Guest · 6-7 on settled picks
“[11:18] just a freak at QB and Herbert. I think this Chargers team is going to be awesome. I bet them [11:23] to win the Super Bowl quite heavily. [11:25] And I might be down in Hermosa Beach if they win, [11:28] living pretty comfortably comes February.”
“[16:12] I don't know why there's not more positivity about the Packers. [16:14] Their win totals come down a full win. [16:17] There's so many people have been betting the under. [16:18] I don't agree with that. [16:19] I'm with you. [16:20] I think the Packers have some upside. [16:22] And so I bet over nine and a half wins.”
“[22:19] So when you say regression, what does that mean? [22:22] Like, hey, they're not going to get back to the Super Bowl or they're not winning the division or I don't know that they're a wildcard team. [22:28] Well, they're not getting back to the Super Bowl. [22:29] I don't think they win the division. [22:31] I think they go under 10 and a half wins. [22:34] Wildcard team certainly in play. [22:35] That's how I would look at it. [22:36] But the bet would be under 10 and a half wins.”
“[1:47:33] I like the Colts plus three, minus 115. [1:47:36] Now that it's shown up today, I was kind of waiting on that to happen. [1:47:40] Everybody loves Houston. [1:47:41] To me, it's a very big adjustment from where we were just last year market rating-wise. [1:47:46] This is about a six-point move. [1:47:47] I get that Houston's improved. [1:47:49] I love the roster. [1:47:50] I love the team. [1:47:52] But this is just way too far, in my opinion. [1:47:54] This is a good six-point adjustment up for what the Texans have improved on. [1:47:59] And I think that's discrediting the Colts and what their offense is going to look like [1:48:03] with Richardson under center, with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. [1:48:07] This is going to be a dominant running game. [1:48:09] And the Houston Texans, one big weakness that they did not address in the offseason, [1:48:14] despite all these additions, is defending the run. [1:48:16] And so it's going to be Houston going into Indy, where I think the Colts, led by Shane Steichen, are going to get whatever they want early in the game. [1:48:23] If they can get out to a lead and they can keep running the football, I think they have a very good chance to win this game outright. [1:48:29] So to me, this number now after the move today has gone a little bit too far. [1:48:33] I like Indy here, plus three, minus 115. [1:48:36] Our first hashtag, gone too far of the football season, with Chern off there, backing the Indianapolis Colts at home against the Texans, but needs that number of three. [1:48:44] Chern, where do we stand right now? [1:48:46] Now, where do you stand with the Chiefs and the Ravens in the season opener? [1:48:49] Kansas City about minus 2.75. [1:48:51] AFC Championship game rematch this time at Arrowhead. [1:48:54] Total about 46.”
Texans 29, Colts 27 — Houston beat Indianapolis 29-27 on Sept 8, 2024; the Colts' 2-point loss covers +3 (ESPN box score).
“[1:54:57] I can't give the quick pick, but I'll give a quick pick on the over as we're looking at this game at 42. [1:55:02] I think we see the Atlanta Falcons' offense shift dramatically. [1:55:05] Way more passing than I think most people expect. [1:55:08] A lot more explosiveness. [1:55:09] And this really isn't a game with the Eagles and Chiefs on deck where the Falcons can take this conservatively. [1:55:15] I mean, if you lose this game at home, you're a new staff looking at 0-3, which would be a disaster scenario. [1:55:21] So this is a huge game for Atlanta at home. [1:55:24] I know Pittsburgh didn't show much in preseason. [1:55:27] I mean, they were running the triple option in the game where they played starters midway through the second quarter. [1:55:33] To me, that's Arthur Smith just not showing anything whatsoever. [1:55:36] So I have to think that we see a bit of a better effort out of the Steelers offense. [1:55:40] And it's such a short total that I'd look to the over, but no opinion for me on the side here. [1:55:45] I think at three minus 15, it's priced right. [1:55:47] It feels like there's consensus amongst some of the guests, some of like us here on the show in this Jaguars-Dolphins game on Sunday in South Florida on the over, which currently sits at 49 at BetMGM. [1:55:58] And me, at least, I like the Jacksonville Jaguars at a number greater than three against the Miami Dolphins. [1:56:04] What about Jacksonville and Miami for you? [1:56:07] I'd agree with the sentiment on the over at 49. [1:56:10] And this is another game with two new defensive coordinators making their debut. [1:56:14] It's not necessarily a Jags offense. [1:56:16] I think that will finish top 10, but I put the Dolphins firmly in that category of a top 10 offense at the end of the season. [1:56:22] Ryan Nielsen takes over for the Jags defense. [1:56:25] It's a night and day change. [1:56:27] We talk about big changes on offensive schemes a lot. [1:56:30] You want to talk about a big change on the defensive scheme. [1:56:32] This is going to be as drastic as it gets.”
Steelers 18, Falcons 10 (28 combined) — Pittsburgh and Atlanta combined for 28 points in an 18-10 Steelers win on Sept 8, 2024, staying under 42 (ESPN box score).
