Pending picks

“Phillies on the money line over the Marlins that's the best bet money line straight up let's go”

“I'm on the Texans plus one and a half at home against the Buffalo Bills.”

“Yeah, you're right. I did it. Texans. I liked it as well. I was waiting for it's like minus one Oh five on the money line right now. You got to pay some juice like minus 122, minus 120 change on plus one and a half. I'm good with either. I probably would prefer just the money line at that price to save a little juice on that. So I'm with you, Texans. I agree with everything you said. I just feel like it's priced a little bit differently or wrongly. And I kind of like Houston in the spot.”

“Jordan, the number for Alabama is low. Eight and a half wins for Alabama. Jordan, you going over or under? Boy, I'm going under.”

“Louis Riddick is with us from here, and Jordan Rodgers is with us from there, looking at teams' win totals this season, according to DraftKings. Jordan, the number for Alabama is low. Eight and a half wins for Alabama. Jordan, you going over or under? Boy, I'm going under. I think this number is right on the money, but I look at the quarterback questions that they have. Two guys in competition. The questions all around the quarterback. Lost some of their best receivers, their best tight end, their number one running back, four offensive linemen. I think they hit some bumps in the road, and I think they get right at that number eight. That would mean their worst season since Nick Saban's first season in Tuscaloosa. Lewis, 8.5 is the number for LSU as well with Lane Kiffin. You going over or under? Look, there's no other choice. It's got to be over. It's got to be over.”

“And then, Jordan, let's talk about Texas. Their number is nine and a half wins at DraftKings. Over or under? Hammer the over.”

“thanks so much later let's get to our plant the flag once again presented by draft kings but this time we're going to keep it inside of our top 10 what you got middleton plant the flag get it set up i'm trying to plant my flag here okay you're really planting your flag in that thing i think my favorite bet that i have placed this is now hopping over my cleveland browns bet drake may over five and a half rushing touchdowns plus 180 is my favorite bet that i have logged all season long”

“That is going to be a buddy bet because I love that very much. Drake May over five rushing touchdowns, plus 180.”

“I like Drake May as well. 4,000 plus passing yards at plus 135.”

“please is how we view both of these guys all right let's get to our draft kings plant the flag segment of the day plant the flag get it set up i'm trying to plant my flag here okay you're really planted your flag in that thing our top 20 is just about wrapped but we will plant our flag on a season-long prop for one of the guys that we have already discussed on the episode today kendra get us started i have a jackson dart over five and a half rushing touchdowns played to give you guys even if kravitz is right and he doesn't survive the season because he doesn't know how to slide or to protect himself and his brain. I think that this could hit before that even happens to him because we know what we can do. We know what he's capable of. And I think at times because of the offense that they're going to run this year, he is going to be their best option within the 10 of the five because with all these old guys that are weirdly going to draw attention somehow that don't deserve to, I think that we could be looking at this. So I'm going to go with Jackson Dart over the five and a half rushing touchdowns.”

“I have Brock Purdy 20 to one to win MVP.”

“tails here that you can talk me into give me the final order of finish in the most difficult division in football the nfc north yeah man i mean all i know is i'm on the vikings at five to one instead at the bottom of the group.”

“but them and the Ravens they're not that much different and the fact that the Ravens are the number one favorite to be the number one seed and the Bengals are down here 11-1 my model has them literally neck and neck so just going based off values I have them both at plus 600 that means I'm getting a free plus 500 right now on this Bengals team so like again I'm not the biggest Bengals believer my model jumps out to that it's like I have to take notice and say okay I might be a little too hard on Joe Burrow and Zach Taylor, this is good. This is a good number. This is something I need to bet. So I did bet at 12 to one. I've been at 11 to one. I would keep taking it until it drops down to below 10 to one. I think it's a good value right now on this Bengals team.”

“All right. So our Simon says presented by hard rock bets, Eagles to beat the chiefs in the super bowl at a hundred to one. Our Chad's Choice, presented by Hard Rock Bet, New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs at plus 200.”

“their respected conferences so um right there jumped out if you want to do the flip side the chiefs to beat the eagles same thing at hard rock 100 101 we just talked about the bangles i like people know i like betting repeat super bowls and it happens it just i mean it sounds crazy but every year it happens patriots seahawks repeat super bowl matchup like these things that the nfl is so cyclical, it's so repeatable. Since I had Bengals to beat the Rams, 100-1. Again, I'm looking at 101 bets.”

“So my Chad's choice is going to be the New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs at plus 200.”

“numbers from draft kings first one let's head to the wide receiver room head-to-head prop between former teammates devonta smith and aj brown who is now with the patriots so who will have more receiving yards this year, Brown or his former teammate Smith. Mike T., we begin with you. A.J. Brown, that's why they got him. He is a big physical wide receiver, third down red zone. Look for him to be very productive to build on Drake May's 31 touchdown passes a year ago. I love Devontae Smith and his skill set. One question we don't know about Devontae Smith, who's about 40 pounds lighter than A.J. Brown, is can he go across the middle? So I think they got A.J. Brown. The head coach loves him. They're going to feature him. I think Devontae Smith's still very good, but I'm going with Brown.”

“and I don't feel that way about the Patriots offense, and I think the way they're going to use A.J. Brown in terms of a downfield threat will lead to more yards. Jordan Rodgers, jump in here. Do you see it the same way as these two guys, or would you go the other way with Smith? No, I'm going the same way, and I think he breaks that sneaky record we just saw of Tyreek Hill and has over 1,700 yards, and here's why.”

“Jordan Rodgers, jump in here. Do you see it the same way as these two guys, or would you go the other way with Smith? No, I'm going the same way, and I think he breaks that sneaky record we just saw of Tyreek Hill and has over 1,700 yards, and here's why. Drake May loves to push the ball downfield. They led the NFL in air yards per attempt last year. He was a runner-up for the MVP, and he did it with Stephon Diggs, Kayshaun Booty, and Mack Hollins. Now he's got A.J. Brown, and on the other side, Romeo Dobbs, who they traded for for the Packers, who led them in receiving. So not all the attention is going to be on A.J., but he's going to get a heavy share of the shots downfield. I think he's going to make an immediate impact. I'm surprised at the pricing here. I would have made this closer to minus 160, so I agree with you guys. I would play Brown.”

“I think we going to get to that later but A Brown going to play a big part in that All right clean sweep across the board We all have A Brown over Devonta Smith Next one let go to the defensive side of the ball Miles Garrett after nine years in Cleveland he now with the Rams and the prop we have is will he break the single season sack record, which, by the way, he set last year at 23. So we need 23.5 sacks for the yes to cash on this prop. It is plus 800. Mike T., we begin with you. Does he break the sack record? 100%, and here's why.”

“and the prop we have is will he break the single season sack record, which, by the way, he set last year at 23. So we need 23.5 sacks for the yes to cash on this prop. It is plus 800. Mike T., we begin with you. Does he break the sack record? 100%, and here's why. You don't even want to give yourself 1% of wiggle room here? Here's why. Take copious notes here, Joe. Yeah. This is going to be a really good offense. When you're really good on offense the way the Rams are going to be, that's going to give Miles Garrett a lot more at-bats in the second half to sack the quarterback that he had in Cleveland a year ago. So if you just think about the way these games are going to be played, their opponents are going to be behind, something the Browns really weren't a year ago. So to me, just from a logic standpoint, this really sets up well for him with or without Aaron Donald, by the way, because I think if Aaron Donald's there, he's just going to see more remarkably one-on-one pass sets. So to me, I think this really sets up for a monster year for Myles Garrett. Jordan Rodgers, do you see it the same way as Mike T, where Myles Garrett has 65 sacks this year? No, I don't. It's just so hard. There's a reason that record of Michael Strahan stood for 24 years. You kind of have to have a little bit of luck. Last year, Myles Garrett had a three-game stretch where he had 10 sacks. five in one game, then one, then four. You kind of have to have some things break your way. I just don't think they do.”

