Guest · 49-49-2 on settled picks
| League | spread | total | moneyline | prop | futures | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 17-18-8% | 18-12+14% | 6-11-34% | 6-5+3% | 1-1 | 48-47-4% |
“I played Ottawa plus two and a half games at minus 110 this morning. I'm going to play Ottawa series as well today. Got to be in the range of plus 450. I think the Senators were very unlucky not to win one game in Carolina.”
CAR 4, OTT 0 — Hurricanes swept the Senators 4-0 in the first round, so Ottawa's +2.5 games series line lost (NHL.com).
“I played some over on the longest field goal in this game. I played over 48 and a half. They're still 49 and a half.”
The longest field goal made in Super Bowl LX was Jason Myers' 41-yarder; under 48.5 (ESPN box score). (Longest made field goal: 41 yards)
“I like punts over in this game, whether you want to play that as a total of like seven and a half across market or play each team individually at their prices.”
Seattle punted 7 times and New England punted 8 times in Super Bowl LX (15 combined punts); over 7.5 covers (ESPN box score). (Total punts: 15)
“I kind of like New England punts over three and a half. It's heavily juiced, like minus 150. I like that a decent amount in this game.”
New England punted 8 times in Super Bowl LX; over 3.5 covers (ESPN box score). (New England punts: 8)
“Fourth down conversion, will there be one? I played no in this market.”
Neither team converted (or attempted) a fourth down in Super Bowl LX, both finishing 0/0; 'no successful conversion' wins (ESPN team stats). (Fourth-down conversions: 0)
“Will the New England Patriots reach midfield on their opening drive? I bet no at plus money. I like that quite a bit.”
New England's opening drive of Super Bowl LX advanced to the Seattle 44-yard line before punting, crossing midfield; the 'not to reach midfield' selection busts (ESPN play-by-play). (New England opening drive reached the Seattle 44-yard line)
“There's just not enough separating these two teams to warrant this price, so I like Carolina getting three.”
CAR 23, TB 20 — Carolina beat Tampa Bay 23-20; the Panthers' outright 3-point win plus the 3 points gives a 6-point cover on +3 (ESPN).
“I really like the over 46 and a half here”
JAX 34, DEN 20 — Jacksonville beat Denver 34-20, a combined 54 points, clearing the 46.5 total (ESPN).
“I make Carolina minus 104 on the money line. You can find plus 130 in market right now. Give me the Saints.”
20-17 — Saints beat Panthers 20-17; New Orleans moneyline cashes. (ESPN box score)
“yeah I would say six is very clearly a buy point for me um there were some sixes in market that I bet earlier”
16-13 — Chargers beat Chiefs 16-13; Los Angeles covers +6. (ESPN box score)
“I played over at 49 and a half 50 is fine I made this north of 51”
DET 34, NYG 27 — The Lions beat the Giants 34-27 in overtime; the combined 61 points cleared the 49.5 total (ESPN).
“I like the under in this game. It's got to be over 41. 41 and a half is the cutoff.”
GB 23, MIN 6 — The Packers beat the Vikings 23-6; the combined 29 points stayed under the 41.5 total (ESPN).
“Seahawks 13 at the Titans, 40 and a half the total. Lay it with the Seahawks.”
SEA 30, TEN 24 — The Seahawks beat the Titans 30-24, winning by only 6, short of the -13 spread (ESPN).
“i bet a lot of dallas overs this year but this is one where i came back on the under at 50 and a half”
33-16 — Cowboys beat the Raiders 33-16, a combined 49 points, under the 50.5 total (ESPN box score).
“So I will use our famous hashtag of wrong team favored here, Nick, because the wrong team is favored in this game. Should be Houston favored. I like the Texans.”
HOU 36, JAX 29 — Texans beat the Jaguars 36-29, winning outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“ultimately i think the dolphins the offense is good enough to keep them in this game so i'll take the nine and a half points”
MIA 30, BUF 13 — Dolphins beat the Bills 30-13, and Miami's outright win covers the +9.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“At the six and a half, I have no problem with betting Seattle.”
SEA 44, ARI 22 — Seahawks won 44-22 over the Cardinals, covering the -6.5 spread by 15.5 points (ESPN box score).
“we're taking tonight thursday night football bo nicks anytime touchdown plus 350”
DEN 10, LV 7 — Bo Nix threw a touchdown pass but did not score one himself in the Broncos' 10-7 win over the Raiders (ESPN recap).
“I actually took out some Patriots AFC East futures this week as well. I think they're very live there.”
New England finished the 2025 season 14-3 and won the AFC East.
“I played over in this game and listen, full disclosure, I played this at a very good number, 46 and a half.”
34-24 — 49ers beat Giants 34-24 (combined 58); over 46.5 wins.
“Moneyline minus 124 is something that I played.”
18-15 — Broncos beat Texans 18-15; Houston Texans moneyline busts.
“I clicked Saints money line at plus 780 this week.”
34-10 — Rams beat Saints 34-10; New Orleans Saints moneyline busts.
“So ultimately I like the over at 52 and a half.”
DET 24, TB 9 — Lions beat the Buccaneers 24-9 on Oct 20, 2025; combined 33 points, under the 52.5 total, so the over bet lost (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, I bet some Dillon Gabriel anytime touchdown score today.”
CLE 31, MIA 6 — Dillon Gabriel completed 13-of-18 for 116 yards and rushed 4 times for 12 yards with zero total touchdowns as the Browns beat the Dolphins 31-6 on Oct 19, 2025; the anytime TD prop lost (ESPN recap).
“i i did bet the under 42 in this game and 41 was my cutoff”
NYG 34, PHI 17 — Giants beat Eagles 34-17; the combined 51 points blew past the under 42 (ESPN).
“so i'll pick the seahawks but i will say that this is a game where you have to very closely monitor injuries on the seattle defensive side of the ball i think demarcus lawrence will play that's good in terms of edra edge rush secondaries and shambles seattle plays a ton of too high jacksonville is going to have to move the ball methodically down the field trevor lawrence makes too many mistakes to do that in my opinion so i like seattle in this game i've already bet some”
SEA 20, JAX 12 — Seahawks beat Jaguars 20-12; the Seahawks moneyline won (ESPN).
