Analyst · 17-22 on settled picks
16 have calculable CLV from a stated line or price. Headline rates use 1 non-flat moves with audited evidence within 15 minutes of the start; 0 primary flat observations are excluded from the beat rate.
Quote timing: 1 within 15 minutes · 0 15–60 minutes · 0 older than 60 minutes · 16 unverified. Counts include captured quotes without numeric CLV. Parlays and prediction markets are separate. Coverage and missing evidence.
“Grant Nefer, you are up first, and you have Browns Buccaneers. Who do you like to score in this game? I mean, I really don't like this game at all. It's absolutely interesting trying to find bets. Banger. Oh, gosh, I did not like it. But I got a couple ones at decent odds, and they're both quarterbacks. So we're starting off to Sean Watson to score a touchdown, plus 600.”
“On the other side, rolling with Baker to score a touchdown. He scored one last week. I know he has not historically been a huge threat in the red zone to run the ball. Only gets about one to three touchdowns per year. but the odds seem a little bit high, plus 550. You're going up against the Browns. Obviously, his old team, Baker being the type of guy he is,”
“You can find him at anywhere from plus 900, plus 1,300.”
“Dallas Goddard at plus 235, plus 240. What are they doing? I have to look back at his stats over and over again. Last 16 games, 15 touchdowns. That's including the playoffs. averaging close to a touchdown per game had two touchdowns last week i know they're probably not going to be throwing much in the second half because they'll probably be ahead but i mean realistically dallas goddard i wouldn't be surprised if his odds should be plus 240 for a first half touchdown like he is huge in this offense in the red zone they're using him heavily hurts just relies on him so much and without aj brown in this offense anymore again you look at splits when either Smith or A.J. Brown were out last year, last few years, and they go through the roof. Plus 240 is just absolutely ridiculous odds for him. I would probably bet him all the way down to like plus 170, plus 160. Yeah, I mean, Goddard nearly tripled Johnny Mudd's snaps as well in week one. He is the tight end one in that offense. And I'm glad you brought up the splits without A Brown or Devontae Smith because that kind of been I think the best time to circle him and the fact that he scored two touchdowns last week and they haven lowered these odds I think the only reason why they have it listed this way because the production is there is they may think that this might be a blowout by halftime and then he doesn't really have to play as much in the second half. But I'm actually a little more bullish on the Titans. I think they'll be able to keep this a little closer. And that's why I love the Dallas Goddard bet, because they'll use him in fake end-arounds on the tush-push, shovel passes near the five.”
“And we are now at Vikings Bears. Grant, you got this game. Who do you like to score in this NFC North matchup? Yeah, this should be a fun one. I mean, it could go any numbers away. We obviously saw what the Bears did last week on offense and defense. This could be an incredibly high scoring game. It could be one where they end up struggling going up against Flores. But regardless, Caleb Williams to score plus 340 still seems too high. We got him at plus 550 last week, scored twice.”
“And then next up, Justin Jefferson. We can still get him at plus 180. What are they doing? Scored twice last week.”
“well so all right uh now let's move to Jaguars Broncos rematch from last year Grant you got this one who do you like to score yeah starting off with Cortland Sutton I know anyone who watched that game is probably gonna think I'm dumb because I mean he didn't look great Knicks didn't look great the entire Broncos team did not look great but I'm not putting too much into that just week one sudden did play the most snaps out of any wide receiver i still think he's the wide receiver run one regardless of what brian did on the field he looked fantastic but sudden still going to get a decent amount of targets he's still going to be the go-to guy in the red zone if they ever get there um he he has over eight touchdowns per season each of or on average over the last three seasons he's a big red zone threat he can obviously take a long bomb waddle is not going to eat into that wide receiver usage or that red zone usage. I know last week I liked him and it didn't hit, but I still like him again this week at plus 230 And then on the other side Jacoby Myers plus 320 You can find that at the moment And Myers obviously had a touchdown last week The Jacksonville team just absolutely destroyed the Browns”
“but I still like him again this week at plus 230 And then on the other side Jacoby Myers plus 320 You can find that at the moment And Myers obviously had a touchdown last week The Jacksonville team just absolutely destroyed the Browns So, I mean, the snap rate was the highest out of anyone on any of the wide receivers at 65%, but they weren't playing guys like the last eight, nine minutes of the game. They brought in all the backups. So Myers is going to get a decent amount of play in this spot here. Washington, obviously the other main guy, but he's probably going to be matched up against PS3 for the majority of the game. So boost to Myers there. Myers, since he's been on this team in 10 games, he's scored four touchdowns. Obviously, prior to getting traded there, no touchdowns to the Raiders. And then 2024 only had four touchdowns to the Raiders, but they were a garbage situation. We have to remember, 2023, he had 10 touchdowns. He's a great threat in the red zone. He's a great wide receiver for getting touchdowns. And since he's been on the Jags, he's shown it there. So getting him at plus 320 in a spot where more volume is likely to go to him because of the matchup for Parker Washington just seems like it's a little bit too high.”
