Analyst · 15-25 on settled picks
| League | other | parlay | futures | moneyline | prop | spread | total | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup | 4-6+3% | 6-3+29% | 1-7-19% | 2-3+11% | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 15-25-4% |
“I'm hoping it will limit the number of goals. I've gone for France winning under five match goals and you can get that at minus one, two, five. I think that's a pretty good way into the game.”
France 2-0 Morocco — FIFA records France's 2-0 quarter-final win over Morocco, so France won and the five-goal under leg also won.
“being overly not overly convincing i think i'm just going to take spain uh they're a little bit short in the 1x2 market but on the asian handicap minus 0.75 uh you can get a price um near even so this handicap needs spain to win by two a two-go margin to return full profits if they win by one go margin in 90 minutes you'll get half profit so i think that's good enough i've not got the price that i might i think it's i've lost it minus 120 minus 125 maybe um yeah that's good enough for me”
Spain 2-1 Belgium — FIFA records Spain's 2-1 quarter-final win over Belgium, so Spain covered the -0.75 Asian handicap.
“So if that is the case and England are pushing forward for goals and if they're buoyed by that performance last time out, that we think they probably will be, then I expect Harry Kane to score. And I know I put it up on the last pod, Harry Kane, anytime he goes score, but I think I'm going to do it again. We've got a bit of a shorter price, got minus 111.”
Norway 1-2 England (AET) — FIFA reports Jude Bellingham scored both England goals in the 2-1 extra-time win over Norway, confirming Harry Kane did not score. (Harry Kane 0 goals)
“um so yeah i don't really know what else to say mike about messi uh just at the price and just taking away the pressure and the stress of a result as we did last time obviously we had messi to score argentina to win and look how that nearly turned out so i'll 1.9 at minus 111 i'm just gonna take messi to score”
Argentina 3-1 Switzerland (AET) — FIFA's Argentina-Switzerland report names Argentina's scorers as Mac Allister, Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez, confirming Lionel Messi did not score. (Lionel Messi 0 goals)
“where you're from, then that's something to consider. But in the main markets, I do like Spain and I also like the thought of goals. So I'm going to pair the two together take a swing at a big price. Spain to win both teams to score at plus 275.”
Portugal 0-1 Spain — FIFA records Portugal's 0-1 Round-of-16 loss to Spain, so Portugal did not score and the both-teams-to-score parlay leg failed.
“Mohamed Salah, Omar Mamouche whenever we spoke about Egypt they're naturally the two players that you know follow um but my bet specifically for this game yeah Messi to score Argentina to win you're getting that even money plus 100”
Argentina 3-2 Egypt — FIFA reports Messi scored in Argentina's 3-2 Round-of-16 win over Egypt, confirming both parlay legs won. (Lionel Messi 1 goal)
“I'm going to take both teams to score.”
Switzerland 0-0 Colombia (AET; Switzerland won 4-3 on penalties) — FIFA records Switzerland 0-0 Colombia through extra time before Switzerland won the shootout, confirming both teams did not score.
“specifically for the bet for podcast specifically i gone for morocco minus 125 to win in 90 minutes”
Canada 0-3 Morocco — FIFA records Morocco's 3-0 Round-of-16 win over Canada, confirming the regulation moneyline won.
“it gets to a stage where you just got to cave in and maybe run along with it So yeah I gone for France win Kylian Mbappe minus 125 and I also got an outright future which I discuss a bit later on”
Paraguay 0-1 France — The French Football Federation records Mbappé's 70th-minute goal in France's 1-0 Round-of-16 win over Paraguay, confirming both parlay legs won. (Kylian Mbappé 1 goal (70th minute))
“I'm going to put up Michael Olise, golden ball at plus 450.”
FIFA awarded Rodri the 2026 adidas Golden Ball, so Michael Olise did not win the award. (Rodri, adidas Golden Ball winner)
“they're probably going to have to score in 90 minutes so it's an easy one for me both teams to score minus one four three it's probably the shortest price i've put on this podcast for the world cup but it's one that i'm happy to take”
Brazil 1-2 Norway — FIFA records Brazil's 1-2 Round-of-16 loss to Norway, confirming both teams scored.