“There's still some 47 and a half. I would grab those unders right now.”
WSH 27, LAC 10 — Commanders beat Chargers 27-10; the combined score comes in under the 47.5 total (ESPN).
“I actually, I bet Europe”
Europe defeated the United States 15-13 to win the 2025 Ryder Cup at Bethpage Black (PGA Tour).
“yeah so i laid it with the lions and uh i just want to be explicitly clear like there's still nine and a half out there”
DET 34, CLE 10 — Lions beat Browns 34-10, a margin of 24 that covers Detroit -9.5 (ESPN box score).
“I think the Falcons are a valuable number here at Pickham.”
ATL 34, WSH 27 — Falcons beat Commanders 34-27, a margin of +7 that covers Atlanta pick'em (ESPN box score).
“give me the winner in the game i like the raiders here”
CHI 25, LV 24 — Bears beat Raiders 25-24 on a blocked field goal; Raiders moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I took Titan seven and a half.”
HOU 26, TEN 0 — Texans shut out Titans 26-0; Tennessee's -26 margin misses the +7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“i took a little bit of under 50 yesterday small play”
LAR 27, IND 20 — Rams beat Colts 27-20 (combined 47 points); under 50 covers (ESPN box score).
“I like the Dolphins team total over 23.5”
MIA 27, NYJ 21 — Dolphins beat Jets 27-21; Miami's 27 points covers over 23.5 team points (ESPN box score/recap). (Miami Dolphins: 27 team points)
“Patriots, a one and a half point home dog, total in the game 44 and a half. What do you think pats and steelers yeah i'm just really struggling to understand this one so i'm pretty down on the steelers right now and uh i'm gonna pull out the classic hashtag wrong team favored in this game i think the patriots should be favored”
PIT 21, NE 14 — Steelers beat the Patriots 21-14; New England +1.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Bet MGM has three and a half, and I'm looking at a couple other sportsbooks. It looks like we're about to come off of three and a half and go down to the key number of three, total sitting at 44 and a half. What are your thoughts on this Rams-Eagles rematch from this past January? Yeah, I'll definitely have some thinking to do with if we do get a three with the Eagles. That would sort of be a buy point for me, but I've already played the over in this game”
PHI 33, LAR 26 — Eagles beat Rams 33-26, combined 59 points; over 44.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“So I did bet some Broncos three, but that's like my cutoff, really.”
LAC 23, DEN 20 — Chargers beat Broncos 23-20, a 3-point margin; Denver +3 pushes exactly (ESPN box score).
“Minnesota a three-point home favorite, but looks like this will drop back to two and a half. total bet up to 42 and a half yeah i i like some over here as well i'm still monitoring you obviously have ryan kelly and christian darris monitor on the minnesota offensive line offensively though uh van ginkle would be another one i'd monitor for the minnesota vikings but it's not that it's not a like a there's definitely downgrades to the quarterbacks here but jake browning will still push the ball downfield uh kind of reminds me of like the nick mullins experience from the vikings a couple years ago as well where he'll make some mistakes but he'll push the ball. Minnesota gets Carson Wentz in there. I don't like Carson Wentz. The last time we saw him, he was still a pretty bad quarterback, but the Vikings offense has been so sheltered with J.J. McCarthy. I mean, you look at the play calling from Kevin O'Connell, and they're not even trying to move the ball downfield. I think just by virtue of having Wentz in there, they push it a little bit more So Bengals defense is bad Vikings defense could be bad with the amount of injuries that they have Flores faced Browning a couple years ago and Browning had a huge game against him So I think this is going to be a sneaky high game as well I played some over here”
MIN 48, CIN 10 — Vikings routed the Bengals 48-10, combined 58 points; over 42.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“What is your one favorite prop that you personally will be invested in coming up in Super Bowl 59? I'll give you one for BetMGM because obviously you're the BetMGM network now. I'll be on Saquon Barkley's longest rush under 23.5 plus 105 at BetMGM. That's one that I like quite a bit.”
Saquon Barkley's longest carry in Super Bowl LIX was 10 yards (25 carries, 57 yards), well under the 23.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Saquon Barkley longest rush: 10 yards (25 car, 57 yds))
“Looking at BetMGM right now, his receiving yard just 21 and a half. I like that to the over.”
PHI 55, WSH 23 — Austin Ekeler caught 5 of 7 targets for 17 receiving yards in the Eagles' 55-23 win over the Commanders in the NFC Championship (Jan 26, 2025), under his 21.5 receiving yards line (ESPN box score). (Austin Ekeler: 5 rec, 17 receiving yards)
“Kansas City's minus 130, so you're paying a little bit of VIG. But I think that they get it done more often than that price would indicate”
KC 32, BUF 29 — The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Buffalo Bills 32-29 in the AFC Championship on Jan 26, 2025, so the Chiefs moneyline wins (ESPN).
“There's still some 46 and a half out there. I would honestly play over on 46 and a half.”
31-7 — Bills beat Broncos 31-7 in the Jan 12, 2025 AFC Wild Card game; combined 38 points, under the 46.5 total (ESPN box score).
“I bet MGM has his completions at 20 and a half. I would play the under there as well.”
Jordan Love went 20-of-33 passing in the Jan 12, 2025 Wild Card loss to Philadelphia, finishing with exactly 20 completions, under the 20.5 line (ESPN box score). (Jordan Love 20 completions (20-of-33))
“So like Tampa Bay, minus three, minus one ten.”
23-20 — Commanders beat Buccaneers 23-20 in the Jan 12, 2025 NFC Wild Card game; Tampa Bay lost outright, failing to cover -3 (ESPN box score).
“I really, really like the Packers getting three and a half”
DET 34, GB 31 — Lions beat Packers 34-31 on Dec 5, 2024; Green Bay's +3.5 covers, losing by only 3 (ESPN).
“I would play them on the money line as well. I bet MGM I see on screen plus 155”
DET 34, GB 31 — Lions beat Packers 34-31 on Dec 5, 2024; Green Bay's moneyline bet lost (ESPN).
“I like the Saints have four and a half here”
NO 14, NYG 11 — Saints beat Giants 14-11 on Dec 8, 2024; New Orleans won by only 3, not covering the -4.5 line (ESPN).
