“So finally, let's look at this year's MVP chase. Profit Draft Kings, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen against the field. So, Lamar and Josh Allen, you can take them as a package deal, plus 265 to win the MVP award. Graz, we'll start with you. Who has the better chance at the MVP this season, Lamar or Josh Allen? I would say Josh Allen. I believe his team will be better. But, yeah, I think it's – I would say Josh Allen. I mean, it's good that they're the co-favorites. Obviously, we know they can win it, and if all goes well, they'll be in contention. Whenever Lamar Jackson's had a fully healthy season, he's been at or near the top of the MVP balloting. There's so much uncertainty in both places, really, due to the coaching changes, but especially on offense in Baltimore. Would you like them, or would you like the field? I would take the field.”
Dan Graziano
Analyst · 11-7 on settled picks
Bankroll
Last 10: 7-3 Net units over time, 1 unit staked per pick · 15 settled daysPicks
19 total · 1 pending“And that brings us then to the quarterback, Graziano. The total, again, he's from ESPN Bet Sportsbook. 252.5 combined passing and rushing for Jalen Hurts. What do you think? I'm going to go less.”
PHI 24, DAL 20 — Jalen Hurts had 152 passing yards plus 62 rushing yards (214 combined) in the Eagles' 24-20 Week 1 win over Dallas on Sept 4, 2025, under 252.5 (ESPN box score). (Jalen Hurts: 152 pass yds + 62 rush yds = 214 combined)
“I think if they get the run game going, they'll lean on that, especially when it comes to touchdowns. Metcalf, the last three years, six, eight, and five. Like, that would be six-and-a-half. That's kind of a good-sized number for him, given his past production. I'm going to say less.”
DK Metcalf finished the 2025 season with 59 receptions, 850 yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns for Pittsburgh, which is under 6.5 (ESPN season stats). (DK Metcalf 2025: 59 rec, 850 yds, 6 TD)
“Graz, the number on Mahomes, 249.5 passing yards, more or less? I'll go with less, fewer, actually.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Patrick Mahomes threw for 257 yards (21/32) in the Chiefs' 40-22 Super Bowl LIX loss to the Eagles, exceeding the under 249.5 passing yards line (ESPN box score). (Patrick Mahomes: 21/32, 257 pass yds)
“Graziano, how about his favorite receiver, Travis Kelsey, receiving yards, 69.5. We go more or less. I went with less.”
KC 32, BUF 29 — Travis Kelce caught 2 passes for 19 receiving yards in the Chiefs' 32-29 AFC Championship win over the Bills, clearing the under 69.5 line (ESPN box score). (Travis Kelce: 2 rec, 19 yds)
“Graz, one and a half touchdown passes. Matthew Stafford, more or less? More. It's got to be more if they're going to have any chance.”
PHI 28-22 LAR — Matthew Stafford threw 2 passing touchdowns (26/44, 324 yds) in the Rams' 28-22 NFC Divisional loss to the Eagles, clearing the 1.5 over line (CBS Sports box score). (Matthew Stafford: 26/44, 324 pass yds, 2 pass TD)
“Graziano, C.J. Stroud tomorrow against Kansas City. More or less one and a half touchdowns. Last fewer, in fact, if we're being accurate about the English language. But, yeah, look, the Chiefs know they're going to have to win this one with defense. They're going to be able to cut off Houston's run game. The pressure they can put on C.J. Stroud, I think this low scoring game, I would go under on the 1.5.”
KC 27, HOU 19 — C.J. Stroud threw for 244 yards with 2 touchdowns (and 2 INTs) in the Dec 21, 2024 loss to Kansas City, over the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (C.J. Stroud: 244 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT)
“Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts didn't do a whole lot last week as it was the Saquon Barkley show. So, Graz, if I put the number at 255.5 total yards for the Eagles quarterback, you go more or less? I go fewer. If it has to be to fit the game. But, yeah, I think they're going to try and get Saquon Barkley going right away. I think that's going to be their plan. I think that the Bengals have a plan for trying to stop it. And Jalen Hurts I think something coming but he not all the way there yet with the Eagles passing game Still working through some things I think this goes under”
Philadelphia 37, Cincinnati 17 — Jalen Hurts passed for 236 yards and rushed for 37 (273 total) in Philadelphia's 37-17 win over Cincinnati, over the 255.5 under line (ESPN box score). (Jalen Hurts: 236 pass yds, 37 rush yds, 273 total)
“Graziano, Jayden Daniels. Boy, he's been spectacular. Sure has. 284 and a half total yards for him, more or less. More.”
