NC State +8
“I have to go Wolfpack, and there was debate on Twitter if I was the Wolfpack's new number one fan, so I think I have to stay with the Wolfpack and back NC State here. I like him at plus 7.5. I nabbed it at plus 8. It was like that yesterday, so maybe it gets back to that point if some Tennessee backers see him later in the week and like him. But I do like this NC State team, and I know they had a really bad week one. They just didn't look great versus Western Carolina. Offensively, they looked really out of sync. Defensively, they looked like they couldn't stop anybody. But I think they played a lot underneath of what they can do. They very much underperformed. And I know Tennessee and Nico, they looked really good offensively. They played a really bad team, so of course they're going to look really good. But to me, this NC State team underperformed. So I think we're getting them at a pretty good number, as you said. It's a better number if you like NC State than what the opening line was preseason. Grayson McCall, he's going to settle in for NC State in the Wolfpack. He did not look good. He was missing receivers, overthrowing guys. The line sometimes wasn't protecting him very well. I think they fix a lot of those problems after week one. They had a lot of transfers coming on the defensive side. I think those guys now getting that first game under their belt, they'll settle in a little bit better. I just think we're going to see a better overall game from the Wolfpack, and I think because they had such a rough showing in week one, we're getting them at a little bit of a better number. So I'll take NC State. they're not playing at home it's a neutral site game in Charlotte there's going to be plenty of NC State fans there they might outnumber Tennessee fans because it's in Charlotte so I think NC State has a chance to win I don't know if I have the guts to bet the money line but I do love taking the points at seven and a half here hey Ben just to pivot just a little briefly here from the games”
Tennessee 51, NC State 10 — Tennessee routed NC State 51-10 in Charlotte on Sept 7, 2024; NC State lost by 41, busting +8 (ESPN box score).
Oregon to win the Big Ten (+200) · BetMGM
“[47:07] But the lead here is that you think Oregon is going to win the big 10,
[47:11] which is plus 200 right now on bet MGM.
[47:14] Why are you so high on the ducks?
[47:17] Guys, I was telling you a little bit about my love of Oregon before we went
[47:21] on air, but I just, for whatever reason, I love the Ducks. I've loved them the past couple years.
[47:25] I think I just really have a love affair with Dan Lanning. I really like the programs that he runs.
[47:29] I really like the offenses and defenses that he puts out, and the players that he gets
[47:33] recruiting is unbelievable. So I'm in love with Dan Lanning. I'm in love with the Ducks.
[47:37] I come from a Michigan family, so I don't think morally I can put any money on the Ohio State
[47:42] Buckeyes, and honestly, they really haven't shown any reason to believe in them for the past couple
[47:46] years. Ryan Day has been up and down when he has to coach against some really good teams. So
[47:51] So Oregon's going to be the pick for me.
[47:53] You can get them at a pretty good number, a little bit better number than Ohio State.
[47:56] And I really think it's, you know, neck and neck between these two teams.
[47:58] So I'll take the team with the better number with Oregon.”
Oregon 45, Penn State 37 — Oregon beat Penn State 45-37 to win the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game on Dec 7, 2024 (ESPN).
Indiana over 5.5 wins
“[51:41] talent. Five and a half is their win total. I think they can win six. I think they can get to
[51:46] a bowl game in his first season at the helm in Bloomington.”
Indiana went 11-1 in the 2024 regular season, well over the 5.5-win line (ESPN schedule). (Indiana: 11 wins)
Miami under 9 wins
“[54:25] talent, he's got a lot of returners, they've got somewhat of a favorable schedule. I don't trust
[54:30] him. I'm going to say under nine wins for Miami.”
Miami went 10-2 in the 2024 regular season, over the 9-win line (ESPN schedule). (Miami: 10 wins)
NC State over 8.5 wins
“[57:11] So to me, NC State over eight and a half wins
[57:13] when I think they can get 10.
[57:15] I hopped all over that bet.
[57:16] I'm already on over eight and a half.”
NC State went 6-6 in the 2024 regular season, under the 8.5-win line (ESPN schedule). (NC State: 6 wins)
Alabama to win the SEC (+800)
“[59:01] So I really do love, I think you can get them like eight to one at some places.
[59:04] Give me eight to one for Alabama to win the SEC.
[59:07] I'm going to hop all over that number.”
Georgia 22, Texas 19 — Georgia beat Texas 22-19 in overtime to win the 2024 SEC Championship Game; Alabama did not qualify (ESPN).
Caleb Williams to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“[1:00:12] So he's going to get a lot of snaps.
[1:00:13] He's going to get a lot of passing opportunities.
[1:00:16] I think Caleb Williams is going to win offensive rookie there just simply because of that.”
Jayden Daniels won the 2024 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award with 49 of 50 first-place votes; Caleb Williams did not win (CBS Sports).