“I also took six in this game”
CIN 27, DAL 20 — Bengals beat Cowboys 27-20 on Dec 9, 2024; Dallas lost by 7, not covering the +6 line (ESPN).
“Chiefs minus 200 feels like a valuable bet to me”
KC 19, LAC 17 — Chiefs beat Chargers 19-17 on Dec 8, 2024 on a walk-off field goal; Kansas City's moneyline covers (ESPN).
“If you just wanted to play one to reduce the risk, I like New England team total over 18 and a half.”
15-34 — Patriots scored 15 points in a 34-15 loss to Miami, under the 18.5 New England team total (ESPN final score).
“I think that these teams there's a big gap between these two teams i like minnesota minus three and a half minus 105”
30-27 — Vikings beat Bears 30-27 in overtime, a 3-point margin, short of the Minnesota -3.5 spread (ESPN final score).
“I think Broncos right now in the team total market is at 23 and a half, juice to the over, pretty much minus 115, minus 120 at most books. I think that's the best look right now.”
29-19 — Denver scored 29 points in a 29-19 win over Las Vegas, clearing the 23.5 Broncos team total (ESPN final score).
“I think 50 and a half is too low, bet the over.”
30-23 — Ravens beat Chargers 30-23 (played Nov 25, 2024), a combined 53 points, clearing the 50.5 total (ESPN final score).
“minus four and a half minus 115 for the Rams I like that quite a bit this week”
28-22 — Rams beat Patriots 28-22 (ESPN box score), a 6-point win that clears the -4.5 spread.
“it's hashtag wrong team favored on x baby cleveland browns here”
14-35 — Saints beat Browns 35-14 (ESPN box score), so the Cleveland moneyline loses.
“I think 44 is a little bit too high here for the total. Obviously being a key number, I like the under.”
28-27 — Colts beat Jets 28-27 (ESPN box score) for a combined 55 points, well over the 44 total, so the under loses.
“I'll go Denver Broncos team total over. It's an expensive 21 and a half juice to the over”
6-38 — Broncos scored 38 in their 38-6 win over the Falcons (ESPN box score), well over the 21.5 Denver team total. (Broncos 38 points)
“Kansas city chiefs plus one 15. I like them on the money line.”
21-30 — Bills beat Chiefs 30-21 (ESPN box score), so the Kansas City moneyline loses.
“They are terrible. I would lay six and a half with the Giants. I would lay seven.”
17-20 — Panthers beat Giants 20-17 in overtime, so Giants -6.5 lost outright (ESPN game recap).
“totals down to 39. Where do you stand on this game? New England at Chicago. So I like the over in this game.”
19-3 — Patriots beat Bears 19-3, combined total of 22 is well under the 39 line, so the Over lost (ESPN box score).
“I like the Jets. I mean, minus 110 is what you guys have up a money line here.”
6-31 — Cardinals beat Jets 31-6, so Jets moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“I think the Colts are very live this week I like the plus four here”
30-20 — Bills beat Colts 30-20 (margin of 10), so Colts +4 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“I like the over a little bit in this game. I think you're going to see a lot of explosive plays with these wide receiving cores in this game. So over 50.”
23-15 — Dolphins beat Rams 23-15, combined total of 38 is under the 50 line, so the Over lost (ESPN box score).
“I have interest in the Commies team total over here. So bet MGM 43 and a half. You'll find the team total at 23 and a half juiced over.”
27-22 — Commanders scored 27 points in their 27-22 win over the Giants on 11/3/24 (7-14-3-3 by quarter), over the 23.5 team-total line (ESPN box score).
“The total, Rob, here is 49. Miami coming off the last second loss last week to Arizona. Yeah, I like the under in this game.”
27-30 — Bills beat Dolphins 30-27 on 11/3/24; combined 57 points is over the 49 total line (ESPN final).
“obviously one and a half and the total is sitting at 48 and a half dk met calf seahawks wide receiver his status uncertain as of right now ahead of Sunday's game. Yeah, we very rarely bet early in the week, but we took a position on the Rams very quickly, which I didn't agree with the opening line here in this game.”
26-20 — Rams beat Seahawks 26-20 in overtime on 11/3/24, winning outright and covering +1.5 (ESPN final).
“I like team total under for Tampa at 17 and a half.”
24-30 — Buccaneers scored 24 points in their 30-24 OT loss to the Chiefs on 11/4/24, well over the 17.5 team-total under (ESPN final).
“nine to me is I don't want to say insane it's the NFL the market dictates the play but I thought this was going to come down to somewhere in the seven range that's where I have it priced I like Cleveland quite a bit this week well you have a 10 seconds a Browns money line ticket as well I will”
29-24 — Browns beat Ravens 29-24 outright on 2024-10-27, easily covering the +9 spread (ESPN final score).
“Cleveland quite a bit this week well you have a 10 seconds a Browns money line ticket as well I will”
29-24 — Browns beat Ravens 29-24 outright on 2024-10-27, cashing the moneyline (ESPN final score).
“Cleveland quite a bit this week well you have a 10 seconds a Browns money line ticket as well I will yeah i'll bet brown's money like i'll also bet brown's alts minus five and a half i'll have a”
29-24 — Browns beat Ravens 29-24, a 5-point margin, which falls short of the -5.5 alternate spread (ESPN final score).
“at 47 I'm going to play the over in this game all right so over with the Falcons and the Buccaneers”
31-26 — Falcons beat Buccaneers 31-26 on 2024-10-27; combined 57 points clears the Over 47 total (ESPN final score).
“yeah i i like the over undertook significant money in market today i was actually surprised at that uh missed the 40 and a half that was out there for just a little bit got beat to that but 41 now key number i'm with you guys on the over here a new england's defense is really bad”
25-22 — Patriots beat Jets 25-22 on 2024-10-27; combined 47 points clears the Over 41 total (ESPN final score).
“but six and a half is too much. I'll take the Giants here.”
26-18 — Steelers beat Giants 26-18, a margin of 8, so Giants +6.5 did not cover (ESPN final score).
“[2:18:27] Whatever it is, it is 43. [2:18:30] How are you getting the Eagles and the Giants? [2:18:32] I like the under in this game to get, you know, you mentioned the injuries off the top of two teams without their left tackles in this game.”