“So finally, let's look at this year's MVP chase. Profit Draft Kings, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen against the field. So, Lamar and Josh Allen, you can take them as a package deal, plus 265 to win the MVP award. Graz, we'll start with you. Who has the better chance at the MVP this season, Lamar or Josh Allen? I would say Josh Allen. I believe his team will be better. But, yeah, I think it's – I would say Josh Allen. I mean, it's good that they're the co-favorites. Obviously, we know they can win it, and if all goes well, they'll be in contention. Whenever Lamar Jackson's had a fully healthy season, he's been at or near the top of the MVP balloting. There's so much uncertainty in both places, really, due to the coaching changes, but especially on offense in Baltimore. Would you like them, or would you like the field? I would take the field.”

“So finally, let's look at this year's MVP chase. Profit Draft Kings, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen against the field. So, Lamar and Josh Allen, you can take them as a package deal, plus 265 to win the MVP award. Graz, we'll start with you. Who has the better chance at the MVP this season, Lamar or Josh Allen? I would say Josh Allen. I believe his team will be better. But, yeah, I think it's – I would say Josh Allen. I mean, it's good that they're the co-favorites. Obviously, we know they can win it, and if all goes well, they'll be in contention. Whenever Lamar Jackson's had a fully healthy season, he's been at or near the top of the MVP balloting. There's so much uncertainty in both places, really, due to the coaching changes, but especially on offense in Baltimore. Would you like them, or would you like the field? I would take the field. You'd go with the field. Jordan Rodgers, jump in here. You get Lamar and Josh Allen, or you get the field. Which way would you go? I'm taking the two guys that, when they're healthy, are really the most dynamic players in the NFL because they can throw it downfield.”

“where we dive into some numbers from DraftKings. For the first one, we'll call this the Mike McCarthy Bowl. After taking a year off, McCarthy has reemerged as the head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. So which team will have more regular season wins this year, the Steelers or his former team, the Dallas Cowboys, who are currently favored to have more? Jordan Rodgers, jump in. You've got first crack. Yeah, I'm going to go with the Steelers. Look, I think both have big ifs, right?”

“Kendra's on Micah Parsons, 10 to one.”

“A recap for you for our DraftKings Comeback Player of the Year. Kendra's on Micah Parsons, 10 to one. Stucky on Kyler Murray with the Vikings at 6 to one. And I'm on Malik neighbors, 16 to one with the New York Giants. you can bet on all of those over on draft Kings,”

“I am going to go with Jeremiah Love over eight touchdowns on the season plus 250 i think even though he's a rookie he's gonna see a ton of probably a lot of goal line easy easy number for me there”

“I'm going to go with Ashton Gentry 40 to one to win offensive player of the year.”

“I like the over 9.5 for the Chargers.”

“I like the Chiefs under 10 and a half.”

“Browns over five and a half,”

“take the under 11 and a half on the Ravens how hard it is to win 12 games in this division they've got a new head coach the Ravens have a new offensive coordinator they have a new defensive coordinator and you and I all watched Lamar Jackson last year he regressed his rushing numbers went down to under 30 yards rushing a game. Again, this is the highest win total in the NFL. And I don't know, Aaron Rodgers, Burrow, a talented Cleveland team, they were eight and nine last year. And again, I think their schedule early is workable, but in the middle of it, I see a lot of Jags, Burrow, Bills, Chargers, Texans, Baker Mayfield. I think it's tough in the middle. I like the under on the Ravens.”

“it would be Giants over seven and a half.”

“I gonna go Packers under nine and a half I like them but I think the division really good Folks Jordan Love never won more than nine games in any of his last three years and the division never been better. Ben Johnson and Caleb year two, Kyler Murray upgraded quarterback for Minnesota, Detroit major upgrade at left tackle and offensive coordinator. So Micah Parsons is not going to be ready for the start of the season. The Packers were 0-4 when Micah didn't play. They also lost Rashawn Gary, and Jeff Halfley was an excellent defensive coordinator. And by the way, Jordan Love's been dinged up. Oh, funny, now they don't have a backup in Malik Willis. This is an easy one for me. I can like a team. 9-8 feels about where they land. I like the under. Don't hate the Packers. I just don't love them. Under on Green Bay.”

“Saints feel pretty confident about this, over seven and a half, all barring a major injury at quarterback.”

“Finally, the Jets under 5.5.”

“Louisville, I bet Louisville against Ole Miss. It's six and a half. It's Braum. Braum with prep. Braum is a dog.”

“My first future we talked about the other day. Ravens under 11 and a half wins.”

“I couldn't believe it when I saw those odds, Chad. Plus 350, you don't really see that unless it's what this is, which is a super team. This is truly a super team. So, you know, I get why the general public is so in love with it, but I think that's why I loved how many people loved my bet on them to miss the playoffs. It's just so many sickos out there that agree with me, which is like, dude, you're one bad hit away. Like we saw with Mahomes last year from the whole season. just being over like this. You lose a quarterback, even if they lose Stafford for five, six weeks and he comes back in that division and how tough the NFC is. We're not even talking about the NFC North, potentially having the three teams making the playoffs talking about the Cowboys as well. There's just a lot of teams that could sneak in that six, seven seat that could bump this ramps team out. So, you know, I rather, I don't want people betting on a super bowl. That was my whole point of this was like, don't be betting on them at plus five 50 or plus 600. If anything, take a bit of a small bet on them and miss the playoffs. because that's where the value is.”

“we like the value we're seeing in the half point, the hook on Cleveland at plus seven and a half”

“They are three and a half point favorites at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And the Bucs are one of those teams last year that just, we couldn't get the right read on them. We were constantly feeling like, when are they going to become in the second half of the year We kept waiting for them to be the team they were in the first half of the year And they couldn quite get over the top Too many injuries things caught up with them I don know that I got enough faith to bet the Bengals who have just historically been one of those teams that let you down, as three and a half point home favorites in week one on the road against the Buccaneers. Simon says, give me the Bucs plus three and a half. I want to play a game Simon says I cannot believe this number is still up that's how much I've been betting it”

“Because the Bears are on the road playing the Carolina Panthers. Bears minus two and a half. So what are we going to do here? Classic rock in a hard place, hard rock, bet of the week. Because, of course, I want to at least be on the side of the Bears as short road favorites. But I know the right side is Carolina. We are going to be fading the Bears all season long.”

