Guest · 15-44 on settled picks
| League | futures | prop | spread | total | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1-17-28% | 3-9-52% | 4-6-24% | 1-1 | 9-33-33% |
| NBA | 5-9-32% | — | — | — | 5-9-32% |
“The way into betting the Knicks, I think, and riding the upside, is betting them to sweep Philly. That would be my only Knicks-related bet at the moment”
4-0 — The Knicks swept the 76ers 4-0 in the 2026 Eastern Conference semifinals, clinching with a 144-114 Game 4 win on May 10, 2026 (ESPN).
“so with that being said right and it's it's kind of two different questions at price like would you bet detroit to win the eastern conference at plus 650 with the knicks plus 375 the calves plus 300 the celtics plus 180 at our show sponsor bet mgm and then if you're going to take price out of the equation jay who do you think is going to win the east when and again it's two different questions because price is factored in if you're placing a bet so if you're placing a bet who do you like and when it's all said and done who do you actually think represents the east and maybe it's the same answer in the nba finals presumably against the thunder yeah by the way i think jalen duran's better than jalen brown as well i've got during top of the jalen rankings and brown's probably going to finish fifth in mvp so right so rank it for us it's duran brown brunson or duran brunson brown uh duran brunson brown you know it's funny williams uh jay dub yeah maybe jay dub is he's probably i had to have him above jalen brown if the wrist is fixed we got some good jalons man this is a great year for jalons i think the most underrated player in the league is jalen duran and i think that the two most overrated players in the league are jalen brown and jalen johnson so it's just a jalen yes it's gonna be it's gonna be all pro this year it's like 13 all you're right he's good he's jalen johnson's good it's just i think he's like winged ajante murray or supercharged Josh Giddy. Oh, come on. Supercharged, I mean, God. For killing Jalen Johnson. Winged to Shontay Murray and supercharged Josh Giddy. It's a really good play. He's a really good player, Jalen Johnson. It's just people are talking about him like he's the 10th best player in the league, which he's not. Jalen Duran is. In any case, going back to your original question, I think that the best bet on the board is Detroit at price”
The New York Knicks won the 2026 Eastern Conference (beating Cleveland 4-0 in the conference finals), so Detroit's futures bet to win the East busts (Wikipedia results summary).
“Western Conference, odds board looks a little different. One team is a minus price at BetMGM. That team is the Oklahoma City Thunder. Jay, what about the Western Conference? Who wins the West and goes to the finals and why? I think it's OKC. Boring answer, but I think that OKC to win the West is the best bet on the board.”
Spurs 111, Thunder 103 — The San Antonio Spurs beat Oklahoma City 111-103 in Game 7 to win the 2025-26 Western Conference; the Thunder did not win the conference (ESPN).
“I think the best bet on the board at the moment is Mitch Johnson at 10-1, where his price to win Coach of the Year now is higher than San Antonio's price to get the one seed.”
Joe Mazzulla of the Celtics won the 2025-26 NBA Coach of the Year award; Mitch Johnson finished third in the voting (NBA.com).
“Five seconds. A bet with no context in the awards markets. Something else. Five seconds. Nikola Jokic, MVP, plus 300. I think that he should be a bit more tight with SGA.”
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the 2025-26 NBA MVP award; Nikola Jokic finished second in the voting (NBA.com).
“my bet right now, and I don't think it's a huge edge, but I do think it is a slight edge. And that would be betting on Josh Allen, particularly if you could find prices closer to 18 to one.”
Matthew Stafford won the 2025 AP NFL MVP award, not Josh Allen. (Wikipedia, citing AP)
“I think the bet in this market is Kyle Shanahan”
Mike Vrabel (Patriots) won the 2025 AP NFL Coach of the Year award, not Kyle Shanahan. (NFL.com)
“Seattle minus 27 and a half.”
18-16 — Seahawks beat Colts 18-16; Seattle's -27.5 spread busts (won by only 2). (ESPN box score)
“Colts plus three and a half.”
18-16 — Seahawks beat Colts 18-16; Indianapolis covers +3.5 (lost by only 2). (ESPN box score)
“Yeah, I'll give you Derrick Henry over 85 and a half rushing yards.”
