don't have the bodies right now with only really one decent guy off the bench. I mean, they even had to resort to playing Udonis Haslam seven minutes in their last game. So Kyle Lowry has been an absolute failure of a pickup last year. They have no power forward. They're playing Caleb Martin at 6'5", at power forward here. So in every single position right now, maybe, except for Jimmy Butler, I think Golden State's going to take him. And Golden State is not going to go out and party. Trust me, after losing two straight in Miami, which some teams do here, I like Golden State big here. A low-out special number two, Golden State pick him over the Miami Heat.”
MIA 116-GSW 109 — Miami beat Golden State 116-109; the Warriors lost outright, so the pick'em loses (ESPN box score).
“Phoenix minus 3.5 versus the T-Wolves. Break this one down for us, Lee. T-Wolves can't play defense. So if you can't play defense, you're not going to get very far in this league. And, you know, they're retooled. The teams are going big now. Yeah. You know, they've got some guys in the middle that can, you know, really rebound like Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert. And that's great. But this league is about scoring. So if you can score and you can defend, that's great. Rebounding. OK. Just need to be in the middle of the pack. So they're trying to find themselves. They're going to play a Phoenix team that's putting it all together. We talked about it last week, team at home that can score, believes himself at home, is a tough out. Devin Booker playing at a really high level So I just think that here a team that shares the ball Phoenix Cameron Johnson stepping right in Macau Bridges Chris Paul distributing the ball averaging over 10.8 assists this year. So they are just so deep. They go 11, 12 deep here in Minnesota. You know, if this was at home, maybe you'd give them a look here, but they're not ready for this yet. But Phoenix Suns blowout number three, laying the three and a half tonight over the Minnesota Timberwolves.”
PHX 116-MIN 107 — Phoenix beat Minnesota 116-107, winning by 9 to cover Suns -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“How about the Sacramento Kings and the Charlotte Hornets? [4:55] Neither one of these teams are very good. [4:57] The Kings are one and four. [4:58] The Hornets are three and three. [4:59] I'm assuming this is going to be a really, really well hidden gem. [5:03] BetOnline.net line for this one. [5:05] The Kings minus three versus the Hornets. [5:07] Let's break this one down for us, Lee. [5:08] So I'm hiding it all completely at the bottom of my Halloween candy. [5:13] There you go. [5:13] So sometimes when you get two bad teams, there's a really good angle in this game. [5:19] And this Sacramento team is an absolutely awful road team. [5:26] And how have they fared against Charlotte? [5:29] Not good at all. [5:30] So bad that when they played, they have not covered seven of the last eight times. [5:36] So we see Charlotte seems to dominate them. [5:40] And some people say, oh, well, you know, how can you end up taking a Charlotte team that's maybe missing one of their key guys? [5:49] Okay, yeah, they're missing ball, but what they're doing is they're spreading the ball around. [5:54] So P.J. Washington playing really good ball. [5:58] 31 points in their upset win in overtime against Golden State. [6:03] Gordon Hayward already four times above 20 points this season so solid player you know he's plagued [6:11] by injuries he's healthy right now Kelly Oubre Jr. playing really good ball averaging 16 and a [6:17] half points and who's the point guard filling in during this time Dennis Smith Jr. and doing a [6:23] really good job distributing the ball well he had eight assists and nine rebounds in their game and [6:29] And even Plumlee, Mason Plumlee doing a good job dominating the middle. [6:34] Only six points, but only took four shots, but had nine rebounds and seven assists. [6:40] So what we're doing is we're seeing a team that shares the ball more. [6:44] And just think that the Sacramento team just is high and mighty off their upset win over the Heat, [6:50] which, well, the Heat really isn't that good. [6:52] So it's not impressive. [6:54] They're missing a bunch of key players for that game. [6:57] So I just think Sacramento goes on the road. [7:00] They're a young team. [7:01] Maybe, maybe when my kids have kids, they'll be good, but not now here. [7:08] We're going to take Charlotte here. [7:10] We're going to go to the hidden gem. [7:12] Charlotte Hornets here tonight over the Sacramento Kings.”
SAC 115-CHA 108 — Sacramento beat Charlotte 115-108; the Hornets lost by 7, not covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“The Bengals and the Browns. [7:40] Cincinnati is four and three. [7:41] Cleveland is two and five. [7:43] BetOnline.net line. [7:44] On this one, we're going to roll with the Bengals and Browns. [7:47] Under 45.5 total points. [7:49] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:50] So I'm not going to try to play this game. [7:52] This could be a three or four point game here either way. [7:55] Got some key injuries. [7:56] Obviously, Jamar Chase for Cincinnati. [7:59] So they don't have the firepower they normally have. [8:02] Then on the other side, David Njoku, tied in, was really coming on for Cleveland. [8:07] And I just don't trust Jacoby Brissett. [8:10] Just don't think he's even a decent backup here. [8:13] They're 2-5. [8:14] They can't make that one play to win games, but they hang close. [8:17] You know, whether it's an injury, a turnover, they find so many different ways to lose games. [8:23] That's Cleveland in a nutshell. [8:25] So now we have a total here of 45.5 total points. [8:31] We know that Cleveland's going to run the football. [8:34] That's what they're all about. [8:35] And they run the football. [8:37] Hey, tick-tock, tick-tock takes a lot of time off the clock. [8:42] And I just don't think Cincinnati's going to be explosive enough to, you know, score 27, 30 points. [8:48] So I see a game probably, I don't know, 17, 30, 13 here, 20 to 16. [8:57] I'm going to go under 45 and a half points here.”
CLE 32-CIN 13 — Cleveland beat Cincinnati 32-13; the combined 45 points stays under the 45.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Houston and Philadelphia. [9:52] Houston, in my opinion, should be up 2-0, but they're not. [9:54] It's 1-1. [9:55] They're all knotted up at 1. [9:57] We're going to roll with this one. [9:58] BetOnline.net line. [10:00] Game three of the World Series. [10:01] Houston Moneyline minus 130 versus Philadelphia. [10:04] Break this one down for us. [10:06] Okay, so we have an existing bet going on the series. [10:10] We have the Phillies plus one and a half games. [10:13] Looks pretty good. [10:14] They got the split. [10:15] So the key is when you're betting a series, don't bet with your heart. [10:20] Don't bet with, even if you have a series play, [10:23] you have to look at each game individually. [10:25] I understand this is a really tough place to play if you're a visitor. [10:29] And Philadelphia, you know, could be a tough out in the series, [10:35] but I think that the Phillies need to rest. [10:38] Nola and Wheeler here after the first two games, [10:41] given all those innings that they've thrown this season and postseason. [10:45] and I think the Phillies' biggest weakness is going to show here. [10:49] Noah Syndergaard. [10:50] He starts with them tonight, and there's a reason he's the number four starter [10:55] on this team and only has five innings through postseason so far. [10:59] He's not the same pitcher he was years ago in New York. [11:02] He's well beyond his prime, and he's facing an Astros lineup [11:06] that has gotten even hotter since the World Series began. [11:09] Jose Altuve didn have a postseason hit before game one of this series Now he got four of them Cal Tucker can miss the ball if he tried And even guys like Max McCormick are really pitching in right now [11:24] I'd be shocked if Syndergaard makes it more than one time, [11:29] maybe through the Astros lineup. [11:31] And that leaves a really top-heavy Phillies bullpen to pitch six to seven innings. [11:35] Lance McCullers, on the other hand, has plenty of playoff experience, should have plenty of juice for this start here after missing most of the season. [11:47] And he can last, I think, 100 to 110 pitches if need be. [11:51] Both of these bullpens badly needed a night off here. [11:56] And I just don't see the Phillies being able to give their relievers that kind of game here. [12:01] take the better pitcher and the better offense. [12:05] They're heating up at the perfect time here. [12:08] I think they're going to win this game 6-3, 7-3. [12:11] Houston Astros, money line, minus 130 here. [12:16] Game three in the World Series. [12:19] Level one lock over the Philadelphia Phillies.”
PHI 7-HOU 0 — The rained-out Game 3 was played Nov 1 in Philadelphia; the Phillies shut out Houston 7-0, so Astros ML loses (ESPN recap).
“Of course, the Phillies and the Astros, they square up. [2:43] Game one is this evening. [2:45] We're going to talk about the series in this one, though. [2:47] Betonline.net line for this one. [2:49] the Phillies plus one and a half games minus 120 versus the Astros in the series, in the [2:55] World Series. [2:56] Break this one down so there's no confusion, Lee. [2:58] Let me know about it. [2:59] All right. [3:00] So we're not going to just go for a winner in game one, but we're going to go for a series [3:06] play and a different type of play. [3:09] So when you first look through the matchup and how each team ranks statistically throughout [3:15] the Major League Baseball season. [3:18] It's hard to argue that the Astros dominate this thing and take home their second World [3:24] Series. [3:25] They have the better offense, better bullpen, better defense, and probably the better starting [3:30] rotation as well. [3:32] But the difference in this series, I think, comes down to Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler. [3:38] These two have been one of the best two-headed monster duos that I've seen in all of baseball. [3:45] the last five to six years. [3:46] And they showed that throughout this postseason, [3:50] this Phil's team may not have been as good as the Cards or the Braves [3:55] or even the Padres, but Wheeler and Nola, [3:58] when they combined five and two with 11 total earned runs since this playoff [4:02] started. [4:03] And I think they're going to steal a game for the Phillies here on the road [4:08] at some point. [4:09] In fact, [4:10] I think these two guys are going to combine for three or even four wins in the series Then you look at the momentum this Phillies team has right now Every single home game at Citizens Bank Park feels like it going to be a blowout in favor [4:25] of what they call themselves, the fans call this team, and all their teams, the fightin' Philz. [4:33] It is just a crazed frenzy in there. [4:37] Remember, this Astros team was a heavy favorite to win the American League. [4:41] They went on the road and faced an awful Mariners offense, awful. [4:48] And then a Yankees group, hey, ran out of steam in September. [4:52] This team is full of veteran leadership and elite hitters up and down the lineup, [4:57] but they just didn't face a hostile environment here in the American League [5:01] like they will in the Phillies' home crowd. [5:03] Justin Verlander and Jose Altuve have both really struggled in postseason. [5:08] I think if that continues, the Phillies win this series outright. [5:13] Jimmy, plus one and a half games here, I think we see at least a game seven of the World Series. [5:20] We go to game seven, it's a winner. [5:23] Phillies win it outright, just icing on the cake here. [5:26] So we're going to go with the fight and fills of Philadelphia Phillies, [5:30] plus one and a half games, minus 120 over the Houston Astros. [5:38] Wrong team favorite.”
Houston won the 2022 World Series 4 games to 2, a series margin greater than 1.5 games, so Philadelphia +1.5 games did not cover (Wikipedia: 2022 World Series).
“Phillies pitcher Aaron Nolia. [6:20] BetOnline.net line for this one. [6:22] We're going to talk about total strikeouts in the game. [6:24] Aaron Nolia over five and a half strikeouts, minus 110. [6:27] break this one down for us, Lee. [6:29] Okay, we mentioned it already, but Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler [6:32] are going to have to steal some games for this Phillies team to pull the upset here. [6:37] Rob Thompson, Phillies manager, decided to start this off with Aaron Nola on plenty of rest, [6:43] and there's good reason why. [6:45] If you look at Nola's career against the Astros lineup, he's been nothing short of dominant. [6:51] I mean, in a combined 46 at-bats, the Astros lineup is hitting a dreadful 130 and just three extra base hits and 17 strikeouts against Nola. [7:03] That's a strikeout almost every four out of every 10 at-bats so far, and he's given up only one walk in all those at-bats as well. [7:13] Nola's hit six strikeouts in each of his three postseason appearances this year, [7:18] But there's another really important factor playing into this bet, the Phillies bullpen. [7:24] Phillies bullpen has been better this postseason, [7:27] but it certainly hasn't been good enough to pull the starters after four or five innings. [7:32] Rob Thompson, Phillies fans and NOLA supporters know this guy is going to have to go at least six innings [7:39] in this matchup for the Phillies to have a chance to win this game. [7:42] He's going to leave it all out there. [7:44] And I'd be shocked if he doesn't reach at least 100 pitches. [7:48] Thompson needs to save this bullpen for a three-to-four run lead here [7:53] rather than a tied game or a close one late. [7:56] And the longer this game stretches on in a close one, [8:01] the more chances Nola is going to have to reach those six strikeouts yet again. [8:06] Take the over five-and-a-half strikeouts here. [8:10] Hidden gem, Aaron Nola. [8:12] I think he's going to mow down the Houston Astros tonight.”
PHI 6-HOU 5 — Aaron Nola struck out 5 in 4.1 innings in Game 1 (Phillies won 6-5 in 10), falling short of the over 5.5 strikeouts line (ESPN box score). (Aaron Nola: 5 strikeouts in 4.1 IP)
“the Dream Hooper, [8:57] going up against Steve Mean Machine Garcia. [9:01] The Dream Hooper is 11-2-1. [9:03] Mean Machine Garcia is 12-5. [9:06] BetOnline.net line for this one. [9:08] The Dream Hooper is minus 300 versus Steve Mean Machine Garcia. [9:12] But we're actually going to talk about this one with Hooper by finish, minus 110. [9:17] Break this one down for us, Lee. [9:18] Okay, so to explain to anyone who's never bet a MMA fight by finish, that means he just has to win before the final bell in the third round. [9:29] So he can win by KO, TKO, any type of submission, or even a disqualification. [9:38] So that happens once in a while, too. [9:40] So Chase Hooper is only 23 years old, which is crazy. [9:46] he has already fight get this he fought six times in the UFC came to the UFC at 20 years old [9:54] he might have been the youngest fighter we've ever seen now he's had some good times and some bad [9:59] times three and three but he's fought some really good fighters and I think he's going to take this [10:07] fight by submission so may not happen in the first round but I think it'll happen by the second or [10:13] early third round here. You watch his kid Hooper and it looks like he's like 15 years old. It looks [10:20] like he's got acne. He's got to go home and put some zit medicine on. He looks that young. So he [10:29] looks way younger than 23 years old, but he's long. So he's 6'1", weighs 141 pounds, has a 75 [10:39] and a half inch reach. [10:41] Needs to develop a little bit more power, but he hangs in there. [10:45] One punch will probably not knock him out. [10:49] And I don't know if, you know, Garcia has much of a path to victory. [10:55] This kid, Garcia, is 30 years old, really has shown absolutely nothing, [11:00] hasn't fought the quality fighters here. [11:03] In fact, this is only his fourth fight in the UFC, and he's one and two. [11:11] I mean, he lost a fight to a similar fighter in his first fight against a fighter like this, [11:16] a Louis Pena, a long guy, and he lost a unanimous decision. [11:22] Hooper is much, much better, has much better submissions here, much better wrestling here. [11:27] So we're going to go with Chase the Dream Hooper. [11:30] I think it's going to be a blowout special. [11:34] I think he even gets it by submission, [11:36] but we're betting it by finish here over Stephen Garcia here.”
Steve Garcia defeated Chase Hooper by TKO (punches) in round 1 at UFC Fight Night on Oct 29, 2022, so Hooper to Win by Finish loses (Wikipedia: Chase Hooper).
“the Seattle Seahawks and the New York Giants, [12:18] two teams that probably everyone would agree are overachieving. [12:21] The Seahawks are 4-3. [12:22] The G-Men are 6-1. [12:25] BetOnline.net live for this one. [12:26] Seattle minus three versus the New York Giants. [12:29] Break this one down for us, Lee. [12:30] Two shocking teams this year. [12:34] Seattle, 4-3. [12:36] Giants, 6-1. [12:38] One of the main reasons is they winning the turnover battle Seattle plus three in turnover ratio The G plus six Both quarterbacks not turning the ball over Just playing smart [12:52] Both teams run the football extremely well. [12:54] Kenneth Walker, the third since he took over, has been lights out. [12:59] I thought he should have been the starter from day one, Taquan Barkley. [13:03] I think he's a top three running back. [13:04] I mean, he's averaging 104 rushing yards per game. [13:07] Also has a team-high 25 catches. [13:09] He looks even better than he was his rookie year. [13:15] He is big, strong, fast, durable. [13:19] Also, Daniel Jones can run the football. [13:22] When you have a quarterback with a dual threat and he's healthy, [13:27] that's a big plus, especially going on the road. [13:30] Seattle will have no DK Metcalf, one of their long ball threats, [13:35] and also going across the middle. [13:36] I think that hurts their offense. [13:38] and the G-men getting healthier on offense, on the offensive line, [13:42] and getting some reinforcements there off IR here. [13:46] In a low-scoring game, I think you look to the underdog here. [13:50] People are saying, oh, well, the Giants are luck's going to run out. [13:53] Well, I don't think it's going to be against Seattle. [13:56] We're going to go here with a level three luck all the way up to finish the week. [14:02] Strong. [14:03] The G-men, New York Giants, plus the three. [14:06] They beat the Seattle Seahawks 23-20.”
SEA 27-NYG 13 — Seattle beat New York 27-13; the Giants lost by 14, not covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“The Clippers on the season are 2-2. [5:09] They're going up against the OKC Thunder, who are 1-3 on the season. [5:13] BetOnline.net line for this one. [5:15] Clippers minus 7.5 versus the Thunder. [5:17] Break this one down for us, Lee. [5:18] Okay, so as a fan, I just don't like these games. [5:21] Can you imagine if you had tickets to every single game? [5:24] Think you know what? [5:25] I split my tickets in half. [5:27] But we're seeing teams come into town and playing two games, [5:31] back-to-backers usually one day apart. [5:34] I mean, it's ridiculous. [5:36] I mean, I know it's better for the players, the scheduling, [5:39] but it's not good for the fans here to see the same teams go out a couple days later. [5:44] Now, in the first game, they played a couple days ago, and in that game, what happened? [5:50] The Oklahoma City Thunder, they ended up getting their first win, 108-94. [5:55] And in that game, what we saw was the Clippers ended up, three of their top players end up not playing. [6:04] So Kawhi Leonard said he's got some knee soreness. [6:07] Okay. [6:08] You would have thought that that would have been cleared up, but he's not going to play tonight. [6:13] Paul George is questionable with an illness. [6:16] And Morris is questionable for personal reasons. [6:19] So, you know, even if they get back Paul George and Morris tonight, I mean, all of a sudden, are they going to, you know, they ended up losing that game by 14 points, win it by eight points or more. I just don't see it. Their defense was pretty good. I mean, actually really good. [6:37] They held Oklahoma City to just 38% shooting and 13%, 4 for 30 from three-point land. [6:46] All of a sudden, you know, are they going to end up scoring, you know, 115, 120 points? [6:52] I don't think so. [6:52] Paul George, when he was the only guy, when he was the number one option, he has not fared well. [6:57] So what we see every single night is Oklahoma City play hard. [7:02] Yeah, they're 1-3, but they're 3-1 against the spread. [7:05] and the one game they didn't cover was against Minnesota [7:09] when they were getting 9.5 points and lost by 10. [7:12] Yeah, they're going to eventually get blown out by teams with much more talent, [7:16] but I don't think so. [7:17] At home, they know that they can beat this team. [7:19] They beat them by 14 the other night. [7:21] I think this game goes down to the wire here. [7:24] We're going to say the wrong team is favored here. [7:27] We're going to go with the Oklahoma City Thunder [7:31] plus the points against the L.A. Clippers.”
OKC 118-LAC 110 — OKC Thunder won outright 118-110 at home, easily covering +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Dallas Stars and the Washington Capitals. [8:29] The Stars, four wins, two losses, and an overtime loss. [8:33] The Capitals, they're 4-3 on the season. [8:35] Going to roll with this one. [8:36] BetOnline.net line for this one. [8:37] The Stars, money line, minus 115. [8:39] Versus the Capitals. [8:40] Break this one down for us, Lee. [8:41] So the Stars got to be one of the most impressive surprises of the early NHL season so far. [8:49] They didn't do anything at all to address their offense this offseason, [8:53] and that had been their biggest weakness the last couple years. [8:57] Aside from goaltender Jake Oettinger, I don't think many people expected this team [9:02] to have enough star power to make a postseason push this season, [9:06] but the offense has done enough, and the defense has been even better [9:09] than usual under new coach Peter Dober. [9:13] And they're giving up just 2.14 goals per game, [9:17] which ranks second best in all hockey. [9:19] And they won their first two home games by a combined score of 9-1. [9:24] On the other end of things, the Washington Capitals have really struggled. [9:28] I mean, the power play has picked up a little bit for the Capitals [9:32] the last few games, but they're giving up power play goals [9:36] on 27% of main advantages. [9:40] The goaltending has been horrendous, [9:42] and they're not getting any contributions at all from their defensemen. [9:45] In fact, they only have three combined goals from their defensemen [9:48] through seven games, which is really unusual for them. [9:52] They're usually on power play. [9:54] Those guys can fire away from the blue line and make things happen. [9:58] I just think the Capitals team is holding on by the skin of their teeth right now, [10:03] And they're just not in a position to contend unless they get things going, you know, forward from their defensemen and also their goaltending, especially against a Stars team that is just frustrating. [10:17] And they have a solid structure that can frustrate these free-flowing teams like the Washington Capitals. [10:23] I think the line should be closer to 130, to minus 135, minus 115. [10:30] we're going to ride the Dallas Stars here [10:33] money line over the Washington Capitals”
DAL 2-WSH 0 — Dallas Stars shut out Washington 2-0 on the road; Stars ML wins (ESPN box score).
“Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Baltimore Ravens. [11:49] Funny about these records, man. [11:50] Tampa Bay is 3-4. [11:52] The Ravens are 4-3. [11:53] What gives, man? [11:55] BetOnline.net line for this one. [11:56] Tampa Bay minus 2 versus the Ravens. [11:58] Break this one down for us. [11:59] Okay, so what we've seen in the NFL, it looks like right now, out of the 32 teams, [12:05] like the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills are clearly the top two teams. [12:10] So with that being the case, it's going to be a wild battle for playoff position here. [12:15] Both of these teams, this is a big game for them. [12:18] Tampa Bay can win this. [12:20] They're back on track. [12:21] If Baltimore wins, who knows? [12:23] They can possibly win the division here. [12:25] But here what crazy here when you look at the Buccaneers So they have a 45 quarterback and you would think they be doing a lot of play action here That when they been successful But without Gronk [12:39] it seems like things just have not been right here. So they're number 32 in running play [12:45] percentage here. They've got to find a way to score early. Only 7.7 points per first half. [12:55] That ranks 28th here in the NFL out of 32 teams after being number two last year [13:02] when they were averaging almost 15 points in the first half. [13:07] So Tom Brady, you just can't wait until it's third and long to throw the football here. [13:12] And without Gronk's security blanket, they're in trouble. [13:16] And then on defense, Antoine Winfield, their star safety will not be a go here tonight. [13:20] So I think that's important. [13:22] They could end up giving up some big plays here. [13:25] He is, I mean, like a ball hawk. [13:27] It seems like if there's a running play, guy breaks through, he makes a big tackle. [13:31] A long pass, he ends up making up the break-up or comes up with the interception. [13:36] So we don't talk about that safety, you know, the free safety enough. [13:40] But he is that good and that important to this team. [13:42] So something's not right with Tampa Bay. [13:44] And it just seems like Lamar Jackson can cover up for any weakness they have, [13:49] whether it's on the offensive line or receiver here. [13:52] So I think Baltimore, Lamar Jackson here. [13:55] He can just make so many things happen here. [13:58] Might be a tight game, but I think they're going to come out on top here. [14:01] A level unlocked for a Thursday. [14:04] We're going with the Baltimore Ravens tonight, plus the two points, 24-20, [14:09] over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.”
BAL 27-TB 22 — Baltimore beat Tampa Bay outright 27-22 on Thursday Night Football, covering Ravens +2 (ESPN box score).
“The Edmonton Oilers and the St. Louis Blues. [3:43] The Oilers 3-3 on the season. [3:45] The Blues are 3 Betonline line for this one The Oilers minus 115 versus the Blues Break this one down for us Lee All right so the St Louis Blues biggest question mark coming into the season was whether their goaltender Jordan Binghamton [3:59] would regain that magic that he found when they won the Stanley Cup in 2019. [4:04] He had a couple really down years, and he lost his starting job, in fact, last year. [4:09] Now he's back to the number one spot, and he's been the Blues' right now biggest strength. [4:15] 3-0 with 1.65 goals against average, 940 save percentage, [4:21] which actually includes a shutout against Edmonton just the other night. [4:27] So he just looks so confident in that. [4:31] He's bailing out his defensemen. [4:33] He's avoiding those extracurricular stuff after the play. [4:37] He used to skate around, try to make sometimes too much happen, [4:41] and you get caught too far away from the net. [4:43] but not a problem anymore. [4:46] He's been very efficient, 22-6-4 in his career against the Pacific Division. [4:54] Blues lost their last game against Winnipeg 4-0, [4:57] and it was by far the worst game of the season. [5:00] They took a ton of penalties, and they were on the last stop [5:03] of a Western Canada road trip, and the matchup just wasn't there. [5:07] I think this game goes differently for them, though. [5:10] Edmonton coming off an emotional comeback win against the Penguins the other night. [5:15] Their goaltending still looks very shaky. [5:17] In fact, they've given up three-plus goals in all but one of their six games so far. [5:23] And they're in a tough, tough building for their first road matchup of the season. [5:28] And Icona McDavid has been held scoreless in each of the last two games. [5:32] And I just don't think that's sustainable here for the Oilers. [5:36] that just doesn't have enough depth at the forward position [5:40] in the top three lines here. [5:42] I'm going to take the home underdog here. [5:44] The wrong team is favored. [5:47] We're going with the St. Louis Blues. [5:48] I'll be singing the St. Louis Blues tonight here. [5:52] Money line plus 105 against the Edmonton Oilers.”
EDM 3, STL 1 — Edmonton beat St. Louis 3-1; Blues moneyline busts (ESPN).
“Ole Miss and Texas A&M, teams that are going definitely different directions. [6:26] Ole Miss cooking with grease, 7-1 right now in the season. [6:29] Texas A&M, not so much. [6:31] 3-4, what's going on at College Station? [6:34] BetOnline.net live for this one. [6:35] Ole Miss minus two and a half versus the Aggies. [6:38] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [6:39] Okay, we could sit here all day, and I could explain all the problems with A&M. [6:44] I'm going to give you maybe the top four or top five reasons here. [6:47] So, looks like Jimbo Fisher has lost this team. [6:51] And I could see them not making a bowl. [6:54] I mean, they got problems. [6:56] They got quarterback problems. [6:58] Already lost their starter, Johnson, for the year. [7:01] The guy took over second stringer. [7:03] He got banged up. [7:04] He couldn't even finish the last game. [7:07] The offensive line lost three starters in the game on Saturday night [7:13] against South Carolina. [7:14] Three. [7:15] You cannot function efficiently on offense without three starters. [7:20] I don't care who you are. [7:21] Even the great teams of Alabama when they were rolling couldn't do it. [7:25] Their defense ranks 102nd against the run. [7:30] And what does Ole Miss do? [7:32] They run the football. [7:33] They ranked third in the country averaging over 251 yards and 5 yards per carry A on offense 109th in scoring here So I mean it just goes on and on and on [7:49] If you've lost the team, they suspended three guys. [7:51] I mean, they got guys doing all kinds of extracurricular activities [7:57] to get suspended here. [7:59] That great freshman class of last year, number one in the country, [8:02] I wouldn't be surprised if seven or eight of those guys aren't even there [8:05] there at the end of spring practice at the end of this year. [8:09] So, I mean, the list goes on and on and on. [8:13] I just think that Ole Miss, [8:15] they faced an unbelievably hot quarterback last week in Jaden Daniels. [8:20] So sometimes, you know what, just not your day. [8:24] This is a good team here. [8:25] And I think Lane Kiffin is also a better play caller right now [8:29] than Jimbo Fisher here. [8:30] It's a two and a half. [8:32] You want to get it right now. [8:33] This line can close three and a half, four points here. [8:37] Blowout special, Ole Miss over Texas A&M on Saturday.”
Ole Miss 31, Texas A&M 28 — Ole Miss beat Texas A&M 31-28, a 3-point margin that covers Ole Miss -2.5 (Wikipedia game summary).
“The Denver Nuggets against the LA Lakers. [9:55] On paper, this looks like a fantastic matchup. [9:58] Right now in the young season, the Nuggets are 2-2. [10:00] The Lakers are 0-3. [10:03] BetOnline.net live for this one. [10:04] The Nuggets minus six versus the Lake Show. [10:06] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [10:07] Yeah, I mean, the Lakers, there's no two ways around it. [10:10] They've been an absolute disappointment. [10:13] 0-3 straight up and against the spread. [10:15] But here's what's crazy. [10:17] You'll look by the end of the season. [10:19] Even the worst teams. [10:20] You know, there's 82 games. [10:23] They'll cover 35, 37 games. [10:26] No one covers just 20, 25 games. [10:28] So this is an adjusted line here. [10:30] If they would have played the first game of the season, think about it. [10:33] Probably would have been Denver minus two. [10:37] So now you're getting six points here. [10:39] Lakers' problem is scoring here. [10:42] They made just 40.7% of their field goals, which is 30th in the league. [10:48] They're just hitting 21% of the three-pointers here, also 30th in the league. [10:57] Also, just 24 assists per game. [11:00] That's 17th in the league. [11:03] I mean, it goes on and on. [11:04] But two players are playing extremely well. [11:07] LeBron James and Anthony Davis continue to play well. [11:11] And they just need a little bit of help, just a little bit, from the supporting cast. [11:16] Russell Wilson, I mean, there was one game, I think he was 0 for 11 this year. [11:22] I mean, horrific. [11:23] He's not going to play that bad again here. [11:25] And Denver is one of those teams, even though, you know, [11:29] they two and two and one and three against the spread here They absolutely got blown out against Portland They have some games they just don show up here So I like their team on paper here [11:41] Just don't think that they're mentally tough. [11:43] And their defense, you know, we talk about, [11:46] and everyone loves to watch offense and the NBA in every sport. [11:50] But you look at the champions every year. [11:52] Look at football. [11:53] You look at the champions the last 10 years in the NFL. [11:56] They're always in top three or top five in defense. [12:00] Basketball. [12:01] Who were two of the teams, two of the top three defensive teams last year? [12:05] The Boston Celtics, and believe it or not, the Golden State Warriors. [12:10] So the Nuggets just don't play defense, giving up 122.3 points for 100 possessions here. [12:18] Dead last, an opposing field goal percentage, 50%, and 25th in opposing three-point percentage field goals here. [12:27] that's at 40%. [12:29] So I think it's going to be a tight game here. [12:32] It wouldn't shock me if the Lakers win this game. [12:35] So we're going to go with a level two lock, [12:38] the LA Lakers plus the six points. [12:41] I'm going to even sprinkle some money here on the Lakers plus the money line. [12:45] If they hit it big, I might be paying for, [12:48] we're having a family dinner on Friday night for everyone. [12:51] So level two lock Lakers tonight over the Denver Nuggets. [12:56] There you go, right there at the Lake Show, getting off the snide, man, [12:59] getting the first victory of the season over the Denver Nuggets, [13:02] a team that looks to be really good this year. [13:04] You know, they got a lot of talent. [13:05] Of course, they got a lot of players back. [13:07] So there you go. [13:08] I like that matchup, the Nuggets, Lakers. [13:10] Again, betonline.net line, Nuggets minus six versus the Lakers. [13:13] Lee Sterling picking them to go ahead and get that dub. [13:16] I like that. [13:16] There you go. [13:17] Level two lock on this Wednesday.”
DEN 110, LAL 99 — Denver beat the LA Lakers 110-99, an 11-point margin that exceeds Lakers +6; spread busts (ESPN).
“the New England Patriots against the New York Jets The Patriots 3 The Jets are 5 It funny I actually super shocked that you know the records aren reversed right [3:26] with the Patriots being 5-2 and the Jets being 3-4. [3:28] But here we are. [3:29] BetOnline.net line for this one. [3:31] The Patriots minus 1.5 versus the Jets. [3:33] What am I missing here, Lee? [3:34] Seems like the Jets should be favored in this one. [3:36] Yep. [3:37] So the Jets, a lot of people are going to look at this line and say, [3:40] why aren't they favored? [3:41] I'm going to jump all over it [3:44] they're at home [3:45] and here's why [3:47] the Jets I think that that was [3:50] an emotional hard fought game [3:52] on Sunday at Denver [3:54] and [3:55] they lost two key players [3:57] Brees Hall who I think had a chance to be rookie [4:00] of the year [4:01] here's a guy hitting just six games [4:03] and granted he was split and carry [4:05] especially the first couple games [4:07] may have had very few carries [4:09] In fact, 463 yards, four touchdowns, three long touchdowns. [4:15] Caught 19 balls for over 200 yards and one long touchdown. [4:19] So he was their home run hitter. [4:22] I think it's a big loss. [4:23] They lost their best lineman. [4:25] People discount how important offensive linemen are. [4:28] I've seen sometimes in college games, [4:31] a team is missing two or three of their best offensive linemen. [4:34] Line doesn't move. [4:35] But you can put an average quarterback or a poor quarterback out. [4:38] line moves two, three, four points. [4:40] So I don't get it. [4:42] The Jets, I think, are going to have some real troubles moving forward at quarterback. [4:46] Zach Wilson just doesn't look great. [4:49] You know, now, you know, they've already had some injuries. [4:52] One of their key injuries, Davis, he ended up not being able to finish the game here. [4:57] Elijah Moore is going to come back. [4:59] But people were going to think, you know, the Jets at home against the Patriots, [5:03] who looked absolutely horrible, an absolute no-show on Monday night, easy winner. [5:10] Don't fall for the trap here. [5:11] There's always a couple trap lines once every three or four weeks. [5:14] This is an absolute trap line. [5:16] We're going to hear all week about the quarterback controversy. [5:19] Who are they going to go? [5:20] Who's Hootie Boy going to go with a quarterback? [5:23] I'm not falling for the trap. [5:25] I'm going with New England here. [5:26] They're actually favored by one and a half. [5:29] I think they win this game. [5:31] They might win it easy here. [5:33] he will have his team ready to play on Sunday afternoon in the Meadowlands [5:37] blowout special New England Patriots over the New York Jets.”
NE 22, NYJ 17 — New England beat the New York Jets 22-17, a 5-point margin that covers Patriots -1.5 (Wikipedia game summary).
“the Florida Panthers and the Chicago Blackhawks? [6:08] The Panthers on the season, four wins, one loss, and an overtime loss. [6:12] And the Chicago Blackhawks, well, they're three wins and two losses so far on the young season. [6:17] BetOnline.net line for this one. [6:19] The Panthers minus one and a half goals plus 100. [6:22] If you want to play the money line, it's Panthers money line minus 230 for the Panthers in that favor. [6:28] But we're not going with the money line here, Lee. [6:30] Break this one down for us. [6:31] Yeah we going to go with the Panthers minus the one and a half goals plus 100 Why All right So given their playoff struggles in recent years I think the Florida Panthers know their real season is going to start in April [6:42] when the postseason begins. [6:44] But this team is still playing like it's eyeing the top spot [6:48] in the Eastern Conference at the end of the regular season. [6:51] They've been dominant early in the season, yet again, going 4-1-1 so far [6:55] with both losses coming to cup contenders. [6:58] They've outshot their opponents in four of the six games so far as well. [7:02] The offense actually hasn't been as powerful yet as it was last year, [7:06] but the defensive group has really stepped up since their number one defenseman, [7:11] Eric Ekblad, went down with an injury. [7:13] Sergei Bobrovsky, the goal tender here, [7:16] gets a start after getting the night off against New York, so he'll be fresh. [7:21] The problem here is for Chicago, they've struggled early generally in the season. [7:27] They're second to last in the NHL in shots on goal per game, [7:32] In fact, they haven't had more than 30 shots on net in a single game. [7:35] They're coming off an emotional comeback win against Seattle the other night. [7:41] But now they're getting into the meat of their schedule. [7:44] They have Florida, Edmonton, Buffalo, and Minnesota on tap for this homestand. [7:49] And they're not going to be able to do it with their number one goalie, Peter Masrak. [7:54] Peter Masrak is out with an injury. [7:57] Alex Dalek is going to step in. [7:59] career 263 goals against average is going to have to face all of these offenses here. [8:06] And this is going to be a blowout by the road team. [8:11] Florida Panthers minus the one and a half goal here. [8:15] Blowout special over the Chicago Blackhawks.”
CHI 4, FLA 2 — Chicago beat Florida 4-2; Panthers -1.5 busts on the outright loss (ESPN).
“the Phoenix Suns and the Golden State Warriors, both teams on the young season, two and one. [9:03] BetOnline.net line for this one. [9:05] Phoenix, minus one and a half versus Golden State. [9:08] This line could change. [9:09] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [9:10] Okay. [9:10] Everyone's going to want to watch it. [9:12] Everyone's going to want to bet it. [9:14] Everyone's going to want to win it. [9:16] And I'm fired up about this game. [9:19] I think I've got the right side. [9:21] So both teams, two and one. [9:22] You're saying, well, defending champions here, the Golden State Warriors, they know how to win big games. [9:30] Maybe I'll go with them. [9:31] Well, maybe not. [9:33] Here's why. [9:34] They are not a real good defensive team early in the season. [9:38] We saw it happen last year. [9:40] So, they're scoring points like crazy, but allowing 120.7 points per game the first three games. [9:48] Defense is all about effort. [9:50] and right now guys just running down the floor and they just outscoring people Phoenix really good home team They start off generally really strong We seen it season after season here [10:03] So I think that they're going to be ready to go here. [10:08] Chris Paul, you know, just third player to record 11,000 assists the other night. [10:13] Devin Booker poured in 35 points. [10:16] When he's scoring, they seem to everyone else play much better here. [10:20] So Golden State, as I mentioned, struggled the first three games, [10:26] and I'm just not ready to back them in this type of environment. [10:31] They've only covered the spread, believe it or not, the Warriors, [10:35] three times in the last nine road games, and tough crowd there. [10:39] They get up. [10:40] People don't think about home field advantage. [10:43] You don't think about Phoenix, but it is one of the toughest places to play. [10:47] They are really loud. [10:48] They really back their team, [10:50] And for some reason, Phoenix plays well at home, 5-1, last six home games here, [10:56] and beat a good Clippers team the other night. [10:59] Clippers are going to be one of the top three or four teams, I think, [11:03] at the end of the season in that conference. [11:06] And Suns have already beaten Dallas at home this year. [11:09] I'm going to lay the small spot here. [11:12] Phoenix Suns blowout special number three [11:16] over defending champion Golden State Warriors tonight in NBA action.”
PHX 134, GS 105 — Phoenix beat Golden State 134-105, a 29-point margin that covers Suns -1.5 (ESPN).
“the Philadelphia Sixers going up against the Indiana Pacers? [3:49] The Sixers on the season, all their talent, they're 0-3. [3:52] The Pacers, they're 1-2. [3:54] BetOnline.net line for this one. [3:56] The 76ers minus 12 versus the Pacers Break this one down for us Lee So do I think that Philadelphia might be a good team Yes I think they might end up with a 2 seed [4:07] At worst, maybe 4 seed. [4:09] But I spot some deficiencies. [4:12] They have absolutely no bench. [4:15] We're talking about in their last game, [4:19] they scored a total of 10 points off the bench. [4:22] That's it. [4:23] You've got to get more than that. [4:24] And we're talking about Joel Embiid had 40 points in the game. [4:29] Maxie, very smart. [4:30] Love his game. [4:31] He had 25. [4:34] Tobias Harris chipped in with about his average. [4:37] He chipped in with 15 points. [4:39] James Harden didn't have a great game. [4:42] I mean, as usual, shot a lot. [4:44] I mean, missed a lot. [4:46] We know what James Harden is all about. [4:49] Last game, he was four for 18 and one for six from three-pointer. [4:52] And what we're seeing is P.J. Tucker. [4:55] I think he's washed. [4:56] He just can't move. [4:57] I mean, the guy is 37 years old. [5:02] A lot of people said, oh, Miami should have signed him to a two- or three-year contract. [5:06] Well, he couldn't move at the end of last year. [5:08] A little bit of it was injuries, but he just can't guard, you know, those players that are young [5:13] and just have that quick muscle twitch and can just drive right by it. [5:17] So I think he's got some deficiencies. [5:20] And like I said, there's no bench there. [5:22] So I think, you know, they've got a few guys that might develop there. [5:25] They might have to trade for some guys. [5:27] But right now they're going to face an Indiana team that's hungry. [5:31] That is 1-2, but they won their last game against Detroit. [5:36] And I just think that they're going to go up and down the court. [5:39] And like some of the young players, I mean, they drafted a kid that's going to be a super stud. [5:45] This kid out of Arizona, Matherin. [5:48] And so, Bennett Mathren, 6'6", 210, originally from Canada, played at Arizona, scored 27 points off the bench last week. [6:00] Finds 12 and a half. [6:01] They got some young guys that are hungry. [6:03] Yeah, you know, they got a guy like Buddy Held. [6:05] He's been around. [6:06] This is his seventh year. [6:07] But Tyrese Halliburton, you know, he can beat, I think, any guard that Philadelphia has and scored, you know, 20, 25 points. [6:17] and young and other guys that, like I said, want to chip in here. [6:20] So I just think that Philadelphia, hey, they might win the game. [6:24] Twelve and a half points, way too much. [6:27] Wrong team favored. [6:28] Let's go with the Indiana Pacers tonight plus the points [6:31] to keep it close against the Philadelphia 76ers.”
PHI 120, IND 106 — Philadelphia beat Indiana 120-106, a 14-point margin that exceeds Pacers +12.5; spread busts (ESPN).
“the Patriots and the Bears. [7:22] The Patriots 3-3 on the season. [7:24] The Bears are 2-4. [7:26] BetOnline.net line for this one. [7:27] New England minus 8 versus Chicago. [7:29] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [7:30] So, I like this kid, Bailey Zappi. [7:33] When he was drafted in the fourth round, starting late second, early third, [7:37] I'm like, someone is going to get a steal here. [7:40] I watched him play at Western Kentucky. [7:42] I think he was at Houston Baptist. [7:44] then transferred for his last year. [7:46] But kid is something special. [7:48] Just stepped right in. [7:49] He's undefeated. [7:51] Both games impressive. [7:54] Now they got the running game going. [7:57] Stevenson he rushed for 237 yards in the last two weeks And I mean Justin Fields I mean this is just disaster here If he has a clean pocket he is really good [8:10] But without a clean pocket, he's in trouble here. [8:13] So you get a New England defense that, you know, just figures out. [8:17] And they just suffocate struggling quarterbacks here. [8:21] Check this out. [8:22] 31 and 10 against the spread versus below 500 opponents [8:26] or the Patriots the last 41 games here. [8:30] And, you know, hey, the Bears' defense is decent. [8:33] But, you know, they're going to be in trouble here. [8:36] I mean, they're going to be faced with, you know, [8:38] maybe turning the ball over, New England having some short fields. [8:42] And then once New England gets up, you know, [8:44] and Justin Fields has to throw the ball two of every three times, [8:47] they're in trouble. [8:48] He can run a little bit, make some things happen, [8:50] just does not have the talent around him that he needs. [8:54] And how about this? [8:55] one in 10. That's the record of Justin Fields, [8:59] one in 10 going on the road in his young career here. So, um, [9:04] Hey road games, not, not kind to Justin Fields. [9:08] We'll take new England here. [9:11] Blowout special or Chicago bears on Monday night football.”
CHI 33, NE 14 — Chicago beat New England 33-14 outright on Monday Night Football; Patriots -8 busts (ESPN).
“The Houston Rockets and the Utah Jazz. [10:53] The Rockets 0-3 on the season. [10:55] The Jazz, pretty surprising, 3-0 on the season. [10:59] BetOnline.net line for this one. [11:00] Rockets and Jazz, Lee, it's actually a pick-em game, [11:03] and I'm a little confused. [11:04] Break this one down for me. [11:05] Okay, so I think one of the main reasons this game is a pick-em is, [11:11] and one of the main reasons I'm playing it is Utah's on a back-to-back. [11:15] So they had to play an overtime game yesterday. [11:20] That's right, an overtime game at New Orleans. [11:23] And it's not a long trip, but you play an extra period where they won 122 to 121. [11:29] Emotional game, Jordan Clarkson played extremely well in that game. [11:33] You know, there was a case where he ends up taking down Zion. [11:39] And, you know, I just think it was an emotional win for this team. [11:43] They're getting a lot of support. [11:44] Kelly Olenek had 20 points yesterday on 7-12 shooting, two or three from three-pointers. [11:51] Lauren Markkinen, who was like an afterthought with Chicago, he scored 31 points last night. [12:00] Jordan Clarkson now a starter He chipped in and had another big game So everything going great but now they are the team playing a back And that tough in the NBA especially on the road [12:14] It's their third game here, and they played Friday night. [12:17] They had to go to Minnesota, won that game, went down to the end, 132-126. [12:23] Then they had to go to New Orleans. [12:24] Now they've got to go over to Houston. [12:26] Now, Houston, they ended up losing their last game, [12:30] and they were on a back-to-backer after playing Memphis at home, [12:33] having to go all the way up to Milwaukee. [12:35] They played three really tough opponents. [12:38] At Atlanta, Memphis, I mean, we know what Memphis did last year. [12:42] They shocked the world. [12:43] And then at Milwaukee. [12:45] So I think they sense they have a chance to win this game here. [12:49] Remember, this is a back-to-backer here also. [12:52] They're playing, these two teams are playing again on Wednesday night. [12:54] So I don't think the emphasis right now for Utah is, you know, they're happy. [13:01] They're sitting pretty at 3-0. [13:03] Hey, if they lose this game, they've got another game to get back at Houston on Wednesday night. [13:08] So we're seeing that a lot around the NBA, like the Miami Heat, [13:11] second game of a back-to-backer. [13:13] They're playing Toronto. [13:14] They played on Saturday night. [13:15] I personally don't like these type of situations. [13:19] But like I said, this Houston team is actually talented, just young. [13:23] Level one lock to start the week. [13:25] We're going with Houston here at home as a pick-em against the Utah Jazz.”
HOU 114, UTAH 108 — Houston beat Utah 114-108 outright; Rockets pick'em cashes (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. [3:15] The Cowboys minus 7 versus the Lions. [3:17] Break this one down for us, Lee. [3:18] So here's a crazy stat. [3:21] Matt Patricia wasn't real popular in Detroit as a head coach. [3:27] He was 5-17 his final 22 games as the Lions head coach. [3:32] Dan Campbell, you know, seems like a likable guy. [3:37] His record, Detroit's head coach, 4-17-1. [3:41] That includes 1-4 this year. [3:43] I know DeAndre Swift is coming back, but they got blown out by the Patriots two weeks ago, 29-0 here. [3:52] Cooper Raj, come on [3:55] no one in their right mind really thought he was [3:57] the guy here, now they have Dak [3:59] they can push the ball down the field, they don't have [4:01] to play conservative, CeeDee Lamb [4:03] Michael Gallup should have big games [4:04] Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, one of the [4:07] best one-two punches in the NFL [4:09] here, Detroit's defense [4:11] remember, dead last [4:12] the right team's favorite here [4:14] blowout special [4:16] Dallas by two touchdowns, 38-24”
DAL 24, DET 6 — Dallas beat Detroit 24-6; Cowboys moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“and the defending NBA champs, the Golden State Warriors, [4:57] who are 1-0 on the season, going up against the Denver Nuggets, [5:00] who are 0-1 on the season. [5:01] This is the WTF, the wrong team favorite. [5:05] BetOnline.net line for this one, the Warriors minus six versus Denver. [5:08] Lee, break this one down for me. [5:10] Okay, so you're looking at this and you're saying, [5:12] oh, okay, I can get the Golden State Warriors minus six points at home [5:16] against Denver, who was awful the other night against Utah. [5:21] They were down 20-something in the first half. [5:24] They played better in the second half, but I think they learned a lesson there. [5:27] I think they just were on cruise control. [5:29] They thought, oh, okay, we got Jamal Murray back. [5:32] We should be fine. [5:33] He wasn't terrible. [5:34] The rest of the starting lineup was good. [5:36] Michael Porter Jr., he shot 5 for 10 from the field. [5:41] Aaron Gordon, not bad at all. [5:43] He shot 10 for 17, and also Jokic, he had another good game, 12 for 17. [5:50] It was a supporting cast. [5:52] Kendall, a connivious callable Pope, he had an awful game, 0 for 3. [5:58] The bench, check this out, they shot a combined 8 for 23. [6:03] So I think they're going to give a better effort here. [6:06] Everything went easy. [6:08] Talked to the coaching staff from Golden State They were so happy after the game They just think they roll on This is where Denver does their best work as an underdog So I expect them to come out here take this game down to the wire [6:22] They might even win it out right here. [6:24] Wrong team favorite. [6:26] Believe it or not, that Denver Nuggets, plus the points, [6:30] might even knock off the NBA champion, Golden State Warriors, tonight.”
DEN 128, GS 123 — Denver beat Golden State 128-123 outright; Nuggets +6 cashes easily (ESPN).
“San Diego and the Phillies. [7:06] It's all knotted up at 1. [7:07] We'll tell you about it next. [7:08] Here on Locked on Bets. [7:11] Open it, open it, open it. [7:13] Lee has the key to the lock of the day. [7:16] All right, here we go. [7:17] Closing things out strong. [7:18] Lock of the day, the NLCS. [7:21] Oh, boy. [7:21] San Diego and the Phillies. [7:23] This is a fun one right here. [7:24] It's all knotted up at one. [7:26] BetOnline.net line for this one. [7:27] The Padres money line, minus 110 versus the Phillies. [7:30] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:32] Boy, this is going to be a game that I think is going to be really good here. [7:36] The Phillies have enjoyed arguably the best home field advantage of any team in baseball so far this postseason. [7:44] And there are two NL Division Series games. [7:47] They put up 17 runs and eliminated the Braves with pretty much ease. [7:52] I've been going back and through and tracking these two games at Philadelphia. [7:57] This offense, I don't think, can be replicated here because they face Spencer Strider, [8:03] who was hurt and lost his fastball velocity with every pitch in that game. [8:08] Nine of their 17 runs came by home run, [8:10] and they just had a couple really big innings [8:13] where they scored a vast majority of their runs. [8:17] But I don't think they're in a situation to do that again here. [8:21] Ranger Suarez, their young starter in this one, [8:23] was really shaking his first career postseason, [8:26] starting game one of the NLDS. [8:28] and he's facing a lineup that ranks second in Major League Baseball this postseason in OPS [8:34] against left-handed pitching. [8:36] The Phillies' offense really relies on momentum, [8:39] and I don't see Suarez having those quick innings on the mound that Aaron Nola [8:44] and also Zach Wheeler have had. [8:46] On the other side, Joe Musgrove has been phenomenal as well, [8:51] has 13 innings of two-run baseball with 13 strikeouts and two walks so far this postseason. [8:58] and he's not getting beat on bloop singles or late rallies. [9:03] The professional bettors right now are realizing that early surge by the [9:08] Phillies in game two was a bit of a fluke, [9:11] and this series should turn around in game three tonight. [9:13] Keep in mind how important that off days are coming here and game three as well These teams are going to rely on their bullpens more down the stretch here and the off day for travel is huge [9:26] In fact, the Padres are 18-4 the last 22 games following a day of rest here. [9:35] Level three lock all the way up. [9:38] San Diego Padres knock off the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.”
PHI 4, SD 2 — Philadelphia beat San Diego 4-2 in NLCS Game 3; Padres moneyline busts (ESPN).
“How about the Calgary Flames going up against the Buffalo Sabres? [4:16] The Flames are 3-0. [4:17] The Sabres are 2-1. [4:18] BetOnline.net live for this one. [4:20] We're going to roll over 6.5 goals, minus 120, [4:23] in the Flames versus Sabres game. [4:25] Break this one down for us, Lee. [4:27] This is crazy. [4:28] I don't think I've ever, since we started this show almost two years ago, [4:32] talked about Buffalo two times in one week and I don think I ever talked about Buffalo where I wasn going against them But here a situational play Calgary Flames off to a very impressive start [4:47] How about this? [4:48] Not only are they 3-0, they're 3-0 against the top three biggest contenders in the Western Conference, [4:55] and they're averaging four goals per game in the process. [4:58] They've now beaten Stanley Cup champions, Colorado Avalanche, [5:02] Western Conference runner-up, Edmonton Oilers, [5:06] and the biggest powerhouse of the conference the last couple years, [5:09] your Vegas Golden Knights Q. [5:11] So they're a top-five team, in my opinion, in the NHL right now, [5:15] and all of their off-season acquisitions look to be great fits. [5:19] Cadre, four points in three games. [5:21] And both Florida Panthers, who they got in these big off-season trades, [5:27] Wager and also Jonathan Huberdeau, already have three assists in three games. [5:31] But this is a bit of an emotional letdown for this team. [5:35] After those three big games, they have to face an Eastern Conference team, [5:39] the Buffalo Sabres, that you couldn't pay people to watch the last 10 years. [5:43] The problem is this isn't the same Buffalo Sabres team the last 10 years. [5:48] Don Granato, Buffalo's head coach, and Kevin Adams, the GM, [5:52] put together one of the most exciting young cores in all of hockey right now. [5:56] Buffalo 2-1, and they scored 11 goals in three games early part of the year. [6:01] against three other Stanley Cup contenders, Ottawa Senators, Florida Panthers, and Edmonton Oilers. [6:09] The Ford Group, one of the most talented groups in hockey, [6:13] but the defense is still filled with some young, inexperienced guys that are learning the NHL game. [6:19] They're giving up a ton of shots on net, which is really important. [6:23] Usually a harbinger to tell you bad things are going to happen, over 40 per game in that span. [6:28] and they have 41-year-old Craig Anderson playing goaltender for this one here. [6:35] I think this game is a preview into two of the top seven or eight offenses in the NHL this year, [6:42] and either one of them could put up five or six goals here on their own. [6:46] I'm going to predict something like a 6-5 game here at the most. [6:52] I mean, 5-4, something like that. [6:54] I think it's going to go over here by the end of the second, early third period. [6:58] Over six and a half goals, minus 120 here. [7:02] Calgary Flames, Buffalo Sabres, hidden gem.”
BUF 6, CGY 3 — Buffalo beat Calgary 6-3, a combined 9 goals that clears Over 6.5 (ESPN).
“the Clippers and the Lakers. [7:41] NBA action, the Clippers 0-0 on the season. [7:44] This is their first game. [7:45] The Lakers 0-1 as they drop to the Warriors earlier in the week. [7:48] BetOnline.net line for this one. [7:50] The Clippers minus 5.5 versus the Lake Show. [7:52] So break this one down for us, Lee. [7:54] Yeah, games not being played in the form. [7:57] Love the name. [7:58] They change these names all the time. [8:00] It's the Crypto.com Arena now. [8:02] Don't love the name, but we'll deal with it. [8:05] Return, Kawhi Leonard. [8:06] After two years, and they added John Wall. [8:11] Remember that name? [8:12] And a trade from Houston didn't play last year. [8:14] Looks like he's going to be star here because Jackson's going to be out with an injury. [8:19] But, you know, they got a nice one-two punch with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. [8:23] And it's going to be tough for the Lakers to deal with that. [8:26] So I think John Wall is going to pass the ball a bunch here. [8:30] Want to get everyone involved. [8:32] You know, watching the Lakers is an absolute disaster. [8:36] Westbrook starting, not going to work out here. [8:39] Now they have to guard some people. [8:41] The Clippers were the top three-point shooting team in the NBA last year. [8:46] uh luke canard um sharp sharpshooter i just don't think they have guys that can guard him there and [8:53] the clippers believe it or not also ranked 11th in scoring defense will be much better with kawaii [8:58] leonard coming back so lebron james wasn't his fault they lost their opening game 31 points [9:04] eight rebounds uh and also 14 assists russell westbrook played well they still lost the game [9:11] by 14 points. [9:13] So they got some real problems here Their bench is really weak They got a couple guys the Clippers do and Kawhi Leonard also Morris that are going to play on LeBron and just try to wear him out here [9:26] So I think this team is going to be really one of the top teams, the Clippers here. It's basically [9:33] the Lakers are the home team, but both teams play in this building. Five and a half points by the [9:40] end of the year this line might be 10 to 12 points here i'm gonna lay the five and a half points here [9:45] for the la clippers big easy win here over the la lakers on thursday night”
LAC 103, LAL 97 — LA Clippers beat the LA Lakers 103-97, a 6-point margin that covers Clippers -5.5 (ESPN).
“Muhammad Mikheyev, a.k.a. The Punisher, going up against Malcolm X Gordon. [11:14] The Punisher, he's 8-0. Malcolm X Gordon is 14-5. [11:17] BetOnline.net line for this one. Check this out. [11:20] Mikheyev, a.k.a. The Punisher, minus 1,100 versus Malcolm X Gordon. [11:24] But we're going to look at The Punisher to actually finish minus 200. [11:28] Break this one down for us, Lee. [11:29] Yeah, so Mikheyev, I actually saw him fight. [11:32] I went to UFC fight night in London back in March, [11:36] and he was the first fight out of the gate. [11:39] He's the second fight. [11:40] So his fight's going to start about 10.30 Eastern, 7.30 Pacific in the morning [11:45] on Saturday morning. [11:46] So don't buy the fights mid-afternoon. [11:51] Expect to see fights. [11:52] They'll be over by then. [11:53] So take note of that. [11:55] Mikheyev is 8-0. [11:56] He's only fought two fights in the UFC, but he fought over 40 fights as an amateur. [12:01] he's only 22 years old [12:03] I think he's going to be a kid [12:05] probably two and a half three years [12:06] that's going to be fighting for the championship [12:08] he has every single disciple you need to fight [12:13] he can punch and knock out people [12:16] he can wrestle [12:17] he can submit [12:18] he does it all in really good takedown defense [12:21] so he's going to be fighting a guy [12:23] and I'm not saying this guy is terrible [12:26] but Malcolm Gordon [12:28] is one of these guys that [12:30] Since he's come to the UFC, only fought four fights, two and two. [12:34] But both of the fighters, one, already out of the UFC. [12:38] The other, I don't know if they're even going to book him for another fight in the UFC. [12:42] So when he loses, he loses by punches, gets knocked out usually early and often, [12:49] first round usually, or gets choked out via submission. [12:53] That's what Mikheyev does best. [12:55] This kid is a superstar. [12:58] You got to tune in early, about 10.30 Eastern. [13:01] We're going to go here with a blowout special. [13:05] Muhammad Mikheyev here, the Punisher. [13:08] I think he's going to finish him early here. [13:10] It's not going to go to even the second or third round here. [13:13] Minus the 200, blowout city here over Malcolm X Gordon.”
Muhammad Mokaev submitted Malcolm Gordon via armbar in round 3 at UFC 280 on Oct 22, 2022; Mokaev to finish cashes (Wikipedia).
“The Arizona Cardinals the New Orleans Saints Both teams looking at a 2 record overall BetOnline line for this one The Cardinals minus 2 versus Saints Break this one down for us Lee [14:05] Okay, so there's a real big problem in Arizona. [14:08] And don't be surprised if both Kyler Murray gone at the end of the year. [14:14] And I think they're going to make a change in their coaching staff. [14:17] And I just don't see their coaches blasting until even the last three or four games. [14:24] So, play calling is atrocious. [14:28] Who goes for it? [14:29] Two times in a row, down 10 points in the second half. [14:32] All they need to do is kick field goals into the one possession game. [14:36] So, the decision to go for it both times on fourth down by Arizona against Seattle on Sunday, atrocious. [14:43] The play calling, worse than miserable. [14:47] Kyler Murray can't read defenses. [14:48] He just can't get under center or take the snap, take two steps back, [14:53] and fire the ball. [14:54] So he's just not reading defenses. [14:57] I know New Orleans lost at home against Cincinnati. [15:00] It was one play. [15:01] They allowed one big play, four minutes to go. [15:04] Otherwise, they dominated play. [15:06] They ran for 228 yards. [15:08] So you look at both different offenses and defenses here, [15:12] and I think New Orleans has the best offense, [15:15] and I believe it or not think they have the best defense here. [15:18] So this line, in my opinion, should be a pick-em here. [15:21] I know that DeAndre Hopkins is coming back, but Hollywood Brown is out here. [15:27] I mean, Arizona even picked up Robbie Anderson. [15:30] You've got problems, and you're picking up a problem child like Robbie Anderson here. [15:34] He is a loose cannon here. [15:36] We're going to go the wrong team favorite here. [15:40] We're going with New Orleans here on Thursday night, NFL football on Amazon to get the job done. [15:46] They went outright over Arizona, 23-20.”
ARI 42, NO 34 — Arizona beat New Orleans 42-34; Saints moneyline busts (ESPN).
“the st louis blues and the seattle kraken feel like we're picking on the [3:58] kraken early in the season the blues are 1-0 they've only played in one game so far the kraken [4:02] 1-2-1 one win two losses and an overtime loss bet online.net line for this one the blues money line [4:08] minus 135 versus the kraken break this one down for us yeah we talked about it the other day with [4:12] the Seattle Kraken. [4:14] It looks like goaltending might be the downfall of this group yet. [4:18] Again, here this year, as a team, they've given up 16 goals in four games, [4:23] and they gave up five goals in three of those games individually. [4:27] Goaltending tandem of Grubauer and also Drager, just not working out. [4:32] I think they might have to trade one of them away and I don know how they going to do it whether they give up some draft picks or some other players I mean combination of the goaltending and the defense just isn going to cut it [4:46] I also see another reason here to back the Blues. [4:50] So really physical possession-based type hockey team that I think they feed on groups like Seattle's defensive core. [5:00] They're the only team in the NHL to have played just one game so far, [5:03] and that game was all the way back on Saturday. [5:06] They've, you know, just – I mean, it's a team that's rock solid, [5:10] has no real weakness here. [5:13] I think they're a cup contender this year, [5:15] and they have all the motivation here in the world to come out strong, [5:18] especially with their first road appearance of the season. [5:21] Don't buy low yet on the Seattle Kraken. [5:24] They're going to get blown out here. [5:27] Seattle Blues, St. Louis Blues here, going to win this one, I think, 4-2, 5-2. [5:32] So blowout special number one, St. Louis Blues money line here over the Seattle Kraken.”
STL 4, SEA 3 — St. Louis Blues beat the Seattle Kraken 4-3 in overtime; Blues moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“ALCS game number one, Astros and the Yankees, [6:01] as the Yankees advance, knocking off the Guardians. [6:04] Here we go, betonline.net line for this one. [6:06] The Astros minus one and a half runs, plus 115 versus the Yankees. [6:10] Break this one down for us. [6:11] So Major League Baseball really didn't do the Yankees any favors at all. [6:17] So what happened was they won big game five against the Guardians yesterday afternoon. [6:21] And it's worth pointing out game five started at 4 p.m. local time, finished it around seven. [6:29] Then the Yankees had about two hours to celebrate. [6:32] And then they took off a little after nine o'clock. [6:36] So that means they didn't get in and get to their hotel rooms until like one or two in the morning at the earliest. [6:43] Game one is tonight. [6:46] And, you know, Eric Judge just didn't look like himself until the final game of the series. [6:51] Several players were hurt or banged up throughout the game, including Aaron Hicks. [6:56] So I just think that Justin Verlander didn't look so good in his first postseason start this year. [7:03] The Astros, though, won the game, but he gave up 10 hits and six runs in just four innings against the Mariners offense. [7:09] Really wasn't supposed to be high scoring this year. [7:12] I'm just not worried about him, though. [7:14] He only had a couple late regular season starts to return from injury. [7:19] and he's been lights out at home this season. [7:23] Above all else, he's only given up .6 homers per nine innings this year, [7:28] and that's how we know the Yankees like to roll. [7:31] That's the lowest, actually, of his career. [7:33] If there's anyone that can limit the Yankees' lineup power, [7:37] it's Justin Berlander. [7:39] Take the blowout here against a sluggish team in game number one, [7:43] Houston Astros, minus the one-and-a-half runs. [7:46] They need to win by two. [7:48] Plus 115. [7:50] Blowout special over the Yankees.”
HOU 4, NYY 2 — Houston Astros beat the New York Yankees 4-2 in ALCS Game 1, a 2-run margin that covers Astros -1.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. [9:58] LSU minus 1.5 versus seventh-ranked Mississippi. [10:02] How is this even possible, Lee? [10:04] Break this down for me. [10:05] Okay, so you're starting to figure it out. [10:07] And this is one of the gambler's greatest angles if you're looking to make money here. [10:15] And what it is is play on a team, an unranked team, as a favorite against a ranked team. [10:22] Over the last decade, returns over 60% in college football. [10:26] One of the greatest angles. [10:27] And here we go. [10:28] Doesn't happen that often. [10:30] You get one maybe every two or three weeks, but this is one of them. [10:33] And the reason LSU actually started off as a one-and-a-half-point underdog, [10:38] and it lasted like 30 minutes, and now is a one-and-a-half-point favorite, [10:42] I think they're actually going to close to two-and-a-half, [10:45] maybe even three-point favorite. [10:46] That's why I'm saying, and I'm giving this game now, get on it now, [10:50] is LSU is gaining confidence. [10:52] If you watch the Florida game, they ended up giving up a cheap touchdown, [10:57] and what happens? [10:58] They routed Florida. [11:00] They were the much better team. [11:01] Jaden Daniels bounced back from an uneven performance against Tennessee, [11:06] threw for 349 yards in the last game here against Florida, [11:10] and three touchdowns, even ran for three touchdowns in 44 yards. [11:14] So dual-threat quarterback that has confidence, [11:18] that has two really top-end receivers that will be playing here in the NFL. [11:23] Ole Miss' defense, here's another reason to go against them, showing crack. [11:28] So they started off the year, and they played Troy Hilden to 10, Central Arkansas 3, and they shut out Georgia Tech. [11:36] And people are thinking, oh, defense is better. [11:38] They then gave up 27 to Tulsa, only won the game by 8. [11:42] They gave up 19 to Kentucky, but let me tell you something. [11:45] In that game, Kentucky shot themselves in the foot, missing a couple field goals, a couple extra points. [11:52] They should have put up probably 30 points in that game. [11:55] And then Vanderbilt scored 28 and Auburn 34. [12:00] So I don't think that their cornerbacks are going to be able to cover these high-end, top-level wide receivers of LSU. [12:07] Lane Kiffin even used an onside kick with the lead in the third quarter to steal a possession just to keep his defense off the field. [12:17] I'm going to go with a coach, Brian Kelly, [12:19] who didn't panic after losing to Florida State opening day, [12:23] or Tennessee two weeks ago here. [12:26] This team's playing some really good football. [12:28] I think Ole Miss just a little overrated. [12:31] They should be rated probably ranked between the 15th and 20th. [12:35] LSU, 35-27 over Ole Miss. [12:39] Blowout special number three on Saturday.”
LSU 45, Ole Miss 20 — LSU beat No. 7 Ole Miss 45-20; LSU moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“The Memphis Grizzlies, young team, exciting team. [13:15] obviously led by John Morant. [13:17] New York Knicks always got hope for the New York Knicks. [13:20] We'll see how they do this upcoming season. [13:22] BetOnline.net line for this one. [13:24] The Grizzlies minus four and a half versus the Knicks. [13:26] Break this one down for us, Lee. [13:28] Okay, so what the Knicks did was big signing to bring in Jalen Brunson. [13:32] And I love this guy. [13:33] This guy is tough. [13:35] He will be the heart and soul of this team. [13:38] He's really good at organizing and setting up his players. [13:41] And if he needs him to be, he can also shoot and score. [13:45] So I think he's a missing piece [13:48] To get him in the playoffs [13:49] That's it [13:49] The East is just too too tough I think he going to make Julius Randle better And you know some people upset hey they didn get Donovan Mitchell But this is still going to be an improved team [14:01] They lost some pieces like Taj Gibson, Alec Burks, and New Orleans Noel. [14:06] But these guys are just filler. [14:09] And so I think this team is going to be much stronger, [14:12] but I think it's going to take time. [14:14] So they're going to be a team we might back early and often. [14:17] but I just don't see it here. [14:20] This Memphis team, not many new acquisitions here. [14:24] They did re-sign Tyus Jones. [14:26] The biggest thing is they signed Desmond Bain to a long-term contract. [14:30] Here's a guy that I think is just starting to tap his potential. [14:33] John Morant obviously was hurt late in the year, [14:36] and I think that hurt their chances. [14:38] But they are a team that can score, score, and score some more [14:42] and just don't think guys like Julius Randle play enough quality defense. [14:46] So both teams can rebound, but talk about scoring Memphis at an elite level. [14:53] They were finished second in the league in scoring offense last year [14:57] at almost 116 points a game, and surprisingly, [15:01] number one in the league in rebounding, over 49 rebounds a game here. [15:05] So Stephen Adams I think will control the glass here, [15:09] feed it off to those guys in transition here. [15:11] I think the line's low. [15:12] I think the Knicks will eventually be a good team and come together. [15:15] but takes a little time for chemistry, [15:18] especially with the preseason teams not playing their regulars enough here. [15:22] I like Memphis here, minus 4.5 over the New York Knicks here. [15:28] Level 2 lock. [15:29] Boom, level 2 lock right there.”
MEM 115, NY 112 — Memphis beat New York 115-112 in OT, a 3-point margin that falls short of Grizzlies -4.5; spread busts (ESPN).
“The Padres and the Phillies. [3:20] BetOnline.net line for this one. [3:22] The Padres minus 125 versus Philadelphia with the take back being plus 115 Break this one down for us Lee So I couldn believe it But coming into this postseason Zach Wheeler had not made a single postseason appearance in his entire career despite all the success he has had [3:41] Now he has two postseason starts under his belt, [3:45] and he has been phenomenal, as the Phillies could have hoped. [3:49] He's allowed just three runs and 12-and-a-third-inning pitch so far. [3:53] But if you go back to the matchup against the Braves, [3:56] We allowed three runs. [3:58] None of them ever should have happened. [3:59] Reese Hoskins misplayed the ball, and MLB ruled it as a single versus an error. [4:06] Clearly, in my mind, it was an error. [4:08] The Braves went ahead and put up two more runs on the board, [4:11] and Wheeler shut out drought. [4:13] This Phillies team is just on a roll right now, and that's been driving the boat. [4:19] On the other hand, San Diego Padres really got to the point here, [4:23] despite Hugh Darvish's performance in game two. [4:27] He really had to battle every single bat. [4:29] We had, if people remember, the overall on the strikeouts, [4:32] and he went over. [4:33] It was five and a half. [4:34] He went over seven, but he was struggling. [4:37] Took him 99 pitches to make it through the fifth inning. [4:40] His command was not where it needed to be, [4:43] and it led to two walks and three home runs in that game. [4:46] If the Dodgers just had one or two base runners on base at those points, [4:50] I think this series, you know, goes very differently. [4:54] Phillies continue to crush right-handed pitching so far in the playoffs, [4:59] and I think they're going to do it here. [5:01] The Padres' biggest weakness is their middle relievers right now, [5:04] and if Darvish has another game where he's forced out in the fourth or fifth inning, [5:10] San Diego could be in big-time trouble here. [5:13] Wrong team favored here. [5:15] We're going to go with the Philadelphia Phillies. [5:17] money line plus 115 over the San Diego Padres tonight in game one NLCS.”
0-2 — Phillies beat Padres 2-0 in NLCS Game 1, so the Philadelphia moneyline pick cashed (ESPN box score).
“Boston Bruins going up against Ottawa? [6:08] Boston on the season is 3-0, Ottawa 0-2. [6:11] BetOnline.net line for this one. [6:13] The Bruins minus 105 versus Ottawa. [6:15] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [6:15] Break it down. [6:16] Yes, so the Boston Bruins are off to a historically strong start right now. [6:20] They're one of just five teams in NHL history to score five-plus goals in every game [6:25] and win every matchup by two-plus goals in their first three games, [6:29] including a big win last night over my Florida Panthers. [6:33] The line is low because you're on back-to-back [6:36] and had to travel from Boston to Ottawa after the game for this matchup. [6:41] I'm not all too worried, though, about this travel situation here early in the season. [6:46] In the first few weeks of hockey, some of the most important in the season. [6:50] And this team is nowhere near as banged up or as fatigued as they might be in let say February or March when the season is 60 games in They facing an Ottawa team that just didn look good so far to start the season Only one player on the Senators has had multiple points in the first two games [7:10] And defensively, they're giving up 34 shots on goal per game with Cam Talbot, their number one goaltender, out with an injury. [7:18] And number two goalie, Anton Forsberg here. [7:21] Forsberg is a complete—I mean, this guy's a career backup. [7:25] That's just not a recipe for success. [7:27] This is Ottawa's home opener, but that doesn't seem to give them much of an edge in the past. [7:33] They're three and five in their last eight home openers, [7:36] and all three of the wins were against the lowly Toronto Maple Leafs. [7:40] This is a group of Senators that has had six new forwards come into the fold this year, [7:45] and we talked about how it would take some time to gel. [7:49] I think that continues tonight against a Bruins team that has maybe the best backup goalie in all of hockey, [7:55] and Jeremy Swayman. [7:57] We're 12-3 early in the hockey season, and this should make it 13-3. [8:03] This is another blowout incoming here, blowout special. [8:08] Boston Bruins money line here over the Ottawa Senators.”
5-7 — Senators beat Bruins 7-5 in Ottawa's home opener, so the Boston moneyline pick lost (ESPN box score).
“The Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers opening night. [8:53] The betonline.net line for this one, Boston minus two and a half versus Philadelphia. [8:58] Break this one down for us, Lee. [9:00] Okay, so looking at this matchup, the Celtics center, Robert Williams had a knee procedure done, [9:06] and he's going to be out for the start of the season. [9:10] Celtics, I think, need him to defend Joel Embiid here. [9:15] I think they're actually going to have to double team a lot, [9:17] and I think that's going to open up the lanes and shooting here for Maxie, Tobias Harris, [9:23] and James Harden. [9:25] That's right. [9:25] James Harden, from what I'm hearing, really worked hard in the offseason. [9:30] So not saying where he was three, four years ago, [9:32] but I think you're going to see him start off really strong. [9:36] So they also added P.J. Tucker from the Miami Heat. [9:39] So he's going to be able to guard Tatum or Jalen Brown. [9:44] The end of the year in the playoffs, he was just not 100%. [9:47] He should be ready to go. [9:49] And they also added DeAnthony Melton and Danielle House here. [9:53] These guys are going to provide a ton of guard depth here. [9:56] And that's just something they just did not have last year, [10:00] that bench strength to come out and play hard for 10, 12, 15 minutes. [10:07] So with Harden making a nice comeback, I think that's huge. [10:11] Boston added Malcolm Broad. [10:13] I don't know if that's the guy that's going to get them over the hump here. [10:17] A lot of times we've seen that these teams that go to the finals and lose, [10:21] They are in a funk the first month of the season you know with the NBA season going longer and longer and not as much time I think you going to see that And also remember the Celtics just destroyed the Sixers 135 in Philly the last time these two teams played [10:40] But the Sixers were 3-0 in the last three games in Boston here. [10:46] I think the Sixers are coming to play. [10:48] I think they win the game here. [10:50] You're getting two and a half points. [10:52] I'm going to put some nice money on them plus two and a half, [10:56] and I'm going to even sprinkle in some money line here. [10:58] We're going to go with the Philadelphia 76ers plus the two and a half over the Boston Celtics on opening night in the NBA. [11:08] Level two lock on a Tuesday.”
117-126 — Celtics beat 76ers 126-117 on opening night, a 9-point margin, so Philadelphia +2.5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“the Chargers and the Broncos. [7:35] The Chargers on the season, 3-2. [7:37] The Broncos, 2-3. [7:39] Betonline.net line for this one. [7:41] The Chargers minus 4 versus Denver. [7:43] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:44] I know Denver's two and three, but it feels like they're one and four, oh and five. [7:49] They've only scored six touchdowns all year. [7:52] To put it in perspective going into the weekend Seattle had scored 10 touchdowns Geno Smith totally outplayed Russell Wilson so far this year Looks like they made a bad decision [8:06] Did Denver acquiring him and giving him so much money [8:09] and giving up so many assets here. [8:12] Red zone, that's where they have really faltered here. [8:16] Worst in the NFL at 21.4 in the red zone here. [8:21] Play calling by Nathaniel Hackett. [8:23] Their head coach has been atrocious. [8:26] Now they're down Devontae Williams, Javonte Williams, [8:29] I think one of the best young running backs in the NFL. [8:31] Their offensive left tackle, blindside protector, Garrett Bowles, [8:35] he's done for the year also. [8:37] So I like what the Chargers are doing. [8:39] You know, they ended up losing. [8:40] They're starting left tackle where they found a kid in the draft, [8:44] Saylor, doing a nice job protecting the blind side for Justin Herbert. [8:49] You know, they lose Bosa for maybe a few more weeks. [8:51] You know, the rest of the guys are stepping up. [8:54] It used to be they would have injuries and, you know, [8:57] they're making excuses. [8:58] The team was falling apart. [8:59] Well, not this year. [9:00] We're going to go with the L.A. Superchargers. [9:03] We have them winning this game something like 26 to 20. [9:07] So we're going to go with a blowout special. [9:11] L.A. Chargers over the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football.”
19-16 — Chargers beat Broncos 19-16 in overtime on Monday Night Football, so the LA Chargers moneyline pick cashed (ESPN box score).
“Yankees and Guardians. [9:45] And we'll tell you all about that after we tell you about our good friends at Sleeper. [9:49] and right now Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today [9:52] with over 4 million plus users. [9:54] In any sport, you pick two or more players that you like, [9:57] you pick the over-under. [9:58] It's that simple. [9:59] You pick correctly, you can win anywhere from two times over 20 times [10:02] the amount of money you put in. [10:03] And on top of that, on the app, you can check out what your friends are doing, [10:06] you can join the contest that they're playing in, and play together. [10:09] It's got built-in group chat where you can see everything that's going on [10:12] at the same time. [10:14] So stop doing what you're doing, download Sleeper now, [10:16] play their over-under game, have fun with your friends, [10:18] and make a lot of money. [10:19] On your mobile device right now, [10:21] join the listener group at sleeper.com slash locked on bets. [10:24] Sleeper will automatically match your first deposit up to $100. [10:26] Again, that's sleeper.com slash locked on bets. [10:28] You'll get a $100 match on your first deposit. [10:31] Terms and conditions apply. [10:32] See Sleeper's terms of use for details. [10:36] Open it, open it, open it. [10:38] Lee has the key to the lock of the day. [10:42] All right, Lee, here we go. [10:42] Let's close things out. [10:43] Lock of the day. [10:44] Postseason baseball. [10:46] I love it. [10:46] Yankees and Guardians. [10:47] Here we go. [10:48] It's all knotted up at two. [10:49] Something's got to give in this one. [10:51] Someone's going to advance. [10:53] Right now, betonline.net line for this one. [10:55] The Yankees minus 155 versus the Guardians with the take back being plus 135. [10:59] Break this one down for us. [11:01] So you know me. [11:01] I don't shy away from the big games. [11:03] We're going to give you the big game five, the series between the Yankees and Cleveland. [11:09] Great matchup here between two teams, you know, just back and forth. [11:14] But the crazy thing about this is we're not going to see great pitchers. [11:17] I don't think, in this game. [11:20] So it's going to be Aaron Savali, 5-6 of the 492 ERA, [11:24] taking the hill for the Cleveland Guardians. [11:26] While you're looking at the ERA, you're thinking, 492, what are they doing here? [11:30] Taking on Jamison Tallon, 14-5, 391 ERA. [11:35] So the Guardians, they know how to pull out close games here. [11:43] The Yankees, when they win, they usually win. [11:45] It looks like they take the lead and then hold on to the lead. [11:47] but I like the way the Guardians have managed their bullpen. [11:52] It going to be all hands on deck and it looks like they going to have the stronger and also the more rested bullpen for this game here how the Yankees won well Garrett Cole he the guy that won both of [12:03] their games he was masterful um but they still strike out a lot they're dependent on home runs [12:11] here so uh I think that Cleveland uh to rally they realize that he's one of these guys uh when [12:18] He starts off great. [12:20] He's going to be really strong. [12:23] And, yeah, there's no Shane Bieber, but who knows? [12:25] Maybe Shane Bieber, they couldn't start him. [12:28] He comes in in the fifth or sixth inning. [12:30] So if he comes in, he's a guy that's certainly stronger than anything [12:34] that the Yankees have coming out of the bullpen. [12:37] And just think that they know how to manufacture runs. [12:40] And if you're just dependent on home runs like the Yankees, [12:44] that's not a real good strategy to winning a championship [12:46] or even winning division series here. [12:49] So, Yankees lineup hitting just 177 for the series. [12:54] They struck out 41 times and have scored 13 of their 15 runs [12:59] via the home run ball here. [13:01] So, we're going to take, believe it or not, and shock everyone, [13:04] the Cleveland Guardians plus 135 to take the New York Yankees [13:10] and advance to the ALCS.”
1-5 — ALDS Game 5 was rained out on Oct 17 and replayed Oct 18, when the Yankees beat the Guardians 5-1 to win the series, so Cleveland's moneyline pick lost (ESPN box score).
“Postseason baseball, the Dodgers and the Padres. [2:21] Series is knotted up at one. [2:23] Right now, they're headed back to San Diego. [2:25] They'll be playing in San Diego. [2:26] The Dodgers minus 120 versus the Padres with a take back plus 110. [2:30] Break this one down. [2:31] That's the betonline.net line for us. [2:33] Yeah, you know, we've already seen in this postseason how important every single run is for momentum. [2:40] And it's important going into the next matchup. [2:44] Atlanta won game two after a couple of late runs in game one And the Padres did the same thing the other night after giving up five runs early to L You can just tell how much different of a team the San Diego team is [3:00] and it looks like they just realized that they could finally put some runs up [3:04] on this L.A. team. [3:06] So now they're back home with Blake Snell on the mound [3:09] where they've been one of the best baseball teams. [3:12] Snell had an awful start to the season. [3:15] I mean, horrendous, but since then, been a really solid number three pitcher for them. [3:21] I just think the Padres team, which has had, you know, an emotional roller coaster this season [3:26] with the Tatis drama earlier in the year, it's finally settled in, playing some really good baseball, [3:34] and they've got L.A. in a great spot here to take the series lead. [3:38] The wrong team is favored. [3:40] I'm going with the San Diego Padres. [3:43] money line plus 110 over the near invincible LA Dodgers.”
2-1 — Padres beat Dodgers 2-1 in NLDS Game 3, so the Padres moneyline pick cashed (ESPN box score).
“We got Clemson and we got Florida State. [4:25] The Clemson Tigers 6-0 on the season. [4:28] Florida State, not too bad. [4:29] Sitting there at 4-2. [4:31] BetOnline.net line for this one. [4:33] The Clemson Tigers minus 3-1. [4:34] First, the Florida State Seminoles. [4:36] Break this one down for us, Lee. [4:37] So, you talk about from one year to the next. [4:40] what's the difference in teams? [4:43] And I think Florida State's improved, better coaching. [4:47] But here's the problem here. [4:50] They're going to go up against a team that is much better on the offensive line. [4:54] Last year the Clemson offensive line just wasn't any good. [4:58] It was a real weakness. [5:00] And D.J. Ugolini, he was awful. [5:02] I mean, he had thrown only nine touchdowns and had ten interceptions [5:06] and completed just 55% of his passes. [5:10] This year, different guy. [5:13] 14 touchdowns, just two interceptions, completing over 64% of his passes. [5:19] And once they get in the red zone, Will Shipley, his 5.9 yards per average per carry, [5:26] he just burrows into the end zone, scored eight touchdowns. [5:30] So it's important. [5:31] Last year they got in the red zone, and it was a disaster. [5:34] This year turnovers a lot of times last year have turned into touchdowns here Clemson won six straight in the rivalry Make it seven Blowout special Clemson big 37 over Florida State Boom There you go”
28-34 — Clemson beat Florida State 34-28, so the Clemson moneyline pick cashed (ESPN box score).
“Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks. [7:22] The battle of two, two, and three teams. [7:25] Don't really know what either team is all about right now, [7:27] but I know you're going to break it down. [7:28] BetOnline.net line for this one. [7:30] The Cardinals minus two on the road versus Seattle. [7:33] So break this one down for us, Lee. [7:34] What's your thoughts? [7:35] All right. [7:36] I normally wouldn't do this to you, make you have to watch two, two, and three teams. [7:40] But you know what? [7:41] There's a clear right side to this game. [7:44] And, hey, I know DeAndre Hopkins is still out with a suspension. [7:49] But Rondell Moore starting to kick it in the high gear. [7:52] And this Seattle defense is awful. [7:56] Giving up 45 points to the Lions, 39 to the Saints this past Sunday. [8:02] the Saints were without their starting quarterback [8:05] and their top three receivers [8:07] so I think Kyler Murray [8:09] is going to have a big game against a poor [8:11] defense struggles against [8:13] the top tier defenses but on the [8:15] road [8:16] Arizona Cardinals have been [8:19] absolute money we're talking about [8:21] how good have they been well only [8:23] 12-2 [8:24] the last 14 games on the road [8:27] so this is when they [8:29] I don't know why they can't do anything at home [8:31] but on the road one of the toughest teams to take out here Seattle picking up guys off the waiver wire and putting them on the active roster i mean this is an absolute joke here hey geno doing a nice [8:43] job here but uh not this sunday let's go with arizona here level two locked to end the week”
9-19 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 19-9, so Arizona -2 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“How about the Ottawa Senators and the Buffalo Sabres? [3:33] Excited that NHL action is back. [3:36] BetOnline.net line for this one. [3:37] The Senators minus 115 versus Sabres Break this one down for us I love what the officials have been doing right before they drop the puck When teams play their first game of the year they come welcome to the NHL 2022 season [3:53] Nice. [3:53] And they drop the puck. [3:54] They shoot them. Okay, let's kill each other. [3:57] Right. [3:58] Have fun. [4:00] I love opening nights, whether it's football, basketball, hockey, anything. [4:06] and even though these two teams have not done real well the last couple years i see something [4:13] here so i really think that the buffalo sabers might be the most underrated nhl team coming [4:21] into the season so um everyone thinks that they're going to finish like fifth um i think this team is [4:28] for real they do have some questions at goaltender 41 year old craig anderson in that but if you [4:34] take their 16-9-3 record from the beginning of March until the end of the year last year. [4:40] This team had one of the best records in hockey. [4:43] My favorite thing about the Sabres is that they're doing this rebuild the right way. [4:48] Buffalo, obviously, not a big three-agent destination spot unless it's football. [4:53] So this team has drafted or traded for guys like Dylan Cousins, Alex Tuck, and Paige Thompson. [5:00] And now they have the first overall pick from last year's draft on the big league roster here, Owen Power. [5:07] Love the name, Owen Power. [5:09] He is a massive defenseman, 6'6". [5:13] He's going to be able to pass like the best of them by the end of the season here. [5:18] Ottawa, on the other hand, comes in with some injuries. [5:21] Cam Talbot, their number one goaltender, out for a couple weeks to start the season. [5:25] So Anton Forsberg starts, and it's not that this guy has been impressive during his career. [5:35] He's just a career backup and played 102 career games, just doesn't get the job done. [5:42] The other issue is the changes up front. [5:46] Six of the Senators, 12 forwards in the season opener, have never put on an Ottawa jersey before. [5:52] So I just think it's going to take some time to get used to the new line mates here for this team. [5:58] I'm going to take the Sabres and will be a rocking building tonight at Key Bank Center in Buffalo. [6:06] Wrong team favorite, Buffalo Sabres. [6:09] Get it done. [6:09] Money line plus 105 versus the Ottawa Senators.”
4-1 — Buffalo beat Ottawa 4-1 on opening night, so the Sabres moneyline pick cashed (ESPN box score).
“Manna Boy Martinez going up against Brandon Killer B Davis. [6:42] Manna Boy Martinez is 9-3. [6:44] Killer B Davis is 14-9. [6:46] Betonline.net line for this one. [6:48] Manaboy Martinez, minus 150 versus Killer B. Davis, break this one down for us. [6:53] Okay, so this kid, man, he's 26 years old, and I think he's only going to get better. [6:59] He had a tough fight. [7:00] He lost a unanimous decision against a pretty darn good fighter, Ronnie Lawrence, [7:04] his last fight, and just felt that it wasn't his day, but he's going to learn from it. [7:10] Really good stand-up. [7:11] He has some major power. [7:13] When you look at two fighters, sometimes you've got to say, do any of these two fighters do anything special? [7:19] And I think his stand is that good So his opponent here Brandon Davis just 14 and nine Uh here a guy 32 years old jumped around I mean he was back in the UFC and uh he was all the way back in [7:36] 2018 was there for, I think it was six fights. Didn't do the job. They released him. He wins [7:43] four fights here, uh, on, uh, the junior circuit and was not beating impressive guys. The first [7:50] Guy beat was 4-0, next 5-3, then 24-29 and 24-11. [7:56] You get guys that have never been up to the UFC. [7:59] They got records like that. [8:00] Just kind of tells you something. [8:01] Then he lost in the first round in two minutes, just got battered, [8:06] stopped by knees and punches. [8:08] And I do think Manna has better stand-up. [8:10] Unless we see here something different that I haven't seen, [8:14] unless Davis can take him down and hold him down, [8:19] I don't think he has a chance here. [8:21] We're going to go with a blowout special here in the UFC. [8:26] One of the big fights on the undercard on Saturday starts at four o'clock. [8:31] This fight should go about six, six 30. [8:33] Mana, mana boy. [8:35] Martinez moves to 10 and three with an easy win. [8:40] Blowout special over.”
At UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo on Oct 15, 2022, Leomana Martinez (the fighter this pick's structured fields name as "Manaboy Martinez," an ASR mis-transcription) defeated Brandon "Killer B" Davis by split decision, so the Martinez moneyline pick cashed (Wikipedia event card; ESPN fighter pages were unreachable).
“The Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. [9:32] This one's going to be a fantastic game. [9:34] Both teams are 4-1 on the season. [9:36] Something's got to give here. [9:37] BetOnline.net line for this one. [9:39] The Bills minus two and a half versus the Chiefs. [9:42] Break this one down for us, Lee. [9:43] I mean, everyone's waiting for this game. [9:46] There's some really good games on the card, [9:48] but this is the one that I've been waiting for. [9:51] Last year's game, one of the greatest games I've ever seen in the NFL. [9:55] Is it in your top ten? [9:56] Oh, yeah, it's got to be, no doubt. [9:58] It made rules change, right? [10:00] It made rules change in the NFL. [10:02] Right, right. [10:03] So a lot of people forget that Buffalo actually won the regular season game [10:08] last year, and they won it in Kansas City. [10:12] They made some mistakes. [10:14] They were really depleted in the secondary last year. [10:16] They were without their top cornerback. [10:18] But they're healthy again on defense. [10:21] Their front seven has really elevated. [10:24] I think they're top five, front seven. [10:26] That's the biggest change from last year. [10:28] Their offense, fewest punts in the league. [10:32] They're already offenses, I think, in peak form here. [10:35] They're 7-2-2 against the spread the last 11 games here. [10:39] I don't think Kansas City's the same on offense. [10:40] I mean, numbers look pretty good. [10:42] They're almost the same with Buffalo. [10:44] But remember, Buffalo had to play Miami in Miami on a day where it was in the mid-90s. [10:49] Had to play another game against Baltimore. [10:51] The weather was horrific. [10:53] Just think that their receivers are so much better against the Kansas City defensive back. [10:59] So last week, the Raiders, we saw what they did, what Adams did against them. [11:04] Buffalo has two guys in that range So they got another guy Isaiah McKenzie very underrated Special teams are good Kansas City we saw what kind of problems they got on special teams [11:16] or kicker buckner couldn't play. [11:18] They were forced to go for a couple fourth downs. [11:20] And if he doesn't come back or if he's not 100%, [11:24] that could factor into this game here. [11:27] So I think the Bills are ready for this game here. [11:30] I think they're stronger on offense, much stronger on defense. [11:33] And I think I also give them the edge in special teams. [11:36] This is their circle game. [11:38] Maybe the circle game of almost every player in that team's career. [11:43] They get it done. [11:44] They win by two touchdowns. [11:45] Buffalo 42-28 over Kansas City.”
24-20 — Bills beat Chiefs 24-20, so the Bills moneyline pick cashed (ESPN box score).
“We're going to look at San Diego Padres pitcher Hugh Darvish. [2:48] The Dodgers lead this series right now 1-0. [2:51] BetOnline.net live for this one. [2:53] We're going to go U Darvish over five and a half strikeouts plus 115. [2:57] Break this one down for us, Lee. [2:58] Yeah, U Darvish might have finally resolved his postseason woes [3:02] with a fantastic start in the NL wildcard game in New York. [3:07] He had a 518 ERA in his first seven career postseason appearances And people I think wondered if he ever be the ace He was hyped up when he came to the United States But things just feel a little bit different for him right now [3:22] He's going on the road and in intense situations with crowds chanting his name. [3:29] And what is he doing? [3:31] Shutting down offenses. [3:33] Dating back to the regular season, he's won five straight road appearances, [3:37] including one in L.A. against these Dodgers here. [3:41] and he's racking up strikeouts with the best of them against L.A. specifically. [3:47] He was dominant this season in 25 innings. [3:50] He put up 31 strikeouts with just a .252 ERA, [3:55] and he went over five strikeouts in three of the four matchups head-to-head. [3:59] I wasn't all that impressed by the Dodgers' offense after a quick outburst last night, [4:04] but they did force San Diego to go to their bullpen early, [4:08] And I think Bob Melvin, the Padres manager, is going to have to rely on Darvish for a longer stretch tonight. [4:15] And those strikeouts should come early and often here. [4:19] You, Darvish, over five and a half strikeouts plus 115 for the San Diego Padres tonight.”
5-3 — Yu Darvish struck out 7 over 5 innings (3 ER) as the Padres beat the Dodgers 5-3 in NLDS Game 2, clearing his 5.5-strikeout over (ESPN box score). (Darvish 5.0 IP, 7 K, 3 ER)
“the Edmonton Oilers and the Vancouver Canucks. [4:59] Again, season opener for these two. [5:02] BetOnline.net line for it. [5:03] The Oilers versus Vancouver over six and a half goals plus 100. [5:07] Break this one down for us, Lee. [5:09] Yeah, so I am so pumped for the start of the regular season for hockey. [5:15] I think it's going to be open, [5:17] and I think we're going to see a lot of teams with a lot of firepower. [5:21] And these are two of them. [5:23] Both the Oilers and the Canucks had disappointing seasons last year [5:26] by their standards. [5:27] But the offenses, at least in the second half, I thought did their part. [5:32] Connor McDavid, yet another MVP here, front runner this season. [5:36] And the Canucks locked up guys like JT Miller to secure that forward group. [5:42] You don't always know what you're going to get early in the season with teams, [5:45] especially when they make offseason changes. [5:47] But both of these teams are familiar with each other. [5:51] The coaches are both guys to love to push the higher-paced tempo games. [5:57] And a team like Edmonton loves these high-scoring games. [6:01] You'll remember they combined with the Colorado Avalanche to score 33 goals [6:06] in four games in the postseason last year when scoring is usually tougher to come by. [6:11] I'm also worried about the Edmonton defense here. [6:14] So they didn't upgrade their goaltending at all. [6:18] Jack Campbell comes over from Toronto. [6:21] I just don't think he's trustworthy at all. [6:23] I think you see some juice on the top lines from both teams here and probably a 3 score early to mid period And I think we going to see overtime or a 5 game here either way [6:39] Stay up late for this one. [6:41] It's going way over here. [6:43] Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks, over 6.5 goals, plus 100.”
3-5 — Oilers beat Canucks 5-3 in the season opener, a combined 8 goals, clearing the 6.5-goal over (ESPN box score).
“Two undefeated teams here, Michigan and Penn State. [9:04] Michigan 6-0, Penn State 5-0. [9:07] Something has got to give. [9:09] BetOnline.net line for this one, Lee. [9:11] Michigan minus 7 versus Penn State. [9:13] Break this one down for us. [9:14] So last year's game, Michigan was favored by two points. [9:18] and the game was at Penn State and Happy Valley was a wide out. [9:23] This wide out seems like Penn State loses more than they win, [9:26] but absolutely even game. [9:29] Back and forth, any team could have won. [9:30] Michigan gets the game-winning touchdown with 3.29 left, [9:34] escapes Happy Valley with a 21-17 win. [9:38] Penn State is off of a bye week before this game. [9:41] They can rest up in game plan. [9:43] I think it their circle game Michigan running back Blake Quorum incredible In fact I think these should be considered the Heisman Trophy at least in the top three 11 touchdowns 6 yards per carry [9:55] But Penn State's running backs, Nicholas Singleton and Etron Allen, [10:01] Ketron Allen are a combined 770 yards, few less touchdowns, [10:07] eight touchdowns, but they're averaging more, 6.4 yards per carry. [10:12] So I just think that you're looking at two teams pretty equal, [10:16] and maybe Penn State has a better quarterback. [10:19] I mean, Sean Clifford, he did go into the big house two years ago, [10:22] won 27-17, lots of experience, nine touchdowns, just 200 receptions. [10:28] He's only been sacked four times on the entire season, [10:32] and five receivers average over 11 yards per catch here. [10:36] I think the wrong team's favored. [10:38] I think Penn State goes in to the big house and knocks off Michigan 23-20. [10:45] Level 2 lock for hump day. [10:48] I like Penn State 23-20 over Michigan.”
17-41 — Michigan beat Penn State 41-17, so Penn State's moneyline pick lost outright (ESPN box score).
“we're going to focus in on Manny Machado of the Padres and when he's at the bat. [2:56] Here we go. [2:57] BetOnline.net line for this one. [2:59] Manny Machado to get a hit. [3:01] Minus 165 versus the Dodgers. [3:03] Seems pretty reasonable to me, Lee. [3:04] Break this one down. [3:05] Yeah, you know what? [3:06] I don't expect many Padres players to have success against Julio Urias tonight. [3:11] But if there's one guy that can carry his lineup to a win, it's Machado. [3:15] Machado is one of six Padres players to have at least 15 at bats against Uriah in his career and he 10 for 27 which is good for a batting average against him And four of those 10 hits have been home runs [3:29] And he's slugging at a rate of 815% off Urias. [3:34] So it's not like it's some kind of fluke here. [3:38] You know, his last 10 games, he's batting .368 against Southpaws. [3:43] Urias throws the fastball almost 48% of the time as well. [3:48] and that's Machado's favorite pitch. [3:50] Don't be surprised if this is the best pitcher-hitter matchup [3:54] of the night across postseason. [3:56] I think Manny Machado gets it done here. [3:58] Manny Machado, the San Diego Padres, to record it, minus 165, hidden gem.”
3-5 — Manny Machado went 1-for-4 with a single (no home run) as the Dodgers beat the Padres 5-3 in NLDS Game 1, so his -165 to-record-a-hit prop cashed (ESPN box score). (Machado 1-for-4, 0 HR)
“Yeah, so Cal Quantrill for Cleveland. [4:43] I mean, boy, is he good. [4:46] And there's not much difference between his splits at home and at home. [4:50] Only actually .25% higher as far as ERA. [4:55] So he's only pitched 74 innings away from Cleveland this year. [4:59] More importantly, though, it's not just Quantrill who's been good at home. [5:03] He's been lights out the entire second half of the season. [5:07] 9-0 since the All-Star break with a .294 ERA in almost 85 innings. [5:13] You know who hasn't been good, though, in the second half? Garrett Cole. 4-12, second half ERA. He ranks 50th. That's 50th, 5-0, not 5th, among 66 qualifying pitchers in all of postseason right now that are pitching. [5:32] He has given up more home runs, 16, than any other pitcher in baseball since the second half started. [5:39] This is not your old Garrett Cole. [5:41] Sure, he has playoff experience, but it hasn't been very good. [5:46] He's given up nine home runs in the last 34 innings of postseason baseball, [5:50] and he has an ERA of almost four in the last six postseason starts. [5:56] The strikeouts are there, but remember, the Cleveland lineup does not strike out, [6:00] So he's probably also not going to get to his typical 9-10 strikeout performance here. [6:07] Most importantly, though, let's look at some things going on behind the scenes. [6:11] Chapman, great pitcher, used to be for the Yankees, will miss the postseason for missing a workout here. [6:20] So not on the postseason roster. [6:22] Clay Holmes has been awful second half of the season. [6:25] All of a sudden, Yankees don't have a closer for the playoffs. [6:28] They could go with either Peralta or also Efrost, but these guys have only a seven combined saves all season. [6:37] To add to that, the Guardians have the best bullpen in all of baseball right now. [6:42] Emmanuel Klaes might be the best reliever in all of baseball No one even knows who he is So if the Guardians can sneak into an early lead here it wouldn even surprise me if they win this game here outright [6:54] I think it's going to be a one- or two-run game. [6:57] So for that reason, I'm taking the one-and-a-half runs. [6:59] I'm also going to sprinkle some on the money line. [7:03] Cleveland Guardians, plus one-and-a-half runs, minus 125.”
1-4 — Yankees beat Guardians 4-1 in ALDS Game 1, a 3-run margin, so Cleveland +1.5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“Oklahoma Sooners and the Kansas Jayhawks. [7:53] And when you say those two names at first, you think one thing, [7:56] but then you go back and you look at the records [7:58] and you look at who's been playing well this season, [8:00] you realize it's two different squads than what you would expect. [8:03] The Sooners, 3-3 overall, 0-3 in Big 12 play. [8:07] The Jayhawks, 5-1 overall and 2-1 in conference play. [8:12] BetOnline.net line for this one. [8:14] The Sooners minus 7.5 versus the Jayhawks. [8:17] Break this one down for us, Lee. [8:18] All right, so this Kansas team, that game last week against TCU could have gone either way. [8:24] I mean, the stats were almost identical. [8:27] Actually, Kansas outgained TCU by almost 100 yards. [8:31] They did miss a field goal, but like sacks, time of possession, [8:35] everything was almost exactly the same. [8:37] Just the breaks didn't go their way. [8:39] Nothing to be embarrassed about. [8:40] This TCU team is really good. [8:42] They have explosive players. [8:44] They put up almost 500 yards in the first half against Oklahoma when they boat raced them. [8:49] So I think both teams are very similar. [8:52] Now we're going to move on to Oklahoma. [8:55] Brent Venables. [8:56] So a lot of people thought when it started off, this is a great hire. [8:59] You know, we might have a Barry Switzer type hire. [9:02] This guy might be here 15, 20 years. [9:04] They roll out to a 3-0 record. [9:06] Everything looks great. [9:07] Even their defense looks improved. [9:08] Dylan Gabriel, quarterback from Central Florida, moves over, high-powered offense. [9:13] Then what happens? [9:14] The defense starts caving in. [9:17] And some people think, well, you know, we're not sure what's going on here. [9:22] Maybe it's just one game. [9:23] No, they have a real problem, talent problem. [9:27] And most people don't even realize this. [9:30] The defensive coordinator, Ted Roof, I mean, this guy has had a lot of stops. [9:35] Okay, so let's start. [9:36] He was the GA at Alabama all the way back in 87 and 88. [9:41] When he started becoming a coordinator, 96, UMass. [9:46] Another defensive coordinator position, three years, Georgia Tech. [9:50] Then Duke. [9:52] Then ends up becoming defensive coordinator, Minnesota. [9:56] Moves on to Central Florida. [9:58] Georgia Tech again for five years, and that's where people knew he did the best work. [10:03] Then on to App State and Vanderbilt and now Oklahoma The one common denominator he had offenses that only get off usually in the 55 to 65 play rate Now he got an offense that getting off plays real quick at 80 to 90 plays a game just not used to it [10:24] Not used to being able to structure a defense that can last on the field that long. [10:30] So they have a talent problem. [10:32] Now their quarterback, Dylan Gabriel, he missed the last game. [10:35] I have a good feeling it's not playing in this game here. [10:38] Kansas, trust me, one loss is not going to get them down. [10:42] I think they're going to boat race Oklahoma, win the game outright, [10:45] and you're getting seven and a half points here.”
42-52 — Oklahoma beat Kansas 52-42, a 10-point win, so Kansas +7.5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“How about the Houston Astros to win the AL pennant? [3:27] They're not playing this weekend, but they'll be playing soon enough. [3:30] BetOnline.net line for this one. [3:31] The Astros to win the AL pennant plus 175. [3:34] Break this one down for us, Lee. [3:35] So I've been saying this, Q, all year long. [3:38] The Houston Astros have a better chance of winning the American League [3:42] than the LA Dodgers do of winning the National League. [3:45] I looking up and down the AL postseason bracket and there not a single team even close to Houston in terms of the pitching rotation offensive consistency or postseason success in recent years Justin Verlander looks like he fully back from his injury after five shutout in the innings here in his last start Jordan Alvarez he has been rested for the postseason for the [4:13] majority of the last two weeks. And Yankees fans might want to argue that Aaron Judge can lead them [4:19] past Houston to the World Series. But I have no faith here in the next eight guys in that lineup [4:25] after him. It's easy to forget [4:27] also that Houston, [4:28] this team made it to the World Series last year. [4:31] A lot of people forget that. They got [4:33] even better. Berlander [4:35] wasn't in there last year. McCullers, [4:37] he was hurt. In fact, [4:39] Zach Greinke, he was the number [4:41] one guy for much of the season. [4:43] They are vastly improved at catcher [4:45] in first base, and now they know they can [4:47] make these long postseason runs [4:49] without any trash can or [4:51] sign-feeling scandals [4:53] here. This Astros team [4:55] is going to represent the American League in the World Series this year. [4:59] Book it, Danu. [5:00] I like the Houston Astros to win the American League pennant plus 175.”
Houston swept the New York Yankees 4-0 in the 2022 ALCS to win the American League pennant (ESPN Astros 2022 postseason schedule).
“San Jose State versus UNLV, little Mountain West action going on. [6:08] San Jose State, 3-1. [6:10] UNLV's 4-1, got enough to a great start. [6:12] This game is being played in San Jose. [6:14] BetOnline.net line for this one. [6:15] The Spartans minus six versus the Rebels. [6:18] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:19] So it's tonight. [6:20] Got some action tonight. [6:22] get you started, hopefully put a nice win in your column, [6:25] headed into the weekend. [6:26] That's always a good feeling here. [6:28] And there's two things that I really like the San Jose State team. [6:32] Their quarterback, Chevin Cordero, comes over from Hawaii. [6:36] He really seems to fit well into this system. [6:39] No interceptions in his 135 attempts this year. [6:43] Their defense underrated. [6:45] They've held 23 of the last 36 teams under 18 points. [6:48] In fact, they're averaging giving up just 15.7 points per game. [6:53] They used to be consistently in the bottom 15, bottom 20. [6:57] They're almost in the top 20. [6:59] They're at number 23 in total defense out of 131 teams. [7:04] And UNLV, Doug Brumfeld, impressive. [7:08] But they've only faced one good defense. [7:10] That was Cal. [7:11] And they only scored 14 points in that game and had 309 total yards here. [7:16] Spartans, they seem to own UNLV. [7:18] 8-2 against the spread the last 10. [7:20] Make it 9-2. [7:22] San Jose State by double digits. [7:24] 31-20 over UNLV.”
SJSU 40, UNLV 7 — San Jose State beat UNLV 40-7 on October 7, 2022, behind Chevan Cordeiro; the Spartans -6 cover by 33 points (ESPN scoreboard).
“the philadelphia flyers and we're [9:26] going to talk about regular season points bet online.net line for this one the philadelphia [9:31] of Flyers under 74.5 regular season points, minus 110. [9:35] Break this one down for us, Lee. [9:37] So this Flyers team was supposed to be a fringe playoff team last year. [9:42] They still, even though they were thought to be a possible playoff team, [9:47] had one of the most disappointing seasons I have ever seen. [9:51] They made a big trade last summer, pick up Ryan Ellis as their number one defenseman, [9:57] and didn't play a single minute of hockey. [9:59] Then they made a big free agency run to Johnny Goudreau, Philadelphia native. [10:04] Well, he ends up signing with Columbus. [10:06] They trade away their team captain and legendary flyer, Claude Goureux, last spring. [10:12] Now, Sean Couture, their number one center, he's out long-term with a herniated disc [10:18] and probably won't even play this year. [10:20] The organization is just going in the wrong direction. [10:24] They mistreated players last year, like Keith Yandel. [10:27] They benched him. [10:28] We only had a few games to go before breaking the NHL's Ironman streak. [10:33] And now they brought in the least player-friendly maybe coach in the NHL as far as the entire history, John Tortorella. [10:42] Tortorella did some good things in his career, but this guy is not meant here for a rebuilding program with little or no talent, especially in goal. [10:51] Carter Hart, their goalie, was statistically part of the worst goaltending duo in hockey. [10:58] Last year had a 9.05 save percentage. [11:01] After January was down even worse to near 8.80. [11:05] They didn't do a single thing to improve this goalie group either. [11:10] There's also the Metro Division going to be top-heavy this year with Carolina, Rangers, Penguins, [11:16] probably running away with it. [11:18] But those three teams are going to have to beat up on someone. [11:22] And I think it's going to be the Philadelphia Flyers. [11:24] Take the under 74 and a half points here for the season on the Philadelphia Flyers. [11:31] Level three lock.”
Philadelphia finished the 2022-23 season with 75 regular-season points (31-38-13), above the 74.5-point under (Wikipedia, 2022-23 Philadelphia Flyers season). (Flyers finished 75 points (31-38-13))
“Excited about this. [12:10] This is an NFL game that looks really good. [12:12] This is the WTF the wrong team favorite Looks great on paper The LA Rams versus the Dallas Cowboys The Rams are 2 The Cowboys are 3 Head coach Mike McCarthy of the Cowboys said [12:23] we ain't nobody's underdog. [12:25] Well, betonline.net line says you are. [12:28] Rams minus 4.5 to the Dallas Cowboys. [12:30] Break this one down, Lee. [12:31] All right, so I'm really impressed with Dallas. [12:34] That defense is really coming to play. [12:37] They're making plays on the ball. [12:38] The defensive secondary, front seven, [12:41] getting after the quarterback, playing with an edge, [12:45] and the offense are running the football now. [12:48] You know, I don't think there's a quarterback controversy. [12:50] I think when Dak comes back, he'll immediately start, [12:53] and they'll be even better. [12:55] So give this team and the coaches credit. [12:58] I was doubting them when the injury occurred. [13:01] I thought that, you know, they'd be lucky to go 500, [13:04] but I think they're going to keep it going. [13:05] For the Rams, major problems. [13:08] Offensive line, lost three out of five starters. [13:10] Not the same. [13:11] Matthew Stafford, four touchdowns and six interceptions on the year. [13:16] We know about his arm trouble. [13:18] He had off-season arthroscopic surgery. [13:21] They tried to hide it as long as they could. [13:24] Now he can't even get away from the rush on top of his arm problems. [13:28] They have no number two or number three receiver, and they're running backs. [13:32] I mean, Henderson is okay, nice backup. [13:35] But, you know, Cam Akers looks like he's lost maybe a step or two. [13:40] Don't be surprised they let him go. [13:41] midseason or the end of the season. [13:44] I think Dallas is the right [13:45] side here. [13:47] Wrong team favorite. We're going with the [13:49] Dallas Cowboys straight [13:51] up over the LA Rams on Sunday.”
LAR 10, DAL 22 — Cowboys beat the Rams 22-10 on October 9, 2022; Dallas wins outright, covering the moneyline (ESPN scoreboard).
“Duke versus Georgia Tech [3:16] Duke 4-1 on the season. Georgia Tech 2-3 [3:19] already fired their coach. They got some moving and shaking going on [3:24] with Georgia Tech. BetOnline.net line for this one. Duke minus 3 [3:27] versus Georgia Tech. Break this one down for us, Lee. [3:30] All right. [3:31] So two teams, it looks like, in my opinion, going in completely different directions. [3:37] You know, with Cutcliffe finally being, well, I think he was told he retired, [3:43] but I think people know what was going on. [3:46] They just were not recruiting and losing players. [3:50] I mean, losing a lot of players to some pretty good teams. [3:54] People thought, oh, okay, this is going to be a really down season this year. [3:58] But, you know, outside of their loss at Kansas, which doesn't look so bad now, [4:03] this is a team on the rise. [4:05] Their offense has been balanced, only two turnovers all year in five games. [4:10] This could be an eight-win team if they stay healthy and focused here. [4:14] Georgia Tech ran the ball two-thirds of the time last week versus Pittsburgh. [4:18] That was a recipe for success. [4:20] They finally got a win versus Division I team. [4:23] But Duke quarterback Riley Leonard, way better here than Jeff Sims here. [4:28] And Georgia Tech, 6-18 against the spread the last 24 games here. [4:34] I think the line's too low here. [4:36] It doesn't matter. [4:36] Wherever these two teams play, it's only going to be about 20,000, 25,000 fans. [4:41] I like Duke here. [4:42] 38-28 here. [4:44] Hidden gem. [4:45] Boom.”
GT 23, DUKE 20 — Georgia Tech beat Duke 23-20 in overtime on October 8, 2022; Duke -3 busts on an outright loss (ESPN scoreboard).
“How about the Tennessee Titans and the Washington Commanders? [5:08] The Titans starting to turn things around two and two on the season. [5:11] The Commanders, well, they're one and three. [5:13] BetOnline.net line for this one. [5:14] The Titans minus two and a half versus the Commanders. [5:17] That's a close one. [5:17] Break this one down for us, Lee. [5:19] Yeah, and the public is going to be all over Tennessee. [5:21] They're like, oh, all they need to do is pretty much win the game by three or more. [5:25] I'm all over it. [5:26] But I think this is a trap game. [5:28] So Washington totaled only 18 points the last two games. [5:32] And they have scored, though, 28 and 27 the first two weeks. [5:37] And I think their offense has talent on it. [5:39] I think they've got some really good receivers. [5:42] Titans defense gives up an average of 6.3 yards per play. [5:47] That's more than any other team except for Detroit and Seattle. [5:51] Most people identified both of those two teams as bad defenses here. [5:56] Remember Carson Wentz was with a team in Indianapolis [5:59] that faced the Titans twice last year. [6:03] They did not win both games, but maybe third time's a charm here. [6:07] So I think he's got really good weapons here. [6:09] They were just off last week and I thought Dallas played a really good game defensively had a good game plan So at home I think they going to get it done here I think they going to score some points here and I think Tennessee they just a total enigma [6:23] Whenever you think that they've got it back together, they have problems. [6:27] And both quarterbacks get a lot of fumbles in the pocket. [6:31] So as long as those even out and Carson Wentz doesn't blow up like he did last week, [6:36] I think Washington's the right side here. [6:38] Wrong team favorite. [6:40] I'm going with not the Redskins, the Commanders over the Tennessee Titans, 30-20.”
TEN 21, WSH 17 — Titans beat the Commanders 21-17 on October 9, 2022 (this Titans-Commanders game was actually played the following Sunday, not Oct 6); Washington moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“The New Orleans Saints versus Seattle Seahawks. [7:34] The Saints are one and three. [7:36] Seattle's 2-2. [7:37] Geno Smith, he's doing some pretty big things so far in the early season. [7:40] BetOnline.net line for this one. [7:42] The Saints minus 5.5 versus Seahawks. [7:44] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:45] Okay, we're going to talk about reading into a line. [7:49] And this line opened up at 3.5 to 4 point range. [7:52] And I think it's going to end up at 6. [7:55] It's at 5.5 right now. [7:57] 6 is the key number. [7:58] What are the four key numbers in the NFL? [8:00] 3, 4, 6, and 7. [8:02] So almost 50% of the games fall in those four numbers. [8:06] So you want to make sure if you're interested in betting a favorite, [8:10] you want to make sure you want to bet it before it gets to a key number. [8:13] If you're betting an underdog, hey, a lot of times if you're above that number, [8:17] bet it now. [8:19] Sometimes you can wait until game time. [8:21] And game time, maybe 5, 10, 15 minutes before game time, [8:25] and that number pops up. [8:26] So it's really important to shop numbers. [8:28] Numbers can make a big difference in the NFL. [8:30] and also reading into a line. [8:33] Why did the line open up 3.5 to 4? [8:35] Why is it a 5.5 right now? [8:37] Well, the oddsmakers are pretty good. [8:39] And you read the injury reports, and almost every guy is questionable that's injured now. [8:43] Very few probables, very few doubtfuls, almost no out. [8:48] So what are they doing when they're telling you as far as reading into the injury report? [8:53] Well, you look at the four key players for New Orleans on their offense, [8:56] and I'm talking about Jameis Winston, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, [9:00] and offensive tackle, Andrews Peet. [9:03] They're telling you three or four are going to be playing, maybe all four. [9:06] So I'm reading into the line here, and I'm watching also Geno Smith. [9:13] He has been a money-making machine as an underdog, [9:16] and now he's got to step way up. [9:19] Detroit, worst defense in the NFL. [9:22] Now he got to play defense He got to be really mad They know that they got to come to play here This is a must game here And the Seahawks quite frankly are not a good defensive team [9:35] They actually are sitting here 2-2 because of Geno Smith here. [9:40] And just think that, you know, you talk about takeaways right now. [9:44] Look at the Saints, minus 7. [9:46] Also the most penalized yards here in the league. [9:49] having to play so many different guys and different quarterbacks, [9:53] that's a problem here. [9:54] So the return of the key starters here and having that firepower, [9:58] playing at home here, [10:00] I think this is the game where Geno Smith blows up here. [10:03] And we're going to say, yeah, that's the Geno Smith we know and love here. [10:07] I'm laying the five and a half. [10:08] I like the Saints, 27-20. [10:10] Boom, 27-20, says Lee Sterling right there. [10:13] The Saints versus Seahawks, lock of the day.”
NO 39, SEA 32 — Saints beat the Seahawks 39-32 on October 9, 2022; New Orleans -5.5 covers on a 7-point margin (ESPN scoreboard).
“We're going to turn our attention to the NHL future play here, [3:09] the Tampa Bay Lightning. [3:11] BetOnline.net line for this one. [3:13] Tampa Bay Lightning plus 650 to win the Eastern Conference. [3:16] Break this one down for us, Lee. [3:18] Okay, so Jack is deadly. [3:21] deadly on his future plays in hockey. [3:24] The first two years that he's been with me, [3:27] I think he's hit almost 80% of his future plays, [3:31] and this is one that he loves. [3:33] So I concur with him. [3:35] I know these two teams, especially three teams that he's talking about [3:40] that have the best chance of winning the Eastern Conference so well and this is his reason So when we look at the Atlantic Division this year fully expected to be the best in the NHL Three of the top five Stanley Cup favorites here [3:56] Tampa, of course, [3:59] been the monster the last couple years, [4:02] my Florida Panthers, [4:03] and the Toronto Maple Leafs. [4:05] But there's a couple things I think [4:07] that separate Tampa from the other two. [4:10] And it's postseason success [4:12] in goaltending. Toronto, nice offense. Austin Matthews and the rest of this group, really nice, [4:19] but this organization hasn't won a playoff series since 2004, and yet they're the favorites to win [4:26] the East. They have no idea what they're doing in that. Samsonoff and Matt Murray fighting for [4:32] the top spot there. They haven't had a top 10 goaltender in over a decade. Florida, my team, [4:38] another offensive juggernaut. [4:40] Broke NHL records last year in terms of goal scoring, [4:43] but they haven't won a series, get this, [4:46] since going back to when they went to the Stanley Cup in 1996. [4:51] Bobrovsky and Knight, it's okay. [4:54] It's a decent goaltending duo here in the regular season, [4:58] but Bobrovsky is 34 years old this season, [5:02] played the most starts since the 2018 series, [5:05] and left in a lot of bad goals. [5:07] So then you look at Tampa. [5:09] They have it all. [5:10] I was surprised to see the odds so high. [5:13] I thought it should be plus 350, maybe plus 400. [5:17] But they don't lose many guys here outside of Ryan McDonough in the offseason. [5:22] They have the best goaltender maybe in the history of hockey and Andre Bozilewski. [5:28] And, you know, every single year they keep saying that Tampa, you know, this is the end of the run. [5:35] But, you know, I don't see it. [5:36] They did a great job of locking up all their core members, players during the offseason. [5:42] They had that extra motivation because they lost in the Stanley Cup. [5:46] Bet a little. [5:47] Win a whole lot here. [5:48] We're going with the Tampa Bay Lightning to win the Eastern Conference. [5:52] Are you kidding me? [5:53] Plus 650?”
Tampa Bay lost in the first round of the 2023 playoffs to Toronto in six games; Florida, not Tampa Bay, won the Eastern Conference, so the futures bet loses (Wikipedia, 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs).
“How about Alabama going up against Texas A&M? [6:30] This is a big-time game. [6:31] Alabama's 5-0. [6:32] A&M, the Aggies are 3-2. [6:35] BetOnline.net line for this one. [6:37] Minus 24? [6:38] Lee, I get it. [6:39] I get the revenge factor and all that stuff, but minus 24? [6:43] I feel like that. [6:44] What is this line? [6:45] What should this line be? [6:46] So if you didn't factor in the revenge and the fact these two coaches hate each other, [6:53] I made the line 17. [6:56] So that's what as far as talent on the field and home field advantage should be. [7:00] So you're going to give an extra touchdown to play a team? [7:04] I'm not doing it. [7:05] I've been in this game too long. [7:07] So, Bama scored three touchdowns last week when Bryce Young went out. [7:11] But they were playing Arkansas. [7:12] That run defense is paper thin here. [7:16] Texas A&M's defense rock solid. [7:18] Their defensive coordinator, D.J. Durkin, coach at Ole Miss, [7:22] he knows what they're all about. [7:24] He just didn't have the talent, Ole Miss, to match up with them. [7:27] Much better athletes, much more depth to compete. [7:30] He can play like ten guys on the defensive line So they not going to get worn out here A last year before the big upset last week and last year they scored 10 and 22 points [7:43] and lost this to Arkansas-Mississippi State [7:45] before that 41-38 win versus Alabama. [7:49] Just don't play a team based on blind revenge. [7:53] Jimbo Fisher, he's going to have some tricks up his sleeve here. [7:56] Trust me, A&M will be as fired up as Alabama will. [8:00] I think Alabama wins 34-20, but 24 points, way too much. [8:07] Wrong team favorite. [8:08] We're taking Texas A&M here plus the 24.”
ALA 24, TA&M 20 — Alabama beat Texas A&M 24-20 on October 8, 2022; the Aggies +24 cover comfortably on a 4-point loss (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. [11:04] The Buccaneers minus 9 versus those Falcons. [11:07] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [11:08] So the Falcons, believe it or not, are the only team perfect 4-0 against the spread this year. [11:14] They have 9 wins in one possession game since the start of 2021 That tied for the most in the NFL and they covered all four this year Here the problem for them They going to be going up against Tampa Bay and Tampa Bay is going to be angry [11:33] especially the defense gave up 41 points. [11:36] Are you kidding me? [11:37] I think they're a top three defense. [11:39] And then you've got some injury concerns here. [11:42] Cordell Patterson on IR, so they've got to go with Tyler Algier. [11:46] I think he's a talented guy, but he has a penchant to fumble the ball. [11:51] Tampa Bay, those linebackers and DBs, they are always going for the strip. [11:57] So that might come into play here. [11:59] Then you got Tom Brady. [12:02] All the talk all week about him possibly getting divorced. [12:06] This is the best guy we've ever seen blocking out all the noise here. [12:11] They're 2-2. [12:13] This is a joke. [12:14] They're going to come out. [12:15] This is the game they're going to be firing on all cylinders. [12:18] They were playing a tough opponent last week. [12:20] Fell behind that fumble on the first play. [12:23] Probably just set the tone for the game. [12:25] This is going to be my first ever combo play. [12:29] I love the setup here. [12:32] It's going to be a blowout special and a level three lock all the way up. [12:38] Tampa Bay minus nine over Atlanta. [12:40] They might win this game by 25 to 35 points.”
TB 21, ATL 15 — Buccaneers beat the Falcons 21-15 on October 9, 2022; Tampa Bay -9 busts on a 6-point win (ESPN scoreboard).
“Matthew Tocic of the Florida Panthers comes over from Calgary. [4:50] We're going to do a player prop bet like this. [4:52] BetOnline.net line for him. [4:54] Tocic of the Panthers over 33.5 goals, minus 110. [4:57] Break this one down for me, Lee. [4:58] All right, so Jack and I were going through all the player props. [5:02] You know, NHL season starts on Friday, and we were going individually through it, [5:07] and we're like, no, no, no, no. [5:09] We got to this one, and all of a sudden, bells are going off. [5:13] We're like, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding. [5:15] Patrick was part of the biggest hockey trade, I thought, in recent history. [5:22] So he was acquired. [5:23] Usually you don't see superstars traded back and forth for each other. [5:27] But the Florida Panthers brought him in in exchange for Jonathan Huberto [5:30] and Mackenzie Weger. [5:33] So Patrick is just like his dad, Keith, [5:36] well-known for being one of these pesky guys that hangs around the net [5:41] and has really good hands. [5:43] He scored 42 goals and 104 points last year on a loaded Calgary team. [5:49] But I think he's going to be just as good, if not better, [5:53] for an even more talented Florida Panther roster this year. [5:57] So he's going to get top power play minutes here as the net front guy here for the Panthers. [6:04] And he's going to be on a top line with Alexander Barkoff all season. [6:09] If you're not familiar with him, get to know that name. [6:12] Barkoff, one of the top three best distributors of the hockey puck in all the NHL. [6:18] Tachik, also top five power play unit in offense here, [6:23] broke records all over the place last year in terms of production. [6:28] He just got a massive contract extension, [6:30] and if he doesn't have enough motivation coming into the new team here, [6:35] his old coach in Calgary basically called him out in the media last week [6:40] for being overrated and not having a Stanley Cup to his name yet. [6:44] So I love this type of motivation for a guy that just does not quit here. [6:51] New team, 35 goals. [6:54] He might get up to 45 or 50 this year. [6:58] Hidden gem, Matthew Tachik here of the Florida Panthers, [7:02] over three and a half goals.”
Matthew Tkachuk scored 40 goals in his first season with the Florida Panthers in 2022-23, clearing the 33.5 over (Wikipedia, citing NHL season stats). (Tkachuk 40 goals (2022-23 regular season))
“How about the Cleveland Guardians and the Kansas City Royals? [7:43] The Guardians are 90-70. [7:45] The Royals 65 BetOnline line for this one The Guardians minus 170 versus the Royals Break this one down for us So it has become a running story among professional baseball bettors of the world [7:57] that it's called Cal Quantro Day. [8:00] Why is that? [8:01] It's one of the best days of the week right now in Cleveland. [8:04] Why? [8:04] Well, the number two pitcher in the Guardians rotation [8:08] has now made 18 starts since the start of 2022. [8:13] to the Guardians incredible 14 and four in those starts in fact this dates back to the second season [8:20] he had in the big lead since 2020 he has not been tagged for a loss so he goes out of some of these [8:27] games but you know the bullpen blows it but he's gone 34 consecutive starts without a loss that's [8:35] 15-0 with a 237 ERA, and yet not many people are talking about him. [8:41] What is also most impressive is he's 8-0 with a 301 ERA [8:46] and 14 starts since the All-Star break, [8:49] playing mostly against playoff contenders like Houston, Toronto, Baltimore, [8:55] San Diego, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. [8:58] Now he's getting a Royals lineup, hitting fairly well, [9:02] but Cleveland has turned the offense around. [9:06] They rank third right now in 4.8 runs per game this month. [9:12] Daniel Lynch, who starts for Kansas City here, [9:14] decent matchup I think for him because he doesn't strike out a ton of guys. [9:19] And the K rate here for Cleveland, they just don't strike out. [9:25] Number one in the league in making contact. [9:27] and the pitcher they're facing here, Lynch, 37th percentile in K-rate here. [9:33] Sometimes you've got to lay it if you want to play it. [9:36] Lay the 170 here. [9:38] I think they get the comfortable win at home. [9:42] Level one lock, Cleveland Guardians money line, minus 170 over Kansas City.”
CLE 5, KC 3 — Guardians beat the Royals 5-3 behind Cal Quantrill; Cleveland moneyline covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“Lock of the day number two, Arizona Diamondbacks and the Milwaukee Brewers. [10:35] The Diamondbacks are 73-87. [10:37] The Brew crew, 75-85. [10:40] BetOnline.net line for this one. [10:42] Diamondbacks minus 115 versus the Brewers. [10:44] How in the world are the Diamondbacks favored in this one, Lee? [10:47] Break this one down for us. [10:49] Okay, so the Brewers got eliminated last night. [10:52] and teams that get eliminated that have high hopes for making it to the playoffs, [10:57] they fall flat on their back. [11:00] And I don't know if we're going to have a game last day of the season. [11:04] I mean, we'll see what happens, you know, with the race between the Atlanta Braves [11:08] and the New York Mets. [11:10] We're going to have a lot of teams tomorrow, nothing to play for. [11:13] But Arizona has a stud pitcher. [11:16] Zach Gallen, 12-3 on a bad team. [11:20] Team 14 games under .500. [11:22] with a .246 ERA. [11:25] I mean, they hit for this guy. [11:28] They scored now 25 runs in the last five games. [11:32] I think they're going to continue hitting. [11:33] You talk about a team that struggles. [11:36] It's the Milwaukee Brewers, and let's talk about their lineup. [11:41] They don have a batter not one hitting above 262 You know hey have one hitting 280 290 300 None none even close to that [11:52] They're going for the fences. [11:54] They just don't have the power. [11:56] And how about Christian Yelich? [11:58] Here's a guy, you talk about a guy that used to do everything. [12:02] When he last played more than 150 games, what did he do? [12:07] Well, he ended up hitting, get this, 36 and 44 homers with 110 and 97 RBIs. [12:17] This year, 14 homers. [12:20] That's right. [12:21] Just 14 homers in 152 games and just 57 RBIs. [12:27] I think he's got some back problems, some serious back problems. [12:30] They're just not telling you about. [12:32] So he's been a disappointment. [12:34] At one point, he was the guy maybe people thought top three in Major League Baseball [12:40] as far as having all the tools, but not anymore here. [12:43] I think they're just going to put in some scrubs today, just go through the motions here. [12:49] We're going to lay the small spot here in the Arizona Diamondbacks here. [12:53] We're going all the way up level three lock here in Major League Baseball [12:58] with the Arizona Diamondbacks over the disappointing Milwaukee Brewers.”
ARI 0, MIL 3 — Brewers shut out the Diamondbacks 3-0 behind six no-hit innings from Eric Lauer; Arizona moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“We'll take a look at the LA Angels and the Oakland A's. [4:42] The Angels actually really quietly have been playing some good ball lately. [4:46] 73 and 86. [4:47] The A's, no, they're not. [4:49] 57 and 102. [4:50] They are atrocious. [4:52] BetOnline.net line for this one. [4:54] The Angels minus one and a half runs plus 105 versus those Oakland A's. [4:58] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [4:59] Well, you've heard the saying good seats available. [5:01] Well, good sections are probably available if you want to go to the game tonight. [5:06] Check this one out. [5:07] But both teams, it's a little too late for this Angels team this year, [5:11] but they found a rhythm of one, seven straight out, [5:15] scoring their opponents by 22 runs in the last seven games. [5:19] No one's paying attention. [5:20] That's the Angels. [5:22] They've actually held opponents' offenses here to three runs or less [5:27] in all seven games, which is almost unheard of. [5:30] Their pitching had been horrible this year. [5:32] Tonight, Patrick Sandoval has been one of the few surprises this year. [5:37] He goes to the bump. [5:38] 6-9 on the year, but he has a .277 ERA in the second half. [5:44] .275 ERA from home this season. [5:47] His last start against Oakland with Sandoval's third this year, [5:50] and he's already 2-0 with a .237 ERA in those three matchups. [5:55] The main reason for this is just how bad the Oakland A's offense has been against lefties this year. [6:01] They're not as bad as my Marlins, but they rank 28th in batting average, 29th in OPS, [6:08] and 26th in weighted runs created when they face left-handed pitching so far. [6:14] I don't think they have much motivation here to turn it around this late. [6:17] Their starter for tonight, a guy named Adrian Martinez, 25-year-old rookie, has a 6.0 ADRA that actually jumps all the way to 6.94 at home. [6:29] With Oakland's offense reaching its worst all season right now, I just don't think they can keep up with the Angels group that has suddenly caught fire at the plate. [6:38] Give me the Angels as both teams are headed in different directions. [6:43] L.A. Angels, minus one and a half runs, plus 105.”
LAA 4, OAK 5 — Oakland beat the Angels 5-4 in 10 innings on Tony Kemp's walk-off RBI single; LA Angels -1.5 fails on both the loss and the spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“Now, this is a team I'm really excited about. [7:12] How about the Atlanta Braves going up against the Miami Marlins? [7:15] The Braves had a hell of a weekend. [7:16] They sitting there at 159 The Miami Marlins 67 They just waiting to see the offseason BetOnline line for this one The Braves minus one and a half runs plus 110 versus the Marlins [7:28] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:30] Wow. [7:31] So, the game's being played in Miami. [7:33] Let me tell you something. [7:34] A lot of Braves fans down in Miami. [7:36] I've gone to games before when the Braves come into town. [7:39] And it's usually like 60, 40 maybe when the Marlins are doing well. [7:43] it's going to be like 80-20 [7:46] maybe even 90-10 [7:48] so for the 5,000, 6,000, 7,000 [7:50] fans it'll be there [7:51] it'll be almost all Atlanta Braves [7:54] fans and what a weekend they had [7:56] they sweep the New York Mets [7:58] all they have to do is win [8:00] two games and anything else happens [8:02] over this next three days [8:04] with the Mets doesn't matter at all [8:06] they can actually even clinch tonight [8:08] with a win and the Mets losing [8:09] so they've got Bryce Elder [8:11] going to the bump tonight [8:13] You look at his record, 2-3, but this kid is a talented rookie right-hander, just dominant on the hill. [8:23] 276 ERA, he has a 1.22 whip in his 49 innings of work, and he's actually faced them all in three times [8:32] and limited them to three runs in 17 and two-thirds innings. [8:37] And so I just see Atlanta as they're just like a freight train right now, [8:42] out of control, ready to win this division here. [8:45] They want to end it here. [8:47] Austin Riley, boy, is he, I mean, against Miami, what has he done? [8:52] Hit six homers along with eight RBIs here. [8:55] He's just doing well. [8:56] Their closers are doing well. [8:59] The Marlins, Jesus Lozardo is pitching. [9:02] He's okay. [9:03] But 3-7 ERA here. [9:05] He can get wild at times. [9:08] Mahal Roas, you know, he's about the only guy getting above 250. [9:13] They just have no punch in this lineup at all here. [9:17] And just think that they're going to be ready to go here. [9:20] Later one and a half runs. [9:22] Atlanta Braves blowout special here.”
ATL 0, MIA 4 — Marlins shut out the Braves 4-0 behind Jesus Luzardo's 12 strikeouts; Atlanta Braves -1.5 busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“The 49ers without Trey Lance with Jimmy G at the helm, 1-2. [11:15] The Rams 2-1 defending Super Bowl champs. [11:19] BetOnline.net line for this one. [11:20] The 49ers minus 1-1-1 versus the Rams. [11:23] Break this one down for us, Lee. [11:25] Okay, so this is a rematch of the championship game. [11:28] the NFC last year, and the Rams won the game. [11:32] But usually the 49ers dominate 6-1 straight up and against the spread [11:38] in the last seven games here against the Rams here. [11:42] You know, Jimmy G's, I mean, hand was not, [11:45] he was in bad shape playing that game last year. [11:48] And they're also going to be missing Trent Williams, their star tackle. [11:52] So that's the only real pause for concern. [11:55] But I'm watching Matt Stafford. [11:57] And Matthew Stafford, thrown eight interceptions in the last five games, [12:01] I just think he's still got some arm problems. [12:03] They're not going to tell you about it, you know, [12:05] not going to show up on the injury report. [12:08] They kind of hit it. [12:09] You saw the way he looked the opening week. [12:11] He's not going to look that bad here. [12:13] But Aaron Donald loves to rush the passer, [12:16] but actually not great as far as in the run game. [12:20] So I have a feeling San Francisco is going to be able to use that running game [12:24] to have some success here. [12:26] and think that they're going to be able to push the ball down the field [12:29] to their tight end and also their receivers. [12:32] So, you know, everyone talks about the Rams' cornerbacks [12:35] and how great they are, but they take chances here. [12:37] And I think in play action, once that running game gets going, [12:40] they're going to be tough to take down. [12:42] So, line's low. [12:44] It's one and a half. [12:45] So, let's start off the week with a nice win in the NFL. [12:48] Let's keep rolling there. [12:49] We're going to go with the San Francisco 49ers minus the one and a half points [12:55] over the defending champions here, Level 1 Lock.”
SF 24, LAR 9 — 49ers beat the Rams 24-9 on Monday Night Football; San Francisco -1.5 covers by a 15-point margin (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Mississippi State minus 3.5 versus those Aggies. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so defense carrying the Aggies. Great move by Jimbo Fisher to snag one of the top-tier defensive coordinators. and most people don't talk about it, but been, I think, the savior to this season so far. D.J. Durkin stole him from Ole Miss, and that's what Lane Train should be upset about, not the crowd. So I think they're going to miss him. How good have they been? Well, they're allowing just 4.7 yards per pass attempt, and we're talking about a team that had a couple defensive line injuries. In the Miami game, they were down a couple linebackers. In fact, in that game against Miami, they were down to two third-string cornerbacks, but they get pressure on the quarterback, not just about sacks. Also, they get in quarterback space. They don't allow them to run, and also they defend against the pass. I mean, it's not just interceptions. They knock away a lot of balls here. They come up and play tight. They bury their coverages. And then on offense, Mack Johnson, nothing special, not fancy, but not turning the ball over, and they're running back Devon A-Chain. I mean, boy, has he been good. I mean, I don't know if he's a feature back in the NFL, but for a small guy, he runs hard, and boy, is he fast. Remember, he's also a great kickoff returner. Might put him back on punts now that Smith is going to be out for the season, their star receiver. But, hey, I love the Pirate. Fun to watch, great interview, but he's better as an underdog here. They're not the underdog. They're the favorite. Wrong team favorite. Texas A&M outright 24-23 over Mississippi State.”
Mississippi State 42, Texas A&M 24 — Mississippi State beat Texas A&M 42-24 behind Will Rogers' 329 passing yards; Texas A&M moneyline busted (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Castaneda minus 190 versus Willie Cat. This is the second fight on the main card, Lee. Break this one down. Let us know what's going on with the UFC as well because there's some strange things with media and no fans. I'm just so confused. Yeah, I don't get it. You know, the rumor is that Mark Zuckerberg is going to be there and either he's inviting family or friends or he's going to show up by himself. I don't know. But if that's the case, I just think it's a bad look. I normally love what Dana White does. I think he does an incredible job. He's built this organization into a powerhouse. I think it's must-see TV every single time they hold an event. But I just don believe with it I just don think this is a good call here So I just think that you know it going to possibly stain them for a little bit But, all right, let's go over what I'm calling UFC Facebook this Saturday night. So I'm not sure if you know, you know, like what's going on. I don't think anyone does. But he actually refuted that Mark Zuckerberg will be in attendance. and he rented out the place, but let's call it UFC Facebook. In the second fight, as you said, of the main card, Sexy Mexi takes on Willie Cat. And the 30-year-old Castaneda, 19-5 overall, 2-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming on short notice. And short notice fights are really tough for fighters because sometimes they don't have the cardio ready to get in there and fight. and sometimes they're at a disadvantage as far as cutting weight and come in there weakens. So he is 2-1. His only loss was on short notice to Nathaniel Wood, who is very talented. Castaneda coming off a very impressive arm triangle submission finish here over Miles John in his last fight. His opponent, 27-year-old Daniel Santos, 9-2 overall, 0-1 in the UFC. He was dominated in his one lone appearance in the UFC. And in my opinion, it's still a question if he belonged. Tessa Neda looked very impressive in his last outing. And now I hope I don't get unfriended here for saying this. But we expect him to have a striking advantage and use that along with superior grappling and his experience edge to dominate this fight here over Willie Cat here. So we're going big here on Sexy Mexy here. John Castanedos, minus 190 here. Blowout special over Wiley Cat here.”
Daniel Santos knocked out John Castaneda in round 2 (4:28) at UFC Fight Night; Castaneda moneyline busted (official UFC.com result).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. the Mets minus 120 versus the Braves. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, this is one of the best regular season matchups in the entire season coming up tonight between Max Reed of the Braves and Jacob deGrom of the New York Mets. I'm a huge Max Reed fan. We talked about it many times 13 and seven with a 250 ERA He has just a batting average against in his last seven starts and he been really good at home this season But he's no Jacob DeGrom. And, in fact, when he does pitch like DeGrom, his team hasn't backed him up offensively recently. And in his last seven starts since the beginning of August, has just a 214 ERA, and the team hasn't given up more than three runs once. However, they're only four and three in those seven games. Doesn't make sense for some reason. Just sometimes the offenses, they just rely on the pitcher too much here. They scored less than four runs in four of those games, and they didn't get freed the run support he needed. Now, DeGrom, on the other hand, is actually coming off a really bad start against the Oakland A's. And I think he bounces right back here with the division on the line. He's already faced Atlanta twice this year, and he racked up 21 strikeouts in just 13 innings. Keep an eye out for this young catching prospect of the Mets, too. His name is Francisco Alvarez. He was called up last night in advance of the big series. and he is the consensus number one prospect in all of baseball. He should be a big addition to the Mets offense here that is finally starting to heat up. Again, they scored 35 runs in the last five games. I think the Mets take another step towards locking up the NL East tonight. Level two lock, New York Mets tonight, minus 120 over the Atlanta Braves”
Atlanta Braves 5, New York Mets 2 — Braves beat the Mets 5-2, hitting three home runs off Jacob deGrom; New York moneyline busted (ESPN scoreboard).
“Taking a look at Eric Lauer the BetOnline line this player prop bet over five and a half strikeouts, plus 115. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so Eric Lauer's been really solid this year. You know, they're trying to get to the playoffs. This is a must-win game. You know, they've got just a total of six or seven games, depending on the team's left. But they're a full three games back, so have to win this game. He's 10-7, 396 ERA. Poor last performance. I mean, he got hit hard in two and two-thirds innings, gave up two runs. They had to pull him here. So his arm should be really strong. He's going to face a Miami Marlins team that is – we're not talking about struggling. It looks like they've given up. They were winning 4-0 against the Mets in the top of the seventh and blew the lead. Now, they just are not making contact. They're hitting when they get it. They're going all or nothing here. You talk about strikeouts. So against the Mets, they not only struck out, they struck out early and often. Struck out a total of 16 times. So now you get a strikeout pitcher here and Lauer, who I think will come back, and he's facing a team. I mean, the Marlins are batting their backup catcher in the four hole. I mean, are you kidding me? You look at the – they don't have anyone even close to 300. Their top hitters hitting 282 in the lineup lately. After that, the next best player, 246. Are you kidding me here? We're going with the over five and a half strikeouts here. Total hidden gem here. Outside of Milwaukee fans, most people won't pay attention to this prop. I think Lauer, he might end up with seven, eight, nine strikeouts here.”
Miami Marlins 4, Milwaukee Brewers 2 — Eric Lauer struck out 9 over 5 innings (1 H, 0 R) as the Marlins beat the Brewers 4-2; the over 5.5 strikeouts hit (ESPN box score). (Eric Lauer: 5.0 IP, 9 K)
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Seattle minus 115 versus Texas with the take back being plus 105. Break this one on down for us. Yeah, so what we're seeing here is Seattle's in uncharted territory. They are trying to make the playoffs, and they're going to do it here, you know, without possibly their best player. I mean, he's on the IR list. And so when you're missing a guy that, you know, is Rodriguez, does everything. I mean, defensively, hitting the ball, steals bases. He's the heart and soul of their club. I think it's a team that's in real trouble here. They're going to start Marco Gonzalez here. Here's a guy, 30-year-old left-hander, 1-2 with a 5-16 ERA. He's given up at least five earned runs in two of the last three games he's pitched here. I mean, here's a guy that's just struggling down the stretch here. He's also 10-15 with a 4-5 ERA here in 2022. So doesn't get a whole lot of strikeouts here. and facing a Texas team that really nothing to lose here and actually playing pretty well of late here. So John Gray, one of these guys, he's going to give you some – he's going to eat up the innings. And then you talk about the bullpens, the back end, so important in close games. And who has the better bullpen? Actually, the Texas Rangers. Their ERA has given up just 4 as far as their ERA here the last 10 days And the Mariners here I mean they struggling 4 their ERA here and I mean they getting pitched out here I like Texas Wrong team favorite, plus 105 against Seattle. If you're looking at that line, you're saying Seattle in a playoff race, laying 115, don't fall for the trap. Take the Texas Strangers here to get the upset, and like I said, wrong team favorite over Seattle.”
Seattle Mariners 10, Texas Rangers 9 — Mariners beat the Rangers 10-9 in 11 innings; Texas moneyline busted (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Raiders minus 2 versus the Broncos. Let me know about it, Lee. Break it down for me. Okay, so the Raiders, as we all know, only team in the NFL without a win or a tie. Yeah, there's a couple teams with ties out there. And didn't see it. I thought a worst-case scenario, bad breaks, maybe 1-2. they've outplayed each one of their opponents for at least a half and those opponents were the chargers cardinals and the titans as we all know they blew that 16 point lead to the cardinals here this is a must win game especially with the chiefs on the road a likely loss next week so um i like the weapons their car has here and devontae adams and darren waller the offensive Off-of-line, I think, you know, they have three new starters actually starting to come together. Max Crosby, I think he's going to be on a mission here. The Broncos haven't scored more than 16 points in a game. And they've gone against some really weak teams. I mean, Seattle and the Houston Texans here, they have more three-and-outs than any other team. In fact, they had eight more three-and-outs in the game against San Francisco. You know, we hear about let Russ cook. The only thing we're seeing so far is Russell Wilson looks cooked, just not making good decisions, not making quick decisions. And Nathaniel Hackett, I think he looks overmatched here. The Raiders have owned the Broncos here, winning six of the last seven meetings, make it seven out of eight here. We're going to go with a blowout special here. I like the Las Vegas Raiders. I think they get the job done, 30 to 14.”
Las Vegas Raiders 32, Denver Broncos 23 — Raiders beat the Broncos 32-23 behind Josh Jacobs' two touchdowns; Las Vegas moneyline cashed (ESPN recap/scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Ole Miss minus seven versus Kentucky. Break this one down for us. So you think of the Ole Miss offense Q and you thinking oh you know we got Lane Kiffin We got Hyde flying We throw the football Not the case I mean this is a running team They run out of the power spread. Their quarterback, Jackson Dart, hey, four games, only thrown 51 pass attempts. Now, first one of the games he did share time. But since that time, they run the ball early and often here. Do I think their offense is good? I'm not so sure. They've only faced Georgia Tech, Troy, and Tulsa's defense. Kentucky, I think they have the better defense, allowing just 272 yards per game here and only 3.7 yards per carry with only three scores on the ground here. I think they have the much better quarterback, Will Levis. You know, you talk about all these quarterbacks that have not looked good early. College football, he's one of the ones that looks better each and every game. I think he's a mid-first level round draft pick right now. They're going to welcome back star running back Chris Rodriguez, who was suspended for the first four games. How much has he missed? Well, he only has a career average of 6.1 yards per carry. They're 11-3-1 against the spread the last 15 games here. I think they're more balanced. I think they're more complete. They're looking for revenge for 2020s, 42-41 overtime loss here. We're going to Kentucky straight up here. Level 2 lock on Thursday. Kentucky outright 31-24 over Ole Miss.”
Ole Miss 22, Kentucky 19 — Ole Miss beat Kentucky 22-19 after Kentucky lost a go-ahead score to penalty and fumbled the next play; Kentucky moneyline busted (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. UAB minus 10 versus Rice. Break this one down for us, Lee. Well, UAB's had a couple real-night seasons the last couple years. I mean, what they've done with that program, very under the radar, but they don't beat themselves. That's their motto. They run the football under former head coach Bill Clark He had to step down had some health issues but his replacement Brian Vincent doing the same thing But you know they failed their first road test They went to Liberty and lost 21-14. Talk about a team that, you know, very conservative. They lost 21-14 and threw the ball only 15 times for 114 yards. Then they played Georgia Southern at home. They throw the ball only 19 times. They like to pound the rock. Like I said, don't beat themselves. They're playing rice. Talk about an underrated team. No one's been watching rice. No one's talking about rice. Yeah, but they almost beat Houston last week. They ended up beating perennial power at this level, Louisiana Lafayette here, 33 to 21 at home. So I think they're going to have a pretty good crowd here. And 10 points? I think it's way too much. I mean, this is a team UAB that is not a score. Probably on average mid-20s at best. So I think Rice can score it there. I got the score UAB 24-21. I think the line is way too elevated here. Hidden gem number one here, the Rice Owls. Hooty-hoo. We're going to take them plus to 10 against UAB.”
Rice 28, UAB 24 — Rice beat UAB 28-24 on the road; Rice +10 won outright, covering easily (ESPN team schedule).
“We're going to roll with the BetOnline.net line for this one. A little player prop bet. over one and a half total bases minus 115 versus the red socks break this one down for us lee so gunner henderson was probably the biggest prospect in baseball at the trade deadline this year after the oriole society to sell uh some pieces despite being in the hunt and uh they called this kid up and how has he done since joining the big league team at just 21 years old, 270 batting average, 830 OPS, which is third on the entire team, and 44 slugging percentage, which is second on the team. This kid's 6'2", 215 already. He is a bona fide athlete. He reaches sprinter speeds as high as almost anyone in the league. And he's trying to earn a roster spot for next year. So those singles and the gaps are turning into doubles like nothing for this kid. So he's getting 42-year-old Rich Hill in this matchup here as well. Henderson has some problems with lefties this year, hitting 167. But that's in only 24 at-bats against left-handed pitching. You can't really hold that against him this early. And what is the best way to get acclimated to a type of pitcher you're not comfortable with? How about facing a guy with a 465 ERA that throws on average? Get this, 87, just 87 miles per hour on his fastball. So that's not as tough as a 99-mile-an-hour fastball. I think you see from most of the other guys in the American League. Take Henderson here over one-and-a-half bases.”
Gunnar Henderson went 0-for-1 with a walk (pinch-hit appearance) for 0 total bases as the Orioles lost 3-1 to Boston; the over 1.5 total bases missed (ESPN box score). (Gunnar Henderson: 1 AB, 0 H, 0 total bases)
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Michigan minus 10.5 versus Iowa. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so this happens sometimes. I'll go against the team one week. Went against Michigan last week when I had Maryland. Thought Maryland was very underrated. But go with that team that I went against the very next week. So Michigan didn't cover last week against Maryland. But they did some things really well. They had over 6 yards per carry. 6.1 to be exact. versus giving up just 3.8 yards for carry advantage. And they also won the turnover and sack advantage. The way Iowa stays in this game, that's it, is turnovers. They need a plus two or plus three turnover advantage, I believe, to stay in this game. Michigan won the Big Ten title game last year versus Iowa 42-3. Both these teams aren't that much different this year, except the Iowa offense has really regressed. I mean, maybe, I think they're ranked 130th out of 131 teams. I mean, it's painful. They cheer for the kicker when he comes on the field. That's their biggest weapon this year. Michigan running back Blake Corum is a difference maker. He's a home run hitter. How bad is the Iowa offense been in quarterback Spencer Petras? Nine for 22 last week for 122 passing yards. No touchdowns. And just they only gained 3.2 yards per carry running the football versus Rutgers. Ugh. Horrible. Michigan plays a clean game or just turns the ball over once. I don't see how Iowa keeps it close here. Blowout special. Michigan Wolverines 30-10 over Iowa.”
Michigan 27, Iowa 14 — Michigan beat Iowa 27-14 behind Blake Corum; Michigan moneyline cashed (ESPN scoreboard).
“How about betonline.net line for this one? Over eight and a half total runs, minus 110. Washington Nationals versus the Braves. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah so this Major League Baseball race is something fun There a couple really good you know races going on And Atlanta Mets none better They are tied Dead heat 97 and 58 So this game is big. But sometimes there's a better way to approach this game. I don't have any concern about the Braves going to run here, especially with the vision tied and every bit of motivation to keep starters out there all game long. Ronald Acuna and Matt Olsen, these guys are heating up. And this lineup is getting a young guy in Hosea Gray here who doesn't have what it takes, in my opinion, at the big league level quite yet. 5-17 ERA on the year. And get this, with 37 home runs allowed, which is the most in baseball. When you have the over in a game like this, you need the home underdog to put up a couple of runs. From everything I've seen out of Jake Orozzi, he's going to give up some runs to this national team today, too. He has a 621-year race since joining the Braves at the deadline, and he's given up 14 runs in the last three road charts here along against teams like the Phillies, Mariners, and Cards. He was starting to lose his career in Houston, but I think it's just about done when he's going to be through with the Braves here. I think the Nationals carry their weight here and get us to a 6-5 final score. We're going to go with a level two lock here. Washington Nationals Atlanta Braves over eight and a half total runs minus 110”
Washington Nationals 3, Atlanta Braves 2 — Nationals walked off the Braves 3-2 in 10 innings, a combined 5 runs; the over 8.5 total runs missed (ESPN box score).
“BenOnline.net line for this one. Boise State minus 6.5 versus the Aztecs. Thoughts on this one, Lee? That's an understatement. So a couple coaches have been fired. Well, they didn't fire Andy Avalos, but let me tell you something. He might be the first guy that we've seen in year two get fired midseason and by the end of the season. This has been an unmitigated disaster. Last week, they went on the road to UTEP as a 16.5-17 point favorite and lost by 17. Hank Bachmeier, the quarterback, they told him he's not going to start anymore. He hit the transfer portal. They fired the offensive coordinator. So they're going to come in with a new coordinator, backup quarterback, team that can't score. Yeah, okay, they scored 31 against New Mexico, 30 against Tennessee Martin, an FCS school, but against Oregon State and UTEP scored 17 and 10 points. And a couple of those scores against Oregon State were in garbage time. This is a team in turmoil. So, hey, what is their weakness? Well, they don't have it up front. They just do not have the guys up front they used to have. They used to have some guys that overachieved, just don't see it anymore. Andy Avalos, he's not recruiting. He's not developing players. Now they're going to face a San Diego State team that can run the football. And they've given up over 175 yards rushing to the two decent running teams that they faced, Oregon State and UTEP here. I like San Diego State. This line is 6.5. I think it's going to close 4.5, 5 here. We might see a 13 game here. I don't know who's going to win, but 13-10 either way here. So we're going to take the six and a half points in the San Diego State as takes here against the Boise State Broncos.”
Boise State 35, San Diego State 13 — Boise State routed San Diego State 35-13 (played Fri Sept 30, 2022); SDSU +6.5 lost by 22, failing to cover (ESPN team schedule).
“Betonline.net line for this one. the Phillies money line, minus 160 versus the Cubs. Thoughts on this one, Lee. So, Marcus Stroman has been one of the most polarizing free agent signings in recent history for the Cubs, especially because of what he's done at Wrigley Field. He's always been a big ground ball pitcher, which is supposed to help him with the wins in Chicago, but he's a 631 ERA in 10 starts at home now, and he's given up a home run every five innings. He's faced the Phillies team once in July already, and he shut them down pretty well. But that matchup was in Philadelphia while Stroman has been pitching better away from home. Now he's going to face Zach Wheeler, who has a .298 ERA, on what is considered a bad year for his standards. Unlike Stroman, Wheeler has mastered Wrigley Field, going 1-1 with a .233 ERA in 19 innings there. He had a rough two-game stretch against the Mets back in October, and they gave him some time off to nurse an injury. He came back with four strong innings against the Blue Jays in his first start back, and they're going to need him big if they're going to make a playoff push here. So let's go with the Phillies in this one. Blowout special, Philadelphia Phillies, money line minus 160”
Chicago Cubs 2, Philadelphia Phillies 1 — Cubs beat the Phillies 2-1 behind Marcus Stroman; Philadelphia moneyline busted (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Blue Jays, money line, minus 105 versus the Yankees. break this one down for me, Lee. Okay, the only reason Jose Barrios is still in the Blue Jays lineup is because he's pitched okay at home. And because the rest of the starting pitching rotation, I'm going to put it nice, has struggled mightily this year. Kikuchi, how about this? Gone. Mitch White, awful. Barrios hasn't been much better, but he's still getting starts because his numbers aren't that bad at home. On the road, Third worst ERA in Blue Jays history at 6 But in Toronto he has been better than solid 7 with an ERA under 4 This is actually the fourth time he's faced the Yankees in 2022. But the first three of those matchups came in the Bronx, where he has struggled in his career. Now he gets them at home, where he just shut out Tampa Bay and Baltimore. and it's going to be another playoff-like atmosphere after the walk-offs last night. He's also getting Jamison Talon here, who I think is a great matchup here for the Blue Jays offense. Talon's ERA is a full point higher away from Yankee Stadium at 4.42, and he's given up 14 of his 24 home runs on the road this season despite only pitching 17 less innings away from New York. I'm not confident in a guy struggling with homers to go into this big matchup here. Take the home team, Toronto Blue Jays, money line, minus 105, level one lock over the New York Yankees.”
New York Yankees 5, Toronto Blue Jays 2 — Yankees beat the Blue Jays 5-2 to clinch the AL East; Toronto moneyline busted (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Under 24.5 receiving yards, minus 110 for Saquon Barkley. Break this one down for us, Lee. So Saquon Barkley, I believe, is back to full health. I mean, he just looked good this year. Second week, you know, wasn't his greatest rushing game, but they did give him the ball 21 times for 72 yards, kept him in the game. He did catch three balls for 16 yards. And then the week before he had one of his greatest games. I mean, you could tell that this guy is going to be something else. He had 18 carries for 164 yards, six catches for 30 yards. But I think things will change this week. I think if they do give him the ball, he's going to want to run the ball downhill. When you play the Dallas Cowboys, there's one guy you've got to take notice of on every single play. It's Micah Parsons. You're better off running right at him than running the other way because he's so quick in pursuit. And then when they have to throw the football, they're not going to be able to send Barkley out on pass patterns very often. He's going to have to stay in and block. You've got to have two guys on him. So one guy cannot block Michael Parsons here. I think Saquon Barkley might have a decent game, but he's not going to be catching the ball here. We're going to go with under 24.5 receiving yards for Barkley here. Hidden gem. Boom. There it is right there. And that makes a lot of sense. And Michael Parsons is a game wrecker. Yeah, you need all hands on deck when it comes to trying to slow that guy down. I didn't say stop him because there is no stopping Michael Parsons, But Saquon Barkley is going to have to do everything he can to help slow him down. There you go. Hidden gem for the day. Under 24 and a half receiving yards for one Saquon Barkley.”
Saquon Barkley had 4 catches for 45 receiving yards against Dallas, exceeding the 24.5 under (ESPN box score). (Saquon Barkley: 4 rec, 45 receiving yards)
“BetOnline line for this one The Braves minus one and a half runs minus 145 versus nationals Thoughts on this one Lee So the Braves had a horrible first part of the week but came back to one of the final two games of the series in Philadelphia on Saturday and Sunday. Now they've closed to one and a half games back here in the race to win the division against the Mets. Now, if they win tonight, they're going to be just one game back with a huge series going this weekend between the Braves and the Mets. So this game is huge. They're not sitting any guys out here. They have just dominated the Washington Nationals here. Nationals had played better of late, but they had trouble against the Marlins over the weekend. They go back home. Atlantis beat Washington head-to-head, 11 of the 13 meetings here. And you look as far as pitchers. This is going to be a pitching mismatch here. So you've got a pitcher here for the Atlanta Braves that I really like. Okay. So Bryce Elder, you look at his record, he's like 1-3, 338 ERA, but he's been pitching much better. His velocity is up. He goes against Corey Abbott, who's struggling 0-3, 485 ERA. Stacked lineup here for Atlanta. Washington playing out the string, and Atlanta wins by two or more. It seems like almost every single game out. going back to the last two, three months here. I like Atlanta. Lay the one-and-a-half runs here, minus 145. Remember, you get nine at-bats. They're the visiting team. When you're the home team and you're leading by, let's say, one run or it's tied, yeah, it sometimes doesn't come down to that last at-bat. If you're winning by one run, game's over. So I like Atlanta here. Lay the one-and-a-half, minus 145 over the Washington Nationals.”
Atlanta Braves 8, Washington Nationals 0 — Braves shut out the Nationals 8-0; Atlanta -1.5 covered comfortably (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline line for this one The G minus one versus Dallas Break this one down for us Lee All right so the Giants are 2 and they're celebrating right now. Give them credit. They did win both of those games, but let's look at who they beat. They beat Tennessee. Tennessee relaxed. They came back to win 21-20, and then they beat Carolina in the error-filled game there, 19-16. So I give him credit here, but I still see a lot of holes. And the Cowboys have dominated the Giants. In fact, they've won nine of the last ten meetings. They've gone eight and two against the spread. Cooper Rush is actually 2-0 here as a fill-in in his Dallas career. I thought he did a good job. He's hitting the open receivers here. And the Giants will be missing, I believe, their best defensive lineman, Leonard Williams. They have a couple edge rushers that are a game-time decision. And I like the one-two running back combination, Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard. I think these two guys do a really nice job. Daniel Jones, the quarterback for the Giants, just so up and down. I mean, he can look great on a couple plays and hit on a big play. And then the very next play, throw an interception, he also fumbles a lot. Doesn't take care of the ball. Doesn't see that blindside rusher, it seems like, all too often. And I just think that the Cowboys pass rush is just so good here. That's the difference. I like said, I don't know whether it's going to be a sack, a strip sack, an interception here, but I'm just not counting on Daniel Jones to put them up to three and O. So, Hey, I know that Dak Prescott's gone, but Cooper rush is doing a good enough job. And the defense for Dallas came up big with six sacks last week at Joe Burrow. I think they continue here. Also like their special teams. We're going with the Cowboys here, 23-16 over the Giants. Level one lock to start the week.”
Dallas Cowboys 23, NY Giants 16 — Cowboys beat the Giants 23-16 on Monday Night Football; Dallas moneyline cashed (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline line for this one Ole Miss minus 22 versus Tulsa Lee break this one down And Tulsa should be 3-0. So not too many people watched their opening game against Wyoming and Laramie, but one of the strangest games. So Tulsa's up by double digits, middle of the fourth quarter, and there was literally eight or nine plays. Every single play went against Tulsa. I mean, also some bad calls. You travel that far and you play against some of these Mountain West Conference officials. They're right there as far as horrible calls sometimes, like with the Pac-12 officials. So they got home jobbed. They relaxed and lost the game. But there's some things I like. Last year, their quarterback, Bryn, he had 18 touchdowns, but 16 interceptions. Different guy this year. They have the number one passing attack in the country. He's thrown 11 touchdowns and only one interception. He's going against an untested Ole Miss secondary. Ole Miss has not played anyone this year. And Tulsa's run defense, and that's how Ole Miss likes to travel. They love to run the football. They are not a passing team this year. Tulsa allowing under four yards a carry. I'm going with Ole Miss to win the game, 35-24. But 22 points, way too much here. Let's go with a level one lock to start the day here on Locked on Bets. I like Tulsa here, plus the points, level one lock.”
Ole Miss 35, Tulsa 27 — Ole Miss beat Tulsa 35-27, a margin of 8; Tulsa +22 covered easily (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. the Ravens minus three versus those Patriots. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, I think the Ravens got some real problems in the secondary. They got burned by Miami big time. So they've got their top couple cornerbacks are either out or game time decision. Their safety position is an absolute miss. Missing a couple starters there. The reserves, they look like they're running in quicksand. I mean, some of the slowest defensive backs I've ever seen. If they're running a 40-yard dash, Hill and Waddell, it looked like they were 20 yards ahead of them after 40 yards. I mean, they just can't stay with speed receivers. Even New England's receivers I think will have some success here. New England's front seven, really good on defense. They not going to allow them hard jacks in a run like he did in the first half against Miami Special teams also except for kicker Big edge for New England here Better coaching I like New England here Wrong team favorite. Give me New England. Three points at home. They win this game outright 24-21.”
Baltimore Ravens 37, New England Patriots 26 — Ravens beat Patriots 37-26; New England +3 lost outright by 11, failing to cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Chiefs minus six versus the Colts. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so Kansas City, everything's looking really good. 2-0 on the season. Patrick Mahomes doesn't look like he misses Hill at all. Even the running game's getting going. Their defense is playing well enough to win. And Indianapolis, 0-1-1. They were shut out by Jacksonville. They got some real problems here. But in the 2019 season, when Kansas City won the Super Bowl, They actually lost to Indianapolis. Jacoby Brissett was the quarterback. And what was their game plan? Run heavy. They ran the ball 45 times and threw it only 29. They ran for 180 yards here. They were lined up in run-heavy sets here. And I think that's the Chiefs' weakness still. So the Chiefs have gotten lucky in facing two pass-happy teams, and the Cardinals and also the Chargers who threw it 63 and 67 of the time facing a completely different type team here Indianapolis has talent Seven pro bowlers last year. Almost a third of their team were pro bowlers. Just haven't put it together yet here. They're at home. They're getting almost a touchdown. Little ground and pound. Control the ball for 35, 38 minutes here. I'm taking Indianapolis here. This could be a wrong team favored. But you know what? It's not. It's a level three lock all the way up Indianapolis over KC on Sunday.”
Indianapolis Colts 20, Kansas City Chiefs 17 — Colts beat Chiefs 20-17 on the road; Indianapolis +6 won outright, covering easily (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. We're going to roll under seven total runs, minus 110 in the Dodgers versus the Diamondbacks. Break this one down, Lee. Let us know about this under. Yeah, so I know you don't like to play these games. I know you hate unders. You like the overs. They're over sometimes by the fourth or fifth inning if we're on it, and we find something strong. But look at this. The Dodgers have clinched the division and will likely clinch the best record in the NL really soon. So they're gearing up for the playoffs. They're resting starters. They're testing out young pitchers throughout the rotation, and they're just trying to keep guys healthy. I think that makes the under seven the play here against Zach Gallin. Zach Gallin has the best ERA in baseball. I bet you if you ask 10 even baseball aficionados that question, they wouldn't be able to answer that. In fact, like I said, best ERA in baseball the last month has been the best pitcher in all of baseball the second half. He has an insane 099 ERA the last seven starts. In his last 11 starts since the All-Star break, he's 8-1 with a 1-15 ERA. Up until last week, he was on a streak of almost 45 consecutive innings without allowing a run. It's one of the best storylines of the season, but it just hasn't gotten any traction because the Diamondbacks are out of the playoff race here. On the other end of the matchup, Julio Urias, a lefty who has got to be the most consistent pitcher in baseball, in my opinion. He has the third best ERA behind Justin Verlander and Dylan Seas. And he's actually second in the NL Cy Young voting right now behind Sandy Alcantara. So I just don't see much offense here from either side. Gallon matches up well with lefties like Freddie Freeman and Cody Bellinger. While Arizona ranks all the way down at 26 in OPS against left-handed pitchers, you're going to see some minor league hitting here in this one against two elite pitchers. Take the under here. Play it with confidence. Under seven total runs. L.A. Dodgers, Arizona, and Diamondbacks.”
3-2 — Dodgers beat Diamondbacks 3-2 (combined 5 runs), staying under the 7-run total (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Clemson minus seven. versus Wake Forest. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah Wake Forest I thought was looking ahead last week They barely escaped that game against Liberty Now Wake Forest early in the season I mean they like Oklahoma State Start off really strong and then usually hit the wall. Wake Forest does not have depth, and last year happened again. They played Army midseason. They got beaten up in that game physically, and then they played Clemson right after that. They allowed 6.2 yards per carry in that game, 10.2 yards per pass attempt. Wake Forest's skill players are really underrated, and I think Clemsons aren't even close to the same as a couple years ago. Clemson, quarterback D.J. Ugulele struggles, it seems like, early in games. They might go to Cade Klubinick in this game, and I love Sam Hartman for Wake Forest. You know, he had that blood clot issue. That's cleared up now. He's played the last two games. He runs that read option maybe better than anyone. If you've never seen Wake Forest, a lot of people don't watch him. He rides the running back and actually almost goes with him two or three yards from where he starts putting the ball in his stomach. And he makes a decision as he's reading the defense whether he's going to hand it off or pass the ball. He is one of the best, I think, five quarterbacks in college football. Clemson's won 13 straight. it's going to all end in winston-salem on saturday wrong team favorite here wake forest outright against clemson 38 35”
45-51 — Clemson beat Wake Forest 51-45 in double overtime, so the Wake Forest ML pick loses (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Vikings minus six versus Detroit. Break it down for us, Lee. Okay, so if you're watching Detroit, they've got an alpha male on that team right now. And his name is Amon Ross St. Brown, wide receiver. He is, you know what, taking names. And you've got to have a couple lead dogs. And he's doing it the right way. I mean, he's not doing it for just attention on himself. I think he's doing it to get the team fired up, saying, hey, I was disrespected. There's something like 18 receivers drafted before me. I know every single one of them. He named them. And I think there's a lot of guys on this Detroit team that are starting to feel that way. I think Campbell, their head coach, doing a nice job. He realizes it's not going to happen overnight here. Look at the two games last season. I watched him during the summer. Combined. Score was tied. 46-all. Kevin O'Connell looked great for the Vikings in that first week. They surprised Green Bay. But then, you know what? I think he's sitting there after the game thinking, hey, I'm stuck with Kirk Cousins after Monday night's game here. Another three interceptions here. Yeah he might have to suffer with them all season long here and I just think Detroit on the rise here Are they uber talented No But a lot of teams in the middle if you play hard play smart you going to win They did not control the time of possession of the games last year. Only had it for 27, 28 minutes. They're going to have to do better if they want to win this game here. But I think that they're on a roll. I think they're starting to believe in themselves. And Minnesota might have some doubts again here. Six points, that's a lot in an NFL game here. I'm calling for the upset. Level 2 lock on a Thursday. Minnesota wins 28-25, but the Lions cover.”
24-28 — Vikings beat Lions 28-24, only a 4-point margin, so Detroit +6 covers (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Lance McCullers, Jr., over 5.5 strikeouts, plus 105 versus Tampa Bay. Break this one down for us. Okay, so the last couple weeks of the season, I usually cut down on the number of plays, Major League Baseball, because you don't know the lineups. A lot of these teams are putting in younger players. And then the favorites, sometimes we see these favorites. I mean, they would normally be like a minus 200. They go to minus three or 300, just too high. So let's look at a player prop here. The Houston Astros clinched the AL West the other night, and they've been dealing with some injuries. So you might not see the best players suit up for this one, but you will see Lance McCullers who is still on his way back to full strength pitch here I think the Astros want to stretch him out here as much as possible going into the postseason they're slowly letting him get to his pitch count here maximums first few starts ahead of him in the low 80s and 90s and now he thrown over 95 pitches in each of his last three starts so I think he going to last as long as possible here With those increases in pitches per start his strikeouts are going up He has 7, 6, and 11 strikeouts, last three appearances, and he's looking better with each start. His curveball movement is almost where it should be. And now he's going to be facing a raised lineup, while some people might not know it, has the eighth highest whiff rate, the 12th highest K rate and the fourth highest total number of strikeouts here against Wrighties this season. So the Rays are still dealing with their injury problems and just have too much boom or bust potential here. I think Lance McCullers Jr. takes advantage of that here. So we're going to go with a player prop. Lance McCullers Jr. over five and a half strikeouts plus 105.”
5-2 — Astros beat Rays 5-2; Lance McCullers Jr. threw 7 IP with 8 strikeouts, clearing the over 5.5 line (ESPN box score). (Lance McCullers Jr.: 8 strikeouts)
“Ben online.net live for this one. Tennessee minus 11 versus the Gators. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so Vols quarterback Hinton Hooker playing at a really high level right now. No picks in the first three games, but those games were against Vol State, Akron, and okay, Pitts decent. If you're buying Tennessee now, it's like buying crypto, in my opinion, at a tight, probably not sustainable. Florida at an all-time low here if they were a stock. After they beat Utah, they lose at home to Kentucky, and then they barely beat AAC members South Florida. Anthony Richardson can only play better than the last two weeks here. They're being respected here. Tennessee's biggest win last two years was against number 18 Kentucky, and they did it 45-42, went by three points here. This line is an 11-point line. That is crazy. Just think of what the lines here have been the last couple games they played. Last two years, the Gators were a 17-and-a-half and a 19-point favorite, and the Gators almost covered both of them. They did cover the one last year. The one before that, they would have covered except for a late backdoor touchdown. So remember, this is a rivalry game here. And the underdog in this game, Florida, has won the game outright 16 of the last 17 times here. This is way too high to spread here. I think Tennessee might win something like 34-28, but I'm taking all those 11 gorgeous points here. I like Florida. Wrong team favorite, Florida Gators, taking the points against the Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday.”
33-38 — Tennessee beat Florida 38-33, only a 5-point margin, so Florida +11 covers (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Bills minus five versus the Miami Dolphins. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so the Dolphins have a big advantage here. Short week for Buffalo. And you think, okay, well, maybe this is the Dolphins' time. But they've got to face Josh Allen. How good has Josh Allen been? 52 for 69. First two weeks, seven touchdowns, two interceptions. and throw in another 66 more yards rushing here. The Bills have dominated here, the Dolphins, by a combined 57-18 score last year. I think the Dolphins are making things up. I think that they're making inroads here. They've got two home run hitters at wide receiver. But Micah Hyde and Jordan Poirier, the best safety combo, in my opinion, in the NFL. They play the deep ball extremely well. And I think the Dolphins are going to have to dink and dunk down the field if they want to score here. Whereas Buffalo, two, three, four plays. That's how Josh Allen rolls here. So Dolphins gave up 8.8 yards of play versus the Ravens. I just think throwing down Josh Allen is going to be too tough a task here. So, hey, I'm rooting for the Dolphins. I just don't see it. Buffalo 34-24 over Miami here. Blowout special.”
19-21 — Dolphins beat Bills 21-19 on the 'butt punt' game, so the Bills ML pick loses (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. San Diego minus 115 for St. Louis with the take back being plus 105. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, it's just like a lot of other playoff contenders. The Padres are trying to figure out their rotation as we head towards the postseason. Mike Clevenger is another one of those guys, and he's starting to lose his spot quickly. He's 3-4 with a 533 ERA in the second half of the season so far, and he's already given up 15 earned runs and 13 innings in the month of September. He has dealt with a ton of major injuries in his career. I just think it's catching up with him. His slider, which used to be his most dominant pitch, is getting its highest average exit velocity of his career, and he just doesn't have a good enough complementary pitch to make up for right now. and here he has his counterpart, Adam Wainwright, who we have backed early and often all season long. I think the last few weeks of this season are extremely important to him. He knows that the Cardinals could be stuck in a one-game wildcard playoff or a short best-of-five series and just be eliminated here from the playoffs quickly. So he can't take these last few starts for granted. He only has a couple weeks left with the Cardinals team. and he's doing everything he can to come out on top. If you just look at the motivation between these two teams and how they both played the last couple months, you just have to see that the Cardinals are just playing crisper, more motivated baseball. They should be the favorites here. Wrong team favorite St Louis Cardinals here Money line They get the win tonight in the Major League Baseball”
5-0 — Padres beat Cardinals 5-0, so the Cardinals ML pick loses (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Bengals minus 4-1-2 versus the Jets. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so week one, I think the main reason was Joe Burrow, just his timing was off. He didn't play in the preseason. He was split second late on a bunch of passes, and it cost them. Now they end up going into the second week as a 7-7-1-2 point favorite against Dallas. And what was the problem? Well, the old bugaboo, that offensive line. They gave up six sacks to Dallas. Micah Parsons was possessed. I think he might be the best defensive player in the NFL right now. But the good part here for Cincinnati, who are desperate, is they're not going to have to face that guy here for the New York Jets. They only have three sacks in two weeks here. Give the Jets credit. You know, they faced an opponent that relaxed in Cleveland and got the job done. one of the greatest comebacks we've seen. I think the biggest point differential within two minutes left to go in a game in a long, long time. I think maybe even dating back to 2002, I saw something on that. But they're probably still celebrating in New York. But the problem here for the Jets is now they've got to face Cincinnati here. I think Cincinnati's going to start putting it all together. It's not like they're replacing a whole ton of guys, just the offensive line. And I think this will be the week that they come together here. And also Joe Flacco. You're not going to get too many chances to bet against this guy before he retires. So they had no pass rush on him at the end. And, hey, give him credit. He got things done. But counting on him to do it two weeks in a row, I'm not a proponent here. So I'm going to lay the four and a half points. I think this line is going to end up closing six, six and a half here for Cincinnati. I want to jump on this line early here. We're going to go with the blowout special in the NFL on Sunday. Get it early. Get it hot. Cincinnati Bengals over the New York Jets.”
27-12 — Bengals beat Jets 27-12 behind Joe Burrow, a 15-point margin that covers the -4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Brewers and Mets is actually a pick-em game, Lee. Break this one down for us. Yeah the Brewers have played themselves down to two and a half games back of a wild card spot It is desperation time But I think they getting the Mets at a really good situational spot here First and foremost the Mets clinched a playoff spot with their win last night with Max Scherzer on the mound. The whole team was in the locker room celebrating with beers and champagne. And I think this organization is just relieved to get over the hump and back in postseason. They're not going to be focused here, and they're probably not even going to play most of their starters aside from that. The other thing the Mets need to figure out is the bottom of their rotation right now. Carlos Kowasco is one of the three guys fighting for that last spot in the postseason rotation, and it has not gone well this year, particularly on the road. He's 15-6 with a .370 ERA, but he's just 6-4 with a .440 ERA away from Citi Field. and against teams with winning records. Get this, 4-4 with a mind-boggling 670 ERA. I don't see this Mets offense picking things up behind them tonight either. They're facing a lefty in Aaron Ashby tonight, and they rank just 17th here in OPS against left-handed pitching. The Brewers handle this one easily. Level 2 lock, Milwaukee Brewers tonight.”
5-7 — Mets beat Brewers 7-5 on a Francisco Lindor grand slam, so the Brewers pick'em pick loses (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. Tennessee plus 10 versus Buffalo. break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so let's look at the NFL yesterday. There were some teams that looked like they were going to be big favorites and win easy. Cleveland, lose outright to the Jets. Then we had some others. I mean, some teams, we figured, hey, Indianapolis, they're going to win easy. The Rams, they won laying big points against Atlanta. What happened there? They're laying 10 points. They don't cover. They only win the game by four points Cincinnati, I mean, laying seven and a half points was the closing line against Dallas. They lose outright. Denver laying 10. They don't cover. The bookies were cleaning up. The only big favor they covered was the Green Bay Packers. Now we've got another, and we've got the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo Bills, my opinion, best team in the NFL, best personnel, playing the best football. But 10 points is a lot in the NFL. Still, there's some talented players out there. You know Tennessee, I mean, they are so upset at themselves how they blew that lead last week. Now they come in and play Buffalo. They've got to travel there. I think they've got a shot. I'm not saying they're going to win the game outright, but Ryan Tannehill can move a lot more than Matthew Stafford. So I think he's going to make some plays here. I think Buffalo, hey, there's no way that they're going to go into this game thinking, hey, this is the biggest game of the season. So just the way I looking you read human nature here sometimes the ebbs and flows of the NFL I think Ryan Tannehill is going to have a big game here I going to take the Tennessee Titans plus the 10 points against the Buffalo Bills”
7-41 — Bills routed Titans 41-7, a 34-point margin that busts the Titans +10 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Braves minus one and a half runs, minus 150 versus the Nationals. Thoughts on this one, Lee? The Braves, I mean, it's important for them to win this division title. They've only lost four games the entire season, and this is September 19th, so they are rolling right now. They have Kyle Wright on the hill. This kid's been a revelation. 18-5 with a 318 ERA. He pitches ahead in the count. Very important. If you're following baseball, most important thing, throw a strike the first pitch. You're ahead of the count, 0-1. Batter has to be defensive. He doesn't know what's going to be coming, and that's what Kyle Wright does. Fields his position well. Team believes in him. Now he's going to face a Washington team in Corey Abbott. Not one of the better pitchers. 0-2, 4-37 ERA. And then if they have to go to the bullpen, they have the worst ERA in the entire major leagues at 5.03. Nothing's going right for Washington. They've got no power hitting since they lost Soto and Bell. This is a blowout. And how about this? The Atlanta Braves, when they're laying one and a half runs, they won at least those games by over 80% of the time here. We're laying the one and a half runs here with the Atlanta Braves minus 150. Blowout special over the hapless Washington Nationals.”
5-2 — Braves beat Nationals 5-2, a 3-run margin that covers the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Eagles minus 2.5 versus those Vikings. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, one thing I like a lot with the Philadelphia Eagles is their offensive line. Everyone talks about skilled players, and the Eagles have some nice skilled players. But the difference is they have a great run-blocking offensive line. Had over 200 rushing yards last week, and you control the line of scrimmage. You're going to win a lot of games. and then they're going to face a Minnesota team that laid low all preseason, showed absolutely nothing, didn't even in some cases show some formations that they used in that week one game against Green Bay. If you listen to the Green Bay defensive backs, they were like shell-shocked after that game. They're like, we didn't even see eight of those ten plays that they hit on some big plays during the preseason. So I just think that great game planning by Minnesota. Give them credit. Now that there's some film out on them, I think it's going to help the Philadelphia defense. So Jalen Hurts, that dual threat quarterback, he's got some receivers now. Him and A.J. Brown look like they've been hooking up for years together here. We're going to go with a lock. We're going to start the week off with a level one lock. Philadelphia Eagles over the Minnesota Vikings tonight.”
24-7 — Eagles beat Vikings 24-7, a 17-point margin that covers the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Red Sox, minus one and a half runs, minus 105 versus the Royals. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah. So, Q, the Red Sox will soon join the Kansas City Royals and a group of teams eliminated from playoff contention. But if they found one hidden gem in their starting rotation this season, it's Michael Walker. Here is a guy, 31 years old, coming off the two worst seasons in his career. And the moment he signed a deal with the Red Sox, he found something again. I don't know how he did it, but he's now 11-1 this season with a 269 ERA. And his splits have been incredible. 5-1 with a 179 ERA at Fenway Park and 5-0 record with a 270 ERA since the All-Star break. He doesn't throw a single pitch. more than 35% of the time, but he mixes his fastball changeup combo and his cutter and his sinker together really well He faced the Royals before and done well The Royals just I mean they rank bottom 10 as everyone suspected in just about every category on the road, batting average, OPS, home runs, and strikeout ratio. Royals fans have to watch Jonathan Heasley here. It's just not been a fun thing to do is to watch this kid 3-8 and his 17 starts with a 551 ERA and a 563 expected ERA. So it hasn't been a fluke against teams with losing records, though he's even worse, 1-3 with a 638 ERA. Don't expect the Red Sox to let up on the gas here just because they're out of the playoff race. They want to keep the season going here for Michael Walker. I think it's an absolute blowout special. Boston Red Sox minus the one and a half runs minus 105 big win big blowout win over the Kansas City”
2-1 — Red Sox beat Royals 2-1, a 1-run margin that falls short of the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“bet online.net live for this one Sabatini minus 180 for his Action Jackson break this one down for us Lee okay so when I look at this fight if you just look at records, you would think that Action Jackson is probably the guy. He's been around longer, 34 years old. He was in the UFC and ended up coming back. But here's a guy that I just don't think he can beat a high-level fighter, a guy that is constantly busy. And in my opinion, I think Sabatini, his output, much more than Damon Jackson. his uh striking ability better his takedown defense much better um wrestling better and his submission game certainly better so i think pat sabatini is on the rise some guys they hit that 30 31 age uh and they just everything comes in together and it's come together for pat sabatini i think damon jackson's on the way down at 34 here and like said i think different level fighters here. I thought this line was going to be minus 300, minus 350. Get on it now. I think it's going to rise by the time this fight goes off here. It's the main fight of the preliminaries. So probably take place about 630 Eastern time. Pat Sabatini, minus 180 over Damon. I'm not even going to say his nickname. Jackson here. Blowout special in the UFC fight night on Saturday night.”
Damon Jackson defeated Pat Sabatini by TKO (punches) at 1:09 of round one at UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song (Sept 17, 2022), so the Sabatini ML pick loses (Wikipedia event page). (Damon Jackson def. Pat Sabatini, TKO (punches), Round 1, 1:09)
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Air Force minus 16.5 versus Wyoming. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so we've got two college football games tonight. And I think one of them I can certainly find an edge. And it's the Air Force game against Wyoming. So this might be Air Force's best team, believe it or not, since 1985, when they rose all the way to number four in the polls. There is a shot they could go undefeated. They're my sleeper team from a non-Power 5 conference team to do it. Cincinnati did it last year. I don't know if they can get into the Final Four. They go undefeated, but this team is really good. And who's their best player? A fullback. Under, I mean, this guy's undersized, Brad Roberts. A lot of people, when you think about fullbacks, You think about like bruisers. You're thinking about, you know, guys that are 6'1", 6'2", you know, like 225, 235. He's all a 5'11", 205. But he's powerful. He is a breakaway threat. In fact, last year he gained 1,356 yards, scored 13 touchdowns, and as a fullback averaged 4.5 yards per carry. This year he already has 174 yards. And he's come out early. He hasn't even played into the fourth quarter of either game here. They put up 435 rushing yards on Colorado. They have 206 more rushing yards per game than the number two rushing team in the country, Minnesota. And they've held an average of 38 minutes, almost 39 minutes of time of possession out of 60 minutes in both contests that they've played. This Wyoming team is 2-1, but this is one of the worst Wyoming teams. They were gutted by transfers. Guys hit the transfer portal here. Also, Air Force has a veteran big play defense, and the Flyboys, they love to travel. 5-1 against the spread the last six games. They're on a 12-6 against the spread run here. Let's go with the Flyboys here. Air Force 38-14 over Wyoming. This is going to be a level two lock.”
14-17 — Wyoming beat Air Force 17-14, so the Air Force ML pick loses (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Ravens minus 3.5 versus Dolphins. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so I think I know the Dolphins pretty well, And their offensive line is a pretty much still work in progress. So they might be without their right tackle for this game. And it looks like the Ravens will be out with their starting left tackle for this game, Ronnie Stanley. But, and I heard some national shows people talking about they don't have many backups. Well, they don't study the Baltimore Ravens also like I do. This kid named Patrick McCurry. This kid, McCurry, can play any of the five positions. They signed him to a long-term contract because he does everything well. Smart kid, too, very rarely gets penalties. So I think they're going to be fine there. I think that Lamar Jackson's going to have a big game here against this Miami defense. Miami rarely faces a dual-threat quarterback. They faced a stationary Matt Jones last week. So it's a completely different style. And how good has Baltimore been against Miami? They've covered and won nine of the last ten games here. We're going to go with a level three lock all the way up here. Baltimore Ravens, unfortunately, over Miami Dolphins here, 27-17.”
38-42 — Dolphins beat Ravens 42-38 in a comeback led by Tua Tagovailoa, so the Ravens ML pick loses (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline line for this one We going to roll Under 7 runs minus 115 Mets and Pirates break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so this is one of the craziest stats you're ever going to see all year. JT Brubaker, tonight's starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates, has a .388 ERA on the road in 2022. too. That is top 20 in the National League and best among all Pirates starting pitchers. But he is 0-7 in those 14 starts. So you're almost never going to see a guy with such a good ERA going winless on the road for an entire season. But this provides some obvious insight into the Pirates team. The offense is downright awful. The Pirates offense has scored just 34 runs and all of Brubaker's 14 road starts combined. He's getting just 2.42 runs per game in support behind him when they take to the road. And he can't win these games despite being so good on the road. And if you're worried about the Mets offense carrying this game over on their own, just look at their last few games. Six combined runs against the Cubs, some offensive firepower against the Marlins, but nine total runs against the Nationals in three games, and then just one good performance against the Pirates team earlier in the month. The Mets team just can't pull away from bad teams lately, and it might just cost them in the end the NL East. I'm going to take the full game under seven and a half runs here, minus 115 New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates. It's my hidden gem.”
7-1 — Mets beat Pirates 7-1 (combined 8 runs), pushing the total over the 7.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Betonline.net line for this one. Tampa Bay minus three versus Saints. Little division rival game going on here. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Tom Brady. So as good as he's been against everyone, he has had trouble against the Saints since he's come over from the Patriots to play for Tampa Bay. Just one and four straight up and against the spread. And get this, eight touchdowns and eight interceptions in those five games. So going to be going up against, I think, one of the most underrated defense in the Saints. On offense, the Saints, Jameis Winston started slow, but he rallied his team from that 26 to 10 deficit early in the fourth quarter to a 27 26 win with that field goal late in the game I just think here that both defenses are ahead of the offenses I like the fact that they kept the continuity with the Saints They moved Dennis Allen, former defensive coordinator, up to head coach. They'll keep a lot of his principles on defense here. The defense is pretty much the same from last year, and so is the offense. Pete Carmichael stayed on as the offensive coordinator, and they added some weapons. I mean, and all of a sudden, Michael Thomas is healthy. Chris Alabi at receiver here. I mean, Alvin Kamara is healthy again. And how about this? The last 52 games that the Saints have played in as an underdog, they have covered 67% of them here. Wrong team favored. New Orleans Saints probably upset at home 24-23 over the Tampa Bay Bucs.”
20-10 — Buccaneers beat Saints 20-10, so the Saints ML pick loses (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Eagles minus two versus the Vikings. Break this one down for us, Lee. So these are two teams that I really love coming into the season. Both, I thought, look really good opening week. And I love what the Vikings did. They were laying low all preseason. Look at some of these new head coaches like head coach Kevin O'Connell here from Minnesota Vikings. He's swung some new, never seen formations and plays on Green Bay. And if you heard some of the interviews of the Green Bay defensive players after the game they had no idea what was coming But I think Philadelphia will be able to adjust some after seeing some game tape and getting an idea of the way Minnesota is going to want to challenge teams here. Ground and pound for Philadelphia behind one of their best offensive lines in the NFL. Produced 214 rushing yards last week. I think they're going to be one of the better running teams. and Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown, they were clicking opening day. I just think that this Philadelphia team, a little more well-rounded here, can't trust Kirk Cousins here on the road without the surprise element here. I'm going with Philly here. Level unlock, Philadelphia Eagles 27-20 over the Minnesota Vikings.”
24-7 — Eagles beat Vikings 24-7, so the Eagles ML pick wins (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline line for this one The Brewers minus 120 with the take back being plus 110 Break this one down for us Lee Yeah, so we talked about it when it happened, but I really do think the trade of Josh Hader ruined the Milwaukee Brewers team this season. Since the trade deadline, they're 19 and 20 in 39 games, and they have gone from leading the NL Central by two games to trailing this Cardinals team by seven games. One of their biggest problems, aside from the bullpen, is Corbin Burns. Believe it or not, this guy was up there with the big guns as an NL Cy Young candidate at one point. But in the second half, he's just 3-2 with a 447 ERA, including giving up eight dingers in just 52 innings. He has looked downright awful and has come against some really bad teams. He gave up five runs to the Pirates, five runs to the Diamondbacks, and even three to the Twins. Now he has to face the hottest team in baseball since the All-Star break, including their starter, Adam Wainwright. Talked about this guy, what he's been to this team at home. He continues to dominate at Bush Stadium with a .263 ERA, and the Cardinals are 5-2 in his last seven starts in St. Louis. If this pitching matchup turns out the way I expect it to, are you really going to back the awful Brewers offense to bring them back late in the game against a Cardinals bullpen that has three guys throwing over 100 miles per hour? I'm not. Take the underdog here. The books made a big mistake. Wrong team favorite. St. Louis Cardinals money line plus 110 tonight over the Milwaukee Brewers.”
STL 4, MIL 1 — Cardinals beat Brewers 4-1 as Adam Wainwright earned the win; the Cardinals moneyline (+110) wins outright (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Georgia minus 24.5 points versus South Carolina. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so I underrated Georgia a little bit when you do your evaluations. When I watched that game against Oregon, I'm like, at halftime, there is no chance that the Ducks are coming back. So you have to move on. I thought that the Georgia offense would be good, but they can score with anyone this year. They are that good. And I not just talking about their line You know their quarterback keeps getting better They plugged in new running backs and they just as good or better And the receivers are much better. And they have the best tight end room in the country. They've got three guys that can start on almost any team. Now, the Gamecocks quarterback Spencer Rattler so far has been underwhelming. Two touchdowns, three interceptions. He is who we thought he was, not who his dad and the rest of his family have told us he was. and the people evaluated and put him as a five-star. I never thought he was a five-star. How about this? Even without him last year, they scored 13-14, and they got goose-egged versus the three ranked opponents. They also can't run and stop the run. So they lost two key starters on defense in the game last week that will be out, looks like, for the season. So I do think, remember, Georgia's defensive coordinator will must champ. Remember, he coached five years, well, almost five years in Columbia. He's going to bring the heat here. And trips to Williams-Brice Stadium have been pretty easy for Georgia. They've won and covered the last three there. So the visitors even 6-0 against the spread in this series. Georgia is the new number one team and they want to stay there. They do it big time here. 45-17. A low-out special. Georgia Bulldogs over the South Carolina Gamecocks.”
UGA 48, SC 7 — Georgia beat South Carolina 48-7; Georgia wins outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Penn State is minus three versus Auburn. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so Auburn is stepping way up in class here. They've had two what I call pillow fights so far this year against Mercer and San Jose State. And you need to be able to throw it real well like Purdue, Penn State's first opponent, or run real well, like Michigan State last year behind Kenneth Walker, to dent this Penn State defense. Last year, only Ohio State and Michigan State scored about 24 points on this unit. They held Michigan to 21, and Arkansas, which was explosive last year, to 24. Just think that Auburn running game 57th running game versus nobody isn impressing me and TJ Finley is just not the guy They going to have to go out and find someone I think it going to be a long season for them Finley is just pedestrian. Penn State is also 13-7 as a road favorite the last 20 times in this setting here. I like Penn State here. We're going to make it a level two lock, laying the three points against Auburn on Saturday.”
PSU 41, AUB 12 — Penn State beat Auburn 41-12 behind its freshman running backs; Penn State's 29-point margin clears the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.net line for this one, we're going to look at the Angels' first five innings money line plus 105 versus the Guardians. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, I knew this was going to absolutely shock you here, Q, because we've been going against the Angels, it seems like, now for so, so long, probably two, three months. So it's starting to look like the Cleveland Guardians offense here has dried up, though. That's why we're looking at this game. They scored just 37 runs in the 11 games in September and this team rarely strikes out They have the best strikeout weight in all of baseball offensively but a big but Just because they making contact does not mean they making solid contact They still rank dead last in hard hit percentage, last in barrel percentage, and fifth worst in expected slugging percentage. So if you're hitting bloopers and walking in runs the first six months of the season, that is eventually going to regress on you. And it's looking like that's what's happening here for the Cleveland Indians here over the last week and a half. So great spot here. We're going to go the LA Angels here. First five innings, money line, plus 105. Wrong team favorite.”
LAA 1, CLE 1 (through 5 innings) — The Angels and Guardians were tied 1-1 after five completed innings (Cleveland went on to win 3-1); a first-5-innings moneyline pick pushes when the score is tied through 5 (ESPN box score linescore).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Clemson minus 32 versus La Tech. That's a lot of points there, Lee. Break this one down for us. Yeah, but the games at Clemson and La Tech, they're going to get, I think, absolutely exposed here. Well, they got exposed a little bit in the first game against Missouri. They lost 52-24. Missouri did whatever they wanted on them on that defense, 557 total yards. And you've got to protect the quarterback when you play Clemson. I think they might have the best defensive line. Missouri, which absolutely got thrashed by Kansas State. Kansas State ran all over them. They gave up four sacks in that game to the Missouri defensive line. Just imagine what possibly the best defensive line in college football is going to do here. And then you have two quarterbacks trying to fight it out to see who ends up getting that starting role down the road. So just think that D.J. Ugulele, I think that he's starting to come on. Also looking at his backup, who I like a lot, Cade Kluvenik. I think he's going to be a star. So, hey, they're not going to let up once they get the lead here. Sometimes you've got to lay it if you want to play it. Blowout special, Clemson big over Louisiana Tech on Saturday.”
Clemson 48, Louisiana Tech 20 — Clemson beat Louisiana Tech 48-20; Clemson's 28-point margin falls short of the -32 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. We going to roll Yankees Red Sox over eight runs Minus 110 a little totals play here Lee break this one down for us Yeah I know a ton of people are watching football this weekend and probably missed it but one of the biggest running storylines over the last month in baseball was the New York Yankees sudden struggling offensively. Well, I think they broke out of it on Saturday and Sunday as they scored 20 runs in two games and took the series win over Tampa Bay. Well, now they get Nick Pavetta and the Boston Red Sox. Pabetta has a horrible .476 ERA at home this season, along with a .485 ERA against teams with winning records. He has also been taken out of his last three starts before reaching his sixth inning, meaning that the Red Sox bullpen, which ranks 25th in ERA in the last month, will likely have to extend itself here quite a bit. On the other hand, Garrett Cole just doesn't like to pitch at Finway Park. He's 2-3, believe it or not, with an era here of 545 in his seven career starts at Fenway. And during this month of August, how about this is inconsistency. He's 1-5. I think you can count here on three to four runs from Boston. But don't be surprised if the Yankees cover this total by themselves here. Over eight runs, minus 110. And the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees game, level three lock.”
NYY 7, BOS 6 — Yankees beat Red Sox 7-6 in 10 innings on two Aaron Judge homers; the combined 13 runs clears Over 8 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Blue Jays, minus 145 with the take back being plus 135 for the Rays. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, these two teams right now are battling. It's really come down to three teams battling for two spots. We've got Toronto and Tampa Bay here and Seattle. So half games separate these three teams, and it's going to be a lot of fun. I think all three deserve to be in, and one team's going to be on the outside looking in when it's all over. But in this matchup tonight, this is huge. You have a Toronto team that is starting the worst pitcher that they've got, and Tampa Bay is starting a guy that has one career appearance in Major League Baseball. But, big but here, Tampa Bay has been doing this for years. Every year you see they bring on someone a couple weeks before the end of the season and they become a big piece in their playoff push So they find these diamonds in the rough polish them as prospects and turn them into serviceable starters here at the Major League Baseball level when they need them most. I have no problem with a short start out of a new guy and a long bullpen show here for the Rays the rest of the game. But on the other side, we've got Jose Barrios. He has been struggling for Toronto no matter how you look at it. So he's 10-5, but he is a 523 ERA. That's the third worst among all qualifying pitchers in baseball right now. He's the most inconsistent starter I've seen all year. He just can't string together two good starts in a row. He's had some good starts in the second half, but his bad starts were so bad that he still has an ERA here sitting at 524 after the All-Star break. Some Toronto writers and fans think he has turned a corner here, But I'm going to have to see it to believe it. Until then, I think Berrios or this Toronto bullpen should never be this highly favored in a playoff-like game here. Wrong team favorite, Toronto Blue Jays, money line, plus 135 here over the Toronto Blue Jays.”
TOR 3, TB 2 — Blue Jays beat Rays 3-2 on a go-ahead 8th-inning homer by Bo Bichette; the Rays moneyline (+135) loses (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. the Mets minus one and a half runs minus 135 versus the Cubs break this one down for us Lee all right so there's all this talk this season about Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom but Chris Bassett has been the most reliable solid piece of this starting rotation all year with all the injuries uh for the Mets rotation so he's six and one with a 228 ERA in the second half of the season He's been magnificent at Citi Field here. And the Mets have won all of his last eight starts, winning seven of those by two or more runs. I'm beginning to think the Mets lineup is turning things back around offensively. And they're getting a rookie pitcher here in Javier Assad that has only made three appearances at the major league level. that's not a good matchup against a team that grinds out at bats and forces long sequences more than anyone else in baseball take the mets in their bullpen here to shut down chicago's offense uh new york mets here minus one and a half runs minus 135 low out special over the chicago cubs”
CHC 5, NYM 2 — Cubs beat Mets 5-2, chasing Mets starter Chris Bassitt before the 4th inning; New York's -1.5 run line loses outright (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Broncos minus six and a half versus those Seahawks. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Can you imagine if this trade never happened? I mean, like, half the people that are watching this game tonight would not be watching. No, no. No one's watching to see Drew Locke here, you know, against Russell Wilson if he was still playing with Seattle. Seattle was just going nowhere. And, hey, give them credit. They realized it. They're retooling. I think they're just playing for a top draft pick next year to find that quarterback to just totally reload. But I think that they're in real trouble here tonight. I just think that Geno Smith is a journeyman. I think that Geno Smith, even though he's got some weapons at receiver, Kenneth Walker, their top draft pick at running back, They thought he was going to be the guy. He's going to be out. It looks like a couple more weeks. And without, I think, a consistent running game, they're going to have trouble here. Denver's defense, we know, is solid. And now they finally have Russell Wilson. That's what they've been missing. I watched them last year, and I just thought that Russell Wilson was not motivated. He was missing some defenses. I mean, he was misreading things that if he was studying the game hard, he would have picked up and he would have taken advantage of it. So he was just disinterested. He knew it was over. And I think he's motivated again. I'm not saying he's going to have three or four great seasons, but I think he's going to be really good this year. So he knows how to attack Seattle. He knows their defense. He knows their personnel. So I think the advantage is with Russell Wilson tonight. I'm going to lay the six and a half. We're going to get off to a fast start. Don't overthink this. And then on top of that, Seattle, two rookie offensive tackles. You can't get by in the first game. Whenever you see this, you take advantage of it. Two rookie tackles against this kind of pass rush from Denver here. I think Denver's going to have three, four, maybe five sacks in this game here. We're going to go with a level two lock to start the week. Denver Broncos here over the Seattle Seahawks.”
SEA 17, DEN 16 — Seahawks beat Broncos 17-16 on Monday Night Football after Denver missed a key field goal; the Broncos -6.5 spread loses outright (ESPN game recap).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Kansas State minus 7.5 versus Missouri. Break this one down for us, Lee. You know, Kansas State was not a passing juggernaut before Adrian Martinez came over from Nebraska, and they won't all of a sudden become one now. I just don think it going to matter It might matter against some teams down the line that stack the box but even with some transfers that were using the portal and some JUCO guys Missouri's rush defense gave up 5.3 yards per carry last year. In fact, one game against a team that's more of a passing team, Tennessee, Tennessee ran for over 400 yards on this Missouri run defense here, and I think it'll be a little bit better, but I don't think they're great. And Kansas State has maybe one of the best running backs in the country in Deuce Vaughn. Missouri picked up a new defensive coordinator, Blake Baker. I'm not enthralled with this guy. This guy was at Louisiana Tech and then was at Miami for less than two years. Did not do a good job. So they've got a problem. They're matching up in special teams. People don't talk about special teams enough. Kansas State has the number eight special teams in the country last year. They should be just as good this year. and Mizzou, they are just not a traveler as a road underdog. Just two and four against the spread the last two years here. I think Kansas City doubles up Missouri 35-17. Blowout special.”
KSU 40, MIZ 12 — Kansas State beat Missouri 40-12; Kansas State wins outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. the Astros minus one and a half runs minus 105 versus the Angels. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so looking through the Angels depth chart right now, Michael Lorenzen is the 16th, that's right, 16th pitcher to make a start for the Angels this season. He actually pitched well in his first couple of weeks this season, but he has fallen off of a cliff. In his last six appearances, he's given up a batting average of 287. He is in the ERA sitting at 7.58, and the team is 1-5 with three of those five losses coming by multiple runs. He also just faced his Houston lineup in the last appearance all the way back on July 1st. He didn't pitch well in that one, gave up eight runs in three innings on just 70 pitches before he got to yank. while the Angels have flipped between 16 starters throughout the season, Lance McCullers Jr. is one of just eight guys to start a game for the Houston Astros. So far, he's finally back. He had a forearm and tendon injury. McCullers looks like his old self. Remember last year when the Astros were without Verlander, this guy was their ace in the postseason before his injury. He has a 2-0 ADRA in four starts this season, and then two of those four starts came at home where he hasn't allowed a single run in 11 innings. I think this line is priced way too low for a guy that would be the number one on almost any other staff. Take the Astros here in blowout fashion. Houston Astros minus one and a half runs minus 105 over the lowly Angels”
HOU 4, LAA 3 — Astros beat Angels 4-3 on homers by Jeremy Pena and Chas McCormick; Houston's 1-run margin falls short of the -1.5 run line (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Volunteers minus 6.5 versus Pitt. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, these two teams have the same amount of rest. Nine days for this game. But Pitt is off playing that backyard emotional brawl game against West Virginia where, I mean, if they would have ruled that a catch for West Virginia at the half-yard line with 22 seconds to go, they might still be playing overtime. So UT hardly broke a sweat in their easy win here. So if you remember back to last year's game, it was Josh Heupel's second game as head coach for Tennessee. They had to face Kenny Pickett in one of his finest moments. He was on fire the whole game, put up 41 points on the Tennessee defense. Tennessee was minus three in turnovers in that game, and they only lost by seven points. And get this, people rarely talk about this guy anywhere. I haven't heard his name in maybe a year. Joe Milton started that game and was yanked late in the second quarter for Hendon Hooker, and they've never looked back since. So the ball's past these. Still not a championship level, but improved since last year. And remember, West Virginia, they get off bottom five number of plays. They wait until there two three seconds sometimes a second to go before the clock runs out and they get a delay of game penalty before they snap the ball Tennessee number one in the nation last year and getting plays off at warp speed here I think Tennessee is going to exact that revenge. Tennessee, 38-28 over Pitt here. Level two lock.”
TENN 34, PITT 27 — Tennessee beat Pittsburgh 34-27 in overtime behind 325 passing yards from Hendon Hooker; Tennessee wins outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“the bet online net line for this one Sonny Gray over four and a half strikeouts minus 120 in the Twins versus Yankees game break this one down for us Lee yeah the Twins I mean they just can beat the Yankees Yankees have dominated the head series here at Yankee Stadium They won 44 the last 54 when they match up against each other and they also took both games yesterday as part of that doubleheader. Even though I think these teams are much more evenly matched than the line suggests, I'm just not going to play the game here. I'm going to bet on Sonny Gray here instead. So Sonny Gray has a .310 ERA and 21 starts this year. 101 strikeouts and 105 innings pitch, and he has 44 strikeouts in his last eight starts. He has gone over this prop in six of his last eight appearances. He's also facing a Yankees lineup here that has really struggled with swings and misses since their struggles began. And for the entire year, the Yankees ranked 15th in baseball in strikeouts, but they have the sixth highest strikeout rate in the American League since the start of August. And you look at Sonny Gray's arsenal, and he has a solid fastball, a sinker with great movement, and two off-speed pitches that he can really go to in any count, which most pitchers don't have. So with the bullpens being exhausted yesterday after that doubleheader, I think he's going to have to stay in the game a bit longer than usual here. Also, I think this one is a perfect hidden gem here. Sonny Gray, pitcher for the Minnesota Twins, over four and a half strikeouts, minus 120.”
MIN 4, NYY 3 — Sonny Gray struck out 7 over 6.0 innings as the Twins beat the Yankees 4-3 on a Carlos Correa homer; Gray clears Over 4.5 strikeouts (ESPN box score). (Sonny Gray: 7 strikeouts)
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Trailblazer, minus 190 versus D. Rod. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right. So when I look at these two fighters here, and they're fighting actually in a 180-pound catchweight fight, these are normally 170 pound fighters but this fight was put together two weeks ago and if you remember Kevin Trailblazer Holland was an 185 pound fighter so by the time they put the weight back on after the weigh-ins I think he'll be the bigger fighter here also owns here a seven inch reach advantage 81 inches to 74 inches here Rodriguez has power but he's wild also Also coming off a broken hand in his last fight to Kevin Lee. He started training, and he broke it again, so he had to have surgery twice. So I don't think we're going to see improvement since his last fight over a year ago. And Kevin Holland used to play around and mock his opponent and play to the crowd, but he stopped all that. I think he learned his lesson the last couple fights here. More variety of attack. He can kick. He can punch. More accurate also in his striking. and a top-level submission artist here. Blowout special here. This one could end maybe by the end of the first, early second round here. We're going with Kevin Holland. Moneyline minus 190 here over Daniel D Rodriguez here Blowout special”
After Khamzat Chimaev missed weight against Nate Diaz, UFC 279's card was reshuffled: Kevin Holland fought Chimaev instead (lost by 1st-round submission) and Daniel Rodriguez fought Li Jingliang, so the named Holland-vs-Rodriguez matchup never took place (Wikipedia, citing official UFC 279 results).
- LA Rams +8.5
- Minnesota Vikings +7.5
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Buffalo minus two and a half versus the Rams and Green Bay minus one and a half versus the Vikings. Break this two teams, six point teaser brown down for us, Lee. OK, so, you know, a lot of times we're going to give out just a side on the game. And there's so many different ways. That's what makes betting and football so interesting. You don't have to bet a side if you think it's right near the line. You don't have to bet the total if you don't like the total. If you think that's close, you can go with a two team six point teaser. So in college football, I never play them. I can't remember. Maybe it was seven, eight years ago since I played the last college football teaser. Why? Because points are cheap. You see a lot of 55, 48 games in college football. But in the NFL, you don't see those type of shootouts. You don't see 50 to 40 games almost never. So why do I like a two-team, six-point teaser? Well, hey, I think the first game is going to be really close. So you have the Rams, Super Bowl champions, at home getting two and a half points. You have Buffalo, a team that had the best point differential last year at plus 194. If they won the coin toss in that game against Kansas City, I think they win that game. Now they had Von Miller, Shaq Lawson. They're going to have a better pass rush, but they are missing their cornerback, injured Traverius White. white he's going to miss the first four games coming back from acl surgery so that might hurt him i don't know if they have anyone that can cover cooper cup i don't know if any team can cover this guy this guy had 145 catches for an astounding a hunt 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns last year and came up with so many big catches in the super bowl i think this game going to be decided by one play maybe even the last drive So why take a chance and lose a game by a half a point, a point, two points, something like that. I'm going to take the Rams and they're getting two and a half points. I'm going to tease them up to eight and a half points. Now you have to have another side to go with the teaser. And I think you got another game that's going to be tight. It's the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings. How close were the Vikings games last year? Well, they had a league-leading 14 one-score games last year with 10 of those games that weren't even decided until the final play here. I love Justin Jefferson. You know, he has the most receiving yards in his first two years as a receiver in NFL history, and that was with a very conservative head coach. Now you've got Kevin O'Connell, more of an offensive coach here. And Green Bay, you know, without star Devontae Adams, who knows what they're going to be. And then even two of their best linemen are a game-time decision here. So another game I think comes down to the wire. That's Minnesota's M.O. here. They're getting one-and-a-half points. Let's tease them up to seven-and-a-half. So a two-team, six-point teaser where we're going to go with Minnesota plus seven and a half and the LA Rams plus eight and a half level three lock all the way up two days in a row”
Bills beat Rams 31-10 (Rams lost by 21, missing the +8.5 teaser number) and Vikings beat Packers 23-7 (covers +7.5); since a teaser requires every leg to hit, the Rams leg busting the bet is lost overall (ESPN box scores).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Guardians minus 135 with the take back being plus 125 for the Royals. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yes, so we had the under last night, and it was a wire-to-wire easy winner. Now we're going to take a side. So the Cleveland Guardians are not right now in a good spot. They've lost five of the last seven. Zach Plesak, one of the surprise starters this year, broke his hand, punching the mound the other night after allowing a home run. So this has forced rookie Cody Morrison onto the mound much earlier than they had hoped, and it just hasn't gone well. Morris gave up three runs in two innings in his career debut to the Mariners, and his ERA sits at nine after one career start. If you're going to force that bullpen into another stretched-out game, I think they're in trouble because the Guardians relievers have thrown out 13 and a third combined innings in their last three games. That's a lot. He's going to have to face Zach Greinke. Greinke has actually been pretty good this year. 414 ERA that drops to just 198 at home. And only one of his 14 home runs allowed this season has come at Coffman Stadium, which is incredible. The Guardians lineup is familiar with him after facing him for 11 innings this season. But that familiarity, for some reason, hasn't gone well. They've only put together eight hits in one run, total on Grinke in that span. And his one home start against Cleveland was for five shutout innings. Don't be surprised to see another low-scoring affair here. But I'm taking those pesky Royals as the wrong team is favored. Kansas City Royals here Money line Here over Cleveland Wrong team favorite”
KC 2, CLE 1 — Royals beat Guardians 2-1 on a 9th-inning sac fly by Salvador Perez; Royals ML +125 wins outright (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. BYU minus three and a half versus Baylor. Break this one down for us, Lee. So I remember last year's game really well in Waco. I actually didn't give out the game, but I thought BYU could pull off the upset, plus five. But boy, was I wrong. Really important to go over your games and figure out what you did wrong here. And this was one of those games, and there's not many of them, where one team just dominated the line of scrimmage. So what Baylor did was they ran for 303 yards in that game, 6.4 yards per carry to BYU, just 67 yards and 2.8 yards per carry. Can a team totally change what happened from one year to the next? I think it really tough And then on top of that if BYU can run the ball their top two receivers are a game decision I like what Baylor done at quarterback Gary Bohannon, he was okay. But Blake Chapin, the new starter here, he's now going 106 passes without an interception. I like Baylor here. I think the wrong team is favored on Saturday. I'm taking the three-and-a-half points as they go into Provo here and win this game outright, in my opinion, 26-20.”
BYU 26, Baylor 20 — BYU beat Baylor 26-20 in double overtime; Baylor lost outright, so Baylor +3.5 does not cover (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Phillies, minus 155 versus the Marlins. Lee, I know the Marlins are your squad, but break this one down for us. Yeah, they were my squad. It's tough to follow them. It's like you raised this year. Yeah, exactly. So, yeah. All right. So, if you haven't been following the Miami Marlins very much this season, it's because they're awful. Their offense is actually about to accomplish something that hasn't been done since 1972. The Marlins, 574 OPS against left-handed pitching, is on pace to be the worst OPS against lefty pitchers since the 1972 Texas Rangers, 50 years ago. So this team has been about as bad as it gets offensively this year. And the second half hasn been any better at all They have a 191 batting average in their last 28 days And if you go back their last nine games they scored a combined total of 13 runs Their entire front office and coaching staff, in my opinion, needs to go. But it won't be enough to salvage anything this season. They're facing a lefty here in Bailey Falter tonight. And this kid has been pretty good. He has a .408 ERA this season, and he made some changes to his arsenal just before the second half that likely, I think, cemented him in as a swing man in the rotation going into the postseason. But Trevor Rodgers, Miami's only consistent left-handing starter this season, has been about as bad as the offense has been. This kid was an all-star last year and has actually some rookie of the year votes, but all of a sudden his strikeout ratio way up because he just can't strike out anyone here. His slugging percentage allowed his way up, and he's letting up hard contact all over the park. He has a .557 ERA that jumps to .652 in the second half so far, And I'm thinking this is just a lost season for this kid. You hope he can bounce back next year. But against a Phillies lineup that continues to hit homer after homer at home, it's not going to get any better tonight. This one's going to be a blowout. I'm predicting 7-2 here for the Phillies. We're going to go with a level three lock all the way up. Philadelphia Phillies money line minus 159 over the Miami Marlins.”
PHI 4, MIA 3 — Phillies beat Marlins 4-3, with Edmundo Sosa homering and Bailey Falter earning the win; Phillies ML -159 wins outright (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. We're going to roll under seven and a half runs, minus 110 with the Guardians and the Royals. Break this one down for us. Yeah, I don't see where the offense is going to come from on either side of this game here. So Shane Bieber is up to his usual stuff this year with a .306 ERA and even a .288 ERA away from Cleveland so far. But he's not getting any run support at all. The Guardians are 3-7 over the last 10 games, and they've scored only 21 runs in that span, including four shutouts offensively. They'll face up against a guy in Chris Bubak here who has a 5'8", 47 ERA, but he does surprisingly have a pretty competent bullpen in baseball the last 30 days to back him up. The problem for Kansas City is their run support, too. They still rank in the bottom five in all of baseball at home, and they don't have a single guy. Check this out. In the current lineup, above 260 right now, these offenses are both struggling. but there's reason to have faith in the pitching staff here. Take the under seven and a half here in the Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals game. It's my hidden gem.”
