Sam Panayotovich

“The receiving yardage number on JSN is 89.5. That's a lot to begin with, let alone taking on Stingley Jr. So I like that under”

SEA 27, HOU 19 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 123 receiving yards, well over the 89.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 123 receiving yards)

“So I do have Washington minus four and a half.”

CHI 25, WSH 24 — Bears beat Commanders 25-24 on Oct 13, 2025; Washington's -1 margin fails to cover -4.5 (ESPN).

“I laid three. Three and a half, don't love it as much, but I do like Kansas City.”

JAX 31, KC 28 — Jaguars beat Chiefs 31-28; the Chiefs spread pick busts.

“I jumped in on Simpson a little bit.”

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza won the 2025 Heisman Trophy on December 13, 2025; Ty Simpson did not win (NFL.com). (2025 Heisman winner: Fernando Mendoza)

“I just bet on them to make the playoffs at minus 190 a couple weeks ago.”

The Chiefs finished 6-11 and were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 15 after a loss to the Chargers, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014 (Chiefs.com). (Chiefs 6-11)

“Padres over Cubs in that round like the series price there on San Diego that's my favorite look”

The Chicago Cubs won the NL Wild Card Series over San Diego 2-1 (Cubs won Games 1 and 3); the Padres did not win the series (Wikipedia 2025 NL Wild Card Series). (Cubs defeated Padres 2-1 in the series)

• Boston Red Sox to win the Wild Card series
• San Diego Padres to win the Wild Card series

“I'm going with the Don Orcillo series parlay. Red Sox, Padres.”

The Red Sox lost the AL Wild Card Series to the Yankees 2-1 and the Padres lost the NL Wild Card Series to the Cubs 2-1, so both parlay legs lost (Wikipedia 2025 Wild Card Series pages). (Yankees defeated Red Sox 2-1; Cubs defeated Padres 2-1)

“Yeah. Like the under, I think under is fair. Obviously you're going to, you're going to need to sweat a little bit, but 54 at MGM. That's the highest it's been all week. This number was 50 and a half on the open. I just need one stop inside the 20, maybe like a fourth and goal at the four. Somebody gets a stop. 54 is a lot. So I'm going to go under tonight.”

DET 38, BAL 30 — Lions beat the Ravens 38-30, a combined 68 points, over the 54 total (ESPN box score).

“Where's – oh, there's Miami at 20-1 to win the title. That number doesn't feel right, does it? I mean, they have NFL offensive and defensive lines with the current favorites that win the Heisman. Talent on the back end. They got four new guys in the secondary. You got NFL receivers. What's the issue? Oh, it's Mario Cristobal, right, because they blew a game against Georgia Tech two years ago. Right, that's what we should be paying attention to. Oh, they also blew a game against Stanford six years ago. We got to get past this as a union. We got to just move past this Mario Cristobal thing. I think for the price, the bet is Miami.”

27-21 — Indiana beat Miami 27-21 to win the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship, so Miami did not win the title (ESPN box score).

“And I think you, Femi, and I have talked about my positions on Jonathan Greenard to win defensive player. Long numbers, 100-1, 120-1.”

Myles Garrett won the 2025 AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year award; Jonathan Greenard did not win. (2025 Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett)

“I have a really nice bet on them to make the playoffs at even money and then I added more plus 110”

The Vikings finished 9-8 and did not qualify for the 2025-26 NFL playoffs. (Minnesota Vikings: 9 wins)

“came in bet the under in the game I can tell you that 44 and a half that's long gone”

MIN 27, CHI 24 — Vikings beat Bears 27-24 (combined 51); under 44.5 busts.

“the only thing I did bet was Roma Dunze over 47 and a half yards.”

MIN 27, CHI 24 — Rome Odunze caught 6 passes for 37 yards in the Vikings' 27-24 win over Chicago, missing over 47.5 receiving yards. (Rome Odunze: 37 receiving yards)

“So I started my Heisman betting in the summer with Carson Beck. Got a really good number on it. I believe we talked about it on this show. All these shows run together. As you know, I think that was the middle of July. Beck was 37 to 1.”

Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) won the 2025 Heisman Trophy; Carson Beck did not win. (2025 Heisman winner: Fernando Mendoza)

“and we found a 37-1 a couple weeks ago.”

Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza won the 2025 Heisman Trophy; Carson Beck did not win, so the futures bet lost. (2025 Heisman winner: Fernando Mendoza (Indiana))

“I'm going to lay the three with Kansas State.”

24-21 — Iowa State beat Kansas State 24-21 on Aug 23, 2025; Kansas State lost outright, so Kansas State -3 busts.

“I went Penn State over 10 and a half”

Penn State finished the 2025 regular season 6-6 (before the Pinstripe Bowl win), under the 10.5 win total. (2025 regular-season record: 6-6)

“Grenard is 100 to 1 at BetMGM for defensive player of the year. I've made worse bets”

Myles Garrett was named the 2025 AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year (unanimous, 50 first-place votes); Jonathan Greenard did not win. (2025 AP Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett)

“I did take the points, and I took 14”

ISU 82, LIP 55 — Iowa State beat Lipscomb 82-55 on 3/21/25, a 27-point margin that exceeds Lipscomb's +14 (ESPN box score).

“So, I bet Devontae first touchdown, 17-1 at that MGM.”

PHI 40, KC 22 — The first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX was Jalen Hurts' 1-yard 'tush push' rushing TD in the first quarter; DeVonta Smith's touchdown catch came later in the game, so he was not the first scorer (ESPN box score).

“And over 2.5 rushing touchdowns. That's a Westgate prop in Vegas. Minus 110 each way, over and under.”

Only 1 rushing touchdown was scored in Super Bowl LIX, Jalen Hurts' 1-yard run; well under the 2.5 line (ESPN game page/box score). (1 total rushing TD)

“I only have 500 to one on Carter.”

Jalen Hurts, not Jalen Carter, was named Super Bowl LIX MVP (NFL.com).

“I have the best worthy number at 125.”

