Guest · 13-24 on settled picks
| League | futures | prop | moneyline | total | spread | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 0-3 | 5-3+16% | 2-1 | 2-3-24% | — | 9-10-11% |
| Other | 1-8-81% | 0-2 | 2-4-25% | — | 1-0 | 4-14-55% |
“[2:21] Yeah, well, first, I mean, if you want to go props, I have not given this one out, [2:25] but I do like Yariel Rodriguez for six-plus strikeouts against the Cincinnati Reds.”
CIN 11, TOR 7 — Yariel Rodriguez struck out 6 in 4.1 IP for Toronto against Cincinnati, meeting the six-plus strikeout threshold (ESPN box score). (Yariel Rodriguez 6 K)
“[2:29] I did have to write up some no runs in the first inning bets today, [2:32] and I did take this Reds-Blue Jays game because the Reds are top three”
CIN 11, TOR 7 — Toronto scored 3 runs in the bottom of the first inning against Cincinnati, busting the no-run-first-inning bet (ESPN box score).
“[13:58] Right there, Medvedev at 10-1, I think, is my favorite bet to win the men's side of the U.S. Open.”
Jannik Sinner won the 2024 US Open men's singles title, defeating Taylor Fritz in the final; Daniil Medvedev did not win (ESPN).
“And yeah, I mean, if you want to talk about a future that I've taken that's still alive, I did like Jess Cagula to win Wimbledon at plus 2,000. She obviously lost yesterday. And then I had a little bite of Jack Draper to win his quarter. He lost to Cam Norrie, but one that's still alive. And there's a match in progress that'll finish up tomorrow. But Hugo Ember to win his quarter, I thought was a pretty good sprinkle there. I think it was plus 1800. And he should beat Brandon Akashima. They're going to resume their match in a fourth set tie break to get things started. And then he would face Carlos Alcaraz in the fourth round. And while, yes, that's kind of scary, you know, you saw Alcaraz today against Tiafoe. And you saw him at the last couple of matches of the French Open. He won the French Open, right? So it's weird to say, but he didn't really look himself. I don't think he's playing his best tennis right now. Not his best is still good to beat most players. But Hugo Ember is the guy that has an unbelievable record against top 10 players in his career. Shouldn't be fearful. Has played well on grass before. And if he can find a way to win that match, and it's obviously going to be incredibly difficult, that could definitely open things up for him to make the semis here. So, you know, just a little sprinkle I took that's still alive.”
6-3, 6-4, 1-6, 7-5 — Carlos Alcaraz beat Ugo Humbert 6-3, 6-4, 1-6, 7-5 in the Wimbledon fourth round on July 7, 2024, so Humbert did not win his quarter (ESPN).
“Yeah that actually a really great way to set up one of my picks for tomorrow because there is a guy that I was not looking to back going into this tournament His name is Cameron Norrie He fallen outside the top 40 in the world A former top 10 player really had put together a great season a couple of years ago And a semifinalist at Wimbledon. He lost to Novak Djokovic in four sets a couple of years ago. And ever since, you know, it's just been kind of a struggle. Last year was tough for him. This year's been even tougher. And he came into grass season with some pretty bad form. He dropped down at a challenger level to try to get some wins. He lost to a fellow named Jack Pennington-Jones, who has some talent, but he's outside the top 400. So it really wasn't looking very good for him. And I did fade him in the first round, as I noted earlier. I did win that bet on Diaz Acosta to cover the game spread. And then he went out and beat Jack Draper in three quick sets. Really looked impressive in that match. Looking like he's starting to find that confidence again. And he's a guy that, on grass, has been a good player. He hits his backhand really flat. That helps a lot on this surface. and he's going to face Alexander Zverev, a guy that I was looking to fade a little bit going into this tournament. Never made it out of the fourth round of Wimbledon. He's had grass court wins. You know, he's I think 41 and 20 across all levels on grass, all competitions, including exhibitions and what have you. But, you know, this is a guy that is not really suited to play the surface. He does have a big serve, but he doesn't really like it at 6'6 when he gets low balls to hit. And that's just all you get on grass. So that's why he's had the struggles here at Wimbledon. And the reason he's had some wins on grass is because he just always plays his warm-up tournament in Halle at home in Germany, a field that traditionally has not been very stacked. So I think that the record might lie a little bit here. And I do feel like this is a match where Nori at least takes a set. These guys met at the Australian Open back in January, back when Nori was actually playing well. They ended up going five sets. Nori took the fourth, forced the fifth, and they went to a tie break. Nori really had all the chances to win that match and didn't. So I think he gets a little bit of revenge here, at least in the form of a set at minus 140, but a guy that I was really not looking at at all coming in. And on grass, you know, it's a surface where they only play a couple of weeks going into Wimbledon. There's only a few tournaments you can play on grass, a few weeks even that you can play on grass. So it's always tough to gauge form going in. But some guys don't need any wins going in to just show up and produce. Novak Djokovic does that every year. But some guys, you know, it might take a few matches. And for Nori, I think that's the case.”