PHI 28-3 NYG — Eagles beat Giants 28-3 on 2024-10-20; combined 31 points is well under the 43 total (ESPN final score).
“[26:11] But at 260 at BetMGM right now, I'm on it already. I bet it. I like that as a potential bet this week.”
HOU 41, NE 21 — Texans beat Patriots 41-21 on Oct 13, 2024; New England moneyline busts (ESPN).
“[2:31:28] And let's start, my friend, in the Windy City with the Bears and the Panthers. [2:31:32] Chicago, a four point home favorite and the total here, 42 and yet another revenge game for Andy Dalton. [2:31:38] Yeah, this total's been moving up and down. Up this afternoon, a little bit of buyback towards the under. There's nothing new on the weather here in Chicago. It's not expected to be super windy this weekend as far as the latest weather reports are concerned. And I just think Carolina profiles as such an over team right now. I really do, regardless of the opponent. [2:31:59] You might be concerned about the Bears offense, and that's completely fair, but they're getting better with each passing week. [2:32:05] You see them take on bad defenses in the Colts and the Rams, and they're scoring into the 20s, and they're starting to move the ball a little bit better. [2:32:13] And I think this is going to be the worst of the bunch in terms of defenses with the Panthers when you consider the injuries in the linebacking core. [2:32:19] Josie Jewell got hurt last week, which is a big blow for them. [2:32:23] They put Shaq Thompson on IR today as well. [2:32:26] that's going to be a blow for them already a disastrous injuries there and then Carolina's [2:32:31] offense is just different now like it's just different with Andy Dalton they can move the [2:32:35] ball I get that people really like the Bears defense but this isn't like you know a top five [2:32:40] defense nowadays we're not talking about defenses that were shut down years ago where you couldn't [2:32:44] move the ball or anything like that Stafford made some good throws last week with a very depleted [2:32:49] receiving core against this defense I think this number is a little bit too short I had this around [2:32:54] 43 and a half, maybe pushing 44 with my number. [2:32:57] I think there's value on the over here. [2:32:59] All right.”
36-10 — Bears beat Panthers 36-10; the combined 46 points clears the over 42 total (ESPN box score).
“[2:33:21] uh Ravens a juice two and a half on the road at Cincinnati Rob the total is now 49 and a half [2:33:26] yeah I like the Bengals in this game and listen some people might be waiting for threes to pop [2:33:32] I I don't like to do that because the reality is once they do pop they get bet so quickly anyways [2:33:37] I think this is a valuable number regardless uh at two and a half minus 105 or you can play the [2:33:43] money line I think the Bengals are underrated right now I I think you look at the offense [2:33:48] especially over the past couple of weeks, and they can really move the ball. [2:33:52] And the challenge with the Ravens defense, which has performed really well the past couple of weeks [2:33:57] against the Cowboys, against the Bills, in week one against the Chiefs as well, [2:34:01] those are teams that just don't have the dynamic receivers that the Bengals do. [2:34:06] You look at the team that they struggled with, the Ravens, it was the Raiders who beat them at home. [2:34:11] People forget this team lost at home to the Raiders, but it was Devontae Adams and Jacoby Myers in that game, [2:34:16] and this is Tee Higgins and Jamar Chase in this game I think the Ravens secondary is way overrated [2:34:21] especially at cornerbacks I like the Bengals from that perspective people also concerned about the [2:34:27] defense for Cincinnati Trey Hendrickson looks very much like he's going to play this week his [2:34:31] stinger there was no nerve damage I'd be shocked if he sits BJ Hill's practicing today so they might [2:34:37] get another player back on the defensive line which would be big for them but people talk about [2:34:42] the Bengals defense like it's the worst defense in the league and I think this stemmed from the game [2:34:46] against the commanders by the way commanders score on everyone that's just what happens right now but [2:34:51] stemmed from that game the Bengals defense is more in like the 20 to 24 range they're not very good [2:34:56] but they can generate some stops here and there they played a good game against Patrick Mahomes [2:35:00] we can see that so I just think that this is I mean my number is closer to a pick here than [2:35:05] Baltimore pushing three this is to me the most valuable side on the board this week I like [2:35:09] Cincinnati. All right, let's go to the Browns and the”
41-38 — Ravens beat Bengals 41-38 in overtime; Cincinnati's 3-point loss fails to cover the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“[2:35:19] Washington in between a three and three and a half point [2:35:21] home favor. Total 43 and a half. Rob, I feel like [2:35:24] I'm on Moron Island right now. I'm the only person that I've [2:35:28] seen doing any kind of betting content that likes the [2:35:30] commanders this week against the Browns. What say you? [2:35:33] I'm going to pour myself a margarita and join you on Moron Island, [2:35:37] Nick. Hell yeah. [2:35:38] You know, listen, I get the arguments in favor of the Browns. [2:35:43] I totally understand it. [2:35:45] I don't put much stock into like look ahead lines, what the number would have been a week ago. [2:35:49] Or I think we have to react to new data points in the NFL whenever they become available. [2:35:54] And every new data point on the Browns this year is that this offense stinks. [2:35:59] They can't really do anything. [2:36:01] They scored 10 points early against the Raiders last week. [2:36:03] Couldn't move it again afterwards. [2:36:05] Granted, some bad drops by Amari Cooper, [2:36:08] a touchdown called back I get it but this is a bad offense And we get new data points on Washington every week which is they move the ball on everyone A lot of the talking points around the commander offense are they played nobody It fair They really haven They [2:36:22] played bad defenses, but I'm going to push back on what the Browns defense actually is right now, [2:36:28] because I think the Browns defense is actually way overrated, and people give them way more [2:36:32] credit than they deserve. You look at the Browns schedule this year. They've played [2:36:37] Dallas, Jacksonville, Giants, Las Vegas. That's the seventh easiest schedule of opposing offenses [2:36:44] by success rate, ninth easiest by EPA, yet they've still ranked 21st in EPA. Adjusted for [2:36:52] non-garbage time. They're not a great defense. You go back to last year and look at all these [2:36:59] EPA numbers that they put up. Look at the quarterbacks they faced last season. They went [2:37:04] on this stretch of terrible quarterbacks, Clayton Toon, they got Kenny Pickett twice, Russell Wilson, [2:37:11] Justin Fields, they played Trevor Simeon. I'm missing someone here as well. I don't think the [2:37:18] Browns defense is as good as we give them credit for. So yes, it's a step up in class. I still [2:37:22] think Washington's going to move the ball. Tell me how Cleveland moves the ball without potentially [2:37:27] three-fifths, four-fifths of their starting offensive line with a quarterback that just [2:37:32] can't process you can't read the field right now I I know I know where these teams were at the [2:37:39] beginning of the year I have a feeling I'm going to look back on this at in week 10 and be like [2:37:43] why did I not bet way more on Washington in this price range because I just like the offense that [2:37:48] much I love the commanders in the game also you are uh you're preaching to the choir here with”
34-13 — Commanders beat Browns 34-13, a 21-point win that covers the -3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I like Green Bay and I like the over. This all stems around the Rams [2:38:10] defense being really, really bad and facing the Bears last week who are not the team that's going [2:38:15] to really run up the scoreboard and exploit that. But if you look across any meaningful metric in the [2:38:22] NFL this year, the Rams are very much near the bottom and it's not going to improve. They just [2:38:27] don't have the personnel on defense to compete with better offenses. Jordan Love got better as [2:38:32] the game went on last week, but where the Rams really struggle is giving up explosive plays. [2:38:37] The Packers love to generate explosive plays.”
