“but the Astros looking to pick up another win over the Angels today, but offensively for Houston, though, Jeremy, who do you like? Yeah, I mean, look, I think it's easy enough to go look at a guy like Jordan Alvarez, especially with the matchup against Grayson Rodriguez. And I can't fault anyone for doing that. The only issue, I bet a lot of over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs. I find guys that fit my algorithm in great game environments or great matchups according to the pitcher and hitter. Jeremy Pena is showing up in my top 15 hitters today. And I like his odds a little bit better. I think he's a guy that's locked in. And with Grayson Rodriguez, yeah, he can get his Ks or he used to be able to do that. He's hitting more bats his days, can get wild. And I like the fact that Pena's hitting in front of Jordan Alvarez and it gives him some opportunities to see more fastballs. Give me Jeremy Pena over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs today. I think it's a great play.”
Jeremy Kahn
Sports Betting Analyst · 75-67 on settled picks
Bankroll
Last 10: 3-7 Net units over time, 1 unit staked per pick · 26 settled daysWhere the picks cash
record by league and market · ROI + color appear at ≥5 decided picks (smaller samples are noise)| League | total | moneyline | prop | futures | spread | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 36-27+9% | 17-8+26% | 4-17-52% | 1-2 | 0-1 | 58-55-1% |
| NFL | — | 1-0 | — | 3-5-28% | 2-1 | 6-6-5% |
| WNBA | 0-1 | 1-0 | — | — | 5-0+91% | 6-1+64% |
| NBA | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | 0-1 | — | 1-4-62% |
Picks
143 total · 1 pending“Yeah, I'm going to sound very homerish since I'm in Baltimore and tell you to take the Orioles to avoid the sweep. But I love getting Kyle Braddish at plus money.”
BAL 1, NYY 6 — Baltimore Orioles lost; moneyline busts.
“I think the Orioles at plus money is a great bet. And just to add to that too, when I'm looking at it, Kyle Braddish over five and a half Ks looks like a great prop bet to me. It's juiced up a little bit, but my algorithm has them getting over six. So I like that play a lot.”
BAL 1, NYY 6 — Kyle Bradish: 5 strikeouts vs over 5.5; busts. (Kyle Bradish: 5 strikeouts)
“[3:59] How's that going to look? [4:00] So your offensive line, [4:01] your pass rush, [4:02] we find out tomorrow what it looks like, [4:04] but yeah, [4:04] I do like, [4:05] I'm going to take the Ravens plus the points, [4:08] but I don't feel great about it. [4:10] Jeremy would you do anything with them in the futures market anything with the win total anything with them in the division AFC odds maybe season-long player props did you bet anything with them I didn't because it's so funny their win total being 10 and a half and somebody's like hey what do you think the record is going to be and I was like I don't know 11 and 6 10 and 7 somewhere around there I think they win the division you know I think the division is going to be tougher they are a boring team to bet on unless you're doing some season-long player props I'd look at the rushing stuff but even then with the wide receivers you got two”
KC 27, BAL 20 — Chiefs beat Ravens 27-20; Baltimore (+3) lost by 7, missing the cover (ESPN box score).
“[7:02] Jeremy, what about survivor pool? [7:04] Obviously week one, everybody's getting into their pools. [7:06] They're all locked in. [7:07] Cincinnati seems like the easy choice. [7:10] Are you going chalk this week or are you taking a little bit of a risk maybe with another team on the board? [7:15] Man, I always get risky week one. [7:16] It's like, hey, some of the pools have buybacks. [7:20] The one that I like that's going to be a little popular, I think, but Cincinnati is going to dominate it. [7:26] I like Seattle. [7:27] You get Mike McDonald against a rookie quarterback. [7:29] They're going to be at home. [7:30] I don't like this Denver team at all. [7:32] I think that's where Costas and I differ. [7:34] I don't like Bo Nix. [7:35] So I think he gives him a lot of trouble. [7:38] And how good Bo Nix looked in the preseason has a lot to do with how vanilla the defenses were, in my opinion. [7:43] But I like the Seattle team a lot. [7:45] You know, if I want to get super cute, which it's hard for me to ever be that with this face and this beard, you know, like I'd look at the Colts, you know, at home against the Texans.”
SEA 26, DEN 20 — Seahawks beat Broncos 26-20; Seattle wins outright for the survivor selection (ESPN box score).
“[26:41] Tonight, well after we go off the air, 10-10. [26:45] First pitch this evening, the Giants at the Mariners. [26:49] Birdsong on the bump for San Francisco. [26:52] Castillo on the bump for the Mariners tonight. [26:54] The Mariners minus 155 on the money line, plus 145 on the run line. [27:00] The over-under of this game set at just seven. [27:03] is there any play for you here with the with the turn moil with the turn over with a first time [27:11] manager who has never been in charge before I'm going to work on the assumption Dan Wilson's [27:17] probably forgotten more about baseball than I'll ever know but never sat there never turned in a [27:23] lineup card is there any play for you on this Giants Mariners game tonight or do you maybe let [27:29] this one wash over and and kind of get a view a 36,000 foot view of what Seattle is before we make [27:36] any plays there no it's one of my top plays tonight I'm on the under now I understand people [27:41] wanting to bet the side do the Mariners show up we could also look at it excuse me and say Luis [27:45] Castillo shows up tonight Aiden Birdsong shows up tonight and strikes out the Mariners the way [27:50] they've been doing it I don't expect and look I know things uh when somebody gets fired or you [27:55] A manager gets kicked out of the game. [27:57] You're hoping to inspire your team, and then they get it going. [28:00] I don't see any reason from what I've watched all year long that Seattle's all of a sudden going to start hitting because Scott Service is gone. [28:07] I don't buy into that. [28:08] They're going to come out tonight. [28:09] They're going to strike out a bunch. [28:11] They're probably going to run into one or two, and then they'll hopefully win the game for their sake. [28:15] But what I fully believe happens is we see some zeros on that board for a while. [28:19] Somebody scratches out a couple of runs, and that's that. [28:22] So I like the under a lot tonight. [28:24] And, you know, we talked about it. [28:25] the Mariners how many people are just saying I taking that pitcher over strikeouts every time they play the Mariners and betting it blindly is something I normally don tell people to do I can argue with it That what you doing because I be honest I been doing that with left handed pitching against the Pirates So betting the over strikeouts for the opposing pitcher there So I don I don think it matters as much in the grand scheme of things [28:47] So I'm going to stay with my under and I think it's a good play.”
SEA 6, SF 5 — Mariners beat Giants 6-5 in 10 innings on Aug 23, 2024, a combined 11 runs, over the 7 total (ESPN box score).
“[9:41] but I do like the Orioles tonight for some reason. [9:43] Anytime I see the Orioles as an underdog at home or like even money, [9:47] I'm taking it. [9:48] They've been a great home team. [9:50] I know they've been in the dredges and haven't played well, [9:53] but I still like this Orioles team to pull off an upset at pretty close to [9:56] even money in some places, [9:57] plus money over the Astros. [9:59] I know it's a tall task and something to ask for. [10:01] It's a smaller play for me, but it's something I like.”
BAL 7, HOU 5 — Orioles beat Astros 7-5, capped by an Anthony Santander eighth-inning grand slam (ESPN box score); Baltimore moneyline cashes.
“[32:14] I also like the under in the Mets and Padres at 7.5 tonight. [32:19] It's not as good as a pitching matchup that we had last night, [32:21] but I think it can be sneaky good tonight when we're looking at the likes of Joe Musgrove going up against this Mets team. [32:29] And, you know, as I started looking at some of how these players are rating out today, [32:33] Paul Blackburn for the Mets, what do we know about him? [32:35] He's solid, sufficient. [32:36] I don't think he's a guy that's going to come out and dominate you, [32:39] but I think he gives you six good innings tonight. [32:41] He might give up a run or two. [32:43] Again, I like it to go under the seven and a half.”
SD 7, NYM 0 — Padres shut out the Mets 7-0 behind Joe Musgrove (ESPN box score); combined 7 runs, under 7.5 covers.
“[32:53] Other plays that I like, I like, there's a couple things that stand out to me, [32:57] and I brought up the Milwaukee game as one of them that I'm going to be on. [33:00] You look at the Brewers, and of course, they're going up against the A's. [33:05] That's the, I brought up what J.P. Sears has done his last four games. [33:09] He's been amazing. [33:11] Sorry. [33:11] So anyway, when you look at what J.P. Sears has done, [33:14] Milwaukee's going to try out a good pitcher to go up against them as well. [33:18] So when you're looking at the pitching matchup, [33:19] I think you have to like it for the simple fact that these teams, [33:23] when you look at Aaron Savali, [33:24] who's been much better since joining the Brewers, [33:26] not telling you he's a world beater, [33:27] but you just got to eliminate the long ball from this A's team and not give up [33:31] some free passes. [33:32] So they're stealing. [33:33] I think this is a great underspot for tonight at seven and a half.”
MIL 11, OAK 3 — Brewers routed the Athletics 11-3 (ESPN box score); combined 14 runs, under 7.5 busts.
“[2:27:19] Are you fading them and making a divisional bet for the Indianapolis Colts? [2:27:22] Or are you kind of hanging off on this one to see how it plays out for a week or two, [2:27:25] like Johnny V said? [2:27:27] No, I'm betting it.”
The Houston Texans clinched the AFC South for a second straight season in 2024, finishing 10-7; Indianapolis did not win the division (ESPN).
“[2:31:44] The Falcons feel like an easy layup to me, Jeremy Kahn. [2:31:49] Where do you finish? [2:31:51] Yeah, I've been on that. [2:31:52] It's the one chalky pick that I think I can't get away from”
Tampa Bay won the 2024 NFC South at 10-7; Atlanta did not win the division (Wikipedia, citing NFL results).
“[2:49:14] Everyone is so scared of those big numbers. [2:49:17] Give me the Liberty. [2:49:18] Give me the Dallas Wings to go over 176.5.”
NY 79, DAL 71 — New York Liberty beat Dallas Wings 79-71 on Aug 22, 2024, a combined 150 points, under the 176.5 total (ESPN box score).
“[2:49:56] So I think we get a Braves win and an over in that eight total.”
ATL 3, PHI 2 — Braves beat Phillies 3-2 on Aug 22, 2024, a combined 5 runs, under the 8 total (ESPN box score).
“[2:49:54] I like Matt Olson to go yard tonight.”
Matt Olson went 0-for-HR (one double) in Atlanta's 3-2 win over Philadelphia on Aug 22, 2024, so he did not hit a home run (ESPN box score). (Matt Olson: 0 HR)
“[27:12] So I would go under that five and a half, and I'd take that plus money.”
10-7 — Denver finished the 2024 NFL regular season 10-7, well over 5.5 wins, so the Broncos under 5.5 wins bet lost (ESPN final standings).
“[29:47] beat up on Woods Richardson and I'm hoping the twins can just get to Waldron a little bit and [29:51] maybe get to that Padres bullpen um but I do like the over of eight and a half there”
MIN 11, SD 4 — Twins beat Padres 11-4, a combined 15 runs, over the 8.5 total (ESPN box score).