Jalen Hurts, not Xavier Worthy, was named Super Bowl LIX MVP (NFL.com).

“We bet Barkley at five to one and now he's 280.”

Jalen Hurts, not Saquon Barkley, was named Super Bowl LIX MVP (NFL.com).

“my favorite position so far side and total would be under, under 49.”

40-22 — Eagles beat Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX, a combined 62 points, busting the under 49 line (ESPN box score).

• Dawson Knox anytime touchdown
• Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown

“I'm just sitting here putting Dawson Knox and Saquon Barkley in an anytime touchdown parlay. It's only 10 to 1, by the way, in case you were wondering.”

KC 32-BUF 29; PHI 55-WSH 23 — Dawson Knox had 1 catch for 7 receiving yards and no touchdown in the AFC Championship (Chiefs 32, Bills 29); Saquon Barkley scored 3 rushing TDs in the separate NFC Championship (Eagles 55, Commanders 23), but one losing leg sinks the parlay (ESPN box scores).

“I did bet Allen to score even money.”

KC 32-BUF 29 — Josh Allen threw 2 passing TDs and rushed for 39 yards but did not score a rushing or receiving touchdown in the AFC Championship, a 32-29 Chiefs win (ESPN box score). (Josh Allen: 0 rushing/receiving TD)

“We like Dawson Knox over 13 and a half yards that may have moved up a little bit.”

KC 32-BUF 29 — Dawson Knox caught 1 pass for 7 receiving yards in the AFC Championship, well under the 13.5 line (ESPN box score). (Dawson Knox: 7 receiving yards)

“i like michigan plus four don't love it but i did bet a little plus four”

PUR 91-MICH 64 — Purdue beat Michigan 91-64, a 27-point Michigan loss that busts the +4 spread (ESPN box score).

“I did bet a lot of bone necks to throw a pick stuff earlier in the week when they first started putting those markets up, like minus 135, minus 140.”

31-7 — Bo Nix went 13-of-22 for 144 yards with 0 interceptions in Denver's 31-7 wild-card loss to Buffalo on Jan 12, 2025 (ESPN box score). (Bo Nix: 0 interceptions)

“I'd much rather have my money on Miami than on New York in this game.”

NYJ 32, MIA 20 — Jets beat Dolphins 32-20 on Jan 5, 2025; Miami moneyline busts (ESPN box score).

“Sammy bet plus three, minus 15 for the Minnesota Vikings.”

DET 31, MIN 9 — Lions beat Vikings 31-9 on Jan 5, 2025; Minnesota's -22 margin busts the +3 spread (ESPN box score).

“Now we're up to six. One book has six and a half. That's too much for me, man. I think the true number is probably three”

Ohio State 28, Texas 14 — Ohio State beat Texas 28-14 in the Cotton Bowl on Jan 10, 2025; Texas's -14 margin busts the +6 spread (ESPN box score).

“So, yeah, I took four with Atlanta.”

WSH 30, ATL 24 — Commanders beat Falcons 30-24 in OT; Atlanta lost by 6, busting the +4 (ESPN box score).

“I'm betting Tomlin in this role, and I'm betting what I believe is the better defense getting six and a half”

BAL 34, PIT 17 — Ravens beat Steelers 34-17 on 12/21/2024; Pittsburgh lost by 17, missing the +6.5 line (ESPN).

“I don't like laying big numbers, but I did here. Bills minus 14.”

BUF 24, NE 21 — Bills beat Patriots 24-21 on 12/22/2024, a 3-point margin that fails to cover Buffalo -14 (ESPN).

• Kansas City Chiefs moneyline won
• Carolina Panthers moneyline lost

“I wheeled Kansas City on the money line with the Panthers, ironically enough, on the money line. BetMGM giving you plus 144 this very moment.”

KC 21-7 CLE; DAL 30-14 CAR — Chiefs beat Browns 21-7 on Dec 15, 2024 (moneyline leg won), but Cowboys beat Panthers 30-14 the same day, so the Carolina Panthers moneyline leg lost and the two-leg parlay busted (ESPN box scores).

“I bet it, I can't remember, Monday or Tuesday, before they ruled back out. I just thought, look, this team, I make this team favorite over Georgia, And then we did see a look-ahead number with ND minus 2.5 against Georgia. I don't know that that's right. I think it's closer to 1. But Georgia offensively is challenged. I look at this as a two-game roll. Beat Indiana at home as an 8-point favorite. Beat Georgia potentially. And then you could free roll from there. I could bet off it. I could hedge off it. I could do whatever I want. Now, 10-1 is gone on Notre Dame.”

OSU 34, ND 23 — Ohio State beat Notre Dame 34-23 in the CFP National Championship on Jan 20, 2025, so Notre Dame did not win the national title (ESPN final score).

“I took four and a half”

Boise State 21, UNLV 7 — Boise State beat UNLV 21-7 in the Mountain West Championship; UNLV lost by 14, busting the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).

“I bet over 49.5”

Georgia 22, Texas 19 — Georgia beat Texas 22-19 in OT in the SEC Championship; the combined 41 points fell under the 49.5 total (ESPN box score).

“I bet five-and-a-half”

Vikings 42, Falcons 21 — Vikings beat Falcons 42-21; Atlanta lost by 21, busting the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).

“yeah, I laid three and a half”

Rams 44, Bills 42 — Rams beat Bills 44-42; Buffalo lost outright, busting the -3.5 spread (ESPN box score).

• Oregon Ducks moneyline won
• Buffalo Bills moneyline lost

“Oregon to win, Bills to win, plus 145”

Oregon 45, Penn State 37; Rams 44, Bills 42 — Parlay busts: Oregon beat Penn State 45-37 to win the Big Ten Championship (leg won), but the Rams beat the Bills 44-42 (Buffalo moneyline leg lost) (ESPN box scores).