24-19 — Packers beat Rams 24-19; the 5-point margin covers the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“[2:37:53] the commies over the Browns uh what about the Packers and the Rams Rob in Los Angeles Green [2:37:58] Bay a juice three-point road favorite and Matthew Stafford and company total 48 and a half. [2:38:03] Couple looks in this game. I like Green Bay and I like the over. This all stems around the Rams [2:38:10] defense being really, really bad and facing the Bears last week who are not the team that's going [2:38:15] to really run up the scoreboard and exploit that. But if you look across any meaningful metric in the [2:38:22] NFL this year, the Rams are very much near the bottom and it's not going to improve. They just [2:38:27] don't have the personnel on defense to compete with better offenses. Jordan Love got better as [2:38:32] the game went on last week, but where the Rams really struggle is giving up explosive plays. [2:38:37] The Packers love to generate explosive plays. They somehow generated explosive plays when Malik [2:38:43] Willis was there. That's how good they are at game planning and getting the ball downfield.”
24-19 — Packers beat Rams 24-19; the combined 43 points falls under the 48.5 total (ESPN box score).
“[2:33:55] I'm playing the money line again this week.”
DAL 20, NYG 15 — Cowboys beat Giants 20-15, so the Giants moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“[2:35:21] And I really think Tampa is a valuable number right now at this price, whether you want to play the plus two or you want to grab a money line in the plus 105, 110 range at this point.”
TB 33, PHI 16 — Buccaneers beat Eagles 33-16, covering the Tampa Bay +2 spread by a wide margin (ESPN box score).
“[2:37:11] and we'll get to some games you have leans on, Rob, and this is the Bengals at the Panthers. [2:37:15] Revenge game for Andy Dalton. [2:37:17] Joe Burrow in the 0-3 Bengals, four-point road favorites. [2:37:19] Total in the game, bet down to 47. [2:37:21] I find that a little curious. [2:37:23] Rob, where are you at here with the Bengals and the Panthers coming up in Carolina? [2:37:27] Well, let's call it bi-curious, Nick, because I'm also finding it a little bit curious as well. [2:37:33] I don't know. [2:37:33] OK, look, Monday night football, we had Bengals and commanders. [2:37:37] And so much money is coming in on the under leading up to game time. [2:37:41] And I'm like, what is going on here? [2:37:43] I already had an edge on the over. [2:37:45] And now this is turning into a massive edge. [2:37:47] I almost never bet on game day in NFL. [2:37:50] And I hit that over. [2:37:51] And I'm doing the same thing here again. Like, I don't know what it is. Someone in market seems to really like Bengals unders. To me, they profile as one of the biggest over teams in the league right now. Like, they move the ball through the air. They finally have the full complement of weapons. This is not the defense that's going to slow down the Cincinnati Bengals. Like, they're going to move the ball on Carolina. And finally, the Panthers have some semblance of an offense. They actually do have a good offensive line. [2:38:17] Who knew Deontay Johnson's actually a good receiver. [2:38:20] And when he's wide open on every play, Andy Dalton can hit him. [2:38:24] Unlike all these other bums, he's had a quarterback in the past. [2:38:27] So I don't really get it. [2:38:29] I do notice a lot in market that a lot of times these totals tend to move towards, you know, what the look ahead total was in the game. [2:38:36] And it was very low last week. [2:38:37] It was like 43 and a half or 44. [2:38:39] I don't care. [2:38:40] Like, I think people really underrated the Panthers offense going into last week's game. [2:38:45] I think it's a low total, honestly. [2:38:46] it's the best total play on the board i like the over here you better you bet here nick femi and”
CIN 34, CAR 24 — Bengals beat Panthers 34-24, combining for 58 points, clearing the over 47 total (ESPN box score).
“[2:44:05] closing three so I think that this is a slightly valuable bet and bills plus 110 on the money line”
BAL 35, BUF 10 — Ravens beat Bills 35-10 on Sunday Night Football, so the Bills moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“[2:45:16] Take the three and a half.”
DET 42, SEA 29 — Lions beat Seahawks 42-29, winning by 13, well beyond the Seahawks +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“[2:34:41] Titans now a one and a half point home favorite against Malik Willis and the Packers. [2:34:45] I guess maybe Jordan Love total 37 and a half. [2:34:48] Yeah, it absolutely did move immediately when Jordan Love was at practice. [2:34:52] So that is the result that that is what resulted in this movement. [2:34:56] He did say after practice that he is going to try to play on Sunday. [2:35:02] I am personally not buying it. I'm not. I just don't think he's going to get there. This was [2:35:07] reported originally as a four to six week injury. Ian Rappaport immediately said he's going to be [2:35:12] out for this week as well a few weeks ago. And now all of a sudden that's changing. [2:35:17] I'm going back to the well on the Titans as well. And you know what? I'll tell you this. If we do [2:35:21] get some news and Jordan Love does end up playing by end of the week, okay, I'm going to be sitting [2:35:25] on a bad number. I'm not even going to hate it because there is a pretty long history in the NFL [2:35:30] of people coming back early from injury [2:35:33] and just being not ready to play [2:35:35] and completely a shell of their former selves, [2:35:38] especially at the quarterback position. [2:35:40] Tennessee, like, listen, [2:35:41] I know all the reasons someone wouldn't bet Tennessee. [2:35:44] I've bet them, I watched the games,”
GB 30, TEN 14 — Green Bay beat Tennessee 30-14 (ESPN), a 16-point loss for the Titans that busts -1.5.