“[29:57] the other two games but one thing I in some of the research I was doing I really like Corbin Carroll [30:01] tonight I think he's a he's a good play for over one and a half bases”
ARI 10, MIA 8 — Corbin Carroll went 1-for-4 with a single for 1 total base against Miami, below the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (Corbin Carroll 1 TB)
“[30:01] tonight I think he's a he's a good play for over one and a half bases I even bet him to hit a home [30:06] run which is a little bit more of a long shot but I get it but I still like him in that spot”
ARI 10, MIA 8 — Corbin Carroll did not hit a home run against Miami, going 1-for-4 with a single (ESPN box score). (Corbin Carroll 0 HR)
“[43:03] They have the best bullpen in baseball. [43:05] I like this spot to go under the 8.5, [43:07] half, especially with everybody on the over.”
NYY 8, CLE 1 — Yankees beat Guardians 8-1, a combined 9 runs, over the 8.5 total so the under bet lost (ESPN box score).
“[43:19] but my two favorite plays tonight are Seattle, Seattle and LA under seven and a half”
LAD 8, SEA 4 — Dodgers beat Mariners 8-4, a combined 12 runs, over the 7.5 total so the under bet lost (ESPN box score).
“[43:19] but my two favorite plays tonight are Seattle, Seattle and LA under seven and a half and the [43:23] Cubs in Detroit under seven and a half Wrigley wind blowing in colder temps.”
DET 8, CHC 2 — Tigers beat Cubs 8-2, a combined 10 runs, over the 7.5 total so the under bet lost (ESPN box score).
“[2:41] But I have the Cubs and Cardinals under. [2:44] The Cubs did me a disservice last night. [2:45] And as I'm watching the game, I'm looking at it and going, man, Eric Fetty just doesn't have it today. [2:51] He's getting behind in counts. [2:54] And then he just gets to the bottom of the lineup. [2:56] They're the ones that get on base. [2:57] And then he just gave up a three-run bomb to their catcher that's hitting like, what's he hitting, 200? [3:04] But it's one of those days, man. [3:06] Now I'm going to have to sweat this damn thing out and rely on the bullpens to keep it under the eight.”
CHC 6, STL 3 — Cubs beat Cardinals 6-3 (combined 9 runs), busting the under 8 (ESPN box score).
“[2:38:25] The Royals and Detroit to go under, that's 7.”
KC 9, DET 2 — Royals beat Tigers 9-2 (combined 11 runs), busting the under 7 (ESPN box score).
“[2:18:54] anything for you tonight uh jeremy and brewers nats yeah i played the nats small uh jake irvin”
Milwaukee 8, Washington 3 — Washington lost to Milwaukee 8-3, busting the Nationals moneyline (ESPN box score).
“[2:25:22] He's in the top 10 hitters today. [2:25:24] I think Matt Chapman's in a great spot against Andrew Abbott, [2:25:26] who's been giving up a ton of hard contact. [2:25:28] Like him for a homer.”
Matt Chapman went 0-for-1 with no home run against Cincinnati (ESPN box score, Giants at Reds). (Matt Chapman: 0-for-1, 0 HR)
“[2:25:39] The other two guys, just to mention it real quick, [2:25:42] Corbin Carroll showing up. [2:25:43] And I know he's a good player, [2:25:44] but we all understand the season that he's been having, [2:25:46] but he's been hitting better as of late. [2:25:48] He shot up. [2:25:49] And Austin Riley's third on my chart behind Aaron Judge [2:25:51] and Shohei Otani. [2:25:53] It's not typical that you see that, [2:25:54] but he's a really good player. [2:25:56] We know that, and I love him for a home run. [2:25:58] So those are the three guys that I played in this game.”
Corbin Carroll went 1-for-5 with a triple but no home run against Pittsburgh (ESPN box score, Diamondbacks at Pirates). (Corbin Carroll: 1-for-5 (triple), 0 HR)
“[2:38:21] I like the Tampa-Houston under at 7.5.”
Houston 3, Tampa Bay 2 — Houston beat Tampa Bay 3-2 (combined 5 runs), clearing the under 7.5 (ESPN box score).
“[2:34:49] I took the over at 8.5.”
Colorado 5, San Diego 2 — Colorado beat San Diego 5-2 (combined 7 runs), busting the over 8.5 (ESPN box score).
“[2:36:58] I'll take the Seattle Mariners as one of my top plays today.”
Seattle 10, Philadelphia 2 — Seattle beat Philadelphia 10-2, covering the Mariners moneyline (ESPN box score).
“[2:20:54] It was my favorite play today. [2:20:55] I like the under in the Giants and A's. [2:20:57] That Robbie Ray versus J Sears Outside of one little hiccup over the past six games Sears has actually been okay and I like the fact that both teams traded you know you look at both these teams the A didn do enough There was rumors they were going to trade Brent Rooker [2:21:10] but Jorge Soler is now gone. [2:21:12] You look at this San Francisco Giants team [2:21:13] is going to look a little bit different. [2:21:15] I like the under of seven and a half in that game.”
Oakland 5, San Francisco 2 — Oakland beat San Francisco 5-2, a combined 7 runs, staying under 7.5.
“[2:21:17] Conversely, I like the under in the Dodgers Padres as well. [2:21:20] That's seven and a half.”
San Diego 6, Los Angeles Dodgers 5 (10 innings) — San Diego beat the Dodgers 6-5 in 10 innings, a combined 11 runs, busting the under 7.5.
“[2:21:21] And I'm going to the well here [2:21:22] with that Red Sox Mariners over. [2:21:24] It's 10 and a half.”
Seattle 10, Boston 6 — Seattle beat Boston 10-6, a combined 16 runs, clearing over 10.5.
“[2:21:31] I like Diamondbacks minus 165. [2:21:34] It's another thing there. [2:21:35] I really like the way that Ryan Nelson's been pitching.”
Arizona 17, Washington 0 — Arizona routed Washington 17-0, so the Diamondbacks moneyline cashed.
“[2:32:12] hopefully not bitter tonight to uh to increase the old payout what do you got you might want to [2:32:16] check the expiration date on that uh plus 330 rafael devers off of luis”
Rafael Devers homered against the Mariners on July 30, driving in 4 runs. (Rafael Devers: 1 HR, 4 RBI)
“[2:34:47] They were planning on a bullpen game in game two. [2:34:50] This could get ugly tonight. [2:34:51] I love the over tonight at nine.”
Toronto 8, Baltimore 4 — Toronto beat Baltimore 8-4 in the July 29 nightcap, a combined 12 runs, clearing the over 9.
“[2:35:07] My favorite plays today would be that Mets over. [2:35:09] I do like the Yankees and Phillies over nine.”
New York Yankees 14, Philadelphia 4 — The Yankees beat the Phillies 14-4, a combined 18 runs, clearing the over 9.
“[2:35:26] my chances um as i mentioned i had the orioles earlier today and i like the over in that royals [2:35:31] white socks game at nine”
Kansas City 8, Chicago White Sox 5 — The Royals beat the White Sox 8-5, a combined 13 runs, clearing the over 9.
“[2:39:18] little upset because my favorite home run play the odds are down on him um but i like salvador [2:39:23] perez to go yaya tonight he's i saw him he's like two to one maybe you can find better odds out there”
Salvador Perez went 2-for-5 with an RBI but did not homer against the White Sox. (Salvador Perez: 0 HR (2-for-5, 1 RBI))
“[2:56:14] Love the Phillies over. [2:56:15] I saw it was first and second, two out for the Guardians. [2:56:18] They've already scored a run. [2:56:19] I got it at eight.”
3-1 — Cleveland beat Philadelphia 3-1, a combined 4 runs, well under the over 8 total.
“[2:09:55] I love the lefty power going up against Lively. [2:09:57] I mean, you're going to love that lefty power every game with Schwarber and Harper. [2:10:01] But today's a really good day where I think the ball carries. [2:10:04] I even took Schwarber for a home run.”
Kyle Schwarber went 1-for-2 with 2 walks and did not hit a home run. (Kyle Schwarber: 0 HR)
“[2:11:15] in that game either and nothing for me in the Rays and Reds game with a total of seven and a half [2:11:21] Lodolo on the mound against Boz and the Rays minus 115, the Reds minus 105. [2:11:26] You do like a play, though, on the total in this game. [2:11:29] Yeah, it's one of my top plays. [2:11:31] So the Phillies over is a top play for me, and this Reds raise under.”
3-2 — Cincinnati beat Tampa Bay 3-2 in 10 innings, a combined 5 runs, under the 7.5 total.
“[2:14:03] Yeah, I love the Blue Jays. [2:14:04] It's a top play for me, so I've already covered a couple of them. [2:14:07] But Blue Jays in a great spot. [2:14:08] I'll bet on Kikuchi over Haney with that right-handed lineup the Jays have.”
6-5 — Toronto beat Texas 6-5 on a walk-off single; the Blue Jays moneyline covers.
“[2:49:41] This was a smaller play for me. [2:49:42] I took the over. [2:49:44] It's really tough, man, because when I look at this game, [2:49:47] I like both pitchers. [2:49:49] It's hard to get away from George Kirby, who's one of the – [2:49:52] he doesn't walk a lot of guys. [2:49:53] He gets a lot of ground balls. [2:49:55] He'll get a couple of strikeouts. [2:49:56] and this White Sox team is just dreadful. [2:49:59] But, you know, when you're looking at Drew Thorpe, [2:50:01] who was the key piece back in that Dylan Seas trade, [2:50:04] he's coming along, he'll get his strikeouts, [2:50:06] but he does give up some hard contact. [2:50:07] And with a seven and a half there, [2:50:09] I'm going to take my chances with the over in this spot at seven and a half.”
10-0 — Seattle beat Chicago 10-0, a combined 10 runs, over the 7.5 total.
“[2:51:33] Kyle Hendricks against Brady Singer tonight, Cubs and Royals. [2:51:37] KC minus 150 on the money line, Cubs plus 1-25 with a total of 9. [2:51:41] Did you do anything in Cubs, Royals? [2:51:43] Yeah, top play for me is the over here.”
6-0 — Kansas City beat Chicago 6-0, a combined 6 runs, under the over 9 total.
“[2:53:11] yeah weather supports the under tonight too and and i love this pitching matchup by the way i was [2:53:16] on the under in that game as well and to my shock giving up five runs and watching them both get [2:53:21] tatted around they're both good pitchers sonny gray's one of the better pitchers in the national [2:53:26] league being at home weather supporting the under it's one of my top plays today one of my favorite [2:53:30] plays taking that under seven and a half”
10-8 — Washington beat St. Louis 10-8 in 10 innings, a combined 18 runs, well over the under 7.5 total.
“I like the Chiefs week one tell you give me uh that to even like a juice two and a half on Kansas City”
KC 27, BAL 20 — Kansas City beat Baltimore 27-20 in the 2024 Week 1 opener, covering the -2.5 spread (ESPN).
“this week not a bad gig uh green bay's win total jeremy following a trip to the divisional rounds of the postseason last year nine and a half over minus 140 so expectation is green bay is going to win double digit games this year jordan loves mvp price 14 to 1 not that he can't win i would never bet that price and i said this last week when lamar jackson won his first mvp and obviously that was like his first full season as the starter 66 to 1 now jordan loves like 14 to 1 i don't know if that's a bet I can make. And Green Bay in week one. Now the game is in Brazil. So maybe there's kind of like a handicap that we may be missing right now. Like what's the weather going to be like? What are the playing conditions of the field going to be like? As of right now, Green Bay, a small underdog to Philly in Sao Paulo Friday night, September 6th. Jeremy, lay it out for us, please. All your betting thoughts coming up on the 2024 Green Bay Packers and their quarterback, Jordan Love. I like this Packers team. I love this division. I know everybody's going to talk about the Lions and justifiably so. And I think the Bears, everybody's going to fall in love with them after hard knocks. And look, they've got a ton of offensive weapons. And I don't know what Minnesota is going to be, but it sure is going to be fun to watch. When you look at Green Bay, I like their over with their win total. I think they're going to be better than people think.”