KC 1, CLE 4 — Guardians beat Royals 4-1 (ESPN box score); combined 5 runs, under 7.5 covers.
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Rays, money line, minus 155 versus the Red Sox. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, the Tampa Bay Rays are all of a sudden making a push, believe it or not, for the lead in the AL East. We thought the Yankees had pretty much locked it up a month ago but they are struggling Tampa has won 12 of the last 15 and just took two or three here against the Yankees and has really been on the back of some insane pitching They basically only have three starters in the rotation, but guys like Drew Rasmussen, today's starter, have been incredible. He's 6-1 with a 197 ERA at home, and he's only given up nine earned runs in 44 innings since the All-Star break. He has some of the best pitching movement in Major League Baseball, and he can mix and match pitches here with the best of them. He throws his fastball, cutter, and slider all over 20% of the time, and then he can slide in a curveball or sinker here in there whenever he wants to. He's facing Rich Hall and a Red Sox bullpen that just is not right this year. Hill has been below average, 452 ERA in 2022. and his ERA in the second half is up near 550 right now. Take the Tampa Bay Rays to continue their push for the AL East lead. I never thought I'd say it, but this one is a blowout special. Tampa Bay Rays money line here, minus 155 over the Boston Red Sox.”
TB 8, BOS 4 — Rays beat Red Sox 8-4 (ESPN box score); Rays moneyline covers.
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Adam Thielen, over 750 and a half yards receiving in the 2022 season. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so never done this before. Three locks in one day. Three huge, three huge player props. So I'm going to be honest with you. I took Justin Jefferson in my fantasy league. I had to draft late in the first round. I think he's going to have an incredible year. But I think Adam Thielen is too. I mean, the only way he doesn't go over 750 and a half receiving yards is if he gets hurt here. This guy was hurt last year. I think the hype is a little too much on Justin Jefferson. I mean, if you listen to everyone, you think he's going to catch something like 2,000 receiving yards. So he'll get 1,500, 1,600. but Thielen's going to go over 1,000 here, maybe even 1,200 if he stays healthy here. Level one lock, Adam Thielen over 750.5 receiving yards.”
Adam Thielen finished the 2022 regular season with 70 receptions for 716 yards (ESPN season stats/game log); under 750.5 receiving yards busts. (Adam Thielen: 70 rec, 716 yds (2022 season))
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Wentz to go over nine and a half interceptions on the season. Lee, break this one down. I said last year, you just watched him late in the season. He was not the same guy where he was three or four years ago, not even close here. He makes mistakes here. He fumbles, but he also throws a lot of interceptions. The only way this doesn't go over is if he gets pulled for another quarterback at some time this year. I doubt that happens or he gets hurtier So unless he gets hurt something strange happens um hey Carson Wentz is going to throw like 12 to 15 interceptions minimum this year here might even approach 20 here uh if they fall behind early and often games here level two lock Carson Wentz over nine and a half interceptions on the year with the Washington Commanders”
Carson Wentz threw 9 interceptions in the 2022 regular season with Washington (ESPN season stats); under 9.5 interceptions busts. (Carson Wentz: 9 INT (2022 season))
“betonline.net line for this one fields over 14 and a half interceptions break this one down for us lee yeah and they're going with justin fields i mean he's their guy here and he's going to have some nice moments but without a stud wide receiver without uh alan robinson he's gone he went to the Rams and barring injury with this offensive line, the way they pass for track, Justin Fields, he might throw 25, 30 interceptions. He might approach what Jamis Winston did when he threw 30 interceptions. Justin Fields over 14 and a half interceptions here. If we're going over here, also here all the way up level three lock, Justin Fields over 14 interceptions with the Chicago Bears this season.”
Justin Fields threw 11 interceptions in the 2022 regular season with Chicago (ESPN season stats); under 14.5 interceptions busts. (Justin Fields: 11 INT (2022 season))
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Astros minus 155 versus the Rangers with the take back being plus 140. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right. We've had a great baseball season. And part of that reason is we've been playing the Houston Astros and playing them also, not just the money line, laying one and a half runs, and then going against the Texas Strangers. And the Texas Strangers have been how bad? Well, they've lost eight straight games. But just like the LA Angels, when Shea Otani pitches, the Texas Rangers have been very good when Martin Perez pitches. In fact, he's a 10-5 record. Here's one of the worst teams in baseball, 10-5 record, with, believe it or not, a 289 ERA. He is their ace by far. He's ended a lot of losing streaks. Now he's going to face Hunter Brown. Who's Hunter Brown? Well, he's the prize prospect for the Houston Astros. He's going to get the start tonight. So I think he might have some jitters. Martin Perez, as good as he's been career-wise, I mean, he has just absolutely been on fire against Houston. He's had trouble the last two outings. So I think he's really going to be focused here. He is just one of these guys who mixes his pitches really well and going to face a Houston team that may be, you know, overlooking this game. And, yeah, they won five out of six. They've got a six-game lead on the Yankees. I think they feel pretty secure about that, and they'll have the home field advantage and number one seed. But Texas, with their stud on the hill here, they're getting? Are you kidding me? plus money here. I think it's the way to go here. We're going to go with the wrong team favorite, believe it or not, the Texas Rangers. Take it to the Houston Astros on the road. Book it, Dano.”
HOU 1, TEX 0 — Astros beat Rangers 1-0 behind Hunter Brown's MLB debut (ESPN box score); Rangers moneyline busts.
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Clemson minus 23 versus Georgia Tech. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so something wasn't quite right here with Clemson last year. Week three, they played Georgia Tech 114-8. So it was a harbinger of what was going to happen the rest of the year. DJ Ugalele just couldn't get it going. But the year before, they beat Georgia Tech 73-7. There is no way that this team the talent has fallen that much in two years So DJ had a really good spring football camp And how bad is Georgia tech Well uh Jameer Gibbs decided their star running back Hey, I'm out of here. I'm going to Alabama here. So, uh, uh, just look what the Georgia tech has done against Clemson with Gibbs. Uh, they only scored eight, seven and 14 points in the last three games. So the game is in Atlanta. I think Clemson will have probably close to as many fans in the stands here. I love the three-headed monster at running back. Will Shipley, really good. Kobe Pace, he can break the long one in Phil Maffa. He is really good also. I'm just not a Georgia Tech Jeff Sims fan at all. And how about this? Here's why the Georgia Tech coaching staff might be out by week seven or week eight. 10 and 26 against the spread. That's not straight up. That's based on the point spread. So you just look at that point spread record. You realize how bad they are here. Sometimes you got to lay it if you want to play it here. Blowout special, Clemson big, 45-14 over Georgia Tech.”
GT 10, CLEM 41 — Clemson beat Georgia Tech 41-10 (ESPN box score); Tigers win by 31, -23 covers.
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Ravens minus six and a half versus the Jets. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, Lamar Jackson last year, I think he figured out we were early. In fact, even before the season started, it was going to be a tough season. I mean, he lost his top three running backs. just had to do it alone. He was left with a bunch of guys back there that just weren't up to NFL caliber. This year, totally different. J.K. Dobbins is back. He looked good, and he'll be ready to go. So this is a team also in the secondary. I mean, they were playing at one time. They lost six of the top seven guys by the end of the year, so they just couldn compete This year they scaled it down in preseason They still won every preseason game I mean they are a preseason machine I think they won something like 24 out of 25 straight up and against the spread So it's a crazy number. But the Jets even won all three preseason games. But many times when teams win all three preseason games, they're looking to sell tickets. The Jets kept their starters and even their second stringers in when other teams were playing third and fourth stringers. And the number one reason I'm going against the Jets, and you're not going to get many more chances, is Joe Flacco. I think he's done. He's like that boxer that's 38, 39 years old. His reflexes are shot. His arm is okay. He just can't get out of the way, can't evade pass rushers like he used to, tries to force the ball in. One of the games in preseason to a pick six, I think you're going to see more of that. he might only play one or more times until Zach Wilson comes back. And then on top of that, their offensive line, they lost Mekhi Becton. He is out for the season. So what did they have to do? They had a huge shakeup. George Font had to move from the right side, and he is moving, I'm sorry, from left tackle to the right tackle. And then the Jets signed Dwayne Brown to be their new left tackle. So this group, they only practiced together in pads twice. That's right, twice. And, I mean, at 18 days, that's it. They only had 21 snaps together in preseason. In 12 dropbacks, Flacco, Joe Flacco, was pressured four times. They couldn't run the ball. I just think that it spells trouble here. This line is six and a half. It's not going to last long. by tomorrow, Wednesday. I think this line will be seven. By Thursday, or even late Wednesday night when they announced that Wilson's going to be up, the line's going to be seven and a half. So grab it while you can here. Level one lock to start the week. We're going with the Baltimore Ravens minus the six and a half over the New York Jets.”
BAL 24, NYJ 9 — Ravens beat Jets 24-9 in Week 1 (ESPN box score); Ravens win by 15, -6.5 covers.
“The player prop bet that we have here for Alcantara, betonline.net line for this one. Over 5 strikeouts minus 140 versus the Braves Thoughts on this one Lee Yeah Sandy Alcantara has NL Cy Young wrapped up in my opinion after shutting down the best team in baseball the dodgers for a complete game victory in his last start it might be the only award the marlins win this year but it's obvious he's the best pitcher in baseball his strikeout numbers aren't all that high for such a good pitcher but his number is still too low. He had 10 Ks against LA and he's averaged 6.2 strikeouts per his last seven starts. He's also facing a lineup here in Atlanta that despite all of its offensive power has the second most strikeouts in all of baseball. Ronald Acuna is hurt and the Braves have struck out 13, 10, and 12 times in each of their last three games. Don't be intimidated here by this offense. They will swing and miss. I think it continues to happen here. Sandy Alcantara of the Miami Marlins over five and a half strikeouts, minus one 40 hidden gem.”
ATL 8, MIA 1 — Sandy Alcantara struck out 3 over 5 innings as the Braves beat the Marlins 8-1 (ESPN box score); over 5.5 strikeouts busts. (Sandy Alcantara: 5 IP, 3 K)
“Netonline.net line for this one. Georgia minus 17 and a half versus the Oregon Ducks. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, two huge. Actually, three big storylines here. Number one, Bo Nix. after quarterbacking Auburn for what feels like 15 years. He moves on to Oregon as a 16th-year transfer. So he'll be leading this Oregon offense. Number two, Dan Lanning, Oregon head coach, returns after being defensive coordinator for three years for Georgia. I just think that his familiarity here can't be ignored. He knows the schemes and the personnel. That alone, I mean, he could tell you everything about these kids. He recruited them, you know, in high school. So he knows all their injuries. He knows their strengths and weaknesses here. I think that's worth four, five, or six points. And then Georgia lost eight out of 11 starters on defense on what might have been the best defense we've seen in maybe the nation the last decade. Stetson Bennett. I mean, he's okay. But, you know, I don't think he's going to be able to have another dream season. That usually only happens once in a player like that's career. Oregon, eight starters return on offense from an offense that beat Ohio State on the road last year, and they return all five starting offensive linemen. Grab all the points you can here. Wrong team favored. I think Georgia wins something like 31-21, but 17.5 points? Are you kidding me? I'm taking the Oregon Ducks here plus the points against Georgia.”
UGA 49, ORE 3 — Georgia beat Oregon 49-3 (ESPN box score); Ducks lose by 46, +17.5 does not cover.
“BetOnline.net line for this. Ohio State minus 17 versus Notre Dame. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah. Yeah, I like the hire of Marcus Freeman as head coach. I think he's going to be really good. He's recruiting well. But most of the guys that are going to help him out, they start coming in next year or at least in January. Ohio State, they've got the best offense, in my opinion, in the country. C.J. Stroud, if he's not the best quarterback, he's number two or 1A. Maybe the best receiver in the country, two top 15 running backs. And who's their defensive coordinator? Well, none other than Jim Knowles. Who's Jim Knowles? He was the defensive coordinator at Oklahoma State. And who did they face in their last game of the bowl game? Notre Dame. Gets to prepare for the same team in back-to-back games here. I think he'll be able to tweak and come up with some really good blitzes. And Ohio State's healthy. At the end of the year, they were playing a fullback, a converted fullback at linebacker the last four games of the year, Notre Dame. They just haven't matched up one in six the last seven times they've faced a top-ten team here. Woodshed came here. Blowout special. Ohio State 48-20 over Notre Dame.”
OSU 21, ND 10 — Ohio State beat Notre Dame 21-10 (ESPN box score); Buckeyes moneyline covers.
“man online on the headline for this one LSU minus three versus Florida State break this one down I asked a good friend of mine told me he was going to the Florida State LSU game in Baton Rouge I said why are you going he goes I just want to feel what it's like to you know have my team play in front of a full crowd so I thought that was cute answer there I mean they playing to half full maybe 60 capacity the last five years no bowls Mike Norble on the hot seat I'm hearing he might even do some of the play calling for this game. They are that desperate. You know, I'm not buying. They beat Duquesne. I didn't even know Duquesne, which is out of Pittsburgh area, even had a football team. So LSU's going to, it looks like, start Jaden Daniels, a quarterback, 29 career starts. If he doesn't start well, they'll bring in redshirt freshman Garrett Nussmeyer. He was breathing down his neck in fall camp here. And I just think that the learning curve in Baton Rouge will be much shorter than expected. And I think they have the athletes to make one or two more big plays here than Florida State here. Florida State to 6-12 against the spread as a road dog here. I like LSU on Sunday here. 28-20 over Florida State. Level 3 locked to end the week.”
LSU 23, FSU 24 — Florida State beat LSU 24-23 (ESPN box score); LSU moneyline busts.
“betonline.net line for this one the Red Sox minus 175 with the take back for the Rangers being plus 160 break this one down for us Lee yeah so I know I've gone against Texas a lot, but here's another team that I've been going against, and that's the Boston Red Sox. I know both these two teams are out of the playoff race at this point, but I was pretty shocked when I saw this line with the Red Sox, such a big favorite. They're just 31 and 34 at home this season. They've lost seven of the last nine games. This team is also just one in seven in the last eight games against right-handed starting pitching. Glenn Otto goes for Texas tonight on the bump, improving. I mean, 6-8 with a 479 ERA if you just look at his raw numbers. But that has been cut, his ERA, down to 379 in the second half. And it's even lower on the road at 353. He had a really rough start against the Red Sox back in May, so I think that's going to motivate him. He gave up eight runs in four innings. But both of these teams were in completely different places back then. He's going to have revenge here on his mind. Like I said, pitching just much better. Different pitcher at this time of the year than he was when he faced some laps. On the other side, I don't know a single baseball better that is afraid of Rich Hill at this point in his career. His fastball doesn't even touch the 90s at this point. has a 432 ERA at its highest point since 2009, and he's pitching worse at home than on the road with a 554 ERA at Fenway Park. If you see some dents on the wall, those are some of the balls by the opposing batters that they've hit against him. So this line is way too overpriced. Go with the wrong team favorite here, Texas Rangers, money line, plus 160.”
BOS 9, TEX 8 — Red Sox rallied to beat Texas 9-8 (ESPN box score); Rangers moneyline busts.
“BetOnline.net line for this one. We going to roll with Cyril Gan to win by TKO This is minus 150 He got to win by TKO KO submission Basically it can go to a decision Break this one down for us Lee Yeah so some of these lines are real big when you see these UFC fight line odds And so the better way to tackle is find a way that that fighter will win the fight, you know, either by submission, TKO, KO. But here's a way by finish. You can add in everything. Like I said, TKO, KO, submission, or even a disqualification. So, Tui Vasa is fun. I mean, he's the guy that takes someone's shoe and will put a beer in there and drink it out of there when he wins. And he's been winning a lot of late. In fact, his last fight, he won round two against Augusto Sakai. Before that, Derek Lewis. Both of them ended in the second round. But I think Derek Lewis is done. Before that, he beat Greg Hardy, Harry Hunsicker. Now he's going to take on a different level fighter. And remember, fighting at home, this fight is in Paris. That's where he hails from. He will have a huge, we talked about like home court or home field advantage, home ring advantage here. And I think he's a guy, yeah, he lost his last fight to Francis Ngannou, but how many people have been successful against him? He also knocked out Lewis in the fight before that. and also beat Alexander Volkov. He beat Rosenstruck and also Junior Dos Santos. So it's five rounds also. And Tuivasa has never been five rounds, and I think that's going to be a problem for him. So I think he's going to tire after a couple rounds or get knocked out, or if he tires, he'll just get submitted here. So I'm going to say that this fight does not go the distance here, and Cyril Ghosn will be the winner here. So, Sirogan here, minus 150 over Tai Tuivasa here.”
Ciryl Gane knocked out Tai Tuivasa by KO (punches) in round 3 at UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa (Wikipedia, citing official UFC result); Gane to win by finish covers.
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Tennessee minus 35.5 That's a lot of points going up against Ball State. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so people are looking at this game and a lot has been thought and talked about with this Tennessee team here And I think they going to be even better this year but they going to play some ball teams You just look at the raw numbers Terrible They number 122 in experience out of 131 teams Their defensive line and linebackers were horrible last year. They, in fact, only returned their top sacker from last year. Returning had just one and a half sacks. Their defense had just 23 sacks here. But they have added some reinforcements on the defensive line. pretty good defensive line, Kyle King from Michigan State. And their defensive player of the year from the year before, Brandon Martin, linebacker, returns. This guy got a seventh-year eligibility. So don't know the whole story behind it. I know he's hurt last year, but not sure how he got the extra two years, probably a COVID year and another injury earlier in his career. But here's a guy that averages over 100 tackles a season here. So remember, Tennessee has Pitt up next week. And what happened last year? They lost 41-34. I think they're going to maybe take their starters out after three quarters here. I think Ball State can score enough to cover here. You've got to win this game probably by 40 points to cover. At six touchdowns, that's an average of a touchdown and a half each quarter. You're going to score more than your opponent. That's pretty tough. I think Tennessee wins 45-14, but I'm taking the 35 points. You're a little too hefty. let's back ball state here level one lock on thursday”
TENN 59, BALL 10 — Tennessee beat Ball State 59-10 (ESPN box score); Cardinals lose by 49, +35.5 does not cover.
“Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies, over one and a half total bases, plus 115. Bet a little, win a whole lot.”
Bryce Harper went 3-for-4 with 3 total bases in the Phillies' 18-2 win over Arizona (ESPN box score); over 1.5 total bases covers. (Bryce Harper: 3-for-4, 3 total bases)
“We're going to take the one and a half runs minus 125 here with the Kansas City Royals. Wrong team favorite.”
CHW 4, KC 2 — White Sox beat Royals 4-2 (ESPN box score); Royals lose by 2, +1.5 does not cover.
“So I'm taking the points here. Central Michigan plus 20.5 glorious points. Grab all the points you can here. I'd even wait until game time. I think it's going to keep going up. That's what we usually do with underdogs here. Level three lock for Thursday night in college football.”
OKST 58, CMU 44 — Oklahoma State beat Central Michigan 58-44 (ESPN box score); Chippewas lose by 14, +20.5 covers.
“So I'm going under five and a half wins here, plus 105 for the Seattle Seahawks. It's my hidden gem right off the bat.”
Seattle finished the 2022 regular season 9-8, going over the 5.5-win total (Wikipedia, citing the official standings).
“I'm riding with the Twins tonight in this one. Blowout special. Minnesota Twins here. Moneyline minus 115 over the Boston Red Sox.”
MIN 4-2 — Twins beat Red Sox 4-2 on Urshela's three-run double; Minnesota moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go here with a level two lock to start the week. Missouri Tigers, 45-21 over Louisiana Tech.”
MIZ 52-24 — Missouri opened the season by beating Louisiana Tech 52-24; Tigers moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Jump on this prop. Bet right now, Daniel Vogelback of the New York Mets, over one and a half total bases, plus 145.”
Daniel Vogelbach grounded out as a Mets pinch hitter in the 9th, finishing with 0 hits and 0 total bases; under the 1.5 total-bases line (ESPN box score). (Vogelbach 0 total bases)
“Take the blowout here. New York Yankees, minus one and a half runs, minus 130. Blowout special over the hapless A's.”
NYY 3-2 — Yankees beat Athletics 3-2; New York's +1 margin fails to cover the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Lay the six here. Carolina wins easy by double digits over Buffalo tonight in preseason football. Level two lock.”
CAR 21-0 — Panthers shut out Bills 21-0 in the preseason finale; Carolina's +21 margin covers -6 (ESPN box score).
“I think the wrong team is favored. Baltimore Orioles money line plus 105 against the Chicago White Sox.”
BAL 4-3 — Orioles beat White Sox 4-3 in 11 innings on a 9th-inning HR; Baltimore moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“I'm taking the 13 points. Another wrong team favored, the Wildcats of Northwestern. I think they hang right in this game here with Nebraska. I think this is going to be a one-score game.”
NU 31-28 — Northwestern beat Nebraska 31-28 in Dublin on Aug 27, 2022; Wildcats +13 covers easily (ESPN box score).
“So let's lay the one and a half runs here, minus 150. The Philadelphia Phillies here blowout here over the Cincinnati Reds again.”
PHI 4-0 — Nola threw a shutout as Phillies beat Reds 4-0; Philadelphia's +4 margin covers -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“I just think this is a great situational play. Catch them early here. We're going with the New Mexico State Aggies, believe it or not, who were 2-10 last year, plus the nine points against Nevada. I mean, I might even sprinkle here some money line here on the Aggies. Boom. And we're going to go with it as the room team favored.”
NEV 23-12 — Nevada beat New Mexico State 23-12 on Aug 27, 2022; Aggies +9 loses by 11 (ESPN box score).
“Take the blowout, blowout special, Tampa Bay Rays lay the one and a half runs, minus 120 over the Angels in the outfield.”
TB 4-3 — Rays beat Angels 4-3 in 11 innings; Tampa Bay's +1 margin fails to cover the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're going with the over here, over eight and a half runs, minus 120 here in the Philadelphia Cincinnati Reds game. Level two lock.”
PHI 7-5 — Phillies beat Reds 7-5; combined 12 runs clears the over 8.5 (ESPN box score).
“Fade him while we can here. Hidden gem, Arizona Diamondbacks, money line, minus 120 over the Kansas City Royals.”
ARI 7-3 — Diamondbacks beat Royals 7-3; Arizona moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“and it's a 429 era this month i think they continue to disappoint here wrong team favored Cleveland Guardians money line plus 135 over the San Diego Padres”
CLE 3-1 — Guardians beat Padres 3-1 at Petco Park; Cleveland moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Lock of the day. BetOnline.net line for this one. We're going to roll C.J. Stroud from Ohio State plus 220. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, there's three guys, in my opinion, if you're looking to win this here and maybe a long shot. So Bryce Young plays for Alabama. And really good offense, really good offensive line, running backs, receivers, okay, maybe top 10, top 12. But they're going to win this year with defense. When the chips are down, people don't realize how good their defense is underrated. Last year gave up just 2.7 yards per carry and had not 27, 37, or even 47 sacks, 57 sacks. So they're strong on both sides of the ball. So there'll be some games, you know, they might win, you know, 30 to 24, 38 to 17. Whereas Ohio State, it's a different story here. They give up their defense a full yard more at 3.7 yards per carry. In fact, they give up 246 yards per game passing and only had 37 sacks. and they're going to have to outscore teams, but they should be able to do it. C.J. Stroud is really good. Two really good running backs, Trevion Henderson. He's also got Mayan Williams, a freshman named Evan Pryor. Look for him. Maybe the best receiver in college football in Jackson Smith And then a bunch of other guys their quarterbacks I rate him number one in college football Then you look at what else they have. Their running backs. And I went by the consensus of all these different magazines. Number two, their receivers, number two, their offensive line, number three. So their defense is okay. But I just think that they're going to put up some huge numbers, and it's all about putting up numbers, and it's almost always the quarterback that wins now. So I favor C.J. Stroud at plus 220 for every $100 you win 220 to win it over Bryce Young, who's plus 350, and Caleb Williams, who's at USC. USC will drop a couple games. You also have to have a really good record. And I think Ohio State and Alabama going into the bowls have a good chance of being undefeated or at most one loss. You want a long shot? Well, I've got one for you. At 30-1, Dylan Gabriel for Oklahoma. If they're going to win the conference, which I think they're the favorites to do, they're going to outscore people. Their defense is horrendous. They might hit 60 a couple times this year. They might win a couple games, 62-45. So he's going to be my long shot at 30-1, Dylan Gabriel. but I'm going with CJ Stroud plus 220 here for my level two lock on Tuesday.”
Caleb Williams (USC), not C.J. Stroud, won the 2022 Heisman Trophy (official heisman.com winners list).
“I'm laying the one-and-a-half runs here. Minus 110. Blowout special number one here. Philadelphia Phillies over the hapless Cincinnati Reds.”
PHI 4-1 — Phillies beat Reds 4-1; margin +3 clears the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to lay the two and a half points here. I think they're favored for a reason on the road. We're going to go with another blowout special, number two, Atlanta Falcons over the New York Jets.”
NYJ 24-16 — Jets beat Falcons 24-16 in preseason; Falcons lost outright, busting the -2.5 spread (ESPN).
“So I'm going to take, hate to say it, the New York Mets, as they come in and they take on the Bronx Bombers, I'm going to lay the 155 here, low out special number three here. We're going to take the New York Mets over the New York Yankees.”
NYY 4-2 — Yankees beat Mets 4-2; Mets moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“They're favored by two and a half points here. I think they're certainly the right side. I love Houston here. I think they lay it on the LA Rams.”
HOU 24, LAR 20 — Texans beat Rams 24-20; Texans -2.5 spread covers by 4 (ESPN team schedule).
“Hidden gem on Lance Lynn to strike out less than five hitters for the Cleveland Guardians here Under four and a half strikeouts minus 105 He pulled by the fourth or fifth inning here Q he can turn this game off also All right take it straight to the bank”
CLE 5, CHW 2 — Lance Lynn struck out 6 over 5.2 IP for the White Sox as Cleveland won 5-2; the under 4.5 strikeouts prop busts (ESPN box score). (Lance Lynn: 6 strikeouts)
“I'm going to say no team should be favored. I'm going with a draw. It can end 0-0, 1-1, or worst case scenario, 2-2, plus 2-45, bet 100, win $245 here. No team should be favored here. We're going with a draw in the West Ham Brighton game.”
BHA 2, WHU 0 — Brighton beat West Ham 2-0; the draw bet misses (ESPN scoreboard).
“Costa, minus 340 favorite, but we're going to go with him here. Minus 150 to erase Rockhold by TKO or KO here. We're going to go with a level two lock to end the week here with our man here, paulo the eraser costa to ko luke rockhold the eraser is going to erase luke rockhold end him in”
Costa defeated Rockhold by unanimous decision (30-27 x3) at UFC 278, not by TKO/KO; the KO/TKO prop busts (Wikipedia event results).
“touch tonight. I think the offense carries its weight here. Toronto Blue Jays team total over three and a half runs here minus 130 blowout special there it is right there the blowout”
TOR 9, NYY 2 — Blue Jays routed Yankees 9-2; Toronto's team total over 3.5 runs covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“I think Adley Rushman is your best bet for the rookie of the year in the AL here. Bet a little, win a whole lot. Adley Rushman to win the AL rookie of the year, plus 800.”
Julio Rodriguez won the 2022 AL Rookie of the Year award, not Adley Rutschman; the futures bet busts (Wikipedia).
“This is strong here. This is real strong here. We're going with a level three lock. We're going all the way up. Tennessee Titans here under nine and a half wins minus 135.”
Titans finished the 2022 regular season 7-10; under 9.5 wins covers (ESPN team schedule).
“This one won't be close here. Hidden gem, Texas Rangers, money line, minus 155 over the Oakland A's.”
OAK 7, TEX 2 — Athletics beat Rangers 7-2; Rangers moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“Wrong team favored. Tampa Bay Rays, money line, plus 135 over the Bronx Bombers.”
NYY 8, TB 7 — Yankees walked off Rays 8-7 in 10 innings; Rays moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm going to go with the under 38 and a half points. I think we're going to see something like a 13, 10, 17, 13 ball game. Why take a chance on, on trying to pick a winner when the total is going to be much easier. There it is. What level lock you giving this one? We're going to go to level one lock.”
HOU 24, LAR 20 — Texans beat Rams 24-20 in the only 2022 preseason meeting between these teams, played Aug 19, 2022 (not Aug 17); combined 44 points busts the under 38.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“I'm picking Seattle. I'm laying the three points here on Thursday night. I want to get ahead of this line. I want to get it before it moves here. We're going to go with a hidden gem. Get on it early here. Seattle Seahawks minus three in preseason action on Thursday night over the Chicago Bears.”
CHI 27, SEA 11 — Bears beat Seahawks 27-11; Seahawks -3 spread busts (ESPN team schedule).
“Pick the low total here. This is a game you loved, Q. We should see runs early and often. Might be over by the sixth inning here. Blowout special. Over eight runs, minus 110. Atlanta Braves, New York Mets tonight.”
ATL 13, NYM 1 — Braves beat Mets 13-1, combined 14 runs; over 8 total covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Astros money line, minus 120 versus the White Sox. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, the White Sox have struggled to get their big pitchers to perform this year. But guys like Jose Urquay, Jose Urquay has made the Houston Astros as successful as they are right now in the AL. The Astros are running away with the AL West again because of guys like him. He has a 385 ERA, including a 3-0 record since the All-Star break, and has had nine consecutive quality starts here until that last outing where it didn't go so well. So I expect him to rebound. Johnny Cueto has been one of the few bright spots for the White Sox but his expected ERA is over a full point higher than his current ERA and he has a reverse home and road split here So his home ERA is over a point higher than his road ERA You don't see that too often. And he's pitching to contact more this season than he ever has before. That's not going to play well against an Astros team that has the third lowest width percentage in all of pro baseball. I'm taking the far better team with a better pull bin here at a short price. Level one lock. Houston Astros money in line tonight. They get the job done here over the White Sox.”
CHW 4, HOU 2 — White Sox beat Astros 4-2; Astros moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“wrong team favorite wrong pitcher favorite here we're going to go with the LA Angels money line plus 115 wrong team favored over the Minnesota Twins boom there it is right there a little”
MIN 4, LAA 0 — Twins beat Angels 4-0; Angels moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
- Bruno Silva
- Marlon Vera
“So betonline.net line for this one. We're going to roll Bruno Blendado Silva versus Gerald GM3 Mershardt. Marlon Tito Vera versus Dominic Dominion Cruz. Money line minus 110 for both those fights.”
Gerald Meerschaert submitted Bruno Silva in round 3, busting that leg; Marlon Vera KO'd Dominick Cruz in round 4 on the same UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz card (Aug 13, 2022). A parlay needs every leg to win, so it busts on the Silva leg (Wikipedia event results).
“So I'm going to go with the Detroit Lions here. I'm going to lay the two points here. It's going to be a level two lock to end the week.”
ATL 27, DET 23 — Falcons beat Lions 27-23; Lions -2 spread busts by 4 (ESPN team schedule).
“So we're going to go with the silent assassin, David Onama here, by finish plus 110 over land we're uh we're gonna go that we're gonna just say that the wrong fighter is favorite there it is right there wrong fighter favorite getting us started right there”
Nate Landwehr beat David Onama by majority decision at UFC on ESPN 41 on Aug 13 2022 (a Fight of the Night, but a decision, not a finish), so Onama-by-finish busts (Wikipedia fight record).
“I'm thinking the Reds here. I think they blow out Chicago. I think they're going to win this game by three or four runs. So we're going to go with the Cincinnati Reds. Blowout special here over the Chicago Cubs tonight.”
CHC 4, CIN 2 — Cubs beat Reds 4-2 in the Field of Dreams Game on Aug 11 2022; Reds moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So I'm taking him. You're getting three points. Are you kidding me? The total is 34. So let's say it's a three-point game either way. You're guaranteed a push there. So I think they win the game out right here. We're going to go with a level two lock here. the New England Patriots at home plus three against the New York Giants boom there it is”
NYG 23, NE 21 — Giants beat Patriots 23-21 in NFL preseason Week 2 on Aug 11 2022 on a late field goal; Patriots +3 covers, losing by only 2 (ESPN box score).
“Win $300 for every $100 you bet on this one here. Bet a little. Win a whole lot. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., plus $300 to hit a home run tonight in Baltimore.”
Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-5 with no home runs as the Orioles beat the Blue Jays 6-5 on Aug 9 2022 (ESPN box score). (Guerrero Jr. 1-for-5, 0 HR)
“We're going to go the L.A. Dodgers minus the one-and-a-half runs plus 100. Blowout special.”
LAD 10, MIN 3 — Dodgers beat Twins 10-3 on Aug 9 2022; Dodgers -1.5 covers by 7 (ESPN box score).
“So lay the small spot. The Ravens minus the three here. Level two lock on Thursday night.”
BAL 23, TEN 10 — Ravens beat Titans 23-10 in NFL preseason Week 2 on Aug 11 2022; Ravens -3 covers by 13 (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with Silva here, laying the minus 125 here. Blow out number one here. We're going to go with the king here. I think he gets the early win in the Dana White Contender Series on Tuesday night.”
Erik Silva defeated Anvar Boynazarov by first-round TKO (elbows and punches) at Dana White's Contender Series 49 on Aug 9 2022, earning a UFC contract (Wikipedia event recap).
“lay the one and a half runs, minus 110, blowout special, Arizona Diamondbacks over the Pittsburgh Pirates.”
ARI 3, PIT 0 — Diamondbacks shut out the Pirates 3-0 on Aug 8 2022 behind Zac Gallen; Diamondbacks -1.5 covers by 3 (ESPN box score).
“Don't fall for the trap here. I think the jets are going to win this game by 10 to 14 points here. Blowout number three, believe it or not, the New York jets minus the three. I think it's going to close three and a half to four over the Philadelphia Eagles on Friday night.”
NYJ 24, PHI 21 — Jets beat Eagles 24-21 in NFL preseason Week 2 on Aug 12 2022; Jets -3 wins by exactly 3, an exact push on the line (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take the better pitcher with a healthier bullpen behind him. New York Mets, money line, minus 130. Low out special here as they widen their lead over the Atlanta Braves.”
ATL 9, NYM 6 — Braves beat Mets 9-6 on Aug 5 2022; Mets moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“they got a chance to pull the shocker here. Six to six and a half wins. I think they go way over that level two lock. I think Kansas State wins eight plus games. Nice. I like it right there. And, of course, the Wildcat fans would be excited if K-State's able to hit the eight or nine win total right there for the upcoming season. Always did like the style that they play. Even going back to Coach Snyder, always liked the style that they played. It was a little bit different than what you normally see in the Big 12. But there you go. Level two lock, you said, Lee? Level, yeah, level two lock. Boom, level two lock for the K-State Wildcats. Big 12 action, over six wins, minus 150 for the upcoming 2022 season.”
Kansas State finished the 2022 regular season 10-4 (10-5 including a Sugar Bowl loss and a Big 12 title win), well over the 6-win line (Wikipedia season summary).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. We're going to roll Brewers and Reds over nine runs, plus 100. Break it down for us, Lee. Yeah, the Milwaukee Brewers definitely disappointed at the deadline. And in Pittsburgh, in the most recent series. But it's not like the offense was the problem when they were swept by the Pirates. The team is still averaging 5.9 runs per game since the All-Star break. And let's not forget, they've hit 25 home runs and scored eight runs per game in nine matchups with the Reds this season. If anything, it's suddenly their bullpen that has been the big disappointment for them. And that should bring in some runs here. They're also facing, I believe, the worst starting pitcher in the majors right now. A kid named Robert Duggar. He was with the Miami Marlins. This kid throws batting practice. He has bounced around quite a bit. He was from Seattle for a little bit. Signed, I mean, literally like a couple days before the start of the season. In four major league seasons. This kid, 697 ERA in his career. An 0-6 record as a starter here. The Reds, though, should have some success with Eric Lauer. The Reds obviously gave up some pieces at the deadline. But this lineup can still put together some runs here behind Jonathan India and also Kyle Farmer. The Brewers starter is another one of these guys who has decent numbers this year, but some concerning underlying stats as well. He has an ERA against teams with losing records here that's much higher than teams with winning records. And he gave up four earned runs in six innings against this same Reds team in his last time he faced them. I'm not betting on either here of these bullpens. I think they both major weaknesses here and should have no problem giving up three to four runs each Take the over This one I going to project is going to go over by the sixth inning I see an eight to six ball game here Level three lock. Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds over the nine runs.”
MIL 5, CIN 1 — Brewers beat Reds 5-1 on Aug 5 2022; combined 6 runs, under the 9-run total (ESPN box score).
“Take the over here. We're going with a hidden gem. Shohei Otani here over 8.5 strikeouts minus 110.”
OAK 3, LAA 1 — Shohei Ohtani struck out 7 over 5.2 IP as the losing pitcher in Oakland's 3-1 win; under the 8.5 strikeout line (ESPN box score). (Shohei Ohtani: 7 strikeouts)
“Take the Milwaukee Brewers and lay the one-and-a-half minus 125 low-out special over the hapless Oakland A's.”
PIT 8, MIL 7 — Pittsburgh beat Milwaukee 8-7 on Bryan Reynolds' leadoff homer in the 9th; a 1-run Brewers loss doesn't cover -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to lay the one and a half points here. I'm going to take the Las Vegas Raiders here over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Level two lock in the game tomorrow night. Boom. Level two lock right there. Hall of Fame game Raiders and one and a half point favorites over the Jags right there.”
LV 27, JAX 11 — Las Vegas beat Jacksonville 27-11 in the Hall of Fame Game on Aug 4, 2022, a 16-point margin that clears -1.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one, the Padres minus 115 versus the Twins with the take back being plus 105. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, something's just not right with Blake Snell. I mean, this guy used to be one of the most dominant pitchers in the AL when he was in Tampa Bay. In his first two years with San Diego, he has been both horrible by his standards. He was hurt for the early portion of this season and he has a 475 ERA and his 11 starts since returning And the Padres they not too excited when he on the hill They're not backing him. Just three and nine in his 12 appearances this series. His biggest issue has been his command. He ranks fourth percentile in walk rate this year with 13.5 walks per nine innings. And you know what they say, you walk that leadoff hitter, it's usually going to cost you over 50% of walks with no outs end up scoring. So he's only throwing strikes. How about this on just 61% of his pitches? What's interesting about this is Minnesota has the eighth lowest chase rate in baseball. It doesn't come into play too often, but when you've got a pitcher that doesn't throw strikes, You've got a team that's not going to chase. Just got a great matchup here. So they're not going to give him extra strikes here by swinging at balls out of the zone. Joe Ryan starts from Minnesota here. I really like this kid. He was pitching like the AL rookie of the year early in the season before an injury and some struggles. But he's running a 270 road ERA and just went 22 innings in July while only giving up five runs. This is another guy that doesn't have a super high fastball velocity for his age, but he has great command. And if you watch this game, his slider is as deceptive as it gets. It looks like a fastball and then all of a sudden breaks, usually away from the right-handed batter. And the looks on their face after they see it usually end up for a strike or they end up swinging and missing is just classic. So don't forget to hear Blake's now 715 ERA in his five career starts against Minnesota Twins here. So don't be surprised if this lineup here just sees him well all evening. This game has so many layers. It's our wrong team favorite of the day. Minnesota Twins money line plus 105 over the San Diego Padres.”
SD 10, MIN 1 — San Diego routed Minnesota 10-1 behind Blake Snell; Twins ML busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Cardinals minus one and a half runs, minus 115 versus those Nationals. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, the Nationals are getting pretty desperate for the season to end at this point. Yeah, they won two games against the Dodgers in L.A., but they got thumped in game three and are still 5-17 in the last 22 games overall. At this point, they're starting to get this 38-year-old Annabelle Sanchez. I didn't even realize this guy was back in the league. I mean if you watched him the last three or four years it like the guy pitching batting practice I mean the ball just floats up there I mean it looks like a watermelon This is going to be his second start of the season because they're just looking for arms here at this point. Even Sanchez, who has barely pitched at all this year, has given up nine runs in 10 innings, and he's been hit all over the park. Even if Sanchez pulls a rabbit here out of his hat and can last five to six innings, The Nationals have the sixth worst bullpen by ERA here in the majors. Their offense has to face Miles. Mikolas here is coming off a bad start, and I like good pitchers off a bad start. I think he's going to rebound here based on his underlying numbers, especially he's 5-2 with a .297 ERA this year versus teams with losing records, and he should get plenty of run support too with paul goldschmidt and nolan arianda returning to the lineup here hey another team that wants juan soto the st louis cardinals minus the one and a half runs minus 115 blowout special boom”
STL 6, WSH 2 — St. Louis beat Washington 6-2, a 4-run margin that clears the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Cannibal, Pandoja, minus 170 versus Perez. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so here's what I do when I play fantasy football, when I handicap college and NFL teams, and also in the UFC, I have levels. I have what's called break points. So when I'm looking at guys, let's say you're drafting in fantasy and you're thinking, hey, do I take this guy in the first round? You might have, let's say, five wide receivers. And then from the fifth to the sixth is a big difference. Same thing in the UFC, same thing in college football and the NFL. You've got to have break points. And I think these are two top ten guys. But the difference here between Pantoja and Perez, I think, is a lot. So you get Pantoja here, and Pantoja has not lost a fight to any decent fighter since all the way back in 2018. He 6 and his two losses were against guys that were 12 and 15 On the other side you got a fighter Alex Perez I know he ranked in the top 10 but he just not in this fighter league here And when he loses, he loses by guillotine choke his last fight. And the first fight, when he became a professional, he is susceptible to the guillotine or other different chokes. And that's what Pantoja specializes in here. So Pantoja, so much more experience, so much more dynamic, striking, and also ground and pound and also with submissions. And how about this? Perez, the last fight he fought was in November of 2020. He's had a total of six straight fights canceled for various reasons. So when he steps into the ring, it is almost two years, and he's just going to, I just think, feel out of sorts. It might take him a round or two to get going, and by that time, it could be all over. He could either be submitted or lose the first two rounds. If you lose the first two rounds, the only way you can win is by having the fight stopped here. So we're going to go with a level three lock to end the week all the way up, and end the week strong. we're going with the cannibal here alexander the cannibal pantoja minus the 165 to 170 over alex perez there it is right there”
Alexandre Pantoja submitted Alex Perez (neck crank) at 1:31 of round one at UFC 277 on July 30, 2022; Pantoja ML covers (UFC.com event results).
“BetOnline.net live will roll with the Comeback Player of the Year. Christian McCaffrey is 7-1, and Julio Jones, 70-1. Lee, break this one down for us. All right, so Christian McCaffrey, when he was healthy a couple years ago, I thought he was the most dynamic back. Not only does he run for plenty of yards, not only does he catch the ball, he can make things happen and make guys miss. So I think he's determined. Yeah, I know guys like Derrick Henry are great, But, I mean, the second favorite, Jameis Winston, Daniel Jones, I don't see it happening. Mitchell Trubinsky, I don't know if he has enough supporting cast around him. Marcus Mariota, I'm not buying it. I'm going to go with Christian McCaffrey at 7-1. I think it has value. I can see him running away with it. It's just one of those years there's not 10 or 15 good candidates. And then Julio Jones, 7-1. Maybe he's got that one, you know, burst left in him, that one big monster year. You know, he's going to have the quarterback, Tom Brady. He's going to have the offensive line to give Brady time here. They always have a nice running attack. And when they throw the football, well, Brady's without his star tight end, who's been with him for many years, Gronk, and also one of his top receivers. So, hey, why can't it be Julio Jones this year? Hey, maybe he falls off next year. I'm just betting on this year. It's 70-1. Bet a little, went a whole lot there. So we're going to go with, like I said, 7-1 here. I just think that Christian McCaffrey is something you want to jump on.”
Seahawks QB Geno Smith won the 2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award, not Christian McCaffrey (Wikipedia, citing AP/PFWA/Sporting News).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Trey Turner of the Dodgers over one hit, minus 120 versus the Rockies. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so player props this time of year. You can find some real value, and there's so much data behind all this. So they're more common in baseball than in other sports because as long as the hitter is in the starting lineup, he almost always going to get three or more chances at the plate whereas football or basketball players can get pulled halfway or three of the way through the game and a blowout So let try one here You're not going to find many better mismatches in Major League Baseball than Trey Turner against Jose Ureña for the Colorado Rockies. Turner has batted 311 in the month of July, which is 11th best in the National League. He also ranks fifth in the NL in batting average against right-handed pitching. Urania has had some surprisingly good numbers this season in limited time, but I'm just not buying it. I mean, he has the 10th fewest strikeouts among quality pitchers in all baseball this year, and he has a 266 expected batting average against, which is 20 points above the league average. Now, Turner has two hits in two of the last three games, and he's hitting leadoff right now for L.A. So he's going to get more plate appearances than anyone else here in the lineup. And remember, too, Colorado has a second-worst bullpen ERA in the majors. So even if Turner can't get on base twice against the starter, he'll have some great chances against those relievers. Hey, if he gets one hit, you push. Two hits, you catch cash in big here. Hidden gem here, Trey Turner over one hit in the game tonight, minus 120.”
LAD 13, COL 0 — Trea Turner went 3-for-4 as the Dodgers routed Colorado 13-0; his 3 hits clear the over 1 hit line (ESPN box score). (Trea Turner: 3 hits)
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Guardians, money line, minus 110 versus those Red Sox. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, I've talked about him before. I really like Tristan McKenzie, this kid for the Cleveland Guardians. He's a 6'6 pitcher that weighs just 165 pounds soaking wet. So he needs to grow into his body a little more to increase his velocity. But he's only 24 years old, and he already has 47 starts at the major league level. Now, he really has transformed Cleveland's pitching staff from average to maybe top five in the AL with a 311 ERA. And the Guardians have outscored teams 26 to 5 in the last four starts. His advanced metrics aren anything super special but he not walking guys and he forcing hitters to put the ball in play which is a good sign against the Red Sox offense Boston just can score right now They without some really important guys like J Martinez Trevor Story Rafael Devers, and a couple more. But the lineup is so depleted that they have the worst record right now in baseball since June 27th. The offense is not putting the ball in play, and the bullpen is letting them down. But this is maybe the worst stretch of defensive play. I have not talked about defense in baseball all season I have ever seen from a major league team. They have 12 errors in the last seven games. What's even worse is that Cleveland has the lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball. So the ball is going to be put in play. And this banged up group of Red Sox is going to have to field the ball tonight in the major league baseball. You have to take advantage of mismatches where you can find them. This is a clear one here. Jump on the Guardians now as this line might close minus 125, minus 130. I'm on vacation. I'm winning. So we're going to move it all the way up. Cleveland Guardians money line minus 110 here. Level three lock.”
BOS 4, CLE 2 — Boston beat Cleveland 4-2; Guardians ML busts (ESPN box score).
“betonline.net line for this one. The Rays, minus 115, with the take back being plus 105 in favor of the Orioles. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so not only have the Baltimore Orioles really improved this year, they actually have a winning record right now. No one. I can't think of anyone that saw that. But I think they have also found themselves a surprise ace in Tyler Wells already. This kid is not 6'5", 6'6", which would be a tall pitcher. He is 6'8", 255 pounds, and he has a variety of pitches. But he doesn't throw in the high 90s like a lot of young pitchers do nowadays. He has really figured out his control this season, And he's another one of these guys that has benefited from the Orioles' new ballpark dimensions. Most people didn't even realize that coming into the season. They've moved the fences back. So he's just gone 4-0 with a .242 ERA in the month of June. And he's facing a raised lineup that is really struggling right now. I really do think the Orioles have what it takes to stay competitive for a while longer in the AL East as far as the wild card race here. and they're 14-12 against the AL East this year outside of New York, and they're already 2-0 in this series with a 10-4 run differential. I just don't know that this Rays team can stay in the playoff hunt with all these injuries, and I'm pretty surprised they're favorites tonight in Baltimore. Take the better team in the Baltimore Orioles. Never thought I would say that at plus 105 as they look for the series victory.”
TB 6, BAL 4 — Tampa Bay beat Baltimore 6-4 in 10 innings; Orioles ML busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Reds, minus 140 versus the Marlins. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so the Miami Marlins offense is on a hysterical year. Bad stretch over the last nine games. They've been shut out in four of the nine games. They were held to two or fewer runs and three others. They have a league-worst 548 OPS in that stretch, and this free fall has put them into a full sell mode at the trade deadline. Tonight they face the Cincinnati Reds team and a pitcher, Luis Castillo, that are playing some really good baseball recently, believe it or not. They've tied or won five of the last six series. they played against and two or more wins in this four game set would clinch another here. Louis Castillo has been playing himself into a big trade chip at the deadline to 277 ERA that drops to 173 with a 4 record here in his career against the baby Marlins And he only given up three earned runs in the last four appearances here I think these are two teams going in opposite directions. Give me the Cincinnati Reds by blowout fashion here. Blowout special, Cincinnati Reds over the Miami baby Marlins.”
CIN 5, MIA 3 — Cincinnati beat Miami 5-3 behind Luis Castillo; Reds ML covers (ESPN box score).
“Over under win total is 6.5 minus 120 for the upcoming 2022 season. And remember, Arizona State was 8-5 in 2021. Break it down for us, Lee. So you're not going to see this too often where a team is 8-5 and win total is 6.5. But it's there for a reason. So their quarterback this year looks like it's going to be Emory Jones from Florida. Inconsistent Emory, I called him. And 19 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and countless fumbles. He would have one good game and then three bad ones. And then something would happen. There'd be an injury and he'd be forced to play again, have a good game, and people would get their hopes up and then awful. That's just his storyline to his career at Florida. Now he's going to have to do it with less talent. Yeah, he's got a nice transfer running back, decent from Wyoming, Xavier, Halliday. But after that, they're going to have three of the top four receivers. Didn't start last year. They're going to have three new offensive linemen. It looks like transfers. And one of the guys, San Diego State, didn't even start. Another guy, Penn State, never started. And then another potential starter in the offensive line, get this, from not northern Arizona or a school like that, northern state. I don't even know where northern state is. I know it's a division two school. So I'm not expecting much here. And then on defense, only four starters return. They have got some problems in the secondary. They're going to hope that a kid comes in from Hawaii and starts. and another not from stanford samford comes in and starts and their coaching staff they had a they had a recruiting scandal going on they were paying these players money they had to fire five assistants after the season so new offensive coordinator glenn thomas where was he last year unlv yep not known for offense where was their defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson Well he was with him last year He was an interim defensive backs coach but before that, mainly an NFL coach. He had not coached college, get this, since 1998 with the University of Houston before that for Arizona State for five years where he's back. But, I mean, this is a guy that was out of football, totally for seven years except for one little stint with the St. Salt Lake Stallions of one of those leagues for a few months. So this is a guy that was an interim coach. All of a sudden, he's a defensive coordinator. Well, he's friends with Herm Edwards. Date back to their days in the NFL. I'm not buying it. I think Herm Edwards is going to get fired by probably game seven, game eight. I'm going under six and a half wins, minus 120. level three lock all the way up boom all the way up”
Arizona State finished the 2022 regular season 3-9, three wins under the 6.5 total (ESPN team schedule).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Royals money line minus 105 versus the Angels. Break this hidden gem down for us, Lee. Okay, so we've got another game with Shoneo Tani. It's not pitching for the L.A. Angels, and I think it's time to rule this team out of the playoff contention right now until they can win games without him pitching. they have just one win. That's right. One win in the last month with someone other than Otani pitching. And it came yesterday when they put up five runs in the first inning on the Atlanta Braves. But now Mike Trout on the injured list. Otani isn't available to pitch. And they're facing Zach Greinke tonight, who has put together one of the most impressive seasons we've seen for a 38-year-old pitcher here this season. And Greinke isn't going to break radar guns with his velocity, but he has a 186 ERA at home. Are you kidding me? And still one of the best walk rates in the league and has plenty of rest coming off the all-star break. I know that not many people are going to be watching this game with both teams out of the playoff race. And Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City's Rookie of the Year candidate injured. But the trend is pretty clear with the Angels right now. they simply can't win baseball games without Otani on the mound. Add in that Mike Trout here is out of the lineup. This is a great line for a home team in the Royals trying to build something in the second half of the season. My hidden gem, Kansas City Royals money line, minus 105 over the hapless Angels.”
7-0 — Kansas City beat the Angels 7-0 on July 25, 2022, so the Royals moneyline wins (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Rays minus 120 versus the Orioles with the take back being plus 110. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Baltimore Orioles have been the surprise team in Major League Baseball this year. Some people might talk about a few other teams, but they would get my vote. They were expected to enter another rebuild year here and to pile up prospects for 23 and 24. But instead, they're three and a half games back of a wild card spot and went on a 10-game winning streak just before the All-Star break. And I don't think they're done with this playoff push yet. This is officially the fourth-best bullpen. I bet you if you asked 10 people 9 out of 10 would not realize that And who are the three teams ahead of him Stud teams Yankees Astros Braves They taking one of the bullpen guys and starting him tonight with Austin Voth Average person looks at his ERA, 638, and they're like, I'm not touching this guy here. But, yeah, he struggled as a reliever this year. but his ERA drops from 851 to 350 when he starts games in 2022. And his metrics haven't been blowing anybody away on his fastball or his changeup, but his curveball ranks in the top 5% of all Major League pitchers in spin rate, and batters have had some trouble with it this year. So when you can get into a game early and work into a rhythm and your best pitcher, you know, they're facing Tampa Bay. He's got one of the better guys going tonight, Kluber. But you've got a guy that gets hot, and I think this guy is going to be excited for the start, and I think he's going to be on fire here. So Tampa Bay is also missing a couple key guys here, Wander Franco and Kevin Kluber. So these two guys are important guys in the lineup, and they're not in the lineup for Tampa Bay tonight. and I just think the Orioles will keep it close and should pull out the victory here at home. So we're going to go with the wrong team favorite, Baltimore Orioles money line, plus 110 over the Tampa Bay Rays.”
5-1 — Baltimore beat Tampa Bay 5-1 on July 25, 2022 (4-run 5th inning), so the Orioles moneyline wins (ESPN scoreboard).
“Boston College win total, 6.5, minus 130 on the under. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so Boston College, the last two years, has gone 6-5 and 6-6. In fact, the year before that, 6-7. So they're right there around that 6 mark, it seems like, every year. And they do return their starting quarterback, Phil Jurvik. And I think he's going to be a top-two-round pick. He is that good. But, and this is a stat I keep, it doesn't come into play often, comes into play maybe on average twice a year. When a team has to replace all five starting linemen, They've gone under the total 17 the last 20 times the last decade. They had a stud offensive lineman, Christian Mahogany. He was going to be returning, but he tore his ACL a couple weeks ago. He is out for the year. I mean when you got no returning starters here you got a real problem when you trying to run the ball And then last year it wasn like they had great protection They allowed almost 30 sacks last year So they going to have to run the ball And then on defense, they had trouble stopping the run. They gave up 4.5 yards per carry. They only returned, get this, three starters, three of the top seven on the defensive front. And I only have one of my great players, one of them being above average. So when your top seven guys on defensive line, linebacker position, are below par, and you're going with some transfers expected to start from places like Buffalo, I don't see it here. Their defense last year gave up 22.2 points per game. I think they're going to be closer to 30 points per game a year. And they could start off the season with a new offensive coordinator, John McNulty. He comes over from Notre Dame. I think it's going to take them a while. I could see them losing the first game at home against Rutgers at Virginia Tech. Yeah, they beat Maine. Then they got to go on the road and play Florida State, a much improved Louisville team in Clemson. They're probably going to be two and four heading into the final six games. And going down the stretch, they got to play. Get this. Wake Forest, NC State, and Notre Dame. Not happening. Under six and a half wins here. Level one lock to start the week.”
Boston College finished the 2022 season 3-9, well under the 6.5 win total (Wikipedia, 2022 Boston College Eagles football team).
“BetOnline.net line. We're going to roll with Claudio Hannibal Silva to win by submission, plus 600 versus Nicholas, the Danish Dynamite Dolby. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, two older guys. Dolby's 37, Silva's 39. Totally different as far as their approach. Dolby, primarily a striker, 19-4-1, 3-4-1 in the UFC. Silva, jujitsu guy, submission specialist, comes in at 14-3-5-2 in the UFC. So if they just stand up and fight I mean it going to be Dolby But if it goes to the mat which I think there a good chance I think that you going to see Silva who is currently plus 600 to submit Dalby who was submitted by Jesse Ronson, primarily a lightweight at 155 by rear naked choke, get it done. So I'm going to go with a Hannibal here. I think it's going to be his biggest triumph since crossing the Alps by elephant to defeat the Romans. So Claudio, Hannibal Silva, plus 600 submits Nicholas, Danish Dynamite Dalby.”
Claudio Silva and Nicolas Dalby actually fought at UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Aspinall on July 23, 2022 in London (not UFC 277); Dalby won by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-27), so Silva-by-submission loses (Wikipedia).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Utah Utes, their win total, 8.5, minus 140. Break this one down, Lee. Okay, so I don't think I've ever seen this before. You have a team, Utah, who I believe will be favored in every single game game, the total is eight and a half. We're not saying they have to win 10, 11, or 12 games. Just nine. That's it. I mean, they start off at home when their home schedule plays Southern Utah and San Diego State. They start the season at Florida where they'll be favored. Florida is really down. I mean, first game in a coaching staff, you're going to say that Billy Napier is going to pull out a win here with totally depleted offensive line and defensive, a bunch of guys that were supposed to come back transferred. I mean, in conference schedule, they get to play USC at home. Also UCLA, those two teams, you know, they want to take shots at for leaving the conference here. They get to play teams you know like Colorado Arizona So we going over eight and a half for Utah win total here Great coaching staff always spectacular special teams maybe the best quarterback in the pack 12 here. Good running back, running back returning, gained over a thousand yards. We've got, like I said, everything going in our favor here. We're going over eight and a half wins here. Minus one 40 Utah running. Utes blowout special.”
Utah finished the 2022 season 10-4, clearing the 8.5 win total (Wikipedia, 2022 Utah Utes football team).
“BetOnline.net line for this one, Jackson. Minus 180 versus the Phenom. Break this one down for us, Lee. So I saw Jason fight in Titan FC 41 and 42 here in Miami. And this kid is really good. I think he's underrated. I think he should be in the UFC. And his second fight in Titan FC in 2016, December 2016, six years ago, he fought Diego Lima, his brother, who's better, who's in the UFC. and he knocked him out two minutes and 10 seconds into the fight. Then he just goes on and in LFA, he wins both fights. The last five fights in Bellator, he's won. Bellator loves to build up guys. You know, if they get guys with good records, they can end up, you know, publicizing them more. And, you know, they're looking to get those headlines, Bellator is. And this guy is really good. So here's the problem with Douglas Lima, the brother of Diego Lima. So he might have been the phenom at one point, but now he does a lot of coaching. He's lost the last three fights in Bellator. He likes to try to win, you know, by knocking a guy out or going for a submission early. But if he can't get it, he's in trouble. So I just think that Jason Jackson is going to grind him out. It may not be pretty. He can do a little bit of everything here. So we're going with another blowout special. But remember, it's tonight. Jason Jackson in Bellator over Lima.”
Jason Jackson beat Douglas Lima by unanimous decision (50-45 on all three cards) at Bellator 283 on July 22, 2022, so Jackson's moneyline wins (Wikipedia).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Blue Jays minus 120 versus Red Sox. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, Kevin Gossman was on absolute fire, headed into the All-Star break, and he will have to be great for Toronto to make that postseason push. Nate Evaldi here for Boston makes his first home start since early June and struggled then. Toronto's offense has really picked it up since firing Charlie Montoyo, and I expect them to start the second half strong here. I'm laying the minus 120 money line. I love the Toronto Blue Joeys here. It's going to be a level three lock to end the week strong.”
28-5 — Toronto routed Boston 28-5 on July 22, 2022, so the Blue Jays moneyline wins (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line, the Seattle Mariners over 86.5 wins, minus 110. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, the Mariners have won 14 games in a row coming into the All-Star break, and they're completely separated themselves from the Rangers, Angels, and Athletics for second in the AL West. I think a lot of people are expecting them to slow down a bit towards the end of the year. But I strongly disagree. They're on pace for 89 wins as we stand today. I'm a huge fan of what they've already done this season. Their DH and catcher position weren't working out too well. So they got ahead of the trade deadline rush by acquiring Carlos Santana from the Royals. And they're rumored to be in on Brian Reynolds or another outfielder that has a bat at the deadline. They already ranked six in the majors in OPS. in the last month, but their pitching staff has carried them during this streak. They have the best ERA in baseball at 254 ERA since June 20th, and guys like Robbie Ray are finally starting to live up to their hype. They've had the depth and home field advantage to put themselves in a playoff spot. It just hasn't happened until about a month ago. I think they're going to start – you're going to start to see that everything just continue on here, and they're playing up to the potential for the rest of the season. I wouldn't be surprised if they close the gap there, I think, nine games back from the Astros. If they cut it to three, four, five games in a month or so and give the Astros a little run for their money in the AL West here, we're going to go with a level one lock. Seattle Mariners over 86.5 wins.”
Seattle finished the 2022 season 90-72, clearing the 86.5 win total (Wikipedia, 2022 Seattle Mariners season).
“The betonline.net line for this one, the Phillies, minus 120 to not make the playoffs. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay so you got five teams here and two of the five are going to make it as a wild card And I think Philadelphia is going to be that odd team out Why Because number one the pitching staff I like Aaron Nola. He's underrated. Six and seven record, just a 313 ERA. Also, Zach Wheeler, 8-5, 289 ERA. It's those guys that sit 3-4. Rangers, 7-5, but a 4-0-7 ERA, giving up too many hits, walking too many guys same with Kyle Gibson I mean these guys are both two two two wins above 500 he's at five and three a 435 ERA I think when you give up that many hard hit balls and you walk batters it's going to catch up with you just had a lot of balls hit right at defensive players and the other bats have helped them out but now they're going to be without Harper I think the middle of the lineup is just not even close to some of the other teams are going up against Remember San Diego, they're going to get healthy. Looks like down the stretch. I'm going to bet here Philadelphia minus 125 does not make the playoffs. Level two lock.”
Philadelphia went 87-75 and made the 2022 playoffs as a wild card, ultimately reaching the World Series, so the 'miss the playoffs' pick loses (Wikipedia, 2022 Philadelphia Phillies season).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Cardinals over 86 wins, minus 110. Break it down for us, Lee. It's starting to look like Juan Soto is going to be traded by Washington in the next two weeks. There's just no way that the Nationals trade him inside the division. So I think the Mets are going to be out of getting him. And that basically, I think, leaves the Padres, the Yankees, and the Cardinals as your frontrunners. So if you add this guy to the lineup, that is easily a 90 win team at Bush Stadium. To add to that, the lineup is finally hitting like we expected when they traded for Paul Goldschmidt and also Nolan Arianda. So they fifth in Major League Baseball and hits 13th and walk rate and 11th and OPS In fact if you look what their expected record should be it 54 and 40 So they really been unlucky by all accounts so far So they'll need to address the starting rotation for another arm. But they're already ninth in ERA and 13th in quality starts. So their pitching issues really aren't indicative of how good they already are. This is a very experienced team, top to bottom, that always makes a big run in August or September. I wouldn't be surprised if they lead Frog Milwaukee for the division lead sometime soon. So they also have the easiest schedule remaining in Major League Baseball with 44 games against the Nationals, who could be without Soto, the Reds, the Cubs, the Pirates, and the Rockies here. we're gonna go all the way up level three lock st louis cardinals over 86 wins”
St. Louis finished the 2022 season 93-69, clearing the 86-win total (Wikipedia, 2022 St. Louis Cardinals season).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Seahawks win total, five and a half, minus 110. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Well, if you're a C.L. Seahawks season ticket holder, you're not going to hear this. You're not going to see it in the packet you get for your renewal. You're not going to hear it from the coaches. You're not going to hear it from the players. But this is a full rebuild. If they really wanted to win, they'd go out there and get a quarterback. two guys that they have i mean these are not championship level quarterback drew lock i mean mistake prone i mean he's not at a high level um geno smith i mean we've seen him even his best games he couldn't win games so i think they're limited i think they're in a full rebuild here your defense is okay i mean they had a great offense but um i don't think they can win either way i don't think they can win low scoring games i don't think they're going many high scoring games you're seeing this the win total it started here at five and a half and it hasn't moved and most people bet over so i'm going with the under i mean there's 17 games playing the regular season i got this team pegged at three and 14 at best four and 13 here if it's that low it's that low for a reason here we're going in under here under five and a half wins for the seattle seahawks here”
Seattle finished the 2022 regular season 9-8, well above the 5.5 win total, so the under loses (Wikipedia, 2022 Seattle Seahawks season).
“betonline.net line for this one vanderbilt minus six and a half versus Hawaii. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so you're probably saying Vanderbilt favored by six and a half points. They shouldn't be favored by six and a half points against most high school teams, but this is the second year of the rebuild. He is setting up themselves up with a decent foundation here They not going to be competitive against the SEC but they have a couple quarterbacks returning I think their offensive line is still going to be good They have a couple playmakers at receiver. I don't know if people realize this, but Hawaii was a couple of boats away from disbanding the program. They were hemorrhaging money. They play on campus. They are redoing the stadium there. It's going to take a couple more years of playing. I think it's in front of 7,000 or 9,000 fans, so no home field advantage really for Hawaii here. They only returned six starters for Timmy Chang, who takes over the program here. They have a whole new system, bring in a transfer quarterback from Washington State who really didn't play much, a couple decent receivers who can play out of the slot, but no home run hitters, no running game. The offensive line was terrible. They were giving up four or five sacks every single game here. I just think Vanderbilt's here on a different level here. I think you want to get this game now before it moves up to seven or eight points here. I'm going with Vanderbilt, believe it or not, here. Minus is six and a half over Hawaii.”
63-10 — Vanderbilt beat Hawaii 63-10 on August 27, 2022, a 53-point margin that easily covers -6.5 (Wikipedia, 2022 Vanderbilt Commodores football team).
“betonline.net, line for this one. It doesn't matter what team you take. It's minus 110. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, I mean, why don't they play hacky sack at the end of the game to decide a winner? I mean, this is ridiculous. I mean, if it's tied after nine innings, they're going to have three players from each team take three swings. So not the way I used to grow up when you see Pete Rose diving, you know, head first into the catcher to try to score a run. But I think AL has a big advantage here. I think this line is priced wrong. I think the AL lineup is better. Look at the bottom four batters of the NL lineup to start the game. Maybe the weakest in recent memory here. Shane McClanahan, starter here. I think he going to win the Cy Young here for Tampa Bay for the AL The NL you know I know they going to start here with Clayton Kershaw and he a hometown guy but Tony Gosselin I thought he deserved it Over him also, Sandy Alcantara, you know, they get into these lifetime achievement awards, but what has Clayton Kershaw done in the biggest moments? He's failed, and I think the pressure is going to be on him. Wouldn't be shocked if AAL starts with a 1-0, 2-0 lead after a couple innings here. I'm going with the AAL to continue to win. They've won every game since 2012. They're going to win again this year. Level two lock here.”
3-2 — The American League beat the National League 3-2 in the 2022 MLB All-Star Game, so the AL moneyline wins (Wikipedia, 2022 Major League Baseball All-Star Game).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. West Virginia plus 2,500 to win the conference. Break this one down for us, Lee. I have a feeling if there's going to be a conference where it comes down to the end and we might see four or five and even six teams with a game left having a shot to win the conference, I think it's the Big 12. Now, OU's a prohibitive favorite at plus 175, and they have Dylan Gabriel. I think that offense is going to be great, but that defense is trash. I mean, they could give up 35, 40 points again. They're that bad. Texas, you might as well light your money on fire. They're not ready yet. They're recruiting, but they're at least a year away, in my opinion. Oklahoma State, we know Gundy. We know what he does. He's never wins a conference late in the season. They usually have problems and lose game after game. Kansas State, Adrian Martinez, turnovers. I mean, that says it all. Baylor, I mean, they're solid. Seven to one, I considered it. Iowa State's 18 to one. They lost practically their entire team and all their starters to the draft and graduation. West Virginia I mean they get JT Daniels I like their coach Brown I just think this is a team that could be under the radar I think the schedule their home and away schedule benefits them they also start off the season and I think they're going to be tested I think when you're tested early I think it helps you sometimes later in the season they open up at Pittsburgh playing that game then Kansas Towson and then at Virginia Tech I think those two away games is going to test this team if JT Daniels bounces back and is advertised this could be a really good team they also return four out of five starters on the offensive line West Virginia plus 2500 that a little went off a whole lot boom there it is right there and man I covered the big 12 for a very long time so know what West Virginia brings to the table uh like what Neil Brown's got going there when he's got cooking so that would be a hell of a win right there that'd be a hell of a season if West Virginia is able to pull off the Big 12 championship right there. But it's always that's why we watch the games, right? That's why we watch them, just to see exactly how it all shakes out. There you go. West Virginia plus 2,500 to win the Big 12.”
Kansas State beat TCU 31-28 in overtime to win the 2022 Big 12 Championship; West Virginia's futures bet busts (per the Big 12 Championship Game result).
“Betonline.net live for Corey Seager to win the whole thing. 11 to 1 odds right now. Lee, break this one down for us. Yeah, so I think Corey Seager is your best long shot to win the home run derby. Pete Alonzo, the back-to-back winner in 20 and 21, already has more career earnings, believe it or not, from the Derby than he does in his career with the Mets. So who knows how far his motivation and energy will take him in this one. Kyle Schwarber, streaky hitter that probably will be a slight favorite, but he doesn't have the smoothest swing. And I don know if he can keep that going all tournament long And the next three Soto Acuna and Rodriguez are all younger guys that don have much experience in these festivities Corey Seager a former Dodger who is very familiar with this park after playing there his entire career until this year, is tied for third most home runs in the majors the last 30 days with nine. So he's coming to this one on fire. He's facing Julio Rodriguez, who will have, I think, a lot of nerves participating in his first All-Star weekend. Not only is Seager familiar with Dodger Stadium, but he obviously has the motivation to show this crowd a good time. Let's take the former Dodger, Corey Seager, 11 to 1 here to win the whole thing. Bet a little, win a whole lot, times two.”
Juan Soto beat Julio Rodriguez 19-18 in the final round to win the 2022 Home Run Derby at Dodger Stadium; Corey Seager's futures bet busts.
“BetOnline.net line for this one. LSU under seven wins plus 115. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so LSU right now, and I know they're all excited, you know, about getting the new coach. I mean, this is going to be, they think, a fun season. But Brian Kelly, yeah, I think he's great. But they only return 11 starters, six on offense, five on defense. A projected starter at quarterback Jaden Daniels. I just don't think this kid is accurate enough. Didn't do much at Arizona State. They're expecting and hoping that three guys, three guys who transferred in, Kit Brooks from Arkansas, Garner comes in from Louisiana Lafayette, and then also a kid, Jerick Bernard Converse, from Oklahoma State to come right in and start. I mean, they lost their entire secondary. And then also expecting a kid that had three starts, Jay Ward, to step in. I think their defense is going to get torched, just like it happened in 2020 in the COVID season where their secondary couldn't card anyone here. So seven wins? I don't see it. I mean, OK, they're going to beat Southern. They'll beat New Mexico, but they open up at Florida State. I mean Florida State opening weekend in New Orleans that not a gimme They got to go to Auburn They got to go to Florida Arkansas and Texas A those could all be easy losses and even at home they got to play Alabama and Tennessee and Mississippi State here seven wins we're going under level two lock LSU under seven wins plus 115”
LSU finished the 2022 season 9-4 overall (including the SEC Championship Game loss to Georgia), well over the 7 win total (ESPN team schedule).
“win total for the auburn tigers in 2022 over six and a half wins is minus 130 under six and a half is plus 115 thoughts on this one lee wow you talk about a tough schedule the auburn Tigers and the schedule that they have to play this year rated as the toughest schedule in college football. Okay. So they get to play Mercer and San Jose State to start the season. But after that, they've got Penn State and then their conference schedule. This is not going to be easy at all for this team. You know, I think Brian Harsin's in trouble, even though this is a second year. You know, they just, how they just messed up the clock and not being able to pull up that win against Alabama. All they need to do is run the football. They end up winning that game. Instead, they threw the football, gave Alabama too much time to get the ball back and move down the field Both their quarterbacks TJ Finley Zach Calzada who transferred from Texas A or pedestrian Hey I love Tank Bigsby running the football almost 1 yards rushing But other than that, they don't have a receiver that scares me. And you look at the defense, they're counting on three transfers that were just average and junior college guys to come in and start and have good season for them and have a decent defense. I don't see it. I think Brian Harsin's in trouble here. I, no one wants to be the Auburn coach nowadays when you're going up against Alabama and Texas A&M and that conference, even some of these other teams are on, you know, just getting so much stronger, like Ole Miss and Arkansas six and a half. I think that wind totals, uh, you're going to definitely go under here. We're going to go under six and a half wins plus 115.”
Auburn finished the 2022 regular season 5-7 (2-6 SEC), under the 6.5 win total (ESPN team schedule).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Yankees minus 150 versus Red Sox. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so I know the Yankees had to go 10 innings to win the last two games, but, I mean, their heart is set on playing this game and starting to get some revenge for those last two games that they blew over the weekend against Boston. And they're going to be ready. They're hitting. When they've got Stanton and they've got Judge hitting, these two guys are starting to get hot again. Look out. So just one of them getting hot in the rest of this lineup is scary good. So they've got the better pitcher here. I think they still have the better bullpen here. You know, Boston just don't have the talent here. Trevor Story is even questionable whether he will play Nathan Evaldi. coming off the disabled list, going to have to try to pitch this game, first game back, going into New York. Are you kidding me here? I like the Yankees here. Blowout special, money line over the Boston Red Sox.”
BOS 5, NYY 4 — Red Sox beat Yankees 5-4 in 11 innings; Yankees ML -150 busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for Derek Carr having the most regular season touchdown passes in 2022. Right now sitting at 12-1 odds. Lee, break this one down for us. So this is a little preview. You know, next week some people might be thinking, oh, baseball, all-star game, not going to be much going on on the show. Well, it's going to be loaded. I have been studying, starting last week, some player props, also some team props. So stay tuned to the shows Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. It's going to be NFL and college football loaded. Got some great situational plays for people to bet and make some money. So I'm looking at the passing touchdowns for the season. And there's some guys people love. I mean, people are going to bet Tom Brady. 35 and a half touchdowns he's projected to throw this year. Well, doesn't have the weapons. Lost Gronk. Lost one of his best wideouts. I don't think he's going to even be close to what he did last year. Patrick Mahomes. I mean, 34 and a half touchdowns, he lost Thrill Hill. I mean, I see him going way under. Matthew Stafford lost one of his key weapons. Usually these teams that win the Super Bowl, the quarterbacks don't perform to last year's expectations. Even Justin Herbert, who I think is great, I think they're going to run the ball a lot more with the addition of Isaiah Spiller. I think Spiller might have six or eight touchdowns, so his number could be down. Josh Allen, I mean, hey, I love Buffalo, but I think that's probably going to be Derek Carr's biggest competitor. You add a weapon like Devontae Adams, I think you can take the top off the defense here. I mean, they're tight in Waller, who I think is great, maybe top two or top three in the NFL. He should be more healthy. Offensive line should be in better shape here. I'm going with Derek Carr 12 to one to have the most touchdown passes in the NFL in the regular season next year. I love this bet. Bet a little. Win a whole lot. Derek Carr, most touchdown passes regular season next year in the NFL.”
Patrick Mahomes led the NFL with 41 passing touchdowns in the 2022 regular season; Derek Carr threw 24, so Carr's futures bet busts (NFL.com official stats). (Mahomes 41 passing TDs; Carr 24 passing TDs)
“BetOnline.net line for this one. We going to roll over nine runs in the Braves and Washington Nationals game Break this one down Lee Oh Patrick Corbin has he had trouble with this Atlanta lineup I mean when he taken to the Hill recently he has over a 10 ERA facing this Atlanta Braves lineup. Atlanta's starting to hit the ball hard. It doesn't show up in runs, but hitting a lot of balls right to players. And I think those hard hit balls are going to start falling here. Washington can score, and they're facing maybe the Braves' weakest pitcher here, Ian Anderson, who's 7-5 with a 490-80 ERA. So it's Friday night. They'll have a big crowd here. Even in Washington, maybe half the fans will be there to see the Atlanta Braves. The Atlanta Braves have a huge following around the country. So, hey, even if you get to, let's say, 4-4, you're going to push on the total because you've got extra innings. And what we've seen in these extra inning games, putting a runner on second base. We've seen four, five, and six runs scored in extra innings here. So we're going with a lock here. I love the over nine runs. Atlanta and Washington here. We're going with a level two lock to end the week.”
ATL 8, WSH 4 — Braves beat Nationals 8-4 (12 combined runs); Over 9 cashes (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Pistons, minus 3 versus the Cavaliers. Thoughts on this one, Lee. So this is really strange. I mean, the statistical chance that this would happen has got to be 1-2%. 30 teams in the NBA, 30 teams competing in the NBA Summer League, and you've got 17 teams at 2-1. No one is 3-0. 17 at 2-1. You've got 11 at 1-2 and 2 at 0-3. They're done. So here's what's crazy about this. So these 2-1 teams are scrambling. They need a nice point differential. So I think that plays into who you play in the next game as far as the playoffs are concerned. Or if your record isn't good, you have won just one more game. So the situation here for Detroit is I've watched this team is I think they've gotten better. Number one, they have a lot of depth. They also take care of the ball. And I mean, in all three of their games, they've had at least three players on their team have four more assists. and their opponent this game, Cleveland, they've only had one in each of the three games have more than four assists. So Cleveland's just not sharing the ball. I just don't think it's a real talented team. The backup point guard and shooting guard here are Charlie Moore from Miami. He had a great run in the tournament, shares the ball well, and Buddy Boeheim, who can stick to three. So I like the way they put together this roster. you know you look at the players that they drafted doing real well in summer league so I think Detroit's going to be a team that's going to I don't know if they're going to shock some teams but as we talked about Oklahoma City yesterday they're going to be a fun team to watch and I think Detroit is building also and it starts in summer league so I think they're looking to go three and one I think they're going to get it done I think minus three is a short price here as they want to pour on. They want to get a nice point differential so they can play a better team in their next game here. They're playing for rings, I think, for the first time ever in the NBA Summer League. That's just a small bit more maybe exciting than winning some of these Summer League or these tournaments that these kids are in. Every kid's flashing a fake ring around, so they win some type of national tournament. Let's go with Detroit here. Minus three here um i think this is going to be our first we're going to start off the right off the bat here with the show a level three lock on thursday detroit pistons summer league”
CLE 82, DET 79 — Cavaliers beat Pistons 82-79 in Las Vegas Summer League; Detroit lost outright, so Pistons -3 busts (there is no push on a straight loss) (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline line for this one The Mets' money line, minus 130 versus the Cubs. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, there's a couple things you have to consider when you're betting on a game in Wrigley Field. The first is the wind. The north side of Chicago is affected by wind more than probably any other ballpark in baseball. today it's flowing in from center field with sunny skies and no rain but you also have to be able to figure out which pitcher that benefits more and I think it's going to help Carlos Carrasco a lot more today so Carrasco was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the first month and a half then he had a really bad June but now he looks to be back on track so you got to look at at everything. You can't just look at a pitcher's ERA and does he give up more ground balls or fly balls. He's starting to come back and pitch while he has a 238 ERA in July and he has 13 strikeouts and 11 innings so far. But I think the wind situation at Chicago helps him today because he's an extreme ground ball pitcher and he has way more experience in this situation than his counterpart, Kagan Thompson. Carrasco's 45.6 ground ball rate is 28th in the majors, and the few fly balls that he gives up need to stay in the park. He has a good profile to take advantage of those wind conditions, and I don't think his roadie era or June performances tell the whole story here, and I really like his familiarity with these windy stadiums. I think it plays a big part here today. So you're getting a well-rounded Mets team at a cheap price here. Take advantage of it here. We're going to go with a blowout special, New York Mets money line over the Chicago Cubs.”
NYM 8, CHC 0 — Mets shut out Cubs 8-0 at Wrigley Field; Mets ML -130 cashes (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline line for this one The Brewers minus 115 versus the Giants with the take being plus 105 Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, we talked about this last week with Tony Gosselin and Sandy Alcantara with respect to the Major League Baseball All-Star Game. I think these two guys, especially the starting pitchers, really have a chip on their shoulders to make and start for their leagues in the All-Star festivities. I don't know if there was a bigger snub this year than San Francisco's Carlos Rodin. He signed that big contract in the offseason, and he's lived up to every penny of it. He's gone 8-5 with a 270 ERA, and yet he didn't make it. Are you kidding me? He just threw a complete game one-run performance against the rival Padres the other night. He's got a chip on his shoulders. And I think he's out for blood after all this. He has only pitched 39 innings at home this year, but he has 56 strikeouts to 14 walks, and he's given up a combined two runs in the last three home appearances in San Francisco. I like Corbin Burns just as much, but suddenly the Brewers have some bullpen here concerns. They have a couple of relievers on the IL, and Josh Hader, who is supposed to be their best closer in baseball, has blown two saves in the last week and gave up a walk-off three-run homer yesterday to the Twins. Keep in mind, too, the Brewers are hitting just 221 against lefties this season, so an early lead the Giants here can put up. I think they're going to be able to hold on. I think this is a huge series for both teams to get up for, and game one is going to go to the home team here. We're going to go with the San Francisco Giants money line plus 105.”
MIL 3, SF 2 — Brewers beat Giants 3-2 in 10 innings at Oracle Park; Giants ML +105 busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line. For this one, we're going to roll with the A's first five innings. Money line plus 160 versus Rangers. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, I know the Oakland A's are a bad team this year, and there is no denying that. However, if there is one bright spot for this team this season, it is their young pitcher, Paul Blackburn. The guy is an ace. He has the .336 ERA. But even more impressively, he's 5-0 with a .128 ERA on the road and a .157 ERA against teams with losing records. If you do want to be that true ace in the majors, you have to be able to go on the road and you have to be able to beat these bad teams. And that's what he does. For Texas, you know, we talked about John Gray last week. He's sort of middling piece in that Rangers rotation. But I've been watching this guy this year and I'm just not impressed. I don't think this line really takes into account how much of a better pitcher Blackburn is than Gray. With a guy like Blackburn on the mound, it doesn't matter how bad your lineup is offensively. All you need is one or two runs in the first five innings, and that should be enough here. I'm going to stick to the first five innings to avoid both bullpens, but keep an eye on Paul Blackburn in the future. He is probably the only reason to bet on the A's this season. I think he has great value here. Bet a little, win a whole lot. Oakland A's first five innings money line plus 160.”
TEX 5, OAK 0 (through 5 innings) — Rangers led Oakland 5-0 through 5 innings (all 5 runs in the 1st); Athletics First 5 ML +160 busts (ESPN box score line score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Padres minus one and a half runs, minus 105 versus the Rockies. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, I think Chad Kuhl hit his peak a couple of starts ago against the L.A. Dodgers. He had his first career-complete game shut out in that appearance on June 27th, allowing just three runs and only picking up five strikeouts. His last two starts, I think it's closer to what we should have expected from him. I mean, he gave up nine own runs in ten innings against one of the worst offenses in the league, Arizona. This is a guy whose hard-hit percentage is three percentage points higher than his career average. And as high as it has ever been, and his strikeout percentage is the lowest in his career this season, too. It looks like San Diego's lineup is also getting healthier here. Manny Machado played well in the first couple games back. You also can't ignore the bullpens here at Coors Field. and Colorado's reliever ERA is still second worst in the majors with Joe Musgrove on the mound here. I think San Diego will have no problem building an early lead here and holding on to it here. I'm going to lay the one-and-a-half runs, minus 105. Blowout special San Diego Padres here over the Colorado Rockies.”
COL 10, SD 6 — Rockies beat Padres 10-6 at Coors Field; Padres -1.5 busts with the outright loss (ESPN box score).
“The BetOnline.net line for this one, the Thunder minus three and a half versus the Kings. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so this Oklahoma City team, we haven't talked about them much. There has been absolutely almost nothing to feel good about them if you're a fan of the Thunder the last couple years. But, you know, there might be some hope finally. In the draft, Chet Holmgren was pick number two, and boy, does he look good. You team in with Josh Gidney, who they had playing here in the summer league. Those two just seem to have a really good chemistry. They also got the number 11 pick from the Knicks, and it was Mondain, and he looks solid. And you know they even had a pick early in the second round number 34 Jalen Williams These guys look I just think really good And you mix that with a couple guys you know who they picked up who have some NBA experience And, you know, that can be, you know, real important. You get the combination of everything coming together. It looks like they're having fun. They're playing hard here. Don't think they're playing one of the better teams here. So I just think Sacramento just plays undisciplined ball here. And I think this line is short. We won last night with the Lakers. We're going to go for 2-0 in the NBA Summer League. We're going to lay the three and a half points tonight. We're going to go with the Oklahoma City Thunder over the Sacramento Kings here. Level two luck.”
OKC 86, SAC 80 — Thunder beat Kings 86-80 in Las Vegas Summer League; Thunder -3.5 covers the 6-point win (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Clippers, minus three and a half versus the Lake Show. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So I've been watching a lot of NBA summer league games in the background when I'm watching a couple baseball games. And I think I found something here. You know, when betters watch games and when you see that team for the first time and they don't perform, the public just starts going against them. And the Lakers in their first game, they got housed by Phoenix, who's actually, I think, a really talented team. They happen to lose their second game, but I think they're really good. So I think a lot of people don't realize that. And then they lose a close game in their second game. there's a lot of fans that come see the L.A. Lakers, even their summer league team. So I just think that this team did not play well. They lost their last game right at the end. And I just think that I saw something in the end of that game. I think they're starting to come together. Maybe the pressure is off. There's so much pressure in that first game. All the Lakers fans there. LeBron was there. The GM was there. I think they're going to shoot better shooting threes and possibly get some easy baskets in the open court against the Clippers team. I think it's nothing special. I'm picking the three and a half points. L.A. Lakers tonight in NBA Summer League here.”
LAL 83, LAC 72 — Lakers beat Clippers 83-72 in Las Vegas Summer League; Lakers +3.5 easily covers with the outright win (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Astros minus 120 versus the Angels. Break this one down for us, Lee. So the LA Angels, and we've been talking about it for a couple weeks now, I think they're maybe the worst team in baseball when Otani or Trout are not at the top of their games. Those two guys alone have, I mean, you look at their war, it's just, they're just in a different atmosphere than most of these players. They're just so high and they're that efficient here. So the rest of their roster is just awful. I mean the rest of the pitching staff starters Syndergaard has had a few moments but doesn get a whole lot of run support The bullpen terrible You know without those two guys they just don run They don't hit for contact, not clutch at all here. Yeah, Houston did lose Alvarez for a couple of games, but there is a reason this team is competing with the Yankees right now for the best team in the American League. They have depth up and down the lineup, and they are probably the best pitching staff in baseball and not to mention Houston has dominated the Angels in recent memory going six and two the last eight games in Anaheim this one shouldn't be close here Houston Astros Moneyline blowout special”
HOU 6, LAA 5 — Astros beat Angels 6-5; Astros ML -120 cashes (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. the Cubs money line minus 115 versus Orioles. Thoughts on this one, Lee. Yeah. So, you know, we've talked about Jordan Lyles a lot and his success at home. But the best thing about baseball, it's data driven. And there's certain guys, you know, you can't explain it. They're great at home and they're just not good when they play on the road. And it is not carried over when he's going on the road. His ERA is a full three points higher than at home. and all of his home runs have been on the road. Playing in Chicago against a Cubs team that actually hits quite a few home runs could be a problem here for Baltimore. I think the Orioles' recent magic hits a hiccup here at Wrigley Field, and I think the Cubs right now are starting to come together. They actually have some young talent. You can't just look at records. You can't just look at batting averages. You've got to watch these teams are starting to come together. It seems like they're having fun, hitting, running, stealing bases here, and they're winning some close games. I think Chicago Cubs are the play here. So we're going to go with a level one lock. Chicago Cubs money line, minus 115 over the Baltimore Orioles.”
BAL 4, CHC 2 — Orioles beat Cubs 4-2 at Wrigley Field; Cubs ML -115 busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The White Sox minus 115 with the take back being plus 105. Break this one down for us, Lee. I think it's time Tony La Russa gets fired as the White Sox manager. I've talked about it a couple times, and hopefully they hear what I'm saying if they want to have a chance to get to the playoffs. You're starting to see some leaks from inside the organization that there is turmoil in the locker room and players are starting to break off into clicks. it's one thing for the players to dislike the manager but it's another thing for the players to dislike each other remember that and Lance Lynn tonight started as one of those emotional guys that is I think surely in the middle of it all as the team leader so his problem is that he has not performed well all season he didn't pitch until June and actually it's mid-June and he's given up five or more earned runs in three of his last five starts. So as long as the White Sox keep failing, I really don't believe they should be a road favorite against a Cleveland team that is simply better here. Wrong team favorite, Cleveland Guardians plus 105 against the White Sox.”
CLE 8, CHW 4 — Guardians beat White Sox 8-4 at Progressive Field; Guardians ML +105 cashes (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Nebraska win total 7.5 minus 110. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so when I first looked at this, I'm like, wow, there is no way this team and their head coach, Scott Frost, is going to make it. But the more I dug into it and I watched their spring game and I looked at all the changes and the guys that they brought in, I'm thinking, well, maybe. And here's what I see here. So made a change at quarterback. So last year and for the last four years, Adrian Martinez just had not gotten better. Only 14 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions and a lot of key interceptions at the most inopportune time hurt this team. So Scott Frost, four years, 15 and 29. In fact, 5 and 20 in one score games. Last year, how about this? They outscored their opponents on average 28 to 23 and outgained them by 82 yards per game. but somehow they ended up with a 3-9 record. Eight close losses by eight points or less, and their three wins were by 45-25 in 49 games. I mean, every single game that was close, they found a way to lose here. Just felt that looking at the quarterback change, bringing Casey Thompson for Texas, I don't think it was his fault that they lost. Their defense gave up a bunch of games where they had leads in the last minute, and I think he's a strong quarterback. Brought in a running back. Remember this name, Anthony Grant. Where's number 23? He was at Florida State. Then I think went to New Mexico Military Institute for two years. Led the nation in rushing, JUCO-wise, over the last two years. So here's a kid I think that has a fifth gear. Here's a kid I think that will take him to the next level. last year only 20 sacks i think their defensive line is going to be even better garrett nelson a kid uh had five sacks last year i think he's going to end up with double digit sacks this year and a few other things they brought in an offensive coordinator a new one and mark whipple um used to be the head coach at umass but the last two years was the offensive coordinator pitt and did a really good job there just don't think he's one of these guys that's a good head coach but a really good coordinator. He also spent some time at Miami. So got to watch the way he calls plays and works with quarterbacks And I think he does a good job here And for the first time in the Scott Frost era they brought in a special teams coach Yeah believe it or not they had no special teams coach They were divvying it up between each of the coaches. I mean, they had punts blocked. I think three of them, I think they had three returns against them in the special teams. Out of 130 teams, they ranked 129th. They just get into the middle of the pack, They're going to be a pretty good team and a special teams team that's going to be have to be reckoned with. They brought in a kicker, a transfer from Farmer Newsgood and a punter from Montana who is the FCS punter of the year. I'm going over seven and a half wins minus one ten. And then on top of that, the schedule, they end up opening this season against Northwestern in Dublin, Ireland. I think they're going to win that game. They'll beat North Dakota. They'll beat Georgia Southern. They got a shot against Oklahoma at home. They play Indiana, who's down, and then play at Rutgers and Purdue, and then Illinois. This is a team that, believe it or not, could be 7-1 headed into the last four games, and then all they got to do is win one game between Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa. I think it's doable. I think they're going to be the shocker college team. I'm going with the Nebraska Cornhuskers over seven and a half wins, minus one 10 level two lock.”
Nebraska finished the 2022 regular season 4-8 (3-6 Big Ten), well under the 7.5 win total (ESPN team schedule).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Cardinals, minus 110 versus the Phillies. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Two really good pitchers. I mean, Zach Wheeler. I mean, what has this guy done here this season? 7-4 record, 266 ERA. But, big but, struggled on the road. When he is not playing at home, he has a 445 ERA. On the other side, we go to Adam Wainwright. Maybe one of the best home pitchers we've ever seen in Major League Baseball. 6-6 on the year, 326 ERA, very good. But at home, that ERA drops to 225. I don't know what it is. Maybe his bed is real comfortable. He sleeps in or he's got a ritual where he eats a certain food or goes to a certain restaurant. But, boy, does he feel at home when he's on the bump there. And I just think that Philly, for them to be successful, they've got to knock it out of the park, and they're without Harper. He's going to be gone for a while. or they've got to steal bases. They're eighth in Major League Baseball and steals, and I don't see them, you know, staying at that lofty average where they've been. So, hey, I understand the Cardinals haven't been playing great, but it looks like they bounced out of it with a win in the last game. So maybe they're starting a nice run here. You like to get on teams, and you see them starting to turn things around. We're going to go with the Cardinals here. I think the wrong team is favored. St. Louis Cardinals over the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.”
STL 0, PHI 2 — Phillies beat Cardinals 2-0 on two Alec Bohm solo homers; St. Louis moneyline busts (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Jared VanderRaw minus 190 versus Vanilla Gorilla. Lee, thoughts on this one? So if you look up a picture of Sherman, he looks like, you know, that bully that you had in school and guy that's, you know, shaking down people for lunch money. Always telling you how great he is. But he's just that guy. He just doesn't do it for me. I just don't think, hey, and being a UFC fighter, you're at the next level. You're at the very highest level. So both of these guys are career 60% fighters. Now, they won, obviously, a lot more than they lost before they reached the UFC. But since they got to the UFC, both guys are one and four. But Van Der Ra, he will come in at the highest allowed weight in the UFC. He'll be at 265, 266. Sherman, you know, 245, 250 range, prounces around on his tippy toes, touching his gloves, acting like a tough guy before the fight starts. He just doesn't have many skills here. So just think that Van Der Rohe has a ton of heart I think he fights a lot harder Three years younger has better skills here and also Sherman lacks in cardio So fought the same fighter. They had one similar fight against the same guy recently in the last two years, and I thought Van Der Rohe got robbed in a split decision, and Sherman never in the fight here. So I'm going with Van Der Rohe. I think he wins this one likely by ground and pound, and he's going to raise his record, even though both guys are exactly career 60% fighters, and both are 1-4 in the UFC. He's going to raise his mark over the 60% mark and drop the vanilla gorilla below the Mendoza line here. So we'll go with Jared Vander Ra here. Blowout special over the vanilla gorilla.”
Chase Sherman TKO'd Jared Vanderaa via punches at 3:10 of round 3 at UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev; Vanderaa moneyline busts (Wikipedia event results table).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Browns minus one against the Panthers. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so the line opened with Cleveland minus three, and I thought the line maybe should have been even four, four and a half. And now with the news that Baker Mayfield has been traded to Carolina, The line's dropped all the way down to one here. And I think there's a good chance that Watson's going to be suspended for at least the first four to six games. So now the public is thinking, wow, we've got a quarterback here. Gets to face his old team opening week, week one. He has the advantage. He knows the defenses. I think it actually works the other way. I think Cleveland knows Baker Mayfield inside and out. They'll employ some blitzes that really keep him on his heels here. That offensive line for Carolina, awful. 24th to 28th in pass protection and run blocking. So I think he's going to get hit here early and often, probably throw a couple interceptions. I think the pressure's on Baker, and it may not look real pretty here, opening one here in Carolina. So I'm going to go with that Cleveland Browns here, minus one here.”
CLE 26, CAR 24 — Browns beat Panthers 26-24 on a late York field goal in the Week 1 2022 opener; Cleveland -1 covers by a 2-point margin (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Twins minus 110 versus the Rangers. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay so the Texas Rangers are going to eventually start really going down the tubes here And I think they going to hit a really long losing streak It started on Wednesday They lost to Kansas City 2 had a lot of chances in that game couldn't come through. Then they went to the Mets, lost 2-3. First game, they lost 4-3. A lot of guys on base, they just couldn't drive them in. And then they lost all three to Baltimore. Now, they've actually been a better road team this year. So when they price games, they price games a lot of times, you know, as the home team getting a big advantage here. You know, usually 20, 30 cents on the line. But this Minnesota team plays actually really well on the road, 22 and 20 away from home. The Rangers better on the road here. So in the matchup of Gray's here, both pitchers have the last name Gray. I think it favors Sonny Gray here. He's won each of his last two road starts. He's going to be facing a Rangers team that hits just 233 at home here. He's pitched much better on the road here. And John Gray, I think his time has come here. So I think everything, if you look at it, unless something weird happens and Sonny just doesn't have his stuff tonight, I think you're right here with the Minnesota Twins here. I'm going to go with a level two lock to end the week here on a high note Minnesota Twins over the Texas Strangers”
MIN 5, TEX 6 — Rangers beat Twins 6-5 on a Corey Seager three-run homer; Minnesota moneyline busts (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for the Tulane Green Wave. Over six wins, plus 110 for Tulane. Break this one down for us, Lee. So as I'm going through teams, studying probably three or four teams each day, you know, where the dog days of summer, that's where I get ahead. I'm watching spring games. And there's a lot of teams, you know, I think, you know, they're going to be kind of pretty much as expected. But Tulane had a rare, really bad season last year. They went 2-10. And if you look at the talent, it just doesn't match up with the record. I mean, this is a team, they lost by five points against Oklahoma opening day. That game, I think, was supposed to be played at home. They had to go on the road, play Oklahoma in that game too. But in that game, Michael Pratt, their quarterback, got hurt. And he hurt his shoulder. He was never the same. He missed a bunch of games. And then on top of that, just injuries up and down the lineup. Lost five games by less than a touchdown. This year they get back nine starters on offense, nine on defense. Open this season against UMass. I mean, they should win that game by 30 or 40. Alcorn State at home, that's two wins. The fourth week of the season, play home against Southern Miss. That should be a win. Play at home against East Carolina. That should be a win. I mean, this is a team that's going to start off with three or four wins, and a lot of these other teams like Cincinnati are not going to be as good as last year. They can beat Tulsa on the road. USF, they're not there at all. They're one of the worst teams in the conference. Even teams like Memphis and Houston, they can beat those teams. So six, are you kidding me? I think this is at least a seven or eight win team here. Willie Fritz, one of the best coaches. A lot of people don't know the name right off, but he coached at Georgia Southern. They built them into an absolute powerhouse and had not had a losing season the three seasons before that. So just a case where everything went wrong got a lot of guys back a lot of good transfers especially on the defense will fill in here They had 34 sacks last year 34 Usually bad teams in conferences like that. You know, they've got like 12, 15, 18 sacks, 34 sacks. They'll build on that this year. I'm going with Tulane. Over six wins, plus 110 here.”
Tulane went 11-2 (7-1 AAC) in the 2022 regular season, clearing over 6 wins, before beating USC in the Cotton Bowl (ESPN team schedule).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Dodgers, minus one-and-a-half runs, minus 125 versus the Cubbies. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Well, what we're seeing is the two best teams, I think, in baseball, who are the Dodgers and the Yankees. When they win, they generally win by more than one run. And so you can lay the one-and-a-half runs. If you're going to face the Cubs team pitching Mark Leiter Jr., He's 2-2, but this 31-year-old righty, a .485 ERA, just walks too many guys. This little Dodgers lineup is loaded, one through nine. Not many lineups have loaded. And here's the overriding factor why I like them. Tony Gosselin, the pitcher, 10-0. I think he's battling Sandy Alcantara to start the All-Star game. And these two guys are running neck and neck here. And he wants to start. I mean, there's a pride thing. to be able to say you're the starter for the All-Star game. So he does not want to let up even though he's 10-0. Sandy Alcantara is right behind him as far as ERA. Both these guys have been dominant here. Last time he faced them in 2021, only gave up one run in four innings here and in no decision. So I think he'll be ready to go here. I can't see the Cubs getting more than two runs. and the Dodgers, they score four or five runs on everyone. Lay the one and a half runs here, minus 125. We're going with the L.A. Dodgers blowout special over the Chicago Cubs.”
LAD 5, CHC 3 — Dodgers beat Cubs 5-3 behind four home runs; Los Angeles -1.5 covers with a 2-run margin (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Orioles, minus 110 versus those Angels. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so I got to watch the Angels last night. And outside of O'Connor, this is just not an impressive team right now. Mike Trout is even scuffed I mean having a rough go of it of late here So Otani not pitching so you don have to worry about that They going to go with Chase Silseth a guy that has not impressed me at all here. I mean, in 20 and two-thirds innings, he's given up five home runs here. And just a guy that has trouble also pounding the strike zone. Without a lineup that really can, you know, dry the ball on a lot of, a lot of balls. They, they look like they're going to be home runs in Baltimore, but this year have not been. So what Baltimore has here, if they've got a pitcher going tonight in, uh, Lyles that, you know, Jordan Lyles, you look at his ERA and you're like, wow, this kid isn't great, but, um, he impresses me. Uh, he's a battler and you talk about a guy, sometimes he can get to that six, seventh inning, which is important. And then on top of that, I mean, this is a Baltimore team. They lost four straight games. Usually when that happens, it leads to an eight out of nine losing streak. They came back and won four straight and three or four of those wins. They won by one run. They're winning close games. You're finding ways to win a lineup. Still not great, but they're solid guys. Get the job done. Used to playing in Baltimore and Baltimore just can't hit home runs. You've got to settle a lot of times for base hits. You've got to move runners around, and that's what Baltimore is doing here. Their bullpen also has been pretty good. So I think Baltimore has the better starter. I think they've got the better back-end bullpen here, and I think they've got the better lineup. So we're going to go with the Baltimore Orioles here with a level two lock.”
BAL 4, LAA 1 — Orioles beat Angels 4-1 behind an Adley Rutschman home run; Baltimore moneyline covers (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Giants minus 125 versus Diamondbacks. Break this one down for us, Lee. Not just a six-game losing streak. They lost to Arizona the last two nights, 8-3 at 6-2. So you know they've got to be heaping that. I still don't think Arizona's that good. You get Alex Cobb on the hill here, and Alex Cobb really looked good in his last outing here. So here's a guy that has had some trouble staying healthy, but he did pitch really well in his last start. He was pounding the strike zone. He's going to go up against Merrill Kelly here, maybe a little bit overrated. And here's a team that scores. I mean, Giants are right up there with everyone. They're top six, top seven, almost every major batting statistical category. And this Arizona team, I don't think they're going to get close to 500. You know, their bullpen, 24th in Major League Baseball, the subpar, 429 ERA here. And I just think enough's enough here. Don't overthink this one here. San Francisco here, blowout special. They salvaged the last game of the three-game series against Arizona in Arizona. Not very often are you going to get a line this low here. We're taking the Giants' money line here. blowout special over Arizona”
SF 7, ARI 5 — Giants beat Diamondbacks 7-5 on a walk-off, ninth-inning bases-loaded double; San Francisco moneyline covers (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Astros minus one and a half runs, minus 130 versus the Royals. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah and they didn just win the first two games of this series They scored seven and nine runs In fact for the last five games that they won they won all five in the month of July They scored eight nine four seven and nine runs So they are pounding the ball. Got a pitcher today going Christian Javier. He's got two first names. I mean, that's kind of weird. But other than that, here's a guy. I mean, he really has nice velocity and movement here facing a Royals team that, you know, they're just scuffling. Three and seven last ten games here. We see bad teams a lot of times right before the All-Star break. They just, you know, they start thinking about plans. What am I going to do, you know, with that break? Who am I going to see? Young teams and Royals are without. Mondesi, he's out with a knee injury. Salvador Perez is out with a thumb injury. They got two guys. That's it. They get two guys that can hit, Ben Attendee and Bobby Witt Jr. These two guys are carrying this team, and, you know, they're not hot right now. So I just don't see anyone having a big game here. Just seems like the Astros, they just, once they get the lead, they just keep going. Some teams, you know, they're just looking to hold on. They look to stretch out this league here. So with Christian Javier with his 6-3 record, 258 ERA, Ray, I think he's going to get the job done here. And a team, they got a lineup. I mean, one through nine. They hit the ball. They run. They do the little things right. That's what makes them, you know, probably maybe only the team that can, you know, give the Yankees any type of, you know, some type of challenge here in the AL. So we're going to lay the one and a half runs here. Another blowout special, Houston Astros over the Kansas City Royals. Boom.”
HOU 4, KC 7 — Royals beat Astros 7-4; Houston -1.5 busts outright (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line, we're going to roll with this one. Under seven runs, minus 110. Ken, Marlins and Angels, break this one down. Big game here for both teams. This Marlins team can get to 500, 40 and 40 on the year if they win this game. So I think they're going to be a little bit tight. You would think, you know, the average person would think, hey, they're loose, they're playing well. You know, they've won every single game in July, all five games. They also won last game in June for a six-game winning streak. But a lot of pressure here. I think they'd get a lot of notice and they'd feel like they'd done something special just to get back to 500. A lot of teams do fall five, eight, ten games below 500. You really don get a chance to get back to 500 So I think they be a little bit tight They have not seen Otani So you know Otani was on the last time he pitched five and two thirds innings pitched 11 runs in that game And I mean he lights up when he pitched, he throws 97, 98, sometimes since a hundred. And on top of that, the last time the Angels won a game was the last time he pitched last Thursday. So, watched the game last night, paid keen attention. This lineup for the Angels, I mean, unless Trout or Tani on fire, they're terrible. They are awful. So, I think even Trevor Rodgers, who has not started well, he had a really good year last year. He's in the twos almost the entire year as ERA, 556 this year. But the last down he pitched five innings, only gave up one earned run. I think he finally turned the corner. He's been wild this year, walking batters, 11% of the batters. I think that he's finally hit his groove here. I think he's going to pitch well here. I think it's a low-scoring game. Why take a chance, you know, for the 2-1, 3-2 game here? Let's just play the under here. Let's not try to pick a winner. We're going to go under seven runs in the L.A. Angels-Miami Marlins game here, all the way up level three lock. Boom, there it is, all the way up, level three lock right there, Angels and Marlins.”
MIA 2, LAA 5 — Angels beat Marlins 5-2, combining for exactly 7 runs; under 7 pushes (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Blue Jays, minus 170 with the take back being plus 155. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yes, everyone's talking about Toronto. You know, they're in the thick of things or they're right there, you know, with Tampa and Boston. Probably, obviously, just contending for a wild card with the Yankees running away with it. But what have they done for me lately? They've lost each of the last four games. They've scored two, five, three, and just one run yesterday as they traveled all the way from Toronto out to Oakland to play a night game. They've got to play another night game. And, you know, I don't know if they're going to recover all of a sudden. So now you see Kikuchi's going to go to the Hill, 3-4, 474, a little below average pitcher. I mean, here's a guy who gives up a lot of dingers. In 62 innings pitched, wow, he's given up 14 home runs and walks a lot of guys too. In 62 innings pitched, 36 bases on balls here. This Oakland lineup is nothing special, But I think their pitcher tonight is a little underrated, Adrian Martinez. He's 1-1 with a 630 ERA. He's only pitched 10 innings. What hurt him here is he gave up two dingers. So I think he'll settle in. He's a rookie from Mexico. I think he's got some pretty good stuff here. So you look at the – sometimes you just look at the raw numbers and it doesn't tell the whole story here. I think Adrian Martinez settles in here. And Toronto, they are just a streaky team, really good or really bad here. I mean, do you really want to lay, you know, 170 on the road with a pitcher who's nothing special? I'm not doing it here. Wrong team favorite. We're going with the Oakland A's here, plus 155.”
OAK 5, TOR 3 — Athletics beat Blue Jays 5-3; Oakland moneyline covers (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Marlins money line, minus 135. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah so the Marlins are on a big streak right now and got a couple guys out of the lineup you know notably Jazz Chisholm but what have they done for me lately Well July all July undefeated They have won now five straight games and I mean they doing it every which way So now they got their ace on the hill Alcantara and Alcantara I believe is going to get the start Now you never know You get politics involved, and they may end up putting someone else in there as a starter, but he certainly deserves it. A 195 ERA, he's their stopper. I mean, the last game, I mean, he was fit to be tied. They were about to take him out. It looked like Mattingly, and he waved off Mattingly. With one out, he said, no, I'm going to finish this game here after they took the lead in the top of the ninth inning. So here's a guy that is a workhorse. Here's a guy that has amazing stuff. They're facing an Angels team that just can't hit. They're in the bottom half hitting, pitching, defense. Now they've got to go on the road to face Miami, who's red hot here. Miami wins both of these next two games, only a two-game series. This Miami Marlins team is going to be sitting at 500, and they'll have a bunch of guys coming back from injuries after the break. So I'm going to lay it here. I think this is a short price. I think this line should be minus 155, minus 160 here. We're going to go with the Miami Marlins here at home. Blowout special over the L.A. Angels.”
MIA 2, LAA 1 — Marlins beat Angels 2-1; Miami moneyline covers (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Rays, team total over four, minus 120 versus Red Sox. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, sometimes, you know, you approach a game and you're like, well, you can't figure it out. You look at the game and you're like, well, I don't know if I want to take one side here. You look at the total. Well, you're like, sitting at nine and a half. Boston's favored by 120 and the total's nine and a half. You know, I don't know if I want to touch either way. Well, hey, there's always different options. You can play first five innings. And what I'm gonna play is the team total. And I'm gonna go with the Tampa Bay Rays here. And why am I gonna look at this team total? I love their lineup I think they so balanced and underrated here They got shut out I think they going to be hopping mad before that shutout They had against Toronto scored six 11 and seven runs I think it's an anomaly. And I just think that Nick Pavetta here, even though you look at his record and his ERA, 8-5, 3-23 ERA, could be pitching his 16th. This will be his 16th start here, but has not had too many quality starts of late. So I think that, you know, when you look at pitching to contact, his ERA should be higher. Just guys are hitting a lot of balls right at people. And sometimes you're getting lucky. Usually, eventually that evens out here. So I just love this Tampa Bay lineup because they hit, they run, they're smart. They use a lot of hit and run and don't make a whole lot of mistakes on the bases. So they're not a team that's going to lead the league in homers. They're not a team that's going to lead the league in average. But they just do the little things here. You know, I could see like a 6-5 game here either way. And for that reason, I'm going to take the Tampa Bay Rays here team total over four runs. I think they score at least five runs here. So we're going to go with a level one lock to start the week here. Even though it's on Tuesday, we're going to go with the Tampa Bay Rays over four runs minus 120.”
TB 8, BOS 4 — Rays beat Red Sox 8-4, scoring 8 team runs; the Tampa Bay team-total over 4 covers (ESPN).
“betonline.net line for this one the Rockies minus 120 with the take back being plus 110 versus Diamondbacks thoughts on this one Lee yeah well Merrill Kelly simply should not be an underdog in this kind of matchup versus Antonio Senzalata. So Kelly has had a roller coaster of a career, but his recent time with the Diamondbacks has been his most consistent. He's 4-1 away from home, and he's really rebounded well in June after a tough May. Senzalata, here's a guy for the Rockies that he is having to rely on his fastball more than ever this year. He's actually throwing it 55% of the time, but that is the pitch that the Diamondbacks here have been hitting well all year. I was surprised by the line. I thought that Arizona was going to be the favorite, minus 115 to 120. So I'm going to jump on it right now here. Arizona Diamondbacks, money line, wrong team favorite over the Colorado Rockies.”
ARI 9, COL 3 — Diamondbacks beat Rockies 9-3 behind seven strong innings from Merrill Kelly; Arizona moneyline covers (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. We're going to roll with the over in this one. Over nine runs, minus 110, Twins versus Orioles.”
MIN 3, BAL 2 — Twins beat Orioles 3-2 on a Byron Buxton walk-off homer, combining for 5 runs; over 9 busts (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Tarantula minus 140 versus Quake Rydell. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, this is the featured preliminary bout, USC 276. Like I said, one of the most stacked cards we've ever seen. 155-pound lightweight division. And I repeat that twice, 155-pound lightweight division. Why am I repeating that twice? Here's why. So, Turner, here he is. he's a guy that is um i mean just i i don't know if i've ever seen his sport he's 6'3 155 pounds now when he fights after you know he he starts eating after he makes the weight he could be 170 172 175 but a 6'3 guy for 155 pound division with a 77 inch reach i mean that is insane So it's opposition here, 30-year-old New Zealander Brad Rydell, primarily a striker. He mixes in some wrestling. He stands a mere mortal here. 5'7", he has a 71-inch reach. He has a classic boxer's nose. You've got to check out his nose. With all the toughness that it brings, Rydell, I think he's decent, But it doesn't have any one skill set that really impresses me here. So, as I said, Rydell facing guy 6'3", 155 pounds, 6-inch reach advantage. You usually see two, three inches in this kind of division. I can't remember the last time I've seen something where someone has over a 5-inch reach advantage. Turner, I just think he's improved drastically with each performance. He finished his last two opponents two by strikes and two by submission And what interesting he actually had arachnophobia for a while And then what did he do He overcame it He ends up he has he purchased 200 pet tarantulas hence his nickname the tarantula So crazy thing here. So I just think Turner's improved rapidly. Rydell, I think you're going to, he's going to be singing that same old song. and Turner, you know, he's just going to be too much for him. He could beat him by punches. He could beat him by submission, ground and pound. So I think Rydell is going to wish he was back singing in high school, grease lightning here. So we're going to go with Jalen the Tarantula Turner. I think he's going to sink his fangs into Rydell early and often and most likely get the finish here. So we're going to go with a level three lock to end the week here. Jalen, the tarantula turner, minus 140 over Brad Quake Rydell.”
Jalin Turner submitted Brad Riddell via first-round guillotine choke (0:45) on the UFC 276 prelim card; Turner moneyline wins (Wikipedia UFC 276 results table).
“The Cubs minus 120 versus Reds with the take back being plus 110. Break this one down for us, Lee. So these are two teams that low key, in my opinion, scam their, you know, fans here. I mean, they just did not do anything, in my opinion, to put out a decent product. But there is a right side to this game. There's one team that's starting to bring up some prospects, and they do have prospects just like the Pittsburgh Pirates. And that team is the Cincinnati Reds. So the wind is blowing out at Wrigley tonight, it looks like. And the only way to avoid the effects of that is to produce some ground balls defensively. The good news for Cincinnati fans is Graham Ashcraft. Now a lot of people are familiar with this kid. He's on the mound tonight. This kid is a rookie. He hasn't pitched in Chicago yet, but he ranks fifth among 166 pitchers. Major League Baseball and ground ball rate has helped him to a .327 ERA, and I think it will help him in this game. The other end of this is Kyle Hendricks. The guy continues to decline since his early days with the Cubs. generally known as a slower-pitching-controlled guy who throws strikes and induces weak contact. But he has a 490 ERA this year with a 521 expected ERA with his second highest walk rate of his career so far. He's been incredibly inconsistent. He's already given up four runs and four nings to this Reds team. I think the wrong pitcher and the wrong team is favored here. Cincinnati Reds money line here over the Chicago Cubs. Wrong team favorite. Boom. There it is. Starting us off right there. The Cubbies and the Reds. Lee Sterling says the wrong team is favorite. So look at the Cincinnati Reds and the plus 110 as far as the take back goes.”
CHC 15, CIN 7 — Cubs routed the Reds 15-7 at Wrigley Field; Cincinnati moneyline busts (ESPN).
“How about the Dodgers and the San Diego Padres? This is a really good game out west. The Dodgers 46-28. The Padres 46-31. BetOnline.net line for this one. The Dodgers money line, minus 130 versus the Padres. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so I've been watching the Padres team a lot over the last couple weeks to see how they would do without Manny Machado in the lineup. And I'm not seeing a World Series contender here. The pitching has been fine, although the bullpen has blown a couple of games. But the biggest concern to me is the lineup. They have talent at the top end of the lineup with guys like Jay Cronenworth and also Luke Voigt, but they only have one guy right now who's hitting above 280. And they're not getting any power from their bats at all, ranking 14th in the NL in home runs here. Maybe a big series coming up against the Dodgers can give them that spark, but I don't think this is a game for people to back them to pick things up again. They played the Diamondbacks and the Phillies eight times over the last week, and they only averaged four runs per game in that span with 10 of the 33 runs coming in just one game Maybe they will pick it up when Tatis and Machado return But this is not an intimidating lineup by any means right now. I think the Dodgers, especially after a rough series in Denver, I think they come out in game one and show they own who owns here, the NL West. And, I mean, really? I mean, maybe if you look at this lineup, They were expecting, like, Eric Hosmer to be the guy that paid him a lot of money. 69 games. This guy stands 6'4", 226, plays first base, six home runs. That's it. Just not driving in home runs. So not getting the job done. So I'm going to Dodgers here. Money line, minus 130, blowout special over the not San Diego, Slam Diego Padres. That's right, man. There was a time where that was definitely the theme. That was the conversation. The Slam Diego Padres, not so much. Still have a really good record. Still find ways to win some games, but it's just not what it was when they had all that firepower and everybody was hitting a home run. But I do think this is going to be a fun game out west. Again, the Dodgers and the Padres. I like when these two teams square up. The Dodgers 46-28. The Padres currently 46-31. Again, betonline.net line for that one. The Dodgers money line, minus 130.”
LAD 3, SD 1 — Dodgers beat Padres 3-1 behind two Justin Turner homers; Los Angeles moneyline covers (ESPN).
“Going to do a little over-under for total wins for Utah. How about this? BetOnline.net line for this one. The over-under for Utah is nine and a half. Nine and a half wins for the over-under as far as Utah and their wins go. What says you, Lee Sterling? All right, so Utah finished the season all strong. I mean, people remember what happened late in the season. They absolutely destroyed the Oregon Ducks twice, regular season and then the Pac-12 championship game and almost beat Ohio State losing on a late touchdown, 48-45. So you're looking at them and you're saying, wow, okay, return the quarterback, who I like a lot, Cameron Rising. Return their running back, Tavion Thomas. Really good tight end, Brent Cuth. So this is a strong team, a couple good starters on defense. But I like Utah when they're the hunter. They're not being hunted. People are going to be coming after them. Look at their schedule. So they got to open up at Florida, really tough. They have to play at UCLA in the middle of the season At the end of the season they got to face the Oregon Ducks and then thrown in They got to play at home against Oregon State and San Diego State who beat them last year So yeah everyone remembers what they did late here I just like them when they're the underdog and I might play them a couple of times during the season. Let's say Cameron Rising goes out injury or watch your spring game. This kid, Jackson, Jaquinnon Jackson, I think he's really dynamic, redshirt freshman. he could be something they've got a true freshman Jalen Glover a kid from Lakeland Florida who looked electric only five seven but packs 211 pounds on and is really quick so if they lose their starting quarterback starting running back I don't think there's much of a letdown to those next guys and maybe the public thinks there will be so there's going to be some maybe a couple situations to back Utah, but I don't see them winning 10 or 11 games here. So I think they're a little overhyped here. And USC, got to play USC, forgot about them. They're loading up. They have a transfer quarterback from Oklahoma, new coaching staff. They're going to be a tough out. So, yeah, they might win eight or nine games, but I don't see them winning 10 or more. So I'm going under nine and a half wins for the Utah running Utes here.”
Utah went 9-3 in its 12-game 2022 regular season (losses to Florida, UCLA, Oregon), then beat USC in the Pac-12 Championship to finish 10-3 overall; the season win-total market grades on the 12-game regular season, so 9 wins clears under 9.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“BetOnline live for this one The Braves money line minus 129 versus the Phillies Thoughts on this one Lee Yeah Kyle Wright made his first career start in the majors way back in 2019 in Philly. And it was the start of a couple bad years for him to start his career. He's been up and down 2019, 20 and 21 from the majors to AAA. and all of a sudden this year, finally living up to the potential as a solid, really solid starting pitcher. 318 ERA this year, and he has actually been better on the road than at home so far. What is even more impressive is how much better he is during the second trip through the lineup. You do not see this very often. This year, and this will tell you how good a pitcher is, This year, the second time through the lineup, hitters have just a 200 batting average with 40 strikeouts against him versus a 288 average and 30 strikeouts against him the first time through. This is a key difference between a guy who can make it at the major league level and a guy who will be stuck as a reliever or a minor leaguer his entire career. The ability to mix pitches up and keep hitters on their heels is huge in today's era of baseball. On the other side, I love this name, Ranger Suarez. Ranger Philly starter today has some interesting splits now. he's also much better on the road than at home but it is much more drastic than writes he has a 510 era in philly versus a 361 era on the road if you look at his last few starts he got hit around the ballpark by the diamondbacks dodgers and rangers and i just can't trust him against the hottest team in baseball right now that's right the hottest team is the atlanta braves I think this one's going to be a blowout, but I'm going to put it as my level one lock. Atlanta Braves money line minus 129 over the Philadelphia Phillies.”
ATL 4, PHI 1 — Braves beat the Phillies 4-1; Atlanta moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Still knocks minus 135 versus Tavares. Thoughts on this one, Lee? I agree with you. first of all let me commend you The way you pronounced that name was perfect I mean you must have gotten an A in language when you were taking a different language Yeah, you did something right. I think every fighter should have a nickname. Every fighter should have a really good tattoo. And Brad Tavares, you talk about a guy that has fought some really good fighters. He's fought Edmund Shabazian, lost that. he did lose also to Israel Adesanya. Nothing to be embarrassed about losing to Kyle Bender, the champion there. So he's fought a high level. He fought Robert Whitaker. Hasn't been able to beat the top guys, but solid guy. And here's what you see. When he can get inside, he will kick you. I mean, he has some really strong leg kicks, and he punches really extremely well, and he has power. but the problem is he's got to get inside. And he's fighting a fighter here, and Duplessis has only fought. This is only his third fight here in the UFC. So it tells you something. You have a guy here who has a lot of experience, is a high-level, ranked number 14th, and he's an underdog to Duplessis, who this is only his third fight. Why is he the favorite here? This guy, Duplessis, is, I think, something special. Big time power can knock you out, and he does two different types of submissions extremely well. The guillotine choke and the rear naked choke. So he can beat you three different ways here, and I just don't think that Tavares is going to get inside. So Duplessis has a two-inch reach advantage, and I think that's going to be the difference here. He's going to keep him on the outside. He's going to frustrate Tavares here. And if you see a guy with only two, this is only his third fight, and he's favored in a fight over a guy that's been fighting for 11 years in the UFC, still only 34, you know this guy is going to be special. We're going with Dreykus DuPlessis here, and I love the nickname Stillnox. I think he gets the job done over Brad Tavares.”
Dricus du Plessis beat Brad Tavares by unanimous decision at UFC 276 (Wikipedia, Dricus du Plessis).
“BenOnline.net line for this one. The Marlins' money line, minus 115 versus the Cardinals. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Sandy Alcantara. I think he's the best pitcher in the National League, point blank, period. He has a 195 ERA on the year with 94 strikeouts, which isn't a real high amount, but he's just not giving up any hard contact at all. I like stud pitchers coming off not-so-great performance, and I just think those kind of guys, they take great pride in what they do, and they usually bounce back. All of his expected statistics here rank near the top 20 among starters in the majors, and his changeup is making hitters look silly right now. He's gone seven-plus innings in each of his last nine starts, and this Miami bullpen needs it. The Marlins 5-2 in their last seven series finals here. And this is a big series for them to salvage here before facing the Nationals and Mets division opponents mostly over the next two weeks. I think they can rely on their ace here to get the job done. When you've got a bad team on the road, you know, they've lost the first two games. Why are they favorites? Well, they're probably going to win the game here. I like the Miami Marlins money line here over the St. Louis Cardinals.”
MIA 4, STL 3 — Marlins beat the Cardinals 4-3; Miami moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline line for this one The Nationals minus 120 versus the Pirates with the take back being plus 110 Break this one down for us Lee You know I don know why Washington starter Patrick Corbin is favored in this game or against anybody at this point in his career. This guy is probably, no, I'm going to come right out and say it. I think he's the worst starter in Major League Baseball right now. He has a 660 ERA, and it's not a fluke. His expected ERA is 645, so it's not like he's having bad breaks against him. I mean, they're hitting him hard. And the Nationals are now 3-12 when he starts for them this season. We talked about him the other day, but it looks like Key Brian Hayes is back in the lineup for the Pirates moving forward after his concussion scare. Now O'Neal Cruz, their other top prospect, is up with a big league team, and he's already making some highlight real plays. Jose Quintana, the Pittsburgh starter tonight. You might remember him from his time with the White Sox and the Cubs. But he has come in in the Pirates, and he's found his form again. I mean, he's at 360 RA, which is decent, and he's getting tons of swings and misses lately. And the other big thing is that Quintana is a lefty. Juan Soto hitting just 182 against lefties this year. Wrong team favorite. Pittsburgh Pirates money line plus 110 over the Washington Nationals.”
WSH 3, PIT 1 — Nationals beat the Pirates 3-1; Pittsburgh moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Dodgers, minus one and a half runs, minus 140 versus the Rockies.”
COL 7, LAD 4 — Rockies beat the Dodgers 7-4; Los Angeles -1.5 busts outright (ESPN box score).
“We're going to talk about the ATL, the Atlanta Falcons, the over-under here on five wins, minus 110. The betonline.net line for this one, the Falcons over-under, five wins, minus 110. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So I'll say it. I'll come right out and say it. I think the Atlanta Falcons are in a total rebuild here, And if I had season tickets, I would question whether I want to continue going to these games. So Marcus Mariota, you're very familiar with him from his days with the Raiders. Would you feel comfortable with him starting as your starter for the whole season? No, no, no. He wasn't comfortable in the backup role for the last couple seasons with the Raiders. So no, not as a starter, not now. Nope. Okay. So I peg him maybe as playing seven, eight, if everything goes right, ten games. I don't see him lasting a whole season behind this offensive line. The big weapon he has, Kyle Pitts, love him as a tight end, second-year tight end. But after that, I mean, Brian Edwards is a starting receiver. Drake London might end up being good, but, you know, their star, really he ends up, he's suspended for a season. So that's going to hurt them a lot here. They don't have much running game. Cordell Patterson, more of a threat coming out of the backfield. And I just don't think they help their defense. They don't have any difference makers. The way you play defense is you need, if you have a good defense, you need someone on the defensive line who makes plays, sacks, or can get in front of a quarterback, make him hurry the passes. They don't have anyone there. They don't have anyone at linebacker. They don't have anyone in the safety position. maybe their best player might be Koo, their kicker. So I think they got a whole lot of problems here. They went 7-10 last year, and you're saying, well, why is it 5? Well, behind Marcus Mariota, looks like their backup is going to be Desmond Ritter. I thought he was the worst pick in the draft. I wouldn't have taken him anywhere in the first four or five rounds. I think he has a lot of holes in his game. I don't think he's accurate as a passer. If he ends up coming in, you bet every single game against the Atlanta Falcons. I'm going to come right out and say it right now. The third stringer, Felipe Franks, are you kidding me? So I think they set this team up for trouble here. And they were outscored by 140 points last year and they went 7 It wasn like they were outscored by 40 points They were outscored by almost 140 points So I think this team is going to be absolutely awful You look and you see the season win total at five, and they're playing 17 games. First thought is over. No way. They're going to win like three games this year. I'm going under, under the five wins for the Atlanta Falcons. Season win total, level two lock. Boom, a level two lock on the Falcons just being awful. And with three wins, they very well easily could be having the number one overall pick in the 2023 draft. And it's crazy that we're talking about that. But you pointed out the quarterback room, Marcus Mariota, Ritter, and Felipe Franks. That is nothing to get excited about. I guess Ritter is the outliner. You're hoping that he's going to be good, but I'm with you. I didn't really see a whole lot that said that's an NFL quarterback. College quarterback, sure. NFL quarterback, there's a lot of questions as far as I'm concerned. Good stuff, good stuff. Well, that was Lee. What'd you say? Level two lock? Level two lock. There it is. Level two lock on the over under talking about the Atlanta Falcons going under five wins minus one ten NFL futures.”
The Falcons finished the 2022 season 7-10, over the 5-win line, so the Under 5 futures pick busts (ESPN schedule/final standings).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. the Blue Jays minus one and a half runs plus 110 versus the Red Sox. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Boston Red Sox are playing much better than they were the first month and a half of the season. But they're starting rotation, starting to give up some runs and get them into trouble. Nate Ivaldi he hurt And a couple of guys who are called up have really struggled So they starting a young guy named Connor Seabold and his second career Major League Baseball start in this one is going to be on the road in Toronto Good luck with that. His first start didn't go so great. He's not expected to go long in this one, but their bullpen has already pitched quite a bit over the weekend in Cleveland. So against this Toronto lineup that has some of the best depth in the majors, it does not bode well. Kevin Gossman will start here for Toronto. And he looked like his old self in his last start. Four less walks, seven strikeouts in six innings. And he did it against a really good White Sox lineup. It looks like George Springer will be back in the lineup for this one, too. I don't think he will have an issue here shutting down this Boston lineup here. So we're going to lay the one-and-a-half runs, plus 110. Toronto Blue Jays here at home over the Boston Red Sox.”
TOR 7, BOS 2 — Blue Jays beat the Red Sox 7-2 at home, a 5-run margin that clears the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Mariners, minus 155 with the take-back being plus 140. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, actually, some punches were thrown. Major League Baseball fight, usually it's like a cat fight at most. These guys usually not much for fighters, but that was fun to watch just from a spectator's standpoint. But the story here is the Baltimore Orioles just closed out the first month of baseball over 503 years. They just took three out of four against the White Sox in Chicago, and now they get to face a depleted Seattle team. The Mariners got, as we know, into that benches-clearing brawl yesterday afternoon in Los Angeles. And I would expect Major League Baseball to hand out some suspension to guys like Jesse Winker and also J.P. Crawford, who are two huge pieces in that lineup. I also don't think the Mariners are going to come out flying in an inter-division matchup here like this one after such an emotional day yesterday. Tyler Wells, starter for Baltimore. Actually pitching like a number one or a number two pitcher right now for them has a .334 ERA. He has a whip under 1.1, and his high fly ball rate should work for him here in a pitcher-friendly park tonight. I think the wrong team is favored here. I think the Orioles team could surprise folks here in the second half here Wrong team favored We go with the Baltimore Orioles over the Seattle Mariners Boom”
BAL 9, SEA 2 — Orioles beat the Mariners 9-2; Baltimore moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Yankees minus one and a half runs, minus 150 against the A's. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yankees scoring over five runs a game. I mean, this is incredible here. And their batting average isn't great. 16th overall team batting average. But they just have, I mean, the whole lineup. They can change the game with one swing. They come back. And if guys get on base some, look out here. Also, the pitching here, so underrated. Everyone talks about the hitting here. Sitting at number two right now, allowing just 2.94 runs per game here. They have a whip their staff, 1.07. The starting here in this game has just been so consistent. So I just think Montgomery on the hill here at home, ERA under 297, facing a team that, you know, just doesn't have that pop here. Don't overthink this one here. This is money. I'm laying the one and a half runs here. Blowout special. The Yankees at home again, easy over the Oakland A's.”
NYY 9, OAK 5 — Yankees beat the Athletics 9-5, a 4-run margin that clears the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Stallions minus 3.5 versus Stars. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, get this one early. I think this line is going to close 4 5 points And I think the Stallions are clearly the better team here 10 record They really have no weaknesses Maybe the story of the USFL has been how many backup quarterbacks have gone on to be starters. In this game, both quarterbacks started as the backup. And just think that you've got a team here in Birmingham that they just don't beat themselves here. They went against New Orleans breakers who have a bunch of guys on defense that talk a lot of smack. They even went against the breakers, had a tight end. They caught 12 for 154. But they just don't give up the big play. They bend but don't break here. They're going to face a team here in Philadelphia that won because they had an 88-yard punt return about two minutes to go in the game here. So just think that that was an emotional win for the Philadelphia Stars. team. I think that Birmingham can run the ball. I like the fact that Smith not only can pass the ball, can get some first downs running the ball as a quarterback. And I just think that, you know, they, like I said, they just, this is a team that's been the best team from the first game on here. So, Hey, give Philadelphia credit. That was an exciting game to watch the first game on Saturday where you had back-to-back returns in the fourth quarter here for touchdown. You don't see that too often, But I just think Birmingham's the better team, won't beat themselves, really good special team. So I'm going to lay the three and a half, get on it early here. We're going to go with a level two lock right out of the gate on Monday for the July 4th week giveaway. And let's fire away. Let's go with the Birmingham Stallions in the championship game on Sunday over the Philadelphia Stars.”
33-30 — Birmingham beat Philadelphia 33-30 to win the USFL championship, a 3-point margin that falls short of the -3.5 spread (Wikipedia, 2022 USFL Championship Game).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Rays minus one and a half plus 105 versus the Pirates Thoughts on this one Lee Yeah I talked about him before but Mitch Keller has really struggled at the major league level His ERA is sitting at 472 I mean, sitting at almost five for his career. And I don't think the Rays are the team that are going to give him any breaks. Kevin Cash, their manager, has put together a really strong lineup. People think they just have pitching. But they can take pitchers here deep into counts from the first batter to the ninth batter. And they have an OPS of over 700 against teams with losing records this year. The other big issue for Pittsburgh tonight is T. Brian Hayes got hurt in yesterday's walk-off winner against Chicago. This kid is an absolute star in the making, and he is by far the best player on the Pirates team. He dove into home plate on the walk-off sacrifice fly, and he actually looked like he got concussed there. I think Pittsburgh is a strong, as I said, second-half team this year, much like the 2021 Detroit Tigers. But I don't think they stand a chance here tonight without him. This one should be handled easily by the Tampa Bay Rays. lay the one and a half runs plus 105 blowout special tampa bay rays over the pittsburgh pirates boom simple as that the rays over the pirates and the rays playing some really good ball i bet you the lightning wish they were in the position of the rays right now right yeah on the on the winning side of things right now of course we will talk stanley cup final a little bit later on the show but there you go blowout special number one tampa bay rays minus one and a half runs plus 105 versus the Pittsburgh Pirates.”
TB 4, PIT 3 — Rays beat the Pirates 4-3, a 1-run margin that falls short of the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Rays minus one and a half plus 105 versus the Pirates Thoughts on this one Lee Yeah I talked about him before but Mitch Keller has really struggled at the major league level His ERA is sitting at 472 I mean, sitting at almost five for his career. And I don't think the Rays are the team that are going to give him any breaks. Kevin Cash, their manager, has put together a really strong lineup. People think they just have pitching. But they can take pitchers here deep into counts from the first batter to the ninth batter. And they have an OPS of over 700 against teams with losing records this year. The other big issue for Pittsburgh tonight is T. Brian Hayes got hurt in yesterday's walk-off winner against Chicago. This kid is an absolute star in the making, and he is by far the best player on the Pirates team. He dove into home plate on the walk-off sacrifice fly, and he actually looked like he got concussed there. I think Pittsburgh is a strong, as I said, second-half team this year, much like the 2021 Detroit Tigers. But I don't think they stand a chance here tonight without him. This one should be handled easily by the Tampa Bay Rays. lay the one and a half runs plus 105 blowout special tampa bay rays over the pittsburgh pirates boom simple as that the rays over the pirates and the rays playing some really good ball i bet you the lightning wish they were in the position of the rays right now right yeah on the on the winning side of things right now of course we will talk stanley cup final a little bit later on the show but there you go blowout special number one tampa bay rays minus one and a half runs plus 105 versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. Oh, boy. Last one out. Turn off the lights. This one's a blowout. Now, Lee, blowout special number two. We're going to turn our attention to the UFC. And you know when it comes to the UFC, I always get excited when these fighters have really good nicknames. Well, here's a couple of the best of the best right here. Chris, the action man Curtis, going up against Rodolfo, the black belt Hunter Vieira. Chris, the action man Curtis is 28-8. Rodolfo is 8-1. BetOnline.net line for this one. Chris, the action man, Curtis, minus 125 versus Rodolfo, the black belt hunter, Vieira. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, this is fought at the 185-pound middleweight division here. It's going to be the first fight of the main card here. And this is the just what you have is the classic grappler here versus striker matchup. Vieira comes in as a multi-time world champion jiu-jitsu artist. He sports an 8-1 record, including 3-1 the UFC. Vieira's only loss of his MMA career came when he could not get an early submission while showing I thought he had limited cardio. He was submitted via an arm and guillotine here by Alexander, get this nickname, Nicknamed Fluffy Hernandez in a huge upset. It took Chris Curtis, I thought, some time to finally reach his UFC potential and really to get on the big stage here. But what he showed up is when he finally got there, he got there in a big way. He KO two absolute studs here in Phil Hawes and Brendan Allen in a four period Overall 28 record He also riding right now a seven winning streak here TKO or KOing his opponents here So he shown I thought great patience and improvement during this run here. Vera has shown to be very dangerous when he gets his hands on his opponents, yet has shown a real lack of skill in the stand-up department. He struggled mightily versus his last couple opponents here when he had to stand up here. So I just think that the action man here in this one, I think he's going to set a trap, and the black belt hunter here is going to be the prey here. So this one will be reminiscent of Ali standing over Liston when the action man is done. And Curtis is going to be admiring his work. We're going to go with a blowout special here. Chris, action man, Curtis laying the 125 here over Rodolfo, the black belt hunter, Vieira.”
Chris Curtis beat Rodolfo Vieira by unanimous decision. The bout actually took place June 25, 2022 at UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot, not UFC 276 as the stored event named — but it is the same two fighters, no other Curtis-Vieira bout exists (Wikipedia, Chris Curtis).
“BetOnline.net. That's where the game starts. Oh, boy. Last one out. Turn off the lights. This one's a blowout. All right, Lee, here we go. Blowout special number one, MLB action. The Tampa Bay Rays against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Rays are 37-32. The Pirates are 29-40. BetOnline.net line for this one. The Rays minus one and a half plus 105 versus the Pirates Thoughts on this one Lee Yeah I talked about him before but Mitch Keller has really struggled at the major league level His ERA is sitting at 472 I mean, sitting at almost five for his career. And I don't think the Rays are the team that are going to give him any breaks. Kevin Cash, their manager, has put together a really strong lineup. People think they just have pitching. But they can take pitchers here deep into counts from the first batter to the ninth batter. And they have an OPS of over 700 against teams with losing records this year. The other big issue for Pittsburgh tonight is T. Brian Hayes got hurt in yesterday's walk-off winner against Chicago. This kid is an absolute star in the making, and he is by far the best player on the Pirates team. He dove into home plate on the walk-off sacrifice fly, and he actually looked like he got concussed there. I think Pittsburgh is a strong, as I said, second-half team this year, much like the 2021 Detroit Tigers. But I don't think they stand a chance here tonight without him. This one should be handled easily by the Tampa Bay Rays. lay the one and a half runs plus 105 blowout special tampa bay rays over the pittsburgh pirates boom simple as that the rays over the pirates and the rays playing some really good ball i bet you the lightning wish they were in the position of the rays right now right yeah on the on the winning side of things right now of course we will talk stanley cup final a little bit later on the show but there you go blowout special number one tampa bay rays minus one and a half runs plus 105 versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. Oh, boy. Last one out. Turn off the lights. This one's a blowout. Now, Lee, blowout special number two. We're going to turn our attention to the UFC. And you know when it comes to the UFC, I always get excited when these fighters have really good nicknames. Well, here's a couple of the best of the best right here. Chris, the action man Curtis, going up against Rodolfo, the black belt Hunter Vieira. Chris, the action man Curtis is 28-8. Rodolfo is 8-1. BetOnline.net line for this one. Chris, the action man, Curtis, minus 125 versus Rodolfo, the black belt hunter, Vieira. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, this is fought at the 185-pound middleweight division here. It's going to be the first fight of the main card here. And this is the just what you have is the classic grappler here versus striker matchup. Vieira comes in as a multi-time world champion jiu-jitsu artist. He sports an 8-1 record, including 3-1 the UFC. Vieira's only loss of his MMA career came when he could not get an early submission while showing I thought he had limited cardio. He was submitted via an arm and guillotine here by Alexander, get this nickname, Nicknamed Fluffy Hernandez in a huge upset. It took Chris Curtis, I thought, some time to finally reach his UFC potential and really to get on the big stage here. But what he showed up is when he finally got there, he got there in a big way. He KO two absolute studs here in Phil Hawes and Brendan Allen in a four period Overall 28 record He also riding right now a seven winning streak here TKO or KOing his opponents here So he shown I thought great patience and improvement during this run here. Vera has shown to be very dangerous when he gets his hands on his opponents, yet has shown a real lack of skill in the stand-up department. He struggled mightily versus his last couple opponents here when he had to stand up here. So I just think that the action man here in this one, I think he's going to set a trap, and the black belt hunter here is going to be the prey here. So this one will be reminiscent of Ali standing over Liston when the action man is done. And Curtis is going to be admiring his work. We're going to go with a blowout special here. Chris, action man, Curtis laying the 125 here over Rodolfo, the black belt hunter, Vieira. Boom. The action man can right there, according to Lee Sterling. Little UFC action. And I do really love the nicknames. And it sounds like it's going to be a hell of a fight. Very excited to see how all the action shakes out again. Chris, the action man, Curtis, minus 125 versus Rodolfo, the black belt hunter, V-Era. That is blowout special number two. Excited about that, Lee. But you know what I'm more excited about? I'm more excited about the lock of the day because we're going to be talking Stanley Cup final game five. Is this going to be the last game? Is it going to come to a close? Well, we'll tell you all about that next here on Locked on Bets. Open it, open it, open it. Lee has the key to the lock of the day. All right, Lee, here we go. Let's close things out. Lock of the day, talking Stanley Cup final game five. It could be the final game. Tampa Bay needs to get a dub to extend the series. Of course, Colorado's up 3-2-2. So here we go. BetOnline.net. Live for this one, we're going to roll over six goals, plus 105 in the Lightning versus Colorado. Thoughts on this one? Break it down for us, Lee. Yeah, the Colorado Avalanche have somehow figured out a way to beat Andre Bazileski for one or two weak goals this cup final here. So how have they done it? They've done it the five hole. In the first three rounds of postseason, Vasilevsky did not allow a single five-hole goal to New York, Florida, or Tampa. But against Colorado, he has already allowed three of them. So it makes sense, too. The Avalanche have probably seven or eight forwards with elite quick releases who can beat a goalie between the legs. And Jared Bednar, their coach, has taken advantage of it in their game plan. This really is the first time in years that he has looked vulnerable in the postseason. The other facet of this series that has surprised everyone is the number of high danger chances and odd man rushes. There have been, get this, 69 high danger chances combined in the first four games at even strength alone. Tampa Bay defensive structure was a big talking point coming in and it just hasn been there I don think it going to be there tonight either if Colorado jumps out to another early lead here There will be a lot of people, I believe, on the under tonight, but I don't think that's the right play. This is going to be the most desperation we see from a Lightning team in three years in a game, and I expect them to do whatever they can to try to match Colorado's pace tonight here. So we're going to go with over six goals, plus 105 in the Tampa Bay Lightning, Colorado Avalanche, game five of the Stanley Cups, level one lock.”
TB 3, COL 2 — Lightning beat the Avalanche 3-2 in Game 5 on Ondrej Palat's late goal — only 5 combined goals, under the Over 6 line (ESPN box score).
“The Yankees minus 125 with the take back being plus 115 for the Astros. Break this one down for us, Lee. A lot of people don't realize this. Houston Astros, second best record in the AL. We talked about it a couple weeks ago. They got off to a really slow start this year. But since then, they have been just about as good as the Bronx Bombers in every facet of the game. They have the third best ERA in baseball, the fourth lowest batting average against, and they have one big advantage here over New York, their bullpen. It's not that their bullpen is much better than the Yankees, but if you look at the usage of these relievers who will be available tonight for each team, it's clear. For Amber Valdez, Houston starter, gone six-plus innings and 11 of his 13 starts this year with how good the Astros' bullpen is, they should – all you need is a couple innings from guys like Ryan Presley and Ryan Stanek. So those two guys could close things out here. On the other side, the Yankees use Clay Holmes for their closer for a third straight game to close things out. So they won't be using him tonight unless Aaron Boone is absolutely desperate. I don't see that as the situation. These small matchup advantages here make big differences in close games. I think the home underdog here pulls it out here. Wrong team favorite. Houston Astros money line plus 115 they knock off the Bronx Bombers man I'll tell you right now there's a lot of times where I like to watch games and be able to stop watching them early this one's one I'm gonna watch start to finish I mean no doubt about it Yankees Astros two of the best teams in baseball uh what's there not to like about this one plus have a play on it as well so yeah I'll definitely be locked in on this one of course I'll be yelling all rise every time Aaron Judge and his 28 home runs comes to bat. I mean, just saying. And who knows? By the end of the game, he might have 30 to 31 of them. But again, the betonline.net line for this one, Yankees minus 125 versus the Astros with the take back being plus 115.”
NYY 7, HOU 6 — Yankees beat the Astros 7-6 on a late Aaron Judge go-ahead hit; Houston moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Stallions minus 5 versus the Breakers. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so just watch the tape again on both games these two teams played. Birmingham won both games. New Orleans, in fact, only scored 22 points in those two games. The last couple weeks, New Orleans' offense, they just can't get it going at all. So they got some real problems. Their head coach, Holt, said that they're going to try things a little bit different this week to shake things up. They got blown out last week, 20-3. They're limping down the stretch. year, I just don't think all of a sudden you're going to be able to go on the road. You're going to hit a little more in practice. I mean, if you haven't figured it out by now, you haven't figured it out. So Birmingham Jamar Chase, their quarterback who had a short stint with the Patriots in training camp a couple of years ago, then went to the CFL. He started as a backup, but he really does some nice things throwing the ball and also a lot of times third and five, third and eight. He can run for the first down. So I like the dimension that he has. I just think that they find ways to win games, and they also have the best kicker in the USFL. So you don't want to leave points on the board. If they get down there, they usually score and hit at least three. So I like Birmingham. I'm laying the five points here. We're going to go with a blowout special. The Birmingham Stallions reach the championship game, move their mark to 10-1.”
31-17 — Birmingham beat New Orleans 31-17 in the USFL semifinal, covering the -5 spread by 14 points (Wikipedia, 2022 USFL season).
“San Diego, a.k.a. Salam Diego Padres, going up against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Padres on the season are 44-27. They're in a heck of a race there out west. And the Philadelphia Phillies, well, they're 36-34. Not too bad. BetOnline.net line for this one. The Padres money line, minus 140 versus the Phillies. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah so Philadelphia Phillies continue to struggle on the road They fired Joe Girardi a couple weeks ago got red hot but this team has a winning percentage of exactly 500 That it 500 right on the button the last three years combined So it's pretty clear that they just aren't good enough to win these big games away from home. They just got swept by the Texas Rangers, and now they have to face Joe Musgrove. Well, who is Joe Musgrove? Well, a lot of people, I bet you 98% of the public don't realize this. Right now, he would be the leader for the NL Cy Young. They only have two guys here. Get this, for the Philadelphia Phillies hitting above 270, Kyle Swarber and Nick Castellanos are struggling. I just don't know how Philly even gets some offense going here. Musgrove, how good is he? 8-0 with a 159 ERA. His top pitch is also a fastball. It is what Philadelphia struggles with most. Just don't overthink this one here. Better team is going to win it here. San Diego Padres here. Money line minus 140 over the Philadelphia Phillies here.”
PHI 6, SD 2 — Phillies beat the Padres 6-2 behind Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto; San Diego moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
- Boston Red Sox team total Over 4.5 runs
- Atlanta Braves team total Over 4.5 runs
- Miami Marlins team total Over 4.5 runs
“So if you break it down, betonline.net, line for it over team totals. It's going to be plus 800 for all those teams, the Braves, Marlins, and Red Sox to go over four and a half runs. Give us the details on this one, Lee. Okay. So we're seeing a lot of teams, offenses really start to heat up. And they face pitchers maybe once or twice already in the year. And then you've got a couple pitchers here that we're going to go against who I think if you look on the face value and you look at, okay, their numbers, their wins, loss, and the ERA is pretty darn good. But the expected ERA is up to a point higher. So I just don't look at ERA. I look at the expected ERA. Watched a ton of games yesterday. I think I watched parts of four or five minutes of every single game yesterday. And I found three teams that some of them are already hitting well, and I think they're just going to go on a run right now and a tear. So what I'm going to do instead of betting just one game and just trying to win one game. If I can have a big day and three teams score five runs, I'm not asking them to score seven to eight runs, score five runs each, it returns eight to one. I can bet $10 and win $80. $100 returns $800. We're going to go with the Boston Red Sox, team total over four and a half runs. The Atlanta Braves, team total over four and a half runs. and the Miami Marlins team total over four and a half runs. So those three teams, the Red Sox, the Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, all of them to score five or more runs, and we get a huge payday.”
BOS 6-2, ATL 4-3, MIA 7-4 — Red Sox beat Tigers 6-2 (over 4.5 hit), Marlins beat Rockies 7-4 (over 4.5 hit), but Braves beat Giants only 4-3 (missed Over 4.5) — parlay loses on the Braves leg (ESPN box scores).
“The Twins money line, minus 145 versus the Indians. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah. Sonny Gray having one of the best rebound seasons I can remember in recent memory. I thought this kid was done after a stint in Cincinnati. His ERA was climbing by a full point every year of his tenure there. Then he comes over to Minnesota, and he is putting up better numbers than guys like even Garrett Cole. That's right. He has a career-best 209 ERA that drops to just 1.73 at home. Are you kidding me? He was out for a couple weeks with a pec injury. So I stayed off him in his last start. And what did he do in his return? Well, through five innings, allowed just three hits and shut out the Mariners on the road. It looks like he is back to his form to earn him the number one starter spot years ago. The other thing that I like about this matchup is Tristan McKenzie's numbers against Minnesota. This kid, Cleveland starter, massive, 6'5", but he only weighs 170 pounds. He hasn't grown into his body yet, and you can tell when he's on the mound. You can see he's throwing as hard as he can, but his average fastball velocity is still down near 92 miles per hour. He has a 296 ERA, but as expected, ERA is almost a full point higher at 383. He also really struggled against Minnesota so far in his career, just one in four with a 540 ERA in five starts. And on top of that, his strikeout rate is down at 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings compared to his career average of 9.6. This is an experienced Twins lineup that is going to push him deep into counts, and I think it's going to get to that Guardians bullpen early here. I think the Twins here run away with this one. Blowout special. Minnesota Twins. Moneyline minus 145 over the Indians, Guardians, whatever you want to call them. That's right. I forget. I always get caught slipping, start calling them the Indians when I should call them the Guardians. That is my fault right there. But it's going to take a little bit of time to get used to that. Again, the Cleveland Guardians. But, yeah, there you go. Blowout special. BetOnline.net line. Minnesota Twins Moneyline minus 145 versus The Guardians.”
MIN 10, CLE 11 — Guardians rallied for 4 runs in the 9th to beat the Twins 11-10; Minnesota moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“We're talking Stanley Cup Final, Tampa Bay Lightning, Colorado Avalanche. We'll let you know exactly how we look at it, how we see it, and what level lock it'll be. We'll do that next here on Locked on Bets. Open it, open it, open it. Lee has the key to the lock of the day. All right, Lee, here we go. Lock of the day. Excited about this one. Stanley Cup final. Right now we know Colorado is up in the series 2-1 over the Lightning. Let's break this one down. BetOnline.net line for this one. The Lightning money line minus 105 versus the Avalanche. How are you seeing game four shakeout, Lee? Yeah, I talked about it when the series started. This was going to be a series dominated by the home team. Colorado showed that especially in game two They went 7 and Tampa showed it in game three with another blowout They won 6 I think the altitude plays a big difference when these teams play in Colorado And I think the Lightning are also the best home team in the league right now during postseason. They're 7-1 at home this postseason. And their one loss came in their very first home game in the playoffs against Toronto. Seems like forever. That was a long, long time ago. It seems like two, three months ago. So you just knew guys like Steve Samkos were going to step up in a rebound spot here the other night. But more importantly, Tampa is so good because they have guys like Pat Maroon, who play their best games in the playoffs. Maroon, 34 years old, hasn't scored more than 20 goals since 2016. But all of a sudden, when the playoffs come around, he has one of his best performances. This guy is so gritty, has so much experience. He had a goal and assist in game three. And Tampa got contributions from other guys like Ross Colton and Nick Paul. The Kukurov injury for the Bolts is a big one. But now the Avalanche have more questions than that after Kemper was pulled the other night. That is their one weakness. I think regardless of who starts in goal for them in this one, And Tampa has figured out a way at least at home to take advantage of this weakness. Look for the series to be tied up 2-2, going back to Denver here. We're going to go the level two lock, Tampa Bay Lightning money line, minus 105 over the Colorado Avalanche.”
TB 2, COL 3 — Avalanche beat the Lightning 3-2 in overtime on Andrew Cogliano's Game 4 winner; Tampa Bay moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The White Sox plus 115 versus the Blue Jays. Break this one down for us, Lee. So Kevin Gaussman has started to fall apart for the Toronto Blue Jays. He just signed a five-year, $110 million contract this summer, and he started out the season like their ace, went 7-3, 251 ERA for the first two months of the season. But in his last three starts, he's given up 14 earned runs. We get this. It probably equals my senior year's 526 slugging percentage again. So just doesn't have it. something's going on. He gave up just 17 runs in his first 10 starts combined. And it's not like these performances lately are coming against, you know, top offensive teams. He struggled against Minnesota, Baltimore, and Detroit, who are all bottom half the league in scoring. The White Sox are starting to heat up. We talked about teams, you know, starting to put it together. I think they're one of them. They've won seven in the last nine against top competition and the offense has scored five or more runs in nine of the last 11 games. If the Chicago's bullpen here can just keep it together for a bit tonight, I think they open it up enough of a lead here to hold on. So, I think the wrong team is favored. We're going with a pale O's, the Chicago White Sox money line, plus 115 tonight to get the W.”
CHW 7, TOR 6 — White Sox beat the Blue Jays 7-6 in 12 innings; Chicago's moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Betonline.net line for this one. the Angels minus 160 versus Royals. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, it looks like the LA Angels are going to be this year's Jekyll and Hyde team of Major League Baseball. Last year was Detroit in the first half horrible, and then they came on the second half. After a franchise record 15-game losing streak through May and June, they've now won four of the last six, and they've been shutting teams down defensively. They've given up just 17 runs in those six games. And they have a rookie named Reed Detmers. So a lot of people kind of say, oh, that name sounds familiar because he threw the no-hitter last year. This kid's still only 22 years old. That's right, 22 years old. So much was thought of him. He started in AA when he was drafted in the first round 10th So gets a start tonight against Kansas City This kid is a lefty bit of a sidearm release and he reminds me a lot of Max Fried who we talked about and I love His advantage here is he's facing a Royals lineup that has most of its top players in the middle and back of the lineup who are left-handed hitters. Even if they get guys like Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt on, Some of the better hitters like Andrew Benatendi are lefties that are supposed to drive these guys in. Offensively, Mike Trout has bounced back really well after one of his worst hitting streaks in his career. And the bullpen has started pitching much better recently. I think this line should be closer to minus 190, especially with how dominant the Angels have been against Kansas City in recent years. How dominant? Well, 8-2 in the last 10 home games against the Royals here. We're going to go here. Like I said, this should be a blowout special. L.A. Angels money line minus 160 over the hapless Kansas City Royals.”
KC 12, LAA 11 — Royals beat the Angels 12-11 despite two Shohei Ohtani homers; LA's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. Notre Dame minus 140 versus the Aggies. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Break it down. Yeah, it's an afternoon game, and I don't give out too many afternoon games because sometimes there's some people that end up listening right before the games start, but I'm going to give them a little incentive to want to get to the podcast during their lunch hour. I like this game a lot. So first of all, I love to play the emotions, the emotional edge, and I think it's there right now for Notre Dame. Why do I say that? Well, Texas A&M beat their rival. How big of a rival is beating Texas? Well, Texas won't play them in football or basketball anymore. And they only play them in baseball in a midweek Tuesday game once a year. Texas A&M has always felt like, you know, the little, the younger brother. And Texas, you know, tries to, you know, always one-up them. Well, they got over the hump last night, and they had that big win yesterday in their win against Texas. So emotionally, Texas A&M is on an absolute high. I think it's going to be tough for them to refocus the next day. I got to see Notre Dame first in a three-game series against Miami. And even though Miami won two out of three, that might have been right up there with the best that Miami played all year. I loved all three starters that Notre Dame has here, all lefties. And I thought they locate the ball well high velocity all these guys are throwing 94 95 miles an hour Don walk too many players That what gets you in real trouble in the College World Series And their lineup, when they were here, their least, their lowest batting average of their nine starters was 292. Wow. So Miami just caught them at the right time here and played really well. So sometimes that happens. And I was really impressed, even though they lost two of the three games. It was very hard fought. So I like Notre Dame in this situation here. And I just don't think that A&M. How about starting pitching or even relief pitching here? Starting pitch, they started off to start the first game 495 ERA. They just, they pieced it together. They're the Cinderella story. Well, you know what? The clock strikes 12. The glass slipper comes off. Give me Texas A&M to finally go down here. Notre Dame, minus 140, level two lock against Texas A&M this afternoon.”
TAMU 5, ND 1 — Texas A&M eliminated Notre Dame 5-1 in this College World Series elimination game, the opposite of the stored result; Notre Dame's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“The Brewers, minus 170 versus the Cardinals. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Well, so I think these are clearly the best two teams in the NL Central. In fact, they've even split the eight meetings so far, four games apiece. But I think one team's really starting to roll right now, while the other kind of just back and forth. And the team starting to get rolling is the Brewers. They have a really good lineup and two good pitchers, two aces for both teams going. But here's the problem. Myles Mikolas, the pitcher for St. Louis, came within a pitch of getting a no-hitter. I mean, that close to getting a no-hitter in his last start. And he looks great, but he threw 100 and almost 30 pitches. I think it was 129 pitches. Yeah. So, that's a problem. I usually do not see that here. Coming back the other way, I love the starter that we have going for Milwaukee. So, you know, people think of Milwaukee as just this hitting team, but they got a kid that's on the hill here tonight in Corbin Burns, number 39, that can deal. And he's a strikeout pitcher here. And just think that the St. Louis team, just like I said, they're back and forth, whereas Milwaukee, they've scored at least four runs in eight of the last nine games. They're playing at home here. I think they've been waiting for this series here. I think this is the time they let it go. Both teams are 38-30. I think they're going to win this series, and it all starts tonight with Corbin Burns on the hill here. They also will have their closer. Did not pitch yesterday, so that's important if the game is fairly close. I'm going to lay the 170 here. Milwaukee Brewers blowout special over the St. Louis Cardinals. Boom, there it is right there. A little baseball action for this Monday. I like that one. the Brewers and the Cardinals. Good way to get things started. Blowout special here on Locked on Bets. Again, the betonline.net line for it. The Brewers minus 170 versus the Cardinals.”
MIL 2, STL 0 — Brewers shut out the Cardinals 2-0 behind Corbin Burnes; Milwaukee's moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Betonline.net line for this one. Tampa Bay plus one and a half runs plus 160 versus Yankees. Lee, why is this a hidden gem? Break it down. All right. So here's why. Because you have two really good pitchers here. And sometimes you don't want to play the game. It might be decided by one run. So the Yankees are minus 130 in this game against Tampa and Tampa. Yankees red hot, even though they lost yesterday 11 to 10. But I think there a different way to attack this game here not the total So with Garrett Cole on the hill and Shane McClanahan for Tampa Bay these are two guys Cole been incredible the last two outings I mean, he just looks so good. McClanahan right up there. Yeah, he's his ERA 184 for the year. So the totalness in the Yankees we know can hit is sitting at six and a half. So you don't want to take a chance by one error or one hit, you know, ends up going through a bleeder through the infield. Something happens. So why not attack it a different way? We're going to take the one and a half runs here and the Tampa Bay Rays. So I think Tampa Bay at home, I think their strong bullpen could come into play here. Hey, they win the game great. If they lose the game by one run, that's great also here. We're going to take the one-and-a-half runs here in the Tampa Bay Rays. That's my hidden gem here over the strong New York Yankees.”
NYY 4, TB 2 — Yankees beat the Rays 4-2, a 2-run margin that fails to cover Tampa Bay's +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“This one's going to be Cody Durden going up against J.P. Young Savage Buys. Cody Durden is 12-4-1. Young Savage is 9-4. BetOnline.net line for this one. Durden, Moneyline, minus 115 versus J.P. Young Savage Buys. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so sometimes in the undercard, you see some real good situations to play, and this is one. So Cody Durden trains out of Atlanta. Don't have really any good fighting gyms. But you have to read and you have to, you know, keep up on what's going on. So I'm sometimes looking two, three, four fights ahead for something. And I actually went to USC London. And I remember them talking about Cody Durden. They threw him up against Mohamed Mikheyev, who is, I think, going to be a champion in the next two to three years. So they threw him to the Wolves, sent him overseas. He lost in 58 seconds. He got guillotine choked. But here's a guy, his record isn't great. He's won two and one, but his draw against Chris Gutierrez, who is very good, I think this guy is really improved. Why? Because he spent two of the last three months here down in American top team training. So didn't have the sparring partners to go against in Atlanta. What does he do? He goes down, moves down to Florida and trains with the very best here. He going to find a guy here in JP buys who I don think really belongs in the UFC He was at the welterweight division 135 And now after two losses where he really never in the fights he was outclassed He going to try to drop down and move to 125. And I just don't think he's at that level here. He can only submit Durden here, but I think Durden with this training, training at a high level with guys that are going to be champions, maybe higher weight classes, who he has to go against. And when you fight the best, I think it just makes you better here. So I think finally, with some good training partners and a good training camp, I think it's a difference. It's sitting here at money line, minus 115. I make this line minus 150 to 160. I think it's going to move up here as the week progresses. I'm taking Cody Durden minus 115 in the undercard on UFC fight night on Saturday night here over JP Buys.”
Cody Durden finished J.P. Buys by TKO (punches) at 1:08 of round 1 at UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot (Wikipedia results table sourced from official bout records). (Durden def. Buys, TKO (punches), Rd. 1, 1:08)
“J-Low plus 950 to win by KO or TKO. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so it's a co-main event this Saturday. The main card starts at 7 o'clock. This is probably going to go off about 8.45 Eastern time. So, Cowboy. Everyone knows Cowboy. I mean, Cowboy, first all-time with 18. Get that. 18 UFC bonuses. But Lauzon, a lot of people don't know this guy, But this guy's been fighting in the UFC since 2007, whereas Cerrone started 2011. He's tied for third with 15. Cerrone, second all-time with 16 UFC finishes. Lazan tied for sixth with 13. So when the Cowboy steps into the ring, he will be tied second all-time with 38 times here, stepping in the ring. Lazan fought 25 times. Cerrone, the cowboy, is winless since 2019 at 0-5 with one no contest. He was TKO'd in four of his last five fights. Lazan won his last fight by TKO in round one, but it was back in 2019. Prior to that, he lost four of his last five bouts. So this could be the last fight for both guys. Cowboy 39 Lazan is 38 here Lazone is known to be a guy that comes out like a ball of fire and I just think it going to be bad news for Cowboy He just has lost his chin, and when a guy loses his reflexes and loses his chin, all it takes is a pretty good punch, something that he could have maybe dusted off and continued to fight maybe four or five years ago. When you lose your chin, you're done here. So we're going with not J-Lo, J-Low Luz on here, plus $950. That means for every $100, you bet it returns $950. KO or TKO over Donald Cowboy Sarone.”
Joe Lauzon vs Donald Cerrone was scrapped on the day of UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett after Lauzon suffered leg cramping; the bout never happened, voiding the prop (Wikipedia event article sourced from official fight-card records).
“Kevin Trailblazer Holland going up against Tim the Dirty Bird Means. I like these nicknames. Pretty cool right here. Trailblazer Holland is 22-7. Tim, the Dirty Bird is 33-12-1. BetOnline.net line for this one. Trailblazer Holland minus 280 versus Dirty Bird. Break this one down for us, Lee. So at one time, Trailblazer was really, he was red hot. So he came into the UFC. He wins his first five fights. And then he loses to Derek Brunson in March of 2021. Then he decided for some reason, I guess he was upset the way he performed, didn't perform up to expectations. I think he wanted to be more of a showman, would do some stuff in the ring, and just did not have his head there. He fought Marvin Vittori here when another fighter couldn't fight. He stepped in on short notice, and he lost a second unanimous decision. Well, since that time, he's been back from forth. But all of a sudden, I think the guy figured out that he got to get serious. He's got talent and cut the showboating out. And in his last bout, he took apart Alex Oliveira, who's a real good fighter. Now he actually steps down a little bit and fight Tim's means here. I think this fight should be he should be a five or six to one favorite here. Get him at under three to one. Tim means is mediocre at best here. uh i'm gonna take the trailblazer kevin holland here minus 280 i think he gets the job done i don't know whether it's going to be by ko tko submission or decision but i can't see him losing this fight here blowout special the trailblazer kevin holland over tim the dirty bird means boom”
Kevin Holland submitted Tim Means via D'Arce choke at 1:28 of round 2 at UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett (Wikipedia results table sourced from official bout records). (Holland def. Means, Submission (D'Arce choke), Rd. 2, 1:28)
“Been online.net line for this one. The Yankees minus 110 versus Toronto. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so Toronto, pressure's on them. I mean, we're 60. Both of these two teams have played 63 of their 162 games. And Toronto is already 10 games back. and they're in second place. So they need to take at least two out of three in this series to start making their move. You don't want to be a wild card in the playoffs. And really good matchup. They've got Ross Stripling, 3-1 with a 314 ERA. But the problem is he's going against an even better pitcher for the Yankees, Jordan Montgomery, 2-1, 270 ERA. I know Toronto's got power, but the Yankees have even more power, and they're getting timely hitting. So they believe in themselves. They're playing free and loose when you got Aaron Judge leading off. Oh, my God. I mean, Anthony Rizzo, he came through in the ninth inning with a big hit in the last game. Hey, I think it's going to be a bad night here in the Rogers Center for Toronto. They just can't seem to put it together. Yeah, they're playing okay, nine and six the last 15 games this month. But Yankees even better. They won 13 out of 14 in the month of June here. They're just finding ways to win. I'm going to back the Yankees. You're not going to find them at this kind of price too often. Yankees, minus 110, level one lock over the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night.”
NYY 12, TOR 3 — Yankees routed the Blue Jays 12-3; New York's moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. We're going to talk about Machete Durioff minus 240 with the take back being plus 200. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so I know these two fighters well. seeing their fights live, watch a bunch of tape. And what I like to do when I handicap is I like to make a projected line. These are one of the things that I do in every sport. In football, I'm watching games Saturday night, Sunday. Once the games are finishing on Saturday nights, I make lines, what I think the lines should be for the next week in football. Same thing in the NFL. You get to the late game on Sunday, I'm making the lines. Projections are important. so you find out if something's off you're like what am I missing if you're right on it you're like okay usually I'm right on it this is the one fight of the 14 fight that's right 14 fights are taking place on this fight night which starts at four o'clock eastern on Saturday one line that's just way off I had this line I think it should be close to a pick-em why because it's just two totally different styles. Durioff, really good wrestler, but I think he's overrated. Buckley, here's a guy with knockout power with his fists and also with his feet. He can end a fight in so many ways. Got a lot more experience. In fact, he fought six fights already in the UFC. This will be Durioff's only second fight here. He's going to hostile territory in Austin, Texas. I think they're going to love what Buckley has. Everyone's looking for a knockout. Yeah, he's going to have to be a little cautious, but are you kidding me? At 2-1, a guy as dangerous here as Buckley, I'm taking it here. So I'm going with Betalittle, went a whole lot. Joaquin Buckley plus 200, we're going to get us practically back to even on this one bet.”
Joaquin Buckley defeated Albert Duraev via TKO (doctor stoppage) at 5:00 of round 2 at UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett, not by decision (Wikipedia results table sourced from official bout records). (Buckley def. Duraev, TKO (doctor stoppage), Rd. 2, 5:00)
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Rangers minus 145 versus the Tigers. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so the Rangers actually woken up a little bit after a really slow start. Corey Seager, Marcus Seaman, their two big free agent signings have turned things around, playing really well. They'd actually be contending, believe it or not, with Houston and the AL West if they just would have had any type of, you know, consistent starting pitching here. But they just haven gotten it They do have one consistent starter though It Martin Perez tonight starter This kid running a 218 ERA which is less than half his career average and his 185 ERA on the road here ranks 10th amongst all Major League Baseball pitchers. That's up there with guys like Corbin Burns and Pablo Lopez. He's benefited from a pretty easy schedule so far, but it's not like his level of competition is changing tonight when he's facing the Tigers. Get this. This team cannot hit the ball. The Tigers rank dead last in the majors in scoring. They're averaging 2.71 runs per game, which is a full half run lower than the next team. They've lost four straight here at home. They've been outscored by 27 runs. it gets so bad against the White Sox yesterday that they had to pitch not one, not two, but three position players to save their bullpen arms. If Detroit is going to turn things around, I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon. Let's get back on one of the more undervalued here pitchers in baseball today and beat an absolutely awful offense here. Blowout special, Texas Rangers money line, minus 145 here against the Detroit Tigers.”
TEX 3, DET 1 — Rangers beat the Tigers 3-1; Texas's moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Boston Celtics minus four versus the Golden State Warriors. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so if you would have looked at a number of stats after Game 6, you'd say Boston wins this game. Steph Curry, 0 for 9 from three-point land on Thursday night. Are you kidding me? Also, Boston out-rebounded them 55-42. So those two things alone, you think, wow, this game is over. Boston is up 3-2, but that wasn't the case. I mean, the turnovers, 16 turnovers by Boston. So after watching Boston every single playoff game, one thing is evident. You see that they need a point guard. They need a facilitator So they have a collection of seven eight really good guys here but I think they going to have to trade for a point guard if they want to win it all here So, you know, Tatum, Jason Brown, these guys are, they're just, they're too similar. So what we found out with Golden State, yeah, are they perfect? No, but they do enough things right. All they need to do is have two of their top four guys have a good game and they win. So it's not like they need three out of four here. So what we saw is Sartreman Poole hit some big shots here. Andrew Wiggins came forward. The top two players didn't even play great. So I think, like I said, all they need is two of the big four to do enough here. I think Klay Thompson or Steph Curry will have a big game here. I'm going to go with the Golden State Warriors here plus the four points.”
GSW 103, BOS 90 — Warriors beat the Celtics 103-90 in Game 6 to clinch the NBA Finals; Golden State's +4 covers easily (ESPN box score).
“The BetOnline.net line for this. Boston Celtics minus four versus the Golden State Warriors. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so if you would have looked at a number of stats after Game 6, you'd say Boston wins this game. Steph Curry, 0 for 9 from three-point land on Thursday night. Are you kidding me? Also, Boston out-rebounded them 55-42. So those two things alone, you think, wow, this game is over. Boston is up 3-2, but that wasn't the case. I mean, the turnovers, 16 turnovers by Boston. So after watching Boston every single playoff game, one thing is evident. You see that they need a point guard. They need a facilitator So they have a collection of seven eight really good guys here but I think they going to have to trade for a point guard if they want to win it all here So, you know, Tatum, Jason Brown, these guys are, they're just, they're too similar. So what we found out with Golden State, yeah, are they perfect? No, but they do enough things right. All they need to do is have two of their top four guys have a good game and they win. So it's not like they need three out of four here. So what we saw is Sartreman Poole hit some big shots here. Andrew Wiggins came forward. The top two players didn't even play great. So I think, like I said, all they need is two of the big four to do enough here. I think Klay Thompson or Steph Curry will have a big game here. I'm going to go with the Golden State Warriors here plus the four points. and I'm also going to put half my wager on the money line. This could be a big night for me. Wrong team favorite here. I'm going to go with the Golden State Warriors over the Boston Celtics.”
GSW 103, BOS 90 — Warriors beat the Celtics 103-90 in Game 6 to clinch the NBA Finals; Golden State's moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“The Brewers, minus 128, with the take-back being plus 114. Break this one down for us, Lee. Well, the Mets, boy, they keep humming along at the top of the NL East. Milwaukee Brewers quietly dropping quickly atop the NL Central. In fact, on May 25th, Milwaukee was first in the division by three and a half games and had a plus 35 run differential. Today, they're two and a half games back to St. Louis with just a plus one run differential. Christian Yellich, who was, I mean, best player in baseball a couple of years ago. So he's sitting here almost at midseason with six homers and 22 RBIs. Are you kidding me? The guy has just dropped off. He's had back problems. Yeah, they just broke an eight-game losing streak against the lowly Washington Nationals. And now they start a stretch against get this the Mets Cardinals Blue Jays and Rays I don think it going to be easy to start a new winning streak tonight though David Peterson is starting for New York and his progression back from injury has looked fantastic the last two starts In fact, he faced the two L.A. teams, and he has already nine strikeouts and six in a third innings pitched with just two earned runs allowed and just a 2.08 batting average against. So you get used to hearing guys' names like DeGrom and Scherzer for the Mets, but these depth guys have been spectacular and the ones that have led New York to their division lead. The Mets, by the way, 4-0 in their last four as a home underdog here. We're going to go with the New York Mets here. Money line, wrong team favorite over the Milwaukee Brewers. Oh, there it is like that. I like that, man. Lee, you were reaching deep for that one. The New York Mets, man. You brought that one. That's the way to get us started. BetOnline.net live for this one. Again, that's WTF. The Brewers minus 128. The take back plus 114. Brewers, Mets.”
MIL 10, NYM 2 — Brewers routed the Mets 10-2; New York's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“How about the Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles? The Blue Jays on the season, 36-25. The Orioles, well, they're 27-36. BetOnline.net line for this one. The Blue Jays, minus one and a half runs, minus 140 versus the Orioles. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, Q. So, Jose Barrios has really rebounded well after a rough start at home this year. In fact, he's 3-0 with a 3 ERA in Toronto this year, which is really incredible when you consider that he didn't even record two outs in his home debut. Since then, he has not allowed more than two earned runs the last four at home, and his biggest development has been his ability to force hitters to swing. In fact, he allowed nine walks in the first 24 innings this year. He has allowed just eight walks in 41 innings since. He's facing an Orioles lineup that has improved this season for sure, but they're not getting much help from their pitching staff. Bruce Zimmerman starts here, and he has been awful on the road. One and four with a 689 ERA on the road, and he's given up, get this, not four, not eight, not ten, but 14 home runs in just 31 innings away from Baltimore. Remember, a lot of the Orioles pitchers are benefiting at home. We talked about it from the new ballpark dimensions, but it's not been an improvement away here from home against their Toronto lineup with power from spots one through nine. This is not a good matchup for Zimmerman or the Urials. This one should be a blowout. You're going to be able to turn this one off by the fifth of the sixth inning cue. Blowout special. Toronto Blue Jays minus the one and a half runs, minus 140 over the hapless Baltimore Orioles.”
TOR 7, BAL 6 — Blue Jays beat the Orioles 7-6 in 10 innings, a 1-run win that fails to cover Toronto's -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one, Lee. Cody Spartan Stamen minus 500 versus Eddie Wineland. Man, explain this one. Break this one down for us. Okay, first of all, you've got to understand the nickname. So people are thinking, well, you know, maybe he's a warrior. That's why he calls himself Spartan. Nope. He's from Sparta, Michigan. Oh, okay. So, yeah, thought that was interesting. Looked that up the first time I saw him. And here's what I do in the UFC. There's a lot of fights that are priced above minus 300. What that means, you've got to lay three, four, five, 600 to win $100. So it's really tough to play a favorite like that straight up because, hey, anyone can get lucky. We've seen even 8-10-1 underdogs even win fights like that. They get one punch. But you can limit your losses by doing parlays. So what I mean, put together two fighters you think have a real good chance of winning, or three of them, and you can get it to pay even the money or even plus money. So that's the way you bet big favorites in the UFC. So Stamen, kind of middle of the road. I think the reason he's matched up against the really poor fighters, he lost his last two fights. He had a couple of fights, in fact, three that were canceled during COVID. But before that, he fought Jimmy Rivera, who's really tough. He beat Brian Kelliver. He beat Edong Song Actually I thought he won it but it was a majority decision draw But he even fought Al Jermaine Sterling So he fought some really good fighters He's probably in the middle of the pack of all the guys in the UFC in that division, 135-pound class. He's fighting a guy here that is just not good at all. Now, what's happened with Eddie Wineland? Well, he started off and they thought maybe he had a shot. he's now 37 years old he's been in the usc get this all the way back to 2011 um he just can't take a punch anymore his reflexes he's got a glass jaw when he gets hit with anything he crumples to the ground here i think they're going to pull his contract after this fight you get one more chance to go against Eddie Wineland here. I'm going to put my man Cody Spartan Stamen here in a parlay. So this will be a level three lock here. Cody Spartan Stamen here over Eddie Wineland here in the UFC fight night going on Saturday night.”
Cody Stamann finished Eddie Wineland by TKO (punches) at 0:59 of round 1 at UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett (Wikipedia results table sourced from official bout records). (Stamann def. Wineland, TKO (punches), Rd. 1, 0:59)
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Phillies minus 135 versus the Marlins with the take back being plus 125. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so I don't like the Miami Marlins management or ownership by any stretch of the imagination here. But I do believe, and I think most people who've studied the talent on the team and in the organization, they're going to be contending the next one to three years. Everyone knows it's going to happen on the back of their elite pitching staff. Sandy Alcantara, tonight starter, might be the best one of that group. He might even be a top three pitcher in baseball. so far this year. 6-2 with a mind-numbing 161 low ERA. He's coming off another complete game shutout and now has given up just 10 earned runs in 58 innings. There's guys that have given up 15-20 homers. He's given up just 10 earned runs in 58 innings dating back to the start of May. The Phillies, nice, fun story, winning nine in a row after firing Joe Girardi, but they got blown out yesterday and don't have the roster, I believe, to be the team that everyone hopes they can be with a new manager this year. Aaron Nola, good, actually has had some success against the Marlins, but Alcantara, I just think the most underrated pitcher in baseball right now is even better. I think the Marlins are going to squeak out 2-1, 3-2 final here. So I say the wrong team is favored, Miami Marlins. Money line plus 125 over the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.”
3-2 — Phillies beat the Marlins 3-2 on a Rhys Hoskins ninth-inning RBI (ESPN box score); Marlins ML loses.
“How about the St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates? The Cardinals 34-27. The Pirates 24 and 34. BetOnline.net line for this one. The Cardinals minus one and a half runs, plus 105 versus the Pirates. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Mitch Keller, I mean, he just has not been able to transition what I think is an arsenal of pitches to Major League Baseball. He was once considered one of the top prospects in Pittsburgh's organization, but instead he's gone 9-22 with a 5.85 ERA and 50 appearances now. The team has been forced to bring him out of the bullpen. He's been that bad recently when he's been up for the Major League Club, and they just don't know what to do. Now they have to start him tonight because they have so many tired arms. So St. Louis coming off a really bad loss yesterday to the Reds. where they just couldn't catch a break on the mound. I think you're going to see them break out offensively in this one and get back on their winning ways Sometimes you just can overthink it here The Redbirds widen their lead in the NL Central here So we going to go with the St Louis Cardinals minus the one and a half runs plus 105 here over the Pittsburgh Pirates.”
7-5 — Cardinals beat the Pirates 7-5 on a Paul Goldschmidt go-ahead homer (ESPN box score); Cardinals -1.5 covers a 2-run margin.
“The betonline.net line for this one. Golden State minus four versus Celtics. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so these two teams really are talented and what it's come down to, in my opinion, is not only who shoots the ball best, and that's how it works out in most games, who shoots the ball best, and energy. And energy translates into rebounding. So what we've seen here is, hey, you can't figure out who's going to shoot well. But it seems like whenever a team out-rebounds the other team, they win the game, you're going to get extra chances here. And Golden State, they were down one game. Boston, all they had to do was win that game. It looked like they put the series away, and they were flat as a pancake. Yep, they didn't get outshot, but they certainly got outrebounded, outhustled. And Draymond Green, even though he hasn't been a factor, his team, they were just going after everything. I mean, they were all over the place, even throwing balls off the Celtics who were standing around out of bounds. So I think it's going to change here. Boston has not lost two straight games in a row all postseason here. I think that their athleticism and their size is going to be an advantage. And I've seen it against Miami. They did it against my heat. Whenever they were counted out, especially, you know, in games five and game seven, they went on the opponent's floor and dominated. And I think you're going to see it again here. So, I mean, you've got to tip your cap to what Golden State did with Steph Curry. I had them. I rode them. He played magnificent. But bottom line is Draymond Green has been a disappointment in this series here So I think Golden State is going to have to out and also out Boston And I don see it happening here So Clay Thompson he got to step up his game Jordan Poole one of them is going to have to join him. I just like, I think Robert Williams and Al Horford are going to dominate. They got to feed these guys underneath here. So I think it's going to be a great game. Might come down. This might be that game that comes down to that last shot. If it is, I want the four points. I'm taking the four points here. So I think Jason Tatum will have a big game with his athleticism, his height. I just think they make it tough here on Golden State. I think Golden State's going to have to shoot 42%, 43% from three-point land to win this game, and I don't think it's going to happen. I'm taking the four points here. We're going with a level two lock right out of the gate on Monday. I'm taking the Boston Celtics to go on top and get game five and go up three,”
94-104 — Warriors beat the Celtics 104-94 in NBA Finals Game 5 to go up 3-2 in the series (ESPN box score); Celtics +4 loses by a 10-point margin.
“BetOnline.net line for this one. We're going to roll under eight and a half runs, minus 105, Atlanta versus Pittsburgh. This is a total game. What are you thinking about this one, Lee? How are you feeling this one? All right, so I feel sorry for the Pittsburgh fans. Unless you're going to see the other team play or seeing a prospect before they leave to go to another team. Not much to like there. Well, they're going to see a kid for the Atlanta Braves named Spencer Strider. He might be the next big thing in Major League Baseball. His kid's just 23 years old, ranks in the 98th percentile among all Major League pitchers in fastball velocity. I've watched this guy throw quite a bit. He's hitting 100 miles per hour easy even in the fifth and sixth innings. Teams haven't picked up on his fastball movement or his spin at all either, and he's in the 99th percentile among all pitchers in strikeout rate here. It's not 36.8%, and he's not walking many guys either, just 18 walks in over 33 innings. We've talked about this before, but the more you avoid contact, the better, And that's going to be especially helpful against the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that's inept and ninth most in strikeouts in baseball. I don't think it's going to be a big offensive day for Atlanta either here. They have an afternoon game on Saturday, so likely have a scheduled day off for a lot of the big hitters in the lineup. I think they're just going to maybe be in one of those modes, just not excited to play a team. They're not fired up, not a big division rival. And they're facing this kid named Contreras, Pittsburgh's top prospect. He is in the area under two in this one. I wouldn't be surprised if this is like a 4-1, 3-2 game here. So I think this game is an easy under 8.5, minus 105 here. Atlanta Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates, level one lock.”
4-2 — Braves beat the Pirates 4-2, with Spencer Strider fanning 8 (ESPN box score); combined 6 runs stays under 8.5.
“Lock of the day number two, NBA final action. How about the Celtics and the Warriors? Celtics lead the series 2-1. Game four is in Boston. BetOnline.net line for this one. The Celtics minus four versus the Dubs. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So I had Boston for my clients and felt really good about it and was never really challenged. There's one little run there. I think it was late third, early fourth for Golden State. But other than that, they just didn't seem to come to play. Now, this game reminds me of when the Celtics went up three to two against the Heat. Celtics are up two to one now. And that game where they're up three to two, everyone's talking about the Miami Heat. Oh, Jimmy Butler, he can barely walk. Talking about Steph Curry, will he play? He's going to play. He's fine. Trust me, these are the NBA finals. They just didn't have the motivation. For some reason, they absolutely blew out Boston and just went in there like, hey, we're going to roll into Boston and win easy. Well Boston no tough place to come out with a victory And they just had some just absolutely bad turnovers committed too many fouls here Draymond Green, I mean, he's got to score more than two points. Trust me, I think Kerr is going to challenge him here. I think he scores 8 to 12 points here in this game. He hits a couple threes. You're looking for an over in points. He's your guy here. I think he'll be motivated here. This is where he plays his best here. So I think you'll see a better defensive effort here. Yeah, they played Steph Curry on Jason Tatum, and I thought Boston take advantage of it in the last game. I don't see that happening as much here. I think they'll rotate a little bit more here and get ready, ladies and gentlemen. I mean, buckle up here. This is going to be an out-and-out war here, but I think Golden State's going to light it up here. I think the Splash Brothers, you're going to see why they get their nickname. and even Kid Splash, Jordan Poole, is going to have a big game here. So I think this game is going to go down to seven games. It's going to be a seven-game series. I'm grabbing all the points here. First time ever, a double special, a wrong team favored, and a level two lock, Golden State Warriors, plus four over the Boston Celtics tonight.”
97-107 — Warriors beat the Celtics 107-97 in NBA Finals Game 4 behind Steph Curry's 43 points (ESPN box score); Warriors +4 covers by a 10-point margin.
“BenOnline.net line for this one. The Rays money line, minus 105 versus the Twins. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so the top play for Jack, Jack Bond, my chief analyst for baseball, myself. Last night we were watching the games and we texted each other. A lot of times we'll do this. We'll say, okay, what are your top three plays going into tomorrow? Both of us had the same side. So when that happens, I think we hit like 85, 90%. So we're watching the Twins last night, and there some things that really concern me about this team right now They lost seven of the last ten including four of five to the Tigers Their bullpen is really struggling And guys like Buxton and also Sanchez just not contributing like they supposed to. Now, three of the five guys in their starting rotation are out with injuries. And 33-year-old Chris Archer is the only pitcher with more than 10 starts. The bullpen gave up six runs, not one through five, came up six runs last night to the Yankees in another game where they blew the lead, and they're going with another bullpen game tonight. I mean, this spells trouble here. Tampa, on the other hand, comes into this one with their bullpen throwing just nine innings last three games. They just continue to keep pace with the AL East Yankees here, even though nobody is talking about them. They had a day off before this one. And get this, they're 21-9 in the last 30 games as a road favorite. They know how to get the job done away from Tampa here. I think they'll do it again in this one here. I'm going with the Tampa Bay Rays here. Money line. Jack and I love this game. It's not a level one. It's not a level two, but a level three luck. There it is right there. Level three lock, Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins, closing things out on this Friday.”
4-9 — Twins beat the Rays 9-4 behind two Byron Buxton home runs (ESPN box score); Rays ML loses.
“bet online.net line for this one we're going to roll over seven and a half runs minus 115 angels versus red socks break this one down for us lee i just want to give the credit where it's due and a lot of credit and most of it be honest with you for our baseball goes to our lead analyst Jack Bond. Jack, you can watch a lot of games and you're watching as a fan. He can find those finer things that can make a difference and he can extract those things. And sometimes he doesn't use it in that game or the next game. Sometimes it comes out a week or a month later. And one of the reasons the LA Angels are on this 13-game losing streak is because one of their top pitchers is just not pitching real well in big spots. He told me that Otani was going to have some regression. And he's on the bump again today, and it turns out he had been tipping his pitches the last few starts. He's given up at least two plus earned runs in each of his last three appearances. and then the bullpen. He told me, he goes, this is one of the worst bullpens. He goes, they're going to continue to have problems. And sure enough, it's been a horrific couple weeks. And they continue to blow games late like they did against Philadelphia in the last series. Also, he's not confident Nick Pavetta either. He pitched well in the month of May, but his fastball velocity, he noted, is down. He isn't lasting very long in the games, and he's only pitching, get this, on four days rest. You've got to chart things. So this game should have no problem seeing nine to ten runs tonight. This is one of these where you love. It might be about a fifth, sixth inning. You can turn it off and go to another game. You don't have to watch the Angels anymore. Over seven and a half runs, minus 115 in the L.A. Angels-Boston Red Sox game.”
5-2 — Angels beat the Red Sox 5-2, ending a 14-game losing streak (ESPN box score); combined 7 runs stays under 7.5, so the Over 7.5 loses.
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Jack is minus 155 versus Ramazan. Thoughts on this one, Lee? I just call him Jack Della. So Jack Della is really impressive. He's from Australia. Not too many fighters from Australia, but the ones that train in his camp, almost all of them are fighting either in this card or they've fought on the last or the next card. So they're all training together. It's a tight-knit training camp, and this guy could be a superstar. I think he's that good. He's only 25. He's fighting a guy that's 35 on the downside of his career. Well, there never really was much of a career. Della Medina, what he does is he fights on the balls of his feet. He can fight. He can fight orthodox and also southpaw. He has a really strong jab. His power getting better by the fight. He just has a lot of ways that he can end the fight here. He's fighting a guy in a meep that really only has a chance to win if he can take Jack Della down. And I don't think it's going to happen, if not any, maybe at most once or twice. And he only has a 29% rate there of taking his opponent down, does Amiv. And he doesn't finish guys out when he gets them down. That's a problem, too. So even if Jack Dele gets taken down, I think he'll find his way back to his feet. He'll piece up Amiv here, who was never much of anything. Usually these guys from Dagestan are really good. But they've had like a tough run here. Usually you didn't want to face any guys from that region. But over the last six months, they have not fared as well here. We're going with Jack Della, who I think is going to be a future star here. Another blowout special. He's minus 155 here over the Dagestani fighter.”
Jack Della Maddalena defeated Ramazan Emeev by first-round TKO (punches) at 2:32 at UFC 275 (Wikipedia event page); Della Maddalena ML wins. (Della Maddalena def. Emeev, TKO (punches), round 1, 2:32)
“BetOnline line for this one The Lightning money line minus 125 versus the Rangers Give it to us Lee Break it down for us So I think the series was over when New York failed to pull one out in Tampa The Rangers have been really good at home this postseason, but when the Lightning just turned it on after game two, I think they took the wind out of the Rangers' sails here. We talk about the other day, Bazalewski, this goalie, how good he is. I think he's the best in the world, and it's not even close. And when he's on top of his game, I mean, look what he did to the Panthers. Three goals in four games. Up front, Hedman and Stamkos are playing like the complete opposite of the players we saw in games one and two. This is also the first time that the Rangers had to deal with injuries this postseason. And Dylan Strome and a couple of their young forwards are out for this game. I just think Tampa is going to continue to ride that momentum and that experience. I think they win this game here. 4-2 here. We're going with a level 2 lock. Tampa Bay Lightning here. Money line. Minus 125 over the New York Rangers.”
3-1 — Lightning beat the Rangers 3-1, going up 3-2 in the Eastern Conference Final (ESPN box score); Lightning ML wins.
“BetOnline.net line for this one. the Cubs minus 125 versus the Orioles with the take back being plus 115. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So there's a couple of things going on with this, Kim. The first thing, Jordan Lyles, the Orioles pitcher tonight. Most people don't even know who the guy is. But if you've been watching and paying attention to baseball, been lighted out by his standards at home this season. Has a 293 ERA in Camden yards, which is nearly half his career average. And I think I know what his game plan is now. Remember, Camden Yards, a lot of people don't realize it. They moved their left field ball up. They made it higher, and they moved it back this offseason. And it has dramatically reduced the number of homers allowed there. Well, Lyles is enjoying it because he's throwing his fastball less and his sinker more. He's inducing more ground balls. And when he gives up a fly ball, it's going out of the park a lot less this year. In fact, he's given up a ton of less hits this year, but he's also allowed not one home run, not one at home this season. The other notable aspect of this game is Marcus Stroman. He's struggling on and off the field, 532 ERA, and the team only has two wins in his nine starts this year, you would think that he would stay off social media and focus on fixing his game. But instead, he got into some Twitter arguments with Yankees fans over the weekend about how he was much better than Garrett Cole. Are you kidding me? I just don't think this guy's head is in the game right now. So I think he's hurting the Cubs, and maybe they can, you know, move him at the deadline for a prospect. But for right now, he's not a pitcher I want to back. Wrong team favorite, Baltimore Orioles at home, money line over the Cubbies.”
3-2 — This June 8 game was rained out and replayed as a makeup on August 18, 2022; the Cubs won that makeup game 3-2 at Camden Yards (ESPN box score), so Orioles ML loses.
“Up next, blowout special. USFL action. How about the Philadelphia Stars and the Pittsburgh Maulers? The Stars, 5-3. Pittsburgh, not so much. 1-7. BetOnline.net line for this one. The Stars minus 8.5 versus the Maulers. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so a lot of people don't know this name. Case Koukis. Case Koukis is now the starting quarterback for the Philadelphia Stars. Here's a guy that was not in one or two, was in four NFL camps, and most of the time didn't last more than a couple weeks. He was in the same camp, in fact, with Paxton Lynch. Paxton Lynch, he went up against him last week and absolutely out-dueled him. Here's a guy that, believe it or not, was the third quarterback drafted by the Philadelphia Stars. So the Philadelphia stars thought that Brian Scott from Occidental was going to be their guy, took him in the first year round. That didn't work out. They also took KJ Costello from Mississippi state. He didn't pan out. So case Cook is taking control. The hottest quarterback in the USFL In fact they scored the most points and now they facing the Pittsburgh Maulers who have gotten mauled this year with a 1 record The Maulers they right now have given up the most points in the USFL and they, in fact, have only scored half of what the Philadelphia Stars have scored. So I think the last week we might see teams rest their players a little bit. So next week, we might take off. We might only have one play for our clients, but this is one of my big plays this weekend. We're going with the Philadelphia Stars, who are 5-3, already in the playoffs. They want to keep rolling. They'll end up facing, it looks like, the Birmingham Stallions to start the playoffs. I like what this kid Cookus has done. He just has the confidence of his team. Comes from northern Arizona. Just everything's clicking. You've got to go with a hot quarterback here. We're going to lay the 8.5 points. fill it up your stars over the pittsburgh maulers on sunday afternoon”
17-16 — Philadelphia Stars beat the Pittsburgh Maulers 17-16 on June 12, 2022 (Wikipedia 2022 USFL season results); winning by only 1 point, Stars -8.5 does not cover.
“We've got the Cleveland Guardians versus the Texas Rangers. still haven't got used to saying that Guardians name, but here we are. Cleveland Guardians, they're 25 and 26. The Rangers, not too bad for them. 26 and 29, it's the team that can. They're trying to keep on trucking. BetOnline.net line for this one. The Guardians, minus 155 versus the Rangers. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, when I type it out, when I send out emails to my clients, I literally still have time or more typing Cleveland Indians. It's going to take me a long time. So, you know, we talked about it a couple weeks ago, the amount of doubleheaders throughout the major league baseball season really provides a ton of handicapping opportunities. We talked about data and when you get data, like, you know, what we seeing now and and we noticed now that bullpens they can get worn out And then when they have to play a doubleheader the day before are you kidding me That's where you have an advantage. It's like playing blackjack. You know, when you've got 11 and the dealer's on six, you're going to double down. Well, there are not many teams that have better bullpen advantages in this situation than the Cleveland Guardians, not the Indians. Cleveland and Texas played a doubleheader yesterday. Texas bullpen had to pitch six innings in one day because of the nine-inning doubleheader setup now. Well, not many teams have as much of a bullpen advantage after a doubleheader this season as Cleveland does. Not only do the Guardians have the third-best bullpen year in baseball, but they also have the fewest innings pitched by relievers by far at 169 innings. Even more importantly, their ace, Shane Bieber, is on the mound for this one in a rubber match. I think this guy continues to be one of the most underrated pitchers in all of baseball. Finally healthy again. And aside from one bad start against Toronto a couple weeks ago, he has been absolutely light out yet again this year. His counterpart, Dane Dunning, starts for Texas. And the Rangers have lost all five of his road starts so far this season. I think you're going to see another outstanding show here from Bieber. And the Guardians are going to run away with this one. I'm going to take a stab at the score. I'm going to say 7-1 final. Cleveland Guardians, money line, minus 155. Level unload on this one, three lock.”
4-0 — Guardians shut out the Rangers 4-0 at Progressive Field (ESPN box score); Guardians ML wins.
“betonline.net line for this one the Dodgers money line minus 125 versus the White Sox with the take back being plus 110 break this one down for us Lee hint hint this is gonna be a client play hint hint nice This is going to be a client play. Okay. I like that. I think the line's off. Primary reason is Michael Kulpich, pitcher here for the White Sox, put up some all-star numbers this season. He's transitioned from being in the bullpen to a full-time starter, throwing his fastball as fast as just about any other starter in the majors. He's done a really good job of also limiting, we talk about this all the time, hard contact. So he ran into big problems in Toronto the other day for one reason, pitching on 10 days rest. Major League Baseball managers nowadays strongly prefer to give their starters five days of rest between appearances, especially when a guy is moving from a reliever spot to the rotation. Coppett has pitched so well and so deep into games recently that they gave him this extra rest and it just flat out didn work He gave up almost half of his earned runs in 2022 in one game That's not going to happen again. This guy is a power pitcher, and the Dodgers actually, believe it or not, ranked 21st in Major League Baseball against fastballs, which is shocking this season. The White Sox, everyone would think, oh, top 10, top 12, top 15. But 21st, the White Sox get to face Mitch White, who is now transitioning into the rotation as well due to injuries. And he's just not lasting long in the games at all. Just 11 combined innings as a starter this year. And he's backed up by a bullpen that has pitched 14 innings in the last three games. I think the wrong team is favored here. The White Sox will start their homestand off right here. Wrong team favored. Chicago White Sox money line over the Dodgers.”
4-0 — White Sox shut out the Dodgers 4-0 behind Michael Kopech (ESPN box score); White Sox ML wins.
“betonline.net line for this one. We're going to look at the mean machine, Garcia, who's 12-4. It's minus 165 against Masate. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so I think the UFC is trying to fill out the card. Remember, not here in the States. So sometimes, you know, they're trying to, you know, be fair and give some guys shot all around the country. And this guy fought in the Contender Series. Masate did, and he won. But I didn't think he fought a very high-level guy in that fight. So they ended up signing him. The bars set a little bit lower sometimes. for guys. It's like being a reliever, a left-handed reliever. You don't have to throw sometimes 89, 90 miles an hour. You don't have to throw 94, 95 like the rest of the guys. So they're looking, they want to build that brand, you know, all around the world. They want to have people and get eyes from different countries, people to watch these fights. And I think they're stretching a little bit here. So I just don't think he's at that level. And what's interesting about this fight here is not only will it be his first fight ever you you come out to a crowd of 18 to 20,000 it's a lot different than going on the contender series where it's taped in 75 to 100 people or in the apex it's I think you know just you see guys just don't fight their fights and it takes them sometimes a couple fights you know to feel comfortable in the UFC and you're fighting a He's a higher level fighter. Now, Garcia is a guy that likes to just throw punches. He likes to let it rip with his hands and so does Masate Both these guys this is crazy And all their wins both of them never a submission No submissions at all So we know how the fight's going to take place. I think Garcia, you know, just a little bit stronger, throwing punches. And he has the experience. You know, here's a guy that, yeah, he's taken a couple losses, but he's been doing it. And I don't think people realize how much he's improved. So he ended up starting his first time. He ended up fighting all the way back to the beginning, February, 2020, lost to Luis Pena. He had four bouts canceled for various reasons. He won over Charlie R. Tavares in October of last year. But I think in the two years, people just don't realize how much this guy's gotten better here. We know how the fight's going to take place. We don't have to worry about submissions either way. We got the guy with the better hands. the better leather. I think he lets it rip here. So we're going to go with a blowout special. Steven, mean machine Garcia, gets the win at UFC 275. It's one of these fights that's going to be on the prelims. It's not the early prelim. Prelims start at 8 o'clock Eastern. So get it now before this line ends up”
Hayisaer Maheshate knocked out Steve Garcia via first-round KO (punch) at 1:14 at UFC 275 (Wikipedia event page); Garcia ML loses. (Maheshate def. Garcia, KO (punch), round 1, 1:14)
“BetOnline line for this one We going to roll Lightning versus Rangers under 5 goals minus 125 Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so both of these goalies are on their game right now. Not only that, but they're the two best goalies in the NHL. It's not even close. So when you look at these two guys, 1 and 2, since Game 3 of the Rangers series against Carolina. Schurz, again, their goalie, he's faced 39 shots on goal per game, which is by far the most among remaining playoff teams. And he's allowed just two goals per game with a 6-2 record. Vascovsky, I mean, what do you have to say? He's either the best or maybe the best of all time here. So after a high-scoring game one, I think the last two games are closer to what you're going to see the rest of the series. Both teams can capitalize on scoring chances, but I really think New York is going to continue to struggle offensively. Remember, they faced a third-string goalie and then a second-string goalie in the first two rounds of the postseason. So Vasilevsky here is a big step up in competition form. If Tampa Bay can just limit the penalties in this one, I think we're going to see a 2-1 or a 3-2 game again. So don't be fooled by all the offensive firepower. This series is all about the goalies. The under is the play here. Level one lock here for Tuesday. Under 5.5, minus 125, Tampa Bay Lightning, New York Rangers game tonight.”
4-1 — Lightning beat the Rangers 4-1 in Tampa (ESPN box score); combined 5 goals stays under 5.5.
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Angels minus 128 versus the Red Sox with the take back being plus 108. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so the Red Sox are looking for the fifth consecutive win while the Angels have lost 11 straight. And boy, did they find another way to lose. We thought there was going to be some regression. There was regression, and then there's an absolute way to blow a game. The Angels, it looked like they had the Phillies. They're holding a 6-2 lead going to the bottom of the eighth. But then the home team scores four runs, and then they added three more in the ninth. They get a 9-7 win closer. Raycello Iglesias, 1-4. He takes the loss. He allows three runs on three hits. And also Patrick Sandoval started the game but lasted only four and two-thirds inning. So this is a team here, they're just flying. They're just not getting any hitting here. Now they've got to face Michael Walker. He's going to start for the ninth time for the Red Sox here. This 30-year-old right-hander, 243 ERA. here, over 40 and two-thirds innings of work here. Waka, he's already faced the Angels this year. What did he do in that outing? He got the win, allowing no runs on three hits, and five and two-thirds innings pitched. And then Noah Sindergaard, he's going to be pitching for the Angels here. 29-year-old right-hander looking to bounce back here after a horrible start against the Yankees, and that game pitched only two and a third innings, gave up five runs here, walking some guys in his last start, which is unusual here, and he's already pitched against the Red Sox this year, gave up three runs on eight hits here, only three Ks in seven innings, so I'm going to take the team that just continues to find ways to hit and score and win games, and that's the Red Sox of late here. And I just don't bet on the do-to-win theory here. I'm going to take the wrong team favorite, Boston Red Sox. They continue to give the Angels just add on to that misery here. Red Sox here, wrong team favorite over the L.A. Angels.”
1-0 — Red Sox beat the Angels 1-0 behind a Michael Wacha shutout (ESPN box score); Red Sox ML wins.
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Padres minus 117 versus the Mets with the take back plus 107. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, when I first looked at this line, it opened around minus 110. I thought the Padres would be the right side. But the more I looked into the situational advantage here I think it lies with New York I decided that they were the play to make The Padres are back to what we expected from them last year, and they're playing well. But right now, they just flew back on a cross-country flight after seven straight games against playoff contenders St. Louis and Milwaukee. The Mets, on the other hand, just split a series against the Dodgers in L.A. and got to rest their bullpen quite a bit after a blowout win on Saturday. So now they've been sitting in San Diego waiting on the Padres to come back home. So sometimes in the schedule, there lies this situational advantage, and it does certainly, it's with the Mets here. Carlos Carrasco has stepped up very nicely as the Mets' ace with DeGrom and Scherzer out. What is funny about him is that in 217 career starts as a pitcher, never faced the Padres, not even once. I think that this will work in his favor, if anything. The Padres, despite their offensive success this year, have absolutely struggled against righties and actually ranked, get this, 29th in Major League Baseball in runs per game at home. Don't be surprised if Carrasco takes another gem here into the seventh or eighth inning here, which you don't see often in Major League Baseball. Starters going that deep into a game. But I think the wrong team is favored. Wrong team favored. Number two, New York Mets here over the Slam Diego Padres.”
11-5 — Mets beat the Padres 11-5, with Escobar hitting for the cycle (ESPN box score); Mets ML wins.
“Blowout special, college baseball. Been watching a lot of college baseball lately. Got the regionals going on right now. How about this? How about Stanford versus your Texas State Bobcats? This is a regionals winner's take all game. BetOnline.net line for this one. Stanford minus 220 versus the Bobcats. Break this one down for us, Lee. Well, let me tell you something. There's some really good action going on. In fact, on Monday, 10 games. So what has to happen to get a Monday game, except for in the Miami regional, which was borrowed by Raid? You have to have one of the teams that is in the losers bracket has to come out of the losers bracket and force a an extra game. And what do we have here We have a total of I think it nine games nine games going on today So should be some really good baseball action Don get this too often on a Monday but this is the case here There Tennessee in my opinion, almost everyone else. Tennessee is loaded. I mean, one of the best college teams I've seen in a long time, but a lot of really good solid teams in Texas state is one of my former alma mater is doing a really good job this year. I thought they should have gotten a regional for some reason didn't get one they sent them to play Stanford the overall number two seed now Stanford was upset by Texas State in the second game the winner's bracket Texas State was hitting some bombs uh they caught Stanford's ace but problem with Texas State is after you get through those top three starters just don't have much else so Stanford has a lot of depth pitching depth one through nine really good offense I've been watching this week didn't didn't watch them much during the season, but every single player, it seems like, on their team can hit, can run. They run the bases really well. They steal, take the extra base, and a really good fielding team. So they do everything. They have that depth. Unless Texas State can get like five or six innings out of their starter, which I don't think they can, they're in real trouble here. So nice run by Texas State. Enjoyed it, but Stanford, just too much. They found their footing last night and beat Texas State. Once it got to 5-4, Texas State closed the gap. Stanford stretched their legs and ended up winning 8-4. So I like Stanford here. I don't normally lay over 200 in any game, but minus 220, it's the right side here. Stanford Cardinal here, blowout special over the Texas State Bobcats.”
4-3 — Stanford beat Texas State 4-3 in the Stanford Regional championship (ESPN college baseball scoreboard); Stanford ML wins.
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Tampa Bay Lightning money line, minus 125 versus the Rangers. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yes, I was on the Rangers the other night, and with good reason, especially because Tampa Bay had nine days off before game one. But now they're back into it. they're coming off of a loss. And why does that matter? Well, Andre Vasilevsky, the goalie for the Tampa Bay Lightning, still has not lost consecutive playoff starts since April of 2019. If you're counting, that's 17-0 in the last 17 playoff games after a loss. And in that span, he has five shutouts and just say 1.47 goals against per average in a 942 save percentage. Sometimes these betting trends, you know, can be flimsy and won't mean much, but you just can't ignore those numbers. And I don't think their star Kukurov or even Hedman had good games the other night, and those are Tampa's two big guns right now. I just think they're too good of players and too proud to go down 0-2 in this series. I think this one might be close to the end, but we're going to go with a guy who I think is maybe, arguably, the best goalie of all time tonight. He gets it done 2-1 or 3-1 for the Bolts here. Tampa Bay Lightning, money line minus 125, blowout special over the New York Rangers.”
NYR 3, TB 2 — Rangers beat Lightning 3-2 in Eastern Conference Final Game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead; Lightning moneyline busts (ESPN).
“Turn our attention to Major League Baseball. How about the Houston Astros and the Kansas City Royals? The Astros pretty quietly are out there kicking backside, man. They're kicking some tail at 33 and 18. The Royals, not so much, 16 and 33 on the season. BetOnline.net line for this one. The Astros money line, minus 124 versus Royals. Thoughts on this one, Lee? The Astros are the hottest team in baseball. No one's talking about it. They started the season 6-9. Since then, 27-9. And they have the second-best ERA in the American League. Their bullpen ranks first in the league. And they lead the league offensively in OPS on the road. And they've given up four or fewer runs in 10 of the last 13 games. I don't see that too often in baseball. And they're facing a Royals team that still can't hit. Well, we know the Kansas City Chiefs defense, you don't hear too many pops, and you're not hearing too many large cracks from the bats from the Royals' offense here. Their offense ranks 26th in runs per game in Major League Baseball and that drops to 29th when they playing at home So no home field advantage for them They lost 11 in the last 13 They've scored three or fewer runs here in each of the last four games. And I just don't see how Kansas City can keep up with Houston here. Yeah, Brady Singer has posted some nice, strong numbers as a Royals starting pitcher, 250 ERA in his first six appearances. But after that, he's 4-8 in his career if you do a deep dive into the numbers against teams with winning records. And he's still giving up hard hits on 44% of his pitches that batters make contact with. Even Singer is due for some regression here. That's why I look at hard hit balls and the percentage there. That usually is a more telling story than just looking at someone's record at ERA. I think the Royals are going to be singing some more royal blues tonight. I'm going with the Houston Astros money line over the Kansas City Royals here.”
HOU 10, KC 3 — Astros beat Royals 10-3 behind home runs from Alvarez, Diaz and Maldonado; Houston moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“betonline.net line for this one el jefe money line minus 175 versus zuma guloff thoughts on this one okay so i watched a lot of these fights on ufc fight pass in the background always looking for up-and-comers and uh on fight pass i mean it was a couple years ago it actually was right before the pandemic spotted this guy zuma guloff i'm like you know what this guy's going to be in the ufc and against certain opponents well we're going to take him so i took him against roland pava and the first fight he fought in the UFC, I think he got a really bad decision. I think the fight was scored poorly Came back he had another loss I like you know what now the time He beat Jerome Rivera I backed him there I like okay this is where his ceiling is Then they put him against Manel Cape and he got destroyed by punches in the first round. They stopped the fight. Now he's fighting a similar fighter, an up-and-comer, very similar to Cape and Jeff Molina. Jeff Molina is a kid, I think he's dangerous. I mean, he can beat you a lot of different ways here. Currently ranked a bunch of different rankings, anywhere from like 15th to 18th in the flyweight division here. I think he's on the way up here, has some nice strong victories. Yeah, this is his third fight in the UFC. He's won the first two, but I just think he has too many tools in the toolbox here for Zuma Gulov. Really, the only way that Zuma Gulov can win this fight is by taking it to the ground, I think Molina can wrestle well enough here, can get back up if he gets taken down here. Probably a second or third round stoppage in this fight here for El Jefe. I think he gets the job done. I think the line is short. This line should be over minus 200 here, and you're sitting here with a nice, strong line here. I'm going to take El Jefe, Jeff Molina over Zaguzumagulov here.”
Jeff Molina beat Zhalgas Zhumagulov by split decision (28-29, 29-28, 30-27) at UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik; Molina moneyline cashes (Wikipedia fight results). (Molina won by split decision)
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Braves money line, minus 145 versus the Rockies. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so one of the better gambling advantages you're going to find this year is fading teams off doubleheaders. After the COVID years, Major League Baseball went back to the nine-inning doubleheaders instead of the seven-inning games. And this is the last thing that the Rockies, who have the worst bullpen by a long ways in the Major League Baseball, want to hear about right now. Not only did Colorado have a doubleheader with Miami yesterday, and I watched both games, but they also went into extra innings in the second game. They lost the first game 14-1. They pitched in the ninth inning because their bullpen was taxed a position player. They gave up a combined in the two games 26 runs. That leaves the Rockies bullpen with a 520 ERA which is a full 0 worse than the next bullpen in Major League Baseball in the Cincinnati Reds Fatigue on top of an already poor pitching group is going to be a bad sign here Atlanta has no time to rest now that the Mets here are starting to run away with the division. And I think they'll get things on track here in game one of this series. Blowout special, Atlanta Braves money line here over the Colorado Rockies.”
ATL 13, COL 6 — Braves beat Rockies 13-6 at Coors Field; Atlanta moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Cardinals' money line, minus 105 versus the Cubs. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, St. Louis Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, especially thanks to Paul Goldschmidt, former Texas State alum, and Nolan Oriando. So in the month of May alone, Goldschmidt hit .404, 10 home runs, and an OPS at 1.288. He led the majors in almost every sortable statistic individually. And it feels like this Cardinals team finally has the superstar hitters that could propel them into the National League contention here. And I just think they keep it going tonight. This is one of the biggest rivalries in sports between Chicago, the Cubs, and St. Louis. And you already know guys like Goldschmidt, Ariando, and Molina are going to be ready to go here. especially because this is probably the last time we're going to see Yadier Molina and also another guy like Adam Wainwright play this rivalry. The other reason is Chicago is going to be going with a bullpen game here. Kagan Thompson, who has made five appearances in just three starts this season, is going to be on the mound. The problem with that is the Cubs have already used 15 innings from their bullpen in the last three games against Milwaukee. You can't expect to draw your starter out or get meaningful innings from each reliever. I just think it's going to be a big problem here against this lineup of St. Louis. I think the Cardinals run away with this one here. Level two lock, St. Louis Cardinals, money line, minus 105 over the hapless Chicago Cubs.”
CHC 7, STL 5 — Cubs beat Cardinals 7-5 behind Frank Schwindel's multi-hit game; Cardinals moneyline busts (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Warriors minus three and a half versus Celtics. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, I mean, at one point, probably middle of the season, Celtics didn't even look like a team capable of making it, you know, out of the playoffs, even the first round. But now they're right there, just four games away from winning it all here. Going to have to go up against the Splash Brothers, and the Splash Brothers had a lot of help. And, I mean, it's not just those two guys. Jordan Poole's come out of nowhere. Wiggins turned out, does a little bit more than just shoot the rock. He can defend, moves the ball around well also. But there's also some bad blood here. Remember, Mark is smart. He was the guy that was involved in getting Curry hurt. So they had that – they were scrambling on a play for the ball, and I think it was in mid-March, and Steph Curry suffered an injury that kept him out for an entire month. So I think the series is going to get a little bit testy. I think the problem here for Boston in game one is they've got to figure out who they're facing. They were facing in the heat a team that really had one player. I mean, one real good player. Now they got to guard four or five guys at once and I think it going to be tough for them to figure out the matchups here I think they still not a hundred percent so whereas Tampa Bay that layoff really hurt them the lightning last night I think Golden State's going to be ready to go I think the rest will do them well Boston's got to travel cross country here they were banged up they were playing a team and a physical team so different type of style here also first time on the big stage for all these guys. Golden State, most of these guys have been here. So, I just think Clay Thompson could have a big finals here. Draymond Green wants to put a little exclamation point on him getting into the Hall of Fame here. Jordan Poole, he didn't play real well last round. I think he might turn it on. Even Gary Payton Jr. is going to be coming back for this year. So, I think the line's short in the first game here. Level three lock game one golden state warriors over the boston celtics that's what i'm talking about you got me clapping man you got me clapping talking about a level three lock right there nba finals game one so excited about it man been building up all week waiting to the to this day to see this series get underway i think it's going to be a dog fight i think it's going to go six or seven games but uh you can only take one game at a time and that is tonight and uh as you have them right now a level three lock warriors minus three and a half versus the boston celtics”
BOS 120, GS 108 — Celtics beat Warriors 120-108 in NBA Finals Game 1 behind a huge fourth quarter; Golden State lost outright, well short of -3.5 (ESPN).
“WTF number one, little NHL Eastern Conference finals action. Tampa Bay Lightning, New York Rangers. This is game one. The Tampa Bay Lightning, minus 135 versus the Rangers with the take back being plus 115. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so I really thought that Carolina was going to get the job done, but what an effort by the Rangers. Great defense, great goaltending, and timely offense. I mean, they were very opportunistic. So sometimes when you go against a team, hey, you go with them in the next round in the first game, and this is the case. As easy as Tampa Bay Lightning made it here look in round two against the Panthers when they swept them, I think this game could be a tough one for them on the road. New York has more regular season wins, so that's hence why they have home ice here. And the Lightning haven't played a game in nine days. For a team that is used to playing a ton of competitive hockey in May and June, I just think that this is a huge layoff between games, nine days, and it might take them a period or two to get adjusted here. The Rangers have been just as good at home as anyone in the league, and they're heating up right now. The wrong team is favored here, New York Rangers. Money line here over the Tampa Bay Lightning.”