BAL 23, NYJ 10 — Derrick Henry rushed 21 times for 64 yards (2 TDs) as the Ravens beat the Jets 23-10; he missed the 85.5 rushing yards line (ESPN box score). (Derrick Henry: 64 rushing yards)
“Wouldn't be surprised at all if Quinshon Judkins gets 20 carries or more. And if he does, I think that he will be efficient enough to go over 81 and a half rushing yards.”
Quinshon Judkins rushed 22 times for 75 yards in the Jets' 27-20 win over the Browns, short of the 81.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Quinshon Judkins: 22 carries, 75 rushing yards)
“I think that Tyler Warren is the best bet in this market at the moment. Ultimately, I think you just want to take a position against Jackson Dart. And the best way to do that is by betting Tyler Warren right now.”
Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan won the 2025 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award, not Tyler Warren.
“He would be at price, my bet, in this market at 16-1.”
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel won the 2025 AP NFL Coach of the Year award, not Kyle Shanahan.
“I do think the best bet around the Chiefs is that minus 130 to win the division”
The Denver Broncos won the 2025 AFC West at 14-3; Kansas City finished 6-11 in third place (Wikipedia). (2025 AFC West champion: Denver Broncos (14-3))
“My bet in the market right now would be Tyler Warren at plus 650.”
Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan won the 2025 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, not Tyler Warren (NFL.com). (2025 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Tetairoa McMillan)
“I think that Shea is still the best bet in the MVP market.”
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the 2025-26 NBA MVP award (NBA.com). (2025-26 NBA MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
“And that's why my two favorite win totals in the East are under 37.5 on the Pacers and over 39.5 on the Raptors.”
The Indiana Pacers finished the 2025-26 regular season 19-63, well under 37.5 wins (ESPN standings). (Pacers finished 19-63)
“And that's why my two favorite win totals in the East are under 37.5 on the Pacers and over 39.5 on the Raptors.”
The Toronto Raptors finished the 2025-26 regular season 46-36, over 39.5 wins (ESPN standings). (Raptors finished 46-36)
“mason taylor over three and a half receptions which is minus 145 at bed mgm but i think needs to be more aggressively favored”
DEN 13, NYJ 11 — Mason Taylor caught 1 of 3 targets for 2 yards, well under the 3.5-reception line, in Denver's 13-11 win over the Jets in London (ESPN box score). (Mason Taylor: 1 reception)
“I think not so much for the game specifically, but I think the weight into the Chiefs is to bet them now 10 to 1 to win the Super Bowl.”
SEA 29, NE 13 — The Seattle Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13 over the New England Patriots; the Kansas City Chiefs did not reach or win the Super Bowl (Wikipedia, citing official NFL results).
“my favorite bet, Detroit, minus 10 against Cincinnati.”
DET 37, CIN 24 — Lions beat Bengals 37-24, easily covering as -10 favorites (ESPN).
“my bet in this market and I understand it's not super sexy because the team isn't super sexy but I don't think Teddero and McMillan can be 12 to 1”
Tetairoa McMillan won the 2025 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award (Wikipedia, citing AP).
“the thunder to win the title is going to be one of my biggest ever bets”
The New York Knicks won the 2026 NBA Finals over the San Antonio Spurs 4-1; Oklahoma City Thunder did not win the 2025-26 NBA championship (NBA.com).
“in the nhl uh the lightning would be my bets uh and outright”
The Carolina Hurricanes won the 2026 Stanley Cup Final over the Vegas Golden Knights; Tampa Bay Lightning did not win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup (NHL.com).