Green Bay finished the 2024 season 11-6, above the 9.5 win total (ESPN standings). (Green Bay Packers 2024: 11-6)
“Yeah, I think I'm going Wyatt Langford”
Luis Gil won the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Award; Wyatt Langford did not (Wikipedia). (2024 AL Rookie of the Year: Luis Gil)
“I like the Cardinals to win this at plus 110.”
PIT 2, STL 1 — Pittsburgh beat St. Louis 2-1 (ESPN box score).
“Under seven and a half, one of my favorite plays tonight.”
CIN 4, ATL 1 — Cincinnati beat Atlanta 4-1, combined 5 runs, under 7.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I like the over here. I made it one of my top plays sitting at eight when I bet it.”
MIN 7, PHI 2 — Minnesota beat Philadelphia 7-2, combined 9 runs, over 8 covers (ESPN box score).
“uh brewers and the cubs in an nl central showdown uh myers and asad your matchup brew crew a small road favor minus 125 cubbies plus 105 con man total eight and a half yeah the cubs uh the under here is the weather favors the under and it has all weekend in chicago um love this spot”
CHC 3, MIL 1 — Chicago Cubs beat Milwaukee 3-1, combined 4 runs, under 8.5 covers (ESPN).
“D backs and the Royals. Uh, just like the Jake, a son special here. Uh, Reagan's going for Kansas city, minus 160 Diaz for the D backs plus 135 con man total eight and a half I believe it's Gilbert Diaz too I don't even know I've never heard that name before but that being said I like the over here weather favors and under and I know I'm probably going to be going against Jake here”
KC 10, ARI 4 — Kansas City beat Arizona 10-4, combined 14 runs, over 8.5 covers (ESPN).
“astros and the athletics uh your guys spaghetti arragetti for houston and uh husky harris for for for oakland uh astros minus 150 a's plus 125 eight and a half the total by the way i do like a tyler O'Neal home run tonight for the Red Sox but all right so with this game I took the under and again we're looking at I think Eric Getty's been better than advertised”
OAK 4, HOU 0 — Oakland shut out Houston 4-0, combined 4 runs, under 8.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, I'm on the under here. I got it at seven and a half earlier, but I still like it at seven. This was my other favorite play of the day.”
LAA 3, SEA 1 — Los Angeles Angels beat Seattle 3-1, combined 4 runs, under 7.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I do like this Houston team. I'd bet them at plus money.”
Houston Astros clinched their fourth straight 2024 AL West title (ESPN). (2024 AL West champion: Houston Astros)
“i'm actually going to play the gnats and it scares the hell out of me”
WSH 8, CIN 5 — Washington Nationals beat Cincinnati Reds 8-5 (ESPN).
“i like San Diego and Cleveland over that seven and a half”
CLE 7, SD 0 — Cleveland beat San Diego 7-0, combined 7 runs, over 7.5 busts (ESPN).
“at seven and a half i'm still taking the under here”
BAL 9, TEX 1 — Baltimore beat Texas 9-1, combined 10 runs, under 7.5 busts (ESPN).
“I think the over is a good play at eight and a half.”
OAK 13, LAA 3 — Oakland beat Los Angeles Angels 13-3, combined 16 runs, over 8.5 covers (ESPN).
“I like Taylor Ward for a homer.”
Taylor Ward went 0-for-4 with no home run against Oakland (CBS Sports box score). (Taylor Ward: 0-for-4, 0 HR)
“I like the under quite a bit under seven”
HOU 3, SEA 0 — Houston beat Seattle 3-0, combined 3 runs, under 7 covers (ESPN).
“I like the Dodgers and Red Sox to go under eight and a half”
LAD 4, BOS 1 — Los Angeles Dodgers beat Boston Red Sox 4-1, combined 5 runs, under 8.5 covers (ESPN).
“bandwagon um you know i'll go next and we'll throw it to the guys and if anybody has the same pick it's fine but like i'm doing the homerism thing here i'm taking gunner i think he's very capable winning this i like his odds and if i hate this event i'll throw 25 bucks 50 bucks whatever on on my guy to win it to give me something to watch um but i do think he's very capable of it and i just feel like this whole thing is tailor made for pete alonzo it's the repetitive swing that launch angle that he has definitely he's just made for this but i don't want to bet him at three to one i want to try to win a little bit more and maybe i'm getting too cute but i'll roll with gunner sure i think it's totally fair so yeah so for for what it's worth i'll bet i guess i'll”
Teoscar Hernandez won the 2024 Home Run Derby; Gunnar Henderson was eliminated in the first round with 11 home runs. (Winner: Teoscar Hernandez; Henderson 11 HR in round one)
“Andrew Haney what do you like between the Battle of Texas yeah I'm on the under it's at eight right now in a lot of places if you get it an eight and a half great I just think it's a perfect spot for an under Andrew Haney's pitched well in his last couple starts Jordan Alvarez will play tonight I believe from what I saw but you know he's still a little nicked up we know he hits lefties and Hunter Brown since his first couple starts he's looked like the Hunter Brown you know when they were comparing him to Justin Verlander he looks like that guy again so I think the under is a great play and I'll be all over it and you know seeing some reverse line movement there too with a lot of money coming in on the over and the line going in the other direction so I love that stuff I'm all over the under in the Texas game all right I think you just sold me on that I'm going to tell”
6-3 — Astros beat Rangers 6-3 on July 12, 2024, a combined 9 runs, over the total of 8, so the under lost (ESPN box score).
“Guardians on the road tonight, and the Trop taking on Tampa. Rays minus 130, Guardians plus 110, a total of 7.5. Jeremy anything in Cleveland and Tampa yeah so I like Tampa to win this but like at first everything was pointing to the under for me and I'm sorry like Carlos Carrasco cookie is grading out great in my algorithm today going up against this raise team I just can't put my hard-earned money on an underplay in a cookie Carrasco start I just can't and I do think it ends up going under the total but I'm going to go with the raise you know I like the way Taj Bradley's been pitching big K guy even though the Guardians they strike out a little bit more than they did last year but they don't strike out a ton. I think the Rays can handle business. I actually like the way their bats have been swinging a little bit lately. So that's why when we were talking earlier, I was like, you know, Tampa Bay's a team that I think could get hot in the second half and make a run to the postseason.”
2-0 — Rays beat Guardians 2-0 on July 12, 2024 (ESPN box score); Tampa Bay moneyline cashed.
“All right, Yankees and Orioles tonight. Garrett Cole going up against Cade Povich. Total of 9. Yanks are minus 125. The O's are plus 105. Jeremy, in his last start, I don't know if Cade Povich could have gotten you or I out. He was so bad against Oakland Hoping to bounce back tonight What are your thoughts against the Yanks Yeah so look you get Garrett Cole in his first start The Orioles beat him or won the game I trying to remember if he took the L or not but I think he did And so they're not afraid of facing Garrett Cole. If you watch this last series, runs were at a premium as the Orioles got swept by the Cubs. Yankees, the same thing, you know, going down to the Rays and losing, what, two out of three. So this team, the Orioles are going to see three of the better pitchers that the Yankees have to throw. but for tonight's game specifically. The weather says it's good home run hitting weather, which is a terrible thing for the Orioles if you're looking at Judge and Soto. So we'll see how that works out. I actually like the under here. And I know that may sound weird with me talking about it being good home run weather. I think Povich is a good pitcher. He's got to figure some things out. And if you have any sort of, you know, if you have any sort of reason to believe that he is a good pitcher, I think he bounces back in this start and shows it. And I fully expect Garrett Cole to do Garrett Cole-like things. I'll say this much. The Orioles are not afraid of the Yankees. They've been beating the crap out of the ALEs. I think things are slowly starting to change, and this isn't Homerism at all. They've beaten the crap out of the Yankees the past two years, and it wouldn't surprise me to see it happen again tonight, but I think the under's the right play.”
4-1 — Yankees beat Orioles 4-1 on July 12, 2024, a combined 5 runs, under the total of 9 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, this is another one of those matchups where you look at it and you go, So, okay, we have a situation where we have a team that's good that's in the playoff hunt in the Boston Red Sox. They're facing a good pitcher in Raggins, but they're trotting out Cooper Criswell. So you've got to look at the numbers and say, do I like the better team at home? Or am I going to take this Kansas City team with the better pitcher? The reason why I like the Red Sox a little bit more is I just feel like they can outlast Raggins and win this game. Whereas I don't know what Cooper Criswell is going to do, but this Kansas City offense has disappeared at times. Uh, it's good hitting conditions. You know, like this should be something where we see the bats go off in my opinion. Uh, but this Red Sox team has been hot. So I'd rather ride with them than Kansas city. Yeah. Boston's been rolling. I, uh, I like them as well on a pick them at minus one 10 total. I I'm staying away from, but I like the Red Sox, the wind tonight.”
6-1 — Royals beat Red Sox 6-1 on July 12, 2024 (ESPN box score); Boston lost outright.
“I like your call there, but I'm going to go with the over. Weather is great. It's one of the best weather spots on the day. It's hot in St. Louis. I think it's approaching 90 degrees. but when you start looking at some of the other indexes and looking at things, I think the ball's going to carry, and I think the pitchers are going to struggle. It's Sonny Gray and this Cubs team, not that they hit better in Baltimore, but it's not like they're still hitting. I think some of the bad pitching we saw here has helped out. Sonny Gray's no slouch at all, but Kyle Hendricks on the other side, it's like he was being Houdini earlier in the year, getting out of jams, and looking good. He had a game where I bet the over, and he ends up with eight strikeouts in that game. I don't know how the hell that happened, but he's a guy typically we want to attack. And I do like the way St. Louis is swinging the bats. I think over eight is a very fair number for this matchup.”
5-1 — Cubs beat Cardinals 5-1 on July 12, 2024, a combined 6 runs, under the total of 8, so the over lost (ESPN box score).
“Marlins and Reds in Cincinnati with a total of nine tonight. Cincinnati minus 175 with Spires on the mound. Chirinos going for Miami. They're plus 145. Did you do anything in Marlins Reds? Yeah, I thought about making this a top play. I didn't, but I really like it the more I'm looking at it. L.A. De La Cruz grades out as the number one player on the slate. Jazz Chisholm grades out as the number two player on the slate, according to the algorithm I'm using. I'm playing both those guys in DFS. I think we see some home runs here at the Great American Small Park. jesus sanchez looks good de la cruz and when you're looking at the reds i mean it's hard to get past spencer steers been swinging a good bat uh jimer candelario so i i like the over i think we see both these pitchers i don't think spears and what we saw in his last start that's the guy we're ultimately going to get and god forbid like yanni truenos are you kidding me that guy's still in the league yeah i'll attack him i know the reds offense has been wanting at times but man give them to me i'm taking the over i like the over as well um i didn't do anything in this rockies”
7-4 — Reds beat Marlins 7-4 on July 12, 2024, a combined 11 runs, over the total of 9 (ESPN box score).
