579 picks still waiting on a result, soonest game first. Futures without a fixed date sort last — they settle when their market does.
“I think they still go under five and a half wins here. That's going to be wrong team favorite here. They're only going to win three, four games this year. All right, and we'll see how it all turns out with the Raiders again.”
“I think to go ahead, it's only minus 125. Yankees under 90 and a half wins. Adjusted win total for the New York Yankees at minus 125 for 1.25 units.”
“We go ahead. Marlins to make the playoffs at plus 200. OK, the Marlins make the playoffs at plus 200. It's a one unit bet.”
“That cashed a plus 145 bet for us, for the Red Sox to make the playoffs. I like it. Red Sox to make the playoffs at plus 145 for one unit, kind of a makeup bet for the fact that they're not going to go over 87 and a half wins this season.”
“We're going to go with another wrong fighter favorite here. We're winning this week, so you take a shot here. You're going to see a few underdogs on this card. I like Jan Bojovic plus the 255.”
“All right, we got preseason football tonight. We're going to turn our attention to the Bengals-Lions. We got a catfight in Cincinnati, and we're going to roll with the Cincinnati Bengals on the first half line against the spread. So the Bengals are laying six and a half points in the first half against the Lions. Reports are that Joe Burrow will play, along with a lot of other starters for the Cincinnati Bengals, both sides of the ball. So we're going to take the Bengals against the spread, six and a half points first half of this preseason game tonight against the lions that is the play of the day it's a hundred bucks to make a hundred and eighty three dollars”
“[5:40] But I think it's a good play if you can find it. [5:42] And again, you've got to shop around to a multitude of different books, go to the prediction market side of things. [5:47] This is where you can have other outs. You got to have multiple outs. Well, you may be able to find this. The best number for this very well might be in the prediction market world to go and jump in on this, depending on the state that you're in, in which books you've got available to you. But Suarez to go over a half a base at minus 150 is where I found it. You can get it for 1.5 units. Let's get Suarez. If he hits a home run. Great. Just get a single for us is all we need.”
“[8:00] This is how we take the information and then we roll it into another prop market. [8:04] If he goes deep, that's great. [8:05] But over one and a half hits, runs and RBIs is plus 107. [8:10] And we're going to throw a unit down on Griffin Conine to get a double, to get a score a run, to have a hit, have an RBI, to have a productive day.”
“[12:27] home starts, five and a third, five and a third and six innings pitched. Let's see a six inning [12:34] quality start here out of Paul Skeens and let's bet over 15 and a half outs. He has hit this in his [12:42] last three home starts. Let's get Paul Skeens to get through the fifth into the sixth inning here [12:48] against this lineup that the Tigers, you know, at times can be quiet, can be shut down. Paul Skeens [12:55] over 15 and a half outs at minus 119.”
“[14:25] I'm going to leave the bullpens out of this. [14:27] If the Astros do take a lead late and you've got to face off against Josh Cater, [14:31] I don't have much faith in the team that's already mailed it in for the rest of the year. [14:34] So I'll take the Angels' first five innings, plus 105, plus 110.”
“but the Astros looking to pick up another win over the Angels today, but offensively for Houston, though, Jeremy, who do you like? Yeah, I mean, look, I think it's easy enough to go look at a guy like Jordan Alvarez, especially with the matchup against Grayson Rodriguez. And I can't fault anyone for doing that. The only issue, I bet a lot of over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs. I find guys that fit my algorithm in great game environments or great matchups according to the pitcher and hitter. Jeremy Pena is showing up in my top 15 hitters today. And I like his odds a little bit better. I think he's a guy that's locked in. And with Grayson Rodriguez, yeah, he can get his Ks or he used to be able to do that. He's hitting more bats his days, can get wild. And I like the fact that Pena's hitting in front of Jordan Alvarez and it gives him some opportunities to see more fastballs. Give me Jeremy Pena over one and a half hits, runs, RBIs today. I think it's a great play.”
“[8:33] All right, let's get into some of your head-to-heads that you like. [8:35] Let's start with Colin Murakawa, minus 111 over Justin Thomas.”
“[16:40] Are you bringing two [16:44] We'll hear for your outrights, both priced at 20 to 1, Ludwig Oberg and Xander Schauffele.”
“[16:40] Are you bringing two [16:44] We'll hear for your outrights, both priced at 20 to 1, Ludwig Oberg and Xander Schauffele.”
“But three and a half rushing touchdowns for Drake May for the regular season just feels low. So that would be my bet.”
“I do think the over is the play in the game. I do think we're going to see a lot of offense in Georgia. You're going to have the humidity, I think, is a significant storyline for the weather coming up here for tonight. Defense is getting tired in the second half in their first game, but you have a 51 and a half that's pretty much painted across the across every sports book right now for Colorado and Georgia Tech. We came in and took the over in this game for tonight at 50 and a half.”
“and Caglianone has a good eye and like I said we're looking for hits runs RBIs he can score you know if they try to pitch around him so we're gonna go over one and a half hits runs RBIs Jack Caglione here of I hate to say it of the dreaded Florida Gators I'm going with him here”
“First of all, I hate to be that guy, but I bet this a couple of weeks ago is 575 and a half. It's now 599 and a half. There's no way that this closes south of 600. I still think that there's value on this. He has passed this number in seven of his eight seasons, and it's not even close.”
“I'm going to follow the steam here. I'm going to take the, you know, take the deal. I don't think Clemson wins the game, but I think they're going to have a shot to win the game. I think this is going to be a really good game. And I think we'll learn a little bit about LSU and a little bit about this roster that Lane Kiffin has. But as openers go, this is as tasty and as interesting as you're going to get with a whole lot of controversy and a whole lot of attention off the field. And so because of that, I just don't know if LSU comes into this game completely focused on everything they're supposed to be focused on. And I think Lane Kiffin, I mean, there's people in that building that absolutely hate Lane Kiffin that want to see him fail. The SEC wants to see him fail, for goodness sakes. So I'll take the points. Give me the points. Clemson plus ten and a half for minus one ten.”
“This is a fight here where I think Puno has more power. I think he has better cardio. and if it goes to the ground, which it may or may not, we're not sure there, I think even has an edge there. I think this line in fight is priced just terribly wrong here. Should be a pick-em or maybe even Pune is even a favorite here. So I'm going to take him here, plus 200. That's right, plus 200. You might even get plus 205, plus 210 if you shop around here. Bet a little, win a lot. We're going with the Hawaii here. Hawaiian here from Oahu. I think Puno Soriano gets to win.”
“[9:26] the one sec bet that i've made so far is i bet texas a&m under eight and a half wins”
“[9:30] And if you say you do, you're full of shit, which is 90 percent of the reason why I bet the Falcons to win the division is because they just have the longest odds. [9:39] And if we don't know, give me the longest odds.”
“[21:58] Best way to bet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. [22:02] I'm out on the Bucs this year [22:04] I'll say it's under their win total [22:06] under 8.5 wins for the [22:08] Tampa Bay Buccaneers I've already placed it in the app”
“[47:14] Pat, over-under for the Saints sitting at 7.5. [47:18] Would you take the over or the under on them season long? [47:22] I feel the same way about this whole division. [47:24] It's insane. [47:25] They're just all like, oh, they could be good. [47:26] They could suck. [47:27] I literally think everything we were talking about, [47:30] and you talked about the odds being as close as they are. [47:33] Any team in this division could shock everyone and be really good [47:37] or just suck out loud. [47:39] I think I'm going to take the over with New Orleans”
“[48:00] Um, I, it's already tracking in the action app as we speak, ladies and germs. [48:05] I, um, I'm going to hedge my bets on, on new Orleans here and just bet Kellen Moore to [48:12] win coach of the year at 12 to one”
“[55:10] plant my flag here okay you really planted your flag on that thing i will start with also my best [55:16] way to bet the falcons which is just for them to win the division this crappy division and why not [55:21] them why not now division winners four to one on the atlanta falcons”
“[48:34] I'm going to triple, quadruple down, whatever you want to call it, [48:38] on the Lions winning this division, plus 170. [48:40] It's my favorite bet for the division out there.”
“[31:23] I think the best way to bet the Packers is under nine and a half wins. [31:26] You can get that at plus 110. [31:27] And this needs to be a pod bet.”
“[49:37] And I think things are going to get shaken up again in the NFC North. [49:41] I'm betting the Vikings at five to one. [49:43] I've already logged this in the app in Kyler.”
“[12:21] I actually bought out of my Falcons divisional future ticket, [12:25] not the Super Bowl one. [12:27] That one can ride into the sunset. [12:28] But the divisional future ticket I bought out of [12:32] and then bought it back at just a lower price for myself. [12:36] a lower unit size because I still believe it. [12:39] I believe in my Falcons love I have, [12:43] and I put it out there enough now that whether I like it or not, [12:46] this has become part of my football brand for 2026,”
“[55:52] You can take your pick between the Bengals over the nine and a half. [55:55] It's still available out there. [55:56] I think it's probably going to disappear rather soon, and it's a minus 160.”
“[47:33] Kendra is all over them. [47:34] It's Kendra and Jimmy Haslam, the Browns owner. [47:37] The only two people I know taking the over on them this year. [47:40] Do you want to talk to this when I picked the Panthers to their over last year and them [47:44] to win the division? [47:45] So suck me. [47:46] kravitz i did come around on carolina uh you nailed that one uh but that does not change my [47:52] opinion that the browns stink so joe do you want to talk any sense into kendra are you with her on [47:57] this they're over under sitting at all no no no no don't do this to me i don't think the browns [48:00] are gonna be good i think the browns are gonna win six games don't that's why i i get that i i [48:04] think that's a bad well she's only over on the five and a half then so i am not i'm not trying [48:09] to overrate your love for the browns but um i uh yeah i don't think that's a good bet joe where do”
“[56:09] Yeah, to Kendra's point, that 9.5 over I'm in on, I just hate the juice. [56:14] So if I'm going to be in, I'm all in. [56:17] Give me the division winner plus 203.”
“[56:26] I think, and I would take it a step further. [56:29] I would take them to just win the AFC.”
“[56:55] You can bet Ravens Bengals finished top two, not in any particular order. [57:01] This is not an exact outcome. [57:02] This is just that those two teams will be first and second place in the division at even money. [57:07] And that is my favorite way to fade the Steelers in the Browns.”
“[44:03] I'm not positive on the Steelers one of the first bets i made when the schedules were released was or when the wind [44:05] totals were released i should say was the steelers under eight and a half wins”
“[19:31] But seven and a half is low enough that I'm willing to take the risk on it and to jump on that, where if they go eight, nine or if they go nine and eight, they just barely get into the playoffs.”
“[35:32] my pick that i like for the nfc south is the team that's right above them in the odds [35:37] i love the panthers at plus 310”
“[41:07] touchdowns scored against both i need a grade on a bet that kendra handed out on one of our last [41:08] episodes and i loved it so much i immediately tailed it so this is already active uh she made [41:14] the case for drake may over three and a half rushing touchdowns on the year minus 105”
“[44:34] week one against that Niners defense. Ducky what about you? Let's go Trevor Lawrence over rushing [44:40] touchdowns for the season I think out there you can find six plus the plus money I look at the [44:47] second half of the season late in the season last year his rushing numbers designed runs all went up [44:55] they talked a lot about like increasing his sneak usage especially near the goal line i think you're [45:00] going to see that even more this season uh then i mentioned i think their defense takes a big step [45:06] back they're going to be in more shootouts uh so i think trevor lawrence continues his rushing [45:12] prowess that we saw late last year last year i think he got nine um [45:17] So I don't hate like eight plus that juicier numbers, [45:21] but let's go at six plus rushing touchdowns. [45:24] And it's a guy, he's also, you know, for these season long numbers,”
“[46:42] So Jill basically talked me out of betting Jonathan Taylor for an anytime [46:46] touchdown throughout the course of the season. [46:48] What I'm going to do then is just bet it at the beginning of the year and [46:52] just let it sort of sit like a stock. [46:54] I'm going to have Jonathan Taylor to lead the league in rushing touchdowns [46:58] at six to one odds. [47:00] Last I checked, he's still running behind one of the best offensive lines [47:04] in the game. [47:04] This is a team that's going to struggle to get in the end zone through the [47:07] air. [47:07] so they need him to punch it in he had 18 rushing touchdowns last year it's hard to ask for that sort [47:13] of repeat production but he's still in his prime so i'm willing to take the plunge and this is at [47:18] least my way it's like my elixir gil of not betting jonathan taylor week to week let's just [47:23] have him to dominate the league throughout the season yeah i mean if you want to bet the minus”
“[37:45] The only guy that I bet, I bet this yesterday because I'll be honest, [37:50] when I saw the picture of Puka Nakua and just seeing some of his mouthy behavior, [37:58] I thought, I don't know if he's going to play week one. [38:01] So I'm playing Devontae Adams. [38:03] Right now, I can see his odds right now around plus 120 to score a touchdown in week one against the 49ers.”
“[54:34] running it a lot late um and he's probably getting even more of a workload and you can bet his rushing [54:42] yards over if you'd like if you agree with me and you want to make some bread off of it over 674 and [54:50] a half at minus 110 over on draft kings”
“[18:19] done here. So I'm going to go, uh, and I'm going to take him here inside the distance, Sheen Silva [18:24] and minus 200, minus 210, but it's a lock here. [18:30] And we're going to go with another blowout special. [18:35] Third of the day here, Gene Silva inside the distance. [18:39] Like I said, can't figure out whether he's going to get that submission [18:42] or a knockout or even a doctor stoppage, but not lasting five rounds.”
“All right, Demonse, let's get right to it. My picks for week one. First pick of the season. First pick of the season, we're going with New Orleans, plus seven and a half at Detroit. So, listen, my feeling on Detroit is very simple. I think certainly the first month of the season, maybe the whole season, but certainly the first month of the season you're going to be able to throw on them. They still have not found a reliable pass rusher opposite Aiden Hutchinson. Both of their safeties, Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph are out injured. Obviously they had to cut their best corner, Terry and Arnold So if I think and I not as I not low on Tyler Shuck I not high on Tyler Shuck But what I will tell you is I think the Saints are going to air it out And so this feels to me like a game because I getting seven and the hook Now, you're paying a little bit of an extra price on that, but you can, at Polymark, get it very easily. New Orleans plus seven and a half. I think there's backdoor cover potential.”
The percentage is the prediction-market entry price. Parentheses show derived American odds, rounded to the nearest whole number; fees are excluded. Quote annotations are ours, and the original wording is preserved.
This entry comes from the on-air quote; a later market snapshot is a separate observation. Exact capture time unknown.
“Make me my offer before we go. The offer is back. So the Panthers, they made the mistake of trading away the pick that became Caleb Williams, and now he's come back for revenge. So this week we're comboing Caleb three-plus passing touchdowns and 300-plus pass yards. That is at 8% (≈ +1150). That's at 8% (≈ +1150). So it's 12.5-1. 8% (≈ +1150). Big game. This 1-12 times. You know what? If we can get that at 8% (≈ +1150), 12.5-1, I'll take it. I don't mind that.”
“I like Omar Cooper Jr. on the Jets side here at 12-1. I was actually kind of surprised his price was this high because he was their first-round pick this year. He's out of Indiana. Ended up in a camp battle with Isaiah Williams, but that was probably just them just trying to test the rookie, but he seems to have won that job. So I expect him to be out there for most three wide receiver sets with Garrett Wilson and A.D. Mitchell. You know, Wilson's the clear number one target in this offense, but Mitchell's more of a sacrificial X in this scheme. So I think that, you know, when Cooper's out there, could be the number two target when he is on the field kind of reminds me of like a Jarvis Landry type I think he's going to be a pretty good slot receiver maybe not a ton of touchdown upside probably going to be better between the 20s but still at this price uh gotta take uh flyer here on Cooper at 12 to 1 and then on the Titans side um I mean it's pretty ugly but I'm gonna have to”
“on Cooper at 12 to 1 and then on the Titans side um I mean it's pretty ugly but I'm gonna have to go with Gunnar Helm here at plus 550 he's definitely the best value on this side uh because you know, Chigarquanquo. Now on the commanders, Helm should be the Titans' lead tight end. And, you know, when he was on the field last year, he was getting targeted very frequently at a 23% target rate when he was running routes. And I do expect, you know, Daniel Bellinger to mix in quite a bit. He played for Brian Dable over in New York, but he's more of a blocking tight end. So I think, you know, when they're running two tight end sets, Helm's going to be the pass catching tight end anyway so i think he could be one of ward's top targets in the red zone if and when they do get there uh so i like helm here at uh plus 550 yeah the omer cooper one i wasn't”
“I'm starting off with the lowest odds of the day that I have for this entire show. And yes, this is obvious, but I'm going with Jamar Chase minus 116. And I know I don't like taking touchdowns at negative odds,”
“but on the other side I'm going with Egbuka plus 210 and he only had six touchdowns last year, he was not great the second half of the season but what people”
“banger this is uh brown's jaguars i gotta sign this one so uh i got one that's uh you know a little soft a little one's maybe a little bit of a long shot depending on how you look at it uh i'm gonna take bashal tootin on the jaguars at plus 140 i was initially looking at jacoby myers actually in this offense but um i just think there's like there's committees right now on this offense”
“what i like but then on the other side this is a guy that i bet a lot especially in the second half of the year which it was really gross was harold fan right now i'm seeing his odds as high as plus 425 to score uh you're essentially getting like a gunner helm you're getting the starting tight end in an offense now that's offense is being led by a deplorable human being in Deshaun Watson who's probably just as equal as not throwing the ball well so it's not uh not very fun kind of gross as a result but the fact that he was able to score five touchdowns over the final five games of the season with having Shador Sanders as his quarterback I think that only boosts his profile to show that he could be productive regardless who's throwing the ball and last year he was the browns passing offense he led the team in targets per route run as a rookie he was second in route participation behind jerry judy uh so if the the browns are underdogs the way that we're looking at them here i think there just going to be more passing game script as a result so it just gives me that slight hope that deshaun watson is just completely washed and will target Harold Fannin in the end zone So those are my two picks for the Browns and Jaguars”
“wouldn't really lock this in yet uh but on the stealer side i i do love this one uh rico daddle at plus 120 um i already talked about him last week in my sgp article i put together kind of highlighting he was our top touchdown edge in our initial prop projections when he was like plus 165 which was crazy still like it at plus 120 here because i do expect jaylen warren to mix in a ton but maybe more of the Kenneth Gainwell passing role that's, you know, vacant now with Dowdle being, you know, the early down back. Maybe that like the Najee Harris old school role in this offense. But this this is a new scheme under Mike McCarthy. But Dowdle played for McCarthy in Dallas. So he's kind of like recruiting his former guy in this offense. So I think that will be the guy when they get near the goal line. He's been an excellent goal line back the past few seasons. And he actually ranked second in my Vulture ratings, which is essentially the odds of them scoring their next goal line touch. He's only behind none other than Kyron Williams, believe it or not. But I think just with like you said, I think the Steelers are a sneaky pick here to win, cover the spread, because the Falcons quarterback situation is a disaster. They lost a couple very key injuries on their defensive line and, you know, some turnover on the defense. where I think this is going to be a game the Steelers can play with the lead, and that only helps someone like Dowdle. So give me him at plus 120.”
“Panthers. Grant, you're up. What do you like for Bears Panthers? All right, we're starting off with Caleb Williams. You can get around plus 500 at the moment. Odds are just a bit too high. Panthers His run defense was not great last year.”
“And on the other side, going with Jalen Coker, You can get him around plus 300, plus 310. Yeah, you like him. I know that. You kind of talked me into him a little bit when we were talking earlier. Yeah, it's just looking at just how he did at the beginning of the season compared to the end of the season. So last month of the season, he had an 85 snap share. In the playoffs, 12 targets, nine receptions, a touchdown, three red zone targets. Last five games of the regular season, he had three touchdowns. So that's four in the last six games he's played. We're getting at plus 310. And the spot here is going to be a lot tougher for McMillan. So he's likely to get some more volume here.”
“So, all right, let's now move to Saints-Lions. This one's a fun one, low-key. I took on the Saints side, I went with Devon Vele. He's around plus 400 to score. Now, he only scored twice last year.”
“ways that Jamison Williams can score not just from a deep pass from Jared Goff so Devon Vele at four to one and Jamison Williams at plus 180 those are my two favorite touchdown bets for Saints Lions”
“Yeah, so for the Ravens side, I'm going to go with the long shot here. I'm going with Matthew Hibner at 19 to 1. Just showing a ton of value on this because similar to the Eli Raritan touchdown from last night,”
“at 19 to 1 and then for the Colts I'm just gonna go with my guy here Tyler Warren at plus 235 um you know he's been dealing with a groin injury the past few weeks but seems like he's ready to go had a full practice today I believe um and they lost you know Michael Pittman but they brought in”
“All right, let's move now to Bill's Texans. This one I expect to be a pretty tough defensive matchup. Grant, what do you like for touchdown scores for Bill's Texans? Yeah, we'll start over with the Bills first. I'm going DJ Moore. You can find him around plus 265 at the moment. There's a lot of unknowns in this Bills offense this year.”
“then on the other side Nico Collins like who else is Stroud really going to throw to? I mean, obviously, Higgins out for season. Dell still on the IR. So we got Booty there. We got Hutchinson. We got Noel. Like, it's the Nico Collins show. And, I mean, the connection between Nico and Stroud over the years, whenever they've both been healthy, has just been incredible. So he's going to get absolutely peppered with targets, I think, all game long. Getting him at plus 178, when there were times the last two years when we'd see him down close to plus 110 to score a touchdown. It's just a little bit inflated.”
“one so i'm gonna go with uh on the the dolphin side i'm gonna go with malik willis i mean he's plus 340 i think it's kind of rare that you get a scramble first quarterback like this uh like like a justin's fields for example at like plus 300 or better i mean the last time we saw him”
“you're gonna laugh at this one we're gonna take jack besh at eight to one uh drafted in the second round last year from reports he's expected to be the starting slot wide receiver for the raiders um with bowers out i mean that's gonna open up at least you know 10 to 12 targets you know within the pass catchers there. And you could see last season, even though they weren't very effective on offense, the Raiders were trying at least to put him in positions to succeed. Like you did see his snap rates and routes run rate. They did all go up over the last five games of the season. So I think you're going to get a starting slot receiver. That's probably going to play, you know, 70% of snaps at eight to one against the dolphins defense, which isn't that great either. Yeah, I'm going to take that. So Jack Besha, eight to one and Malik Willis at plus three 40. Those are my two bets for Dolphins Raiders.”
“Yeah, so for the Cardinals, I'm going to go with Marv here, Marv Harrison Jr. at plus 240. and it does seem like kind of a make or break year for him heading into year three.”
“And then on the Chargers side, got to go with my guy, Aranda Gadsden at plus 550. And, I mean, if you guys remember, we had some good times there for like a two-week stretch back in orange here. But I'm a little bit worried. He might, you know, struggle in Mike McDaniel's new scheme. They brought in David Joku. They have Charlie Kohler, who's apparently the lead tight end. So his playing time might take a hit. So that's, you know, that's why his odds are kind of inflated right now. But he still has upside, still could be a weapon for them in the red zone. So I think this is a sneaky way to still invest, you know, in his upside at least. I wouldn't touch like his yardage props out of the gate, but certainly, you know, his touchdown bat at like plus 550. I think that's kind of the way to invest in his skill set still.”
“Okay, Grant, you are up next, and you have Commanders Eagles. What do you like in that game? Yeah, we're starting off with an old, reliable Dallas Goddard. You can find them around plus 230, plus 240. It'll be interesting to see what this Eagles offense looks like this year. Obviously, A.J. Brown is now gone.”
“Then on the other side, scary Terry McLaurin. You can find him around plus 325. And I know that McLaurin did not look good in almost any weight last year. Obviously, injuries, all that stuff.”
“that look uh by mcclorn let's uh now move to packers uh vikings so i got that game uh this one this might be the most absurd touchdown price i've seen this week uh that was justin jefferson uh i grabbed his odds at plus 180 justin jefferson has saw at least a 30 target share in each of the last three seasons.”
“on the Packers side though the new wide receiver one in this offense Christian Watson I think is that's who you got to grab uh they gave him an extension in the offseason what one of the few times in his career uh that he's actually healthy entering training camp in the regular season and despite the health issues even last year he still managed to score six touchdowns in 10 games scored a touchdown in the playoff game uh against the Bears and uh I was looking up some data on Jordan Love and just kind of how he handles blitz rates because the Vikings, they tend to blitz more than not any other team in the NFL, but under Brian Flores, you know, they're going to be top three, top five in blitz rate. Well, Jordan Love tended to have a little bit more of a higher targets per route run towards Christian Watson when those times were happening. So I'm just hoping that that kind of floats all boats, that a lot of the blitz comes in, that he just ends up targeting Christian Watson as a result. So for Packers, Vikings, Justin Jefferson and Christian Watson I think both of these are pretty solid prices at both plus 180 and plus 220. RK let's”
“now move to Sunday night football. Kerner you got this one you've got the Cowboys hat on it's Cowboys Giants who are you taking to score touchdowns in this game? Well Jill if you remember last year if I was ever assigned a Lions game you knew I was going with Isaac Deslau. Hell yeah. Say they're the Cowboys I feel like I got the Cowboys every week and you knew I was going with george pickens so i'm going to stick with him here george pickens at plus 150 uh you know he was constantly showing value uh in our prop tool last year and that continues into 2026”
“pickings can have his scoring here so love the price at plus 150 and then on the other side i gotta go uh have a blast from the past here and go with odell beckham jr nice uh at plus 750 i feel like the last time he was good grant and i were battling on fancy aces that's how long ago that was but um you know he signed with his former team he got his number 13 back too so”
“I'm going to go with Rico Dowdle at plus 120 because this is his third team in his third straight season, but he's joining Jalen Warren on the Steelers, but this is Mike McCarthy's scheme, who he played for a couple of seasons ago in Dallas. So I think that McCarthy trusts him. I think he'll be the goal lineback initially. So love the value we're getting here, especially because the Falcons, they're missing some key players on defense, quarterback situations a mess. So I think the Steelers should play with the lead here and lean on Doudle pretty heavily. So I like Doudle here at plus 120. All right. Grant, what do you like? I'm rolling with DJ Moore. Like I said, I just really think his role in this offense is going to be very good. I really think that the Bills are going to pass the ball a bit more this season. I think that he's far too talented and just has not had great talent passing the ball for most of his career outside of last year. And they can scheme him in any given way they need to in order to get him into the end zone. So I think just at plus 260 or so, it's just too high of odds. OK, well, I'm going to go with Justin Jefferson. Again, I think this is such a misprice right now at plus 165 at DraftKings that I think it should be closer to about plus 135. So I'm going to pair that as the third pick for this parlay. And when you parlay those three players together, that comes out to just over 20 to 1 at DraftKings. Rico Daddle, DJ Moore, and Justin Jefferson. So those are our favorite touchdown scores for the week presented by DraftKings.”
The percentage is the prediction-market entry price. Parentheses show derived American odds, rounded to the nearest whole number; fees are excluded. Quote annotations are ours, and the original wording is preserved.
This entry comes from the on-air quote; a later market snapshot is a separate observation. Exact capture time unknown.
“[27:54] Simon, it is time for our Brass Balls Trade of the Week presented by Polymarket. [28:02] It is the Miami Dolphins, three and a half, currently trading at 45% (≈ +122) at Polymarket. [28:10] You know what it takes? [28:11] It takes brass balls. [28:16] Dude, we were kind of already there. [28:19] then the Brock Bowers news broke yesterday so he's not going to be playing this and Cleveland are the [28:28] the ballsiest plays on the board uh we've decided to go with this one partially because we've just [28:37] been on it for so long yeah and I get why you don't trust Cleveland and we're more so here in [28:45] Miami just because it is not only are the trends pointing to it but it's like who are the Raiders [28:50] to be catching three and a half against anybody let alone especially with Brock Bowers out now [28:55] yeah and potentially Gentee and I know there's a lot of underlying numbers where I think it's [29:01] Mayer or Myers the backup is actually a pretty good tight end and he should be able to step in [29:05] this Kubiak system and perform pretty well but on the flip side like I look at this Miami team and [29:11] this is the exact type of week they could catch a team. [29:13] I know I said that Vegas is a sneaky survivor play, [29:17] but that's just game theory. [29:18] In actuality, if Miami is going to steal any type of game, [29:21] it is week one. [29:23] And with Willis, that quarterback, [29:25] we don't know how long he'll last being healthy. [29:28] This is a great match for him. [29:29] This is the type of defense. [29:30] They don't have linebackers that can keep up speed-wise for him [29:33] once he gets outside the pocket. [29:35] Between him and A-chan, I think we both can squint our eyes enough [29:39] and see how they can cover this number.”
“I think they're the better team. Now, you've got to be careful. You can't expect bad teams to do good things, but I do think they're going to win this game. And, dare I say, do they pick off Cam Ward, finally get an interception as opposed to last year? It's plus money. I'm betting it. I'm betting. Yeah, why not? You can martingale it the rest of the year. It's just fluky that they didn't get one. No interceptions last year.”
