Justin Ray

“play. My favorite play on the, on the board though, a guy who came out of nowhere at the open championship to play really well. He had missed something like eight out of 10 cuts, 12 out of 16. I know, you know, the guy I'm going with like terrific Dylan Fratelli one. I think this is interesting a lot gets made of the newfound distance he's found in his game he's added I don't know eight to ten maybe even more yards on his driving distance this season but his two best performances of the whole year have been at Royal St. George's and Austin Country Club yeah two places that don't reward more distance at all so and he remember he led or whatever he was in the top five or whatever in November at the Masters because I had a top 20 after the first round bet on him and that hit like you know with flying clothes I was like great I need a bigger pair of balls to just bet you know the crazy stuff among the leaders in birdies are better the three of open the last two years I mean he's he's got some good numbers here previous appearances I really like that value for him especially how well he played last week”

Cameron Champ won the 2021 3M Open, so Dylan Frittelli did not win (ESPN).

“And this is really further down the board, a guy that Adam Scott is 110 to 1. And I know I talked about earlier how consistent he's been over the years on Lynx courses, seven top 25s of the Open Championships since 2011. The average is about 1.7 strokes gained per round on Lynx courses over the last decade, a really high number. I think that's a crazy number. I've got him to top 20. He has top 20s in two of his last three starts. It fit the narrative of the veteran player succeeding and breaking through with a big win in 2021. I could see him contending.”

The PGA TOUR leaderboard lists Adam Scott T46 at the Open Championship, outside the top 20.

“there uh for ryan palmer um i mean you put it on a tee for me a guy who is my favorite outright play of the week i he's going to be my pick to win uh xander shoffley is right there with 10 000 that's rounded out our team talked about how good he is um on links golf courses throughout his young career top 10 finishes and more than half of his career major championship starts which is ridiculous my favorite numbers though about him on links courses is that he just basically does”

The PGA TOUR leaderboard names Collin Morikawa the Open Championship winner, not Xander Schauffele.

“Sung Kang I okay fine I you know it just it could be one of those by uh my favorite outright play and I don't I don't mind Matt Fitzpatrick who you mentioned I don't dislike that at all my favorite outright play from the top tier is Scotty Scheffler uh mentioned him earlier as Scott Alexander Scheffler he has matured into Scotty he's a very good player if we're going to get a first-time winner uh the odds would show that it would be either well uh Fitzpatrick hasn't done it either There would be Fitz or himself or Will Zalatoris, a bunch of pretty good options there near the top of the board. But I do think Scotty back in his home state. And of course he knows so well because he's been playing events there since he was nine years old. I kid about that. I'm not picking him because he won an event there for nine holes back when he was nine. But the fact that at least he's seen the place before, which is more than you can say about most players. I do think that helps just familiarity and comfortability when you get to a course this week.”

PGA TOUR reports that K. H. Lee won the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson, not Scottie Scheffler.

“The long shot I like, I see him at 100 to 1. There are 10 players on the PGA Tour this season who average half a stroke gain per round off the tee and average positive strokes gain per round putting. Nine of those players are pretty much household names for golf fans. The 10th guy on that list is Cameron Davis. He's made three of his last four cuts, top 10 on the PGA tour and strokes gained off the tee. I'm going to stick with this formula where off the tee and putting are where players are going to gain the most strokes. Strokes gained approach, not as significant at quail hollow as, There's a lot of other golf courses. Cameron Davis is my favorite long shot around there at a hundred to one. You could talk me into maybe Ryan Moore played well early in the week. He has some decent history on this golf course. He's at one 25, but that's the one that screams at me is Cameron Davis.”

PGA TOUR's Wells Fargo leaderboard records Rory McIlroy as winner, not Cameron Davis.

“Patrick Reed's one of my favorite picks this week. I'm going to have money on him to top five. Nearly won that PGA Championship here in 2017.”

PGA TOUR's Wells Fargo leaderboard lists Patrick Reed T6, outside the top five.