“In the WNBA, my two favorite plays today. Seattle's one of the best home teams, if not the best home team in the WNBA. They get Minnesota. Love this spot for them. And I can't believe I'm doing it.”
91-63 — Storm beat Lynx 91-63 on July 12, 2024 (ESPN box score); Seattle moneyline cashed.
“And I can't believe I'm doing it. I'm on Kaitlin. Well, that sounds wrong. I'm on Kaitlin Clark's team tonight. as I feel like I faded her and gone against her. They're getting two and a half. I think Indiana wins outright against Phoenix. Diana Taurasi's hurt. Love this spot for Indiana to get a home W, especially after getting embarrassed by the Mystics. All right, very good.”
95-86 — Fever beat Mercury 95-86 on July 12, 2024 (ESPN box score); Indiana won outright and covered +2.5.
“of getting swept by the Cubs. But the Phillies over is my favorite play. My next favorite play, I love the New York Liberty tonight with the Chicago Sky coming off a back-to-back. I think the Sky gets spanked tonight. Minus 10. I love that. I will be on. I don't like giving out big favorites. I do like the Red Sox tonight with Tanner Houck on the bump going up against Luis”
NYL 91, CHI 76 — New York Liberty beat Chicago Sky 91-76, a 15-point margin that covered Liberty -10 (ESPN box score).
“big favorites. I do like the Red Sox tonight with Tanner Houck on the bump going up against Luis Medina with the weather being great. I like their bats more than the A's bats, but I hate giving out minus 200 favorites because I feel like they should win regardless of what they do. And your Braves, I like the under in that game with Brandon, my favorite name to say, fat, going up against your guy, Max Freed, right? He's going tonight. So I like the under there in that game. I like that pick too. Set right now at eight. And I would tell you as that game is not until 940,”
ARI 1, ATL 0 — Arizona beat Atlanta 1-0 on a lone Eugenio Suarez homer, one combined run under the total of 8 (ESPN box score).
“This is great. Can I throw you my five home run, guys, and see what you think? I love it. And I have two maybes, too, because why wouldn't anybody want more bets in this department? I have two maybes, too. Well, go ahead. Give me your five. uh i love gunner anderson tonight um and if that's one that you wanted to go first home run i'd be he's pretty good he tends to hit a lot of home runs yeah he's really good but you know he's plus yeah but he's but the difference between him and somebody like judge where he might be plus 180 the home run gunner's plus 440 tonight like are you kidding me why did i don't know why they haven't adjusted that and i think they keep making mistakes and it's not even against the lefty i like tyler o'neill the red socks i have Corey Seager bryce harper and anthony santander clearly i like this orioles game a lot i like the orioles fats yeah so you you want me to start off with”
BOS 12, OAK 9 — Tyler O'Neill went 1-for-4 with no home run; Boston beat Oakland 12-9 (ESPN box score). (Tyler O'Neill: 0 HR)
“This is great. Can I throw you my five home run, guys, and see what you think? I love it. And I have two maybes, too, because why wouldn't anybody want more bets in this department? I have two maybes, too. Well, go ahead. Give me your five. uh i love gunner anderson tonight um and if that's one that you wanted to go first home run i'd be he's pretty good he tends to hit a lot of home runs yeah he's really good but you know he's plus yeah but he's but the difference between him and somebody like judge where he might be plus 180 the home run gunner's plus 440 tonight like are you kidding me why did i don't know why they haven't adjusted that and i think they keep making mistakes and it's not even against the lefty i like tyler o'neill the red socks i have Corey Seager bryce harper and anthony santander clearly i like this orioles game a lot i like the orioles fats yeah so you you want me to start off with”
TEX 5, LAA 4 — Corey Seager went 0-for-3 with no home run; Texas beat the Angels 5-4 (ESPN box score). (Corey Seager: 0 HR)
“This is great. Can I throw you my five home run, guys, and see what you think? I love it. And I have two maybes, too, because why wouldn't anybody want more bets in this department? I have two maybes, too. Well, go ahead. Give me your five. uh i love gunner anderson tonight um and if that's one that you wanted to go first home run i'd be he's pretty good he tends to hit a lot of home runs yeah he's really good but you know he's plus yeah but he's but the difference between him and somebody like judge where he might be plus 180 the home run gunner's plus 440 tonight like are you kidding me why did i don't know why they haven't adjusted that and i think they keep making mistakes and it's not even against the lefty i like tyler o'neill the red socks i have Corey Seager bryce harper and anthony santander clearly i like this orioles game a lot i like the orioles fats yeah so you you want me to start off with”
PHI 10, LAD 1 — Bryce Harper went 0-for-4 with no home run; Philadelphia beat Los Angeles 10-1 (ESPN box score). (Bryce Harper: 0 HR)
“This is great. Can I throw you my five home run, guys, and see what you think? I love it. And I have two maybes, too, because why wouldn't anybody want more bets in this department? I have two maybes, too. Well, go ahead. Give me your five. uh i love gunner anderson tonight um and if that's one that you wanted to go first home run i'd be he's pretty good he tends to hit a lot of home runs yeah he's really good but you know he's plus yeah but he's but the difference between him and somebody like judge where he might be plus 180 the home run gunner's plus 440 tonight like are you kidding me why did i don't know why they haven't adjusted that and i think they keep making mistakes and it's not even against the lefty i like tyler o'neill the red socks i have Corey Seager bryce harper and anthony santander clearly i like this orioles game a lot i like the orioles fats yeah so you you want me to start off with”
CHC 9, BAL 2 — Anthony Santander went 0-for-4 with no home run; the Cubs beat the Orioles 9-2 (ESPN box score). (Anthony Santander: 0 HR)
“it's gonna be really hot the dew points at 73 if you were wondering about that but I was the Dodgers Dodgers and Phillies and maybe it's because it's just not that far away from here same thing better home run hitting weather the only issue and if you if you're listening to what Jake said you can look at some of the guys have good numbers against Zach Wheeler I like the Phillies in this game but it's it's great it's great hitting weather for whatever reason Red Sox over Mets over Cardinals over Giants under those are just weather leans but my plays again favorite O's Cubs over I like”
PHI 10, LAD 1 — The Phillies beat the Dodgers 10-1, covering the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“over Giants under those are just weather leans but my plays again favorite O's Cubs over I like Toronto and San Francisco under seven and a half wind blowing in a little bit big ballpark.”
SF 4, TOR 3 — San Francisco beat Toronto 4-3, a combined 7 runs, under the 7.5 total (ESPN box score).
“And I like the Rangers. I know it's a big number minus 175, but I do think it's a really good spot to place a bet on them.”
TEX 5, LAA 4 — The Rangers beat the Angels 5-4, covering the -175 moneyline (ESPN box score).
“uh Tuesday home run bets because like the just yeah I mean it's just the numbers kind of leap off the page tonight we were talking in the commercial break and it's you know I didn't make it a top play or anything but I like the raise and I just don't know how the Yankees are favored on the road at anybody when they've been the worst team in baseball over the last 25 games and it Carlos Rodon who by the way hasn had a good start in how long so um yeah I like the race today and it was I kind of like the fact that I heard you talking about some guys that are at least higher up and hitting home runs on your chart Makes me feel good.”
TB 5, NYY 3 — The Rays beat the Yankees 5-3, covering the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“you and jake here okay i mean i'll do mine quick because i didn't realize the game started at 640 um but i have the under in the tigers game and i like gavin williams to get over four and a half strikeouts in that game he had a terrible first start i think he bounces back and detroit's going with a bullpen game so i like the under there at eight and a half what about you jake i like”
DET 1, CLE 0 — Tigers beat Guardians 1-0, one combined run, so the under 8.5 total covers.
“you and jake here okay i mean i'll do mine quick because i didn't realize the game started at 640 um but i have the under in the tigers game and i like gavin williams to get over four and a half strikeouts in that game he had a terrible first start i think he bounces back and detroit's going with a bullpen game so i like the under there at eight and a half what about you jake i like”
Gavin Williams struck out 5 in his start for Cleveland, clearing the over 4.5 strikeouts prop. (Gavin Williams: 5 strikeouts)
“a team that i would not bet uh want to get your thoughts jeremy on the wnba we have two games tonight did you do anything a couple of games where the sun and the mercury are 10 and a half point favorites you had a nice winner last night did you play anything tonight uh yeah i'm on phoenix tonight. I don't think the Sparks have looked the same since Cameron Brink went down. And this is a spot where I think, you know, Phoenix should just run roughhouse here. This is a, it's a, it's a, it's a great spot for them to come out. And again, if you, some people don't want to bet that minus 10, some people want to bet money lines and things like this is one that I think you could bet them in the first quarter, the first half. I just think this is one that they roll away with. The other game didn't interest me as much. I was looking at possibly an overplay, but I didn't like it. I thought I was trying to force that in there just to have another game to bet. All right, fair enough.”
92-78 — Phoenix beat Los Angeles 92-78, a 14-point margin that covers Mercury -10.5.
“Now they come back east and they play Tampa Bay. Mitchell Parker against Zach Eflin tonight, Jeremy, with a total of 7.5 in this game. Razor minus 160 at BetMGM. The Nats are plus 135. Your thoughts, because to me this total at 7.5 is interesting. See, I went under, and I think you're probably going to be interested in the over here. And the reason I went under, these are two light-hitting teams, and you mentioned the travel that the Nats have had. Zach Eflin grades out extremely well for me today. The concern would be Mitchell Parker. I've watched him a couple times. He's actually settled in a few times and had some pretty dominant games. Jury's still out on him. But with both these teams, the Nats steal a ton of bases. They were up there. They were leading the league in stolen bases, and I think the Red Sox are up there now. But they are really good if they get on the base pass. Conversely, when we're talking about Tampa Bay, they have recently started to hit a little bit more. Rosarina's kind of got it going, Yandy Diaz. It seemed like when they played Pittsburgh and they went through that Paul Skeens game after that, they just started hitting better. Whether or not that comes to fruition today. But yeah, I'm on the under. I made the under a play at seven and a half.”
3-1 — Tampa Bay beat Washington 3-1, a combined 4 runs that stays under 7.5.
“The total is eight and a half. You liked the O's last night. You leaned towards the over as well, so you were right with both of those plays. Anything for you tonight that you like? Yeah, I mean, I said something to the effect of I'd have no problem blind betting the Orioles this weekend. I think this is just one of those weekends where they come out and just the weather is going to be great, and they mash against this Texas team. I love the fact that Max Scherzer, it his second start It not a perfect science but I like attacking guys in their second start off an injury getting used to the general soreness that you going to have coming back and pitching scherzer a guy that gives up the long ball and i got news for you like if you go check his minor league numbers when he was making his rehab starts we don't know what he was working on but he did not look good down there came back last week looked fairly good this is a different ball club i mean you got gunner henderson at the top of the order and he's on pace to do things that we've never seen before he's leading all of major league baseball in war i think he's going to win the mvp but again it's it's tough when you look at what aaron judge is doing so a lot of it's going to depend on what happens in august and september but i like the over here the weather favors and over um and i i bet the over i would go back to the well with the orioles but it it does feel weird putting your heart on money on albert suarez watching how he's pitched and he's favored over”
2-1 — Baltimore beat Texas 2-1, a combined 3 runs that busts the over 8.5.