“Because the Bears are on the road playing the Carolina Panthers. Bears minus two and a half. So what are we going to do here? Classic rock in a hard place, hard rock, bet of the week. Because, of course, I want to at least be on the side of the Bears as short road favorites. But I know the right side is Carolina. We are going to be fading the Bears all season long. I feel like going into week one, Dave Canales is a really good coach. Obviously, I believe in Ben Johnson. But this is the spot where we have backed Bryce Young again and again and again. You talk about betting Baker as a dog, Bryce Young as a dog in this spot since the middle of two seasons ago, 2024. He's been earning. You got to take the Panthers. I guess I got to say, you got to take the Panthers. I want to rock! Got to take the Panthers. Could you believe the total of this game, though? 44 and a half? Yeah. Feels incredibly low. For two offenses, I think they're going to move the ball. Yes. That are very suspect to me. Yes. I know the Bears are trying to improve the defense, but they've also lost a couple of key pieces. So I know they're going to be healthier, obviously, than last year. But, yeah, I'm right there with the Panthers. The number line, I'm hoping that gets the three because that's where I'm going to be most comfortable with the Panthers just because what we've talked a little bit about, like, if Ben Johnson is that dude and Caleb's that dude, this is the start to the party, right? This is the type of game they come out and they whoop on a bad Carolina Panthers defense that, you know, their strength, I guess you could say, is partially in their D-line. but you should be able to combat that with what they've done up front with this bears team that's like a sneakily kind of kind of a strength for this team in some aspects as well so um i love this number by the book because it just it tempting both sides Like I can see why people are coming in the Bears and I think that's why you're making the hard rock better than we because it is. It's a really hard spot to pick. But if I have to pick a side, yeah, I'm going to take Panthers as a dog here.”

“the lions are a six and a half point favorite there is very clearly a consensus in the betting community that the lions are a team that should rebound they drafted well they have been historically unhealthy for two seasons in a row, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Dan Campbell, we love as a coach. The expectations are they will improve. Until last year, the latter half of last year, they were always very good at covering very big numbers. And on the flip side, we got a real taste of what Tyler Shuck can do and what Kellen Moore can do, and they obviously believe in Tyler Shuck for this year. They're not going in thinking, okay, we're going to get Arch Manning. And so do you look at this and think six and a half is a big number for the Saints, for the Lions to cover? Or is it the exact right spot to bet the Saints? If we had our contest lines, the Jags would be in, the Bucs would be in, and this game on Detroit lines would be a lock to be i'm so glad you said that because because you just told me i was wrong about the falcons and the steelers i was nervous to go all in on the lions but it just makes no sense to me of course the lions are going to be in this yeah like no that game is not comparable this one that atlanta game i don't really care about this game i care about this is not a game i'm betting heavy and hard rock i've literally had my guys in florida who are on vacation going to the books for me because it's like there's not too many six and a halfs out there so thank you hard rock for giving us this lovely number”

“this is easy easy bet houston plus one and a half you have to pick this every time”

“I believe we're also going to be in alignment in the New York Jets-Tennessee Titans game where the Tennessee Titans are short home favorites at minus two and a half against the New York Jets. It's been two seasons of us not getting it timed right with the Tennessee Titans. I think this is the season we do it. And there is too much hype and excitement over the New York Jets right now for zero reason. They had a good draft on paper. But we don't know who the quarterback is going to be. meaning you know geno smith circa 2014 is going to come back and be the new york jets quarterback we do like robert sala we do like cam ward we do like the fact they drafted in ways to support him Short number give me the Tennessee Titans”

“I believe we're also going to be in alignment in the New York Jets-Tennessee Titans game where the Tennessee Titans are short home favorites at minus two and a half against the New York Jets. It's been two seasons of us not getting it timed right with the Tennessee Titans. I think this is the season we do it. And there is too much hype and excitement over the New York Jets right now for zero reason. They had a good draft on paper. But we don't know who the quarterback is going to be. meaning you know geno smith circa 2014 is going to come back and be the new york jets quarterback we do like robert sala we do like cam ward we do like the fact they drafted in ways to support him Short number give me the Tennessee Titans Salah revenge game. Salah revenge game. I forgot about that. Yeah, I don't know. I feel like we should stick with our ban, banning us from betting any type of Tennessee Titans game. I can't get over it. We'd both be out of half a mil each if we just baited the Titans. But yeah, I'm with you. The number feels like it's the perfect number to take Cam Ward and this Tennessee team that we think would bend the Jets. But, you know, it's going to be week one. It's going to be Geno Smith. What did he do last year? He won his week one game at the Patriots. Like it's just week one's so stupid. So this game has stupid written all over it. Special teams, touchdowns, quarterbacks throwing the ball behind the lines. Other team are covering it for a touchdown. I can't get over how dumb this game is going to be. I'm going to be betting it with you. It pains me to say I'm probably in agreeance with you. Right now, it's a Tennessee number. I probably would take Tennessee.”

“Give me the Baltimore Ravens three-and-a-half-point road favorites against the Indianapolis Colts.”

“So we got Sunday night game. We got Monday night game. Sunday night game. I love, I love the Cowboys. You can tell me it's square. You can tell me it's public, but you know, I'm not on the Giants this year. And I actually feel like the Cowboys and Brian Schottenheimer last year, the two and a half point favorites at the Giants. I thought the Cowboys were pretty well coached last year offensively and their biggest failing was they had Matt Eberflus as the defensive coordinator and then had injuries I do think they will be improved this year on defense and healthier I think there will be a better team than they were last year I'm not a buyer on the Giants tell me it's square I don't care”

“I do find the value in backing between 265 goals and 279 goals total, which is about 5 to 1.”

“to plant my flag here okay you really planted your flag in that thing kendra i'm gonna write this one down go ahead it's already in they're both in the action app you're good to go they're already logged they're already there bangles over nine and a half or browns over six and a half if we're doing a parlay here but those are both already logged for me love them both i think the bangles have a very favorable schedule rather favorable division and they just cannot keep”

“Those were our plant-the-flag bets on the AFC. A quick recap for you. Kendra is on the Browns over 6.5 wins. Evan is on the Titans over 6.5 wins. I on the Steelers under 8 wins and Stucky is on the under for the Kansas City Chiefs at 10 That do it for today episode Special thanks to our producers David Payne and Gifford Gold StatTown Evan Abrams”

“Stucky is on the under for the Kansas City Chiefs at 10”

“I'm going to go with the Steelers under eight and a half wins. the tomlin just cut me so hard right there he had the steelers and the jags in his notes and he drops the nobody's gonna be mad and then drops the steelers on a jags podcast are you joking what is this fuckery i will say the there there are only two win total bets that i have that i have placed and they are on the jags over nine and a half wins at plus 110 and the Steelers under 8.5 at minus 145. The one, if you said, gun to your head, you can only hold one of these bets through the season, for me, it's the Steelers.”

“that i have placed and they are on the jags over nine and a half wins at plus 110”

“I am all 10 toes on the ground, standing firm on the Rams under 11 and a half.”

“loves the under 11 and a half on the rams evan what about you what do you think yeah so my main approach here is doing exactly what our best bets are i think of these three teams the under will go two and one and that's part of my best bet thought process so kendra took the rams i'm gonna take seattle under 10 and a half uh we haven't talked about it on the show but they fall under a just a decent win total trend which are and i'll go through this quickly in 2024 detroit won 15 games”

“well that's where i am also 49ers under 10 and a half wins i think it's pretty easy to predict that the nfc west isn't going to produce three double digit winners in back-to-back seasons, the 49ers to me feel like the biggest regression candidate out there.”

“The biggest edge that I show right now is at DraftKings Falcons over six and a half minus 115.”

“I like the Bengals over 9.5 minus 140,”

“but I also love the Browns over 6.5 plus 105.”

“Anyway, Bengals, I am all in on them. I love their division odds at 2-1, over 9.5 wins.”

“I'm taking the Bengals to win the AFC at 12 to 1.”

