Guest · 8-5 on settled picks
| League | spread | prop | total | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 4-2+27% | 4-2+27% | — | 8-4+27% |
“The one area that I'm looking to play, instead of playing the game total at 45 and a half points, I'm looking at the first half under. It was 23 and a half, and it's come down to 22 and a half. I still think you can go under this”
OSU 34, ND 23 — Ohio State led Notre Dame 21-7 at halftime of the CFP National Championship, a combined 28 points, over the first-half 22.5 total; under busts. (First half combined: 28 (OSU 21, ND 7))
“So I do think the Chiefs will jump out on the Houston Texans. I take Chiefs first half minus 4.5. That's the one solid play I do have.”
1H: KC 13, HOU 6 (final: KC 23, HOU 14) — Kansas City led Houston 13-6 at halftime of the AFC Divisional game (final KC 23, HOU 14) on Jan 18, 2025; Chiefs 1H margin +7 covers -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“That was at minus eight and a half when it opened for Buffalo, and that was one of the lines that I did end up grabbing.”
BUF 31, DEN 7 — Buffalo routed Denver 31-7 in the AFC Wild Card game on Jan 12, 2025; Bills margin +24 covers -8.5 (ESPN).
“Yeah. What an awkward Thanksgiving. Like, quite frankly, I would be chirping the other one. We're gonna go with the Baltimore Ravens minus two and a half. The Chargers win streak has been impressive, you know, rattling off four wins, but it hasn't been against good competition.”
BAL 30, LAC 23 — Ravens beat Chargers 30-23 on Monday Night Football; Baltimore -2.5 covers by a 7-point margin (ESPN box score).
“We're gonna go again. Cooper Rush to throw a pick.”
Cooper Rush threw 1 interception (32/55, 354 yds, 1 TD) in the Cowboys' 34-10 loss to the Texans; prop wins (ESPN box score). (Cooper Rush 1 INT)
“My favorite play on the board is gonna be Baker Mayfield over two and a half rushing attempts.”
Baker Mayfield carried the ball 4 times for 20 yards against the Chiefs, clearing the over 2.5 rushing attempts line (ESPN box score). (Mayfield 4 rushing attempts)
“So at this point, I just think that the you see a low total. The Giants should be able to hang in this one, so I'll take them off six.”
PIT 26, NYG 18 — Steelers beat the Giants 26-18, an 8-point margin that fails to cover New York +6 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm looking at Harris over 59 and a half rushing yards as well as, Daniel Jones to throw a pick.”
PIT 26, NYG 18 — Najee Harris rushed for 114 yards on 19 carries in Pittsburgh's 26-18 win over the Giants, clearing the 59.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Najee Harris: 19 car, 114 yds, 0 TD)
“My favorite play, which will be my best bet across the board today on ESPN. I'm not sure I ever gave it my best bet this early, on the show, but here we are at 09:22AM eastern time. We're gonna go with Justin Herbert, longest rush over seven and a half. He had over this mark in just two games so far this season, and that was in the first two weeks. But Arizona twenty ninth against the run, and if you look at their last the last couple quarterbacks that they faced, Jordan Love had 13, Purdy had 33, Daniels had 47. Like, they are not good whatsoever in stopping opposing quarterbacks. And I just think Justin Herbert getting line at seven and a half seems very low. So I'm gonna go Justin Herbert longest rush over seven and a half.”
ARI 17, LAC 15 — Justin Herbert's longest run in Arizona's 17-15 win was 4 yards (2 carries, 8 total yards), well under the 7.5-yard longest-rush line (ESPN box score). (Justin Herbert: 2 car, 8 yds, longest rush 4 yds)
“So I actually like the Buffalo Bills, and the reason being is because the New York Jets are just the easiest play of the country that I cannot go with the Jets. I haven't seen one person say that they're gonna go with the Bills. The Bills open as a three point favorite. It's now down to minus one.”
BUF 23, NYJ 20 — Bills beat the Jets 23-20, a 3-point margin that covers Buffalo -1 (ESPN box score).
“And then also Josh Allen interception, he had, you know, he hasn't had an interception yet. And each week, I say he's due. And I finally feel like he's due against, you know, going against this Jets defense. And I understand he's probably not gonna be throwing the ball as much as people think considering he went nine for 30 last week, but he's gonna have to throw it eventually. And I just think going against I mean, even guys like soft starters, I mean, he's gonna throw a pick at some point, I feel like, this game. So Josh on INT, Tyler Betts for a six and a half total kicking points, as well as James Cook anytime TD.”
BUF 23, NYJ 20 — Josh Allen went 19/25 for 215 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in Buffalo's win over the Jets; the interception prop misses (ESPN box score). (Josh Allen: 19/25, 215 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT)
“So would take the saints with the points. Now this line has seen a ton of movement. So it opened Kansas City minus five, got as high as Kansas City minus six, and now it's back down to minus five.”
KC 26, NO 13 — Chiefs beat the Saints 26-13; New Orleans lost by 13, failing to cover the +5 spread; busts (ESPN box score).
“Oh, we gotta go Patrick Mahomes interception.”
Patrick Mahomes threw 1 interception in the Chiefs' 26-13 win over the Saints (ESPN box score). (Mahomes 1 INT)