“All right, let's get to our underdog money line parlay, presented by DraftKings. Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the Moneyline Parlay. I'll kick things off. I'm going to go with the Panthers. The Bears are a high regression candidate. Ben Johnson even talked about it. But they have no pass rush. Panthers offensive line has injury questions. They're going to be without their tackles. I still think they'll be okay. But I'm not as worried about their offensive line against this non-existent pass rush that the Bears don't have. The defensive regression is coming for the Bears. They also have a ton of injuries, right? They're going to be relying on a rookie's safety. They're going to be relying on Kobe Bryant. He got hurt. Kyler Gordon, one of the better slots in the league. I don't know if he's ever going to play for the Bears again. So now there's questions all over this defense. They're most likely not going to get a million turnovers in key situations again. So I think the Panthers will be able to move the ball. Additionally, I think the Panthers got – they infused their defense with more talent. they disguised their coverages pre-snap. They did it at the highest rate in the NFL last year. That is when Caleb Williams struggled. His numbers really fell off a cliff against teams that disguised their coverages pre-snap. So I think they want to run a cover three, disguise. I think Caleb could throw a couple picks here. Mike struggled a bit. Roma Dunze now dealing with an injury. so yeah i think panthers at home uh i'll take a shot with carolina where you're gonna yeah i can see that they've definitely uh demonstrated how much more competent they are obviously won the division last year albeit with a losing record and then hung around with the rams and i think i'm not a bryce young fan no neither am i he's too tiny i mean i root for him because he's like an all-american guy great leader he's just he's just tiny and typically that doesn't work well that position in the NFL. But they have, Canalis and company have figured out a way to lean into his strengths, figured out passing lanes. He's really good as a home underdog. Bears, I mean, like you said, Caleb Williams, who I like, and his ceiling is very high, but he's still got those old habits from USC where he can sort of, it's like backyard sandlot stuff, like figuring out the plays after the snap. So I could see that sort of backfiring against the team, like you said, disguises looks so well and so often before the snap. So no way I'd lay the points there. All right. Where are you going with for your money on underdog? I know it's a tragic out of the gates, but I'm going to take the jets. I really think they're going to win this game. And some of it is a bet on New York as much as it is a bet against Tennessee. So a couple of things, the jets should dominate the trenches. They like Tennessee is one of the worst offensive lines in the league. and the jets are trending in the right direction last year and in terms of offense obviously we know they have garrett wilson and i think brie saw is going to be fine and i'm not a geno fan so like i'm a raiders fan and when they announced that they were acquiring him and getting him i was just like so bummed out and i was like this is terrible it goes against everything this is just gonna be a duct tape or band-aid on a wound and now you find yourself in the first but he's not Not as bad as he was last year. Like, I think it's ridiculous. He scheduled you know he the favorite to leave the league in turnovers or interceptions Like the offensive line last year for the Raiders was just horrific It was a turnstile He be fine in this offense and I think he got a little chip on his shoulder I think they're the better team. Now, you've got to be careful. You can't expect bad teams to do good things, but I do think they're going to win this game. And, dare I say, do they pick off Cam Ward, finally get an interception as opposed to last year? It's plus money. I'm betting it. I'm betting. Yeah, why not? You can martingale it the rest of the year. It's just fluky that they didn't get one. No interceptions last year. The offense of Tennessee is really bad. I like Cam Ward. I thought he should have won the Heisman. But in terms of this offense and everything, I don't think they're going to do much against it. I think it's kind of an under. I understand the low total. I think it's low for a reason. But I think the Jets win this game. Yeah. I mean, look, Cedric Gray also got like a UTV accident. He's a tackling machine for the Titans. He might be out. Their defense, not a lot of talent on the back end. It's one job. Their offensive line is bad. And then you would like Cam Ward still has like some like early Kayla Williams issues, like trying like footwork, trying to play hero ball. So maybe now that there's like more adults in the room will be better. But in the preseason, it was ugly. So like it's still I know it's the preseason, but still a major work in progress. Dayball, Dayball was great sort of numbers as an OC. But like how much is that as Josh Allen? Dayball numbers weren't great when it wasn't Josh Allen. Right. So, yes, give him credit for bringing Allen along and becoming an MVP-type player, but it's not going to happen overnight. I like Salah. He's fine. But I don't think the Salah revenge game is a big thing for me. I like the Jets, too. I think they win. They have real talent on the team. They went out, and I love their draft, and they signed real floor-raising veterans on the defense. now now they i mean you look at this just on offense now you know the offensive line has potential you know it's especially if these tackles keep progressing but now you have like mason taylor and sadiq at tight end 80 mitchell wilson uh at wide receiver breece hall like there's real talent on this offense and then they just i loved a lot of the signings that they made on the defensive side of the ball so i think they have a significantly i shouldn't say significantly But a much better roster overall than the Titans, who I still think are going to struggle. That part of the league is at the plus 371. And you should be looking to place that at DraftKings.”
“oh why wouldn you want to use the jets uh no i gonna take the i am gonna take the jets i think it i don want to say those famous words of wrong team favorite They can be favored on the road obviously But I like getting the extra couple points This is a low-scoring game, low total, coming down to the wire. I think they're the better team, and I think it starts and ends with the trenches more than anything. So both sides of the ball in the trenches, the Jets, and I think that the skill position players are better as well. So I like New York with a few candy on the road in Tennessee. And then I'm going to lay it in the game we haven't really discussed is Philly. I think this Washington O-line is just in shambles right now. A lot of issues. I think this Eagles team is going to have sort of an axe to grind and chip on their shoulder without A.J. Brown. Devontae should go off, by the way. But I like Philly here. I think they, I mean, remember they solved their O.C. issue last year. Their defense is top five. I like Jaden Daniels, but with that offensive line against this defense, I think there should be some significant problems. And getting it under six, obviously the market's gone up a little bit from four and a half, but I think under six is worth a play here. Yeah, you're going to have a new Washington offense, like maybe Daniels under center more, so there could be some growing pains there. People don't mention he thrived when Kingsbury was the OC. Kingsbury was like a new toy, and Daniels wasn't banged up as a rookie, and he was great. and then kingsbury leaves things fall apart like kingsbury i mean i have to see people teased him and all that stuff all those memes and everything and his arizona as a head coaching days but he knows what he's doing as an oc and really daniels has not been the same since yeah look and look i i also think i think the eagles make sense there i also love i bet talked about this in the preseason and the under the under has been hit from 47 up down to 44 and if i can't play it now but if one of these teams why does the under make sense like offensive line issues for Washington are, I mean, you lose Laramie Tunsil, it's a disaster right now. Going to Philly against that defense with offensive line issues and a new offensive scheme like that doesn't, it isn't a recipe for success. Eagles also breaking in a new offensive scheme, so there could be growing pains there. Washington's defense still not going to be great, but at least they got faster and younger. Like, it's not going to be just where they're open space all over the place. I'm not sure how Hurts is going to operate in this new offense and trying to throw over the middle field. I think there's going to be an adjustment period. But I think the Eagles defense should dominate this game. It's the best unit in this game by far. And I think that if with the under, like at 47.5, I really liked it. Now it's at 44.5. I can't chase that number. But if there's like, these are new offenses. If there's like a really good script by either one of them, and they go down and score a touchdown, and I can get a live under, that's what I'll look at. But for the contest, Doug's going with the Jets plus one and a half at the Titans. I'm going with the Rams minus three and a half against the 49ers. Doug's also going with the Eagles minus five and a half at home against the Commanders. And then I'm closing it out with the Panthers plus three at home against the Bears. And the Texans plus one and a half at home against the Bills.”
“And then I'm going to lay it in the game we haven't really discussed is Philly. I think this Washington O-line is just in shambles right now. A lot of issues. I think this Eagles team is going to have sort of an axe to grind and chip on their shoulder without A.J. Brown. Devontae should go off, by the way. But I like Philly here. I think they, I mean, remember they solved their O.C. issue last year. Their defense is top five. I like Jaden Daniels, but with that offensive line against this defense, I think there should be some significant problems. And getting it under six, obviously the market's gone up a little bit from four and a half, but I think under six is worth a play here. Yeah, you're going to have a new Washington offense, like maybe Daniels under center more, so there could be some growing pains there. People don't mention he thrived when Kingsbury was the OC. Kingsbury was like a new toy, and Daniels wasn't banged up as a rookie, and he was great. and then kingsbury leaves things fall apart like kingsbury i mean i have to see people teased him and all that stuff all those memes and everything and his arizona as a head coaching days but he knows what he's doing as an oc and really daniels has not been the same since yeah look and look i i also think i think the eagles make sense there i also love i bet talked about this in the preseason and the under the under has been hit from 47 up down to 44 and if i can't play it now but if one of these teams why does the under make sense like offensive line issues for Washington are, I mean, you lose Laramie Tunsil, it's a disaster right now. Going to Philly against that defense with offensive line issues and a new offensive scheme like that doesn't, it isn't a recipe for success. Eagles also breaking in a new offensive scheme, so there could be growing pains there. Washington's defense still not going to be great, but at least they got faster and younger. Like, it's not going to be just where they're open space all over the place. I'm not sure how Hurts is going to operate in this new offense and trying to throw over the middle field. I think there's going to be an adjustment period. But I think the Eagles defense should dominate this game. It's the best unit in this game by far. And I think that if with the under, like at 47.5, I really liked it. Now it's at 44.5. I can't chase that number. But if there's like, these are new offenses. If there's like a really good script by either one of them, and they go down and score a touchdown, and I can get a live under, that's what I'll look at. But for the contest, Doug's going with the Jets plus one and a half at the Titans. I'm going with the Rams minus three and a half against the 49ers. Doug's also going with the Eagles minus five and a half at home against the Commanders. And then I'm closing it out with the Panthers plus three at home against the Bears. And the Texans plus one and a half at home against the Bills.”
The percentage is the prediction-market entry price. Parentheses show derived American odds, rounded to the nearest whole number; fees are excluded. Quote annotations are ours, and the original wording is preserved.
This entry comes from the on-air quote; a later market snapshot is a separate observation. Exact capture time unknown.
“Give me the Carolina Panthers, Simon says. I want to play a game. What kind of game? Simon Says. Simon Says, presented by Polymarket Carolina, plus three and a half, currently trading at 55% (≈ -122) at Polymarket. I got to tell you, I'm totally with you. I got some thoughts on it. I got some stats to back it up, but I want to hear your logic here. Yeah, thank you, Polymarket, for the amazing trade number.”
“All right. Pool Genius, Jason List. Now, I want to talk about week one. Let's each make a week one survivor pick presented by DraftKings. So Jason, this was the pick that I came down to because based on the information that I've seen you posted with Pool Genius, it looks like teams like the Los Angeles Chargers and the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to get a majority of action in week one given their matchups. So I wanted to avoid that, but I didn't want to take some crazy pick. So this pick I went with was Steelers over Falcons.”
“So honestly, if I'm picking my one pick, and it's boring because I can make the arguments against it. The Chargers, I think, are a solid pick.”
“we are taking the Tennessee Titans week one over the Jets.”
“[54:39] Another thing that I do every season, [54:42] I don't know if I did this with you guys last year, [54:43] but I know I did it on my other show. [54:46] I like to pick a rookie receiver week one for an anytime. [54:50] I think that there's a lot of noise trying to cancel out my boy, [54:54] Makai Lemon right now, [54:55] but I'm going to give out an anytime week one against Washington for him. [54:58] I hit huge with Xavier Worthy for two touchdowns anytime in his first game [55:04] ever. [55:04] So I'm running it back. [55:05] We're going to go with Makai Lemon for an anytime as well.”
“[17:23] So I think the best way to bet the Bills is for them to go and win the division.”
“[22:32] So, John, you're willing to lay the juice on that? [22:35] They're minus 136 to win the division. [22:37] Yeah, because of the fact that I think the schedule is going to really hurt [22:42] those top two teams in the AFC East.”
“[42:31] And the best way to bet them. [42:33] I mean, based on our conversation, it sounds like under nothing, [42:36] under 10 and a half wins. [42:37] I would actually take that a step further, guys. [42:39] I would go, I would sell a game under nine and a half plus one 25.”
“[43:03] You know my pod bet, Kravitz. [43:05] I'm riding the Drake May over five and a half rushing touchdowns into the ground. [43:09] Oh, I like that a lot. [43:11] You want to get in our pod bet? [43:13] Yeah. [43:13] We bet them three and a half. [43:15] I got them three and a half. [43:16] Yeah, but the number was better at five and a half. [43:20] So that's what I'm writing. [43:21] She's trying to get that monster payout. [43:23] What's the plus money on that, Kendra? [43:24] I can tell you what it is right now. [43:26] One second. [43:27] I have it in three and a half, but five and a half was DraftKings, [43:30] so we put five and a half.”
“[1:06:58] Oh, what do I want to do? [1:07:00] What do I want to do? [1:07:01] Jets on their five and a half wins. [1:07:03] Aaron Gwynn is the head coach. [1:07:05] Gino Smith is the quarterback. [1:07:06] and I've said on their five and a half wins.”
“[43:03] You know my pod bet, Kravitz. [43:05] I'm riding the Drake May over five and a half rushing touchdowns into the ground. [43:09] Oh, I like that a lot. [43:11] You want to get in our pod bet? [43:13] Yeah. [43:13] We bet them three and a half. [43:15] I got them three and a half. [43:16] Yeah, but the number was better at five and a half. [43:20] So that's what I'm writing. [43:21] She's trying to get that monster payout. [43:23] What's the plus money on that, Kendra? [43:24] I can tell you what it is right now. [43:26] One second. [43:27] I have it in three and a half, but five and a half was DraftKings, [43:30] so we put five and a half. [43:31] Yeah, I think three and a half was like minus 105, [43:34] but that just felt like a layup.”
“[49:43] So I'm betting Chris Rodriguez week one anytime on it.”
“[1:02:53] nobody expected it I don't mind it at all for me I'm going to go over on your Jacksonville Jaguars [1:02:59] but right now the over over under sitting at eight and a half juice to the over I want to kick this [1:03:05] up to nine and a half and take the plus 120. I don't expect another 13 wins this year, but I do”
“All right, Monday Night Football, Broncos, Chiefs, the return of Patrick Mahomes, the return of Bo Nix, both coming off of injury. Grant, you are up for this game. Who do you like to score touchdowns for Monday Night Football? Yeah, starting off with one of those guys straight off the bat, Bo Nix plus 600. And I don't know if it's just the fear that he's not going to be as mobile after breaking that bone in his ankle.”
“And on the other side, tough matchup versus Denver, but I'm going with Xavier Worthy, plus 320. Obviously, horrific season last year. One touchdown the entire season. Only played 14 games. Obviously, Mahomes didn't play a lot of them. The Chiefs looked terrible for the majority of the season. But his rookie season had six touchdowns through the air,”
“at the grove lane kiffin and lsu and pete golding and all miss one of the most anticipated games of the college football season this is going to be a spectacle can't wait for it lsu is a three-point road favorite total in the game in the high 50s about 58 and a half do you have a thought on how this game will play out lane kiffin returns to ole miss lsu at the rebels i mean it's funny because i feel like lsu is about as public as it gets you know what i mean it's like road shock removing the emotions that are going into this game like there are this is going to be a heavily emotionally charged environment. And that is a dangerous, dangerous game to back road favorite in an environment like that. Now, all that being said, that's circumstantial. That's setting up the game. I think there is a remarkable amount of pressure on Ole Miss in this situation. Now, some people think the pressure's on Lane Kiffin. Like, I don't think the pressure's on Lane Kiffin. He's got a $90 million contract from LSU. He's not going anywhere. He's got nine months to build this roster, whereas the roster he's going against was built up over the course of several years. an identity that was built up over the course of a long time, in large part due to how he envisioned the program looking. And for Ole Miss, this is an opportunity to show we are more in infrastructure than the coach. And that, I think, puts a lot of pressure on Ole Miss. Now, a couple things here. One, the best unit on the field is LSU's defense in this game, followed closely probably by Ole Miss' offense, followed after that by LSU's offense, followed by Ole Miss' defense. So if you're going to rank the four parts of this game that could decide it, that's the order that I'd have it. And I think LSU's defense is number one by actually a pretty decent margin. Like that group is legit. So if I were to go into this game, I think many people anticipating this high-flying wire act, like I'm leaning under. I think the defenses are going to show up and play well. Golding, the new head coach of Ole Miss, he's the defensive coordinator. He's going to continue to call the defensive plays. You don't think he's been playing for this one for a while? It's the one that he knows he has to have. And then I think when you look on the other side, LSU's defense is legit. And I don't think either offense is going to put their quarterback in a position to make a mistake. Trey Dad Chandler is certainly the guy I trust more in this situation. He's been there before in this uniform, and he's played pretty good football in the first couple weeks, especially really the last six quarters. He's looked very sound. Sam Levitt's coming off a three-interception performance. So how much does Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weiss put on his shoulders? That's something worth watching. Ole Miss has not been a team that takes the ball away very much either. So do turnovers play a role? And if they do, is it advantage Ole Miss? So there's a lot of things here that I'm fascinated by. But right now, man, I'm just leaning towards LSU. I think LSU's defense is what wins the game, though. I think they're the one that gets that get it done. And I think it's going to be incredible scenery as hostile as it gets. And one that even if you could care less about college football, you have to watch because it's like it's like this dramatic as it gets, regardless of the outcome. I love your podcast, Greg. And I've said this before. Always college football. That answer just there. That sounded like something out of always college football. And I listen to the podcast enough to know that. I would encourage, if you like college football, you need to check out Always College Football with our friend Greg McElroy. And can't wait to watch and listen to you. You and Sean McDonough on the call this week of Alabama and Florida State. Great answer at the end on LSU Ole Miss. And you know what? I think LSU will be a public side. And Greg, you call me Nicky and I love it. On my birth certificate, my government name. My government name is Nicholas. But you know what? On Saturday night at the Grove, you can call me Joe. Joe Public. I'll lay it with LSU. I think LSU is going to win by double digits. I love LSU also. Have a great call, my friend, and we will catch up with you next week.”
“Grant Nefer, you are up first, and you have Browns Buccaneers. Who do you like to score in this game? I mean, I really don't like this game at all. It's absolutely interesting trying to find bets. Banger. Oh, gosh, I did not like it. But I got a couple ones at decent odds, and they're both quarterbacks. So we're starting off to Sean Watson to score a touchdown, plus 600.”
“On the other side, rolling with Baker to score a touchdown. He scored one last week. I know he has not historically been a huge threat in the red zone to run the ball. Only gets about one to three touchdowns per year. but the odds seem a little bit high, plus 550. You're going up against the Browns. Obviously, his old team, Baker being the type of guy he is,”
“six to one and Baker Mayfield at plus 550 All right I up next and I got assigned Packers Jets So for that one I kept it simple I went with Garrett Wilson because, again, even against the Titans, he had a 30% target share. He's around plus 210 to score.”
“I'm going to take Matthew Golden I initially was looking at Jaden Reed and then I realized that trend of two wide receiver sets has continued into this year you saw it in week one where when they're doing two wide receiver sets or heavy personnel jaden reed just doesn't get on the field so i had to pivot in that front but that's why i was looking at matthew golden because last week we were on christian watson in this spot but it was golden who led all packers and pass catch in snaps targets for route run he ran the most routes he had three red zone targets two were in the end zone they're really trying to make it a thing of Matthew Golden being effective uh so again if we're going to see Matthew Golden around plus 240 to score uh after watching what we saw in week one I think those odds are a little too high so those are my two picks for Jets Packers I'm going to take Garrett Wilson and Matthew Golden okay next game is Panthers Falcons Kerner you got”
“going to take Garrett Wilson and Matthew Golden okay next game is Panthers Falcons Kerner you got to sign that one what are you looking at to score uh in that one yeah of course I get the game where We don't even know who the hell the quarterback's going to be. So I'll try my best. But I think on the Panthers side, I'm going to go with Chuba Hubbard. I'm going to go with first touchdown scorer at 5-1. They had seven goal line snaps last week, and he took them all over Jonathan Brooks.”
“So who do you like for the Falcons? Yeah, so I'm going to stick with Kyle Pitts here at plus 350.”
“You can find him at anywhere from plus 900, plus 1,300.”
“Dallas Goddard at plus 235, plus 240. What are they doing? I have to look back at his stats over and over again. Last 16 games, 15 touchdowns. That's including the playoffs. averaging close to a touchdown per game had two touchdowns last week i know they're probably not going to be throwing much in the second half because they'll probably be ahead but i mean realistically dallas goddard i wouldn't be surprised if his odds should be plus 240 for a first half touchdown like he is huge in this offense in the red zone they're using him heavily hurts just relies on him so much and without aj brown in this offense anymore again you look at splits when either Smith or A.J. Brown were out last year, last few years, and they go through the roof. Plus 240 is just absolutely ridiculous odds for him. I would probably bet him all the way down to like plus 170, plus 160. Yeah, I mean, Goddard nearly tripled Johnny Mudd's snaps as well in week one. He is the tight end one in that offense. And I'm glad you brought up the splits without A Brown or Devontae Smith because that kind of been I think the best time to circle him and the fact that he scored two touchdowns last week and they haven lowered these odds I think the only reason why they have it listed this way because the production is there is they may think that this might be a blowout by halftime and then he doesn't really have to play as much in the second half. But I'm actually a little more bullish on the Titans. I think they'll be able to keep this a little closer. And that's why I love the Dallas Goddard bet, because they'll use him in fake end-arounds on the tush-push, shovel passes near the five.”
“This was my toughest game of the week to pick a touchdown score. And it was Bengals Texans. Uh, so this one after doing a little bit research and kind of getting into it, I went with T Higgins at two to one. Uh, that's who I like on the Bengals side.”
“On the Texans side, it's getting dry for pass catchers right now. Like Nico Collins might not play this week. Jaden Higgins got hurt in the preseason. it just it's not a good spot right now so I think on the Texan side it's it's Dalton Schultz or nothing for me um I know a lot of people will look to last week and say well everybody was all on the tight end with the Bucs with Kate Auton and he didn't really do much it's like well that was more of a Bucs problem more than than a tight end issue because they just were fumbling the ball it felt like every uh every drive but uh he is the clear tight end one in this offense there's not really much true competition similar to the way like dallas goddard is the eagles but when you're getting a tight end who's running a route at a 70 clip like that's pretty much just behind nico collins uh in this offense and he's probably one of the few pass catchers that cj stroud trust so uh if nico collins is out i like this bet even more but i think it's starting to be priced that way because dalton schultz when this initially opened he was around plus 310 and i'm seeing it right now around plus 240 plus 250 so uh get that in while you can because that probably will drop even more if Nico Collins gets ruled out. All right, Sean, we got you up next. Decent matchup.”
“I like this one. Saints-Bravens. Who do you like to score in this one? Yeah, for the Saints side, I got to go with my guy Juwan Johnson at plus 350. I loved him as a late round pick in fantasy just because I thought he'd get off to a hot start because their first round pick, you know,”
“And we are now at Vikings Bears. Grant, you got this game. Who do you like to score in this NFC North matchup? Yeah, this should be a fun one. I mean, it could go any numbers away. We obviously saw what the Bears did last week on offense and defense. This could be an incredibly high scoring game. It could be one where they end up struggling going up against Flores. But regardless, Caleb Williams to score plus 340 still seems too high. We got him at plus 550 last week, scored twice.”
“And then next up, Justin Jefferson. We can still get him at plus 180. What are they doing? Scored twice last week.”
“On the Steelers side, I'm going to go with Roman Wilson. Now, Roman Wilson, he hasn't scored a touchdown. He didn't score a touchdown in week one. He only scored two last year. But really encouraging in week one, he ran a route at a 61% clip. That's nearly double his rate from last season. and for week one at least against the falcons he was second on the team in targets for route run he saw an end zone target i also think that roman wilson will probably get a little bit softer coverage um compared to say dk metcalf or michael pitman i think christian gonzalez is going to follow dk as much as possible uh also with roman wilson i'm not sure if you guys noticed this just watching it like media coverage of the steelers i feel like every time i see an interview with aaron rogers like he's bringing up roman wilson or like shailene woodley like it's either one or the other so uh it's plus 750 i'm going full roman and i'm taking him to score a touchdown against the patriots now this one's an even longer long shot like this one is at plus 950 right now”
“against the patriots now this one's an even longer long shot like this one is at plus 950 right now at draft kings kyle williams with the patriots so if aj brown is out to me the opportunity is on almost all patriots wide receiver touchdown scores um williams he scored three times last year all on deep routes all in the second half of the season kind of when the patriots were starting to make that run and be at the top of the leaderboard in the AFC. I also think the Steelers are going to do whatever they can to try to lock in on Romeo Dobbs and make Drake may kind of have to look elsewhere with that deep ball. I'll be honest. I almost went barefoot and took Mac Hollins, but just kind of looking at Mike Vrabel and some of the quotes from this week, he kind of just talking about Kyle Williams, that he does expect him to be a lot more involved. So I'm going to drink that coach speak Kool-Aid. I'm going to take the long shot of Kyle Williams to beat them over the top at plus 950. So those are my two bets. Plus 950 for Kyle Williams and Roman Wilson at plus 750.”
“And then on I mean, on the charger side, we don't know if Lad's going to play. looks like he was practicing off the side he's dealing with a rib injury usually things like that they kind of just it's more of a pain tolerance thing and wouldn't be shocked if he plays so I'm just gonna go with him because if he doesn't suit up you get your money back it's voided and if he does I don't really like anybody else right now given the current prices so I'm gonna go with lad here who was just unbelievable before he did get knocked out of the game he had five catches 82 yards and a touchdown saw a target on 39 of his routes and again he he got knocked out so early he only played 49 of the snaps but we got to see kind of a glimpse of you know how he's going to look in mike mcdaniel's new scheme for the chargers so loved what i saw and again if i have to take somebody now it's going to be lad uh i saw plus 175 for him uh if he is ruled out i think trey Harris would be the guy to kind of target for, you know, sneaky upside.”
“well so all right uh now let's move to Jaguars Broncos rematch from last year Grant you got this one who do you like to score yeah starting off with Cortland Sutton I know anyone who watched that game is probably gonna think I'm dumb because I mean he didn't look great Knicks didn't look great the entire Broncos team did not look great but I'm not putting too much into that just week one sudden did play the most snaps out of any wide receiver i still think he's the wide receiver run one regardless of what brian did on the field he looked fantastic but sudden still going to get a decent amount of targets he's still going to be the go-to guy in the red zone if they ever get there um he he has over eight touchdowns per season each of or on average over the last three seasons he's a big red zone threat he can obviously take a long bomb waddle is not going to eat into that wide receiver usage or that red zone usage. I know last week I liked him and it didn't hit, but I still like him again this week at plus 230 And then on the other side Jacoby Myers plus 320 You can find that at the moment And Myers obviously had a touchdown last week The Jacksonville team just absolutely destroyed the Browns”
“but I still like him again this week at plus 230 And then on the other side Jacoby Myers plus 320 You can find that at the moment And Myers obviously had a touchdown last week The Jacksonville team just absolutely destroyed the Browns So, I mean, the snap rate was the highest out of anyone on any of the wide receivers at 65%, but they weren't playing guys like the last eight, nine minutes of the game. They brought in all the backups. So Myers is going to get a decent amount of play in this spot here. Washington, obviously the other main guy, but he's probably going to be matched up against PS3 for the majority of the game. So boost to Myers there. Myers, since he's been on this team in 10 games, he's scored four touchdowns. Obviously, prior to getting traded there, no touchdowns to the Raiders. And then 2024 only had four touchdowns to the Raiders, but they were a garbage situation. We have to remember, 2023, he had 10 touchdowns. He's a great threat in the red zone. He's a great wide receiver for getting touchdowns. And since he's been on the Jags, he's shown it there. So getting him at plus 320 in a spot where more volume is likely to go to him because of the matchup for Parker Washington just seems like it's a little bit too high.”
“All right. I've got Commanders Cowboys. I promise I did not pick this one. I was assigned this one. But on the commander side, I'm going Terry McLaurin. You picked him last week, Grant, in this spot. And he got completely blanketed by Quinone Mitchell last week. Had like two targets total. But for me now, you're facing the Cowboys. And I think it's safe to say the Cowboys have no one in their secondary that is on that level of Quinone Mitchell and playing that kind of defense. So with Terry, I mean, he played the most snaps. He ran the most routes, just didn't see many targets in week one. But I mean, this Cowboys pass defense, we just watched the Giants just completely dice them. It's a bit of a joke overall, considering how much was hyped in the offseason about their improvements and the spend and what all the different ways that they were going to improve. And then week one, just a complete dud. I do think the defense will improve in week two. But again, the Giants did whatever they wanted. I think the commanders will be able to do almost anything they want against this defense. So if you're going to give me a wide receiver one against this Cowboys defense at plus 200 or better, I'm going to bet that almost every time.”
“On the Cowboys side, a guy that I'm starting to get a little more into, especially last year after he scored four touchdowns for them, Ryan Flunoy scored four touchdowns last year for this Cowboys team. And that was in a bit of a lesser role because he was playing behind Jalen Talbert. Even Kevante Turpin was kind of getting more snaps than him last year. But now he's now elevated into that wide receiver three role on this team. He played 71% of snaps in week one. He ran just as many routes as tight end one Jake Ferguson. So with the commanders, which is different this year under Dan Quinn, they went completely zoned against the Eagles with the third highest rate of too high safety in week one. And if they go that route again in week two, I think that's super good for Flannoy because he is in his career. historically has seen that uptick in targets when facing zone and two high coverages so i think the commanders defensively they're going to be focused very heavily on stopping cd lamb and george pickens so i think that'll open up flower uh to get his first touchdown of the year you can get that around plus 350 right now for ryan flannoy okay uh next game we are on now to dolphins 49ers”
“that around plus 350 right now for ryan flannoy okay uh next game we are on now to dolphins 49ers and kerner you got that one what do you like in that game yeah so for the dolphin side i i I do like Caleb Douglas here at plus 500. Looked great in his debut, five catches, 94 yards.”
