Guest / College Football Analyst · 8-17-1 on settled picks
“[4:34] schedule once they get back from probably lapping Bill Belichick a few times [4:39] overseas in the first game. [4:41] They come back. [4:42] They only leave the state of Texas twice. [4:44] And I took them 20-1 to win the Big 12. [4:47] I think they're going to match up with Texas Tech there. [4:50] But that number is way too large for the talent that TCU has.”
“[9:13] And, you know, Baylor is just a walking corpse. [9:16] Now, the other one that is not going to get a lot of love is Iowa. [9:18] Iowa is in deep trouble. [9:20] Under 7.5, one of our favorite vets. [9:23] It's already on our board over at BBOC.”
“[16:48] Look, I mean, Kyle Whittingham's job is to come in there and put out the fire that's inside the building. [16:54] Right. And to have and the reports from what, you know, Bryce Underwood has been in the spring and what he's been in full camp is not good. [17:02] He's trending backwards as far as raw talent and being developed, which is another reason why I took Oklahoma on the money line against Michigan here in week two for a game of the year.”
“[18:03] So I don't like that move, especially when you're jumping down from the coordinator that I do love, [18:08] which is Danton Lynn, who moved to Penn State with Matt Campbell. [18:12] Penn State is a playoff team. [18:13] I've bet them plus 360 to make the playoff, and I think it's best described by this. [18:19] Like the roster, like the moves with the coaching staff, love the schedule.”
“either Louisville or Oregon State and they are on the Arizona coastal side of the bracket aka not the LSU Arkansas side and they are playing tomorrow night and Oregon State's a pretty hefty favorite in the game at BetMGM total is 10 what do you think about that game Oregon State Louisville tomorrow night and do you like either of those teams to make any type of noise in the College World Series that is an over game all the way I've already put my money down on it projected at 11.6 and I think when you watch those Oregon State bats and what they've been able to do lately”
OSU 4, LOU 3 — Oregon State beat Louisville 4-3 on a walk-off in the College World Series; the teams combined for only 7 runs, below the 10-run total (ESPN box score).
“they were plus 170 when I hit it.”
27-20 — Duke beat Virginia 27-20 in overtime to win the 2025 ACC Championship Game on December 6, 2025; Clemson did not win the conference title.
“And I love Alabama. I've already bet them 8-1 to win the SEC.”
Georgia beat Texas 22-19 in overtime to win the 2024 SEC Championship Game; Alabama did not win the SEC (Wikipedia). (SEC champion: Georgia 22, Texas 19 (OT))
“Yeah, I did. I did make a national championship bet at five to one back, I believe, in January of this year. So but I know it's now down to three to one. I still think the national championship bet is the way to go. I don't know if you necessarily want to bet the win total or the SEC with the Bulldogs.”
Ohio State beat Notre Dame 34-23 to win the 2024-25 College Football Playoff national championship; Georgia did not win it. (National champion: Ohio State 34, Notre Dame 23)
“Yeah, I think one game that I bet is the very first week of the season. I'm already taking Notre Dame plus one against Texas A&M. And this is just one of those things where the Irish return a heavy amount of defensive front seven”
Notre Dame 23, Texas A&M 13 — Notre Dame beat Texas A&M 23-13 on August 31, 2024, winning outright and covering +1 (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee is going to have a lot of extra possessions because that defensive secondary is going to get eaten alive. I know in my preview of SEC, I'm saying take Tennessee on the no to make the playoff at minus 220. because they have three games. They have no chance of winning on that schedule. So that's my favorite bet for them.”
Tennessee was selected as the 9 seed in the 2024-25 College Football Playoff, so the not-to-make-the-playoff bet lost (Wikipedia). (Tennessee: CFP participant (9 seed))
“I mean, I bet some G5s. I don't think anybody wants to hear about that. And I've definitely bet Tennessee to not make it. Notre Dame is a team that I love to make the playoff. You know, they don't have a conference championship game. They should slot in as a home team immediately.”
Notre Dame was selected as the 7 seed in the 2024-25 College Football Playoff and reached the national title game (Wikipedia). (Notre Dame: CFP participant (7 seed))
“Not that they have a number that it's probably good enough to go ahead and purchase, but Alabama is still plus 110 out there. And if you are one of those people that believe 8-1 in the SEC is good, then Alabama to make the playoff is worth a buy because it's still plus money.”