“All right, Grant, you are up, and now you've got your team, Seahawks. Seahawks-Cardinals, who do you like in this one to score? Yeah, starting out with the Cardinals side after they upset the Chargers, who looked terrible last week, but we won't get into that. McBride, plus 245. way too high of odds here way too high dude had 11 touchdowns last year i had one last week got 13”
“And on the other side, JSN plus 135. Why are we getting it at plus odds? I don't know. Like, I get that Drew Locke is going to be throwing in the ball. I get Drew Locke's a pretty decent downgrade from Sam Darnold. But he is going to throw the ball to JSN a ton, just like they did with Darnold in the offense last year. In this first game, 11 targets for JSN. He had over a 40% target share in this offense, 24 total passes and 11 targets for JSN. They are going to just hammer the ball to him. The Cardinals defense, not that great. So JSN, this should be not plus odds. And we're getting plus 135, just absolutely silly.”
“I'm starting off with the lowest odds of the day that I have for this entire show. And yes, this is obvious, but I'm going with Jamar Chase minus 116. And I know I don't like taking touchdowns at negative odds,”
“but on the other side I'm going with Egbuka plus 210 and he only had six touchdowns last year, he was not great the second half of the season but what people”
“Panthers. Grant, you're up. What do you like for Bears Panthers? All right, we're starting off with Caleb Williams. You can get around plus 500 at the moment. Odds are just a bit too high. Panthers His run defense was not great last year.”
“And on the other side, going with Jalen Coker, You can get him around plus 300, plus 310. Yeah, you like him. I know that. You kind of talked me into him a little bit when we were talking earlier. Yeah, it's just looking at just how he did at the beginning of the season compared to the end of the season. So last month of the season, he had an 85 snap share. In the playoffs, 12 targets, nine receptions, a touchdown, three red zone targets. Last five games of the regular season, he had three touchdowns. So that's four in the last six games he's played. We're getting at plus 310. And the spot here is going to be a lot tougher for McMillan. So he's likely to get some more volume here.”
“All right, let's move now to Bill's Texans. This one I expect to be a pretty tough defensive matchup. Grant, what do you like for touchdown scores for Bill's Texans? Yeah, we'll start over with the Bills first. I'm going DJ Moore. You can find him around plus 265 at the moment. There's a lot of unknowns in this Bills offense this year.”
“then on the other side Nico Collins like who else is Stroud really going to throw to? I mean, obviously, Higgins out for season. Dell still on the IR. So we got Booty there. We got Hutchinson. We got Noel. Like, it's the Nico Collins show. And, I mean, the connection between Nico and Stroud over the years, whenever they've both been healthy, has just been incredible. So he's going to get absolutely peppered with targets, I think, all game long. Getting him at plus 178, when there were times the last two years when we'd see him down close to plus 110 to score a touchdown. It's just a little bit inflated.”
“Okay, Grant, you are up next, and you have Commanders Eagles. What do you like in that game? Yeah, we're starting off with an old, reliable Dallas Goddard. You can find them around plus 230, plus 240. It'll be interesting to see what this Eagles offense looks like this year. Obviously, A.J. Brown is now gone.”
“Then on the other side, scary Terry McLaurin. You can find him around plus 325. And I know that McLaurin did not look good in almost any weight last year. Obviously, injuries, all that stuff.”
“All right, Monday Night Football, Broncos, Chiefs, the return of Patrick Mahomes, the return of Bo Nix, both coming off of injury. Grant, you are up for this game. Who do you like to score touchdowns for Monday Night Football? Yeah, starting off with one of those guys straight off the bat, Bo Nix plus 600. And I don't know if it's just the fear that he's not going to be as mobile after breaking that bone in his ankle.”
