Rob Brown

“I'll tell you why I am going to take, or I should say lay, the 3.5 with Kansas City.”

DAL 31, KC 28 — Dallas beat Kansas City 31-28; the Chiefs' -3 margin busts laying -3.5 (ESPN box score).

“give me derrick henry by the way i'm gonna go all right i'm going off the reservation a bit with this one give me derrick henry to score two touchdowns in this game at plus 260”

CIN 32, BAL 14 — Derrick Henry scored only 1 rushing touchdown (28 yards) as Cincinnati beat Baltimore 32-14, short of the 2+ touchdown line (ESPN box score). (Derrick Henry: 1 TD (28-yd rush))

“But I'm I'm laying the five and a half with Baltimore. I know that they're not a great football team. I get it. I'm laying it anyway.”

CIN 32, BAL 14 — Cincinnati beat Baltimore 32-14; the Ravens' -18 margin busts laying -5.5 (ESPN box score).

“Give me a Saquon Barkley touchdown, minus 120. I know he's been killing me and I keep going back to the well.”

PHI 15, CHI 24 — Saquon Barkley rushed 13 times for 56 yards with 0 touchdowns as Chicago beat Philadelphia 24-15; the anytime TD does not hit (ESPN box score). (Saquon Barkley: 13 car, 56 yds, 0 TD; 1 rec, 0 yds)

“I'll take it at Texas A&M minus two and a half.”

TEX 27, TA&M 17 — Texas beat Texas A&M 27-17; the Aggies lost outright, missing the -2.5 spread (ESPN).

“I think Matthew Golden is a dude. and at 30-1, not a bad pick.”

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan won the 2025 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year at NFL Honors, beating out Matthew Golden (NFL.com). (Winner: Tetairoa McMillan)

“I've got a ticket on Clemson to win the ACC.”

Duke 27, Virginia 20 — Duke beat Virginia 27-20 in overtime to win the 2025 ACC Championship; Clemson did not win the ACC.

“I'm going to put a ticket down on Clemson to make the playoffs”

Clemson was not among the 12 teams selected for the 2025-26 College Football Playoff (Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Alabama, Miami, Tulane, James Madison). (Clemson: not selected (12-team field named above))

“I'm going to take the Mets Brewers over eight tonight.”

Mets 3, Brewers 2 — The Mets beat the Brewers 3-2 on July 3, 2025 (combined 5 runs); the over 8 total busts.

“Chicago and Cleveland, the Cubbies give me Kyle Tucker over .5 RBIs. That is at plus 175.”

Kyle Tucker went 0-for-3 with a walk and no RBIs for the Cubs against the Guardians on July 3, 2025, below the 0.5 RBI line. (Tucker: 0 RBI (0-for-3, 1 BB))

“I'm also going to go the under eight and a half in that game.”

Giants 7, Diamondbacks 2 — The Giants beat the Diamondbacks 7-2 on July 3, 2025 (combined 9 runs); the under 8.5 total busts.

“And why not keep it hot? Cal Raleigh over one and a half bags.”

Cal Raleigh went 0-for-5 with zero total bases for the Mariners against the Royals on July 3, 2025, below the 1.5 total-base line. (Raleigh: 0-for-5, 0 total bases)

“I'm going to go Kelsey Plum over 18.5 points scored.”

Kelsey Plum scored 13 points (2-for-10 FG, 9-for-10 FT) for the Sparks against the Liberty on July 3, 2025, well under the 18.5 line. (Plum: 13 points (2-for-10 FG, 9-for-10 FT))

“I might as well just go ahead and pitch the ticket for Denver to win the West”

The San Antonio Spurs, not Denver, won the 2026 Western Conference, defeating Oklahoma City in the Conference Finals (Wikipedia). (2026 Western Conference champion: Spurs)

“I've got to bet out on him and Cade Klumnik, both to be Heisman finalists this year”

The four 2025 Heisman finalists were Jeremiyah Love, Fernando Mendoza, Diego Pavia and Julian Sayin; LaNorris Sellers was not among them (Heisman Trust). (Finalists: Love, Mendoza, Pavia, Sayin)

“I've got to bet out on him and Cade Klumnik, both to be Heisman finalists this year”

The four 2025 Heisman finalists were Jeremiyah Love, Fernando Mendoza, Diego Pavia and Julian Sayin; Cade Klubnik was not among them (Heisman Trust). (Finalists: Love, Mendoza, Pavia, Sayin)

“picking the Angels on the money line at plus 125, Jake Hassan, because me too.”

Braves 8, Angels 3 — Atlanta Braves beat the Los Angeles Angels 8-3 on July 2, 2025; the Angels moneyline lost (ESPN box score).

“I got his strikeout number at four and a half earlier in the day.”

Mets 7, Brewers 3 — Jacob Misiorowski struck out 2 Mets hitters over 3.2 IP as the Brewers starter in New York's 7-3 win (game 2 of the July 2 doubleheader), below the 4.5 line (ESPN box score). (Misiorowski: 2 strikeouts)

“I am in on a Lenora Sellers Heisman prop”

Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza won the 2025 Heisman Trophy (Heisman.com); LaNorris Sellers did not win. (2025 Heisman winner: Fernando Mendoza)

“I've got a ticket on South Carolina to make the playoffs too.”

The 2025-26 College Football Playoff 12-team field was Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Alabama, Miami (FL), Tulane, and James Madison (Wikipedia 2025-26 College Football Playoff page); South Carolina did not make the field.

“I'm going to fade Paul Skeens here. Over one and a half earned runs.”

Paul Skenes threw 5 scoreless innings (0 earned runs) against St. Louis on July 1, 2025 (ESPN box score); under the 1.5 earned-runs line. (Skenes: 0 earned runs in 5 IP)

“I'm also going to go over one and a half walks allowed for Paul Skeens at minus 105.”

Paul Skenes allowed 1 walk in 5 innings against St. Louis on July 1, 2025 (ESPN box score); under the 1.5 walks-allowed line. (Skenes: 1 walk allowed)

“So I'm going to go Didier Fuentes under five and a half K's before he gets run.”

Braves rookie Didier Fuentes' start referenced in the pick occurred July 2, 2025 vs the Angels (he did not pitch July 1); he struck out 6 in 3.2 innings (ESPN box score), over the 5.5 line. (Fuentes: 6 strikeouts in 3.2 IP)

“And then I'll wrap it up with the Giants plus 115 on the money line today”

ARI 8, SF 2 — Arizona beat San Francisco 8-2 on July 1, 2025 (ESPN box score); the Giants moneyline busts.

“I'm going to start with Courtney Williams, over 12.5 points scored at minus 113.”

IND 74, MIN 59 — Courtney Williams scored 11 points in Minnesota's 74-59 loss to Indiana in the July 1, 2025 Commissioner's Cup Final (ESPN box score); under the 12.5 line. (Courtney Williams: 11 points)

“Aliyah Boston, over 15.5 points. No Kaitlyn Clark. Aliyah Boston. And Farberk, Gamecock, shout out to the USC. This is her time to shine. That is an even money prop, by the way, as well.”

IND 74, MIN 59 — Aliyah Boston scored 12 points in Indiana's 74-59 win over Minnesota in the July 1, 2025 Commissioner's Cup Final (ESPN box score); under the 15.5 line. (Aliyah Boston: 12 points)

“It's a big number at 36.5 total points, rebounds, and assists. It's at minus 105, so a little juice to the over. I'm going to take it there.”

Napheesa Collier had 12 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists (24 combined) in Minnesota's 74-59 loss on July 1, 2025 (ESPN box score); well under the 36.5 line. (12 points + 9 rebounds + 3 assists = 24)

“I will tell you right now, I'd make that bet.”

Miami finished the 2025 season 7-10, in third place in the AFC East, not fourth (Wikipedia 2025 Miami Dolphins season page). (Dolphins 7-10, 3rd in AFC East)

“I had Minkah Fitzpatrick over four and a half picks this year”

Minkah Fitzpatrick recorded 1 interception in the 2025 regular season, well under the 4.5 line (NFL.com player stats). (Fitzpatrick: 1 interception)

“I am making a play that this is the year Buffalo breaks through to become a Super Bowl attendee.”