“my favorite bet on the board the over in Rams Colts which is 49 and a half”
LAR 27, IND 20 — Rams beat Colts 27-20 (combined 47 points); over 49.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“but Derrick Henry's rushing prop is set in the mid-80s. I think it's been hovering around 83.5, and I think that that is baking in last year a little bit too much and not baking in enough, that this Chiefs run defense is excellent and has been for a while now. Think about what they did to the Chargers in week one where Chris Jones basically just swallowed up a Marion Hampton and that entire Chargers run game. Think about what Saquon Barkley wasn't able to do against the Chiefs as well. So I think that Henry is, he hasn't played at the same level as last year, clearly. I think it's a red flag, the fact that he could even possibly have a game where he went 11 for 23 against the Browns. I think this game is going to be a bit more on Lamar Jackson's shoulders, which are perfectly fine shoulders to put a game upon. But I think the Chiefs' run defense is excellent. I think that Henry, who at the best of the times, really only plays half the snaps. And this team, I think, is a little bit more susceptible with their defense to not being in ultra-run scripts as well. So I think it'll be a close game. I think it might be an ugly-ish game because I don't think these teams are humming at the moment. but I would take the under on Henry's rushing yards.”
KC 37, BAL 20 — Derrick Henry rushed 8 times for 42 yards as the Chiefs beat the Ravens 37-20; under 83.5 rushing yards covers (ESPN box score). (Derrick Henry: 42 rushing yards)
“I like the Packers, minus seven in Dallas.”
DAL 40, GB 40 — Packers and Cowboys tied 40-40 in overtime; Packers margin of 0 does not cover -7, so the spread bet busts (ESPN box score).
“All right, I'll go back to my point about the Rams, plus three and a half against the Eagles.”
PHI 33, LAR 26 — Eagles beat Rams 33-26 on a blocked-FG return TD; Rams +3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, so I'm with you, Femi, jumping on the Jonathan trailer, Jonathan trailer, train. Jonathan Taylor, offensive player of the year, train, bandwagon, bus, leaving the station. I don't think he should be 15 to 1.”
Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba won the 2025 AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year award; Jonathan Taylor did not win (NFL.com). (2025 AP Offensive Player of the Year: Jaxon Smith-Njigba)
“But I like the Atlanta Falcons to win the NFC South. And the reason why is that this Bucs offensive line situation is now just a huge problem. Luke Deckey, who is a huge part of that O-line, he's going on IR. Cody Muck, whose name I can't really pronounce, but he is done for the season. And then Tristan Wirfs is banged up and will come back, but who knows what he's going to look like, at least as he ramps up. The Bucs, they're playing a first-place schedule. They have a tough schedule than the Falcons. And the Falcons right now, even though they did play 50% of their season has been against J.J. McCarthy, so not the greatest offenses they've faced, but the Falcons have the number one defense in the NFL by EPA per play. Their defense has looked great. I don't expect it to be the number one defense, but there's more upside there than I anticipated. I think Michael Penix will continue to grow into the season. And this Falcons run game is just awesome. Like Bijan Robinson, he just looks different to every player in the NFL. The way that he turns two-yard losses into six-yard gains is like nothing else in the league. I would still like to see a few more explosives on the ground from him. But with him and Algier, that O-line, with Penix's upside on how the defense is playing and just being healthier, I think the Falcons can absolutely win. The NFC South, they're plus 250, and that's value for me.”
The Carolina Panthers (8-9) won the 2025 NFC South, clinched on the final week of the season; Atlanta Falcons did not win the division (NFL.com). (2025 NFC South champion: Carolina Panthers)
“My favorite bet on the card is the Seattle Seahawks plus three in Pittsburgh.”
SEA 31, PIT 17 — Seahawks beat Steelers 31-17 outright, covering the +3 spread.
“I have a bet on the Saints to make the playoffs, which looks, I think, well, they lost the game, but I feel almost better about it at a 10-1”
The New Orleans Saints finished the 2025 regular season 6-11 and did not qualify for the playoffs. (New Orleans Saints: 6-11, did not qualify)
“I would take them over the field to win the title.”
The Las Vegas Aces won the 2025 WNBA championship, sweeping the Phoenix Mercury 4-0; the Minnesota Lynx were eliminated in the semifinals by Phoenix and did not win the title.
“A.J. Brown, who's set in the low 70, 71.5 receiving yards, I think he will go over.”