“And, you know, for the 49ers side, I love Debo Samuel at plus 215 because, you know, the Niners are huge favorites here. Should be a more run heavy conservative game plan. I think that does help Debo. You know, he's going to get plenty of targets underneath. he could take those of the house even probably going to get a couple design rush plays uh and with you know scribbling out tongas is out george kittle's still going to get eased back in i don't think they're going to unleash him just because tongas is out uh they're playing the dolphins you know they're jet lag so i think this could be a good debo game and he's even returning kickoffs so one more path for him to potentially score here so i just love the price for getting it plus 215 yeah the the price on Debo is the one that kind of makes me confused because”
“All right, Grant, you are up, and now you've got your team, Seahawks. Seahawks-Cardinals, who do you like in this one to score? Yeah, starting out with the Cardinals side after they upset the Chargers, who looked terrible last week, but we won't get into that. McBride, plus 245. way too high of odds here way too high dude had 11 touchdowns last year i had one last week got 13”
“And on the other side, JSN plus 135. Why are we getting it at plus odds? I don't know. Like, I get that Drew Locke is going to be throwing in the ball. I get Drew Locke's a pretty decent downgrade from Sam Darnold. But he is going to throw the ball to JSN a ton, just like they did with Darnold in the offense last year. In this first game, 11 targets for JSN. He had over a 40% target share in this offense, 24 total passes and 11 targets for JSN. They are going to just hammer the ball to him. The Cardinals defense, not that great. So JSN, this should be not plus odds. And we're getting plus 135, just absolutely silly.”
“the prime time games instead of assigning each a game to us i think we should just do a parlay for each one of those we'll each give a touchdown pick uh for each prime time game here so let's start with sunday night football colts versus chiefs i'm going to start with rasheed rice scored a touchdown against the broncos uh i feel like the the chiefs offense didn't even really hit their stride of what they wanted to do and they still put up 30 plus points on that team i think they could score a lot against the colts they'll move rasheed rice around to get him away from sauce gardener as well so that's who i like to score a touchdown colts chiefs grant who do you like to score a touchdown in this game uh i'm going with keenan allen um good old good old old man keenan allen uh played a decent amount we didn't really know what was going to be like obviously got signed a month ago there was injuries with pierce like all sorts of things that just threw a bit of an unknown into who's going to play how many snaps in this offense. And pretty clearly, they're ready to give Keenan Allen a pretty decent role. He had six targets last week, played 67% of snaps, had a target in the red zone. And historically, he's been a guy that you get close, obviously, they want to run with Jonathan Taylor. But realistically, he is going to get some usage in this offense. He's going to get some snaps. He's still an incredible route runner, even in his old age. And he's reliable in the red zone. So getting him at this high of odds, true odds should be around plus 350. Rasheed Rice, Keenan Allen, Kerner, who do you like to round out this parlay? Stick with my guy, Tyler Warren here at plus 250. You know, somehow he was able to score last week, despite Daniel Jones is looking awful. And, you know, I expect Spags will probably have a solid game plan this week that will make Daniel Jones look bad again this week. but even Bo Nix had an awful game against the Chiefs on my football and Evan Ingram still managed to go off for four catches 43 yards and touchdown so maybe you know the tight end is the way to kind of attack this defense so you know not thrilled about how the Colts offense look but if I have to go somebody it's going to be with Warren here at plus 250. Beautiful okay so when you put those three guys together Rasheed Rice Keenan Allen and Tyler Warren that parlay for Sunday Night Football between Colts and Chiefs, 39-1. I like that one. That one's pretty good.”
“All right, guys, before we get out of here, we're going to give our favorite touchdown score parlay for the week presented by DraftKings. It could be from any game, and we're going to parlay them together over on DraftKings. Kerner, you are up first. What is your favorite touchdown score for week two? I love Debo Samuel at plus 215, so I have to go with him. The Niners are huge favorites here. I think that sets up perfectly for him. You know, more passes underneath, more design runs for him. And he looked great. He got targeted on 44% of his routes in week one. You know, Stribling's out. Kittle's still getting eased back. So just love Debo's upside here at plus 215. Grant, who do you like? I'm going with Jetta, Justin Jefferson. Again, I don't know why he's priced aside. I don't know. I mean, I know that Wentz is not great, but he's going to lock in on Jefferson. He has every single game they've ever played together. He should get around 10 targets. He's going up against a defense that just got crushed by Bryce Young last week. So Jetta plus 160 or so is way too high. Yeah, and I'm going to take Trey McBride. I'm sorry, Grant. I got to hijack your pick here because this guy is just the – that's my flag plant guy. That's the one who I still think anytime you can get his odds over plus 200, you need to bet that because even in week one against the Chargers, four red zone targets, two inside the 10-yard line. You know that he's going to get spammed with 10-plus targets with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. And the Seahawks' defense, while they are fairly strong, you mentioned it, over the middle and against tight ends is kind of when a little bit of a weakness on that front. So Debo Samuel, Justin Jefferson, Trey McBride, if you parlay those three right now at DraftKings, you can get at plus 23.50 to cash that parlay. So those are our favorite touchdown scores for Week 2, presented by DraftKings.”
The percentage is the prediction-market entry price. Parentheses show derived American odds, rounded to the nearest whole number; fees are excluded. Quote annotations are ours, and the original wording is preserved.
This entry comes from the on-air quote; a later market snapshot is a separate observation. Exact capture time unknown.
“[33:17] Yeah, it's trading at 50% (≈ +100) on pilot market. That is going to be our Brass Balls Trade of the Week presented by Piley Market. If we're going to start playing the Chiefs as we always have, then we fade Patrick Mahomes when he's a favorite of three or more points. Because historically, everything with Patrick Mahomes gets inflated, and we're seeing that with this. So it just makes sense. If we believe in the Chiefs, then we're going to have to fade the Chiefs when the numbers get inflated and unusually high. Indianapolis Colts, 6.5% (≈ +1438), 50% (≈ +100) on Polymarket.”
The percentage is the prediction-market entry price. Parentheses show derived American odds, rounded to the nearest whole number; fees are excluded. Quote annotations are ours, and the original wording is preserved.
This entry comes from the on-air quote; a later market snapshot is a separate observation. Exact capture time unknown.
“[32:50] And the fact that this number is so ballooned up, I just, I can't help but take this one, especially on this Sunday night. So, yeah, this is a game. Obviously, I got a really respected group back in this Colts team. Got an earful about it and a sharp calls. And it's one where it's like, okay, I see the light. I'm not going to overreact too much to Jones' injury. And the fact that you can trade this right now, I'll probably mark it a plus six and a half at a decent value. I'm going to take that every time. Yeah, it's trading at 50% (≈ +100) on pilot market. That is going to be our Brass Balls Trade of the Week presented by Piley Market. If we're going to start playing the Chiefs as we always have, then we fade Patrick Mahomes when he's a favorite of three or more points. Because historically, everything with Patrick Mahomes gets inflated, and we're seeing that with this. So it just makes sense. If we believe in the Chiefs, then we're going to have to fade the Chiefs when the numbers get inflated and unusually high. Indianapolis Colts, 6.5% (≈ +1438), 50% (≈ +100) on Polymarket.”
“[1:11:55] The winner, Ravens Eagles six-point teaser, taking them down to Ravens minus two and a half, Eagles minus one. Minus 134 is the number I got.”
“[36:11] and the Ravens can obviously they can win with Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry doing all the damage and but it's still you'd like to have if you're going to back a favorite of over a touchdown you'd like yep some passing to be a part of the equation the Saints are off of an overtime game 11 and 21 ATS first half the next week for teams that are off of an overtime game I like laying the five and a half in the first half with the baltimore ravens i think that the way to play this game we three games in we don have a nomination yet”
“[1:12:06] 10 commandments i do like the dolphins in the first half this is my other first half bet that i have this week plus seven and a half in the first half if the 49ers do have some of that travel brain fog i think we see it early plus seven and a half in the first half guys they've”
“How about Caleb Douglas of the Miami Dolphins? I love Caleb Douglas. Dude, he's awesome. Yeah, I made it for 50-plus receiving yards. It's greater than plus 140 right now, last I saw there at BetMGM. And I really don't understand why that number is so low. I think the books are just kind of slow to take here. He was the main man in the eyes of his quarterback, that being Malik Willis. I know it was the Raiders. And the Dolphins are going to be downright terrible. but seven targets, five grabs, 94 yards, didn't find the end zone in week one, but a very high yards per route run. He was top 10 in that category. He was top 10 as well in Yak for reception. He was top 15 in total area yards. Miami is going to be down multiple scores in every damn game this year. They're 12.5 point dogs against the Niners, and he's probably going to get a lot of Lenore in coverage, who gave up a 66.7% catch rate in week one in that land down under matchup against the LA Rams. So Caleb Douglas got to come out smelling like a rose in garbage time. 50 plus receiving yards. Again, plus 140. I'm in.”
“Colston Loveland, anytime touchdown, plus 155. I'm out! Brad Evans joining us on the show. I like the Colston Loveland thought, just like goose eggs last week and they scored 59 points. You would imagine Ben Johnson's going to try and get Colston Loveland the rock on Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings. We have some breaking news out of the world of college football that we will hit at the top of the next hour, and it involves Bill Belichick and the University of North Carolina.”
“Just put it that way. So before we get to tonight's game with the Lions and the Bills, I kind of feel compelled to talk about both the Cowboys and the Giants now after the way we opened this interview. And we'll get to the Giants and the Rams on Monday Night Football in a second. I think, Rob, just from a football fan perspective, it is hyperbole to say this, but not by much. The must-win game for both these teams. And I did a bunch on that topic yesterday on the show. I do think the Cowboys are going to win. I think that George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb are going to be the difference in the game against those undersized Washington corners. But why can't Jaden Daniels and the commander score a ton in this game and keep this game close? So I think this is going to come down to the wire. I think Dallas may win by three. I like the game to go over the total. But I think Washington's going to cover the spread. What do you make of Cowboys commanders? Listen, you got the better of me in week one. So Nick won, Pizza Man zero. But I'm on the opposite here. I laid it with the Cowboys. my number was closer to five in this game I took some three and a half on Dallas I understand all the reasons”
“Doug, why don't you kick us off here? Who do you like? Okay, so obviously there's a bunch of different angles with these trends. Week two, you touched on it. For me, it's the Bears, that game. I like the Vikings and the points. Now, there's always an element of trepidation, right, with Carson Wentz figures to be the starting quarterback. But once he got acclimated, I thought he looked pretty good. And especially when you get these situations where a guy is thrust into the middle of the game versus in this case, I think he's going to have a full week of practice. Right. I'm not expecting Kyler Murray to go. So I think it's going to be much more conducive. The play calling will be conducive to his strengths and what he wants to do. But in terms of those trends, road dogs between one and six and a half. So like under a touchdown, right? They're 44 and 17 against the spread over the last decade in week two. I just think it's one of those things where I think Chicago is getting a little too much love. And I still think their defense gave up, looked horrible. And I still think the offense looked great against partly because of what, you know, Carolina's defense is. I just think it's too many points. So I'm taking the points with the Vikings. Obviously, Florida's going to want to blitz Caleb Williams. Maybe he's got some bad habits of trying to extend plays too much in the pocket and go off script. I think it's just a way where they're going to keep this inside the number. Yeah, this is the way that I would look. Look, the Bears' offense, they put up, for what it's worth, they put up 59 points. Teams off of 50-plus point wins historically, they're just 33-33 against the spread, so there's nothing really there either way. But unders, though, 38 and 28 in those games, 57.5%. But, I mean, look, the Bears' defense is really, really bad. So it's hard to ask them to win by margin. Yeah, they did it last week. But there was, what, a muff punt. There was a roughing the passer. There was a number of different plays. I mean, look, they got three turnovers. And they made Bryce Young look all-world, right? Yeah, I mean, they did whatever. But there's, look, they're not going to get a ton of pressure. The secondary's really bad. Maybe there's some, I don't think Kyler Gordon's ever coming back. Maybe there's some hope that Xavier Woods, who's hurt, comes back at safety. And then you move Cam Lewis to the slot. Malik Muhammad, maybe for Tyreek Stevenson. But even Jalen Johnson looked like completely washed out there. Like, there's not much hope for this defense. I'm still shocked they didn't trade for an edge rusher so you're going to be able to move the ball on this team small sample size but teams who score at least 40 and win by over 20 in week one four and 10 ATS since 2010 so and then when they're the favorite it's two and six so obviously small sample size but there's a definitely like bears feeling themselves a little bit now they this is a home opener look the line jumped uh right I caught like two to three like two points and part of that is like and one of the reasons you mentioned like score over 40 win by 20 like there's a lot of people are like number one the market reacts at number two no one wants to fade that team that looks so good but here's like is there really a big i'm struggling with this but is there and there's a chance mary plays it's slim but but is there a really a big difference between Wentz and Murray right now. I mean, Murray didn't look... Probably not. Yeah, I mean, look, Wentz knows, has been in the system, right? Has played under O'Connell. Murray, it's like a different looking offense with Murray. So, I mean, if you look, since the start of last year, Wentz ranks 19th in EPA per play among 40 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks. That's better than Kyler Murray. one spot behind Caleb Williams for what it's worth. And what they did in the second half last week is, and look, the Vikings offense was ugly. They averaged 3.9 yards per play. They averaged 19 yards per drive. That was the fewest of any team in the league last week. So they got super fortunate on third down, super fortunate with turnover, super fortunate in the red zone. But their offense definitely looked better in the second half when, we talked about this in the leadoff to start the show, But O'Connell went more under center, more play action, more multi-tight end looks, which I think all can work against the Bears because it was like Murray and shotgun. And that's just like not where the league's headed. It's a different looking offense. And Murray just didn't look comfortable yet. It's probably going to take him some time. So I don't know. I could argue that Wentz, he's hard to gauge because sometimes you see him and you're like, oh. but then like last week he was he was made all the throws he needed to and looked better than I thought Murray did early on so I don't know if it's that much of a drop-off and but look but there is a drop-off from Wentz to Kayla Williams right like that's the concern is you have Ben Johnson you have a much better quarterback there's a chance like the Bears are just that good and but there's a chance you can lose any wager in the NFL so I just think there's a little line value here And I think the spot, as much as a spot can be good in week two, I think it favors Minnesota. Yeah, that's the I'm probably going to play as I'm trying to figure out if like Murray gets officially ruled out if this ticks back up. Yeah, it's a good question. I don't know. I mean, it's also where the original number is, right? Like it's not on three. So obviously four and a half, it could move to four or five. one way or the other.”
“Yeah, I like Houston at two and a half.”
“oh, you haven't given your second pick yet. Where are you going for your second pick? Yeah, so I mentioned that sharp group. I had two plays. One was the over on Thursday Night Football. The other one was Arizona, but I'm on Seattle. I like that side. It's official. Sam Darnold's not playing um drew lock and he only had one shaky throw and that was at the end of the first half but i thought the second half he was on point and full week of practice seattle i think will be ready to rock i think it's obviously the obvious flat spot of arizona and again i didn't think they played that great um they're obviously a competent offense with height with you know they can do some things on offense downfield but i think the seattle defense is special i think drew lock i'm not like Darnold was great last year but I think a lot of that was the system and Kubiak I mean I I think I think Locke will be fine I think Locke will be fine it's a short enough number with that defense um I'm not worried about like a flat spot off the big win against New England because it wasn't that big of a win for them um I I think it's a short number here three and a half I I'm surprised I disagree with you uh I think I'm gonna be on the Cardinals here um I just I”
“Demetrius Knight, Dexter Lawrence, Boye Mafé, and this Bengals defense travel to Houston this Sunday to take on C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. Houston, about a two-and-a-half, three-point favorite in the game. We're kind of bouncing in between those two numbers as it stands right now. As I load my screen, and it takes forever because it always effing does. Houston, two and a half, 46 and a half is the total. This is an exceptionally interesting game. The Texans defense, I expected, and many people expected coming into the year, to be one of the best units in the NFL, if not the best. And then they went out this past Sunday and got annihilated by Josh Allen and the Bills. Allen sliced and diced them, made them look silly. And yes, Kamari Lasseter had a chance for the game-winning interception, the clinching interception. Also, Allen tore them up the entire game before that and then threw the touchdown right after it. It was a miserable performance by the Houston defense. Houston opens the season with two home games against AFC Super Bowl hopefuls, right? In Buffalo and Cincinnati. If they lose both, they're 0-2, and again, two home losses to start the year, and against two of the better teams in the AFC. Or at least on paper, two of the better teams in the AFC. This is an enormous game for the Texans, and specifically for this defense. If they get lit up by Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase and T. Higgins and Chase Brown on Sunday, I know it's early. I might be willing to throw in the towel on my Texans Super Bowl pick for them to go to the Super Bowl and win the AFC. they absolutely must play better. They must. And the Texans, they might need C.J. Stroud this Sunday against Cincinnati to play like he did last week against Buffalo, if that's what the defense is going to be. So, like, the Texans are kind of, like, hanging by a thread right now. Because it's one thing to, like, if they had lost this past Sunday, like, 17-13. Okay, like, you don't like that. Obviously, you don't want to lose. But at least the defense did what the defense is supposed to do. if this defense is going to get smashed all season and they're not going to be what they thought they were, and instead of the first, second, or third-ranked defense, they're like the 13th-ranked defense in the NFL, they ain't going anywhere, and the Jags are going to win this division. Now, I've got the confidence in the Texans on Sunday. I do think the Texans are going to win. So, two and a half, I'll lay it with the Texans. The Texans are my pick in confidence pools to win straight up. Straight up! I do like the Texans to win. But you know, like, we get deep into the second quarter, and the Bengals already have 17 points.”
“want to do. I do want to talk about New Orleans as an eight and a half point underdog at the Ravens. And if you look at this game that the Ravens, that the Saints played against the Lions, their defense was not terrible against the Lions. You see that they were down 21 points. You see that it went into overtime and they gave up 31. The first half in Detroit, and don't forget, Detroit has Jameer Gibbs and Monra St. Brown. They've got elite, all-pro caliber skill players. first half detroit had six punts one long drive and detroit was ahead seven nothing they took the lead in the second half because they had two short fields on turnovers that led to back-to-back touchdowns then the saints came back against a very bad line secondary so now we got zay flowers who left the game after 150 yards receiving uh in the second quarter the other day against the Colts. We don't know if he's going to play, but a twitchy wide receiver, would they risk making it worse with a hamstring injury in week two in a home game against the Saints? They're also without their wide receiver three in Jacoby Lane. It could be Elijah Surratt time who didn't even play in week one. He was inactive. Could be the new active receiver for them. All the tickets are on the Ravens. But on the prediction markets, it's actually more expensive to take the Saints, meaning the professionals are on the Saints here. I'm on the Saints in this game.”
“I'm actually on the Saints. I'm just kind of hoping it may go a little bit higher with all the public coming in and overreacting to the Ravens. And we're strictly betting on the backdoor here. We're strictly betting on the Ravens taking the foot off the gas because they don't have the weapons. and the Saints never stop never stop and it doesn't matter if Chuck there's three picks I mean he looked deader than dead in that first half couldn't believe it I was like my god were we were we so wrong about predicting him being another step this year and being better this year with all those offensive weapons and then thank god second half look a totally different team I mean they put up 30 points against that Lions team that yes we think their defense is suspect but that's really tough to do when you're down 21 to come out there and just keep slinging to not give up and you know veille looks like a great number two to a lot of it and i mean even johnson the tight end looked great so the saints got some weapons i'm really excited to see what mentor does here for the ravens defense and um shocked by this line thought this would be a classic protected teasers maybe the books get up to seven seven yes the fact they moved across the key number of eight to eight and a half. I can't believe it. So a little worried here because it feels too easy. I don't know who's betting the Ravens professionally. It's just such an inflated line. So it just feels like another pros versus shows. Public all over this Ravens team. They'll be in every money line teaser, every parlay. We'll take Shuck here with this Saints team against what looks like an absolute juggernaut on the Ravens.”
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“uh pittsburgh at new england another one we talked about it on sunday night the line was at five and a half then you indicated this looked like a spot where we had might want to make an early play on pittsburgh simon what say you simon says give me pittsburgh plus five and a half all right simon says, presented by Polymarket, the Pittsburgh Steelers, currently trading at 50% (≈ +100) at Polymarkets.”
“outside of the Vikings and Bears what is your favorite bet coming up this weekend in the NFL and why it is the New Orleans Saints plus the eight and a half points i mentioned when you asked for tier one contenders and i mentioned baltimore first um and that i think correct but uh not expecting zay flowers in this one jacoby lane has a broken wrist so this all of a sudden the uh you know passing offense for the ravens is going to be tested immediately i think the saints on the other hand, the kind of snapping out of their funk in the second half against the Lions is positive signal that they're going to be able to go into Baltimore and at least mount a challenge. My fair for this one is on the other side of seven. I got involved at nine. I think eight and a half is still a fair play. And in general, I think the Saints have another close call where ultimately they are very competitive but may not get the win. I did kind of in general think that there”
“Okay, Monday Night Football. Let's move to that one. Giants, Rams. I'll start off again. He didn't score in week one because the Rams overall just looked like dog turds. I'm going to take Devontae Adams to score a touchdown. I still think the Giants secondary is one of their weaker points of their defense, and I think the Rams, they're just too good to be shut out like that again on offense. So I'm going to take Devontae Adams to score a touchdown. Grant, who do you like to score a touchdown for Giants-Rams? I'm going with Darnell Mooney. You can find him around plus 900, plus 700. I can't remember. Odds move with time. But he played 57% of snaps last week, which is actually more than Malik Nabors. Had two targets. He's two years removed from a five-touchdown season with the Falcons. He's good. He's still a decent wide receiver. And getting him at these high of odds, the Giants offense, obviously they want to run the ball a decent amount. but most likely the Rams are going to put up more points than the Cowboys did. They're probably going to be forced to throw the ball a bit more in this spot. Obviously, it's a tougher matchup for neighbors going up against McDuffie here, so Mooney should get a little bit more volume. He can always break one for 50 yards for a touchdown here, so getting him at these high of odds seems a bit too high, plus you stole the guy I wanted to bet on, and that's Adams. Well, I still like the Mooney pick. I mean, a nine to one, I feel like he's still a pretty effective wide receiver. He just hasn't played with decent quarterbacks really in his career. Sean round us out here Who do you like to score in Giants ramps I going to go with Isaiah Likely at plus 270 I know you were on him against your Cowboys Jill so that was a nice cash last week But, you know, similar to Juwan Johnson, I thought that he would have a ton of upside early in the season while Neighbors is, you know, coming back from this ACL recovery. You know, he was kind of limited in week one, so likely, you know, stepped up with the big two touchdown game. But, you know, likely he's always been super talented. He was just stuck behind Mark Andrews. And now that he's the guy on the Giants, I think it's still, you know, we still have a window here to kind of invest in his upside. So like him here at plus 270. All right. So if you pair Devontae Adams with Isaiah Likely and Darnell Mooney for Monday Night Football, that parlay comes out to boys 75 to 1. doesn't feel unrealistic at all. I love these odds here at 75 to one for Monday night football.”
“Because I'm taking the Yankees. I am rolling with the pinstripes. Game one of the AL wild card tonight against our hated rival in the AL East, the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees are the favorite at minus 145. That is the pick of the day.”
“[58:25] Kendra, what is your plant-the-flag bet this week? [58:28] My choice is a little bit chalky, [58:30] but I'm going to go with Georgia to win the SEC. [58:32] They didn't have a ton of roster turnover, obviously, coaching continuity. [58:35] As far as I'm aware, there's no true freshman going to be starting on defense, [58:38] and I don't trust Arch Manning. [58:40] So I'm going to go with the chalky choice here in the SEC [58:43] and take Georgia to take it home.”
“[55:43] I'm going to get this one out of the way because it's going to otherwise sound like I'm stealing from our great guest Joe DeLeon. [55:48] I like Darian Mensah and the Heisman as well. [55:52] 12-1 on DraftKings. [55:54] The last four Heisman winners have been transfer portal babies, so there's some sort of trend that's forming there. [56:01] We also have a healthy rotation of different conferences that have been represented over the last couple of years. [56:06] everybody but the ACC. [56:08] So it's their turn to step right up. [56:11] He's got elite weaponry with Malachi Tony. [56:13] The team should be good. [56:14] He checks a lot of those boxes for me. [56:16] So I'm with you, Joe. [56:18] Let's go ahead and hammer that Darian Mensah future bet.”
“[56:22] Yeah, I think that I was debating maybe pitching one of my picks [56:26] for one of these conferences. [56:27] But the ones that I feel vindicated in are like Miami to win the ACC [56:31] and Texas Tech to win the Big 12. [56:33] But that's not fun because their odds are, I mean, it's minus 145 for Miami to win the ACC and it's plus 100 for Texas Tech to win the Big 12. [56:42] I'm going to stick with the Darryl Mensah take because it's one that I have been planting my flag in.”
“It was my very first total play of the year, and I bought it back in, I think, March, which was under eight and a half, under nine is what I bought it back then. I am not a believer in what's about to happen this season.”
“[21:26] Would you bet Buffalo missed the playoffs? [21:28] Yeah. [21:29] I feel like if you're like so committed to their under, [21:33] then you might as well take it a step further. [21:35] It's literally just the schedule. [21:37] I respect Josh Allen. [21:38] I respect who he is. [21:39] I'm just so sick of having the conversation of he's the best ever. [21:43] And I think that most of that is their fans [21:45] and the fact that their fans are insane. [21:46] But I just do not believe in this team this season [21:50] for everything that I just said. [21:52] And it's hard to convince people of that [21:54] because they do hit that win total every single year. [21:57] and he is incredible and pulls games out of his ass. [21:59] But new coach, I just, it's a big question mark for me [22:03] in a season where I think the AFC is going to be so hungry. [22:07] Plus 255 to miss the playoffs.”
“[42:43] John, what about you? [42:44] You're going to sell it? I mean, I don't love this, but I'd go miss the playoffs. [42:48] I would just follow the trends of Super Bowl losers and the hangover that is real and spectacular. [42:54] Again, Patriots are a better team on paper, but there's some elements you don't like. [42:58] I'll say miss the playoffs.”
“[1:07:09] All right, I'll piggyback off of that. [1:07:11] Jets to finish third plus 100, [1:07:13] which both of these could happen, by the way.”
“[54:30] But this is the only way to bet that you got to get creative. [54:32] If you're going to bet the jets, Kendra, you, uh, you like they're over [54:36] sort of, I think. [54:38] And early's Kenyan [54:40] Sadiq overs on touchdowns. [54:41] What about you, John? You've planted [54:43] the flag on the under. [54:45] Under big, and I'll take it a step forward. [54:50] I don't think they're going to end up with the [54:52] worst record in the league, but I'm going to go [54:53] and bet them to do it, because the number is really, really [54:55] good. And it's the Jets.”
“[59:55] this is one of those bets where I think, I think it's smart to pick a couple of teams [1:00:00] that nobody expects to make it to the post season. Just plant your flag to use the branding of this [1:00:06] show on those teams at a really good number. The Titans plus five 50 to be a wild card team is a [1:00:14] really fun look. Now it's specifically to make the wild card. You actually get a better number on [1:00:19] them as specifically a wild card then to make the playoffs is plus 340 they're not winning this [1:00:25] division if they sneak in it'll be via the wild card plus 550 titans make the playoffs i'll cross [1:00:32] my fingers on that one uh though it'll be a long shot jamal st cyr sports anchor for wjxt4 in”
“About a month ago, our friends at BetMGM, I fired off on the Rams to have the most wins in the entire National Football League. Got that at plus 850.”
“I'm not the biggest Zach Taylor fan. Has he taken a team to the Super Ball? He has. Has he won games in the playoffs? He has. I'm buying Cincinnati. They will be a playoff team. They will win double-digit games. They will be heard from in the month of January. That's team number one.”
“Dallas will win double-digit games. Dallas may have the same problems come playoff time. That's not the feature of our buy-sell segment, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls. It's about getting to the playoffs. It's about winning double-digit games. I'm in on the Dallas Cowboys.”
“I am going to sprinkle them to make the postseason.”
“New England is not going to win the AFC East, and they are a prime team to miss the postseason. With that schedule, knowing they're not winning a division, do they get to enough wins to be a wildcard team? I am going to say no, they do not. I will bet New England to miss the playoffs. Therefore, we are selling stock in the 2026 Pats. One down, two to go.”
“the Bears and just the idea that, hey, how do they do this again? Ben Johnson's tremendous, tremendous offensive mind and did a great job in year one. Go shut me up. Go shut me up. That's my advice. I'm going to trust Priors on this. And that's why I'm going to fade Chicago here as far as making the postseason in 2026.”
