Analyst · 254-357-3 on settled picks
| League | moneyline | prop | total | spread | parlay | other | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 146-162+7% | 79-172-14% | 13-11+23% | 10-7+21% | 4-5+58% | 1-0 | 253-357+0% |
“Fizyev to land one takedown at DraftKings is plus 150, so I really like that.”
Fiziev landed multiple takedowns in Round 1 (drove Torres to the fence, then dumped him off a caught kick) en route to his Round 2 TKO win.
“a knockout i really want to be on that side i bet him at plus 136 for half a unit he's down to plus”
Jean Matsumoto defeated Bekzat Almakhan (host's nickname "Shavkat Omakan") via unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night Baku. (Matsumoto def. Almakhan, UD (29-28 x3))
“Yeah, his over one and a half takedown prop is plus 120. I think”
Matheus Camilo finished Nazim Sadykhov via a pure-striking first-round TKO (right hand + ground-and-pound at 1:31-1:34) — no takedowns were landed in the fight.
“I think anything inside about minus 120, I would make him, like,”
Abus Magomedov defeated Michał Oleksiejczuk (mistranscribed "Mikhail Oleg Sechak") via 1st-round submission at UFC Fight Night Baku. (Magomedov def. Oleksiejczuk, sub (guillotine) R1 3:25)
“This was a full unit bet on Reyes for me.”
Javier Reyes lost to Kaan Ofli by submission (arm-triangle choke) at 4:16 of Round 1 at UFC Fight Night Baku.
“Yeah, I think I'd just go ahead and lay the minus 115.”
Manel Kape defeated Kyoji Horiguchi by TKO at 2:42 of Round 3 at UFC Vegas 119 — fight did not go to a decision.
“kudalaba round one at 12 to one”
Cutelaba lost the fight entirely (TKO loss to Navajo Stirling, Round 2) — did not win in Round 1.
“When it's plus 500, I'm going to take it.”
Kevin Borjas defeated Andre Lima via unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 119. (Borjas def. Lima, UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28))
“And those are the kind of guys that if you're getting plus 170, plus 175 on that I'm willing to be on.”
Shane Collins defeated Otari Tanzilovi via unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 119. (Collins def. Tanzilovi, UD (30-27 x3))
“actually want to play christian rodriguez now that he's at minus 200 i think i bet him minus 170 ish”
Christian Rodriguez defeated his opponent via 1st-round submission (guillotine) at UFC Vegas 119. (Rodriguez def. opponent, sub R1 3:43)
“I think even money might be the best price right now.”
Luana Santos defeated Karol Rosa via unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 119. (Santos def. Rosa, UD (30-27 x3))
“my favorite bet probably on the card is the alex pay to take down at plus 600”
Pereira was finished in R2 and recorded no takedown (only a stuffed desperation attempt). (Gane def. Pereira TKO R2)
“so I like O knockdown I surprised the price was that good at plus 200”
O'Malley beat Zahabi via TKO (KO) in round 2. (O'Malley def. Zahabi TKO R2, 4:02)
“You like Nickel to finish the fight, though, at plus 105.”
Bo Nickal won inside the distance via KO in round 1. (Nickal def. Daukaus KO R1, 4:34)
“I'm betting Garcia KO at plus 260. Also, the fight ends via KO at minus 110.”
Garcia lost; Lopes won by KO in round 2. (Lopes def. Garcia KO R2, 2:42)
“I'm betting Garcia KO at plus 260. Also, the fight ends via KO at minus 110.”
Lopes vs Garcia ended via KO in round 2. (Lopes def. Garcia KO R2, 2:42)
“not a huge bet for me, something I took earlier in the week for half a unit.”
Gabriel Bonfim defeated Belal Muhammad by unanimous decision (50-45 x3) in the UFC Vegas 118 main event. (Bonfim def. Muhammad, unanimous decision 50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
“So really like Shabazian here. [12:53] I would take him at kind of any plus money, I think.”
Brendan Allen defeated Edmen Shahbazyan by unanimous decision in the UFC Vegas 118 co-main event. (Allen def. Shahbazyan, unanimous decision)
“I think anywhere past about plus 200, I would be on the Nolan side.”
Tom Nolan defeated Fares Ziam by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC Vegas 118. (Nolan def. Ziam, unanimous decision 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
“one takedown from Iwo Baranowski is all we need.”
Baraniewski won by leg-kick/ground-and-pound TKO R1 but landed no successful takedown.
“This was the one bet I had in there, though, was Luis Felipe Diaz, who I”
Luis Felipe Dias defeated Yi Sak Lee via 1st-round TKO at UFC Macau. (Dias def. Lee, TKO, Round 1, 3:40)
“Noticed on Tuesday, course corrected a little bit and grabbed the plus 140 before it dropped anymore.”
Arnold Allen defeated Melquizael Costa via unanimous decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46) at UFC Vegas 117.
“I have a ton between minus four and minus 500 average price, probably about minus 450. [10:30] If I didn't have roughly eight units on that right now, I'd still bet her at minus 590.”
Ronda Rousey submitted Gina Carano via armbar in 17 seconds at MVP MMA: Rousey vs. Carano on Netflix, May 16, 2026.
“but 0.1 or 0.2 units on her round two, [12:46] I think it's the way to go.”
Rousey beat Carano by armbar in 17 seconds of round 1, not round 2, so the round-2 prop lost.
“I am on Diaz pre-fight.”
Nate Diaz lost to Mike Perry via 2nd-round TKO (corner stoppage) at MVP MMA 1. (Perry def. Diaz, TKO (corner stoppage), Round 2, 5:00)
“Yeah, I got JDS at plus 330 a couple days ago, posted about that in the action discord.”
Junior dos Santos was knocked out by Robelis Despaigne in Round 1 at MVP MMA 1. (Despaigne def. dos Santos, KO, Round 1, 2:00)
“I mean if her if her odds start with a plus I'm betting Pollyanna Vianna or she should absolutely [26:18] be a favorite.”
Polyana Viana lost to Alice Ardelean via 2nd-round submission (capsule lock) at UFC Vegas 117. (Ardelean def. Viana, submission (capsule lock), Round 2, 4:36)
“but Shawna Bannon is not great [43:13] and Cagliari can finish both via knockout or submission.”
Cagliari beat Bannon by submission (arm triangle) in round 3, a win inside the distance.
“I am taking his alternate point spread at plus 3 which gets you to plus 125”
Juan Diaz won outright via 2nd-round submission; a fighter finish automatically covers their own underdog round/point spread. (Diaz def. Wellmaker, submission (RNC), Round 2, 4:08)
“Yeah, so I bet him at minus 160 earlier in the week, and I'll take another L on this”
Bernardo Sopai (Sopaj) defeated Timmy Quamba (Cuamba) via 2nd-round submission (rear-naked choke) at UFC Vegas 117. (Sopai def. Quamba, submission (RNC), Round 2, 2:25)
“this is the luck ratings working as they were intended to, because I gave out [49:57] Santos at minus 142.”
Daniel Santos was TKO'd by Dooho Choi via body shot in Round 2 at UFC Vegas 117. (Choi def. Santos, TKO (body shot), Round 2, 4:29)
“You added a bet here late on Chaos Williams [53:36] at about minus 105 against Nikolai Veritenikov.”
Khaos (Kaelin) Williams defeated Nikolay Veretennikov via 1st-round TKO at UFC Vegas 117. (Williams def. Veretennikov, TKO, Round 1, 3:31)
“strickland here on the money line at plus 450”
Sean Strickland defeated Khamzat Chimaev by split decision to reclaim the UFC middleweight title at UFC 328.
“the thing I really like is Sean Strickland over 75 significant strikes is plus 300. He's pretty much never gone under that.”
Sean Strickland landed 129 significant strikes over five rounds vs Chimaev at UFC 328, easily clearing the 75.5 over.
“So I'm leaning towards Van.”
Joshua Van stopped Tatsuro Taira in Round 5 to retain the UFC flyweight title at UFC 328.
“yeah i'm on alvarez here it has started to then the line has started to now rebound back towards amoslav a little bit so i'm seeing as high as plus 160 now”
Yaroslav Amosov submitted Joel Alvarez via arm-triangle choke at 1:13 of Round 2 at UFC 328.
“So just systemically, I'm on that.”
Mateusz Rebecki lost to Grant Dawson by 3rd-round rear-naked-choke submission at UFC 328; no KO win.
“Under two and a half rounds between these two is plus 125.”
Stephens-Green ended by submission at 4:20 of Round 1, well under the 2.5-round total, at UFC 328.
“You're betting this fight to end in a split or majority decision at plus 400.”
Sabatini beat Gomis by unanimous decision (not a split or majority decision) at UFC 328, so the bet lost.
“But I do like the Brady side, all things considered.”
Sean Brady defeated Joaquin Buckley via unanimous decision at UFC 328.
“he's going to parlay the big favorites in Bysanger.”
Baisangur Susurkaev submitted Djorden Santos in Round 3 and Atiba Gautier KO'd Ozzy Diaz in Round 2 at UFC 328 — both legs of the favorites parlay hit.
“So you like, and I agree with this take, Jack to get a takedown. at plus 150 over half a takedown.”
Della Maddalena landed a takedown (a late takedown in Round 1) against Prates, clearing over 0.5 takedowns.
“so i will be on madalena pre hoping to get that plus 110”
Carlos Prates defeated Jack Della Maddalena by TKO at 3:17 of round 3 at UFC Fight Night Perth. (Prates wins by TKO, round 3 at 3:17)
“And I would imagine you don't mind the knockout prop for Berchek at plus 300, considering you're looking at this fight to end by KO at, I believe, plus 130? Yeah, that's the best line I saw at the time”
Robert Bryczek lost by unanimous decision to Cameron Rowston, so there was no Bryczek KO.
“If you can get a minus 130 or better on Thickness, I think I'm on that side. I think he's actually good, and he's only 26, so he should be getting better.”
Colby Thicknesse defeated Vince Morales by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC Fight Night Perth. (Thicknesse wins by unanimous decision)
“And Billy taking him to win in round one at plus 130 Billy did you consider a round one KO prop as opposed to just the round one prop”
Quillan Salkilld won by TKO (punches) at 3:29 of Round 1 at UFC Perth.
“GM3 in the submission only money line is plus 500.”
Gerald Meerschaert lost by unanimous decision to Jacob Malkoun, so no Meerschaert submission.
“half a unit on steel in round one or round two at plus 250”
Kody Steele won by submission (inverted heel hook) at 3:56 of Round 1.
“And then I'm going to have a full unit on his money line at around minus 200.”
Kody Steele defeated Dom Mar Fan by submission (heel hook) in round 1 at UFC Fight Night Perth. (Steele wins by submission, round 1 at 3:56)
“You like Edwards at about plus 200.”
Joselyne Edwards defeated Norma Dumont by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) at UFC Vegas 116. (Edwards wins by unanimous decision)
“this short notice for Joslyn Edwards,”
Joselyne Edwards beat Norma Dumont by unanimous decision over three rounds, not a round-1 finish.
“Garcia about plus 110 to plus 105. Billy likes him as an underdog selection this week.”
Rafa Garcia defeated Alexander Hernandez by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 116. (Garcia wins by unanimous decision)
“take the plus 120 on Vieira.”
Vieira lost to McConico by unanimous decision; the fight went the distance, so no inside-distance win.
“And I think Alencar, by submission, is probably the only way she wins this fight,”
Talita Alencar won by unanimous decision over Julia Polastri, not by submission.
“Over one and a half is slight plus money. I think”
Rafa (Jafa) Garcia landed multiple takedowns including two in round 1 plus another in round 3, clearing over 1.5.
“you get all the way up to plus 180. I like that better than his plus 130 money line. I also like”
Kyler Phillips lost to Charles Jourdain by unanimous decision, so the round-1/-1.5 round bet lost.
“his plus 130 money line. Probably have about half a unit on both of those. And to your point,”
Charles Jourdain defeated Kyler Phillips by unanimous decision (Fight of the Night) — Phillips's moneyline lost. (Jourdain def. Phillips, unanimous decision)
“but you like him to actually stop things over Charles Jourdain in the first round at 9-1.”
Charles Jourdain beat Kyler Phillips by unanimous decision at UFC Winnipeg, so Phillips did not win in round 1.
“Outside of my various Kyler Phillips feelings, this is probably my best bet.”
John Castaneda and Mark Vologdin fought to a majority draw (29-27, 28-28, 28-28) — moneyline bets push on a draw. (Castaneda vs. Vologdin, majority draw)
“and we're getting [9:56] minus 112 on Yuri.”
Jiri Prochazka was knocked out by Carlos Ulberg in Round 1 at UFC 327. (Prochazka lost by KO, R1 3:45)
“And he's taking Blades as the favorite, but he thinks you can probably wait and get a better number,”
Curtis Blaydes lost to Josh Hokit by unanimous decision at UFC 327. (Blaydes lost by unanimous decision)
“it i got a cub at plus 108 in my luck ratings first bet i put in this week”
Cub Swanson defeated Nate Landwehr by TKO (strikes) at 4:06 of Round 1 at UFC 327. (Swanson def. Landwehr by TKO, R1 4:06)
“so on the Walker side not because I feel strongly in him”
Johnny Walker lost to Dominick Reyes by split decision, so the KO bet lost.
“billy's best bet for this weekend is kevin holland at about [49:24] minus 110”
Kevin Holland defeated Randy Brown by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC 327. (Holland def. Brown by unanimous decision)
“My best bet for this weekend's card is an underdog at plus 150. [53:31] That's Markel Medeiros going up against Chris Taco Padilla,”
Chris Padilla was originally announced the winner by majority decision, but the result was corrected roughly an hour later to an official majority draw (28-28, 28-28, 29-27) after a scoring/reporting error — a 2-way moneyline on a draw settles as a push. (Official result: Padilla-Medeiros majority draw)
“I'm hoping to get 150 or better on Moicano.”
Renato Moicano submitted Chris Duncan via rear-naked choke in round 2 in the UFC Vegas 115 main event. (Moicano def. Duncan, submission R2)
“Yeah I think I be comfortable all the way down to like minus 120 with Richie”
Virna Jandiroba defeated Tabatha Ricci by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) in the UFC Vegas 115 co-main event. (Jandiroba def. Ricci, unanimous decision)
“Yeah, this is the second fight, including the [20:40] flowers, where I was leaning that way and then saw you put it in the sheet and decided to jump in.”
Ethan Ewing defeated Rafael Estevam by KO (body shot) in round 3 (1:44) at UFC Vegas 115. (Ewing def. Estevam, KO R3 1:44)
“minus 150 minus 180 not minus 300 so i will take the value here ruchala um point spread also an”
Jose Mauro Delano (Bispo) defeated Robert Ruchala by unanimous decision (30-26, 29-27, 29-27) at UFC Vegas 115. (Delano def. Ruchala, unanimous decision)
“I like this one under two and a half. I was really surprised at this price. It's [29:53] plus 235.”
Kai Kamaka III defeated Dakota Hope by split decision after a full 3-round fight, so total rounds (3.0) exceeded the 2.5 line and the Under lost. (Kamaka def. Hope, split decision, went full 3 rounds)
“yeah the current DraftKings SGP price on that is minus 110 I was kind of just clicking over”
Joe Pyfer defeated Israel Adesanya by TKO at 4:18 of Round 2 — Adesanya lost the fight and the bout never started Round 3, so both SGP legs lost. (Pyfer def. Adesanya, TKO R2 4:18)
“So I took Barber minus 170 a little bit earlier in the week.”
Alexa Grasso defeated Maycee (Macey) Barber by KO (left hand) at 2:42 of Round 1. (Grasso def. Barber, KO R1 2:42)
“So with all that said, I'm pretty firm on wanting like plus 120 or so on Usri.”
Yousri Belgaroui (referred to as "Yusri Belagori") defeated Mansur Abdul-Malik by KO (knee) at 3:39 of Round 3. (Belgaroui def. Abdul-Malik, KO R3 3:39)
“That is the point spread at Julian Arosa, plus five and a half points at plus 175.”
Lerryan Douglas knocked out Julian Erosa via strikes at 3:33 of Round 1 (a highlight-reel finish); Erosa was finished well outside covering the +5.5 significant-strikes spread. (Douglas def. Erosa, KO/strikes R1 3:33)
“Thank you for asking that question. Terrence McKinney in the under half round SGP at plus 340”
Terrance McKinney defeated Kyle Nelson by TKO at 0:24 of Round 1 — well under half of Round 1 (2:30). (McKinney def. Nelson, TKO R1 0:24)
“I like Fortune.”
Tyrell Fortune defeated Marcin Tybura by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28). (Fortune def. Tybura, UD)
“It is I am doing my climb for the week is Ignacio Baja Mondes Minus 300 a little bit riskier for those who don follow Jed Mishu creation It is trying to string together like 25 minus 500 wins in a row where you roll over the bankroll every time”
Tofiq Musayev defeated Ignacio Bahamondes by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) at UFC Fight Night Seattle on Mar 28, 2026; Bahamondes ML lost. (Musayev def. Bahamondes, unanimous decision)
“ratings this week, I said I'm taking about half a unit on Murphy and saving the other bit for a”
Movsar Evloev beat Lerone Murphy by majority decision at UFC Fight Night London (Mar 21); Murphy ML lost. (Scorecards 48-46, 48-46, 47-47 for Evloev)
“damage, but I'm doing half a unit on Riley inside the distance in general. And then 0.1 on his round”
Luke Riley won by unanimous decision over Michael Aswell, not inside the distance.
“two and round three props that way. If he gets to finish at all, I'm coming out well ahead. But if”
Riley won by decision with no finish, so neither the round-2 nor round-3 finish prop hit.
“personal well-being so you got a straightforward path to taking down austin lane just by being the”
Baraniewski finished Austen Lane by standing TKO (overhand right) in 28 seconds with no takedown landed.
“so that line is around 70 or lower obviously I'm going to take the over on that but I'm waiting for”
Shanelle Dyer finished Ravena Oliveira by TKO in round 2, far short of 70.5 significant strikes.
“I'll probably go under two and a half, which is plus 100.”
Christian Leroy Duncan defeated Roman Dolidze by unanimous decision after all 3 rounds (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) — fight went the distance, over 2.5 rounds. (Went 3 full rounds, UD)
“little bit I think anything inside of minus 140 I'd be on Jones and at that point if it crossed”
Mason Jones defeated Axel Sola by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28). (Jones def. Sola, UD)
“those together you get to plus 106 if you like the panther parlay this week and i as i said i do like”
Both parlay legs lost: Danny Silva TKO'd Kurtis (Curtis) Campbell at 0:31 of Round 2, and Nathaniel Wood beat Losene Keita ("Lo Sanketa") by split decision. (Both legs lost)
“We're going to take some Vallejo's significant strike overs.”
Vallejos landed only 36 significant strikes (Round 1 TKO finish), under the 70.5 line.
“So I like just kind of the fight IQ and the game plan of Robertson [16:42] enough that I'm willing to lay the almost two to one.”
Gillian Robertson (listed as 'Jillian') beat Amanda Lemos by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 114; Robertson ML won. (Robertson def. Lemos, unanimous decision)
“my luck ratings i said i'll take bruno silva plus 170 and leave a little bit of [20:45] you know extra bankroll on the table to bet bruno silva finish”
Charles Johnson beat Bruno Silva by split decision at UFC Vegas 114; Silva ML lost. (Scorecards 28-29, 29-28, 30-27 for Johnson)
“i'll take bruno silva plus 170 and leave a little bit of [20:45] you know extra bankroll on the table to bet bruno silva finish”
Bruno Silva lost a split decision to Charles Johnson at UFC Vegas 114 with no finish, so 'Silva to finish' lost.
“You're taking fight doesn't start round three. [29:53] I'm taking Rahiki inside the distance at plus money. [29:56] Your doesn't start round three is minus 125.”
Rahiki vs Hardwick ended via corner stoppage after round 2, so round 3 never began.
“this I got on this one early this week I got minus 140 it's in my luck [57:07] ratings”
Piera Rodriguez beat Sam Hughes by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 114; Rodriguez ML won. (Scorecards 30-27, 30-27, 30-27 for Rodriguez)
“Billy taking the dog shot on RDR at plus 220.”