• Oregon Ducks won
• Buffalo Bills lost

“So we love BetMGM. Everybody knows that. I don't love BetMGM's Moneyline price on Oregon, which is minus 185 right now. So let's go to a different place and just build a parlay. there's Oregon minus 170. I'm going to check that box and check the Buffalo bills money line, which let's understand is a lot cheaper now, given the fact that the line has moved from four and a half to four to three and a half cheap is the money line. A bills and Oregon money line parlay right now is plus one 50.”

Parlay busts: Oregon beat Penn State 45-37 (won leg), but Buffalo lost 44-42 to the Rams on a late touchdown (lost leg) (ESPN).

“I'm also going to play Miami of Ohio. I agree with Reed Wallach. That's a really, really good defense. And I've watched admittedly too much Maction this year. They are mean, physical, awesome in the trenches. I've seen Miami, Ohio shut down a lot of attacks in that Mac. So you can lay, let's call it two. Some books have one and a half, but you could easily find it two, minus 110. I'll go, Gerch, I'll go Green Bay plus three and a half, and I'll go Miami, Ohio. That's a Saturday game at Ford Field. Miami, Ohio minus two”

Ohio 38, Miami (OH) 3 — Ohio routed Miami (OH) 38-3 to win the MAC Championship on Dec 7, 2024; Miami (OH) lost by 35, failing to cover -2 (ESPN).

“[37:49] Yeah, I bet it at 10.5.”

Georgia 31-17 Tennessee — Georgia beat Tennessee 31-17; Tennessee lost by 14, more than the +10.5 line, so the bet busts (ESPN final score).

“[40:35] Yeah, I gave seven.”

Dolphins 34-19 Raiders — Miami beat Las Vegas 34-19; the Raiders lost by 15, more than the +7 line, so the bet busts (ESPN final score).

• Kansas City Chiefs +8.5
• Cincinnati Bengals +7.5

“[42:13] KC plus eight and a half. [42:15] Cincinnati plus seven and a half.”

Bills 30-21 Chiefs; Chargers 34-27 Bengals — Two-team teaser: Buffalo beat Kansas City 30-21, so Chiefs +8.5 lost by 9, more than the adjusted line, busting the teaser even though the Chargers beat Cincinnati 34-27 and Bengals +7.5 covered by covering within 7.5 (ESPN final scores).

“[43:13] Anything north of 5, 5 1⁄2.”

Eastern Washington 77-42 Idaho State — Eastern Washington beat Idaho State 77-42; Idaho State lost by 35, far more than the +5.5 line, so the bet busts (ESPN final score).

“It won't be popular, but I went under 54 and a half.”

53-31 — Miami beat Duke 53-31 (ESPN gameId 401635601), an 84-point combined total, well over 54.5.

“So, you know, the Sharps came in, they took eight. By the time I got to it, it was seven and a half. So that's the current market number. Missed the eight, but anything over seven, I like with Sparty.”

47-10 — Indiana routed Michigan State 47-10 (ESPN gameId 401628534), a 37-point margin exceeding +7.5.

“Usually, Nick, as you know, I take the dog. I take three-and-a-half. I take four. This total is super high in the mid-60s. Weird things happen in Vegas, man, on a Friday night. You know that. We've been to Vegas together. I like the three-and-a-half.”

29-24 — Boise State beat UNLV 29-24, a 5-point margin, so UNLV +3.5 did not cover (ESPN final).

“I like the over. I think it's, like I said, I think it's Ohio State 42, and at that point Nebraska needs seven. That's it. I'm over. I'm over 48 and a half.”

17-21 — Ohio State beat Nebraska 21-17 (combined 38 points), under the 48.5 total (ESPN final).

“I like Wisconsin a lot, plus six and a half.”

28-13 — Penn State beat Wisconsin 28-13, a 15-point margin, so Wisconsin +6.5 did not cover (ESPN final).

“I took 10 and a half. You can take 10 right now. Carolina with the Bryce Young boost, maybe. This number is just too high, man.”

14-28 — Denver beat Carolina 28-14, a 14-point margin, so Panthers +10.5 did not cover (ESPN final).

“[1:18:53] or plus 135 we're betting against princeton basically that's tonight friday october 18th [1:19:00] seven o'clock eastern kickoff yeah you can get plus 130 plus 135 so let's just do brown money [1:19:06] line”

Princeton 29, Brown 17 — Princeton beat Brown 29-17 on Oct 18, 2024; Brown's moneyline loses (ESPN box score).

“[1:24:36] And I'm like, oh, okay. [1:24:37] I'll bet Alabama. [1:24:38] I'll lay some three.”

TENN 24, ALA 17 — Tennessee beat Alabama 24-17 on Oct 19, 2024; Alabama lost outright by 7, failing to cover -3 (ESPN box score).

“[1:26:05] So it's nice to see that. [1:26:07] I'm taking three. [1:26:08] I think Miami wins the game outright.”

IND 16, MIA 10 — Indianapolis lost to Miami 16-10 on Oct 20, 2024; Miami's -6 margin fails to cover +3 (ESPN box score).

“[1:27:55] If you can get a two and a half, please lay the two and a half.”

GB 24, HOU 22 — Green Bay beat Houston 24-22 on Oct 20, 2024; Green Bay's 2-point margin fails to cover -2.5 (ESPN box score).

“[1:19:49] So I took 14-and-a-half.”

TEX 34, OU 3 — Texas beat Oklahoma 34-3; Oklahoma +14.5 lost by 31 points, busting the spread (ESPN).

“[1:21:49] I did lay some two with Rutgers, and now you can actually lay a little cheaper price.”

WIS 42, RUTG 7 — Wisconsin beat Rutgers 42-7; Rutgers -2 lost outright, busting the spread (ESPN).

“[1:23:52] what i already liked on ohio state minus the three”

ORE 32, OSU 31 — Oregon beat Ohio State 32-31; Ohio State -3 won by only 1 (actually lost outright), busting the spread (ESPN).

“[1:26:24] and took jacksonville like plus two it's one right now i i picked money line i think they're going to [1:26:29] win the game”

CHI 35, JAX 16 — Bears beat Jaguars 35-16; Jaguars moneyline busts (ESPN).