The New England Patriots represented the AFC in Super Bowl LX for the 2025 season, defeating Denver 10-7 in the AFC Championship Game; Buffalo did not win the AFC (Wikipedia Super Bowl LX page). (AFC Championship: Patriots 10, Broncos 7)

“[28:47] So I'm going to stay with my under and I think it's a good play. [28:50] I, I'm, I'm probably going to ride that one with you. [28:54] I, I think the under, even at just seven, I do like it at the seven, [28:58] no hook, the push on the table there, minus one 15 to the over minus one Oh [29:03] five to the under on that.”

SEA 6, SF 5 — Mariners beat Giants 6-5 in 10 innings on Aug 23, 2024, a combined 11 runs, over the 7 total (ESPN box score).

“[12:06] A little bit of juice at minus 115. [12:08] I don't mind drinking it. [12:09] I apologize, Jeremy Conant in advance. [12:11] I'm going against you on this one. [12:12] I'm actually not only taking the Astros. [12:15] The Astros are one of my best bets tonight.”

BAL 7, HOU 5 — Astros lost to the Orioles 5-7 (ESPN box score); Houston moneyline busts.

“[34:35] making his way back into the lineup after missing 10 days with a UCL spring. [34:39] Give me Jazz Chisholm Jr., who has been very good for the Yankees. [34:43] Over one and a half hits, runs, and RBIs tonight. [34:47] Had some rest, had some R&R, as long as that UCL isn't giving him anything that's lingering. [34:52] And I'll tell you, considering, as I've mentioned before, [34:55] I don't think the Yankees or anybody else are necessarily avoiding that number one seed in the bye, [35:01] but I also don't think anybody's really trying to kick ass and for sure earn it. [35:05] If he was having any issues, I think they'd hold him back. [35:08] I am going to go with Jazz Chisholm Jr. [35:11] Over one and a half hits, runs, and RBIs. [35:13] You're catching that at plus money, plus 105.”

Jazz Chisholm Jr. went 0-for-3 with a strikeout in the Yankees' 3-0 win over Colorado, recording 0 hits, 0 runs, 0 RBIs (ESPN box score); under 1.5 combined H+R+RBI busts the over. (0 H, 0 R, 0 RBI)

“[36:10] Ladies and gentlemen, take the Florida State Seminoles minus 10.5. [36:14] You've been given a gift, my dear friends. [36:18] It's lined open at 13.5. [36:19] I didn't want it. [36:21] I said I'm only taking it if it comes down. [36:23] It did. [36:25] The Noles are now sitting at minus 10.5. [36:28] You're catching that. [36:29] depending on what book you're looking at, anywhere from minus 110 to minus 115. [36:34] I am going to take that one, and I am also going in the same game, [36:38] over 55 and a half as well.”

GT 24, FSU 21 — Georgia Tech upset Florida State 24-21 on a last-second field goal (ESPN); FSU lost outright, so -10.5 busts.

“[36:34] I am going to take that one, and I am also going in the same game, [36:38] over 55 and a half as well. [36:42] Why? [36:43] Haynes King, Jamal Hines, Roydale Williams, [36:46] and a cast of Florida State running backs that are home run threats [36:50] every time they touch the ball. [36:52] I think Florida State is going to be threatening 40-plus points in this game. [36:57] They certainly get into the 30s I just need a couple of Hanes King specials and we are getting good shape I talked myself into it I going with the Noles in the cover and the over in that game”

GT 24, FSU 21 — Georgia Tech beat Florida State 24-21 (ESPN); combined 45 points, under the 55.5 total, so the over busts.

“[59:59] Noah Fifita, by the way. [1:00:01] I'll take a 41 ticket on Noah Fifita to win the Heisman day.”

Colorado's Travis Hunter won the 2024 Heisman Trophy on Dec 14, 2024; Noah Fifita did not win (NCAA.com).

“[1:03:44] Man, I'm having a real hard time not just auto going with Utah and not just auto going with Utah, but because of where they start in the AP preseason top 25. [1:03:53] picking Utah to not just win the conference, Jeremy Kahn, but to beat out the group of five [1:03:59] champs.”

Arizona State beat Iowa State 45-19 to win the 2024 Big 12 Championship Game; Utah did not win the Big 12 (Big 12 Conference official site).

“[2:52:41] and I bank on them doing it. [2:52:43] Over four and a half runs for Baltimore at plus 106. [2:52:47] that is going to be my other best bet of the day.”

Baltimore was shut out 6-0 by Houston on Aug 22, 2024, scoring 0 runs, under its 4.5 team total (ESPN box score). (Orioles: 0 runs)

“[8:59] They just weren't only a couple of years removed from the Super Bowl. [9:02] I don't think this team wins the division. [9:04] Again, I think people are getting suckered in to a Houston Texans win the division bet. [9:11] And I listen, I'm happy to ride the Colts with you. [9:14] I wouldn't be shocked if Trevor Lawrence in year four has a little something, something [9:18] extra for him with the Jags.”

10-7 — Houston went 10-7 and won the 2024 AFC South; Indianapolis finished 8-9 and did not win the division, so the Colts to win AFC South bet lost (ESPN final standings).

“[17:03] We've given you a couple already. [17:06] We've had Matt Lamarca on. [17:08] He was looking at Will Levis and his touchdown number. [17:12] I am already on Will Levis passing yards number. [17:16] Now it's bounced up and down a little bit a couple of times. [17:20] That number right now is at 3,465 and a half with a minus 105 to the over and a minus 115 to the under 3465 and a half.”

Will Levis passed for 2,091 yards in the 2024 regular season, below the 3,465.5 line, so the over lost (ESPN stats). (2,091 passing yards)

“[19:54] I don't even think he's going to get that. [19:56] I'm actually down on Alvin Kamara under 650 and a half at minus 105 is my pick.”

Alvin Kamara rushed for 950 yards in the 2024 regular season, over the 650.5 line, so the under bet lost (ESPN/Pro-Football-Reference stats). (Alvin Kamara 950 rushing yards)

“[22:55] I got I got one more that I really like. [22:57] And this one I will acknowledge to me is probably the riskiest rushing prop that I'm willing to drop a cup of dimes on here. [23:08] But Isiah Pacheco over 900 and a half yards.”

Isiah Pacheco rushed for 310 yards in the 2024 regular season, well below the 900.5 line (ESPN/Pro-Football-Reference stats). (Isiah Pacheco 310 rushing yards)

“[41:33] couple of folks saying that there are some books that you can find etn at 350 receiving yards [41:38] I like that number. I think he's a big part of it this year. I will give you another pick”

Travis Etienne Jr. recorded 292 receiving yards in the 2024 regular season, below the 350 line (ESPN stats). (Travis Etienne Jr. 292 receiving yards)

“[21:52] my long shot dark pick. I'm going to join you on Cam Rising, who has gone from, by the way, [21:57] 50 to 1 to 40 to 1. I'm going to join you on a long shot bet.”

Travis Hunter won the 2024 Heisman Trophy; Cam Rising did not win (ESPN).

“[40:38] they rotate courses, but Tony Finau at 28 to one. Eventually, this guy's going to win one. [40:44] All right. And it's a long shot because of Scotty Scheffler exists, the audacity. But I'm going to [40:50] go with Tony Finau at 28 to one in that spot.”

Keegan Bradley won the 2024 BMW Championship at 12-under; Tony Finau did not win (PGA Tour).

“[44:11] And then the best of all the best bets, [44:13] whoever's pitching against the Mariners, [44:16] bet the K prop. [44:17] Jack Flaherty over seven and a half strikeouts.”

LAD 8, SEA 4 — Jack Flaherty struck out 5 in 5.2 IP for the Dodgers against Seattle, below the 7.5 strikeout line (ESPN box score). (Jack Flaherty 5 K (5.2 IP))

“[1:07:43] Derrick Henry. So while I do not often vote repeat MVPs because it's very tough to do, [1:07:50] you're giving me Lamar at 15 to 1 am I taking him he's shorter odds than Jordan Love he's shorter [1:08:00] odds than Jalen Hurts get out of here with that man Lamar Jackson to repeat is a pick for me”

Josh Allen won the 2024 AP NFL MVP award over fellow finalist Lamar Jackson (Wikipedia: NFL Honors).