“Jill, what about you? Let's go unders. Let's go the other direction here. The teams that we are in sell, sell, sell mode on. I would go with the Steelers. Like, I know that we're kind of probably lockstep on this. I think that this is the finally we can just get rid of this team that just does enough to win but is never good enough. I think of that game against the Ravens last year to win that division. I think that was one of the more shitty games that I've watched just from a result standpoint when loop missed that field goal, because I was like, now we have to watch this crappy Steelers team. Now we have to listen about Mike Tomlin and this team making the playoffs again and making all this happen. And there was, it was literally just a mistake by the kicker. It had nothing to do with like Tomlin's voodoo and juju. And just now that he's gone, I just want the Steelers just to quietly go away for a few years, retool, then maybe we can have a conversation about them being invited back to the dance. Yep. I am with you a hundred percent. I do not know how their wind total over under is eight and a half I don know how they get every year Uh rah rah Tomlin spots They over now They need Mike McCarthy archaic schemes to get them over the hump who knows what the quarterback situation is going to look like if it not aaron rogers”

“Yep. I am with you a hundred percent. I do not know how their wind total over under is eight and a half I don know how they get every year Uh rah rah Tomlin spots They over now They need Mike McCarthy archaic schemes to get them over the hump who knows what the quarterback situation is going to look like if it not aaron rogers what is it and if it is aaron rogers what is it because i don't know if he's really all that good anymore um you have their first game is against atlanta so guys we have no that's an auto l kidding uh first road games of the year at patriots at cleveland cleveland is a that's a tough place to play no matter what quality you're getting. Patriots is a prime time as well right? I believe it is. Well let me look that up. So that would be I have all the prime time games here in front of me. Would it be Monday night football? I believe and that makes a difference. Prime time makes a difference. I don't think it is. No? Well now I have to see it before I continue on with my Steelers rant. I could be wrong. I thought that it was prime time, though. It is not. It is a 1 p.m. Eastern time. Would that be 2 p.m. Atlantic there, Jill? Yes, it would be. Atlantic time zone. Good math. The best. The best you'll find in the industry. I think if you could overreact your way to a Steelers 0-6 start, I'm just so down on this team, but Evan, what are you looking out as far as the unders go yeah you guys are doing a good job because you're taking some of the angles here i liked pittsburgh uh i assume someone is going to mention new england uh because i think that is a good under as well just comparing schedules from last year um this one's just really difficult i just don't see as many easy unders uh in these situations but i think pittsburgh is a good call minus six rest differential i mean me and jill just laid out why we like other teams in that division and honestly we talked about cleveland's over i kind of looked that direction as well like i feel like i don't want to say it you know and plant my flag on the browns but if i'm if i'm seeing positive signs from the other three teams you kind of have to look the under on the other side which would be the stealers so i agree there and i mean i was i would say the dolphins”

“bet it now plus 140 to miss the playoffs but we looking after week two that could look mighty nice recap for you kendra on to the Chargers to miss the playoffs at plus 140”

“I kind of like the Colts to go under this season. I just don't know how good they are. Look at their roster. Look at the way last year ended. I don't trust Daniel Jones. I think that division is getting better, right? Jacksonville should be better again. Yes. I think Tennessee is getting better. Houston is going to be good again. Houston's defense is probably the best in the NFL right now. The Colts to me feel like if they go one and five in division, you're going under seven and a half.”

“that high for a reason Evan detailed it well in uh in his recap I like the Lions over 10 and a half”

“The Vikings to make the playoffs is awesome value right now at plus 170.”

“Under 10 and a half wins is a best bet type for me on the San Francisco 49ers.”

“there's a team with a really low win total that wins even fewer games in their win total uh i feel like that's always the fun one that everyone forgets they end up with two or three wins you end up catching your ticket no one realizes it i just feel like that has to be arizona I just don't know how with their division, with the fact that the teams that they face throughout the entire season, like some of the numbers are just absolutely incredible. It's incredible. Like their average win total they face is 9.3. It's the highest in history, like ever. Now, obviously, we've moved to a higher schedule within the last five years, but the number is still the highest within that distance. uh i mean again week one they're like an 11 point dog to the chargers which is going to be very similar to what the lines are going to kind of look like all season uh also on top of all those things fourth worst net rest so not only are is the schedule ridiculous but the schedule also did them no luck so there's like all these things is just ridiculous they also think about this one this one's crazy they face seven different opponents with a double digit win total across 10 separate matchups they face an average team of 47 to 1 in Super Bowl futures if you want a comparison the Bengals face a 93 to 1 on average so I mean it's just incredible how many teams and how many bad games Arizona has so I just feel like they're going to start bad and it's going to be a easier ticket than most or how bad they're supposed to be worst roster in the NFL perhaps them in Miami are duking it out for that. Both have win totals of four and a half.”

“uh i like the lions and the saints to go over 48 uh i i did it at minus 120”

“i'm gonna go with the giants plus two and a half week one”

“Colin, I don't see it for the Colts. If you start 0-5, just forget about it. Write the season off. The problem is the Jets have their pick. So I am doubly invested. The under 7.5 for the Colts. Oh, yeah. Okay? I feel like I don't see the path to five wins for them, and the Jets get their pick.”

“i love the over nine and a half yes for the chargers here”

“Oh I look forward to this Your boy Brock Purdy Headline for the Niners This is a tough one because I got a lot of friends who are niners fans they like how i joined the bandwagon and i a purdy guy and i give you a little some some jabs every time you come at purdy this season is gonna be a tough one the headline for the 49ers this season will be the fourth and niners sf can forget about 10 wins colin you see the weather report there under 10 and a half seems like a lock yeah so this is the most travel it looks like in NFL history 38,000 miles that's a little crazy now some of the numbers here Colin I didn't realize so McCaffrey turns 30 this summer okay he just had the most touches in his NFL career oh 413 wow so allegedly the magic number used to be 370 if you hit that many touches next season was gonna be rough he destroyed that with 413 that's not great and then I looked up Trent Williams he's starting 38 this summer he is kind of a single point of failure for this offense he is if anything happens to him he's out for a couple weeks they're kind of cooked now I like you know Mike Evans new addition yeah we'll see Kirk good player yeah Ray Greenlaw very good linebacker but like you said they're old they kind of need that opener against the Rams they do because then you can start three you know they'll beat the Dolphins and Cardinals those will be those will be wins um I the first half of the season is manageable second half is tough and for an old team late in the season to have Rams, Chargers, Chiefs, Eagles. I mean, that's a December gauntlet you do not want to make. So we'll see a couple trips to the East Coast. I don't know, man. I'm sorry, under 10 and a half.”

“but we'll just do an even money money line bet i'll take the chiefs you take the broncos he said yes”

“the literally the only two bets that i have logged in dk so far carson beck rookie of the year and then i'm also going to go with my kyle lemons over”

“that I have a Makai Lemon future for him to have over four touchdowns”

“Evan Abrams is on Omar Cooper four plus touchdowns at minus one 20.”

“I'm going Casey Concepcion 28 to one and Denzel Boston 30 to one.”

“I'm going Casey Concepcion 28 to one and Denzel Boston 30 to one.”

“So I'm right there with you, Chet. I couldn't believe it's not just one or two people, right? It's multiple people now are trying to give this Giants team some credence and some hype. And I already told you where I'm at. It's one of my favorite unders. So I already hit it at seven and a half.”

“Okay, I have this or that question for you. better bet right now Yankees to win the World Series at plus 850. I was just going to say this. Or the Mets to miss the playoffs at plus 140. I got to take the Yankees to win the World Series. And I think they have major warts and major deficiencies.”