“Those are my two favorite plays. I like Phoenix in the WNBA. I like Montreal on the CFL. We were talking about the CFL yesterday, so did a little bit of research today, jumping all over them on the road. I think the D-backs are a good bet.”
30-20 — Montreal beat Toronto 30-20 on the road, so the Alouettes moneyline won.
“Really quick, Jeremy, before we get to Kenny, we do have one more baseball game that we have not gone over yet on today's slate. I know it was one that really interests you in the Dodgers and the Giants. Logan Webb on the mound today for San Francisco. They're a pick-em against the Dodgers, and the total is 7.5. What did you make of that Giants-Dodgers game? I went with the Giants in the game. I made it a play. Logan Webb pitching against this Dodgers team. You've seen him a bunch of times. He's actually grading out well in the algorithm that I use. So I like this spot for him. It's tough picking against the Dodgers, but let's be honest, they're not going to win every game. I think this is a really good spot to buy low on a Giants team at home. So I took them. It's tough to bet against Logan Webb. I mean, when he's at home, normally a pretty good bet.”
SF 5, LAD 3 — Giants beat Dodgers 5-3 on a Brett Wisely walk-off two-run homer in the ninth; Giants moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Jeremy Blanco on the mound for the Strohs. Quintana on the mound for the Mets. Minus 110 each way and a total of 8.5. What are we doing in Mets and Astros? One of my favorite plays tonight, I'm taking the over. We get two of the hottest teams in baseball going at each other. The Mets, since Grimace threw out the first pitch, have been unstoppable, and the Astros have just been tearing it up. But I'll say this about Ronell Blanco. I've been waiting for some opportunities to attack him because he is a fly ball pitcher, and he's had a couple of really good starts this year. But I think he's pitching above board. He's been a little bit lucky. And the same thing, you look at the other side. Quintana's um he's a weird guy because like at times he'll get so much soft contact and keep getting out and then you'll see him go six innings you're like man he only gave up one hit but he threw a lot of pitches uh and at other times he just gets tattooed and the way that Houston's swinging the bats right now I love Jordan Alvarez tonight um and I like Pete Alonzo to go yard I'm taking the over here and I might have some same game parlays with those two guys homering I like it look you mentioned Blanco I mean he's eight and two this season with a 2.34”
NYM 7, HOU 2 — Mets beat Astros 7-2, a combined 9 runs that clears the over 8.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'll take my chances with him giving up a bunch early. Um, I like the over here at nine and a half. It's the perfect spot for an over. I like a Josh Naylor home run.”
KC 10, CLE 3 — Royals beat Guardians 10-3, a combined 13 runs that clears the over 9.5 (ESPN box score).
“Well, these guys great out as two of the best pitchers on the slate. Logan Gilbert's been number one, but this isn't a great pitching slate. Gilbert doesn't walk people. I think one game this year he walked two in the same game. And I'm like, what the hell's going on? He doesn't put anybody on base. You got to earn it. And then on the flip side, when you start talking about Minnesota, Bailey over has been very unlucky this year. He started off. He started to get better. can get the strikeouts, does give up the long ball. What does Seattle do? They hit the long ball and they strike out a ton. I like the under at seven. I wish I'd got it at seven and a half because as soon as I clicked the button on it, it went down to seven. I'm like, all right, I'm going to wait. I kept waiting and it wasn't moving. So I just took the seven at even money to go under the total there. You mentioned Gilbert really doesn't allow free base runners. I mean, neither of these guys do. Gilbert's pitched 106 in the third innings already this season. He's been incredibly durable and effective for the Mariners. Only 21 walks in those 106 in the third innings. And then Bailey over on the other side, 82 innings pitched for the Twins and just 20 walks that he has issued. So both of these guys, excellent command. You're pitching in maybe the best pitcher's park in Major League Baseball, so can definitely see why you like the under and for the reasons that you mentioned too with how much the Mariners strike out.”
SEA 3, MIN 2 (10 innings) — Mariners beat Twins 3-2 in 10 innings on a walk-off, a combined 5 runs that stays under 7 (ESPN box score).
“A game that you were talking about all fair was this D-backs and athletics game where the total's nine. Arizona's minus 175. The A's are plus 145. Got about 30 seconds or so until we have to go to break, but your thoughts on Oakland and Arizona tonight? Yeah, look, that flip side of it, when you look at the A's, J.P. Sears has just been trashed this year. I mean, he's had a couple of starts. I think he had one good one against the Yankees, his former team. I love all the righties here. I mean, Cattell Marte switch hitting. I think Christian Walker goes yard. I like Arizona a lot. They're a minus 175 favorite, but I do think they handle business at home. I did take the Diamondbacks minus 175. All right, very nice.”
OAK 9, ARI 4 — The Athletics beat the Diamondbacks 9-4, so the Diamondbacks moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“Total in that game, 7.5 with Imanaga going up against Jordan Hicks and then Montgomery and Festa, a total of 9. Real quick, Jeremy, to kick off the show because we do have those games going in the next 40 minutes. Anything that interests you in either of those? Yeah, you know, there's three early games and I think what Chris Sale is going up against the White Sox but that's like a minus 300. I mean, it's huge. So do what you will with that against his former team. But I do like the other two games. I'm on the over in the Minnesota game. Sure, I'm buying into Gordon McLeod's last start. We'll have to wait and see. But I do like this Minnesota team against a young pitcher that's, you know, you're going to have an opportunity here to go after him. Because you get some guys that get called up and you're like, or I'm sorry, for Arizona against Minnesota calling up a young pitcher, you're going, all right, does he have control issues? And if you do, then I'm going to like that. And we have two pitchers on today's slate. one making his first start ever. And I think both of these guys are going to struggle a little bit today. In the Giants game, I like the under.”
Twins 13, Diamondbacks 6 — Twins beat Diamondbacks 13-6 (19 combined runs); over 9 total cashed (ESPN box score).
“In the Giants game, I like the under. It's tough with him and Ogg, isn't it? Because he can look so amazing and then so, so bad. So I don't know if he's been tipping his pitches or not, but that ballpark fits Jordan Hicks. He's going to strike a lot of guys out. He's going to give up some fly balls. I like the under at seven and a half there. Nothing for me in Giants-Cubs. If I had a lean, I'd probably continue fading Chicago, and I'd take the Giants minus 110. And every game, it feels like, in this series so far has been close. So I think the under, low-scoring game, I like that play.”
Cubs 5, Giants 3 — Cubs beat Giants 5-3 in 10 innings (8 combined runs); under 7.5 total busted (ESPN box score).
“Rangers and the Orioles underway. Rangers already threatening, Jeremy. They got runners on first and third with one out in the first inning. Did you do anything in that O's Rangers game? So the O's Rangers game was interesting because it was the only game today that was really supported by weather for an over. Everything else was pretty much neutral across the board. But it was hot and humid here today in Baltimore, and usually that's a good thing. But with Corbin Burns on the mound, it's like, hey, do you want to take your chances with that? The Orioles could score those runs by themselves. But both of these guys, even when John Gray, when he's on, he can strike out some guys. So I didn't touch the side. I did take the Orioles minus 200 and some parlays, but I like them today and I still think they bounce back. They match up well with Gray.”
Orioles 11, Rangers 2 — Baltimore beat Texas 11-2 behind Corbin Burnes and Heston Kjerstad's homer, so the Orioles -200 moneyline won.
“I did take the Orioles minus 200 and some parlays, but I like them today and I still think they bounce back. They match up well with Gray. I took Texas on the run line plus one and a half. I do think the O's can win, but I think it's going to be close. Texas obviously swept them in the postseason last year so they feel pretty good playing against the O and the O are in a little bit of a rut You know they were able to snap their five losing streak yesterday But nothing coming easy for them right now You know, on games when their offense is hit, they lose 10-8, 14-11. On nights where their pitchers do well, they lose 4-3 or 3-2, whatever it may be. So I think another close game tonight. I'll take Texas to keep it close.”
Orioles 11, Rangers 2 — Baltimore beat Texas 11-2, a 9-run margin, so the Rangers +1.5 run line lost.
“Yanks in Toronto to take on the Blue Jays. Carlos Rodon against Jose Barrios. total of eight and a half. Yanks minus 135. Blue Jays are plus 115. Blue Jays starting to play a little better. Jeremy, Yankees are struggling at the moment. Any plays for you in tonight's game? I didn't touch this game. I was looking at the over and honestly, I was looking at the Blue Jays. I think the Yankees are just reeling now. And, you know, when you get into one of these funks, you need a stopper to come out and get it. And I don't know that Carlos Radon's that guy. Hell, in the last game he was pitching, he was crying on the sideline and I'm not beating him up for crying. We're grown men. We're allowed to cry, but he was crying. So he, what did he give up like eight runs that day or something? It just, he got his, you know, his tail handed to him. So I don't know that he's the guy that's going to get that done. Vlad Guerrero was starting to pick up a little bit. His bat's heating up. They got Boba Shep back, but ultimately if I bet it, I'd probably take the over of the Jays, but I didn't touch it. I took the Blue Jays plus 105.”
Blue Jays 9, Yankees 2 — Toronto beat New York 9-2 behind George Springer's two homers and Jose Berrios's seven strong innings, so the Blue Jays +105 moneyline won.
“you were talking a little bit about this off-air. Andrew Abbott against Myles Michaelis in St. Louis tonight. We got a total of seven and a half. Cardinals minus 135 favorites at home Cincinnati plus 115 did you end up taking that under in Cincinnati St. Louis I ended up taking the over honestly um at seven it was one that looked too good to be true and I was on it earlier and I was on it when I saw it at eight and a half earlier I thought that these guys with the way that the Cardinals have been hitting and they've been hitting lefties too I talk about Alec Burleson um and the rest of that crew like Nolan Gorman there there's the opportunity there and I know the Reds at times can get into a funk with their offense but it's Michaelis he hits so many bats you know and it's an opportunity there so I couldn't pass it up I took the over it's probably a sucker's bet but it looked too good to be true I passed on that game”
Reds 11, Cardinals 4 — The Reds beat the Cardinals 11-4, a combined 15 runs, clearing the over 7 total.
“and Royals in Kansas City big four game series for both teams but especially KC trying to gain some ground in the AL Central. You got Ben Lively going up against Michael Wacca, a total of eight and a half. Juiced to the over at minus 120. Guardians, small favorites, minus 115. Kansas City, minus 105. Royals have regressed a little bit here, Jeremy, in the month of June. Guardians are playing as good a baseball as anybody. Any play for you in tonight's game? Yeah, I rolled, it's a small play for me on Wacca, Wacca, Wacca and the Royals. The Royals upset me this week. They had three of the best games for hitting, and neither team hit. They were playing the Marlins. I mean, it was almost 100 degrees out there. At one point, they had the wind blowing out. I don't know if you guys saw one of the pitchers for the Royals. His entire body was soaked from the humidity and how hot it was out there after the second inning. So maybe it's a bad bet, but I feel like the Royals are going to pull one out here, and I'll trust Waka to get it done against this Guardians team. Yeah, I'm on the same side as you.”
Royals 2, Guardians 1 — Kansas City beat Cleveland 2-1 on a sixth-inning rally capped by Vinnie Pasquantino's sac fly, so the Royals -105 moneyline won.