“[1:25:16] I am 100% with you. [1:25:18] I love that bet. [1:25:20] I'll tail that bet. [1:25:21] I'll make that bet now. [1:25:23] And while I am a bet a little, win a little on like a five-leg parlay when I come to results, [1:25:30] which I do too often, listen, I'm a small bettor anyway. [1:25:33] I've kept it real with the BetQL audience, Pat Boyle. [1:25:36] I'm like my most confident, comfortable bets. [1:25:39] Like that under game we bet last week was the biggest bet I made all week. [1:25:44] It was $25, all right? [1:25:47] I'm a little fish better. [1:25:48] I'm a nobody. [1:25:50] I do it as much for the love of the game as anything else. [1:25:53] I'll throw a max cap bet at the Pats to go 0-5 to start the year.”

New England beat Cincinnati 16-10 in Week 1 and went 1-4 over their first five games of 2024, not 0-5 (ESPN schedule).

“[2:03:36] touchdown total is too low. Right now, another plus money over for you, Pat Boyle. Chris Olave [2:03:44] over five and a half touchdowns, and you're catching that at plus 105 right now, all right?”

Chris Olave caught 1 receiving touchdown in the 2024 regular season, well under the 5.5 line (NFL.com). (Chris Olave: 1 receiving touchdown)

“[2:27:19] I've got mine. [2:27:20] I'm rolling with the Atlanta Falcons to win the South. [2:27:23] I think the addition I grabbed them before the addition of Judon and Simmons.”

Tampa Bay won the 2024 NFC South at 10-7; Atlanta finished second at 8-9 (ESPN standings).

“[2:41:12] I mean, I'm going to 100% going to ride with Jake Hassan on the Corbin Carroll bet. [2:41:15] I did it last night. [2:41:16] I did it the night before. [2:41:17] I feel real good about him going on maybe even a little bit of a hit streak here.”

ARI 9, MIA 6 — Corbin Carroll went 0-for-4 with 0 total bases as Arizona beat Miami 9-6 on Aug 19, 2024, missing the over 1.5 total bases (ESPN box score). (Corbin Carroll: 0 total bases)

“[2:57:09] They also saw him back on August 9th in that game. [2:57:14] 1K in that contest. [2:57:16] I'm going to bet them to go under the 4.5 today.”

HOU 5, BOS 4 — Tanner Houck recorded 8 strikeouts as Houston beat Boston 5-4 on Aug 19, 2024, well over the under 4.5 strikeouts line (ESPN box score). (Tanner Houck: 8 strikeouts)

“[2:52:46] Yeah, the only thing that I'm really jumping at is Cody Bradford over 4.5 Ks for the Rangers today. [2:52:52] But I'm not going gaga over anything, especially since we got such a thin slate this evening.”

MIN 3, TEX 2 — Cody Bradford struck out 2 (not 4.5+) as Twins beat Rangers 3-2; over busts. (Cody Bradford 2 strikeouts)

“[5:32] bit of pitching and now if they can just get that run differential to start edging up a little bit They going to be great On the flip side there the Astros I took a ticket preseason Pat Boyle on the Astros to miss the playoffs this year and they are sitting at 64 wins”

The Astros clinched the 2024 AL West title and a playoff berth, so the Astros-to-miss-the-playoffs bet busts (ESPN).

“[38:46] I like it. Great. Let's hand out a couple. I'm going to start with Ronel Blanco for the Houston [38:51] Astros under 17 and a half outs.”

Ronel Blanco threw 6 scoreless innings (18 outs) against the Rays, over the 17.5-outs under line (ESPN recap). (Ronel Blanco: 6 IP (18 outs))

“[39:38] season run. I think Blanco will go under in this spot because of that Houston's going to have to go to the back end pitching a little bit earlier Like I mentioned I do think Tampa Bay puts the ball into play So I going to go Astros raise over seven and a half in the same game at minus 115”

2-1 — Astros beat the Rays 2-1 in 10 innings; the combined 3 runs fell under the 7.5-run over line (ESPN box score).

“[40:12] I'm also going to go the under eight and a half runs. [40:15] You are getting it at barely plus money, [40:17] but plus money nonetheless at plus 102.”

2-9 — Blue Jays beat the Angels 9-2; the combined 11 runs went over the 8.5-run under line (ESPN box score).

“[41:31] And then I am going to go with the Dodgers over the Brewers today. [41:37] Because they're the Dodgers and they figured it out. [41:39] And that's literally my only reason.”

4-5 — Brewers beat the Dodgers 5-4 on August 14, 2024; Dodgers moneyline busts (ESPN box score).

“[12:55] Carolina Panthers. Now you want the smart play? The smart play is take Carolina plus four and a [13:01] half and you're getting them at minus 105 right now. Almost even money to take the four and a half”

NO 47, CAR 10 — Saints beat Panthers 47-10; Carolina lost by 37, well short of covering +4.5 (ESPN box score).

“[7:00] be another team that I am down on taking on a team that I am up on. Give me the Washington [7:06] Commanders plus three and a half at minus 110.”

TB 37, WSH 20 — Buccaneers beat Commanders 37-20; Washington lost by 17, well short of covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).

“[31:51] there's that max two losses in there they lose two Alabama's going to the playoffs and you're [31:56] giving me that bet at almost even money please and thank you please and thank you that's how”

Alabama, at 9-3, was left out of the final 12-team 2024 College Football Playoff bracket (NBC Sports).

“[2:22:41] Five-star, lock of the day, of the week, of the month, of the year. [2:22:47] Baltimore even money to take a preseason win.”

16-13 — Philadelphia beat Baltimore 16-13 on a last-second field goal in the preseason game, so the Ravens moneyline busts (ESPN box score).

“[2:26:04] I'm going to go under 17 and a half. And by the way, you're getting that at plus [2:26:07] 140.”

Zach Eflin threw 7 scoreless innings (21 outs) for Baltimore against Tampa Bay, well over the 17.5-outs line (ESPN box score). (Zach Eflin 7.0 IP (21 outs))

• Baltimore Orioles moneyline
• Justin Steele under 17.5 pitching outs

“you a couple of baseball picks here since we're rolling number one I'm doing this every time I told you this earlier Jeremy Kahn if there's a team sitting on two losses in a three-game series and they're trying to avoid the sweep. I'm going to take them every single time. Give me the Baltimore Orioles to win tonight, and I'm going to connect it with another bet. In fact, not only am I going to connect it, I'm going to parlay it. Not only am I going to parlay it, I'm going to parlay it with a plus money bet here, and I'm going to bump these odds up to 5-1. Give me the Baltimore Orioles to cover, scratch that, to win outright on the money line, and give me Justin Steele under 17 and a half outs. Why? My man just went complete game. Yeah, that's why. Yeah, it only took 95 pitches, which is a relatively normal amount of pitches for Justin Steele to get yoinked from a game. But he threw the Maddox, complete game, under 100 pitches, very impressive performance. Here's the reality. If I'm Craig Council, I'm still watching the pitch count. I'm still protecting him. The Chicago Cubs are alive, but they're only going to stay alive unless they either decide to trade Bellinger and Ann Hap and all these other cats that are on the block, or they protect the hell out of Justin Steele. So I would not be shocked if Justin Steele gets the hook a little bit early. The other way he gets the hook is if he gets chased from the game. The Orioles have slowed down a lot. They're not going to slow down tonight. The bats are going to come back tonight. The bats are going to get it right, get it tight tonight. I think Baltimore is going to knock the ball around the park a little bit. So I'm going to parlay the Baltimore Orioles on the money line and Justin Steele under 17 and a half outs in that one.”

CHC 8, BAL 0 — Chicago Cubs beat Baltimore 8-0 (Orioles moneyline leg lost) and Justin Steele pitched 7 innings (21 outs), over the 17.5-out line (leg lost); parlay lost (ESPN box score). (Steele 21 outs (7 IP))

“This one's very interesting. And I'm going to tell you right now, I kept preparing myself to make a buttload of money by betting against England every match because there's always that match when the pressure gets to its highest that Garrett Southgate and the three Lions just completely fall apart. And they have, as we learned earlier, if you make the peace sign, but turn it around backwards, that is a very special meaning to the English. And they have been making the peace sign and turning it around backwards at Rob Brown since the beginning UEFA Euro 24. But they're up against the buzzsaw, man. Spain is just playing next level. They've got 16 year olds out there hitting wonder goals in order to move on to the Euro final. Spain is even. money to win this game. The Brits are plus 255 on the money line. They are minus 179 at plus 0.5 right now to take it into the tie. Over under set at two and a half right now with a plus 150 to the over two and a half. I'm going to take the under. It's at minus 188, which I don't love. We'll talk more soccer when we come back.”

