“Say less.”
Damien Woody
Analyst · 8-17 on settled picks
Bankroll
Last 10: 2-8 Net units over time, 1 unit staked per pick · 17 settled daysPicks
26 total · 1 pending“Yeah, I got like Aaron Rodgers, 34-plus pass attempts in this game.”
Aaron Rodgers attempted 33 passes vs. Houston, staying under the 34.5 line. (17/33, 146 yards, 1 INT in 30-6 Wild Card loss to Texans)
“Yeah, I got C.J. Stroud 20-plus attempts and completions in this game.”
C.J. Stroud completed 21 passes vs. Pittsburgh, clearing the 20.5 line. (21/32, 250 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT in 30-6 Wild Card win over Steelers)
“Yeah, I'm going to go to the MVP of the Pittsburgh Steelers offense, Kenneth Gainwell, 66 plus”
Kenneth Gainwell totaled 46 rushing+receiving yards (20 rush + 26 rec) vs. Houston, under the 66.5 line. (6 car, 20 yds rush; 4 rec, 26 yds — 46 total)
- Aaron Rodgers over 34.5 pass attempts
- C.J. Stroud over 20.5 completions
- Kenneth Gainwell over 66.5 rushing + receiving yards
“Look for hitting the mark featured parlay price at plus 455 odds.”
Featured parlay fails: Aaron Rodgers had only 33 pass attempts (under 34.5) and Kenneth Gainwell managed just 46 total yards from scrimmage (under 66.5); C.J. Stroud's 21 completions did clear 20.5, but all three legs were required. (Rodgers 33 att; Stroud 21 comp; Gainwell 46 total yds)
“D. Wood, we've got Aaron Rodgers. His total is 212.5 passing yards. You going over or under? I'm going under.”
PIT 28, MIA 15 — Aaron Rodgers: 224 passing_yards vs under 212.5; busts. (Aaron Rodgers: 224 passing_yards)
“DK Metcalf, 54.5 receiving yards, over or under. I'm going to go over. Listen, hell, they don't really have much anything else in the receiving game.”
PIT 28, MIA 15 — DK Metcalf: 55 receiving_yards vs over 54.5; covers. (DK Metcalf: 55 receiving_yards)
- Aaron Rodgers under 212.5 passing yards closed +218.5 · CLV -6 lost
- Tua Tagovailoa over 1.5 passing touchdowns pending
- DK Metcalf over 54.5 receiving yards closed +55.5 · CLV +1 won
“So, those are our picks. If you like them, they're a parlay. We put them together on the DraftKings Sportsbook app. Look for the over or under featured parlay priced at plus 1,200 odds.”
Parlay busts: Aaron Rodgers under 212.5 passing yards +212.5 — lost; Tua Tagovailoa over 1.5 passing touchdowns +1.5 — manual; DK Metcalf over 54.5 receiving yards +54.5 — won.
“I got the Ravens.”
BAL 30, DET 38 — Baltimore Ravens margin -8 vs line -4.5; busts.
“I'm going to go less with Baker Mayfield.”
Baker Mayfield threw 2 touchdown passes in Tampa Bay's 20-19 comeback win over Houston, over the 1.5 line. (Mayfield MNF: 25/38, 215 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT)
“Yeah I like Tampa Listen they going up against you know one of the best defense in the league but I think Baker Mayfield and company they find a way to win”
HOU 19, TB 20 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin +1 vs line -2.5; busts.
“One more.”
Dak Prescott threw 0 touchdown passes in the Cowboys' 24-20 Week 1 loss to Philadelphia, under 1.5. (Prescott Week 1: 21/34, 188 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT)
“D-Wood, we have the Super Bowl champion Eagles at 11 and a half wins. Are you going more or less? I want more.”
Eagles finished the 2025 season 11-6, under (not over) the 11.5 win total. (Eagles finished 11-6)
“I'm going to go more.”