6-4, 6-4, 7-6(17-15) — Alexander Zverev beat Cameron Norrie in straight sets 6-4, 6-4, 7-6(17-15) in the Wimbledon third round on July 6, 2024, so Norrie failed to win a set (ESPN).
“You know, that's an interesting way to pronounce Reynaldo Lopez. I think you might want to look at the guide on that one. To me, sale, it's less surprising that sales been good. I know he's older and he's had some tough seasons, but Reynaldo Lopez coming out of nowhere to be an unbelievable pitcher this year has been a godsend for Atlanta. Yeah, look, I think you're right. I like the under as well. Nola has pitched generally pretty well against the Braves in his career, good career numbers against all these hitters. Freed has struggled against the Phillies in the past, but you mentioned two big names out of the lineup. I actually think that the no runs in the first inning, although I don't really give it out a lot, is actually a pretty good bet here just because you've got a lefty and Brandon Marsh up towards the top of the lineup in the cleanup spot. You've got Bryson Stott as well, a left-handed hitter that's going to be top two in the lineup. And Freed owns good career numbers against all these guys except for Trey Turner. But when you look at Freed and what he does, he does not. The way to beat him is just a barrage of base hits, right? A barrage of base runners because of the ground ball arm. I don't think that's going to necessarily be the case with a lot of these guys struggling in their careers against Freed and Freed pitching to a lot of ground balls. On the flip side, Nola against the top of this order. Ozuna's been cool. Hellenic's been cool. Ozzie Albies has hit well, but he doesn't have the best numbers in his career against Nola. So I think that's a good way to go. I still do think the under is the play. I would agree with you. Maybe the Phillies as a lean on the money line. But if you want to play the under and you're a little scared off the seven and a half runs, it's minus 140 to back the no runs in the first inning. I kind of like that bet. I think that might be the best way to approach the game.”
8-6 — The Phillies beat the Braves 8-6 on July 5, 2024, combining for 14 total runs, well over the 7.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, look, I think you're right. I like the under as well. Nola has pitched generally pretty well against the Braves in his career, good career numbers against all these hitters. Freed has struggled against the Phillies in the past, but you mentioned two big names out of the lineup. I actually think that the no runs in the first inning, although I don't really give it out a lot, is actually a pretty good bet here just because you've got a lefty and Brandon Marsh up towards the top of the lineup in the cleanup spot. You've got Bryson Stott as well, a left-handed hitter that's going to be top two in the lineup. And Freed owns good career numbers against all these guys except for Trey Turner. But when you look at Freed and what he does, he does not. The way to beat him is just a barrage of base hits, right? A barrage of base runners because of the ground ball arm. I don't think that's going to necessarily be the case with a lot of these guys struggling in their careers against Freed and Freed pitching to a lot of ground balls. On the flip side, Nola against the top of this order. Ozuna's been cool. Hellenic's been cool. Ozzie Albies has hit well, but he doesn't have the best numbers in his career against Nola. So I think that's a good way to go. I still do think the under is the play. I would agree with you. Maybe the Phillies as a lean on the money line. But if you want to play the under and you're a little scared off the seven and a half runs, it's minus 140 to back the no runs in the first inning. I kind of like that bet. I think that might be the best way to approach the game.”
