Doug Kezirian

“Doug, why don't you kick us off here? Who do you like? Okay, so obviously there's a bunch of different angles with these trends. Week two, you touched on it. For me, it's the Bears, that game. I like the Vikings and the points. Now, there's always an element of trepidation, right, with Carson Wentz figures to be the starting quarterback. But once he got acclimated, I thought he looked pretty good. And especially when you get these situations where a guy is thrust into the middle of the game versus in this case, I think he's going to have a full week of practice. Right. I'm not expecting Kyler Murray to go. So I think it's going to be much more conducive. The play calling will be conducive to his strengths and what he wants to do. But in terms of those trends, road dogs between one and six and a half. So like under a touchdown, right? They're 44 and 17 against the spread over the last decade in week two. I just think it's one of those things where I think Chicago is getting a little too much love. And I still think their defense gave up, looked horrible. And I still think the offense looked great against partly because of what, you know, Carolina's defense is. I just think it's too many points. So I'm taking the points with the Vikings. Obviously, Florida's going to want to blitz Caleb Williams. Maybe he's got some bad habits of trying to extend plays too much in the pocket and go off script. I think it's just a way where they're going to keep this inside the number. Yeah, this is the way that I would look. Look, the Bears' offense, they put up, for what it's worth, they put up 59 points. Teams off of 50-plus point wins historically, they're just 33-33 against the spread, so there's nothing really there either way. But unders, though, 38 and 28 in those games, 57.5%. But, I mean, look, the Bears' defense is really, really bad. So it's hard to ask them to win by margin. Yeah, they did it last week. But there was, what, a muff punt. There was a roughing the passer. There was a number of different plays. I mean, look, they got three turnovers. And they made Bryce Young look all-world, right? Yeah, I mean, they did whatever. But there's, look, they're not going to get a ton of pressure. The secondary's really bad. Maybe there's some, I don't think Kyler Gordon's ever coming back. Maybe there's some hope that Xavier Woods, who's hurt, comes back at safety. And then you move Cam Lewis to the slot. Malik Muhammad, maybe for Tyreek Stevenson. But even Jalen Johnson looked like completely washed out there. Like, there's not much hope for this defense. I'm still shocked they didn't trade for an edge rusher so you're going to be able to move the ball on this team small sample size but teams who score at least 40 and win by over 20 in week one four and 10 ATS since 2010 so and then when they're the favorite it's two and six so obviously small sample size but there's a definitely like bears feeling themselves a little bit now they this is a home opener look the line jumped uh right I caught like two to three like two points and part of that is like and one of the reasons you mentioned like score over 40 win by 20 like there's a lot of people are like number one the market reacts at number two no one wants to fade that team that looks so good but here's like is there really a big i'm struggling with this but is there and there's a chance mary plays it's slim but but is there a really a big difference between Wentz and Murray right now. I mean, Murray didn't look... Probably not. Yeah, I mean, look, Wentz knows, has been in the system, right? Has played under O'Connell. Murray, it's like a different looking offense with Murray. So, I mean, if you look, since the start of last year, Wentz ranks 19th in EPA per play among 40 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks. That's better than Kyler Murray. one spot behind Caleb Williams for what it's worth. And what they did in the second half last week is, and look, the Vikings offense was ugly. They averaged 3.9 yards per play. They averaged 19 yards per drive. That was the fewest of any team in the league last week. So they got super fortunate on third down, super fortunate with turnover, super fortunate in the red zone. But their offense definitely looked better in the second half when, we talked about this in the leadoff to start the show, But O'Connell went more under center, more play action, more multi-tight end looks, which I think all can work against the Bears because it was like Murray and shotgun. And that's just like not where the league's headed. It's a different looking offense. And Murray just didn't look comfortable yet. It's probably going to take him some time. So I don't know. I could argue that Wentz, he's hard to gauge because sometimes you see him and you're like, oh. but then like last week he was he was made all the throws he needed to and looked better than I thought Murray did early on so I don't know if it's that much of a drop-off and but look but there is a drop-off from Wentz to Kayla Williams right like that's the concern is you have Ben Johnson you have a much better quarterback there's a chance like the Bears are just that good and but there's a chance you can lose any wager in the NFL so I just think there's a little line value here And I think the spot, as much as a spot can be good in week two, I think it favors Minnesota. Yeah, that's the I'm probably going to play as I'm trying to figure out if like Murray gets officially ruled out if this ticks back up. Yeah, it's a good question. I don't know. I mean, it's also where the original number is, right? Like it's not on three. So obviously four and a half, it could move to four or five. one way or the other.”

“Yeah, I like Houston at two and a half.”

“oh, you haven't given your second pick yet. Where are you going for your second pick? Yeah, so I mentioned that sharp group. I had two plays. One was the over on Thursday Night Football. The other one was Arizona, but I'm on Seattle. I like that side. It's official. Sam Darnold's not playing um drew lock and he only had one shaky throw and that was at the end of the first half but i thought the second half he was on point and full week of practice seattle i think will be ready to rock i think it's obviously the obvious flat spot of arizona and again i didn't think they played that great um they're obviously a competent offense with height with you know they can do some things on offense downfield but i think the seattle defense is special i think drew lock i'm not like Darnold was great last year but I think a lot of that was the system and Kubiak I mean I I think I think Locke will be fine I think Locke will be fine it's a short enough number with that defense um I'm not worried about like a flat spot off the big win against New England because it wasn't that big of a win for them um I I think it's a short number here three and a half I I'm surprised I disagree with you uh I think I'm gonna be on the Cardinals here um I just I”

“I think they're the better team. Now, you've got to be careful. You can't expect bad teams to do good things, but I do think they're going to win this game. And, dare I say, do they pick off Cam Ward, finally get an interception as opposed to last year? It's plus money. I'm betting it. I'm betting. Yeah, why not? You can martingale it the rest of the year. It's just fluky that they didn't get one. No interceptions last year.”