“yeah i'm not quite going five leg palais but i respected daniele for absolutely going for it i'm gonna go for harry kane plus 150 anytime goal scorer and this game specifically mexico versus england i think it's going to be a really difficult test for both teams actually difficult for england in the altitude and in the conditions and at the azteca and i just want to take away all the result based markets take away the Asian handicaps and just focus on the fact that if England create one two three high quality opportunities in attack then it more than likely will fall to Harry Kane and if the ball does fall to Harry Kane within 20 yards then I'm pretty confident he's going to score he scored five goals already in four games um I don't have his Bayern Munich stats to hand but I can assure you they were absolutely ridiculous this season so if he gets a chance he'll likely score and at plus 150 in this game um where our predicted might be pretty even then i think it's a good way to go for sam ingram and daniele fizichella i'm mike calvary's”
Mexico 2-3 England — FIFA reports Harry Kane scored in England's 3-2 Round-of-16 win over Mexico, confirming the anytime-goalscorer wager won. (Harry Kane 1 goal)
“pretty decent goal scoring opportunities so I wanted both teams to score unfortunately it's too it's too uh too short of a price so i've landed on uh both teams score and over 2.5 that's at plus 100 and i don't mind that just in case we don't get that third goal and we do get both teams to score um yeah what the correct score of 1-1 a much bigger price plus 600 now daniele the u.s is”
USA 1-4 Belgium — FIFA records Belgium's 4-1 Round-of-16 win over the United States, confirming both teams scored and the over-2.5 parlay leg won.
“rather scary and that is definitely easier said than done so yeah i'm going for the draw i think it was plus 160”
Norway beat Ivory Coast 2-1 in regulation (Round of 32, Jun 30); Draw selection lost.
“I'd love to come on here and back France at minus 120, but it's obviously not something we can do. I'm going to pair that with both teams to score. That gets us to plus 180, which is a pretty good price.”
France beat Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32 (France to win leg won), but Sweden never scored, so Both Teams to Score - Yes lost, sinking the parlay. (France 3-0 Sweden)
“i've gone for ecuador plus 0.25 asian handicapper plus 100 even”
Mexico beat Ecuador 2-0 in the Round of 32; a 2-goal loss is well outside the +0.25 Asian handicap cover. (Mexico 2-0 Ecuador)
“both teams to score yes minus 111 Same bet for you Sam, anything to add? Yeah exactly same I think Belgium are going to be confident that they can create opportunities here like we said they are stacked in forward areas really De Bruyne, Doku, Trossard etc among others however even in like the World Cup qualifiers when they face an opponent who is decent in the final third they often concede if you go back to the qualifiers Belgium beat second place Wales the only nation to really threaten Belgium in that qualifying phase they beat them on both occasions during that World Cup qualifying campaign but those two matches ended 4-3 and 4-2 so uh yeah this is a belgium team that you know can outscore oppositions that are going to trouble them but they often concede as well and rudy garcia side also conceded against egypt and also new zealand 5-1 in the group stage two attacks that are arguably you know worse than what they'll face in the upcoming fixture and in sadio mane ismail assar who's got three goals at the world cup liman and die nicholas jackson you know that's a wealth of current and former premier league experience in the final third um and we touched on it in last week's podcast in the two most recent world cup tournaments in russia and qatar both teams to score yes was a winning selection in six out of eight fixtures in the opening knockout round following the group stage so if you consider both attacks and their quality i think this is another match that could quite easily see the net bulge at both ends so uh um my fingers around minus one one one both teams to score yes i think that's a pretty good way into the game”
Belgium beat Senegal 3-2 AET (Round of 32, Jul 1); both teams scored, BTTS Yes won.
“enough to back a croatial win and a draw you can get plus 250 which i think is pretty decent”
Portugal beat Croatia 2-1 in regulation (Round of 32, Jul 2); Draw selection lost.
“And the way we could approach this, if we're trying to get a bit of a bigger price and for the podcast to get something a little bit different on it and at a bigger price of plus 350. Um, yeah, but a game to be decided on penalties.”
Australia 1-1 Egypt, Egypt won 4-2 on penalties; match decided by penalties won.
“So my bet here is Argentina to win second half and over four Argentina's corners in the whole game, minus one, two, five.”
Argentina beat Cape Verde 3-2 after extra time in the Round of 32, but Argentina led only 1-0 at halftime and was outscored 0-1 in regulation second half (Cape Verde's equalizer came in the 59th minute; Argentina's next goal was in extra time), so 'Argentina to win the second half' lost. Argentina did clear 4 corners (8 total), but the parlay lost on the first leg. (Argentina 3-2 Cape Verde AET (HT 1-0; corners 8-8))
“like you said Mike at the beginning of winning an extra time or on penalty so I like that side of it we can also pair it with under four match goals and that might be a handy addition just to get the price up to you know a palatable area to take as a bet builder or same game parlay and although in recent World Cups there has been more goals in the knockout stages in Russia and in Qatar. Historically, I've got the data here since 1998, if you're opting for under 2.5 goals across all knockout rounds, bettors would have yielded a 9.98% ROI if utilizing a flat staking method across every single knockout game since 1998. So it has been a profitable and avenue to attack under 2.5 goals but instead of taking that we're going to go up a rung and take under 3.5 goals and even with that we get a lot of correct scores on our side with it we get 3-0 Canada Whitewash 2-1 2-0 1-0 and we also obviously get the 0-0 and 1-1 because we've got Canada to qualify as well um so yeah that better builder comes out at around minus 1-2-5”
Parlay cashes: Canada to advance — won; Under 3.5 match goals +3.5 — won.