Neither the Phillies nor the Braves scored in the first inning of Philadelphia's 8-6 win on July 5, 2024, so the no-run-in-first-inning prop won (ESPN box score). (First inning: 0-0)
“Kenny, real quick in about 20 seconds, which favorite, if you had to pick one, would you rather take? Sinner on the men's side or Sabalenka on the women's side? Absolutely, Sinner. I mean, he's only lost twice this year, PJ. And his forehand is so big, his serve is so big. He's amazing on fast courts. Only lost three times this year, twice to Alcaraz, once to Tsitsipas on a questionable call. All three were on slow courts. So without a doubt, Sinner, Sabalenka coming in with the injury. Not quite sure with her. And I just think Jeff Pagula is my pick, honestly, on the women's side.”
Jessica Pegula was eliminated in the second round of 2024 Wimbledon, losing to Wang Xinyu 6-4, 6-7(7), 6-1, so she did not win the title (ESPN). (Pegula lost to Wang Xinyu in the second round)
“Yeah, well, look, I'm always happy to fill the Ken quota on this show whenever you need a Ken quota filled, and I hope Ken's enjoying some time off. But, no, I think this is really a tough spot for pitchers. You mentioned it, but not for Brian Bayo. He's had a much better ERA at home this year and over his career at under four runs. He's been a much better pitcher in Boston. And against the Yankees in five starts, he has a sub-2 ERA, which I'm sure is going to get discussed a lot on pregame shows during the game. I don't know what it is. He seems to bring his best stuff here against New York. And he's a guy I've always believed in, like dating back three years ago when he made his rise up the AA ranks, just put up ridiculous numbers. He is a pitcher that I still think there's a lot of value in. He rolls up a lot of ground balls. His expected numbers are fine. And a lot of times people just talk about luck. when we talk about expected ERA and expected batting average. Oh, well, unlucky, lucky. Sometimes there's a very tangible reason for all that, and the reason is that the Red Sox have an abhorrent defense, one of the worst in baseball. But in June, they ranked seventh in outs above average. They've actually been a little bit better. The infield's still not amazing, but they've picked it up a little bit, and Baio has been particularly victimized. I've watched a lot of Red Sox games, too many to admit, by his defense. So I think in this spot here, he can have some success against the Yankees, especially keeping the ball on the ground, which the Yankees do hit ground balls, hit pitchers well. And Bayo hasn't had a great stretch of what probably seven starts now. But I still feel like this is the best way to attack the Yankees, keeping the ball out of the air in a hitter-friendly park. And on the other side, I don't have to talk much about Luis Seale. You mentioned everyone knows how great this guy is. His only Achilles heel has been walks. and while he's actually done a little bit better of a job in that area over the last few starts, he's also going to face a Red Sox team that does not walk, and they strike out at an alarmingly high rate. So I think this is a great matchup for him. Boston's been slumping anyway. Yoshida coming back into the lineup is only going to hurt this team. And then on the flip side with the Yankees, I do feel like Bayo just has some magic against this team, keeping the ball on the ground and maybe getting a little bit better defense. I think nine and a half runs is very unfair to both of these pitchers, and I like the under here.”
NYY 8, BOS 1 — The Yankees beat the Red Sox 8-1; the combined 9 runs stay under 9.5 (ESPN box score).
“So, Kenny, let me go to another game that has a pretty good pitching matchup, and I'm pretty sure the Mariners just struck out twice while I was talking about them. Andrew Haney against Luis Castillo. Give me your thoughts on this, because this Seattle team, I mean, there is a ton of pop there, but God, do they strike out a ton. Yeah, I mean, obviously, I hate this team's guts, and you mentioned why, because they just sell out for power, and when you play at T-Mobile Park, which is where fly balls go to die, it really doesn't make a lot of sense to hit that way. And I realized that that's probably going to reward you more in the aggregate. But in home games, they've hit worse because they're a fly ball heavy team. And Andrew Heaney is a fly ball heavy pitcher. So I think you should have fun pitching in T-Mobile Park. And one of the things I'm looking at with him is we know, obviously, pre and post pandemic, right around 2018 to 2022, we had some eye popping strikeout numbers. Now, those dissipated last year. They're not really great this year, right about at the league average. But he's increased his whiff rate on his slider by almost nine percentage points. And his whiff rate now is almost up in the top 40% of all pitchers. His chase rate is very, very good. So when you're talking about a team that strikes out a lot, very undisciplined Mariners team, and a team that's just going to put the ball in the air and record outs on fly balls, I think Heaney actually has a pretty good opportunity here to pitch well against Seattle. And this is a spot where I like his strikeout totals. but also just I think there's a little bit hidden behind the mediocre strikeout numbers that he actually still manages to get