“oh why wouldn you want to use the jets uh no i gonna take the i am gonna take the jets i think it i don want to say those famous words of wrong team favorite They can be favored on the road obviously But I like getting the extra couple points This is a low-scoring game, low total, coming down to the wire. I think they're the better team, and I think it starts and ends with the trenches more than anything. So both sides of the ball in the trenches, the Jets, and I think that the skill position players are better as well. So I like New York with a few candy on the road in Tennessee. And then I'm going to lay it in the game we haven't really discussed is Philly. I think this Washington O-line is just in shambles right now. A lot of issues. I think this Eagles team is going to have sort of an axe to grind and chip on their shoulder without A.J. Brown. Devontae should go off, by the way. But I like Philly here. I think they, I mean, remember they solved their O.C. issue last year. Their defense is top five. I like Jaden Daniels, but with that offensive line against this defense, I think there should be some significant problems. And getting it under six, obviously the market's gone up a little bit from four and a half, but I think under six is worth a play here. Yeah, you're going to have a new Washington offense, like maybe Daniels under center more, so there could be some growing pains there. People don't mention he thrived when Kingsbury was the OC. Kingsbury was like a new toy, and Daniels wasn't banged up as a rookie, and he was great. and then kingsbury leaves things fall apart like kingsbury i mean i have to see people teased him and all that stuff all those memes and everything and his arizona as a head coaching days but he knows what he's doing as an oc and really daniels has not been the same since yeah look and look i i also think i think the eagles make sense there i also love i bet talked about this in the preseason and the under the under has been hit from 47 up down to 44 and if i can't play it now but if one of these teams why does the under make sense like offensive line issues for Washington are, I mean, you lose Laramie Tunsil, it's a disaster right now. Going to Philly against that defense with offensive line issues and a new offensive scheme like that doesn't, it isn't a recipe for success. Eagles also breaking in a new offensive scheme, so there could be growing pains there. Washington's defense still not going to be great, but at least they got faster and younger. Like, it's not going to be just where they're open space all over the place. I'm not sure how Hurts is going to operate in this new offense and trying to throw over the middle field. I think there's going to be an adjustment period. But I think the Eagles defense should dominate this game. It's the best unit in this game by far. And I think that if with the under, like at 47.5, I really liked it. Now it's at 44.5. I can't chase that number. But if there's like, these are new offenses. If there's like a really good script by either one of them, and they go down and score a touchdown, and I can get a live under, that's what I'll look at. But for the contest, Doug's going with the Jets plus one and a half at the Titans. I'm going with the Rams minus three and a half against the 49ers. Doug's also going with the Eagles minus five and a half at home against the Commanders. And then I'm closing it out with the Panthers plus three at home against the Bears. And the Texans plus one and a half at home against the Bills.”

“And then I'm going to lay it in the game we haven't really discussed is Philly. I think this Washington O-line is just in shambles right now. A lot of issues. I think this Eagles team is going to have sort of an axe to grind and chip on their shoulder without A.J. Brown. Devontae should go off, by the way. But I like Philly here. I think they, I mean, remember they solved their O.C. issue last year. Their defense is top five. I like Jaden Daniels, but with that offensive line against this defense, I think there should be some significant problems. And getting it under six, obviously the market's gone up a little bit from four and a half, but I think under six is worth a play here. Yeah, you're going to have a new Washington offense, like maybe Daniels under center more, so there could be some growing pains there. People don't mention he thrived when Kingsbury was the OC. Kingsbury was like a new toy, and Daniels wasn't banged up as a rookie, and he was great. and then kingsbury leaves things fall apart like kingsbury i mean i have to see people teased him and all that stuff all those memes and everything and his arizona as a head coaching days but he knows what he's doing as an oc and really daniels has not been the same since yeah look and look i i also think i think the eagles make sense there i also love i bet talked about this in the preseason and the under the under has been hit from 47 up down to 44 and if i can't play it now but if one of these teams why does the under make sense like offensive line issues for Washington are, I mean, you lose Laramie Tunsil, it's a disaster right now. Going to Philly against that defense with offensive line issues and a new offensive scheme like that doesn't, it isn't a recipe for success. Eagles also breaking in a new offensive scheme, so there could be growing pains there. Washington's defense still not going to be great, but at least they got faster and younger. Like, it's not going to be just where they're open space all over the place. I'm not sure how Hurts is going to operate in this new offense and trying to throw over the middle field. I think there's going to be an adjustment period. But I think the Eagles defense should dominate this game. It's the best unit in this game by far. And I think that if with the under, like at 47.5, I really liked it. Now it's at 44.5. I can't chase that number. But if there's like, these are new offenses. If there's like a really good script by either one of them, and they go down and score a touchdown, and I can get a live under, that's what I'll look at. But for the contest, Doug's going with the Jets plus one and a half at the Titans. I'm going with the Rams minus three and a half against the 49ers. Doug's also going with the Eagles minus five and a half at home against the Commanders. And then I'm closing it out with the Panthers plus three at home against the Bears. And the Texans plus one and a half at home against the Bills.”