“And on the other side, tough matchup versus Denver, but I'm going with Xavier Worthy, plus 320. Obviously, horrific season last year. One touchdown the entire season. Only played 14 games. Obviously, Mahomes didn't play a lot of them. The Chiefs looked terrible for the majority of the season. But his rookie season had six touchdowns through the air,”
“So that's why I'm on JSN plus 550”
Independent verification agrees: Kenneth Walker III won Super Bowl MVP, not Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
“and then darnold over 35 pass attempts”
Independent verification agrees: Sam Darnold attempted 38 passes, over the 35 line.
“Yeah, so on the Saints side of things, I mean, the only guy really left around is Juwan Johnson. And so I'm picking him for a touchdown. You can find him out around plus 200.”
Independent verification agrees: Juwan Johnson had 3 catches for 61 yards but did not score in the Saints' 19-17 loss to Atlanta.
“Drake London to score a touchdown plus 170.”
Independent verification agrees: Drake London scored a 15-yard TD reception from Kirk Cousins in the Falcons' 19-17 win over the Saints.
“so I just kind of went with the best one in that offense which is Michael Pittman in my opinion so plus 500 on him”
Independent verification agrees: Michael Pittman caught 8 passes but did not score in the Colts' 38-30 loss to Houston.
“Nico Collins, plus 220. [18:46] I don't really see Sauce Gardner playing in this spot.”
Independent verification agrees: Nico Collins caught an 8-yard TD pass from C.J. Stroud in the Texans' 38-30 win over the Colts.
“So like Pollard here at plus 180. And then the other side, I'm going to go with Parker Washington at plus 205. You know, I've brought him up a few times on this show. I just think he's playing at a very high level. right now. And, you know, throughout the season, he's seen his playing time fluctuate because you wouldn't expect Parker Washington to be a top two receiver for the Jaguars this year. But he's proven himself. And, you know, he was limited a bit after he returned in week 15. But last week, he was back to a full time role. He had a 95% routes run rate. Again, he's operating as a clear top two target. He's been really their top target the last couple weeks. and Trevor Lawrence is playing at a high level right now. So love him at plus 205.”
Independent verification agrees: Parker Washington caught 5 passes for 87 yards and a TD in the Jaguars' 41-7 win over Tennessee.
“Let's now move to Chargers-Broncos, where Justin Herbert has been announced that he is going to sit, or at least Jim Harbaugh announced it. So, Grant, you're up. What are we looking at for touchdown props in this game, knowing that Justin Herbert isn't going to play? Yeah, so on the Chargers side of things, there's not really many odds out there. We have no idea which position players are going to even be playing, which defensive players are going to be playing. Chargers really have no reason to risk injury on any of them. But Lance is going to get the start, and that's who I'm rolling with because you can find his odds around 430. And Trey Lance, we haven't seen much of him in his career, but in the games he does end up starting, dude's running a lot. I mean, going all the way back from when he was on San Francisco back in 2022, his only full game. He ran for 54 yards. First season, he had 89 yards rushing in the game. He didn't get into the end zone much, but that's a lot of just variance. He's probably going to be running the ball, especially if he doesn't have a ton of guys to throw to. Obviously, going up against Denver, it's a tough defense, so he's probably going to be forced to scramble because he's going to be on the run a lot. So all these kind of point towards the most likely scenario is Lance going to be the main guy to get into the end zone, depending on who else is playing. So I'm rolling with him at plus 430.”
Independent verification agrees: Trey Lance had no rushing TD (69 rush yards, 1 INT); the Chargers were held to a single field goal in the 19-3 loss.
“So Sutton plus 200 is my pick over there”
Independent verification agrees: Courtland Sutton did not score; Denver's only TD was an interception return in the 19-3 win over the Chargers.
“So, Grant, where do we go for touchdown props in this game? Yeah, I mean, Philly really doesn't have anything to play for. I mean, I don't think they can increase their spot unless the Bears lose. So, I mean, they're still probably going to try and get the two seed, but who knows. I think that Tank Bixby is probably going to be in for a decent workload. So I'm just rolling with him at plus 145. It's just a bit too high of odds.”
Independent verification agrees: Tank Bigsby ran for a 1-yard rushing TD (16 carries, 75 yards) in the Commanders-Eagles Week 18 game.