some swings and misses and he should be in a good spot here against the Mariners and five of the last eight starters against the Mariners have struck out seven or more batters so I think he's gonna have a good outing and the Texas Rangers they're hard sell guys I understand that they're they're one of the worst offenses in baseball over the last 30 days over the last week whatever split you want to look at but Luis Castillo is a pitcher that I I think is having a lot of issues this year. He's lost a mile an hour on his fastball. All the Mariners fans who flood my mentions and who I talk to every day. I don't know why I'm friends with any Mariners fans. I don't think we start on that, but they always talk about, Oh, you know, it's fine. It's more of a, you know, he's, he's missing his spots. And I don't care what the reason is. The fact of the matter is we've now seen enough of a sample to know his fastball velocity is down. It's getting fewer swings and misses on the fastball. The Mariners, the Texas Rangers do struggle against fastballs, but I think that's really the main culprit of their issue. What they do do well, even though they haven't had any sort of power to speak of in offensive success over the last month, they're still not striking out. They're under 18% in the strikeout department. So that's a good matchup here for them with a guy that relies on his strikeouts in Luis Castillo. Two years running now is expected sluggings over 400, and his expected batting average has come up above the league average now, over 250. So he's having issues when the ball comes back in play. He's been able to save himself. He was able to save himself last year anyway in the strikeout department. Now his strikeouts are down. Swings and misses on his fastball are down. More expected hits on the fastball. I just think that's a terrible scenario. When you're talking about a team in the Rangers, they're just going to put the ball in play. They might not have the home run power right now, but that doesn't matter in Seattle, as we just talked about, where fly balls are dying in T-Mobile Park. So this is, I think, a rare spot to believe in the Rangers' offense and a rare spot to believe in the Heen Dog, who I've really drawn the ire of for many years, but the Seattle Mariners strike out a lot and they 23rd in WRC plus the Southpaws this year to boot So this is I think a really good time to continue to back the Rangers as underdogs and continue to buy low on them as hopefully they turn their season around here soon So we get some parity in the AL West And the last thing I want to see is the frigging Mariners winning the division.”
SEA 3, TEX 2 — Seattle beat Texas 3-2; the Rangers moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“It's a pick-em on BetMGM, minus 110. each way. You got Matt Waldron going up against Sean Minaya. What's your play in tonight's game? Yeah, this is a pretty interesting one because, you know, it's always hard to really rate how teams are going to hit against knuckleballers. And Matt Waldron now over the last like three starts has just turned himself into primarily a knuckleballer. But I do feel like this Mets team is getting disrespected by this number. Seven and a half runs is incredibly low. I understand it's sort of a pitcher's park here in New York City, but this is a team that's third in WRC plus over the last two weeks of play. They have hit for a ton of power. They're not striking out a lot. They're very disciplined. And the same thing can be said about the Padres. We've been better in those areas, better in the power department, both teams over 190 in the ISO. And they are number one in WRC plus over the last couple of weeks. So they're red hot at the plate. They're going to face Sean Minaya, a former Padre in a revenge spot. And you look at the career splits, I think at three, six, eight or three, eight, six ERA. I'm not quite sure which one it is from memory, but a good number regardless against the Padres. But this is a guy who I just think you look at every single season he's pitched, especially the last two. I think you can make a very good case that this guy's never, ever been good. And his strikeouts are, he's given up trying to strike out batters. He's going to pitch to a lot of contact here to a team that's doing a lot of damage. He gives up a lot of expected damage on his arsenal. And I just think the Padres and the Mets are way too hot at the moment to be hanging a total like this with a problematic starter in Sean Minai was had a bad year, not pitching to contact very well. And then Matt Waldron, you know, he does give up some power and he doesn't really mask that well enough, I don't think, in the strikeout department. And I just think the Mets are hitting the ball pretty hard right now. So they're a team that I believe in here to hit the ball. And again, seven and a half runs, it really does not take much. It just takes one big inning against one of these starters to get you on your way. And there's been noted problems with the Mets bullpen. Jeremiah Estrada in the Padres' bullpen is dealing with some sort of illness. So who knows what's going to happen in the late innings. I just think we're going to see a slugfest. I actually feel like this game could fly over the total. I'm expecting a lot of runs here, and I can't wait to watch this back when it's a 3-2 final.”