“[59:13] So for me, Kendrick. [59:14] Carnell Tate offensive rookie of the year? [59:16] Okay, I like that. [59:17] I think, is that, would you say, best way to bet the Titans? [59:20] Carnell Tate offensive rookie of the year? [59:22] I think so. [59:23] I don't mind that at all.”
“[29:19] Yeah, totally. [29:20] He had that crazy run. [29:21] So the hype can't be any higher for me. [29:26] Like I bet them at 25-1 Super Bowl odds.”
“[52:09] Alright, I'm not saying this just to suck up [52:10] to you guys, but I think the best way to bet [52:12] the Jags this year... I have a couple. [52:14] I'll save one for the end of the episode. [52:16] But let's go all in. 30-1 [52:18] to win the Super Bowl. Those odds”
“[34:20] I'm still going to, [34:21] I'm still going to bet the chiefs just because that's to me, [34:23] that's good. [34:24] Which one? [34:25] 13 to one? [34:28] Yeah. [34:29] I bet my home Superbowl. [34:30] It's just because you know what, [34:31] you know what, [34:32] Anything I'm going to get 10-1 or better on Mahomes, I'm going to take that bet.”
“[48:52] So, yeah, if you don't like 13-1, I've seen for Mahomes coming off a major knee injury, 100-1 to beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl. [49:01] I love that bet, Simon. [49:02] It's on my list, and I made it.”
“[58:47] Now, she did make it sound like the Miami Dolphins were going to win the Super Bowl. [58:52] But even though she's the clairvoyant one, I can't buy into that. [58:57] We had fire. [58:58] We had water. [59:00] The Super Bowl is in Los Angeles. [59:03] The Chargers have a lightning bolt. [59:06] I feel like I got to do something with the L.A. Chargers, but I don't really think they're going to win the Super Bowl. [59:11] I'm kind of buying at least to a degree. [59:13] you have to buy into the fact that the Rams have the most loaded roster in the NFL. [59:17] So this will be the only position I take on the Rams because they are overpriced pretty much everywhere else. [59:22] Rams over Chargers is 75 to 1. [59:26] The all LA Super Bowl held at SoFi Stadium.”
“I think it's like 5-1 odds, which is also the same odds the Rams have of winning the Super Bowl. And I grabbed that at plus 750 about a month ago.”
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“be cautious with the team They played Jacksonville this week and that probably is going to be more of a watch and learn game for me i will say with the chiefs i mentioned creed humphrey uh the way that they blocking i like buying him for protector of the year at three percent (≈ +3233) in the prediction market adding to our position there i had him seven percent (≈ +1329) before the season and his odds have dropped the way that they're blocking he's the top center in the league and last year in that market we chose two centers two guards and”
“So I'm going to give you two bets coming out of this one. Here's your first one. Here's a crazy bet. At 125 to one, could Arizona win the division? I don't think so, but Miles Garrett is hurt and Sam darnel is hurt that's pretty important players in the division and they're playing seattle if you're arizona you get to play seattle without darnel this week you might get to 2-0 they're about 5 percent to make uh to win the division at ftn at 125 to 1 here's the analysis no nfl team in history at 1-0 should be 125 to 1 to win the division i don't care who else in the division who's on the roster. I gave you a quarter unit nibble. That's a bet at that number. But this is about the Chargers. This is a bad loss for the Chargers. This was the easiest game on their schedule. A home game against the Cardinals team that I know I just bought a division ticket on, but that is supposed”
“give them 29 to make the playoffs that's lower than the jets and the giants chargers to miss the playoffs at minus 120 that's the bet this is real the chargers already are in big big trouble this”
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“good here and so to kind of put a cap on the division if we're selling high on jacksonville if we're buying low a little bit on houston i think this is a great spot where jacksonville at denver they could lose the game houston tough one against cincy but they could win that one they're the home favorite there ftn has the texans at 50 to win the division we can bet them at 41 percent (≈ +144) in the prediction market i'm gonna bet that 41 it's about a plus 144 if you really like houston they're five percent (≈ +1900) at dk predict right now to win the super bowl i think that might be a”
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“about the bucks i'm going to double down actually the whole division is 0-1-1 so they're still leading the division right now this was my favorite bet before the season i'm going to take the box in the division at 34 percent (≈ +194) of the prediction market plus 194 implied ftn has the bucks at 60 in the division i have them even higher than that this is a fine loss they lost by one score on the road as underdogs it's totally fine with me and now this week they play the browns they get a bye week in week two the worst offensive line in the league against todd bulls deshaun watson's funeral in all likelihood at plus 194 34 this is still a spot to if you haven't played yet join us i bet this for my biggest bet of the preseason i gonna add to it i doubling down bucks in the division in the NFC South Boy not a lot has changed through one week in the season with all of these teams dropping one”
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“I am your weekly stock analyst, Brandon Kravitz. And here we have my favorite buying opportunity that we will then look to sell at a later date. I bought into this in the preseason. I'm buying more now so that I can sell some later so that we're not stuck with an old stock by the end of the season with no return. Sonny Stiles, defensive rookie of the year at 10% (≈ +900).”
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“Sonny Stiles, defensive rookie of the year at 10% (≈ +900). He already flashed his brilliance in week one. He had one of the highlight plays of the weekend from any rookie in the NFL. Blew past the offensive line. Saquon Barkley picks him up as a blocker. Just gets absolutely wrecked, leading to a Sonny Stiles sack. after Frank Louvoo left the game. He played every snap in the second half. One sack, two tackles for loss, and they get the Cowboys this week in that four o'clock window. Pass happy bunch with a running back that doesn't break tackles in Javante Williams. This is on national display. He will shine, and you will never see 10% (≈ +900) again. So we're going to buy in now. The schedule does stiffen up a little bit later on in the season, and I think there are a lot of rookies that can make some noise. So buying Sonny Stiles now and selling probably by the week seven buy. Yeah, I like Sonny Stiles. That hit that he had this weekend, like you said, man, that was maybe the highlight of the weekend as far as just old school hits. I think you've got the right market here and even the exact right price, but the wrong guy. I'm going to buy a Reuben Bain stock, the Bucs edge rusher, not because what we saw in week one. You want the highlights for Reuben Bain there. You just saw them. That's it. Nothing happened. No tackles, no pressures, no QB. hits and guess what happened his price plummeted down to 10 he was the favorite a week ago and he just had one bad game it's a long season this is overreaction in the market because the bangles offensive line pretty solid amarius mims swallowed him up amarius mims is the best lineman on that team you know it doesn't have a great offensive line the cleveland browns the team that the bucks are playing now who have the worst line in the league let's find out what bane does after that I don't think we're going to get this price again at 10% (≈ +900). And again, as we send Deshaun Watson out the door so we can get to Shadir Sanders after that, we'll see if he even finishes that game. So I bet before the season, David Bailey, he was the second favorite behind Bain. I'm going to take this chance to add Bain to my portfolio, 10% (≈ +900). We get those two guys together basically to combine like plus 300 now. I think I'm set up pretty well. You got your linebacker. I don't mind it. I'm going to play Bain.”
“This team, I believe, has a big issue. Now, not a big issue in the sense that they're going to miss the playoffs. and just like look at what happened to the AFC West this weekend. The Raiders beat the Dolphins. Congratulations to them. The Raiders are not a good team. The Chargers looked as bad as you could look losing to Arizona and the Chiefs just pasted the Denver Broncos. So this is not like the Chiefs can't win the division. I think they absolutely, I pick them too, I bet them too, I think they absolutely will win the division.”
“the Jaguars in this spot, this is where I can take the Jaguars. I'm also all in on the Jags. I'm all in on Trevor Lawrence. I bet Trevor Lawrence to win the MVP. I bet Trevor Lawrence over on his passing passing yards. So, OK, if I go down in flames with the Jags in week one of”
“All right. I'm deeply invested in you are doing a three-team, eight-point, on Polymarket, they call it combo. Historically we called this your teaser Tell me your three teams your eight points The same rules apply to combos as to teasers for me Let's see how I grade it. Let's see what you got. So we're going to go Detroit, get them up to plus one and a half, and then Green Bay. Don't love Jacobs and Micah being out, but plus ten and a half, it's the Vikings, I feel like. They're in a fair spot. And then lastly, we've got the Broncos against your Chiefs at 10.5, plus 10.5. I mean, listen, Green Bay and Denver are great legs.”
“like as the guy the head coach i think there's a chance this is just not it and the core is rotten there because i have them last it's a pretty easy bet least wins in the nfl 11 to 1 cleveland browns if you want the sure outcome just under five and a half they've only gone four overs in 18 seasons here in cleveland if you really want the sure bet last in the division minus 190 but you know with me i like the longer shots 11 to 1 it's not the most brutal schedule first seven games they get”
“Sloick and the rushing game I think that could be fun I think that could be creative so my bet here is Malik Willis most quarterback rushing yards at six to one at DraftKings his last five starts as an NFL quarterback 53 yards a game rushing 15 games of that even if he gets that”
“me more pause than even the ankle injury would yeah and i bet algier 28 to 1 to lead the team in touchdowns that kind of gives me a different alternative outcome here as well i think there are a lot of concerns uh james connor trey benson i was out on love as the running bear as the rookie”
“but now we're getting almost double that. So I can, I can handle that. Well, if you've ever wondered if you've taught me anything over the short time that we've worked together, I have a one offensive rookie of the year bet and it's on Dejan stripling at 13 to one. So tip of the cap to you for showing me the ways of the long shot. All right, let's go to the next”
“of the league there's a lot more down than there is up on that so Panthers under seven and a half this is my favorite win total on the entire board so this is going to be an easy under for me I'm”
“Five and a half is about my projection for this team.”
“for the one season they're bound to be together. So Titans under six and a half, easy choice for me. I think this really would be five and a half in any other division.”
“last three years i know they didn't have a quarterback in cleveland but guess what you don't have a quarterback in atlanta either so i just i don't know where to buy on this team and then on defense the whole thing was sort of smoke and mirrors last year built around this speedy pass rush it didn't work at all against some teams some teams that hit like my Vikings I did not enjoy that one last year but the speedy pass rush is gone Jalen Walker torn ACL out for the season James Pierce eight game suspension that's your two draft picks last year in the first round you don't have those for half and all the season so this was number 12 DVOA defense I don't think this is anything close to that this year I have them closer to bottom five so it's another under for me under seven and a half and uh especially while Tua plays and wins the job by default I think we're racking up losses early and then you have some options even if Penix looks decent later”
“with your side in week one let's move on to the final team in this tier the commanders feel like one of the least talked about teams in the NFL. The bloom is off the rose in a very big way. They made it to the NFC title game in 2024, and they just fell off a cliff last year. I think that was pretty easy to see that this might happen for them, even with all the money they spent in free agency. But why don't we like them now as a bounce back candidate? Yeah, because I think the team is more than Jayden Daniels, and that's the problem. The offensive line already might be done with Laramie Tunsil out for the season. that if you look at Brandon Thorne and PFF, the top offensive line experts out there basically downgraded them into oblivion. Like PFF even has them dead last offensive line. So look at the roster. If you don't have a great offensive line anymore or even a good one, I don't know if there's really an NFL starting running back or tight end on this roster right now. I kind of like the receivers just fine, but they're on the older side, Stephon Diggs and Terry McLaurin. So you have a quarterback and two receivers and that's your offense. So this is not flag football. You got to actually use the other eight guys out there. And then the defense, I actually really like Durante Jones, the new coordinator, but just not much talent there. You sign a bunch of veterans, but you're counting on Rasul Douglas and Amik Roberts in that corner. Durante Jones is in the florist tree, so he's going to bring the pressure. He's going to mix it up. But as a Vikings fan, I've seen that happen. You bring the pressure and don't have the talent to get there. Your guys at the back better be doing the thing. And if Rasul Douglas and Amik Robertson aren't covering guys anymore, that gets really ugly at times. So there is another team here, great special teams, Larry Izzo, the coach there. So I like your quarterback. I like your special teams. I don't like anything else. It's another under for me, under seven and a half. And for this one, it's scheduled as much as anything. You start out at Philly, at Dallas. That is not a way I want to start my season. If I'm trying to break in new play colors, both sides of the ball, then Seattle.”
“you want to get the ball is Brock Bowers. I think he's going to have a monster season. An article go up yesterday with three tight ends, Bowers, Colson Loveland, and Sam Laporta, guys I'm betting on. So that's the bet here. I bet a bunch of Bowers stuff over 82 and a half receptions. I like him to lead tight ends in receiving yards plus 350 at DraftKings. I think”
“you want to get the ball is Brock Bowers. I think he's going to have a monster season. An article go up yesterday with three tight ends, Bowers, Colson Loveland, and Sam Laporta, guys I'm betting on. So that's the bet here. I bet a bunch of Bowers stuff over 82 and a half receptions. I like him to lead tight ends in receiving yards plus 350 at DraftKings. I think he might lead the league in receptions at 25 to one. I think he has a huge season. He's the guy,”
“i can get back to believing the packers but for right now this is the easiest no bat team on the board for me on the futures you just can't invest when there's no parsons no jacobs no tucker so my bet here is packers last in the division at plus 350 at draft kings but even that you're starting at Vikings. But if you win that one, then home Jets and Falcons, you might be three and oh”
“know if Leonard can do that we haven't seen it yet so coming out swinging here shouldn't be surprised at number 18 Buffalo Bills to miss the playoffs plus 280 is my bet I wanted to make this bet with the Chiefs last year and I chickened out because how do you bet on Patrick Mahomes to miss the playoffs I didn't do it and then it wasn't even close it was like an easy bet the entire season so I'm doing it this time my numbers have the Bills missing the playoffs it's a rough start”
“Sertan hold up so offensively that's where there is some upside I like Jalen Waddle I love Jalen Waddle I took him 125 to 1 offensive player of the year I bet him 60 to 1 to lead the league in receiving yards I love his upside here completing the receiving room and now you have Davis Webb”
“going to look like. So I think it makes them a bit more volatile. I'm still going to back Denver also to miss the playoffs at plus 134. Part of it is a schedule here. At the Chiefs, week one, Monday night, Jacksonville Rams, at Niners, at Chargers, and Seahawks. Again, you could be like”
“liam cohen i think trevor lawrence is breaking out i love parker washington and the receiving group i bet him i think chris rodriguez could lead them in touchdowns 11 to 1 at draft kings that's my bet for this team they remind me some of the bangles in the past where your offensive”
“that joe burrow t higgins jamar chase why did i say them in that order i don't know jamar chase then t higgins obviously joe burrow to throw 400 yards in any game this season at minus 130 draft kings that's my bet for this team i think that should be more like minus 300 so if you want an easier one that's an easier one here but i can't get too far offensively till i see them actually”
“offense. I'm taking O'Mearian Hampton and all my fantasy leagues. I want Ladd McConkie stock. so i took lad mcconkey 150 to one offensive player of the year 62 and a half receptions i'll took the over on that one we mentioned waddle earlier he's another offensive player of the year bet 125 to one nico collins 40 to one and parker washington 400 to one that was my opoi bets i want the”
“year this year i think we flipped why did we flip this thing and lower the win total when they're healthier this year with better guys so i think we're getting value on the number we're getting value on the division i think the bucks are alive for the nfc one seed 30 to one i bet that a little bit. I had worst protector of year. You're lame duck Todd Bowles. I bet him for coach of the year at 2% if that stuff all hits. I think the Bucs could be in the NFC championship game at the end”
“So I kind of want to be on the Cowboys, but everyone else is. And I think it's all priced in. The bet I made, and will stand by, is I took the Cowboys to win the NFC at 13-1. Here's the thing.”
“I think there's a lot here, but there's a lot of regression signal for me. I'm going to keep the bet very easy. If I'm that far out on the bills and the jets and the dolphins speak for themselves, I have to take the division bet plus one 45. It's a two team race. We all agree on that. And I love the escalator here. You can go exact division order Patriots one bills too. We all agree on that part. I like jets ahead of the dolphins three and four. So you get that one, two three four in order is plus 450 i think that's a good way to bake in some of the unknown here but get it to pay off for you yeah i uh i saw the uh there was a bet out there for the jets just to finish in third place at even money i i love that because any i think any direction that you go in the afc east the jets are going to end up third but the patriots are they're a really weird team because of the way that they they overachieved last year yet got significantly better and have an ascending roster talent wise the very tough read but i like the way that you”
“tackle sooner than we think oh dunze burden at receiver the guy i love is colson loveland i gave him out as the touchdown leader for tight end at 11 to 1 at draft kings 70 catches or more”
“things the run game is really good it's a top 10 offensive line trapillo might be back at left tackle sooner than we think oh dunze burden at receiver the guy i love is colson loveland i gave him out as the touchdown leader for tight end at 11 to 1 at draft kings 70 catches or more as well on the over i think loveland has a huge season like you said the defense you add devin Bush, you add Thienemann in the first round, you're supposed to get healthy in the secondary.”
“the eagles i'm skeptical but i'm skeptical every year and they usually still find ways to figure things out my bet here is there's a book out there you can bet first team all pro give me lane johnson at five to one first team all pro we go by left tackle and right tackle lane plays right tackle he's been first or second team four straight years when healthy the three second teams on there he lost to tristan wirfs left tackle now and panay sewell left tackle now so we took the competition away let's give our guy a legacy pick on the way out i bet him five to one creed humphrey at center three to one kyle hamilton plus 320 those are some of the favorites that's who should win these awards we know who wins first team all pro so give me some lineman odds here on the eagles”
“Delane. I trust him to find answers. I think this team is going to be good again. I think people just don't want them because we're sick of it, but I think the Chiefs are good and we know they're good. So plus 180 to win the AFC West is the bet here. It's partly a schedule bet. They start out home for Denver Indy then at Miami and Vegas that feels like 4-0 into the bye week for me”
“He's the entire rushing attack. He's the guy you're building around. That's my bet here. I think the answer is no. Jadarian Price, under 800 rushing yards at DraftKings. That's my Seattle bet.”
“game at some point that better not be what costs you a game in the playoffs here's my bet on the team and i'll close with just like a big picture of that i have the the west basically even at the top seahawks rams and niners so i think the rams are being priced too aggressively give me the rams third place in the west just light at plus 400 it's a tough opening schedule you're in australia then you come back no rest for the giants then at denver at philly buffalo is a rough way to start the targets on your back you can only get worse big picture this is my number one team I have them three points to the spread ahead of the field But comparatively to recent years”
“That's the value. Go get your Bucs division ticket. I like the Packers under nine and a half wins, and I'm going to go ahead and sprinkle on that last place bet at plus 350. They just lost too many pieces on defense. They lost their last five games last year without Micah Parsons. Well, he's on the shelf to start the year. You have the Josh Jacobs news and the fact that I love the other three teams in this division. This is one of the easier bets that I have placed.”
“All right, let us go coast to coast with DraftKings, which is now live in all 50 states. Here's a look at the odds to win the NFC East. at DraftKings. Eagles, the current favorite, plus 122. Cowboys plus 184. Commanders and Giants are both 6-1 to win the division. Jeff, Saturday, who you got? I'm going Eagles here, and we talk about this all the time. O-line, D-line. I think in the division, this team's got them both. I mean, when you look at their offensive line, I think one of the top three offensive lines in the league and defensive line I would tell you about the same. So, you're going to win games in the NFL week in and week out, irrespective of all the rest of it, start with the O-line, D-lines, and I like them both.”
“i told you that in the discord we are voting on the futures bets that we're putting into our portfolio and it came down to cincinnati over philly uh in the super bowl and denver 20 to one to win the Super Bowl. And you made the case that we should also put in Denver over Philly at plus 210 and replace it with the replace the Broncos with that bet. So I put it to a vote. The discord voted. We replaced Denver 20 to one with Denver to beat Philly at plus 210. So congratulations. Your influence is being felt. Thanks, Chad.”
“I'm not backing off it. I said it all offseason that the Houston Texans can absolutely win the AFC. Let's put our money where our mouths are. Houston goes into Baltimore, beats the Ravens on Championship Sunday, beats the regular season MVP this year. I think he wins a third in Lamar Jackson. and the Texans are your AFC representative in Super Bowl 61.”
“are we doing this price is not going to be out there again and again i'm betting both the guys mahomes 17 to 1 lamar 11 to 1 those are my top two mvp picks outright”
“are we doing this price is not going to be out there again and again i'm betting both the guys mahomes 17 to 1 lamar 11 to 1 those are my top two mvp picks outright”
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“So AFC North is Baltimore at 47% (≈ +113). So, again, just so everybody can follow what that means, that is an implied, you know, the 53 divided by 47, so you're getting around plus 113 on Baltimore to win the division. I would be, I, so you're getting plus money on something that I would be shocked if it doesn't happen.”
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“AFC West, Kansas City at 36% (≈ +178). So again, you probably can figure that out in your head that you're getting a little worse than 2-1. 36% (≈ +178) is plus 178. I think the Chargers are vastly overrated, and I think the Broncos are very good, but I think there's going to be something of a regression in the one score game stuff and I think the Chiefs are going to win week one in Denver or at home against Denver and set the tone for the entire division for the entire season and so because of that I am you know I like Kansas City they are the favorite to win the division but they are not a huge favorite to win the division and So I like Kansas City at 36% (≈ +178), getting like plus 178.”
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“So let's go to the NFC team that I will put money behind. Got the Tampa Bay Bucs at 35% (≈ +186) for the NFC South. Yeah. Listen, I know everybody says that this team, this division's wide open and there's no great team. I still believe in Tampa.”
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“the bucks at 35 and then in the afc west of monza another 35 and that is seattle yeah i mean i just think they are wildly underrated for a Super Bowl champion. That's all. But for a Super Bowl champion that brought almost everybody back, that feels like it is disrespectful.”
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“Philly we've got at 57% (≈ -133) you want just all three of them right there 57% (≈ -133) means it's minus 130 I for Philly to make the playoffs I love that I wouldn't mind it at 60% (≈ -150), which is minus 150.”
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“I wouldn't mind it at 60% (≈ -150), which is minus 150. Same thing with Denver, which is the next one, that trading at 57 which is again minus 133 to be exactly I think they a buy at minus 140 I just think both those teams have such solid offensive and defensive lines that I really like them to at least have a floor of tennis wins.”
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“First, you got Minnesota at 60% (≈ -150). So Minnesota missed the playoffs at minus 150. I don't believe in Kyler. I think that division is too tough. I don't think the defense will be quite as good. So I will lay some juice there. Minnesota missed the playoffs 60% (≈ -150) on Polymarket, which is minus 150.”
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“You got Pittsburgh at 63% (≈ -170). So that's minus 170. That's right about the upper bound. I wouldn't do it at minus 180. But I think Pittsburgh is – my only trepidation is if I'm right about Cincinnati not being as good as people think, could Pittsburgh slide in there? I would set the over-under on Aaron Rodgers starts this year at 12.5 to Monse. And so I just don't trust that team. So I'm good with them at 63% (≈ -170), about minus 170 to miss.”
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“San Francisco said at 44% (≈ +127). So again, if people, it's 56 divided by 44. So you're getting like plus 128. I CMC you saw the efficiency dip last year. Now the overall production was unreal but it's just they just kept going to him. I think they're going to miss Robert Shalem. It's not that I'm doubting Shanahan here's the thing the Niners when they're not good they really fall apart.”
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“Green Bay is at 37% (≈ +170).”
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“Green Bay is at 37% (≈ +170). I mean, if you can, if that means you're getting plus 170 on Green Bay missing the playoffs. And so Green Bay, the Chargers, and Cincinnati are all trading on Polymarket at around 36, 37, 38% (≈ +163), which is all around plus 170. At other places, you're getting way worse numbers.”
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“Green Bay is at 37% (≈ +170). I mean, if you can, if that means you're getting plus 170 on Green Bay missing the playoffs. And so Green Bay, the Chargers, and Cincinnati are all trading on Polymarket at around 36, 37, 38% (≈ +163), which is all around plus 170. At other places, you're getting way worse numbers.”
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“He's got the Eagles at 12% (≈ +733), and then the Seahawks at 16% (≈ +525). So again, just so everybody understands what 12% (≈ +733) means, so that means I'm getting the Eagles at about plus 730, and I'm getting Philadelphia, which is at 16% (≈ +525). I think that's, is that exactly the, hold on, sorry. The Seahawks at 5 plus 525, essentially, to win the conference.”
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“I think the 2-3 in Philly and Seattle are undervalued. Does that make sense? I think there is way too much. I think the Rams are great. The Rams can win the Super Bowl. There's no doubt about it. But the Rams are such prohibited favorites that it's pushed everyone else's odds down to a point to where I think Philly is worth it at 12% (≈ +733) and the Seahawks are worth it at 16% (≈ +525).”
“However, I am only allowed one official Super Bowl pick. And Demonze, trust me on this, I didn't see this coming either. But in a trilogy, Part three, Chiefs-Eagles in the Super Bowl is my official pick. And Kansas City wins the rubber match.”
“So five to one at those odds. And like Chad said, it's come down now. It's a lot of books have moved to four to one on this team. So hopefully you can still get five to one and shop around. But yeah, it's one of my favorite bets just because of the upside there is with Kyler and this team.”
“So they're a team I'm heavily invested in. If Denver comes through, just like the Eagles two years ago, turning whatever it was, 5,000 to 300K, I'm in the same boat. I basically have a couple thousand invested in Denver in their Super Bowl matchups, and their returns will be in the high six figures. So I'm excited to get when we go through our favorite long shot Super Bowl odds. But yeah, divisional odds, no doubter. Bet this at three to one. You have to respect this team.”
“I was giving out Niners at 3-1 for this division. I really shifted my bets to the Seattle Seahawks at 2-1. That to me is where the value is at this point.”
“has never worked out so could the Rams be the first team to do it yes but me and Chad have been very open here I'm zero dollars invested in anything positive Rams and everything I've invested is just them to miss the playoffs it's really uh a team that I've just stayed away from just because the value is just not there betting wise well look the the bottom line is”
“So that was just the only guy I've honestly invested in this award because there's so many names I couldn't really get there with everyone else. But at 75 to one, it's like Caleb. He's got all the weapons. He's got all the tools. This feels like the perfect bet for what I predict is him taking that next step.”
“but to me yeah i know so mentor 10 to 1 i feel like that's that's fair odds and um i'm i'm happy to bet that right now on a guy i just think the media is going to fall in love with he could turn this Ravens team around?”
“yeah for passing touchdowns i did kyler at 50 to one oh that's funny those odds it's just those are insane odds”
“Receiving yards, we talked about this with Derek Brown the other day. Luther Burden, 50-1. Same logic is why I like the Bears to score all those points. Same logic is why you like Caleb at 75-1 for Offensive Player of the Year. Luther Burden was coming on so strong in the second half of last year. And this season, Roma Dunze is not going to be the deep threat guy. It's going to be Luther Burden. And Luther Burden is also very physical. So to see Luther Burden in this offense for a full season, starting from the beginning, not having to sort of play second or third fiddle to a Dunze or DJ Moore, I think he's going to be such a weapon for Caleb. So I got him at 50 to one.”
“So for me, my number one pick is AJ Brown. He is 20 to one, the league, the league and receiving yards.”
“This is why like i i'd rather bet denver to beat the eagles or denver to beat seattle those are the bets i've made um like i've said i have not invested in any other nfc teams i haven't invested in the rams i've only invested in seattle and the eagles so um people are going to see my pattern here pretty sick pretty simple here with my exact bets my super bowl futures and i just at those odds 210 to one that's that's a nice nice bet there on uh denver and i believe there are it's gone way down it's 101 for them to beat the seahawks that's just how much the books like the”
“All right. So go ahead. You're asking me what I would, I'm not betting Denver straight up. This is why like i i'd rather bet denver to beat the eagles or denver to beat seattle those are the bets i've made um like i've said i have not invested in any other nfc teams i haven't invested in the rams i've only invested in seattle and the eagles so um people are going to see my pattern here pretty sick pretty simple here with my exact bets my super bowl futures and i just at those odds 210 to one that's that's a nice nice bet there on uh denver and i believe there are it's gone way down it's 101 for them to beat the seahawks that's just how much the books like the”
“does like the raiders so i am going to go a different direction uh i saw this bet and i took it on the divisional podcast i was on a few a week or so ago i'm gonna bet it again i like the Cardinals to have more wins than the Dolphins uh I saw it at plus 140 you say plus 140 uh that”
“s1 and we're doing predictions week on the show and when i gave my nfc east prediction i had the new york giants winning the division and i'm enough of a gambler to know that they're six to one to win the division and so that's a little bit out there don't worry i put my money where my mouth was”
“I'm going 10-7, and this is going to be an official prediction. The Bears over 9.5 wins.”
“So this is another one where I guess I didn't follow my own rules because I called this an official prediction, but I do only have them winning 11 games, but I am going over.”
“You got San Francisco. Their win total is nine and a half. Yeah, I don't love their personnel on defense. I, you know, they're asking a lot of Deshaun Stribling on that right wide receiver, rookie Deshaun Stribling for the wide receiver room, along with aging Mike Evans. I worry that McCaffrey off the usage he had last year has diminishing returns this year. Obviously, I think Shanahan's a great coach, but this is an official pick. I have them going eight and nine. so I'm under for the Niners.”
“I'm actually going to bet two of these guys. Give me Chiefs running back Emmitt Johnson, 100 to one.”