Caio Borralho (announced as 'Kaio') beat Reinier de Ridder by unanimous decision at UFC 326; de Ridder's underdog ML lost. (Scorecards 30-27, 30-27, 30-27 for Borralho)
“I'd bet Fajeda with any plus in front of his number.”
Same mismatched-event bout as episode-6: actual fight was Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira ('Fajeda' = Ferreira, underdog). Rodrigues won by first-round KO, so Ferreira ML lost. (Gregory Rodrigues def. Brunno Ferreira, KO, Round 1)
“looking at is a small sprinkle. The round one point spread on DraftKings. Rose has to win the”
Raul Rosas Jr won Round 1 10-9 on all three cards (combined 30-27, a 3-point margin), covering the -1.5 round-1 point spread.
“round unanimously, so minus 1.5 points is minus 145. Round three point spread for Font, plus one”
Rosas swept Round 3 10-9 on all three cards (combined 27-30, a 3-point deficit for Font), so Font +1.5 did not cover.
“Yeah, I am betting Montez.”
Alberto Montes submitted Ricky Turcios via d'arce choke in round 2 at UFC 326; Montes ML won. (Montes def. Turcios, submission (d'arce choke), Round 2 (0:40))
“With all that said, Martinez in round one, the point spread that DraftKings is now offering, [14:01] love this line from our friends at DraftKings. [14:03] You can do it all the rounds, but it's moved to minus 165. [14:07] I got it at minus 150. [14:08] Still love that.”
David Martinez won by unanimous decision over Marlon Vera, not in Round 1.
“So I like Wes Schultz on the money line. [17:47] I make him closer to plus 165. [17:49] You can get him as high as about 225.”
Damian Pinas TKO'd Wes Schultz in Round 1 (2:30) at UFC Mexico City; Schultz's moneyline lost. (Pinas def. Schultz via TKO, R1 2:30)
“Yeah, love that takedown line. [42:07] Can't believe I let you beat me to that one.”
Marshall finished Silva by R1 RNC at 2:29 off one takedown, so he landed only 1 takedown and the over 1.5 takedowns missed.
“But, yeah, I'm on Aileen Perez for all the reasons you said as well. [45:48] Love the submission prop.”
Irene Aldana was not on this card and did not fight Macy Chiasson — the actual bout was Ailin Perez vs. Macy Chiasson (Perez won by unanimous decision). The described event never occurred, so this pick cannot be graded. (Perez def. Chiasson via unanimous decision (fight actually contested was Perez vs. Chiasson, not Aldana))
“Now, Billy, you're taking the plus nine and a half on Sean Strickland. [8:30] Was minus 110 when I saw it open? [8:32] I guess you like it up to about minus 125 or it is minus 125 currently.”
Sean Strickland won the fight outright by TKO in round 3, so the +9.5 underdog spread on Strickland covers regardless of scoring method. (Strickland def. Hernandez via TKO (strikes), 2:23 of Round 3)
“Jeff Neal, over half a takedown is plus 250.”
Geoff Neal was knocked out cold at 1:19 of Round 1 by Uros Medic with no takedowns recorded.
“So I really like the ends inside the distance.”
Alibi Idiris beat Ode Osbourne by unanimous decision, so the fight went the distance.
“So if you can get under one and a half takedowns on Levitt,”
Jordan Leavitt landed four takedowns on Yadier del Valle, over the 1.5 line.
“and that is Michelle Pajeta to land as many as one takedown at plus 150.”
Michel Pereira landed at least one takedown (first in Round 2) en route to a split-decision win over Reese.
“I'm flying off to anti-Delia land on this one.”
Serghei Spivac defeated Ante Delija by unanimous decision at UFC Houston; Delija's moneyline lost. (Spivac def. Delija via unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28))
“That's another one I've added to my bet slip while [55:11] you were talking because I was close to that on my own.”
Carlos Leal defeated Chidi Njokuani by unanimous decision at UFC Houston; moneyline won. (Leal def. Njokuani via unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28))
“yeah if you're close then sam darnold passing touchdowns plus 110”
Jailton Almeida landed zero takedowns vs Kuniev (all attempts stuffed) while Sam Darnold threw 1 passing TD, so Almeida did not have more.
“which is why I'm going to Aljamain Sterling minus five and a half.”
Aljamain Sterling dominated Brian Ortega, sweeping all three judges' cards 50-45 (5-round co-main) at UFC Shanghai — a combined scorecard margin of 15 points, comfortably covering -5.5. (Sterling won by unanimous decision, 50-45 x3)
“So I bet him at, I believe, 138 earlier in the week.”
Su Mudaerji defeated Kevin Borjas by unanimous decision at UFC Shanghai, so the Borjas moneyline lost. (Sumudaerji won 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
“I put in the pay to inside the distance before I saw the fight”
Pereira was KO'd by Kyle Daukaus in Round 1 at UFC Shanghai; he did not win inside the distance. (Lost via KO R1 0:43)
“I got him at plus 114, slight plus money.”
Dom Mar Fan defeated Jae Hyun Park by unanimous decision in the Road to UFC lightweight semifinal. (Dom Mar Fan won by unanimous decision (3 rounds))
“So Aaron Tao, somewhere between minus 170 and minus 180.”
Aaron Tau (spelled 'Tao' in pick) defeated Yin Shuai by unanimous decision at Road to UFC Season 4 semifinals on Aug 22, 2025. (Tau def. Yin Shuai, unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28))
“It's the Hamzat Shemaev in any of the first three rounds. [8:24] That's even money at FanDuel.”
Khamzat Chimaev won by unanimous decision over Du Plessis (5 rounds); did not win in any of the first three rounds. (Chimaev def. Du Plessis 50-44 x3.)
“I think probably the sharpest way here is to come in with that plus three and a half on Lerone [14:01] Murphy. That's minus 165.”
Lerone Murphy won outright (KO, Round 1), easily covering the +3.5 spread. (Murphy def. Pico by KO, Round 1, 3:21)
“Bill, you're going GM three round three sub or no GM three by sub at plus 450.”
Meerschaert lost by Oleksiejczuk TKO in Round 1; no submission win. (Lost via TKO R1)
“It's Jared Cannoneer to land one plus takedown [44:33] over half a takedown at plus money.”
Cannonier landed takedowns vs Michael Page (R2 and R3) at UFC 319, clearing 0.5. (1+ takedowns landed)
“Delizze is plus 165 on that.”
This was a round-1-only moneyline, refunded if the fight didn't end in round 1. Anthony Hernandez submitted Dolidze in round 4, so per the bet's own terms it's a refund/void. (Anthony Hernandez def. Roman Dolidze by submission, Round 4, 2:45)
“my my first bet on this is ursig by submission at plus 185”
Steve Erceg beat Ode Osbourne by unanimous decision, not by submission.
“If you can get over one and a half at plus money I would definitely take that”
Erceg landed 3 takedowns against Osbourne, clearing the over 1.5.
“End and time the distance is plus 115 Under two and a half is plus 145 I say that an accurate price gap right”
Christian Leroy Duncan stopped Eryk Anders via TKO at 3:53 of round 1, so the fight ended inside the distance.
“Tyra to land over two and a half takedowns at minus 115.”
Taira landed 4 takedowns (of 5 attempts) per official stats, clearing the over 2.5.
“What were the odds on the over four and a half through Rombetsky, Billy? [11:55] If you combine those as minus 105.”
Chris Duncan defeated Mateusz Rebecki by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27); the parlay loses on the moneyline leg regardless of fight duration. (Duncan def. Rebecki UD)
“Billy likes Klein on the money line.”
Andrey Pulyaev TKO'd Nick Klein via body kick and follow-up punches in round 2. (Pulyaev def. Klein TKO-2)
“I like Cornell at plus 160, plus 170 range.”
The actual Aug 2, 2025 fight was Karol Rosa vs Nora Cornolle (not Ailin Perez); Rosa won by unanimous decision, so the Cornolle moneyline lost. (Karol Rosa def. Nora Cornolle by unanimous decision at UFC on ESPN 71 (Taira vs Park), Aug 2, 2025)
“I got Viera on the money line. [48:05] He's 218 now.”
Rodolfo Vieira defeated Tresean Gore by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 108. (Vieira won 29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
“and then another half a unit on him inside the distance, even money.”
Rodolfo Vieira beat Tresean Gore by unanimous decision, going the distance rather than inside it.
“put like half a unit on his money line in this one.”
Esteban Ribovics defeated Elves Brener by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 108, so the Brener moneyline lost. (Ribovics won 29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
“So you're taking Derrida Prefight, but are you interested in this one live at all?”
Reinier de Ridder defeated Robert Whittaker by split decision (48-47, 48-47, 47-48) in Abu Dhabi. (de Ridder def. Whittaker split decision)
“You're taking the Guskov knockout side of this fight. [47:10] Where do you like that one down to, Billy?”
Bogdan Guskov beat Nikita Krylov by TKO (punches) in Round 1; KO-side cashes. (Guskov def. Krylov by TKO, R1 4:18.)
“would shock me. So I'm actually not betting this one as it stands now. I think I'll still come in”
Max Holloway defeated Dustin Poirier by unanimous decision (48-47, 49-46, 49-46) at UFC 318. (Holloway UD3 (48-47, 49-46, 49-46))
“So, yeah, over half a guillotine attempt from Dustin Foyer,”
Poirier jumped his trademark guillotine on Holloway in Round 2 at UFC 318; at least one guillotine attempt occurred. (Holloway won by unanimous decision; Poirier's R2 guillotine was escaped late.)
“correlation by the books built in there but it's plus 575 with a draft kings sgp for both those”
Costa defeated Kopylov by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28), but Costa's only takedown attempt (a level change/leg grab in round 3) was stuffed — 0 takedowns landed, so the SGP parlay loses on the takedown leg. (Costa def. Kopylov UD; 0 takedowns landed by Costa)
“Yeah, I think probably just the money line.”
Brendan Allen defeated Marvin Vettori by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC 318. (Allen def. Vettori UD)
“So what I'm doing here is I'm betting one unit on Holland to win inside the distance.”
Daniel Rodriguez beat Kevin Holland by unanimous decision; Holland did not win inside the distance. (Rodriguez def. Holland 29-28 x3.)
“that's minus 150 and then half a unit on the decision only market for d-rod which gets refunded”
Daniel Rodriguez won by unanimous decision; decision-only market on D-Rod cashes (no finish, no refund). (Rodriguez def. Holland by UD.)
“Yeah, I love them both.”
Fight went the full 3-round distance (Michael Johnson def. Zellhuber by unanimous decision, 29-28 x3) — no finish inside 2.5 rounds, and Zellhuber lost rather than winning by KO. (Johnson def. Zellhuber UD, went the distance (3 rounds))
“This is one of the few bets on this card that I'm like very excited about.”
Nikolay Veretennikov defeated Francisco Prado by split decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC 318. (Veretennikov def. Prado split decision)
“taking a little bit of a sprinkle at Derek Lewis's money line though it's a huge step up for Talos”
Derrick Lewis knocked out Tallison Teixeira via TKO at 0:35 of round 1 in the UFC Nashville main event. (TKO R1 0:35)
“The other bat, and I like this one considerably more than my Lewis Sprinkle, is the fight to start a round two at plus 110.”
Lewis TKO'd Teixeira at 0:35 of R1; fight never reached round 2. (Lewis TKO R1 0:35)
“So you're in agreement, Bonfim, round one or round two of plus 125.”
Bonfim won but by split decision (went the distance), not in R1 or R2. (Bonfim split decision)
“And that's Austin Lane to get a takedown at plus 250.”
Lane was taken down/controlled and submitted in R1; he secured no takedown of his own. (Petrino dumped Lane, took mount, finished by RNC)
“The sub for sure.”
Valter Walker beat Nzechukwu by submission (heel hook) at 0:54 of R1. (Walker via submission, R1)
“I'm feeling better about my Jake Matthews bet seeing this weigh-in results than I was when I made it a couple hours ago.”
Jake Matthews submitted Chidi Njokuani (rear-naked choke) at 1:09 of round 1. (Sub (RNC) R1 1:09)
“i'm actually on top of nate's money line i'm going to”
Morgan Charrière defeated Nate Landwehr at UFC Nashville. (Charrière def. Landwehr)
“take a flyer on land whereby submission i saw plus 1500 out there which is it's unlikely i'm”
Landwehr lost by TKO in R3; no submission win. (Charriere def. Landwehr via KO/TKO, R3)
“is Tokos in over four and a half minutes in an SGP.”
Tuco Tokkos won by submission at 4:25 of round 2 (~9:25 total fight time), covering both the moneyline leg and the over-4.5-minutes leg of the SGP. (Sub (arm-triangle) R2 4:25)
“So I have 0.6 units or to win half a unit on Steve Garcia money line, 0.4 units on knockout.”
Steve Garcia defeated Calvin Kattar by unanimous decision, extending his win streak to six. (Garcia def. Kattar UD)
“0.4 units on knockout.”
Garcia won but by decision, not KO. (Steve Garcia def. Calvin Kattar by decision (went the distance))
“Yeah, I got the underdog Charles Oliveira, Chucky Olives at plus 350. I think kind of anything north of plus 300, I'm interested.”
Ilia Topuria knocked out Charles Oliveira at 2:27 of Round 1 to win the vacant UFC lightweight title at UFC 317. (Topuria def. Oliveira by KO, Round 1, 2:27)
“I'll stick with the under half around one and a half rounds and two and a half rounds, uh, two and a half. You can get as low as minus one 28. That seems like a pretty good number to me. It's probably the one I'll bet the biggest of the three.”
Topuria KO'd Oliveira at 2:27 of R1; fight ended under 2.5 rounds. (KO (punches) R1 2:27)
“i like to pour yet same game parlayed with the unders under half around is 475 under one and a half plus 130 under two and a half minus 130”
Topuria finished at 2:27 of R1, past the 0.5-round mark; Under 0.5 loses. (KO (punches) R1 2:27)
“i like to pour yet same game parlayed with the unders under half around is 475 under one and a half plus 130 under two and a half minus 130”
Topuria KO'd Oliveira at 2:27 of R1; fight ended under 1.5 rounds. (KO (punches) R1 2:27)
“You like the favorite Pantoja, but you like him in the same game parlay with the over one and a half rounds.”
Pantoja won via R3 rear-naked choke; ML hits and fight went over 1.5 rounds. (Pantoja SUB (RNC) R3 1:55)
“So if you don't want the over one and a half in the SGP, I like his point spread. The minus five and a half is around the same odds. Anything like that with Pantoja”
Pantoja out-landed Kara-France in total significant strikes 42-38 (a +4 differential), short of the -5.5 spread needed to cover, before finishing him by submission in Round 3. (Sig. strikes: Pantoja 42, Kara-France 38 (diff +4, needed -5.5))
“My first one is on Peyton Talbot as an underdog at around plus 150.”
Payton Talbott defeated Felipe Lima via unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC 317. (Talbott def. Lima by unanimous decision, 3 rounds)
“The other bet, I like the under two and a half, also around the same price. I've got that at plus 154.”
Talbott vs. Lima went the full distance to a unanimous decision (3 rounds), exceeding the under 2.5 rounds line. (Fight went 3 full rounds (decision) — over 2.5)
“but at plus 140, I think it correlates really well. Again, pretty much the exact same thing you're saying with Peyton Talbot, but the inverse of that. So that is my angle on there. Not one of my favorite bets on the slate, but definitely a bet I will be making.”
Rodrigues KO'd Hermansson at 4:21 of R1; won inside the distance. (Rodrigues KO R1 4:21)
“Plus 172 I really like. That's a big price for that one.”
Delgado KO'd Amil at 0:26 of R1; fight did not reach a decision. (Delgado KO R1 0:26)
“Yeah, I jumped on Darius at plus 118 in my luck ratings, and this is why I published the early week article so I can quote these better prices when stuff moves like that.”
Beneil Dariush defeated Renato Moicano via unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC 317. (Dariush def. Moicano by unanimous decision, 3 rounds)
“I'm going lower than four and a half minutes fight time. Jacoby Smith very likely to pick up a first round finish here.”
Smith submitted Price at 4:03 of R2 (~9:03 total); fight exceeded 4.5 minutes. (Smith SUB R2 4:03 (total ~9:03))
“And then along with that, Nico Price lower than 17.5 significant strikes.”
Niko Price landed ~34 significant strikes, well over 17.5. (Price 34 sig strikes (19 R1 + 15 R2))
“So for me, it is half a unit on Van pre-fight and then looking to get back live on Roy Val hopefully at plus money so we cash the ticket either way”
Joshua Van defeated Brandon Royval by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) at UFC 317. (Van UD3 (29-28, 29-28, 30-27))
“inside the distance of plus 175 is probably the safest. Just it's a five round fight.”
Hill vs Rountree Jr. went the full five rounds to a unanimous decision; no inside-the-distance finish. (Rountree def. Hill UD (5 rounds))
“I think somebody finishes that one I'm going to take [17:03] Fazeev free fight on [17:05] the inside the distance and the KO lines [17:07] I prefer that to his money line”
Fiziev beat Bahamondes by unanimous decision; did not finish inside the distance. (Fiziev def. Bahamondes UD 30-27 x3)
“And I like getting plus 400 on one of those sides.”
Seok Hyeon Ko (nickname 'The Korean Tyson' — transcribed as 'Sung Bin Jo') defeated Oban Elliott via unanimous decision (30-27 x3) at UFC Fight Night Baku. (Ko def. Elliott by unanimous decision, 3 rounds)
“But, you know, what are the odds [25:57] he can't even win one round [25:58] with a takedown here and there?”
Muhammad Naimov defeated Bogdan Grad via unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC Fight Night Baku. (Naimov def. Grad by unanimous decision, 3 rounds)
“I like Elliott to stay lower than 2.5 takedowns here.”
Ko dominated the grappling; Elliott recorded no meaningful takedowns, staying under 2.5. (Ko def. Elliott UD; Elliott landed ~10-13 sig strikes, no TDs)
“And then I'm going to throw that in there with Siakon Koh. [26:55] Higher than 32.5 significant strikes.”
Ko (Seok-hyeon Ko) landed 33 significant strikes vs Elliott, just over 32.5. (Ko 33 sig strikes (8+15+10) across 3 rounds)
“So with all that said, that leads me to his inside the distance of minus 170.”
Sadykhov TKO'd Motta in Round 2, winning inside the distance. (Sadykhov def. Motta TKO R2 (4:17))
“So you were taking Oralbae in the money line, which means I think you feel like he can finish [40:04] the fight in potentially the second or third rounds.”
Myktybek Orolbai submitted Tofiq Musayev via first-round kimura (4:35) at UFC Fight Night Baku. (Orolbai def. Musayev by submission, Round 1, 4:35)
“but if we get Usman at plus six plus 700 kind of at any point that's worth a quarter unit to me you know like anytime we get a big number on it great take it”
Kamaru Usman defeated Joaquin Buckley by unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47) at UFC Atlanta (June 14, 2025) — Usman's ML won. (Usman def. Buckley, unanimous decision)
“Outside of that, though, I think this should be about a pick-em. Plus 200 on Miranda Maverick.”
Rose Namajunas defeated Miranda Maverick by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC Atlanta — Maverick's ML lost. (Namajunas def. Maverick, unanimous decision)
“so no court mcgee by sub i do like him straight up yeah”
Michael Chiesa defeated Court McGee by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC Atlanta — McGee's ML lost. (Chiesa def. McGee, unanimous decision)
“that is Malcolm Wellmaker higher than 26.5 significant strikes.”
Wellmaker KO'd Moutinho in Round 1 with only ~25 significant strikes landed, short of 26.5. (Wellmaker ~25 sig strikes, KO R1 (2:37))
“you taking Craig by KO at 14 to 1”
Craig vs Bellato ruled a No Contest (illegal upkick) at 4:58 of Round 1; no KO/TKO result. (No Contest R1 (illegal upkick))
“I love the round two. I would be pretty shocked if Brundage survives two full rounds with Mansur Abdul-Malik.”
Abdul-Malik won by technical decision (full distance), not in Round 2. (Abdul-Malik def. Brundage technical decision)
“Yeah, but it's Phil Rowe versus Angelosa. I am taking the under two and a half at plus 215.”