“[2:39:41] Bills and the Jaguars 2-0 Buffalo 0-2 Jacksonville Bills a five and a half point home favorite 45 [2:39:46] and a half these two teams played last year in London a similar market early in the season and [2:39:51] The Jaguars won outright. [2:39:53] What do you think we see Monday night in Western New York? [2:39:56] Yeah, I like the Jags in this game. [2:39:58] It's purely a numbers play for me. [2:40:00] I like the Bills. [2:40:02] I do like the Bills as a team. [2:40:03] They have Josh Allen. [2:40:05] He's amazing. [2:40:06] It scares me to death to bet against him. [2:40:08] But you're looking at some very significant injuries for the Bills on defense that are continuing to compound. [2:40:13] Now with Terrell Bernard being out, the middle of that defense can easily be exposed. [2:40:19] I mean, you look at the safeties they have this year. [2:40:21] It's a big downgrade from what they had there a year ago. So Jacksonville, especially again in the running game, I think that they can keep this game close. I wasn't impressed with Jacksonville last week against Cleveland. That's a different beast against the Browns defense. In week one, I mean, they're basically a Travis Etienne fumble away from winning that game and they're one and one and they're being talked about very differently in the market right now. [2:40:44] So to me, this is just a case of too many points. I don't think Buffalo is a fraud or anything along those lines. I think Jacksonville might just be a little bit undervalued in the market. One other thing with this, Trevor Lawrence hasn't been impressive. I'm not a Trevor Lawrence stand by any stretch of the imagination. Already five drops in the first two games of the year. Drops were a big issue for their wide receivers last year as well. [2:41:06] at some point or another i do believe that these drops are going to go away like this he throws a [2:41:11] pretty ball it's not like it's one of those ugly ones that you just see end over end pretty [2:41:16] consistently so i think there's a lot of of upside that we haven't seen yet with the jags and i'll [2:41:21] take them at the five and a half hey rob this cowboys ravens game i think it's really interesting”
BUF 47, JAX 10 — Buffalo beat Jacksonville 47-10 (ESPN), a 37-point margin that busts Jacksonville +5.5.
“[1:47:31] I love the Raiders in this game coming up against Baltimore. [1:47:34] I think no way the Ravens' offensive line can block Max Crosby in the Raiders' defensive front. [1:47:39] We're sitting now about 9.5, right? [1:47:41] Although Femi was saying in some books now it's about 8.5, so the Raiders have been getting bet. [1:47:45] But Baltimore still more than a touchdown favorite, a little less than 10. [1:47:48] Total of the game is 41.5. [1:47:51] Rob, what is your bet or thought on the Ravens and the Raiders rematch, obviously, of the hotly contested 2000 AFC championship game? [1:48:00] Yeah, I think the quote unquote narrative around both of these teams is a little bit misguided. [1:48:05] Obviously, the Ravens come down to the wire against the Chiefs, could easily have won the game on a two point conversion. [1:48:11] If not, you know, Isaiah likely still being out of bounds on that play. [1:48:15] But the reality is the Ravens were beaten down for the majority of that game. [1:48:21] Like they scored a scripted drive touchdown at the beginning. [1:48:24] Then they went six straight possessions where they only scored three points and they did most of their damage and garbage time late in the game. [1:48:31] So I don't really see the reason to upgrade the Ravens in any case. [1:48:35] And the Raiders, on the other hand, Raiders played an abysmal game and they really got beat down by the Chargers offensive line who have two really good tackles and played big boy football. [1:48:45] And the Raiders had some self-inflicted wounds, minus three turnover margin in the game. [1:48:50] But they were still within one score when Antonio Pierce had that inexplicable fourth and one punt midway through the fourth quarter there. [1:48:59] And I kind of just feel like there's people really soured on Las Vegas. [1:49:05] Now, I was never high on them going into the year, but I don't think that there's that big of a gap between these two teams in terms of the way that the point spread is constructed now. [1:49:13] I still have issues with the Ravens O-line. [1:49:16] It was apparent against the Chiefs D-line. [1:49:18] I think it's going to be very apparent against the Raiders edge rushers in this game as well. [1:49:23] You look at Lamar last week, hurried on eight throws in week one. [1:49:27] That was tops in the league. [1:49:29] This is a Raiders team that can get after the quarterback. [1:49:32] The Ravens might just choose to run the ball, but behind that offensive line, [1:49:36] I'm not sure that the offense is good enough right now for them to be laying this type of number. [1:49:41] Obviously, I have concerns betting Antonio Pierce against Harbaugh with extra time to prepare. [1:49:47] but this is factored into my number and I kind of like getting the Raiders in [1:49:51] these types of spots where there's no expectations for them. [1:49:54] I think they can easily hang around in this game in Baltimore.”
LV 26, BAL 23 — Raiders beat the Ravens 26-23 outright, easily covering +9.5 (ESPN box score).
