Tony Finau top-5/top-10/top-20
“I will tell you for those who are going to watch the gimme on Wednesday evening, I will be very heavily invested in those Finau props.”
Tony Finau finished T2 (runner-up) at the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open, behind winner Patrick Reed. A T2 finish qualifies as a top-5 finish (and top 10 and top 20). Source: pgatour.com/monday-finish/2021/02/01/five-things-2021-farmers-insurance-open-patrick-reed-wins-torrey-pines.html (Finau T2 at Farmers Insurance Open)
Sepp Straka to win
“I've already got him outright. I listed him as a top 10 play in my column this week.”
Sepp Straka missed the cut at the 2021 American Express, finishing at +2 over 54 holes and failing to advance to the final round. Si Woo Kim won. Source: cbssports.com/golf/leaderboard/pga-tour/26496770/the-american-express/ (Straka missed cut (+2 after 54 holes))
Sepp Straka top 10
“I've already got him outright. I listed him as a top 10 play in my column this week.”
Sepp Straka missed the cut at the 2021 American Express and therefore did not finish in the top 10. Source: cbssports.com/golf/leaderboard/pga-tour/26496770/the-american-express/ (Straka missed cut (+2 after 54 holes))
Wyndham Clark to win
“Wyndham Clark, I mean, he is definitely right there as the best putter 10 feet in and can make a ton of birdies. I show a ton of value on him.”
Wyndham Clark did not win the 2021 American Express. Si Woo Kim won at -23. Source: cbssports.com/golf/leaderboard/pga-tour/26496770/the-american-express/recap/ (Si Woo Kim winner; Clark did not win)
Brendan Steele to win (+22500)
“I showed a good bit of value on Steely. You can get Steely in some markets like 200 plus to one. 225, I see a 230 out there. I mean, that's something I'm very interested in.”
Kevin Na won the 2021 Sony Open in Hawaii. Brendan Steele led after 54 holes but shot a final-round 69 and finished T4, two shots behind winner Kevin Na. Source: https://www.golfdigest.com/story/sony-open-in-hawaii-2021-brendan-steele-lets-title-slip-away-for-second-straight-year-no-redemption (Steele: T4, 54-hole leader; Kevin Na won)
Charles Howell III top 20 · BetMGM
“I show him as a slight negative value in the outright markets but actually show value on him as a top 20 and top 10 pick on MGM where ties get hit out in full and that track record is really good”
Charles Howell III finished T8 at the 2021 Sony Open in Hawaii, continuing his impressive streak at Waialae. A T8 finish qualifies as top 20. Source: https://www.golfdigest.com/story/charles-howell-iii-continues-two-streaks-at-sony-open-one-impressive-the-other-disappointing (CHIII: T8)
Patton Kizzire to win
“I'm on Patton too. I think that's a really sharp call.”
2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic was won by Viktor Hovland at -20 (264). Patton Kizzire did not win or contend; not among confirmed top finishers. Source: PGA Tour official recap (pgatour.com/article/news/daily-wrapup/2020/12/06/viktor-hovland-birdies-last-hole-to-win-mayakoba-golf-classic); GolfNewsNet final results. (Hovland won; Kizzire not in top 4)
Justin Rose to win the Masters
“With you on Rose, that's probably the guy I'm most bullish on.”
2020 Masters was won by Dustin Johnson at -20. Justin Rose led after Round 1 (65) but faded over the weekend and finished outside the top 10, approximately -7 to -8. Source: Wikipedia 2020 Masters Tournament; Bleacher Report Masters 2020 final leaderboard. (Rose led R1, faded to outside T10)
Harold Varner III to win (+2200) · BetMGM
“My favorite play in this week, who's the opposite of those two, I don't think he has the most win equity, but I'd take him in a matchup versus anyone is Harold Varner. So I'm always on Harold Varner. He's amazing off the tee, super consistent, doesn't putt at the best, but, I mean, he's been really, really good. He's 22-1 on BetMGM.”
2020 Bermuda Championship was won by Brian Gay in a playoff. Harold Varner III missed the cut after a second-round 80 (rounds of 69-80). Source: ProGolfNow (progolfnow.com/2020/10/30/bermuda-championship-harold-varner-iii-struggles-friday); GolfNewsNet final results. (Varner III MC (69-80))
Hideki Matsuyama to win · BetMGM
“The guy that I see the most value in, I think Matsuyama is far and away the guy that I want to invest in here.”
