Analyst · 5-17 on settled picks
| League | prop | futures | other | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4-7-10% | 1-9-81% | 0-1 | 5-17-46% |
“[15:36] Yeah, I'm going to echo Spencer on Tyrrell Hatton. [15:39] He just checked the box. [15:40] He's 32-1. [15:41] 32-1 at FanDuel. [15:43] Nice. [15:44] I still like that price. [15:45] I got it at 35-1 yesterday.”
Wyndham Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open, so Tyrrell Hatton did not win as stored (USGA).
“[25:35] Matchups, finishing position. [25:37] What else do you have? [25:38] I am going to go with Mito top 40 at plus 125 on FanDuel. [25:42] My numbers have it at plus one or even money at plus 100 there. [25:46] I usually look for 30 points of value in the placement market, [25:49] But I look around at all these different books in the marketplace. [25:54] They love Mito Pereira.”
Mito Pereira missed the cut at the 2023 U.S. Open, so top 40 lost as stored (USGA leaderboard).
“[10:08] well, since 2007, only one golfer has won the Masters. It's shorter to 10 to 1. So that would [10:13] be a DJ in 2020 at 8 to 1. So if you look at it from the longer point of view, who do you guys [10:19] kind of like there? Is there anyone that kind of sticks out? Yeah, Nick, who's on that card for you? [10:25] I want to hear one of those long shot guys that you've got. [10:28] I took Tiger at 85 to 1. [10:30] Oh, come on. [10:32] 85 to 1 on FanDuel.”
Official Masters results confirm that Tiger Woods to win settled lost as recorded.
“And then the other long shot I took, there's probably no chance in hell he actually wins, [10:42] but I love where his iron play is at. [10:43] I think it's the best stretch of his career in iron play. [10:47] I'll talk about him a little later in some other markets. [10:49] But Alex Noren at 340 to 1.”
Official Masters results confirm that Alex Noren to win settled lost as recorded.
“we're going to go with Tyrrell Hatton. Top 20 is plus 190 on FanDuel. I'm [27:49] taking a little bit of a discount.”
Official Masters results confirm that Tyrrell Hatton top 20 settled lost as recorded.
“I am going to go with Siwoo Kim over Mito Pereira. [30:12] It is minus 108 on FanDuel, so Siwoo is a slight dog there.”
Official Masters results confirm that Si Woo Kim over Mito Pereira (72-hole matchup) settled won as recorded.
“[32:03] more value in some of these props than are reflected in the numbers. All right, Nick, [32:09] your third best bet. All right, so I'm going back to Alex Noren because I'm sure we're not going to [32:13] get a 340 to 1 outright ticket, but Noren is playing the best iron from my data collected [32:19] and the expected data for Augusta. It's saying that this is the best iron play streak of his [32:25] career and he's 40 years old so that was pretty mind-boggling to see um obviously love the short [32:29] game love the putting as well with him i had the number in the top 20 priced at four to one you can [32:36] get five to one on fan duel and then in the top 40 market you can get 125 i have him priced at”
Official Masters results confirm that Alex Noren top 20 settled lost as recorded.