NYM 2, SD 1 — The Mets beat the Padres 2-1; the combined 3 runs stay well under the 7.5 over (ESPN box score).
“Twins and A's, that's an interesting one for me because the A's hit a ton of home runs, whether people realize that or not. But you never know what you're going to get with them, especially with that bullpen. Even now the back end of the bullpen, which seemed to be pretty good. This Twins team, sometimes they say we're not going to hit and you can't make us. But Royce Lewis has just been so damn impressive. They look good in the past couple games. What are your thoughts on Twins A's? Yeah, they got Alex Kiril off out of town. You mentioned my son, Royce Lewis, or maybe my father. He is just unbelievable, one of the best hitters in baseball. That turns this offense around in a big way. And I think when you look at this pitching matchup, Mitch Spence is the better of the two starters. But you've got a Twins offense that's really starting to pick it up right now, especially hitting for power. and spent some issues on contact for him. He's actually, but also behind him, the ace defense has not been very good at all. The pitcher I'm really looking at here is Simeon Woods Richardson. And speaking of the Mets, I'm not quite sure why people think this guy's good. He's had a decent start in 10 games now in his rookie year. He just had a cup of coffee for a couple of seasons with the Twins. But this is a guy, maybe it's because he was a Mets prospect or a second round pick, or I really can't tell you what the reason is why people think this guy was a highly touted prospect. It really just could be that he has a fun name and maybe they're confusing him with someone else. But you look at the numbers, he had an ERA above four runs at each level in the minors in terms of the good levels, double A and triple A. He was never a top 60 prospect on any ranking boards. And he doesn't really do a very good job of pitching. I mean, he doesn't strike out a lot of guys. He has some issues in the expected slugging department. And this is an A's team that just like the Mariners are very maddening, right? They do strike out at the second highest clip in baseball. The Mariners do still have them beat in that department. But when they don't strike out, they hit the ball incredibly hard. And that's been a big issue for Simeon Woods Richardson, limiting the hard hit balls and the barrels and the doubles and extra base hits. So I think both teams here are going to leave the seats or leave the yard and find the seats in this game. And Woods Richardson is going to run into an A's team that is fifth in barrels per batted ball. And while they're not fifth in barrel rate, or which would be barrels per plate appearance because they strike out a whole lot. When they hit the ball, they do a darn good job of hitting the ball. And Woods Richardson gives up a ton of contact. So this is a guy that I just think is gonna struggle in the slightest. And the A's bullpen is also kind of in a bad spot right here. Their young guys have started to regress a little bit. Lucas Ursaig is back from injury, but he gave up. He blew a save in his first start back or his first appearance back rather. I'm not quite sure if I can believe in him right now. He was also a slightly flawed pitcher to begin with. But the back end of the bullpen has really been the only thing that's worked for the A's. And he's one of those two pieces. And I don't know if they can trust him right now. So I think that everything points to a high scoring game here. And I do believe in this Twins offense quite a bit. They've really picked it up since Lewis came back. And I mean, why wouldn't he hit another home run tonight? He seems to hit a home run every night. So if he just clears a couple runners on the bases and then you got the A's producing some power, I think this game is going to fly over as well, the nine runs.”
MIN 6, OAK 5 — Minnesota beat Oakland 6-5; the combined 11 runs clear the over 9 (ESPN box score).