PHI 24-DAL 20 — A.J. Brown caught 1 pass for 8 receiving yards in the Eagles' 24-20 win over the Cowboys, well under his 71.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (A.J. Brown: 8 receiving yards)
“My favorite bet on the board in terms of sides is Seattle at home as an underdog at plus two and a half.”
SF 17-SEA 13 — 49ers beat Seahawks 17-13 on Sept 7, 2025; Seattle lost outright by 4, missing the +2.5 spread (ESPN final score).
“So I think that that is the best coach of the year bet.”
Patriots' Mike Vrabel won the 2025 AP NFL Coach of the Year award at NFL Honors; Aaron Glenn did not win (NFL.com). (Coach of the Year: Mike Vrabel)
“if the Saints make the playoffs then Kellen Moore who's in the 30 to 1 range”
Patriots' Mike Vrabel won the 2025 AP NFL Coach of the Year award; Kellen Moore did not win (NFL.com). (Coach of the Year: Mike Vrabel)
“It's Josh Simmons at 125-1, the first-round left tackle for the Chiefs.”
Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan won the 2025 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award; Josh Simmons did not win (NFL.com). (Offensive Rookie of the Year: Tetairoa McMillan)
“So it's the Seahawks going up against the Niners as dogs at home. I understand the bullishness on the Niners. I just very much worry about two things. One, they don't seem to have any wide receivers for this game. They are, yeah, the Seahawks are two and a half point dogs at home.”
SF 17, SEA 13 — 49ers beat Seahawks 17-13; Seattle's -4 margin fails to cover +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, so the bet that I would make on the board at the moment, and it's not the most appetizing because it's a minus money price. But I think that Aaron Judge will just win MVP so long as he stays healthy and the Yankees don't completely implode. And if they do completely implode, but he maintains being Aaron Judge and doing Aaron Judge things for the next seven weeks, then I think that he would win anyway. So I think that that is a reasonable parlay leg, Judge MVP. I think that people have perhaps lost track of just how significant the gap is statistically between Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh, who has really kind of fallen off since the start of July. I think people also forget that Cal Raleigh before this year was like a 770 OPS type of guy. And this season has come largely out of nowhere. And a lot of the underlying stuff with Raleigh is real, but he's likely meeting outcome. is he going to hit in the 240s, which I do think will turn off some voters. So I think the judge, so long as his elbow stays intact and so long as either he keeps playing, you know, as he should, being Aaron Judge, or he, you know, drops off a bit but the Yankees still make the playoffs, I think that he is tier one by himself for MVP. And I think he's more, you know, 80% and above than the 75% that minus 300 implies at BetMGM.”
Aaron Judge won the 2025 American League MVP award (Wikipedia, citing BBWAA voting results). (2025 AL MVP: Aaron Judge)
“They'd be my favorite bet of anyone to win their respective division at the moment.”
The Chicago Bears won the 2025 NFC North with an 11-6 record; the Packers did not win the division (Wikipedia, 2025 NFL season standings). (2025 NFC North champion: Chicago Bears (11-6))
“So I think the way to attack this is to bet the Cardinals to win the NFC West. They're plus 450.”
The Seattle Seahawks won the 2025 NFC West with a 14-3 record; the Cardinals did not win the division (Wikipedia, 2025 NFL season standings). (2025 NFC West champion: Seattle Seahawks (14-3))
“My guy in this market, and he's not super inspiring because, well, at least he's not super exciting and new because he's always in this discussion, but I think TJ Watt is more likely to win Defensive Player of the Year than Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett, and he is not priced that way.”
Myles Garrett won the 2025 AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year award; T.J. Watt did not win (Wikipedia, citing AP award results). (2025 AP Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett)
“So this team finds a way to screw me every year, but I'll go back to the well on the Clippers, over 46.5. It's just minus 120 to the over”
42-40 — Los Angeles Clippers finished the 2025-26 NBA regular season 42-40 (ESPN team schedule), falling short of the Over 46.5 wins line.
“But so my banger adjacent pick for NFL MVP, or my take on the market broadly, is that basically Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes are all priced basically the same. Lamar is plus 550, Allen and Burrow 6-1, Mahomes plus 650. I think Lamar Jackson is materially more likely than the other three to win MVP.”