Spain 2, England 1 — Spain beat England 2-1 in the Euro 2024 final, three combined goals over the 2.5 total (ESPN match report).

“I did have France in this one, just on the money line. Had to pay a lot of juice to get them, but after what I saw out of Portugal and Slovenia in the last one, I really thought Kylian Mbappe and the boys, Not that they were going to make a cakewalk out of this one. I mean, the juice was only like minus 140, I think I got it at. And I got it right when the schedule got announced. But this is an interesting contest here. Portugal's still a very good team, but I thought an aged Ronaldo. This was going to be Kylian Mbappe's time to shine. Corner kick from Portugal turned away from France. I really thought this would be an Mbappe game.”

Portugal 0, France 0 (France won penalties 5-3) — Portugal and France finished scoreless (0-0) through regulation and extra time on July 5, 2024, with France advancing 5-3 on penalties, so the regulation moneyline lost (ESPN match report).

“Here is my question. Paul Skeens has the exact same 30-1 odds that Logan Webb has for the Giants, that Sonny Gray has for the Cardinals. He has better odds than the 40-1 odds that Aaron Nola has for the NL Cy Young. Right now, Zach Wheeler, 2-1 is your favorite. Chris Sale from Atlanta, who now leads the major leagues and wins with 11 after he was the only pitcher to beat the San Francisco Giants in that three-game set. glass now for LA is plus 550 ranger Suarez at six to one max freed eight to one is a Paul Skeen's 30 to one Cy Young flyer worth the risk for you I won be betting it just because I think there a lot of hurdles he has to get over and so many things that could go wrong and I don like being the coulda woulda shoulda guy I not a big futures bet When I find stuff that I like I will bet it But you know looking at skeins like rookie of the year I think he's definitely in on that. I just think it's going to be hard to leapfrog a lot of these guys. And we don't know, too. I mean, the one thing, if you are going to bet it, some of those guys might get traded to the American League. And what is that? That changes everything. You know, like what if the Cardinals start to fall out of it? Do they trade a Sonny Gray? Do they, you know, you can look at some of these arms and wonder if these teams would move them. But yeah, like it wouldn't shock me if he won. I just don't know that I'm going to throw money on it. Yeah, I got to tell you, man, I kind of want to take a ticket at 30 to 1. Like I agree there's a lot that could go wrong, which is why 30 to 1 to me, like why not? You know what I mean? Like it's 30 to 1, exactly. Like I will very regularly go out there and put out parlays that are like 50 to 1 and I know that they're not going to hit. It's just for, as the kids say, the lulls at night, right? Just to see what happens, just to see if I can pull off a miracle one night. So for me, throwing that number at Paul Skeens at 30 to 1, what's the harm? What's the harm? And the fact that my guy is 4-0, the fact that my guy is not taking L's, the fact that my guy, again, yes, I understand we're worried about injuries, And I absolutely buy into the thought that pitchers are throwing harder and putting more spin on the ball than ever before. And oh, by the way, at a point in time where pitchers are throwing harder and putting more spin on the ball than ever before. Baseball took the sticky stuff away, meaning they got a grip harder to throw that high RPM spin rate. I got no issue taking a guy who has made it nine games deep into his career and isn't slowing down, feels as comfortable as any rookie we've ever seen off the bump in his first couple of games. Not a ton of control issues. The one game he lost was two. Yes, I know the Braves don't look like the 23 Braves, but the Braves also went out to New York and took two out of the three out of the Yankees and look like the damn 27 Yankees when they did it. Like, I'm not worried about that one L. I got no issue with it at a 30 to one ticket right now. Am I optimistic? Sure. Cause I got a, I got a, I got a ticket for him at rookie of the year. And I do think that if a rookie of the year is going to go to a pitcher, it's also got to be a guy who's probably a Cy Young threat in the process. So why not double those two tickets up? Yeah. We were talking about Shota and Yamamoto”

Chris Sale won the 2024 NL Cy Young Award; Paul Skenes finished third in voting (Wikipedia). (Skenes: 3rd in NL Cy Young voting)

“I will give you one name that I'm intrigued by. and and and I don't know that I would take it if it was any shorter than this but a 25 to 1 Xavier Worthy in Kansas City is kind of interesting to me and I think he's interesting now I think he's interesting now because we're watching the whole Rasheed Rice situation continue to evolve and granted it has been a while since we got any Rasheed Rice news but when we get Rasheed Rice news the last couple times it's been like what are you doing dog like you were a breakout star for the Chiefs last year. Rasheed Rice is still going to be there, but he's got a lot of distractions. He's got the off-field drama. Xavier Worthy's the new Tyreek Hill in this offense right now. There are some questions I have about Xavier Worthy. I do not think that he is quite as talented at snapping routes, quite as talented at realizing deep coverages and adjusting to them as Tyreek is, but he's just as fast and he's just as dangerous. He's just as slippery when he gets into that backfield. And that is, that's it for Patrick Mahomes down the field. He's got Kelsey over the middle. He's got Rasheed Rice in the mid, and now he's got Xavier Worthy up top. And so my question is, if teams are going to start stepping up and trying to attack Patrick Mahomes to keep him from winning another NFL MVP award, and Xavier Worthy turns into an immediate Tyree Kill edition, taking a ticket out on him at 25 to 1 doesn't feel like the worst play in the world to me. Yeah, look, I love that pull and talking about him because when they got him, everybody was bitching at the draft. Like, how did you guys let them get him, you know, with the fastest receiver in the draft? They did add Hollywood Brown, though, too. So now they're going to have two smallish, quick guys that can catch the deep ball. Not that Xavier Worthy's small. He's just not, he's not a big wide receiver. He's not like 6'5 and jumping out the gym like a Keon Coleman. But he is supremely talented. and you got the best quarterback in the league maybe even when all said and done the best quarterback in football history throwing him the ball yeah I'd like that spot and I'd like to sprinkle a little something on that as well I think that's a good pull yeah I don't hate that”

Jayden Daniels won the 2024 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award, not Xavier Worthy (NFL.com). (Daniels won AP OROY)

“Patrick Mahomes, we talked a little bit about it earlier in the show. I'd like to circle back around to it because there is another name that I would like to throw into this one. And I will acknowledge that this one is likely a long shot. This is likely one that I think is going to get me some pushback, but I'm going to play it anyway. And I'm going to play it anyway. I'm going to play it anyway. It's Kirk Cousins for the MVP in Atlanta. Now, I know I'm betting on a 36-year-old. I know I'm betting on a 36-year-old that has a major surgery this past offseason. I know I'm betting on a 35-year-old, a 36-year-old that has a major surgery this offseason, but I'm also betting on one that before that injury last year was playing to an MVP caliber in Minnesota. And while he doesn't have the one guy like he did in Minnesota, I honestly think overall Atlanta's built a pretty good, underappreciated, underrated set of skill position talents there in the ATL. And I also think Kirk Cousins is going to get a lot of extra possessions because the Atlanta defense ain't that good. So he's going to be called upon and will have an opportunity to put extra numbers up on the board. And he's 35 to 1 on the MVP market. I don't know that the MVP gets as much sentimentality from the voters as some of the other awards do. But if there is any, and if Atlanta wins this division, if they hit the over win total and they get to say 12 wins, which in the NFC South, which I describe as a dumpster fire inside of a slightly larger dumpster fire this upcoming year. If Kirk Cousins wins that division, gets to 12, brings Atlanta to the playoffs, and does so by utilizing the skill position talent there. And oh, by the way, that Bijon Robinson kid's going to be a freaking star, I can tell already. It's not a thin limb I'm climbing out on there. If he has the year, I think is possible. Not definite, but it's possible. Kirk Cousins at 35-1 doesn't feel like a waste of money to me at all.”