“[7:00] I mean, obviously, Rory's going to get a lot of the love from the public with his, you know, [7:03] past experience at the Open Championship. [7:06] I mean, Colin won it last year. [7:07] It seems like nobody has anything to say about Colin Morikawa this year. [7:11] So, no, not really. [7:12] like I think of a guy overall, my favorite play on the board in terms of any market I could really [7:17] get exposure to right now is Cam Smith. And he really doesn't have any open championship exposure [7:22] that you know really screams that the past history should create success here So to me not really I mean I want guys that are in form I think for the most part but that really all I care about this year I mean guys that finished in the top 10 previously it not a whole lot to me outside of Rory but you know [7:39] we don't need to read a lot to say that Rory's in great form right now and a great golfer overall. [7:44] Fair enough. Rory is your favorite on many boards at plus 900. I'm seeing right now on DraftKings, [7:50] And you got Xander Shoffley who's playing well as of late. [7:52] He's 12 to one down the board. [7:55] You mentioned Cam Smith. [7:56] He's 25 to one. [7:57] Morikawa, he's at 30 to one. [8:01] So look, I'm glad you brought this up because something about Cam Smith, [8:06] and we can kind of get into picks now. [8:08] We'll have best bets, some long shot picks, potentially some sleepers, [8:11] and then we'll get into some top 40 stuff, top 20s. [8:14] Spencer and Nick are all over it when they put together the card, [8:17] getting ready for these big events. [8:19] It's not just the big events, but other events throughout the course of the PGA Tour. [8:23] So, Nick, we'll go back to you. [8:25] Why, and just to kind of tee you up here, pun non-intended, but maybe it should be, [8:31] Cam Smith has the short game and the putting to take advantage of some of these par fours on this course, too. [8:37] Absolutely. So he's one of the best putters in the planet. [8:40] His short proximity is that Spencer touchdown earlier. [8:43] I strongly, strongly value 100 yards in on this course. [8:46] is around the green if he's even closer than 50 yards his proximities around the green are [8:50] incredible he's relatively long off the tee not really in comparison to a lot of you know the top”
The Open's official final leaderboard names Cameron Smith champion, confirming the future settled won as recorded.
“I did find a decent number on Keegan Bradley to miss the cut [16:44] at plus 150 on FanDuel.”
The PGA TOUR Open leaderboard confirms Keegan Bradley missed the cut, as recorded.
“just to reiterate, Russell Henley does show up is my my favorite bet of the week. [22:09] is his top 40 on FanDuel at plus 240.”
The PGA TOUR Open leaderboard confirms Russell Henley did not finish in the top forty, as recorded.
“of Russell Henley and really inflating that number. But Sam Burns was a favorite play for me in the top 40 market. FanDuel laid minus 105. It's down to minus 135 now, so I don't really want to recommend you chasing that number. But I absolutely love what Spencer said about Thomas Peters trying to find a more European style player. So I took Adrian Arnas top 40 on FanDuel plus 240. He's a long hitter. His proximity is great very strongly for me and he's a good slow putter. Putter on slow greens I should say. Decent form. But other than that I think the only other”
The PGA TOUR Open leaderboard confirms Adri Arnaus did not finish in the top forty, as recorded.
“the only other [23:22] sprinkle for me is going to be buying low on Hideki Matsuyama Top 30 on FanDuel is plus 130”
The PGA TOUR Open leaderboard confirms Hideki Matsuyama did not finish in the top thirty, as recorded.
“sprinkle for me is going to be buying low on Hideki Matsuyama Top 30 on FanDuel is plus 130 I believe that number should be closer to even money And then I guess I have one more sprinkle is buying low on Cam Young This guy was minus 150 to minus 175 to finish top 40 in any tournament that he played in the past couple of months. On FanDuel, that number is now plus 140. He's a guy that's excellent and windy, hits the ball a mile. His proximities within 100 yards are incredible. and he's very successful in putting on slow greens from the short career that we have data on. But I think buying low on Cam Young when the market went the other way is something I'm very interested in.”
The PGA TOUR Open leaderboard confirms Cameron Young finished in the top forty, as recorded.
“Daniel Berger top 40 is minus 115 on FanDuel. I believe that price is still live there My price is down at minus 175 I believe the market even had a 195 there I believe on DraftKings But my model absolutely loves the course fit here for Daniel Berger”
Official tournament leaderboard confirms the recorded settlement.
“I am a fanboy of Siwoo Kim. I think I bet him any chance I get when I see a plus number in the top 40 markets. I did punch the ticket there on FanDuel plus 150.”
Official tournament leaderboard confirms the recorded settlement.
“one last pick I believe would be Hideki Matsuyama 40 to 1 on FanDuel I think he's my actual pick to click this week. And my winner, if I had a one and done pool, is going to be Hideki Matsuyama”
Official tournament leaderboard confirms the recorded settlement.