Alabama, ranked 11th, was left out of the 2024-25 College Football Playoff in favor of SMU (Wikipedia). (Alabama: not selected for CFP)
“Hawaii's going to beat UCLA. They'll be on the island taking on a brand new coach, brand new team, brand new offensive philosophy, brand new defensive philosophy, since they lost to defensive coordinator at USC. Timmy Chang really has it rolling at Hawaii. He has one of the best numbers from an experience perspective coming back. And, you know, I talked to Timmy Chang last week at Circa, and it was a really long conversation about how everybody now knows his system. Everybody knows where to go. Everybody now knows what's expected of them. And he says it's just night and day compared to what they had a year ago when they had talent enough to go almost beat Vanderbilt, except they didn't have the conditioning to finish off the fourth quarter. So Hawaii outright upset against UCLA is a very quiet bet that I've been making.”
UCLA 16, Hawaii 13 — UCLA beat Hawaii 16-13 on August 31, 2024, so the Hawaii moneyline bet lost (ESPN box score).
“And by no means should they be plus 160 to anybody. So I love Ryan Prager backing him. You can either back him in game one when it's announced and it's confirmed that he is going to be the pitcher, or you can be steady like I have been all day watching all these books, looking for a Texas A&M plus one and a half. And my buy point is about minus 120. So anything you can get better on Texas A&M plus one and a half is absolutely the best bet. But it's a Ryan Prager bet all the way.”
9-5 — Texas A&M beat Tennessee 9-5 in Game 1 of the College World Series Finals, covering +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Milwaukee 22-1 to win their tournament.”
Oakland won the 2024 Horizon League men's basketball tournament, not Milwaukee, so the futures bet lost (Horizon League official site).
“Yeah, Alabama is a future. I think everybody should hit 35-1 at some shops.”
Tennessee beat Texas A&M to win the 2024 Men's College World Series; Alabama did not win the national championship, so the futures bet lost (NCAA.com).
“Well, the Royals, I love their win total over. I make them 77. I think my partner Zerillo, who I trust in everything with baseball loves them for their win total and over. And, you know, I think it's at 73 and a half. I would buy that all the way up to 77.”
The Royals finished the 2024 regular season 86-76, well over the 73.5 win total (Wikipedia: 2024 Kansas City Royals season, sourcing MLB's official standings). (86 wins)
“I love Corbin Carroll and Bobby Wood both are 20 to 1 in their respective leagues”
Shohei Ohtani won the 2024 National League MVP award unanimously; Corbin Carroll did not win (MLB.com). (NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani)
“I love Corbin Carroll and Bobby Wood both are 20 to 1 in their respective leagues”
Aaron Judge won the 2024 American League MVP award over finalist Bobby Witt Jr.; Witt did not win (MLB.com). (AL MVP: Aaron Judge)
“And then Jung Hoo Lee is 50 to one to win doubles.”
Jarren Duran led MLB with 48 doubles in the 2024 regular season; Jung Hoo Lee, limited to 37 games by a shoulder injury, did not lead the league, so the futures bet lost (ESPN MLB batting leaders). (Duran 48 doubles)
“So take all the plus money you can get on Emma Stone.”
Emma Stone won Best Actress for Poor Things at the 96th Academy Awards on March 10, 2024, so the futures bet won (Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences official site).
“Well, there is an oppi parlay, and you can put best picture, best director, best supporting actor, best cinematography, best score, and best editing, and $100 would pay you about $45.”
Oppenheimer won all six named categories at the 96th Academy Awards -- Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Best Cinematography, Best Original Score, and Best Film Editing -- so the six-way parlay hit (Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences official site).
“The creator had John David Washington in it. They won the award at VES this past weekend, but for some reason, they're plus 125.”
Godzilla Minus One won Best Visual Effects at the 96th Academy Awards, not The Creator, so the futures bet lost (Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences official site).
“I did hit Ohio State this morning, minus three.”
OSU 17, ND 14 — Ohio State beat Notre Dame 17-14 on 9/23/2023, a 3-point margin exactly matching the -3 line, so Ohio State -3 pushes (ESPN final).
“they're in a lot of my round robins this week for money line”
ALA 24, MISS 10 — Alabama beat Ole Miss 24-10 on 9/23/2023, so the Ole Miss moneyline pick busts (ESPN final).
“Georgia Tech is going to be my upset of the week.”
GT 30, WAKE 16 — Georgia Tech beat Wake Forest 30-16 on 9/23/2023, so the Georgia Tech moneyline pick cashes (ESPN final).