“what if genti gets hurt a little bit longer and washington has looked awesome 50 to 1 i'm gonna add that to the portfolio to me this is a must-have long shot ticket if you're a portfolio kind of guy because the upside is really obvious with mike washington”
“I think this is a no-brainer pick of these options here it's jeremiah love all the way plus 550 at draft kings”
“so in the end I'm just gonna take the top defender on the board give me David Bailey for the Jets five to one the number two pick in the draft”
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“I will take one guy here, my top guard this year quentin nelson for the colts coming in at a four percent (≈ +2400) prediction market”
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“So he was my pick last year. He's 7% (≈ +1329). We're going to run it back again with Trent Williams.”
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“my guy the one you alluded to at the top My number one pick here, Tristan Orfs. Clearly the best guy on the line on what I think could be the number one line in the league and a team that I think can win 10, 12 games and win their division. So we're going to be talking about Tristan Orfs. I think this is a great way to invest in the Bucs. We talked about it with coaching that there's not a lot of great award recognitions for the Buccaneers. Dominating with the line and Tristan Orfs being awesome would be a great way to recognize them. So at 8% (≈ +1150) on the prediction markets, he's an easy buy for me. he'd be my top winner pick.”
“I'm seeing him around six to eight percent prediction markets kind of got a weekend push there is a plus 2200 out there on daniel jones that's more like a four percent implied that's a bet for me so we'll take a little taste of jones”
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“He's at 2% (≈ +4900) the prediction marker right now. So it'd be real dumb for him to win this same award three times in six years. It's a dumb award. Give it to me, Joe Burrow. So I'll bet Burrow.”
“I've got two AFC futures, Super Bowl and Conference, and they are the Chargers and the Texans. And I know you're wavering on the Texans, so I have to do some work to keep you on that bandwagon as well. But I bet both of those Super Bowl and Conference. So I haven't talked a lot about that on the show.”
“I've got two AFC futures, Super Bowl and Conference, and they are the Chargers and the Texans. And I know you're wavering on the Texans, so I have to do some work to keep you on that bandwagon as well. But I bet both of those Super Bowl and Conference. So I haven't talked a lot about that on the show.”
“I've got two AFC futures, Super Bowl and Conference, and they are the Chargers and the Texans. And I know you're wavering on the Texans, so I have to do some work to keep you on that bandwagon as well. But I bet both of those Super Bowl and Conference. So I haven't talked a lot about that on the show.”
“I've got two AFC futures, Super Bowl and Conference, and they are the Chargers and the Texans. And I know you're wavering on the Texans, so I have to do some work to keep you on that bandwagon as well. But I bet both of those Super Bowl and Conference. So I haven't talked a lot about that on the show.”
“So to me, it's these two guys, Anderson plus 750 Hutchinson plus nine 50. Those are just far too long for me.”
“So to me, it's these two guys, Anderson plus 750 Hutchinson plus nine 50. Those are just far too long for me.”
“Yeah. So I've got four guys left. We're going to bet all of them here. And again, we're kind of sprinkling long shots here. So you're going to get some long prices. And again, if you're looking for fancy advice, these are my guys I'm going for here. I'd probably have Puka and Chase in a tier at the top, Puka ahead. Then I'd go Amon Ra, St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, JSN, and Jefferson. Hey, there's our first name. Nico Collins, I think, should be right in the middle of that group with that next group. And I've bet him on this award before. I'm probably just going to keep on betting him. He's 40 to one, and he absolutely belongs in that group talent-wise. And look, there's nobody else to throw the ball to in Houston. Higgins is hurt. We got Kendrick Bourne now. I think that's good because it takes a little pressure off of him, but you're going to pepper the guy that is your top target. And last year, he had a 10-game stretch where he was pacing for 1,425 yards, 150 targets. 2023, he had four games, 145 yards or more. We've seen him four stretches play at this level. We've just also seen him get hurt every single year and not have the stretches continue. Well, I want the ticket for the year that he finally stays healthy and at 40 to one we're not pricing it right he should be half that price at basically price like Lamb and Jefferson and Jason that's why I told you those names as peers because we know they're going to win in Houston and we know that they're going to have to throw the ball sometimes and Nico's the target out there and if the line gets any better if the run game gets any better that can actually open things up and actually give him some of those downfield targets that Stroud hasn't been able to throw before so if we get to 17 games or even close there i think this guy has 2 000 yard potential i think you get to 15 touchdowns he would absolutely be in the mix to me very easy bad here as much upset as anyone in in the second group but we getting double the price It 40 to one So Nico Collins that my shortest option on the board I'm going to bet him.”
“Jalen Waddell, 125 to one. He's in my top five most likely offensive players of the year. I can't believe we're getting this price.”
“easy to see 10 targets a game we need him to stay healthy if he gets that sort of workload keenan allen is gone there's plenty of balls to go around there i'll take a chance at the mcdaniel weapon”
“and then the last guy here that is just buried down the list he's not even listed at some books give me parker washington 401 from downtown gave me the liam cohen power slot last year we trade for Jacoby Myers kind of settles this wide receiver room out and so Parker Washington settles in late and look tiny sample I know the last four games of the year for Parker including the playoff game he would have averaged out on pace for a 1930 yard season and 13 scores you look at Liam Cohen the history the man loves his power slot in college at Kentucky wandale robinson over 100 yards a game from the spot cooper cup 2022 with the rams he was the number one fancy receiver for eight games then he got hurt he was on pace for 150 catches and 1700 yards in this role chris godwin two years ago wide receiver two in fantasy through seven games then he got hurt 1400 yards 120 catches and 12 score pace you might not think parker washington belongs in this mix i don't really either but did you think that about chris godwin or cooper cup or Wondell Robinson. Like this is about Liam Cohen and that power slot rule. You get Brian Thomas Jr., the sacrificial axe, just like stretching the field. You get Jacoby doing the dirty work underneath and you get Parker just making us money, hopefully in between. So I don't know if he's able to do it, but it's 400 to one. We'll take a shot.”
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“so there's my first bet i can't believe it give me todd bowles for coach of the year and we're going to prediction markets here so give me the two percent (≈ +4900) on todd bowles here”
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“I'm going to take Shane Steichen from the Colts as well at 3% (≈ +3233).”
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“and my favorite of the guys here is your guy Brian Schottenheimer six percent (≈ +1567)”
“today we're taking houston texans offensive coordinator offensive coordinator nick cayley 45 to one actually the shortest of our long shots here”
“Next up, Patriots defensive coach, Zach Kerr, 50 to one.”
“Pittsburgh Steelers defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, 80-1. Technically, we're cheating on this one.”
“Three more, Calvin Shepard, defense, Detroit Lions, 50 to one.”
“Saints defensive coordinator Brandon Staley 55 to 1”
“and then my favorite out of these six our guy Clayton Adams with the Cowboys 50 to 1 a bullseye”
“the big takeaway for me with kyler murray is i am much more in on jordan mason this year i think this offense could be much more run heavy i'm betting the jordan mason rushing yards overs for a team that was 19th and neutral passing rate 16th and pass rate over expectation last year.”
“I think they have a very high floor I'm going 10 and 7 and the last but not least my only bet of this division the New York Jets total is five and a half I have them going four and 13 That's enough to put a bet in. It's also, you know, plus one. It's even money, so it's a little juiced to the over. I will take the Jets under five and a half wins.”
“Baltimore Ravens total is 11.5 I think the Ravens are going to be outstanding this year you can get plus money on the over plus 115 that's a bet for me I have them going 13-4.”
“Cincinnati's total is 10.5. It is juiced to the under. I think Cincinnati is a 9-win team, so that's also a bet. Cincinnati, under 10.5, paying the minus 140.”
“So only one over for the AFC North, Baltimore. Under for Cincinnati, under for Cleveland, under for Pittsburgh, but with bets on Baltimore over 11.5, Cincinnati over 10.5, Pittsburgh, I'm sorry, Cincinnati under 10.5, pardon me, Pittsburgh under 8.5.”
“But so our bets there are the Texans over the Jags over Texans over nine and a half Jags over eight and a half the Colts and the Titans both in under but not bets.”
“But so our bets there are the Texans over the Jags over Texans over nine and a half Jags over eight and a half the Colts and the Titans both in under but not bets.”
“Over for the Chiefs, 10 and a half, and maybe a little taste on the Chiefs at plus 200 over 11 and a half.”
“The Chargers under nine and a half with, actually the bet I want to make is Chargers under 10.5 at minus 160.”
“I'm going under five and a half wins plus money. Level three lock. Let's go all the way up.”
“you have some options there I'm going to give you my first official bet of the year I'm taking it Joe give me the Jets 50 to one just a nibble just a little bit sure I think that is the wrong price and I think this is a team that is worth investing at least for a week and we'll see what happens from there”
“The Bucs probably are going to be my favorite division bet. If they're that close to the Saints in the odds, but I like the Bucs a lot better, I'm going to take the plus 185 on Tampa.”
“total eagles the last two years but what if it's not the eagles again what if we bring the stat back let's start a new streak giants island plus 600 at draft kings let's go”
“Best futures bet to win the championship, in my opinion, that would be the Oregon Ducks at around plus 750. What not to like You have a future first pick a quarterback who got plenty of experience You going to be a double favorite in 10 of the 12 regular season games you play One dog spot that on the road in Columbus against Ohio State And on top of that, the biggest problem last year, the defensive line. That problem has been solved. This team is absolutely stacked this season. Plus 750, I'm all over it.”
“Win total for UNC this season, 5.5. We're going under. Second season under Bill Belichick. Few things to like, or dislike, I should say. Going to be underdogs in 9 of 12 games that they play. Schedule's brutal. 11 of those 12 games are against Power 4 conferences. Roster better, schedule more difficult. Harry Douglas, you with me on the under 5.5? Or are you against me? Yeah. And I should say 4.5, excuse me.”
“Harry Douglas, you with me on the under 5.5? Or are you against me? Yeah. And I should say 4.5, excuse me. Not only am I doubling down, I'm going to go ahead and, you know, escalate it a little bit. I'm going to triple down on it.”
“USC is going to kick off their season under head coach Lincoln Riley. They be taking on San Jose State Win total this year for the Trojans sits at eight and a half I bet the under here which means I need eight or fewer wins which means I need four or more losses I see them losing to the big three that are on their schedule Oregon Ohio State and Indiana.”
“Lincoln Riley and the Trojans, since they've joined the Big Ten, have had a lot of trouble traveling across the country to the Eastern time zone. Jordan Rodgers are you doubling down on USC under eight and a half wins I am not doubling down I'm going to take the over and here's why I agree I think there's a chance that they lose to Oregon Ohio State Indiana but don't count those out if you look at last year their four losses they scored 24 points or more in all those they scored 32 points and still lost to Illinois they scored 24 points and lost to Notre Dame like this is a team that can put up points with Jade Maiava and if Gary Patterson, the new defensive coordinator, can get them just a little better, a touchdown better, four points better on that side of the game. A couple of those losses turn to wins, and with that type of firepower at quarterback, you can beat anybody, right? They were really close to Oregon last year, even though the defense was really bad. So I think it's a marginal. I think they can get to nine wins, though.”
“I'll tell you the team that I'm looking at as sort of the long shot. And that's the Houston Texans, right? I think they're like 16 to one right now. jay mac like think about the formula that we've seen work in the nfl over the years right like in the super bowl defense matters a ton it might not matter as much through the regular season but rushing the passer matters so much in those big playoff games we like their head coach right to mika ryan's all he's done in houston as winning he'll continue to evolve as a coach it comes down to cj stroud if we believe stroud will take the next step as a quarterback be more consistent and play better in their big games like one of the things he does he doesn't really play on the losses there's not a loss where you're like man he did for 350 and four touchdowns and oops they just lost and if he gets better with an improved offensive line with the weapons they have they address some of the running game in free agency like they are a live team i feel like if they're if you think they're going division right they'll have a home playoff game or a couple home playoff games so to me like the value in houston is there as super bowl champion i think the rams are the rightful favorite but if you're looking for a wager right now i'm taking houston”
“Right off the top, I'm going MVP, and I'm going with Joe Burrow. Now, this is not that bold, considering his odds have moved more than any other player for MVP. You could still get him about plus 835. That's where I got him at. I think this is a great bet. Burrow's schedule is incredible, really lines up well. Again, if he's not healthy, they're not winning, and he's obviously not winning MVP. But when he is healthy, the numbers he puts up are staggering. Last year, he had to put up astronomical numbers because the defense was horrible. This year, the defense should be improved. They got a lot of new guys. It can't get much worse, right? I do believe Burrow is in the mix to win that division. I think this is an 11-win team, and I like Joe Burrow winning the MVP as my first bold prediction.”
“If you like the Cowboys, that could be a way to invest. To me, I would lean over eight and a half, but I don't think I want the median outcomes on this team. I think if you want to believe Dallas, you go long tails, right? You got to go in. You got to do the thing. And I know it's been like 30 years since they've made it past the second round of the playoffs. NFC ticket 13 to one at DraftKings. I think that maybe is the way to go. If you like Dallas, I think you can talk yourself into this being the second NFC favorite after the Rams. And I think if you want to buy it, you've got to buy big, not just median ground. I agree. I think you want to buy the tails. I did bet some at Plus Money then to make the playoffs.”
“So I already bet some Vikings to make the playoffs. I like this team.”
“We have our DraftKings favorite bet from the NFC East or North. I will let you do the honors first. Well, if I'm going first, I was looking at Giants division, Vikings division. But if I get to go first, I'm rocking the Vikings jersey today. I got to stick with my team. Give me Vikings to win the NFC North.”
“I will. Let's make it a Vikings podcast. I'm going to go Vikings to make the playoffs. I think that it's too good of odds.”
“I think we can definitely bet them throughout the year. I'm in the awards market as well. Give me Dijon Stribling, offensive rookie of the year, 13 to 1. Put it in the app.”
“Well, as far as the over-unders, I first want to also sprinkle in the Jadarian Price Offensive Rookie of the Year.”
“But the Seahawks, 10 and a half. I'm going to take the over. That's my, I'm planting my flag on that. 10 and a half.”
“Kendra, best way to fade the team that you are not buying. I'm going to assume that the 11 and a half even money that you can get. I gave it out months ago. I know that this number is probably just going to get better as time goes on, but I am very much in the camp that whoever wins 10 games is going to win this division. I'm standing 10 toes down on that. And also, I'm sorry, Matt Stafford is just old. Like he's got to start to look his age at some point. Like it comes for everybody, man. Yeah, him too, man. And can't get out of his own damn way. So I just, there's too much crap going on here. Plus one Oh five on draft Kings for the under 11 and a half. That is tempting. That is tempting.”
“I am going to look the way of the MVP market. I like Brock Purdy to an NFL MVP. I think when you look at his efficiency over the last couple of years, he's been elite. Best quarterback in the NFL in terms of pressure to sack rate. that means that when he needs to complete a pass and he's got a face, a guy in his face, he's able to do that. EPA per play on third downs, number one in the NFL. And when CMC inevitably gets hurt, he will get all of the credit for their offensive success. Give me Brock Purdy, NFL MVP, plant the flag.”
“Our favorite bet from the NFC West or South, sponsored by DraftKings. Colonel, what do you got? I'm going to go with the Panthers under seven and a half wins. You know, Bryce Young still really hasn't making that leap I wanted to see from him for being, you know, first overall pick. They're already dealing with injuries. You know, both tackles are going to miss the first handful of games at least. They just lost their third-round pick, Chris Brazel. I thought he was going to be a downfield threat for them. And for finishing first in the division last year, they've been gifted the fourth toughest schedule in the league. So give me the Panthers' fade. I'm going with under seven and a half wins here.”
“I'm going to go with the Bucs. I don't mind that at all. I'm going to go with the Bucs to win the division. I just want that in my portfolio.”
“Now, bet number two, you guys know that I'm all in on USC. I have bet USC to make the playoffs.”
“10 and a half is plus money. You can bet over 10 and a half wins if you want at plus money, or you can take the safer route and go over nine and a half wins at minus 160. DraftKings has that. Other books have it. Bengals over nine and a half wins at minus 160.”
“Betting under 10.5 wins for the KC Chiefs coming up here for this year. Chiefs under 10.5 at minus 140.”
“Oklahoma, John Mateer, 25 to one plus 2,500 to win the Heisman for a half a unit. So plays for today on a Tuesday. They're all futures in college and pro. Bengals over nine and a half wins. Chiefs under ten and a half wins. And John Mateer to win the Heisman for Oklahoma coming up here this year.”
“And I think if they can get Cutter Gauthier locked into a contract for this year, this team could easily threaten for the Western Conference. I'm surprised they're at plus 1600. I would have had them at 10 to one, maybe even nine to one. So give me the Anaheim Ducks to win the Western Conference.”
“I think best case scenario for them playoffs. I don't think they're going to win the division, but eight to one to enter the postseason as a wild card. That is how I'm betting the Raiders this year.”
“What are you looking at as the best way to represent the Middleton brand as we plant the flag on the AFC West I said it once I say it twice I looking to log the Raiders over five and a half in my app for action right now. I'm going to do that on DK as soon as we log off as well.”
“I, speaking of the Broncos, I like the Denver Broncos to win the division. First place schedule, yes, but they are the most complete team. They have a very real home field advantage and an infusion of offensive talent with Jalen Waddell. I am all in on the Denver Broncos.”
“And I, for one, am willing to bet on that. I bet on Cincinnati for their over as far as wins are concerned.”
“I bet on Cincinnati as far as winning the AFC.”
“And, yeah, I may have dabbled on betting Cincinnati to go and win the Super Bowl because markets matter and numbers matter.”
“They're over for wins. It's at nine and a half. I am on it. To make the playoffs, I am on it.”
“My guess, you're on the Chargers to win the AFC West. Is that accurate? Yep. I bet them they win double-digit games. didn't get involved in the division market.”
“Just catch my plus 200 to win the division. That's what I need.”
“And I am holding a lot of Dodgers no World Series that I'm hoping to cash before we get to the World Series this fall.”
“And the Chicago White Sox have been one of the best stories in baseball. I'm a coward because I didn't bet him to win a division. I bet him over wins.”
“Yeah, I am very down on the running back for the Bengals, Chase Brown, this year. So I'm going to go under 825.5 rushing yards. You kind of have to go one or the other.”
“I'm not high on the Bills this year. I'm not. I'll say that. I bet their season win total under. That was one of the other ones that I did bet.”
“I'm betting them over wins.”
“I'm even sprinkling a little back Prescott MVP bets at 14 to 1.”
“10-plus regular season wins. I'll lay the juice. You got to lay 155 on this. I think it's juice worth laying. Cincinnati's getting the 10 wins.”
“I'll tell you another team that's getting the 10 wins. The Los Angeles Chargers. Now, their win total is at 9.5. It's at minus 130. That team is built to win regular season games. That's what they do under Jim Harbaugh.”
“The last one I'm going to give you, we're doubling down on this. The New Orleans Saints are winning the NFC South. In Shook and in Kellen Moore, we trust.”
“Now, on the negative side of things, this is still a plus money bet. Patriots to miss the playoffs. Shaky line, Super Bowl hangover, plus 172. Sign me up right now for the Patriots at plus 172 to go and miss the postseason.”
“You want an under? I'll give you an under. Jacksonville Jaguars. First place schedule. Questions still to me about Lawrence. Division going to be improved. Texans are good. Colts get Jones back. Titans are going to be spunkier. And the books are giving you eight and a half as a total for the Jacksonville Jaguars. That, my friends, should tell you something.”
“And then the last team I'd be looking to sell. Mention Joey Porter Jr. The Pittsburgh Steelers have had a winning record every single year for forever. Like mid-2000s, the last time you're talking about a Steeler team with a losing season. It will happen. Bengals and Ravens, very, very good. First place schedule, not ideal. Give me the Steelers. Under, sorry, Mike McCarthy. and sorry Aaron Rodgers not getting a nine.”
“My two bets I liked here. Exact finish. If you're going to like New England at the top, Buffalo second. I feel like New England, Buffalo, Jets, Miami is like a natural division. It's still plus 330 to 350 at places. I think that's worth a nibble. And we took this on the favorites pod. I still like this as well.”
“I project a little over six wins, so plus money over five and a half. I think I'm in. And even though they probably want to lose, they're still pros. They're still trying. I think I'm in on the Jets over.”
“My bet is going to be, this is to me just a more creative way to play Miami and I like Arizona a little bit, so I do like Arizona to have more wins than Miami. If you a fan of Miami living in Florida I believe they going to be bad like I do and Stuck does. You can tail this back because DraftKings Sports is now available in all 50 states including the great state of Florida.”
“I did take a flyer on them to win the Super Bowl. It's my only Super Bowl future at 20 to 1.”
“If the Texans can get to like a slightly above average offense and their defense stays healthy then I think they have the potential to make some noise in a wide AFC So I took a flyer on them to win the Super Bowl with some upside.”
“Yeah, I have some division, personally. They ended up with the seventh-highest run rate on first down last year. and as a result of that they were in second and long more than every team in the nfl so it's like a weird situation where like did did they run it they want to run it more this year they want to run it more efficiently but their pass offense was still league average last year their run offense certainly wasn't um i took them to win this division”
“Tennessee under six and a half wins I continue to not believe in this organization I don't think they're a well-run group like you said earlier like we said earlier they went out and brought in a lot of retread players from previous stops that Dayball and Salah have familiarity with but I'm not sure that's a positive thing given the track record of those teams. I think Cam Ward has a long way to go and would need to take a significant, significant double leap forward to get this team to seven or eight wins in a competitive AFC South. And I just don't think this roster is really close to competing right now as they continue to rebuild. So even though I like a lot of the young receivers, I am out on Tennessee under six and a half in a tough division.”
“So I know it 11 and a half juice to the under I think I got to make this team prove they can win 12 games with all the questions and all of the change The first bet I placed this season was the Ravens under 11”
“I have the Bengals projected for, if you round up, to 10.6. So I have them projected for more wins. Basically the same. But I'm getting plus 180. On the division? Yeah. And I know that the Steelers could, their win total is 8.5. But I like this Bengals team.”
“They're my pick to win this division at plus 550.”
“I bet them to win the division. They're my pick to win this division at plus 550. and I'm going over.”
“Alabama. I'm taking the Crimson Tide and we're going to go over eight and a half wins for Alabama at minus 120 for 1.2 units.”
“So I'm playing the Patriots over nine and a half wins. You may need to go to an alternative number, shop around to books to have it. Circa has it. Bet Chris has it. There's a variety of other books that have alternative win totals. Patriots over nine and a half wins at minus 150 for 1.5 units to win back one.”
“I'm going Bills under 11 and a half wins at minus 154. Again, you're going to want to go and search for an alternative total there of 11 and a half and go under for the Buffalo Bills at minus 154.”
“I think we go ahead and take over eight and a half wins at plus 120 for UNLV. I think the Rebels are going to have a big season.”
“You know me, I love to talk first coach fired type of markets here. Are we looking at Robert Sala right now for the Titans? Yeah, we got a lot of Robert Sala first coach fire tickets over there.”
“but the Jets are five and a half. I'm taking the under.”
“But I think Trevor Lawrence to go over his passing yards. And again, And you can shop around. This is just the number that I played. But Trevor Lawrence, over 3,774 and a half passing yards. I think he throws for 4,000 yards.”
“the CJ Stroud business. And so I think they're going to be protective of him. I'm going to bet the under, under 3,549 and a half passing yards for CJ Stroud. I think you go ahead and find some numbers, you know, find a 3,600 somewhere in there and go under. But after 3,045 yards last year, That number, I think, is way too high for C.J. Stroud.”
“[24:57] could be a sexy name to throw a bet on so um yeah win total I'll take their over um it's it's moved [25:04] around a little bit it's now a plus number to the over nine and a half which is interesting to me [25:08] it's minus 135 to the under. [25:12] I'll take that plus number on them, right?”
“[31:07] If I've made any bets, I've seen nothing in division. [31:10] I bet they're under. [31:11] I don't really bet that many unders. [31:13] This is when I went right to the window. [31:15] because it was at a plus number. Now it's moving more towards a minus 110, minus 120 toward the [31:20] under. So I would be patient because professional bettors can keep coming in. Maybe I'll get back [31:25] to that plus number. But as we sit here right now, I just, I don't, I don't know. I can't see [31:32] their, uh, their odds moving up too much, right? I can never see them getting to eight wins. I can [31:36] never see them getting to six and a half. So it feels like the books are going to hold them right [31:40] here at seven and a half win total seven and a half is the win total uh it's so interesting”
“[42:58] This has been the – oh, wait. [42:59] Let's draft. [43:00] Let's draft for a second. [43:01] If we're drafting, I guess it's the Cowboys at plus 210 to win the division? [43:12] Yeah, I would do that division odds.”
“[22:36] Before we move on, Kendra, best way to bet the Philadelphia Eagles. [22:42] What would you what would you say? [22:44] They're under. I just think their schedule is too tough and the division is catching up quick. [22:48] Under 10 and a half. Very much juiced. Minus 140 if you want to take the under on that. [22:53] But it's going to be really tough for them to surpass that.”
“[22:55] I'll take Lane Johnson's word, Saquon Barkley over 1099 and a half in terms of his rushing yards. [23:02] He hit the over on that last year and he wasn't even all that good.”
“[47:08] I really like Sonny Stiles, Kendra. [47:10] I think the best way to bet this team is defensive rookie of the year, [47:14] 8-1, Sonny Stiles. [47:15] That would be my bet on the commanders.”
“[52:03] that regard. I'm all in. [52:05] Connor's all in. I think the best way to bet [52:07] them is to win the division [52:08] plus 215. You can [52:11] find that Kendra.”
“[54:29] That was what mine was going to be because I had given out the Giants over so many times. [54:33] So I'm with you on that. [54:34] but I've already logged the Giants over seven and a half into the app. [54:37] It's currently minus 110.”
“[3:00] So I'm going to jump on this now. [3:01] I think even by week zero or week one, you could see that season win total go up to eight, eight and a half. [3:07] Jump on it now. [3:08] Give me the Oklahoma Sooners over seven and a half wins, minus 150.”
“[48:47] I think Jones has proven himself to be a competent starter, [48:50] but I don't think he's a massive ceiling raiser. [48:52] So, you know, like, the win totals are 7.5 out there. [48:55] Like, I did take some over, and I think that's a little bit low.”
“[51:37] Is there a bet for the people in the audience that are disposed towards a wager here and there in the Premier League that you like outside of Arsenal to win? [51:47] Which I agree with, by the way. [51:49] Yeah, I'm looking at Chelsea and there's a top four market out there where they're like minus 120. [51:55] I love Xabi Alonso more than probably most people do as well. [51:59] I think the one game a week thing is an underrated feature coming off of a World Cup year, [52:05] especially where Man United and Liverpool are going to be in European competitions, [52:10] probably going deep in them. [52:12] Chelsea have no Europe. [52:14] And for the first time in a while, that presents them opportunities to have fresher legs, [52:18] to have fewer injuries, because as much as Chelsea has bought a ton of players, [52:22] A lot of the really important ones, like Cole Palmer, [52:24] have barely been healthy for the last few years. [52:27] And so I think Chelsea, again, a lot of new players coming in again. [52:31] Morgan Rodgers I'm probably lower on than most people. [52:34] But Palmer and Rodgers together is a pretty fun combination of skills [52:37] in your midfield. [52:39] I think Chelsea, for me, it's kind of like a toss-up between 3, 4, and 5 [52:45] with Liverpool, United, and Chelsea. [52:48] I would go with Chelsea over the other two.”
“[4:34] schedule once they get back from probably lapping Bill Belichick a few times [4:39] overseas in the first game. [4:41] They come back. [4:42] They only leave the state of Texas twice. [4:44] And I took them 20-1 to win the Big 12. [4:47] I think they're going to match up with Texas Tech there. [4:50] But that number is way too large for the talent that TCU has.”
“[9:13] And, you know, Baylor is just a walking corpse. [9:16] Now, the other one that is not going to get a lot of love is Iowa. [9:18] Iowa is in deep trouble. [9:20] Under 7.5, one of our favorite vets. [9:23] It's already on our board over at BBOC.”
“[18:03] So I don't like that move, especially when you're jumping down from the coordinator that I do love, [18:08] which is Danton Lynn, who moved to Penn State with Matt Campbell. [18:12] Penn State is a playoff team. [18:13] I've bet them plus 360 to make the playoff, and I think it's best described by this. [18:19] Like the roster, like the moves with the coaching staff, love the schedule.”