“And then my favorite outright play is Sung Jae Im. Sung Jae Im, first of all, plays really well in the Florida events. You have taught us this before a few weeks ago during the real Florida swing, talked all about Sung Jae Im, tends to putt better on Bermuda Greens. He also tends to play well, and it's still the early part of his career, but at places he's played well already, he tends to come back and play well there again. He was T4 in his only previous start at Innisbrook, so I think that this could be a good place for Sung Jae to break through for a second victory.”

PGA TOUR's Valspar leaderboard records Sam Burns as winner and Sungjae Im T29, so Im did not win.

“mgm here on the podcast and i'll go through it real quickly dustin johnson opens up at 11 to 1 bryson and john rom and rory mcclroyal at 14 to 1 these numbers are very fluid i've seen a lot of movement already here early in the week. Justin Thomas, Xander Shoffley at 20, Colin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson at 22, Tony Finau, Victor Hovland at 25, and Jordan Spieth at 28 to 1. So I'll start it off, Justin, by asking you, is there one main stat, main fact, main something that you look at this week? Because we started off the podcast tonight saying, And hey, this is a really, really hard one to prognosticate. How do you figure it out? Where do you start the week? So for TPC Sawgrass, your short answer is absolutely not. There is no one statistic that can give you a crystal ball into what's going to happen. Since 2000, there have been seven players ranked 40th or lower in the world ranking. who win here and seven players in the top 10 who have won here. Cool. I was doing some research for the work I do for sky sports and strokes gain T to green leaders per round at the players since 2013 is an amazing eclectic list. So these are the guys best T to green at the same golf course since 2013 among guys, at least 12 rounds Rory's first boo weekly is second. Tommy fleet with third. Okay. Adam Scott is fourth and that's followed by Jerry Kelly. so throw throw you're throwing darts at a dartboard here with a blindfold on man like it is so this course demands so many different things so many different types of shots it doesn't particularly favor one kind of player which is why within the span of a couple years Sergio Garcia and Tim Clark were your winners I mean it's just it's so you know it's really difficult to pin down any specific traits that are really significant here the average ranking of winners in terms of strokes gained the last 10 years at the players championship basically the average number is worse than the tour average across the board meaning that you've just got a big kind of hodgepodge of of performances that have ended up with the winning score here so it's really difficult to do i'm sorry i know this is supposed to be a podcast that gives people hope and reasons to make picks with confidence it's just not gonna happen here man a couple years ago Siwoo Kim was like last in every statistic on the PGA tour for the season going into the players. And he won. I mean, it is so difficult to predict this golf tournament. I think it's the toughest one in the world to nail down. I do too. So all of that said, you're first of all, this is what makes a tournament and a course great is the fact that, Hey, you can be a big bomber or a short knocker. You can be an old guy or a young guy. You can be an absolute legend of the game or a one hit wonder. Those guys have all won here over the last 15 to 20 years. And so it is a hodgepodge of winners. The one constant that I found that I was doing a little research of my own. You're not the only guy that does research around here. I was looking into some numbers and in the past decade, which of course past decade only includes nine additions of this event, not 10, because I felt like going back to 2011 because that's where my numbers worked. You know how that stuff happens. And so of the past nine winners they had all finished 22nd or better in their most recent start going into that addition of the players And so I think very much like we often say at Augusta but you better have your game when you get to TPC Sawgrass because if you're trying to find it on that big old range there, that's probably not a good formula for having success that week. One other anecdote about how unpredictable this place is in back-to-back days in 2016, peak Jason Day shot 63 and the next day Colt knows shot 63. Those are two very, very different skill sets. There will be no Colt, no slander on this podcast. Nor should there be. What I'm saying is that peak Jason Day bombed the hell out of the ball and Colt did not hit it very far. And yet those two men shot 63 in consecutive days on the same golf course. I mean, that just tells you how tough it is. No Colt, no slander, absolutely not. I would not do that. I only slander Colt when I text him, which is – and there's plenty of slander going on when we do that. Great dude. But let's all right. So let's start with the top of this field. And I I won't be completely fading everybody, but quite honestly, Jay, right. The top of it, Dustin Johnson coming off a very iffy performance with the final round. Seventy eight, I believe, at the concession a few weeks ago, finished fifty fourth. Bryson DeChambeau just one. But this is a very different golf course that shouldn't suit him. John Rama. I'm very kind of wishy washy. I could run win. Yes, the last time he played here, he became very frustrated down the stretch. I can see this place frustrating him once again. Rory sounded not just dejected, but like despondent after his final round at API. And so I get down to Justin Thomas, and that's the first guy on the board that I actually like. Okay, that's actually the first name on my list I wrote is interesting. Since 2015, when JT made his debut here, he has more birdies than any player in this golf tournament. The problem is he also has the second most bogeys of any player. So definitely has the potential to go low, just needs to avoid some of those mistakes. I was looking into it, and when he's had positive strokes gained off the tee at the Players' Championship, his scoring average is around like 69.5, and he's over par when he has negative strokes gained off the tee. So if he's feeling good with his driver, and that doesn't always correlate with JT, he's normally, you know, he's looked at statistically as one of the best approach players in the world. So I think that that's one to keep an eye on. Another guy towards the top of the board that I thought was really interesting one here a few years ago I talked about a minute ago positive strokes gained in every category this season so far Webb Simpson does not have a score worse than 73 in 36 rounds this season on the pga tour i don know if he going to break through and get another players championship win that's a really small group of guys who've done that and won multiple times at tpc sawgrass but he seems as safe as anybody in that collection of players in terms of i don't think he's going to go out and put out a stinker because he basically doesn't have a bad round a really bad round um this season and even going back to last year um my favorite guy at the top of the board though this hurts because i i wrote it last week and it worked but he did everything well last week at bay hill he only had one bogey in the final round sunday at bay hill first and strokes getting off the tee ninth and approach but more important to me 10th and scrambling 21st and strokes game putting at bay hill he's won back to back events before on the pga tour bryson dechambeau is my favorite pick towards the top of the board. I think if you just called everybody player A, player B, player C, you just took the names off and looked at all the different facts by each guy, that's who I would pick. In eight career rounds at TPC Sawgrass, he's never shot worse than 73. And this is before Bryson gained the extra gear in terms of his distance. So if I'm just looking at all those names, for a guy at the top of the board to pick to win, I'm picking Bryson to win for a second week in a row okay i i look i was not on him last week and i feel like all the signs were pointing toward him”