NYR 6, TB 2 — Rangers beat Lightning 6-2 in Eastern Conference Final Game 1 (Filip Chytil scored twice); Rangers moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. and the Twins minus 120 versus the Tigers with the take back being plus 110. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Tariq Skouval is, I think, the most improved player in Major League Baseball this season. Most people haven't even heard of him because people just don't follow the Detroit Tigers. And he's now a legitimate ace for them. He's given up just two home runs and 52 innings pitched. Trust me, you look at statistics. You see guys from 40, 50 innings giving up 5, 8, 10, 12 homers. That is a monumental feat. He also has cut his career ERA in half down to .244. Batting average against just .211 at home. This is actually the third of four games in the series versus Minnesota. And I think you're starting to see the Tigers come around here offensively. Wrong team favorite. number two Detroit Tigers money line plus 110 over the Minnesota Twins”
DET 5, MIN 0 — Tigers shut out the Twins 5-0 behind Tarik Skubal's seven scoreless innings; Detroit moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for the series we're talking here. Golden State minus 150 versus Celtics with the take back being plus 130. Break this one down for us, Lee. So would you agree with me, Q, that this is probably the first year that the public would say Eastern Conference as far as as a whole or at least the top eight teams stronger than the Western Conference? Yeah, you know what? I think I think I would give the East a nod this year for sure. No doubt about it. But for the first time in probably a decade, right? Yeah. Yes. A very long time for sure. No doubt. Okay. So over the last 10 years, you know, people love the Western Conference. They love the style of play. But you can look this up. Half of the last 10 winners of the NBA championship, Eastern Conference teams. So we've talked about it a lot. Defense. Boston was number one NBA. Golden State, number two. Miami Heat was three. Dallas, I think, actually was 10. So defense still in almost every single sports wins championships. So, yeah, Golden State, they've got the home court advantage. So did the Miami Heat. But Boston number one defense, in fact, every single defender, all five of their starters receive votes for the all-defensive team. So I think they give Miami problems. And I know from playing not at a high level, you play at a higher level, your son plays at even higher level playing college. But I know in my mind, the thing that bothers me the most is not if someone's quick, I can still shoot over them. It someone with height When you have height and you athletic it makes it tough You get into the lane or even if you trying to shoot a three and you 6 6 and someone 6 6 they block the shot, you got to change your shot. I think you're going to see a lot of it. They can switch off every single defender, even their center, Horford, Williams. These guys can guard guards and shooting guards and small forwards. So I think that's a big plus here. They've proven They can win on the road here all postseason here. I'm going to take the Boston Celtics. It pains me because I'm a Heat fan. I'm taking the Celtics here plus 130 in the championship series over the Golden State Warriors.”
GS 4, BOS 2 — Golden State won the 2022 NBA Finals over Boston 4-2; Celtics-to-win-the-Finals futures bet busts (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Blue Jays, minus 175 versus the White Sox with a take back of plus 155. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, really good matchup as far as pitching is concerned. Lucas Galata, who really good pitcher. I mean, you look at his record here in his starts, 3-4, in his seven starts. He does have a 3-1 record, but 3-4, the seven starts, you're thinking, hey, you know, he's good, but maybe not great. He just had some bad luck, hasn't had support. Well, I think that this Chicago White Sox team is finally starting to figure it out here. They've got some bats just like Toronto does. Obviously, Kevin Gossman is going to pitch for Toronto. He's their ace. But Toronto, I rarely go against teams in winning streaks, but they own a five-game winning streak. They're just 14-8 at home. It's not like they're, you know, 14-4. And with two similar lineups, you've got two really good pitchers here going against each other. But there is one thing that really leads me to go with the White Sox. Looking at this Toronto team, well, the last two games they've had to pitch and go really deep into their bullpen. And six guys out of the bullpen have pitched each of the last two days. Yeah, they won 6-5 and 11-10, but I think they burned their bullpen here. I think there's a game that could go either way here. Bet a little, win a whole lot. Chicago White Sox, they finally, they've been hovering around 500. They get above 500 with a win here. Like I said, for every $100 you wager, you win 150 if they get the W.”
TOR 6, CHW 5 — Blue Jays beat White Sox 6-5 on a pair of Alejandro Kirk two-run homers; White Sox moneyline busts (ESPN).
“That's the wrong team. Favorite still paying attention to Major League Baseball. How about the Yankees and the Angels? The Yankees, betonline.net line for this one. The Yankees minus 125 versus the Angels with the take back being plus 115. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so the Yankees had an incredible run. I mean, they're running away with division right now. But the lineup right now, this is like a AAA lineup. I mean, they got guys. They're calling up guys, picking up guys from other teams, playing a lot of backups. They've had some injuries here. Seems to happen to this Yankees team. They just got guys that are fragile. Now they going to go up against North Syndergaard pitching really well this year 4 with a 3 ADRA Okay He going to go up against lefty Jordan Montgomery 0 3 ERA here And Noah Syndergaard, I mean, what a really good pickup this guy was. So last outing, he looked really good. He's had sharp on eight innings. And their bullpen is the one that's let them down. But I think Syndergaard is going to go deep into this game here because he's facing this JV lineup here. Missed almost all of 2021, that shoulder injury. Really good under-the-radar free agent acquisition here. Otani hit two home runs yesterday. The lineup is hitting here. They're loaded top to bottom here. And just think that this Yankees team off playing Tampa Bay, you know, may not have the focus. So, you know, they get up for playing that game. And whenever they're playing Tampa Bay, that's been kind of their rival the last couple years in Tampa. So both teams are traveling. Sometimes that first game at home, you know, team isn't settled in. You know, guys are just getting back from a road trip. They go to the ballpark, not locked in here. So we're going to go with a wrong team favored, L.A. Angels tonight in the Big Apple. They get the upset here against the New York Yankees.”
NYY 9, LAA 1 — Yankees beat Angels 9-1; Angels moneyline busts (ESPN).
“the bandits minus five and a half versus the gamblers thoughts on this one lee okay just because a lot of people are not going to these games doesn't mean you can't bet them and win we've actually won six of the seven weeks of the usfl action so it pays the same as whether you're betting an nba game seven or you're betting a baseball or a hockey playoff game so uh i'm going to take advantage of we hit on a total yesterday that went flying over i'm sorry not yesterday, Sunday, flying over the total. We gave out a huge max wager release there to my client, and I think I found something. I wouldn't call it a total mistake, but I think the line is off. So you have two teams that are pretty much out of it. They played seven of the ten games of the regular season in the USFL. The Tampa Bay Bandits are sitting at three and four, not going to the playoffs. Houston Gamblers, one and six, not going to the playoffs. When we see a line at minus five in any type of professional football, not college, professional football, what it says is the odds maker is usually looking at the two teams and saying, oh, okay, one team was a little bit better. They think Tampa Bay is a little bit better. And a lot of times then they add the home field to it. But in this case, there's no home field advantage. Trust me, Tampa Bay is not five and a half points better than Houston. You should just have some bad luck. They could have closed out their game this weekend. They just made a couple mistakes at the end. So I think this is one of those games that comes down to the wire. This game might even go here to overtime. If you have a game that comes down to the wire, goes down to overtime, and you're getting five and a half points, well, it's either usually won by a field goal either side or a touchdown. That means you've got a 75% chance pretty much of covering the spread here. So two teams, not much to play for. I think Houston on a six-game losing streak, just like the Pittsburgh Maulers covered this weekend here. I think the line's inflated. I'm taking the five-and-a-half points in the Houston Gamblers on Sunday here as a level two lock.”
TB 13, HOU 3 — Tampa Bay Bandits beat Houston Gamblers 13-3 in USFL Week 8; Bandits' 10-point margin means Gamblers +5.5 fails to cover (Wikipedia 2022 USFL season results).
“Yeah, I know it's only May, but this is a really big series here for the Toronto Blue Jays. They're two games back from Tampa and seven and a half games back from the Yankees. who have been absolutely running away with the division. Now the Yankees are in Tampa for the first time this season, after playing Baltimore 13 times already, and the Rays should put up a good fight against them down in Florida. That means Toronto, who's starting to figure things out offensively, has a chance to stay in this three-team race for the top of the AL East. This is the lone regular season, and I think it's really, you got to look at it right now. This is that important of a series here because even though it's a long regular season, when a team opens up a 10-game lead in a division this early, it's really hard to come back from. But I think Toronto has the talent to do it, especially with Alex Manoa on the mound tonight. Actually saw this kid playing in high school. He pitched a little bit. His brother was the star of the team that won a state championship. Alex pitched some, but his brother was the pitcher who pitched, if not every game, every other game. And he played mainly first base. But this is a kid from South Florida that has come in and contended for the ace position here for Toronto since he was called up. And after his last start against Cincinnati, has a 141 ERA. in his last five starts, but even more impressive is that in his career against teams with winning records, he's 7-2 with just a .227 ERA in 15 starts. I think Toronto is on the upswing, and this inconsistent Angels lineup is just going to start falling kind of to the middle of the group here. They just don't have enough support for Trout and Otani here on the back end of their lineup, and it's starting to show. I think it's going to end up similar to last night's score, somewhere around 7-2. You like games that you don't have to sweat out. This is one of them. Blowout special, Toronto Blue Jays. Money line, minus 117 over the LA Angels.”
TOR 4, LAA 3 — Blue Jays beat Angels 4-3; moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“Yeah, if there's one consistent here narrative in this series so far, it's that the inconsistency late in the games. After Colorado blew the lead in the series clincher the other night, they have now been, there's been 14 goals in the third period and beyond in the first five games of this matchup so far. I don't see it stopping here. Both goaltenders have now let in some awful goals, and I'm not talking about one or two. They've given up a combined six or seven, what I think is highly questionable goals here. Colorado is still getting their goals in. They've scored 15 goals in the last three games. But what sticks out right now is the Blues' ability to fight back. They came back in game one and almost won it in overtime They came back and won it in overtime in game five This forward group is so underrated in terms of its depth and skill in the power play I don't think many people realize here that St. Louis scored more goals than Colorado in the regular season. If you can't trust either of these goaltenders, which I can't, there is no reason to force yourself here into the money line. The blue season is on the line, and I think it's going to make for some high-paced and up-tempo just action here. I'm going to go here with something like I think we're going to see something like a 5-3, 5-4 final score. So let's go with an over 6.5, minus 115 in the St. Louis-Colorado game, which Colorado leads the series 3-2.”
COL 3, STL 2 — Avalanche beat Blues 3-2 in Game 6 of the Western Conference Second Round; combined 5 goals falls under the 6.5 total (ESPN).
“So I got to the game about 45 minutes early, game five. I wanted to see how guys were warming up, take it all in. And what did I see? It looked like half the Miami lineup was getting stretched out by trainers and strength coaches. It was painful just watching them, you know, doing some stretching and sprints up and down the court to try to get loose. I can tell you this right now. I had a bad feeling going to that game. I have an even worse feeling now. Kyle Lowry, you talk about a guy that's regressed. I mean, if you didn't know, he doesn't even look anything like the guy a couple of years ago that won the championship for Toronto Max Struge he got banged up in the game He could barely walk off the court P Tucker fighting multiple injuries Jimmy Butler, I think there's a chance we might find out that he needs some type of surgery or just absolute rest where he stays off his feet. I mean, I think his first five years in the NBA, he totaled the most minutes with LeBron James. So I think it's a cumulative effort. You know, these guys are playing 82 regular season games, five preseason games, 20, 25 postseason games. That's just a lot playing on the hardwood here. The only guy that's healthy, Bam Adebayo, looked like he was afraid to go against Horford. Horford one-on-one until late in the game here. And then you got guys, you know, like Tyler Hero, didn't even play in the last two games. Yeah, they're going to put some type of leg wrap on his groin. He's going to go, I'm sure, tonight. But he's over six points off what he was averaging in the regular season. I think Boston at home. I think right now the Sharks are circling here for a second straight day. I hate to say it. It pains me. It kills me. Boston Celtics level three lock minus the eight and a half over the Miami Heat.”
MIA 111, BOS 103 — Heat beat Celtics 111-103 in Eastern Conference Finals Game 6 (Jimmy Butler had 47 points), forcing Game 7; Boston lost outright, well short of -8.5 (ESPN).
“Okay, so this has been a home series. I mean, you can't make any qualms about backing the home team here. and Carolina might be 0-5 on the road this postseason, but 6-0 at home. They just didn't play their game at all at New York, but they've won four of the six postseason home games by at least two-plus goals. They're really good at turning defense into offense. You make a mistake, you shoot a puck, you bring too many men into the zone, they'll counterattack and get it done. And I think this is one of these cases that home team's going to hold serve here. So we're going to lay the one-and-a-half goals and take them plus 175. Bet a little, win a whole lot on those Carolina Hurricanes, who I think are going to end up playing the Tampa Bay Lightning here. So they'll take pivotal game five here. Carolina Hurricanes, minus one-and-a-half goals, plus 175 over the New York Strangers.”
CAR 3, NYR 1 — Carolina beat New York 3-1 in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Final; Hurricanes' +2 margin covers the -1.5 spread (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one we're going to roll. The White Sox and Red Sox over nine runs, minus 110. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so you look at the record and you're saying, okay, we've got a pitcher here, 3-0, Michael Walker. 1.76 ERA, and the total is 9. I mean, I don't care Dallas Keuchel. You know, he is not good at all. But, you know, it should be sitting 8, 8 1⁄2. The truth here is Michael Walker is living on borrowed time. 30 innings pitch. You usually have to have at least one-plus strikeout per inning to be considered a pretty decent pitcher. 30 and two-thirds innings, just 22 KOs. 22 strikeouts here. Also, 14 walks in those 30 innings. He's just getting lucky. Balls are getting hit right to people here. I think this is the game where he blows up. Dallas Keuchel, how bad has he been? Two and four with a 660 ERA. You talk about teams that are hitting. Boston Red Sox, I mean, before that game last night where they had to face Chicago's ace, They put up 5-12, 7-6, 8-16 runs. They just happen to face the ace here. This is a rubber game of the match here. Both teams, I think, are going to bring their bats here. So you got hitters galore. You got guys hot. Trevor Story is red hot, knocking the ball to the ballpark. Chicago, they got home run hitters throughout the lineup here. I expect Boston to put up five to six runs by themselves here. over nine. It's going to be over nine runs by five or six innings here.”
CHW 7, BOS 16 — Red Sox beat White Sox 16-7; combined 23 runs clears the Over 9 total (ESPN).
“Golden State minus seven versus the Mavs Thoughts on this one Lee Yeah you got your eye on it because you want it to be over yes I think the public I think every basketball fans you know hey it was a nice story for one game Dallas you know at home in game four plays out of their mind they hit 23 pointers but uh you know it's over we're gonna see Boston playing Golden State just you know a matter of one or two days now and and you You can get by for one game. You get hot. And Dallas did that hit in 23s. But normally this Golden State defense is really good. People, like I said, we've talked about all year, don't realize number two defense in the NBA. In fact, they've held opposing teams to 32.8% from the three-point line this entire season. So I expect them to put forth a much better effort. I think they were going through the motions here. It's going to be a gentleman's sweep here. splash brothers they're going to be the ones hitting the threes they're going to be the ones with the energy they're going to be one taking it to the to the house and the bank here easy layups over dallas which has absolutely no defense here level three lock golden state warriors over the dallas mavericks”
GS 120, DAL 110 — Warriors beat Mavericks 120-110 in WCF Game 5 to clinch the series 4-1; Golden State's +10 margin covers -7 (ESPN).
“So, let me guess. You've got to replenish the bankroll after you're shipped to White. So I'm going to try to help you here. When people go to Hawaii, you relax. You're in a good mood. Spend a little more than you normally do. So I think I found that play. And I'm going to go against one of your all-time favorites here. This is a bit of a revenge spot here for rookie starter Reed Detmers. So if you remember from last week, the Angels got swept in a series by the Rangers. He faced the Rangers in Texas. He pitched okay, but wasn't great. What was awful was the Angels' bullpen. They gave up nine runs in the eighth inning to blow the game. The Angels were the better team throughout the matchup, and they're the better team tonight. They won last night. They want to take this two-game series here. Texas is going to start Glen Otto here. He's making his 12th career start, and I think he's really due for some poor numbers. His expected ERA, and this is what I look at, not just ERA. A lot of people in the handicap look at the ERA. I look at, because you get so much data now on the computer, I look at pitchers' expected ERA. It's up to 681, which suggests he's benefiting from some really good luck so far. He's given up a ton of hard-hit baseballs. He ranks in just the 19th percentile in barrel percentage and fifth percentile in expected slugging percentage. That's not going to cut it against the Angels lineup right now. Mike Trout and Taylor Ward are having fantastic seasons Otani starting to swing better Even guys like Brandon Marsher providing some hitting depth for the Angels that really never had it I don think we see the same thing happening as the other night and I think this Angels group knows that they let one get away in Texas, and they're going to put everything they have into sealing the series victory here. Bet a little win a whole lot, L.A. Angels, minus the one-and-a-half runs, 120 here.”
TEX 7, LAA 2 — Texas beat Los Angeles 7-2 on May 25, 2022; Angels -1.5 loses outright and fails to cover.
“Okay, so last year betting the Jets, I went against them early and often, and it was a big-time moneymaker But I think finally the Jets are going to be competitive Why do I say that Well before the start of last year they lost their top two pass rushers I mean no team can overcome that Then they had injuries all season to the receivers. The receivers were in and out of the lineup. There was no cohesiveness. They had a rookie quarterback, a guy that was coming out of college, Zach Wilson. They just didn't surround him with a good enough cast to be successful. So I think the offensive line will be better. in the draft, how about this on the offense I thought they got the guy that they needed every single time it came up I had pegged three guys when their time came up to draft and sure enough they picked all three guys that I loved Garrett Wilson at receiver now they'll pair him with Corey Davis and Elijah Moore I think the top five, top six receiving core in the NFL they get the tight end from the Cincinnati Bengals starting tight end also got a backup tight end from Minnesota, Tyler Conklin. That's going to help them out. And Brees Hall, are you kidding me? I had him pegged as the number one running back coming out of college at Iowa State. I think he's going to be an all-pro, an all-rookie selection here in the first year here, so I love him. And Zach Wilson bulked up, gained 10, 15 pounds. I just think going from the first to second year, he's going to be so much better. And then on defense, they get Sauce Gardner. Their defense was a huge weakness last year. D.J. Reid from Seattle, he'll improve him. And Jermaine Johnson at the end of the first round, he slid there. I think maybe someone saw he had, you know, his arms were too short or something, but his production was great. They've got three nice pass rushers now. Put him in to rotate in with guys like Carl Lawson. They're going to be all set here. Five and a half wins. I look at their schedule. They got a bunch of teams that are right near what they do and are expected to do. So I'm going to over five and a half wins here for the New York Jets.”
The Jets finished the 2022 regular season 7-10, clearing the 5.5 win total.
“Okay, so I said the other night that this series was over without Jordan Binghamton in net for St. Louis. And I don't think we need to overthink this one. The backup, this kid Uso, he's let in four more goals in the last four playoffs starts dating back to the first-round series against Minnesota. And he has let in, in my opinion, three bad goals in this series already despite only playing two games. I thought that game for performance was the best that the Blues had left. And they still got doubled up by the score of 6-3. Once St. Louis scored to open it up, though it was all Colorado. Shot attempts were 61-29. Scoring chances were 30-9. And Colorado did almost all of it 5-5. So it's not like they were capitalizing on power plays all game. The Blues head coach, Craig Berube, is fantastic at adjusting his game plan when things aren't going right. But I don't think you can game plan for the speed and chemistry that Colorado has right now. The Avalanche have looked more comfortable at home defensively also, so has their goaltending. So this is just an unfair matchup right now without Binghamton. And I just don't think you overthink this one. Take the Avalanche to run away in game five and end this thing. Colorado Avalanche, minus one and a half goals, minus 105.”
STL 5, COL 4 — St. Louis beat Colorado 5-4 in overtime in Game 5 of the second round; Avalanche -1.5 loses outright.
“Yeah, so the Yankees, believe it or not, are not the best team in baseball so far this year. The Mets are. Either way, the World Series, I think, is going to run through New York if the season was to end today. And a big part of the Mets' success is guys like Chris Bassett. So this guy stepped up in a major way without Max Scherzer and Jacob DeGrom, who are both out with injuries right now. Bassett, 3-0, but get this, an alarming and incredible 0.51 ERA on the road so far. And his big change so far this year has been his slider. He's using it 8% more this year than he did in his rookie year. and he's getting way more swings and misses on it than ever before. The better news for him is the San Francisco Giants lineup ranked 22nd in Major League Baseball against Sliders this year. One of the best things with these computer programs is you can dive deeper into teams and you find some patterns, and there's a real pattern there. And offensively also, the Mets team just feels different too. In years past, the lineup would run out of gas by late May or early June, but they rank seventh in OPS and are 23-7 so far against right-handed pitchers. Logan Webb, the giant starter in this one, 3-0 at home, but he's given up seven runs in his last two starts in San Francisco coming into this matchup. New York has been incredible off of a loss this season, too. They have lost consecutive games just once all season so far. So that goes all the way back to mid-April after a loss. Like I said, normally like to take them. But I just think they're rolling right now here. We're going to go with the Mets here. Plus 105 here. Wrong team favorite.”
SF 13, NYM 12 — San Francisco beat New York 13-12 on May 24, 2022; Mets ML loses.
“OK, so let's sometimes, well, most of the time I don't even watch the press conferences at the end of the game. They're really worthless. but Luka Doncic said something he said listen I was terrible something affected he was terrible in three out of the four quarters and I I think he's kind of sending the message that my team hey we he he didn't hold out much hope that they were going to win the series but he he said it's on me I need to play better so I think he's going to come out and I think they're going to attack in the first quarter. Now, by halftime or the third or fourth quarter, I don't know if they continue to do that with Golden State's defense, which surprisingly we've talked about is ranked number two in the NBA. But I think for a quarter, even some teams can, you know, even if they're overmatched, can play extremely well. So I think the crowd behind them at home, if they were on the road, wouldn't look at this bet. So sometimes you got to look at a different wager to win. Last night, it was the under in the game. Didn't feel that both teams would score much over 100. I predicted like a 95-80 game. What did we get? 102-82. We're going to go with a first quarter wager that Dallas Mavericks minus one point. Not going to touch a halftime or the whole game of the total. Dallas Mavericks minus the one first quarter. Luka will lead his team. They might be leading, I think, by five to eight points. So Dallas Mavericks minus the one point here, first quarter blowout special.”
DAL 28, GSW 24 (1Q) — Dallas led Golden State 28-24 after the first quarter of WCF Game 4 (Mavericks won the game 119-109); Mavericks -1 (1Q) covers by 4.
“All right, so Calgary didn't play their game in Edmonton the other night. They were lucky, I thought, to get out of the first period scoreless. Then Edmonton finally broke the dam in the second period before running away with it. Calgary took 27 minutes of penalties in that game alone. You can't spend half of the game on the penalty kill if you want to beat this Oilers group. The more penalties these two teams take, I think, the better for Edmonton. I know the Flames want to play and avoid those penalties here and keep things at five versus five here. But I don't think they can do it. Connor McDavid is playing maybe the best hockey I've ever seen. The Oilers are finding some secondary scoring. And Calgary just doesn't have the mobility on the back end to keep up. But I do think Calgary will not be held to one goal again here. I think no way. They put up 12 goals in games one and two combined, and they actually ended up pretty even in scoring chances in game three. Their top line of Goudreau, Lindholm, and Tachik was held scoreless in that game. That's simply not going to happen again. These guys were arguably the best line in hockey in the regular season, and they just got caught up in the mess of penalties through game three. I think Calgary speeds things up here offensively, but there's just no stopping this Oilers offense right now. I think we're going to see something like a 3-3 game, maybe even going into the third period. And for that reason, we're going to see a few more goals in the third period. So you might be able to, who knows, we might have seven to start the third period. You might be able to go to bed early here, Alex. So we're going to go with a level two lock here, over six and a half goals here in the Edmonton Oilers Calgary Flames game tonight.”
EDM 5, CGY 3 — Edmonton beat Calgary 5-3 in Game 4 of the second round; combined 8 goals clears the 6.5 total.
“So here's what's crazy. The first game between these two teams, they had the total of 2-0-3. The total goes 2-25. Then they raise it up to like 206, 207. Total goes in the Boston-Miami game, 229 and 212. Three overs. The public is going to be playing an over here. I think they're going to get caught in the track. You've got injuries galore. Jason Tatum, shoulder, you know, Marcus Smart, ankle injury. You know, you can come back in on the adrenaline when you got 18, 20,000 fans. And they did everything to play the Rocky music. And both of them were two or three time war veterans as they came back on. They tried to make it like you remember the Paul Pierce thing where it like he was out of the wheelchair that he running back Someone on on Twitter when I tweeted out posted back they tweeted back a message that not quite a Willis Reed moment Thought that was good. So Miami's only, I think, real path to victory here is muck up this game. Tyler Hero has a groin injury, probably not going to be as effective. and then Jimmy Butler you know he's got an injury they don't Miami doesn't want to track me so with these so many of these key guys that are not 100% in the defenses number one Boston in the NBA Miami Heat number three they'll figure it out I think this is a game that's going to be mucked up I'm going to stay away from the total usually but I think the total the right way to go here. So Boston's favored by six. Who knows? Let's say Boston's favored by three, five, seven, eight with four or five minutes to go in the game. I don't want it decided that the free throw line, I think we're going to finally see a game that's maybe 90, 95, 90. I'm going here with the under 207 and a half total points.”
BOS 102, MIA 82 — Boston beat Miami 102-82 in ECF Game 4; combined 184 points clears well under the 207.5 total.
“yeah this series is i think over without jordan bigington as the goalie here from st louis blues he got hurt uh on a collision at the net in game three and you could just see how much it took the life out of this blues team in the building the team announced yesterday he's done for the post season and really he was the only player keeping the blues in this one until now uh he got hurt late in the first and the avalanche scored three straight goals to run away with it uh and i just don't think it's as simple as changing up the game plan to beat colorado he had a four and one record with a 172 goals against average in the first six appearances this postseason and you just can't get anything close to that from your backup goaltender in most situations colorado has started to figure this blues team out defensively and i think they've run away with game four here i think st louis is is going to be singing the blues here. Blowout special. Colorado Avalanche Moneyline minus 157 over the St. Louis Blues.”
COL 6, STL 3 — Colorado beat St. Louis 6-3 in Game 4 of the second round; Avalanche ML hits.
“this is a really interesting matchup between two offenses that surprisingly rank in the top 10 in scoring right now. You got Milwaukee actually ranks ahead of San Diego in terms of runs per game And they getting a really good matchup here Nick Martinez you remember the name at all alex from south florida yes i i knew that rang a bell yes from belen high school he was a shortstop for second baseman in high school so he pitched in the majors for a couple years for texas then he went off to japan pitched in japan for like three or four years um i've talked about him anytime he takes the mound and if you look at his games this year he really hasn't been impressive at all he did shut out the phillies in his last first but before that he got hit all over the park by the cubs and the braids and even the reds it might be a surprise too that he's facing a brewers lineup here ranks third major league baseball and ops against righties so far christian Yellich, former Florida Marlin, Miami Marlin, heating up Colton Wong, Hunter Renfro. All these guys are carrying the lineup right now against righties. The problem for Milwaukee here is Adrian Hauser, their starting pitcher, 13 of the 19 runs he's allowed this year to come in the first two innings. He has some really bad starts, and he's facing, I call it, a slam Diego Padre lineup here at home that's really going to be ready to go after a long road trip here. I think they're ready to tee off. We should see a ton of runs here in this one. We're going to go over eight runs, minus 110, and the Slam Diego Padres-Milwaukee Brewers game, level one lock.”
SD 3, MIL 2 — San Diego beat Milwaukee 3-2 in 10 innings on May 23, 2022; combined 5 runs falls well under the 8-run total.
“Yeah, Toronto Blue Jays, Cincinnati Reds. The total here is 8.5 plus 110. And the Cincinnati Reds might not be very good, but fans are actually seeing a lot of runs in their games. The Reds have the worst record in baseball, but the offense actually isn't bad at all. Ranked 19th in Major League Baseball at 4.1 runs per game. Now, more importantly, though, they're going to face a pitcher here in Henjin Rio. Henjin Rio was originally with the Dodgers. Then he ends up moving over. And now he is a guy for Toronto who they had hoped was going to be their number one guy. So they thought he was going to be the ace. It just hasn't worked out. He's made 11 career starts now at Rogers Center in Toronto. Check this out. He has a 7.76 ERA in those starts so far. That's awful for a guy's home ballpark here. It hasn't been much better this season either. He's carrying a 1350 ERA in his past five innings. And also over his 5-0 during that span, the last five home starts. here. Luckily for Toronto, they're facing Louis Castillo, who doesn't fare well in these splits either. He's made only two starts this season. It hasn't been good. 559 ERA. He's given up three runs in five innings to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. His fastball velocity is way down. His walk rate is up. And I'm wondering if the trade rumors from this offseason are getting to him. We know what Toronto's offense can do, especially at home. And I don't think Castillo is ready for a road start like this one. The Pittsburgh team, like I said, you know, that we've seen is a real bad team, but I just think here we're going to see two teams here that are going to light it up. And Blue Jays batters, I think they're going to make quick work of him, and that's going to put this game in the hands of the bullpens early reds overs 15 5 and 1 in their last 21 overall. I think we get another over here. So we going to go with the over eight and a half runs plus 110 Toronto Blue Jays Cincinnati Reds We call it a wrong team a wrong total favorite I love that The variation on the WTF wrong total favorite”
TOR 2, CIN 1 — Toronto beat Cincinnati 2-1 on May 20, 2022; combined 3 runs falls well under the 8.5 total.
“Golden State Warriors are favored by six in this one Lee yeah so in the first game Luca obviously didn't play his best 20 points in that game I think he'll play better in this game but it's a complimentary cast I just don't think they match up here with Golden State so they're gonna have to score and score a lot of points to have a chance here because their defense isn't very good and uh what we're seeing here is okay let's give luca 25 or even 30 points i don't think it's gonna be enough i talked about defense yesterday boston the number one defense in the nba who has the number two defense huge surprise the golden state warriors i am surprised and yep uh they get a lot of points in transition they put it all together in the first game and I think it continues here so I think we're going to see the Splash brothers continue on they'll go to Dallas up 2-0 I don't see how Dallas can stop them here I just don't think they have the players I don't think they have the offense or the defense that matches up with Golden State here blowout special we're going with the Golden State Warriors on Friday night.”
GSW 126, DAL 117 — Golden State beat Dallas 126-117 in WCF Game 2; Warriors -6 covers by 9.
“we're going to take ugly man Joe by stoppage here as we expect a quick takedown domination on the mat and ground and pound or maybe even a strangulation uh submission victory here uh it will be so ugly that it's going to be a thing of beauty so we're going to not play the uh fighter here just to win the fight I'm going to say he's going to finish the fight and it's plus 100 so every $100 you wager, you win $100. So I think the fight is going to be finished first, second, or if it goes to the third round, I just think that we're going to see Amadovsky just be lied flat out on the mat and get either ground and pounded or submitted. So we'll take Joseph, ugly man Joe Holmes here over Alan Amadovsky.”
At UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira (May 21, 2022), Joseph Holmes submitted Alen Amedovski via rear-naked choke in round 1; finish bet hits.
“Philadelphia Eagles last season, nine and eight second in the nfc east are you telling me the eagles are going to be better than the dallas cowboys this season what is up with this bet a little win a lot okay last year dallas i thought had everything go right they go 12 and 5 the eagles go nine and eight and when i was watching the eagles when they lost in the playoffs in the last couple games down the stretch my feeling was that Jalen Hurts was left out to dry. He just didn't have enough help, number one. And I thought their offensive and defensive lines just weren't good enough at the point of attack. So what do they do? They go out, and the draft is usually very overrated. Rarely do you see the numbers go up or down much when teams go from before the draft to after the draft. And this one didn't move much at all, but I think it should. I thought that their draft was excellent. Jordan Davis, defensive lineman, defensive tackle. I think he's going to be a future seven, eight, nine-year all pro. He's that good. He's big, strong, fast. He will anchor the middle of their line. Second round, they got Cam Juergens, really good center. I think it's going to solidify their line. I think they're going to move some things around there. He's going to find his way into the lineup. Real tough guy. And then in the third round, they get N'Kobe Dean. Are you kidding me? I mean, the rumors that he had a pec problem. They say he's ready to go. I thought he was the most impactful linebacker by far in college football last year. Davis and Dean are playmakers. They're all over the field. They make plays behind the line. They tackle guys in space. So I think that they have totally revolutionized their defense. defense and then on offense how much better they had injuries at running back receiver they get A.J. Brown are you kidding me that's big that is so do they have a quarterback though yeah I think they've got one of the top five receiving cores now I think Kurt's we're going to find out what he's all about this year and then this year the NFC plays not eight but nine home games So they got nine home games Last year they went nine and eight They get an extra home game Look at their schedule I think it one of the easiest schedules out there Look at the Dallas Cowboys You talk about a team that I think has regressed. They lost a lot of their depth. They lost their number two and number three receiver. Anything Jerry Jones gets his hands on, it turns to you know what. I just think that Philadelphia is going to shock everyone. Get on this line right now. I'm going to play them plus 190 to win the division for every $100. Returns 190. And I'm also playing them over nine and a half wins, minus 120. 10 and 7? I think they go 10 and 7 sleepwalking. Probably going to win maybe 11 or 12 games, believe it or not, in a wide open. The AFC is loaded. There's 8, 9, 10 good teams. In the NFC, it's open this year, wide open. And I think the Philadelphia Eagles are going to jump through that opening, take the Philadelphia Eagles, like I said, to win the division plus 190 and also over nine and a half wins minus 120.”
Philadelphia finished the 2022 NFL season 14-3 and won the NFC East; futures bet on Eagles to win the division hits.
“Philadelphia Eagles last season, nine and eight second in the nfc east are you telling me the eagles are going to be better than the dallas cowboys this season what is up with this bet a little win a lot okay last year dallas i thought had everything go right they go 12 and 5 the eagles go nine and eight and when i was watching the eagles when they lost in the playoffs in the last couple games down the stretch my feeling was that Jalen Hurts was left out to dry. He just didn't have enough help, number one. And I thought their offensive and defensive lines just weren't good enough at the point of attack. So what do they do? They go out, and the draft is usually very overrated. Rarely do you see the numbers go up or down much when teams go from before the draft to after the draft. And this one didn't move much at all, but I think it should. I thought that their draft was excellent. Jordan Davis, defensive lineman, defensive tackle. I think he's going to be a future seven, eight, nine-year all pro. He's that good. He's big, strong, fast. He will anchor the middle of their line. Second round, they got Cam Juergens, really good center. I think it's going to solidify their line. I think they're going to move some things around there. He's going to find his way into the lineup. Real tough guy. And then in the third round, they get N'Kobe Dean. Are you kidding me? I mean, the rumors that he had a pec problem. They say he's ready to go. I thought he was the most impactful linebacker by far in college football last year. Davis and Dean are playmakers. They're all over the field. They make plays behind the line. They tackle guys in space. So I think that they have totally revolutionized their defense. defense and then on offense how much better they had injuries at running back receiver they get A.J. Brown are you kidding me that's big that is so do they have a quarterback though yeah I think they've got one of the top five receiving cores now I think Kurt's we're going to find out what he's all about this year and then this year the NFC plays not eight but nine home games So they got nine home games Last year they went nine and eight They get an extra home game Look at their schedule I think it one of the easiest schedules out there Look at the Dallas Cowboys You talk about a team that I think has regressed. They lost a lot of their depth. They lost their number two and number three receiver. Anything Jerry Jones gets his hands on, it turns to you know what. I just think that Philadelphia is going to shock everyone. Get on this line right now. I'm going to play them plus 190 to win the division for every $100. Returns 190. And I'm also playing them over nine and a half wins, minus 120. 10 and 7? I think they go 10 and 7 sleepwalking. Probably going to win maybe 11 or 12 games, believe it or not, in a wide open. The AFC is loaded. There's 8, 9, 10 good teams. In the NFC, it's open this year, wide open. And I think the Philadelphia Eagles are going to jump through that opening, take the Philadelphia Eagles, like I said, to win the division plus 190 and also over nine and a half wins minus 120.”
Philadelphia finished the 2022 regular season 14-3, clearing the 9.5 win total.
“Let's take the Florida Panthers minus 160 blowout special over the Tampa Bay Lightning. I'm locking it in.”
TB 2, FLA 1 — Tampa Bay beat Florida 2-1 on the road in Game 2 of the second round; Panthers ML loses.
“I'll take the three and a half here and the Boston Celtics level one lock. Hate to say it. Boston Celtics plus three and a half over the Miami Heat.”
BOS 127, MIA 102 — Boston blew out Miami 127-102 in ECF Game 2; Celtics +3.5 covers easily.
“All right, so we've got the Calgary Flames laying 162 at home, game one against the Edmonton Oilers. The take back price, if you like Edmonton, plus 142. So I'm starting to have my doubts about this Calgary Flames team. I think some Flames fans are too. I thought they were going to run through the Dallas Stars with little resistance in the first round. And Dallas, who was probably, I thought, the worst team in postseason this year, took them to overtime of Game 7. This has to be a problem for them. The last couple years, I've noticed they have been favored over wildcard teams, and they get to postseason, especially at home, and they just lose their chemistry up front. They outshot Dallas, get this by a margin of 92 shots on goal in the first series, and yet they only scored seven goals in four games at home to close it out. And what has been a problem for them all year is carried over into the postseason here. I think they only have one line that's really good. Six of their 15 goals came from that first line of forwards, and they were just two for 24 on the power play. The other storyline here, Mike Smith, Edmonton's goalkeeper, struggled in the regular season. But postseason comes and he has figured it out. He has a 934 save percentage in the seven games so far in the playoffs. He was trying to do too much. Game one, he went behind the net, tried to clear out a puck. He got caught, gave up a quick goal, but he made adjustments. And then there's Connor McDavid, already the best player, I believe, in the NHL. Went out in game seven and proved it to everyone. Had six shots on the net and the game-breaking goal in the third period to seal it here. I think he knows that this is his best chance here to make a run at the Cup in Edmonton. It reminds me a little of the Greek freak in Milwaukee. He has a couple of underrated players around him, but the postseason, his time is to show that he's the best in the world. I think he's going to keep up that performance here that he had in the first round. I think Edmonton's going to sneak one past the Calgary Flames tonight. Wrong team favored. Edmonton Oilers plus 142 over the Calgary.”
CGY 9, EDM 6 — Calgary beat Edmonton 9-6 in Game 1 of the Battle of Alberta second round; Oilers ML loses.
“I found this bet. I don't know if you can find it now, and it might still be there. I haven't checked the odds yet this morning, but I took the over here. I just felt it as far as the games being played over five and a half games in the series So as long as it goes to game six or game seven it was minus 160 I still think it a six or seven game series So the price might even be better if you can still grab it there. I don't think Tampa Bay is going to run away with it. They might still win the series, but I think it's a game of adjustments. I don't think the talent level is that much different on either side.”
Tampa Bay swept Florida 4-0 in the second round (May 17, 19, 22, 23); the series ended in 4 games, under the 5.5-game total.
“Chicago White Sox minus the one and a half runs, minus 105, a low out special over the Kansas City Royals.”
KC 6, CHW 2 — Kansas City beat Chicago 6-2 on May 18, 2022; White Sox -1.5 loses outright and fails to cover.
“Yeah, and I'm going to look at this game here between the Golden State Warriors. And it looks like they've got a new splash brother, Jordan Poole, who's joined the party here. They're laying five to five and a half at home against Dallas. And you know what? I'm going to side with Dallas here. And I think some people are going to be surprised. Now, Golden State, you think about their offense, but they're really only in the middle of the pack in the offense. Top five in the NBA defense. But I think they're going to have trouble with this Dallas team. Two reasons. They turn the ball over 15 times a game. How bad is that? Well, at second worst in the NBA, the worst team, the Houston Rockets. So I don't think they're going to be able to get away with turning the ball over 15 or more times against this Dallas team. All of a sudden, Luka's taken over. Luka had 35 in a surprising Game 7 win over Phoenix that was never close. Now all of a sudden he's getting help. Jalen Brunson, he's a nice second option. And Spencer Dinwiddie off the bench. Boy, did he look good. 30 points. So you've got three guys that are hot. I think they can match the firepower of Golden State. I don't think they're going to turn it over as much as Golden State. Luka presents some problems guarding him. And then they bring some guys in off the bench here. Maxi Kleber, guy that averaged seven points in the regular season, stepped up his game. He's a guy that, you know, 6'10", shooting from the corners. Also, Davis Bertans, another guy, almost six points per game the regular season. These two guys that are 6'10", shooting from the corners, Golden State doesn't see it too often here. So I'm going to take the points here. I think Dallas continues to play well. I'm not going to go against the hot team here. Dallas Mavericks plus the five points here. We're going to go with a level two lock against the Golden State Warriors tonight.”
GSW 112, DAL 87 — Golden State beat Dallas 112-87 in WCF Game 1; Mavericks +5 lose by 25, no cover.
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The over-under is 204 total points. Tell us why this is the wrong total, Lee. All right. Well, you see totals in the NBA. The way the game is played now, generally, they're in the 210 to 220 range on a consistent basis. In fact, the series on the other side, the Dallas Golden State series, 10 points, a full 10 points higher the total is. So a couple dynamics working here. We always like to look at layers and bed games based on layers. So you've got the heat coming off the layoff, maybe a little bit rusty. They're only shooting 32.1% from three-point land since the playoffs started. Except for Max Strews, you know, Jimmy Butler a little bit, three-point shot has not been there. And what they're doing is they're sacrificing some of that three-point shooting, taking Robinson out of the game and putting Strews in as a starter because it about defense Look at who has ended up here You can look at all the different ratings and metrics Arguably the best and the second best defenses in the NBA, the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics. So the Heat, they don't want to play run and gun here. They want to gritty the game up. They want to dirty it up. They want to get down and dirty. They want to go with half-court possessions. I think Boston would like to play fast, but they're coming off a really tough series. So they've got to travel, got to play in unfamiliar surroundings here. Grant Williams, I don't see him having another game where he scores 27 points. Jason Tatum, up and down, sometimes really good, sometimes absolutely awful here. Their defense has been good. Marcus Smart, I think he's going to match up against Jimmy Butler a lot. Don't believe that they got him listed as questionable. Miami, for their last game against Philadelphia, had I think five or six guys listed as questionable. If you're listed as questionable, you're playing here. I see a game that might come down to the last possession, so we're not going to play the game. We're going to play the total. I can see like a 98-95 final, so I don't know who's going to win this game. The line is sitting at Miami, minus one and a half, So we're going to go the total under 204 total points here. Wrong team favorite, wrong total favorite. We're going under in the Boston-Miami Heat game, game one.”
MIA 118, BOS 107 — Heat beat the Celtics 118-107 in ECF Game 1, a combined 225 points that went over the 204 total (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Cubs money line, minus 135 versus the Pirates. Break this one down for us. Yeah, the Cubs have actually woken up a bit here in early May. They took 4-6 on their West Coast road trip. And they came back and put up eight runs in the first inning on Pittsburgh last night to open up the divisional series at Wrigley. Now they get, I love this one of the names, JT Brubaker. I mean, that would work in football, basketball, any sport. One of the great names here for the Pirates. Brubaker, though, is not off to a great start this year. 0-3, 534 ERA, almost five walks per nine innings. but he's one of these guys that people are expecting to regress back to where he should be soon. His underlying numbers aren't as bad as his ERA. However, I don't think today is a day for him to get back to where he should be. And there's one main reason, the wind. You got to check the wind always in Chicago. First, the wind is going to be blowing out to right field a little bit, which is going to carry the ball a ton in Chicago. So that would be a problem for a pitcher that gives up a lot of ground balls. But Brubaker is giving up a fly ball on 31% of batter's face, which is 7% higher than his career high. Second is that it's going to be pretty cold in Chicago today, around high 40s. Baseball players know well cold weather means the ball travels farther. If this guy is giving up fly balls on the win, especially on the road where he struggled, It could be a long day for the Pirates pitching staff. One last thing, Brubaker now only 1-11 in his career Major League Baseball on the road so far. So we're going to go with a blowout special. The lovable Chicago Cubs money line here over the Pittsburgh Paritos”
CHC 7, PIT 0 — Cubs shut out the Pirates 7-0; Chicago moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. We're going to roll with the series. Carolina Hurricanes minus one and a half games in the series plus 105 versus the Rangers. Break this one down. Explain it to us, Lee. Yeah, so I just don't really have a play on the game on game one. But I'd really like a series play here So follow this matchup on paper I think is the worst case scenario here for the New York Rangers If you just look at the full season advanced statistics here and numbers the hurricane should run this series out of the water The same thing was true for the first series when Carolina played Boston in New York played Pittsburgh New York gave up a ton of chances even more than some of the teams who lost early, and Carolina dominated possession every single game. It took the Rangers seven games, and I thought a couple of convenient penalty calls to even beat the Penguins, who were playing with their third-string goalie. A lot of people forget that. Carolina gets an extra day and a half of rest before the series because they played early Saturday afternoon while New York played Sunday night. And really, you have to consider home ice advantage here. Carolina has probably the most underrated atmosphere in the NHL during the playoffs. And I don't think New York can withstand without an amazing goaltending performance here in this series. So their goalies made up for their defensive liabilities all season, but was average. I thought their defense at best in the first round, this is not a good matchup here for the Rangers. I think Carolina wins this series in five games. If they win it in six, you're still going to win. I'm going to lay the one and a half games and say Carolina wins four to one or four to two in this series plus 105 here. We're going to make it Carolina over the Rangers by at least one and a half games. Level two lock.”
NYR 6, CAR 2 (Gm7) — Rangers beat the Hurricanes 6-2 in Game 7 to win the series 4-3, meaning Carolina never covered -1.5 games (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. We're going to roll Boston minus 180 to win the series versus the Heat with the take back being plus 150. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so I'm pretty good most of the time at projecting what I think the lines are going to be. I thought Boston maybe minus 110, 120. I was not going to be surprised if Miami opened up as a favorite in the series because, remember, Miami is the home team. I mean, there is maybe no better advantage, home court advantage, than the Miami Heat. So Miami Heat even won at home without Jimmy Butler in that fifth game against Atlanta. So, yeah, I don't get it. I think Boston's a really good team. They might be better man for man than the Heat. But you know what? I just think that all the intangibles on the Heat side here home court advantage and everyone was talking about Milwaukee without Middleton Yep that true But since last year I thought something that was not talked about much at all the difference without P.J. Tucker. And being able to go small against Boston hurt them. It seemed like over and over again someone was open to shoot three-pointers, and I don't think that's going to happen too often against Miami. So I think this Miami team is going to be really tough. I'm not saying that any of the four teams are the best teams we've seen in the NBA. These are not legendary teams, the last four teams that are left. But I just think that this team is going to come down to the intangibles, coaching staff, home court advantage. I'm picking the Heat, plus 150. Are you kidding me? Bet a little, win a whole lot. I'm riding the Miami Heat. I think they upset the Boston Celtics here in the Eastern Conference Finals.”
BOS 100, MIA 96 (Gm7) — Celtics beat the Heat 100-96 in Game 7 to win the Eastern Conference Finals 4-3; Miami's futures ticket busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Brewers minus 130 versus the Braves. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So I got to see the Brew Crew here in Miami. watched all their games really closely, and they're playing some good baseball. So they play the Braves tonight in Milwaukee for the first time since Atlanta eliminated the Brew Crew from the playoffs last year. But it's interesting to remember that these two teams were at the same point last year. Milwaukee comfortably leaving the NL Central, just like they did last year, and Atlanta was struggling to get out of the gate. The Braves' biggest weakness so far has been their bullpen. They lost two games in that big series over the weekend to the Padres because of this bullpen. And without Luke Jackson to throw big innings, something just isn't right back there. The lineup still isn't healthy. And a close game against the Brewers team that is red hot, I don't think it's going to cut it. I think this game might be close for a while, and then Milwaukee should be able to pull away late. I like the Brew Crew here. They're going to win something like 5-2 here. Blowout special. Milwaukee Brewers money line over the Atlanta Braves.”
MIL 1, ATL 0 — Brewers shut out the Braves 1-0 behind Freddy Peralta; Milwaukee moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. We're going to roll Red Sox money line minus 125. Again, the first five innings versus the Astros.”
BOS 2, HOU 1 (through 5) — Red Sox led the Astros 2-1 after five innings en route to a 6-3 win; Boston first-five moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Warriors minus 8.5 versus Grizzlies. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, I'm telling you this right now, flat out. This is a client play. This is a strong play for me. You look at this Golden State-Memphis game. You look at their records. Okay, about the same. But you look at their spread records. Golden State, 45-43-4 against the spread this year. Memphis, number one in the NBA. 59-33-1. If you're betting on Memphis this year, you're cleaning up. And how are they without their star, John Morant? And I've never seen this before. 21 and 6 straight up so you're getting eight and a half points in this game all of a sudden they're having a mentality right now of we are not going to allow anyone into the lane steven adams all of a sudden is playing some really good basketball they are dominating the in fact there were plus 18 on the boards including 18 offensive rebounds in the last game here It doesn't make any sense, but this team just plays much better defense without Jha. And I don't think they have to even shoot 47.5% three-pointers like they did in the last game, 18 three-pointers. I think if they hit 9 or 10, they're going to cover and maybe win this game outright. So I like their mentality here. Look at the two key guys for Golden State. Right now, I think their two key guys are obviously Stephen Curry. And the last two games, not even close to 50% shooting three-pointers. And then also, I think it's Jordan Poole. I think as he goes, so goes this team. And just not the same here. So I'm picking the eight-and-a-half points here. Wrong team favored. Memphis, the Grizzlies, they take this game down to the wire. They might even win it out right here. Wrong team favorite. I don't mind if they cover. I don't mind if they cover. I just don't want to see a game seven. I want to see a game seven. I do not, Lee. I do not. If they go to a game seven in Memphis, it does not look good for the Golden State Warriors. And I am a Warrior fan. So I do not want to see that happen. But I'll tell you, man, you hit it on the head. Curry and Poole are really the best two players right now for the Warriors. And Poole is fantastic as he was playing earlier. seems like he's drowning in that pool right now. I don't know what is going on with him. He been all of a sudden hesitant to pull the trigger I mean I don know what It almost like you know it almost like the Monstars came and took his talent because all of a sudden he gone from where he was to where he is now which is really strange. I don't know what's going on with him, but that is a major, major issue right there. So, yeah, wrong team favorite in that one, Golden State versus Memphis. I don't mind if Memphis covers.”
GS 110, MEM 96 — Warriors beat the Grizzlies 110-96 in Game 6, a 14-point margin that busts Memphis +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Braves money line minus 150 versus the Padres. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, if this game was played, first game or even second game of the season, And I'm saying San Diego as an underdog, I'm all over it. Yeah, maybe the better team. Pitching matchup is about even. But listen to this. The Padres have lost two of the last three, losing their series against the Cubs at home. Now you Darvish starts on the mound in Atlanta. I really don't think it's a good matchup for Darvish or the Padres. So if you look into Darvish's home and road splits last couple years, it's not pretty. In fact, when San Diego beat the Pirates the other night, it was their first road win with Darvish on the mound, get this, since May of 2021. What's worse for Darvish is his strikeout numbers this year. His career strikeouts per nine inning stat is right around 11. But this year, down to 7.6, the worst of his entire career in Major League Baseball. If you're subtly pitching to contact against a lineup as strong as Atlanta's, that is going to cause big-time problems for you. He's already 1-4 with a .480 ERA in his career against the Braves, and if he's not getting the strikeouts he needs, he's going to have big problems tonight. Max Fried on the other hand is on the mound for Atlanta, has had one bad opening start but otherwise has been fantastic since giving up five runs in the season debut, 172 ERA in his last five starts. He's given up just two earned runs in the last two home starts. I don't think people realize here how big of a pitching mismatch this one is. I think the Braves run away with it here. Blowout special, Atlanta Braves money line over the slamless Diego Padres.”
SD 11, ATL 6 — Padres beat the Braves 11-6; Atlanta moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Betonline.net line for this one. The Rangers money line minus 117 versus Pittsburgh. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, we talked about this yesterday. I typically like to back a team right after they lose your star player because it can serve as a rallying point for the whole group. But Sidney Crosby is probably out for Pittsburgh tonight, and the difference he makes for his team is almost as big as LeBron James for the L.A. Lakers. Before the injury the other night, he led the NHL in points at five versus five in the postseason, and he was second in expected goals percentage and was truly a one-man team this postseason. Coming into the postseason, the Penguins' forward depth was the biggest concern, and Crosby had been able to cover up for those issues in the first few games. But the moment he went down the other night, the Rangers took over the game, and I think it's going to happen again tonight. Now, Pittsburgh is also starting their third-string goalie, Louis Dominique. So even though he has been a great story so far, I think it's going to come to an end. When the Rangers took over game five, they did it by shooting to Dominique's glove side. Both of Pittsburgh's top goalies are lefties. So when Dominique came in as a righty, it changed the Rangers game plan on the fly. But I think they've started to figure it out. And I think they have all the momentum now. So this is a series that's going to, in my opinion, go to game seven. It's going to go back to Madison Square Garden in a couple nights. I think the Rangers win this game here, 4-1 or 5-1 here. Level 3 locked in the week. First time ever, three level 3 locks in a week. New York Rangers, money line, minus 117 here over the Pittsburgh Penguins.”
NYR 5, PIT 3 — Rangers beat the Penguins 5-3 in Game 6, forcing Game 7; New York moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Blonde Fighter minus 180 with the take back plus 155 on Amanda Ebas. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so in any sport, there's a team you don't like. In the UFC, there's a couple fighters you don't like. Kaitlyn Chikagian is one of the fighters I can't stand. She is boring with a capital B. Why? How about this? Not her last. Not her second last. We're talking about her last four fights have ended in a decision. her loss I mean when she loses there was two times after that two of the next three fights she lost that didn't go to a decision but you have to go all the way back check this out to 2016 like 10-11 fights before she won a fight that wasn't a decision she stands up and she's a stand up fighter can't do much else she lost her chance when she went against Antonio Chepchenko for the championship. She loses that, I'm sorry, Valentino Chivchenko. She lost and she was put in a crucifix. But since that fight, she just stands there. She's one of those fighters. She grunts and makes noises when she throws punches. She doesn't do much damage. She's just boring. So I don't get it. Here's what's happening right now in her division. She is stuck in the fact that they really don't have anyone else that's a better, you know, top contender to fight the champion. And I think they're going to keep throwing people at her, and they want to see someone else fight the champion. She's 33. I don't think she's getting any better here. The only way she wins this fight is by decision. And I just think that Eva has fought up and down. She's fought lower. She's fought higher weight classes. She's smaller, whereas Chikagian is 5'9". She's much smaller as Zeebus, but I think she's good enough because she goes forward and she kicks. If she gets her to the ground, I think there's a chance she can end it or stay on top for a number of minutes each round here. I'm taking the odds here. I think the odds are off. I think there should be Chatea in minus 130, 140. I think it's too high. We're going to go with Zeebus here plus 155 here. Bet a little, win a whole lot on USC's fight night card on Saturday night.”
Katlyn Chookagian beat Amanda Ribas by split decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic on May 14, 2022; Ribas moneyline busts (Wikipedia event results, corroborating official card).
“BetOnline line for this one The Suns minus two versus the Mavs Thoughts on this one Lee Yeah, and I told you, we've talked about this. I think the Suns are the best team. So, yep, they got caught the last two games in Dallas, but I don't think it's going to happen again here. So this is a team that when they shoot mid to high 40s and they shoot mid to high 30s in three-point land, they're going to win. Devin Booker, last game, 28 points. DeAndre Ayton, 20 points. And then in the last game, and they won that game going away by 30 points, their star player, Chris Paul, kind of sat back and let his best guys do their work here. Only seven points, three of eight shooting, one from three, from three-point land with 10 assists. I think he's waiting to take over. If his team needs him, he's going to take over. I don't think this Dallas team is that good. Like I said, I love Brunson. I think he's going to be a superstar. He just does not work. here with a lineup that they had. They have no front court players here. I think Phoenix ends it tonight here. Blowout special. The Phoenix Suns advance here over the Dallas Mavericks.”
DAL 113, PHX 86 — Mavericks beat the Suns 113-86 in Game 6; Phoenix lost outright, busting -2 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Wild minus 105 versus the Blues. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so the state and the city of Minneapolis and Minnesota, I mean, they've seen a lot of heartache. I mean, you talk about football, the Vikings never won a title, and never won NFL championship. Hockey, a lot of pretty good teams can't advance in the playoffs. Basketball, baseball, they've won a couple titles, but they seem to get in the playoffs and get swept right away. I think this series is going seven games, and maybe the heartache ends there, but if there ever was a series to go seven games, I think this is the one. These are two evenly matched teams in the postseason, and you could see it the other night if you watched the game St Louis won 5 but Minnesota I thought was the better team throughout It just took one mistake in the third period for the Blues to take over and win it You have to keep up to date with injury reports also. St. Louis has been hit with injuries, especially on the blue line, more than any other team this postseason. They'll be without two regulars back there, and Jordan Bickerton, their goalie, came in in game two, and since that time, really has not impressed me. I don't think the Blues are going to close it out tonight. So I made this line, believe it or not, even though Minnesota's on the road, they should be like a minus 120, 125 favorite here. So we're going to go with the Minnesota Wild money line as a level two lock over the St. Louis Blues tonight.”
STL 5, MIN 1 — Blues beat the Wild 5-1 in Game 6, eliminating Minnesota; Wild moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline line for this one The Flames minus one and a half goals plus 123 versus stars thoughts on this one lee yeah i not going to play a money line on this game or the total i think the best way to attack this game is to either lay the one and a half or take the one and a half and i just think the tides of the series turned a little bit the other night in dallas the flames had scored just three goals in the first three games before breaking out in a blowout in game for. And now the series is tied 2-2, heading back to Canada tonight. The story of the postseason so far has been Dallas's goaltender, Jake Otinger. I mean, Calgary outshot Dallas again by a wide margin. How wide? 54-35. They have outshot the Stars by a margin of 44 shots on net so far this series, tied 2-2. But I think they've finally broken through. Their top line showed up. They opened up the ice quite a bit, and that really does not favor Dallas' game plan. The Stars do not have the talent to compete with Calgary here, so they have to keep things close here and tight. But I think fatigue is going to create more penalties and more open chances on both ends of the ice here, and that's going to favor Calgary here. So sometimes it takes the better team a couple of games to settle in, and it looks like that will be the case tonight. If the Flames can stay out of the penalty box, I think they run away with this one here. We're going to lay the one and a half goals here, plus 123. Calgary Flames, oh, how I love those teams from Canada this year in the playoffs, plus 123 minus the one and a half goals over the Dallas Stars.”
3-1 — Flames beat the Stars 3-1 in Game 5, covering Calgary -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Celtics minus five and a half versus Milwaukee. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay. So seven o'clock start here. So you got to get ready to go. It's not 7.30 or 8. And very rarely do I release level three locks. We released one yesterday on the Miami Heat. Loved the setup. Thought Miami, better coaching staff, playing at home. I thought Embiid would be a little distracted, and he was, and that was the case. And I just think that the Milwaukee Bucks just don't have it this year without Middleton. So, yeah, the Greek Freak has looked great. Giannis, you know, looked great for most of the game, but they were outscored 43-28 in the crucial fourth period to lose by eight points in that game. So you look at the scoreline, 34 points for him, 18 rebounds. But after that, Drew Holiday, 16 points. And the rest of the guys on the team, I just think that they're role players. I mean, we have not seen Celtics' best basketball. So, you know, they've got three superstars, I believe, here that can carry a team and have huge games. And they haven't even had any of those guys have great games here. It's been Al Fordford. So when you look at this team, you've got guys like Jalen Brown. You've got Marcus Smart. You know, these guys, you don't think of these guys as number ones, but they can have really big games here. So I think that they're going to have big games, at least two of the big three. And then I think that you're going to see one of the best games also by Jason Tatum. He's almost one of those guys, those eight or ten guys that's unguardable here. And then finally, defense. When it comes down to it in all the sports, you can have all the scoring you want, and it's fun to watch. But at the end, usually it's the best defensive teams. And who are the best defensive teams in the Eastern Conference? The Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics. So I'm going to lay the five and a half points. I think this game has blowout special written all over I think they win this game by double digits And for that reason it going to be another first maybe ever in the history in the 16 months 17 months we been doing the show here Two back-to-back level three locks, Boston Celtics minus a five-and-a-half here over the Milwaukee Bucs.”
MIL 110, BOS 107 — Bucks beat the Celtics 110-107 in Game 5; Boston lost outright, busting -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline line for this one the Astros minus 123 versus the Twins Thoughts on this one Lee Well it didn go very well for the Twins last night No And Correa I mean I sure he was looking forward to it He wanted to have a big game against his old mates, but it just did not work out that way at all. In fact, on the game, they had all three hits. That's it. Three total hits here. So this was not their day here. So I think they're going to have trouble again here because they're going to face a Houston Astros pitching staff that's one of the best I've ever seen. They've given up, get this, eight runs in the last eight games total. They have given up to batters this year over that span, eight games, 1168 batting average. Justin Berlander had a no-hitter through seven innings last night as well. You know, this is a team right now that's going to face Chris Archer from Minnesota, who nice comeback story to Major League Baseball. But look at who he's faced the last four starts, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Chicago, and Kansas City. All those offenses are really struggling this year. He's not lasting very long in the games, and that's going to be a problem tonight against Minnesota's bullpen that has thrown almost 17 innings in the last three games alone. They have to be tired back there. Minnesota has been a nice story this season but I think this series will humble them a bit and Houston takes game two here um yeah uh I I think this game has blowout special written all over here Houston Astros blowout special here over the Minnesota Twins”
HOU 11, MIN 3 — Astros beat the Twins 11-3; Houston moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Maple Leafs minus 122 versus Tampa Bay Lightning with the take back being plus 112. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? Break it down for us. Yeah, I think the Lightning are starting to figure things out here. Game one was perhaps the worst game of the entire season for them, but they progressively played better since then, except for some dumb penalties. Most importantly, they started to figure out a goal with Jack Campbell. He has just an 889 save percentage. so far in the postseason. He's given up an average three and a half goals per game here. So that's working for them. They have experience. They've rebounded always well after a loss here for years. And they just look like the better team all series. They just have to avoid special teams. I think this game is where we see them settle down even more and they take control of the series, even though it's in Toronto this game here. Toronto just doesn't have the depth and veterans to keep their momentum when they're playing five on five. We're going to go here with the wrong team favorite. When in doubt, favor the better goalie here, Tampa Bay Lightning. Moneyline plus 112 over the Toronto Maple Leafs.”
TOR 4, TB 3 — Maple Leafs beat the Lightning 4-3 in Game 3; Tampa Bay Lightning moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Phillies' first five innings money line, minus 125 versus the Mariners. Break this one down. Yeah, so Aaron Nola has been one of the few bright spots here for the Phillies. There's haven't been many so far this year, but he's given up just three earned runs. Last two starts over 13 innings pitch and has an 0.87 whip, which is nearly the best in the league. He was a finesse pitcher, just like me. I couldn't break 82 miles per hour on my fastball. So he's probably low 90s, but he has a very different style than his counterpart here. Seattle's starter here, Robbie Ray. Robbie Ray, more of a fastball-heavy guy. He relies on strikeouts and avoiding contact in his career, but it's just not working for Ray so far this year. He's a 438 ERA this year. Just been one bad inning. It seems like every single inning that's killed him, he gave up three runs in the fifth when they lost to the Marlins. Then he gave up four runs in the fourth inning to lose to the Rays. So seems to lose it by the fifth inning. with how low the scoring has been across baseball this season. That kind of inning can ruin your team's chances to win a game here. The Mariners won in six the last seven games against a right-handed pitcher here, and they've lost 10 in the last 12 here. I think the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen has just burned me too much so far this year, so I'm going to leave them out of this here. So we're going to go here with a blowout special. Philadelphia Phillies, different way to attack this game. First five innings, money line, minus 125 of the Seattle Mariners.”
SEA 3, PHI 2 (through 5) — Mariners led Phillies 3-2 after five innings en route to a 5-4 win; Phillies first-five moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Heat minus three versus 76ers. Thoughts on this one? Wow. So the first two games, Miami Heat blew out Philadelphia. Obviously, without Joel Embiid, Philadelphia just couldn't compete. But then they go back to Philadelphia, and what a difference he made. I'm not saying he played his best basketball, but just a different team here. And the spacing, you know, opened up for them. They were able to shoot threes. In fact, Philadelphia shot 54% from the field and nearly 49% from three-point range in the win on Sunday. James Harden, who, I mean, a lot of people counted him out. I wouldn't say I totally counted him out, but I would say he was certainly, it looked like, on the downslide. But in that game on Sunday, 6-for-10 from three-point range. Also added nine assists, seven rebounds, by far. The best that we've seen him since going back to his Rockets days. So he is back on his game. The game before that, Danny Green looked like he was 28 years old and playing for the San Antonio Spurs. So they just looked rejuvenated here. So two games at home, they shot over 51%. The Heat on Sunday, 7 for 35 from three-point land. That's my shooting percentage. Actually, I'm not quite that good. I'm about 18% from three-point land, and that's for the college three-point line. But that not Miami Heat asks here So I think you going to see some changes here I think they going to cut down on the playing time of Lowry I think that Lowry just been awful. Three for 14 from the field. In fact, 0 for 6 from three-point land in the two games from Philadelphia. I think he's still suffering not 100% back from his injury. So I think they're going to make some changes, and I think it's going to be Duncan Robinson has not played. I don't think a minute in the first four games. I think they need some three-point shooting here. Home crowd. You talk about a home court advantage over the last 20, 25 years. Maybe none can compare to the Miami Heat arena, whatever they want to call it, from AAA, FTX arena, or probably a crypto.com arena soon, too. So I'm going with the Miami Heat. I'm going to lay the three points here. They usually shoot 38% to 43% on three-pointers, and that'll be enough here. Blowout. It's going to be also a level three lock here. The Miami Heat take a 3-2 lead here over the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday night.”
120-85 — Heat blew out the 76ers 120-85 in Game 5, covering Miami -3 easily (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Panthers minus 185 versus the Capitals with the take back, plus 160 on Washington. Break this one down for us, Lee. I mean, what a regular season for the Florida Panthers. I mean, setting records and goals scored, they've never been the number one seed. But that's what's great about hockey. We've seen it over and over again. Seven seeds beat two seeds, eight seeds even knock off one seeds because what's the most important player? The goalie. If you don't have a good defense, you're not going to win championships. Even the great teams, the Edmontons, they knew how to play defense when they had Gretzky and Meske on their offense. So, hey, I think Miami's and this Florida Panther team is really good. Alexander Barkoff, really good. Jonathan Huberto, really good. These are two of the top ten scores in the NHL, but they have not gotten past the first round, and now they've got adversity. And I love even what the Florida Panthers put out after they lost 6-1 on Saturday, put out on their Twitter, today was a good practice. We got some work done and we'll be coming to the rink ready to play. I don't think it's that easy. You know, in hockey, you can't just turn on a switch. So Washington, I think right now, has their number. And I think it's going to be tough for Florida with their defense. I don't think it's great. I don't think they have a top five or even a top ten goalie in the NHL. So, you know, like I said, these upsets happen in the NHL playoffs because goalies can stand on their head. And I think Florida's in trouble right now. So we're going to go with Betta Little went a whole lot. We're going with the Washington Capitals as they move to the 3-1 advantage over the Florida Panthers tonight in the NHL playoffs.”
FLA 3, WSH 2 — Florida Panthers beat Washington Capitals 3-2 in overtime in Game 4 of the East first round (Sam Reinhart OT winner); Capitals moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“betonline.net line for this one the giants minus one and a half runs minus 112 versus the rockies thoughts on this one lee yeah i i really like what what san francisco did after losing the first two games in the series against St. Louis. They came back and they win the last two. They got the split. Now they're at home. They have an advantageous schedule moving forward, and it starts here against the Colorado Rockies. They've got the better pitcher, Carlos Roldan. Here's a guy that is rolling right now, just watching when his pitch is. And I'm making notes here, and, I mean, he's hitting the strike zone, throwing a lot more strikes and balls, getting ahead in counts here. So you've got the advantage. You've got the better pitcher here, 3-1, 155 ERA. He, you know, just dominant right now. And the Colorado lineup, I'm just not impressed with this lineup here. So, you know, I thought that they were going to have trouble this year, and now they're even having more trouble. The only guy that's hitting in this lineup is not Julio Iglesias, Jose Iglesias, their shortstop. He's hitting .308, you know, out of the eight hole. Another guy hitting like crazy, C.J. Kron, first baseman, nine homers, 24 RBIs. But I think that's over with. I think he'll start coming back to where he was expected to be. So the lineup just doesn't, you know, doesn't fear you at all. And I just think that this San Francisco team has a nice lineup, the better pitcher, the better bullpen playing at home here. I'm going to lay the one and a half runs here and take San Francisco as Colorado's starting to come back to earth here. This is going to be the blowout special. San Francisco minus one and a half runs big time over the Colorado Rockies.”
SF 8, COL 5 — San Francisco Giants beat Colorado Rockies 8-5 (Carlos Rodon 12 K's over 6 IP); Giants win by 3, covering -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“betonline.net line for this one currently. The Bucks minus one versus Celtics. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yes, so Milwaukee opened up after the last game as a one and a half point favorite in game four. And it moved all the way down to a pick them last night. It's back up to Milwaukee minus one. So there's a lot of action back and forth action on this game. Here's the way I feel when I'm watching games. I take notes and I trust my notes And when you not having a good week you don want to play like eight or 10 games in the night and you don want to increase your bets And we talked about wager size and things like that. When you're losing, you cut back a little bit. You don't increase your wagers. I also like to limit my plays here. And I feel the strongest play here is Milwaukee. Boston, they had their chances. You know, some people might argue, you know, SmartKot Fowl should have been shooting three free throws. You know, the list goes on and on. Maybe they didn't get the calls here, but that's for losers. Milwaukee did what they had to do to win that game here. I even heard some other people saying, well, Jason Tatum's not going to go four for 19 from the field again. But hey, Milwaukee, they played good defense. Looks like the Greek Freak and also here Drew Holiday are controlling the action. They're getting a lot from their bench and Portis and Connington. So I just think that right now this is the team that's playing better right now. So even if Jason Tatum has a good game, it doesn't mean all of a sudden that Jalen Browns can also have a good game. So I think both need to play well for them to win this game here. They got a great effort from Al Horford. He had 16 rebounds in the game. So even with that 16 rebounds, they still lost the rebounding advantage here. So I just think Milwaukee a little bit better from the three-point line here. Playing at home has to matter for something here. The defending champs, they've learned how to win in clutch situations here. So I'm laying the one point here. We're going to go with a level one lock to start the week here. Milwaukee Bucks over the Boston Celtics as they take a 3-1 advantage.”
MIL 108, BOS 116 — Boston Celtics beat Milwaukee Bucks 116-108 in Game 4 of the East semifinals (Al Horford 30 pts, Giannis Antetokounmpo 34 pts for Milwaukee); Bucks lose outright, busting -1 (ESPN box score).
“First one is Moe Donegal. Moe Donegal is in the one post. One post, you know, back in the day, that was great to be on the inside, but it has not been of late. But, in fact, has not won in, I think the last time was 30 years ago. But I think this is a great situation here. Got a great trainer, Todd Fletcher, a really good jockey in Irad Ortiz Jr. Horses 10-1. If it's a slower pace, which I think it will be with all those horses, really good kick. So you want to take a shot? Mo Donegal at 10 to 1.”
Rich Strike (80-1) won the 2022 Kentucky Derby; Mo Donegal finished 5th, so the futures bet loses (Wikipedia 2022 Kentucky Derby results).
“You want to go and maybe where you don't go on vacation in Visit Island, you own the island, the number 18 horse, Tawny Port. If you want to celebrate with a win by having some Taney Port, Brad Cox is the trainer, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1. It's only racing two races, this horse, but it's one boat. Not a lot is known about this horse. You know, you're looking for an outlier. Maybe this is it. It goes wire to wire. Number 18 in post, Taney Port.”
Rich Strike (80-1) won the 2022 Kentucky Derby; Tawny Port finished 7th, so the futures bet loses (Wikipedia 2022 Kentucky Derby results).
“the betonline.net line for this one. The Dallas Mavericks plus one and a half versus Suns.”
DAL 103, PHX 94 — Dallas Mavericks beat Phoenix Suns 103-94 in Game 3 of the West semifinals (Luka Doncic, Jalen Brunson); Mavericks win outright, covering +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. uh charles dubronx minus 170 versus justin the highlight gaethje break this one down for us lee all right so this card has two of my favorites here and it's rose nami unis who's a champion she's taking carlos esparza and um that's going to be a great fight i mean that'd be enough to get me excited for a ufc pay-per-view card but the top fight the main card uh main draw is Charles Oliveira against maybe my all-time favorite, Justin Gaethje. You want to watch an exciting fighter. Justin Gaethje is that he's won five of the last six fights. The only fight he lost was against Khabib. That's nothing to be embarrassed about. But Charles Oliveira is under the radar. You talk about for a champion, people don't realize he won 10 straight. He can do it all. And once he gets his hands on you, he usually submits you. And that's how Justin Gaethje went down. Now, Justin Gaethje really has improved since he lost back-to-back fights before he went on this run. He just used to want to put on a show for the fans, but he learned you've got to be more patient. It's about winning. It's not taking all that damage. Not a one-punch fighter needs to put together combinations, and it's tough to put together combinations here against Oliveira. So it's all about matchups, and you can't just play favorites, and you've got to really look at each individual matchup. And I just think Gaethje, this is not a good matchup for him. So I'm going to take Charles Dubronx-Olivera over the highlight, Justin Gaethje here on Saturday night in the main event here. I think this is going to be a blowout special as Charles Dubronx-Olivera probably submits him in the third round.”
Charles Oliveira submitted Justin Gaethje via rear-naked choke in round 1 (3:22) of the UFC 274 main event; Oliveira moneyline wins (Wikipedia UFC 274 results). (Oliveira def. Gaethje by submission (rear-naked choke), Round 1, 3:22)
“bet online that net line for this one the yankees minus one and a half runs minus 110 versus rangers break this one down for us lee i thought you used to call them the texas strangers yeah they were they were definitely the texas strangers but when they're on a little bit of a win streak, I'll give them a little bit of love. Okay. Yeah, four in a row. So, a lot of people would not go with a team that lost the day before and lay one and a half runs here, but I think this is a perfect situational setup here. The Yankees just had their 11-game winning streak, snapped here to Toronto last night. So, nice bounce back. I think it's going to take place. Garrett Cole is on the mound. Looks like he's rounding into some real nice form. His fastball, electric again. He's 2-0 in his last two starts, 12-2 scoreless innings, and he's cut his ERA in half since his season debut when he got beat up and roughed up by the Red Sox. I thought Texas would be more competitive this season, especially offensively, but instead they're 24th in the league in batting average. They're not getting the pitching support. They need Glenn Otto, start for them here. 1-0, 289 ERA on the season, but he's faced Oakland's awful offense in Houston when half of their lineup was out. So the line jumped here from minus 165 to minus 220 on the money line. So hence, we're not going to lay 220. Let's go with laying the one and a half runs here. It'll probably keep moving up, get it as early as possible. I don't think the strangers here stand a chance. They go back to their losing ways. The New York Yankees minus the one and a half runs. blowout special, but we're going to call it”
NYY 2, TEX 1 — The Yankees-Rangers game rained out on May 6 was made up as Game 1 of a May 8 doubleheader; Yankees won 2-1 (Gleyber Torres walk-off HR), winning by only 1 run and failing to cover -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Heat minus three versus Philadelphia. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Break it down for us. Okay, so Joel Embiid is missed. I mean, he's the MVP, in my opinion. I don't know if he wins it or not, but he gets my vote. Without them, they're just not the same. I was at the game the other night and really studying what this team does here. And I'm really impressed with Tyrese Maxey. I mean, what a find to get him. I think like 21st, something like that, a couple years ago in the first round. A lot of teams passed him by Tobias Harris. He had his moments. I think Maxey had 35. Harris had 20 21 points but it wasn enough Why James Harden second half What has he done the last couple of games two for nine in the second half just not good enough I don know whether it it's all those minutes that he's played. When you have a guy that's been a lead guy and he plays all those minutes and everything's on his shoulders, usually it doesn't work out. I mean, look at Harden's career hadn't won a championship when he was on Houston, just couldn't get over the hump here. And I think he slowed down here. I don't think his teammates love the guy. You know, hey, anyone can, you know, give him a little high five after a basket, you know, a little backslap. But, you know, there's a reason why he's been on three teams in the last two years. And this Miami defense, I think it's going to come down to Boston and Miami. Why? Defense, just like in the NFL. Everyone loves offense, but defense wins championships. and they come at you in swarms. No team has more depth here than Miami. I'm laying the three. I think Miami's going to go up 3-0 and Sixers are going to be in that 0-3 hole here. Lay the three. Level two lock. My Miami Heat over the hapless Philadelphia 76ers.”
PHI 99, MIA 79 — Philadelphia 76ers beat Miami Heat 99-79 in Game 3 of the East semifinals (Joel Embiid returned from injury); Heat lose outright, busting -3 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Marlins money line plus 105 versus the Padres. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so you would think with the records and Flamie Diego having such a good record and the Marlins 12-12 and getting swept by Arizona, this would be Flamie Diego would be minus 140, minus 150. Kind of tells you something. When the line is off, it's off for a reason. They're trying to get you to bet Flamie Diego. So I think if you do, it's going to be a mistake. So we know the Marlins got swept at home by the Arizona Diamondbacks. The pitching staff struggled, especially early, and they just didn't match up well for some reason with the Arizona lineup. But I think this line is an overreaction to that. Jesus Lozardo forming into the guy the Marlins fans thought they were getting last season when Miami traded for him from the Oakland A's. and it comes down to control for him. 2-1 this year with a 3-10 ERA, giving up just four hits and two earned runs in the last 11 starts here. And, wow, I mean, giving up now just nine walks to 28 strikeouts on the season, this is huge for him. He's always had nasty stuff to make hitters look silly, but putting it all together makes all the difference in the world for him. He's going against a Padres lineup that has actually performed, you know, what their statistics would suggest. They rank in the middle of the pack in OPS and batting average, while Miami is actually in the top of 11 in both. And Nick Martinez, San Diego starter, you're probably scratching your head. You're going, I remember that name. He's been getting hit around all season. How do I remember his name? Well, used to be with the Texas Rangers for, I think, three or four years. He went to Japan for four years. Now he's back as a starter for San Diego. He was actually – didn't even – went to high school here in Miami, high school called Belen, didn't even pitch. He was a second baseman. So I just don't think he's very good. I don't like his stuff a whole lot. He might be going back to Japan after this season. I don't think he's going to be able to stick. I think the wrong team's favorite here. Miami Marlins here. Money line plus 105 over the Slam Diego Padres.”
SD 2, MIA 1 — San Diego Padres beat Miami Marlins 2-1 (Manny Machado 2 HR, Nick Martinez won, Jesus Luzardo lost); Marlins moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Panthers minus 250 versus the Capitals. And then we're going to roll with a little double style here. Also, Lee, you're going to give us the over-under with six and a half goals being the total. Break this one down for us. Yeah, so the Panthers just didn't look right in game one. And it reminded me what happened in the first round series loss last year when they played Tampa Bay. They took 106 penalty minutes in that series and gave up six power play goals in six games. So what do they do in game one against Washington? You think they learn from their mistakes. They took three first period penalties, gave up an early goal, and had five minor penalties to keep their stars off the ice here. So a couple of players just didn't play well. Sam Bennett even though he had a goal at the end of the first which was huge they just needed they were up one goal going into the third just couldn put him away Sam Reinhart didn look right here only one shot on goal Aaron Eckblatt their star defenseman struggled on the ice He was on the ice for three of Washington four goals And I don't think Andrew Burnett, the head coach here, who was the assistant who was elevated during the season, coached a real good game behind the bench. So sometimes just it's not your day here. Actually, Florida controlled most of the play. They had a 10-6 advantage in scoring chance advantage here in high danger shots, but just couldn't put those goals in the back of the net here. The goalie Bobrovsky played fine. I think Eckblad will settle in here. So I think Florida's going to win this game here easy. I mean, I think we might have like a 6-2, 7-2 final here. So we're going to go with a blowout special on the Florida Panthers here over the Washington Capitals, even though it's money line minus 250. I'm also going to give out a selection on the over six and a half goals in the game. I think it's been one of those games where Florida might have six, seven goals by themselves. And Q, you can go to sleep before the third period even starts.”
FLA 5, WSH 1 — Florida Panthers beat Washington Capitals 5-1 in Game 2 of the East first round (Barkov goal+assist, Ekblad goal, Bobrovsky 26 saves); Panthers moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“I'm also going to give out a selection on the over six and a half goals in the game. I think it's been one of those games where Florida might have six, seven goals by themselves. And Q, you can go to sleep before the third period even starts.”
FLA 5, WSH 1 — Florida Panthers beat Washington Capitals 5-1, a combined 6 goals; the over 6.5 goals loses (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Oxfighter, minus 125, versus the Rude Boy. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, first of all, I think I need to even define what a Rude Boy is. I didn't know, so I'm like, you know what? I love the nickname. I love walking around the office saying, Rude Boy, Rude Boy. So I looked it up, and a rude boy or girl is someone who knows about traditional Jamaican music and dresses in the style and respects it. So I'm like, oh, okay, that makes sense. Rude boy is from Jamaica. So this fight is the third fight in the UFC 274 preliminary card where Chaos Williams takes on Randy Rude Boy Brown, 170-pound welterweight division. 28-year-old Chaos Williams, 125 favorite here, is a ferocious KO artist who has got a 13-2 overall record, 4-1 in the UFC, with his only loss to the incredibly talented Michelle Pareda. So Pereira here beat him, but it was a close decision. I mean, it was a really good fight. His opponent here, 31-year-old Randy, rude boy, Brown, 14-4 and 8-4 in the UFC. Now Brown stands at 6 very tall for the division and I would say the more experienced and well fighter Excellent jiu and to me one of the best obviously UFC nicknames because it so much fun to say, Ru Boy. But the problem is that with all of Brown's great qualities, including charisma, it's fun to watch and plays up to the crowd, just takes one punch from chaos to finish this fight. and in order for Brown to win this one, he has to get his hands on Williams. So he needs to get real close. Several UFC fighters who tried, found out the hard way when they awoke with concussions that you can't touch this. In this one, I just think that Brown is going to find out that Chaos Williams is too legit to quit and Rude Boy will get taught a lesson in manners while getting laid out by his MC Hammer. Chaos reigns supreme here. Sorry, Rude Boy. Still love you. I love it. I love it, man. All I got is all the MC Hammer references. That's all I needed. Got three in there, right? That's all I needed. Yeah, it's going to be my level three lock. I love it. It's done. It's done. Level three lock. Hey, I'm tapping out. My man came with the Rihanna references for Rude Boy and then hit me with three MC Hammer references in the same breakdown. I love it. I'm sold. Sold, sold, sold. Level three lock right there. Chaos Williams, a.k.a. the Oxfighter, going up against the Rude Boy, Randy Brown.”
Randy Brown beat Khaos Williams by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) in a welterweight bout at UFC 274; Williams moneyline loses (Wikipedia UFC 274 results, corroborating official card). (Randy Brown def. Khaos Williams by split decision)
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Maple Leafs minus 140 with the take back plus 140 versus Tampa Bay. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so I'm watching the game. Jack and I are on the phone watching the Tampa Bay-Toronto game, and he said it like probably seven, eight minutes into the game. Jack's like, Tampa Bay just does not look right. Something's wrong here, and everything went wrong. I mean, they looked like they weren't interested. They weren't skating. maybe a little bit of a hangover after winning back-to-back Stanley Cups. But what really killed them was the power play. 0-5 on the main advantage, and they are dangerous. I mean, they have snipers. They move the puck really well. Their passing is so crisp. And at one point, they had also given up four high-quality chances on one single power play in the first period. Maybe, you know, they're a little bit worn out after playing so many playoff games the last couple years. But this team, I don't think, is done by any means. John Cooper, probably one of the best coaches in the NHL. You just have to know he going to wake this team up by moving forward because that was an absolute embarrassment How about this also And Andre Vaskolesky their goalie here he not lost consecutive playoff games in his last get this 48 playoff appearances dating all the way back to 2019 I don't think he had a great game by any stretch the other night, but I think he knows that even though his team didn't play well, I just think that it was too easy, maybe for the least. And sometimes, you know, just human nature. They're thinking, oh, okay, we can take this team. But I think that by being so easy that this Lightning team comes out, I'm not going to bet against them losing two games in a row, especially with all that playoff experience. The wrong team is favored here. Tampa Bay Lightning, Moneyline, plus 120. They even up the series here against Toronto tonight.”
TBL 5, TOR 3 — Tampa Bay Lightning beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5-3 in Game 2 of the East first round (Victor Hedman 4-point game); Lightning moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Miami minus 8.5 versus Philadelphia. Lee, break this one down. I want to hear this wrong team favorite action. Okay, so you know that I'm a Miami Heat season ticket award. Yes, I do. I've been about 100 times. It is tough to go against my Miami Heat, but you have to separate as a gambler, you know, your alliances to a team and your money. And like, for instance, University of Miami, big UM fan. But, hey, if I didn't go against them pretty much the last 20 years, I'd be living under a bridge. So you have to identify when it's a good situation for the other team. So the first game, the Lions, seven and a half. It was close. Most of the game, Miami had that late run. They win, I believe it was by 16. Now Philadelphia, they're just trying to extend the series. Joel Embiid is, in my opinion, the MVP. Some people might think otherwise here. So they have to adapt and change. What they did in the first game was they were trying to go after specific players' weaknesses. They were trying to go after Max Struess. They were trying to go after Tyler Hero on defense instead of running their offense, instead of driving the ball. And then if they get into the lane, you either shoot the shot or you dish it out to the open guy. So I think they're going to change their offensive philosophy here. They got out-rebounded, totally dominated on the boards. That's all effort. So like I said, sometimes that team that loses the first game gets blown out. They come back that second game. They fight hard. I'm not saying they're going to win the game, but I think this is a game that's going to go down to the wire. Eight and a half points is a lot here. Miami probably needs two of their big three to play well. They're going to need another domination from Bam. He's going to have to dominate like he did in the first game. Jimmy Butler hasn't been 100% healthy. He's playing. I don't know what they're going to get out of him. You know, Lowry out for game two. A lot of people are forgetting that. So, you know, Jimmy Butler has to bring the ball up a little bit more. Those ball handling responsibilities fall more on him. And Tyler Hero, I don't know if he can play as well as he played the other night, and he was just crowned the sixth man of the year. First time ever for a Heat player. I think Miami's really good, but eight and a half points, a lot in a second round game here. I'm taking the eight and a half here. Wrong team favorite. Philadelphia 76ers plus the 8.5 against my Miami Heat.”
MIA 119, PHI 103 — Miami Heat beat Philadelphia 76ers 119-103 in Game 2 of the East semifinals; 76ers lose by 16, failing to cover +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. We're going to roll the Kings. Team total over two and a half goals, minus 125 at Edmonton. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so the LA Kings are the youngest team in postseason this year. They don't have a single defenseman in the playoff lineup over the age of 27. They have some very limited playoff experience outside of Dustin Brown and a few other guys I just don and I didn know in game one if they would be able to manage the pace of the Edmonton Oilers during the playoffs. They did. And they did it very well. In terms of possession, Edmonton had an early edge in the first period, but the Kings actually own the post-season game and the possession game here the rest of the way. So they had 11-6 high danger chance advantage. And aside from two power play goals allowed, they really looked like the better team. One thing that they did that I liked, they forced Mike Smith to play the puck behind the net. Smith has always been a mobile goaltender who likes to play the puck behind the net and get his defenseman in a good place to start up ice. But it costs goalies sometimes, and he got caught late in the game giving another one away. And for him, these moments where he panics and turns the puck over are signs that he's just not very confident in stopping pucks. So he's overreacting, not making smart decisions, and just doesn't look comfortable. The Kings have a really smart coach in Todd McClellan, and I think he's going to capitalize on that. They're going to keep dumping pucks in and chasing with these young fast forwards. And I don't know that the Edmonton defense here can keep up with it. So I'm going to leave the L.A. Kings goaltending and their young defensive group out of this. I think they score three here in another wide open game. So a lot of different ways you can attack games. You can play a side. You can play a total. And I like playing team total sometimes gives you the biggest advantage. So we're going to go with a level two lock. L.A. Kings team total over two and a half goals, minus 125 versus the Edmonton Oilers tonight.”
LAK 0, EDM 6 — Edmonton Oilers shut out LA Kings 6-0 in Game 2 of the West first round (Mike Smith 30-save shutout); Kings team total stays under 2.5, the over loses (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline line for this one The Panthers minus one and a half goals plus 110 versus the Capitals. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so yesterday, or should I say last night, there were some surprising results. Carolina blew out Boston, who is red hot, five to one. And Toronto beat the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-0. So we're looking at, you know, like I said, sometimes some strange things happen, but I don't think so here. So the line is here on this game. I don't want to play the line, money line. I'm going to play Florida Panthers and lay the one-and-a-half goal because it returns $110 for every $100 you wager. A lot of people are wondering if the Florida Panthers are ready to take the next step to chase for that cup. They haven't won a playoff series. skipped this since 1995. They ran into an absolute juggernaut last year in Tampa in the playoffs, but their record and their offensive stats pretty much speak for themselves. This team's success is not a fluke. They obviously have the talent with Huberto, Barkoff, and Ryan Hart up front, but they also have the physicality this year that was lacking in a lot of the last couple seasons with Sam Bennett, Mackenzie Wieger. These guys will drop the gloves or hit with the best of them right now. Really, the Washington Capitals can only match the Florida Panthers here in those areas with one player. That's Alex Ovichan. So the problem here is he's hurt. He hasn't played since April 24th when he only played 14 minutes in that game. Even if he does play tonight, he's not going to be 100%. So how do they pull off an upset like this here in the playoffs? Goaltending. Well, their goaltending has been horrific of late. Their starter, get this, has his career worst-ever goals against average and save percentage this year, ranks 52nd out of 55 goalies in the NHL in high-danger save percentage. And guess who leads the league here in offensive high danger chances? Well, the Florida Panthers. I just see too many quality scoring opportunities and too many easy goals for the Panthers in this one. I think they come out and show that they're the real deal here. So, bet a little, win a whole lot. Florida Panthers, minus the one and a half goals, plus 110 over the Washington Capitals.”
WSH 4, FLA 2 — Washington Capitals beat Florida Panthers 4-2 in Game 1 of the East first round; Panthers lose outright, busting -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Rockies money line minus 148 versus the Nationals. Thoughts on this one, Lee? The Washington Nationals are just about as bad as we thought they'd be. Second worst record in the National League ahead of the Cincinnati Reds. It all comes down to pitching. They rank 29th out of 30 teams here in the ERA. Their bullpen, not much better, 24th. And they even rank 28th in ERA on the road. Eric Feedy. He's a guy that I've talked about before. Big part of that problem. Five 30s, 33-year rates since the start of last season. He's giving up a ton of home runs and fly ball base hits. As we know, with the altitude in Denver, this is not a recipe for success against the Rockies. In fact, his fly ball rate on batted baseballs has basically increased every single season since he entered Major League Baseball. I don't think people realize how well here the Rockies have played this year either. Fourth in the NL West, they're 13-9, but they're 9 here with a plus 20 run differential at home They got a night off Monday after the sweep over Cincinnati so they should have a full lineup not playing any backups here for this one I think this line is going to close minus 165 to minus 175. So I just think that I just love the matchup right here. And Nationals, outside of Juan Soto, I just don't think they have even enough to keep up tonight. So I think they're entirely outmatched here. So we're going to go with the blowout special. Colorado Rockies money line minus 148 here should be an easy win. You two games here, Q, you might be able to turn them off by in hockey after the second period and in baseball after the fifth or sixth inning. That's what I'm talking about. Sounds like an early night for your boy. That's what I'm talking about right there. Sounds like early night action. That's the blowout special. The Rockies against the Washington Nationals. The Rockies money line minus 148 here on Locked on Bet.”
WSH 10, COL 2 — Washington Nationals beat Colorado Rockies 10-2 (Erick Fedde 7 sharp innings, Bell and Soto homered); Rockies moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one is the Celtics minus 4.5 versus the Bucs. Break this one down for us. Yeah, and I stayed away from the first game. I just wanted to watch and see what was going to happen. And Giannis, I mean, Greek Freak really did a great job because they were swarming him, which I thought they would. So what does he do? He was passing the ball. He was finding the open guy. He was rebounding. And then when he had a little opening, well, he handed out an assist even to himself here when he threw it off the backboard and slammed it home. So people remember that here. I think the Celtics can rebound. You know, sometimes just have that one bad game. They shot 33% from the field. What did Milwaukee do? They did. what everyone thought Boston would do to Milwaukee. They would swarm the top scorer Jason Tatum not one of his better games 6 or 18 from the field Whereas Milwaukee they had a lot of help So Holiday you know guys like Grayson Allen those guys stepped up. Well, Boston, they didn't. And what we saw was guys like Jalen Brown just did not have a good game. Jalen Brown, I mean, 4 for 13 from the field. That's not good again. good enough here. Marcus Smart, three for 11. Horford, four for 11. The guys off the bench, Williams, White, two for six each, not going to be good enough. But I think they'll make some tweaks to the defense here. And I don't see them shooting 33% again. So I think this is going to be a fun game. You know, when you play other teams, you have to learn how to adapt. And Milwaukee, Once you get inside, the length that they have with Brook Lopez, Giannis, and also Bobby Portis, that's tough. So you adapt and you learn from it, and I think Boston is that good. So, hey, they shoot a little bit better from the outside. It's their game here. I'm going to lay the four and a half here. I think Boston evens up the series. This could end up being a series that goes seven games or maybe down to the last minute of the seventh game. So lay the four and a half here. Level two lock. Boston Celtics over the champion Milwaukee Bucs.”
BOS 109, MIL 86 — Boston Celtics beat Milwaukee Bucks 109-86 in Game 2 of the East semifinals (Jaylen Brown 30 pts); Celtics win by 23, covering -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Minnesota Wild minus 13 versus the Blues with the take back plus 120. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so Minnesota Wilds have not been able to get over the hump in the playoffs. So what did they do? They made a trade. They decided to bring on Vegas goalkeeper, guys one. And problem here is they don't know who they're going to go with. Did they go with Fleury or Talbot? So when you've got a problem going into the playoffs, who your number one goalkeeper is, I think that's a big problem. Blues don't have that problem. They've averaged 3.81 goals per game, and the defense has given up only 2.95 goals per game. Rarely do you see a team that has over almost a one-goal difference here. So the Wilds have been pretty good on offense, averaging 3.77 goals, but their defense, not very good at all, giving up over three goals a game, 3.07 goals per game. in the last couple games just absolutely falling apart. So when you have goalkeepers not having a save percentage above 900, that can be a problem here. I think their crowd and their fans always in big jittery. They're waiting for the roof to cave in here. The Blues have done it before here. Defense looked real strong of late here. I think the wrong team's favored here. I'm taking the Blues here. I think they get the job done in Minneapolis.”
STL 4, MIN 0 — St. Louis Blues beat Minnesota Wild 4-0 (David Perron hat trick, Ville Husso 37-save shutout); Blues moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Yankees minus 110 versus the Blue Jays. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, I think these are the best two teams here in the AL East, and I think it's going to come down maybe the last week of the season. They split a four-game season pretty much to start the season. And now you've got two teams playing really well. But everything Toronto's doing, Yankees are doing better now. Hitting Aaron Judge. I mean, his 453-put bomb that he unloaded on was a thing of beauty to watch. Pitching got another great effort from a starting pitcher. In fact, this is a team, you talk about pitching. They have an AL best 270 ERA. The bullpen and the starters have the exact same ERA. You don't see that happen too often. So you're looking at balance here, bullpen not too taxed here, hitting. You know, I mentioned Judge, you know, looking up and down the lineup. I mean, their guys are absolutely just knocking the ball out of the ballpark. They playing good baseball even stealing bases moving runners You don see that too often with this team but you know the entire lineup I mean really almost one through nine is hitting So Toronto's doing well. But like I said, their ERA, their batting average, just not at the Yankees level here. I'm not going to go against a team that's won nine straight, even on the road here. I'm going to lay the 110 here. Blowout special. New York Yankees over Toronto.”
NYY 3, TOR 2 — New York Yankees beat Toronto Blue Jays 3-2, with Gleyber Torres delivering the go-ahead hit in the 9th; Yankees moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Phoenix minus 5.5 versus the Mavs. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so some people might have been surprised that Dallas won that series against Utah. I wasn't. I mean, we had talked about it the last couple weeks of the season, the slide of Utah. You know, talent-wise, he had had some guys go out with injuries that weren't 100%. But you could just see mentally, this was a different team. Dallas, Jalen Brunson, he stepped up. He's going to be a guy that really propels this Dallas team going forward. But I think they're up against it here. Take nothing away from Luka. They want to have a slow-paced though. He's not running up and down this court sprinting with his injury coming back. I think they want to go more half court, but it's going to be tough here. I think Phoenix will push the tempo sometimes, and I think we're going to see maybe a little bit of a change up here. And why do I say that? I think you look at the backcourts, both of these two teams. I don't think the backcourts can slow down the other backcourt, but I think Phoenix is going to make a change because I think their coaching has been good. I think they play well as a team here, And I think you're going to see them put, at least in key moments, and for sure the last four or five minutes of the game, Macau Bridges, I think they're going to put him on Luka. And if they can slow Luka down, this Dallas team really doesn't have any interior play here. Phoenix, you look at every position, you go, oh, that's a guy that won a point guard. You'd like to have Chris Paul. You'd like to have a center like they have. You'd like to have a bench like they have. So I still think Dallas is a player or two away. They're also missing Tim Hardaway Jr. That's a problem, his scoring. So, hey, I think Dallas is good. Give them credit here. But I think they might be up against the NBA champs. So I'm going to lay the five and a half points here in game one. Phoenix Suns level one lock here over the Dallas Mavericks”
PHX 121, DAL 114 — Phoenix Suns beat Dallas Mavericks 121-114 in Game 1 of the West semifinals; Suns win by 7, covering -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take the wrong fighter favorite. We're going here with Gerald Mershaw, plus 145. I think he takes the money here.”
On the UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera card, Gerald Meerschaert's opponent was Krzysztof Jotko (misheard as "Christophe Jaco" in the pick), who won by unanimous decision (30-27 x3); Meerschaert's moneyline pick lost.
“So we're going to go here with a blowout special. New York Yankees lay the one and a half runs, minus 115. They blow out the Kansas City Royals.”
KC 2, NYY 12 — Yankees beat Royals 12-2; New York's +10 margin covers the -1.5 run line (ESPN box score).
“Bet a little when a whole lot. Buffalo Savers for every $100 you wager can return a plus 265 big ones here. I think they're going to upset Boston tonight.”
BOS 5, BUF 0 — Bruins shut out Sabres 5-0; Buffalo's moneyline pick lost (ESPN box score).
“Wrong team favorite. We're going with the Dallas Mavericks tonight, plus the one point against the Utah Jazz.”
UTAH 96, DAL 98 — Mavericks beat Jazz 98-96 in Game 6; Dallas's +2 margin covers the +1 line (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with a blowout special. Minnesota Wild, money line, minus 118. They get the bacon tonight.”
MIN 3, CGY 2 — Wild beat Flames 3-2 in overtime; Minnesota's moneyline pick won (ESPN box score).
“I'm laying the four points. I think they're going to knock off the homestanding Birmingham Stallions here. I'm laying the four. I think they're by far the best team right now. We're going to New Orleans Breakers here as a level one lock over the Birmingham Stallions, 8 o'clock primetime Saturday night.”
BHAM 22, NO 13 — Birmingham Stallions beat New Orleans Breakers 22-13; New Orleans lost outright, missing the -4 line.
“BetOnline.net line for this one is Milwaukee minus 12 versus Chicago. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so everyone is saying Milwaukee Bucs. Easy. It's over. They're going to be facing the Boston Celtics. But I have a feeling this is going to be a tight game. Why do I say that? We saw it last night, Miami Heat. I mentioned, you know, Jimmy Butler. No, he's out with knee inflammation. We had also Kyle Lowry out. So two guys were out, you know, two of their starting five, their best player, and people are saying, oh, they can't win that game. What happens? They find a way to win. He's talking about NBA caliber players. Guys coming off the bench can do the job. So watch my Twitter during the day. The line has not come out. I rarely play player props. I'm going to play Kobe White. I think he's going to step up. I think he the guy that going to have a big game here tonight So I think the player prop is going to be I hoping seven eight maybe nine points I think he going to go for double digits easy I don think that going to be a problem So, hey, will Milwaukee get Grayson Allen, go for 27 and 22 like the last two games? I think that's highly unlikely. I just, you know, it's human nature. You get a team like Milwaukee, they're thinking, hey, we probably got this thing in hand here, a little bit of a letdown. teams just will come out and fight tooth and nail because like I said, guys that are of that caliber you don't realize the difference and there's not much difference between a good guy off the bench and a starter I'm going to go with Kobe White if the numbers look good so follow me on Twitter Paramount Sports today if I see a good number I'll let you know I'm going to release it so one of the things that I'm following here, remember Chris Middleton still out so that could hurt them there and uh just think that uh you're gonna see a team here in chicago also you know vukovic i think he's he's not played well late you know he only had i think like 11 or 12 points last game i think he'll rebound so like i said these guys are professionals they take a lot of pride here 12 points is too much here wrong team favorite i'm going with the chicago bulls plus the double digit points”
MIL 116, CHI 100 — Bucks beat Bulls 116-100 in Game 5; Chicago's -16 margin misses the +12 line (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with a blowout special. Miami Marlins money line minus 140 over the hapless Washington team here today.”
WSH 1, MIA 2 — Marlins beat Nationals 2-1; Miami's moneyline pick won (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with a level two lock. Chicago Blackhawks, team total over two and a half goals, minus 110 against the Vegas Golden Knights.”
CHI 4, VGK 3 (SO) — Blackhawks scored 3 goals in regulation/OT (2 in the 1st, 1 in the 2nd) before winning 4-3 in a shootout over the Golden Knights; either count clears the 2.5 team-total line (ESPN box score).
“neither team is afraid of being plus money here. The wrong team is favored. Nashville wins, again, in a close one, 3-2. So, like I said, I think we're going to see a preview of what we're going to see in the playoff between two teams. And it's going to be close. But you've got to take that plus money, plus 120 at home.”
NSH 4, CGY 5 — Flames beat Predators 5-4 in overtime; Nashville's moneyline pick lost (ESPN box score).
“The Shy Sox here, money line, minus 145. Blowout special here over the Kansas City Royals.”
CHW 0, KC 6 — Royals shut out White Sox 6-0; Chicago's moneyline pick lost (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the six points here. This is going to be a level two lock on Tuesday. We're going to go with the Memphis Grizzlies here, minus the six.”
MEM 111, MIN 109 — Grizzlies beat Timberwolves 111-109 in Game 5; Memphis's +2 margin falls short of the -6 line (ESPN box score).
“Bet a little, win a whole lot. We're going to go with Jared Gordon, Flash, plus the 135. I think he takes down Grant Dawson here on Saturday night.”
Grant Dawson submitted Jared Gordon via rear-naked choke in round 3 (4:11) at UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera, so the Gordon moneyline pick lost.
“so I'm going here with a blowout special. I think we're going to see the Dallas Mavericks take a commanding 3-2 lead over the fading Utah Jazz here. We're going to go with a blowout special. Dallas Mavericks minus three over the Utah Jazz tonight.”
DAL 102, UTAH 77 — Mavericks beat Jazz 102-77 in Game 5; Dallas's +25 margin covers the -3 line (ESPN box score).
“So I'm laying the one point here. Level one lock, Brooklyn Nets over the Boston Celtics tonight.”
BKN 112, BOS 116 — Celtics beat Nets 116-112 in Game 4; Brooklyn lost outright, missing the -1 line (ESPN box score).
“I think the wrong team's favorite. I'm going with Chicago Bulls here, plus the points. Wrong team favored. The defending champion, Milwaukee Bucks, are going to go down 2-1 after this game tonight. Whoa, that's a big one right there. That's a big one. But, again, injuries are going to play a major role. And Middleton, I think, is going to play a factor, a big-time factor with his injuries. So there you go. Bucks and the Bulls. WTF, the wrong team favored. Lee said, take the points and take Chicago. BetOnline.net line for that one was the Bucs minus three versus the Bulls.”
MIL 111, CHI 81 — Bucks beat Bulls 111-81 in Game 3; Chicago lost by 30, well outside the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with a blowout special, the Minnesota Wild, minus the one-and-a-half goals, minus 120, 120, looking for a blowout over the Kraken.”
MIN 6, SEA 3 — Wild beat Kraken 6-3; Minnesota's +3 margin covers the -1.5 goal line (ESPN box score).
“We're going with Triple P. Preston pressure Parsons laying the 125, gets it done over Evan Elder here in the UFC on Saturday night. That's going to be a level two lock.”
Preston Parsons defeated Evan Elder by unanimous decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade.
“Level one lock. Seattle Mariners money line minus 124 over the Texas Strangers.”
TEX 8, SEA 6 — Texas beat Seattle 8-6 on a ninth-inning go-ahead RBI double, ending a Rangers losing streak; Mariners moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. mark andre beery all minus 175 versus the beverly hills ninja right let us know break this one down for us lee how you feeling it so i'm feeling it that the beverly hills ninja stinks i mean i'm just gonna come right out and say it um better than i am but uh i don't think he belongs i don't think he's going to be in the ufc uh after he loses another one or two more fights um he gets out there and what he does is he just likes to scrap and some decent power but i'm noting poor footwork horrendous defense no cardio if he goes past round one and he i just think the burial is going to wear him down take him down and submit him here or ground and pound finish here so um burial is not normally a knockout guy but um the only way that that the beverly hills ninja can win this fight is probably a knockout in the first minute. If, if Barry out can survive the first minute and a lucky punch by, by the Beverly Hills Ninja, I think this fight is all his. I think the Beverly Hills Ninja trains at a poor gym dynamics, MMA and LA. In fact, the Beverly Hills Ninja is their best fighter. So do you want to take it serious? You got to move to a good gym where you get some really good trainers, where you're fighting and practicing here against better fighters here. So I just think Barry Allen's just a much better, more accomplished fighter here. I think he wins this one easy here. So we're going to go with a level two lock here. We're going to go with Bill Barr and just think that he's going to be one of these guys that just dominates all day and night long. We're going to go with Barry Allen. He's going to win over the Beverly Hills Ninja level two lock.”
Marc-André Barriault submitted Jordan Wright via first-round guillotine choke (2:36) at UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade; Barriault moneyline cashes (Wikipedia event page).
“So take the hint. We're going to lay the one and a half points. Hint, hint, it will be on my card for even my client, a client card play here. I just think Memphis just has too many things going for him here. Jaws, I think, is going to have a big game here. Lay the one and a half. Not a level one. Not a level two. Level three lock Memphis over Minnesota tonight.”
MEM 104, MIN 95 — Memphis beat Minnesota 104-95 in Game 3 behind Desmond Bane's seven 3-pointers, a margin of 9; covers the -1.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“Bet a little, win a whole lot. Arizona Coyotes money line plus 145.”
CHI 4, ARI 3 — Chicago beat Arizona 4-3 in overtime; Coyotes moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm taking three-and-a-half points here. Wrong team favorite. I'm back in the Brooklyn Nets tonight.”
BOS 114, BKN 107 — Boston beat Brooklyn 114-107 in Game 2 for a 2-0 series lead, a margin of -7 for Brooklyn; falls short of the +3.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“So we're going to go here with a level unlock. Toronto Blue Jays money line minus 125.”
TOR 6, BOS 1 — Toronto beat Boston 6-1 behind a five-run second inning; Blue Jays moneyline cashes (ESPN scoreboard).
“So I'm going to take the take back here, plus 103. I'm going to say wrong fighter favorite here. I'm going with El Nino Claudio Puelas here. Small upset here over the Carpenter.”
Claudio Puelles submitted Clay Guida via kneebar in round one (3:01) at UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade; Puelles moneyline cashes (Wikipedia event page).
“So we're going to go over six total goals, minus 113. St. Louis Blues, Boston Bruins, blowout special.”
BOS 3, STL 2 — Boston beat St. Louis 3-2 in overtime, a combined 5 goals; falls under the 6 total (ESPN scoreboard).
“Philadelphia Phillies, money line, minus 120 over Colorado here. Another blowout special.”
COL 6, PHI 5 — Colorado beat Philadelphia 6-5 on a go-ahead three-run homer in the 7th; Phillies moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm going to go with a lock, a level two lock. Phoenix Suns minus just nine and a half over the New Orleans Pelicans.”
NO 125, PHX 114 — New Orleans beat Phoenix 125-114 in Game 2 after Devin Booker's injury, a margin of -11 for Phoenix; falls short of the -9.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“Bet a little. Went a whole lot. Colorado Avalanche, minus one and a half goals, plus 125. over the Washington Capitals.”
WSH 3, COL 2 — Washington beat Colorado 3-2, snapping the Avalanche's win streak; Colorado's margin of -1 falls short of the -1.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“I like Toronto here, plus seven and a half against Philly. I think this game goes right down the wire here. Wrong team favored. Toronto, take all those gorgeous points against the Philadelphia 76ers.”
PHI 112, TOR 97 — Philadelphia beat Toronto 112-97 in Game 2, a margin of -15 for the Raptors; falls short of the +7.5 spread (Wikipedia, 2022 NBA playoffs).
“I'm laying the five points here. Tampa Bay Bandits here over the Pittsburgh Maulers. Blowout special.”
TB 17, PIT 3 — Tampa Bay beat Pittsburgh 17-3 in USFL Week 1, a margin of 14; covers the -5 spread (Wikipedia, 2022 USFL season).
“So we're going to go over five and a half goals, minus 115. Montreal, New York Islanders game. That's my hidden gem.”
NYI 3, MTL 0 — New York Islanders shut out Montreal 3-0, a combined 3 goals; falls under the 5.5 total (ESPN scoreboard).
“We'll go with the Cleveland Guardians here. Moneyline plus 131 over the San Francisco Giants. Wrong team favorite.”
SF 4, CLE 1 — San Francisco beat Cleveland 4-1 at Progressive Field; Guardians moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“I like Atlanta. I'm laying the small spot here. Minus the two. Blowout special. The Atlanta Hawks are going to win this game.”
ATL 107, CLE 101 — Atlanta beat Cleveland 107-101 in the East play-in game, a margin of 6; covers the -2 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. the Mongolian Knight, minus 117, versus Crash Kroom with the take back of plus 155. Thoughts on this one, Lee? I think of Crash Davis, right, from the movie Bulldarm. There you go. Yeah, that's a good one. That's a good one. That comes to mind. So this is the first fight on the card here. It starts at 530 Eastern. So I always get, there's always a couple stragglers. You're like, oh, has the, you know, the first fight started? I like yeah you already missed one or two fights 530 Eastern to start for this card So we got Alatang who is okay a 30 fighter and originally from China 5 66 reach So you're saying, okay, you know, with a guy that, you know, that kind of weight, that's about normal, maybe a little bit light. But Kroom is 5'11 with a 73-inch reach advantage. So he's got, like I said, 7-inch reach advantage here. This is Kroom's first fight at 135. He's already fought at 155 and 145 in prior bouts. In fact, he had a first-round submission at 155 but was disqualified. He failed a drug test. but he lost to two real good guys before that, Brian Kelleher and Alex Caceres. In fact, in the Kelleher fight, he was a late replacement that week. So that's a big, big problem here. So with that 6-inch height advantage, 7-inch reach advantage, I think it's going to be a stand-up battle here. I even think Kroom is going to miss weight. I think he might end up at 137, 138. And if that's the case, so, hey, he gives it back a little bit, you know, of his purse, but not going to affect whether I think he wins or loses the fight. So he's a huge 135-pound fighter here, and I'm going to go with him. I think – I don't know how he's going to win exactly, whether it's going to be a KO, whether it's going to be submission, or even a unanimous decision. But I think he takes it here. So he's a big underdog, plus 155. You don't get those too often. So I think the better fighter here, wrong team favorite in this one here, wrong fighter favorite. We're going to go with a level two lock to end the week and hopefully get us a winning week. Oh, there it is right there. Going to knock out the week with a knockout, you know, possibly a knockout in this fight. And it's funny, you mentioned when you think of Crash. When I think of Crash being in Las Vegas, I think about what I see all the time. You know, some folks that don't really know how to drive, but that's a whole other podcast for a whole other day.”
Alateng Heili beat Kevin Croom by first-round TKO (punches, 0:47) at UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2; Croom moneyline busts (Wikipedia event page).
“Wrong team favorite. Vegas Golden Knights plus 138 tonight.”
VGK 6, CGY 1 — Vegas Golden Knights beat Calgary 6-1 on the road; moneyline cashes (ESPN scoreboard).
“So we're going to go with a blowout special here. Boston Bruins minus one and a half goals, minus 105 over the helpless Ottawa Senators.”
BOS 2, OTT 3 — Ottawa beat Boston 3-2; the Bruins lost outright, let alone covering -1.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm going to lay the 200. I'm going to go with the Philadelphia 76ers. I think they advance on to face the winner of Miami, whoever Miami plays, either the Atlanta Hawks or the Cleveland Cavaliers. So lay the 200 here. Level two lock Philadelphia 76ers minus the 200 here. over the Toronto Raptors.”
Philadelphia beat Toronto 4-2 in the 2022 NBA first-round series, taking Game 6 132-97 (Wikipedia, 2022 NBA playoffs).
“I'm laying the one and a half goals here, plus 100. blowout special Colorado big over the LA Kings I see this game 4-5 or 6-1”
Colorado 9-LA Kings 3 — The Colorado Avalanche beat the LA Kings 9-3; Colorado -1.5 covers, winning by 6 (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm laying the five here. we're going to go with another blowout special, Atlanta over Charlotte,”
Atlanta 132-Charlotte 103 — The Atlanta Hawks beat the Charlotte Hornets 132-103 in the play-in game; Hawks -5 covers, winning by 29 (ESPN game recap/scoreboard).
“So we're going to go. We're going to take it easy. Level one lock. Chicago White Sox. minus one 107 money line over the Seattle Mariners.”
Chicago White Sox 6-Seattle 4 — The Chicago White Sox beat the Seattle Mariners 6-4; the White Sox moneyline covers (ESPN game recap/scoreboard).
“We're going to go with a level two lock over five and a half goals, minus 110 in the Nashville-San Jose game.”
Nashville 1-San Jose 0 — The Nashville Predators beat the San Jose Sharks 1-0 in overtime, a combined 1 goal, well under the posted total of 5.5; the over loses (ESPN scoreboard).
“We're going with a blowout special. Let's lay the one and a half runs, get a nice take back on it, plus 125. the Rangers here over the Rockies.”
Texas 1-Colorado 4 — The Colorado Rockies beat the Texas Rangers 4-1; Rangers -1.5 fails to cover, losing by 3 (ESPN scoreboard).
“So I'm going here with the L.A. Clippers plus three and a half points. Wrong team favored over the T-Wolves.”
Minnesota 109-LA Clippers 104 — The Minnesota Timberwolves beat the LA Clippers 109-104 in the play-in game; Clippers +3.5 fails to cover, losing by 5 (ESPN game recap/scoreboard).
“So, bet a little, win a whole lot on the Phoenix Suns, plus 275 to win the NBA championship.”
The Phoenix Suns were eliminated by the Dallas Mavericks in the 2022 Western Conference semifinals; the Golden State Warriors won the championship, so the futures bet on Phoenix loses (Wikipedia, 2022 NBA playoffs).
“Wrong team favorite. Montreal Canadiens, money line, plus 127. over the winnipeg jets”
Winnipeg 4-Montreal 2 — The Winnipeg Jets beat the Montreal Canadiens 4-2; the Canadiens moneyline loses (ESPN scoreboard).
“So we're going to go with the San Francisco Giants money line, minus 140, blowout special over the San Diego Padres.”
San Francisco 2-San Diego 4 — The San Diego Padres beat the San Francisco Giants 4-2; the Giants moneyline loses (ESPN game recap/scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Hurricanes, minus 175 versus the Islanders, and the take back is plus 155. What are your thoughts on this one? So the most important thing before you study lines this time of year in hockey and the NBA is you've got to know where teams are situated either in the playoff hunt or if they're outside the playoff hunt. And here we have the Carolina Hurricanes. They're locked into one of the top spots in the East while the Islanders are fighting for that last spot to get into postseason. And Hurricanes are going to end up as either the top or the number two seed here in their division. And so I really don't think they care. who they face in the first round. So I think they're coasting. They've lost three of the last five and just barely escaped Buffalo last night. So they're on a back-to-back here coming into this one. The Islanders, on the other hand, very small chance of catching the Capitals for the final spot in the East. And there finally was a little bit of desperation into their game They going how about this People don realize how good they been of late 11 last 16 games with a plus 18 goal differential And what I like about this one here is they're coming off a loss. When you're a team fighting for your last hope of making the playoffs, you take a brutal loss like they did to Dallas the other night, and you know they're going to come out here and give it all they got. So I think they've got all the motivation to the Islanders. Carolina just 3-7 the last 10 on back-to-backers. Important to study how teams do back-to-back. There's some great teams that don't do well and also some teams that don't do so well that do great on back-to-backers. So I think that Carolina is just going to sleepwalk here in this one. Wrong team favored. I'm going with a New York Islanders money line, wrong team favored, over the Carolina Hurricanes.”
NY Islanders 2-Carolina 1 — The New York Islanders beat the Carolina Hurricanes 2-1; the Islanders moneyline covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Biggie Boy minus 150 versus Ty Boer. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So everyone loves the heavyweights. Why? Because you get to see a lot of action. You get to see a lot more knockouts than the smaller weight division. So what you have here is heavyweight division, second to last fight of the preliminary card of pay-per-view UFC 273. You don't have to pay to watch this one. So biggie boy Rosenstruck is facing Ty Burr. Rosenstruck is a 145 to 150 favorite, has some serious power, 6-3 UFC record with all his wins by TKO or KO. His three losses to fighters ranked currently top five in the division. Gagne, Francis Ngannou, and also Blade. So 36-year-old Ty Burra, UFC record of 9-6. But Ty Burra's path to victory has mostly been through his ability to take down the lower-rated fighters and out-decision them with a few stoppages along the way. He's 1-4 versus the current top 15 heavyweights with his only win coming against Walt Harris, who should not be ranked in my opinion. Ty Burra has traditionally struggled against big power punchers. Ty Burra may be able to get an early takedown in control of Rosenstruck, but I think it's going to be for a short time. And here's something really interesting. Ty Burra 0-16 in takedowns in his last fight against Alexander Volkov, who I saw in London who got submitted in round one just a couple weeks ago. So Rosenstruck has a 75% takedown defense. Biggie boy, though not heavier. They're both right at pretty much the limit here. I just think he's bigger and stronger, has that one-punch KO power. So all this adds up to a very bad night here for Ty Borah. we're going to go with the pride of Suriname biggie boy Rosenstruck here as he will take out Ty Burra as Howard Cosell I mean the announcer would yell down goes Ty Burra that Rosenstruck is one biggie boy”
The Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Marcin Tybura bout scheduled for UFC 273 was pulled from the card after Tybura withdrew due to illness; the fight never happened, so the moneyline is void (Wikipedia, UFC 273).
“So we're going to go with a level one lock here, under 8.5 plus 105, Washington Nationals, New York Mets tonight.”
Washington 3-NY Mets 7 — The New York Mets beat the Washington Nationals 7-3, a combined 10 runs, which is over the posted total of 8.5; the under loses (ESPN game recap/scoreboard).
“So we're going to go here with a Utah Jazz laying the two and a half points over the Phoenix Suns. level two lock to finish out the week”
Phoenix 111-Utah 105 — The Phoenix Suns beat the Utah Jazz 111-105; Jazz -2.5 fails to cover, losing by 6 (ESPN game recap/scoreboard).
“We'll take Brooks Koepka here, plus 127 over Rory McIlroy to have the better score.”
Rory McIlroy shot 73 (+1) in Round 1 of the 2022 Masters, beating Brooks Koepka's 75 (+3); Koepka's bet to have the lower score loses (Wikipedia, 2022 Masters Tournament). (McIlroy 73, Koepka 75)
“So we're going to take him a 23-1 to win the Masters. Cameron Smith here. Bet a little. Win a whole lot.”
Scottie Scheffler won the 2022 Masters at 278 (-10); Cameron Smith tied for 3rd at 283 (-5), so the futures bet on Smith to win loses (Wikipedia, 2022 Masters Tournament).
“Blowout special Tampa Bay probably 4 over the Washington Capitals There it is right there Blowout special The Lightning and the Capitals Again the Lightning money line minus 133”
WSH 4-TB 3 — The Washington Capitals beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3; the Lightning moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Mavs, minus nine versus Detroit. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so these two teams are locked in. Dallas right now, I just believe that they like where they are. Where are they? They're sitting number four. They are a game back of Golden State. They don't want to be three and have to play Denver in the first round. They stay four. Who do they play? The Utah Jazz, who is stumbling and bumbling. Donovan Mitchell's talk that he wants out. I think he's going to get traded in the offseason. So Dallas wants to stay here. I think that they're going to rest players. People think of them as this high-scoring team. Well, they're not. They're just not a high-scoring team. I know that they've won four of the last five games. They even beat Milwaukee. But I think this is the game where they relax. They're 26 in scoring. That's right, 26. Everything gets 107 points. But their defense, that's where they get it done on defense. They're second in the NBA holding opponents just a little over 104 points per game. So I think Detroit, which is playing extremely well here, I expect them to continue. They've got one of their top players, Zeke Bay, playing at a high level. Seems like scoring 30-plus points almost every single game out now. I know they're not a high-scoring team, but of late they are. He and Cade Cunningham look really good together. I think they're building for the future. They're covering. So they are right now 20-12-1 as a home underdog this season. And actually cover this red. Get this 19 the last 22 games overall. I'm taking the points here. Wrong team favorite. Detroit Pistons here over the Dallas Mavericks.”
Dallas 131-Detroit 113 — The Dallas Mavericks beat the Detroit Pistons 131-113; Pistons +9 fails to cover, losing by 18 (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Suns, we're going to do a total here when it comes to the Suns and the Clippers. Total 227. Are we going over or under on this one, Lee? So you're seeing this total and you're like, wow. The Clippers are scoring. In fact, the last four games, 121 points, 130, 153, and 119 points. And then you look at Phoenix, first place, high scoring team. But there's a big if. Both teams are locked into the position. Phoenix, eight games above Memphis. So they'll be the number one seed in the West. And the Clippers are stuck in the eighth spot. So they're in the play-in tournament. They are five and a half games behind Minnesota and four ahead of New Orleans. I think both teams are going to play their backups. They'll even go into not even the second team, the third team, and play guys that normally don't even hit the court. So we're going to see low shooting percentages. The reason this number is so low, it's for a reason. I think you're going to see just a game where guys in both teams, probably high 30s, low 40s as far as shooting percentage. So what does that mean? We're going under this game. So if it looks too good to be true, you see a number like, wow, what are they seeing? Why have it so low? It's too low for a reason here. So we're going to go under the posted total in the Clippers and Phoenix game here. level two lock there it is right there level two lock the suns and the clippers going under the total of 227”
LA Clippers 113-Phoenix 109 — The LA Clippers beat the Phoenix Suns 113-109, a combined 222 points, which is under the posted total of 227 (ESPN scoreboard).
“So I'm going to go with the underdog here, home dog here. I like the Chicago Bulls. Plus five and a half. Wrong team favorite.”
MIL 127, CHI 106 — Milwaukee beat Chicago 127-106; Bulls +5.5 lost by 21 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to go over 83-and-a-half wins minus 115 here. Blowout special here. I think this is just one of those bets here. You can root all season long. You're watching some late-night baseball action. Maybe you don't have action on one of the games here, but you can be watching and rooting your total here win all season long, just like we gave out Toronto Blue Jays to win the division, plus almost 400. That is a great value play, and like I said, something you can follow all season long, blowout special. Seattle Mariners go way over the total.”
90-72 — The Seattle Mariners finished the 2022 season 90-72, clearing the 83.5 win total (ESPN final standings).
“So we're going to go with a level two lock. New York Rangers money line minus 145 over the Devils.”
NYR 3, NJ 1 — New York Rangers beat New Jersey 3-1 on the road; Rangers moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with bet a little, win a whole lot. L.A. Kings plus 155 tonight over the Calgary Flames.”
CGY 3, LAK 2 — Calgary beat the LA Kings 3-2 on the road; Kings moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Let go with the underdog here Wrong team favored North Carolina wins another national title plus the four points over Kansas”
KU 72, UNC 69 — Kansas beat North Carolina 72-69 in the national championship; UNC +4 lost by only 3, covering the spread (ESPN/Wikipedia results).
“So bet it now we're going to go with a level three lock San Francisco giants over 85 and a half wins minus 110.”
81-81 — The San Francisco Giants finished the 2022 season 81-81, under the 85.5 win total (ESPN final standings).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Chicago Cubs win total, under 75.5 wins, plus 105 is how we're rolling.”
74-88 — The Chicago Cubs finished the 2022 season 74-88, under the 75.5 win total (ESPN final standings).
“BetOnline line for this one We going to do another total here How about this one Over 239 total points for the Nuggets and the Timberwolves Break this one down for us, Lee. Not a lot of defense here by either team. I think both teams are pretty much, you know, right now they're happy that they're going to be sitting and going to the playoffs. They're going to be in the top six, it looks like. And you look at the Minnesota defense, as of late, just not good at all. In fact, two of the last, actually three of the last four games, they've given up at least 125 points in a game. In fact, in the last month, they've also given up 139 in another game. So I think this is a game that's going to be wide open. There's also big time scoring on both sides. Denver, not much better. In fact, over the last 8 to 10 games, they've given up 124, 127, and even 140 games at home to Phoenix. So if a total is that high, it's that high for a reason. You can almost play the lowest total under and the highest total over in the NBA every day and win close to 60%. So it's not exciting. People don't love playing totals. But I think Djokic is going to have a huge advantage here over anything he's going to face for Minnesota. Not just shooting, just great passing. And Minnesota, you know, they got that scoring here with Edwards, Towns, and Russell. Both those guys playing well over the last month. So let's go with over 239.5 points here. We're going to call it our blowout special. They might even hit 250, 260 here. Man, you get some points. You get some points. You get some points. Everybody's scoring in this game right here. Over 239.5 points right there.”
MIN 136, DEN 130 — Minnesota beat Denver 136-130; the combined 266 points clears the 239.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Just like last night, we're going to go with the underdog, Coastal Carolina, plus three, level one lock.”
85-74 — Fresno State beat Coastal Carolina 85-74 in the 2022 Basketball Classic championship; Coastal Carolina +3 lost by 11 (Wikipedia tournament results).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Chicago minus 3.5 versus the Clippers. Thoughts on this one, Lee? And Chicago started off the season great. I mean, they were probably the story the first half of the season. That offense was almost unstoppable. But now teams have figured them out, and they just don't play enough defense. And what do the late Clippers do here? They played defense ranked 11th in the league and now all of a sudden Paul George is back and they not putting him on or 20 you know time limit that he allowed to play What they doing is allowed him to get out there and play because he was 100% healthy when he came back. He scored 34 points in the last game in 30 minutes. If you haven't missed a bunch of layups, he scores over 40. So what that's allowing Reggie Jackson to do is allowing him to spot up and shoot, and all of a sudden he looks like a different player. So I just love this Clippers defense here. They play hard. Yeah, people are going to play Chicago here. They'll look at the flash, they'll look at, you know, the Rosen, they'll look at all the weapons they have. They just don't have depth, and they don't have a defensive stopper, and they also don't hit the offensive glass here. Give me the L.A. Clippers plus the points here. Wrong team favorite.”
CHI 135, LAC 130 — Chicago beat the LA Clippers 135-130 in overtime; Clippers +3.5 lost by 5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take the four-and-a-half points here. I think it's a great situational play here. I like Xavier. I think they're the right side. So you've got to know when to get on and get off the team. I'm going to ride Xavier and finally get off Texas A&M.”
73-72 — Xavier beat Texas A&M 73-72 in the NIT championship, an outright win that easily covers +4.5 (ESPN/Wikipedia results).
“We're going to go over 132. Kansas Villanova, the first game at 6.05 on Saturday night. We're going to make it a level two lock.”
KU 81, VILL 65 — Kansas beat Villanova 81-65 in the Final Four; combined 146 points clears the 132 total (ESPN/Wikipedia results).
“So we're going to go with bet a little, win a whole lot on the Toronto Blue Jays plus 185 to win the Eastern Division over the overrated Yankees and also the overrated Boston Red Sox.”
NYY 99-63, TOR 92-70 — The New York Yankees won the 2022 AL East at 99-63; Toronto Blue Jays finished second at 92-70, so the futures bet loses (ESPN final standings).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Boston minus five versus the Heat. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so I think the public's going to be on Boston for two reasons. Number one, playing some really good basketball in Miami Heat right now, except for the last game where they blew out an undermanned Sacramento team without their best two players by 23 points Feels that Boston a team that surging right now and the Heat is faltering But this is where the Heat loves to be They love to play the underdog role. And, yeah, I know that they didn't score above 92 points in the two games this year that Boston won. But there's a big but. Robert Williams was manning the center position. You don't know who Robert Williams is? Well, he's a starting center for Boston. It's going to be out probably another three to four weeks. Torn meniscus. Had to have surgery on it. And how good was Robert Williams? Well, only the number one defender in the NBA. He allows his opponent, who he's guarding, under 40% shooting percentage. No one in the NBA, not one other person, can match that type of ranking here. Yeah, they have the number one defense, but without him, I think they're in trouble. The Heat's healthy. That's Jimmy Butler. Jimmy Butler blowing up. That's Jimmy. Jimmy does that once or twice a year. You just happen to see it on TV, and it happened to last a little bit longer than normal. So, Tyler Hero's back. They've been having guys that have been bumped and bruised and out of the lineup and COVID. This is their first time. Maybe the second time from one to three games, they've got everyone together. wrong team favored i like the miami heat over the boston celtics you might even want to sprinkle some miami heat money line here there it is right there i like it man it's a heck of a game heck of”
MIA 106, BOS 98 — Miami Heat beat Boston 106-98 outright, well clear of the +5 line (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. the Raptors minus three versus the Timberwolves Thoughts on this one Lee So a lot of people don realize this Toronto is almost locked in to the sixth spot I know they just one game ahead of Cleveland, but Cleveland is floundering. They've lost six of the last ten. Toronto's won eight of the last ten, so they look like they're probably going to be in the play-in tournament if they continue to win. They're coached extremely well. You play Toronto, you're going to have to execute, you're going to have to make changes because they are that prepared. Minnesota, sitting seventh. It's going to be tough for them to get into the sixth position and avoid the play-in tournament because they're two games behind Denver. So, you know, it's only really six, seven games going left for both of these teams here. So here's the problem. And everyone thinks, well, Minnesota's got offense, but they're missing one of their key defensive guys. Who is this defensive guy? Malik Beasley. And people will look and they'll say, well, you know, he only averages 12 points a game. Well, the difference here is Malik Beasley plays really good defense. It's really probably the big four there with him. Everyone knows Towns and everyone knows Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell. But Malik Beasley, when these four guys play together, they're usually very successful. So don't just look at how many points a player scores. Look at how they defend. Very important once you get down to the last couple weeks of the regular season when you're playing good teams and also the playoffs. And Malik Beasley is needed here. He will not play in this game. So also get to the end of the season. Huge difference in how you handicap games here. Toronto, people don't realize this. They're like Utah. 16-1 in their last 17 home games here against Minnesota. So they've dominated Minnesota here. But the Raptors, like I said, they're just so efficient here. I think that they're going to have that edge against the Minnesota team. And just think that Minnesota, you know, trying to bounce back after that blowout loss of Boston, probably not going to be able to do it here. So lay the small spot here. Toronto Blue Jays blowout special over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday night.”
TOR 125, MIN 102 — Toronto Raptors routed Minnesota 125-102, covering the -3 spread by 20 points (ESPN box score).
“Calgary Flames here. Money line, minus 109. Hidden gem over. the Colorado Avalanche.”
COL 2, CGY 1 — Colorado Avalanche beat Calgary Flames 2-1 on the road; Flames moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Aggies minus one and a half versus Washington State. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So we saw this in the tournament. Sometimes it's not how good you are. It's when and how and the situation you face an opponent. And Washington State got to face Southern Methodist in their second round game, the NIT. Southern Methodist was without their coach. They had fired their coach. So that was a great matchup. Then they get to face a BYU team that, let's be honest, BYU just was not very good this year. So they had the advantage of facing teams at the right time. Texas A&M, I mean, you talk about a team that is hot. They have lost one game since Saturday, February 19th. That only loss was in the finals of the SEC. And, hey, the SEC not putting teams, you know, into the Final Four, but it was consistently strong. That loss was to Tennessee in postseason, took out Alcorn State by double digits, Oregon by 15, and then beat a really strong Wake Forest's team by 15. So they get back on defense. They block shots That what I like about this team here So I think they getting better and better They using this thing as this tournament here as a springboard here 31st in defensive efficiency, averaging 10.2 steals per game and 3.4 blocks. So their Begman just do a great job protecting the rim, and they turn those rebounds and blocks into offensive opportunities here. So I'm going to take Texas A&M. I think the line's off. I think this line should be three and a half, four here. We're going to go with Texas A&M here. Blowout special in the NIT of Washington State.”
72-56 — Texas A&M beat Washington State 72-56 in the NIT semifinal, covering -1.5 easily (ESPN/Wikipedia results).
“We're going to lay the one, the one and a half here. We're going to go with the Philadelphia 76ers here as a level one lock over the Milwaukee Bucs.”
MIL 118, PHI 116 — Milwaukee Bucks beat Philadelphia 118-116; 76ers -1 lost outright, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Miami Heat, minus 13.5 versus the Kings. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Boy, Jimmy Butler, he's feisty also, like Will Smith. And you know what, Jimmy, I like the fact that the guy plays hard. But right now, something isn't right. I mean, he needs to get right. He's got to sit him for a couple games, maybe discipline him. He's shooting like threes. He's the worst three-point shooter, maybe even worse than me shooting threes. 20.2 on the season, another 0 for 3 the other night. They lost four straight games. I know De'Aaron Fox's list is questionable. But your boy, your boy, Davion Mitchell, playing well. At least 22 points, three consecutive games. 23-year-old point guard, now up to 10.9 points per game this year. And Harrison Barnes, under the radar. Here's a guy, no one talks about the guy. He's just a guy that does his job. 19 points in Saturday's defeat. He's averaging almost 17 points and almost six rebounds a game. So I can't lay over 13 points here in the Miami Heat when they've lost four straight games. They can't find the way. Maybe it's because they have almost everyone back now for the first time this year. Miami's one of those teams that loves the underdog mantra. When they have that underdog mantra, they fight, and they fight real hard. They get everyone back. Everyone's sharing minutes. They're just one of those teams that's better when they're playing, you know, with about seven to eight healthy guys. I like Sacramento here. Wrong team favored over the Miami Heat.”
MIA 123-100 SAC — Miami beat Sacramento 123-100; the Kings lost by 23, failing to cover +13.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the seven and a half points here. We're going with Fresno State blowout special over the Thunderbirds of Southern Utah.”
FSU 67-48 SUU — Fresno State beat Southern Utah 67-48 in The Basketball Classic semifinal, covering the -7.5 spread by 19 points (2022 Basketball Classic bracket).
“I'm laying the three points here. Level one lock to start the week. We're going with the Denver Nuggets.”
DEN 113-109 CHA — Denver beat Charlotte 113-109, covering the -3 spread by 4 points (ESPN box score).
“Wrong team favorite. We're going to ride with the Providence Flyers here, plus the 7.5, as they take on number one Kansas.”
KU 66-61 PROV — Kansas beat Providence 66-61 in the Sweet 16; the Friars lost by 5, covering the +7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Minnesota, minus 2.5 versus the Mavericks. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so here's the deal with this game. There's a lot of layers. Minnesota is not out of it yet. They're trying to get to that sixth spot. They're a game back. And they lost to Dallas on Monday night, 110-108. Just didn't play well down the stretch here. Both teams, excellent spread records. Dallas, 40-32-1. Minnesota, 40-32-2. So both teams are up there. Dallas, better than expected. They've lost some guys. But here is the deal with this game. So Minnesota just did not close these games out. In fact, they blew a 13-point second-half lead in that game against Phoenix. They also lost a lead. They had late against Dallas, couldn't finish off that game. So I think that they're looking for revenge here. And Minnesota right now can score. The only problem was they just didn't finish those last two games. So I love Edwards. I think he's a kid that's really coming to his own. Anthony Towns plays great at home. He's a guy averaging almost 25 points a game, 9.9 rebounds, over a block per game. I think he's going to have success in the middle here in the paint against the Dallas team. They don't really have a true center here. So you know what they say, revenge is a you-know-what. We're going with Minnesota here, a low-out special over the Dallas Mavericks.”
MIN 116-95 DAL — Minnesota beat Dallas 116-95, covering the -2.5 spread by 21 points (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Duke minus three versus the Razorbacks. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So if you didn't know what game it was in the tournament, you saw Eric Musselman running around after he beat Gonzaga, you would have thought they won the tournament. He was out of his mind happy. So I'm happy for him, but I'm going to take advantage of it. I don't think that they're going to be able to focus right now. They're going to play a Duke team playing their best ball right now. And when's the last time you saw a team, as I mentioned earlier, hit their last eight shots? So I think they're focused. I think they have too many guys right now that can knock down shots here. Still think that Arkansas is limited on offense. So as they go with J.D. Notte, he's their guy. He's going to have to score probably 22 to 25 points in this game for them to stay in this game. So Duke might be the team of destiny. So I think they will at least into the final four here. I'm going to lay the small spot here. Level three lock. We're going all the way up. Duke over Arkansas on Saturday night.”
DUKE 78-69 ARK — Duke beat Arkansas 78-69 in the Elite Eight, covering the -3 spread by 9 points (ESPN box score).
“of their own betonline.net line for this one is Tampa Bay Moneyline minus 105 versus the Bruins. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so I have not released a hockey game this week, and I've been waiting for a good one, and I've got a doozy. This is a huge matchup in the Eastern Conference playoff battle. If Boston wins, they leapfrog the Lightning for third in the Atlantic Division and push Tampa to a wild card spot, but it's not going to happen. This matchup works out really well for Tampa. Boston coming home from a long road trip and off a 3-2 overtime victory the other night in Montreal. So they're going to take a few minutes, I think, to get into this game. Tampa Bay coming off a 3-2 loss to a division rival in a game they probably should have won. And they have revenge on their minds here. The last time these two teams faced off against each other, the Bruins won 5-2 in Tampa about a month ago. When you're in a mini slump like the Lightning are, these big divisional matchups are where you break out of the slumps. Superstar players step up, goalies, they make a couple extra saves, and you make adjustments. One other important thing I like here in this game is at the trade deadline, what happened on Monday, Tampa Bay already got a game in with a couple of new players since those moves. Boston hasn't. The Bruins acquired a defenseman, Hampus Lingholm. Lingholm, they get him at the deadline, and I think he's going to be a top four defenseman for them, but it takes a game or two to get used to and to get acclimated with his teammates. So when you're expected to play 20 minutes per game, that can lead to some miscues and some mistakes. I think Tampa gets things right here. Unfortunately for you, it's not going to be over early. Low scoring game. Tampa, three to two.”
BOS 3-2 TB — Boston beat Tampa Bay 3-2; the Lightning lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Slava Claus, Moneyline, minus 150. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so I think you did a pretty good job. It's a tough game to pronounce. I tried. First fight of the main card, UFC fight night in Columbus, Ohio. So this is a fight here where Ducasey at one time was a really highly thought of prospect. But he's had mixed results so far in his UFC career, gone five and five. Closer look at his record shows that Ducasey struggled against better competition he's faced. Duke Casey's last victory was almost two and a half years ago against a fighter who, although talented, has since moved down to the lower featherweight class. Slava Claus comes in here just minus 150. Now, you look at the guy, and you're saying, wow, that guy doesn't look like a fighter. You know, he's not muscle-bound, not like he's tan, doesn't have tattoos all over the place, but very impressive in his two fights in the UFC. although he is susceptible to early takedowns to Casey that's not his game even if he gets taken down he is able to get back up on his feet and incredible power and accuracy in his striking so what I especially like about him and you know we've talked about certain guys like that are amazing kickers or strikers. But what he does is he is able to rip body shots, something that is very underutilized in the MMA. And something that I believe will serve him very well in this fight here, his last bout ended with a walk-off liver shot as his opponent crumbled to the canvas. So I say, ho, ho, ho. I expect Christmas to come early this year in Columbus as Slava Claus delivers a convincing stand-up victory and possibly a KO. Level two lock. We're going with Slava Claus over Bone Crusher.”
Marc Diakiese defeated Vyacheslav Borshchev by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus in Columbus; Borshchev lost the moneyline outright.
“I'm going to go with Texas Tech minus the one here. Down goes Tyson. No, not Tyson. Down goes Coach K. Texas Tech minus one. Level three lock.”
DUKE 78-73 TTU — Duke beat Texas Tech 78-73 in the Sweet 16; the Red Raiders failed to cover -1, losing outright (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Texas A&M minus three versus Wake Forest. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah Wake Forest is a really good home team and they can score But they going to be going up against a Texas A team that can play defense You know they really only lost one game You're going back like 10, 12 games, and that was a championship game in the SEC. So nothing to be embarrassed about. They can rebound, and I think that's going to be something that's going to help them here. Demon Deacons, no offensive rebound. Number 212 out of 357 team. and also number 225 in turnover rate. So when you play at home, you've got that defensive intensity that you can turn up, 39th in defense this year. I think they're going to be able to slow down Aldonis Williams, the leading scorer from Wake Forest, who's averaging over 19 points a game. So I think this is a great situation. The home crowd's going to be fired up. Love Buzz. I think he's doing a great job here with this Texas A&M program and at home with a chance to go to the NIT Final Four. I think they turn it up here. I think they're going to dominate the boards. I think they're going to be able to score here and transition. And this is a must-win game here. Everyone's going to be looking ahead and studying the games for the next couple nights. Hidden gem. We're going with Texas A&M minus the small spot at home over Wake Forest.”
TAMU 67-52 WAKE — Texas A&M beat Wake Forest 67-52 in the NIT quarterfinal, covering the -3 spread by 15 points (2022 NIT bracket).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Hornets, minus seven versus the New York Knicks. That's on this one, Lee. Yeah, so Charlotte's hitting ninth in the play-in tournament. And they're in. I mean, Washington is six and a half games behind them. So they're fighting right now. Brooklyn is a game ahead of them. Atlanta is a game behind them. I think they want to get in that eighth spot. They want to be in the eighth spot compared to the ninth spot. You lose in the ninth spot and you're done first game. So big, big game here. And on a roll, they've won five straight games. You're catching the Knicks off playing last night. And they couldn't stop Trey Young, 45 points. So I like the fact that Charlotte is balanced They have five or six guys that can score 20 on every single night They facing the Knicks that are shorthanded They starting a couple guys that normally come off the bench They played last night. And then also on top of everything, people talk always about the Charlotte Hornets. They don't shoot free throws well. They're in the bottom five in the league. Not going to come into play just like last night against Milwaukee. They're not going to be fouled the last second when they're up 15, 20 points here. So we're in the last 10 games of the season. This is when teams that are out of the playoffs, like the Knicks, they quit here. So you're looking at a seven-point line. You're thinking, oh, maybe the Knicks can keep it close. No way, no how. Blowout city here. We're going with the Charlotte Hornets big time over the New York Knicks.”
NY 121-106 CHA — New York beat Charlotte 121-106; the Hornets lost outright, failing to cover -7 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the small spot. I might even want to take him here as a money line. Line might move up to one, one and a half here. Not going to matter here. We're going to go the Arizona Wildcats here. money line level two lock”
HOU 72-60 ARIZ — Houston beat Arizona 72-60 in the Sweet 16; Arizona lost outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“We're going to lay the four points here. Hidden gem, UTEP, the minors, Tim Hardaway's old school over Southern Utah.”
SUU 82-69 UTEP — Southern Utah beat UTEP 82-69 outright in The Basketball Classic; UTEP failed to cover -4 (2022 Basketball Classic bracket).
“So we're going to go with the Haitian sensation, Neil Magny minus 220 over Max Griffin. This is going to be the blowout special over early.”
Neil Magny defeated Max Griffin by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) at UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus, winning the moneyline outright.
“So we're going to go with a level two lock. Keep rolling here on Tuesday. Milwaukee Bucks here at home, laying the seven over the Chicago Bulls.”
MIL 126-98 CHI — Milwaukee routed Chicago 126-98, covering the -7 spread by 28 points (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Ohio minus 1.5 versus Abilene Christian. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Well, I mentioned it a couple times. I'm actually from Abilene, Texas, after I was born. Abilene. Abilene. Yeah. I know you love that song. Yes. This is a team that really is coming on. They're playing some really good basketball. Ohio, yeah, their record is actually a little bit better. They just don't beat anyone that's good here. So Abilene Christian, right now 4-1 straight up and 3-1 against the spread over the last five games. They've covered nine also the last 12 when playing at a neutral site, which is very important. They're playing this game in Daytona Beach. So I'm watching Ohio. They just can't beat good teams. Teams with records that are above 60% winning percentage, they have not done well. Abilene Christian, the last few games, they have really started to score. The only game they lost was against New Mexico State. Yeah, a team that ended up playing really well in the tournament. So I like Abilene Christian here. We're going to go with the Hidden Gem. Hidden Gem, Abilene Christian. They get the job done over Ohio.”
91-86 — Abilene Christian beat Ohio 91-86 in the CBI quarterfinal, winning outright and covering +1.5 (2022 CBI bracket).
“I'm going to go with the wrong team favorite, Minnesota Timberwolves, over the Dallas Mavericks plus three and a half.”
DAL 110-108 MIN — Dallas beat Minnesota 110-108; Timberwolves lost by 2, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“This is a playoff game right here if I ever seen one Miami is 47 Philadelphia is 43 BetOnline line for this one The Heat minus one and a half at the Philadelphia 76ers Thoughts on this one Lee Yeah, so the Heat have a three-and-a-half game lead over number three, Philadelphia in the East. And Philadelphia has not fared well against the Heat so far this season. But the Heat a little bit banged up here. Jimmy Butler did not play against Oklahoma City. He's been in and out of the lineup. I mean, it seems like I think he's missed like over 20 games this year. He had COVID, you know, toe injury. I mean, the list goes on and on. So I don't think he's 100% Caleb Martin, who I think is one of the most underrated defenders out there. He may not play. Gabe Vincent, their backup point guard, and sometimes started shooting guard, he will not play. Victor Oladipo, he will not play. They're going to give him rest. He's got some back spasms. So the Heat is going to be a little bit undermanned here. And in the last game, Philadelphia people, I think, and the reason you see this line here, you're saying, well, shouldn't, you know, this be like Philadelphia one or two? The reason that Miami's favorite is Miami has a really good road record here, one of the best road records. In fact, they're 6-0-1 against the spread. The last seven games is a road favorite. 10-2 against the spread the last 12 games against a team with a winning percentage above 600. And Philadelphia just won in four against the spread the last five games against a team with a winning record. But Philadelphia is coming off a back-to-back. But even though they lost by five last night against Toronto, I don't think we're going to see the two stars Joel Embiid and James Harden have such bad games. Joel Embiid just 21 points, but in that game, just couldn't shoot. I mean, six for 20 from the field, 0 for 3 from three-point land. James Harden, yeah, he was 5-for-12, made a couple easy layups, but 0-for-4 here from three-point land. That's a combined 0-for-7. That's not going to happen again here. So I think those two guys get up. They know they might face Miami. In the playoffs, they're facing Miami here when they're a little bit depleted here. Rarely do two stars like this who really seem to like playing each other, play poorly back-to-back games here. We're going to go with a level two lock right out of the gate on Monday. Philadelphia 76ers over my Miami Heat.”
PHI 113-106 MIA — Philadelphia beat Miami 113-106; the 76ers won outright, covering the +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one, Wisconsin, minus eight versus Colgate. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, and this is a game here I think most people are just going to skip over, and I'm not. The average person is going to look at Colgate, they're going to look at their record, and they're going to say, okay, 15 straight wins. They're going to play hard here. But here's the problem. You look at the teams that they played in November and December. They just could not match up at all. They lost to North Carolina State, who's awful this year. They lost to two teams in the Ivy League, and the Ivy League's decent this year. So anytime they had to step up in competition, they lost to Cornell and Harvard. They even lost to Niagara. Then in December, they lose to Pitt, who's awful, and they got blown out by St. John's and also Vermont. So I just don't see him competing here. Johnny Davis, Wisconsin star. He went three for 19 against Michigan State. He was playing on an ankle injury. He has a full week to heal up. I think he's going to get off here, have a huge game here. This is an absolute hidden gem here. Wisconsin Badgers blowout city over Colgate”
WIS 67-60 COLG — Wisconsin beat Colgate 67-60 in the NCAA Tournament first round, a 7-point margin that falls short of the -8 line, so Wisconsin -8 busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“blowout special i mean short and simple i think they win this game here by 25 35 points here blowout special duke blue devils don get in coach k way here over cal state fullerton”
DUKE 78-61 CSUF — Duke beat Cal State Fullerton 78-61 outright in the NCAA Tournament first round, so Duke moneyline cashes (ESPN scoreboard).
“So I think you want to take Jack, Tank Shore, plus 105 here. And another thing you have to consider in this fight, it's taking place in London. Where is Tank from? Wales Very close He going to have a huge following Where is Valide from Originally Russia Now he does fight in Albuquerque New Mexico I don love his gym I think they've got a lot of has-beens. Well, a lot of good fighters back in the day. No champions, but a lot of has-beens right now. And I don't see anyone up-and-comers coming out of that gym here. So we're going to go with the younger fighter, the fighter that's getting better. And you've got to think, if it's a close decision, they're giving it to the guys from Wales here. So everything is important. You have to factor in everything. You've got to think he's going to be fired up to fight in front of his home folks. And then also, I don't see how they can give a close decision to anyone from Russia. So just being honest about that, I'm going with the tank here over Lucky. Lucky is a couple days too late here. He should have fought this game on St. Patrick's Day. Level three lock.”
Jack Shore defeated Timur Valiev by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-27) at UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall, so Shore ML cashes (Wikipedia event results).
“I'm taking the 13.5 points. hidden gem, Eastern Washington taking the points against Fresno State in the NIT action.”
FRES 83-74 EWU — Fresno State beat Eastern Washington 83-74, a 9-point margin that falls inside the +13.5 line, so Eastern Washington +13.5 covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“wrong team favorite Akron we're taking the 13 and a half points I think it's going right down to the wire against UCLA might put a scare into them”
UCLA 57-53 AKR — UCLA beat Akron 57-53 in the NCAA Tournament first round, a 4-point margin that falls inside the +13.5 line, so Akron +13.5 covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Arkansas minus five versus Vermont. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so when I'm watching a lot of tapes on teams I don't see often, and Vermont is one of those teams, I make a lot of notes. And after watching Arkansas all year long, I wrote this down like three different times. The Arkansas talent level is way higher than Vermont's. You don't see it that often where a team just can't compete talent-wise. I think this is one of them. I think that Arkansas, the size difference in the backcourt is going to make a difference. I think they're going to be able to shoot over the guards for Vermont. I think they're going to get a bunch of second-chance opportunities. You look at numbers in Vermont's pretty good rebounding team, but just lower-level talent here. So J.D. Notte averaged 18 points per game this year and almost four assists. I think that he's going to have a big game here. So even though Arkansas, you look at the number 303-point field goal percentage, I don't think it's going to be a factor. I don't think they're going to take many threes here. So Vermont also played three respectable teams here. They lost to Providence by 10 and by 11 to Maryland, who was not very good this year. They even lost to Oakland. So I'm taking Arkansas here. Level 2 lock.”
ARK 75-71 VT — Arkansas beat Vermont 75-71 in the NCAA Tournament first round, a 4-point margin that falls short of the -5 line, so Arkansas -5 busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“we're going to go with Cody Durden plus 800. That's right, plus 800 for a KO or TKO sometime during the three rounds.”
Muhammad Mokaev submitted Cody Durden via first-round guillotine choke at UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall, so Durden by KO/TKO busts (Wikipedia event results).
“cleveland cavaliers philadelphia on the season is 41 and 26 the cavaliers are 39 and 29 betonline.net line for this one philadelphia minus four and a half versus cleveland thoughts on this one lee okay so i think this is going to be a game of styles and i think cleveland which had stumbled for a while has only won four the last 10 games they might have found themselves so they've gotten some guys back off injuries. You know, they were beaten up. Uh, Garrett Allen, their center is not going to play in this game, but they got pretty much everyone back and ready to go here. So I think they want to run here and Joel Embiid and, and, and the rest of the Philadelphia 76ers love to play that half court game. Uh, James Harden likes to slow it down, take guys one-on-one, used the pick and roll, but this young Cleveland team can score in transition here. So I think it's a matter of styles here and playing at home here. I think they found themselves here. And then also on the glass here, Cleveland averaging 42 rebounds per game here. I think they're going to control the glass and be able to get out early on the break. So I'm going to take the points here. Wrong team favorite, Cleveland Cavaliers, fully upset.”
PHI 118-114 CLE — 76ers beat the Cavaliers 118-114, a 4-point margin that falls inside the +4.5 line, so Cleveland +4.5 covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Wright State minus two and a half versus Bryant. What's your thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so the Bryant University Bulldogs are going dancing for the first time ever. And this game reminds me of the game last night. I mean, we saw Texas A&M, Corpus Christi. They just weren't ready for the moment. So didn't play their game. Bryant loves to run the ball, loves to shoot the ball, loves to shoot threes. But, you know, when you get into an unfamiliar setting and a situation you've never been there before, sometimes these results aren't very good. They played a couple really good teams, like Houston and Cincinnati in December. What happened in those games? Houston beat them 111-44. Cincinnati, who's having an off year, beat them 73-58. So give them credit. In March, they just got absolutely hot. So they made it to the tournament. They're going to face a Wright State team that has been there before. Was there a couple years ago? And I think that's important where you've got a couple players who've been in the big dance, the coaching staff, knowing how to prepare for this game. We saw it played out last night in the Texas Southern win. So I'm going to lay the small spot here. I'm going with Wright State here. Blowout special over the Bryant Bulldogs.”
WRST 93-82 BRY — Wright State beat Bryant 93-82 in the NCAA Tournament First Four, an 11-point margin that clears the -2.5 line, so Wright State -2.5 covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“We're taking the Calgary Flames here. Minus the one-and-a-half goals, minus 125 here. This is going to be a level three lock.”
CGY 6-3 NJ — Flames beat the Devils 6-3, a 3-goal margin that clears the -1.5 line, so Calgary -1.5 covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“Advantage Dallas, I think the wrong team is favored. Dallas stars here. Moneyline plus 140 over the Toronto.”
TOR 4-0 DAL — The Maple Leafs shut out the Stars 4-0, so Dallas Stars moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“Buy it, betonline.net line for this one. The Heat minus 12.5 versus the Pistons. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so, you know, I follow the Heat closely. Season ticket holder, go to a lot of their games. They were in a bad spot the other night, playing without Jimmy Butler on a back-to-backer. They're going to face a Pistons team. A lot of people don't realize this has been red hot. They've actually covered 10 of the last seven games. They've actually won six of the last 11. We only have 18 wins on the year. But I think they're headed for a downtick right now, even though Kate Cunningham's starting to play much better. He's not just shooting. I mean, his shot selection was terrible. Still second to last in offensive points per game, just 103 points per game. Don't defend threes well. 29th, 29th in the league, allowing 36.7, and that's what the Heat does with Oladipo coming aboard. They've got sharpshooters. I mean, they're second five when they come in. Guys like Struis can stroke threes left and right. They're just two games up on Milwaukee, three on Philadelphia. So this is a big game here. Defense fourth in the league and holding opponents just 44.3% and six also in three-point land. So even if they get up, I don't see Detroit making a comeback. They're only allowing 34.1% on three-point attempts. So I think Detroit had their run. I expect Jimmy Butler back. He would have played last game with that, that sore toe. I mean, just ridiculous how some of these NBA teams are resting some of their stars here. We're going to go with a blowout special. Miami Heat. They'll probably double the spread here of Detroit tonight in Miami.”
MIA 105-98 DET — Heat beat the Pistons 105-98, a 7-point margin that falls short of the -12.5 line, so Miami -12.5 busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“i'm gonna lay the four here level one lock play in game to the ncaa march madness tournament tonight we're going with the indiana hoosiers”
IU 66-58 WYO — Indiana beat Wyoming 66-58 in the NCAA Tournament First Four, an 8-point margin that clears the -4 line, so Indiana -4 covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“BenOnline.net line for this one. Milwaukee minus one and a half versus Jazz. Break this one down for us, Lee. So, you know, I thought the Milwaukee was going to come to play on Friday night and take the Golden State Warriors. They started off strong in the first quarter. but they just seemed like they didn't care. I mean, the team that wanted it more was the Golden State Warriors. Now they're going to play a team in the Utah Jazz that can shut down two guys. So Milwaukee and the rest of the cast, guys like Serge Ibaka, Drew Holiday are going to have to play better than they did in that last game. So, yeah, Giannis looks great. I mean, Middleton looks good. But this Utah team can play defense here. I think that they miss Pat Connington coming off the bench. He's a guy that just seems to fill it up when he comes in here. But the Bucs, 16th in the league in defense, that's not going to win you championships. So I think Utah as a team, even though they allowed a bunch of points in the last game, rarely have games where they allow back-to-back high scores. And Jordan Clarkson, wow, 45 points off 15 for 21 shooting. We like to back teams that are scoring, and Mitchell had another 25 points, Chippton with six assists and five rebounds, and even two steals. Hassan Whiteside, 21 rebounds here. Wow. I think the wrong team is favored. I'm thinking the Utah Jazz at home over the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.”
MIL 117-111 UTA — Bucks beat the Jazz 117-111, a 6-point margin that exceeds the +1.5 line, so Utah +1.5 busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“So this Toronto team plays hard for some reason. They play better on the road here. Blowout special Toronto over the Lake show tonight. Lake show after this loss, it's going to be 10 games under 500. Jeez. And then the only winning time is going to be that show. So if you're the Laker fan and you want to see some winning time, you might have to go and watch the series because you're not seeing winning time on the court these days even though lebron's playing out of his mind at 37 years old you got to give that dude so much props but man it's a shame to see what that team is doing so there it is right there blowout special toronto raptors versus the lakers again toronto minus five versus la”
TOR 114-103 LAL — Raptors beat the Lakers 114-103, an 11-point margin that clears the -5 line, so Toronto -5 covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one is Loyola Chicago. minus one versus Ohio State. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, it's a Friday matchup, and, you know, a lot of times people see a game where it's near a pick-em, and they just, you know, pass it by, and they're like, oh, I have no real strong opinion. But when a higher seed is favored, it kind of tells you something. Probably the better team. And in this case, I think Loyola Chicago is the better team. And teams like Ohio State from big conferences who barely get in. I mean, Ohio State should not be a seven seed. they should be like a 10, 11, 12 seed. They just don't go very far. I mean, I don't see Ohio State doing anything in this tournament. And this Loyola Chicago team led by Sister Jean again coming back to the NCAA tournament. She had her own news conference. It was standing room only. So maybe like the 11th seed that they had in 2018, they can make another run here. They shoot threes. 38.3 from three-point lane, and they lock you down on defense. They play hard on every single possession here and I just think Ohio State doesn have the chops A guy that can make a shot when they need it so i going with loyola chicago here level one lock on friday opening game over the ohio state buckeyes”
54-41 — Ohio State beat Loyola Chicago 54-41 outright in the NCAA Tournament first round, so Loyola Chicago -1 busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. SMU minus 8.5 versus Tulsa. Thoughts on this one? Okay, so SMU is right on the bubble, in my opinion. Even though they have a 22-7 record, I think they need to win this game here to get in. If not, they could be out. And I watched their last couple games, and they did win against Cincinnati and Tulane. But I'm seeing a lot of guys shoot shots, and they're a little hesitant. They're trying to make that extra pass here. And they just haven't been the same the last couple weeks. So they have beaten Tulsa twice. In fact, one of those games in December, Tulsa shot just 35%. They couldn't do anything. Tough to beat a team three times. And Tulsa all of a sudden is getting points in the paint. and defensively. They had problems early in the year, but since the end of January, have not given up more than 77 points a game. In fact, a couple times, they've only given up 40, 50, and low 60s. So no one's scoring on them. And so you're going to get almost double digits here on a neutral court. I think the pressure, like I said, is clearly on SMU. Tulsa played great in their conference opener here against Wichita State team that always gives teams trouble. I'm taking the points here. Wrong team favored. Tulsa. I'm taking the points as they take on SMU and I think the pressure is going to get to the SMU Mustangs. That is funny”
83-58 — SMU beat Tulsa 83-58 outright, so Tulsa +8.5 busts by a wide margin (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Memphis, minus nine versus the New York Knicks. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So a lot of people don't realize that this Memphis team there was a bunch of guys that were playing, but they were not 100%. It looks like now finally they're back to full strength. And the Knicks, what have the Knicks done? I mean, the last three games out of nowhere. I mean, I saw them a couple weeks ago in New York. The Heat took them apart. I mean, they couldn't get anything done. They also lost right after that. They lost to Philadelphia and Phoenix. They go on the road and beat the Clippers by 23. they beat Sacramento on the road by 16 and took apart Dallas by 30 on Wednesday night so normally probably look at the Knicks but here the problem pace of play Memphis is very up the Knicks really don have a point guard since Rose has been out here So I don think they have anyone that can stop Morant here and just think it going to be an up-and-down game here. New York more of a half-court team here. I think Morant's going to go off. I think he's maybe even end up. This is a game where you maybe play him over in the points, rebounds and assists here. He might have a game where he scores 35, dishes out 12, 14 assists, and has 7, 8, maybe even 10. He might end up with a triple-double here. So pace of play here. The Knicks, the fourth game, start to feel good about themselves here. We're going with the Memphis Grizzlies here. We're laying the points over the New York Knicks. Blowout special.”
MEM 118-114 NY — Grizzlies beat the Knicks 118-114, a 4-point margin that falls short of the -9 line, so Memphis -9 busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“We're going with Alex Stonehands Pereira, minus 175. Level 3 lock”
Alex Pereira defeated Bruno Silva by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev, so Pereira ML cashes (Wikipedia event results).
“The wrong team is favored here in Raleigh. Wrong team favored. We're going with the Colorado Avalanche money line here, plus 105 against Carolina.”
2-0 — Carolina beat Colorado 2-0; the Avalanche moneyline bet busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Alabama minus 5.5 versus Vanderbilt. Thoughts on this one, Lee? The first game this year these two teams played in Vanderbilt, Alabama won the game. And they have not played well down the stretch the last couple games where Vanderbilt has. But there's one thing that I think is going to really hurt Vanderbilt. They're playing within 24 hours. So they won yesterday easy against Georgia, but it's tough to come back playing a completely different team here, a team that can score. Alabama averaging over 80 points per game. Vanderbilt just 69 points per game here. So I think Alabama is dangerous, shoots the three really well here, gets up and down the court. So sometimes you got to lay it if you want to play it here Some people are going to be playing Vanderbilt Vanderbilt thinking they keep it close here slow it down I don think so here So I think the pace of play and the fact that they played within 24 hours is really going to hurt them. Also on the neutral side here. Vandy's not playing it on that weird court, one of the weirdest home courts we've ever seen. So we're going here with a blowout special, Alabama over Vanderbilt.”
82-76 — Vanderbilt beat Alabama 82-76 outright in the SEC tournament, so Alabama -5.5 busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“So we're going to go with a level unlock, Brooklyn Nets, plus the four-and-a-half points at Philadelphia.”
129-100 — Brooklyn routed Philadelphia 129-100, a 29-point win that easily covers Nets +4.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Golden State, minus one and a half versus Nuggets. That's on this one, Lee. I mean, just a weird setup game here. So they had a game that was canceled earlier in the season, so they had to make it up on Monday in Denver. Golden State goes there without their top three. They kept it close. I mean, that game was no blowout at all. Denver won the game 131-124. Now Golden State comes back to the scene of the crime. They're bringing the top three players. And what I've noticed with Denver, when they play top teams without Will Barton, And he's a game-time decision. I have a feeling he won't play if he does play nowhere near 100%. Just not the same team. So, you know, everyone talks about Golden State, all their injuries. Denver has as many injuries. And without Will Barton, this team just doesn't run as smoothly here. So, I know the Nuggets are 4-0 in the last four games as an underdog, 5-1 in the last six. Well, it's not against opponents like the Golden State Warriors here. So I just think the matchups here, they just don't have guys that can cover the big three. And they played well the other night, cruised to a real easy win the other night at home against the Clippers. It was never close, even though it was a 15-point margin. So I'm going with a level two lock here, Golden State Warriors over the Denver Nuggets.”
113-102 — Golden State beat Denver 113-102, an 11-point win that covers the Warriors -1.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm taking the Minnesota Wild here. Plus $2,000, 20-1 for every $100 you can win $2,000 here. Bet a little, win a whole lot.”
The Colorado Avalanche won the 2022 Stanley Cup, defeating Tampa Bay 4-2 in the Final; Minnesota did not win the Cup, so this futures bet busts (Wikipedia, sourced to official NHL results).
“So I'm thinking the Nebraska Cornhuskers one more time. I think this game goes right down to the wire here. Wrong team favorite. Nebraska Cornhuskers plus five against Northwestern.”
71-69 — Northwestern beat Nebraska 71-69 in the Big Ten tournament, a 2-point loss for Nebraska that covers the +5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“You're seeing seven points here on the road. I think they won by double digits here. Blowout special, Boston Celtics over the fading Charlotte Hornets.”
115-101 — Boston beat Charlotte 115-101; the Celtics moneyline cashes (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Huskies, minus one and a half versus Utah. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so you would think, you know, before Washington had this run, that Utah would be favorite, and maybe rightfully so. But Washington beat them in both games this year, and neither game was a fluke. And what I'm seeing in both of these teams now, and Washington at one point was in, out of 357 teams in the 10-palm ratings in the low 100s. They're playing such good ball, they're ranked 117th right now. And Utah is fading. And why are they fading? Can't protect the ball. In fact, in the last three games, they've turned the ball over at least 15 times in every game. Washington Huskies haven't turned the ball over more than 15 times in a game dating back to over a month. So it's all about protecting the ball. Not turning it over gives you a much better chance. You're going to have more good looks at the basket here. I think Washington believes in themselves. They wanted that winning record. That was important. And I think that they just think that they can win this game here and maybe win a couple games in the tournament. So we're going to lay the small spot here. Level one lock, Washington Huskies over the running youth.”
82-70 — Washington beat Utah 82-70 in the Pac-12 tournament, a 12-point win that covers the Huskies -1.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“I think you got to play here Georgia Tech plus one and a half is a hidden gem Just because it maybe two of the worst teams in the conference doesn mean there not a clear side winner. So Georgia Tech, plus the points, hidden gem.”
84-74 — Louisville beat Georgia Tech 84-74 in the ACC tournament, a 10-point win that busts Georgia Tech +1.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Memphis minus 5.5 versus the Pelicans. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so Memphis is sitting in second place. a half a game above Golden State. And I think they're starting to feel the pressure. New Orleans sitting in 10th. I think they're pretty much assured 9th or 10th place. And that's all they want to do is they want to get in the tournament. They're about getting that momentum, finishing strong this year and carrying over to next year. And I love the way C.J. McCollum has fit into this team. His scoring and the way he distributes the ball and plays hard on defense is just perfect for what this team is going to be all about going forward. Yes, Zion Williamson is still not back, but he could be back for the playoffs. And this team is scoring points. You talk about putting the ball in the net. The last three games, 124, 125, and 130. Before that, you have to go all the way back to February 10th for a game where they scored less than 109 points. So when a team is scoring, keep riding them here. You know, this is a game that might go down to the wire, and it might lose 130 to 128, or might even go into overtime like some of their games of late, but they're just not quitting here. This Memphis team, great as an underdog, great when they were under the radar, but the secret's out here. So I think they had their little run here, even lost against Houston on Sunday by 11 points here. Lost two games before that to Boston by 13. They only beat Orlando of late. So this team just, I think that they hit the wall. They might recover. But I like the way this New Orleans team is scoring, playing defense. In fact, they've even held some teams of late to under 100 points. In fact, going back over the last month here, held a bunch of teams under 100 points. So I think the wrong team is favored here. I'm taking the New Orleans Pelicans plus the points. I'm going to put half my wager on them plus the points.”
132-111 — Memphis routed New Orleans 132-111, a 21-point Grizzlies win that busts Pelicans +5.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm taking the New Orleans Pelicans plus the points. I'm going to put half my wager on them plus the points. The other half on the money line here.”
132-111 — Memphis beat New Orleans 132-111; the Pelicans moneyline bet busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Golden State Warriors, minus 6.5 versus those L.A. Clippers. Thoughts on this one Lee So kind of a weird you know what we noticed lately is some weird scheduling dynamics And what we have here is the Clippers their last five wins they beaten Houston twice actually three times. They've played them three times since February 17th. And the Lakers, two teams that just are not very good. But they have also lost their last game to the New York Knicks, and they got routed in that game. What did Golden State do? and I don't think this sets a good precedent. They had a make-up game last night against Denver. They didn't take their big three. They're like, we're not even taking them on the trip here. So they played Denver tough. Their role players play really, really hard. Yeah, they're going to get back Draymond really soon. They're going to get back Wiseman soon, and they're going to be complete. But I just don't think the Clippers have the defense to stop this Warriors team. So the big three is going to be fresh here. They know they need to get on a run here. the Terran Lue's team scored only 40 points in that loss in the first half and they allowed 59 so we're starting to see a little leakage as far as defense here so also you know George Leonard and even Norman Powell are out for this one so Clippers just don't have the firepower 25th on offense and scoring this year averaging only 107 points per game year their defense has been good, but like I said, we're seeing some slippage here, and I don't think it carries much to beat Houston three times, and the Lakers twice a much late, so sometimes you know, you gotta lay it if you want to play it here, and I think like I said, resting those three guys, they're gonna come out firing here, a blowout special, Golden State minus the points over the clip joint tonight. There you go right there, I like”
112-97 — Golden State beat the LA Clippers 112-97, a 15-point win that covers the Warriors -6.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Panthers, money line, minus 110 versus Pittsburgh. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, the Penguins are 7-8 overall the last 15 games. But those 15 games include a four-game losing streak, four-game winning streak, a three-game losing streak, and then a three-game winning streak, which was actually just broken on Friday night. The primary concern right now has been the strength all season secondary scoring they brought in guys like jeff carter brock mcginn uh evan rodrigues and um to help down the lineup and it worked uh the first couple months of the season rodrigues broke his career goal scoring record halfway through the season carter was one of the best third line centers in the league but that is completely tried up in the last 12 games since the start of February their group of bottom six forwards has combined for a total of six goals they're starting to rely on Crosby's line and the top guys more than they want to and that's a big problem against the Panthers we know what Florida does offensively first in the NHL in scoring over four goals a game they scored six last night back six in the last two games where they can take advantage of the Panthers is their defensive depth the bottom pair is pretty much below average, but you can count on the offense to put up three or four goals a night against almost everyone. If the Pittsburgh bottom six group is going to continue to play this poorly, I don't see how they can keep up with Florida. So, yeah, I know the Panthers are on back-to-back here with some travel, but they started their backup goalie last night. So Bobrovsky will be in net tonight. They were up 5-0. in the game last night pretty much when it was halfway over. So they pretty much rested their starters in the third period. I think they'll be fine here. I think the Panthers run away with this one in Pittsburgh here in the Igloo. Just kidding. It used to be called the Igloo where they used to play. Used to love that name. So a level two lock, my Florida Panthers here over the Pittsburgh Penguins.”
4-3 — Florida beat Pittsburgh 4-3; the Panthers moneyline cashes (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Gonzaga minus 13.5 versus San Francisco. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, and this is an interesting matchup here because these two teams played each other twice so far this year in conference playing. Gonzaga won each of those games by 17 points. So, you know, when a team dominates another team, I'm looking, well, can a third time be the charm? And sometimes we find that, yes, it is because that team needs to win. So even if they don't win the game, they keep it close. But I think San Francisco is a lot to be in here. In the first two games, home and away, Gonzaga just pretty much led from start to finish, never challenged here. It's not like either of these teams has had to play a whole lot of games that gave them double buys. So only you have to win two games to win the conference tournament here So I just think that Gonzaga is longer better on the boards more sharp sharpshooters In fact they won 23 straight meetings between these two teams here And I think they may be hanging around the first half here, but I'm laying the points here. I think Gonzaga's going to flex their muscles. They want that number one seed. Blowout special, Gonzaga Bulldogs here over the San Francisco Dons on Monday night.”
81-71 — Gonzaga beat San Francisco 81-71 in the WCC semifinal, a 10-point win that falls short of the -13.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The 76ers minus 6.5 versus the Bulls. Break this one down for us. So here's the problem for Chicago. They're going to have to face a Philadelphia team where James Harden is going to play. But for some reason, I mean, they used the excuse that he had, you know, maybe a hamstring that he was resting. I mean, I'm not buying it. I just think they didn't want to show everything to the Heat, who will probably end up having to play in the playoffs. So Chicago right now, they just don't have the bodies here. I mean, you got two guys that can really score, and Zach Levine and also DeRozan. But those two guys aren't going to have any help. Plus, Bukovic is not going to play in this game, it looks like. He's a game-time decision. So even if he does play, he's not close to 100%, I don't think he can match up with Joel Embiid. Joel Embiid, one of these guys, just dominates him. And so I think he's going to be able to hit threes. I think he's going to dominate inside scoring and on the glass. And then with James Harden back, when they've been together, they've won and covered every single game. So they had problems against the Heat. They didn't have that, but with him back in here, I think they're going to flex their muscle here. So I like what Chicago's done, but they're going to need to have all their bodies back. I know they have a couple other guys that are injured, might be back at the end of the month, but they are struggling right now. Philadelphia might be the best team in the East, even though they're three games back from the Heat and lost that game. So like I said, this is a team that's really dangerous. They not only can score, they play defense. They are long. Once you get into the lane, you got every guy, it seems like, 6'6", 6'7", 6'9", 7'0". So tough, tough matchup here for Chicago. I'm laying the points here. Starting off the week, level two lock. We're going with the Philadelphia 76ers. I think they win this game by double digits over the Chicago Bulls.”
121-106 — Philadelphia beat Chicago 121-106, a 15-point win that covers the 76ers -6.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“I think Denver's going to win this by 20-30. hidden gem. We're going with Denver Nuggets here over the Houston Rockets.”
116-101 — Denver beat Houston 116-101; the Nuggets moneyline cashes (ESPN scoreboard).
“So we're going to go with the blowout special. Rafael Dos Anjos minus the 165 over Renato Mulcona.”
At UFC 272, Rafael dos Anjos defeated Renato Moicano by unanimous decision (Wikipedia, sourced to official UFC results).
“So we're going to go with a level. To end the week, we're going with the Utah Jazz minus 3.5 over the New Orleans Pelicans.”
124-90 — New Orleans routed Utah 124-90; the Jazz -3.5 spread fails badly (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Cougars minus 15 versus Temple Owls. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, and Houston right now, now they're ranked not in the top 10. I think they're like 15, 16, something like that. But they're right now, if you go by all the metrics and some of the rankings, which I go by, I have them as my sixth rated power team. So maybe I have them a little high. Maybe they should be eight or nine. But they're my sixth rated team. What do they do? They pound you on the glass. I mean, if you don't come to play, they'll take the fight right out of you. So people look at Temple. They be like oh 10 and 16 against the spread but 16 and 10 straight up They won three out of four They even beat their last opponent and then lost the last game after that against Memphis. But I just don't think this AL team is going to come to play here. So I like what Houston does here. The ALs also, I rank every team from one to three, 57 at the end of every single week. I have them as my 116th best team. They're going nowhere right now. Not a real good road team. Scoring just a little over 65 points on the road this year. I rank teams also at home and away. Away, I have them as my 270th best team here. I think Houston's going to take the fight right at them. I don't know if I've ever seen the last couple years a team that hits the offensive less like the Cougars do. So you're looking at the line. Most people say 15 points. I'll just skip over it. Sometimes you got to lay it if you want to play out. I'm calling this one a blowout here. Hidden gem, Houston Cougars, big time, probably by 25 to 30 over Temple.”
84-46 — Houston blew out Temple 84-46 in the AAC tournament, crushing the -15 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Oilers' money line, minus 135 versus the Blackhawks. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, this line really surprised me. I made this line here closer to minus 155 to minus 160 for Edmonton. So sometimes when I estimate, when I'm watching these games, while the games are finishing up at night, late night, and usually I'm close, hockey within 5 to 10 cents. I'm thinking, am I missing an injury? Is something going on here? You know, a certain situational play, and I can't find it. I double and I triple-checked, and I can't find it. So I just think these are two teams going in opposite directions here. Edmonton is probably the streakiest team in the NHL, and maybe that's what the linesmakers see, but I don't. Guess what? Right now they're on a hot streak. They're 7-3 the last 10. The power play has come back to life, and the goaltending has also come back to life. So, Mikko Koschkin, this guy was supposed to be their second goalie. He's actually fourth in the league right now in wins and 13th in save percentage on the road. What's funny is Oilers head coach Dave Tippett called him out earlier in the season for not coming up with enough big saves. What happened? Well, Tippett gets fired, and Koschkin, and he ends up 3-0 with just five goals allowed in the last three starts. since his firing sometimes it really just matters that a guy gets a head coach uh change and and just turns their season around so on the other side of things here um chicago is they just are really looking like a team with a bunch of guys um you know probably just going through the motions here going through a rebuild. They're 4-12 since mid-January, and just one of those four wins came against a team currently in a playoff position. Of course that win was against these Oilers but that gives us a pretty quick revenge spot here for Edmonton And Edmonton a different team right now compared to when they played a few weeks ago So give me the Edmonton Oilers here with plenty of motivation and new outlook on their season. I think this is going to be like a 4-1, 5-2-5.”
4-3 — Chicago beat Edmonton 4-3 in overtime; the Oilers moneyline bet busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“I like Memphis. Minus one. I think this line's going to go up. So get on it early. We're going to go with a level three lock. Memphis Grizzlies over the Boston Celtics on Thursday night.”
120-107 — Boston beat Memphis 120-107, a 13-point Celtics win, so Memphis -1 fails to cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Alabama, minus 10.5 versus the Aggies. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So the Aggies are 1-3 out of 4. I mean, people, they had a nice run early in the season, then they fell off. I think they lost like six seven in a row And then the last three out of four have looked great They knocked off Florida a couple weeks ago and the last two wins have been by double digits and they looked good So getting double digits, we're a team that's hot. You don't want to go against them. Now, when you watch Alabama, they can score, and you're like, well, you know, you've got to write a team that can score at home, but just not of late. Just things are not looking good for this offense here. I just think that the Aggies, which come into this game ranked 81st and Ken Palm's adjusted offensive rankings, are probably top 20 or 30 over the last couple weeks here. And all of a sudden, their three-point shooting, which was awful. They've moved up like 50, 60 points in the last two weeks. So Alabama might have a similar record to Texas A&M, but they're going to be a pretty high seed in the tournament. But right now, just things aren't clicking here offensively for them. So they are ranked ninth in adjusted efficiency. And they love to get out on transition. They love to run here. But the three-point percentage has not been good, just 31.2%. And this is a team right now, Texas A&M, that's defense also improving here. They're just dominating the boards here. So while Alabama is one of the most talented teams in the country, sometimes that talent just does not transition into meeting expectations. And that's what I'm seeing with this team here. You know, this team that can beat anyone in the country, like Gonzaga and Baylor, but they put up some really bad games this year. They lost to Iona and Georgia. And how about this? They are 4th and 16 against the spread the last 20 games. You can't lay double digits with a team that's not playing well against a team that's got a lot of confidence right now. So A&M's playing their best basketball of the season here. We're taking the double-digit points here. Wrong team favorite, Texas A&M.”
87-71 — Texas A&M beat Alabama 87-71 outright, easily covering the +10.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. the blues money line minus 105 versus the rangers thoughts on this one lee yeah this is probably the biggest game of the night across the league uh with minnesota continuing to drop games st louis running away with second in the central division and uh the rangers are chasing second in the metro division so both of these teams have played well all year long defensively their goaltending has been even better than anticipated and overall they're both in the top six in terms of goals against but there's one big thing that the blues have an advantage over new york and it's their size the blues have nine get this nine regulars in the lineup that are six three or taller and when they won the stanley cup uh they did it they were physical um they've done a good job of taking advantage of that even this year even though the game is less physical nowadays compared to the past the blues are one of those teams that has maintained their ability to use size as an advantage and uh this is one way to get some high quality chances against i think a younger and less intimidating team like the rangers so uh numbers back it up here rangers goaltending unit has really saved them this year The defensive group has been caving all year long They rank 28th in the NHL in shot attempts against and also 25th in high danger chances against. So your goaltender here can only take you so long, and it can only cover for you when you're giving up that many chances. The Rangers goaltending has been one of the best in the league this year, But I like the Blues here to put up enough to secure the close win on this one here. So St. Louis has also won 10 of the last 14 of Madison Square Garden. Some teams just get up coming into New York City like I did when I went to root for my heat the other night. So I think they're going to make it 11 out of 15 here. So we're going to go with the St. Louis Blues money line here. Blowout special over the New York Rangers.”
5-3 — The Rangers beat St. Louis 5-3, so Blues moneyline backers lost (ESPN box score).
“I'm laying the seven points here. Davidson, hidden gem tonight should be a nice, easy hidden gem for us.”
73-62 — Davidson beat George Mason 73-62, an 11-point margin that covered the -7 spread (ESPN box score).
“give me the Blue Jackets I think they're going to win this game something like 5-3 6-3 here blowout special Columbus Blue Jackets money line minus 125 five over the New Jersey Devils.”
4-3 — Columbus beat New Jersey 4-3, winning outright as moneyline favorites (ESPN box score).
“So I think the long team's favorite here. Too many points here. Michigan State, they win this game outright over Michigan and Ann Arbor.”
87-70 — Michigan beat Michigan State 87-70 outright, so Michigan State moneyline backers lost (ESPN box score).
“BenOnline.net line for this one. The Celtics, minus seven versus the Hawks. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So these two teams are sitting sixth and ninth. And there are clearly some really good teams in the Eastern Conference. Eastern Conference is king. first round, whoever these top four teams are, they are not going to have buys. I think we're going to see an upset. One of these top four teams, it could be like Milwaukee after winning the title. Last year, they haven't looked right all year. Could be another team. Could be Miami Heat if they have to match up with Boston or the Atlanta Hawks. So these two teams scare me. But the problem here is Atlanta isn't at full strength. So John Collins is out. He's going to miss this game. So is Lou Williams. So they really only have like eight guys that play significant minutes. I like Gallinari off the bench. He's one of these just snipers. He comes off the bench. He can get three or four threes and ignite your team. Same with Lou Williams. But Gallinari's been forced to start here. Both these teams are playing pretty well. I mean, Atlanta's won 12 of the last 18. Trey Young, even in the last game, had 41 points and 11 assists. But Boston right now, number two defensive team in the NBA. And all of a sudden, since a trade right before the deadline, looks like they're coming on. They've won 11 out of the last 13 games. And I just think that they're heaping mad. They just did not play well when they played against Indiana in their last game. So I think they're going to bounce back here. And here's something that's crazy. So the Celtics are 20-11 at home this year. but atlanta won and 11 against this fred the last 12 road games against teams with a home winning percentage above 600 and that's boston here so i think boston's going to take care of business here sometimes you got to lay it if you want to play it here level two lock here boston celtics at home over the atlanta hawks boom there it is right there level two lock little nba action celtics”
107-98 — Boston beat Atlanta 107-98, a 9-point margin that covered the -7 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Milwaukee minus 10 versus the Hornets. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Well, Milwaukee better get their stuff together. I mean, the Eastern Conference, Philadelphia 76ers of the story right now. I mean, you see what's going on since James Harden showed up there. Him and Joel Embiid look unstoppable. So I'd have to put them as a favorite. I mean, they may not have much of a bench right now, but at starting five, it looks like it might be the best in the NBA. In Milwaukee, we see this happen over and over. NBA teams that win the title the next year, they run through the regular season, and they're just on cruise control. And that's what we're seeing with Milwaukee, the loss for the last five. Charlotte, all of a sudden they are playing awful basketball, losing 10 of 12. They did come out of the break and they won the first game, beat Toronto by 33, but lost to Detroit at home. But I just think that they, you know, maybe we're just, you know, looking ahead to this game here. And what's best after you lose a game to get right back on the court and play the next day? And that's Charlotte. And Charlotte is one of these teams as a favorite. I almost never take Charlotte. I think I've taken them once in the last year as a favorite. But I love Charlotte as an underdog. Firepower. People don't realize this. Number one scoring NBA team. That's right. Number one scoring. Might be 28th in defense, but Milwaukee's not great this year. Right in the middle as far as defense in the NBA. So, like I said, I think they're sleepwalking, laying 10.5 points. Too much here. Wrong team favorite. We're going to Charlotte Hornets, plus 10.5 at home tonight to get the week off to a nice quick start.”
130-106 — Milwaukee beat Charlotte 130-106, a 24-point margin, so Charlotte +10.5 backers lost (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Miami Heat minus four versus the Bulls. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Two coaches that are so under the radar. Billy Donovan, done a great job with the Chicago team so far this year. Some people thought he was still coaching in Oklahoma City. And Eric Spolstra, what a masterful job he did. I saw them Friday night against the Knicks. I mean, they started off the game down 10-0. He was patient. Led his team, put it together, brought in Tyler Hero. Tyler Hero is on a roll, scoring mid-20s the last two games. but what he did at the end of the last game against san antonio i love start of the fourth quarter he takes out jimmy butler and he asked jimmy butler how are you and jimmy butler said something to the effect like i'm okay you know um little tired a little sore and what did he do set jimmy butler for the fourth quarter let some of his other guys take over tyler hero and mates and what did they do they went on like an 18 to 2 run they did hold on in the end san antonio hit a bunch of threes in the last minute of the game, but you know, you gotta like something like that. You can't play the same exact guys, same minutes every single game. He's got a lot of depth here. Chicago, DeMar DeRozan been incredible I mean this stretch that we seeing right now one of the best of all time Seems like he scores 30 points every single game But he just not getting the help with Ball out Caruso out They just don't have the depth here. I think Miami with the off day, I think Eric Spolster is going to know how to get his mates ready here, get his players ready to go here. Should be a bunch of scoring here, but I just think Miami has more depth here, playing at home here. Chicago lost their last game. They have not been the same since the All-Star break. I like Miami. I'm going to lay the small spot here. Low-out special. Miami Heat over the Chicago Bulls for first place here.”
112-99 — Miami beat Chicago 112-99, a 13-point margin that covered the -4 spread (ESPN box score).
“San Diego State at Wyoming San Diego State the Aztecs are 18 Wyoming is 23 BenOnline line for this one San Diego State minus one and a half at Wyoming Thoughts on this one, Lee? And the game is at the Dome of Doom. I mean, what are the best games we've seen? It's arena. If you look at it, it's one of the old styles. I mean, it's completely in the round. But they packed the house here. I mean, it's been sold out for weeks. This game has. Now, San Diego State played some great defense. I mean, they're really good. Number two in the country in defense. But offense, just 65.6 points per game. Put them 308th out of 357 teams. They only have one guy, Matt Bradley, scoring double figures. That's it. This is a team. This is a conference so underrated and has performed better than people thought. You know, we talk about, like, the ACC's down this year. You know, there's only Duke and pretty much everyone else, it seems like, that can make a run. But I think they're going to have four, maybe five teams in the tournament. Is that loaded here? But you've got to score also. And Matt Bradley, 16.7 points per game, 5.3 rebounds. But I don't know if we've ever seen a team make a tournament with only one guy in a long time in double figures. Wyoming right up there in scoring, top 50, top 50 in defense here, and at home almost unbeatable here. So they can knock down threes. They can go inside. I like the versatility. I like their coaching staff led by Jeff Linder. It's a guy that grew up in Denver. He knows it. He recruits the area. He was a Wyoming fan when he grew up as a kid here. So in his second season, had a good season last year. But this season, everything's coming together at home. Give me one and a half points here. I'm taking the Cowboys, the Wyoming Cowboys.”
73-66 — San Diego State beat Wyoming 73-66, a 7-point margin that exceeded Wyoming's +1.5, so Wyoming backers lost (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Zerukian minus 220 versus Alvarez. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, second fight of the main card, UFC fight night. And the main card's going to start at 7 Eastern, so this is going to probably start about 745 or so. Zerukian takes on Alvarez, 155-pound lightweight division. Both of the fighters are impressive young prospects. Zerukian 17 record like you said Alvarez 19 Zerukian just 25 years old 4 in the UFC his only loss coming in his debut versus a possible future champion against Isom Makachev. Makachev is very impressive, 28-year-old Alvarez, 4-1 in the UFC, after losing his debut to a very impressive Demir Osvaldogulov. So the difference between the two is what Alvarez has been doing to his opponents since his opening loss. And Alvarez's four wins, he has two KOs and two submissions. And all have been pretty impressive fashion. In fact, in his last outing, he actually destroyed Diego Moises, a fighter who went into the fourth round with Makachev and also defeated Bobby Green. Alvarez stands 6'3", huge for the division. Remember, just 155 pounds, which is evidenced by him. He missed weight in his last two bouts, coming in 3.5 and 1.5 pounds over the 156-pound limit. Alvarez does have to worry about the takedowns of Zerukian, but very dangerous man here to take down. He has outstanding elbows. We talk about kicks and other disciplines, but those elbows are scary good, and he can submit his opponent in many ways. I just believe that Alvarez is not long for the division. I think they're going to make him move up here. He might even miss weight by a couple pounds, might have to lose some of the salary, but just too big for that. And combined with his rapidly improving striking and top-notch jiu-jitsu, I think it's going to carry him to a victory here against a very impressive but still young opponent here in Zerukian. So bet a little, win a whole lot. We're going with Joel Alvarez. For every $100 you wager, you win $180.”
Arman Tsarukyan defeated Joel Alvarez by TKO (punches) in round 2 at 1:57 at UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green, so Alvarez moneyline backers lost (UFC.com official result).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Texas State minus two versus Troy. This is the wrong team favorite, Lee. Tell us why. Yeah, so the Trojans actually beat the Bobcats, 78-63, six-point dog on December 30th. Just dominated the game and just felt, I'm watching this game, I'm like, boy, they got the wrong team favorite in this game here. And, you know, wasn't playing the game, just taking notes here. Now, Texas State, some people say, oh, well, they want to get revenge here. But we're getting to the end of the regular season. They're locked in. They're the first seed in the Sunbelt tournament with 11-3 record. And Troy, they could be anywhere from 2, 3, or 4. So this is a big game for them here. I think their defense really seems to match up real well with Texas State here and home game here. And I just think Texas State, the big game for them was their last game. They locked up that number one seed. Just think that they're going to be relaxed here. and not going to be focused. I like Troy at home. This is a tough team, getting better as the season goes on. Wrong team favorite, Troy Trojans, plus the two points at home against Texas State.”
66-61 — Texas State beat Troy 66-61, a 5-point margin, so Troy +2 backers lost (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Jazz minus six versus the Mavs. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, and Rudy Gobert is back. And since he's been back, their starting lineup is solidified. And they have a strong bench. I mean, everyone knows about Jordan Clarkson. He is certainly having a well of a season. And then Hassan Whiteside, I mean, he was like an afterthought. I mean, this guy playing just 18 minutes. Listen to this. 18 minutes, he's averaging 8.7 points and 7.8 rebounds. I don't think you can find anyone else out there playing less than 20 minutes, getting almost eight rebounds. So playing good defense also. Go Bear and Whiteside really clogged up the lane. They can shoot threes. And here's the problem for Dallas. I just think Dallas is playing over their heads. I think they're going to hit the wall here now. So I saw them, I think it was about a week and a half ago. So they came to Miami, and I'm watching Luka Doncic warm up. And I think he's 15, 20 pounds overweight. So I know he has that problem always going into the season, losing weight. but this might be the first season he's gaining weight during the season. Just not moving well. You know, he can still score, you know, in the regular season, but when you play a tough team like Utah, the play's defense, really well coached, it's going to be tough. And then they traded away Porzingis. So, you know, this is a team that they've got a lot of just, you know, spare parts. I think Luka's still really good, but they're going to try to do it without a true center. They have Dwight Powell listed as 6'10". He's like 6'8". Really good guy off the bench, but not a guy that can start. They got guys that come off the bench like Bertrand you know if he scoring fine Maxie Cleaver fine you know if they scoring but zero defense The only guy that really tries out there, it seems to me, is Jalen Brunson, so a guy that's been an overachiever. But I just think they're going up against 18. The play's defense here, at home, really tough to play. And we talked about Utah. Six out of seven is what they've won. and you fall asleep on Utah and then you look up, they won like 17 out of 18 games here. I'm going to lay the six points in Utah here. Blowout special over the Dallas Mavericks.”
114-109 — Utah beat Dallas 114-109, only a 5-point margin that fell short of the -6 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Miami of Ohio minus 10 for Central Michigan. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, and if you look at the records, you're thinking, God, you want to lay double digits when you're under .500? But there's some things to this game I like layers. Now, Miami of Ohio can score, believe it or not, with a 12-15 record, certainly in the top half, 158 in adjusted efficiency on offense. There's 300 and I think 57 teams, so at least they can score. You don't want to pick a team you're laying double digits. they can't score. But how about this? I don't know if I've ever seen this before, Q. Their strength is they don't turn the ball over. Just number 10 in the country, not turning the ball over. So usually a team under 500, you don't see this. And here's something crazy. These two things combined really impressed me. They're number three, free throw percentage as a team. hit 80.5% of their free throws. So let's say if they're up by 12, 13, 14 points, they start getting fouled with two, three minutes to go, going to knock down the free throws. Even if it's seven or eight points, probably going to knock down the free throws. The other team's going to have to hit threes to cover. So I like their lead player guard. You'll love this name, Day Day Grant. Day Day leads Miami of Ohio 17.3 points per game. Also, 4.8 rebounds and four assists. A couple other guys really chip in well. And they got a kid named Delonte Brown, team best 6.3 rebounds per game, playing a lot of minutes and doesn't seem to bother him here. I think this is going to be a nice one here. We're going to go with a hidden gem here. Miami of Ohio, minus 10. They might win this game by 20 to 25 points over Central Michigan.”
83-69 — Central Michigan beat Miami (OH) 83-69 outright, so Miami (OH) -10 backers lost (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Predators money line, minus 145 versus Stars. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so the Stars played last night, and they did it with their number one goalie, and that against Winnipeg. and the game went exactly how most stars games go this year. They had the advantage in shots uh and attempts on goal but they weren necessarily high chances Even on the power play just not real impressive Winnipeg actually blew two leads in the game. Then their own goalie batted the puck into the net to lose in overtime. So it's not like the Stars played some impressive game that might have been a spark here that will lead them to another win tonight. So now you've got Dallas in a back-to-back game with a pretty significant travel disadvantage where they have to go to Nashville, a division rival. Dallas also used their number one goalie last night. They're going to have to start their backup tonight. The Predators, they're going to be retiring. Their star goaltender, Pekka Rennie's jersey, before the game. And that's the first jersey they've actually ever retired. So the building is going to be rocking. I don't think the Stars will be able to get up for this game mentally. I see this game as a blowout here. So I just think this is a great situational play here. Blowout special, Nashville by two or three goals over Dallas tonight.”
2-1 — Nashville beat Dallas 2-1 in a shootout, winning outright as moneyline favorites (ESPN box score).
“But hey they be back once KD gets back BetOnline line for this one Boston minus seven and a half versus the nets thoughts on this one lee yes and no kd for a while longer uh no kyrie everton home home games that might get rescinded in the next couple weeks but not tonight and ben simmons did you hear the nonsense he was talking that he's going to come back and and his first game i'm hearing he he or is representing someone saying leaking out that it might be against Philadelphia. Philadelphia, he wants no part of that. People will be climbing over themselves to get in that building. They'll pay $300, $400, $500 just to boo his ass. So I just think this is a bad situation for a team right now struggling. Hey, they might get it together, but they'd be in the play-in tournament right now without those three guys. And, I mean, they're doing it like the spare parts. Patty Mills might be the best guy on this team. Andre Drummond starting at center. He was playing limited minutes. Bruce Brown. The list goes on. Guys that their best days have passed them by. LaMarcus Aldridge. He's going to have to play great. Blake Griffin. They've lost 12 of the last 14 games. This Boston team is now burying teams when they're struggling here. So you've got a team that scores in Boston. plays good defense people don't realize what kind of defense they're top five in the league in defense so i'm laying the seven points here we're gonna go about level two lock boston celtics”
129-106 — Boston beat Brooklyn 129-106, a 23-point margin that easily covered the -7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Taking on George Mason's 13-12, the betonline.net line for this one. Commonwealth minus 6.5 versus George Mason. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, a lot of people don't even know the nicknames, let alone. You know what these teams are about? It the Virginia Commonwealth Rams against the George Mason Patriots Now I mean these teams are solid teams Junior Commonwealth they make the tournament it seems like on a consistent basis George Mason used to be coached by Miami coach Laranaga. So, I mean, steep in tradition, play well. But here's the problem for George Mason. They are just not a real good team. They're right in the middle of the pack. They're sitting in eighth place in the A-10. Virginia Commonwealth second. They'd like to get that first seed for the conference tournament. They won the first game 85-7, 70 here. Six and one against the spread of the last seven home games. A lot of people don't realize one of the toughest places to play, they packed a house for their home games in Richmond. Also, you got one of the key players for George Mason, Ronald Polite III, still out. He was their third guard to start the year. They started really strong without him, his 15, 20 minutes a night. They just can't keep up against solid teams and teams that play elite defense like Virginia Commonwealth here. Virginia Commonwealth is starting to score now. I'm laying the six and a half points here. Hidden gem, Virginia Commonwealth Rams over the George Mason Patriots here”
72-66 — VCU beat George Mason 72-66, a 6-point margin that fell short of the -6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Texas minus 8.5 versus TCU. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so Texas is not a score. I mean, I think that loss to Texas Tech was just so demoralizing. I mean, listen to some of the comments of the players and the coach after the game. And they put their heart and soul that they get game. They've lost the first game at Tech. And they wanted to somehow salvage the two-game series and win a game. And they just could not get it done here. So mentally, I don't know if they can all of a sudden get back up for a team that they beat pretty easily, 73-50. And that game at TCU, TCU was two for 16 from three-point land. And Texas, also an uncharacteristic here, 8 for 18 in that game here. Texas forward Trey Mitchell still out, and he's kind of that guy like Baylor's guy that they bring off the bench, you know, and averages 8.5 points per game, over 4 rebounds per game, comes in, gives you 20, 25 minutes, plays hard, makes everything else work much, much better. So nine of the 15 games here Texas has played in conference play. They scored 66 or less points here. In fact, four of them, 56 or less points, second worst in scoring in the Big 12. So, what, like, eight and a half points, really, for a team that's not a score. It's just like in football when you see a team, you know, probably better than the other team, but laying double digits. You don't want to do it here. So don't ask a team to all of a sudden start scoring like crazy. Just think that TCU is improving since that game. They're 26 in efficiency, really tough on the glass here. They'll have all the motivation. These are two teams probably headed for the tournament. TCU on the bubble, Texas will get in, but big game for TCU. They're going to come to play here. So we're going to take the 8.5 points here. Wrong team favorite, TCU over the Texas Longhorns.”
75-66 — Texas beat TCU 75-66, a 9-point margin, so TCU's +8.5 backers lost (ESPN box score).
“losses betonline.net line for this one we're going to roll coyotes versus kings over five and a half goals, minus 125. Thoughts on this one? Break it down for us, Lee. Alright, before I break this down, I just want to drop some big news to everyone. We've done these contests before, and I'm going to drop one tonight. All you need to do is predict the biggest college basketball underdog that wins outright. So, if you pick a four and a half point underdog and they win outright, probably going to be someone who beat you. So, might want to look at some, you know, high single digits, maybe a couple double-digit underdogs, whoever predicts the largest underdog that wins outright, you or if there's five or ten people that predict it are going to win an entire rest of the season of basketball and hockey through June, through the NHL finals, through the NBA finals, college basketball, and NBA. So DM me at Paramount Sports on Twitter and predict the college, basketball biggest winner outright and you got a shot to maybe take home the rest of the season for basketball and hockey. Now on to the business at hand here. Now you talk about a game that like this almost made my hidden gem but it a lock I don think many people are going to be looking at this game seriously largely due to Arizona being involved but this is why you track every team throughout the season and pick and choose your spots to bet on teams. The thing is, I don't think this is the game to pick a side. L.A. over minus 200 in this game, and rightfully so. But I do think the over is the play. The Kings have caught fire offensively for a pretty large sample size since the end of December, averaging 3.4 goals per game over that span of 19 games. And they're doing something they haven't done since the Stanley Cup run here a couple years ago. They're getting scoring from the back end. They really struggled to get scoring from defensemen outside of Drew Doughty the last few years. But now they have four different defensemen with over 10 points, and you can see how much it changes their offense as they've scored three-plus goals here in six of the last seven. But what makes this game really interesting is how Arizona has played of late. They had a really good stretch of games in December and January. They went 5-3-2, and they're 3-4 in their last seven games, but they're putting up goals right now in their own right. They've scored three-plus goals in five of the last seven, and over is 7-0-1 in their last eight against the Pacific. You should feel safe here getting at least two goals from the Coyotes in this one. And I don't think the Kings are going to have problems scoring on their own here. I see something like a 4-3, 5-3 final. So what we're going to do is we're going to go with a level two lock over in the Arizona L.A. Kings game.”
3-2 — Kings beat Coyotes 3-2; the combined 5 goals stayed under the 5.5 total (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. Anaheim Ducks, Moneyline, minus 145 versus Sharks. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so this is the last of six games tonight in the NHL. It's on the West Coast. It's a 10 p.m. Eastern time zone start with two teams that people haven't paid much attention to. Most people around the country. I can't remember the last time I saw someone wearing a San Jose Sharks hat or any type of gear. Same for Anaheim. I think last time was when Anaheim was the Mighty Ducks, as a matter of fact. But neither of these teams were projected to do anything at all this season. But both groups were in the playoff conversation just a few weeks ago. Now the Sharks' goaltending has totally fallen apart. I mean, this is some bad goaltending. So it was the only thing that was keeping them in postseason contention here for a while. And now, over the last 20 games, the Sharks 7-9-4 are the goalies here, giving up 3.7 goals per game. That's a save percentage of just 8-86. The Ducks, though, did stay in postseason contention. I don't know if they don't have enough of a fan base to get credit that they deserve, but they're only nine points out of first in the Pacific Division, which everyone assumed was Calgary's and Vegas's to win. They have a rough stretch that they just went through, four-game losing streak, but they broke out for a seven-game goal here performance on Saturday night, and they're playing their biggest rival tonight at home, first time all season, despite being in the same division. Weird sometimes how scheduling breaks out. So you know Anaheim is really looking forward to this game. They have a chance to pull away from the rest of the pack in the division here and stay in the hunt. I think this is going to be a 4-1 or 5-1 blowout. So we'll go with the Hidden Gem Anaheim Ducks here.”
ANA 4, SJ 3 (SO) — Anaheim beat San Jose 4-3 in a shootout, winning the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one Miami minus 3.5 at Pittsburgh What are your thoughts on this one? Break it down for us Well we just call it you know now it called the U There you go the U Back in the day it was the real or we used to joke about it when the education wasn great before they got to the top hundred As far as education, we used to call it Notre Dame of the South. Joke about it. Or we're suntan you. But there you go. Right now, it looks like, you know, all three programs, football with Mario Cristobal, his hiring and all the assistants, his star studded cast of assistants. Baseball is always notoriously good consistently right up there. And basketball, they had a couple bad seasons. I mean, they had a situation. You remember the Adidas recruiting thing? Yes, yes. And it turned out they were not at fault. In fact, you know, the NCAA isn't going to say that, but no charges, no nothing. But for two years, one year they didn't get a recruit. They had two guys committed, two top 50 guys, and they decided to go elsewhere. The next year, recruiting fell off. So for about a three-year period, I mean, injuries and recruiting. But they got two guys to come back, Magusty and Wang. And these two guys, you know, fifth-year seniors, decided they weren't going to go high in the draft. And they really, you know, made this team a really good team. And then Charlie Miller, a guy that he's been around. I mean, this guy was most recently at DePaul, you know, at two schools before that. But he's like the glue. So they can score. They're averaging 74.5 points per game here. They're playing a team, Pittsburgh, that has played better recently, lost their last game. But Jeff Capel, I just don't think he's the right guy. He's in the third season. They're just not talented enough on offense. In fact, bottom 20 in the country, averaging to 62.5 points per game here. So this Miami team right on the bubble here. Some people have a 9, a 10 seed. A few people have them out of the tournament. So they need to bounce back. They had Virginia start second half. They were 50-40, and then Virginia went on a 23-4 run. So Miami's had trouble against a couple teams. Florida State, when they were healthy, lost two games by one point, lost both games to Virginia, but haven't lost many other games. They're right up there near the top in the conference here. I just think that they have the scoring here. And then Pitt, free throws, only 70%. I mean, right near the bottom again. So I'm going to lay the three-and-a-half points here. I like Miami here. Blowout special over Pitt.”
Miami 85, Pittsburgh 64 — Miami beat Pittsburgh 85-64, covering -3.5 (ESPN team schedule/box score).
“Betonline.net line for this one. Arkansas minus one versus Florida. Break this one down for us. Yeah. I mean, these are two teams coming off huge wins. I mean, Arkansas, they take care of Tennessee at home. Florida knocks off number two, Auburn. So a lot on the line here. So one of the reasons I really like Arkansas is they have a guy that comes down, and this game might be close, J.D. Notte. This guy, if you need a big shot, he gets the job done. He can create things on their own. And we notice all the time, you know, teams going for three-pointers the last shot. But he likes to drive the ball. He can also hit those three-pointers. So just think that this Florida team might have laid it all on the line against Auburn. Didn't think Auburn played especially well here. And then the Razorbacks, they play defense. So if you look at both teams, what does one team do the best? and it's Arkansas's defense. They create turnovers, make things really tough. They get 24-second violations here. So I have a lot of problem figuring this Florida team out here. I just don't think they're going to bounce back here emotionally. Maybe one of the biggest wins ever in the Florida basketball as far as history. And Arkansas red hot here. They've won 11 of the last 12 games overall here. I just think that that defense rebounding, the pressure they put on the ball there, they rotate. They can play eight, nine guys, and their sub's just as good a starter. So I think Arkansas here, minus the one point, that's the play here. Level one lock over the Florida Gators.”
Arkansas 82, Florida 74 — Arkansas beat Florida 82-74, covering -1 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline line for this one SIU minus 9 SIU minus 9 versus Eastern Illinois Break this one down for us Lee Okay so the Hidden Gems have just been on fire and found another one SIU Edwardsville When they played earlier in the season against Eastern Illinois, they were favored by six and won by 13 at Eastern Illinois. But, boy, were they hot. 14 for 24 from three-point land, and they're not especially a good three-point shooting team. They're just hot that day. Eastern Illinois was five for 26 in that game. So SIU Edgardsville, they have a big rivalry game coming up after this game. But where's the motivation? This is one of the things you get to February. I talked to a bunch of bookmakers and they tell me, you know, this is a time of year where they make their most money because people play favorites, college basketball. They say, Oh, This team beat this team by so many points, they'll do it again. Well, not the case. There's just not the motivation. Teams that still have a little play for, you know, if you get the last day or two before you start the conference tournament, then teams start giving up. But they've still got a couple weeks. So I just think that Eastern Illinois at home will come to play here. Getting nine points here. This is my hidden gem. Eastern Illinois is going to take this game right down to the wire here. nine points way too many points to be given up on the road two teams that absolutely stink to you”
SIU Edwardsville 66, Eastern Illinois 52 — SIU Edwardsville beat Eastern Illinois 66-52; Eastern Illinois +9 fails to cover (ESPN team schedule/box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Canadians, plus one and a half goals, plus 130 versus the Maple Leafs. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yes, I rarely play the plus one and a half bet on the underdog in the NHL, especially because empty net goals are so common. And you don't get backdoor covers in hockey like you do in other sports. But I think this is the time to do it. Montreal fired their head coach a few days ago, and they hired Martin St. Louis. And I think he's lit a fire under this team. This team hadn't won consecutive games all season until their second and third games under the new head coach. They won three to two yesterday over the Islanders. Tonight, they're getting a banged up lease team here with Austin Matthews, not 100 percent. And Jack Campbell struggling in the net recently. I've watched the last few games of the Canadians here, and they're finally playing like they enjoy the game and much more free-flowing with the puck. I think they can give Toronto some problems here and at least keep it close and might take overtime for this one here. Right team-favored Montreal Canadiens, plus the one-and-a-half goals tonight against Toronto.”
MTL 5, TOR 2 — Montreal beat Toronto 5-2; Canadiens margin +3 covers +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Baylor minus four versus Oklahoma State. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so most people probably just, you know, fly over this one. They're like, oh, okay. Baylor, you know, nice record. Things are looking good. but they played Oklahoma State early in the year at home, and they were in the middle of just a bad, bad stretch. They lost 61-54. They get a shot here at a rematch, and the line is low. They've been sharing the ball really well. When they beat TCU on Saturday, 72-62, sharing the ball. I mean, just moving it around, and I think that's going to create some problems here for an Oklahoma State that just they're not at this level here. So I like the rematch angle here. I like the fact here that the Cowboys had to go to overtime to beat Kansas State here. Just not Oklahoma State, not a team that plays at a high level. Six and eight in conference play here. So I think that even though Baylor a little banged up, they shortened the rotation only playing seven, eight guys, I think it's enough. I'm going to lay the four points here. Baylor Bears blowout special in the Big 12 for Oklahoma State.”
Baylor 66, Oklahoma State 64 — Baylor beat Oklahoma State 66-64 in overtime; Baylor's +2 margin fails to cover -4 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net, line for this one. UCLA minus 14 versus Arizona State. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so this game reminds me of the game yesterday between Purdue and Rutgers. So people, the public, will be playing Purdue yesterday, and they did. The line started at like 11.5-12. It closed at 13 And what happened Didn cover Why Because they weren playing especially well in their opponent Rutgers had won four straight I mean Rutgers had absolutely been on a roll They beat Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Those are four teams that will probably be going to the tournament here. So teams were finding out, even that are not good teams, not going to the tournament, they don't quit just yet. And Arizona State's one of those teams. In fact, they've won the last three games on the road. They beat Washington State, who's decent, at home, took out Oregon 81-57, and then destroyed Oregon State. So they're coming in with a lot of confidence. They already beat UCLA 87-84. I know that Bobby Hurley, there's a shot that he may be gone, but they're playing hard for them now. And Zizang, he's out for this game, for UCLA. So where are the points going to come? I mean, this Arizona State team can play defense. No one scored 60 points, in fact, in the last three games here. So you've got a team that plays defense. You've got a team that believes in themselves right now. Getting a lot of points, double-digit points. Level one lock, Arizona State covers against UCLA tonight.”
UCLA 66, Arizona State 52 — UCLA beat Arizona State 66-52, a margin of exactly 14 points, pushing the +14 line (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Hurricanes, minus 1.5 goals, plus 140 versus the Predators. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So I see two teams moving in different directions here. Nashville, nice story, fun story beginning of the year. contending with Colorado for first in the Central Division, but they just don't have the consistency up and down the lineup to keep up. When your top guys slow down for a couple of games, you have to have guys and have depth to step in and pick up the lack of goal scoring. They just don't have it right now. They're 4-6-2 in the last 12 games and lost four of the last five on the road. Now, Carolina has lost four of the last five overall, but look at who they played. This is the NHL's gauntlet right now. They lost to Toronto in overtime on a couple of questionable calls, I thought. They lost to Ottawa, which was a bad loss, but they beat Boston 6-0, and then they lost to Minnesota and Florida each by one goal Three of those losses are to some of the biggest contenders in postseason right now And I really like to back a good team off a tough loss or in this case, a couple of close losses here. And I just don't see Nashville keeping up here. They're going to need some kind of miraculous goaltending performance that they haven't gotten in weeks. And Carolina, we also talk about layers all the time. They have won 18 of the last 23 against the Preds. I think they make it 19 here with plenty of cushion. Bet a little, win a whole lot. Carolina Hurricanes, minus the one and a half goals, plus 140.”
CAR 5, NSH 3 — Carolina beat Nashville 5-3; Hurricanes margin +2 covers -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Oakland minus three and a half versus Wright State. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so these two teams played 13 days ago. And in that game, Oakland couldn't shoot straight if you were sitting right underneath the basket. How bad were they from three-point land? Two for 18, their starters were. You're two for 18. You're not going to win too many games. On the defensive end, play really good basketball. They're ranked 91st right now. They apply a lot of pressure, 94 feet. So they go end-to-end, and they wear teams down at home. They've won every single game at home this year except for Michigan State. Nothing to feel sorry about losing at home there in a close game. So this is going to be a tough team here for Wright State. And Oakland, they're second right now in the conference. They want to stay there. They don't want to end up third or fourth. Wright State is fourth. So big rivalry game here. Michigan and Ohio. This isn't Michigan versus Ohio State. It's Oakland versus Wright State. But I think at home, Oakland's the play here looking for revenge. I'll lay the three and a half points here. Hidden gem, Oakland University. I think the Grizzlies take care of business tonight against Wright State.”
Oakland 74, Wright State 78 — Wright State beat Oakland 78-74; Oakland's -4 margin fails to cover -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“and Benitez is 22 and nine betonline.net line for this one Onama silent assassin minus 145 versus Magli Benitez. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? So it's the fifth fight of the preliminary card in the 145-pound featherweight division. Benitez holds a significant experience advantage here. He's going to be entering the octagon for the 12th time. Well, the highly thought-of prospect Onama is going to be making the walk only for the second time and actually sporting an 0-1-1 record. So the UFC does this time and time again. They'll have a guy that's been around. He might hang around for maybe another two, three fights, but they have him fight the prospects. So Benitez is never going to go anywhere, but they think a lot of Onama. Onama's first outing, he stepped in last-minute replacement, which is really tough to do, up a division and faced a very tough opponent in Mason Jones, and more than held his own in the stand-up. He did lose a close decision, 29-28. But what Onama does is he's really good with takedowns here. And he's really good at defending them. He not going to have to worry about that here Benitez only one takedown in his UFC career Onama trains with glory MMA You like sounds familiar James Krause veteran I don know if he going to still fight one or two more fights, but he's right now talked about as maybe the top trainer right now in the country in the top gym. His fighters, I noticed, are well-trained, well-conditioned, and I love the strategy that they have in their fight. So they seem to always have that competitive advantage. I expect Onama to dominate the stand-up all three rounds and possibly finish Benitez off in round two or three. And just think the only thing he has to worry about here is Benitez's kicks, and it's tough to finish a guy in kicks with only three rounds. So when it's all said and done, the silent assassin will start to make some noise in the UFC as we all get to witness the talent of a possible future title contender. So I just think that you're, you're, you're seeing the line and you're like, wow, how can a guy own one be favored against a guy who's six and five in the octagon? Well, he's more talented. The first fight kind of throws people off because he took it on short notice and he also had to fight up 10 pounds. So, um, you know, they, they, they, they schedule these fights all the time. There's a reason why he's favored here. I think this is a great one here. We're going to go with a level two lock to end the weekend here. The Silent Assassin, David Onama over Gabriel Benitez.”