United States first-half team total over 55.5
“[1:02:53] and I'm going to keep it to the first half total,
[1:02:55] and I'll take the U.S. over 55.5 points
[1:02:58] in the first half”
USA led 26-14 then 29-22 in the second quarter for a first-half total of 55 points against South Sudan, under 55.5. (First half: United States 55 (Q1 26, Q2 29), South Sudan 36 (Q1 14, Q2 22))
Australia +6.5
“[1:04:48] I believe it's at like 16.
[1:04:50] But I like Australia to cover, plus six and a half against Canada.”
Canada 93, Australia 83 — Canada beat Australia 93-83, a 10-point margin, so Australia did not cover +6.5.
Detroit Pistons over 24.5 wins
“[1:10:03] Yeah, so people hopefully bear with me here talking positively about the Detroit Pistons,
[1:10:07] but I like their over 24 and a half wins.”
The Detroit Pistons finished the 2024-25 regular season 44-38, clearing the 24.5-win line. (Detroit Pistons: 44-38)
New York Knicks to win the NBA Cup (+1000)
“[1:11:44] Just call me. Hey, you brought up the Villanova Knicks here,
[1:11:47] 10 to one in that NBA cup.
[1:11:49] I got to hear your, your breakdown of this, uh, liking the Knicks in the cup, because I
[1:11:53] think it's an interesting play in the odd scene fair.
[1:11:56] Yeah, it's, it is very, it feels very degenerate to be doing an NBA cup in late July.
[1:12:01] I'll be a hundred percent honest.
[1:12:03] It didn't feel great researching this bet, but it's one of those things where it's like
[1:12:06] everything kind of makes sense.”
The Milwaukee Bucks won the 2024 NBA Cup, defeating the Oklahoma City Thunder in the championship game; the Knicks did not win it. (2024 NBA Cup champion: Milwaukee Bucks (def. Oklahoma City Thunder))
Phoenix Suns over 46.5 wins
“[1:14:52] put it together, figure out ways that it can succeed.
[1:14:55] I really like over 46.5 for their win total for the Suns.”
The Phoenix Suns finished the 2024-25 regular season 36-46, below the 46.5-win line. (Phoenix Suns: 36-46)
Atlanta Dream +10
“I like taking the points. Double-digit underdogs to the Connecticut Sun. I think it's just a good spot for the Atlanta Dream. The Sun are off an overtime win. They played a lot of minutes. They're traveling back-to-back games for this one. It's a revenge spot for the Dream. I know Atlanta's not the best team in the WNBA, but it's a revenge spot for them. They got killed by the Sun in early June. And also Tina Charles from the Dream. Now that they have injuries to some of their star players, she's had to step up 35 years old. She's going back to where she played college ball at UConn, where she got the WNBA MVP as a Connecticut Sun. So it's like a revenge game for her, revenge game for the dream. I'll take the 10 points in that scenario against the Sun team that's on a back-to-back. And then the Mercury, I'm going to lay the 10 with the Mercury just because, guys, the LA Sparks are just, they're a bad team.”
ATL 78, CON 74 — Atlanta Dream beat Connecticut Sun 78-74 outright, so Dream +10 easily covers (ESPN box score).
Phoenix Mercury -10
“I'll take the 10 points in that scenario against the Sun team that's on a back-to-back. And then the Mercury, I'm going to lay the 10 with the Mercury just because, guys, the LA Sparks are just, they're a bad team. They're not good. They've lost six in a row. The Mercury are coming off a loss themselves, and I think this is a really good bounce-back opportunity for them. The defense for the Sparks is absolutely horrendous. they're gonna they're gonna allow the mercury to get right the mercury are coming off an awful game where they shot poorly 20 from three 30 from the field they're gonna be able to get right against one of the worst defenses in the wnba so the dream take of a 10 the mercury lay in the 10 and if you want a little bet for saturday i'll take seattle minus nine and a half against the wings kind of”
PHO 92, LAS 78 — Phoenix Mercury beat Los Angeles Sparks 92-78, a 14-point margin that covers Mercury -10 (ESPN box score).
Seattle Storm -9.5
“want a little bet for saturday i'll take seattle minus nine and a half against the wings kind of for the same reason the wings are not very good seattle is a much better team especially at home they have the best net rating at home this season and they're catching the wings off of a win that they really weren't supposed to win against the Minnesota links in their last game. So I think the wings are going to be brought back down to earth. They play a storm team at home where they're great. Give me Seattle laying nine and a half. Very good. Ben, we got about 30 seconds left real quick.”
SEA 97, DAL 76 — Seattle Storm beat Dallas Wings 97-76, a 21-point margin that covers Seattle -9.5 (ESPN box score).