“I expect the Netherlands can score here. And yeah, equally, I expect Morocco to as well. So obviously I've landed on both teams to score. Historically, betting on unders, under goal lines has been the way to go at the World Cup. but I've mentioned the previous two World Cups have been a bit goalsy in the knockout stages. In 2022, there was an average of three goals a game, which is 0.5 more than the group stage at that tournament. And in 2018 in Russia, there was an average of 2.75 goals per knockout game, which was a 0.21 increase from the group stages. So we're not always going to see tense, nervy affairs in the knockouts at this stage of a competition. And I really like the both teams to score scenario in these games because you know if one team goes ahead then the other simply has no like they have no choice but to throw the kitchen sink at the other team because obviously they're they're heading out of the competition they're on their way home it's um yeah it's last gasp type of stuff pump the ball in the box try and create opportunities however you can so uh minus 105 i think it was near evens i think it's a decent price and one I'm willing to take on again.”
Netherlands 1-1 Morocco in regulation (Round of 32, Jun 29, Morocco won on penalties); both teams scored, BTTS Yes won.
“i've gone for a belgium win and under four belgium goals scored that's at minus one one one”
Belgium 1-1 Egypt — FIFA's official schedule records the draw, so Belgium did not win. (Belgium result: draw)
“So, yeah, Senegal, plus one Asian handicap at 2.0, evens.”
France 3-1 Senegal — FIFA's official schedule confirms Senegal lost by two and missed plus one. (Senegal goal margin: -2)
“I am focusing on a Julian Ryerson assist at plus 200.”
Iraq 1-4 Norway — The match record credits the Norway assists to other players, not Ryerson. (Julian Ryerson assists: 0)
“and you could go one step further by doing austria win and under three austria goals at plus 140”
Austria 3-1 Jordan — FIFA's official schedule confirms Austria scored three, failing the strict under-three leg. (Austria goals: 3)
“so i landed on portugal winning under four portugal goals which is much shorter than danny elliott asap minus one for three”
Portugal 1-1 DR Congo — FIFA's official schedule records a Portugal draw, so the win-and-total builder lost. (Portugal result: draw; Portugal goals: 1)
“i'm going to do instead of taking a bet in this game i still think the straight forecast in the group is the right way to play it where you can get croatia to finish first england to finish second at plus 400”
England 1st; Croatia 2nd — FIFA's official schedule results establish the reverse Group L finishing order. (England points: 7; Croatia points: 6)
“to get nine points once again at the 2026 world cup the most likely nation to put them in group l for me and according to the bookmakers is croatia so the value has to be back in croatia to win the group because if they avoid defeat on match day one then it's a straight shootout between england and Croatia of who can score the most goals against Panama and Ghana. So at the odds, I just have to back Croatia, even though the likelihood is that England will just edge match day one and also edge top spot in the group. But again, at the odds, I just can't think you can side with them.”
England 1st; Croatia 2nd — FIFA's official schedule results establish England as Group L winner. (England points: 7; Croatia points: 6)
“so mexico win on mexico most corners at evens good show”
Mexico beat South Africa 2-0 and led corners 3-1 in the 2026 World Cup opener — both parlay legs hit. (Mexico 2-0 South Africa; corners Mexico 3, South Africa 1)
“I'm just going to go for the draw at the biggest price in the 1x2 market and that's at plus 210.”
KOR 2, CZE 1 — KOR 2, CZE 1; draw misses.
“So my bet here is over 22 total match shots at minus 125”
CAN 1, BIH 1 — Combined 2; over 22.5 busts.
“I've ended up with USA all draw, double chance market and under three goals in the game that's at minus 111”
USA won 4-1 over Paraguay (double chance covered) but 5 total goals busted the under 3 leg of the combo.
“I landed on, it's pretty simple, Switzerland to win 2-0 at minus 1-2-8.”
Qatar drew Switzerland 1-1, so Switzerland did not win 2-0.
“i think yeah that half a unit on the draw plus 275”
BRA 1, MAR 1 — BRA 1, MAR 1; draw hits.