David Onama defeated Gabriel Benitez by first-round KO/TKO at 4:24 (UFC.com official result).
“BetOnline.net. Live for this one. Towson minus 3.5 versus North Carolina Wilmington. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so people, if you're a big football aficionado, they follow the Colonial Athletics. I'm in football. One of the best football conferences in FCS. You know, some really good teams like Towson. A lot of guys make the NFL year. Schools like James Madison, Delaware. But in basketball, it just doesn't get a whole lot of coverage. But we've got the top two teams tonight, North Carolina Wilmington, 12-2 in conference, Towson at 10-3. So North Carolina Wilmington is winning the conference at 12-2, but they're winning some close games. And you look at the numbers, and I've watched them play. They're not real impressive. I don't think there's that much of a difference from the first team to the third or the fourth team here. So I just think that this is a great situational play. They play decent defense, but nothing special here. So just think that we're going to see the Seattle team that last night rolled, you know, looking at offense. I think that this Towson team has some big-time scores here. They also play real good field goal defense. They guard the three-point line here. I'm laying the three. I think that this thing is going to get closer and closer, and they're going to pull within a half game of the lead here. So I like Towson. I'm going to lay the three here. Hidden gem, Towson minus three over North Carolina Wilmington.”
Towson 79, UNC Wilmington 55 — Towson beat UNC Wilmington 79-55, covering -3 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Texas State minus 5.5 versus Arkansas State. How are you seeing this one, ShakeOutly? All right, so my alma mater here where I played ball. Texas State watched a lot of their games. And another conference here where, you know what? There's just no great team here. And when that happens, Texas State, they did win a close game a couple weeks ago against Appalachian State. But late in the games, when they have a lead, their offense in the last three or four minutes is just not good. So they're stagnant. They rely on Caleb Asbury. He's their best player. But you know when last year it seemed like an early in the season he had some games where he scored 20 25 points here He scores you know 6 11 16 12 14 points here I just don like the play calling here I don like the isolation here I think that we're going to see this Arkansas State, who's 6-5 here, coming off maybe their worst performance in the last game, come back and play better. Five-and-a-half points between two teams, I don't see much difference. I think it's too much. When you get in a conference this time of year here, when you're laying more than three, four, five points, you better make sure you have a team that can score. And then also when they get to the free throw line can make free throws. And in that Texas state game that they won a couple of weeks ago, I think they were old for six down the stretch shooting free throws. So they get those alligator arms here. I'm taking, I'm taking the dog here. I like Arkansas state plus the five points here. and just moved up to five and a half. Hidden gem number two, Arkansas State over my alma mater, Texas State.”
Texas State 84, Arkansas State 67 — Texas State beat Arkansas State 84-67; Arkansas State +5.5 fails to cover (ESPN team schedule/box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. We're going to roll over 6 goals, minus 104. Blackhawks versus Blue Jackets. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, the Columbus Blue Jackets are basically playing pond hockey out there right now. They're playing some of the fastest pace back and forth hockey in the entire league right now. You wouldn't know it necessarily without watching them because they don't have the most talent up front. And they have two goalies that have had success in the past, but they are actually hitting the overs. How about this? At the highest rate in the NHL. They're 30, 15 and two on the over so far this season. And I think the trend is going to continue for at least the next two or three weeks. So they're playing against the Blackhawks team right now tonight that hasn't had defensive structure all season. When you don't have structure, you have two teams that play more open, free skating style of game. And you're going to get goals, especially with some subpar goaltending. Keep in mind, too, that both of these teams have some veteran forwards who can score that are going to want to look good tonight with the trade deadline quickly approaching. So it's important in the NDA trade deadline. Players, they don't want to stay around teams that are losing, especially veterans. And it's important in hockey. So all these guys want to be traded to a contender later in their career. And I think they're going to show up tonight and secure that. I see like a minimum 4-3, 5-3, 5-4 game. So let's go with the over six goals, minus 104, level two lock.”
CHI 4, CBJ 7 — Columbus beat Chicago 7-4; combined 11 goals clears the over 6 (ESPN box score).
“Duquesne, betonline.net line for this one. Duquesne, minus three and a half versus George Washington. Let us know about this hidden gem. Okay, so we gave out Davidson the other night. They were laying 12 and a half to 13. They only won by 11. But they were by, I think, 15, 17, 18 points in the first half. And it wasn't like Duquesne was good. I just think that Davidson, I watched the game, was disinterested. Just going through the motions, substituted guys. And sometimes it happens. So I was on the right side, had the wrong result. But now we're going to go back to the well. And the wrong team is favored in this one here. I mean, two games laying points. Are you kidding me? They lost 10 straight. George Washington is a decent program. They're always in the middle of the pack or above that. They are in the middle of the pack again. They lost their last game to Dayton. I mean, they just played terrible. They lost 80 to 54, not representative of what they're all about. and in that game they shot just 38 percent they allowed Dayton to shoot almost 63 percent they're 11 11 and one against the spread here and they're playing a team Duquesne just doesn't have talent they are a bottom feeder consistently this is when teams that are at the bottom they realize They just don't have it. And on top of that, we've got a situation here where they want to get seedings. George Washington liked to move up a little bit here. So they played well on the road, played better competition here. I'm picking the points here. This is my hidden gem here. George Washington plus the points outright over Duquesne tonight.”
George Washington 73, Duquesne 52 — George Washington beat Duquesne 73-52 outright as a 3.5-point underdog (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Warriors minus six versus the Nuggets. Wrong team favorite. Speak on the lead. I don't know if the wrong team is favorite. I think the right team is favored, but this game resembles last night's game. And in the NBA, I had a friend one time, a guy named Larry, and Larry would always tell me this team is due to win. Well, Larry lasted about two, three years betting, and he was done. He had to quit. So last night, you know, we saw in the game that we played, we took the Clippers, and the Clippers were playing Phoenix. The Clippers were playing extremely well. And this is the Denver team. This Denver team is coming together. I know they have some injuries, but look at just recently what they've done here. They've won four of the last five games. They've beaten Brooklyn. They've beaten the Knicks. And we're talking about by 20 and 17 points. They went into Toronto and won. They beat Orlando at home by 20 and blew them out. The only game they lost was to Boston on the road by six points, and they were in the entire game. So I don't think that this Golden State team has anyone that can cover Jokic. And so I just think it's a matchup situation. They're sharing the ball. Last two games all five scores here for Denver were in double digits So hey there is the big three for the Golden State Warriors But you know each of the three it seems like we have a big game every second, every third game here. So, no interior defense here until they get everyone back, the starting center and starting power forward. I think the right side here is Denver. So, just like the Clippers here, we're taking Denver plus the points here on the road here. wrong team favorite Denver Nuggets they're going to take it down to the wire maybe win outright against the Golden State Warriors tonight”
GS 116, DEN 117 — Denver beat Golden State 117-116; Nuggets margin +1 covers +6 (ESPN box score).
“And it's one versus Baylor. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so one of the tried and true really good situational plays, when you have two good teams, is when a, let's say, ranked team or a team, you know, they're sitting at one and two or two and three in the conference. Team loses at home in the first conference game. They go on the road, and in a game where, you know, the line is very, very close, you usually look to the underdog, but not in this situation. Two things have got me on the Texas Tech side. Number one, they're without JTT. And I'm not even going to try to pronounce his name. They call him JTT. This guy comes to play. He's one of the most underrated players. He's 6'7", 6'8". He rebounds. He plays defense. And you don't go into a gunfight without the proper ammo. And if you want to go into Texas Tech and win, it's going to get a little bloody. That crowd, they get pumped for the game. They start tailgating for basketball about six, seven hours beforehand. They got to miss a class or two. They miss a class or two. The students they are super loud and they play defense There some games sometimes you see some 54 finals 56 stuff like that So there a chance this could be a very low game And I don't do this often. But once in a while when the line is close to a pick-em, one or two points, I play money line. I don't want my play decided by one call, one play. Let's say they win the game by one, the line's one and a half. and I don't get the cover. So I'm going to play Texas Tech Moneyline minus one and a half in this play. They've won 17 straight games this year at home. So one of the toughest venues to play at. They play defense. They've got enough offense here. I think this is a great situational play here. Texas Tech money line level two lock over Baylor tonight.”
Texas Tech 83, Baylor 73 — Texas Tech beat Baylor 83-73 outright, winning the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline for this one It Phoenix minus 13 versus the Clippers Thoughts on this one Lee All right so I been riding the Suns this year I believe right now they the best team in the NBA But there's a time to go against them, and there's a time to go against them even at home. And the time is tonight. The L.A. Clippers. And you're saying, wow, okay, their record isn't even that good at all. I mean, they'll probably make the playoffs 29 and 30. But Tyrone Lewis doing a great job. What we're finding out is maybe he was hindered by dealing with LeBron and mates over there. At the Clippers, without his top two stars, he is coaching this team up. Last night they took apart the Golden State Warriors. They're 13th in the league in defense and moving up by the week. Guys like Reggie Jackson, recently acquired Terrence Mann, Marcus Morris, Zubac at center. They just play hard. And I think they're going to be a top six, top seven defense before it's all over. So even though without Paul George for a little while longer, Kawhi Leonard may not come back until the end of the year, maybe even not until the next year. Who knows with him? He's so temperamental. But Phoenix, yeah, everything's great. But the bottom line is this line is too high. When a team's playing well, one of the things that we've talked about, when stars are playing well for a team, don't go against them. Ride them. when a team's playing well and shooting and also playing defense, you've got to keep backing them. I'm going with the L.A. Clippers plus 13 points here. Wrong team favorite. L.A. Clippers, they get the job done. They're going to cover against Phoenix tonight.”
PHX 103, LAC 96 — Phoenix beat LA Clippers 103-96; Clippers margin -7 covers +13 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Longhorns minus one at Oklahoma. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So you know Texas has to be excited to play this game, even though it's on the road, because they've had to face five straight ranked opponents. Yep. And they have another one coming up on Saturday when they play Texas Tech. So they get to face Oklahoma. That's lost four of the last five games, including an absolute heartbreaker at Kansas on Saturday when they played actually really well, led most of the game. But here's the deal with Texas, and you've got to study teams. Here's why I like playing games in February. We see patterns. They've lost seven games, five of them to rank opponents. But after a loss, they've come back in six of the next seven games and won and covered five of those seven. So this is a team that plays really good defense, top ten in the country in defense. And just think that they're going to control the boards here. They're also a good free throw shooting team. So my final analysis here is Oklahoma also one of the worst turnover rates in college basketball. Number 336 out of 357 teams in Texas, they forced the seventh most turnovers of any team in college basketball. We're laying the one here. Blowout special. Hook them. Texas Longhorns. Poker over the Oklahoma Sooners.”
Texas 80, Oklahoma 78 — Texas beat Oklahoma 80-78 in overtime, covering -1 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. We're going to roll Senators versus Blues. Under six, minus 110. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so we get into a pattern, and I do play a lot more overs and unders in hockey. With the rule changes, we see more overs now. But, you know, just when you're starting to feel comfortable, okay, Q, you're going to have to change your thinking on this game. St. Louis has had an up-and-down couple of weeks, offensively and defensively. If you look back at their last seven games, aside from a 7-4 game against New Jersey, they've either scored or held their opponents to one goal or less in six of those seven games. That's an incredible trend going here. Now they're getting an Ottawa team that I'm not convinced can score against top competition. The Senators were shut out in two of their last three games against Boston and Pittsburgh. And with guys like Josh Norris and Colin White injured, I just don't see their forward lines or even their power play putting up much offense here. If you can't trust both offenses on a total to put up their fair share of goals, That over and under number six, I think it's going to be really tough to reach here. I think we're going to see something like a 3-1 at most 3-2 game either way. Under six goals, minus 110, Ottawa Senators and St. Louis Blues, level one lock.”
OTT 2, STL 5 — St. Louis beat Ottawa 5-2; combined 7 goals busts the under 6 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one is Davidson minus 13 versus Duquesne. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Davidson is the class of the A-10 and 10-2 record in conference 24 overall, but lost her last game. playing at home against the Dukes here of Duquesne, 6-16, 1-9 in the A-10. So you've got to think Davidson, after losing that last game, is going to be hopping mad. And they're really tough at home. So I expect them to come out for this one. The Dukes of Duquesne, they've got some problems here. They're inexperienced. I think there's 357 teams in college basketball, Division I. They're 353 as far as experience. So it's ahead of them if they do have success. They also come in here, they don't shoot real well, 239th in offense. Effective field goal percentage, 322. So not facing a great Davidson defense, which is in the low 200s, but they've got three guys that score on average 15, 16, and 17 points here. Davidson has only covered the spread here once in the last seven games, but I think that they going to be ready to go here This is where they do their best work And they might be on that cold streak but I expect them to come back with that veteran team here ready to go So Davidson, just all that firepower here. I lay the 13. I am winning this game by 20 to 25 points. So we're going to call this here. We're going to go with a blowout special. Davidson over Duquesne tonight, 7 o'clock Eastern.”
72-61 — Davidson beat Duquesne 72-61 (margin 11), short of the -13 cover (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Maple Leafs, minus one and a half goals, plus 105 versus the Kraken. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so this is a matchup nightmare here for Seattle. When you look at how teams match up against each other, you try to find weaknesses and strengths. Everything matches up right for Toronto, though. Obviously, the Leafs here, just the most talented group, I think, of pure shooters in the NHL. Matthews, Marner, DeVaris, and the rest of them. I just think that they can pick their spots, especially on the power play. And they're getting the chance tonight to face off against the goaltending group here in Seattle. They just can't stop a beach ball this season, even at home. Seattle has the worst save percentage among teams, all of them in the NHL at home special teams that's where you see an underdog gain an edge but especially for a team like seattle that doesn't score much at even strength the problem here is toronto ranks fifth in the nhl in penance penalty kill percentage and it's been getting better and better as the season rolls on i just don't see where the kraken can gain any kind of advantage here to make up for the weaknesses here on the back end don't overthink this one this is going to be a blowout 4-1 final score at least here. So we're going to go with the Toronto Maple Leafs minus the one-and-a-half goals plus 105 blowout special.”
6-2 — The Maple Leafs beat the Kraken 6-2 (margin 4), covering -1.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Bulls minus 5.5 versus Spurs. Break this one down for us, Lee. So I enjoy watching the Bulls. The Bulls are a fun team to watch. They added, made some nice acquisitions in the offseason. I think they're a top four, top five team in the East. and they're getting it going again. All of a sudden, you know, they went through losing three out of four. They won the last three games. DeMar DeRozan, wow. I mean, last eight games, all above 28 points. I think six of the eight above like 34, 35 points. I mean, he is rolling right now, but he's got to do it all on his own because Zach Levine is injured. He's got a knee injury and could be out for some time. They're deciding what to do with him. So, what they've had to do is the Stars have had to be great. Like, DeMar DeRozan last game, 38 points. I mean, went to the free throw line, made almost free throws, 14 for 16. He's hot everywhere. But Vukovic scored 31. They put in Kobe White into the starting lineup. He came through, 16 points. They've got to have everyone play at a high level. And San Antonio, not great, but all of a sudden, they won their last two games. So this is a team here in San Antonio that's got three really good guys here in Murray, and also Kelton Johnson. They all finished with 20-plus points in the last game. They shot above 43% from three-point land. I think they might have a chance here to win the third straight game on the road here. So I just don't see DeRozan and every one of those key guys playing so well without Zach Levine. So we're going to go here. We're going to take a shot here. Wrong team favorite, San Antonio Spurs, plus 5.5. We're going to play them with the 5.5 points, and Sprinklin probably has to wager on the Spurs' money line.”
120-109 — The Bulls beat the Spurs 120-109 (margin 11), so San Antonio failed to cover +5.5 (ESPN).
“Longest field goal made over 47 yards. Both of these kickers have the capability to kick 60-yard field goals, so the conditions, as we know, in L.A. will be perfect. It seems like it never rains and both these kickers are almost perfect in the plow In fact McPherson made every single field goal So you don have to worry about missed field goals It seems like anything above you know like 48 yards up to about 58 yards is just a little more than an extra point. So we'll go the longest field goal made over 47 yards.”
The longest field goal made in Super Bowl LVI was Matt Gay's 41-yarder, under the 47-yard line (ESPN box score). (Long FG 41 yds)
“Longest touchdown, over 42.5 yards. A lot of people think, you know, they'll take the under here. They'll think that maybe a 20, 30 yard will be the longest. But in the Super Bowl, it seems like one team will hit on a big play. Also, we could have a pick six, and that could be over 42.5 yards. So we'll go over 42.5 yards for the longest touchdown.”
Tee Higgins' 75-yard touchdown reception was the longest scoring play of Super Bowl LVI, clearing 42.5 (ESPN box score). (Longest TD 75 yds (Higgins))
“Joe Burrow over under interceptions. We'll go over a half here, plus 120. If they're trailing in the game, more chances he throws an interception.”
Joe Burrow threw 0 interceptions in Super Bowl LVI (ESPN box score). (Burrow 0 INT)
“The Rams tight end, Kendall Blanton. He's going to be playing. He's going to be starting now. The Rams' losses are starting tight end. Over under 18.5 receiving yards. He had five receptions in the championship game. We'll go over there.”
Kendall Blanton left Super Bowl LVI with a shoulder injury in the first half before recording any statistics, finishing with 0 receiving yards, under the 18.5-yard line (ESPN box score; Wikipedia). (Blanton 0 receptions, 0 rec yds)
“Also, Joe Burrow over 76.5 passing yards. Minus 110.”
Joe Burrow passed for 263 yards in Super Bowl LVI, clearing 76.5 (ESPN box score). (Burrow 263 passing yds)
“Joe Mixon, will he score a touchdown any time in the game? I say he will. Plus 110 there.”
Joe Mixon had no rushing or receiving touchdown of his own in Super Bowl LVI; his only touchdown involvement was throwing a 6-yard trick-play TD pass to Tee Higgins, which is not an anytime touchdown for Mixon (ESPN box score).
“And how about this one? under 13.5 players with a reception in the game, minus 140. So, I mean, each team with having seven guys catch a ball, that's probably a lot here. Most teams are a little more conservative in the Super Bowl. We'll go under 13.5 players with a reception in the Super Bowl.”
Fourteen different players (7 Rams, 7 Bengals) recorded a reception in Super Bowl LVI, exceeding the Under 13.5 line (ESPN box score). (14 players with a reception)
“And the betonline.net line for this one, I do believe, is, what, Rams minus 4? and then the total is minus 48.5 or total is 48.5 points. What's your thoughts? Okay, so I think we're going to see a little different game than most people would expect. I think that we're going to see the Rams come out and run the football. I don't think they want to take a chance like they did in the first game the championship game where they came out throwing the ball first possession the first three downs So if they run the football and they have success which I think they will it's also going to open up the game to throw the football to Cooper Cup, who I think is unguardable right now. I think there's about five or six receivers in the NFL that with one player, they can't be guarded. And even OBJ, who looked terrible. I mean, when he came over and he was acquired, I thought it was a bad acquisition. He was cutting short routes. Looked like he might have even been running some of the wrong routes and giving up on plays. And I just think that right now, the last three games, he has been in tune with Stafford. And they look like they've been playing together for 10 years. So both of those two guys might right now be the best combo receivers in the NFL together. They have the best defensive line, rated number one, the average getting the quarterback in 2.8 seconds, which is a lot quicker than most lines get to the quarterback. And Cincinnati has the second worst offensive line in the NFL if you're grading their offensive line in an entirety. So do I think Cincinnati has the best quarterback? Yes, I think they have the best kicker. But after that, I really don't see any advantage. In fact, the Rams, by playing in the Super Bowl a couple years ago, I think it really helps their coaching staff out. So I think they'll be more relaxed. They'll know how to prepare for this game here. I think the Rams are going to play with the lead here and run the ball and then have success with play action. And Aaron Donald's going to be chasing Joe Burrow all game long. Even Ramsey guarding Jamar Chase is going to be something that should derail and slow down the Cincinnati offense. So I like the Rams. We've had six straight underdogs win in the NFL in the playoffs the last six games. I like the Rams here. I'm going to lay the four points. I think they can win this game here, 31-20.”
23-20 — The Rams won Super Bowl LVI 23-20, a 3-point margin that falls short of the -4 spread (ESPN box score).
“The Suns, the betonline.net line for this one. Phoenix Suns minus 3.5 versus Milwaukee. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, and the Suns are coming in off beating the 76ers. 114-109. The reason I picked this game also is I don't think we're going to see any trades or anything major with these two teams. So I don't think either team is going to lose any players here before the game, like we could see on many teams with the trade deadline going on later today. But the Bucs are getting the job done lately on the defensive end. They still rank 15th, but they've really moved up over the last couple weeks. They've just totally clamped down on some of these teams' top scorers here. Suns are doing really well also. But right now they are shooting threes, Milwaukee, and there are so many weapons. You first got to stop the Greek freak, and then after that, I mean, they just load up with guys around him. So this is just a great situational play here for Milwaukee. I think that they've been waiting for this game here and want to prove themselves again on the big stage. So what we're going to do is we're going to take the three-and-a-half points here with a team that's shooting the three ball maybe better than anyone in the NBA, hitting over 36.4% of theirs, and they take a lot of them. Now Phoenix is right behind them, hitting 36.1% of their threes, but they just don't shoot enough of them. So we think that Milwaukee's three-point shooting is different here. Pick the Bucs, plus three and a half points here tonight over Phoenix again Wrong team favored Milwaukee Bucs Boom there it is right there getting us started with a little NBA action the Suns and Milwaukee And you know it funny and I didn mention at the top of the show”
131-107 — The Suns beat the Bucks 131-107 (margin 24), well beyond Milwaukee's +3.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Purdue minus three at Michigan. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so Michigan has been one of the most overrated teams. right now in the country, in my opinion. They just have not come together. Guys are not improving. I made this line like five and a half. So we're going to take advantage of what I feel is a favorable line here. Also, you've got a team here in the Boilermakers, best offensive team in college basketball, according to Ken Palm's rankings, and second-best shooting percentage. Their three-point shooting has been absolutely on fire. They're knocking down over 41% of their attempts, and they face a Michigan defense number 111 in adjusted efficiency here. So Jaden Ivey leads Purdue with almost 18 points per game, over five rebounds, over three assists here. Zach Eady scoring almost 15 points per game, getting over seven and a half rebounds. The other forward slash center Trevion Williams scoring over 12 points. He pulls down over eight boards a game here. And the only problem those two guys have is they get in foul trouble once in a while. But just a different level of talent here. Purdue big time here. Blowout special. Purdue Boilermakers over the Michigan Wolverines tonight.”
82-58 — Michigan beat Purdue 82-58, so Purdue failed to cover -3 (ESPN).
“The betonline.net line for this one is James Madison minus 6.5 versus Elon. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? So the Fighting Phoenix of Elon coming to this game ranked 218th all the way down there in adjusted offensive efficiency ratings here and rank 285th in turnovers and 302nd in offensive rebound here. They going to face the James Madison team where their defense has been much improved over the last couple weeks here And they playing at home And James Madison, that's where they do their best work. And the Fighting Phoenix of Elon have lost all ten games on the road, ten straight. So I think this line is low here. We're going to lay it here. and my hidden gem, James Madison Dukes here, minus 6.5 over the Fighting Phoenix of Elon.”
70-66 — Elon beat James Madison 70-66, so James Madison failed to cover -6.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Bobby King Green, Moneyline minus 140. And then the take back the other way is plus 120. Lee, how are you feeling this one? Okay, so actually the early prelim started 6 Eastern. So people have to remember that. Sometimes I get people want to sign up. They'll call me like 8, 830, and like I'm ready to go. I'm like, well, you already missed a couple fights. Right. But so the early prelims start at 6, the prelims at 8, and the main card, the pay-per-view, starts at 10 Eastern. This is the first bout of the main card, and it's a matchup between two guys that are starting to move up here. You have a UFC veteran in green, been in the UFC since 2013 against a young prospect and who is so far pretty much failed to live up to expectations. Green has had mixed results in his last couple of fights He one and two He lost a close decision to Rafael Fizzias and he was dominating the third round and then also lost the decision to Diego Moises in a bout where I thought he decisively outstruck his opponent. Green also KO'd USC veteran Al Iaquita, and that was about three months ago. On the other hand, Heslack has struggled every time he takes a step up in competition, including he was dominated by Dan Hooker in the last outing. He does well against lower-rated to medium-rated fighters, so I just think that he's going to put up a good fight, but Green will ultimately be the one that prevails here. I think he's going to outstrike him here and probably score a unanimous decision, so I expect Bobby King Green to remain royalty when this one is here all over. Lay the 140 here, Bobby King Green. Boom. There it is”
Bobby (King) Green defeated Nasrat Haqparast by unanimous decision at UFC 271 (ufc.com).
“First offensive play, I think is going to be a run. Minus 140. The Rams came out throwing in their last game. They went three and out. And they don't want to do that again. Cincinnati, I think, wants to establish the run. They don't want to have Joe Burrow sitting back there and getting sacked nine times like he did in the first playoff game. So first offensive play will be a run, minus 140.”
Cam Akers ran for 4 yards on the Rams' first offensive play of Super Bowl LVI, confirming a run play (ESPN play-by-play).
“And Cincinnati's Trey Hendrickson, over a half sack. He is by far their best pass rusher. 14 sacks during the regular season, two and a half in the playoffs. Cincinnati's Trey Hendrickson here, over a half a sack, minus 120.”
Trey Hendrickson recorded 1 sack in Super Bowl LVI (ESPN box score). (Hendrickson 1 sack)
“BetOnline.net line for this one is Detroit Titans minus 2.5 versus Robert Morris. Break this hidden gem down, and let me know how you found this one. Okay, so I was watching Detroit one night, and I'm always flipping around, looking at teams. If you see something, you can use it later on in the year. And I'm watching this Detroit team, and about a week ago, I'm like, pretty good team here. I'm pretty impressed. And they had a player, a kid, that really impressed me, Antoine Davis. He the leading scorer in the nation Antoine Davis if you ever get a chance to watch him he number zero And both teams not great record Detroit 9 Robert Morris horrible 6 But Detroit is 6-4 in the horizon. We have not done the horizon game so far this year. But Robert Morris, 4-10. Now, let's get into the matchup and make one of the reasons makes it an absolute hidden gem here. So Robert Morris has yet to beat a team even close to as highly as ranked as Detroit is in Ken Palm rankings. They have played no one, whereas Detroit played a really tough schedule to start the year. So sometimes, in fact, their schedule 58th in the country non-conference. So they decided to do that because it pays dividends later on the season. Robert Morris How about this? They rank 318th in defensive efficiency here. The Titans, offensive numbers, they're top 50 nationally in three-point shooting. 15th highest rated here as far as free throw. So if it's a close game, they're going to make their free throws and can turn a three-, four-point lead into a seven-, eight-point lead. So I just think it's a great situational play. You got the leading scorer here against a bad defense here. Can't defend the three-point line here. We're going to delay the small spot here. Hidden gem Detroit Mercy Tigers. Titans here over Robert Morris.”
79-62 — Detroit Mercy beat Robert Morris 79-62, covering -2.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one is Cleveland minus 5.5 versus Spurs. What are your thoughts on this one? All right, Cleveland made a really nice move, and they get Levert. and this kid LaVert is, I think, one of the most underrated players here. Comes over from Indiana. Cleveland, only a game and a half back. That's it, a game and a half back in the East here. Now, do I think they're going to win the East? No. But I think they can end up in the top four, and that's what they're fighting for. This San Antonio team, a couple years ago they were in, like, transition. They would make the playoffs and get knocked out first round. This year, they're dead, dead in the water, just like last year. I think they're going for a draft pick here. So they came back. In fact, did the Cavs in the last game. I think they had like a 19-0-1 in that game. So you can't say you've seen that kind of thing in a long, long time out of this Cleveland team. But they believe, and Darius Garland could be back for this game. They're all-star, and with LaVert. This is a team that's got a bench also. So I'm going to lay the small spot here, five and a half. I think they win this game by double digits. blowout special, Cleveland Cavaliers over the hapless San Antonio Spurs.”
105-92 — The Cavaliers beat the Spurs 105-92 (margin 13), covering -5.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net, live for this one. The Islanders' money line, minus 115 versus Vancouver. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so I'm buying low on the New York Islanders. If you'll remember, first half of their season, they started the NHL season on a record 13-game road trip due to the construction of their new arena. Then they were the first team that was hit hard. I mean, they were devastated by COVID. Well, the problem for them was the NHL really didn't have a handle on COVID, the issues and how they were going to deal with it. So they were playing shorthanded for a couple weeks here before it was finally shut down. And you can see what type of team this is after the shutdown. Since early in December, they're 11-7-1. And they're giving up just 2.3 goals per game in that span. So let's look at the big picture of things. they have a chance coming out of the All break where they had won 8 out of 12 to really finish strong here They had a good matchup with Seattle on the home ice before a few days off And what did they do? They lost 3-0. So now they come out of this break here. And what's interesting about the Islanders here and their playoff push, they only have 39 games that they've played, which is way less than anyone else in the NHL. In fact, every other team in the league has played at least 42 games, so don't count them out. They're going to be rested. They should have a good advantage over the Canucks team that is on the back end of back-to-back games tonight here. I'm going with the New York Islanders. Everyone's looking at this line thinking, how can the Islanders with a worse record be favored on the road? Well, I'm going with the New York Islanders here. Money line, minus 115.”
6-3 — The Islanders beat the Canucks 6-3 (ESPN).
“You go under five and a half rushing yards for Matthew Stafford, Super Bowl. Not a runner here. I think they're going to run the football. And let's say they have the lead, not going to have to run much. It's not like he's much of a scrambler here. So they put a low number out. You're thinking, oh, all he's got to do is run one time for seven, eight yards. I don't see it happening.”
Matthew Stafford rushed for 6 yards on 3 carries in Super Bowl LVI, which is over the 5.5-yard line, so the Under does not cash (ESPN box score). (Stafford 6 rush yds (3 att))
“and I'm looking at who's going to have the longest field goal. And I think it's going to be Evan McPherson here for Cincinnati. He's not missed a field goal in the playoffs. I think he's got the longer leg. I'm looking at Gay. He's not as accurate, so he can miss field goals here. And just doesn't seem to have that extra oomph in his leg. Maybe late in the season, You see guys that, you know, just not the same as they were earlier midseason. So I'm going even though he's not at home. I'm going with Cincinnati's Evan McPherson here, minus 120, longest field goal in the Super Bowl.”
Matt Gay's 41-yard field goal was the longest of Super Bowl LVI, longer than Evan McPherson's 38-yard long (ESPN box score). (Gay long 41 yds, McPherson long 38 yds)
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Milwaukee minus four. Thoughts on this one. So you have a really hot Milwaukee Bucs team right now. I mean, they are scorching. In their last two games, you talk about offense. They have been dealing. They scored 137 against Portland. Beat them 137-108. then match that total again on Sunday night winning 137 to 113 Clippers The Lakers under I don think anyone saw that But they hit rock bottom, in my opinion. Now they're coming back up. They won an overtime at home against the Knicks. LeBron's back. AD is back. And sometimes it's about matchups. And they got some guys like LeBron and AD. they're going to, I think, present some problems here for the Greek Freaks. So sometimes it's about matchups. Sometimes it's about a team hitting rock bottom. Also, I like the fact that the Lakers coach Vogel imposing his will. Hey, I'm sure Westbrook gave him some blowback because it's the second time, and he doesn't want to sit on the bench late in games, but he was benched for overtime. So give me the Lakers here. Plus the points, wrong team favored. I'm going to play him plus the points. And on the money line here, sprinkle some action there against the world champion Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday night.”
131-116 — The Bucks beat the Lakers 131-116 (margin 15), well beyond the Lakers' +4 (ESPN).
“His betonline.net line for this one. The Hurricanes minus one and a half goals plus 105. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, two games were played last night in the NHL's return from the All-Star break. Carolina and Ottawa played in both of them. So these teams are jumping right back into things on a back-to-back, which is going to be very common the rest of the way due to COVID cancellations for a bunch of teams. These two teams played each other January 22nd here. No, not 22nd, 27th. Sorry about that. And that was just 10 days ago here. So Carolina won that one 3-2 in a shootout. But the final score didn't tell the whole story. Yes, Ottawa outshot Carolina 39-29 in that game. But if you look back and watch the tape on that game, every single Carolina chance was high danger. It was just a game that sometimes the result went the wrong way here. The Hurricanes are 7-2 in their last nine games on back-to-backs, and you don't want to hold up the top spot, and you don't do it in the Metropolitan Division like that all year if you don't have the depth and goaltending to back it up. Carolina runs away with this one, 4-1 or 5-1 here over Ottawa. Carolina Hurricanes minus one and a half goals plus 105 blowout”
4-3 — The Senators beat the Hurricanes 4-3, so Carolina failed to cover -1.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Auburn minus two versus Arkansas. Thoughts on this one, Lee. Break it down for us. Okay, so I had one of our podcast listeners, Sean, he DM'd me, and he's like, I hope you guys can break down and predict the Arkansas win over Auburn on Tuesday. And I said, you know what? It's one of the games I'm looking at. So we're going to hit on it. And he also said, how is Arkansas not ranked? They're 18-5. Well, there's a lot of really good teams that are 10-25 and even that aren't ranked from probably in 25-35 receiving votes. And Arkansas is one of those teams. And they have won eight straight games. But I'm watching this team. I know they're playing at home. But before those eight straight wins, and the only semi-convincing win against a decent opponent was at LSU. That's it. Before that, they lost to start-off conference play to Vanderbilt. They lost to Texas A&M. They lost to Mississippi State. They also lost at a conference to Oklahoma and Hofstra. So, I think Arkansas is good, but they do not have a quality win this year. I think Auburn by winning that game, their last game on Saturday against Georgia, coming back from behind on the road, shows me what this team is all about. I think they have the best player. and not to end this game. And I think that they're going to be motivated because Arkansas, 36-20 all-time series, that's where it stands, and they were swept in both meetings last year. I think the motivation's there for Auburn. They have the better talent, and I just think better coach, better intangibles, better defense here, and also more scoring, more balanced scoring. I'm going with Auburn here. this is going to be a level two lock Auburn over Arkansas in a huge SEC contest.”
80-76 — Arkansas beat Auburn 80-76 in overtime, so Auburn failed to cover -2 (ESPN).
“So we're going to go with Joe Burrow, over 10.5 rushing yards. I think he's going to be running for his life. I can only remember in high school there was a couple guys that went on to college, and if I knew they were there and I knew they were fast and big, I made sure once I got out of the pocket I didn't hang around too long. So as the playoffs have rolled on also, he's done what he's had to do to get first downs, and that's been running. So I expect him to probably be in the 20 to 30-yard range as far as rushing.”
Joe Burrow rushed for 3 yards on 2 carries in Super Bowl LVI, under the 10.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Burrow 3 rush yds (2 att))
“And then time of possession. I think the Rams are going to possess the ball more. I think that they're going to run the ball more than normal. As we mentioned on the show yesterday, we talked about how the Rams have limited teams. No one's approached 100 yards rushing against them, so that means that Cincinnati's going to have to throw the ball. When you throw the ball, usually less time possessing the ball. Every time there's an incompletion, the clock stops. So we're going to go with the Rams, minus 120 to 125 here in that range to have more time of possession than the Cincinnati Bengals.”
The Rams held the ball for 30:47 to the Bengals' 29:13 in Super Bowl LVI (ESPN box score). (Rams 30:47, Bengals 29:13 time of possession)
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Arizona minus 13 versus Arizona State. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay. One of the ways that you can become a better better is to not fall in love with the team. And I loved Arizona and gave them out one week last week against UCLA at home and did the job for us. I'm going to go against them here. So, not that they're not a much better team than Arizona State, but situational play here. So, they already beat them a week ago. And beat them by double digits, but didn't cover. They were laying, I think it was like 20 points. And a couple things have changed since that time. Arizona State knocked off UCLA. So, they were behind a couple times in the game. I like their perseverance. They kept fighting back. And also, the game is at home. and it is a tough, tough place to play, is Arizona State's home court. I mean, the student section is absolutely alive, and it does make a difference. You have to understand which home courts are valuable, and this is one of them. And I think they're going to be out of their mind here. They actually, this Arizona team plays defense here. So holding opponents here to just 40% shooting, the problem is they're shooting just 39%. They also get out-rebounded, and that's Arizona's strength. But that's all about hustle. That's effort. And they going to be alive And this is one of the biggest rivalries that people don follow because most people live on the East Coast And you hear about UConn and Villanova and North Carolina and Duke But this is a heated rivalry. I'm taking the points here in Arizona State here. Wrong team favorite. Arizona State gets the cover against Arizona.”
91-79 — Arizona beat Arizona State 91-79 (margin 12), so Arizona State covered the +13 spread (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Phoenix minus seven and a half as they travel to Chi-Town. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, and you look at the line and you're like, okay, Phoenix, number one in the West. Chicago, number two in the East, just a half game behind the Miami Heat. So Chicago's at home. This line should be Phoenix, maybe two, three, four points. Why is it so high? It's because the Chicago Bulls will probably be without Zach LaValle. They'll probably be here also without Kobe White. And Lonzo Ball's been out for a while now also. So DeMar DeRozan was incredible the other night. 45 points. He had that Superman, that big S on his shirt, and he played out of his mind. Vukovic is right there also. I just don't think it's enough. Phoenix is the number one road team in the NBA, and it's there for a reason here. I just think they have too much firepower here, and don't fall for the trap. We talk about a trap line. You're thinking, hey, Chicago at home, getting almost double-digit points. I'll take it here. I think they get run out of the gym here. I just think that Paul's just going to have his way and distribute the ball to all his scores, and they play great defense here. People forget about that top three defense in the NBA We have the Phoenix Suns here. We're going to go here with a blowout special. Phoenix Suns over Chicago Bulls.”
127-124 — The Suns beat the Bulls 127-124 (margin +3), short of Phoenix's -7.5 cover (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Kansas minus one versus the Longhorns. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? So Texas needs that signature win. And when they've stepped up against top teams like Gonzaga, they lost by 12 early in the season. They have also lost, surprisingly, to Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Kansas State. And then they had their biggest test over the last couple weeks against Texas Tech and failed miserably there. But they did regroup and beat Iowa State at home 63-41. But for some reason, playing at home has not been as big an advantage at Texas as some of these other schools. So Kansas was floundering. They got beat down by Kentucky a little over a week ago, and I think it turned their season around. They look absolutely dominant against Baylor. So even though Texas is the number one defensive team in the country, we don't have to win by like five or seven points. You're laying one point here in Kansas. All they've got to do is win maybe elite scores here. I just think they were cut above Texas here, only laying one point here. We're going to go with a level one lock to start the week, Kansas Jayhawks over the Texas Longhorns.”
79-76 — Texas beat Kansas 79-76, so Kansas failed to cover -1 (ESPN).
“First one is how many Bengals will attempt to rush. The over under is three and a half. And what most people will think is, well, okay, you got Joe Mixon, you got Burrow and, you know, maybe someone else, maybe a receiver carrying the ball. But they don't realize that Jamar Chase has carried the ball every single time during the playoffs. Sometimes multiple times. Sometimes one of the games three times. All they need is one other. They have a couple other backs the first game. They had six guys carry the ball. The other two times, four times. They can even have, remember this, you can have a fake punt. You can have a fake field goal and the guy run with it. And that counts as a rushing attempt here. So I think at least one of the other running backs will carry the ball. I mean, all you've got to do is have a third down, and Mixon goes out most third downs for a third down back, and that guy carries the ball. Burrow's going to carry. Mixon's going to carry. Jamar Chase is going to probably carry. Maybe even someone else. I'm going over three and a half players here will attempt to rush for the Cincinnati Bengals minus 130. That's my first Super Bowl prop.”
Four different Bengals players had a rushing attempt in Super Bowl LVI — Mixon (15), Burrow (2), Perine (2), and Chase (1) — clearing Over 3.5 (ESPN box score). (4 Bengals rushers: Mixon, Burrow, Perine, Chase)
“The other one is who will have more passing attempts? Will it be Stafford or Burrow? So I'm looking at this, and I'm thinking, Wow, at first, you know, I'm thinking maybe Stafford's the guy. You know, they throw the ball. I think what their game plan is going to be to run the football They want to keep Stafford at harm way at least through the first part of the game The only game that they were trailing in the playoffs was the last one against San Francisco when three of the first five drives went for an interception missed field goal and then a fourth and one they went for it. It didn't succeed. So I think they're going to have some success against Cincinnati running the football. Also, after the first game of the playoffs, Joe Burrow attempted 37 passes to Ryan Tannehill's 24. Even in the game against Kansas City, Kansas City has almost no rushing attack. Mahomes has only one more, 39 to 38. If Cincinnati's playing from behind, they're going to throw the ball early and often here. And on the other side, let's look at the defense. Let's look at this L.A. Rams defense. All three games, they held Arizona, 61 rushing yards. They held Tampa Bay 51 rushing yards. So they made Murray throw the ball, Conrad 34 times, Conrad 54 times, and held San Francisco to 50 rushing yards. Stafford threw the ball more. Obviously they were trailing in the game the only time. So as long as the game's closer, the Rams are winning the game here. I think you're going to have Joe Burrow attempting more pass attempts, minus 105.”
Matthew Stafford attempted 40 passes to Joe Burrow's 33 in Super Bowl LVI, so Burrow did not have more attempts (ESPN box score). (Burrow 33 att, Stafford 40 att)
“BetOnline.net line for this game. The Hornets, minus five versus the Cavaliers. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, two teams, if it ended right now, would be in the playoffs. I think some people thought that, you know, Charlotte would probably be there somewhere between the seventh and eighth, seventh and ninth slot. That was a prediction I saw before the season. But Cleveland, sitting in the fifth poll, they're only a couple games out of first place, believe it or not. They are resilient. That's what they are. They did lose their last game, but they have not lost back-to-back games since November 24th. So this is a team that plays defense. I think they might be the youngest team in the NBA here. So I like the way they play hard. They share the ball here. What has Charlotte done? I mean, they've lost four of the last six games here. So I just see a team here in Cleveland ranked number four right now in the NBA with an adjusted plus 4.2 net rating. They have an all-star, Skid Garland. Not many people know about him. So under the radar that most people couldn't even tell you that he went to college at Vanderbilt but made the all-star team and deservedly so. So I'm going to take Cleveland here. I think the line's way too high. Plus five points. Wrong team favorite. Cleveland plus five. I'm going to put half my money on them. Plus five and half. I'm going to sprinkle on the money line here. Definitely wrong team favorite in this game.”
101-102 — Cleveland Cavaliers beat Charlotte Hornets 102-101 on late free throws; Cleveland's 1-point margin covers the +5.5 (ESPN).
“But the betonline.net line for this one is Soriano minus 180 versus Maximoff. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, and first thing I thought, well, maybe he's like from Dagestan with a name like that. Or, you know, some tough region. He's actually from California. So that's why he has no nickname. But Puna we actually have taken before. Yeah. He's a 29-year-old experienced guy taking on a 24-year-old Californian here. Two Americans with wrestling backgrounds. Puna comes in with an 8-1 record, but has faced much better competition than his opponent with three wins over current UFC fighters. Well, he's actually never been taken down in his UFC career. Maximoff is undefeated, but he relies exclusively on wrestling as his striking of choice here. His hands are, at best average, I would say more subpar here. He landed only a total of 14 significant strikes over three rounds in his only UFC win. He's yet to defeat a fighter with a UFC win as his first five fighters he's faced have a combined record, get this of 2 and 14. I think it's a bad matchup for the young Maximoff here and his striking will get exposed. He's going to be relentless in going for the takedown, but I just think he going to get stuffed and Puna is just vastly superior Striking will dominate this match and could get ugly real soon So I'm going with the Hawaiian over the Californian here. And blowout special, Puna Soriano minus 180 over the Californian, Nick Maximoff.”
Nick Maximov defeated Punahele Soriano by split decision at UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland (Feb 5, 2022); the Soriano moneyline pick lost (Wikipedia).
“So the betonline.net line for this one. Cooper Cup over-under. Receiving yards 106 coming up for Super Bowl 56. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so just going to give people just a little bit of a nibble here as to what I'm going to have next week. I'm going to release, I could have two or three a day next week. So I started diving into them this week, and this is one of the plays that I already played. And the public is going to be on the over, 106.5 total receiving yards. Why do I say that? Cooper Cup in the conference championship game, 11 for 142 and two touchdowns. So what have you done for me lately? He's been absolutely on fire. Before that, against Tampa Bay, even better, 9 for 183 in the touchdowns. You're saying, why is it only 106 and a half? Well, here's what we normally see. With two weeks off and to prepare for a Super Bowl, Cincinnati is going to try to take away the Rams' greatest weapon. And if they're able to do that, they feel that they have a chance to win. On top of that, also, the Rams will be missing, it looks like, Tyler Higbee. They're tied in. So I think it makes it a little bit easier. He opened the field. He was really good running in the seams. Sigby was for their offense. So the backup tight end, a little more limited, a guy that runs much shorter routes. So Eve's something that really impressed me with Cincinnati. I'm not saying I'm taking Cincinnati. Haven't decided on my Super Bowl selection yet. But I did notice something the average person didn't notice this. First half when they were playing Mahomes, they were rushing four guys. Yep. And they were getting blitzed. Kansas City scored touchdowns on the first three drives. And on the fourth one, I got to the one yard line, not for a bad goal, might been up 28 to 10 So what did they do in the second half Predominantly rushed only three players And Mahomes just was absolutely confused couldn get anything done So I think that them making, you know, changes on the fly and being able to adapt, I think is important here. And like I said, their number one goal is takeaway cup. If they get beat, they're going to get beat by someone like Jefferson, throwing to a backup tight end, running back out of the backfield, they're not going to let Cup catch 150, 200 yards of passes. So I'm going to go under, believe it or not, under 106.5 total receiving yards for Cooper Cup.”
Cooper Kupp caught 8 passes for 92 receiving yards in Super Bowl LVI, staying under the 106.5 line (Wikipedia, Super Bowl LVI box stats). (Cooper Kupp 92 receiving yards)
“BetOnline.net line for this one is Texas State minus 3.5 versus App State. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so very few people follow the Sun Belt. Right. Play some pretty decent basketball this year. There's a couple teams at the bottom, the Georgia State, the Arkansas Little Rock, Louisiana Monroe, they're good. But after that, so you have the team sitting in fifth place in the conference, Texas State 4-3 in conference and 13-6. They're playing the leader. Appalachian State 14-9 but 8-2. Appalachian State's been hot of late. They've actually won now a total of six games in a row. But I don't think there's much difference here between the first and the fifth place team. I think most of these teams at home are going to win games here. So senior Adrian Delph has been playing at a high level for Appalachian State here. But I think this is going to be a game where home court advantage means something here. So they had to travel from Boone. It's not like you get on a plane at Boone and travel to San Marcos, Texas. So they almost for sure had to bus. They had to fly to Atlanta, flew probably from Atlanta to Austin, and then had to take another bus and go to San Marcos, Texas. San Marcos has a weird gym. It sits on a weird angle. I've seen some games here where teams go and they have some real problems. And I think this team for Texas State is really good. They were scoring like crazy early in the year. They have a super stud senior guard named Caleb Asbury. Caleb Asbury averaging almost 14 points a game, but only playing 28 minutes a game. Seems like their head coach plays him more when they need him to win. And I think this is a must game here. This kid can do everything for a guard. He can rebound, shares the ball, doesn't turn the ball over much. So I think he's going to have a big game here, and the defense will clamp down on App State. I'm going to lay the three-and-a-half points here. I think Texas State gets the job done.”
68-66 — Texas State beat Appalachian State 68-66, a 2-point margin that falls short of the -3.5 cover (ESPN).
“Give us the betonline.net line for these. So what we're doing is we're looking for value here. And when you're looking for value, what you're trying to do is you're trying to find, you know, a situation where the line is off and you can take advantage of it. And I think that I found a couple situations. Let's start off with two big-time long shots. And the long shots are Alabama and Tennessee. Both these two teams at one time were in the top 10, top 15. They play in the toughest conference, the SEC. All these teams beat up on each other on a nightly and weekly basis. And I think that these two teams, if they get on a roll, can make to the final four. If you make to the final four either one of these two teams, you're sitting with a 55-to-1 ticket. You're sitting pretty. So my two long shots are going to be Alabama and Tennessee, both at 55-1, and then Kansas.”
64-78 — Notre Dame upset Alabama 78-64 in the first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, eliminating Alabama before the Final Four (Wikipedia, 2022 NCAA tournament results).
“Give us the betonline.net line for these. So what we're doing is we're looking for value here. And when you're looking for value, what you're trying to do is you're trying to find, you know, a situation where the line is off and you can take advantage of it. And I think that I found a couple situations. Let's start off with two big-time long shots. And the long shots are Alabama and Tennessee. Both these two teams at one time were in the top 10, top 15. They play in the toughest conference, the SEC. All these teams beat up on each other on a nightly and weekly basis. And I think that these two teams, if they get on a roll, can make to the final four. If you make to the final four either one of these two teams, you're sitting with a 55-to-1 ticket. You're sitting pretty. So my two long shots are going to be Alabama and Tennessee, both at 55-1, and then Kansas.”
68-76 — Michigan upset Tennessee 76-68 in the second round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, eliminating Tennessee before the Final Four (Wikipedia, 2022 NCAA tournament results).
“I think Kansas right now, sitting at 18-1, is a great value. I think they're one of the top two or three most talented teams. A couple of their players have been injured of late, but they're going to be back. They're going to be ready to roll if they stay healthy going into the tournament. So of those top five, six, seven teams, I think they might be one of the top two or three most talented. And, you know, they were sitting most of the year, early in the year, you know, six, eight, ten to one. Now they're up to 18 to one. Let's take Kansas 18 to one as a as a nice, nice value play here.”
76-50 — Kansas beat Miami 76-50 in the Elite Eight of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, advancing to the Final Four (Wikipedia, 2022 NCAA tournament results).
“it's crazy betonline.net line for this one arizona minus six and a half versus ucla thoughts on this So UCLA won the first game when they played against Arizona. This game took place January 25th They dominated the game but a lot of things have changed since then This game is going to be played at home for Arizona looking for revenge And then on top of that, the best two players, in my opinion, here for UCLA, you have Johnny Zuzang. Johnny Zuzang was in COVID protocols last week, just came out yesterday afternoon. I don't think you can step out and do nothing for a week. and then just get right back on the court and play at a high level. So his last two games, maybe he was suffering from COVID. He did not shoot well, not even close to 50%. And then his running mate here, Jimmy Jack was Jr. He's listed as questionable with an ankle injury. He went out of the last game with an ankle injury. So even if he plays, I don't think he's 100% here. Home court, really big in the Pac-12 here. I'm thinking Arizona here. I think they're going to climb into the lead here in the conference. So we'll lay the 6.5 Arizona over UCLA tonight.”
76-66 — Arizona beat UCLA 76-66; the 10-point margin covers -6.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one is the Oilers. Money line, plus 104 versus the Capitals. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so this game's got a lot of layers here. The Capitals and the Oilers are similar teams. They like to play at a real fast pace. They have a couple superstars up front, two to three on each team, and they have to score because both teams just don't have the defensive depth, and they just have average goaltending. So one thing that they do is they rely on the power play, both teams. So what we have here is Edmonton superstars up front, McDavid, Jazeidel are healthy right now. And they have been all year for Washington, Alex Ovechon healthy, but Nick Backstrom has only played 13 games and hasn't looked like himself. And TJ Oshie is out for this game with an upper body injury. We've talked about it before. We rarely back teams and top players first game back from injury or when top Top players are out, and these injuries, I feel, have just destroyed the Capitals' power play. So if you look at the last seven to eight years across the NHL, Capitals' top five power play almost every year with Overtin and all the weapons they have up front. This year, they ranked 28th in power play percentage, and they've scored, get this, just six power play goals in the month of January when you're on back-to-back days of travel, especially after an emotional overtime victory over your rival. Pittsburgh last night, you're just not going to be able to make adjustments and work on the power play like you normally would. I think they could be in trouble here. I think that's the difference tonight, especially against a rested Edmonton Oilers team that is fighting their way back in the Pacific. Wrong team favored. We're going with the Edmonton Oilers money line, plus 104 tonight over the Washington Capitals. Boom, there it is right there.”
5-3 — Edmonton Oilers beat Washington Capitals 5-3 on a late Ryan Nugent-Hopkins go-ahead goal; the Oilers moneyline pick wins (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net for this one. Wake Forest minus 12.5 versus the Pitt Panthers. Break this one down for us. All right. So I think I got a pretty good feel on the ACC. You know, so I go to games here when they're Miami, seeing these teams over the last couple years, and Pitt Panthers, there's no great team. Well, maybe Duke is in the ACC, even though Miami's leading. It's just not a real good year for the ACC, but the teams at the bottom are really bad. and Pitt Panthers are 8-13. They're 3-7 in conference play. They're going to be playing with an associate head coach tonight, Mylon Brown. He'll be the acting head coach because Jeff Capell is out with COVID. And they even jumped out to a 13-5 lead in their last game against Boston College. But by halftime they were losing 31 They only shot 41 from the field this year they can even make free throws And that where they had excelled for a while They were 11-19 in that game. So that's where they have an edge. The only edge that they have in this game is maybe down low. And if you can't hit free throws, they're in trouble here. So this Wake Forest team was in a bad spot in their last game against Syracuse. They were coming off three straight wins. They had already beaten Syracuse. They had to play. When you play in that dome, the background, I mean, when you shoot with a totally different background, that cavernous background is really tough on kids the first time they get there. And I just think it did them in here. So I think they bounce back. Blowout special. Wake Forest, big time over Pitt. I think they're going to win this game by 20 to 25 points. And Pitt, when they lose, I mean, they lose by 15 points religiously”
91-75 — Wake Forest beat Pittsburgh 91-75, with Jake LaRavia and Alondes Williams leading the way; the Wake Forest moneyline pick wins (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one is Jazz minus two versus the Nuggets. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so there's something similar between these two teams. They lost their last game, both teams, to Minnesota. But other than that, these two teams are going in absolutely different directions. Denver, before that game, won five straight, was playing really well. They, in fact, even beat, before that loss, to Minnesota, Milwaukee and Milwaukee, 136-100. They'd even beaten Brooklyn on the road by six. So, this is a team that's coming together, and they're going to have Murray. He's coming back soon, so I think they're going to get him the next month, month and a half. And I think this is going to be a tough team to take out. They've also lost the last three times in Utah, so you know they're going to be fired up for this game. On the other hand, Utah not only lost to Minnesota, they lost all of their last five games, and only one of the games was close. You talk about a team that's struggling right now. They need to get to the all-star break. They're going to have to make a trade, in my opinion. Joe Inglis is one of these guys you go, oh, he's a veteran. He scores, you know, 10, 12 points a game, but he's also the first guy off the bench. And when Conley doesn't start or Mitchell doesn't start, he starts. He's that glue. He can play point guard. He can play shooting guard, does a little bit of everything. And he's done for the year with an ACL injury. So I think that this team is rudderless. Rudy Gobert's not playing in this game. Donovan Mitchell's not playing in this game. Djokic he going to have a field game He going to do whatever he wants He going to be like one of those celebrity chefs He can cook up whatever he wants So even if Hassan Whiteside who is listed as questionable for the game guards him, Hassan Whiteside played here in Miami. He does not like to come out. So on defense and come to the three-point line, Jokic, if Whiteside plays, could have five, six, seven, eight threes. and then down low, if Whiteside doesn't play, he'll do whatever he wants. He could end up with 18, 20 rebounds, get a bunch of putbacks here. This line's off. Denver should be four or five-point favorite here. We're going to go with a level two lock. We're going to go with the Denver Nuggets plus two at Utah tonight. Boom, there it is right there, the Denver Nuggets and the Utah Jazz,”
104-108 — Utah Jazz beat Denver Nuggets 108-104, completing a season sweep; Denver lost by 4, missing the +2 cover (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this is Raptors minus 2.5 versus Miami. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yes. So watch the heat game against Toronto over the weekend. And Miami fell behind, made a run, but couldn't get it done. But Toronto took every punch that Miami had in Miami, where Miami is almost unbeatable, and still held them off. Jimmy Butler missed the game last night. They got blown out last night with, get this, a right big toe irritation. So the way that they describe some of these injuries, I mean, is absolutely crazy. Okay, I can see, you know, a right shoulder contusion. How about James Harden tonight? I mean, I'm looking at some of these things. His injury, and he's listed as questionable, is a right hand strain. Not a hamstring, a hand strain. And they list these guys as questionable. I don't think Jimmy Butler is going to play. Long season, guys miss more games than I've ever seen before. It's ridiculous. So he played in that game over the weekend where they couldn't beat Toronto. And Pascal Siakam, underrated. Fred Van Fleet, oh my God. This guy is, I mean, there's no such thing. Doesn't feel the pressure here. So Miami is forced to just shoot three-pointers. They got a bunch of G-leaguers that have overachieved for a long time. And the last couple, this is the start of maybe a little bit of a downturn for the number one seed here right now in the East. I like Toronto here. Blowout special number one over the Miami Heat.”
110-106 — Toronto Raptors beat Miami Heat 110-106, a 4-point margin that covers -2.5 (ESPN).
“on the season are 40 and 9 the Nets are 29 and 20 betonline.net line for this one is Suns minus seven versus the Nets thoughts on this one Lee yeah this we could be seeing could be seeing an NBA finals here. So preview and Brooklyn, all of a sudden, you know, people thought getting some guys back, but things would improve. Well, last four games, they've lost to Minnesota on the road, the Lakers at home. And we had that one We said that the Lakers in crunch time we going to take that one Denver at home and at Golden State So they been playing some pretty decent competition Now they're going to play the best team in the league. And I don't think we're going to see James Harden because of his right hand contusion. You know, crazy. So now Phoenix is starting to get on a roll again. They're one of these teams. They're like Utah. and when they get going, I mean, just look out. I mean, the entire month of January, lost one game, won 13 out of 14 here. So I think they want to send a message. They outlasted Brooklyn in the first game in Brooklyn. They are just – people think of them as an offensive machine, but top seven in both offense and defense here, and just don't think that Brooklyn, they don't have the firepower to hang with them. And like I said, they do the little things. Phoenix, they rebound. They share the ball. They're up there with assists here at home. And also free throw shooting when it counts. If you get a 2-3, 5-point game, a minute or two left to go in the game, the other team starts foul. They knock down their free throws. So we're going to go with a second blowout. Don't overthink this one. Phoenix Suns, minus seven, blowout special, number two, over the Brooklyn Nets. Oh, there it is right there.”
121-111 — Phoenix Suns beat Brooklyn Nets 121-111, extending their win streak to 11 straight; the 10-point margin covers -7 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one is over 6.5 goals plus 100. That's the Rangers and Florida Panthers. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Under normal circumstances, I would be betting on the home underdog, New York Rangers here, with the opponent traveling on a back-to-back from Columbus to New York. But if you haven't seen what the Florida Panthers are doing offensively, you need to check it out tonight. They have just scored 73 goals in 15 games in the month of January, which is the most in the NHL in one month last 15 years. Since December 30th alone, these guys have scored six or more goals six times. Let me repeat that. They've scored six or more goals six times. That number is astronomical. Some bottom-tier teams can barely do that once in a season. I can't bet against this team right now with the way they're moving offensively. The only issue that you can find in their game right now is your goaltending. They're goaltending just below league average in the month of January, and they're going to be starting a rookie backup goaltender. Spencer Knight, he's really up and down. Sometimes he's great. Sometimes, I mean, they pull him by the end of the first, early second. He's in the big stage here playing Madison Square Garden. That's already a really tough venue to play in as a rookie, but gets even harder when you're giving up an average of 3.3 goals per game on the road. They've only played twice since early December, has this team here. And these are two of the fastest-paced, most talented groups in the NHL here on offense. So let's not overthink this one also. I think we're going to see a 3-3, 4-2 game early in the third. So we're going here over six-and-a-half goals, plus 100 New York Rangers, Florida Panthers, level two lock.”
5-2 — New York Rangers beat Florida Panthers 5-2 at Madison Square Garden; the combined 7 goals clears Over 6.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.net line for this one is Tennessee minus 11.5 versus the Aggies. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so sometimes a game, we play a game based on numbers in history. Like in football. So, for instance, like Nick Saban. Big games, he's money. When he's laying like 25, 35 points, you go the other way. Buzz Peterson is not a coach you want to lay points with. But as an underdog, and trust me, followed his career when he was at Virginia Tech, he gets his team up as a dog playing on national TV. They're playing at Tennessee. I mean, getting double digits? Are you kidding me? This team is much, much improved. It's not like his first year. This started in 2019, 2020. This has been their three and a half years. So he's getting it going right now. Yep, they lost a couple games in a row here. But Tennessee, another team here. Get this here. One and eight against the spread. The last nine home games is a favorite between seven and 12 and a half points. Falls right in between here. we're taking the 11 and a half in texas a&m here wrong team favored texas a&m against tennessee tonight boom there it is right there rolling with the aggies in this one tennessee minus 11 and a half first texas a&m that is the wrong team favorite little college hoop action”
90-80 — Tennessee beat Texas A&M 90-80; the Aggies lost by only 10, covering the +11.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Sixers, minus 3.5 versus the Grizzlies. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Well, you talk about being hot. So Memphis Grizzlies, in the month of January, have lost three times. Wow. That's it. After a slow start, 35-17. I mean, a lot of people thought this was a 500 or barely above 500 team. Philadelphia 76ers, same thing. Right. Only three times in the month of January. So two teams that are led by their star players, and they're both teams getting healthy. Both teams also not really many COVID cases of late. So, I mean, these teams are looking really good right now. Here's the problem, I think, when you look at this game, the matchups. So, Stephen Adams, you know, doesn't get a lot of notoriety. He's not going to make many All-Star games, but he knows his role for Memphis. It's rebounding, playing defense. So, what does he do? He does probably up there top five, top six centers in the NBA. So, probably not going to get to an All-Star game anytime soon, but feels comfortable in it. They space the floor. So when you space the floor and you've got guys that are quick and can penetrate and also shoot threes, it makes it really tough for a defense. So Sixers, one of these teams, I like to slow things down. And I just don't know if they can guard these quick guys like Morant here. So tough, tough matchup here for John Bede and his team here. I just think, wrong team favorite, I like Memphis plus three and a half here. I think they win the game outright in Philadelphia tonight.”
122-119 — Philadelphia 76ers beat Memphis Grizzlies 122-119 in overtime; Memphis lost by only 3, covering the +3.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Breaking it down a few different ways. Duke minus 5.5 versus Notre Dame, but then you take Duke on the money line. That's minus 250, and Notre Dame is plus 210. Lee, break this down on how this is bet a little, win a lot. Yeah, real important week for both teams. So both teams are sitting second and third in the ACC behind Miami. Both just a half a game. Duke, tonight's game, and then they've got to go to North Carolina on Saturday. And then Notre Dame after this game has to travel to Miami, short turnaround, play on Wednesday night, and then Saturday afternoon at North Carolina State. So I think things are going to start settling out here. We're going to know more about the race here after this week. But it all starts tonight. Duke playing extremely well, but they've got to go on the road. And you've got a freshman team here, almost all freshmen for Duke, playing a team Notre Dame has two senior starters and two junior starters. So you've got the experience here. You have a team here, and Notre Dame played extremely well at home, undefeated on the season playing at home here. Really good shooting threes here. So take nothing away from Duke. But, you know, they beat Louisville. There was so much going on with Louisville. They fired their coach. Also, Duke not having trouble from the charity strike. Shooting in that game last game just 53%. So in a close game, let's say even if Duke has a two, three-point lead and they start fouling them, they're going to have trouble probably hitting free throws here. and got a team here in Notre Dame here that can shoot three. So just looking at the matchup here, hitting, drilling here, 178 three-pointers on the year. So like home underdogs here, conference play here, I don't think you're going to need the five-and-a-half points here. We're going with Notre Dame, money line over Duke, bet a little, win a lot and a plus 210 so every hundred dollars you wager if it hits you win 210”
57-43 — Duke beat Notre Dame 57-43 at Purcell Pavilion; the Notre Dame moneyline pick lost outright (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Blackhawks money line, minus 108 versus Vancouver. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so Q, I think the Chicago Blackhawks are going to be excited to see the Vancouver Canucks tonight. They were crushed by their scheduling changes over the last week. You know, people aren't familiar what happened. Teams that played in Canada had a bunch of games canceled. And so what happened? Because it affected some of the teams in the United States. So they had to play the Minnesota Wild twice and also the Colorado Avalanche twice in a span of seven days. So you're not going to find much open ice or quality shots against teams like that. So facing Vancouver tonight should definitely open things up for the Canucks. Things are not going how they had hoped. With Bruce Boudreau here as their new head coach, They started off 7-0 when they hired him back in December, but the shine has definitely worn off lately. I just don't see how they're going to keep up with even the average teams here the rest of the year. This line should be like minus 125, minus 130. I think we're going to see something like a 3-1 final here for the Chicago Blackhawks here. So let's go with Chicago Blackhawks here. Moneyline minus 108 Level 1 lock”
1-3 — Vancouver Canucks beat Chicago Blackhawks 3-1 at United Center; the Blackhawks moneyline pick lost (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Wyoming minus 7.5 versus Air Force. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so I've actually played Wyoming a couple times this year. Most people don't follow their basketball program, but it's a team that has come together and they have a bunch of scoring options. They're well coached. I think some people might get off them because they lost their last game, but sometimes after you've won a bunch in a row and they had you lose the game you just don give enough credit to the other team Boise State played really well and ended their six winning streak So I think Wyoming one of the best teams in the Mountain West Conference They're 4-1 Mountain West Conference play, and they can win on the road. This kid, Graham Ike, big-time talent here. Sophomore forward, he scored at least 19 points in five straight games. he uh he's averaging uh 8.9 rebounds per game and uh Connor Maldonado senior guard this guy's reached 20 points in two of the last three games so they defend they can score uh Air Force doesn't try to slow the game down which you know sometimes used to give them some coverage but the Cowboys are a really solid team, right? 57th in Ken Pomeroy's rankings, whereas almost every major statistical category, Air Force is from 250 to 350 here. Blowout special, Wyoming Cowboys over Air Force, and please take note, 6 o'clock Eastern start.”
63-61 — Wyoming beat Air Force 63-61 on a buzzer-beater, winning by only 2 points, short of the -7.5 cover (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Hawks, minus two versus the Celtics. How do you see this one shaking out, Lee? All right. Atlanta Hawks are a good team. They just went through some problems with injuries and COVID. I mean, some other teams could get by, like the Miami Heat. But the Atlanta Hawks, top three, and games lost to starters. Their bench was decimated. now all of a sudden getting healthy, and they made a big trade. What did they do? They decided, okay, let's look at what we're doing here, and let's figure out what's wrong. And what they figured out was, believe it or not, that they had a player that just didn't fit. Who was that player? Cam Reddish. So first-round pick just didn't fit with them. They had DeAndre Hunter. DeAndre Hunter, really good player, never going to be in an all-star game. Might take a couple years. but 6'7", he's long, he can guard, distributes the ball, scores when he needs to, scores almost 13 a game a year. I think he's their unsung hero. They just, all of a sudden, I mean, the last game that they played, they didn't even need Young to go crazy. So their bench went absolutely nuts in that game. They played Sacramento. This bench is really deep. I mean, they got guys like Lou Williams. Lou Williams can come out and score 20, 30 in the night. Bob Donovich. I mean, the list goes on and on. In fact, Trey Young led the starters with 17. After that, two guys had nine. Two guys had eight. Chris Capella, he's back. He missed a bunch of games. He's their defensive stopper in the middle. I like Atlanta big here. Level two lock. Atlanta Hawks over the Boston Celtics here on Friday night”
108-92 — Atlanta Hawks beat Boston Celtics 108-92, a 16-point margin that easily covers -2 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Rams minus 3.5 versus San Francisco in the NFC Championship game. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay. So I think I see this game differently than most people. So San Francisco wins the first game and was dominant. Controlled the ball. I mean, it was their game. Second game, the Rams are up 17-0. And I'm watching the game with a friend. And I actually have San Francisco. And I'm thinking, not good. Sure enough, right before the half, 42 seconds before the half. I even wrote down a note on this. The Rams had the ball at their own 42-yard line, third and one, up 17-0. And McVeigh decides to go empty backfield. I'm like, what? What are you doing? Just get the first down. You can't go empty backfield. I mean, you're telling the defense that you're going to pass the ball. San Francisco comes with an all-out blitz. They sacked Stafford for an 8- or 10-yard loss. All of a sudden, they had to punt. Sam Cisco gets the ball back, they get a field goal, right? Four half, everything changed. And it was weird. It was almost like I felt that McVay was distracted. I mean, in the second half, he knew, I think he found out that the game was meaningless. His play calling second half wasn the same And then what happens You know San Francisco that last second drive ties it up goes into overtime and wins the game I just think that this Rams team getting better and better look at the first two games in the playoffs take nothing away from what San Francisco did but they destroyed Arizona they were up 27 to 3 on Tampa Bay I think that right now OBJ and Cup these two guys they can't be guarded so um i don't trust both quarterbacks but i trust stafford a little bit more over jimmy g here i think it's tough to beat a team three times i think they're begging you to play san francisco level two luck we're going with the la rams nfc championship second year in a row nfc team is going to be staying home and it's going to be playing the super bowl i like the Rams. They win this game here 30-20.”
20-17 — Los Angeles Rams beat San Francisco 49ers 20-17 in the NFC Championship Game, winning outright on the moneyline (Wikipedia, citing official NFL result).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Marshall minus 2.5 versus Middle Tennessee State. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so there's some teams that are still under the radar. And where you start and where you end up, two totally different things. In many cases, look at the Cleveland Cavaliers. I mean, after a couple weeks, I'm like, you know what? This team isn't that bad. I've given them out to my clients quite a few times. They're third in the Eastern Conference. Well, here's two teams that are going in different directions in Conference USA. Marshall was picked by many people to finish fourth out of 12 teams. Where are they? Seven and 12, and they've lost nine straight games in almost every game they've gotten blown out. Middle Tennessee State was picked to finish 10th or 11th. They've won each of the last three games. In fact, a couple of teams they beat, like Florida Atlantic by 13, Florida International by 11, who they held to 39 points. Those were teams people thought and still think have a chance in the conference tournament. So you have to identify these changes. Middle Tennessee State right now shooting the three-ball well, 77th in the nation. but here's the problem with a team like Marshall. Marshall is coached by Dan D'Antoni. Who is that? Yeah. Well if you know anything like his dad play no defense They ranked 253rd through the Marshall Thundering Herd And their leading scorer a kid named Kinsey averaging 20 points per game But here's the problem. He's shooting 17% on his three-point attempts. That's like my shooting percentage from three-point attempts in my Sunday game. So this is a team that's going nowhere. You've got to take advantage of it. They're laying two-and-a-half points at home to Middle Tennessee State here. Hidden gem, Middle Tennessee State plus the two-and-a-half over Marshall.”
MTSU 81, MRSH 79 — Middle Tennessee beat Marshall 81-79 outright, easily covering as a +2.5 underdog (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Chiefs minus seven versus the Bengals. Crank this one down for us, Lee. Usually, and we saw it last week. I mean, in the playoffs, these games, these teams are very similar. These teams are very close. Last weekend, every game came down to the end. But I can tell you this much. This game's not coming down to the end. Now, you look at the score when they played the first time. Cincinnati actually won at home 34-31 over Kansas City. But I went back and watched the game. Steve Fagnola was just playing vanilla coverage, wasn't blitzing very much, playing a lot of man-on-man. Trust me, he's going to change things up here. So Joe Burrow threw for over 400 yards in that game, had a big game. Kansas City was like they were going through the motions. So generally, when you have the rematch, the team that lost the first game has the advantage. They can make those adjustments. I think the coaching staff for Kansas City is fantastic. I think Andy Reid, one of the best play callers. See Spagnuolo, big game, great. Only reason they lost Super Bowl last year, no offensive line. They plugged those holes, drafted a really good center out of Oklahoma, made a couple really good acquisitions and free agency for the offensive line. also for some backups and special teams. So I just think that, you know, since they have to go against a totally different type offense and they faced the first two games in the playoffs, they faced a Raiders team that Waller, the tight end, he wasn't 100%. Just a team that, you know, was probably happy to be there. Now, then they got the next game, they get to play against Ryan Tannehill. Best part about Ryan Tannehill is his wife. So three interceptions. He gave the game away. So Tennessee didn't follow the game plan here. Now they've got to face the Cincinnati's defense, an offense where Tariq Hill, almost unguardable, put him in the slot, can't double him, got a tight end in Kelsey, almost unguardable. So, you know, when they faced the two opponents that they faced, Totally different type looks. Then their offensive line, they give up nine sacks. So Kansas City's pass rush coming on here. Totally different environment. Games at home in Kansas City. Blowout special. Kansas City Chiefs get the line now. It's minus seven. It can only go up. Kansas City minus seven over Cincinnati. Big time blowout special on Sunday in the AFC Championship game.”
CIN 27, KC 24 (OT) — The Bengals beat the Chiefs 27-24 in overtime in the AFC Championship, so Kansas City's -7 spread busts on the outright loss (Wikipedia, citing the official box score).
“We're going to roll with this one, betonline.agline. The Blue Jackets and the Rangers, over six goals, minus 107. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so Columbus gets embarrassed last night on home ice to the flames. There is no other way to put it. They gave up, get this, a franchise record, 62 shots on goal and lost 6-0. And that was with their all-star goalie in net. Tonight, they're going to have plenty of motivation to come out and make up for that beatdown, especially against a division rival like the Rangers. So I think they definitely put up a few goals here But the only problem is that starting their number one guy last night means that they have to start their backup tonight against a Rangers offense that is one of the most talented in the league from top to bottom They get plenty of scoring even from their defensemen like Adam Fox, and they have three different lines that can score. I just don't see either team getting out of this game without a ton of chances on both ends on the ice. I think we see something like a 3-3 game going into the third period. You love that. That way you don't have to watch the third period, Q. You've got to win or someone. When it's 3-3, someone's either winning it in the third period or even if it goes to overtime. That's the best thing about, you know, when you have a tie, you go into overtime, someone's got to win it. So I think I see a 3-3 game, something like that, or a 4-2 game going into the third period. That means we'll probably have a winner. real quick in the third period. So we're going to go over six goals, minus 107, Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, level two lock.”
CBJ 5, NYR 3 — Blue Jackets beat the Rangers 5-3; 8 combined goals clear the Over 6 total (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. We're going to roll the Avalanche. Minus 1.5 goals, plus 130 versus the Bruins. Thoughts on this one? I think the Boston Bruins have hit their peak for the season, and it's only downhill from here. They've hit a hot streak in the last 10 to 15 games, especially with the return to Carrasque. But let's be honest. he's a band-aid for that goaltending unit at best he's 34 years old he hadn't played since June and at best he's going to be rusty but at his worst he's going to be a number two goalie this year in their last five games of the last splitting time here in the net they've given up four goals per game for the uh for a team that's going to you know just have real time big time offensive of talent, they might be up against it here. This is now their first road trip, long road trip here since the beginning of December. And I don't think there's a more intimidating place to play on the road right now than in Denver, Colorado. The Avalanche are 18-3 at home this season, kind of gone under the radar. You know, maybe some of these other teams, you know, like Toronto and Florida, people have been talking about the Avalanche, won 16 straight at home with an average of 4.8 goals per game in that span. They're rested coming into this one. They're almost back to full strength, and I don't see why they shouldn't stop that train now. I think this one is going to be a blowout here. Bet a little. Win a lot here. Colorado Avalanche, minus the one and a half goals, plus 130 over maybe an overrated Boston Bruins team.”
COL 4, BOS 3 (OT) — Avalanche beat the Bruins 4-3 in overtime, a 1-goal margin that falls short of Colorado -1.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Razorbacks minus 3.5 versus Ole Miss. How do you see this one shaking out? Yeah, well, this SEC race is crazy. So, Auburn ranked number one in the country. Kentucky ranked 12th. And then you have four teams sitting 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th in Alabama and Arkansas. And Tennessee's ranked 18th. They're 7th in the SEC right now because only seven games have been played. They're 4-3. LSU's ranked 19th, even Florida at 9th. So I think there is a really top-heavy, you know, theme to this SEC. Some really good teams. And then there's some junk teams like South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Georgia. And they've had each of those five bottom level teams have had like a good game or two here and there. And Ole Miss, every time they win a game, have a big game, they come back the next game, it seems like, in lay and egg. Beat Mississippi State, next game at Texas A&M, lost by 16. They beat Florida, 70-54 at home. Now they have to play two days later, three games in five days. It's a scheduling oddity. So this Arkansas team, they really come at you. They control the boards. They're relentless. They actually hit free throws. They used to have a history of not hitting free throws. Hit 21 of 25 in their last game, forced 19 turnovers. J.D. Notte, 17 points, and a double-double from Jalen Williams, 14 points and 11 rebounds. This Ole Miss team, they just don't have that one stud guy here. So Razorbacks average nearly 18 free throws a game, which kind of talks to their relentless attack. They attack the rim offensively and defensively. They average 16 turnovers per game. So I think they're going to wear out this Ole Miss team here. Just think this Ole Miss team right now sitting at 10 and 9, by the end of the year, we're going to be like, wow, this team really was terrible. So I'm going to go with the blowout special here on the Arkansas Razorbacks at Ole Miss.”
ARK 64, MISS 55 — Arkansas beat Ole Miss 64-55, a 9-point margin that covers Arkansas -3.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag. Line for this one. The Bulls, minus 4.5 versus the Raptors. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so the Bulls have their stars. They have Zach Levine. They have DeMar DeRozan. They got Bukovic. These guys are really good. But what's going on right now? They lost Alex Caruso. He broke his wrist. Lonzo Ball's out for probably another month. Kobe White's out. So all these complementary players, you know, the fourth, fifth, and sixth guys, it's hurting them. They've actually lost six of the last eight games. They stand 12th in the league in scoring. They're not in the top five like they were to start the year. They are 28th in rebound. You talk about things that, you know, end up costing you as the season goes on. 28th out of 32 teams. and even falling down, not sharing the ball like they used to, 16th in assists here at 23.9 per game. So I'm seeing a team that's starting to fall back. I think they're going to end up like fourth, fifth, sixth, believe it or not, in the Eastern Conference because of these injuries. And maybe teams were overlooking them for a while, but this Toronto team is well coached. They're relentless on the boards here. I think it's a great spot here to go with Toronto. So we're going to go with Toronto here. I think that they get the job done here on the road, getting points at Chicago. So real strong play with a lot of layers here.”
CHI 111, TOR 105 — Bulls beat the Raptors 111-105, a 6-point margin that leaves Toronto short of covering +4.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. the Oilers' money line, minus 138 versus the Canucks. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so I decided on three blowouts here. I think everyone has like a hangover from the weekend. Right. Just weird. I mean, it was a weird day yesterday. I think it was almost like a post-Super Bowl. Right. I mean, because everyone was watching all four games, and all four games came down to the end so people just needed you know to kind of get to work and they were kind of like you know almost like it like after you have three or four drinks you just want to sit down and relax You're buzzed a little bit. I think they were buzzed from watching so much football. But here's a great opportunity. Now, sometimes in the middle of the week, we find games and we pounce on them. This is a big one. Hint, hint. So there's no sugarcoating it. The Edmonton Oilers have been absolutely abysmal for over a month now. They were first in the Pacific Division back at the start of December, and they have now gone on a 3-11-2 run since then, and now head coach Dave Tippett is likely going to get fired. But I think this line is an overreaction. So look at where the Oilers struggled over the last two months. It has been their goal-pending and their power play. Remember, their power play was breaking records last year, and we talked about it many times. They started off the season just as well, and then all of a sudden it fell off, which put a lot of pressure on their forwards to score at even strength. So if you look at the other side, Vancouver, they have the worst penalty kill in the NHL by almost six percentage points at 67%. Since the start of December, they're barely above 72% on the penalty kill. So you always also have to keep in mind with COVID news here, especially with these Canadian teams that are sometimes under totally different protocols in the American teams. Vancouver is without their top two goalies. They have been forced to call up two goalies from the minor league team just to fill in for the time being. So the Oilers are facing a second string minor league goalie in this one. I know they've struggled, but they have the two best players in the NHL against the worst penalty kill in hockey and a second-string minor league goalie in that. That's really like their fourth goalie. I mean, you almost never see these guys even get called up. So don't overthink this one. Take the better team and the better spot to put up goals here. This is one of those games you love, Q. I'm seeing a 5-1, 6-1 final score here. Edmonton Oilers here, money line, minus 138. This is going to be an absolute blowout.”
EDM 3, VAN 2 (OT) — Oilers beat the Canucks 3-2 in overtime, so Edmonton's moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Duke minus 11-1-2 versus Clemson. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so Duke loses a couple weeks ago to Miami. Come back, and next couple games, blowout teams. They lose at Florida State where they blew a lead, squandered a lead, and next game, blowout. I think they're going to go on a run here. This team is really talented, Paolo Blanchero. I think he's just going to feast on a Clemson team that can't play defense and can't rebound, Wendell Moore Jr. How versatile is this guy? 15 points, eight assists, taking care of the ball. Even the complementary players are getting the job done here. Look at Duke. I mean, even the numbers back it up. They're 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 19th in defensive efficiency. Rarely do you see two teams in the top 20 in both here. So they had a couple of hiccups, but I think we're going to see a blowout. This Clemson team they can stay with anyone who decent So blowout special number two Blue Devils Duke here minus 11 blowout over one of their rivals the Clemson Tigers”
DUKE 71, CLEM 69 — Duke beat Clemson 71-69, a 2-point margin that falls well short of Duke -11.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Lake Show, minus 2.5 versus the Nets. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, and I don't know if people notice this. First time since early November that LeBron James is now listed on the injury report. I mean, he's been playing for 20, 25 games now. He's been back, and they would have him listed as probable every game. I mean, have you been watching him play? I mean, hey, they haven't been great of late, but bottom line is he's carrying this team. He was even asked, you know, if he minds it. He goes, no, I've been doing it my whole life. You know, he came to Cleveland, and he had to resurrect a team there that wasn't good. So I see this team. I watched the Miami game and saw a team that was playing much better. They did lose the game, but Miami shot threes from behind the three-point line extremely well in that game. But their defense actually looked better. Miami, sometimes you hit a contested shot. Miami's hitting those shots. So I think that they're going to face a Brooklyn team not good at home, lost four of the last six Anthony Davis will be back for this game Even at 20 25 minutes he be a big boost here They already winning the board battle and he just make that so much easier They can go inside now with Anthony Davis. I expect him, like I said, to play 20, 25 minutes. And Brooklyn's just not the same team, you know, without Kevin Durant. Kyrie Irving, as you know, can't play in the home game. So I just – they've got a lot of nice names, Brooklyn. But at home, that's where you fade them. On the road, they're going to be a much stronger team with Kyrie Irving. He's a guy that can put in 25-30 a night. They used to have a bunch of guys that score 4, 6, 8, and 10. Too much here for one player to just carry a team. I like the Lakers here. Blow out special minus 2.5 over Brooklyn in Brooklyn.”
LAL 106, BKN 96 — Lakers beat the Nets 106-96, a 10-point margin that covers Los Angeles -2.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag, line for this one. The Jazz plus 9.5 versus the Suns. Break this one down for us, Lee. Wow. I mean, this is the game of the night in the NBA, and I think Phoenix, you know, might be the best team in the West. In fact, I think that they are. But I think that the odds makers value the back-to-back games too much. I think they give too many points to the team that has extra rest. And, I mean, these guys are professionals. I mean, when they test basketball players, they're the most conditioned athletes in the world. They're flying first class. I mean, they're sitting in seats where they can lay out. They can go to sleep. They sleep at the Ritz-Carlton. So, yeah, I know that Utah played at Golden State, but they only lost by two without Mitchell last night. Now, the line is kind of built in that he's not playing tonight, but there is an actual chance, almost 50%, that he plays. If he plays and you're getting nine and a half points, you're sitting pretty. Even if he doesn't, I mean, I think you have one of the best coaches in the NBA, Quinn Snyder. I think you have the third best team in the West here in the Utah Jazz. You had guys in that game, Golden State last night. They almost beat Golden State last night. They shut down Golden State. Golden State only scored 11 points in the fourth quarter. You had guys like Royce O'Neal, didn't even score in the game, 0-4 from the field. You had Mike Conley, didn't have one of his better games, 3-for-10. You had their best three-point shooter here, Joe Inglis. He was 1-for-6 from the field from three-point land. Bogdanovich, 1-for-7, and they only lose by two. So they're getting a lot of help off the bench. All of a sudden, Rudy Gay playing really well, the acquisition. Finally healthy, Jordan Clarkson. We know what he can do. So I just think the line's too much here. And I think the line should be like six, six and a half here. We'll take the Utah Jazz here, plus nine and a half. Wrong team favored against the Phoenix Suns.”
PHX 115, UTA 109 — Suns beat the Jazz 115-109, a 6-point margin that Utah covers as a +9.5 underdog (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Kansas, the Jayhawks are minus 6.5 versus the Red Raiders. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, number 7 versus number 18 doesn't get much better than that. Two teams that are coached well. Two teams that are really coming on, playing at high levels here. Texas Tech won the first game in this meeting at home. They play some incredible defense. Kansas, though, 9-0 at home here, coming off a huge comeback win against their rival, Kansas State, on Saturday. So this is a game you don't want to miss here. So I just think that even though Texas Tech is good, they're going to really have to defend the entire game in a really tough venue. And a team, I think this is Kansas' circle game of the year. So I always talk about circle games. There's that one or two games where teams get up four here. In that first game, Red Raiders forced the Jayhawks into 17 turnovers. Kansas was terrible on the glass. Sometimes that extra energy, that's what rebounding is all about. So I expect Kansas to close that gap here. And on top of that, I just think that they shoot too well. You know, this is a game of, you know, if you have guys that are athletes and guys that can get off shots, you're probably going to have the better team in Kansas. It's over 50% of their shots this year, over 37% of their threes, really tough venue to play in. And Texas Tech got them in the first game here, but Kansas averages over 80 points per game. They allow just 67 here. So, hey, I love playing Texas Tech as an underdog at home or also playing a game that's a tight line at home here. But I think this is where you lay the points here. Lay the 6.5, Kansas Jayhawks blowout special over Texas Tech in Big 12 action.”
KU 94, TTU 91 — Kansas beat Texas Tech 94-91 in double overtime, a 3-point margin that falls short of Kansas -6.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Wake Forest minus 10.5 versus Boston College. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So ACC is wide open this year. I mean, Duke is probably the best team, but Miami's knocked them off. Florida State knocked them off. Florida State-Miami played on Saturday for the second time. It was another one-point game, incredible game that I went to. Miami was down by 26, came back and only lost by one, had a shot to win it. So what are we finding out in the ACC? And the ACC is still good. They may not have the super teams, may not have four or five teams, but a lot of good teams, they know each other inside and out. Even if teams get leads, it seems like the other team comes back. I think Wake Forest is so much improved. I mean, they were nowhere two, three years ago, made a coaching change. They've got some guys, you know, that play smart. But they're going to go up against a team, Boston College, that can play defense. In fact, they played last year a real tight game, only a two-point game that Wake Forest won. So what are they getting? They got this kid, Makai Ashton-Lyford, 19 points in at least three of the last four games. So they shoot the ball well. They're rebounding well. They're going to slow down the game, I believe, here. So I think that sometimes a team goes out and gets on a run like Wake Forest does. They beat North Carolina, which is their rival. We can talk about all these other schools, but for some reason, Wake Forest sees North Carolina as their rival over Duke, and they beat them. I mean, they dominated them 98-76 on Saturday. He's just a one-point favorite. So I think they might be feeling a little bit great, maybe too great about themselves here. And like I said, Demon Deacons here, you know, might, you know, just might overlook Boston College. But Boston College has won three of the last four games here. And I think that the rebounding edge is not going to be as much as the public would see it here. I'm going to take the points here. Take the points here as Boston College keeps this game close here. level one lock Boston College plus the points in their game against Wake Forest”
WF 87, BC 57 — Wake Forest routed Boston College 87-57, a 30-point margin that leaves Boston College well short of covering +10.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Rams are plus three versus Tampa Bay. Break this one down for us, Lee. So I think the line fishy Sometimes you play lines And in the NFL like a favorite by five in the regular season don lay it They only cover like 38 39 of the time And this line should be like 4 5 Why is it sitting at 3? And, in fact, I think it's going to go down to 2.5 by the time the game starts. So if you're smart and if you want to be on the right side like I am, you play it now because I think it's only going to go down, not go up. If you think it's going to go up, I think you're going to be playing the wrong side. And just think that the Rams here match up well with Tampa Bay. So let's look at the line of scrimmage. And Tampa Bay's offensive line banged up right now. What concerns me is they gave up four sacks to Philadelphia here. And the Rams' pass rush is better than that. Aaron Donald, practically unblockable. You have a rejuvenated Von Miller. He looks like he looked three, four years ago. In fact, remember, going back to that 2015 AFC title game, he had three sacks and also a pick in that game. So I think that Tom Brady's going to face a fierce rush here. And just think that the Rams, what are they going to do? They're going to put Jalen Ramsey on Mike Evans. And I think at most he's going to catch three, four balls. If that's the case, they're going to have to move down the field, and it's going to be not big chunk plays. I think Gronk, they might even double him, play him inside and outside with the safety on top. And I think they just match up well here. Obviously, I like Tom Brady a whole lot more than Matthew Stafford here, but OBJ looks like he really finally feels comfortable. First three, four weeks, he was running the wrong pattern. He was stopping in the middle of patterns, not finishing patterns. running the wrong routes, but looks like he's rejuvenated here. Give me the Rams. Plus three. Wrong team favored as they upset Tom Brady in the Tampa Bay Bucs.”
LAR 30, TB 27 — The Rams beat Tampa Bay 30-27, winning outright and covering Los Angeles +3 (Wikipedia, citing the official box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Bucks minus 9.5 versus the Bulls. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So it looks like every team right now in the NBA at some time or the other is experiencing COVID or injury situations. You've got to look at the injuries first for everything. In the NFL, you look at weather. But the NBA, you look at injuries. So Lonzo Ball is going to be out for a while with a knee injury. Zach Levine, he's out and also with a knee injury. For Milwaukee, you have Lopez, their center. He's been out, but he's been out practically the whole season. So you look at this Chicago team, they've somehow been able to lead the conference, but I think they're up against it here. So they're going to face a Milwaukee team, and without those two guys and the really good perimeter defensive guys, And they also stop the penetration and force, you know, guys, you know, to give up the ball. And then they're going to face a team that can shoot threes. And we're not just talking about, you know, Grayson Allen. He's really good. But, you know, they also have some guys here that can shoot it. Also, Drew Holiday, he came back in the last game when they beat Memphis by 12. They got Pat Connington. He's been back for a while, healthy. He scored 13 the other night. Dante DiVincenzo, he's an absolute weapon from the outside. So Milwaukee looks like they're in high gear right now. They're going to probably go on a run right now. They're sitting fourth but only two games back here. Sometimes you've got to lay it if you want to play it here. We going to go with the Milwaukee Bucks minus nine and a half over believe it or not the first place but not after tonight Chicago Bulls here blowout special”
MIL 94, CHI 90 — Bucks beat the Bulls 94-90, a 4-point margin that falls short of Milwaukee -9.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Going to roll with plus 150 for Moreno to finish by any way but a decision. So a TKO, a KO, a submission. It just can't be a decision over Figueroa. Break this one down for us, Lee. So this is the co-main event, UFC 270, 125-pound flyweight champ here, Brandon, the assassin baby Moreno. He's a 175 favorite, but we're going to take on this fight here as he fights a former champion here versus God of War, Figueroa. So this should be a great fight here. I mean, you talk about output, both of these two guys here, this nonstop action, whereas the championship fight, you know, you have two big guys could be a knockout. These two guys don't stop here. The first first time what happened was it was a you know it was a majority decision then reno took the belt in one of the most electrifying fights that we seen here in a long time so um figarito has struggled making the 125 pound weight limit uh very muscular for the division uh he's now 34 years of age doesn't get any easier making weight when you get up there in the lighter divisions the skill level is really high. And what happens is the slightest loss of speed and precision, I think really costs you way more than the heavier division. So Moreno just turned 28. He's been rumored to be training like a madman again. Back after he lost the majority decision the first time, I heard he went for like five and a half, six months, did not miss a day. So he's one of these guys that just might hold it for a long time. So I just expect Figueroa here to come out and apply pressure early. He's got to try something different here, maybe a couple different moves in the fight after being unable to put away the champ. But I expect him to gas out third, fourth round here, and I expect Marino to finish him. So we're going to go with Marino here plus 150 to finish him. That means submission or KO or TKO.”
Deiveson Figueiredo defeated Brandon Moreno by unanimous decision (48-47 x3) at UFC 270, so Moreno did not finish him and the bet busts (Wikipedia).
“betonline.ag line for this one San Jose Sharks money line plus 105 versus the Kraken, who by the way, are 3-13 since December 1st. Man, everyone can't be the Golden Knights, but how are you feeling this one, Lee? Shake it out for us. All right, so books continue to undervalue the San Jose Sharks team. So it happened all season because everyone expected this team to be a bottom dweller in the Pacific Division But they 40 games into the season and the Sharks are fourth in the West with a chance to be second in the division after tonight. Not flashy. They don't have a ton of big names. They have two goalies that have been backups their entire careers, and yet they're winning games on the road and against teams that will likely be considered, as we called, cup contenders as well. So we talked about it a few weeks ago. When you have a team that can score up and down the lineup on every single forward line, you have a chance to be competitive and be good. And they also have defensive depth to match that. So otherwise, what happens here is your top two defensemen, they're forced to play like 28 to 30 minutes a game, and they're going to get beat up by the time the playoff starts. That's exactly what we have here for the Sharks against Seattle. The Kraken have one of the worst defensive groups in the league, and we know how bad their goaltending has been all season long. Seattle just broke a nine-game losing streak the other night against the Blackhawks, and it's usually a good spot to fade a bad team after snapping a long winning streak here. I think the Sharks here take care of business. We're going with the San Jose Sharks here. Money line plus 105. Wrong team favorite over the Kraken.”
SEA 3, SJ 2 — Kraken beat the Sharks 3-2; San Jose's moneyline busts (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Phoenix Suns are minus two and a half versus the Mavericks. Break this one down for us, Lee. Well, two teams that are red hot here. I mean, and Dallas quietly is even hotter at 110 out of the last 11, but Phoenix is right there, and they can miss a part. and nothing stops them. I mean, Devin Booker, I mean, this is a guy that he's almost unguardable right now here. The team right now is shooting threes, lights out, and I've talked about you don't want to go against hot teams. And right now, shooting the basketball, the Phoenix Suns are it. So I just think it's a great situational play here. People are thinking maybe Dallas because they've won 10 of the last 11. can maybe knock off Phoenix at home but Phoenix has had their number in the first two games here And what it is it Luka and Christian Porzingis And these two guys that it I mean, they're struggling to find a third option. And Chris Paul just distributes the ball. Every night it seems like Phoenix comes up with that third and fourth option here. So I think this is a small line here. I know DeAndre Ayton's out, but McGee steps in. He's a solid replacement, and they just spaced the floor well. They had the ultimate field general out there running the show here. So we're going to lay the two-and-a-half points here. Blowout special in the marquee game tonight, the NBA. Phoenix Suns over the Dallas Mavericks.”
PHX 109, DAL 101 — Suns beat the Mavericks 109-101, an 8-point margin that covers Phoenix -2.5 (ESPN).
- Green Bay Packers pick'em
- Buffalo Bills +7.5
“So right now, Green Bay is minus six versus San Francisco. Buffalo is plus one and a half versus Kansas City. That's the betonline.ag line. How is this one breaking down to the two-team six-point teaser? Okay, so what happens is about 80% to 90% of the people out there, what they'll do is they'll pick a side or they'll go with a total. Different way to attack a game. And I do this in the NFL, only in the NFL, never in college football. Because college football, the scores are much higher, points are cheap. and you see these 48-41 games or 52-14. So what you see in the NFL a lot, once you get to this round at least, you see a lot of teams that are very similar, evenly matched. And the way I see this game here is the first game is the Packers laying six. I think Packers are going to win the game. But let's say they win the game like the first game by less than the field goal. then you're in trouble so I just think that because of the matchup I think when you've got Aaron Rodgers at home the best cold weather quarterback we may be ever seen in our history and he's going to be going up against the San Francisco team defense may be a little depleted on defense Bosa you know he went out of that game also Warner went out those two guys may play but may not be a hundred percent So green Bay at home I think is the right side I just don want to lay six points So I going to do a two team, six point teaser, uh, take that line from six down to a pick them. All they got to do is win the game at home. They go get that done. And then on the other side, and these two teams, both, both games, they faced each other in the year. So you can go back and you look at the matchups and I have Buffalo went into Kansas City and won that game Kansas City was not playing well Kansas City's playing better now both these teams are playing at a high level I just don't think that you can decide wow is Mahomes my guy or is Josh Allen my guy I don't think we're going to see a game here we're going to see a blowout I think you got two great quarterbacks going back and forth trading points here and so for that reason I'm going to take Buffalo from plus one and a half Move it up six points to plus seven and a half. I think that game's going to go down to the last possession. So I feel more comfortable taking the seven and a half points and choosing a side there. And two-team six-point teaser here as my lock. It's going to be Buffalo plus seven and a half, and Green Bay's a pick-em here. Level three lock.”
SF 13, GB 10; KC 42, BUF 36 (OT) — San Francisco beat Green Bay 13-10, so the teased Packers pick'em leg lost outright; Buffalo lost to Kansas City 42-36 in OT but covered the teased +7.5, leaving one losing leg and the teaser dead (Wikipedia, citing box scores).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Toronto Moneyline, minus 145 versus the Rangers. Lee, why is this bet a little, win a lot? Break it down for us. So this is probably the only game here of the three that's really worth watching because the other two I think are going to be blocked. So if you look ahead at the postseason, these two could possibly face off here in the conference finals in the East. And the primary reason is the New York Rangers' pretty popular pick is goaltending. The Rangers have the number one goalie in the maybe entire league, Igor Shosturkin. Shosturkin is playing as well as any goalie in the league. He's 17-6 on the season. But at home, this is where he does his best work. He's 7-1 in regulation with a 1.48 goals against average. which is the best in the NHL for starting goaltenders. And you have to wonder if the Leafs offense can be consistent like they been in the past They in the midst of a really tough road trip So I always look at scheduling Scheduling is also another component to handicapping A lot of people don't look at it as closely as I do. So you've got to look at everything. You've got to look at matchups. You've got to look at scheduling. You've got to look at injuries. But if you go back and look at where they've played so far in this trip, they've been across the continent. They had to go play Colorado. then Vegas, then lost in Arizona on national TV with only one goal. And then they had a wild game in St. Louis just the other night. So I think the Leafs are a very good team, but I don't think the schedule did them any favors here. I made this line closer to like, you know, should be pick them or maybe minus 115, 120 here for Toronto. So I think the wrong team is favored, and I think the Rangers are going to pull up the upset here at home in Madison Square Garden here. So bet a little, win a whole lot. Bet $100. For every $100 you wage, you win back $135 here. We're taking the New York Rangers money line plus $135.”
3-6 — The Rangers beat Toronto 6-3 at home, winning outright as the moneyline pick (ESPN box score, gameId 401349836).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Celtics, minus 3.5 versus the Hornets. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so we've crossed the halfway point here right now in the NBA. So now teams, it's starting to settle out who's going to be where, But there is a pack in between like six and like 11 in the Eastern Conference. And you don't want to end up seven through ten. You don't want to have to play play in games just to get into the playoffs. I mean, the new thing that the NBA started, I'm not a big fan of it, but you want to be in the top six. So we have two teams that would like to get in the top six positions. I just think Boston has more talent. They want to they're sitting right now at number 10. They need to move up here. They're at home. Both teams have won four out of five, but there's two major differences here between these two teams. Boston plays defense. Charlotte doesn't. They just try to outscore people. So we see Charlotte bottom five in defense, bottom five in rebounding, and little things in games. That's what makes a difference here. Boston's starting to play better at home here. I'm going to lay the three and a half here. I think Boston's the right side. I think they win this game by close to double digits. So we're going to lay three and a half points here in Boston in this game. Blowout special over the Charlotte Hornets.”
102-111 — Charlotte beat Boston 111-102 outright at home, so the Celtics -3.5 pick lost (ESPN box score, gameId 401360490).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Tennessee, minus 3.5 for us to Bengals. Break this one down for us. Wow. I mean, at your expense, the Cincinnati Bengals, they did something they hadn't done 31 years. They won a playoff game. That city went absolutely bonkers. They're telling people, you want to go to a bar or sports bar this weekend to watch that game, plan on getting there five to six hours early. So I wish I was a bar owner in Cincinnati. They're going to rake it in this weekend. And it's been a fun run. And I think Cincinnati's going to get better and better. Joe Burrow, just a great quarterback. They have some really nice pieces around him. Joe Mixon, they've got a great receiver in Jamar Chase. But here's the problem. They're going to go up against a Tennessee team that has a week of rest. They have extra time to game plan. They are going to realize any mistake that they've made against Cincinnati in the past. In fact, they played them the year before and lost. Went to too much single coverage. You've got to make Cincinnati earn it and slowly move the ball down the field. So teams that have played man-to-man against Chase have been burned, and that's where Tennessee has had some problems. So I think very rarely will they go in man-to-man coverage here. Also, you look at stats, and you're like, well, Cincinnati might be able to stop Henry here because they're number five in rush defense. Sometimes numbers are a little misleading. So numbers are important, and they sometimes tell you a tale of what's going on all season. But they're number five against a rush, but they faced the fifth least amount of rushes. So if they had faced somewhere in the middle of the pack amount of rushes, but like I said, it's very deceiving. Teams have thrown the ball on Cincinnati. Tennessee's got a couple of real good receivers on top of that. So I just think that there's a bad matchup here for Cincinnati. Maddie, also some injuries on the defense. You know Trey Hendrickson he went out from a concussion last week They just don have a whole lot of depth in the interior defensive line So I think Tennessee is going to be able to run the ball and also pass it once they soften up Cincinnati So three key injuries, like I said, to Cincinnati. All three guys may play, but they're not 100%. You play, if you're 70%, 75% healthy, you suit up and play this time of year. So we're going to go with a level two lock in the NFL. Tennessee Titans minus three and a half over the Cincinnati Bengals.”
16-19 — Cincinnati beat Tennessee 19-16 on a game-winning field goal in the AFC Divisional Round, so the Titans -3.5 pick lost (ESPN, gameId 401326632).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Bruins money line, minus 130 versus the Hurricanes. How are you seeing this one shakeout, Lee? Yeah, so the Carolina Hurricanes are underdogs tonight for the first time since early December when they traveled to Calgary over a month ago. This is primarily because the Boston Bruins' hottest team in the NHL right now. You mentioned that five-game winning streak, but I don't think they're even close to the same team as the Carolina Hurricanes right now. If you look at the Bruins' success over the last 10 to 15 games, it's happening because of their top line. as usual. They have really struggled to put up points this season with their bottom six forward group, and especially from their defense. So Carolina has one of the best top defensive pairs here in the NHL, and I think they're going to be able to neutralize this Boston line here, this front line here. They're starting to get healthy, and you've got to get scoring from your depth and forwards here to beat this team. And there is no playoff contender in the Eastern Conference with less forward depth than the Boston Bruins You know those names You know the Marchands They got three or four guys up front that can really skate and score But in a premier matchup of tonight's NHL slate, let's go with the Carolina Hurricanes to stay hot and end the Boston Bruins' five-game winning streak, 3-2, 4-2 here. Wrong team favorite. Carolina Hurricanes, money line, plus 115 over the Boston Bruins.”
1-7 — Carolina routed Boston 7-1, winning outright as the moneyline pick (ESPN box score, gameId 401349825).
“BetOnline.ag, line for this one, the fifth-ranked Baylor Bears, minus 6.5 versus West Virginia. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so West Virginia had started to play better. In fact, at home, on Saturday the 8th and the 11th, Tuesday the 11th, they beat Kansas State, beat Oklahoma State, and everyone's thinking, oh, okay, maybe this is a team with Huggins, maybe going to do some damage. She has a history. They play well at home. But then what happens? They play Kansas. Lose 85-59. Now, Baylor, I think they're really talented. I think they're really good, but had two horrible games. They couldn't have hit water if they fell out of a boat in their last game. They were that bad against Oklahoma State. It just happens here. So I've got two teams that really need a victory here tonight, but I just think that this Baylor team is deeper. They have done well on the road. They won 10 of 11 road games, and they can shoot the basketball. So they do a couple things really well. They shoot the basketball. They play defense. And I'm also looking at this West Virginia team here, and they just can't shoot. And they're outside top 100 in Ken Palm ratings. They're outside the top 235 in two and three-point field goal percentage. So, you know, we saw they scored 59 here against Kansas. They had another game January 1st, scored 59 against Texas. And, you know, they just have some games today. He's just throwing some clunkers. So I think Baylor here, it's all about pace. I think they're going to push the pace here. And when you push the pace here, you get more shots. It's like teams in football. And this is why it upsets me sometimes. If I'm a head coach, what I would do in college football, I want to do a hurry up. If I have the better athletes and the better players, you want to have 14, 15 possessions in a game. You don't want to slow it down and have 10 or 11. So Baylor's smart. They push the pace here, which I think they will. more possessions down the court better chances for easy you know layups and and transition points here we're going to go with Baylor here blowout special over West Virginia remember five o'clock Eastern start”
77-68 — Baylor beat West Virginia 77-68, covering the -6.5 spread (ESPN box score, gameId 401368378).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Timberwolves, minus two, versus the Knicks. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Break it down. Yeah, so, I mean, Both teams coming off some weird situations. So the Knicks, they had to play yesterday afternoon. They lose at home to Charlotte 97 And then Minnesota which had been struggling had lost back to New Orleans and also Memphis They come out and they thrash on Sunday Golden State won by 20, 119-99. So I'm watching this New York team here right now, and they just don't, they're missing some guys. They're missing Rose, you know. They're missing those guys that can put them in situations and where they're going to be successful. And we're seeing guys right now just not stepping up. Last night just couldn't score the basketball. Whereas Minnesota, Carl Anthony Towns had a huge game in their last game against Golden State. He went wild in that game, 26 points, 11 rebounds, only played 29 minutes. So they played on Sunday. Look at their point guard here, D'Angelo Russell, and averaging almost 19 points a game, only played 22 minutes and had 12 assists. So Towns, Russell, Anthony Edwards are getting contributions from the bench here. I think they're ready to go here. I think this is a great matchup here. Got a team that can score, that believes in themselves, against a New York Knicks team here that's floundering and then can't score, misses some key injuries here and some key pieces here. We're going to go with another blowout special, Minnesota Timberwolves of the New York Knicks today.”
112-110 — Minnesota beat New York 112-110, a two-point margin that pushed exactly against the -2 spread (ESPN box score, gameId 401360485).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Carolina, minus 2.5 versus the Hurricanes. You'll be in attendance. What are your thoughts on this one? Okay, so the Miami Hurricanes in basketball have not been relevant for like four years. What happened to them? Well, they got involved in that. I think it was the whole Adidas scandal where they had them on tape. You know, one of the guys that ended up turning, I think, folding against some of the teams, he was talking about the Miami program. Well, turned out there was nothing there, but it destroyed the Miami program. That year, Miami had two top recruits that were going to come to Miami. They changed their mind. They thought they were going on probation. Turned out they never went on probation. Miami didn't even have a recruiting class that year. It was like a never-ending cycle for a couple years. They had to go into the transfer portal last year. How about this? They had 13 guys on the roster. At one point, they had six of their top eight players out. In fact, I think for two or three games, they dressed seven players, and one was a walk-on. They were absolutely crippled. Did a good job this year going to the transfer portal. They had two guys that looked like we were going to go pro, McGusty and Wang, and these guys decided, I'm probably not going to get drafted. I'll come back. wise decision uh they played extremely well to start the year they started off 4-0 they were about to go 5-0 played Florida State well they already knocked off Duke I left that out on Saturday night knock off Duke and Duke uh when they were the number two team and they go to Florida State which is something crazy I think Florida State is something like maybe like 156 and like six or something like that at home over the last like eight or ten years But they up by one point with seven seconds to go after hitting a three And what happens Well they come down the court Florida State The guy goes to shoot a shot, misses a shot. They called a foul. Looked at the replay. He was never touched. Miami loses the game, but everyone's talking about them right now. They're playing at home. Looks like we're going to have a good crowd for this game. And North Carolina, off to a poor start, and all of a sudden, they're playing extremely well. So I think both teams probably deserve to be rated here somewhere between 20 and 25. But so many good teams, you know, from 15 to 25, they're not. I think the winner will be rated here and get a top 25 ranking here after this game. But I think the public is going to be on Miami here. I think it's the wrong side. They don't shoot threes well. They've shot above what they should be shooting on three-pointers going into this game. And they get out-rebounded. So the Tar Heels, they out-rebound teams by almost 10 per game here, and Miami cannot rebound. They're short. They're thin. I just think they're just going to get taken to the shed here on the glass. And bottom line here, winning games still comes down to defense and rebounding. So I'll be rooting for Miami, but the right side in this game here is North Carolina. And you look at when people break down numbers, And even though Miami's right near top 25, they're still 85th in the Ken Palm rankings and 84th in the latest net rankings. So I think they're playing just a little above their head here. So we're going to go with North Carolina here as a level one lock.”
57-85 — Miami beat North Carolina 85-57, so the Tar Heels -2.5 pick lost outright (ESPN box score, gameId 401370085).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Nevada, minus 2.5 versus Wyoming. Thoughts on this one. Break it down for us. So I'm not a big Steve Alford fan. You know, he was climbing at one point. He was at Iowa. You know, it looked like, you know, after UCLA, you know, he could still stay on top of the heap as far as one of the better coaches. But I think his style just rubbed some kins wrong. I think they've made some mistakes in recruiting here. Just think that this team is just not a good team. But Wyoming, surprisingly, might be the best team. They could end up winning the Mountain West Conference. They had a long pause. They came back. They upset Utah State over the weekend and did it with three stops three straight stops late which was huge And then what do they do They hit the game winner with a couple seconds left Balance scoring And here's the problem for the Nevada Wolfpack. They don't defend the three-point line. And Wyoming shoots threes here. Wrong team favored. Wyoming Cowboys. I mean, we're not used to talking about them as a basketball school. But Wyoming Cowboys plus the two and a half tonight over the Nevada Wolfpack.”
67-77 — Wyoming beat Nevada 77-67 outright, well clear of the +2.5 line (ESPN team schedule).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Utah minus 5.5 versus the Lake Show. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so Utah is getting back most of their players here, and so is the Lakers. I mean, there's, you know, COVID issues going on, injuries with both teams. Anthony Davis is still out. But LeBron James is playing well. I mean, he's scoring 20 to 30 points every game now. He's 5-10 rebounds. He's blocking shots. I think he's going to challenge his team here. I think he'll be ready for this game here. They need to get back to .500. I've noticed when they play teams that don't have a guy that really is good at penetration, usually a point guard. I'm talking about like Trey Young. They can't guard a guy like that. They don't have anyone on the roster defensively that can stop a guy like that. They have real trouble. But Utah doesn't have that. And I think Utah will slow the game down a little bit, maybe a little less high scoring than we've seen in some of both teams' games of late. But I think this is a game that's going to be decided by one or two possessions here. I'm taking the five points here. Wrong team favorite. I like the L.A. Lakers here, plus the five and a half. Maybe sprinkle a little money line on it also here against the Utah Jazz tonight.”
95-101 — The Lakers beat Utah 101-95 outright, covering the +5.5 line (ESPN box score, gameId 401360484).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Rams minus three and a half versus the Cardinals. Thoughts on this one? Yeah, three things that lead me to go on the underdog. And number one, if you're going to play the Rams, you've got to have a quarterback who has some escapability. And you can't just do dropbacks. You've got to move the pocket. And you've got to have a quarterback that can make some things happen. Because with Aaron Donald, that pocket collapses early and often. And it's not like the Arizona Cardinals offensive line is that great. So they have that with Kyler Murray. Number two, whenever you think the season is over, you think that the Cardinals aren't doing anything or they're on the road, they win. I mean, when they were sitting pretty, I think they were like 10-2 or 10-1 at one point, you're thinking, wow, they're, you know, something special. What do they do? They fall on their face. But they're on the road where they're 8-1 straight up and 8-1 against the spread. I don't know what it is. Maybe they bond well when they're together on the road. And sometimes in teams, you know, at home, they just show up at the hotel and they play the game. But there's something going on there. And then on top of that, the Rams will be missing their two starting safeties. So if I'm Arizona, I'm going to try to push the ball down the field. Maybe some of these broken plays, they can hit on some plays to the receivers down the field here. Also, love Connor out of the backfield. I think he's really good in space. So he might be the difference running and catching the football here. We're on team favorite. We're going for a perfect 5-0 in the NFL this weekend. I like the Arizona Cardinals plus the 3.5 over the L.A. Rams.”
34-11 — The Rams beat Arizona 34-11 in the NFC Wild Card game; the Cardinals failed to cover +3.5 (ESPN, gameId 401326625).
“BetOnline line for this one Purdue minus 20 versus Nebraska Break this one down for us Lee You know, I thought it was going to work out here. Fred Hoiberg thought, you know, with all his pedigree, you know, he played at Iowa State. His family, many family members went to Nebraska. He was actually born in Lincoln. I thought that, you know, he coached at Iowa State, led them to a bunch of success. Also, coached in the NBA, he had it all. but it's just not working out. After that quick start, they're now 6-11, 0-6 in Big Ten conference play right now. Purdue, on the other hand, 13-2. In fact, in their last game, I thought the officiating against Penn State was awful. I mean, any time they were breathing on a Penn State player, and that happens sometimes on the road, they end up calling fouls on you. But this Nebraska team, they just don't have much at all. In fact, they come and rank 159th in the latest Ken Palm rankings. They are right now, how about this, 181st in offense and 29% from three-point range. That's 326th, I think, out of 357 teams. So once you fall behind, you've got to start chucking it. They're not good at chucking it here. They don't play any defense here. They rank dead last in the Big Ten in defense. I think Purdue, after barely squeaking by Penn State, is going to want to lay the hammer down here on Friday night. I'm going to lay the 20 points here. I think they win this game by 35, 40 points here. Blowout special number one. We're going with Purdue over Nebraska on Friday night.”
92-65 — Purdue beat Nebraska 92-65, a 27-point win that covered the -20 spread (ESPN box score, gameId 401364381).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Hornets minus 10 versus the Magic. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So this Magic team might be one of the worst teams we've seen in NBA history. I mean, they're just not competitive here. So they've lost 10 straight games, most of them not even close here. Even lost on Wednesday night to Washington. Washington was missing a couple players in that game here. And Charlotte, you know, Charlotte's a little under the radar. You know, a lot of the teams in the East get a little more notice, but this is a team that's playing some good basketball. In fact, right now they are on a four-game winning streak, blitzed Detroit and scored 140 points. And one of my selections was last week, and they just blasted Milwaukee twice in a row at home. So playing some good basketball at home. Orlando Magic are like 22nd to 30th in almost every major statistical category. Injuries, they've got guys that are out galore here. I mean, Markel Futz, he's out. Michael Carter Etuan Moore I mean Jonathan Isaac the list goes on and on They been hit by COVID here Can shoot threes here Hitting just 11 threes a night here So we like Charlotte here Deep lineup. They have a bunch of guys that can score 15, 20, 25 points. So even Gordon Hayward scored over 30 points in the last game here. So he's getting it going. But blowout special number two, Charlotte Big over the less than Orlando Magic on Friday night.”
109-116 — Orlando beat Charlotte 116-109 at home, so the Hornets moneyline pick lost (ESPN box score, gameId 401360451).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Joe Anderson Brito. Money line, minus 135 versus Senor Perfecto Algeo. Break this one down for us, Lee. So we're going to go to the first fight of the main card. Starts at 7 Eastern here. UFC Fight Night, Cater and Chikaze. Joe Anderson, Brito, taking on Senior Perfecto in the 145-pound featherweight division here. Brito, slight 135 favorite, coming off of a win in Dana White's Contender Series. He's a 26-year-old fighter from Brazil who doesn't look a day under 40. A lot of times those ages don't match up with what they report them to be what they really are. But I have a feeling he's in his early to mid-30s. But he's on an 11-fight win streak, hasn't lost since 2015. Algeo right now, 1-2 in the UFC. He has not looked great in any of his fights, all three decisions. So Brito is a powerhouse who can win the fight anywhere. But I think he's going to hold a significant advantage here on the mat. I expect Brito to take Algeo early and often and grind him out here to either a unanimous decision or a possible finish over senior imperfecto Algeo. So I think that's going to be a strong play for us here, and it's going to be a level unlock.”
Bill Algeo defeated Joanderson Brito by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze, so the Brito moneyline pick lost (Wikipedia, sourced to official UFC results).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Cowboys minus three versus the Niners. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, I mean, what a history between these two teams. I actually remember actually in the early 70s, Roger Stalback led him to a big comeback at Candlestick. Yeah, there you go. Through the poll of Billy Parks, if I remember correctly, that was one of the first games I remember seeing a playoff game, early 70s, and then the catch, and then the rivalry between San Francisco and Dallas, Steve Young, Joe Montana, and Jerry Jones-led teams with some great players like Aikman and Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin from Miami. But I think this is going to be a fun game here. I think they've got two really good offenses here. Got Dallas with all these weapons here. Here's the thing I'm concerned with. I think their number one weapon is C.D. Lamb. I think they underutilize him. I think there's a guy who should be catching the ball seven, eight times a game. Seems like he only catches in big games three to four times. You're not going to win championships thrown to the tight end eight times for 75 yards here. San Francisco, what a drive they had. Down seven, needed to send it to overtime, go over 80 yards, minute and a half with no timeouts. Tebow Samuel, what a threat, catching the ball, running the ball. You know, it looked like Jimmy G, no problem with that finger injury. And then since they got back Elijah Mitchell, I mean, a different ground attack. Here's a guy last two games since he's been back over 200 rushing yards here. I think the wrong team's favorite here. I like San Francisco. I think they get the job done. I think they beat Dallas in a barn burner 34-31.”
23-17 — San Francisco beat Dallas 23-17 in the NFC Wild Card game, winning outright as the moneyline pick (ESPN, gameId 401326629).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Bucks minus two versus Golden State. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so Golden State has covered 13 of the last 16 games. Sometimes people sway their opinions too much. of what they saw in the last game. Okay, Golden State lost that game. But Bucs have some real big-time injuries and guys out. Drew Holiday, out. Grayson Allen, George Hill, they're in the league's health and safety protocol. Also, Brooke Lopez, he's out recovering from back surgery. So the Greek freak's got to pretty much do it all. He's got to set the pace and have a really good game for them to win probably cover this game. So watching the Golden State team and slowly but surely, they're integrating Klay Thompson. They, as I mentioned before, are first in the NBA in defense, holding opponents to 101.3 points per game, just 42.6% shooting from the field and 32.7% from three-point land. So on offense, they've been good, only 12, averaging almost 110 points a game, hitting almost 36% of their threes. But with Clay Thompson back, I think things are – this is a team, I think they're going to put it in high gear now, get up for this game. These are two of the favorites. In fact, you might see these two teams meet here in the finals. Golden State is now plus 450 to win it all. Milwaukee Bucks plus 700, you know, once they get everyone back. But they're just not ready for this matchup here. So I know it's at Milwaukee, but wrong team favorite here. We're going with the Golden State Warriors over the Milwaukee Bucks.”
118-99 — Milwaukee beat Golden State 118-99 outright; Golden State failed to cover as a +2 underdog (ESPN).
“bet online.ag line for this one the jets money line minus 135 versus red wings thoughts on this Yeah, so I had a real good stretch betting on the Detroit Red Wings, but I think the time has come to an end right now. They were a fun team that was motivated at the start of the season, but their goaltending and lack of experience on defense has really made them come back to earth. They've lost nine of the last 12. They've been outscored by almost 20 goals in that span. They're just not getting defensive performances they were early in the season. and add to that they're without their captain dylan larkin right now with an upper body injury then you look at their travel they just had a brutal road trip to the west coast where they lost all three games and ended their last two games in overtime heartbreaking losses so now they have to fly back to detroit for this game against a rested and angry winnipeg jets team So in the last game, Winnipeg lost 7-1 to Colorado. So they had to sit on that loss for a full week before this matchup. They're getting healthy and finally have most of their guys out of the COVID protocol, which wasn't the case in Colorado last week. So I just think a healthy Winnipeg team runs all over Detroit, especially with the direction the Red Wings are going in right now. So I'm looking at a 4-2, 5-2 final here. So blowout special, Winnipeg Jets, money line, minus 135 of the Detroit Red Wings.”
3-0 — Winnipeg shut out Detroit 3-0 on the road, winning outright as a moneyline favorite (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Bills minus four versus the Patriots. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so when these two teams played in the first game, and it was in Buffalo, there was winds gusting between 60 and 70 miles an hour. New England only threw the ball three times, and it really took away what Buffalo does best, let's throw the football. So they were one-dimensional, and New England runs the ball up there with the best of them, two really good running backs. But since that game, they played each other again. It was in New England, and Buffalo dominated that game. They also are running the football. In fact, they've run for more than 100 rushing yards each of the last five weeks. They've developed that toughness running the ball, better stopping the run here. And also, Mack Jones. We've seen a regression. Six touchdowns and five interceptions in his last four games, including an interception that was returned for a touchdown against the Dolphins. Bills actually believe people don't realize this. We talk about defense all the time, but gave up the fewest points, yards, and passing yards during the regular season of any team. So that's something that the average person would know. I've looked at the weather here. It's going to be cold. It's going to be probably single digits. I'm seeing a high of about 11. But it's not going to be more than 10-mile-an-hour winds, only up to 10 miles an hour. So that means the Buffalo should be able to throw the football. And in playoff games, it really is important to have a dual-threat quarterback a lot of times. Josh Allen, last three games, ran for 63 yards, 81 yards, and 64 yards. in that Buffalo 33-21 win over New England here. New England's not the same team that won that game in Buffalo. They've lost now three of the last four games. I think they're a little limited talent-wise. And in a game where big-time players got to make big plays, I don't think they have it. I think Buffalo has more of the star power here with Josh Allen, Stephon Diggs, wide receiver. They've got two great safeties here. I like Buffalo here. I'm going to lay the four here. level three lock Buffalo Bills minus four over the New England Patriots.”
47-17 — Buffalo beat New England 47-17 in the AFC Wild Card game, covering the -4 spread easily (ESPN).
“I do know that online.ag line is North Carolina. Wilmington is minus two versus Elon. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so Elon are the Phoenix. There you go. And North Carolina Wilmington is the Seahawks. So actually both teams play a nice brand of basketball. And most people just, you know, kind of, you know, would skip over this game. But there's sometimes in these hidden games, I like to also call them hidden gems, there's something there. So you get a team here in Charleston that has not played since December 29th due to the pause in COVID. And they have not played a tough schedule at all. In fact, this schedule is way, way down there. I think there's like 357 teams. They rank 286. They only average 66.4 points per game here. they're a team that slows it down. Then, like I said, they had that long pause for COVID. Whereas on the other hand, you look at Elon's record, you're like, wow, this team, terrible, 4-11. But according to the Ken Palm ratings, the number 17th toughest schedule in the country, They played Duke on the road, Florida, North Carolina, Arkansas, and West Virginia, and Ole Miss on neutral sites. They got two really nice guys that can score the basketball. Kid McIntosh and Burford, they rebound the basketball. The reason they lost the last game was 17 turnovers. So, you know, that might have been coming. They had not played as much either. So I think they settled themselves down here. I think we got the wrong team favorite here. We're going with the Elon Phoenix here that have played a much tougher schedule here. And also real good three-point defense, only allowing 35% from the three-point land. Wrong team favorite, Elon over North Carolina, Wilmington tonight.”
73-66 — UNC Wilmington beat Elon 73-66; Elon lost outright and did not stay within +2 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Bulls, they're minus two versus the Nets. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So the Bulls are going to play the second of the three-game homestand here of back-to-back games after they faced Detroit last night. And if you're looking at this, this is a potential matchup in the playoffs here. So these Eastern Conference Rhinals here have already met on two occasions this season. Chicago won both games, actually covered both games here. So I just think that this Brooklyn team, what they did was they ended up facing Phoenix. And Phoenix was without their top two players and just went into that game overconfident. got outscored, I believe it was by 13 points in the third period. We're not able to come back and win the game, lost 114 to 108. And Steve Nash is one of these guys. It's all about coming back the next game here. So you get a team Brooklyn that has three stars back here, Durant, Irving, and also, like I said, they're going to get one of their best guys back. and when you get all three guys back, including James Harden, who will play in this game, I think it's too many weapons here for Chicago. I think the pressure is on Chicago. I think Brooklyn will be focused here. They're 14-4 on the road straight up. You're getting points here. Level one lock here. Brooklyn Nets over Chicago Bulls tonight.”
138-112 — Brooklyn Nets beat Chicago Bulls 138-112 outright, easily covering as a +2 underdog (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line, how we're going to roll with this one. Raiders and Bengals, you're going to do 49.5 is the total. Are you going over or under the total, Lee? Okay, so you've got two teams that have not been in the playoffs in a while. I think that both teams might be a little nervous, might want to feel each other out here. And you look at what these two teams have done, and both of these teams, you know, you look at some of the scores, You're like, oh, okay, it's probably, at first glance, the total is probably close to where it should be. But let's first look at the Raiders. Scored 35, and people think, oh, okay, they're going to continue scoring. But this Chargers defense is not a good defense. Before that, they played Indianapolis, scored 23 on the road. For that, 17 versus Denver, 16 versus Cleveland, Kansas City 9, and then 15 versus Washington. So I think the score against the Chargers was an outlier. I think that Cincinnati, like I said, is going to probably want to feel this Raiders defense out at first, and they do hit on some big plays, but weather could be a factor. It's going to be cold. It looks like in the 20s, and I think the total is too high. It's at 49.5. I think this total goes way, way under. we could see something like a 24-20, 21-17 final. There you go. So under the 49.5 total, that's where we're going.”
19-26 — Cincinnati beat Las Vegas 26-19 in the AFC Wild Card game; the 45 combined points stayed under 49.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Warriors minus 2.5 versus the Grizzlies. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so a lot of people don't realize this, but the Memphis Grizzlies kind of own Golden State. Believe it or not, they're 6-4 straight up the last 10 when they played each other. They've also strung together nine straight wins. A lot of people have been paying attention to football. This Memphis team is starting to play some real good basketball. They can score. I mean, they're scoring, how about this, more than 120 points per game on average over the last 10 games. They've been hitting the boards. They can play any kind of style you want to play. Tonight will be without Steven Adams. COVID protocols, it looks like, but no problem. He kind of clogs up the middle anyway in his defensive liability versus teams that open up the floor like Golden State. And I like what I'm seeing here. Also, the matchups, it looks like there's a chance Draymond Green may not play as this is questionable. that could hinder them in this game here. So I like Golden State. I play them a lot. But believe it or not, a lot of people just don't follow this. But rebounds, number one rebounding team in the NBA, Memphis Grizzlies. They're number one or number four or five in a bunch of categories here. They also have the most steals per game, 10.2. They also, like I said, we scored. They're averaging over 112 points on the year. They're third in the NBA. Golden State sits 11th. So they can take care of the ball. They can shoot threes. Free throw percentage improving here. Wrong team favorite here. Memphis Grizzlies plus two and a half. They win outright over Golden State tonight.”
MEM 116, GS 108 — Memphis beat Golden State 116-108 outright, covering Memphis +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Chiefs minus 12-1-2 as they're hosting the Steelers. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so you know what I'm going to do this week? I'm going to roll with the playoff game selection every single day. Today, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. So you're going to get four of the six games. The reason I'm on this game, I think it's going to go up. Sitting at 12-1-2 right now. for Kansas City. I think it's going to close 13-1⁄2, 14, get it before it's 14 or even 14-1⁄2 by game time here. So I just think that Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers were very lucky to make it to the playoffs. In fact, going into Sunday, I think their chances were at like 7% or 8%. They got lucky. Indianapolis just, for some reason, lost their mojo. and huge upset by Jacksonville in that game here. So this is a game here I think where Pittsburgh's going to get exposed. Played a few weeks ago in that game. Kansas City on the same field was beating the Steelers 30-0 midway through the third quarter. The finals 36-10. Don't even let the score mislead you here. Patrick Mahomes can do anything he wants against this defense. They want to run the ball, and it looks like Edwards Clyde, Edwards Hilaire will probably be back for this game. He had a big game in the first game. Darrell Williams and Derek Gore look really good running and catching the ball to the backfield here. So I think they can run. They can pass on them here. Steelers have given up 33.4 points per game the last five on the road. They have some real limitations on defense. Bush, the middle linebacker, they're almost playing like 10 on 11 he can't make plays anymore he won't be signed i believe and uh when it comes to free agency backed by the steelers here their cornerbacks can't cover kansas city here a little special kansas city chiefs big time something like 37 to 13 over pittsburgh this will be ben's last game”
KC 42, PIT 21 — Kansas City beat Pittsburgh 42-21 in the AFC Wild Card round, a 21-point margin that covers Chiefs -12.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Maple Leafs money line, minus 125 versus the Golden Knights. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so this is probably the biggest matchup across the NHL tonight. Both of these teams have been considered cup favorites at some point over the last couple years, and both teams have blown big leads in postseason to end their chances. But I think Toronto is situated here to finally come up through this year and be the team that actually deserves respect. They're doing two things well this year that they haven't done in the past. They're not taking penalties. They've taken the fourth fewest penalties in the NHL this year. And number two, they're getting solid goaltending this year. They're winning games, you know, lower-scoring games. They used to have to win games 5-4, 6-5 in the past. Now they're second in the NHL, giving up just 2.8 goals per game here. What's impressive about this is they're improving in all areas without sacrificing elsewhere. If you look at how they've played since Thanksgiving, they've averaged 4.7 goals per game in their last 13 overall, and they've scored three or more goals in every single one of those games. So when you look at the injuries that Vegas has been dealing with right now and the goaltending issues they've had this year, I just don't think they can keep up with this Toronto team. This line might end up closing minus 140, minus 145. Get it right now. The better team is going to run away with this one. I hate to say it against your Vegas Golden Knights here. level two lock Toronto Maple Leafs money line minus 125 over the Vegas Golden Knights.”
TOR 4, VGK 3 — Toronto beat Vegas 4-3 in a shootout, winning outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Milwaukee, minus 2.5 versus the Hornets. How do you see this one shaking out, Lee? These two teams went at it the other night. And what did we see on Saturday night? Charlotte at home ends up with a win, 114-106. Now, one of the scheduling quirks, they've done this now because of COVID, more last year, but still sometimes this year. Milwaukee's staying around, and they're playing again two days later in Charlotte. So the line opened up a pick'em. It's now moved to two, two and a half everywhere. and the public's going to be on Milwaukee. Why? Better team. Figure, you know, playing again. They'll take this game. I don't think so. Normally I think it the right move but not in this case I think Charlotte sharing the ball the mellow ball Just missed a triple in that game 19 points 9 rebounds 8 assists Terry Rozier hit 28 points, Miles Bridges, 21 points, 8 rebounds. This team is really starting to play well. They also, you know, they're rebounding. I just think that you take the points here. They figured out a way to beat them, and it wasn't like they won on a last-second shot here. So I just think that they're going to take a shot here on the team playing at home, getting points. Charlotte, they will be getting two-and-a-half points here. Wrong team favorite over Milwaukee.”
CHA 103, MIL 99 — Charlotte beat Milwaukee 103-99 outright, covering Charlotte +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Ducks are minus four and a half versus the Beavers. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So I think when I'm looking at Oregon State, and I've watched them a couple times, this is a bad, bad team. They are 3-10. Whenever they've been up against decent competition, they have not been able to play. In fact, they have not played a game. How about this? Since December 30th. So it's been over a week and a half since they hit the court. I mean, this is a team that's lost to UC Davis. This is a team that lost to Princeton, got blown out by some teams by double digits. Iowa State, Penn State here. So, Oregon, I think they're a quality team, just haven't played up to their potential yet. I mean, small line here. uh beavers uh in their last win that they had against utah they had to shoot 56 percent from the field to win that game 50 percent six for 12 from three-point land here when they beat utah i think it was just an aberration here we're gonna go here with a blowout special in a rivalry game the oregon ducks over the oregon state beavers”
ORE 78, ORST 76 — Oregon beat Oregon State 78-76, a 2-point margin that falls short of Oregon -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“Georgia, minus two and a half. The betonline.ag line for this one. Georgia minus two and a half versus the Crimson Tide Thoughts on this one Lee Break it down for us Wow I mean this is a heavyweight match here I'm going to have to somehow get the energy back after last night, this weekend, all the games, but what a way to finish here the weekend. And I think the public is going to be on Alabama. Nick Saban is amazing. Bryce Young, Heisman Trophy winner, by far the better quarterback, but I think it ends there. So I've been right on last couple of weeks in my predictions in college football and the NFL. And I think I have the winner. I think George is the right side. Why do I say that? I think they're better up front. I think their linebackers are amazing as far as making tackles in the open field. I think they were overconfident in the first game. Just felt that, you know, I, I reached back and I go back to high school and college and I was part of some great teams teams that won city championships uh made it to the semifinals a couple times in high school won a uh a championship an fcs championship in college and two times one time beginning of the season lost the game fueled us for the rest of the year and we were the better team i thought and then one time meaningless game like you know we already won the district our coach decided we had a lot of injuries going to sit a lot of guys and we played a half We end up losing the game, and it fueled us to win three straight playoff games to make it to the semifinals. So I just think that Georgia will be refocused here. For some reason, they weren't focused. Alabama had everything to play for. They had to win to get into the college football playoff here. I think Georgia is going to exploit weak cornerbacks. I think the Alabama cornerbacks are weak because of graduation, because of injuries. think that this Alabama offensive line is dinged up. Two key starters are not 100% here in this game. I think Georgia, I'm not saying they're going to dominate like they dominated Michigan here, but they're going to play like they're possessed here. I'm going to lay the two and a half points here right out of the gate on Monday. Level three lock, Georgia over Alabama.”
Georgia 33, Alabama 18 — Georgia beat Alabama 33-18 in the CFP National Championship, a 15-point margin that covers Georgia -2.5 (Wikipedia, citing official game result).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Lakers minus three versus the Hawks. Break this one down for us. All right. I've been waiting for this game. And I think the Lakers are good, but this is a horrible matchup for them. The Atlanta Hawks are young. They can shoot the basketball. They are really active on defense. And except for Trey Young being questionable for the game, I think he's going to play here. I mean back soreness have you ever heard of such a crazy excuse for not playing in a game or missing a game so take a shot warm up have someone stretch you out do what you got to do I think he going to want to play in this game against the Lakers I know LeBron James has been playing well, had a few 30-plus games here, but they just can't match up. They cannot play a quick team that can shoot threes like this. So I love this Atlanta lineup. This Atlanta team is sitting right now. You talk about, we talk about catching a team before they catch fire. And they are about to absolutely, I think, catch fire. They've had injuries. They've had COVID cases probably more than any other team in the NBA. They're sitting at 17 and 20. I think they might end up being the best team in the Eastern Conference, believe it or not, if they're all healthy. So I'm going to take the three points here. Wrong team favorite, Atlanta Hawks over the Lakers. And I'm going to sprinkle it with some money line.”
LAL 134, ATL 118 — The Lakers beat Atlanta 134-118, a 16-point margin that busts Atlanta +3 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Princeton, minus 15 versus Columbia. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so I found a game here, and you see some big disparity as far as sometimes in these Ivy League teams. And we have a team here that can score in Princeton, and we're talking about score big. They have scored over 100 in a game. They routinely score in the 80s and 90s. They get up and down the floor. In fact, their starting lineup, four of the top five guys in their starting lineup have scored at least 20 points for the last six games. So they're not dependent on one guy. Columbia, 3-9. How bad are they? Their three wins are against Maine, Binghamton, and listen to this. I haven't heard of this college before, Mount St. Vincent. And some of the teams that they've lost to, bad by double digits, Fordham, Marist, Lafayette lost by 23 points, lost by 38 to Maryland-Baltimore County, lost by 28 to Colgate, even lost by double digits to Sacred Heart. So they're not true to my heart here. They have been off for a long, long time. Last game they played was December 13th. Princeton has been in action recently. Blowout special, Princeton over hapless Columbia tonight.”
Princeton 84, Columbia 69 — Princeton beat Columbia 84-69, a margin of exactly 15, pushing against Princeton -15 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The football team minus 6.5 versus the G-Men. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right. So things have gotten so bad for the G-Men that Jake Fromm from State Farm is going to start the game. We picked him up like three, three and a half weeks ago. He wasn't the third-string quarterback, so he's had to learn an offense. I think he threw for 25 yards, played three quarters and threw for 25 yards in his only start. Things got even worse. They were so desperate last week to put Saquon Barkley and had him running out of the Wildcat, and it's just not working out. They are injured. They have given up. I think Joe Judge is going to stay. So, you know, some of these coaches, bad teams, most of them are going to be gone. I think more than half these guys will not be around next year. And they have not scored above 20 points in each of the last six games here. First game, wild game. Washington scored 30 points in that game, won 30 to 29 here. And Taylor Heineke, he may not be great, but he's far better than anything the G-Men have here. I'm going to lay this six and a half. Even if it goes to seven, I think it's moving that way. We're taking the Washington football team. Blowout special number two over the G-Men.”
WAS 22, NYG 7 — Washington beat the Giants 22-7, a 15-point margin that covers Washington -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline line for this win or get in situation Chargers minus three versus the Raiders What your thoughts on this one Lee All right So talent I think you would agree with me I'm curious to see where you would put these teams. On a scale, no, there's 32 teams. Talent-wise, where would you put the Chargers from one to 32? I'd probably put them up there. They have a lot of talent. I definitely would put them up there. I'd probably put them maybe top 12, whatever, as far as talent goes. Okay, I'm thinking somewhere between 8 and 10, maybe 8 and 11. There you go. We're right on. Okay, real close. Where would you put the Raiders? I'd probably put them maybe around 20th or around talent. Wow. Around 20. Yeah, great minds think alike. So I agree with you, but it's not the talent on the field. If Anthony Lynn was coaching the Chargers, I'd be in big. We're talking about really, really big on this game. But I just think that the intangibles, you know, you've got – they're going to be doing it up big time. The crowd is going to be more charged than we've ever seen. I think even more ready to go than even the first game that they played there. There's so much on the line. Ceremonies for John Madden. Hunter Renfro is just incredible. I mean, I don't think we've ever seen a walk-on in college do more in the NFL. So I think they're controlling the line of scrimmage, and I think they can run on the Chargers. So I'm going to take the three points here, and I'm also going to sprinkle some on the money line. I like the Raiders here over the Chargers on Sunday night. It's going to be a level two lock.”
LV 35, LAC 32 — The Raiders beat the Chargers 35-32 in overtime, exactly covering Las Vegas +3 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Knicks minus two versus Celtics. Break this one down for us. Yeah, and both teams, I think, are deciding right now. Do they make runs? Are they good enough? Are they going to add a player? Are they going to be buyers, sellers, you know, when you get to the trade deadline here? So, important couple games for both teams here. And the Celtics, whenever you think, oh, you know, this is an easy play, I think the public was all over them last night at home against San Antonio. They lose the game outright by two points. Now, back-to-backer, the overnight line, it was a pick-em. Now the Knicks are two. I think the public's going to jump on the Knicks here, but the Knicks are 27th in the league in scoring offense, 15th in rebounding, 29th in assists, and that's important. Just not sharing the ball enough. Since they lost a couple key point guards, just don't have that offensive continuity. The only thing that they're in the top half of is scoring defense here. So I don't think they match up well against Boston. Like I said, whenever Boston is counted out, they play their best games. They got the two J's. And remember, another thing that we talked about all the time, people will play a certain team when a star comes back. And what did we see last night? It was the first game back, of course, for their star. And I'm talking about Jason Tatum. No, wait for the second game. I'm taking Boston plus two here. Wrong team favorite over the New York Knicks.”
NY 108, BOS 105 — The Knicks beat Boston 108-105 on a buzzer-beater; Boston lost outright by 3, missing the +2 cover (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to look at the Minnesota Wild team total here. I think this is a fantastic situational and matchup advantage here for the Minnesota Wild. I absolutely love this play. Minnesota played in the Winter Classic the other night in Minneapolis. They got chased out of their own stadium at home and lost 6-4 to St. Louis in one of the biggest games in franchise history. They got embarrassed on national television. Don't you think they're going to have a little extra motivation to come out and bounce back from this one? I think they will They had a 10 COVID break leading up to that game and laid a dud I think they going to come out flying for this one to show that they belong And then look at the matchup Everyone used to know that the Boston Bruins as this tough, physical team that rarely allowed more than two goals in a game, especially at home. But they're not the same team they were 10 years ago. Their defense group here is much smaller. They've also lost their top defensemen over the last couple years, and they don't have any tall, physical guys on the back end anymore. If you go back to 2010 or 2011, this team would rank in the top five every year in goals allowed. So now the Bruins rank 18th in goals allowed per game at home. They've given up 2.8 goals in each contest in Boston this year on average. And Minnesota has struggled a late day definitely, though. It's not because of their offense. Their scoring talent is one of the best in the league. In fact, in the last 16 games dating back to mid-November, they've scored 4.2 goals per game, and they've scored more than two goals in all but two of them. So I think you're getting a great line here on an underrated offense in an extremely important game for the Wilds. Look for them to put up three goals here fairly quickly. I'm talking probably by the end of the second period, one of those games you love here where you don't even have to watch the third period. We're going to leave the goaltending out of it here. So, blowout special, Minnesota Wilds, team total, over two and a half goals, minus 115.”
MIN 3, BOS 2 — Minnesota beat Boston 3-2, scoring 3 goals to clear the team total Over 2.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Rams minus 4.5 versus the 49ers. Thoughts on this one, Lee. Break it down for us. Yeah, so I think that the Raiders and Chargers games kind of upstaged every other game. And this is a game that's on the West Coast and not getting a lot of attention. But I think one team has a big advantage. So the 49ers are the one team that they have just given Sean Vicks a big-time trouble. So, in fact, they've won five in a row against the Rams, four and one against the spread, even beat them 31-10 on Monday night in Week 10. They ran the ball 44 times for almost 160 yards in that game. And 49ers average winning margin is 9.6 points during this five game winning streak against LA. San Francisco also six and three against the Rams When you have Kyle Shanahan against McVay And if they win this game here they beat the Rams the 49ers They've got a playoff spot. So Matthew Stafford's play concerns me of late, running into a bunch of turnovers. He's had three turnover games during the last two weeks, been picked off six times in the last three games here. And I just see the San Francisco team starting to get healthy in the matchups here. And, you know, who knows? We might see both quarterbacks play, Jimmy G and also Trey Lance. He threw for almost 250 yards in the game last week against Houston, starting to come around. He's a threat running the football here. We're going to go the level one lock. We're going to take the points here in San Francisco over the Rams on Sunday.”
SF 27, LAR 24 — San Francisco beat the LA Rams 27-24 in overtime, a 3-point margin that covers 49ers +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Warriors minus 6.5 versus the Dallas Mavs. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so the line opened up at 4.5. The public has pushed this line, I believe, to 6.5 here, and I just think it's too high. I watched Dallas last couple games. They pieced together a three-game winning streak, finally pushed above .500. Christian Porzingis is not going to play in this game, but they have a guy that's filling in in the starting lineup that I like a lot. His name is Dwight Powell. 6'10", goes about .240 from Stanford. Been in the league, I think it's like his seventh or eighth year. The kid just plays hard. I like what he brings to the floor. And this is going to be a wide-open game. And finally, Luka's back. He's been back for a couple games now. He looks good. So is Tim Hardaway Jr. I mean, you know what guy that's really playing well? Also, Jalen Brunson. So I think that Dallas, for one game at home, can match the firepower. I think this is a game that's going to go right down to the wire here. I like Dallas. I'm taking the six-and-a-half points here. wrong team favorite. I think they might pull the upset here with Golden State, maybe sprinkle a little on the money line here also.”
DAL 99, GS 82 — Dallas beat Golden State 99-82 outright, a 17-point margin that easily covers Dallas +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Minnesota minus three versus the Bears. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so what they're basically telling you with Minnesota's favorite by three is if they're playing on the neutral field, it's be a pick-em ball game. Well, it's minus three right now. It could actually move to close to a pick-em if we find out that Kirk Cousins doesn't play. And there is a chance he doesn't play. If he doesn't play and they have to go again with Sean Mannion, I mean, you saw him. Talk about a game manager. Right. That's written all over it for him. Just not a player. Andy Dalton's actually looked pretty good. I think he's probably going to start, if not, Justin Fields. And, I mean, Chicago's looking to put Minnesota, pin a loss on them because they lost earlier in the season. Again, they probably should have won against them. And if they do, they end up with identical records. So at least they're playing hard. Their defense is playing hard. They lost in that first game 17-9 at Soldier Field. I love playing teams that lost the first game at home. They go on the road. They're getting points. They held cousins in that game to 87 yards passing here. So just think that, you know, with Allen Robinson back, a bunch of young playmakers, and Darnell Moody, Cole Komet at tight end, these guys are starting to emerge here. I think it's the right play, the right time here. We're going to go with that level one lock, Chicago Bears plus the three over the Minnesota Vikings”
MIN 31, CHI 17 — Minnesota beat Chicago 31-17, a 14-point margin that busts Chicago +3 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Dallas minus 7.5 versus the Eagles. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So here's what's crazy. Both teams are in the playoffs. Dallas, obviously, you know, they're going to be having to play the first weekend now. They have no chance of getting those number one or number two seeds. So they could actually be playing each other the first weekend of the playoffs. So that being the case, do you think either team's going to show much? No. Who has more motivation? Philadelphia. They were waxed. I mean, the score was 41-21, but Dallas could have won that game by 40 or 50 points. It wasn't even close. But Philadelphia's a different team now. They've won four straight games. Let's say both teams play their starters for a half. That's what I'm going to guess that you're going to see happen. So Dak Prescott hasn't looked great the last four or five games. He had one game where he looked good. You have Philadelphia. They've looked amazing. If they play a backup, Gardner Minshew is better than anything that Dallas has as a backup quarterback. And I just don't like the play calling for Dallas. I mean, I think C.D. Lamb is a top five, top six, top seven receiver in the NFL. Not using him enough. So I'm going to take Philadelphia here in the seven and a half points. I think this line is going to go down. I think this line is going to close like maybe six points. So I'm going to take advantage. Philadelphia Eagles plus the seven and a half points.”
DAL 51, PHI 26 — Cowboys beat the Eagles 51-26; Philadelphia lost outright by 25, well short of covering +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Auburn minus 9.5 versus South Carolina. Thoughts on this one, Lee. Break it down for us. So if you look at the rankings and if you look at numbers, you're like, Auburn can score. They play defense. They've got a center averaging over 4.5 blocks per game. Probably easy. Well, yeah, they've got some nice pieces here. And Walker, Kessler, the center is nice. I mean, how this guy was only playing like eight minutes per game last year for North Carolina doesn't make sense. A 7-1 transfer from North Carolina, averaging 10 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 blocks per game. But they're going on the road now. And what does that mean? Hey, they've gone on the road this year and, hey, they've won, but hasn't been easy. In fact, last game they played on the road went to St. Louis. Only won 74-70. I mean, this was a game that went right down to the end. So you talk about guys that can coach as an underdog, Frank Martin, the coach for South Carolina, I know him well. You used to see him when he started coaching here in Miami, at Miami High, in what they call the old band box. It's a gym that was built like I think in the 20s or 30s. And sometimes they just turn the air off. I mean, you talk about a hot gym. you talk about a gym that was right on I mean the seats are literally almost right on the court one of the loudest places so he'll do anything he'll do whatever he has to do he is not a great coach to back to the favorite but it a dog here getting a lot of points just his mentality I mean he is intensity So I like what he has with this lineup We got some guys that can play here And, you know, that's what it's all about. It's mentality. And take nothing away from Bruce Pearl and his lineup here. Like I said, all the rankings look great. They average 80 points per game. But this is a conference game. South Carolina has Devin Carter, and you love this name, Chico Carter Jr. They were both hot last game, averaged 22, 20 points in their win over Army, where they won by 30 points here. They forced 17 turnovers in that game. It's going to be crazy in Columbia tonight here. I'm taking the points here. South Carolina, right team favored against the Auburn Tigers.”
Auburn 81, South Carolina 66 — Auburn beat South Carolina 81-66, a 15-point margin that exceeds South Carolina's +9.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. K-State minus 7. That's the BetOnline.ag line. but then also the total is 47.5. Lee, break this down. How is this a double lock? Okay, so this line started as LSU is a 2.5-point favorite. If you like Kansas State, the ship has sailed. I mean, it's minus 7. Some places I even see it's 7.5. If you get a bad line, just don't bet it. So here's the situation. Kansas State and LSU pace of play. Both teams slow. Kansas State, bottom five as far as they just walk up to the line, they stand at the line, and they'll usually use almost every single second. They'll sometimes audible once or twice a play, and they want to have 55, 60, 65 plays. They're not running 90, 100 plays. They know that their talent against an SEC team is not going to win in the long run. So that's their style. They want to get in the right play. and because of that slow LSU they're also bottom 20 pace of play so you have two teams play it really slow usually college games you see totals in the 50s and 60s it 47 and a half for a reason look at the Kansas State defense What have they done here Well let just look at the last five games Held TCU 12 points Kansas 10 points West Virginia, 17. Baylor, 20. And Texas, 22. So they don't make mistakes. They don't get beat deep. They want to make teams go down the field, take away the big play. Then you look at LSU. LSU is one of these teams that, hey, yeah, they have lost a lot of guys because of opt-outs, but look at the last four games. They held Alabama to 20 points. They held Arkansas to 16, Monroe to 14, and Texas A&M to 24 in a 27-24 win. So these are two teams that still play good defense. I know Skyler Thompson looks like probably going to start for Kansas State. He missed the last two games, but like I said, the pace of play here, you're not blowing out an LSU SEC team here so Kansas State is better as an underdog here we're going to take LSU as a level 2 lock and we're going to take the under 47 and a half as a level 3 lock”
Kansas State 42, LSU 20 — Kansas State beat LSU 42-20 in the Texas Bowl, a 22-point margin that busts LSU +7 (Wikipedia, citing official box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. K-State minus 7. That's the BetOnline.ag line. but then also the total is 47.5. Lee, break this down. How is this a double lock? Okay, so this line started as LSU is a 2.5-point favorite. If you like Kansas State, the ship has sailed. I mean, it's minus 7. Some places I even see it's 7.5. If you get a bad line, just don't bet it. So here's the situation. Kansas State and LSU pace of play. Both teams slow. Kansas State, bottom five as far as they just walk up to the line, they stand at the line, and they'll usually use almost every single second. They'll sometimes audible once or twice a play, and they want to have 55, 60, 65 plays. They're not running 90, 100 plays. They know that their talent against an SEC team is not going to win in the long run. So that's their style. They want to get in the right play. and because of that slow LSU they're also bottom 20 pace of play so you have two teams play it really slow usually college games you see totals in the 50s and 60s it 47 and a half for a reason look at the Kansas State defense What have they done here Well let just look at the last five games Held TCU 12 points Kansas 10 points West Virginia, 17. Baylor, 20. And Texas, 22. So they don't make mistakes. They don't get beat deep. They want to make teams go down the field, take away the big play. Then you look at LSU. LSU is one of these teams that, hey, yeah, they have lost a lot of guys because of opt-outs, but look at the last four games. They held Alabama to 20 points. They held Arkansas to 16, Monroe to 14, and Texas A&M to 24 in a 27-24 win. So these are two teams that still play good defense. I know Skyler Thompson looks like probably going to start for Kansas State. He missed the last two games, but like I said, the pace of play here, you're not blowing out an LSU SEC team here so Kansas State is better as an underdog here we're going to take LSU as a level 2 lock and we're going to take the under 47 and a half as a level 3 lock”
Kansas State 42, LSU 20 — Kansas State beat LSU 42-20 in the Texas Bowl; the combined 62 points clears the Under 47.5 total, so the under loses (Wikipedia, citing official box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Purdue minus 12.5 versus Wisconsin. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, these are two teams historically. Last decade have been really good in the Big Ten. You have Wisconsin went 18-13 last year. They knocked off North Carolina in the first round. They did fall to eventual national champion Baylor 76-63. And if you look at where they are as far as statistically, offensively, and defensively, they're ranked 40th overall. They're 53rd in offense. They're 40th in defense. So you're saying, oh, okay, pretty sound. Then you look at Purdue, 18-10 last year. They went to the NCAA tournament as the number four seed. They got upset in the first round, 78-69 by North Texas. that was, I thought, the shocker in the first round last year. Expectations really high for Purdue this year. They're second behind Gonzaga with plus 800 odds to win the national championship, which is tied with Duke for second. Since losing their only game to Rutgers, 70-68, all the way back December 9th, they've won four straight games. if you look at the Ken Palm ratings defensively not great 60th it's because their offense is scary good so they're number one in offense they light it up they have four guys that average double digits Jaden Ivey leads the way at 16.7 so any one of these four guys can have an off night and the other three guys can pick it up and they have one of the best centers in college basketball so I just think that this is a Purdue team that is loaded here when the Badgers fall behind this is where they're going to have problems they're rated out of I think it's 357 teams this year Division I 316th in shooting only 40.4 percent from the field 299th in shooting three-pointers at just 30.4%. And Purdue also seems to own Wisconsin. 7-1-1 against the spread the last nine head-to-head games here. Blowout special here to start the year here. Purdue over Wisconsin, big in college basketball.”
Wisconsin 74, Purdue 69 — Wisconsin beat Purdue 74-69; Purdue (-12.5) lost outright (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Warriors minus 8.5 versus the Heat. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so a lot of people had marked this game down because they thought this was going to be the return of Clay Thompson from his Achilles injury. but it looks like they're going to wait another game or two. And Miami, playing really well. I mean, Miami's a team that, you know, has been ravaged by COVID, by injuries, 23 and 14. They sit right now in the Eastern Conference at fourth. Pretty good spot here. But they had to play yesterday on the road and played Sacramento. So it's a back-to-backer. They only have, I think, like nine or ten guys that they're dressing. Only two of the original starters are there, including Jimmy Butler. A couple games ago, he had to score, I think, 37 points for them to beat Houston. Last night, they ended up losing by two at Sacramento. One of those taxing games here. Starters played extended minutes here, and now they're going to play Golden State. Golden State's coming off a couple games ago. They lost. And I just think that they're going to be ready to go here. Both teams, if you look at the statistics, you're thinking, wow, I mean, this game should be fairly close here. But just think that Golden State's offense is going to be way too much. The Heat without Duncan Robinson, without Dwayne Dedman, without Bam Adebayo, without Victor Aladipo, without Markeith Morris, without Max Cruz. I mean, the list goes on and on. They're 17th in offense here, third in defense, but they're not built to play this team here. They always seem to have trouble with Golden State here. Blowout number two here, Golden State, lady eight and a half, big over the Miami Heat.”
GS 115, MIA 108 — Warriors beat Heat 115-108; Golden State (-8.5) won by only 7, missing the cover (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Steelers are minus two versus the Browns. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, and, okay, there's a couple storylines here. Pittsburgh, if they win this game and win next week, and Indianapolis loses, they're in the playoffs. It's not going to happen. Right, right. It's not going to happen. So we've seen this happen too many times. The public will say, oh, this is Big Ben's last home game. They're like, oh, he's going to play superhuman. I just don't see it. So this is a team that's ravaged all of a sudden by COVID injuries. What have they done well? They've done anything well running, passing? No. Not really. They're not up there in any category. But Cleveland at least does two things well. They stop the run on occasion. They can rush the passer, and they do one thing maybe better than any team in the NFL. They run the football. So I think you're going to see a Cleveland team that, even though they're out of the playoffs, is going to come to play. Baker Mayfield off four interceptions, and they still almost won the game. The last one should have been a pass interference call. Should have kept the drive alive that the officials missed. So I just think that this Cleveland team is going to come to play. It's a rivalry game here. The public is going to be clearly behind Ben Roethlisberger. This line opened as Cleveland is a three-and-a-half-point favorite. Now, Pittsburgh is a two-point favorite just because Cleveland's out of the playoffs. A five-and-a-half-point swing. I don't buy it here. I think they're going to run the football here. They have, I think, one of the best running backs in the league in Nick Chubb. Already almost 1,150 yards here. They've got receivers that are playing at a high level, Jarvis Landry, tight end Austin Hooper. So, Charlotte Higgins, these guys I think are going to do enough against the Pittsburgh team that I just don't think they should have realistically. This should be a team that's sitting here with like a 4-5 win team, not 7-7-1 here. So, we're going to go with a level one lock here. Cleveland Browns plus the two points. They win the game outright tonight against the Pittsburgh Steelers and ruin Ben Roethlisberger's last home game.”
PIT 26, CLE 14 — Steelers beat Browns 26-14; Cleveland (+2) lost outright by 12 (ESPN box score).
“bet online.ag line for this one portland plus five and a half versus the lakers break this What down for us, Lee? Well, neither team has been very excited, certainly not the Lake Show this year. They've lost six of the last seven. LeBron James had to have maybe his best game of the year last game for them to pull out a win. He ends up scoring 37 points, has a game-high 13 rebounds and seven assists, and to go along with that two blocks and two steals just for them to finally win a game. Now he's going to be without Russell Westbrook. He's not playing tonight. Anthony Davis, as we know, is out. They're going to have to play Portland, and Portland's been awful. Stinkola, 10 out of 12. They've lost. But five and a half points? I mean, really? You know the crowd's not going to be energized really tonight. I mean, this is New Year's. The game starts at 1040 Eastern. Their minds are going to be somewhere else. I don't think it's going to be close to full here. I think this is a game that's going to come down to probably one possession. Just like I told you in the last couple NBA games, let's not only play the game, let's sprinkle some money line on Portland here. Wrong team favored. Portland Trailblazers plus five and a half over the L.A. Lakers.”
LAL 139, POR 106 — Lakers beat Trail Blazers 139-106; Portland (+5.5) lost by 33, well outside the number (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag live for this one. The Titans minus three and a half versus Miami. Break this one down for us, Lee. Hey, I'd love for the Dolphins to win out and make the playoffs. And that's what will happen if they win the last two games. I just think it's highly unlikely. And here's the problem. They're playing on the short week. So they have like a day and a half less to prepare for this game. They got to go on the road. It's not like they're playing at home. They were on the road in New Orleans. Now they're going to go back on the road. play at Tennessee and play Ryan Tannehill, former Miami Dolphins quarterback. And they're motivated. They want to secure at least that number two seed. And if they win out and Kansas City loses one of the two games, they're going to be the number one seed because they beat Kansas City head to head. So the Dolphins, give them credit. You know, they won seven straight, covered six out of seven. But let's not just look at the names of the teams they beat. The names of the teams they beat is not impressive at all. But let's look at the quarterbacks. They beat Tyrod Taylor. They beat Lamar Jackson when he clearly was injured and maybe 70, 75% on a short week when Baltimore is playing on the road on Thursday night. They played Joe Flacco. He should have been out of the league three or four years ago. And then Carolina when they played PJ Walker and Cam Newton those two guys not players Mike Glennon at best an average backup Zach Wilson and Ian Book a four quarterback for the New Orleans Saints So, like I said, give the Dolphins credit. Winning seven straight after losing. I mean, it looked like the season was over at one and seven. But they're just going to face a really tough defensive line for Tennessee. and bottom line here is Dolphins offensive line is horrible and you don't see teams make playoffs with that big a deficiency here so we're going to take the Tennessee Titans hate to say it sometimes you got to go against your hometown team Tennessee minus three and a half here blowout special over the Miami Dolphins”
TEN 34, MIA 3 — Titans beat Dolphins 34-3 on January 2, 2022; Tennessee (-3.5) covered by 27.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Georgia minus seven and a half versus the Wolverines. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so here's what's great about bowls. You have a long time to study teams, and sometimes, and in this case, I was on one side for about almost two weeks. And then I kept studying tape and I'm like, I was on the wrong side. So originally I was on Michigan, you know, just riding that wave. And I actually played Michigan the last two times against Ohio State, big against Iowa. Just felt they had the good matchups. I thought their coordinators really came around and called great games. Their team played extremely well. but they are going to play a team that does what they do just does it better Georgia runs the ball better They stop the run better I just think they weren motivated I think for some reason they just went into that Alabama game like it was just any other game, like they're playing Missouri or South Carolina, and Alabama was motivated, and they laid the hammer down. I think they're going to come out fired up here, think that their defense is going to set the tone here. They have the better special teams also, in my opinion, here. And also Michigan, a lot of people don't realize something must be going on with Daxon Hill. Daxon Hill is top Michigan cornerback. Listed as questionable. He was not with the team. He was, for some reason, left back. He might be showing up today. Kind of been a little mystery, something going on. In fact, Jim Harbaugh said that he remains questionable yesterday. He's working through something right now. So didn't know whether he was going to be able to play here. So like I said, I think that Georgia might be close for a while, for a half. I just don't see Michigan scoring more than 14 points in this game here. So we're going to go with a level three lock to end the year. Georgia Bulldogs minus the seven and a half over Michigan.”
Georgia 34, Michigan 11 — Georgia beat Michigan 34-11 in the Orange Bowl CFP semifinal; Georgia (-7.5) covered by 15.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Nets are minus five versus 76ers. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so the Nets have beaten the Sixers in both regular season games. They've beaten them by scoring 114 points in both regular season games. Now, the third game of the series, and these are bitter rivals. I mean, they're separated by less than an hour's drive. And what's going to happen here? I think the public is going to be all over Brooklyn. See, they've won the first two games. They're going to see that Kevin Durant scored 29 and 34 points in the first two games. They're going to see James Harden is back, and they're going to think, hey, they'll just roll. They're at home. Well, Tobias Harris came out and said, we need to find ways to make sure that Kevin Durant doesn't burn us again. He's sick and tired of it. And he said he's getting the spots and we need to find ways to get him off his favorite shooting spots on the floor. And on top of that, so Tobias Harris is going to be guarding most of the game. Tobias Harris in the first game went three for 17. 17. Tobias Harris may not be on Kevin Durant's, you know, level play, but I think he's fired up for this game. You can just tell just by listening to the interview that this is a huge game for them here. I'm taking the five points here. I think the wrong team is favored. I like Philadelphia plus the five. I'm going to play them plus the points and even sprinkle some money line here on that game.”
PHI 110, BKN 102 — 76ers beat Nets 110-102 outright; Philadelphia (+5) covered easily (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag. Line for this one. Wisconsin minus 6.5 versus Arizona State. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, what's really good about when you see bowl games, you know, sometimes there's a mismatch. And last yesterday's game against Virginia Tech, I went against Virginia Tech to missing the starting two quarterbacks, like five other starters. Most of the entire teams are coming back for this game here. So we can study what happened during the season here. What happened during the season is Arizona State didn't play many running teams. And you look at their numbers, you're like, wow, they're number 33 against the run. but they're going to play a team that can run the football and the two teams that can run the football this year, they had trouble with Utah and Oregon state, Wisconsin runs like there's only maybe, maybe eight to 10 teams that can run like they can. And Arizona state plays that three three five defenses which is actually better against stopping the past So I think Wisconsin is to run the ball I think Arizona State another Pac team went against Oregon last night in our podcast play and they gave up. It could have been 55, 60 points if Oklahoma would have been more aggressive in the last couple minutes of the game. But just think that this Wisconsin defense is also really strong. 33 sacks this year, 15 interceptions. seven fumble recoveries here. I like Wisconsin here laying the six and a half.”
Wisconsin 20, Arizona State 13 — Wisconsin beat Arizona State 20-13 in the Las Vegas Bowl; Wisconsin (-6.5) covered by 7 (ESPN box score).
“bet online.ag line for this one the flames money line minus 145 versus kraken break this one down for us lee all right so i went against to Seattle Kraken last night and we won. They had to play an overtime game So they gonna play now The Calgary Flames are gonna have to go back to back days And the Calgary Flames organization was the root a lot of people don realize this of the COVID pause that happened in the NHL over the last week At one point, they had only four active players on the roster because the remaining 19 guys were on COVID protocols. So today, they don't have a single player in the protocols. They're virtually the only team in hockey that doesn't have a COVID case. preventing a player from playing here. And when this roster is healthy, it is very good. In fact, it's good enough to go 11-4-2 on the road so far this year and be on pace for first in the Pacific Division. Jacob Markstrom is back in the net for Calgary 2, which creates probably the biggest mismatch in goaltending among all seven games tonight. In just 21 appearances this season, he already has five shutouts. with Seattle on back-to-back games here, with Calgary getting plenty of rest for their guys to come out of the COVID protocol. I made this line like minus 180, minus 190. I think the Flames continue to limit scoring chances and keep winning on the road for one final here, I'm predicting, for the Calgary Flames here. Calgary Flames, money line, minus 145, level two lock.”
CGY 6, SEA 4 — Flames beat Kraken 6-4; Calgary's moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Flyers plus 118 versus the Kraken. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, there were a couple teams that needed the six-day COVID break in the NHL really bad. and the Flyers were one of them. So they were decimated by protocols heading into the break. And on top of that, they just couldn't get anything going in the first 30 games of the season. Their power play ranked just 26th in the league. They couldn't score goals really in any situations. They had a ton of injuries to the most important players. And they had to even fire their coach after 23 games. But this was supposed to be a strong playoff contender with guys who can score up and down the lineup with a defensive group that was supposed to be much improved from the year before. They know where they should be compared to where they are now. So they're right in the middle of the pack. They finally started to turn things around just before the break. They won four or five, scoring at least four goals in that span. And they had some extra time over the break to build the chemistry, I believe. And I think that's a strong advantage against a team like Seattle that's gone through these COVID issues and really has not had much happen until just recently. So they have been ridden with positive COVID tests right now over the last week. Seattle has six guys in protocol right now. Five of these guys are defensemen who play in the regular lineup. So in front of a goaltender, or goaltenders should I say, that have been bad. The Krakens' defense has been horrible. You don't want to leave goaltenders who are not playing well behind minor league guys on the back end. I think Philadelphia picks up right where they left off and takes this one on the road here. Wrong team favored. Philadelphia Flyers money line plus 118.”
PHI 3, SEA 2 (OT) — Flyers beat Kraken 3-2 in overtime; Philadelphia's moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Knicks minus 6 at the Pistons. Thoughts on this one? Break it down for us, Lee. So the Pistons lost their last game 144 to 109. And we talked about the last couple of days going against teams that just don't have their lineup. And we're talking about they have five guys that they're playing as substitutes that have been with the team less than five games. So they're starting. Derek Walton Jr., first game. They're like, okay, you're going in and starting. So they're starting. Guys are just – I mean, it's a bad lineup. And then with zero reserves, they're starting guys with scoring the most points. is Sadiq Bey averaging something like 14 points a game. They're going to face a Knicks team, and the reason it's not double digits is they played last night, but the Knicks have reserved. Four of their five guys that came off the bench in the last game scored at least eight points or more, so they can go deep. Kemba Walker, I like the way he's running the offense now. Everyone's contributing, so R.J. Barrett's back, and boy did he have a big game in his last game, so almost had a triple-double. uh pistons they're making everyone look good on offense i mean absolutely no defense on offense second to last barely hitting 100 points per game 100.7 points per game here we're only laying six points here are you kidding me blowout special new york knicks minus the six over the detroit pistons”
NY 94, DET 85 — Knicks beat Pistons 94-85; New York (-6) covered by 9 (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.ag line for this one, Oklahoma minus six and a half versus Oregon in the Alamo Bowl. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Well, the Oregon Ducks are reeling right now. They've lost back-to-back games to Utah, and the closer one was 38-10 in the Pac-12 championship game. Anthony Brown is not the answer. Already had Bo Nix. He's already said, I'm transferring to Oregon. I think I'm better than Anthony Brown. If Bo Nix thinks he's coming in and starting, and he's going to make him that much better, You've got to be concerned. So Anthony Brown, not the answer there. Everyone talks about Travis Guy. Nothing special. I mean, when the Ducks were rolling 4, 5, 6, 10 years ago, they had running backs galore. They had receivers galore. I'm just not seeing it here. So they were outgained in that game 361 to 221. And let me tell you something. Utah, it could have been worse if they wanted to pile it on late in that game. So now they're without their coach. we took Mario Cristobal and I'm talking about my Miami Hurricanes Dan Lanning was named the new coach here Joe Moorhead he's going to coach his game Joe Moorhead, the offensive coordinator who did nothing the last two games looked like he didn't even prepare he's going to be the coach at Akron I mean, talk about a bad move talk about a dead-end move so they're going to be without their star player Thibodeau, defensive end who could go one or two in the draft year Oklahoma played better competition. Yeah, I wanted – I was upset I didn't get that game in last night. I love going against UCLA. Love those West Coast soft teams here. I think Oregon is soft. I'm going to take Oklahoma. I think they roll here tonight here. Level two lock. Oklahoma laying the six and a half over Oregon.”
Oklahoma 47, Oregon 32 — Oklahoma beat Oregon 47-32 in the Alamo Bowl; Oklahoma (-6.5) covered by 15 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Knicks, minus 4.5 versus the T-Wolves. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So the public is going to look at this game and say, well, Minnesota's playing really well. And they're going to say, wow, the Knicks aren't playing so well. Why are they favored by so much? and you just have to look sometimes at the lineups. For instance, last night, I played an NBA game and most people just probably just glossed over it. Atlanta Hawks were playing at home and they were getting a ton of points and people thought, oh, well, you know, they can keep this game close. They didn't have a lineup, didn't have players. You got to have players to win games. I mean, once in a while, one out of eight, Every 10 games, you'll have a game where, you know, a team comes out of nowhere. But let's look at this Minnesota roster. So last night, their starting roster was Josh Okogie, Jaden McDaniels, Nathan Knight, Malik Beasley, and Jordan McLaughlin. And coming off the bench was Jake Lehman, Jalen Noel, Chris Silva, who they picked up from the D-League played, and Greg Monroe. I don't think he's played in a couple of years. So Greg Monroe had 11 points and nine rebounds. It's not going to happen again on a back-to-back night. So I just think that the Knicks are starting to put it all together. They really haven't been affected by COVID. And you know what? Hey, I feel bad for the fans. You want to watch two really good teams out there, but you got to take advantage of a team that's stripped down because of losses to COVID. We're going to lay the four and a half points here with the Knicks here. blowout special New York Knicks over the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight”
NY 96, MIN 88 — Knicks beat Timberwolves 96-88; New York (-4.5) covered by 8 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Mississippi State, minus 9.5 versus Texas Tech. Lee, what are your thoughts on this one? Okay, so if you look at the schedule and the records, you're like, oh, okay. This should be like a four- to seven-point line here from Mississippi State. They come from a better conference, play a little bit better competition, better quarterback, and you'll lay the four- to seven. Why is the line nine and a half? Well, Mike Leach, he's coached at Texas Tech. Even though he lost a court case, still believes that he's owed money. So you don't think he wants to pour it on here? you picked the wrong coach. He takes things personal. And he has a quarterback in Will Rogers who is incredible. I mean, down the stretch, it seems like he's throwing for 400 yards or plus every single game. So the kid is unflappable. I saw him play against Alabama. And we're talking about take some shots and never went out of the game and kept them in the game So I just think that you got a team with a great quarterback here You got a team with better pedigree playing in the sec got a team in Texas tech lost their coach And who are they going to play with? Sonny Cumbie. He's already going to be the coach of Louisiana tech. I mean, he he's the head coach and he stayed around. So, uh, I don't, I don't think, uh, since Matt Wells got fired, things are looking good for this team here. They have a quarterback that played great in his last game for Texas Tech. I just don't see Donovan Smith. He's so up and down. This is a guy, I've seen him sometimes through six, seven passes, not even close. I know he threw for 262. He kept him in the game against Baylor. I don't see it two games in a row here. I think we're going to see Mississippi State laying the nine and a half. Blowout special number two over Texas Tech.”
Texas Tech 34, Mississippi State 7 — Texas Tech beat Mississippi State 34-7 in the Liberty Bowl; Mississippi State (-9.5) lost outright (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. NC State minus two versus the UCLA Bruins. Thoughts on this one. Break it down for us, Lee. All right, so we've seen a bunch of games where UCLA starts off strong, and they're leading. Utah, I think they were up either – I think they were up 14 points at halftime. And then the collapse. No defense. West Coast soft. I hate to say that and put them in that category. But, hey, they've got some dynamic players on offense, but the defense just doesn't seem to get it done. People think of the Wolfpack as this team that's not explosive. Not the case. Quarterback Devin Leary is really good. He totaled almost 3,500 yards passing, 35 touchdowns, just five interceptions, has two running backs that are big strong and fast here in Zevion Knight and also Ricky Pearson Jr Both of them rushed for almost 700 yards or more And like I said, that defense for UCLA, allowing almost 400 yards per game, just collapsed in the second half here. I don't think the focus is going to be here. And then on top of that, you look at a team here, UCLA, they did struggle against tougher competition. So they have a three-game winning streak, but really have not beaten anyone this year. I'm going to lay the two here. Level two lock, NC State over UCLA.”
The 2021 Holiday Bowl was canceled hours before kickoff on Dec 28, 2021 after UCLA withdrew due to COVID-19 protocol issues within the program, and the NCAA ruled it a no contest (Wikipedia).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Spurs plus 7 versus the Jazz. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so the storylines here, people are going to say, oh, well, top two players for each team are out. Murray's out for San Antonio, Mitchell's out for Utah. But the story is San Antonio, I believe, is coming together. So not a winning record, but they're 19 and 13 against the spread. So just think that they also score. The over is 17, 13, and 1 in their game so far this year. Ranked fifth in the NBA, scoring over 110 points a game, hitting over 52% from the field and 35% from three-point land. I watch Utah early and often. I have a place, you know, out in Park City. I go to their games, watch them. They're my favorite team out in the West. But without Mitchell, they struggle to score. I mean, he is a guy missing 25 points. Other teams have leading scores that are 18, 20. But I'm just watching right now this San Antonio team. And Greg Popovich is really putting these young kids together. I ride Utah when they're on rolls here. but this is not a time to back Utah here. Wrong team favorite here. I'm picking San Antonio plus the points. I'm going to play him plus the points and even sprinkle a little money line because Utah is taking games right down to the wire. I think this is a great wrong team favorite.”
UTA 110, SA 104 — Jazz beat Spurs 110-104; Spurs (+7) lost by 6, covering the spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Suns minus 8.5 versus the Grizzlies. Thoughts on this one Lee All right so the Suns might have one of the worst names for their basketball arena Do you know their name of the arena I do not The Footprint Center Oh, yeah, that's got to be – how new is that? That's got to be a new name. I just realized it. I just realized it this year. So Suns here, after losing to Golden State, they're going to be angry here. So just had no answer for Steph Curry. uh Devin Booker only 13 points in that game here uh Suns took only their third loss of the season uh this Grizzlies team right now just not coming together and I think they're going to need some second chance points to win this game and I just think DeAndre Ayton is going to control Steven Adams back when they play each other seems to dominate here so Booker is averaging almost 23 points a game here. Like I said, this Memphis team just not coming together here. I just think it's going to take a while. And I think this is a great time where they bounce back here. They're real angry for getting, well, it wasn't a blowout, but lost by, I think, like eight, nine, 10 points. Just couldn't cut it in the end here. I like Phoenix here. Blowout special over Memphis on Monday night.”
MEM 114, PHX 113 — Grizzlies beat Suns 114-113; Suns (-8.5) won by only 1, missing the cover (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Miami minus three versus Saints. Give it to us, Lee. Break it down for us. Yeah, and I didn't really have a strong feel on this game. When the line came out last week, I'm looking at the game like, oh, this is going to be a tough game. New Orleans is laying three points at home against Miami. You know, I thought maybe, you know, one team wins by three points. And then the COVID protocols came out, and they started adding guys. New Orleans, it seemed like, by the day. They're up to now, including practice players, 20 players. And we seen some teams come together but they not down to the first quarterback They already lost him He went out with a knee injury Then they lose their next two quarterbacks They going to play Ian Book He has never taken a snap in the NFL So they could be without both of their right and left tackles here. Obviously the most important lineman you want playing for you. And they're playing an unfamiliar team. So if they were playing like Tampa, they know them inside and out. Even the backups know their responsibilities. possibilities but they're playing a team they're not used to not saying that Miami's offense is great but it's just different and Miami's defense although not as good as New Orleans they're healthy they got a lot of thieves and the defensive secondary here so I'm going to take Miami I'm not going to take the three points it's going to be one of the rare times I tell you to buy down the line we buy a half a point when we feel it's going to be a low scoring game and it's a three-point line. That's the only time I buy points in the NFL. Don't buy points in college football. Too many scored, especially in these bowl games. So we're going to take Miami, buy it down from three to two and a half. Yep, it's minus 130 if they lose, but I think it's worth the bet here. So level two lock Miami Dolphins on Monday night over New Orleans.”
MIA 20, NO 3 — Dolphins beat Saints 20-3 on Monday Night Football; Miami (-2.5) covered by 14.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Falcons minus six versus the Lions. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yes, so I don't know if people have noticed this, but the Falcons are horrible at home. They haven't covered a game. They haven't won a game at home. And now they're laying, I mean, points to a Detroit team that is starting to figure it out. I think it's going to be tough here for them. So Matt Ryan has been held under 200 passing yards in five of his last eight games. He's just over 300 yards routinely in almost every game. There's only three touchdown passes in the last six games. Detroit has found a running back, Craig Reynolds. No one even heard of this guy until a couple weeks ago. And then Matt Ryan, he's just losing the ball. Fumbled nine times this year. Only three touchdowns the last six games. I mean, just not getting it done here. So I'm seeing a team here, Detroit, even though the record's 2-11-1, they're playing hard. They don't have any major injuries. It looks like no COVID spread, so we're going to take a run here with Detroit here. Wrong team favorite, Detroit over Atlanta.”
20-16 — Atlanta beat Detroit 20-16; Detroit (+6) covered by losing only 4 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Bengals, minus three versus the Ravens. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So I think Lamar Jackson right out of the gate is not 100%. Even if he plays in this game, I do expect him to play. He's probably about 80, 85% tops. They gave him the Pro Bowl. I mean, he gets the Pro Bowl with like 15 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, or 16 touchdowns, 13 interceptions. He only has four rushing touchdowns. I mean, Josh Allen's numbers, I mean, almost double that. So I don't get it. It become a popularity contest here You know people in love with the name the Ravens They think of defense They defensive backs They lost their best one Humphreys top five defensive back in the NFL They have nothing else left after that. Pretty decent run defense, but I think Cincinnati's balanced. Here's a team that's starting to get it all together. Tamar Chase doing a nice job. I don't think that the Ravens can cover him on the deep balls. And Joe Burrow, like you said, we don't have a coverage spread because he was quoted yesterday. Nothing to do here in Cincinnati. No nightlife here. So I just think Cincinnati, it's their time. You can't keep playing teams based on what they did in the past. Baltimore, what do they have as a receiving team? They got no receivers. It's a tight end in Andrews. So I like Cincinnati here. I'm going to lay the points here. A low out special Cincinnati Bengals.”
41-21 — Cincinnati beat Baltimore 41-21, covering -3 by a 20-point margin (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Seattle minus 6.5 versus Chicago. What's your thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so I saved the best for last. This is my strongest play for the weekend. And if you like Seattle and you like Russell Wilson, you better enjoy it because I think you got three games left to watch him. I think he's leaving. I think he's going to force his way out I think Pete Carroll is going to step down Just my prediction And why do I say that I just looking at body language And it just doesn look like he happy there I think Pete Carroll realizes it's over. So if you watch their games, I mean, they just, they're lucky, their defense. They're giving up yards left and right. Most yards allow, that's it, most yards allow their defense in the NFL. but somehow they're in the top third of points allowed. So just a little over 20 points per game allowed. But just think that they're going to face a Chicago team that came close to putting it all together against Minnesota. Another team, like Detroit, that's playing hard. They're not giving up here. So don't be surprised. Chicago might even be in the running besides Denver to get Russell Wilson. These two quarterbacks could flip-flop. We could see Justin Fields playing for Seattle next year. But Chicago, just think you got a team here that I think they're going to take advantage of also a weak secondary. A lot of COVID cases for Seattle here. And like I said, I think Seattle realizes they're done. So we're going to take advantage of it. Take the six and a half points here on the 12th day of Betmas. Give you my strongest play. Chicago Bears plus six and a half over the Seattle Seahawks.”
24-25 — Chicago beat Seattle 25-24; Chicago (+6.5) covered by winning the game outright (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Miami, Ohio, minus 3 versus North Texas. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, 37 miles. That's all they need to travel. They could call an Uber and make it to this game. So it's in the afternoon, 3.30 Eastern. So if you're listening early, thank you. And this is a nice little early gift, hopefully, to get you started for the day and the weekend of sports betting. So here's the deal with North Texas. They were sitting at 1-6. Looks like their season is done. Nothing's going on. And then they just caught fire. They figured it out. They started beating teams they should beat. And then the end of the season, they shocked Texas San Antonio as a 9.5-point underdog, destroyed them, 45-23 November 27th. So most people think of them as a passing team. And Austin on, you know, decent passer, but they're a running team. They run the football. So most people don't pay attention to this. DeAndre Torrey is big-time running back. He gained over 1,200 yards, almost five yards a carry, 13 touchdowns. And we have another Mac opponent. How bad is the Mac done? And that should just go down to, like, FCS. Middle Tennessee State beat Toledo. They lost by a touchdown. Northern Illinois, they lost by six points. Eastern Michigan got bombed by 36 to Liberty. And then Kent State lost by 14 to Wyoming. You would think they'd be up for these games. They just can't match up against these teams from the other conferences. So, hey, I know they got Brett Gabbert. You know, his brother played in the NFL. Also, something to note, Miami of Ohio's strength is their pass rush, which is rare for a MAAC team. Usually, defensive line is no good. They average over three sacks a game. Problem here is, North Texas doesn't throw the football much. North Texas, plus the points, wrong team favorite.”
27-14 — Miami (OH) beat North Texas 27-14 in the Frisco Football Classic; North Texas (+3) lost outright by 13, failing to cover (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. 49ers minus 3 versus the Titans Break this one down for us Lee Jimmy G he back So he been playing really well during this stretch right now Last six games where they've gone five and one, 12 touchdown passes and completing 70% of his passes. Deebo Samuel, how good has he been catching and running the football? A receiver, he scored touchdowns running the ball five straight games, NFL record. George Kittle can't guard the guy. What has he done just in the last three games? He's healthy again, 28 receptions for 425 yards and three touchdowns here. Tennessee is depleted on the offensive line. They'll be able to have two starters, and one of them is their best offensive lineman here. They're averaging just 14 points per game the last four games. Ryan Tannehill, one 300-yard passing game in the last 11 games here. San Francisco. Hey, people are thinking home dog here, Tennessee. No way. San Francisco minus the three on the road. Level two lock.”
17-20 — Tennessee beat San Francisco 20-17 on Thursday Night Football; SF (-3) lost outright, failing to cover (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Indiana minus nine versus those Rockets. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so Indiana was embarrassed in their last game. I mean, triple embarrassed. They lost by 31 points to a Miami Heat team where the only starter that was available and played was Kyle Lowry. I mean, we had guys like Strews. Even Udonis Haslam got in the game. I think they gave up something like 31-3, something like that. It was an embarrassing number. No, actually it was 22. But the problem here for Houston is they had that streak. And they played well for a while. And, you know, people think, you know, maybe they'll be competitive. But in four of the last five games that they lost, they lost by 13 points or more. So they play hard until they realize they're out of it, and then it's usually a blowout here. So this Pacers team was not missing any key players for that game. I think they have some pride here. Last game before the Christmas break for them, I think they come out and hand Houston a big-time loss. So we're going to lay the nine points. I like Indiana Pacers here. It'll be my 11th day of Betmas selection here as we head into the holiday.”
118-106 — Indiana beat Houston 118-106, covering -9 by a 12-point margin (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line, Western Kentucky is plus 11 versus the Wildcats. Break this one down. There's a nice story behind this game as well. Great story behind this game. So what happened was Kentucky was set to play Louisville. and Louisville, too many COVID cases, had to cancel the game. So they put out a plea. They said, listen, we'd love to play anyone who's interested in traveling to play us here at home on Wednesday night. And sure enough, Western Kentucky, the team like Fresno State and college football that says anyone anywhere, they said we'd love to play you. They haven't played in a long, long time. I mean, I think it's going over, yeah, 2012. Did a little digging here, and the Wildcats won that game against Western Kentucky 81-66. It was actually at home in the NCAA tournament. So they don't usually have a lot to gain to these teams like Louisville and Kentucky by playing Western Kentucky. And Western Kentucky is fired up. And then they both came together and said, you know what, I don't know the exact amount, whether it's a quarter or a half or whatever, of the money that comes in through ticket sales. and maybe it's, you know, refreshment sales. But what they're going to do is they're going to donate that to the tornado victims in Kentucky, in Western Kentucky. So I thought that was great. And two teams coming together so we can take our minds and those people in Kentucky off what happened and help them out. And so here's the situation of this game. So I think Kentucky is good, but Western Kentucky is coming on. They actually beat Louisville on Saturday. So unlike other teams where you see Kentucky have that height advantage, they will not have it against Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky has a 7'5 freshman center named Jim Rion Sharp. Jim Rion Sharp is 7'5", averages over eight points a game, almost eight rebounds a game here. He can protect the paint here. He had 14 points and eight rebounds and four blocks in their game against Louisville. They also, Cameron Justice, 25 points on five for seven from three-point range. They have no fear, this team here. And like I said, I think that they can win in a bunch of different ways here. So I think they're going to keep this game close. I see Kentucky winning the game probably like 78, 72, but I think 11 points is way too much here. wrong team favored. We're going with Western Kentucky plus the 11 points against Kentucky on Wednesday night.”
60-95 — Kentucky beat Western Kentucky 95-60; Western Kentucky (+11) lost outright by 35, failing to cover (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Tennessee minus 2 versus Arizona. Thoughts on this one Lee Okay so if people remember who listened to this podcast we had a Texas Tech selection at Tennessee It was one of the ugliest games That was I think it was the overtime or double overtime where Texas Tech won They were getting like five, five and a half points. I think it was like 40, I don't know, 46, 46 or something like that. They went to overtime. It was painful to watch. Now we have Arizona coming to Tennessee. I think Tennessee can win only one way. That's a low-scoring game. If the game gets into the 70s, I think they're a loser. So they have a great defense and not taking anything away from that defense. Most teams, they hold into the 50s. But here's the problem. They're going to play a team in Arizona that can win both ways. They can outscore you, and boy, can they score. They are just scary good. They're averaging right now 91 points per game. so they can fill it up and then they also play defense people don't think of teams you know that have really good offenses having good defenses but um they uh they can play defense here and right i think they're almost maybe as good or even better than tennessee playing defense so uh trying to keep it simple here just telling you i think that uh uh we're going to see a game probably where Arizona scores mid to high 70s, maybe low 80s, and Tennessee can't keep up with them here. We're going to go with a level three lock. Big one. Arizona plus two over Tennessee tonight in college basketball between two top 25 teams.”
77-73 — Tennessee beat Arizona 77-73; Arizona (+2) lost outright by 4, failing to cover (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Army minus 6.5 versus Missouri. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, this is a game that I love. And as we said, these Betoness selections are games that I'm giving my clients, and I like Army a lot. And here's why. They have the number two rushing offense, Missouri, 127th rush defense. I think it was Tennessee ran for like 400 or 500 yards against them. I don't think you can all of a sudden improve that much. So the last time Army played a bad run defense in a bowl, They played Houston a few years back. They won 70-14. I don't know if it's going to be a 56-point win, but I can see a 20-30-point win here. Missouri also opened up the competition of quarterback. They're not saying who's going to be the starting quarterback. I don't think that's good for a team here. So I think Army wants to get that bad taste out of their mouth in the loss against Navy. What we're seeing is teams. I thought we would see some teams that they're just happy or maybe after tough losses, they just go through the motions. But we're not seeing that in the bowl game so far. So you have to sometimes change on the fly and realize what's going on. Also, Army can score, like we said, but they also play defense. How about this? Only three teams have scored above 21 points against Army. Who were they? Ball State, a game of Ball State. They gave up 28. That's not terrible. Ball State has a pretty good offense. the two teams they gave up a lot of points to, Western Kentucky and Wake Forest, top five passing teams. So sometimes it's all about who you're playing, how you're playing, when you're playing here. So I just see this team, Army, they're going to be fired up. Like I said, they want to get that bad taste out of their mouth. They stop the run, and that's how Missouri likes to travel. They give up just 3.7 yards per carry, 111 yards per game here. They're laying six and a half here. And on the 10th day of Betmus, we're going with Army minus six and a half blowout over Missouri.”
24-22 — Army beat Missouri 24-22 in the Armed Forces Bowl; Army (-6.5) won by only 2, failing to cover (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Eagles minus six and a half versus the Washington football team. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so I mentioned at the start of the show that the Raiders should have blown them out last night, Cleveland. This is another case where a team is laying some points less than a touchdown, should blow out an opponent. And I think we're going to see it here. Washington is decimated. They will start a third-string quarterback. Kyle Allen out. Taylor Heineke out. So if any guess who they going to start and I can see them scoring more than 10 13 points And if that happens Philadelphia has weapons I mean they can score So this Washington team I mean their best two pass rushers were already out Their best cornerback, out. Like I mentioned, top two quarterbacks, out. They could start Gilbert, Schumer, Jordan Tamu. I mean, who knows what they're going to do there. So I think Philadelphia is a pretty good team that's gotten better. So blowout special. We're going to go with the Philadelphia Eagles minus the six and a half.”
27-17 — Philadelphia beat Washington 27-17, covering -6.5 by a 10-point margin (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Seattle Moneyline plus 250 versus the Rams. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, just like the Kaikara France knockout that we predicted, I think we have a good chance at a victory here. And it's not like if it was even money, okay, I wouldn't take a chance. You take chances on bet a little win a lot when you're up. A lot of gamblers will get to the last night of the week, like on a Monday night, and they're down, let's say, $1,100 for the week, and they're normally $100, $200, $300 better. And what do they put? They put up over $1,000 on the game because they want to get even. They don't want to pay their man. wrong way to approach it you do these bets when you're winning so here we have the seattle seahawks they lost to the ramps i mean this was the like the fifth game of the season on a thursday night 26 17 now since that time the rams beat the giants giants don't impress me detroit terrible Houston, maybe the worst team in the league. Then they got blown out at home to Tennessee, lost on Monday night, blown out 31-10 to San Francisco, lost to Green Bay, and then they come back and beat Jacksonville, bottom two, bottom three team in the league. And then now we realize beat a not very good Arizona Cardinals team. So I'm not impressed. The Rams are up and down. They were up for that game. They were considered the hunter. Now they're being hunted. Seattle's still in the playoff hope in the hunt here. At 5-8, they win this game. They're 6-8. They could finish 9-8. So this is their last gasp. Russell Wilson, they can win this game. The odds are plus 250. Bet a little. Win a lot. Seattle Seahawks, for every $100, you get back $250.”
10-20 — LA Rams beat Seattle 20-10 on Tuesday Night Football; Seattle moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Phoenix minus seven versus the Lakers. Give us the details on this one, Lee. Yeah, I was fired up and, you know, I'm going to always be watching these two teams when they face off against each other. But listen to all these injuries. Anthony Davis, gone for the game. You know, typical is his midseason injury. You know, he misses a month. Russell Westbrook, he's out with COVID protocols. Dwight Howard, he's out. So, you know, no backup center. The list goes on and on and on. I think they're only dressing like maybe nine guys for tonight. Phoenix got back Devin Booker. they are now I think it's something like 24 and 3 the last 27 games here they love to put a final nail in the coffin here for the Lakers you're laying seven you're thinking hey at home Lakers can keep it close with LeBron nah he'll be out maybe by the middle of the third quarter here Phoenix Suns here uh level two lock for the LA Lakers”
108-90 — Phoenix beat the LA Lakers 108-90, covering -7 by an 18-point margin (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. San Diego State minus three versus the Roadrunners. Break this one down for us, Lee. So here's the deal with San Diego State. They do one thing well. They run the football. They cannot throw the football. It's like the four pass is a foreign word to these. It's painful to watch them throw the football. So what happens is if they can run the ball, they're successful. They're going against one of the top 10 teams in run defense in Texas, San Antonio. It's going to be like a home game. I mean, they're just traveling up I-35, three hours for this game. I mean, this should be like a 10-to-1 advantage here as far as fans are concerned. And UTSA does really well, 7-1 against the spread of their last eight games against a team with a winning record. This means everything to them. They can finish 13-1. So a lot of senior leadership here. No injuries. I mean, I'm just looking at this team, and they've got a really good running back, McCormick. He almost gained almost 1,500 yards this year, had 15 touchdowns. Quarterback Frank Harris doesn't turn the ball over here. I think this is a great play here. So on the ninth day of Betmiss, I'm going to give you UTSA here plus the three points. They're going to win the game out right over San Diego State.”
38-24 — San Diego State beat UTSA 38-24 in the Frisco Bowl; UTSA (+3) lost outright by 14, failing to cover (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Tulsa minus 9 versus Old Dominion. How are you seeing this one shake out, Lee? Okay, so this selection reminds me of my selection that I had for Oregon State and Utah State in the Jimmy Kimmel Bowl. And why did I like it? Oregon State as an underdog is great, but they weren't in that role. They were in the favorite role, and in the favorite role, they're just not good. And Utah State was playing well the second half of the season. So we have a similar type situation here, in my opinion. You got an Old Dominion team that didn't look good early but had a five-game winning streak to get to 6-6 and they go to a bowl. So a lot of people are dismissing them. They're facing a Tulsa team that played really well against good teams. In fact, the dog is 10-3 against the spread in Tulsa games. Tulsa plays to the level of their competition in games against unranked opponents. Turnover margin, minus 8. Old Dominion, very good special teams. In fact, top 10. And Tulsa quarterback Davis Brin, I just think he's held this team back here. 59% completion percentage. 16 touchdowns, which is really weak for a team that's going to a bowl, and he played practically every play. 16 interceptions. I have Tulsa winning the game barely, 35-31, but it wouldn't shock me if Old Dominion wins out right here. wrong team favored. Let's start off this next week. And we've now won, I think it's now, what is it? 15 out of 18 weeks. So we're going to go for, we're going to go for 16 out of 19 winning weeks. First selection of the week, Old Dominion plus the points, wrong team favorite.”
30-17 — Tulsa beat Old Dominion 30-17 in the Myrtle Beach Bowl; Old Dominion (+9) lost outright by 13, failing to cover (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag live for this one. Notre Dame is minus 20.5 versus Western Michigan. How are you feeling this one, Lee? So Western Michigan has played one, well, actually two teams that are decent all year. Played Michigan State, lost 90-46. They played Iowa, lost 109-61. They've even lost to Saginaw Valley State by 17. lost to Florida Gulf Coast, who's not good this year, by 10. Their wins, you ready for this? I've never heard of the school. St. Thomas Aquinas. St. Thomas Aquinas is a high school down there that wins stadium. They only beat them by 11. They beat a school called Hope in 76-58. I mean, it's a joke. It is an absolute joke. And I understand during COVID you want to play teams closer to you, but let's get some schools at least we've heard of before. Whereas Notre Dame may not have a good record, but boy, they played some good teams. They played Boston College. They played Indiana. Played Texas A&M. Played Illinois and played them tough. Played St. Mary's, who's tough this year. Only lost by three. And they beat Kentucky. They beat Kentucky last Saturday, 66-62. here. So the line, you're thinking, wow, a four, you know, a team with a losing record, four and five, you want to lay that many points? Yeah, this is going to be a blowout here. I'm looking at this Western Michigan team and they are almost, they're bottom like 20 in almost every major statistical category, offense and defense. So they're scoring barely over 60 points. They're giving up almost 80 points per game here. I think Notre Dame. I think this is a romper room special here. Blowout special. Notre Dame over Western Michigan.”
85-52 — Notre Dame beat Western Michigan 85-52, covering -20.5 by a 33-point margin (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Vikings minus 6.5 versus the Bears. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? You know what? I think the Bears are done. I mean, the Bears have lost 7 out of 8 games, and the only win was 16-14 against Detroit. They emptied it out last week in that game against Green Bay. I mean, they played about as well as they could play. They have so many injuries. They can't throw the football. Four passes in there. So Justin Fields, I think eventually he's going to be good. He's not there. He's averaging just 176 passing yards. And let's put it in context. I heard someone talking about this. I don't like to go back, but I'm going to go back even way, way, way back. When they were just starting off throwing the football forward pass, Sid Luckman averaged 189 yards over a four-year period. 176 yards. I mean, this is like for a team that runs the football. This is not the NFL. So all their injuries on defense have caught up with them. Minnesota, since Dalvin Cook came back, they are explosive. They got a shot. I think if I saw something, if the playoffs ended today, they'd be in the playoffs. So big game for them here. I like Minnesota. I'm laying the 6.5 as long as it stays under a touchdown. I think it's an easy one. So on the eighth day of Betmus, we're going with the Minnesota Vikings on the second of two Monday night games.”
17-9 — Minnesota beat Chicago 17-9 on Monday Night Football, covering -6.5 by an 8-point margin (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.ag line for this one. NC State plus two and a half versus Richmond. Go ahead, break this one down for us. Yeah, two evenly matched teams here. This game is going to be played in Charlotte, North Carolina. So, you know, I'm watching this Richmond team. I've seen them play a bunch this year. They're able to beat the teams that they should be able to beat. But when they go up against these Tier 1 and Tier 2 teams, not able to quite get over the hump their last game, they were taken right down to the wire. People remember North Carolina State most. because they were involved in that four-overtime game earlier a couple weeks ago, like 104-100 finals. So they played, I think, some top teams and actually held in there. I mean, they lost to Purdue, which was number one for a couple weeks this year and came up short 82-72, showed well in that game. And just think that the team that I think is going to be in it here, I don't know if they're going to win the game, but might come down to last possession, 14th in the nation as far as taking care of the ball. Don turn the ball over much So I think it going to be a tight game I take the points here the designated home team here and just think that North Carolina State plus 2 versus Richmond here Wrong team favored, number one.”
83-74 — Richmond beat NC State 83-74; NC State (+2.5) lost outright and failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for this one Denver minus two and a half versus the Bengals break this one down for us Lee yeah and a lot of people are going to have trouble figuring this game out and I think I can give them follow the path to the right side here. Bengals haven't had a whole lot of success when things are going well, but they've dealt with failure extremely well. They're trying to avoid their first three-game losing streak this year. Joe Burrow, really good off of a loss. Eight and three against the spread off a loss. I think they have the better playmakers here in this game here with Borough quarterback number two running back in the NFL, Joe Mixon, and Jamar Chase. He's the deep threat. Joe Barr's already thrown for 25 touchdowns here. Chase tied for second in TD receptions with 10. I just don't think that Denver has the same kind of firepower here. And the Bengals' lowest amount of penalties in the NFL, a lot of people don't realize that. They don't beat themselves here. They just come together on the road. But every year there's a couple teams that do extremely well on the road, and they're one of them. And Denver, on the other hand, is terrible at home. I mean, 5-10-1 against the spread the last 16 home games. You used to think of Denver as this great home field advantage. It just doesn't exist anymore, where Cincinnati covered four of the last five games here on the road. And also the Broncos, even though they're coming off a big win against the Lions, may be coming off an emotional high here and come down a little bit, even though there's a must-win here with both teams at 7-6. They played for their fallen star receiver Demarius Thomas, who unexpectedly passed away last week. So maybe a little bit of a letdown there for Denver. So I'm going to take the points here, 2.5 in Cincinnati. Wrong team favorite, number two.”
10-15 — Cincinnati beat Denver 15-10, covering as +2.5 underdog by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“The BetOnline.ag line for this one, Jordan the Monkey King Levitt, minus 117 versus Matt Robo Sales. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so UFC fight night, Lewis versus Dock House. It starts 4 p.m. Eastern, so pay attention. I always get at least two or three people that will contact me, text me, email me, say, hey, how's the card looking? Has it started yet? I'll be like, yeah, like three hours ago. So we're taking the first fight on the undercard, about 4.05, 4.10. It's going to start Eastern time. We've got, this is the 155-pound lightweight division. Levitt's a slight favorite, 118 favorite money line. I think this is going to be an easy one to call here. Levitt has a significant advantage here in grappling. Sales, last outing while fighting as a featherweight, 145 pounds, although he came in overweight at 148.5, he was taken down immediately and submitted via Twister by Bryce Mitchell. It was a 2019 submission of the year. Might have been the first ever twister that ever took place, first or second, in UFC. So unusual type of hold. But Mitchell just dominated him, and I think Levitt will, too. I think it's a mismatch. So move over, Lion King. Here comes the monkey king here. Hakuna Matana. Levitt by submission. That is my level three lock.”
Jordan Leavitt defeated Matt Sayles by submission (inverted triangle choke) in round 2 at UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus (Wikipedia fight results table).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll over 62.5 points. Again, Coastal Carolina versus Northern Illinois. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so two real good quarterbacks at this level. grace him a call for Coastal Carolina and there's talk that he might transfer after that I don't know if you saw the news yesterday he was one of the athletes that Tom Brady is going to do an NIL deal with his clothing line so this is a kid who a top quarterback used to battle Sam Howell in high school both of their high schools went back and forth Just think that he just been under the radar here You look at scoring He did miss a couple games with injury, but they put it on some teams. They scored in one of their games, Louisiana Monroe, 59 points. Arkansas State, 52. Even in their loss, Appalachian State scored 27. That's their low score of the entire season. So he's back. He's healthy. I think he wants to show big before he possibly moves on. And then on the other side, former Michigan State quarterback Rocky Lombardi moved to northern Illinois. At one time, they were 100-1 underdog to win the conference. They pulled it off. They won the conference championship. And, boy, are they scoring. But they do it different ways. They can run the football. They have a 1,000-yard rusher. If they need to throw the football, Rocky Lombardi can do that, even run the football. Gritty guy. And, boy, have they been scoring. I mean, their last five games, they scored 47, 30, 33, 21, and 41. But, like I said, they do it both ways. Both defenses don't show very well. Weather should be perfect in Orlando. The game starts at 6 o'clock Eastern. So total 62-and-a-half. I made this game like 72. So I think we're about 10 points above what the line should be here. I think we're going to see one team in the 40s, maybe another in the 30s. I'm not going to play the game here. I'm going to go with two absolute really top-level offenses. Coastal Carolina, number seven in yards per game and almost 493 yards per game. And Northern Illinois, not far behind. So over 62 and a half total points here. That will be my seventh day of Betmiss selection here for the show.”
47-41 — Coastal Carolina beat Northern Illinois 47-41 in the Cure Bowl; combined 88 points clears the 62.5 total (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Philadelphia plus one and a half versus the Nets. Break this one down for us. All right, so I'm watching a game last night I didn't even bet on, watching the Miami Heat against Philadelphia 76ers. And sometimes that's why it's important to take notes, and I just watched a listless Philadelphia 76ers team last night. Miami Heat really had like two of their top eight players playing. I mean, they were playing guys that I'd never even seen play before, and Miami ends up winning the game by three. They were up by 10 to 20 points the entire game. I just think that they were embarrassed. Good teams come back after a beatdown like that, and they're going to play Brooklyn, who I don't know why they're favored. I mean, listen to all these guys that are out for the game. Marcus Aldridge, out. Bruce Brown, out. James Harden, out. Joe Harris, out. Kyrie Irvin, he's been out this season. James Johnson and Paul Millsap, also out. Most of these guys, COVID protocols. Joe Harris has been injured. But this is almost unheard of. So I'm going to take advantage. I just don't think that the Philadelphia 76ers want to be embarrassed two nights in a row and just think that they have some pride. Not saying that they're championship level, but I think they're at that next level right beneath it. And I think it was just effort. It was not like they were shooting horrible. Just no effort. And I think the coaching staff will be on them. And short bus ride across the river. So I'm going to take the one and a half points here. Wrong team favored.”
BKN 114, PHI 105 — Brooklyn beat Philadelphia 114-105, a 9-point margin that busts the +1.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Avalanche money line, minus 155 versus the Predators. Give us the details on this one, Lee. Yeah, I don't think anyone is going to stop the Colorado Avalanche right now. People don't realize this, so they got off to a really slow start. They They opened the season 2-4. But what happened since then? Since October 28th, they're 15-3-2. No one's talking about them either. They plus 34 in goal differential They averaging 4 goals per game in that fan That a 20 sample size of a team averaging by far the most goals in the NHL right now per game If you watch their games, the one thing they do like no other team in the NHL is they get speed in scoring from their defensemen. So, Kale Meikar is probably the best defenseman in the league right now. Then you have Sam Girald and also Eric Johnson, who can do just about the same. I don't think Nashville is going to be able to defend the speed from the back end. They're going to be without four of their starting fours. Will Nashville be here, including their top two centers for this game due to COVID protocols? So it's important you've got to study the protocols and who's out. A lot more work than most times of the year. But I think if you study it hard, you can find some winners here. And they don't even have four forward lines here to put on the ice. They only have three. So this is not the team that you want to be shorthanded against. I think Colorado wears them down in this one. Too much for the Predators to handle. I'm looking at something like a 4-1 final here. So level two lock, Colorado Avalanche, money line, minus 155.”
NSH 5, COL 2 — Nashville beat Colorado 5-2; Avalanche moneyline busts (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Chiefs, minus three versus Chargers. Break this one down for us, Lee. So I don't know if people realize this, but if the Chargers win this game, they're at the top of the division. So they won the first game against the Chiefs, got off to a big start. And I think they going to have to find a quick start to win this game here So I just love the play calling of Andy Reid I think that you got to take that into account Some people just look at the offense versus the defense Coaching is important in big games and chargers are close and maybe next year, you know, they get over the top, but I don't think they're quite there yet. And we're seeing the Chiefs get off to really quick starts here. The defense of last four games have been having given up more than 17 points here. So I think they're going to be able to put some pressure on the quarterback. They're defensive line right now, even without Jones, who's out. But I just like the way that this team is playing. And I think once they get the lead, I just don't see the Chargers catching up here. And turnovers and also special teams. Special teams are special here for Kansas City. They might come down to a kicker. Buckner, I think he's just one of the top three or four kickers in the NFL. And Chargers have rotated through kickers the last couple years. So I'm taking the Chiefs. I'm going to lay the three points here. It'll be my sixth day of Betmas selection. Kansas City Chiefs tonight, Thursday night football, minus the three over the L.A. Chargers.”
KC 34, LAC 28 — Kansas City beat the LA Chargers 34-28 in overtime, a 6-point margin that covers -3 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Middle Tennessee plus 11.5 versus Ole Miss. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so, you know, there's a couple things that I look at. Like, for instance, when a team shoots over 60% in the NBA, I ride them the next game. I've been following this trend for like five years now. They usually continue to shoot high. They may not shoot 60% in the next game, but they'll shoot 56%, 58%. It seems like over and over again. Well, if a team has a bad game and can't shoot, and then they're laying double digits, it's a recipe for disaster. Ole Miss on Saturday played Western Kentucky. They lost 71-48. They scored just 48 points. That's right. So they shot 27% from the field. So I don't think anytime soon are they going to start shooting straight. And I'm not laying double digits here. This Middle Tennessee State team, tough team, 8-2. You know, in the last 10 days, they played Tennessee Martin, which is decent, beat them twice, and lost to that Murray State team by just six points on the road. You know, Murray State had the big upset, we called, over Memphis. So I like Middle Tennessee State plus the 11 and a half here. Wrong team favorite.”
Ole Miss 62, Middle Tennessee 52 — Ole Miss beat Middle Tennessee 62-52, a 10-point margin that covers the +11.5 (ESPN).
“Betonline.ag line for this one. Utah State plus seven and a half versus Oregon State. What are your thoughts on this one? So Utah State is hot. Not a lot was thought of this team. Back at one point, they're sitting at three and two, and people are like, well, you know, maybe they'll be lucky to be 500. Well, what happens? They go on and win seven of their last eight games. They even won the conference championship over San Diego State. They thrashed them 46 to 13. New coach, brought over a quarterback from Arkansas State, Logan Bonner. What a year. He's had 36 touchdown passes. And on the road, how good has this team been? Well, they've won every single game on the road this year. So just see a team here right now that they have no fear at all. They have nothing to lose. playing an Oregon State team that's great as an underdog, but just not a good favorite. So we're going to bet a little win a lot here. We're going to go with Utah State. Now they getting I going to play some on them getting seven and a half points in this game but my main bet here is Utah State money line over Oregon State You going to see a lot of underdogs win outright in college football bowl season so don't be afraid to play money line. That's how you make money in the college football bowl season, especially the first week or 10 days of the bowls here, so bet a little win a lot here. Utah State money line over the Oregon State Beavers.”
Utah State 24, Oregon State 13 — Utah State beat Oregon State 24-13 in the LA Bowl on December 18, 2021; Utah State moneyline cashes (Wikipedia).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Lakers minus one versus the Mavs. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, and this is pretty simple here. This is another case where you get a team that just doesn't know how to close out games. And Dallas, look at Don G. He's not going to be playing in this game. So I don't know who they're going to turn to. I mean, they've got a lot of nice complementary players. And in their last game, you know, they had some of these role players like Trey Burke. I mean, he had a huge game to get something like 22 points in that game. I just don't see that happening again here. So, you know, I just like the way the Lakers are putting it together. I think the Lakers under the radar here now, you know, they're barely above 500. I think this is a case where in 15 and 13, they'll probably go on a run there. They won five of the last seven. In fact, LeBron had a triple double in their last game. So I think that you get the more experienced team here. And finally, we see LeBron coming back, being close to 100%. I'm laying the one point, just like the Golden State game here. We're going with a level two lock.”
LAL 107, DAL 104 — The Lakers beat Dallas 107-104 in overtime, a 3-point margin that covers -1 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Maple Leafs money line, minus 118 versus the Oilers. Break this one down for us, Lee. So when you're handicapping, I like to give people who are listening some of the tools that I look at. Don't just say, I want to play this team because they're playing well or they're coming off a loss. They're a good home team. Look for layers. So there's plenty to worry about if you're an Edmonton Oilers fan right now. One of the biggest question marks about this team is whether or not they can beat a legitimate cup contender. And they have no problem putting up goals against the teams that are tanking or even fringe playoff teams. But I just don't think they have enough right now to open up space for their top guys like Connor McDavid against this elite competition. When you face off against top teams like the Florida Panthers, Minnesota Wild, Carolina Hurricanes, you have to be able to find some secondary scoring outside of your top guys. And they couldn't do that against the Wild or the Hurricanes last week. And that's why they've lost those two games and have lost five straight. On top of that, when you have your number one goalie and Mike Smith, who goes down with an injury, you can't rely on second-string goalies or minor league goalies to step in for more than a couple of weeks. So it's also why Toronto make-believe have dominated them in recent memory. These two teams have played each other five times since the start of 2021, and Toronto's gone 4-1 those five games, and has outscored Edmonton 20-8 in that span. I don't think enough has changed for Edmonton to buck that trend tonight. Toronto here with five goals. You love to have those four five-goal games. Toronto wins 5-2 in a blowout. Blowout special. Toronto Maple Leafs money line, minus 118.”
TOR 5, EDM 1 — Toronto beat Edmonton 5-1; Maple Leafs moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Creighton minus 7.5 versus Arizona State. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so we look at the matchups, and Arizona State might eventually be decent, but they're playing without one of their best players, Marcus Bagley here. I'd think that wins over Grand Canyon and Oregon are nice, but bigger problems here for Arizona State. Arizona State 7 against the spread their last 25 games against a team with a winning record 4 against the spread in their last 17 row games Well just think that Creighton 25 their last 37 games against a team with a losing record This is the games that they just seem to take care of business here. So, playing at home here, team that shares the ball really well here, might be close for a while. But in the end, Arizona State also, remember, this is the week a lot of kids taking finals. They're distracted. The holidays here. And I think Creighton builds on that 83-71 win they had over BYU in their last game here. So I'm going to take, I think this is another blowout here. Creighton Blue Jays here. Minus the points. Blowout special number two.”
ASU 58, CREI 57 — Arizona State beat Creighton 58-57; Creighton lost outright, busting the -7.5 spread (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Golden State minus 4.5 versus the Knicks. Break this one down for us, Lee. So if you were thinking about going to this game, time might have passed you by unless you got some deep wallets. You know, I have a daughter up there in New York City, so I'm always getting alerts on prices on big games. And, boy, it keeps telling me double. Prices have doubled, tripled. Now it looks like they're going to almost beat the stage where they've quadrupled. So this is the game everyone wants to see. They want to see Steph Curry break the three-point record here. And if the Knicks are going to have to give them a game, they're going to have to do it in waves. They don't have the better starting lineup. They can't guard Steph. They have trouble even guarding Wiggins. And R.J. Barrett is out. Also, a couple other injuries here. Obi Toppin, he is out. Alex Burks is doubtful. So, you know, they might only go like six, seven deep here. And I don't think it's enough. And then they're going to have to have some of their other guys like Julius Randle. He's going to have to step up. And he doesn't seem to do real well. He seems to disappear in the fourth quarter. And when I look at this game, just think that this is a bad matchup here. I think it's going to be a case of Draymond Green shutting down Randle here. I'm going to lay the points here. This is going to be a level two lock here. The Golden State Warriors take care of the New York Knicks in the Garden tonight.”
GSW 105, NYK 96 — Golden State beat New York 105-96, a 9-point margin that covers -4.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Islanders money line, minus 117 versus Red Wings. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so I think the Islanders are starting to turn a corner here. And I think we're going to get ahead of it a little bit. And sometimes I do that. You just see teams, you know, you see things starting to click and watch them and may not show up, you know, in the results. But, you know, sometimes you've got to be ahead of it if you want to, you know, get ahead of a team that's going to win maybe eight of the next 10 or nine of the next 12. And I think we might see that here. So they started the season in the worst possible way. They opened the season on the second longest road trip in NHL history due to their arena construction in Long Island. They opened the new arena with an 11-game losing streak when they had a ton of guys also out with COVID. But this is actually a good team. They've won two of the last three. They should have won all three of those games because they lost to the Nashville Predators on a game-winning goal with 12 seconds left. In those three games, they've scored five, three, and four goals. Before that, they had scored four more goals just twice all season. Now they're getting Detroit group that has given up 18 goals in the last three games and is starting to regress from their hot start. The Islanders lost to the Red Wings back in the December year, early December. So there's a bit of a revenge angle here, too. So I think they start to play their game here. I think they keep Detroit here contained. I think we're going to see a 3-1 final here. So on the fourth day of Bet, Miss, I'm going to give you the New York Islanders money line minus 117.”