Dalton Knecht to win NBA Rookie of the Year
“So to kind of just put a bow on all the NBA draft talk, who do you have as your early bet for rookie of the year? I'm going to go Dalton Connect with the Lakers. I like him. I think he's a perfect fit. for the Lakers. I'll just say that. And I think he's going to get a lot of playing time. You know, he's 23. So I think a lot of NBA GMs, they look at age and they think, ah, he's old. I don't want to draft him. I want to draft like an 18, 19 year old, but connect is ready to play in the NBA. He's ready to contribute right away. And the Lakers are going to need some three point shooting. JJ Redick is his head coach. One of the best shooters ever. You combine everything together.”
Stephon Castle (Spurs) won the 2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year award, so the Dalton Knecht future lost (NBA.com). (2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year: Stephon Castle)
Dallas Mavericks first-quarter moneyline
“specifically Mavs first quarter. I grabbed first quarter money line last game, which I was very happy I did because it was minus one and a half. And right at the end of that first quarter, Jason Tatum made a dunk that made it a one point game at the end of the first. So if you had one and a half, you got hooked, unfortunately. So I'm going to go back to that. Well, and just take the money line for the Mavs in the first quarter. It's a little juicy. It's like minus one 30 minus one 40 at some places, but I think it's worth it just to have that extra protection of the money line instead of the spread. But the Mavs have been a good first quarter team, especially at home. In the finals, we saw they had a hot start. Luka had 13 points. Kyrie had nine points. They shot really well. Their offensive rating was 117 in game three's first quarter, which is way above their average for the series at 102. So offensively, they were churning. They were playing really well. They were shooting well. They just looked like that type of a team that we expected them to come into this series. So I think, you know, with the backs against the wall kind of mentality, I don't love using that as a mentality, to bet the full game because I think it's a baked into the number and I don't know if we have enough evidence to say you know teams with backs against the wall cover the spread for the full game but I do think at home with a must-win game for game four I think they come out of the gates hot we saw Luca talk about how hopefully he's you know a changed man he's a little more mature after that game three getting thrown out foul wise pouting arguing at the refs and it was kind of the spotlight of the game so I think we see a more composed poise Luca Kyrie's gonna do his thing as well in that first quarter. And we saw the Celtics play good first quarters with Kristaps, but if Kristaps isn't playing that first quarter, we're going to see them play a little bit down a level. So I like the Mavs first quarter money line. I think they come out of the gate hot. I think they can win that first quarter. But after that, I'm not going to be responsible for anything. I don't know if they're going to give up the lead. I don't know what the issue is going to be, but I don't know if I want to bet the Mavs for the full game. So I'll stick with the first 12 minutes.”
DAL 122, BOS 84 — Dallas outscored Boston 34-21 in the first quarter of Game 4; the Mavs first-quarter moneyline covers (ESPN box score). (Q1: DAL 34, BOS 21)
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks second-quarter under 54.5
“Ben, something Jeremy and I were talking about is in these elimination games, like a lot of time a play to look at might be like a fourth quarter under when it gets tight, right? The officials maybe let more go. Obviously shots are harder to come by I seeing that you like a second quarter under So you like Dallas to get off to a hot start and maybe this game to settle in a little bit What your thought process behind a second quarter under Yeah exactly And I seen a lot of people take fourth quarter under and I think that's a good position to take. A lot of those fourth quarter unders have been hitting, but I was looking at the second quarter statistics and the unders have been hitting there. It's gone under this number, which is 54 and a half for tonight's game. It's gone under all three games. both teams just seemingly struggle in the second quarter they're averaging 46.7 points in the second quarter in this series which is almost eight points beneath this line so you're getting my opinion pretty good value with this with this line number Dallas has been especially bad in the second quarter 21.7 points in the second quarter they're averaging which is really abysmal and both teams are shooting poorly 31 percent from the field from three are both these teams shooting in the second quarter so both teams shoot poorly Dallas really does not carry their weight and also the second quarter when you look at the guys minutes it's really when the stars play the least amount of time they play a lot in the first quarter to start the game they play a lot in the second half to end the game but the second quarter is where we see them sit and get a little bit of rest time jalen brown is averaging under 10 minutes per second quarter in this series usually you'll see these stars play 10 and a half 11 minutes per each quarter get a couple minutes rest but it's really the second quarter where they get that rest true holidays averaging 8.8 minutes jalen jalen brown's nine Tatum is 10.1 so he's under his average per game so to me you're not going to get a lot of the stars playing it's when both teams struggle to shoot and like you said I think we're going to see a good first quarter start for both these teams but in the second quarter it really simmers down the shooting goes a little flat maybe legs start getting a little tired as we get more into the series as well so I'm a little surprised it's 54 and a half especially since it's gone under all three games so I'll scoop that up and take the under once again I like the thought process on”
DAL 122, BOS 84 — The second quarter of Game 4 produced 41 combined points (DAL 27, BOS 14), staying under the 54.5 line (ESPN box score). (Q2: DAL 27, BOS 14; total 41)
PJ Washington over 6.5 rebounds
“this might come back to bite me in the butt once again um but it's pj washington over on rebounds This has been a pretty steady number. For the most part, six and a half rebounds. He's averaging 7.7 rebounds per game in the finals. His last 10, he's been averaging seven rebounds a game, so still over this number. The Mavs have actually been out-rebounding the Celtics in this series, weirdly enough. So I don't know if that's just the Celtics not giving full effort on rebounds, or the Mavs really crashing the boards, or maybe the Mavs are just missing a bunch of shots and they have to rebound their own ball a lot. Either way, I think P.J. Washington is going to have a lot of opportunities to rebound the ball in this game. Also, he's averaging 38 minutes per game in the finals, And he might play even a little bit more since it's a must-win game and win or go home for the Mavs. So we may see some of those key players play almost the full game. So he'll have plenty of opportunities in my mind to get the over and rebounds. He's done it before with more minutes and more shooting opportunities. I mean, I think he'll do it again.”
