pending
Chase Brown under 825.5 rushing yards
“Yeah, I am very down on the running back for the Bengals, Chase Brown, this year. So I'm going to go under 825.5 rushing yards. You kind of have to go one or the other.”
Ariel Epstein
Prop Queen · 2-1 on settled picks
Record
2-1
Cash %
66.7%
Net units
+1.56u
ROI
+52.0%
CLV evidence: 0 of 1 supported standalone picks have a pregame quote
0 have calculable CLV from a stated line or price. Headline rates use 0 non-flat moves with audited evidence within 15 minutes of the start; 0 primary flat observations are excluded from the beat rate.
Quote timing: 0 within 15 minutes · 0 15–60 minutes · 0 older than 60 minutes · 0 unverified. Counts include captured quotes without numeric CLV. Parlays and prediction markets are separate. Coverage and missing evidence.
Picks
5 total · 2 pending pending
Buffalo Bills under regular-season wins (line unstated)
“I'm not high on the Bills this year. I'm not. I'll say that. I bet their season win total under. That was one of the other ones that I did bet.”
won
Seattle Seahawks (+165)
“I could still get the Seahawks at plus 165 to win the Super Bowl. If I want to come off the Rams a little bit, then I could get the plus 165. So I'm sitting on a Seahawks money line at plus 165.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seahawks won Super Bowl LX outright, 29-13 over New England; the Seattle moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
lost
Byron Murphy II over 3.5 total tackles
“So I like his over. Five total tackles. Byron Murphy's gone over this in six of the last nine games. Nice. He's averaging five total tackles on the road, five total tackles in prime time. Certain defensive players just show up in prime time, and Byron Murphy's one of them. Three and a half's too low.”
Byron Murphy II recorded 2 total tackles in Super Bowl LX; under the 3.5 line (ESPN box score). (Byron Murphy II: 2 total tackles)
won
Sam Darnold longest rush over 5.5 yards
“Sam Darnold over his longest rush also stood out. We don't want to go over rushing yards for quarterbacks anymore because we don't need kneel downs to have a negative impact on our play. Which famously happened in the first Chiefs Niners Super Bowl with Patrick Mahomes. Correct. So I would go over his longest rush, Darnold, because on the road he's averaging 11 rushing yards a game. His rushing yards prop is only 6.5, and the longest rush is 5.5 with a 2.5 rush attempt prop.”
Sam Darnold carried twice for 5 yards with a longest rush of 11 yards in Super Bowl LX; over 5.5 covers (ESPN box score). (Sam Darnold longest rush: 11 yards)