“[1:27:30] Pats plus seven.”

HOU 41, NE 21 — Texans beat Patriots 41-21; Patriots +7 lost by 20, busting the spread (ESPN).

“[1:28:06] know something like that under 35 and a half”

LAC 23, DEN 16 — Chargers beat Broncos 23-16, combined 39 points; Under 35.5 busts (ESPN).

“[1:19:00] did bet a bad number which I hate to admit but I have the Bucs favored in the game Atlanta has been [1:19:06] so good 20 to 20 but then 20 to goal line has been horrendous um more importantly 10 to goal line [1:19:13] and five to goal line they get to the three and then they go all right let's put our quarterback [1:19:17] with a bat achilles we'll put him in the shotgun at the six and then we'll run a wide receiver sweep [1:19:22] and it just i don't know what they're doing they didn't score an offensive touchdown last week [1:19:27] it's uh it's kind of weird there maybe uh arthur smith has left some of the remnants of [1:19:33] a brain matter down there in terms of how to not score inside the five or inside the 10. So I like [1:19:39] Tampa. I took one and a half and you can get a better number right now. And to Sam's point,”

36-30 — Atlanta beat Tampa Bay 36-30 in overtime; the Buccaneers' 6-point loss fails to cover the +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).

“[1:20:29] is catching north of two touchdowns. Most people I'm close to said, don't do it. Okay, I did it. [1:20:36] I took over 14 and a half. I took 15 about 10 minutes ago. They make the quarterback change. [1:20:42] DJU is gone again. Another benching, which is not really that surprising. So they go to the [1:20:49] freshman who should give them a spark and should get rid of the ball quicker. But it's just a power [1:20:54] rating thing for me. I don't have Clemson, you know, 13 points better on a neutral field. I don't. [1:21:01] Say what you want about the home field at Florida State. It doesn't feel like it's as strong [1:21:04] because the team isn't as good, but it's still at least three and a half, four points. [1:21:11] So I think this game should be closer to 10. I was happy to take, well, maybe not happy to take. [1:21:16] I did take Florida State plus 15, and if they lose by 28, we'll just, we'll move on. But this”

29-13 — Clemson beat Florida State 29-13; the Seminoles' 16-point loss fails to cover the +15 spread (ESPN box score).

“[1:21:51] We shorting offense which again won be popular because Indiana has scored in the 40s and 50s and 70s this year So you look at the total and go hmm why is it 42 Well because a lot of people don know Northwestern new temporary field is basically in Lake Michigan [1:22:10] It's right there, and there's nothing to block the wind. [1:22:14] So they've got this forecast heading into Saturday in Evanston, [1:22:18] 20-mile-an-hour winds. [1:22:19] Not exactly the worst temperature-wise, [1:22:22] but Indiana's going to be throwing footballs that just get blown into oblivion. [1:22:27] and that's going to slow their attack down. [1:22:29] And they also, guys, they don't need to win this game by a million points. [1:22:33] Northwestern can't score. [1:22:35] Northwestern's going to punt from the Indiana 30 because they don't have a kicker. [1:22:39] It's going to be field position, Indiana get in, get out, win 24-7 or 27-10. [1:22:46] You're going to have to sweat it because it's a low total, 41.5 now at BetMGM. [1:22:50] But I like the under here. [1:22:52] This was 42 yesterday. [1:22:53] I think it's going to come a little bit lower. [1:22:55] And once we see those flags whipping on television, [1:22:58] that under is going to come a little bit lower. [1:23:00] So I'm going to bet the wind can go under between Indy and Northwestern.”

41-24 — Indiana beat Northwestern 41-24; the combined 65 points is well over the 41.5 total (ESPN box score).

“[1:23:09] Sammy, your thoughts on Miami laying 10 and a half at Cal, [1:23:13] just like the weird landscape of college football being what it is. [1:23:16] Miami maybe should have lost last week against Virginia Tech [1:23:18] with the Hail Mary at the end of the game. [1:23:20] And then Wisconsin coming off the second half demolition at the hands of USC, [1:23:23] laying two touchdowns against Purdue. [1:23:26] So Miami and Cal, Wisconsin and Purdue, [1:23:28] what do you have in those two? [1:23:30] You asked me last Friday about Miami [1:23:32] because you know I'm big on the U this year, big picture. [1:23:34] I was never laying 17, 18 against Virginia Tech. [1:23:38] But I will lay it here because last week [1:23:40] and the result on Friday was a result [1:23:43] that Miami's never gotten under Mario Cristobal. [1:23:47] So the fact that they survived that game, win that game, [1:23:51] they're going to go into Cal and be unfazed. [1:23:53] there's this new life that, hey, we can win these games that we never win. [1:23:57] And I think they can just boat race Cal. [1:23:59] Wilcox has been good against Mario in the past, [1:24:01] but this is the most talented team Miami's ever had. [1:24:04] And now you've got their focus because you almost beat them last week, [1:24:07] Virginia Tech. [1:24:08] And then as for Wisconsin, I think Purdue is about to wave the white flag.”

39-38 — Miami beat Cal 39-38; Miami's 1-point win fails to cover the -10.5 spread (ESPN box score).

“[1:25:13] right now at 43 and a half over at bet mgm i'm on your side here to be fair though nick was on [1:25:18] washington sunday and he said don't call me nick call me joe and then jayden daniels went out and [1:25:24] did it again injury report has been good for cleveland uh looks like they got a couple linemen [1:25:29] back today at practice on the offensive side which is good and i believe we're going to get [1:25:34] some resistance from a defense against a rookie quarterback it hasn't happened a lot in jayden [1:25:39] Daniels career when you face Cincinnati and Arizona, but Cleveland by nature is going to [1:25:43] muck this game up. And I'm just, I'm not there. I'm not laying points with Washington. I'm also [1:25:49] not going to lay points with Denver. It's not an anti-Jaden Daniels thing or an anti-Bo Nix thing. [1:25:54] It's just, you're going to have adversity at some point in these careers. And it can't just be, [1:25:58] I'm going to complete 82% of my passes every single game for Jaden Daniels. I took three. [1:26:04] I couldn't pull money line, although I thought about it.”