The PGA TOUR's 2021 Players Championship leaderboard records Justin Thomas as winner, not Bryson DeChambeau.

“a top 10 finish I got him at plus 1600 You know using that logic I think that if i gonna ride with the numbers if that my calling card let let go let find some value there with will gordon”

The PGA TOUR's 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational results do not place Will Gordon in the top 10.

“My favorite outright play, and this is going to be – I'm going straight near the top of the world rankings. I'm going with Jon Rahm, a guy who I think figured something out Sunday at Riviera.”

The PGA TOUR's 2021 Workday Championship results record Collin Morikawa as winner, not Jon Rahm.

“I'm going to give you convincingly, give me Will Gordon.”

The PGA TOUR's 2021 Puerto Rico Open results record Branden Grace, not Will Gordon, as champion.

“I'm going down a little bit I'm going to take Patrick Cantlay if the golf tournament last week was only held on Pebble Beach, he probably would have won.”

The PGA TOUR's 2021 Genesis Invitational results record Max Homa as champion, not Patrick Cantlay.

“that's my favorite pick to win is Kevin Streelman. I don't know if it's going to happen. He's not a guy who's got a bunch of W's in his closet over the course of his career, but at 45 to 1 with that kind of course history, I love him this week.”

The PGA TOUR's 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am results record Daniel Berger as champion, not Kevin Streelman.

“He finished tied for 11th here last year. He's top 10 on tour in birdie average. That's something you do not expect with a guy who doesn't hit the ball that far. Maybe that a product of some of the shorter courses earlier in the season Playing out here of course like Pebble Beach and some of the other shorter courses in the fall Um but he a guy who I mean he just he could he going to go 62 75 I mean you have no idea what to expect with the guy He got a ton of low rounds here in the last 18 months on tour, nearly one in the fall. I think it was Sanderson farms when Sergio won. Um, you know, he's put together a lot of low rounds. I'll, I'll put some money on him. First round leader and top 20. Okay. I like that. My, my first round leader guy”

The PGA TOUR's 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am results do not list Peter Malnati as the first-round leader.