Josh Allen won the 2024 AP NFL MVP award, not Kirk Cousins (NFL.com). (Allen won AP MVP)

“Let me start with the guys I would not take. I think anybody who takes Justin Herbert as an MVP pick, I'll just give you my Venmo. Just send me that money. I'll buy some very nice whiskey with that money. I'll save us both the trouble and cut out the middleman for you. Greg Roman's their offensive core. They're just going to run, run, run, and he'll set up his play-action pass. It's a very elementary offense that he runs in the passing game. It is. And Jim Harbaugh has already said he's not changing that. He's already said we're running the ball. We're going to run the ball a lot. which is fantastic after you sent your running back out of town for nothing in return. We can get to the Chargers another day. Lamar Jackson to me is always a threat. And by the way, I'll tell you why I actually do like Lamar Jackson at 12-1. There were two things that went against them last year. I really liked Gus last year. I thought the Gus bus was rolling for a hot minute there. But for some reason, in clutch spots, Baltimore stopped running the ball. And I understand you want to let Lamar do Lamar things. I get it. But Lamar does Lamar things better. when you got a running threat between the tackles to keep linebackers on the inside and stop them from going to the outside where Lamar does Lamar things. Who's playing running back for the Baltimore Ravens next year? Derek Dan Henry. Do me a favor. Don't put guys between the tackles when Derek Henry's getting the ball. Let me see how that goes for you. Derek Henry's a monster. We were playing list trivia earlier this week on the show. And if anybody in the background remembers exactly what the stat was, but it was like since 2015, only X amount of players have over so many touchdowns. Derrick Henry had the most touchdowns of the whole league in like a seven-year sentence. Let Derrick Henry run. Do me a favor and commit extra defenders to the outside to stop Lamar from getting the edge while Derrick Henry's back there, right? I don't think you can take that risk. I think you have got to cover up the box and take the risk Lamar beats you. And if teams take the risk Lamar beats you, Lamar will beat you, Jeremy Conn.”

Josh Allen won the 2024 AP NFL MVP award, not Lamar Jackson, who finished as runner-up (NFL.com). (Allen won AP MVP)

“because we got 90 seconds. I don't care that it's a quarterback award. I'll take a flyer on Christian McCaffrey at 51. My man is married. He is rich. He is happy. San Francisco's giving him the ball like all the time. He put together a touchdown streak that was incredible last year. No, I don't think it's going to hit, but at 50 to one for a guy that is arguably the best running back in the National Football League, I'm going to take the flyer. I get it. You know, like it just makes sense. He's probably the favorite to win offensive player of the year each year because of what he does. As you you made sense of like it's different now with the way they look at it. So that usually it just doesn't go to the same player. So I think that's a great play.”

Josh Allen won the 2024 AP NFL MVP award, not Christian McCaffrey (NFL.com). (Allen won AP MVP)

“And I'm down on Bama this year, quite frankly. Like, I would more so go under their 9.5 wins than I would go over. But Ole Miss, Rob Brown, 7-0, what am I missing on the Rebels? I mean, you're missing the acquisition of talent. uh juice wells antuan wells who comes over from south carolina is going to be one of the best receivers in the league assuming he can stay healthy and you pair him with jackson dart and i agree i think the whole jackson dart for heisman caliber hype is probably a little bit overdone i think he's going to be a very average maybe slightly above average sec quarterback i don't see him quarterbacking them to a national hotel to a conference championship um i'm actually quite the opposite on Alabama. You know, we talked about your concept of narrative bets earlier, PJ. And again, I'm all on board with the concept of a narrative bet. I think it's great. Sometimes I'm going to fade the crap out of a narrative bet and I'm going to fade Alabama as a narrative bet here. I'm looking at the schedule. There's one team on this schedule that I consider a loss, Georgia. You play Georgia in the regular season. I can say, and honestly, let's not even consider that an L because remember that was an L going into the SEC championship game last year and then Bama ended up winning that it screwed Florida State but hey they got the job done uh I'll consider Georgia now but where's the other L uh you know they're not beating Tennessee they're not beating Tennessee Knoxville they're not doing I'm telling you they're not winning that game I like Tennessee here's my thing man I absolutely believe you've got a Heisman contender at Alabama at the quarterback position. I absolutely believe that you're going to continue to have a run game. The narrative for me on this one is, oh, well, Kalen DeBoer's coming in, he's a new head coach, and new head coaches take some time. I don't disagree, but I think that narrative is going to slow down dramatically as the transfer portal era continues, right? Like, again, and Deion kind of tipped me in on this. It used to be the thought in college football, PJ, was new coach gets three years, right? It gets three years to cycle out the last guy's guys and to cycle in the new guy's guys. It's not really like that anymore. Kalen DeBoer brought how many transfer guys with him down from Washington to come play at the University of Alabama? Now, are they Alabama quality guys? We'll find out. But what they are are guys who know Kalen DeBoer and know his system and know the way he likes things run and can kind of act as player voices for the rest of the guys, the Alabama holdovers that are there because they want to have that Crimson A on the side of the hat. Man, I'm listening. Like, okay, let's say you're right, and they're not beating Tennessee at home. Fine. Western Kentucky, USF, Wisconsin, Vandy, South Carolina, Mizzou, LSU, Mercer, Oklahoma, and Auburn. Which team out of that do you really like to beat Alabama? It ain't South Carolina. It ain't Mizzou. It ain't Oklahoma. It ain't, sorry, love you, respect you, Auburn, but it ain't Auburn. There's only one other game you might lose, which is LSU. That's only because it's at LSU and only because you know that's going to be a night game and Death Valley is going to be absolutely ripping. But here's the thing. I don't trust Brian Kelly at LSU at all. Not at all do I trust Brian Kelly at LSU. So I'm actually betting the over on Alabama. I don't think there is a significant drop off this year. Bama did lose a couple of guys to the portal for sure. Florida State was a beneficiary to that. I think they got three starting caliber players out of Alabama, but they brought some guys in. I do think PJ that Alabama is going to start looking more like an average very good SEC team than the dynastic Alabama teams of days gone by But I 100 betting the over at plus money for the Crimson Tide”

Alabama went 9-3 in the 2024 regular season (9 wins), below the 9.5-win line (ESPN schedule/results). (Alabama: 9 regular-season wins)

“And I'm going to wrap it up by, uh, by taking the under in the Diamondbacks Dodgers game. You got a couple of Dodgers batters that have slowed up just a little bit on the flip side. Zach Gallin is figuring out how to be Zach Gallin again. I like the under eight and a half at minus 110 in baseball tonight.”

Diamondbacks 9, Dodgers 3 — Arizona beat Los Angeles 9-3 on July 4, 2024; combined 12 runs, under 8.5 busts (ESPN box score).

“Rob Brown, what about yourself? What do you like tonight? I'll give you a handful that I really like. First off, I didn't do it last night. I'm not going to make that same mistake again today. It's a day. Give me Aaron Judge over one and a half total bases today at minus 120 up against Andrew Abbott. I think this is almost a layup at this point. I'm going to go to the Padres at the Rangers and Jon Gray on the bump over 15 and a half outs.”

Aaron Judge went 0-for-3 with a walk against Cincinnati, recording 0 total bases, below the 1.5 line. (Aaron Judge: 0 total bases)

“I'm going to go to the Padres at the Rangers and Jon Gray on the bump over 15 and a half outs. His outs recorded prop is way down than where it has been. Like you're not often going to get a starter of any ilk. That's got a number at 15 and a half, 14 and a half. I'm going to take it while I got it.”

Jon Gray was pulled after 4.0 innings (12 outs) against San Diego, below the 15.5-outs line. (Jon Gray: 4.0 IP, 12 outs)

“Give me Zack Wheeler and the Phillies on the run line at plus 145. And I'm going to go against my guy Shota Imanaga under 17 and a half outs at plus 135. He is going to get smacked around the yard tonight. I hate the Philadelphia Phillies, but I'll take money if they want to give it to me, PJ.”