Phil Rowe stopped Ange Loosa via comeback TKO in round 3 at UFC Atlanta — the fight lasted into the 3rd round, so 'under 2.5 rounds' lost (over hit). (Rowe def. Loosa, TKO R3)
“But yeah I mostly with you I do kind of like Ochoa by finish”
Jose Ochoa knocked out Cody Durden via TKO 11 seconds into round 2 at UFC Atlanta — Ochoa's ML won. (Ochoa def. Durden, TKO R2 (0:11))
“That gives me Kayla Harrison in the first three rounds. That as even money. It was plus 115 when I wrote the article about it, but still at even money.”
Kayla Harrison submitted Pena via kimura in Round 2; win within first three rounds cashes. (Sub R2)
“I want Holland lower than 46.5 significant strikes.”
Kevin Holland landed 24 significant strikes before submitting Luque in R2; under 46.5 cashes. (24 sig strikes)
“And then on the flip side, also Vicente Luque, lower than 38.5 significant strikes.”
Vicente Luque landed 40 significant strikes before being submitted in R2; over 38.5, so under loses. (40 sig strikes)
“kevin holland ko i was like the under one and a half at plus 148”
Holland/Luque ended at 1:03 of Round 2; under 1.5 rounds loses. (Sub R2 1:03)
“Yeah, I took Spivak straight up.”
Waldo Cortes-Acosta defeated Serghei Spivac by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC 316 — Spivak's ML lost. (Cortes-Acosta def. Spivac, unanimous decision)
“I like you in rounds one or two in minus 120 at Jekka Saragi.”
Joo Sang Yoo KO'd Jeka Saragih at 0:28 of Round 1; win in rounds one-or-two cashes. (KO R1 0:28)
“But yeah, love Kelvin Gastelum at 3-1 underdog. Think he dominates the latter portion of this fight.”
Joe Pyfer defeated Kelvin Gastelum by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-27, 30-27) at UFC 316, dropping Gastelum twice early — Gastelum's ML lost. (Pyfer def. Gastelum, unanimous decision)
“you're betting Blanchfield by round four or five or decision at minus 135.”
Blanchfield vs Barber was canceled after Barber was not medically cleared; bet voided. (Fight canceled)
“my main bet is on Gamrot straight up.”
Mateusz Gamrot shut out Ludovit Klein by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 107, May 31 2025. (Gamrot def. Klein 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
“I took Ardellian I not sure how to say it I don really care that much Early in the week in my luck rating she still there at about the same price”
Alice Ardelean defeated Rayanne Dos Santos by unanimous decision (Fight of the Night) at UFC Vegas 107. (Ardelean def. Dos Santos 30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
“I'm targeting Andreas Gustafson higher than 0.5 finishes.”
Gustafsson vs Giles was canceled after Giles withdrew with an injury; prop voided. (Fight canceled)
“and then with that I'm playing Trevin Giles lower than 27.5 significant strikes.”
Bout cancelled; Trevin Giles withdrew injured before weigh-ins at UFC Vegas 107, so the significant-strikes prop did not action. (Fight scrapped 5/30/25)
“I am on Filio straight up.”
Allan Nascimento defeated Jafel Filho by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 107. (Nascimento def. Filho 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
“I went looking for this bet trying to find a good price on Bellotto by knockout and saw 2 on Craig You can not take that right Like I put one of a unit because that all FanDuel would let me”
Bellato vs Craig was canceled ~30 min before the fight after Bellato had a medical issue; bet voided. (Fight canceled)
“more than happy with him, anything with a plus in front of it, basically given all those factors.”
Myron Santos defeated Sadiq Yusuff (decision) at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Morales, May 17 2025. (Santos def. Yusuff, unanimous decision)
“Hyun Sung Park, minus 175 at Caesars, last I looked. [40:21] It's a bit of an offline. [40:22] Everywhere else is a little bit higher. [40:24] Carlos Hernandez is the ultimate luck fade.”
HyunSung Park submitted Carlos Hernandez in round 1 at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Morales, May 17 2025. (Park def. Hernandez via submission (rear-naked choke), Rd 1, 2:26)
“I like her 4-5 decision prop, which that's even coming down. [20:40] It's plus 155 now.”
Shevchenko beat Manon Fiorot by unanimous decision at UFC 315. (Shevchenko UD 48-47 x3)
“So I like Manon Fioro lower than 87.5 significant strikes.”
Manon Fiorot landed 71 significant strikes vs Shevchenko at UFC 315, under 87.5. (Fiorot 71 of 160 sig strikes over 5 rounds)
“I'm adding Valentina Shevchenko higher than [23:07] 51.55 fantasy points.”
Shevchenko cleared 51.55 fantasy pts: 72 sig strikes, 2 takedowns, a knockdown, ~90s control. (72 sig strikes (36) + 2 TD (10) + knockdown (10) + control = ~60+ pts)
“I actually like the pre-fight. I don't know that that [27:23] grappling plays out the way you described”
Mike Malott defeated Charles Radtke (Radke) by KO (strikes) at 0:26 of Round 2 at UFC 315. (Malott def. Radke, KO R2 0:26)
“What I have in there right now is the over one and a half at plus 130.”
Benoit Saint Denis defeated Kyle Prepolec by submission (arm-triangle choke) at 2:35 of Round 2 at UFC 315 — the fight reached (started) Round 2, clearing the 1.5-round total. (Saint Denis def. Prepolec, submission R2 2:35)
“I've got Sterling round two, plus 480, round three at plus 700. [50:34] Both those are on FanDuel.”
Navajo Stirling won but by unanimous decision over 3 rounds, not a round-2 finish. (Stirling def. Erslan UD 29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
“I've got Sterling round two, plus 480, round three at plus 700. [50:34] Both those are on FanDuel.”
Navajo Stirling won by decision, not a round-3 finish. (Stirling def. Erslan UD 29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
“I'm giving out the best bet. Like I am super happy [56:56] about this one. Um, Bexat Almakan”
Bekzat Almakhan (Almakan) knocked out Brad Katona in Round 1 (1:04) at UFC 315. (Almakhan def. Katona, KO R1 1:04)
“So what I'm doing is a quarter unit on Figgy at plus 430 heading into the fight and then [6:19] looking for Sandhagen live.”
Cory Sandhagen defeated Deiveson Figueiredo by TKO (injury) at 4:08 of Round 2 at UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo (Des Moines). (Sandhagen TKO2 (4:08))
“So what I'm looking to do here is come in. [8:39] I'm taking the money line on RDR. [8:41] The best I'm seeing right now is plus 275.”
Reinier de Ridder defeated Bo Nickal by TKO (knees) at 1:53 of Round 2 at UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo. (de Ridder TKO2 (1:53))
“The narrow underdog, Cam Smotherman, he's plus 114. [16:42] He's taking on Sergei Saidi.”
Serhiy Sidey defeated Cameron Smotherman by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Figueiredo. (Sidey def. Smotherman, UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28))
“But I am on the Ponzinibbio side. There's a couple of reasons here.”
Daniel Rodriguez defeated Santiago Ponzinibbio by TKO (punches) at 1:12 of Round 3. (Rodriguez def. Ponzinibbio, TKO R3 1:12)
“Gaston Bilanos by knockout at plus 300. [33:08] He's the one fighting Kwong Lee.”
Gaston Bolanos lost to Quang Le by R2 submission (RNC), so no Bolanos KO. (Quang Le sub R2 1:54)
“Misha Tate I going to bet The line getting a little wide but if I can get it minus 140 minus 138 I good with that”
Yana Santos defeated Miesha Tate by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC Des Moines. (Batch data lists the opponent as 'Gianna Santos' but this is the same bout, vs. Yana Santos.) (Santos def. Tate, UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28))
“in there right now is I have Gary in rounds four or five or by decision at plus 185 you know”
Garry won by decision, satisfying the rounds 4-5 or decision bet. (Garry UD over Prates)
“and a half takedowns was plus 120 on draft kings for Ian Gary. I think that at anything better than”
Garry landed 4 takedowns vs Prates, over the 1.5 line. (Garry 4/19 takedowns)
“I got Muniz at plus 470 earlier in the week, gave that out my luck rating.”
Ikram Aliskerov defeated Andre Muniz by TKO (strikes) at 4:54 of Round 1 at UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates. (Aliskerov TKO1 (4:54))
“power striker and saman just has more pass to victory so the best i saw was minus 102 if it got”
Malcolm Wellmaker defeated Cameron Saaiman (referred to phonetically as 'Saimon'/'Samen'/'Saman' in the audio) by KO (right hand) at 1:59 of Round 1 at UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates. (Wellmaker KO1 (1:59))
“So pretty clear, like I want to come in [5:34] with plus money on Lopez and I want, you know, at the end of the first or second round or really [5:39] anytime I see Volk at plus money to just have that portfolio”
Alexander Volkanovski defeated Diego Lopes by unanimous decision at UFC 314 to recapture the featherweight title; Lopes's ML lost. (Volkanovski def. Lopes, unanimous decision (48-47, 49-46, 49-46))
“the bet i do really really like is a point to be deducted at 20 to 1 on”
No point was deducted in Chandler vs Pimblett; an accidental low blow paused action but drew no deduction. (No point deducted)
“I think I'd take [27:53] the money line down to like plus 130 or plus 140”
Yair Rodriguez spoiled Patricio Pitbull's UFC debut with a one-sided unanimous decision (30-27 x3) at UFC 314; Pitbull's ML lost. (Rodriguez def. Pitbull, unanimous decision (30-27 x3))
“The other bet I have on this is Pitbull's finish only.”
Patricio Pitbull lost to Yair Rodriguez by unanimous decision; no finish. (Rodriguez UD 30-27 x3)
“I'm taking his money line”
Dan Ige defeated Sean Woodson by TKO in Round 3 (1:12) at UFC 314; Ige's ML won. (Ige def. Woodson, TKO, R3 1:12)
“I bet Mitch Raposo, when he was plus 170 earlier in the week, I think I'd still take his plus 145.”
Sumudaerji defeated Mitch Raposo by split decision at UFC 314; Raposo's ML lost. (Sumudaerji def. Raposo, split decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29))
“bet we both really like it six to one.”
Chase Hooper beat Jim Miller by unanimous decision, not by KO. (Hooper UD over Miller)
“inside the distance at whatever the best i can find just because i'm mad about that”
Jean Silva submitted Bryce Mitchell in R2; won inside the distance. (Silva def. Mitchell, SUB R2 at UFC 314)
“The line is continuing to come down on Jandaroba.”
Virna Jandiroba dominated Yan Xiaonan for a unanimous decision (30-27 x3) at UFC 314; Jandiroba's ML won. (Jandiroba def. Yan Xiaonan, unanimous decision (30-27 x3))
“I'd probably go inside the distance with Mikal”
Oleksiejczuk finished Dumas by TKO in R1; won inside the distance. (Oleksiejczuk def. Dumas, TKO R1 (2:49))
“I really liked Moreno inside a two to one on Monday, [6:10] and it's just a classic luck ratings pick for me”
Brandon Moreno defeated Steve Erceg by unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46) at UFC Mexico City on March 29, 2025.
“I got at a plus 102 a little bit earlier in the week and logged that in the app.”
Manuel Torres defeated Drew Dober by TKO (punches) in round 1 at 1:45.
“At plus 250 on the money line, I think that's a pretty strong combination.”
The Gastelum vs. Pyfer bout was scratched hours before the event after Pyfer fell ill; the fight never happened.
“Medina to get a takedown on DraftKings was plus 225, at least as of last night. [23:40] Check it. [23:42] Those move all over the place like crazy. [23:42] I would play that anything north of like plus 150.”
Medina was knocked out by Ateba Gautier (knee) in Round 1 with no takedown recorded. (Gautier def. Medina, KO (knee) R1)
“Billy, you gave out Christian Rodriguez earlier in this week in your luck rankings at minus [34:48] 140”
Melquizael Costa defeated Christian Rodriguez by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28).
“I'm actually just laying the [13:28] juice on Olberg at minus 290 because Jan is durable. But yeah, the minus three and a half [13:34] at minus 140, or even Olberg inside the distance at plus 150.”
Ulberg defeated Blachowicz by unanimous decision in a confirmed 3-round fight (29-28 x3), but "Ulberg -3.5 (rounds)" does not correspond to any standard MMA sportsbook market (not a total-rounds O/U, which tops out below 3.5 in a 3-round bout, and not a real fighter-vs-fighter round handicap) — the bet cannot be reliably matched to a gradable line. (Unanimous decision, 29-28 x3 (3-round bout))
“I think I'm doing a quarter unit on three underdogs that are all plus 300 or better.”
Kaue Fernandes defeated Guram Kutateladze by unanimous decision (30-27 x3) — Fernandes moneyline wins. (Unanimous decision, 30-27 x3)
“one of your best bets for this week, Morgan Sherrier on the money line at minus 142.”
Nathaniel Wood defeated Morgan Charriere at UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Brady — Charriere moneyline loses. (Wood defeats Charriere)
“I took Marvin Vittori at minus 140 earlier in the week. That was in my luck ratings.”
Roman Dolidze defeated Marvin Vettori by unanimous decision (49-46 x3) in their rematch at UFC Fight Night 254. (Unanimous decision loss for Vettori)
“The two I'm looking at is either Dos Santos [11:39] inside the distance at plus 150.”
Eliseu Zaleski dos Santos lost by TKO to Chidi Njokuani; he did not win inside the distance. (Njokuani def. dos Santos TKO R2 (2:19))
“and then the under two and a half is plus 170”
Priscila Cachoeira defeated Josiane Nunes by KO (punch) 2:46 into round 1 — total fight length of 1 round is under the 2.5-round line. (KO, Rd 1, 2:46)
“So plus [33:53] 150 on Spann. I think the market is just overreacting to the weight differential here,”
Waldo Cortes-Acosta defeated Ryan Spann by TKO in round 2 (4:48) — Spann moneyline loses. (TKO, Rd 2, 4:48)
“Tell me why you're betting on Peloton season to continue this weekend. [3:54] I mean, the biggest reason is I'm very tired of losing money betting against Alex Pajeda.”
Magomed Ankalaev defeated Alex Pereira by unanimous decision (49-46, 48-47, 48-47) to win the UFC light heavyweight title at UFC 313. (Unanimous decision loss for Pereira)
“It's just if there's ever a situation he's going to wrestle, [13:21] this is absolutely it.”
Gaethje landed 0 takedowns (0/1) vs Fiziev; only Fiziev scored takedowns. (Gaethje 0 of 1 TD)
“And given that variance, I like the plus money side.”
Ignacio Bahamondes submitted Jalin Turner via triangle choke at 2:29 of Round 1 at UFC 313. (Submission loss for Turner, R1 2:29)
“i'm on bruno fajeda round one or two at plus 220”
Brunno Ferreira beat Armen Petrosyan by submission (armbar) at 4:27 of Round 2 (within rounds 1-2). (Ferreira sub R2 (4:27))
“and that's King Green to get a takedown at plus 275.”
Bobby Green was KO'd by Ruffy at 2:07 of Round 1 in a standup fight; landed no takedown. (Green KO'd R1)
“Well, I will say this is certainly a final bet. [34:00] It's by far not my favorite bet.”
Ozzy Diaz defeated Djorden (Jordan) Santos by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC 313. (Unanimous decision loss for Santos)
“So I'm going to buy a plus 180.”
Manel Kape defeated Asu Almabayev by TKO at 2:16 of Round 3; Almabayev ML loses. (Kape def. Almabayev, TKO R3 2:16)
“we like the over one and a half at slight plus money”
Cody Brundage stopped Julian Marquez by TKO at 4:45 of Round 1, so the fight did not reach 1.5 rounds; the over loses. (Brundage def. Marquez, TKO R1 4:45)
“So, yeah, Haider Emil, plus 170.”
Hyder Emil defeated William Gomis by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Almabayev, Mar 1 2025. (Split decision win for Emil)
“hyder mill over 0.5 takedown so to land any takedown plus 215”
Hyder Amil landed a takedown in Round 3 en route to a split-decision win over Gomis. (Amil 1 takedown landed)
“The other one, same exact prop, Sam Patterson coming into his”
Patterson won by R1 KO via counter punches with no takedown; landed 0 takedowns. (Patterson def. Barlow KO R1 (3:10))
“So because of that, I'm taking Andrea Lee at plus 180 to finally convince the judges to give her one of these fights.”
JJ Aldrich defeated Andrea Lee by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC Fight Night 253, Mar 1 2025. (Unanimous decision loss for Lee)
“And then on the other side of that, Luana Carolina, who is fighting Montana De La Rosa,”
Luana Carolina vs Montana De La Rosa was scratched from UFC Vegas 103 after Carolina missed weight — fight never happened. (Bout cancelled (missed weight))
“And I'd rather just take a half unit on his money line at plus 225”
Song Yadong defeated Henry Cejudo by technical decision after the fight was stopped following Round 3 due to an accidental eye poke; Cejudo ML loses. (Yadong def. Cejudo, technical decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28))
“So Brendan Allen pre-fight, you could even go Brendan Allen round one and then try to come back”
Anthony Hernandez defeated Brendan Allen by unanimous decision (29-28 x3); Allen ML loses. (Hernandez def. Allen, unanimous decision)
“I took plus 230 last night.”
Modestas Bukauskas KO'd Rafael Cerqueira at 2:12 of Round 1; Cerqueira ML loses. (Bukauskas def. Cerqueira, KO R1 2:12)
“you're going to go ahead and take Walker inside the distance at plus 275.”
Walker lost to Menifield by split decision; did not win inside the distance. (Lost split decision; went distance)
“absolutely love the Gene Silva submission It makes all the sense in the world”
Jean Silva won by R1 TKO via strikes, not submission. (TKO R1, 4:15 (strikes))
“Ricky Simone, plus three and a half points at minus 140 in a three round fight.”
Ricky Simon knocked out Javid Basharat at 3:15 of Round 1, a decisive win that covers the Simon +3.5 line. (Simon def. Basharat, KO R1 3:15)
“I'm splitting my bet, so I've got half of a unit on Petroski, half, or to win half on this one, and they're going to engage each other with the grappling to an extent.”
Petroski beat Vieira by unanimous decision; did not win in rounds 1 or 2. (Petroski def. Vieira UD (29-28 x3))
“Billy's bet, which is Shabazian to win in rounds one or two at plus 115.”
Edmen Shahbazyan beat Dylan Budka by TKO at 1:35 of Round 1 (within rounds 1 or 2). (TKO R1, 1:35, UFC Vegas 102)
“We are in alignment on one prop in particular. That's Cody Steele by submission at plus 380. Billy, I want to let you talk about this fight a little bit more in depth because you also like Steele on the money line as well.”
Kody Steele lost to Rongzhu by unanimous decision; no submission win. (Rongzhu def. Steele UD (30-27 x3))
“I saw you put Prado in as your best bet at 2-1 because I feel like I never see you take an underdog as your best bet. So we're in agreement on Francisco Prado here.”
Jake Matthews defeated Francisco Prado by unanimous decision (30-27 x3); Prado ML loses. (Matthews def. Prado, unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27))
“So to answer your question more directly finally I say anywhere about plus 120 or so [7:38] I would take Imovov. [7:39] I like the decision angle.”
Nassourdine Imavov knocked out Israel Adesanya in Round 2 at UFC Fight Night Riyadh (Feb 1, 2025); Imavov's moneyline won. (Imavov def. Adesanya by KO, Rd 2)
“So you're taking Shara minus three and a half at plus 110”
Michael 'Venom' Page upset Shara Magomedov via unanimous decision at UFC Riyadh (Feb 1, 2025), handing Magomedov his first pro loss; since Magomedov didn't even win the fight, the -3.5 handicap bet on him lost outright. (Page def. Magomedov, unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28))
“I can't not bet Bogdan [20:58] grad here. It's been really weird line movement”
Bogdan Grad TKO'd Lucas Alexander in Round 2 (elbows/punches from mount) in his Octagon debut; Grad ML wins. (Grad def. Alexander, TKO, R2 4:22)
“I took Vinicius [43:53] Olivera against Saeed Nurmagomedov at plus 164 earlier in the week.”