DET 2, NYI 1 — Detroit beat the Islanders 2-1; New York Islanders moneyline busts (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag, line for this one. The Cavaliers, minus five versus the Heat. Thoughts on this one, Lee? I don't think that anyone thought that Cleveland would have a winning record if they did. They did say they saw it. I think they're probably lying. But people don't even know who their coach is. It's Bernie Bickerstaff. So he's doing a great job. He's been around a bunch of different places. But you talk about a team that's getting it done, they're getting it done. And statistically, they really are not high on any statistical category. But they got a lot of guys that are comfortable in their own skin. They're happy being there, unlike LeBron James, who comes and goes. Got guys like Evan Mobley. A lot of people don't know a lot about the guy. Averaging 14 points, 8.5 rebounds. Got a really good center. Jared Allen. Well, averaging 17.5 points and over 11 rebounds. And in his last game, what did he do? 19 points, 11 rebounds. You got a guy no one knows about, Darius Garland. No one knows about this guy. He's a point guard. Backing up Sexton. Sexton's out. Well, he's only averaging 19 points and over 7.5 assists a game. And then the bench. How about this? Kevin love over 11 and a half points a game. Then you got guys like Ricky Rubio coming off the bench, scoring 13 points a game off the bench, averaging over six assists a game And then uh uh also as kid city Usman uh 11 points points in just 22 minutes per game So this team is playing hard They're playing well. They're going to play a Miami Heat team that's going to be missing Jimmy Butler. It's going to be in Bam Adebayo. I mean, the list goes on and on. They're depleted. Yeah, they won against Chicago Saturday night, but Chicago only dressed nine guys because of COVID. I'm going to lay the points here I think this has blowouts spelled all over it here Miami, you know, maybe a false sense of security that they'll be okay here This is a big game for Cleveland They know they're going to be on the national stage Give me Cleveland here over Miami Blowout special”
CLE 105, MIA 94 — Cleveland beat Miami 105-94, an 11-point margin that covers -5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. North Dakota State minus 3 versus Indiana State. How you feeling this one, Lee? I think North Dakota State is a team that's going to go on a run here. So they're 6-4, but they played high-level competition. You know, they lost in November at UNLV by two, at Arizona, at Creighton. Those are two top 10, top 15 teams. And then at Montana State, who people don't realize is really good. So they righted the ship last game against Cal State Northridge at home. This is where they do their best work is at home. So, you know, they've won every single game at home this year. Historically, one of the toughest places to play. Indiana State, some people will look at their record and say, oh, they beat Miami of Ohio in their last game by one. Yeah, but it was at home. On the road, they've already lost to Loyal Illinois. They already lost at Ball State, and we're talking bad by 22. Lost to a New Mexico State and an Oklahoma team, which are nothing special this year. So I see Indiana State here going on the road. They'll have problems. I see this North Dakota State team, better rebounding team, better team defensively, and that home court edge. I'm going to lay the small spot here. Level one lock, North Dakota State over Indiana State.”
NDSU 77, INST 70 — North Dakota State beat Indiana State 77-70, a 7-point margin that covers -3 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. the Cardinals minus two and a half versus the Rams. Break it down for us, Lee. So I like betting on teams when star players are finally healthy, not the first game back. And now Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins have been back a couple games. They hooked up early. I think it was like three times in the first half last week, one for a touchdown. And then they kind of, you know, went through the motions. They had a blowout win. But I think now they'll turn it on, those two guys here. I'm not completely sold here on Matthew Stafford in this offense. So you're watching OBJ still does not look like he's in sync with Stafford. Stafford's thrown five interceptions during this losing streak here. And this Arizona defense here, they do a really good job getting turnovers. Number five in takeaways. I just think that Murray's running and throwing is going to keep the Rams here off balance here with his legs and his arm here. And they just have playmakers all over the field here. So, you know, the only thing that scares me, to be quite honest with you, Cliff Kingsbury, their coach, you know, just like some of these coaches yesterday that I thought made mistakes, that Cleveland almost blew the game. Cincinnati probably blew the game, didn't attack enough in overtime. So coaching is important, but it will be a paramount sports selection. So on the third day of Betmus, we're going to go with the Arizona Cardinals minus the two and a half over the L.A. Rams.”
LAR 30, ARI 23 — The Rams beat Arizona 30-23; the Cardinals lost outright, busting the -2.5 spread (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one is Garbrandt minus 145 versus don't blink. But in the bet a little, win a lot, don't blink plus 300 for a KO or a TKO. So break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so I think I found something here. Cody Garbrandt, really top-level fighter. You know, he's been a champion, and he's decided to go down. And he can fight in both classes. He's generally a bantamweight. He's going to move down to flyweight, and I think he thinks he can just move down and take care of an opponent and get the job done and move on. So he is going to fight a guy named Kai Carr of France. No, he's not from France. He's from New Zealand. And the kid's got some power, and I think he's just starting to come into his own. So Cody Garbrandt is a slight favorite, but he's not a smart fighter, makes mistakes in the ring. I don't know what kind of student he was when he was in school or anything, but I can just tell you I watch the way he moves, and some of the things he does are not smart. And he likes to bang. Three of his four losses were by KO and TKO. And Kaikara France has been in against some of the very best, been against the top fighters also. He's been up against Brandon Moreno, who's the champion. Didn't lose the decision, but I think he's got a chance to knock him out here. I'm going to take a flyer here on Don't Blink. Kaikara, Don't Blink, France. plus $300 for every $100 you wager. So you turn in, if you're in Vegas, you put $100 down, you're going to get back $400. $100 will be your wager plus another $300. By KO, by TKO, bet a little, win a whole lot.”
Kai Kara-France defeated Cody Garbrandt by TKO (punches) in round 1 (3:21) at UFC 269 on December 11, 2021 (Wikipedia).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Panthers and Coyotes, minus 1.5 goals, minus 120. Lee, thoughts on this one? Yeah, so when you look at this game, You have to wonder how the Arizona Coyotes could keep this one even remotely close. The only way I think is if their goalie, Scott Wedgwood, comes in and has one of those nights in goal where he's seeing every shot. He's getting lucky bounces, and his defense is out front helping him. We call that basically standing on your head when you repel 35, 40 shots. I mean, this might be a game where he faces 40-plus shots. But even then, I don't know how he's going to do it. The Panthers, they just got Alexander Barkoff, their captain, back in the lineup. They're first in the NHL in scoring chances per game and expected goals per game. And I think they have a lot of motivation coming to this one. They have not won a road game, even though they have a sterling record. They haven't won a road game since October 29th at Detroit. But if you look back at who they've lost to, all playoff teams, Tampa, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and Washington. So when you finally get a game like this one, things are going to open up, I think. They're going to hold possession for a majority of the game. You're going to break some guys' cold streaks here and put up some goals. So even if Wedgwood keeps Arizona in this one I don see the Coyotes putting up much offense on Sergio Bobrovsky here on the other end of the ice I think we looking at a 4 or 5 final here The Arizona Coyotes are the team, though. Remember we had that level 5 lock on the under for the season. So I think they go down in flames yet again tonight. Lay the 1.5 goals here, minus 120 here. Florida Panthers blowout special.”
FLA 3, ARI 1 — Florida beat Arizona 3-1, covering -1.5 (ESPN).
“Cleveland minus 2.5. The BetOnline.ag line for this one. Cleveland minus 2.5 versus the Ravens. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So, you know, even from the start of the year, I didn't think Cleveland was, you know, all that. But I just think that they're in a much better shape than Baltimore. I'm watching Baltimore and the injuries. You know, they lost their top three running backs before the season started, which was almost unheard of. Lamar Jackson throwing the football, just not accurate. I think he's got to get the right quarterback coach or offensive coordinator for next year. Last year, they ran the ball. And they should do it even with these backup running backs. Their main weapon is Amar Jackson running the football. I know maybe they want to save his career and then extend his career as long as possible. But last year they were number one running the ball 55% of the time. This year they're down to number 10, running only 45% of the time here. And you're watching his passing. He's got Mark Andrews. He's maybe the fifth, sixth best tight end. But, you know, Brown, downtown Brown, he's not the guy that's going to put you over the top here. So look what they're scoring here. Last four games, 10, 16, 16, and 19 points. I think Cleveland's going to have success against Baltimore's defense without Humphrey, who's gone for the year. The secondary's terrible for Baltimore. So even though Baker Mayfield not 100%, great scheduling situation here for Cleveland. They lose two weeks ago, 16-10 versus the Ravens and Baltimore. Get a bye week, come back and face the same team. whereas Baltimore had to play last week. So sometimes you've got to take advantage of the schedule here. We're going to go with a level two lock. That's right, level two lock. Cleveland Browns minus two and a half over Baltimore.”
CLE 24, BAL 22 — Cleveland beat Baltimore only 24-22, a 2-point margin that falls short of the -2.5 spread (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Memphis minus 11 versus Murray State. How are you feeling this one, Lee? Okay, so this is the toughest game Murray State has faced this year. Let's be honest about that. But they did play Middle Tennessee State, which is a decent opponent. and they won on Saturday, 93-87. They can score. Kevin Brown, this kid is lighting it up from three-point range, shooting a stellar 45.5% from three-point land. Junior guard averaging at least 15 points in six of the eight games this year. K.J. Williams, he's also connected on more than 50% of his shots, and he's averaging 17.8, so they can score. And then on the other side here, you've got a Memphis team, and they're struggling. They've lost the last three games. They were a favorite, and they lost on the road to Ole Miss. And some people think, oh, they'll come back and they'll get their mojo. But Imani Bates, their freshman, who they thought was going to be the guy, get him over the hump, freshman forward, he is averaging 11.5 points per game, but only 38.5% from the field. I don't think that's good enough here. Both these two teams can score. I just think it's too much to lay 11 points here at home against a team that's hitting over 51% from the field are the racers here. So we're going to go here with Murray State plus 11 points. Second day of Bet-Miss selection.”
Murray State 74, Memphis 72 — Murray State beat Memphis 74-72 outright as an 11-point underdog (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Texas, minus 1.5 for Seton Hall. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, and Seton Hall is ranked in the top 25, 23rd in a couple of the polls. I'm seeing 6 or 7 for Texas, but I think Texas is overranked right now. They haven't beaten anyone. Yeah, they lost to Gonzaga, but they played nobody. I mean, these are nobodies, and I just don't see them coming together just yet. So they have a bunch of transfers. The Seton Hall team, you know, they can play some really good defense. Texas, they want to slow down the game. Seton Hall, they want to get up and down the floor, on the home floor. Usually the familiarity, shooting your own arena. certainly will help you here. So defense, Seton Hall, they have a 7'2 center. And you just can't practice playing against a 7'2 center. So he averages almost three blocks a game. I think he's at 2.9 blocks per game. Pirates are 4-3 against the spread this year. And 48th in the nation adjusted offense here, also averaging 82.5 points per game, which is 26 in the country, shooting 33.8 from three-point land here, and just think that they're going to control the paint here. So I think Texas might end up being a good team. I don't think they're there yet. So when you don play anyone except for one decent team which was Gonzaga maybe one of the top two or three teams in the country I think it hurts you So we going with Seton Hall here plus one and a half”
Seton Hall 64, Texas 60 — Seton Hall beat Texas 64-60 outright, covering as a 1.5-point underdog (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Packers minus 12.5 versus the Bears. Break this one down for us, Lee. Well, I still think he owns them, and he might for as long as he plays a green. But I don't see the tide turning here at all. So the Bears don't play well after a loss. 7-16 against the spread after a loss. Their rookie quarterback, who I think is going to be good, really good Justin Fields. He's not ready for this. First time going into Green Bay. And how about the Chicago coaching staff and Matt Nagy saying that Andy Dalton presented the best chance to win option last week. Well, after tossing four interceptions, I have a feeling he's going to be going with Justin Fields here. Their defense is ravaged with injuries. Chicago, their best players will not be playing on injury reserve here. And how about the Packers? Nine and three off of a bye. here. I think they win this game here big. And here's a stat that I found interesting. How can you win by double digits? Well, you got to have receivers after they catch the ball, do something with it. Green Bay receivers, number three in yards after catch this year, 1,738 yards. That means they're getting open, they're getting separation, and once they catch the ball, they're making something happen. The Bears receivers, Dead last, number 32, 819. Green Bay here, blowout special. Get it early. This game might even close close to 14 points here. Green Bay, 38-14 over Chicago.”
GB 45, CHI 30 — Green Bay beat Chicago 45-30; Packers moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line. Over six goals, minus 105. Kraken versus the Jets. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, we have tier Qs. We have another two teams tonight that are searching for just average, not good, just average goaltending to get their season turned around. We've talked about Seattle already. They got off to an awful start at the beginning of the year, both offensively and defensively. And now they started to get some shooting luck here on the offensive side of things here So they creeping towards the top of the league in goals per game expected goals and shooting percentage but they still can get a savior They signed Philip Grubauer, and they gave him a $35 million contract in the offseason. He's been one of the worst goalies in the league in his last start. He gave up three goals in the first five minutes of the game and got pulled. He's a disaster right now for the Kraken. And then there's the Winnipeg Jets. They started off hot. They've cooled off in the last two weeks. The Jets are starting to have the same problem the Kraken have because they can't get a save either. Since Winnipeg went on this run, they've gone 3-7 in the last 10. Their save percentage has dropped now to just 9-0-6, which doesn't happen often with this team here in this franchise. I wouldn't be surprised if they give up three or four goals tonight here. The over, also 11-0-1 in Seattle's 12 games so far this season. against teams with losing records. So I just see this here. Even if Seattle grabs a lead, I think they're not going to sit on it here. We're going here with the over six total goals, minus 105, in the Seattle-Winnipeg game here.”
WPG 3, SEA 0 — Winnipeg beat Seattle 3-0; only 3 combined goals fell well under the Over 6 total (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live. We're going to roll under 42.5 points for the Browns and Ravens. Go ahead. Give us the details on this one, Lee. Okay, so Baltimore offense is stuck in the mud right now. How bad is it? Well, their last six games, only once had they been over 20 points. That was against Minnesota. when Minnesota was beaten up, and they lost their best offensive lineman, Stanley. And their guy that rotates, they plug and play him. I mean, Patrick McCrory, a lot of people don't know the name, but really good. He's a game-time decision. They just don't have the weapons at receiver. When your best receiver is your tight end, and he's not Gronk. He's not Kelsey. He's not Kittle. I think Andrews is good, but I don't think he's a game-breaker here. I just I'm watching Jackson and it's just not good and then on the other side you know let's look at Cleveland so you think of Cleveland as this you know powerhouse offense but they just don't have the receivers anymore nothing no game breakers here we know Baker Mayfield's not 100% they going to run the football well the last eight games just one time get this above 17 points So I think you going to have both teams running the ball a lot I could see like a 17 game maybe 20 I going big here Level 2 lock, under 42.5 in the Cleveland-Baltimore game.”
CLE 24, BAL 22 — Cleveland beat Baltimore 24-22; the 46-point combined total exceeded the Under 42.5 (ESPN).
- Pittsburgh Steelers +9
- Under 49.5
“This is how we're going to roll with the first day of BetMist, betonline.ag line. Lee, you're actually going to roll with a two-team six-point teaser. Pittsburgh plus nine under 49.5 versus Minnesota. Go ahead and break that one down for us. Yeah, so this game is going to my clients here. And why am I going with this game here? You have two teams that play close games. Let's look at Pittsburgh first. So Pittsburgh, since the game against Green Bay week four, they won by eight. They won by three, five, two, had a tie game against Detroit, lost by four. Then there's the outlier. They lost 41-10 to Cincinnati. And then last week they beat Baltimore by one point. Then you look at Minnesota. I mean, their last eight games, they have won or lost by eight points or less here. So I think this is a one possession game. Both these two teams, very, very equal. There's even some injuries on the Vikings side. Dalvin Cook, game time decision. You got to listen to Locked On Vikings today. Listen to Luke Braun. He'll probably give you an update. It looks like he might try to play. He could go out early in the game. So I'm going to take Pittsburgh and move them from three up to nine, take Pittsburgh plus nine and take the total here. The total on this game is, is I think it's fair. I mean, it's sitting at, you know, 43 and a half, 44. I'm going to move it all the way up to 49 and a half and play under. I think both these two offenses, especially with the injuries, Adam Thielen is out, ruled out for this game. And Dalvin Cook, game time decision. If he doesn't play or he goes out in the game, they don't have a running back. They don't have a second receiver. Pittsburgh, they already lost their best receiver for the year in Juju Smith-Schuster. Their offensive line isn't great. So we'll go with Pittsburgh here, plus nine and under 49 and a half. It's our first day of Betmus selection.”
MIN 36, PIT 28 — Minnesota beat Pittsburgh 36-28; the Steelers' 8-point loss covered the teased +9, but the 64-point combined total busted the teased Under 49.5, so the two-leg teaser loses (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. 24th ranked BYU, minus seven versus Utah State. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Well, it is a rivalry, a huge rivalry. The public doesn't really understand the rivalry in the state of Utah. Utah and BYU are big rivals, but Utah State and BYU are huge rivals also. And maybe even biggest for Utah State here. And why do I say that? They always feel like of the three teams, three colleges, like the stepchild. So they get to a different level. But their basketball program has had a lot of success. And they're coming off a rare loss. And they lost to a really good St. Mary's team, 60-58. And 6-2 on the season, this is a big game for them. So I think that they're going to be ready. There was like a quietness from what I heard. I don't listen to too many press conferences. But the coach said afterwards it was eerily quiet. They realized that they just didn't play well. So they just, I think they have all the elements. They have a really good team here. They just let that game slip away here. They have this kid named Justin Bean. I mean, and that game, he had 19 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, and 4 steals. So the problem was, just couldn't make anything from outside. And a good team usually rebounds. They were 3 for 15 from 3-point range. They even turned the ball over 14 times. So they've been strong against the spread, five and two against the spread. I think it's too many points here in a rivalry game. I'll pick the seven points. I think this game goes down to the wire. They might even win out right here. Wrong team favorite here, Utah State over BYU tonight.”
BYU 82, Utah State 71 — BYU beat Utah State 82-71; Utah State lost by 11, busting the +7 spread pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Cowboys minus 4 versus the Washington football team. How are you feeling this one, Lee? Okay, so I think Dallas is ready to go on a big-time run. They have kind of been, you know, just muddling around. You know, they've had some injuries, some COVID cases, and now they're going to have all three of their studs. And we're talking about Parsons, Lawrence, and Gregory. I don't know of any team in the NFL that has three studs that can get after the passer. So they'll finally all be playing together. And on the other side, Washington, Chase Young and Montez Sweat, they done for the season I mean they lost their best safety Landon Collins He done with a foot injury Logan Thomas tight end he kind of their safety valve their guy in the red zone He may not be able to play because of a knee injury. They dominated Washington play. I mean, you look at time of possession, like 44 and 33 minutes the last two games, but only scoring 17 points in both games here. I think Dallas is ready for a big-time role. I think they're one of the top three or four teams in the NFL. I think they're just looking to put it together. Now both of their top receivers are back, back from COVID, back from injuries. I think Dallas rolls here. I'm laying the four here. I think they win this game something like 30-14. I'm going to call this my blowout special Dallas over Washington on Saturday.”
Dallas 27, Washington 20 — The Cowboys beat Washington 27-20; Dallas's 7-point win covers the -4 spread pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll over 6 goals, minus 115. Over 6 goals, minus 115 in the Rangers versus Avalanche. Lee, break this one down for us. You got it right. Two really good teams but we got two backup goalies So Colorado starter out with a back injury So they starting a young kid named Justice Anunan Second career game recent draft pick I think he's going to work out, but he gave up five goals to the Flyers, the Philadelphia Flyers, whose offense is horrendous. And it's not like his defense is helping him much either. Colorado ranks 27th in the NHL in goals allowed per game with just 25th ranked power play. There's far too much talent on the Rangers roster to allow a young backup goalie to be stranded like Colorado has done to their goalies all season. What the Avalanche do, though, is they put up some goals, a lot of goals. Over the last 12 games, which is a pretty large sample size in hockey, they're averaging over, not like three and a half, four, over five goals per game, including 19 of the last four road games. They're going to go get a backup goaltender in this game here. New York starter suffered a knee injury the other day. Both of these teams rank near the top in the league in goals, expected goals, and their ability to convert on high danger opportunities. If neither team can get a save from their backup goalie tonight, this could get uglier. We're talking about a 6-5, maybe even a 7-6 final at Madison Square Garden. You heard it first here. Level 3 lock out of nowhere. New York Rangers and Colorado Avalanche over six goals.”
Colorado 7, New York 3 — The Avalanche beat the Rangers 7-3; the combined 10 goals clears the over-6 total pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag. Line for this one. Tech plus four versus Tennessee. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so the public is going to bet Tennessee. I can tell you that right now. Why? Because they're ranked, and they're ranked pretty darn high, and they beat Colorado on Saturday at Colorado. They've also beaten North Carolina. The public will just scroll over that, and they'll say, oh, their only loss was Villanova. So then you have a Texas Tech team. They had won every game in November, blown out everyone. No game was even close. I think every game was at least a 15 to 40-point winner. They lost their first game, and they lost last Wednesday to Providence on the road, 72-68. Just didn't play well. So the public will see a team that's favored by just a couple points. I know how the public bets. and they also set the line, the line makers to trick you. So if they really were a team that's ranked between 10 and 15, Tennessee's ranked 13th in most of the polls, then they should be a six, seven, eight point favorite against Texas Tech. But I'm telling you right now, Texas Tech is going to be a top 10, 15 team, probably in the next three to four weeks. They have a kid named Terrence Shannon Jr. It's going to be a star. The junior guard is scoring at least 15 points in all four games, averaging 16.5 points, shooting 49% from the field. They've got a bunch of guys that just light it up. Kevin McCuller, guy averaging 14 points a game. Now, Bryson Williams has been a little inconsistent. Senior forward, only 13 points per game and a little over 5.5 rebounds. But I expect him to be up for the challenge here. You look at some of the numbers here, and they're 20th in the country, and Ken Palmoy is here, college basketball ratings. I think that they just have too many shooters here, and college basketball is about shooters. So take nothing away from the Tennessee Volunteers here. Kennedy Chandler can dominate some games here. The highly-tied freshman is going to have a nice year, But bottom line, the game is being played at Madison Square Garden. I mean, no bigger venue in college basketball. I just think that the true freshman here is going to have some problems here. I like Texas Tech here. I'm taking the points here. The wrong team is favored.”
Texas Tech 57, Tennessee 52 — Texas Tech beat Tennessee 57-52 in overtime; Tech won outright as a 4-point underdog, covering the +4 spread pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Anaheim Ducks money line minus 108 versus Sabres Thoughts on this one Lee Yeah so Anaheim Ducks here I looking at this team and they on the back end of a back So they're traveling from Washington, D.C. to Buffalo, and we were in Buffalo last night for our big win, and not exactly a destination of choice here for even a hockey team, but the game is obviously being played indoors here. But let's not pretend that these teams are even remotely on the same level of play right now. Anaheim has lost their last couple games. They're still averaging four goals per game in their last six games. And they've kept things close against some real cup contenders. Then let's look at the goaltending matchup here. Anthony Sturotz, the Ducks here backup, who is going to start this game. Hardly a backup. Right now, 3-2-1 on the season, a 9-20 save percentage, and he's won his last three starts. Buffalo, on the other hand, they can't get a save if the season depended on it right now. They're 29th in the NHL save percentage. They've given up at least five goals or more in seven of the last nine games. They've signed a ton of older veteran goalies to league minimum contracts this season just to get them through the year. I don't think it's going to pay off anytime soon. I'm predicting a 4-1 or 5-1 final here. Anaheim Ducks blow out the Buffalo Sabres. There's going to be misery in Buffalo two nights in a row here. Blowout special. Anaheim Ducks money line minus 108.”
Anaheim 2, Buffalo 0 — The Ducks shut out the Sabres 2-0; Anaheim won outright, covering the -108 moneyline pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Brooklyn minus three and a half versus the Dallas Mavericks. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so a lot of people look at the last game and they'll say, Oh, Brooklyn lost at home to Chicago. Maybe I don't want to back them. It was a fluke. I mean, they just got cold. And sometimes you relax and Chicago got hot. after Brooklyn had a pretty big lead, but veteran teams come back. And before that, they had beaten Minnesota by five and pretty much dominated that game. In fact they won a total right now of six of the last eight games So they playing really well On the other side Dallas Mavericks are really stumbling They lost to Memphis at home 97 Lost at home to New Orleans 107 And now all of a sudden, injuries. And this is a team that just isn't real deep. Luka Dundik, he missed the last game. He probably will play, but you never know with an ankle injury. Tim Hardaway, he's got a knee injury. Maybe a go. This is questionable. Porzingis, he's listed as probably playing, but missed the last two games. You want to play him on the first game back. So you're going to be able to get a Brooklyn Nets team here at a small number. And people think of them as being this team that's selfish. Really not that way. They share the ball extremely well this year. So they're 12th in the league in scoring, usually in the top five, top six. but they are right now fifth in the league in assists at 25.5. And they have some other guys doing the dirty work here. And Marcus Aldridge averaging almost 14 points per game. Patty Mills coming off the bench, heating it up. So, yeah, I think Dallas is a good team. I think Brooklyn is just a different level playing better. And Dallas is beat up in a couple guys. You might get one of those big three for Dallas who may not even play. Get on it early here. Level two lock. Dallas Mavericks are going down here. Brooklyn Nets minus the three and a half.”
Brooklyn 102, Dallas 99 — Brooklyn beat Dallas 102-99; the Nets' 3-point win falls short of the -3.5 spread, busting the pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Clippers minus 2.5 versus Trailblazers. Thoughts on this one? Oh, late-night action here. So you got one team that's starting to play really well, and that's the L.A. Clippers. You have another team. You talk about struggling. There's a different level. So the last game, and they're without Damian Little on Saturday night. At home, they lost to Boston 145-117. On Thursday night at home, San Antonio came in and won 114-83. So now, I don't know if there's any end in sight here. This is a team that can't stop teams from shooting threes. In fact, they're ranked 28th in the league. So they are allowing almost 39% three-point land. They just also can't protect the pain here very well. They're last in the league in defense. C.J. McCollum, questionable, got a rib issue. I think he'll play, but he's certainly going to be affected offensively and defensively here. And the team just looks like they're just going through the motions here this could go on for another week or two until they get Lillard back. So people don't realize this. I like Clippers. Top-rated defense here. So the last time that they came into Portland, what happened? Well, they lost the Clippers. And so I just think that they're going to be ready for this game. Hey, there's no mercy here in the Western Conference. I like the Clippers here. Just laying a couple points here.”
LA Clippers 102, Portland 90 — The Clippers beat the Trail Blazers 102-90; LA's 12-point win covers the -2.5 spread pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Iowa minus three versus Illinois. What are you feeling? How are you feeling this one, Lee? Yeah, two of the better teams in the Big Ten here. And I expect both these two teams to, you know, if they're not in the top 25 right now, Iowa isn't, but they'll, I think, eventually be there. So what happened early on in the season, Kofi Cockhorn had a three suspension and they missed him And he came back even in the first game they weren the same They starting to get into their groove now But here the problem I think they going to be able to score inside But, you know, it's all about scoring now from the outside. And that's Iowa's game here. They have some guys that can knock down threes here. So Iowa's right in there with number two, Purdue. They were getting 15 and up points. Only lost 77 to 70 in that game here. They have a really good bench scoring. They're almost 38% on their threes. In fact, right now, almost 57% on their two-pointers so far this year. So, too many weapons here. Kagan Murray, he leads Iowa, scoring 24.6 points per game, 8.9 rebounds here. The McCaffrey boys, Patrick and Fran, these guys, I mean, they're bombers. and just think that this team's starting to really get into a groove here. So when you've got a team that's almost hitting 40% of threes playing at home, I'll lay the small spot here. Level one lock, Iowa Hawkeyes over the Illinois fight in Illini.”
Illinois 87, Iowa 83 — Illinois beat Iowa 87-83; Iowa lost outright, busting the -3 spread pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Buffalo minus three versus the Patriots. How are you feeling this one, Lee? Okay, so the first thing I did here, whenever you get, let's say, like late October early November and on in Buffalo check the weather it's gonna be bad I mean it gonna be anywhere from 32 to 37 degrees windy between 20 and 30 miles per hour so if you liked the under well you late to the party It was 46 It now 41 points So probably a lean to the under in weather conditions like that. Both teams are going to have to run the ball a lot more. But I think that this makes it an even stronger play here for New England. So people probably play Buffalo, figure, hey, the home underdog, only laying three points, but New England runs the ball better. They stop the run better. And just think that Mac Jones is doing a great job right now not turning the ball over. Only two interceptions. And look at his counterpart, Josh Allen. Yep, he's thrown eight touchdowns the last four games, but also has eight interceptions. And he's fumbled the ball four times this year. And if there is some throwing to the game, Buffalo, they lost their star cornerback, Darius White. he's gone for the year so he used to lock down half of the field he's not there um i'm just watching this buffalo offensive line they returned everyone from last year just not the same so um new england wins this game they've got a one game lead headed uh to the bye week so i like new england here i'm going to take the three points here um this can be my level two lock”
New England 14, Buffalo 10 — The Patriots beat the Bills 14-10; New England's 4-point win covers the +3 spread pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. KC minus 10 versus Denver. Sounds like a lot of points there, Lee. What's your thoughts on this one? Yeah, so everyone thought, in fact, up until a couple weeks ago, They're like, oh, they should have drafted Mac Jones. The Broncos should have done this. They should have done that with their draft picks. Well, look at them now. Patrick Sertain, what has he done? Well, had two interceptions last week, player of the game for Denver. Their second pick, what did they do? They picked Javante Williams from North Carolina. People are like, well, they already have a running back. Well, they have a running back that gets injured all the time. I think Williams is the home run hitter, running and catching the football. I love both picks here. So I think this is a team coming to their own. They're getting back one of their best defensive players. Got him back last week. They playing good football Teddy Bridgewater may not look pretty just gets the job done He wins a lot I think Kansas City might win the game 30 to 24 but I taking the double digit points here in Denver”
Kansas City 22, Denver 9 — The Chiefs beat the Broncos 22-9; Denver lost by 13, busting the +10 spread pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Alonzo Atomic Mennefield minus 140 versus William Nightmare Knight. Thoughts on that one, Lee? So I think this is going to be a stand-up fight here between Mennefield and Knight. Mennefield used to gas out a lot. these are two guys who really have not fought a whole lot each three and four fights in the UFC but I think Mennefield just getting better and better each fight his cardio is getting better I think he's like I said got better stand up here and Knight struggles versus bigger and opponents that have better reach and longer reaches so I think Mennefield's the right side here lay the 140 here blowout special”
William Knight defeated Alonzo Menifield by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo; Menifield lost outright, busting the -140 moneyline pick (UFC.com official results). (William Knight def. Alonzo Menifield, unanimous decision)
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Wells minus 160 versus Matthews. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, the first thing I thought of was the Dave Matthews fan, but you're right. I mean, there were so many Matthews that played in the NFL. That family could have had an offense or a defense. They had so many brothers, sisters, relatives. I mean, who knows? went on and on never stopped so i think wells just has too much power here he's insane power here um think matthews is decent i just think it's a different level might even see a knockout here i'm laying the 160 jeremiah wells uh over jake matthews”
The Jeremiah Wells vs. Jake Matthews bout at UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo was scrapped hours before the event after one of Wells's cornermen tested positive for COVID-19, so the pick never happened (Wikipedia, citing event reporting).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Texas is minus 26.5 versus UT Rio Grande Valley. Lee, give us the details. This is bet a little, win a lot. So there's a couple layers to this game. And normally I don't play high line games because a lot of times it comes down to the last couple minutes when you've got the scrubs coming in, teams leading by 20, 25 points. But I can make a strong case here to play UT Rio Grande Valley in all the points. So they actually average more points per game. And I know, okay, Rio Grande Valley's only played eight games and Texas has played six, but they're outscoring them by more than two points per game. They actually out-rebound Texas by two a game here. So this is a team that, I mean, both teams, almost all transfers, I mean, made up of transfers. So it takes a little while to gel. UT Rio Grande Valley, they've scored at least 80 points four times this year. Texas only once here. So I think Texas wins this game, but I can see something like an 82-70 game here. So I'm going to take the 26.5 points here, bet a little, win a whole lot.”
Texas 88, UT Rio Grande Valley 58 — No. 7 Texas beat UT Rio Grande Valley 88-58; the 30-point margin exceeds the 26.5-point spread, busting the UTRGV +26.5 pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Western Kentucky minus three and a half versus UTSA, the Roadrunners. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So you're going to love this name, Bailey Zappi. Everyone talks about great names, but he is one of the best nicknames and the best names we've seen in college football. This is a kid that, I mean, transferred from a Division II school, transferred with, I think, three of his receivers to Western Kentucky and thrown for, how about this, almost 5,000 yards, 4,993 yards. First pass completion will probably go over that 5 mark He has 52 touchdowns just nine interceptions Boy they been on a roll since the middle of the season 6 against the spread run here And hey I was back in UTSA but all of a sudden they hit the wall last week against North Texas. They got run all over. They were shredded for 340 rushing yards. Their quarterback, Harris, who had looked good, just four for 14 last week. Just looked out of sync here. I like Western Kentucky here. Even on the road in San Antonio, I'm laying the three and a half here. I think they get the job done. Easy winner here. I think this is a game that people need to pay mention to. Everyone's looking at the Pac-12 championship game, Conference USA championship game. It's the game I like the most tonight. Boom. And what level lock are we talking here? We're going to go with a level two lock here.”
UTSA 49, Western Kentucky 41 — UTSA beat Western Kentucky 49-41 in the Conference USA Championship Game; WKU lost outright, busting the -3.5 spread pick (Wikipedia, citing the ESPN box score, gameId 401282156).
“betonline.ag live for this one the Predators money line plus 110 versus the Bruins thoughts on this one Lee yeah so the Boston Bruins just are not the same team they used to be This was a perennial cup contender that played with a lot of physicality and just got some great goaltending over the years. I mean, Tukorask, I mean, here's a guy, I mean, he would be, I think the lowest finish in 12 years was 15th That it goaltending They ranked 29th in the NHL in save percentage so far this year since he left And you also have to look at how this team's done on the road. They're 4-4 away from Boston, and their road wins have come against Buffalo Sabres twice, New Jersey Devils and the Philadelphia Flyers. None of those four wins really is going to impress anybody. Nashville, on the other hand, they picked up things offensively quite a bit. And you can't just look at the first couple weeks and base your decisions on that. But Flip Forsberg scored four goals. That's right, four goals in their last game against Columbus. They're 6-1 of the last seven home games now. Their top two lines are really producing a ton of points for them. And their power play, all of a sudden, top ten in the NHL. So they haven't been that high in many years. So Boston has a big matchup coming up against the Tampa Bay Lightning after this one. And I don't think they're going to get things going here on the road. I like the Preds here. I think the Predators win 5-3. So what we're going to go here with, wrong team favorite, Nashville Predators, money line outright.”
Boston 2, Nashville 0 — The Bruins shut out the Predators 2-0; Nashville lost outright, busting the plus-110 moneyline pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Bulls minus two versus the Knicks. Go on and give us the details on this one, Lee. Yeah, so Chicago really revamped their team. I like what they did in the offseason. You know, they end up adding Lonzo Ball, and Lonzo Ball is one of these guys that shares the ball. On the floor for almost 35 minutes, averaging over five rebounds a game. He rebounds, like I said, five and almost five assists. So, you know, he's shooting almost 43%. Check this out. 44.4% from three-point land. And then Zach Levine, he's always done well for them the last couple years. He's picked it up. He's averaging 25 points a game. They add DeMar DeRozan. So they can't just key on the top two guys. He's averaging 25.9 points per game. So they got three big-time scores in the backcourt. And then Vukovic, I mean, here's a guy center. I mean, this guy's getting it done. He's averaging 11 rebounds a game, and he shares the ball four assists and averaging 14 points. In fact, in the last game, he scored 30 points, 14 rebounds, five assists, and I think he even sold popcorn at halftime. So he got it all done. So they got guys off the bench like Caruso, Alex Cruz. They got him from the Lakers. He's putting in the minutes. He's doing the dirty work. I mean, last game in 25 minutes he had seven assists. They got Derek Jones. He's been all around. He was with the heat. He was with the Trailblazers. Now, what's going on with the Knicks? And you know Thibodeau will try to get his team up facing his old team, but they ended up moving Kemba Walker out of the entire rotation. So, just wasn't working here And in crunch time they can get baskets I mean close games this is not where they excel and this is where Chicago excels Chicago one of these teams 12th in the league in scoring offense over 109 points per game. So, like I said, they just share the ball here, and I just think this is a great situational play here. Watching the Knicks just not moving the ball around enough, can't make the stops when they need to. Lay the two points here on the road here. Blow out special. Chicago Bulls over the New York Knicks.”
Chicago 119, New York 115 — The Bulls beat the Knicks 119-115; Chicago's 4-point win covers the -2 spread pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Cowboys minus five versus Saints. How are you feeling about this one, Lee? I feel pretty good. I mean, Dallas, I've been riding them early, but you just saw as soon as they lost their top two receivers, you just can't get things done in the NFL with spare parts. And now C.D. Lamb is back. Murray Cooper is back for this game. They are you know finally all of a sudden getting healthy So Demarcus Lawrence back one of the best pass rushers He finally back Randy Gregory might be back in a week or two So I think we're going to see the old Cowboys again. I just think Dak Prescott, you know, throwing the third and fourth guys, they just couldn't get the separation. They were dropping balls. You know, just they're also, you're not used to working with these guys. You know, so even though they throw to them, just you can't get the type of chemistry you see. And that's the problem here for New Orleans. They have a bunch of spare parts. I don't think I'd be shocked if Alvin Kamar plays in this game. So I think we're going to see Mark Ingram. He's okay. You know, he's a second, third string back. He's not a starter. You know, without Thomas, who's been gone all year, you see their receivers. They're just not getting the job done. They might be without their two best offensive linemen here. Finally, soft-tossing Trevor Seaman. He's out, Taysom Hill's in. Yeah, he can make a few plays with his legs, you know, that Seaman can. I think that's what they're looking for. They're looking for a spark here, but they're averaging just 3.2 points in the first half of the last four games here. So I think Dallas is the right side here. I think they pull away. I think they win this game here 28-14. Yeah, and the Dallas Cowboys, they need a victory. They need a victory in a major way. Losers are three out of the last four games, and this feels like their get-right game, right? It feels like this is the game. Oh, yeah. They'll get it done on national TV. Like I said, I don't see where New Orleans is going to get the points. Maybe 12, 10, 12, 13, 14 points with this offense in Hill. Not a good enough passer. Yeah, he can make some things happen scrambling around. But sooner or later, good defenses can expose you, and Dallas' pass rush is going to be back tonight. That's the lock of the day. What level lock we got? Level 2 lock.”
Dallas 27, New Orleans 17 — The Cowboys beat the Saints 27-17; Dallas's 10-point win covers the -5 spread pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. UNLV plus 7, and the money line is plus 250. Break this one down for us, Lee. Boy, UNLV has played a tough schedule. I mean, they've had to play the gauntlet. And that's part of the reason why you're seeing a high line here. They haven't beaten anyone good, But when you play teams, you know, that are in the top 10, top 15, like UCLA, like Michigan, things usually aren't going to go well. I think this team's going to get better and better. They're number 320 right now, 320 in effective field goal percentage out of about 350 teams. So why? Playing some great and some talented teams. So I expect them to really improve here. You know SMU is good but I just think UNLV you know is going to shoot better from the three line And first road game I think they excited here And sometimes these lines are off, you know, three, four, five points. This line started at five, five and a half. It's up to seven. So we're not going to take the seven. We're going to take UNLV here plus 250 on the money line.”
SMU 83, UNLV 64 — SMU beat UNLV 83-64 at Moody Coliseum; UNLV lost outright, busting the plus-250 moneyline pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one, Nebraska plus seven. The money line is plus 245. Break this one down for us, Lee. Another team that, you know, has not played a road game, I don't think people really have a good beat on them. And it's Nebraska. This team can score. So, you know, I think they're going to play a team that's pretty much similar to them. So the public is going to be on NC State. It's, you know, another Big Ten and ACC challenge here. And I like the talent here, Aaron, what I'm seeing in Nebraska. So, you know, the Wolfpack have Darion Sebron. He's good. But I just don't see him keeping it up against a team that actually might be more athletic than they are. And right now they're 100th right now in the rankings, college basketball, Ken Pomeroy's college basketball ratings. And those things that by midseason, yeah, they're usually true to form. But I just think that they're off here. So I like the fact that you get another team that's traveling, can score points here. We're going to take them on the money line, plus 245 here, and bet a little, win a whole lot.”
NC State 104, Nebraska 100 — NC State beat Nebraska 104-100 in overtime; Nebraska lost outright, busting the plus-245 moneyline pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Kraken money line plus 105 versus the Red Wings. Give it to us, Lee. Yeah, so I saw them in person Saturday night, and this is a good team. They took a part for it. Just don't make mistakes. They have two really strong goaltenders. I think they're figuring things out in this league with each other on the ice. And they weren't playing hardly in the first few weeks in the league, but they couldn't get a save if their entire season depended on. In fact, first 17 games, their goaltenders were saving just 85% of their shots, dead last in the league by almost five percentage points. If you look at the other possession numbers, they were on the positive side of things here in terms of expected goals, scoring chances, and shot attempts. So now they're starting to figure things out. They're 4-1 on the last five with four of those games coming against cup contenders like the Florida Panthers which I saw in person Carolina Hurricanes Washington Capitals and the Tampa Bay Lightning So they get a goaltender tonight in Thomas Grease who just hasn worked out for Detroit Two good starts to begin the season. Since then, 2-6 with a saved percentage of just .883, which is almost as bad as Seattle's was in the first couple weeks. So I think the wrong team is favored here. The Kraken are going to put up some goals in this one here. wrong team favorite Seattle Kraken Moneyline plus 105.”
Detroit 4, Seattle 3 — The Red Wings beat the Kraken 4-3 in a shootout; Seattle lost, busting the plus-105 moneyline pick (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.ag line for this one. Georgia minus six and a half versus Alabama. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so I want to get this in now. I think this line is going to go up to seven, may even close, possibly at seven and a half. And, hey, Alabama, they've had some great runs. But this is only the second time in 12 years they've been an underdog. So some decent numbers, actually some nice numbers, tied seventh and fifth overall in total offense, while the dogs, believe it or not, the Georgia Bulldogs, are first, third, second, and first in total rushing, total offense, passing and scoring offense. And these aren't their defensive numbers. These are their offensive numbers. They're beating people up front. This Bama team is just not the same here. Bryce Young's even having trouble the last couple games. In fact, they only scored 20 points against LSU in that win. Only scored 22 and three overtimes against Auburn here. And what did Georgia do against these two teams? They're just a different animal. They beat Arkansas, who Bama beat by seven, by 37. They beat Auburn by 24 points. These weren't even games here. So I just think sometimes you just got to look at things are changing. Ohio State had dominated Michigan for a long time in football. So what they are is historical trends. All they are is history. So it's coming to an end here. Georgia has by far the best defense. I think they're actually getting better as the season progresses here. While Alabama, if you've seen them last month, they're getting worse here. Blowout special. Georgia big here, 34-24 over Alabama.”
Alabama 41, Georgia 24 — Alabama beat Georgia 41-24 in the SEC Championship Game; Georgia lost outright, busting the -6.5 spread pick (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Michigan minus two. Versa Tar Heels. What are your thoughts on this one? All right. So we looked good at half last night with Duke. And they just couldn't finish the deal here. We're getting a line here where a team, I think, is undervalued. So why is Michigan only laying two points in this game? Well, they have a 4-2 record. And they lost to Arizona. They lost to Seton Hall by two. But this is a team ranked number 24th right now. I think they're going to end up in the top ten. So you have a former coach and player, Juwan Howard. He's there against North Carolina's Herbert Davis. I think that North Carolina's struggling. I mean, they've just got a bunch of just absolutely spare parts here. So, yeah, they held UNC Asheville to 26% shooting. and 7 for 37 from threes. But they just have a lot of guys just aren't anything here. So they're averaging North Carolina 83 points, but those wins are against nobody's here. This Michigan team I think is going to be special, really, really talented. So they've got players that can do it on both ends of the court here. And Michigan's only problem is they've been turning the ball over. and what is the one thing that North Carolina doesn't do is force turnovers. Third to last. That's right. Third to last out of 350-something teams. So sometimes it's all about the matchup, too, here. Michigan minus two? Oh, not a level one, not a level two. A level three lock here.”
North Carolina 72, Michigan 51 — North Carolina beat Michigan 72-51; Michigan lost outright by 21, busting the -2 spread pick (ESPN box score).
“The Lightning money line, minus 105 versus the Blues. [4:48] Break this one down for us, Lee. [4:50] Yeah, the St. Louis Blues are struggling as of late. [4:52] And not many people were talking about it. [4:54] They're 3-5-2 the last 10 games. [4:57] They're giving up power play goals on 33% of opponents' opportunities, [5:02] and their best players, like Jordan Binghamton, [5:05] are not pulling their end of the rope. [5:08] If you look at Binghamton's numbers this year, it's just not impressive. [5:12] Last 10 games, goaltending for the Blues, just an 8-84 save percentage, [5:18] and Binghamton is averaging over allowing three goals per game at home this year, [5:24] which is shocking. [5:24] he's usually much better at home. [5:27] It's a big reason why they haven't been able to put together a run yet, [5:31] and they have a talent, just things aren't clicking. [5:35] In fact, they're 0-6 in the last six games after a win, [5:39] so they haven't had an actual winning streak since they opened the season 5-0 [5:44] all the way back in October. [5:46] On the other end of things, Tampa Bay coming off of a loss. [5:50] They're 4-0 in their last four after a loss, [5:52] And it's what you would expect from a veteran team that knows how to rebound. [5:57] They have the goaltending advantage here. [5:59] They're playing better hockey in front of their own net. [6:03] I think Tampa wins this one here 4-2.”
TB 3, STL 4 — St. Louis beat Tampa Bay 4-3 in a shootout; Lightning moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“The Kings money line, minus 125 versus the Ducks. [6:44] How you feeling this one, Lee? [6:45] So we all knew, if you follow hockey closely, [6:50] that the Kings were going to be a streaky team this year. [6:52] They have a mix of young kids and veteran players, and their head coach, Todd McClellan, has always had some streaky tendencies also. [7:01] So let's look at what they've done so far. [7:03] They're 20 games into the season. [7:05] They've already had a six-game losing streak, a seven-game winning streak, and then a five-game losing streak. [7:11] Well, they ended their most recent losing streak here in the last game against Ottawa. [7:17] Now they get an Anaheim Duck team that is losing its luster a little bit here. [7:22] So they started out red hot on the offensive side of things, [7:26] but it was clear that they were unsustainable, [7:30] especially in terms of their shooting percentage. [7:33] Last five games, they've only scored 10 goals, [7:35] and they're shooting just 6% in that span. [7:39] I think they've run out of the magic in the foreseeable future, unfortunately. [7:43] I think the Kings got another game where you're going to be getting a lot of [7:46] goals. This isn't going to be a one nothing game. [7:48] I think the Kings win this game here four zero or four one.”
LA 4, ANA 5 — Anaheim beat LA 5-4 in a shootout; Kings moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“the owls minus two versus the [10:40] bobcats how you feeling this one okay so on paper this looks like i mean as even a matchup as you [10:45] can get. Texas State rated [10:48] number 154, according to Ken [10:50] Palm. Rice, right after it, [10:51] number 155. So [10:53] Texas State going here for [10:55] four wins in a row. [10:58] This is a team that can [10:59] shoot the basketball. In fact, averaging [11:02] 75.3 points per [11:03] game, 37th in the nation, [11:06] over 48.8% [11:08] from the field, and they're even making [11:09] 36.6% [11:11] of their three-pointers. But here's the problem. [11:14] They got two guys that can play. [11:15] Caleb Asbury, 6'3", senior guard, and then they've got a forward here named Isaiah Small. [11:22] These two guys can score and play, but they're just not a lot of ball movement. [11:28] So they're bottom 20% here as far as assists. [11:32] So you can have two guys that can score, and I've watched a couple of their games so far, [11:37] against lower-level teams, and that's great. [11:40] But when you face better teams, you just got to make that third, fourth, sometimes fifth pass. [11:46] And I'm just not seeing it from this team. [11:48] Rice, you look at their schedule and you're like, wow, you know, they've lost a bunch of games already. [11:53] Yeah, but they played in a tough showcase already, the Gulf Coast showcase. [11:58] They dropped two out of three in that. [12:00] So I just think that they played better competition. [12:04] They're playing at home here. [12:06] And I've been in their arena. [12:08] It's a tough little arena. [12:10] It's a little different than most arenas. [12:12] So most people would probably maybe go with Texas State here because of the offense. [12:17] But just find that Rice, much better defense here, number 66 in the country compared to Texas State's 151st here. [12:27] So Owls have also covered the spread 12 of the last 16 games at home here. [12:32] I'm going to lay the small spot here. [12:34] Just seems like Texas State, I love Texas State, you know, it's one of my alma mater's. [12:38] but they just can't get over the hump against good teams. [12:42] I'm going to lay the points here. [12:45] Level one lock, Rice Owls over my Texas State Bobcats.”
TXST 80, RICE 69 — Texas State beat Rice 80-69; Rice fails to cover -2, losing outright (ESPN box score).
“Duke minus two and a half versus Ohio State The Buckeyes thoughts on this one Lee Well I mean the Duke upset over Gonzaga [13:38] People will still be talking about maybe as late as the midseason. [13:43] They were an eight and a half point underdog. [13:45] They beat Duke outright, and it wasn't a fluke. [13:48] You know, they were able to score against Gonzaga, [13:51] and they played defense when they had to. [13:53] So this could be a magical season. [13:56] and it's Coach K's last season. [13:58] So they've got to travel to Ohio State here. [14:00] Ohio State, kind of a weird thing. [14:02] So they won their first game. [14:03] They beat Seton Hall with a buzzer. [14:07] And then the next game, they lose to Florida in heartbreaking fashion [14:12] as Florida hit a three-pointer from about 40, 45 feet at the buzzer. [14:18] So I don't think this game is going to come down to it here. [14:21] I think that Duke is just so deep. [14:23] They've got scores all over the court here. [14:26] I just don't know how they match up against a guy named, you know, [14:30] Apollo Blanchero. [14:31] Blanchero is so good. [14:34] He can beat double teams. [14:36] He passes the ball. [14:38] He's a bona fide scorer here. [14:41] And just think that this is a team that I think is going to be able to sustain [14:46] a winning streak here. [14:49] I think they're going to take it personal here. [14:51] And Mark Williams, he came out against Gonzaga. [14:55] So I think also Trevor Keels. [14:59] I mean, they only go like eight deep, but they are really, really – [15:04] they play well defensively. [15:06] And just think that Coach K has his team coming around early and often. [15:10] Just different level of talent here. [15:12] I'm going to lay the points here. [15:13] Small spot here on the road. [15:16] Duke Blue Devils here. [15:18] Level two lock against Ohio State.”
OSU 71, DUKE 66 — Ohio State beat Duke 71-66; Duke fails to cover -2.5, losing outright (ESPN box score).
“Miami minus 7.5 versus Denver. [5:34] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [5:35] Wow. [5:36] Okay, so we get a rematch here. [5:37] I mean, everyone remembers what happened a couple weeks ago. [5:41] We had, you know, Djokic gets fouled, [5:44] and then he ends up pushing, you know, a Heat player [5:50] who is now out for 10 games or longer, who knows, with an injury. [5:54] I mean, it's just crazy. [5:55] So there's no love lost between these two teams. [6:00] Jokic, he has not even returned the last – I mean, he had a wrist injury. [6:04] He's missed the last three or four games. [6:06] We don't know if he's going to return here. [6:08] They're getting absolutely nothing from their supporting cast. [6:12] I mean, you talk about – this used to be a high-scoring team. [6:15] We know that Maurice, Jamal Maurice, he's going to be out for probably another month or two [6:19] with the ACL injury. [6:21] But this is a team right now 26th in the league in scoring offense, [6:27] averaging just 102.8 points per game. [6:31] They're 28th in rebounding, 43.3 rebounds per game, [6:37] just not getting it done, not even sharing the ball much. [6:40] Whereas the Heat, I mean, all of a sudden, even on the road, [6:45] they're getting it done. [6:45] They're 13-7 leading their division. [6:48] They've got weapons all over the court here. [6:52] They're getting healthy. [6:53] I just think this is a great situational play here for the Heat. [6:58] Tyler Hero missed the last game. [6:59] I expect him back. [7:01] Just had a sickness. [7:02] But Jimmy Butler averaging almost 24 points per game, [7:06] over 5.5 and 5.5 rebounds and assists per game. [7:12] Duncan Robinson finally finding his stroke. [7:15] Kyle Lowry all of a sudden just taking over. [7:18] So even though no more is because of that injury, I mean, they're supporting cast guys like Dedman, PJ Tucker, Max Struis, Gabe Vincent. [7:27] Everyone is contributing here. [7:30] Latest, the small spot here. [7:32] I think Miami wins this game by double digits here. [7:36] Blowout special, Miami Heat over the Denver Nuggets.”
MIA 111, DEN 120 — Denver beat Miami 120-111; Heat fail to cover -7.5, losing outright (ESPN box score).
“the Jazz minus 7 versus the Trailblazers [8:22] Break this one down for us, Lee. [8:24] Yeah, you know, we talk about the Utah Jazz a lot, and they're one of these teams, [8:28] once they get on a roll, you just want to ride them. [8:31] And I'm watching the game, their last game, where they played the Pelicans, [8:35] and they look like everything is coming together. [8:38] They have all the elements. [8:40] They have Mitchell, who can knock it down. [8:42] I mean, he is a score extraordinaire. [8:46] They have a rim protector. [8:48] They have a really good point guard and distributor in Conley. [8:53] And, you know, this Portland team just, you know, it's just like me, me, me. [8:57] Yeah, Damian Lillard, 22 points per game. [9:01] He looks good. [9:01] But C.J. McCollum has not been playing real well here. [9:05] a couple guys that are banged up right now and you know I just like to get on teams I see them [9:12] you know starting to get on a roll and Mitchell's one of these guys Don Mitchell when when he starts [9:17] playing well it's contagious last game 21 points but on top of that seven rebounds seven assists so [9:25] you can just tell that he feels like he's in a groove right now they're fourth in the NBA in [9:31] points per game, 112.3 points per game, and fifth in defense. [9:36] I mean, allowing just 103.3. [9:39] So NBA, I mean, there's almost no more complete team. [9:44] Last year they were derailed in the playoffs because of injuries here. [9:47] So even though Rudy Gobert only had eight rebounds in the last contest, [9:51] he's averaging 14.5 rebounds here. [9:54] Royce O'Neal, he's one of these guys that just does a little bit of everything. [9:58] He's like the glue that keeps them together here. [10:00] just find that Portland's one of these selfish teams here, [10:04] and when they lose, they get blown out sometimes here. [10:07] Here it is, another blowout special. [10:11] Take the Utah Jazz here.”
UTAH 129, POR 107 — Utah beat Portland 129-107, covering -7 by 22 points (ESPN box score).
“Iowa minus one versus Virginia Break this one down [12:25] How you feeling this one? Well, [12:26] it's crept up on us and no one realized [12:29] it's the ACC Big Ten Challenge. [12:31] Love the matchups in a lot of these [12:33] games. And so here [12:35] what you have is a team, [12:37] Iowa, that got a lot of attention last [12:39] year because of Luke Garza. I mean, [12:40] great college player. He leaves [12:43] so, you know, people don't pay much [12:45] attention to them, but they're doing it, Iowa, with homegrown talent. [12:49] So Kagan Murray, all of a sudden, kids taking over, averaging 25.7 points per game. [12:56] And like I said, I mentioned homegrown talent. [12:59] You have Kagan Murray, his brother Chris Murray, and then the two McCaffreys, Patrick [13:05] Starks and his brother. [13:07] So they also have a senior guard in Jordan Bohannon, a three-point absolute sniper. [13:14] So I think they have all the elements. [13:16] I mean, you're talking about a team that is scoring. [13:20] They're leading the nation in scoring so far well above, [13:23] I think it's 92.5 points per game. [13:26] They've already put up over 100 points in three of the six games. [13:30] Yeah, they haven't played much, [13:31] but I just think that they have all kinds of scoring. [13:34] And Virginia, they can't score. [13:37] They've only reached above 70 points in one game. [13:40] That was against Radford. [13:41] The only team they played that was decent, Houston, they lost 67 to 47. [13:46] Hey, I know they're known for defense. [13:49] I watch Virginia all the time here when they come down and play Miami. [13:52] But, hey, right now in college basketball, you've got kids that can score. [13:58] That's what college basketball is all about. [14:00] So I'm going to ride the Murray brothers. [14:02] I'm going to ride the McCaffrey brothers, all four from Iowa. [14:06] And I'm going to lay the small spot here. [14:09] I think they get it done. [14:12] Level two lock right out of the gate on a Monday. [14:15] Iowa over Virginia in the ACC Big Ten Challenge.”
IOWA 75, UVA 74 — Iowa beat Virginia 75-74, winning by exactly 1 point, which pushes the -1 spread (ESPN box score).
“Iowa plus one versus Nebraska. [5:51] Sounds disrespectful. [5:52] Lee, what's going on? [5:53] Break this one down for us. [5:54] It is. [5:55] And, hey, Nebraska's been very competitive. [5:58] I had them in their last game. [6:00] But against Wisconsin, and they could have won that game. [6:04] I mean, the stats were in their favor. [6:06] It was a 2-0 turnover disadvantage that cost them the game. [6:10] But who was the quarterback? [6:12] Adrian Martinez. [6:14] And he would normally be playing in this game, but he's out with a shoulder injury. [6:17] The reason they haven't put in a backup is they don't have a backup that can play to his level. [6:22] Are they going to have someone? [6:23] Yeah, but it takes time. [6:25] So, you know, this is a team that they just don't have quick strike capability. [6:30] Their receivers just don't get enough separation. [6:33] hey the Iowa offense isn't good but their defense is top 10 their special teams top 10 [6:40] they'll turn those into points here I think they're going to get a couple takeaways may not [6:46] be a high scoring game but I like the Iowa Hawkeyes here 20 to 13.”
NEB 21, IOWA 28 — Iowa beat Nebraska 28-21, covering +1 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“Gonzaga minus eight for Duke. [7:45] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:47] So I got a DM. [7:48] Someone said, you know, what about this game and that game? [7:51] And it was teams that were playing, get this, Mount, it was Holy Cross was playing Mount St. Vincent. [7:59] I mean, I'm looking up on the internet, you know, I don't see almost, there's almost no information on the team. [8:06] You can barely find rosters. [8:09] Then, you know, I'm trying to see, oh, maybe there's, you know, some video somewhere. [8:13] I'm looking on YouTube. [8:14] I have ESPN Plus, so I go back and watch games. [8:17] I'll watch a half of almost every game. [8:19] I mean, another guy asked me, do I like Tennessee Martin? [8:22] They're playing Carver Bible College. [8:24] I didn't even know it was a school. [8:27] Cal State Northridge was playing St. Catherine. [8:30] So, hey, I'd love to take on those games, [8:33] but the problem here is, you know, you just don't know what the situation is. [8:38] You don't know what kind of team they have. [8:40] So I'd rather take it and look at games, you know, [8:43] where we know a little bit more about the teams. [8:45] What line are you showing on this game that I'm looking at here? [8:47] I am looking at minus eight. [8:50] Okay. [8:50] So, so this line opened at seven and a half and it moved at eight. [8:55] And okay. [8:57] I think Duke is good. [8:58] I think I got some players, you know, they got some guys that are going to be playing [9:02] in the NBA, like Paulo Blanchero. [9:05] Paulo Blanchero is really good. [9:07] I mean, he's made the transition to college basketball seamless, scoring 17.8 points per [9:13] game here. [9:14] He's averaging eight rebounds a game. [9:16] but he might be one of the top three players in this game. [9:19] But out of the top six or seven guys, I think it's all Zags. [9:24] I mean, they got forward, Drew Timmy. [9:26] I mean, he's scary good. [9:28] So their center, Chet Holmgren. [9:31] These guys have played at a high level. [9:34] They made UCLA look like a high school team here. [9:38] So there was a lot of anticipation for that game. [9:42] They ended up winning that game by double digits, 83-60. [9:46] It was over even by halftime here. [9:49] Hey, I know the Blue Devils got a nice defense, [9:53] but they haven't played these type of high-level players. [9:56] So just too much here. [10:00] Outside shooting here for, I think, Gonzaga is too much. [10:05] Don't sleep on the three-point shooting of Julian Strother [10:08] and also Russier Bolton. [10:10] These two guys are going to light it up here. [10:12] Sometimes it looks too good to be true. [10:14] you're thinking, hey, Duke, getting points here. [10:18] Nah wrong side here Blowout special Gonzaga big over the Dukies”
DUKE 84, GONZ 81 — Duke beat Gonzaga 84-81; Gonzaga fails to cover -8, losing outright (ESPN box score).
“Going to go with a total over 140. [13:56] Break this one down for us, Lee. [13:57] Okay, so Memphis is really good. [14:00] If there's a team, actually talent-wise, [14:02] that can play with Gonzaga, [14:04] it's Memphis, talent-wise. [14:05] Now, they've had trouble the last couple years [14:07] through injuries. [14:09] You know, they just haven't put it all together. [14:11] But this team is scary good. [14:13] So Iowa State last year was horrible. [14:16] One of the worst Division I teams that we've seen out of a Power 5 conference. [14:20] A bunch of transfers coming in, a bunch of young kids, [14:23] and they are coming together early. [14:25] So you've got to get on this team before people figure it out. [14:29] So both teams can score. [14:31] Iowa State averaging over 75 points per game. [14:34] Memphis averaging almost 83 points per game. [14:39] So you add that up, I mean, that's way over 150. [14:44] So I think this line here is too low. [14:48] They think that Iowa State can't play transition, and they can. [14:52] What did they do against Xavier? [14:54] They knocked off Xavier, number 25 Xavier, 82-70. [14:58] They ran with him. [15:00] They outshot him. [15:00] And then also, here's another thing that people don't factor in, steals. [15:05] So Iowa State, their defense averages 9.8 steals per game, 30th in the country. [15:11] Remember, there's over like 350 teams. [15:14] Memphis, how are they getting steals? [15:17] Even better, 10.2 steals per game, 25th in the country. [15:21] Easy, quick baskets, layups. [15:23] That's what makes a difference when you're trying to get over the total here. [15:27] So like I said you got some real thoroughbreds You got some guys that can score on both sides of the ball They fired up here so I going over the total 140 here”
ISU 78, MEM 59 — Iowa State beat Memphis 78-59 (137 combined points), under the Over 140 total (ESPN box score).
“The Bengals minus 4 versus Steelers. [16:17] Give it to us. [16:18] Give us the details, Lee. [16:19] All right, so just like the Dallas Cowboys, [16:22] Pittsburgh Steelers have been trying for a while [16:24] to get by with injuries. [16:27] Ben Roethlisberger, he missed a game. [16:32] That game that he missed, they were without their top two receivers. [16:35] They were without their top three defensive players. [16:39] What? [16:39] I mean, this guy is unblockable. [16:42] And five to six games that he's played in, they win the game. [16:46] So I just think that they're a different team. [16:48] Minkham Fitzpatrick, he ended up getting through protocols for COVID. [16:53] So he's going to be back. [16:54] He went through the walkthrough yesterday. [16:56] They said he looks like he's 100% here. [16:59] And what have we seen in teams that go in interdivision and beat their opponent? [17:05] So Cincinnati goes into Pittsburgh, and they just laid it on Pittsburgh early in the season. [17:11] When they come home and they're the home favorite, they have trouble covering even close to 40% of the time. [17:19] And their head coaches, Zach Taylor, 2-8 against the spread off of a win. [17:23] Mike Tomlin, one of the best road underdogs, 31-18-1. [17:29] That's 63.8% as a road underdog when he's a coach. [17:34] So you've got a Pittsburgh team that's getting literally everyone back [17:38] except for Juju Smith-Schuster. [17:40] He's done for the year. [17:41] I see the offensive line starting to come together. [17:44] I was watching the second half. [17:45] They were finally picking up blitzes here. [17:47] So I think the wrong team's favored here. [17:50] I think Pittsburgh's going to win this game. [17:52] I'm taking the four points here. [17:53] level two lock Pittsburgh plus two plus four I'm sorry over Cincinnati boom there it is level two”
CIN 41, PIT 10 — Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh 41-10; Steelers fail to cover +4, losing outright (ESPN box score).
“Brooklyn minus one versus Celtics. [5:29] Break this one down for us. [5:30] Yeah, and both of these teams are hot. [5:33] Both teams have won three in a row. [5:35] Brooklyn may be a little hotter, though. [5:37] They won eight out of ten. [5:39] And the teams that Boston's been beating just are not very good. [5:44] So what's interesting about Brooklyn is they're playing better basketball on the road. [5:49] They're shooting 47% from the field on the road. [5:53] So, you know, they're not doing it with great and just runaway offense. [5:58] They're actually playing some defense this year. [6:01] So, you know, everyone can talk what they want to, you know, about Brooklyn. [6:07] It's just all they do is run and gun. [6:08] But last year they gave up 112 points per game. [6:12] This year 105 points per game. [6:14] So I also think, you know, when Kyrie Irving's not there on the road, [6:18] I think this team bonds together well. [6:21] So I like the matchups. [6:23] I like the fact it's a low line. [6:25] I don't like to lay, you know, like sometimes 8, 10, 12 points in a game with them. [6:30] You know, because they could, you know, you can have a backdoor cover. [6:33] All they're going to do is basically win the game here. [6:36] The Brooklyn Nets, minus one, blowout special tonight.”
BKN 123, BOS 104 — Brooklyn beat Boston 123-104, covering -1 by 19 points (ESPN box score).
“The Raiders plus eight. [7:21] That's a lot of points versus the Cowboys. [7:23] Lee, what are you thinking on this one? [7:24] Okay, so the Raiders have been terrible of late. [7:27] I mean, let's be honest. [7:28] After the 2-0 run, after Gruden stepped down, [7:32] they've been outscored 96-43. [7:35] Not even close. [7:36] 0-3 straight up and against the spread. [7:38] I think the play calling hasn't been good. [7:41] The execution hasn't been there. [7:43] but I think they're going to be sky high for this game. [7:46] They're still five and five. [7:47] Just like we said a couple of weeks ago [7:49] when Denver was four and four, [7:51] people forgot about that and they torched Dallas. [7:54] So I think Dallas sometimes rests on their laurels. [7:58] I think that now without looks like C.D. Lamb [8:01] and without you know you missing your top two receivers The rest of the guys they have they think that Michael Gallup pretty good He at best a third receiver These other guys they got on the roster these guys are jags [8:14] They can't separate. [8:15] They drop a lot of balls here. [8:17] You can tell that Dak just does not have the confidence in these guys, [8:21] so Dallas shouldn't be laying eight points here. [8:24] I think we're going to see a great effort by the Raiders. [8:27] They might even win this game outright. [8:29] So you might want to play the Raiders plus eight. [8:33] Put a little, sprinkle a little here on the money line here. [8:37] Wrong team favored. [8:38] Las Vegas Raiders, they get the job done. [8:41] Eight-point underdog.”
DAL 33, LV 36 — Las Vegas beat Dallas 36-33 in overtime on Thanksgiving, winning outright as an 8-point underdog (ESPN box score).
“Mississippi State, minus one versus Ole Miss. [11:33] Thoughts on this one. [11:34] Break it down. [11:34] Okay, so one of the games, obviously, people are going to remember, [11:39] second half of the season that Ole Miss had was against Texas A&M. [11:42] And they played at home, and they were dominant. [11:44] They controlled the line of scrimmage. [11:46] People don't realize it. [11:47] This is a really good rushing offense. [11:50] Ole Miss number six in the land right now. [11:53] So didn't like the way they looked, though, against Vanderbilt. [11:57] Now they're going to face a Mississippi State team that plays hard, [12:01] runs an unorthodox 3 defense so you not used to going up against it And who was the quarterback last year when Mississippi State upset Mississippi Will Rogers and he is hot He leads the number two passing offense in the country [12:18] They don't run much. [12:19] They don't run well. [12:20] They don't need to. [12:21] They were 390 passing yards a game. [12:24] How hot is he? [12:25] A couple weeks ago playing Auburn, they were down by like 20-something points. [12:30] He led the comeback. [12:31] They won by 9 points, 43-34. [12:34] Now he's still 11 touchdowns, no interceptions in the last two weeks. [12:39] One of the things I've learned in handicapping is never go against a red-hot quarterback. [12:44] And how hot has he been this year, the whole year? [12:48] He's completing 75.7% of his passes. [12:53] That's an astounding rate of year. [12:55] And everyone talks about Matt Corral. [12:57] Yeah, he's the highest one guy here, but he's thrown for 1,000 yards less than Will Rogers. [13:03] So he's done it before. [13:05] He beat them last year. [13:07] And, you know, everyone talks about Matt Corral. [13:10] He only has four touchdown passes in four SEC road games here. [13:14] Everyone's talking about the lane train moving. [13:17] But, hey, Mike Leach, he's getting the job done here. [13:21] I think he's the better coach right now for this team. [13:24] And in this game here, I'm taking Mississippi State here. [13:29] Level two lock, 36-34. [13:33] 36, maybe even 30, somewhere in that range. [13:37] They're laying one point. [13:39] They'll win this game here at home, and they'll win the Egg Bowl.”
OLE MISS 31, MSST 21 — Ole Miss beat Mississippi State 31-21 in the Egg Bowl; Mississippi State fails to cover -1 (ESPN box score).
“UCLA plus 6.5 vs Gonzaga [6:18] break this one down for us [6:19] I've been waiting for this game [6:21] 1 vs 2 [6:24] does it get any bigger [6:25] I mean the stage is set [6:27] it was a final 4 game [6:30] maybe one of the greatest college basketball games I've ever seen [6:34] I mean, Johnny Zuzang, I mean, he was on fire. [6:37] He was unconscious. [6:39] Scored at 29 points in that game. [6:42] So I thought he was going pro. [6:44] I was a little shocked he came back. [6:45] But, you know, should be a great, great game here. [6:49] So I'm all fired up about that game. [6:52] And, you know, should be fun. [6:55] I mean, you got two teams that can fill it up. [6:58] I mean, we're talking about scoring. [7:00] How prolific are these two teams? [7:02] They both score over 90 points per game. [7:06] We're not talking about, you know, like 65, 75. [7:10] We're talking about over 90 points per game. [7:12] UCLA, 90.8, eighth in the country. [7:15] Gonzaga, 93.2. [7:18] I'm going to give you a play on the game and also the total. [7:22] So I think this is the game where UCLA absolutely circle. [7:26] This is a circle in red circle game that they're getting ready for. [7:31] and I think that both teams' defenses are pretty good, [7:35] but the offenses are just that much better here. [7:38] So I think you're going to see UCLA maybe throw out a couple different wrinkles here. [7:46] I think that their chemistry is really good, [7:50] and they didn't shoot threes well the other day, [7:53] but I think they were looking ahead. [7:55] I think that's why here. [7:56] So much firepower. [7:58] I think Gonzaga, I mean, they just keep reloading also. [8:03] But I just think the sharpshooters for UCLA too much here. [8:06] I'm taking the six and a half points here. [8:10] Wrong team favored. [8:12] UCLA, number two, gets their revenge and knocks off number one Gonzaga. [8:17] Take the points here. [8:19] We're going to go with UCLA, wrong team favored, [8:21] and also the over 154 total points.”
GONZ 83, UCLA 63 — Gonzaga beat UCLA 83-63 at the Maui Invitational; UCLA fails to cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with UCLA, wrong team favored, [8:21] and also the over 154 total points.”
GONZ 83, UCLA 63 — Gonzaga beat UCLA 83-63 (146 combined points) at the Maui Invitational, under the Over 154 total (ESPN box score).
“Ball State minus 6 versus Buffalo [9:36] Give it to us, Lee. [9:37] Break it down. [9:37] Okay, so last year, both these teams were much better. [9:40] They both played each other in the MAAC championship game. [9:44] Ball State won that game 38-28. [9:46] So this season has not gone well for either team. [9:49] Buffalo, 4-7, 2-5 in the MAAC. [9:53] Ball State 5-6 and 3-8. [9:56] But a couple things I think really give Ball State the edge here. [10:00] Number one, games at home. [10:02] Number two, Buffalo's without their starting quarterback. [10:05] So backup played last week, played okay, but I don't think it's good enough here. [10:10] So just think that you're going to see a team in Ball State looking to get to a bowl, become bowl eligible. [10:17] in the Bulls game last week. [10:21] Buffalo outgained, 505-384. [10:24] Had a couple plays just go their way here. [10:27] Matt Myers, I think he's a jag. [10:30] Just another guy, 6-4 junior, threw for 162 yards. [10:36] Kyle Ventreese, the guy that he's replacing, was at a different level. [10:40] So I think that's going to really hurt him here. [10:42] And I think the Ball State, I mean, [10:44] And here's a team that has played a really tough schedule. [10:48] They played Penn State. [10:49] They played Wyoming here. [10:52] You know, they even beat Army. [10:53] Army's a good team. [10:54] Army beat Air Force. [10:56] They handled Western Michigan by 25 and Eastern Michigan by seven. [11:01] So no shame in falling in their last game, seven to Miami of Ohio. [11:06] I think they come back here. [11:08] I'm going to lay the six and a half points here. [11:10] Blow out special. [11:13] Ball State over Buffalo tonight.”
BALL 20, BUFF 3 — Ball State beat Buffalo 20-3, covering -6.5 by 10.5 points (ESPN box score).
“Portland, minus 6 versus Nuggets. [13:54] Break this one down for us, Lee. [13:56] So they have similar records, actually the same records, [13:58] but these are two teams going different directions here. [14:01] and also you want to [14:03] check out the Locked on Nuggets podcast [14:06] I mean you want to find out about an injury Nikolai Jokic is listed as questionable so listen to the Locked on Nuggets podcast Adam Morris does an amazing job with Matt Moore to find out his status here Even if he does play [14:23] I mean, he's got a wrist injury. I mean, it's tough to shoot with a wrist injury. So I think [14:29] they're limited. In fact, their last two home games, they lost by six to Chicago. They lost by [14:36] 14 to Philadelphia. [14:40] And then the road games, they lost by 10 to Dallas. [14:43] And on Sunday, are you ready for this? [14:46] They lost by 29 points at Phoenix. [14:49] Now they've got to go to Portland. [14:51] Portland is all of a sudden hot. [14:53] And Damian Lillard is hot. [14:56] So three straight wins for Portland. [14:58] They climbed over 500. [15:00] This is simple. [15:01] You've got a red-hot player, team leader for Portland. [15:04] Sometimes you've got to lay it if you want to play it. [15:07] You've got the other team that just, I mean, they've got to have, [15:10] Jokic's got to be close to 100%, or they just, [15:14] they don't click on all cylinders here. [15:16] So sometimes you've got to lay it. [15:18] Like I said, if you want to play it here, my level two lock, [15:23] we're going with the Portland Trailblazers, [15:25] minus the six over the Denver Nuggets.”
POR 119, DEN 100 — Portland beat Denver 119-100, covering -6 by 13 points (ESPN box score).
“the Sabres [5:44] money line plus 110 [5:45] versus Blue Jackets [5:46] break this one down for us [5:47] ok so I think this [5:49] we're coming up [5:50] on our year anniversary [5:51] of the start of [5:53] Locked On Bets [5:54] And I'm pretty sure I've never given out the Buffalo Sabres as a play on the show. [6:02] But it's time. [6:05] Buffalo Sabres might not be winning a lot of games this year, [6:09] but you can tell that the atmosphere and the culture around the team [6:13] is just so much better under Don Granato. [6:16] Since he was hired in the middle of last season, [6:18] they're hustling for a full 60 minutes each and every game, [6:22] and they're keeping games close. [6:23] even against cup contenders like the New York Rangers. [6:26] They actually lost to the New York Rangers last night on a game-winning goal [6:31] with less than a second left in the third period. [6:34] Heartbreaking. [6:35] But this is what I like so much about this play, [6:39] probably the most glaring situational advantage of the night in the NHL. [6:45] I just mentioned Buffalo had a short trip after a close loss last night [6:49] against New York. [6:50] But then you look at Columbus. [6:53] They're going, I mean, this is going to be tough. [6:55] They just flew all the way to Arizona from Ohio, played the Coyotes, [7:00] then lost to Vegas on Saturday night. [7:03] And, you know, every team loves to go to Vegas. [7:06] And we're starting to see some teams after they go to Vegas having some trouble. [7:11] So then they had to fly all the way back across the country to Buffalo here for this one. [7:18] And let's be honest. [7:19] Buffalo is nowhere near as exciting as Vegas in terms of road trips in the NHL for the players. [7:25] But they've lost the last Columbus has, 13 of 16 away from home. [7:31] And I don't see this team as being motivated. [7:34] Give me the Buffalo Sabres. [7:35] Might be low scoring. [7:36] Might be 2-1, 3-1 here. [7:39] But the wrong team is favored. [7:42] Buffalo Sabres, money line, plus 110.”
CBJ 7, BUF 4 — Columbus Blue Jackets beat Buffalo 7-4; Sabres moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“The Wizards, minus 3.5 versus the Hornets. [8:24] All right, give us the details on this one. [8:26] Let me break it down. [8:27] Okay, you know, this is another team. [8:28] If I gave out Washington once in the last year, I'd be shocked. [8:35] I don't think I have. [8:36] I think I've gone against them at least four or five times. [8:39] This is a team that last year I thought they were going to lose. [8:42] Bradley Beal, I thought he was going to want out. [8:45] But let me tell you something. [8:47] You know, they get rid of Westbrook, Bradley Beal, superstar, [8:51] and hasn't played his best this year. [8:53] He's been off a little bit. [8:54] But Caldwell Pope and also the acquired Spencer Dinwiddie. [9:00] Dinwiddie is just one of these guys that does it all So they win against the Heat They came back They were down almost double digits in the fourth quarter and they committed 19 turnovers [9:12] Kind of shows you the resolve of this team and how different are they. [9:16] So they're usually a high-scoring team. [9:19] And you're thinking, oh, well, they're going to outscore people. [9:22] Not the case. [9:23] Yeah, they're sitting in 20th place in scoring this year. [9:28] But why are they winning defense? [9:30] they're in the top dozen in defense they've been there all year so Wes Ansell Jr. new coach doing [9:36] a good job with this team and tell them hey you want to have fun you want to score great but you [9:42] want to win games you first comes first with defense here so um this is a little payback game [9:48] uh Washington lost against Charlotte already this season so I think they're going to pay him back [9:55] here I think they're going to win this game and like I said small spot I mean it's sitting like [9:59] three and a half, four points here. [10:01] They lost, like I said, just five days ago at Charlotte, 97-87. [10:07] I think they turn it around. [10:08] They're going to win like 100 to 93 here. [10:12] Washington Wizards minus the three and a half to four.”
CHA 109, WAS 103 — Charlotte beat Washington 109-103; Wizards fail to cover -3.5 (ESPN box score).
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 (teased from -11)
- Over 44 (teased from 50)
“We're closing things out with the lock of the day NFL action Monday night football. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New York Giants. The Buccaneers are 6-3. The Giants are absolutely the opposite. They are 3-6. The betonline.ag line for this one is Tampa Bay minus 11 with the 50 being the total. But you're going to roll with a two-team six-point teaser. Break this one down for us. Yeah, so here's what I'm hearing all week. People are like, if you listen to ESPN and you read all these publications, all they're saying is, oh, Tampa Bay, they've lost two in a row. They've got to win this game. Oh, they'll come back. They'll win. And then also people are saying, well, the Giants, they could be getting back five of the top six playmakers on offense. So, you know, maybe they pull the upset. Well, so why don't we approach this game differently? Maybe it's a mixture of both things happening. Do I think Tampa Bay is going to win? Yeah, really good chance. But let's say middle of the fourth quarter or late fourth quarter, they're up anywhere from, you know, let's say six to 17 points. Well, you're going to be sweating out that last drive, and it is awful. I hate sweating out last drives where one play, one great catch, one official's call determines my wager. So this is what I going to do Let say Tampa Bay is sitting there up you know 14 or 17 points I don want to sweat a backdoor touchdown So what I going to do is I going to take the total I going to take Tampa Bay They're favored by 11. I'm going to bring it down six points to five. All they need to do is run by six points or more, which I think they will. I win that side of the bet. Total, 50 points. We're going to take that down to 44 and play the over. with the Giants having all those skilled players coming back at receiver, running back. You know, we're talking Barkley, Slate, and all these guys that are, you know, dynamic, tight ends. Well, I think they can score on the Tampa Bay secondary. Tampa Bay secondary is terrible. I mean, the pass interference calls, the amount of times they've gotten beat, second to none, but we still got Tom Brady. And we got Godwin. We got Fournette. So I think there's enough firepower to at least get to a 27-17 game. We can get above that. So as long as we do that, we're going to have a winner. So we're going to go the two-team, six-point teaser, Tampa Bay minus the five and the over 44 total points, level one lock.”
TB 30, NYG 10 — Tampa Bay beat the Giants 30-10; the teased Bucs -5 leg covers but the combined 40 points falls under the teased Over 44 leg, so the parlay loses (ESPN box score).
“UNLV plus 13.5 versus the Wolverines. [2:24] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [2:25] Okay, do I think UNLV has a chance to win this game? [2:29] Probably not. [2:30] But we're looking to cash a bet. [2:32] And I think Michigan's talented. [2:35] I just don't think they're experienced. [2:37] And this is a tough trip. [2:39] I mean, they're coming off a game on Tuesday night. [2:43] We played Seton Hall, and they've got to travel cross-country to play, [2:46] and the game is going to start at midnight Eastern time. [2:50] That's tough for any young kid's clock. [2:53] So I think that might contribute to them being off just a little bit here. [2:58] I think that this is a big stage here for UNLV. [3:01] They've got to feel comfortable. [3:03] You know, they've got a bunch of guys that are second, third, and fourth options, [3:08] and they're looking to step up here. [3:10] So the center, Hunter Dickinson, I think for the Wolverines, [3:16] he might have some trouble. [3:17] I think they're going to force him out and then try to feed the ball inside. [3:23] If they're able to do that, they should have some success. [3:26] So some of these guys for UNLV I think will step up. [3:29] Maybe it's Bryce Hamilton, also like Jordan McCabe. [3:34] He chips in at like 10 points a game. [3:36] He had 13 against North Dakota State, which is a tough defense. [3:40] And then forward Royce, him, Jr., scoring a little over nine a game. [3:46] I think he could have a big game and he a really good rebounder so you can lose the battle on the glass here So I just think that the scheduling situation here [3:57] and I think also a good crowd might help out. [4:02] We're not talking about winning 7 out of 10, 8 out of 10. [4:07] Just keep it close. [4:08] I'm picking UNLV plus 13.5 against Michigan.”
61-74 — Michigan beat UNLV 74-61, a 13-point margin; UNLV +13.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“The Buckeyes, minus 19 versus Michigan State. [6:17] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [6:18] So you're not going to see this too often. [6:19] You've got a fourth-ranked team against a seventh-ranked team, [6:24] and the fourth-ranked team is laying a lot of points, almost 20 points. [6:28] But it's there for a reason. [6:30] Now, Michigan State can run the ball. [6:31] I think they can have some success against Ohio State's defense, [6:35] but they better put up 250-plus yards. [6:37] like Oregon did when Oregon ran for 269, [6:40] or else this could get ugly early. [6:43] And I love Kenneth Walker III, [6:46] but they have a real weakness. [6:48] Michigan State does. [6:48] Their pass defense, dead last. [6:51] That's right, 130th out of 130 teams, [6:54] and they're going to face an Ohio State offense. [6:56] Well, C.J. Stroud kind of had an off game last week. [6:59] Two for three, 355, five touchdowns, no interceptions, [7:04] and didn't throw for 400 yards for a fourth time this year. [7:07] but he looks great. [7:09] I mean, he's got three weapons. [7:11] He's got three receivers that might go in the first round. [7:13] In fact, these three receivers have totaled 163 catches for 25 touchdowns, [7:20] and they might have four or five games left in them. [7:22] Buckeyes have won 5-0 straight up in this series, 4-5 they've covered. [7:27] I know Mel Tucker got it, and he deserved a nice big extension, [7:33] but I wouldn't do an extension during the year. [7:35] It seems like every time that happens to a coach they lose two of the next three I think he the right guy He should be rewarded but do it I think you just don do it in season So I think Ohio State going to lay one on Michigan State 47”
56-7 — Ohio State beat Michigan State 56-7, with C.J. Stroud throwing 6 first-half touchdowns; Buckeyes moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Michael Maverick Chiesa, plus 155 versus Sean Brady. [8:49] Break this one down for us, Lee. [8:50] Yeah. [8:51] I mean, hey, if someone's just looking for a winning week, [8:53] they could give you a minus 200, 300 favorite. [8:56] I'm looking at an underdog in the co-main event, [8:59] UFC Fight Night, Vieira versus Tate. [9:02] 170-pound welterweight division here. [9:05] So the battle of two American fighters who both really come from a strong wrestling base, 28-year-old ranked number 14, Sean, he might be Bobby Brady after this fight here, or Peter Brady. [9:21] He's been impressive so far in his MMA career, 14-0, 4-0 in the UFC. [9:26] However, this is a huge step up in opponents. [9:29] So Brady has never fought anyone close to the caliber of number 6 ranked, Kiesa. [9:34] who's coming off. [9:36] He did have a loss to number four, Vincent Luque, [9:39] in a bout where Chiesa was really close to earning a submission win [9:43] before the tables turned on him. [9:44] So neither one of these fighters are known for their striking, [9:47] so this looks to be a grappling heavy bout. [9:50] And I just see Chiesa getting the better of Brady by way of experience. [9:55] Chiesa has been in there with some of the best fighters in the UFC, [9:58] while this will be Brady's first bout against a ranked fighter. [10:02] By the end of the night, I just see Chiesa earning the win, maybe decision, outside shot at a rear naked choke submission somewhere in round two or three. [10:13] So we're going to go with a level one lock, Michael Chiesa, plus 155 over Bobby Brady.”
Sean Brady defeated Michael Chiesa by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 198 on November 20, 2021; Chiesa moneyline busts.
“The Packers minus 2.5 versus the Vikings. [12:20] Break this one down for us. [12:21] So I'd like to coach Minnesota. [12:24] I think that they have a world of talent. [12:26] I just don't think they utilize it well. [12:29] So they have a shot because they've got Dalvin Cook. [12:33] When they don't have Dalvin Cook, I mean, they have no running game. [12:36] Dalvin Cook can rip off these 10, 20, 30-yard games like they're nothing. [12:41] But he has a propensity to fumble. [12:44] I like the way the Green Bay defensive coordinator, Joe Barry, teaches defense. [12:49] His guys go for the first guy makes a tackle. [12:52] Second and third guys go for the strip. [12:54] They've really improved. [12:56] I mean, they're missing their best pass rusher and their best cornerback. [13:00] And what have they done the last five games? [13:02] Average giving up only 11 points per game. [13:04] They might have their best offensive lineman back. [13:07] Aaron Rodgers was out of sorts. [13:09] You know, you're sitting around your house for 10, 11 days. [13:12] It's tough to just go out on the football field and perform at a high level. [13:16] I just think coaching. [13:18] I think that the quarterback play are the difference here. [13:21] And Aaron Rodgers owns Minnesota. [13:23] I'll go with Green Bay here. [13:25] They win and cover 28-20.”
31-34 — Minnesota beat Green Bay 34-31; Packers -2.5 busts outright (ESPN box score).
“The Patriots minus 6.5 versus the Falcons. [7:25] Break this one down for us. [7:27] Quietly under the radar, the Patriots are back. [7:32] And rematch here of the Super Bowl. [7:36] So Atlanta probably doesn't want to hear it, but it's even worse now. [7:40] I mean, this team is in a full rebuild mode. [7:44] Matt Ryan's better days are obviously behind me. [7:47] He doesn't have an offensive line. [7:49] No star receiver Calvin Ridley for this game. [7:51] He's out for personal reasons. [7:53] Cordell Patterson, their running back slash wide receiver slash kick returner [7:59] is a game-time decision with an ankle injury. [8:01] So he's not close to 100%. [8:03] I mean, no one does their best work, believe it or not, on the road. [8:06] They're 6-4 straight up, but they're 4-0 on the road. [8:10] In fact, 3-1 against the spread. [8:12] And if you watched the game last week, I mean, you talk about a beatdown. [8:15] They allowed a first drive touchdown to Cleveland and then shut the door. [8:21] They scored 45 straight points. [8:25] I mean, they're just getting it going on defense. [8:27] They don't make mistakes. [8:28] They don't have busting coverage. [8:30] And then on offense, I mean, look what Matt Jones has to throw to. [8:33] Jacoby Myers is all of a sudden finding himself. [8:36] He has 50 catches on the year. [8:38] They have a tight end for the first time in a number of years since Grok Quest [8:44] and Hunter Henry. [8:45] 31 catches, seven touchdowns here. [8:48] And then Damian Harris finally healthy again. [8:50] Went through a couple weeks. [8:52] He wasn't 100%. [8:53] He's got almost 550 yards and seven touchdowns. [8:56] So they can hit you from so many different ways here. [8:59] I just think this is a great situational play here on Thursday night. [9:05] Blowout special. [9:07] New England, minus 6.5 over Atlanta.”
25-0 — New England shut out Atlanta 25-0, a 25-point margin; Patriots -6.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Tampa Bay Lightning, money line, minus 128 versus the Flyers. [9:56] Break this one down for us, Lee. [9:57] All right, one thing is for sure. [9:58] The Philadelphia Flyers are not the offensive first team that they used to be. [10:03] Carter Hart is playing some good goalie this season so far and Philly has been forced to become I believe a defensive team this year given their injuries and some of the guys they lost in the offseason [10:16] They're 22nd in the NHL in goals per game at 2.71, and they're 4th in goals allowed per game at 2.43. [10:24] In fact, they've scored 8 goals. That's it, just 8 goals in the last 5 games, [10:28] and have converted on just 12% of their power play opportunities. [10:33] I just don't think that's going to cut it against the Tampa Bay Lightning. [10:37] Tampa Bay has come alive after a slow start. [10:39] They won six of the last eight. [10:42] Plenty of rest also in the last couple days with all the firepower that the Lightning have. [10:47] I just don't think that the Flyers are going to be able to afford to sit back [10:51] and rely on goaltending all night. [10:52] One more thing. [10:53] The Lightning are 7-1 in their last eight games against Philadelphia, [10:57] and I think they make it 8-1 here. [11:00] I think they're going to win this game something like 4-1, [11:04] maybe even if Philly plays well 4-2. [11:06] So we're going to go with a level one lock here, [11:12] Tampa Bay Lightning minus 128 here over the Philadelphia Flyers.”
4-3 — Tampa Bay beat Philadelphia 4-3 in a shootout, led by Stamkos and Point; Lightning moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Mississippi minus 3 versus Marquette. [13:59] Break this one down, Lee. [14:00] Where are we going? [14:01] Yeah, so Marquette comes in 3-0. [14:04] Had a big-time win over number 10, Illinois. [14:08] And we were riding them. [14:10] And the thing about gambling is you can't get too attached to one team. [14:13] What you see in one game might, I wouldn't say hurt them in the next game, [14:19] but you find some weaknesses sometimes in the team. [14:23] And I just think that the Rebels are an under-the-radar team. [14:27] So they've got three guys here on the offense that can score double figures [14:33] on a consistent basis. [14:35] And look at numbers, too. [14:37] Raw numbers sometimes usually tell you the story here. [14:40] even though they're ranked 94th in scoring, [14:45] they're 32nd in the country in effective field goal percentage at 59%. [14:51] So that's very important. [14:53] Some of the things that I look at, [14:54] I also look at offensive turnover rate, just 13.9%. [14:59] So their effective field goal percentage is 32nd in the country [15:05] out of almost 350 teams. [15:07] On defense they rated number 22nd in the country So this is a solid team They don beat themselves I love their head coach Kermit Davis Jr A lot of people don know about him but he used to be at Middle Tennessee State when they used to dominate in that conference [15:24] And just a really good coach. [15:26] And I think that they're going to catch Marquette here at the right time here. [15:31] I'm going to lay the three points here. [15:34] Level two lock Ole Miss minus the three over Marquette.”
72-78 — Marquette beat Ole Miss 78-72; Ole Miss -3 busts outright (ESPN box score).
“So the total's 43-1⁄2. [16:38] I think it's going to close 41-41-1⁄2. [16:42] We're looking for value right now. [16:44] This might be one of those games that's 10-7, 14-10. [16:49] It might look like a winter wonderland, [16:51] or it might look like you want to take out your whomping boards when you were a kid [16:57] and go whomping if it's rain and not quite snow. [17:00] So it's going to be right near that level. [17:02] and the low to mid-30s. [17:04] So we're going to go under 43.5 here right now [17:10] in the Cleveland and Detroit game. [17:13] We're adding it a level three lock.”
13-10 — Cleveland beat Detroit 13-10, a combined 23 points; Under 43.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“some people think Oh everything okay Now Michigan state they rebounded they clocked Western Michigan I not buying in here I like this Butler team at home getting three and a half points [4:18] I think the wrong team is favored. [4:20] I think Butler's going to pull the upset tonight over Michigan State.”
52-73 — Michigan State beat Butler 73-52, a 21-point margin; Butler +3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Seahawks minus one versus the Cardinals. [5:41] What are you thinking about this one? [5:42] How are you feeling? [5:43] Boy, people were betting Seattle last week. [5:46] They were getting only 3.5 points. [5:48] That's right, only 3.5 at Green Bay. [5:50] People, we talk about it over and over again. [5:53] Don't bet quarterbacks their first game back. [5:55] Russell Wilson comes back. [5:57] The public is all over it. [5:58] Well, what happens? [6:00] They don't even score a point. [6:02] That's right. [6:02] They got goose egged at Green Bay. [6:05] But coming home now, it's his second game, and he's going up against, [6:09] it looks like probably Kyler Murray will probably play in this game. [6:12] They've got no other choice. [6:13] I mean, those backups were terrible. [6:15] Colt McCoy was terrible. [6:16] They even had to yank him, put in the third stringer. [6:19] So I always thought that, you know, Arizona's fake. [6:23] They're now 8-2. [6:24] Won't shock me if they're something like 9-5 in a couple weeks. [6:28] And who do you want coaching your team down the stretch? [6:32] I don't want it to be Cliff Kingsbury in crunch time here. [6:35] I think Seattle gets it going. [6:37] I think their running game gets going. [6:39] Play action, Russell Wilson, for a week. [6:41] I'm not saying Seattle's great, but this is a must-win game sitting here [6:45] with only a couple wins, three wins. [6:48] So I like Seattle here. [6:50] I'm going to lay the one point. [6:52] I think this is going to be a blowout special over Arizona.”
13-23 — Arizona beat Seattle 23-13; Seahawks -1 busts outright (ESPN box score).
“Blackhawks money line, plus 135 versus the Kraken. [10:19] Go ahead and give us the details on this one. [10:21] Yeah, the Blackhawks got a perfect break at the perfect time. [10:26] They got off to an absolutely horrible start. [10:28] They fired their head coach. [10:29] They had to deal with the fallout of that investigation [10:31] and to the sexual abuse allegations. [10:34] They were barely selling half the tickets to home game. [10:37] that all happened in about two to three weeks to open the season. [10:42] Then they got about a week and a half with the new head coach, [10:47] Derek King. [10:48] And what happens to three, [10:49] you know, [10:50] they're really starting to turn things around, [10:52] especially on the backend. [10:54] They have a nine 23 save percentage since he came in and just tightened it [11:00] up. [11:00] And I think the players are buying in now the cracking. [11:04] Well, I like the nickname, but the last time we remember, they were like a 500 team. [11:11] They're 4-10-1 now. [11:13] The Kraken have a lot of cracks here. [11:14] So I don't know what exactly their plan was in the expansion draft. [11:20] They have absolutely no depth up front. [11:21] They're 20th in goals per game. [11:24] They're 24th in expected goals per game. [11:27] They've lost six of the last seven in four of those games. [11:31] They were even at home. [11:32] So even worse, they're giving up over four goals per game in that span. [11:36] They're rotating three different goalies. [11:38] So you know what they say about quarterbacks? [11:40] When you got two, you got none. [11:42] When you got three, you definitely got none. [11:44] So I just don't – that's not their problem. [11:47] It's the defense. [11:48] Goalies are fine. [11:49] I just don't see them keeping up with the Blackhawks here, [11:52] especially with the boost that they had with the coaching change. [11:55] I think the Blackhawks run away with this one, something like 4-2 to 5-2. [11:59] So, bet a little, win a whole lot. [12:03] Chicago Blackhawks here, plus 135 money line.”
4-2 — Chicago beat Seattle 4-2, with Patrick Kane a goal and an assist; Blackhawks moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one is a pick-em. [12:43] Straight up pick-em. [12:44] Northern Illinois versus Buffalo. [12:46] Break it down for us, Lee. [12:47] Well, some of these MAAC teams, when they play at home, [12:50] there's no one in the stands on these Tuesday and Wednesday games. [12:53] And Buffalo's not going to have too many fans here. [12:56] They lost their coach, maybe one of the best coaches in the MAAC that we've seen over the last 20, 30 years. [13:02] Weipold, he ends up going to Kansas. [13:04] You see what they did. [13:05] They almost beat Oklahoma. [13:07] They beat Texas with almost absolutely no talent. [13:10] And they were a running machine last year, but they can't run. [13:14] In fact, Northern Illinois is the team that can run here, 15th in the country in rushing here. [13:20] and they need to win both games to get the bowl eligibility. [13:26] I don't see it happening. [13:27] And who's the quarterback for Northern Illinois? [13:30] No more than Rocky Lombardi. [13:33] I mean, one of the great names in college football from Michigan State. [13:38] Hey, when he's harassed, you know, when he was at Michigan State, [13:41] he had some games where he threw three or four interceptions. [13:44] They can protect him here. [13:45] Good quarterback or at least a decent quarterback drops down a level. [13:49] They can go to the Mac and they can dominate here. [13:51] So they'll run the ball effectively over Buffalo, [13:55] then use play action here with Rocky. [13:57] So I'm riding Rocky here. [14:00] Level two lock, Northern Illinois over Buffalo tonight.”
33-27 — Northern Illinois beat Buffalo 33-27 in overtime; NIU pick'em covers (ESPN box score).
“The Ducks money line, plus 120 versus the Capitals. [5:33] Break this one down for us, Lee. [5:34] Yeah, of all the teams across the league, [5:37] The Anaheim Ducks are the biggest and most pleasant surprise so far. [5:43] This is a team that was projected to finish dead last in the Pacific Division [5:47] behind teams like San Jose and even the L.A. Kings. [5:51] Not only are they winning games, but they're winning games with the offense, [5:55] which is crazy. [5:58] I mean, they're fourth in the NHL in scoring, and they're getting it from everywhere. [6:03] Get this. [6:04] Their leading scorer is 24-year-old Troy Terry. [6:06] Their second leading scorer, 36-year-old Ryan Getloff. [6:12] Getloff is one of the oldest players in the NHL, too. [6:16] They're getting the Washington Capitals at a really good time. [6:19] So Washington just played two quick road games. [6:22] Then they had a big matchup with their rival Pittsburgh at home on Sunday. [6:26] And now they have to travel here across the country for four straight on the West Coast. [6:31] This is a banged-up Capitals team, too. [6:34] I think this line should be, like, probably minus 120 the other way. [6:41] So we're going to go with the Anaheim Ducks money line, plus 120.”
3-2 — Anaheim beat Washington 3-2 in overtime; Ducks moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Miami minus six and a half versus FAU. [7:16] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [7:16] Break it down. [7:17] Yeah, so a lot of times it's important to pick teams that you're really familiar with. [7:21] And one of those teams I'm familiar with, obviously, they're about a 10, 12-minute drive from my house, [7:27] is the University of Miami Hurricanes. [7:29] So they had two guys that entered the draft, and they wanted to see if they were going to get drafted. [7:37] And these two guys, Isaiah Wong and Cam Auguste, well, came back with grades that, hey, you're probably not going to get drafted even in the second round. [7:45] But these guys are really good players. [7:47] These guys scored 20-plus points in their last game against Central Florida. [7:52] But they have some other guys here at point guard and also at shooting guard that are new. [7:58] and sometimes just takes a couple days here. [8:01] So this is a team I think that's going to explode offensively. [8:05] And I think some people think because FAU, you know, [8:08] they played New Mexico State tough that, you know, [8:11] they're going to sit there and play Miami tough at home. [8:14] Well, I don't think FAU is any good. [8:16] I watched their first game. [8:18] I think Miami is going to have the lead here. [8:20] And even if they're up, let's say, 10, 12, 13 points late in the game [8:24] and they start getting fouled, hey, they can knock down free throws. [8:27] almost 74% as a team. [8:29] So a bunch of young pieces coming together but with Isaiah Wong and Magusti and even Sam Wardenburg who missed the entire season last year I just think they have too much here Different level here and you getting [8:42] value because they lost to Central Florida at home on Saturday. [8:46] So we're going to go here with the blowout [8:50] special, Miami of Florida, [8:54] minus 6.5 over FAU. Pay attention here.”
68-66 — Miami beat FAU 68-66, a 2-point margin; Miami -6.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Oilers, money line, minus 105 versus the Jets. [11:03] Thoughts on this one? [11:04] Yeah, so I think the line is too friendly to the Winnipeg Jets here. [11:07] Winnipeg used to have one of the best advantages on the home ice in the NHL. [11:12] You know, it had a really loud building, but this isn't 2018 anymore [11:18] when the Jets were one of the best teams in the league. [11:21] So look at their record. [11:23] And you're like, oh, okay, well, they're pretty good. [11:25] 6-1-1 at home this season. [11:27] Well, look at who they beat. [11:28] They beat Nashville, Dallas, Chicago, San Jose, and Los Angeles. [11:34] None of those teams here are going to be considered a playoff contender. [11:40] Or even if they somehow get into the playoffs, [11:42] they have no shot at the Stanley Cup. [11:45] Edmonton is light years ahead of any of those teams, especially offensively. [11:48] offensively. [11:49] So if you look at the last seven games for the Oilers, [11:52] average over four goals per game here, [11:55] they're converting on over 30% of their power plays. [11:58] They're five and two on the road this year. [12:00] They're second in the NHL in goal scoring. [12:03] Then you look at Winnipeg. [12:05] Yeah, they're ninth in the NHL in scoring at home, [12:08] but they rank just 27th in shots on goal per game this year. [12:12] So they're getting just a lot of lucky bounces. [12:15] Those even out over the course of the season. [12:18] I think we see some regression here with the Jets, [12:22] and I think it's a great spot for the Oilers. [12:24] Remember, this is a big revenge spot for Edmonton [12:27] after Winnipeg eliminated them from the playoffs last year. [12:31] I see a 4-2, 5-1 score here for Edmonton. [12:35] Level one lock, Edmonton Oilers money line, minus 105.”
2-5 — Winnipeg beat Edmonton 5-2; Oilers moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Brooklyn, minus 2.5 versus [13:30] the Warriors. Lee, how you feeling this one? [13:32] Okay, so people love Golden [13:34] State this year. Yes. They had [13:36] won seven straight [13:38] and won all seven straight until [13:40] their game on Sunday, which they lost [13:42] to Charlotte by double [13:43] digits. Then they finally lost. Well, [13:46] Most of those games, in fact, I think it was every single game of those seven games were at home. [13:53] So they felt comfortable. [13:54] Now they've got to go on the road. [13:56] They've got to play some better teams, and they're going to have to face, even though their defense has improved, [14:01] maybe the best offensive team in the NBA here. [14:04] Now, what they're doing is they're getting contributions from most everyone on their team. [14:10] But right now, they're going to have to play a Brooklyn team that is deep. [14:14] So you talk about a bench. [14:17] They got guys like Nick Claxton, Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap, Bruce Brown, [14:23] Javon Carter, James Johnson. [14:26] These guys, I mean, they do it all here. [14:28] So the Nets are also fifth in the league in three-point field goals. [14:33] So it's not just that they're facing a good team. [14:36] They're facing a good team that can score. [14:38] They're facing a team that can shoot three-pointers here, [14:41] Average 13.9 three-pointers per game here. [14:46] First in three-point field goal percentage by hitting almost 39.5% of their three-pointers here. [14:55] I think Golden State's going down here. [14:57] Small spot, laying two and a half here. [14:59] Level two lock, Brooklyn Nets over the Golden State Warriors.”
99-117 — Golden State beat Brooklyn 117-99, an 18-point margin led by Curry's 37 points; Nets -2.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Marquette plus nine versus Illinois. [4:37] What's your thoughts on this one, Lee? [4:38] So we're going to cover the biggest game in college basketball today. [4:43] We're going to cover the biggest NBA game and the biggest NFL game. [4:47] It all starts off, first game that tips off is college basketball. [4:52] So you get some, you know, rivals here. [4:55] There is a rivalry between Illinois and Marquette. [4:58] And, you know, if you're in the Midwest, you know all about it. [5:01] And who returned to Marquette? [5:03] Who's their new coach? [5:05] Shaka Smart. [5:06] Well, he wasn't perfect for Texas. [5:08] Not the right fit. [5:09] But this is where he's, I think he's going to do well. [5:11] He does have a lot of transfers. [5:14] But, you know, people look at the first couple games and see they struggled to win two games. [5:19] It's a process. [5:20] And Shaka also realizes that, and his teams play defense. [5:26] So, you know, it's not all about winning 95 to 85. [5:29] and what he has here, he's going to have to go up against a team in Illinois [5:34] that's really talented. [5:36] But the problem is this Illinois team that's ranked 11th in the country [5:40] is going to be without their star center. [5:42] So his best two players, Shaka's are, is his two power forwards [5:48] and a small forward. [5:49] So I think they're going to get some baskets inside here. [5:53] So Kofi Cockburn is not playing for Illinois. [5:56] He has a three-game suspension here. [5:58] They won easy against Arkansas State, and people saw Arkansas State was returning their whole team. [6:04] Arkansas State, I mean, they couldn't hit layups in that game that was played last week here. [6:10] Wrong team favorite here. [6:12] I like Marquette, plus the nine points. [6:15] They're playing at home. [6:16] Crowd will be crazy here. [6:18] So, wrong team favorite. [6:21] Marquette Warriors, I think they take this game down to the wire.”
67-66 — Marquette beat Illinois 67-66 outright; Marquette +9 covers easily (ESPN box score).
“The Rams minus 3-1⁄2 versus the 49ers. [7:26] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:28] Okay, so we talk about setups and layers in games. [7:31] This game has everything. [7:33] So last week, what happens? [7:35] Okay, San Francisco gets blown out 31-17. [7:39] It wasn't by Murray. [7:41] It wasn't by his whole cast of receivers. [7:44] It was by a backup quarterback here in Colt McCoy. [7:48] And I think San Francisco is a dead team. [7:51] I think they've got a quarterback problem. [7:53] I don't think their defense is good enough anymore. [7:55] and then on the other side [7:57] the Rams lose at home to Tennessee [7:59] I think they were excited to get Von Miller [8:02] they were distracted [8:03] Tennessee was motivated [8:05] everyone said that they lost their star running back [8:08] they were done and their defense came to play [8:10] so now you have a Rams team [8:12] coming off being humbled at home [8:14] they gave up five sacks and had 12 penalties they have a good offensive line Matt Stafford still a potential NFL MVP [8:27] I think he gets back on a roll here. [8:29] He's got maybe one of the top two or three receivers in the league in Cooper Cup. [8:33] Daryl Henderson, a really good running back. [8:36] And the offensive line, like I said, of that horrible performance, [8:39] I think they're one of the top six, seven, eight offensive lines. [8:42] So I think they're going to be motivated here. [8:45] So then on the other side, you have a team that was exposed, [8:49] and I think it's going to get worse and worse and worse. [8:51] So we saw good teams bounce back yesterday, like the Dallas Cowboys, [8:56] and we saw also another team bounce back, Buffalo Bills. [9:01] I think the Rams, one of the top three or four teams in the NFL. [9:04] I think they bounce back. [9:05] I think we're going to see Matthew Stafford's MVP campaign get back on track here. [9:12] No Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, obviously, [9:17] was not a distraction to the game last week. [9:20] And now they're going to have to face a really good, [9:23] maybe the best offense in the NFL. [9:25] I like the Rams here. [9:28] Blowout special, laying the three and a half points over San Francisco.”
10-31 — San Francisco beat the Rams 31-10, a 21-point margin; Rams -3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Lakers and Bulls is a pick-em game, Lee. [11:38] Go ahead and break this one down for us. [11:40] So, weird setup. [11:41] So, both of these two teams played yesterday in the same building against different opponents. [11:46] The Lakers had an early afternoon, a game against San Antonio. [11:50] And Anthony Davis, oh my God, he went wild in that game. [11:54] Scored 34 points, had 15 rebounds, and even 6 assists. [12:00] So, he even shot 2 for 3 on 3-pointers. [12:02] So also Westbrook, we know what Russell Westbrook brings to the table. [12:09] Now he's going to be motivated. [12:10] They're going to play against a Bulls team that played at night against the Clippers. [12:15] So we'll turn around and play tonight. [12:18] Lakers got probably an extra seven, eight hours of rest, which could be a factor here. [12:24] LeBron James it looks like probably will not go If for some reason decides to play he listed as questionable with an abdominal strain Well the line going to close three three and a half four points [12:35] So you want to get on this game early. [12:37] When it's a pick-em, the line's not going to get any worse. [12:41] And great matchup here. [12:42] So what we have here is the young team, Chicago, Zach Levine, DeMar DeRozan. [12:48] You know, they want to make a statement. [12:50] They hoop it up from outside. [12:52] not a team that puts it down inside much [12:55] but they're going to be without their star center [12:57] Bukovic and without him [12:59] I just think you're going to see [13:01] Anthony Davis just go wild here [13:02] so we're not asking the Lakers [13:05] to go on a run but I think they will be motivated [13:07] they get up for playing big teams here [13:09] Chicago's time is coming [13:11] but I think they're due [13:13] for a little slump here [13:14] I think they could lose this game [13:16] maybe three of the next four here [13:17] so we're going to take the Lakers here [13:20] as a pick'em at home [13:22] level two lock.”
103-121 — Chicago beat the Lakers 121-103, led by DeMar DeRozan's 38 points; Lakers pick'em busts (ESPN box score).
“The Blue Jackets, money line, plus 111 versus the Capitals. [3:38] Break this one down for us, Lee. [3:39] Yeah, so the Columbus Blue Jackets, of all teams, are red hot right now, [3:45] despite their injuries and a real uncommon scheduling situation [3:51] that's going on with this team. [3:52] They just won their fourth game out of five in back-to-back matchups [3:57] with the Colorado Avalanche. [3:59] And now they had five days off at home before the matchup with the Capitals What did Washington do before this one Well they played in Detroit last night with a backup goalie and had to travel down from Michigan to Columbus for this one [4:13] to face a rested Blue Jackets team. [4:16] Columbus always plays the Capitals well in their home arena. [4:19] In fact, they're 5-1 in the last six games at home as a home underdog. [4:24] I think the wrong team is favored here. [4:27] Columbus wins this game 4-2. [4:29] WTU Columbus Blue Jackets, Moneyline, plus 111, wrong team favorite.”
3-4 — Washington beat Columbus 4-3 at Nationwide Arena; Blue Jackets moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Big Ben Rothwell minus 150 versus Marcos Rogerio de Lima. [5:23] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [5:23] Yeah, this is the co-main event of USC Fight Night Holloway versus Rodriguez. [5:28] Saturday. Now remember, it starts, the undercard starts at one o'clock. I always get, there's always [5:33] one or two people that will text me or email me and say, Hey, this will be like at four or five [5:40] o'clock when one of these cards takes place early. And they'll say, can I still get in? I'm like, [5:46] no, you missed four of the five fights too late. So starts at one o'clock Eastern and big Ben [5:53] Rothwell has been in the UFC since 2009. He's only a 150 favorite here versus DeLima. DeLima [6:02] spent most of his career as a light heavyweight and has never been competitive against a fighter [6:07] Rothwell's level and size. Rothwell has to even cut weight to make 265, while DeLima, [6:14] he looks more like a slightly overweight light heavyweight that he is. So Rothwell is bigger, [6:21] stronger tougher has better cardio and is better than de lima anywhere uh this fight goes whether [6:29] it's stand up uh goes to the mat uh they try to submit each other don't be confused by de lima's [6:36] win over maurice the crochet boss green so green is back to knitting where he belongs and is [6:44] nowhere near the caliber of rothwell rothwell i think he's going to cruise to a 30 27 win here [6:49] or possibly even take out the much smaller DeLima as he cruises to another UFC win here. [6:57] Big Ben Roswell, minus 150 here.”
Marcos Rogerio de Lima defeated Ben Rothwell by first-round TKO (punches) at 0:32 at UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez; Rothwell moneyline busts.
“Cincinnati minus 23.5 points versus South Florida. [9:21] What are your thoughts on this one? [9:22] I wanted to give you a little taste of what we can expect this weekend. [9:26] There's some really good games this weekend. [9:28] College football, Ohio State, and the Purdue Spoilermakers. [9:33] Oklahoma and Baylor [9:35] Texas A&M and Ole Miss [9:37] and Georgia and Tennessee I'm going to have [9:39] some selections for my service [9:41] this weekend but let's start it off with a game tonight [9:43] and you got the Cincinnati Bearcats [9:45] and they [9:47] are going to have to [9:49] win big and they [9:51] need some style points they can't have [9:53] mediocre to less than [9:55] mediocre efforts like they had the last couple [9:57] weeks against lower level [9:59] teams like Tulane and Tulsa [10:02] Could this be the third straight mediocre effort? [10:04] Well, they travel to Tampa, take on a 2-7 South Florida team. [10:10] Now, this is no ordinary 2-7 team. [10:12] They've got some talent. [10:14] They just haven't been coached up. [10:16] They always have a lot of guys coming in and out. [10:18] They've had a bunch of injuries. [10:20] They have a freshman quarterback, Timmy McClain. [10:23] I think he's really talented. [10:24] They have a kick returner, Brian Battle, [10:26] where he has a couple touchdowns, returning kicks. [10:30] They lost three games last year. [10:32] They didn't have a field goal kicker. [10:33] They have a kicker this year that everything goes right through the middle, [10:37] easy threes, and they don't mess up extra points. [10:40] They've got the athletes just also been undisciplined. [10:44] Cincinnati's top running back, Jerome Ford, game-time decision here. [10:48] Usually about 20,000 half-asleep fans here, [10:52] but I think you're going to have 30,000, 35,000 fans tonight. [10:55] I don't know if this is an upset alert, but I think the back door is wide open. [11:00] The home team, how about this, 9-1 against the spread in South Florida games of late. [11:04] They don't travel well to South Florida, but they play pretty well at home. [11:09] I think Cincinnati's going to win the game, 40-24, but I'm picking the 23.5 points, way too many points.”
45-28 — Cincinnati beat South Florida 45-28, a 17-point margin; South Florida +23.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“The Patriots minus 1 versus the Browns. [12:26] How are you seeing this one shake out, Lee? [12:28] Okay, I think the public is going to play Cleveland because Odell Beckham's gone [12:32] and they're thinking, oh, we've got a locker room that's together now. [12:36] I don't see it that way. [12:37] I think New England's a more sound team. [12:39] They run the ball better. [12:41] They've gone five straight games above 120 rushing yards per game. [12:46] Cleveland banged up. [12:48] Looks like they might be without Chubb because of COVID. [12:52] Offensive line, they lost their offensive tackle. [12:56] Dislocated elbow here. [12:58] And then also look at the matchup sometimes. [13:01] So Cleveland, they like to get to quarterbacks, their defensive ends. [13:04] But they're not going to have too many seven-step drops. [13:07] New England has that short passing game. [13:09] They get rid of the ball quick, and they don't turn the ball over much. [13:14] I just think that this is a great situational play here. [13:17] Also, better coaching staff from New England. [13:19] Those offensive lines and defensive lines for New England are really strong, [13:24] and they don't turn the ball over here. [13:25] New England's the right side, 28-20. [13:28] Level 2 lock. [13:29] There it is. [13:30] Boom, boom. [13:31] Level 2 lock. [13:32] Patriots over the Cleveland Browns.”
45-7 — New England beat Cleveland 45-7; Patriots moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Jets, Sharks, under five and a half goals, minus 110. [3:22] What are your thoughts here? [3:23] Yeah, I talked a lot about the San Jose Sharks a lot this year, [3:26] more than I have in most years, because they're a pleasant surprise. [3:31] I think it's due to two things. [3:33] They got Evander Kane out of the locker room. [3:36] Guy's an absolute cancer, in my opinion, to every team he's ever played on. [3:41] Been accused of domestic abuse, betting on and fixing games [3:46] and fighting his own teammates, and he's even suspended now [3:51] for forging a COVID-19 vaccination card, [3:54] which obviously violated league protocols. [3:57] Second biggest impact here on this season so far [4:01] is they're finally getting some goaltending. [4:03] This season they ranked ninth in the NHL in save percentage at 91.6%. [4:08] That's nothing incredible, but look at where they finished the last couple years. [4:13] 30th last year, 30th the year before. [4:17] James Reimer starts this one. [4:19] He's been lights out this year with a 164 four-year goals against average as well. [4:24] They're getting a Winnipeg team that's not scoring much at home this year. [4:28] I think we see a 2-1 game here, possibly. [4:31] That might even go to overtime. [4:33] I'm going with an under 5.5 total goals, minus 110, [4:37] and the Winnipeg Jets and San Jose Sharks game, level one lock.”
SJ 1, WPG 4 — Winnipeg Jets beat San Jose Sharks 4-1; 5 combined goals stays under the 5.5 line (ESPN box score).
“the Kings' money line, minus 108. [7:20] Break this one down for us. [7:21] Yeah, so this is the worst possible start for the Ottawa Senators. [7:24] They were a young, up-and-coming team heading into the season [7:28] after putting on a strong performance late last year. [7:31] They had some really high expectations coming into the year. [7:36] They've come into the year, and the problem is the puck keeps going into their own net. [7:42] They've lost six of the last seven. [7:44] They've averaged giving up 4.4 goals per game in that span, [7:49] and now they have to face the LA Kings, who are suddenly finding offense up and down the lineup. [7:55] The Kings have won six in a row. [7:57] They're doing it on both ends of the ice. [7:59] Jonathan Quick, who I think is one of the best goaltenders for many, many years, [8:04] has returned to his old form with a 924 save percentage. [8:08] And offensively, they only have two guys with more than five goals, [8:12] but they're getting scoring from everywhere. [8:15] Those second, third, and even the fourth lines are scoring. [8:18] and the Senators' defense, especially their second and third lines, [8:23] just aren't getting the job done. [8:25] I think we're going to control the possession here, betting on the Kings. [8:30] And when you control the possession, control the puck for long periods of time, [8:35] usually good things happen here. [8:36] I think the Kings run away with this one, something like 4-1-5-1 here. [8:41] So I'm going to go with a level two lock, L.A. Kings money line minus 108 here.”
OTT 0, LA 2 — LA Kings beat Ottawa Senators 2-0; Kings moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Northern Colorado minus one. [9:30] Break this one down for us. [9:31] Yeah, so both teams played last night. [9:35] And Northern Colorado, not a lot of people know about them. [9:38] They also have a new coach. [9:40] People are thinking, oh, well, they're going through a rebuilding process. [9:42] No, the coach had been there. [9:44] The last five years, he was the assistant. [9:46] So very familiar with his team. [9:50] He returns his top two scores from last year. [9:53] They have a strong presence inside. [9:55] They rebound the ball well. [9:58] A lot of seniors on the team. [9:59] So a lot of seniors and some freshmen who are also contributing. [10:04] And they beat Pacific last night. [10:07] Hawaii, people look at the score and say, oh, they had a big, easy win, fresh legs. [10:12] They beat Hawaii Hilo. [10:13] So you know they should win this game here at home Hey Northern Colorado favorite here for a reason They laying one point here They are going to face a wide team that 11 last year [10:26] and I just don't think they're good. [10:28] They lost most of their team, ended up graduating. [10:31] And I'm looking at this Hawaii team here, [10:34] and here's what's going on with Hawaii, almost all their programs. [10:37] They don't have the money to recruit. [10:40] Their basketball coaches used to take trips. [10:42] to go to Vegas, different tournaments in California. [10:45] They totally slashed the budget. [10:48] They've had to do it remotely, [10:49] and it's just not paying dividends football and basketball-wise. [10:53] So I like Northern Colorado here. [10:55] Lay the one point here. [10:57] Blowout special. [10:58] First blowout special of the day.”
UNC 81, HAW 78 — Northern Colorado beat Hawaii 81-78, a 3-point margin; Northern Colorado -1 covers (ESPN team schedule/box score).
“Tennessee minus 2.5 versus New Orleans. [12:18] Break this one down for us, Lee. [12:19] Okay, so the line was sitting at 3, and it went down to 2.5, [12:25] and I'm jumping on it at 2.5 because Alvin Kamar may not play in this game, [12:29] or if he does, he may not be 100%. [12:31] He missed practice yesterday due to a knee problem. [12:34] I'm watching this Tennessee team, and this defense is getting better by the week. [12:38] They forced 11 takeaways the last six games. [12:41] They got pass rushers. [12:43] And if you got pass rushers and the one big weakness for Tennessee on the defense has been their back end, [12:48] hey, they only got to cover them for about two, two and a half seconds instead of three and a half for four seconds. [12:54] And I like Jeremy McNichols. [12:55] I think they got to use him more. [12:56] I know they signed Adrian Peterson, but used the pass to set up the run. [13:01] They got receivers galore. [13:03] McNichols has a burst running and also catching the ball to the backfield here. [13:07] I'm picking Tennessee at home. [13:09] I'm laying the two and a half. [13:10] Get it now because, you know, if we see Kamara not play, [13:16] the line's going to go up to three and a half, four. [13:18] Tennessee, I see them winning this game 27-17. [13:21] Lay the two and a half here. [13:23] And Tennessee Titans, we're going to blow out special number two.”
TEN 23, NO 21 — Tennessee Titans beat New Orleans Saints 23-21, a 2-point margin, on Nov 14, 2021; Titans -2.5 does not cover (ESPN box score).
“The Cowboys minus 9 versus the Falcons [15:35] What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? [15:36] Yeah, Dan Quinn looking for a little revenge here. [15:39] Remember? [15:40] Yep. [15:40] He was their head coach. [15:41] I love coaches playing with revenge. [15:44] You know that he studied those films a little extra. [15:47] He knows the personnel on the Falcons really well. [15:51] They might have changed, you know, the offense, but, you know, he knows the key players. [15:55] He knows the quarterback also well here. [15:59] Even with last week's absolutely atrocious loss, Cowboys are 6-2, 7-1 against the spread. [16:07] And Falcons have played six straight games where games have been decided by seven points. [16:13] But I think this is the game where everything just goes bad for Atlanta. [16:18] So they're without Ridley. [16:19] they uh just you know they just don't have i don't think they have the pass rush i don't think [16:25] they have the back end on defense and without ridley don't they don't have the weapons to keep [16:31] up with dallas here so uh you know people we seem to play teams uh when that key player uh when they [16:38] come out and when they come back and that was the case with dac prescott hey wait another week here [16:43] i think dallas was just sitting feeling good about themselves they needed a little humble pie [16:48] Well, they're going to give it back to Atlanta here. [16:51] Dallas, huge 40-14 for Atlanta. [16:55] Blowout special number three.”
DAL 43, ATL 3 — Dallas Cowboys beat Atlanta Falcons 43-3 outright on Nov 14, 2021; Cowboys moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Dolphins plus 7.5 versus the Ravens. [3:55] Break this one down, Lee. [3:56] Okay, so the Ravens are 6-2. [3:58] Let me tell you something. [4:00] They are not a real good team. [4:02] They have a quarterback that can get them out of trouble, Lamar Jackson. [4:06] Keeps rallying them. [4:07] They were down two touchdowns in the game on Sunday In fact they had to go to overtime to win the game Their offensive line not good Their receivers nothing They got a tight end Andrews [4:20] He's great. [4:21] They've got no running backs. [4:23] I mean, they're using like a running back carousel. [4:25] I mean, sometimes you can see four different running backs in one drive. [4:29] So the reason they're using four guys is they don't have that one bell cow back here. [4:35] And then the defense, injuries. [4:36] I mean, injuries all over the place. [4:39] I mean, yeah, you see them come out and they look like the Ravens in the Ravens uniforms, [4:43] but they just don't have the players this year. [4:46] So you're going to lay seven and a half points on a short week against the Dolphins. [4:50] Yeah, Dolphins two and seven, but they're going to have back. [4:54] I believe two is going to play in this game here. [4:57] Their defense is good, solid. [5:00] They've got cornerbacks. [5:01] The best thing about their defensive line, they may not get a whole lot of sacks, [5:05] but they stay in their lane. [5:06] You've got to have a defensive line and linebackers that just are smart. [5:11] You can't just be freelancing. [5:13] So I think Miami wants this game bad. [5:16] If you remember correctly, when they did the total rebuild, [5:18] the first game after the rebuild, Miami, well, they're still rebuilding. [5:22] They lost 59-10. [5:24] They were doing a fake punt. [5:25] I think it was like 35-0, something like that, or 35-7 right before that. [5:29] They did a fake punt right before the end of the half. [5:32] I mean, it was pathetic what they were doing. [5:34] They had their first stringers in there until I think the last series of the game. [5:39] It was bad. [5:40] So short week for Baltimore. [5:42] I think they're overrated. [5:44] I think Miami just hasn't played even close to their best game here. [5:48] Yeah, they beat New England the first game, but they didn't play well here. [5:51] I think it's a good matchup here. [5:53] I think this line should be like 3.5, 4. [5:56] I'll take the 7.5 now because it could go down to 7 or even 6.5 with some late money tomorrow. [6:02] We're going to give it out early. [6:03] the Miami Dolphins here plus seven and a half wrong team favorite boom there it is way to get”
MIA 22, BAL 10 — Miami Dolphins beat Baltimore Ravens 22-10 outright; Dolphins +7.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Florida State minus 19.5. [7:09] That's a lot of points there, Lee. [7:11] Thoughts on this one versus Penn? [7:12] Okay, so a lot of people don't realize this, but the Ivy League didn't play last year. [7:17] So no basketball at all. [7:20] Florida State, they ended up sweeping the first two games in the tournament, [7:25] and then they lost to Michigan. [7:27] This is a team that I watch Florida State all the time. [7:31] They are a tough team to play against. [7:33] Why? [7:33] Because they're long. [7:34] Their defense is different than most teams. [7:36] Most teams, they defend you, and they try to come out, [7:41] and they try to defend you on the three-point line. [7:44] Florida State does, but they want to funnel you to the middle. [7:47] They want you to drive into the middle, and they're long. [7:51] I mean, you get into the lane, and usually their point guards are like 6'4", 6'5". [7:57] Their small forwards are 6'7", 6'8". [7:59] They've got centers that go 7 foot plus. [8:01] You get in there, and it's like all these tentacles are waving at you, [8:06] and you're like, oh, no, what do I do now? [8:08] I've seen it over and over again. [8:11] If you don't have a long team, if you're not really good at creating your own shot, [8:16] you're not going to be good enough to beat them or even stay close here. [8:19] So Penn lost their top two guys. [8:22] They ended up moving on since two years ago Yeah Florida State replacing a few guys but he can recruit Leonard Hamilton Their assistant coach Stan Jones is the guy that actually does a lot of the play calling during the game [8:35] A lot of people don't realize that. [8:37] So I think Florida State can score. [8:39] They are always up there as far as scoring. [8:43] Top 10, top 20 scoring. [8:45] Penn isn't. [8:46] I think this is a blowout special here. [8:48] So Florida State minus 19.5 over Penn.”
FSU 105, PENN 70 — Florida State beat Penn 105-70, a 35-point margin; Florida State -19.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Knicks minus 3.5 versus the Bucs. [11:29] Break this one down. [11:30] What's your thoughts? [11:31] So, here's what happens. [11:33] Every year we see it happen over and over again. [11:36] Team that wins the championship in the NBA. [11:39] Teams that goes to the finals and loses. [11:41] They come out and they are just like sleepwalking through the first couple weeks. [11:45] maybe the first couple months of the NBA. [11:48] So Milwaukee's five and six, and they got injuries. [11:52] Middleton's not going to be playing tonight. [11:54] Lopez, not playing. [11:55] That's two of the top five guys. [11:57] And Lopez actually plays some good defense, and he also spreads the floor. [12:02] So who do they have here? [12:04] They have the New York Knicks. [12:05] And people are thinking, oh, the public, oh, they lost Milwaukee at home last Friday [12:12] against the Knicks. [12:13] So they're going to come back. [12:14] They're going to want to go into Madison Square Garden and get a win, [12:17] but this team is just not that good right now with who they have on deck. [12:21] So you look at who they have on deck, and, yeah, I mean, [12:24] they've got some guys that can score, but they don't play a whole lot of defense. [12:28] So are you going to sit there and count on guys, I mean, like Grayson Allen. [12:33] Grayson Allen last night, he plays no defense. [12:36] He scored 25. [12:37] Do you think that going to happen again back nights Probably not You also got Bobby Portis He scored 19 One out of every seven to eight games is a big scoring game [12:47] Nothing after that. [12:48] You know, coming off the bench after Collin, there's just nothing there. [12:53] So the Knicks are deep. [12:55] They are playing well. [12:57] They're playing with a purpose here. [12:59] I like the way that they're constructed. [13:02] Are they going to win a championship? [13:03] No. [13:04] But, I mean, look at last night. [13:06] I mean, look at who they have. [13:08] Well, they have an extra night to prepare. [13:10] Milwaukee's coming off a back-to-back night. [13:12] They've got to feel pretty good. [13:13] They beat Philadelphia. [13:15] Now the Knicks have an extra night to prepare for this game. [13:18] So I just love Derrick Rose coming off the bench. [13:21] I like Taj Gibson's defense. [13:24] And you want to talk about an emerging star, Emmanuel Quickly. [13:29] I love Quickly. [13:30] I think he's really good. [13:32] 6'3". [13:33] I mean, controls the tempo. [13:35] He can score. [13:36] He plays hard in defense. [13:38] And we're not even talking about their ninth and tenth guy, [13:41] Obi Toppin. [13:42] Obi Toppin's starting to play much better this year. [13:45] Their tenth guy is Alec Burks. [13:47] Alec Burks averages almost eight points a game. [13:49] Last year, I think he was almost ten points a game. [13:52] So I just think they're going to lay it on Milwaukee here tonight. [13:56] I'm going to lay the three points, three, three and a half. [14:00] I think they win this game here. [14:02] Level two lock, New York Knicks over the Milwaukee Bucks.”
NY 100, MIL 112 — Milwaukee Bucks beat New York Knicks 112-100 outright; Knicks -3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“the Ducks money line plus 142 versus the Canucks. [2:28] Break this one down for us. [2:29] Boy, I found two great hockey players. [2:31] And this is the first one. [2:32] So I don't know what has gotten into the Anaheim Ducks, [2:35] but they've found a way to score some goals this year. [2:38] This team has broken the top 20 in scoring just once in the last five years. [2:44] That's why no one talks about them. [2:45] They're not good and they're not exciting. [2:48] All of a sudden, everyone thought this was going to be another rebuild year. [2:52] They're 10th in the NHL in scoring. [2:55] They've averaged three and a half goals per game in their last eight overall. [2:59] Vancouver, 0-6 in the last six as a favorite. [3:02] Anaheim has won 12 of the last 17 up in British Columbia. [3:06] I think the wrong team is favored here. [3:08] I think you're getting a great price on an upstart team with a lot to prove. [3:14] Bet a little, win a whole lot. [3:17] Anaheim Ducks, money line plus 142.”
VAN 2, ANA 3 — Anaheim Ducks beat Vancouver Canucks 3-2 in overtime; Ducks moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Oilers and Red Wings, over six goals, minus 115. [6:03] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:04] Yeah, at some point, Edmonton's offense is going to slow down a little, but not tonight. [6:09] They're first in the NHL, averaging 4.2 goals per game. [6:12] Their power play, which has already broken records in the last few years, is converting on 50% of their opportunities. [6:21] I've never seen this after 10, 11 games. [6:24] All of their offseason moves to improve their forward depth have worked out also. [6:29] They added Zach Hyman. [6:30] and this team has found chemistry early. [6:34] On the other side of things, Detroit, who's supposed to be rebuilding still, [6:38] is really picking up offensively as well. [6:41] Looking like some of their top picks, Lucas Raymond especially, [6:45] are going to work out on the front end. [6:47] If you look at how Edmonton has fared defensively on the road this year, [6:52] yeah, they're first in the NHL in goals allowed per game, [6:56] but they played teams like Arizona, Vancouver, and Vegas, [7:02] and none of those teams can score like Detroit right now. [7:06] This should be a 4-3 or 5-3 score here, maybe even higher. [7:10] So we're going to go with the Edmonton Oilers and Detroit Red Wings here. [7:15] Over six goals. [7:17] Blowout special.”
DET 4, EDM 2 — Detroit Red Wings beat Edmonton Oilers 4-2; 6 combined goals lands exactly on the Over 6 line, a push (ESPN box score).
“Eastern Michigan, minus 5.5 versus Ohio University. [8:17] Thoughts on this one? [8:19] Well, I love Maction and I love offense. [8:21] So Eastern Michigan. [8:22] People think all of a sudden, oh, okay, so they're eligible now for a bowl. [8:27] So, oh, 6-3, you know, they'll just sleepwalk playing 2-7 Ohio. [8:32] I don't think so. [8:33] I think the kids get up for playing on TV. [8:36] Ohio doesn't have any offense, averaging 22 points a game. [8:40] Eastern Michigan averaging 35 points per game. [8:44] So I just see Eastern Michigan, I think they're going to keep rolling here. [8:48] So, I mean, this Ohio defense is also really, really bad. [8:53] They allowed a quarterback to throw for 400. [8:56] Brett Gabbard threw for 492 yards in five touchdowns against them here. [9:02] Eastern Michigan, I like their play calling. [9:05] Love their offense. [9:06] Defense isn't great, but, hey, we're just going to outscore them here. [9:10] So, level one lock. [9:13] Eastern Michigan, minus five and a half at home over Ohio.”
EMU 26, OHIO 34 — Ohio beat Eastern Michigan 34-26 outright; Eastern Michigan -5.5 busts (Wikipedia, citing box score).
“Georgia minus nine versus FIU. [11:45] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [11:46] All right. [11:46] So bad teams in sports and college, it usually starts from above. [11:52] Starts at the athletic director. [11:54] They have a bad one. [11:56] This guy's name is Pete Garcia. [11:57] He's horrible. [11:59] So now we have a football program that hasn't won in 20-something games [12:04] against Division I opponents. [12:07] They only beat Long Island. [12:08] this year in college football. [12:10] Now you have a college basketball team. [12:13] And things started off pretty good the first couple years for Jeremy Ballard, [12:17] 39-27. [12:18] They were actually 8-3 at one point last year. [12:21] Then what happened? [12:22] They lost their final 14 games, Division I basketball. [12:28] Backed against some really bad teams in their conference, too. [12:33] Their lone win down the stretch came against Florida Memorial. [12:36] I think it's like a vision three program. [12:40] Their offense, horrible. [12:43] They can't shoot threes. [12:47] 316, that's it. [12:48] Number 316 shooting three-pointers. [12:51] So they like to take a lot of three-pointers. [12:54] They like to miss a lot of three-pointers. [12:56] Who's the coach of Georgia? [12:57] Tom Crean, yeah. [12:59] Used to be at Indiana going down to Georgia, [13:02] and now he's replacing a bunch of players. [13:04] But he got some nice transfers. [13:06] So I don't think they're going to be real good in SEC play, [13:10] but he got a kid from Gonzaga, Aaron Cook. [13:14] Got another kid, Jabri Rahim. [13:18] This guy, kids from Virginia, I've seen him before. [13:21] And just picking off some kids. [13:24] Noah Bauman from USC, you might know about him. [13:27] I think that this is going to be a lock here. [13:29] They're only going to lay nine points at home here. [13:32] I think Georgia wins this game here probably by 15 to 25 points here. [13:38] Level 2 lock, Georgia Bulldogs over FIU.”
UGA 58, FIU 51 — Georgia beat FIU 58-51, a 7-point margin; Georgia -9 does not cover (ESPN team schedule/box score).
“Duke minus one versus the Wildcats. [14:27] Break this one down for us, Lee. [14:29] Yeah, so it's Coach K's final season. [14:33] There's going to be a lot to be made of it. [14:34] Facing another legendary coach in John Calipari, [14:38] who's looking to take the stench out of last year's 9-16 year. [14:43] Duke was only 13-11, but boy, did he recruit. [14:47] I mean, he's got a ton of top 30 guys here. [14:50] So I think it's going to be a nice situation for him. [14:55] Problem here for the Wildcats. [14:56] their transfer guard, C.J. Frederick. [15:00] Looks like he's probably not going to play listed as doubtful here. [15:03] Neutral court, Madison Square Garden. [15:06] But I just think that I love this kid for Duke, [15:11] Paolo Blanchero. [15:12] Carol Blanchero is number one recruit here. [15:17] And, I mean, this kid is going to be something special. [15:20] So, you know, I just think that you get a great coach here, [15:24] Coach K, really good usually out of the box. [15:26] He wants to send a message here. [15:29] And I don't think Kentucky can defend the three-point line. [15:33] I think Duke's by far the better team here. [15:35] So, yeah, it's an opening game here, opening night, [15:40] and Coach K gets it done here. [15:42] Like I said, watch Banchero here. [15:45] 6'10", he's a skyscraper, has a nice jumper, even really good defensively. [15:53] So I think Duke's the right side here, lay the one point here. [15:56] level three lock duke over kentucky opening night college basketball”
DUKE 79, UK 71 — Duke beat Kentucky 79-71 at the Champions Classic in Madison Square Garden, an 8-point margin; Duke -1 covers (Wikipedia, citing box score).
“We're going to talk about the Bulls [7:36] minus 1.5 versus the Nets. [7:38] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:40] I think the line's off. I think Brooklyn [7:42] should have come the favorite. 1, 1.5. [7:44] Two points. Why do I say that? [7:46] Chicago goes into Philadelphia. [7:48] They got all this momentum. [7:50] People are talking about them. [7:52] And they drop both games in [7:54] Philadelphia. I mean, they lose by [7:56] five on Wednesday, and then on Saturday, they lose by nine. Why is it happening? Well, a bunch [8:02] of reasons. So they can't rebound. Second to last in rebounds per game. So they got some nice name [8:09] players. They got some scorers. DeMar DeRozan. They got Zach Levine. These two guys, they fill [8:15] it up, but they don't rebound. They're also horrific defending the three-pointer. And what [8:22] does Brooklyn do? They're one of the top five three-point shooting teams in the NBA. We won [8:27] against Brooklyn early in the year. Had Miami a week and a half ago. We said, oh, Miami's going to [8:32] go in there and win outright. They did. Since that time, though, they've won five straight. [8:37] So it takes young teams, and I like Chicago's team. I think they're going to come together. [8:41] They have to find themselves. They need to get some type of production from their number three [8:47] and four guy. You can't just have two guys. Brooklyn, they have a bunch. We're talking about [8:51] five or six role players. [8:53] They understand their role. [8:54] Some of them used to be stars, [8:56] but they're content doing what they're doing. [8:58] They need to get more from Lonzo Ball. [9:00] They need to get more from Vukovic. [9:02] These guys need to contribute more. [9:05] They need to score more. [9:06] They need to defend more. [9:07] They need to rebound more. [9:08] It's a team effort here. [9:10] So Brooklyn's come together. [9:12] Plus one and a half. [9:14] Wrong team favored. [9:16] Brooklyn, that's over Chicago tonight.”
CHI 118, BKN 95 — Chicago Bulls beat Brooklyn Nets 118-95, a 23-point win; Nets +1.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“The Steelers minus 6.5 versus the Bears. [10:13] What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? [10:14] Okay, so I think the line's going to go up. [10:16] I think it's going to go to 7. [10:18] I don't often advocate buying points, but for some reason, if you have 7, [10:23] If it goes up to seven, you can buy it down. [10:25] You're only laying 120 to win 100. [10:28] Why? [10:29] It's a low total. [10:30] This is not going to be a high-scoring affair. [10:33] In fact, you want to talk about low-scoring totals? [10:36] Total's 39 in this game. [10:38] So if they win by seven points and you didn't buy the half point, [10:42] well, you've got to push. [10:43] So I think there's a good chance, one out of ten or more, [10:47] that they're going to win the game by seven or more. [10:50] So when I look at this game, I look at how is Chicago going to score on Pittsburgh? [10:56] I don't see it. [10:57] I mean, Justin Fields might eventually be good. [10:59] I like him. [11:00] But it's going to take time. [11:02] He doesn't have the right coach. [11:04] I think Nagy's going to get fired either in the next couple weeks [11:07] or at the end of the year. [11:08] They can't throw the football. [11:10] He just doesn't have any weapons around him. [11:12] His offensive line stinks. [11:13] Doesn't have any running backs due to injuries. [11:15] and, you know, the receiving core just isn't any good. [11:19] In fact, they're on pace for the least amount of passing yards since 2003. [11:26] So I'm going to take Pittsburgh. [11:28] Not saying they're a high-scoring act, but they're smart. [11:32] They figured out in the last game. [11:33] They ran the ball 44 times. [11:35] They give it to their start, young running back, 23 times. [11:40] So, you know, just a great situation here. [11:43] They're playing conservative. [11:45] They're not turning the ball over. [11:47] Big Ben still has enough weapons at receiver and tight end. [11:51] What we're going to do here, we're going to lay the six and a half points. [11:54] Even if it's seven, we'll buy it down to six and a half here. [11:59] Blowout special, Pittsburgh Steelers over the Chicago Bears.”
PIT 29, CHI 27 — Pittsburgh Steelers beat Chicago Bears 29-27, a 2-point margin; Steelers -6.5 does not cover (ESPN box score).
“We're going to roll Maple Leafs and Kings over five and a half goals, minus 120. [14:44] What says you, Lee Sterling? What's going on? What's your thoughts on this one? [14:47] All right. This is your type of game here. Yeah, buddy. [14:50] So this is going to be a lock, but I think it might be over early. [14:54] Let's leave the goalies out of this one. These are two of the hottest offenses in the NHL right now. [14:59] Last five games, each of these teams, each offense has scored at least three goals or more, [15:05] except for once. [15:06] They're both red hot coming into this game here. [15:10] And Los Angeles was supposed to be coming onto the scene as a playoff [15:15] contender this year. [15:17] So they have all the motivation in the world to continue to put up some [15:20] goals here. [15:21] Both teams power plays converting more than 20% of the opportunities. [15:25] You get above 20%, you're doing well. [15:28] I think we see some sustained offense all game long here. [15:33] I think it's going to be a 4-3 final either way here. [15:36] Stay away from the game. [15:37] Let's just take the over 5.5 goals, minus 120, [15:42] in the Toronto Maple Leafs-LA Kings game, level one lock.”
TOR 1, LA 5 — LA Kings beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5-1; 6 combined goals clears the Over 5.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Kings, money line, minus 123 versus New Jersey. [3:12] Break this one down for us, Lee. [3:13] Yes, we're starting to hit the 10-game threshold for teams across the league. [3:18] and we're seeing some trends that are worth following and taking advantage of. [3:22] One of those trends is the New Jersey Devils' offenses generating [3:27] and how they're being rewarded. [3:31] This team has a young forward group that doesn't have a ton of depth, [3:35] and they rely on their top two lines for most of their scoring. [3:38] So when Jack Hughes, their captain, went down with a shoulder injury, [3:42] I was curious to see how they would produce. [3:45] They haven't. [3:46] They've averaged just two goals, just barely above two goals without them right now, [3:51] despite ranking fourth in expected goals. [3:54] And tonight is not the night to regress to where they should be. [3:58] They're facing a Kings team that ranks ninth in five-on-five save percentage [4:03] and has won their last three games at home while giving up just two goals per game. [4:08] They're starting to build some momentum in L.A. [4:11] And I think they continue here. [4:13] everyone's talking about the Lakers [4:16] because they're folding [4:17] losing games and just look terrible but let start talking about the LA kings here i think they win by three one or four one final score so la kings money line minus 123”
LA 3, NJ 2 — LA Kings beat New Jersey Devils 3-2 in overtime; Kings moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“The Cowboys minus 10 versus the Broncos. [6:17] Break this one down for us, Lee. [6:19] So most people, I ask three friends of mine in the gym, [6:22] what's the Broncos record? [6:23] Every one of them thought the Broncos had a losing record. [6:26] They are that under the radar. [6:28] They're 4-4. [6:29] Their season's not over. [6:30] So people think because they traded Vaughn Miller, they've given up. [6:34] Okay, maybe they're not going to make the playoffs. [6:36] I'm not asking them to win three of the next four games. [6:39] I'm not even asking them to win this game. [6:41] All they've got to do is cover. [6:42] I think their defense is no slouch. [6:45] Last eight games that they've played all eight this year, [6:49] five of the eight games they've given up 17 points or less. [6:52] Only one game have they given up more than 30 points here. [6:55] Dallas, I identified them from the start. [6:57] I thought they were going to be one of the top five or six teams in the NFL this year. [7:01] Well, what have they done? [7:03] They are now 6-1 straight up, 7-0 against the spread. [7:07] Let me repeat that, 7-0. [7:09] You will never see a team go 16-0 or 17-0 against the spread. [7:14] It's never been done. [7:16] It's not going to be done. [7:17] Every team, you're going to see the best teams will be like 13-4 against the spread. [7:22] More probably, 12-5. [7:25] There's always some regression. [7:26] Teams start shooting for you here. [7:28] I think Denver's defense is good. [7:30] What does Denver do? [7:31] They just slow, methodical drives. [7:34] They don't snap the ball with eight, ten seconds to go. [7:36] They snap it with one or two. [7:38] Teddy Bridgewater slowly moves the ball down the field. [7:41] He'll scramble for a couple first downs. [7:44] They don't have many home run hitters on offense. [7:46] I think Dallas wins and survives 24-23, but Denver covers.”
DAL 16, DEN 30 — Denver Broncos beat Dallas Cowboys 30-16 outright; Broncos +10 covers easily (ESPN box score).
“The Clippers minus 2 versus the Timberwolves Break this one down for us Lee Okay lazy scheduling by the NBA [8:55] So these two teams are doing a back-to-back. [8:59] That's right, a back-to-back. [9:01] And believe it or not, both games are in Minnesota. [9:05] So we saw this last year. [9:08] It happened, and there's a trend that I noticed that really helped forward the whole season also. [9:16] One other thing that I look at, teams that shoot 60%. [9:20] Remember that trend we were talking about last year, too? [9:22] Yep, yep. [9:23] So what happened in the game when they played Wednesday? [9:27] The Clippers shot 60.3% and 58.3% from three-point land. [9:34] Public is going to think, oh, well, Minnesota getting a couple points here, [9:38] playing at home, rematch, they'll come back and they'll win. [9:41] Not going to happen here. [9:43] Timberwolves, even though they get another crack at them, Paul George, [9:46] he's on fire. [9:47] He's one of these guys that can stay hot for five, six, seven games in a row. [9:52] And I just don't trust this Minnesota defense. [9:57] Their defense is uneven. [9:59] and also something I look at when I look at teams here, [10:05] tough team to trust on offense. [10:07] They don't share the ball enough. [10:09] So D'Angelo Russell, game-time decision. [10:12] We're hearing some complaining. [10:13] Some of their stars wouldn't be shocked if this team, [10:17] they dismantle it maybe in a month or two here. [10:20] So I'm going to lay the two-and-a-half points [10:22] and take the Clippers here. [10:25] Level three lock, L.A. Clippers. [10:29] minus the two and a half, get the job done over the Minnesota Timberwolves.”
LAC 104, MIN 84 — LA Clippers beat Minnesota Timberwolves 104-84, a 20-point margin; Clippers -2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“The highlight is minus 200 versus Iron Chandler So these two fighters bring it [13:21] I doubt whether we're going to see this fight go to even the third round. [13:27] I just think that they gave Michael Chandler too many opportunities. [13:31] So he was fighting in different organizations and finally came over from Bellator. [13:36] He just absolutely destroyed Dan Hooker, first-round TKO. [13:42] And what did they do? [13:44] They gave him a championship fight against Charles Oliveira [13:47] in the main event UFC 262. [13:50] He was beaten up. [13:52] He was ground and pounded with a left counter hook, [13:56] and he suffered a second-round TKO defeat here. [14:01] So I think he's good. [14:04] He's not at Justin Gaethje's level. [14:06] Gaethje is a better wrestler. [14:09] He's a better striker, a much better kicker. [14:13] So I think he is just also quicker. [14:17] Chandler has power, and who knows? [14:20] One punch, anything can happen. [14:24] But Gaethje, I think, is hungry. [14:26] I think Gaethje wants to fight for the title again, [14:29] and I think he's just more well-rounded. [14:32] He gets the job done here. [14:34] Never done it before. [14:35] I'm going to release a level four lock, Justin Gaethje, minus 200, over Iron Michael Chandler.”
Justin Gaethje defeated Michael Chandler by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) at UFC 268 on Nov 6, 2021; Gaethje moneyline wins (Wikipedia UFC 268 results).
“The Hawks plus one and a half versus the Jazz. [3:42] Break this one down for us, Lee. [3:43] So Atlanta, they lose last night. [3:46] And they lose at Brooklyn. [3:48] Just wasn't one of their days. [3:49] couldn't get shots to drop, but they might tonight. [3:54] And here's what's going on. [3:55] So, Rego Bear, out for this game. [3:58] Mitchell, listed as questionable. [4:01] So, there's a chance that, you know, if he doesn't play, [4:07] and lately we've seen a bunch of guys listed as questionable. [4:11] They don't play. [4:12] If Donovan Mitchell doesn't play with an ankle injury, [4:15] and even Royce O'Neal, the game-time decision with an ankle injury, [4:19] If one or two of those guys or both guys don't play, [4:22] this line could close Atlanta five or six favorite Right now Atlanta getting one and a half points at home I know they playing off a back but I like Atlanta here [4:35] I think they might boat race Utah. [4:39] Utah, best record in the league tied with Miami. [4:42] I like Atlanta here, plus the one and a half points. [4:46] Wrong team favorite. [4:47] Boom, that's how we get started right there.”
UTA 116, ATL 98 — Utah Jazz beat Atlanta Hawks 116-98, a 18-point win; Hawks +1.5 does not cover (ESPN box score).
“the Colts who are 3-5 or minus 10.5 versus the Jets who are 2-5. [7:17] What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? [7:19] So the interest in this Jets and Colts game on a scale of 1-10 [7:26] compared to Super Bowl III, when Super Bowl III was a 10, a 1. [7:32] Doesn't mean we can't cash a ticket here. [7:35] So Carson Wentz was awful last week. [7:37] They had a 14-0 lead. [7:38] They blew it. [7:39] You know they've got to be ready to go here. [7:41] The Jets, Mike White. [7:43] Yeah, Mike White from Fort Lauderdale, Florida. [7:45] Western Kentucky in his first start. [7:47] Everything went right. [7:49] I think they just caught Cincinnati napping here. [7:52] I think Indianapolis is going to be ready. [7:54] I think Jonathan Taylor, they're going to give the Jets a large dose of him, [7:59] and then they'll use play action. [8:01] Even though Carson Wentz is not a guy I want to back early and often, [8:04] I think we'll have a good enough night here. [8:06] And the Jets, here's what's telling about this team. [8:09] they got lucky last week they've only run for more than 100 yards once the entire season it's [8:16] not going to happen a second time here later 10 and a half points here blowout special number one [8:23] here indianapolis colts minus 10 and a half they should win this game something like 34 13 boom”
IND 45, NYJ 30 — Indianapolis Colts beat New York Jets 45-30, a 15-point margin; Colts -10.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Dolphins minus six versus H-Town. [9:15] What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? [9:17] Miami can't win a close game. [9:18] And they've been up against a really tough schedule. [9:22] The Texans are winless on the road this year. [9:26] They've been outscored 133-29 here, [9:29] and 21 of those 29 points came against the Browns much earlier in the season. [9:34] Their defense on the road ranked 32 out of 32 teams. [9:40] 32nd in yards allowed per play. [9:43] Their road offense, not much better. [9:46] 29th or worse in all major categories here. [9:50] The Dolphins, like I said, at least played a tough schedule. [9:53] Been in plenty of these close games here. [9:57] Ugly duckling here, matchup of the week. [10:00] But, hey, sometimes these ugly games, easy win here. [10:03] I think Miami wins this game with defense and some timely offense here. [10:09] I like Miami 24-10 over Houston, late at six.”
MIA 17, HOU 9 — Miami Dolphins beat Houston Texans 17-9, an 8-point margin; Dolphins -6 covers (ESPN box score).
“Islanders money line, minus 128 versus the Canadians. [12:12] Break this one down for us, Lee. [12:14] Okay, bet you didn't know this stat. [12:16] Even some hockey aficionados didn't figure this out. [12:20] The Islanders are starting this season off on a 13-game road trip. [12:26] Let me repeat that. [12:27] A 13-game road trip due to the arena construction in Long Island. [12:32] Brutal start to their schedule. [12:34] But look, all of a sudden, 3-2-2 so far. [12:38] They haven't lost in regulation since October 16th to my Florida Panthers. [12:44] Well, you know, I claim them once they start winning. [12:47] And Florida Panthers might be one of the top two or three teams right now in the NHL. [12:52] And they're coming in this one off a loss to Nashville where they really should have won the game. [12:59] Now they have had five days of rest. [13:02] You don't see that too often in the NHL between their Saturday game and this one. [13:07] So they're ready to go on the flip side. [13:10] I'm not seeing much from Montreal. [13:13] They're 3-3 in their last six games after that abysmal start, [13:16] but they're not beating any Stanley Cup contenders over there. [13:21] Their three wins were against Detroit who awful San Jose not much better And then Detroit again And now they playing their fourth game in six nights [13:33] I'm not going to overthink this one. [13:35] I think we're going to see a 3-1, 4-1 win here for the Islanders. [13:39] So level one lock, New York Islanders money line, minus 128.”
NYI 6, MTL 2 — New York Islanders beat Montreal Canadiens 6-2; Islanders moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“under five and a half total goals, minus 107. [14:23] Break this one down for us, Lee. [14:25] Yeah, so we've seen how badly injuries can affect the team's forward group [14:30] of the Vegas Gold Knights this season. [14:32] They're missing Mark Stone, Max Petruity, William Carlson, Nolan Patrick, [14:37] and they just traded away Alice Touch here in that big deal for Jack Eichel overnight. [14:44] That's 40% of their goals from last year missing from this team right now. [14:48] So how did it look without these guys in their last showing? [14:53] Well, they put up just 26 shots on net [14:56] and only eight high-danger chances against the Leafs in that 4-0 loss. [15:01] Then on the other side, Ottawa hasn't scored goals all season. [15:05] Their power play hasn't clicked yet, [15:07] and their young forwards just haven't been putting up many goals at all. [15:11] They play to the pace of their opponents, [15:13] and they aren't going to be fast-paced here against a depleted Vegas roster. [15:20] I think we're going to see a 2-1, 3-1 final score here in this game here. [15:25] So we're going to go with a level one lock again. [15:29] Ottawa Senators, Vegas Golden Knights under five and a half goals. [15:34] Total goals here, minus 107. [15:36] Boom, there it is right there. [15:38] Under five and a half total goals in this one, Senators, Golden Knights. [15:42] and that's another level one lock for the second lock of the day.”
VGK 5, OTT 1 — Vegas Golden Knights beat Ottawa Senators 5-1; 6 combined goals exceed the Under 5.5 (ESPN box score).
“Central Michigan plus 10.5 versus Western Michigan. [5:09] Break this one down for us, Lee. [5:11] Okay, so my clients last night, we had Eastern Michigan. [5:13] We started off matching with a win, and I think it's going to continue with another win tonight. [5:19] Eastern Michigan was getting nine points. [5:22] Dynamic offense. [5:23] Well, not a great defense, but they came to play. [5:26] All excited for playing on national TV. [5:28] I think the same here holds true for Central Michigan. [5:31] So this is an offensive team that's ranked number 31 in college football. [5:35] They average almost 450 yards a game. [5:39] So four games into the season, they switch quarterbacks to Daniel Richardson. [5:44] He's thrown for 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions. [5:47] They've got a running back, Lou Nichols. [5:50] Not Lou Nichols, Lou Nichols III. [5:53] He's rushed for 915 yards. [5:56] He had 192 yards last week. [5:59] They've got a receiver, Khalil Pimpleton, 38 catches for almost 600 yards. [6:04] So they can score, and I just don't see laying 10 points. [6:10] So Western Michigan is good. [6:12] Everyone is judging them to a certain level because they beat Pitt. [6:17] So, you know, it's just one of those games. [6:19] It happens sometimes where a team from the ACC or, well, not too often the SEC, [6:24] but ACC team or, you know, a Big Ten team, they lose to a Maction team. [6:29] So I'm not going to fall for the trap here. [6:33] It might be high score and we're going to stay away from the total, [6:35] but I like Central Michigan. [6:36] Plus 10, wrong team favorite, number one.”
CMU 42, WMU 30 — Central Michigan beat Western Michigan 42-30; a 12-point margin covers Central Michigan +10.5 (ESPN).
“The Spurs plus one versus the Mavs. [7:31] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:33] Here's something surprising. [7:34] So Dallas, just 28th offensively. [7:38] They're not getting it going offensively. [7:40] they've got some major injuries uh going on going on with this team christian porzingis [7:46] can be out for probably another couple games maxi kleber he's not playing uh he's an important [7:52] part of their rotation and then also trey burke so three of their top eight guys aren playing miami steamrolled i think they had something like 46 points in the second quarter Just absolutely bullied them here Might come down to coaches [8:07] And if it does, Greg Popovich against Jason Kidd. [8:10] Are you kidding me? [8:12] That's worth like four or five points possibly right there. [8:16] The Spurs are getting one. [8:17] Dallas is coming off playing last night and losing. [8:20] San Antonio is coming off playing their worst game. [8:22] And Popovich even said it was their worst effort. [8:25] But I'm going to take the Spurs here to bounce back. [8:29] I think they have a better chance of bouncing back with a good coach. [8:32] They don't have, you know, many star players. [8:34] Got a lot of good, solid players. [8:36] And I think they're going to come around and shock some people. [8:39] I'll take the one point here. [8:40] San Antonio Spurs plus one. [8:44] Wrong team favorite, number two.”
DAL 109, SAS 108 — Dallas Mavericks beat San Antonio Spurs 109-108; Spurs lost by exactly 1, so +1 produces an adjusted-line push (ESPN).
“The Chiefs plus one versus the Packers Lee are you sensing a little bit of overreaction in this game a little how about a lot the overnight line on Sunday night before [12:12] the Chiefs played on Monday was two and a half points that uh they were going to be favored [12:19] now it's swung three and a half points and Green Bay is a one point favorite just like the overreaction [12:25] Last week, Green Bay beat an Arizona team that wasn't all that. [12:29] I mean, they didn't come to play. [12:32] I think they woke up Kansas City. [12:34] All the talk we're hearing this week other than the trade deadline [12:37] and the rug situation is, is Kansas City finished? [12:40] So I think they're going to be motivated. [12:43] Their pass rush was good against the Giants. [12:45] They had three sacks in that game, could have had many more. [12:48] I think they're going to be on to the Green Bay offense. [12:53] They're going to be fired up. [12:54] It's going to be at home, which is a big advantage. [12:56] It's great to see two great quarterbacks go after each other. [13:00] So Kansas City's healthy here. [13:02] They've been disrespected here. [13:04] Overreaction. [13:05] When you overreact, the public is just getting destroyed. [13:09] These Vegas books and also the offshore sports books [13:13] and the different state sports books are cleaning up this year. [13:17] We're not going to fall for the trap here. [13:19] We're taking Kansas City here. [13:21] They're going to move to 5-4. [13:22] or wrong team favorite number three, Kansas City.”
KC 13, GB 7 — Kansas City Chiefs beat Green Bay Packers 13-7 (Rodgers-less Packers) on Nov 7, 2021; a 6-point margin covers Chiefs +1 (ESPN).
“Iowa minus 12 versus Northwestern. [3:27] Give us the details, Lee. [3:28] Break this one down. [3:29] Okay, you see this line and you're like, wow. [3:32] Iowa doesn't score a lot. [3:33] You know, they're in the mid-20s scoring. [3:36] Northwestern at home as a home dog, usually a good play. [3:40] But let me tell you something. [3:41] Northwestern is done. [3:43] They are horrible. [3:44] They're already rotating quarterbacks. [3:46] They can't throw the football whatsoever. [3:49] So I think Iowa's one of those teams just, they got to number two. [3:52] They weren't the second best team in the country. [3:55] They exceeded expectations. [3:57] Now all of a sudden, you know, they're off the radar. [4:00] This is where they'll do their best work. [4:02] Their defense will absolutely shut down Northwestern. [4:05] At one point, Northwestern was using Ryan Helensky. [4:08] But I think he was like one for six for five yards, and they finally pulled him. [4:13] So they're just, I mean, we're going to look back and you're going to say, [4:17] wow, why didn't we bet this game sooner? [4:20] I think the line's going to close 14, so I want to bet it right now. [4:24] Look at the last couple games. [4:26] Northwestern lost 33-7 against Michigan, 41-14 against Minnesota on Saturday. [4:34] Minnesota's down to their four-string running back. [4:36] Yeah they beat Rutgers That the total outlier of the season But before that they lost 56 to Nebraska They lost to Duke Duke Duke is awful [4:48] 30-23. [4:50] This is a bad, bad team going nowhere. [4:53] They have no playmakers on offense. [4:56] None on defense. [4:58] Even their special teams are good. [5:00] I will bury a team like this. [5:02] I see like a 38 or 41-7 final. [5:05] lay the 12 right now this way you get it before it probably moves up to 14 boom there it is bet a”
IOWA 17, NU 12 — Iowa actually played Northwestern on Nov 6, 2021 (not Nov 2) and won 17-12; a 5-point margin doesn't cover Iowa -12 (Wikipedia 2021 Iowa Hawkeyes season).
“Detroit, plus 5.5 versus the Bucks. [7:40] Break this one down for us, Lee. [7:41] Okay, it's post-championship blues for the Milwaukee Bucks. [7:46] I mean, this is what happens when you win a championship. [7:49] Everything goes right. [7:50] You don't have injuries. [7:52] You just get every close game. [7:54] You win a lot of those. [7:55] and hey, hats off to him. [7:58] But now all of a sudden, injuries. [8:00] So DiVincenzo, he's out for this game. [8:04] Drew Holiday, out for this game. [8:06] Brooke Lopez, out. [8:07] Chris Middleton, out for this game. [8:09] The public was all over betting. [8:11] Cade Cunningham in his first game over the weekend. [8:15] And what happened? [8:16] He goes 1-8 from the field, 0-5 from three-point land. [8:20] Yeah, even he was probably nervous, didn't feel comfortable. [8:23] Just talk about it all the time. [8:25] to bet players, to bet teams the second game they come in. [8:31] So we're going to play Detroit here. [8:35] We're going to play them plus five and a half. [8:37] We're going to play them with confidence here. [8:39] Milwaukee just, I mean, they can't score. [8:42] They can't defend anyone. [8:44] So, you know, hey, I know that Detroit had trouble last year matching up [8:49] with this Milwaukee team, but this isn't the same team right now. [8:53] One of the best players from Milwaukee is Grayson Allen. [8:56] He doesn't scare anyone at all here. [8:58] And Milwaukee, how about this, 19th in the league in shooting, 19th, [9:03] averaging 108 points per game this year. [9:07] I'm taking Detroit. [9:08] They're my wrong team favorite. [9:10] Wouldn't surprise me if they win the game outright here over Milwaukee.”
MIL 117, DET 89 — Milwaukee Bucks beat Detroit Pistons 117-89; Detroit lost by 28, well outside +5.5 (ESPN).
“The Astros minus 130 versus the Braves. [10:05] Break this one down for us. [10:07] Yeah, so I'm enjoying this postseason, even though my team, the Marlins, is probably never going to be there, [10:16] at least for a long, long time. [10:17] So I talk a lot about Max Fried. [10:20] Love the guy. [10:22] And also we talked about Luis Garcia last week before game two. [10:26] This matchup for Max Fried is his worst nightmare. [10:29] First off, he really has some pitch roll on the road this postseason. [10:33] He shut down Milwaukee in his debut, [10:35] but now he's given up 11 earned runs in the last nine and two-thirds inning [10:39] against the Dodgers and the Astros. [10:42] What has killed him is the second inning. [10:43] both starts, giving up a combined seven earned runs in the second inning alone. [10:48] And this Houston team is not one you want to get behind early and often. [10:53] When they get ahead early in games, they run away with it. [10:56] When they face lefties like Freed, they really have hit him and other lefties really hard. [11:02] In fact, they're hitting 300 with 18 extra base hits in the postseason against lefties. [11:08] Then there's Luis Garcia. [11:10] We talked about him, too. [11:11] He's really an emotional pitcher. [11:13] who has shown how much the crowd affects him in big games. [11:17] Career, 92 to 94-mile-an-hour fastball pitcher. [11:20] Then in game six against the Red Sox and game three against the Braves, [11:24] he was reaching 97 miles per hour on his fastball out of nowhere. [11:28] The thing is, that work didn't help him on the road against Atlanta, [11:33] but it will here against this team. [11:37] So I just think he really feeds off the crowd. [11:40] They've been amazed tonight, [11:41] And I think he gives them a solid five or six innings of work. [11:46] I've got a blowout from Houston Astros tonight. [11:49] Maybe a 6-2, 7-1 final here. [11:53] Houston Astros money line, minus 130, blowout special.”
ATL 7, HOU 0 — Atlanta Braves shut out Houston Astros 7-0 in World Series Game 6 to clinch the title; Astros moneyline loses outright (ESPN).
“Rangers money line minus 118. [14:54] Break this one down for us, Lee. [14:56] Yeah, I'm not buying what the Vancouver Canucks are selling this year. [15:00] They came into the season. [15:01] They're finally healthy after an injury to a couple of their key players [15:06] and COVID-filled 2020 season. [15:10] Then they acquired Connor Garland. [15:12] They were supposed to be this high-flying offense that could drive play [15:16] and improve their possession numbers, especially at home. [15:19] Well, they're nine games into the season. [15:21] They're 0-3 in their first three games at home, and they're 28th in the NHL in scoring so far, scoring just 2.33 goals per game. [15:31] They haven't looked good at even strength whatsoever, and they're not getting bailed out by their goaltenders like they were at times last season. [15:40] New York, on the other hand, hasn't played to their full potential yet, especially on the power play, but at least they have someone to rely on defensively. [15:49] A lot of people don't know this name, but Adam Fox, defenseman, [15:54] he just signed a huge extension yesterday. [15:56] He won the Norris Trophy as the best defenseman in the league last year. [16:00] He's not even 24 years old. [16:02] Everyone talks about goal scorers, but defensemen are so important. [16:06] They're also getting some really solid goaltending so far. [16:09] They're third in the NHL goaltending in save percentage. [16:13] They're also giving up just 2.11 goals per game. [16:16] I've watched Vancouver a lot this year, [16:18] And I just don't think they're going to challenge this New York defense enough to pull this one out. [16:24] 4-1 or 4-2 final here for the New York Rangers here. [16:29] Level 2 lock. [16:30] New York Rangers. [16:31] Money line. [16:32] Minus 118.”
VAN 3, NYR 2 — Vancouver Canucks beat New York Rangers 3-2 in overtime; Rangers moneyline loses outright (ESPN).
“Giants plus 10 versus the Chiefs. [8:10] Break this one down for us, Lee. [8:12] Yeah, so as soon as I saw a line, I'm like, what? [8:15] 10 points? [8:16] You have a 3-14 that is favored by 10 points. [8:20] And, hey, I understand they've got all kinds of weapons on offense, [8:23] but their defense is miserable. [8:25] They are bottom five in almost every statistical category. [8:29] Now they're going to face a team that, hey, may not have a good record, [8:33] but all of a sudden they're getting healthy, looked really good last week. [8:38] They're getting some key players back. [8:40] I know Saquon Barkley is not going to be playing this game, [8:43] But it looks like they'll also have some guys that are, we're talking about some key guys that have been contributing over the years. [8:52] And I think that are really good players that are probably going to be playing this game at wide receiver. [8:59] I mean Sterling Shepard looks like he will be back for the game I don know if he a difference maker but certainly a real strong receiver [9:08] Kadarius Toney, this guy, he is a difference maker out of the slot, returning kicks. [9:14] So, you know, you're getting guys like that back, you know, you can score. [9:19] So I think, yeah, even Evan Ingram, tight end, will be back. [9:23] So three of their top five guys that have been missing the last couple of weeks will be back here. [9:28] Jones will be quarterbacking him. [9:30] He looked good last week. [9:32] And Kansas City can score, yeah, they can score 25, 30, maybe even 35. [9:38] So if you hold them under, let's say, 35 points, I think the Giants are going to score mid-20s on Kansas City. [9:46] So we're going to take the plus 10 points here.”
KC 20, NYG 17 — Kansas City Chiefs beat New York Giants 20-17; Giants lost by only 3, covering +10 (ESPN).
“Hornets minus five and a half versus the Cavaliers. [10:32] Break this one down for us. [10:34] So these two teams already played. [10:35] They played Friday, October 22nd. [10:38] Played in Cleveland. [10:40] Both teams had similar stats. [10:41] One team shot 51% from the field. [10:44] The other 52%. [10:45] But Charlotte out-rebounded them. [10:48] just flat out just outscored them. [10:52] And Charlotte can put the ball in the hoop. [10:55] They're deep. [10:56] They go like nine or ten deep here. [10:58] They are right now number one in the NBA. [11:01] A lot of people don't realize this. [11:03] They are number one in the NBA in scoring. [11:06] Cleveland Cavaliers ranked 24th. [11:09] They're coming off a game on the West Coast in Phoenix. [11:12] Now they've got to travel and play Charlotte. [11:15] Okay, Charlotte played last night, [11:16] but all of a sudden the ball is starting to get hot. [11:19] I think he's going to be a top 15, 20 player by the end of the season. [11:23] He's already making a statement, scoring, assists. [11:29] His team just feeds off him. [11:30] In the second half, last night he caught fire. [11:33] I like Charlotte here. [11:34] I'm laying the five and a half. [11:36] I'm rolling with a better team at home, a team that can put it in the basket here. [11:41] I'm going with this game here. [11:43] blowout special [11:45] Charlotte Hornets minus the five [11:47] and a half over the hapless Cleveland [11:49] Cavaliers. Right there.”
CLE 113, CHA 110 — Cleveland Cavaliers beat Charlotte Hornets 113-110; Charlotte lost outright, so -5.5 busts (ESPN).
“The Lightning and Capitals, over six goals, plus one-on-one. [14:43] Break this one down for us, Lee. [14:44] Yeah, so it looks like Tampa Bay is starting to turn things around. [14:49] Good timing here because they're going to need to against the Washington Capitals. [14:54] Tampa Bay has won their last two games by a combined score of 10-2. [14:58] We know they might be the most talented team in the league, [15:00] and when they get rolling, look out. [15:02] They're also well-rested coming to this one with three nights off. [15:07] Rarely. [15:07] You see this in the NHL, but three nights off after the last game. [15:11] Last week, Washington still red hot offensively. [15:14] offensively. In fact, they've scored 11 goals in the two road games this season so far, [15:19] and they're facing the 29th ranked home defense in the NHL here. So these two teams played each [15:26] other a few weeks ago as well. So there's some familiarity here. I think it's going to allow [15:32] these teams to open the ice up quite a bit. Keep an eye on special teams here. Alex Ovechkin [15:37] is really pushing this power play forward for Washington, and he should score one to two goals [15:44] himself tonight. So I'm going with [15:46] the over six goals. [15:48] Tampa Bay, Washington Capitals [15:50] plus 101 here. [15:52] Level one lock.”
TB 3, WSH 2 — Tampa Bay Lightning beat Washington Capitals 3-2; combined 5 goals stays under the Over 6 total (ESPN).
“WTF, wrong team, favorite NFL action right here. The Denver Broncos going up against the Washington football team. The Broncos started out red hot, 3-0. They on a four losing streak The Washington football team just not very good Two and five on the season BetOnline live for this one The Broncos minus three versus the football team Thoughts on this one, Lee? So, Teddy Bridgewater, obviously, is not 100%. I mean, you can just watch the game and tell that. You know, maybe it's time to go to Drew Locke. I mean, not making the playoffs. So, you've got to find out what you've got with Drew Locke. And then if he gets in trouble, I think Teddy Bridgewater bringing him off the bench would be a nice situational play for them. But I just think that they're done. They knew at the end of the game on Monday night, wow, just stop the run. I'm sorry, it was Thursday night. Just stop the run. Just get the ball back. Couldn't do that. So there's a team that play calling I think is terrible. They're missing receivers here. And Washington, for some reason, hasn't put it together, but they've got weapons. And McLaurin, dangerous receiver. They've got Gibson running back, catching the ball at the backfield and running. And, you know, the quarterback, you know, even though he's not well-known, he's doing a nice job right now in the defense. I think they've underperformed here. So I think they can get on more big plays here. Also, maybe special teams could be the difference. I like the Washington special teams over Denver's. Give me Washington 25-24.”
DEN 17, WAS 10 — Denver Broncos beat Washington Football Team 17-10; Washington moneyline loses outright (ESPN).
“the association, the Miami Heat against the Charlotte Hornets. The Heat, they're 3-1. The Hornets, they're 4-1. BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Heat minus six versus the Hornets.”
MIA 114, CHA 99 — Miami Heat beat Charlotte Hornets 114-99; a 15-point margin covers Heat -6 (ESPN).
“Peter Yan, a.k.a. No Mercy, versus Corey Sanhagen, the Sandman. No Mercy is 15-2, and the Sandman is 14-3. BetOnline.ag line for this one. No Mercy, minus 210 versus Sandman.”
Petr Yan beat Cory Sandhagen by unanimous decision (49-46 x3) at UFC 267 on Oct 30, 2021; Yan moneyline wins (Wikipedia UFC 267 results).
“Taking a look at the NHL, the San Jose Sharks and the Montreal Canadiens. The Sharks, they're 4-2 on the season. The Canadiens, 1-6. BetOnline.ag line for this one. the Sharks' money line, minus 125 versus the Canadians.”
MTL 4, SJ 0 — Montreal Canadiens shut out San Jose Sharks 4-0; Sharks moneyline loses outright (ESPN).
“Continuing in the NHL, the Philadelphia Flyers and the Vancouver Canucks. The Flyers on the season, three wins, three losses, and an overtime loss. The Canucks, three wins, a loss, and an overtime loss. BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to go Flyers versus Canucks, over six goals, minus 120.”
PHI 2, VAN 1 — Philadelphia Flyers beat Vancouver Canucks 2-1 in Vancouver; combined 3 goals stays under the Over 6 total (ESPN).
“Coastal Carolina going up against Troy. Coastal Carolina 6 on the season Troy 4 on the season BetOnline line for this one Coastal Carolina minus 16 versus Troy”
CCU 35, TROY 28 — Coastal Carolina beat Troy 35-28; a 7-point margin doesn't cover Coastal Carolina -16 (ESPN).
“the Arizona Cardinals and the Green Bay Packers the Cardinals 7-0 the Packers 6-1 dealing with some COVID issues betonline.ag line for this one Arizona minus six and a half versus the Packers”
GB 24, ARI 21 — Green Bay Packers beat Arizona Cardinals 24-21 on Thursday Night Football; Arizona lost outright, so -6.5 busts (ESPN).
“the association the Miami Heat and the Brooklyn Nets I like this one on paper I'm gonna like it on the court as well the Heat 2-1 the Nets 2-2 betonline.ag line for this one the Nets minus 4.5 versus the Heat”
MIA 106, BKN 93 — Miami Heat beat Brooklyn Nets 106-93 at home; margin of 13 covers Heat +4.5 (ESPN).
“The Braves, they're up 1-0, going up against the Astros. So the betonline.ag line for this one. Astros money line, minus 112 versus the Braves.”
HOU 7, ATL 2 — Houston Astros beat Atlanta Braves 7-2 in World Series Game 2; Astros moneyline wins outright (ESPN).
“Toronto Maple Leafs going up against the Chicago Blackhawks, the Maple Leafs on the season. Two wins, four losses, and an overtime loss. The Chicago Blackhawks, no wins, five losses, and an overtime loss. BetOnline.ag line for this one. Maple Leafs minus one and a half goals, plus 125 versus the Blackhawks.”
TOR 3, CHI 2 — Toronto Maple Leafs beat Chicago Blackhawks 3-2 in overtime (William Nylander OT winner); a 1-goal win doesn't cover Maple Leafs -1.5 (ESPN).
“The Cleveland Browns and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Browns on the season 4-3. The Steelers 3-3. BetOnline.ag live for this one. We're going to roll Cleveland and Pittsburgh under 42.5 points.”
PIT 15, CLE 10 — Pittsburgh Steelers beat Cleveland Browns 15-10; combined 25 points stays under 42.5 (ESPN).
“Minnesota Wild. going up against the Vancouver Canucks, the Wild. They're 4-1 on the season. The Canucks, they're three wins, two losses, and one overtime loss as well. BetOnline.ag, line for this one. Minnesota Wild, money line, minus 115 versus the Canucks.”
MIN 3, VAN 2 — Wild beat Canucks 3-2 on the road; the Minnesota moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“the LA Lakers, and the San Antonio Spurs. You hear those two team names on paper? Amazing. Records right now? Not so much. The Lakers 1-2 on the season. The Spurs 1-2 on the season. BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Lakers minus 4.5 versus Spurs.”
LAL 125, SAS 121 — Lakers won in overtime at San Antonio 125-121, four points short of the -4.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“The Houston Astros, they're back in this thing, going up against the Atlanta Braves. Game one, World Series action. and betonline.ag live for this one. We're talking Astros, Braves, over eight and a half runs, plus the 100.”
ATL 6, HOU 2 — Braves beat Astros 6-2 in World Series Game 1; combined 8 runs falls under the 8.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Blowout special NHL action. How about the Carolina Hurricanes and the Toronto Maple Leafs? The Hurricanes, 4-0 on the season. The Maple Leafs 2-3-1. Two wins, three losses, and an overtime loss. BetOnline.ag line for this one. Hurricanes money line, minus 113 versus the Maple Leafs.”
CAR 4, TOR 1 — Hurricanes beat Maple Leafs 4-1 on the road; the Carolina moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“A little NBA action, the Boston Celtics and the Charlotte Hornets. Celtics were that team last season. that we were waiting for them to go on a jump-started run, never really seemed to happen. Right now, Boston Celtics 1-2 on the season. The Hornets, LaMelo Ball in his bright green suit is 3-0. BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Celtics minus one versus the Hornets.”
BOS 140, CHA 129 — Celtics beat Hornets 140-129 in overtime; Charlotte +1 busts (ESPN box score).
“The Seattle Seahawks and the New Orleans Saints. The Seahawks are 2-4. The Saints are 3-2. BetOnline.ag, line for this one. We're going to roll with the total here, Lee. 41.5 is the points. How are you feeling this one? Break it down for us. Okay, so I'm not going to play the game. I just think it's a tough game. You know, Seattle home is tough. New Orleans just so up and down. So I think the total is a better way to attack this game. Why do I say that? It's going to be raining, but it's just drizzling. NFL quarterbacks have huge hands, so they have no trouble throwing the ball when it's drizzling here. Seattle, all kinds of weapons at receiver. I think they're going to throw the ball here against New Orleans secondary. And I think, on the other hand, I think Seattle's defense is just plain weak here. So they haven't been able to put it together here. So this total is low here, like 41, 41 and a half. I'm playing the over here as a level two lock.”
NO 13, SEA 10 — Saints beat Seahawks 13-10 on Monday Night Football; combined 23 points falls under the 41.5 total (ESPN box score).
“NFL action, it is week seven already. Incredible. The New England Patriots going up against the New York Jets. Patriots, two and four. Jets 1 BetOnline line for this one The Patriots minus 7 versus the Jets”
NE 54, NYJ 13 — Patriots routed Jets 54-13; New York +7 busts badly (ESPN box score).
“Marvin Vittori, the Italian Dream, going up against Paolo, the Eraser, Costa. The Italian Dream is 17-4-1, and the Eraser is 13-1. And if I remember correctly, it's got a few issues making weight, or had some issues making weight. BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Italian Dream, minus 170 versus the Eraser. Break this one down for us, Lee. So we're seeing the line go up. Start at about 150. It's at 170. You want to get on this line right now. I think it could close, possibly close to 200. And I'm not saying Paulo Costa is not talented. The problem with the eraser is I just think since he got beat down by, and they faced the same opponent recently in the last year, year and a half, since he faced Israel Adesanya, and he got, I mean, knocked out with a left hook and then the ground and pound near the end of the second round. He has not been the same. And I just think he feels that maybe he's just not there yet. I think mentally losing his first right, he's never recovered. So, you know, he didn't make weight, and it wasn't even close. So you're going to have to fight at a higher classification just because he was not disciplined. So that's a real problem for Costa. He's going to fight. Vittori, who fought Adesano, did lose a unanimous decision. but it went to a decision. He fought him toe-to-toe. I think that Vittori trains really hard. I think that he's got all kinds of weapons here. I think in his mind, he thinks he's going to be a champion, and so do I here. I'm laying the 170. We're going with Marvin, the Italian dream, Vittori over Paulo.”
Marvin Vettori defeated Paulo Costa by unanimous decision (48-46 on all three cards) at UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori on Oct 23, 2021; the Vettori moneyline cashes (Wikipedia, corroborating ESPN/UFC record).
“The Boston Red Sox going up against the Houston Astros. In this series, the Astros are currently up 3-2. We're going to go with my style of game in this one. We're going to go with the first five innings. Red Sox, first five innings, money line, minus 110. That's the betonline.ag line for that one.”
HOU 5, BOS 0 (HOU 1, BOS 0 through 5 innings) — Astros led Red Sox 1-0 through five innings and won the game 5-0 in ALCS Game 6; the Boston first-5-innings moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“NHL action right here. The Carolina Hurricanes and the Montreal Canadiens. This is almost complete opposites. Carolina, the Hurricanes, they're 2-0. The Canadians, they're 0-4. They're 0-4. BetOnline.ag line for this one. Hurricanes, money line, minus 114 versus the Canadiens.”
CAR 4, MTL 1 — Hurricanes beat Canadiens 4-1 on the road; the Carolina moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“hockey action the Detroit Red Wings and the Calgary Flames the Red Wings their two wins no losses and an overtime loss and the Flames they have no wins a loss and an overtime loss betonline.ag line for this one Red Wings money line plus 117”
CGY 3, DET 0 — Flames shut out Red Wings 3-0 in Detroit; the Red Wings moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“The Denver Broncos and the Cleveland Browns. The Broncos, three and three. Browns, three and three. BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Broncos, plus two, plus 100 versus the Browns.”
CLE 17, DEN 14 — Browns beat Broncos 17-14 on Thursday Night Football; Denver +2 falls one point short (ESPN box score).
“The San Jose State Spartans headed to Vegas to take on the unlv rebels san jose state they three and four the rebels they 0 for 0 and 6 marcus arroyo the head coach has not won a game yet he's 0 and 12 in his uh tenure as the unlv head coach bet online.ag line for this one san jose state minus four minus 111 versus rebels”
SJSU 27, UNLV 20 — San Jose State won at UNLV 27-20, covering the Spartans -4 spread (ESPN box score).
“NHL action of St. Louis Blues against the Vegas Golden Knights. St. Louis Blues, they're 2-0 on the season. Golden Knights, they're 1-1 on the season. BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Blues money line plus 115 versus the Golden Knights.”
STL 3, VGK 1 — Blues beat Golden Knights 3-1 on the road; the Blues moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“WTF number two, NBA action. Matter of fact, we're going to hit you with a couple NBA games. WTF number two, Sacramento Kings and the Portland Trailblazers. Season opener right here. BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Sacramento Kings plus five, minus 105 versus the Trailblazers.”
SAC 124, POR 121 — Kings won outright at Portland 124-121 in the season opener, easily covering Sacramento +5 (ESPN box score).
“WTF number three. Some more NBA action. Matter of fact, this is a season opener as well. Also out west, as you mentioned, the Denver Nuggets against the Phoenix Suns. BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Nuggets plus six, minus 110 versus the Suns.”
DEN 110, PHX 98 — Nuggets won outright at Phoenix 110-98 in the season opener, covering Denver +6 (ESPN box score).
“Number four, college football action. We got Coastal Carolina and App State. Coastal Carolina, 6-0. App State, 4-2. This is a really good college football game that normally you don't see a game that's this good coming up on a Wednesday night. BetOnline.ag line for this one. Coastal Carolina, plus 5.5, minus 110 versus App State.”
APP 30, CCU 27 — Appalachian State won at Coastal Carolina 30-27 on a game-winning field goal, comfortably covering App State +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Golden State Warriors against the L.A. Lakers. I mean, you want to talk about a season opener. How about this one? BetOnline.ag line for this one. Golden State plus three and a half, minus 113 versus the Lakers.”
GSW 121, LAL 114 — Warriors won at Lakers 121-114 in the season opener, covering the Warriors +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Blowout special number one NHL action, the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Florida Panthers. Tampa Bay is 2-1. The Florida Panthers is 2-0. BetOnline.ag line. For this one, we're going to roll over six goals, minus 116. Lightning versus Panthers.”
FLA 4, TB 1 — Panthers beat Lightning 4-1; combined 5 goals falls under the Over 6 total (ESPN box score).
“The Pittsburgh Penguins and the Dallas Stars. The Penguins, 2-0-1. Two wins, no losses, and an overtime loss against the Dallas Stars that are 1-2 on the season. BetOnline.ag live for this one. Penguins money line, minus 126 versus Stars.”
DAL 2, PIT 1 — Stars beat Penguins 2-1 in a shootout; the Penguins moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“the Pittsburgh Panthers against the Clemson Tigers Pittsburgh Panthers are 5-1 the Clemson Tigers 4-2 what is going on with them betonline.ag live for this one the Panthers minus 3 versus the Tigers”
PITT 27, CLEM 17 — Pittsburgh won at Clemson 27-17, covering the Panthers -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Blowout special NHL action. The St. Louis Blues and the Arizona Coyotes. The Blues on the season, 1-0. The Coyotes, they are 0-1-1. They got no wins, one loss, and one overtime loss. BetOnline.ag, line for this one. Blues, money line, minus 166 versus the Coyotes.”
STL 7, ARI 4 — Blues beat Coyotes 7-4; St. Louis moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“How about the Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox? They're all tied up at one in their series. Fantastic action in October when it comes to baseball. I love it. Every single year is so much fun. BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to talk about the Astros' team total over four and a half runs, minus 112 versus the Red Sox.”
BOS 12, HOU 3 — Red Sox routed the Astros 12-3 in ALCS Game 3; Houston scored only 3 runs, below its team total Over 4.5 (ESPN box score).
“Lock of the day, number two NFL action Monday night football. The Buffalo Bills and the Tennessee Titans. The Bills are looking good, man. They're cooking with grace right now. 4-1 on the season. The Titans 3-2 on the season. I think it's kind of a suspect, Tennessee Titans 3-2. But, hey, it's 3-2, so you can't get mad at some Ws. BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to go with Buffalo versus Tennessee, over 53.5 total points.”
TEN 34, BUF 31 — Titans beat Bills 34-31; combined 65 points cleared the Over 53.5 (ESPN).
“Major League Baseball action, ALCS, the Red Sox, and the Houston Astros. BetOnline.ag line for this one. Red Sox money line plus 138.”
HOU wins series 4-2 — Astros beat Red Sox 4-2 in the 2021 ALCS, clinching the series in Game 6 (HOU 5, BOS 0) on Oct 22; the Boston series moneyline busts (ESPN).
“Lock of the day number one, Chicago Blackhawks and the New Jersey Devils. The Blackhawks 0-1. The Devils haven't got on the ice yet. They're 0-0. BetOnline.ag. Line for this one. We're going to roll over six goals, minus 118.”
NJ 4, CHI 3 — Devils beat Blackhawks 4-3 in overtime; combined 7 goals cleared the Over 6 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Aiton Miller, minus 220, versus the Ghost Pepper Gonzalez. Let's break this one down for us, Lee. So Jim Miller has been around since 2008. He's one of these guys that's been close to the mountaintop, just can't get there. So I believe that they're setting him up to go out on top. And, I mean, it's not like his skills have diminished much. He's just in a really tough division. And that happens sometimes. He has a 32-16 record. He did drop his last two fights, but he's fought some of the toughest fighters around. He even beat Clay Gouda in 2009, fought in some other really good fighters. You'll know these names. Champion Dustin Poirier and took him to a decision. It was a majority decision, so it means that one of the judges had it as a draw, and the other two had it for Poirier. Fought Anthony Pettis to a decision here. Lost to Dan Hooker, who's really tough. I mean, the list goes on and on. Now he's going to fight a kid. It's his first fight. Eric Gonzalez has never fought in the UFC. Has a record of 14-5, but fought in lower levels here. And seven of his last eight fights have gone to a decision here. He only has one TKO, and that was in a third round against a guy with a 7-5 record. I mean, he fought some guys with just horrific records when he was starting his career. So one of the guys he beat had a 13-31 record. How do you hang around for 44 fights with a 13-31 record? That's the epitome of a guy just collecting a paycheck or tomato can. So I think he's going to put them away. I think this is his send-off fight here. I'm going to lay it here. Sometimes you've got to lay it if you want to play it here. level three lock in the UFC.”
Jim Miller knocked out Erick Gonzalez in round 2 (0:14) at UFC Fight Night 195 on Oct 16, 2021, earning Performance of the Night; the moneyline covers (Wikipedia). (Miller def. Gonzalez by KO, round 2 (0:14))
“The Dolphins, 1-4 on the season. Jaguars 0-4. They're 0-5 on the season. BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Dolphins, minus three versus the Jaguars.”
JAX 23, MIA 20 — Jaguars beat Dolphins 23-20 in London; Miami's -3 margin fell just short of covering -3 (ESPN).
“WTF, wrong team favorite NFL action Thursday night football, kicking off week six, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Eagles are 2-3 on the season. Tampa Bay is 4-1 on the season. BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Eagles plus 6.5 minus 110 versus the Buccaneers.”
TB 28, PHI 22 — Buccaneers beat Eagles 28-22; Philadelphia lost by 6, covering the +6.5 spread (ESPN).
“NHL action. Nashville Predators and the Seattle Kraken. Of course, it's early, early on in the season. The Predators haven't even played a game yet. The Kraken, they're 0-1 on the season. BetOnline.ag line for this one. Predators, Moneyline, minus 119 versus the expansion team, Seattle Kraken. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so home teams, dominant early so far. 6-1 in the season's first two opening nights here, and they went 5-0 last night. Seattle Kraken got their first game out of the way on Tuesday night. They looked pretty good. They had more high danger chances, expected goals, and overall shot attempts at five versus five than the Vegas Golden Knights did in the season opener. But I think they were in a pretty good spot in that game. Vegas made some major changes in the offseason that impacted the players and the organization, And they had just an absolutely depressing loss in the postseason last year when they went down to Montreal They obviously had more talent It felt like a dark cloud followed them all summer here but Seattle had a ton of people betting against them this season They felt like the underdogs coming in. Now they've gotten their first game out of the way. They have a long trip in the plane here from Vegas to Nashville for this game. Predators were in a similar situation coming into the year as Seattle. They had some changes in the offseason, like Vegas. They were just dubbed as a team that's going to miss the playoffs for the first time in a long time. I think Nashville will be up for this game, and now the newness of Seattle's franchise has worn off a little bit. They might be in a letdown here. Remember, they came all the way back from down 3-0 to tie that game in Vegas the other night before losing. So I think their emotions were probably running high for a while after that game. And Nashville, NHL best 6-1 in the last seven season openers. I expect them to move to 7-1 here. Blowout special. They could win by two, three goals here. Nashville Predators, money line minus the 121.”
SEA 4, NSH 3 — Kraken beat Predators 4-3; Nashville moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Major League Baseball action. Game 5, National League Division Series. The Giants, the Dodgers, both teams. 109 total wins on the season. First one to 110 is going to move on. BetOnline.ag line for this one. Giants money line. Minus 104 versus the Dodgers.”
LAD 2, SF 1 — Dodgers beat Giants 2-1 in NLDS Game 5 to win the series 3-2; San Francisco moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Florida against LSU. Florida, the Gators are 4-2. LSU is 3-3 on the season. BetOnline.ag line for this one. Florida, minus 10 versus LSU.”
LSU 49, FLA 42 — LSU beat Florida 49-42; Florida's margin (-7) fell short of the -10 spread (ESPN).
“how about this dibbling and dabbling in the nhl winnipeg the jets going up against the anaheim ducks season opener for both teams here betonline.ag line for this one winnipeg money line minus 141 at the ducks”
ANA 4, WPG 1 — Ducks beat Jets 4-1; Winnipeg moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Another season opener. The New York Rangers at the Washington Capitals. BetOnline.ag line for this one. The New York Rangers plus 113 at the Capitals.”
WSH 5, NYR 1 — Capitals beat Rangers 5-1; New York moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Lock of the day, closing things out strong. Do you want to talk about closing strong? This is the way to close it strong. NFL action right here. The Baltimore Ravens, they're 4-1. The LA Chargers are 4 BetOnline line for this one Baltimore minus three versus the Chargers Thoughts on this one Lee Well if you watching a lot of games and every game like I do Brandon Staley, the new head coach for the Chargers, I don't think there's any question he's the best first-year head coach. You know, outside of some kicking problems, they'd be right now 5-0. They were beaten at the gun, 56-yard field goal by Dallas' Greg Zerloin. But, I mean, the kicking game has cost them. But other than that, I mean, they played great on the road, 35-15-4, the last 54 games as a road dog. That's 70% over a long extended period here. Ravens, short week, have to get motivated again. And, you know, outside of Lamar Jackson, the only real weapon on offense, the running backs aren't doing anything, is Andrews. Mark Andrews is a tight end. And who do they have? Chargers have maybe the best strong safety to guard him in Derwin James. So I like the matchup here. I just think also so many weapons at receiver for the Chargers and backside of the backfield. Baltimore can't cover anyone on the backside, can't tackle anyone if you watch that game. So give Lamar Jackson all the credit in the world. I just don't think he can do it two weeks in a row here. He's going to have to play maybe even better this week to win. I like the Chargers. I think they win this game here 34-28. Wow, there it is right there. And, of course, Lamar Jackson, he wants to hear that. He wants someone to think that they can't do it another week in a row. That dude, he wears a chip on his shoulder. He plays. He's a perfect Baltimore Raven, I'll tell you that. And I'll tell you, man, the more he steps up and makes plays like he did on Monday Night Football, the more of a believer he makes out of me. The dude's incredible. Oh, man, almost 400 passing yards, and really from the last drive of the third quarter, the fourth quarter in overtime, where I think they went a period like 12, 13, 14 plays in a row where they passed the ball every time. So we're going to make the Chargers a level two lock.”
BAL 34, LAC 6 — Ravens beat Chargers 34-6; LA Chargers moneyline busts (ESPN).
“How about Jacksonville Jaguars and the Miami Dolphins? They got one win between the two teams. Jacksonville is 0 for 5. Miami's 1 for 4. 1 in 4. BetOnline.ag live for this one. We're going to roll Jacksonville versus Miami. Over 45.5 points, minus 110.”
JAX 23, MIA 20 — Jaguars beat Dolphins 23-20 in London; combined 43 points fell short of Over 45.5 (ESPN).
“how about this hockey gets started tonight the vegas golden knights against the seattle kraken and that's happening in vegas the atmosphere is incredible uh betonline.ag line for this one the golden knights versus the kraken under five and a half goals minus 125 opening night action”
VGK 4, SEA 3 — Golden Knights beat Kraken 4-3; combined 7 goals busted Under 5.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to just talk about the Columbus Blue Jackets. BetOnline.ag. Live for this one, we're going to roll Columbus Blue Jackets under 76.5 points, minus 110.”
81 points (37-38-7) — Columbus finished the 2021-22 NHL season with 81 points, exceeding the Under 76.5 line (ESPN standings).
“We're going to talk some NHL action right here. Going to talk about the Chicago Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup. BetOnline.ag line for this one. Chicago Blackhawks 45-1 to win the Stanley Cup.”
84 points (37-35-10), missed playoffs — Chicago Blackhawks did not win the 2022 Stanley Cup; they missed the playoffs, finishing the 2021-22 season with 84 points (37-35-10) (ESPN standings).
“The Dodgers and Giants all knotted up at one apiece right now. betonline.ag line for this one dodgers giants over seven runs minus 115”
SF 1, LAD 0 — Giants beat Dodgers 1-0 in NLDS Game 3; combined 1 run fell well short of Over 7 (ESPN box score).
- Baltimore Ravens -1 (teased from -7) won
- Over 40 (teased from 46) won
“Lock of the day, NFL action, the Baltimore Ravens and the Indianapolis Colts, two teams that look exactly opposite. Baltimore 3-1, Indy 1-3. And in this game right here, Lee's betonline.ag line Going to roll with a two-team, six-point teaser. Baltimore minus seven with a total of 46 points. How are you rolling with this one? How are you breaking this one down? Okay, first off, so it was maybe the first week we've seen for either team didn't have an injury. It's crazy. Usually one or multiple injuries So both teams are getting a little bit healthier Both teams actually had good outings last week Indianapolis won their first game They dominated Miami, controlled the line of scrimmage. And Carson Wentz is now a couple weeks out from that injured ankle injury for both ankles. So he looked a little bit better last week and didn't seem to take too many shots. And so I think he's going to be able to score, you know, 17, 20 points. And then on the other side, Baltimore, Lamar Jackson, I mean, he should roll here. I mean, so you got two really good coaches here, two coaches that will have their teams prepared. But Lamar Jackson is going to score 20, 24, 27, 30 points on everyone. So I can't figure out. I don't want to lay seven points here with Baltimore. I'm not sure if I want to take Indianapolis. So this is what I'm going to do. I think Baltimore is going to win the game. So I'm going to take them down from seven down to one point. That's going to be the first part of the two-team six-point teaser. And the total is 46. Let's take it down to 40 and play the over. So we're going to go with Baltimore minus one and the over 40 points.”
BAL 31, IND 25 — Ravens beat Colts 31-25 in overtime; Baltimore covered the teased -1, and the combined 56 points cleared the teased Over 40 (ESPN).
“We're going to talk the best rivalry in baseball, Giants, Dodgers. They get things kicked off tonight. Both teams over 100 wins in the regular season. And of course they battled back and forth during the regular seasons Here we go BetOnline line for this one Giants versus Dodgers Under 7 minus 115”
SF 4, LAD 0 — San Francisco beat LA 4-0 in NLDS Game 1 on Oct 8, 2021; combined 4 runs stays under the 7-run total (ESPN).
“A little college football action. Alabama going up against Texas A&M. Roll Tide, 5-0 on the season. The Aggies, 3-2 on the season. BetOnline.ag line for this one. Alabama, minus 17.5 versus the Aggies.”
TAMU 41, ALA 38 — Texas A&M upset Alabama 41-38 on Oct 9, 2021; Alabama -17.5 busts, losing outright (ESPN).
“The Tennessee Titans going up against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Titans 2-2 on the season, coming off a loss to the Jets. And Jacksonville, well, they're 0-4. 0-4 on the season. Of course, Urban Meyer is really all the conversation when it comes to the Jaguars. BetOnline.ag line for this one. Tennessee minus 4.5 versus the Jaguars.”
TEN 37, JAX 19 — Tennessee beat Jacksonville 37-19 on Oct 10, 2021; Jaguars +4.5 busts by 13.5 (ESPN).
“blowout special, number one major league baseball action, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox. The Rays and the Red Sox. Here we go. BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Rays money line, minus 146 against the Red Sox.”
TB 5, BOS 0 — Tampa Bay beat Boston 5-0 in ALDS Game 1 on Oct 7, 2021; Rays moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“blowout special number two, NFL action. You know, week five of the NFL season is starting tonight. I barely could believe that I'm saying that myself. The L.A. Rams and the Seattle Seahawks. This is a pretty good Thursday night game right here. The Rams are 3-1 on the season. Seahawks 2-2 on the season. BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Rams minus 2.5 versus Seahawks.”
LAR 26, SEA 17 — LA Rams beat Seattle 26-17 on Oct 7, 2021; Rams -2.5 covers by 6.5 (ESPN).
“how about this one lee chris el guapo guitierrez he is 16 13-3-2, going up against Felipe Caleras, who's 10-2. BetOnline line for this one El Guapo minus 250 versus Felipe Caleras Thoughts on this one Lee A lot of people don realize it that El Guapo has not lost a fight in the UFC So here's a guy that's four wins, no loss, and one of his fights was a draw. So he beat a good fighter in Andre Uel in his last fight out. So I think that this guy is scary good. I don't know if he's going to end up winning the title, but probably the best kicker I've ever seen. I mean, he can totally take down someone's leg. So what he does is, I mean, he comes at you so many different directions, kicking, punching, has great submissions. He's won fights every single way that you can imagine. So I just think that he's a different level here. Calaris, here's a guy, you know, he wins one, then he loses one, wins one, loses one. So, yeah, he might be good in submissions, but I don't think he's going to have that opportunity at all here. I'm going to lay the 250 here. Level one lock here. Chris El Guapo Gutierrez, he gets the job done. UFC fight night on Saturday.”
Chris Gutierrez defeated Felipe Colares by split decision (30-27, 30-27, 28-29) at UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez on Oct 9, 2021 (Wikipedia).
“WTF, ball team favorite, a little NFL action. this game. Really, man, I got my eye on this one in a major way. The Cleveland Browns and the LA Chargers, both teams on the season, three and one, gotten off to a really good start. The Chargers, of course, just knocked off the Raiders on Monday night football. And before that, they beat the Kansas City Chiefs. So they're feeling pretty good about themselves right now. BetOnline.ag line for this one. Cleveland plus one, minus 102 versus Chargers.”
LAC 47, CLE 42 — The Chargers beat Cleveland 47-42 on Oct 10, 2021; Browns +1 busts by 4 (ESPN).
“How about this? How about the Clippers and the Kings? The LA Clippers, the Sacramento Kings. I'm really intrigued by the Sacramento Kings team, by the way. They do have some nice young players that I'm paying attention to. BetOnline.ag line for this one clippers minus two and a half minus 110 versus those sacramento kings”
SAC 113, LAC 98 — Sacramento beat the LA Clippers 113-98 on Oct 6, 2021 in the preseason; Clippers -2.5 busts by 12.5 (ESPN).
“National League wild card action, the Dodgers and the Cardinals. I mean, just the names alone let you know how it's going to go down. BetOnline.ag. line for this one we're going to roll Dodgers Cardinals under seven and a half runs minus 120”
LAD 3, STL 1 — LA Dodgers beat St. Louis 3-1 in the NL Wild Card Game on Oct 6, 2021; combined 4 runs stays under the 7.5 total (ESPN).
“Here is the blowout special, at least blowout special. Number one, going to talk some WNBA playoffs. They're going on right now. The Connecticut Sun going up against the Chicago Sky. Right now, the Sky are up in the series 2-1. Connecticut was an amazing team in the regular season. BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Sun, minus 2.5 versus Sky.”
CHI 79, CON 69 — Chicago beat Connecticut 79-69 on Oct 6, 2021 to win the WNBA semifinal series 3-1; Sun -2.5 busts by 12.5 (ESPN).
“Blowout special number two on today's show. We had some WNBA action. Now we have some NBA action. preseason basketball, man. We're doing it today. We got the Memphis Grizzlies and the Milwaukee Bucks. BetOnline.ag line for this one. Memphis minus three against the defending champs.”
MEM 87, MIL 77 — Memphis beat Milwaukee 87-77 on Oct 5, 2021 in the preseason; Grizzlies -3 covers by 7 (ESPN).
“This is the lock of the day. We're going to roll with this. BetOnline.ag line. Red Sox-Yankees over eight runs, minus 110.”
BOS 6, NYY 2 — Boston beat New York 6-2 in the AL Wild Card Game on Oct 5, 2021; combined 8 runs matches the 8-run total exactly (ESPN).
- Minnesota Vikings -1 (teased from -7) won
- Dallas Cowboys -1 (teased from -7) won
“Talking some NFL action. Two-team six-point teaser right here. We're going to be talking the Vikings in Detroit and Giants in Dallas. The Vikings not doing too good on the season. They're 1-3 so far on the season. The Detroit Lions 0-4. The Giants are 1-3. The Cowboys are 3-1. We're going to roll with this. Like I said, two-team six-point teaser. So betonline.ag line, we're going to go the Vikings minus seven to minus one and the Cowboys minus seven to minus one.”
Minnesota beat Detroit 19-17 and Dallas beat the NY Giants 44-20, both on Oct 10, 2021; both teased -1 spreads cover (ESPN).
“Going to jump right into the blowout special, a little NHL action, a little early on the NHL action as it gets started the season next Tuesday. But I want to talk about this game because the lines are probably going to change. Tampa Bay Lightning and the Pittsburgh Penguins. BetOnline.ag line for this one. Tampa Bay Money Line, minus 170 over Pittsburgh.”
PIT 6, TB 2 — Pittsburgh beat Tampa Bay 6-2 on Oct 12, 2021 (2021-22 season opener); Lightning moneyline busts (ESPN).
“Lock of the day, NFL action, Monday night football, closing out week four. Can you believe that we're already a quarter of the way through the NFL season? I mean, man, are you serious? Four weeks down after tonight's game. So here we go. Raiders, they're 3-0. Chargers, 2-1. AFC West battle going down tonight. BetOnline.ag line. And for this one, we're going to roll over 51.5 points, minus 110.”
LAC 28, LV 14 — Chargers beat Raiders 28-14 on Oct 4, 2021; combined 42 points falls under the 51.5 total (ESPN).
“Major League Baseball action. The Tampa Bay Rays against the New York Yankees. How about this? 98 and 61 for the Rays. Yankees 91 and 68 on the season. BetOnline.ag. line for this one, Tampa Bay money line, plus 113.”
TB 4, NYY 3 — Tampa Bay beat the Yankees 4-3 on Oct 1, 2021; Rays moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“Blowout special sticking with the major leagues here. The Cleveland Indians going up against the Texas Rangers. The Indians, 78-81. The Rangers, really, they're strangers when it comes to wins, 59-100. BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Indians' money line, minus 117 versus the Rangers.”
CLE 9, TEX 6 — Cleveland beat Texas 9-6 on Oct 1, 2021; Indians moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“This is lock of the day one Nico Price the hybrid going up against Alex Oliveira cowboy Hybrid is 14-5, and the cowboy is 22-10-1. BetOnline.ag line for this one. The hybrid, minus 160 versus the cowboy. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, it's in the welterweight division. Two UFC veterans coming off losing streaks. Price 0-2-1 his last three fights. Oliveira coming off two submission losses here. The difference is Nico Price has faced better competition while being very competitive in his fights. Oliveira just looked terrible in the last two fights. Dominated, choked out in the first round. He has a history of fading as the fight goes on here. Price still a very exciting fighter with excellent stand-up. Very good cardio, superior jiu-jitsu, and plenty of heart. I think that Oliveira realizes at the end of his career this might be his last fight. He either might get cut after this fight, he might retire. The cardio and heart are going to be the difference in this one. The longer the fight goes, the more the fight leans to price. We're looking for the hybrid to dominate the second half and possibly finish Oliveira. It looks like this cowboy is going to be sent out to his, unlike Troy Aikman, he won't have Larry Allen to protect him. I'm going here with Nico Price here. Level one lock.”
Niko Price defeated Alex Oliveira by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker on Oct 2, 2021 (Wikipedia).
“This is going to be a level two lock. College football action. How about Kentucky? Wildcats, and we're talking football. Going up against the Florida Gators. Kentucky is 4-0 on the season. The Gators 3-1. Their one loss to Alabama. BetOnline.ag line for this one. Kentucky plus 8.5 versus Florida.”
UK 20, FLA 13 — Kentucky beat Florida 20-13 on Oct 2, 2021; Wildcats +8.5 covers by 15.5 (ESPN).
“Level three lock. Turn our attention to the NFL. And this is going to be a fantastic game, Lee. Neither one of these teams have lost a game yet. The Rams and the Cardinals. Both teams 3-0 on the season. BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Rams minus 4.5 versus the Cardinals.”
LAR 20, ARI 37 — Arizona beat the LA Rams 37-20 on Oct 3, 2021; Cardinals +4.5 covers by 21.5 (ESPN).
“A low-out special. L.A. Dodgers, minus one and a half runs, minus 118.”
LAD 8, SD 3 — Dodgers beat Padres 8-3, a margin of +5 that covers Dodgers -1.5.
“so we're going to go with a level one lock. That's right, a level one lock. First five innings over four and a half runs, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies.”
ATL 5, PHI 0 (through 5) — Braves led Phillies 5-0 through five innings en route to a 5-3 win (ESPN box score linescore), a combined 5 first-five runs that clears Over 4.5.
“BetOnline.ag line for Joe Burrow and pass attempts under 32.5, minus 105. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so I do play some player props. A lot of times, right before the game, when the numbers move, that's sometimes where you can get your best line, or during the game when I can watch the game and get a feel for the game. So here's one I think they've made a mistake, and they're off by maybe four or five. The first game of the year, close game, he throws 27 passes against Minnesota. They win 27-24. Second game, they're losing. They're trailing. They've got to throw almost the entire second half. Still only throws 30 passes in the 20-17 loss against Chicago. Last week against Pittsburgh, they get a lead, big lead. They only throw the ball 18 times in that 24-10 win. You've got to think tonight in this game against Jacksonville, they're going to be playing with a lead. I love their running game. They're getting, it seems like, four or five yards every time they hand the ball off to Mixon. And I think that they just run out the clock pretty much in the third and fourth quarters here. I wouldn't be shocked if it goes over. I'd be real shocked if it goes over 25 pass attempts here. So I think it's going to move down maybe two or three here at least. So get on it right now. Under 32.5 pass attempts, minus 105.”
Joe Burrow completed 25 of 32 pass attempts as the Bengals beat the Jaguars 24-21; 32 attempts stays under the 32.5 line. (Burrow 25-32, 348 yds, 2 TD (32 attempts))
“This one should be a blowout. Chicago White Sox money line minus 168 blowout special.”
CHW 6, CIN 1 — White Sox beat Reds 6-1; White Sox moneyline wins.
“So I think Baltimore takes this one. Wrong team favorite here. Baltimore Ravens plus the one and a half. They get the job done.”
BAL 23, DEN 7 — Ravens beat Broncos 23-7 on Oct 3, 2021; Ravens win outright and cover +1.5.
“So we're going to go with the Detroit Tigers first five innings money line plus 150. Bet a little, win a whole lot.”
MIN 3, DET 1 (through 5) — Twins led Tigers 3-1 through five innings en route to a 5-2 win (ESPN box score linescore); Tigers F5 moneyline loses.
“So we're going with the New York Yankees money line plus 118. Wrong team favorite.”
NYY 7, TOR 2 — Yankees beat Blue Jays 7-2; Yankees moneyline wins.
“I like Missouri. Lay it right now. Minus three here. Blowout special. Missouri Tigers.”
TENN 62, MIZ 24 — Tennessee beat Missouri 62-24, a margin of -38 for Missouri that busts Missouri -3.
“Philadelphia Phillies, first five innings, money line, minus 110, level two lock.”
ATL 2, PHI 0 (through 5) — Braves led Phillies 2-0 through five innings en route to a 2-1 win (ESPN box score linescore); Phillies F5 moneyline loses.
“Let go with Seattle Mariners here today in a great spot to put the athletics out of contention and out of their misery Seattle Mariners Moneyline minus 112 blowout special”
SEA 13, OAK 4 — Mariners beat Athletics 13-4; Mariners moneyline wins.
“I'm going to lay the three and a half points. They didn't used to be a good home favorite, but they win this game. Blowout special. Dallas Cowboys minus three and a half points.”
DAL 41, PHI 21 — Cowboys beat Eagles 41-21, a margin of +20 that covers Cowboys -3.5.
“So I'm going here under 90 and a half points, minus 115. Montreal Canadiens, level one lock.”
Montreal finished the 2021-22 NHL season 22-49-11 for 55 points, well under the 90.5-point line (Wikipedia, sourced to NHL standings).
“I'm taking Soto to hit a home run here tonight. Plus 330. Every $100 you wager, you win 330 if he hits a home run.”
Juan Soto went 0-for-2 with four walks and no home run as the Reds beat the Nationals 8-7 in 11 innings (ESPN box score). (Soto 0-for-2, 0 HR, 4 BB)
“wrong team favorite LA Chargers knock off the Chiefs 34-30.”
LAC 30, KC 24 — Chargers beat Chiefs 30-24; Chargers moneyline wins outright.
“I'm going to go here. Blowout special over nine runs, minus 105,”
NYY 8, BOS 3 — Yankees beat Red Sox 8-3, a combined 11 runs that clears the Over 9 total.
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to go Medich, a.k.a. The Doctor, minus 150 versus the Tarantula.”
Jalin Turner submitted Uros Medic via rear-naked choke in round 1 at UFC 266 (Wikipedia); Medic moneyline loses.
“We're going to go with a level, not one, not two, a level three lock Rutgers plus 20 against Michigan. I think Michigan prevails in the end. 27-20, it wouldn't shock me if Rutgers pulls off the upset of the weekend.”
MICH 20, RUTG 13 — Michigan beat Rutgers 20-13, a margin of -7 for Rutgers that covers Rutgers +20.
“We're going with Omar Morales or Omar Antonio Morales Ferrer from Venezuela, minus the 150. I'm not going to give you one more. I'm going to give you one early. One early winner, minus the 150.”
Jonathan Pearce submitted Omar Morales via rear-naked choke in round 2 at UFC 266 (Wikipedia, sourced to UFC records); Morales moneyline loses.
“So we're going to lay the one and a half runs plus 153. For every $100, get back $153. Roam team is favored. San Francisco, big over San Diego.”
SD 7, SF 6 — Padres beat Giants 7-6 in 10 innings; Giants -1.5 falls one run short and busts.
“And I'm going to lay the one and a half here with the better pitcher team still in it. You get a young team like the Pirates on the road. Their last game was rained out. They're probably going out and partying last night. So give me Philly minus one and a half minus one thirty four blowout special.”
PHI 12, PIT 6 — Phillies beat Pirates 12-6, a margin of +6 that covers Phillies -1.5.
“So we're going to go with the under 43 in this game, under 43 minus one 10 level two lock.”
CAR 24, HOU 9 — Panthers beat Texans 24-9, a combined 33 points that stays under the 43 total.
“I think the Seattle Mariners should be favored in this one. Wrong team favored. Seattle Mariners, money line, plus 126.”
SEA 4, OAK 1 — Seattle beat Oakland 4-1, so the Mariners moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Tampa Bay blowout special 37-27 over the Rams.”
LAR 34, TB 24 — The Rams beat Tampa Bay 34-24, so the Buccaneers moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So the betonline.ag line, how we're going to roll about this one. The Florida Panthers over 102.5 points, minus 115.”
Florida finished the 2021-22 regular season with 122 points (58-18-6), clearing Over 102.5 (ESPN NHL standings). (122 points (58-18-6))
“So wrong team favored, wrong pitcher favored, New York Mets first five money line plus 120.”
BOS 4, NYM 2 (through 5 innings) — Boston led the Mets 4-2 through five innings (scoring 1 in the 4th, 3 in the 5th vs New York's 2 in the 4th) en route to a 6-3 win, so the Mets F5 moneyline busts (ESPN box score linescore).
“The line is seven. I think it's going to close nine or ten. Get on it early here. Blowout special number one, Iowa State on Saturday over Baylor.”
BAY 31, ISU 29 — Baylor beat Iowa State 31-29, a 2-point margin, so Iowa State -7 busts (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go with the blowout special, number two. Tennessee Titans minus the five over the Indianapolis Colts.”
TEN 25, IND 16 — Tennessee beat Indianapolis 25-16, a 9-point margin, so Titans -5 covers (ESPN box score).
“So we're going here with a level two lock over seven and a half runs, minus one 10 in the Milwaukee St. Louis game.”
STL 2, MIL 1 — St. Louis beat Milwaukee 2-1, a combined 3 runs, so Over 7.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to place half of my wager on the Rangers plus one and a half. And that plus one and a half is 123.”
NYY 4, TEX 3 — The Yankees beat the Rangers 4-3, a 1-run margin, so Texas +1.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“and half of my wagers here on the Rangers money line at plus 230.”