“We got Jack Flaherty in Detroit out in Anaheim tonight taking on the Angels. Detroit minus 155 with a total of eight and a half. Did you do anything with Detroit and Anaheim? This was my favorite play of the day, and it's going to sound weird because I'm not going to give you a great reason why I like it outside of all the monies coming in on the under. I know it's a Jack Flaherty start. If I'm going to attack Jack Flaherty, I want to do it on the road. I don't want to do it with the Angels whose bats absolutely stink. But I think the Tigers go off here. We've talked about rookie pitchers coming up. You've got a guy coming up that struggles with the strike zone, can give up a ton of walks, can get some strikeouts. I'm sure there's going to be some hard contact. I absolutely love the lefties for the Tigers. Colt Keith, you want to talk about some Riley Greene, even Matt Veerling, getting those guys and taking them over total bases. I bet Riley Greene over one and a half bases, and I bet Gunnar Henderson over one and a half bases today. I like both of those a lot. I think Detroit scores a bunch of runs tonight, and this goes over the eight and a half. All right, very good.”
Angels 5, Tigers 0 — The Angels shut out the Tigers 5-0, a combined 5 runs, missing the over 8.5 total.
“I absolutely love the lefties for the Tigers. Colt Keith, you want to talk about some Riley Greene, even Matt Veerling, getting those guys and taking them over total bases. I bet Riley Greene over one and a half bases, and I bet Gunnar Henderson over one and a half bases today. I like both of those a lot.”
Riley Greene went 2-for-3 with a double, totaling 3 bases, clearing the over 1.5 total-bases prop. (Riley Greene: 3 total bases (2-for-3, 1 double))
“I bet Riley Greene over one and a half bases, and I bet Gunnar Henderson over one and a half bases today. I like both of those a lot.”
Gunnar Henderson went 2-for-5 with two singles (2 total bases), clearing the over 1.5 total-bases prop. (Gunnar Henderson: 2 total bases (2-for-5, no extra-base hits))
“But I have the Orioles tonight. I played them in some parlays, minus 200. I like the Detroit over. If you don't feel comfortable betting the game over 8.5, I'd be comfortable betting their team total. I like the lefties. I bet Riley Greene. I think Colt Keith is a great bet. That guy's been swinging a sweet bat. I've had him in a lot of my daily fantasy lineups, and I like Gunnar Henderson over one and a half bases. In the WNBA, one of my favorite plays tonight is Seattle minus nine and a half. Go ahead and let the public keep betting on Kaitlin Clark and the Fever. They suck. I'll keep fading them in the great spots, and I think Seattle handles business. Fair enough.”
Storm 89, Fever 77 — Seattle beat Indiana 89-77 behind Jewell Loyd's 34 points, a 12-point margin that covers Storm -9.5.
“So, Jeremy, your official play, I know you didn't love anything, but you do think Boston gets the sweep tonight? Well, I love the under tonight. I am on that. I'm going to play the under at 211.5. I'm not going to bet the side again. When we talked about it, PJ, it's tough, man, because I feel like we don't have a grip of what's going on in that locker room. We don't know how these players are feeling. They're tired. They're banged up. And this is the one time that you look at it when you're down 3-0 and going, hey, you're just kind of going through the motions now to get through it, and what type of pride do they have? So they're at home. I think that's the good sign if you want to bet the Mavs. But I stayed away from the side figuring this game slows down just like any other elimination game. And I went with the under.”
DAL 122, BOS 84 — Dallas beat Boston 122-84; the combined 206 points stay under 211.5 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, so Zach Little grades out awful against this Braves lineup today, and I think the Braves could cover this total by themselves, but they haven't been hitting. So here's the oddity of it. They finally pick up a win against the Orioles yesterday. They scored six runs. I thought they should have had more runs in that game as I had the overs, the top play, and it ended up being a push or a loss, depending on where you got the number. But, you know, I look at today and this matchup in specific, I think we get runs. I mean, I've talked about that stadium and a lot of the stadiums on the East Coast quite a bit when we get some humidity. I think the ball carries, and I love this spot for Matt Olsen, Michael Harris. I think those guys are in a great spot. I like Olsen just for funsies, I guess, to hit a home run. I'm playing him in my DFS lineups, and I think this Braves team can be sneaky tonight where nobody's going to be on them because they haven't been scoring, and I think they knock around little. I think the concern with betting it over here, when Sale's on, he's on. But the thing I like about this is that the Rays have seen him quite a bit since his time in Boston. I'm not saying they're going to come out and knock him around or anything, but I think they can scratch out a few runs to help that total. But I like the over. It'll be a top play for me tonight at 8.5.”
ATL 7, TB 3 — Atlanta beat Tampa Bay 7-3; the combined 10 runs clear the over 8.5 (ESPN box score).
“I like Olsen just for funsies, I guess, to hit a home run. I'm playing him in my DFS lineups, and I think this Braves team can be sneaky tonight where nobody's going to be on them because they haven't been scoring, and I think they knock around little. I think the concern with betting it over here, when Sale's on, he's on. But the thing I like about this is that the Rays have seen him quite a bit since his time in Boston. I'm not saying they're going to come out and knock him around or anything, but I think they can scratch out a few runs to help that total. But I like the over. It'll be a top play for me tonight at 8.5.”
ATL 7, TB 3 — Matt Olson did not hit a home run in Atlanta's 7-3 win over Tampa Bay (ESPN box score). (Matt Olson: 0 HR)
“Jeremy, any play for you in this NL central battle between the Brewers and the Reds? I took the under because of the pitching matchup, just to be brutally honest. Like I'm just looking at the starters, Freddie Peralta grades out as the number one pitcher with matchup on the slate today. And I think Hunter green came in at number six on the list. And with a lot of really good pitchers on this slate, it's one of the better matchups. And look, the Reds give Hunter Green a pretty long leash. He strikes out a lot of guys. He'll go over 100 pitches, so I like that. The Reds' bats have been wanting. They're starting to get a little healthier now. I think Jonathan India started hitting, even though he's a little bit further down in the lineup. And you look at the rest of those guys on that team, Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley, these guys have a ton of pop. But ultimately, I think Freddy Peralta can just negate all that with the movement that he has on his pitches. I like the under here at 7.5. It'll be a smaller play for me tonight.”
CIN 6, MIL 5 — Cincinnati beat Milwaukee 6-5; the combined 11 runs clear the under 7.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm all over Houston. I'm on two sides tonight, and one of which we talked about earlier. You and I are on it together, and now we're on this one too. Hunter Brown's been very unlucky. I'm not telling you that he's looked like himself from last year when everybody was comparing him and his throwing style to Justin Berlander. But, you know, when you watch him pitch, he's capable of getting strikeouts. This Tigers lineup, I think, struggles a little bit against right-handed pitching. And then on top of it, you know, it's not that you have to beat Tariq Skubal. You have to outlast him. You got to make him throw pitches. You got to work counts. And you can't tell me with Altuve, the two lefties up top with Jordan and Tucker, if he's back in the lineup. But, like, they're going to work some counts. And I like the Astros to win this game. I think this will be a fun one.”
HOU 4, DET 0 — Houston shut out Detroit 4-0; the Astros moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“that game is a pass for me this next game though uh we both said it we really like the rockies tonight. They're a pick-em against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Now, actually, the Pirates become slight favorites. Minus 115. Rockies are minus 105 on BetMGM. The total is 11. You have Ryan Feltner going for the Rockies, and Carmen Mlezinski going for the Pirates. Like the Rockies a lot, also like Rowdy Tellez tonight against Ryan Feltner. Five for nine in his career against Feltner, and obviously he's a hitter at Coors Field. So, I'll go with some Rowdy Tellez props tonight, but I'm with you on the Rockies tonight to win this game. Anything else for total or just betting the Rockies? I'm just betting the Rockies. I mean, the total's at 11. I think it's a solid overplay. I think McMahon's a good play tonight, too, if you're out there looking for total bases or hits, runs, RBIs. He's had two really good games in a row, and why not again against this Pirates team? And with Budzinski going, I still think this is going to be primarily a bullpen game, and Pittsburgh has one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball. So that's why I really like this Rockies side. It's the first game in Coors. People are betting it because the Rockies are terrible and they like the Pirates. This isn't Skeens pitching tonight, so I like the Rockies a lot here. In fact, I stacked them in my DFS lineups along with the Braves.”
PIT 5, COL 2 — Pittsburgh beat Colorado 5-2; the Rockies moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So my top five, I had the Cubs under today, which it was a chef's kiss because it was 0-0 going into the seventh, and it finished 3-0. I like the under in the Orioles game. I got it at 7.5. It sits at 7 in most places. I still like it at 7. Weather greatly affected today with the wind blowing in. There's some storms afterwards. So I like this spot. I like the spot for the Yankees over. There is a ton of rain in there. It does look like it's kind of weird. They push the game up and now they had to push it back due to a delay”
PHI 5, BAL 3 — Philadelphia beat Baltimore 5-3 in 11 innings; the combined 8 runs clear the under 7.5 (ESPN box score/recap).
“pay i i'm still all over tatum here because you look if you're betting the mavs i think you're taking luca and nobody else uh if you're betting the celtics and you think they're going to win um it makes sense to look at a couple of these guys and getting tatum at plus money he didn't do much last night it wasn't like up until what the third quarter run and then they started to pull away again but it's just a matter of looking at their best player and the guy that i consider to be their finisher um i don't know if we're going to get like kp being that look there's some animosity there. We've heard like Chandler Parsons comment, which Luca kind of said, oh, that's BS. We're, you know, we're fine. I've only talked to Chandler twice. But I'm sure KP was ready to get it. He's got the mismatch though. So he's going to have an advantage all series. I just don't know if he's the guy that's going to fill it up the entire time. Now, if he gets on a heater, yeah, it's pretty interesting, but I still think Tatum's my guy. I totally agree with you. I really like Tatum now. I mean, I liked it at minus 120, minus 125. Now that it's at plus 115, though, I mean, to me, that's the play. Totally agree with you.”
Jaylen Brown, not Jayson Tatum, won 2024 NBA Finals MVP (NBA.com). (2024 Finals MVP: Jaylen Brown)
“Joe Ryan against Mitch Keller, Minnesota, minus 125 in Pittsburgh. Pirates plus 105, a total of eight. You were talking about that Pirates-Dodgers series that we just saw. There were some high-scoring games in that series. But in this game today, Jeremy, you were saying earlier you think we're getting a lower-scoring game. Yeah, my favorite play of the day is the under in this game. Like Joe Ryan against this Pittsburgh lineup, and they can be wanting at times. The Dodgers pitching staff was just giving up a lot of hard contact. Boy, did Walker Bueller look bad the other day when he was out there. Or was that yesterday? Facing the Pirates. but I love the under here. I think Joe Ryan handles that starting or that lineup for the Pirates. Not a lot of scare there. I mean, there is a little bit of pop in the lineup, but again, I don't see them stringing together innings against Joe Ryan. And on the flip side, like, not a huge Mitch Keller guy, but Minnesota's offense is wanting as well. And you look at the situation they have there at the top, they keep, like, juggling the lineup,”
0-3 — Pirates beat Twins 3-0 on June 7, 2024; combined 3 runs, under 8 covers (ESPN box score).