Shota Imanaga pitched 6.0 innings (18 outs) against Philadelphia, above the under-17.5-outs line. (Shota Imanaga: 6.0 IP, 18 outs)

“bad. I mean, you're saying until the Astros are literally dead, the Astros are not dead. And I hate that. I agree, despite the fact that I took out a preseason ticket for the Astros to miss the playoffs. And then I took a nap and woke up and they were plus 500. Again, I hate baseball. Sometimes Colby, I, I really, really do. Any surprises in the all-star game when we get the”

The Astros clinched their fourth straight AL West title and reached the 2024 playoffs, so the miss-the-playoffs bet lost (MLB.com official). (Astros clinched 2024 AL West title, made playoffs)

“Venezuela's winning this game. Listen, I got a lot of respect for what Jesse March and Canada have done getting out of that group. We undershot our expectations. I think they overshot their goals. I got a ton of respect for what Canada has done. But Venezuela's got six goals in three matches. They are the second best offense, statistically speaking, in Copa America. On the other side, Canada has conceded a pair of goals in their last three. Canada is 11th, I think, out of every team in Copa with one goal. They got through the group. And again, good on. Playing a good defensive back game can win you football matches, there's no doubt. But they scored a goal through three games, and now it is elimination. Now teams are throwing everything they got at you. Venezuela is winning this goal, is winning this game, pardon me. And on top of that, I got to tell you, this might be a game I consider taking the over two and a half on, which is at plus 130 right now. And honestly, I think Venezuela's scoring all three. Because at some point, when Venezuela goes up one early, and I think they will, probably like a 15, 20-minute goal into the game, when Venezuela grows up early, then what happens? Canada's got to come out of the shell. They've got to play forward. They've got to try to get it back. They can't hang and play for draws like they did in the group stage. I think they will eventually have to come out of the shell, and when they do, Venezuela will find a couple of more. I'm not overly confident in it, but I might go over the two and a half in this one. I am most certainly betting Venezuela to win this contest, and you're giving me Venezuela at plus money? Yeah, that's free money. Yeah, I mean, you are getting plus 160 on Venezuela.”

1-1 — Venezuela and Canada finished regulation tied 1-1 in their Copa America 2024 quarterfinal (Canada then won 4-3 on penalties), so Venezuela did not win in regulation (ESPN match report).

“Rob, do you like that plus 230 with Portugal? Would you take a little stab with that? I am. I am right now. I'm looking at it on BetMGM and it's up to plus 250 now. I mean, You got seven minutes left to play. But Portugal, the back line has been very good for Slovenia. But Portugal has been pouring guys forward and creating opportunities here. And it just feels like this is one of those games It may or may not be Ronaldo but it just feels like this is one of those games where soccer going to soccer and an entire nation going to have its heart broken in one swift kick And you're giving me Portugal at almost three to one. Yeah, I know it's only seven minutes left of football, but it feels like there's a vibe right now that I'm going to, I'm going to, I'm going to take, it's going to be a little bit like a little one unit bet just for the lulls, but I'll take Portugal to get a heartbreaker here. Oh man, obviously we had a heartbreaker”

0-0 — Portugal and Slovenia finished 0-0 after 90 minutes and extra time, with Portugal advancing 3-0 in the penalty shootout; the bet required Portugal to win in regulation, which did not happen (ESPN).

“Any bets for you tonight between the United States and Uruguay. Yeah, I'm going to go chalky on the first one, and I'm going to take my top two goal scores, both to get one and this one. Give me Darman Nunez to get one. That guy has had 12 shots, I think 12 shots on target through two game and buried a couple of them. He is the reason that this team is where they are. I think you're catching him at five to one right now. Let me make sure that number is still good. Yeah, catching him five to one, excuse me, two to one is an anytime goal score five to one as the first goal score. I'm going to take a flyer on both of those numbers and I'll do the same with Flo Balligan. He's plus 230 as an anytime goal score. So I'll lean on him as well as I'm not going to touch the result of this game because here's the one”

0-1 — Uruguay beat the United States 1-0 in Copa America group play; Darwin Núñez did not score, the lone goal came from Mathias Olivera. (Darwin Núñez: 0 goals)

“I think you're catching him at five to one right now.”

0-1 — Uruguay's Mathias Olivera scored the only goal (66') in a 1-0 win over the United States; Darwin Núñez was not the first goalscorer. (First goalscorer: Mathias Olivera (66'))

“He's plus 230 as an anytime goal score.”

0-1 — Folarin Balogun did not score as Uruguay beat the United States 1-0; the only goal was scored by Mathias Olivera. (Folarin Balogun: 0 goals)

“Number one, the Houston Astros to miss the playoffs.”

The Houston Astros clinched the 2024 AL West and made the playoffs (swept by Detroit in the Wild Card round), so the bet on Houston to miss the playoffs lost. (Astros: 2024 AL West champions and playoff qualifier)

“First off, I'm going to give you one that is 100% a fade the public kind of line. All right. The over-under in this game is set at five and a half. It's been over the last two games. And it's been over because Edmonton put up eight in a game. And then they turned around and did it again. The Oilers hold a 16-8 advantage over Florida over the last three games. With each one of them going over six and a half goals at the minimum. But Sergey Bobrovsky is still really good at hockey. Stuart Skinner is still really good at hockey. And while I know you're going to get a lot of hectic offense in this game, because Edmonton doesn't want to lose the cup on home ice. They don't want to see Florida lifting the cup in Canada, right? They want to at least force this thing back down to summarize Florida. If they're going to lose it, they are going to be hectic. But I think the goalkeepers have both had a couple of games that they like to slow it down, right? uh sue skinner gave up a couple of goals to florida the other night that made game five a lot tighter than it needed to be and i'll tell you one more thing i don't know about you i'm a big fade the public guy there's a number i look for and it's 85 percent anytime that 85 percent or more of the money or the tickets from the public are coming in on a number sean ball i I run, Sean Bell, I run to the other side. I sprint to the other side. I can't – I Usain Bolt. I Michael Phelps. I Katie Ledecky to the other side if I see that 85 number. How about this? According to the Beck QL report – Those are three more sports that I'm going to watch over college baseball. I mean, listen, I can't blame you on that. Katie Ledecky is the most dominant active athlete in sports right now. We can talk some trials if we want. 90% of the money is coming in on the over. 90% of the money is coming in over five and a half goals tonight. I don't know about you, big dog. I see a 90%. Vegas ain't in the mood to give away free money, all right? They know something. They know something's happening tonight. I'm going to go with the under in this game, and I might be the only one. I might be the only one, but I'm going to go with the under in this game. The Sharps are turning in 90% of the money. The public is turning in 90% of the money all on the over. And while I know the over is hit in two in a row, it did not hit in the first two. And I think Florida has got to get back to what they were doing early. And I think they know that, right? Like what they did to get a 3-0 lead is not what they did in games four and five. I think they get back to protecting Sergei Bobrovsky. I think they get back to playing on the four check.”

Oilers 5, Panthers 1 — Edmonton beat Florida 5-1 in Game 6, a combined 6 goals, over the total of 5.5.

“I will give you another one. Give me Evan Rodrigues to score a point at plus 139. This dude has been the best player for Florida. It has not been Matthew Kachuk. It has not been Carter Verhege. It has been Evan Rodrigues, who has been wildly consistent, picked up a goal and an assist in game five. It was the fourth time in five games that he hit the score sheet. He will do it again tonight because they will need him to. Edmonton is going to do what they've been doing. They are going to go all out on stopping Matthew Kachuk from being that guy. I don't think they're going to be able to do it here. Give me Evan Rodrigues to score a point on this evening. I'm looking at the chat.”

Oilers 5, Panthers 1 — Evan Rodrigues recorded no goals or assists in Game 6 (Oilers won 5-1), so the point prop lost. (Evan Rodrigues: 0 points)

“I've given you my hockey pick. So I'll get away from that. Let's do a little baseball game is just about to get underway, but give me Giancarlo Stanton over one and a half strikeouts at plus one 10 tonight. Listen, I love Stanton. I love what the Yankees are doing right now, but Chris sale in his last two starts, seven K's and 10 K's working a K rate. That is in the top 10% of all of baseball. Stanton, good as he's been in pressure spots, leads the Yankees in K-rate at this point. Chris Sale also striking out lefties at a higher rate. Stanton is going to be over-aggressive. I will also take the Yankees on the money line tonight at minus 116, which seems like there's way less juice than there should be with Rodon on the bump. But I'll go Stanton over one and a half Ks. I will go Chris Sale over six and a half total Ks. And I'll take the Yankees on the money line.”