“the prince of buffalo baby girl so what does this mean is this good for the bills or bad it is this is the baby girl yes it's the baby girl trend girl dad energy it's the girl dad trend i gotta put a future on josh allen as soon as the show ends it's happening i yeah all right I'm going to bet on them to win the division now.”

“The Dodgers over-under total for this season is 102.5 wins.”

“friends at hard rock bet first off we've got the nfc east and the dallas cowboys are set at eight and a half wins uh it's minus 135 on the over plus 110 on the under so a little juice on the over the cow the whole nfc east their divisional matchups are the afc south and nfc west not easy afc south again i think median difficulty nfc west very tough dallas's strength of schedule games however i am pretty unlucky this is because they have the second place schedule de manzi which means they draw tampa instead of carolina baltimore instead of pittsburgh and green bay instead of chicago now i think i think chicago is better than Green Bay but you could argue those are the three toughest teams in those divisions They draw them all with a second-place schedule rather than a first-place schedule. But I think this is too low. I think the Cowboys are going to draft two defensive players in the first round. I think their offense is excellent. eight and a half. I thought Schottenheimer did a good job last year, and I don't think the rest of the division has a great team in it. And so we'll talk more about Philly in a minute. And so I think this is too low, and Dallas right now is my preseason lean for divisional winner. I think Dallas wins 11 games next year.”

“We got Philly. Their win total is at 10.5, plus 105 on the over, minus 125 on the under. So a little juice to the under. So they get the opposite of Dallas in that they have the first-place strength of schedule, but it really seems easier than Dallas' second-place strength of schedule. Their strength of schedule games are Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Chicago. This is an under to me. I think Sirianni enters the year on the hottest seat of just about any coach in the league this side of Todd Bowles. I think because they're going to have to trade A.J. Brown, I think they will after the draft, they're not going to get any benefit from that this year. They're going to get future draft capital i think the aging and the some of the uncertainty on the offensive line which has been such a huge position of strength for them plus some of the players they lost defensively in free agency i think this is a you know bit of a we saw it throughout last year to a from Philly. Could they make the playoffs? Sure. Could they win 10 games and maybe win the division? Maybe, but I think this is an under. I think they are more likely to win nine games than they are to win 12 games, and so at 10.5, I'll go with the under. Next.”

“Commander is set at 7.5, wins minus 110 on the over, minus 110 on the under. Their strength to schedule games are Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Minnesota. They, of course, play their own division plus the AFC South and NFC West. This is an under. I don't think they, despite”

“Our overs are, we are going over Dallas 8.5, over Chicago 9.5,”

“Green Bay Packers set at 10.5 wins, plus 100 on the over, minus 120 on the under. Slight under.”

“Next. Vikings are set at 8.5, plus 110 on the over, minus 135 on the under. Sorry, Paul. I'm going under.”

“Are you picking the division futures? Oh, thank you. I appreciate that. So just real quick, for the NFC, I would lean getting plus 325. I think it's a coin flip, Detroit and Chicago for the division. And so the fact that I'm getting double the odds on Chicago as I would on Detroit, I'll take Chicago. So at least right now.”

“NFC South, we got the Falcons at 7.5 wins, plus 105 on the over, minus 125 on the under. Are you picking the division futures? Oh, thank you. I appreciate that. So just real quick, for the NFC, I would lean getting plus 325. I think it's a coin flip, Detroit and Chicago for the division. And so the fact that I'm getting double the odds on Chicago as I would on Detroit, I'll take Chicago. So at least right now. All right, NFC South, they draw the AFC North and NFC North. Atlanta's third place strength of schedule games are Washington plus Kansas City and San Francisco. Bit of a bummer that that's your third place strength of schedule draw there. I will go with the under for the Falcons.”

“Oh, my bad. Carolina Panthers. Because I thought that was crazy. 6.5 wins, minus 150 on the over, plus 125 on the under. Listen, I understand that their strength of schedule games are brutal. Denver, Seattle, and Philly. but six and a half wins for a defending division champ that is returning its quarterback and coach is a slap in the face i mean they went toe-to-toe with the rams i don't love it but i will go with the over there i mean six and now there's a lot of juice on it six and a half wins is insulting”

“yeah for a defending division champion all right next you got the saints at seven and a half wins minus 120 on the over minus 105 on the under so the last place schedule for the saints doing a lot of work here their strength of schedule games in addition to playing the afc and nfc north raiders cardinals giants with that said raiders spent a lot of money The Giants we just said we thought could be mediocre I think the Saints are bad. Tyler Shuck, I thought played well last year to his credit. But they're in the midst of pulling themselves out of the abyss. I don't think they get to eight wins. I will go under in New Orleans.”

“And last one. All right, we got Tampa at 8.5 wins, minus 115 on the over, minus 105 on the under. Strength of schedule games, both LA teams, Chargers and Rams, plus Dallas can't quit Baker. I think they're going to win the division. I like them at plus 160 to win the division. I like Todd Bowles knows this, you know, it's go time in Atlanta for him. Baker also knows he ended last year disastrously. and Emeka Buka knows his final eight games were mortifying. No Mike Evans, so Buka's role should enhance. I like their running game. Defense needs to be better. I think Tampa bounces back. The team I picked to go to the Super Bowl last year that then fell apart entirely, I will go with Tampa for the over.”

“And last one. All right, we got Tampa at 8.5 wins, minus 115 on the over, minus 105 on the under. Strength of schedule games, both LA teams, Chargers and Rams, plus Dallas can't quit Baker. I think they're going to win the division. I like them at plus 160 to win the division.”

“What's the lowest win total? We got the Cardinals at four and a half wins, plus 110 on the over, and minus 135 on the under. I think they're the lowest. This is a bad job by me. Tied with the Dolphins for the lowest. Okay, that's what I thought. Their quarterback depth chart right now reads Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew Keaton Slovis which says to me they are ripe to be a team that takes a quarterback in the second or third round that has no business starting his rookie year and they start him This whole division gets the AFC West, which is brutal. NFC East, not so bad. Their strength of schedule games are Jets, Lions, and New Orleans. I think Arizona's got the makings of the worst team in their conference. I hate going under a win total that low, but I feel like they've got 0-6 in the division.”

“got the Rams at 10.5 wins minus 160 on the over plus 130 on the under if Stafford's healthy they're positioned to be the best team in the league and I love the they had one weakness last year secondary they took the Chiefs two best corners in McDuffie and Jalen Watson their strength to schedule games are Bills Green Bay and Tampa so not easy but it still feels like who's gonna be there next year well I do but I I have not read enough about that story I've only really to be totally honest just seeing the tweets and one picture it's not great and i do wonder i wonder if that's just enough for the rams to remember we said he's going to get more than jsn yeah but he hasn't signed anything yet right i i wonder what maybe they can compromise with them a little bit i don't know um but i still think they're a 13 win team that's an over next uh next we've got”

“is just right, so I'd stay away from it. Next. Seahawks at 10.5 wins, minus 135 on the over, and plus 110 on the under. Their strength of schedule games are New England, Chicago, Carolina. Not brutal for a first place team. I actually think that's an over. So I'm going to, I got two teams in that division with big win totals that I would go over on Seattle and the Rams and the”

“[29:15] Joe, what is your best bet surrounding Aaron Judge? [29:18] His batting average prop this year is 291. [29:21] I'm going to play the under.”