“[43:57] So I have to make a bet for this division, which I do. [43:59] I am betting Minnesota. [44:01] I'm betting them divisional odds. [44:02] But like I said, there's going to be a point I'm hoping in December where I can take a position on either the Bears or the Lions just because I am worried just to see what Kyler does towards the end. [44:13] Right. [44:13] I've never seen him win a division coming from such a tough division he came from. [44:17] So it's all there. [44:19] You know, the best they say, [44:21] Kyle is the best athlete ever to play football. [44:23] Chad, we'll, [44:24] we'll find out pretty quick if you can keep that alive. [44:26] Cause it's all on him. [44:28] Like there's going to be no excuses here. [44:30] They, they literally given him a month here, right? [44:32] They announced it early him as their starter to learn this offense. [44:36] So we're not going to be blaming KOC. [44:38] I tell you that much, [44:39] we're going to end up billing the Kyler if they don't succeed this year. [44:42] Yeah. [44:42] But we're also entirely investing in our belief in KOC because we've seen him do it with multiple quarterbacks now. [44:54] We've seen him do it with Kirk Cousins. [44:55] We've seen him do it with Sam Darnold. [44:56] We saw other guys go from that scenario to being successful like Daniel Jones. [45:02] So we're really investing that Kevin O'Connell is a bit of a quarterback whisperer here and can turn Kyler Murray into what these other guys became when they moved down from the Vikings or were with the Vikings. [45:17] Five to one, if we were drafting, I've enjoyed when we're drafting, we've got the Vikings at five to one to win the division, 22 to one to win the conference. [45:31] if there's a lot of you're a sick dog you're betting that job i don't hate it i love the idea”
“[36:13] That's why I don't get why the odds for Super Bowl are so low for Seattle. [36:18] I'd argue I think they're necking. [36:20] I mean, Miles Garrett could be a difference maker, [36:23] but I still think either Seattle wins it or is the second best team in the league. [36:28] I think that's a very fair argument. [36:30] Wait, wins what? The Super Bowl again? [36:32] Absolutely. [36:32] Oh, stop it. Come on. [36:34] Lost their offensive coordinator? [36:37] Quarterback led the league in turnovers last year in the regular season? [36:40] Huh? [36:41] Wins the Super Bowl again? [36:43] Yeah. [36:43] I mean, we can make it a jet ski or two if you want. [36:46] I know you're a gambling man. [36:47] I feel very strongly about it.”
“[36:30] Wait, wins what? The Super Bowl again? [36:32] Absolutely. [36:32] Oh, stop it. Come on. [36:34] Lost their offensive coordinator? [36:37] Quarterback led the league in turnovers last year in the regular season? [36:40] Huh? [36:41] Wins the Super Bowl again? [36:43] Yeah. [36:43] I mean, we can make it a jet ski or two if you want. [36:46] I know you're a gambling man. [36:47] I feel very strongly about it. [36:48] Okay. [36:49] That's a deal. [36:50] We shook on it.”
“[40:33] I'll say it [40:34] I'm wrong all the time [40:36] I'm fine with being wrong [40:37] I don't think I'm going to be here [40:39] I think they're going to have a bad season [40:41] I think they're clearly the fourth best team in their remodel [40:44] And I like the under on the win total, under 6.5 minus 115 at our show sponsor, BetMGM.”
“[12:08] And I'll keep saying it. [12:10] Dallas to make the playoffs, and BetMGM, our show sponsor, even money, plus 100. [12:16] I like that bet for Dallas to make the playoffs.”
“[29:43] There's a chaos scenario out there. [29:44] It could happen. [29:45] To Will's point, I think one of the best bets on the board this season, [29:48] UCLA over five-and-a-half wins. [29:50] I think a lot of people are sleeping on the Bruins and the job that Chesney is going to be able to do in year one in town.”
“[12:08] win a ring he i love that he went on this did this with me first yeah um 11 and a half win total [12:14] chad and minus 150 to the under so it's a pricey but positive number and it's a bet on lamar so [12:22] you're literally getting a plus number right now because they'll hit 12 wins if lamar stays healthy [12:25] derrick henry stays healthy zay flowers is out there got this wide receiver this kid named lane [12:31] i don't know if you've heard about him this this young kid for them like looks like they really [12:35] nailed it in the draft. [12:38] If they can come in there with [12:39] Mitter defensively, changing this defense, [12:41] which I think he will. I think he's a great defensive [12:43] mind. Candidate for coach of the year. [12:46] Yeah, it feels like an easy bet [12:47] right now to take a plus number at the over. [12:49] I bet their win total over.”
“[18:28] But I've got Houston listed here as a team to discuss. [18:32] Love the win total over. [18:33] I understand that a lot of guys in the betting community are interested in them. [18:38] I think it the classic case of but anyone you talk to outside of betting is very worried about CJ Stroud And I think that what creates the opportunity for us This is a guy when we saw him last in the playoffs he absolutely stunk [18:51] So a lot of people think he's going to continue to stink. [18:54] He doesn't need to be great in order for us to hit 10 wins on the win total. [18:58] He doesn't need to be great in order to win that division. [19:01] If we want to make a deep run, we're going to need some competent play from him, sure. [19:05] But if he rekindles anything, given the defense he's got around him and the young receivers coming into their own, I really like the potential for this team. [19:13] This defense is absolutely filthy. [19:16] Schedule sets up pretty nice. [19:18] I'm with you on the Texans. [19:19] I am buying them. [19:20] I like the win total over nine and a half.”
“[19:38] I'll do a quick double dip. [19:40] I am pro chargers as I am pretty much every year. [19:43] And I'm anti-Patriots. [19:46] I know everyone very much likes the Patriots. [19:48] They were the number one team last year in terms of health. [19:52] A lot of people are going to focus on the schedule, [19:54] getting a little bit more challenging. [19:56] Pro fans are going to look at them and say, well, they got AJ Brown. [19:59] They're going to be a lot better. [20:00] I look at the team. [20:01] I see that how well things set up last year. [20:04] and I see how they were the healthiest team in the NFL. [20:07] That is extremely difficult to sustain year over year. [20:10] Record in one score games was outstanding. [20:12] That's difficult to sustain. [20:14] I think they come back down to earth. [20:16] Win total is 10 and a half. [20:17] That's an under I've played.”
“[1:29] First hour of the show devoted to the National Football League. [1:33] The Minnesota Vikings officially named Kyler Murray their starting quarterback, [1:37] and I officially am picking and betting Minnesota to make the playoffs this season.”
“[14:38] they were in third place it's an easier schedule how do you not throw a bet on this Chiefs team [14:45] it's just a minus 10 and a half minus 150 to the owner okay I'm getting a positive number that I'm [14:52] getting a plus number taking the over I'm gonna bet Mahomes get 11 wins so you know the books yes [14:58] we could be walking right into it. [15:00] I have them projected 11 and a half points. [15:02] I have them a full game over this win total. [15:05] They're going to, [15:06] people are going to figure out pretty quick. [15:06] There's two teams that really like this division. [15:09] The chiefs are one of them. [15:09] It's just, [15:10] you're betting on my homes. [15:11] You're betting on Kenneth Walker, [15:12] this run game, [15:13] really changing things. [15:14] And, [15:14] you know, [15:15] again, [15:16] me and Chad are the biggest fantasy guys. [15:17] Cyrus Allen, [15:19] he's going to be a name. [15:20] The general public is going to learn. [15:21] This is a wide receiver that just looks the part right now for this team. [15:24] So where are these missing time? [15:26] Rice may missing time for injury. [15:27] they might have found a stud in this past draft and that's that's what Mahomes is going to do [15:32] right he's going to find a guy if this guy could stay healthy he's going to become Mahomes's guy [15:36] he just cannot keep going through Travis Kelsey who's what you're 30 36 years old now so I just [15:42] look at this team as people are kind of like this might be an in-between year I feel like last year [15:47] was that I feel like last year was the year from hell the year before they were 15-1 on one score [15:51] games last year they were one in 10 chat and one score games and he got it so yeah like i think [15:58] we're in unison here where it's like it's the mahomes factor he he's not calculable to most [16:02] people's models it's going to skew things where well if he gets 12 or 13 wins no i would not be [16:08] shocked but it's like my model can't predict those one score type of games what we're looking at is [16:13] just a law of averages here so to me this just feels like a team that you know at worst case [16:19] my homes goes eight and five and one score games you just we just don't see him having an insanely [16:24] horrible losing record last year was a year from hell me and chad i feel like we're in the same [16:29] unison as we usually fade those type of seasons the next year you have a good quarterback with a [16:34] good scheme a good head coach and a good organization you always bounce always been on the bounce back [16:39] so yeah i i don't know if i'm gonna go heavy on their division odds like i have in the previous [16:43] years dad but uh definitely taking that over right now at a plus number plus 170 to win the division [16:49] plus 650 to win the conference 13 to one to win the super bowl you know it's been years since the”
“[35:20] I really feel like they should be tied with the Chiefs at the top of this division. [35:24] I get what pros are saying here, that they're like, oh, we're built in the regression. [35:27] no doubt we're all doing the same thing but at nine and a half wins at minus 120 chad i mean come [35:34] on i think we gotta bet they're over win total um it's just if bonex is healthy if this team plays [35:42] the way we think they should play it's not a guarantee of 10 wins but pretty damn close to it [35:47] like sean payton is one of the best coaches in this league and you give them this much talent [35:52] on this deep of a team if they can just stay healthy there's no doubt they'll be in the [35:57] playoffs and even maybe potentially win this division so um yeah I felt like again every [36:02] division has an easy bet this one felt like the easy bet to me just take their over win total [36:06] you don't have to bet any other ones you can stay away from homes with injuries if you want”
“[15:21] I love the Cowboys. [15:22] And I love the Cowboys this season, Nick. [15:25] I'm betting them to win the division.”
“[15:25] I'm betting them to win the division. [15:27] I'm betting Dak to be the MVP.”
“[4:28] They might have to just walk away from this absolute disaster here. [4:32] Yep, I'm going to say North Carolina goes belly up and Bill Belichick's going to get let go. [4:40] Probably midseason here. [4:42] We going to go level two lock North Carolina under the four and a half win total Last year North Carolina finished four and eight So basically if you even saying they going to equal last year [4:54] it's a winner, you know, by saying they're going under four and a half.”
“[12:52] I like UNLV to go over eight and a half wins. [12:55] It is plus 120. [12:56] You get some plus money on that. [12:58] But UNLV over eight and a half wins at plus 120 for one unit.”
“[15:06] I think they're going to be in the conversation late and all they got to be is in the conversation [15:10] for the playoffs. And we're going over eight and a half wins for SMU. I like SMU over eight and a [15:17] wins It gets minus 120 It a little juicy but I like them to have a big year here SMU nine or more wins at minus 120 for 1 units The Daily Juice podcast is being brought to you by our friends at Hard Rock Bet”
“[22:41] Is this not the easiest bet in this division, taking their over win total? [22:44] Nine and a half? [22:45] in what world do they does this do they not get the 10 wins if shanahan is alive [22:49] if purdy survives the whole season this is a 10 win team we've seen it time and time again even [22:54] when they have all the 12 win team when when when they had nobody yeah like last year mac jones i [23:00] said this i said this on the other shows sorry to interrupt you but like mac jones was one of the [23:06] only quarterbacks in the nfl quality with qualified number of passes who was top 10 in drop back per [23:12] EPA and an EPA per drop back and a success rate. [23:18] The other guy, Brock Purdy. [23:20] Like, that's how good Kyle Shanahan is at this when he's got no receivers. [23:25] Christian McCaffrey having a subpar year, even though he was comeback player of the year. [23:31] No defense. [23:33] And these guys continue to pull magic out of their freaking hats. [23:38] It's ridiculous. [23:39] us as a McCaffrey owner from last year Chad he was like a juggernaut I think he was number three [23:44] best fantasy player in all of all fantasy football so subpar of year to you juggernaut year to me I [23:49] don't know a little bit but I I took a ton of heat last year when I said that the Shanahan I [23:57] know in the back of mind is like if I could trade Purdue right now for two first round picks [24:01] and just have Mac Jones be my starter I pay him on a discount that's a better future for the 49ers [24:07] but you know Purdy is their guy I get it but it's just my mentality right away when we saw [24:12] Mac Jones play was I think you just said it there Chad there wasn't that big of a drop-off like he [24:17] stepped right into that offense and the fact that he came back right they could have traded him they [24:21] had offers I think um I forget and that wasn't Shepard someone said they had like an offer for [24:26] a third or a fourth and they wanted a first or a second or something like that for Mac like [24:30] they basically viewed him as such a good piece to their offense and so cheap they didn't want to [24:34] move him unless the price is right so i know it's after this year he's a free agent so obviously [24:39] they weren't able to resign him but to me that's a big deal that's not talked about enough the fact [24:43] that mac did come back right where purdy has had bad injury luck yeah you have a guy that can step [24:49] in in this division and still win you games that's a huge deal i mean mac jones we all remember [24:54] beating though that rams team was a thursday night football that was incredible like he was [24:58] tearing them up that rams defense so we know the talent [25:02] Was there going to be a drop-off from Salah leaving? [25:04] Of course, right? [25:04] We talked about it last year. [25:05] Their defense was incredibly young. [25:07] They had a couple games where they just could not get anything going defensively. [25:11] Offense at the end of the season kind of failed them, right? [25:13] They had injuries, like Chad was talking about, the offensive line. [25:16] It just kind of petered out at the end of the season. [25:19] It's kind of the same thing here where they have the third-place schedule in their division, right? [25:23] They have an easier schedule, obviously, than the Rams in Seattle. [25:26] You expect them to be healthier than they were last season, just talking about injury luck. [25:29] And, you know, I keep looking at this team. [25:32] I know that Ayuk is a big deal losing him offensively, [25:34] but you would think Mike Evans stepping in, [25:37] that's such a huge upgrade. [25:38] Like they went from having a zero at the position [25:40] because Ayuk wouldn't play to now, you know, [25:42] Ricky's not your number one. [25:43] The fact you could have Mike Evans be your number one now, [25:45] it only might be for six, seven games [25:47] because he also keeps having hamstring injuries [25:49] and other things like that. [25:51] He's such a professional. [25:52] You have to think how much he's going to help the guys in practice, [25:54] everything like that. [25:54] That's such a big deal to me. [25:56] Don't forget, don't forget they also added Christian Kirk. [25:59] And that's what's interesting to me is they recognize they've got huge wide receiver holes to fill because Ricky Pearsall, he couldn't get on the field last year either. [26:11] And he was had a hard time being on the field his, you know, I think his rookie year as well. [26:17] So they need help at the receiver position. [26:21] It is entirely about the defense. [26:24] Like, what are they going to do with the collection of players that they have? [26:28] We talk about Steve Spagnuolo and what he's been able to do with the Chiefs and how he's performed wonders with a defense that last year did not have its full arsenal. [26:41] Same with the Niners. [26:43] They've gone all in on drafting to improve their defense, and this is going to be the year where they kind of have to prove it. [26:49] And I actually had them closer to plus 200 for this division. [26:52] So the fact that they're plus 300, I have a couple of small bets I've done with them, with the Saints, who are plus 250. [26:59] Put them parlay together, you get crazy good numbers. [27:02] There is a world where this team, just like last year, it comes in the final two, three weeks, you can hedge out of it. [27:08] And that's what's so fun about this division. [27:10] It's like, Seattle, yes, they're a juggernaut. [27:13] The Rams are a juggernaut. [27:14] We know the deal, Chad. [27:15] Once the season starts, you're going to throw all that preseason hype out. [27:18] Once the games start, things get tight. [27:20] These teams get tight. [27:20] They're all an injury away from their whole season's collapsing. [27:23] So it's not that far off they want to take a position on the 49ers team. [27:27] They're not as far behind the Rams or Seattle as the public perceives them to be right now. [27:31] So obviously Shanahan spent all offseason watching that embarrassment game against Seattle. [27:38] Remember Seattle shut them out two weeks ago. [27:40] Not two weeks in a row, but two games in a row, right? [27:42] They shut them out. [27:44] 49ers went to Philadelphia, beat the Eagles in the playoffs, then went to Seattle and got shut out again. [27:48] And I remember Shannon just talking about how he went into a dark hole and watch that tape over and over again. [27:53] Just see how basically I'm masterminded by McDaniels. [27:57] So McDonald's. [27:58] So I look at this team where, you know, it's all there in front of them. [28:03] They have the talent. [28:03] It's all about the health at that number plus 300 for this division. [28:07] Chad, I have to put a little bit off. [28:09] You want to know my bigger bet, though? [28:10] It is on their win total. [28:11] I just I cannot see them not getting a 10 or 11 wins.”
“[33:24] drake may we thought i thought he was going to be really good i bet the patriots to make the [33:28] playoffs but it was a projection we don't always have the answer after one year we can think we”
“[3:40] It's very, very easy here. [3:43] And I think it's going to be a three-team race here in the AFC. [3:47] I think it's going to be Buffalo, the Chargers, and Cincinnati. [3:51] Three new teams here. [3:53] And I think Cincinnati over 10 and a half. [3:58] Not just good. [3:59] I think it's great here. [4:00] We're going to go with a blood-bound special.”
“[3:52] Last year, it went 12 games. [3:55] With C.J. Stroud out three games and falling behind 0-3. [4:00] Are you kidding me? [4:01] Nine and a half wins? [4:03] I'm going way over. [4:05] Let's go all the way up. [4:06] Level three lot.”
“[44:58] I am tempted here, plus 800, to win the division. [45:01] I'm not going to lie. [45:02] I did place a little bet.”
“[50:38] That's why I threw a little on the plus 800. [50:40] I bet Houston at plus 120 didn't touch the Jaguars, [50:44] didn't touch the Colts. [50:44] I put a little bet on this Tennessee team.”
“[1:01:00] Their win total is set at 50.5.”
“[1:01:03] I think this will be a 54 team 55 wins is plus 225 So if I think they going to win 54 if I getting plus 225 I guess that a bet for me [1:01:24] If I'm setting it at 54 and you get 2.25 to 1 at 55, yeah, I like that.”
“[1:02:32] LeBron to average [1:02:33] 18 points per game minus 150. [1:02:37] Yeah, I would take that bet.”
“[11:31] I just think the schedule is far too brutal. [11:34] Take the plus money. [11:35] I'm taking Texas to miss the postseason at plus 150. [11:39] and you can show me all these predictions at the end of the year when Texas runs the table and [11:44] they're undefeated and I'm wrong, so be it. But oftentimes gambling is about taking the value [11:49] that presents itself. And I think fading Texas presents that value, Texas to miss the postseason [11:55] at plus 150 for one unit.”
“[16:30] is really, really hard, but that could help them if they get a couple of close losses and they get [16:35] a couple of big wins when it comes to the committee that could help them. It's worth the [16:39] shot on the value. Let's go ahead and jump in here with, oops, sorry. That's the bet. That's [16:45] there is USC to make the playoffs at plus one 60.”
“[5:24] This is a really strong team here and nine and a half wins. I got the win total at 11. So don't be [5:32] afraid of the schedule here. Some people will say, oh, every year you bet the over and they don't [5:37] come through. This is the year the LA superchargers come through over nine and a half wins, minus 140.”
“[4:44] In the AFC West, this is risky because of the net differential in scheduling and rest days. [4:51] I'm going Chargers. [4:53] Justin Herbert and Mike McDaniel, I think, like the world on fire. [4:56] I will have a Justin Herbert MVP ticket just for fun. [5:00] I like the Chargers a lot.”
“[11:18] just a freak at QB and Herbert. I think this Chargers team is going to be awesome. I bet them [11:23] to win the Super Bowl quite heavily. [11:25] And I might be down in Hermosa Beach if they win, [11:28] living pretty comfortably comes February.”
“[16:12] I don't know why there's not more positivity about the Packers. [16:14] Their win totals come down a full win. [16:17] There's so many people have been betting the under. [16:18] I don't agree with that. [16:19] I'm with you. [16:20] I think the Packers have some upside. [16:22] And so I bet over nine and a half wins.”
“[22:19] So when you say regression, what does that mean? [22:22] Like, hey, they're not going to get back to the Super Bowl or they're not winning the division or I don't know that they're a wildcard team. [22:28] Well, they're not getting back to the Super Bowl. [22:29] I don't think they win the division. [22:31] I think they go under 10 and a half wins. [22:34] Wildcard team certainly in play. [22:35] That's how I would look at it. [22:36] But the bet would be under 10 and a half wins.”
“[29:58] Yeah, this is my biggest bet by far in this division is on the plus 270, plus 260, [30:04] whatever you can find on this team to win this division.”
“[36:41] when tyler shuck was playing from behind in a lot of these games uh so i'd love i'd love it for him [36:47] you know i love an underdog story uh all right so we'll invest in the new orleans saints at [36:53] plus 260”
“I'll give you the one that not only would I back, I actually have backed with my own USD here. The only national championship bat I have put in preseason is on the Oregon Ducks.”
“For me, I took some Michigan State over four and a half. There's some decent good plus money out there on over four and a half.”
“If I'm making a bet, I'm going with that price-wise as opposed to going to the top of the board. Because I think that defense is real deal. And John McKeer, hopefully he was, you know, I think he was banged up for a lot of last year and his performance declined. You can get the offense going a little bit, and I think that defense is as good as it gets right now. So Oklahoma around 10-1 for me to win the SEC, I've sprinkled a bit.”
“I just think Texas Tech is far and away the best team in the Big 12. And I'd play, anything with a plus sign on them to win the Big 12 has been a bet for me.”
“[3:37] All right, let's go to some over-under picks [3:39] for the upcoming NFL season. [3:41] We're going to start with a guy who lives near me. [3:44] You know, I see him. [3:44] Not quite a neighbor, but he's in the neighborhood. [3:47] Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions over 10.5 wins.”
“[4:41] And the first under is the New England Patriots under 10 and a half wins. Okay. We know they had [4:49] one of the best schedules last year in this century in the NFL.”
“[6:24] The real question is Sean Mannion's play calling. [6:27] And the more you start to read about what he wants to do, [6:29] it's starting to sound like not going to be a tush push kind of year for the Eagles. [6:34] That being said, I still like them over 10 and a half wins. [6:38] I have them winning the NFC East.”
“[7:31] And again, the Davis Webb, Sean Payton stuff that we just talked to James Palmer about [7:35] is very interesting. [7:37] That is probably the most interesting head coach, offensive coordinator subplot to watch. [7:42] So I'm going under 9.5 wins on the Denver Broncos.”
“[8:30] And I do believe we're just going to see him hopefully only play one side of the ball [8:34] where he can specialize. [8:36] I like Trevor Lawrence. [8:37] Over eight and a half wins for Jacksonville for me.”
“[8:37] Over eight and a half wins for Jacksonville for me. [8:39] And finally, we're going to the New Orleans Saints, and I'm going to go under seven and a half. This is mostly a fade the public. Why? Everybody likes New Orleans. Everybody likes Tyler Shuck. Now, if you look at some of the data, what we're hearing for the last two decades is there is zero correlation between late season surge and the next season, which kind of hurts Jacksonville, but I digress.”
“Give me Alabama 25 to 1 to win the national championship. We'll be able to hedge off of it, but that's a ridiculous number for the Crimson Tide at 25 to 1 to win the national championship.”
“And at 35 to one, DraftKings has this number at 35 to one by most people's that's five to $8 higher than most people. I don't know what the liability, where that has structured with the risk team for Oklahoma, but they want Oklahoma money. And I'm going to give it to them at DraftKings for 35 to one on Oklahoma to win the national championship.”
“Jordan, the number for Alabama is low. Eight and a half wins for Alabama. Jordan, you going over or under? Boy, I'm going under.”
“Louis Riddick is with us from here, and Jordan Rodgers is with us from there, looking at teams' win totals this season, according to DraftKings. Jordan, the number for Alabama is low. Eight and a half wins for Alabama. Jordan, you going over or under? Boy, I'm going under. I think this number is right on the money, but I look at the quarterback questions that they have. Two guys in competition. The questions all around the quarterback. Lost some of their best receivers, their best tight end, their number one running back, four offensive linemen. I think they hit some bumps in the road, and I think they get right at that number eight. That would mean their worst season since Nick Saban's first season in Tuscaloosa. Lewis, 8.5 is the number for LSU as well with Lane Kiffin. You going over or under? Look, there's no other choice. It's got to be over. It's got to be over.”
“And then, Jordan, let's talk about Texas. Their number is nine and a half wins at DraftKings. Over or under? Hammer the over.”
“thanks so much later let's get to our plant the flag once again presented by draft kings but this time we're going to keep it inside of our top 10 what you got middleton plant the flag get it set up i'm trying to plant my flag here okay you're really planting your flag in that thing i think my favorite bet that i have placed this is now hopping over my cleveland browns bet Drake Maye over five and a half rushing touchdowns plus 180 is my favorite bet that i have logged all season long”
“That is going to be a buddy bet because I love that very much. Drake Maye over five rushing touchdowns, plus 180.”
“I like Drake Maye as well. 4,000 plus passing yards at plus 135.”
“Now, I know the Rams are the best team in the NFL. The Rams, the team I've already put my money on. I've actually put the money on Rams Chargers in the Super Bowl. I think that'd be really cool in the All-LA Super Bowl.”
“I have several. So I'm not sure what the numbers are at MGM, but I'll say what numbers I have these bets at. I really like Bo Nix, MVP at 35 to 1. I really think there's a path to that. The Broncos, they're in year three of him on a rookie deal. When these quarterbacks are good on a rookie deal, it really gives the team a bunch of ammo to build talent around them. And so I like that.”
“I like Jordan Love at 22-1 MVP.”
“I think my favorite bet right now is Seahawks to win the division. I've seen that as high as plus 245.”
“And then I saw the Bears as high as plus 360.”
“They won it last, and the Steelers at plus 550.”
“And I think Carolina, plus 300 to win the NFC South. My favorite bet for today.”
“please is how we view both of these guys all right let's get to our draft kings plant the flag segment of the day plant the flag get it set up i'm trying to plant my flag here okay you're really planted your flag in that thing our top 20 is just about wrapped but we will plant our flag on a season-long prop for one of the guys that we have already discussed on the episode today kendra get us started i have a jackson dart over five and a half rushing touchdowns played to give you guys even if kravitz is right and he doesn't survive the season because he doesn't know how to slide or to protect himself and his brain. I think that this could hit before that even happens to him because we know what we can do. We know what he's capable of. And I think at times because of the offense that they're going to run this year, he is going to be their best option within the 10 of the five because with all these old guys that are weirdly going to draw attention somehow that don't deserve to, I think that we could be looking at this. So I'm going to go with Jackson Dart over the five and a half rushing touchdowns.”
“I have Brock Purdy 20 to one to win MVP.”
“tails here that you can talk me into give me the final order of finish in the most difficult division in football the nfc north yeah man i mean all i know is i'm on the vikings at five to one instead at the bottom of the group.”
“Didn't help them last two years. So I'm going over eight and a half wins for this Texas A&M team. It's an absolute hidden gem.”
“But we are taking the under for the Arizona Cardinals under four and a half wins at minus 145. Bet as much as you want with that. We'll just officially go 1.45 units.”
“I'm going to take advantage of it here. I'm going to go with the Athletics under 71 and a half total wins on the season, minus 105. It's going to be my hidden gem.”
“I think the Phillies, JJ, are going to win the World Series. Listen, maybe this is the emotional heartstrings point. I just bet him at 17-1 literally 24 hours ago. I did because the number was really juicy”
“This is an easy one. Phillies to win the pennant.”
“There you go. I'm in. I'm in. Yeah. I'm so happy to make that choice.”
“but them and the Ravens they're not that much different and the fact that the Ravens are the number one favorite to be the number one seed and the Bengals are down here 11-1 my model has them literally neck and neck so just going based off values I have them both at plus 600 that means I'm getting a free plus 500 right now on this Bengals team so like again I'm not the biggest Bengals believer my model jumps out to that it's like I have to take notice and say okay I might be a little too hard on Joe Burrow and Zach Taylor, this is good. This is a good number. This is something I need to bet. So I did bet at 12 to one. I've been at 11 to one. I would keep taking it until it drops down to below 10 to one. I think it's a good value right now on this Bengals team.”
“All right. So our Simon says presented by hard rock bets, Eagles to beat the chiefs in the super bowl at a hundred to one. Our Chad's Choice, presented by Hard Rock Bet, New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs at plus 200.”
“their respected conferences so um right there jumped out if you want to do the flip side the chiefs to beat the eagles same thing at hard rock 100 101 we just talked about the bangles i like people know i like betting repeat super bowls and it happens it just i mean it sounds crazy but every year it happens patriots seahawks repeat super bowl matchup like these things that the nfl is so cyclical, it's so repeatable. Since I had Bengals to beat the Rams, 100-1. Again, I'm looking at 101 bets.”
“So my Chad's choice is going to be the New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs at plus 200.”