34-13 — Washington beat Cleveland 34-13; the Browns' 21-point loss fails to cover the +3 spread (ESPN box score).

• Green Bay Packers won
• Cincinnati Bengals lost

“[1:28:16] tell you on this what's the two team money line parlay that you've got for sunday in the nfl only [1:28:20] have 30 seconds yeah just keep going against the Rams to take the Packers to win the game and then [1:28:25] we take a dog to pump up the price we take the Bengals nobody wanted to bet the Ravens on Sunday [1:28:31] night but now you all want to bet them this Sunday that's not how the NFL works we're going to take [1:28:36] the Bengals and we're going to parlay them with the Packers at plus 245 all right so allow me to”

Green Bay won (leg wins) but Baltimore beat Cincinnati 41-38 in overtime (Bengals moneyline leg loses), so the two-team moneyline parlay busts (ESPN box scores). (Packers won 24-19; Bengals lost 38-41)

“[1:35:01] on north carolina but i i think i think the wrong team is favored so um i took some two and a half [1:35:07] also some money line on the heels if they give up 70 again i'll never bet on the rest of the season”

DUKE 21, UNC 20 — Duke beat North Carolina 21-20; the Tar Heels lost outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).

“[1:37:32] It is Holy Cross at Syracuse. [1:37:35] This total has come up a little bit. [1:37:37] It's not really up at a lot of books. [1:37:38] It was 56-1⁄2 on Wednesday. [1:37:41] It's now about 57-1⁄2. [1:37:43] We're going to play it tomorrow.”

SYR 42, HC 14 — Syracuse beat Holy Cross 42-14, a combined 56 points, under the 57.5 total (ESPN box score).

“[1:40:41] Arizona is my squad this year. [1:40:42] I'm a little biased because I've got some Kyler Murray [1:40:45] to win the MVP at 55-1. [1:40:47] Is that going to happen? [1:40:47] Probably not.”

Josh Allen won the 2024 AP NFL MVP award, not Kyler Murray, so this MVP futures bet lost. (2024 AP NFL MVP: Josh Allen)

“[1:40:56] But I took three. [1:40:57] This is coming off three in a lot of places. [1:41:00] Not going to be popular here because I think people are going to expect [1:41:03] Detroit to bounce back, but I'm not so sure. [1:41:07] I think Arizona's going to have the ball last in a rollercoaster game, [1:41:11] like a 35-31 type final. [1:41:13] Like some points and do like the Cardinals plus three.”

ARI 13, DET 20 — Lions beat Cardinals 20-13; Arizona's -7 margin busts +3.

“[1:47:01] I'm with you on the Lions, guys. [1:47:03] You know, a lot of people tell you if you do Survivor, you've got to save the Lions for Thanksgiving. [1:47:09] And I'm thinking to myself, I'm 35 years old. [1:47:12] The Lions have ruined probably 20 Thanksgivings in my life because of gambling. [1:47:17] You think I'm going to save the Lions for that holiday? [1:47:19] They ruined Thanksgiving last year for people. [1:47:23] People were saving the Lions for last year, and they lost to the Packers. [1:47:26] Don't save teams for Thanksgiving when they're called the Detroit Lions.”

Buccaneers 20, Lions 16 — Tampa Bay beat Detroit 20-16, so the Lions survivor pick lost (ESPN box score).

“[1:48:22] Now about a 23-and-a-half point favorite against Arkansas State this weekend. [1:48:26] What are you doing with Michigan and Arkansas State? [1:48:30] I'm prepared for more pain. [1:48:31] We were sitting in the book last week. [1:48:33] We had 7-and-a-half. [1:48:35] It was over in the second quarter. [1:48:37] But this number is coming down. [1:48:39] It's crazy to me. [1:48:40] It's like 22-and-a-half at that MGM right now, [1:48:42] and I was loving anything under 24. [1:48:45] Isn't this the game we all know? [1:48:47] Like, if you were on Michigan last week, [1:48:48] it's going to be hard for you to swallow this again the following week. [1:48:52] Arkansas State's not going to move the ball. [1:48:54] So, yeah, Michigan got smoked last week, [1:48:57] but that was against maybe a top two or top three team in the country. [1:49:02] How is Arkansas State going to move the ball on that defense? [1:49:05] This is a get-right spot. [1:49:06] It's a medicine spot. [1:49:08] You don't want to bet it. [1:49:09] I get it. [1:49:10] But you know you're going to look up Saturday afternoon, [1:49:12] and Michigan will have won 38-7. [1:49:14] Like, it's just going to happen.”

Michigan 28, Arkansas State 18 — Michigan beat Arkansas State 28-18; Michigan (-22.5) won by only 10, missing the cover (ESPN box score).

“[1:50:41] Sammy, let's go outside the Big Ten here. [1:50:43] What do you like in this game between Wyoming and BYU with the Cowboys getting a little more than 10 against the Cougs? [1:50:52] Yeah, it's important to get the right number. [1:50:54] There's some 10.5 in the market. [1:50:55] There's some 9.5 in the market. [1:50:57] And I don't need to tell you and Femi the difference between 9.5 and 10.5. [1:51:01] You know, on chicken dinner, I give these bets out earlier in the week, [1:51:04] and we were able to get a really good number at 11.5. [1:51:07] That's long gone. [1:51:08] But anything north of 10 is fair. [1:51:10] Wyoming does have issues in their backfield their star running back is hurt but BYU also [1:51:16] has two running backs hurt and this is the second straight road game for the Cougars they played a [1:51:21] really good one last week against SMU now they got to get back up go to Laramie it never easy to travel to Laramie there always like flight delays and you getting circled around the mountains and all that stuff It just a weird spot to go in and lay that many points And Nick my number on BYU in the summer was Wyoming getting two at home [1:51:39] Now they're getting ten and a half. [1:51:41] It's just the adjustment is insane. [1:51:43] This line opened a week ago. [1:51:46] It opened eight. [1:51:47] And anything north of ten, I just can't do it. [1:51:50] You also have a total of 39 and a half. [1:51:52] I love getting double digits when you have a total in the high 30s because you don't need much. [1:51:57] You need like 17 points, and you're probably going to get home. [1:52:01] You better you bet here on a phenomenal football Friday.”