Matthew Stafford (Rams) won the 2025 AP NFL MVP award at NFL Honors, narrowly over Drake Maye; Lamar Jackson did not win.
“No, it's a little boring, but I do think that OKC is still the bet at minus 115.”
OKC 124, MIN 94 (Game 5, series 4-1) — Oklahoma City beat Minnesota 4-1 in the 2025 Western Conference Finals, clinching with a 124-94 Game 5 win on May 28, 2025 (NBA.com box score).
“I think the best bet on the board is still Norman Powell to win most improved player.”
Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels won the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award; Norman Powell did not win (NBA.com).
“So my favorite prop this week is DeAndre Hopkins, over 11 and a half receiving.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — DeAndre Hopkins caught 2 passes for 18 receiving yards (with a TD) in Super Bowl LIX, over the 11.5-yard receiving line (ESPN box score). (DeAndre Hopkins: 18 receiving yards)
“I think the bet to be made right now in the outright market is the Cavs at 8-1 to win the title.”
The Oklahoma City Thunder won the 2024-25 NBA championship, defeating the Indiana Pacers 4-3 in the NBA Finals; Cleveland was eliminated by Indiana in the conference semifinals and did not win the title.
“my favorite bet for the Super Bowl so far is Jalen Hurts to throw over 26 and a half pass attempts.”
Jalen Hurts went 17-of-22 passing for 221 yards and 2 TDs in Super Bowl LIX on Feb 9, 2025, finishing under the 26.5 pass-attempts line (ESPN box score). (22 pass attempts (17/22, 221 yds, 2 TD))
“I'm taking Patrick Mahomes under 26 and a half rushing yards”
Patrick Mahomes rushed for 43 yards on 11 carries in the Chiefs' 32-29 AFC Championship win over the Bills, exceeding the 26.5-yard under line (ESPN box score). (Mahomes 43 rushing yards)
“my favorite bet in this game uh is in the prop market i look at austin ekela over 23 and a half receiving yards”
Austin Ekeler caught 5 passes for 17 receiving yards in the NFC Championship, falling short of the 23.5-yard over line (ESPN box score). (Ekeler 17 receiving yards)
“I think the bet to be made, and I think the guy who should be favorite in the market, is Norman Powell, who's plus 400.”
Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels won the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award; Norman Powell did not win (NBA.com).
“So I'll go Saturday as well. My favorite prop is Travis Kelsey over 52 and a half receiving yards.”
Travis Kelce caught 7 passes for 117 yards and a TD in Kansas City's 23-14 divisional-round win over Houston on Jan 18, 2025, clearing the 52.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Kelce 117 receiving yards)
“So I think the Chiefs will win, but certainly at price, I'd take the Texans plus 8.5.”
23-14 — Kansas City beat Houston 23-14 in the divisional round on Jan 18, 2025; the Texans lost by 9, failing to cover +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“So my look in this game would be the commander's team total over 23 and a half.”
45-31 — Washington scored 45 points in its 45-31 divisional-round win over Detroit on Jan 18, 2025, clearing the 23.5 team-total line (ESPN box score).
“So my favorite bet here is Jalen Hurts over 25 and a half pass attempts.”
Jalen Hurts completed 15 of 20 pass attempts for 128 yards in Philadelphia's 28-22 divisional-round win over the Rams on Jan 19, 2025, missing the 25.5-attempt line (ESPN box score). (Hurts 20 pass attempts)
“I'm going to take Joe Mixon under 18 and a half rushing attempts.”
HOU 32, LAC 12 — Joe Mixon carried 25 times for 106 yards and a TD in Houston's 32-12 AFC wild-card win over the Chargers on Jan 11, 2025, well over the 18.5-attempt line (ESPN box score). (Joe Mixon: 25 rushing attempts)
“Sounds like you like Houston in the game plus the three points. Am I right in saying that Houston is a three point home dog against the Chargers? I do like the Texans”
HOU 32, LAC 12 — Texans beat the Chargers 32-12 in the AFC wild card (Jan 11, 2025); Houston won outright and covered the +3 spread (ESPN box score).