“And then over on the Washington side of things, I mean, we've got a 39-year-old Josh Johnson on his 27th different team in his career playing. And last week when he played, he was targeting Scary Terry a decent amount. You can get his odds around plus 310 plus 320 depending on where you look. And that's just a bit too high. I mean, he's obviously a very talented receiver. We may see several guys on the defensive end of the Eagles not playing in this spot So the matchup should be a bit easier here Odds are good and that what I rolling with there All right Terry McLaurin plus 310”
Independent verification agrees: Terry McLaurin had 4 receptions for 57 yards and no touchdown in Washington's 24-17 win over the Eagles.
“is uh TreVeyon Henderson at plus 125 and it's just I was kind of in between him and Stevenson ended up going with Henderson.”
Independent verification agrees: TreVeyon Henderson scored two rushing TDs in the Patriots' 38-10 win over the Dolphins.
“And then on the Miami side of things, Waddle is currently questionable, but if he plays plus 330, it just kind of seems silly. silly. I mean, New England's been bad versus wide receiver ones this year. They've been, I think, nearly bottom of the league. Waddle is obviously a very talented wide receiver. They're going to probably be passing a lot because they're big dogs in the spot. So getting him at plus 330 is just ridiculous. So he doesn't end up playing. And I mean, A-chan currently is questionable at the moment. Waller just got put on IR, so he's not playing this week. And a lot of their weapons are not in there, so they're probably going to have to rely on Waddle even more if A-chan doesn't play if waddle doesn't end up playing hn doesn't end up playing i think you can look at ollie gordon who's currently at plus 400 but who knows what the odds will be there but as of right now that waddle plus 330 is just screaming at me so that's what i'm rolling it well waddle to me and again”
Independent verification agrees: Jaylen Waddle did not score in the Dolphins' 38-10 loss to the Patriots.
“I'm going with a backup running back, Keaton Mitchell. [52:56] You can get him at plus 650, which seems a little bit high.”
Independent verification agrees: Keaton Mitchell rushed twice for 2 yards and did not score in the Ravens' 26-24 loss to the Steelers.
“I'm going to go with Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown score. You can get the same word from minus 110, I think, is the best line over at DK”
The NFL gamebook records Jalen Hurts' rushing touchdown, confirming the anytime-touchdown win. (Jalen Hurts: 1 rushing TD)
“I think I'm going with AJ Brown's over, but four and a half reception, I think it like one minus one 60 at four and a half I took the over five and a half It plus one 25 over bet 365 And a lot of people might look at his game log and think this is probably not a great bet but he getting a”
The NFL gamebook records A.J. Brown with three receptions, so over 5.5 lost. (A.J. Brown: 3 receptions)
“But I'm going with Xavier Worthy, anytime touchdown score. Now, you can find this anywhere between, I think, plus 150 and plus 175. I still like it at plus 150.”
The NFL gamebook records Xavier Worthy's two receiving touchdowns in the Eagles' 40-22 win. (Xavier Worthy: 2 receiving TDs)
“We're going with Kareem Hunt to get a touchdown.”
The NFL gamebook records Kareem Hunt with zero touchdowns in the Eagles' 40-22 win. (Kareem Hunt: 0 TD)
“you got well we'll just keep the kc props going i'm rolling with patrick mahomes over you can find anywhere from 260.5 to 262.5 all over the place i think i got it at 255.5 but i mean this line is just way too low”
ESPN's box score lists Mahomes above the unstated passing-yard threshold, so the over won as stored.
“it plays into your first pick give us your second one yeah i'm rolling with rice over 65 67 i think over at mgm at 65 and a half receiving yards”
ESPN's box score lists Rice below the unstated receiving-yard threshold, so the over lost as stored.
“I'm on the Chiefs, and I'm on the Chiefs straight up.”
ESPN records Kansas City as the overtime winner, so the moneyline won as stored.
“But Rashee Rice, over 60 and a half yards, is just a little bit low.”
ESPN's box score lists Rice below the receiving-yard over, so the prop lost as stored.
“Strangely enough, mine's a Detroit under, and it's Jared Goff, under 260 and a half passing yards.”
ESPN's box score lists Goff above the passing-yard under, so the prop lost as stored.
“I'm going heads.”
NFL's Super Bowl game record lists heads as the coin-toss result, so the prop won as stored.
“I'm actually rolling with Devin Singletary, [4:44] over 58.5 rushing yards.”
ESPN's box score lists Singletary below the rushing-yard over, so the prop lost as stored.