DAL 122, BOS 84 — P.J. Washington recorded only 2 rebounds in Game 4, missing the over 6.5 line (ESPN box score). (PJ Washington: 2 rebounds)
Luka Doncic over 17.5 rebounds + assists
“And the other one was Luka. And this is just purely kind of on vibes with him thinking, OK, I got to be more mature. I can't argue with the refs. I got to lock in. Apparently, he talked to his teammates and said he's going to play better defense in this game. So I'm going to go over the rebounds and assist number for Luca at 17 and a half. He's hit this number a bunch of times. He's hit it once in this series, but during the regular season, he averaged 20 rebounds and assists per game. In the playoffs, it was 18.4. So he's averaged over this number plenty of times this season and in the postseason. So he can do it. We know he can do it. And in a game where he'll probably play more aggressive defense, he'll probably be more aggressive to the ball for those rebounds. And I think he's going to want to get his teammates involved a little bit more. We saw him play a lot of iso ball. We saw him play a lot of hero ball in Game 3, and it just didn't work. So if some of those adjustments are really going to be made and he's going to mature a little bit from Game 3 to Game 4, we'll probably see him pass the ball a little bit more and trust his teammates. So a little bit more aggressive, a little bit more trustworthy, should get over rebounds and assists at 17.5.”
DAL 122, BOS 84 — Luka Doncic totaled 5 rebounds and 5 assists (10 combined) in Game 4, missing the over 17.5 line (ESPN box score). (Luka Doncic: 5 REB, 5 AST)
Chicago Sky -2.5
“is going to be ending, I kind of have to scratch that itch of basketball betting, so WNBA is perfect um yeah i i like uh i like sky money line tonight uh to be honest i i think it's a great bounce back game for the chicago sky uh that number's kind of been ticking up i think it's minus two and a half if you don't like the money line number i would go minus two and a half as well the mystics are just they're just not good they have a lot of injuries they're coming to britney sykes played in their last win she got hurt again so she's gonna be out shakira austin's gonna be out there really good low post score so they have to deal with a lot of injuries sky are coming off a loss where they just did not look very good i think they're gonna bounce back after that. Angel Reese has been playing spectacular basketball, coming off a double-double, a 20-10 outing. Camila Cardosa has been fantastic as well. She's kind of settling in after being injured to start the season. She's getting back in the rhythm of things. So to me, the sky's going up and up in the Mystics, especially with the injuries going down. So I really like the sky minus two and a half tonight. And I also like the Sparks team total for the under. If we're looking”
WAS 83, CHI 81 — Washington beat Chicago outright 83-81; the Sky -2.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
Los Angeles Sparks team total under 73.5
“minus two and a half tonight. And I also like the Sparks team total for the under. If we're looking at the other game the Sparks just aren very good offensively and they playing one of the best defensive teams in the W and the links the links at home defensively are the second defense especially at home they give up 70 points per game only at home defensively so they've been fantastic. They have a great shooting defense. They only allow 28% from three-point land, 38% from the field. Sparks are just a younger team going on the road, harsh environment. The Lynx bring in the fans. I don't like the Sparks to score tonight, so I'll go sky minus 2.5 for Moneyline, and then the Sparks team total under 73 and a half.”
MIN 81, LA 76 — The Sparks scored 76 points in Minnesota's 81-76 win, clearing the under 73.5 team total (ESPN box score).
