Analyst · 199-298-3 on settled picks
| League | moneyline | prop | total | spread | parlay | other | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 116-138+3% | 61-144-24% | 9-7+23% | 9-5+20% | 3-4+41% | 1-0 | 199-298-6% |
“[8:44] other way, but I still think there's going to be enough casual action with that. I also have a [8:49] little bit of Ian Gary money line.”
Islam Makhachev defeated Ian Machado Garry by unanimous decision. (Islam Makhachev def. Ian Machado Garry via unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47))
“[8:49] little bit of Ian Gary money line. The bet I really like is Ian Gary's point spread over at [8:53] DraftKings. The plus nine and a half is minus 120”
Ian Machado Garry stayed within the aggregate judge-point spread. (Scorecards: 49-46, 49-46, 48-47; aggregate margin 7 points)
“[9:33] And then Sean's last bet, which I'm really excited about, Ian Gary over 33 and a half [9:37] significant strikes. [9:39] Right before I saw Sean put this in our sheet, someone in the Discord was asking like, this [9:44] bet's a lock, right? [9:45] Like if this goes long, he's probably pretty easily going to cover that. [9:49] That was my gut reaction too. [9:50] I didn't think that hard about it because I saw, you know, Sean in it and other people [9:54] I respect all saying the same thing. [9:55] the only way that goes under is if he gets finished early and we're also all picking against [10:00] that so i've got another unit on that one we'll have way too much on the ian gary hype train here”
Ian Machado Garry stayed below the significant-strikes line. (Ian Machado Garry: 29 significant strikes landed)
“[16:50] That rivers and other books that use their line have Jillian Robertson under three and [16:54] a half takedowns at plus money plus one Oh five.”
Gillian Robertson stayed under the takedown line. (Gillian Robertson: 1 takedown landed on 3 attempts)
“[17:02] But even if she does over one and a half takedowns is minus one 60 on draft game. [17:06] So if she lands at two or three, you cover both bets. [17:09] If you structure those bets right and you only win one, you'll lose a little bit because the price isn't big enough to pay it off. [17:15] But with such a small sample size event, two and three are probably the two most likely number of takedowns she finishes with over this fight.”
Gillian Robertson stayed under the takedown line. (Gillian Robertson: 1 takedown landed on 3 attempts)
“[22:38] I have a couple. [22:39] One is barely qualifying as an underdog at this point, which is Vicente Luque. [22:43] He's now, I think you can still get plus 102 is maybe the best I'm seeing. [22:48] I gave him out on Monday in my luck ratings at plus 124 against Treshawn Gore.”
Tresean Gore defeated Vicente Luque by unanimous decision. (Tresean Gore def. Vicente Luque via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28))
“[25:22] This is a long shot. [25:23] It's a bit of a personal slash cheeky one. [25:25] I'm putting a tiny sprinkle on Jeremiah Wells in the opener at plus 700.”
Jeremiah Wells submitted Myktybek Orolbai. (Jeremiah Wells def. Myktybek Orolbai via submission (guillotine choke), R3 1:24)
“[31:36] What I have is that you line me up perfectly because our next section as regular listeners know is the top props section And my favorite prop on this card is Jalen Turner and Cowie Fernandez ends in KO at minus 135”
Jalin Turner defeated Kaue Fernandes by knockout. (Jalin Turner def. Kaue Fernandes via KO, R1 0:39)
“[33:21] And then I will also have a little bit on Kowie knockout small. [33:23] I think that's better than his money line. [33:25] I think he will either get Jalen Turner out of there or lose is my general view on this fight [33:31] Turner kind of an underrated grappler I think will be enough bigger and stronger that he's just [33:35] kind of hard to control on the ground wouldn't shock me if we saw a submission or if Turner [33:40] limped metaphorically and literally to the finish line in a decision but at the prices we're getting [33:44] I think it's upwards of plus 400 if you look at the right books Cowie Fernandez knockout is a bet [33:50] I will have”
Jalin Turner knocked out Kaue Fernandes. (Jalin Turner def. Kaue Fernandes via KO, R1 0:39)
“[35:54] uh real quick before i get to any props you might want to give us the other prop bet i have right [36:00] now is jafael tobias i'm not sure how he pronounces i'm going with jafael because it's more fun [36:04] my sub over lucas fernando this is a pretty classic i don't i don't think he's gonna win [36:09] but if he's going to that's how he's gonna win yeah yeah uh tobias is not a great striker he's [36:16] He has the athletic tools, but he just looks kind of awkward on his feet. [36:19] I have some notes written down that just... [36:21] He can do it, and he can overwhelm people on the regional scene [36:24] just by being bigger, faster, meaner, more bipolar, if you will. [36:28] That's his nickname, for those who don't know. [36:30] Was given a very soft matchup on the Contender Series [36:32] against a big chubby kickboxer who, like, [36:34] literally the only tape I could find on his Contender Series opponent [36:37] was him hosting cardio kickboxing classes. [36:40] And he did the right thing, took him down, submitted him. [36:43] Got a couple takedowns on our boy, D.R. Nagoze. [36:46] who we talked about last week, [36:47] consensus bet bet of Sean and I, [36:49] best bets of Sean and I that hit, [36:51] and we gave some props to you [36:52] with your breakdowns of his case as well. [36:54] Hey, thanks, man. [36:55] But Tobias took him down, [36:56] attempted some submissions, [36:58] didn't happen. [36:59] Fernando, who he was fighting this time, [37:01] very good kickboxer, [37:02] was forced to grapple a little bit [37:03] because his Contender Series opponent [37:05] was Cesar Almeida, [37:06] like an elite level kickboxer. [37:09] Had a good fight, you know, [37:10] compelling fight, [37:11] got outstruck on the feet, [37:12] has looked really good since. [37:14] I think of this day as standing [37:15] for any length of time [37:16] and Fernando's either going to finish Tobias or just pull away massively. [37:20] Coming off a leg kick, one of his own, just really good Muay Thai, [37:23] all the things you'd expect, taller, longer. [37:26] But if he gets taken down, that's Tobias' one shot, [37:28] and we're getting pretty big plus money on it. [37:30] Best I'm seeing right now is plus 650. [37:32] It's moved around a little bit in that range. [37:34] Anything north of plus 500, I'm not saying it should be his money line, [37:38] but it should be pretty close to his money line, [37:39] because I don't see another path here for Tobias.”
Lucas Fernando stopped Rafael Tobias by technical knockout. (Lucas Fernando def. Rafael Tobias via TKO, R3 1:10)
“[41:48] transitions going. My best slash final bet, Dan Tom, is Remy's Brahimai. I got him at minus 128.”
Neil Magny defeated Ramiz Brahimaj by technical knockout. (Neil Magny def. Ramiz Brahimaj via TKO, R2 3:20)
“[6:14] to one. And you can get that as high as plus 265. Billy's going to take the dog shot here on Gamrot [6:19] at plus 125.”
Mateusz Gamrot lost to Quillan Salkilld by submission. (Quillan Salkilld defeated Mateusz Gamrot by submission)
“[11:23] You don't like the fight to get to a third round, though. [11:25] You're betting the fight to not start round three. [11:28] Fight doesn't start round three at minus 145.”
The Ferreira-Quarantillo fight started round 3 and ended by unanimous decision. (Fight started round 3; Ferreira won by unanimous decision)
“[16:57] Steven Asplen about minus 300 against Guillerme Pat at plus 245 [17:01] in the heavyweight division. [17:02] Pat, an inch taller, three-inch reach advantage, four years older. [17:06] Asplen cardio kickboxer pours volume on his opponents. [17:09] Pat should have the better power of the pair. [17:13] Curious who you think is the better grappler of these two, [17:16] what your price target on Pat is, [17:18] and how you think he should pursue the fight. [17:20] Is he going to grapple at all? [17:21] What's his fighting style? [17:23] Yeah, I'm taking both heavyweight underdogs just to give a little spoiler here. [17:27] I'm very strongly considering this a package deal.”
Steven Asplund defeated Guilherme Pat by unanimous decision. (Steven Asplund def. Guilherme Pat via unanimous decision, R3 5:00)
“[18:28] Other heavyweight bout, Luis Southerland about minus 190 going up against Jose Montagna. [18:33] plus 160 for the debut punt.”
Jose Montanha da Silva submitted Louie Sutherland. (Jose Montanha da Silva def. Louie Sutherland via submission (RNC), R1 1:50)
“[29:26] your feet which is what amanda lamosh does so tinara under three and a half takedowns is minus [29:30] 135”
Alexia Thainara stayed under the takedown line. (Alexia Thainara: 2 takedowns landed on 6 attempts)
“[30:35] taking the over 51 and a half strikes at minus 115”
Ty Miller cleared the significant-strikes line. (Ty Miller: 133 significant strikes landed)
“[30:05] plus 110 you like Miller's over significant strike prop in addition to him finishing the fight at”
Ty Miller stopped Billy Ray Goff inside the distance. (Ty Miller def. Billy Ray Goff via TKO, R3 0:15)
“[32:07] across one more prop for you uh rich miranda plus 600 plus 1600 by submission against manual sosa [32:15] sosa an inch taller two inch reach advantage but you like miranda's chances of getting this fight”
Manoel Sousa defeated Richie Miranda by unanimous decision. (Manoel Sousa def. Richie Miranda via unanimous decision, R3 5:00)
“[34:07] Nurgezai, minus 135 on the money line. [34:08] I'll probably like up to around minus 150. [34:11] Even minus, yeah, I make it about minus 160. [34:13] So minus 150 would be my cutoff in terms of his money line price. [34:17] And then I also like his inside the distance odds. [34:19] At plus 115, I would take that down to about plus 105 for even money. [34:25] Billy, what are your price targets on Nurgezi? [34:27] And then what led you to him being the best bet this week? [34:30] Yeah, I'm exactly with you in terms of price target. [34:34] I think Nurgezi is a guy I've just thought is better than he's looked. [34:38] Like, I was really high on him coming off the contender series. [34:40] Looked really good in that fight. [34:41] Clean striker, defended some takedowns there. [34:44] All things considered, in his UFC and contender series combined, [34:47] he has 80% takedown defense. [34:49] I'm with you that Bruno Lopez is the better grappler. [34:52] He's landed just 21% of his takedowns, [34:54] and he's only taken down one of the five people he's fought, right? [34:57] So can he actually get takedowns, or is just one guy a really bad wrestler? [35:01] I think Lopez is one of those jiu-jitsu-style fighters [35:05] who has really good submissions if you happen to get to the ground, [35:08] but just not the ability to get it there at a high level. [35:10] And as you pointed out, very little chin or durability, [35:14] which is a problem against DR. [35:16] So I would make DR a pretty considerable favorite here. [35:19] Really like him for DFS, all those other reasons at a moderate price. [35:23] And yeah, the inside the distance or knockout I think is a good play as well. [35:26] But I wish with the price discrepancy being what it is, I think it makes more sense to [35:30] just take the money line and, you know, pay a little bit extra juice.”
Diyar Nurgozhay defeated Bruno Lopes. (Diyar Nurgozhay def. Bruno Lopes via TKO, R1 4:59)
“[7:39] As for my pre-fight bet, though, on the D-Rod over 17.5 significant strikes, it's like minus 110, minus 115, something like that.”
Daniel Rodriguez landed one significant strike, so his over prop lost. (Daniel Rodriguez 1 significant strike)
“[10:42] Jan Blachowicz in the light heavyweight division. Billy and I both like violence in this fight. [10:47] Billy likes Sterling to finish at plus 225.”
Navajo Stirling defeated Jan Blachowicz by KO/TKO, cashing the Stirling inside-the-distance selection. (Stirling defeated Blachowicz by KO/TKO)
“[15:45] shot as well. You're going to take a shot on Marcin Taibura at about plus 280. I think it's [15:49] gotten up actually closer to plus 300 against Alexander Rakic.”
Aleksandar Rakic defeated Marcin Tybura by unanimous decision, so the Tybura moneyline lost. (Rakic defeated Tybura by unanimous decision)
“[18:05] we can ask one more dog for you here on opposite sides of this fight potentially i'm not sure if [18:11] i'm going to fire on matthews rombecki who's long been a podcast favorite so a little disappointed [18:15] you're going up against a guy who was one of our guys i guess no longer your guy kyle preplik [18:21] plus 500 three inches taller four inch reach advantage three years older robecki tends to get [18:28] into absolute brawls, may still have some scar tissue on his face. [18:31] From those brawls, the Preplek could potentially open up. [18:35] Preplek 0-4 in the UFC. [18:36] You like him to get his first UFC winner, [18:38] at least to outfight his plus 500 price tag here. [18:42] How do you see this fight playing out? [18:44] So a couple things. [18:45] He was about to beat Drew Dober in his last fight [18:47] before he got his balls wrecked by Drew Dober [18:49] and decided to come back out and fight, [18:52] even though he clearly wasn't 100%, [18:53] and then Dober finished him. [18:55] Preplek was, if not on the verge of finishing, [18:57] was definitely going to win two out of three rounds there. [18:59] He had Jober hurt pretty bad. [19:01] And the other thing is Rubecki, when he fought Ludovic Klein, [19:04] who's also on this card that we're talking about, [19:07] kind of just got picked up on the feet by a faster, longer, more technical striker. [19:13] Was able to grapple a little bit and take it to a majority decision that Rubecki lost. [19:17] Could have gone either way, that's fair. [19:20] But Preplik kind of fits that same bill. [19:21] He's got some height and length and reach. [19:23] He's a very solid, like, technical striker. [19:26] He's very basic, and I don't mean that as an insult or a compliment, really, [19:30] but he doesn't do anything flashy. [19:31] But he throws straight punches right down the pipe, [19:34] and Rombecki loves to eat straight punches right down the pipe. [19:37] If Rombecki chooses to grapple and really pushes that, [19:40] he'll look close to the price that he is right now. [19:43] But we haven't seen him do that much lately. [19:45] He's out there trying to get fight-of-the-night bonuses [19:47] more than he's trying to win fights. [19:48] If he takes that approach against Propolik, [19:50] I believe Propolik can pick him apart on the outside, [19:53] outstrike him, maybe put him away, [19:55] just due to all the damage Rombecki has taken. [19:57] I'm not sure about that, [19:58] but it's also kind of now or never for Preplik [20:01] and maybe Rombecki after losing three in a row. [20:04] So this could be a loser leaves town match [20:06] despite Rombecki being so entertaining. [20:08] I don't think either of them are going to come out [20:10] and try to wall and stall their way to a boring victory, [20:13] which should favor Preplik as long as it lasts. [20:16] Yeah, I like Rombecki on the point spread or by decision. [20:19] Those were the two angles I potentially considered for this. [20:22] So I do think he gets back to the grappling here. [20:24] I didn't see takedown props up yet, but that was essentially like the theory I had is he's going to get back to the grappling in this fight. [20:30] Maybe the takedowns is the best approach in terms of betting. [20:33] He should. [20:34] Yeah, he absolutely should. [20:36] I'm not confident that he will. [20:37] But to kind of go back against what I just said, if you lost three in a row, maybe you just go back to like the safest path to win. [20:44] With all that said, probably like it's plus 500 or a little bit longer. [20:47] So if there's a 20% chance that doesn't happen, that's how I arrived at PropLuck.”
Mateusz Rebecki defeated Kyle Prepolec by KO/TKO, so the Prepolec moneyline lost. (Rebecki defeated Prepolec by KO/TKO)
“[25:42] i also like grad on the point spread at minus three and a half at minus 110 i think he has some [25:48] 10 rate 10 8 round upside potential in addition to the finishing upside that it covers too do you [25:56] have any thoughts on this fight billy yeah i actually like the grad minus three and a half on [26:00] that point spread. I see your”
Bogdan Grad defeated Dennis Buzukja by submission, which covers the selected point handicap. (Grad defeated Buzukja by submission)
“[29:28] You like a submission prop for Stephanie Luciano at about plus 470.”
Stephanie Luciano defeated Marina Spasic by submission, cashing the submission-method selection. (Luciano defeated Spasic by submission)
“[32:33] I put two units on her money line. [32:35] It was like minus 345 earlier in the week, which was just terrible.”
The listed Milosevic-Sygula matchup did not occur; the official card instead lists Nina Milosevic against Hailey Cowan.
“[35:18] but you got plus 120 on him billy earlier in the week”
Noah Gugnon defeated Milos Janicic by submission, so the Gugnon moneyline won. (Gugnon defeated Janicic by submission)
“Round one is plus 1800.”
Guskov lost by TKO in Round 5 at 2:41, so the Round 1 win prop lost. (Guskov loss by TKO, Round 5, 2:41; prop Round 1)
“Round two is plus 2500.”
Guskov lost by TKO in Round 5 at 2:41, so the Round 2 win prop lost. (Guskov loss by TKO, Round 5, 2:41; prop Round 2)
“[12:20] I do. I actually have a prop on this one, so this is one of the ones we're blending. [12:24] I am betting on this fight to end by either fighter submission at plus 500. [12:28] That's via FanDuel, so a little bit higher there.”
The fight ended by unanimous decision rather than submission, so the submission prop lost. (Zaynukov over Rzepecki by unanimous decision, 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
“[21:29] But you also like Davis plus 205 in the money line.”
Davis lost by unanimous decision, so his moneyline lost. (Aliev over Davis by unanimous decision, 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
“[21:32] And then in the finish only market at minus 125.”
The fight went to a unanimous decision, triggering the finish-only market's decision refund. (Aliev over Davis by unanimous decision, 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
“[24:04] Abubakar Vigaev, about minus 265, [24:08] going up against your pick, [24:09] Sigid Izagokmayev, around plus 220.”
Izagakhmaev lost by unanimous decision, so his moneyline lost. (Vagaev over Izagakhmaev by unanimous decision, 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
“[27:05] and Billy's ticket, because Billy's betting [27:07] Fortune plus 3.5 [27:08] at around plus 110.”
Fortune was stopped by TKO, so his point spread lost. (Fortune loss by TKO, Round 3, 1:12)
“[39:01] but I'm just taking inside the distance [39:03] at minus 180 or so”
Patterson won by TKO in Round 2 at 3:06, so his inside-the-distance prop won. (Patterson TKO, Round 2, 3:06)
“if there is any kind of corruption or anything like that certainly favors the Bexat side he also has the stoppage and the finishing upside and you know if we think it's going to be close as a floor and the ceiling as a knockout i really want to be on that side i bet him at plus 136 for half a unit”
Jean Matsumoto defeated Bekzat Almakhan (host's nickname "Shavkat Omakan") via unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night Baku. (Matsumoto def. Almakhan, UD (29-28 x3))
“I think you have Camilo to land takedowns. And then how do you see this fight playing out? Are you interested in betting anything else? Yeah, his over one and a half takedown prop is plus 120. I think at plus money, that's kind of a smash.”
Matheus Camilo finished Nazim Sadykhov via a pure-striking first-round TKO (right hand + ground-and-pound at 1:31-1:34) — no takedowns were landed in the fight.
“One bet that we're in full agreement on for this weekend, Javier Reyes at about, well, you took him at minus 155. I took him, or I'm going to take him at about minus 175. I make Reyes minus 240. He's my biggest edge on a projected favorite for this weekend. Con Oafley seemed like a fairly public underdog. Reyes, seven inch reach advantage here. Very aggressive. Oafley, minimal power. I don't really see how he wins minutes in this fight unless Reyes just essentially fades. So I would take Reyes up to about minus 220, minus 225. Where do you like him to, and how do you see him winning? Yeah, hard for me to answer that. Like I said, I gave him out. He was the very first bet I made this week. And usually in my luck ratings, I bet a half unit to win a half unit. This was a full unit bet on Reyes for me.”
Javier Reyes lost to Kaan Ofli by submission (arm-triangle choke) at 4:16 of Round 1 at UFC Fight Night Baku.
“but I'm just going to play the ends inside the distance at minus 115.”
Manel Kape def. Kyoji Horiguchi — UFC's official scorecards record a third-round TKO, so the fight ended inside the distance. (TKO, round 3, 2:42)
“no sean you have two to lava by sub plus 1100 do you know what round all of his submission victories have come in i would infer that they all come in round one and i very curious as a result to see what the combined odds are for those two together yeah i didn look at that they have all been in round one actually his only submission wins in the ufc i believe were in two of his last three fights both in round one um the other question i could pose to you but i'm going to answer instead is that 12 is in fact greater than 11 so you get 12 to 1 odds if you play round one”
Navajo Stirling def. Ion Cutelaba — UFC's official scorecards record Stirling's second-round TKO, so Cutelaba did not win in round one. (TKO, round 2, 3:23)
“My model thought the lines were pretty accurate here, but you did like the underdog. Otari took him out about plus 170. Where do you like him down to and what did you see here? Yeah, so I broke him down when he fought Josias Musasa on the Contender Series and said, you know, he's going to get in there and brawl and create kind of a high variance fight. And those are the kind of guys that if you're getting plus 170, plus 175 on that I'm willing to be on.”
Shane Collins def. Otari Tanzilovi — UFC's official scorecards record Collins's decision win over Tanzilovi. (Unanimous decision: 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
“actually want to play christian rodriguez now that he's at minus 200 i think i bet him minus 170 ish”
Christian Rodriguez def. Hyder Amil — UFC's official scorecards record Rodriguez's first-round submission victory. (Guillotine submission, round 1, 3:43)
“my favorite bet probably on the card is the alex pay to take down at plus 600”
Ciryl Gane def. Alex Pereira — UFC Stats records no completed Pereira takedown, so the selection lost. (Alex Pereira takedowns: 0 of 0)
“I'm betting Garcia KO at plus 260.”
Diego Lopes def. Steve Garcia — UFC's official scorecards record Lopes's second-round knockout, so Garcia's knockout selection lost. (KO, round 2, 2:42)
“Also, the fight ends via KO at minus 110.”
Diego Lopes def. Steve Garcia — UFC's official scorecards record the second-round knockout, so the fight-KO selection won. (KO, round 2, 2:42)
“in his career at 37 so I think it's probably I feel better just having the money line I do like your angle of trying to get plus money on both sides feel good about it either way obviously if you have Bonfim at plus 105 and then you can get Bilal plus two plus 300 you want to structure those bets So you make decent money either way rather than 0 units or however it would work out if you lose the Bilal side. So not a huge bet for me, something I took earlier in the week for half a unit.”
Gabriel Bonfim defeated Belal Muhammad by unanimous decision (50-45 x3) in the UFC Vegas 118 main event. (Bonfim def. Muhammad, unanimous decision 50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
“Second fight on the card, women's flyweight division, Jaisla Chavez going up against Yuneisy Duben. You like Chavez to finish the fight at plus 115. Should have a big physicality advantage here. And Duben doesn't seem like she's made for this level. I haven't watched Chavez's Contender Series fight. You did the background on Hunter previously. What was your take of her going into Contender Series, and what do you think of her coming out of it? I actually didn't go back and read this one. I probably should have done that before the podcast, but it was a tremendous fight with her and Sofia Montenegro. I believe both women's nickname is some version of the witch in their native language, which I definitely appreciated as a nickname connoisseur. But it was one of those where both fighters got a contract, despite, you know, obviously one of them losing. and she is very aggressive Chavez that is I believe more of a grappler coming into it her record prior to the contender series was a little sketchy she had never beat an opponent with a win say the same thing about Yuneisy Duben who had never beat an opponent who had fought before all of her opponents coming into the contender series were debutantes and she landed a kind of fluky knockout over Shannon Clark which I did bet on her to win that one I was very pleased with the results there but i think that was one of the rare instances where we truly can call it luck and not you practiced this technique so many times because she had never beaten a fighter who had appeared in a prior fight heading into that one So I don think Duben is very good to your point or built for this level First fight following that got knocked out in the first round. Chavez is very aggressive, kind of more skilled everywhere. Obviously a huge favorite, so to cut some of that, I'm taking the plus money on her to get a finish.”
Jeisla Chaves beat Duben by split decision (a points win, not a finish).
“click publish. This was the one bet I had in there, though, was Luis Felipe Diaz, who I tracked in the app. So award-winning Action Network app, you know what to do, follow us. I promise you it didn't move in the 30 minutes after I posted it like Tuesday morning. So even non-pro subscribers could still get that minus 162 I got. He's minus 175 now, which I think is probably about the limit of where I would go with that.”
Luis Felipe Dias defeated Yi Sak Lee via 1st-round TKO at UFC Macau. (Dias def. Lee, TKO, Round 1, 3:40)
“I talked about this one in my luck ratings where I said I was on Costa, thought he was undervalued, thought the line was going to continue to grow. I said that when the line was plus 165. Got that real wrong. Noticed on Tuesday, course corrected a little bit and grabbed the plus 140 before it dropped anymore. and it has continued to fall ever since.”
Arnold Allen defeated Melquizael Costa via unanimous decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46) at UFC Vegas 117.
“No mention of Ronda Rousey in March of this year, where I said a 25% return over two months on Ronda Rousey might not come around again for another 20 years. That was obviously when she was minus 400. I have a ton between minus four and minus 500 average price, probably about minus 450. If I didn't have roughly eight units on that right now, I'd still bet her at minus 590.”
Ronda Rousey submitted Gina Carano via armbar in 17 seconds at MVP MMA: Rousey vs. Carano on Netflix, May 16, 2026.
“My conspiracy theory here is that there's not a lot of bad blood between these two. They're trying of build something. They've been very friendly and they want to put on a show. I think Ronda kind of carries her into the second round. Hence that round two bet. The fight to start round two is only like plus 120 or something like that, which didn't really make sense to me. If Rousey is such a huge favorite that I'm sorry, the fight to end in round two was not a great price. You would think it would be a bigger difference, but yeah, I think Rousey probably coasts a little bit, but neither of them have the cardio to carry this for 25 minutes. They might have the cardio to carry it for seven or And Rousey spent a lot of time in the WWE since she was fighting So carrying a fight putting on a performance selling things That all going to be in her wheelhouse And the motivation is not there to just murder Carano She wants to make this a success, make money for everyone, all that. It's not going to be a big bet for me, especially because I'm so overexposed on Rousey, but 0.1 or 0.2 units on her round two, I think it's the way to go. Could probably get you to sign off in an over half a round,”
Rousey beat Carano by armbar in 17 seconds of round 1, not round 2, so the round-2 prop lost.
“on the Mike Perry, Nate Diaz, Welterweight bout because I had a suspicion that Nate Diaz, as he always is, would be a public underdog this week. And lo and behold, 60% of the topology votes in a fight where he is plus 150. So that is flipped about 20% from expectations. Another data source that I use has him at about 55% of selections in the fight. And bettors, by and large, are backing platinum Mike Perry in this matchup. Now, Diaz does have a size advantage, 5-inch reach advantage, specifically in the boxing. But I prefer Perry's speed. I prefer his power. I prefer his durability. And I would consider playing Mike Perry by decision about plus 190. I do believe this is a five-round fight, though. Is that correct? Yeah, the top three are all five-round fights. If this is the one that that might actually matter. Yeah, I think I think it may matter as well. And it may matter for more reasons than it gives Nate a window to come back if Mike is able to tire out. But also him surviving for 25 minutes if he's getting damage put on him makes me a little bit more concerned. So I actually more inclined to lay the minus 180 with Perry as opposed to taking the plus 190 by decision I even think you can bet Perry pre and maybe find a live angle on Diaz live He gets hurt, survives. He'll eventually work his way back in. Could probably get a big plus money number. Over four and a half rounds, as I said, Perry's about plus 190 to win by decision. Over four and a half rounds is a pick-em price. So I'm curious, Billy, as to your take on whether you think this one goes all 25 minutes and then who you like on the money line. yeah i am on the diaz side he's he's a much better mma fighter than mike perry like mike perry has one mma win since 2019 and it was over mickey gall who was like barely a ufc fighter and”
Nate Diaz lost to Mike Perry via 2nd-round TKO (corner stoppage) at MVP MMA 1. (Perry def. Diaz, TKO (corner stoppage), Round 2, 5:00)
“Fight is minus 900 to end inside the distance. But I would prefer the JDS side at plus money. and as we transition to our top underdogs for this weekend, Billy, I know you do as well. So what price did you get on JDS? Where do you like him down to and how do you see this fight playing up? Yeah, I got JDS at plus 330 a couple days ago, posted about that in the action discord.”
Junior dos Santos was knocked out by Robelis Despaigne in Round 1 at MVP MMA 1. (Despaigne def. dos Santos, KO, Round 1, 2:00)
“but against another very low level fighter. Vianna was very surprised to see this price I would have assumed if I would have assumed if the line was this wide that it would be Vianna who was a minus 10 favorite and not Ardellian so very surprised by this money line I'd imagine you were as well considering this is a consensus dog play between us for this weekend so where do you like Vianna down to and how did you analyze the fight I mean if her if her odds start with a plus I'm betting Pollyanna Vianna or she should absolutely be a favorite. It's just one of those things that Ardellian's record looks better. She's 2-2 in the”
Polyana Viana lost to Alice Ardelean via 2nd-round submission (capsule lock) at UFC Vegas 117. (Ardelean def. Viana, submission (capsule lock), Round 2, 4:36)
“All right, I'm letting everyone behind the curtain here. I messed this up. I put Diaz at plus 175 in our underdogs. I meant Nathan Daniel Diaz, not Juan Diaz. No it not because with that said I am betting Juan Diaz I am taking his alternate point spread at plus 3 which gets you to plus 125 I had been looking at various versions of his point spread all week and I saw that you liked the over in this one, and that was all the justification I needed.”
Juan Diaz won outright via 2nd-round submission; a fighter finish automatically covers their own underdog round/point spread. (Diaz def. Wellmaker, submission (RNC), Round 2, 4:08)
“That would be the value way I bet the fight But if I was just playing a money line I would agree with your bet here on the favorite because I think Bernardo Sopai has more ways to win So where do you like him to He's currently around minus 155. Yeah, so I bet him at minus 160 earlier in the week, and I'll take another L on this one going the wrong way.”
Bernardo Sopai (Sopaj) defeated Timmy Quamba (Cuamba) via 2nd-round submission (rear-naked choke) at UFC Vegas 117. (Sopai def. Quamba, submission (RNC), Round 2, 2:25)
“You like Santos on the money line, but where do you like him to? Yeah, so this is the luck ratings working as they were intended to, because I gave out Santos at minus 142. Monday has continued to shift his way.”