Tua Tagovailoa threw exactly 2 passing touchdowns in the Thanksgiving loss to Green Bay, over the 1.5 line. (37/46, 365 yds, 2 TD)
“let's go to your old team, the Lions. They set the number at 10.5. You go more or less? I'm going to go more.”
Lions finished the 2024 regular season 15-2, clearing the 10.5 wins line. (DET 2024: 15-2)
“D. Wood, their total this year is 8.5 wins. Are you going more or less? I struggle with this one. I'm going to go less.”
Chicago Bears finished the 2024 season 5-12, well under the 8.5 win total. (5-12 record)
“And then, D, how about Green Bay? The number is 9.5 for the Packers. More or less? Yeah, I'm going to go more.”
Green Bay Packers finished the 2024 season 11-6, over the 9.5 win total. (11-6 record)
“D. Wood, the total on the Cowboys is 10.3 wins this season. You going more or less? I'm going to go more, because I think the schedule is favorable for the Cowboys.”
Dallas Cowboys finished the 2024 season 7-10, well under the 10.3 win total. (7-10 record)
“let's go, D. Wood, to Bo Nix, who was the last of those first-round quarterbacks. more or less 17 and a half touchdown passes in Denver. Yeah, I'm going to go with Les.”
Bo Nix threw 29 passing TDs as a rookie in 2024, over 17.5 (bet was under). (Bo Nix 2024: 29 passing TDs)
“Meanwhile, D. Wood, Brock Purdy, we saw him run it a little bit last week. More or less 12.5 rushing yards. Oh, come on, man. This is going to be more.”
KC 25, SF 22 — Brock Purdy: 12 rushing_yards vs over 12.5; busts. (Brock Purdy: 12 rushing_yards)
“A D. Wood, Travis Kelsey, more or less six and a half catches. Well, if the answer with Mahomes is always more, I'm going more here. I'm going more with Travis.”
KC 25, SF 22 — Travis Kelce: 9 receptions vs over 6.5; covers. (Travis Kelce: 9 receptions)
“Let us start Saturday night in San Francisco. More or less two-and-a-half touchdown passes for Jordan Love against the 49ers. More or more. You're talking about a guy. You're talking about a guy and Jordan Love in the second half of the season. Name me a quarterback that's playing better than him.”
Jordan Love threw 2 touchdown passes (and 2 INTs) as the 49ers beat the Packers 24-21, under the 2.5 line the bettor took the over on. (21/34, 194 pass yds, 2 pass TD, 2 INT)
“Let's do some more or less here, guys. D. Wood, Josh Allen, more or less 232.5 passing yards.”
BUF 24, KC 27 — Josh Allen: 186 passing_yards vs over 232.5; busts. (Josh Allen: 186 passing_yards)
“D. Wood, let's go to Buffalo. Josh Allen on what's supposed to be a weather game. more or less than 259.5 total yards. I'm going to go less because you already pointed out that we're expecting inclement weather up in Buffalo with the wind being a primary factor.”
Josh Allen totaled 277 yards (203 passing + 74 rushing) in Buffalo's 31-17 wild-card win over Pittsburgh, over the 259.5 line the bettor took the under on. (21/30, 203 pass yds, 3 pass TD; 8 car, 74 rush yds, 1 rush TD)
“C.J. Stroud against that good Cleveland defense, more or less one-and-a-half touchdown passes. I'm going fewer. I'm going fewer right here against that Browns defense, that number-one-ranked Browns defense.”
C.J. Stroud threw 3 touchdown passes in Houston's 45-14 rout of Cleveland, over the 1.5 line the bettor took the under on. (16/21, 274 pass yds, 3 pass TD)
“D Wood more or less 113 yards from scrimmage for Christian McCaffrey I going to go more Now that the 49ers are whole again”
The 49ers' Thanksgiving game was actually vs. the Seahawks (not the Eagles as labeled); McCaffrey had 114 rushing + 25 receiving = 139 yards from scrimmage, over the 113 line. (McCaffrey: 114 rush, 25 rec = 139 scrimmage yards (49ers 31, Seahawks 13))