“but I've got a couple to mention here. Straight away if I see a really short price favourite in the group winner market for example that really doesn look right then I start looking at number two what are their odds to win the group can I you know get involved in a straight forecast dual forecast in the group and just go from there really and what I found with group L England's group is that England just look really short obviously that they should they are rightful favorites to win the group they should be number one in the betting but i just think they're too short so you can get croatia first england second and you can get plus 500 for that thought that was pretty big”
2026 World Cup Group L final standings: England finished 1st, Croatia 2nd — the reverse of the picked straight-forecast order (Croatia 1st, England 2nd). (Group L: 1. England, 2. Croatia, 3. Ghana, 4. Panama)
“a price around plus 500 and then if you want to take something a little bit bigger I've got New Zealand um as the lowest scoring ranked nation which is around 15 to 1 at the minute they just lost uh Haiti 4-0 last night in a friendly which is a absolutely shocking result um and that squad in general they actually entered the tournament as the worst the lowest ranked FIFA nation it feels that price 15 to 1 for the lowest um ranked nation it feels pretty big in a group where the teams they're going to have to break down are either much better than them Belgium for example or in Egypt and Iran who will be pretty tough to break down especially considering New Zealand don't have much in the way of players in the final third they've got Chris Wood but Chris Wood without service is not the Chris Wood we know and we see in the Premier League. So yeah, at 15 to 1, that feels pretty big. Their opening goal line, team total goals, opened at 4.5 over and under. It's now 2.5, so the market's reacted to that. And the market likes New Zealand to score fewer than three goals. So yeah, at 15 to 1, I'm going to take a swing at that as well.”
New Zealand (Group G) scored 4 goals across the group stage (2 vs Iran, 1 vs Egypt, 1 vs Belgium) and was not the lowest-scoring nation; Panama and Haiti were held scoreless (0 goals) in the group stage, finishing as the tournament's lowest scorers. (New Zealand: 4 goals in 3 group games; Panama & Haiti: 0 goals)
“more obscure with your player future yeah his household he's he's improved massively over the last um i was going to say over the last season but especially in in the second half of the season it's Jeremy Doku to be top belgian team goal scorer so i think we're getting a bit of value with this one if let's forget about docu's obvious qualities and potential at this upcoming world cup and focus on the current market we've got romelu lukaku here as the favorite for belgium he's the odds-on favorite very short price and looking at the market you'd assume that lukaku has this wrapped up no one's going to get close to him in terms of belgian top go scorer and this to me is a very clear case of the bookmakers pricing a market on name recognition, historical achievements of a player. Lukaku is Belgium leading goal scorer in history He got double more than the next best Eden Hazard for his country So that will have played a part in why he such a short price favourite I get that. But this is a player struggling with injury concerns and match fitness. He played five Serie A games this season. He didn't feature in any of Napoli's last 10 games. Rudy Garcia, Belgian manager, has literally come out and commented on the Lukaku situation ahead of the World Cup by saying Romelu has recovered in terms of his hip injury but he is out of shape and I'm not sure he'll be able to start matches we have five weeks to get him back to full fitness so that little by little he can help the team so with that in mind in my eyes that opens up the bed to up to a few players Leandro Trossard at a bigger price as well is one to consider um but after the year that Docu's had in 2026 he scored eight goals this season for City in total and five of them have come in his last 10 appearances he's been really good for city actually near the back end of the season um he has proven efficient in cutting in on his right foot pulling the trigger i'll remember two or three goes for city where he's done that in the last couple months alone so yeah he comes into the summer in good form and against the likes of egypt new zealand iran in the group stages three nations which will probably deploy a lower block against Belgium I'm expecting that Docu could be cutting in on his right and having to go multiple times in those games so yeah that is at plus 700 I thought it was a pretty big price and a favorite we probably should be backing against”
Jeremy Doku did not finish as Belgium's top scorer at the 2026 World Cup; the Doku future loses. (Kevin De Bruyne led Belgium with six tournament goals.)
“I try and come from it from a player's point of view a lot of the time because picking a nation at a big price is really difficult and often doesn't happen. So I've come up with a punt 50-1 in the most assist markets now probably won't happen there are probably players who are going to surpass him but i've ended up with julian ryerson for norway now he ended the 25 26 campaign with 15 bundesliga assists for dortmund now he arrives at a world cup with erlin harland and alexander soloff ahead of him so if you're you know playing on the left or the right of um of a team and you've got those two uh forwards in the box and you've got a delivery on you then you are going to be expecting to get some assists most probably and at that price norway they're probably they fit into that danielle said it that dark horse mode we don't really know how far they're going to go we know they've got attack and output there that they can tap into so um yeah julian ryerson 50 to 1 he got uh four assists in eight world cup qualifiers for norway so he's not only done this at dortmund in the bundesliga he's also done it for his country”
Julian Ryerson did not lead the 2026 World Cup in assists; the most-assists future loses. (Ryerson recorded zero assists in four tournament appearances.)
“I'm going for Demirovic, top Bosnia scorer at plus 550.”
Ermedin Demirovic led Bosnia with 4 goals (Dzeko 0); Bosnia eliminated in the Round of 32 on 2026-07-01, so he is the team's top scorer. (Demirovic 4 goals)