“I've been wanting to bet him all year and finally started taking aim in the spring, 40-1s, 50-1s, 60-1s, but 25-1, I think, is more valuable than taking Penn State to win the national title or to go to the college football playoffs as Drew Allard win the Heisman”
Jayden Daniels (LSU) won the 2023 Heisman Trophy; Drew Allar did not win. (2023 Heisman Trophy winner: Jayden Daniels)
“Do you like one or both of Michigan and Ohio State to go under 10.5 if you like Penn State a lot? I think the floor for both Michigan and Ohio State is 10. So it's really tough to say, like, I like them to go under. But these are two teams that I'm not backing. Ohio State, because two new quarterbacks are there, we're having some changeover on the defensive side of the ball. I don't trust Jim Knowles on defense to stop using cover zero in big games. Ryan Day is a play caller, has been questioned in times in the big games. Can their new quarterback get out to two of the best wide receivers in the nation? A lot of questions there to answer. And then when you flip over to Michigan, they seem to get really hurt. Their feelings really hurt when I say, I think we've seen the ceiling from this team. I think we've seen as far as they can go from an offensive coordinator perspective. Instead of a co-coordinator situation, they're down to their offensive line coach calling plays. Does that have an effect on the passing game with J.J. McCarthy, which something I learned at media days this year is that Michigan only runs like 25 to 40% of the plays they have in the playbook because of J.J. McCarthy. And, you know, the line of questioning that I had on that was, you're saying that we don't trust J.J. McCarthy to run certain plays, and the answer was absolutely. You know, he gets a little wild, a little Brett Favish with some of the things that he does, and they want to keep him in the pocket, and they want to keep him, you know, not causing turnover. So I think, you know, J.J. McCarthy's best is what we saw against TCU in the loss in the Fiesta Bowl last year. It's just absolutely wild downfield shots. But at the same time, you know, running the quarterback position, he still is prone to causing turnovers. I think, you know, I think we've seen the ceiling out of Michigan. They made the playoffs. They were embarrassed. Both times they made it. Well, I mean, you lost to TCU, but the year before you were embarrassed by Georgia. I think that's the best that we're ever going to see Michigan. And at the same time, Penn State has elevated their play on the offensive side of the ball, and they still have the number one defense. So I could see a scenario where they're all 11-1. They can all just trade shots on each other and be 11-1, and that's where tiebreakers come in. It's really hard to go negative on those two teams, but I would take the under on both. If I had to take one or the other 11- or 10-win seasons, I'd say they're both 10-win seasons.”
Michigan went 12-0 in the 2023 regular season (through the Nov. 25 win at Ohio State), well over 10.5 wins, so the under lost. (Michigan 2023 regular season: 12-0)
“Do you like one or both of Michigan and Ohio State to go under 10.5 if you like Penn State a lot? I think the floor for both Michigan and Ohio State is 10. So it's really tough to say, like, I like them to go under. But these are two teams that I'm not backing. Ohio State, because two new quarterbacks are there, we're having some changeover on the defensive side of the ball. I don't trust Jim Knowles on defense to stop using cover zero in big games. Ryan Day is a play caller, has been questioned in times in the big games. Can their new quarterback get out to two of the best wide receivers in the nation? A lot of questions there to answer. And then when you flip over to Michigan, they seem to get really hurt. Their feelings really hurt when I say, I think we've seen the ceiling from this team. I think we've seen as far as they can go from an offensive coordinator perspective. Instead of a co-coordinator situation, they're down to their offensive line coach calling plays. Does that have an effect on the passing game with J.J. McCarthy, which something I learned at media days this year is that Michigan only runs like 25 to 40% of the plays they have in the playbook because of J.J. McCarthy. And, you know, the line of questioning that I had on that was, you're saying that we don't trust J.J. McCarthy to run certain plays, and the answer was absolutely. You know, he gets a little wild, a little Brett Favish with some of the things that he does, and they want to keep him in the pocket, and they want to keep him, you know, not causing turnover. So I think, you know, J.J. McCarthy's best is what we saw against TCU in the loss in the Fiesta Bowl last year. It's just absolutely wild downfield shots. But at the same time, you know, running the quarterback position, he still is prone to causing turnovers. I think, you know, I think we've seen the ceiling out of Michigan. They made the playoffs. They were embarrassed. Both times they made it. Well, I mean, you lost to TCU, but the year before you were embarrassed by Georgia. I think that's the best that we're ever going to see Michigan. And at the same time, Penn State has elevated their play on the offensive side of the ball, and they still have the number one defense. So I could see a scenario where they're all 11-1. They can all just trade shots on each other and be 11-1, and that's where tiebreakers come in. It's really hard to go negative on those two teams, but I would take the under on both. If I had to take one or the other 11- or 10-win seasons, I'd say they're both 10-win seasons.”
Ohio State went 11-1 in the 2023 regular season, its only loss coming to Michigan on Nov. 25, exceeding 10.5 wins so the under lost. (Ohio State 2023 regular season: 11-1)
“I do love Victor outright. I believe 16 to 1 everywhere.”
Viktor Hovland won the 2023 BMW Championship at 17-under (263) after a final-round course-record 61, finishing two shots ahead of Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick. (Viktor Hovland: 17-under (263), won by 2)