Analyst · 6-4-1 on settled picks
“I'm taking the unders on christian mccaffrey uh 12 40 uh 1249 nine and a half rushing yards and nine and a half rushing touchdowns are the lines over at Caesars. I like the under on both of these guys and by a decent margin, actually.”
“my projection is about 400 yards off from his passing yardage line, which is 3,849 and a half yards this season. So here's the thing. Last season, he played pretty much every snap for this Browns offense. He ranked 10th in pass attempts in the NFL, and he was below this line, 38-27.”
“I'm in on Josh Jacobs. I mean, you just look back at first round running backs and their success in this league over the past decade, and it's kind of crazy. It's really hard to believe.”
“Well, you guys may not have heard about this guy. I don't know. He's a new up and comer. He hasn't achieved much in the in the NFL so far. So his name is Thomas Brady. He was a quarterback in Michigan. I don't know if you guys know him, but I think he might go over his passing yards, line, his passing yardage line this year.”
“I'm taking the unders on christian mccaffrey uh 12 40 uh 1249 nine and a half rushing yards and nine and a half rushing touchdowns are the lines over at Caesars. I like the under on both of these guys and by a decent margin, actually.”
Christian McCaffrey played only 3 games in 2020 due to injuries (ankle, shoulder, thigh), finishing with just 225 rushing yards on 59 carries and well under 9.5 rushing touchdowns for the season. (3 games played, 59 carries, 225 rush yds, 6 total TDs (rush+rec) for the season)
“I'm going to go with Travis Kelsey over 7.5 total touchdowns. I think it an overreaction the line to what happened last season”
Travis Kelce finished the 2020 season with 11 receiving touchdowns, exceeding the 7.5 line. (Travis Kelce 2020: 105 rec, 1,416 yds, 11 receiving TDs)
“his touchdown reception line is eight and a half right now at Caesars. I think that is too high.”
DeAndre Hopkins finished the 2020 season with 6 receiving touchdowns, under the 8.5 line. (DeAndre Hopkins 2020: 115 rec, 1,407 yds, 6 receiving TDs)
“I'm way on the under on this one, even at minus $1.20. Look, I get that he has produced touchdowns, but we have to look a little bit closer here.”
Cooper Kupp finished the 2020 season with only 3 receiving touchdowns, well under the 7.5 line. (Cooper Kupp 2020: 92 rec, 974 yds, 3 receiving TDs)
“I'm going to go to the defensive side of the ball, believe it or not. There's not a ton of those on the board, but I'm going to start with a rookie edge rusher, Josh Allen in Jacksonville. The line here, six and a half sacks at minus 110. I'm going under on this one.”
Josh (Hines-)Allen recorded 10.5 sacks as a rookie in 2019, well over the 6.5 line. (10.5 sacks)
“I'm liking the over on the total touchdowns for Devonta Freeman. And listen, I get he's a running back, and he missed a lot of time last year, and we know about the injury rate at this position. So this one makes me nervous for sure. But the line's 8.5, and I'm projecting him for closer to 11.”
Devonta Freeman scored 6 total touchdowns (2 rushing, 4 receiving) in 2019, under the 8.5 line. (6 total TDs (2 rush, 4 rec))
“I love this one a lot. Again, we're going to go with the over on the combination of sacks for Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, the line 16 and a half. And I have these two guys closer to 20 and a half.”
Melvin Ingram (7 sacks) and Joey Bosa (11.5 sacks) combined for 18.5 sacks in 2019, over the 16.5 line. (Ingram 7.0 + Bosa 11.5 = 18.5 combined sacks)
“So it's 123 and a half combined tackles for Van Der Esch. Here's the thing. He had 140 tackles last year, and he was playing 78% of the defensive snaps. I mean, there were times where he was off the field because Sean Lee was healthy.”
Leighton Vander Esch finished 2019 with 72 tackles (missed final weeks with a neck injury), well under the 123.5 line. (72 combined tackles in 9 games)
“You can get the over on the rushing touchdowns for Chris Carson. The line here is seven. I have him at nine rushing touchdowns.”
Chris Carson finished the 2019 season with exactly 7 rushing touchdowns, matching the line. (7 rushing touchdowns (1,230 rushing yards))
“Phillip Rivers passing touchdowns. The line right now is 28 and a half. I have him at 30 touchdowns, so I'm not too far off. But again, that line keeps getting closer and closer to me.”
Philip Rivers threw 23 passing touchdowns in 2019, under the 28.5 line. (23 passing touchdowns)
“I'm going with the under on this one to be clear. So last year, four running backs reached 1,700 yards. Kamara, not one of them.”
Alvin Kamara totaled 1,330 scrimmage yards in 2019, under the 1,699.5 line. (797 rushing + 533 receiving = 1,330 scrimmage yards)