“I think my favorite one despite laying so much juice which usually I do not like to do is Xander Shoffley minus 126 over Will Zellet on FanDuel”
Official Masters final results show Schauffele missed the cut while Zalatoris tied for sixth.
“[6:51] at the Scottish Open. So it had been a while, but we'll see, Rory, a little momentum, [6:55] at least playing last week. And not all golfers can say that heading into the Masters, the 86th [7:01] Masters tournament. How about you, Nick? How about your top placement bets or bets, [7:06] if you have multiple. The favorite one for me is going to be Sunjay M top 20. It seems like no one [7:12] in the public is talking about this guy. I know the iron play is not where it once was, but he's [7:17] one of the best putters on bent grass. He is a native of Georgia and he is a monster around the [7:22] green which is something my model values a ton this week He also an excellent scrambler That price is the best in the market I believe on draft kings at plus 210 sunjay m okay so i want to before we move on we have random prop bets coming your way”
Official Masters final results place Sungjae Im tied for eighth, inside the top twenty.
“[13:10] I believe he was with Billy Horschel and before that, Scott Piercy. [13:13] So he knows his way around Augusta, Georgia, [13:15] and that's something that I value a lot. [13:17] That is plus 400 on BetMGM. [13:21] Familiarity with the course, no doubt. [13:22] and Spencer, one of you mentioned this, something about, you know, just how Tiger walking around, [13:27] I think Spencer said this, just the fatigue of the course and making your way around Augusta.”
Official Masters final results show Sam Burns missed the cut.
“[14:28] There is a group matchup against Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka, Colin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth. [14:34] Rory is plus 330 on DraftKings there to win that group. [14:38] I think he should have been the favorite, which ended up belonging to Hovland at plus 275. [14:42] But I like that he's matched against four players where he is minus 130 or better at pretty much any offshore book that you can find. [14:49] Rory McIlroy quoted saying I could have won the Masters with 12 under par in 2015 but Jordan Spieth played much better than everyone else won by a few I always seem to play well when people give me a chance Lower expectations are a good thing and not to mention three of the last six PGA Tour wins have come after a missed cut as we discussed earlier in the show [15:08] Nick, your favorite outright pick for the Masters. [15:12] Like Spencer, I am on Rory, but two other tickets that I like a lot right now is Viktor Hovland, 22-1 on points bet, and then I am going to go back to Sam Burns.”
Official Masters final results identify Scheffler as champion, not Hovland.
“[14:49] Rory McIlroy quoted saying I could have won the Masters with 12 under par in 2015 but Jordan Spieth played much better than everyone else won by a few I always seem to play well when people give me a chance Lower expectations are a good thing and not to mention three of the last six PGA Tour wins have come after a missed cut as we discussed earlier in the show [15:08] Nick, your favorite outright pick for the Masters. [15:12] Like Spencer, I am on Rory, but two other tickets that I like a lot right now is Viktor Hovland, 22-1 on points bet, and then I am going to go back to Sam Burns. [15:22] I know we've never seen a first-time starter get the victory here, at least in, I believe, 50 years. [15:26] But Sam Burns is 50-1 on DraftKings. [15:31] Excellent. [15:32] The reason I'm taking him outright is just the putter.”
Official Masters final results identify Scheffler as champion, not Burns.
“[15:08] Nick, your favorite outright pick for the Masters. [15:12] Like Spencer, I am on Rory, but two other tickets that I like a lot right now is Viktor Hovland, 22-1 on points bet, and then I am going to go back to Sam Burns. [15:22] I know we've never seen a first-time starter get the victory here, at least in, I believe, 50 years. [15:26] But Sam Burns is 50-1 on DraftKings. [15:31] Excellent. [15:32] The reason I'm taking him outright is just the putter. [15:34] I think this is a putter's course as well, and he's one of the best putters on tour.”
Official Masters final results identify Scheffler as champion, not Sungjae Im.