2020 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (TPC Summerlin) was won by Martin Laird (-23) in a three-way playoff over Matthew Wolff and Austin Cook. Hideki Matsuyama missed the cut after rounds of 68-69 (137, -5). Source: GolfNewsNet final results; ProGolfNow recap (progolfnow.com/2020/10/11/shriners-open-winners-losers-las-vegas). (Matsuyama MC (68-69))
Jon Rahm to win · BetMGM
“as always, I'm going to be on Jon Rahm. Over the last couple of years, I think the best player has been Jon Rahm, and I'm comfortable saying he should be the clear favorite this week.”
Bryson DeChambeau won the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot; Jon Rahm finished T23 and did not win. (DeChambeau 274 (-6); Rahm +10 (290), T23)
Rory McIlroy top 5 / top 10 · BetMGM
“I will bet Rory and Xander in some top fives and top tens with the no dead heat rule. So those guys are really interesting.”
Rory McIlroy finished T8 at +6, making the top 10 (though not top 5) at the 2020 U.S. Open. (McIlroy 67-76-68-75=286 (+6), T8)
Xander Schauffele top 5 / top 10 · BetMGM
“I will bet Rory and Xander in some top fives and top tens with the no dead heat rule. So those guys are really interesting.”
Xander Schauffele finished outright 5th at +4, hitting both top 5 and top 10 at the 2020 U.S. Open. (Schauffele 68-72-70-74=284 (+4), solo 5th)
Patrick Reed to win over Colin Morikawa
“I'm going Patrick Reed, who I like way more than Fitz. I really like Patrick Reed this week. I think he's a phenomenal BFS play. I think he's a great betting play.”
Patrick Reed (T13, +7, made the cut) beat Colin Morikawa (missed the cut, +7 after 36) at the 2020 U.S. Open. (Reed 66-70-77-74=287 (+7) T13; Morikawa missed cut)
Brendan Steele to win (+2200) · BetMGM
“Well, easiest pick on the board.”
Stewart Cink won the 2020 Safeway Open; Brendan Steele did not win. (Winner: Stewart Cink)
Harold Varner III to win (+2500) · BetMGM
“Best shoot game on tour, and a guy I really like this week is Harold Varner,”
Stewart Cink won the 2020 Safeway Open; Harold Varner III did not win. (Winner: Stewart Cink)
Carlos Ortiz to win
“and I definitely want exposure to him at that price.”
Stewart Cink won the 2020 Safeway Open; Carlos Ortiz did not win. (Cink 267 (-21) def. Harry Higgs by 2)
Jon Rahm to win
“I will still have him near the top, but Jon Rahm is my guy for next week,”
Bryson DeChambeau won the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot; Jon Rahm finished T23 and did not win. (DeChambeau 274 (-6) def. Matthew Wolff by 6; Rahm +10 (290), T23)
Colin Morikawa to win
“A guy that I'm on is Colin Morikawa, who I've talked a lot about on this podcast. I think he's a little undervalued coming into this week on a course that sets up extremely well for Colin.”
Dustin Johnson won the 2020 Tour Championship at -21; Colin Morikawa finished T6 at -13. (Winner: Dustin Johnson (-21); Morikawa finished -13, T6)
Jon Rahm to win
“This week, I'm going to be all over Jon Rahm again. He is the expensive guy that I am going to be paying for.”
Dustin Johnson won the 2020 Tour Championship at -21; Jon Rahm finished 4th at -17. (Winner: Dustin Johnson (-21); Rahm finished -17, 4th)
Billy Horschel to win
“I really like Billy Horschel. Billy Horschel played awesome on the weekend and got nothing out of his route.”
Dustin Johnson won the 2020 Tour Championship at -21; Billy Horschel did not win. (Winner: Dustin Johnson (-21))
Brendan Todd top 5 (+1100) · BetMGM
“I love him for top five bets this week. I think it's going to be a really nice week for Todd.”
Brendon Todd finished tied for 20th at the 2020 Tour Championship, well outside the top 5. (Brendon Todd: T20 (-4, 274 total))
Brendan Todd top 10 (+190) · BetMGM
“Brendan Todd is, you know, pretty strong value. He's plus 1,100 to be top five. He's starting off in 11th, like you mentioned. Top 10, I mean, you look at a guy like DJ's, minus 2,500. John Rahm, minus 1,250. you're looking at some really, really heavy, you know, you're laying a lot to win a little with the top end guys. So it's tough to do that. But Brendan Todd, I mean, he's right up there plus 190. You're going to plus money still on Brendan Todd for top 10.”
Brendon Todd finished tied for 20th at the 2020 Tour Championship, outside the top 10. (Brendon Todd: T20 (-4, 274 total))
Billy Horschel to win
“And yeah, last week, almost a huge week with Billy Horschel winning. And my actual item is I'm going back to Billy Horschel, who's in great form and has a history of playing well in the FedEx. So I am buying Billy Horschel again this week.”