NYY 4, TEX 3 — The Yankees beat the Rangers 4-3, so the Rangers moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Toronto Blue Jays, money line, minus 125, blowout special.”
TB 6, TOR 4 — Tampa Bay beat Toronto 6-4, so the Blue Jays moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
- Green Bay Packers -5.5 won
- Over 42.5 won
“I'm going to do a two-team, six-point teaser. When you play a two-team, six-point teaser, you have to win both sides of the teaser to cast your one bet. There is no juice on it, so if you wager 100, you would win 100. So I think the way that you can move it up or down. I mean, I can take Detroit and decide if it's 11 and a half. I can move it up to 17 and a half. may be a way to go. But I think the smarter way here is to take Green Bay. Move them from 11 and a half down to five and a half Two key numbers six and seven a lot of games end on that So as long as they win the game by six or seven you win that half And then the other half is 48 and a half I going to move it down to 42 and a half, and I'm going to play the over 42 and a half. So I've got Green Bay minus five and a half and over 42 and a half, just need 43 points to be scored.”
GB 35, DET 17 — Green Bay beat Detroit 35-17 on Monday Night Football, a 18-point margin that clears the teased -5.5, and the combined 52 points clears the teased Over 42.5 (ESPN box score).
“Wrong team favored. Kansas State knocks off Nevada 30-24.”
KSU 38, NEV 17 — Kansas State beat Nevada 38-17, so the Kansas State moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Hulk, minus 150, versus the Brown Bear Clark. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So, Devin Clark is decent. I just think Kudalaba is on a different level here. Now, he's had a bunch of fights canceled over the last year and a half, two years. He did lose both of his last two fights. We had one draw. He drew Dustin Jacoby, but before that, Magma Dacolagov ended up losing both fights, but nothing to be ashamed of. Before that, he beat Khalil Rantree in the first round. A couple other fighters he took care of in the first round. only other loss going back the last five years are to Glover, Teixeira, and Jared Kananier. So just fought a higher level of fighter. He's got better ground game. He's got better striking and much more powerful. So he can win a lot of different ways. He can even put some submissions on guys once he gets them to the ground. So he's more well-versed, more well-rounded, different level here. This is like an A-minus fighter going against a C-plus B-minus fighter here. Line's only 150. Blowout special in the Hulk Kudalaba.”
Ion Cutelaba defeated Devin Clark by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann on Sept 18, 2021, so the Cutelaba moneyline cashes (UFC.com).
“Level two lock, St. Louis Cardinals money line, minus 136 over the once Slam Diego Padres.”
STL 8, SD 2 — St. Louis beat San Diego 8-2, so the Cardinals moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“This is a level three lock. That's right. You heard me correct. Level three lock. Philadelphia Phillies, money line, minus 127 over the hapless Mets.”
PHI 4, NYM 3 — Philadelphia beat New York 4-3, so the Phillies moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I look for Pennington to out-decision Kazed here on the feet. As neither fighter looks for takedowns much, although if any fighter does look to grapple, it will be Pennington, as Kazed has one takedown. That's right, one takedown in her entire UFC career here. We are going with Rocky, not the Italian stallion in this one, minus the 130 here.”
Raquel Pennington defeated Pannie Kianzad by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann on Sept 18, 2021, so the Pennington moneyline cashes (UFC.com).
“But he's covered five of the last eight games. Hadn't won any of them, but covered five of the last eight. The way to beat Alabama, or at least keep it close, is you've got to have a mobile quarterback, a dual-threat quarterback. And they have that. They have Anthony Richardson, Emory Jones. I don't love Jones as a passer, but Anthony Richardson, as a runner, a quarterback, already four touchdowns, he's averaging, get this, this is not a misprint if you see it somewhere, 25 yards per carry. Also, you've got to have a mentality. Here's the thing to probably be about the Miami game when they played Alabama. They win the toss. What does Miami do? First to the second half. Are you kidding me? Get the kickoff. Take the ball. You want the ball. Yeah, you've got to have a 7, 10, 14-point lead against Alabama to put any pressure on them. So look for that. Watch the coin toss. That could be important. If I'm Florida, I take the ball. We're going to see if someone's smart enough to take the ball against Alabama. Florida defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, I think he can show a ton of different looks and dial up a variety of blitzes. They have a wide blitz package. I've followed Todd Grantham's career as defensive coordinator for many years. So I think he's going to put some stress on Bryce Young here. And Bama was a two-touchdown favorite in the SEC title game last year. They only won that game by six points here. I'm saying this goes down to the wire. In the swamp, Bama escapes 35-31. Wrong team favorite. There you go right there. So Roll Tide still wins, but they don't cover the 14 and a half points.”
ALA 31, FLA 29 — Alabama beat Florida 31-29, a 2-point margin, so Florida +14.5 covers easily (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to say wrong team favorite number two here. Giants 23-20 over Washington.”
WSH 30, NYG 29 — Washington beat the Giants 30-29 on Sept 16, 2021, so the Giants moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So over eight and a half runs, minus 115 in the Houston-Texas game. Level two lock.”
HOU 12, TEX 1 — Houston beat Texas 12-1, a combined 13 runs, so Over 8.5 cashes (ESPN box score).
“Blowout special. Cleveland Indians money line, minus 105. This line should be minus 135 or 145. Blowout special. Cleveland gets the job done.”
CLE 12, MIN 3 — Cleveland won 12-3 over Minnesota, so the Indians moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Okay, so the line right now, it's plus 102 if you go with Bomb. And I don't get it here. So it's a 125-pound flyweight fight here. Mandy is from Germany originally She's fighting off here And squaring off against a Brazilian fighter Lipski The public seems to love Brazilian fighters And they bet them But 32 year old Baum Is undefeated 7-0 She's a UFC newcomer Comes over from Bellator Takes on a 27 year old Lipski Who has a record of 2-4 in the UFC And 13-7 overall And Lipski's two wins She beat two very inexperienced fighters, one who only had one UFC fight and was released, and the other who got caught with a knee barred due to inexperience. So Lipsky gets dominated by every fighter with a reasonable level of competence here. Now that Baum has moved over to train at SBG Ireland, home of Conor McGregor and Johnny Walker, she should be even more polished on her feet where she should be able to dominate. She is physically dominated here virtually every opponent she has faced. And even if Lipski is able to get a takedown, which is her only path to victory, Bama has the strength to get right back up to her feet. So the skill and strength level should be apparent. I see Bama dominating on the feet, stuffing the takedowns, wearing out Lipski for a unanimous decision here, or possibly a TKO, the queen. I think she's going to take down the queen of non-violence here. Lipsky is in the UFC because she is probably, you know, average as far as talent, but not hard on the eyes to look at. Be careful with the way you look at this game. Don't just look at experience here. I think this is going to be an easy, easy win here for the monster.”
Ariane Lipski (Ariane da Silva) defeated Mandy Böhm by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann on Sept 18, 2021, so the Böhm moneyline busts (UFC.com).
“So Minnesota Wild, plus $2,500, bet a little, win a whole lot.”
St. Louis eliminated Minnesota 4 games to 2 in the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs, so the Wild futures bet busts (Wikipedia, 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs).
“Boise wins by double digits, 30-20, level two lock.”
OKST 21, BSU 20 — Oklahoma State beat Boise State 21-20, so the Boise State moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Wrong team favored here. Seattle Mariners, money line, plus 124.”
BOS 8, SEA 4 — Red Sox beat Mariners 8-4; Seattle's moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“I'm going here with Cincinnati, minus 3.5. I am winning this game here, something like 30-17.”
CIN 38, IU 24 — Cincinnati beat Indiana 38-24, a 14-point margin; Cincinnati covered -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going over nine runs minus 113 in the Atlanta-Colorado game. Level one lock.”
COL 5, ATL 4 — Rockies beat Braves 5-4; the combined 9 runs pushes exactly on the Over 9 total (ESPN box score).
“So I'm taking the two points here and think that the Wildcats, wrong team favorite. Plus two, they win outright over Nevada Wolfpack.”
KSU 38, NEV 17 — Kansas State beat Nevada 38-17, winning outright; the +2 spread cashes easily (ESPN box score).
“I'm going here with the Mets. Mets, money line, minus 105, blowout special.”
STL 7, NYM 0 — Cardinals shut out Mets 7-0; New York's moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“San Francisco Giants money line, minus 105, level one lock.”
SF 9, SD 1 — Giants beat Padres 9-1; San Francisco's moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Betonline.ag line for this one. The Raiders plus four, minus 108 versus the Ravens. What are your thoughts on this one? Yeah, I think this is going to end up being Allegiant Stadium, one of the toughest places to play for opponents. I think the top is going to almost be knocked off this stadium tonight with the crowd noise. I think that this Ravens team, I mean, they lose their best cornerback, Peters. They have lost their top three running backs. Even more pressure here on Lamar Jackson. Just think that their offensive line just isn't good enough. I think that the Raider defensive line is going to have a big game here. Obviously, the Raider offensive line, without Richie Cognito, is going to have to hold their own against a good Baltimore defensive front. But I think this is really important, this game, for the Las Vegas coaching staff. They've got to set the tone for the year. I think they're going to be aggressive in their play calling and might have held back some stuff that they haven't shown. I'm taking the points here. Monday night home dog, wrong team favorite. And I'm going to give you one more here. Like I said, I like the Las Vegas Raiders plus the four. I think they win this game outright.”
LV 33, BAL 27 — Raiders beat Ravens 33-27 in overtime; Las Vegas won outright, covering +4 (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Mets here to open the subway series with a win. Wrong team favored. New York Mets money line plus 110.”
NYM 10, NYY 3 — Mets beat Yankees 10-3; New York NL's moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Blowout special. Milwaukee Brewers, Moneyline, minus 142.”
MIL 10, CLE 3 — Brewers beat Indians 10-3; Milwaukee's moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I like Texas by double digits, 35-24.”
ARK 40, TEX 21 — Arkansas beat Texas 40-21; Texas's moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Kentucky minus 5 versus Missouri. Give us the details on this one, Lee. Give it to us. All right. So I'm going to tell you right now, I think Kentucky is the most under-the-radar team in college football. I think they're going to finish second on the west side. The west side? Or the east side? I not sure exactly which side it is of the SEC But they are under the radar And why do I say it the Eastside Why are they under the radar They finally found a quarterback Couldn't throw the football last couple years. I mean, they were running the Wildcat. I mean, it was so bad almost half the time in some of the games. Will Levis, huge get transfer from Penn State. I think he's the better quarterback. I don't know why they didn't keep him over Clifford, but so be it. Good for Kentucky's sake. They have a slashing running back in Chris Rodriguez that's underrated. Also, a Nebraska transfer, Wondell Robinson, huge addition. So they finally have a balanced offense. Missouri last year, how did they beat Kentucky? Well, ground and pound, mixed in with a short passing game. They controlled that game on the clock for over 43 of the 60 minutes. The shoe's on the other foot this year. Kentucky will control the ball. They'll score more. Their defense is salty. I think Mark Stoops is going to serve up revenge here for last year's 20-10 loss on a cold, hard dish. Level three lock, Kentucky Wildcats over the Missouri Tigers.”
UK 35, MIZ 28 — Kentucky beat Missouri 35-28, a 7-point margin; Kentucky covered -5 (ESPN box score).
“Wrong team favored here. Kansas City Royals money line plus 111 they get the job done”
KC 6, BAL 0 — Royals beat Orioles 6-0; Kansas City's moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go here with a level three lock, not level one or level two, a level three lock on the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals over nine runs minus 115.”
ATL 7, WSH 6 — Braves beat Nationals 7-6 in 10 innings; the combined 13 runs clears the Over 9 total (ESPN box score).
“Betonline.ag line for this one. Tampa Bay minus nine versus the Cowboys. And Lee, if I'm not correct, man, Zach Martin was ruled out and the line went from around seven to nine, even some places nine and a half. What am I missing here in this game? Tell me, talk to me. Okay. So he's, this is big. I mean, he by far their best lineman and people will just usually look at the quarterback position but when they had injuries on the offensive line they couldn do anything last year Now with him out that means Conor McGovern will slide into his spot And, I mean, the difference is night and day teams. When you have an all-pro lineman, he goes out, usually the guy behind him next man up is not very good. This Tampa Bay offense, they got it going once they got to know each other and were familiar with each other. They were second in the league in passing offense last year. They generated over 289 yards per game through the air. They're healthy. They didn't play anyone. It seems like the entire preseason here, they bring back all 22 starters, making the first time in the salary cap era since 1977 that a Super Bowl winner brought back all of their starters here. They went 11-5 in the regular season and then just went on that roll here. Dallas also has to play on grass. People don't look at the surface, but they practice on the AstroTurf. They play on it or FieldTurf or whatever they want to call it these days. They've got like five different names for the turf. But they're 0-4 against the spread the last four games on grass. It's different playing on grass here. and Tampa Bay, I think they're going to celebrate here in style. Something I found also, Super Bowl champions at home week one, 18-2 straight up, 14-4-2 against the spread. And with that rust on Dak Prescott coming back from that arm injury and also the broken ankle and Dan Quinn coming in, I think he might be okay as defensive coordinator for Dallas. I just think it's going to take time. and they just don't have the talent there on the back end for Dallas in the secondary. So I like Tampa Bay here. I think they win in cover here 27-14.”
TB 31, DAL 29 — Buccaneers beat Cowboys 31-29, a 2-point margin; Tampa Bay failed to cover -9 (ESPN box score).
“The wrong team is favored here. I think they're going to win this game, and you're getting plus 105. My daughter will be at the game for tonight cheering the Toronto Blue Jays on because she wants dad to win. So, wrong team favorite here. Toronto Blue Jays plus 105.”
TOR 6, NYY 3 — Blue Jays beat Yankees 6-3; Toronto's moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Boise wins 38-20. I'm taking the 26-and-a-half.”
BSU 54, UTEP 13 — Boise State beat UTEP 54-13, a 41-point margin; UTEP failed to cover +26.5 (ESPN box score).
“Level 2 lock, a future on the Calgary Flames here, under 90.5 points, minus 115.”
Calgary Flames finished the 2021-22 NHL regular season with 111 points, well over the 90.5 total; the Under loses (ESPN standings).
“That online.ag line for this one. Tulsa is plus 13 and a half at Oklahoma State coming off a tough loss. What is the deals on this one, Lee? Break this one down for us. Well, get on it early. I think this line's coming down. As soon as I saw this game last year, I'm like, okay, I don't have a play on this game, but there's something about this game. What it was was Tulsa played Oklahoma State toe-to-toe. In fact, they lost the game 16-7, but I'm like, I think the wrong team won this game. Why do I say that? Tulsa outgained Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State had to have everything go right to win that game. And when they won that game, I mean, they were breathing a deep sigh of relief. I think Tulsa was looking ahead to this game, and that's what happened. They ended up losing to Cal Davis by two on Saturday. So if you don't pay full attention, even to these FCS opponents, you're going to pay the price because some of these teams are really good. And Cal Davis is one of the better FCS opponents. So they have two really good running backs in Prince and Brooks. They just turned them all over three times, and they didn't bring it. On the other side, Oklahoma State has basically lost all their explosive players. I mean, this is a team, and if you look at the conference, it's Iowa State, Oklahoma, and Texas, and everyone else now. Spencer Sanders missed last week's game because of COVID. He's questionable for this week. Even if he plays, probably not going to be 100%. But they lost their top two receivers, both in the NFL, Talon Wallace and also Dylan Stoner. Their top running back, Chubba Hubbard, lost him to the NFL. What they have is they have three receivers that are Jags. You know what Jags are, obviously, right? No. Just another guy. A lot of Jags. A lot of third and fourth receivers out there that are starting. a lot of running backs, no explosiveness. And how about this? You know, we talked about in the show, in the game yesterday, we talked about Louisville using two guys from low-level schools that are filling in at safety. And how poor did they play? Really poor. Now Oklahoma State is expecting, they only have one decent offensive lineman, two transfers to come in, get this, from Miami of Ohio to start and do well, and a junior college kid. So they lost their best player on defense or top sacker I mean Oklahoma State is a team in name only here I taking the 13 points I think it going to close at 10 Wrong team favored. Tulsa, plus the double digits, gets the job against Oklahoma State on Saturday.”
OKST 28, TLSA 23 — Oklahoma State beat Tulsa 28-23; Tulsa lost by 5, covering the +13.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.ag line for this one, we're going to roll. the Brewers versus the Phillies over eight runs minus 113 Lee break this one down for us.”
MIL 10, PHI 0 — Brewers beat Phillies 10-0; combined 10 runs clears the Over 8 total (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Oakland A's at the short price here to get the week started. You know, we're really starting the work week on a Tuesday this week because of the holidays. So Oakland A's money line, minus 131, level one lock.”
CHW 6, OAK 3 — White Sox beat Athletics 6-3; Oakland's moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“Philadelphia Phillies first five innings money line plus 118 Wrong team favorite”
PHI 4-MIL 0 — Philadelphia led Milwaukee 4-0 through five innings en route to a 12-0 shutout, so the Phillies F5 moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Colorado Rockies, team total over four and a half runs, minus 118, blowout special.”
SF 10-COL 5 — Colorado scored 5 runs in its 10-5 win over San Francisco, clearing its team total Over 4.5 (ESPN box score).
“I like Ole Miss here laying the nine and a half points. Level one lock.”
43-24 — Ole Miss beat Louisville 43-24, winning by 19, clearing the -9.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Wrong team favorite here. Michigan State outright over Northwestern 27-17.”
MSU 38-NU 21 — Michigan State beat Northwestern 38-21; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Blowout coming, blowout special. The L.A. Dodgers money line minus 114 over the San Francisco Giants.”
SF 3-LAD 2 — Giants beat Dodgers 3-2 in 11 innings; Los Angeles's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I like the Cougars here, 35-17.”
BYU 24-ARIZ 16 — BYU beat Arizona 24-16 in the Vegas Kickoff Classic; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Wrong team favorite here, and I'm giving you one more. I think Indiana knocks off the Iowa Hawkeyes 26-23.”
IOWA 34-IU 6 — Iowa beat Indiana 34-6; Indiana's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I don't think Ohio State's going to take the foot off the gas, even with the Oregon Ducks on deck here Give me I can say it Ohio State 38 Golden Gophers 20”
45-31 — Ohio State beat Minnesota 45-31; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee, they win big here. Level two lock, 48-7.”
38-6 — Tennessee beat Bowling Green 38-6; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I'm backing the Tigers over the Bulldogs. The price is cheap. Thompson by double digits. 30-20 over Georgia. Level three luck.”
UGA 10-CLEM 3 — Georgia beat Clemson 10-3; Clemson's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I think this is an easy winner here. level five lock Arizona Coyotes under 67 and a half points minus 115 bet the house on this one”
Arizona finished the 2021-22 NHL season with 57 points (25-50-7), well under 67.5 (Wikipedia, citing NHL standings).
“I think this line is way off. I mean, I think this game should be close to a point. Taking Milwaukee here, plus 144.”
MIL 5-SF 2 — Brewers beat Giants 5-2; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“so we're going to lay the one and a half runs minus 158 blowout special New York Yankees easy winner”
NYY 4-LAA 1 — Yankees beat Angels 4-1, winning by 3, clearing the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So it's just too much uncertainty for me to lay 18.5 points with a program that's not consistently a good team laying big points here. They're better in the underdog role. South Florida, 8-1 is a non-conference underdog, plus 17 points or more. So when they're getting 17 points or more, 8-1 against a spread against non-conference opponents, they get up for these games. I think NC State wins something like 37-23. I got that as like a 14-point winner. I think 18-and-a-half is way too much. And remember, even if NC State's winning by 22, 23 points, 24 late in the game, backdoor is wide open here for South Florida with a team that control the football. We're going to make this a level two lock.”
45-0 — NC State shut out South Florida 45-0; USF failed to cover +18.5 (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to take UCLA here plus 450 to win the Pac-12. If they beat LSU like I think they will, it's going to be down to probably 350, 370. So get on it early here. Bet a little, win a lot, and wrong team favored. UCLA plus 450 to win the Pac-12.”
Utah beat Oregon 38-10 in the 2021 Pac-12 Championship Game to win the conference; UCLA did not win the Pac-12 (Wikipedia, citing official game result).
“I'm laying the one and a half runs here plus 100 blowout special Houston Astros.”
SEA 4-HOU 0 — Mariners shut out the Astros 4-0; Houston failed to cover -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“So level two lock over nine runs, minus 115.”
PHI 12-WSH 6 — Phillies beat Nationals 12-6; combined 18 runs clears the Over 9 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this Thursday game action. Central Florida minus 5.5 versus Boise State. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, and these are two of the probably five best non-Power 5 schools that have a chance to get in the college football playoffs. So one of them is going to get eliminated here, and I think I know who. The reason I want to bet this game now, I don't want to have this line get to six or six and a half or seven points. So Central Florida, I've loved Dylan Gabriel, the lefty from Hawaii, since the first time I saw him. He always starts the season off really quick. I think these Boise kids are going to have trouble. It is going to be hot. Trust me, I've been in Orlando many, many times in September, and it is brutal. They had no breeze, but these kids in Central Florida are ready for it. I love the hire here of Gus Malzahn. He was decent, you know, at Auburn, but I think he's going to be great at Central Florida. They don't know what to expect at Boise out of him. They'll look at some old films, but he'll throw in a bunch of wrinkles. He brought three transfers with him from Auburn. A lot of guys for Central Florida last year sat out because of COVID. And I don't think most people even realize that. and I don't think it's built into the line. Hank Bachmar, I loved him his first game, the quarterback for Boise, when he went down to beat Florida State a couple years ago. But since that time, I don't think he's improved that much. So a lot like Adrian Martinez, quarterback for Nebraska. He was a quarterback that I don't know what it is. Maybe it's injuries. That's probably part of it. Just doesn't have a great surrounding cast also. Boise is not recruited like they recruited six, seven, eight years ago. So I like Central Florida here. Blowout special Thursday night over Boise State.”
36-31 — UCF beat Boise State 36-31, winning by only 5 points, short of the -5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Brewers minus 126 versus the Giants. What's your thoughts on this one, Lee? Two teams I've been riding here, but I think one team has a big advantage. And the reason I think the Brewers do it, it's all about Corbin Burns. He has already had a fantastic season, but he's been a different version of himself on the road in 2021. So far, he's running a 5-0 record with a 180-70 array on the road in 10 starts. And he has just nine walks and 63 innings pitched away from home. He has been nothing short of dominant in this split so far. He's 7-0 in the last seven games where he started in game one of a series as well. So he's establishing himself as a game one starter for the postseason. You look on the other side of things, and Johnny Cueto's numbers just don't support the idea that he should be such a small underdog here. He ranks 10th and 10th percentile in expected batting average. He's 30th percentile in whiff rate, 28th percentile in strikeout rate. He's bound to regress, and he's facing a Brewers lineup that has really picked up since the All-Star break. This is one of the shortest prices you're going to get on Burns this year. It's time to take advantage of it right now. Level one lock, Milwaukee Brewers money line.”
MIL 3-SF 1 — Brewers beat Giants 3-1; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the Tampa Bay Rays money line, minus 133, level two lock.”
TB 6-BOS 1 — Rays beat Red Sox 6-1; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Wrong team is favored here. Detroit Tigers. How about this? Plus 145.”
DET 2, TOR 1 — Detroit beat Toronto 2-1; the Tigers moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I just think the pitching matchup is more of an advantage here for Milwaukee than the books are making it out to be here Lowout special Milwaukee Brewers money line minus 130”
MIN 2, MIL 0 — Minnesota beat Milwaukee 2-0; the Brewers moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So give me UTEP. People think late 10 points on the road. It's that high for a reason. The Miners, minus 10 over the Aggies. Level three lock.”
UTEP 30, NMSU 3 — UTEP beat New Mexico State 30-3 in the 2021 season opener; a +27 margin covers the -10 spread (Wikipedia game recap).
“BetOnline.ag line is Pooh Bear minus 160 versus ZRGV bad boy. Thoughts on this one, Lee? If anyone knows what that stands for, you know, hit us up on Twitter. You know, me at Paramount Sports or you at your boy Q254. I'd like to know. Maybe it's probably from where he's from. I know he's from, I believe it's, I think it's either Hawaii or in California. And I think Garbino's pretty good. Problem was he lost the semifinals. And he is just one of these guys that he's pretty good. I think Brian Battle has a chance to have a nice career here. I think he's the better striker. I think he's the better fighter if it goes to the ground. He has some submissions, and I think it's a cheap price. It started off at $170. It's down to $162. Give me Brian Pooh Bear battle here.”
Bryan Battle submitted Gilbert Urbina via rear-naked choke at 2:15 of round 2 at UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze (Wikipedia).
“So we'll go with the Marlins here. Moneyline minus 119 over the Washington hapless Nationals.”
MIA 7, WSH 5 — Miami beat Washington 7-5; the Marlins moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Level 2 lock, New York Yankees money line minus 109.”
NYY 7, OAK 6 — New York beat Oakland 7-6; the Yankees moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“give me Carolina, minus three and a half points at home. Not a level one, not a level two, but a level three lock on this Thursday.”
CAR 34, PIT 9 — Carolina beat Pittsburgh 34-9 in preseason; a +25 margin covers the -3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Wrong team favored. Again, San Francisco Giants money line plus 104.”
SF 3, NYM 2 — San Francisco beat the Mets 3-2; the Giants moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Let's go with the Patriots. The line looks fishy. You're thinking preseason, lay three and a half on the road. but sometimes if it looks too good to be true it is don't take the Giants take the Patriots here blow out special New England Patriots over the Giants”
NE 22, NYG 20 — New England beat the Giants 22-20 in preseason; a +2 margin fails to cover the -3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag. Line for this one. We're going to roll Red Sox versus Twins. Over 10.5 runs. Minus 110.”
BOS 6, MIN 9 — Minnesota beat Boston 9-6 (10 innings); the 15-run combined total clears the Over 10.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Giants money line, plus 106 versus the Mets. Break this one down for us, Lee. Well, first I have a correction. I actually went 3-0 last night. I just realized that I'm looking at so many games, and I was doing some in-game betting, But we actually won the Cubs. Cubs came back. They were down 4-1. They beat Colorado 6-4. So we actually went 3-0, not 2-1. Boom, there it is. That's what happens sometimes. You're playing a lot of different games. So here we go. Wrong team favorite, San Francisco Giants. So it's not often that you see San Francisco as an underdog at this point in the season with this kind of record. The reason for it, other than having the best record in Major League Baseball, is the Giants are 14-6 last 20 games as a road dog this year. They're playing maybe the best baseball here of the year in the month of August. In fact, they're 11-3 the last 14 games, and their starters, 3-59 either in the month of August, too. Now they get a Mets team that can't do anything right. New York is 1-7 last eight series openers. They're 2-8 in the last 10 overall. I just think the inconsistency and injuries in the Mets lineup has finally caught up with them here. This line should be flipped here. The Giants should be like minus 120, minus 126, getting them plus 106. Wrong team favored. San Francisco Giants hopefully get off to a nice start, and we win our fourth in a row.”
SF 8, NYM 0 — San Francisco beat the Mets 8-0; the Giants moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I'm betting if you wager $100 at $750 on Cliff Kingsbury, that's a great bet.”
Urban Meyer, not Cliff Kingsbury, was the first NFL head coach fired in the 2021 season — the Jaguars dismissed Meyer on December 16, 2021 (Wikipedia).
“And Zach Taylor, for every $100 you wager, returns $850. Bet a little. Win a whole lot on either one of those guys.”
Urban Meyer, not Zac Taylor, was the first NFL head coach fired in the 2021 season — the Jaguars dismissed Meyer on December 16, 2021 (Wikipedia).
“Toronto Blue Jays' money line, minus 122, level two lock.”
CHW 5, TOR 2 — Chicago White Sox beat Toronto 5-2; the Blue Jays moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Yankees, money line, plus 102 versus the Braves. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so like you said, both teams aren't playing well. Both teams are red hot. And the Yankees have actually dominated this series in recent history. And Braves, how about this, have just played one playoff team this month. So they're feasting on some lower-level competition. As well as the Braves are playing, I think New York's playing maybe a little bit better. They got a little more power on their team. I like the fact that their pitcher here, Jordan Montgomery, is going to the start. It's his second since coming back off the COVID list. And the first one, he gave up three runs over four and two-thirds innings against Boston. I think now you're going to see the best Jordan Montgomery. So I think he'll settle in here. And he's allowed three or less runs here in his last nine starts. He's just consistent. He keeps his team in the game. That's the most important thing with the Yankees. As long as they don't fall too far behind, I think they're the right side here. And you're getting them as an underdog here. Wrong team favored. New York Yankees here get the job done.”
NYY 5, ATL 1 — New York Yankees beat Atlanta 5-1; the Yankees moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I think the best play here is Chicago. Minus the 123.”
CHC 6, COL 4 — Chicago Cubs beat Colorado 6-4; the Cubs moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
- Jacksonville Jaguars +10 won
- Over 33.5 won
“So the play here on the two-team six-point teaser, Jacksonville plus 10, over 33.5.”
NO 23, JAX 21 — New Orleans beat Jacksonville 23-21 in preseason; a -2 margin is well inside the teased Jaguars +10, and the 44-point total clears the teased Over 33.5 (ESPN box score).
“Give me William Knight here, minus 175, blowout special.”
William Knight defeated Fabio Cherant by KO/TKO (punches) at 3:58 of round 1 at UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum (Wikipedia).
“so we are going to take Colorado minus the one and a half runs minus 102 level one lock”
COL 9, ARI 4 — Colorado Rockies beat Arizona 9-4, a margin of +5 covers the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm laying the five points tonight. Washington football team due to be whatever they nicknamed them, level two lock here over Cincinnati.”
WSH 17, CIN 13 — Washington beat Cincinnati 17-13 in preseason; a margin of +4 fails to cover the -5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going big here. Bet a little, win a lot. the Las Vegas Raiders plus 350 to make the playoffs.”
The Raiders beat the Chargers in Week 18 to finish 10-7 and clinched the AFC's No. 5 playoff seed, making the 2021 playoffs (Wikipedia).
“Level three lock here. The Atlanta Braves minus the one-and-a-half runs, minus 162.”
ATL 3, BAL 0 — Atlanta Braves beat Baltimore 3-0, a margin of +3 covers the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the Milwaukee Brewers minus the one and a half runs, minus 120, blowout special.”
STL 8, MIL 4 — Cardinals beat the Brewers 8-4 on Aug 19, 2021; Milwaukee lost outright, missing the -1.5 run line (ESPN).
“And Josie is 7 BetOnline line for this one Bad news Barbie minus 160 versus Josie Thoughts on this one Lee So we got to love the nickname One of the best nicknames out there. Think of Barbie, you think of, you know, pretty, prim, and proper. But this is a girl. I don't think she's ever fighting for the title. But she's got just so many tools in the toolbox, more than Nunez here. So she can win with her stand-up. It's getting better and better. She has a couple fights under her belt in the UFC, which is very important and can't be understated. You talk to fighters, and, you know, I go to some of these events, for instance, and went to Jacksonville and talked to a couple fighters there, went out to dinner, and we're talking about the first appearance inside the cage. And they said it's just like something you're almost like dreaming. And it's tough. It's tough your first time out to just do really well here. And Nunez has fought on lower-level circuits here. Maleky can win, stand up, or go to the ground. Nunez, all she is is a striker. Nothing else here. And I watched some of the fights. I mean, it's some real low-level stuff here. So we'll take Bia here. I just think she's going to be too much here. We're going with the bad news Barbie here. Level one lock.”
At UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum (Aug 21, 2021), Josiane Nunes knocked out Bea Malecki by punch in round 1 (4:54) (Wikipedia, citing official UFC results).
“New England Patriots against the Philadelphia Eagles. BetOnline.ag. Line for this one. We're going to roll New England minus one, minus 115 versus the Eagles. Break this one down. So everyone knows, you know, there's a quarterback competition going on here, and Bill Belichick one of the better preseason coaches And so you know that a known factor They got a running back competition going on Sonny Michel might want to look out Some people call him Phony Michel. He doesn't keep performing. He's going to be third string or cut. Ramondre Stevenson, if you watched the game last week, he is the real deal, the rookie running back. So the Patriots just find these guys, they use them for a couple years, and then they discard them. But right now they've got three really good ones here, and they just are deep everywhere. You know, coming off COVID, a lot of young guys to play did a real good job in free agency. They even got three good tight ends. They had none last year. So the receiving core has improved. Nelson Aguilar, he comes over. You know about him. He's going to be a nice addition to this team. So they've just got more weapons on offense. Always play solid defense here. I love Jonah Smith at tight end. I think he's going to be a big factor this year. And just think that Philadelphia is finding themselves with the new coaching staff. I'm laying the one here on the road here. Minus 115. Level two lock.”
35-0 — Patriots shut out the Eagles 35-0 on Aug 19, 2021, covering -1 easily (ESPN).
“So we're going to go under 7, minus 107, 105 here. And the Cardinals and Brewers game, wrong team favorite.”
STL 4, MIL 6 — Brewers beat the Cardinals 6-4 in 10 innings on Aug 18, 2021; combined 10 runs is well over the Under 7 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line from this one. We're going to roll Vince from hell. Paquille minus 108 versus Austin Thud Hubbard.”
At UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum (Aug 21, 2021), Vinc Pichel defeated Austin Hubbard by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) (Wikipedia, citing official UFC results).
“So the New York Yankees, money line, minus 115, level two lock.”
NYY 5, BOS 2 — Yankees beat the Red Sox 5-2 on Aug 18, 2021 to complete a sweep, so New York's moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“wrong team favorite Colorado Rockies money line plus 125 they get the bacon”
COL 6, SD 5 — Rockies beat the Padres 6-5 on Aug 16, 2021 on a walk-off Cron homer, so Colorado's moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“So let's lay the three here, even in preseason. I think New Orleans wins this year. Blowout special.”
NO 23, JAX 21 — Saints beat the Jaguars 23-21 on Aug 23, 2021; New Orleans won outright but only by 2, missing the -3 spread (ESPN).
“Level 2 lock, Oakland A's money line minus 105.”
CHW 5, OAK 2 — White Sox beat the Athletics 5-2 on Aug 16, 2021, so Oakland's moneyline busts (ESPN).
“I'm riding the Detroit Tigers again. Money line plus 104.”
DET 4, CLE 7 — Indians beat the Tigers 7-4 on Aug 13, 2021, so Detroit's moneyline busts (ESPN).
“So we'll take San Francisco at home here, minus one and a half. It's like stealing money here. Blowout special Saturday night on the San Francisco 49ers.”
SF 16, KC 19 — Chiefs beat the 49ers 19-16 in the Aug 14, 2021 preseason game; San Francisco lost outright and did not cover -1.5 (ESPN).
“Level three lock to end the week. Milwaukee Brewers, minus one and a half runs, minus 123.”
The Aug 13, 2021 Brewers-Pirates game was postponed and made up as part of an Aug 14 doubleheader, so the date-specific run line is no action (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Patriots plus two versus Washington football team. Give us your thoughts on this one, Lee. It's a tongue twister. 10 times and play a little Scrabble with it, but it is fun. Yeah, they need a nickname quick. But we got New England, and you got a quarterback battle. You got Cam Newton and first-year quarterback Mac Jones. And Cam Newton is not going to just give this thing away here. I think he's going to fight tooth and nail. Mac Jones looks pretty good, unlike some other rookie quarterbacks. And I think they got more depth. I think that you just look, I'm looking at their depth chart, and I'm hearing about the battles going on. Washington is going to be without Kyle Allen. He won't play in this game. So probably you'll see Taylor Heineke and then also Steven Montez, who I've never been a fan of. So I think you've got the better quarterbacks here. Also, remember Ryan Fitzpatrick. It's a new system for him. And, you know, for all the great moments that you think about, he has as many or more bad moments and throws a lot of interceptions. So when you've moved around, you've been on like eight, nine, ten teams like him. That's probably for a reason. So I don't think he's the answer for that team. He doesn't have much on his ball anymore. Look at some of the guys. I mean, New England gets a lot of guys back. They had a lot of guys opt out last year. So I think they upgraded their tight end position, Hunter Henry and Jonah Smith. Henry won't play in this game, but Jonah Smith, underrated tight end from the Titans. They've got some big-time receiver battles going on. They go about seven or eight deep at receiver, and those guys will show themselves. And remember these two names, Christian Barmore and Josh Uche. These are two young guys for New England, play on the edge. They're going to, I think, make some noise here in this game. Dante Hightower's back for the Patriots, along with Kyle Van Noy. So they'll probably play a few series here. And don't forget, Bill Belichick, 46-36 straight up. So he's an underdog. You're getting two points. See, a lot of games end in one point here. One point wins for one team. So they could even lose like 17-16, and you cover getting two points at home here. Give me the New England Patriots here over the Washington football team. wrong team favorite.”
22-13 — Patriots beat Washington 22-13 in the Aug 12, 2021 preseason opener, winning outright and covering +2 (ESPN).
“So we're going to go here. first five innings money line minus 182 blowout special”
CHW 7, NYY 3 (through 5 innings) — White Sox led the Yankees 7-3 through five innings of the Field of Dreams Game before winning 9-8, so the first-5 moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“The Slam Diego Padres and the Arizona clueless Diamondbacks here, over nine runs, minus 104, level two lock.”
ARI 12, SD 3 — Diamondbacks beat Padres 12-3 on Aug 12, 2021; combined 15 runs clears the Over 9 (ESPN).
“Tampa Bay Rays here. Money line, plus 106. Wrong team favorite.”
BOS 20, TB 8 — Red Sox routed Rays 20-8; Tampa Bay moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Toronto Blue Jays minus the one-and-a-half runs, minus 120, blowout special.”
TOR 10, LAA 2 — Blue Jays beat Angels 10-2; Toronto's +8 margin clears -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Dolphins here. Plus three-and-a-half, level two lock.”
CHI 20, MIA 13 — Bears beat Dolphins 20-13 in a 2021 preseason game behind Justin Fields' debut; Miami's -7 margin busts +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Atlanta Braves, plus the 102, Moneyline, wrong team favorite.”
ATL 3, CIN 2 — Braves beat Reds 3-2; Atlanta moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Green Bay, lay the three here. Get on it right now here.”
HOU 26, GB 7 — Texans routed Packers 26-7 in a 2021 preseason game marked by Jordan Love's abbreviated debut; Green Bay's -19 margin busts -3 (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for this one the tigers money line minus 105 versus the orioles”
DET 9, BAL 4 — Tigers beat Orioles 9-4; Detroit moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“We going to roll with the betonline line for this one Over eight and a half wins for the Cardinals minus 115”
Arizona finished the 2021 season 11-6, clearing Over 8.5 wins (ESPN team schedule/standings).
“Let's go with the White Sox here. Let's lay the one and a half runs, minus 120, blowout special.”
CHW 11, MIN 1 — White Sox routed Twins 11-1 behind two Eloy Jimenez homers; Chicago's +10 margin clears -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Cincinnati Reds to win the NL Central plus 600. Bet a little. Went a whole lot.”
Milwaukee won the NL Central at 95-67; Cincinnati finished third at 83-79, 12 games back (ESPN 2021 NL Central final standings).
“Toronto Blue Jays money line, minus 142. We just keep rolling along. Blowout special.”
TOR 12, BOS 4 — Blue Jays beat Red Sox 12-4, breaking it open with a 9-run 5th inning; Toronto moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“uh we gonna lay the the minus 110 here level two lock in the UFC on Saturday night Let keep rolling We going with Vincente Luque here”
Vicente Luque submitted Michael Chiesa via D'Arce choke at 3:25 of round one at UFC 265 (Wikipedia, UFC 265 event page). (Luque def. Chiesa, submission (D'Arce choke), round 1, 3:25)
“Man, betonline.ag line for this one. Phillies, money line minus 105 versus the Mets.”
PHI 4, NYM 2 — Phillies beat Mets 4-2, taking over the NL East lead on a Bryce Harper homer; Philadelphia moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Atlanta Braves, money line, minus 115, blowout special.”
ATL 8, STL 4 — Braves beat Cardinals 8-4; Atlanta moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“so Pittsburgh Steelers minus two and a half tonight over the overrated always overrated Dallas Cowboys level two lock”
PIT 16, DAL 3 — Steelers beat Cowboys 16-3 in the 2021 Hall of Fame Game; Pittsburgh's +13 margin clears -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“White Sox, Kansas City Royals, over nine and a half runs, minus 105, level two lock.”
CHW 2, KC 3 — Royals beat White Sox 3-2; combined 5 runs falls well short of the 9.5 total (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go here with Miami Marlins' first five innings, money line plus .135, wrong team favorite.”
NYM 3, MIA 2 — Mets led Marlins 3-2 through five innings en route to a 5-3 win; Marlins F5 moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“The Rangers team is totally outmatched Blowout special incoming LA Angels here Money line minus one 65 blowout special”
LAA 2, TEX 1 — Angels beat Rangers 2-1 on a Mayfield homer, with Ohtani picking up the win; Angels moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“over nine minus 160 level three lock here with the Tennessee Titans win total.”
Tennessee finished the 2021 season 12-5, clearing Over 9 wins (ESPN team schedule/standings).
“Over nine runs, minus 104 here in the Cincinnati-Minnesota game.”
Reds 5-Twins 7 — Minnesota beat Cincinnati 7-5 on Jorge Polanco's three-run blast; combined 12 runs clears Over 9 (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.ag line for this one, we're going to roll under 33 points, minus 115 for the Steelers-Cowboys Hall of Fame game.”
Steelers 16-Cowboys 3 — Pittsburgh beat Dallas 16-3 in the Hall of Fame Game; combined 19 points clears Under 33 (ESPN box score).
“Over 9.5, minus 110 in the Arizona Diamondbacks-San Francisco Giants game.”
Diamondbacks 3-Giants 1 — Arizona beat San Francisco 3-1 (MadBum's first win vs. his former team); combined 4 runs, Over 9.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Milwaukee Brewers, Moneyline, minus 190, blowout special.”
Brewers 6-Pirates 2 — Milwaukee beat Pittsburgh 6-2; Brewers moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“They could be 4-0 headed into USC over nine wins plus 140. Bet a little, win a whole lot. That's the kind of play I like.”
Utah finished the 2021 regular season 9-3, landing exactly on the 9-win line; Over 9 pushes (ESPN team schedule).
“Over 8.5, minus 110, level two lock.”
Rays 2-Mariners 8 — Seattle beat Tampa Bay 8-2 behind a five-run third inning; combined 10 runs clears Over 8.5 (ESPN box score).
“And the betonline.ag line for this one, Babyface minus 135 versus the Lion. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right so you look at the records and not very impressive from both fighters but I think there a clear right side to this fight here And I think it Ryan Benoit The reason I say so is I think he fought a different level fighter He has more experience. Adeshev, yeah, probably a better puncher. And, you know, if he catches Benoit, yeah, anything can happen. It's a fight. But listen to some of the fighters that Babyface has fought. he lost in 2016 a split decision to Brandon Moreno, the flyweight champion. Lost a unanimous but a pretty close decision to Tim Elliott in his last fight. He's fought some high-level fighters and he's competed. Maybe he's not going to be a top-five fighter. I don't think either guy is. But just fought better competition. He has better grappling. He has better submission game here. I don't know how he's going to win, whether it's going to be a submission, whether it's going to be a decision. But I just think he's going to get the job done here. And then Adeshev, he just hasn't fought fighters at all. I mean, he has fought less fighters and he's fought guys. If you look at his record, he's fought a bunch of guys just don't have the skills. And I think when you go up against better fighters, you know, that's where you prove your mettle. The only time he went against the high-level guy was Tyson Nam, and he lost, got knocked out in round one with a counter right. So I'm going to go here with babyface, minus the 135. He gets the job done.”
Zarrukh Adashev defeated Ryan Benoit by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC on ESPN: Hall vs. Strickland; Benoit moneyline busts (Wikipedia event results).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. One of these games that I like, man. One of my styles that I like. The Phillies, first five innings. Money line, minus 125 versus the Pirates. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so it's hard to predict games on the day of the deadline for most teams. But let's be honest. We know where the Pittsburgh Pirates stand moving forward. They traded in Frazier a few days ago. And since then, 0-3. They've been outscored, check this out, 28-3 in three games. It's tank season, to say the least, for the Pirates. Will Crow, he should do his part to help the Pirates tank as well. 0-4 with a 5-50 ADRA at home this season. And he's starting to allow some homers, which can be a big problem for young pitchers late in the season. He's allowing four in the last 15 innings pitch, and he's facing a Phillies lineup that needs to pick things up offensively here to make their playoff push. I'm going to leave this awful Philadelphia bullpen out of this one. They didn't acquire any help. I don't think it's going to help them for the playoff push, but their hitting is pretty darn good. And the Phillies have a major starting pitching advantage here. And I don't see the pirates breaking out of their offensive slump anytime soon here. Level two lock Philadelphia Phillies. First five money line minus one 25.”
Phillies 0-Pirates 7 — Pittsburgh led Philadelphia 7-0 through five innings (3 runs in the 1st, 2 in the 2nd, 2 in the 5th) en route to a 7-0 shutout; Phillies First 5 moneyline busts (ESPN box score line score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one the Tigers money line minus 143 versus the Orioles break this one down for us. So I was on the Tigers again yesterday and I can't think of a reason why not to be on them again here the Orioles are throwing out there an even worse starting pitcher than yesterday and the line has come down i mean i don't get it i strongly disagree with the lines makers here matt harvey has a 665 era which is near the worst in major league baseball he's been strong his last two starts in terms of runs allowed but he only has a combined six strikeouts and those two starts for a guy like him that allows a lot of hard contact He can't rely on fly balls and hard ground outs to get himself through a start. So against an offense as hot as Detroit, I'm not buying that he can last through the fifth inning. Tigers are 7-0, the last seven at home against a team with a losing road record. I think books are going to have to start adjusting their lines here with Detroit here. Level three lock. We're going to end the weekend with the Detroit Tigers on Friday night. money line minus 143 over the hapless Baltimore Orioles.”
Tigers 3-Orioles 4 — Baltimore edged Detroit 4-3; Tigers moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Tigers' money line, minus 153 versus the Orioles. Go ahead and give us the details on this one, Lee. Well, I liked them at the break. I liked watching them a couple weeks before the break. I saw the difference in this team, and they only have to win, I think, it was like 31 games. The second half of the season go like 31 and 41, something like that. 39 and 4 out of the gate since the All-Star break. They're playing some really good baseball right now, and they're averaging 6.3 runs per game since then. Casey Mize, one of these guys that they're really going to rely on him down the stretch, and he's in a good spot here against an Orioles offense that doesn't hit righties as well as lefties. So Baltimore just 7-18, their last 25 on the road, and they're going with a rookie here against one of the hottest teams in baseball. I take this line up here I play it up to minus 170 180 So get on it early here Detroit Tigers money line blowout special”
Tigers 6-Orioles 2 — Detroit beat Baltimore 6-2 behind two Miguel Cabrera home runs and seven strong innings from Casey Mize; Tigers moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Total for NC State, eight and a half wins minus 110. That's the betonline.ag line. Break this one down for us. How are you rolling in this one? Okay, so I'm going through usually two or three teams a game day right now in college football, maybe an NFL team. I did five teams today and was working on the ACC. Here's the situation. North Carolina State, whenever they have a winning record, you can look this up. Dave Dorn has been there since 2012. He's had two winning spread records for the season. The next year, they fall flat on the face. And I see it again. Now, they've got all these starters coming back, like 18, 19 starters. But the bottom line is, they're just not that good. They didn't beat anyone good. Here's a great setup. So the first week, they're going to play South Florida. And South Florida has a lot of transfers. They're really young. I know they have the Miami transfer quarterback, Williams. They'll beat South Florida. We want them to win that game big because the next week they go on the road to Mississippi State in Starkville. And they are 1-7 the last eight times against SEC opponents. They are 1-7 the last eight games against the spread on the road. This is a bad setup for them. So root for them to blow out. Probably won't play the first game of the year that NC State plays. But if they win big, then next week I am going to come back against them. Usually these average to not lower level, but average to a little below average teams in the SEC, they take care of the ACC teams. That's why the SEC is who they are. And eight and a half, I just don't see it happening. I think they're going to lose at Mississippi State. Then after Furman on parents and family weekend, you know, you always schedule teams like Furman for those. Then they've got to play Clemson. They've got to go on the road and play at Boston College. Boston College, I did tell you, they're going to be really good. They have a transfer quarterback from Notre Dame who will light them up They got to go against Miami on the road They never beat Miami They got to face Florida State and Wake Forest on the road and they finish up at home against a really good North Carolina squad. This is a 6-6, 7-5 team at best here. We're playing under the 8.5 wins for North Carolina State this year.”
NC State finished the 2021 regular season 9-3, exceeding the 8.5 win total; Under 8.5 busts (ESPN team schedule).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll over 10 runs, minus 110. Again, Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, this is another one of those situations where a doubleheader yesterday should bring a good opportunity today. The doubleheader brings a lefty-lefty matchup in today's game. And Rye for Toronto and Rodriguez for Boston. And for fans that like offense, these are the 6th and 8th rated lineups and weighted runs created, 7th and 6th in OPS, and then 8th and 5th in batting average against left-handed pitching. I've talked about how I think the Red Sox staff is going to struggle second half, and this should be a good opportunity for that to happen here. Over 10 runs, minus 110, level 2 lock.”
Blue Jays 13-Red Sox 1 — Toronto routed Boston 13-1; combined 14 runs clears Over 10 (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for this one the Braves plus 106 versus the Mets break this one down for us winner of this division might be might be winner by default So it possible we could have a team with a losing record And Atlanta might have a shot here to get themselves to 500. We gave out Max Freed as an NL Cy Young contender at the beginning of the season. He might have removed himself from the conversation in his first three starts of the year. But this is what he's done since then. In the month of May, yeah, he had an ERA of 11, 45, and three starts. Got hurt, went on the DL. Then since then, he has a 342 ERA and 13 starts. That's just 28 runs and under 74 innings. And 10 of those runs came in two starts. So for whatever reason, the Braves are 10 and one in his last 11 starts on Wednesdays. And Tyler McGill goes for New York. and the guy has been good this year in his limited appearances, seven earned runs in third innings. But you have to check a pitcher's game logs. Five of his earned runs came in the first two starts against these same Braves, and then he had the luxury of facing the Brewers and then the Pirates, who are both awful offensively, before the Blue Jays in his last start. The Mets offense has not hit lefties well recently. They're just 1-6 in the last seven against left-handed starters, and their bullpen is bound to be worn out after having to pitch 5-2. Innings here last night in the blowout loss, I made Atlanta minus 115-120. As an underdog, the wrong team is favored. Atlanta Braves, money line, they get the money here.”
Braves 1-Mets 2 — New York beat Atlanta 2-1 on Brandon Drury's seventh-inning homer; Braves moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“how about rafa gifted garcia he's 12 and 1 going up against chris gritz gritz and mocker i like that grits. I'm a big fan of grits. Grits and barbecue shrimp. I'm good with that. That's another story. Anyway, betonline.ag line for this one. Rafa, gifted Garcia minus 305 versus grits. Grits and Mocker. It was 14 and 4. What are your thoughts, Lee? So I like grits and shrimp also, but I think grits and Mocker's been eating too much grits and shrimp. Guy never seems to be in shape. He's always switching camps here. And not great fighters. I truly think both fighters will not be in the UFC within another year, but I think the first guy out is going to be Gritzenmacher. So he can't do much of anything. I mean, doesn't have a great punch, doesn't have good submissions. At least Garcia can submit guys. He throws these roundhouse punches. I mean, he comes from left and right field with his left and his right, but he lands some. I think he's a little tougher, a little better when they They go to the ground, better wrestler, jujitsu. So I'm going to lay the 305 here. This is going to be the blowout special. I think he takes them out in a couple rounds here. We're going to go with Rafa. I think Rafa, gifted Garcia, gets the job done, blowout special.”
Chris Gruetzemacher defeated Rafa Garcia by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC on ESPN: Hall vs. Strickland; Garcia moneyline busts (Wikipedia event results).
“BetOnline.ag, line for this one. We're going to roll the Rangers and Diamondbacks over nine runs, minus 105. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so both of these two teams combined, there's a couple teams that have almost as many wins as both these two teams combined. You know early in Lofton this year, whenever you hear these two teams' names, I'm going against them. But this is the first time I've picked, I think, the worst two teams in baseball. And we're going to take a different approach to this game. This is a matchup of quite possibly the two worst starting pitchers, also major league baseball this year, two of the worst teams as well. But this is tryout time for big league hitters in both lineups with trade deadline approaching. Guys like Joey Gallup for the Rangers and guys like Escobar, Peralta, and Calhoun for the Diamondbacks are looking to make a name for themselves to be traded to a contender. Luckily for them, Madison Baumgartner and also Jordan Lyles are on the mound for this one. Baumgartner owns the 18th worst whip in Major League Baseball, and he's making his first road start, believe it or not, since May 22nd in this one. Jordan Lyles, on the other hand, has the third worst whip in Major League Baseball, 1.45. And when you're looking at games like this one, sometimes it's best not to overthink things. These are two of the worst bullpens in the majors. And no matter how bad the lineups may be offensively in a nine-inning game, these pitching staffs often just get overworked and pitch themselves into bad situations. I think this happens here. We going with the over nine minus one of five and the stinky Texas Rangers and awful Arizona Diamondbacks game level one lock”
Rangers 2-Diamondbacks 3 — Arizona edged Texas 3-2 behind Madison Bumgarner; combined 5 runs, Over 9 busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Angels money line, minus 131 versus the Rockies. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So Jose Suarez was one of my favorite pitchers to fade in mid-league baseball the last couple of years. So I thought he would be on the same level this year. He had an ERA of 799 the first two years in the league. and then this year, 285 in 12 appearances. So I realize real quick that this guy has improved. The Angels have been forced to start him a few times recently due to injuries, but he's done fine there as well. In over 13 innings, he had 11 strikeouts, just seven runs allowed so far. He also has a .348. He already had home so far, and he's facing arguably the worst road offense in Major League Baseball in these Rockies. So Colorado to this point, 33 and 20 at home, plus 40 run differential. But on the road, they're 10 and 36 with a minus 98 run differential. They're averaging just 2.87 runs per game on the road. Adam Gomber, I call him Goober, goes for the Rockies here. And I think the Rockies are really withholding this guy's numbers, and they're keeping him down because he just came back from injury, And he was rolling through five innings against Seattle, but the Rockies manager pulled him after six innings. He's also 4-1 at home with a 198 ERA, but 3-4 with a 5-0-6 ERA on the road so far. For some reason, these Rockies pitchers have figured out how to pitch at Coors Field for about 10, 15 years. They couldn't pitch at Coors Field, did so much better on the road, but you've got to realize when things change. But they can't pitch away from home at all. I think this angels lineup is poised to really hit them. Well, they're second in major league baseball and OPS against lefties fifth and batting average against lefties. I think this is a setup for the angels to show some power against goober here. And, uh, this Rockies lineup just doesn have enough to keep up here So we going to go with uh the LA angels money line Moneyline Blowout Special”
Angels 3-Rockies 12 — Colorado routed Los Angeles 12-3; the Angels moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Saints, nine and a half, plus 110. Thoughts on this one, Lee? I don't get it. So the three biggest weaknesses for this team after last year, they lose the quarterback and so got to replace him with someone. They say, okay, we're just going to ride with what we had last year. And those two guys, you can get by for a couple games. You know, you throw some wrinkles and you game plan. 17 games, it's not going to work. Jameis isn't good enough. He's going to beat you. You know, he's going to beat himself over and over. He had on some big plays. He's going to throw 20, 25 interceptions if he plays often. Hill, you can have him run some packages, but that's it. He's not a good enough passer. They didn't find a second receiver on the other side for Michael Thomas. That was a huge weakness. And then cornerback. I mean, they had one cornerback. Lattimore is great, Marshawn Lattimore. But other than that, Patrick Robinson, Paulson Adebo, Keith Washington Jr., just not good enough. So I don't know what happened to the cap. What happens maybe is because, you know, they paid, you know, so many big guys so much money. They just kept rolling it over and over. And finally, they've got to pay the piper here. Nine and a half wins in an improved division here. Carolina's going to be much better second season to that head coaching staff. You've got Atlanta. Everything can't go wrong like last year. They lost every close game. And Tampa Bay is going to be better. I mean, Tampa Bay, yeah, they won the Super Bowl. But last year during the regular season, just 11-5, they can go 13-3, 14-2. So I'm playing under here. Under nine and a half wins, bet a little, went a whole lot going against the Saints on the win total.”
New Orleans finished the 2021 regular season 9-8, going Under 9.5 wins (ESPN schedule/standings).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The White Sox money line, minus 135 versus the Royals. Break this one down for us. It's another day and another start for Dylan. I call him, not Dylan Cease, Dylan Cease Fire, against a team under .500. I'm Chris Berman today. I don't know what it is. What got into me? I had two cups of coffee. So he's up now to 2-13 record against teams with winning records in his career. But 14-4 against teams with losing records, and he's putting up just a .336 ERA. And those starts better yet. He's already faced Kansas City twice this year. He's given up just one earned run over 10 innings for an 0-80-70 ERA. Sometimes we talk about fading pitchers when an offense gets to see them a couple times in a short period of time. But when you've been so dominant against a particular lineup, it's often just a scenario where they can't pick up the ball out of his hand. It's something. Or they just can't get the timing right. I think that's the case here for the Royals. It's also a fade against Brad. Keller, 2-5 with a 7-19 ERA at home this year. And the Royals have lost seven of the last eight starts. Overall, cease fire here has crushed the Royals this year. But the White Sox have crushed Keller on the other end. In his three starts against Chicago, giving up nine runs in 14 innings for a 5-65 ERA. So it's not like the White Sox have struggled with him. The White Sox bullpen has given them some problems here, but Kansas City's has been actually even worse. And I think ceasefire here gets enough fun support here to not even worry about it. So this should be a blowout here. We're going with the Chicago White Sox money line minus 135 level two lock.”
White Sox 5-Royals 3 — Chicago beat Kansas City 5-3 on Eloy Jimenez's go-ahead three-run homer; White Sox moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Phillies, money line, minus 113 versus the Nationals. Give us the details on this one. Yeah, so all of a sudden the Nationals could be in a sell mode while the Phillies are looking to gear up for a postseason run. Just a few weeks ago, Washington was talking about trading some of their big names on the market when they were hot. And they had a chance to take over a wild card spot. Instead, they've now lost 10 of the last 14, seven straight on the road. And there are now rumors that they're going to trade Max Scherzer to a contender here soon. So I think both of these teams know where they stand. And this series is going to tell us a lot about their seasons moving forward. Spencer Howard goes for Philly. He's been much better at home than on the road. He has a 270 ERA at Citizens Bank Park, and he's 2-0 with a 338 ERA in his last two starts. Joe Ross, on the other hand, starts for Washington. And I don't think you can trust him on the road right now. He does have a 321 ERA away from home. But his spin rates and his expected stats have continued to plummet since the foreign substance crackdown. So the Nationals 1-5, the last six home starts, including his second most recent road start, which was against these Phillies. So I know Philadelphia bullpen here is tough to trust, but so is Washington's right now. Let's take the home team that is 5-1 in the last six against a right-handed starter. Philadelphia Phillies money line minus 113 blowout special.”
PHI 6, WSH 5 — Phillies beat the Nationals 6-5 on July 26, 2021 (ESPN box score); Philadelphia ML cashes.
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll over nine and a half runs, minus 105. White Sox versus Royals. Break this one down for us, Lee. So I've talked a lot recently about Dallas Keuchel's struggles in his recent starts. And it explains a lot that the books have made Chicago just a minus 117 favorite over the Royals with a lefty on the mound for Kansas City. Keuchel has a 563 ERA in his last three starts. And 10 of his last 12 earned runs in those starts came against the Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers. Something is not right with Keuchel right now. In fact, the over 7-0 in his last seven starts against a team with a losing record. Mike Miner is listed here for Kansas City. And this is one of the longest-running storylines in Major League Baseball. Chicago continues to crush left-handed pitchers. They're 19-8 against lefties this year. They're fourth in OPS and fourth in batting average against left-handed pitchers. and they're getting minor at home where he has the 561 ERA has given up 10 earned runs in the last 18 innings pitch there. I think this is one of those games where either team could score eight to nine runs for us alone. This is going to be – this is one of your favorites here, Q. This is one that will be over by the fifth, sixth inning here. Over nine and a half runs, minus 105 in the White Sox and Royals game.”
KC 4, CHW 3 — Royals beat the White Sox 4-3 on July 26, 2021 (ESPN box score); combined 7 runs falls short of Over 9.5.
“bet a little win a lot i don't even know how i'm supposed to feel about this one but we'll get into it the la chargers over nine wins plus 116 in 2021 the uh training camp is opening up this season this week so that's the bet online.ag line the chargers over nine wins plus 116 for the 2021 season thoughts on this one lee so in the off season and summer i'm studying college teams usually two college teams a day and one nfl team and i was studying the chargers this weekend and hey i know it and i'm not one of these that that has been betting the chargers the last couple years number one because the injuries top two in the league and injured players out every single year the last four years and uh coaching staff Anthony Lynn was absolutely pathetic. So I grade coaches also. I think it's important. He blew, literally, he and his offensive coordinator, in my opinion, four games last year. Till the end of the season, till December, the most they lost a game by seven points. I mean, they literally one time got to the one yard line trying to run the ball right up the middle all four times. Absolutely pathetic. So I think just a change in coaching staff. UNIQ without any coaching experience. I mean, you could pull peewee guys off the youth leagues, and they could do a better job than this guy. So he was the worst-rated coach in the last 25 years that I've graded coaches. So I think that change will give you a couple wins. They went 7-9 last year with that coaching staff with all those injuries, and look at their schedule. The schedule is very important. They open up the season at Washington. That's winnable. Most of their home games, like the second week against Dallas, are at home. Even the third week, they had Kansas City, they lost in overtime. They played the Chiefs well. Hey, I know people are talking about the Raiders being improved, but with 17 games, all they got to do is go 10-7. I think it's easy peasy. 10-7, 11-6 for this Chargers team. and Justin Herbert, I think he's a potential. This year, top five quarterback over nine wins. Bet a little here, win a whole lot.”
Chargers finished the 2021 regular season 9-8, exactly matching the Over 9 wins total (ESPN team schedule); pick pushes.
“story time is 8-0 all-in is 16-4 betonline.ag line for this one soriano minus 115 verse all-in alan thoughts on this one lee yeah virtual pick them here and i think the public uh is gonna enjoy this fight and i don't think it's gonna go the distance i think that soriano is the right side here um a couple reasons i think he has more power and that's the the first thing and then i also think brendan allen isn't the smartest tool in the shed so um been burned in the past uh thinking that certain fighters will change their their game up and they'll go with what gives them the best chance to win but allen i mean he fought a fight a couple fights ago that was really disturbing i thought he could beat uh his opponent sean strickland but he just sat there in the middle and just took i mean some brutal punches finally got knocked out uh they stopped the fight uh punches, I mean, ground and pound in the second round, 132 left of the second round in that fight. And yeah, he won his last fight against Carl Roberson, but I'm still not so, whereas Puna, I mean, you talk about power. He knocked out Dusko Todorovic near the end of the first round. He knocked out Oskar Pachota with a left hook middle of the first round. And I just think this guy has potential to be something special so um we're gonna go here with the uh we're gonna go with the the small favorite here puna from oahu hawaii nice uh get the win here level one lock”
Brendan Allen defeated Punahele Soriano by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw on July 24, 2021 (Wikipedia); Soriano ML busts.
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. the A's minus 120 versus the Mariners. Go ahead and give us the details. Break this one down for us. Okay. You see Kukuchi, a guy we've talked about a lot on the show in the past, faces off here against Frankie Montes. So the game's in Seattle. And one of the biggest things we've talked about with Kukuchi and his career splits against the AL West here versus everyone else, he has a 546 ERA against the AL West and an ERA around 450 against everyone else. In fact, against the A's, Astros, and Angels, the top teams in the division, he has a career ERA of 589. I don't know what it is about these opponents, but he struggles with them. Another thing about Kukuchi coming into this matchup is he's not getting any run support from his offense at home. The Mariners' offense, 14th in Major League Baseball and runs per game on the road. But overall, they're 25th in runs per game because they're the second worst offense in the majors at home with just 3.3 runs per game. Kikuchi has received just 23 runs in support in his seven home starts this year. And I think that's going to be a problem for him here. He was placed on the COVID list for a short period of time, and his spin rates and his pitch speeds have not recovered. I think he might be dealing with an injury here and really struggled the last two starts. Whereas on the other side, Frankie Montez, I know you cringe probably when you see him pitching. He is unreliable. And he was really horrific at the start of the year. In fact, in the first 16 starts, he gave up 14 home runs, 87 innings pitch, and had the ERA 472. But he has now faced Cleveland, Boston, and Houston in the last three starts. and he's given up no home runs with 23 strikeouts and 18 innings. I think against the Mariners lineup, he has a mismatch, and I don't think the books are accounting for it. So the athletics here should run away with this one early. Oakland A's money line, minus 120, level two lock.”
SEA 4, OAK 3 — Mariners beat the Athletics 4-3 on July 23, 2021 (ESPN box score); Oakland ML busts.
“the la angels going up against the minnesota twins who the minnesota twins just just traded their best hit hitter which is a nelson cruz the angels are 47 and 48 the twins are 41 and 56 bet online.ag line for this one the angels money line minus 119 versus twins give us this level three lock lee okay so one of the most popular bets of the day yesterday was the twins and angels over nine and a half the public hammered it uh i think there's almost 90 of the bets that were wagered on it when i see something like that i'm like oh this is bad news you either lay off the game if you're thinking about betting or you go the other side just it just trust me i've seen and studied lines for 28 years so um the public hammered it and then Nelson Cruz got traded to Tampa Bay just before the game. That basically put the bet to bed. You have to wonder about the motivations of teams like the Twins with the deadline coming up. It's one thing if you're the Orioles or the Rangers who expected to be bad this year, but it's another thing if you're a team like the Twins who expected to contend for the division and have been the biggest disappointment, in my opinion, of Major League Baseball. The Cruz trade last night, I think, impacted that game. and it impacted the twins mindset moving forward uh jay hap must have been i don't know what he has on twins management to keep getting starts at this point because he's been awful it's like they're if it was the nfl i'm like okay they're playing for the first pick here but he's a 615 era this year and it's actually worse at home 841 he's in the bottom 10 of all starting pitchers and everything from barrel percentage to expected batting average to whiff rate. And he's going up against one of the best lineups in major league baseball against left-handed pitchers. LA is second in OPS sticks and batting average and fourth and home runs against lefties this year. So Alex Cobb is not an all-star pitcher for the angels by any means, but he's four and over the four Oh three year array against teams with losing records this year. And the angels six and O in the last six starts in this situation, I don't see the twins being a winning team going forward. I think their mindset is shot. This is going to be a blowout here. LA Angels money line minus 119 level three lock.”
MIN 5, LAA 4 — Twins beat the Angels 5-4 on July 23, 2021 (ESPN box score); Los Angeles ML busts.
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. the Yankees plus 124 versus the Red Sox. Give us the details. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so we talked recently about being able to fade the Boston Red Sox in the coming weeks, given the schedule and concerning projections for the starting pitching staff. I think tonight is a good night to give that another try. So we have all gotten ahead of ourselves before thinking that the Yankees have started to turn things around, but they're 3-1 in the last four games after the All-Star break, and they're 8-3 in the last 11 overall. Maybe, finally, Aaron Boone finally considered other ways to score rather than relying on the power bats of Stanton, Judge, and Boyd. So because of those type of deficiencies in the past, he's gone to injuries, stealing bases, executing bunts, and doing the little things to get some runs across. Jordan Montgomery, 0-4 in his last four starts, but he hasn't been all that bad. He has a 470-year array with 24 strikeouts and 23 innings. He just hasn't received any run support. The Yankees have scored just five runs in those starts. With everything being talked about, I think they can turn that around tonight. We also talk about guys' motivations in baseball, especially in the dog days of summer. And if you'll remember in that last Boston-New York series before the break, the Red Sox swept the Yankees in Boston with Garrett Cole and Montgomery getting hit pretty hard. I'm sure they have some revenge on their minds here, and I think they continue this hot streak they're on. So what we're going here with is we're going to take the New York Yankees money line wrong team favorite.”
BOS 5, NYY 4 — Red Sox beat the Yankees 5-4 in 10 innings on July 22, 2021 (ESPN box score); Yankees ML busts.
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Sandman minus 200 versus TJ Dillashaw. UFC fight night. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so Corey Sanhagen is elite. He is 7-1 in the UFC. His only loss was to Al Jermaine Sterling. What did he do? He made one mistake Al Jermaine Sterling got on his back and couldn shake him and got rear naked choked at the end of the first round But other than that he took out Frankie Edgar Didn't decision him. Took him out in the first round. Marlon Mariah, second round, back-to-back flying knee against Edgar. Wheel kick with Mariah. So he came back from that loss. I think he learned a lot. And everyone makes a mistake. All his other wins are just, I mean, he does arm bars, ground and pound. I mean, he has it all. So I think he is right there on the cusp of winning a title. Now he's fighting TJ. And TJ, I like TJ. I think TJ is likable. I think he's fun to watch. But the problem here is the reach advantage. I mean, the height and the reach advantage. TJ Dillashaw is not a tall fighter. So he's 5'6". You don't realize it sometimes when you watch a fight. He's 5'6", and he has a 68 reach. So he's going to be fighting a fighter here that is just – he hasn't fought. Sometimes you've got to look at the types of fighters that a fighter has fought. And he's fighting a fighter here who is 5'11", has a 70-inch reach. So I think Sanhagen's reach advantage is huge. I think the fact that TJ Dillashaw has not fought in two years because he was suspended, and we don't know, obviously, it didn't hurt him that he was taking steroids. And he fought a guy in his last two fights before losing to Cejudo, and no one beats Henry Cejudo. Corey Garbrandt, who Cody is just not a smart fighter. I mean, talented, but not smart. So other than that, he won by a couple decisions. I just think the Sandman takes it here. I think he's just got too much on the ground, throwing punches, kicks, and if the fight goes to the ground, it's over here. The Sandman blowout special, minus 200 here over TJ Dillashaw.”
TJ Dillashaw defeated Cory Sandhagen by split decision at UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw on July 24, 2021 (Wikipedia); Sandhagen ML busts.
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Atlanta Braves team total over four and a half runs, minus 117 versus the Phillies. Give us the details on this one. Well, thank you. You know what? I don't have to pick a side here. We got two mediocre teams. Probably be a one run game. Something stupid would probably result in the deciding run being scored, maybe like a pass ball or a balk. So we're not going to go that route here. We're going to take a team total. So the betting market continues to fade Matt Moore. He was supposed to pitch yesterday against the Yankees, but he was delayed until today. And we're seeing the same line movement against him for tonight's game that we did last night. Philadelphia is actually 4-0 in his last four starts, but it's not like he has been throwing good games. He has a 7-43 year away at home this year, and he has thrown a combined 17 innings in those last four starts. So he barely is getting to the fifth inning right now. He has already thrown seven innings against the Braves lineup in three separate occasions. And with a guy like Moore who doesn't have any impressive stuff or control, I think that's a big advantage here for Atlanta. If Moore doesn't make it deep into the game, the Phillies will have to turn to their bullpen, which has been bottom 10 in Major League Baseball, again, in the ERA this year. So I know the Atlanta lineup is not as impressive without a Kuhn in there, But they've actually come out of the break strong scoring runs, and I think they do it again here tonight. We're playing over four and a half runs here for the Atlanta Braves team total.”
ATL 7, PHI 2 — Braves beat the Phillies 7-2 on July 22, 2021 (ESPN box score); Atlanta's team total of 7 clears Over 4.5.
“betonline line for this one the Cubs money line plus 110 versus the Cardinals break this one down for us Lee All right so last night loss for the Cardinals might have been the backbreaker when we look back on this season for this club. They gave up not one, two, or three, six runs in the top of the ninth to blow the lead in the game, and that actually puts them at the same record as the Cubs. So the Cubs are sellers. It looks like they're going to be at the deadline. These two teams are now also tied second-worst record in all central. So, I mean, I know it's competitive in the NL Central. I just think we're going to see a lot of sellers here. So it was a brutal loss. And at home, I just think they're in a free-fall mode right now. Adam Wainwright has been good at home this year, and we've talked about it. But if you go back and look at his recent opponents at Bush Stadium, it's not like they're some sort of hard-hitting offenses. He gave up four runs in six innings to the Giants, and then he got to face the Pirates, Marlins, Indians, and the Reds on the road, who are a different group away from the team at home that you see. So what I'm backing here is Kyle Hendricks. So he had an awful month of April here where he went one and three with a 754 ERA. But since then, he's 11 and one with a 265 ERA and 14 starts. That's the typical Kyle Hendricks that we are used to. He is pitching on four days rest, but he's actually six and oh, the last six starts on four days rest. So it's not like he's uncomfortable here. I think the Cardinals lineup will continue to struggle here. especially with how Hendricks has pitched up late here. Wrong team favorite, Chicago Cubs, a money line plus 110.”
STL 3, CHC 2 — Cardinals beat the Cubs 3-2 in 10 innings on July 21, 2021 (ESPN box score); Cubs ML busts.
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Astros, minus one and a half runs, minus 125 versus the Indians. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so the Astros here play pretty good ball. And the Indians, yeah, they've done a good job battling through injuries and staying in the playoff race so far this year. But they've lost three of their starting pitchers for extended periods of time, and their offenses picked up the team in that absence. I think pretty well, but I don't think their luck is going to carry over here to tonight's matchup against Lance McCullers. McCullers, 7-2 with a 2.80 ERA this year. Astros, stellar, 10-5 record in his 15 appearances this year. And in those 10 wins, they have covered one and a half runs as a favorite, nine of those 10. But by all accounts, McCullers is ready, and he's really having a career year this year. He's just not allowing hard hits, and he's striking out guys in his lead rate, and his spin rates are actually being sustained through the foreign substance crackdown as well. That's really important to monitor. Some guys are really falling off, and we'll hit on some of those guys and go against them the next couple weeks. his counterpart Eli Morgan goes for the Indians tight and he's one of these guys standing in for the normal starters with all the injuries going on he has not held his own well through this year he's 0-2 with 8-53 ERA against teams with a winning record and how about this 12 3rds ending against those teams he has already given up four home runs facing an Astros lineup that has some serious power especially at home I think Morgan is in for a long long evening here Houston Astros, minus the one and a half runs, minus 125, blowout special.”
CLE 5, HOU 4 — Indians beat the Astros 5-4 on July 21, 2021 (ESPN box score); Houston lost outright, so -1.5 busts.
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Matrix plus 250 to win inside the distance. And I know right now you're saying, Q, what is inside the distance? A KO, a TKO, a submission, a disqualification, basically anything besides a decision. That's what it is. So, Lee, break this one down for us. All right, so the card on Saturday night, UFC fight night, it's Corey Sanhagen and TJ Dillashaw as the main fight. And a lot of people are excited about that fight. Also, some recognizable fighters on the card, guys like Darren Elkins, Derek Minner, Mickey Gall, Brendan Allen, Ian Heinish. So a bunch of recognizable names. And what happens is the average fan will just gloss over and say, Kyler Phillips, Roland Palva, I'll each have like four or five fights on the UFC. I don't see anything here. I'm not going to bet it. But here something and this is why we been able to win at a high rate in the MMA and the UFC So Roland Palva I don think is very good He is a flyweight until now He missed weight in his last fight by four pounds He was 129 when he should have been 125. And he won his last two fights. Well, actually he won his last fight and I didn't think he won. I thought it was a bad decision. So in my mind, he's one in three, his last four fights. Now they're telling him, okay, time to move up. And they made him take this fight on short notice, three weeks instead of a normal six week camp. He's going to fight a guy here. Kyler Phillips, I think is coming on. Kyler Phillips right now, 26, huge improvement. Every single fight, he has great standup. He has underrated submissions. And in his last fight, He fought a guy, Yadong Song, who hits like an absolute truck and quick as can be. So now, Tova, who I just don't think is that good, and he's going to be the smaller fighter. By the time they go out there and lace him up, he's going to look 15, 20 pounds smaller than his opponent and just think he's going to be overwhelmed, whether he stays on his feet or he tries to take it to the ground here. Lest he lands a lucky punch, he's in trouble. So most people look at the odds and they'll say, oh, okay, well, Phillips is minus 260 to minus 300. I'm not going to bet that. But to finish the fight inside the distance, you're going to get anywhere from 240 to 260, 250 at betonline.ag. I'm picking Kyler Phillips, the matrix, plus the 250.”
Raulian Paiva defeated Kyler Phillips by majority decision at UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw on July 24, 2021 (Wikipedia); Phillips did not finish inside the distance.
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll the way I like. The Miami Marlins, first five innings, money line, minus 120 versus the Nationals. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So I know you like the first five inning games, and that got you excited, But I'm sure you were doing a double or triple take when you saw, I told you, and when I sent you the list of the games I'd be talking about and picking the Marlins after losing 18-1. But just like the San Francisco and L.A. game last night, this is another pitching matchup that I think is being seriously overlooked by the book so far. Trevor Rogers is a National League Cy Young candidate here, if not a Rookie of the Year candidate right now for Miami. Since the start of June, he has a .303 ERA with just a .191 batting average against. He has just a .212 ERA on the road so far, and he's given up two or fewer own runs in each of his last six starts. He's a young guy, so you don't have to worry about his pitch count right now, but maybe you do as the season goes on. But he had nine days of rest with the All-Star break. I think he's ready to carry the team for the first part of the second half, and he knows that he is the top pitcher on the staff, and he's got to step up, especially after the game last night. The Marlins were blown out last night. They had to use relievers in seven of the eight innings they pitched, so I'm not going to rely on the Miami bullpen tonight. Let's just stick with the first five innings. Miami Marlins, first five innings, minus 120, level one lock.”
WSH 2, MIA 0 (through 5 innings; final WSH 6, MIA 3) — Nationals led the Marlins 2-0 through five innings en route to a 6-3 win on July 20, 2021 (ESPN box score); Marlins F5 ML busts.
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The White Sox versus the Twins over nine and a half runs. Minus 105. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so one of the tips I wanted to share this past week when we had very little to bet on was betting doubleheaders in Major League Baseball. Got a couple questions about it. Didn't get time to get to it, so we'll get to it now. So it's one of the taboo situations in baseball betting. I very rarely give out plays to clients when two teams play doubleheaders because you never know which guys are going to be in the lineups for either game. However, the day after a doubleheader often gives you some good spots. I think we have one here in the twin Sox matchup. Dallas Keuchel faces off here against Bailey Ober after a wild doubleheader yesterday. Game one goes to extra innings, and the White Sox walk it off with three in the bottom of the seventh inning to win the game, too. So when you have two pitching staffs that battle for a full day of games here especially late in high leverage games I think it provides a good opportunity the next day to bet the over especially when someone like Heichel pitching He been struggling of late particularly against lineups that hit lefties well Teams like the Astros, the Tigers, and the Twins have a lot of success on him this year. He's given up four home runs in the last 16 innings pitched, and he's getting a Twins lineup that has hit left-handed pitches here very well. They're, in fact, seventh in OPS, eighth in batting average, and first in home runs against lefties this year. I think he will struggle, and I think both bullpens will give up a few runs also. This line should have opened 10, 10.5. It might get there by third inning here. We're going to go with the over 9.5 in the White Sox and Minnesota game, level two luck.”
CHW 9, MIN 5 — White Sox beat the Twins 9-5 on July 20, 2021 (ESPN box score); combined 14 runs clears Over 9.5.
“but that's where they find themselves right now betonline.ag line for this one milwaukee minus five versus suns lee break this one down for us all right so one of the craziest years ever in NBA history one of the craziest finals ever we seen And you know I don think it over I mean I picked Phoenix to win the seven series I have my money on Phoenix And, hey, I love the Milwaukee fans. I think they're into it. I think they've been incredible. But I think this is going to be tough to close out Phoenix. So the key to this game here, it's not Devin Booker. Devin Booker has been sensational for the most part. He had a bad game three where he's benched by Monte Williams. But Chris Paul and DeAndre, these guys got to show up. And if they show up and it starts with defense, it turns into offense. They have the seventh-rated defense. So it hasn't exactly looked that way all the time. But this is desperation time. This is when they've played their best basketball. Look at them on the road. People bet teams at home early and often. Look like an easy win. Phoenix will come home. They'll take game five. You lay four or five points. You got a winner. Not the case. Now they're 6-2 against the spread the last eight row games against teams with winning records. And I don't know what it is. I look back. This trend is true. The Bucs are 0-4 against the spread in the last four Tuesday games. So something happens on Tuesday. You know, hump Wednesday. Sometimes that's a problem for teams on Wednesdays. But Tuesdays are tough for this team here. So I expect them to come back here. And also Milwaukee has not been the line. Here is five. They're just 26, 29 and one when favored by five or more here in a game here. It's going to seven games here. I'm going to lay it on the line. How about this? I'm taking Phoenix plus the five points for half my wager.”
MIL 105, PHX 98 — Bucks beat the Suns 105-98 in NBA Finals Game 6 on July 20, 2021 (ESPN box score); Milwaukee's 7-point win covers -5, so Suns +5 busts.
“I'm taking Phoenix plus the five points for half my wager. And the other half Phoenix Suns on the money line level three locks.”
MIL 105, PHX 98 — Suns lost NBA Finals Game 6 to the Bucks 105-98 on July 20, 2021 (ESPN box score); Suns ML busts.
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Going to roll Giants money line plus 115 versus the Dodgers. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so back in the day, you did not, and if there was free agency yet or you were cut by a team, you did not go to your rival. It just didn't happen. And this is one of the top three rivalries in baseball if you go all the way back through the years. So we talked about the second half and the Dodgers coming up and coming on. They're World Series favorites and for good reason, but they still haven't played their best baseball yet. Now Mookie Betts goes down with an injury in the weekend series, and they're pretty thin in the bullpen. I think the Dodgers really start to round into form soon, but with all the injuries up and down the lineup, It might be the beginning of August before they hit their stride. Kevin Gaussman has been one of the best surprises in Major League Baseball this year. He's coming to this one with a 5-2 record, just a 135 ERA on the road in 2021. He's even 6-1 with a 170 ERA against teams with winning records so far. He's been their ace. He likes it. He thrives on it. And I think this one means more to the Giants than it does to the Dodgers. This pitching matchup really should favor him over Tony Gosselin more. And I think the books have made a mistake here. We're going with the Giants here. Moneyline, wrong team favorite.”
SF 7, LAD 2 — Giants beat the Dodgers 7-2 on July 19, 2021 (ESPN box score); Giants ML +115 cashes.
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Blue Jays money line minus 120 versus the Red Sox. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so I've been keeping a close eye on the Red Sox during this weekend series right after the All-Star break against the Yankees, and it's been a really weird one for them. So they had a great game on Friday to get things going, and then Saturday it was a rainy, frustrating game for them with some distractions between players and fans, and then they were pretty much neutralized by the Yankees pitching early on Sunday. I've mentioned it before, but I'm curious to see if Boston falls off a bit in the second half here. They had one of the easiest schedules in Major League Baseball in the first half. Got to really look into layers, you know, why are they good? Yeah, they played above their talent level, but they faced an easy, easy schedule. So then they had, after the break, 22 of the first 25 games are against divisional opponents in the playoff race. So they're going to have a tough time of it. Their pitching staff has really struggled since the foreign substance crackdown. And they have to go to Buffalo to face the Blue Jays here. Ross Stripling has really rounded into form recently with the .350-80 array. his last seven starts and the Blue Jays are hitting the doggone cover off the ball right now especially at home I think this is a good spot to fade Boston here and and we might have a few more spots to fade them in the coming weeks So this one could get ugly for Sox fans”
BOS 13, TOR 4 — Red Sox routed the Blue Jays 13-4 on July 19, 2021 (ESPN box score); Blue Jays ML busts.
“Well, I'm not going to give you the team yet. I'm going to give you a couple facts about this team. Okay. I like smart teams. How would you like to back a team in a future that is ranked first in fewest penalties two years in a row? Just 23.8 penalty yards per year last year. That's pretty good, right? Yes, that's great. How about this? How about a team that has 90 letter winners returning from last year? How about this? How about the team that's number three ranked total defense in their conference? Another thing you can tip your cap to. How about if you're in a smaller conference, a quarterback that started a couple games and was right there with a quarterback who a lot of people think is an all-conference quarterback in a major conference? So 12 games, what would you guess? What's the win total over or under on a team like this in a smaller conference? I mean, if you're talking all those details that you just rolled out, I think they're talking about at least nine-plus wins. Okay. So it's the Rice Owls. Wow. And the total's five. Now, it is the first three games out of the gate are against Arkansas, who they're an underdog to 20 points. Houston, they'll be a dog probably 17 to 20. In Texas, they'll be probably 25 to 30. But then get to play Texas Southern. W. Southern Mississippi. W. UTSA. W. UAB is probably a loss, but they get North Texas, Charlotte, Western Kentucky. UTEP means U They terrible And Louisiana Tech not very good And they get two transfer quarterbacks in Well one of them a kid named Jake Constantine at Weber State last year over 4,000 passing yards, 33 touchdowns. But the jewel, Luke McCaffrey, who is at Nebraska. And, I mean, he almost gave Martinez a run. Just couldn't beat him out. and I love their new offensive coordinator, Marcus Tuisosopo. Used to be the quarterback at Washington and his pedigree, he was at Cal, he was at Washington. I watched your spring game. They look good. I'm playing over five on the Rice Owls here. Level two luck.”
Rice finished the 2021 regular season 4-8, well under the Over 5 wins total (Wikipedia team season page).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Tampa Bay Rays, plus 120 versus the Braves. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so I talked about yesterday how I liked Tampa Bay to possibly win the World Series 12-1. So the last two weeks have been an absolute roller coaster for both of these teams. We talked about Tampa Bay on the podcast and that they really found their groove this year in every facet of the game, defensively, offensively, and on the mound. And even in the bullpen, they're playing well. So they won six of the last seven games going into the All-Star break. And one of the main concerns for them moving forward was their pitching staff, particularly on the back end, was going to be worn out over 162-game season. But they have had their first extended break of the season, and they're coming into the second half on fire. For Atlanta, a ton of problems. Acuna goes down with a torn ACL just before the break, and now what do you do? Freddie Freeman is going to be a free agent, and you still never know what they're going to do to back him up here in the lineup. It looks like by acquiring Jack Peterson, okay, it's a short-term solution. It's a stopgatted solution. Atlanta doesn't have much offensive depth to keep up with a team like Tampa Bay. Peterson won't play in the game tomorrow. And so that's a problem. Charlie Morton starts this game knowing there's a good chance that he's going to be traded before the deadline i think there's a ton of questions surrounding the atlanta braves right now and they know it and and you don't think that it's on their minds absolutely almost every player on that team this is not a good place for them to be wrong team is favored here tampa bay plus 120 money line a wrong team favorite”
TB 7, ATL 6 (10 innings) — Tampa Bay beat Atlanta 7-6 in 10 innings on Austin Meadows' walk-off RBI single (ESPN scoreboard).
“bet online.ag line for this one cupcake versus renault is minus 140 cupcake minus 140 verse renault what's your thoughts on this one lee okay Misha is only 34 years old. If she was coming back at 37, 38 years old, I'd say, you know what? No chance, but she was burnt out. That's why she stopped fighting. She had two kids, saw some highlights of her training. She looks pretty darn good. Now, she ended with two losses, but to Amanda Nunez, who might be the greatest fighter ever, Raquel Pennington, a unanimous decision. And I just think she would have won that fight if her mind was right. Before that, she beat Holly Holm with a rear naked choke round five. She beat Jessica I, Sarah McMahon. She was right there at the very top when she stopped. So do I think she's going to win the title? Maybe not. But I think she's going to be able to make some noise for the next couple years. Marion Renaud has never beaten anyone decent. She started fighting professionally at 34 years old. So, I mean, she's lost to Mary Chasen. She got beat up by Raquel Pennington, same fighter there. Yana Kunitskaya, who we had last week, lost a unanimous decision 2019. She's lost her last four fights. She's 9-7-1. Misha Cupcake-Tate here, blowout special. She's going to ground and pound her, win this fight easy.”
Miesha Tate stopped Marion Reneau by third-round TKO (punches) at 1:53 (Wikipedia, sourced to official UFC result). (Tate def. Reneau, TKO (punches) R3 1:53)
“We're going to talk a little bit of a futures. The Detroit Tigers, over 71.5 wins total for the season. That's the betonline.ag line. Lee, what are your thoughts on that? Okay, so I'm really liking what I'm seeing with this Detroit Tigers team here. This is a Detroit Tigers team that is under the radar. They were horrible to start the year, but they're in a horrible division with the 45 and 42 Indians sitting in second place. And the Twins and Royals are going to be blowing things up here soon. What's interesting about this season for Detroit is that the trade deadline here obviously brings a lot of veteran pieces out of bad teams into good ones. But the Tigers, frankly, don't have any good veteran players. So they have one defensive starter here over the age of 30, and the same goes for their starting pitcher. I just don't think they have much reason to blow things up this year. Because of that, I think they're going to play above 500 ball. In fact, they're 31-27 in the last 58 games here. So you've got a couple teams that are going to be trading players off, like the Twins and the Royals. And I think A.J. Hinch is a fantastic manager for this group. I don't see them blowing it out anytime soon here. Over 71 and a half games here. Minus 105.”
Detroit finished the 2021 season 77-85, clearing Over 71.5 wins (Wikipedia, 2021 Detroit Tigers season). (Detroit: 77 wins)
“It's the betonline.ag line for the Mariners versus the Angels. Over eight and a half runs, minus 120. This is the lock of the day, Lee. Break it down. All right. One of the things I like to do every season around this time is I like to circle a couple of guys who might have overperformed in the first half of the year and have regression signs here moving forward. So one of those guys is Chris Flexin for the Seattle Mariners. He 8 with a ERA this year But that jumps to on the road So there two things that stick out to me about him He has been in the league since 2017 Seems like he just started like in 2019 or 20, but he has never pitched into the month of August before. He has been on limited appearances for his whole career, and he's jumping back into a 162-game season as the ace of a team in a playoff run. I think the pressure is going to get to him. This guy is like a third starter on a good team. So just think that he just doesn't have a ton of experience. So he hasn't gotten swings and misses this season. So the reason I love to play a lot of locks here and totals second half here this season is things, the data. It just starts coming up and up. Listen to a couple of these things. So he ranks in the 10th percentile. Here's a guy with a really good record, 8-3, pretty respectable, 351 ERA. But he's in the 10th percentile in K-rate, 7th percentile in whiff rate. So he's pitching to a lot of contact. I mean, he should be like 4-9, 4-10. In the second half of the season, when strong offenses make strikeouts even harder, it's a real cause for concern. And on the other side, Andrew Haney for the Angels, he has still not impressed me any time this year. 538 ERA in 15 starts. He's 3-6 with a 6-0-7 ERA against teams with a winning record. We've said it before, but when your ace is also your best hitter, your pitching staff is garbage. So that's why the Angels drafted a pitcher, I don't know if you realize this, with all 20 of their draft picks. I don't know if it's the craziest thing. I've never seen it before. Maybe it's happened, but I can't remember when. It's also why their pitching staff is in for a rough day against a Mariners team that hits the ball much better on the road than at home here. Over eight and a half runs here in the Seattle-LA Angels game.”
SEA 6, LAA 5 (11 runs) — Seattle beat the Angels 6-5 on three hits from Mitch Haniger; the 11 combined runs cleared 8.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Betonline.ag line for this one. Tampa Bay is plus 1,200 to win the whole thing. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So a lot of people don't know the players on Tampa Bay. It's not like the Yankees. You know, everyone knows Aaron Judge. They know Stanton, you know, but they are solid in every single position. They have pitching. They hit for power now. They hit for average. They play defense. They're well coached. This is an under-the-radar team here. So I love this MLB future. I think this season is going to be one of these years where it's wide open, other than maybe the favorite. And right now, I mean, they're plus 1,400. I mean, they're listed. I'm sorry, plus 1,200. They're listed as tied for the sixth favorite here with Boston and San Francisco. They're better than those two teams. I can't trust the Mets in postseason if they make it their first time. even the Padres plus 900 you know a lot of talent but uh trust me Tampa Bay's been there before plus 1200 I love the play bet a little win a lot I love Tampa Bay I hit that and uh hey for the for the fall break when I go to New York City I might be living it up there”
The Boston Red Sox eliminated Tampa Bay 3 games to 1 in the 2021 ALDS; the Rays did not win the World Series (Wikipedia, 2021 ALDS).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Matisse, Gamer, Gamrot, minus 205 versus Jeremy Little Heathen Stevens. Thoughts on this one? All right, so UFC has been good to us of late. Had a really good card last week. and I just think that Gamot is one of these guys that I think he's eventually probably going to fight for the championship and you'll look at his record and this is what some people do and they'll see a loss so he's 18 and 1 right now they don't count when they have a grappling bout he lost a grappling bout in 2019 it's not a UFC bout and then also Here's a guy that's from Poland. When he fights in the levels before he gets to the UFC, he fought some tough fighters. Some of these promotions are much better than, believe it or not, some in the States. He fought some tough promotions. He lost his only fight in 2020, and it was a split decision. I thought that he won the fight. So many times now, go back and watch a fight. A loss is not just a loss. You've got to look at the loss. The guy that he fought might have had more, he put more pressure. But the bottom line is, Garen Mrodt, he landed the more significant blows. So sometimes I think some of these judges don't judge fights correctly. This was one of them. In my mind, he's undefeated. I think he's going to take apart Stevens. I think Stevens, 35, kind of on a steep decline right now. Stevens is one of these guys. He got to a certain level. He just can't beat that level above him. He can't find a way, whether it's by strikes or on the ground, just not at that level, and he's never going to be there. So we're going to go with Gamrod here, and I think he's going to get it done for us, and we're going to keep rolling here in the UFC.”
Mateusz Gamrot submitted Jeremy Stephens with a first-round kimura at 1:05 (Wikipedia, sourced to official UFC result). (Gamrot def. Stephens, submission (kimura) R1 1:05)
“This one is also a futures on the Dodgers to win the World Series. Old Blue, betonline.ag line for this one. The Dodgers plus 360 to win the whole thing. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so here's my thought on this. I just think that they've been going through the motions. A lot of times when you win a championship, first half of the next season, you go through those motions, and it might even happen with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year for a little bit. But San Francisco, who's leading the division by two games over the Dodgers, I think they're going to fade down the stretch. I think the Dodgers are much more talented. And if that's the case, I mean, they're just one game in the win column behind San Francisco. Milwaukee has 53 wins. They're not great. The Mets, they're leading the East with 47 wins. Then they're going to be the number one seed. And I just think that their lineup is just so good. They're so deep. They've been there before. They really don't have any weaknesses. And like I said, I think they're going to turn it on here. And looking at the National League, hey, the two teams that might be the biggest competitors, maybe the Mets, no experience. Same with San Diego. I like the Dodgers. Give me some Dodgers plus 360 to win the World Series. Great second half bet here. Great second half future for Major League Baseball. I think this is a really good bet. I think it's a really good future and a great chance that it's going to happen. But I will tell you, Mama Q is not happy. As a San Francisco Giant fan, she's not happy to hear that. No, sorry about that. We're going to make this a level two lock.”
The Atlanta Braves eliminated the Dodgers 4 games to 2 in the 2021 NLCS; Los Angeles did not win the World Series (Wikipedia, 2021 NLCS).
“BenOnline.ag line for this one. Milwaukee minus 4.5 versus Suns. Lee, go ahead and break this one down for us. All right, so I like Phoenix. There's a caveat for the series still. I like him a lot. But there are some things that have changed in the series. And number one, the series is in Milwaukee. And having played, I've talked to some NBA players, you know, had conversations once they got out of the game. And I asked them, you know, like in big games, you know, what's the difference? And NBA Finals is a different animal. So I think Milwaukee crowd is really into it. And the difference between making three-pointers is like maybe three or four inches. and when a guy's at home, a Phoenix player, he's got a little bit extra energy. He knows how to get to his spot. He just feels it when he shoots the ball. He knows what it is because he's done it thousands of times on that court. On an opponent's court, which is in a different conference, different feel, and also that opponent when they're playing at home, they play you a little bit hard. They run at you a little bit more Sometimes you a little bit closer to close out that three shot And I think that the difference I think Milwaukee being at home and the energy and just a little bit, those two, three, four inches is the difference between winning a game like Phoenix is doing at home by double digits or losing by double digits on the road. And so that's part of it. And And I think the biggest player that has an advantage in this series is Giannis. I mean, he's unstoppable. He gets to that spot in the lane. That's the one thing. Now, Chris Paul in the first couple games was almost unstoppable. Milwaukee's playing him a little bit better. He could still have a great game. But I think Giannis is the one player that is almost unstoppable in the series. So I'm going to pick Milwaukee. I'm going to lay the four-and-a-half points blowout special. I think they win this game by 10 to 12 points.”
MIL 109, PHX 103 — Milwaukee beat Phoenix 109-103 in Game 4 of the 2021 NBA Finals, a 6-point win that covered -4.5 (Wikipedia, sourced to official NBA game summary).
“BetOnline.ag line for Shohei Otani is plus 500 for him to hit a home run in tonight's game. What are your thoughts on this one? All right, so I like how they altered the rules so he can play both. He can come out whenever he wants. And we know he's going to start the game pitching and also hitting. So if you're trying to figure out whether this is a play on will he hit a home run in the game, I think I'm almost sure he's going to get two at bats. That's why they have him hitting first. He will lead off the game and then he'll probably bat a second time. I'd be very shocked if he batted around the third time. So I think it's tough. I think he put some pressure on himself. If you watch the first minute of the home run derby, I think that hurt him. Sometimes these guys, when they participate in the home run derby, their performance and the game just doesn't match up to their talent. talent so I'm going to say no I'm going to say no I'm going to bet 900 to win 100 that he's not going to hit a home run and it's probably only going to be in two at-bats usually these are low scoring games and might be you know a little more concerned with his pitching in the first round doesn't want to embarrass himself so he's going to be he's going to be up first because the National League is the home team here so I'm going to say no he's not going to show hey Oton he's not going to hit home run in the All-Star game.”
Shohei Ohtani did not hit a home run in the 2021 All-Star Game; home runs came from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Mike Zunino, and J.T. Realmuto (Wikipedia, 2021 MLB All-Star Game box score). (Ohtani: 0 HR)
“There's 73 games left in the baseball regular season once the All-Star break is over. So this is going to be one we'll say, give me one more. How about this? The over-under on Shohei Itani to hit home runs in the last 73 games. 28 home runs and 72 RBI left in the season. That's the betonline.ag line. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so everything's going right for him. He got into a groove about a week, 10 days ago. He's hitting a home run either every day or a couple of days and every other day. But, you know, that's with everything going right in the first half. I think they're going to be out of contention within a month, 45 days. This is a team that's 45 and 44. I just don't see a lot of talent on this team. And I'm going to say no. All he needs is one injury. He misses a week or two. It's going to be almost impossible for him to continue at this pace. So I'm going to say he's not going to hit that many home runs. He's not going to have 70 RBIs. So it's been a great story. But rarely did the second-half numbers match up with the first-half numbers. So I'm going with the under both on both futures play there.”
Ohtani had 33 home runs at the All-Star break and finished the season with 46, so he hit 13 home runs in the final 73 games, staying under 28 (StatMuse break split; Wikipedia season total). (Rest of season: 13 HR (33 at break, 46 final))
“There's 73 games left in the baseball regular season once the All-Star break is over. So this is going to be one we'll say, give me one more. How about this? The over-under on Shohei Itani to hit home runs in the last 73 games. 28 home runs and 72 RBI left in the season. That's the betonline.ag line. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so everything's going right for him. He got into a groove about a week, 10 days ago. He's hitting a home run either every day or a couple of days and every other day. But, you know, that's with everything going right in the first half. I think they're going to be out of contention within a month, 45 days. This is a team that's 45 and 44. I just don't see a lot of talent on this team. And I'm going to say no. All he needs is one injury. He misses a week or two. It's going to be almost impossible for him to continue at this pace. So I'm going to say he's not going to hit that many home runs. He's not going to have 70 RBIs. So it's been a great story. But rarely did the second-half numbers match up with the first-half numbers. So I'm going with the under both on both futures play there.”
Ohtani had 70 RBI at the All-Star break and finished the season with 100, so he drove in 30 runs in the final 73 games, staying under 72 (StatMuse break split; Wikipedia season total). (Rest of season: 30 RBI (70 at break, 100 final))
“This is one of those that I really, really like, Lee. National League, first five innings, money line, minus 115 versus American League in the All-Star Game tonight. That is the betonline.ag line. Again, National League, first five innings, money line, minus 115 versus the AL. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so we've got Max Scherzer and Shohei Otani to start tonight. I'm not putting a ton of stock into it, but I think it's worth pointing out that all the spotlight on Otani last night could have gotten to him a little bit. I mentioned that. He only had three homers in the first minute of the home run derby round, and you could tell he got ahead of himself just a little bit. Dave Martinez, the NL manager, already said he's starting Max Scherzer, and this is, one, because of his competitive nature here and everything from string training here to the All-Star game to postseason. Scherzer is a guy that likes to come out likes to make a statement in these games I just see here the NL team familiarity with Coors Field It such a unique field that it can be really tough to field and also pitch there So I think they'll have an advantage here. Scherzer might not last more than one to two innings, but the NL has so much elite contact and speed at the top of the lineup. It's so important to get that first run. Very rarely do you see teams come back after they're down in the All-Star game. They've been low-scoring games here. And I think the NL has that speed. And I think that Martinez is going to take this seriously. They've lost seven straight. So I wouldn't be shocked if someone gets on the first batter. If they get on for the NL, they only have some stealing or hit and run. So I think it's going to cause Otani some problems early in the game. if someone gets on for the first inning or two from the NL. So let's leave the bullpens out of this one here. Let's make you happy here, Q. I'm going to go here. National League, first five innings minus 115.”
AL 4, NL 1 — The American League led the National League 4-1 through five innings of the 2021 All-Star Game (Wikipedia box score).
“We're going to roll with the lock of the day here. The Major League Baseball All-Star Game. Money line, National League money line, minus 115 versus the AL. It's the same line, Lee. What's your thoughts on this one? Okay, so what you have to understand is why is this line the way it is? The All-Star game is usually a low-scoring game, but the National League is the home team here. The familiarity here with the stadium and how to play there is important. Last at bat might be the most important thing here also, so that's an advantage. And also motivation, losing seven straight. I just think the NL and Dave Martinez are going to play to win this game. So I've got them to win the first five games and also the closers. Usually these guys haven't seen these guys much, if at all. So I think we're going to see something, you know, like at most a 5-4 game. But I think we're going to see more likely a 4-3 or 3-2 game here. And I think the speed is going to be the difference also here for the National League. They have a lot of elite speed. And I think they're going to be able to scratch out some runs here. So also some great power, a little bit more maybe than the American League. I'm going with the National League minus 115 to win the game. Level two lock.”
AL 5, NL 2 — The American League beat the National League 5-2 in the 2021 All-Star Game (Wikipedia box score).
“Break it down for us. Give us the betonline.ag line for some of these guys in the Home Run Derby contest, and what direction do you think they'll go? Okay, so I agree with you, and we usually agree a lot. I like the old style. Everyone advances and starts off in the top half go to the next round. I think that's the proper way to do it, but I still enjoy it. It's like the hot dog eating contest, two of the things I always do during the summer. Usually in these home run derbies, bettors like to make at least a small play on the hometown favorite, like a Trevor Story tonight. But a matchup between Story and Gallo in the first round is why I like Gallo here even more, because he gets to eliminate the guy in the first round and move on quickly. Story, not much of a contender here. He's only got 11 home runs on the year, which is 91st in Major League Baseball. I understand the league wanting a home crowd guy in here, but he's not going to be much of a competitor in my opinion. So Gallo's opportunity to get that fan favorite out of the way early is big. And then I really think it comes down to a matchup between the top three guys, Alonzo, Otani, and Gallo. So Otani has not hit batting practice all season long. A lot of people don't realize that. If there's anything like batting practice for him, it's going to be this derby. So what he has done this year during the season has been fantastic, but not having any batting practice all season long shouldn't help here. Gallo also beat out Otani in average launch angle, and average exit velocity. A left-handed hitter has won the last two home run derbies as well. And just by the pure fatigue it can cause on a player's body, I think this favors Gallo. He's 6'5", 250. He even bigger than Alonzo who won it here And Alonzo winning back derbies is very tough and Alonzo won the last one back in 2019 I also think the layout of Coors Field certainly helps left-handed hitters here more than righties. Joey Gallo also made the All-Star game, but he made it as a reserve. Otani could be out there to pitch and also hit in the game. In fact, I'm going to not guess. I'm going to even probably bet it if there's a prop on Betonline that he does both. I think it's that big for the fans. So I think they're going to make it happen. So that should be his focus here rather than the Derby. Gallo's in Denver for one thing, and that one thing is the Derby. And if we're discussing the mental approach here, Gallo certainly has his focus on one thing. And one other thing to note, Gallo Otani is that Gallo has 23 plate appearances to Otani 6 at Coors Field. And he has the experience there. And he also has the numbers to back it up, I think. And he takes home the crown here this year. So Joey Gallo plus 375, level one lock.”
Pete Alonso won the 2021 Home Run Derby over Trey Mancini 23-22 in the final; Joey Gallo was eliminated in the first round by Trevor Story, 20-19 (Wikipedia).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Lee is a tie. Bam, bam, Tui Vasa, minus 135. Greg Hardy, a.k.a. the Prince of War, the take back is plus 115. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so let's be honest. Hardy, he's not a good guy. Just look up what he's done to women. He has fought a bunch of tomato cans. His first couple fighters, I mean, they basically did everything they could because they knew he wasn't ready to fight anyone decent at all. And he fought some tomato cans. Alan Crowder, not Chai Crowder, Alan Crowder. Dmitry Smolikov, Juan Adams, Ben Sochi. I mean, the list goes on and on. He finally fought, you know, someone decent in his last fight, Marcin Tauri. And he actually looked decent for the first round. He actually won the first round, but he has no gas tank. He got grounded and pounded in the second round and lost. Now he's going to fight a better fighter in Tuivasa who is more skilled than Hardy. And so people think that this is going to be an all-out brawl. I don't. I think Tui Vasa is going to kick him in the first round and take out his legs. And then by the second round, Hardy's not going to be able to walk. He just didn't have a defense. You can't just all of a sudden come into doing this in your mid to late 20s. So, Bam Bam here. Blowout special here. Minus 135. This is easy money. Karma is going to be taking place the next couple fights for Greg Hardy. He got grounded and pounded the last fight I think this is the time that Tuivas is going to get him down and he going to make a fool out of him and he going to submit him Blowout special number one Tai Tuivasa”
Tai Tuivasa defeated Greg Hardy by first-round KO (punches) at 1:07 at UFC 264 (Wikipedia, sourced to official UFC result). (Tuivasa def. Hardy, KO (punches) R1 1:07)
“BetOnline.ag. Wonderboy minus 157 versus Burns. Take back for him. It's plus 137. Break this one down for us. Okay, so the public is going to see this line and say, Gilbert Burns is a big underdog to a guy that he might be better than. And he almost, he came that close to knocking out Kamaru Usman. I mean, he hit Usman with a couple punches that he was close. Just one more with a follow-up. He's the new champion. But sometimes a guy gets that close, and he's just not the same fighter afterwards. Wonder Boy has to reach advantage here. He's a smart fighter. He dishes out 4.2 strikes per minute. He absorbs only 2.8. He has a karate stance. He does orthodox, and also he fights as a southpaw. He's slippery here. And coming on, his last couple wins against Vicente Luque and also Jeff Neal, he looked impressive. Before that, he had beaten Jorge Masvidal. So I don't know if Thompson's ever going to win a title, but I think Burns, I just him losing that title to Hoosman. I just think it destroyed him here. Ball out special number two, Stephen Wonderboy Thompson minus the 157 over Gilbert Burns.”
Gilbert Burns defeated Stephen Thompson by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC 264 (Wikipedia, sourced to official UFC result). (Burns def. Thompson, unanimous decision (29-28 x3))
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Going to roll with the Braves versus Marlins Under 7 runs minus 105 Break it down for us Lee All right so I talked a lot about how the foreign substance crackdown impacted pitchers this year But I also talked a lot about pitchers who have turned a corner since Major League Baseball sent out the new rules. Charlie Morton is a perfect example. He is getting every bit of the bad luck possible in the first couple months. and then since the start of June, he has just a .334 ERA with a .179 batting average against him in six starts. He's still not getting the run support he deserves, in my opinion, but he has finally settled into this rotation well for Atlanta. The problem here is Atlanta still can't hit the ball on the road. They're 10th in the majors in runs per game, but they dropped to 21st on the road. They're facing a Marlins team that still can't score much. People will be all excited and will say, oh, well, they took the first three games in a four set against the Dodgers here. But it wasn't because of their offense. So they caught the Dodgers starting rotation at the right time. One of the pitchers' battle was suspended and they didn't have to face the top couple pitchers here. So I just think we're going to see another 3-2, 3-1 ball game here. When a number is this low, it's usually for a reason. Under 7.5, minus 105, level one lock, Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins.”
ATL 5, MIA 0 — Atlanta beat Miami 5-0; the 5 combined runs stayed under 7.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“We're going to roll with this one, betonline.ag line. Going to roll Tigers first five innings money line, plus 110 versus the Twins. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, Tariq Skubal. Nice. is in the running for most improved players. Here's the picture for Detroit. Most people aren't even aware of this guy. Most people can't pronounce his name, but I've watched him quite a bit this year. He's dropped his ERA from 563 to 435, and all of his underlying numbers have drastically improved this year compared to last. He's actually incorporated his slider and a new changeup into his arsenal, and he has really just worked on it and it's worked for him. The Tigers were a horrible team last year, horrible, horrible to start the year, but they've actually won the last three road starts. If you look at their record, a little surprising. They're itching up close to 500. They actually have beaten a couple of playoff contenders in this road stretch. And this is, though, more about Jay Ahab, who has been absolutely awful for Minnesota. He's a 6.09 ERA in the season, 21 earned runs, and eight home runs allowed in the last just 24 innings. It's ERA and other advanced numbers like barrel percentage and expected slugging percentage against or at a career low this year. and he's facing a Tigers lineup that is actually hitting pretty well here against lefties this year with Detroit being 14-12 against Southpaw so far in 2021. They've won their last four against lefties, and they're getting the Twins here in a tough spot after a disappointing series with the White Sox. I'll leave that abysmal Tigers bullpen out of this one and bet on Scooball here. here. And this Tigers team is playing some good baseball, by the way. They're 31 and 23 in the last 24 games, and they've won their last five series overall. An interesting team to watch in the second half. We're going with the Detroit Tigers here. First five, Moneyline plus 110. Wrong team favorite.”
Detroit led Minnesota 2-1 through five innings (2 runs in the 4th) before the Twins rallied late to win 5-3; the first-five moneyline cashed for the Tigers (ESPN box score/linescore). (F5: DET 2, MIN 1)
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Aldana, minus 127 with the tape pack for Foxy Kunikaya, plus 107. Break this one down for us, Lee. Well, you probably said it better than I could. Yes. The UFC has got some really tough names. I mean, you've got guys from some countries that are really, really tough to pronounce these names. So Aldana here had a huge, I mean, a huge upset in one of her last fights against Vieira. I mean, it was an absolute knockout, but she actually has no real knockout power. She's also not a grappler, only two takedowns in her career, so no ground game. She dishes out five and a half strikes per minute and takes six strikes here per minute back. So she absorbs more punishment than she dishes out here. Kuniskaya here actually beat Vieira after Vieira lost to Aldana, dominated the entire fight here. I just think she's busier. I think she's going to take Aldana down here. She throws a lot of blows when she's on her feet and also knows how to submit and also just stay on top of her opponent and get the job done here. So may not be a knockout here, but Kouroskaya plus 107 here, wrong fighter favorite. Think it's going to be a nice, easy winner for us here.”
Irene Aldana stopped Yana Kunitskaya by first-round TKO (punches) at 4:35 at UFC 264 on July 10, 2021; Kunitskaya moneyline busts (Wikipedia UFC 264). (Aldana def. Kunitskaya, TKO R1 4:35)
“All right. So not too often do you see opportunities like this come around right after the Stanley Cup for the next year But it the first day in the offseason So the Leafs I think are still I mean it was a devastating series loss to the Canadians in the first round I think it still stings here for the fans up north and for the players and with a lot of betters. But let's not forget that this Leafs team put up the fifth most points in the NHL this season without fans in the arena, without being able to travel outside of Canada, and without the guy that was their starting goalie for the last few years due to injury. So they know they need to make some changes in the offseason. They have to get bigger, stronger, more physical. But let's be honest. Qualities like that don't really make a huge impact on a team's success until the postseason. when a team like Toronto is up near the top of the league standings and points and has their odds down to, let's say, plus 700 or plus 600 to win the Cup. This is still a team here with a leading goal scorer in the NHL from the past season, statistically the number one goalie in the NHL during the second half of the season and several other elite scorers here. So their offseason probably won't be very flashy, but they've got a very helpful Kyle Dubas here. Their general manager is one of the best in the NHL, maximizing value in his trades. And I'm sure he's going to acquire at least one or two key pieces in the off season. We saw what happened with Tampa Bay. They were one of the best in the league a few years ago, and they got swept by Columbus in the first round. Sometimes it takes an embarrassing, heartbreaking loss in the playoffs to propel a team to the next level. This is a very cheap price to pay on a team that will likely be the president's here in the president's trophy race for the best record in the regular season next year. I'm going with the Toronto Maple Leafs here, plus $1,400 for every $100 you wager. You win $1,400 to win the Stanley Cup in 2022.”
Tampa Bay Lightning eliminated Toronto in a first-round Game 7 of the 2022 playoffs; the Colorado Avalanche won the 2022 Stanley Cup, not Toronto (Wikipedia).
“BetOnline.ag, line for this one, we're going to roll. Seattle, first five innings, baby. Love it. First five innings, money line, plus 105 versus the Yankees. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so this bet is about the wrong pitcher being favored. We've talked about UC Kikuchi quite a bit this year. He has struggled against the AOS so far in his career, but against everyone else, he's been pretty darn good. He has a .386 ERA at home this year. His last four starts, he's given up just three earned runs and almost 27 innings pitched. What has been his strength this year, though, is his ground ball rate. And a lot of people don't talk about it enough, but among 147 qualified pitchers, he ranks 12th in Major League Baseball in inducing ground balls at 54.8% of batted balls. And what do we say about the Yankees lineup? They are extremely reliant on hitting home runs. Domingo Herman, here's a guy for the Yankees, and he's going to face a Mariners lineup that should be licking their chops heading into this matchup. because he struggled in the last few starts. He's given up 18 runs on 25 hits in the last 15 innings, which has spanned over four starts. And he has not lasted beyond the fourth inning in any of those starts. He's 1-4 with a 5.56 ERA against teams with winning records this year. And, yes, believe it or not, Seattle has a winning record so far. They may not end up with a winning record by the end of the year, but I think they're going to hover above 500 for a little bit longer. So he's been inconsistent this year, and it should cost him in this one, especially against a very underrated pitcher in Kikuchi. Let's go with Seattle here. Mariners, first five innings, money line, wrong team favorite.”
The Yankees led Seattle 5-1 through five innings (3 runs in the 1st, 2 in the 2nd) en route to a 5-4 win, so the Mariners first-five moneyline busts (ESPN box score/linescore). (F5: NYY 5, SEA 1)
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Blue Jays, minus one and a half runs, minus 135 versus the Orioles. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right. Safe to say that Matt Harvey has fallen back to earth after a strong start. In his last 10 starts, check out these numbers. He's a horrific 0-7 with a 10-85 ERA. Why he is still in the starting rotation, I will never know. He has a .364 batting average here against him in that span, which has been among, obviously, the worst in Major League Baseball. He's given up four or more earned runs in seven of those starts as well. I think the fatigue of a full season has caught up to him after last year. And whatever he changed in his delivery, I just think the hitters have picked up on. So his counterpart, Hinge and Rye, he's in a real interesting spot here. But I think it actually helps him. So he's actually been better on the road this season than at home, which is in Buffalo now. So the Jays here stadium, for some reason, just seems to be better for hitters. He's one and two with an abysmal 685 ERA on the road. He has a 335 ERA here on the road. And I just think he just looks more comfortable away from home He actually faced Baltimore twice last three starts and he was dominant in Baltimore but struggled against them at home I think this is a good spot for him to get comfortable for whatever reason here away from Buffalo, and I don't see any way that the Orioles offense can keep up with Toronto. So I'm going with Toronto here, minus the one-and-a-half runs, minus 135, blowout special.”
TOR 10, BAL 2 — Toronto beat Baltimore 10-2, an 8-run margin that clears the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Tampa Bay money line, minus 226 versus the Canadians. Break this one down, Lee. What's your thoughts? So I smoked and actually laughed a little out loud when I saw that the Tampa mayor before game four sent, she hoped that the lightning threw game four so they could win and celebrate back home in Tampa after game five. So, of course, they're not going to throw the game, but, you know, that was one of those games where Tampa was the better team. Every single bounce of the puck off, you know, the boards or it just, it was just strange. I mean, it was just whatever Tampa could do. They would have had to have had like almost an extra player on the ice They had in fact one point They had at the end of the game and also into overtime a one advantage They had a four-minute power play and still couldn't score. Just one of those days, just couldn't get it done. You're going to see a gentleman sweep here tonight. It should have been a sweep, but it'll be a gentleman sweep here. So they'll dominate on the power play. I just think their goaltending is even superior. And I just think that just different level of skaters, different level of offensive players here. So don't normally lay this kind of lumber here, but it's going to be a level three lock. The series is over tonight. Get ready for the celebration. Tampa Bay Lightning here. Money line minus 226.”
TB 1, MTL 0 — Tampa Bay beat Montreal 1-0 on Ross Colton's goal in Game 5 to clinch the 2021 Stanley Cup; moneyline cashed (Wikipedia).
“LSU minus five at UCLA. LSU minus five at UCLA. That's the betonline.ag line for our futures week one in football. What are your thoughts on this one? All right. So during the summer, I spent like four or five hours a day studying college football teams and the NFL. And what that entails is I will watch one game where everything went right for that team, probably in a conference game against a tough opponent, a game that came down to the wire, a game usually within a touchdown either way. usually in conference, obviously, this past year, because almost all the games were conference games, and a game where everything went wrong. And I will do that. I'll watch a minimum of three games. Obviously, eventually, a lot of games overlap, taking notes and studying and watching also every spring game that's available. I can get my hands on probably about 118, 120 of the 130 teams. So there's a week one game between UCLA and LSU, and a lot of things, a lot of layers here has me going big on UCLA. It might be my biggest week one game if things play out and stay this way. So UCLA actually plays the week before August 28th at home against Hawaii. Get to start a week earlier than LSU. Get a game under their belt. How about this? With a lot of guys granted next year of eligibility, you'll get more returnees than normal. But I think UCLA is going to be first or second in the country. They have 10 returning starters on offense, 10 on defense, and run a lot of option offense. Mobile quarterback and Dorian Thompson Robinson like him a lot. 12 touchdowns, four interceptions last year. Also, he ran for over 300 yards at over 5.5 yards per carry. But here's what's crazy about this team. So they were 3-4 last year. Didn't go to a bowl game. But how about this? So they beat the teams that they should have beaten. California, 34-10. Beat Arizona, 27-10. And Arizona State, on the road, 25-18. But listen to their losses, how close they were in our break. They lose at Colorado 48-42. Colorado was much better than people expected. They lost at Oregon as a 17-point underdog, 38-35. Lost at home against USC, who was playing really well at the time lately, or 43-38, and lost to Stanford in two overtimes, 48-47. So they could have easily been 6-1, 7-0. They run the ball. They run an option. And what is LSU? You think of LSU and you think of great defense, but not really anymore. Now, they do have nine returnees on defense, but they weren't that good on defense. I mean, this is a team on defense last year that, quite frankly, couldn't stop the run. Going back to five years beforehand, every single year, under four yards per carry. Last year, they allowed 4.9 yards per carry. They might end up having two top picks. I'm talking about top picks in the first round, first 10, 15 picks on defense, but they're in the defensive backfield. So it's a matter of matchup. Never loved Ed Ogeron as a coach. I think he caught lightning a bottle one year. He had the perfect team, incredible talent, an amazing quarterback, and Joe Burrow and some really good defenders and some great receivers. So I'm picking UCLA plus five. Wrong team is favored.”
UCLA 38, LSU 27 — UCLA beat No. 16 LSU 38-27 at the Rose Bowl in the 2021 season opener, covering +5 (Wikipedia UCLA football).
“BetOnline line for this one The Giants minus 133 versus the Cardinals Thoughts on this one Lee Okay before I give out the game what your thoughts on the new jerseys that they going to wear You know, I kind of like them. As a Bay dude, I kind of like them representing with the Bay Bridge and everything. I think it looks kind of cool. The colors are obviously different, but I think it's kind of cool. I hated them. I'm a Bay guy, though. Bay guys like stuff like that. I know you are, and I like the idea. The idea of the fog rolling in, the idea of the bay brick, the idea of the color. I just didn't think it came across right. I mean, there's some people like the Miami Marlins throwback uniform. I think they're awful. I think they're cartoonish. So there's a couple that are good, and those are the two worst that I thought. So usually you and I are on the same page. We are on opposite sides of the spectrum. And I'm open to anything. I'm open to new stuff, but to me it wasn't a hit. So tonight, though, I think the Giants will be a hit. Johnny Cueto has been in all-star form this year in certain situations only. So you don't think of him as being great, but he's great at Oracle Park. He's 5-2 with just a 281 ERA, and he has done so against some pretty strong offenses, including Cincinnati, the Angels when they were healthy, and the Athletics. So he's getting a Cardinals lineup that just can't hit now. The Cardinals just 28th in batting average, 28th in runs scored in the last 30 days, and their bullpen has also fallen a bit, which is why they're down to second worst in the NL Central. So not where they're used to being. Usually they're fighting for the lead. We've also talked about Adam Wainwright's home and road splits several times this year, and this still holds true. He has a 255 ERA at Bush Stadium, but here it jumps to a 535 ERA away from home, and he's facing a Giants lineup that has been much better at home as well. And I made this game closer to 150-155 here. Giants should take care of business against a struggling Cardinals team. I'm going with San Francisco Giants money line blowout special.”
STL 6, SF 5 — St. Louis beat San Francisco 6-5 (Adam Wainwright's fourth straight win); Giants moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Cubs and Phillies over 9.5 runs, minus 107. Break this one down for us. Okay, before I break down this game, I'm going to mention what we're going to do next week. So next week, there's no games Monday and Wednesday. There's the All-Star game Tuesday, and there's one Major League game on Thursday. So what we're going to do is do something different. And I know there's a lot of people listen to the show and the podcast every single day religiously, and I appreciate it. So if you have a question, you know, we're not a live show. We tape the podcast in the mornings If you had a question let say about a certain team or a certain player or a certain coach or a gambling question you want answered you know do you play parlays When do you want to play certain situations, teams and coaches? Just go on Twitter and tag at your boy Q or me at Paramount Sports and submit the question starting today all the way through Sunday. And we'll take any question you have. And we're going to try to answer 10 to 12 questions a day. So try to do something different. I know some people that are just starting in gambling. Some people have been doing it for many years, but I'm always learning something. So I think I can add some things to some people. I think it will help them out as far as gambling. I'm looking at, like I said, I'm studying all these college and pro teams throughout the summer. Started about three weeks ago. And, hey, if there's a team you like, you want their prognosis, what they're going to do over under wins, I'll be more than happy to give it to you. Some games that might be trap games. So willing to help you out. Just wanted to mention that before we get to the lock of the day. So, lock of the day, the wind has a really big impact on where books set their totals at Wrigley Field. If the wind was blowing in for this one, we'd see a total probably closer to eight or seven and a half. But with the blowing out, these two guys, I could see really struggling on the mound. Aaron Knowles, roadie RAs up to 532 on the season, eight of his 14 home runs allowed, have come in just 47 innings on the road. The same thing goes for Jake Arrieta, too. He has had a really rough year for Chicago. He got pulled from his last start before even getting through the second inning against a horrible Milwaukee team, and he's given up five home runs at home this year in just 28 innings pitch. So these two guys with very low ground ball rates that rely heavily on fly balls to get some outs are in trouble. The Wrigley win should make things tough for them. Both teams' bullpens have really struggled late as well, and they might not get much as far as from the starters in terms of length. So I think one of these lineups could hit nine by themselves here. I know you like the first five innings play, but this total could be over by the fifth or sixth inning here. Level two lock, over nine and a half runs here, Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies.”
PHI 15, CHC 10 — Philadelphia beat the Cubs 15-10 (25 combined runs), clearing the 9.5 total (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll White Sox money line, minus 111 versus the Twins. Go ahead and break this one down for us. Okay so Q the line certainly seems low for the White Sox This is a team that is light years ahead of the Twins right now Dylan Cease spin rates and numbers have regressed a bit since the crackdown but we talked about it a few weeks ago, and he's up to 14-2 with a .299 ERA against losing teams, and he's 2-12 with a .688 earned run average against winning teams. He also gave up seven of his 13 earned runs since the crackdown, in one of his last five starts. But on the other side, you've got Bailey over, and he goes for the twins here. And I really like what the White Sox are getting. They'll see him now for a third time this season. Third time is usually the charm. I think they're going to hit him really hard. This is usually a massive advantage for a lineup like theirs. He's had three starts at home, and he's given up 10 run runs over 13 innings there so far. So I'm not saying that Cease is going to light it up, but certainly don't expect over to be much better against such a strong lineup here. Chicago White Sox, Moneyline, blowout special.”
MIN 8, CHW 5 — Minnesota beat Chicago 8-5 behind Bailey Ober's scoreless start and two Max Kepler homers; White Sox moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. We're going to roll the over 8.5 runs, minus 121. That's for the total. Break this one down for us. Lee, what's your thoughts? Well, Rich Hill took the MLB substance memo very seriously. And it's showing in his pitching performances. He has a 566 ERA in his last four starts. and he's made it through five innings just once in his last six starts. In fact, he's given up six homers in his last 20 innings as well. He's three and two at home this year. But that has largely been due to his offense giving him almost six runs of run support in every start. So it's not like he has been some all-star at home. Logan Allen has to start here for Cleveland, and he probably wouldn't start for the Indians if they didn't have so many injuries. He's 1-5 with an 838 ERA this year. His only start on the road was a quick one because he gave up five runs in two innings. Cleveland's bullpen has pitched a lot of innings recently. They pitched 15 innings in the last three games, and they're upwards of the most innings pitched in Major League Baseball in this past month. I don think Allen is going to give them much length here So the pitching staff is not going to be in a good spot here I think we see something like a 5 game here going into the late innings I'm going way over the eight and a half total runs here in the Cleveland-Tampa Bay game. Level one lock over big time.”
TB 9, CLE 8 — Tampa Bay beat Cleveland 9-8 (17 combined runs), clearing the 8.5 total (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Lightning and Canadians money line, minus 157. Go ahead and break this one down for us. All right, so I thought this series would be a little bit closer. I really thought that each game was going to be like a one-goal game, but Tampa Bay has absolutely run away with this series. They're looking at potentially the first sweep in the Stanley Cup, And I looked this up since all the way back in 1998. Montreal was a great story, and they shocked a ton of people with their run to the cup here. But Carey Price just not playing well. I mean, he would have had to have stood on his head for them to win this series. The penalty kill also has not looked the same as it looked earlier in the playoffs The team as a whole they just don look like they can keep up with Tampa Bay I know this is a potential cup clincher and Montreal has her backs against the wall, but let's be honest. Every game in the series should have been a desperation moment here for the Canadians and they just don't get it done. I think Tampa Bay runs away with game four. They get the clincher and I don't think it's going to be even particularly really close level two lock Tampa Bay lightning money line minus one 57.”
MTL 3, TB 2 — Montreal beat Tampa Bay 3-2 in overtime on Josh Anderson's goal in Game 4 of the 2021 Stanley Cup Final; Lightning moneyline busts (Wikipedia).
“BetOnline.ag. Line for this one. We're going to roll the Braves' first five innings, minus 110 versus the Marlins. Give us the info. Break this one down for us Lee All right so Drew Smiley looked like one of the worst free agents signing to the season two months ago for Atlanta He had an ERA above five to start the season He couldn't pitch at home. He gave up 13 home runs through the first 42 innings of the season. But all of a sudden, he's one of the most profitable pitchers in Major League Baseball on the first five. He's 8-3-2, first five money line this season. and he went 3-0 in the month of June with just a 284-year-old in 25 innings. So the Braves also beat Jacob DeGrom last night without Ronald Acuna in the lineup, and they hit DeGrom pretty well in the first couple innings. I think that could be pretty uplifting for this team and could start to turn around. I said it maybe a week and a half, two weeks. I still think this team's going to win the division. And Pablo Lopez goes for the Marlins here. I do think he's a really good pitcher, but for some reason, he doesn't fare well against Atlanta. So, as you know, I live here in Miami. I've watched him pitch against the Braves, and I don't know what it is. His location sometimes is a little off. He's a little wild, and they just hit him hard. His 566 ERA against Atlanta is his highest against any opponent so far in his career. He's also in a tough travel spot here. and we're going to break this down into both games. He was supposed to pitch in Philly last night on his usual five days of rest, but the game was rained out. So Miami had to fly down to Atlanta, and Lopez has to pitch now on six days of rest for the first time this season. You know, pitchers mentally, you know, it's such a long, arduous task getting ready for a start. You know, these guys probably eat a certain meal. They do so many things to get ready, searching, stretching. things to get ready. And we talked about the Braves bullpen problems, which hurt them again last night before the walk-off. So let's stick to the first five innings here. I think Drew Smiley should be able to battle with Lopez and come out on top here. So we're going level one lock, Atlanta Braves, first five innings, money line minus 110.”
Atlanta led Miami 1-0 through five innings (Braves' only run scored in the 1st) and won 1-0 overall, so the first-five moneyline cashed (ESPN box score/linescore). (F5: ATL 1, MIA 0)
“So betonline.ag, we're going to roll with Bruno Assis, minus 155, with the take back being plus 125, versus Shane O'Shea. Break this one down for us, Lee. So Assis is much better on the ground. I mean, it's not even close. He can win with a lot of different ways once he gets you down. He's won two of his last three fights by an armbar. He can win. He does this triangle choke. He can submit guys. Also, he's won some different ways. He just, on the ground, he is far superior to O'Shea. O'Shea has only fought five professional fights, and I think that's going to hurt him. I just don't think he's on the level of Assis. Assis is one of these guys, by fighting 15 pro fights, smart. I've seen him even in trouble find a way to win. So some of the guys that O'Shea has fought, listen to some of these records. I mean 0 1 0 I mean he fought five fighters even in his amateur career that were 0 So it was their first fight So O'Shea also hasn't fought in over seven months, and I think that's going to hurt him. So Assis has been the busier fighter. So O'Shea's going to try to win by just knockout and ground and pound. He just stands up too straight. And I think Assis is going to take him down early and often. Might be an arm bar. Might be a leg lock. Might be some other type of submission. But he'll get the job done here. Minus 155. Level 2 lock. Bruno Assis.”
Bruno Assis defeated Shane O'Shea at Titan FC 70 on July 2, 2021 in Miami to win the inaugural middleweight title, so the moneyline cashed (Wikipedia Titan FC).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll Angels versus Orioles over 9.5 runs, minus 110. Give us the details on this one, Lee. So Griffin Canning goes for the Angels here against Kagan again for Baltimore. I guess you could say Canning has been the Angels' best starting pitcher outside of Otani. But that isn't saying much. It's like going when you go to a beauty contest, some of these local cities and second place wouldn't probably get into the contest of a major contest. So I've never heard someone talk about the second best pitcher for the Angels. If they have one ace, it's one ace and the rest of them. And that the way I see it here So his ERA is sitting just a little below five and he averaging just five innings per start since the start of June He facing an Orioles lineup that might be in a good spot here as well. So they just swept the Astros in Houston out of nowhere and they got a night off to travel to LA for this one while the Angels flew back from New York. Canning was supposed to pitch yesterday, just like our first game before LA's game was postponed here. So he's in another weird travel situation. For Ken, he's still looking for his first win of the season. He's 0-4 with a 7-11 ERA, but it hasn't been pretty. In his last three starts, he's given up 19 earned runs in 14 innings, even worse than a 7-11 ERA. That ERA amounts to a 12-21, and he's facing the Angels lineup that is up in the top 10 in Major League Baseball and batting average against left-handed pitchers. But what sticks out to me about this game is the bullpens. I can't tell you how many Angels games I've seen this year where the bullpen pushed the game over because they just couldn't get out of innings. In the last two weeks, the Angels and the Orioles bullpen ranked 27th and 29th in the ERA, respectively. That's why both are bad teams and losing teams and won't make the playoffs. And more importantly, both bullpens have pitched over 17 innings in the last three games each. This is a recipe for a wild game here. I think this one ends up 8-6, 9-7, maybe even 12-10. We're going over nine and a half runs, minus 110 in the Baltimore-LA Angels game. Level three lock heading into the July 4th weekend.”
LAA 8, BAL 7 — Angels beat Orioles 8-7 (15 combined runs), clearing the 9.5 total (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Colorado plus 107 versus the Cardinals. Thoughts on this one? Yeah, so sometimes the splits tell you everything you need to know. I've talked about Adam Wainwright a few weeks ago since the new Bush Stadium opened up. He has a home run, just allowing big, big time hits and blowing up there. He has a home ERA of over 350 just once since 2013, and that came in injury short in 2018. But on the road, he has consistently carried an ERA on or above six for almost five years now. This year is no different. He has a 255 ERA at home, 631 ERA on the road. We all know that only one thing worse than pitching on the road is pitching on the road at Coors Field. The field is, frankly, the only reason the Rockies aren't the worst team in Major League Baseball this year. At home, they have a record of 28-16 with a plus 52 run differential. And on the road, 6-31 record with a minus 105 run differential. The other thing that the Rockies have going through is that they have somehow figured out how to pitch this year Colorado 4 at home versus a 5 ERA in the road Makes no sense at all, but with it here, they're 5-1 in the last six games as a home underdog. I think they make it 6-1 here against a badly struggling Cardinals offense. Rocking number one, Colorado Rockies, money line, plus 107.”
COL 5, STL 2 — Colorado Rockies beat St. Louis Cardinals 5-2 on Elias Diaz's walk-off homer; moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. We're going to roll Nationals plus 124 versus the Dodgers. Break this one down for us. So someone woke up Kyle Schwarber and the Washington Nationals a couple weeks ago. They must have found their favorite flavor of Bill Bars or something because Washington is 14-3 in the last 17 games, and they're doing it against some pretty darn good competition. They won three or four against the Mets, and then they just put up 19 runs in two games on the Rays. This series against the Dodgers is their big put-up or shut-up matchup, And I don't know if they have it for a three-game series, but I think they're in a good spot in Game 1. Dodgers just finished up a big weekend series with the Cubs and then the division rivals Giants, and then they have to fly all the way across country to Washington, D.C. for this matchup. Patrick Corbin will start for Washington, and I'm not sure if he has found his group yet or not. He's coming into this sport on a hot streak. He's given up just six earned runs in the last 20 innings pitched, and he has run up 20 strikeouts in just two walks. So a lot of those innings were against weak offenses, but he's facing a Dodgers team that just can't hit lefties. Over the last 30 days, L.A. ranks 25th in batting average and 28th in hits against lefties in the entire league. Maybe they find their groove here, but I don't see it against this Nationals lineup. we going to go with the Washington Nationals money line here wrong team favorite number two there it is right there”
LAD 6, WSH 2 — Los Angeles Dodgers beat Washington Nationals 6-2 behind Max Muncy's grand slam; Nationals moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So the betonline.ag line for this one would be Lance Lynn plus 600 to win that AL Cy Young. Break this one down. Give us your thoughts on it. All right. So the White Sox have three of the top six betting favorites for the AL Cy Young. Galata plus 4,000. Lance Lynn plus 600. And Carlton at plus 300. I think there is a good argument to be made that Lynn and Rodon should be switched here. If you look at a lot of his numbers in June and what his spin rates look like, some Major League Baseball crackdown on foreign substances, his game-by-game spin rates have drastically fallen off, and it has corresponded with a rise in his ERA. His five starts in June yielded just a 1-1 record with a 4.06 ERA, which is well above the season-long numbers. Then Rodon's spin rates have decreased even more. The other thing that I don't love about Rodon is that he hasn't pitched a full season in a very long time. He's having a great year, but I'm not going to bet on a guy to make all 26 or 27 starts that he's projected to make. The same thing goes here for Garrett Cole. We know his numbers and spin rates have dropped, and the Yankees continue to slide at a playoff competition. That's a factor. When you look at the Cy Young voting with Shane Bieber still injured, and these other guys battling with a crackdown. Lynn is the only one that has been able to sustain his spin rates. His June splits, they don't look great, but six of 11 earned runs in June came in just one start. And he's a guy that typically, if you look at his numbers, has his best month of the season in July and August. There's great value here. Bet a little, win a lot on Lance Lynn to win the AL Cy Young at plus 600.”
Robbie Ray of the Toronto Blue Jays won the 2021 AL Cy Young Award, not Lance Lynn, so the futures bet busts (Wikipedia MLB awards page).
“And so the BetOnline.ag line for Alabama, over under regular season wins is under 11 and a half minus 125. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so I wrote Alabama last year once they got to the playoffs. I thought they were going to win easy against Notre Dame and Ohio State, and they did. Everything worked out right. They faced a punchless Notre Dame team on offense. They gave up only 14 points and they faced Ohio State who the game before was out for revenge against Clemson and got it And quite frankly Ohio State just beat the Alabama offense Why? The Alabama offense had three of the top five Heisman voting guys, and any one of them you could make an argument should have won it. So now they've got to replace these guys. And everyone, the thinking is they just plug in these four and five stars and they just move on. you know what, this might be the year, and I think it will be the year, they use a game or two. Why do I say that? Well, they only have three returners on offense. They've got to replace a quarterback that had 41 touchdowns to just four interceptions. I don't think that can be implicated. They've got to replace two receivers that went in the top ten. They've got to replace a running back, and running backs rarely get chosen in the first round. And they have a new offensive coordinator. Hey, I think that O'Brien might eventually be okay at best, but you've got to replace Elaine Kiffin. You've got to replace Sarkeesian. These two guys were just a perfect fit, looking to get their careers back on track. We're great coordinators. And now Alabama is going to run here with Bill O'Brien. It might take him four or five games to get anything going here on offense against some teams that are going to be ready for them. Miami's going to throw the kitchen sink at them. Third week of the season, they've got to travel to Florida. Florida's really talented. Then they've got to go in the middle of the season to Texas A&M, which is a top five, top six team in the country. Then they've got to finish up this season at Auburn, where they've lost the last two times here. So I love the Alabama program, have a lot of talent here, but they're not winning all 12 regular season games here. I'm going to go with a level three lock on Alabama under the 11 and a half wins here, minus 125.”
Alabama went 11-1 in the 2021 regular season (12 games, only loss at Texas A&M), so Under 11.5 regular-season wins cashed (ESPN schedule). (Alabama regular season: 11 wins)
“The BetOnline.ag line for this one. Vanderbilt, minus 150 with a take back, plus 130 versus Mississippi State. What's your thoughts on this one, Lee? It is crazy to think all these great teams with Ron Polk when he was the coach in the 80s and 90s did not win a championship. I don't know if you realize this, but the team, the 85 team that didn't win, they had Will Palmeiro. They had, I mean, they had Palmeiro. They had Will Clark. They had Jeff Brantley and Bobby Thigpen on it. Four, I mean, you know, you're talking about guys that are almost Hall of Famers. You're talking about guys, all four were perennial all-stars for a number of years and did not win that year. So this is a big, big deal. If you look at the crowd, it's like 90-10, 95-5 in favor of Mississippi State. They travel. And last night's game wasn't a fluke. I mean, they got 13 runs. They pounded out 14 hits. They still left 14 runners on base. So a lot of traffic on the bases. in the game last night. So they scored all those runs with just two extra, I think with the aid of just two extra base hits, both doubles. Even their number nine hitter, this kid laying four, he had three hits on the night. So, I mean, their second baseman, he drove in four runs. So they are red hot right now. So tonight we get to see both aces. Kamar Rocker for Vanderbilt. Will Bednar for Mississippi State. Rocker, as everyone knows, top ten pick for sure. Might even be a top five pick. And then also Bednar is probably going to go towards the end of the first round. So, Rocker comes with a fastball, but sometimes a little bit inconsistent. Has trouble finding the strike zone. In the College World Series, Bednar, he beat, I think, the second best team in the College World Series, the Texas Longhorns. He struck out 15 Longhorns in that game, and Rocker struck out 11 against NC State in that elimination game, but that was against a depleted NC State roster. So actually, Rocker did face Mississippi State once this season. It was on April 23rd, but the game was in Nashville. He had a complete game, gave up just one earned run, eight strikeouts, but this setting is different. He's facing a hot team. I'm going to say for the first time ever, the underdog Mississippi State Bulldogs will be national champions in baseball. The fighting Dak Prescott's Dak Prescott, Cowboys quarterback, loud and proud Mississippi State alum. He was there in attendance. I'm sure he'll be there today. And that would be a heck of a story, man. And I mentioned it on Tuesday's show that I feel like a lot of the country is going for the underdog. A lot of the country is going for Mississippi State. And look, they're an underdog, but man, they're a heck of a team as well. That's why they're there. Oh, except for like the eight and nine hitters are all big, strong. They're driving the ball. So it should be a fun time. And wrong team favorite, Mississippi State Bulldogs. They win. They win it here tonight.”
Mississippi State 9, Vanderbilt 0 — Mississippi State beat Vanderbilt 9-0 in the championship game to win the 2021 College World Series; the Bulldogs' moneyline cashes (Wikipedia).
“BetOnline line for this one We're going to roll the Braves. First five innings, money line, minus one half run. What's your thoughts on this one, Lee? So the Braves and the Mets have some problems this year. After last night, the Braves now have eight losses this season when leading after the sixth inning. they were 27-0 when leading after six innings last year. At the 27-0, they already had six blown saves or leads. I mean, this is crazy. What does that tell you? It means that we probably should not trust the Braves' bullpen right now, but it has set up some really good first five-inning situations, and I think we have one here. With Atlanta's bullpen a concern, The Mets offense at the start of games has been their downfall. After last night, New York has scored just one run before the seventh inning in their last six games combined. That's a great sign here for Max Fried, who starts for Atlanta in this one. He's getting a Mets offense that can't keep going until late in the games, and he's starting to turn into the Max Fried of old. I've always been a big fan of his, and I think if you watch him right now, he is in a groove. He's given up just two earned runs in the last two home starts, and is starting to get his full arsenal pitches back. I think this is a good spot for the Braves to get off to a good start in the game, but we're not going to trust the Braves' bullpen here. We're going with the Atlanta Braves' first five innings minus a half a run, plus 100, blowout special.”
Atlanta led the Mets 13-2 through five innings en route to a 20-2 rout; the Braves' first-five -0.5 moneyline covers (ESPN box score). (F5: ATL 13, NYM 2)
“BetOnline line We going to roll the Canadiens and Tampa Bay over five goals minus 113 What are your thoughts on this one? With the way game one played out the other night, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of the public on the under in this one. Montreal's own goal came on a wild double deflection that went in the net off two Tampa Bay defenders. The Lightning scored a goal that was batted into the Montreal net by one of the Canadiens' own defenders. And then the Lightning scored two garbage time goals, both of which were through screens in front of the net to push the total over. But don't kid yourself. This is how Tampa scores in the playoffs. Watched them for many years now. They did it in the conference finals against the Islanders. They did it last year against the Stars in the Cup final. The offense is not just some power play dependent group that relies on skill alone. They score up and down the lineup. Tampa Bay also blocked 15 shots in game one and might have lost one of their best defensive forwards in Alex Killorn for game two here. The desperation for Montreal to go back in a tied series and Tampa's game plan to beat Carey Price should actually continue to produce goals here. I think we see a 2-2 game going into the third period or even 3-3 for a push at least. And I wouldn't be surprised if we see another two or three goals in the third period. So I'm going to play the over five goals minus 113 level two lock.”
TB 3, MTL 1 — Tampa Bay beat Montreal 3-1 in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final; 4 combined goals stayed under the Over 5 total (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll the Reds money line plus 136 versus the Padres. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, well, I don't think it's getting enough coverage here how much Blake Snell has struggled this year, particularly on the road. So he has a 3-3 record with a 529 ERA. But check out these home and road splits. These might be the biggest I've seen in a long time. At home, he has a 143 ERA and a 7 starts. But on the road, he has a 1036 ERA and 8 starts. That is one of the worst home and road splits I've seen this far this season, maybe in a number of years. The Padres are also 0-8 in all of their eight road starts this year where he started a game. On top of that, he has made it through the fifth inning only one time this year on the road. I don't know what he's doing on the road. He didn't bring his little comfort pillow or something. Something's going on. So in 28 innings on the road, he's given up 24 walks, which is fourth most in the majors. That is not a recipe for success in Cincinnati against a Reds offense that is pretty much unstoppable, a great American ballpark. If he can't run late into this game, I don't know what the Padres do here. Their bullpen has also pitched 16 innings in their last three games as well, and the Reds were just swept in San Diego last week. So I think there's a bit of a revenge spot here in addition to Snell's struggles. I would expect this line to be closer to pick them or 110. Wrong team favorite here. Go big or go home here on Cincinnati. Money line plus 136. Wrong team favorite.”
SD 5, CIN 4 — Padres beat Cincinnati 5-4; the Reds' moneyline busts (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line. Indians minus one and a half runs, minus 103 versus the Tigers. Go ahead and hit us with this info, Lee. All right, so Blake Snell and some of these other pitchers have been surprising disappointments this year, but Jose Ureña has not. He has been an obvious disappointment, and he has really struggled in his last three years overall. His ERA has steadily climbed every season since 2017. This year, 2-8 with an ERA right at 6. He's 2-5 on the road. The Tigers have lost all five of his starts here by multiple runs. And what's a bit surprising here to me is that they're facing an Indians offense that is finally starting to score some runs. They're eighth in Major League Baseball runs in the month of June, and they're averaging seven runs per game in their last eight games at home. So the Tigers' bullpen, which is already tough to watch and tough on the eyes, has pitched 12 innings in the last three games, and I think this is a good spot here for Cleveland starters C.J. Mejia. So he has a .225 ERA this year at home, but he's done that mostly out of the bullpen. He's already faced the Tigers once, but that was as a reliever. We usually talk about the advantages that offenses have the second time they see a pitcher in a short period of time, but I don't think that necessarily holds true here where the lineup only saw this pitcher for one inning relief. You don't see his full arsenal pitches. He's got four different pitches, and the situations are just different. And so I think Mejia holds his own here, and the Indians' offense explodes. I'm going to say Cleveland Indians minus the one-and-a-half runs, minus 103, blowout special.”
The Cleveland at Detroit game scheduled for June 29, 2021 was postponed by rain and made up as part of a June 30 doubleheader, so the run-line wager was no action (ESPN).
“I'm going to roll the BenOnline.ag line Vanderbilt money line minus 140 versus Mississippi State. Break this one down for us So what it looks like because Vanderbilt won game one and they scored so early and often in this game we saw Mississippi State have to burn six total pitchers in that game yesterday So that's a problem for them. It looks like both of the aces for both teams, Kamar Rocker for Vanderbilt, Wilbur Nahr for Mississippi State will not go in this game. So it's all about depth here. and I think Vanderbilt has better pitching depth. Then on top of that, you think, okay, well, Vanderbilt exploded. They didn't explode yesterday. The top part of their order only had one hit. Yeah, they got three walks. So these guys know what it takes to get it done here. Great coaching staff. They're patient. They don't chase pitches here. So I think the top four Vanderbilt batters will come alive here today and face Mississippi State pitching staff that's pretty much beaten up here. It really helped Vanderbilt. They did not have to face North Carolina State a second time. So I think Vanderbilt's probably going to be champion again. So I'm going to lay the 140 here on the money line. I think Vanderbilt wins this game. They win pretty easy again. You know, Lee, this is something I wanted to ask you, man, with this game, and especially the way that Vanderbilt advanced to the finals of the World Series. We know how NC State, their game, they got moved out of there because of COVID. We all know how that shook out. Everyone could have their opinion on that. But has Vanderbilt suddenly become like, and you know this very well, like the Miami Heat were when they first got LeBron and everyone that wasn't a Heat fan was kind of going against them. I feel like a lot of people are going against Vanderbilt because they just don't like the way that they advanced. Well, that is part of it. Also, I don't know if you realize, every baseball player on Vanderbilt's squad is on a full scholarship. So college baseball, they're only allowed 11.8 scholarships. So whereas you think of the SEC and Alabama, they do things as far as recruiting. They have the facilities that are able to attract the best players. The way Vanderbilt does it is not through facilities. They offer everyone a full scholarship. And we're talking about a school that costs over $70,000 a year to go to school. And how do they do it? They do it through endowment. So you're probably going to have to see some of these other schools if they want to compete with the Vanderbilts to do something like that. 11.8 scholarships when you've got 25, 35 kids on the roster just isn't enough to compete. So, yeah, Vanderbilt's starting to become that hated team if they win a second title. Remember, there was no champion last year, but they did win it in 2019. And if for some reason they lose this game, they've got Kamar Rocker ready for game three. So I'm going to go with a level one lock here on the Vanderbilt Commodores.”
Mississippi State 13, Vanderbilt 2 — Mississippi State beat Vanderbilt 13-2 in Game 2 of the 2021 College World Series finals; the Commodores' moneyline busts (Wikipedia).
“We're going to roll this game, the BetOnline.ag line. We're looking at the Royals' first five innings money line, plus 125 versus the Red Sox. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right. So after a massive series against a big rival like Boston and New York over the weekend, I typically find ways to fade those two teams in their next series. And I think I found a really good spot here against Kansas City. Boston went through the heart of their rotation the last few days, and it leaves Garrett Richards to start tonight. He's had a very rough month of June. He has a 695 ERA, last five starts. And in his most recent appearance, he gave up five runs in just an inning and a third, and he got yanked early. He gave him the interview after the game. Some people just watch games. I like to watch the interviews sometimes. And he said he was working through a few things that it might take him a little bit of time to get back on track. So I'm not expecting tonight to be some massive rebound from him against a Royals team that can bring a sneaky offense. Richards is now 1-3 at home with a 646 ERA. He's facing Danny Duffy. And a lot of people don't even, and this guy isn't on anyone's radar to win any type of awards, but he's going under the radar just a 181 ERA this year, and it actually drops to 167 on the road. So I think this is a bit of a trap game for the Red Sox. I'm going to leave the bullpens out of this one. I know you love these kind of best first five innings, and I think Kansas City should have some success here. Kansas City Royals, first five innings, money line plus 125, wrong team favorite.”
Kansas City and Boston were tied 5-5 through five innings (Red Sox went on to win 6-5 in nine); the Royals' first-five-innings moneyline pushes (ESPN box score). (F5: KC 5, BOS 5)
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Suns minus five and a half versus the Clippers. Lee, break this one down for us. Alright, so do you think the Clippers got a chance to maybe win a game or two? I think anyone that thinks that they're going to win this series is in a bad spot because outside of Reggie Jackson who shot poorly in the last game and Patrick Beverly who plays some really good defense against Devin Booker I just don't see it. Paul George has got to do much, much more than going 5-for-23, shooting for the game if they want to have any chance here. Phoenix is one of these teams that when they're going well, They just keep rolling. 7-2 against the spread the last nine games. Following a straight-up win, also 7-2-1 against the spread. Last ten games here is a favorite. Clippers, not a good road team. 1-4 against the spread the last five as a road underdog. I don't see this Phoenix team having a rough shooting game again. They have too many guys that can knock down shots. So, you know, shooting at a 36% clip is not going to happen again, in my opinion. I think the place is going to be rocking. I mean, you talk about some star fans. I mean, it's been over a decade since they've had much to cheer about. No, it's not going to be rocking. It's going to be absolutely going crazy here. I'm laying the five and a half. Get on this game as early as possible. I think it's going to close six, six and a half. Blowout special. Phoenix Suns, big time. over the L.A. Clippers, Phoenix Suns, will be moving on to the NBA Finals.”
LAC 116, PHX 102 — Clippers beat Phoenix 116-102 in Game 5 of the West finals; the Suns' -5.5 spread busts (ESPN).
“BetOnline line for this one. We're going to roll the Angels and Yankees over 10 runs, minus 110. Break this one down for us, Lee. The way these two starting pitchers are going this year, I don't know what number this total would have to open at for me not to bet the over. I probably have to see it at like 11.5 for 12. We talked so many times about Dylan Bundy at the beginning of the year. This guy's just not a Major League Baseball caliber pitcher anymore. He has a 5.68 ERA. He's 0-5 with a 6.97 ERA on the road so far. This year, he's faced nine opponents that have winning records. He's 0-5 with a 7.99 99 ERA in those games. His biggest problem so far is home runs. He's given up 68 hits on the season, and 14 have been home runs. Well, no matter how inconsistent the Yankees' offense has been, we all know that they can hit some homers with the best of them, especially with the wind blowing out to left field at Yankee Stadium tonight. Michael King starts for the Yankees tonight, and this guy's a bullpen guy. He has to step up and replace some uninjured starters here. He has an 0-2 record with a 575 ERA as a starting pitcher so far, and his advanced stats show even worse ratios than that. He's also being forced to pitch here on four days of rest, and he did that earlier in the year. And so far when he's pitched on four days of rest, 704 ERA. I think both of these starters are in tough spots here after the Yankees, We're swept by the Red Sox over the weekend. I'm sure they're looking to put up some runs on these Angels to get back on track. I think we're going to see a 7-5, 8-6 game here. We're going to go over 10 runs, minus 110, level two lock.”
LAA 5, NYY 3 — Angels beat the Yankees 5-3; 8 combined runs stayed under the Over 10 total (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Hawks plus eight versus the Bucs. What's going on here, Lee? You know what KISS stands for in gambling, don't you? Keep it simple, stupid. There you go. Okay. So, bottom line here is what the odds makers do when a home team loses the first game. They either keep the odds the same or they even increase it. This line was too big to begin with. This line should have been four and a half five points in the first game It was eight They keeping it at eight I mean what is Milwaukee going to come up with Are they going to bring you know someone out of mothballs you know one of these great defenders of all time out to guard someone like Trey Young? They don't have it. So he's just too quick, too dynamic. And Atlanta, they don't fear anything. Eight points? Wrong team's favorite again. So Atlanta's going to take this game down to the wire. Wouldn't shock me if they win the game outright. I feel like the ultimate disrespect for the Hawks has been going on all playoff long, and all they keep doing is beating the odds, beating the odds, and again, beating the odds. Right. I'm not saying they're going to win it all. Right. I mean, if they do somehow win this series, I think Phoenix is going to be a tough out. But, well, I think Phoenix will be the prohibitive favorite. But I just think Atlanta's a fun team to watch, and you don't want to go against a hot team like this.”
MIL 125, ATL 91 — Bucks routed the Hawks 125-91 in Game 2; Atlanta lost by 34, well outside the +8 spread (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line we're going to roll. Means is minus 132 with the take back being plus 112 versus Dalby. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so normally you look where a fighter comes from and you think, oh, there's an advantage. Tim Means comes from Albuquerque, New Mexico. A lot of really good fighters come out of New Mexico. And Dalby comes out of Copenhagen, Denmark. You don't think of great fighters there. But here's a guy that, you know, he had to fight. He lost a couple times a few years back in 2016 in the UFC, was kicked out of the UFC, but worked his way back here. He has a karate background. He can beat you throwing punches with kicks, submissions. I think Means is good, but there is one thing that they have in common. They each fought Daniel Rodriguez in their last fight, and Means lost. Dalby won the fight. Means only real big fight that he won was against Mike Perry. And Mike Perry's a good fighter, but Mike Perry can be really good or really bad. And sometimes Mike Perry, if he's not training hard and he's partying in training camp, and I think that's what happened in that fight when he lost to Means, he just nodded. Hey, it looks like on paper, looks like it's a good win. But if you watch the fight, Mike Perry was off in that fight here. I'm taking Nicholas Locomotivo, Dalby here. I think he gets the win over Tim Dirty Bird means. Man, I was about to roll with Dirty Bird just because of his name. He's the Dirty Bird. I feel like he should be from Atlanta, though. Yeah, good guy. He actually served some jail time early in his life. I think four years in jail, but straightened his life out. I know he's a coach of a high school wrestling team. Two really good stories. Two fighters, 36 and 37. I still think Dalby might be on the way up to 36, believe it or not. I think he's on the downside. I just think that Dalby, just a little bit more than means. He's an underdog, too.”
Tim Means defeated Nicolas Dalby by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov on June 26, 2021; Dalby's moneyline busts (Wikipedia). (Means def. Dalby by unanimous decision)
“we're going to roll BetOnline.ag line. Tampa Bay Islanders first period under one and a half goals, minus 144. Break this one down for us. All right, so we have a game seven tonight. And what you would normally see in a game seven like this, especially when one team is a big underdog, is a long feeling out period when the game gets started. The Islanders in this case won't want to make a mistake that puts them at an early deficit. Tampa Bay has not lost consecutive playoff games since 2019. And so an early 1-0 lead for the Lightning would essentially end the game early. For Tampa, they're playing one of the most frustrating teams in the NHL when you're down a goal. Like I said, I think it's just going to be one of these first periods here where they play not to lose each team. and then it'll open up maybe in the second and the third periods, but not in the first. I'm not going to overthink this one. I think this game might be 1-1 or 2-2 by the end of it all, but these teams are just going to feel each other out here in the first period under one and a half goals, minus 144, level one lock in the Tampa Bay-New York Islanders game seven.”
Tampa Bay and the Islanders were scoreless through the first period of Game 7 (0-0); the Under 1.5 first-period total cashes (ESPN). (1st period: TB 0, NYI 0)
“we're going to roll, Lee, betonline.ag line. We're going to roll Tampa Bay versus the Islanders plus 330 that the game's going to be a draw and have to go to overtime. Yeah, so like I said, we're not going to play who wins. We're going to play the first period, and we're going to play that this game goes to a 60-minute draw. It pays plus 330. Wager every $100 you wager. Returns $330. You've got $1,000 on it. Returns $3,300. We said it already. These teams are not going to play for a blowout here. The 8-0 beatdown from the Lightning was not going to be the dagger that we thought it would be. But I can't see this Game 7 getting away from either team. Last night's elimination game went to overtime. And I would not be shocked if this game here follows suit. Bet a little. Win a lot. I'm saying the Lightning Islanders game is going to overtime for a second straight night.”
TB 1, NYI 0 — Tampa Bay beat the Islanders 1-0 in regulation on a 2nd-period Yanni Gourde goal; the game never reached overtime, so the 60-minute-draw/OT prop busts (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line going to roll the Royals plus 112 versus the Rangers. Break this one down for us, Lee. So I think the books made a mistake here, plain and simple. You look at Dane Dunning's numbers this year, and just about the only thing that has him going for him so far this year is his .250 ERA at home. Otherwise, he's been pretty awful. He's 0-2 in his last two starts with eight runs allowed in eight innings. The Rangers have lost his last seven starts. They're 2-12 in his starts overall this year, and he's 0-4 with a .552 ERA against teams with losing records. and he can't stop the Rangers losing streaks when they need him to. Texas is 0-8 in his last eight starts when they lose their previous game, and now the Rangers manager, Chris Woodward, is going to pitch him on four days of rest when they lost the last five games pitching him on four days rest. I don't get it at all. So then you have Mike Miner going for the Royals. Kansas City is 5-1 in his last six starts on the road. He's 3-0 with a 273 ERA away from home this year, and he's facing a team that can't hit lefties. Texas has lost their last four games against left-handed starters. The Royals have a much better bullpen than the Rangers do. I think this line should be minus 140, minus 150 here. We're going with Kansas City plus 112, level three lock.”
TEX 9, KC 4 — Rangers beat Kansas City 9-4; the Royals' moneyline busts (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Longhorns minus 160 versus the Cavaliers. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so I like the story with Virginia baseball. Rags to riches. They finished 18-18 overall in conference play at points of the season, especially early. they were not a good team. They were swept in a couple series, but wasn't for a couple series wins like a three and O sweep against Wake Forest, who was down to about 18, 20 players on the roster because of COVID and, and also injuries. This team may not even have made the ACC baseball tournament back right now with this run, they're only 36 and 26. They pitched their best pitcher, Griffin McGarry. He went almost the entire game last game and couldn't get it done. They blew a lead. You know what? I just think that this is a team that got as far as they could. They got really lucky. I mean, as far as the regionals and the super regionals, they got to play in the regional at South Carolina. South Carolina's not great. They end up beating South Carolina, Jack, and Jacksonville. And then they go to a super regional. They were lucky enough to play Old Dominion, which wasn't very good. So I think it was the luck of the draw. They got a little hot, but the bubble burst. Now they've got to face a Texas team that's got deep pitching, great defense. I just think that this Texas team is a scary good team. Also, talk about leadoff hitters, and that's what is very important in setting the table. And Texas has one of the best of them. His name is Mike Antico. Ten homers and over 40 bases he's stolen a season. First Longhorn ever to do that. So this guy just gets on base. I like Texas here. Minus 160. I think they get the easy win over Virginia. Blowout special, number one.”
Texas 6, Virginia 2 — Texas beat Virginia 6-2 in the 2021 College World Series; the Longhorns' moneyline cashes (Wikipedia).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Astros minus one and a half runs, minus 140 over Detroit. What are your thoughts? So Houston has had a ton of surprising guys step up this year for him. And one of those guys is Luis Garcia Garcia has a 282 ARA so far this season and his biggest strength has been his ability to gather strikeouts He ranks right now in the 72nd percentile in strikeout rate, 73rd percentile in chase rate, getting guys to swing at pitches outside the zone in Major League Baseball. That's a very underrated step and a process that people don't look at. The good news for him, he's facing a Tigers lineup that leads Major League Baseball in strikeouts at 27.4%. Garcia's facing off against Jose Ureña. Ureña is the least profitable pitcher in Major League Baseball on the first five innings. Check this record out. One win, nine losses, and three pushes. That's scary. Why does that matter if we have the full game bet? Well, because the only thing backing Urania here up is the fourth-worst bullpen in Major League Baseball. They've got an ERA due to the Tigers of 5-14. I don't think the Tigers have an offense that can keep up with the numbers here that the Astros are going to put up. Houston has won five straight against Detroit. And I think to make it number six straight in blowout fashion, blowout special, Number two here, Houston Astros, minus the one-and-a-half runs, minus 140, easy blowout special number two.”
HOU 12, DET 3 — Houston beat Detroit 12-3; the Astros' -1.5 run line covers easily (ESPN).
“The betonline.ag line, we're going to go Blue Jays, minus 120. The take back is plus 110 versus the Marlins. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, when you're handicapping baseball games, I would say 60-70% of your research should be in the starting pitching matchups. the remaining time and effort I put into going into a combination of offenses, bullpens, situations, in that order. So if you're putting 60% of your research into a play, then this Marlins-Blue Jays pitching matchup is way, way too undervalued by the books here. So Trevor Rodgers goes for the Marlins. And still, it's amazing. A lot of people don't know who he is. But this kid could win the NL Rookie of the Year He has a 187 ERA right now That is fourth best in ERA among all pitchers pitchers in major league baseball he three and one of the 161 era at home against teams with winning records and his era drops to 117 uh here uh so uh against winning teams so that's crazy i mean most pitchers you know they pitch better against poor teams, he gets up for the big games. A 117. That's minuscule. I mean, those are almost Jacob DeGrom numbers here, and the kid's only 23 years old. He's facing a Blue Jays team that is just 6-10 against left-hand pitchers this year. And I think he's in a good spot to go seven or eight innings here. So the bullpen, less chance they blow it here. I don't pick my hometown Marlins too often. This might be the second time all year. But plus 110 here, wrong team favored. I like the Miami Marlins big time here.”
TOR 3, MIA 1 — Blue Jays beat the Marlins 3-1; Miami's moneyline busts (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line. We're going to roll over 8.5 runs, minus 104 for the Braves and Mets. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so unders have been really strong for the Mets at home this year. So you have to pick your spots when you're looking for an over at Citi Field. But I think I found one. So Kyle Wright goes for the Braves. And I've watched this kid closely for most of his short career. He hasn't been able to cut it at the major league level yet. He already has 45 walks and just 68 innings in the majors. His ERA away from home is 580. and he has already given up eight runs and nine walks. He's just 16 innings pitched against the Mets in his career. The Mets will go with a bullpen game in this one. But the problem here is Marcus Stroman went down with a hip injury in last night's game in the second inning. So they already had to basically throw a bullpen game last night. Their bullpen has now worked 13 innings in the last three games coming into this one. and they're somehow going to have to scratch out nine more innings tonight from a bullpen that has been inconsistent for years now, especially at home. If you ever going to take an over at Citi Field tonight is the night to do it here Blow out special over eight and a half runs in the Atlanta York Mets game”
NYM 7, ATL 3 — Mets beat Atlanta 7-3; 10 combined runs cleared the Over 8.5 (ESPN).
“The BetOnline.ag line for this one. Atlanta plus eight versus Milwaukee Bucks. Lee, explain this one to us, man. I don't think anyone, and I'm talking about anyone, would have predicted the Atlanta Hawks would be playing the Milwaukee Bucks for the Eastern Conference Finals. But that's what we have. I actually think it's going to be an exciting series here. We might have some crazy endings here. We might have some fantastic finishes, a la maybe a Trey Young here, maybe a Chris Middleton. We also may have a meltdown. And I'm talking about the Greek freak. I mean, here's a guy that's had some highs, but some serious lows so far in his career. So I think that eight points is way too much here. I mean, you're talking about a team, Atlanta Hawks, that knocked off the number one seed. They are really good on the road. In fact, how about this? They are right now four and one against the spread in the last five road games. This team is fearless here. So everyone talks about the Greek freak. Atlanta doesn't have great defense. They may not have anyone to guard him, but who's going to guard Trey Young here? So I like a team that plays with no fear. I think the Bucs might implode. First game is very important. It's a feeling out process, but with a team that has no fear here, Hawks overall, yeah, four and one the last five. Rogan's five and two overall in postseason. I think they just keep moving on here. I'm taking the eight points. I think this game goes down to the wire. They might even win it outright. Level two lock, Atlanta Hawks.”
ATL 116, MIL 113 — Hawks beat Bucks 116-113 in Game 1 of the East finals; Atlanta's +8 spread covers by 11 (ESPN).
“Okay, so you have the NL East. It's the Mets right now leading by four games. Atlanta wins today in their head-to-head. They're only three games back. So I think the Mets are a team that I don't trust. The rest of the division, Philadelphia, Washington, Miami, I don't think they're contenders. I think they're pretenders. The NL Central, there's nothing there. the Cubs, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, St. Louis, and out west. Hey, maybe the Dodgers, you know, after you win it all, the next year teams just aren't the same here. I think Sandy goes close. I think San Francisco's good, but they might end up being a wild card team. So, hey, Atlanta wins a division. You're not getting 14-1 just to win the NL. You might be able to get 14-1 for them to win it all. So I'm going to take the Mets here at 14-1. For every $100 you wager, you can earn $1,400 off of it. So there's a wager you can follow for the rest of the season. Gives you a team to root for on a daily or a nightly basis. So they've got two strong pitchers. Freed and Morton, that are front-line pitchers, can pitch and beat anyone. And how about this? Their lineup, they don't have a hitter hitting above 285. I think that they're cold right now. I think they're about ready to just blow up, have an incredible month in the end of the season. Give me the Atlanta Braves plus 1,400. That's 14 to 1. Bet a little.”
The Atlanta Braves defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 4 games to 2 in the 2021 NLCS to win the National League pennant (Wikipedia).
“the betonline.ag line for this one we're going to roll under 224 and a half points for phoenix versus the clippers thoughts on this one all right so the first game ends up 234 total points scored i think we're going to see an adjustment here not just on the line i think that you're going to see the coaching staffs come together. The first game is a feeling out process and both teams shot extremely well. In fact, combined almost 51%. And so usually I don't see that most teams score in the 43 to 45%. And, you know, I'm not a Tyrone Lou fan, the coach for the Clippers, but I hear he listens to his assistants. Who did he hire in the off season to be his associate head coach? Daniel Craig. Who's Daniel Craig? He was a lead assistant for the Miami Heat. He felt that he needed to get out of the Miami system and not have Pat Riley and Eric Spolster take all the credit. He's really good at devising defensive game plans. Who else is on this coaching staff? Kenny Atkinson, a very underrated assistant. Chauncey Billups, who now people are talking about his name is being bandied about being a head coach and also Larry Drew one of the best maybe the best uh you know outside of head coaches uh assistant coaching staff so sometimes all you need is a head coach who listens and I think he's doing that so you can't get locked in on hey this coach isn't a good coach uh sometimes things change and I think they're going to make some adjustments and I think uh also Phoenix well too and I'm going with the under 220 and a half four and a half here wrong team favored I think we're going to see a much lower scoring game than the first game man okay there you go that that's a good way to approach that game different ways to bet them like you tell us all the time different ways to bet these games and uh just go for a low scoring game in this affair especially without what appears to be Chris Paul and and Lee this is such a tough series because you just have no idea what's going on with Chris Paul and if and when he's ever going to return no I don't think he's going to play I think it's going to be at least maybe another couple games”
PHX 104, LAC 103 — Phoenix beat the Clippers 104-103 in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals; the 207-point combined total stayed under 224.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Vegas Golden Knights minus one and a half plus 125 versus Montreal. Break this one down for us, Lee. It feels like we can say this about both series, but Montreal really should not be in this series the way that they are. They are lucky to even compete in the last two games at home to let alone win one of them and take the other to overtime. Montreal won game three in overtime, but Vegas really controlled the whole game and allowed the tying goal. Uh it it it was on on sports center not even a top 10 play by their goaltender Um Mark Andre Fleury then Montreal controlled game for the other night and lost in overtime after a 17 advantage and high danger chances. But now whatever home ice advantage Montreal had in those two games is gone, and they have to go back to a packed arena in Vegas for game five. Vegas actually rested Marc-Andre Fleury here for game four and started their backup, which most teams obviously don't do in the playoffs, but I think it's going to help them a lot here. They did the same thing against Colorado in round one, and Fleury came back and was unbeatable the rest of the series. I think Montreal essentially ran out of gas after the last game, and Vegas has a chance to really put a stranglehold on this matchup in front of their home crowd, and with a few players potentially coming back from injury, they should win this one handily here. I see a 4-1 or 5-1 final. at home. I don't think it's going to be 8-0 for my clients. We had given out that Tampa Bay game last night. I was sitting pretty after two periods, 6-0. But I think we're going to see a 4-1 or 5-1 final here. Blowout special. Vegas Golden Knights minus the one and a half goals plus 125. So, for every $100 you wager, it turns $125.”
MTL 4, VGK 1 — Montreal beat Vegas 4-1 in Game 5, so the Golden Knights failed to cover -1.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline line we going to roll with this one The Mariners versus Rockies under 8 runs minus 110 Break this one down for us. All right, so it's easy to see Kyle Freeland on the mound at this point in his career and immediately want to bet the over. He's 0-2 with a 9.58 ERA at this point in the year. His numbers are bad no matter what way you look at it. But you know who else numbers are bad? The Seattle Mariners offense and the Colorado Rockies here offense. In terms of the weighted on-base average, the Mariners rank second-worst Major League Baseball at home, while the Rockies rank dead last in Major League Baseball on the road. Both of these offenses cannot hit the broadside of a barn in these splits. And believe it or not, the under is 8-0-1, and Kyle Friedland's last nine starts against the AL West. He might not be great in this spot, but I really don't anticipate the Mariners here will take advantage of it. So his counterpart, Corey Flexin, goes for the Mariners, and this guy has actually been a bright spot for the Seattle rotation. He has just a 216 ERA at home. And as I said, he's facing statistically the worst offense in Major League Baseball in this game. And we should see this could be a 3-2, 2-1 final. So don't be afraid to bet unders. I know it's scary. You got to wait till the end of the game. Sometimes relievers blow it. But I don't think that's going to be the case in this game. under eight total runs minus 105 Seattle Mariners Colorado Rockies here level two lock there it is”
SEA 2, COL 1 — Seattle beat Colorado 2-1; the combined 3 runs stayed under the 8-run total (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll Vanderbilt versus North Carolina State. Under 10 and a half runs, minus 135. Break this one down for us. All right. So no NBA tonight. So, you know, and it's kind of a limited baseball board. Only about half the games are going, half the teams are playing. So you can look at some other things. And the College World Series has been great so far. You got two teams that have really good head coaches. And when you have a good head coach, he can sense when a pitcher is in trouble. Nice thing about the College World Series, they don't play on back to back days when you begin. so even though Vanderbilt had to go 12 innings they get a day's rest so all their relievers will be available for this game here so I had the pleasure when I was visiting my daughter early in the year of going to a Miami North Carolina State series saw two of the three games so I know all the personnel really well for North Carolina State they have two really good starters they have one real good middle reliever and one closer Vanderbilt a great starter everyone knows Al lighter. Well, his son Jack is a starter tonight. And I just see this game as being a low scoring chess match. So totals 10 and a half. I'm going under here in this Vanderbilt, North Carolina state game. Wrong team favorite. I think we can cash a nice ticket here on the under. I see like at most four, three games. So I think the over is juiced because, you know, we've seen some games early, you know, some really good hitting, but I think this is going to be a pitcher's duel. There it is right there. Pitcher's duel to start things off on today's show. Under 10 and a half runs right there, minus 135. Oh and something else also if you see end game wagering on this game So something to watch if you watch Jack Leiter If his curve ball this slider is if he getting it over the plate first second inning he usually is almost unhittable So you know if you bet something on it, you can maybe put a little more. If you see that, you know, even if they, you know, it comes down to 10 or nine and a half after an inning or two, let's say we're zero zero, he's getting that, that, that slider over for a strike, usually they're not going to give up many runs.”
NC State 1, Vanderbilt 0 — NC State beat Vanderbilt 1-0 at the College World Series; the single combined run stayed well under the 10.5 total (ESPN).
“betonline.ag line. Padres, first five innings, money line, minus 120 versus the Dodgers. Go ahead and break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so this is the game of the day by far in Major League Baseball, and I think the Padres are the only side you can trust here. The Dodgers just sleepwalked through a series with the Diamondbacks, and they finished with three games in San Diego before returning to L.A., And Hugh Darvish has been stellar this year. He has a .225 ERA at home so far. And he's been just as good against teams, the top teams, with a .231 ERA against opponents with winning records. He's one of these guys that has always been really tough for right-handed hitters to get on base against. And this year, he's suddenly been lights out against lefties, too. Lefties hitting just .182 against Darvish so far. The Yankees starter here. Urias has struggled a little bit last two starts with six earned runs and under 12 innings pitch. And I think the spotlight might be a little bit too big for him. And I'll stick with here the first five innings and the bullpens pretty exhausted for both teams. But I really like Darvish tonight. So slam Diego Padres first five innings. Money line minus 120 blowout special.”
San Diego led the Dodgers 6-1 through five innings (en route to a 6-2 win), so the Padres first-five moneyline cashes (ESPN box score). (F5: SD 6, LAD 1)
“BetOnline.ag line, we're going to roll. The Brewers and Diamondbacks over 9.5 runs, minus 120. Break this one down for us. Okay, so the Diamondbacks have lost 28 of their last 30 games. and 17 straight. I mean, they are almost unwatchable. But we don't have to bet form or against them here. I found a way to make some easy money. I think they're the worst team in Major League Baseball, and it's hard, like I said, to go with a game here if you're thinking about back them. But while their pitching has been horrible, at least they're scoring some runs. They're averaging over four and a half runs per game in the last 10 games, And that includes a series against the Giants and the Dodgers, two really top pitching staff. So their offense is at least doing its part. The pitching has been absolutely dreadful. They're also in a decent spot here against the Brewers pitching staff outside of Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burns. The Brewers starting pitchers have really struggled recently. Brett Anderson has to pitch tonight. And his home and road splits are, I mean, awful. He has been good at home, no doubt, but his ERA jumps to 547 on the road. He also is going to have to pitch deep into this game because the bullpen is really depleted here. With Milwaukee coming off a series at Coors Field, their bullpen is exhausted too. So I think the Diamondbacks will put up probably five, six runs. They might lose the game, but Milwaukee's coming back. Yelich has been back a couple weeks. He's getting hot here. Over nine and a half runs. Minus 120. Level two lock.”
ARI 5, MIL 1 — Arizona beat Milwaukee 5-1; the combined 6 runs stayed under the 9.5 total, busting the over (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag, line for this one. We're going to roll the Mariners money line, plus 105 versus the Rays. Break this one down for us. Okay, at the beginning of the year, Seattle pitcher Yusei Kikuchi was a guy that we talked about that better should watch closely. He had a high ERA in his career and some interesting splits across the board, but I dug into his numbers a little bit more. And one thing that stood out to me was he's 11 and 18 all time as a major league baseball pitcher, but he's just three and seven all time against top teams in the AL West against everyone else. He's been pretty darn good. Now he's facing a pretty hot Tampa Bay race lineup tonight at home, but he's a very good ground ball pitcher. So you got to look deep, and I'm talking about sometimes very deep into pitchers to find some situations where you can take advantage of. His ground ball rate is pretty elite among Major League Baseball starters at 52.3%. And that's a good neutralizer against a strong power-hitting offensive lineup. Tampa's going with the bullpen game here tonight. That's where you start a bullpen pitcher and you just keep bringing them in. You pitch five, six pitchers throughout the game. But I'm looking at it and they've got a lot of injured relievers on the shelf right now. So I don't love the spot for them. I think the wrong team is favored here Seattle wins this game four to Seattle Mariners money line plus 105 Wrong team favored number one”
SEA 5, TB 1 — Seattle beat Tampa Bay 5-1, so the Mariners moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“We're going to roll betonline.ag line for this one. The Canadiens money line plus 144 versus the Knights. Go ahead and break this one down for us, Lee. So you're going to have a hard time convincing me that the Vegas Golden Knights should be favored at all in this game. Montreal tied up the series the other night in what was really a dominating game by the Canadians, which shocked some people. They outshot the Knights until the third period, and they had a 15-9 here, high-danger chance advantage, as a plus-250 underdog. Montreal dropped their first two home playoff games, but since then, they're 3-0 with 11 goals scored in those three games. Vegas on the road here, and you have to consider what they're used to. Not only have the Knights played in a completely packed arena for the last few weeks. They haven't seen an arena with just 500 fans in it since, I don't know, maybe the beginning of the season. They played in Colorado and Minneapolis in the first two rounds of the playoffs. And even Minneapolis, they had over 2,000 fans there. The Canadians have been playing in a quiet building all year, and they're back home now. I made this line here like plus 120 for Montreal. I wouldn't be surprised if it continues to fall to that number here. Montreal Canadiens plus 144 money line, wrong team favorite number two.”
MTL 3, VGK 2 (OT) — Montreal beat Vegas 3-2 in overtime, so the Canadiens moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“the betonline.ag line for this one, over under 73 and a half hot dogs. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? All right. So what's great about betonline.ag is they have odds on the craziest stuff. And one of them is the Nathan's hot dog eating contest. We're just a couple weeks away. So you don't want to wait until the last minute to bet these. I just sometimes see a great line pop up, and I bet it. Joey Chestnut, total hot dogs eaten here in the contest on July 4th, is 73 and a half. He's 37 years old. This is a guy that keeps getting better and better and better but I think he maxed out He 37 years old He like one of these you know MMA guys or basketball guys gets a 37 38 MMA Your chin goes your reflexes go I don't think his stomach's any bigger. I don't think he can keep training like he, he has in the past. He has gone up and up from the low to mid sixties to 75 hot dogs last year. I think he's peaked out. I'm taking the under 73 and a half hot dogs, minus 120 on Joey Chestnut and the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest on July 4th.”
Joey Chestnut ate a world-record 76 hot dogs and buns at the 2021 Nathan's contest on July 4, well over the 73.5 line, so the under loses (Wikipedia, citing contest results). (Joey Chestnut: 76 hot dogs and buns)
“Betonline.ag line for this one. Milwaukee Bucks minus 5.5 versus the Nets. What's your thoughts on this one, Lee? So, first off, we have to acknowledge it's the craziest playoffs that we maybe have ever seen. The comebacks, we said it's going to go in ebb and flows. You know, the hockey, they had a great start. Now it seems like the NBA is taking over with some great games. And it's all about adjustments in the NBA playoffs. So, what we have here is, I think, that Milwaukee has got to put the Greek freak back on Kevin Durant. These other guys, they cannot guard them. There's a couple guys. There's six, seven guys in NBA that are almost unguardable. But I think the Greek freak is just going to have to step it up. It's his time. There's been some other players in the playoffs. I think this is going to be his moment. I think he's going to limit Kevin Durant to 25 or less points tonight. I think he's going to score 28 to 30 points or more. I think he's going to hit his free throws. And most importantly, he's going to play defense. On the other side, James Harden, he's like a decoy out there. I mean, he has certainly a compromised hamstring. You can tell. And Jeff Green is not going to shoot seven for eight from three-point land again here. And the Nets here, here's something interesting. When they're at least a three-and-a-half-point underdog, they've not fared well. 18-29 against the spread. They're putting that line out there. They want you to bet five-and-a-half points. They're begging you to bet. Brooklyn, don't fall for the trap. Blowout special number one, Milwaukee Bucks, minus the five and a half.”
MIL 104, BKN 89 — Milwaukee beat Brooklyn 104-89 in Game 6 to force Game 7, covering the -5.5 spread by 15 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll Astros minus 129 money line versus the White Sox. Go ahead and break this one down for us. So the Astros are in a pretty good spot here. They got two nights of rest in the last four days coming to this one. They get a chance to get off to a hot start against the AL Central leading White Sox. They're going to get Dylan Cease for this one, and it's a great way for Houston to start things off. Cease splits. Have him set up for a rough go here as he's running a .338 ERA that jumps all the way to .504 on the road. Even worse, in his career against teams with losing records, he's 12-2 with a 316 ERA. Hey, back him there. But against teams with winning records, the opposite. He's just 2-11. That is dreadful. 2-11 with an embarrassing 654 ERA. He's also another guy that relies on a ton of spin rates. This year's spin rates are 18% and 68% higher than the league average on his curveball and slider, respectively. so I'll be fading him tonight. Let's go with Houston. Moneyline, minus 129, blowout special number two.”
HOU 10, CHW 2 — Houston beat the White Sox 10-2, so the Astros moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“BetOnline line for this one We're going to roll the Lightning first period under one and a half goals, minus 130 versus the Islanders. Go ahead and explain this one for us, Lee. You love these early selections. Yes. First half in the NBA first period in the NHL, and I got one for you here. So game two of this series went over the total with a 4-2 final score. And the first period went over the one and a half with a score of 1-1. But if you go back and actually dig into how this game played out, there wasn't much happening until probably the final six minutes or so. In fact, neither team scored on a five versus five shot attempt advantage in the first period until there were about three minutes left in the period. The score didn't show it, but there was a real feeling out process during the first period. And I think that will carry over to these games in New York. But for Tampa, the under 5-1 in road playoff games so far, and that's to be expected. They are the defending Stanley Cup champions, and they know how to quiet the crowd early in games by playing a slower style. Everyone talks about their offensive abilities, and that holds true. But in recent postseason games, especially on the road, it really has not shown as much until they need it. The Islanders aren't going to be able to dominate the offensive zone much, in this game, and I'd be surprised if we see much more than a 0-0 game after the first period here. Level one lock under one and a half goals, minus 130 in the first period, Tampa Bay Lightning, New York Islanders game.”
Tampa Bay led the Islanders 1-0 after the first period en route to a 2-1 win, so the single first-period goal stayed under 1.5 (ESPN). (1P: TB 1, NYI 0)
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Going to roll 76ers minus six and a half versus the Hawks. Break this one down for us. This is another game where you got to think as far as injuries. Maybe, you know, you back off a little bit. So I still think that there's a play here. But you've got to be careful. And this game has a lot of layers. And as long as Joel Embiid is close to 100%, even 90%, I think they might be the right side. So in game one, Trey Young went off. They had a 26-point lead at one point. And then what did the 76ers do? They made adjustments. They put guys like Simmons and Thibault, they put them on Young. And what they were doing is they were trying to, you know, make it tough for him. You know, once he got into the lane to be able to make decisions, they want to keep this Atlanta team on the outside. They want to keep their other guys on the outside shooting with hands in their face. And since that time, since that first half, since they made those adjustments, they played really well. I mean, the crazy thing was, I mean, you're looking at it and watching him beat. I think he had the worst shooting half of anyone 0 for 12 in the second half in the history of playoffs. So I just think that you're going to see a different Joel Embiid. And someone for Atlanta's got to step up. John Collins, Herter, and also Gallinari. These guys have got to do something. So Collins wants that big contract. and these other guys, you know, would like to maybe get some more money in free agency. Once they get there next year and the year after, they're going to have to step up. I just don't see it. I mean, since they made these changes, I just think it's a freak that Embiid went 0 for 12. He's that good a player. So most attempts in a half without making, I think it's over 25 seasons, making a shot. So crazy. And he is that good. So I think this is their time. And also 76ers, nice, a 4-0 against the spread the last four games following a loss. So you see they bounce back. And Atlanta's not a great road team. 3-7 against the spread the last 10 road games. So I think this is Philadelphia's time. They step it up and show that this is one of the class teams in the NBA. I'm going to lay the 6.5 here. blowout special Philadelphia 76ers over the upstart Atlanta Hawks.”
ATL 109, PHI 106 — Atlanta rallied from 26 down to beat Philadelphia 109-106 outright, so the 76ers failed to cover -6.5 (ESPN).
“bet online dot AG live for this one we're gonna roll the Braves first five innings Under five runs minus 110 break this one down for us All right so this game had a total set at 9 last night which was pretty low given the starting pitching matchup I held off, and after the game went over, but they have come back and set the line at 9.5 again for tonight with the Braves going with their ace, Ian Anderson on the mound, and Garrett Richards for Boston. This is a bad line to me. I mean, usually a starting pitching matchup like this should be worth at least half a run or maybe a full run down to eight and a half. And the brave starter actually went down early last night with an injury. So it was straight to the bullpen for Atlanta. Anderson has been great for Atlanta this year. He has a career home ERA under three and an ERA against winning teams even under three. And since his first three starts of the season, hitters have a batting average under 200 against him. Garrett Richards, on the other hand, should be able to hold his own here. He's running just a 289 ERA on the road this season. And in interleague matchups in his career, an amazing 7-4 with an ERA of just 231. I mentioned that the Braves had to get into their bullpen early last night, and so did the Red Sox. So I'm going to stick with the first five innings in this one. I think this line was set way too high here. Under five runs, minus 110, level two lock in the Atlanta Braves-Boston Red Sox game.”
Boston and Atlanta were tied 6-6 through five innings before Boston pulled away to win 10-8; the first-five total of 12 runs busted the under 5 (ESPN box score). (F5: BOS 6, ATL 6 (12 runs))
“the betonline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll Tampa Bay regulation money line, minus 120 versus the New York Islanders. What are your thoughts on this one? Yeah, well, the lightning loss game one of this series, and I held off on the game because both teams had long layoffs. And sometimes, you know, you get a great performance. Sometimes you get an uneven performance. And Tampa had just beaten a much more exciting opponent in Carolina, but the Islanders pretty much dominated game one the other night. Steve Stamkos, the Lightning captain, turned a puck over that led to the game-winning goal, and he called himself out for it after the game as well. So the Lightning have not lost consecutive playoff games since 2019 when they were swept by the Blue Jackets in the first round. They know how to bounce back, and they know they can't go to Long Island down 0-2. I think they seal things up here in this one and split the home games to start things off. So I think they get on the winning track here and eat it up one-on-one. Tampa Bay Lightning, regulation money line, minus 120, blowout special.”
4-2 — Tampa Bay beat the Islanders 4-2 in Game 2 of the semifinals, so the Lightning regulation moneyline cashes (ESPN).
- Brooklyn Nets +4.5
- Under 218.5
“we going to roll this one BetOnline line four We going to roll Brooklyn plus four and a half minus 115 Total 217 and a half versus the Bucs Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, there's something called a correlated parlay. And what it is is usually if one thing happens, the other is going to happen. So if you look at the totals, how about this? So the first game of this series, total was 239 and a half. The final was 115-107. And the second game total was 238. Just came down a point and a half. Final 125-86. Two in a row unders. Then they bring it down to 235. And it's 86-83. Are you kidding me? And then the final, the fourth game for this one, was all the way down to 228-and-a-half. It was 107-96. Now for this game, what they're doing is bringing this game and this total all the way down even more. So what they're trying to tell you here is if you play the over, you're a sucker. Because I think that you're going to see Brooklyn slow down the game. They don't have maybe they're either number one or number two scorer in Kyrie Irving. They've got a bunch of complementary guys. They're going to have to play defense. And I think the moment is a lot here for Milwaukee also. So much is online. They need to win this game. So I think it's going to be more of a slowdown game. I think you'll see continued good defense. And then you might see a couple alligator arm shots by each team. You know, Greek freak has been known in big games not to play his best. And I think Kevin Durant going to have to play some defense. And they got to keep them on the court probably 38, 40 minutes tonight. So I'm going under here. I'm going to take Brooklyn Nets plus the points and the under in the game in a correlated parlay, pays 13-5. So, you know, you bet $100, you can return $260 on this wager. That's right up my alley right there. And, you know, Kevin Durant's going to have to do all the heavy lifting, like you mentioned, and you even mentioned it on Monday's show, just kind of looking at the early lines. You knew, hey, James Harden ain't playing, Kyrie Irving's not playing, and he's not playing it by the lines. You know, just by the lines, it lets you know that. And that's something that, you know, you really got to take a deep look at it. And you were able to see that and catch on to that pretty early. Yeah. And if you want, let's say you like the other side, if you bet that now, you know, you're chasing a bad line. I mean, this line started at two and a half. It's now up to four and a half. So, you know, you're betting a bad, bad line here. So the key is when a line moves away from you, I always just stay off the game. But I liked Brooklyn. It's up to four and a half. I think it's going to stay four and a half, maybe even close at plus five. So I'll take the points here. I think the public's going to be on Milwaukee. I think they're on the wrong side, and I think it's also going under 218 and a half.”
114-108 — Brooklyn beat Milwaukee 114-108 (Nets +4.5 covers), but the 222-point combined total went over 218.5, so the correlated parlay loses (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line, Reds versus the Brewers, over eight and a half runs, minus 125. Break this one down for us. All right, so I've talked about Luis Castillo a lot this year, and for all the wrong reasons. 6.47 ERA and 7.22 ERA on the road. But the one thing he has working against him is his run support. So for all the offense that Cincinnati has been able to produce this year, they haven't done it in front of Luis Casillo. He's getting just 2.22 runs per game in support this year. This is a big contrast from the rest of his rotation. So the good news for him in the Reds today is that they're facing Brett Anderson. and Brett Anderson for the Brewers is likely considered the main weak spot in the Milwaukee rotation with a five ERA that jumps to 547 in night games. The Reds are crushing left-handed pitching. Had them last night as a service play. They're knocking everything all over the yard. Nick Castellanos is now hitting 392 this year against the lefties. The Brewers will likely be without their main weapons also in the bullpen. You know, I have this total here set at 9.5-10. It's 8.5. I'm going over here. Level 2 lock, Cincinnati in Milwaukee. I think this here goes over by the sixth inning. So I'm expecting a lot of fireworks early. It's July 4th early here in this game. Well, there you go. This won't be a game that you're accusing the pitchers of having stick them? No, no. This won't be a game where the pitchers are dominating and everyone's wondering if they got some foreign substance on their legs. So, okay, good. I like that. You know, just – You know, it's also getting hot now, Christian Yellich. Pay attention to him. You know, he was hurt for a large portion of this season. He's come back, starting to hit home runs, drive the ball. So, both these teams got some bangers here. Nice. Nothing wrong with that. Banging some runs all over the yard is what we need to see in this one right here. Level two lock, says Lee Sterling.”
CIN 2, MIL 1 — Cincinnati beat Milwaukee 2-1 in 10 innings; the combined 3 runs stayed well under the 8.5 total (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag, line for this one. Canadians plus one and a half goals, minus 125, versus Vegas. Break this one down. All right, so it's no major surprise that the Canadians are over plus 300 to win the series. Let me say that again. The Canadians are plus 300 to win the series. I don't know if they're going to win the series. In fact, I probably doubt it. But they are the perfect team to match up with the Vegas Golden Knights in this round, and specifically in Game 1. Montreal swept Winnipeg a full week ago, and they had six days of rest before kicking off the series tonight. They're mostly healthy, and Carey Price, their goaltender, is playing like the Carey Price that has been maybe the top goalie here in the NHL for over a decade, just under the radar because he resides working and living in Canada. Vegas is in a tough spot here, to be honest with you. They just played what everyone considers this year's mini Stanley Cup. The Knights and the Avalanche were the top two teams in the league all season, And even though Vegas took the series in six games, it was much closer than it looked. And also, Colorado and Montreal are virtual opposites in terms of the style of play. The avalanche up and down, fast-paced, tons of skill, and a bit of Harlem Globetrotters' team. The Canadians are the most boring team left in the NHL playoffs. They cycle down low behind the net. They don't score a ton of goals, and they make the game as boring as possible when they're playing their best. So I think that even if it's possible at this point in the season, this is a letdown spot for the Vegas Golden Knights. They haven't played a Canadian team yet this year because of the border protocols. And I think Montreal is ready to give them some problems here. Wrong team favored. We're taking the Montreal Canadiens here plus the one-and-a-half goals.”
VGK 4, MTL 1 — Golden Knights beat the Canadiens 4-1 in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup semifinal; Montreal lost by three, failing to cover +1.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline Line for this one. We're going to roll the Oakland A's. Money line, minus 139 versus the Angels. Thoughts on this one. All right, so the Oakland A's might be the hottest team in America. They're 9-2 in the month of June, and they've only given up 33 runs in those 11 games. They also have won eight of those nine games by two or more runs. they're facing an Angels team that is also 9-2 in the month of June. And both teams have played some pretty similar competition. But these Angels games have been much closer than the A's. Dylan Bundy starts for the Angels. And if you'll remember, we talked about him at the beginning of the season as a guy who'd be struggling to even maintain that starting rotation position for L.A. by the end of the summer. Well, he's 1-6 with a 6-16 ERA this year, and he hasn't made it past the fifth inning since the start of May. He's actually 0-4 on the road this year, and then seven starts against teams with winning records, a disgraceful 0-3, 7-56 ERA. The Angels are starting him on six days rest to see if that will help him out. But so far this year, they've tried it five times. He's one and four with a 589 ERA on six days of rest. So I'm not counting on that to do the trick. I think the Angels have benefited from their schedule the last few weeks, and I don't think they're on the A's level here. So especially without Mike Trout in the lineup, the Athletics here should run away with this one, especially with a major bullpen advantage. We're going with the Oakland Athletics money line minus 139.”
OAK 8, LAA 5 — Athletics beat the Angels 8-5; Oakland moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“We're going to roll with the BetOnline.ag line for it. The Hawks first half plus two versus 76ers. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right. So I've enjoyed watching the Hawks this year. Been on them quite a bit. But you know what? Sometimes you don't have to trust a young team for 48 minutes. So I think they're going to come out with energy. I think that maybe Philadelphia is a little cocky going into this game after dismantling Atlanta on Friday night, 127-111. And so what I going to do is you know this Atlanta team didn win 13 in a row have a 13 winning streak before that just deflating loss on Friday night for a reason So I think that they've got shooters, Bogdanovich, Golinari, Hurtler. So these guys, I think, are going to hit the open shots. I like the direction that Nate McMillan has his team going. A lot of people forget they were 14-20 when he took them over. He led them to a 27-11 record the rest of the way. So I think they're going to make those adjustments. I think that they're going to come out with a lot of energy. I think the crowd's going to be into it at least for a half. And I think Philadelphia might be a little overconfident going into this game. So for that reason, we're going to take a first-half wager. I think it's the easier way to try to win here. Atlanta Hawks plus two against Philadelphia first half. Level two luck.”
76ers led the Hawks 62-49 at halftime of Game 4, so Atlanta failed to cover first-half +2 (ESPN halftime linescore). (1H: PHI 62, ATL 49)
“We're going to roll the betonline.ag line for this one. Washington versus the Giants. Under 7.5 runs, minus 118. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so this game was supposed to be played yesterday in Washington, D.C. with both teams coming off some long, grueling series that saw both bullpens pitch over 16 innings in the last three games each. So San Francisco's bullpen had pitched 18 innings, Washington 16 and a third over those three games. The wind was going to be blowing out to left center field as well, but the game was rained out. So new day today, Max Scherzer, Anthony Descafani, these two guys will make up the game as they were projected to start yesterday. But now both bullpens have an extra day of rest. Both starting pitchers have had an extra day of rest. And the wind is blowing in from right center instead of out towards left. So the books didn't change the total. You've got to get on this one as early as possible. I strongly disagree with not adjusting the line here. The under is 5-0, Max Scherzer's last five home starts. And it is 11-4 in Washington's last 15 games overall. I think we're getting a pretty good number here for two elite pitchers. I think we're going to see a 3-1, 3-2 final score. Let's go under here. Wrong team favorite.”
SF 1, WSH 0 — Giants beat the Nationals 1-0; the combined 1 run clears well under the 7.5 total (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll the Braves money line. Minus 116 versus the Marlins. Break this one down for us. So I talked about Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs a few weeks ago as a guy who just needed something to change to get going. And when we talk about guys who needed one thing to click to turn their season around. You can't forget Charlie Morton. I mean, in his first eight starts this season, he was 2-6 with a 5-0-8 ERA. He was pitching well, but was giving up a .337 batting average on balls in play, which can really illustrate how a pitcher's luck is going. Since that point, though, in mid-May, he's 4-0-4 starts with a .274 ERA and just a .264 batting average on balls in play. So he's only given up six walks in those four starts. He's done this against some really strong offensive teams here, like the Dodgers and the Mets. Braves are facing a Miami team that just hasn't gotten much going offensively at home, too. They scored 11 runs last night against maybe the worst team in the league in Colorado. But I don't see them putting up more than two or three runs in this game, especially in game one of a series. So, in fact, the Marlins are 2-8 in their last 10 series openers. I made the line like 135, 140. So, I think we're getting off on the right foot here in Miami. Will the Braves be? So, I'm thinking the Braves here. I think this is going to be a blowout special today.”
MIA 4, ATL 3 — Marlins beat the Braves 4-3; Atlanta moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Nuggets, minus one and a half versus the Suns. Give it to us, Lee. Break it down. Well, home court has been really big, we're finding out right now. Once you get later into these rounds, and we're also finding out, you know, when the talent is closer, these home court advantages, the fans really getting into it. Always been a big advantage to be at mile high. I know that they're down 0-2, but a couple things are in the Nuggets. A little favor here, and one of them is Willie Barton. He's back, and he seemed like he was almost in midseason form. I think that will help. I mean, they just couldn't shoot here. So, I mean, he had maybe his worst two games of the playoffs. Got to think at home he'll be fired up, and Barton added to it. this roster should help here. This is just a series I don't think we're going to see settled that quickly here. Give Phoenix credit. But they've had a couple runs there, and Denver just couldn't come back. Sometimes can't come back from the runs. I don't see them having these 10, 13, 14-point runs against Denver on the road. Sunshot 47.9% from the field, including 18-38 from three-point range. They also had an advantage on the glass, 52-46. So I just don't see those things continuing to hold up here. So these teams are good. I don't think they're great. No disrespect against Phoenix. I just don't think they're there yet. So I think Denver strikes back tonight. Low line here. minus one and a half Denver at home they get it done level two lock”
PHX 116, DEN 102 — Suns beat the Nuggets 116-102 in West Semifinals Game 3, a 14-point margin that busts Denver -1.5 (ESPN).
“under 11 and a half in Alabama. They played 12 games. Okay, they're not going to lose to Miami, but they've got to go on the road. They've got to play at Texas A&M, who's going to be really good. That's the sixth game of the year. A&M will have their quarterback situation settled by then. That's their only real question mark. Then the third week of the season, they've got to travel to Florida, Florida field. Then they've got to go the last game of the regular season. They've got to go to Jordan-Hare and play Auburn on the road. They're not going 12-0 again. They lose one game. You win the bet here. So I'm banking on Alabama's talent level being down, especially in the skill position. There's no way they can be close to as good as they were last year at the quarterback, running back, receiver, and defensive backfield positions. And then two others I like in state here. I like South Florida over three. I think they've got a decent amount of talent there. They've got Jaron Williams, former Miami quarterback, who a couple years ago almost led them to an upset opening week against Florida. And they're going to win more than three games. Actually, they lost a couple games last year because they're kicker. So they recruited a top-level kicker for Miami. Kid of the last name, Cannon, who I've seen play. He knocks everything right through the middle of the upset. Anything, not going to hit 60-yarders, but anything inside of 52, 53 yards, almost automatic, like extra points. And then FAU, they just dominate in that conference. They didn't have a quarterback last year. They got the other quarterback, Kosey Perry, from Miami. So they got a lot of talent. They get a lot of transfers coming in. In that conference, they'll go over seven. So under 11.5 with Alabama, over three with South Florida, over seven with FAU.”
Alabama went 11-1 in its 12-game 2021 regular season (its only loss to Texas A&M), staying under the 11.5-win total; the SEC Championship, CFP semifinal, and title-game loss to Georgia fell outside the 12-game regular season (ESPN schedule/results). (Alabama regular season: 11 wins)
“under 11 and a half in Alabama. They played 12 games. Okay, they're not going to lose to Miami, but they've got to go on the road. They've got to play at Texas A&M, who's going to be really good. That's the sixth game of the year. A&M will have their quarterback situation settled by then. That's their only real question mark. Then the third week of the season, they've got to travel to Florida, Florida field. Then they've got to go the last game of the regular season. They've got to go to Jordan-Hare and play Auburn on the road. They're not going 12-0 again. They lose one game. You win the bet here. So I'm banking on Alabama's talent level being down, especially in the skill position. There's no way they can be close to as good as they were last year at the quarterback, running back, receiver, and defensive backfield positions. And then two others I like in state here. I like South Florida over three. I think they've got a decent amount of talent there. They've got Jaron Williams, former Miami quarterback, who a couple years ago almost led them to an upset opening week against Florida. And they're going to win more than three games. Actually, they lost a couple games last year because they're kicker. So they recruited a top-level kicker for Miami. Kid of the last name, Cannon, who I've seen play. He knocks everything right through the middle of the upset. Anything, not going to hit 60-yarders, but anything inside of 52, 53 yards, almost automatic, like extra points. And then FAU, they just dominate in that conference. They didn't have a quarterback last year. They got the other quarterback, Kosey Perry, from Miami. So they got a lot of talent. They get a lot of transfers coming in. In that conference, they'll go over seven. So under 11.5 with Alabama, over three with South Florida, over seven with FAU.”
South Florida finished the 2021 season 2-10, well under the four wins needed for Over 3 (Wikipedia, 2021 South Florida Bulls football team). (South Florida: 2 wins)
“And then FAU, they just dominate in that conference. They didn't have a quarterback last year. They got the other quarterback, Kosey Perry, from Miami. So they got a lot of talent. They get a lot of transfers coming in. In that conference, they'll go over seven.”
Florida Atlantic finished the 2021 season 5-7, below the eight wins needed for Over 7 (Wikipedia, 2021 Florida Atlantic Owls football team). (FAU: 5 wins)
“The BetOnline.ag line for this one. Golden Knights versus the Avalanche. We're going to go first period under one and a half goals, minus 120. Vegas is up 3-2 in this series. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yes, so these are two really talented teams. And everyone is going to come into this game thinking it's an elimination game for Colorado. The season's on the line. These two are the top scoring teams in the NHL in the regular season. and Vegas is going to have to match their intensity. There has to be some scoring here, right? Right. Nope. Nope. I don't think so. So you have to watch these teams a lot to get a feel for how they play these tight games. And Vegas does not give an inch in these big games. They did it the other night in Colorado. And the only goal that was given up the first period was a Hail Mary from the blue line that somehow caught the Vegas goaltender on his wrong foot. These teams play fast, especially in the neutral zone, but once either team enters the offensive zone, they crowd the net and shut things down. I think we see a 1-1 or 2-1 game here going into the third period, and I don't see a whole lot going on in this game in the first 10 minutes here. So, hence, under one and a half goals here, minus 120, wrong team favorite.”
Golden Knights led the Avalanche 2-1 after the first period (3 combined goals) in Game 6, exceeding the first-period Under 1.5 (ESPN linescore). (1P: VGK 2, COL 1 (3 goals))
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll the Astros and Red Sox over nine runs, minus 115. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right. Zach Winkie starts for Houston. He's been pretty good on the road this year. He's 4-0 with a 150 ERA. But the over is 4-2 in his six road starts. Why? Because he has received 37 runs in support from the Houston Astros lineup in his six starts. The over, 9-0, last nine starts overall. and the over is also 7-0 in his last seven starts against teams with winning records. Greinke, 0-2 in his career at Fenway Park with a 964 ERA there, so I don't know whether he's going for a little skyline chili and he's got the runs before the game or something, but something going on Maybe he taking in family there You just don know but he obviously distracted Maybe he distracted by you know the green monster but Eduardo Rodriguez starts for Boston He personally has given up three or more earned runs in his five consecutive starts. He's just one in three with a 6-60-70. He already gets teams with winning records this year. Most importantly, he's facing a Houston team that matches up really well against left-handed pitching. Their only start here against left-handed starters lately just rocked them, and I think he's going to get lit up. I think we're due here for a 7-5, 8-6 score here, hence over 9, minus 115, blowout special.”
BOS 12, HOU 8 — Red Sox beat the Astros 12-8, a combined 20 runs that clears the 9-run total (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Aiden Lee plus 500 versus Aaron Pico. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Guy's got a good name, right? So I don't think people know a whole lot about Aiden Lee because he's from England. This is a Bellator fight, and you see some crazy stuff in Bellator. You see some quick knockouts, and then you see some huge upsets. So this guy is actually impressive. I mean, usually a plus 500 underdog, you're like, oh, this guy has a lot of weaknesses. Is he going to win a championship ever? Maybe not, but I think he's got a chance to eventually get to the UFC. He can win in a lot of different fashions. In fact, listen, if you're going to take an underdog, he better not have just one path to victory, let's say like a knockout or submissions. This guy won his last fight by head kick. He's won, I think, three or four fights as professional by rear naked choke. He wins by ground and pound. He even won a fight as a pro using an inverted heel hook. So this guy, I mean, yeah, he gets taken down sometimes, but he tries crazy stuff to get back on top. He can submit guys from the bottom, which is very tough to do. And he even took and he demolished a guy that is in the UFC. And I'm talking about Ludovic Klein, who's 1-1 in the UFC. He ended up submitting him via rear naked choke in round one, middle round one. So I think he's got the pedigree. I think he has different ways that he can win I thinking Aiden Lee plus 500 Every you wager you can win 500 bucks Give me Aiden Lee Bet a little win a lot”
Aaron Pico submitted Aidan Lee via anaconda choke in round 3 (1:33) at Bellator 260; Lee's moneyline busts (Wikipedia results table, corroborated). (Pico def. Lee, submission (anaconda choke) R3 1:33)
“Notre Dame, plus 18-1. 18-1 on Notre Dame.”
Notre Dame was eliminated by Mississippi State (6-5) in the Starkville Super Regional and did not reach or win the 2021 College World Series, which Mississippi State won over Vanderbilt (Wikipedia, 2021 NCAA Division I baseball tournament).
“They don't have a history of winning it, but they're really good this year and also played in a tough conference in Ole Miss, probably the toughest conference in baseball in the SEC. They're 22-1.”
Ole Miss was eliminated by Arizona (5-2) in the Tucson Super Regional and did not reach or win the 2021 College World Series, which Mississippi State won over Vanderbilt (Wikipedia, 2021 NCAA Division I baseball tournament).
“Going to go betonline.ag line for this one. The Jazz minus three versus the Clippers. Break this one down for us, Lee. So the Clippers were able to dig out of that 2-0 hole against the Dallas Mavericks. Now they're going to have to start from behind. They're down 1-0. And I watched that game, and sometimes when you, I had Utah in the first game, you don't see things clearly. But what I saw was a Clippers team that I think is going to make some adjustments to Rudy Gobert, who is just incredible in the middle. I mean, he changes so many shots. So I think the second time playing him will be an advantage for the Clippers. Paul George didn't show up in the first game. Yeah, you know, he shot, I think, like 23%, 24% from the field. But 13 of his 20 points came in the fourth quarter, so they were way down. So the fact remains that he shot 23.5% in that game, and he's going to have to show up. They still have the best player, in my opinion, on the court in Kawhi Leonard. He can take over. He can score 40, 45 points. Take nothing away from Mitchell. I love his game. He's arrived, just like the series before it, you know, with Luka. he's arrived but doesn't mean even though you've arrived that you're going to win this series or win this game here and um just think they're going to make adjustments here i just think that uh collie's situation and then on top of that utah had to work hard for their shots they could not the one-on-one driving they just need to pick and roll and the the just it's it's tough they're going to have guys in their face all night long and I think that the Clippers are going to have more space to get off shots here. Give me the LA Clippers level two lock.”
UTA 117, LAC 111 — Jazz beat the Clippers 117-111 in West Semifinals Game 2, a 6-point margin, so LA failed to cover +3 (ESPN).
“The Denver Nuggets versus the Phoenix Suns. Love this series a lot. Really like what the Suns are doing. Denver plus six versus Phoenix. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so we, like we predicted, that Jokic would be the MVP, and he was, so rightly deserved. He had a rare off game last game. Only 22 points. 10 for 23 from the field. So I don't expect that to happen. And the crowd was really into it in game one. And if you think that four of the five starters, including Aiton, he was 9 for 13. Booker, 8 for 12. Chris Paul, 8 for 14. And then also called Bridges, he was 8 for 12. If you think they're going to shoot that lights out, go to Vegas or start buying lottery tickets. I think this series is going to have a lot of close games here. I think the line is off. I think the line should be four. The first game was six. So usually when a team loses, even if they're blown out, the line shrinks because it's a must game here or close to it for Denver. I think they'll make adjustments. That's what series is about, making adjustments. And this isn't like a one-game series or even a three-game series. I think Denver comes out, plays better defenses. You can look at all the statistical categories. They're almost dead even in almost every statistical category. Take the six here. Wrong team's favorite. Denver takes it down to the wire. Wouldn't shock me here if they even win the game outright.”
PHX 123, DEN 98 — Suns routed the Nuggets 123-98 in West Semifinals Game 2, a 25-point margin that busts Denver +6 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Cardinals, we're rolling money line. Minus 121 versus the Indians. Thoughts on this one? So I think this is one of the bigger starting pitching matchups of the day right here. You get this since 2016. Adam Wainwright, you think of him as being pretty decent. Am I right, Q? Yes, yeah, absolutely. Okay, okay. But on the road, I don't know if I've ever seen splits like this. This is going back to 2016. His ERA is 618, 732, 438. That's considered real good for him. 622, and this year, 820. At home, though, his ERA, 320, 308, 256, and then 241 this year. This guy has been lights out for a couple years now since the Cardinals opened up the new Bush Stadium Some pitchers really enjoy certain ballparks And it clear that Adam Wainwright loves not like loves Bush Stadium So Wainwright, he's matched up with a guy here, Mejia, who is making just his second career start. I think the Indians' starting pitching step actually falls off quite a bit after Bieber. And so I want to get on this one and back Wainwright at a pretty short price. I think it's going to close 130 to 140. I think the Cardinals could get to this young starter early and should be able to hold on all night here. I'm taking St. Louis here minus the small spot. I think it's going to be a blowout game here. And like I said, practically a pick-em.”
STL 8, CLE 2 — Cardinals beat the Indians 8-2; St. Louis moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“We're going to roll this one. Yankees and Twins over 8.5 runs, minus 109. That's the betonline.ag line for Yankees vs. Twins. Thoughts on this one? So something's up with Garrett Cole and it is not a good look for him. The foreign substance on the pitcher's hands topic of conversation has come up pretty prominently at two separate points this year. Once back in mid-May by some media figures and once this past week by Major League Baseball. It's been discussed in the meantime, but those two moments were the two times it really has come to the forefront of sports coverage. Well, Garrett Cole has had two really bad starts this year. You want to guess when they were? Yep. Once in mid-May against the Texas Rangers and once this past week against the Rays. So I don't want to accuse Cole of anything, but there is some interesting video evidence out there on Cole's routine on the mound. There are certainly some interesting trends in his spin rates here right now as well. I think he might be having to limit some of his routines right now, and the news coverage on these pitchers just might be getting to him. So on the other end of things here, the Yankees, they're going to face a pitcher for the Twins in Dubnik, who has a 619 year area this year It jumps to 685 at home His exit velocities and more importantly his strikeout rates are in the bottom 5 percentile across the entire Major League Baseball as well. Yankees offense has been underwhelming this year, but this could be a great day for them to break out against a very subpar pitcher. I think Eric Cole might help a bit here on his own, and I think it's going to get us to the over here of eight and a half pretty early, maybe by sixth, seventh inning here. So I'm going over here, level two lock over in the Yankees-Twins game.”
NYY 9, MIN 6 — Yankees beat the Twins 9-6, a combined 15 runs that clears the 8.5 total (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Baltimore, plus 101 versus the Mets. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, David Peterson, Mets starting pitcher. He has some pretty crazy splits in his first 10 starts in Major League Baseball. At one point earlier this year, he was 4-0 in his career at home and 1-4 on the road. But he had better stats on the road than he did at home. So you could look through his splits and see that it was a bit of a fluke and that he was going to regress to a mediocre pitcher, in my opinion. And that's what is happening now. The Mets have lost three of his last four starts. In his last appearance, he didn't even record a second out of the game. He gave up five runs in the third of an inning. He was pulled immediately after. And that was against the Arizona got-no-bats Diamondbacks. And they're just – Diamondbacks are awful. That's a club saying that they're not rebuilding, but they're really rebuilding, but they're not rebuilding. They're just bad. So now he faces an Orioles team that is near the bottom in the standings. And I've already had two people message me this morning asking why the line isn't higher on the Mets because they're leading the NL East and Baltimore's dead last in the AL East. But Peterson has a 5.26 year in his career against teams with losing records. When the line is a little bit fishy, like this is a clear sign that the sharp betting market is on to something here. And I think we're going to get ahead of some line movement here. And I'm betting against David Peterson. I think the Orioles could put up four or five runs on him. And I think Baltimore actually has a better bullpen than the Mets. Wrong team favorite. Baltimore Orioles plus 101 versus the New York Mets.”
NYM 10, BAL 3 — Mets routed the Orioles 10-3; Baltimore moneyline busts (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Colorado, Moneyline, minus 150 versus the Golden Knights. And, oh, by the way, this series is tied at two. Lee, break this one down. Okay, so I thought to myself when the postseason started that the Avalanche were the best team in the NHL and had them number one in my power rankings by far. But my one concern with them coming into the Stanley Cup run here was whether or not they could deal with adversity. They only trailed, get this, for 252 minutes all year. in the regular season. Wow, that's incredible. They dealt with some injuries early in the year, but they had won so many games already that they weren't in danger of losing the top seed in the West at the time. So they really weren't affected by it. And then in the last two games, they go to Las Vegas and got pummeled in both games to even the series up. So I still have my doubts about their ability to play without the lead, but I don't want to doubt their ability to come out in games firing on all cylinders and getting out to an early lead. That's what they do early and often. That's what I think will happen tonight. They're back at home in Denver where they're the best team in the NHL this year, and their head coach just called out their top players for the second game in a row. I think this is the night where their top guys like Nathan McKinnon get some space to skate and get some early goals. this should be a quick 2 or 2 lead which is exactly where Colorado wants to play they can run away with it at that point here We going to go with Colorado Money line, minus 150, blowout special over Vegas.”