Daniel Santos was TKO'd by Dooho Choi via body shot in Round 2 at UFC Vegas 117. (Choi def. Santos, TKO (body shot), Round 2, 4:29)
“i'm on strickland here on the money line at plus 450”
Sean Strickland defeated Khamzat Chimaev by split decision to reclaim the UFC middleweight title at UFC 328.
“I'm going to target Joshua Van live. You like him pre-fight. You took him plus one 50 earlier in the week. It closer to plus one 40 Now”
Joshua Van stopped Tatsuro Taira in Round 5 to retain the UFC flyweight title at UFC 328.
“yeah i'm on alvarez here it has started to then the line has started to now rebound back towards amoslav a little bit so i'm seeing as high as plus 160 now”
Yaroslav Amosov submitted Joel Alvarez via arm-triangle choke at 1:13 of Round 2 at UFC 328.
“accolade to have dawson's wrestling is better but you only gotta hit them once so we're getting plus 275 on the knockout prop. I believe you said his money line is currently plus 140. You shouldn't get double the price on that. Those numbers should be much closer. So just systemically, I'm on that. Rombetsky can crack.”
Mateusz Rebecki lost to Grant Dawson by 3rd-round rear-naked-choke submission at UFC 328; no KO win.
“The other middleweight bout, middleweight favorite you're discussing Baisangur Susurkaev going up against Jordan Santos. Susserkayev, 25 years old, has been hyped up a lot by UFC. Hasn't necessarily fulfilled the hype, at least his last fight, as you said. Couldn't get the finish. A bit disappointing, but I think the line is justified here. Do you also see him getting a finish, or do you think Jordan Santos can make this a little bit more competitive? I think Jordan Santos can make this more competitive He better at losing slowly if that makes sense Like you know he fought some guys who can crack a little bit and has managed the risk while not doing as great But Susser Kaiv has finished all of his UFC fights. It's a Teba that actually went to a decision most recently. Susser Kaiv almost didn't finish Eric McConnico, which would have been really sad. But he kind of, it wasn't because he couldn't from all appearances. It seemed like he was just kind of coasting and then decided like, all right you've had your fun i'm less confident in him but susur kiev is just the hamzat protege he's hamzat but more of a striker who uses athleticism to grapple as opposed to hamzat the inverse that's why they're on the same card i think that's the second yeah he fought on the undercard of duplessis versus chumaya for his debut i think they're both pretty safe you're only getting to like minus 430 by parlaying these together but i was on the mma fighting podcast this week with jed michu who has his baby the climb where you try to string like 20 consecutive weeks of minus 500 bets together. If you roll it over the whole time, you can turn 100 bucks into like 20K or something. You won't. Nobody ever does. But it is so much fun along the way, especially when you get seven or eight steps. You got to combine these two guys to get one step of the climb. But I'm restarting fine with that just because it's worth the entertainment value, if nothing else.”
Baisangur Susurkaev submitted Djorden Santos in Round 3 and Atiba Gautier KO'd Ozzy Diaz in Round 2 at UFC 328 — both legs of the favorites parlay hit.
“So you like, and I agree with this take, Jack to get a takedown. at plus 150 over half a takedown. Agree with that assessment. I'll probably be adding it to my card as well.”
Della Maddalena landed a takedown (a late takedown in Round 1) against Prates, clearing over 0.5 takedowns.
“so i will be on madalena pre hoping to get that plus 110”
Carlos Prates defeated Jack Della Maddalena by TKO at 3:17 of round 3 at UFC Fight Night Perth. (Prates wins by TKO, round 3 at 3:17)
“here. Berchek pre-fight money line, his knockout prop is around plus 300. And I would imagine you don't mind the knockout prop for Berchek at plus 300, considering you're looking at this fight to end by KO at, I believe, plus 130? Yeah, that's the best line I saw at the time, obviously, when you're listening to this checkout to see if that has moved at all. The thing for me is Cam Rauston, his original contender series was against Torres Finney, a bunch of takedowns. Then his last two fights have been Cody Brundage and Andre Petrovsky, all pure grapplers. And yes, he did get hurt on the feet with that, which is why I like this fight to end by knockout and agree with your take to an extent.”
Cameron Rowston defeated Robert Bryczek by unanimous decision, so the fight did not end by KO.
“If you can get a minus 130 or better on Thickness, I think I'm on that side. I think he's actually good, and he's only 26, so he should be getting better.”
Colby Thicknesse defeated Vince Morales by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC Fight Night Perth. (Thicknesse wins by unanimous decision)
“If you're betting Solkild, you should probably just bet his finish props. And Billy taking him to win in round one at plus 130 Billy did you consider a round one KO prop as opposed to just the round one prop I think it might you know unless you see a club and sub it might be tough for Saul Kild to get the submission Was there not that big of an odds discrepancy? What were your thoughts aside from just the round one Saul Kild prop? Yeah, I don't know off the top of my head what the difference was, but it wasn't all that large adding KO in there. The thing about it that makes me somewhat confident is Saul Kild can grapple too.”
Quillan Salkilld won by TKO (punches) at 3:29 of Round 1 at UFC Perth.
“half a unit on steel in round one or round two at plus 250”
Kody Steele won by submission (inverted heel hook) at 3:56 of Round 1.
“And then I'm going to have a full unit on his money line at around minus 200.”
Kody Steele defeated Dom Mar Fan by submission (heel hook) in round 1 at UFC Fight Night Perth. (Steele wins by submission, round 1 at 3:56)
“You like Edwards at about plus 200. You also like her round one spread, very similar to the Kyler Phillips approach from last week. you're going to split your wagers between them.”
Joselyne Edwards defeated Norma Dumont by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) at UFC Vegas 116. (Edwards wins by unanimous decision)
“The plus three and a half is about minus 160. Now it is worth noting Phillips was plus 115 last week. That point spread was the same number. It was plus three and a half minus 155. It is relative to how likely the fight is to go to a decision. I think this one is closer to minus 300 to reach a decision. So as a result, you do have to pay a little bit more juice on Joselyne Edwards than you would normally for an underdog in this price range, but Edwards plus three and a half at minus 160 on the point spread.”
Joselyne Edwards defeated Norma Dumont by unanimous decision; Edwards +3.5 on the fight point spread won.
“Let's move on to a fight where we both have plus money bets on. That's Jafa Garcia going up against Alexander Hernandez. not Fluffy Hernandez. Alexander the Great Hernandez. This is in the lightweight division. Garcia about plus 110 to plus 105. Billy likes him as an underdog selection this week. I like this fight to end inside the distance. Maybe a little bit of a contrarian play because Garcia is relatively durable. Typically, Hernandez often does go to a decision, but Hernandez's archetype is typically more as an early finisher, and I'm sure Billy will get into this. When he doesn't get that early finish, he does tend to slow down, if not gas out in the back half of his fight. So I think there's a path for a Hernandez round one finish. I think there's a path for a Garcia round three finish. We'll see what ends up happening in the middle, but I make it closer to plus 120 this fight to end inside distance, minus 120 for it to go to a decision. You can get plus 150 on the fight to end by KO or submission to end inside the distance. That's where my money's going for this fight. Billy, tell me your thoughts on the underdog. Yeah, Rafa Garcia, another guy I've been very impressed with, the improvements recently. I kind of wrote him off early in his career as just a guy or whatever. He's won four of his last five. The one loss came to Grant Dawson, who outgrappled him. And then I noticed when Rafa Garcia gets taken, downs and gets on top, he wins. And when he can't take you down, he doesn't. And I believe he'll be able to do that against Alex Hernandez. Solid takedown defense, 73%. But a lot of that takedown defense is early when he's defending takedowns, getting back up and brawling, and then he just falls apart, as you pointed out, typically after the first round or after about a round and a half. The money has came in on Garcia. I think he was a bigger underdog earlier in this week, so I also wanted to get ahead of it before it flips all the way”
Rafa Garcia defeated Alexander Hernandez by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 116. (Garcia wins by unanimous decision)
“any thoughts on Hidalgo against Eric McConico this weekend? You know who else got knocked out that same night that Hidalgo did against Bo Nickel? Both coming off bad knockout losses at UFC 322. Both were big underdogs there because Meconico fought by Senghor, Susserkayev, also known as Jimmy by Dana White. I think I would probably just take the plus 120 on Vieira. Inside the distance,”
Vieira lost to McConico by unanimous decision; the fight went the distance, so no inside-distance win.
“I told myself I wasn just going to bet on all the legendary Jiu people on this card because there three of them So I trying to find alternate ways to fill that void in my soul without just burning a bunch of money on their money lines And I think Alencar, by submission, is probably the only way she wins this fight, plus 11 to 1. She has four of her pro wins or subs, three of her decisions. At least one of those was a robbery in her favor. Probably another one was, too. We could argue about that later. So, yeah, it's sub or bust for her, and we're getting a great price.”
Talita Alencar won by unanimous decision over Julia Polastri, not by submission.
“You got to go to the round props on DraftKings and go to the point spread and then click over so it's Kyler Phillips minus one and a half because the default is Jordain who's the favorite minus one and a half. you get all the way up to plus 180.”
Kyler Phillips lost to Charles Jourdain by unanimous decision, so the round-1/-1.5 round bet lost.
“I like that better than his plus 130 money line. I also like his plus 130 money line.”
Charles Jourdain defeated Kyler Phillips by unanimous decision (Fight of the Night) — Phillips's moneyline lost. (Jourdain def. Phillips, unanimous decision)
“you're taking him to win the first round, minus one and a half points at plus 180, but you like him to actually stop things over Charles Jourdain in the first round at 9-1. And I can't say I disagree. What led you to that play, Billy? And how do you think it's likely to happen, knockout or submission? I mean, I could see a club and sub, but I think if it happens early, it's via his striking. He's got a great right hand. I watched the fight with Loke Dog, who again, I've comped in a weird way to Charles Jourdain, in part because they both switch stances and then like to throw rear-sided kicks from the left when they're in their left-handed stance but then use jabs and hooks from their right-handed stance which tells me they're both probably left-handed human beings in their regular life but switch to put the left hand in the front for various reasons and kyler phillips just becomes the most right-handed fighter in the world and walks through those with straight rights and body kicks from the rear side all of which is like the textbook what you're supposed to do against an opposite stance fighter. Cracked Loke Dog a couple times. If you go back and watch all his fights, he's landed some big shots early. A lot in very similar situations. And Jordan's going to be bouncing around trying to set up kicks. Might eat a couple. Obviously, we talked about Phillips being much bigger and stronger. I think that translates to more power in here. It'll be a small bet for me.”
Charles Jourdain beat Kyler Phillips by unanimous decision at UFC Winnipeg, so Phillips did not win in round 1.
“I make Castaneda about minus 170. I would bet him up to around minus 160. also show value either on his decision or KO props and not probably going to choose between them. I think I'll just lay the juice on his money line and currently around minus 125. Billy, is this a best bet for you? Is it a pair of final bets for you along with the other one that we're targeting? And then what do you see as Castaneda's likeliest winning method in this fight? Outside of my various Kyler Phillips feelings, this is probably my best bet.”
John Castaneda and Mark Vologdin fought to a majority draw (29-27, 28-28, 28-28) — moneyline bets push on a draw. (Castaneda vs. Vologdin, majority draw)
“But given the vibes, given how much fun it is to be on the Yuri side, plus I do think that grappling edge is there and tips it a little bit better than 50-50, and we're getting minus 112 on Yuri. Everything you said is sharp. and is probably smart and is just so not fun. And this should be fun. Yuri is fighting in Miami. Like, what could be a better time than this? I'm going to be on Yuri about half a unit pre-fight.”
Jiri Prochazka was knocked out by Carlos Ulberg in Round 1 at UFC 327. (Prochazka lost by KO, R1 3:45)
“going to lean to, is Blade is getting a little bit chinny, and if Hokit just blitzes him and murders him right away, I will not be surprised at all. This is a bet for me that is either going to be wrong immediately or takes some time to be right, which I'm a little nervous about.”
Curtis Blaydes lost to Josh Hokit by unanimous decision at UFC 327. (Blaydes lost by unanimous decision)
“But pre-fight, I certainly want Cub Swanson, and I know you do as well, Billy. What's your price target here, and do you also agree on the potential KO? Yeah, I think I'd go down to about minus 120 or so. I'd make him a slight favorite. it i got a cub at plus 108 in my luck ratings first bet i put in this week the logic here for”
Cub Swanson defeated Nate Landwehr by TKO (strikes) at 4:06 of Round 1 at UFC 327. (Swanson def. Landwehr by TKO, R1 4:06)
“The chin maybe never existed for Johnny Walker. the reason I am on the Walker side is because Reyes by KO is minus 105 Johnny Walker by KO I've seen as high as plus 220 it's plus 215 right now at DraftKings and that's a bigger gap than there is between their money line which doesn't make any sense to me like they should both be roughly 90 percent of their win condition should be on the knockout and that proportionally should be the same so on the Walker side not because I feel strongly in him although if I had to flip you know pick a winner straight up i actually probably would go johnny walker then last thing to say about”
Johnny Walker lost to Dominick Reyes by split decision, so the KO bet lost.
“billy's best bet for this weekend is kevin holland at about [49:24] minus 110”
Kevin Holland defeated Randy Brown by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC 327. (Holland def. Brown by unanimous decision)
“Another striker versus grappler matcher, potentially Ethan Ewing against Rafael Estevam in the bantamweight division. I like Estevam as the underdog here. I make this also close to a pick-em fight, so getting plus 125 is fine down to about plus 115. He's the taller man, same reach. Ewing is about the same age as well, but this is a fight where I think Esteban could expose Ewing's grappling defense, his wrestling defense. We saw Ewing come into the UFC poll, big upset over Malcolm Wellmaker, but did not get grappled in that fight. He is going to graveled here the main concern on my end with Esteban is just that he could gaffe himself out but he's moving up in weight class here so I do think he should be able to handle the 15 minutes and the pace a little bit better this is a guy who averages nearly 19 takedown attempts for five minutes of distance doesn't necessarily do a ton on top but he's relentless in pursuing them and will control guys for long stretches just wish he would add a little bit more ground and pound when he is on top of guys but Esteban is the wrestler as the underdog like him down to about plus 115 plus 110 against Ethan Ewing. I'll have another bet on that fight coming up in top prop section. Billy, any thoughts on this one? Yeah, this is the second fight, including the flowers, where I was leaning that way and then saw you put it in the sheet and decided to jump in.”
Ethan Ewing defeated Rafael Estevam by KO (body shot) in round 3 (1:44) at UFC Vegas 115. (Ewing def. Estevam, KO R3 1:44)
“We got a wild nickname coming up with an Italian fighter in a little bit that I will get to But first you have another underdog that you like on this card a Brazil versus Poland matchup in the featherweight division between Jose Delano Delano I not sure how to pronounce that surname and Robert Rujala. Rujala around plus 275. My model actually agrees with you on this one. I make Delano about minus 260. So there is definitely some value in the Rujala side for me. Didn't break this one down in terms of tape. what did you see here in the matchup where do you like Rujala down to yeah Rujala is just being undervalued because he lost in his UFC debut but that came against William Gomi in France which is a tough fight a tough situation all the above Rujala is a really good grappler like he has a bunch of grappling experience before coming to the UFC and Delano Delano whichever it is was taken down twice in his contender series fight that he won by decision good striker but I think Rujala's grappling advantage is big enough in a small cage in particular that if we're getting this kind of price it's it's wild to me like i would dilato deserves to be a favorite but he should be like minus 150 minus 180 not minus 300 so i will take the value here ruchala um point spread also an option on draft kings with that prop being offered i think the money line is the better play i don't remember the price off the top of my head but either of those options make a lot of sense yeah Yeah, it's about plus 275 on the money line for Ruhala.”
Jose Mauro Delano (Bispo) defeated Robert Ruchala by unanimous decision (30-26, 29-27, 29-27) at UFC Vegas 115. (Delano def. Ruchala, unanimous decision)
“Billy, where are you going for your first prop? Yeah, my first one is in the opening bout. This was added weird. It popped up, I think, on Tuesday on Topology. Kai Kamaka III returning to the UFC to take on what is Hope's first name, Dakota Hope, 11-1 prospect. I like this one under two and a half. I was really surprised at this price. It's plus 235.”
Kai Kamaka III defeated Dakota Hope by split decision after a full 3-round fight, so total rounds (3.0) exceeded the 2.5 line and the Under lost. (Kamaka def. Hope, split decision, went full 3 rounds)
“and then in terms of your actual bet for this fight you're going with the same game parlay Adesanya and the fight to start round three is minus 110 again I said fight to start round four is minus 160 so considering we both like Izzy late combining him and getting minus 110 for the fight to start round three I think is a good approach uh where's your price target on that bet where are you thinking about entering live and any other angles you got for this one yeah the current DraftKings SGP price on that is minus 110 I was kind of just clicking over turned on the dynamic odds with Izzy and was trying to get it roughly even money and that's about as close as you can get”
Joe Pyfer defeated Israel Adesanya by TKO at 4:18 of Round 2 — Adesanya lost the fight and the bout never started Round 3, so both SGP legs lost. (Pyfer def. Adesanya, TKO R2 4:18)
“So I took Barber minus 170 a little bit earlier in the week.”
Alexa Grasso defeated Maycee (Macey) Barber by KO (left hand) at 2:42 of Round 1. (Grasso def. Barber, KO R1 2:42)
“It's not that I think he's going to get a finish. I just think he can survive this against Lerryan Douglas. I thought Douglas was great. I rated him highly coming into the Convender Series. He knocked out a guy who I really didn't think much of in Cam Teague in like 30 seconds, which doesn't tell us much. He is not some massive, I'm going to finish you in the first round mauler the way that that fight implied, which I think is why we're getting the price, not so much on the money line here on Douglas but in terms of the markets all expecting a finish and then you extrapolate out from there well if a Rosa can make it you know tough UFC veteran had like I think 17 fights in the UFC or something crazy like that does a pretty good job hanging in there has fought a much higher level of competition if he can make it the whole way all we need to do is convince I believe on the plus seven and a half one judge that you won one round to cover that and we're getting plus money on all of that so like that angle of it”
Lerryan Douglas knocked out Julian Erosa via strikes at 3:33 of Round 1 (a highlight-reel finish); Erosa was finished well outside covering the +7.5 significant-strikes spread. (Douglas def. Erosa, KO/strikes R1 3:33)
“Thank you for asking that question. Terrence McKinney in the under half round SGP at plus 340”
Terrance McKinney defeated Kyle Nelson by TKO at 0:24 of Round 1 — well under half of Round 1 (2:30). (McKinney def. Nelson, TKO R1 0:24)
“I like Fortune.”
Tyrell Fortune defeated Marcin Tybura by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28). (Fortune def. Tybura, UD)
“It is I am doing my climb for the week is Ignacio Baja Mondes Minus 300 a little bit riskier for those who don follow Jed Meshew creation It is trying to string together like 25 minus 500 wins in a row where you roll over the bankroll every time”
Tofiq Musayev defeated Ignacio Bahamondes by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) at UFC Fight Night Seattle on Mar 28, 2026; Bahamondes ML lost. (Musayev def. Bahamondes, unanimous decision)
“interesting on the price. I got plus 215 Sunday night on Murphy. Looked like I immediately got some CLV and then it bounced right back to where it was. I think I'd be comfortable with Murphy”
Movsar Evloev beat Lerone Murphy by majority decision at UFC Fight Night London (Mar 21); Murphy ML lost. (Scorecards 48-46, 48-46, 47-47 for Evloev)
“frustrated and swinging bigger and bigger. I think that's when Riley's going to do the most damage, but I'm doing half a unit on Riley inside the distance in general. And then 0.1 on his round two and round three props that way. If he gets to finish at all, I'm coming out well ahead. But if it's two or three, much bigger.”
Luke Riley won by unanimous decision over Michael Aswell, not inside the distance.
“frustrated and swinging bigger and bigger. I think that's when Riley's going to do the most damage, but I'm doing half a unit on Riley inside the distance in general. And then 0.1 on his round two and round three props that way. If he gets to finish at all, I'm coming out well ahead. But if it's two or three, much bigger.”
Riley won by decision with no finish, so neither the round-2 nor round-3 finish prop hit.
“but you like Baranowski to land a takedown in this matchup at plus 200. So give me your thoughts. Yeah, this one is just a pure, I think, the market slash sportsbooks don't realize. Baranowski has a grappling background. He was like Polish ADCC. I want to say Polish champ, but maybe just like Polish and level competitor. I don't know. But he got in two wars. On the Contender Series, he fought Muhammad Ali, who's like a Muhammad Ali, no relation as i said last time who's a elite level jujitsu player so he obviously wasn't going to take him down he knocked him out in 20 seconds and then his ufc debut proper was against evo aslan and they both just started swinging and dropping each other right away i think if he's allowed to fight for more than 90 seconds he might shoot for a takedown because that's his background and austin lane goes for takedowns himself but he can't actually grapple he's just a better athlete than 80 of heavyweights but now he's no longer a heavyweight and will he have that strength or will he have that speed advantage that he did against big fat sloppy dudes probably not he also got taken down and submitted by vitor patrino in his last fight so it's a pretty clear path to victory for um baroniski who probably shouldn't just keep getting in extreme rock and sock and robot wars over and over for like both his career longevity and his like actual longevity and personal well-being so you got a straightforward path to taking down austin lane just by being the better technician i think he takes it and at plus 200 if he does use a grappling heavy game plan here we never get those lines again because the word will be out he actually is more of a grappler than a brawler chanel dyers minus 500 against ravina olivera is a woman woman strawweight bout I do show value on this fight to go to a decision at minus 330”
Baraniewski finished Austen Lane by standing TKO (overhand right) in 28 seconds with no takedown landed.
“whole time I got him at I want to say minus 120 it's moves around kind of jump up and down a little bit I think anything inside of minus 140 I'd be on Jones and at that point if it crossed over i would switch to your bet of fight goes to the distance i think that probably favors jones a”
Mason Jones defeated Axel Sola by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28). (Jones def. Sola, UD)
“uh yeah i'm gonna ignore most of your questions and respond with a question of your to you um do you know losane kata's nickname black panther and curtis campbell is pink panther panther parlay baby we got to do the panther parlay you just said you might parlay or pair him with something else the panther parlay is right there i was already on curtis campbell you like losane kata fire it up they're in oh no they're not back-to-back fights mason jones and axel sola are unfortunately interrupting the Panthers But yeah you can not take that right I mean it right there for the taking We like them both Both solid favorites Both have had a ton of line movement their way we riding with the markets panther parlay that all i have to say about that they're both both basically the same price as well at about minus 230 you pair those together you get to plus 106 if you like the panther parlay this week and i as i said i do like”
Both parlay legs lost: Danny Silva TKO'd Kurtis (Curtis) Campbell at 0:31 of Round 2, and Nathaniel Wood beat Losene Keita ("Lo Sanketa") by split decision. (Both legs lost)
“So I like just kind of the fight IQ and the game plan of Robertson [16:42] enough that I'm willing to lay the almost two to one.”
Independent verification agrees: Gillian Robertson (listed as 'Jillian') beat Amanda Lemos by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 114; Robertson ML won.
“i said i'll take bruno silva plus 170”
Independent verification agrees: Charles Johnson beat Bruno Silva by split decision at UFC Vegas 114; Silva ML lost.
“leave a little bit of you know extra bankroll on the table to bet bruno silva finish”
Independent verification agrees: Bruno Silva lost a split decision to Charles Johnson at UFC Vegas 114 with no finish, so 'Silva to finish' lost.
“You're taking fight doesn't start round three. [29:53] I'm taking Rahiki inside the distance at plus money. [29:56] Your doesn't start round three is minus 125.”
Independent verification agrees: Rahiki vs Hardwick ended via corner stoppage after round 2, so round 3 never began.
“but regardless of that we're both on Pierre this weekend I like her I make her like minus 240 she's again minus 160 so what did you see in this fight what did you see in the first fight and I know you're in agreement that she has probably improved more of the two relative to the first fight yeah this I got on this one early this week I got minus 140 it's in my luck ratings the big thing is the two losses that Pierre has since they met was a submission to”
Independent verification agrees: Piera Rodriguez beat Sam Hughes by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 114; Rodriguez ML won.
“But Kyle, by decision, my favorite way to bet this fight, Billy taking the dog shot on RDR at plus 220. Are you going to look for any live on Kyle to come back after round one, Billy? Yeah, if we get a big price, that's one of those.”
Independent verification agrees: Caio Borralho (announced as 'Kaio') beat Reinier de Ridder by unanimous decision at UFC 326; de Ridder's underdog ML lost.
“I'd bet Fajeda with any plus in front of his number.”
Independent verification agrees: Same mismatched-event bout as episode-6: actual fight was Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira ('Fajeda' = Ferreira, underdog). Rodrigues won by first-round KO, so Ferreira ML lost.
“looking at is a small sprinkle. The round one point spread on DraftKings. Rose has to win the round unanimously, so minus 1.5 points is minus 145.”
Independent verification agrees: Raul Rosas Jr won Round 1 10-9 on all three cards (combined 30-27, a 3-point margin), covering the -1.5 round-1 point spread.
“round unanimously, so minus 1.5 points is minus 145. Round three point spread for Font, plus one and a half, which means as long as he gets it on one judge's card, he covered it, is plus 100.”
Independent verification agrees: Rosas swept Round 3 10-9 on all three cards (combined 27-30, a 3-point deficit for Font), so Font +1.5 did not cover.
“Montez at minus 188. I like Tercios on the money line. I like his point spread. I like his live bet after round one. Again, probably prefer the point spread and the live bet because Montez should likely get on top in round one. He's won four of his last five fights via front headlock submissions. essentially just looking to get fights to the ground and submit opponents. Tercios, pretty good at scrambling, just not the most physically strong fighter. My biggest question, Billy, here is why this fight is taking place, I believe, at 145. They're both moving up in weight. Was it a short notice booking? What happened here that caused this fight to end up moving up? Just because neither of these guys are 145ers, but Tercios does actually have the size advantage. He's two inches taller with a two-inch reach advantage. Montez is the stronger fighter, but Turchios does have the size. Do you know why this one is up at 145? I have no idea on this one. There's another one I'm going to talk about shortly that I have an answer to. So, yeah, that is strange. As far as I know, this has been on the card for – long enough time for them to both make it. But yeah, I got nothing. What are your, do you have any betting thoughts here? Yeah, I am betting Montez.”
Independent verification agrees: Alberto Montes submitted Ricky Turcios via d'arce choke in round 2 at UFC 326; Montes ML won.
“With all that said, Martinez in round one, the point spread that DraftKings is now offering, [14:01] love this line from our friends at DraftKings. [14:03] You can do it all the rounds, but it's moved to minus 165. [14:07] I got it at minus 150. [14:08] Still love that.”
Independent verification agrees: David Martinez won by unanimous decision over Marlon Vera, not in Round 1.
“But, yeah, I'm on Ailin Perez for all the reasons you said as well. [45:48] Love the submission prop.”
Independent verification agrees: Ailin Perez defeated Macy Chiasson by unanimous decision. This pick was originally misattributed to 'Irene Aldana' during extraction — the actual bout was Ailin Perez vs. Macy Chiasson.
“I actually kind of expect him to win the first round like if we had one of those to win first round bets and could get it at Strickland at a big price I would I would take Sean in that which leads me to the plus nine and a half because he wins that first round you only have to cover one round assuming you make it to the finish”
Independent verification agrees: Sean Strickland won the fight outright by TKO in round 3, so the +9.5 underdog spread on Strickland covers regardless of scoring method.
“Jeff Neal, over half a takedown is plus 250.”
Independent verification agrees: Geoff Neal was knocked out cold at 1:19 of Round 1 by Uros Medic with no takedowns recorded.
“It's a flyweight battle between Ode Osborne and Alibi Idiris. Now, the projection here, and I don't have enough information on Adiris. I haven't actually watched his tape. This is a fight that I haven't bet as of yet. I don't need to go back and get more information on it before I would fire. Projection likes me to bet the over and for Ode to potentially last all 15 minutes. But I know Billy likes the under and for somebody to finish this fight and for Adiris to be the guy who is likelier to get that done. So, Billy, what did you see in your breakdown of this matchup? And what did you think of Adiris in his loss in the ultimate fighter finale to Joseph Morales? Yeah, every time I read his name, I pronounce it in my head as Idris Elba. So he's just Stringer Bell from The Wire to me, even though he's like a much smaller man from Kazakhstan or wherever. So not a physical resemblance, but a name resemblance there that I'm rolling with. You can't stop me. I think the tough finale said more about Joseph Morales' grappling than it did anything about Stringer Bell. Because Morales is like, he was on like a college grappling team, which I didn't know exists or whatever. Trains at AKA with Cormier and those guys, like just really solid overall. and took him down and did that plan and looked really good doing it. Ode Osborne doesn't grapple. He's going to stand there and trade shots with you. And Adiris throws all kinds of crazy hard stuff, spinning kicks, things like that. One thing that happens when you spin is you really raise the odds of somebody getting knocked out. It might be you, but you're going to raise the odds of a knockout happening in general anytime you get that wild and loose. So I really like the ends inside the distance. I think one of them finds a punch that puts the other one down. I think it's likely to be Adiris just because I doubt Osborne's durability at this point. He taking some bad ones and getting up there a little bit So his inside the distance is plus 220 Fight to end inside the distance is minus 136 Obviously I be heavier on the fight to end inside the distance So I make”
Independent verification agrees: Alibi Idiris beat Ode Osbourne by unanimous decision, so the fight went the distance.
“and that is Michelle Pajeta to land as many as one takedown at plus 150.”
Independent verification agrees: Michel Pereira landed at least one takedown (first in Round 2) en route to a split-decision win over Reese.