Minnesota Timberwolves moneyline
“one and a half at home really similar market to what we had in game three obviously two eleven and a half the total do you have anything i mean this feels like an afterthought but it doesn't have to be it could be an interesting betting event do you have anything on tonight's game four yeah i think you know when you see a lot of series go 3-0 you're just like all right let's let's get ready for that next series but uh i'll pull out the lee corso and say not so fast i i think the timberwolves may have a little bit of a shot tonight i took the timberwolves money line i I like a plus two as well. This is kind of the classic, you know, a really good team. And the Timberwolves are still a very good team. They've just been struggling a little bit recently. But you have a good team with their backs against the walls. No Derek Lively for the Mavericks, which I think is going to make a pretty big deal for that Timberwolves' ability to penetrate inside and get some shots at the basket or at least open up some shots on the perimeter. So I think this is a game where I can't back the Mavs in this situation just because it's 3-0, backs against the walls. Timberwolves seem like the right side to me.”
105-100 — Minnesota beat Dallas 105-100 in Western Conference finals Game 4 on 2024-05-28, avoiding the sweep (NBA.com game summary).
Boston Celtics -10.5
“feels like in it where it's just like okay game one's tonight i i do see you have a lot of bets in this game and the series so maybe we just start with game one where celtics obviously very rested pacers played game seven on sunday celtics a big favorite in game one about 10 10 and a half how are you playing game one and then maybe we'll do the series stuff with pj yeah sure i know it feels a little square to lay this many points but i'm on the celtics in game one i really like them full game and I really like him first half I'll lay the 10 10 and a half with him I think fading the Pacers off an emotional game seven off a really good game where they shot 67 percent from the field just like a historically good game from the Indianapolis space or the Indiana Pacers I think to me I love fading the Pacers in this in this scenario first of all the Celtics are really good they have the rest advantage at five days of rest the Pacers didn't even go back to Indiana after this game on their game seven against the Knicks at 48 hours between game seven and game one I love backing a team with a rest advantage, especially this deep into the playoffs.”
133-128 — Boston beat Indiana 133-128 in overtime in Game 1 of the 2024 Eastern Conference finals, a 5-point margin that did not cover Celtics -10.5 (ESPN box score).
Indiana Pacers +2.5 games
“I don't think they sweep. And I can really see the Pacers pulling off a couple wins. I know I'm really high on the Celtics in game one. So maybe this is a bet you make after game one, if you believe the Celtics are going to win, but I'm on the Pacers series spread of plus two and a half. You can get it plus money at a lot of places. I think Indiana can sneak out a couple wins against the Celtics for a couple of reasons. I think Indiana, first of all, has a much better offensive game than any of the teams that the Celtics have played so far in the playoffs. The Pacers actually have the best offensive rating in the playoffs so far. So they have the offensive firepower to match up with the Celtics at times. And we've seen a Celtics team that does struggle sometimes to hit three point shots. They had a game against the Cavs where they shot 22 percent from three. So there are times from this Celtics team where we see a team on paper. They look great but for some reason they just can get the three point shot to drop I think the Pacers will be able to take advantage of that for a couple games in this series I love it at plus money I think the Pacers have a chance especially at home They 6 at home this season in the playoffs They have not lost a game in Indiana. So to me, at plus money, plus two and a half, everyone loves the Celtics in the series. The series price is a little egregious, but I do like the Pacers to pull out at least two games in this series and get it at plus money. I have faith that Indiana's offense will at least keep them”
Boston swept Indiana 4-0 in the 2024 Eastern Conference finals (Celtics won Games 1-4), so Indiana +2.5 games on the series lost (ESPN).
Dallas Mavericks +4
“guys but I'm gonna back the Mavs in game one I like the Mavs a plus four and I think kind of like you talked about it's it's been an emotional 48 36 hours for this Minnesota Timberwolves team they got back home after that game seven at like two or three in the morning they've been kind of riding that high of making it to the conference finals and doing something extremely historic to this Timberwolves franchise and not only that but now like you talked about the markets and everyone they like the Timberwolves Timberwolves are the favorite now in game one people look at the Timberwolves as this really good defensive team who has a really good future possible Michael Jordan player and Anthony Edwards so all the pressure and all the eyes are now on the Timberwolves to me it's a perfect time to take the maps they're they're a good underdog team they're three and one against the spread as dogs in the playoffs they're also the best road team in the nba playoffs this season 66 win percentage against the spread on the road in the regular season and in the playoffs it's something similar so to me this is the perfect time to fade the narrative fade the emotions take a mavs team who's not only really good and can hit shots offensively that i don't think even the nuggets can hit but it's a team that's veteran led luca donchich kairi irving they've all been in this spot before i don't think they're going to lose their heads against a timberwolves team that's riding a lot of momentum right now. So if I can get the Mavs as an underdog at plus four, I'm going to take that. I might take their money line as well. I just really like the Mavs in this situation where no one's paying attention to them.”
108-105 — Dallas beat Minnesota 108-105 in Game 1 of the 2024 Western Conference finals, winning outright and covering Mavericks +4 (ESPN box score).