Vinicius Oliveira defeated Said Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) in a Fight of the Night; Oliveira ML wins. (Oliveira def. Nurmagomedov, unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28))
“I got plus 330 on Sarukian earlier in the week. I only did a quarter unit, and I'll explain why in a second, but if we see plus 300, I'd fist pump in another three quarters of unit.”
Tsarukyan withdrew from UFC 311 with a back injury the day before the event; Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan never happened (Makhachev instead submitted late replacement Renato Moicano), so this moneyline never settled. (Tsarukyan pulled (injury); Makhachev def. Moicano by submission, Rd 1)
“So I like Umar at plus 300 inside the distance.”
Merab Dvalishvili beat Umar Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision (fight went the distance). (UFC 311: Merab def. Umar UD)
“Billy, you're joining me on that one, right? Yeah, 100%.”
Tagir Ulanbekov defeated Clayton Carpenter by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC 311, handing Carpenter the first loss of his career. (Ulanbekov def. Carpenter, unanimous decision)
“So I would play Darius' anything plus money. I'm not trying to get cute here.”
Dariush vs. Moicano was scrapped after Moicano was bumped up to a short-notice fight with Makhachev when Tsarukyan withdrew; Dariush did not compete at UFC 311, so this moneyline never settled. (Fight canceled; Dariush did not fight at UFC 311)
“this one i just immediately bet to win”
Jiri Prochazka defeated Jamahal Hill by TKO in Round 3 at UFC 311; Hill's moneyline lost. (Prochazka def. Hill by TKO, Rd 3, 3:01)
“So you're still getting, I think minus one 10 is the best on day Raider. It been bouncing around a little bit anything inside of minus one 20 or so I taking them straight up”
Reinier de Ridder defeated Kevin Holland by first-round submission at UFC 311; de Ridder's moneyline won. (de Ridder def. Holland by submission, Rd 1, 3:31)
“i like bernardo sopaj inside the distance at two to one”
Bernardo Sopaj beat Ricky Turcios by unanimous decision (went the distance). (UFC 311: Sopaj def. Turcios UD)
“And then the other one I'm on is Rinya Nakamura to pick up a finish at plus 180.”
Rinya Nakamura lost to Muin Gafurov by unanimous decision; no finish for Nakamura. (UFC 311: Gafurov def. Nakamura UD)
“i really like the lions i like the lions spread i put in our [42:06] show show sheet i like alt spreads up to six and a half”
SF 34, DET 40 — Detroit Lions margin +6 vs line -3; covers.
“Yeah, so I definitely tailed your to be knocked down and win.”
Tailed bet; Jake Paul won by decision but was not knocked down. (No knockdowns in the main event.)
“The other one I really like is Jake Paul by decision. at plus 320 I got it at.”
Jake Paul beat Mike Tyson by unanimous decision. (Scores 80-72, 79-73, 79-73.)
“I like Jon Jones by knockout at plus 135 Stipe has always been hard to submit I don see Jon Jones submitting him”
Jon Jones won by TKO (spinning back kick) in round 3. (TKO at 4:29 of round 3.)
“One other fun bet I like on this though is a point to be deducted at plus 2000. I'm putting one-tenth of a unit on that.”
No point deducted in Jones-Miocic; ended via clean TKO round 3.
“First one, Eduarda Mora, she's plus 122, taking on Veronica Hardy.”
Eduarda Moura defeated Veronica Hardy by unanimous decision at UFC 309; Moura's moneyline hit. (Moura def. Hardy, unanimous decision)
“Other one I like, Jonathan Martinez at plus 124.”
Marcus McGhee defeated Jonathan Martinez by unanimous decision at UFC 309; Martinez's moneyline lost. (McGhee def. Martinez, unanimous decision)
“I took Basil Hafez early in the week at plus 180 line is now blown out all the way into plus 240”
Oban Elliott knocked out Basil Hafez in round 3 at UFC 309; Hafez's moneyline lost. (Elliott def. Hafez by KO, R3 0:40)
“the other one i'm taking is the under two and a half which is also plus money at plus 124 both guys are cardio liabilities both guys can hit hard”
Miller-Jackson ended by submission at 2:44 of round 1, well under the 2.5-round total. (Fight ended R1 2:44 (under 2.5 rds))
“also taking Chris Weidman or Eric Anders to have a point deducted at plus 2000.”
Weidman-Anders bout was cancelled at UFC 309; Anders withdrew last-minute.
“Braham I plus 122. both guys are grapplers i think brahama is the better one”
Ramiz Brahimaj knocked out Mickey Gall in round 1 at UFC 309; Brahimaj's moneyline hit. (Brahimaj def. Gall by KO, R1 2:55)
“So because of that, I like the minus 5.5.”
Caio Borralho defeated Jared Cannonier by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night (Vegas 96); Borralho -5.5 cashes. (Borralho def. Cannonier, unanimous decision (49-45, 49-45, 48-46))
“minus 120 or so, whatever the best you can get, [37:47] I'm still more than okay with.”
Tabatha Ricci defeated Angela Hill by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 96; Ricci ML (-120) cashes. (Ricci def. Hill, unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28))
“100 with you on yontop i got him at plus 210 gave that one out my luck ratings”
Viacheslav Borshchev defeated James Llontop by split decision at UFC Vegas 96; Llontop ML (+210) loses. (Borshchev def. Llontop, split decision (30-27, 29-28, 28-29))
“Billy, you're taking Neil Magny on the point spread, [45:36] plus three and a half at a big juicy number against Michael Morales.”
Michael Morales TKO'd Neil Magny in round 1 at UFC Vegas 96; Magny +3.5 loses (Magny lost outright, finished inside distance). (Morales def. Magny, TKO (elbow/punches), R1 4:39)
“my actual best bet is probably the reach here on top. [52:45] I put in here Mirshart in round three plus eighteen hundred.”
Meerschaert won by arm-triangle submission in Round 2, not Round 3. (Meerschaert sub R2 4:12)
“but if I have to which I kind of do I'm taking Adesanya on the money line”
Dricus Du Plessis submitted Israel Adesanya via rear-naked choke in round 4 to retain the title. (Du Plessis def. Adesanya, submission (RNC) R4 3:38)
“I feel like that plus 150 at BetMGM is generous on the Cara France side.”
Kai Kara-France defeated Steve Erceg via first-round TKO at UFC 305; Kara-France ML (+150) cashes. (Kara-France def. Erceg, TKO (punches), R1 4:04)
“Yeah, you sold me on Leach.”
Carlos Prates knocked out Li Jingliang in round 2 at UFC 305; Li Jingliang ML loses. (Prates def. Li Jingliang, KO (punch), R2 4:02)
“I like Casey O'Neill at plus 128. [27:09] Another luck ratings pick that I got at a much higher price earlier in the week.”
Casey O'Neill defeated Luana Santos by unanimous decision at UFC 305; O'Neill ML (+128) cashes. (O'Neill def. Santos, unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26))
“Opening bout, Stewie Nickel inside the distance”
Stewart Nickel lost by R1 guillotine to Aguilar — his inside-the-distance prop loses. (Jesus Aguilar def. Nickel via guillotine at 2:39 of R1)
“Tai Tuivasa by knockout at plus 270.”
Tuivasa lost a split decision to Rozenstruik — KO prop loses. (Rozenstruik def. Tuivasa via split decision)
“Dan Hooker by knockout, plus 800, I think even plus 900 points.”
Hooker won by split decision, not KO — KO prop loses. (Dan Hooker def. Gamrot via split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28))
“My best bet is also Dan Hooker plus three and a half with the exact same logic.”
Dan Hooker defeated Mateusz Gamrot by split decision (fight went the distance, no finish) at UFC 305; Hooker +3.5 cashes. (Hooker def. Gamrot, split decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29))
“So at plus 140, I like that on the Tibera side.”
Marcin Tybura lost to Sergei Spivak by first-round armbar submission. (Spivak def. Tybura, submission R1 1:44)
“So I'm taking Chepe in round three or by decision at plus [15:34] 140.”
Mariscal won by unanimous decision — 'round 3 or by decision' prop hits. (Mariscal def. Jackson via unanimous decision)
“i've got jonata denise at plus 175 for those that don't know his”
Jhonata Diniz defeated Karl Williams by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28). (Diniz def. Williams, unanimous decision)
“You can get this one to end in knockout. [25:32] Either guy at minus 135,”
Fight went to split decision, not a KO — bet loses. (Danny Barlow def. Veretennikov via split decision (29-28, 27-30, 29-28))
“But Chelsea Chandler, plus 125.”
Yana Santos defeated Chelsea Chandler by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28). (Santos def. Chandler, unanimous decision)
“Billy you have a better feeling on just taking a side Yeah I do I think Figueredo”
Deiveson Figueiredo defeated Marlon Vera by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27). (Figueiredo def. Vera, unanimous decision)
“I just don't see this wide of a split between them. One guy's plus 300.”
Kaue Fernandes TKO'd Muhammad Yahya in round 1 (4:45). (Fernandes def. Yahya, TKO R1 4:45)
“And then the other one which Sean will also get to later is Mihal Oloshek at plus 210”
Shara Magomedov defeated Mikhail Oleksiejczuk by unanimous decision, improving to 14-0. (Magomedov def. Oleksiejczuk, unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28))
“but I'm just taking the knockout at plus 140, covering all the rounds.”
Murzakanov won by KO — any-round KO prop hits. (KO at 3:18 of Round 2)
“So I put 9 tenths of a unit on Lupe at plus 110 [33:47] to win roughly one unit”
Mackenzie Dern defeated Lupita Godinez by unanimous decision. (Dern def. Godinez, unanimous decision (29-28 x3))
“14 to 1 on a knockout, I love that. So I put 9 tenths of a unit on Lupe at plus 110 [33:47] to win roughly one unit and then, you know, sprinkled 0.1 on her knockout prop.”
Godinez lost a unanimous decision to Mackenzie Dern — no KO, bet loses. (Dern def. Godinez via unanimous decision (29-28 x3))
“I like Leon Edwards by decision at plus 100.”
Belal Muhammad beat Leon Edwards by unanimous decision at UFC 304; Edwards lost. (Muhammad UD 48-47, 48-47, 49-46.)
“Bilal plus five and a half is minus 110. So [10:15] I prefer that to his money line.”
Belal Muhammad won the fight outright, which automatically covers the +5.5 underdog spread. (Muhammad def. Edwards by unanimous decision, 48-47 48-47 49-46)
“But Blades in the decision-only market at minus 140, I think he should be like minus 1,000 in the decision.”
Tom Aspinall KO'd Curtis Blaydes in Round 1 at UFC 304; fight did not reach a decision. (Aspinall KO R1 (1:00).)
“I [32:39] just last night put in the round three slash decision bat on Nathaniel Wood.”
Nathaniel Wood won by unanimous decision at UFC 304; round 3/decision bet cashes. (Wood UD 29-27, 29-27, 29-28.)
“love g rod here i've been [28:31] on him all week”
Gregory Rodrigues beat Christian Leroy Duncan by unanimous decision, so the Rodriguez ML won. (Rodrigues def. Duncan by unanimous decision, 30-27 30-27 30-27)
“But I like Mohamed Mokayev at minus 155 [41:16] against Manel Kopp.”
Muhammad Mokaev beat Manel Kape by unanimous decision, so the Mokaev ML won. (Mokaev def. Kape by unanimous decision, 29-28 29-28 30-27)
“I am, and largely just because I think it does go to a decision, so I want the extra 25 cents of payout.”
Tavares vs. Park was scrapped from the July 20, 2024 card after Park failed to get medical clearance at weigh-ins; the bet's event never happened as scheduled (the pairing was later rebooked for Oct 12, 2024, where Park won by split decision). (Bout canceled pre-fight; rescheduled UFC Fight Night 244 (10/12/24), Park def. Tavares by split decision)
“Other one I like Thomas Peterson is plus 110 against Muhammad Usman”
Thomas Petersen defeated Mohammed Usman by unanimous decision, so the Petersen ML won. (Petersen def. Usman by unanimous decision, 30-27 30-27 30-27)
“i'm looking at steve garcia i'm kind of torn between inside the distance and even money and knockout at plus 125”
Steve Garcia won by TKO (R1) over Seung Woo Choi at UFC Vegas 94. (Garcia TKO R1 1:36)
“and you can bet minus 130 against Kurt Hollibaugh, which I will take without any other information.”
The Ofli-vs-Holobaugh pairing never took place on the July 20, 2024 card — Holobaugh instead fought and beat Kaynan Kruschewsky by decision, and Ofli didn't fight again until Aug 24, 2024 (a loss to Mairon Santos). The specific matchup wagered on never happened. (Holobaugh def. Kruschewsky by unanimous decision (Ofli was not on the card))
“And then I also betting under two and a half rounds at minus 120 Again it 78 years of combined age both coming out off knockout losses”
Muslim Salikhov defeated Santiago Ponzinibbio by split decision over the full 3 rounds, going over the 2.5-round total.
“and we're getting plus money on the grappler side i would prefer this fight not to be at elevation to make those bets but it's still plus 124 so i'll still take it”
Montel Jackson knocked out Da'Mon Blackshear (transcribed 'Demond Blackshear') with a left hand at 0:18 of Round 1.
“So I like Vann inside the distance at plus 400.”
Josh Van lost; Charles Johnson TKO'd him in round 3. (Johnson def. Van KO R3 0:20)
“Also part of it, I got Petrosky at plus money earlier in the week. That was in my luck ratings.”
Andre Petroski defeated Josh Fremd by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night Denver.
“Love the plus 132, though. I would take that.”
Alex Pereira knocked out Jiri Prochazka with a head kick at 0:13 of Round 2, retaining the light heavyweight title.
“So to get plus money on Smith against a middleweight, I feel like that's a fairly solid price.”
Roman Dolidze defeated Anthony Smith by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC 303.
“is the under 1.5 at around plus 150.”
Payton Talbott knocked out Yanis Ghemmouri in just 19 seconds of Round 1, well under 1.5 rounds.
“But yeah, I'm with Sean 100% on that one.”
Ian Garry defeated Michael 'Venom' Page by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC 303.
“He's now minus 102, which again, I don't love. Was hoping to still get plus money on but would definitely take it at minus 102.”
Jean Silva knocked out Charles Jourdain in Round 2 at 1:22 of UFC 303.
“So D-Rod around plus 200, that line's falling. So you probably want to get on there fast.”
Kelvin Gastelum defeated Daniel Rodriguez by unanimous decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC on ABC 6, June 22, 2024. (Gastelum def. Rodriguez, unanimous decision)
“The other one I like, Nicholas Dalby plus 295.”
Rinat Fakhretdinov defeated Nicolas Dalby by split decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29) at UFC on ABC 6, June 22, 2024. (Fakhretdinov def. Dalby, split decision)
“I also, if you can get the point spread on certain books, plus three and a half for Nicholas Dalby, that's still plus money.”
Dalby lost a very close split decision to Fakhretdinov (aggregate judges' scores 86-85); the alt-line fight spread of +3.5 for the underdog easily covers a 1-point aggregate scorecard margin. (Fakhretdinov def. Dalby, split decision 29-28/29-28/28-29 (aggregate margin ~1 pt))
“so I think you take Pavlovich round”
Pavlovich lost by unanimous decision to Volkov; did not win round 1. (Volkov def. Pavlovich UD)
“The one I'm looking at is Moon Gaffer off by knockout or inside the distance. I'm sorry. Plus two 40.”
Muin Gafurov (the 'Gadzhiyasanov/Moon Gaffer' pick) won but by unanimous decision over Kyung-Ho Kang, not by KO/inside distance. (Gafurov def. Kang UD (30-27 x3))
“so we were getting lee at plus money i like that i would still bet him at”
Chang-Ho Lee defeated Xiao Long (listed in event data as 'Lone Zhao') at UFC on ABC 6, June 22, 2024. (Lee def. Xiao Long)
“what ultimately tipped me towards van and i'm playing his money line at plus 180”
Tagir Ulanbekov missed weight by 3.5 lbs and the bout with Joshua Van was cancelled at weigh-ins; the fight never happened, so the moneyline bet cannot settle. (Bout cancelled — Ulanbekov missed weight (129.5 lbs))
“Bet her at plus 190 early in the week. She's all the way down to plus 155.”
On this UFC Vegas 93 card, Josefine Knutsson's actual opponent was Julia Polastri (event data lists 'Julija Stoliarenko'); Knutsson won a unanimous decision (29-28 x3), so the underdog side of that fight lost. (Knutsson def. Polastri, unanimous decision 29-28 x3)
“i like this fight to end by knockout at minus 130”
Quinlan vs Fugitt went to a split decision; no KO/TKO finish. (Fugitt def. Quinlan by split decision)
“i think at this price i just like the money line he can finish those ground and pounds”
Brady Hiestand submitted Garrett Armfield via rear-naked choke at 1:52 of Round 3 at UFC Vegas 93. (Hiestand def. Armfield, submission R3 1:52)
“that I'll take the minus 120 on Imavov.”
Nassourdine Imavov defeated Jared Cannonier by TKO (strikes) in round 4, the UFC Louisville main event. (Imavov def. Cannonier, TKO, R4 1:34)
“So two that I like, Cody Stammen, perfect example of what we're talking about, likely to go to a decision.”
Taylor Lapilus (listed in event data as Erosa) defeated Cody Stamann by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC on ESPN 57 (Louisville), June 8, 2024. (Lapilus def. Stamann, unanimous decision 30-27 x3)
“The other one I really, really like here is Jesse Butler. He's moved all the way up to plus 500.”
Brad Katona defeated Jesse Butler by unanimous decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC on ESPN 57, June 8, 2024. (Katona def. Butler, unanimous decision)
“So I like the minus 130 on the under one and a half just because it's better odds than Fajeda by knockout”
Brunno Ferreira finished Dustin Stoltzfus by TKO (spinning elbow) at 4:51 of Round 1 at UFC on ESPN 57, well under the 1.5-round line. (Ferreira def. Stoltzfus, TKO R1 4:51)
“I like Zach Reese at plus 120 There is a lot of unknowns in this fight”
Zachary Reese knocked out Julian Marquez via TKO (punches) just 20 seconds into Round 1 at UFC on ESPN 57. (Reese def. Marquez, TKO R1 0:20)
“Poirier. I could still get him around plus 450, somewhere in that region. I'd take it. Not a big”
Dustin Poirier lost to Islam Makhachev by submission (D'Arce choke) at UFC 302; Makhachev retained the lightweight title. (Makhachev def. Poirier, submission (D'Arce choke), R5 2:42)
“My thought is Paulo Costa by KO around plus 350 And then again followed by that Sean Strickland live bet”
Costa lost to Strickland by split decision at UFC 302; no KO. (Strickland def. Costa, split decision)
“I'm fully with him on Jocelyn Edwards.”
Joselyne Edwards lost her UFC 302 bout by unanimous decision (opponent was actually Ailin Perez, not Mariya Agapova, who was not on this card). (Ailin Perez def. Joselyne Edwards, unanimous decision)
“Rowe at plus money. Wouldn't take him as a favorite here. It just feels like an overreaction to a very”
Phil Rowe lost to Jake Matthews by unanimous decision at UFC 302. (Jake Matthews def. Phil Rowe, UD 29-28/29-28/30-27)
“Sean, but I was surprised his under two and a half takedowns line was at plus money earlier in the”
Almeida landed one takedown then took the back for an R1 RNC finish; under 2.5 takedowns cashes. (1 takedown, sub at 2:27 R1)
“yeah I really like him in the decision only market at plus 130 super durable”
Khaos Williams won by KO in round 1; decision-only bet lost. (KO 1:30 of R1 over Carlston Harris)
“I like KS to finish too.”
Khaos Williams won by KO (overhand right) in round 1 over Carlston Harris. (KO at 1:30 of R1)
“I like Tamera Svidal.”
Tamires Vidal ("Tamara Vidal") lost to Melissa Gatto by TKO (body punch) at UFC Vegas 92. (Melissa Gatto def. Tamires Vidal, TKO, R3 0:37)
“um i like it slight underdog money alatang healy fighting cladson rodriguez i don't love alatang”
Alatengheili defeated Kleydson Rodrigues ("Cladson Rodriguez") by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 92. (Alatengheili def. Kleydson Rodrigues, UD 30-27/30-27/29-28)
“which is brahimae by submission at plus 190 very similar thoughts to”
Ramiz Brahimaj lost to Themba Gorimbo by unanimous decision; no submission win.