Dustin Johnson won the 2020 Northern Trust by 11 shots at TPC Boston; Billy Horschel did not win. (Dustin Johnson -30, won by 11 strokes)
Sungjae Im to win
“But, yeah, my favorite play in the midrange is Sung Jae Im, who is really starting to get a lot of notoriety again.”
Dustin Johnson won the 2020 Northern Trust by 11 shots; Sungjae Im did not win. (Dustin Johnson -30, won by 11 strokes)
Ryan Palmer to win
“The longest shot that I like the most is probably Ryan Palmer who maybe is in the bottom of the mid given how many great golfers we have”
Dustin Johnson won the 2020 Northern Trust by 11 shots; Ryan Palmer did not win. (Dustin Johnson -30, won by 11 strokes)
Jason Day to win FedEx Cup (+5000)
“I actually think he's in that top tier and I would throw him in the top five or six golfers right now in the world, uh, for tomorrow. If I had to tee up at a normal course you know just an average course uh I would put Jason Day as one of the top five or six golfers in the world and he certainly could get hot and at 50 to one i like that price quite a bit so jason day is a guy”
Dustin Johnson won the 2019-20 FedEx Cup at the Tour Championship; Jason Day did not win. (Dustin Johnson wins FedEx Cup, 3 strokes clear at East Lake)
Jonathan Vegas to win
“a guy we talk about a ton, Johnny Vegas. One of the guys that I absolutely love this week, betting perspective, DFS.”
Michael Thompson won the 2020 3M Open by two shots at TPC Twin Cities; Jhonattan Vegas did not win. (Thompson -19 (265) to win by 2)
Sam Burns to win
“Burns is probably my other guy that I just I'm gonna have a ton of I think burns is so good off the tee just uber long really talented player”
Michael Thompson won the 2020 3M Open; Sam Burns did not win (Tony Finau finished T3). (Thompson -19 (265) to win by 2)
Jon Rahm to win
“Well, I'm on John Rahm again. It's another day ending in Y. I've been having John Rahm since we came back from break.”
Collin Morikawa won the 2020 Workday Charity Open in a playoff over Justin Thomas; Jon Rahm did not win. (Morikawa -19 def. Thomas -19 in playoff (3rd extra hole))
Sungjae Im to win
“Sungjae is undervalued.”
Bryson DeChambeau won the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic; Sungjae Im did not win. (DeChambeau -23 to win by 3)
Jon Rahm to win
“and I'm buying Jon Rahm in every format.”
Dustin Johnson won the 2020 Travelers Championship by one stroke over Kevin Streelman; Jon Rahm did not win. (Dustin Johnson -8 to win by 1)
Jon Rahm to win
“And the guy at the top that I will be buying for sure,”
Webb Simpson won the 2020 RBC Heritage at 22-under, one shot ahead of Abraham Ancer; Jon Rahm did not win. (Winner: Webb Simpson (-22))
Matt Kuchar to win
“and I will be looking to invest in Matt Kutcher in a variety of formats.”
Webb Simpson won the 2020 RBC Heritage at Harbour Town, one shot ahead of Abraham Ancer; Matt Kuchar did not win. (Webb Simpson -22 (T64 to win by 1); Kuchar did not finish 1st)
Phil Mickelson & Tom Brady
“I think that that's too steep of a price, even with the course knowledge for Tiger.”
Tiger Woods & Peyton Manning beat Phil Mickelson & Tom Brady 1-up at The Match: Champions for Charity. (Woods/Manning def. Mickelson/Brady, 1 up)
Rickie Fowler & Matthew Wolff ML (plus money)
“going to go with the plus money with Ricky and Wolfe Just because of what Keegan said, I think there's a lot of variance”
Rory McIlroy & Dustin Johnson beat Rickie Fowler & Matthew Wolff 11-7 in skins at the TaylorMade Driving Relief charity match. (McIlroy/Johnson def. Fowler/Wolff, 11-7 skins)
Tiger Woods to win
“I'm going to start this one off with your pro-am partner. All right. A guy by the name of Tiger Woods. I just think that it's time.”
