Mike Gallagher

“And my favorite one right now is the Clippers under 40.5.”

The Clippers finished the 2024-25 regular season 50-32, above the 40.5-win line (ESPN standings). (Los Angeles Clippers 50-32)

“He's like plus 1,000 now, which I think I actually hit that before I came on”

Stephon Castle of the San Antonio Spurs won the 2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year award; Alex Sarr did not win (Wikipedia). (NBA Rookie of the Year: Stephon Castle)

“and I actually do like Boston under 58 and a half”

Boston finished the 2024-25 regular season 61-21, above the 58.5-win line (ESPN standings). (Boston Celtics 61-21)

“I'll just throw some six-man stuff. Portis, 16-1.”

Payton Pritchard of the Boston Celtics won the 2024-25 NBA Sixth Man of the Year award; Bobby Portis did not win (Wikipedia). (NBA Sixth Man of the Year: Payton Pritchard)

“I'll just throw some six-man stuff. Portis, 16-1. Dr. Givincenzo, 16-1.”

Payton Pritchard of the Boston Celtics won the 2024-25 NBA Sixth Man of the Year award; Donte DiVincenzo did not win (Wikipedia). (NBA Sixth Man of the Year: Payton Pritchard)

“Jaime Hopkins, 25-1.”

Payton Pritchard of the Boston Celtics won the 2024-25 NBA Sixth Man of the Year award; Jaime Jaquez Jr. did not win (Wikipedia). (NBA Sixth Man of the Year: Payton Pritchard)

“Ben Mathurin, 28-1.”

Payton Pritchard of the Boston Celtics won the 2024-25 NBA Sixth Man of the Year award; Bennedict Mathurin did not win (Wikipedia). (NBA Sixth Man of the Year: Payton Pritchard)

“Yeah, I have a Tatum problem, guys. So going into game one, I bet finals MVP. I researched again. I saw, I was like, okay, why is this price not right? I paid, hit him again. Researched again for game three, hit him again. So I can't stop betting Tatum finals MVP. He was priced at plus 145, 29 drives, passing the ball great.”

Jaylen Brown, not Tatum, won 2024 NBA Finals MVP, edging Tatum for the Bill Russell Trophy as the Celtics won the title (CBS Sports).

“So secondary role players, three-pointers, I actually like P.J. Washington over threes. Really sweet lines right now. They're like plus 175 for 2.5 or more. Kind of like that. I like big plus money three bets. So that's kind of one thing I'm looking at. I'm pretty much throwing out the poor shooting. And then just to add to that Luka Doncic passed the ball off drive 14 times That up from like eight His drives were up His shots off drives were way down Again a bit of a product of variance sure one game right”

PJ Washington went 2-for-5 on threes in Mavericks 124-103 Game 5 win over Minnesota, short of over 2.5 (ESPN box score). (Washington: 2-5 three-pointers made)

“his props in at 30 and a half like do you think that's something that continues would you look at maybe over points for tatum throughout this series could you continue to see him score you know 32 34 36 points each night yeah i'm i'm actually on tatum i took under oh excuse over 29 and a half i feel that's pretty good line so let's kind of talk about why uh the pacers are the best team at taking away catch and shoot threes and that's the thing you want to take away anyway so they're kind of like double double counting uh on limiting catch and shoot stuff and they did generally a pretty good job but tatum's drives were not high enough he he shot a ton i think he had eight shots off his i want to say 12 drives which is a pretty high percentage of shots off drives and it was great um the celtics as a team scored i think 32 points on their 45 drives which is a really really high number per drive do it more that's a really big weakness for the Pacers defense. So I expect Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown really, really to be more aggressive here. Very curious to see who Tyrese Halliburton guards. We can maybe talk about that. But just really quick, Drew killed him. So we actually, the ECR gang, we bet Derek White over because we think that he's going to guard, Halliburton's going to guard Derek White. But, yeah, I'm very, very bullish on Tatum. I write a matchup column, and I cover play the guy I'm most bullish on, and I put Tatum on both days. But with you guys on Tatum possibly having a big game today.”