“nine games back on june 30th probably the most disappointing team in baseball so far this year it's the detroit tigers now the big caveat here and really the premise of this bet when i was looking through this weekend i'd like to go back to my futures our futures are on pace to do fantastic for our paramount sports clients this year but i like to go check in on where we're at about halfway through the season and see if there's anything I like to make a bet on. And then I'll do the same right after the all-star break, maybe the trade deadline and see if there's anything else. Well, checking in on the Tigers themselves and where their numbers dictate that they should be versus where they are This team does have value And if you want to get a little bit riskier with it a little higher reward you can actually look at them at betting them to win the american league and frankly i say that because i don't know if anybody wants to win the american league right now the new york yankees have been running away with it they're two and eight in their last 10 they've been shut out through five innings i believe in four of their last five games without aaron judge in the lineup they just haven't had the same pop john carlos stanton is hurt ryan mcmahon is hurt defensively they've got plenty of issues on their end. But let's look at the AL Central. I really don't know if anybody wants to win this one, this division at all, either. The White Sox, they've been a fun story, but they can't win away from home. They're 16 and 25 outside of the south side of Chicago. And they have major pitching problems. Their starting pitching group has really just been cobbled together of a bunch of five and dive guys, like we talked about with J.P. Sears. And their bullpen has been good, but not great. You look at the Guardians, who have been consistently mediocre, you know, 500 baseball team there without Jose Ramirez. My concern for the Guardians too, is that J-Ram just got his stitches out. So he's on his way back to, back to rehab starts and back to playing baseball. But two things, he hadn't been playing great baseball this year before he got hurt. And two, that's a broken hamate bone. And for anybody who's played baseball before or who follows baseball closely, a broken hamate bone is one of the toughest injuries to come back from and perform well in that season. You see it throughout baseball all the time. It's becoming a much more common injury. Francisco Lindor dealt with it, and when he came back, he was a 150 hitter for a month, month and a half. The handmaid bone is just a difficult injury to come back from. So I don't have a ton of faith in the Guardians to run away with this division. This is a team that's known for going 500 every year. If the Tigers can get back to 500, they've got the front office and the staff to really go for it. They know they're on the last year of Tarek Skubal. If they can get to 500, are they trading him at the deadline? I don't think they are. Now, the staff itself without Skubal, and now that Skubal's back, they're certainly bolstered. But without Skubal, it's actually been pretty good. Keiter Montero has been great. He has a sub 3-4 ERA. Troy Melton has been lights out. He has a sub 2-4 ERA. and even Frambois Valdez, despite all the drama he seems to bring and maybe the disappointment he's been this year, he has a .332 ERA over his last seven starts. And the vast majority of those runs came in a blow-up outing against the Astros over the weekend. So with Scoogle back on the mound, the starting pitching staff certainly can pitch better and has pitched better. The offense, yes, they've limped throughout most of the season. They've been disappointing. Spitzer, Turkelson, Riley Green at times. Plenty of guys have been disappointing. But if you just look at their lineup, they still got two-thirds of their starting lineup, their daily starting lineup. Six of those guys have a WRC plus over 100. That is the sign of a team that can hit or should be hitting more than they have. And I've got to pull up my expected stats versus my actual stats. They've got a 242 expected batting average versus a 236 average. at 3, excuse me, a 409 expected slugging over a 391 slugging percentage, and a 322x WOBA over a 312 WOBA. And WOBA is one of those advanced stats that takes into account quality of contact, hard hit, exit velocity, and so on and so forth, and tries to calculate what your batting average should be as well. So in other words, these underlying metrics for this Tigers offense are better than what they show on their face. Now, yes, the lineup's struggling, but they have a 30 and 27 record outside of that dismal month of May when they went six and 22. If you take that 30 and 27 record and extrapolate it to a full season, this is a playoff team. I don't see the Guardians going 30 and 27 or on a 30 and 27 pace the rest of the year. If the Guardians came back last year the way they did and the Tigers collapsed the way they did, are you really all that concerned about anybody else? In fact, if you took the Tigers right now and they went eight and two or nine and one over the next 10 games, this line is going to go from 13 to one to five to one in no time. I'm not worried about the twins. They have maybe the worst bullpen in baseball and they're still in the middle of a rebuild. So with really a whole bunch of paper Tigers surrounding the actual Detroit Tigers and the AL Central, I'm going to take a shot on them at 13 to one. Bet a little, went a whole lot.”
“numbers from draft kings first one let's head to the wide receiver room head-to-head prop between former teammates devonta smith and aj brown who is now with the patriots so who will have more receiving yards this year, Brown or his former teammate Smith. Mike T., we begin with you. A.J. Brown, that's why they got him. He is a big physical wide receiver, third down red zone. Look for him to be very productive to build on Drake May's 31 touchdown passes a year ago. I love DeVonta Smith and his skill set. One question we don't know about DeVonta Smith, who's about 40 pounds lighter than A.J. Brown, is can he go across the middle? So I think they got A.J. Brown. The head coach loves him. They're going to feature him. I think DeVonta Smith's still very good, but I'm going with Brown.”
“and I don't feel that way about the Patriots offense, and I think the way they're going to use A.J. Brown in terms of a downfield threat will lead to more yards. Jordan Rodgers, jump in here. Do you see it the same way as these two guys, or would you go the other way with Smith? No, I'm going the same way, and I think he breaks that sneaky record we just saw of Tyreek Hill and has over 1,700 yards, and here's why.”
“Jordan Rodgers, jump in here. Do you see it the same way as these two guys, or would you go the other way with Smith? No, I'm going the same way, and I think he breaks that sneaky record we just saw of Tyreek Hill and has over 1,700 yards, and here's why. Drake May loves to push the ball downfield. They led the NFL in air yards per attempt last year. He was a runner-up for the MVP, and he did it with Stephon Diggs, Kayshaun Booty, and Mack Hollins. Now he's got A.J. Brown, and on the other side, Romeo Dobbs, who they traded for for the Packers, who led them in receiving. So not all the attention is going to be on A.J., but he's going to get a heavy share of the shots downfield. I think he's going to make an immediate impact. I'm surprised at the pricing here. I would have made this closer to minus 160, so I agree with you guys. I would play Brown.”
“I think we going to get to that later but A Brown going to play a big part in that All right clean sweep across the board We all have A Brown over Devonta Smith Next one let go to the defensive side of the ball Myles Garrett after nine years in Cleveland he now with the Rams and the prop we have is will he break the single season sack record, which, by the way, he set last year at 23. So we need 23.5 sacks for the yes to cash on this prop. It is plus 800. Mike T., we begin with you. Does he break the sack record? 100%, and here's why.”
“and the prop we have is will he break the single season sack record, which, by the way, he set last year at 23. So we need 23.5 sacks for the yes to cash on this prop. It is plus 800. Mike T., we begin with you. Does he break the sack record? 100%, and here's why. You don't even want to give yourself 1% of wiggle room here? Here's why. Take copious notes here, Joe. Yeah. This is going to be a really good offense. When you're really good on offense the way the Rams are going to be, that's going to give Myles Garrett a lot more at-bats in the second half to sack the quarterback that he had in Cleveland a year ago. So if you just think about the way these games are going to be played, their opponents are going to be behind, something the Browns really weren't a year ago. So to me, just from a logic standpoint, this really sets up well for him with or without Aaron Donald, by the way, because I think if Aaron Donald's there, he's just going to see more remarkably one-on-one pass sets. So to me, I think this really sets up for a monster year for Myles Garrett. Jordan Rodgers, do you see it the same way as Mike T, where Myles Garrett has 65 sacks this year? No, I don't. It's just so hard. There's a reason that record of Michael Strahan stood for 24 years. You kind of have to have a little bit of luck. Last year, Myles Garrett had a three-game stretch where he had 10 sacks. five in one game, then one, then four. You kind of have to have some things break your way. I just don't think they do.”
“So finally, let's look at this year's MVP chase. Profit Draft Kings, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen against the field. So, Lamar and Josh Allen, you can take them as a package deal, plus 265 to win the MVP award. Graz, we'll start with you. Who has the better chance at the MVP this season, Lamar or Josh Allen? I would say Josh Allen. I believe his team will be better. But, yeah, I think it's – I would say Josh Allen. I mean, it's good that they're the co-favorites. Obviously, we know they can win it, and if all goes well, they'll be in contention. Whenever Lamar Jackson's had a fully healthy season, he's been at or near the top of the MVP balloting. There's so much uncertainty in both places, really, due to the coaching changes, but especially on offense in Baltimore. Would you like them, or would you like the field? I would take the field.”
“So, Lamar and Josh Allen, you can take them as a package deal, plus 265 to win the MVP award. Graz, we'll start with you. Who has the better chance at the MVP this season, Lamar or Josh Allen? I would say Josh Allen. I believe his team will be better. But, yeah, I think it's – I would say Josh Allen. I mean, it's good that they're the co-favorites. Obviously, we know they can win it, and if all goes well, they'll be in contention. Whenever Lamar Jackson's had a fully healthy season, he's been at or near the top of the MVP balloting. There's so much uncertainty in both places, really, due to the coaching changes, but especially on offense in Baltimore. Would you like them, or would you like the field? I would take the field. You'd go with the field. Jordan Rodgers, jump in here. You get Lamar and Josh Allen, or you get the field. Which way would you go? I'm taking the two guys that, when they're healthy, are really the most dynamic players in the NFL because they can throw it downfield.”
“where we dive into some numbers from DraftKings. For the first one, we'll call this the Mike McCarthy Bowl. After taking a year off, McCarthy has reemerged as the head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. So which team will have more regular season wins this year, the Steelers or his former team, the Dallas Cowboys, who are currently favored to have more? Jordan Rodgers, jump in. You've got first crack. Yeah, I'm going to go with the Steelers. Look, I think both have big ifs, right?”
“Let's take it. White Sox to win the pennant at 25 to one at hard rock bet one unit down on the White Sox to win the pennant So we have the Brewers at 12 to one to win it all and the White Sox at 25 to one to win the AL”
“Kendra's on Micah Parsons, 10 to one.”
“A recap for you for our DraftKings Comeback Player of the Year. Kendra's on Micah Parsons, 10 to one. Stucky on Kyler Murray with the Vikings at 6 to one. And I'm on Malik neighbors, 16 to one with the New York Giants. you can bet on all of those over on draft Kings,”
“There, I made the first Major League Baseball future wager of the year by taking the Milwaukee Brewers with a ticket at a kiosk at Hard Rock Bet. 12 to 1, one unit on the Brewers to win the World Series.”
“I'm going under 10-1⁄2 here. Wrong team favored.”
“I am going to go with Jeremiah Love over eight touchdowns on the season plus 250 i think even though he's a rookie he's gonna see a ton of probably a lot of goal line easy easy number for me there”
“I'm going to go with Ashton Gentry 40 to one to win offensive player of the year.”
“I like the over 9.5 for the Chargers.”
“I like the Chiefs under 10 and a half.”
“Browns over five and a half,”
“take the under 11 and a half on the Ravens how hard it is to win 12 games in this division they've got a new head coach the Ravens have a new offensive coordinator they have a new defensive coordinator and you and I all watched Lamar Jackson last year he regressed his rushing numbers went down to under 30 yards rushing a game. Again, this is the highest win total in the NFL. And I don't know, Aaron Rodgers, Burrow, a talented Cleveland team, they were eight and nine last year. And again, I think their schedule early is workable, but in the middle of it, I see a lot of Jags, Burrow, Bills, Chargers, Texans, Baker Mayfield. I think it's tough in the middle. I like the under on the Ravens.”
“it would be Giants over seven and a half.”
“I gonna go Packers under nine and a half I like them but I think the division really good Folks Jordan Love never won more than nine games in any of his last three years and the division never been better. Ben Johnson and Caleb year two, Kyler Murray upgraded quarterback for Minnesota, Detroit major upgrade at left tackle and offensive coordinator. So Micah Parsons is not going to be ready for the start of the season. The Packers were 0-4 when Micah didn't play. They also lost Rashawn Gary, and Jeff Halfley was an excellent defensive coordinator. And by the way, Jordan Love's been dinged up. Oh, funny, now they don't have a backup in Malik Willis. This is an easy one for me. I can like a team. 9-8 feels about where they land. I like the under. Don't hate the Packers. I just don't love them. Under on Green Bay.”
“Saints feel pretty confident about this, over seven and a half, all barring a major injury at quarterback.”
“Finally, the Jets under 5.5.”
“My first future we talked about the other day. Ravens under 11 and a half wins.”
“But if I gave you $100, Rams plus $500, I think you kind of answered that question already. Bills, this is all odds courtesy of our friends at BetMGM. Bills, 10-1. Ravens, 11. Seattle, 11. Kansas City, 15. The Chargers and Niners, 17. the Broncos and Lions and Packers and Patriots 18 along with the Eagles Texans 20 Bengals 22 Bears 25 Cowboys 25 Jaguars 30 Vikings Bucks 50 Colts 66 will draw the line there here's a hundred bucks who are you betting to win the Super Bowl at price I almost certainly in the month of June any year my eyes immediately drop to 30 to 1 and below Like I'm only trying to prey on upside at this time of the calendar. Like there's almost – even at like plus 550, like, oh, okay, win a 500 bucks, cool. In February, I can cash a 500 ticket. No, thanks. I'm much more inclined to look for a 30 to 50 to 1 kind of price point and try to catch a rising star, a shooting star, so to speak. So among those teams that you mentioned in that sort of 30 to 50 to 1 range, for me, the team that stands out in the NFC at price is the Vikings. I think that there's a lot to be said about the positive upside of Kyler Murray in a Kevin O'Connell system. I don't mind and honestly I just kind of want to make a bet on the Vikings to just try to you know kind of put my money in a what I know to be true which is that the Arizona Cardinals are a dysfunctional disaster of an organization and if you take a a very talented player out of a disaster of an organization and put him into a good one good things tend to happen look at Sam Darnold Look at countless examples of these very, very talented players put in good situations and then watch them thrive. I will happily prey on that. I think they have a high floor defense. Didn't mention them in that commentary about all of a sudden there are now eight very competent, very complete defenses in the NFL. The Vikings are absolutely one of them, in my opinion, particularly with the way they're coached. And I'm excited to see what Kyler Murray looks like in a Kevin O'Connell system with those weapons on offense. So I'm looking for a 50 to one price in June, almost in the blind every year.”
“They are three and a half point favorites at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And the Bucs are one of those teams last year that just, we couldn't get the right read on them. We were constantly feeling like, when are they going to become in the second half of the year We kept waiting for them to be the team they were in the first half of the year And they couldn quite get over the top Too many injuries things caught up with them I don know that I got enough faith to bet the Bengals who have just historically been one of those teams that let you down, as three and a half point home favorites in week one on the road against the Buccaneers. Simon says, give me the Bucs plus three and a half. I want to play a game Simon says I cannot believe this number is still up that's how much I've been betting it”
“I do find the value in backing between 265 goals and 279 goals total, which is about 5 to 1.”
“I'm taking the Chiefs. I'm going to take the over for the Chiefs at 10 and a half. I think they bounce back, and I think they get to either 11 or 12.”
“Let's go with the Buffalo Bills. You've got the Bills number. Are you taking the over or the under on Buffalo? Carrington, I'm going to take the over. You were talking about this earlier in the show about Josh Allen and how the clock is ticking. He's turning 30 years old. It's now or never kind of thing for Josh Allen. And I believe that. I think Brady is going to be a better coach for what the Bills need to be than what Sean McDermott was. I think DJ Moore, I don't think he's quite as good as he was about three or four years ago, but I think he's still a really good receiving option. I think that's going to help that offense tremendously and kind of give. Here's the one thing DJ Moore is when it's third and eight, you target DJ Moore. And that's where he's a big he was a big help with Kayla Williams. He made Justin Fields functional years back with the Bears, with that kind of thing. So I think Buffalo is in a position. I think they're the best. I understand they've got flaws on that roster, but I still think with Josh Allen, they are the best team in the AFC. I think you can see some of those other elite teams last year, like Houston and Jacksonville, potentially regress a little bit. I don't know who's coming out of the north. I know we're going to be, you know, talking Ravens or Bengals or whatever it might be there. I like where Buffalo is positioned. I think this team definitely goes over 10 and a half.”
“So right now we are going through all of the teams that have an over under of 10 and a half right now. The seven teams are Buffalo, Detroit, Green Bay, Kansas City, the Chargers, San Francisco, and Seattle. We are two teams in. Both teams have had the overtaken for them. Over 10.5 for Kansas City, over 10.5 for the Buffalo Bills. Moving down the line, Kenny, you are up next. I am going to give you the Detroit Lions. Are you taking the over or the under for the Lions? I'm glad you gave me the Lions because I'm a Bears fan so I know the NFC North very well and the Lions are the one team this season that I think are the biggest challengers to the Bears for the Bears to repeat in the division so I'm going to go Lions over”
“we're going through these teams here the 10 and a half challenge we got four teams left on this one you know what kenny i'll come back to you since you're an nfc north individual and i will give tyler a couple of different teams as we figure out his mike situation kenny i'll come back to you i'll give you green bay at 10 and a half you taking the over the under yeah i'm gonna go under on green bay”
“All right, Tyler, happy that you're back. Happy that we got the Mike situation figured out. we'll go to the nfc west for you san francisco ten and a half well they have a well they had a good season last year i don't want to call it a bounce back year they did make the playoffs over under for the san francisco 49ers the football guys didn't want me to talk i completely agree with kenny by the way and the packers i had him under i completely agree with him so he stole my shot there i like the under and the 49ers as well i feel like this is just an aging core our guy nick costos thinks they're like one of the sleeper teams in the nfl i don't necessarily agree The core is aging. They seem to be getting worse. I don't know if they're going to get another year that they got out of McCaffrey last year. I feel like that was his last really good season. The defense is hurt all the time. They have about a middling schedule, so it's not the hardest test, especially in that division. So I think they're going to win 10 games, 9-10 games I think they're going to win. So I'll take the under 10.5 for them.”
“All right, Bill, we got one more team left. I will leave it to you. We have the Los Angeles Chargers, 10-1⁄2. Are you taking the over or the under in what should be, once again, a very competitive division with Kansas City, the Chargers and the Broncos? You taking the over under for Harbaugh squad. All right. I think I may have a minority opinion here, but I'm in on the L.A. Chargers. I think the L.A. Chargers are going to win that division. I think the Chiefs are going to be better. I don't know if they're going to be as good as you think they are, Carrington. I know you know the team better than I do. I think the Broncos are prime for regression. I like Jim Harbaugh. I get Justin Herbert in the playoffs, and we don't know what we're going to get when we get to January wildcard weekend and the L.A. Chargers are playing whoever they're going to be playing there, the Ravens. I don't know what's happening then. But regular season Justin Herbert with Jim Harbaugh, with some of the moves they've made. I like Mesidor, their first-round pick. I like what they've done in the tight end room. They've got great 13 personnel there. I think the Chargers are something. I'm Arian Hampton. I think the Chargers are something. I think the Chargers are winning that division. I'm taking them over 10 and a half.”
“I'm going to go with the Steelers under eight and a half wins. the tomlin just cut me so hard right there he had the steelers and the jags in his notes and he drops the nobody's gonna be mad and then drops the steelers on a jags podcast are you joking what is this fuckery i will say the there there are only two win total bets that i have that i have placed and they are on the jags over nine and a half wins at plus 110 and the Steelers under 8.5 at minus 145. The one, if you said, gun to your head, you can only hold one of these bets through the season, for me, it's the Steelers.”
“that i have placed and they are on the jags over nine and a half wins at plus 110”
“I am all 10 toes on the ground, standing firm on the Rams under 11 and a half.”
“loves the under 11 and a half on the rams evan what about you what do you think yeah so my main approach here is doing exactly what our best bets are i think of these three teams the under will go two and one and that's part of my best bet thought process so kendra took the rams i'm gonna take seattle under 10 and a half uh we haven't talked about it on the show but they fall under a just a decent win total trend which are and i'll go through this quickly in 2024 detroit won 15 games”
“well that's where i am also 49ers under 10 and a half wins i think it's pretty easy to predict that the nfc west isn't going to produce three double digit winners in back-to-back seasons, the 49ers to me feel like the biggest regression candidate out there.”
“The biggest edge that I show right now is at DraftKings Falcons over six and a half minus 115.”
“I like the Bengals over 9.5 minus 140,”
“but I also love the Browns over 6.5 plus 105.”
“Anyway, Bengals, I am all in on them. I love their division odds at 2-1, over 9.5 wins.”
“I'm taking the Bengals to win the AFC at 12 to 1.”
“bet it now plus 140 to miss the playoffs but we looking after week two that could look mighty nice recap for you kendra on to the Chargers to miss the playoffs at plus 140”
“I kind of like the Colts to go under this season. I just don't know how good they are. Look at their roster. Look at the way last year ended. I don't trust Daniel Jones. I think that division is getting better, right? Jacksonville should be better again. Yes. I think Tennessee is getting better. Houston is going to be good again. Houston's defense is probably the best in the NFL right now. The Colts to me feel like if they go one and five in division, you're going under seven and a half.”
“that high for a reason Evan detailed it well in uh in his recap I like the Lions over 10 and a half”
“The Vikings to make the playoffs is awesome value right now at plus 170.”
“Under 10 and a half wins is a best bet type for me on the San Francisco 49ers.”
“there's a team with a really low win total that wins even fewer games in their win total uh i feel like that's always the fun one that everyone forgets they end up with two or three wins you end up catching your ticket no one realizes it i just feel like that has to be arizona I just don't know how with their division, with the fact that the teams that they face throughout the entire season, like some of the numbers are just absolutely incredible. It's incredible. Like their average win total they face is 9.3. It's the highest in history, like ever. Now, obviously, we've moved to a higher schedule within the last five years, but the number is still the highest within that distance. uh i mean again week one they're like an 11 point dog to the chargers which is going to be very similar to what the lines are going to kind of look like all season uh also on top of all those things fourth worst net rest so not only are is the schedule ridiculous but the schedule also did them no luck so there's like all these things is just ridiculous they also think about this one this one's crazy they face seven different opponents with a double digit win total across 10 separate matchups they face an average team of 47 to 1 in Super Bowl futures if you want a comparison the Bengals face a 93 to 1 on average so I mean it's just incredible how many teams and how many bad games Arizona has so I just feel like they're going to start bad and it's going to be a easier ticket than most or how bad they're supposed to be worst roster in the NFL perhaps them in Miami are duking it out for that. Both have win totals of four and a half.”
“Colin, I don't see it for the Colts. If you start 0-5, just forget about it. Write the season off. The problem is the Jets have their pick. So I am doubly invested. The under 7.5 for the Colts. Oh, yeah. Okay? I feel like I don't see the path to five wins for them, and the Jets get their pick.”
“i love the over nine and a half yes for the chargers here”
“Oh I look forward to this Your boy Brock Purdy Headline for the Niners This is a tough one because I got a lot of friends who are niners fans they like how i joined the bandwagon and i a purdy guy and i give you a little some some jabs every time you come at purdy this season is gonna be a tough one the headline for the 49ers this season will be the fourth and niners sf can forget about 10 wins colin you see the weather report there under 10 and a half seems like a lock yeah so this is the most travel it looks like in NFL history 38,000 miles that's a little crazy now some of the numbers here Colin I didn't realize so McCaffrey turns 30 this summer okay he just had the most touches in his NFL career oh 413 wow so allegedly the magic number used to be 370 if you hit that many touches next season was gonna be rough he destroyed that with 413 that's not great and then I looked up Trent Williams he's starting 38 this summer he is kind of a single point of failure for this offense he is if anything happens to him he's out for a couple weeks they're kind of cooked now I like you know Mike Evans new addition yeah we'll see Kirk good player yeah Ray Greenlaw very good linebacker but like you said they're old they kind of need that opener against the Rams they do because then you can start three you know they'll beat the Dolphins and Cardinals those will be those will be wins um I the first half of the season is manageable second half is tough and for an old team late in the season to have Rams, Chargers, Chiefs, Eagles. I mean, that's a December gauntlet you do not want to make. So we'll see a couple trips to the East Coast. I don't know, man. I'm sorry, under 10 and a half.”
“I'm going under 10 wins here. It's going all the way up on a Thursday, level three lock. And seeing some of the opponents outside the division for Chicago, they got to go to Buffalo. They got to go to Seattle.”
“Kendra going Carson back 25 to one offensive rookie of the year.”
“that I have a Makai Lemon future for him to have over four touchdowns”
“Evan Abrams is on Omar Cooper four plus touchdowns at minus one 20.”
“I'm going Casey Concepcion 28 to one and Denzel Boston 30 to one.”
“I'm going Casey Concepcion 28 to one and Denzel Boston 30 to one.”
“So I'm right there with you, Chet. I couldn't believe it's not just one or two people, right? It's multiple people now are trying to give this Giants team some credence and some hype. And I already told you where I'm at. It's one of my favorite unders. So I already hit it at seven and a half.”
“So, for example, earlier this week, I placed a wager on the Giants to make the postseason at plus 280.”
“Okay, I have this or that question for you. better bet right now Yankees to win the World Series at plus 850. I was just going to say this. Or the Mets to miss the playoffs at plus 140. I got to take the Yankees to win the World Series. And I think they have major warts and major deficiencies.”
“Joe Fortenball, the Dodgers over-under total for this season is 102.5 wins. What does the smart money say? The Dodgers can win the World Series like Buster likes without winning 103 games. I would play the under here.”
“friends at hard rock bet first off we've got the nfc east and the dallas cowboys are set at eight and a half wins uh it's minus 135 on the over plus 110 on the under so a little juice on the over the cow the whole nfc east their divisional matchups are the afc south and nfc west not easy afc south again i think median difficulty nfc west very tough dallas's strength of schedule games however i am pretty unlucky this is because they have the second place schedule de manzi which means they draw tampa instead of carolina baltimore instead of pittsburgh and green bay instead of chicago now i think i think chicago is better than Green Bay but you could argue those are the three toughest teams in those divisions They draw them all with a second-place schedule rather than a first-place schedule. But I think this is too low. I think the Cowboys are going to draft two defensive players in the first round. I think their offense is excellent. eight and a half. I thought Schottenheimer did a good job last year, and I don't think the rest of the division has a great team in it. And so we'll talk more about Philly in a minute. And so I think this is too low, and Dallas right now is my preseason lean for divisional winner. I think Dallas wins 11 games next year.”
“We got Philly. Their win total is at 10.5, plus 105 on the over, minus 125 on the under. So a little juice to the under. So they get the opposite of Dallas in that they have the first-place strength of schedule, but it really seems easier than Dallas' second-place strength of schedule. Their strength of schedule games are Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Chicago. This is an under to me. I think Sirianni enters the year on the hottest seat of just about any coach in the league this side of Todd Bowles. I think because they're going to have to trade A.J. Brown, I think they will after the draft, they're not going to get any benefit from that this year. They're going to get future draft capital i think the aging and the some of the uncertainty on the offensive line which has been such a huge position of strength for them plus some of the players they lost defensively in free agency i think this is a you know bit of a we saw it throughout last year to a from Philly. Could they make the playoffs? Sure. Could they win 10 games and maybe win the division? Maybe, but I think this is an under. I think they are more likely to win nine games than they are to win 12 games, and so at 10.5, I'll go with the under. Next.”
“Commander is set at 7.5, wins minus 110 on the over, minus 110 on the under. Their strength to schedule games are Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Minnesota. They, of course, play their own division plus the AFC South and NFC West. This is an under. I don't think they, despite”
“Our overs are, we are going over Dallas 8.5, over Chicago 9.5,”
“Green Bay Packers set at 10.5 wins, plus 100 on the over, minus 120 on the under. Slight under.”
“Next. Vikings are set at 8.5, plus 110 on the over, minus 135 on the under. Sorry, Paul. I'm going under.”
“Are you picking the division futures? Oh, thank you. I appreciate that. So just real quick, for the NFC, I would lean getting plus 325. I think it's a coin flip, Detroit and Chicago for the division. And so the fact that I'm getting double the odds on Chicago as I would on Detroit, I'll take Chicago. So at least right now.”
“NFC South, we got the Falcons at 7.5 wins, plus 105 on the over, minus 125 on the under. Are you picking the division futures? Oh, thank you. I appreciate that. So just real quick, for the NFC, I would lean getting plus 325. I think it's a coin flip, Detroit and Chicago for the division. And so the fact that I'm getting double the odds on Chicago as I would on Detroit, I'll take Chicago. So at least right now. All right, NFC South, they draw the AFC North and NFC North. Atlanta's third place strength of schedule games are Washington plus Kansas City and San Francisco. Bit of a bummer that that's your third place strength of schedule draw there. I will go with the under for the Falcons.”
“Oh, my bad. Carolina Panthers. Because I thought that was crazy. 6.5 wins, minus 150 on the over, plus 125 on the under. Listen, I understand that their strength of schedule games are brutal. Denver, Seattle, and Philly. but six and a half wins for a defending division champ that is returning its quarterback and coach is a slap in the face i mean they went toe-to-toe with the rams i don't love it but i will go with the over there i mean six and now there's a lot of juice on it six and a half wins is insulting”
“yeah for a defending division champion all right next you got the saints at seven and a half wins minus 120 on the over minus 105 on the under so the last place schedule for the saints doing a lot of work here their strength of schedule games in addition to playing the afc and nfc north raiders cardinals giants with that said raiders spent a lot of money The Giants we just said we thought could be mediocre I think the Saints are bad. Tyler Shuck, I thought played well last year to his credit. But they're in the midst of pulling themselves out of the abyss. I don't think they get to eight wins. I will go under in New Orleans.”
“All right, we got Tampa at 8.5 wins, minus 115 on the over, minus 105 on the under.”
“I like them at plus 160 to win the division.”
“What's the lowest win total? We got the Cardinals at four and a half wins, plus 110 on the over, and minus 135 on the under. I think they're the lowest. This is a bad job by me. Tied with the Dolphins for the lowest. Okay, that's what I thought. Their quarterback depth chart right now reads Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew Keaton Slovis which says to me they are ripe to be a team that takes a quarterback in the second or third round that has no business starting his rookie year and they start him This whole division gets the AFC West, which is brutal. NFC East, not so bad. Their strength of schedule games are Jets, Lions, and New Orleans. I think Arizona's got the makings of the worst team in their conference. I hate going under a win total that low, but I feel like they've got 0-6 in the division.”