ATL 8, NYY 1 — Giancarlo Stanton struck out once against Chris Sale as the Braves beat the Yankees 8-1, missing his over 1.5 strikeouts prop. (Giancarlo Stanton: 1 strikeout)

“I've given you my hockey pick. So I'll get away from that. Let's do a little baseball game is just about to get underway, but give me Giancarlo Stanton over one and a half strikeouts at plus one 10 tonight. Listen, I love Stanton. I love what the Yankees are doing right now, but Chris sale in his last two starts, seven K's and 10 K's working a K rate. That is in the top 10% of all of baseball. Stanton, good as he's been in pressure spots, leads the Yankees in K-rate at this point. Chris Sale also striking out lefties at a higher rate. Stanton is going to be over-aggressive. I will also take the Yankees on the money line tonight at minus 116, which seems like there's way less juice than there should be with Rodon on the bump. But I'll go Stanton over one and a half Ks. I will go Chris Sale over six and a half total Ks. And I'll take the Yankees on the money line.”

ATL 8, NYY 1 — The Braves beat the Yankees 8-1, so the Yankees moneyline lost.

“picking him to go wire to wire might not be the worst call at eight to one”

Scheffler did not lead the 2024 Masters wire-to-wire: Bryson DeChambeau led after round 1 with 65 (-7) while Scheffler shot 66 (-6), one back, before Scheffler won outright at -11 (277) (Wikipedia, citing round-by-round scoring). (Round 1 leader: DeChambeau 65 (-7); Scheffler 66 (-6); final winner: Scheffler -11 (277))

“I'll go ahead and go four and a half to one that somebody's going to roll one in”

No hole-in-one occurred during the four competitive rounds of the 2024 Masters; the five aces that week (Straka, List, Woodland, Hovland, Glover) were all in the non-competitive Wednesday Par 3 Contest (Wikipedia).

“I'm also going to roll with Hideki Matsuyama at 18-1”

Hideki Matsuyama did not win the 2024 Masters; he finished T38 at +7 (295) (ESPN final leaderboard). (Matsuyama: T38, +7 (295))

“All Brooks Koepka does is play well in majors, and you're giving me 20-1 odds on that young man. I like that one as well”

Brooks Koepka did not win the 2024 Masters; he finished T45 at +9 (297) (ESPN final leaderboard). (Koepka: T45, +9 (297))

“Why not throw a little scratch at country boy himself, Bubba Watson”

Bubba Watson did not win the 2024 Masters; he missed the cut with a 36-hole total of 154, +10 (ESPN final leaderboard). (Watson: missed cut, 154 (+10))

“I'm going to go with under eight total runs in Chicago versus the San Diego Padres”

10-2 — The Padres beat the Cubs 10-2 on 2024-04-10, a combined 12 runs, over the under 8 total (ESPN box score).

“taking the Red Sox at the house on the money line at minus 109”

7-5 — The Orioles beat the Red Sox 7-5 on 2024-04-10, so the Red Sox moneyline lost (ESPN box score).

“Give me one and a half bags on Jackson Holliday in night one”

Jackson Holliday went 0-for-4 with 0 total bases in his MLB debut on 2024-04-10 at Boston, under the 1.5 total bases line (ESPN box score). (Jackson Holliday: 0-for-4, 0 total bases)

“Kyrie Irving over four and a half assists tonight against Dallas”

111-92 — Kyrie Irving recorded 4 assists in the Mavericks' 111-92 win over the Heat on 2024-04-10, under the 4.5 line (ESPN box score). (Kyrie Irving: 4 assists)

“Mikal Bridges over 16 and a half points tonight”

106-102 — Mikal Bridges scored 11 points in the Nets' 106-102 win over the Raptors on 2024-04-10, under the 16.5 line (ESPN box score). (Mikal Bridges: 11 points)

“I'm going to take the New York Yankees at the house over the Florida Marlins on the red line, excuse me, on the run line at minus one and a half, and you're getting plus money, a plus 110”

NYY 3, MIA 2 — Yankees beat the Marlins 3-2 (margin of 1), not covering the -1.5 run line (ESPN box score).

“I'm also going to go Adam Fox over 0.5 assists”

NYI 4, NYR 2 — Adam Fox scored a power-play goal but recorded 0 assists as the Islanders beat the Rangers 4-2 (ESPN box score). (1 goal, 0 assists)

“Give me Phoenix minus 3.5 at the house”

LAC 105, PHX 92 — Clippers beat the Suns 105-92; Phoenix lost outright, so the -3.5 spread busts (ESPN final score).

“I grabbed him when the initial line dropped at 18 to one”

Scottie Scheffler won the 2024 Masters at -11; Xander Schauffele finished T8 at -1 (287), not the winner (ESPN final leaderboard). (T8, -1 (287))

“I also got him at about three to one to have a top five finish”

Xander Schauffele finished T8 at -1 (287) at the 2024 Masters, missing the top-5 finish line (ESPN final leaderboard). (T8, -1 (287))

“Give me the Dolphins over nine and a half. And that's also plus money at plus 120”

8-9 — Miami Dolphins finished the 2024 NFL regular season 8-9, under 9.5 wins (ESPN).

“I'm going to go Buffalo under 10 and a half at minus 120 on the board of BetMGM right now”

13-4 — Buffalo Bills finished the 2024 NFL regular season 13-4, well over 10.5 wins (ESPN).

“I threw scratch at the Braves to win the division.”

The Atlanta Braves finished 89-73, second in the NL East behind the Philadelphia Phillies (95-67), who won the division (MLB.com final standings).

“I threw scratch at the Orioles to win the AL East.”

The Baltimore Orioles finished 91-71, second in the AL East behind the New York Yankees (94-68), who won the division (MLB.com final standings).

“Over in the AL Central, I threw scratch at the Twins to win that division.”

The Minnesota Twins finished 82-80, well behind the Cleveland Guardians (92-69), who won the 2024 AL Central (MLB.com final standings).

“I am going with the Rangers to repeat in that division.”

The Texas Rangers finished 78-84, well behind the Houston Astros (88-73), who won the 2024 AL West (MLB.com final standings).

“Shohei Otani is going Yad tonight.”

Shohei Ohtani went 0-for-3 with a walk and a strikeout, no home run, in the Dodgers' 5-4 win over the Giants on 4/2/2024; Mookie Betts homered for LA, per ESPN box score. (0-3, 1 BB, 1 K, 0 HR)

“Max Homa, Billy Horschel are the two guys that I'm playing in this tournament right now. Billy Horschel getting a thirty five to one. And I absolutely love it.”

Billy Horschel did not win the 2024 Valero Texas Open; Akshay Bhatia won at -20 in a playoff over Denny McCarthy, per the ESPN leaderboard.

“I'm also going to take him. You can get him at plus 170 for a top 20 finish right now.”

Billy Horschel missed the cut at the 2024 Valero Texas Open (75-73, +4), finishing outside the top 20, per the ESPN leaderboard. (Missed cut (+4))

“25 to 1 for Homer, 35 to 1 for Billy Horschel.”

Max Homa did not win the 2024 Valero Texas Open; Akshay Bhatia won at -20 in a playoff over Denny McCarthy, per the ESPN leaderboard.

“You can get them both anywhere from plus 140 to plus 180 to get inside of the top 20. I think both of those are great picks for a top 20 finish.”

Max Homa finished tied for 25th (-4, 68-74-72-70) at the 2024 Valero Texas Open, outside the top 20, per the ESPN leaderboard. (T25 (-4))

“I'm also going to ride with the Caps plus one and a half against the Sabres”

BUF 6, WSH 2 — Sabres beat Capitals 6-2 on 4/2/2024; Washington's margin of -4 busts the +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).

“and under four and a half strikeouts.”

LAA 3, MIA 1 — Tyler Anderson struck out 5 over 7 scoreless innings in the Angels' 3-1 win over the Marlins on 4/2/2024, busting the under 4.5-strikeout line (ESPN box score). (Tyler Anderson: 5 K)

“Give me the Marlins on the run line over the Angels tonight.”

LAA 3, MIA 1 — Marlins lost 1-3 to the Angels on 4/2/2024, so Miami's -1.5 run line busts outright (ESPN box score).

“I've also got a ticket out on him to lead MLB and K's this year.”

Tigers ace Tarik Skubal led MLB with 228 strikeouts in 2024 (ESPN pitching leaders); Spencer Strider did not lead MLB in strikeouts. (Tarik Skubal 228 strikeouts)

“I'm going to start tonight with the Orlando Magic at home, laying three and a half against the Golden State Warriors.”