BYU 34, Wyoming 14 — BYU beat Wyoming 34-14; Wyoming (+10.5) lost by 20, missing the cover (ESPN box score).

“[1:56:47] And, B, how are you betting this Pairs game at the Texans on Sunday Night Football this week? [1:56:53] I will take responsibility. [1:56:55] I will wear that one. [1:56:56] I had to get the hell out of there, though. [1:56:58] I needed to leave. [1:56:59] You know, it was way too early on that Sunday in Vegas. [1:57:02] I needed to get home. [1:57:03] Then I flew to Florida on Monday night, which was insanity. [1:57:06] and now I'm going to Houston tomorrow morning. [1:57:08] It's like I'm where's Waldo right now, and that's my own fault. [1:57:12] Bears, unbelievable cover last week. [1:57:14] 99.9% of the time the Titans cover that game. [1:57:17] But, hey, that's gambling. [1:57:19] This total, to me, is going the wrong way. [1:57:22] I was going to bet anything 47 or less, I was going to bet the over. [1:57:27] Because if there's one thing we learned about Tennessee, [1:57:29] that defense is a lot better, guys. [1:57:31] We saw it last week. [1:57:32] I mean, their defense was very good. [1:57:34] Their offense, horrible. [1:57:35] Will Levis, probably for the CFL next year, probably playing there. [1:57:39] But I think this Texans defense, I mean, Anthony Richardson moved the ball at will [1:57:43] against this defense with Houston. [1:57:47] So, look, and I also think the Bears defense is so overrated right now. [1:57:52] Oh, great defense. [1:57:53] No, you played against Will Levis. [1:57:55] Now you've got to face C.J. Stroud. [1:57:57] I think the Texans get to 28-31. [1:58:00] And then at that point, I need only 17 from the Bears. [1:58:02] If you're looking at a total right now, 45 at multiple shops in the market. [1:58:07] Bears overrated on defense. [1:58:09] Caleb Williams is going to have an easier day, believe it or not, [1:58:11] against that Houston secondary, which is very overrated. [1:58:14] And, look, this could very easily be 31-20, 34-17. [1:58:20] We also get Sunday Night Football reps. [1:58:22] Flag, flag, flag, flag, flag, flag, flag. [1:58:25] P-I-P-I, defensive holding all night. [1:58:27] Get these guys into the end zone. [1:58:29] We're going to see some fireworks in Houston on Sunday. [1:58:31] so Sammy likes the over in the game what I take from that is like not I don't disagree necessarily”

Texans 19, Bears 13 — Houston beat Chicago 19-13 (32 combined points), staying under the 45 over (ESPN box score).

“[34:34] together i think we're on the same side of it michigan and texas from the big house my friend [34:39] Michigan, a seven, seven and a half point dog. [34:41] What are we like here, Sam? [34:42] Texas and Michigan. [34:44] I took seven and a half on Tuesday. [34:46] We've talked about this all week on the show in the morning and, you know, [34:50] off season numbers closer to Texas one going back to February, March in the [34:55] summer, it's Texas three, Texas pounds a bad team. [34:59] Everybody gets excited. [35:00] Their national title. [35:01] Good. [35:01] Blah, blah, blah. [35:02] And Michigan didn't really do much against Fresno. [35:04] So this number reopens five and gets blasted through seven. [35:08] and I thought it's never going to get to eight, and I make the game free. [35:11] I think Michigan is going to do some stuff in this game that nobody sees coming. [35:16] You know, they were very vanilla. [35:18] They ran the ball. [35:19] They didn't show you much. [35:20] I think we're going to get a flea flicker or a reverse pass [35:22] or some crazy stuff that they've been saving for this game, [35:26] and I need that building to be alive early. [35:28] So perfect world, of course, for me is to get Michigan to go up 7-0. [35:32] I'm Donovan Edwards rolling over a linebacker, [35:34] get into the end zone, play good defense. [35:36] I think this is 23-20. [35:38] Texas prevails, but Michigan on the D-line is very good. [35:42] And I think Texas won't be able to push Michigan around. [35:45] Oh, I know that, like they did against Colorado State. [35:48] So I am on the dog that nobody wants to bet in terms of market, [35:52] because this is Texas basically from everybody to get this from five over seven. [35:57] Oh, I'll be with you on Michigan.”

Texas 31, Michigan 12 — Texas beat Michigan 31-12, a 19-point margin that blew through Michigan's +7.5 (ESPN box score).

“[36:11] What do you make of the fighting Deons of Colorado taking on Matt Rule and Nebraska? [36:17] Cornhuskers about 7, 7.5 point favorite total in the high 50s. [36:21] I've done my best to not get emotional betting Deon, [36:24] although I did laugh last year when they were giving me 24.5 against Colorado State. [36:28] They should have won that game outright, the Rams. [36:31] That would have been a nice day for your boy. [36:33] But in power rating speak only, I've got Colorado at a 112.5 and Nebraska at a 110. [36:40] So on a neutral, I've got Colorado almost three points better. [36:44] You're telling me that Lincoln's worth 10 points? [36:46] Home field? [36:47] No shot. [36:48] I like this kid at quarterback for Nebraska, but what he does against UTEP and what he's [36:52] going to do against Colorado is a little bit different. [36:55] This is going to be a back and forth game. [36:56] Colorado's offense was really, really solid for stretches last week. [37:00] And here's the reality. [37:01] I had Paul Stone on chicken dinner last night, and he dropped this on my head. [37:05] The dog in Colorado games when Deion's there is 10-3 ATS. [37:10] That's a nice supplementary stat for you, meaning Colorado, when they're favored, [37:14] they let you hang around. [37:16] And when they're the dog, maybe aside from the Oregon game last year, [37:19] they keep it close. [37:20] So I was happy. [37:21] I took 7.5, and, you know, that got blasted this morning when we were on the air [37:25] from 7.5 through the 7. [37:27] So you got to get these numbers when they're ripe and when they're ready for you.”