“So I'm rolling with Lions over 27 and a half points. You can get this anywhere from minus 104 to minus 115 juice right now on the over. And I was going back and forth between going for the over the entire game and the Lions over. Couldn't quite make a decision. Finally just went with the one with lower juice and went with the team total for the Lions.”
ESPN's final score shows Detroit above the stated team total, so the over won as stored.
“So I'm rolling with Dalton Kincaid over 28 and a half receiving yards and get the same work from 28 and a half to 31 and a half.”
Dalton Kincaid recorded 21 receiving yards, staying Under 28.5 (ESPN Week 16 scoreboard). (Dalton Kincaid 21 receiving yards)
“so the first one is Nick Mullens over 259.5 passing yards i know that seems like a high number for a guy that probably is not a true nfl starter caliber quarterback”
Nick Mullens recorded 411 passing yards, clearing Over 259.5 (ESPN Vikings schedule). (Nick Mullens 411 passing yards)
“but my other pick is actually going to be Detroit over 24 and a half points. They've hit this at a massive clip.”
30-24 — Detroit scored 30 points against Minnesota, clearing the Lions Over 24.5 team total (ESPN Week 16 scoreboard).
“I'm going with Will Levis under 217.5 passing yards.”
ESPN's box score lists Levis above the stated passing-yard under, so the prop lost as stored.
“I get that the total is kind of low at 42.5, but I still don't think it's low enough, especially for a primetime game. I'm not sure it would be low enough for a normal game. I'm betting the trend here. I am betting the trend that primetime games go under and that Kansas City, their offense,”
ESPN's final score exceeded the stated total, so the under lost as stored.
“Miles Sanders over 26 and a half rushing yards.”
ESPN's box score lists Sanders below the stated rushing line, so the over lost as stored.
“Levis under 220.5 passing yards. [23:14] Passing yards under, yeah.”
Will Levis recorded 199 passing yards, staying Under 220.5 (ESPN Week 10 scoreboard). (Will Levis 199 passing yards)
“The last one is the Colts minus 1.5.”
10-6 — Indianapolis beat New England 10-6, covering Colts -1.5 (ESPN Week 10 scoreboard).
“So my first pick is going to be Cleveland Indy. I'm [10:19] taking the under of 41.”
39-38 — Cleveland beat Indianapolis 39-38; the 77-point total went over 41.
“I'm going with Keenan Allen over 78 and a half receiving yards.”
31-17 — Kansas City beat the Chargers 31-17 and Keenan Allen had 55 receiving yards. (Keenan Allen 55 receiving yards)
“It's Justin Herbert under 282 and a half passing yards.”
Los Angeles' box score records Justin Herbert with 305 passing yards, above the stated under (ESPN Week 2 scoreboard). (Justin Herbert 305 passing yards)
“Grant, your second one, you're going back to the quarterback position, player prop angle. Yep. Yeah, this is one that I got at 244.5. I think it's up to 251.5. I still like that. I think it should be at 265, 260 at least in this spot. And it's Trevor Lawrence. I don't know if they're not incorporating any. It just seems like a neutral game line to me. He's going up against the Chiefs, though. Chiefs obviously going to be a high-scoring affair. Should be a close game with a 3.5-point spread. Should be high-scoring with 51.5-point total here. I don't see why they wouldn't let him air the ball out in this spot going up against the Chiefs. They're a below average pass defense. Lawrence, now another year under Doug Peterson, another year of experience. He should only be better. He didn't hit the over in the first game of the season, but it was a weird match going up against the Colts with Richardson's first start. And just the strange overall at this spot, I'm almost certain it's going to be a barn burner here. I see Lawrence having a big game, and we haven't even taken into account the fact that he has Calvin Ridley in the offense now. Ridley was solid in week one. He's one of the better pass catchers in the league, and people forget that because of his suspension. So Lawrence, positive matchup, high-scoring game, better receiving court than last year, another year of experience, and we're getting the line that he basically hit a 50% clip last year. So none of this really makes sense to me, so I really, really like the over in this spot.”
Jacksonville's box score records Trevor Lawrence with 216 passing yards, below the stated over (ESPN Week 2 scoreboard). (Trevor Lawrence 216 passing yards)
“I'm rolling with the under of five and a half rushing yards for Tua.”
Miami's box score records Tua Tagovailoa with 3 rushing yards, staying under 5.5 as stored (ESPN Week 2 scoreboard). (Tua Tagovailoa 3 rushing yards)