Jayson Tatum scored 23 points in Game 2 of the East finals, under his 29.5-point line (ESPN box score). (Jayson Tatum 23 points)

“But the Cavs are playing a no-3s defense, which is great for Tatum. And then just another bet I like. I like Jalen Williams, J-Dub, over 24.5 points plus assists. He's getting Kyrie Irving on him. He has to dominate to take a little pressure off Shea. So those are kind of three player props that I hit that weren't really pure mathy projections numbers driven. There you go. A lot of really good stuff there. Mike Gallagher, you can follow him on x at Mike S. Gallagher. He's a senior NBA analyst.”

Jalen Williams recorded 12 points and 3 assists (15 combined) for Oklahoma City in Game 5 vs Dallas on May 15, below 24.5. (Williams: 12 pts + 3 ast = 15)

“Mike, on yesterday's show, we talked about Jayson Tatum a little bit, and you're like the perfect person to kind of talk about this topic because you're so in the weeds on player props and player performance. I mean, it's pretty notable just the shooting percentages, the three-point shooting percentage, points per game. Like all the raw stuff is down for Jayson Tatum in this playoffs. Now, look, it's been a bunch of blowouts in some of the games he hasn't played full minutes, but that's what these games are going to like. It's not stopping like they're going to keep being blowouts. His points were up tonight is twenty seven and a half. Still, I think he's only cleared that. I have to go back and check once this entire playoffs. Like to what do you attribute what's happening? Is this just blowout games and who cares? And he'll be great against the Knicks or whoever they play. Is there something else going on here? What about Jayson Tatum and his struggles so far? Yeah, so off the top, I hit this today. I'm buying low. I'll talk about why in a second. So I'm in at 26 and a half. I'm still okay with 27 and a half. So the big reason why his shooting has fallen off is jump shooting. In the playoffs, he's at .76 per possession. That's done like .3. That's a huge, huge dip. He getting he missing more catch and shoot stuff His no dribble efficiency is like way down 12 on effective field goal percentage He shooting more of them He shooting better shots and he missing more of the better shots They didn't use Evan Mobley on him in the last game. They used Max Struth on him. They put Isaac Okoro. So you've got the shooting regression. You've got the good matchup. You've got a team that's not going to be able to defend him, and they ran up the court on them. So I think Tatum smashes. I'm pretty heavily in on it, actually. be perfectly honest um i'm uh yeah i think i think it's all i think it's all just bad luck uh so yeah i'm expecting a big tatum game today i think you pulled out a best bet or something”

Jayson Tatum scored 25 points as Cleveland beat Boston 118-94 in Game 2 on May 9, 2024, below 27.5 (ESPN box score). (Tatum: 25 points)

“Just a couple quick bets to throw out that I wanted to share with you guys. Sure. I'm thinking Jalen Williams over 25.5 points in assists. I think that's really good.”

Jalen Williams had 20 points and 4 assists (24 combined) as Dallas beat OKC 119-110 in Game 2 on May 9, 2024, below 25.5 (ESPN box score). (Williams: 20 points + 4 assists = 24)

“But you could still bet Aaron Wiggins stuff. So, like, Aaron Wiggins over six-and-a-half points, over two-and-a-half rebounds. I think you can bet, like, Aaron Wiggins to kind of, like, bet on, bet against Giddy.”

Aaron Wiggins scored 6 points in the Thunder's 119-110 Game 2 loss to Dallas on May 9, 2024, below 6.5 (ESPN box score). (Wiggins: 6 points)

“People are going to vote for, like, he's going to finish second, I think. And if you just still get 30-1, why not?”

Naz Reid won the 2023-24 NBA Sixth Man of the Year award over Malik Monk and Bobby Portis (ESPN). (2023-24 Sixth Man of the Year: Naz Reid)

“And then I just think Sabonis is going to struggle with Anthony Davis. On top of this, Lakers making a lot of shots. They're second in offense in their last 10 games. So not as many misses. So I got some bonus under 42.5 points, rebounds, and assists.”

130-120 — Domantas Sabonis recorded a triple-double of 16 points, 20 rebounds, and 12 assists (48 combined) in Sacramento's 130-120 win over the Lakers on March 6, 2024, well over the 42.5 under line (ESPN box score). (Domantas Sabonis: 16 pts + 20 reb + 12 ast = 48)