“point, but I think it was one of the first bets you entered in the app this week and you might have gotten a much better price. Did you get a better price than 130 on this as well? It was a worse price. He actually opened it like minus 150. I've been throwing half of a unit on it, you know, about every 10 cents since that happened. Yeah, you nailed it. The first line of my luck ratings was this is an extremely unique case from a luck standpoint because it's not really luck. It's just a weird situation out there. Only thing I'll add to your analysis, which is, again, you could have done this one without me and got most of the points. normally in a fight like that with delia it was three months ago and he legitimately got knocked out after that you know the second knockout of that fight was more legitimate three months ago you go ah that's a little concerning Serghei Spivac has like i don't know 75 ufc fights zero knockdowns in that time so it almost against almost any other heavyweight i would go yeah he's undervalued because of the loss but you got to watch out for this not this one so yeah it's all it's wheels up I'm flying off to anti-Delia land on this one.”
Independent verification agrees: Serghei Spivac defeated Ante Delija by unanimous decision at UFC Houston; Delija's moneyline lost.
“could get overwhelmed in the opening round. But I like Leal pre-fight at minus 120 all the way up to minus 135. And I like him live, especially after round one. I think that may be the best price point and the best entry point on layoff because chidi should be dangerous early projections like the over or the ghost of decision here but this should be a very violent fight i'd be pretty surprised if it didn finish it just a huge number on it to go all 15 minutes Billy I would imagine you expect a finish here as well How do you view lay all around minus 120 in terms of value? Yeah, I love that. That's another one I've added to my bet slip while you were talking because I was close to that on my own.”
Independent verification agrees: Carlos Leal defeated Chidi Njokuani by unanimous decision at UFC Houston; moneyline won.
“and then we have your final one is a ufc bet and uh i'm not even gonna try more takedowns and almeida kunaev i don't even know how to pronounce that uh yeah if you're close then sam darnold passing touchdowns plus 110 for 800 of your thousand uh i know you know your stuff in ufc i do not so do you want to uh spell this one out yeah i won't get too deep into it uh sean zarillo and i both gave out he gave out this version of the prop with um drake may rather than sam darnold at minus 115 for the sake of the contest i wanted the plus money my hope here is if i cash this and everybody else's crazy long shots miss that i can sneak by with a win just off this one bet”
Independent verification agrees: Jailton Almeida landed zero takedowns vs Kuniev (all attempts stuffed) while Sam Darnold threw 1 passing TD, so Almeida did not have more.
“judges' scorecards, which is why I'm going to Aljamain Sterling minus five and a half. This one's only minus 110.”
Aljamain Sterling defeated Brian Ortega by unanimous decision, 50-45 on all three cards, covering -5.5 (UFC). (Sterling won unanimous decision, 50-45 x3)
“What's your price target that you like Borjahts down to? So I bet him at, I believe, 138 earlier in the week.”
Sumudaerji defeated Kevin Borjas by unanimous decision, so Borjas moneyline lost (UFC). (Sumudaerji won unanimous decision)
“And then Billy and I both like Pejera as the likelier finisher of the two. I make his KO line about even money. You can get plus 165. Billy, you're just taking him inside the distance. What was that number? I believe plus 110. Where do you like that down to? It was plus 110, but now seeing that the ITD is minus 120, I think that's probably the sharper pick is just to take.”
Kyle Daukaus stopped Michel Pereira by KO/TKO at 0:43 of round 1, so Pereira did not win inside the distance (UFC). (Daukaus KO/TKO, round 1, 0:43)
“The first is Dom Marfan. He's from Australia. He's going against Jaehyun Park from South Korea. What did you bet Fan at, and what do you like it down to? Dom Marfan, best nickname on the weekend is Street Buddha. I have no idea how you get that nickname or what it means, but he's Street Buddha, which I love. I got him at plus 114, slight plus money.”
Dom Mar Fan defeated JaeHyun Park by unanimous decision, so his moneyline won (UFC). (Dom Mar Fan won unanimous decision, 30-27 x3)
“So Aaron Tao, somewhere between minus 170 and minus 180.”
Aaron Tau defeated Yin Shuai by unanimous decision, so the Aaron Tao moneyline won (UFC). (Aaron Tau won unanimous decision)
“belongs to Kavanaugh though. And since I like Kavanaugh at minus 200, you like the fight to end inside the distance at around plus 200, you said?”
Charles Johnson stopped Lonnie Kavanaugh by KO/TKO in round 2, so Kavanaugh moneyline lost (UFC). (Johnson KO/TKO, round 2, 4:35)
“i like kavanaugh to get the finish at plus 400 but he has 61 percent um striking defense”
Charles Johnson stopped Lonnie Kavanaugh by KO/TKO in round 2, so Kavanaugh could not win by finish (UFC). (Johnson KO/TKO, round 2, 4:35)
“Yeah, I'll start with my bet. It's the Hamzat Shemaev in any of the first three rounds. That's even money at FanDuel.”
Khamzat Chimaev won a five-round unanimous decision over Dricus Du Plessis, not in the first three rounds (UFC). (Chimaev unanimous decision, round 5)
“I think probably the sharpest way here is to come in with that plus three and a half on Lerone [14:01] Murphy. That's minus 165.”
Lerone Murphy stopped Aaron Pico by KO/TKO in round 1, covering +3.5 (UFC). (Murphy KO/TKO, round 1, 3:21)
“Bill, you're going GM three round three sub or no GM three by sub at plus 450. So you think this could take part at any point in the fight? Do you think, though, it's likelier to occur later around to around three? I'm not sure. That's always a tough question with submissions because the overall rate is higher early. But a guy like Olajichuk, who slows down, maybe it's late. I'm not that worried about it, though, because it's plus 450 when GM3's money line is less than half that.”
Michal Oleksiejczuk stopped Gerald Meerschaert by KO/TKO in round 1, so Meerschaert did not win by submission (UFC). (Oleksiejczuk KO/TKO, round 1, 3:03)
“And that's the bet that you like for this fight, Billy. It's Jared Cannonier to land one plus takedown over half a takedown at plus money. So what's your price target for that bet? And then how do you see this fight playing out? I like MVP by decision at around plus 120, but I certainly see the angle and the argument for Cannoneer on the money line this weekend. Yeah, my hot take is that MVP actually picks up his first UFC finish late in this one. Like he kind of just finally finds the button on Cannoneer He has been taking a lot of damage You know we all thought he was dead against G before he somehow came back Bad stoppage against Bajayo but took a ton of, or bad no stoppage against Kyle Bajayo, where he took a ton of damage. Like, it's starting to add up on Jared Cannonier. But as you pointed out, those fights where he's had success, he took down Gregory Rodriguez, despite being the way worse grappler in that matchup. Four takedowns on Marvin Vittori, a guy who's hard to take down. one takedown on Nasser D. And Imovov, also a guy you would not expect Kananir to initiate the grappling with. And MVP got taken down twice by Ian Gary, not really a grappler, and twice by Kevin Holland, who also grapples only accidentally. So it just feels like that's something that's going to be there. If you can get even money or better on one takedown, I would take that. Those move around all the time. As soon as I saw it, I posted it in the action Discord, the fights channel, where we hang out in there and talk bets. It's not sure if it's exactly the same by the time you guys are listening to this, but that was the price I got.”
UFCStats credits Jared Cannonier with two takedowns against Michael Page, clearing 0.5. (Cannonier 2 takedowns)
“So the way I'm actually betting it is not just Delizze straight up round one. There's a new bet I found. I don't know how long they've been doing this at DraftKings. You can bet on the round one money line in that it gets refunded if the fight doesn't end in round one. Delizze is plus 165 on that.”
Anthony Hernandez submitted Roman Dolidze in round 4; the stated round-1-only moneyline was refunded/void (UFC). (Hernandez submission, round 4, 2:45)
“my my first bet on this is ursig by submission at plus 185”
Steve Erceg defeated Ode' Osbourne by unanimous decision, not submission (UFC). (Erceg unanimous decision)
“[4:49] I like Tyra live probably too after round one or round two, [4:52] considering he the fighter on the full camp If Park has any early success if that price moves in I think you could probably live bet Tyra at a better number But I also like the fight to end inside the distance at about minus 175 [5:06] And the fight, or Tyra to win inside the distance at about even money, I projected that closer [5:11] to minus 110 or minus 115. [5:14] So fight inside the distance, Tyra to win inside the distance, and then Tyra's money [5:18] line live after round one or round two, depending upon Park's early success. [5:25] Billy, you're going with a prop for this fight. [5:27] Tyra to land over two and a half takedowns at minus 115. [5:31] I would imagine you're probably interested in a live angle as well, considering the short [5:36] notice aspect here for Park and the pre-fight price not being too ridiculous. [5:41] I kind of expected something north of minus 400 for Tyra here pre-fight. [5:45] So what are your thoughts on this matchup? [5:46] How do you break it down? [5:47] And then any other betting thoughts aside from your over two and a half takedowns?”
UFCStats credits Tatsuro Taira with four takedowns against HyunSung Park, clearing 2.5. (Taira 4 takedowns)
“What were the odds on the over four and a half through Rombetsky, Billy? [11:55] If you combine those as minus 105.”
Chris Duncan defeated Mateusz Rebecki by unanimous decision, so the Rebecki-moneyline parlay lost (UFC). (Duncan unanimous decision, 29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
“[48:05] He's 218 now.”
Rodolfo Vieira defeated Tresean Gore by unanimous decision, so Vieira moneyline won (UFC). (Vieira unanimous decision, 29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
“[48:09] Doing about a unit on that to win half a unit and then another half a unit on him inside the distance, even money.”
Rodolfo Vieira defeated Tresean Gore by unanimous decision, not inside the distance (UFC). (Vieira unanimous decision)
“so I love the money line for Demagra Medov it's actually gone against me a [39:03] little bit since I bet it earlier in the week I'd play that to like minus 120 or so inside the [39:08] distance, I think probably like 180, something like that.”
Bryce Mitchell defeated Said Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision, so Nurmagomedov moneyline lost (UFC). (Mitchell unanimous decision)
“[33:22] The more interesting angle I have here is I think D-Rod is actually more likely to win a decision if it goes there, right? [33:28] Like under the assumption that it would go to a decision. [33:31] And that's because his volume is much higher than Holland's. [33:33] Like you mentioned Holland playing around. [33:35] D-Rod outlands Holland by about three significant strikes per minute. [33:38] I don't think they'll be exceptionally significant, but he's just going to be doing so much more that a lot of times that can sway judges in your favor. [33:45] So what I'm doing here is I'm betting one unit on Holland to win inside the distance. [33:51] that's minus 150 and then half a unit on the decision only market for d-rod which gets refunded [33:57] if either man gets a finish kind of i feel like covering most of the likely outcomes here it works [34:02] out to a pretty slight profit especially if d-rod gets the decision because the inside the distance [34:07] doesn't refund but i'm kind of trying to cover the most likely outcomes on both sides here don't feel [34:13] super great about it because as you pointed out kevin holland is an enigma right he might just [34:18] messing around. He might get some takedowns and then just stand back up for no reason. [34:22] But I think there's an angle there where Rodriguez's volume helps him if it does go to a decision.”
Daniel Rodriguez defeated Kevin Holland by unanimous decision, so Holland did not win inside the distance (UFC). (Rodriguez unanimous decision)
“taking a little bit of a sprinkle at Derrick Lewis money line though it's a huge step up for Talos”
Derrick Lewis stopped Tallison Teixeira by KO/TKO at 0:35 of round 1, so Lewis moneyline won (UFC). (Lewis KO/TKO, round 1, 0:35)
“And that's Austin Lane to get a takedown at plus 250.”
Vitor Petrino submitted Austen Lane in round 1; UFCStats records no Lane takedown, so the prop lost (UFC). (Petrino submission, round 1, 4:16)
“I'm feeling better about my Jake Matthews bet seeing this weigh-in results than I was when I made it a couple hours ago.”
Jake Matthews submitted Chidi Njokuani at 1:09 of round 1, so Matthews moneyline won (UFC). (Matthews submission, round 1, 1:09)
“i'm actually on top of nate's money line i'm going to”
Morgan Charriere stopped Nate Landwehr by KO/TKO in round 3, so Landwehr moneyline lost (UFC). (Charriere KO/TKO, round 3, 0:27)
“[31:59] revitalized his career i would argue is when he started mixing in takedowns but if he shoots and [32:03] gets stuff he's in that perfect position for anacondas darces nate to spin and take the back [32:08] that's all the stuff he does really well so i'm actually on top of nate's money line i'm going to [32:12] take a flyer on land whereby submission i saw plus 1500 out there which is it's unlikely i'm [32:18] not saying it's going to happen but plus you know 15 to 1 odds and how can you not root for nate [32:23] the train in Tennessee Look at those biceps all the greatness that we going to get out of him on the mic You got to do it right I don know any better way to put it other than we need this to happen against a French dude in Tennessee [32:37] Yeah, just to my point about the decision equity as well, obviously, French dude, [32:40] Tennessee against the local native crowd, obviously going to be land where a partisan, [32:45] but also, Charier has nine split or majority decisions in 15 career decisions, [32:51] and he's five and 10 on the scorecards.”
Morgan Charriere stopped Nate Landwehr by KO/TKO in round 3, so Landwehr did not win by submission (UFC). (Charriere KO/TKO, round 3, 0:27)
“[37:06] via submission in the first seven and a half minutes [37:08] than I am about Tafa knocking him out. [37:11] But light heavyweight average, [37:12] fights go to decision about a 39% clip, which is plus 156 implied. I projected this one at plus 250. [37:21] They giving you four to one on this fight to GTD and then plus money plus 105 on the over one and a half So I play the over one and a half here and then also sprinkle the TD prop at plus 400 Billy you like this fight to go over as well I believe [37:36] because you also like Tokos to win at any point after the first round, [37:41] at any point after 7.5 minutes, I believe. [37:44] So how were you playing this one specifically? [37:46] Are you live betting Tokos after 1 and any other ways you're playing it? [37:51] Yeah, so what I specifically, and I did the full breakdown for this one, [37:54] which will be out Saturday morning, is Tokos in over four and a half minutes in an SGP. [38:00] That gets you to plus 255. [38:02] I think you could play with that up or down kind of to any point, and it would still be”
Tuco Tokkos submitted Junior Tafa at 4:25 of round 2, winning and exceeding 4.5 minutes, so both parlay legs won (UFC). (Tokkos submission, round 2, 4:25)
“So I have 0.6 units or to win half a unit on Steve Garcia money line, 0.4 units on knockout.”
Steve Garcia defeated Calvin Kattar by unanimous decision, so Garcia moneyline won (UFC). (Garcia unanimous decision)
“[54:42] not going to be able to find that point where he can out touch where he can touch you but you can't [54:46] touch him and that's where Calvin Cater does his best work we saw Holloway another longer guy set [54:51] the record for most significant strikes in a UFC fight against Calvin Cater Great that he survived that but you can only survive so many of those before those start to add up The other technical or stylistic thing I saw is Cater doesn fight [55:05] great moving backwards. And when he has to fight taller people, kind of by definition, he has to [55:10] back up a little bit more. I think if Garcia does his normal thing and kind of blitzes early, [55:14] that puts Cater on the back foot and puts Garcia in a good spot. If that happens and the line blows [55:20] up on Cater. I do want to live bet on him though. I think Garcia pretty much needs a finish here. [55:25] My original read was I'm going to come in with a Steve Garcia pre-fight bet and then try to live [55:30] bet Cater. Then I saw a certain book has a way off market line on Garcia knockout at plus 210. [55:37] Everybody else is plus 165. I'm not sure if we can name specific books on this particular podcast, [55:42] but jump in the Action Network Discord where I discussed that earlier here. [55:47] When you're getting a 50 cents different from every other book, it's kind of worth taking it. [55:51] So I have 0.6 units or to win half a unit on Steve Garcia money line, 0.4 units on knockout. [55:58] And if I can get, so giving me a total of one, if I can get cater north of plus 200 and put another half unit on it, that's what I'm going to try to do at any point.”
Steve Garcia defeated Calvin Kattar by unanimous decision, not KO (UFC). (Garcia unanimous decision)
“Yeah, I got the underdog Charles Oliveira, Chucky Olives at plus 350. I think kind of anything north of plus 300, I'm interested.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“in him. Ilia Topuria is a more than rightful favorite, but plus three and a half to one against one of the greatest or three and a half to one for one of the greatest lightweights of all time. just a little bit disrespectful and frankly i want to be rooting for Charles Oliveira here so you know quarter unit sprinkle on plus 350 would take it down to plus 300 the way i'm specifically betting this fight i like to pour yet same game parlayed with the unders under half around is 475 under one and a half plus 130 under two and a half minus 130 the under three and a half i saw today north of minus 200 it was minus 190 last night it was closer to minus 220 today so i'd I'll stick with the under half around one and a half rounds and two and a half rounds, uh, two and a half. You can get as low as minus one 28. That seems like a pretty good number to me. It's probably the one I'll bet the biggest of the three.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“My first one is on Payton Talbott as an underdog at around plus 150.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“The other bet, I like the under two and a half, also around the same price. I've got that at plus 154. If these guys are trading on the feet, as I expect, I think Talbot will land the cleaner shots and win more of the minutes, but Lima is extremely dangerous and can land big strikes at any time. So half a unit on both of those, you win if either guy gets a knockout early, you profit if Talbot wins by any method, or ideally Talbot gets a finish in the first two and a half rounds, you cash both bets.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Yeah, I jumped on Darius at plus 118 in my luck ratings, and this is why I published the early week article so I can quote these better prices when stuff moves like that.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I'm going lower than four and a half minutes fight time. Jacobe Smith very likely to pick up a first round finish here.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“And then along with that, Niko Price lower than 17.5 significant strikes.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“So for me, it is half a unit on Van pre-fight and then looking to get back live on Roy Val hopefully at plus money so we cash the ticket either way”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“So for all that reason, I took Hill when he was slightly plus money.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I think somebody finishes that one I'm going to take [17:03] Fazeev free fight on [17:05] the inside the distance and the KO lines [17:07] I prefer that to his money line”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“The Korean Tyson, Siong Hong Koko or whatever, if we try to say his nickname in the middle like we normally do, is a judo black belt who also competed internationally in Sambo. My thesis here is that he has the defensive grappling or at least the threat of submissions that Elliott can't just work him over from the top and kind of ride out that decision. which then means we'll have a striking match between two guys ko is kind of like and i don't love the stereotype here but like almost every korean fighter we see who just loves to brawl they all have fairly good power usually pretty decent chins but like just no interest in defense and Oban Elliott is fairly hittable he got knocked down by val woodburn of all people so basically that means if this one becomes a pure striking match we're kind of just flipping coins on the feet, one of those coins lands at almost plus 400. I got it at plus 400 earlier in the week, but the market has moved with me a little bit. So that is the thesis here There obviously the risk that Oban can still wrestle him because like you know wrestling it like a rock paper scissors thing with judo and jiu sometimes But if it stays standing, it's just two guys swinging real hard and we'll see who falls first. And I like getting plus 400 on one of those sides.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Yeah, fight we just talked about, an angle we just talked about between Oban, Elliott, and Siokyanco. I like Elliott to stay lower than 2.5 takedowns here.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I like Elliott to stay lower than 2.5 takedowns here. What I just talked about, not only Kanco grapple, but I think his submissions will be somewhat of a deterrent at the very least. And then I'm going to throw that in there with Siakon Koh. Higher than 32.5 significant strikes.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“And Sadiqov, as you pointed out, good power, you know, can 10-8 some people. He's got most of his wins by finish. He has won just one decision. So when you put those two things together, basically his money line and finish props should be much closer. If it does go to a decision, I actually do worry for Sadiqov, but the finish only prop is just ridiculous. Like you're not laying the massive juice on that, even though it might get refunded. So with all that said, that leads me to his inside the distance of minus 170.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“But any of the four fights that I just broke down, if you have betting thoughts on any of them, feel free to give them out. Yeah, I love the Segula-Alexiva goes to decision.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“that is Malcolm Wellmaker higher than 26.5 significant strikes.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Billy, the fight that you broke down a few weeks ago, Paul Craig against Rodolfo Bellato, you taking Craig by KO at 14 to 1 Just want to reiterate why you going with the KO prop as opposed to Craig by submission or any other iterations in this fight Yeah I going to be super annoyed when this one wins because it was plus 2 last time and now we're only getting plus 1,400, which is fine.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Yeah, but it's Phil Rowe versus Angelosa. I am taking the under two and a half at plus 215.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“With that, let's move on to our best bet, because we have a co-best bet this week on Jose Ochoa at minus 190 against the other Cody, Cody Durden, at plus 160.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“And given the cardio dynamic, I'd rather bet this fight GTD, especially at plus 175 compared to plus 230 on Harrison rather than pick one of the fighters to win by decision. So GTD were passed for me, probably a quarter unit. Play there, nothing too substantial, but have to bet into the odds relative to the divisional average of the goes to the decision prop. And, you know, Pena obviously concerns about the submission defense,”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“That gives me Kayla Harrison in the first three rounds. That as even money. It was plus 115 when I wrote the article about it, but still at even money.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I want Holland lower than 46.5 significant strikes.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“And then on the flip side, also Vicente Luque, lower than 38.5 significant strikes.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“kevin holland ko i was like the under one and a half at plus 148”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“So yeah, I can't believe these lines are this close. I took minus 135 on Spivak.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“one, Ju Sang-yu against Jaga Sergi. You've got an alternative nickname that you want to give to Ju Sang-yu, but you've also got a way that you want to bet on this weekend. Yeah, his official nickname is Zombie Jr. because he trains with the Korean Zombie, which is awesome, but I think his nickname should be The Bear, and we just put that in front of his name so then he can be Paul Craig Jr. Let you guys say that one out loud and figure out how we get there. I like you in rounds one or two in minus 120 at Jeka Saragih.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“But yeah, love Kelvin Gastelum at 3-1 underdog. Think he dominates the latter portion of this fight.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“her cardio, I would imagine, in the fourth and fifth rounds because you're betting Blanchfield by round four or five or decision at minus 135. Does that mean, Billy, that you're also waiting for a live entry potentially on her as well after the first couple of rounds? yeah maybe i mean i don't know that we'll necessarily get a better price if she gets to take down around one that might be all all we get so i'm not i'm not staking uh too much hope on that actually happening that way”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“my main bet is on Gamrot straight up.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“This fight is like minus 500 to go to the judges or something crazy. and one woman is plus 200 like i'm not worried about who's been more or less unlucky they both they both probably should be one and one based on like how they've actually performed i don't really care it a fight that like they not neither of them are very good neither of them have much finishing upside they both exclusively get in close fights and you getting better than two to one on one fighter Don overthink it I took Ardellian I not sure how to say it I don really care that much Early in the week in my luck rating she still there at about the same price Yeah don think too hard”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I'm targeting Andreas Gustafson higher than 0.5 finishes.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“and then with that I'm playing Trevin Giles lower than 27.5 significant strikes.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“And Jafel Filo, like, really should have won that fight. Like, I don't know how Makaev just powered through that knee bar. And then Filo was understandably gassed after that. It was deep into the third round. He sold out for a submission, didn't get it, and he took the fight on a few days' notice. So that was a huge stock up for him. And then two straight first-round submissions after that. And then he went and did a grappling match against Amir al-Bazi and beat him in a straight grappling match in December. So Nacimento's better ability is his grappling. I just think Filio is better at the thing that Nacimento is good at, if that makes sense. And we're getting him at plus money, and then you factor in the two-year layoff. I am on Filio straight up.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I went looking for this bet trying to find a good price on Bellotto by knockout and saw 2 on Craig You can not take that right Like I put one of a unit because that all FanDuel would let me”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I wouldn't bet him as a favorite, but at plus 114 or so, I got plus 114 earlier in the week, looked like Sadiq was going to be a favorite at some point, and now it's back to plus 114. So I'm more than happy with him, anything with a plus in front of it, basically given all those factors.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Hyun Sung Park, minus 175 at Caesars, last I looked. It's a bit of an offline. Everywhere else is a little bit higher. Carlos Hernandez is the ultimate luck fade.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“But the big plus money pre-fight on Valentina is gone. I like her 4-5 decision prop, which that's even coming down. It's plus 155 now.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“money on that one. I think we put big gloves on these guys. I'd probably maybe favor Charles Radke. I don't have a strong opinion on who's the better striker, but at worst, it's a coin flip, and we're flipping a coin at plus 140. I actually like the pre-fight. I don't know that that grappling plays out the way you described even though that how I thought it was going to until I dug a little deeper So I mostly with you Live stuff always fun if you can get it But this one I rather have the plus money pre”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“What I have in there right now is the over one and a half at plus 130.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“It's just the perfect setup for Sterling to do the same thing. He's got a big reach advantage. We're in the big cage. He can pick them apart with the jab, feint and counter-strike in round one, turn it up in rounds two or round three. So various ways to play this. You can, you know, do SGP to make this one bet, whatever. But I've got Sterling round two, plus 480,”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“It's just the perfect setup for Sterling to do the same thing. He's got a big reach advantage. We're in the big cage. He can pick them apart with the jab, feint and counter-strike in round one, turn it up in rounds two or round three. So various ways to play this. You can, you know, do SGP to make this one bet, whatever. But I've got Sterling round two, plus 480, round three at plus 700.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I'm giving out the best bet. Like I am super happy about this one. Um, Bekzat Almakhan, I'm pretty sure Bexat stands for baby Shavkat, uh, from the same region of the world. They look similar. They fight similar. So I know I'm doing the thing that we occasionally complain about and have referenced a couple times here but when a fighter comes in on short notice they win that moral victory we get really high on him for the next fight it doesn't always work but beckside came out and dropped umar nirmaga made off on short notice in his debut and now he only let me check like minus 145 against brad katona he going from umar nirmaga made off to brad Katona and we not making him a massive favorite I don understand I think he actually very good”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“So what I'm doing is a quarter unit on Figgy at plus 430 heading into the fight and then [6:19] looking for Sandhagen live.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“So what I'm looking to do here is come in. [8:39] I'm taking the money line on RDR. [8:41] The best I'm seeing right now is plus 275.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“The narrow underdog, Cam Smotherman, he's plus 114. He's taking on Sergei Saidi.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“But I am on the Ponzinibbio side. There's a couple of reasons here.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Gaston Bolanos by knockout at plus 300. [33:08] He's the one fighting Kwon Lee.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Miesha Tate I going to bet The line getting a little wide but if I can get it minus 140 minus 138 I good with that”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“in there right now is I have Gary in rounds four or five or by decision at plus 185 you know”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“rangy fighter. So I bet this last night, and they've since taken it down, but the over one and a half takedowns was plus 120 on draft kings for Ian Garry. I think that at anything better than minus 120 or so is a great pick. You can also use that on underdog or, you know, pick them sites like”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“[14:03] Part of it, and there's a couple of these that I got slightly better lines on earlier, [14:07] or much better lines on one. [14:08] I got Muniz at plus 470 earlier in the week, gave that out my luck rating. [14:12] I still like it at 400.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“[39:54] So you like Saman, but do you like him pre-fight or are you waiting live? [39:58] And then any other prop bets you like on this matchup? [40:00] yeah i'm going pre-fight on him and you you hit most of it but also it just feels like a very good [40:07] buy low opportunity on a guy we in mma collectively were pretty excited about and then he lost to”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“the bet i do really really like is a point to be deducted at 20 to 1 on”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“[27:07] neutralize to me. The other bet I have on this is Pitbull's finish only. He's just so much more [27:14] power and so much more ability to do that. The reason I like that and I'm splitting my exposure [27:20] is Yair is going to throw more and flashier which I think could potentially sway the judges where Pitbull is going to have the bigger moments He going to have the quality over the quantity here which gives him a better odds of a finish I think if this goes to a decision we going to be feeling pretty good about our Pitbull tickets and then [27:38] possibly let down because some judge thought the spinning hook kick that bounced off his arm, [27:44] you know, won a round for Yair Rodriguez, which it shouldn't, but you never know how those are [27:48] going to be judged. So that's why I'm splitting with the finish only at plus 110. I think I'd take”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“[29:17] volume and then any other betting angles for you on this fight I'm interested in Ige by decision [29:21] plus 390 but do you like the money line prop or they do you like his knockout prop instead of [29:26] decision I'm taking his money line I'm a little bit torn here I think if Ige is going to finish”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I bet Mitch Raposo, when he was plus 170 earlier in the week, I think I'd still take his plus 145.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“[4:47] elevation in Mexico City. Yeah, I think I agree with you if I hadn't already bet on the Moreno [4:53] side Not so much in that I would take Urcig money line but Moreno by decision makes a lot of sense or even the four or five decision prop moreno live stuff like that i trust his cardio a little bit more just because we”
Brandon Moreno defeated Steve Erceg by unanimous decision, so Moreno moneyline won (UFC). (Moreno unanimous decision, 49-46 x3)
“[10:51] But yeah, I'm on the Torres side, I think probably down to like minus 110 or so. [10:56] I got at a plus 102 a little bit earlier in the week and logged that in the app.”
Manuel Torres stopped Drew Dober by TKO at 1:45 of round 1, so Torres moneyline won (UFC). (Torres TKO, round 1, 1:45)
“[34:43] Billy, you gave out Christian Rodriguez earlier in this week in your luck rankings at minus [34:48] 140 He currently as high as minus 170 now at DraftKings So where your cutoff price on C against Melky Costa I interested in a live bet on C after round one and any fight that he in but especially in this fight against Melky Costa where I think he has cardio advantage [35:05] And then any other props or totals [35:07] you're considering on this fight as well? [35:09] Yeah, I kind of hate doing this [35:11] because my best bet is a bet I made four days ago”
Melquizael Costa defeated Christian Rodriguez by unanimous decision, so Rodriguez moneyline lost (UFC). (Costa unanimous decision, 29-28 x3)
“And if we're going to play that game for 15 minutes against a guy like Fernandez, who's won most of his fights by knockouts, something bad is probably going to happen at some point there. So it's plus 340. I think I'm doing a quarter unit on three underdogs that are all plus 300 or better.”
Kauê Fernandes defeated Guram Kutateladze by unanimous decision, so Fernandes moneyline won (UFC). (Fernandes unanimous decision, 30-27 x3)
“one of your best bets for this week, Morgan Sherrier on the money line at minus 142.”
Nathaniel Wood defeated Morgan Charriere by unanimous decision, so Charriere moneyline lost (UFC). (Wood unanimous decision)
“I took Marvin Vettori at minus 140 earlier in the week. That was in my luck ratings.”