“[1:50:14] Rob, let's see if we can make it two for two on bets that you and I like. [1:50:17] And Femi likes this bet also. [1:50:19] My Giants, not a good performance in week one. [1:50:23] On the road at the Washington Commanders, not a good performance for them either. [1:50:26] Basically, Rob, pick the winner of this game. [1:50:28] Giants at the commies total here is 44. [1:50:31] Yeah, I know it's a small spread, but I think for the first time I could break out the hashtag wrong team favor in this game. [1:50:38] Hell yeah. [1:50:39] I like the Giants. [1:50:41] Obviously, catastrophic game for them. [1:50:44] There's nothing you can say positively about the Giants last week. [1:50:49] They were just outmatched from a coaching standpoint, personnel. [1:50:53] What I read into that game was, one, Minnesota's defense is way better with Brian Flores. [1:51:00] They were causing some severe confusion. [1:51:02] They were getting into the backfield. [1:51:04] Daniel Jones was not equipped to handle that Minnesota defense. [1:51:09] This is not the Minnesota defense. [1:51:11] Washington's defense is horrendous like this is not disrespect to Baker Mayfield [1:51:17] I think he actually might be underrated at this point in his career but he had a [1:51:20] 74% drop back success rate against Washington last week they have nothing in [1:51:26] pass defense they can generate a pass rush their corners are bad so this in my opinion is the bounce back game for the Giants offense I not saying I super bullish on Daniel Jones I not But I think what you saw last week was not predictive of what we will see going forwards at least against worse defenses [1:51:44] I did watch a lot of Washington, Tampa Bay. A lot of people are very impressed with Jaden Daniels. [1:51:50] I'll just tell you, like, I'm not a big tape guy, but personally, I didn't find him to be super impressive. [1:51:55] I think one thing I did like was coming out of college the knock on him in the draft was he his [1:52:02] pressure to sack rate is is super high whenever he's pressured he gets sacked he was able to evade [1:52:07] the Bucs defense a little bit but this Giants front seven is pretty good and I do think that [1:52:12] they'll be able to at least rattle a rookie quarterback a little bit here so I mean people [1:52:18] are like well you know these teams are kind of equal the line's got to be right home field [1:52:21] advantage for Washington home field advantage is pretty much next to nothing these days like I [1:52:25] don't just apply standard home field advantage across the league as well I like the Giants here [1:52:31] honestly I think they're a better football team than Washington I think they match up well with [1:52:36] Washington and that money line price any anything with a plus in front of it I would go and bet it [1:52:41] so I agree thoughts about it in the open of the show I'll also add Malik neighbors yardage prop”
WSH 21, NYG 18 — Commanders beat the Giants 21-18; Giants moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“[1:53:00] Rob, this Colts-Packers game, [1:53:02] such an interesting one from a betting perspective, right? [1:53:05] Maybe the most interesting game thus far on the young season. [1:53:07] You know, I think Green Bay, and you can speak to this, right, [1:53:10] probably would have been, what, like four and a half or five [1:53:12] at home against the Colts with a healthy Jordan Love. [1:53:14] Love is not healthy. [1:53:15] I don't care what Matt LaFleur says. [1:53:17] Malik Willis is going to play in this game. [1:53:19] And as such, we have Colts now, 3-110 on the road. [1:53:23] Now, this was 3-1⁄2, 3-1⁄2, so some money coming in on Green Bay. [1:53:26] So Indianapolis now, minus 3 on the road at Malik Willis and the Packers, total of 41. [1:53:32] I'm curious, if you come down on the side of, well, it's gone too far, I'm going to take Green Bay, [1:53:37] or Malik Willis is horrible, it almost doesn't matter what the number is, give me the Colts. [1:53:42] Where do you stand on this game? [1:53:44] yeah it's funny because there's a lot of mixed opinions just like that every time the Colts get [1:53:48] bet out money comes back in on Green Bay and we just kind of keep going through the same cycle [1:53:52] Malik Willis is trash like I cannot understate he's had three starts as a quarterback and has [1:54:01] not thrown for 100 yards like if the Packers offense I listen I know the Colts have injuries [1:54:06] in the secondary this is not the team that's going to exploit it if Malik Willis exploits this [1:54:10] Just like put Matt LaFleur in the Hall of Fame already, get him into Canton, it should be done because he is legitimately terrible. [1:54:19] I ran a query of every quarterback in the last five years in the NFL that's had at least 100 dropbacks. [1:54:26] There's exactly 100 of them. [1:54:28] Malik Willis ranks dead last in EPA per play. [1:54:32] He is behind Josh Rosen, Ryan Finley, Trace McSorley, Jake Luton, Mike Glennon. [1:54:39] he is a disaster of a quarterback so I just don't understand the people who are like oh it's like [1:54:45] too much of a it is a massive drop-off from Jordan Love to Malik Will you lose the passing game like [1:54:51] you completely lose the passing game in the NFL I don't love the Colts but I like Shane Steichen [1:54:58] I think he's a smart head coach the Packers have a lot of deficiencies in defending the run [1:55:03] and they've they've struggled to defend mobile quarterbacks as well over the past years granted [1:55:08] new defensive coordinator that changes things but I do think the Colts can do enough here where [1:55:13] I like the minus three minus 110 small play I mean it's very counterintuitive to everything I [1:55:20] am as a better because I love these situations where you get the backup in the first start and [1:55:25] they're undervalued but it's Malik Willis people like it's not a competent backup it's not even an [1:55:32] average backup. It's someone who was cut from another team before the season started. So I'm [1:55:39] in the camp of Colts here, and I call the Packers like the fake sharp play. That's my opinion.”