“Orioles and Phillies start a three-game series tonight, and these are two of the best teams in baseball. This easily could be a World Series preview. In about 90 seconds, just your thoughts on these two teams. Do you feel like the Phillies are the best team in the NL, the O's in the AL, or do you like maybe the Yankees, Dodgers, somebody else? I do feel like the Phillies might be the best team in the NL right now. I think the Dodgers have picked things up offensively. We look at their numbers, but they've had some soft matchups over the last couple of weeks. And they really are very top-heavy. Like, there's a lot of turmoil in the fan base right now with what's going on with Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux. No Miguel Vargas in the field. He's just not playing. There's a lot of issues. And now Kevin Biggio's getting at bats. Miguel Rojas, like, they can't find a spot for him. They're really missing Max Muncy right now, is what all of those four names having issues equate to. And I don't know if they're really as good as their numbers would say. The Braves certainly aren't. They're really just being driven by Marcelo Zuna. and this is a complete Phillies offense, one of the best hitting coaches of all time, I would say, and Kevin Long doing a very good job there. In this game specifically, I hate the Baltimore Orioles. I always hate Kyle Bredish because he's one of many fly ball pitchers that the Orioles employ. They pitch in a very unfriendly park for fly balls, so I don't know if that's going to equate to success here against a Phillies team that packs a big punch in the power department, really can convert fly balls into home runs at a very high rate. Ranger Suarez is a ground ball guy. the Orioles this year while they've had a few nice outings, a few nice games against ground ball pitchers. The numbers will point to the fact that they're much worse against ground ball pitchers than fly ball pitchers or those who find themselves in the middle. So I think this is actually a very good spot to play the Phillies as underdogs. I believe in Suarez here. I do like the platoon advantage as well with some of the powerful 10 of bats coming out of the equation for the Orioles. So yeah, give me them. And I do feel like the Phillies right now,”
PHI 5, BAL 3 — Philadelphia beat Baltimore 5-3 in 11 innings; the Phillies moneyline covers (ESPN box score/recap).
“courts out there in California are. So she is looking incredible right now. And I don't think there's going to be anything stopping her. There's a lot of shopping that's going on involved right now. If you go to BetMGM, she's minus 135 to win the tournament. I've seen her heavier at some places just a few weeks ago. She was, I believe, plus 110, plus 120. This line is going to continue to come down because while there are formidable competitors in this field, Arena Sabalenka is one of them you saw in the Rome final. Sabalenka, probably the next best player in the world, especially on clay, got absolutely dusted 6-2, 6-3 in that final in Rome. So I don't see if there's any reason not to take Sviantek at this number. And if she does get to the final and she faces, Sabalenka is probably the best case scenario if you were looking to, or the worst case scenario, rather, if you're looking to hedge. And Sviantek came into that final, I believe it as a minus 350 favorite. So it really makes total sense to take her at this number. If you want to hedge off in the final, you're going to get a huge number on the other side. And I don't think there's going to be anything stopping her from getting to the final given she'll have her own quarter and she'll obviously avoid the top four seeds because that's how the draw works. And then going to face the fourth seed in the semifinals. So I would definitely go ahead and take her at this number. I'd play her all the way probably to like minus 150. I think it's just that likely that she's going to win for a third straight time.”
6-2, 6-1 — Iga Swiatek defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-2, 6-1 in the 2024 French Open women's final (ESPN).
“And I'll leave you, though, with one guy who has been my pick for the last month when he was all the way back at plus 1,500 to win, and that is Alexander Zverev, the winner in Rome last week. He got to the U.S. Open final during the COVID year. He blew it in spectacular fashion. He's always had a tough time dealing with nerves, second serve yips for years. But he's really come along this whole last year, ever since he got hurt at Roland Garros two years ago. He had to rehab. He had to get himself back to full form last year. And now, guys, he looks like an unstoppable player on play. And for my money, the best player on play right now in the world is Alexander Zverev. You can still get him at plus 600 at BetMGM to win this tournament. That's probably my favorite bet. Djokovic, though. Djokovic, the other one. Plus 300 is at a slam with Djokovic. I know he hasn't won one, you know, in months now, but I think this could be the time with Rafa maybe bidding farewell in one of the early rounds with the way he's looked this year. I think the door could be wide open for Nole. so zverev sounds like i was gonna ask you like water gun to your head who wins the tournament”
6-3, 2-6, 5-7, 6-1, 6-2 — Carlos Alcaraz defeated Alexander Zverev 6-3, 2-6, 5-7, 6-1, 6-2 in the 2024 French Open men's final (ESPN); Zverev did not win the title.
“You can still get him at plus 600 at BetMGM to win this tournament. That's probably my favorite bet. Djokovic, though. Djokovic, the other one. Plus 300 is at a slam with Djokovic. I know he hasn't won one, you know, in months now, but I think this could be the time with Rafa maybe bidding farewell in one of the early rounds with the way he's looked this year. I think the door could be wide open for Nole. so zverev sounds like i was gonna ask you like water gun to your head who wins the tournament”
Carlos Alcaraz won the 2024 French Open men's singles title, defeating Alexander Zverev in the final; Novak Djokovic did not win the tournament (ESPN).