“but getting the plus money on Ruzaboyev is enough for me.”
Joaquin Buckley defeated Nursulton Ruziboev by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-26, 29-27) at UFC Fight Night St. Louis; Ruziboev lost. (Buckley def. Ruziboev, UD 30-27, 30-26, 29-27)
“I like Chase Hooper, Chase the Dream, plus 120. Love him at lightweight.”
Chase Hooper defeated Viacheslav Borshchev by submission (D'Arce choke) at 3:00 of Round 2 at UFC Fight Night St. Louis. (Hooper def. Borshchev, submission R2 3:00)
“ko is minus 165 that should just be his money line he's not going to win a decision outside of”
Robelis Despaigne lost to Waldo Cortes-Acosta by unanimous decision; no KO and no win. (Cortes-Acosta UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26))
“I like Tabitha Ricci's money line at minus 140 here.”
Tabatha Ricci defeated Tecia Torres by split decision at UFC Fight Night St. Louis. (Ricci def. Torres, split decision)
“and then i also like uh tabitha ritchie to finish this fight at plus 400”
Tabatha Ricci won by split decision; the fight went the distance, so she did not finish it. (Ricci split decision over Tecia Pennington)
“matash rombecki at minus 140 matash rombecki inside the distance at minus 140 sean alluded”
Mateusz Rebecki lost to Diego Ferreira by late TKO in Round 3, so he did not win inside the distance. (Ferreira TKO R3 4:51 over Rebecki)
“I kind of like the point spread where you can get that bet at minus five and a half.”
Pantoja won by decision only, with a combined judges' margin of 5 points (48-47, 48-47, 49-46 = +1/+1/+3), short of covering the -5.5 round/point spread, so the Pantoja spread bet lost. (Combined judges' margin 5 pts vs -5.5 needed to cover)
“So then to get more than two to one odds at the under two and a half, that feels like”
The Aldo-Martinez bout went the full 3-round distance to a unanimous decision, so total rounds fought landed Over 2.5; the Under 2.5 rounds bet lost. (Fight went all 3 rounds to a decision)
“Yeah, real quick, I do like Borjas as well.”
Alessandro Costa defeated Kevin Borjas by TKO (strikes) at 1:35 of Round 2 at UFC 301; Borjas lost. (Costa def. Borjas, TKO R2 1:35)
“But the other non-Brazilian I'm on is Ernesto Carasetti”
Dione Barbosa defeated Ernesta Kareckaitė by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC 301; Kareckaite lost. (Barbosa def. Kareckaite, UD 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
“I like Michel Pajeda in round one at plus 120.”
Michel Pereira beat Ihor Potieria by submission in Round 1 at UFC 301. (Pereira sub (guillotine) R1 0:54)
“yeah he's nine and one as a professional all 10 of his”
Mauricio Ruffy knocked out Jamie Mullarkey in Round 1 at UFC 301. (Ruffy KO/TKO (strikes) R1 4:42)
“i'm going to cover my bases with”
Caio Borralho finished Paul Craig by KO in Round 2 at UFC 301 (inside the distance). (Borralho KO R2 2:10)
“I think as it stands now I going to go with the Perez finish only market pretty much the same price which implies that both guys have roughly equal finishing equity here”
Alex Perez KO'd Matheus Nicolau in Round 2; win inside the distance cashed. (Perez def. Nicolau via KO, R2 (2:16).)
“So if you don want to pay the juice I kind of like Silva inside the distance [12:35] She's never won a decision in her career.”
Karine Silva beat Ariane Lipski by unanimous decision, not inside the distance. (Silva def. Lipski via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28).)
“I think Figlack is a solid favorite Wish I would have bet him at minus 150 or so earlier in the week [31:20] Totally fine with minus 175.”
Austin Hubbard defeated Michał Figlak by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC Vegas 91; Figlak lost. (Hubbard def. Figlak, UD 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
“So I taking Brendan Allen inside the distance at plus 130 Sean teed up a lot of it but that was the last time Brendan Allen lost was two and a half years ago against Chris Curtis”
Brendan Allen won by split decision; fight went the full distance. (Allen def. Curtis SD (5 rds), UFC Vegas 90)
“But we're getting at a plus money, so I'm going to take that.”
Cesar Almeida TKO'd Dylan Budka in Round 2 in his UFC debut at UFC Vegas 90. (Almeida def. Budka via TKO, R2, 2:13)
“that's Nora Cornell. Her knockout odds are plus 1100, which I just do not understand against Melissa Mullins”
Nora Cornolle beat Melissa Mullins by TKO (knees/kicks) in Round 2. (Cornolle def. Mullins TKO R2 3:06)
“Probably have half a unit or so on her money line It also you know around plus 300”
Norma "Nora" Cornella TKO'd Melissa Mullins with head kicks in Round 2 at UFC Vegas 90. (Cornella def. Mullins via TKO, R2, 3:06)
“Yeah, I'm looking at Chepe Mariscal. You can get him slight plus money still.”
Chepe Mariscal won a split decision (29-28, 27-30, 29-28) over Morgan Charriere at UFC Vegas 90 (Fight of the Night). (Mariscal def. Charriere, split decision)
“so i'm going to take a little bit of a sprinkle on emers in round one you can get as high as plus 600 i think he's going to knock land we're out”
Jamall Emmers lost via R1 TKO to Nate Landwehr; did not win in Round 1. (Landwehr def. Emmers, TKO R1 (4:43))
“don't hate the look on petroski's money line just because the price on the money line does seem a little wide”
Jacob Malkoun TKO'd Andre Petroski in round 2 at UFC Atlantic City (Mar 30, 2024).
“this is one i also took earlier in the week in my luck ratings slightly better price not not massive movement”
Chidi Njokuani beat Rhys/Reese McKee by split decision at UFC Atlantic City (Mar 30, 2024).
“one you know it was even better price earlier in the week i got minus 115 again read the luck ratings everyone”
Ibo Aslan TKO'd Anton Turkalj in round 3 at UFC Atlantic City (Mar 30, 2024).
“I 100% see the same argument for you betting Herbert Burns to win in round one at plus 900. That seems like the vast majority of his win equity”
Herbert Burns lost via R2 TKO to Julio Arce; did not win in Round 1. (Arce def. Burns, TKO R2 (2:00))
“and to get you know connor matthews at plus money early in the week roughly pick him now”
Dennis Buzukja TKO'd Connor Matthews in Round 3 at UFC Atlantic City (Mar 30, 2024); Matthews ML loses. (Buzukja def. Matthews via TKO (punches), R3, 0:22)
“Billy and I both on the underdog side of this matchup”
Rose Namajunas beat Amanda Ribas by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 89 (Mar 23, 2024).
“No, I'm definitely taking Peyton Talbot here.”
Payton Talbott TKO'd Cameron Saaiman in round 2 at UFC Vegas 89 (Mar 23, 2024).
“But if these lines were reversed, I would take Lima plus money too.”
Igor Severino was disqualified for biting Andre Lima in round 2 at UFC Vegas 89 (Mar 23, 2024); official result is a loss for Severino.
“hit on Miles Johns and why you believe he's actually undervalued as the favorite in this fight”
Miles Johns beat Cody Gibson by unanimous decision (30-27 x3) at UFC Vegas 89 (Mar 23, 2024).
“Round one at BetMGM is plus 350.”
Justin Tafa lost via unanimous decision to Karl Williams; no Round 1 finish. (Karl Williams def. Tafa, UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28))
“So that's really what puts me over to his side here,”
Marcin Tybura submitted Tai Tuivasa via rear-naked choke at 4:08 of Round 1 at UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs Tybura on March 16, 2024. (Tybura def. Tuivasa, submission R1 4:08)
“So plus 250 on the inside the distance if you shop around.”
Bryan Battle vs Ange Loosa ruled a No Contest after an accidental eye poke in Round 2; inside-the-distance prop voided. (No Contest, R2 eye poke)
“My favorite of those is Jacqueline Amorim. She's around plus 145.”
Jaqueline Amorim submitted Cory McKenna via armbar in Round 1 (1:38) at UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs Tybura on March 16, 2024. (Amorim def. McKenna, submission (armbar) R1 1:38)
“all of those things on Jafel Philo, I think he can get as good as minus 155 now.”
Jafel Filho submitted Ode' Osbourne via rear-naked choke at 4:27 of Round 1 at UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs Tybura on March 16, 2024. (Filho def. Osbourne, submission (RNC) R1 4:27)
“Small sprinkle on goes to decision at plus 750 The thought on that is if it goes over one and a half”
Fight ended in R4 TKO (doctor stoppage), did not reach a decision. (Rozenstruik def. Gaziev via TKO (doctor stoppage) R4 5:00)
“The price we're seeing now, plus 160, don't really have a particular method of victory. [5:21] I could see a knockout is, you know, kind of a short, stocky guy with some big power, [5:24] but also likes takedown. [5:26] So plus 160 is enough for me.”
Loik Radzhabov defeated Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady by KO (punches) at 0:49 of Round 3 at UFC Vegas 87. (Radzhabov def. Al-Selwady, KO R3 0:49)
“Billy, you're going with a fighter to win inside the distance is your best bet this week. [9:40] I am, yeah. [9:40] It's just this is more it's not even like a technical read. [9:44] It's just I can't believe the difference between his money line and his inside the distance. [9:47] and that's Eric Anders who's coming up around like minus 500 in some spots now [9:51] not quite but getting there and then plus 130 plus 135 depending on where you look [9:56] inside the distance against Jamie Pickett”
Anders won but by unanimous decision, not inside the distance. (Eryk Anders def. Jamie Pickett via unanimous decision (29-27, 29-28, 29-28))
“And then at BetMGM, Ortega inside the distance at plus 200.”
Ortega beat Rodriguez inside the distance by submission in Round 3. (Submission (arm triangle) R3, 0:58)
“If we expect this to be a stand-up, you know, back-and-forth brawl between two light guys, probably don't hurt each other too bad.”
Felipe dos Santos defeated Victor Altamirano by split decision at UFC Mexico City on Feb 24, 2024. (dos Santos def. Altamirano, split decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28))
“took Rosas at minus 260 earlier in the week with this plan already in place”
Rosas Jr. fell ill and withdrew from the Feb 24, 2024 UFC Mexico City card before the bout occurred; the fight was rebooked to a different event (UFC on ESPN 57, June 8, 2024, Louisville) roughly 3.5 months later, so the bet on the scheduled Mexico City bout never settles. (Bout scratched from card; rebooked for June 8, 2024 (Rosas Jr. later won by submission))
“So I'm going to be actively rooting against my own bet here. I'm wearing my Volkomania shirt, but I've got Topuria at slight plus money.”
Ilia Topuria knocked out Alexander Volkanovski in round 2 (3:32) at UFC 298. (KO, Round 2, 3:32)
“Best I saw, I mean, we saw better odds a little bit earlier in the week, but yeah, 205, 210, totally fine with it.”
Merab Dvalishvili defeated Henry Cejudo by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC 298. (Dvalishvili W (unanimous dec.))
“I'll take the plus 330 or so inside the distance, about half a unit on Kapilov.”
Roman Kopylov lost — Anthony Hernandez submitted him in Round 2. (Hernandez def. Kopylov via RNC R2, 3:23)
“because I am taking Danny Barlow by knockout at plus 160. He's fighting Josh Quinlan.”
Danny Barlow beat Josh Quinlan by TKO (punches) in Round 3. (TKO (punches) R3, 1:18)
“It's kind of just the last one, but she should win this one pretty easily.”
Miranda Maverick defeated Andrea Lee by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC 298. (Maverick W (unanimous dec.))
“I think I'm going over two and a half rounds at plus 125.”
Jack Hermansson defeated Joe Pyfer by unanimous decision after the fight went the full 5 rounds at UFC Vegas 86, clearing the 2.5-round total. (Decision, 5 rounds)
“The only other pre angle I think I prefer Vieira inside the distance at plus 150 over his submission”
Vieira finished Petrosyan by submission in R1 — inside the distance hits. (Submission (arm triangle) R1, 4:48)
“Love the under two and a half here at plus money, plus 150.”
Daniel Marcos vs. Aoriqileng was ruled a No Contest after a series of accidental groin strikes ended it in round 2 at UFC Vegas 86; per standard sportsbook rules, total-rounds bets are voided when a fight is declared a no contest. (No Contest (accidental foul), Round 2, 3:28)
“I just like Wells here.”
Max Griffin defeated Jeremiah Wells by split decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29) at UFC Vegas 86. (Wells L (split dec.))
“I took Delidze by finish only, right around even money.”
Dolidze lost; Imavov won by majority decision (no finish for Dolidze). (Imavov def. Dolidze MD (49-44, 47-47, 48-46))
“So that leaves me no choice I got to take the money line straight up Think he wins”
Renato Moicano defeated Drew Dober by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 85 (same fight as the Zerillo pick). (Moicano def. Dober, unanimous decision (29-28 x3))
“And Carolina has very long limbs and is just, like, begging to get armbarred.”
Stoliarenko lost (TKO R3 to Luana Carolina); no armbar/submission win. (Luana Carolina def. Stoliarenko TKO R3 4:52)
“Markel Medeiros knockout plus 220.”
Mederos won but by unanimous decision, not by knockout. (Mederos def. Quinones UD (29-28 x3))
“pretty fair price in the minus 140s depending on when”
Aliaskhab Khizriev vs. Makhmud Muradov was ruled a No Contest after an accidental eye poke 11 seconds into round one, so the moneyline bet never had a decision and refunds as void. (No Contest (eye poke) R1 0:11)
“thomas peterson in the opener minus 165 another guy i think is a legit prospect taking on jamal pogues”
Jamal Pogues defeated Thomas Petersen by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) at UFC Vegas 85. (Petersen L (dec., 29-28/29-28/30-27))
“But my favorite bet here is just the Gon money line.”
Ciryl Gane beat Sergey (Serghei) Spivak via TKO at 3:44 of Round 2 at UFC Fight Night Paris; the Gane ML (-178) won. (Gane def. Spivak via TKO, R2 3:44)
“a plus 140 underdog, I like that.”
Ange Loosa beat Rhys McKee by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC Fight Night Paris; the McKee ML (+140) lost. (Loosa def. McKee via unanimous decision)
“I'm looking at Clayton Rodriguez.”
Rodrigues lost to Farid Basharat by arm-triangle submission at 4:15 of R1; fight ended well under 3.5 rounds. (Submission R1, 4:15)
“but at even money, I'm definitely taking that.”
Nora Cornolle beat Joselyne Edwards by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC Fight Night Paris; the Cornolle ML (even) won. (Cornolle def. Edwards via unanimous decision)
“sprinkle on that too but the money line at minus 130 I don't want to get cute could he catch him”
Anthony Smith defeated Ryan Spann via split decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28). (Smith def. Spann, SD)
“nothing about Lucas Breski that I'm super excited about, but there's a big fade for me on Cortez”
Waldo Cortes-Acosta KO'd Lukasz Brzeski at 3:01 of Round 1 at UFC Fight Night Singapore (Aug 26, 2023); the Breschke ML lost. (Cortes-Acosta def. Brzeski via KO, R1 3:01)
“if I'm making a pre fight bet on that, it's Chikadze in round three or by decision at minus 115.”
Giga Chikadze defeated Alex Caceres by unanimous decision (30-27 across all judges) at UFC Fight Night Singapore on August 26, 2023 — the pick was Chikadze in round 3 or by decision (BJPenn.com). (Chikadze UD 30-27 x3)
“yeah going with my props god style pick rinyu nakamura plus 600 by submission”
Rinya Nakamura defeated Fernie Garcia by unanimous decision (not by submission) at UFC Fight Night Singapore on August 26, 2023; the pick was Nakamura by submission in round 1 (CageSidePress). (Nakamura UD 30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
“I'm going with Santos' money line at plus 125.”
Erin Blanchfield defeated Taila Santos by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC Fight Night Singapore; the Santos ML (+125) lost. (Blanchfield def. Santos via unanimous decision, 29-28 x3)
“So in terms of betting it, yep, knockout prop, love that.”
Zhang Weili defeated Amanda Lemos by unanimous decision at UFC 292 — Lemos did not win by KO/TKO, per Yahoo Sports. (UD 50-43 50-44 49-45)
“Don't mind her money line as it stands. And then we'll probably look to hedge off with Wiley live after a couple rounds if Lemos hurts her but doesn't finish her.”
Zhang Weili dominated Amanda Lemos via unanimous decision (50-43, 50-44, 49-45) to retain the strawweight title. (Zhang def. Lemos, UD)
“What I really love, though, is on spots where you can bet the spread is Neil Magny plus 3.5. That basically means he just needs to win one round.”
Ian Garry dominated Neil Magny 30-26, 30-26, 30-24; combined judges' point differential (14) far exceeds the 3.5 spread, so Magny's underdog spread did not cover. (Garry def. Magny, UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-24))
“my favorite way to play this one, again, if you have access to spread bets, is Munoz plus three and a half.”
Marlon Vera won by decision 30-27, 30-27, 29-28; combined judges' point differential (7) exceeds the 3.5 spread, so Munhoz's underdog spread did not cover. (Vera def. Munhoz, UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28))
“but really like Karini Silva, minus 140. Can't believe this is not a longer line.”
Karine Silva submitted Maryna Moroz via guillotine choke at 4:59 of round 1. (Silva def. Moroz, submission R1 (4:59))
“So if you can get him at plus money, which it's been bouncing around all week. I like his money line. I think you can find some 105s right now.”
Vicente Luque defeated Rafael dos Anjos via unanimous decision (49-46, 48-47, 48-47). (Luque def. Dos Anjos, UD)
“What I really like, though, is Luque in four or five or by decision, just because I do think if Dos Anjos has to wrestle, has to take him down over and over, I can see Dos Anjos running out of gas here.”
Vicente Luque defeated Rafael dos Anjos by unanimous decision (49-46, 48-47, 48-47) over five rounds at UFC Vegas 78, per Cage Side Press. (UD 49-46 48-47 48-47)
“loved this one earlier in the week it was plus 170 plus 175 still like it at plus 150”
Khalil Rountree Jr. TKO'd Chris Daukaus at 2:40 of round 1. (Rountree def. Daukaus, TKO R1 (2:40))
“I'm going to go with the decision no bet line on Cub Swanson, which means if a decision for either fighter happens, you get your bet refunded.”
Cub Swanson defeated Hakeem Dawodu by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC Vegas 78; the 'decision no-bet' prop refunds when the fight ends by any decision, so this settles as a push, per MMA Mania. (UD 29-28 x3)
“really anytime we can get a fairly heavily favored heavyweight at decent plus money plus 175 that feels like the way to play it just because we know the finish rate for heavyweights is so much higher”
Martin Buday submitted Josh Parisian via kimura in round 1 (4:11) at UFC Vegas 78, winning inside the distance, per Cage Side Press. (Sub (kimura) R1 4:11)
“So plus 205, fine with laying that juice, probably about a half unit for me here.”
Jaqueline Amorim TKO'd Montserrat Ruiz in round 3 at 3:41. (Amorim def. Ruiz, TKO R3 (3:41))
“So I'm going to take a small sprinkle at Rob Font in round one.”
Cory Sandhagen defeated Rob Font by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night Nashville on August 5, 2023; Font did not win in round one, per MMAmania.
“I also like under four and a half at minus 118.”
Cory Sandhagen defeated Rob Font by unanimous decision (50-45 x3), meaning the 5-round main event went the full distance — over the 4.5-round total. (Sandhagen def. Font, UD 50-45 x3 (full 5 rounds))
“but the line has dropped enough at [19:37] minus 150 that i think the money line is the better play here”
Dustin Jacoby knocked out Kennedy Nzechukwu via TKO in round 1 at UFC Fight Night Nashville. (Jacoby def. Nzechukwu, TKO R1)
“to go with officially diego lopez inside the distance diego lopez is the archetype of something”
Diego Lopes submitted Gavin Tucker via armbar at 1:38 of round one at UFC Fight Night Nashville on August 5, 2023, winning inside the distance, per MMAmania.