Roman Dolidze defeated Marvin Vettori by unanimous decision, so Vettori moneyline lost (UFC). (Dolidze unanimous decision)
“and then the under two and a half is plus 170 Cachoeira”
Josiane Nunes stopped Priscila Cachoeira by KO/TKO at 2:46 of round 1, so under 2.5 rounds won (UFC). (Nunes KO/TKO, round 1, 2:46)
“So plus 150 on Spann. I think the market is just overreacting to the weight differential here,”
Waldo Cortes-Acosta defeated Ryan Spann by KO/TKO, so Spann moneyline lost (UFC). (Cortes-Acosta KO/TKO)
“Tell me why you're betting on Peloton season to continue this weekend. I mean, the biggest reason is I'm very tired of losing money betting against Alex Pajeda.”
Magomed Ankalaev defeated Alex Pereira by unanimous decision, so Pereira moneyline lost (UFC). (Ankalaev unanimous decision, 49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
“Justin Gaethje, I believe, has attempted four takedowns in his UFC career, which, you know, double-digit fights. three of those were against Rafael Fiziev in their first fight three of the four including the only one he landed if you go back and and watch that first fight with your sound like a little bit louder than you would normally watch a fight you can hear his corner screaming at him to wrestle when Raphael lands on him and clips him a little bit. And it happens like three or four different times. I believe he tried one takedown in each round. The only one he got was in the third round. But that was like, it arguably sealed him the fight. It was, you know, the more definitive moment. He got rocked a bunch of times. and he's coming off a bad knockout loss. And he was a D1 All-American. Like, we don't think of him as a wrestler, but obviously that's something he can do. He's talked about not wanting to take that kind of head trauma, you know, saying he's going to retire if he takes another one. So it's all pointing that way, and it's like north of plus 200. I think it moved to plus 215. I got it at plus 200. Kind of anything over like 160, 170, I think is a good line on that. It's just if there's ever a situation he's going to wrestle, this is absolutely it.”
UFCStats records Justin Gaethje with zero takedowns against Rafael Fiziev, so the takedown prop lost. (Gaethje 0 takedowns)
“i'm on bruno fajeda round one or two at plus 220”
Brunno Ferreira submitted Armen Petrosyan at 4:27 of round 2, so he won in the first two rounds (UFC). (Ferreira submission, round 2, 4:27)
“and that's King Green to get a takedown at plus 275.”
Mauricio Ruffy stopped Bobby Green by KO at 2:07 of round 1; UFCStats records no Green takedown, so the prop lost. (Ruffy KO, round 1, 2:07)
“shock me if we had to wait like three rounds with almabaya up to one i don't know what his cardio is like i just know it's really hard to wrestle for 25 minutes and especially at flyweight you don't get a takedown and then just get to hang out there the way you do at heavier weight classes, Cop is going to get back up. He's going to make you do it again and again and again. You could probably do that for some period of time. I just don't know that that period is 25 full minutes. So I'm going to buy a plus 180.”
Manel Kape stopped Asu Almabayev by TKO at 2:16 of round 3, so Almabayev moneyline lost (UFC). (Kape TKO, round 3, 2:16)
“So, yeah, Hyder Amil, plus 170.”
Hyder Amil defeated William Gomis by split decision, so Amil moneyline won (UFC). (Amil split decision, 29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
“And that all comes at plus 215.”
UFCStats credits Hyder Amil with one takedown against William Gomis, clearing 0.5. (Amil 1 takedown)
“Sam Patterson got a takedown in two of his three UFC fights, and he's fighting left-handed guy Danny Barlow, who just plants his feet and throws crazy. If there's ever someone to take down, that's it. That's the person that you shoot a on because he swings really hard. He's really aggressive and he just plants his feet and makes himself easier to take down. I'm really surprised we're getting plus 225 on that one. And Patterson”
UFCStats records Sam Patterson with zero takedowns against Danny Barlow, so over 0.5 lost. (Patterson 0 takedowns)
“So because of that, I'm taking Andrea Lee at plus 180 to finally convince the judges to give her one of these fights.”
JJ Aldrich defeated Andrea Lee by unanimous decision, so Lee moneyline lost (UFC). (Aldrich unanimous decision, 30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
“And then on the other side of that, Luana Carolina, who is fighting Montana De La Rosa, somewhere in the neighborhood of minus 130. I think she's a lot better than Montana De La Rosa.”
Luana Carolina versus Montana De La Rosa was cancelled, so Carolina moneyline was void (UFC). (Carolina-de La Rosa cancelled)
“I actually wish the co-main was five rounds and this one was three rounds. I'd feel much better about betting on both sides honestly But that not what we have I am worried about down the stretch I don think he gets hurt here. Cejudo, that is. He been extremely durable He got slick boxing He hard to touch But yeah you right about the damage optics This and there many of these on this card it would be a great points bet on the underdog, but the line is just so far apart. It's even money at DraftKings. And I'd rather just take a half unit on his money line at plus 225”
UFC official results show Song Yadong beat Henry Cejudo by technical decision, confirming the Cejudo moneyline loss.
“So Brendan Allen pre-fight, you could even go Brendan Allen round one and then try to come back live if you wanted to really stretch it out. Took that at plus 270. After the first round,”
UFC official results show Anthony Hernandez beat Brendan Allen by unanimous decision, confirming the Allen moneyline loss.
“I'm going to start and throw to you, Billy, first on one that was in your luck rankings earlier this week, Rafael Cercaria at plus 265 is what you got on Monday. I took plus 230 last night. What's your price target on Cercaria and why are you betting this matchup? Yeah, I think I'd take it down to about plus 200. It's a tricky one. we don't know a ton about Sir Caria. He got starched by Yibo Aslan in his debut. It was a weird situation, though. He was supposed to fight on the Contender Series. They had, at different points, three different opponents for him on the Contender Series before he got called up. So, like, I'm going to give him a pass on that just because... He was preparing for all kinds of different people. Who knows? Part of that, 10-0, I think nine finishes, most of them in the first round. And Bukowskis, who he's fighting, is a guy who can kind of get overwhelmed by big pressure athletes. Jimmy Crute knocked him out in the first round. Kilo Rountree knocked him out in the second round. Petrino got him in the second round. In an extended fight, I think Bukowskis might be the more skilled fighter. From what I've seen from Sir Correa, though, he's just going to swarm early, do some damage. I think if I was betting it now, that's why I had a hard time with your question, I might take inside the distance or parlayed with under two rounds or under one and a half, some version of that, had I not got the better line.”
UFC official results show Modestas Bukauskas stopped Rafael Cerqueira in round one, confirming the Cerqueira moneyline loss.
“Ricky Simone, plus three and a half points at minus 140 in a three round fight. Just need him to win one round on each scorecard. Tell me why you like him. Yeah, I was really hoping we'd get a better price on this because his money line is as high as plus 210 at ESPN. Even so, this one's really hard to pass up. Very good grappler. You know, just attempts a ton of takedowns. Javid Basharat usually will grapple with you. Like, even if he's not initiating that, he'll usually jump into it. And if you look at Ricky Simone's last three fights, he got knocked out in the fifth round by Song Yudong, but had won some rounds before that. And at least one judge gave him a round in both of his last two losses against people who are probably tougher to grapple than Javid Basharat. Bajrad doesn't finish anyone. Just kind of out there, point fighting, mixing in some takedowns. The odds of him stealing a round here in a fight that's very likely to go to a decision is pretty high. So what I did, I put 0.7 units to win half a unit on Ricky Simone, minus 140 on the point spread, and then 0.3 units on his money line.”
UFC official results show Ricky Simon stopped Javid Basharat in round one, confirming Simon +3.5 won.
“Yeah, less juice. You can play with the SGPs on DraftKings, too, and kind of tweak that up or down. I think you can get the minus 105 that I have in our sheet and still get the first 30 seconds of round three if you do it on DraftKings, if that matters to you. Like, it probably should, right? They'll be fresher at the start of the round. I just don't think these guys have the cardio to make it past the second round. I'm splitting my bet, so I've got half of a unit on Petroski, half, or to win half on this one, and they're going to engage each other with the grappling to an extent.”
UFC official results show Andre Petroski beat Rodolfo Vieira by unanimous decision after three rounds, so the before-11:00 bet lost.
“Probably comparable in terms of like edge and pricing as Billy's bet, which is Shabazian to win in rounds one or two at plus 115. So go ahead, Billy. Yeah, I mean, that's how he's won all but one of his fights in his career, is in the first two rounds.”
UFC official results show Edmen Shahbazyan stopped Dylan Budka in round one, confirming the win.
“We are in alignment on one prop in particular. That's Cody Steele by submission at plus 380. Billy, I want to let you talk about this fight a little bit more in depth because you also like Steele on the money line as well.”
UFC official results show Rongzhu beat Kody Steele by unanimous decision, not by submission.
“I would take Imovov. I like the decision angle. The only thing that worries me is, as you pointed out, Adesanya has been rocked lately. We don't know how durable he is at this point in his career. He said he was going to take a few years off, didn't really do that, and has been pretty busy since coming back. So that worries me a little bit too. I like the bet though. Like I'm not trying to poo-poo it too much. I just think the plus 140 or so is enough for me to get on that and let it ride.”
UFC official results show Nassourdine Imavov knocked out Israel Adesanya in round two, confirming the moneyline win.
“cheating the favorite underdog a little bit because he's plus 105. I can't not bet Bogdan grad here. It's been really weird line movement with grad opening as a very heavy favorite, and then eventually flipping to be an underdog.”
UFC official results show Bogdan Grad stopped Lucas Alexander in round two, confirming the moneyline win.
“I took Vinicius Oliveira against Said Nurmagomedov at plus 164 earlier in the week.”
UFC official results show Vinicius Oliveira beat Said Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision, confirming the moneyline win.
“I got plus 330 on Sarukian earlier in the week. I only did a quarter unit, and I'll explain why in a second, but if we see plus 300, I'd fist pump in another three quarters of unit.”
Independently confirmed: Tsarukyan withdrew from UFC 311 with a back injury the day before the event; Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan never happened (Makhachev instead submitted late replacement Renato Moicano), so this moneyline never settled. (Tsarukyan pulled (injury); Makhachev def. Moicano by submission, Rd 1)
“So I like Umar at plus 300 inside the distance.”
Independently confirmed: Merab Dvalishvili beat Umar Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision (fight went the distance). (UFC 311: Merab def. Umar UD)
“Carpenter, a very dangerous fighter, undefeated in his career, taking him at plus 265. Billy, you're joining me on that one, right? Yeah, 100%.”
Independently confirmed: Tagir Ulanbekov defeated Clayton Carpenter by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC 311, handing Carpenter the first loss of his career. (Ulanbekov def. Carpenter, unanimous decision)
“So I would play Darius' anything plus money. I'm not trying to get cute here. You could take a finish. I get the logic, but I'd rather just bet his money line and let it ride.”
Independently confirmed: Dariush vs. Moicano was scrapped after Moicano was bumped up to a short-notice fight with Makhachev when Tsarukyan withdrew; Dariush did not compete at UFC 311, so this moneyline never settled. (Fight canceled; Dariush did not fight at UFC 311)
“you got Jamahal Hill in your luck ratings piece earlier this week at minus 112.”
Independently confirmed: Jiri Prochazka defeated Jamahal Hill by TKO in Round 3 at UFC 311; Hill's moneyline lost. (Prochazka def. Hill by TKO, Rd 3, 3:01)
“i like bernardo sopaj inside the distance at two to one”
Independently confirmed: Bernardo Sopaj beat Ricky Turcios by unanimous decision (went the distance). (UFC 311: Sopaj def. Turcios UD)
“And then the other one I'm on is Rinya Nakamura to pick up a finish at plus 180.”
Independently confirmed: Rinya Nakamura lost to Muin Gafurov by unanimous decision; no finish for Nakamura. (UFC 311: Gafurov def. Nakamura UD)
“know this is a little bit more natural for him and then also Mike Tyson like you know my head has been saying Jake Paul probably gonna win this or should win this and with Mike Tyson it like you kind of just want to see him kick his ass if I be totally honest um but to me like one bet that I actually liked was Jake Paul to get knocked down and win which is still plus 450 it was a little bit better other than that earlier this week and you and I were talking about this the other day it's like Mike Tyson has still now currently more power than Jake Paul's ever seen because Jake Paul's been fighting former UFC welterweights for like a good portion of his career and now he's fighting like one of the best heavyweight boxers of all time who granted he looked washed 20 years ago but still like it's going to be 14 ounce gloves it's going to be two minute rounds and the stamina concerns that i have for mike tyson i mean i have stamina concerns for jake paul too because i've seen him get winded at the end of like round two or round three against mike perry you know and mike tyson is a different type of dude like he's he's older he's almost 60 so it's gonna have to be short bursts you know in terms of uh his explosiveness and there's a non-zero chance that he limps off at the end of round two because he just you know he's just injured because he's older and this fight goes to not even a technical decision it's just a no contest and then we might have to do this again but to me like jake paul to get knocked down and win uh i looked at you know parlaying uh at least one knockdown and putting that in a parlay maybe with some ufc stuff actually or some other boxing stuff this weekend two knockdowns was interesting to me. Maybe that's a little ambitious, but that has some plus money right now. So that's looking pretty good. I do think Jake Paul should win this. And I feel like if Mike Tyson does, it has to be by knockout. I don't think Mike Tyson's going to win on points. Yeah, so I definitely tailed your to be knocked down and win.”
The Paul-Tyson result confirms the stored grade.
“The other one I really like is Jake Paul by decision. at plus 320 I got it at.”
The Paul-Tyson result confirms Jake Paul won by decision.
“I like Jon Jones by knockout at plus 135 Stipe has always been hard to submit I don see Jon Jones submitting him”
UFC official results show Jon Jones stopped Stipe Miocic in round three, confirming the grade.
“One other fun bet I like on this though is a point to be deducted at plus 2000. I'm putting one-tenth of a unit on that.”
UFC official results confirm no point deduction was recorded in Jones-Miocic.
“First one, Eduarda Moura, she's plus 122, taking on Veronica Hardy.”
UFC official results confirm the Eduarda Moura moneyline grade.
“Other one I like, Jonathan Martinez at plus 124.”
UFC official results confirm the Jonathan Martinez moneyline grade.
“I took Basil Hafez early in the week at plus 180 line is now blown out all the way into plus 240”
UFC official results confirm the Basil Hafez moneyline grade.
“breakdown of this fight and that was one of my bets uh the other one i'm taking is the under two and a half which is also plus money at plus 124 both guys are cardio liabilities both guys can hit hard a little bit both guys have submissions in the tank i don't see this one going all the way one way or the other i don't feel confident who gets the stop so my logic here is if we get a jim miller win or a stoppage in the first two and a half rounds i'm going to come out ahead either”
UFC official results confirm Jim Miller-Damon Jackson ended before 2.5 rounds.
“also taking Chris Weidman or Eryk Anders to have a point deducted at plus 2000.”
UFC official results record Weidman-Anders as void, confirming the stored grade.
“Kaio on the way up. You know, I've said it when we talk about these point spreads that, you know, we like the plus three and a half because a fighter only has to win one round, where it's a lot harder to cover the plus five and a half because winning one round isn't enough. You're still down three points on each judge's scorecard. You can even get away with one judge three to two if you've got four to one on the other ones. and I finally thought about, well, if I don't like the plus 5.5 ever, that must mean I think the minus 5.5 is a solid way to play that, and it's minus 125, which is half of his money line. I think Kyle looks like the better fighter in pretty much all phases here. Kananier is just durable enough, and the stoppage in the last one was just questionable enough that I didn't want to bet on him inside the distance. That's only plus 150. It's really not that big of a gap, all things considered. It's about 15% implied. So because of that, I like the minus 5.5.”
Nevada's official cards total Borralho 146 to Cannonier 136, a ten-point aggregate margin that covers Borralho -5.5. (Borralho 146, Cannonier 136)
“striker versus striker billy you're with me on yontop and i know you've got another underdog as well yeah 100 with you on yontop i got him at plus 210 gave that one out my luck ratings”
UFCStats records Borshchev as the split-decision winner, so the Llontop moneyline loss agrees.
“So yeah, that's how I'm playing this one. I would not at all be surprised if Magny wins a split decision or a close decision, but feel a lot better. Plus three and a half is two to one odds.”
UFCStats records Morales as the first-round knockout winner, consistent with the Magny spread loss.
“my actual best bet is probably the reach here on top. [52:45] I put in here Mirshart in round three plus eighteen hundred.”
UFCStats records Meerschaert's submission in round two, so the round-three prop loss agrees.
“but if I have to which I kind of do I'm taking Adesanya on the money line”
UFCStats records Du Plessis as the submission winner, so the Adesanya moneyline loss agrees.
“So if Walker does grapple, I think plus money, the clearest side of that matchup. But curious, you know, if you're interested in either of those dogs, Billy, I don't know. I was against Walker in his UFC debut, so I'm trying to come back on him here at plus money after the adjustment. But Leach really, you know, three to one really stood out to me. Yeah, you sold me on Leach. I hadn't looked or thought about that fight at all, so I was glad to get someone's opinion on that. I'm definitely going to run out, hit that one.”
UFCStats records Prates as the knockout winner, so the Li Jingliang moneyline loss agrees.
“And then the underdog I like, or one of many, and I'll go quick on this because, Sean, you're going to touch on it later too. I like Casey O'Neill at plus 128. Another luck ratings pick that I got at a much higher price earlier in the week.”
UFCStats records O'Neill as the unanimous-decision winner, so the moneyline won as stored.
“Opening bout, Stewie Nickel inside the distance at plus 200 against Jesus Aguilar.”
UFCStats records Aguilar as the first-round submission winner, so the Nickel inside-distance prop lost as stored.
“Tai Tuivasa by knockout at plus 270.”
UFCStats records Rozenstruik as the split-decision winner, so the Tuivasa knockout prop lost as stored.
“Dan Hooker by knockout, plus 800, I think even plus 900 points.”
UFCStats records Hooker as the split-decision winner, so his knockout prop lost as stored.
“My best bet is also Dan Hooker plus three and a half with the exact same logic.”
UFCStats records Hooker as the split-decision winner, consistent with the stored plus-points spread win.
“So at plus 140, I like that on the Tibera side.”
UFCStats records Spivak as the submission winner, so the Tybura moneyline loss agrees.
“So I'm taking Chepe in round three or by decision at plus [15:34] 140.”
UFCStats records Mariscal as the decision winner, so the round-three-or-decision prop won as stored.
“i've got jonata denise at plus 175 for those that don't know his”
UFCStats records Diniz as the unanimous-decision winner, so the moneyline won as stored.
“You can get this one to end in knockout. [25:32] Either guy at minus 135,”
UFCStats records a decision in Barlow-Veretennikov, so the knockout-ending prop lost as stored.
“But Chelsea Chandler, plus 125.”
UFCStats records Santos as the decision winner, so the Chandler moneyline loss agrees.
“And then the other one which Sean will also get to later is Mihal Oloshek at plus 210 I basically just fading the Shara Bullet hype here”
UFCStats records Magomedov as the winner, so the Oleksiejczuk moneyline loss agrees.
“but I'm just taking the knockout at plus 140, covering all the rounds.”
UFCStats records Murzakanov's knockout, so the knockout prop won as stored.
“So I put 9 tenths of a unit on Lupe at plus 110 [33:47] to win roughly one unit”
UFCStats records Dern as the unanimous-decision winner, so the Godinez moneyline loss agrees.
“assertions, 14 to 1 on a knockout, I love that. So I put 9 tenths of a unit on Lupe at plus 110 to win roughly one unit and then, you know, sprinkled 0.1 on her knockout prop.”
UFCStats records Dern as the decision winner, so the Godinez knockout prop lost as stored.
“But Blades in the decision-only market at minus 140, I think he should be like minus 1,000 in the decision.”
UFCStats records Aspinall's first-round knockout, so the Blaydes decision prop lost as stored.
“just last night put in the round three slash decision bat on Nathaniel Wood.”
UFCStats records Wood as the decision winner, so the round-three-or-decision prop won as stored.
“love g rod here i've been [28:31] on him all week”
UFCStats records Rodrigues as the winner, so the moneyline won as stored.
“But I like Muhammad Mokaev at minus 155 [41:16] against Manel Kopp.”
UFCStats records Mokaev as the winner, so the moneyline won as stored.
“I am, and largely just because I think it does go to a decision, so I want the extra 25 cents of payout. [15:21] Sean makes a ton of sense. [15:22] I don't hate that. [15:23] I'm just getting a little greedy on the plus 136.”
UFC reports the Park-Tavares bout was cancelled, so the Tavares moneyline was void as stored.
“and you can bet minus 130 against Kurt Hollibaugh, [31:36] which I will take without any other information.”
UFCStats records Holobaugh as the decision winner, so the Kruschewsky moneyline loss agrees.
“And then I also betting under two and a half rounds at minus 120 Again it 78 years of combined age both coming out off knockout losses”
UFCStats records a three-round decision, so the under-rounds ticket lost as stored.
“But, yeah, I like the grappling upside here from Blackshear. it's going to be a sweaty two three minutes because montel jackson has big power but one stat i noticed when i was looking into this fight anytime jackson has been taken down more than once in a fight he's lost and blackshear is averaging about two and a half per 15 minutes and obviously you'd expect blackshear to go for more in this kind of matchup than he did against guys where he might have a striking edge so just a guy who's vulnerable against grapplers fighting what i would say still up and coming very high level grappler and we're getting plus money on the grappler side i would prefer this fight not to be at elevation to make those bets but it's still plus 124 so i'll still take it”
UFCStats records Jackson's first-round knockout, so the Blackshear moneyline loss agrees.
“Also part of it, I got Petrosky at plus money earlier in the week. That was in my luck ratings.”
UFCStats records Petroski as the decision winner, so the moneyline won as stored.
“So to get plus money on Smith against a middleweight, I feel like that's a fairly solid price. I don't think it's going to be the most exciting fight if Anthony Smith wins it. I think he needs it not to be. But also last point, due to all of the shuffling, Smith was on this card for at least a week or two longer than DeLizze, which isn't huge, but a little bit more preparation. He's fighting his natural weight class, should be much bigger and stronger than a guy coming up from 185. So if this fight were against a similarly skilled light heavyweight, I probably wouldn't make Smith a favorite, but against a middleweight, I'd take him as a slight favorite here. So plus 120 is a good line. I should just mention, because you talked about the durability concerns for Smith.”
UFC records Roman Dolidze defeating Anthony Smith by unanimous decision, confirming the Smith moneyline lost. (Dolidze unanimous decision)
“just in my own estimation so we were getting lee at plus money i like that i would still bet him at minus 105 don't love it as much as when it was plus money but that's that's how i'm playing it”
UFC's event results record ChangHo Lee defeating Xiao Long by split decision, confirming the stored won grade. (Lee split decision)
“what ultimately tipped me towards van and i'm playing his money line at plus 180”
UFC reports that the proposed Tagir Ulanbekov-Joshua Van bout was scrapped, confirming the stored void grade.
“The one I'm on, and this is mostly just going to be a shameless plug for my luck ratings is Julia Polastri. Bet her at plus 190 early in the week. She's all the way down to plus 155.”
UFC's event card records Josefine Knutsson defeating Julia Polastri, confirming the Polastri moneyline lost. (Knutsson unanimous decision)
“that I'll take the minus 120 on Imavov.”
UFC's official event result records Nassourdine Imavov defeating Jared Cannonier, confirming the stored won grade. (Imavov TKO R4 1:34)
“The other one I really, really like here is Jesse Butler. He's moved all the way up to plus 500. Jesse Butler is the guy who stepped in on like two days notice to get knocked out by Jim Miller a couple events ago. It was his UFC debut. He had three days notice. That was two weight classes up from where he's fighting now. Way smaller, fighting the guy with the most fights in UFC history. We don't know that he's bad. We just know that he wasn't prepared for that moment that he found himself in at the time. he's fighting brad katona who i continue to talk about on this show recent winner of the ultimate fighter twice actually two of the recent seasons i don't think those guys are very good because the more talented fighters come in through the contender series between his two runs in the ufc katona is officially three and three two of those three wins were in the championship bout of the show against another guy who only got in because the ultimate fighter so i don't really look at those as true UFC fights which would put him at one and three by my fuzzy math here And then Katona got his weird super short arms just trying to outpoint you thing that not gonna it doesn play well to the judges in general i don think especially these weird judges that we have no idea who they are how accurate they're gonna be butler's probably gonna be a little bit more aggressive gonna be the bigger guy at 135 versus seeing him as the smaller guy five to one is just crazy on him you know i would i would play him at like plus 250 if That was the line. So plus 500, this feels like a steal. Obviously only betting like half a unit on it because we're getting such a big return, but very excited about this one.”
UFC's official event result records Brad Katona defeating Jesse Butler by unanimous decision, confirming the Butler moneyline lost. (Katona unanimous decision)
“I like Zach Reese at plus 120 There is a lot of unknowns in this fight”
UFC's official event result records Zachary Reese stopping Julian Marquez in round one, confirming the stored won grade. (Reese TKO R1 0:20)
“Don't go putting multiple units on this or whatever. I took half a unit at plus 475 on Poirier. I could still get him around plus 450, somewhere in that region. I'd take it. Not a big”
UFC records Islam Makhachev defeating Dustin Poirier, confirming the Poirier moneyline lost. (Makhachev submission R5 2:42)
“Anyway, the one that I'm going with is Phil Rowe at plus 135.”
UFC records Jake Matthews defeating Phil Rowe by unanimous decision, confirming the Rowe moneyline lost. (Matthews unanimous decision)
“which is brahimae by submission at plus 190 very similar thoughts to”
UFC records Themba Gorimbo defeating Ramiz Brahimaj by unanimous decision, confirming Brahimaj by submission lost. (Gorimbo unanimous decision)
“but getting the plus money on Ruzaboyev is enough for me.”
UFC records Joaquin Buckley defeating Nursulton Ruziboev by unanimous decision, confirming the Ruziboev moneyline lost. (Buckley unanimous decision)
“I like Tabitha Ricci's money line at minus 140 here.”
UFC records Tabatha Ricci defeating Tecia Pennington by split decision, confirming the stored won grade. (Ricci split decision)
“and then i also like uh tabitha ritchie to finish this fight at plus 400”
UFC records Ricci winning by decision, confirming that she did not finish the fight. (Ricci split decision)
“matash rombecki at minus 140 matash rombecki inside the distance at minus 140 sean alluded”
UFC records Diego Ferreira stopping Mateusz Rebecki, confirming the Rebecki inside-distance pick lost. (Ferreira TKO R3 4:59)
“But the other non-Brazilian I'm on is Ernesto Carasetti fighting Dion Barbosa.”
UFC records Dione Barbosa defeating Ernesta Kareckaite by unanimous decision, confirming the Kareckaite moneyline lost. (Barbosa unanimous decision)
“I like Michel Pajeda in round one at plus 120.”
UFC records Michel Pereira submitting Ihor Potieria in round one, confirming the round-one pick won. (Pereira submission R1 0:54)
“Kyle's a very accomplished grappler in his own right. Judo brown belt won some national level judo championships as a kid. I don't see Craig getting the takedown here, but I could see Paul Craig doing his stupid horrible double leg that doesn't work flop to my back. Kyle hits him a little bit and then just locks up a submission in a club and sub and i could also see kaiho just kind of wanting to engage with craig in a straight up grappling match like he doesn't seem like the type who's going to shy away from that high level black belt himself that's minus 125 i would say that a knockout is slightly more likely than a submission i just don't think it's what the market is reflecting so i'm going to cover my bases with the minus 125”
UFC records Caio Borralho stopping Paul Craig in round two, confirming the inside-distance pick won. (Borralho KO R2 2:10)
“I think as it stands now I going to go with the Perez finish only market pretty much the same price which implies that both guys have roughly equal finishing equity here”
UFC records Alex Perez stopping Matheus Nicolau, confirming the inside-distance pick won. (Perez KO R2)
“So I taking Brendan Allen inside the distance at plus 130 Sean teed up a lot of it but that was the last time Brendan Allen lost was two and a half years ago against Chris Curtis”
UFC records Brendan Allen defeating Chris Curtis by split decision, confirming the inside-distance pick lost. (Allen split decision)
“is making to try to see if they've got something with Almeida, just because how cool would that be for history to repeat itself. And Pajeta now plays the role of Izzy Adesanya, fights a guy who they have some history with. So I think they're trying to build up to that maybe a little bit here, see if they've got that, giving them a little bit of an easier, stylistically better matchup to start with. But we're getting at a plus money, so I'm going to take that.”
UFC records Cesar Almeida stopping Dylan Budka in round two, confirming the stored won grade. (Almeida TKO R2 2:13)
“Yeah, you know, I'm also taking the money line here for a little bit of a sprinkle, [24:17] but that's Nora Cornolle. Her knockout odds are plus 1100, which I just do not understand against [24:22] Melissa Mullins or someplace listed as Melissa Dixon.”
UFC records Nora Cornolle stopping Melissa Mullins in round two, confirming the stored won grade. (Cornolle TKO R2 3:06)
“so i'm going to take a little bit of a sprinkle on emers in round one you can get as high as plus 600 i think he's going to knock land we're out”
UFC records Nate Landwehr stopping Jamall Emmers in round one, confirming the Emmers round-one pick lost. (Landwehr KO R1 4:43)
“So pretty much in lockstep with you might get a better live line. You know, if I hadn't taken the earlier line on McKee, I might wait. I got plus one 42.”
UFC records Chidi Njokuani defeating Rhys McKee by split decision, confirming the McKee moneyline lost. (Njokuani split decision)
“And Aslan 12-1, his only career loss was to the Pleasure Man. I think all knockouts, yeah, all knockouts, you know, big hitter, as you mentioned probably should be a little bit better as a well-rounded fighter you'd imagine now he can train full-time when they fought before he's probably working some other job you know just getting by on national athleticism so one you know it was even better price earlier in the week i got minus 115 again read the luck ratings everyone”
UFC records Ibo Aslan stopping Anton Turkalj in round three, confirming the stored won grade. (Aslan TKO R3 1:32)
“No, I'm definitely taking Payton Talbot here.”
UFC records Payton Talbott stopping Cameron Saaiman, confirming the stored won grade. (Talbott TKO R2)
“Bet Igor.”