“The biggest is Shohei Ohtani. Joe, what is our best bet on the two-way superstar? Leeds Major League Baseball on RBIs pays 14-1. Love the price for a guy who just two seasons ago had 130 RBIs and finished second in Major League Baseball.”

“Yeah. Kyle Schwarber is back on the list this year. RBI. 35 to one. I made him 20 to one last year for RBI leader. He's 35 to one this year. It was 50 to one last year. So I'm fine betting it at 35 to one still.”

“So the general takeaway and analyzing the futures market this year was much more value in the milestone and ladder props than there is in the outright leader props. The biggest edges I found on outright leader props was Otani RBI leader at 14 to one.”

“the more long shot leader props are a little bit more interesting stolen base leader. Chandler Simpson is five to one. I like him, but Victor Scott at 25 to one, I think is a good bet as well. You know,”

“the most interesting market maybe because the totals are so low for win totals or for, for pitcher wins, I should say. the winner of pitcher wins is only going to get 20 right or 22 at most you know compared to saves or strikeouts or hits or home runs like the gap is so much more compressed and everything is a little bit more random but logan webb at 20 to 1 fromber valdez at 30 to 1 george kirby at 50 to 1 uh i think those are all great bets because what i found doing research into pitcher wins”

“the most interesting market maybe because the totals are so low for win totals or for, for pitcher wins, I should say. the winner of pitcher wins is only going to get 20 right or 22 at most you know compared to saves or strikeouts or hits or home runs like the gap is so much more compressed and everything is a little bit more random but logan webb at 20 to 1 fromber valdez at 30 to 1 george kirby at 50 to 1 uh i think those are all great bets because what i found doing research into pitcher wins”

“the most interesting market maybe because the totals are so low for win totals or for, for pitcher wins, I should say. the winner of pitcher wins is only going to get 20 right or 22 at most you know compared to saves or strikeouts or hits or home runs like the gap is so much more compressed and everything is a little bit more random but logan webb at 20 to 1 fromber valdez at 30 to 1 george kirby at 50 to 1 uh i think those are all great bets because what i found doing research into pitcher wins”

“And the point is that Kevin McGonigal is like the best prospect we've ever seen at those skills. The power and speed are pretty good, but he's more of like a 20-20 guy at best. He's not going to go 30-30 or 40-40, but he's probably going to hit 290 and have a really high on base percentage because his swing decisions are so elite. So he's 6-1 right now for rookie of the year. I think his floor is incredibly high, incredibly high. It's just a matter of whether the counting stats get surpassed by somebody else. But McGonagall right now, A.L. rookie of the year, I would lock that in. It's the most recent award bets I made.”

“So he's 6-1 right now for rookie of the year. I think his floor is incredibly high, incredibly high. It's just a matter of whether the counting stats get surpassed by somebody else. But McGonagall right now, A.L. rookie of the year, I would lock that in. It's the most recent award bets I made. So that's why I'm bringing it up. J.J. Weatherholt in the NL. Similar case, probably not as good as McGonagall, but another really good swing decisions guy who may not have like the aesthetically pleasing athleticism that you would want, but a very safe floor.”

“completely opposite. So the Minnesota Twins are a team that the public projection market is really high on this year. They have them at about 77.5 wins. I have them at 70.6. Again, 77.5 versus 70.6. Their win total is 72.5. This is a team who is probably going to sell off a lot of pieces at the trade deadline. They did last year. They had to sell off minority shares of their ownership. So not only did they not invest in their roster, they were actively looking for investors into their team so that they could pay their roster. So this is not a team that's going to be adding pieces. It's only a team that's going to be selling pieces. As a result, I'm under their win total. I bet their win total under.”

“the braves are a team who i bet the win total under and i've also bet them to miss the playoffs during spring”

“I bet Houston at plus 155, plus 165 to miss the playoffs.”

“But I'd say to make the playoffs, to make or miss the playoffs, and then the divisional odds are where you're going to find the biggest values in the team futures market. I bet Houston at plus 155, plus 165 to miss the playoffs. I bet San Diego in a similar range. They're both minus 110 now. So a month ago, you know, six weeks ago, if you had jumped on those bets, I thought there was a 15, 20% edge on those bets, like a humongous edge, an edge you'll never find on a single”

“Right now, that bet that has the humongous edge is Seattle to win the AL West. So I think that's the best bet on the board.”

“It's the Yankees under 92 and a half and the Rays over 76 and a half. [35:56] The Yankees is gone. [35:57] It's down to 90 and a half. [35:59] The Rays over would remain a bet because I have them closer to 80 wins, 81 wins.”

“And then the third team you mentioned is Minnesota. They're an interesting case because they have an ownership battle going on. or they ended up, they were going to sell the team. They ended up selling shares of the team to a minority ownership group. It doesn't seem like they're going to invest in their roster at all. Even the minor league free agents and stuff that they tried to sign in the off season, none of them ended up making the roster and they cut all those guys. So they made no improvements to their roster. Buxton was able to stay healthy last year for the first time in forever. There's a lot of injury risk on this roster too. Pablo Lopez got hurt. Joe Ryan is probably going to get traded at some point. The point is the average public projection has the team at 77 and a half wins. Their win total is 72.5. So everybody says go over. The problem is, even though right now this is a 77, 78 win team, in July it's probably not going to be. This was the most active team at the trade deadline last year. They'll probably be one of, if not the most active teams in terms of selling off pieces this year. So you're looking at a team that right now may be a 78 win team. And right now in the betting market, especially if you're up any day, we'll end up getting there. But right now in the betting market, in terms of a game by game basis, they may be undervalued. But from a season long perspective, I think the public projections are pointing in the wrong direction just because they're not able to accurately capture how much this team will sell in season. So be careful. You know, we talked about averaging out the public projections, using that to help you form a consensus opinion. you do have to weigh that against news and things that are going on in the real world. And the news is all pointing downward for the twins. So do not trust the public projection there. I make them 70.6 and I actually bet the under for that team.”

“My favorite win total over, we didn't get to them. The Marlins over 72 and a half. You could take that up to 75.”

“Kendra? I think I'm going to switch gears here and I'm going to go with my boy. So Nelson. No, I'm going to go. Yes. I'm going to go with my boy, Paul Skeens, to make the postseason plus 225 on Giraffe Kings. Now that would be fun. We all need that. All right. Pirates into the postseason.”

“I'm going to take the Astros under 86 and a half wins. I think this number is too close to the ceiling for a team that is trending down”

“Chiefs at 10.5, plus 100 on the over, minus 120 on the under. All right. I must say, I adore, adore the Chiefs' strength of the schedule games. Oh, okay, yeah. The Colts, Bengals, Falcons. My goodness gracious. Finally, you don't win the division, and we end up with that. I'll take it. NFC West, obviously, is tough. So the Chiefs next year have two games against the Raiders. They get the Colts. They get the Falcons. They get the Jets. They get the Dolphins. They get the Cardinals. That's seven of their games. So if they go 6 against the bad teams to hit the over can they go 5 against Denver the Chargers the Pats the Niners Bills, Rams, Seahawks, Bengals? Now, Bills, Rams, Seahawks on the road, that's three very tough road games, no doubt about it. But the Chiefs are still the Chiefs. And winning 11 games was the absolute floor every single year prior to last year. That's too low. They're still the best team in that division. That's an over for me. And you can get plus 100 on the over.”