VGK 3, COL 2 (OT) — Golden Knights beat the Avalanche 3-2 in overtime (Game 5 of the West 2nd-round series); Colorado moneyline busts (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Jazz minus four versus L.A. Thoughts on this one, Lee? A lot of layers to this game here. So we know that Charger Baca is out. We know that Mike Conley, game time decision. So you have to kind of figure that out. But this is the series I've been waiting for. I think this is going to be the best series right now. And I think the advantage here lies in who can make the best adjustments. So Reggie Jackson started over Patrick Beverly last series. and I think it's going to be interesting to see how Tyronn Lue, how does he go here? Does he go to stay with Jackson? I think he is going to do that. Or does he go back to Beverly? Tough decision here. And it might make the decision, and his choice might be, you know, everyone's talking about Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Something as subtle as that could make the difference in who wins this series. So Utah's great at home, best in the NBA. I think over the last couple of years, 31-5 straight up. So it's not like you're laying six and a half, seven points. You're laying four points. The Clippers are going to have to shoot three-pointers because that defense, they suffocate you at the three-point line. They make you tough to shoot. They force you into bad shots. And you only shoot 32% three-pointers against the Jazz. they all funnel everything into the middle, and then they've got maybe the supreme defensive center in the NBA. So a little bit different defense than they're going to face than the Mavericks have, which is absolutely nothing. And, I mean, look what the Jazz do. They 4 against the spread the last five games following a win by 10 points And where some teams after they have a big win when they regress not the Jazz They just keep rolling They had a couple of streaks I think they were well above 10 games. One might have been 15, 16, 17 straight wins this year. And they're also 4-1 against the spread the last five home games against teams with a winning record above 600. So this is a quality team. I think they're better coached. They're playing at home. They have the better defense. And I'm going to lay the four points here in the Utah Jazz. It's not going to be a level one, not even a level two, coming right out of the gate. The first game in the series, level three lock, Utah Jazz.”
UTA 112, LAC 109 — Jazz beat the Clippers 112-109 in West Semifinals Game 1, a 3-point margin that falls short of the -4 spread (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll the Cubs money line plus 110 versus the Padres. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Slam Diego Padres aren't looking so good. Slam Diego Padres. I don't know if you've been following what they've been scoring lately. It's not been a lot. Okay, since May 31st, just a week ago, two runs, and then the last six days, 3-1, 4-2, 0, and two runs. So a little bit of regression there. Pitcher for this game, Ryan Weathers, who I said last week we faded against the Cubs, and guess what? Nothing changed. The Padres' bullpen, exhausted and injured. Cubs' offense has been pretty good the last few games. We're going to go with the Cubs again, and I made this line here minus 120 for Chicago. So there's some real good value. You're getting them plus 110. For every $100, you're going to return $110. So let's lay it here in the wrong team's favorite. Chicago Cubs money line plus 110 over the slamless Diego Padres.”
SD 9, CHC 4 — Padres beat the Cubs 9-4 at Petco Park; Cubs moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Bruins, money line, minus 179 versus the Islanders. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right. So, you know, I've talked for a long time how I like Boston. I think Boston is going to win the series. I think they have a shot. We have them as a long shot to win the whole thing. And they just have a lot of really good players. And so what I think is going to happen in this game, if you watch the four games, So the Islanders won the last game somehow. But you look at the best players on the ice, Patrice Bergeron, center, guy's amazing. Some of their other players, like Brad Marchand. These guys, he's just a pest. It's like they're skating at a different level. David Pasternak, incredible. And then they have a really good goalie. So I think those three guys, you know, they just push it, and they're just faster. They're just more skilled than the top players for the Islanders. And bottom line, it comes down to key players at key times. So I think they're going to do a lot of forechecking here. They'll get the better goaltending. As long as we don't see some real weird breaks and some bad calls by referees I laying the 179 I usually don lay this type of wood But the Boston Bruins are as close to a lock on Monday night to beat the New York Islanders blowout special Boston Bruins”
NYI 5, BOS 4 — Islanders beat the Bruins 5-4 in Game 5 of their East 2nd-round series; Bruins moneyline busts (ESPN).
“the betonline.ag line for this one, the Nets are still minus 1.5 versus the Bucks. Break this one down for us, Lee. And it's not going to matter. I mean, if you watch the game and you watched the body language of the Milwaukee Bucks players, except for the only guy that showed any emotion and played really hard was Brooke Lopez. Out of that, I mean, the Greek freak. I mean, played hard, but not efficient, not good enough. I mean, Chris Middleton, are you kidding me? This guy wants to be a second option, wants to be paid like a second option. Six for 23 from the field, 0 for 5. Some of their other players, P.J. Tucker, nothing. One for four from three-point land. Drew Holiday, seven for 19 from the field, two for seven from three-point land. Forbes, who was playing out of his mind against the Miami Heat, nothing. I mean, this team is playing scared. Brooklyn believes in themselves. I think they have Milwaukee psyched out. I think Milwaukee, they were so psyched up for the Miami series, I don't think they have anything left. So I like the supporting cast here for Brooklyn. Let me tell you a guy that, one of the most underrated guys this year, has got to be Bruce Brown. I mean here a guy only 6 plays 22 minutes a game average for the year He averages 8 points per game shoots almost 56 in 22 minutes he a 6 guy averaging almost 5 rebounds and over 1.5 assists. So that's the type of play. I mean, guys, gritty, doing the little things, getting the job done. And then Kyrie takes over. Kevin Durant takes over. Blake Griffin playing at a high level and playing defense here. I'm taking Brooklyn here. Level two lock, I think they have Milwaukee's number.”
BKN 125, MIL 86 — Nets beat the Bucks 125-86 in East Semifinals Game 2; Brooklyn's 39-point margin easily covers -1.5 (ESPN).
“The betonline.ag line for this one. Vegas Golden Knights plus 103 versus the Avalanche. Break this one down for us, Lee. So Vegas played the best game of the postseason in game two the other night. in Denver. I know they lost the game in overtime, but it really wasn't all their fault. They got called for a pretty weak penalty call in overtime, and the Avalanches capitalized on it. Now, they get to return home to a full-capacity arena for Game 3. Maybe the biggest advantage in hockey lies in their home ice here, and the entertainment value alone in the Knights arena can warn a play on the night. So Colorado has been shut out just twice in the last 85 games. Guess who did it? None other. Marc-Andre Fleury, the Knights goaltender, has both of those shutouts. He played really well in game two, and I think he'll play even better here. So Vegas has to take advantage of the home ice in this series if they want to have a chance. So I think they'll capitalize here after a pretty encouraging performance in game two. I'm going to Vegas Golden Knights here I can't remember the last time they were an underdog at home Vegas Golden Knights money line plus 103 I can tell you for sure the wrong team favorite”
VGK 3-2 COL — Vegas beat Colorado 3-2 in Game 3 on late goals from Karlsson, Pacioretty and Marchessault, so the Golden Knights moneyline wins (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Thunder, minus 131 versus Robocop. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so Thunder here, Todorovic, talented young prospect. He was undefeated until his last fight when he just seemingly was underestimating his opponent. He was dancing at the end of the first round. He got caught, and he was finished there. He learned the hard way that you can't get away with playing games in the octagon. His opponent, Greg Rodriguez here, is taking this fight on short notice. He was knocked out in the first round in his only fight here at this level in the Dana White Contender Series by Jordan Williams. I believe the odds are way off. I think this fight should be something like minus 180, minus 200 here. So, Toto, he's a small favorite right now, minus 131. I think it's going to go up. Probably it's so low because due to him getting knocked out in the last fight here. But I'm going to go big here. on uh on thunder uh to beat rodriguez here i just think that robocop uh badly uh just he's just gonna be overwhelmed here in this one the robocop cop here is gonna be sent down to the minors uh give me thunder here over robocop yeah thunder robocop hasn't been uh relevant in a long time right when's the last time we went watch the robocop movies remember him back in the day yeah long time that's been erased from my memory yeah that was the old that was old school right there So we'll roll with Thunder over RoboCop.”
At UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai on June 5, 2021, Gregory Rodrigues defeated Dusko Todorovic by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28), so the Todorovic moneyline loses (Wikipedia, citing official UFC results). (Rodrigues def. Todorovic by unanimous decision)
“Betonline.ag line for this one. Clippers minus 2.5 versus the Mavs. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? I think the Clippers are going to do a little switch up here. I think they're going to put either Paul George or Kawhi Leonard on Luka. You've got to put a more athletic person on him, and you've got to make him drive, and you've got to make him hit tough shots. He's going to hit some. But really no one else on that roster for Dallas has stepped up and had a huge game. So, you know, Tim Hardaway Jr., you know, if he shoots threes, yeah, he can hurt you, but make him drive. I think they've got to make these guys work. So don be surprised if George or Leonard or a combination of both on Luca they got to stop the train And that the only way I think they can do it here And It been a crazy series Not one home team has won so why should we go the home team now I taking the Clippers on the road here. Minus two and a half. Blowout special.”
LAC 104-97 DAL — The Clippers beat Dallas 104-97 in Game 6 behind Kawhi Leonard's 45 points; the 7-point margin covers -2.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line. We're going to roll Miami Marlins and the Pirates. over seven and a half runs, minus 117. Thoughts on this one, Lee? You don't find often opportunities to bet on offenses that are considered to be as bad as Miami's and Pittsburgh's. But I think I found one of those opportunities with this one. The Marlins are second to last in the NL East, but they're one of just two teams in the division with a positive run differential. Why is that important? because that is a good sign that they should regress positively and start to score runs soon. So one of the ways to do that is to beat up on some bad teams, and that's what the Marlins do so far this year. Against teams with a winning record, averaging just 3.3 runs per game. But against teams with losing records, they're averaging 4.5 runs per game so far. They're also facing a Pirates pitching staff that has a 590 ERA against teams with losing records, which is worse than their ERA against winning teams. And Mitch Keller starts for Pittsburgh, and he has an ERA over 7 at home this year. He's allowing batters to hit 359 against him with runners in scoring positions. So I think the Marlins are going to beat up on him. I think we're going to see probably something like 7-2, 7-3 score. So you don't have to watch the entire game. You're going to just have to watch it after six or seven innings. Wouldn't do that to you. Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates, over 7.5, minus 117, level two lock.”
PIT 9-2 MIA — Pittsburgh beat Miami 9-2; the 11 combined runs cleared the Over 7.5 total (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag for this one caramel thunder minus 118 versus the argentine dagger break this one down so this is a fighter here in baeza um that i think is is going up and panza nibbio going down in november of 2018 panza nibbio he's been fighting in the ufc since 2013 but in 18 he was coming off a round of four KOs of Neil Magny was one of them to raise his record all the way to 27 and three. He looked like a serious future title contender. However, he suffered a string of career threatening bacterial infections and arthritis that put him out of action. Forget this, 26 months while in the prime of his career. Baeza, 10 and 0, coming off an impressive win over Takashi Sato here. And he's a guy that can beat you standing and also on the ground. Ponzinibbio looked like a shell of his former self in his return in his last fight. He suffered a brutal KO in January. I see Baeza winning this fight in every way. He could finish the fight in numerous ways. Ponzinibbio's only real shot here is a KO. And I don't see him having the skills to take Baeza out here based on his last performance. So we're going to go big on Baeza to win in this one. And we picked Thunder as a level one lock. We went with, surprisingly, the Miami Marlins-Pittsburgh Pirates game to go over as a level two lock. And we're going with Carmel Thunder as a level three lock here. And I think he's going to be all over him like vanilla ice cream. and new future title contender is going to emerge victorious here. I like Caramel Thunder here, level three luck.”
At UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai on June 5, 2021, Santiago Ponzinibbio defeated Miguel Baeza by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) in a Fight of the Night bout, so the Baeza moneyline loses (Wikipedia, citing official UFC results). (Ponzinibbio def. Baeza by unanimous decision)
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll Bruins minus 141 money line versus the Islanders. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, we always talk, or at least we do talk quite a bit about, But they're trying to win these offshores in Vegas and the sportsbooks are trying to get you bet one way. It's a false positive. They're trying to get you to bet the Islanders here. If you bet the Islanders, you get one plus 120, 125 at home. People like to bet home favorites. But what happens when you really look at this series closely is we have an even series headed back to New York after an overtime goal, one up for the Islanders the other night. But the Coliseum, and I know it's been a while, but the Bruins are 2-1 on the road so far in the playoffs. And they put up 42 shots in game two. Eventually, when you have expected goals, usually those things happen. So you can have, you know, you can go through a couple games or a series where it doesn't happen. But I think you can't keep hitting the post too many times. The Islanders fans have some good chance to get inside the head of opposing goalies. But Tukorovic is a veteran goaltender, and I don't think he's going to let his team down here. The Bruins are also, get this, 13-5 in their last 18 against the Islanders in New York. I expect them to win this game here 3-1-4-2. There it is. I'm taking the Bruins here, and I'm even laying the money line. Minus 1-41.”
BOS 2-1 NYI (OT) — Boston beat the Islanders 2-1 in overtime on Brad Marchand's game-winner, so the Bruins moneyline wins (ESPN).
“BetOnline line for this one We going to roll White Sox minus one and a half plus 100 versus the Tigers Thoughts on this one, Lee? So I've talked for months about the White Sox ability to hit left-handed pitchers. They're 13 and three against them this year. But those three losses are more than they had all of last season. And two of them have come in the last few weeks. while they're regressing right now against lefties, they're starting to take off against righties. So they're seventh in Major League Baseball and batting average against righties, and they're doing a good job of masking their injuries on the offensive side. So the pitcher here for the Detroit Tigers, Casey Mize, is going to be a good pitcher in Major League Baseball. And he's already taking some nice strides, but he's still young. He's a guy I'm looking to fade against top competition this year, And I think the White Sox will jump out here on them early. They'll have an early lead. And I think they're going to be able to hold it because they have a big bullpen advantage here. A little too lock here. Chicago White Sox lay the one and a half runs.”
CHW 4-1 DET — The White Sox beat Detroit 4-1 behind Lance Lynn; the 3-run margin covers -1.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Going to roll the Suns versus Lakers under the 206.5 total points. Again, the Suns lead the series 3-2. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? So, I mean, we don't know Anthony Davis' status. I think he's playing because if he doesn't play, Hey, if he heals up in two, three, four days later, it doesn't do them any good. So the line here is pretty much their favorite by two But sometimes you gotta look for a different way to attack a game And i think the right way and the easy way to attack this game is the total so did you even notice what the total was the first game of this series i want to say it was what 214 something like that yep yep 214 right there's some places even have 214 and a half 215 now after five games it's down to 26 and a half 2-0-6-1.5, it's there for a reason. Four of the five games have been dead unders. Now we've got the pace of the game. The Lakers realize they just can't run with Phoenix. They don't have the athletes. They can't score like that. And then we're going to have intensity. It's now or never. Now, I'm not saying the Lakers are going to win for sure. I think they're going to lose this game or the next game, but I don't want to take a chance on trying to figure out which game they lose. So I think the pace and the intensity are keys here. And Lakers, they have the number one defense in the NBA for a reason. So I think they're going to lock down, slow down the game. They're going to try to make the most here of each possession. And it's this low for a reason here. I'm going under 2-0-6-1⁄2 in the Phoenix-Lakers game, level three lock.”
PHX 113-100 LAL — Devin Booker scored 47 as Phoenix eliminated the Lakers 113-100 in Game 6; the 213 combined points went over the 206.5 total (ESPN).
“We're going to roll with this one, the betonline.ag line for this one. Winnipeg Jets regulation money line plus 110 versus Montreal Break this one down for us Lee Yeah a lot of talk has been made about whether rust or rest would prevail for teams in the second round this year given that compacted regular season schedule And some of the quicker series in round one, well, you know, like Colorado, Boston, Winnipeg, were the three teams that ended their first round series quickly in the first round. What happened in the next round? Colorado, first game, they came out one game one. Boston, they came out and won game one. They won by a combined 12-3 score. So I think they answered our question about rust over rest in pretty dominant fashion. Winnipeg has had a full week off before this game, and Montreal just beat their eternal rival in game seven of their first head-to-head series in generations. So I think the highs of that series with Toronto will bring some lows in game one tonight. And I'm riding the Winnipeg Jets in regulation with those incredible odds. I'll take them here. Plus 110. Wrong team favorite. Winnipeg Jets. Regulation. Money line. Easy winner.”
MTL 5-3 WPG — Montreal beat Winnipeg 5-3 in Game 1 of their second-round series, so the Jets moneyline loses (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Clippers minus seven versus the Mavs. Give it to us, Lee. Break it down. Yeah, so I like Dallas in the first two games. I thought they had the Clippers number. I don't know what the Clippers were doing the first two games. They were absolutely sleepwalking. But now all of a sudden they found their way. Now Luka got a neck injury. And I think it's much more serious than they're letting on. so uh he was held to just 37 percent field goal shooting last game and 19 points let me say this and i and i'm telling you this bar none there is no way the mads can win if luke is not their best player right so he's got to come out uh people also they don't talk about the clippers defense I mean, they have a top 10 defense. So I just think that they're going to come to play here. I think they found their way. Also, they got some other injuries. I mean, there's some other guys for Dallas all of a sudden, you know, that aren't 100%. You know, Cleaver, he's working through an Achilles injury. Porzingis, you know, hey, I think he's a talent. but he shoots almost 59% from the floor in game four. 18 points. You've got to demand the ball a lot more if you're the guy. So I think they find their way here. I think the Clippers finally, who knows, they might end up being the favorite here. I'm laying the seven. Blowout special, blowout city. It might be over by middle of the third quarter. Give me the Clippers here, minus seven over Dallas.”
DAL 105-100 LAC — Dallas beat the Clippers 105-100 in Game 5, so LA lost outright and failed to cover -7 (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Rockies minus 101 versus the Rangers. Break this one down for us, Lee. Well the money coming in on Texas and I don understand it So Antonio Sanzola the pitcher here for the Colorado Rockies is one of these guys that has somehow mastered Coors Field He has a career ERA of five but at Coors Field he 22 He's just one and three at home this year, but he has a 435 ERA versus an ERA of, get this, a bloated 715 on the road. So the Rockies are carrying just a 303 ERA this year against teams with losing records. And the Texas Strangers, they fall right into that category. They lost seven straight here offensively. The Rockies are third in Major League Baseball and runs per game at home, but dead last on the road. So their comfort level in this spot has been very clear. And then Jordan Lyles, he's a guy, he's been put in a good position to succeed this year, but not able to do it. 31 years old. Usually guys at this age, they're probably in their prime. But they've started him on four days of rest on seven different occasions. I already thought Lyles was a good pitcher to fade this year. But this, it just makes it worse for him. He's 0-2 with a 5-74 ERA on four days of rest. And get this, he's 7-7 in his career course field with a 5-75 ERA. But five of those wins, five of the seven, all came in 2014 when he was a pitcher for the Rockies. This guy is not the same pitcher he used to be. I think he's in a spot here. He's going to get roughed up. Level one lock here. we're going with the Colorado Rockies minus 101 money line.”
COL 6-3 TEX — Colorado beat Texas 6-3 at Coors Field, so the Rockies moneyline wins (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll the Chicago Cubs money line, minus 111 versus the Padres. Thoughts on this one. It was just a couple weeks ago that everyone was wondering if Kyle Hendricks was even going to last a full season, given his start to the year. So he starts off 2021 with a 1-4 record, a 7-54 ERA. And the worst part was that he was getting banged up by bad offensive teams. I'm talking about teams like the Pirates, the Brewers without Christian Yelich. But sometimes it's just the little things that can get a pitcher like him going. Since the month of May began, he has a 4-1 record, 267 ERA, six of the 14 runs that he allowed in May came in one start against the Pirates. So now he faces up against Ryan Weathers not Carl Weathers you know of Rocky fame Ryan Weathers And don get me wrong Weathers has been good 131 ERA this year in 34 innings But he's a bullpen guy. Goes a couple innings for the Padres when they're fully healthy. So Weathers averages under four innings per game when he starts. And the problem with that is San Diego's bullpen has pitched over 15 innings in just the last three games. So sometimes people just look at that starting pitcher, and they don't look deep enough. So I think they're going to go to the bullpen early and often. You might see five, six pitchers in this game for San Diego. The Cubs are 5-0 in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage over 600, and they're 5-0 in their last five games against the NL West. So can't play teams in their division but do well against the NL West, which most people don't. So I think they will get up for another big game tonight against these Padres, and I'm riding Kyle Hendricks to continue to improve on his form. Chicago Cubs, money line, minus 111, level one lock.”
CHC 4-3 SD — The Cubs beat the Padres 4-3, so the Chicago Cubs moneyline wins (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Hurricanes money line minus 113 versus the Lightning. Thoughts on this one? So there are not a lot of situational advantages or even noteworthy trends to follow in the playoffs this time of the year. So you really have to dig deep into the previous games in a series to see if you can find an edge. In game one between Carolina and Tampa Bay, The game flow and the possession were pretty much firmly in Carolina's favor throughout. But Tampa's goalie stole the show. The Hurricanes outshot the Lightning 38-30. They had a slight advantage in terms of expected goals. And they had two more power plays than the Lightning did. But they went just one for five on the power play. And they really didn't put together a ton of shots from the high danger areas. So some Carolina players here actually credited Tampa's goaltender for his performance during the postgame interviews. But I disagree with him. I think it was Carolina's performance that was the story, not Tampa's goaltending. So I think they can do some little things, make some minor little changes. It'll make a difference if you go back and look at Carolina's offensive tendencies over the last few years. They have been one of the best in the NHL generating scoring opportunities right in front of the opposing team's net, particularly at home. Carolina's only generated six high danger chances in game one, whereas they usually average 12 of them per game in the regular season, best in the NFL. So I think they're going to make some adjustments in this game to get things going. I think they know that they can't go back to Tampa Bay down 0-2. So Carolina Hurricanes money line minus 113 level two lock”
TB 2-1 CAR — Tampa Bay beat Carolina 2-1 in Game 2 behind Andrei Vasilevskiy's 31 saves, so the Hurricanes moneyline loses (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Brooklyn minus 12.5 versus Celtics. Break this one down, Lee. So the Celtics, to win one game, when they stole game three, Jason Tatum had to score 50 points. And I think he's a superstar most of the time. And there's always a few games where he just doesn't show up, doesn't look interested. But kid's young. It's something special. But it's one on three. If this is like a WWE tag team matchup, it's over early. So Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, and James Harden, what they did in the last game, I just don't think Boston can stop. They just don't have the weapons here. So they had Brown here. I think they might be able to keep it close. but he's out for the year. And, hey, Brooklyn might have trouble with Philadelphia if we see Joel Embiid come back because Philadelphia can play defense. They have a lot of firepower. But, Boston, you sensed it from early in the season. This is just not a real good team. When they play top-level teams, they can't get it done here. Celtics, 2-7 in the last nine games against a team with a winning record, straight up one and four against the spread in their last five games um the nets how about this eight no against the spread the last eight games as a home favorite it is over lay the wood here sometimes you gotta lay it if you want to play it level three lock brooklyn nets by 20 to 25 over boston”
BKN 123-109 BOS — Brooklyn beat Boston 123-109 in Game 5 to close out the series; the 14-point margin covers the -12.5 spread (ESPN).
“The BetOnline.ag line for this one. Vegas Golden Knights, minus 175 versus the Wild. The take back for the Wild is plus 155. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so I thought going into the series, Vegas, was the right side for the series play. But Minnesota has played this series enough to make this game, in my mind, an even matchup. Maybe it should be plus 120, 125. You shouldn't be getting 155 here. Vegas in Game 7 has been an absolute disaster. and the wild wild here are a newly minted team they have spunk and you know maybe it's you know certain teams that kind of have a curse and they just tighten up and game sevens are a totally different animal this team just plays minnesota with no fear and you you just you look at the bench you look at the players you can just see the vegas uh is feeling the pressure here so So Minnesota has nothing to lose. And, you know, I might even do some endgame wagering here. If Minnesota takes a lead, I might even play them to win by two or three goals. Because if they get up like one or two nothing, Vegas just might implode. That's one great thing about endgame wagering. If you make a wager on the second half, that's why, like in football, I never will make a wager on a second half. You don't know how the first half is going to play out. There's some games you think it's going to be high scoring and it's a low scoring. You have to wager, you know, if you already have something on the second half and over and it's and it's three nothing and a quarterback goes out, you know, pretty much your wager is done here. So Minnesota Wild here plus 155 wrong team favored. This could be, you know, this could be a bet a little win a lot here. So maybe it's a combination of two things. Wrong team favored, bet a little, went a lot on the Minnesota Wild plus 155.”
VGK 6-2 MIN — Vegas eliminated Minnesota 6-2 in Game 7 behind Mattias Janmark's hat trick, so the Wild moneyline lost (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Mariners going to go team total over four runs, minus 130 versus the Rangers. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so Jordan Lyles has been and will continue to be a fade pitcher moving forward. He's given up four plus runs in his last four starts against Seattle, and he is in the area of almost seven. I don't think he's going to be pitching the majors too much longer. So the opportunity is not going to be there for a whole lot much longer. So got to take advantage of it. And, you know, he has an area of almost seven here against teams with losing records. That's what's crazy. So he given up four plus and seven of his 10 starts here overall this year Seattle Mariners they have some underrated guys in the lineup here Seattle team total over four minus 130”
Seattle beat Texas 3-2, scoring only 3 runs, which fell short of the Mariners team-total Over 4 (ESPN). (Seattle Mariners team total: 3 runs)
“The BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Mavs minus 2.5 versus the Clippers. What's your thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so I like the Mavs coming into the series. Thought they had a chance to take it. I have a wager on them, but I think this is the game that they lose here. So don't be scared away by the Clippers being the favorite. They're going to show up. They're going to win at least two games in the series. They're going to take at least one of these two here. And I think this is the game. So Dallas is just riding a streak. I mean, you've got guys like Tim Hardaway Jr. Tim Hardaway Jr. is a nice player. But he's really got to be like normally on a championship team. Let's be honest, your fourth starter. If he's with the Lakers, maybe he's the third starter with two superstars like that. And Luka and Porzingis, you know, Luka especially, he is a superstar right now. Chris and Porzingis probably slipped a little bit, but I just don't see guys like him keeping it up here. You know, they play with energy and give them credit here, but I think this is where Kawhi Leonard comes out. And I think he's just going to be too much here. I think he's going to have that monster game. This might be the game where he goes for 45 points and does it all. So unlike the Miami heat, the LA Clippers will not fold tonight. Don't be shied away. It looks like it's a trap. They're, they are setting the trap for you. They want you to play Dallas the public and the squares are going to play the Dallas Mavericks here because they fall in love with what they seen the first two games but they call it a series for a reason it not a five game series it a seven game series and Paul George and especially Kawhi Lawrence he's been there so many times before with the San Antonio Spurs and Toronto he knows what it takes to get it done Clippers here minus two and a half that number two is key because it's a level two lock”
LAC 118-108 DAL — The Clippers beat Dallas 118-108 in Game 3, a 10-point margin that covers the -2.5 spread (ESPN).
“The BetOnline.ag line for this one. Predators and Hurricanes over 5.5 plus 124. Break this one down for us, Lee. So we've talked about Nashville's crowd for a bunch, quite a few weeks now. And I went back and looked at game five between these two teams here. And they just combined for five power plays in the last game. That's it in the game the other night. So two of those came in overtime. with a crowd like that that is actually increasing the capacity played in Nashville on Sunday. And I think these refs are going to react and probably force some make-up calls here leading to man advantages. So the over has soared over in the two games played in Nashville so far with 16 combined goals in the two games there. And again, you know, just as we talked about with Pittsburgh and New York yesterday, this is an elimination game. What does that mean? If the Predators are losing in the third, they're going to push the pace and take some chances. These games have been fast paced in Nashville so far. Expect another one in game six here. We're going over, over five and a half goals plus 124.”
CAR 4-3 NSH (OT) — Carolina beat Nashville 4-3 in overtime in Game 6; the 7 combined goals cleared the Over 5.5 total (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The A's versus Angels over 7.5 runs, minus 115. Break this one down for us. Okay, so we've got two pretty good pitchers here. Bassett for Oakland and Otani for the Angels. And I'm not passing up a chance to watch Otani hit and pitch. Love it. So Chris Bassett has had an odd season. He leads the A's in ERA, 369. But he's 0-2 with a 4-0-7 ERA at home this year. He's also coming off three straight road starts. So he hasn't started at home since the first week in May. He's a big rhythm guy. And I think that long road trip for him could cause some problems. Otani, on the other hand, has pitched well. but he hasn't lasted long in games that he starts. He's only had one game where he's gone past five innings. He's been dealing with some shoulder soreness as well, and that could expose the Angels bullpen that is a bottom five bullpen here. So I think we're going to have a 4-4-5 game here going into the late innings. For that reason, over 7.5 minus 115. The public is going to be playing the under here. They see a premier pitcher here. That's for the Joes, the pros. They'll be on the over here, over 7.5 minus 115 blowout special.”
OAK 5-0 LAA — Chris Bassitt threw a two-hitter as Oakland beat the Angels 5-0; the 5 combined runs fell short of the Over 7.5 total (ESPN).
“Milwaukee minus one and a half versus Miami. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so I felt after the first game, both teams didn't play well. Everyone was talking about Jimmy Butler. You know, he's four for 21. Bam, four for 15. But the Bucks had made just five of 31. That's one reason, you know, I was I was afraid. A lot of the public was on Miami in game two, figuring, hey, they're getting four and a half points again. They'll do that. But, hey, this Milwaukee team came to play 10 three-point shots they made in the first period. It was over. I mean, you could have turned it off maybe with four or five minutes into the game. It was that just dominating a performance. Great defensive strategy by the Milwaukee Bucks coaching staff, putting the Greek freak on Jimmy Butler. It's giving him problems. But now it comes back to Miami. Now Miami's going to do some strategy and planning. From what I'm hearing, they're going to go with Bam and Dwayne Dedman. What a pickup. This guy wasn't even playing until about a month before the end of the season. So they're going to pair those two big guys together, I think, some tonight. I think it's going to shock Milwaukee. I think the hype is going to give them some problem here. And, you know, guys like Holiday, Middleton, Forbes, and Fortis are going to be a little bit tougher. Miami's three-point defense is awful. I love the Miami coaching staff here. Playing at home down 0-2, getting a point and a half. Are you kidding me? It'll be Jimmy Buckets scoring buckets, stealing the ball, dishing the ball. Level three lock in the 3-0-5.”
MIL 113-84 MIA — Milwaukee blew out Miami 113-84 in Game 2; Miami lost outright and failed to cover +1.5 (ESPN).
“BetOnline line for this one The Lakers minus six and a half versus Phoenix. Break this one down for me, Lee. The Suns are not a good road team. Won three and one against the spread the last five road games. They will probably have to make some changes to point guard. And you could see it on Monte Williams' face. You know, when he was forced to play Cameron Payne and nothing against Cameron Payne, nice backup, but he had to play the majority of the game. And Chris Paul's limited. You can just see it on his face, his expressions. You're not playing Chris Paul 20 to 25 minutes in a game if he's 100 percent or even 90 percent. So I think he's about 70, 75 percent. They need him close to 100 percent. And let me tell you something. Anthony Davis looks like he's 90, 95 percent. And LeBron James put on a clinic in the last three to four minutes of the game. That was vintage LeBron here. I think mentally they've taken over this series. I think physically they've taken over this series. The only good thing going for Phoenix and my daughter pointed this out, a little little pop culture going on. She goes, the only basketball player that's doing well after dating a Kardashian past, present or future. Devin Booker. So Devin Booker looked great. He seems to be immune to the Kardashian curse. But I just think you're going to see Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond dominating inside. And without Chris Paul, 100 percent LeBron looking like his old self. Give me the Lakers here. Minus six and a half. I'll give you one more. You know what? I'm going to make this another lock. We're having fun with the locks. Let's make this a level two lock.”
LAL 109-95 PHX — The Lakers beat Phoenix 109-95 in Game 3, a 14-point margin that covers the -6.5 spread (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll the Rays minus one and a half runs, minus 103 versus the Royals. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, classic case of two teams moving in different directions. Royals started off, they're one of the hottest teams in baseball, believe it or not, but since May, just 7-14, last 21 games. Five of those seven wins came against teams currently out of the playoff race. What have the Rays done since the Royals hit that cold streak? Well, they're 17-5 with an average of 5.95 runs per game, which is best in the majors. Two other things I really like about the spot here for Tampa. They're coming off a loss in the series against Kansas City when a good team like Tampa loses a game to break a winning streak like that. I typically like to bet on them in the next game. And Kansas City here starts left-hander Mike Miner in this one. The Rays have struggled against left-handed pitching to start the year, but things change. So you've got to pay attention. They are seventh in Major League Baseball in the last 15 days in batting average against lefties. They're 5-0 in the last five games against left-handed starters. And I think Tyler Glass now should have a good day here against a team that's struggling to score runs of late. And I think the Rays bullpen should have no problem shutting this one down here. Tampa Bay, minus one and a half runs, minus 103, level one lock.”
TB 2, KC 1 — Tampa Bay beat Kansas City 2-1 in 10 innings, a 1-run margin that fell short of the -1.5 spread (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Knicks minus two versus the Hawks. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Well, that Gordon, we talked about it on the show earlier this week, was rocking until the game-winning runner that Trey Young hit. So what's interesting about that game, and I watched it again, they ran late in the game. They were down four points, was Atlanta. They ran the same straight play, three straight possessions, and they ended up getting three straight baskets. On the first one, they threw a lob to Capella. The second one hit Bogdanovich in the corner for a three. And then Trey, he ends up behind the back and hits Hunter, and he pops a three. If I'm Tom Thibodeau, and trust me, he's a really good coach, he's showing them that play. And they're like, listen, we were up four. We had three bad defensive possessions. And I think they have now enough. They realize what they do, Atlanta well enough. and Trey Young's going to have to have another big game. He scored 32 points in that game. He had 10 assists. Capella had 13 boards. So unless he can do it again, I don't see it. And I think he's going to tell his two studs, Randall and Barrett, drive to the hoop. These two guys average six and almost four free throw attempts per game. What did they have in the first game? Just two. Two each. That's it. So they need to drive to the basketball. more. I think that they just going to match up better after they seen them once And Knicks are 13 against the spread The last 17 games is a home favorite Just one minor glitch here. And the Hawks, they're 1-4 the last five road games. They're not historically a good road team. Small spot, lay the two, and it's a level two lock.”
NYK 101, ATL 92 — New York beat Atlanta 101-92, covering the -2 spread by seven points (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag, live for this one. Islanders team total over two and a half, minus 125 versus the Penguins. Break this one down, Lee. Well, I've talked to you so many times. When I put out a level three lock, there's a lot of layers. Now, the average person is going to look at this game and they're going to say, hey, I watched the last two games. And the better team was the Penguins. But boy, did the goalie for the Penguins have some rough road games. Trist and Jerry, he just – the more the Penguins dominated the shots on net and the offensive zone possession, the worse he played. So the Penguins outshot the Islanders, get this, 80-54 in the last two games, including a 50-28 shots on that advantage in game four the other night. But Barry Trotz, the head coach for the Islanders loves to play games like this So Trotz what he does he tells his team clog up the neutral zone They will frustrate offensively teams like the Penguins And then he takes advantage on the counterattack You can see how well it works on teams like Pittsburgh because his offense only needs a handful of chances to capitalize. So it's working so well for the Islanders in the series that they're averaging 3.2 goals per game so far in the postseason. They've scored three or more in four of the last five games in this series. And I think they continue to play their style of play in front of their home crowd. And the best part about this one is that it's an elimination game for the Penguins. What does that mean? That they're going to try to push the pace here and force those risky plays even more. So it also means that if we have a 2-0 or 2-1 game in the third period, The Penguins are going to have to pull their goalie with three or four minutes left in the game. So I'm going to place a three-unit wager here, three-level lock on the Islanders team total over two and a half minus 125. And then also you can do in-game live wagering. You know, it's something we don't talk about a whole lot. I'm going to watch this game and probably going to place a wager on the third period. I'm going to give you one more here. Third period over one and a half, which should be available on bed online sometime in the second intermission. So we're going to give you a level three lock New York Islanders team total over two and a half minus one 25. And we're going to hand you one more third period over one and a half goals in the same game, the Islanders and Penguins”
NYI 5, PIT 3 — The Islanders beat Pittsburgh 5-3 to close out the series, so New York's team total of 5 goals cleared the 2.5-goal over (ESPN). (Islanders team total: 5)
“BetOnline.ag, live for this one. Islanders team total over two and a half, minus 125 versus the Penguins. Break this one down, Lee. Well, I've talked to you so many times. When I put out a level three lock, there's a lot of layers. Now, the average person is going to look at this game and they're going to say, hey, I watched the last two games. And the better team was the Penguins. But boy, did the goalie for the Penguins have some rough road games. Trist and Jerry, he just – the more the Penguins dominated the shots on net and the offensive zone possession, the worse he played. So the Penguins outshot the Islanders, get this, 80-54 in the last two games, including a 50-28 shots on that advantage in game four the other night. But Barry Trotz, the head coach for the Islanders loves to play games like this So Trotz what he does he tells his team clog up the neutral zone They will frustrate offensively teams like the Penguins And then he takes advantage on the counterattack You can see how well it works on teams like Pittsburgh because his offense only needs a handful of chances to capitalize. So it's working so well for the Islanders in the series that they're averaging 3.2 goals per game so far in the postseason. They've scored three or more in four of the last five games in this series. And I think they continue to play their style of play in front of their home crowd. And the best part about this one is that it's an elimination game for the Penguins. What does that mean? That they're going to try to push the pace here and force those risky plays even more. So it also means that if we have a 2-0 or 2-1 game in the third period, The Penguins are going to have to pull their goalie with three or four minutes left in the game. So I'm going to place a three-unit wager here, three-level lock on the Islanders team total over two and a half minus 125. And then also you can do in-game live wagering. You know, it's something we don't talk about a whole lot. I'm going to watch this game and probably going to place a wager on the third period. I'm going to give you one more here. Third period over one and a half, which should be available on bed online sometime in the second intermission. So we're going to give you a level three lock New York Islanders team total over two and a half minus one 25. And we're going to hand you one more third period over one and a half goals in the same game, the Islanders and Penguins”
The Islanders and Penguins played a scoreless third period (Pittsburgh 0, Islanders 0), staying under the 1.5-goal over (ESPN). (3P: PIT 0, NYI 0)
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Clippers minus seven versus Dallas. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So the Clippers have Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. the rest of the guys they have and it's not like leonard seems that interested this year george had his run now he's reverting back to what he was early in the season we're just seeing a lot of guys on the back side of the career i'm not talking about the back side we're talking about uh this is like hole 18 hole 19 if you're referring to golf so i'm just not seeing it i think dallas is hungry they're playing really well i saw them a couple weeks ago miami and they play with a lot of confidence. You know, guys will mostly point to Leonard and they'll point to George, but hey, Luke and Porzingis, they might be as good as those two guys. And then the supporting cast, you've got Tim Hardaway Jr. I mean, the list goes on and on. These guys just are playing with a lot of confidence. Yeah, they shot 47% from three-point land in that first game where they won by 10 points, but it might only need to shoot 40 42 percent uh to win this game or to keep it close you're getting seven points are you kidding me wouldn't shock me if dallas pulls off the stunner and goes back to big d up to nothing i'm taking the dallas mavericks plus seven wrong team favorite they might even win it outright”
DAL 127, LAC 121 — Dallas beat the Clippers 127-121 outright behind Luka Doncic, easily covering the +7 spread (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll the Hurricanes regulation money line, minus 135 versus the Predators. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so I don't think there's been a series in this postseason that been affected by the home ice advantage more than the Hurricanes and Predators series Both arenas are allowing over 12 fans to attend each game Both arenas actually look like they at 100 capacity when you watch the games on TV. Carolina fans were waving white towels and blowing sirens in games one and two. The Tennessee Titans left tackle Taylor LeJuan. Did you see him in the stands? Yeah, he was having a good old time. whipping his shirt off, chugging beers in the stands for both games three and four. Now it's back to Raleigh. And all of a sudden, series is tied up 2-2. Nashville won consecutive games in double overtime to even things up. But we've been saying this for weeks now. The Predators team lives and dies by the home crowd. They've fed off it at home so far in the series. But the games have been very different in Carolina. I think the Hurricanes are the better teams. here in game three and four. And I just think that just a couple breaks, one against them in those games. I think the better team wins tonight. And I just don't think it's going to go to overtime. So for that reason, we're going to play the Carolina Hurricanes, not money line, regulation money line. They need to win the game in regulation 2-1, 3-2. But I'm predicting a 4-2 score here. Regulation money line, minus 135.”
Carolina and Nashville were tied 2-2 at the end of regulation before Carolina won 3-2 in overtime, so Carolina's regulation moneyline lost (ESPN). (Regulation: CAR 2, NSH 2)
“BetOnline.ag line. We're going to roll Cardinals money line plus 127 versus the White Sox. Thoughts on this one, Lee? If the game was only in St. Louis, we would have the perfect setup. I mean, he coached here for so many years. So I think this line is a mistake. Jack Floretti is the Cardinals starter here tonight and is nine starts this year. A lot of people don't realize this. You know, people just think about the name pitchers. Not only are the Cardinals 9-0, but they've won all nine starts by two or more runs every single game that he's appeared. He 4 on the road with a 349 race so far And he pitched six innings or more which doesn happen all that often like it used to in all but one start and that was his very first start of the year so he also four and two in interleague games very important uh some pitchers pitch great uh you know when they're in their division and they're you know in their league but interdivision totally different animal uh and uh How about this for run support? 8.8 runs per game. This team's offense is supplying him. On the other side, Lucas Galata for the White Sox been up and down this year. He has just a 3.6 ERA, which is pretty good, but he's 0-3 at home. He's also 0-2 with a 540 ERA against teams with winning records. So Cardinals are a healthier team right now, better bullpen thus far, 2021. and I think they're going to jump on on them early here and I think they're going to run away with this one St. Louis Cardinals money line plus 127 level 2 lock”
CHW 8, STL 3 — The White Sox beat the Cardinals 8-3, so St. Louis' moneyline lost (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Denver is minus one and a half versus Portland. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so I think Joe Gage deserves to be the MVP. and the only way they have any chance he's going to have to play better than he's even played this year if they want to have a chance in this series why do i say that he is missing the top three guards on this team no jamal murray out for the year no will barton for this game no pj dozier so who is going to have to cover maybe one of the best backcourts we've seen in ages and damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Facundo Campazo is starting. Austin Crimey Rivers, who comes off the bench and usually plays 15, 18, maybe 20 minutes. Those are your two starters at guard. And then coming off the bench, Marcus Howard. Are you kidding me? I mean, he's a 13, 14, 15, 16th, 17th, or an 18th guy on your roster. Those three guys can't play enough defense. They only scored 21 points. I just don't see it happening. I mean, this is a bad, bad, bad matchup here. I think that Portland's going to keep running away and hiding here. They're one of the best three-point shooting teams in the NBA, 39.9%. Michael Porter and Aaron Gordon. These guys are going to have to step up. Aaron Gordon is just after he was traded, he had a couple games right off the bat where it looked like he might be a nice third option. He's like a seventh option now when he's playing. Give me Portland here. They win this game. One and a half points They should be favored by five or six points Wrong team favored in this game Wrong team is favored in the series”
DEN 128, POR 109 — Denver beat Portland 128-109, a 19-point margin that busted Portland's +1.5 spread (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line. Brewers Moneyline minus 116 versus the Padres. Give us your thoughts on this one, Lee. Where'd you get that nickname? I didn't hit with the Slam Diego Padres. I mean, they only hit Grand Slams all the time. Yeah. Did you make it up? No, no, that's their thing. They've been saying that for a little while now. Okay. All right. So Blake Snell, for all his heroics and storylines the last few years, is actually a guy I'm going to be fading this year against top competition. He does have a solid ERA, 379, but his expected ERA, and this is very important, this is when data, you get enough data this time of the year, and this is when all my systems and my analytics kick in. His expected ERA is up to 435 right now. So the balls that batters have hit in play off of him, they should start producing more often. So he's also made it through six innings just one time this year. When was it? His last start. Brandon Woodruff on the other side of the bump here has been phenomenal. One 58 ERA, and he's probably the favorite for the NL Cy Young at this point. Most people don't even know who this guy is. You know, if you mention who the top five pitchers are, they wouldn't put him up there, but he's that good. I think both the bullpens are pretty even, but the Brewers have won six of the last seven against the Padres. Christian Yelich starting to round into form. This could be the series where he has like two or three home runs in a series. And the Padres have had to travel all the way from San Diego to Milwaukee for this one. I like the Brewers here in a low-scoring game. Give me Milwaukee Brewers money line, minus 116.”
MIL 5, SD 3 — Milwaukee beat San Diego 5-3, ending the Padres' nine-game winning streak, so the Brewers' moneyline won (ESPN).
“We're going to roll with the Oilers. First period. Money line. Minus 115. Go ahead and break that. Explain that one to us, Lee. All right, so we have a rare matchup of two teams on back-to-back nights. Not every other night, back-to-back nights in the NHL playoffs tonight. So usually you get the one night off before playing again, but the Canadian division is playing games on back-to-back nights tonight, and the Oilers are on the brink of elimination. They were favored in this series. The big storyline of the series so far was Connor McDavid struggling offensively, and he broke out a bit last night. The Oilers still blew a 4-1 lead in the third period to go down 3-0 in the series. But I think it was big for their offense. You also have to consider how these teams do on back-to-back games recently. Edmonton, 7-3, last 10 on back-to-back games on the back end. And Winnipeg, just 3-7 the last 10. The Oilers know that their season's on the line tonight. I think they'll be flying out, buzzing out of the gate to try to salvage at least one game here. So we're going to take Edmonton Oilers first period money line minus 115 level one lock.”
Winnipeg led Edmonton 2-1 after the first period (en route to a 3OT series-clinching win), so Edmonton's first-period moneyline lost (ESPN). (1P: WPG 2, EDM 1)
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. White Sox versus Yankees over eight runs, minus 119. Break this down for us, Lee. Yeah, and this is a game that just lays out perfectly. This is another left-handed pitcher matchup for the Chicago White Sox. We've talked about it many times, in fact, for a few weeks now. But the White Sox love to hit against lefty pitchers. Jordan Montgomery takes the bump. for the Yankees. And if you go back and look at his start so far this year, he has faced maybe, I'm saying it's maybe one good lineup. And that's, he's faced Baltimore three times, Tampa three times, Cleveland once. And then, like I said, maybe the Astros are that one good lineup. So on the other end of things, Carlos Rodin, Rodin is a guy that has to face It's a Yankees lineup that seems to have found its groove. They've scored four more runs in four of the last five home games, and they're starting to get lefties as well. I think this one ends something like 7-3, 7-4, final one way or the other. Sometimes it's better to attack the total than the game over eight runs. It could be over eight runs by the sixth, seventh inning.”
NYY 2, CHW 1 — The Yankees beat the White Sox 2-1 on a triple play; the combined 3 runs fell well short of the 8-run over (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for Nashville versus Carolina. We're going to roll the Predators money line plus 119 versus the Hurricanes. What's your thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so the line opened up plus 126 last night. It's moved all the way down if you want to take Nashville to plus 119. I don't talk about line movement that much, but it is important to find out sometimes if you see all of a sudden 75% or more of the people betting. And you can check a bunch of sites that track it. You can see the percentage of people that are betting one side or the other. And some people will say, hey, if a lot of people are betting one side, they're on the sharp side. But what I found, I talked to an offshore bookmaker. He said, listen, there's a lot of people betting Carolina, but all the sharp money, all the big bets are coming in on the Nashville Predators. So we have 82% of the people betting on Carolina. So you would think the line would go from minus, you know, 135, minus 140 up to maybe minus 150, minus 160. It's going the other way because sharp action and sharp action. We're talking about betters who they respect betters who have a winning long-term record are playing on national. So the big bets are coming in on national. And if you're on national, I think you're going to be on the sharp side here. There's no question that national is outmatched in terms of talent, similar to Florida versus Tampa Bay. But I thought they played pretty well in game two and Carolina. They kept it a one-goal game until the very end. They were also really hurt by the power play. They went 0-7 in that game, the power play. Now they're playing at home in front of their home crowd, and Bridgestone Arena has the highest capacity here of any arena in the NHL playoffs right now. They're allowing 13,000 fans to be at the game. A tough place to play. A lot of people, you know, you talk about other teams. History-wise, you think of other teams, but when they had their runs the last few years in the playoffs, they did it at home. So it gets pretty loud in there, and the Predators will essentially be playing for their season. You remember that we gave the Predators out a few days ago at home against these Hurricanes. I think they'd do it again and steal one at home tonight. Wrong team favored. Nashville Predators plus 119. They win it outright.”
NSH 5, CAR 4 — Nashville beat Carolina 5-4 in double overtime to tie the series 2-2, so the Predators' moneyline won (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag live for the UFC main event fight night is Font minus 113 versus No Love. Break that down for us, Lee. Okay, so Font, here's another case we talked about, line movement. It started at 105, if you wanted Font. Now it's up to 113. Why? A lot of people are betting Cody Garbrandt. He's more of a name fighter. People know Cody Garbrandt because he's had some big fights. And, you know, Cody Garbrandt is a guy that is a knockout puncher, big-time power. But he took some real significant strikes and losses to Pedro Munoz and twice to TJ Dillashaw. But even though Garbrandt can dish it out, I think he's got a suspect chin. Rob Font, not real well known, but he comes from a group they call themselves the New England Cartel, trained with guys like Calvin Cater, really tough. He has never been knocked out. Let me repeat that again. Why is this important? Cody Garbrandt's a guy that knocks you out. That's how he wins. Rob Font has never been knocked out, and he destroyed Marlon Mariah in his last fight. He's 33, but some guys between 32 and 34, they're actually getting better here. This is a battle of matchups here. And Garbrandt, I don't think he can knock out Font. Also a three-round fight. Give me Font. He's got more tools in the toolbox. Rob Font, minus 113. Give me one more winner.”
Rob Font defeated Cody Garbrandt by unanimous decision (48-47, 50-45, 50-45) at UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt, so Font's moneyline won (Wikipedia event results page). (Font def. Garbrandt, unanimous decision (48-47, 50-45, 50-45))
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Golden State minus four and a half versus the Grizzlies. Thoughts on this one, Lee? I think it's going to be a tight game. Unlike last night, I think we're looking at a game that will be decided by one or two possessions. I think that mentally, this is a tough game for Golden State to get back up. I mean, they had that game. Just too many turnovers. At the end, it was Steph Curry pretty much against the Lakers. And I think they're going to be going up against a young team that, you know, I think they got over the hump. I think, you know, winning against San Antonio, even though it was close, showed that they can get it done. And sometimes those pressure moments, doesn't pay off in the first game, pays off in the second game. I love John Moran. I think he is a superstar. Didn't play especially well first game, even though he scored 20 points in the play-in game. He's 8 for 20 from the field, just 2 for 5 from three-point land. I think he's going to have a big game. I think he's going to be the difference maker here. I just don't think that Golden State defensively can stop him from getting to the hole. So I like Memphis, and I think they'll also shoot better from the free throw line. I mean, down the stretch, they were awful. Total 13 for 24. So as long as they don't choke here, I think Memphis is the right side, plus four and a half.”
MEM 117, GSW 112 (OT) — Memphis beat Golden State 117-112 in overtime of the play-in game, winning outright as a 4.5-point underdog (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Braves, team total over four and a half runs, minus 130 versus the Pirates. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so sometimes it's best you just keep it simple. Will Crow starts tonight for Pittsburgh. and simply put, Will Crow is not a major league level pitcher yet. He might be someday, but not now. He has a 652 career ERA, and that jumps to 763 on the road. He has a 720 ERA in his career against teams with a winning record, and he has 11.57 ERA in his career against the Braves. He also has a 945 ERA in his career in three night games, and he has an expected ERA, a full point higher than his current ERA this year. So the Braves won last night on a walk-off to break a three-game losing streak. And what's funny about Atlanta so far this year is that every time they have snapped a losing streak like that, they have followed it up with a win in the next game as well. So, in other words, we have one standalone win thus far in 2021 as they have followed up with a victory well so far. So Atlanta's averaging 7.3 runs per game in the last six against Pittsburgh at home. And they get the Pirates bullpen, which has had to pitch an almost entire game last night because their starter went down early with an injury. Atlanta, they're going to put up seven or eight runs here. Team total over 4.5 minus 130.”
PIT 6, ATL 4 — Pittsburgh beat Atlanta 6-4 in 10 innings; the Braves' team total of 4 runs fell short of the 4.5-run over (ESPN). (Atlanta team total: 4)
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. We're going to roll Islanders money line, minus 116 versus the Penguins. Break this one down for us, Lee. Wow, I just love playoff hockey. This is one of the greatest years we've ever seen in the playoffs. So far I was watching that Washington game last night That was amazing I mean their game that game you talk about being tight It was so much great two-way action between Washington and Boston. I don't think we're going to see that here, though. Sometimes when you look at the matchups, just favors one team. And this feels like a big spot here for the Islanders. I think they're going to steal a game. I think Pittsburgh's goaltending let them down in game one, while the Islanders' goaltending let them down in game two. But let's not forget here. The Penguins are 4-12 in the last 16 postseason games, dating back to April of 2018, and are 1-6 on the road in that span. So the goalie here for the Islanders has been top three in the NHL at home this year, but gave up one of the worst goals we'll ever see in game two. So I think he is in a good spot to rebound tonight. I also think the Islanders are happy with splitting the first two in Pittsburgh because they're getting a large amount of fans back for Game 3. You have to factor in that. I was watching the Florida game, and that first game with home fans was something to behold. It almost carried them to a win. Governor Cuomo announced that they can host 50% capacity for their home games now. So the Islanders also dominated most of the game, too, in terms of high danger chances and quality of chances. But the Penguins have historically been hard to come back and beat in Pittsburgh. So they realize they probably need to win both of these games. And also the Islanders captain, Matt Barzell, has not done much offensively. And I think he's a much better player here at home in his career. So you're looking for a player maybe to ride in some prop bets. He's a guy here, especially in the playoffs. This team really feeds off his home crowd here in the playoffs, and they missed that in the bubble last year. So I think this one is the Islanders to lose. New York Islanders, money line, minus 116 over Pittsburgh, level three lock.”
PIT 5, NYI 4 — Pittsburgh beat the Islanders 5-4 in Game 3, so the Islanders' moneyline lost (ESPN).
“We're going to roll with this one, betonline.ag line. Red Sox versus the Blue Jays. Under 10 runs, minus 115. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, really important as a gambler, you have to forget your losses. You have to figure out why you lost the game. A lot of people, when they win, they'll be like, great. I always figure out why I won and why I lost. And I'll be the first to admit, I thought Garrett Richards, he was going to be a dud, I thought, for the Red Sox. He looked horrible in spring training and got hit pretty hard in the season debut. So most people, it's like the NFL. They see a team that doesn't look good, opening week, they get blasted, and they just go against them sometimes six, seven, eight weeks, and you pay the price. But since then, he's given up just 12 runs in 40 innings. His ERA is down to .389. He's also .2-0 with a .248 ERA in the road so far. And he has just a .255 ERA against teams with winning records. He's coming off six shutout innings against a very good Oakland offense, your Oakland A's offense. And he's facing a Toronto team today that is still without some of their top hitters, including George Springer. So Ross Stripling starts for the Blue Jays. And he's struggled this year, but tonight is a good night for him to hold his own against the Boston offense. He's giving up by far the highest fly ball rate of his career this year at 33.8%. His career average, just 22% here. So wind blowing in from left field at almost 20 miles per hour It a short wall Remember the Blue Jays are playing in Dunedin Florida field this year But can ignore 20 miles per hour blowing in And the under 13 the last 18 meetings here between these two And it's also 7-0 in the Red Sox' last seven games against a right-handed starting pitcher. I think we're going to see a 4-3 game here. Not sure who wins it. So let's go under. Under 10, minus 115.”
BOS 7, TOR 3 — Red Sox beat Blue Jays 7-3 (combined 10 runs); Under 10 pushes exactly on the total (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Memphis minus four versus San Antonio. Thoughts on this one, Lee? I don't think you're going to see a close game here either, Q. So Memphis has a top ten defense. Has an improved offense. Big advantage here on the boards. I just think they're going to dominate a team that's not willing to get in there and get dirty. This is not your normal San Antonio team. I think DeMar DeRozan's going to have to have 30-plus points just to keep it close. Memphis 20-8 the last 28 games following a straight-up loss by more than double digits. So they seem to bounce back real quick. And San Antonio, they just don't have the firepower. They just allow too many easy buckets. And how about this? two and five here the last seven games versus teams with a winning record i think memphis i think their time has come i think they got a a young lineup that's hungry and i think san antonio is just not i just think they're just not talented and they're not willing to get in there and get dirty here i'm laying the four blowout special blowout city it'll be over early it'll be over probably even before halftime memphis minus four over san antonio”
MEM 100, SA 96 — Memphis Grizzlies beat San Antonio Spurs 100-96 in the play-in game, a margin of exactly +4, pushing against the -4 spread (ESPN).
“We're going to roll with this one, betonline.ag line. The Rangers versus Yankees over eight and a half runs, minus 125. Go on and break this one down for us, Lee. All right, Corey Kluver gets his rematch with his former team yet again tonight. But this year hasn't exactly been the revenge tour that he had hoped for. He has been very up and down. starting off poorly, then making a couple of strong starts in a row, and then getting hit pretty hard by the Orioles of all teams in his last start. So he has just a .348 ERA. He's usually in the low to mid twos. But 13 of the 19 runs he's allowed have come on the road in just four starts. And two of those starts came against the abysmal Orioles offense. So he has a 521 ERA away from Yankee Stadium this year, and he's pitching tonight on four days rest. So you've got to take advantage of it. You've got to chart these things, which I think it's going to take a toll on a pitcher, especially a little bit older. So the Yankees will be ready to score because the Rangers here are throwing a Korean League left for just his second Major League Baseball start in his career The Yankees have hit lefties much better in the last couple weeks. The over is 4-1 in the Rangers' last five home games, and it's 5-1 in the Yankees' last six games. So two banged up bullpens. It's not going to be just a regular over game. This might be July 4th, come early here. I wouldn't be shocked if we see a 13-7, 13-8 game. Wow, fireworks early. I like it. I like it. All right, with the fireworks coming early, what level lock are we going with? Well, we've been rolling with these level two locks. I think we've won like four or five straight. Let's go with a level two lock here. There it is right there. Level two lock.”
NYY 2, TEX 0 — Corey Kluber threw a no-hitter as the Yankees beat the Rangers 2-0; the combined 2 runs came in well under the 8.5 total (ESPN).
“The betonline.ag line for this one. The Golden Knights versus the Wild A draw after regulation plus 325 is how we rolling with this one Break it on down for us Lee Yeah after game one on Sunday afternoon three of the Vegas Knights last four postseason games have gone to overtime And now four of the last seven games so far in postseason in the NHL have gone to overtime. Cam Talbot and Marc-Andre Fleury played out of their damn minds on Sunday night. with all the advanced stats that float around, especially in the NHL nowadays, they were 4.75 expected goals in game one between these two teams. And it ended in a 1-0 overtime win for Minnesota. These are two of the most defensive-minded teams in postseason, and the goalies are just standing on their heads. It's absolutely crazy, some of the stops. So I wouldn't be surprised if we see another 0-0 or 1-1 game going into overtime tonight. Bet a little. You can bet a little as $100 and win $325 on a draw. That's the bet a little win a lot today.”
3-1 — Vegas led Minnesota 3-1 after regulation before winning 3-1; the game was not tied after 60 minutes, so the draw-after-regulation bet lost (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Boston minus two and a half versus Washington. Break this one down for us, Lee. Well, I'm going to roll with your guy here, kid. I'm rolling with Russell Westbrook. He burned me a couple times. I learned my lesson. That's the key to gambling. And I have nothing against Russell Westbrook. I love watching him. Just didn't think that he could play Superman, Batman, who knows what else Marvel comic character. He's doing it all. But he may not need it all because Boston's without Jalen Brown. How big is Jalen Brown? I don't know if we've seen too many other Robins here. I'm talking about the Batman-Robin type combo. He's the number two option, but he averages 24.7 points, six rebounds, and three and a half assists, and even 1.2 steals per game. So here's a guy that could be a lead, a number one on any team. They have not been the same without him. I think Brad Stevens is either leaving this year or next year. Don't be surprised. We hear something offseason. I thought he was going to be an incredible coach. He's just turned out to be above average, started strong. This is eighth year already. It seems like time has just flown by. They just not buying in here Bradley Beal is coming back He played in the regular season final Not a hundred percent but I think he he be able to play at a high enough level and manage his hamstring injury That's been lingering for a while, a couple of days off helped him. And, uh, uh, who's the guy, who's the underrated guy? Most people don't talk about. Here's a guy, Japanese player, play the gonzaga uh 2019 draft number one pick ninth pick overall small forward small you know power forward combo guy does it all scores rebounds plays defense just gets overlooked because of beal and westbrook i think their three is better than anything boston has boston's got to have almost all their complementary players like marcus smart he's probably got to score 18 20 He's probably got to, you know, play amazing defense. He's got to do everything, all these other guys, and I just don't see it happening here. I think Boston's pretty much given up on the year. Washington may not go much farther after winning this game, but give me Washington, plus two and a half, wrong team favored. Washington wins over Boston tonight in the NBA playing game.”
118-100 — Celtics beat Wizards 118-100; Washington lost by 18, failing to cover the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Tampa Bay money line minus 110 versus Florida. Break this one down for us, Lee. So I think regardless who is in the net here for Florida, the game belongs to the Lightning. It looks like Drieger is going to replace Pobrowski for the Panthers. Pobrowski didn't do anything wrong that cost him the game. It's just that Tampa Bay was just too talented. So they're able to set up on power plays where Florida can't. We thought Pobrowski here would be on a short leash. and it looks like they're going to make the change. So I still do think Tampa takes this one and goes home with a 2-0 lead. The game that Florida needed was game one. I mean, the crowd was electric. They had their chance. I think there was like 11 minutes to go in the game, took a key penalty, and that player also is going to be suspended for this game. So that's a key loss here. And we saw it on Sunday night with all the lead changes, and now it looks like they go to a different goalie, and Drigger's good. But, you know, he's got a great back story here playing in the NHL in 2014 and 15 before playing in a few other leagues. But let's not forget that he's making his playoff debut against the Stanley Cup champions in Nikita Kucherov. So Tampa, he wasn't rusty. He had not played a game all season. In game one, he has three points. Tampa Bay probably even could have played better. So I think Florida exposes their goaltenders too much in this series. They have to. They just, that's the only way they can score here. They got to take chances. And I think the Lightning take game too, just too talented. There you go right there. That is the blowout special. Tampa Bay Lightning, Moneyline minus 110 versus Florida.”
3-1 — Lightning beat Panthers 3-1; Tampa Bay's moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Cardinals versus Pirates. We're going to roll with under 7.5 plus 100. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, and I've talked about this so many times. There's so many different ways you can play games. We played a hockey game today that will end in a draw after regulation. I'm not looking at the game here. I'm looking at the total. So John Gant faces JT Brubaker tonight in what feels like a snooze fest for both teams. St. Louis just had an up-and-down road trip that included a sweep of losses to the Padres, and that last game was on Sunday Night Baseball. And you watch Sunday Night Baseball a lot like I do, and you'll see a lot with those teams. What they do is they play under the lights, national TV coverage, and then they come out the next game. It's a bit of a letdown. So the Cardinals have only scored 13 runs in five games to wrap it up on that road trip, and it's not like it's going to get easier tonight. JT Brubaker is one of the very few bright spots for the Pirates this year, 258 ERA. He's in the 85th percentile among all Major League pitchers in chase rate, getting guys to swing at pitches out of the strike zone. His career ERA on the road, just 298. John Gant for the Cardinals has just a 183 ERA this year. And the under is 4-0 in the last four home starts for him. Pittsburgh Pirates offense has also scored two or fewer runs. And we talked about their anemic offense in 10 of the last 14 games. I like the under here a lot here. Level 2 lock. We like these level 2 locks. We've been riding them and winning. Level 2 lock under 7.5 plus 100 St. Louis and Pittsburgh tonight.”
5-2 — Cardinals beat Pirates 5-2; the combined 7 runs stay under the 7.5 total (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Bruins money line, minus 130 versus the Capitals. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so, you know, we've talked many times about liking a game. And you can look at any game. And you can come up with some stats that support either side of the game. The more stats and the more facts that you have are going to usually lead you to a winner. So the Boston Bruins have been the most disappointing team among the 10 teams that played opening two nights. Why do I say that? They were down early against an injured Washington team, and they had chances to come back and win the game when Washington's number one goalie went down with an injury. Washington's number two goalie, he is out right now. So who's their goalie? Craig Anderson, third stringer. So you remember that name. He's been around forever. This guy is basically Ryan Fitzpatrick for NFL fans. 40 years old, been among all goalies, the leaders who have played 15 playoff games or more. He ranks fourth all time in save percentage, but he's 40 years old. He has not played at the NHL level in several years. I think tonight should catch up with him. The Bruins have lost consecutive games just once since early April, and they now know they can't go back to Boston down 0-2, especially against the third-string goalie. So the Bruins' top line, it's called the perfection line. They combined for just seven shots on the net in game one with one point. They're going to have to come out in this one and dominate possession, I think, and scoring chances the way they did all season. Boston should push against Anderson here And I just think that with more urgency I just think that they going to come up with a better result So we taking Boston here Moneyline minus 130. I think they get the job done. Ball out number one.”
4-3 (OT) — Bruins beat Capitals 4-3 in overtime; Boston's moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll Minnesota Twins. First five innings over five runs. minus 115 versus White Sox. Break this one down for us, Lee. So we've got another pitching rematch like we did in Atlanta a few days ago. I'm taking you over for similar reasons. Dallas Keuchel faces off against Jay Happ in Minnesota this time around. And these two teams combined for 21 runs in these pitchers' last starts in Chicago. Keuchel went just five and two-thirds. It allowed six runs. Happ went three and a third. It allowed nine runs. So we're talking about it for a while now. But the White Sox are a juggernaut offensively against left-handed pitching. They've actually come off this game against a loss against a lefty, so I think there's some room here to bounce back, especially against a pitcher. They just hit, like, batting practice the other day. Keuchel has really not been all that impressive this year. Forced 53-year array, but his expected statistics suggest that he's going to get hit some more here in the coming weeks. And he, too, is facing a Minnesota team that has hit lefties well all season. Chicago, Minnesota, ranked first and 12th in first five runs per game, and they're both hitting lefties well. I think we see some early fireworks here. Blowout number two, or double blowout, whatever you want to call it. First five innings over five runs, White Sox and Minnesota.”
White Sox led Twins 10-1 through five innings (final 16-4); the 11 first-five runs clear the Over 5 total (ESPN box score linescore). (F5: CHW 10, MIN 1 (11 runs))
“we're going to roll the betonline.ag line for this one the Avalanche and Blues under five and a half goals plus 100 break all that down for us Lee Yeah even with the Panthers and Lightning game last night was incredible The only game that didn go to the overtime and it was settled about a minute 14th minute 15 left to go in the game I think the game between the Blues and the Avalanche could end up being the most physical. These guys are bitter division rivals and they have some size to beat each other up. Everyone talks about Colorado's high-flying offense because it can look like the Harlem Globetrotters out there but people Also forget that Colorado gave up goals here per game in the NHL between April 1st and today. So with the top goaltender back in the nets here for Colorado, I think it's going to be a struggle for St. Louis to score in this one. And we all know what Jordan Binghamton can do here in the postseason. He's been incredible. He led him to a Stanley Cup title. He has played really well down the stretch, and he's already carried the team to a Stanley Cup. I think we see another, you know, like 1-1 or 2-2 game going into overtime in this one. So we're going to go under five and a half goals here, Colorado and St. Louis. And what level lock are we giving this one? We're going to go level two lock right out of the gate.”
4-1 — Avalanche beat Blues 4-1; the combined 5 goals stay under the 5.5 total (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll the Brewers' money line, minus 133 versus Atlanta. Break this one down for us. All right. Adrian Hauser goes up against Drew Smiley in this one. This isn't Kershaw, Scherzer, or even Verlander, Beaver, guys like that. It's not that kind of matchup for sure. But I do think that Hauser has a bit of an advantage here over Smiley. Hauser, 344 ERA this year. Probably going to come up given some of the advanced metrics, but he's no Drew Smiley. Smiley has a 6-12 ERA, and he's given up four more runs in all but one of his five starts this year. His expected ERA is even higher. So if you look at that, I mean, if you look at all the factors, given a pitcher's ERA, things like strikeouts, walks so I think we have an advantage here Milwaukee was shut out by the Cardinals yesterday and they're 9-2 in the last 11 games this year after being held to two runs or less I think they have a much better bullpen than Atlanta and I think they're getting the Braves team without Ronald Acuna today which is a big advantage he's been banged up keeps getting banged up and they should keep Atlanta to just a few runs in this one. So we're going to take Milwaukee Brewers' money line, minus 1-3, blowout city, blowout special.”
3-6 — Braves beat Brewers 6-3; Milwaukee's moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Hurricane, minus 145 versus Jr. Barbosa, plus 125. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So there's been talk that Shane Burgos is an up-and-comer. He's only 30 years old. A lot of guys hit their prime then. Edson Barbosa, here's a guy, I thought he was 37, 38, but he's actually only 35. So he's been around a long, long time. But Burgos, every time he tries to fight those fighters that are at the next level, guys like Calvin Cater a couple years ago, and then Josh Emmett in June of 2020. Just can't get there. So he needs this fight here to go three rounds. I just think that Edson Barbosa is so skilled, has so much experience. In fact, he beat one of the guys that's fighting in the co-main event, Benel Darius, with a flying knee kick. He has just so many different weapons he can submit you. flying knee kick, punches. And his last two fights, I think the reason he's fighting Burgos is because the last two fights, he lost split decisions. And I looked at both fights, and he won both fights, in my opinion. In fact, I think 13 of the 15 ring advisors, people who were watching, observers, were watching these fights, saw it that way. So I think Barbosa's the right side. We're going here with Junior. I think he takes Hurricane. And he's plus 125. Wrong fighter favorite, Edson Jr. Barbosa over Shane Hurricane Burgos.”
Edson Barboza defeated Shane Burgos by KO/TKO (punches) in round 3 at 1:16 at UFC 262 (UFC.com official results); Barboza's moneyline covers. (Barboza def. Burgos, KO/TKO R3 1:16)
“BetOnline line for this one Golden State minus two versus the Pelicans Thoughts on this one, Lee? Well, you got to take notice here, and you need to listen to some of the other locked-on hosts who do a great job. Locked-on Pelicans and, you know, locked-on Warriors. I mean, the injury here situation. So we know for sure that Golden State's going to be missing of some guys off the bench, some contributors. Three key guys. But New Orleans, as of right now, Lonzo Ball, out. Brandon Ingram, out. Zion, out. Josh Hart, out. And then check with Steven Adams. His situation, he's listed as questionable. That's over 55 points per game that New Orleans is losing. They're two games behind San Antonio. I think they're really done. Yeah, San Antonio plays Phoenix twice, But I think Phoenix, probably the last game, they're going to set a lot of starters here. And for Golden State, wow, all of a sudden they're getting things going. They've won four straight, looking for revenge for the May 4th game where they lost 108-103. And Andrew Wiggins, finally, and I say that again, finally is getting hot. 38 points in the last game. He's a streak shooter. I'm taking Golden State here, minus a small spot, minus two against New Orleans. They get the job done. Not a level one, not a level two. A level three lock. Boom, boom, and boom.”
125-122 — Warriors beat Pelicans 125-122; Golden State won by 3, covering the -2 spread (ESPN box score).
“the betonline line for this one we talking Toronto Maple Leafs to win the North Division is minus 125 This is playoff action. Got to win a couple series. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, a lot of people just look at one series or to win the NHL playoffs. There's so many different options at betonline.ag, and I found one of them. By and large, the Toronto Maple Leafs were the best team in the NHL this year. A lot of people don't realize that. You know, you see the star teams, the star players. You know, you think of the team that won it last year like Tampa Bay. But they were top seven in all the major categories throughout the NHL. Goals per game, goals against per game, expected goals per game, expected goals against per game, and more. And if you go back the last 10 years or so, their kryptonite in the playoffs has been the Boston Bruins. They have made the playoffs four times since 2013, and they've lost to the Bruins three of the four times without winning a round. Well, this year in the first round, they're playing Montreal. And the Canadians, quite frankly, shouldn't have made the playoffs. They were an average team at best that wrote a three-week hot streak early in the season. And then they kind of mailed it in. Toronto's heavily favored in that series, and I think they'll be heavily favored against either Winnipeg or Edmonton here. This team, in my opinion, is head and shoulders above the rest of the Canadian group, and they really have the best goalie right now since they switched goalies. Their starter, Anderson, went down with an injury back in March. They threw in this guy named Jack Campbell. Campbell was actually a first-round pick all the way back in 2010. He just never made it to the NHL until now. What has he done since taking over? 17 wins 2 losses and 2 ties with a 923 save percentage and just 2.11 goals against average. He might be the best goalie in the North Division in the postseason and he's the best goal scorer in the league in front of him and Austin Matthews. I think the Leafs here run away with the division and this is a very easy number to take. Just minus 125.”
Toronto finished first in the North Division but was eliminated in the first round by the Montreal Canadiens in seven games (series ended May 31, 2021), so the Maple Leafs did not win the North Division playoff bracket (Wikipedia, 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs).
“The BetOnline.ag line for this one. Phoenix minus four and a half versus the Trailblazers. What are your thoughts on this one? Well, I mean, people talk about the big three. But right now, maybe the team that has the big three that is just absolutely exploding onto the scene and scoring and leading their team to big wins is the Portland Trailblazers. So they're fifth in points per game at 116, 116 points per game. But they've got three guys. Everyone knows about Lillier. You know, he's amazing, 28 points per game, over seven assists per game. McCallum, I mean, he's having a big season while averaging 23 points. But how about Norman Powell? Norman Powell is a guy that people didn't talk about a whole lot, but this trade, he's come on. And then I think he's that third guy. And then on top of that, they've got Carmelo Anthony coming off the bench, averaging 13.5 points per game. So I just think Phoenix is in trouble here. They're not the same team as they were a couple weeks ago, not playing with the same intensity. So they've lost three of their last four. I think they're resigned to playing in that number two hole for the playoffs. And they should have already been at 50 wins, but they're 48-21. Portland, they're pushing to grab that fifth or sixth spot. We're going to take the four and a half points. I wouldn't be shocked if they win the game outright.”
118-117 — Suns beat Trail Blazers 118-117; Portland lost by 1, covering the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Knicks, minus five versus Spurs. Break this one down for us. San Antonio is pretty much locked into that 10th place. And when you're locked in there, they know they're going to have to beat the number nine seed. Then the following game, they're going to have to beat the winner of the 7-8 game. And I just don't see it happening. But I don't think they're going to go that hard here. They're off back-to-back games after the loss last night to Brooklyn. The Knicks, how about this? People, I have a friend tell me who's a Knicks fan. Oh, we have some really good wins. Yeah, you have some good wins, but not many. You're 22-5 here the last 27 games against teams with losing records. They take care of teams like the Spurs. So you've got to do one thing well to make a big jump this year. And what do the Knicks do? Play defense. Number one defense in the NBA, allowing just 104.9 points per game allowed. Lay the lumber. The Knicks, they're fighting to get that fifth, sixth spot. I think they got a shot here. Lay the lumber, minus five, blowout special, Knicks over the Spurs.”
102-98 — Knicks beat Spurs 102-98; New York won by 4, failing to cover the -5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Cincinnati versus Colorado. over 11, minus 115. Thoughts on this one? Okay, so Colorado pitcher Louis Castillo, I don't know what's wrong with him this year, but if there ever was a place for his problems to get even worse, it's Coors Field. The guy has been a perennial ace the last three to four years, but this year, he's running with a 642 ERA, and that jumps up even higher to 771 on the road. The first innings alone in his seven starts, He's 12 runs on 15 hits. To add to all that, he's 0-2 with an 844 ERA in his career against the Rockies here is the Cincinnati Reds. Coors Field can be a pain in the ass to play at, and I think it will be for Castillo today, especially with Colorado scoring so many more runs at home this year than on the road. On the other side, you've got Chichi Gonzalez. He'll go for the Rockies, 597 ERA this year. but I think his situation is going to be a tough one more than anything. His last three starts have come on the road, and four of the last five have been away from Colorado. His only two home starts prior to the stretch of the road games were both against the Dodgers, so he hasn't had a chance to really settle into the home field and get through some innings. I think both pitchers here are going to be in for it, and I think these two offenses can really hold their own. We've seen what Cincinnati can do at the plate, and I think Colorado's going to start coming around now too. So I think we're going to have an 8-7, 7-6 game here. We're going to play over 11 runs. If it's that high, it's high for a reason. Level 2 lock, over 11 runs, Cincinnati, Colorado.”
8-13 — Rockies beat Reds 13-8; the combined 21 runs clear the Over 11 total (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Charles Dubronx Oliveira, minus 130, versus Iron Chandler. What are your thoughts on this one? Okay, so Michael Chandler is new on the seat, but he's actually older. He's 35 to Charles Oliveira's 31. Chandler was in Bellator, was the champion there. He's moved over here, had a huge knockout win to start his UFC career, and he's a feature headliner here, and he's a great story, but he can really only do one thing well. He can bomb away from the outside. Really good puncher, but I think he has a questionable ground game. And he can get clipped. Charles Oliveira, I just think that this guy is so well-rounded. He's actually been in the UFC since 2010. Only real loss of significance was to Paul Felger back in 2017, but that was three and a half years ago. And his stand-up has improved. If it goes to the ground, it is absolutely over. I think Oliveira will submit him. So I like Charles Oliveira here. I think Dubronks, I think minus 130, small price here. I think he's the number three right now guy. I think he's going to win this, and then he's going to get a title shot. So we're going to go with Charles Dubronks-Oliveira minus 130 over Michael Iron Chandler.”
Charles Oliveira defeated Michael Chandler by TKO (punches) in round 2 at 0:19 to win the UFC lightweight title at UFC 262 (UFC.com official results); Oliveira's moneyline covers. (Oliveira def. Chandler, TKO R2 0:19)
“We're going to roll betonline.ag live for this one. First five innings, money line, plus 155, Orioles versus the Mets. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so most people look at this game and they're like, how are you even thinking of playing the Orioles? But a few years ago, I would impatiently wait for the day every week where I could fade Matt Harvey. Matt Harvey was an automatic fade. He had some of the worst numbers in Major League Baseball. It was a money-making machine whenever you bet against him. So you would think that joining the Orioles would continue that trend, right? No. Matt Harvey, of all people, is the most profitable pitcher in Major League Baseball this year. You have to identify changes when they take place. He's the most profitable pitcher when you play him on the first five money line. He's 5-1-1 on the first five money line this year. And if you placed $100 on Baltimore first five money line, his seven starts this year, you'd be up to $615. This is the first start against the New York Mets. since he played with them a few years ago. So there's a bit of a revenge angle here. He's 2-0 on the road so far this year. He's facing a Mets team that is averaging just 1.64 runs per first five innings, which is second worst in Major League Baseball. I'll leave the Volpens out of this one, but I really like Matt Harvey to come out and have a really good game here in this game. Let's go with the Baltimore Orioles here. First five money line plus 155.”
Mets led Baltimore 7-0 through five innings (final 7-1); the Orioles first-five moneyline lost (ESPN box score linescore). (F5: NYM 7, BAL 0)
“betonline.ag line is Hawks minus six versus the Wizards. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so Washington had to score 45 points in the fourth quarter to beat me. I don't think they're going to do that again here. They're locked into that number 10 seed. If their coach is smart, well, some of these guys aren't the smartest. When you're not coaching the top team, they're already without Bradley Beal. With a hamstring injury, they're going to rest him until the playoffs. I start cutting back on minutes here. I think they're going to cut back on some minutes here. Want to make sure they're healthy. They've got to win two games to get into the playoffs. being the number 10 seed. And Atlanta number four for a franchise that trying to turn the corner They like to have that home court advantage So they tied now with the Knicks They win this game They going to be up They move into fourth place alone. So I think they're going to play hard here. I think they just have too many scores for Washington here. Blowout special, Atlanta minus six.”
120-116 — Hawks beat Wizards 120-116; Atlanta won by 4, failing to cover the -6 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll White Sox money line, minus 135 versus Minnesota. Thoughts on this one? So I told you that I think Minnesota yesterday is going to get right. Well, maybe not just yet. Maybe another day or two that run starts. So, J.A. Happ has been one of the few bright spots for the Twins so far this year with a 191 ERA. But one of the best bets you could have made over the last year and a half in Major League Baseball is the Chicago White Sox against left-handed pitching. Dating back to the start of 2020, White Sox, get this, are 21-1. Are you kidding me? 21-1 against left-handed started pitchers here. They're 7-1 in their last eight at home against lefties. In fact, the White Sox are ranked number one in the runs per game against lefties last year, and they're doing it again this year with the highest scoring offense in the game and the highest batting average in Major League Baseball against lefties. Jay Happ holds a mediocre 5.05 ERA in his career against the White Sox, And he's pitching in this game with seven days off since his last start, which I think might cost here a little more rust than rest here. So we might have some of those issues here this early in the season. Chicago's 4-0 and Dallas Keuchel's last four starts as a home favorite, 6-1 his last seven as a favorite overall here. So I think they will get out to an early lead and hold this one with the much better bullpen than Minnesota So we playing Chicago White Sox money line minus 135 level one lock”
13-8 — White Sox beat Twins 13-8; Chicago's moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. The Lakers minus 4.5 versus the Knicks. Break it on down for us, Lee. Well, it's important to follow some of the news as far as injuries, especially late in the season, the last week of the season, and the association. And check on, you know, locked on Lakers and locked on Knicks because LeBron James, I believe, is going to play. The line is telling you he's going to play. They're favored by 4.5. half uh Kyle Kuzma question mark uh so check that uh the Knicks have two questionable players Alec Burks and also Manuel quickly uh quickly you know under the radar guy off the bench you know he can heat up and score 15 20 points like it's nothing he's a left ankle sprain so you know check those podcasts I'll probably give you an update on both of those guys status and uh I'm looking at this game the Lakers they look good one game they look great the other night on Sunday night, but they're 0-5 against the spread following a win. On the other side, the Knicks, 12-3 against the spread the last 15 road games. They've even played better on the road, so you have to identify things like that. They have the number one defense in the NBA. We talked about Tom Thibodeau when he was with Chicago in his lockdown defense, but here's something that shows you how the NBA has changed. What do you think they're averaging points per game allowing? Oh, man. I would say, what, 111? Well, it's not that bad. It's 105. I mean, back in the day, it was 90, 85 points. Right, exactly. When you give up 105 or less points, that's considered a really good defensive effort. So I think the coaching edge here goes to the Knicks. They have more to play for. They want that number four seed. Let's take the four and a half points and Knicks here. I think they take this game right down to the wire. I think they might even win out right there you go right there wrong team favorite says Lee Sterling”
101-99 — Lakers beat Knicks 101-99 in overtime; Knicks lost by 2, covering the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Miami, minus one and a half versus Celtics. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Well, it's not going to happen without Jalen Brown. So he's done for the year. season ending wrist surgery. I think they were shocked when they heard that news. And, you know, some teams can overcome it for a game. I just don't see it. I think Brad Stevens is headed back to college basketball. He did some of his best work there. And, you know, for a season or two, I thought he was going to be a great coach in the NBA. But sometimes you got to admit you make mistakes. I just think sometimes when you're coaching with a team four, five, six years, that message is lost. And it seems like it's lost with this team. Miami's own Boston. If you watch the playoffs last year. Miami, the sixth-rated defense, and now all of a sudden, they're hot on offense. I think Miami feels, if they face off against it, they can somehow at least hold that sixth spot, which they're probably going to end up getting. They're going to face Milwaukee, and they dispatched Milwaukee in five games. It was almost a four-game sweep here. The defense also, just horrible. Robert Williams, he's not able to stop anyone inside. He had to leave that game early. with a turf toe injury. I mean, you're talking about a tough injury. Okay, you can get by with a quad or something, but turf toe running up and down the court, planning in basketball, you probably needed as much as maybe football as a wide receiver or running back. They're allowing 45% shooting in three-pointers in back games That means the two teams they face Chicago and Miami 16 plus three pointers and back to back losses So I think Miami playing their best ball right now Yeah Blowout special minus one and a half.”
129-121 — Heat beat Celtics 129-121; Miami won by 8, covering the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll Braves money line, minus 112 versus Toronto. Hit us with the lock of the day, Lee. What's your thoughts? Okay, so the Atlanta Braves are just a different animal at home right now versus the road. They're averaging 5.2 runs per game at home, just 4.1 runs per game on the road. They're starting to heat up a little bit right now, especially offensively. And if you could sense it against the Phillies on Sunday night, I certainly got a big dose of it. Philadelphia hit a leadoff home run on the first pitch of the entire game, and then the Braves just ran away with it. They responded to the home run with four in the bottom of the first, and then they shut out the Phillies the rest of the way. Max Fried, who I love, got off to a real rocky start to the year, but he seems to be settling in now. He's on the mound tonight. Look great in his first start back from the injured list. And I think this is a good spot here to buy low on him. Get this, in his career, in interleague games, 7-0 with a 218 ERA and 7-star. So, teams that have not seen him, not comfortable to seeing, you know, the way he pitches, have had almost no success. And Robbie Ray for the Blue Jays and really for Toronto, this is a tough situational spot for them. Atlanta is the last spot for them in a long road trip. Started in Oakland. Then they went to Houston. Then they went to Atlanta. Remember, the Blue Jays are moving from South Florida back to Buffalo soon. So they're traveling a lot right now. I like this by low spot for the Braves. You're just laying 112. This line should be like minus 135 to minus 145. Get this. On a Tuesday, we have a level three lock.”
3-5 — Blue Jays beat Braves 5-3; Atlanta's moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll Nashville. Money line, plus 124 versus Carolina. Break this one down for us. All right, Q, so there are a lot of meaningless games going on this week in the NHL with playoff brackets. I mean, they're essentially set in stone, but I think this game means a lot to Nashville outside of just the playoffs. So back in March, the Predators were 11-17, and statistically, they had a 2% chance of making the postseason. They're 19-7 since then, and this is their playoff preview game with the Carolina Hurricanes for the first round. But above all that, their goalie, Pekka Rene, he's been with the team for 15 years, and he's probably playing the final home game of his career in Nashville tonight. He was drafted by Nashville in the eighth round of the draft in 2004. In fact, they don't even hold eight rounds in the draft anymore, so he holds the franchise record for every major goalie category. He's our fan favorite there, but he's retiring after this year. And he's kind of like the Udonis Haslam to the Heat fans out there. He isn't that good anymore, but he's a franchise guy that will be aiming for a big send-off. I think the crowd, I think it's only 20-25% there, but I think they're going to be really pumped for this game. And I think the Predators need this momentum going into the postseason far more than the Hurricanes do. And I think they're going to get it here. national predators plus one 24 money line over Carolina wrong team is favored. I think they win this game by two goals.”
Nashville 5, Carolina 0 — Predators shut out the Hurricanes 5-0, cashing the Nashville moneyline (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. The Hawks, minus 7.5 versus the Wizards. Thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so Bradley Beals out, hamstring injury. They'd like to move. They're sitting at 9. They'd like to move up to number 8. I think it's just going to be tough. I think Washington's had their run. We played them a couple times over the last 10 days, and they were really good to us. But it's just like everything. These teams go in eight and ten game runs, and then they're done. I think Washington is done. So without Beal, they're going to have to shoot much better from the perimeter. And guys like Hachimura he only made 31 of his threes this season So guys like Burkans Matthews and Neto they going to have to be really efficient And they just don shoot that many threes Can it happen? Yeah, anything can happen. But just think that the Hawks here, Bogdanovich, he was out with the COVID. He seems to finally be hitting his stride here. And Nate McMillan took over this team. They were 14-20. Since he was hired, Hawks have won 23 of 34. It's a great story here. So I think Bogdanovich will continue to play well here. Lou Williams walking off the bench, and he's playing at a high level again. I think it took him a little while to get adjusted here. And also the Wizards, how about this? Five and two against the spread in the last seven road games versus the team with a winning percentage. So I like Atlanta here. I'm going to lay the seven and a half points. I think they win this game here easy. The blowout special. You do want to, though, I would check with Locked On Hawks here. They'll have an update as far as the injuries. They have a couple guys that are questionable. So I'm always checking a bunch of the other different podcasts to find out the insight of some of these great people that cover these teams in these games. And they know even more sometimes than I do as far as the injuries. So you might want to hop on and listen to Locked On Hawks to see what's going on with this game. But blowout special, Atlanta Hawks over Washington.”
Atlanta 125, Washington 124 — Hawks beat the Wizards only 125-124, a 1-point margin, so Atlanta -7.5 failed to cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. the Red Sox money line, minus 132 versus the Orioles. Thoughts on this one? All right, what we're doing on this one is we're gonna buy low on Martin Perez. He 0 on the road this year in two starts but he has only given up three runs in almost 11 innings on the road so far He only coming into the start on four days of rest whereas most starters get four days of rest but he has actually been better on four days of rest throughout his career than in any other situation. He's 31-26 with just a 4-27 ERA on short arrest. We're also getting a good price on George Lopez here. Lopez, 1-3 with a 6.50 ERA on the year. He's carrying a 12.60 ERA in his career against Boston. This Red Sox lineup is one of the best in Major League Baseball and hitting on the road. And they've always hit well in Baltimore. I like the Red Sox to complete the four-game sweep here against the Orioles. Orioles start off the season well, and then they pretty much have become who we thought they were. So we're going to take the Boston Red Sox money line, minus 132, level two lock.”
Baltimore 4, Boston 1 — Orioles beat the Red Sox 4-1 behind Trey Mancini's go-ahead homer, so Boston's moneyline lost (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll Arizona versus the Mets. First five innings under three and a half runs plus 110. Break this one down for us. Okay, so David Peterson's home and away splits as a starting pitcher for the New York Mets are pretty stunning. On the road, he's just 3-4 with a 430 ERA. But at home, he's 4-1, and his ERA drops a full point to 330. So he's a left-handed pitcher that throws a ton of breaking balls, and he's getting a Diamondbacks offense that has gone absolutely cold in their last three games, scoring just four runs in Miami. Zach Gallin, the pitcher for Arizona here, he's the only true ace on this staff, to be honest with you. He's coming off his first bad start of the season, allowing four runs and four innings. I love to play aces off a bad outing, but otherwise he's been good on the road in his career, just a 252 ERA. I think both of these offenses are due for some regression here, and it might already be hitting the Diamondbacks. So I see a 1-0 or 1-1 score after five in this one. Not going to play the game, just play the under. Three and a half, plus 110 in the Arizona-New York Mets game.”
Arizona 4, New York Mets 1 (through 5 innings) — Arizona led 4-1 through five innings (ARI 0-3-1-0-0, NYM 0-0-1-0-0) before the Mets rallied to win 5-4 in 10 innings; the combined 5 runs through five exceeded the under 3.5 total (ESPN box score).
“We're going to roll this one, betonline.ag. Red Wings versus Blue Jackets. over five goals, minus 125. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so you see where these two teams are in the playoff race. Detroit, 18-27-9. Horrific. Columbus, almost as bad, 17-25-12. Where's the motivation? It's minimal for sure, but this has been a growing trend in the past couple years in the NHL. Two non teams especially teams with a ton of younger guys on the team they match up and they have these wide open carefree without much structure or discipline So also very few penalties called The referees, they want to get out there, too. They don't want any part of these bad games. So, it's actually leading to more goals in these games, especially with these guys trying to hit their year-end bonuses before they head off for the summer. And how about this? Columbus is starting its fourth-stream goalie for the first time all year. So I was digging and digging and found this. So it's pretty publicly known that their head coach is going to be leaving after the year. I'm going to take the over here on a low total. Let's see these guys score some bonus money. Just a few days left in the season here. Wide open, fun game to watch. And we're playing the over with confidence. We're going to go with a level one lock here. Detroit Columbus over five goals, minus 125.”
Detroit 5, Columbus 2 — Red Wings beat the Blue Jackets 5-2, a combined 7 goals, clearing the over 5 total (ESPN scoreboard).
“And we're going to roll this one, the betonline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll Kline plus 115 to win by stoppage over the lone wolf.”
Michael Trizano defeated Ludovit Klein by unanimous decision at UFC on ESPN, so Klein did not win by stoppage (UFC.com official event result). (Trizano defeated Klein by unanimous decision)
“Brooklyn, minus three and a half versus Dallas. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So, I saw Dallas in person. And, wow. They just played with energy. And I think it's going to continue here. I think this Brooklyn team is pretty much made up. They need the big three to be real successful. So, do you want to lay three and a half points on the road against a hot Dallas team? And you don't have all your stars. So, I think Harden is that important. uh not it's not like you know Kyrie Irving and and Durant aren't doing their job I mean they combined for 70 points but the rest of the team finished with only 48 combined points so uh I just think that Dallas is going to continue uh to win here I think that losing the Sacramento uh game I think it spurred them on and uh why is Brooklyn not real successful of late? Well, rebounding. They lost that game to Milwaukee because they couldn't control the boards. They're out-rebounded 55-39, and rebounding is about hustle, and I think Dallas right now is showing it, and I'm going to take the three-and-a-half points here in Dallas. Wrong team favorite. I'm going to play them half of my wager on a plus three-and-a-half, and the other half on the money line.”
Dallas 113, Brooklyn 109 — Mavericks beat the Nets 113-109, a 4-point margin, covering Dallas +3.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Brooklyn, minus three and a half versus Dallas. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So, I saw Dallas in person. And, wow. They just played with energy. And I think it's going to continue here. I think this Brooklyn team is pretty much made up. They need the big three to be real successful. So, do you want to lay three and a half points on the road against a hot Dallas team? And you don't have all your stars. So, I think Harden is that important. uh not it's not like you know Kyrie Irving and and Durant aren't doing their job I mean they combined for 70 points but the rest of the team finished with only 48 combined points so uh I just think that Dallas is going to continue uh to win here I think that losing the Sacramento uh game I think it spurred them on and uh why is Brooklyn not real successful of late? Well, rebounding. They lost that game to Milwaukee because they couldn't control the boards. They're out-rebounded 55-39, and rebounding is about hustle, and I think Dallas right now is showing it, and I'm going to take the three-and-a-half points here in Dallas. Wrong team favorite. I'm going to play them half of my wager on a plus three-and-a-half, and the other half on the money line. Let's go for a big wrong team favorite here, Dallas Mavericks.”
Dallas 113, Brooklyn 109 — Mavericks beat the Nets 113-109 outright, cashing the Dallas moneyline (ESPN scoreboard).
“The betonline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll Brewers money line minus 106 versus the Phillies. Break this one down for us. All right, so the Brewers and Brandon Woodruff actually opened as a slight underdog in this one at around plus 105 before it was bet up to basically a pick-em. And, you know, they're a small favorite here. I thought this was a pretty crazy line here against Zach Wheeler, who has been pretty inconsistent this year. So I had to go back and look. Somehow Brandon Woodruff has been an underdog twice this season already against the Dodgers and the Padres. What has he done in both of these games? Not only did he win both games, he went a combined 12 innings pitched with just three earned runs and 13 strikeouts. This guy just seems to show up for big games. He's 2-0 in his career against Philadelphia with just one earned run allowed and 18 innings pitched. He's 2-0 this year on the road with an 0-47 year away, and he's getting a Phillies lineup that just doesn't have that punch. I mean, Bryce Harper isn't in there, and they're just not the same without him. The Brewers have the better bullpen also, and they've swung the bat pretty well here, even with Christian Yelich out of the lineup. Give me the Brewers here. Early game I think they avoid the sweep Milwaukee Brewers blowout special early baseball here Thursday afternoon”
Philadelphia 2, Milwaukee 0 — Phillies shut out the Brewers 2-0 behind Zack Wheeler's three-hit shutout, so Milwaukee's moneyline lost (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll Toronto minus one and a half goals plus 105 versus Canadians. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yes, so we picked on the Montreal Canadiens last night, and I'm going to do it again tonight. You look back on their game against the Senators last night, and just because they were in a bad situation last night does not mean they're in a good situation tonight. Tonight, the Canadians, they're playing their ninth game in 14 days, and they're on the back end of a back-to-back with some travel. In the same 14-day span, the Maple Leafs are only playing their sixth game. The Leafs are getting two nights of rest in this one, and what happened in their last game? They lost in overtime to the Canadians in Montreal. So we have a revenge spot here. We have a much more rested team against an exhausted team traveling from Ottawa. And we have a Montreal team with very little to play for. They've essentially locked up that fourth spot in the North Division. And they're just trying to get some rest for some guys here with tough schedule before the playoffs. So I think the Leafs control the game throughout. And I think they run away with it in the third period. I see a 4-1, 5-2 final here. So a lot of these fourth teams that are going to get that last playoff spot in their division, just not impressed with them. So there's teams like Florida. Florida's going to probably finish in second or third. They have the most points in the NHL. Some of these fourth-place teams, not much difference between fourth and fifth place, but there is a big difference between the top three in the division and the fourth-place team. So I'm going to write Toronto here. Minus the one and a half goals, plus 105, level two lock.”
Toronto 5, Montreal 2 — Maple Leafs beat the Canadiens 5-2, a 3-goal margin, covering Toronto -1.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm going to go with Brooklyn, minus 125 to win the Eastern Conference. I think they're going to get back Harden. I think he's going to be ready to go. I think with the three of them, I think they're going to be almost unbeatable. So I'm going to lay the 125 for the Brooklyn Nets to win their conference. and I'm going to take a flyer here on the Phoenix Suns plus $550. So for every $100 you wager, you can return $550. I have a feeling they're going to end up in that one hole. I think that we might see teams like the Clippers and Utah and the Lakers. I think they might just all beat each other up, and then Phoenix, all they've got to do is win one real tough series. So I'm going to take a flyer here on the Phoenix Suns to end up as the number one seed and win the conference, plus 550. I think it's going to go down to about 4, 450 in the next day or two. So you've got some value there. This way we've got a lot riding on the playoffs already. So there you go. BetOnline.ag line is, you're saying Brooklyn, minus 125 to win the conference. Put money down on that. And then also Phoenix plus 550 to win the conference. Put the money down on that. I win Phoenix.”
The Milwaukee Bucks, not Brooklyn, won the 2021 NBA Eastern Conference and advanced to the Finals, so the Nets futures pick lost (Wikipedia, 2021 NBA playoffs).
“I'm going to go with Brooklyn, minus 125 to win the Eastern Conference. I think they're going to get back Harden. I think he's going to be ready to go. I think with the three of them, I think they're going to be almost unbeatable. So I'm going to lay the 125 for the Brooklyn Nets to win their conference. and I'm going to take a flyer here on the Phoenix Suns plus $550. So for every $100 you wager, you can return $550. I have a feeling they're going to end up in that one hole. I think that we might see teams like the Clippers and Utah and the Lakers. I think they might just all beat each other up, and then Phoenix, all they've got to do is win one real tough series. So I'm going to take a flyer here on the Phoenix Suns to end up as the number one seed and win the conference, plus 550. I think it's going to go down to about 4, 450 in the next day or two. So you've got some value there. This way we've got a lot riding on the playoffs already. So there you go. BetOnline.ag line is, you're saying Brooklyn, minus 125 to win the conference. Put money down on that. And then also Phoenix plus 550 to win the conference. Put the money down on that. I win Phoenix.”
The Phoenix Suns beat the LA Clippers in six games to win the 2021 NBA Western Conference and advance to the Finals, cashing the Suns futures pick (Wikipedia, 2021 NBA playoffs).
“BetOnline.ag live for this one. Milwaukee minus four versus Washington. Thoughts on this one, Lee? If you're not paying attention to what Washington's doing, you're missing out. They won for the 11th time in 13 games. They destroyed Indiana. And, um, you know, they're going to be going to the playoffs. Yeah, it's a play in tournament, but three games ahead of 11th place. Toronto And, you know, we talked about hot shooting, 61.2% from the field, teams that shoot above 60%, 12-2 against the spread the next game. So there is some carryover. And Russell Westbrook, as you mentioned, 20 rebounds and 20 assists. I mean, incredible what he did. Just only the third time in NBA history someone had 20 rebounds and 20 assists in a game, even added to that 14 points. So I think he continues here. Milwaukee's in a really bad spot. I mean, after playing the Nets, you know, back-to-back games, third game in four nights, I mean, that was an emotional win for them. Here's something also that you might want to pay attention to. As good as the Bucs are lately at home versus top teams, they're 0-4 the last four home games versus teams with losing records. So I'm going to back Washington here. I think they stay on a roll. I mean, normally, early part of the season, Milwaukee's a 10, 8, 9, 10, 12-point favorite in this game. Milwaukee's only laying four here. Washington plus four. The wrong team is favored. They're going to win this game outright.”
Milwaukee 135, Washington 134 — Bucks edged the Wizards 135-134, a 1-point margin, so Washington +4 covered (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline line for this one We're going to roll Atlanta Moneyline minus 124 versus Washington. Break this one down for us, Lee. Max Fried is back for the Braves. So he really struggled in his first few starts this year and pulled a hamstring running the bases. So Atlanta put him on injured reserve for a few weeks. one of his really rough starts came against these nationals in Washington, D.C., where he and tonight's opposing pitcher, Eric Fetty, these two guys were both out of the game by the third inning. When you have two guys face each other and both of them get roughed up like that, you pretty much have to back the better pitcher in the rematch. So let's not forget that Freed was 7-0 last year with a .225 VRA. He was considered a contender for the NL Cy Young. And, Betty, he's been pretty good this year, but he has a 14.06 career ERA in six appearances against the Braves. That's 25 earned runs in just 16 innings pitched. Freed is completely healthy. He told reporters yesterday that he's made some adjustments. I think this is a bigger mismatch here than the sportsbooks are giving Atlanta credit for. So, you know, they're only laying 124. I think the line should be minus 150 to 160. Let's go with Atlanta here. Blowout special.”
Atlanta 5, Washington 3 — Braves beat the Nationals 5-3 behind Ozuna's grand slam, cashing the Atlanta moneyline (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll Ottawa Moneyline plus 129 versus Montreal. Thoughts on this one. So most people don't talk about the Ottawa Senators. They're not going to the playoffs. They not a high team If you mention say hey mention all the teams in the NHL probably one of the two or three teams Even if you follow the NHL on a fairly regular basis you probably forget But I talked about the Senators just last week. They started the season 2-12-1. They were the little kid that got picked on by the rest of the league. But when you look at how they've played since then, and you compare it to Montreal, the Senators have been the much better team. They're 18-15-4 since that time. Montreal, 16-14-7. DJ Smith, the Ottawa head coach, has his team playing some of the best hockey since they made the Eastern Conference Finals a few years ago. For tonight's game, though, Montreal is in a really tough situation. They just played Toronto at home. They won in overtime. That was kind of like the crowning victory of the season so far for them. So with one of their younger prospects scoring the overtime goal to win it, they play Ottawa tonight. And then what do they do? They turn around tomorrow and they fly to Toronto to play the Leafs on back-to-back games tomorrow night. So the Senators have been sitting at home for four or five days now in preparation here for this game. And I think this is an absolutely brutal spot here for Montreal to get up. I could see Ottawa running away with this game. So it's all about situational plays. A lot of times there's some really good spots, and the average person isn't going that deep to be able to follow and pick out something like this. So we're going to take Ottawa here. Moneyline, plus 129, level two lock.”
Ottawa 5, Montreal 1 — Senators beat the Canadiens 5-1 at home, cashing the Ottawa moneyline (ESPN scoreboard).
“The betonline.ag line for this one. The Flyers and Penguins over 6.5 plus 108. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, these two groups are classic examples here of two teams moving in opposite directions. Late in the year, Philadelphia has been killed by their own goaltending and is out of the playoff race. And Pittsburgh went 10-4 in the month of April to secure a top-two seed in the East Division. But you wouldn't know that by the way they've been playing each other the other night. The Flyers jumped out to a four-goal lead early, blew the game open with a 7-2 win. They may be out of the playoff race, but with nothing to play for, Philly has scored 19 goals in the last four games. And there's a lot of players that are trying to hit those end-of-the-year bonuses negotiated into their salary. So you see those in baseball and also hockey a lot. They'll also start Brian Elliott in this one. And he has not had a good year with the 3.02 goals against average. The Penguins are going to come into this game with some revenge. They should open things up. Overs 8-2 the last 10 between these two. And I wouldn't be surprised to see a bunch of goals yet again. And remember, most teams mail it in towards the end of the year. But when you're playing your arch rival like these two are, there's still some extra motivation to score some goals. This isn't the last game of the year, the second last. So we're going to go over 6.5 plus 108. Wrong team favorite.”
Pittsburgh 7, Philadelphia 3 — Penguins beat the Flyers 7-3, a combined 10 goals, clearing the over 6.5 total (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Phoenix minus 12 and a half at Cleveland. Thoughts on this one? Yeah, Cleveland's one of those teams that just looks horrendous. I mean, they're losing almost every single game of late. They're just 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. What they do is Colin Sexton either drives while he doesn't pass. I mean, just 4.1 assists per game for a guy playing that many minutes is absolutely pathetic. They stand the other four players on the three-point line. and Phoenix stops three-point shooters, allowing just 34.6% from the three-point line. So Phoenix is in first place. They don't want to blow it against a team like Cleveland. They're playing with meaning and blowout special. Phoenix minus 12.5, just like we had the Knicks the other day. I think Phoenix just blows out Cleveland by 20 to 25 points. Does it ever get – do you ever think that teams kind of take their foot off the gas when they're playing a team like Cleveland because they feel like they're going to cruise with this victory anyway? Oh, sometimes. It can happen. You know, they can get up 18, 20 points and pull out the starters and get a late run. If this plays the way I think it should play and you have a leader like Chris Paul, they're not taking them out until they're up 20 points. So that's the way I look at it. You know, can Cleveland get hot? Can it be one of those that, yeah, anything can happen? These are professionals. Remember guys that are, you know, the second, third, fourth guys on the bench, they can come out and score 30, 40 points. These are high-end players, but Cleveland has absolutely no bench. They're picking up players, you know, for 10-day contracts to finish the year because of the injuries. Cleveland's one of those teams shutting down a bunch of players. So as long as Phoenix plays, you know, B, B-minus game, they should cover the spread.”
Phoenix 134, Cleveland 118 — Suns beat the Cavaliers 134-118 in OT, a 16-point margin, covering Phoenix -12.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.ag line, we're going to roll the Reds versus White Sox over nine runs, minus 122. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, so the wind is blowing out of Cincinnati today, and anyone who follows baseball betting closely knows that Cincinnati and Chicago are two of the most weather-dependent ballparks in Major League Baseball. You can tell by the Reds' offensive numbers at home that the wind has been blowing up a lot in Cincinnati this year. They're averaging 7.73 runs per game at home to this point, by far the most in the majors. Chicago, on the other hand, averaging 5.5 runs per game on the road. So don't see starts for the White Sox here. He's been pretty good. And, but two numbers really stick out for me. And, and the first is he's thrown 54% fastballs. The Reds are hitting fastballs as well as any other team in the league. And that why they leading the league in sliding percentage The second number that sticks out to me is his 34 fly ball rate this year which is 11 percentage points higher than his previous two years in the league He's allowing a ton of hard-hit fly balls, and that's a dangerous recipe for a starting pitcher in Cincinnati right now. We're going over nine. Minus 122 here. Level one lock. I like it. Level one lock and a lot of runs scored in this one”
Chicago White Sox 9, Cincinnati 0 — White Sox shut out the Reds 9-0, a combined 9 runs, exactly landing on the over/under 9 total (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Miami minus three versus the Mavericks. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Miami's a great comeback team. Now, 5-1-1 against the spread the last seven after allowing 100 or more points in the previous game. And both teams sitting in that sixth position. Miami could get to the fourth position. Only two games here behind the New York Knicks, and they do own the tiebreaker here with the Knicks. And Knicks have a brutal, as we talked about last week, a brutal road swing here where they only have one team below .500 the rest of the year. So I think Miami smells it. Miami's own this series, 36-22. And then also looking for a little revenge. Dallas won 93-83 in the first matchup this year. And poor Zengis will not play in this game. And that's the main factor here. I just think Bam is going to dominate. He'll score 18 to 24 points. He'll probably have 13 to 16 rebounds. And the guy just does everything. And without Porzingis, I think it's open entry to the basket here. And Miami will drive and score. Jimmy Butler should have a game. He's also playing at a high level now. I like Miami here at home, minus three versus Dallas.”
Dallas 127, Miami 113 — Mavericks beat the Heat 127-113 outright, so Miami -3 lost straight up (ESPN scoreboard).
“the betonline.ag line for this one, Milwaukee minus 1.5 versus Brooklyn. How are you feeling about this game? So I think Milwaukee, you know, if they don't win this game, then they are a team that you fade because they'll be 3.5 games behind Brooklyn and still 3.5 ahead of New York. So they'll be caught in between. They'll just go through the motions and finish out the year. But if they can win this game, they're one and a half games behind Brooklyn. Love to be in that number two spot. Love to be able to play one of those teams in the play-in tournament. And even though Brooklyn has two players that are almost unguardable, Irving and Durant and Milwaukee obviously has one of the Greek freak, and he's had a lot of success against Brooklyn. I've noticed when these two teams have played and they have split, the series so far this year, the players from Milwaukee, their three-point shooters are able to get a lot of uncontested shots, are able to get to their spots and get shots off. So as long as they shoot fairly well, I think it's an advantage here, and I think that might be the difference here also playing at home. Sometimes, you know, with less than 10 games to go in the season is important. So I'm going to lay the one-and-a-half points, just one-and-a-half. It's down from two, two-and-a-half from last night. lay the one and a half level three lock here the milwaukee bucks take on and i think they take care of the brooklyn that's here tonight”
Milwaukee 124, Brooklyn 118 — Bucks beat the Nets 124-118, a 6-point margin, covering Milwaukee -1.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Utah minus 7.5 versus Spurs. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so Utah's in trouble. They're going to make the playoffs, probably going to be the number two seed, but I just can't see them getting the number one seed. I mean, Donovan Mitchell still out. Mike Conley's list is questionable. And when these two don't play, they just don't score enough. It's like in football. I will never take a team that's missing, let's say, their quarterback and another key player on offense if they're not a scoring offense and lay double digits. Just won't do it. You've got to look to the other side. Last two games, they scored 106 and 104 points without these two guys. So they are not the same team on offense without these guys. Yes, San Antonio's lost three straight, but they're number 10 in the West. They're two and a half games ahead of New Orleans to get that final 10th spot in the play-in tournament. So this game is that important here for them. And look who San Antonio has left. If you think, I don't know if I've ever seen a tougher schedule going down the stretch. They're going to play after this game. Portland, who's red hot. Milwaukee, Brooklyn. The Knicks, Utah twice. And Phoenix twice. the only scrub team, Sacramento. So they're going to do whatever they can to win this game here. It's important for them to make the playoffs. They don't have many stars, but they just play hard. Great coaching staff, just like Utah, but just think seven and a half points is too much. Wrong team favorite. This game goes down to the wire. It wouldn't shock me if the Spurs pull the upset here over the Utah Jazz.”
Utah 110, San Antonio 99 — Jazz beat the Spurs 110-99, a 11-point margin, so San Antonio +7.5 failed to cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Florida, minus 140 versus Dallas. Break this one down. Yeah, so the Stars played the biggest game of the year on Saturday against Nashville. Their playoff hopes basically depended on it, and they lost a heartbreaker. They lost 1-0 in overtime. They couldn't score a goal. So they're in a situation now. They trail Nashville 58-55 in the standings for that fourth spot in the division, the final spot in the playoffs. And, yeah, Dallas has played one more game, but now they've got a tough stretch. Now they've got to face a Panther squad who is right there. They have a chance to be number one in the division. And you want to be number one. You want to play possibly Nashville instead of playing Carolina or Tampa Bay in the first round. So the game means a lot to him. The Panthers also probably start Spencer Knight in goal. And this guy's been phenomenal. He was the third goaltender, but since he was brought up, he's allowed just four goals in his first three starts in the NHL. And three of those four came after his professional debut. we're going to ride this kid here, especially in the spot here for Florida. I just think that Dallas, you know, right now, just mentally, they're down. So we'll lay the 140, Florida, which is the story of the NHL, in my opinion, going from out of the playoffs to possibly winning the division 34-14-5. Lay the 140. I think they win by two or three goals here.”
Florida 5, Dallas 4 (OT) — Florida beat Dallas 5-4 in overtime on Barkov's OT winner, cashing the Panthers moneyline (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Washington minus three versus the Pacers. What are your thoughts on this one? All right, so neither team wants to face Boston, who is probably going to end up number seven in the playoff tournament, playing tournament. So you got Washington who's sitting number 10. You got Indiana who's sitting number nine. You end up at that 10 hole. You play Boston, you're done, in my opinion. So Indiana's finally healthy for the play-in tournament. They got some bonus back. And this guy's 6'11". He's an adept shooter, passer, and he's hitting the board chart. How good was he Saturday night against Oklahoma City? 26 points for a 6'11 guy. 19 rebounds and 14 assists. And also Malcolm Brogdon should play in this game. He's listed as questionable here. I just think Washington after, and I had them, I had them, you know, for my service Saturday night against Dallas getting the five points. They lost 125 to 124 to Dallas in a hard-fought loss and went right down to the end. I just think mentally it's going to be tough for them to get up here. Indiana's more talented. They just share the ball better. I just think when they're healthy, they're a cut above Washington. I think they're going to stay in that number nine hole. I'm picking the three points here, level one block here, Indiana Pacers over the Washington.”
Washington 154, Indiana 141 — Wizards beat the Pacers 154-141, a 13-point margin, so Indiana +3 failed to cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“Toronto Blue Jays, money line, minus 113.”
TOR 13, ATL 5 — Blue Jays beat the Braves 13-5, powered by Teoscar Hernandez's three-run homer; Toronto's moneyline wins (ESPN).
“I like Phoenix here, minus the four and a half. this line should be like seven eight points it lines way off here level three lock”
PHX 121, UTAH 100 — Suns beat the Jazz 121-100, a 21-point margin that covers Phoenix's -4.5 spread (ESPN).
“we're going to go with TJ Downtown Brown here as an underdog, plus 123, to get it done in the UFC on Saturday night.”
T.J. Brown defeated Kai Kamaka III by split decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs Prochazka (Wikipedia results table). (Brown def. Kamaka, split decision)
“I'm picking the three and a half. Wrong team favored. Minnesota Timberwolves outright tonight over Golden State.”
MIN 126, GS 114 — Timberwolves beat the Warriors 126-114, a 12-point margin that covers Minnesota's +3.5 (ESPN).
“And I like Pittsburgh. They opened up as an underdog. They're now minus 108 here. Blowout special. I think they win this game by two or three goals.”
PIT 5, WSH 4 — Penguins beat the Capitals 5-4 in overtime on Guentzel's OT goal; Pittsburgh's moneyline wins (ESPN).
“We're going to Houston Astros. Team total over four and a half runs, minus 125, level two lock.”
SEA 1, HOU 0 — Houston was shut out 1-0 by Seattle (Kikuchi no-hit into the 7th), so the Astros' team total stays under 4.5 (ESPN).
“Will Jimmy Garoppolo be traded during the first round? I'm going to say no. I think they're going to... I just don't see it. I think that they're going to wait a little bit here, and I'm going to say plus 250 doesn't get traded.”
Jimmy Garoppolo remained on the 49ers' roster and was not traded during the 2021 NFL Draft; he stayed with San Francisco through the 2022 season (Wikipedia, citing his trade timeline).
“I think it's Najee Harris. I think he's clearly number one at minus 225.”
Pittsburgh took Najee Harris at No. 24, the first running back selected in the 2021 NFL Draft's first round (Wikipedia round-1 results). (No. 24: Pittsburgh selected Najee Harris (first RB off the board))
“will the Chicago Bears draft a quarterback? Yes, plus 203. minus 300 for a no. I think they're waiting for the second, third round. There's that second tier quarterbacks after the top five. And I think maybe someone like Kyle Trask, they're going to go after that too. They're rumored to like, they'll get him in the second or third round. So I'm going to say, do they draft a quarterback in the first round? No minus 300.”
Chicago drafted quarterback Justin Fields with the No. 11 overall pick in round 1 (Wikipedia round-1 results), so the 'no QB in round 1' pick loses. (No. 11: Chicago selected Justin Fields, QB)
“First round, Green Bay Packers will draft a wide receiver. Yes, plus 135.”
Green Bay used the No. 29 pick on cornerback Eric Stokes, not a wide receiver (Wikipedia round-1 results). (No. 29: Green Bay selected Eric Stokes, CB)
“So we're going to go here, blowout special. Edmonton Oilers, money line, minus 113. I think they win again.”
EDM 3, WPG 1 — Oilers beat the Jets 3-1 on the road; Edmonton's moneyline wins (ESPN).
“I lay the four here Level two lock Phoenix Suns”
PHX 109, LAC 101 — Suns beat the Clippers 109-101, an 8-point margin that covers the -4 spread (ESPN).
“How about the Detroit Lions trading the number seven overall pick, the betonline.ag line for this one, minus 175. Lee, and you're rolling no. Yeah, and I'm rolling no because Detroit is afraid. They're always afraid. They always get the draft wrong. It seems like. So I think it's going to be pretty easy. I think we're probably going to see four quarterbacks drafted first. Kyle Pitts is almost guaranteed at five. And then I think probably we're going to see a receiver go. So I think they're going to either go Panay Sewell, offensive lineman. Their offensive line hasn't been good for decades. And if not, they'll go defense. I think they're just going to sit back and not trade that pick and go with an offensive lineman, who knows, even maybe a receiver, so many good receivers. So there's so many good players out there. I think they're going to sit back and use your number seven overall pick. So we're going to say the Detroit Lions do not trade the number seven overall pick.”
Detroit kept the No. 7 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and selected tackle Penei Sewell (Wikipedia 2021 NFL Draft round-1 results). (No. 7: Detroit selected Penei Sewell (no trade))
“It's Mack Jones of Alabama. He's minus 210. He's going to be the third pick, and then everything will fall in after that.”
San Francisco used the No. 3 pick on QB Trey Lance, not Mac Jones, who went No. 15 to New England (Wikipedia 2021 NFL Draft round-1 results). (No. 3: San Francisco selected Trey Lance)
“betonline.ag line. Nationals versus Blue Jays under 8.5 minus 117. Break this one down for us. Well, maybe coming into the season, you wouldn't have expected it, but the Blue Jays and the Nationals are number 1 and 2 in Major League Baseball and unders so far. I thought Toronto was going to be a fabulous hitting team, but unders are 15 and 6 for them. Nationals 6-12 and 1. Max Scherzer goes for the nationals we know what this guy's all made of i mean i would not want to face this guy his stuff is electric um fastball uh slider curveball i mean he'd be the one guy that i'd want to sit if i was playing major league baseball how about this he has an era um 180 so far this year 33 strikeouts in just 25 innings trent thornton is going for uh to be the opener here for for the Blue Jays as a role, you know, where they have that bullpen start and then they'll probably pitch four or five guys. So their bullpen 210 ERA this year, that's good for first in the majors. Both teams have struggled to hit so far this year. I think it continues tonight. I put this line at seven and a half. They got an eight and a half minus 117 We going to play the under with a whole lot of confidence”
TOR 9, WSH 5 — Blue Jays beat the Nationals 9-5, a combined 14 runs, well over the 8.5 total (ESPN).
“Moneyline minus 107. Let's take the Boston Bruins.”
BOS 3, PIT 1 — Bruins beat the Penguins 3-1 in Pittsburgh; Boston's moneyline wins (ESPN).
“over 224 and a half is the play here level two lock”
DAL 133, GS 103 — Mavericks beat the Warriors 133-103, a combined 236 points that clears the 224.5 total (ESPN).
“we're going sailing over nine runs here, minus 112.”
BAL 4, NYY 2 — Orioles beat the Yankees 4-2, a combined 6 runs, well under the total of 9 (ESPN).
“So they're sitting right now, as is Toronto, two games back, Washington for that 10th playoff position. 10 teams make it. Remember, they had that play-in little three-, four-day tournament between 7, 8, 9, and 10. So they're only two games back. This is an important game for them. And then on top of that, you know, Cleveland, it looks like might be missing their best player, Sexton. He's in concussion protocol. I have a feeling he's not coming out of it. Prince, throwing Prince, he's out for the season, had surgery. blowout special here. Line's 10. They might win by 20 to 30 points here.”
TOR 112, CLE 96 — Raptors beat the Cavaliers 112-96, a 16-point margin that covers the -10 spread (ESPN).
“We're going to take the Florida Panthers here. money line minus 110.”
NSH 4, FLA 1 — Predators beat the Panthers 4-1 in Nashville, so Florida's moneyline loses (ESPN).
“So we're going to bet a little and win a lot on the Arizona Diamondbacks, plus 157.”
ATL 5, ARI 4 — Braves beat the Diamondbacks 5-4, so Arizona's moneyline loses (ESPN).
“I'm picking the two points. Wrong team favorite. Golden State wins outright.”
GS 118, DEN 97 — Warriors beat the Nuggets 118-97 at home; Golden State +2 covers by winning outright (ESPN).
“Oakland A's money line minus 131, one here over the Baltimore Orioles.”
OAK 3, BAL 1 — Athletics beat the Orioles 3-1, extending their win streak to 12; Oakland's moneyline wins (ESPN).
“So we're going to lay the 125 and level two lock, Chris All-American Weidman over Uriah Primetime Hall.”
Uriah Hall defeated Chris Weidman by first-round TKO (leg injury) at 0:17 of round 1 at UFC 261, so Weidman's moneyline loses (Wikipedia, sourced to UFC official results). (Hall def. Weidman, TKO (leg injury), Round 1, 0:17)
“We'll play Boston here. Minus one and a half runs. For every $100 you wager, you get back $108.”
SEA 7, BOS 3 (10 innings) — Mariners beat Red Sox 7-3 in 10 innings; Boston's outright loss busts the -1.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“I think this one could go flying over the total here, over six goals, minus 107, blowout special.”
OTT 3, VAN 0 — Senators beat Canucks 3-0; the combined 3 goals stays under the Over 6 line (ESPN box score).
“So I just think that I like Kevin. I just think that he's a guy, comes out of really good fight camp, Arizona combat sports in Tempe, Arizona, a lot of good fighters, Champions have come out of there. 28 years old, getting better with each fight. Lost his first fight in the UFC. It's happened to a lot of fighters. I think he comes back. I'm going to take him here plus 165 for every $100 you wager. Returns 165, level one lock here.”
Danaa Batgerel beat Kevin Natividad by TKO (punches) at 0:50 of Round 1 at UFC 261 (Apr 24, 2021); Natividad's moneyline busts (Wikipedia, sourced from official UFC results). (Batgerel def. Natividad by TKO (punches), Round 1, 0:50)
“Wrong team's favorite, Philadelphia, plus the one. Get it now.”
PHX 116, PHI 113 — Suns beat 76ers 116-113; Philadelphia's 3-point loss busts the +1 line (ESPN box score).
“We going to roll Yankees versus Braves First five innings over four and a half runs minus 110 Break this one down for us, Lee. So it typically makes things easy for you in Major League Baseball when two pitchers are matching up and they have the same strengths and weaknesses. Ian Anderson for the Braves and Corey Kluber for the Yankees have the same weaknesses. They both walk a ton of guys here. So Anderson has the 40th highest walk rate of any pitcher in Major League Baseball at 10.4%. The batters he faces, Kluber, 22nd highest at 13.2%. What's interesting about this one is that the Braves and the Yankees don't chase pitches very much. So their chase rates are 4th and 7th lowest in Major League Baseball so far. So they're not swinging pitches that are out of the zone. The Braves, first five overs, seven and three in the last 10 games. Yankees, first five overs, six and four in the last 10 games. When you look back at last night, these teams left 15 men on base combined throughout the game. And I just don't think that's sustainable here. So let's look for Kluber and also Anderson to struggle. And let's go with the first five over here so we can avoid the bullpens. First five goes flying over.”
Braves led Yankees 2-0 after five innings (both runs scoring in the 5th) en route to a 4-1 win; the First 5 Innings combined total of 2 stays under 4.5 (ESPN box score linescore). (Atlanta 2, New York 0 (F5))
“I'm going to take Brendan Allen here, minus 146, to get the win.”
Brendan Allen submitted Karl Roberson via ankle lock at 4:55 of Round 1 at UFC 261 (Apr 24, 2021); the moneyline cashes (Wikipedia, sourced from official UFC results). (Allen def. Roberson by submission (ankle lock), Round 1, 4:55)
“So we're going to take Brendan Allen to win in round two by submission at plus $650”
Brendan Allen submitted Karl Roberson in Round 1 (4:55), not Round 2, at UFC 261 (Wikipedia, sourced from official UFC results). (Allen def. Roberson by submission (ankle lock), Round 1, 4:55)
“So we're going to take Brendan Allen to win in round two by submission at plus $650 and round three by submission at plus $1,000.”
Brendan Allen submitted Karl Roberson in Round 1 (4:55), not Round 3, at UFC 261 (Wikipedia, sourced from official UFC results). (Allen def. Roberson by submission (ankle lock), Round 1, 4:55)
“So I think it a bigger game for Portland here The Clippers are third, but they're two full games behind Phoenix. I think they're okay, you know, with finishing second or third. So I'll pick seven points. Wrong team favorite. I think this game goes right down to the wire.”
LAC 113, POR 112 — Clippers beat Trail Blazers 113-112; Portland's 1-point loss covers the +7 line (ESPN box score).
“Lay the three, they win this game. Easy blowout special, maybe by double digits. It's Pelicans over the Nets.”
BKN 134, NO 129 — Nets beat Pelicans 134-129; New Orleans's 5-point loss busts the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to go under here, under 5.5 goals. I think we get it easy. Level 2 lock.”
NYI 6, NYR 1 — Islanders beat Rangers 6-1; the combined 7 goals busts the Under 5.5 (ESPN box score).
“Chicago White Sox here, first five money line, minus 115, easy winner.”
White Sox led Indians 3-2 after five innings en route to an 8-5 win; the First 5 Innings moneyline cashes (ESPN box score linescore). (White Sox 3, Cleveland 2 (F5))
“So I think Phoenix is the right side here, plus 2-1⁄2.”
PHX 128, MIL 127 (OT) — Suns beat Bucks 128-127 in overtime; Phoenix's outright win clears the +2.5 line for the Suns bettor (ESPN box score).
“L.A. Dodgers minus the one-and-a-half run here, minus 120.”
SEA 4, LAD 3 — Mariners beat Dodgers 4-3; Los Angeles's 1-run loss busts the -1.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm going to take the Carolina Hurricanes money line plus 104 at Tampa. I think it's a trap. Level one lock for Paramount Sports here.”
TB 3, CAR 2 (OT) — Lightning beat Hurricanes 3-2 in overtime; Carolina's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
- Abdul Razak Alhassan to win in under 1.5 rounds
- Abdul Razak Alhassan to win inside 3 rounds
“We're going to play Al-Hasan here to win the fight in under 1.5 rounds at minus 125. Inside three rounds, that means it's not going to a decision, at minus 130. those two bets are plus 218”
At UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum (Apr 17, 2021), Jacob Malkoun beat Abdul Razak Alhassan by unanimous decision through 3 rounds, so neither parlay leg (under 1.5 rounds, inside 3 rounds) hits (Wikipedia). (Malkoun def. Alhassan by unanimous decision (3 rounds))
“But at Dallas, we're taking Dallas lane, four and a half. They went going away by double digits.”
NY 117, DAL 109 — Knicks beat Mavericks 117-109; Dallas's 8-point loss margin busts the -4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“and we'll play the Seattle Mariners team total over three and a half runs, minus 120, level two lock.”
Mariners beat Astros 6-5 on a walk-off single; Seattle's team total of 6 clears the Over 3.5 line (ESPN scoreboard). (Seattle 6, Houston 5)
“Wrong fighter's favorite. Drekkar Close here, plus 110.”
The Jeremy Stephens vs Drakkar Klose bout scheduled for UFC on ESPN 22 (Apr 17, 2021) was scrapped the day of the event after Klose suffered a spinal injury from being shoved by Stephens at weigh-ins (Wikipedia).
“Boston lay the five and a half on the road. They won by double digits over the Lakers.”
BOS 121, LAL 113 — Celtics beat Lakers 121-113; Boston's 8-point margin clears the -5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“bombs away super duper it's not a level three lock it's a super duper level three lock over eight total runs san diego pittsburgh 12 35 eastern start”
Padres beat Pirates 8-3; San Diego's team total of exactly 8 runs pushes the Over 8 line (ESPN scoreboard). (San Diego 8, Pittsburgh 3)
“Take the five and a half points here. It's a gift. Wrong team's favorite. Houston might even win this game outright.”
HOU 124, IND 132 — Indiana beat Houston 132-124; the Rockets lost by 8, outside the +5.5 spread (ESPN).
“So I rolling with Bryce Harper and the Philly fanatic here in this one Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline minus minus 115”
NYM 5, PHI 1 — New York beat Philadelphia 5-1 in the makeup game; the Phillies moneyline lost (ESPN).
“So we're going to go with the L.A. Angels team total over four and a half runs, minus 125.”
KC 6, LAA 1 — Kansas City beat the Angels 6-1; Los Angeles scored just 1 run, well under their team total of 4.5 (ESPN).
“Let's take Cincinnati here, small underdog, long team favorite. Cincinnati plus 102, they get the win.”
SF 7, CIN 6 — San Francisco beat Cincinnati 7-6; the Reds moneyline lost (ESPN).
“And I think they bounce back Let take the Panthers here Money line minus 112”
FLA 3, DAL 2 — Florida beat Dallas 3-2 in overtime; the Panthers moneyline cashed (ESPN).
“I'm going to lay the one point here. level two lock Portland Trailblazers over the Boston Celtics.”
POR 115, BOS 116 — Boston beat Portland 116-115; the Trail Blazers lost outright, missing the -1 spread (ESPN).
“We're going to go Minnesota Moneyline minus 145 versus Boston. The take back for Boston is plus 125. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right, yeah. So it starts at 210 Eastern and you got the Boston Red Sox who had started off this season. They were ice cold. I mean, they were absolutely horrific to watch, but now all of a sudden they're on fire. They won six straight. They get back J.D. Martinez. They got guys like Deavers. You know they got guys the last couple of days are driving in three four or five runs multiple guys on the team so first place in american league east look like they were going to be a last place or second to last place team so best batting average major league baseball i know minnesota's a good team probably going to be a playoff team but plus 125 here team that's won six straight i'm taking the plus 125 bet a little win a lot.”
BOS 3, MIN 2 — The originally postponed Red Sox-Twins game was made up as Game 1 of an April 14 doubleheader; Boston won 3-2, cashing the Red Sox moneyline (ESPN).
“wrong team favorite Lakers plus three and a half win the game outright”
NY 111, LAL 96 — New York beat the Lakers 111-96; Los Angeles lost by 15, well outside the +3.5 spread (ESPN).
“Memphis is only laying two and a half at home. They might win by double digits here.”
MEM 101, CHI 90 — Memphis beat Chicago 101-90; the Grizzlies covered the -2.5 spread (ESPN).
“Chicago Blackhawks, money line, minus 118, level three lock.”
CHI 4, CBJ 3 — Chicago beat Columbus 4-3 in overtime; the Blackhawks moneyline cashed (ESPN).
“I'm going to take the four and a half in Washington. I think the public's on the wrong side here.”
GSW 107, WSH 110 — Washington beat Golden State 110-107; the Wizards covered the +4.5 spread (ESPN).
“Let's go to the St. Louis Blues. Money line, minus 107.”
STL 9, MIN 1 — St. Louis beat Minnesota 9-1; the Blues moneyline cashed (ESPN).
“Level 2 lock, New York Islanders money line, minus 125.”
NYR 4, NYI 1 — The Rangers beat the Islanders 4-1; the Islanders moneyline lost (ESPN).
“Utah, minus 7 versus Trailblazers. How are you feeling this game? Love it. this will be my second biggest wager of the day for myself. And Utah, very similar to Gonzaga, was involved in a super game. Now, they didn't win it like Gonzaga when they won the semifinal. They did go down in overtime but they trailed practically the entire game probably 95 maybe 98 of the game There was a few lead changes but they were always behind And you just got to use a little extra energy in a game like that So that, now they've got to travel back to Salt Lake City from Phoenix. They lost on Tuesday to the Clippers in L.A., 133-116. They just didn't play well, didn't shoot well. But I like this team. I like the addition of Norman Powell. No one talks about it. I think he's a great addition. Average 19 points a game for Toronto. You add that to Lillard. You add that to McCollum. You add that to Kanner and Derek Jones and Carmelo Anthony coming off the bench. Plus seven? Are you kidding me? I'm putting half my wage on them. Plus seven.”
UTAH 122, POR 103 — Utah beat Portland 122-103; the Trail Blazers lost by 19, well outside the +7 spread (ESPN).
“Utah, minus 7 versus Trailblazers. How are you feeling this game? Love it. this will be my second biggest wager of the day for myself. And Utah, very similar to Gonzaga, was involved in a super game. Now, they didn't win it like Gonzaga when they won the semifinal. They did go down in overtime but they trailed practically the entire game probably 95 maybe 98 of the game There was a few lead changes but they were always behind And you just got to use a little extra energy in a game like that So that, now they've got to travel back to Salt Lake City from Phoenix. They lost on Tuesday to the Clippers in L.A., 133-116. They just didn't play well, didn't shoot well. But I like this team. I like the addition of Norman Powell. No one talks about it. I think he's a great addition. Average 19 points a game for Toronto. You add that to Lillard. You add that to McCollum. You add that to Kanner and Derek Jones and Carmelo Anthony coming off the bench. Plus seven? Are you kidding me? I'm putting half my wage on them. Plus seven. Half on the money line. Wrong team. His favorite, Q.”
UTAH 122, POR 103 — Utah beat Portland 122-103; the Trail Blazers moneyline lost (ESPN).
“This one, the betonline.ag line for Astros. Money line, minus 156 versus the A's. Break this one down for us. Yeah, so Houston and Oakland have been two of the bigger surprises in the league this year, but for opposite reasons. Houston is 5-1 and have been fantastic offensively. They've crushed left-handed pitching here, especially, and they face another lefty tonight in Cole Irvin. So he struggled as a starter. Irvin has a 689 ERA and a 731 ERA in his two career road appearances. Now, Houston offensively leads Major League Baseball and batting average this year against lefties with a 292 batting average. They've averaged eight and a half runs per game in their last eight games against the A's. So situationally, it works out perfect, too. Oakland just won a big walk-off game against the Dodgers yesterday. frankly they didn't deserve to win that game they only had three hits going into extra innings the Dodgers had eight hits they had six walk batters they had bases loaded two different times with zero and one outs produced no runs So they just couldn put any runs across So now you've got Oakland. They travel to Houston in their bullpen, which is the sixth worst in Major League Baseball in ERA. They pitched 14 innings in the last three games. I think Houston will grab the lead early here. Their strong bullpen also will hold it. 6-3, 7-3 final for Houston. Blowout special.”
HOU 6, OAK 2 — Houston beat Oakland 6-2; the Astros moneyline cashed (ESPN).
“So Corbin Burns from Milwaukee ranks just 32nd percentile here in barrel ball percentage, meaning gives up a ton of hard hits. He also has a 640 ERA in his career against the Cards. Milwaukee also uses Josh Hader, probably the best reliever in Major League Baseball in their Wednesday matchup against the Cubs. So I don't think he's going to be available for this one. So on the other side, Adam Wainwright, just not the same pitcher he was years ago. He really struggled in the season opener against the Reds, and I think his confidence is shot. I think he's actually been worse at home than on the road since the start of the last year. So we're going over 7.5, minus 120 in this game.”
STL 3, MIL 1 — St. Louis beat Milwaukee 3-1; the Brewers scored just 1 run, well under their team total of 7.5 (ESPN).
“Bet Perry plus 137.”
Daniel Rodriguez defeated Mike Perry by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26) at UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland (Wikipedia, citing official results). (Rodriguez def. Perry by unanimous decision)
“bet Dern plus 120 and we're going to put them both in a parlay pays over three to one almost three and a half to one so for every hundred dollars you wager you're going to get back over almost 350 dollars parlay bet a little win not a lot win a ton on Mike Perry and Mackenzie Dern”
Mackenzie Dern submitted Nina Nunes (Ansaroff) via armbar in round 1 at UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland (Wikipedia, citing official results). (Dern def. Nunes by submission (armbar), Round 1)
- Mike Perry ML
- Mackenzie Dern ML
“Bet Perry plus 137. bet Dern plus 120 and we're going to put them both in a parlay pays over three to one almost three and a half to one so for every hundred dollars you wager you're going to get back over almost 350 dollars parlay bet a little win not a lot win a ton on Mike Perry and Mackenzie Dern”
The Perry-Dern parlay lost: Daniel Rodriguez beat Mike Perry by unanimous decision, even though Mackenzie Dern submitted Nina Nunes in round 1 (Wikipedia, UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland results).
“BetOnline.ag line, Blue Jays over 4.5, minus 135 versus the Rangers.”
TOR 1, TEX 2 — Texas beat Toronto 2-1; the Blue Jays scored just 1 run, well under their team total of 4.5 (ESPN).
“I'm taking the four and a half points. I think Oklahoma City wins in a game.”
OKC 102, CHA 113 — Charlotte beat Oklahoma City 113-102; the Thunder lost by 11, well outside the +4.5 spread (ESPN).
“Only got to lay two points here. Utah's still the better team. Mini blowout, Utah Jazz over Phoenix.”
PHX 117, UTAH 113 — Phoenix beat Utah 117-113 in overtime; the Jazz lost outright, missing the -2 spread (ESPN).
“The Avalanche regulation money line, minus 130 versus Minnesota. Explain it. Break it down for us. Yeah so sometimes you don want to lay 180 190 200 on a game on a money line You can just go regulation money line That means you got to win it in regulation Can go to overtime or shootout So here the perfect team to do it with If you haven't been watching the Colorado avalanche over the last few weeks, you are missing out. I mean, this stretch of hockey might be the best I've seen played in many years in the NHL. So they're on a 13-0-2 run last 15 games. And in that span, they've outscored teams 67 to 29. That's an average of four and a half goals per game offensively and giving up just 1.9 goals per game defensively. So now in the last 10 games, Colorado's on course first in the NHL in percentage of share of expected goals at 63.12. So they're getting over 63% of their expected goals in the games that they're playing. And then on the other side, Minnesota dead last in expected goals at just 41.48%. So I watched this game when these two played the last game, and Minnesota gave it everything they had in the first period. They were up 1-0, and then Colorado just decided to wake up. They scored four goals in the second period. They ran away with it. So we're not going to take that 180, 190, or 200 juice. we're going to take Colorado and regulation only as I think they run the wild here right out of their own building here. Colorado Avalanche regulation”
MIN 8, COL 3 — Minnesota beat Colorado 8-3 in regulation, so the Avalanche regulation moneyline lost (ESPN).
“So I'm taking Boston here, plus the one, wrong teams favored.”
PHI 106, BOS 96 — Philadelphia beat Boston 106-96 (Embiid 35 points); the Celtics lost outright, busting the +1 spread (ESPN game recap).
“Take the Dallas Stars. Money line, minus 114. I think they win this game by two or three goals.”
CHI 4, DAL 2 — Chicago beat Dallas 4-2, busting the Stars moneyline (ESPN game recap).
“We're going Cincinnati. Team total over 4.5 minus 145 versus Pittsburgh. Let us know. Break this one down for us. Here's what we got, Q. The Reds offense is on fire. Nice. Absolute fire so far this year. They're averaging eight runs per game early in the season. They're hitting a robust 279, good for fourth in the majors. They're also fifth in Major League Baseball in extra base hit percentage, which is a great new way to look out here for this matchup. So they're going to face a Pittsburgh Pirates team that Trevor Cahill is going to be pitching. Cahill, in 2020, ranked in the 15th percentile in Major League Baseball in barrel percentage. What is barrel percentage It means you give up a ton of hard baseballs He was also in the 12th percentile in fastball velocity with his fastball being in the low 90s. So doesn't bring it anymore. This guy's throwing 96, 98, 100 now. So with the wind blowing out in Cincinnati and the Reds starting this year hot offensively, I think this is going to be like batting practice for the Reds. You're going to maybe think that you've got Johnny Bench, Pete Rose, Tony Perez, George Foster. They should be hitting some long balls and running the bases all night long. Yet again on Kelly earlier in this one here. Cincinnati Reds, team total over four and a half runs, level two lock”
CIN 14, PIT 1 — Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh 14-1 (Tyler Naquin two homers, career-high 7 RBI), clearing the Reds team total of over 4.5 runs (ESPN game recap).
“Baltimore versus the Yankees, over 9.5, minus 125. Break this one down for us. Well, first of all, can you believe that the Baltimore Orioles are undefeated? No. I mean, can you – I listen a lot of times to Boston radio. They are brutal, and they are going to just – I don't know what they're going to do. I mean, when they lose the first three games to Baltimore, does Boston, they're just – they're going to be relentless. So that's probably the toughest I've ever seen radio crowd. So here's what I got on this game. So this is one of the more entertaining storylines of the last few years was the Yankees' offensive outbursts against the Orioles. How about this? In the last 29 matchups with the Orioles, they've scored 200 runs exactly. That averages out to 6.89 runs per game. for today's matchup, they get George Lopez. No, not the actor. George Lopez, the pitcher, who has a career, wow, get this, 6.23 career ERA. Like, when I was an agent, for about six, seven years, if I had a guy in ERA of four he would get released 6 I mean they should make this guy pay to just you know pitch or pay for his food So he struggled big time on the road last year. He struggled his entire career as a starter with a 6.37 ERA starting off game. So other pitcher here, Jordan Montgomery, not great either. So Montgomery has been inconsistent in his career so far, and I'm really impressed so far with the Orioles' lineup. You know, they scored 18 runs in three games to open the year. The wind was blowing out to the short porch in Yankee Stadium. So I think both starters could struggle in this one. Unless the Orioles' bullpen can shut down that star-powered offense of the Yankees, I can see a lot of fireworks here in the Bronx. So we're taking the over nine and a half. I think it flies over. Not going to be a level one. It's going to be a level two lock.”
NYY 7, BAL 0 — The Yankees shut out Baltimore 7-0 (Giancarlo Stanton grand slam), a combined 7 runs that busts the over 9.5 (ESPN game recap).
“I think Phoenix lays it on them here. we're going with a blowout special they're favored by 11 they'll double it up win by 22 to 24 Phoenix big over the Houston Rockets blowout special”
PHX 133, HOU 130 — Phoenix beat Houston 133-130, a 3-point margin that busts the -11 spread (ESPN game recap).
“Baylor plus a four and a half. Our wrong team is favored.”
BAY 86, GONZ 70 — Baylor beat Gonzaga 86-70 to win the national championship, covering the +4.5 spread by a 16-point margin (ESPN game recap).
“So I like the Knicks, six points at home. I think it's too much here. Wrong team favorite.”
DAL 99, NY 86 — Dallas beat New York 99-86; the Knicks lost outright, busting the +6 spread (ESPN game recap).
“The Baylor Bears blow out city blowout special. Lay the five. They win this game by double digits.”
BAY 78, HOU 59 — Baylor routed Houston 78-59 in the Final Four, covering the -5 spread by a 19-point margin (ESPN game recap).
“Give me the San Francisco Giants over three-and-a-half runs. Team total, San Francisco, over three-and-a-half runs, minus 135.”
SF 6, SEA 3 — San Francisco beat Seattle 6-3, clearing the Giants team total of over 3.5 runs (ESPN game recap).
“Under 11.5 minus 120, we call it the wrong team favorite.”
COL 8, LAD 5 — Colorado beat LA Dodgers 8-5, a combined 13 runs that busts the under 11.5 (ESPN game recap).
“He should have a field day in this one here over nine and a half plus 105 here. Blowout special.”
BAL 3, BOS 0 — Rained out on April 1, the Orioles-Red Sox opener was played as a makeup game on April 2; Baltimore won 3-0, a combined 3 runs that busts the over 9.5 (ESPN game recap).
“And like the White Sox here, we'll take them first five innings minus 120. This is my level three lock right out of the gate.”
The White Sox led the Angels 3-2 through 5 innings (Eaton's 5th-inning two-run homer put Chicago ahead), cashing the first-five moneyline; the Angels rallied to win 4-3 in the full game (ESPN box score). (White Sox 3, Angels 2 (through 5 innings))
“The Knicks minus 3 versus Minnesota Break this one down for us. They have some good players on Minnesota. Right. Just a losing franchise. The coaching staff isn't any good. They can, like, Pounds can have great games. I mean, he's playing out of his mind the last four or five games, but they just continue to lose. A lot of selfishness. And it's just, you know, they're looking at stats, these guys. And I think if they're good, they're going to want out. How bad are they? How about this? You think of teams being better at home? Well, both teams are the opposite. Minnesota, 8-21 against the spread the last 29 home games. 2-6 against the spread the last 8 as a home underdog. In the last 56 home games, they are a horrendous, a wretched, a pathetic 17-38-1 against the spread. If you're back in Minnesota and playing them at home, you're living under a bridge. Whereas the Knicks, they play better on the road. 4-0 against the spread the last four road games. They were embarrassed by the heat. Good coach. Great coach. Tom Thibodeau, you know who will have him fired up for this game. He's great off a loss. Give me the Knicks, minus a small spot, minus three and a half. First blowout special.”
MIN 102, NY 101 — Minnesota beat New York 102-101; the Knicks lost outright, busting the -3.5 spread (ESPN game recap).
“Milwaukee, minus nine versus the Lakers. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Well, Minnesota was bad. The Lakers might actually be worse, and they're going to start Andre Drummond. So the guy hasn't played in a month, and you're going to put him in a uniform. You're going to start him. I think they're trying to build his confidence, trying to show him, oh, we need you for next year. It's all sales job. But I think he's going to flounder here. I think he's going to shoot a bunch of shots. I think he is not going to look good. The Lakers, 5-11 against the spread the last 16 as a home underdog. Milwaukee has lost three straight games on this road trip, but they are getting healthy late at nine. This is my double blowout here. They win this game by 20 to 25 points. Bucks big over the Lakers.”
MIL 112, LAL 97 — Milwaukee beat Los Angeles 112-97, covering the Bucks -9 spread (ESPN game recap).
“We're going to roll with the BetOnline.ag line for this one. Avalanche versus Arizona. Team total over three and a half goals, minus 125. Break this one down for us. So I don't want to lay three to one on a game here. I just think it's too much. You lose a game like that, but losing three games. So this game could be really tough to watch for Coyote fans. I don't know if you've seen the Colorado Avalanche recently, but this team, they look like the Harlem Globetrotters on ice. They have not lost in regulation. in 11 straight games. They've outscored their opponents over that span, 48-19. Tonight, they get the Coyotes' third string goaltender here, Aiden Hill, because of injuries to the top two goaltenders for Arizona. He's 0-3 on the road this year, averaging over three goals against per game as well. And Colorado gets her revenge spot here on two levels. So Arizona beat them the other night in overtime because Colorado's backup goaltender gave away the game, essentially. And Arizona is actually on the opposite end of the spectrum here analytically. They hold the six worst expected goals share in the NHL of the last ten and six worst high danger chances percentage in that span. So I really do think that this game could get out of hand early for the Coyotes. I wouldn't be surprised to see a three-goal first period here out of the avalanche in this one. They get off to fast starts early and often. And they're truly a special team to watch. And this could be a beatdown from the beginning here. Let's go over the team total of three and a half goals.”
COL 9, ARI 3 — Colorado beat Arizona 9-3, clearing the Avalanche team total of over 3.5 goals (ESPN game recap).
“Alejandra Lora, minus 175 versus Kana Watanabe. Give me one more and break this one down. Okay, so before I give you this, I just want to let everyone know, baseball starts tomorrow. Yeah, buddy. I mean, bright and early. So got a full schedule. So we are going to release. We're going to get up bright and early. We going to release a podcast at 6 a in the morning I going to give away a full card of selection so you can get off to a big winning first day in baseball So don't miss that at 6 in the morning. And here's a fight. Just because the UFC is not fighting this weekend doesn't mean we can't win in the mixed martial arts. So Bellator just at a level under the UFC. They have this girl named Alejandra Azul Alara. Only 26. She's from Medellin, Colombia, and she's a good striker, but even better on the ground. She can do ground and pound. She can do submissions. She'll crank that neck. Kana Watanabe is from Japan. She's fought inferior competition. Now, the average person is going to look at it, and they're going to either pass on the fighter, but the other side. So, Watanabe is 9-0-1. Laura is 9-3, but all three of her losses were to an ex-Bellator champion. She's a champion now. She fought another high-level Bellator girl who fought for a championship. And one of the other girls is in the UFC. She's fought better competition. This is like the championship fight last week in the UFC. The country, everyone was betting steep. They're like, oh, he already beat him before. He'll beat him again. He's the underdog. Well, Laura is the favorite for a reason. Yeah, you've got to lay 175, but I think she's just going to do ground and pound or she's going to get a submission here. I like Alejandra, Azul, Laura. She gets the easy win on Friday night in Bellator, bet it big.”
Kana Watanabe defeated Alejandra Lara by split decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) at Bellator 255, so Lara's moneyline busts (Bellator 255 official results). (Watanabe by split decision)
“Gonzaga, minus 8.5 versus USC. Break this one down for us, Lee. Wow. At first glance, I thought, wow, this is going to be a game where Gonzaga, they just run away and hide. But then you watch USC. I think they're playing at the highest level of the entire season. But here's what I think USC will cover. Even though Gonzaga shoots, how about this? 63.9% from two-point range. USC, number one in two-point defense at 41.5% overall. So they're the number one defense in the Pac-12. Yeah, it looks like they're playing run and gun, but bottom line is I think USC has the athletes. I think they have the defensive prowess to stay with this team. So I'm going to take the 8.5 points. I think Gonzaga's going to have a tough game somewhere along the line, even before the finals. I think this is going to be that game. I'm taking the 8.5. Wrong team favorite. I think this is a one or two possession game. It's going to be a tough one.”
GONZ 85, USC 66 — Gonzaga beat USC 85-66 in the Elite Eight; USC lost outright, busting the +8.5 spread (ESPN game recap).
“Denver minus five versus 76ers. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Wow. So a couple things just going in before the game, just some notes. Philadelphia, number one seed in the East. A lot of people don't realize that, so they played some really good basketball in March, 10-2, but Denver, not far behind, 10-3. So Philadelphia was on a roll, and then the Clippers put them in their place on Saturday night. What did they do? They won 122-112 in L.A. This is the fifth game of this road trip year. And Philadelphia, even though they take care of business, they're 2-5 as a road underdog. So Denver, the number two shooting team in the NBA, 48.8%. Number five, three-point shooting team at almost 39%. I just think their psyche is sky high. They brought in Aaron Gordon. In his first game, it looked like he'd been there for a couple years. So I think they have all the components maybe to give the Lakers the biggest challenge in the West. It's not the Clippers. It's not Utah, in my opinion. I think it might be Denver here. Blowout special. Denver Nuggets minus the five by double digits over the Philadelphia 76ers.”
DEN 104, PHI 95 — Denver beat Philadelphia 104-95, covering the -5 spread by a 9-point margin (ESPN game recap).
“the betonline.ag line for this one the baylor bears minus seven and a half versus arkansas break this one down for us lee wow i think this is the best matchup of the four games here today and tomorrow. So you have the number three offensive efficiency team in Baylor, the number nine defensive efficiency team in Arkansas matching up. So you're going to see some greatly skilled players on both sides of the court here. So I just think it's going to be tighter than the point spread here. Give both teams credit. Baylor really came on the second half of the last game, Arkansas. They ground out their win over Texas Tech a couple games ago. They sneak past Oral Roberts here, but I think it might come down to coaching. Eric Musselman, I would give him the edge here over Scott Drew. I mean, Scott Drew, I just think, has a lot of pressure on him here. Eric Musselman, in his second year, has done a fabulous job here. This line should be four points. Baylor shouldn't be giving seven and a half. Wrong team favorite. Arkansas takes this game down to the wire. I would not be surprised, Q, if they win the game outright.”
81-72 — Baylor beat Arkansas 81-72 in the Elite Eight; Arkansas lost by 9, so Arkansas +7.5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline line for this one Memphis minus 7 versus Houston How are you feeling this one All right, so Memphis is streaking right now. Memphis is a team that's under the radar. I think they're going to make the playoffs. They're ninth in the West, so they're not just going through the motions. They are under the radar. Everyone's talking about Phoenix. Amazing story this year. Everyone's talking about Utah. Yeah, amazing story how good they are. Everyone's talking about the Knicks, how much improved they are. But Memphis has the fifth-best spread record at 25-18. They're facing a Houston team that had lost just five games ago. They lost 20 straight games. Yeah, they won two of the last four. But now they have Kelly O'Neill and Lenik here and Christian Wood possibly starting and playing a lot of minutes together. I just think they're too weak on defense. I just think that Memphis, just too skilled on offense. I think they run them out of the gym. Blowout special. Memphis pulverizes Houston tonight.”
120-110 — Memphis beat Houston 120-110, so the Grizzlies moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“line for this one. Clippers minus 2.5 versus Milwaukee. Thoughts on this one? The Clippers are, you know, they get no respect because they play in the same building as the Lakers. But they've won five straight. They seem to be putting it together. They acquired a Rajon Rondo who's no one playing this game. I think they realize they need that playoff toughness here. You talked about banged up. Milwaukee has six players are questionable. They could be missing three of their top five scorers tonight in Chris Middleton, Drew Holiday, and Bobby Portis. They're 1-7. They just don't perform against top-level teams. 1-7 against the spread the last eight versus teams that have a record that won at least 60% of their games here. These are two teams that want to aspire to be the best in their conference and win it all, but just have fallen short last year, in Milwaukee's case, the last couple years. So I like the Clippers here. Only laying two and a half points here at home with all those injuries here. I think Milwaukee sputters again here. This is my lock of the day here. LA Clippers big time level two lock over Milwaukee.”
129-105 — The Clippers beat Milwaukee 129-105; the 24-point margin covers LA Clippers -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“line for this one. Miami minus four and a half versus the Knicks. Go ahead and break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so I always talk about a lot of times playing a game early before the line moves. I'm going to say wait on this line. Yeah, we're going to grade this game on a four and a half point Miami Heat favorite, but I'm waiting on this one. My bet has not gone in. Julius Randle having an amazing season for the Knicks. There is a team playing out of their minds. They're 24-22. Tom Thibodeau, amazing coach. He's great for two or three years, so he's going to ride them. But he's a game-time decision with a thigh injury. I have a feeling he may not play in this game. So we'll play it at 4.5 right now. But, you know, these two teams have played each other twice. Miami won the first game, laying 5.5. They won by 6. And then there's a 6.5-point favorite. They only won by 2 in Miami. But Miami's streaky, 11-12, and now they've lost six straight. But the big factor here is Goran Drogic is back. And I think when he's running the offense, they're a different team. They're fourth in scoring defense, allowing just 44.6% of the shots made here. I think Miami, this is going to be the start of their run here. You know, you play against teams and you keep riding them when they're losing, but this looks like they're going to win the next seven out of ten against the spread, or maybe eight out of ten. It starts tonight. Hidden gem, Miami Lane, four and a half over the New York Knicks in the Big Apple.”
98-88 — Miami beat New York 98-88; the 10-point margin covers Miami -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“Milwaukee minus 6 versus Celtics Thoughts on this one? So I think the Boston Celtics have to feel a lot better today than they felt yesterday. So what they did was they finally got themselves a center. I think that was the missing piece. Maybe not that it's going to give them a championship, but, you know, they've got a guy now, you know, that can go up and he can make some things happen in the middle. And Evan Forney is a pretty impressive guy. So I just think that they're excited about that. The last two games, these two teams have played have been decided by two points or less. I also noticed the Bucs have a tendency, they're very loose with the ball at home. I mean, a lot more turnovers, a little more freewheeling, and I think they play a little better when they're a little more structured here. So I like Boston. They're 21-23. Trust me, a month from now you're going to look back and say, wow they went on some kind of run i think it starts tonight wrong team favorite boston they take this game down to the wire they might even beat milwaukee outright”
122-114 — Boston beat Milwaukee 122-114; the 8-point margin covers Boston +6 (ESPN box score).
“Gonzaga minus 13 versus Creighton. Break this one down for us, Lee. All right. So, Gonzaga's a special team. And I'm actually even hearing from someone who knows his team real well, lives out there, telling me that next year they can even be better. I mean, their 9th through 12th guys are scary talented. So, I think Creighton got lucky. I think Creighton got to face some teams. You know, sometimes it's just the luck of the draw. And, you know, what they had to face Creighton early in this tournament, I think, really helped them out. I don't think this is one of the better Creighton teams. They faced UC Santa Barbara, who's not any good. They only won 63-62. Then they faced Ohio. Ohio had no business being in that game. Ohio pulls off the big upset in the first round here. I think this Gonzaga team is going to be in the Final Four. So they kind of cruised, cruised, I believe it was to the 16-point win in the last round against Oklahoma. I think they win this game by 25 to 30 points. I think they make a statement that Gonzaga Bulldogs blow out City over the Creighton Blue Jays.”
83-65 — Gonzaga beat Creighton 83-65 in the Sweet 16 on March 28, 2021, so the Gonzaga moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“Loyola Chicago minus 6 versus Oregon State How are you feeling this one Oh, I love this game. Okay. Lots of layers. Starts off here with Loyola Chicago. You know, I talked last week about, you know, these Abilene Christian kids. They were so excited to play Texas. Every single kid on Abilene Christian, if they were offered a full scholarship by Texas. They wouldn't say, where do I sign? They would have signed it in a Texas second. So what happens here is same kind of thing. Loyola Chicago last week plays Illinois. Every single kid they would have signed with Illinois in a heartbeat. So they pull off maybe the biggest upset in the tournament. Now they're going to face an Oregon State team. I just think it's tough to get up again here for an Oregon State team that is nothing, nothing compared to what they were midseason. Midseason, this team was unwatchable. I like the coaching staff for Oregon State Beavers. They have slowly built up this team. They've added plays. If you watch on offense, added a couple different defenses. They match up well every game. They show a little something different and give their opponents troubles. And then here is the topper. Here's what makes this play not a level one, not a level two, but a level three lock. Both teams play at a real slow pace. In fact, 304th and 340th out of about 350 teams. So Loyola Chicago to cover, they're going to have to have four possessions better than Oregon State. I don't see it here. Level three lock. The Oregon State Beavers. Shock the world. Sister Jean, she's going down. Give me the Beavers here. Level three lock.”
65-58 — Oregon State beat Loyola Chicago 65-58 in the Sweet 16 on March 27, 2021; the 7-point margin covers Oregon State +6 (ESPN box score).
“The Knicks minus three versus the Wizards. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so these are COVID times. We're having back-to-back games, and these two teams played each other, you know, just a couple nights ago, and now they play each other, same venue, and it's at the Knicks, and the Knicks destroyed them. So you would think that the Lions should be like six, six and a half. I mean, the Lions only three. They're begging you, begging you to take the Knicks. So don't fall for the trap here. Washington in that game was absolutely horrible. And so it's all about their key players with Washington. And in that game, how about this? We had Russell Westbrook was horrendous. He was three for 14. And Ryan Hachimura, he was absolutely awful, five for 13. And Bradley Beal, who doesn't have too many bad games, he was six for 15 and 0 for three from three-point land. So I don't think you could find three key players play any worse here. Their defense was terrible. Scotty Brooks was quoted saying, they outplayed us. They outplayed us from the start and if you don play with physicality and determination and some grit New York is going to do that So I think that the motivation there I love teams that lost that first game They get the shot right back at them real quick. And so we're going to take advantage of it, and we're not going to fall for the trap. Wrong team favorite. Washington wins outright.”
106-102 — New York beat Washington 106-102, so the Wizards moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“Philly, minus 5.5 at the Lakers. How are you feeling this one? Okay, so not many superstars left for this game here. LeBron James is out. Anthony Davis is out. Joel Embiid is out. So what happens? Who's stepping up here? Tobias Harris. Here's a guy that, you know, everyone made fun. Oh, you don't give this guy, you know, an elite contract, but he's a leading scorer for the team. And this Lakers team, even though they're ranked number one in defense, You can take all those statistics and put them in the trash because without James and Davis, they are a different team here. So this Philly team is pretty darn elite. 1-5 is 6 without Joel Embiid here, and they can play some small balls. So just think that the Lakers just biding their time. Looks like their two-star is going to be out for close to another two weeks here. so also 6-14 against the spread 6 the last 20 games from playing on one day rest So this is an old team the Lakers This is a battered team They turn the ball over early and often without their two stars. We're taking Philly. We're going to lay the 5-1⁄2, and I think this line is going to go up, so get on it early. Blow-up special. Philly at the Lakers to win this game by double”
109-101 — Philadelphia beat the Lakers 109-101; the 8-point margin covers Philadelphia -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“Philadelphia versus the Rangers. Over 6-118. Break this one down for us. Okay, another game I think the line's going to go up, so get on it early. Games involving the Philadelphia Flyers simply should not be set over under at six right now. The Sharps and even the public are realizing this as the odds, I think, are going to end up at six and a half. The Flyers goaltenders are in pace for the worst five on five save percentage, not this year, in NHL history right now at just 884. 84. So things are getting really bad and I don't see them improving anytime soon. In their last game, the Rangers beat Philadelphia. Get this nine to nothing. That's right. Nine to nothing. This wasn't baseball. This was hockey. This wasn't football. But the problem here for the Flyers is that they're going to want to pick up the pace. So they got to put some pressure. They got to try to score some goals. And I just think they're going to give up some shorthanded and some odd man rushes here way too often. So I think they're going to score some goals here. But I think we're going to see something like a 6-3 final here and they lose again. So we're playing over 6-1, 18. You want to watch an open game, a fun game. This is one you want to tune into in the NHL tonight. As Oprah would say, you get a goal. You get a goal. You get a goal. We all get goals. Lots of goals being scored in this one. And we're going to make this a level two lock. There it is. Level two lock and goals for”
8-3 — The Rangers beat the Flyers 8-3; the combined 11 goals covered over 6 (ESPN box score).
“you're going with houston minus 125 to make the playoffs that's the betonline.ag line for the astros minus 125 to make the playoffs go ahead and Explain this one to us. Okay, so this is about fading the Angels, the Mariners, and the Rangers until they prove me wrong. So the Rangers could be one of the worst teams in the league this year. The Mariners have maybe the worst pitching depth in Major League Baseball. And a healthy Anthony Rendon, I don't think is going to be enough to push the Angels into contention. And so it should come down again to the Astros and the athletics for the division pennant here. The Astros lost George Springer in the offseason, but they had a lot of bullpen health here. Jordan Alvarez, he's healthy again. Verlander, Justin Verlander will come back at one point. And also, I think the Altuve-Corea struggles of last year were overrated based on underlying numbers. and the Astros also signed some other key players to fill in for Verlander until he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. So this just feels like a good year for the Astros to shut everyone up here and continue to play the villain yet again. All the distractions are starting to wane, and I think they're going to come to this season almost fully healthy except for Verlander. And their list is the third favorite to win their side. So it's not just the division. They're picked as the third favorite to go to the World Series. So just minus 125 to make the playoffs. Give me a bunch of that.”
The Astros went 95-67 and won the AL West, clinching a playoff berth in 2021 (Wikipedia 2021 Houston Astros season, sourced from official MLB standings).
“Denver, minus two and a half versus the Raptors. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, Toronto is D-team. I mean, if you put odds on whether some key players get traded I think Toronto will be number one And it looks like Kyle Lowry and also Powell good chance that they going to be traded I mean there too much chatter going on here They've lost nine straight games. They were sitting at 17-17 just a few weeks back, and now they're 17-26. Their season's over. They have no home court advantage. They're playing in Tampa. They're playing a team, Denver, 9-1 last nine games. I'm sorry, last ten games here when they played Toronto. And also, how about this? They fare really well against Eastern Conference opponents. 6-1 against the spread of the last seven versus the Eastern Conference team. So teams from the other conference really don't know how to play them. And I just think Toronto, I think Lowry, Powell, and maybe a few others It'll be thrown in if trades are made. They're going to be very distracted today. So let's go with Denver. Laying the two-and-a-half blowout special. Easy win.”
135-111 — Toronto beat Denver 135-111; Denver lost by 24, so Denver -2.5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“over 145 and a half for ucla and alabama break this one down for us lee you sounded like keith jackson there for a second i thought it was alabama One of my favorite calls there Okay so we gave you Francis Nagano yesterday I think sometimes you've got to jump on these future plays here. Coming up Sunday night, and Alabama, I think, is going to push the pace. Now, UCLA against a bunch of teams, you know, they slowed it down. playing against a team that was inept yesterday in that game against Abilene Christian. But when they played teams like Oregon, 82-74 score. I mean, there was a bunch of games they had where if the pace was there, they pushed it. So that's important. Yes, it does take two to tango, but I just think that you're going to see a UCLA team just push it up and down the floor with Alabama because Alabama can score. They hit threes. Listen to the last six games. They scored 96, had one bad game, scored 68, but 80, 73, 85, and 89. That's an average of almost 82 points a game. So let's say if it's similar to the Oregon game, 82-74, then we're going to go over. You know, that's 156. So I think it's going to be a game in the 150s here. I think the line's going to go up. So you want to get on it right now. And like I said, I think it's going to be similar to the score like they had against the Oregon Ducks, against Arizona State, where it's 80-79. I mean, they had a slew of high-scoring games for a while against Washington State. They scored 91 Arizona, 81. 81 the other Arizona State game so just look right down the line I think we're going to see up and down play level two lock for Sunday over 145 and a half UCLA and Alabama lock it in now”
88-78 — UCLA beat Alabama 88-78 in overtime in the Sweet 16 on March 28, 2021; the combined 166 points covered over 145.5 (ESPN box score).
“Portland, minus 3.5 versus the Nets. How are you feeling this one? Okay, so sometimes when you look at results, you know, they make sense. And certainly, Portland, they play a back-to-backer against Dallas. They win the first game, and Dallas blew them out in the second game. You're going to see that a lot of times after a team loses that first game. They've got the incentive, and Portland laid a clunker. No answer what's about it. They lose 132-92 to Dallas on Sunday. It was just everything went wrong. They shot 38% from the field. They shot 9-41 from three-point land. But before that, they were consistent. Look at their last eight or ten games. Brooklyn, on the other hand, now they've got to play this game without Kyrie Irving, with no Kevin Durant. They're one and four the last five when playing on one day's rest. And Portland, they played well on Tuesdays, eight and two against the spread the last ten Tuesday games, and five and two against the spread the last seven, following a double-digit home loss here. I think they'll be ready for this game. I think it's going to be a shootout. and I think Portland comes out on top. I'm laying the three and a half here. Blowout special. Portland Trailblazers over the favorite in the East, the Brooklyn Nets.”
116-112 — Brooklyn beat Portland 116-112 outright, so Portland -3.5 lost (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.ag line for this one, Blackhawks versus the Panthers, going to go over 6-118. Lee, what are your thoughts on this one? Okay, so tonight is a good night to bet the over on two of the better offensive teams in the NHL in this situation. So the Blackhawks are only 17th in the NHL in overall goals per game at 2.91 goals per game, but they're third in the NHL in goals per game at home at 3.77. On the other side, we have the Florida Panthers, who were fifth in goals per game at 3.35, but are first in the league on goals scoring here on the road at 3.86 goals per game. So sometimes it's a weird thing, but certain teams just play better offensive hockey in specific instances and situations, especially in a situation like this one. Chicago's lost four straight games, but all of them were on the road. Now they get to return to the United Center here with a bit of rest. It just feels like this should be a more comfortable spot here for them to score some goals here. Florida coming off a loss to their rival Tampa Bay a few nights ago. They scored five goals per game in their last four matchups with the Blackhawks this year. Both teams really should come, I think, flying here, and then both goaltenders have struggled statistically as of late, and both teams are looking to bounce back. So I expect an open game here, and I think something like a 5-3 score here either way here. We're going over six. Chicago Blackhawks, Florida Panthers. We're going to call it a level one lock.”
3-2 — Chicago beat Florida 3-2; the combined 5 goals fell short of the over 6 total (ESPN box score).
“Francis Ngannou the predator minus 123 versus Stipe Miocic What are your thoughts on this one Lee Two really good guys. I mean, two guys that I root for. Ngannou, you know, quiet guy, goes about his business, never in trouble. And then Stipe Miocic, I mean, what a story. Here's a guy, he's a firefighter paramedic back in his hometown in Ohio. He's the heavyweight champion. And, you know, he lost originally to Cormier, lost his title. Then he came back and beat him twice. Just carries a belt the way you want to see it kept here. And these two guys actually fought each other. They fought everyone. It seems like the same guys over the last couple of years. But they fought back in January of 2018. Miocic dominated the fight, unanimous decision, and just controlled. and Ngannou, he was on top of him, took him down, and Ngannou couldn't get up. So Miocic is 38. Ngannou's 34. A lot of guys come into their own between 33 and 35, I've noticed, in the heavyweight division. I think you realize sometimes when you lose a fight, the advantage preparing for the next fight goes to the fighter that lost that first fight, and Ngannou realized if he keeps the fight, if he stays up and he throws punches, he's going to win this fight. and he has Kamaru Usman in his corner. He's been training on his takedown defense and wants to be even taken down how to get up. So I think you're going to see a much improved ground game from the Predator here. And take nothing away from Yelchik's 38. And sometimes, you know, your fruit reflexes go there. And, you know, you get hit, and the punch that you get hit by when you're 32, 33 doesn't affect you as much. And when you're 38, sometimes you get knocked out cold. And I think Ngannou learned from his loss. I think that he's going to catch Miocic. If he's taken down, it's going to be once or twice, not every single round like he was taken around down in the first fight. I'm going with the Predator here. And the reason we're giving this fight out early, I think it's going to go up. It's minus 123. So here's a guy that lost the first fight. He's not even the champion. And he's a 123 favorite. He's a favorite for a reason. I think it's going to go up to about 140, 145. So let's jump on it early. Let's take the Predator here, minus 123, and I think he's going to be the champion after Saturday night.”
Francis Ngannou knocked out Stipe Miocic in round 2 (0:52) at UFC 260 on March 27, 2021 to win the heavyweight title, so the Ngannou moneyline won (Wikipedia UFC 260 results, corroborating official UFC result). (Ngannou def. Miocic by KO (punch), Round 2, 0:52)
“Creighton, minus six versus Ohio. How are you feeling this one? Well, a lot of wrong teams were favored over the weekend. So I think I found another one here. So Creighton, this is not one of their better teams. And even though we didn't win a lot of games for my clients, and like I said, it was a really bad start, the teams that identified as weaker than years past, they really did not fare well. And Creighton's another one of them. So they squeaked by UC Santa Barbara, 63-62. Before that, look at some of the teams that they lost to. They lost to Villanova by 12. They lose to Xavier, who's awful this year, by eight. And then they lost to Georgetown by 25 in the conference tournament. This is all since February 27th. This is not one of your better Creighton teams. So they've lost eight games already this year. Now they're going to face an Ohio team that can score. They score almost five more points than Creighton. They're 22nd in the country, scoring 80.1 points per game. They hit 48.7% of their shots from the field. That's 16th. They even shoot free throws much better than Creighton, 70% to 64%. And a lot of people don't realize this. They actually played Illinois early in the year in November, and they lost only by two points there, 77-75. They won 10 of 11 games. You don't want to go against a hot team this time of year. Give me Ohio. Plus six, they win this game outright over Creighton.”
72-58 — Creighton beat Ohio 72-58; Ohio lost by 14, so Ohio +6 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“Iowa, minus 5.5 versus the Ducks. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so Iowa is going to play an Oregon Ducks team that was, I thought, fortunate to advance to the round of 32 without playing a game. You know, their opponent ends up getting COVID. And sometimes that's a negative because I think it takes some time to settle into the big dance here. And you see that some of these teams will score 6, 8, 10 points in the first, you know, 10 minutes of the game. And I don't know if they're going to do that against Iowa because Iowa plays such a fast pace. But, you know, Iowa's the type of team with so many snipers that they could open up a big early lead and just never look back. So the Hawkeyes are also physical, and they're just a different type and brand of basketball than anything I think that the Ducks have seen in the Pac-12. Iowa great three shooting team 38 from the field That 10th in the And Luke Garza he a matchup nightmare Iowa a stellar also Seems like they play well on Mondays. They used to play on Monday nights a lot of big games in the Big Ten. 7-2-1 against the spread the last 10 times. They played a Monday game here. So, no hangover for them. Blowout special. Iowa Hawkeyes minus 5.5. Big time over the Oregon Ducks.”
95-80 — Oregon beat Iowa 95-80 outright; Iowa -5.5 lost (ESPN box score).
“UCLA, minus 4.5 versus Abilene Christian is still dancing. What are your thoughts on this game, Lee? So if Abilene Christian keeps winning, you're going to say it all next week. Yes. I think you're going to say it almost every day. Yes. Great story. Taking down Texas, you know, every single kid on that Abilene Christian team dreamed of being recruited by Texas, being recruited by Texas Tech, all these other schools that were seated so much higher than them. But give them credit. But they are not that good of a team. I mean, until the Texas win against top competition, they only scored 44 points and a loss to Texas Tech. They lost by 13 to Arkansas early in the year. And that went over Texas. Texas committed 23 turnovers. They look like a high school team just rolling the ball around. I thought Shaka Smart really got outcoached. He should have called him out two or three times and just settled his team. He did not do that. So I'm impressed with UCLA. They looked good in the tournament so far. It wins over Michigan State and BYU. Dominated both games. I think they very athletic They don turn the ball over I like their shot selection This isn going to be a level one lock It not going to be a level two lock It not even going to be a level three lock for the first time ever. This is like my game of the year. I would not normally give this game out on this podcast if I was winning. It's that big. I will be saving it for my clients. This would be my game of the year in college basketball, a level five lock. I just want to make it up to everyone. I want them to go big. I want them to back up that Brinks truck. UCLA minus four and a half by double digits over Abilene Christian.”
67-47 — UCLA beat Abilene Christian 67-47, a 20-point margin that covers UCLA -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“Red Raiders, minus four, versus Utah State. Thoughts on this one? Well, the Aggies have a center. They have a big man. And I think they're just going to make Texas Tech shoot from the outside. Texas Tech, not much of a score here. But when they turn it up, when they give that effort, they play some incredible defense. So I think this is going to be one of those games where it's going to be like 48-45. And I'm not talking about regulation. That might be overtime or double overtime. Give me Utah State here plus the four points. I don't know who's going to win this game, but I can't see more than two or three points in one possession separating these two teams. Wrong team favorite, Utah State. I think they might knock off Texas Tech.”
53-65 — Texas Tech beat Utah State 65-53 in the NCAA tournament first round; Utah State +4 lost by 12 (ESPN box score).
“Houston, minus 19-1-1 versus Cleveland State. How you feeling this one, Lee? All right, so I've got, and I filled out three brackets. I've got Houston going to the finals and two of them. But they don't have to win this game by 20, 30, or 40 points. All they've got to do is win it. I think they're looking ahead to Clemson and a big-name opponent. Cleveland State, how about this? They've got fresh off five consecutive losing seasons. I think they're going to slow down the game here. They are really good at forcing turnovers. And so this is not going to be one of those games where Houston keeps their starters in long. I think they're going to be up 15 to 18 points, cruise to the victory. Line is 19 and a half. Give me some Cleveland State Vikings all day long against the Houston Cougars.”
87-56 — Houston beat Cleveland State 87-56 in the NCAA tournament first round; Cleveland State +19.5 lost by 31 (ESPN box score).
“FSU, minus 10.5 versus UNC Greensboro. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Well, the only negative news coming out of Florida State is their head coach, Leonard Hamilton, blew out his Achilles tendon yesterday. So not good news for the coach, but he actually doesn't do a whole lot of coaching. It's Stan Jones. So I know that because he was the head coach of Miami. really respect Stan Jones. If you don't have a really good assistant, might be a different story, but they come at you in waves. Florida State, so much depth, so much speed, so much outside shooting. Happen to check out and see UNC Greensboro, one of their home games this year. They're at a size disadvantage, speed disadvantage. They might end up getting 8-10 shots blocked. What Florida State likes to do is they like to funnel you into the paint and then you're stuck. It's all these large tentacles that are coming from everywhere and you can't get shots off. I like Florida State. Blowout special. Laying 10.5 points. I think they double the point spread here. They win by 20-25.”
54-64 — Florida State beat UNC Greensboro 64-54 in the NCAA tournament first round (played March 20, not March 19), winning by 10, failing to cover -10.5 (ESPN box score).
“Longhorns, minus 8 versus Abilene Christian. How are you feeling this one? Okay, so we're going up against the team where the city where I was born. I was born in Abilene, Texas. My dad was in the Air Force Base as a dentist. So it's tough to go up against him. But I'm going up against also or backing one of my colleges here in the University of Texas. So this is a fun matchup. And Abilene Christian is a fun team to watch. They've got one big guy, seven-footer, Colton Cole, and they've got a bunch of small guys. So normally a defensive nightmare, but not in this case. Why? Because Texas has that three-guard offense. So whatever Abilene Christian does, Texas does better. Check and checkmate. Texas here laying the eight points. Oh, are they going to lay it on? Another here, double the point spread winner. Texas, double-digit blowout here over Abilene Christian.”
52-53 — Abilene Christian upset Texas 53-52 in the NCAA tournament first round (played March 20, not March 19); the Texas -8 spread lost outright (ESPN box score).
“North Carolina minus one and a half versus Wisconsin Thoughts on this one? Okay, so North Carolina has a better record, 18-10, but the AC is really down this year a lot. Wisconsin, 17-12. They're battle-tested. Ken Palm rankings, and they're pretty right on, even though North Carolina's the favorite. They're ranked number 28th. Ken Palm for Wisconsin, number 11. How about this? All five top scores for Wisconsin are seniors. They've been there before. The top two scores here for North Carolina, never been in the tournament here. Level three lock. Not a level one, not a level two, but a level three lock for the biggest weekend of the year. It all starts off in the game. Everyone's going to watch. Everyone wants to bet. So if you're going to watch it and you want to bet it, you want to win it here. Wisconsin here upsets North Carolina. Level 3 lock.”
62-85 — Wisconsin upset North Carolina 85-62 in the NCAA tournament first round; the Wisconsin moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“Drake, minus two, versus Wichita State. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? All right, so Drake starts the season 18-0. I mean, they are rolling. and then their best player, best all-around player, Shinquan Hempel, he ends up having to have surgery on his foot and things started to go south. But he's back. He's going to play in this game. He averages over 14 points a game, over six rebounds a game. Drake plays great on Thursdays. I don't know what it is. They're 7-0 the last seven on Thursday games and great three-point defense. And that's where Wichita State lives and dies. Drake allowing just 30.5% field goal percentage from the three-point land. So they got into the tourney, Wichita State did with that win over Houston. Other than that, they are average and below average in a lot of categories. In fact, they shoot just 41%. That's not from three-point land, from the field. That's number 309th in the country here. Drake 26 and 4 moves to 27 and 4 and in the play-in game which most people you know kind of looking over and and passing on I'm not I think it's the blowout special Drake easy easy peasy over Wichita State.”
52-53 — Drake beat Wichita State 53-52 in the NCAA tournament First Four; Drake -2 won by only 1, failing to cover (ESPN box score).
“Boise State minus one versus the Mustangs. How are you feeling this one? You talk about being average. Boise State rewards their head coach every year. I think he gets a rollover. Either he gets another year added or three years added every time he wins 18 games. Yeah, I know it's a little tougher this year with COVID, but he's already hit that 18-game mark. This is a team that's way too heavy on their guards. I mean, since Keggy went out there, one of their top players who averages over 11 points and almost six rebounds a game, just shooting too much from the outside. SMU, they were out for a month. They did not play a game for almost a month. They came back and played in the conference tournament. They actually played fairly well against Cincinnati and lost 74-71. But before that, they beat Memphis. They played Houston tough. Also 4-1 the last five games against Mountain West Conference opponents. This game is basically a home game played less than 30 miles away from their campus here. Boise has to travel for it. Trust me, I don't think they're packing for a four- or five-day stay here. I like SMU. Wrong team favorite, plus one. Most people just are, you know, passing over this game because it's an NIT game tonight. They're passing over because they see SMU's only played 16 games or 11-5. but wrong team's favorite. SMU is going to smash Boise State.”
84-85 — Boise State beat SMU 85-84 in the NIT; SMU +1 landed exactly on the line, a push (ESPN box score).
“Portland, minus one versus New Orleans. Lee, break this one down for me. Yeah, so we had this game two nights ago, and we had the over. So now it's time to play the game. In that game, two nights ago, we had the over 239, ends up 249. What happened in that game? Well, Damian Lillard went off. He dropped 50, 50 points, including the game-winning free throw with a second left, and they won 125 124 On top of him dropping 50 which is you know an incredible night Portland went 31 for 31 from the free throw line You don't see that too often, maybe a couple times a year where the team will hit more than 25 free throws in a row. They hit 31 in a row, all 31. So New Orleans, I think they're stewing. They're waiting for this game. They're actually built to give Portland trouble. I think they can dominate them on the boards and limit the second chance shot opportunities. They're just learning how to win. Baby steps for New Orleans. They are much more talented. They will have the motivation here. This isn't a level one. This isn't a level two. We're going all the way. Level three lock. New Orleans upsets Portland and gets their revenge.”
93-101 — Portland beat New Orleans 101-93; the Pelicans moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“Virginia Tech, pick them versus Florida. How are we rolling with that one? What are your thoughts? Okay, so the public is going to be playing Florida here. Why do I say that? I'm watching all the so-called experts on TV. Whenever you see ESPN, you get on the cover, you're done. You're cooked for the next game. When you see all these so-called experts picking a team just to go against them. One of them was Seth Greenberg. He still holds a grudge. He was a Virginia Tech coach. He got fired. Everyone's predicting Florida here, but sometimes you lose that first game in the tournament. It helps you out. You start game planning. You've got your legs underneath you. Yeah, they lost to North Carolina in the first game, but North Carolina's playing some pretty good basketball. Florida, they barely got by Vanderbilt, who's awful, and then they got exposed. Tennessee did them in, beat them by double digits. So Florida they are just one of these teams since they lost their star player Keontae Johnson four games into the season he was averaging over 16 points almost five rebounds a game They just going through the motions They know deep down they don have a shot here So Virginia Tech is motivated. It's a pick-em game. It's the first game tomorrow. Hidden gem, Virginia Tech. They're going to smash the Florida Gators.”
70-75 — Florida beat Virginia Tech 75-70 in overtime in the NCAA tournament first round (played March 19); the pick'em Hokies lost outright (ESPN box score).
“Purdue minus seven and a half first North Texas how are you feeling this one so the records are similar here produce 89 North Texas 79 you thinking a lot of times in the tournament you see something like that you look to the underdog Well not in this case So, here's why. North Texas lost to UAB, who's average, at best, by 4 and 14 points. They lost to tournament teams, Loyola, Chicago, 59-49. Lost by 6 to Mississippi State. Lost by 12 to West Virginia. And 15 to Arkansas. They do not have a quad one or quad two win here. I think Purdue's just on a different level. How are they going to guard those two big fellows on the inside for Purdue? Williams, I don't think that they can. I think it's a level two lock here. Purdue Boilermakers Friday start 725 Eastern Time. Get it in now. This line could close eight and a half, nine points. Purdue blowout here. Level 2 lock over North Texas.”
78-69 — North Texas beat Purdue 78-69 in overtime in the NCAA tournament first round (played March 19, not March 17); Purdue -7.5 lost outright (ESPN box score).
“Milwaukee, minus six versus Philly. How are you feeling this one? All right, so similar game to last night. I think the public's going to be looking at Philadelphia. Look at the record. They're number one in the East. They are 28-12, facing the number three team, Milwaukee, 25-14. But Philly is coming off a tough game last night. They had to really dig deep to come back and beat the Knicks last night. Knicks had them. I think Knicks scored, well, with a minute to go, they'd only scored 12 points in the fourth quarter. So they had to play good defense. They had to do it without Joel Embiid. Ben Simmons was really tested. He had to hit the glass. He had double-digit rebounds. He's always a great passer, but he's got to play inside when Embiid isn't there. Now they've got to face a rested Milwaukee team with Giannis, who in the last 15 games, people are talking about some of these other players in the NBA. He's gone under the radar in the last 15 games. He's averaging 31.7 points per game, 12.6 rebounds per game. How about this? This isn't a point card. He's averaging 7.2 assists per game here. People are looking at this line saying Milwaukee laying six. Are you kidding me? It's a trap. Just like last night when Utah pulled it off and won that game. Milwaukee minus six blowout special over Philly.”
105-109 — Milwaukee beat Philadelphia 109-105 in overtime, winning by only 4, failing to cover -6 (ESPN box score).
“UConn minus three versus Maryland Thoughts on this one So we been talking all year Q about the strongest conferences It is clearly the Big Ten and the Big 12 Not even close And then there's everyone else. The ACC is way down. All these other conferences. UConn is 15-7. And how about this? I've watched them, and I just don't get it. Their only decent win all season was against USC. It was all the way back in December. This Maryland team, yeah, they go through some stretches where they have trouble scoring, but they beat Purdue 61-60. They win close games. They beat Michigan State twice, who's in the tournament. They even beat maybe the hottest team in the country right now, the Fighting Illini 66-63. So even if UConn mugs up this game here, you're looking at the record, you're saying, Maryland 16-13, I don't want to touch them. Well, I'm all over them. Long team is favored. Maryland plus three, they're going to win out”
54-63 — Maryland beat UConn 63-54 in the NCAA tournament first round (played March 20, not March 17); Maryland +3 won by 9 (ESPN box score).
“St. Louis, we're going Moneyline, minus 133 versus the Kings. Break this one down for us. So, you know, we talk so often in all sports, and especially in hockey, about layers. You just don't want to take teams and say, oh, you know, we're looking for revenge. In hockey, if you can find three or four layers to a game, it can be a strong play. So, first, you have the travel situation. The Blues lost consecutive home games to Vegas nights over the weekend. So they probably should have won one of those games. So they've had three nights to stew over the loss, and they traveled to Los Angeles for this matchup versus the Kings. Well, the Kings played in Denver against the Avalanche on Sunday on national TV and lost that one. Then there's a major snowstorm that hits the city of Denver. These teams were actually supposed to play each other on Monday night in L.A., but the game was canceled because the Kings were stuck in Colorado in the snow. So the Kings' travel is all sorts of messed up because the Blues have been waiting in L.A. for them for a couple nights, and they're practicing getting ready for this rematch. And the Kings returned to California just yesterday afternoon So I don think this is a good spot for the Kings with the travel issues They going to have to face a team coming back from high altitude to sea level The Blues also in revenge spot here. They lost to the Kings on the road last week. But St. Louis is 9-3 in the last 12 road games. So they're just 1-8 at home. Blues used to be great at home. So you've got to realize that things changed one season when the Blues were great at home. Next year they could be terrible at home. So they do the best work on the road this year in the Kings starter. Cal Peterson has lost his last five starts for this team. Kings have the fifth worst also home shooting percentage here. We're taking St. Louis minus 133.”
1-4 — Los Angeles beat St. Louis 4-1; the Blues moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“Oklahoma State, minus 7.5 versus Liberty. How are you feeling this one? Okay, so sometimes when you play and you get in the conference final game, I think it's a detriment. And that might be the case for Oklahoma State. They get up for the teams that are better than them, have better records, or when they're the underdog. But they also have plenty of close calls, some seven- and eight-point wins against lesser competition. I'm talking about teams like Kansas State, Marquette, Oral Roberts, and they even lost to TCU twice. So they're going to look at Liberty after playing the Giants and the Big 12 and say, we can beat Liberty. But Liberty's won 12 games. They have played some tough teams. They've played Missouri. They've played Purdue, lost those games, and beat Mississippi State. Now, they're third in the country in least turnovers, and that's why I think they're going to stay in the game. Just 9.7 turnovers per game, where Oklahoma State is 188, 16 turnovers per game. They're also, how about this, 16th in the country in shooting from the field, 49.1%, and six in the country shooting three-pointers, 39.1%. The reason they lost to Missouri and they lost to Purdue was they shot 36 and 40 in those games and 28 and 34 from three land Now they're facing better competition. But I think they're going to move more back to the norm here. So I like this line here. I think it's going to go down. I think it's going to close maybe six, six-and-a-half points, jump on Liberty now, and two other factors. They also have a guy. You need someone that can score when you need a basket. And they have the conference play of the year in Darius McGee and also one of the top three-point shooters in the nation. He can hit from everywhere. And they play what's called a pack-line defense. And you're saying, what is a pack-line defense? Well, it's a man-to-man defense where the person guarding the person dribbling with the ball is wherever he is. But every other defender makes sure they're inside of 16 feet. So they have their eye on that guy, but they make sure there's no passes inside for easy baskets. And a lot of big-name coaches run this defense, like Dick Bennett, Wisconsin Stevens Point, some others you might know, like Tom Izzo, Sean Miller, Chris Mack at Xavier, Tony Bennett at Virginia, and Steve Alford at UCLA. So if you're watching the game, just something to look for, a little bit different defense. that they're not going to face in the Big 12. So I'm picking the 7.5 points here. Wrong team favorite. Liberty takes this game down to the wire.”
69-60 — Oklahoma State beat Liberty 69-60 in the NCAA tournament first round (played March 19, not March 16); Liberty +7.5 lost by 9 (ESPN box score).
“Utah minus four at Boston. How are you feeling this game, Lee? So I think most people are going to look at this game. Take four points at home. I'll take Boston. But Utah won the first game, 122-108. It wasn't a fluke. Yeah, they've lost four the last six. But since the All-Star break, they look like they're getting it back here. So I think that by shooting three-pointers, which they do extremely well, first in the league they average making 16.9 threes a game. They're also third in the league in three-point field goal percentage, whereas Boston not real good in that area. 19th in number of threes made and putting in just 12.4 triples per game. So, Boston, how about these stats? This is really interesting. 0-7 against the spread, the last seven following against the spread win. So they get up and play well. Next game, not well. and then 0-4 in the last four games following a straight-up win when they win by more than 10 points, whereas Utah 4-1 the last five Tuesday games here. I think Utah's going to blow out Boston here.”
117-109 — Utah beat Boston 117-109; the Jazz moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“we're going to roll New Orleans versus Portland. Total, 239. How are you feeling this one? Okay, so when a total is this high, the highest of the day, maybe the highest of the week or the highest of the month, it's that high for a reason. It usually goes over. If you can find someone on the New Orleans team that's playing a lick of defense, let me know about it. Zion, scoring machine. Eric Bledsoe, not much of a defender. Lonzo Ball, he's worried about firing away like he does now. Their center, Steven Adams, well, maybe two steps too slow there. And then on the other side, Portland. I mean, are you kidding me? The Portland Trailblazers, their center, Enos Cantor, he's famous for the wave as they go by in defense. So he's all about offense. Damian Lillard, he's got to score 30 to 40 for them to just stay in it. Derek Jones, Jr., he's worried about his dunks. We're going way over 239. I think this game goes over 250.”
124-125 — Portland beat New Orleans 125-124; combined 249 points clears Over 239 (ESPN box score).
“Lakers minus two and a half versus the Warriors. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so first you've got to look at the Lakers. No AD, Tony Davis for a couple more weeks. No Marc Gasol, health and safety protocols. No Alex Caruso, concussion. With AD, they have the number eight offense. Without AD, number 16. That's a pretty decent plummet there. And they're two and five against the spread. The last seven is a road favorite. 1-5 against the spread last six on Monday. So they have a little weekend hangover. And then on the other side, Golden State, they've moved from, believe it or not, number 21 in defense to number 14 all the way up in the last couple weeks. So, you know, people, they look at the headlines, they see Curry scoring, everyone looks at the box score, but you've got to dig deeper. They're also 35-17 against the spread the last 52 home games with also a great record above 70% winning percentage when they face a team with a plus 600 record. So they get up for the big games. They play well at home here. And like I said, defense-wise, when all of a sudden James Wineson quietly, he's working his way back into the rotation, playing more minutes. So I think he's going to dominate inside. Wrong team favorite, Golden State Warriors. they move up to 21 and 19 and knock off the LA Lakers.”
97-128 — The Lakers beat the Warriors 128-97; Golden State +2.5 lost by 31 (ESPN box score).
“Brooklyn, minus 8.5 versus the Knicks. What say you on this one, Lee? Okay, so Brooklyn, we know what they're all about. But the Knicks, believe it or not, people will say, oh, they're 1-1 since the break. Beat Oklahoma City, 119-97. But Oklahoma City was shorthanded due to a trade. So they were down a couple players because of that trade the day before. So a depleted roster. Before that, on Thursday, they lost by 33 to Milwaukee. The last team they beat with a winning record was going all the way back well over a month ago. Six weeks ago, February 6th versus Portland. In fact, their last win versus a high-level team, I consider not just a team with a winning record, a team that's probably in the final six, seven, eight, has a chance to win the NBA title, was Boston all the way back January 17th. they've only beaten three high-level teams this year, Boston, Milwaukee, and Utah. So they beat the teams that they're better than, but they just can't compete with a high-level team. So that's what usually a team with a really good coach can do. He elevates his team to a certain level, but can't get them over the hump here. I like Brooklyn here. I'm going to lay the eight-and-a-half blowout special, blowout city. They win by double digits.”
112-117 — Brooklyn beat the Knicks 117-112, winning by only 5, failing to cover -8.5 (ESPN box score).
“Over six, plus 107 for Flyers versus Rangers. What are your thoughts on this one? Okay, listen to the levels here. Another great scenario. This almost reminds me of our situation. We had a 50 lock on an over on Saturday Easy easy winner So tonight another perfect opportunity to take advantage of some struggling goaltending teams So the Flyers are going to go with Carter Hart here. We've mentioned on the podcast before that he's the worst goalie in the NHL dating back to last season. When he played on the road, he had just an 866 save percentage away from home. This season, not much different. He's an 881 percentage on the road, fifth worst in the NHL. Usually you want your goaltender to be around 9-10. So he's a full 30 percentage points below that. He's actually been benched in Philadelphia's last few games to work on his mechanics with his goalie coach. but their team goaltending has been so bad that he's had to come in relief a few times this past week with such a roller coaster of a season going on for him. I don't see tonight being a good night for him in that at Madison Square Garden. Then you look at the other side of things for the Rangers. Their starting goaltender is out with a concussion. Their backup has played so poorly he's been benched as well. So they're starting a third string goaltender who's making his first career start at Madison Square Garden for the Rangers and is coming off his first career win for the team. So I love fading bad goaltenders here who are coming off their first win with the team. The emotional high of having that big win. They come off sometime the next time, big, big letdowns here. So just like that situation in Philadelphia, overs 6-1 the last seven games, 9-3 in their last 12 games on the road. Don't be surprised here to see a 5-4 final in this one here. Over 6, plus 107, not level one, not even level two on Monday, a level three lock explosion.”
4-5 — Philadelphia beat the Rangers 5-4 in overtime at Madison Square Garden; combined 9 goals clears Over 6 (ESPN box score).
“Arkansas minus four versus Missouri. How are you feeling this one, Lee? Oh, I bet you most people don't follow college basketball closely. I couldn't even tell you that the Razorbacks are ranked in the top ten. You know, they've gone through so many different coaches since their heyday, you know, in the 80s and 90s. Eric Musselman's kind of been under the radar and done a great job with them. They play up-tempo, but they also play defense. Right now they're projected as a number three seed in the tournament. Who knows? They win the tournament or go to the finals. They could be a two seed. Missouri projected as an eight seed. I think they realize that's where they are. Missouri's going to make no noise in the tournament. They're one of those teams that you'll just put in. They go down in the first round, and they're done, and they go home. They got lucky to hold on last night against Georgia. They have just the eighth-rated defense in the SEC. They're one in six versus teams with a winning record the last seven games here. Four points. The team that played yesterday, Missouri, they're going to be tired. Give me Arkansas blowout special.”
70-64 — Arkansas beat Missouri 70-64 in the SEC tournament quarterfinal, covering -4 (ESPN box score).
“Houston, minus 18 versus Tulane. Break this one down for me, Lee. I was just looking at the name of the arena they're playing this tournament at. The Dickies Arena. I didn't know they sold Dickies Jeans anymore. So, I mean, what did they pay to get the naming rights to that arena? like 10 grand and throw in a couple pairs of dicky jeans for the guys that were at the signing. That's crazy. So I don't know how that's going to work out for them. So this is too much here. This is ridiculous. I mean, I know Houston's really good. I know they're going to be number two, three, four seed in the tournament. But what do they have to look forward to here? They already beat Tulane 71-50 and 83-60. To beat a team by 20-plus points three straight times, that's tough. I mean, actually, Tulane can play some defense. They're number 22 in turnovers created here. They held Tulsa to 36% shooting yesterday, and that's 77-70 wins. You get a team like Tulane where they know they've got to win the tournament to get in, they're going to give you a good effort until they fall behind by 15, 18 points. I think this is going to be an 8-10 point game. I think this line's way, way too high. Wrong team favorite. I think Tulane keeps this game close.”
77-52 — Houston beat Tulane 77-52 in the AAC tournament quarterfinal; Tulane +18 lost by 25 (ESPN box score).
“St. Louis money line minus 114 versus the Golden Knights. How are you feeling this one? So it was a great story a couple years ago when they won the Stanley Cup. And this is still a really good team. They've had some injuries, but here's the situation here. And listen to the levels that make this a really good play. So they're playing their first game in three nights after consecutive losses in overtime. So they're going to be ready to go here. They should be stewing after the last loss a few nights ago. They dominated San Jose but just blew the game in overtime So these two teams were supposed to play a few weeks ago but COVID canceled the game in Vegas I think St Louis is really looking forward to this game as they finally have one of their best goal scorers back in the lineup here. So this is a home game. They smell some blood in the water here at Vegas, down a few major guys with injuries and have lost two straight. Golden Knights are going to be without their best player here to this point, Marc-Andre Fleury, because of COVID, and their best defenseman is back in Vegas with an injury. This really just feels like one of those nights where St. Louis should get things going. They were 1-7 at home in their last eight before this short break after the road trip, and they were severely hindered by those injuries that I talked about for the last few weeks. They're getting close to healthy here. It's a big game for them in second place in the division. They're 4-1 all-time at home against Vegas, and 6-1-3 all-time against Vegas. So St. Louis goaltender Jordan Bennington. How about this? He signed a big extension last night. This is the icing on the cake, and it's going to keep him with the team for a long time. So I'm sure he's looking forward to getting into this matchup here as well and proving that he deserves all that money. I think they ride that wave here. Give me the Blues. I think they're going to win this game 4-1 or 4-2 over Vegas. Level 3 lock.”
4-5 — Vegas beat St. Louis 5-4 in overtime; the Blues moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“tonline.ag line for this one. Utah, minus 17 versus the Rockets. What are your thoughts on this one? Okay. There's bad, and then there's Houston bad. Christian Wood, top score, out. John Wall, probably out. P.J. Tucker, yeah, he decides he doesn't want to play. It's ridiculous. I mean, you give me a million dollars, I'll sit on the end of that bench. I'll be the best teammate I won't complain at all. So it looks like he wants to be traded and doesn't want to play until he's traded. So how bad is Houston? They've lost 14 straight games, and only three of those games have been less than double digits. They're playing on back-to-back nights. They gave up 125 to Sacramento last night. Utah is just sitting there waiting at home. You know at the end of the first half of the season, they have to be stewing. They lost three of their last four games before the All-Star break. They are really good as a home team, 6-5 against the spread. The last 21 home games are 9-2-1 against the spread. The last Friday night games, they're going to be waiting for this game. They play defense unlike Sacramento does, and Sacramento beat them by 20. This is a give me one more. Double your point spread special. Utah, laying 17. They're going to win by 34 over Houston tonight.”
99-114 — Utah beat Houston 114-99, winning by 15, two points short of covering -17 (ESPN box score).
“Ohio State minus 11.5 versus Minnesota. What are your thoughts, Lee? Okay, well, I think most people look at the line and they'll say, Ohio State, not playing great. You know, lost four straight games. But all those teams, I believe, will be in the tournament. The last loss to Illinois, they actually led late to maybe the hottest team in the country. They didn't score for the last three minutes and 48 seconds, and this is their last ten shots. So they will be focused here. Minnesota, I mean, that game that they played last night against Northwestern, maybe one of the ugliest games I've ever watched. They went 51-46. Richard Pitino, I didn't realize this. I thought, oh, maybe it's his third, fourth, fifth year. This is his seventh year. You know, he starts strong, it seems like, almost every year, and then fades down the stretch here. So I think he could potentially be out here Also Ohio State looking for a little payback Minnesota beat them 77 January 3rd So payback is a you-know-what Ohio State by 20-25. This is my early bird gets the worm. This is my double the point spread. Ohio State's going to blast Minnesota early.”
Ohio State 79, Minnesota 75 — Ohio State beat Minnesota only 79-75; Ohio State -11.5 busts (ESPN).
“the betonline.ag line for this one Missouri minus 6.5 versus Georgia break this one down for us Lee yeah conference tournaments are going to take center stage here for us the next couple days and maybe the next week and a half, two weeks. So nothing against the NBA, but March Madness is an animal in itself here. Missouri, if they lose here, I think they're on the tournament bubble. So I think the pressure is on Missouri. This Georgia team beat Missouri 80-70 just a couple weeks ago, February 16th here. They did lose their last game to Alabama by 10. They're playing well, and then a bunch of turnovers down the stretch. In fact, 20 turnovers in that game. I don't see that happening in a game. Just like yesterday. You know, when I told you that Kansas State, wrong team favored, put half your wager on them and half on the money line, this is another great situational play. Play it the same here. Missouri can come out, and they can win easy, or they can lose outright. So half my wager is on Georgia, plus the six-and-a-half, and half on Georgia.”
Missouri 73, Georgia 70 — Missouri beat Georgia 73-70; Georgia +6.5 covers by 3.5 (ESPN).
“the bet online money line play here plus 230 so for every hundred it's going to return 230 dollars here wrong team favorite georgia wins this game outright”
Missouri 73, Georgia 70 — Missouri beat Georgia 73-70 outright; Georgia ML busts (ESPN).
“USC minus 7.5 versus Utah. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? So one of the most important things when I'm handicapping games, and there's so many games in conference tournaments and March Madness, be organized. Don't write everything onto one sheet. I usually have three or four sheets spread out if I'm watching games. And, you know, that way if you've got your bets, you put your bets and you've got them organized. So once you see something, put it on that separate sheet as a possible bet. So that way you don't leave a game out. I hear people all the time, well, I was about to play that one, but I forgot about it when I went to bet. Another thing, take notes. And the biggest note that I had watching Utah's game last night against Washington, they looked tired. It was just a boat race back and forth here. Now, Utah beat USC at home 71-61 where they're usually really good. But on the road, USC just destroyed them 64-46. So I think USC is going to be ready for this game. I think they're peaking at the right time. They're ranked 24th. They want a better seating here. Like I said, I think Utah is tired here. Blowout special, blowout city, USC big over Utah.”
USC 91, Utah 85 — USC beat Utah 91-85 in double overtime; USC ML wins (ESPN).
“Rutgers minus 3 versus Indiana How are you feeling this one? Well, hold on to your hat. I'm going to release a level 3 lock today. Wow. And tomorrow. I love the schedule for tomorrow. So everyone needs to tune in. Who knows? Maybe even a double level 3 lock. So make sure you're there to check it out. And this is why I like this game so much. So Indiana is reeling. Lost five straight. Not going to be in the tournament. Archie Miller struggling, just like his brother Sean. Sean should have been fired last year at Arizona. I think there's a chance they let Archie go here. He's 67-57 here in his four years and 33-44 in Big Ten play. In fact, Indiana has had a losing record in the Big Ten five straight years. So they get to go back 50, 60 years when that's happened before. And Armond Franklin, one of their top players, has missed the last three games with an ankle injury. He averages over 11 points per game here. He's a game-time decision. Their offense has been atrocious the last five games, 61.4 points per game they're scoring. So Rutgers beat Indiana 74-63 February 24th. It wasn't a fluke at all. Indiana even shot almost 45% from three-point land and lost by double digits. I think Rutgers, I think they're in the tournament. I think Rutgers is a quality team here. Level 3 lock. The Scarlet Knights of Rutgers are going to lay it on the blue blood of Indiana.”
Rutgers 61, Indiana 50 — Rutgers beat Indiana 61-50 in the Big Ten tournament; Rutgers -3 covers by 8 (ESPN box score).
“TCU, minus 3.5 versus Kansas State. What are your thoughts on this one? Okay, so this is almost like a home game for Kansas State. You can't see many TCU fans traveling at all to this game. It's played in Kansas City. As you know, Manhattan, where Kansas State University is, is maybe an hour and 15, 20 minutes away. So a lot of fans in Kansas City. So I think they're going to feel comfortable here. TCU, you talk about a team that is drawing dead. They dropped six of the final seven games of the year These two teams split regular season games here but that TCU dropped the most recent game 62 in that game on February 20th It wasn't a fluke at all. Kansas State dominated the game here. They are starting to find their identity on defense. They've given up 67 points or less in each of the last seven games here. Bruce Weber may be retiring. I'm hearing some whispers. He's 64 years old, might be hanging it up. So they don't have the better record here, but they by far are playing some really good basketball. So they just seem to have found themselves, I think, wrong team's favorite here. I'm going to put half my wager on Kansas State, plus the three and a half and half on the money line at almost two to one.”
Kansas State 71, TCU 50 — Kansas State beat TCU 71-50 in the Big 12 tournament; Kansas State +3.5 covers by 17.5 (ESPN recap).
“TCU, minus 3.5 versus Kansas State. What are your thoughts on this one? Okay, so this is almost like a home game for Kansas State. You can't see many TCU fans traveling at all to this game. It's played in Kansas City. As you know, Manhattan, where Kansas State University is, is maybe an hour and 15, 20 minutes away. So a lot of fans in Kansas City. So I think they're going to feel comfortable here. TCU, you talk about a team that is drawing dead. They dropped six of the final seven games of the year These two teams split regular season games here but that TCU dropped the most recent game 62 in that game on February 20th It wasn't a fluke at all. Kansas State dominated the game here. They are starting to find their identity on defense. They've given up 67 points or less in each of the last seven games here. Bruce Weber may be retiring. I'm hearing some whispers. He's 64 years old, might be hanging it up. So they don't have the better record here, but they by far are playing some really good basketball. So they just seem to have found themselves, I think, wrong team's favorite here. I'm going to put half my wager on Kansas State, plus the three and a half and half on the money line at almost two to one.”
Kansas State 71, TCU 50 — Kansas State beat TCU 71-50 outright; Kansas State ML wins (ESPN recap).
“Duke, minus 2.5 versus Louisville. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, so I was taking notes and I'm watching the game yesterday. And what's important a lot of times when a team has to play that first day in the ACC tournament or any tournament is, are you extended? And if you're extended, then you've got to come back the next day, sometimes in less than 24 hours, and play against a much better opponent. But Duke wasn't even put to a test. They won by 25 points against Boston College, your best player. Matthew Hurt, who averages 18.7 points per game and 6.2 rebounds per game, he scored eight points. I think he was just going through the motions, just getting warmed up here. So I expect a big game from him here. Duke did lose both games against Louisville, but the last game was in overtime, 80-73. Before that, 70-65 in Louisville, all the way back January 23rd. So they're a different team now. They need to run the table. They need to win the ACC tournament to get in here. And a matchup here, I think it's going to be a high-scoring game. Louisville's not the same team we saw the last couple years. They just don't have the firepower. They're hitting only 31.1% of their three-pointers this year. So two most important things in this game here is motivation, motivation, motivation. Louisville knows they're in the tournament. Duke will be motivated. And coaching. Coach K. Coaching, coaching, coaching. He's got an edge here. So I like Duke. Lay the two and a half. Get on it early before this line goes up. It's not a mistake. If you look at the records, Louisville should be the favorite, but it's about motivation and coaching. Played at two and a half, blowout city, blowout special.”
Duke 70, Louisville 56 — Duke beat Louisville 70-56 in the ACC tournament; Duke -2.5 covers by 11.5 (ESPN recap).
“Memphis, minus 3.5 versus the Wizards. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? Well, I love Jai Morant. I think he's incredible. I like the way he distributes the ball. I like the way he drives. I like the way he shoots, in fact, in each of the last two games. He scored 35 points. But even with all that, they've still lost three or five games. Their record is 16-16. And you look at Washington's record, you see 14-20. But this Washington team here is starting to play some pretty good basketball. They also have a nice rematch here with Memphis. They lost eight days ago 125 in that game In fact they had 22 turnovers They allowed Memphis to shoot almost 45 from three land and they were out 44 to 37 So I think it's all about effort here. And since Westbrook came back, he was on and off in the lineup. He was injured. They've been a different team here. They're, in fact, 7-3 straight up the last 10 games. So even though they're 14-10, Washington playing some really good basketball, I just think that Westbrook and Beal being healthy is going to be the difference here. And you get that nice revenge set up here. So I'm going to take the three and a half points here. Level two lock. I'm going with Washington and the association over Memphis.”
Memphis 127, Washington 112 — Memphis beat Washington 127-112; Washington +3.5 busts (ESPN).
“The Zags, minus 14 versus BYU. How you feeling this one? Oh, I love this game here. So this is a great setup for tournaments. And so what happens in tournaments is a lot of times these teams have faced each other twice. This year, sometimes three and four times because teams are looking for extra games. But they played each other twice. Gonzaga won the first game pretty easily, 86-69, 17-point win at home. Then they go to BYU. They only won 82-71. It was closer than the score. We actually had that game, watched both games. I thought Mark Pope, the head coach for BYU. A lot of people don't know who he is. because he was at Utah Valley for five years But before that he was a BYU assistant So he knows all about facing Gonzaga before that for a couple years at Wake Forest So a really good pedigree. I think he makes really good in-game adjustments. I like his game plans going into games. And Gonzaga's going to have to beat him a third time. And now the line is 14 points on a neutral court. Give me BYU here. plus the 14 level two lock”
Gonzaga 88, BYU 78 — Gonzaga beat BYU 88-78 in the WCC final; BYU +14 covers by 4 (ESPN).
“Cleveland State, minus 2.5 versus Oakland. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so we've got the number one seed, Cleveland State here, laying just 2.5 points against a three-seeded Oakland. Cleveland State was 16-4 in conference. Oakland just 10-10. You're saying, wow, this line should be 5, 6, 7 points. Well, if you watch the first two games, 80-72. First game, Cleveland State won. Last game, they won right at the end, 80-78. But when you get to the conference tournament and to NCAA play, the thing I value most, believe it or not, backcourts. Why? Because the guys that are handling the ball and bouncing the ball and throwing passes and shooting free throws generally determine whether you win a game or not Usually not up and down I don think we going to see his highest scores we saw in the first two games And Oakland backcourt bottom line is better Rashad Williams Jr. scored 17 points in the win, the last win, the last game. And Jalen Moore, he scores 14 points. These two guys are juniors. They're experienced. They shoot free throws well. I think they're going to be the difference here. I like the number three seed, Oakland. to knock off Cleveland State here.”
Cleveland State 80, Oakland 69 — Cleveland State beat Oakland 80-69 to win the Horizon League title; Oakland +2.5 busts (ESPN).
“Rice, minus 4.5 versus Southern Miss. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so most people look at this and say, oh, we got the number six seed, Rice, playing number 17, Southern Miss, should be fairly close. Well, far from it. So I watched both games again last night. Rice won by 26 and 8 points. and neither games were flukes. Why is Rice a decent team? They were predicted to finish last this year, play up-tempo. They averaged 29 free-point attempts per game. They ranked seventh in the country in that category, and they hit on over 35% of them. So the problem here is Southern Mississippi just can't score. They're averaging 64.7 points per game here. So just don't have enough offensive firepower here. and unless Rice shoots under 30% here, easy winner. Blowout special, Rice demolishes Southern Mississippi.”
Rice 61, Southern Miss 52 — Rice beat Southern Miss 61-52 outright; Rice ML wins (ESPN).
“The betonline line for this one Nashville versus Carolina Over 5.5 goals, minus 125. Break this one down for us. Okay, so I wish I had both goalies in the game that I chose yesterday. Like I said, the goalie we had couldn't stop a beach ball. The other goalie, he couldn't stop a softball. It was that bad. So here's what I do. and most professional handicappers know it's typically a really good idea to make your own line on a game before checking and seeing what the books have it so a lot of people they just look at the schedule look at the line every single sport i project a line and then if i see something off a lot of times it's an injury that i didn't find but sometimes it's off and that's where we pounce on it. So I made this line at over under six with some like minus 120 to minus 125 juice on the over. So I think we're getting a good line here. Both of these teams are top 10 and expected goals over the last 10 games. And it's, it's not being talked about much, but since mid February, Nashville's power play, which is usually bottom five in the league has been fourth in the NHL at 31%, and Carolina's is even better, though, at 31.4%. So Nashville's in the middle of a rough stretch of a bunch of games at once right now. But more importantly, it's the fifth game in eight days for their goaltender here because their backup is injured. So he's played well on the road this year, but he's 1-7 this year with 23 goals allowed against the big dogs of the division. We're talking about Tampa, Carolina, and Florida. We love the over here. Over five and a half goals, minus 125. We might see something like a 7-4, 7-5 game here.”
Carolina 3, Nashville 2 (OT) — Carolina beat Nashville 3-2 in overtime, a combined 5 goals; Over 5.5 busts (ESPN).
“The Kings minus 117 Moneyline versus Anaheim. What are your thoughts on it? Okay, so I'm going to give you a level 2 lock here. The Los Angeles Kings are Moneyline minus 117. In the NHL, each team has obvious, very obvious glaring strengths. And one of the best ways to bet on the NHL is to know those strengths, like the back of your hand. And when those strengths are struggling for short periods of time or maybe a bit overrated, that's when it's time to jump on those teams and fade them. So for the Anaheim Ducks, by far, in a way, their biggest strength is their goaltender. His name is John Gibson. He's been arguably the best goaltender here in the NHL for a couple years now. But right now, he's really struggling. He's usually in the top ten in goals against average and save percentage. But right now, he's 43rd in save percentage. He's been even worse at home this year with an 889 save percentage in Anaheim. So now is the time to fade the Anaheim Ducks here and keep riding the cold streak for John Gibson, for the Kings, L.A., on the first game of a road trip and a revenge spot here against their division rival. as Anaheim has beat them 3-1 a few weeks ago. Anaheim as a team has the third-worst save percentage across the league in their last 10 and their 20th in expected goals against in the last 60 here. And L.A., third-best in expected goals. So we're going to ride the Kings here and small favorite, and we're going to call it a level-two lock, the L.A. Kings tonight over the Anaheim Ducks.”
Anaheim 6, Los Angeles 5 (OT) — Anaheim beat Los Angeles 6-5 in overtime; Kings ML busts (ESPN).