“it's just the fact that they're a terrible organization. Anyway, all that said, love the Rangers to win this division. They're a much, much better offense. I think that the Mariners are a dangerous team in the playoffs. You're always dangerous when you have a starting rotation just as good as theirs. They might have the best three starters in the league, in the entire league, but getting to the postseason, right, is a different story. And they play in a lot of low scoring games and they don't, that's because they just don't hit the ball. And even on the road, I know last night they got to Clay Holmes, the Yankee stadium. That's actually, I did have the over in that game because that's a very good matchup for them. A ground ball pitcher in a small park like that. You always want to play the Mariners, but I don't think they're going to win enough games to get in front of the Rangers the way that they've been comparable in with their pitching staff and their offense has been significantly better in my view I know they only have 100 WRC plus is what everyone wants to go off of but they've cut back the strikeouts significantly which is a big deal when you have so many young players they also do walk and they're hitting for just as much power as the Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners have kind of gotten into a little bit of a power struggle here uh if you want to call it that I don't know why I used that ridiculous way to describe it, but they're just not hitting for power right now. That was the only thing, the only redeeming quality of this team the last couple of years, and now they're not even doing that. So I am so out on the Seattle Mariners. I believe they're still winning the division as of this speaking by two games over the Rangers, but I like the Rangers to win this division. I think they're going to leave the Astros in the dust because there's a lot of issues with that starting rotation kind of on the flip side of Seattle, but that is a division I'm watching,”
The Houston Astros won the 2024 AL West with an 88-73 record; the Texas Rangers finished third at 78-84, behind the Seattle Mariners (85-77) (Wikipedia final standings).
“The Twins do have power, but they also strike out at the third highest clip in baseball. So I really, really like the Orioles here. They're minus 160, I believe. I don't love paying all the way up for that. So what I'll do instead to fade Chris Paddack is to take Grayson Rodriguez to allow fewer home runs. That's about a pick-em at BetMGM, which is a great bet. But if you don't have that market available to you, I don't mind taking the over on the team total for the Baltimore Orioles. And then also you could throw some home run darts out there as well.”
Grayson Rodriguez allowed 0 home runs while Chris Paddack allowed 3 as Baltimore beat Minnesota 11-3 (ESPN box score). (Rodriguez: 0 HR allowed; Paddack: 3 HR allowed)
“Cedric Mullins getting the home run swing going.”
Cedric Mullins did not homer; Baltimore's home runs came from Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and Ryan O'Hearn (ESPN box score). (Mullins: 0 home runs)
“Colton Couser's been red hot.”
Colton Cowser did not homer; Baltimore's home runs came from Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and Ryan O'Hearn (ESPN box score). (Cowser: 0 home runs)
“And also, how about Jordan Westburg?”
Jordan Westburg hit a home run as Baltimore beat Minnesota 11-3 (ESPN box score). (Westburg: 1 home run)
“I just don't know what is going on with this matchup, but it's the bad one for the Yankees for some reason. So give me the under here, eight and a half runs. I think that's way too high. Kenny, speaking of Carlos Rodon, a former Chicago White Sox player,”
TOR 5, NYY 4 — Toronto beat New York 5-4, nine combined runs, above the 8.5 total (ESPN box score).
“I think it's got to be Alexander Zverev on the men's side. I think his price is just simply not where it should be. Right now, you're able to get him at plus 1,800.”
Carlos Alcaraz won the 2024 French Open men's singles title, defeating Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3, 2-6, 5-7, 6-1, 6-2; Zverev did not win. (Winner: Carlos Alcaraz, d. Alexander Zverev)
“Yannick Sinner did just look like Superman last week, to be frank, in Monte Carlo. But look, he hasn't historically been great on the clay. the price here is i mean i think it's actually pretty good at plus 400 i would take him as well but i think there's just a lot of questions with how novak jokovic looked last week and how old he is now how he was able to basically this sort of aura that he has about him that you can't beat him is sort of gone now because sinner just wiped them at the australian open um you know alcaraz there's no value in that price and then a lot of these other guys are basically i would just group them in with zverev like medvedev sitzipas runa i i think he's got probably a better chance than all of these guys outside of Carlos and Novak and Sinner, I would give him the fourth best odds.”