UFC records Igor Severino disqualified against Andre Lima, confirming the Severino moneyline lost. (Severino DQ R2)
“So that's really what puts me over to his side here, as well as being seven and a half years younger than Ty Burra. So Tai Tuivasa minus 110.”
UFC records Marcin Tybura submitting Tai Tuivasa, confirming the Tuivasa moneyline lost. (Tybura submission R1 4:08)
“My favorite of those is Jaqueline Amorim. She's around plus 145.”
UFC records Jaqueline Amorim submitting Cory McKenna in round one, confirming the stored won grade. (Amorim submission R1 1:38)
“all of those things on Jafel Philo, I think he can get as good as minus 155 now.”
UFC records Jafel Filho submitting Ode' Osbourne in round one, confirming the stored won grade. (Filho submission R1 4:27)
“Small sprinkle on goes to decision at plus 750 The thought on that is if it goes over one and a half”
UFC records Rozenstruik stopping Gaziev rather than a decision, confirming the decision prop lost. (Rozenstruik TKO R4)
“So getting the kind of plus money we are on Rajabov, I think it's actually increased just a little bit throughout the week, too. It's moved up and down at different points. But, yeah, I really like that. The price we're seeing now, plus 160, don't really have a particular method of victory. I could see a knockout is, you know, kind of a short, stocky guy with some big power, but also likes takedown. So plus 160 is enough for me.”
UFC records Loik Radzhabov stopping Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady in round three, confirming the stored won grade. (Radzhabov KO R3 0:49)
“Billy, you're going with a fighter to win inside the distance is your best bet this week. [9:40] I am, yeah. [9:40] It's just this is more it's not even like a technical read. [9:44] It's just I can't believe the difference between his money line and his inside the distance. [9:47] and that's Eryk Anders who's coming up around like minus 500 in some spots now [9:51] not quite but getting there and then plus 130 plus 135 depending on where you look [9:56] inside the distance against Jamie Pickett”
UFC records Eryk Anders defeating Jamie Pickett by unanimous decision, confirming the inside-distance pick lost. (Anders unanimous decision)
“took Rosas at minus 260 earlier in the week with this plan already in place”
UFC's Mexico City event card does not list Rosas-Turcios as contested, confirming the stored void grade.
“So I'm going to be actively rooting against my own bet here. I'm wearing my Volkomania shirt, but I've got Topuria at slight plus money.”
UFCStats records Topuria's second-round knockout, so the moneyline won as stored.
“Best I saw, I mean, we saw better odds a little bit earlier in the week, but yeah, 205, 210, totally fine with it. Also like the knockout prop just because Cejudo's 37, has had one fight in the last four years, got taken down more times in that fight than the rest of his career combined. You know, I could certainly see like a ground and pound finish, especially deeper in this one if Cejudo just doesn't have it anymore. But my main bet is just laying the money line.”
UFCStats records Dvalishvili as the unanimous-decision winner, so the moneyline won as stored.
“I'll take the plus 330 or so inside the distance, about half a unit on Kapilov.”
UFCStats records Hernandez's submission, so the Kopylov inside-distance prop lost as stored.
“because I am taking Danny Barlow by knockout at plus 160. He's fighting Josh Quinlan.”
UFCStats records Barlow's knockout, so the knockout prop won as stored.
“I think I'm going over two and a half rounds at plus 125.”
UFCStats records Pyfer-Hermansson as a five-round decision, so the over-rounds ticket won as stored.
“I believe it's the first fight of the night, although they keep shuffling the order here. Daniel Marcos and Orichi Key Lang. Love the under two and a half here at plus money, plus 150.”
UFCStats records Marcos-Aoriqileng as a no contest, so the over-rounds ticket was void as stored.
“I just like Wells here. Not going to say it's a best bet, more of a final bet. I'm going to say for a little behind the scenes here, Zarello did not have his best bet in until late here. I would love to change my best bet to his. I think that's actually a great call. Brad Tavares, he's like a classic tough out. He doesn't look like he does anything all that well, but he's just super hard to look good against. But no, I do like Wells. He lost his first UFC fight last time. In a fight, he was dominating. Got choked unconscious in the third round. Always cardio issues. Extremely good grappler. Probably the best grappler in the division at this point, I'd say. And just like pure grappling. But man, does he gas out. And it doesn't look good when he does. To his credit, rather than tap out to the choke, he just went to sleep. So I always like people that are going to fight for my money. Tapping to a choke is... You kind of don't have to. if you instead of tapping you could have been doing this and fighting the choke like that minus 148 is where I got him I think minus 155 or so is the best you can find out anywhere in there”
UFCStats records Griffin as the decision winner, so the Wells moneyline loss agrees.
“I took Delidze by finish only, right around even money.”
UFCStats records Imavov as the decision winner, so the Dolidze finish-only prop lost as stored.
“hoody kickboxing, kind of got picked apart by Riddell. Moicano fought Brad Riddell. He finished him with a submission, but he hurt him on the feet before that. You know, three-minute sample size, we can't say for sure that he's the better striker, and we know MMA math doesn't work that way. But it was a pretty convincing data point for me that not only is he, we can all agree he's the better grappler, might even be the better striker. Don't feel confident that he ends up getting the submission because Dober you know got the good submission defense Wouldn be shocked if he pounded him out on the ground or landed a kick or something So that leaves me no choice I got to take the money line straight up Think he wins Don really know how Fine with laying the juice if he better in we think all areas other than power”
UFCStats records Moicano as the unanimous-decision winner, so the moneyline won as stored.
“Markel Mederos knockout plus 220.”
UFCStats records Mederos as the decision winner, so the knockout prop lost as stored.
“But, yeah, mine are, I'd say more in the realm of final bets. The one, and I'm going to even butcher this one, Ali Askab Kizriev, I believe, taking on Mackwood Muradoff. He's more of just a fade of Murdov. He's 1-2 in his last three fights. His win was against Brian Barbarina at middleweight. Barbarina had no business being a middleweight. I don't know what's going on there. Kendrick Rav is 14-0. Looks like a legit prospect. Just been very inactive. Contender Series fight in 2020. Took him three years to get back in there. Fought in 2022. Or two years to get back in there. Another two years before this one. don't know what's going on there but he has given us nothing to think he's not you know just a total marauder and gonna roll through people pretty fair price in the minus 140s depending on when and where you look i'm fine with that”
UFCStats records Khizriev-Muradov as a no contest, so the moneyline was void as stored.
“thomas peterson in the opener minus 165 another guy i think is a legit prospect taking on jamal pogues”
UFCStats records Pogues as the decision winner, so the Petersen moneyline loss agrees.
“That wouldn't totally shock me. But my favorite bet here is just the Gon money line. You know, I could see him finishing it early, knockouts, submission wouldn't shock me, or just out pointing him for 25 minutes against a guy growing increasingly desperate to get takedowns but not finding him so minus 178 is fine with Sean probably about to minus 190 or so is where I'd start to rethink it”
Official UFC result confirms Cyril Gane ML; the stored won outcome is correct.
“managed to get back into the promotion. I think this line should be about flipped with McKee as roughly a minus 140 favorite. So a plus 140 underdog, I like that.”
Official UFC result confirms Rhys McKee ML; the stored lost outcome is correct.
“I'm looking at Clayton Rodriguez, at books where you can bet a spread plus three and a half.”
Official UFC result confirms Kleydson Rodrigues +3.5 points (decision spread); the stored lost outcome is correct.
“That feels like an even one at even money. Don't know enough about Cornel that I'd be willing to lay too much juice on it, but at even money, I'm definitely taking that.”
Official UFC result confirms Nora Cornolle ML; the stored won outcome is correct.
“And that's scary against someone with the physicality of span, you know, massive power, really fast, strong, all the physical tools. I love your angle. And I'm actually going to sprinkle on that too but the money line at minus 130 I don't want to get cute could he catch him in a guillotine because Anthony Smith takes a bad shot of course knockout probably the most likely just because he blitzes him but I get your decision angle as well so my main bet will just be the money line but do love where you're going with that because he's tough enough to survive but”
Official UFC result confirms Ryan Spann ML; the stored lost outcome is correct.
“tell me why we both like Lukasz Breschke for Saturday night. So sometimes I'm betting on a fighter because I think they're good or think they bring something skillset wise. And other times I'm just betting against their opponent. And this is one of the latter ones. I think Waldo Cortez Acosta is kind of lucky to be in the position he's in record wise. He's, I want to say two and one in the UFC, but he beat Chase Sherman and Jared Vandera, both fairly low level, boring decisions. He's a former baseball player and like normally you say baseball isn't his base, but he actually kind of punches like he's pitching a baseball, which is interesting. And but there a reason we don see like anyone else doing that And then he was really exposed against Marcos Rogerio de Lima in the last one so it not so much that I that big on Lucas Bresky who I think is at best a low to mid-level UFC heavyweight but he fought some tougher guys he's 0-2 lost a split decision to Martin Budai unanimous decision to Carl Williams who took him down the whole time Cortez Acosta isn't going to grapple and this fight is fairly likely to go to decision, which is rare for heavyweight fights. And, you know, systemically, we always talk about this. If we think a decision is likely to happen and one guy's plus 200, that's the ticket I want in my hand when they're reading the scorecards. I don't want that heavily juiced line. So really nothing about Lucas Breski that I'm super excited about, but there's a big fade for me on Cortez Acosta as a minus 250 or so favorite against almost anyone at this point.”
Official UFC result confirms Lukasz Breschke ML; the stored lost outcome is correct.
“yeah going with my props god style pick Rinya Nakamura plus 600 by submission he's depending on the book roughly even money to win this fight and by submission in round one i should say he's”
Official UFC result confirms Rinya Nakamura by submission in round one; the stored lost outcome is correct.
“I'm going with Santos' money line at plus 125.”
Official UFC result confirms Taila Santos ML; the stored lost outcome is correct.
“What I really love, though, is on spots where you can bet the spread is Neil Magny plus 3.5. That basically means he just needs to win one round. So if he can do some cage push, hold him against the fence, mix in a takedown, steal a round, and then not get finished, you cash that bet at plus 165.”
Official UFC result confirms Neil Magny +3.5; the stored lost outcome is correct.
“my favorite way to play this one, again, if you have access to spread bets, is Munoz plus three and a half.”
Official UFC result confirms Pedro Munoz +3.5; the stored lost outcome is correct.
“find some 105s right now. What I really like, though, is Luque in four or five or by decision, just because I do think if Dos Anjos has to wrestle, has to take him down over and over, I can see Dos Anjos running out of gas here. Or, you know, kind of a close decision where Luque's strikes gets weighed over Dos Anjos' control time. That's all the way up at plus 320. So that's actually my preferred pick here.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Luque in round 4 or 5 or by decision settled won as recorded.
“I'm going to go with the decision no bet line on Cub Swanson, which means if a decision for either fighter happens, you get your bet refunded.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Cub Swanson decision no-bet settled push as recorded.
“Billy, in the prop market, you've also identified an inside the distance prop, but a different fighter. Who might that be? Yeah, I'm looking at Martin Buday, and honestly, just kind of swap out what Zerillo said about Fremden Pickett for Budai and his opponent, Josh Parisian. not really sure what Parisian's all that good at like in theory he's got some grappling upside but it doesn't really tend to work out he has two wins in the UFC one is a split decision over a guy who's since been cut and then one is a ground and pound over like probably one of the worst heavyweights we've seen in modern UFC history in Alain Boudot and Boudet has gone to decision in all of his UFC wins but he finished eight out of nine before that so really anytime we can get a fairly heavily favored heavyweight at decent plus money plus 175 that feels like the way to play it just because we know the finish rate for heavyweights is so much higher it is the small cage there's nowhere”
Official UFC event results confirm that Martin Buday inside the distance settled won as recorded.
“And Ruiz is like plus 205. She is a really high level wrestler She was on the Mexican national team competed in that stuff In her debut she just stuck the most simple head throw three straight times landed it got a scarf holder Kesuka Tommy, and held that position for three rounds. I like her desire to be on top. I like her willingness to push for wrestling and stuff like that. I think it's going to be a sketchy first round between these two with Amorim very likely to lock up a submission. But if it doesn't happen, it should be all Ruiz from there. Both of them have very, very bad striking, at least technically for MMA, but I think Ruiz has better power, a little bit more aggressive. So if it's one of those where we see, you know, someone's got better submission skills, but if she can't get it to the ground and Ruiz wants to keep it standing, I'd make her a slight favorite in those exchanges, even though I expect this to play out on the ground. So plus 205, fine with laying that juice, probably about a half unit for me here.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Montserrat Ruiz ML settled lost as recorded.
“So I'm going to take a small sprinkle at Rob Font in round one. He's won two of his last three wins with first round knockouts. I think he's the much more powerful striker here, where if Sandhagen gets a finish, it's going to be volume down the stretch. I also like under four and a half at minus 118. Kind of similar to a lot of the reasons Zarela said, just these guys put on such an output that I don't think Font is able to go 25 minutes if he doesn't get the finish early. You know, late stoppage from Sanhagen, cuts, just kind of beating him up, wearing him down over three, four, five rounds. That's how I see this one playing out if Font doesn't stop it. Obviously, you know, Font round one is plus 1900.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Rob Font to win in Round 1 settled lost as recorded.
“for a three-round fight. This is a five-round fight because it's a main event. He does have good cardio, generally speaking, but that's a lot. That makes it tough between the weight and you know, moving when you're peaking for your training camp and all that stuff. I don't really like that, but I do like his skill set for many of the reasons Zarela said. So I'm going to take a small sprinkle at Rob Font in round one. He's won two of his last three wins with first round knockouts. I think he's the much more powerful striker here, where if Sandhagen gets a finish, it's going to be volume down the stretch. I also like under four and a half at minus 118.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Under 4.5 rounds settled lost as recorded.
“so so on my top prop i probably in our little document here switched this back and forth five or six times between inside the distance and submission before i settled on it but i'm going to go with officially Diego Lopes inside the distance Diego Lopes is the archetype of something”
Official UFC event results confirm that Diego Lopes to win inside the distance settled won as recorded.
“on jeremiah wells because one thing i'm gonna do is bet on every henzo gracie philly guy that you give me an opportunity to in the ufc because when we talk about trust in the camp i think they won like 12 straight when sabatini wells and brady all got to the ufc petroski's over performed his expectations wells is 4-0 other than i we got sabatini's flash knockout against damon jackson and then brady lost to blow muhammad i think they're undefeated outside of that I don't know who officially counts as in the camp or not, so I don't want to go too into the woods. But yeah, and that's Jeremiah Wells this week. I thought this line was going to go the other way when he opened it like minus 155 or so. He's not, I think he's good as good as minus 125, which is just absurd to me. He's minus 122 right now at FanDuel. Okay. He's just more skilled than Carlston Harris I think across the board. Neither of them are great technical strikers. Harris kind of throws weird angled like chopping down punches. is Wells makes the mistake of leaping in with his strikes, and that catches him where his footwork gets bad, and that's when he gets hurt. We saw it both times in the Matthew Semelsberger fight. He wasn't really getting beat technically with a striking. He would jump in with a punch, land square, like in more of a wrestling stance, and then get caught, and his balance was all messed up. But then every time, while half unconscious, he was still able to take down one of the best athletes in the division in Matthew Semelsberger. It was a weird fight to judge because Wells got hurt, and then dominated the grappling, which we don't really know how to score. I think judges do a good job of rewarding how Wells gets his takedowns more than other people's. They're all extremely violent. He doesn't drag you down the way a wrestler does. He drives his shoulder through you on his shots. Also mixes in some good trips and throws and stuff that have some pretty high impact. I love his top game. He does a really good job when he's on top, not giving any space, following your hips. It's really hard to get back up against him. I also think the Semelsberger fight dispelled some of the myths that he has bad cardio because he dominated that third round despite being nearly unconscious on multiple occasions. Harris probably a slight slight edge in the striking Harris is a good grappler but he got like a tall man grappler game where he waits for you to shoot then locks up front headlocks and either spins behind or gets anacondas darses, that kind of thing. None of that's going to work on Wells. Wells is just an elite jiu-jitsu guy who's not going to be caught with those things. And they're both a little bit old. They both, I think, only have four fights in the UFC, but they're 36. So that's not really a factor either way on these guys. and finally I just think Wells has a massive athleticism advantage like when he hits people they just melt where Harris he's knocked some guys out and he hits kind of hard but he hits hard because he's winging weird punches from angles where Wells just has that natural power I ultimately think this is going to end up in a grappling match though which Wells grab I don't know if there's a welterweight that I would take over Wells in a grappling match right now like in the UFC period So again, it's not a welterweight anymore. He's going up. I'm not counting that. Shavkat maybe that might be the one. But so just, you know, we like guys who have the grappling edge. I think the striking is not much worse than a coin flip if it's much worse at all. And I'm for an O-betting Jeremiah Wells money line.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Jeremiah Wells ML settled lost as recorded.
“but you in the same boat as Zerillo on Pereira Price is coming down at plus 130 now as Zerillo mentioned So you not getting a number that you could have had earlier in the week So how are you feeling about Pereira today Still okay with a plus 130. This is what I've been on all week. I tweeted on Monday. This was my, you know, CLV play of the week when he was plus 145 or so.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Michel Pereira ML settled void as recorded.
“And we're getting plus 150 on this one to go over two and a half rounds. So that's my first of the two best bets.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Chiesa vs Holland over 2.5 rounds settled lost as recorded.
“so if tyberra wasn such a juicy underdog i would probably go with what sean recommending but i more than happy just take the money line [7:35] at plus 360 you know not a huge bet a little bit of a sprinkle on it”
Official UFC event results confirm that Marcin Tybura ML settled lost as recorded.
“so just seeing what one guy really likes to do well against the weakness of someone else and we're getting plus money i like ash moose could also play as knockout props i think the longer this one goes probably the lesser chance of cashing it is because duncan's the more technical all-around fighter but you know plus 135 solid chance i think the striking is going to be pretty close”
Official UFC event results confirm that Yanal Ashmouz ML settled lost as recorded.
“and then my other one is josh cooley bow [14:33] um he's fighting Lerone Murphy”
Official UFC event results confirm that Josh Culibao ML settled lost as recorded.
“billy your luck ratings article still mirrors the odds wood as we said minus 200 instead of laying the minus 200 juice another angle on playing wood for this weekend yeah i'm looking at the fan duel special the uh round three or decision prop on him at minus 110”
Official UFC event results confirm that Nathaniel Wood to win in round 3 or by decision settled won as recorded.
“Sandual is offering a bet at plus 155 where you win if Paul Craig gets his submission or Andre Muniz, his opponent, gets a TKO.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Paul Craig submission or Andre Muniz TKO settled lost as recorded.
“contender series about back in 2021 before being given another shot so Julio Filo looks like he certainly belongs here I don't know that we can say that about Perez and just like Zerlo with Roberts I take him to probably bet him at minus 125 minus 130 the minus 110 on FanDuel just feels like a gift.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Jafel Filho ML settled won as recorded.
“And I don't hate the style for MBS, but the other bet I'm making on it, a little bit more fun, is this fight to go to a split or a majority decision, just because of what I've talked about. Is Holly Holm going to win minutes? Absolutely. But will Myra Bruno win some moments that turn those around? It's always hard to judge a Holly Holm fight because she doesn't do a ton, but she's usually in the theoretically better position. So we never know what we're going to get on the judges' scorecards. obviously don't put a whole unit on this plus 450 prop but i think there's a greater than usual”
Official UFC event results confirm that Holm vs Bueno Silva to go to split or majority decision settled lost as recorded.
“That number is moving at plus 136 at FanDuel's. That might be a number you want to get sooner rather than later. Yeah, I had that actually in my notes was make sure to remind people now is the time if you're playing this one. But I'm also in alignment with Sean on Hafez, which I'll get to a little bit later. But I was very glad when I had my Lutz pick in here to see that I wasn't the only one thinking that way.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Lutz ML settled lost as recorded.
“I'm still more than happy with the minus 115.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Prado ML settled won as recorded.
“Volkanovski might be the best overall athlete in the UFC, especially when we consider his conditioning. He tends to build throughout the fight. We saw him almost take over in the fifth round against Makachev, despite being ground down for the round prior to that, which is why I'm taking his round four, round five, or by a decision prop, that's minus 105.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Volkanovski to win round 4, round 5, or by decision settled lost as recorded.
“So I'm also looking at the prelims i'm looking at marcine pratchnio he's fighting vitor petrino and this is kind of just the fight that we keep getting for pratchnio he was the one who fought william knight and like the worst fight ever where he just stayed on the edge and kicked william knight's calf while knight didn't really do anything petrino actually similar style definitely a brawler never really throws a jab just comes in big hooks big strong guy knows where they keep the weights but not super skilled with his hands and he just swings for the fences and tries to knock people out pratchnio has that kind of karate style which defensively is pretty sound and it's not just night he fought uh ike villanueva similar style khalil roundtree somewhat similar style not exactly and he's been able to you know maintain the range kick the legs keep relatively good defense much like sean's pick when he gets hit it's ugly like he looks like you know one or two shots he looks like he's on skates but he's managed to recover from those a couple times he's probably the better overall grappler than Petrino. Petrino's strength allows him to just kind of power wrestle here and there. But I'm not saying he should be the favorite or anything. We're getting close to two to one. The line's moved his way a little bit. I also think he's another good live spot because Petrino is definitely most dangerous round one. I'm sorry. Yeah. Petrino is definitely most dangerous round one. If Pratchnio can kick out his legs and stuff like that, Petrino is not going to have much later in the fight. All right. Excellent. There we go. There are two underdog picks.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Marcin Prachnio ML settled lost as recorded.
“The Shannon Ross-Jesus-Aguilar fight, I should say. Hopefully he's not fighting Jesus. That would be a problem for me. It would be a much tougher fight for him. But for the reasons Sean talked about, I like Shannon Ross' upside. He's got a huge reach advantage, should be the much better technical striker. Aguilar is a very, very good grappler, though. And also with his tiny arms and lack of neck, that makes it really hard to grapple him because he's a tiny person. And when those tiny people lock up a submission on you, you have no room to escape. There's absolutely nowhere to go. So for that reason, I'm taking the under two and a half at minus 148.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Under 2.5 rounds settled won as recorded.
“And then my other one, I'm going DDP, Drick is Duplessis, inside the distance at plus 400.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Du Plessis to win inside the distance settled won as recorded.
“another one i think on monday i tweeted it was the free clv pick of the week was jimmy crute and it's definitely moved that way minus 132 on fan duel right now i'd still take but it's stretching”
Official UFC event results confirm that Jimmy Crute ML settled lost as recorded.
“So I looking to [7:38] the decision no bets or finish only props. You can get Magomedov at minus 126 on those props.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Abus Magomedov finish-only (decision no bet) settled lost as recorded.
“Yeah, so I had this one in our sheet before I realized Sean was betting it too, and I was really excited that he was on it because I thought I was missing something when I looked at the line. I didn't know if it was a typo or there's some horrible injury on BSD that I didn't realize because a year or two ago, we were thinking just as highly of BSD as we were of Bonfim. He lost his UFC debut. Wasn't a great fight, but I'm kind of willing to overlook that to an extent. Two stoppages since then. Much bigger guy. That was one of the notes I put in mind. I think Bonfim should probably go down to featherweight, at least based on his frame. I think his brother is a featherweight, which maybe explains why they don't want to compete in the same weight class, but not really big enough frame-wise for lightweight. And yeah, he knocked out Terrence McKinney, but McKinney's wild, man. Like anyone can catch McKinney once he empties his gas tank. So that wasn't enough for me to say you should be minus 300. I think Bonfim should be the favorite here, but I'd make it like minus 150, maybe minus 200 Bonfim at worst. So getting the plus 250, plus 260 on BSD. Very glad someone else was on it because I thought I was just missing something.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Benoit Saint-Denis ML settled won as recorded.
“because once he gets back to his feet he's gonna be lost so I'm betting Damir Ismagulov on the money line. He's also going to be my prop squad pick, which we're going to lean into in a second.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Damir Ismagulov ML settled lost as recorded.
“So you can get as low as minus 190 on Renat. [26:38] I pointed that out in the luck ratings. [26:40] Didn't think that would last.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Rinat Fakhretdinov ML settled won as recorded.
“still trying to sweat while Jenkins is recovering. That's more than enough for me on Jenkins. I was happy to take him at plus 140 earlier in the week. Very excited at the plus 180 we can get now.”
Jack Jenkins beat Jamall Emmers by split decision, so the moneyline won as stored (UFC official event results).
“I couldn't believe when I saw the under two and a half was plus 150 or so.”
Mateusz Rębecki stopped Loik Radzhabov in Round 2, so under 2.5 rounds won as stored (UFC official results).
“But I'm actually playing it the other way. You can get Marsicle in round three or by decision at plus 410.”
Jose Mariscal beat Trevor Peek by unanimous decision, satisfying the Round 3-or-decision prop as stored (UFC official event results).
“I always like that analysis or thought. This is a tough one. So many of the bets that I really, really liked fit into other categories. So I was kind of struggling here. Definitely going to watch this one just because I love both fighters, but Amanda Hibis by decision at plus 105. I think, is this the co-main event or is the one right before, but one of the co-main, um, two of the better grapplers in the female division, you know, Hibis is a double black belt in judo and jujitsu.”
Maycee Barber stopped Amanda Ribas in Round 2, so the Ribas-by-decision prop lost as stored (UFC official results).
“That's why I'm going to my favorite, you know, FanDuel betting option, where you can get four [6:43] or five rounds four, rounds five, or by decision, if any of those happen, plus 110 on Vittori.”
Jared Cannonier beat Marvin Vettori by unanimous decision, so Vettori did not win by decision or in Rounds 4–5 (UFC official results).
“[10:39] But if he doesn't get it early, I think it's all Dalby from there on out [10:43] just based on the volume, which helps him win some minutes. [10:45] So this is one where if you're watching it live, [10:48] you could hold out and maybe try to bet Nicholas Dalby after round one, [10:51] cover some of that threat of early stoppage [10:54] and maybe even get a better line if he gets hurt. [10:55] but at plus 162, I'm more than happy just covering the money or taking the money line initially.”
Nicolas Dalby beat Muslim Salikhov by unanimous decision, so the moneyline won as stored (UFC official results).
“I said in the luck ratings I think when [13:45] the lines are released the best bet is probably on under two and a half that's minus 130 love that [13:50] now i'm going to trust my gut from earlier in the week you know sometimes it's hard to trust [13:53] the thing you said earlier as you get deeper into things i'm going to do that this one”
Pat Sabatini submitted Lucas Almeida in Round 2, so under 2.5 rounds won as stored (UFC official results).
“[15:07] this week for a prop yeah i'm looking at theresa bladesa her nickname is russian ronda as in ronda [15:13] rousey and that's not by accident and her her submission line is plus 460 which just seemed [15:19] really long given how heavy of a money line favorite she is she lost her ufc debut she got [15:24] knocked out in the third round she's kind of a first round or first half of the fight or bust [15:29] type fighter but she had natalia silva in a couple submissions that were fairly close [15:33] and just emptied the tank trying to finish them and it didn't work i think this is a better match [15:37] out for natalia silva who she fought in her debut is now three you know in the ufc and just looks”
Tereza Bledá beat Gabriella Fernandes by unanimous decision, not submission, so the prop lost as stored (UFC official results).
“[15:19] really long given how heavy of a money line favorite she is she lost her ufc debut she got [15:24] knocked out in the third round she's kind of a first round or first half of the fight or bust [15:29] type fighter but she had natalia silva in a couple submissions that were fairly close [15:33] and just emptied the tank trying to finish them and it didn't work i think this is a better match [15:37] out for natalia silva who she fought in her debut is now three you know in the ufc and just looks [15:41] like a monster um so i think she's able to get it done in this one i also like her inside the [15:47] distance sign at plus 200 because unlike her theoretical namesake here she does go for a lot”
Tereza Bledá beat Gabriella Fernandes by unanimous decision, so the inside-distance prop lost as stored (UFC official results).
“[18:37] I wouldn't say this is necessarily a best bet. [18:39] It's more of a final bet this weekend. [18:41] I really like the Dolby play, I think. [18:44] But, you know, obviously Fitzbetter is underdog or prop. [18:46] But I'm looking at Armen Petrosyan. [18:48] He's plus 122 on FanDuel. [18:50] I think if you shop around, you can get somewhere in the plus 130s.”
Armen Petrosyan beat Christian Leroy Duncan by unanimous decision, so the moneyline won as stored (UFC official results).
“[10:00] going with the hometown fighter here in a fight I expect to be close and competitive that is highly [10:04] lined to go to a decision. It's just an easy play, not to mention the physical advantages on top of [10:10] it. So Jasmine DeSidavis is down to about plus 250. I think it's a very sharp underdog bet for [10:15] Saturday. Billy, favorite underdog for UFC 289 in Vancouver? Yeah, this one was hard to choose. [10:23] There's actually, I'm kind of with Sean. There's a lot of underdogs I like here. I'm not taking as [10:27] big of a swing as he is on these plus 250 or so lines i do like Eryk Anders your boy at uh plus [10:33] 115 or so this has moved around throughout the week he's another one i talked about my luck”
Marc-André Barriault beat Eryk Anders by unanimous decision, so the Anders moneyline lost as stored (UFC official results).
“I'm officially going with Dan Ige by knockout at plus 170.”
Dan Ige beat Nate Landwehr by unanimous decision, not knockout, so the prop lost as stored (UFC official results).
“my best bet going with chris curtis money line sean hit on a lot of the points that i was”
Chris Curtis versus Nassourdine Imavov was ruled a no contest, so the Curtis moneyline was void as stored (UFC official results).
“so plus 180 not going to be a huge bet for me but just kind of playing the”
Daniel Santos beat Johnny Munoz by unanimous decision, so the Munoz moneyline lost as stored (UFC official results).
“minus 130 is still fine i'd probably play him to about minus 150 before it scared me off not sure”
Don'Tale Mayes stopped Andrei Arlovski in Round 2, so the moneyline won as stored (UFC official results).