“[1:57:34] So to me, this is a game I like the over at 49. [1:57:39] We don't have to talk about it now, but Brian Thomas Jr. receiving yards number for that game, 41 and a half. [1:57:46] Just might be a touch low, Nick. [1:57:48] This might be. [1:57:50] Also, by the way, we don't have to talk about this game. [1:57:52] Malik Neighbors, 58 receptions, 5.5. [1:57:56] Might have 6 by halftime, just saying, with the Giants and the Minnesota Vikings turn. [1:58:01] Browns and Cowboys, I think a game that will probably inspire different thoughts, [1:58:05] different bets on both sides. [1:58:07] As we sit right now at BetMGM, Browns almost a full 3-point home favorite, [1:58:11] 2.5 minus 15 against Dak and the Cowboys. [1:58:13] Total a low, low, 41.5. [1:58:15] What about Cleveland and Dallas here? [1:58:17] in about 30 seconds, because I want to save time for your team on Monday Night Football. [1:58:23] Browns-Cowboys is the hardest game on the board to handicap. [1:58:25] I really would love to hear someone. [1:58:27] I'll be listening all week to the guys you have on to see if there's a case made, [1:58:30] but I can't get anywhere. [1:58:32] I have no idea what we're getting from Watson. [1:58:34] Browns have injuries. [1:58:35] I'm down on the Cowboys a lot, but I don't know what we're getting out of this Browns team, [1:58:42] and I would have no confidence laying that number. [1:58:44] So if it gets to three, I'll probably sign up for the Cowboys, [1:58:46] but it's a pass for me and a stay away at the moment. [1:58:49] All right.”
Dolphins 20, Jaguars 17 — Miami beat Jacksonville 20-17 on Sept 8, 2024; the combined 37 points stay under 49 (ESPN box score).
“I don't think as much as I would like it to happen that Bowers goes to the Jets. I think Jets offensive linemen at plus 120 is still the bet that I would make at the current prices because they really desperately need O-line depth that they just haven't had. And there's going to be plenty of opportunities in later rounds to add on different wide receivers. And so I don't think that Alt is as guaranteed as it is seemingly being at seven. I don't think Bowers is nearly as guaranteed as it's made out to be at number 10 as well. So I think Jets O-line of all those things that I just mentioned would be the look that I like the most. But let's see what Tennessee does at seven.”
The Jets used their first pick, No. 11 overall, on Penn State offensive tackle Olu Fashanu (New York Jets official site). (Jets Round 1 pick (No. 11 overall): OT Olu Fashanu)
“Yeah, I'm pretty adamant on defensive players over 10 and a half. And the reason I say that is because I think there's going to be such a run on these premium O-line and wide receivers in the first like 12 picks that we're going to see a lot of these very highly rated defensive players remain high and available on a lot of these boards for teams, and we might end up seeing teams in the mid to high 20s and even the low 30s see some of these defensive guys on the board and end up trading up into the high teens. And so I think because there's so many wide receivers that are going to be highly rated on day two, we see a premium on defensive guys late on Thursday. So that over 10 and a half for defensive players is a bet I like. I think realistically when you're looking at it, there could be as many as 13 on day one. I think 11 is the number that comes through, but I mean, you're looking at eight or nine guys that are, priced very high, like minus 600 and up to go day one, then you have all these fringe guys that are minus 250, minus 300, that gets you to like 12 or 13 guys that could potentially go. So I think defensive players over 10 and a half would be kind of my stance with a lot of these teams late on Thursday looking defense”
Nine defensive players (Latu, Murphy II, Turner, Verse, Robinson, Mitchell, Arnold, D. Robinson, Wiggins) were selected in Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft, under the 10.5 line (Wikipedia 2024 NFL Draft results, corroborating the official round-by-round draft order). (Round 1 defensive players selected: 9)
“So happily I'll take the team total over here, 27.5.”
37-17 — Texans beat Jaguars 37-17 on 9/24/2023; Jacksonville's team total of 17 fell under the 27.5 over line (ESPN box score). (Jaguars scored 17)
“I'm going to regret this, but I have to trust Matt Canada does something positive and take the two and a half with the Steelers.”
PIT 23-18 LV — Steelers beat Raiders 23-18 on 9/24/2023; Pittsburgh's +5 margin covered the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I think the Colts win. I take them on the money line.”
31-20 — Indianapolis Colts beat the Houston Texans 31-20 on September 17, 2023, so the Colts moneyline pick won.
“Justin Watson, number 84 for the Chiefs. I think sneaky anytime touchdown scorer. He's like plus 475.”
Justin Watson finished the Lions' 21-20 win over the Chiefs with 2 catches for 45 yards and no touchdown (ESPN box score). (2 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TD)
“I'm on the other side here. I really like Denver. I like them at four. I like them at three and a half still.”
LV 17, DEN 16 — Raiders beat Broncos 17-16; Denver's -1 margin fell short of the -3.5 spread (ESPN).
“Cowboys at anything three and a half or better.”
DAL 40, NYG 0 — Cowboys blanked the Giants 40-0 in the season opener; Dallas's +40 margin easily covered the -3.5 spread (ESPN).
“consensus wise within the group the most confident opinion that we had enacted on was the falcons season long wins over eight and a half and we placed that back in like the early part of June. It's been a while by now. We had sort of went through all 32 teams collectively Everyone came up with their top list And the one team that was just consensus across the board was Falcons over Love Arthur Smith as a play caller I think he very underrated We think Ritter is not great, but we think he can be kind of in that 18 to 20 range for a quarterback, which is enough. I think the offensive piece is underrated overall. And then when you look at the schedule specifically, the first 11 weeks, it's only four games that are not against first-time starters or rookies. And so I know ease of schedules priced in to a lot of these win total markets, but we think the Falcon schedule can be historically easy and play way easier than it's listed. And so all of us across the board love the Falcons, very much myself included.”
Atlanta finished the 2023 regular season 7-10, falling short of over 8.5 wins (ESPN standings). (Atlanta Falcons: 7-10)
“We bet the Commanders under at six and a half.”
Washington finished the 2023 regular season 4-13, cashing under 6.5 wins (ESPN standings). (Washington Commanders: 4-13)