Miami Heat to win the Eastern Conference (+1600)
“Well, I took Heat to win the East at plus 1600. How could you not, right? Like the thing that the Heat do is the same every year. Like the blueprint for them, they don't care about the regular season. They load manage Jimmy Butler, which is like one of the worst kept secrets in the NBA. And it's just a different thing. Like NBA in the regular season is very different than NBA in the playoffs. And the Heat are built for this. They've made the conference finals in three or four years, even though they're the five seed. and the eighth seed. They're better this year than last year. They have Terry Rozier. They've got a healthy Tyler Hero. And if they play the Bucs, I think it's a wrap for the Bucs. If they play the Celtics, it's going to be a very tough test for the Celtics. I actually have a bet on the Sixers to win the East as well at plus 1,000 and plus 800. But in terms of value, I think the value is still on the Heat at 16 to 1. Because what, you've got a dynamic team and you got one of the best coaches, if not the best coach in the Eastern Conference in Eric Spolster. So for that, I say probably put a little bit of money on both of those teams, Sixers and Heat, because you don't know whether they're going to play, who's going to play the Celtics in round”
The Boston Celtics swept the Indiana Pacers 4-0 to win the 2024 Eastern Conference; Miami did not reach the conference finals (ESPN). (Eastern Conference champion: Boston Celtics (won series 4-0))
Philadelphia 76ers to win the Eastern Conference (+1000)
“If they play the Celtics, it's going to be a very tough test for the Celtics. I actually have a bet on the Sixers to win the East as well at plus 1,000 and plus 800. But in terms of value, I think the value is still on the Heat at 16 to 1. Because what, you've got a dynamic team and you got one of the best coaches, if not the best coach in the Eastern Conference in Eric Spolster. So for that, I say probably put a little bit of money on both of those teams, Sixers and Heat, because you don't know whether they're going to play, who's going to play the Celtics in round”
The Boston Celtics swept the Indiana Pacers 4-0 to win the 2024 Eastern Conference; Philadelphia did not reach the conference finals (ESPN). (Eastern Conference champion: Boston Celtics (won series 4-0))
Los Angeles Lakers moneyline
“My expectation for the Pelicans is that they're going to get smacked. Like, they're just soft. That's just period. That's what it is. That's just what it is. Like, this team's not the same without Brandon Ingram fully healthy. He's not, and we saw him on a minutes restriction yesterday. didn't last yesterday's game feel eerily similar to the play-in game as well or the in-season tournament game excuse me where they like get punched in the mouth Zion kind of looks like he's out of gas and they just couldn't recover and when the stakes are high LeBron James just wants it more it feels like a very square analysis but that's just what it is like the Pelicans lack focus they lack toughness they lack discipline I don't trust Brennan Ingram If CJ McCollum is your most consistent player, then you don't really have the most consistent player. I like the Lakers money line. I like the Lakers plus one and a half. And I also like, because if you like the Warriors to beat the Kings, which it sounds like you guys both do, then I also like the Warriors to win in a pick them against the Pelicans So then why not just take plus 340 for the Pelicans to miss the playoffs altogether That a bad idea I mean I think you look at these two teams and these two matchups”
LAL 110, NOP 106 — Los Angeles defeated New Orleans 110-106 in the play-in game (ESPN box score).
Los Angeles Lakers +1.5
“I like the Lakers plus one and a half.”
LAL 110, NOP 106 — Los Angeles beat New Orleans 110-106, a 4-point win that covered Lakers +1.5 (ESPN box score).
Miami Heat +4.5
“I'm assuming, Tristan, that you like the Heat catching the four and a half here, obviously.”
PHI 105, MIA 104 — Philadelphia beat Miami 105-104, a 1-point Heat loss that covered Miami +4.5 (ESPN box score).
Miami Heat moneyline
“And you just, like I said, I think Tyler Hero and Terry Rozier have good matchups as well. Like you're going to have a very undisciplined buddy healed. Buddy healed threes is like an interesting bet as well. But like in terms of the heat, yeah, like I love them. I love them catching points and I kind of like a money line as well. And then in terms of the Hawks and the Bulls, I just, I just like the Bulls a lot in this matchup.”
PHI 105, MIA 104 — Philadelphia defeated Miami 105-104; the Heat moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
Joel Embiid under 30.5 points
“Like, I love that, especially considering that Joel Embiid has retweaked his knee. So I also like Joel Embiid under 30 and a half.”