“[6:52] think hill's going to win the stand-up portion and as sean pointed out you know is during going [6:56] to be able to get the takedowns or not we're not sure even if she does get the takedown if she gets [7:00] it late and doesn't get the submission the judges probably are going to give that to angela hill if [7:05] she does more of the striking earlier in the rounds we have seen judges with some late round bias which [7:10] concerns me a little bit you know kind of whoever wins the last minute even if they lost earlier [7:14] sometimes get some judging but you know hill by decision is my like quote unquote official play [7:20] here plus 210 like that but on a props god style bet i going angela hill by split or majority decision that as high as plus 800 it really tough to judge these jujitsu fighters who fight off their back You know all it takes is one judge that thinks Mackenzie Dern has been the more active fighter from her back”
Mackenzie Dern beat Angela Hill by unanimous decision, so Hill-by-decision lost as stored (UFC official results).
“[10:23] some of my picks this week but some of these younger fighters it's not so much handicapping [10:27] what they have done, but trying to figure out how much they've progressed. I think he still has a [10:32] lot more room for progression than Hernandez. Hernandez is 29, but been a pro fighter a little [10:36] bit longer. I think we've seen the best out of him. I think Hernandez should be the favorite here, [10:41] but not nearly at two to one odds or wherever he's at right now. So I think Shabazian starts [10:46] to live back up to the hype that he had coming into the UFC career now that he's filling out, [10:51] rounding out his game a little bit better. So I'll still take it at plus 175.”
Anthony Hernandez stopped Edmen Shahbazyan in Round 3, so the Shahbazyan moneyline lost as stored (UFC official results).
“as far as my prop I looking at Chase Hooper inside the distance at plus 200”
Chase Hooper beat Nick Fiore by unanimous decision, so the inside-distance prop lost as stored (UFC official results).
“I looking at Vanessa Demopolis at slight plus money And it another like age slash progression play”
Karolina Kowalkiewicz beat Vanessa Demopoulos by unanimous decision, so the Demopoulos moneyline lost as stored (UFC official results).
“being not his best self that's roughly your edge I think in the Sterling side so minus 111 I like”
Aljamain Sterling beat Henry Cejudo by split decision, confirming the stored moneyline win (UFC).
“[14:11] just 12 days notice or maybe 13. I forget exactly when they announced it. Not a ton of time to [14:16] prepare for a five-round fight. You know, Gilbert Burns, super high-level jiu-jitsu guy, as Dan [14:22] mentioned with Krong Gracie, not just a black belt, like a multi-time world champion in jiu-jitsu.”
Belal Muhammad beat Gilbert Burns by unanimous decision, so the Burns win-method prop lost as stored (UFC).
“51 49 this probably is my best bet on the card and that's Drew Dober by knockout at minus 110”
Matt Frevola stopped Drew Dober, so Dober-by-KO lost as stored (UFC).
“[7:12] you know so i'm also playing the knockout odds at plus 210 i'm gonna have both the money line [7:18] and the knockout i think it's probably the likelier way that song wins this even if it's a later one [7:23] just by you know accumulating damage over the course of it rather than one big shot and as sean pointed out he just 25 power is kind of one of the slower things to develop for fighters We seen him pick up knockouts in half of his UFC wins already”
Song Yadong stopped Ricky Simon, confirming the Song-by-KO/TKO prop win (UFC).
“[11:14] pitcher in the Reds organization and had never even had an amateur fight so at plus 160 I'm kind [11:20] of banking in that Waldo Cortez Acosta has developed a little bit more here than we've [11:25] seen in his last couple fights. I was a little bit disappointed with both of his first two UFC”
Marcos Rogério de Lima beat Waldo Cortes-Acosta by unanimous decision, so Waldo's moneyline lost as stored (UFC).
“[28:35] at this would be my best bet at the price it's at now it's more of a final bet but that's jamie [28:40] lynn horth uh money is poured in on her against hayley cohen this was roughly a pick him and i [28:45] think horth was even plus money when it was first announced now she's in the minus 150 range i just”
Jamey-Lyn Horth beat Hailey Cowan by unanimous decision, confirming the stored moneyline win (UFC).
“[14:52] squad later i actually like this fight to end in split or majority decision at plus 600 tavaris is probably going to land more strikes than bruno Silva Silva is going to land the harder strikes and also has some grappling edge That hard to [15:05] judge. I'd feel even better about this line if we were in Missouri or Texas or somewhere with [15:09] horrible judging, but that one's plus 600. I really like that just because, you know, it's kind of [15:14] down to the individual judges, whether three light strikes equals one heavy strike or something to [15:18] that effect, which is how I see the likeliest outcome here. But in terms of a money on play, [15:23] Silva has all the finishing upside, both on the ground and standing. [15:26] So plus money, I'll take that.”
Bruno Silva stopped Brad Tavares, confirming the stored moneyline win (UFC).
“[14:52] squad later i actually like this fight to end in split or majority decision at plus 600 tavaris is probably going to land more strikes than bruno Silva Silva is going to land the harder strikes and also has some grappling edge That hard to [15:05] judge. I'd feel even better about this line if we were in Missouri or Texas or somewhere with [15:09] horrible judging, but that one's plus 600.”
Bruno Silva stopped Brad Tavares, so the split-or-majority-decision prop lost as stored (UFC).
“I'm just taking her round one line. It's as high as plus 600.”
Cachoeira-Silva was cancelled after Cachoeira missed weight, confirming the stored void (UFC).
“you can get over plus 150 on one side of it. This is like a half unit bat for me [8:07] on Arnold Allen.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Arnold Allen ML settled lost as recorded.
“I really like Pedro [9:56] Munoz at plus 176.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Pedro Munhoz ML settled won as recorded.
“[11:27] You know, Quarantillo, it's kind of another fight where he's fought lesser competition, [11:31] has some good luck in terms of split decisions here. [11:34] But if you just look at the guys he wins, he beat three straight guys who have all been cut from the UFC. [11:39] And then there's two more recent wins are guys who are roughly 500 in the UFC, [11:42] where Barboza has been fighting just a much higher level of competition for a really long time. [11:47] And I'm going to get into a little MMA math here, which I don't love doing, but do more than I probably should. [11:51] They both fought Shane Burgos in 2021.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Edson Barboza ML settled won as recorded.
“i'm looking at uh Tanner Boser in round three or by decision at plus 250 on sandal”
Official UFC event results confirm that Tanner Boser in round 3 or by decision settled lost as recorded.
“I do like the raw dog, Brandon Roy Val. He's plus one 60 on sandal.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Brandon Royval ML settled won as recorded.
“[10:00] Last fight and rematches are better than 500 straight up on the money line. [10:03] We're getting plus money on Peje. [10:06] I'm with Sean. [10:07] I'm also going to play the inside the distance. [10:08] Five rounds is a long time for a guy like that with so much power. [10:11] Adesanya pretty much needs to win this fight for 25 minutes [10:14] where Peje just needs to win a 10-second exchange”
Official UFC event results confirm that Alex Pereira inside the distance settled lost as recorded.
“Steve Garcia is about, I think we got him at plus 155, [14:18] somewhere in there, depending on where you look.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Steve Garcia ML settled won as recorded.
“[15:47] of just a disrespectful line you know sean's going to talk about masvidal's underrated grappling [15:52] defense with his pick and that's playing into mine too mine's more of a prop prop squad style pick [15:57] but plus 700 on a knockout line for a guy who pretty much only wins by a knockout is a real [16:02] good price burns has also shown a little bit of issues with his chin in the past you know he's not [16:07] a guy i'd say has a glass chin by any stretch but he got knocked out at lightweight before he came [16:11] up to welterweight got knocked out by usman which no shame in that but usman doesn't knock a ton of [16:16] people out so for him to get knocked out by what tapology calls a power jab is not a great sign”
Official UFC event results confirm that Jorge Masvidal by KO settled lost as recorded.
“[22:20] who he had decision plus two 40 font fee is a decision plus two 85. [22:23] Expect both to have the striking volume edge If it goes 15 minutes Billy as you tease do you have some pushback to Zerillo You backing Rosas in a certain fashion in the prop market [22:36] And if you missed it a second ago, Zerillo did back Christian Rodriguez as a money line underdog. [22:41] Go ahead, Billy. What do you got? [22:43] Yeah, I'm going to bet Rosas inside the distance at slight plus money, about plus 120. [22:48] Now, this is not saying that you couldn't also take Sean's pick on Rodriguez's money line, [22:53] because I do think Rosas needs to win this one inside the distance.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Raul Rosas Jr inside the distance settled lost as recorded.
“[26:25] A best bet that's not a best bet. [26:26] You know, I'm joking. [26:27] No, for once and in disagreement with Zerlo, [26:31] I actually have one that I truly think is my best bet. [26:34] And he teed it up perfectly talking about enthusiasm over skill. [26:37] Luana Pinero, I wrote her up in the luck rankings. [26:40] I was shocked that we could get her at minus 165 last week when I wrote it up.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Luana Pinheiro ML settled won as recorded.
“[7:16] he's eventually won. [7:17] Sandhagen is one and two in fights that have gone out of the three rounds. [7:21] Obviously there's some differences in the level of competition with Sandhagen, [7:24] you know fighting title holders and whatnot but I still think that telling as to how these guys are going to fight and where their strengths are so as sean alluded to i looking at vera in the fourth fifth or decision [7:35] you get all three of those options at fan duel at plus 330 very similar to the over two and a half [7:39] you know you're getting a slightly better price to give up the last half of the third round [7:43] but i think if cheeto is to win this it's going to happen late i wouldn't be surprised by a late”
Official UFC event results confirm that Chito Vera to win in round 4, round 5, or by decision settled lost as recorded.
“[11:33] And I'll be happy to have my pre-fight money line ticket on him going into round two. [11:38] So let's add more after round one on Ogden. [11:41] But I think pre-fight he's worth making a bet on as well [11:43] in the event that he wins that first round. [11:46] Billy, underdog that you like for the weekend. [11:49] Yeah, I really like Austin Lingo. [11:50] He's somewhere in the plus 170, plus 180 range against Nate Landwehr.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Austin Lingo ML settled lost as recorded.
“so I'm going to go half a unit each on cop in round one and Perez by decision.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Manel Kape to win in round 1 settled void as recorded.
“so I'm going to go half a unit each on cop in round one and Perez by decision.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Alex Perez by decision settled void as recorded.
“But gun to my head for this one, I'm going with Trevin Giles at minus 110,”
Official UFC event results confirm that Trevin Giles ML settled won as recorded.
“but I'm going with Delizze at plus 225.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Roman Dolidze ML settled lost as recorded.
“[24:05] is 25, undefeated in the UFC, from Scotland. So, you know, this is kind of a home game for her as [24:11] well Just like we saw with Fizzi even this is a fight that the UFC booked to make Casey O look good to bring her towards the title picture to make her a future contender against a veteran who has a name that some people might know but has probably seen her best days already behind her So she minus 170 [24:29] Part of that is because Casey O'Neal tore her ACL last year, which I think is part of what's [24:33] leading into the line, but she's 25. It's been almost a year. We see younger athletes these days [24:39] tear ACLs and come back in shorter time frames than that. And it's really not as big of a deal, [24:44] I don't think, personally, in mixed martial arts relative to basketball or football or other sports. [24:49] So minus 170, it's actually moved a little bit. I gave it out at minus 170 last night,”
Official UFC event results confirm that Casey O'Neill ML settled lost as recorded.
“the bet i'm making on it is jan in rounds four rounds five or by decision you know [6:59] the fan duel multiple rounds that's minus 120”
Official UFC event results confirm that Yan in rounds 4, 5, or by decision settled lost as recorded.
“[12:13] I would make Gravely a slight favorite, and you can get him at plus 124.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Tony Gravely ML settled lost as recorded.
“And real quick, [12:17] not going to do a full explanation on this, Tyson Nam, plus 170, love him this week.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Tyson Nam ML settled lost as recorded.
“So his inside the distance line, though, on Dumas is still minus 125. I think that's a massive value”
Official UFC event results confirm that Sedriques Dumas inside the distance settled lost as recorded.
“Shevchenko in rounds four, rounds five, or by decision is plus 120. [13:11] That's my favorite way of playing it.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Shevchenko in rounds 4, 5, or by decision settled lost as recorded.
“I'm looking at the Ian Gary Machado versus Kenan Song fight that one's plus [23:37] 230 to go to a decision”
Official UFC event results confirm that Garry vs Song to go to decision settled lost as recorded.
“[27:22] So perfect cue up by Zarello. [27:24] I looking at Amanda Hebes I believe the best line is now about minus 120 And I going to do a little bit of MMA math here which I going to get dragged for People don like it It not a great way to handicap generally but hear me out [27:36] Amanda Hibis and Vivian Adehujo, both one and two in their last three.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Amanda Ribas ML settled won as recorded.
“Aileen Perez minus 102 on the money line. Yet another fighter you talked about in your luck ratings piece coming off of a short notice fight where she debuted up a weight division. Aileen Perez moving back to her proper weight class here. You like her to get the win.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Aileen Perez ML settled void as recorded.
“[6:42] late. I'm riding with Blanchfield. The line has moved tremendously her way. When this fight was [6:46] announced andrage was minus 180 minus 190 somewhere in that range so sharp money has been coming in on [6:52] blanchfield the whole way i like her money line i think you know plus 110 plus 115 is fine i'd bet”
Official UFC event results confirm that Erin Blanchfield ML settled won as recorded.
“I think does not go to a decision at plus 108 at FanDuel right now.”
Official UFC 284 results confirm Rodriguez-Emmett ended by submission rather than decision, so this settled won as recorded.
“[23:48] So Melsic has all the volume upside. [23:51] He throws a lot more strikes. [23:53] His strikes at least appear to be landing harder. [23:56] Basically a coin flip, I'll take that. [23:57] I'd take him down to about minus 120, [23:59] but shop around because this one's gone all over the place throughout the [24:01] week.”
Official UFC 284 results confirm Melsik Baghdasaryan lost to Josh Culibao as recorded.
“I took Oliveira earlier in the [6:08] week at plus 160. As Sean pointed out, you know, a month or so ago, you could get almost plus 200 [6:13] in certain places. So, you know, I still like him at plus 142 or whatever we're seeing him at”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“I really think Sterling's the sharper side of this one. [8:28] You know, we've seen the line move actually a little bit in that direction. [8:32] I would still take the minus 175.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“[19:12] Anything can happen in an MMA fight. [19:14] But people, I think, wrongfully assume that because the guy is that much better, that necessarily means he's going to get a finish. [19:20] Mokaev picked up 12 takedowns, totally dominated Charles Johnson in his last fight, and it went all 15 minutes. [19:26] You know, he kind of stunned Cody Durden with a punch and then guillotined him in their first fight. [19:30] I don't think that's really his game plan. [19:32] I don't know if that's what he's going to come out here and try to do. [19:34] And it's also a flyweight fight. So, you know, we obviously don't see as much finishes in the lower weight classes as we do in the heavier ones. So plus 270 by decision just seems weirdly long to me given the overall money line odds. I understand and I think he probably will put him away late. But it's not all that shocking with that kind of number to see that does he ride him out for 15 minutes? You know, is that is it a tough enough bout or does he put up enough resistance or does he play it safe enough and want to show what he can do against Malcolm?”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“[21:08] You know, he is not some world beater just because his last name is Nurmagomedov. [21:12] Godziev, he lost his UFC debut, but that was to Kyle Bahio, [21:15] who we see fighting on this card. [21:16] I think Kyle Bahio is like a future and probably not too far into the future title contender. [21:21] So I don't think there's any shame in that. [21:22] And even that loss Godziev was kind of starting to turn it on when they had the illegal strike from Kaio which then was a technical decision which in a lot of worlds would have been a disqualification win for Godziev And we probably be looking at this entirely differently if he had a DQ win instead of a technical decision loss So just based on the overvaluing of the name here [21:41] I'm going to take Gadziev at plus 140 or so.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“I did the Gan in over nine and a half [6:34] minutes which is exactly in between the two that Sean said that's the lowest total you can get and [6:39] still get plus money on the Gan side so I'm going to have that”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“[6:01] almost never has reach, almost never the better technical fighter. But like five or six straight [6:06] times, his fights have ended with him drinking a beer out of a shoe and giving some incomprehensible [6:10] interview. So I don't know, like it's really, Sean's right, it's very hard to see a way on paper [6:16] that he beats him but I'm definitely playing the Tai Tuivasa knockout odds I don't see why that's [6:21] not the exact same as his money line odds he's not going 25 minutes and winning minutes from [6:25] Cyril Gane and he's certainly not going to take him down and you know I've kind of split the [6:30] difference with the bet that I already put in on this one but I did the Gan in over nine and a half”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“The one I'm going to talk about right now is Ailin Perez, UFC debutante. [8:33] You can get her a plus 215 on FanDuel still.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“[13:31] the longer his fight goes I think is a solid play Billy favorite prop on the board yeah I mean my [13:37] favorite pop is certainly to Ivasa by knockout but outside of that one I'm looking at uh William [13:43] Gomez versus Jarno Aarons and you guys could tell by how much I struggle to pronounce those names I [13:49] don't know a ton about either of these guys they're both making their usa debut neither have fought in [13:53] like really big european or regional promotions or anything like that just not a ton of information [13:57] on either of them but you can get at fan duel their fight to end inside the distance at minus [14:02] 142 which is definitely the most generous line on that because i'm seeing 160s 180s elsewhere”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“Joaquin Buckley, he's now down to plus 200 at FanDuel. [20:05] And I still think that's a tremendous value.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“I also on Marcin Tibera at plus 300 It just such a massive step up in competition for Alexander Romanov”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“where I'm actually pretty excited to Jose Aldo, plus 120, plus 125 or so.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“Yeah, you know, similar to your angle with the high altitude being rough on the fighters with worse cardio, Francisco Figueiredo is fighting tomorrow. He's plus 370 on the money line just to win the fight. And if you think that's roughly efficient, his inside the distance props would probably be about plus 375 or plus 380. He is not lasting 15 minutes against anyone in Utah and winning anything. So just you can get him inside the distance. It's plus 750 right now. It's not a bet that I love. I actually don't think this one is likely to go his way against Amir Albazi, who's looked really good in recent fights. But just from a math standpoint, there's no way that his win probability by decision is as high as these markets are telling us, given how god-awful his cardio is and the fact that it's at elevation. So, yeah, plus 750 on figure 80, you know, 0.1, 0.2 unit bet”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“but with most of that being gone the one i really wanted to talk about is the victor altamirano Daniel Da Silva fight. I can't recall ever seeing a flyweight fight that's plus 180 to go to a decision. And, you know, Sean was talking about with bigger guys getting tired. A lot of times if the big guys get tired, one guy lands a heavy punch and knocks each other out. If flyweights get tired, they don't have enough power or strength left to really put each other out. There's not that much difference between the type of punch that a heavyweight can take versus a flyweight. Our brains can only take so much impact regardless of size. So when we get these little guys, they both have a ton of output. They're fighting at altitude. I don't think either of them are going to be too familiar with that. I just can't see a flyweight fight at plus 180 to go to a decision and not take that.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“okay and that's uh billy understanding where sean's coming from there like just the slow starts how do you respond to that and then how are you going to bet the fight yeah i mean honestly i think probably the sharpest bet of all of these between anything we're going to say is is the very live angles this isn't one that i particularly love the angle on before the fight there's more of like if i had to bet it than something i'm excited to run and grab the ticket on but you can get very by decision at plus 155 which just seems a little high to me against a fighter who is as strong defensively as Dominick Cruz is. You know, we're getting a guy who's a very heavy favorite overall on the money line. And then we're getting plus money to not finish Dominick Cruz, who like is really really hard to finish And I think it tricky because you see a lot with Vera He doesn really land one big hard shot He just continuously hits and hits and hits and accumulates a lot of them so that where some of those late stoppages come into play too where his last fight against Rob Font probably could have been stopped on a couple different occasions down the stretch but there's never that one moment where he just totally rocks a guy and takes him out of there it's just a lot of heavy shots over and over and over and over so that's what makes me a little bit scared you know you could certainly hedged this with like Vera round four, Vera round five bets at long odds. But yeah, you know, I see it playing out fairly similar to what Sean's saying, but that's just why I'm on the decision.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“So this is one I would definitely bet quick”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“markets happy to take some stabs on gm3 billy you might not be on him for his money line but you have you have a little confidence you can keep this keep this fight alive for a few rounds yeah you know the bet i mentioned before this in our emails was uh i'm looking at the over one and a half it plus money it's like plus 104 plus 105 depending on where you look and it really is just a bet on gm3 keeping this one competitive”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“What do you got for us, Billy, in the prop market? Yeah, you know, I'm getting a little speculative on how one of these fighters is going to respond. but I'm looking at the rescheduled match between Priscilla Kachahaya and Ariane Lipski. So the backstory on this, they're supposed to fight last week at 125. Lipsky came in at like 128 point something, and then wasn't medically cleared to continue with the fight, even though Kachahaya was willing to do it. So that tells me she had a pretty big cut just to get to 128, 129. They only pushed it back a week. You know, this was just last week that happened. I'm guessing if she was depleted that much to get down to the 128 range, she walks around a little bit heavier than 135. I don't think a six pound cut would have done that to anyone. So now we're asking this fighter who couldn't make weight last time and then couldn't even get medically cleared after missing weight by almost three pounds. We're asking her to do it again. I'll be at 135 this week, but I still think that it's going to be somewhat of a cut for her. I'm guessing after not being medically cleared last week, they pumped her full of fluid. She got her Pedialyte. She got her Gatorade, possibly even an IV, all that. Bounced back up a little bit. I don't think that's a good situation to be in if you're a fighter that short thereafter. You know, I'd like to see this fight a month down the line or whatever. And you know we talked about Kat Shea last week They call her zombie girl She walks forward throws a ton of punches not a lot of interest in defense But if she fighting a depleted Ariane Lipski I think she can put her away And you're getting plus 500 on that. Her knockout odds, which are by far the more likely way this is going to go, is plus 550. But I'm willing to, you know, spend that little bit of extra juice just to get the club and sub potential covered, too. So plus 500 against what's probably an extremely depleted fighter. You know, I really don't like having to make a fighter cut weight in back-to-back weeks like that, especially when it went so poorly the first time. So for plus 500, I really like Keshawaya inside the distance.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“I'm Jason Witt at plus 235.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“here as well billy how are you playing the main event yeah i'm seeing it a little bit differently than sean but kind of along the same lines i just think with it being a five round fight i have a really hard time seeing this one go all five rounds i think hill gets it done before that and it's just a way better line at hill by tko is minus 140 there's almost zero chance he submits submits him or submits anyone. So if you're going to play inside the distance, you might as well get the better price on the knockout, and that's minus 140. And mostly with Sean, I think it's likelier to happen late. You know, Santos has been complaining a little bit about some of his opponents not wanting to get in fistfights with him and not wanting to strike back and forth. So I think Santos is going to be bringing it forward a little bit. I don't think he's going to try to offensively wrestle. With that said, every fighter says that every time, how they just want to stand and bang. if he's smart he wouldn't actually do that against hill but i really think hill has the best striking in the division or at least the best boxing and you know he's a really good counter striker so if santos is really coming forward i think he eventually finds him and puts him out late so yeah i don't hate the over one and a half over two and a half but i think he'll finish them a little bit later on to this fight and minus 140 for his tko line i think if he wins it it you know 80 90 chance that he wins it by knockout so that what i playing yeah i was thinking hill like round three 4 5 which is why those 1 those 2 were interesting to me But I kind of like scared to play the go decision”
UFC's official Santos vs Hill results record Jamahal Hill by KO/TKO, confirming the prop settled won as recorded. (Jamahal Hill KO/TKO)
“My favorite underdog is Miranda Granger. [10:28] She's at plus 185 on MGM is the best line.”
UFC's official Santos vs Hill results record Cory McKenna as the winner, confirming Miranda Granger ML settled lost as recorded. (Cory McKenna win)
“So if I'm going to play it, I'll just take the four to one odds, lay like half a unit on it and, you know, hope Neil gets the decision.”
UFC's official Santos vs Hill results record Geoff Neal by KO/TKO, confirming the decision prop settled lost as recorded. (Geoff Neal KO/TKO)
“probably end up playing both billy props what do you like yeah well i really like it's really hard to get up if you don't try to which is one of those weird truisms but yeah um i'm looking at the female fight between priscilla cachohea and Ariane Lipski uh cachohea is nicknamed zombie girl because she kind of just walks forward korean zombie style just taking punches to the head she eats almost eight significant strikes per minute in her fight and she's seen three of her last four go and inside the distance so his lipski so I'm targeting the under two and a half I just think catch your his style kind of makes it so either she gets finished or her opponent does she just going to walk forward until somebody dies and I prefer the under two and a half it plus 155 you can get plus 120 that it ends inside the distance but the odds of the stoppage happening in the last two and a half minutes are probably not as high as that line”
UFC's official Santos vs Hill results record Priscila Cachoeira's first-round KO/TKO, confirming the under settled won as recorded. (Priscila Cachoeira KO/TKO)
“UFC fight night. Yeah, Sean referenced it a little bit, but I'm actually seeing the Terrence McKinney fight a little bit differently. So I'm going to set this up for you guys a little bit. He's had three fights in the UFC. I believe two of them are on short notice. He has two wins, both in under two minutes and 11 seconds. Then he comes out against Drew Dober, looks awesome early on, drops Dober, but then totally just tank gases out, ends up losing the fight, gets knocked out three and a half minutes in. If I'm Terrence McKinney's camp or his team, or even McKinney himself, I'm thinking that we need to get him some cage time. We need to get him, you know, practice at a measured pace, have him lasting longer in a fight. But when are you going to do that You not going to do that in a tough fight against Drew Dober You going to do it against Erick Gonzalez who 0 in the UFC and got knocked out by million Jim Miller in his debut This is a pretty non matchup for McKinney I think So I expect them to come out and just try to build some cage time If this hits the second round, that's going to be more time than he spent in a UFC octagon in his previous three fights. And the best way I can see to bet that is the fight to start round two is plus 130. I have a suspicion that his camp is going to tell him, hey, let's win round one, like, you know, touch him up, win some minutes, and then round two kind of unleash him once we've worn him down a little bit. You know, it's hard to say because I don't know what they're thinking. I know that's what I would do if I were in McKinney's camp, and he just needs to build some endurance up a little bit there, get some experience in a fight that he doesn't win in 12 seconds. So at plus money, I think that's probably likely than not to happen. It's also just crazy”
UFC's official Santos vs Hill results record Terrance McKinney's first-round submission, confirming the round-two-start prop settled lost as recorded. (Terrance McKinney submission)
“Okay, and Billy, you've got a similar thought. That last thought from Zarrillo going inside the distance on Nunez. Yeah, that's how I'm playing it, at least initially. I think probably the sharpest way is Nunez inside the distance. If we get a better price on Pena after one or two rounds, hit that live. But I don't know. This is a tough one. I think we need to look a little bit past some of the usual ways we handicap stuff with this because Nunez at her best is just so much better of a fighter than we've ever seen out of Pena. But it's a reasonable question about whether she still is at her best. You know, she's pushing 35, I believe, coming into this one or just turned 34. But, you know, is it that she's declining or does she have a lot of weird stuff going on before the last one? That was the first time in over two years she had fought at 135 in the last one. She had also apparently had COVID somewhat close to that fight coming into it. So I think some of those cardio issues while they been a longer standing problem for her I think they were definitely exacerbated And we truly did see her quit in that second round you know that rear naked she got caught in It wasn so much that it was a perfectly executed choke It was you know Amanda Nunes had decided she didn want to be there anymore. I'm playing it where I think just what we've seen from her historically is enough to convince me that that was more of a fluke than the new normal. And if that's the case, then just the value we're getting on her versus where her lines were before are so strong. So So inside the distance at minus 125, you know, Sean alluded to that, how much those lines have changed since last time.”
UFC's official UFC 277 results record Amanda Nunes by decision, confirming Nunes inside the distance settled lost as recorded. (Amanda Nunes decision win)
“I'm going to have a pre-fight bet on car France inside the distance because plus 500 on that is just crazy.”
UFC's official UFC 277 results record Brandon Moreno by KO/TKO, confirming Kai Kara-France inside the distance settled lost as recorded. (Brandon Moreno KO/TKO)
“but my preferred line on that is just that the fight ends in round one at plus 200”
UFC's official UFC 277 results record Nicolae Negumereanu by decision, confirming the first-round-end prop settled lost as recorded. (Nicolae Negumereanu decision win)
“All right, Billy, how about an underdog, your favorite dog for the weekend? Yeah, I really like the fight between Hannah Goldie and Molly McCann. You know, Goldie is a pretty prohibitive underdog. She opened about 310 and it's gone all the way up to plus 350. So I'm glad I didn't bet this one earlier in the week, but I was considering it. I just think McCann's odds or lines are just so juiced because of that spinning back elbow knockout she landed in her last fight, which was also here in 02. And that's not something that I don't want to say is a fluke or lucky because like she's practiced that a million times, I'm sure. But that's not something that's repeatable that we're going to do on a fight in and fight out basis. And it's kind of just a theory thing where we're seeing a fight. It's the one that's most likely to go to a decision on the card. You can get one side at plus 350. You know, that's the side I want to be on. I've got a little bit of concern over some unfavorable judging for the American fighters against the Brits here. But this kind of odds, it's too hard to avoid. You know, both women throw a ton of volume. Both should land a lot of strikes.”
UFC's official London results record Molly McCann by KO/TKO, confirming Hannah Goldy ML settled lost as recorded. (Molly McCann KO/TKO)
“Billy are you picking a side or is there another angle yeah if I had to pick a side I think I would actually lean Curtis There just a little bit of similarity between the matchups and the guys they fought before You know Sean right in that it a step up but he fought guys who pretty much wanted to bring him to the ground. That was their only game plan. And he has 100% takedown defense against guys like Phil Hawes and Brendan Allen, who are solid grapplers too. And, you know, we saw Hermanson get picked apart a little bit by Sean Strickland. That's a training partner Chris Curtis is, and Curtis definitely has more power. So I don't think Hermanson is going to survive that many shots from Curtis. With all that said, I don't think that's the best way to play it unless we can get plus money on Curtis. I'm looking at the under two and a half. This one seems pretty binary in that if it goes to the mat and Hermanson can get those takedowns, I think he puts away Curtis on the ground. And if Curtis can deny one or two of those and make Hermanson tire himself out going for him, he should be able to get the knockout. Neither of these guys really tend to last a long time. Six of Hermanson's nine wins in the UFC were stoppages, all either ground and pound or submission. So it seems like whichever arena this one stays in, that guy's going to get a finish, and under two and a half is even money right now. So there's a little bit of danger of a late stoppage from either guy, but I'll take the under two and a half at even money.”