“But Jeremy hits a pick-em. Minus 110. Garrett Crochet on the mound for the White Sox. I mean, look, I'm a contrarian better like you. It would only be White Sox or pass for me tonight. When I see a team's a pick-em in a game and they've lost 14 in a row, I'm probably going to side with that team. I know the White Sox are awful, but Crochet has been good this season. They got to win a game at some point and maybe tonight's the night. So would either be White Sox or pass for me. Pale hose, baby. Let's go. The weather supports an over here. Garrett Crochet. The reason I like him so much is when you look at the Red Sox lineup, Duren worries you at the top of the lineup. Raphael Devers. We could sit here and talk about some of the power they have in the middle of their lineup with the likes of Tyler O'Neal, but he strikes out a ton. That's why I love Crochet here. He's a punch out pitcher. And the guys that I would be worried in the lineup are left-handed. And I think Crochet can help nullify some of that. I think the White Sox pick up a big win. It's a top play for me today. Very nice. Giants and the Rangers in Texas tonight.”
2-7 — White Sox beat Red Sox 7-2 on June 7, 2024; Chicago moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Yeah. And I'm pretty sure Jake could attest to this, to what you're talking about. Logan Webb with a sinker baller can get a ton of soft contact, but when you get fly ball hitters against a sinker ball pitcher, that exit velocity and the launch angle that they have can lift those baseballs. I'm on the Giants. I'm betting more on the starting pitcher. I don't like Mike Lorenzen, but it's a small play for me.”
5-2 — Giants beat Rangers 5-2 on June 7, 2024; San Francisco moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Seattle tonight, minus 125, KC plus 105 with a total of nine. Anything for you in Mariners-Royals tonight?”
9-10 — Royals beat Mariners 10-9 on June 7, 2024; combined 19 runs, over 9 covers (ESPN box score).
“my algorithm loves more loves Julio Rodríguez loves a lot of these Seattle bats I think the big dumpers are an interesting play tonight but I bet Julio Rodríguez the homer he was plus 350 a couple of boosts out there and things you can add to it but I think he goes yard tonight against Lynch I love the over here this is my second favorite play the pit under and then of course this play I think the Seattle bats go off they're a small favorite on the road they strike out a ton I don't know that I'm worried about Lynch getting a high strikeout rate here I'm not saying he can't strike out guys, but I think the Seattle team really gets things going.”
Julio Rodríguez went 1-for-3 with 2 walks and did not hit a home run in the June 7, 2024 game at Kansas City (ESPN box score). (Julio Rodríguez: 0 home runs)
“nothing for me there uh nothing for me in Astros Angels as well with Frambois Valdez against Griffin Canning total of eight and a half Houston minus 165 Angels plus 140 Jeremy anything for you yeah top play for me the Astros I like Jordan to go yard tonight um he's another guy I think you could bet on you're not going to get as good of odds but uh he's and then they're waiting for Kyle Tucker to see if he can play tonight he's day-to-day so I think that's why their lineup hasn't come out yet, but I'm all over the over. I think they get to Griffin Canning, and conversely, I think the Angels, it's Frambois Valdez.”
7-1 — Astros beat Angels 7-1 on June 7, 2024; combined 8 runs, over 8.5 busts (ESPN recap).
“yeah top play for me the Astros I like Jordan to go yard tonight um he's another guy I think you could bet on you're not going to get as good of odds but uh he's and then they're waiting for”
Yordan Alvarez did not hit a home run on June 7, 2024; he had a tiebreaking three-run double in the 7th inning instead (ESPN recap). (Yordan Alvarez: 0 home runs (3-run double))
“100 percent and then finally nl west matchup between the d-backs and the padres brandon fad against michael king san diego minus 125 at home with the total of seven low total in this game i didn do anything uh anything for you san diego arizona i like mike king a lot tonight i think you could look at some of his K props if you wanted to That a really low total for Fotton and King right Yeah, that is. Again, it's just one of the ones we go back to. We looked at the seven and a half with Miami, and you could look at Miami and say, well, they don't hit much, right? San Diego has plenty of pop in their lineup and plenty of names, and when you look at Arizona, the same thing can be said. I like the under there. It's another one where I know the sticker shock's there because it's seven. I'm playing the under in this game. All right.”
3-10 — Padres beat Diamondbacks 10-3 on June 7, 2024; combined 13 runs, under 7 busts (ESPN).
“Yeah, there's a team that hasn't won a game all year long. They're called the Washington Mystics, and I'm taking them plus the two and a half to three, depending on where you get it. I think they get their first W against the Indiana Fever. Fever have had a long schedule, a lot of talk about them, obviously, with what they've been through, and Kaitlin Clark, and do they hate her? What's going on? All that nonsense. But, yeah, look, the Indiana Fever aren't good either. They've won two games. They just won their first home game. So I like this spot for Washington late in the season to face a team that I don't think is very good. And I don't think either one of them are good, but I think it's a perfect spot for Washington to get their first win of the season.”
83-85 — Fever beat Mystics 85-83 on June 7, 2024 (margin 2); Washington +2.5 covers (ESPN).
“washington team and i know they're throwing patrick corbin but all he has to do is limit damage it's eight and a half and i like Jazz Chisholm Jr. for a home run just for funsies i like the over in that game as well nice like that has jazz been uh has he been has he been hitting really well or what's what's his deal he showed up as the number two hitter in my algorithm today so it's like it's it's an anomaly when you see that name up there so i'm just gonna throw some yeah i'm trusting the algorithm yeah absolutely uh i like uh two team money line partly tonight in college baseball that pays like about it's like minus 120 uh miss state on the money line so jake likes run line i do too but just like if you want to just like a fun thing tonight mississippi state and oregon state together is like minus 120 i think minus 125 uh i also like louisiana tech i think that's the team that's playing k-state i like them tonight as well i like grand canyon too i just part of me just looks at this market and just goes like are we all just going to be really dumb here and it's like grand canyon at a tiny number against a team playing at home it's a seeded team this is sometimes where i feel like we just get we run away with these like upsets that and then the price just kind of gets away from us and i don't i don't know what's going on there but i think a couple teams now you can you can pair together with some stuff that's pretty fun”
ATL 4, OAK 2 — Atlanta beat Oakland 4-2, a combined 6 runs, under the 8.5 total (ESPN box score).
“washington team and i know they're throwing patrick corbin but all he has to do is limit damage it's eight and a half and i like Jazz Chisholm Jr. for a home run just for funsies i like the over in that game as well nice like that has jazz been uh has he been has he been hitting really well or what's what's his deal he showed up as the number two hitter in my algorithm today so it's like it's it's an anomaly when you see that name up there so i'm just gonna throw some yeah i'm trusting the algorithm yeah absolutely uh i like uh two team money line partly tonight in college baseball that pays like about it's like minus 120 uh miss state on the money line so jake likes run line i do too but just like if you want to just like a fun thing tonight mississippi state and oregon state together is like minus 120 i think minus 125 uh i also like louisiana tech i think that's the team that's playing k-state i like them tonight as well i like grand canyon too i just part of me just looks at this market and just goes like are we all just going to be really dumb here and it's like grand canyon at a tiny number against a team playing at home it's a seeded team this is sometimes where i feel like we just get we run away with these like upsets that and then the price just kind of gets away from us and i don't i don't know what's going on there but i think a couple teams now you can you can pair together with some stuff that's pretty fun”
CLE 7, WSH 1 — Cleveland beat Washington 7-1, a combined 8 runs, under the 8.5 total (ESPN box score).
“washington team and i know they're throwing patrick corbin but all he has to do is limit damage it's eight and a half and i like Jazz Chisholm Jr. for a home run just for funsies i like the over in that game as well nice like that has jazz been uh has he been has he been hitting really well or what's what's his deal he showed up as the number two hitter in my algorithm today so it's like it's it's an anomaly when you see that name up there so i'm just gonna throw some yeah i'm trusting the algorithm yeah absolutely uh i like uh two team money line partly tonight in college baseball that pays like about it's like minus 120 uh miss state on the money line so jake likes run line i do too but just like if you want to just like a fun thing tonight mississippi state and oregon state together is like minus 120 i think minus 125 uh i also like louisiana tech i think that's the team that's playing k-state i like them tonight as well i like grand canyon too i just part of me just looks at this market and just goes like are we all just going to be really dumb here and it's like grand canyon at a tiny number against a team playing at home it's a seeded team this is sometimes where i feel like we just get we run away with these like upsets that and then the price just kind of gets away from us and i don't i don't know what's going on there but i think a couple teams now you can you can pair together with some stuff that's pretty fun”
Jazz Chisholm Jr. went 0-for-4 with no home runs as Miami beat Texas 8-2 (ESPN box score). (Chisholm: 0 home runs)
“the big weather spot tonight is the under in the red sox game i like that a lot we got a good pitching matchup i can't believe i'm saying that with jack flaherty going um but yeah it's a very good pitching matchup and i think look in uh at this spot with the weather the factor of what we had twins royals was the one i got wrong because all the games went over early this morning or this afternoon um but yeah so i really like the red socks under i've already told you i mean i'm against drew and some other people we've had on it i like the wolves tonight maybe it is me being scared of the situation i think we go back for a game six so i took the wolves and i'm not a big hockey better but i do like the panthers tonight it's a small number on the road bless you and the way that we've seen this series go it's going to come down to something uh spectacular but i i like the minus 125 as it sits right now so there you go what about you ken anything else yeah alex have another list ready maybe i'll go through my picks maybe we do one more i kind of want to do”
NYR 2, FLA 3 — Florida beat New York 3-2 in Game 5, covering Panthers -125 moneyline (ESPN box score).
“expect yeah i'm not going to be bullish and go back to the mavs plus the points i'll go back to what i how i thought the game was going to play in game one and you've seen it the nba changed um i'd probably say sometime after the all-star break if you notice where the totals we didn't have 240 totals 250 totals anymore they started dropping to 230 eventually 228 and then we get to the postseason and we've seen it sub 200 a couple of times right and that's that's going back to the like mid 90s late 90s if you want to get there when we saw games like that defensive minded teams so i i think the under is the play tonight in tonight's game with the way that these two teams are going to match up you know finch is going to make adjustments this is the best defensive team that we saw in the league with uh minnesota and what a lot of people don't realize is when dallas made these trades that kind of flew under the radar with adding a pj washington daniel gafford it really gave like they were gearing up to try to beat the nuggets. Now the nuggets are gone. Ironically, it ends up working out for him too against Minnesota because they might be one of the biggest teams with Nas Reed, you know, cat. And of course, Rudy Gobert. So I think Rudy Gobert gets just absolutely annihilated and pick and rolls with Kyrie and, and with Luca as well. And I don't know if you saw it in the last series, the Mavs went to a pick and roll where they were basically picking with a guard, getting the switch and then kicking the ball and getting, it to the corner for the corner threes for pj washington and derrick jones jr so yeah i think this is going to be a fun series i think the under is the right play dallas has been much more of a defensive-minded half-court team than we've seen uh especially in the postseason here recently right now that uh that total for tonight's game sitting at 207 and a half minnesota is favored by five and a half what i like in this game jeremy and i so anthony edwards props i'm looking”
109-108 — Mavericks beat Timberwolves 109-108 in Game 2 (217 combined points), well over the 207.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Today's best weather is in Boston. Best hitting weather of the day. You can see the total's now up to 9.5, I believe.”
7-2 — Brewers beat Red Sox 7-2 (9 combined runs), under the 9.5 total (ESPN box score).