Boston Celtics first-half -8.5
“I'm going to bet Celtics minus eight and a half first half right now.”
Celtics led the Cavaliers 58-52 at halftime of Game 5 on May 15, 2024, a 6-point margin that did not cover Boston's first-half -8.5 (ESPN box score). (Halftime: Celtics 58, Cavaliers 52)
Dallas Mavericks +4
“I'm going to bet them plus four.”
Mavericks 104, Thunder 92 — Mavericks beat the Thunder 104-92 in Game 5 on May 15, 2024, a 12-point margin, so Dallas +4 covered (ESPN box score).
Dallas Mavericks moneyline
“I'm going to bet them plus four. I'm going to take their money line.”
Mavericks 104, Thunder 92 — Mavericks beat the Thunder 104-92 in Game 5 on May 15, 2024; the Dallas moneyline won (ESPN box score).
Dallas Mavericks team total over 104.5
“And I even like the Mavs team total over 104 and a half.”
Mavericks scored 104 points in Game 5 on May 15, 2024, finishing below their 104.5 team total (ESPN box score). (Mavericks: 104 points)
New York Knicks +3.5
“I see that you are on Knicks plus three and a half tonight as one of your favorite bets.”
Knicks 118-115 — New York beat Philadelphia 118-115 in Game 6; Knicks +3.5 covered (ESPN box score).
New York Knicks moneyline
“if I'm gonna bet a money line I'm gonna take the the next money line too”
Knicks 118-115 — New York beat Philadelphia 118-115 in Game 6; Knicks moneyline won (ESPN box score).
Indiana Pacers team total over 110.5
“I'm going to take their team total over 110 and a half.”
Pacers 120-98 — Indiana beat Milwaukee 120-98 in Game 6; Pacers team total over 110.5 won (ESPN box score).
Golden State Warriors -2.5
“Warriors and Kings. Warriors two-and-a-half-point favorites in Sacramento tonight. What are we looking at? Yeah, first of all, happy holidays to all of you. NBA play-in tournament. Very exciting. Love these games. They're a lot of fun. I'm going to side with the Warriors in this one, and I have a lot of reasons listed out on why I like the Warriors tonight, but I think the main reason and honestly the most important reason is I cannot bet against Steph Curry in a must-win game in this scenario. I think I would be crazy to bet against Steph Curry to be quite honest. He's unbelievable in games like this. The team rallies around him in games like this and I know the Warriors have had their issues throughout the season with Draymond Green being suspended and kicking people in places he shouldn't. So I think once the playoffs started now that we're kind of in playoff mode, I think the Warriors get it together. They've been here before plenty of times. They're mature enough. They're veteran enough to know what they're doing. I'll lay the two and a half with him and also the Kings on their side for Sacramento they have some injury issues no Malik Monk no Kevin Herter and honestly without Malik Monk the Kings are just a very different team he's kind of that glue guy that they rely on to do every little bit of things on the court for them they're four and six this season without Malik Monk it's not it's not a very stellar record that they have so missing him I think in a must-win big game like this is really gonna hurt them and also the Warriors are just simply playing really well they're playing good basketball down the stretch of the season. They're top five in offensive rating over their last five games. They're top 10 in net rating. I mean, this is a Warriors team that they see the playoffs coming up. They see the postseason. They're getting ready, and they're kind of clamping down the hatches and looking like the Warriors teams of old that we're kind of used to just offensively. They have been phenomenal. So you look at that as a package, and you only have to lay two and a half in a game like this. I will take the Warriors 10 times out of 10 in a game in this situation. Ben, let's look at the other playing game out west.”
118-94 — Sacramento beat Golden State 118-94 in the play-in game; the Warriors lost outright and did not cover -2.5 (ESPN box score).