“And I'm for an O-betting Jeremiah Wells money line. [38:36] So I'm not going to stop now.”
Carlston Harris submitted Jeremiah Wells via anaconda choke at 1:50 of round 3. (Harris def. Wells, submission R3 (1:50))
“Still okay with a plus 130. This is what I've been on all week. I tweeted on Monday. This was my, you know, CLV play of the week when he was plus 145 or so.”
Michel Pereira vs. Stephen Thompson at UFC 291 was canceled — Pereira missed weight by 3 lbs and the bout never happened. (Bout canceled due to Pereira missing weight; never contested)
“So just take the money line at minus 105 with those two coming together could also see a Paheya live angle after the first round if Jan has some success with the grappling”
Alex Pereira defeated Jan Blachowicz via split decision at UFC 291. (Pereira def. Blachowicz, split decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29))
“And we're getting plus 150 on this one to go over two and a half rounds. So that's my first of the two best bets.”
Kevin Holland submitted Michael Chiesa (D'Arce choke) at just 2:39 of Round 1 at UFC 291 — the fight ended well short of the 2.5-round over line. (Holland def. Chiesa, submission R1 2:39 (fight distance: ~1 round))
“so michael kiesa round three or decision at plus 250 kind of like that one for a little bit longer odds but the safer pick the one i feel a little bit better about is over two and a half rounds at plus 150”
Kevin Holland choked out Michael Chiesa with a D'Arce choke at 2:39 of round one at UFC 291 on July 29, 2023; Chiesa did not win in round three or by decision, per CBS Sports.
“so if tyberra wasn such a juicy underdog i would probably go with what sean recommending but i more than happy just take the money line [7:35] at plus 360 you know not a huge bet a little bit of a sprinkle on it”
Tom Aspinall defeated Marcin Tybura by TKO (punches) at 1:13 of Round 1 at UFC London. (Aspinall def. Tybura, TKO R1 1:13)
“so just seeing [14:11] what one guy really likes to do well against the weakness of someone else and we're getting plus [14:15] money i like ash moose could also play as knockout props”
Aaron Aby did not appear on the UFC London (July 22, 2023) card at all — no Aaron Aby vs. Chris Duncan bout ever took place. The actual card featured Chris Duncan vs. Yanal Ashmouz (Duncan won by unanimous decision); the transcript's 'plus money... Ashmouz' reference suggests the pick was actually on Ashmouz, but as recorded ('Aaron Aby ML') the fighter/matchup never occurred, so it cannot settle. (No such fight occurred; card had Duncan def. Ashmouz by unanimous decision)
“and then my other one is josh cooley bow [14:33] um he's fighting larone murphy”
Lerone Murphy defeated Josh Culibao by decision at UFC London. (Murphy def. Culibao, unanimous decision)
“But I'm happy getting him in round three or by decision at minus 110.”
Nathaniel Wood defeated Andre Fili by unanimous decision at UFC London on July 22, 2023, satisfying the 'round 3 or by decision' condition, per Cage Side Press.
“Sandual is offering a bet at plus 155 where you win if Paul Craig gets his submission or Andre Muniz, his opponent, gets a TKO.”
Paul Craig defeated Andre Muniz via second-round TKO (elbows) at UFC London on July 22, 2023; Craig won by TKO (not submission) and Muniz did not get a TKO, so neither winning condition was met, per MMAmania.
“just like Zerlo with [32:15] Roberts I take him to probably bet him at minus 125 minus 130 the minus 110 on FanDuel just feels [32:21] like a gift.”
Jafel Filho defeated Daniel Barez by submission (arm-triangle choke) at 3:26 of Round 1 at UFC London. (Filho def. Barez, submission R1 3:26)
“the other bet I'm making on it, a little bit more [8:29] fun, is this fight to go to a split or a majority decision, just because of what I've talked [8:33] about.”
Bueno Silva won by submission in round 2, not by split or majority decision — per MMAmania / Combat Press. (SUB R2 0:38)
“But I was very glad when I had my Lutz pick in here to see that I wasn't the only one thinking that way.”
Melsik Baghdasaryan beat Tucker Lutz via unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 77. (Baghdasaryan def. Lutz, unanimous decision (29-28 x3))
“So a couple of angles I looking at just this fight and over to go over one and a half rounds is plus 170”
Della Maddalena vs. Hafez went the full 3-round distance (split decision), clearing the over 1.5 rounds line. (Fight went 3 full rounds to a split-decision verdict)
“the other one that i like and now we seeing it pop up more and more is half as his spread at plus three and a half is plus 270 out there in the [25:10] market”
Della Maddalena won by split decision with a combined judges' score of 86-85 (margin of 1) over Hafez, well within the +3.5 cushion. (Combined scorecards: Della Maddalena 86 - Hafez 85 (margin 1, covers +3.5))
“I'm still more than happy with the minus 115.”
Francisco Prado TKO'd Ottman Azaitar in Round 1 at UFC Vegas 77 (the actual bout replacing the listed Payan/Azaitar pairing). (Prado def. Azaitar, TKO (punches), R1 4:05)
“marcine pratchnio he's fighting vitor petrino and this is kind of”
Vitor Petrino submitted Marcin Prachnio (arm-triangle choke) in Round 3 at UFC 290. (Petrino def. Prachnio, submission (arm-triangle), R3 3:42)
“So for that reason, I'm taking the under two and a half at minus 148.”
Aguilar knocked out Ross via one-punch KO at just 17 seconds of round 1, well under 2.5 rounds — per Yahoo Sports / Cage Side Press. (KO R1 0:17)
“And then my other one, I'm going DDP, Drick is Duplessis,”
Du Plessis stopped Whittaker by TKO in round 2, a finish inside the distance — per CBS Sports. (TKO R2 2:23)
“minus 132 on fan duel right now i'd still take but it's stretching”
Alonzo Menifield submitted Jimmy Crute via guillotine choke in Round 2 at UFC 290. (Menifield def. Crute, submission (guillotine), R2 1:55)
“So I looking to [7:38] the decision no bets or finish only props. You can get Magomedov at minus 126 on those props.”
Magomedov did not finish Strickland — Strickland won by TKO in round 2, so the finish-only prop on Magomedov lost, per UFC.com. (Strickland TKO R2)
“So getting the plus 250, plus 260 on BSD. [11:25] Very glad someone else was on it because I thought I was just missing something.”
Benoit Saint-Denis submitted Ismael Bonfim via rear-naked choke in Round 1 (4:48) at UFC Vegas 76. (Saint-Denis W by submission, R1 4:48)
“money line. He's also going to be my prop squad pick, which we're going to lean into in a second.”
Grant Dawson defeated Damir Ismagulov via unanimous decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC Vegas 76; Ismagulov lost. (Dawson W by UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27))
“So you can get as low as minus 190 on Renat. [26:38] I pointed that out in the luck ratings. [26:40] Didn't think that would last.”
Rinat Fakhretdinov submitted Kevin Lee (guillotine) at 0:55 of Round 1 at UFC Vegas 76. (Fakhretdinov def. Lee, submission (guillotine choke), R1 0:55)
“happy to take him at plus 140 earlier in the week. Very excited at the plus 180 we can get now.”
Jack Jenkins defeated Jamall Emmers via split decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC Fight Night Jacksonville. (Jenkins W by split decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28))
“I couldn't believe when I saw the under two and a half was plus 150 or so.”
Mateusz Rebecki finished Loik Radzhabov by TKO in Round 2 at 2:36 at UFC Fight Night Jacksonville, ending before Round 3 — under 2.5 rounds hit. (Rebecki W by TKO, R2 2:36 (under 2.5))
“You can get Marsicle in round three or by decision at plus 410.”
Jose "Chepe" Mariscal defeated Trevor Peek by unanimous decision (30-27 all three cards). (Mariscal def. Peek, unanimous decision 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
“Amanda Hibis by decision at plus 105. I think,”
Amanda Ribas lost to Maycee Barber by TKO in Round 2 (Ribas did not win, let alone by decision). (Barber def. Ribas by TKO, Round 2, 3:42)
“That's why I'm going to my favorite, you know, FanDuel betting option, where you can get four [6:43] or five rounds four, rounds five, or by decision, if any of those happen, plus 110 on Vittori.”
Jared Cannonier defeated Marvin Vettori via unanimous decision (49-45, 49-45, 48-46) at UFC Vegas 75 on June 17, 2023; Vettori did not win in rounds 4, 5, or by decision (MMA Mania). (Cannonier UD (49-45, 49-45, 48-46))
“but at plus 162, I'm more than happy just covering the money or taking the money line initially.”
Nicolas Dalby defeated Muslim Salikhov via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC Vegas 75. (Dalby W by UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28))
“the lines are released the best bet is probably on under two and a half that's minus 130 love that”
Sabatini finished Almeida by submission in Round 2 at 1:48, ending the fight before the start of Round 3 — under 2.5 rounds hit. (Fight ended R2 1:48 (under 2.5))
“and her her submission line is plus 460 which just seemed [15:19] really long given how heavy of a money line favorite she is”
Tereza Bleda defeated Gabriella Fernandes (not Natalia Silva) via unanimous decision (30-27 x3) at UFC Vegas 75 on June 17, 2023; the win was not by submission (CageSidePress). (Bleda UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27))
“i also like her inside the [15:47] distance sign at plus 200 because unlike her theoretical namesake here she does go for a lot [15:53] of ground and pound”
Tereza Bleda defeated Gabriella Fernandes via unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 75 on June 17, 2023; the win was by decision, not inside the distance (CageSidePress). (Bleda UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27))
“But since we're already getting plus money, I'm just going to play the money line, [20:44] especially in the plus 130s that are out there.”
Armen Petrosyan defeated Christian Leroy Duncan via unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC Vegas 75. (Petrosyan W by UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28))
“rankings but he just has a couple of advantages here i think the technical striking against mark”
Marc-Andre Barriault defeated Eryk Anders via unanimous decision (30-27 x3) at UFC 289. (Barriault W by UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27))
“So just because I so split on those methods I fine with the money line I slid a little bit away from what I liked it at earlier in the week You can still get like”
Charles Oliveira defeated Beneil Dariush via TKO (punches) at 4:10 of Round 1 at UFC 289. (Oliveira W by TKO, R1 4:10)
“I'm officially going with Dan Ige by knockout at plus 170.”
Dan Ige defeated Nate Landwehr by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) at UFC 289 on June 10, 2023; Ige won but not by knockout (MMAmania). (Ige UD 30-27 / 29-28 / 29-28)
“my best bet going with chris curtis money line sean hit on a lot of the points that i was”
Chris Curtis vs. Nassourdine Imavov at UFC 289 was ruled a No Contest after an accidental headbutt/eye-poke clash at 3:04 of Round 2; moneyline bet voids with no winner. (Ruled No Contest, R2 3:04)
“so plus 180 not going to be a huge bet for me but just kind of playing the”
Daniel Santos defeated Johnny Munoz Jr. by unanimous decision (29-27, 29-27, 29-27) at UFC Vegas 74.
“minus 130 is still fine i'd probably play him to about minus 150 before it scared me off not sure”
Don'Tale Mayes knocked out Andrei Arlovski by TKO at 3:17 of Round 2 at UFC Vegas 74.
“hill by decision is my like quote unquote official play”
Mackenzie Dern defeated Angela Hill by dominant unanimous decision (49-43, 49-44, 49-44) at UFC Vegas 73 on May 20, 2023 (UFC.com). (Dern won all 5 rounds on all cards)
“So I'll still take it at plus 175.”
Anthony Hernandez defeated Edmen Shahbazyan (Edmund Shabazian) by TKO at 1:01 of Round 3 at UFC Vegas 73.
“as far as my prop I looking at Chase Hooper inside the distance at plus 200”
Chase Hooper defeated Nick Fiore by unanimous decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC Vegas 73; the fight did not end inside the distance (UFC.com). (Hooper won UD, no finish)
“I looking at Vanessa Demopolis at slight plus money And it another like age slash progression play”
Karolina Kowalkiewicz defeated Vanessa Demopoulos by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC Vegas 73.
“i think brown is should be the a side here despite being plus money”
Matt Brown knocked out Court McGee at 4:09 of Round 1 at UFC on ABC 4.
“was another luck rankings fight that i mentioned still like it at minus 115 obviously would have”
Tainara Lisboa submitted Jessica-Rose Clark (rear-naked choke) at 4:20 of Round 3 at UFC on ABC 4.
“being not his best self that's roughly your edge I think in the Sterling side so minus 111 I like”
Aljamain Sterling defeated Henry Cejudo by split decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47) at UFC 288, retaining the bantamweight title. (Sterling def. Cejudo, split decision)
“so i'm going to bet him in rounds four or five or by decision at plus 200”
Gilbert Burns lost by unanimous decision (50-45, 49-46, 49-46) to Belal Muhammad in five rounds at UFC 288 on May 6, 2023; Burns did not win in rounds 4/5 or by decision (CBS Sports). (Burns lost UD in 5 rounds)
“by first round KO at plus 340.”
Parker Porter defeated Braxton Smith by TKO (ground and pound) in round 1 at UFC 288 on May 6, 2023; Smith did not win by first-round KO (Cage Side Press). (Porter TKO R1 2:10)
“so drew dover knockout minus 110 this one almost certainly going to be a knockout”
Matt Frevola stopped Drew Dober by TKO in round 1 at UFC 288 on May 6, 2023; Dober did not win by KO (MMA Mania). (Frevola TKO R1 4:08)
“i'm also playing the knockout odds at plus 210 i'm gonna have both the money line and the knockout i think it's probably the likelier way that song wins this”
Song Yadong defeated Ricky Simon by TKO (strikes) at 1:10 of Round 5. (Song Yadong def. Ricky Simon via TKO, R5 1:10)
“at plus 160 I'm kind of banking in that Waldo Cortez Acosta has developed a little bit more here than we've seen in his last couple fights.”
Waldo Cortes-Acosta lost to Marcos Rogerio de Lima by unanimous decision (29-28 all). (de Lima def. Cortes-Acosta, unanimous decision)
“I'm looking at Adolfo to finish this one by submission.”
Rodolfo (Adolfo) Vieira submitted Cody Brundage via arm-triangle choke at 1:28 of Round 2. (Vieira def. Brundage via submission, R2 1:28)
“i think horth was even plus money when it was first announced now she's in the minus 150 range i just think hayley cohen is not good”
Jamey-Lyn Horth defeated Hailey Cowan by unanimous decision (29-28 x3). (Horth def. Cowan, unanimous decision)
“Silva has all the finishing upside, both on the ground and standing.”
Bruno Silva defeated Brad Tavares by TKO (knee and punches) at 3:35 of round 1 at UFC Vegas 71. (Silva def. Tavares, TKO R1 3:35)
“i actually like this fight to end in split or majority decision at plus 600”
Bruno Silva defeated Brad Tavares by TKO (knee and punches) at 3:35 of Round 1 at UFC Vegas 71 — not a split or majority decision (BJPenn.com).
“I'm just taking her round one line. It's as high as plus 600.”
Priscila Cachoeira vs. Karine Silva was cancelled from UFC Vegas 71 after Cachoeira missed weight by four pounds and Silva declined to accept a catchweight bout (Bloody Elbow).
“you can get over plus 150 on one side of it. This is like a half unit bat for me [8:07] on Arnold Allen.”
Arnold Allen lost to Max Holloway by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night Kansas City. (Holloway def. Allen, unanimous decision)
“I really like Pedro [9:56] Munoz at plus 176.”
Pedro Munhoz defeated Chris Gutierrez at UFC Fight Night Kansas City. (Munhoz def. Gutierrez)
“when we can get the plus money and, you know, the 150 range on Edson, that's just too good to pass up.”
Edson Barboza knocked out Billy Quarantillo with a knee in round 1 (Fight of the Night). (Barboza def. Quarantillo, KO (knee) R1)
“i'm looking at uh tanner bozer in round three or by decision at plus 250 on sandal”
Ion Cutelaba stopped Tanner Boser by TKO in Round 1 (2:05) at UFC Fight Night Kansas City; the fight did not reach Round 3 or go to decision, per MMAmania.
“I do like the raw dog, Brandon Roy Val. He's plus one 60 on sandal.”
Brandon Royval knocked out Matheus Nicolau with a knee at 2:09 of round 1. (Royval def. Nicolau, KO (knee) R1 2:09)
“I'm with Sean. [10:07] I'm also going to play the inside the distance. [10:08] Five rounds is a long time for a guy like that with so much power.”
Alex Pereira lost by KO to Israel Adesanya in Round 2 at UFC 287; Pereira did not finish the fight inside the distance, per CBS Sports.
“Steve Garcia is about, I think we got him at plus 155, [14:18] somewhere in there, depending on where you look.”
Steve Garcia finished Shayilan Nuerdanbieke with body shots (TKO) in Round 2 (0:36) at UFC 287. (Garcia TKO2 (0:36))
“plus 700 on a knockout line for a guy who pretty much only wins by a knockout is a real [16:02] good price”
Gilbert Burns defeated Jorge Masvidal by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC 287; Masvidal did not win by KO, per CBS Sports.
“I'm going to bet Rosas inside the distance at slight plus money, about plus 120.”
Christian Rodriguez defeated Raul Rosas Jr. by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC 287; the fight did not end inside the distance, per MMAmania.
“Luana Pinero, I wrote her up in the luck rankings. [26:40] I was shocked that we could get her at minus 165 last week when I wrote it up.”
Luana Pinheiro defeated Michelle Waterson-Gomez by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) at UFC 287. (Pinheiro def. Waterson-Gomez, split decision)
“you get all three of those options at fan duel at plus 330 very similar to the over two and a half”
Cory Sandhagen defeated Marlon Vera by split decision over 5 rounds at UFC Fight Night San Antonio; Vera did not win in rounds 4, 5, or by decision (per MMA Mania). (Sandhagen def. Vera SD)
“He's somewhere in the plus 170, plus 180 range against Nate Landwehr.”
Nate Landwehr submitted Austin Lingo via rear-naked choke in Round 2 (4:11). (Landwehr sub R2 (4:11))
“so I'm going to go half a unit each on cop in round one and Perez by decision.”
The Manel Kape vs Alex Perez bout was cancelled mid-event after Perez suffered a seizure during his pre-fight warmup; no contest took place (per Bloody Elbow).
“so I'm going to go half a unit each on cop in round one and Perez by decision.”
The Manel Kape vs Alex Perez bout was cancelled mid-event after Perez suffered a seizure during his pre-fight warmup; no contest took place (per Bloody Elbow).
“but you can get him by knockout at plus 120 or inside the distance at plus 110”
Albert Duraev defeated Chidi Njokuani by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) at UFC Fight Night San Antonio; Njokuani did not win by KO or inside the distance (per Cage Side Press). (Duraev def. Njokuani SD)
“But gun to my head for this one, I'm going with Trevon Giles at minus 110,”
Trevin Giles defeated Preston Parsons by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28). (Giles SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28))
“under four and a half is [8:09] plus 152 on fan duel”
Leon Edwards defeated Kamaru Usman by majority decision after 5 full rounds at UFC 286; the fight went the distance, so under 4.5 rounds lost (per CBS Sports). (Edwards def. Usman MD 48-46, 48-46, 47-47)
“but I'm going with Delizze at plus 225.”
Marvin Vettori defeated Roman Dolidze by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) at UFC 286. (Vettori dec. (29-28, 29-28, 30-27))
“I'm looking at Fazeev by knockout, plus 140, as you mentioned.”
Justin Gaethje defeated Rafael Fiziev by majority decision at UFC 286; Fiziev did not win by KO/TKO (per CBS Sports). (Gaethje def. Fiziev MD)
“a fight that really reminds me of [23:53] that is Casey O'Neill versus Jennifer Maia.”
Jennifer Maia defeated Casey O'Neill by unanimous decision at UFC 286, handing O'Neill her first pro loss. (Maia dec. (30-27, 29-28, 29-28))
“the bet i'm making on it is jan in rounds four rounds five or by decision you know [6:59] the fan duel multiple rounds that's minus 120”
Merab Dvalishvili defeated Petr Yan by unanimous decision (50-45 x3); Yan did not win in rounds 4, 5, or by decision — Dvalishvili won (UFC.com / CBS Sports).