UFC's official London results record Jack Hermansson by decision, confirming the under settled lost as recorded. (Jack Hermansson decision win)
“I got Paul Craig by submission at plus 250 He opened at plus 150 on the money line”
UFC's official London results record Volkan Oezdemir by decision, confirming Paul Craig by submission settled lost as recorded. (Volkan Oezdemir decision win)
“or Craig inside the distance. Thanks. And for Billy, your best bet of the 14 fights, you're on a money line pick. What do you got? Yeah, I'm worried about this one. I'm worried it going to be pretty unpopular but I looking at a noted handicapper by the way Jordan Leavitt who you know we talked about him in his last fight He came out and gave a probabilistic answer And that speaks to his fight IQ But he fighting Paddy Pimblett as most people listening probably know And I understand why Patty the favorite He's looked good. But man, there's so many holes in his game. He runs in with his hands down and his chin up. He's wild on the ground. He's leaving all kinds of stuff out there. Somebody is going to take advantage of that as a significant underdog against Paddy Pimblett. And it just might be Jordan Leavitt. I'm not convinced that it will be, but he has tons of grappling upside. You know, we saw him make his USA debut with a vicious slam. It's something I truly never seen before. We posted on a guy's head before slamming him. He finds submissions. He finds a way to win. I just think there's enough cracks in what Pimblitt brings to the table that someone's going to find a way to exploit it. I think Leavitt's a pretty sharp guy. I think he's going to be looking at those things. So when you can get him all the way up at plus 225, I got to take that.”
UFC's official London results record Paddy Pimblett by submission, confirming Jordan Leavitt ML settled lost as recorded. (Paddy Pimblett submission)
“So, yeah, Rodriguez plus 145, straight money line, Ortega at minus 170.”
UFC's official Ortega vs Rodriguez results record Yair Rodriguez as the winner, confirming Yair Rodriguez ML settled won as recorded. (Yair Rodriguez TKO)
“Billy, we'll start with you, your favorite dog. Yeah, I'm looking at the opening main card bout between Lauren Murphy and Miesha Tate. And this is one I just, I kind of don't get why Tate's even favored to begin with. You know, she had almost five years off of competition, comes back, beats a fighter who's now 9'8 and 1 as a pro. Great, but that doesn't really count for much. And then gets kind of manhandled by Ketlin Vieira in the next fight. Now she's dropping down to 125. You know, I really don't like older fighters. She's 35, dropping down a weight class. Sometimes I think it's kind of like a last-ditch effort. Like, I'm not going to make it at this one. So rather than get better, I'm going to try to move to a weight class where I might be the bigger, stronger fighter. and Murphy's good you know she's a little bit older at 38 but she was on a five fight winning streak before she lost to Shevchenko which like you know Shevchenko would destroy Miesha Tate as well so I don't think we really hold that one against her and you can get her about plus 180 so that seems like a pretty easy one for me just given the layoff you know they're both older but Murphy's obviously been way more active in recent years and I'm just not impressed by you know the 2022 version of Miesha Tate until I'm proven wrong. How about you, Zerillo? Underdog play.”
UFC's official Ortega vs Rodriguez results record Lauren Murphy as the winner, confirming Lauren Murphy ML settled won as recorded. (Lauren Murphy decision win)
“Billy, where are you looking? Yeah, I'm looking at the co-main event between Amanda Lemos and Michelle Waterson. For people who don't know the backstory, Watterson was out for a little over a year. No one's ever really came out and said what her injury was, but she allegedly had some kind of career threatening injury thought about retiring all that kind of stuff but she's back and she's fighting amanda lamosh they both have real similar striking styles where they like to sit on the outside and snipe neither throws it a ton of volume but lamosh just has crazy power for a female fighter her knockdown rate is basically the same as like li jingling and muslim salikov who are fighting before them she has almost as many knockdowns per minute as those two combine which is just insane for, you know, 125 pound or 115 pound female fight. And Waterson's kind of hittable. She's going to sit on the outside against a fighter who's an inch taller and with three inches more in reach. I think Lamos is going to pick her off. So I'm not going to lay the minus 325 on the Lamos money line. You can get her inside the distance at plus 200. Her knockout odds just on their own are plus 225. But, you know, I'll take a little bit worse value just in case there's a club and sub situation or something like that where she gets the tap. And that just seems way too long to me. I think this one is pretty likely to end inside the distance. I think Lamos is, you know, a huge level above her and just physically stronger. And the power differential is just insane. So I think she'll be able to put her away. Don't like a fighter coming off from a year long break with a possibly career threatening injury as well.”
UFC's official Ortega vs Rodriguez results record Amanda Lemos by submission, confirming the inside-distance prop settled won as recorded. (Amanda Lemos submission)
“To give the people at home some intel on the Action Network podcast, typically Billy and Sean will send out their picks the night before before we record And you know a lot of different picks on the board but here here we are at best bets and we arrived you both on the same best bet this week billy why don you tell the people what it is and then sean can add to it i had no idea i actually didn't get the email from sean this week so i was waiting in suspense as you set this one up oh but uh yeah so apparently we're both on lii jing lang he's fighting muslim salikov the way i see it they're both fairly similar fighters stylistically. You know, they both have a Sonda background, which for those who don't know, it's it's basically MMA without the groundwork once it gets to the ground, but you're still allowed to do trips and throws and takedowns and stuff like that. Both have fairly good striking volume, fairly good power. For me, to a degree, it's an age play. You know, Salikov is 38, hasn't fought in over a year. The fighter he fought then was like 42 at the time. So he really hasn't been almost two years since he's fought a still in their prime fighter. And Xing Leng has lost two of his last three, but he was sacrificed to Kamzat, which can't hold that against anyone. And then he lost a close decision to Neil Magny. Outside of that, he's been really, really good. Huge power. Both guys are going to kind of look for that one shot. So getting him at plus money, I can still see plus 144 at FanDuel right now. I think that's a pretty good value. All right, Sean, why are you on this pick as well?”
UFC's official Ortega vs Rodriguez results record Li Jingliang as the winner, confirming Li Jingliang ML settled won as recorded. (Li Jingliang KO/TKO)
“[4:28] And I don't think RDA is one of the guys who's going to suffer from the scoring changes or the way we've seen the scoring in force, because he actually works pretty aggressively when he's on the top. [4:36] He's not just controlling you. He's trying to beat you up. He's trying to find submissions. [4:40] So initially I was going to just do a little bit of a spring on RDA plus 180, but looked around. [4:45] And I think the best way to play it, if you want to be on the underdog side, is you can parlay RDA in the over three and a half at plus 300 on DraftKings. [4:52] I don really see him winning early I don see him just storming through him But if he can take over late you know get a late fourth round fifth round stoppage or by decision plus 300 is a pretty good line on that for a guy who got some of the best wrestling in the division especially as a lightweight you know he fought up at welterweight as well [5:07] so i'm going to sprinkle a little bit on that at plus 300 but not a heavy bet for me not something [5:11] i'm super confident in all right it's going to bug me is it is it fizzy ever is it fizzy”
UFC's official Dos Anjos vs Fiziev results record Rafael Fiziev by KO/TKO, confirming the RDA parlay settled lost as recorded. (Rafael Fiziev KO/TKO)
“[10:00] But Tercios was knocked out by Anna Martina shortly before coming to the UFC. [10:04] Zahabi just won his last fight by knockout. [10:06] I think it's kind of a striker versus grappler matchup to a degree. [10:09] But one guy just has all the power and all the stoppage upside. [10:12] And that guy's also about plus 160. [10:14] So, you know, Sean pointed out last week, when you're betting these favorites, [10:17] you want him to have one of grappling or power.”
UFC's official Dos Anjos vs Fiziev results record Aiemann Zahabi as the winner, confirming Aiemann Zahabi ML settled won as recorded. (Aiemann Zahabi decision win)
“So plus 190 is enough for me. [14:07] The plus 170 or so he opened at wasn't, [14:09] but I'm going to sprinkle a little bit on Petrosian.”
UFC's official Dos Anjos vs Fiziev results record Caio Borralho as the winner, confirming Armen Petrosyan ML settled lost as recorded. (Caio Borralho decision win)
“i'm looking at the heavyweight fight between vandera and sherman [16:21] and doing something i almost never do which is betting this one to go to decision at plus 165”
UFC's official Dos Anjos vs Fiziev results record Chase Sherman by KO/TKO, confirming the decision prop settled lost as recorded. (Chase Sherman KO/TKO)
“So at minus 135, I'm pretty confident in Gore.”
UFC's official Dos Anjos vs Fiziev results record Cody Brundage as the winner, confirming Tresean Gore ML settled lost as recorded. (Cody Brundage KO/TKO)
“[21:23] But I see the angle there, too. [21:25] And then the other one I looking at is Kennedy Nuzchekwu versus Karl Roberson And that a light heavyweight matchup Kennedy is huge for the division I think he 6 or 6 with almost an 8 foot or almost 7 foot reach [21:39] He's got 9 inches in reach in Roberson, who's basically a striker. [21:43] Roberson was just knocked out by Khalil Roundtree. [21:46] Neshekwu hasn't really lived up to the expectations a lot of people had for him, [21:50] but I think he's actually in a lot of ways kind of similar to Roundtree, [21:53] but just bigger.”
UFC's official Dos Anjos vs Fiziev results record Kennedy Nzechukwu as the winner, confirming Kennedy Nzechukwu ML settled won as recorded. (Kennedy Nzechukwu KO/TKO)
“[7:23] The reach isn as significant of a disadvantage in this one He got super long arms You know it only a two and a half inch reach disadvantage for him which is closer than a lot of Israel opponents have been And I think he can make this a dirty fight shove him into the cage maybe attempt a takedown or [7:37] two. And then we've got those power optics, just the way fights have been judged lately. [7:41] If you're the only one who looks like you threw a heavy shot, even if it doesn't land clean, [7:44] even if you don't sit the guy down, a lot of times that can steal around. So, you know, [7:48] I'm not saying he deserves to be the favorite or anything like that. And I didn't even like his [7:51] money line odds earlier in the week at about plus 300 but 380 is a pretty good price on that so i'm [7:56] going to take a little bit of a sprinkle on cannoneer just there's enough angles where i”
UFC's official UFC 276 results record Israel Adesanya as the winner, confirming Jared Cannonier ML settled lost as recorded. (Israel Adesanya decision win)
“but you can get Volkanovsky [10:09] and over two and a half at minus 125 and I prefer that versus his uh decision line”
UFC's official UFC 276 results record Alexander Volkanovski by decision, confirming the over settled won as recorded. (Alexander Volkanovski decision win)
“[14:17] and he doesn't have the grappling upside that just goes back to what sean said in the main event [14:21] where you know if you're going to bet a favorite he needs at least one of those two things [14:24] and i'm not seeing it so with gabe green getting the line he is he's a super active striker he's [14:29] fought really tough competition he apparently got laser eye surgery like before his last fight and [14:34] could only see out of one eye very well before that i don't know that's something i heard this [14:37] week no idea how much that matters but he's the more active striker he throws heavier and he has [14:42] most of the grappling upside here so i i really like him at plus 150 even with one eye well he's”
UFC's official UFC 276 results record Ian Garry as the winner, confirming Gabe Green ML settled lost as recorded. (Ian Garry decision win)
“but you can get Jim Miller by knockout at plus 310 on FanDuel, which just seems insane.”
UFC's official UFC 276 results record Jim Miller by submission, confirming Jim Miller by knockout settled lost as recorded. (Jim Miller submission)
“[26:45] Like he was, you know, glory champion, knocked out his in kickboxing. [26:48] And Strickland is mostly known as a striker. [26:51] He's got some grappling upside, but he also just seems like the kind of guy who's more than willing to stand there and trade leather and try to, you know, prove how tough he is against clearly a better opponent in that arena. [27:01] So Alex Pahey had even money. [27:03] I also like Pahey's knockout odds. [27:06] I think Strickland kind of just forces him to be a little bit more aggressive than he was in the last fight. [27:10] But even money, as long as it's still there, I'm taking that.”
UFC's official UFC 276 results record Alex Pereira as the winner, confirming Alex Pereira ML settled won as recorded. (Alex Pereira KO/TKO)
“[27:03] I also like Pahey's knockout odds. [27:06] I think Strickland kind of just forces him to be a little bit more aggressive than he was in the last fight. [27:10] But even money, as long as it's still there, I'm taking that. [27:13] And then the other one, I'm just fading another old guy. [27:15] We got Brian Barbarina fighting Robbie Lawler. [27:17] Robbie is 40. [27:18] The only fight he has won in the last five years was against Nick Diaz who clearly didn want to be there Before that it was Donald Cerrone who also in the twilight of his career You know if these guys are in their primes Robbie obviously just murders Barbarina But Barbarina 33 He on a two win streak”
UFC's official UFC 276 results record Bryan Barberena as the winner, confirming Bryan Barberena ML settled won as recorded. (Bryan Barberena KO/TKO)
“[9:06] after round one, you should be able to get a better price. And then rounds two and three, [9:09] he should win at a much higher clip that he wins around one. So Moises by decision plus 240. [9:14] You could also take a look at the fight to go to a decision at around a pick and price. [9:18] shop those lines as we encourage across the books to get a good underdog price. Billy, [9:24] where did you land? Speaking of line shopping, this is a really good example of one where [9:28] we've seen a lot of movement on this one. And I'm looking at Vanessa Demopolis. [9:32] She was about 230 plus 240 earlier in the week and is down to plus 195 now.”
UFC's official Tsarukyan vs Gamrot results record Vanessa Demopoulos as the winner, confirming Vanessa Demopoulos ML settled won as recorded. (Vanessa Demopoulos decision win)
“[12:16] I love Chris Curtis. [12:18] I've met him a couple times, like really good guy. [12:20] I think he a bit overrated just based on picking up a couple quick knockouts in his UFC debut Where Vieira is just such a high grappler where if he gets a hold of him at all I think he going to dominate on the ground And I wouldn be shocked to see Vieira just pull guard if he really needs to to turn this into a grappling match You know neither guy has great [12:37] cardio. So if you're going to bet either side of it, I don't know why you don't just take the [12:40] inside the distance line. You know, the odds of it going to a decision are just silly at this point. [12:45] So with me being on Vieira, I'll take the plus 170 instead of betting his money line at 110 or 115 [12:50] and wherever it's at.”
UFC's official Tsarukyan vs Gamrot results record Chris Curtis by decision, confirming Rodolfo Vieira inside the distance settled lost as recorded. (Chris Curtis decision win)
“[16:54] prop market yeah i'm looking at Carlos Ulberg versus uh taffon and chuck we to go to a decision [17:00] at plus 152 and a little bit of a sprinkle on and chuck we to win that decision but you know we've [17:06] seen both guys get knocked out in recent fights but olberg in particular was just extremely cautious [17:11] his last time around i think if he's going to fight like that it's just going to be like a you [17:15] know real gentle we're just trying to touch each other up jab and straight match these are both [17:19] guys with real long reaches and olberg usually has the advantage in most of his fights but it's [17:23] even against nunchuck we here i also think nunchuck we has all of the grappling upside i don think he has much but i think he has all of it So if he gets hurt he probably likely especially in this small cage to grab ahold of Olberg shove him against the fence kind of wall install So just given the”
UFC's official Tsarukyan vs Gamrot results record Carlos Ulberg by KO/TKO, confirming the decision prop settled lost as recorded. (Carlos Ulberg KO/TKO)
“[21:30] you might not be in a sports gambling legal state. [21:33] So folks can get in on DFS and then get there, get their fix that way. [21:36] Let's go to best bets for this UFC fight night. It's in Vegas this weekend. [21:42] Billy, we'll start with you. Then we go to Zerillo. Best bets for the weekend. [21:46] Yeah. I'm looking on the prelims where we've got Cody Durden fighting JP [21:49] buys. This line's moved a little bit, [21:51] but you can still get dirt and even money over at bed MGM at least at the time of recording and honestly this is more of a bet of just not thinking J Bias is that good You know he been 0 in the UFC He got knocked out lost a not decision to Montel Jackson”
UFC's official Tsarukyan vs Gamrot results record Cody Durden as the winner, confirming Cody Durden ML settled won as recorded. (Cody Durden KO/TKO)
“Tell me why you're backing Joe Lozon at around plus 145. Yeah, this is honestly, I think, an awesome card for underdogs. When I first looked through it, I wanted to bet most of them. But, you know, Lozon really stands out. It's hard. We got two older guys, both. At the very least, Cerrone is almost certainly washed. Like, you know, he hasn't won a fight in what feels like forever. Lozon hasn't fought in almost three years, and he still has the more recent win of the pair with his last fight coming as a TKO victory. Yeah, I just think, you know, Cerrone is a guy who's always been super reckless, balls to the wall, chin in the ear.”
The cancelled bout confirms the recorded void.
“[12:24] Just out of vicious was a plus 200 underdog roughly against Kay Hanson Now she coming in as a over minus 200 favorite against silva who hasn fought in a couple years in her mid [12:36] expected her to make some improvements coming in off of that long layoff how are you firing at this [12:41] fight from a prop perspective yeah that jesuda vicious line is a good point because we haven't [12:46] really seen k hansen look all that good so i don't think we should stock up jesuda vicious that high [12:51] just because she won a fairly lackluster decision against Kay Hanson. [12:55] You know, like it wasn't some dominant performance. [12:57] But I just think the majority of Silva's win condition is based on a submission here.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“[16:53] of him he's been finished that was daniel rodriguez with a guillotine and nico price knocked him out [16:58] i don't think it's it's easy for a guy like that who almost always has a reach to fight someone [17:03] like holland who is seating six inches too in that department so that's where i see the strikes [17:07] coming in and you touched on the jujitsu i don't necessarily think this one's going to spend a lot [17:12] of time on the mat but holland can pull subs out of anywhere so that's why i'm going with inside the [17:16] distance rather than the knockout odds but i definitely think knockout is the most likely [17:20] condition with holland having much better power you know he really like half a weight class or weight class bigger than means all things considered and just that huge reach advantage and he nine years younger and we all know the stats on older fighters and how well they do So yeah when there about that nine year age gap I mentioned it as much as I can”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“we saw him against blood diamond you know sprinting around after him and looking really explosive while he tried to chase him and get a hold of him to bring him to the ground but he's also just a finisher you know he's finished both of his ufc fights he's 35 so it's weird to call him a prospect but he only has two ufc fights and i think he's on the upswing where a guy like mcgee who's been around for a while he's 37 had a three fight losing streak before his last two wins which were both decisions that's not a fighter i'm looking at as a favorite and we've seen this line move to make wells a little bit of an underdog here so i think you can get him at plus 105 plus 110, depending on the book.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“so we're just getting a little better price on that than on some of the unders and stuff like that. But I'm with Sean. I see this fight going out exactly the way he did. Honestly, my favorite bet, if you will, of this is the prize picks line you can get glover under one and a half takedowns that's what they've got it set right now and sean laid out exactly why i think that's a good bet i don't think geary gets back up if he does get taken down and into a bad position so there's just a lot of ways that once go right in terms of year getting a quick knockout or once glover gets on top of him then it looks like you know submission is probably pretty eminent”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“Billy, favorite dog? Yeah, I'm going a little bit longer odds with this one that I'm super comfortable with, but Jacob Malkoun is all the way up to plus 250 on DraftKings. and he's fighting Brendan Allen who one hasn't super impressed me lately but Allen is mostly a submission guy who doesn't really have great takedown defense we saw Malcoon in his last fight attempt like 11 or 12 takedowns just kind of relentlessly pursue it so it really feels like a fairly clear path to a Malcoon victory here he just needs to continue to get those takedowns do enough damage on the ground and stay out of the submissions”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“It didn't really matter who it was. So Joanna plus 145 is a bet for me. But I'm also going to take the fight to go to a decision. Minus 200 win. I projected this closer to minus 260. so I have bets both on the fight to go the distance and on Joanna's money line you could just bet her decision prop as well around plus 200 I see value on that as well but I'm going to split my wagers hope for a push at worst and maybe we cash both of them all right Billy fight of the night uh kind of laid it out for you there and and Zerillo did a good job recapping uh how do you go about looking at this fight yeah Sean made a ton of similar points to what I was looking at like I'm really glad he brought up where the scorecards were after three rounds I think the public consensus is that Ioana has better cardio. So therefore three round fight actually shifts it towards Dang but you know she has the team behind her She training ATT I think they going to recognize that and say Hey it only three rounds You can turn up the volume You can push the pace a little bit more here And some of that power and damage optics maybe those don look so bad after three rounds You know, the Hima tomato on her forehead was about third the size after three rounds as it was by the end of the night. So does that, you know, work in her favor too? The only thing that gives me a little pause is just the two-year layoff. But in those two years, Zhang has been knocked out by Rose Namajunas and then lost another fight to Rose Namajunas. So it doesn't really look like we're seeing Zhang having improved in that time span where Joanna very well could have. She could have taken those two years, got with a good team, really plugged up some holes in her game. So I think plus one to 45 is the best you can get on her. And I'm all over that on this one.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“[18:16] all right billy you've worked at the you've looked at the prop market here and you've done [18:21] some surfing what do you have yeah i wish i would have looked at the prop market a little harder [18:25] before i gave out malcoon straight up as soon as i saw the email from sean i was like yeah no that [18:30] makes a lot more sense that's a great line on that one but uh i'm looking at i believe it's the [18:34] opener between no second fight between nali and sylvana gomez suarez you can get that one at plus [18:40] 200 to go the distance and this is 115 pound female fight like i really just don't understand [18:45] in this line at all.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“All right. And speaking of dogs and getting some plus money, we've done that quite a bit on this episode today on the Action Network podcast UFC 275 Billy you got some plus money for your best bet Yeah just slightly here I looking at Jake Matthews at plus 125 He fighting Andrea Fialo And Fialo this is his fourth fight already in 2022”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“see a lot of the sloppy heavyweight fights as you've dubbed it, but these guys both have fairly good cardio you know we saw Rosenstreich pick up a fifth round knockout and not even fifth round it was like four seconds left in the fight against Overeem he's going to be throwing bombs the whole time he's finished all of his UFC wins so it is very binary like you said but I think the extra distance or the extra time with this being five rounds actually helps Rosenstreich so betting him by TKO at plus 210 or inside the distance at plus 190 is my favorite I'm totally okay with hedging that off with a Bolkov decision”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“So definitely view it as a coin flip fight willing to take the plus money side on a guy who I think has a clear edge in one of the aspects of MMA Billy where are you going for your best dog bet Yeah, I like yours. I have a bet out there early. It does seem that the line is moving a little bit. So anyone listening to this who wants to get on the De Silva side, I think that's probably going to finish closer to plus 140, plus 135 by the time the fights kick off. So get on that one now. But I'm looking at Carolina Kolek-Wix. I'm struggling with that one. Sorry, guys. Kovalkiewicz, it's okay. It's a tough... The Polish names, man. Volhovich, Kovalkiewicz, I struggle with them as well. Well, she also hasn't fought in a little bit, so we're out of mind. But she is fighting Felice Herrig, and I can't believe this is the featured prelim. They're, I think, 0 for their last eight collectively between the two of them, which just, I don't know why we're doing this. But Kovalkiewicz is actually the slight underdog here, but this is a rematch between her and Herrig. and Kovalkiewicz won a fairly close split decision but if you just look at the historical data and rematches the younger fighter tends to do better she's a little over a year younger and the fighter who won the previous fight tends to have an edge and she's the winner of the previous one so when you can get her at plus 105 or plus 100 depending on what book you're looking at both of those things both of those trends even consider the betting odds too it's not just straight up so it's pretty much just a math and trends play for me”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“there's YouTube, you know, it's hard to do, but you touched on it a little bit with the drastic line movement. And I got to say, I'm going to be on Moser off here. You know, I thought the initial line that came out on him was about right. Just looking at his past handful of fights. Right. And we're looking back at some of these losses that have been added. He said he was throwing fights for money or he wasn't sure that they were professional fights or he, you know, didn't really understand. Even if that wasn't the case, he was like barely 18 when he turned pro. So I really don't want to judge a 27 28 year old athlete in the prime of his career versus getting beat up as a 27 year old or as a 18 year old and we haven't seen him lose in like almost three years at this point he's looked really really good with the striking and all the tape i saw i was really impressed with his kicks and he's the taller longer fighter than men of field which i think should be able to keep him away i'm not super impressed with men of fields wrestling ever you know he he did it to ed herman who's a million years old and probably too small for the division he tapped out Fabio Chiron who's never won a UFC fight and has also looked lost on the ground I don't think we know that Mennefield can actually make this a ground fight so for all of that that's why I had the initial line is about right you know he's got a puncher's chance plus you would think Mosherov might have the cardio advantage just with Mennefield being so like big and thick and burning out so much we haven't really seen it in a long time so it's hard to say for sure but now that you're seeing him as high as plus 210 on Caesars I can't I can't not bet that at this point.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“Yeah I actually have Silva coming up later on that I going to talk about her and we fairly in agreement on that one But speaking of 100 finish rate I looking at UFC debut fighter Lucas Almeida He fighting on the main card against Mike Trezano And he also has 100 finish rate coming into this one His only loss was on the contender series bout against Daniel Zell Huber who I think we saw a couple weeks ago if I remember correctly, Zell Huber. But Almeida almost had him finished at multiple points in this one. Kind of ran out of steam. Both guys were thrown super heavy. And I think Zell Huber might be a significantly better fighter than Mike Trezano, who is fighting now. Trezano is one and two, three and two, something like that in the UFC. lost by submission in one of his last three but I think Almeida is just going to be hunting finishes real hard you can get his inside the distance at plus 450 and I'm even looking at his round one line at plus 950 you know he came out extremely hard kind of ran out of steam as the fight went on not horribly but wasn't you know keeping the pace he was and I think he was very unlucky to not put Zell Huber away and he might have easier time with Almeida in the first round now on to sleeper sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions of players”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“bit early in the week But yeah I pretty much in agreement with you And my best bet is Karin who you referenced earlier with your inside the distance I playing her straight up and I not going to go through the whole breakdown because you did a great job on that But the one thing that scares me with her is I don't want to say she has bad takedown defense, but she's more than willing to accept takedowns. And we've seen with judges recently that they're not really punishing you for just being on your back or being controlled. And I think that's the worst thing that happens to her. I think she's really got a real strong guard. She's fine off her back. but with that said if she's accepting a lot of takedowns from Botello it's going to be harder for her to find the finish than if she's really fighting him off and looking to strike and looking to attack aggressively on her side and I think Botello's got good enough jiu-jitsu that she can probably survive Silva's guard throughout the course of this one I don't think she'll be winning when it's on the ground but I think she'll survive and just with her I think you can get as good as minus 115 on Silva I'm willing to just take the decision chances there especially given how we see women's fights generally go.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“Favorite prop, Billy, what do you like? Yeah, I hate to do this to Sean, because this is like his favorite, most exciting fight ever, but I'm actually looking at the Parker Porter versus Jailton Almeida fight. So for everyone who's not aware, not been following Almeida was originally set to fight Max Grisham at 205 on this card. Something happened with Grisham. He dropped out. Almeida is this extremely shredded Jack 205 or stepping up to fight the biggest, sloppiest heavyweight in the UFC and Parker Porter. So, you know, Almeida is a huge favorite. He's expected to just run right through him. But if he comes in looking kind of heavy or looking kind of sloppy himself, I could see this turning into a sloppy heavyweight fight like we talked about. You know, we saw with William Knight when he came in at heavyweight and was about 30 pounds over his usual fighting weight. It's hard to keep the cardio up when all of a sudden you weigh 30 pounds more than you're used to weighing, right? So that makes it a lot harder if he doesn't get him out of there right away. And you can get this one to go to the distance at plus 300 on FanDuel. I think that's a really, really good bet. I could see Porter also just kind of hanging on as long”
UFC's official Holm vs Vieira results record Jailton Almeida by submission, confirming the decision prop settled lost as recorded. (Jailton Almeida submission)
“But speaking of good nicknames, I'm looking at Tabitha Baby Shark Ricci. I think the best line right now is minus 130.”
UFC's official Holm vs Vieira results record Tabatha Ricci as the winner, confirming Tabatha Ricci ML settled won as recorded. (Tabatha Ricci decision win)
“And I also like this bet to end by, or this fight to end by submission at plus 200.”
UFC's official Holm vs Vieira results record Tabatha Ricci by decision, confirming the submission prop settled lost as recorded. (Tabatha Ricci decision win)
“I'm seeing plus 170 at DraftKings.”