New Orleans Pelicans moneyline
“So I don't know if you guys have heard the rumor going around about the Lakers wanting to lose this game because they don't want to face the Nuggets in the first-round series. I don't know anything about that. I don't know what they're thinking in that scenario, but I am. taking the Pelicans to win this game. And I see a lot of people on the Lakers liking LeBron in a scenario like this. And I think you could use the same logic. You don't want to bet against LeBron in a scenario like this. However, the Lakers do lose. They have another chance to win and make it into the playoffs if they do lose a game like this. But honestly, I'm just fading the Lakers off a really good game that they had over the weekends against this Pelicans team. The Pelicans did not play great. They gave up 17 fouls. They gave up 68 points in the paint. I don't think we're going to see a similar scenario this night around. They have Brandon Ingram back for his second game after he was out for about three and a half weeks with an injury. He kind of got used to playing with the team. He played a little under 25 minutes in that first game back this weekend, and I think he's supposed to get a little bit more minutes for this game tonight, and I think the chemistry and the team flow will be a little bit easier for them as well. Also, the Pelicans, even without Brandon Ingram, have been shooting pretty well. They're top 10 in true shooting percentage, and I think a team that shoots well, they get to the line off and they get fouled. I don't think they lose a game as poorly as they did against the Lakers this weekend. I like them to win. I'm fading the Lakers. I'm fading LeBron. AD, we don't know how serious his injury is. I know this might make a lot of people upset, but I'm going to ride the Pelicans against the Lakers. It is interesting that the Pelicans are one and a half point favorites tonight, despite”
110-106 — Los Angeles Lakers beat New Orleans 110-106 in the play-in game, so the Pelicans moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
Chicago Bulls first half -1.5
“It is interesting that the Pelicans are one and a half point favorites tonight, despite losing by 30 plus and 40 plus to the Lakers this year, right? A little fishy there. If we go towards Wednesday's play-in game in the East, you and I, Ben, we're both located here in Chicago. Our Chicago Bulls are up and down throughout the season. Like, that's just kind of the M.O., but so are the Atlanta Hawks. So where are you going in this one? Yeah, I don't know how much bias is baked into this bet. I'm going to lay it with the Chicago Bulls. I'm honestly might even going to lay it first half for the Bulls as well at minus one and a half. I really like this spot for the Bulls, and you talk about it. The Bulls are a very up-and-down team, and I love betting on Chicago after losses. And we saw a tough one to end their season against New York, and we saw one against the Hawks at the United Center a couple weeks ago. I was at that game. The Bulls gave up 19 three-pointers to the Atlanta Hawks. I don't think that's going to happen again. I think the Bulls are a good enough team to bounce back in a scenario like this. They're going to be at home. It's a fade against what really is a bad Atlanta Hawks team. They have the sixth worst net rating down the stretch of the season. this season so over the like last 10 games or so they've just been playing bad basketball um and there's a reason that they are the 10th seed in the east they had a chance to maybe make the ninth and they just played poorly they they just are not a good team the bulls again got wild by them last game i think it's a good comeback game for them and also i want to take a look at nikola vucevic for a second because if there's been a hater of vuce uh count me in on that however i have to give him his flowers he been playing pretty good basketball down the stretch of this season Normally he about a 29 three shooter Over his last 10 games or so 37 from downtown So Vuc is coming into old Nikola Vucic form for the playoffs, and he's going to be a big aspect of how that Bulls team operates their offense. I like the Bulls in this scenario. I'm going to take them first half.”
Chicago led Atlanta 73-67 at halftime of the play-in game (final Bulls 131, Hawks 116), covering Bulls first-half -1.5 (ESPN box score). (Halftime: Bulls 73, Hawks 67)
Orlando Magic to win the series (+150)
“admitted we're not mentally ready for the bright lights of the postseason. They get another crack at it against the Orlando Magic. Do you think that experience helps them out in this series? yeah i think so uh i i like the magic to win this series i saw the series prices like plus 150 earlier last in the weekend it was like plus 160 i i honestly don't know why the number is so high for the magic i think matchup wise orlando matches up really well with cleveland and truly i just don't believe in the cavaliers they're not a very good team they're very inconsistent you know we talked about the hawks and the bulls being inconsistent to me the calves are just as if not more inconsistent you just don't know what you're going to get night in the night out Donovan Mitchell was was absolutely furious at his team for not giving his all for some games especially down the stretch and that's not a problem you want to have with like 10 or 15 games to go they they're just an untrustworthy team 18 and 24 against teams over 500 they don't really play well against very good teams and I consider the Magic a very good team they're top 15 in net rating the Cavs have a negative net rating they're 20th in the NBA down the stretch of the season over the last month or So it's just, they're not a good team. I can get plus 150 for a team who has better matchups with Paolo Bencaro, Franz Wagner. I don't know who on the Cavs is going to be able to defend them over a course of a seven game series. I'll take, I'll take plus 150 for this magic team. I like them. They're young, they're hungry, and they're going against the Cavs team who I”