GB 16, IND 10 — Packers beat the Colts 16-10; Indianapolis lost outright, busting the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“[2:20:41] uh, [2:20:42] Panthers and the saints, [2:20:43] not, [2:20:43] not a sexy game from like a neutral viewing standpoint, [2:20:47] but I think one of the most interesting Rob betting markets this week, [2:20:50] and maybe potential betting opportunities this week with the Panthers and Dave [2:20:54] Canales and Bryce young four point road dogs at Derek Allen, [2:20:58] Derek Carr and Dennis Allen total of 42. [2:21:01] Dave Canales, [2:21:02] Bryce young. [2:21:02] And of course, [2:21:03] Eric eager, [2:21:04] former friend of the program. [2:21:05] Who's worth. [2:21:07] That's a great job by you mentioning. [2:21:09] I love, [2:21:09] love air. [2:21:10] I miss Eric eager. [2:21:11] honestly. Yeah, I still chat with him on the side here and there, but it's not the same. [2:21:15] I am playing the Panthers this week, though. I'm high on the Panthers going into the year. I'm low [2:21:20] on the Saints. I honestly don't get any of the love for the Saints. It's just like a lot of [2:21:25] similar parts for them. A perpetual failure at head coach in Dennis Allen. You have Derek Carr, [2:21:31] who is just like the definition of mediocrity. And then you have arguably one of the worst [2:21:36] offensive lines in the entire league. And maybe Carolina is not the team that can fully exploit [2:21:41] that, but they do have Derek Brown in the middle there. I don't love the Saints offense just because [2:21:46] they're going to run Taysom Hill a little bit more. I don't get all the love for New Orleans [2:21:51] going into this year. Carolina upgraded at a lot of positions and maybe this is a team that was [2:21:57] terrible last year. So maybe these upgrades don't take them to 500, but I think they're very [2:22:03] competitive going into this year. Upgrades on the offensive line at guard positions for them. [2:22:08] Obviously, they bring in a number one receiver in Deontay Johnson, who is very good at getting [2:22:12] separation I just think these teams are closer than this line indicates right now I a pessimist when it comes to Bryce Young but you look at Canales and the fact that he turned around Geno Smith the fact that he turned around Baker Mayfield I think there reason for optimism that they will use him in the right way [2:22:30] And I also think Canales is going to be one of those, I'll call it like a woke head coach, [2:22:35] where he's just going to do smart things, like use third down to set up fourth down and stuff [2:22:40] like Dan Campbell does. I just like that. I like the way the organization's headed. I'm optimistic [2:22:45] about the Panthers, I think four points is too many. [2:22:47] And actually, I think the money line's at play as well at plus 165. [2:22:51] And Canales tried to add Tim Walls to the coaching staff,”
47-10 — New Orleans routed Carolina 47-10, so the Panthers' -37 margin missed the +4 line by a wide margin (ESPN box score).
“[2:23:16] Seahawks 6, 41 and a half. [2:23:17] Anything for you, Seahawks and Broncos? [2:23:20] Yeah, I'm going to lay it with the Seahawks here. [2:23:22] Listen, I don't watch a ton of college football. [2:23:25] I'm very honest about that. [2:23:27] I don't have a great read on a lot of these rookie quarterbacks [2:23:29] heading into the year. [2:23:30] I watched Bo Nix in preseason. [2:23:32] I thought he looked fine, [2:23:33] but I think it was really overstated how well he played. [2:23:36] He made a lot of easy throws. [2:23:37] And this is a game where they're very likely [2:23:39] going to be playing from behind. [2:23:41] The Broncos don't have a great defense. [2:23:44] Seattle's offense came to life in the second half of the season last year. [2:23:47] So I think the Seahawks do score points. [2:23:49] And that gets Denver into a game state that they don't want to be in. [2:23:52] The Broncos want to run the ball. [2:23:54] They're going to go run, run, pass a lot this year. [2:23:56] Sean Payton's going to shelter the rookie. [2:23:58] They're going to get into a game state where he's going to have to air it out. [2:24:01] And they just don't have the weapons. [2:24:02] It's like Portland Sutton against these Seahawks corners. [2:24:07] I just see this as a recipe for disaster for the Denver Broncos in game one here. [2:24:11] Maybe Bo Nix proves me wrong. [2:24:12] I thought this number came in a little bit light. [2:24:15] Maybe a little bit optimistic about the Seahawks this season as well because of their coaching staff. [2:24:19] But I think this number is short and it should be a touchdown. [2:24:23] Kim, curious, by the way, when we do Countdown to Kickoff on Sunday morning.”
26-20 — Seattle beat Denver 26-20, a margin of exactly 6, pushing the -6 spread (ESPN box score).
“[2:27:43] with the Rams 30 seconds for Monday Night Football line is drifted back out Niners a four and a half [2:27:49] point favorite with Trent Williams and Brandon Ayuk back in the fold what do you make of the Jets [2:27:53] and Niners, Monday Night Football, total 44, 30 seconds. I played 49ers first half in this game. [2:27:59] I laid two and a half with some heavy juice. I'm going to make Aaron Rodgers, 40-year-old QB, [2:28:04] off the Achilles injury, didn't play in preseason, like new offense, Nathaniel Hackett and Bob Sala [2:28:11] scripting up plays in the early going against Kyle Shanahan. I'll take my chances there that [2:28:15] the 49ers have a better game plan in the early going and that there's a rust factor with the [2:28:19] Jets. Yes, Purdy didn't play with Iyuk and Trent Williams, but there's chemistry there. They've [2:28:24] played there together before. So I'm betting 49ers early in this game. Hey, Rob, obviously a lot of”
16-7 — San Francisco led New York 16-7 at halftime (Q1 3-7, Q2 13-0), covering 49ers first-half -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I had bet some Miami Heat Eastern Conference futures, hoping that he ended up there.”
The Boston Celtics won the 2023-24 Eastern Conference, sweeping the Indiana Pacers 4-0 in the Conference Finals; the Miami Heat did not reach the Conference Finals (ESPN). (Eastern Conference champion: Boston Celtics)
“But I do like Buffalo in this game. Bet MGM, one of the best numbers in market right now, minus two and a half, minus 120.”
48-20 — Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins 48-20 on Oct 1, 2023, a 28-point margin that easily covers Bills -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I still like the total. I still like the over. Obviously, you want to significantly reduce your bet size because 47 is somewhat of a key number when it comes to total.”
24-3 — Seattle Seahawks beat New York Giants 24-3 on Oct 2, 2023; combined 27 points falls well under the over 47 total (ESPN).
“I'm very interested in Baltimore now that the number is three.”
28-3 — Baltimore Ravens beat Cleveland Browns 28-3 on Oct 1, 2023, a 25-point margin that covers Ravens +3 (ESPN box score).
“I make this number closer to five even a little bit short of five and I think it's a good matchup for Denver ultimately plus six and a half I couldn't pass up on that”
MIA 70, DEN 20 — Dolphins routed Broncos 70-20; Denver's -50 margin busts the +6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I honestly just think this total is a couple points too high. I have this closer to 41. I bet 43 and a half today, still like 43, would keep playing it down all the way to 42. So I'm on the under in this game.”
ARI 28, DAL 16 — Cardinals beat Cowboys 28-16; combined 44 points busts the under 43.5 (ESPN box score).
“Bet MGM right now, 15-1 Super Bowl, I think is the best price that's available in market as I look across the screen. I love that as a play.”
25-22 — The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime to win Super Bowl LVIII; the Dallas Cowboys did not reach or win the Super Bowl (ESPN).