“I'm going with Tony Gravely, which actually works nicely off of Sean's pick.”
Victor Henry defeated Tony Gravely by split decision (30-27, 28-29, 29-28) at UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili. (Henry def. Gravely, split decision)
“Tyson Nam, plus 170, love him this week.”
Bruno Silva defeated Tyson Nam via technical submission (rear-naked choke) at 1:23 of round 2 at UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili. (Silva def. Nam, technical submission, R2 1:23)
“so I'm looking at [19:24] him to win in either of the first two rounds at plus 250 on FanDuel”
Nikita Krylov defeated Ryan Spann by submission (arm-triangle choke) in Round 2 at UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili; Spann did not win, so 'Spann to win in round 1 or 2' lost (UFC/Wikipedia event results).
“So his inside the distance line, though, on Dumas is still minus 125. I think that's a massive value”
Josh Fremd submitted Sedriques Dumas via guillotine choke at 3:00 of round 2; Dumas was not the one finishing inside the distance (per UFC.com). (Fremd sub Dumas R2 3:00)
“Shevchenko in rounds four, rounds five, or by decision is plus 120. [13:11] That's my favorite way of playing it.”
Alexa Grasso upset Valentina Shevchenko with a rear-naked choke submission in round 4 to win the flyweight title at UFC 285 on Mar 4, 2023 — Shevchenko did not win in rounds 4/5 or by decision (CBS Sports). (Grasso W, sub (RNC) R4)
“So if I can get plus 210 on someone that no one knows anything about and his opponent, [15:58] I'm going to take it.”
Loik Radzhabov defeated Esteban Ribovics by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC 285. (Radzhabov def. Ribovics, UD 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
“Turner opened around plus 140 across the industry. Get him as high as plus 185 right now. [20:41] If that movement keeps continuing, we might even see plus 200 by fight night. [20:45] I'm comfortable with the 180 range that we're seeing now.”
Mateusz Gamrot defeated Jalin Turner by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27) at UFC 285. (Gamrot def. Turner, split decision)
“I'm looking at the Ian Gary Machado versus Kenan Song fight that one's plus [23:37] 230 to go to a decision”
Ian Garry defeated Kenan Song by TKO in round 3 at UFC 285 on Mar 4, 2023 — fight did not go to decision (DraftKings Network). (Garry W, TKO R3 4:22)
“but minus 120 feels like a very strong pick on her, [28:41] just based on the directions their careers are heading”
Amanda Ribas defeated Viviane Araujo by unanimous decision (29-27, 30-26, 30-27) at UFC 285. (Ribas def. Araujo, UD)
“take his inside the distance or for even better odds at FanDuel Span in any of the first three rounds is plus 195”
Nikita Krylov withdrew from UFC Vegas 70 due to food-borne illness before the fight occurred; the Krylov vs. Spann bout was cancelled (Fansided UFC Vegas 70 results).
“I would make Mays a favorite here. So a plus 110, that's just a gift.”
Augusto Sakai defeated Don'Tale Mayes by unanimous decision (30-27 x3) at UFC Vegas 70. (Sakai def. Mayes, UD 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
“His inside the distance line is around plus 300. You could even go round one at plus 600 if you wanted to juice it a little bit more.”
Ode Osbourne defeated Charles Johnson via split decision at UFC Vegas 70 on Feb 25, 2023 — fight went the distance, not inside the distance (CageSidePress). (W, split decision)
“Billy going with Eileen Perez at minus 102 is his best bet.”
Ailin Perez's UFC Vegas 70 bout with Hailey Cowan was scrapped the day before the event after Cowan fell ill; no replacement opponent was found, so the fight never happened.
“I'm riding with Blanchfield. The line has moved tremendously her way.”
Erin Blanchfield submitted Jessica Andrade via rear-naked choke in round 2 (1:37) at UFC Fight Night 219 (Vegas 69). (Blanchfield def. Andrade, submission, R2 1:37)
“I think does not go to a decision at plus 108 at FanDuel right now.”
Yair Rodriguez submitted Josh Emmett via triangle choke in round 2 at UFC 284, meaning the fight did not go to a decision (CBS Sports). (Rodriguez sub (triangle) R2 4:19)
“win in either round one or round two you get both at plus 270”
Alonzo Menifield vs Jimmy Crute ended as a majority draw after a point deduction in round 3 at UFC 284 — Menifield did not win in any round (Cage Side Press). (Majority draw 29-27, 28-28, 28-28)
“Basically a coin flip, I'll take that.”
Josh Culibao submitted Melsik Baghdasaryan via rear-naked choke in round 2 at UFC 284. (Culibao def. Baghdasaryan, submission, R2 2:02)
“I took Oliveira earlier in the [6:08] week at plus 160. As Sean pointed out, you know, a month or so ago, you could get almost plus 200 [6:13] in certain places. So, you know, I still like him at plus 142 or whatever we're seeing him at”
Islam Makhachev submitted Charles Oliveira (arm-triangle choke, round 2) at UFC 280 to win the lightweight title.
“I really think Sterling's the sharper side of this one. [8:28] You know, we've seen the line move actually a little bit in that direction. [8:32] I would still take the minus 175.”
Aljamain Sterling defeated TJ Dillashaw via 2nd-round TKO at UFC 280 to retain the bantamweight title.
“So plus 270 by decision just seems weirdly long to me given the overall money line odds.”
Muhammad Mokaev defeated Malcolm Gordon by submission (armbar) late in Round 3 at UFC 280, not by decision. The 'Mokaev by decision' prop loses. Source: CageSidePress, MMAMania UFC 280 results. (Mokaev sub (armbar) R3)
“So just based on the overvaluing of the name here [21:41] I'm going to take Gadziev at plus 140 or so. [21:43] I'd play it down to about plus 120.”
Abubakar Nurmagomedov defeated Gadzhi Omargadzhiev via unanimous decision at UFC 280.
“I did the Gan in over nine and a half [6:34] minutes which is exactly in between the two that Sean said that's the lowest total you can get and [6:39] still get plus money on the Gan side so I'm going to have that”
Fight lasted 14:23 total (two full rounds plus a 4:23 finish in round 3), over the 9.5-minute total. (Total fight time: 14:23)
“but I'm definitely playing the Tai Tuivasa knockout odds I don't see why that's [6:21] not the exact same as his money line odds”
Tai Tuivasa did NOT knock out Ciryl Gane at UFC Paris on September 3, 2022. The result was the opposite: Ciryl Gane knocked out Tai Tuivasa via punches and body kicks in the third round (4:23 of round 3). Tuivasa dropped Gane in round 2 but Gane recovered and finished the fight. Source: CBS Sports, UFC.com fight results for UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa. (Gane KO Tuivasa, R3 (4:23))
“The one I'm going to talk about right now is Ailyn Perez, UFC debutante. [8:33] You can get her a plus 215 on FanDuel still.”
Stephanie Egger submitted Ailin Perez via rear-naked choke in Round 2 at UFC Paris. (Loss by submission, Round 2, 4:54)
“you can get at fan duel their fight to end inside the distance at minus [14:02] 142 which is definitely the most generous line on that”
The William Gomis vs Jarno Errens fight at UFC Paris on September 3, 2022 did NOT end inside the distance. The fight went to a majority decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-29), with Gomis winning. Errens nearly submitted Gomis with a triangle in round 2 but the fight went the full distance. Source: Cage Side Press, First Sportz UFC Paris results. (Gomis def. Errens, majority decision)
“Joaquin Buckley, he's now down to plus 200 at FanDuel. [20:05] And I still think that's a tremendous value.”
Nassourdine Imavov defeated Joaquin Buckley by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) at UFC Paris. (Loss by unanimous decision)
“I also on Marcin Tibera at plus 300 It just such a massive step up in competition for Alexander Romanov”
Marcin Tybura defeated Alexander Romanov by majority decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-28) at UFC 278. (Win by majority decision after 3 rounds)
“where I'm actually pretty excited to Jose Aldo, plus 120, plus 125 or so.”
Jose Aldo lost to Merab Dvalishvili by unanimous decision at UFC 278. (Loss by unanimous decision)
“So, yeah, plus 750 on figure 80, you know, 0.1, 0.2 unit bet”
Amir Albazi defeated Francisco Figueiredo by submission (rear-naked choke) at 4:34 of Round 1 at UFC 278 on Aug 20 2022. Figueiredo lost; he did not win inside the distance. Source: CageSidePress (https://cagesidepress.com/2022/08/20/ufc-278-amir-albazi-vs-francisco-figueiredo/) (Albazi sub (RNC) R1 4:34)
“I just can't see a flyweight fight at plus 180 to go to a [24:51] decision and not take that.”
Victor Altamirano defeated Daniel Da Silva by TKO (ground and pound) at 3:39 of Round 1 at UFC 278 on Aug 20 2022. The fight did not go to decision. Source: MMAmania.com (https://www.mmamania.com/2022/8/20/23314191/ufc-278-full-fight-video-highlights-results-mma-espn-salt-lake-ppv-altamirano-knockout-da-silva) (Altamirano TKO R1 3:39)
“you can get very by decision at plus 155 which just seems a little high to me against a fighter who”
Marlon Vera defeated Dominick Cruz by KO (head kick) at 2:17 of round 4, not by decision. (Source: CBS Sports, https://www.cbssports.com/mma/news/ufc-fight-night-highlights-results-marlon-vera-knocks-out-dominick-cruz-with-brutal-head-kick/) (Vera KO R4 2:17)
“But you can still find some 280s out there, [15:42] 275s all over the place. [15:44] So this is one I would definitely bet quick”
Gabriel Benitez TKO'd Charlie Ontiveros at 3:35 of Round 1. (Benitez def. Ontiveros, TKO R1 3:35)
“i'm looking at the over one and [18:11] a half it plus money it's like plus 104 plus 105 depending on where you look and it really is just [18:16] a bet on gm3 keeping this one competitive”
Fight (Silva vs Meerschaert) lasted into Round 3 (ended 1:39 of R3), well past the 1.5-round total. (Total rounds 3 > 1.5)
“So for plus 500, I really like Keshawaya inside the distance.”
Priscila Cachoeira defeated Ariane Lipski by TKO at 1:05 of Round 1 at UFC Fight Night (Vera vs Cruz) on Aug 13 2022. Cachoeira won inside the distance. Source: MMAmania.com (https://www.mmamania.com/2022/8/13/23304472/ufc-san-diego-full-fight-video-highlights-results-espn-mma) (Cachoeira TKO R1 1:05)
“I'm Jason Witt at plus 235.”
Josh Quinlan KO'd Jason Witt in Round 1 (2:09) at UFC San Diego (Aug 13, 2022); Witt lost outright. (Loss by KO, Round 1, 2:09)
“and minus 140 for his tko line i think if he wins [7:24] it it you know 80 90 chance that he wins it by knockout so that what i playing”
Jamahal Hill defeated Thiago Santos by TKO (strikes) at 2:31 of round 4. Hill won by TKO/KO as bet. (Source: CBS Sports, https://www.cbssports.com/mma/news/ufc-fight-night-results-highlights-jamahal-hill-scores-late-tko-over-thiago-santos-in-wild-brawl/) (Hill TKO R4 2:31)
“My favorite underdog is Miranda Granger. [10:28] She's at plus 185 on MGM is the best line.”
Cory McKenna submitted Miranda Granger at 1:03 of Round 2. (McKenna def. Granger, submission R2 1:03)
“So if I'm going to play it, I'll just take the four to one odds, lay like half a unit on it and, you know, hope Neil gets the decision.”
Geoff Neal defeated Vicente Luque by KO in round 3, not by decision. Neal became the first man to stop Luque with strikes. (Source: MMA Mania, https://www.mmamania.com/2022/8/7/23295035/ufc-vegas-59-results-vicente-luque-geoff-neal-espn-mma-apex) (Neal KO R3)
“so I'm targeting the under two and a half I just [17:22] think catch your his style kind of makes it so either she gets finished or her opponent does”
Priscila Cachoeira TKO'd Ariane Lipski at 1:05 of Round 1, under the 2.5-round total. (Cachoeira def. Lipski, TKO R1 1:05 (total rounds 1 < 2.5))
“And the best way I can see to bet that is the fight to start round two is plus 130.”
Terrance McKinney defeated Erick Gonzalez by submission (rear naked choke) at 2:17 of round 1. The fight did not start round 2; it ended in round 1. (Source: MMA Mania, https://www.mmamania.com/2022/8/6/23295145/ufc-vegas-59-full-fight-video-highlights-results-espn-mckinney-submission-gonzalez) (McKinney sub RNC R1 2:17)
“I think probably the sharpest way is Nunez inside the distance.”
Amanda Nunes defeated Juliana Pena by unanimous decision, not inside the distance. The fight went the full 5 rounds. (Source: CBS Sports, https://www.cbssports.com/mma/news/ufc-277-results-highlights-amanda-nunes-regains-bantamweight-title-with-thorough-beating-of-julianna-pena/live/) (Nunes UD R5)
“I'm going to have a pre-fight bet on car France inside the distance because plus 500 on that is just crazy.”
Brandon Moreno defeated Kai Kara-France by TKO (body kick) at 4:34 of round 3 at UFC 277. Kara-France did not win inside the distance. (Source: CBS Sports, https://www.cbssports.com/mma/news/ufc-277-results-highlights-brandon-moreno-shuts-down-kai-kara-france-with-body-kick-to-earn-interim-title/) (Moreno TKO R3 4:34)
“but my preferred line on that is just that the fight ends in round one at plus 200”
Nicolae Negumereanu defeated Ihor Potieria by TKO at 3:33 of round 2, not round 1. (Source: Cage Side Press, https://cagesidepress.com/2022/07/30/ufc-277-nicolae-negumereanu-vs-ihor-potieria/) (Negumereanu TKO R2 3:33)
“I think it's worth laying the minus 120 on Edwards.”
Joselyne (Jaslyn) Edwards defeated Ji Yeon Kim by split decision (28-29, 29-28, 30-27) at UFC 277. (Edwards SD Kim)
“You can get one side at plus 350. You know, that's the side I want to be on.”
Molly McCann defeated Hannah Goldy at UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall (London); McCann won Performance of the Night. (McCann def. Goldy)
“but I'll take the under two and a half at even money.”
Jack Hermansson defeated Chris Curtis via unanimous decision after the full 3 rounds, so the fight went past 2.5 rounds — the under loses. (Hermansson def. Curtis, unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27), fight went 3 rounds)
“I got Paul Craig by submission at plus 250 He opened at plus 150 on the money line”
Volkan Oezdemir defeated Paul Craig by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27). Craig did not win by submission despite multiple leg lock attempts. (Source: Cage Side Press, https://cagesidepress.com/2022/07/23/ufc-london-paul-craig-vs-volkan-oezdemir/) (Oezdemir UD R3)
“So when you can get him all the way up at plus 225, I got to take that.”
Paddy Pimblett submitted Jordan Leavitt via rear-naked choke in round 2 at UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall (London). (Pimblett def. Leavitt, submission (RNC) R2)
“So, yeah, Rodriguez plus 145, straight money line, Ortega at minus 170.”
Yair Rodriguez defeated Brian Ortega via TKO in round 1 (4:11) after Ortega dislocated his shoulder, at UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez. (Rodriguez def. Ortega, TKO R1 4:11 (shoulder injury))
“and you can get her about plus 180 [10:34] so that seems like a pretty easy one for me just given the layoff”
Lauren Murphy defeated Miesha Tate via unanimous decision at UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez. (Murphy def. Tate, unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28))
“You can get her inside the distance at plus 200.”
Amanda Lemos defeated Michelle Waterson-Gomez by submission (guillotine choke) in Round 2 at 1:48 at UFC Long Island, July 16 2022. Lemos won inside the distance. Source: Cage Side Press / MMAMania. (Lemos wins submission (guillotine) R2 1:48)
“So getting him at plus money, I can still see plus 144 at FanDuel right now. I think that's [22:55] a pretty good value.”
Li Jingliang defeated Muslim Salikhov via TKO in round 2 (4:38) at UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez. (Jingliang def. Salikhov, TKO R2 4:38)
“I think the best way to play it, if you want to be on the underdog side, is you can parlay RDA in the over three and a half at plus 300 on DraftKings.”
Parlay fails: Rafael Fiziev knocked out Rafael dos Anjos in round 5, so the RDA ML leg lost (the over 3.5 rounds leg alone would have won, but the parlay needs both legs). (Fiziev def. dos Anjos via KO, R5 0:18)
“but I am looking at Aleman Zahabi against [9:48] Ricky Tercios.”
Aiemann Zahabi defeated Ricky Turcios via unanimous decision at UFC on ESPN 39. (Zahabi def. Turcios, unanimous decision)
“So plus 190 is enough for me. [14:07] The plus 170 or so he opened at wasn't, [14:09] but I'm going to sprinkle a little bit on Petrosian.”
Caio Borralho defeated Armen Petrosyan via unanimous decision at UFC on ESPN 39. (Borralho def. Petrosyan, unanimous decision)
“i'm looking at the heavyweight fight between vandera and sherman [16:21] and doing something i almost never do which is betting this one to go to decision at plus 165”
Chase Sherman defeated Jared Vanderaa via TKO in Round 3 at 3:10 at UFC Vegas 58 — the fight did not go to decision. Source: CageSidePress / MMAMania. (Sherman TKO R3 3:10)
“So at minus 135, I'm pretty confident in Gore.”
Cody Brundage knocked out Tresean Gore in round 1 (3:50) at UFC on ESPN 39. (Brundage def. Gore, KO R1 3:50)
“And then the other one I looking at is Kennedy Nuzchekwu versus Carl Roberson”
Kennedy Nzechukwu defeated Karl Roberson via TKO in round 3 (2:19) at UFC on ESPN 39. (Nzechukwu def. Roberson, TKO R3 2:19)
“going to take a little bit of a sprinkle on cannoneer just there's enough angles where i [8:00] think that could go his way”
Israel Adesanya retained his title, beating Jared Cannonier via unanimous decision at UFC 276. (Adesanya def. Cannonier via unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 50-45))
“but you can get Volkanovsky [10:09] and over two and a half at minus 125 and I prefer that versus his uh decision line”
Volkanovski defeated Holloway by unanimous decision (50-45 x3) at UFC 276, going the full 5 rounds — over 2.5 rounds. Source: CBS Sports / MMAMania. (5 rounds, UD 50-45 x3)
“so with gabe green getting the line he is he's a super active striker he's [14:29] fought really tough competition he apparently got laser eye surgery like before his last fight”
Ian Garry beat Gabe Green via unanimous decision at UFC 276, moving to 10-0. (Garry def. Green via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27))
“so when you can get him at plus money plus 135 on [19:11] the inside the distance line I don't really see Turner lasting to win this by decision”
Jalin Turner defeated Brad Riddell by submission (guillotine choke) at 0:45 of Round 1 — a finish inside the distance. Source: MMAMania / Sherdog. (Turner sub (guillotine) R1 :45)
“but you can get Jim Miller by knockout at plus 310 on FanDuel, which just seems insane.”
Jim Miller defeated Donald Cerrone by submission (guillotine choke) in Round 2 at 1:32 — not a knockout. Source: CBS Sports / Bloody Elbow. (Miller sub (guillotine) R2 1:32)
“So Alex Pahey had even money. [27:03] I also like Pahey's knockout odds.”
Alex Pereira knocked out Sean Strickland in round 1 at UFC 276. (Pereira def. Strickland via KO, R1 2:36)
“And you can get him at Even Money as well. [27:41] I think he should be a pretty significant favorite here. [27:43] So both of those at Even Money are where I'm going.”
Bryan Barberena finished Robbie Lawler via TKO in round 2 at UFC 276. (Barberena def. Lawler via TKO (punches), R2 4:47)
“I'm looking at Vanessa Demopolis. She was about 230 plus 240 earlier in the week and is down to plus 195 now.”
Vanessa Demopoulos defeated Jinh Yu Frey via split decision at UFC Vegas 57. (Demopoulos def. Frey via split decision (30-27, 29-28, 28-29))
“with me being on Vieira, I'll take the plus 170 instead of betting his money line at 110 or 115 and wherever it's at.”