Nebraska 28, Colorado 10 — Nebraska beat Colorado 28-10, an 18-point margin that blew through Colorado's +7.5 (ESPN box score).

“[39:14] And where are you at here? [39:15] You're a Chicago guy and your new guy, Caleb Williams and the Bears as they host the Tennessee Titans. [39:20] I heard Caleb is going to the Hall of Fame and that exciting He hasn played a game yet but I hear they have the bus already created I think he going to be just fine over time But if you think I laying three and a half with the Bears in the spot you are out of your mind [39:34] Tennessee actually, and I know you have talked about this on your guys' show, [39:38] Tennessee has rejoined the 21st century, Nick. [39:42] They got rid of old-ass Derrick Henry and Mike Rabel, who would punt [39:46] from your 30. They're going to play aggressive now. They have an offensive [39:50] coach they're going to air things out ryan callahan comes from the bill callahan tree [39:54] the old line's going to be better the receivers are better they're going to play [39:58] up tempo and that's going to be a little surprising i think for chicago [40:02] caleb williams is going to want to be a guy that's going to want to slow the game down but he's going [40:07] to want to play fast because he's a rookie and he's never been here before i made this game bears [40:12] 21 titans 20 i think this should be close to a pick-em the fact that we're getting three and a [40:17] half is just silly to me. I mean, a rookie quarterback hasn't won in week one since 2002. [40:24] And that's a long, long list of guys. So this gets good. I think the scheme could be good down the [40:30] road, but this, this bears hype is too much. And I'm a bears guy. I'm not laying three and a half. [40:36] I took the point. So betting against the bears and Caleb Williams, the first overall pick in”

Chicago 24, Tennessee 17 — Chicago beat Tennessee 24-17, a 7-point margin that beat the Titans' +3.5 (ESPN box score).

“[1:33:51] So I can give you the bet on Friday and then we don't blast it until Saturday. [1:33:56] Unfortunately, today I got the order at 852 right before my show at nine that said we are betting Kansas over. [1:34:03] So when the show started, Joe welcomed us in and I said, I don't want to be that guy, but bet this Kansas total right now because it's going to move. [1:34:12] And I could see Joe betting it. [1:34:14] I could hear Jake Hassan betting it in his little closet in Chicago. [1:34:17] Paul was betting it. [1:34:18] Segment ended. [1:34:21] Segment ended. [1:34:22] The total was 60. [1:34:23] Show ended. [1:34:24] It was 62.”

Kansas 48, Lindenwood 3 — Kansas beat Lindenwood 48-3, 51 combined points under the 60-point total (ESPN box score).

“[1:37:36] I never play road favorites for the most part, [1:37:39] but I just happen to love Miami this season. [1:37:41] Now, a little biased here. [1:37:42] I've got them to make the playoff before the season started, [1:37:45] before Florida State lost, rather. [1:37:47] It was plus 250 down to two and a quarter.”

Miami was left out of the 12-team 2024-25 College Football Playoff field (Wikipedia). (Miami: not selected for 2024 CFP)

“[1:41:40] Any bets in that game? [1:41:43] Tom Herman was outstanding. [1:41:44] Remember when he was at these smaller schools 10, 15 years ago, [1:41:49] not only covering as a dog, but winning as a dog. [1:41:53] I took a little plus 470 earlier in the week. [1:41:56] Now that's a smaller bet.”

Michigan State 16, Florida Atlantic 10 — Michigan State defeated Florida Atlantic 16-10, moneyline busts (ESPN box score).

“[4:36] Houston in the NFC it's Chicago I'm not looking to necessarily like fade them blindly but at plus [4:43] 165 bet MGM to miss the playoffs I think that's a tremendous bet given the price and look they're”

Houston clinched the AFC South and made the 2024-25 NFL playoffs at 10-7, so the 'miss the playoffs' bet lost (NFL.com). (Houston Texans: 10-7, AFC South champions)

“[11:49] Oh, yeah. I bet Jaxson Dart at 16-1 about a month ago.”

Travis Hunter won the 2024 Heisman Trophy on Dec 14, 2024; Jaxson Dart did not win (Heisman.com official announcement). (2024 Heisman winner: Travis Hunter)

“[14:21] Good luck going against Kansas City in the playoffs. [14:23] Make the bet now, 6-1.”

40-22 — Philadelphia defeated Kansas City 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX on Feb 9, 2025; the Chiefs did not win the championship (ESPN box score).

“Carolina minus four in that first frame”

North Carolina 72-65 Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh led 35-33 at half) — Pittsburgh led North Carolina 35-33 at halftime of the ACC tournament semifinal (UNC won 72-65 overall), so North Carolina's first-half -4 spread did not cover (ESPN recap).

“I'm sitting on this Ohio State to win the Big Ten at 35-1.”

Illinois defeated Wisconsin to win the 2024 Big Ten men's basketball tournament championship; Ohio State did not win the tournament (ESPN).

“I bet nine and a half two days ago, and I feel good about nine and a half.”

28-0 at halftime (45-7 final) — Michigan led Nebraska 28-0 at halftime (45-7 final) on 9/30/2023; Nebraska +9.5 first-half needed to trail by less than 9.5 but trailed by 28 (ESPN box score).

“Either way, I'm not going to call my shot on the money line here, but I think the ability for Mac Jones to protect the football, as long as he doesn't turn it over, the Patriots should have every opportunity to hang inside 6.5. And the good part about 6.5 is that the back door doesn't close if you're down 10 or 13 late in this game. Dallas also stunk last week against Arizona, absolutely stunk. So I'm happy to take Belichick getting almost a full touchdown on the road against Mike McCarthy.”