Daniels passed for 269 yards and rushed for 22 (291 total) as Washington lost to Baltimore, over the 284.5 total-yards line. (Jayden Daniels: 24/35, 269 pass yds, 2 TD; 6 car, 22 rush yds; 291 total)
“Braziano, let's go to Washington. More or less 18 and a half touchdown passes for Jaden Daniels. I say more”
Jayden Daniels threw 25 passing touchdowns in his 2024 rookie season, over the 18.5 line (ESPN stats). (Jayden Daniels 2024: 25 passing TDs)
“Graz, the number's 11 and a half on the Chiefs. What do you think? I think it's going to be more.”
15-2 — The Chiefs finished the 2024 regular season 15-2, well over the 11.5 win total (ESPN). (KC 2024 record: 15-2)
“Graz, the Steelers' total is eight and a half. More or less? I mean, more, right?”
10-7 — The Steelers finished the 2024 regular season 10-7, over the 8.5 win total (ESPN). (PIT 2024 record: 10-7)
“And then Graziano, let's talk about George Kittle. More or less 47 and a half receiving yards. Let's say fewer than 47 and a half.”
25-22 — George Kittle caught 2 passes for 4 receiving yards in Super Bowl LVIII, under the 47.5-yard line the bettor took the under on (ESPN box score). (George Kittle: 4 receiving yards)
“game of more or less and it's graziano it's travis kelsey will he have more or fewer than 69 and a half receiving yards i gotta go with more we've been talking about it he's the number one option for them in the passing game”
25-22 — Travis Kelce caught 9 passes for 93 receiving yards in Super Bowl LVIII, over the 69.5-yard line the bettor took the over on (ESPN box score). (Travis Kelce: 93 receiving yards)
“Now Brock Purdy, more or less 244 and a half passing yards. Let's say less.”
KC 25-SF 22 — Brock Purdy threw for 255 passing yards in the 49ers' 25-22 OT loss to Kansas City in Super Bowl LVIII, over the 244.5 line the bettor took the under on. (Brock Purdy: 255 passing yards)
“Graziano more or less 284 total yards for Lamar Jackson against the Texans I think I said more in this one I think he'll play well. I do think there's definitely a possibility that Houston can pressure him into mistakes.”
34-10 — Lamar Jackson totaled 252 yards (152 passing + 100 rushing) in Baltimore's 34-10 win over Houston, under the 284-yard over the bettor took (ESPN box score). (Lamar Jackson: 16/22, 152 pass yds, 2 pass TD; 11 car, 100 rush yds, 2 rush TD)
“C.J. Stroud, more or less, 258.5 passing yards. I'm going to say more.”
HOU 23, IND 19 — C.J. Stroud passed for 264 yards in the Texans' 23-19 win over the Colts, over the 258.5 line. (Stroud: 20/26, 264 passing yds)
“In Graziano, at Lambeau Field, Justin Fields, the more or less number is 256.5 total yards. I'm going more. I mean, the Green Bay defense hasn't really been anything special. They were good last week against a rookie for the Vikings that was a little overwhelmed.”
CHI 9, GB 17 — Justin Fields had 175 total yards (148 passing, 27 rushing) in the Bears' 9-17 loss to the Packers, under the 256.5 line. (Fields: 148 pass yds, 27 rush yds (175 total))
“And then Graziano, let's go to Dak. More or fewer, 295 and a half passing yards. Got to go with more.”
DAL 33, PHI 13 — Dak Prescott passed for 271 yards in the Cowboys' 33-13 win over the Eagles, under the 295.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Dak Prescott: 271 passing yards)