“all right last one oh we got the chargers at 10 and a half they're plus 115 on the over minus 140 on the under for a non-divisional winner their strength of schedule games are brutal they play the fate they play a second place schedule and every team every one of their strength of schedule games is the favorite to win the division Houston Baltimore Tampa Right Now I obviously said I not a huge believer in Houston but still they are the favorite This is a red hot under for me. This is way too, this is too high.”

“We are back and we'll go back to the NFL where projected win totals have been set for each team. We're going to play a little more or less Fortinball. Let's start with Baltimore where the Ravens have more or less wins than the set 11.5, which is the most of any team in the NFL. I'm going to go less, but it's not one of my more confident plays.”

“All right, more or less for the Dolphins. They gutted everything. More or less than four and a half wins. I would go less because I don't understand the purpose of winning five.”

“Their win total, nine and a half, more or less for Peyton and Denver. I'm going less here.”

“Will the Eagles have more or less than 10 and a half wins I going to go less I think the first thing on the board you say to yourself can they return to form from a rushing standpoint”

“The Cowboys are next up as they are projected to win 8.5, so more or less for the Cowboys. I'd go more.”

“All right, let's wrap up the Giants now. seven and a half. You said this is your team now. More or less than seven and a half projected wins. I'm going way more. I actually thought this football team, when they hired John Harbaugh,”

“Arizona, four and a half. Under. Agree.”

“Miami, four and a half. Under. Agree.”

“Las Vegas, five and a half. Fernando. But I'm still taking the under.”

“Atlanta, seven and a half. I'm going to go with the, I'm going with the over.”

“Washington, seven and a half. I'd go with the over there. I'd go with the over because I think they're going to get an easier schedule.”

“Washington, seven and a half. I'd go with the over there. I'd go with the over because I think they're going to get an easier schedule. Daniels is back for a full season. And their defense can only get better. And they know what the issues are. So I would like the over there. I'm taking the under. I get why you're taking the over, though. But to me, I think it's priced right. I'm just taking the under just because, once again, as much as I like Daniels,”

“Dallas Cowboys, eight and a half. I'll bite. I'm a sucker. I'll take the over.”

“Indy, eight and a half. [35:42] I'm going under here.”

“Indy, eight and a half. I'm going under here. Yeah. What is this number? It's too big. Number. Yeah. We don't even know when Daniel Jones is going to be playing. So are we saying that? do you remember what he did he tore his achilles right he tore his achilles yeah that's like and he tore his achilles midway through the year it's not like he tore his achilles in september so that like we've seen great quarterbacks miss the full year for that um in a division with houston jackson on a tennessee team we think it's gonna be better so chad chad's i think we're in alignment you're like the under right yes as i said under yeah so to me like this and the giants since you're two unders, I've been betting pretty heavily.”

“Giants seven and a half. that feels like a Harbaugh bounce, right? Like there's no other reason to be betting on the Giants at seven and a half if other than you think they are just going to completely revamp their culture because of what John Harbaugh is going to bring to that team. This is like one of my favorite under bets. And I know some pros that have been hammering this over.”

“Minnesota we talked about Pitt Is it eight and a half Taking the under on Pittsburgh I don know who the quarterback going to be I feel like they revamping their culture They aren't leaning into players they develop.”

“Denver, nine and a half. I'll take the over.”

“Denver, nine and a half. I'll take the over. We don't know what's going to be happening with Kansas City yet. And when Patrick Mahomes is going to come back, the Chargers are... could be 15-2. They could be 9-8. You never know with that team. I like what their defense is. They just added Jalen Waddell. We know Bo Nix will be back. I think that Sean Payton is a good enough coach that a 10-7 team with this talent is not at all inconceivable to me. I'd rather be betting the over on this team than the under. Yeah, and just like the Bills, this is one of my bigger, bigger bets I've made before this offseason, I'm taking their over.”

“Here I am with my lovely 75 to one ticket on Atlanta to win the Superbowl next year.”

“or is it just something that you ignore Yeah we also had the two favorites went for Cy Young last year as well and Scoobble and Skeens because they stayed healthy So last year was a very chalky awards market because all the favorites stayed healthy for the entire year I think that that is extremely unlikely to happen again, and I think as a result, one of them probably loses their award category. Factor in poor performance, potentially, or just poor variance on top of that. I think Otani is much safer than Judge, because one, Otani DHs, so he doesn't have the probability of getting hurt in the field. He's only going to get hurt on the base pass. Two, he pitches, which adds to his wins above replacement total. And even if he gets hurt as a pitcher, he could still DH and accumulate all the wins above replacement. He does a DH. I think Judge is the likeliest one of those four to get hurt. Judge has a lingering toe issue, which he said he will have to monitor for the rest of his career. But it's something that cannot be fixed. So if it starts to flare up again, he's going to have to miss time. And missing three weeks, four weeks could be enough to open the door for somebody else like a Bobby Wood Jr. or Gunnar Henderson or Julio Rodriguez to potentially pass him in war and end up stealing the award. War, wins above replacement, is the most important correlative stat in terms of predicting the winner for these categories. And you accumulate that one by being good, but two, by playing a full season. So it is, by and large, going to come down to injury for these guys. Scooble is the only one of the four that I bet, only one of the four favorites that I bet.”

“Cease is a guy I bet for Cy Young, for AL Cy Young, which I did also bet Tarek Skool in”

“The wins market to me is very interesting just because there's so much variance, right? And so is there, obviously you're. You can only cap the winner so high. The winner's not going to get more than like 20, right? So the separation is narrow. Skubo's obviously the leader, but I'm assuming you are looking a bit more down the board. Anyone worth mentioning? Yeah, I like his teammate. I like Frambois Valdez. I bet him at about 30 to one.”

“16 plus wins for Fromber [23:30] is the only wins milestone bet I placed, [23:32] but it's actually a bigger edge than his outright prop.”

“Winsleader. Kirby, the most optimal bet for me was Winsleader. I don't think I have any other bets on Kirby. If I do, it might be like 200 plus strikeouts. But by and large, I allocated Kirby Winsleader, Wu strikeouts, and Gilbert strikeouts.”

“I bet Gilbert K leader props. I bet Gilbert K ladder props. I bet Brian Wu K leader props I bet Brian Wu K ladder props So I talking like 200 210 plus 220 plus I think there much bigger edges on those props for Gilbert than there is in his wins leader market. But those outcomes are essentially correlated. In order to get to the 200 plus strikeout level, he's going to need to start enough games to be in consideration for the wins leader market.”

“I bet Brian Wu K leader props I bet Brian Wu K ladder props So I talking like 200 210 plus 220 plus I think there much bigger edges on those props for Gilbert than there is in his wins leader market. But those outcomes are essentially correlated. In order to get to the 200 plus strikeout level, he's going to need to start enough games to be in consideration for the wins leader market. So I'm just trying to optimize my betting card, my futures card in terms of the best”

“And if he's going to get there, he's going to strike out 200 plus hitters. This was one of my biggest edges in terms of milestone props. Jacob Marcy's stolen base ladder was my other biggest edge in terms of milestone props. When I was sitting here at home, I was unable to get the money down that I wanted on those props. and as a result ended up traveling out of state and driving three hours each way right before that two-foot blizzard that we got here in New York and round tripping it all within 24 hours so I could get down on most of these props, but especially the Trey Yosavage props. So yeah, I really like Yosavage this year. He is the AL favorite, I believe, for Rookie of the Year alongside his teammate Kazuma Akimoto, who came over from Japan. But essentially, Yosavage's Rookie of the Year odds kind of align, or not even align with. They fall short of his odds to get 200 plus Ks. So why would I bet Yosavage at 6-1 for Rookie of the Year, when in order to win that award, he probably needs to get 200 plus Ks, and I can get 9-1 on his 200 plus K props.”