Adam Scott won the 2020 Genesis Invitational; Tiger Woods did not win, finishing T-68 at 5-over. (Woods: 68th, +5)
Abraham Ancer top 5 (+1300)
“My favorite bet on the week right now I found Abraham answer at plus 1300 for a top five That is hands down my top bet”
Abraham Ancer finished tied for 43rd at even par, well outside the top 5 at the 2020 Genesis Invitational. (Ancer: T43, E (284))
Daniel Berger (+110)
“my favorite bet so far that I'm looking at is actually fading Jordan Spieth getting Berger”
Daniel Berger won the 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at -18, finishing well ahead of Jordan Spieth (T5, -15). (Berger -18 (1st) vs Spieth -15 (T5))
Victor Hovland (-145)
“that actually my best bet of the week is Victor Hovland over Jordan Spieth in a matchup Fortunately the line has moved a decent bit”
Both golfers missed the 36-hole cut at the 2020 WM Phoenix Open, so the matchup settled on 36-hole score; Victor Hovland's 142 (70-72) beat Jordan Spieth's 143 (74-69) by one shot. (Hovland 142 (MC) def. Spieth 143 (MC))
Gary Woodland to win · DraftKings
“I'm going to go Gary Woodland, who's one of my overall favorite plays at 9,500. Mentioned it before, just a perfect course fit for him.”
Gary Woodland missed the cut at the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open (Marc Leishman won). (Woodland: 145 (+1), missed cut)
Sung Jae Im to win
“Is your guy this week is that one guy if you had to pick to win Yeah I taking Sungjae if I had to pick one guy which is a chalky answer He the number two favorite in the field right now But I think he is going to have an incredible year And this is a perfect situation for him”
Andrew Landry won the 2020 American Express; Sung Jae Im did not win. (Winner: Andrew Landry (-26))
Aaron Wise to win (+10000)
“I guess I'd take Aaron Wise as one. He's anywhere from 80 to 100 to one. And if you are betting these outrights, make sure whatever options you have in terms of books, you are shopping for the best price, especially on these outrights, you can see some pretty wild discrepancies between the prices. So that's something I'm always trying to do. And Aaron Wise, on the places I'm looking, he's anywhere from like 75 to 100 to 1. So at 100 to 1, I actually like Aaron Wise, and that would be my outright winner.”
Andrew Landry won the 2020 American Express; Aaron Wise did not win. (Winner: Andrew Landry (-26))
Rory McIlroy to win a major in 2020 (Yes) (+250)
“I'm going to take the yes on that one at plus 250. I love Rory this year. I'm not saying anything new. I thought he was by far the best golfer last year. Didn't win a major, but won the players and had one of the best statistical years.”
Rory McIlroy did not win a major in 2020; his best finish was a tie for 5th at the Masters, and he went winless in majors until 2025. (Best 2020 major finish: T5 at the Masters)
Jon Rahm to win a major in 2020 (Yes) (+350)
“Give me all that plus money. I am all in on Jon Rahm right now.”
Jon Rahm did not win a major in 2020; his first major title came at the 2021 U.S. Open. (0 majors won by Rahm in 2020)
Colin Morikawa vs Jordan Spieth (matchup, Morikawa -115) (-115)
“That's my favorite bit of the week by a mile. I was going to bring that up here at the close.”
Jordan Spieth missed the 54-hole cut and did not finish the tournament, so Colin Morikawa (who completed all four rounds) won the head-to-head matchup by default. (Spieth missed 54-hole cut (7-over 77 in R3); Morikawa completed the event)
Justin Thomas to win (+4550)
“I seldom bet outright, and he's the only outright position I have at 45.5-1.”
Shane Lowry won the 2019 Open Championship; Justin Thomas finished T11, not the winner. (Lowry -15 winner; Justin Thomas -3 (T11))
Lucas Glover over matchup opponent (matchup) (-105)
“I'm seeing Glover minus 105. That intuitively doesn't feel great, but Glover is coming off a really good week last week. And his ball striking has been there, but I think he's rounding into form again. So I think that's some decent value.”
Head-to-head matchup opponent is not recorded in the pick data, so the bet cannot be graded.
Collin Morikawa over Daniel Berger
“Yeah let stay on the young guns stance here Morikawa I think is another really talented dude I been so impressed by him He up against Daniel Berger and I seen him anywhere from plus money
to minus 110, minus 115
basically as a coin flip.
You want to shop for the best line, but
I like him straight up over Berger
for sure.”
Morikawa finished runner-up at -20 (264), well clear of Berger's T15 -14. (3M Open — Morikawa -20 (264), Berger -14 (270))
Justin Thomas to win (+4550)
“I'm on JT to win it at plus 4550.”
Shane Lowry won the 2019 Open Championship at Royal Portrush; Justin Thomas finished T11. (Winner: Shane Lowry; JT finished T11)
Bills ML
“team after that heartbreaking loss is in big trouble. So that's my favorite bet of the week.”
BUF 24, JAX 21 — Buffalo Bills won; moneyline covers.
Vikings -3
“I'm massive on the Vikings here.”
MIN 24, GB 17 — Minnesota Vikings margin +7 vs line -3; covers.