Joel Embiid scored 23 points against Miami, below his 30.5-point line (ESPN box score). (Embiid: 23 points)
Chicago Bulls moneyline
“And then in terms of the Hawks and the Bulls, I just, I just like the Bulls a lot in this matchup. Again, Trey Young's not healthy either. And I think that's kind of a common theme is like star players that aren't fully healthy and teams that are having this hard-o-try-hard mentality, which like nothing says try hard more than Billy Donovan deciding to give his team a 40 straight minutes so they could simulate a play in game against the team that absolutely wanted the two seed and the Knicks, right? DeRozan's point prop was like 16 and a half and he goes off for 30. So they take them to the brink and OT, they have three days off and they're going against the Hawks team. That's kind of happy to be there. I like Trae Young unders in the playoffs always. That's a common theme for me. Under 23 and a half minus 135. It's an alternate number. I like DeJounte Murray under 23 and a half as well. Hasn't hit this number against the Bulls in the last two years either. And I think the Bulls are just a very sneaky team against perimeter players. You've got Alex Caruso, who's probably going to be an all-defensive guy. And then you've got DeMar DeRozan, who is very physical as well. I think this is a sneaky good matchup for the Bulls, and they move on. I will definitely be taking the heat with the points on Wednesday night.”
CHI 131, ATL 116 — Chicago defeated Atlanta 131-116 in the play-in game (ESPN box score).
Trae Young under 23.5 points (-135)
“That's kind of happy to be there. I like Trae Young unders in the playoffs always. That's a common theme for me. Under 23 and a half minus 135. It's an alternate number. I like DeJounte Murray under 23 and a half as well. Hasn't hit this number against the Bulls in the last two years either. And I think the Bulls are just a very sneaky team against perimeter players.”
Trae Young scored 22 points against Chicago, below his 23.5-point line (ESPN box score). (Young: 22 points)
Dejounte Murray under 23.5 points
“Under 23 and a half minus 135. It's an alternate number. I like DeJounte Murray under 23 and a half as well. Hasn't hit this number against the Bulls in the last two years either. And I think the Bulls are just a very sneaky team against perimeter players. You've got Alex Caruso, who's probably going to be an all-defensive guy.”
Dejounte Murray scored 30 points against Chicago, above his 23.5-point line (ESPN box score). (Murray: 30 points)
Indiana Pacers +1.5 games (-180)
“yeah I think that there's a lot of value in taking some of these series prices and parlaying them together especially like I know it's minus 180 so you probably don't want to play it by itself but Pacers plus one and a half is is like a look for me also Pacers to win the series I kind of want better money than plus 140 for them to win the series so um but I think the Pacers make this competitive we saw them four to one against the Bucks this season and beat them by a ton in all of those games. They beat them by, I think, over double digits. So this is a tough matchup with Giannis because the Pacers are scoring in bunches and the defense just really hasn't come around consistently for the Bucs. But without Giannis, I'm not really sure who's protecting the paint. I think they're going to pull Brooke Lopez out to the three-point line with Myles Turner. And then I think it's going to be a scoring fest for the Pacers. So yeah, I like the Pacers in this matchup in a bunch of different ways. And then in terms of the Mavs, Again, like I have to see Kawhi in game one before I bet a series price.”
Indiana beat Milwaukee 4-2 in the first round, closing it out 120-98 in Game 6, covering Pacers +1.5 games (ESPN). (Pacers won series 4-2)
Orlando Magic to win the series (+165)
“Yeah, that's a great question. I like the Magics in general at plus 165 to win. I think that's probably, I don't think that's going to be a quick series, but I think I could see that going five. The Cavs just don't look like themselves at all. Remember they had that run where they went 19 and one. And after that, they just have been not very reliable. Donovan Mitchell, again, coming back from injury, soft tissue, and he hurt his, I think like a orbital bone in his face and still hasn't been right. And on top of that, like, let's be honest, does Donovan Mitchell really want to have a deep run and then say no to an extension for this team. So I like the magic. And then on top of that, I really, really like the Suns. I just don't think the Timberwolves have it. Anthony”
Cleveland defeated Orlando 4-3 in the first round, closing it out 106-94 in Game 7; Orlando did not win the series (ESPN). (Cavaliers won series 4-3)
Phoenix Suns to win the series
“And on top of that, like, let's be honest, does Donovan Mitchell really want to have a deep run and then say no to an extension for this team. So I like the magic. And then on top of that, I really, really like the Suns. I just don't think the Timberwolves have it. Anthony Edwards is terrible against the Suns. I think he averages 15 points per game. So I think the Suns are going to be pesky And if you like them to win the series I think there pretty good value there I do like the Suns And the Suns are a small favorite in this series coming up against the Minnesota Timberwolves Phoenix handling Minnesota yesterday to get out of the play And, I mean, yeah.”
Minnesota swept Phoenix 4-0 in the first round, closing it out 122-116 in Game 4; Phoenix did not win the series (ESPN). (Timberwolves won series 4-0)