“What are some of your plays that you like for tonight? Yeah, so the one thing that people know about me is I'm a weather nerd. And I guess a couple of years ago, I really started looking at the weather. So what I'm trying to do is find an advantage in a game. And if you can find a lean that tells you something. So I do my process in putting the games together, and then I match it up with the weather. And if the weather's on any one of my bets, I end up making it a top play because I feel like there's an edge there. I have an edge with the stuff I'm looking at. I feel like it comes together. Not a perfect science, but I've been very successful at it. Today's best weather is in Boston. Best hitting weather of the day. You can see the total's now up to 9.5, I believe. And I saw that the Dodgers and Reds went to 10.5. I like both of those overs. I think perfect spots for the Dodger bats to go off love the Red Sox bats and I wouldn't even be shocked if Milwaukee kind of scratched out a couple of runs against Cutter Crawford you know talking about him coming in PJ it was a guy that couldn't get lefties out he's done a really good job of getting lefties out but at some point you know the lefties are going to start to figure out some of the things that he's done and pick it up and I think this is a team that you could look at with guys like Christian Yelich and Bryce Terang a bunch of guys that can get on and when they get on they look to steal so I think we're going to see a ton of runs in that Milwaukee Boston game tonight it's my favorite play in baseball I also like the Mets a lot I love their starting pitcher tonight Christian Scott I think this guy is I know it's it's been a little bumpy for him he has great K stuff so I think he's in a great spot and you know I I'm leaning towards that Cubs over as well it's scary because of Imanaga you know when you get a good pitcher bad pitcher you like the scene you're like what if this guy's dominant do I need them to score all the runs and it's the home team I think they might scratch out a run or two against Imanaga and then against the bullpen speaking of the cards But I think the Cubs against Miklas, they do score a bunch of runs today. So I like that over as well”
9-6 — Reds beat Dodgers 9-6 (15 combined runs), over the 10.5 total (ESPN box score).
“tonight it's my favorite play in baseball I also like the Mets a lot I love their starting pitcher tonight Christian Scott I think this guy is I know it's it's been a little bumpy for him he has great K stuff so I think he's in a great spot and you know I I'm leaning towards that Cubs over as well it's scary because of Imanaga you know when you get a good pitcher bad pitcher you like the scene you're like what if this guy's dominant do I need them to score all the runs and it's the home team I think they might scratch out a run or two against Imanaga and then against the bullpen speaking of the cards But I think the Cubs against Miklas, they do score a bunch of runs today. So I like that over as well”
SF 8, NYM 7 — Giants beat Mets 8-7, so the Mets moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“So I didn't bet it, but if I did, it would be Angels or pass for me. I did. It was a lean for me, but I'm all over the Angels. It's the same thing you're talking about. What Sandoval is pitching for the Angels tonight, their lineup is a little goofy. You know, when you look at it, it's the Angels lineup. It's not quite the White Sox lineup, but there's a lot of guys that probably shouldn't be playing baseball that are on both of those teams.”
CLE 10, LAA 4 — Guardians beat Angels 10-4, so the Angels moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“I like the Angels and the Tigers.”
DET 6, TOR 2 — Tigers beat Blue Jays 6-2, so the Tigers moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“I've already told you when we were doing this earlier, I'm on the Denver, Minnesota under at 205.”
117-90 — Denver beat Minnesota 117-90 in Game 3, a combined 207 points, over the under's 205 line (ESPN box score).
“like i hand you a hundred bucks and i said i know you said you like the under in the game you can't bet the total the number is three and a half basically everywhere i give i give you i say jeremy here's a hundred dollars here's happy friday i want you to go bet this on whatever side of the game you want you have to bet it on the side of the game what would you bet i think i'm taking minnesota tonight i you know like i don't yeah it's just something just feels wrong right now with the nuggets and how they've looked in the in the previous two games like i was”
117-90 — Denver beat Minnesota 117-90 in Game 3, so the Timberwolves moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“But we've got an interesting pitching matchup with Atlanta going against the Mets, and that's Jose Quintana versus Charlie Morton. And that's another weather game with the wind blowing in. Big ballpark, wind blowing in. I know it's scary when you have a seven and a half total with Atlanta and they're facing a junk lefty.”
4-2 — Atlanta beat New York 4-2 on May 10, 2024 (Acuna Jr., Albies, and Olson all homered); combined 6 runs, under the 7.5 total (ESPN box score).
“And I'm kind of bullish on this Houston-Detroit over. I know a lot of guys have talked about Detroit's backdrop and how they like to hit there. It's hard not to like the way that Jordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are swinging the bats and they get Casey Mize. And then on the flip side, Valdez against this Detroit team. Their offense has been a little one. Brought up Riley Green yesterday. He's in a really good spot today. So I like the over there at eight were a couple spots and things I was looking at.”
5-2 — Houston beat Detroit 5-2 on May 10, 2024; combined 7 runs, below the over 8 total (ESPN box score).
“I like Florida. I love the spot here for the Panthers.”
6-2 — Florida beat Boston 6-2 in Game 3 behind four power-play goals, so the Panthers moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“I do like the Red Sox under. I understand it's scary because Patrick Corbin's pitching for the Nats. Wind's blowing in, colder temps. It is a favorable pitching weather scene there. The same thing with the Mets and the Braves. Total there, seven and a half. and it's not the greatest of pitching matchups. Charlie Morton's been solid. He's a vet, but Jose Quintana going for the Mets. I think that game goes under. I like the White Sox. I think Garrett Crochet. Weird thing is Cleveland doesn't strike out a ton. Crochet's a big strikeout pitcher, but I think he can handle that lineup because there's not a lot of power in there and deal with them. So I like the White Sox to pull off the upset, if you want to call it that, against Cleveland.”
6-3 — Garrett Crochet struck out 11 over six shutout innings as the White Sox beat the Guardians 6-3, so the White Sox moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“his work number one overall i don't crazy you know so for my for myself i don't have a lot tonight it was kind of a weird day like i do like the mavs but i think i'm being biased there i think the under is probably the right play i like the under in the celtics game i'm gonna get i'm against Jake with the Royals. It's just a money play. I'm going to take Reed Detmers at even money at home, seeing all the money coming in on the Royals. Trust me, I don't want to bet the Angels, but it is what it is. And then I kind of felt like the under in the Carolina game. But it is. I talk about vomit plays all the time when you click that button and you're placing that wager and you're like, God, am I betting on this team again? But the baseball game tonight kind of stuck. Yeah, I think I'm going to go Carolina under. I'm going to bet on the goalie coming in and stifling a little bit on both sides. And as, what is it, the goalie for the Rangers, Shusterkin? Is that what it is? Yeah, because one of my fellow workers calls him Gnipkinop because he can't pronounce his name. So that being said, yeah, it's a really nice thing. So, yeah, that's what I'm on tonight. But I guess my favorite play of that would be the under in that Celtics game. I think we see more of what we saw in the last game. It just won't be as high score, in my opinion.”
10-4 — The Royals beat the Angels 10-4, so the Angels moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“And I like Atlanta week one minus that three. I would have loved to have found a two and a half in there somewhere, but I'll take that three with them being at home.”
ATL 24, CAR 10 — Falcons beat the Panthers 24-10 in Week 1, a 14-point margin that covers Atlanta -3 (ESPN box score).
“But I like them to go over the 10.5. I think they're going to win this division. I think this is a really good team. And I think people forget all the time, too. Like, before Lamar got hurt, they had one of the best records in football. And now they've added these weapons. And the thing that I'm most bullish on is the fact that they got rid of Greg Roman and they bring in a new offensive coordinator. There were a lot of things behind the scenes that people weren't privy to. The play call is coming in late, not allowing Lamar to change plays at the line of scrimmage, whether you think he can or can't. But I do think they win more than 10 and a half games. And, you know, look, there's a lot that depends on the quarterback's health. But if they do, I think they're winning the division and they can make a run in the postseason. But we'll see how far they can get. That's where I stand over 10 and a half for Baltimore. And it makes sense. I do. I think they will be very good this year. Now the market obviously also think like very high number. So the market thinks they're also going to be good. You have to believe they're going to be even better than that. And I don't even know like a lot of things that you're alluding to. I didn't know those were things also. It's kind of an interesting, like just real quick, like what bet do you make? Right. Cause it's, we do this on the show sometimes. Okay. If they go over this win total, what happens? Like when they do that? So like if they win a minimum of 11, it's almost like you're in that weird situation. Like, should you just bet the division? Like divisions like more than two to one it's like 250 or something like that like is that you know obviously they could win 11 and the Bengals could win 12 you know or they could win 11 and Cleveland could win 12 like that obviously is what you're that's the difference in the two markets but like is that likely enough that you don't want to play the division it's just that when you get to win totals like that and division odds it always gets really interesting like what's the better bet I with Baltimore I think division might be a little better but I hear what you're saying I like them a good amount this year too Ken I'm a degenerate I'm gonna bet both of them if that's”
Baltimore finished the 2023 regular season 13-4, clearing over 10.5 wins (NFL.com final 2023 standings). (Baltimore Ravens: 13-4)
“I'll be brief with this, and I'm not being a homer with it because I never am when I'm talking about the Ravens. But I like them to go over the 10.5. I think they're going to win this division. I think this is a really good team. And I think people forget all the time, too. Like, before Lamar got hurt, they had one of the best records in football. And now they've added these weapons. And the thing that I'm most bullish on is the fact that they got rid of Greg Roman and they bring in a new offensive coordinator. There were a lot of things behind the scenes that people weren't privy to. The play call is coming in late, not allowing Lamar to change plays at the line of scrimmage, whether you think he can or can't. But I do think they win more than 10 and a half games. And, you know, look, there's a lot that depends on the quarterback's health. But if they do, I think they're winning the division and they can make a run in the postseason. But we'll see how far they can get. That's where I stand over 10 and a half for Baltimore. And it makes sense. I do. I think they will be very good this year. Now the market obviously also think like very high number. So the market thinks they're also going to be good. You have to believe they're going to be even better than that. And I don't even know like a lot of things that you're alluding to. I didn't know those were things also. It's kind of an interesting, like just real quick, like what bet do you make? Right. Cause it's, we do this on the show sometimes. Okay. If they go over this win total, what happens? Like when they do that? So like if they win a minimum of 11, it's almost like you're in that weird situation. Like, should you just bet the division? Like divisions like more than two to one it's like 250 or something like that like is that you know obviously they could win 11 and the Bengals could win 12 you know or they could win 11 and Cleveland could win 12 like that obviously is what you're that's the difference in the two markets but like is that likely enough that you don't want to play the division it's just that when you get to win totals like that and division odds it always gets really interesting like what's the better bet I with Baltimore I think division might be a little better but I hear what you're saying I like them a good amount this year too Ken I'm a degenerate I'm gonna bet both of them if that's”
Baltimore finished 13-4 and won the 2023 AFC North division (NFL.com final 2023 standings). (AFC North champion: Baltimore Ravens (13-4))
“Because I've already stated that I think the Ravens win the division and the Falcons, but which one am I going to pick? I'm going to pick the one that to me makes more sense. And I'm not buying into New Orleans. They may end up winning this division and be the best of this group, but I'm on the Falcons.”
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the 2023 NFC South at 9-8; Atlanta finished 7-10 and did not win the division (ESPN final standings). (NFC South champion: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-8; Atlanta Falcons 7-10)
“So I'll take the Browns 30 to one.”
25-22 — The Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime to win Super Bowl LVIII; Cleveland did not reach the game (ESPN box score).