“got the Rams at 10.5 wins minus 160 on the over plus 130 on the under if Stafford's healthy they're positioned to be the best team in the league and I love the they had one weakness last year secondary they took the Chiefs two best corners in McDuffie and Jalen Watson their strength to schedule games are Bills Green Bay and Tampa so not easy but it still feels like who's gonna be there next year well I do but I I have not read enough about that story I've only really to be totally honest just seeing the tweets and one picture it's not great and i do wonder i wonder if that's just enough for the rams to remember we said he's going to get more than jsn yeah but he hasn't signed anything yet right i i wonder what maybe they can compromise with them a little bit i don't know um but i still think they're a 13 win team that's an over next uh next we've got”
“is just right, so I'd stay away from it. Next. Seahawks at 10.5 wins, minus 135 on the over, and plus 110 on the under. Their strength of schedule games are New England, Chicago, Carolina. Not brutal for a first place team. I actually think that's an over. So I'm going to, I got two teams in that division with big win totals that I would go over on Seattle and the Rams and the”
“[29:15] Joe, what is your best bet surrounding Aaron Judge? [29:18] His batting average prop this year is 291. [29:21] I'm going to play the under.”
“The biggest is Shohei Ohtani. Joe, what is our best bet on the two-way superstar? Leeds Major League Baseball on RBIs pays 14-1. Love the price for a guy who just two seasons ago had 130 RBIs and finished second in Major League Baseball.”
“I do wind up betting more. First bet, Brewers over 84.5 wins.”
“Red Sox, team total. We're going over 87 and a half wins for the Red Sox.”
“I think the Angels are going to be in the 60s. I don't think they win 70 games. I think they might win 60, 65 ballgames. Let's go ahead and bet the under on the Angels. Under 70 and a half for the Angels.”
“So that is, yeah, that should be 72 and a half, under 72 and a half wins for the Miami Marlins here coming up.”
“Yeah. Kyle Schwarber is back on the list this year. RBI. 35 to one. I made him 20 to one last year for RBI leader. He's 35 to one this year. It was 50 to one last year. So I'm fine betting it at 35 to one still.”
“So the general takeaway and analyzing the futures market this year was much more value in the milestone and ladder props than there is in the outright leader props. The biggest edges I found on outright leader props was Otani RBI leader at 14 to one.”
“I like him, but Victor Scott at 25 to one, I think is a good bet as well.”
“the most interesting market maybe because the totals are so low for win totals or for, for pitcher wins, I should say. the winner of pitcher wins is only going to get 20 right or 22 at most you know compared to saves or strikeouts or hits or home runs like the gap is so much more compressed and everything is a little bit more random but logan webb at 20 to 1 Framber Valdez at 30 to 1 george kirby at 50 to 1 uh i think those are all great bets because what i found doing research into pitcher wins”
“the most interesting market maybe because the totals are so low for win totals or for, for pitcher wins, I should say. the winner of pitcher wins is only going to get 20 right or 22 at most you know compared to saves or strikeouts or hits or home runs like the gap is so much more compressed and everything is a little bit more random but logan webb at 20 to 1 Framber Valdez at 30 to 1 george kirby at 50 to 1 uh i think those are all great bets because what i found doing research into pitcher wins”
“the most interesting market maybe because the totals are so low for win totals or for, for pitcher wins, I should say. the winner of pitcher wins is only going to get 20 right or 22 at most you know compared to saves or strikeouts or hits or home runs like the gap is so much more compressed and everything is a little bit more random but logan webb at 20 to 1 Framber Valdez at 30 to 1 george kirby at 50 to 1 uh i think those are all great bets because what i found doing research into pitcher wins”
“And the point is that Kevin McGonigal is like the best prospect we've ever seen at those skills. The power and speed are pretty good, but he's more of like a 20-20 guy at best. He's not going to go 30-30 or 40-40, but he's probably going to hit 290 and have a really high on base percentage because his swing decisions are so elite. So he's 6-1 right now for rookie of the year. I think his floor is incredibly high, incredibly high. It's just a matter of whether the counting stats get surpassed by somebody else. But McGonagall right now, A.L. rookie of the year, I would lock that in. It's the most recent award bets I made.”
“So he's 6-1 right now for rookie of the year. I think his floor is incredibly high, incredibly high. It's just a matter of whether the counting stats get surpassed by somebody else. But McGonagall right now, A.L. rookie of the year, I would lock that in. It's the most recent award bets I made. So that's why I'm bringing it up. JJ Wetherholt in the NL. Similar case, probably not as good as McGonagall, but another really good swing decisions guy who may not have like the aesthetically pleasing athleticism that you would want, but a very safe floor.”
“completely opposite. So the Minnesota Twins are a team that the public projection market is really high on this year. They have them at about 77.5 wins. I have them at 70.6. Again, 77.5 versus 70.6. Their win total is 72.5. This is a team who is probably going to sell off a lot of pieces at the trade deadline. They did last year. They had to sell off minority shares of their ownership. So not only did they not invest in their roster, they were actively looking for investors into their team so that they could pay their roster. So this is not a team that's going to be adding pieces. It's only a team that's going to be selling pieces. As a result, I'm under their win total. I bet their win total under.”
“the braves are a team who i bet the win total under and i've also bet them to miss the playoffs during spring”
“I bet Houston at plus 155, plus 165 to miss the playoffs.”
“I bet San Diego in a similar range.”
“Right now, that bet that has the humongous edge is Seattle to win the AL West. So I think that's the best bet on the board.”
“Kendra? I think I'm going to switch gears here and I'm going to go with my boy. So Nelson. No, I'm going to go. Yes. I'm going to go with my boy, Paul Skeens, to make the postseason plus 225 on Giraffe Kings. Now that would be fun. We all need that. All right. Pirates into the postseason.”
“Chiefs at 10.5, plus 100 on the over, minus 120 on the under. All right. I must say, I adore, adore the Chiefs' strength of the schedule games. Oh, okay, yeah. The Colts, Bengals, Falcons. My goodness gracious. Finally, you don't win the division, and we end up with that. I'll take it. NFC West, obviously, is tough. So the Chiefs next year have two games against the Raiders. They get the Colts. They get the Falcons. They get the Jets. They get the Dolphins. They get the Cardinals. That's seven of their games. So if they go 6 against the bad teams to hit the over can they go 5 against Denver the Chargers the Pats the Niners Bills, Rams, Seahawks, Bengals? Now, Bills, Rams, Seahawks on the road, that's three very tough road games, no doubt about it. But the Chiefs are still the Chiefs. And winning 11 games was the absolute floor every single year prior to last year. That's too low. They're still the best team in that division. That's an over for me. And you can get plus 100 on the over.”
“all right last one oh we got the chargers at 10 and a half they're plus 115 on the over minus 140 on the under for a non-divisional winner their strength of schedule games are brutal they play the fate they play a second place schedule and every team every one of their strength of schedule games is the favorite to win the division Houston Baltimore Tampa Right Now I obviously said I not a huge believer in Houston but still they are the favorite This is a red hot under for me. This is way too, this is too high.”
“We are back and we'll go back to the NFL where projected win totals have been set for each team. We're going to play a little more or less Fortinball. Let's start with Baltimore where the Ravens have more or less wins than the set 11.5, which is the most of any team in the NFL. I'm going to go less, but it's not one of my more confident plays.”
“All right, more or less for the Dolphins. They gutted everything. More or less than four and a half wins. I would go less because I don't understand the purpose of winning five.”
“Their win total, nine and a half, more or less for Peyton and Denver. I'm going less here.”
“Will the Eagles have more or less than 10 and a half wins I going to go less I think the first thing on the board you say to yourself can they return to form from a rushing standpoint”
“The Cowboys are next up as they are projected to win 8.5, so more or less for the Cowboys. I'd go more.”
“All right, let's wrap up the Giants now. seven and a half. You said this is your team now. More or less than seven and a half projected wins. I'm going way more. I actually thought this football team, when they hired John Harbaugh,”
“Arizona, four and a half. Under. Agree.”
“Miami, four and a half. Under. Agree.”
“Las Vegas, five and a half. Fernando. But I'm still taking the under.”
“Atlanta, seven and a half. I'm going to go with the, I'm going with the over.”
“Washington, seven and a half. I'd go with the over there. I'd go with the over because I think they're going to get an easier schedule.”
“Washington, seven and a half. I'd go with the over there. I'd go with the over because I think they're going to get an easier schedule. Daniels is back for a full season. And their defense can only get better. And they know what the issues are. So I would like the over there. I'm taking the under. I get why you're taking the over, though. But to me, I think it's priced right. I'm just taking the under just because, once again, as much as I like Daniels,”
“Dallas Cowboys, eight and a half. I'll bite. I'm a sucker. I'll take the over.”
“Indy, eight and a half. [35:42] I'm going under here.”
“Indy, eight and a half. I'm going under here. Yeah. What is this number? It's too big. Number. Yeah. We don't even know when Daniel Jones is going to be playing. So are we saying that? do you remember what he did he tore his achilles right he tore his achilles yeah that's like and he tore his achilles midway through the year it's not like he tore his achilles in september so that like we've seen great quarterbacks miss the full year for that um in a division with houston jackson on a tennessee team we think it's gonna be better so chad chad's i think we're in alignment you're like the under right yes as i said under yeah so to me like this and the giants since you're two unders, I've been betting pretty heavily.”
“Giants seven and a half. that feels like a Harbaugh bounce, right? Like there's no other reason to be betting on the Giants at seven and a half if other than you think they are just going to completely revamp their culture because of what John Harbaugh is going to bring to that team. This is like one of my favorite under bets. And I know some pros that have been hammering this over.”
“Minnesota we talked about Pitt Is it eight and a half Taking the under on Pittsburgh I don know who the quarterback going to be I feel like they revamping their culture They aren't leaning into players they develop.”
“Denver, nine and a half. I'll take the over.”
“Denver, nine and a half. I'll take the over. We don't know what's going to be happening with Kansas City yet. And when Patrick Mahomes is going to come back, the Chargers are... could be 15-2. They could be 9-8. You never know with that team. I like what their defense is. They just added Jalen Waddell. We know Bo Nix will be back. I think that Sean Payton is a good enough coach that a 10-7 team with this talent is not at all inconceivable to me. I'd rather be betting the over on this team than the under. Yeah, and just like the Bills, this is one of my bigger, bigger bets I've made before this offseason, I'm taking their over.”
“Here I am with my lovely 75 to one ticket on Atlanta to win the Superbowl next year.”
“Yeah, well, maybe the worst division in baseball, at least maybe the least relevant. You know, what I often do when the offseason is starting to come to a conclusion and we getting pitchers and catchers reporting is I like to go to fan graphs and I like to go to baseball reference And on fan graphs you can check their projected standings for the year Those are typically pretty reliable And then in baseball reference what I like to do is check two major stats from the year prior, a team's record against teams who are above 500 and a team's record in one run games. Now the Kansas City Royals meet the criteria for a team that should improve from their record last year based on their one run games and their record against teams above 500. The rest of the AL Central, I don't know so much about them. Now, Fangraphs has projected standings of the Detroit Tigers at 87 wins, winning the AL Central, and the Royals in second at 82 wins. But I think that's a bit off. Now, the Royals didn't do anything very flashy this offseason. They added Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas to the lineup. These are more contact hitters. They had one of the worst batting averages as a team in Major League Baseball last year. So I think these can be some low risk, high reward additions to the batting lineup. The bullpen itself, the bullpen and the starting pitching was great. The starting pitching was seventh in baseball in Team ERA last year. And then as far as the relievers go, they added Matt Strom, who we'll talk about a little bit later, Alex Lang and Nick Mears to a reliever group that was already already really solid. You've seen several of their relievers showing out so far in the World Baseball Classic. Now, this was a bang average team last year. They weren't anything special. They should have been a little bit better than they were by their Pythagorean win-loss record. But they did have an expectation of competing this year. They have Jack Caglione, hopefully taking a bigger role in the professional lineup and the majors this year. They're working on shortening the fence at their park as well to make it a little bit more hitter-friendly, which should help him. And then there's another name to keep an eye on, Mikel Garcia. He was one of their top prospects last year. He ended up with a top 10, if not top 15 batting average and OPS in all of baseball last year. But he's playing for a Royals team that wasn't really stiff in the playoffs by come September, October. So we didn't hear much about him. Either way, both of those guys, Caglione and Garcia, should be taking bigger roles with the lineup this year. Now, Cleveland should fall off a bit again this year after their late season surge. I feel like we've been saying that for the last five or six years about this Guardians team. But Jose Ramirez seems to just be keeping them afloat. But I also look at Detroit, and I wonder how different this team could look come July or August. Can Tarek Skubal get traded by the deadline with his pending free agency approaching? Yes, they signed Frommer Valdez, but Reese Olsen, who is going to be their two or three starter this year, is out for the year of shoulder surgery. All of a sudden, if Skubal's gone and if Reese Olsen struggles, you're looking at Jack Flaherty as your number two behind Frommer. And Frommer fell off towards the end of last year as well. So the starting pitching staff for the favorite, I think, is very flawed. The starting lineup for the favorite is very flawed. I don't see Cleveland competing as much as they did last year. You're going to give me the Royals at plus 220 to take the division crown? I'll absolutely take that. Give me the Kansas City Royals at plus 220 to win the AL Central. But a little, win a whole lot.”
“Well, one thing that immediately jumps to mind when you think about the Phillies in the grand scheme of the NL East is that the Marlins improved a little bit last year, but the Atlanta Braves dropped maybe 30 wins that they probably should have had, or at least were projected to have coming into the season. You would again, expect the Braves to be an improvement on that last year. This division is not going to be a cakewalk for this Philadelphia Phillies team. I posted on my on our X account the other day Paramount MLB that I think we could see upwards of four new division winners this year And I think the NL East is one of them You have a Braves team that could absolutely compete with the Phillies if healthy Now, the Braves have already dealt with a ton of pitching injuries late in this offseason. They might even be dealing with some more. And they just lost a big reliever, Joey Wentz, the other day to a torn ACL after a fluke injury in spring training. But then you look at the New York Mets. All three of these teams are projected around the high 80s in their season win total. In fact, I think the Mets might be at 90 and a half now, depending on what book you look at. I'm not the biggest fan of the Mets this year, but I do feel more confident in fading the Phillies. Like I said, this is a better division if both of those two teams can stay healthy and if the Marlins can continue to progress through their rebuild and be effective, especially late in the year like they were last year. When you look at their offseason additions and subtractions, they lost Matt Strom to the Royals, and he was a pretty good bullpen piece for them, at least a long reliever at times. They lost Nick Cassianos, who's probably a net negative, at least in the field nowadays. But they also lost Ranger Suarez to free agency. And that is a massive loss for a team that really relies on his pitching, his left-handed pitching, to get them across big competitive games and help them in playoff series, help them in big divisional series as well. And really all they did, yes, they added Adoles Garcia, but I think Adoles Garcia and Nick Cassianos are like-for-like additions and subtractions at this point in their careers. and then they re-signed JT Real Muto. Not only re-signing him, but re-signing him to a three-year deal is just shocking to me. He is a below-league average catcher. They've known they needed a new catcher in that lineup for a long time now, and Real Muto getting a three-year deal just doesn't seem productive to me at all. Now, they did just re-sign Jesus Luzardo, but again, this isn't a team that added much to stay competitive in the upper echelons of the National League this year. they're going to have to rely on, yes, the number one prospect in baseball, Andrew Painter. They're also going to have to rely on Aaron Nola this year to fill in for Zach Wheeler, who's going to be out until at least late May, if not after that, with some blood clots that he's been dealing with all year, excuse me, last year. If we can remember just the last season, though, Aaron Nola was, again, a below league average pitcher. Jesus Lizardo was below league average at times as well. And Andrew Painter, when he has come up to the big leagues, has struggled quite a bit, especially with his command. So, this starting pitching staff all of a sudden looks much more flawed than it did last year. It's something you'd expect the Phillies to have in control really perennially as a contender in the NL East. And all of a sudden, their pitching depth and their up top, their elite pitching staff is just not there anymore. I think this is a rebuild a long time coming for this team. And in a more competitive, presumably a healthier division in the NL East, I think we're going to start seeing big major signs of that for the first time in recent memory. Give me the Philadelphia Phillies under 89 and a half wins this year. Minus 110. We'll go with a level one lock.”
“or is it just something that you ignore Yeah we also had the two favorites went for Cy Young last year as well and Scoobble and Skeens because they stayed healthy So last year was a very chalky awards market because all the favorites stayed healthy for the entire year I think that that is extremely unlikely to happen again, and I think as a result, one of them probably loses their award category. Factor in poor performance, potentially, or just poor variance on top of that. I think Otani is much safer than Judge, because one, Otani DHs, so he doesn't have the probability of getting hurt in the field. He's only going to get hurt on the base pass. Two, he pitches, which adds to his wins above replacement total. And even if he gets hurt as a pitcher, he could still DH and accumulate all the wins above replacement. He does a DH. I think Judge is the likeliest one of those four to get hurt. Judge has a lingering toe issue, which he said he will have to monitor for the rest of his career. But it's something that cannot be fixed. So if it starts to flare up again, he's going to have to miss time. And missing three weeks, four weeks could be enough to open the door for somebody else like a Bobby Wood Jr. or Gunnar Henderson or Julio Rodriguez to potentially pass him in war and end up stealing the award. War, wins above replacement, is the most important correlative stat in terms of predicting the winner for these categories. And you accumulate that one by being good, but two, by playing a full season. So it is, by and large, going to come down to injury for these guys. Scooble is the only one of the four that I bet, only one of the four favorites that I bet.”
“Cease is a guy I bet for Cy Young, for AL Cy Young, which I did also bet Tarek Skool in”
“The wins market to me is very interesting just because there's so much variance, right? And so is there, obviously you're. You can only cap the winner so high. The winner's not going to get more than like 20, right? So the separation is narrow. Skubo's obviously the leader, but I'm assuming you are looking a bit more down the board. Anyone worth mentioning? Yeah, I like his teammate. I like Frambois Valdez. I bet him at about 30 to one.”
“16 plus wins for Fromber is the only wins milestone bet I placed, but it's actually a bigger edge than his outright prop.”
“Winsleader. Kirby, the most optimal bet for me was Winsleader. I don't think I have any other bets on Kirby. If I do, it might be like 200 plus strikeouts. But by and large, I allocated Kirby Winsleader, Wu strikeouts, and Gilbert strikeouts.”
“I bet Gilbert K leader props. I bet Gilbert K ladder props. I bet Brian Wu K leader props I bet Brian Wu K ladder props So I talking like 200 210 plus 220 plus I think there much bigger edges on those props for Gilbert than there is in his wins leader market. But those outcomes are essentially correlated. In order to get to the 200 plus strikeout level, he's going to need to start enough games to be in consideration for the wins leader market.”
“I bet Brian Wu K leader props I bet Brian Wu K ladder props So I talking like 200 210 plus 220 plus I think there much bigger edges on those props for Gilbert than there is in his wins leader market. But those outcomes are essentially correlated. In order to get to the 200 plus strikeout level, he's going to need to start enough games to be in consideration for the wins leader market. So I'm just trying to optimize my betting card, my futures card in terms of the best”
“And if he's going to get there, he's going to strike out 200 plus hitters. This was one of my biggest edges in terms of milestone props. Jacob Marcy's stolen base ladder was my other biggest edge in terms of milestone props. When I was sitting here at home, I was unable to get the money down that I wanted on those props. and as a result ended up traveling out of state and driving three hours each way right before that two-foot blizzard that we got here in New York and round tripping it all within 24 hours so I could get down on most of these props, but especially the Trey Yesavage props. So yeah, I really like Yosavage this year. He is the AL favorite, I believe, for Rookie of the Year alongside his teammate Kazuma Akimoto, who came over from Japan. But essentially, Yosavage's Rookie of the Year odds kind of align, or not even align with. They fall short of his odds to get 200 plus Ks. So why would I bet Yosavage at 6-1 for Rookie of the Year, when in order to win that award, he probably needs to get 200 plus Ks, and I can get 9-1 on his 200 plus K props.”
“Are you thinking about it the same way for RBIs? Do you have anyone you're targeting there? Schwarber, we cashed last year. I'm right on Schwarber again this year at 35 to 1. So the whole the whole thesis with Schrober last year was he used to hit lead off he's moving down to second flipping lineup spots with Trey Turner should add 10-15 RBI to his total I projected him at 20-1 last year they gave me 50-1 I projected him at 21 last year they still gave me 35-1 so yeah I'm backing on Schrober this year 100%”
“And if not, is there anyone you like either the lead in stolen bases or any stolen base props? Yeah, there's two guys I really like from a stolen base perspective from the outright. Three guys I like if you include the milestones. Simpson is absolutely on that list. Simpson is basically Billy Hamilton, except he strikes out half as often as Billy Hamilton. Billy Hamilton had a career 20% strikeout rate. Simpson was at 10% last year. So even though he doesn't walk or get on base, he puts the ball in play always. And the speed is going to get him on base because he's so ridiculously fast. As I said, the fastest home to first time in the stack cast era by like a tenth of a second, which means he's probably the fastest ever. I doubt anybody before the stack cast era was running as fast as this dude. Now, I do project value on his outright prop. I make him about plus 450. I bet him at five to one.”
“I bet Julio Rodriguez for AL MVP.”
“Matt Mitchell. Here we'll go. Buffalo bills minus 10 and a half. One, two, three. Oh, uh, uh, this is, this feels like an easy, easy over for me. Uh, Josh Allen. I don't care who the new head coach is. I like Joe Brady. I think he'll be able to make that offensive work, what he's done these last couple of years, leaning more into the run, protecting the ball more with Josh. I love it all. I mean, to me, the question has always been on the defense, and I don't see it as a negative getting rid of, you know, what I view it as a... a mid-level coach in the way he especially coached the defense now. And, you know, Sean McDermott had his time. And I do think here this is a low total where if they still had him, this is probably 11 and a half. Maybe the public feels more confident about it. I'm the other way. It feels like last year was a down year for that Bills team. I think this is way, way over. So I've hit this quite a little bit, Chad.”
“Detroit, 10 and a half, minus 135 to the over, plus 110 to the under. This is a tricky one. Detroit, 10 and a half. Let me think about it. One, two, three, under. Yeah, this is, again, just like the Bills, this is my second biggest bet I've made in this offseason. Wow. And in the under. Yeah, I can't believe it. This feels like a line from the past. We talk all the time, football, your window closes pretty quick. And you can lie to yourself and say, well, they've had bad injury luck. That O-line is done. There is no saving that O-line. They've had guys retiring. They've had guys with a ton of injuries. They've not drafted right for the O-line. And we've seen if golf doesn't have an O-line, I mean, that's going to be a big problem. So to me, maybe your defense gets a little healthier. But in that division, I just think Green Bay is going to be better. I think the Bears, even though you can say they went way better than they should have been last year, they're going to build off that. This is going to be a year or two of Ben Johnson. So even with the questions you might have with the Vikings in the clear position, I think 10.5 is a pass line. So I know some pros who have actually liked this over, and they've been betting it. You can get this now at a plus number for the under. So a couple of different blocks, plus 120, plus 115. I really like this under on the Detroit team”
“the Carolina Panthers over six and a half.”
“So I saw on the prediction market, 63% that he will be traded. I'm betting against that. I think he's an eagle next year.”
“Let's do a game of more or less in February. Damian, Woody, we start with you. Steelers won 10 games last season, first year with Mike McCarthy at the helm. Win total, we don't know who the quarterback is. Eight and a half wins, more or less. Say less.”
“year, which sends us to the New York Giants, because we look at their win total, seven and a half. John Harbaugh takes over as the head coach with Matt Nagy, the offensive coordinator. We go to Tim Hasselbeck. More or less, seven and a half wins for the Giants, Tim. A little more.”
“It's time to start talking about NFL season futures. um super bowl 61 odds at hard rock bet right now the los angeles ramps the seattle seahawks the buffalo bills at plus 1100 uh the rams and the seahawks are both at plus 900 those are the shortest odds right now the ravens plus looks like 1300 packers plus 1400 eagles simon they're plus 1400 have you looked at any of these yet have you given any serious thought to these yet not really like i did put a single bet on the chiefs because i book did hang them at 15 to 1”
“So we'll go with first the L.A. Chargers plus the 700 and the Detroit Lions plus 800. Bet a little. Went a whole lot.”
“So we'll go with first the L.A. Chargers plus the 700 and the Detroit Lions plus 800. Bet a little. Went a whole lot.”
“well so i bet the bears at 27 to 1 just so that i would have just so that i would have the ticket uh i bet them at 27 to 1 immediately”
“And then the Chargers, again, I've been on them all year, so no one's going to be surprised by it. But if they get Alton Slater back, which they will, those are arguably their second and third best players. And then you added one of the best offensive minds and play designers in the NFL, but he doesn't have to do the culture football guy stuff. He just gets to be a genius in Mike McDaniel. So you're going to make it easier for Justin Herbert to hit layups. You're going to protect Justin Herbert. And they have a ton of cap space to plug holes, whether they want to do the interior of their offensive line, whether they want to get a little bit younger at some key spots on defense. They're in a great spot. So listen, the problem is that I've had a Chargers future probably five of the last six years. So, again, not the most creative take, and it sounds like maybe I agree with you, but those are two futures bets that I absolutely love.”
“If they stay healthy, I think we'll be looking back at this price, 17 to 1 for the Niners, and saying, man, remember that? Remember that. tomorrow on the show, we'll get into more of the teams on the odds board, but wanted to draw the line there. The Niners, my way too early pick, I reserve the right to change my mind, but that's where I am at right now.”
“I'm going to go with the Falcons. I already placed the bet on it. 75 to one.”
“the division sets up well for the chargers too it's 20 to 1 i think the chargers are next year's rams and hopefully they actually make the super bowl in that one did you look it up is it la so we could get a home super bowl too i was just going to say you nailed it It at SoFi So we taking the Chargers to win the Super Bowl at home And listen the Rams you know we almost got there this year So we take the Chargers on the AFC side. Chargers at home with the home field penalty as I often give them at SoFi Stadium. So I'm not sure if that's good or bad for our bet, but we'll go out with Chargers 20 to 1 either way for 2027.”
“Listen, I'll definitely bet the Chiefs at 15-1 to win the Super Bowl.”
“So this is where you were really laughing at me. Kendra's already giving me shit for this. The coffee was really hitting yesterday. I bet the Falcons to win next year's Super Bowl. That's how in the weeds we got. 75 to 1.”
“Absolutely. I'm going more.”
“How about you? Favorite ACC win totals? Yeah, I think we're doing the listeners some justice here because we've got almost every team encompassed here with some sort of total. I'm saying BC under six and a half. There are six and a half out there. Shop port and get it because I think six would be a push. That's tough sledding for them with the back end of that schedule. Florida State over all the way.”
“If you get extra $10 and you don't get guacamole on your Chipotle, maybe you want to think about that. Anyways, Florida State over their win total. Pitt over their win total.”
“And let's finish up with our favorite win totals in the ACC. Look, I said it before, I'll start with mine. I think there's a lot of sharp win totals in the ACC, and it's just a tough conference to cap because there's so many teams outside of Clemson that are so close. There's a ton of coin flip games that you might as well not lock up your money and wait until the season starts. However, there are a couple that do stick out to me that I might be investing in. So I think Duke, NC State, Virginia, BC, Pitt, Wake, Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville all look about right. The unders that I would look at, But UNC and Georgia Tech just with all of the changes and the coordinators and the different systems I think there a lot that can go wrong And then Syracuse I just think it too high here and the love from last year is carrying over with that schedule quarterback change It just I don think everything is going to go as right with Syracuse who will have that special teams that give them an edge but I think eight too high for them And then the overs sound really square, but I like Virginia Tech and Miami as the only two overlooks in the ACC. Both schedules are very favorable. I think they, you know, just if they win the games, they should. They should get the nine wins with chances at upsets. I think both defenses are going to be good. I think Votek's defense is going to bounce back. Miami's defense is excellent. And I think we talked about that regression to the mean. I think you're going to see that with Virginia Tech. I think Miami gets them in Miami and wins that game. But I actually like both overs with Votek and Miami getting to nine wins.”
“And let's finish up with our favorite win totals in the ACC. Look, I said it before, I'll start with mine. I think there's a lot of sharp win totals in the ACC, and it's just a tough conference to cap because there's so many teams outside of Clemson that are so close. There's a ton of coin flip games that you might as well not lock up your money and wait until the season starts. However, there are a couple that do stick out to me that I might be investing in. So I think Duke, NC State, Virginia, BC, Pitt, Wake, Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville all look about right. The unders that I would look at, But UNC and Georgia Tech just with all of the changes and the coordinators and the different systems I think there a lot that can go wrong And then Syracuse I just think it too high here and the love from last year is carrying over with that schedule quarterback change It just I don think everything is going to go as right with Syracuse who will have that special teams that give them an edge but I think eight too high for them And then the overs sound really square, but I like Virginia Tech and Miami as the only two overlooks in the ACC. Both schedules are very favorable. I think they, you know, just if they win the games, they should. They should get the nine wins with chances at upsets. I think both defenses are going to be good. I think Votek's defense is going to bounce back. Miami's defense is excellent. And I think we talked about that regression to the mean. I think you're going to see that with Virginia Tech. I think Miami gets them in Miami and wins that game. But I actually like both overs with Votek and Miami getting to nine wins.”
“I do want to start with Kentucky because the projections for them, probably anywhere from five to six wins, depending on where you're looking right now. At the Action Network, Colin Wilson has him projected for 5.45 wins and only two conference wins. Where are you coming in on that, Drew Franklin? I mean, take my money. I'm all in on the over.”