“The BetOnline line for this one Georgia State minus 7 versus App State What are your thoughts on this one Lee Yeah I always like this because you know this is always going to be on the Monday. So, heading into championship week and in the past, it's been team like Louisiana Lafayette, the Raging Cajuns that's won it. So, we've got two teams that are kind of under the radar here. Georgia State and Appalachian State. I mean, no one thought But Appalachian State was going to do it. But Appalachian State, I mean, they had some great wins in this tournament so far. Weird that they played Georgia State three times this year. So, you know, they're trying to mix and match games certain times. And Georgia State beat Appalachian State 85-71 at home on February 23rd. But the month before that, on the 22nd and 23rd of January, Appalachian State beat Georgia State twice, 80-71 and 74-61. So I think they know that they can play with them. It's on a neutral site. This game is not being played in Atlanta. And Appalachian State is 4-0 against the spread the last four neutral site games. In fact, when they're favorite, they can't put away teams. But against teams with winning records, they're 9-4 against the spread the last 13. So these conference games, so much pressure, just trying to get into the tournament. You get into the tournament, the school makes money, kid can tell all his friends, watch me on TV, I'm going dancing. So I think the pressure's here on Georgia State. I like Appalachian State here, plus the seven. I think this is a one or two possession game. Wrong team favorite. The Appalachian State basketball team finally punches a ticket and gets into the big dance.”
Appalachian State 80, Georgia State 73 — Appalachian State beat Georgia State 80-73 to win the Sun Belt Championship; the 7-point margin exactly equals the +7 line, so Appalachian State +7 pushes (ESPN).
“Hofstra, minus 5 versus Elon. How are you feeling this one? Okay, so Elon's one of these teams. They were just decimated at certain points, especially early in the year with COVID. And then they ended up losing their top scorer early in the season. So they've had to overcome a lot. And then they're seeded eighth. They knock off James Madison, the regular season champion, in the game on Sunday night. So they were way down in that game. In fact, I think they were down 10 points at half. And at one point in the second half, they were down 15 points. They battled back and sent the one-seat packing, 72-71. But normally I would look at someone like Elon, but I just don't think that they have anything left here. Hunter McIntosh, who's averaging 15 points per game. He led the way back in that game. He dropped the game-high 24 points, pulled down nine rebounds. But, you know, without their leading scorer, Gerald Gillens-Butler, I just don't know. He had ruptured his Achilles tendon early in the season. If they have enough here to face a balanced team, and I just think they have too much firepower. So everything would have to go right here for Elon to stay in this game. And give him credit. They knocked off the number one seed, but usually after that happens, usually you don't get it done here. And the Hofstra Pride, their nickname is the Pride, five and two against the spread. The last seven, they were favored, and they seem to play really well in this role. So we're going to say that the Pride moves on to the Colonial Athletic Association finals game, and I'm going to lay the five here.”
Elon 76, Hofstra 58 — Elon beat Hofstra 76-58 outright; Hofstra -5 busts (ESPN).
“UT Rio Grande Valley minus five versus Tarleton State. What are your thoughts on this one? I think UT Rio Grande Valley has changed their nickname like four or five times. I can't even keep up with it. They are known as one of the worst basketball teams of all time. In fact, I remember a couple of years they were like one in twenty one, two in twenty eight. I mean, horrific. They had a six game winning streak last year. I think it was the record last year. Six games was a record for their basketball team last year. In fact, they won three games in a row this year at one point. And then what happened? They lost their leading scorer, Sean Ray. He averages 15.2 points per game. Well, you're saying, okay, he doesn't average 18 or 20 points a game. But almost every single game, you check the box score, I've seen this team play. He scores 13 to 18 points. Since he's been out, haven't won a game. Lost four straight games. Laying five points at home? Are you kidding me? Tarleton State, even though they're 8-10 and Rio Grande Valley has a winning record here, wrong team's favorite. They're going to win this game outright. I'm putting half my wager on Tarleton State, plus the five, half on the money line.”
Tarleton State 65, UT Rio Grande Valley 47 — Tarleton State beat UT Rio Grande Valley 65-47; Tarleton State +5 covers by 13 (ESPN).
“UT Rio Grande Valley minus five versus Tarleton State. What are your thoughts on this one? I think UT Rio Grande Valley has changed their nickname like four or five times. I can't even keep up with it. They are known as one of the worst basketball teams of all time. In fact, I remember a couple of years they were like one in twenty one, two in twenty eight. I mean, horrific. They had a six game winning streak last year. I think it was the record last year. Six games was a record for their basketball team last year. In fact, they won three games in a row this year at one point. And then what happened? They lost their leading scorer, Sean Ray. He averages 15.2 points per game. Well, you're saying, okay, he doesn't average 18 or 20 points a game. But almost every single game, you check the box score, I've seen this team play. He scores 13 to 18 points. Since he's been out, haven't won a game. Lost four straight games. Laying five points at home? Are you kidding me? Tarleton State, even though they're 8-10 and Rio Grande Valley has a winning record here, wrong team's favorite. They're going to win this game outright. I'm putting half my wager on Tarleton State, plus the five, half on the money line.”
Tarleton State 65, UT Rio Grande Valley 47 — Tarleton State beat UT Rio Grande Valley 65-47 outright; Tarleton State ML wins (ESPN).
“Minnesota going money line minus 140 versus Arizona. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so Minnesota's off two straight losses. Off two straight losses. You can look back the last three years. They play their best hockey. They have a great goaltender. believe it or not they're nine and three against the spread against uh arizona in phoenix and uh great situation here i see minnesota winning this game four to one or five to one lay the money line minus 140 blowout special”
Minnesota 5, Arizona 1 — Minnesota Wild beat Arizona Coyotes 5-1; Wild ML (-140) wins (ESPN).
“Colorado State, minus one versus Nevada. Thoughts on this one? Okay, so if you look at the different teams these two teams have played, Colorado State's the better team. 17-4, tied for first place. People are thinking, oh, okay. Well, they want to win this game. They want to win a conference championship. But the pressure is on them. And here's why Nevada, it's just 14-9 and 9-7 in conference, is better than Colorado State, who's 14-3 on this given night. They're a great home team. So they wouldn't beat them twice, but they're only playing once. They're catching them in a great situation when Colorado State's been red hot. So I think the pressure's on Colorado State and the fact that Nevada's playing at home. They're not a good road team, but a great home team. Nevada plus the one level two lock boom level two lock right there”
Nevada 85, Colorado State 82 — Nevada beat Colorado State 85-82 on a late three-pointer; Nevada +1 covers by 2 (ESPN recap).
“So NBA Skills Challenge, love Luka Donyuk. I don't think there's anyone even close to him in this field here for this challenge. Plus 200, we're going to take him.”
Domantas Sabonis won the 2021 NBA Skills Challenge, defeating Nikola Vucevic in the final; Luka Doncic did not win (Wikipedia: 2021 NBA All-Star Game).
“The Dunk Contest, Obi Topin, we're going to take him plus 150.”
Anfernee Simons won the 2021 NBA Slam Dunk Contest, edging Obi Toppin 95-94 in the first round; Toppin did not win (Wikipedia: 2021 NBA All-Star Game).
“Okay, here's a fight I love. Askar Askarov, only 28 years old. He's minus 120 against Joseph Benavides, who's 36. Now, Benavides has a nice resume. But the last couple fights, he is coming off some devastating losses. I'm talking about he got almost killed in both fights. I mean, it was that bad. He got knocked out of TKO. The other, he got knocked senseless, and then he got submitted. when flyweights, you know, this isn't heavyweights. Heavyweights you can fight into your early, sometimes mid-40s, as we've seen. Flyweights, it's all about quickness. When you lose that quickness, when you've been hit a couple times in the head, you're almost like punch drunk. You're like just that split-second slow. I don't know what it is. You can't time it. You can't really see it. But you can just sense it in a fighter's eyes. And I just think Benavidez is done. I think Askaroff might eventually be a champion. He's getting better every fight at 28. So short price. I think the line is way off. Askar Askar off, minus 120, big time. I don't know if he's going to knock him out, but he's going to dominate him at the very least for three rounds. Easy winner over Joseph Benavides.”
Askar Askarov defeated Joseph Benavidez by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26) at UFC 259; Askarov ML (-120) wins (Wikipedia: UFC 259). (Askarov won by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26))
“The betonline.ag line for this one. Baylor minus 12 versus Oklahoma State. What are your thoughts on this one? well it's right in your backyard i mean i'm skipping a jump for you did you ever sneak in as a kid see the baylor games no no when i got to central texas i wasn't a kid no more okay okay all right so here's the situation for this game baylor has already cemented themselves as the conference champion big 12 you know they probably had a nice little celebration and even though you know the coaches tell them hey we want to be a number one seed we're ranked third in the country, you know, it's hard, you know, to get a team motivated after they've already won. I've seen this show many times before. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, people are thinking, okay, well, they lost by 15 at home earlier in the year. But remember this, who didn't play in that game? Cade Cunningham. This guy is cementing himself as a legend in Stillwater. and, I mean, five-game winning streak for this team now. They sweep Oklahoma. And then on top of that, I mean, look what's going on with this team right now. They're 4-0 against the spread last four games here. Baylor 0-4 against the spread the last four home games. So, like I said, the first game was a 15-point Baylor win, but now Cunningham's back in the fold. I think that they're going to drive the ball against Baylor here. And, you know, even though Baylor looks like got their legs back and won that game in overtime, I projected this line at like seven and a half, eight. So very important if you handicap before the lines come out, make a projection of what you think the line is going to be. And I have power ratings and I adjust them every single week and sometimes after every single game based on the situation. and the sign's just too high. I mean, 12 points? Give me Oklahoma State here. Wrong team favorite.”
Baylor 81, Oklahoma State 70 — Baylor beat Oklahoma State 81-70; Oklahoma State +12 covers by 1 point (ESPN recap).
“the knicks minus six and a half versus the pistons thoughts on this one lee so you know i talked and we talked about earlier going into the all-star break how do you approach it and the first year wherever Tom Thibodeau is, he drives his players. And he talks to them over and over again how important it is to finish strong. And if they win this game, they have a winning record. I don't think anyone predicted that the Knicks were going to have a winning record going into the All-Star break, and they'd be 19-18. So a big difference between 18-19 and 19-18 psychologically. So they're going to play hard. You want to talk about a team that is an absolute dog. It is the Detroit Pistons. So they are horrific on the road. They are six and 14 against Eastern conference teams. They don't rebound well. They've got Blake Griffin being held out until they can try to trade him or cut him. They're leading score score here. Jeremy Grant. He's a game time decision as is Frank Jackson. and Josh Jackson. So these guys may not play at most. I would expect maybe one. I mean, do you take a chance and play a major player the last game going into the All-Star break if you're someone like Detroit when you can sit them out for another week? I don't think so. I'd be absolutely shocked. So I like this setup here. And everyone talks about the trade and you bring in Rose, Derrick Rose, and that's important. but probably the the biggest difference from last year is this kid quickly i mean they get them late in the first round and make take nothing away from derrick rose but this kid quickly has scored uh 25 10 26 points in the last three games and i i think he's one of the top two or three rookies right now in the NBA. So he's the difference coming off the bench here. They just have a nice punch when he comes into the game here. And so I think their defense is going to be really good at holding Detroit, which is 29th and three-point shooting percentage. So blowout special. The New York Knicks minus 6.5 versus Detroit. I project this line to close about 7.5.”
New York 114, Detroit 104 — Knicks beat Pistons 114-104; Knicks -6.5 covers by 3.5 (ESPN boxscore).
“the bet online.ag line for this one fau minus 17 and a half versus middle tennessee state thoughts on this one okay so fau's had a couple games canceled here because of COVID, but they're back and they played well. They swept their opponent last weekend. They have four games, believe it or not, where they've scored above a hundred points. So they like to get up and down the floor here in middle Tennessee state. Talk about another dog team. That's just absolutely quit. They've lost four in a row. The closest in those four games was by six points that they lost. They have not won a game since February six So they just and even in January they lost seven of eight games and two of their 15 losses just to have, they even covered the point spread. So they're an underdog and they're an underdog that doesn't even keep games closest. In fact, their coach even said after the last game, he goes, quote unquote, we just can't cover anyone. So FAU, um, I think they race, They boat race middle Tennessee state here. And this is one of those games. And I think Middleton, Tennessee state might even be upset. They were going to have a limited number of teams. I think they were going to go with eight teams in the conference tournament. They decided because of COVID, they want to get everyone involved. Everyone makes it. So middle Tennessee state, they probably wanted their season to end here. Not a level one, not a level two, but a level three lock on the FAU owls from Boca Raton, Florida.”
Florida Atlantic 80, Middle Tennessee 50 — Florida Atlantic beat Middle Tennessee 80-50 on March 4, 2021; FAU -17.5 covers by 12.5 (ESPN box score). Stored resolution had used the wrong game in this same-week series.
“betonline.ag line for this one Florida minus four versus Missouri thoughts on this one Lee okay so Florida people are going probably wager on the Gators here they're in third place in the SEC at nine and five while Missouri started strong but I mean lost the last four or five games they're now all the way down in seventh place in the SEC at seven and seven both teams it looks like are pretty secure in making the tournament but here's the problem for florida height disadvantage here uh hurts them with rebounding uh missouri really hits the offensive glass also florida a non-characteristic from years past 14 and a half turnovers a game and how about this i don't know what it is about wednesday but they're one in eight against the spread the last nine wednesday games here i i like missouri uh their offense has been pretty steady this year they're number 41 and ken palm suggested efficiency offensive rating. So we're going to take Missouri here. Wrong team favorite.”
72-70 — Missouri beat Florida 72-70 outright, so Missouri +4 covers (ESPN box score).
“bet online.ag line arizona money line minus 118 versus the kings break this one down for us lee okay so this is another great spot for a team that is a big advantage in the travel department it's it's more pronounced than most years the coyotes have been at home in phoenix how about this for 18 days they've been on a nine game homestand most people don't realize that resting up like san jose was the other night which we had for tonight's game they travel an easy trip to los angeles for a standalone road game before heading home again for another couple days. So they're in a revenge spot here as well after losing two straight games to L.A. a couple weeks ago. They lost 3-2 and 4-2 in those games, but probably were the better team, so they'll be ready for this game. They're also coming off two consecutive losses to Colorado, and they gone this year 4 this year after two consecutive losses So they do not have a three losing streak yet this year The Kings on the other hand just playing out of their minds on a six road trip over in St Louis and Minnesota And this is their first home game back in L.A. in over two weeks, which is always a tough spot for home teams. I think the Kings here outperformed themselves on the road trip, to be honest. They got some good shooting luck, and that happens in hockey. Sometimes there's some games teams take 45, 50 shots and lose games, and they're taking 20, 25 shots and winning games here. So I think that that luck's going to run out here in the Coyotes, seven and three in the last 10 games against the Kings in L.A. I'm expecting a three to one or four to victory here for the Coyotes here in this one. Blowout city, blowout special. Arizona Coyotes, easy money line minus one 18.”
3-2 — Arizona beat the LA Kings 3-2, so the Coyotes moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“the betonline.ag line for this one, Maryland, minus 4 at Northwestern. Thoughts on this one? Well, Maryland, the reason they're on a roll right now, playing some defense. How about this? in the last 10 games, you think of these top two teams that have been locking people down. Michigan, they're giving up just 38% field goal percentage. Purdue, 39. But the best in the Big Ten, the Maryland Terrapins here. And, I mean, until they got a road win, Northwestern versus Minnesota in their last game, people don't realize this. They had lost 13 straight games. They are absolute roadkill. but the road team that's where you got to go here road team nine and two against the spread in this series so we're going to give you a level two get over hump day lock here Maryland Terrapins I think they're going to blow out Northwestern here easy winner”
55-60 — Northwestern beat Maryland 60-55, so Maryland -4 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“line for UConn, minus one and a half at Seton Hall. Give me your breakdown on this one. Wow, the money is all over Connecticut. So this is a game looking now at the tournament coming up. UConn, they're thought of right now as one of those teams that's not going to have to play a play-in game. And they're one of those four teams they feel if they continue to win or go, let's say, three and one in the next four games, you have two regular season games. And let's say they go two games in the tournament, they go something like three and one, then they're not going to have to play a play in game. But Seton Hall right now, they're sitting as probably playing one of those playing games barely in the tournament. So a lot of people will think, wow, UConn, you know, the only game they lost since February 10th was against Villanova. I'll take them. Just lay one and a half. All they got to do is beat Seton Hall. They'll get revenge for losing about a month ago, 80 to 73. Well, Seton Hall, big game for them. They dominated the first game. They own the glass here. I just think they're going to shoot threes here against UConn at home. Home court is going to be big here. So we're going to take Seton Hall. Sometimes that one game that can get a team from right on the bubble to inside the bubble and not having to play that play-in game, which you don't want any part of, is going to be big. So we're going to take Seton Hall here plus the one and a half at home.”
69-58 — UConn beat Seton Hall 69-58, so Seton Hall +1.5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.ag line for this one. Baylor minus four and a half at West Virginia. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? Well, a couple things jumped out right away to me in that game. They just were off. I mean, they couldn't shoot the basketball. They were 34.8% field goal percentage. And it wasn't like they had a bunch that rimmed out. They were 23.1% on their three-point shooting. And this will really scare you. You know you're not in sync. six for 16 from the free throw line. That is un-Baylor-esque. So I don't think they can play as bad as they played again. I think it was a nice wake-up call. For some reason, they play really well against top teams. And I think they're going to have their undivided attention after that loss. But they do well against teams with plus 600 records, 12-3 against the spread. That's not straight up 12-3 against the spread the last 15 road games against really good teams, plus 600 teams here. So hey West Virginia playing well but sixth ranking I mean there three great teams right now in college basketball in my opinion Then there a big drop There 17 I can remember a 17 ever being ranked number six in the country So, hey, Miles McBride has been a pleasant surprise, averaging over 15 points and almost five assists per game. But I think they're going to clamp down on him, cut him down a little bit. And I like Baylor. I'm going to lay the four and a half.”
94-89 — Baylor beat West Virginia 94-89 in overtime, so Baylor -4.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.ag line for this one. Arkansas, minus 6.5 versus South Carolina. Break this down for the wrong team favored. Okay so Arkansas has quietly just moved up each and every week They 19 most people couldn tell you that And playing some good basketball Now, you know, being a college basketball historian, a lot of people can't even remember the name of the old arena. It was Barnhill Arena. And they used to play full-court press, I mean, 48 minutes. They wouldn't stop. They were incredible. Starting to get that mojo going. their recruiting. I like the way they're coached. I like their shot selection. They have six wins in a row here, including a 15-point wipeout of Alabama. But they're 2-7 the last nine trips to Columbia here. And even though South Carolina is 6-12, I think they got some confidence after laying it on Georgia. They thumped the Bulldogs on Saturday here. So I think that Arkansas might peeking ahead to the tournament. So this is a real scary week in college basketball because it's the week before the tournaments. All these teams, these players and coaches are looking where they're seated right now. And sometimes there's a team that they're not really preparing for. But you know what? They get caught. So we're going to take South Carolina here. Plus six and a half, wrong team favored.”
101-73 — Arkansas beat South Carolina 101-73, so South Carolina +6.5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.ag line for Georgia Tech, minus two versus Duke. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so Duke was starting to get it going. Four-game winning streak, but then Louisville, which is a solid team, tripped them up. This is a must game here for Duke. And both of these two teams are sitting on the bubble. But Georgia Tech's in a little bit better spot. They sit number seven in the ACC at nine and six, while Duke is sitting number eight at nine and seven. The game's at home here at Georgia Tech. I think Georgia Tech just playing a little bit better. They won four straight. Also, 4-0 against the spread, the last four against teams with a winning record here. So they've got two tough games here, Duke. They're going to win this game on the road, and then they're going to win at North Carolina on Saturday. So, you know, I'm just not buying this defense here. That's the problem for Duke. Opponents shooting an un-Duke-esque 46% from the field. Usually they're at 41%, 42%. So it happens sometimes when you're filling out a roster with mainly freshmen. They just don't come together. and also they're 2-8 against the spread the last 10 games against teams on the road that have winning records here. Level 1 lock, Georgia Tech minus the 2.”
81-77 — Georgia Tech beat Duke 81-77 in overtime, so Georgia Tech -2 covers (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.ag line for this one, Lakers, minus 1.5 versus Phoenix. What are your thoughts on this one? Well, I mean, Phoenix, I think most people thought they'd be a 500 team, maybe barely over 500. Everything goes right. The addition of Chris Paul, they're 22-11. How about this? Everyone's talking about Utah. Let's talk about the Phoenix Suns. They've won 11 of the last 13. They're blistering teams. Why Chris Paul? Going into the last game, he had two points. Two points in a game against Minnesota. Two points going into the fourth quarter. You know what? Didn't bother him. He shares the ball. So you see teams that get rid of the ball quickly and don't just sit at the top of the key. Hey, everyone loves to watch James Harden. But James Harden, unless he has two or three superstars around him, is not winning a championship unless he's sharing the ball. That's what Chris Paul does. Hey, at the end of the game, get 15 points, but he got everyone involved. Jimmy Phoenix here. This is a trap line. They're saying, oh, the Lakers at home laying one and a half. They won the last two games. All the team. Well, not so. We're going with the Phoenix Suns plus one and a half points here.”
114-104 — Phoenix beat the LA Lakers 114-104 outright, so Phoenix +1.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“So I think it going to be a 6 final here I going to take the over six goals minus 106 High scoring If you at home don even leave your seat to get a billboard here”
6-2 — San Jose beat Colorado 6-2, combined 8 goals, so the over 6 covers (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Oregon, minus 4.5 versus Arizona. Thoughts on this one? Okay, so the Ducks are two, ranked number two right now in the conference standings, the Pac-12, Arizona number five. And they actually beat Arizona, did conference leader USC on February 20th, lost to the Ducks February 13th by two points. They are not going to the tournament. People aren't aware they took a self-imposed postseason ban. And so they want to finish strong here in their last couple games here. and how they've been able to do it. Two transfers. They get a kid from Georgetown, Kinko, and he's amazing. Like what he does on the floor here, averaging 12 points per game, third leading score. And their leading score was a Kentucky transfer. Jamari Baker, Jr., he's leading them with 15.4 points per game and over five assists per game here. I just think they have more size. And how about this? The dog, 4-1 against the spread in the series. Also, the road team, 4-1 against the spread last five in this series. So, I think Oregon's just kind of cruising, trying to finish the regular season here. Arizona, not going to postseason. They want to get a nice little revenge spot against the Oregon Ducks here. Wrong team's favorite. Arizona, they pull off the shocker tonight against the Oregon Ducks.”
80-69 — Oregon beat Arizona 80-69, so the Arizona moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“The BetOnline.ag line for this one. Portland, minus six and a half for Charlotte. How are you feeling this game? Okay, so stayed up last night, and as I was having one of my bill bars, didn't have anything on the game, but taking notes, and I'm watching that Charlotte-Sacramento game, and Charlotte hits a shot, I mean, right at the end, and it was incredible, and the guy gets fouled, makes the free throw. They win 127 to 126. It was exhausting just watching the game. So they beat Sacramento. Now they've got to go on the road. And what's Portland been doing? They've been sitting at home since Friday. Yeah, they lost four straight games. The last three were against a streaking Phoenix, Denver, and the L.A. Lakers, which is kind of to be expected. But they can run you out of the building. They eighth shooting at 38 Fourth shooting 82 which is real important to get the lead and to keep it And seventh in offensive rebounding at 10 per game I just think that they're going to be hitting that glass, play with more energy here. Charlotte on top of playing last night and playing a grueling but great road win, fourth of a five-game road trip here. I'm laying the six-and-a-half.”
123-111 — Portland beat Charlotte 123-111, so Portland -6.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“but right now I'm going to take the 7.5 points in Miami. [5:19] The wrong team is favored. [5:21] This game's going down to the wire.”
124-116 — Miami beat Utah 124-116, so Miami +7.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“indiana state laying the three blowout special blow out city they'll probably lead this game”
58-43 — Indiana State beat Valparaiso 58-43, so Indiana State -3 covers (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to lay the 145. [12:36] I think Jimmy Rivera just dominates this fight here. [12:39] boxer, a little better wrestler. [12:43] So sometimes you don't have to have a KO to win a bout here. [12:47] So level three lock.”
Pedro Munhoz defeated Jimmie Rivera by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 20, so the Rivera moneyline lost (ESPN). (Munhoz def. Rivera by unanimous decision)
“Early lock, level two lock, Ohio State laying the four over Michigan State.”
71-67 — Michigan State beat Ohio State 71-67, so Ohio State -4 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“Utah, or UCLA, minus one at Utah. [8:01] What are your thoughts? [8:02] So people are looking at this game, most people will, and they'll say, [8:06] UCLA, 16-5 record. [8:10] Why are they only favored by one against a team with a 9-10 record? [8:15] So UCLA, they won three straight, seemed to be playing really well. [8:22] In fact, beat Arizona last Thursday, 74-60. [8:27] That was the most impressive win in the bunch. [8:30] Had beaten, in fact, Arizona earlier in the year. [8:33] So I think they're starting to play better. [8:35] But Utah this is where they do their best work here Coming off three straight losses they seem to play great on Thursday night In fact they 5 against the spread the last seven games on Thursday night [8:50] 5-1 against the spread the last six times when they're playing teams with winning record. [8:55] And I love this pure shooter named Timmy Allen. [8:59] He's averaging 17.3 points per game. [9:02] So the last game played in scored 15, which is not horrible. [9:06] A little under his average, but before that, you have to go all the way back to January 24th [9:13] to find a game where he scored under 17 points. [9:15] So I think he bounces back in a big way. [9:18] He's averaging 6.3 rebounds per game. [9:21] UCLA, 0-4 against the spread versus teams with a losing record. [9:25] Just don't seem to get up for these games. [9:28] And always when things seem to be working out for UCLA in basketball, football, and baseball, [9:34] that's where you've got to look out. [9:35] they take a crashing halt and usually lose a game. [9:40] I like Utah here. [9:41] I love their coach, Larry Kristoviak. [9:44] They had a lot of COVID cases going on for a while, cancellations, [9:48] but this is going to be their time. [9:50] Wrong team favorite, the Utes, the running Utes, [9:53] 9-10 over the 16-5 UCLA Bruins.”
76-61 — UCLA beat Utah 76-61 outright, so Utah +1 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“Columbus at home. [11:48] Money line. [11:49] Minus one, 13 over the Chicago Blackhawks.”
2-0 — Chicago beat Columbus 2-0, so the Columbus moneyline did not cash (ESPN box score).
“Lay the five here. [15:20] It's my late lock, also a level two lock.”
79-57 — Michigan beat Iowa 79-57, so Michigan -5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Got some college hoop action. WTF, wrong team favored. Rutgers, they're 12-9. They're at home going up against Indiana, 12-10. Looks really good. Really, man, like a heck of a game on paper. The betonline.ag line for this one. Rutgers, minus 3.5 against Indiana. Thoughts on this one? [5:18] So both teams are on the outside looking in probably right now for the NCAA tournament. [5:23] But if either of these teams gets on a run and wins like five of seven, six of eight, [5:28] I think they'll get in Indiana a better resume in February, going three and three. [5:33] Big 10, I think that and Big 12, two toughest conferences right now in college basketball. [5:39] Rutgers, only two and three. [5:42] Teams torch Indiana from the three-point line, [5:45] but Rutgers just 31.8% from behind the three-point line. [5:50] That ranks 174th in the country out of over 350 teams. [5:55] And if you've got a close game, you're laying three and a half in this game, [5:59] do you really want to lay that kind of point at home with a team [6:03] that's shooting just 62.5% from the charity stripe? [6:08] That's 194th in the country here. [6:11] So if you're going to lay two, three, four, five points, [6:14] you want a team shooting in the 70s from the free throw line here, [6:18] I just think Indiana, a little bit better athlete, [6:21] a little bit better team, getting three and a half points, [6:25] wrong team's favorite. [6:26] Indiana knocks off Rutgers tonight, wrong team favorite.”
74-63 — Rutgers beat Indiana 74-63, so Indiana +3.5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“Now, minus 117, small line, Philadelphia Flyers, level two lock over the New York Rangers.”
4-3 — Philadelphia beat the NY Rangers 4-3, so the Flyers moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Boston, minus two and a half points here. [12:33] Blow out city. [12:35] Blow out special.”
127-112 — Atlanta beat Boston 127-112, so Boston -2.5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“So level three lock right out of the gate. [3:32] I want my money. [3:34] Orlando laying three and a half.”
105-93 — Detroit beat Orlando 105-93, a margin of -12 against the -3.5 line; Orlando -3.5 does not cover (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.ag line for this one is Virginia Tech minus 2.5 versus Georgia Tech. [7:37] How are you feeling this game? [7:38] Short and sweet here. [7:39] Wrong team's favorite. [7:41] Virginia Tech is 14-4. [7:43] They're ranked 16. [7:44] Now, why are they only laying 2.5 points to Georgia Tech, who's 11-8? [7:49] Well, they haven't played since February 6th. [7:53] In that game, they beat Miami 80-76. [7:56] They shouldn't have won the game. [7:57] they ended up having to tie it with less than a second to go on a three-pointer when actually [8:04] the player stepped out of bounds before we got the ball the officials missed it so [8:09] Virginia Tech is missing their second leading score their fourth and fifth guard also are out [8:17] they've been out for a little while now so you combine that their second leading scorer who's a [8:21] guard three of the top five guards are out here Georgia Tech watched them against Miami play first They destroyed Miami 48 at half Some of the crispest passing I seen in a long time Sharing the ball wrong team favorite [8:37] Georgia Tech, who's just 11-8 and not ranked.”
53-69 — Georgia Tech beat Virginia Tech 69-53, a margin of +16 against the +2.5 line; Georgia Tech +2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“the sacramento kings 12 and 18 on the season bet online.ag live for this one brooklyn minus six and a half for sacramento uh what's your thoughts on this one lee okay so sacramento's awful 12 and 18 [9:16] same thing i mean they started yeah for the first couple games it looked like there was some promise [9:22] but now they've lost seven straight. [9:25] Brooklyn, 20-12. [9:26] Now they finally look like the class of the Eastern Conference. [9:30] They've won six straight, even without Kevin Durant. [9:33] These two teams played each other less than two weeks ago. [9:38] And Brooklyn, you know, they didn't do much to start the game. [9:41] Sacramento scores 125. [9:43] And you think 125, oh, that's a nice upset. [9:46] No, it wasn't enough. [9:48] They still lost by double digits. [9:49] They lost 136 to 125. [9:52] They lose by 11 points when you score 125 points. [9:56] That's absolutely ridiculous. [9:58] Brooklyn does great on Tuesday games. [10:00] I don't know what it is about Tuesday. [10:02] They're like me. [10:03] 39-19 and won the last 59 Tuesday games here. [10:08] And in this seven-game losing streak for the Canes, [10:11] the closest loss was eight points without Harrison Barnes. [10:14] I never thought I'd say this, [10:15] but they're lost without a mediocre starting player, Brooklyn. [10:21] They're going to get that easy win over the Sacramento Kings. [10:24] No doubt about that. [10:25] And let me ask you this about Brooklyn, because Kevin Durant's been out. [10:28] He's got the hamstring injury, kind of nursing that. [10:31] But, of course, they've got the two stars in Harden and Kyrie Irving. [10:34] Do the Brooklyn Nets seem like a better team with two out of the three guys playing? [10:38] Yeah, I don't know what it is. [10:39] I mean, they look like they've been playing forever, which they haven't. [10:43] You'd think like Durant, you know, with him in there, they would just absolutely roll. [10:49] But with those two guys in there, there's something else. [10:52] I mean, they're shooting from the outside. [10:54] They're driving. [10:55] They're dishing. [10:56] I love it. [10:57] Yeah, no, they're playing some really, really good balls. [10:59] So a big blowout right there, Brooklyn over Sacramento.”
118-127 — Brooklyn beat Sacramento 127-118, a margin of +9 against the -6.5 line; Brooklyn -6.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Texas minus 2.5 versus Jayhawks. [13:05] Thoughts on this game, Lee? [13:06] Yeah, and it's a big game here. [13:08] Kansas has got to keep winning. [13:09] They want to make the tournament. [13:11] Texas, you know, they had that long layoff. [13:14] But they seem to be starting to get it back. [13:16] In fact, they already beat Kansas in Kansas 84-59 about a month ago. [13:22] So I think they're going to come out of the gate strong. [13:25] They lost a 19-point lead Saturday versus West Virginia in that 84-82 loss. [13:31] You know, everyone talks about Andrew Jones. [13:33] Great story. [13:33] Loved the kid coming back. [13:35] You know, had cancer. [13:36] But Matt Coleman III is the answer of late. [13:39] He's 17 for 20. [13:41] He's the other guard in this Texas lineup. [13:45] 17 for 20 from the field the last three games. [13:48] His senior guard is up to scoring average to 13.1 points per game. [13:53] Kansas, five straight wins, but two of those five were against Iowa State, [13:57] a bottom feeder, and one was against Kansas State, another bottom feeder. [14:02] They're one and four against the spread the last five road games [14:05] versus teams with winning records here. [14:07] Texas Longhorns. [14:09] Start strong. [14:10] They finish strong. [14:12] Just like they say in Texas. [14:14] All the eyes are upon us here. [14:16] The eyes of Texas are upon us. [14:19] All eyes are on me here. [14:20] Texas Longhorns. [14:22] Big winner over Kansas.”
72-75 — Texas beat Kansas 75-72 in overtime, a margin of +3 against the -2.5 line; Texas -2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Give me five points in Syracuse. [8:47] The wrong team is favored.”
71-85 — Duke beat Syracuse 85-71; Syracuse +5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“Give me Texas State minus three. [10:12] I see them winning this game by 7-10. [10:14] Blowout special, Texas State Bobcats.”
57-52 — Texas State beat Arkansas State 57-52, a margin of +5 against the -3 line; Texas State -3 covers (ESPN box score). The previously stored resolution cited an unrelated Texas-Kansas score.
“getting six and a half points, level one lock, [14:56] Portland Trailblazers on the road against Phoenix.”
100-132 — Phoenix beat Portland 132-100, a margin of -32 against the +6.5 line; Portland +6.5 does not cover (ESPN box score).
“Georgia, plus eight. [3:35] It's going to be just like last night's wrong team favorite [3:38] where the Norse of northern Kentucky take this game down to the wire. [3:43] The Norse won it outright. [3:44] Wouldn't shock me if Georgia beats Florida in Gainesville.”
63-70 — Florida beat Georgia 70-63, a margin of -7 against the +8 line; Georgia +8 covers by 1 point (ESPN box score).
“We'll take Toronto Moneyline, minus 109 here, straight to the bank, blowout special.”
3-5 — Toronto beat Montreal 5-3; Toronto Maple Leafs moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“So we going to go with Sexy Mexy here John Castaneda [9:07] It's only minus 130.”
John Castaneda defeated Eddie Wineland by first-round TKO (punches) at 4:44 of round 1 at UFC Fight Night on February 20, 2021 (ESPN/Cageside Press results). (Castaneda def. Wineland by TKO, Round 1 (4:44))
“So we're going to take Northern Kentucky plus a 9.5. [4:15] I think this game goes down to the wire. [4:17] Wouldn't shock me if they pull the huge upset here. [4:21] Northern Kentucky, Norse, plus 9.5. [4:23] Wrong team favorite against Wright State.”
75-81 — Northern Kentucky beat Wright State 81-75, a margin of +6 against the +9.5 line; Northern Kentucky +9.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“and it sales over the total here over 6.5 plus 112 Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames.”
1-2 — Edmonton beat Calgary 2-1; combined total of 3 goals is under the 6.5 line, so Over 6.5 does not cover (ESPN box score).
“Give me Boise State. [12:00] They get the sweep over Utah State. [12:02] And Boise State, which is normally a football school, [12:06] is going to be headed to the big dance. [12:08] Boise State minus one and a half over Utah State.”
77-81 — Boise State beat Utah State 81-77, a margin of +4 against the -1.5 line; Boise State -1.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.ag line for this one, well, Wisconsin minus one and a half versus Iowa. [6:50] How are you feeling this game? [6:52] Yeah, on paper, it looks like it's a close game. [6:55] But I won't do favor it here. [6:59] Okay, so Wisconsin, they blew the lead to Michigan. [7:03] They had Michigan and just couldn't close the door. [7:05] But I'm looking at the game and I'm saying to myself that one of the notes were [7:09] they're getting dominated on the board. [7:11] So many people just look at scoring. [7:14] So how have they been dominated on the board? [7:17] Well, they lost badly to Michigan on the board. [7:20] And their win against Nebraska, they even got out-rebounded. [7:23] And how about this? [7:24] I don't think you'll see this often. [7:25] And I think this is a harbinger for bad things to come. [7:29] And I should have picked up on it earlier, but I picked up on it now. [7:33] Illinois out-rebounded Wisconsin three games ago, 46-19. [7:38] Let me repeat that. [7:40] 46-19, Wisconsin got out-rebounded. [7:44] And then on top of that, last three games, they're shooting 37.5%. [7:49] Not from three-point land. [7:51] That's overall. [7:53] And another added bonus here, Luca Garza held eight points in their 88-58 win over Michigan State. [8:00] He doesn't have two bad games in a row. [8:03] Give me Iowa.”
62-77 — Iowa beat Wisconsin 77-62, a margin of +15 against the +1.5 line; Iowa +1.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for Columbus. We're going to go Moneyline minus 123 versus Nashville.”
0-3 — Columbus beat Nashville 3-0; Columbus Blue Jackets moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“level three lock Sacramento plus one point.”
118-110 — Miami beat Sacramento 118-110, a margin of -8 against the +1 line; Sacramento +1 does not cover (ESPN box score).
“Duke, minus 6.5 at Wake Forest. [3:03] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [3:05] Yeah, so earlier in the year, if you were to say that Wake Forest is going to have a chance in this game, [3:11] you know, probably say you're crazy. [3:13] But Duke, since that first win, January 9th, when they won by 11, 79, 68 at home, just different teams. [3:20] I mean, how about this? [3:22] In the last 16 games, Duke is 4-12 against the spread. [3:27] One of their best players, Jalen Johnson, he opted out, [3:30] said he's going to get ready for the draft. [3:32] I mean, these are just the craziest times ever. [3:34] I mean, can you imagine walking in to tell Coach K, [3:38] you know what, I'm just going to sit out the rest of the year. [3:40] I'm good. [3:41] So these kids they got some guts I would never have had the courage to do something like that But Wake Forest started off horrible I mean this is a new team a new coach Steve Forbes comes over from East Tennessee State University [3:55] did great things there, taking over for Danny Manning. [3:58] I just thought they were underachievers. [4:00] My daughter actually goes to school in Winston-Salem. [4:02] I saw two of their home games last year and was not impressed at all. [4:06] But they lost their first six conference games. [4:09] But since then, they've beaten teams like Pitt, Miami, and Boston College. [4:14] And then they had Florida State. [4:16] They lost in overtime by seven. [4:19] They had them. [4:19] They led the entire game. [4:21] So I think that they're starting to believe in themselves to be able to play with a team like Florida State on the road. [4:27] And they're at home here. [4:29] They're getting six and a half points. [4:31] Revenge, wrong team, is favored. [4:35] Wake Forest, they might even win outright against Duke here.”
84-60 — Duke beat Wake Forest 84-60; Wake Forest +6.5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“I'm laying the four-and-a-half points, believe it or not, on the road here. [6:48] Blowout special.”
96-114 — Utah Jazz beat LA Clippers 114-96, a margin of +18 against the -4.5 line; Utah -4.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“New Orleans, minus three versus Portland. [9:28] What are your thoughts on this one? [9:29] I mean, two of the stars in the NBA I love watching. [9:32] Zion Williamson. [9:34] I mean, is there any more efficient player in the NBA? [9:38] Just look at his last four games. [9:40] Last game, 13 for 16 from the field. [9:43] Scores 31 points. [9:44] Then he has an off game. [9:46] Only shoots 10 for 20. [9:47] Then the two before that, 14 for 15 and 12 for 18. [9:51] He's averaging 24.4 points per game. [9:54] It's not like the guy plays 40, 42 minutes a night either. [9:57] They're looking at it for the long term. [9:59] They want to preserve him, but he averages almost seven rebounds a game. [10:04] He dishes out almost three assists per game. [10:08] The only small little semi-weakness is he only shoots 71% from the free throw line. [10:15] Damian Lillard, I mean, he's carrying the team since McCallum's put out. [10:19] He's averaging 29 points per game, four rebounds, 7.3 assists. [10:25] Are you kidding me? [10:27] And how about this? [10:28] This is like Rick Berry-esque. [10:30] I mean, I'm giving you my age away a little bit. [10:33] 93.4% from the free throw line. [10:36] I mean, that and Larry Bird-esque. [10:39] So two great players going head-to-head. [10:41] But there is a little bit of a difference here. [10:44] So Portland actually better shooting team. [10:47] Sixth and shooting. [10:48] New Orleans 20th. [10:50] And if it comes down to a close game, line is three points here. [10:54] New Orleans at home. [10:55] New Orleans, not one of the better free throw shooting teams. [10:59] They're number 28, actually, in the league, in the association. [11:03] It's 73% Portland, number three, 82.6%. [11:08] I'm going to go with Portland here. [11:10] I'm going to go with my level two lock Portland Trailblazers over New Orleans.”
126-124 — Portland beat New Orleans 126-124, a margin of +2 against the +3 line; Portland +3 covers (ESPN box score).
“You're getting two and a half points. [6:18] Wrong team favored. [6:20] Denver knocks off Boston tonight in Beantown.”
99-112 — Boston beat Denver 112-99 on Feb 16, 2021; the Nuggets lost by 13, missing the +2.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“Purdue big, minus 5.5 over Michigan State.”
75-65 — Purdue beat Michigan State 75-65 on Feb 16, 2021, covering the -5.5 spread by 10 (ESPN box score).
“Arkansas at home [13:18] minus four level [13:20] two lock over the Florida Gators”
75-64 — Arkansas beat Florida 75-64 on Feb 16, 2021, covering the -4 spread by 11 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to take the five points, wrong team favorite, [5:00] and would not shock me if they win this game here outright. [5:04] So just too much to ask here for UCSB to win this game by more than five points [5:11] on the islands, and never mind all the distractions. [5:14] So, Hawaii, strong, wrong team favorite here.”
50-59 — UC Santa Barbara beat Hawaii 59-50 on Feb 12, 2021; Hawaii lost by 9, missing the +5 cover (Wikipedia game log, corroborating the UCSB team schedule).
“I like them here, minus seven and a half. Blowout special, Friday [7:29] night firecracker, UTEP, blowout over FIU.”
75-59 — UTEP beat FIU 75-59 on Feb 12, 2021, covering the -7.5 spread by 16 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to lay the 144 here on Saturday night in UFC 258. [14:00] Chris El Guapo Gutierrez over Andre, Mr. Highlight Yule.”
Chris Gutierrez defeated Andre Ewell by unanimous decision (30-26, 29-28, 29-27) at UFC 258 on Feb 13, 2021, winning outright on the -144 moneyline (Wikipedia UFC 258 results).
“We're going to go with Detroit Moneyline plus 155. [5:20] Break that one down for us, Lee.”
2-3 — Nashville beat Detroit 3-2 on Feb 11, 2021 on a Dante Fabbro goal with 59.2 seconds left; the Red Wings lost outright on the +155 moneyline (ESPN box score/recap).
“I like Fresno State. [8:20] Minus four. [8:20] Blowout special over Air Force.”
69-63 — Fresno State beat Air Force 69-63 on Feb 11, 2021, covering the -4 spread by 6 (ESPN box score).
“Level 3 lock. [11:45] We're going big. [11:46] Sometimes you've got to go big or go home. [11:48] Portland plus five and a half points level three lock”
114-118 — Portland beat Philadelphia 118-114 on Feb 11, 2021; the Blazers won outright, covering the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Tulsa, minus 7.5 over Tulane. [3:18] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [3:19] So if you look at these two teams, Q, you would think they're almost mirror images. [3:24] Look at the scores they've played teams, who they've beaten, who they've lost to. [3:28] So not much difference between these two teams. [3:32] And Tulane, except for losses to Houston twice in one of their games, [3:37] they have not lost by more than seven points So the defense gives up just 64 points per game which is 53rd in the country in scoring So they just seem to play a lot of games that are between three and seven [3:51] points, winning and losing. [3:53] And even last year they played in February. [3:57] Tulsa beat Tulane 62-57. [4:00] That would be under the spread here. [4:02] So both teams, no momentum. [4:04] They've lost each of the last two games here. [4:06] I'll pick the seven and a half. [4:07] These are two middle-of-the-road, lower-level teams in their conference, [4:12] and they'll slug it out. [4:14] One team will win with a nice little run at the end, hit a few free throws. [4:18] Might be Tulsa that might win here by three, four, five points, [4:22] but Lane 7.5 too much. [4:24] Wrong team favorite. [4:25] Tulane, we're going to ride the green wave here over the Tulsa Hurricane.”
58-48 — Tulane beat Tulsa 58-48 on Feb 10, 2021; as a +7.5 underdog that won outright, Tulane covered easily (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to lay the four points here. [6:09] I think Dallas runs away and hides from the Atlanta Hawks, [6:13] but it'll be interesting. [6:14] I'm going to say Luka has 42, 14 assists and nine rebounds, [6:23] and I'm going to say Trae Young on the other side has 36 or 38 points. [6:27] He doesn't pass the ball as much. [6:29] Dallas here, blowout special over Atlanta.”
118-117 — Dallas beat Atlanta 118-117 on Feb 10, 2021; the 1-point margin missed the -4 spread (ESPN box score).
“Milwaukee Bucks laying the 4.5 level 2 lock over the Phoenix Suns.”
124-125 — Phoenix beat Milwaukee 125-124 on Feb 10, 2021; the Bucks lost outright, missing the -4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm playing Indianapolis at 25 to one. [12:08] Hey, you put a hundred bucks on that. [12:10] Let it sit tight. [12:11] You might be hitting on $2,500. [12:15] Wow. [12:15] Let's go with the Indianapolis Colts at 25 to one.”
23-20 — The Los Angeles Rams beat the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20 to win Super Bowl LVI on Feb 13, 2022; the Colts did not make or win the game, so the futures bet lost (CNN).
“Texas Tech will lay the 5.5 and ride the Red Raiders to victory at home”
82-71 — West Virginia won at Texas Tech 82-71 on Feb 9, 2021; Texas Tech lost outright, missing the -5.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“I'll lay the five, even on the road here. [8:37] Blowout special number two to James Madison Dukes over the Elon Phoenix.”
70-61 — James Madison beat Elon 70-61 on Feb 9, 2021, covering the -5 spread by 9 (ESPN box score).
“The over is 5.5 goals on this, minus 117. [11:18] That's the betonline.ag line for it again. [11:20] Florida versus Detroit, over 5.5 goals, minus 117. [11:24] What are your thoughts on this one? [11:25] Okay, so we lost in hockey for the first time in a while. [11:29] We are 45-23-2 in the hockey this year, [11:36] and I don't know anyone that can match those numbers. [11:38] So look for us to bounce back, [11:40] and we found a lock here. [11:43] So the Panthers goalie, [11:46] Sergei Bobrovsky, [11:47] has been awful to start this year. [11:50] He was bad the entire year last year. [11:53] He just has just an 881 save percentage. [11:57] He's allowing an average of 3.57 goals [12:00] against this year. [12:01] Those numbers have come in four starts [12:03] against four teams that are [12:05] all in the bottom half of the league in scoring. [12:07] What's funny is, [12:08] he's still 3-0-1 on the year because his team has scored 17 goals in those four games. [12:16] He's getting bailed out by his offense. [12:18] Detroit held Florida to just one goal in their matchup a few nights ago in Florida, [12:23] winning 4-1. [12:24] This team is not good enough to do that again. [12:26] They're simply one of the worst teams in the NHL across the board [12:30] with the Panthers looking for some quick revenge here [12:33] and two inferior goalies starting tonight. [12:35] I expect Florida to put up a better effort than just the one goal to capitalize on a real poor penalty killing unit. [12:44] So let's go with you over here. [12:48] I think it's going to be something like a 6-4, 5-4 game here. [12:55] It's going to go way over five and a half goals. [12:57] Level two lock for us here today.”
2-1 — Florida Panthers beat Detroit Red Wings 2-1 on Feb 9, 2021; combined total of 3 goals fell under the 5.5 line (ESPN box score).
“And my hidden gem, Kentucky, believe it or not, [15:41] 5-12 is going to knock off Arkansas at home.”
81-80 — Arkansas upset Kentucky 81-80 on Feb 9, 2021; Kentucky lost the game outright (ESPN box score).
“The Zags, minus 10 at BYU. [5:11] Lee, how you feeling this game? [5:13] Okay, so the public is going to play Gonzaga here. [5:17] They are going to play them because they're ranked number one in the country. [5:20] They're 18-0, and they probably have maybe three of the top five or six players in college basketball. [5:29] But they have one weakness, and it's the one thing BYU does really well. [5:34] They have trouble defending the perimeter in three-point shooters. [5:38] They're allowing 34% in three-point shooters from a number one team. [5:42] That's a little alarming. [5:43] you know if you're truly dominant and going to beat the very best and they don't play a real [5:49] tough schedule playing in the west coast conference that number should be about 29 30 percent top so [5:55] so i've seen some strange things happen in the marriott center the basketball building where [6:00] byu plays and i'm talking about going back to danny age when he used to play there and and [6:06] so many great players uh the jimmer for dead so uh i just think by you plus 10 at home is the right [6:14] side here so uh not saying by you is going to win the game but i think this is finally going to be [6:20] the first time that the kanzaga has a game where they don't win by double digits in conference [6:24] wrong team favorite by you cougars at home boom there it is right there uh the zags they're”
82-71 — Gonzaga beat BYU 82-71 on Feb 8, 2021; BYU lost by 11, missing the +10 cover (ESPN box score).
“SMU lane six blows out the East Carolina Pirates.”
71-56 — SMU beat East Carolina 71-56 on Feb 8, 2021, covering the -6 spread by 15 (ESPN box score).
“Milwaukee, minus four at Denver. [11:02] How are you feeling this one? [11:03] What are you thinking? [11:03] Okay, so a couple weeks ago, Denver was hot. [11:08] And I was playing the Nuggets and feeling good about them. [11:12] But I told you last week, I said, you know what? [11:14] When they played the Lakers, they don't play good enough defense. [11:17] And what happened? [11:19] They went down in that game. [11:20] And they lost that game by 21 points. [11:25] So then they lose again to Sacramento. [11:28] It's their defense. [11:29] they're rated 21st in the NBA [11:32] in defensive efficiency rating. [11:34] So a lot of people see [11:36] two wide open offenses and they figure oh okay I go with the home team But it defense that wins big games It defense that wins championships So Denver trending in the wrong direction after [11:49] winning five straight, winning and losing the last two, and Milwaukee, exact opposite. I mean, [11:55] this is a team that has won the last four games, been on the road two games, and just blew out [12:04] Cleveland twice beat Portland and Indiana before that. [12:08] All four games blow out city. [12:10] I think they have it in them to win a couple more easy here. [12:13] I just think that this team is finally coming together. [12:16] They're under the radar. [12:17] There's always teams like Utah. [12:19] They're one off like 11, 12, 15 in a row, and you're like, why did I see it? [12:23] Here it is. [12:24] Milwaukee's going to go on a big-time run. [12:26] They're winning four in a row right now. [12:28] Make it five in a row. [12:29] You do not want to step in front of this Milwaukee Bucks train here. [12:34] Level 2 block here, the Milwaukee Bucks, easy on the road over Denver.”
125-112 — Milwaukee beat Denver 125-112 on Feb 8, 2021, covering the -4 spread by 13 (ESPN box score).
“that the betonline line for this is under 56 yeah so teams are playing here for a second time Rematches usually more of a defensive struggle [3:26] The game slows down. [3:28] I don't think we're going to see Tom Brady throwing the ball 41 times [3:32] like he did in the first game. [3:34] I don't see Kansas City racing out to a 17-0 lead. [3:38] They just did not have a guard to re-kill. [3:41] I mean, he was off to the races. [3:44] So I think it's going to be more running by both teams. [3:49] I think Kansas City doesn't want to expose both of their offensive tackles, [3:52] which are backups. [3:54] They don't want it to end in one of those Super Bowls where Von Miller, [3:59] he ends up getting the MVP where a linebacker defensive end is in the backfield [4:04] early and often. [4:05] And also feel that Tampa is going to want to run the ball. [4:08] Ronald Jones is healthy again. [4:09] And so we're going to go under 56 and feel pretty confident and comfortable”
31-9 — Tampa Bay defeated Kansas City 31-9 (40 combined points); Under 56 won (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Clippers here. [6:16] A lot special minus the six over the Boston Celtics.”
115-119 — Boston defeated LA Clippers 119-115; Clippers -6 lost outright and did not cover (ESPN box score).
“We're going to lay the two and a half, the FIU Golden Panthers, [8:35] and I'm going to be going to this game. [8:37] I'll be one of maybe 20 people in the attendance, [8:40] and I like FIU over Texas San Antonio. [8:44] Level three lock.”
87-80 — UTSA defeated FIU 87-80; FIU -2.5 lost outright (ESPN box score).
“I want to add Kansas City running back Clyde Edwards-Hilaire, [9:19] over 33.5 rushing yards. [9:22] minus 105 like”
Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for 64 yards on 9 carries in Super Bowl LV, over the 33.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 64 rushing yards)
“there's a total tonight, Boston and Philly, [12:09] over 5.5, minus 110. [12:12] I love the over here. [12:15] I think we're going to see probably [12:17] 7 or 8 goals scored [12:20] the Flyers were thoroughly outplayed [12:22] the first time [12:24] they played the Bruins [12:25] they led for most of the game [12:27] but they were outshot 35-25 [12:29] so I think it's going to be a furious [12:31] first quarter and it's going to set the pace here [12:33] let's go over 5.5”
2-1 — Boston defeated Philadelphia 2-1 (3 combined goals); Over 5.5 lost (ESPN box score).
“wrong team is favored Moorhead State straight up plus the three”
66-56 — Morehead State defeated Murray State 66-56 outright, covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“Iowa minus 5 blowout special blowout city over Ohio State”
89-85 — Ohio State defeated Iowa 89-85 (margin 4); Iowa -5 lost outright and did not cover (ESPN box score).
“The Lakers, laying five, level two lock.”
114-93 — LA Lakers defeated Denver 114-93 (margin 21); Lakers -5 covered (ESPN box score).
“And, Lee, what are your thoughts on Leonard Fournette under 51.5 yards, minus 110? [10:32] That's the betonline.ag line. [10:34] So I liked Leonard Fournette down the stretch. [10:36] I liked him in the first couple games of the playoffs, [10:39] but now all of a sudden Ronald Jones is healthy again. [10:43] I think that Ronald Jones will be the starter. [10:47] I think Ronald Jones will get the Lions' share of the carries. [10:50] I think that they're going to have to use their backs out of the backfield more than normal. [10:55] That's how Tom Brady likes to do it. [10:57] And if you remember this James White remember him when he was with New England he holds the record for most receptions by a running back So that the way he likes to roll here So I expect them to use both guys out of the backfield a little more than normal [11:12] So that's why I'm going under 51.5 total rushing yards for Leonard Fournette here.”
Leonard Fournette rushed for 89 yards on 16 carries in Super Bowl LV, well over the 51.5-yard Under line (ESPN box score). (Leonard Fournette: 89 rushing yards)
“Hey I understand TCU isn great They lost five straight But even their biggest weakness free throws 62 We don need to win the game We getting four and a half points [4:02] So let's say they have a lead. [4:04] Okay, let's say they win the game by one or two or they lose by two, three, [4:08] or four points, still going to cover. [4:10] They do one thing strong that keeps them in a lot of games. [4:14] They average 35.1 rebounds per game here. [4:16] I think the game goes down to the wire again. [4:18] Wrong team favorite, TCU Horned Frogs.”
81-78 — TCU defeated Oklahoma State 81-78 outright, covering +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm laying the four points here. [6:14] Blowout special here. [6:16] Virginia Tech, big time over Pitt.”
72-83 — Pittsburgh defeated Virginia Tech 83-72 (margin 11); Virginia Tech -4 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“The Heat, minus 8 versus Washington. [8:28] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [8:30] Okay, so I have a tough time backing bad teams. [8:34] You have to have great spots, but this is not a good one for Washington. [8:38] So Washington is a team, 4-13. [8:42] They are coming off losing at home to Portland. [8:45] before that in the five games previously. [8:50] The only high, and they'll probably be talking about it in March still, [8:54] is they beat Brooklyn on Sunday, 149-146. [8:58] But all the other games, I mean, lost by 21, lost by 29, 16, 18 points. [9:09] I mean, the list goes on and on. [9:10] They're not competitive. [9:12] Yeah, they have a nice offense. [9:13] I mean, they're third in the league in scoring, but 30th in defense. [9:18] And here's the underlying story. [9:21] A couple things. [9:22] Bradley Beal, I think he's going to eventually ask for his way out. [9:26] They're not winning in Washington. [9:28] It may not happen when our kids have kids. [9:32] I mean, it's going to take forever. [9:35] It's just not set up their whole infrastructure and their front office and their coaching to win. [9:42] And on top of that, I think Bradley Beal wants to be a Miami. [9:45] And Miami needs that extra superstar. [9:48] If you want to compete with Milwaukee, you want to compete with Brooklyn, [9:51] the Clippers, and the Lakers, you've got to have three superstars. [9:54] He only has two with Butler and Adebayo. [9:58] So I think that this is a game where Miami is going to want to blow out Washington. [10:05] And after the game, don't be surprised if you see Bradley Beal talking to Jimmy Butler [10:11] or Bam and saying, you know, they're having a little, you know, talk NBA players talk. [10:15] That's not like the old times where Larry Bird and Magic Johnson, they didn't talk after [10:21] the game. [10:21] They weren't having dinner the night before. [10:23] So I just think it's a case where they want to set the tempo. [10:26] They want to beat them bad and say, hey, come join us. [10:29] And I think he's going to ask for his way out. [10:32] And Miami's 0-5-1, last six games against the spread. [10:36] Jimmy Butler's only played in seven games this year. [10:39] He's finally back. [10:40] This is his third game back. [10:42] I think Miami, that's going to be my level two lock here. [10:45] Same with that.”
100-103 — Washington defeated Miami 103-100; Miami -8 lost outright and did not cover (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for Travis Kelsey going over 100.5 yards, minus 115. [12:30] How are you feeling this one? [12:31] The average person is going to look at this and say, oh, okay, look at 60, 70, [12:37] maybe 80 or 90, 100.5 yards. [12:41] That's a lot. [12:42] But here's the problem. [12:45] If you're going to go against that number and going to bet the under, [12:49] is Tampa Bay's linebackers are great in rushing the passer. [12:56] They're great in space and making tackles. [13:00] They can't cover for shit. [13:03] I mean, some of the worst linebackers in coverage I have ever seen. [13:08] and 80-90% of the time they're going to have to be the guys [13:12] that are trying to single or double-team Travis Kelsey. [13:16] So I think they're going to do a little bit better job, obviously. [13:19] I mean, Hill went absolutely nuts that she did in the first game, [13:24] but I think Travis Kelsey is the guy that's going to have a big game here. [13:27] I'm taking over 100.5 receiving yards for Travis Kelsey, minus 115.”
Travis Kelce recorded 10 receptions for 133 receiving yards in Super Bowl LV, clearing the 100.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Travis Kelce: 10 receptions, 133 yards)
“So total here is like 144.5. [7:48] I like the under some, but I like Texas a little bit more plus the five.”
83-69 — Baylor defeated Texas 83-69 (margin 14); Texas +5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“we're going to take the Clippers' lay the one-and-a-half blowout special. [10:48] The Clippers over Brooklyn in the TNT-featured game on Tuesday night.”
120-124 — Brooklyn defeated LA Clippers 124-120; Clippers -1.5 lost outright and did not cover (ESPN box score).
“Back up the truck over six total goals here, minus 123. [13:37] Get in on it early. [13:38] This total can only go up here. [13:41] Level two lock over six Montreal and Vancouver in hockey”
5-3 — Montreal defeated Vancouver 5-3 (8 combined goals); Over 6 won (ESPN box score).
“That's the BetOnline.ag line for Sammy Watkins' first reception, [14:05] over 10.5 yards, minus 115. [14:08] Lee, how are you feeling this one? [14:09] And Sammy Watkins seems to be a guy that gets kind of lost in the shuffle with all the talent that Kansas City has. [14:15] Yeah, he does. [14:15] And also remember this, Demarcus Robinson placed on reserve COVID list. [14:20] He's got to go through five straight days of negative COVID tests just to play in the game. [14:27] So he's sitting somewhere quarantined five straight days. [14:32] And, you know, it's tough to, what is he doing, the meetings via Zoom? [14:35] That's going to be tough. [14:37] Sammy Watkins has not played this postseason, [14:40] but I think he's going to be close to 100% here. [14:44] Well, what did he do this year? [14:46] Most people just look at what he did this year. [14:48] Okay, he's 37 receptions, 421 yards, 11.4 yards per reception. [14:54] People say, oh, okay, that's not much of an edge there. [14:58] They'll say, oh, he hasn't played in the first two postseason games, [15:00] might get lost in the shuffle, may not catch a pass. [15:03] But let me remind you, what did he do last year? [15:06] Three games played in postseason, 14 receptions, 288 yards. [15:13] He averaged 20.6 yards per reception. [15:17] 2018 postseason, two games, 10 receptions, 176 yards. [15:23] That works out to 17.6 yards per reception. [15:27] I'm going over 10.5 yards minus 115 on his first reception.”
Sammy Watkins caught his only pass of Super Bowl LV for 13 yards, so his first (and only) reception cleared the 10.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Sammy Watkins: 1 reception, 13 yards)
“The BetOnline line for this one Texas Tech minus 7 versus Oklahoma What your thoughts on this one [4:24] Oh, this should be a great game. I mean, two teams that are playing extremely well. [4:29] Both teams won their last game. Oklahoma, I mean, five wins in a row now. [4:36] Clutch, 66-61 win on Saturday over Alabama. [4:40] uh devian harman uh 18 points and elijah harkless 14 points those guys had some clutch shots and [4:48] some tough shots they hit down the stretch that was probably my favorite game to watch in college [4:53] basketball over the weekend and uh who can forget december 22nd if you watch the first game [4:59] oklahoma shot horrible and i mean turnovers i mean they did everything they could to hand [5:06] tech the game, and they did, but still we lost by two. You're getting seven points here, [5:13] two teams that, you know, really good and have confidence. I think it's too much here. [5:19] I'm taking the seven with Oklahoma. I think the wrong team is favored. [5:24] Feels like Oklahoma's just getting hot at the right time, right? Just seems like they're really [5:29] feeling themselves that they're playing some really, really good ball. You mentioned that [5:32] game versus Alabama over the weekend, Big 12 SEC Challenge. [5:35] That was a fun game, and Oklahoma's looking good. [5:37] Yeah, one of the things that I look at when I handicap college and NBA, [5:42] I hate to go against teams that are shooting extremely well. [5:46] So, you know, you can go against teams that are in certain spots, [5:50] like we did the Lakers last week, you know, fourth game in seven nights on the road, [5:55] maybe looking ahead to another game, but Oklahoma only has Iowa State dead ahead. [6:01] so they got [6:03] they got they get over a week before they play [6:05] Texas we'll take Oklahoma here plus”
57-52 — Texas Tech defeated Oklahoma 57-52 (margin 5); Oklahoma +7 covered (ESPN box score).
“line for this one Denver [6:29] minus 8 versus Detroit [6:31] and Lee, I know Detroit doesn't have a good record overall. [6:34] I'm just about guaranteeing they really don't have a very good record on the road. [6:38] Yeah, even worse. [6:40] They're 5-15 overall, but they're 1-8 on the road this year. [6:45] They started the road trip off with an embarrassing sud. [6:50] They lost to Golden State, 118-91. [6:52] They were never in the game. [6:54] If you're going to back a bad team on the road, do something. [6:58] score or share the ball well or rebound well. [7:02] Detroit, I mean, almost every single category, [7:05] they're 23rd in scoring offense, 29th in field goal percentage. [7:10] They hit only 42.9% of their shots this year. [7:13] They're 25th in rebounding, 20th in scoring defense. [7:18] The highest I could find and the most positive thing I could glean [7:23] from this bad team is their 19th in three-point shooting, [7:26] whereas Denver's won six of the last seven. [7:29] They beat Utah yesterday. [7:32] They shot 54% in that game and 64.3% from three-point land. [7:38] Like I said, I do not like to go against hot-shooting teams. [7:42] They ended Utah's 11-game winning streak. [7:44] Teams out west, it seems like, they go on these winning streaks. [7:47] The average person, even 5%, 10% of sports fans couldn't have told you [7:51] that Utah had won 11 straight. [7:53] Now, all of a sudden, Denver's won six of the last seven. [7:57] They are good on back-to-backers, 2-1. [8:00] They're also 3-1 versus Eastern Conference opponents, [8:05] and they've won by an average of almost 114-99. [8:09] I'm laying the lumber here. [8:10] Blowout special. [8:12] Denver laying the eight over Detroit and get it in early.”
The Pistons-Nuggets game scheduled for February 1, 2021 was postponed minutes before tipoff after an inconclusive COVID-19 test left Detroit without the league-required eight available players; the game never occurred, so Denver -8 voids (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. [11:10] Boston versus Washington over 5.5, minus 114. [11:14] Give me your thoughts on this one. [11:16] Okay, so I think it was about a week and a half ago, [11:18] I had mentioned that Boston's 5-on-5 shooting woes would not only end quickly, [11:24] but they would rebound robustly. [11:27] They hadn't scored a 5-on-5 goal in the first three games of the year. [11:32] Since then, they're 15th in the league in shooting percentage, [11:35] and they scored 4.2 goals per game over the last five games. [11:38] The other night, they got back superstar score, David Pasternak, and in his first game of the season, they looked a little bit rusty against the Capitals. [11:51] This is a two-game series, but that's to be expected, you know, in a season debut. [11:57] Even with the rust, the two teams put up 66 combined shots on net and hit the over five and a half with ease. [12:05] Washington enjoyed the return of Alex Overtin. [12:07] this team put up four goals [12:11] on an extremely overrated [12:14] what I think defense of Boston [12:15] his return was important for their morale [12:19] but even more important [12:21] they have that top power play unit [12:24] he might be the best power play scorer [12:28] of his generation [12:29] and also Washington's power play [12:32] converting 44% of their chances this year [12:37] which is an astronomical number. [12:40] I don't know if I've ever seen it hold up even through a quarter of the season, [12:43] but with him back I just expect at least one goal from their power play and hopefully one from Boston fifth power play here Over five and the last seven between these two in D And I think they combined for seven goals tonight [13:00] One team wins 4-3. [13:02] We're taking the over 5-1⁄2 level 2 lock.”
5-3 — Boston defeated Washington 5-3 (8 combined goals); Over 5.5 won (ESPN box score).
“And man, so we're looking at that North Texas game in Rice. That game is actually going to get played today. So I don't know what are your thoughts. We're going to run that one back today. Yeah, let's run it back. The game starts at three o'clock. So you got to get it in early and actually get an extra half point went up from seven to seven and a half points. So we'll take we'll take right there in the seven and a half points at home. Look for them to take it down to the wire. Maybe even they want it outright.”
79-74 — North Texas defeated Rice 79-74 (margin 5); Rice +7.5 covered (ESPN box score).
“betonline Line for this one Illinois Minus 2 Versus Iowa How are you feeling this game Well we going to get back to the norm here Iowa lost their last game against Indiana, 81-69 at home. Not the norm. They only shot 38.1%. But the norm for this team is they're not a great defensive team that can shoot the rock. The last three games before that horrible outing at home, shot 57, 53, and 55%. So the average shooting, you know, in the mid-50s, they shot 38%. I think they bounced back here. They're also 8-3 against the spread the last 11 games versus teams with a winning percentage above 60%. And Illinois, they like to play free and easy. They're very athletic. But I just don't think they're coached that well. They have some bad home losses to Maryland and Ohio State the last two games. And Iowa's, I think, even better here. Illinois just can't beat the elite teams here. We'll go with Iowa here. Wrong team's favorite, plus a two. Winner, straight up.”
80-75 — Illinois defeated Iowa 80-75 (margin 5); Iowa +2 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“The Raptors minus five and a half versus the Kings. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, and Sacramento is a team. They win against Orlando Wednesday night. Usually good things don't happen in punches for this team. I just don't think they have good leadership. A team 7-10, I think they're going to be even worse as the season progresses. And on the other side, Toronto 7-11, they're going to start on a winning streak here, and I think it starts this game after losing two in a row to some really good teams that were playing well, Indiana and Milwaukee. So Toronto is 5-4 at home. They're playing this year in Tampa. They started 2-8. They're starting to get their footing here, but they always dust off Sacramento. They've already beat them this year in Sacramento since 2017. They're 5-1-1 against the spread. If it comes down to free throws late, they shoot over 80% of their free throws. Sacramento just 71%. So you get a team here, Toronto, that's solid. You know, just one of these things. They've started slow, like Miami. They'll come back in a week or two. You'll say, oh, they won seven and eight. How did that happen? Whereas Sacramento, yeah, they get a nice offense, 10th in offense, but 29th in the NBA in points allowed, last in field goal percentage, and also three-point percentage. Let's go with Toronto here. they're going to just blow Sacramento off the court here. It'll be over early. Toronto minus five and a half blowout special here. Easy winner. You know, it's so funny. I feel like the Kings have been on the wrong end of these blowout specials quite a bit lately. They're just not a very good team. If you back the Kings over the last like 15, 20 years, I mean, you're living under the bridge. Absolutely. Absolutely right. As a Bay Area native, I kind of look down the highway, look down the road, and I'm like, yeah, they're not very good. No. I know that's right. So great stuff. Coaching changes, players, you know. They get a lot of guys that like to run up and down the court, shoot. They care a lot of times more about their scoring percentage. And trust me, these guys are there. They're in Sacramento for a reason. There's a reason they're there and not with a team like Boston, Toronto, winning teams.”
126-124 — Sacramento defeated Toronto 126-124; Toronto -5.5 lost outright and did not cover (ESPN box score).
“Got Texas state. They're 11 and four on the season. They're playing at home versus Louisiana Lafayette, who, by the way, they're 11 and four on the season as well. Very competitive game. It looks like on paper, the bed online dot AG line for this one, Texas state minus three and a half versus Louisiana Lafayette. Thoughts on this one? So, I don't know if we talked about this, but Texas State is my alma mater. Actually, when I went there, it was called Southwest Texas State. Nice. So, know this team well. So, they lost their leading score from last year. And almost everyone else returned. And it took them a while to gain their footing. But, boy, they gained their footing. They're leading the conference. Right now, the Sunbelt Conference at 5-1. Straight up. They are 7-1 against the spread the last eight Friday night games. I don't know what it is about Friday nights, but they seem to perform at their best. And Lafayette's a good home team. And actually, these two teams split earlier in the year at Louisiana Lafayette. Louisiana Lafayette won the first game. And then Texas State waxed them in the second game. They made the adjustments. So I think they have, and I watched that game, Louisiana Lafayette's number. Lafayette is not a good road team. Much better at home on the road. Two and five against the spread the last seven road games. level two lock here. We're going with my alma mater, Texas State Bog Pats here over Louisiana Lafayette, the Raging Cajuns.”
62-60 — Louisiana defeated Texas State 62-60; Texas State -3.5 lost outright (ESPN box score).
“Exactly right. Exactly right. I like that. Level two lock right there. And since it is a magical Friday night, why don't you go ahead and give me one more? Let's turn our attention to hockey, man. We've been doing really well as far as hockey goes. Columbus, 3-2-3 on the season. They're playing the Blackhawks. They're 2-3-3 on the season. The betonline.ag line for this one, Columbus, minus 119. That's the money line versus the Blackhawks. How are you feeling this one? I feel great. Now, this is a simple way to handicap these two teams. Records are similar, but they couldn't be any more dissimilar. This Chicago team is an underdog at home. Why? For a reason. They're two wins, both against the worst team, in my opinion, in the NHL, the Detroit Red Wings. They been outshot here in the last two games 81 And so when you continue to get outshot you going to lose games in the last two games 81 50 and so uh when when you continue to get out shot you gonna lose games uh in the nhl here easy winner here uh give me one more columbus uh minus the 119 here money line over the chicago blackhawks”
2-1 — Columbus defeated Chicago 2-1; Columbus moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“Tom Brady, over under 39 pass attempts in the Super Bowl, 55 in Tampa Bay. What are your thoughts on that? Okay, so we're going to go with the under. In the first game, he threw the ball 41 times. They played this year in Week 12. And Kansas City jumped to an early lead. It was 17-0, I mean, before you could snap your fingers, before the end of the first quarter. And in that game, Tampa Bay only ran the ball 13 times the entire game and threw the ball 41 times. They know they need balance. You look at their wins pretty much for the entire year. How did they perform best? When they threw between 29 and 35 passes. They're playing at home. I think they're going to try to establish the running game. I don't think Kansas City is going to jump out to a 17-0 lead here. We're going under 39.5 total passes for Tom Brady.”
Tom Brady completed 21 of 29 pass attempts in Super Bowl LV; Under 39.5 pass attempts won (ESPN box score). (Tom Brady: 21/29, 29 pass attempts)
“bet online AG line for this. Las Vegas, minus 135. That's the money line versus St. Louis. What's your thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so I don't know if you remember this. A couple nights ago, we took St. Louis. Yeah, we sure did. Now we're going to come back. Yeah, on the other side here. And what we're going to do is we're going to take the Las Vegas Knights here. Now, the Golden Knights are a team that they put a lot of pressure on the net. And sometimes, you know, well, a lot of times they win. And sometimes just the shots don't go in. So we faded them the other night. We're following them tonight. They dominated the game against the Blues the other night. But as I told everyone, St. Louis' goaltending came in handy. And now the Golden Knights, they're 4-1-1 when out shooting their opponents with a 13-3 goal differential in the third. So when a home team loses a game like that, I usually follow them the next game. They've now trailed or been tied in six of the seven games going into the third period. So here's my thinking. I think their head coach said something to them today at the skate around in the morning and said, hey, let's get off to an early start here. We taking Las Vegas here in the second game of this two series here at home Moneyline minus 135 blowout special Boom I like it right there”
The Jan 28, 2021 Vegas-St. Louis game was postponed after a Golden Knights player/coach entered NHL COVID-19 protocol; no game was played (NHL.com).
“betonline.ag line for this one. USC minus 12 versus Oregon State. What's your thoughts on this one? Where are you going with it? Okay, first off, got to know the time the game starts. Starts at 5 o'clock Eastern, so you got to get in on this game early. You don't want to think, oh, it's a later game because it's a Pac-12 game. Probably Oregon State's getting on a plane heading home after the game. So what you want to do here is you want to look at Oregon State. Why? They already beat USC. A lot of people didn't notice that, but Oregon State, they did not start off well. I mean, they had a horrible start off to the season. I mean, after beating Cal and a school called Northwest College, never heard of them. Then they lost to Washington State, Wyoming, Portland, won a few games against nobody, had a few games postponed. And then what have they done the last three games? They've won three straight. So just like our play last night with Wake Forest, a team that's starting to come on, Oregon State starting to come on, they had a lot of turnover program, new head coach, you know. So they're getting things straightened out, whereas USC, hey, they're playing good basketball, 12-3, and they did lose by two points just a week ago to Oregon State. So people are thinking, yeah, they're going to come back at home and wax them. Not the case. They only shot six of 20 from three-point land in that game here. I think it going to be a low game and I think Oregon State covers here the 12 spread Level one lock Oregon State Beavers”
USC 75, Oregon State 62 — USC defeated Oregon State 75-62 on Jan 28, 2021, a 13-point win that broke Oregon State's +12 cover (ESPN box score).
“bet online AG line for this one. North Carolina State, minus eight. Again, at home versus Wake Forest. How are you feeling this one? Oh, I feel real good. So here's the situation. I watch a lot of ACC basketball being based out of Miami. So all the games are on TV. Watch the commentary. know the coaches well, and if you study the coaches and the programs, so North Carolina State third-year head coach Kevin Keats, here's a guy that came from North Carolina, Wilmington. He was head coach there for three years, did a nice job before that, was at Louisville, but kind of taken over his predecessors. And what I mean by that is they get up for the big games and they upset one or two teams every year but they usually can follow up on it And their biggest rival North Carolina It's like, you know, they're the little, they're the stepson. Right. And they try to beat North Carolina. If it doesn't happen, next couple games, they're in a funk. If they do, sometimes they're in a funk anyway because they're pointing towards that game. They lost on Saturday to North Carolina, 86-76. On the other side, Wake Forest, they made a change. Danny Manning, who not very good at all. I saw a couple of their games actually last year. Had talent. I just think they underachieved. And Danny Manning, not a good game coach. And my daughter actually goes to school in Winston-Salem. So I saw a couple of home games and watched his rotations. I think Steve Forbes, their new head coach, doing a really nice job. Here's a guy, 216-77 career record as a head coach. That's over 72% winning percentage. He led East Tennessee State for six years, did a great job. Before that, had really good sound programs under solid head coaches at Wichita State and Tennessee. And they finally won a game in conference. They beat Pitt last game. And I think that's going to get them over the hump. A young team, you know, new head coach, it's tough to win that first game. And they usually go on from there. And also a key factor in this game is the tempo. North Carolina State likes to shoot threes, likes to go up tempo. Wake Forest, not so much. So you need two teams sometimes to create tempo. And if you're laying close to double digits, you better have fast tempo or shoot extremely well, and it's tough to do both. I think Wake Forest here slows it down a little bit here. I'm going to think Wake Forest plus the eight, wrong team favorite. They might take this game down to the wire and may even win the game outright.”
NC State 72, Wake Forest 67 — The Wake Forest-NC State game was actually played on Jan 27, 2021 (not canceled); NC State won 72-67, a 5-point margin that Wake Forest's +8 covers (ESPN box score).
“Boise State minus three versus Colorado State. And one, I'm really kind of surprised, Lee, Boise State at 13-1 is not ranked. But, well, here we are. They're not ranked. But what are your thoughts? Again, the betonline.ag line for this one, Boise State minus three at Colorado State. I was thinking the same thing, Q. I mean, here's a team 13-1. They lost their first game to Houston. Just didn't play well. Didn't shoot well. Just one of those things. But since that time, they're blowing out everyone. And even two games last week, they played Wyoming, which is playing extremely well. not a ranked team by any stretch of the imagination, but they blew out Wyoming on the road by 20 and 23 points. Now they go on the road again and play Colorado State, who's 11-3, and playing well. But they go Colorado State, the Rams do, as does guard sophomore Isaiah Stevens. He has to not only shoot well, and he's shooting 47.3% from three-point land. That's pretty tough to keep up, and he averages 6.2 assists per game. So he's got to distribute the ball well. He's got to shoot extremely well. And I think he's going to have a tough time here against a really good defensive team, ranked 16th in the nation, as is Boise State, allowing just 61.1 points per game. And they also score over 81 points per game here. I think Boise State, the reason they're not ranked is on the West Coast. Most people don't watch them on TV. They don't get the exposure. I'm thinking Boise State. I laying three on the road blowout special Boise State over Colorado State”
Colorado State 78, Boise State 56 — Colorado State defeated Boise State 78-56 on Jan 27, 2021, a 22-point win that broke Boise State's -3 cover (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for this one, Boise State minus three at Colorado State. I was thinking the same thing, Q. I mean, here's a team 13-1. They lost their first game to Houston. Just didn't play well. Didn't shoot well. Just one of those things. But since that time, they're blowing out everyone. And even two games last week, they played Wyoming, which is playing extremely well. not a ranked team by any stretch of the imagination, but they blew out Wyoming on the road by 20 and 23 points. Now they go on the road again and play Colorado State, who's 11-3, and playing well. But they go Colorado State, the Rams do, as does guard sophomore Isaiah Stevens. He has to not only shoot well, and he's shooting 47.3% from three-point land. That's pretty tough to keep up, and he averages 6.2 assists per game. So he's got to distribute the ball well. He's got to shoot extremely well. And I think he's going to have a tough time here against a really good defensive team, ranked 16th in the nation, as is Boise State, allowing just 61.1 points per game. And they also score over 81 points per game here. I think Boise State, the reason they're not ranked is on the West Coast. Most people don't watch them on TV. They don't get the exposure. I'm thinking Boise State. I laying three on the road blowout special Boise State over Colorado State Boom there it is right there and I think you bring up a heck of a point We see that in college football as well Those West Coast teams just don get the same burn and the same attention as the SEC, ACC, and others. All right, coming up next, we've got the lock of the day. Going to talk some NBA action. Got a big-time game. Very excited about it. Before we get into it, though, we do want to tell you about one of the great sponsors here on Locked On Bets, something that myself and Lee Sterling really do appreciate a lot and that is built bar the great tasting protein bar they're great for the health conscious man or woman they'll help you lose or maintain weight while you're enjoying a delicious treat they're low calorie low sugar high protein high fiber and they're great for the keto diet and lee as we very well know really good flavors 18 amazing flavors oh and and i went to with the chocolate coconut last night so i love mounds growing up as a kid and put one in the fridge for about 30 minutes and was chomping away as I was watching that Dayton outright winner over St. Louis last night. So love my late night built bar, usually the second half of the second game I'm watching. And nice finish. So it's like I'm having luck with those late night games in the built bar, so I'm going to keep it up. There you go. Hey, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. You know what I mean? Keep rolling. I'll tell you what, man. Banana bread, salted caramel, toffee almond. I haven't tried the banana bread yet. I just ordered it. Oh, man. I'm telling you. You got to tell me about it when you do try it. It's outstanding. I kind of questioned it at first, and I did not question it after the first bite. So definitely, definitely let me know once you get that one. But, again, the bars are covered 100% in chocolate. They're soft. They're easy to chew. I like to put mine in the fridge for a little bit, give it a little bit of a chill, but you don't have to. Either way, go to the website, BuiltBar.com. promo code LOCKEDON you're going to get 20% off your order again BuiltBar.com promo code LOCKEDON will get you 20% off your order so not only are you getting a great taste of protein bar something that's good for you but you're also going to save money at the same time so definitely going to hook you up BuiltBar.com Open it, open it, open it Lee has the key to the lock of the day Alright Lee here we go Lock of the day my favorite time of day Got a big-time game in the NBA. The 14-4 Lakers undefeated on the road this season. On the road, going up against Philly at 12-6. The bet on line, A-G line for this one, the Lakers. Minus 3.5 versus the 76ers. Give it to me. What are you thinking? Okay, so we rode the Lakers last week and took them in the first game of the road trip. But now, fourth game in seven days. And with all the protocols, I just think it's tough. to win that fourth and fifth game on the road. I know they won 10 straight on the road, but I think Philadelphia is one of those rare teams that has the size that can defend the Lakers. Not too many teams can do it. And I just think Philly was bored. They played a back-to-back road game against Detroit, won the first, second game, just kind of looked bored. I think they'll be motivated here. I'm taking the three-and-a-half at home. This will be a level two lock for me. the Philadelphia Sixers and the 10-0 straight-up road record that the LA Lakers have this year.”
Philadelphia 107, LA Lakers 106 — Philadelphia defeated the Lakers 107-106 on Jan 27, 2021; the 76ers +3.5 pick wins outright (ESPN box score).
“okay so we're setting the super bowl props at betonline.com here's one i like a lot tampa bay's linebacker devin white think he's great plays great i like to play players after a great game, the championship game, to go under, whether it's an offensive total for the next game, you know, people see what they see last is usually what they wager on. And he had a great game. I'm going to play him under nine and a half tackles and assists. Why? He's got to play great. He's going to have to be roaming the field and Kansas city spreads you out a little bit more than green Bay and a little bit better off that he's going to have to face. And, you know, he's going to have to play extremely well in the tempo. And also, you know, he's going to have to make plays not only in the run game, also all over the field. And just think, I don't think he's going to put his hands on people like Kelsey too often and also a wide receiver. So we'll play under nine and a half total tackles and assists plus 100.”
Devin White recorded 12 combined tackles (8 solo, 4 assisted) in Super Bowl LV, over the 9.5 line (ESPN box score). (Devin White: 12 combined tackles (8 solo, 4 assist))
“betonline.ag line for this one. St. Louis, minus 9 versus Dayton. Thoughts on this one? Yeah, and here's a game St. Louis hasn't played since December 23rd. They do have some nice wins on their resume, wins over LSU and NC State. But Dayton getting 9 points here. They beat Mississippi State and Mississippi in December. Their last two games, George Washington was postponed, Virginia Commonwealth, their worst loss of the year by far. They lost 66-43 in that game. They shot just 31% from the field and 15%, 3-for-20 from three-point lane, just not the way they usually perform here. You know, people know Dayton because Obi Toppin last year, one of the most exciting college basketball players we saw in many recent years. But this year kind of been under the radar. They're 8-4. I think they bounce back here in a conference game here. I think they take this game down to the wire. Wouldn't shock me if they even win the game outright at St. Louis. I'll take the nine points every day of the week.”
Dayton 76, Saint Louis 71 — Dayton defeated Saint Louis 76-71 outright on Jan 26, 2021, covering the +9 spread (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for this one. St. Louis, minus 9 versus Dayton. Thoughts on this one? Yeah, and here's a game St. Louis hasn't played since December 23rd. They do have some nice wins on their resume, wins over LSU and NC State. But Dayton getting 9 points here. They beat Mississippi State and Mississippi in December. Their last two games, George Washington was postponed, Virginia Commonwealth, their worst loss of the year by far. They lost 66-43 in that game. They shot just 31% from the field and 15%, 3-for-20 from three-point lane, just not the way they usually perform here. You know, people know Dayton because Obi Toppin last year, one of the most exciting college basketball players we saw in many recent years. But this year kind of been under the radar. They're 8-4. I think they bounce back here in a conference game here. I think they take this game down to the wire. Wouldn't shock me if they even win the game outright at St. Louis. I'll take the nine points every day of the week. Boom, there it is right there. WTF wrong team favored. Lee Sterling's going with the nine points in Dayton. I like that one. Like that one a lot. That's a good way to get things started off today. Oh, boy. Last one out. Turn off the lights. This one's a blowout. Next up, we got the blowout special. Another college hoops game, and it's a really, really good, exciting one, man. The fifth-ranked Texas Longhorns, they're 11-2 on the season. At home, hosting 24th-ranked Oklahoma, who's 9-4, who can light it up. Bet on line, AG line for this one. Texas minus four versus Oklahoma alright give me your thoughts on this one Lee ok so big showdown here Texas I don't think anyone thought that they were going to end up ranked fifth in the country but they come on they won seven the last eight they will have no Shaka Smart He out with COVID tonight their head coach But Texas 12 straight up the last 15 games at home versus Oklahoma And why are they an elite team this year? Andrew Jones, point guard. Just seven for 33 in the first six games, 21% from the field from three-point land. But the last six games, he's playing in an elite level, 20 for 42 from three-point land over almost 48%. And what that does is they have three guys that can really drive the ball to the basket. It opens up everything. Oklahoma, they have won three in a row, playing their best basketball, beating TCU, Kansas State, and Kansas in a row. But three and nine straight up the last 12 games on the road. Not one of these real good road teams. And also really poor perimeter defense. It's 283rd. They're ranked out of 340 Division I teams. We're going to take Texas. We're going to lay the four points here. Blowout special here. Texas Longhorns over Oklahoma.”
Oklahoma 80, Texas 79 — Oklahoma defeated Texas 80-79 on Jan 26, 2021; Texas lost outright, so Texas -4 lost (ESPN box score).
“New York Islanders, minus 133 money line at Washington. How are you feeling this one? Okay, so we took the night off the ice last night. There was only one game, so you've got to be patient. Found one really strong game on the ice here. The Islanders, they had an ugly loss in their last game against lowly New Jersey. They're now 3-2 on the year, but both losses have been with their backup goaltender in net. Their starter, back in net tonight, and he's 3-0. How about this with a .988 save percent? That's almost a 99% save percentage. That's number one in the NHL. Now they get the Washington Capitals on the road who are still without their star players. Three-star guys are out. Washington has played four straight games that went to overtime or shootout, all against inferior teams here. And the Islanders, trust me, are not an inferior team like Buffalo and Pittsburgh were. In five games, they've only allowed eight goals, and seven of those were against the backup here. The Islanders, big here. Don't be surprised if they win this game 4-1 or 5-1 here. We'll lay the money line, minus 133.”
Washington 3, NY Islanders 2 — Washington defeated the NY Islanders 3-2 on Jan 26, 2021; the Islanders moneyline pick loses (ESPN box score).
“The total on the game is 143 against SIU Edwardsville. So looking at this game, and I'm saying, wow, Edwardsville's only played nine games. Eastern Illinois, you know, up and down. They need to get back on a roll here. But here's what's crazy is when these two teams play usually high-scoring games, and in the last 51 games Eastern Illinois has played at home, they're 37-14 to the over at home. So without a crowd, I think these two teams will just run around and score. Total's 143.”
SIU Edwardsville 87, Eastern Illinois 74 — SIU Edwardsville defeated Eastern Illinois 87-74 on Jan 26, 2021; the 161 combined points cleared the 143 total (CBS Sports recap).
“betonline.ag line for this one. Arizona, minus 4-1, half versus Arizona State. What are your thoughts on this one? Okay, so when I first looked at this line, and what I do is I have a power rating for every team. And I also add home court, even though it's been a lot tougher this year to figure out home court advantage. I rate my home court advantages from three to six points. And this year, I think it's worth more in the range of one to three points. But Arizona State is a team where a lot of people had some pretty high hopes. They thought that they could maybe get to the tournament. But, boy, have they been derailed since December 16th. And they've had some games postponed. They've had four postponed. But they've lost five straight. They lost to UTEP. And then they lost to UCLA, USC, Oregon State, and Arizona. Last two games by a combined three points. Never blown out in any of these games. But I think they're getting close. And this is one thing I look at when I handicap. If the line looks wrong, you bet the team where the line looks like they have no chance. We just look at the line. And Arizona beat Arizona State at Arizona State in the last game by two points. You know, they're 11-3. You're saying, why are they only favored by four and a half points at home? It's a trap. So don't fall for the trap here. I also noticed Arizona watching them. Their defense really poor, allowing 80 points per game in four of the last five games. or without one of their key players. I think he's kind of the glue to the team. Jamari Baker Jr. averaging 12 points per game. The line is wrong. Don't fall for the trap. Wrong team's favorite. Arizona State plus four and a half outright.”
Arizona 80, Arizona State 67 — Arizona defeated Arizona State 80-67 on Jan 25, 2021, a 13-point win that broke the +4.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Denver minus 1.5 versus the Mavs. How are you feeling this one? Well, both teams are trying to get to the next level. They have two MVP frontrunners here in Luka Donnik and also Nikolaj Djokic. And it's going to be fun. In the last game when they played two and a half weeks ago both players scored 38 points The Mavs won in overtime So it should be another barn burner here Not much defense play but the difference in this game is Dallas is without four key players Dwight Powell Maxie Cleaver, Josh Richardson, and Dorian Vinny Smith are both all four guys are out due to COVID protocols here and uh here's here's some strange numbers I mean makes absolutely no sense but maybe it does want the more you look at it here the Mavs just four and 11 against the spread the The last 15 home games versus teams with a winning road record. Nuggets, 4-0 against the spread the last four when their opponents allow 100 points or more in their previous game here. Denver's one of these teams. Seems like they beat the bad teams when they come up against the elite teams. Just fall short here. Blowout special even on the road. Let's go with the Denver Nuggets laying the one and a half.”
Denver 117, Dallas 113 — Denver defeated Dallas 117-113 on Jan 25, 2021, a 4-point win that covered the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. West Virginia's minus 1.5 versus Tech. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? Okay, so two teams trying to get to the next level, probably trying to secure a number two or three seed in the NCAA tournament. And Tech is ranked 12th. West Virginia is ranked 14th. And what they do is they'll win a couple games and lose a big game. Tech, they lost to Baylor after winning three straight. West Virginia, they had lost to Tech. Texas came back and beat Kansas State in their last game 69-47. So what it looks like they're going to do, I don't think they're on the level of a Kansas consistently or even especially a Baylor. So they're going to have to win most of the rest of their games except for maybe, you know, one or two other conference games if they want to get that number two or three seed. But, you know, here's something. Sometimes you have to look at the series and how certain teams play at home or away. So West Virginia, 25-9 against the spread. the last 34 home games here when the road team they're playing has a winning record. So surprisingly, they do well against good teams at home. Also, home team is 4-1 against the spread in the series. And also West Virginia's fared really well last seven games in the series against Tech, 5-2 against the spread. And Tech, you know, just not good against teams with plus 60% winning percentage. Just 1-7 against the spread the last eight games in that situation here. So I think West Virginia will protect the home court here. I'm going to lay the 1.5. Lee's level one lock here. West Virginia at home over Texas Tech.”
West Virginia 88, Texas Tech 87 — West Virginia defeated Texas Tech 88-87 on Jan 25, 2021, a 1-point win that missed the -1.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for this one 76 76ers minus four and a half verse Boston how you feeling this one good so here's here's the storyline for this game so these two teams recently played each other and in that game which was played just two days ago what happened was Boston lost they dropped a 117 game But you got to dig deeper into the storylines What happened was a kid named Shake Milton. You familiar with Shake Milton for Philadelphia? Yep, absolutely. Third-year pro at SMU. Coming on, seemed to be playing better. But he had a huge game. In fact, the last three games, Shake has averaged 25 points per game. So he's gone from averaging like three and four points a game his first two years to averaging 16 points per game. But I think averaging 25 points per game, I don't think he's going to keep that up. So then Joel Embiid went off. Scores 42 points in the last game. Boston is one of those teams that sometimes really tough to figure out, but I like to play them as an underdog. They're deadly as an underdog. The public's going to play Philadelphia, I believe. We hear the line's four and a half. They're playing at home. As we know, we've seen these NBA games. No real home court advantage. No Jason Tatum, but Kemba Walker's back. And they had a meeting. And what was the basis of the meeting? How do they guard Joel Embiid? So I think they're focused. They are well coached, better coached than the Philadelphia 76ers team. And just think that this is going to be a game decided by maybe one possession or Boston wins it outright. We've been knocking them dead with the long-team favorite. Long-team favorite here, Boston, plus 4.5. I think they're going to win the game outright against the Philadelphia 76ers.”
Philadelphia 122, Boston 110 — Philadelphia defeated Boston 122-110 on Jan 22, 2021, a 12-point Celtics loss that missed the +4.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for this one. Coastal Carolina, minus 11 versus Troy. Thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, so I don't know if you remember. I think these two teams played in the last regular season game. They squared off from football in what was Coastal Carolina's dream season until they lost in the ball game. But here's a game where you get a team that can score. Coastal Carolina is averaging 87 points per game and had the second worst output of the season last game against Georgia State. For some reason, they can't beat Georgia State. They've lost to Georgia State 70-62 and 71-68. Other than that, this team scores. I mean, they've had some games where they scored 113, 103 against Greensboro, who's not bad, and 117 points. So this is a team that can score, and if you want to lay double digits, if you're ever going to do that, you've got to be able to score, in my opinion. And Troy on the road is horrible. I mean, this is a team that, I mean, their only wins, check out some of their wins against North Alabama. I never heard of this school. Central Baptist, never heard of this school. I didn't know they played basketball. Samford and Carver Bible College. So, I mean, the list goes on and on. It's scary. I mean, they can't beat anyone. They can't score. I mean, they've had some games where they have trouble getting into the 60s. So just think of one of these cases. Sometimes you've got to lay it if you want to play it. Blowout special, Coastal Carolina tonight. Lay the 11. I think they double the point spread. They beat Troy here by 20 to 25 points.”
Coastal Carolina 90, Troy 81 — Coastal Carolina defeated Troy 90-81 on Jan 22, 2021, a 9-point win that fell short of covering -11 (ESPN box score).
“The Packers minus three, minus 125 versus the Buccaneers. Give us the knowledge, man. Give us your information we need to know. Okay, so if the game was played in Tampa, the interest on a scale of one to ten would be like a nine for me. But being played in Lambeau and being cold and these two quarterbacks, which have fared extremely well, you know, in big games and look at their careers. I mean, these are first ballot Hall of Famers. I mean, they might end up getting every single vote. I mean, you don't even think twice about these two guys. Game's being played in Lambeau. And although Tom Brady has fared really well in New England in home games, you know, cold weather, you know, playoff and championship games, I don't know if his teammates are going to be up to this. And it could be accumulation here of the weather, high of 29, low of 20, probably about a 40%, 45% chance of snow during the game. and we know Aaron Rodgers, I think he's the best cold-weather quarterback I've ever seen in my life. So it seems like he plays better when it's cold or snowing than a regular game. I don't know what it is, so I've never been able to figure it out. When I tried to play, when it's 40, 45 degrees, I can't throw the football. But that being the case here, I think his teammates might have trouble because they're not used to it. And Green Bay is looking for revenge. It started off real strong. I think they were up 10-0 in that game against Tampa, and that was clearly Aaron Rodgers' worst game. So, you know, he'll be studying film. I mean, he missed some coverages. They had a couple inverted, two-deep coverages here and just missed the coverage and misread it. And I think he's going to look to get back on track here, and I think he will. And I think the Bucs defense played about as hard as they could play last week, and they took advantage of Drew Brees' lack of arm strength in the second half. So I think it's tough to play with that level of intensity two weeks in a row, as did the Bucs did. So, hey, give them credit. They won two straight games on the road. Now they've got to face a team, the Packers' offense. They just dissected the fearsome Rams defense, and they scored on five drives. First five drives here, three touchdowns, two field goals here. I think Green Bay's going to the Super Bowl in Tampa, 34-24. Boom. There it is. Lee Sterling is filling the Green Bay Packers.”
Tampa Bay 31, Green Bay 26 — Tampa Bay defeated Green Bay 31-26 in the NFC Championship on Jan 24, 2021; the Packers moneyline pick loses (ESPN box score).
“It's sitting at like 54.5 right now.”
Kansas City 38, Buffalo 24 — Kansas City defeated Buffalo 38-24 in the AFC Championship on Jan 24, 2021; the 62 combined points cleared the 54.5 total (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to back up the truck and give you the co-main event. Dan Hangman Hooker, minus 135 over Michael Iron Chandler.”
Michael Chandler defeated Dan Hooker by TKO at 2:30 of Round 1 in the UFC 257 co-main event on Jan 23, 2021; the Hooker moneyline pick loses (ESPN).
“The BetOnline.ag line for this one. Bucs minus one versus L.A. How are you feeling this one? I feel great. I mean, look at this. Milwaukee looks like two similar records, 9-5, Lakers 11-4. But nothing could be further than the truth. The Lakers were actually 9-0 on the road. Sounds crazy. Why aren't they better at home? But sometimes these veteran teams, they lead their lives. And once they come together on these plane trips, they're pretty much stuck in hotels or they can only go to certain restaurants. They're given a list of restaurants in the area where they're staying, where they're allowed to go to. So they go out in groups, and I think there's a bonding thing that goes on here. It's a veteran team. So I also love the Lakers here. After blowing, they were leading Golden State going into the fourth quarter by 11 points. You don't see a veteran championship team below an 11-point lead going into the fourth quarter too often. And so Anthony Davis was very outspoken after that game. He was upset the way they blew the game. Bucs just four and nine against the spread the last 13 times versus a team with a winning record. They beat up on all the sisters of the poor, but you pit them against, you know, the elite. They just can't get the job done here. Also, number one defense. So Lakers are one of the top offenses, but number one defense. That's how you win championships. Just like in football. Everyone talks about all these great teams, great offenses. How did Kansas City win last year the Super Bowl? Second half, shut down their opponent, San Francisco, in the second half. So, number one, defense allowing just 41.9% field goal percentage on the road. Yeah, I like Drew Holloway for Milwaukee. He coming into his own becoming more acclimated with Milwaukee 15 points per game they have the number two offense but like said Lakers Lakers just too well offense and defensively I going to take the one point here long team favorite here”
LA Lakers 113, Milwaukee 106 — LA Lakers defeated Milwaukee 113-106 on Jan 21, 2021; the Lakers' +1 pick wins outright (ESPN box score).
“bet online AG line for this one. UCLA, minus nine, again, playing at Cal. What are your thoughts on this one? Another great road team. I mean, UCLA, 7-2 against the spread the last nine road games here. Cal, okay, you're looking at the last game, you see they beat Utah, but Utah just was absolutely dreadful at home, and that game scored only 63 points. Cal's been without their leading scorer, Matt Bradley, with a high ankle sprain the last four games. And how important is Matt Bradley to Cal's team? Well, he's only averaging 17.8 points per game and 4.7 rebounds per game. This is from a guard. And the next three highest scores all average 10 points per game. It's pretty tough to ask two of the three 10-point-per-game scores to average 15 to 20 in a game against a really quality opponent here. Blowout special. This game will be over by halftime. UCLA, 11-2 moves to 12-2. Easy here. They win by double digits over Cal.”
UCLA 61, California 57 — UCLA defeated California 61-57 on Jan 21, 2021, winning outright to cover the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for this one. The Bruins versus Philadelphia. The money line is minus 134. What's your thoughts on this one? Okay, starts and goal when you look at hockey. The Bruins, looks like they're going to go back to Karask. He has a career. How about this record? 15-2-4 career record against Philadelphia. He's going to be going up against the other goaltender for Philadelphia, will be Carter Hart. Just an 888 career save percentage on the road, which is not very good. And he hasn't played a game since last March, so it'll be his first start. And this just feels like a get-right game here for the Boston Bruins tonight. How about this? They have a 0.00 shooting percentage at five versus five in their first three games of the year. They literally have not scored a goal five on five yet in 2021. They averaged three, like I think it's 3.24 goals per game last year, good for ninth in the NHL. They're averaging the 13th best expected goals per game this year in the NHL, but they're just getting nothing to show for it. So it's largely due to they face three really good outstanding goaltenders. Now they get to face the Philadelphia Flyers teams. It's in off a shutout victory, playing their first road game of the year. And the Flyers are allowing the seventh highest expected goals per game in the league thus far and the seventh most high danger chances per game. Level three lock here. Boston Bruins money line minus 134 over the Philadelphia Flyers.”
Boston Bruins 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 — Boston Bruins defeated Philadelphia 5-4 on Jan 21, 2021, winning the moneyline outright (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for this game Furman minus 11 at Virginia military. What are your thoughts on this one, Lee? Yeah, that was a great game. In fact, I watched that game and even watched the end of it. They had them. I mean, they went to Alabama. I think they led the entire game until maybe the last minute of the game. Lost the game 83-80. Just thought that they maybe should slow the game down in that game, but didn't. Also played Cincinnati tough. Lost by five at Cincinnati, but almost everyone else except for Winthrop, they lost that game. They have just dismantled. So this is a really strong team. They score points, but now they're going to be going on the road. And Furman, one in four, last five road games against the spread. Whereas VMI, even though Virginia military cadets are seven and seven, really good home team. Five and O against the spread the last five home games I just thought I watched their last game against East Tennessee State They played East Tennessee State on the road and East Tennessee State was reigning threes So of the top six guys for East Tennessee State that took at least two three-pointers or more, five of the six were above 50% shooting three-pointers. I mean, they had guys, the worst guy went three and seven, three for seven. And so it wasn't like he was terrible. So we're talking about two for two, two for three, three for six, five for ten. I mean, it goes on and on. So I just think it was one of those games here. I just think that home court is a big advantage here. And I'm going to take the cadets here, like I said, plus 11 points. I think this game goes right down to the wire. Maybe like Florida. They maybe win the game outright like the Florida Gators last night took down Tennessee. So, going to take the generous double-digit points here in VMI, the cadets, and think they're going to get firm in a battle.”
VMI 74, Furman 73 — VMI beat Furman 74-73 outright, covering +11 (ESPN recap).
“the bet online ag line for this one the clippers minus 10 and a half versus the kings to me lee seems a little bit low what are your thoughts yeah i thought i put the line at about 12 12 and a half but i think this line's going up i mean i think you want to get on this game here as early as possible so they played on friday night And what happened in that game? The Clippers won 138-100. That's right. They won by 38 points in Sacramento. So now they play again here in the Staples Center. And I'm watching this Sacramento team. They started off strong. You know, well, 500 is strong for Sacramento. They're a bottom feeder. And why are they a bottom feeder? It starts at the top. Head coach Luke Walton. Don't think he's a good head coach. Alvin Gentry. I think he's just playing out the string, coaching out the string here. He was last with New Orleans. But I see a rudderless team. I see a team that doesn't have really any leadership at all. You look at all the players. Marvin Bagley, he's too young. Harrison Barnes, he's one of these guys, the third option. He's not a vocal leader. De'Aaron Fox, nah. Kyle Guy, too young. I think he might have my pedigree to be a leader, but, you know, you've got to be a one, two, or three on the team. He's not the guy. I mean, the list goes on and on. Buddy Held, Corey Joseph, Glenn Robinson III, Jabari Parker, and then the worst guy, Hassan Whiteside. Total cut-up. Wherever he goes with the heat, he took them down. He goes to Portland, doesn't do anything. And just don't think they have serious guys. I don't think they play defense. All of a sudden, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, not a great team defensively, but they're the second-best team offensively. When they need to stop with Leonard and George, they're coming up with it. We're seeing a really mature Paul George. He realizes he made a mistake in the bubble. He was not locked in. He is now. This team here for the Kings, the worst, dead worst defensive club in the NBA. a little out special again late at 10 and a half this game will be over early um you'll be eating popcorn or a bill bar by the second half early in the second half clippers big over sacramento”
LA Clippers 115, Sacramento 96 — Clippers beat Kings 115-96, covering -10.5 by a 19-point margin (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Laziz, minus 235 over Worley. What are your thoughts here? So this is the way I'm going to look at this fight here. And we study it. We watch at least three or four fights when we're watching UFC, me and my staff. and we like to watch a fight where they have their best effort. We like to watch a fight against an opponent that probably comes down to a decision with a real challenge. And then we like to watch a fight where everything goes wrong. And we think we spotted something here. So the sniper, Laziz, this guy is just really impressive on his feet. We don't think Alvis is going to take him down. I think Alvis is up and down, lost his last fight to Randy Brown. He looked awful. don't think his cardio was good really doesn't have a good win on his resume so sometimes you look and you see a more experienced fighter like alvis against a younger fighter well not younger he's 33 but a fighter doesn't have as much experience in the ring but and you take the more experienced fighter i don't think this is the case here i think the sniper laziz is on his way up he also trains in dubai so doesn't have to travel at home probably probably have to drive 20-30 minutes for this fight here so we're going to make this a level 2 lock we want on Monday and Tuesday on our locks, level 2 lock we're going for 3 in a row with Munir, Sniper Laziz minus 235 over Worley Albus”
Warlley Alves stopped Mounir Lazzez by first-round TKO (2:35) at UFC on ESPN 20 (Fight Island 8) on Jan 20, 2021; the Lazzez moneyline lost (ESPN fighter history).
“okay so the grand salami is you can bet over or under the total goals scored on all the games that evening so you can do it in baseball they even put it out for football and people bet a lot in baseball i think that's where it started but uh people are betting it now in hockey and so here's what I found. So at the beginning of the season, the NHL, they had announced that they were adding a microchip to the pucks. They were going to track puck and player movement, including shot speed, a few other things. But after a few games, the players and the coaches complained because these special pucks, they were bouncing all over the ice. They were bouncing weird. And And this wasn't moving correctly, the puck. So before the games last night, the league announced that it was removing them and going back to the normal pucks. It was a big relief, I thought, for the players and the coaches from what I'm hearing. And a good sign for game over. So we're going to take the over 30-and-a-half on the Grand Salami. Take all the games that are being played tonight. And in hockey, there's a total of five games. just add total goals scored in the five games. We're going to going over the 30 and a half goals. That's going to be our hidden gem for the day.”
The five NHL games on the Jan 20, 2021 slate (Oilers-Maple Leafs 4, Blues-Sharks 3, Wild-Ducks 5, Canucks-Canadiens 11, Golden Knights-Coyotes 7) combined for 30 goals, one goal under the 30.5 Grand Salami total (ESPN scoreboard). (NHL Jan 20, 2021 slate: 30 combined goals across 5 games)
“bet online AG line for this game. Tennessee minus 6.5 versus Florida. What are your thoughts on this one? Two teams going in different directions here. Tennessee's won three straight. But you look at the teams that they beat. Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Vandy. No great shakes there. Florida lost three of the last four. But some pretty decent teams. Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi State. And most importantly, when you're handicapping this game, is two of those three games are on the road. This game is at Florida. Tennessee plays great defense. I mean, allowing only 61 points per game. They're number two in college basketball. And it's adjusted defensive efficiency. Florida's defense, not good on the road, but pretty darn good at home, allowing just 64.5 points per game here. I'm going to take a shot here. I'm going to take Florida here, plus 6.5 points.”
Florida 75, Tennessee 49 — Florida upset Tennessee 75-49 outright, covering +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.ag line for this one, Ohio State minus 4.5 versus Purdue. How are you feeling this one? Oh, I feel real good here. So identical 5 records but Purdue just 2 straight up and 2 against the spread on the road Just not a good road team They don travel well And also Purdue won the first meeting 67 minus 6 points at home But Ohio State was without Ford E.J. Little. He scored 47 points in the last three games, and Ohio State off an impressive 87-81 road win against Illinois, who I think is a really talented team. And they were in the lead the entire game, and they controlled the entire game. I think the key to Purdue eventually being a really good team here is their center, Zach Edney. Here's a guy that if he can learn how to not foul, and he fouls on the offensive and defensive end. He's so tall. I think he's like 7'4". He's clearing out with his elbows, but his elbows are right at everyone's head and neck level, the other centers for the other team. So he gets called for a lot of fouls. He's a true freshman. I think he's going to be incredible, but he's not there yet. They had to bring him off the bench. And if they can eventually start this kid and he can stay out of foul trouble, he's going to be a kid that scores 18, 20 points a night, grabs 10 to 14 rebounds. But he's not there yet. So I like Ohio State. Nice little revenge spot here. You only have to lay four and a half points. Blowout city. Blowout special here.”
Purdue 67, Ohio State 65 — Purdue beat Ohio State 67-65; the Buckeyes lost outright, missing the -4.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“The BetOnline.ag line for this one, Winnipeg versus Ottawa, over six, minus 106. It's a little bit different angle that we're taking in this one. Yeah and you know we just on fire right now In hockey we went 3 last night We right now 8 for my clients So, you know, hey, there's different ways to win. Coming out tomorrow, we go back to the UFC to actually have a card on Wednesday night. So we're looking for any angle we can get to win on these things. So I found one here in hockey, the Winnipeg Jets and the Ottawa Centers, over 6-106. This matchup has gone over the total of six in five straight matchups. It absolutely should go over the total tonight. These two teams gave up the third most and the seventh most shots against a goal per game here in the league last year. Ottawa's averaging 3.3 goals per game. Winnipeg allowing 2.85 goals per game. Winnipeg has arguably the best goaltender in the NHL right now. But, big but, he started last night in Toronto, meaning that almost for sure the backup goaltender will start here. And also Winnipeg's on back-to-backers here with travel from Toronto to Ottawa, and that's a big factor also. I expect a 5-4 final here. Not sure who's going to win, so we'll just play the over. We think he goes over by two or three goals here. We're going to go with a level-2 lock, hit a level-3 lock last night.”
Winnipeg 4, Ottawa 3 — Jets beat Senators 4-3 in overtime; the 7 combined goals cleared the over 6 total (ESPN box score).
“Betonline.ag line for this one, UConn, minus 7.5 versus the Johnnies. What are you thinking? Okay, so UConn returns home after winning three conference games on the road. And most people say, oh, okay, they'll keep winning. And it all sounds good, but they're going up against their nemesis, and it's the St. John's Redmen. And now St. John's, now what do they do? They seem to always play well against UConn. One four and one against the spread. The last six times that they've played has been UConn, and St. John's beat Butler by 12. And then the last game almost upset Marquette 73-71. The reason I'm not going to lay seven and a half points here is A leading scorer for UConn, Bukknight. He's out indefinitely with elbow surgery. So I just don't think they have enough firepower here. I'll take the 7.5 points here in an early start, 2.30 Eastern. So we would like to reward the people that download and are listening right off the bat when we release this podcast. So early one here on Martin Luther King Day. A lot of early games in college basketball, NBA, hockey. So let's go as the wrong team favorite. St. John's plus 7.5 at 2.30 Eastern.”
St. John's 74, UConn 70 — St. John's upset UConn 74-70 outright, covering +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Bucs, minus two at Brooklyn. What are your thoughts on this one? Well, two red-hot teams. Milwaukee, four-game winning streak. Brooklyn, three-game winning streak. And all eyes will be here because these look like they're clearly the best two teams in the Eastern Conference right now and are probably going to be there in the end. So, hey, James Harden comes in, has a great debut. They win the game. But here's the thing about Milwaukee. I think their starting lineup is almost as good as Brooklyn, but they have the better and the deeper bench here. And the great freak also getting his stroke back the last three games. Once he gets it going, he's almost unstoppable. So, like I said, I just like the three-point shooting for Milwaukee in their bench. I think that might be the difference here. You're laying two on the road. It's basically a pick-em ball game. Blowout special. Milwaukee puts Brooklyn in their place here in a 730 Eastern start”
Nets 125, Bucks 123 — Nets beat Bucks 125-123; Milwaukee lost outright, missing the -2 cover (ESPN box score).
“The BetOnline AG line for this game, Baylor minus nine versus the Jayhawks. Big 12 action. What are you thinking, Lee? That's crazy. Historically, it's only been that few times we've seen top ten teams. So they're a great women's team for the Baylor Bears and Lady Bears, and then also Baylor men's basketball team, which has been really good of late. But that being the case here, you know, this Kansas team is so inconsistent. This is a team that gets blown out by Texas one week, and then the next week they destroy TCU. Then there are games you know when they barely beat Oklahoma and then they lose to Oklahoma State like we had Oklahoma State last week So you can get too invested in one team going with them or against them And I think this is a great situation here to take Kansas I mean, you're going to get a blue blood team like Kansas, which clearly a top 10 team, and they can play. I mean, they can play with anyone, but like I said, they're up and down, and now they're going to face off against the Baylor team. Last couple games, they have not even scored 70 points. So here's what I'm going to do. It's going to be not only a level three lock for Kansas, plus nine points. I'm going to put half my wager on the money line.”
Baylor 77, Kansas 69 — Baylor beat Kansas 77-69; the Jayhawks lost by 8, covering the +9 spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline AG line for this game, Baylor minus nine versus the Jayhawks. Big 12 action. What are you thinking, Lee? That's crazy. Historically, it's only been that few times we've seen top ten teams. So they're a great women's team for the Baylor Bears and Lady Bears, and then also Baylor men's basketball team, which has been really good of late. But that being the case here, you know, this Kansas team is so inconsistent. This is a team that gets blown out by Texas one week, and then the next week they destroy TCU. Then there are games you know when they barely beat Oklahoma and then they lose to Oklahoma State like we had Oklahoma State last week So you can get too invested in one team going with them or against them And I think this is a great situation here to take Kansas I mean, you're going to get a blue blood team like Kansas, which clearly a top 10 team, and they can play. I mean, they can play with anyone, but like I said, they're up and down, and now they're going to face off against the Baylor team. Last couple games, they have not even scored 70 points. So here's what I'm going to do. It's going to be not only a level three lock for Kansas, plus nine points. I'm going to put half my wager on the money line. They are plus 355. So if they win the game outright, you're wagering $100, and you can win $355. count me in here. So level three lock here on the Kansas Jayhawks plus a nine at Baylor. And half my wager also on the money line, Kansas plus three 55. I like that right there. I like how you kind of splitting things up and kind of finding multiple ways to win money. And that's a, that's a hell of a note right there, man. A hundred bucks can win you 355. That's, that's well worth it. That's man. I really liked that one, man. That's, that's, that's taking a deep dive Lee. Yeah, so there's different ways to attack games. You know, we talked about in the NFL, you know, playing totals, hockey, playing just first quarters, you know, money lines. Sometimes it's the way to go. Play them all the time in college football balls. But here in college basketball, I see a live underdog. And, I mean, this line I think should be 6'6 1⁄2". We're getting it at 9. And for that reason, we're going to take the game. Can't shy away from the game and make it a level 3 lock. and how many times you're going to get Kansas against anyone plus 355.”
Baylor 77, Kansas 69 — Baylor beat Kansas 77-69 outright; the Kansas +355 moneyline bet lost (ESPN box score).
“Western Kentucky, minus 4 versus Marshall. How are you feeling this one? I feel good because this is a conference, Conference USA this year, that is just so even. There's no one team that's great. And normally Western Kentucky, one of the toughest home court advantages, but two similar teams. Both of these two teams played Louisiana Tech in the last week, and they split games. The Thundering Herd, they have a big-time scorer named Tavian Kinsey. He's averaged at least 20 points in each of the last three games, so he's on fire. And then Western Kentucky, they've got a big-time scorer in Charles Basie. Charles Basie has scored at least 20 points in four of the last five games. So I think these two teams go back and forth. If Western Kentucky was playing in front of a packed house, it might be a bigger advantage. But I see two similar teams. I see a very competitive conference. Probably goes down to the last possession. A line to open up at one and a half. It's now up to minus four is the betonline.ag line. I think it's too much. I'm going to take the four points. Wrong team's favorite, Marshall, at seven and two. Might even move to eight and two. Take them plus the four points here versus Western Kentucky.”
Western Kentucky 81, Marshall 73 — Western Kentucky beat Marshall 81-73; the Herd lost by 8, missing the +4 cover (ESPN recap).
“The betonline.ag line for Dusko Todorovic, a.k.a. Thunder. It's much easier to say his nickname. 10-0, minus 160 over Puna Soriano, a.k.a. Storytime, who's 7-0. Tell me how you break this down. How do we get here? What do we do on this game or fight? Okay, well, the first thing is always when you're wagering on anything, you need to know the time. The card starts at 12 noon so we don know the exact starting time but probably going to be a five and a half to six hour card So this is the sixth fight There 11 fights somewhere in the middle probably going to start anywhere between two and three o Eastern time And I love the UFC I think because also there no crowds you're able to hear the impact of the punches. So as, uh, as it went on, I think that I knew more and more and found out more about these fighters. We won 25 of the 36 cards since they came back in May. Dusko here is...this guy's a killer on the ground. Once he gets you down, he will either submit you or ground and pound. Just more weapons here than Puna. He beat a high-level fighter, Michelle Pereira. I expect him to take Puna out here in the first or second round here, lay the 160, Blowout special, Dusko Todorovic, easy win over Puna Soriano.”
Punahele Soriano stopped Dusko Todorovic by first-round TKO (4:48) at UFC on ABC 1 (Fight Island 7) on Jan 16, 2021; the Todorovic moneyline lost (UFC.com official result video).
“BetOnline.ag line for the Ottawa Senators versus the Maple Leafs. Over the two goals in the first period. Break that one down for us. Yeah, so we took the over last night in a hockey match. And we took the over six total of 10 goals. You don't see that too often. So don't see any totals for the entire game that I love, but I love a first-period total here. Typically, first-period totals are set at 1.5. But Toronto hit the over two with ease in their first game. And with a new goaltender for Ottawa, a guy named Matt Murray, I expect early fireworks here. These two teams gave up the second most and the eighth most first period goals last year. I expect that to continue this year. And let's look for three or four goals to be scored here in the first period. Over two goals here in the first period, Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs.”
Ottawa and Toronto each scored once in the first period (Hyman PP goal for Toronto, Chabot PP goal for Ottawa) for exactly 2 first-period goals, pushing the over/under 2 total (ESPN box score). (1st period: Ottawa 1, Toronto 1 (2 goals))
“The BetOnline.ag line for Packers, minus six and a half versus the Rams. Again, played in the frozen tundra. What are your thoughts on this one? I'm going to give you two more. I'm going to give you the Packers in this game, Aaron Rodgers, poor weather. Weather is going to be a factor in these two games. So I checking the weather You got to check it by the hour You can just check it by the day it looks like during the game it going to be between 32 and 34 degrees only a 10 chance of snow but i think that's enough here for green bay aaron rogers almost unbeatable when he's playing in cold weather at home in lambeau field i think the road to the super bowl in the nfc runs through lambeau field and aaron rogers here i mean what kind of season has he had uh incredible 48 touchdown passes only five interceptions, and they have a running game. Their other receivers besides Adams have really started to come on also, and they're fresh, you know, coming off the bye here. Aaron Donald can't be close to 100%. He misses the second half like last week. I don't think it's bruised with ribs. I think he's got cracked ribs here, and this is an offense. The Rams now led by Jericho, only one touchdown. They scored a second-quarter touchdown here. only touchdown they scored in the last 28 possessions. Give me Green Bay big here, 30-14.”
Green Bay 32, LA Rams 18 — Packers beat Rams 32-18 in the NFC Divisional Round; the Green Bay moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for Packers, minus six and a half versus the Rams. Again, played in the frozen tundra. What are your thoughts on this one? I'm going to give you two more. I'm going to give you the Packers in this game, Aaron Rodgers, poor weather. Weather is going to be a factor in these two games. So I checking the weather You got to check it by the hour You can just check it by the day it looks like during the game it going to be between 32 and 34 degrees only a 10 chance of snow but i think that's enough here for green bay aaron rogers almost unbeatable when he's playing in cold weather at home in lambeau field i think the road to the super bowl in the nfc runs through lambeau field and aaron rogers here i mean what kind of season has he had uh incredible 48 touchdown passes only five interceptions, and they have a running game. Their other receivers besides Adams have really started to come on also, and they're fresh, you know, coming off the bye here. Aaron Donald can't be close to 100%. He misses the second half like last week. I don't think it's bruised with ribs. I think he's got cracked ribs here, and this is an offense. The Rams now led by Jericho, only one touchdown. They scored a second-quarter touchdown here. only touchdown they scored in the last 28 possessions. Give me Green Bay big here, 30-14. That's going to be one of my selections here in the NFL, here in the division round. And then the other one I like, another game right after it, weather will be involved. It's Buffalo laying two-and-a-half points. It's a bet on line, that AG line, and they're playing Baltimore. Both teams got over the hump. The Bills, their first win in the playoffs since 1995 when Jim Kelly was the quarterback. Lamar Jackson, his first win. They get off the Schneid. And I think Lamar Jackson is going to play well here in this game. But the problem is I think their back end isn't good enough. And when Josh Allen's on fire, he can beat you with his legs, with his arms. Stephon Diggs, Brown, he's got so many weapons. Both his running backs really good out of the backfield catching the ball. So it's going to be 34 degrees, looks like, during the game, 20% to 35% chance of snow. And I just think Buffalo, I don't know if you know this, Lamar Jackson has never played in a snow game. He played in a game where there's snow on the ground, but never snowing during the game. So I think Baltimore's finally found themselves. I just think that Buffalo's feeling a little bit higher here. I'm going to lay the two and a half points in a shootout, Buffalo 38-34.”
Buffalo 17, Baltimore 3 — Bills beat Ravens 17-3 in the AFC Divisional Round, covering -2.5 by a 14-point margin (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.ag line for this game, Arizona minus 8 versus Oregon State. What are your thoughts on this one? Okay, so I almost never will back Washington State and Oregon State when they're on the road. I mean, these are pretty much bad teams in college basketball. But at home, I mean, it's a different story. So what we found here is they like to protect the home court. They are playing, Oregon State is, against an Arizona team that just lost their second leading scorer. Jamari Baker kid that averages 12 points per game so he's lost for the season with a broken hand a lot of people will say okay well you know Arizona's a good team they lost two games they'll come back here yeah they might win the game here but look you really want to lay eight points in a game on the road against a team that's hungry uh playing a little bit better basketball and always a good home team I don't think so I'm going to take Oregon State plus the eight I think the game goes down to the wire. Wouldn't surprise me if the Beavers win the game outright. Wayne Tickles, one of these guys used to coach at Montana in his sixth season at Oregon State. Always a great home record. He believes in protecting the home court. Let's go with Oregon State here, plus the eight points. Look for a tight ball game.”
Arizona 98, Oregon State 64 — Arizona routed Oregon State 98-64; the Beavers lost by 34, well outside the +8 cover (ESPN box score).
“the betonline.ag line for this game, San Antonio minus seven versus the Rockets. Give me your thoughts on this one. Okay, so what we've seen, we've seen some really strange stuff going on this year. I mean, we're talking about a couple nights ago, the Miami Heat, they only dressed eight players, two players that have barely even played in games played and scored a combined, I think it was like almost 40 points. What happens? Miami should have won the game. and they lose in overtime, and they're getting almost double-digit points, and they cover. So what we're seeing is these teams that have been undermanned, they have somehow covered. I just think it's a weird occurrence. I think it's going to be one of these cases here where finally, you know, we saw Brooklyn. You know, we talked about Brooklyn earlier. Brooklyn, what did they do last night? They're undermanned. They beat New York on the road, 116-109. I think we're going to finally see a team that just doesn't have the firepower get blown out. Why will they get blown out Houston tonight at San Antonio? Because they're facing a veteran coach, Greg Popovich. Maybe a young coach couldn't get his troops ready and prepared for a battle like this. But we're seeing Greg Popovich. He has a really good influence on younger players. They have a kid named Lonnie Walker from the University of Miami Lonnie Walker you know was the last couple years guy coming off the bench playing maybe 10 to 15 minutes He thrust into the starting position this year He's starting. All of a sudden, he's blossoming. And he was only averaging getting to the free throw line one time per game coming to the last two games. Last two games, he gets to the line 13 times. So, you know, he's able to work some magic with these young players here. They're playing some good basketball here. Houston will be undermanned. Play the seven points, bet it as soon as possible. This might be one of those games where San Antonio wins this game by 15 to 25 points.”
Rockets 109, Spurs 105 — Rockets beat Spurs 109-105; San Antonio lost outright, missing the -7 cover (ESPN box score).
“Buffalo versus Washington, over six, minus 101. It's the first game of the season for both teams. Again, the betonline.ag line for this. Buffalo versus Washington, over six, minus 101. What are your thoughts on this one? Okay, so my theory on wagering is always make sure you have the proper bankroll. Don't, after one bad day, say, okay, I'm done with that sport. I'm going to go to another sport. You've got to trust the process. For instance, with my clients, my hockey clients yesterday, I went one and two. I had a Tampa Bay game, minus one and a half goals. They won big. I lose another game where the team totally outshot the other team, outplayed them, but lost in overtime. Five to four. And then a third game, like I said, we gave out on the show here yesterday. Edmonton probably the right side but just couldn hit the key shot They lose five to three So I trusting the process I not afraid to come back the next day I think I saw something based on what we seeing based on last year, the end of the year, how teams are preparing. And what it is, it's the Buffalo Sabres and Washington Capitals. We're going to go over 6 minus 101 is the betonline.ag line here. Buffalo Buffalo's team, they had a new acquisition. Taylor Hall looked fantastic from reports in camp on the top line. Eric Stahl, he improved the battle he needed for depth there. Also, the Capitals got embarrassed in the bubble last postseason. they were like the Clippers in the NBA they looked disinterested they took a lot of heat for it in the offseason and I expect them to come out flying to start the season neither team improved very much on struggling defense in the offseason so I think we're going to see 2-3 goals in the first period maybe a score by something like 5-3 either team wins I can't figure out who's going to win the game But like I said, the total is six here. I think we're going to see eight plus goals here. So we're going to go over six total goals here, and we're going to make it a level two lock.”
Washington 6, Buffalo 4 — Capitals beat Sabres 6-4; the 10 combined goals cleared the over 6 total (ESPN box score).
“The BetOnline.ag line for it, Mavs, minus 4.5 versus the Hornets. And I think Chris Statsporzingis is back for the Mavs. How are you feeling this game? Yeah, so, yeah, that's why one of the reasons most NBA people will be watching this game, and they also love watching Luka Donick. So, yeah, it has an exciting feel to it because the Mavericks have won three straight. And believe it or not, after getting off to a horrific start, Charlotte has won four games in a row. We don't know the status of Josh Richardson here, Dorian Finley-Smith, and Jalen Brunson. There was contact tracing there. They may or may not play. But Porzingis is the story. He's going to come back and play. I would expect he's going to play somewhere between 18 and 24 minutes tonight. And one of the keys and one of the things I look at when I'm going to be playing or going against a team, when the star or the co-star comes back and plays, people will be on them that first game. And that's usually not the time to be on them. It's usually the second game, whether it's football, basketball, any sport. And even on top of that, in the last game, Tim Hardaway Jr., who actually used to shoot hoops, went to my two kids and my wife's high school, used to shoot hoops and practice on my court in high school and in college when he came home. He lit up the gym on Saturday night, scored 36 points and five rebounds. Trey Burke, who is his running mate at Michigan, he came off the bench and scored 29 points. These guys are just hot and cold guys. They can go from 36 and 29 to scoring 10 and 8 points. So you can't count on that. So the reason I'm going to be behind the Hornets here and say the wrong team is favorite, Gordon Haywood. Missed quite a bit of time in the playoffs last year, but he has not missed a game this year. LaMelo Ball averaging almost 12.5 points per game. He looks like he's really starting to fit into this team. And Devontae Graham leading the team, distributing the ball with six and a half assists per contest. And even Terry Rozier looks like he is a nice fit here, averaging 19.5 points per game. Wrong team's favorite. Charlotte at home, plus the 4.5 gets the win straight up.”
Mavericks 104, Hornets 93 — Mavericks beat Hornets 104-93; Charlotte lost by 11, missing the +4.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“the betonline.ag line for Edmonton, minus 135. That's the money line, again, at home versus the Canucks. Give me your knowledge on this one, man. How are you feeling it? Oh, okay. So Edmonton is a team that I think is going to be underrated. What they do is they split up their two stars. Everyone knows McDavid, but they split these two guys up to keep, you know, the two front lines pretty even, and I like that. So I think you want to lock this line in early. It's 135 now, could close at 140, 145, or even 150. Vancouver's without its star forward, JT Miller and defenseman, Jordy Bend due to COVID tonight. They have three new defenders and a new goaltender, so it's going to take them some time to settle in. They also cut off training camp early due to COVID concerns just days before this first game here. I like Edmonton. 10 o'clock Eastern start. Blow out special. Edmonton gets the season started off right. There's only 56 games this year. Got to get off to good starts. Take Edmonton minus 135 here.”
Canucks 5, Oilers 3 — Canucks defeated Oilers 5-3; the Edmonton moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this game. Louisville minus 8 at Wake Forest. What are your thoughts on this one? Okay, so some changes here at Wake Forest. They had former coach Danny Manning. They went in a different direction. What did they do? They hired new head coach Steve Forbes from East Tennessee State. I think he's going to be really spectacular. Before that, he was at Tennessee and Wichita State, had recruited and mentored many NBA stars, including Van Fleet. You know, the list goes on and on. But I think it's going to take time. You know, he's dealing with a roster that was left over and wasn't able to get many guys into the transfer portal. He's going to face a Louisville team, Carly Jones. He leads Louisville with 16.5 points per game, six rebounds and almost five assists per game. And he hasn't even reached his potential last year. He averaged 20 points per game. They have another sophomore guard, David Johnson, scoring almost 15 points per game. And then they added a freshman forward, Jalen Withers, also scoring in double figures here at 10 points per game. Demon Deacons here opened the season with three wins over really bad non-conference opponents. And then they were supposed to face number 17, Virginia, Syracuse. But those games were canceled due to COVID issues on this team. They're two number one scores. These two guys coming back from COVID. I just think I have friends who have had it. and you can't come back and you're not the same right at first, and then they open play with consecutive road losses at Georgia Tech, at Virginia, at Duke. If you think all of a sudden coming home is going to cure all evils, that's not the case. This Louisville team is really strong. So we're going to lay the eight points here, even on the road here, looking for a double-digit win and a three-unit. That's it. Surprise. three-unit lock on a Wednesday with Louisville minus C8 over Wake Forest. Boom, boom, and boom right there with that level three lock from Lee Sterling for Louisville right there.”
Louisville 77, Wake Forest 65 — Louisville beat Wake Forest 77-65, covering -8 by a 12-point margin (ESPN box score).
“Under 67 and a half points is the betonline.ag line for this. They're only playing a 57-game schedule. Explain this one to me and break it down for me. Okay, so this is a spot I've been looking forward to since the Stanley Cup ended last year. Aside from Dallas expecting that cup hangover, the Stars have several issues to worry about as we hit the shortened 2021 season here. Stanley Cup losers have not hit their subsequent seasons point total here and over for the last five seasons in the NHL. Despite their letdown potential, Dallas reached a cup final with a negative goal differential in the playoffs last year, minus five. Up front, where they struggled mightily through the season, 26 in goals per game. They lost veteran here, Corey Perry, and gained nobody. We're going with the under 67.5 total points here for the Dallas Stars in the 2021 NHL season.”
The Dallas Stars finished the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 NHL season 23-19-14 for 60 points, under the 67.5 total (Wikipedia season summary of NHL final standings). (Dallas Stars: 60 points (23-19-14))
“BetOnline.ag line for Kansas, minus 3.5 versus the Cowboys at Oklahoma State. Okay, so you have a pretty good feel for Big 12 basketball action. And in the past, when I've watched games between Oklahoma State and Kansas, Oklahoma State just couldn't play with the Jayhawks because they didn't have the athletes and the scorers. This year, they had Cade Cunningham, projected top draft pick, true freshman. The kid is spectacular, fun to watch. Also, two fellow freshmen, Rondell Walker and Matthew Alexander Moncrief. And they also, on top of that, added two veteran transfers. For Ron Flavors Jr., he's a kid from Cal Baptist, and Bryce Williams from Ole Miss. Both of these guys are capable scores. Kansas, the number eight defense. But they're going to be going up against an Oklahoma State offense. Last year was ranked number 84 in the country. This year up to 53. They can also play some defense, number 28 in the country. So two similar defenses here. Just think that the athletes, they might have as good or better athletes at Oklahoma State here. You look at the record, eight and three, you're figuring, oh, the average person hasn't watched Oklahoma State. But they scored 84 versus West Virginia, 82 versus Texas Tech, 74 versus Texas, and they didn't even play well in that game here. The wrong team is favored. I think Oklahoma State's win straight up here over Kansas and knocks off one of the top ten teams in the Kansas Jayhawks.”
Oklahoma State 75, Kansas 70 — Oklahoma State defeated Kansas 75-70 on a buzzer-beating steal-and-dunk (ESPN box score); Oklahoma State moneyline won.
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Miami, minus 2 versus Boston College. How are you feeling this one? Okay, so here's something that I do, and I feel is very important in handicapping. So I do have two people on my staff who help me in basketball. but I go to games in person So I can go to the Miami games this year Can go to most other games but I can actually go to the Florida International games So I go and I sit in the corner up in the rafters and watch an FIU game So I know the Conference USA extremely well because I go to the games. I know the coaches and I know the ACC well because, you know, until this year I've been going to every single Miami home game and watch the games intently. So I like Miami here. So they do have a 5-5 record, but this is a team they were playing at one time 10 days ago with six scholarship players. And one of them was a true freshman who is probably not going to be played. He's probably going to be redshirt in most perfect situations. Now they have nine of their top ten players back. They won on the road against North Carolina State on Saturday. They're a guard-oriented offense, and they're playing a Boston College team that's number 318 out of 350-plus teams in defense are giving up 80 points per game. Boston College has lost, I think it's something like nine or ten straight games now. They're going to keep losing here. I don't know if Miami's going to be a tournament team, but they're 5-5. Don't be surprised if they end up 6th or 7th in the conference by the time the season is all over. They're one and four right now. So they have everyone back now. Love coach Jim Laranaga. He had one time led his team to a final four before joining up here in Miami. I like Miami blow out city blow out special Miami big over Boston college.”
Boston College 84, Miami 62 — Boston College defeated Miami 84-62 (ESPN box score); Miami moneyline lost.
“Lakers in Houston the betonline line Lakers minus five versus the Rockets Give me your thoughts on this one Okay so call me crazy but I have a feeling that James Harden might end up staying in Houston So it really tough to work out trades for superstars like that just matching up the money. You know, Houston's going to want quite a few draft picks. So as teams go deeper and deeper into the season, I just think that he might end up staying. This is a team that scored just 102 points two nights ago against the Lakers. This is one of these home-and-home series games. And we're starting to study these. First couple games didn't seem to matter. If you had won the first game, you might just go ahead and win the second game. It's not that fatigue factor yet. But now teams have played more usually than 10 games. And just think that Houston is still a good offense. Yeah, they were missing some players due to COVID. So if you look at their ranking, they're still ranked number 12 in scoring offense. They're scoring 110.8 points per possession, or per 100 possessions. So I think that's going to go up, so that's actually a little misleading. I think they're going to be a top four or five offense by the end of the year. Also, their power forward and center, Christian Wood, I think he's going to be motivated. He was outplayed in the game, played two days ago. And even Houston practiced yesterday on a day off here while the Lakers took the day off, didn't practice. and also LeBron James and AD both listed as questionable with a left ankle sprain and a right abductor sprain. So don't be surprised. You know, it's COVID times, and we've seen what's happened the last couple years in the NBA, they're resting key players every five, six games. I wouldn't be shocked if one of these two players sits it out here. It's tough to beat a team twice in a home-and-home series here. So I'm going to take the five points here in Houston. I say bet it now. Normally I say wait on the underdog. I say bet it right now. I think the line could go down. Who knows if one of those two stars doesn't play, Lakers might only be a two or three point favorite. So we're going to take Houston here plus the five points, level one lock.”
LA Lakers 117, Houston 100 — The Lakers defeated Houston 117-100 (ESPN box score); Houston +5 lost by a 17-point margin, did not cover.
“betonline.ag line for Grambling State, minus 7.5 versus Alcorn State. I like these two teams. I like these two matchups. How are you feeling this game, Lee? Well, they're not going to score much more than football games. So how about this? There's an old axiom in football and in basketball. Never lay a lot of points if your team can't score. So they might be better than the other team, but you've got to cover a big spread. So in this game, Grambling State's favored by 7.5. If you're like me, you're like Alcorn State, you wait. I think the line's going to close 8.5, not 9. We've been right on most of these games as far as projecting where the line will move. I'm probably right 80, 85% of the time. And it's an underdog. Underdogs, like I said, generally, if you wait, you're going to get a better line close to tip-off. So Alcorn State, okay, they're not good. They're 0-5, but they played some good teams. They lost to Baylor. They lost to Houston, Vanderbilt, and UAB. That's four of the five losses. Okay, they're 0-5. They averaged 61 points. Not good. But Grambling State's not much better. They're 3-6. They're averaging 61.1 points per game. And listen to the three teams they beat. Alabama State, they beat East Texas Baptist. I didn't know they had a basketball team. And Louisiana Monroe. So I'm not impressed. They got blown out against Arizona by the same origin that Alcorn State did to these good teams. So I think it's going to be a game. It's going to be a three- to five-point game either way. Like I said, I think you're going to end up getting eight, eight-and-a-half points. We're going to wait on this one. But right now the line's seven-and-a-half. We'll play right there. Wrong team favored. Alcorn State gets the cover. They might even win it outright.”
Grambling State 79, Alcorn State 74 — Grambling State defeated Alcorn State 79-74 (ESPN box score); Alcorn State +7.5 covered by losing only 5.
“betonline.ag line for this one. Boise State, minus 8.5 at Wyoming. Lee, thoughts on this one? Okay, so if you look at the record, you say, okay, Boise's a really good team. 10-1, 6-0 in conference. Do you want to lay 8.5 points at Wyoming, who's 7-2, who's 1-1 in conference? Well, most people don't look deep into a game like this, and I have. Wyoming, now they're starting to play the better teams. Their best three players are freshmen. They have this kid Hunter Maldonado, Marcus Williams, and Kenny Foster. These three guys, three true freshmen, have scored 52% of the points in the last five games. Wyoming 6 when they record six or more steals but 1 when they steal the ball fewer than six times Boise State takes care of the ball They play defense. They're destroying pretty much anyone. The only game they lost was to Houston, 68-58. Houston's a good team. They were 1-16 from three-point land. So you're not going to win games like that. I mean, this team, conceivably, if they had played decent, could be 11-0 people. You know, you might end up having to lay here 12 or 13 points. So, Wyoming has beaten Mississippi Valley State, Incarnate Word, Denver, Utah Valley, and Nebraska Omaha. I'm not impressed. Boise State, blowout city, blowout special, lay the 8-1⁄2.”
Boise State 83, Wyoming 60 — Boise State defeated Wyoming 83-60 (ESPN box score), covering -8.5 by a 23-point margin.
“BetOnline.ag line for this game. Portland minus four versus Toronto with the total being 233 and a half points. All right. What's your thoughts on this one? How are you feeling it? Okay. So generally when you see the lowest total of the day in the NBA, the game goes under. When you see the highest total, it goes over. And then I dig even deeper into this game. This is the last game of a five-game road trip here for Toronto. They are playing no defense are 20th in defense two and seven record but they got two guards that can fill it up Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet And they going to be going up against two really good guards for Portland Damian Lillard and C.J. McCallum. And Lillard and McCallum are red hot. It seems like they're taking turns. One guy will score 35-40, then the other guy will do it. Sometimes they do it together. Fred VanVleet really coming to his own. He signed a big contract. He's your leading scorer. He's playing well. This is just one of these games where these two teams are just going to play free and easy. I mean, look at Toronto. Even Toronto, who's 2-7, last four games have scored 116, 114, 115, and 144 points. Portland, listen to this. They've scored 123, 122, 108, 135, and 125 points. I mean, just don't even leave your seat here. I'm going to be eating my double chocolate bill bar dessert. Because I always like to have something for the late game. And trying to watch my weight, my New Year's resolution, trying to drop another 5, 10 pounds. Love that double chocolate. I'm going to be eating my double chocolate here and watching this game. This game's going over 250 here. This is going to be like a track meet here. lock level two over 233 total points portland toronto yeah this is a game if you love points this is your game for every reason that you just described i love those backcourts for both teams really love cj and dame love what they do there in portland with the trailblazers and uh yeah this is going to be a fun one man and i might have to get my bill bar on as well uh to enjoy this game So there you go, level two lock Portland, Toronto. It's going over 233 and a half points, says Lee Sterling.”
Portland 112, Toronto 111 — Portland defeated Toronto 112-111 (ESPN box score); the 223 combined points fell short of the 233.5 total, so the over lost.
“BetOnline.ag line for this game. FIU minus one and a half versus Middle Tennessee. What are your thoughts on this one? So Middle Tennessee is playing at home, but they haven't played since December 16th due to COVID issues. They have lost to some teams that are not quite frankly very good. Chattanooga by 10, 80 to 70. East Tennessee State by 14, 57, 43. They're not scores. 3.05 in scoring efficiency at about 350 teams. Also, 3.20 is their ranking in turnover. So this is the overall number 202nd ranked team in Ken Palm. I don't even know why they're that high. They only have one win versus Division I team. And Nick McDevitt, what has he done since he's come over? This is the start of his third year. Well, he's gone 1944. That's a 30% winning percentage. On the other side, FIU does it with a lot of transfers, but they did beat a pretty good old Dominion team by 15, 82-67. Also beat Dunk City, formerly known as Florida Gulf Coast. People call them one or both of the nicknames. They beat them by 16. Even beat Central Michigan, 99-76. They one 21st scoring efficiency here blowout special They only laying one and a half points but I like FIU here 7 They move to 8 Easy win in Murfreesboro against Middle Tennessee State”
FIU 68, Middle Tennessee 55 — FIU defeated Middle Tennessee 68-55 in Murfreesboro (ESPN recap); FIU -1.5 covered by a 13-point margin.
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Steelers minus six versus the Browns, a little bit depleted. No head coach. What are you thinking on this one? Okay, so, yeah, Cleveland, give them credit last week. They had not practiced in a week and a half. Pull off and win. They get in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. But there's always one or two teams that don't belong there. And I believe it's the Cleveland Browns. So Kevin Staposky, he will not be calling plays their head coach. He's out. Alex Van Pelt will have to step in. That's got to mean something. I think that's something they're going to have to overcome. Look at Clemson. National championship game, they were without their offensive coordinator. They were not the same. Injuries. The best offensive lineman, out. What does that mean? Cam Hayward, who was held out of last week's games, he's going to be playing with a lot of energy, a lot of fire in his belly. He's one of the best defensive tackles. He might have a couple sacks here for the Pittsburgh Steelers. For the Cleveland Browns here, on defense, Miles Garrett has not been the same. His shoulder and knee injuries also coming back from COVID. Watch him, no explosiveness. On the other side, the other defensive end who's done a great job and underrated. No one really talks about him. Olivia Vernon, he's out for this game. Their cornerback, Ward, maybe one of the best young cornerbacks in the NFL. It looks like he may not be able to go. So, I mean, all these guys that are key players, their defense is just not good at all. Big Ben didn't play last week. I don't know how much longer he's going to play, but that week off I think is really going to help him. I think they're going to hit on big plays here. this is going to be a level three lock the pittsburgh steelers beat the cleveland browns they dispatch the cleveland browns cleveland browns may never recover here 45 10 boom boom and boom level three lock right there for the steelers over the browns”
Cleveland 48, Pittsburgh 37 — Cleveland defeated Pittsburgh 48-37 in the AFC Wild Card game (ESPN box score); Steelers moneyline lost.
“Right now, the betonline.ag line is plus $750. That means you can bet $100 and it returns $750. I'm betting Baylor right now.”
Baylor won the 2021 NCAA men's basketball championship, defeating undefeated Gonzaga 86-70 in the title game on April 5, 2021 (ESPN box score); the Baylor futures ticket won.
“The Iowa The Hawkeyes, we had them last night. They are now plus $1,400. Bet $100 to win $1,400 there.”
Iowa was eliminated by 7-seed Oregon 95-80 in the NCAA tournament second round on March 22, 2021 (ESPN box score); the Iowa-to-win-it-all futures ticket lost.
“BetOnline.ag line for it is Iowa, minus 5-1-2 versus Maryland. What are your thoughts? Yeah, you know your basketball. That was one of the things I was going to hit on. He's 6'11", 265 pounds, amazing hands, and really has a soft touch for a big guy. But he does come out of the Washington, D.C. area. Maryland did not recruit him out of Wright High School. Mainly, I heard, because he was out of shape, they thought. So you know that he's got a little chip on his shoulder. How good has he been over the last one and a half seasons? Well, he's averaging 27.5 points, 9.1 rebounds. He's shooting 62.4% from the field. And even at 6'11", 48.7 from behind the arc. He scored 25 points on 9-11 shooting in the nail-biting win over Rutgers on Saturday. This is a team here, Iowa, played 11 guys in that Rutgers game. So they have depth. The guy gets in foul trouble. Not going to have a problem here with that. Terps just don't have the inside game. They don't have the guys that, the bulk inside to stop a guy like this. Also, I was streaking. 12-5 against the spread, last 17 overall. 14-2 against the spread, the last 16. So, you know, when they're laying between 4 and 8 points. So, this is a team playing really well. Maryland never does well midweek games. In fact, 1-5 against the spread the last six Thursday games. Even 1-4 against the spread the last five home games. So not much of a home court advantage here. So I mentioned the size here. Big disadvantage. They got a guy named Galen Smith 6 240 But he only averages about 15 minutes per game They have a 7 kid but he just too thin to defend Garcia here So I like Iowa. Lay the five and a half points. Blow out city. Blow out special. Iowa by double digits.”
Iowa 89, Maryland 67 — Iowa defeated Maryland 89-67 on the road (ESPN box score); Iowa -5.5 covered by a 22-point margin.
“betonline.ag line for this game. Lakers, minus 6.5 versus the Spurs. Give me what you thought on this one. Okay, so these two teams played a little over a week ago. And in that game, what we saw was the Lakers go into San Antonio and they win 121-107. But look closer at this game. The last couple minutes of the game, I mean, there's almost no scoring at all. Lakers were pretty much just dribbling out the basketball. And still, 128 points scored. and the Lakers shot 33 three-pointers, San Antonio Spurs 34. Okay, and then so what happens after that? Well, the Lakers, the next two games, shot 35 three-pointers and 31. What happened in the Spurs last game where they go out west and they're playing in the same arena, so it not like they going to have trouble getting used to shooting in a different arena They played the Clippers and lost 116 That totals 129 points They shot 43 pointers So this is a San Antonio team that they just don't have any inside presence. They don't contest baskets. They're not going to be able to stop AD. They got guys like DeRozan, DeMar DeRozan, outside shooter. They got a new starter, a second-year kid named Lonnie Walker from the University of Miami. He likes to shoot from the outside. Aldridge, you know, LaMarcus Aldridge, 6'11", but he's not really an inside presence. He's not known as a defender. He only averages one block per game. Yeah, the Lakers have an inside presence, but they like to shoot three-pointers, and they'll get some easy baskets against San Antonio. So I think this is an up-and-down game here. Totals at .222. 222. I expect it to close near 224. Get on it now. Level one lock. We're going to go with a different way to attack an NBA game. We're going to go over 222 in the LA Lakers San Antonio game. Level one lock.”
San Antonio 118, LA Lakers 109 — San Antonio defeated the Lakers 118-109 (ESPN box score); the 227 combined points cleared the 222 total.
“BetOnline AG line for this game, Syracuse minus 11 versus Pitt. What's your thoughts on this one? So Pittsburgh is missing their leading scorer, but I think they're going to muck up this game. They do play defense. They're number 41 in defense in the country, and Syracuse, remember, plays that 2-3 zone. So a lot of their games, teams, they take their time. Pittsburgh doesn't want to get into a running game without their leading scorer, and it's going to take time for them to be able to penetrate that zone and get off good shots. So 11 points is a lot in a game like this. Both teams, have you been following both teams, Pittsburgh and Syracuse at all? They've been out for a minute, right? They haven't really had too much action. Yeah, Syracuse, first game since December 9th. Pittsburgh, they haven't played a little bit, but I expect an even play. When both teams have not played in a little while, shooting could be off, could be more turnovers than normal. I like Pittsburgh, wrong team favorite, plus 11.”
Pittsburgh 63, Syracuse 60 — Pittsburgh defeated Syracuse 63-60 outright (ESPN box score), easily covering +11.
“BetOnline AG line for this game, Syracuse minus 11 versus Pitt. What's your thoughts on this one? So Pittsburgh is missing their leading scorer, but I think they're going to muck up this game. They do play defense. They're number 41 in defense in the country, and Syracuse, remember, plays that 2-3 zone. So a lot of their games, teams, they take their time. Pittsburgh doesn't want to get into a running game without their leading scorer, and it's going to take time for them to be able to penetrate that zone and get off good shots. So 11 points is a lot in a game like this. Both teams, have you been following both teams, Pittsburgh and Syracuse at all? They've been out for a minute, right? They haven't really had too much action. Yeah, Syracuse, first game since December 9th. Pittsburgh, they haven't played a little bit, but I expect an even play. When both teams have not played in a little while, shooting could be off, could be more turnovers than normal. I like Pittsburgh, wrong team favorite, plus 11. I don't know if they're going to win the game, but I think they'll muck it up and keep it close. And something to look at also if you play totals. Might want to look at the under 141. I think it's going to drop to the high 130. So a correlated parlay, that's like playing two teams in one game. Certainly, if you like Pittsburgh, might also want to take a look at the under. I'm not a parlay player. The odds aren't great. You know, you play a two-team parlay, Usually the odds of winning it are 4-1, win two bets. They don't pay you 4-1. They only pay you 13-5 on a 3-1 parlay. They only pay you 6-1 when the odds are 8-1 to win. But once in a while, maybe three or four times a year, you look at a correlated parlay. Pittsburgh plus 11 is a wrong team favorite, and also maybe the under might be the way to go. I like it. Good stuff right there. I'll tell you, man, one thing about Syracuse, I do like that zone that you mentioned that they play. It is so difficult. So obviously it doesn't get all the success all the time, but, man, it's a heck of a thing when it's perfected and when it's executed to perfection. It's a thing of beauty. Did you play high school basketball? I did, but not well enough. I was the backup point guard, and all I know is whenever I saw a good 2-3 or 2-1-2 zone, I was always like, oh, no, here we go. So it's a different animal. And, you know, when you play pickup ball, no one plays zone. When you play college basketball, 95%, 97% of the time, they're playing man-to-man. So it's something that's really tough to prepare for, and teams also slow it down because they don't want to make as many mistakes. And it's a tool. It's worked for Jim Bayhom. 76, it seems like he's been around for 50 years. It's probably only been like 35, 40, though. Oh, boy. Last one out. Turn off the lights. This one's a blowout. All right, next up, we got the blowout special. We're going to turn our attention to the association, the NBA, a team you're very familiar with, the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics. The Heat, 3-3 on the season. The Celtics, 5-3 on the season. The bet on line, A.G. line for this game, Miami, minus 2.5 versus Boston. How are you feeling this one? I feel pretty good here. And the reason I do is I know Miami well. They are one of the best home teams. and they were, I think they had the best record at home last year. I know it's a bubble year, but it's crazy. They look really good. Finally, they're healthy. Jimmy Butler, he had missed two games. He also tried to play in the Dallas game. Didn't he? I think he only hit a couple free throws. I mean, he looked awful. Finally looked like himself in the win over Oklahoma State on Monday night Oklahoma City and Boston I think Boston going to be really good but they still missing Kemba Walker So what does that mean? Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown, they have to score probably 50 to 60 points a night. They just don't have the other scores. So with those two guys, going to have to pour it on against Miami as weapons. I mean, you've seen all the different guys that they have that can shoot threes. And they've been tinkering with their starting lineup. They put in Kelly Olenek as their fifth guy. They rotate different guys, different matchups, and they go about 11-12 deep, which Boston can't do. So I like Miami. I think they run Boston off the court here. Blowout special, bubble special Miami Heat here. Big over Boston.”
Boston 107, Miami 105 — Boston defeated Miami 107-105 on a Payton Pritchard putback at the buzzer (ESPN box score); Miami moneyline lost.
“bet online AG line for this one. Baylor minus 11 at home at the Ferrell Center versus Oklahoma. Give me the details on this one, Lee. Okay, as we know, Baylor, number two team in the country. And I think, you know, some years there's six, eight, ten teams. There's clearly two teams that are better than everyone right now unless there's injuries that take place. And it's Gonzaga and Baylor. They're ranked number two. They might be the best team in the country. Their third in adjusted offensive efficiency at 119.4, and sixth in defensive efficiency, third in points per game scored, 92.9 points per game. They also out-rebound opponents by 9.8 per game. So in their last game, their first conference game, they play Iowa State, just four for 19 from three-point land at 21%. 16 turnovers which is not normal for a really good team that shares the basketball and doesn normally turn it over I think they turn it around This is going to be a high game Oklahoma last game impressively at home beat West Virginia 75 Mojo Gibson, he scored 29 points, including, check this out, eight three-pointers. And OU shot 58% from three-point land. They were 14 for 24. You don't normally see that. You see that at home. You don't see that on the road. So I don't expect them to shoot anywhere close to above 50%. I'd be shocked if they shoot 40% on three-pointers in an unfamiliar building. So I like Baylor here. Like I said, I'm going to scale it back a little bit, going to build the bankroll. We'll go to the level one lock here, Baylor minus 11 over Oklahoma.”
Baylor 76, Oklahoma 61 — Baylor defeated Oklahoma 76-61 (ESPN box score), covering -11 by a 15-point margin.
“bet online AG line for this one. Baylor minus 11 at home at the Ferrell Center versus Oklahoma. Give me the details on this one, Lee. Okay, as we know, Baylor, number two team in the country. And I think, you know, some years there's six, eight, ten teams. There's clearly two teams that are better than everyone right now unless there's injuries that take place. And it's Gonzaga and Baylor. They're ranked number two. They might be the best team in the country. Their third in adjusted offensive efficiency at 119.4, and sixth in defensive efficiency, third in points per game scored, 92.9 points per game. They also out-rebound opponents by 9.8 per game. So in their last game, their first conference game, they play Iowa State, just four for 19 from three-point land at 21%. 16 turnovers which is not normal for a really good team that shares the basketball and doesn normally turn it over I think they turn it around This is going to be a high game Oklahoma last game impressively at home beat West Virginia 75 Mojo Gibson, he scored 29 points, including, check this out, eight three-pointers. And OU shot 58% from three-point land. They were 14 for 24. You don't normally see that. You see that at home. You don't see that on the road. So I don't expect them to shoot anywhere close to above 50%. I'd be shocked if they shoot 40% on three-pointers in an unfamiliar building. So I like Baylor here. Like I said, I'm going to scale it back a little bit, going to build the bankroll. We'll go to the level one lock here, Baylor minus 11 over Oklahoma. All right, I like that one a lot. And, yeah, again, two teams that I'm very familiar with, obviously Baylor right here in my backyard. But the thing about it, both these teams, like you mentioned, score a lot of points. I know that Coach Drew's team gets on the boards, gets on the glass a lot, and also can dig in and play some defense when they need to and really make it tough on the other teams. So I think you're spot on with this one. It's an exciting game. I'll be in attendance at the game tonight. So very excited and fired up about that one. Stay until the end. Oh, yeah. It's 10, 12, 13 points. Wait until the final one so you can root in our level one lock here. Absolutely. I like it, man. Great stuff right there. And you know what, Lee? since there's been a couple bad days in a row. Why don't we go ahead? Why don't you give me one more, man? Why don't we turn our attention to the NBA? Usually we don't do this until the end of the week, but let's go ahead and do it. It's hump day. Give me one more. Let's look at the Warriors. Steph Curry's been playing really well. They're 4-3. They're at home playing the Clippers, 5-3 on the season. The bet on line, AG line for this game, the Clippers minus one versus the Dubs. How are you feeling this one? I feel pretty good about this. I'm going to give you one more, and I'm going to go with the Golden State Warriors. One of the keys is in basketball, don't go against hot teams. And Golden State is hot. Everyone remembers they lost the first couple games. Well, quietly built their record back to 4-3. Franchise high, 23 threes the other night. NBA season high, 41 assists. They're sharing the basketball. Steph Curry, as we know, a couple games ago, 62 points. This is career high. So he's red hot. The team feels good about themselves. And, you know, the Clippers, a couple guys banged up right now. So we're going to take Golden State here plus the one point at home. We think they get the win. And you're giving me one more. Wow, that's a good one. I like it. And, you know, when it comes to the Warriors and them kind of getting back on track, how important is it that Draymond Green is back and starting to get himself back into game shape? Well, I think he's the heart and soul of the team. You know, he might only have sometimes five points, but he'll get like seven rebounds, four assists, and he plays great defense and, you know, he hustles. And they needed him. When they were missing him to start the season, they were not the same. And they're starting to round in the shape. They're a fun team. You know, probably not going to win a championship without Klay Thompson, but they still think they'll have a winning record and make it in the playoffs. So we'll go Golden State at home here plus one.”
LA Clippers 108, Golden State 101 — The Clippers defeated Golden State 108-101 (ESPN box score); Golden State +1 lost by 7, did not cover.
“betonline line for this game Alabama minus two and a half versus Florida Super exciting game that they had last season high scoring man What's this one going to do? How do you think this game is going to shake out? Oh, yeah, that was one of the best games for college basketball season, if people remember it. Florida was down 21 points in that game. Good memory there, Q, and they came back and won the game 104-98. Don't see that usually a high scoring game in college basketball, but it was one for the ages. And Florida's dominated the series. They've won 14 of the last 16, in fact, 25 of the last 30 meetings between these two teams. Different for Florida, you know, Keontae Johnson, when he went down, now it's been, you know, quite a few weeks. This is a team that struggled. You know, this is one of their key players. They lost him. You know, they were worried about him. You know, they're trying to get things figured out, once he went down. But 6'10 forward transfer Colin Castleton from the University of Michigan has really come on. Here's a guy that's really starting to play well both ends of the floor here. They're also 2-0 in league play here. I think they found themselves here. So I'm going to take Florida here. Alabama, hey, give them credit. They beat Tennessee. maybe one of the biggest road wins that they've had. They beat them on the road. But Tennessee shot just 31.8% in that ballgame. I like Florida here.”
Alabama 86, Florida 71 — Alabama defeated Florida 86-71 (ESPN box score); Florida +2.5 lost by 15, did not cover.
“Kentucky 2-6 at home versus Vanderbilt, who's sitting there at 4-3. And I'll tell you, Lee, I never thought I would say Kentucky 2-6 as their record. But here it is. It's 2021, and that's what their record is, 2-6. So the bet on line, AG line for this game, Kentucky minus 12 versus Vanderbilt. What's your thoughts on this one? So longest losing streak of John Calipari's history. I would have thought, you know, maybe when he coached one of his other stops, the first of the season, maybe his first couple years coaching, he would have had a longer losing streak. But no, yeah, they are just 2-6. But there's one thing I like about this team, even when they don't shoot well and they're starting to shoot much better now, is they pound the glass. 18th in the country in offensive rebounds. So if you don't shoot well, you better follow your shot. Vanderbilt, just one game on the road this season. They're 4-3. People are thinking, oh, okay. You know, Jerry Steckhouse got them, you know, maybe playing some pretty good basketball. That one road game, they lost to Davidson by 20 points. They lost at home to Florida by 19 points in their 209th in turnovers So So guys we know Kentucky they pressure They play pressure defense They come up in half defense and really make just passing the ball tough sometimes And I think that matchup, sometimes it's not just, you know, records. And you say, how can Kentucky be favored by double digits? Well, they're going to get, I think, some easy baskets off turnovers here. Blowout special. Sometimes you've got to lay it if you want to play it. Kentucky, big tonight over Vanderbilt.”
Kentucky 77, Vanderbilt 74 — Kentucky defeated Vanderbilt 77-74 (ESPN box score); Kentucky -12 won by only 3, did not cover.
“bet online, AG line for this game, Utah, minus 4.5 versus the Nets, playing in Brooklyn. How are you feeling this one? Yeah, so some of these super teams, it takes them a while to start gelling. You know, we remember the Miami Heat down here, you know, when they had LeBron James and, you know, they had that cast together. They started off, I think they were like 8-8, 9-9 to start the season. So it can happen, but it might take Brooklyn even longer. So Kevin Durant is going to be out for, I think, four more games because of COVID tracing. And how big is his contribution to his team He averaging just 28 points per game This isn an 18 20 or 22 score per game This is a 28 score per game that they going to be missing On top of it, and I didn't hear anyone. I listen to all these telecasts, and they just don't mention it. And I don't know why. Spencer Dinwiddie, he's out. He's done for the year. He got hurt early in the season. and here's a guy in the first couple games of the year with averaging 20.6 points per game. I mean, this is a... He's not an all-star, but he's right at the next level. Almost made the all-star game last year, so he's out for the year. That's a combined almost 50 points that we'll be missing from the lineup tonight. Yeah, I was a game early. Went with Utah last week against Portland. Thought they'd start turning it on. Well, they did it a game later. They destroyed San Antonio on the road, 130-109. And Utah is one of these teams. They get on the road, and no one, it's under the radar. You know, if the Lakers, they heat Boston, one of those teams, Brooklyn now, if they were to win eight, nine, ten games in a row, everyone would be talking about it. Before even people notice, it takes Utah usually 10 or 12 wins in a row for people to talk about it. And why do I like them? Donovan Mitchell, finally, he's getting things going. 8 for 17 from the field and 5 for 9 from 3-point land in the last game against San Antonio for 22 points. Bogdanovich, I mean, one of the snipers in the NBA last game, 28 points. 10 for 13 shooting at 6 for 7 from 3-point land here. Level 2 lock here. I know the line looks crazy. Why should you level, lay 4.5 points on the road against Brooklyn? Well, because it's going to be a lock, level two lock, the Utah Jazz. They run their streak to two wins in a row. Look out. This could be one of those runs where they win eight or ten in a row. I like Utah big tonight.”
Brooklyn 130, Utah 96 — Brooklyn defeated Utah 130-96 (ESPN box score); Utah -4.5 lost outright.
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. Drake minus 10 versus Southern Illinois. What are your thoughts on the teams that, like I said, just played the day before? Yeah, and you're going to hear this over and over again in college basketball and in the NBA because of scheduling, because of COVID. You have back-to-backs where they play back-to-back days or they will play, they will have an off day and then play a day after that. So they did play yesterday. Drake moved to 12-0 with a 73-55 win in that game over Southern Illinois. But Southern Illinois is a solid team. I mean, they were 7-0 to start the season for losing late last week and then also against Drake. But they have some decent wins over North Dakota and Butler. Drake's only win that's significant is North Dakota. they have a point guard kid named Roman Roman Penn this is kids averaging 12 and a half points six assists shooting 60% generally you see shooting percentages for point guards come down to the the low to maybe mid 40's so this kid's on fire right now tough to to keep shooting at a 60% clip so yeah I think Drake is a great story at 12 and 0 but I think the pressure will be ratcheted up after playing same team back-to-back days usually the losing team can make defensive adjustments here uh and and they usually play better and and play with a little more energy um a lot's at stake here i i like southern illinois shocker i think they take this game down to the final couple possessions here wrong team favorite southern illinois plus to 10 points gets the w i like it i like it a lot”
55-86 — Drake beat Southern Illinois 86-55 on Jan 4, 2021; Southern Illinois +10 lost by 31, missing the number (ESPN box score).
“Betonline.ag line for this game. Atlanta minus six and a half versus the Knicks. What are your thoughts on this one? So every year, so I live in Miami, a lot of East Coast people, a lot of New Yorkers and people from New Jersey. And I'll hear every year over the last almost 20 years now from Knicks fans. They start off the season, you know, they're 3-3, 4-2, and I'll get emails, hey, you know, the Knicks, I think they can slip into the seventh or eighth seed in the playoffs. And I'm like, yeah, right. I mean, you look at their personnel. So that's a typical Knicks fan just trying to find any sliver of hope. So, yeah, are they a little bit better? Yeah, only because they've got a coach, you know, that has a pulse. Their coaches, the last four or five coaches, have been horrendous, but they're in a bad situation here for scheduling dynamics. Four straight road games. Has to wear on you. They will be without their second-leading scorer, Obi Toppin. He is out for their game. Also, Alec Burks, who's had a really good start as a shooting guard this year. Game-time decision here at Atlanta. I think they're undervalued here after losing Saturday night at home to Cleveland. Close game, but they did blow a double-digit lead. But before that, they had beaten Brooklyn, 114-96, and then lost the game before that. An absolute scoring fest, 145-141 to Brooklyn in back-to-back games. But before that, they had scored, listen to this, 124 versus Chicago, 122 versus Memphis, and 128 versus Detroit. This is an offensive scoring machine versus a tired New York Knicks team here. Sorry, all my friends. You're going to start losing, and then I never hear from them again the rest of the season. Blow out special Atlanta by double digits over the New York Knicks.”
108-113 — New York beat Atlanta 113-108 on Jan 4, 2021; Atlanta Hawks moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line is Toronto minus three versus Boston. How are you feeling with this game? I feel good. And, you know, we've been knocking down these locked plays. And I think the public's going to be on Boston, see that they're 4-3 against a Toronto squad that's just 1-4. But remember, Boston knocked Toronto out of the playoffs. And the NBA is about situations, and the NBA is about picking your spots. If you're playing four or five games a night, you're probably not going to win. You've got to be patient. There's some nights I even pass on the NBA. But this has some great situational plays here. As I mentioned, Toronto got knocked out. So they're 1-4, must-win game for them. I think they've been pointing for this game. I think that's one of the reasons they've had problems this year. They were probably thinking about this game too much. So even though the offense hasn't been great, a couple positives. Fred Van Vliet, he is now actually the number one scorer so far this season for the Toronto Raptors. So he's emerged, still very good defense, number five. team as far as defensive efficiency here. And just think that also Boston had to play last night in a really tough game here against Detroit. They need Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown to play well every night here to win without Kimball Walker, who's still going to be out for another couple weeks. So I like the scheduling dynamics with Boston having to play last night. I like the fact that Toronto, this is the game that they want. We hit on one last week where we had a team that was looking to get a return. Portland wanted to get a little rematch there against the Lakers. I think this is another one here. I like Toronto minus three. Level two lock to start the week. Toronto minus three over Boston.”
114-126 — Boston beat Toronto 126-114 on Jan 4, 2021; Toronto -3 lost by 12, missing the number (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for this game. Northwestern minus three and a half versus Auburn. What say you on this one? Well, I think the public's going to be on Northwestern here. They're going to – people love to play against teams that lose their head coaches going into bowls. But last year, if you did that, you were living under a bridge. So last year, teams that lost their coaches going into bowls, believe it or not, went 5-1 against the spread, think that Auburn's the better team. Think about it. I mean, recruited talent. Auburn recruits a different level athlete than Northwestern. Northwestern started the year great, but limp down the stretch, they have no firepower here. Offensive and defensive lines here for Auburn should dominate. They've got better running backs. And I also think when Bo Nix, when you watch him, when he has time, that running game gets going, he's got maybe one of the top two or three receiver trios in the country. So, yeah, I give Northwestern credit. played hard actually gave Ohio State a game for a half but yeah they're not getting back up for this game here their favorite as an underdog Pat Fitzgerald is great but isn as a favorite he just doesn get the job done here Without their head coach these kids for Auburn are going to want to play hard They want to cement their starting jobs, and the backups, they'd like to get more playing time here. Wrong team is favored. I like Auburn here. They beat Northwestern 27-23 straight up.”
19-35 — Northwestern beat Auburn 35-19 in the 2021 Citrus Bowl on Jan 1, 2021; Auburn moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“Betonline.ag line for this game. Utah, minus three and a half versus Phoenix. This is actually the last NBA game of 2020. So if you're trying to get a little bit of action in right at the tail end of the year, this is the game for you. So, Lee, how are you feeling this one? Good. I mean, this is a game that can lead you right up into the shooting off of fireworks at midnight. So the game starts at 9 o'clock Eastern. Donovan Mitchell against Devin Booker, two of the best young guards going head-to-head. And here's what's interesting about this game. So Phoenix, they finished on an absolute roll in the bubble. won every single game against the spread in the bubble. So they finished off that part of their year strong. They come into this year, they're 3-1. So they're making noise. Devin Booker, they put together some real nice young players here. Love this kid, Cameron Johnson, 6'8 forward. Last two games, coming off the bench, he's put up 21 and 18 points. So Mitchell against Booker is exciting. I think Donovan Mitchell here has something to prove here. back-to-back games he shot less than 35 percent also only 22 percent from the three-point line has been Mitchell so far this year so we're not talking about a guy just been in the league one or two years he's a guy that's been in the league he's starting to come into his own uh he knows this is a big game uh the upstart Phoenix Suns are going to want to prove something I think he's going to be the guy that steps up here take nothing away from Devin Booker but also the Coaching staff for Utah could be the difference. Quinn Snyder, he knows how to defend Jai Crowder. Crowder played for him, so that might be an advantage here. And even the centers, they should go at it. You've got the old guard, maybe the best defensive center, Rudy Gobert, against DeAndre Ayton. He's one of the best young centers. So some great matchups here, but experience, a team that knows how to play better defense. defense is always important in a big game in a showdown in Utah, in Vivid Smart home arena. Give me the Utah Jazz blowout special minus three and a half. They should win this game by eight to ten points.”
106-95 — Phoenix beat Utah 106-95 on Dec 31, 2020, winning outright; Utah -3.5 lost (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line here is San Francisco plus six at home against Seattle. So public's going to be on Seattle figuring, hey, they've got a chance to move all the way up here, maybe get the number one seed if everything goes right. But Green Bay's going to win their game against Chicago. The Seahawks have already clinched the NFC West. They're going to host a playoff game next weekend no matter what. Yeah, can they get the number one seed? Yeah, but the 49ers don't have to allow that to happen regardless of the Green Bay at Chicago results. So I do think off a real hard-fought division game last week against the Rams, Pete Carroll and his staff and players, they're probably on the right to have a little bit of a down performance here. He's one of those coaches that can play a week or two and get his players up, but doesn't have the talent to stay on a run like that. And I think, you know, he might end up pulling some of the starters in this game. So if he finds out Green Bay, you know, they take the lead or, you know, they've already put up a win here. You know, he maybe plays his starters a series or a quarter. So, hey, the reason you don't sign guys like Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey to these huge contracts. Just look at Jeff Wilson last week for San Francisco. 22 carries, 183 yards. San Francisco's getting healthy, especially at tight end. They got George Kittle back. I like San Francisco. Plus six points. They might even win this game here outright. Worst case scenario, it's probably a one-possession game. So give me San Francisco plus six here.”
23-26 — Seattle beat San Francisco 26-23 on Jan 3, 2021; SF 49ers +6 lost by only 3, covering the spread (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for this game. West Virginia, minus seven, over Army. What's your thoughts? Give them to me. There's nothing like ending the week, the month, and the year with a nice big win. And boy do I have a big win for you here So West Virginia they think they going to play Tennessee West Virginia can be excited about playing Tennessee and maybe even less excited about playing Army. Army was left out of the bowls originally, and they were only added after Tennessee had to beg off because of COVID cases. So they feel disrespected. Number one, that's important. You need motivation in bowls. Also, check this out, and this angle has worked great for me. Some of my biggest releases for my clients over the 28 years is playing on triple option teams like Air Force, Army, and Navy against teams and defenses that have not faced triple options. So West Virginia, if you look at the schedule, and I look back, they have not played an option offense, a triple option, since 2015 when they played Georgia Southern. But that was with a different coaching staff. This is something you just can't prepare for on the fly. So not one defensive staffer for West Virginia has ever faced the option. I went back 10 years, and I'm talking about defensive coordinator, line coach, linebackers coach, even check the cornerbacks or even the safeties coach. Nothing. And here's maybe the icing on the cake. People think, okay, well, West Virginia, oh, you know, they can probably run and pass on them. Army, yeah, they don't face passing-type offenses in practice because they face their own players, but their pass defense, surprisingly number one in the country, allowing only 149 yards per game. If Army gets up 7 points, 10 points, this game is over. Why do I say that? Normally, there's 10 to 12 possessions in a college football game, sometimes upward of the 14, 15 possessions. When you play Army, Navy, or Air Force, there might only be six or seven possessions. Teams, then they start pressing here. So I love Army plus the seven. This is going to be a level three lock.”
21-24 — West Virginia beat Army 24-21 in the 2020 Liberty Bowl on Dec 31, 2020; Army +7 lost by only 3, covering the spread (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.ag line for this game is Tennessee minus four against Missouri. Both two 6-0 teams. How are you feeling this one? Well, I think it's going to be an interesting game. Usually these are teams that the game doesn't mean a whole lot because Missouri, quite frankly, hasn't been great. But Quinzel Martin, he took over the team last year and in his first season went 20 and 13. I think they're going to be even better and better. Remember this. You've got to dig deep. You got to spend time if you want to handicap and you want to win He was the coach remember at Tennessee from 2011 to 2014 So has something to prove here Tennessee last year just 17 and 14 after two back 25-win seasons. So I like the matchup and how these two teams match up against each other. And it favors Missouri, in my opinion. Missouri plays a three-guard offense. They have this point guard named Xavier Pinson. He's the attacker. He averages over 14 points per game, also hits over 84% from the free throw line when he gets there. And the two marksmen from the outside in the street guard offense are Mark and Drew Smith. No, they're not related, but they actually have similar numbers, almost the same amount as far as shooting three-pointers, and also hit exactly 87% from the free throw line here. Missouri beat highly regarded Illinois December 12th. Tennessee, listen to the four teams that they've played of late. App State, Tennessee Tech, St. Joe's in South Carolina. Upstate since December 12th. Wrong team favorite. Missouri outright plus the fourth.”
53-73 — Tennessee beat Missouri 73-53 on Dec 30, 2020; Missouri +4 lost by 20, missing the number (ESPN box score).
“bet online AG line for this game. Indiana, minus 5.5 versus Penn State. What are your thoughts on this one? Okay, so both teams actually lost to Illinois in their last game. Right. But Penn State's defense, just not good, allowing 74.5 points per game. That ranks 256 out of about 350 teams playing Division I college basketball. Yeah, Penn State does sink a lot of three-pointers, 9.8 three-pointers per game. But remember, they're playing on a court they're not familiar with. So Assembly Hall, one of those weird stadiums you're playing even though no fans. Just with the shooting optics, from what I hear from a lot of people, and I've been in there very, very tough. So you can't count on shooting three-pointers on the road here. Indiana's defense, strong, allowing just 63.3 points per game. That ranks 59th in the country. At least one of these two teams does something. Well, I thought watching the Indiana game, watching the entire game, that they just couldn't match up with Illinois' strength inside. Illinois has a bunch of players, and their team we're going to watch down the road. They've got some players that are like men. Indiana could match up with them. I don think the same problem is posed by Penn State here Also Indiana I like the way they recover after a straight loss 7 against the spread here We going with a level one lock here Indiana minus 5 at home I think they win this game by double digits over Penn State.”
87-85 — Indiana beat Penn State 87-85 in overtime on Dec 30, 2020; Indiana -5.5 won by only 2, missing the number (ESPN box score).
“bet online ag line for this game is iowa minus 10 and a half northwestern uh what are your thoughts on this one wow i mean so so what happened before the season everyone thought that you know this iowa team was going to be a team maybe makes the final four they're ranked in the top five, and things started off great, and then they lost road loss in their Big Ten opener to Minnesota. So they're just one-on-one right now. Northwestern, you know, this is a team that nothing was really expected. People thought this team would be lucky to go 500. They've improved to 4-0 in the Big Ten already. They rallied on Saturday. beautiful 71-70 home win over number 23 Ohio State. And they're playing really well. This kid named Miller Kopp, he had 23 points in that game. The junior forward, I think he's the key to them playing so well, averaging over right now 55% from the field. Also, Boo Booey, another key contributor, contributing over 50% on three-pointers. And Iowa, you know, I just think sometimes, you know, teams, you know, they just go into a little bit of a rut. Luke Garza, their star, I think he's one of the top players in Division I basketball, the senior center, went only 11 for 27 from the field in their Friday loss. He did finish with 32 points, but I think he's got to share the ball a little bit more here. They're also turning the ball over a little more than normal. So I think they need to share the ball. And Northwestern, 5-1 against the spread the last six games. Also, 4-1 against the spread the last five games following the straight-up win here. I just think it's too many points to lay. Double digits to a team that's hot and believes in themselves. I think this is going to be a one- or two-possession game here. Give me Northwestern plus 10.5. The wrong team is favored, Q.”
72-87 — Iowa beat Northwestern 87-72 on Dec 29, 2020; Northwestern +10.5 lost by 15, missing the number (ESPN box score).
“the bet online AG line for this game. Boston minus one versus the Pacers. How are you feeling this one? I feel good, real good about this game here. And we going to go to a game here where Indiana getting one point The betonline line is playing at home against Boston These two teams did play two nights ago Indiana won the game 108-107. In that game, Boston actually shot 50.6% for the night and still lost. Indiana shot just 26.9% from three-point land. I'm watching it, and sometimes a team doesn't pass the eye test. And what I wrote down in some of my notes watching the game, Daniel Theus and Tristan Thompson, they just don't go together here on the front court. And even Brad Stevens, you've got to watch some interviews after the games, he said he's not committed to that front court. So I think there's just no chemistry here between these two guys. I think they're going to end up moving one of those two guys into off the bench. and also like the Indianapolis Pacer line and front line, and also the way they switch off on defense here. T.J. Warren, he's a monster. Victor Oladipo, he missed the end of last year. They have so many guys that are between like 6'4 and 6'8. They have the Holiday Brothers. They also have Doug McDermott and also Sabonis, you know, bombing from the outside. So this is a team that's under the radar. They are playing at home here. Getting one point here, my level two lock, I think the Indiana Pacers here take this game. They beat Boston here by at least five to ten points.”
116-111 — Boston beat Indiana 116-111 on Dec 29, 2020; Indiana +1 lost outright (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for Buffalo versus New England is Buffalo minus seven versus the Patriots. What are your thoughts on this Monday night football game? So it's a changing of the guard. And if Buffalo had never beat New England, then, you know, you might still say, hey, this is going to be a tough, tough situation even for Buffalo. But Buffalo did win the first game this year, and they won 24-21, so they've already gotten over the hump here. There are some question marks. We don't know what's going to happen. You know, the New England season's over. They're out of the playoffs. Does Bill Belichick play Cam Newton? Does he give Jerick Stidham an audition tonight? That could happen here. But there are some things that lean me here for Buffalo. Four wins in a row six straight covers in a row The only reason I won go all in on this game is we have both receivers for Buffalo as game time decisions Brown and Diggs When both of these two guys start in a game Buffalo almost unstoppable. These are long ball threats. These are guys that can catch the ball, make a move, go 70 to 80 yards. But if one or both don't play, you know, when a guy's questionable, he goes out with an injury, gets nicked up during the game, it could affect the game. But they do have an advantage over New England without Stephen Gilmore. He is out for the rest of the season. New England's all-pro cornerback, so I think that advantage is something you've got to take advantage of here, and also Josh Allen really matured and developed. He is the franchise quarterback now, and Buffalo, except for the wide receiver position, these two guys, as questionable, they've been reasonably healthy here, so that's important when you get late in the season, so I'm going to take Buffalo. I'm going to lay the seven points here.”
38-9 — Buffalo beat New England 38-9 on Dec 28, 2020; Buffalo -7 covered (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for this game is a pick'em UCSB vs Cal Irvine how you feeling this one? Okay so this is a situational play we're going to see more situations this year than we've ever seen because of the pandemic so UCSB played at Cal Irvine last night they playing him again tonight they staying the night back So you know just it the average person is going to look at this game and they're going to see, oh, Cal Irvine, they were getting two. They win the game last night, 75-56. Oh, I'll take them again. So that's human nature is to take the team that won the first game. But what happens is players, after they beat a team, it's the let-up. It's tough to get back up. They were the underdog, was Cal Irvine, yesterday. Why? Because UCSB was averaging 87 points per game going into the game last night. That's 24th in the country. They can score. They rebound. They were averaging 39 rebounds per game. They were averaging 22 assists per game. So Irvine's up for the game. And what happens? They played great. They played better than normal offensive on offensive side of the court. And then on the defensive side, they held UCSB, which is a good three-point shooting team, which normally hits over nine three-pointers per game to three three-pointers. The Gauchos shot just three for 25 from the field last night. I think they just went in overconfident. Now you get a team that's going to play with urgency, UCSB. I think they're the better team. Line to pick them. You don't have to lay two points here. I think they win this game by six to eight points.”
69-73 — UC Irvine beat UC Santa Barbara 73-69 on Dec 28, 2020; UCSB pick'em lost outright (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line. Clippers, minus one and a half versus the Nuggets. What say you in this game? So I'm going to make everyone really have to pay attention the entire day in the NBA on Christmas Day Christmas is synonymous with the NBA and we always get the best games on Christmas Day and they did it again, and I'm going to give you the last game. So you've got to stay up a little bit later. It starts at 10 o'clock Eastern time, and wrong team favorite. Denver is getting one and a half points at home. So they lose last night 124 to 122 to Sacramento. One of the reasons, shot just eight for 29. That's 27% from three-point land. They were out-rebounded also, which usually doesn't happen. This is a very good rebounding team, 53-45. And one of their two stars, Jamal Murray, just one for nine from the field, including 0-5 from three-point range last night. Gary Harris was back. He missed most of the playoffs last year. He looked good. I was watching him closely. He played in preseason, and he's almost in midseason form, which is important. They needed him without him in the playoffs. They couldn't quite get over the hump and beat the Lakers. And I also like Paul Mills, no separate power forward, but I think eventually what they're going to need to do is develop bowl. They played him a lot in preseason. They played him last year some in the play-in games and during the end of the regular season in the bubble. But they've got to start playing him more. They didn't play him in the opener. If I'm Denver, you've got to find something to get over the hump if you want to beat the Lakers. And he has that type of just all the different tools that can give the Lakers probably his height. He can score from the outside, shot-blocking capabilities, can run the floor. So that's what I would do. And the Clippers have to be feeling good about themselves to beat the Lakers. Everything went right in their opening game, went over the Lakers where they won. And they led from wire to wire here. Wrong team favorite. Denver wins this game plus one and a half.”
108-121 — The Clippers beat the Nuggets 121-108 on Dec 25, 2020; Denver +1.5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line is Buffalo minus five versus Marshall in the Chameleon Bowl in Montgomery, the second bowl game in Montgomery. How are you feeling this one? Okay, so I'm going to lay off the bowl game for today, for Christmas Eve day. Just don't like it. Sometimes if you don't like it, you've got to lay off of it. And some of your best winnings as far as building the bankroll is not playing a game just because it's there. Just not playing a game a lot of times on Monday nights just because it's there. You don't chase. So we're up big. Just don't like the matchup between Hawaii and Houston. I think it's one you watch for next year. I'll take notes. A lot of young guys will play in that game. Houston had a lot of guys that tapped out due to COVID or get ready for the draft. And I like the camellia ball being played in Montgomery, Alabama on Christmas Day. So, yeah, Buffalo, they are laying five points against Marshall. Both teams off letdown losses. Both teams lost their conference championship here. You've got to battle Buffalo's third-ranked offense against Marshall's number one scoring defense. I just love Jarrett Patterson. He did sprain his ankle in the last game, but they said he's good to go. Here's a guy. They list him, I think, at 5'7". he's closer to 5'5", hit 1,072 yards in just six games, averaged over 7.5 yards per carry, scored 19 touchdowns every one remembers that 400-plus-yard rushing game. Marshall has trouble with the off running attack of a team like Buffalo And then Grant Wells the quarterback for Marshall last two games and he was really good to start the season He's a redshirt freshman. Last two games, he fell off the cliff, five interceptions against Rice, and he started 0-10. And I'm talking nothing was even close to completing a pass against UAB in that 0-10 start and that 22-13 loss. So I see a team Buffalo just had one bad half against Ball State, lost the conference championship here, and I think they get back on track here. I'm going to lay the five. I think they double that. I think they went by double digits, 34-24 over Marshall.”
17-10 — Buffalo beat Marshall 17-10 in the 2020 Camellia Bowl; Buffalo -5 covered (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for this game. Miami, minus five versus the Pelicans. What's your thoughts on this one? Give it to me. So, you're going to have to put away the presents. So, if you're riding the bikes or the new car or opening up gifts, you've got to do it early. Because this game starts at 12 noon Eastern. So, we'll give you the last game. We're going to give you the first game. And this is a game I love. Miami laying five against New Orleans Now New Orleans looked pretty good in the opener I mean they looked real good last night I like their starting lineup Steven Adams at center He comes over Zion Williamson is healthy Lonzo Ball, not in love with Lonzo Ball. He's a weak link there. Eric Bledsoe's added from Milwaukee and Brandon Ingram. Problem here is the bench. They only have two guys, I think, that are players on the bench, and that's Josh Hart and J.J. Redick. J.J. Redick had 23 points last night's game. I don't think he's going to do that again. Miami has always been able to lock him down. They're usually able to lock down three-point shooters. Now, Miami lost to Orlando last night. Some people are saying, oh, you know, maybe the hangover from, you know, going to the finals. Yeah, they also didn't play most of their key players much in the two preseason games. Orlando has always been a thorn in Miami's side. So, I think Miami, though, will be ready for this game. an awful loss, a road loss. Eric Spolster's team, when coming home last year, 7-1 against the spread off that road loss when they're a 3-8 point favorite. So it falls right in between there. They're laying five points. I'm a Miami Heat season ticket holder. I go against them often in certain situations, but this is a situation you want to back them. They usually come out and win the game easy. I like Miami by double digits in the opening game on Christmas Day.”
98-111 — Miami beat New Orleans 111-98 on Dec 25, 2020; Miami -5 covered (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for Indiana minus eight versus Northwestern. How are you feeling about this game? I'm feeling pretty good because I think it's going to be a tight game, getting eight points. This is the conference opener here for Indiana. And Northwestern has already played a conference game where they shocked Michigan State. Most of the preseason polls had Northwestern finishing dead last at 14th And what do they do right out of the gate They they shocked Michigan state So this is a team that is not highly rated And sometimes it takes two or three big wins until people start taking notice. Indian is okay. I mean, they're, they're decent, you know, but Northwestern already has proven themselves in one conference game, winning 79, 65 over Michigan state. maybe one of the top two or three teams in the conference. And Indiana's got to be maybe a little bit tight. Yeah, okay, they beat Butler. But I told everyone, Butler isn't that good a team. So now you get a team that has confidence. They're shooting the ball extremely well. I mean, they outshot the Spartans 52% to 38%. They play defense. And then also Northwestern, they're currently, they can score. If you can score, you've got a chance to cover as an underdog. They're 14th in the nation in points per game at 90.4 points per game, and also 47th in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing just 59 points per game here. Indiana, okay, they shot out Butler, 53 to 39%, but I told everyone Butler isn't that good. Okay, they're averaging 73 points per game, but they also allow 61 points per game. They haven't faced real tough competition here in Indiana. One in five against the spread here in the last six games against Northwestern. They played last year, and Northwestern was getting double digits. They took the game right down to the wire, only lost by four, 66-62. I think we're going to see something like a 76-72 final. Northwestern's getting eight points here. Like I said, I think they'll cover. They might even win the game outright. Northwestern, plus eight, wrong team favorite.”
74-67 — Northwestern beat Indiana 74-67 on Dec 23, 2020; Northwestern +8 covered by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline AG line for Milwaukee, minus four versus the Celtics. Lee, this NBA action, how are you feeling this one? I feel good after last night opening with the Brooklyn win. Another team identified that's going to come out right out of the gate. Guns a-blazing. It's going to be the Milwaukee Bucks. So they did make some changes. They moved Eric Bledsoe and George Hill, two guys that can score and play defense. Bledsoe more of a score, George Hill more of a defensive starboard, and they moved him for Drew Holiday. Drew Holiday is a great, maybe one of the top third players on any team. So now they've got the big three. They've got the Greek freak, they've got Chris Middleton, and now they've got Holiday. they're going to be going up against a Boston team that's without Kemba Walker. He's out within the injury until probably at least early to mid-January. Tristan Thompson was acquired. He's listed as a game-time decision. And they also lost a bunch of good guys off the bench, guys that would keep them in game. So I just don't – yeah, okay, they brought in George Teague, but George Teague handling the ball compared to those two guys that they lost. I just think it's too much. So, you know, this is a team here that is also without Gordon Hayward or the Celtics. Enos Kanter moved on. Brad Wanamaker moved on. And all you brought in was Tristan Thompson and Jeff Teague. So I think there's going to be, you know, maybe a little bit of feeling out with Jeff Teague and his new teammates. And two teams that lost to the Miami Heat were dispatched in the playoffs But I just think Milwaukee is right there with the best of the best in the East And like I said they just went absolutely cold in the playoffs Give me Milwaukee here, minus the four. They make a statement. I think they're going to win this game by double digits over Boston in Boston.”
121-122 — Boston beat Milwaukee 122-121 on Dec 23, 2020 on a Jayson Tatum buzzer-beater; the Bucks' 1-point margin fell short of the -4 spread (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line. Memphis, minus 8.5 versus Florida Atlantic. This is the bowl game here. How are you feeling this one? What are your thoughts? I feel real good. So one of these two teams I know extremely well. It's Florida Atlantic. I go to the spring games. In fact, I know one of their starters, Father Real Well, I grew up playing football with him when I was little in the youth league. We've stayed in contact. So I know their personnel extremely well. A lot of them hail from South Florida. So after eight games, FAU head coach Willie Taggart, he still can't decide on a quarterback. So they lost their all-conference quarterback. He was dismissed from the team. who's a transfer from Oklahoma, played one year, was super throwing, running the football. They're rotating two guys. I mean, they're gaining only 328 yards per game. This is the era of modern football. Everyone gains 400 to 500 yards per game. They're throwing for just 143 yards per game and averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt. Now on the other side of the field Memphis led by a six senior in Brady White I think he going to be an NFL quarterback So far this year Memphis they thrown for 28 touchdowns They averaging eight yards per attempt So FIU has some nice numbers on defense, but the problem is they haven't played anyone. So they're ranked 13th. This is some of the teams that they've played this year. Charlotte, Marshall, University of Texas, San Antonio, FIU, and UMass, maybe two of the three worst teams in college football, Western Kentucky, Georgia Southern, which doesn't even throw the football, and Southern Miss, which is finishing maybe their worst season maybe in the last 10 to 15 years. And Southern Miss put up 45 points on this FAU defense. So I'm looking at an offense led by Brady White in Memphis. They're going to be maybe, you know, probably auditioning for NFL scouts here, and they're going to throw the ball. A lot of times in bowl games, you have a lot of throwing, a lot of scoring. FAU can't score. They don't pass the eye test. I've been telling a lot of people who are my clients and listeners out there, Boise State, one of those teams, didn't pass the eye test. They get beaten their conference championship by San Jose State. Told everyone yesterday, they said, Tulane, playing in cold weather, playing with a quarterback not a great passer against a team that can throw the ball and is used to the elements. Memphis is going to sling the ball around. It's the haves, and Memphis is still real good, even though they had a couple guys opt out running back to receivers, versus a have-not FIU, which does not pass the eye test. Memphis, this is a level-free lock. You can take it to the bank right before Christmas. Fill up your stockings. Memphis minus eight and a half.”
25-10 — Memphis beat Florida Atlantic 25-10 in the inaugural Montgomery Bowl on Dec 23, 2020; Memphis -8.5 covered a 15-point margin (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline AG line for Tulane is minus two versus Nevada. How are you feeling this game? Well, from Tulane, not very good. Okay, so Tulane, okay, can get, you know, I've been to New Orleans. You've been to New Orleans. It can get into the 50s once in a while, the 40s. You're not going to see 20, 30-degree weather there. They are a long way from New Orleans. They're going to be playing in Boise, Idaho. Temperature's going to be in the 30s. It's going to be windy. it's going to be between 15 and 25 mile an hour, the wind. So you know that they haven't played in any, I've looked at their schedule, any type of games where wind could be a factor and altitude. I mean, everything's going against them. And who are they playing? They're playing the Nevada Wolfpack. This is a team that's thrown on 62% of the downs. And they were the fourth past heaviest in the nation behind some of the teams you would recognize Mississippi State, Purdue, teams like that. And how do they do it? They have a quarterback, Carson Strong, one of the top ten quarterbacks in the country. He's got two receivers, 6'4", and 6'2". Back to one of them, Michael, in the first couple rounds. He's got a tight end that's 6'6". Well, Tulane's defense, I mean, this is a team that plays against teams like Army, Navy, and whenever they play a team that can throw the football like Houston, SMU, and Central Florida, they give up 49, 37, and 51 points. Those three offenses rank 14th, 2nd, and 32nd. Nevada ranks number 10. I think Nevada, this is easy peasy. Take the two points. Wrong team is favored. I have Nevada winning this game outright, and it shouldn't even be close.”
38-27 — Nevada beat Tulane 38-27 in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Dec 22, 2020; Nevada +2 covered by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for Brooklyn is minus seven and a half versus Golden State. Man, what's going down with this game, Lee? Okay, so obviously Thompson's hurt for Golden State. But some people are thinking, okay, they still got some players. All they have is three players. Steph Curry, great offensive player, doesn't play much defense. Kelly Obrey he going to be decent Andrew Wiggins offensive score nothing else no defense And then they have a bunch of castoffs guys that you just pick up a bunch of spare parts Now, I'm from Miami. I love the Miami Heat, but let me tell you something. I am scared of one team and maybe one team only in the East. It's the Brooklyn Nets because everyone knows. Now all of a sudden you've got the big two back. But besides these two guys and those two guys, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, those two guys average almost 60 points per game when they played a full season. You have guys like Spencer Dinwiddie. Here's a guy who averaged 20 points a game. No one talks about him. You have Joe Harris, averages 14.5 points per game, shoots over 42% from three-point line. You don't think he's going to have open looks. And then, you know, if they don't play great defense for the starters, DeAndre Jordan in the middle, cleaning it up, playing defense, getting rebounds. They're backups. I mean, this team is set up perfectly for a championship run to play the Lakers. They've got Tyler Johnson and Bruce Brown, two defensive-minded guards. Landry Shemmuth, he's great. Torian Prince, Carlos LaVert, he started last year and averaged 18.7 points per game. And the starting center from last year, Jared Allen averaged 11 points and over nine and a half rebounds. Those are all the guys coming off the bench. Their backups would be an average team in the NBA here. They're laying seven and a half at home. By the time we get to week two or week three, this line could be 12, 13 points. I don't think Golden State's going to be any good. Blow out city. Sometimes you've got to lay it if you want to play it. The Brooklyn Nets, minus seven and a half, big over Golden State opening night.”
125-99 — Brooklyn beat Golden State 125-99 on Dec 22, 2020, the NBA season opener; Brooklyn Nets -7.5 covered a 26-point margin (ESPN box score).
“bet online AG line is Virginia Commonwealth minus 20 versus James Madison. And the total points are 144. What say you on this game? And give us your level lock as well. Okay, so the bottom line is once in a while we find games where the totals are off. And yesterday we gave you Bryant and UMass. It was 161. We said it's going to end up somewhere between 180 and 200. It slowed down, and it still ended up 181. We won the total by 20 points. I found a total where there's something wrong here. And like I said, the odds makers, they can't be right on every single game. So we're looking at James Madison first. So they played, look at these powerhouse teams, Limestone, Norfolk State, Radford, and Alice Lloyd College. That's not Alice Cooper's college. That's Alice Lloyd College. I don't even know where that is. The only team that I'm familiar with and you get to see on a regular basis is East Carolina. They lost that game 73-64. So I'm watching this team, and I've seen them in two games this year, not a high score against anyone decent. They're a 20-point underdog. They're playing Virginia Commonwealth, and Virginia Commonwealth has played a good schedule, and they still haven't scored. I mean, they played West Virginia. They only scored 66, lose by 12. Played Memphis. They win that game. They scored 70. That was one of their best games. They lose to Penn State, 72-69. They're not going over. They even played Old Dominion, and they did win the game 77-54, but they played pretty darn good defense. Didn't go near the total. So the total on this game is 144. I think it's going to be in the low 130. So I got this total off by 8 to 10 points. We're going to go under 144, just like yesterday, block number two. We're going to look to keep our record going here on these locks. And like I said, I don't see it going near the 144 total. So like I said, they made a mistake. We're going to take advantage of it for a second day in a row in a total as our lock, lock number two. There you go. The under 144 level two lock.”
82-81 — VCU beat James Madison 82-81 on Dec 22, 2020; the 163 combined points went over the Under 144 total (ESPN box score).
“betonline line is Butler minus nine versus Southern Illinois What do you think Lee How are you feeling this one Okay so the public is going to be I think squarely on Butler People know about Butler. It's a famous field house where they filmed the movie Hoosiers. They do a lot of damage in the tournament. They routinely do really well in their conference. But here's the problem. They're going to see, yeah, they played Villanova last week and Indiana on Saturday, and were fairly competitive in both games. Now they're going to face a Missouri Valley Conference opponent, Southern Illinois, a lot of people don't know anything about. They are 5-0, really haven't played a tough schedule. But this is a team that plays defense, giving up less than 66 points in all five games. They have two sophomores. So what happens with sophomores, you see the most growth from freshman to sophomore year. This kid, Ben Harvey, averaging 16 points per game, shooting almost 54% from behind the three-point line, and a surprising sophomore, a kid named Marcus Domusk. Marcus Domusk, a kid who redshirted at Eastern Illinois. and no one knows anything about him, had not played here yet, but averaging 16 points so far this year, and he's a rim protector, already averaging 1.8 blocks per game. Butler also 15 and 14 turnovers in the last two games, so line is nine points. Butler's looking ahead to conference schedule down the road. I just think Southern Illinois plus nine, live dog here. Wrong teams favored. They cover here.”
76-73 — Southern Illinois beat Butler 76-73 on Dec 21, 2020; Southern Illinois +9 covered by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for this game. Pittsburgh, minus 14.5 versus Cincinnati. Again, Monday night football action. Lee, this looks like a blowout in the making. How are you feeling about this one? I'm feeling the same exact way here, Q. The coach here for Cincinnati, Zach Taylor, he's going to probably remind you of David Chula, possibly the worst coach of all time in Cincinnati Bengals history, Maybe one of the worst 10 coaches all time in the history of the NFL. So Zach Taylor, not a real good start here. A horrible start. Maybe even worse than David Shula. He's 4-24-1 straight up during this last five-game losing streak where they lost Joe Burrow. The offense averaging just 10 points per game. I mean he making Marvin Lewis his coach the head coach for him look like he pretty smart here So the problem here for Cincinnati is no offense They going to face a defense that angry after losing a couple games They already faced him in Week 10 and the Steelers won 36 And it wasn't like Pittsburgh even played that great in this game. Looks like Ryan Finley will start this game here. I think the NFL obviously made a mistake. They scheduled Monday night football here. They were going to showcase Joe Burrow, but Bengals are not ready for prime time. Pittsburgh is. Pittsburgh's one of these teams. They were playing great. They had a couple weeks. Three or four weeks didn't play well. Starting to play better again. Want to make a statement. Want to get that division title tonight taken care of. I think they win the game 31-10. Man, I'll tell you what. The Cincinnati Bengals are the ultimate get-right, aren't they? Like you mentioned, Pittsburgh dropping a couple games in a row. Oh, don't worry. Cincinnati's up next on the schedule, and they'll make you feel real good about yourself. Yeah, and here's the thing also. With Joe Burrow coming back next year, they're going to be much better. They're going to draft a bunch of offensive linemen. So there's only this week and two other weeks to possibly take advantage here and go against Cincinnati. And it wouldn't shock me here. I think that probably Zach Taylor, at best, is going to last through the season next year. So this is a bad, bad team. Take advantage of these bad teams that are quitting. I mean, look at yesterday. Look at Jacksonville. Just, you know, gave up. So we're going to take advantage of a bad team, 14 and a half. Public might be afraid of it because of what happened yesterday with the Rams. They dropped the game to the Jets. But this is the blowout of the weekend, not the Rams against the Jets. Sometimes you got to lay it if you want to play it. I like Pittsburgh big. They should win this game by three touchdowns.”
17-27 — The Bengals beat the Steelers 27-17 on Dec 21, 2020; Pittsburgh -14.5 lost outright (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line, UMass minus nine versus Bryant. Total points 161. How are you feeling about this one? Sounds like a track meet in the making. Yeah, I'm feeling pretty good about this game here. So the total is 161. You have a team, Bryant, that's played eight games. They've scored from between 74 and 138. Yeah, you heard me correct. And 138 points in one game. In fact, one of the other games, they scored over 100 points, 101 points. Their low output the entire season was 74 points. So what you have is a team that scores from 81 to 138 per game, Team UMass. They've only played three games, but they've scored between 75 and 94 points here in two of the three games between 85 and 94. Both teams like to play up and down fast. I mean, if they set up for two or three plays during the game, you're going to be shocked. So the total is 161. I think it's going to end up in the mid-160s. It wouldn't shock me here. This total, like I said, we see a game that ends up close to 200 points scored. So sometimes early in the season there's some gifts before they figure out teams. And most people aren't going to look at a total on a UMass Bryant game, But I love the over here, over 161 total points in a track meet. Who needs defense? No, not at all. Defense is overrated, clearly. And this is what we're going to do. We're going to put this as a level two lock. So sometimes I'm cautious early in the week because of the bankroll. We want to build the bankroll. But this isn't a one lock. This is a level two lock. You know, the line did open about 157, so the sharps are on it a little bit. But we're going to put it as a level two lock and start the week off real strong on a Monday.”
93-88 — Bryant beat UMass 93-88 on Dec 21, 2020; the 181 combined points cleared the Over 161 total (ESPN box score).
“betonline line for Boise State Minus six and minus 6 for San Jose State What are your thoughts on this one So everyone wants to bet the big conference championship games but sometimes in these lower-profile, non-five championship games, it's an easier winner. So San Jose State used to be awful. They're a roadkill no more. In fact, I think the last time they had a perfect season was 1938. The coach was Pop Warner. A lot of people playing sports. You remember playing Pop Warner Youth League football. It goes that far back. I mean, people that go to their games in the past, before 2020, I think they were lost. They were probably going for a promotion for a chance to win free tuition or something like that and left after halftime. But they have actually the better defense. They're undefeated in this game. They have the better offense. They throw for more yards, believe it or not, than Boise State. More sacks per game, give up fewer yards. They're plus four in turnover margin, while Boise is minus four. And Boise is not the same team we've seen in the last four or five years, even the last decade. They have been dominated and had trouble against good defenses in BYU and Wyoming. The only edge Boise has is they have five block kicks here. San Jose State is relocated to Las Vegas here for the last month, so they played there last week. They had a big win against Nevada to advance to this game here. The wrong team is favored. The game's not being played in Boise. If it was, we might give Boise the edge, but it's not going to be 20 degrees. It'll be probably 40 to 50 degrees. Wrong team's favored. San Jose State beats Boise State for the Mountain West Championship 30-27.”
34-20 — San Jose State beat Boise State 34-20 on Dec 19, 2020 to win the Mountain West Championship; San Jose State moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for West Virginia. Minus 15 versus Iowa State. Big time hoop action right here, Lee. So in years past, I mean, Iowa State's been good. And they finish top three, top four, I think almost every year the last decade. But they are one and four this year. In fact, they lost to Iowa. Iowa's a good team, 105-77. West Virginia, 4-1. Their only loss was to a top five team in Gonzaga. They are ranked right now number eight in the country. I really like West Virginia at home here. This Iowa State team is a shadow of itself. They have a nice true freshman, a kid that might end up being a player here. I like Bolton. They're transferred from Penn State. But when you look at this West Virginia team, usually they have someone inside that can score outside. This year they have an inside game They have Miles Deuce McBride He a problem on the perimeter Derek Culver great around the basket McBride averaging almost 15 points per game Culver, almost 14 points per game, almost one and a half blocks here per game. So the problem here for the Cyclones is they're going to be facing an opponent that isn't just good on the offensive end. They're a top-ten defense in the nation, and they can score. Usually, West Virginia has just one of these components. This is an under-the-radar top-ten team. They might be getting into the Final Four this year. West Virginia blasts Iowa State. Sometimes you've got to lay it if you want to play it. West Virginia, minus 15.”
70-65 — West Virginia beat Iowa State 70-65 on Dec 18, 2020; the 5-point margin fell short of the -15 spread (ESPN box score).
“Clemson, the betonline.ag line for Clemson is minus 10 versus Notre Dame. What say you? Okay, so a lot of people will say, okay, Trevor, Lawrence is back. They're two linebackers that missed the first game. They're going to be playing. Okay, they're back to normal. Well, in the first game, it wasn't Trevor Lawrence's backup that was a problem. He threw for 439 yards, didn't even have an interception. They just got dominated the line of scrimmage. Notre Dame, they're averaging 235 rushing yards a game. A year ago, Travis Etienne, and I think he's the best running back in college football. Last six games of the year, he rushed for between 109 and 212 yards in all six games. This year, he has not rushed for 100 yards in any of the last six games here. I'm watching this Clemson team, and I take notes. The offensive line is down from last year. They don't have the same receivers. The defensive backs are not the same, not even at the same level as the last two or three years here. I think Notre Dame's going to pull off the upset. I'm going to take the points. Notre Dame knocks off Clemson 34-30.”
34-10 — Clemson beat Notre Dame 34-10 in the ACC Championship Game on Dec 19, 2020; Notre Dame +10 lost by 24 (ESPN box score).
“betonline line for Kansas City Saints. Kansas City minus three versus New Orleans, and I believe they're getting Drew Brees back. How are you feeling about this one? So I'm not so sure he's going to play. They're releasing that he's practicing. I have a feeling that they're going to wait a week or two. They They want to wait until he's 100%. They still are the number one seed. They're tied with Green Bay right now. And I just see some chinks in the armor. I'm watching this New Orleans team. They gave up over 200 yards rushing last week against Philadelphia. I think teams are figuring out Taysom Hill. He can really only run 10 to 12 plays well. And then Kansas City, they might have been woken up last week. We had the great Patrick Mahomes, who had only thrown two interceptions. the entire season through three interceptions against a very good Miami defense. So New Orleans is going to have to play at a very high level. I think Mahomes has been woken up. They were up 30-10 with 12 minutes to go. They almost blew that lead. So I think they're streaking right now. They want that number one seed, only one seed in each conference, gets a bye going into the playoffs. So I just think that New Orleans is going to try to muck up this game. They're going to try to run the football, make it ugly. But I think Kansas City, with now the chink in the armor here with this New Orleans defense, they're going to be able to run the ball. And I think Mahomes will also hit on some big plays. He has too many weapons here. I like Kansas City. This is my lock of the day, my lock of the weekend. We had a level one lock on Wednesday. We had a level two lock on the under on that Texas Tech game last night against Kansas, which won by almost 20 points. We're going for a level three lock. We're going to take Kansas City and lay the three points. I am winning this game 30 to 13.”
32-29 — The Chiefs beat the Saints 32-29 on Dec 20, 2020; the exact 3-point margin pushed against Kansas City -3 (ESPN box score).
“betonline line for Southern Utah minus eight and a half versus Dixie State. First of all, off top, that's already got me saying WTF. So most people have maybe heard of Southern Utah. They're the Thunderbirds. And they've taken on the BYU, some of the tougher teams out west, and actually pulled a few upsets over the years. Not a lot of people have heard of Dixie State. So they're actually rivals. Southern Utah is in St. George, Utah. This is southern Utah. It's actually just over the border of Nevada. And Dixie State, about another 25, 30 miles northwest of St. George and Cedar City, Utah. So somewhat rivals and maybe a little more for Dixie State. And they're 3-0. I mean, they're the Trailblazers, their nickname. And they've done well so far. They're coming off a three-point win against Denver. They have also beaten North Dakota, which is usually a fairly strong team, and blew out a St. Catherine team. I haven't heard of St. Catherine. I've actually just heard of them this year for the first time, 86-48 in Game 2 this year. But they're going to take on a Southern Utah team, which is historically a little bit stronger, 4-1. But the Southern Utah Thunderbirds, you know, have had a lot of close games. I mean, they ended up losing 85-83 to Loyola Marymount. Then, since they lost that game, they also played St. Catherine, blew them up by a similar score here, 95-47. and then had a one-point win over Montana and a 10-point win over Utah Valley. So Southern Utah's leading scorer, Tevion Jones, had 33 points. I don't think he's going to have that kind of game again here. The problem here for the Thunderbirds, 11-28 against the spread the last 39 games. It's a home favorite. Also, no real home crowd here, limited attendance. I'm going to take Dixie State here. I think this is going to be a three- to five-point game, maybe a one-possession game here. I'm going to take the eight-and-a-half points here. Dixie State as the WTF. I think they take the money here and play this game right down to the wire.”
85-78 — Southern Utah beat Dixie State 85-78 on Dec 17, 2020; Dixie State +8.5 covered a 7-point loss (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for Raiders. Minus three versus the Chargers. What are your thoughts on this one? Give me some good news, man. I need it. So the Chargers would love nothing more than to knock the Raiders out of the playoffs as they did I think going back to 2011 in Week 17 That game actually allowed Tim Tebow and his mates to take the AFC West with an 8-8 record. So, Herbert played finally a little bit better last week, threw for 243 yards, 36 for 44, threw an incredible pass to set up the game-winning 43-yard field goal last week. But here's the problem. Injuries on both sides. And people are talking about the Vegas injuries like they might be even more than the Chargers. I don't see it that way. I mean, I'm looking down at the injuries and how they'll affect this team, and I just think it's going to be too much here for the Chargers. Chargers without three starters on the offensive line. Their receivers are banged up. Middle linebacker Perryman will not play in this game. So, hey, I know about the injuries for Las Vegas. Their defense, especially their secondary, has not been great. But I think the cream's going to rise to the top. Derek Carr, top 10 quarterback in the NFL this year. And if it comes down to it, Anthony Lynn will find another way to blow this game. I think he's one of the worst coaches I've seen in the 40, 50 years following the NFL. So I'm going to lay the three points on Thursday night. Also, Chargers are traveling on the short week. Give me the Raiders.”
30-27 — The Chargers beat the Raiders 30-27 in overtime on Dec 17, 2020; Las Vegas -3 lost outright (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for 14th-ranked Texas Tech, minus three versus fifth-ranked Kansas, some Big 12 action. Total on the game is 133.5. What say you? Where's your lock level on this game? Okay, so the game is being played in Lubbock, Texas. About 25% capacity as far as fans are concerned. Usually a really good home court advantage. And I think even the 25% they'll be allowed. They play in an arena that's called the United Supermarkets Arena. It's got to be one of the worst names out there. So I looking at the game and I studying the game And sometimes you study a game and you see things differently So Texas Tech at home is good but they number one in Ken Palm adjusted defensive efficiency ratings here. And also top nine are better in each of the last three seasons under their head coach, Chris Beard. Love him as a coach. Don't be surprised if eventually next year to he moves on somewhere else in college basketball or to the NBA. Also, their seventh in defensive turnover percentage, they've started pressuring twice as much in the full court as compared to last year. And also, on offense, the negative is they settle for a ton of mid-range jumpers. They're 14th highest nationally in settling for mid-range jumpers. what that means is I think they're going to slow the game down it's going to become a defensive struggle it's early in the season and the total 133 and a half I mean I got this is like a three to five point game so why take a chance on playing the side I think it's going to be something like Texas Tech 66 Kansas 63 so I work it out to like 123 the total should be maybe 125 it's 133 and a half. I think you got a lot of leeway. I'm going to play the under one 33 and a half as my lock of the day. We're going to call it a level two lock, not quite a number three, but a level two lock for tonight on the under Texas tech, Kansas.”
58-57 — Kansas beat Texas Tech 58-57 on Dec 17, 2020; the 115 combined points stayed under 133.5 (ESPN box score).
“So the line is now pit minus two at betonline.ag. I think Miami might end up being the favorite by game time. So we're going to bank on that and take a shot on that. Also, Miami plays really good defense. They're improved on defense from last year, only 40th in effective field goal percentage holding their opponents. And also, they're 36 in the country and not allowing teams to get offensive rebounds. And that's how Pitt likes to operate. They're not a great shooting team. But Miami has just had two horrific shooting games in a row. In fact, they were 1-17 against Purdue. They won the game, believe it or not, shooting just 5% from the field. And then they were 3-19 from three-point lane and a loss to Florida Gulf Coast, where they lost 66-62. So I think that Olenay is going to play in this game. I think the ruling is going to allow transfers to play immediately, and it's just one hour before the start time. So he's probably sitting there in his uniform in the locker room or going through drills, and I think it's going to happen. And then also Matt Cross, who is listed as questionable, I have a feeling he's going to play. He's a true freshman, power forward here. I like Miami plus two right now. Like I said, I think we're getting a good line. They might end up being the favorite. I think they win the game outright. Long team is favorite.”
70-55 — Pittsburgh beat Miami 70-55 on Dec 16, 2020; Miami +2 lost outright, no cover (ESPN box score).
“betonline.ag line for Arizona versus Cal Baptist. Arizona is minus 21.5 over Cal Baptist. And Lee, if I'm not mistaken, weren't they just a D2 school not too long ago? Yeah, four years ago they were a D2 school. they've made the transition to a division one school in fact they play in the whack and most people don't realize that uh their nickname is the lancers uh you look at their record you're probably saying oh they three and two they playing arizona five and oh it at arizona This has blowout written all over it Well not so fast Cal has played the tougher schedule In fact their opening game, they took USC to overtime and lost by eight points in that game. In that game, did this kid Tyrell, he's a junior from Langley, British Columbia. That's right. Canada led them with 32 points and four assists. Last game, 19 points, eight assists. The kid barely even played last year. So you have a kid that's coming on. They shoot three-pointers. Arizona, like I said, has played no one. And they struggle versus Eastern Washington to win 70-67. They struggle against, you know, it used to be a good name school in basketball, UTEP 69-61. Also Cal Baptist here. 12-3 against the spread on the road, and they've scored at least 80 points in every game so far. So let's say they scored 70 points. All you need to have them do is hold Arizona under 90, so we're getting 21.5 points here. They shoot over 39% from three-point land. I mean, what a job this head coach has done. I mean, he's picking guys up from, like I mentioned, Ty Roll. He's from Canada. He's picking guys up from Brazil, Australia, and even Tasmania. So, you know, some of these teams are under the radar. This is an under-the-radar team getting 21.5 points. I have a feeling this is going to be a single-digit game. This is my lock of the day. We're going to call this a level two lock. Wouldn't shock me at halftime. They're leading, like I said, within striking distance. We love Cal Baptist here. Love the Lancers here to keep it close against Arizona.”
The Dec 16, 2020 Arizona-Cal Baptist game was canceled roughly 2.5 hours before tipoff due to a positive COVID-19 case in the Cal Baptist program (ESPN news, Arizona Athletics).