Rodolfo Vieira lost to Chris Curtis via unanimous decision, so the fight went the distance rather than Vieira winning inside it. (Curtis def. Vieira, unanimous decision (29-28 x3))
“i'm looking at carlos olberg versus uh taffon and chuck we to go to a decision at plus 152”
Carlos Ulberg (Olberg) TKO'd Tafon Nchukwi in round 1 at 1:15 at UFC Vegas 57 — the fight did not go to a decision. (Ulberg def. Nchukwi, TKO (punches), R1 1:15)
“I'm looking on the prelims where we've got Cody Durden fighting JP buys. This line's moved a little bit, but you can still get dirt and even money over at bed MGM at least at the time of recording”
Cody Durden stopped JP Buys via first-round TKO at UFC Vegas 57. (Durden def. Buys via TKO (punches), R1 1:08)
“prefer the underdog side of this fight what did i miss with josh emmett that has you backing his”
Josh Emmett edged Calvin Kattar via split decision in the UFC Austin main event. (Emmett def. Kattar via split decision (48-47, 48-47, 47-48))
“But, you know, Lozon really stands out.”
The Cerrone vs. Lauzon bout was scrapped on fight week (Lauzon withdrew with a non-weight-cut medical issue) and never took place, so the bet cannot settle. (Fight cancelled — no contest occurred)
“But we both like Holland”
Kevin Holland defeated Tim Means via submission (D'Arce choke) at 1:28 of Round 2 at UFC Austin. Holland won inside the distance. (MMAmania.com, BJPenn.com) (Holland sub (D'Arce) R2 1:28)
“Yeah, I'm looking at Jeremiah Wells against Court McGee.”
Jeremiah Wells knocked out Court McGee in round 1 at UFC Austin. (Wells def. McGee via KO, R1 1:34)
“you can get glover under one and a half takedowns that's what they've”
Glover Teixeira landed 5 takedowns in his UFC 275 fight against Prochazka, well over the 1.5 line. Under 1.5 takedowns loses. (ufcstats.com via sports-statistics.com) (Teixeira 5 takedowns landed)
“Malkoon is all the way up to plus 250 on DraftKings.”
Brendan Allen defeated Jacob Malkoun via unanimous decision at UFC 275 — Malkoun ML loses. (Allen def. Malkoun, unanimous decision (29-28 x3))
“So I think plus one to 45 is the best you can get on her. And I'm all over that on this one.”
Zhang Weili KO'd Joanna Jedrzejczyk with a spinning backfist at 2:28 of round 2 at UFC 275; Jedrzejczyk retired after the loss. (Zhang Weili def. Jedrzejczyk via KO (spinning backfist), R2 2:28)
“200 to go the distance and this is 115 pound female fight”
Silvana Gomez Juarez knocked out Liang Na (Naliang Li) in Round 1 at UFC 275. The fight did not go to the distance. (MMAmania.com, Yahoo Sports) (Silvana KO R1 1:22)
“I looking at Jake Matthews at plus 125 He fighting Andrea Fialo”
Jake Matthews knocked out Andre Fialho in round 2 at UFC 275. (Matthews def. Fialho via KO, R2 2:24)
“by TKO at plus 210 or inside the distance at plus 190 is my favorite”
Alexander Volkov defeated Jairzinho Rozenstruik by TKO (punches) at 2:12 of Round 1. Rozenstruik did not win by TKO. Source: MMA Mania (mmamania.com/2022/6/4/23154335/ufc-vegas-56-full-fight-video-highights-volkov-rozenstruik-results-espn-mma-knockout). (Volkov def. Rozenstruik TKO R1 2:12)
“But I'm looking at Carolina Kolek-Wix.”
Karolina Kowalkiewicz submitted Felice Herrig via rear-naked choke in Round 2 at UFC Vegas 56 — Kowalkiewicz ML cashes. (Kowalkiewicz def. Herrig, submission (RNC) R2 4:01)
“And I got to say, I'm going to be on Moser off here.”
Alonzo Menifield TKO'd Askar Mozharov at 4:40 of Round 1 at UFC Vegas 56 — Mozharov ML loses. (Menifield def. Mozharov, TKO (elbows) R1 4:40)
“finishes real hard you can get his inside the distance at plus 450”
Lucas Almeida defeated Michael Trizano by TKO (punches) at 0:55 of Round 3 at UFC Vegas 56. Almeida won inside the distance (fight did not go to decision). Source: MMA Mania (mmamania.com/2022/6/4/23154352/ufc-vegas-56-full-fight-video-highights-volkov-rozenstruik-results-espn-mma-almeida-knockout-trizano). (Almeida def. Trizano TKO R3 0:55)
“And my best bet is Karin who you referenced earlier with your inside the distance I playing her straight up”
Karine Silva submitted Poliana Botelho via D'Arce choke in Round 1 (4:55) in her UFC debut at UFC Vegas 56 — Silva ML cashes. (Silva def. Botelho, submission (D'Arce) R1 4:55)
“[6:20] That's enough when you're getting over plus 200 on Vieira for me. It's not my favorite fight to”
Ketlen (Kayo) Vieira defeated Holly Holm via split decision at UFC Fight Night 206 — Vieira ML cashes. (Vieira def. Holm, split decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47))
“[8:13] No, I'm going later on this one. I'm looking at Chase Cooper. He's as high as about plus 155. You”
Chase Hooper finished Felipe Colares via TKO in Round 3 at UFC Fight Night 206 — Hooper ML cashes. (Hooper def. Colares, TKO (elbows/mount), R3)
“[14:33] him out of there right away. And you can get this one to go to the distance at plus 300 on FanDuel.”
Jailton Almeida submitted Parker Porter via rear-naked choke in round 1 (4:35) at UFC Fight Night 206; the fight did not go to decision. (Almeida def. Porter via submission (rear-naked choke), R1 4:35)
“[23:40] But speaking of good nicknames, I'm looking at Tabitha Baby Shark Ricci.”
Tabatha Ricci defeated Polyana Viana via unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 206 — Ricci ML cashes. (Ricci def. Viana, unanimous decision)
“[24:21] or this fight to end by submission at plus 200.”
Tabatha Ricci defeated Polyana Viana via unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 206; the fight did not end by submission. (Ricci def. Viana via unanimous decision)
“the neck injury in Le'Anne Blackovich's money line. I'm seeing plus 170 at DraftKings. You know,”
Jan Blachowicz defeated Aleksandar Rakic by TKO at 1:11 of round 3 at UFC Fight Night 208 (Vegas 54) on May 14, 2022. (Blachowicz def. Rakic, TKO, R3 1:11)
“the markets are giving it so i'm going to sprinkle a little bit on yan by decision at plus 400 with”
Jan Blachowicz defeated Aleksandar Rakic by TKO (knee injury) in Round 3 at UFC Fight Night 208. The fight did not go to a decision so 'Blachowicz by decision' loses. Source: ESPN (Blachowicz def. Rakic by TKO (knee injury), R3 (1:11))
“188 on FanDuel. And then again, on top of all that, just everything Sean's saying, we've got”
Allan Nascimento defeated Jake Hadley (event listed "Jack Hadley") by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 208 on May 14, 2022. (Nascimento def. Hadley, unanimous decision)
“get span at plus 400 inside the distance if you parlay those things together at Caesars.”
Ryan Spann submitted Ion Cutelaba via guillotine choke at 2:22 of Round 1 at UFC Fight Night 208 (Vegas 54) — both parlay legs (Spann ML, fight ends inside the distance) hit. (Spann def. Cutelaba by submission (guillotine), R1 2:22)
“majority decision at plus 800 on DraftKings. But I'm just seeing a stylistic thing here that I think”
Virna Jandiroba defeated Angela Hill by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC Fight Night 208. It was a unanimous decision, not a split or majority decision. Source: MMA Decisions / Cage Side Press (Jandiroba def. Hill by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27))
“But no, I'm looking at the Amanda Hebes money line.”
Katlyn Chookagian defeated Amanda Ribas via split decision at UFC Fight Night 208 — Ribas ML loses. (Chookagian def. Ribas, split decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29))
“[14:40] like the best version of himself. I'm on Lozen small, but as I mentioned, there are a couple”
Donald Cerrone withdrew from his UFC 274 bout vs. Joe Lauzon (transcribed "Joe Lozon") the morning of the event due to a non-COVID illness; the fight never took place. (Bout cancelled — Cerrone pulled same-day due to illness)
“[21:32] well get the plus money on the knockout instead of betting his money line. Yeah, I think you made”
Randy Brown defeated Khaos Williams by split decision at UFC 274 (fight went the distance despite two knockdowns of Brown) — Williams did not win by KO. (Randy Brown def. Khaos Williams via split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28))
“the [6:32] only bet that i'm going to be making i'm going to be betting vera inside the distance at plus 300”
Marlon Vera defeated Rob Font by unanimous decision (48-47, 49-46, 49-46) at UFC Vegas 53. The fight went the full 5 rounds — Vera did not win inside the distance despite scoring multiple knockdowns. Source: Bloody Elbow / ESPN (Vera def. Font by unanimous decision, 5 rounds)
“I like Gordon at plus 160 and then a possible live betting opportunity if he gets taken down early on.”
Grant Dawson submitted Jared Gordon via rear-naked choke at 4:11 of Round 3. (Submission, R3 4:11 - Dawson wins)
“but i think if you're better in this pre-fight lionese by ko at plus 200 is the [21:17] way to go”
Gabe Green defeated Yohan Lainesse by TKO (body shots/ground and pound) in Round 2 at 4:02 at UFC Vegas 53. Lainesse did not win — he was finished by Green in round 2. Source: Cage Side Press / MMA Mania (Green def. Lainesse by TKO, R2 (4:02))
“No, we're lockstep on this one.”
Darren Elkins defeated Tristan Connelly by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC Vegas 53 on April 30, 2022. (Elkins def. Connelly, unanimous decision)
“I played the Andrade Moneyline.”
Jessica Andrade submitted Amanda Lemos via a standing arm-triangle choke at 3:13 of Round 1. (Submission, R1 3:13 - Andrade wins)
“So at almost two to one, I'm taking Cameron Ellis.”
Aori Qileng TKO'd Cameron Else via strikes at 2:48 of Round 1. (TKO, R1 2:48 - Qileng wins)
“so i'm betting [13:29] jordan right by knockout he's as high as plus 400 about rivers right now”
Marc-Andre Barriault defeated Jordan Wright by submission (guillotine choke) at 2:36 of Round 1 at UFC Fight Night 205 on April 23, 2022. Wright did not win by KO. Source: https://www.sherdog.com/videos/highlightreels/UFC-Fight-Night-205-Highlight-Video-MarcAndre-Barriault-Taps-Jordan-Wright-18270 (Barriault def. Wright sub (guillotine) R1 2:36)
“So 550 on the submission line for Barry seems awfully long. [20:28] that's over at FanDuel.”
Mike Jackson defeated Dean Barry by disqualification at UFC Fight Night 205 on April 23, 2022, after Barry eye-gouged Jackson in Round 1. Barry did not win by submission. Source: https://www.sherdog.com/videos/highlightreels/UFC-Fight-Night-205-Highlight-Video-Dean-Barry-Eye-Gouges-Mike-Jackson-18265 (Jackson def. Barry DQ R1)
“but you can get Barry to win in round one at plus 130 on DraftKings”
Mike Jackson defeated Dean Barry by disqualification in Round 1 at UFC Fight Night 205 on April 23, 2022. Barry was DQ'd for eye-gouging Jackson. Barry did not win. Source: https://www.sherdog.com/videos/highlightreels/UFC-Fight-Night-205-Highlight-Video-Dean-Barry-Eye-Gouges-Mike-Jackson-18265 (Jackson def. Barry DQ R1)
“But my absolute favorite bet is it to go the distance at plus 110.”
Belal Muhammad defeated Vicente Luque by unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47) over 5 rounds at UFC Vegas 51 on April 16, 2022. The fight went the full distance. (MMAmania; UFC.com official results) (Unanimous decision, 5 rounds)
“I'm just betting the Kyle money line. [10:02] I like it.”
Caio Borralho defeated Gadzhi Omargadzhiev by unanimous decision (29-27, 29-27, 29-27). (Unanimous decision, 29-27 x3)
“So at plus 150 or so, I'm willing to take those odds.”
Devin Clark knocked out William Knight via punches at 3:21 of Round 1. (KO, R1 3:21 - Clark wins)
“my favorite is just taking his money line [14:27] straight up”
Jordan Leavitt won a split decision over Trey Ogden (29-28, 28-29, 29-28). (Split decision win for Leavitt)
“But I'm looking at Miguel Baeza by knockout. I'm seeing it as high as plus 180.”
Andre Fialho defeated Miguel Baeza by TKO (strikes) in Round 1 at UFC Vegas 51 on April 16, 2022. Baeza did not win by knockout. Source: https://cagesidepress.com/2022/04/16/ufc-vegas-51-miguel-baeza-vs-andre-fialho/ (Fialho def. Baeza TKO R1)
“Yeah, I really like the symmetry of how this played out here because I'm on Martin Budai by knockout. [25:24] minus 115.”
Martin Buday defeated Chris Barnett by technical decision (30-27 x3) at UFC Vegas 51 on April 16, 2022. Buday won but not by KO — the fight ended due to an illegal elbow to the back of Barnett's head and went to the scorecards. Source: https://cagesidepress.com/2022/04/16/ufc-vegas-51-martin-buday-vs-chris-barnett/ (Buday def. Barnett technical decision)
“So that I think is 150 right now for Volk inside the distance. [6:28] That's the only bet I'm comfortable making on this one.”
Alexander Volkanovski TKO'd the Korean Zombie in round 4 at UFC 273. Volkanovski won inside the distance. (UFC.com; CBS Sports UFC 273 recap) (TKO R4 4:45)
“but i'm looking at josh friend [15:25] he's a ufc newcomer coming in at plus 170 against anthony hernandez”
Anthony Hernandez won a unanimous decision over Josh Fremd at UFC 273. (Hernandez def. Fremd, unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28))
“I'm [20:45] looking to bet the fight to start round two at minus 175.”
Chimaev vs Burns went to a unanimous decision over 3 rounds, meaning round 2 started (and completed). The bet on the fight reaching the start of round 2 won. (CBS Sports; UFC News) (Unanimous decision, 3 rounds)
“I like Comzat under 2.0 takedowns. Nobody has ever gotten back up when Comzat's been on top [21:19] of him in a cage.”
Khamzat Chimaev completed 2 takedowns in his 3-round unanimous decision over Gilbert Burns at UFC 273. Two takedowns is not under 2.0, so the bet lost. (sports-statistics.com UFC 273 fight stats) (Chimaev 2 takedowns of 3 attempts)
“I think this one gets stopped, and I think Santos is the winner. [23:03] So plus 430, I'm definitely taking that one.”
Julio Arce defeated Daniel Santos by unanimous decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC 273. Santos did not win and the fight did not end inside the distance. (CageSidePress; MMA Decisions) (Arce unanimous decision win)
“I'm on Mark Madsen here, [31:02] just on the takedown upside.”
Mark Madsen won a unanimous decision over Vinc Pichel at UFC 273. (Madsen def. Pichel, unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28))
“so i'm looking at plus 350 on the money line and then the sub is plus 1600 so you know little [6:31] sprinkle on that as well”
Curtis Blaydes TKO'd Chris Daukaus in round 2 of the UFC Fight Night 205 main event. (Blaydes def. Daukaus, TKO R2 0:17)
“So I [9:30] like Kerafrance at plus 300. And I also like him to win by knockout at 800.”
Kai Kara-France won a unanimous decision over Askar Askarov at UFC Fight Night 205. (Kara-France def. Askarov, unanimous decision (29-28 x3))
“So I [9:30] like Kerafrance at plus 300. And I also like him to win by knockout at 800. You can get the stoppage [9:35] at 750. I'll take the better price on the knockout”
Kai Kara-France defeated Askar Askarov by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC Fight Night 205 on March 26, 2022; there was no knockout (per MMAmania.com and Cage Side Press). (Unanimous decision 29-28 x3)
“Yeah, I'm looking at Alir Latifi by knockout at plus 180.”
Ilir Latifi vs. Aleksei Oleinik was scratched from UFC Fight Night 205 on March 26, 2022 due to Latifi's last-minute illness withdrawal (per Cage Side Press and Bloody Elbow).
“yeah, I'm going with Batchelor Dana or Dana Batchelor. They seem to have switched his first and last names lately.”
Chris Gutierrez TKO'd Danaa Batgerel in round 2 at UFC Fight Night 205. (Gutierrez def. Batgerel, TKO R2 2:34)
“my favorite dog is definitely paul craig i think he's up to”
Paul Craig submitted Nikita Krylov (triangle choke) in round 1 at UFC Fight Night 204. (Craig def. Krylov, submission R1 3:57)
“I'm also going to sprinkle a little bit on his submission at plus four 50.”
Paul Craig submitted Nikita Krylov via triangle choke at 3:57 of R1 — Craig won by submission (Sherdog / MMAMania). (R1 3:57, triangle choke)
“i like the younger guy i like you know the guy who's coming up and trending in”
Arnold Allen TKO'd Dan Hooker in round 1 at UFC Fight Night 204. (Allen def. Hooker, TKO R1 2:33)
“Yeah, I mentioned him with the DFS, but I'm on Jack Shore's money line.”
Jack Shore won a unanimous decision over Timur Valiev at UFC Fight Night 204. (Shore def. Valiev, unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-27))
“I also like him inside the distance at plus 450.”
Jack Shore defeated Timur Valiev via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-27) — Shore did not win inside the distance (CageSidePress).
“Yeah, I'm going with Alex Caceres.”
Sodiq Yusuff won a unanimous decision over Alex Caceres at UFC Fight Night 203; Caceres' moneyline lost. (Yusuff def. Caceres 30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
“I actually do like Bruno Silva's money line though.”
Alex Pereira won a unanimous decision over Bruno Silva at UFC Fight Night 203; Silva's moneyline lost. (Pereira def. Silva 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
“one but just wanted to throw that little nugget on there but yeah on my side i really like dalcha”
Cody Brundage defeated Dalcha Lungiambula via guillotine choke submission at 3:41 of R1 — Dalcha lost, did not win inside the distance (Yahoo Sports / Sherdog).
“But no, I'm also going with AJ Fletcher.”
Matthew Semelsberger won a unanimous decision over AJ Fletcher at UFC Fight Night 203; Fletcher's moneyline lost. (Semelsberger def. Fletcher 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
“Yeah, I'm going with Mikael Olashashok against Dustin Jacoby.”
Dustin Jacoby won a unanimous decision over Michal Oleksiejczuk (referred to as "Mikael Olashashok") at UFC 272; the pick's moneyline lost. (Jacoby def. Oleksiejczuk 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
“I'm taking the safer route and just betting his money line.”
Bryce Mitchell won a lopsided unanimous decision over Edson Barboza at UFC 272; Barboza's moneyline lost. (Mitchell def. Barboza 30-25, 30-26, 30-27)
“Yeah, I'm betting Sergei Spivik to win by submission. I think it's right around plus 300.”
Sergei Spivak defeated Greg Hardy by TKO (ground and pound) in round 1, not by submission, at UFC 272, per CBS Sports.
“Yeah, I'm going with Ludovic Klein at plus 140.”
Ludovit Klein won a split decision over Devonte Smith at UFC 272; his moneyline won. (Klein def. Smith 30-27, 29-28, 28-29)
“I really like the opener between Altamarino and Hernandez [19:26] to end inside the distance. [19:28] It's currently plus 110 right now”
Carlos Hernandez defeated Victor Altamirano by split decision — the fight went the full three rounds, not inside the distance, per Cage Side Press.
“My favorite one right now, and it's jumped up from 2.5 to 3, is the Makachev takedowns [24:26] in the main event. [24:27] They had it at 2.5. [24:29] Now it's 3. [24:29] I think he goes well over that.”
Makhachev landed 1 takedown (a double-leg) before finishing Green by TKO at 3:23 of round 1 — well under the 3-takedown line — per MMA Weekly live results. (1 takedown landed)