101-93 — Warriors beat the Magic 101-93 (ESPN box score); Magic lost outright, failing to cover -3.5.

“I'm going with the Clippers minus five and a half in this one.”

108-107 — Clippers beat the 76ers 108-107 (ESPN box score); Clippers won by only 1, failing to cover -5.5.

“The lock of the week of the month of the year of the decade of the century is Braves over 101.5.”

89-73 — The Atlanta Braves finished the 2024 regular season 89-73, well under the 101.5-win total (MLB.com standings).

“I'm still betting the Cubs here.”

The Milwaukee Brewers clinched the 2024 NL Central on September 18, 2024; the Chicago Cubs did not win the division (ESPN).

“I'm taking a future on Iowa and LSU.”

South Carolina 87, Iowa 75 — South Carolina defeated Iowa 87-75 in the 2024 NCAA women's championship game on April 7, 2024, so Iowa did not win the title (ESPN box score).

“I'm taking a future on Iowa and LSU.”

Iowa 94, LSU 87 — LSU was eliminated by Iowa 94-87 in the Elite Eight on April 1, 2024 and never reached the championship game, so LSU did not win the 2024 women's title (ESPN box score).

“I'm going to stick with my pick of the Baltimore Orioles to win the AL East.”

The New York Yankees won the 2024 AL East with a 94-68 record (MLB.com official standings); the Baltimore Orioles finished second and did not win the division.

“I've already got a future out on Juan Soto to win the AL MVP.”

Aaron Judge was unanimously named the 2024 American League MVP (MLB.com); Juan Soto did not win the award. (AL MVP: Aaron Judge (unanimous))

“Julio Rodriguez is the other guy I'd pick.”

Aaron Judge won the 2024 AL MVP award unanimously (announced Nov 21, 2024); Julio Rodriguez did not win. (AL MVP: Aaron Judge)

“Corbin Burnes is my pick for the AL Cy Young this year.”

Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers) won the 2024 AL Cy Young Award unanimously; Corbin Burnes did not win. (AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal)

“I got to look Jackson Holliday at four and a half to one”

Luis Gil (New York Yankees) won the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year award over runner-up Colton Cowser; Jackson Holliday did not win. (AL Rookie of the Year: Luis Gil)

“I'm going to have two bets, both of them at 10 to 1. Scott Service in Seattle, Brandon Hyde in Baltimore.”

Stephen Vogt (Cleveland Guardians) won the 2024 AL Manager of the Year award, announced Nov 19, 2024; Scott Servais did not win. (AL Manager of the Year: Stephen Vogt)

“I'm going to have two bets, both of them at 10 to 1. Scott Service in Seattle, Brandon Hyde in Baltimore.”

Stephen Vogt (Cleveland Guardians) won the 2024 AL Manager of the Year award, announced Nov 19, 2024; Brandon Hyde did not win. (AL Manager of the Year: Stephen Vogt)

“And if you want a line bet, I'm going to go FAU, but I'm going to keep it to the money line and give a little juice back”

NU 77, FAU 65 — Northwestern beat Florida Atlantic 77-65 in overtime; FAU moneyline busts (ESPN).

“I will go San Diego State. I will go, I think that line I saw it at minus 7.5, and I'm happy to take the cover there.”

SDSU 69, UAB 65 — San Diego State beat UAB 69-65, a 4-point margin; falls short of the -7.5 spread (ESPN).

“I'm taking BYU on the money line and BYU to move on.”

DUQ 71, BYU 67 — Duquesne upset BYU 71-67; BYU moneyline busts (ESPN).

“I really like Drake. Not only do I like Drake, I'm actually going Drake on the money line to win this game.”

WSU 66, DRKE 61 — Washington State beat Drake 66-61; Drake moneyline busts (ESPN).

“I'm going to go Kentucky to cover this thing up. I'm going to go Kentucky minus, I think it was 13 and a half left. Then I looked, I'm going to look at the over of 162 and a half. And I'll give you another prop bet. This is one of my favorites. I love betting guys to knock down three balls. Reed Sheppard has hit three three-pointers in his last 10 games in a row. Kentucky is hitting threes at like a 50% clip in the last 10. It is ridiculous, and Reed Sheppard leads that charge. Reed Sheppard's number also at two and a half threes, and you're getting it at plus 136. That, to me, feels as good as the last one. So I actually like that prop more than I like Kentucky to cover. but I'll go Kentucky to cover the 13 and a half. I'll take the over and I'll take the Reed Sheppard prop in this one.”

OAK 80, UK 76 — Oakland upset Kentucky 80-76; Kentucky lost outright, well short of covering -13.5 (ESPN).

“I'm going to go Kentucky to cover this thing up. I'm going to go Kentucky minus, I think it was 13 and a half left. Then I looked, I'm going to look at the over of 162 and a half. And I'll give you another prop bet. This is one of my favorites. I love betting guys to knock down three balls. Reed Sheppard has hit three three-pointers in his last 10 games in a row. Kentucky is hitting threes at like a 50% clip in the last 10. It is ridiculous, and Reed Sheppard leads that charge. Reed Sheppard's number also at two and a half threes, and you're getting it at plus 136. That, to me, feels as good as the last one. So I actually like that prop more than I like Kentucky to cover. but I'll go Kentucky to cover the 13 and a half. I'll take the over and I'll take the Reed Sheppard prop in this one.”

OAK 80, UK 76 — Oakland beat Kentucky 80-76, a combined 156 points; falls short of the over 162.5 total (ESPN).

“I'm going to go Kentucky to cover this thing up. I'm going to go Kentucky minus, I think it was 13 and a half left. Then I looked, I'm going to look at the over of 162 and a half. And I'll give you another prop bet. This is one of my favorites. I love betting guys to knock down three balls. Reed Sheppard has hit three three-pointers in his last 10 games in a row. Kentucky is hitting threes at like a 50% clip in the last 10. It is ridiculous, and Reed Sheppard leads that charge. Reed Sheppard's number also at two and a half threes, and you're getting it at plus 136. That, to me, feels as good as the last one. So I actually like that prop more than I like Kentucky to cover. but I'll go Kentucky to cover the 13 and a half. I'll take the over and I'll take the Reed Sheppard prop in this one.”

Reed Sheppard went 1-for-3 on three-pointers for Kentucky in the Oakland loss, under the 2.5 line (ESPN box score). (Reed Sheppard 1-3 3PT (3 pts))

“I like the under in this game, which is only at like 133.5.”

UNC 90, WAG 62 — North Carolina routed Wagner 90-62, a combined 152 points; over the under 133.5 total, so the under busts (ESPN).

“Colorado State on the money line. Give me that plus, plus, plus money for Colorado State.”

TEX 56, CSU 44 — Texas beat Colorado State 56-44; Colorado State moneyline loses (ESPN).

“I lean a slight edge to New Orleans. In fact last I saw in fact I picked them up about two and a half months ago at like plus 250 to win that division. I want to say they're at like plus 125. And I would still take them there”

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the 2023 NFC South at 9-8, clinching with a Week 18 win over Carolina; New Orleans did not win the division (Buccaneers.com). (NFC South champion: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8))

“So I kind of like the Aggies in that game minus seven and a half. I think that they can win that game by double digits.”

UMass 41, New Mexico State 30 — UMass beat New Mexico State 41-30 on Aug 26, 2023; the Aggies lost outright, so New Mexico State -7.5 busts (ESPN box score).

“I gave my Power Five Conference champions for the entire season. And I am going dark course here. I'm going with LSU to win the Southeastern Conference this year.”

27-24 — Alabama beat Georgia 27-24 on Dec 2, 2023 to win the 2023 SEC Championship; LSU did not win the conference (ESPN box score).

“Jared Burst defensive player of the year go ahead and lock that up while you can get it”

NC State's Payton Wilson won the 2023 ACC Defensive Player of the Year award (and the national Chuck Bednarik Award); Jared Verse did not win it (theacc.com).

“I don't know that I'd call them a long shot, but North Carolina, come on and raise up.”

16-6 — Florida State beat Louisville 16-6 on Dec 2, 2023 to win the ACC Championship; North Carolina did not win the conference (ESPN).