38-3 — Cowboys beat Patriots 38-3 on 10/1/2023; New England lost outright, so Patriots +6.5 loses (ESPN box score).

“We're going to go over. There's a 58.5 on the board. I would play over to 60 or 61 between UC Davis and Cal Poly.”

31-13 — UC Davis beat Cal Poly 31-13 on 9/30/2023 (44 combined points); the over 58.5 total loses (ESPN box score).

“I was happy to take five.”

Kansas State 44, UCF 31 — Kansas State beat UCF 44-31 on 9/23/2023, a 13-point UCF margin that falls short of the +5 line (ESPN box score).

“And I think getting three and a half here is just great. It's a number for me.”

Cleveland 27, Tennessee 3 — Cleveland beat Tennessee 27-3 on 9/24/2023, a 24-point Titans margin that busts the +3.5 line (ESPN box score).

“Illinois is going to be weirdly sneaky in this game, and I'm going to take those 15.”

PSU 30-ILL 13 — Penn State beat Illinois 30-13, a 17-point margin that exceeds the +15 line, so Illinois +15 fails to cover (ESPN box score).

• Chicago Bears +8.5 teaser spread
• Buffalo Bills -2 teaser spread

“So, yeah, I'm happy to take Chicago from plus two and a half to plus eight and a half. and let's tease Buffalo down from eight to two.”

TB 27-17 CHI; BUF 38-10 LV — Teaser leg Chicago Bears +8.5 failed: Tampa Bay beat Chicago 27-17, a 10-point margin exceeding the teased 8.5 line, so the two-leg teaser loses even though Buffalo covered -2 by beating Las Vegas 38-10 (ESPN box scores).

“I took actually three and a half on Tuesday. I was able to get three and a half with the Huskers.”

COLO 36, NEB 14 — Colorado beat Nebraska 36-14 on Sep 9, 2023; Nebraska lost outright, so +3.5 does not cover (ESPN).

“I like the seven here, so I laid it.”

TEX 34, ALA 24 — Texas beat Alabama 34-24 on Sep 9, 2023; Alabama lost outright, so -7 does not cover (ESPN).

“you guys know I have McDaniel at 23-1 coach of the year.”

Cleveland Browns HC Kevin Stefanski was named the AP 2023 NFL Coach of the Year, not Mike McDaniel (NFL.com). (2023 AP Coach of the Year: Kevin Stefanski)

“Sub 10 is good. I laid nine, and you can still lay a nine. Mostly nine and a half, but anything under 10 is good to me.”

30-28 — Illinois beat Toledo 30-28 on a last-second field goal, a 2-point margin that fails to cover Illinois -9 (ESPN).

“I think Marvin Harrison Jr. at 20-1 is incredulous. He's maybe the best player in college football.”

LSU QB Jayden Daniels won the 2023 Heisman Trophy on Dec 9, 2023; Marvin Harrison Jr. finished 4th in voting (ESPN). (Jayden Daniels 1st; Marvin Harrison Jr. 4th)

“And MGM has given you over six at plus 110. That's my favorite total. It's not even funny. I love the Bulls this year.”

Buffalo finished the 2023 regular season 3-9, well under the 6-win line (Wikipedia team season page). (Buffalo 2023 regular-season wins: 3)

“The one Patriot bet that I've made is Rhamondre Stevenson to have double-digit touchdowns. That's passing and receiving. It's plus 150.”

Rhamondre Stevenson finished the 2023 regular season with 4 rushing touchdowns and 0 receiving touchdowns (4 total), short of the 10+ needed (ESPN stats). (4 rush TD, 0 rec TD (4 total))

“Sam, I know you've got a little baseball for us, because I asked you if you have any baseball for us. And you just made a bet, a futures bet, in the National League. And I really like this bet based on the expectations for this team coming into the year. Tell us the future bet you just made, please, in Major League Baseball. Yeah, well, quickly on that Celtics point, say the Celtics are the home team in that Eastern Conference Final, and you have the Celtics at two and a quarter, you could just take the dog and free roll it. I mean, you could do that if you make the Celtics East bet. But San Diego before the season was like the sexiest team in baseball. You know, they were 8-9-10-1 to win the World Series. So if you half that, they're 5-1, give or take, to win the pennant. And they didn't play well early. They are still sort of treading water. They're 5-5 in their last 10. But if you look at the last 10 games, I mean, they've been favored in eight of them. And they're just over the 100-game mark. They've got 60 games left to go. How many games are they going to be favored in? That's my question. Because you could throw a flyer on a team like, you know, the Indians or the Guardians, whatever, to make the playoffs. You could throw a flyer on the Red Sox to make the playoffs. But those teams aren't really that good, and they're not going to be favored a lot. If I map out the next 60 games or so on San Diego, they're favored 45 times, probably minimum. And the talent is there. We know Juan Soto's a closer. We know guys like Bogarts and Machado and them, they're second-half players. The pitching staff is almost fully healthy. And, you know, a team that was 5-1 to win the pennant before the season is now 25-1 to win the pennant. And that NL West is not great. I mean, the Dodgers are a really good baseball team. But, I mean, the Giants are kind of phonies. The Cardinals or the Diamondbacks are young. And the Rockies blow. Like, there's a path for San Diego to be a wild-card team, and if that's the case, when we saw the Phillies last year, they were a wild-card team. They went to the World Series. You just got to get in. And I can bet San Diego six-and-a-half back with 60 games to go, they're going to be favored, again, 40, 45 times. They get in, they can win a series, and then I'm holding 25-1. So you want to bet a team with potential at a good number, and there aren't many better in terms of futures than San Diego. They could fall flat. They might not make the playoffs. But I'm going to take a shot on them making it and then seeing what happens.”

The Arizona Diamondbacks won the 2023 National League pennant, defeating the Philadelphia Phillies 4-2 in the NLCS; San Diego did not make the postseason as pennant winner (MLB.com).