Cleveland beat Orlando 106-94 in Game 7 to win the first-round series 4-3; Orlando did not win the series (ESPN recap). (Cavaliers won series 4-3 (Game 7: Cavaliers 106, Magic 94))
Denver Nuggets to win the NBA championship (+300)
“Let's talk NBA champion. Who is hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy this season? All right, so I've come on this show the past couple weeks and even the past month, and I have been talking very highly on the Denver Nuggets. So it just makes sense to me to give the Denver Nuggets their flowers, and I think I'm going to bet them. I've already bet them to win the title. I think I'm going to bet them again to win the title around plus 300. This team, to me, is an absolute juggernaut. They have the best player in the world, Nikola Jokic, in my opinion. They have one of the best coaches, Michael Malone, and Jokic around him has probably the best surrounding cast a superstar can have with Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Contavious Caldwell-Pope. Everybody on that Nuggets starting lineup plays a very specific role and they play it to perfection. And to me, a team going up against the Nuggets, I just don't see a way for them to win in a seven-game series. They're just going to be beat down by tremendous strategy, great players, good shooting, good defense. The Nuggets have it all. They're extremely balanced, have a lot of talent. And to me, there's no one in the NBA, no team in the NBA that can really stack up against them. I know people are worried about the Celtics, and hopefully we get a Nuggets-Celtics-NBA finals because that would be a lot of fun. But in the end, to me, the Nuggets are just the best team in the NBA by a pretty far margin, so I'll take plus 300 for them to win it all. And if you like the Celtics, I understand they're kind of a team”
Boston beat Dallas in five games to win the 2024 NBA Finals; Denver did not win the championship (ESPN). (2024 NBA champion: Boston Celtics (beat Mavericks 4-1))
Indiana Pacers to win the series
“Yeah, if the threes aren't falling for Boston, they could be in a little bit of hot water. The Bucs also could be in a little bit of hot water if Giannis is not fully healthy. It sounds like he won't be playing in at least game one, potentially even more. But whether or not you have any bets in that series, just how are you assessing that series with the Giannis injury information? And then also knowing that the Pacers beat the Bucs four out of five times this season. yeah and as a guy who loves nba drama i would have loved to have janice play this entire series because him and the and the pacers have some heavy drama going back towards last season but even without janice i think the bucks can be a little bit dangerous uh you know they have shooters and and dame honestly didn't find that chemistry completely throughout the entire season with janice so if he's able to kind of play his own game in the context of that bucks offense he the bucks still have a pretty decent shot at winning this series but i love the pacers i just love everything about them. All their players are very fun. They play a very fun style of basketball. And when they're at their best, they are a very difficult team to beat because they can beat you from inside. They can beat you from outside. Their defense at times can really step up. I would probably take the Pacers to win the series. Now you're not getting them at the best number because of this Giannis news. But I simply, again, you talk about teams you don't trust. The Bucs are just an untrustworthy team. I just, they are very tough to read. Sometimes they lose games they shouldn't. They give up leads when they have them. They're just sometimes you watch them play and you're just thinking like, do they care? Do they care if they win this game or not? So to me, I'm never going to put money on a team like that. And a team like the Pacers, who you talked about, they have a great record against the Bucs. This is the team that played all out in the in-season tournament. I think this is a team that's ready for the playoffs. They're ready to make some noise. The world's going to hear about Tyrese Halliburton yet again. I'm really excited for this Pacers team. So if I'm making a bet on a series, I'm betting the Pacers. Game one, might bet the Bucs, fade the injury report a little bit. Maybe get Milwaukee in a little good number, but I love the Pacers in this series. Yeah, you're right. The drama will certainly be there between these two”
Indiana beat Milwaukee 4-2 in the first round, clinching in Game 6, so the Pacers series pick won (ESPN). (Pacers won series 4-2)
Los Angeles Clippers +3
“I'll take the three points with him on the road.”
SAC 109, LAC 95 — Kings beat Clippers 109-95 on 4/2/2024; LA's margin of -14 busts the Clippers +3 spread (ESPN box score).
Dallas Mavericks moneyline
“But I do like the Dallas Mavericks money line.”
GS 104, DAL 100 — Warriors beat Mavericks 104-100 on 4/2/2024; Dallas moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
Los Angeles Clippers -6.5
“I'm going to take the Clippers in this game laying the six and a half.”
108-107 — Clippers beat the 76ers 108-107 (ESPN box score); Clippers won by only 1, failing to cover -6.5.
Philadelphia 76ers +9
“I'm taking the 76ers tonight against them at plus nine.”
PHX 115, PHI 102 — Suns beat the 76ers 115-102; Philadelphia +9 lost by 13, no cover (ESPN).
Cleveland Cavaliers +8
“But I think the Cavs plus eight has got to be the move here.”
105-104 — Cleveland beat Boston 105-104 on March 5, 2024, winning outright, so Cavaliers +8 covered easily (ESPN box score).
Denver Nuggets to win NBA championship (+475)
“I've already bet Nuggets to win the finals at plus 475.”
The Boston Celtics won the 2023-24 NBA championship, beating Dallas 4-1 in the Finals, so Denver did not win (ESPN). (2023-24 NBA champion: Boston Celtics)
Phoenix Suns first half +5.5
“I'm gonna go Suns plus five and a half for the first half.”
117-107 — Per the ESPN box score, Phoenix led Denver 65-50 at halftime (28-32 in Q1, 37-18 in Q2), so Suns first-half +5.5 covered by 15; Phoenix went on to win the full game 117-107 in overtime. (Suns led 65-50 at halftime)