Carlos Alcaraz won the 2024 French Open men's singles title, defeating Alexander Zverev in the final; Jannik Sinner did not win. (Winner: Carlos Alcaraz)
“I like the over on Shane Bieber K's at minus 115. You get the over six and a half strikeouts.”
5-2 — Shane Bieber struck out 9 over 6 scoreless innings against Seattle on April 2, 2024, clearing the over 6.5 strikeouts line (ESPN box score). (Shane Bieber: 9 strikeouts)
“You get the Guardians to win this game”
5-2 — Cleveland Guardians beat the Seattle Mariners 5-2 on April 2, 2024, so the Guardians moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I'd like them to win the division.”
The Milwaukee Brewers won the 2024 NL Central at 93-69; the Cubs finished 83-79 and missed the postseason (MLB.com). (Brewers 93-69, Cubs 83-79)
“I really don't hate taking a shot on them to win the World Series 35-1.”
The Cubs did not make the 2024 MLB playoffs; the Dodgers beat the Yankees 4 games to 1 to win the 2024 World Series (MLB.com). (Dodgers won series 4-1)
“I'm on Alexander Kovacevic, the American. That's a good live play, I think, right now.”
6-7(2), 6-3, 7-5 — Zhizhen Zhang defeated Aleksandar Kovacevic 6-7(2), 6-3, 7-5 in the first round of the 2024 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, so Kovacevic's moneyline lost (ESPN).
“So I do feel like he's worth a fade here against Dusan Lajovic. Very good slow court player. He's, I think, plus 175 to win this match. I really, really like that quite a bit.”
6-3, 6-3 — Frances Tiafoe defeated Dusan Lajovic 6-3, 6-3 in the second round of the 2024 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, so Lajovic's moneyline lost (ESPN).
“And I think he could really win this match. And I like his forehand especially. It's got so much shape on it. He's going to carve out some winners on this slow court. And I think he's going to win this match.”
6-4, 6-1 — Alexander Bublik defeated Shang Juncheng (Jerry Shang) 6-4, 6-1 in the second round of the 2024 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, so Shang's moneyline lost (ESPN).
“I also liked Brandon Nakashima as an underdog. Now he's at a pick-em, but I still like him to win that match as well.”
3-6, 6-3, 6-4 — Jiri Lehecka defeated Brandon Nakashima 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the second round of the 2024 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, so Nakashima's moneyline lost (ESPN).
“I also do have a future out on Daniil Medvedev. He's got a relatively easy quarter.”
6-3, 7-6(5), 6-3 — Novak Djokovic beat Daniil Medvedev 6-3, 7-6(5), 6-3 in the 2023 US Open men's final, so Medvedev did not win the title (ATP Tour).
“I think he's on upset alert tomorrow. I think you get in right now, it's on Jack Draper at plus 160. I think that price is going to come down a little bit before match time, But that's a very, very big bet that I'm looking at tomorrow.”
6-2, 6-4, 7-5 — Jack Draper defeated Hubert Hurkacz 6-2, 6-4, 7-5 in the second round of the 2023 US Open (ATP Tour).
“Ben Shelton live right now against Dominic Thiem hitting a huge ball, and I think he's going to win the mental war of attrition.”
7-6(1), 1-0 (Thiem retired) — Ben Shelton advanced to the third round of the 2023 US Open when Dominic Thiem retired while trailing 7-6(1), 1-0 (ATP Tour).
“Like Zhang Zhang tonight, plus five and a half games against Kasper Root. I'll be fading Kasper out tournament. He's been on a really bad run of form.”
6-4, 5-7, 6-2, 0-6, 6-2 — Zhizhen Zhang upset Casper Ruud 6-4, 5-7, 6-2, 0-6, 6-2 in the second round of the 2023 US Open, winning the match outright so his +5.5 games spread easily covered (ATP Tour).
“And tomorrow, take Lorenzo Sanigo to win a set against the Onyx Center. This guy played perfect tennis in round one, and Center's going to be on upset alert here. They always play bangers. I think it's going to be a very, very fun match to watch five sets. Sanigo's going to take at least one.”
Jannik Sinner beat Lorenzo Sonego 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 in straight sets in the second round of the 2023 US Open, so Sonego failed to win even one set (ATP Tour). (0 sets won)