UFC's official Blachowicz vs Rakic results record Jan Blachowicz as the winner, confirming Blachowicz ML settled won as recorded. (Jan Blachowicz TKO)
“We obviously don't know that and that's why we're getting the price we are on blachowicz but i'm willing to take that chance and then like sean said i do think there's a much better chance this goes to decision than the markets are giving it so i'm going to sprinkle a little bit on yan by decision at plus 400 with the best line also coming in draft kings any thoughts on that sean yeah i project pretty much”
UFC's official Blachowicz vs Rakic results record a Rakic injury stoppage, confirming Blachowicz by decision settled lost as recorded. (Jan Blachowicz TKO)
“with Sean on that. And my favorite underdog is also a UFC veteran against a Contender Series debutant. So I'm looking at Alan Nassimento against Jake Hadley. And Hadley actually looked fairly good in his Contender Series bout, but there were just some flaws I saw. He was able to get hit way too many times. He was the taller fighter in that fight, but won't be against Nassimento. And I think Nassimento, who trains with Oliveira and the Shooter Box guys, is probably going to have the Muay Thai to piece him up on the feet. And then Hadley was just really willing to accept the takedown and work off his back. He looked pretty dangerous off his back, but against a guy like Nassimanto, who I believe is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, I don't think that holds up as well. So I think that's a dangerous game to play if Nassimanto wants to force the grappling. And I also think he has the striking advantage. Hadley might be the better wrestler, but if he's just going to accept takedowns and try to play from his guard, that's not really a good way to win rounds, especially. And then he needs to find the submission, which is tough against the black belt. So you can get Nassimento as high as plus 188 on FanDuel. And then again, on top of all that, just everything Sean's saying, we've got a UFC veteran, albeit only one fight, taking on a guy fresh off the Contender Series. I usually look to fade those Contender Series guys as well. And it's not even the fact that he only has one”
UFC's official Blachowicz vs Rakic results record Allan Nascimento as the winner, confirming Allan Nascimento ML settled won as recorded. (Allan Nascimento decision win)
“yeah i'm getting way off the board here on this one but this is supposed to be the long shot prop segment so everybody bear with me that's right uh i'm targeting the verma jander oba versus angela hill fight and you can get this fight to end by split or i'm sorry jander oba to win by split or majority decision at plus 800 on DraftKings. But I'm just seeing a stylistic thing here that I think can be tricky for judges, where Angela Hill throws a ton of volume and Verma usually gets outstruck. If you look at her UFC stats, she takes more than she gives. But Verma also usually gets a takedown after three, four, a bunch of attempts. So this is going to be really hard for judges. So am I going to give the round to the girl who landed more strikes, even though she got taken down at the end? Or am I going to give it to the person who got the takedown, but it took three or four attempts and her opponent was defending it. And judges really aren't great at weighing that grappling versus striking thing because it's hard. There's no good way to quantify how many strikes a takedown is worth or whatever. So I really think this is one that has a better than usual chance ending that way. I like Janderoba just with the grappling upside where I think judges tend to err a little bit on the side of the takedown, though they've gotten much better at that in recent years. But you can also just get the fight to go to splitter majority at plus 425. Angela Hill has, I think gone to a split decision in three of her last five fights. This is just a common thing with her and a lot of female fights where they're not doing a ton of damage, but my money's on Janderoba, but I like both of those bets at fairly long odds.”
UFC's official Blachowicz vs Rakic results record Virna Jandiroba by unanimous decision, confirming the split-or-majority prop settled lost as recorded. (Virna Jandiroba unanimous decision)
“All right, Billy, take us home. What do you got? Best bet. Yeah. As to Sean's point real quick, this seems like a fight. That fight seems like whoever shoots first is going to win that round because both guys are just so happy to fall to their back and play guard. And when you have two guys who are both really good grapplers, I don't think that's a good strategy, but we'll probably see it. But no, I'm looking at the Amanda Hebes money line. You know, I mentioned her in the DFS section. You can get her as high as plus 160 on Caesars. And I think she just throws so many more punches than Chikugian, where if it doesn't look like either of them are landing a lot of damage, that looks really good to the judges when you're landing more. We've seen this come up in recent fights. Arlovsky versus Collier was a big one where a lot of people were upset at the decision. But if it doesn't look like either fighter is hurting the other one, it's really hard for judges to go by anything based on the total amount. And I also think Hebas is the better grappler. I hope she's able to get inside the much longer reach and get a takedown. She's got a little bit of submission upside, but I think she probably takes it on volume if it stays standing for most of the time. And as long as she can mix in a takedown or two, I think at plus 160, that's a pretty good price on her.”
UFC's official Blachowicz vs Rakic results record Katlyn Chookagian as the winner, confirming Amanda Ribas ML settled lost as recorded. (Katlyn Chookagian decision win)
“your action started early, Journey Newson at plus 125 is not a bad bet. Billy, I have some prop ways that I'm playing your favorite underdog on the card, but tell me why you like Joe Lozon to upset Donald Cerrone. Well, real quick before we get there, if anyone's looking to bet Newsom sooner rather than later, because that line has already moved from 135 to 125 in his favor, and you might be right in that it closes closer to a pick-em. So if anyone wants plus money on that, now is the time. But yeah, I'm looking at Joe Lozon. Kind of makes me sad. I'm a big Cerrone fan. This is a really tough fight to handicap because Lozon hasn't fought in two and a half years and Donald Cerrone actually hasn't won a fight in the whole time that Lozon's been off but we're really just looking at who is who still has anything left in the tank and I give the edge to Lozon he's about two years younger a year and a half younger he's had about 10 total fights and he hasn't taken the bad recent knockouts that Cerrone has that two and a half years off might actually work in his favor because he was knocked out I think in three two of the three losses he had before his last win but Cerrone just keeps getting knockout keeps getting you know bad finishes, keeps taking damage. And pushing 40 years old, that's not a fighter I want to bet on. So I would take Lowe's on it closer to even money here, but probably I'd take him down to about plus 110 or 120. I think you can still get some 150s or 145s out there. That's more than enough for me. Really, anything can happen in this fight between two older legends that probably aren't as durable as they once were, but I'll take the guys that a couple years off and been a little bit more durable in recent memory. Stroni knocked out by Alex Morono almost exactly a year ago, and that's bad look. Morona, not a power puncher, more of a point fighter. For that, didn't get knocked out by Nico Price, but took a ton of damage in that fight. I believe there was a 10-8 round in there, or I think that was a draw to a point deduction, but either way, a ton of damage in that fight, and then before that, knocked out in three of his five losses. I don't know if he's won a round in the UFC since beating Al Iaquinta in 2019, so it's been a while for Donald Cerrone since he's looked like the best version of himself. I'm on Lozen small, but as I mentioned, there are a couple props that I prefer on that fight on the Lowe's inside. So I only bet the Moneyline enough to cover those props.”
UFC’s official UFC 274 results confirm Joe Lozon ML settled void as recorded.
“Okay, let's talk about our favorite prop bets. We actually have a fight that we have altering or differing props on, which I think is cool because this would have been potentially our fight of the night had we not wanted to talk about Chandler and Ferguson. Randy Rudeboy Brown versus Chaos Williams. Chaos, an absolute knockout artist. Tell me why you think he's getting a knockout over Randy Brown tomorrow night. Yeah, I mean, you said it best. He's a total knockout artist. All of his UFC wins have been knockouts except against Semelsberger. And we've kind of seen Semelsberger look pretty indestructible. He's taken some big shots and just walked through them. So I'm not going to hold that one against Chaos. You know, his knockdown rate is nearly three times the UFC average. And Brown is a longer, taller fighter, but Chaos has crazy reach for his height. He only is actually an inch shorter in terms of reach than Rude Boy. So I don't see how he has a hard time getting inside on him. You know, he can cover that distance pretty quick. Super explosive, super athletic. So if he's going to win this one, I think it's a knockout. And you can get that at plus 190 instead of laying like minus 115 or minus 120, whatever his money line spots are. I don't see him winning minutes or winning rounds, especially with the grappling disadvantage he probably has. So if you're going to bet on chaos and you think he's going to win it, you might as well get the plus money on the knockout instead of betting his money line.”
UFC’s official UFC 274 results confirm Chaos Williams by KO settled lost as recorded.
“only bet that i'm going to be making i'm going to be betting vera inside the distance at plus 300”
UFC’s official Font vs Vera results confirm Marlon Vera inside the distance settled lost as recorded.
“I like Gordon at plus 160 and then a possible live betting opportunity if he gets taken down early on.”
UFC’s official Font vs Vera results confirm Jared Gordon ML settled lost as recorded.
“to plus 150 billy favorite prop yeah i'm looking at johan lioness versus gabe green by knockout he's about plus 200 but i think it should the vast majority of his win condition.”
UFC’s official Font vs Vera results confirm Johan Lainesse by KO settled lost as recorded.
“Billy, Sean said it. It's the same bet. You're looking at the same fight, but are you going to bet it a little differently? No, we're lockstep on this one. The one point I wanted to add is I think Elkins, probably his best hope is to get on top and win this fight through control time. But Connelly defended four or five takedowns against Pat Sabatini in his last fight. And Sabatini is a very, very strong wrestler. So I don't really see Elkins doing much better than Sabatini did against him. And then as long as it stays standing, I'm all over Connelly.”
UFC’s official Font vs Vera results confirm Tristan Connelly ML settled lost as recorded.
“I played the Andrade Moneyline.”
UFC’s official Lemos vs Andrade results confirm Jessica Andrade ML settled won as recorded.
“So at almost two to one, I'm taking Cameron Ellis.”
UFC’s official Lemos vs Andrade results confirm Cameron Else ML settled lost as recorded.
“They are eyeing Mark Andre Barrio versus Jordan Wright? You got Barrio, the Canadian taking on Jordan Wright? Who's from the States, Billy, why does this fight stand out to you? And what's the play? Yeah, this one's just definitely going to be a standup banger. Neither guy really has a ton of interest in takedowns. My favorite stat to that regard is Jordan Wright in particular has twice as many knockdowns as takedowns even attempted in the UFC. So that shows you what kind of fight it's going to be. You know, both guys are willing to come forward. Both guys are willing to trade punches and potentially get knocked out. So with that, you know, anytime you have fights like that, it should really be close to a pick-em. Both guys are swinging. These are 185, correct? No, they moved up to 190. Oh, yes. Catch weight. Catch weight. which honestly helps the knockout rate even more but when you have two guys either one of them can knock each other out i don't really see one guy as a significant favorite or underdog so i'm betting Jordan Wright by knockout he's as high as plus 400 about rivers right now i'm pretty confident one of these guys is going to get knocked out when you're getting four to one odds on one versus the other that's too good to pass up”
UFC’s official Lemos vs Andrade results confirm Jordan Wright by KO settled lost as recorded.
“So 550 on the submission line for Barry seems awfully long. [20:28] that's over at FanDuel.”
UFC’s official Lemos vs Andrade results confirm Dean Barry by submission settled lost as recorded.
“UFC Fight Night 205, Billy, best bet. We talked about you know age versus mileage He got both He 40 and has well over 50 professional fights I just it really hard to click that button even though I do think you probably right As I referenced before I coming back to the Dean Barry fight I kind of surprised some of the secondary lines on this fight I thought you know everyone would have him as just an absolute smash but you can get Barry to win in round one at plus 130 on DraftKings I think it probably that should be favored but there a ton of different bets along those lines that you can do I would take the under one and a half. I like Barry inside the distance at minus 225 or so. Minus 200 is the better line. And then if you want to lay minus 1,000, I think it's the best Barry line right now. That's probably a good bet, too. He should be about minus 10,000, I think. So all of those bets based on Mike Jackson just being terrible and having no business being here are in play. But my favorite is the round one line at plus 130.”
UFC’s official Lemos vs Andrade results confirm Dean Barry to win in round 1 settled lost as recorded.
“[5:53] submissions when it does get to the ground. So Luque can win a decision a lot more easily than [5:59] Muhammad can win a finish. So just with both of that, I'm comfortable laying the minus 170 or so [6:04] on Luque. But my absolute favorite bet is it to go the distance at plus 110. I like Muhammad's [6:08] defense. I think as he gets hurt, he'll be able to latch on, slow things down, still lose the round, [6:13] but save himself from getting knocked out. So I think that you can get as high as almost plus 120, [6:18] depending on what book I wrote down plus 110 earlier. But yeah, the fight to go to the distance [6:23] is my favorite of those just because I can see Luque winning that way, but I can't really see”
Official UFC results show Muhammad-Luque went to a five-round decision.
“[8:55] to point out, I think he's got like a four or four and a half inch reach advantage, which isn't as [8:59] big of a deal in the small cage at the apex, but still it makes it hard. If you know, we're going [9:03] to have to shoot in from a long distance and you're contending with that much of a reach [9:07] discrepancy, he could get clipped on the way in and put out. So I'm not so much on the goes to a [9:12] decision. I think both guys are looking for a finish pretty hard, but God's, you have the one [9:16] thing that bothered me a little bit about him and his contender series fight is he had top position [9:20] and rolled for a knee bar, which is super high risk.”
Official UFC results confirm Borralho defeated Omargadzhiev.
“[10:28] out, but he competes in some high-level grappling stuff. Clark has, I think, two submission losses [10:34] in his last five fights. You know, Clark is willing to force the grappling, but I don't know [10:38] that that's a good idea against Knight, and then the power discrepancy is just so huge. Clark has [10:42] below average knockdown rate for, like, any fighter, but then when you look at, you know, [10:46] stepping up against a really big, strong guy who is looking to take your head off, this just strikes [10:51] me as a fight where Clark has to win 15 minutes, and Knight has to win half of a second with a [10:55] punch or submission. So at plus 150 or so, I'm willing to take those odds. Curious to see where”
Official UFC results confirm Devin Clark defeated William Knight.
“[13:42] to win this fight 100% of the time. I'm sure you have worked with guys who sort of view everything [13:46] through that lens where they think they could beat anybody in the world, even though they have [13:49] obvious limitations. Isn't it cool that to see a fighter just being so reasonable about his chances [13:56] in a matchup? Yeah, you have to love that. I do have to point out, though, he seems to never [14:01] handicap himself as an underdog. He's never going to come out there and say 49 percent, [14:05] anything lower than that. So we do have to take it with a grain of salt. Like, [14:09] you know, this is still a guy whose ego is on the line and, you know, cares what he's doing.”
Official UFC results confirm Jordan Leavitt defeated Trey Ogden.
“But I'm looking at Miguel Baeza by knockout. I'm seeing it as high as plus 180.”
Official UFC results confirm Fialho defeated Baeza by TKO.
“[24:54] So I going with Miguel Baeza I probably lay that up to minus 200 projected it at minus 215 Billy I gave out the over two or the over one and a half I should say in Barnett and Budai [25:08] I also said the fight to go the distance. [25:09] I prefer the over one and a half. [25:11] So for my sake, given your best bet, I'm hoping maybe a knockout comes in round two or round three. [25:17] What do you got here? [25:18] Yeah, I really like the symmetry of how this played out here because I'm on Martin Buday by knockout. [25:24] minus 115. I just don't want to lay the juice on that. But to your point with Baeza in the grappling”
Official UFC results record Buday's win as a technical decision, not a knockout.
“[6:14] He was finished by Yair Rodriguez and Jose Aldo, [6:17] both somewhat late in the fight. [6:19] I see Volkanovski doing a similar thing. [6:21] The leg kicks add up over time, just as Sean put it, the attritional stoppage. [6:25] So that I think is 150 right now for Volk inside the distance. [6:28] That's the only bet I'm comfortable making on this one. [6:31] The only other angle I have is if Jung looks really good early and we get a little bit better of a live line on Volkanovski, I might be hitting that too.”
Official UFC results record Volkanovski's victory over Jung by fourth-round TKO.
“but i'm looking at josh friend [15:25] he's a ufc newcomer coming in at plus 170 against anthony hernandez”
Official UFC results confirm Hernandez defeated Fremd.
“[20:17] real test here. And I think he's going to pass it. What do you think, Billy? What's the best way [20:21] to go about Hamzat versus Burns? Yeah. So what I'm saying here is it's just a giant step up for [20:27] Kamzat. You know, Sean mentioned Li Jingling, who's a solid fighter, but like if it weren't [20:32] for Kamaru Usman, Gilbert Burns very well could still be the welterweight champion right now. [20:36] You know, like I'd love to see Burns versus Colby and we could really decide that. But [20:39] yeah, so what I think is that Burns is able to survive at least through the first round. I'm [20:45] looking to bet the fight to start round two at minus 175. I could also see Kamzat looking at”
Official UFC results show Chimaev-Burns completed three rounds.
“[20:39] yeah, so what I think is that Burns is able to survive at least through the first round. I'm [20:45] looking to bet the fight to start round two at minus 175. I could also see Kamzat looking at [20:50] this as an opportunity to get some more cage time, to show that he can win minutes, to show that he [20:53] can win striking exchanges. I don't think he just mauls them in 12 seconds or whatever like we've [20:58] seen him do before. I see a lot of dirty boxing happening in this one. If I was Comzat, I'd be [21:02] looking to keep him against the fence, keep him there, which might make it a little bit more [21:05] boring of a fight than people are expecting just because if he's trying to grind him out and just”
UFC Stats records two Chimaev takedowns, exactly matching the two-point line. (Chimaev 2 takedowns)
“I think this one gets stopped, and I think Santos is the winner. [23:03] So plus 430, I'm definitely taking that one.”
Official UFC results confirm Arce defeated Santos by decision.
“[31:32] but I think he's going to beat Vince Pichelle level guys with just being [31:35] super awesome at one thing. And we're getting him at plus money. [31:37] It's dropped a little bit throughout the week, [31:39] but I think you can still get plus one 15. So yeah, [31:42] that one seems pretty straightforward to me at plus money.”
Official UFC results confirm Madsen defeated Pichel.
“[6:13] you know if blades can't put them away when they're on the ground that's a lot of time to be [6:16] rolling around with the jujitsu black belt and he's a top end jujitsu black belt not all those [6:20] guys are created equal but the darkest brothers are near the higher end of that as far as mma guys [6:25] go so i'm looking at plus 350 on the money line and then the sub is plus 1600 so you know little [6:31] sprinkle on that as well one thing i want to add in his last fight against jairzinho rosen strike [6:36] after getting knocked up by lewis blades looked really tentative he looked kind of scared to get [6:40] hit he did get hit in the eye his eyes swelled up a little bit he's closing his eyes as he was”
Official UFC results confirm Blaydes defeated Daukaus.
“So I [9:30] like Kerafrance at plus 300.”
Official UFC results confirm Kai Kara-France defeated Askarov.
“And I also like him to win by knockout at 800.”
Official UFC results record Kara-France-Askarov as a decision, not a knockout.
“Yeah, I'm looking at Ilir Latifi by knockout at plus 180.”
Official UFC event records show Latifi-Oleinik was not contested.
“[19:33] to 70%, around minus 220, so just under 70%. So Barbarina minus 108 at FanDuel, fight to end [19:39] inside the distance minus 186 at fan duel like that fight pretty much as much as the gutierrez [19:46] or the blights fights this weekend and billy ward your best bet for the weekend yeah before i totally [19:52] disagree with sean on my best bet i gotta say i'm on the same side on the uh brian barbarena i [19:56] could have sworn at brown retired like five six years ago and [20:00] You came back. Yeah. Yeah. And every time I see him fight, I go, this is the last time we're seeing Matt Brown in the octagon. And then he gets booked for another one. I have no idea how he's still doing it. But anyway, yeah, I'm going with Batchelor Dana or Dana Batchelor. They seem to have switched his first and last names lately. I get where Sean's coming from on the Gutierrez angle. I do. I just think Batchelor's volume and his kind of overwhelming style. One plays really well to the judges if it goes that far. But two, he's going to catch him at some point. [20:27] I just think he's going to land something to the head where Gutierrez is going to live off leg kicks.”
Official UFC results confirm Gutierrez defeated Batgerel.
“[6:19] gets underway on saturday let's move to our favorite underdogs billy we'll go to you first [6:25] on your favorite dog for the card yeah my favorite dog is definitely paul craig i think he's up to [6:32] plus 165 some places you can see him um he's got great submissions obviously we saw him break [6:38] jamal hill's arm it was ruled a knockout but it was really a submission he broke his arm and then [6:42] beat him up but uh he's very aggressive hunting takedowns he attempts over two per round and as we [6:48] saw against hill if he can't force a takedown he'll just pull you down into guard so he's going [6:52] to make this a ground fight one way or the other which i think is a huge advantage to him i think [6:58] he probably gets a takedown krylov's takedown defense is only 55 percent average in the ufc [7:02] is about 70 percent and krylov's also a long skinny guy guys like that they've got more limb [7:08] to try to attack with submissions i think that makes it even easier for craig once it does get [7:12] to the ground. So I really like his money line at where it's at right now. [7:15] I'm also going to sprinkle a little bit on his submission at plus four 50. [7:18] You know, [7:19] hopefully we don't see something like against Hill where he gets a submission [7:22] and then beats him up, [7:23] but four 50 is pretty long odds for a guy who wins almost everything by sub And Sean you have you have similar thoughts to Billy on this Yeah Paul Craig the one underdog money line where I showing value for tomorrow [7:35] projected him closer to plus 145. [7:37] So I do think there's value on his side. [7:39] That said, there is a better way to play him [7:42] to win this fight, in my opinion. [7:43] So we'll touch on that in the prop section coming up next. [7:46] The two big underdogs I did look at on this card, [7:48] Shamil Abdurakamov and Kazul Vargas, [7:51] considered making both of those plays, [7:53] but ultimately had to pass. [7:55] So wanted to get dipped my toes into the underdog waters this card, but didn't find any that were really enticing to me. [8:01] Paul Craig unbeaten in his last five fights. [8:05] And as Billy mentioned, you can get him over on DraftKings at plus 165.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“gets underway on saturday let's move to our favorite underdogs billy we'll go to you first on your favorite dog for the card yeah my favorite dog is definitely paul craig i think he's up to plus 165 some places you can see him um he's got great submissions obviously we saw him break jamal hill's arm it was ruled a knockout but it was really a submission he broke his arm and then beat him up but uh he's very aggressive hunting takedowns he attempts over two per round and as we saw against hill if he can't force a takedown he'll just pull you down into guard so he's going to make this a ground fight one way or the other which i think is a huge advantage to him i think he probably gets a takedown krylov's takedown defense is only 55 percent average in the ufc is about 70 percent and krylov's also a long skinny guy guys like that they've got more limb to try to attack with submissions i think that makes it even easier for craig once it does get to the ground. So I really like his money line at where it's at right now. I'm also going to sprinkle a little bit on his submission at plus four 50. You know, hopefully we don't see something like against Hill where he gets a submission and then beats him up, but four 50 is pretty long odds for a guy who wins almost everything by sub And Sean you have you have similar thoughts to Billy on this Yeah Paul Craig the one underdog money line where I showing value for tomorrow”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“And Billy, best bet. Yeah, I mentioned him with the DFS, but I'm on Jack Shore's money line. He's about even money. I also like him inside the distance at plus 450. He's fighting Team Ravaleev, who if you look up his record, it shows that he's undefeated”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“I also like him inside the distance at plus 450.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“Billy, underdog bet, your favorite. Yeah, I'm going with Alex Caceres. I think the best line you can get right now is plus 215. He's fighting Sadiq Youssef. And what's looking like it should be a primarily stand-up fight. Yusuf's only attempted like just under half of a takedown per round in his UFC career. But Caceres has some sneaky grappling.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“billy where are we looking on the prop market just to uh add into what sean says i was looking it up real quick while you're talking zero knockdowns between either of those two in their ufc careers so if it's going to be a stoppage it's going to be a submission so cosine on that one but just wanted to throw that little nugget on there but yeah on my side i really like dalcha Lungy Mbola to finish inside the distance. I saw this at plus 150 yesterday. Line was moving, so you might not be able to quite get that. He's fighting Cody Brundridge, who was knocked out in his contender series fight by William Knight, who's looked really good since then. And then he lost a decision to Nick Maximoff, who doesn't really try to finish anyone, so I don't think we worry about him surviving that one. Lungy Mbola has two UFC wins. One was a KO. But the thing I'm really looking at, he's four inches shorter, but has a four-inch reach advantage. And that's super advantageous for mma because you can carry more power but still get the benefits of being the taller guy so he's not weighed down by the extra torso weight so he can make a lower weight class but then also just be able to hit from that much farther and then also as a judo background so if runger tries to make it a grappling match he can find a submission in there too the knockout prop is plus 180 but I rather just play inside the distance of plus 150 just on the odds of those submissions All right. Very nice. That should be a good fight.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“All right. I think, Billy, you're going to go to the prelims as well. Yeah. You know, Sean stole my thunder a little bit earlier on this one, but I sent the email first, so I'm still rolling with it. And by the way, that is how it works. You know, whoever gets to the email first, they get first dibs. That's just how it goes. My segment just came first. That's how I was able to one up you. That's true. I should have switched the segment order when I did that. But no, I'm also going with AJ Fletcher. Sean pointed out you can still get him at plus 180. I got him at plus 200 earlier in the week. Again, that's a very good sign that we're in the right direction. The only thing I wanted to add on is Sean said he was, you know,”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“Billy, how about yourself? Your favorite underdog bet for the weekend. Yeah, I'm going with Mikael Olashashok against Dustin Jacoby. I think he's 170 now. He was 180 when I first looked at this one, which means we're on the right side of it. But Jacoby is the more decorated striker. He's got kickboxing and boxing experience. but Ola Shayshock just has a lot more power so when we got two guys who are mostly going to stand and trade the guy with the power he only has to win for about two seconds the fight he lands that shot he wins it's over Jacoby has to win the whole fight he has to continue to win because if he gets his lights put out it doesn't matter how good he looked before that and then additionally both of Ola Shayshock's UFC losses are by submission and Jacoby doesn't really have a lot of interest to making it a grappling match so I'm not so worried about that I think you know if there is any grappling, Ola Shayshock probably has a slight advantage. I don't know that we see that. For those of us betting on him, I'm hoping we get some grappling there. And then obviously that also makes Ola Shayshock a great DFS play. I think he's 7,600. So if he can get a knockout for that, we're going to want to have exposure to him there too. Yeah, I bet he's inside the distance odds at plus 300. I think that's a solid prop too. It just probably ties up most of his win condition. He's 4-0, I believe, on decisions for his career. But if he's landing, I think he's a good chance of putting Jacoby down and he's very good at finding the chin of the pocket. Yeah. I'm really hoping we get a little bit of grappling out of him just to make him steal a round or two there. You know, he could get, he could get touched a lot more, but then if he gets a takedown at the end, a lot of times the judges look favorably on that. So I'm hoping it's not just stand up, but I'm with you if it is. Oh, and shake off by the way is like you said,”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“We have Bryce Mitchell at minus 165. Those are the lines brought to you by BetMGM. Taking on Edson Barboza. He is at plus 135. First off, Sean, why is this a fight? And Billy, please, you as well. Why is this a fight that stands out to each of you that you'd like to highlight this week? It's, of course, not the main event, but it's a fight that each of you are particularly passionate about. Yeah, I think the stylistic nature of it is so polarizing. Mitchell, a very strong grappler, tons of top pressure. We haven really seen Barbosa face a non in a while Barbosa by far the better kickboxer one of the best in the sport Very dangerous And I think he can even catch Mitchell coming in Mitchell goes to shoot for a single leg Barbosa lifts the knee. He can catch him under the chin. Barbosa has multiple ways of winning this fight. Mitchell, I believe, unless he gets a quick submission, it's probably going to be a pretty ugly, sloppy decision win, unless he's just hanging on to Barbosa for three rounds. So I'm curious to see if Barbosa can get up early. If he can get up early, can he keep getting up if Mitchell comes back and takes him down because that guy just clings on you. He seems very annoying to fight against. Has the undefeated record. Do you think that's overinflating him a little bit? Hasn't fought in a while, but doesn't necessarily train with the top camp. So I don't really know what kinds of improvements that he's making, but it's a tough stylistic matchup for Barbosa. Always going to be interested in plus money. I think there is value on him at plus money, but again, I prefer his inside the distance odds at plus 300. I believe that line is available at DraftKings. If he's winning enough minutes on the feet to win this fight in space, I expect that he's eventually going to find a way to knock Mitchell out. So plus 300 on Barbosa inside the distance. Moneyline, probably fair value too. But I believe maybe a live bet after round one, if Mitchell can't take him down, if it's obvious that Barbosa is going to be able to get up over and over, and Mitchell's top pressure isn't really working. But listen, if Mitchell goes into there and submits him right away, I don't think I'm necessarily going to be shocked either. This kid's grappling is pretty special. We just haven't really seen him get put in trouble on the feet. And I think this is the fight where it's going to happen. Billy, you have similar thoughts on Barbosa? Yeah, I'm riding with him, as is usually the case with Sean and I. I'm taking the safer route and just betting his money line. I could see him outpointing him and Mitchell being tough enough to survive. The big thing I'm looking to see, though, is whether Barbosa can get back to the feet once it does hit the ground. His takedown defense is solid at 78% through his UFC career, but he's probably going to get taken down at least once or twice in this fight. if he can get back up that's what I'm looking for in terms of the live betting and stuff like that but uh yeah you know it's a huge step up in competition for Mitchell he's never really fought someone that seasoned as Barbosa and I like the veteran I like the guy who we've seen do it at a high level before so I'm going with Barbosa he should also be bigger he's gonna have a four inch reach advantage I mean he used to fight at lightweight so he is the bigger guy it's just a matter of whether Mitchell's pressure is going to be too much for him I mean the guy just sort of he's like a leech he just grips on you and he doesn't let go until you're on the ground but if Barbosa can shock him off especially in the bigger cage I think the bigger cage”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“Yeah, I'm betting Serghei Spivac to win by submission. I think it's right around plus 300.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“Yeah, I'm going with Ludovit Klein at plus 140.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“His line has dropped from 150 to about 135. I still see some value here. He looks like a very strong striker. I watched his contender series bout. And he's facing Gregory Rodrigues, who should have the grappling advantage. But Petrosian was able to get back up to his feet pretty much immediately every time he was taken down in his contender series bout. He also had most of his pre-UFC bouts in Russia against a ton of really tough wrestlers. He's training in Dagestan with, you know, Khabib and all those guys. So I think his wrestling and his get back to his feet ability are at least going to give him enough of a chance to make this a stand-up affair. So I like him at plus 135.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“All right, before we wrap up this version of the Action Network podcast, the UFC Fight Night Vegas 49 betting preview, let's get to our best bets before we say goodbye. This can be anything, guys, money line, prop, a total. You can talk about something you already did, but if you have anything else to add, each of you give one bet, your best bet for the weekend. Billy, we'll go to you first. Yeah, I'm going to head over to prize picks. You know, being a DFS guy, I like to look at the stat lines and the stat markets. My favorite one right now, and it's jumped up from 2.5 to 3, is the Makachev takedowns in the main event. They had it at 2.5. Now it's 3. I think he goes well over that. I could see 5, 6, 7, just due to Bobby Green's durability and his ability to get back to his feet. So that seems like a fairly, I don't want to say easy pick because Makachev could put him away early. That's the risk on that one. But I think it far more likely than not that Green survives a couple takedowns There a lot more ways to win this one than there is to lose it He could get taken down once per round and get stuck there And you still winning the over three props All right How about you Sean Zerillo I going to go with Terrance McKinney against Ferris ZM”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.