“Are you thinking about it the same way for RBIs? Do you have anyone you're targeting there? Schwarber, we cashed last year. I'm right on Schwarber again this year at 35 to 1. So the whole the whole thesis with Schrober last year was he used to hit lead off he's moving down to second flipping lineup spots with Trey Turner should add 10-15 RBI to his total I projected him at 20-1 last year they gave me 50-1 I projected him at 21 last year they still gave me 35-1 so yeah I'm backing on Schrober this year 100%”

“And if not, is there anyone you like either the lead in stolen bases or any stolen base props? Yeah, there's two guys I really like from a stolen base perspective from the outright. Three guys I like if you include the milestones. Simpson is absolutely on that list. Simpson is basically Billy Hamilton, except he strikes out half as often as Billy Hamilton. Billy Hamilton had a career 20% strikeout rate. Simpson was at 10% last year. So even though he doesn't walk or get on base, he puts the ball in play always. And the speed is going to get him on base because he's so ridiculously fast. As I said, the fastest home to first time in the stack cast era by like a tenth of a second, which means he's probably the fastest ever. I doubt anybody before the stack cast era was running as fast as this dude. Now, I do project value on his outright prop. I make him about plus 450. I bet him at five to one.”

“I bet Julio Rodriguez for AL MVP.”

“Matt Mitchell. Here we'll go. Buffalo bills minus 10 and a half. One, two, three. Oh, uh, uh, this is, this feels like an easy, easy over for me. Uh, Josh Allen. I don't care who the new head coach is. I like Joe Brady. I think he'll be able to make that offensive work, what he's done these last couple of years, leaning more into the run, protecting the ball more with Josh. I love it all. I mean, to me, the question has always been on the defense, and I don't see it as a negative getting rid of, you know, what I view it as a... a mid-level coach in the way he especially coached the defense now. And, you know, Sean McDermott had his time. And I do think here this is a low total where if they still had him, this is probably 11 and a half. Maybe the public feels more confident about it. I'm the other way. It feels like last year was a down year for that Bills team. I think this is way, way over. So I've hit this quite a little bit, Chad.”

“Detroit, 10 and a half, minus 135 to the over, plus 110 to the under. This is a tricky one. Detroit, 10 and a half. Let me think about it. One, two, three, under. Yeah, this is, again, just like the Bills, this is my second biggest bet I've made in this offseason. Wow. And in the under. Yeah, I can't believe it. This feels like a line from the past. We talk all the time, football, your window closes pretty quick. And you can lie to yourself and say, well, they've had bad injury luck. That O-line is done. There is no saving that O-line. They've had guys retiring. They've had guys with a ton of injuries. They've not drafted right for the O-line. And we've seen if golf doesn't have an O-line, I mean, that's going to be a big problem. So to me, maybe your defense gets a little healthier. But in that division, I just think Green Bay is going to be better. I think the Bears, even though you can say they went way better than they should have been last year, they're going to build off that. This is going to be a year or two of Ben Johnson. So even with the questions you might have with the Vikings in the clear position, I think 10.5 is a pass line. So I know some pros who have actually liked this over, and they've been betting it. You can get this now at a plus number for the under. So a couple of different blocks, plus 120, plus 115. I really like this under on the Detroit team”

“the Carolina Panthers over six and a half.”

“Let's do a game of more or less in February. Damian, Woody, we start with you. Steelers won 10 games last season, first year with Mike McCarthy at the helm. Win total, we don't know who the quarterback is. Eight and a half wins, more or less. Say less.”

“year, which sends us to the New York Giants, because we look at their win total, seven and a half. John Harbaugh takes over as the head coach with Matt Nagy, the offensive coordinator. We go to Tim Hasselbeck. More or less, seven and a half wins for the Giants, Tim. A little more.”

“It's time to start talking about NFL season futures. um super bowl 61 odds at hard rock bet right now the los angeles ramps the seattle seahawks the buffalo bills at plus 1100 uh the rams and the seahawks are both at plus 900 those are the shortest odds right now the ravens plus looks like 1300 packers plus 1400 eagles simon they're plus 1400 have you looked at any of these yet have you given any serious thought to these yet not really like i did put a single bet on the chiefs because i book did hang them at 15 to 1”

“I'm going to go with the Falcons. I already placed the bet on it. 75 to one.”

“the division sets up well for the chargers too it's 20 to 1 i think the chargers are next year's rams and hopefully they actually make the super bowl in that one did you look it up is it la so we could get a home super bowl too i was just going to say you nailed it It at SoFi So we taking the Chargers to win the Super Bowl at home And listen the Rams you know we almost got there this year So we take the Chargers on the AFC side. Chargers at home with the home field penalty as I often give them at SoFi Stadium. So I'm not sure if that's good or bad for our bet, but we'll go out with Chargers 20 to 1 either way for 2027.”

“Listen, I'll definitely bet the Chiefs at 15-1 to win the Super Bowl.”

“So this is where you were really laughing at me. Kendra's already giving me shit for this. The coffee was really hitting yesterday. I bet the Falcons to win next year's Super Bowl. That's how in the weeds we got. 75 to 1.”

“Absolutely. I'm going more.”

“All right, Rayvon, I want to kick it to you. What are your thoughts with the AFC East? We have the Patriots with a win total around 11, the Bills at 6.5, the Jets at 7, 7.5, and the Dolphins, as Warren said, around 4.5 or 5. Anything catch your eye there? And how do you see this division playing out? Yeah. So, I mean, the Patriots have been one of the best win over in terms of their win total, one of the best over bets over, you know, in the Belichick era. However, they just missed it last year. And I don't think I would bet over 11 wins this year either. I mean, first of all, betting on a high win total, just usually not a smart move. but if you look at the Patriots uh you know they have this stretch where they it's in week uh week eight they host Cleveland then they go to Dallas then they have the bye then they go to Philly and then they play Houston you know and they go to Baltimore in that stretch too so they have a ton of kind of games where they could kind of slip up uh and it could kind of pile on and they end that stretch they come home but then they have to face the Kansas City Chiefs which probably the best team in the conference right now. So it's going to be a tough stretch. They open against Pittsburgh at home. They should probably get that done, but I don't feel confident that they necessarily get to 12 wins. Tom Brady getting a year older. If you look at his career yards per attempt 7.2 without Rob Gronkowski 8.1 width and that's very predictive of success is just being able to move the past the ball efficiently It why even though the Packers have had Aaron Rodgers for all these years these last four or five years they haven't really been that successful because as good as he is at not turning the ball over and throwing touchdowns, it's not as efficient as it once was. So Patriots, I think, are leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the division, but wouldn't bet on them over 11 wins. And then I am out on the Jets. I'm going under. I don't trust Adam Gase.”

“How about you? Favorite ACC win totals? Yeah, I think we're doing the listeners some justice here because we've got almost every team encompassed here with some sort of total. I'm saying BC under six and a half. There are six and a half out there. Shop port and get it because I think six would be a push. That's tough sledding for them with the back end of that schedule. Florida State over all the way.”

“If you get extra $10 and you don't get guacamole on your Chipotle, maybe you want to think about that. Anyways, Florida State over their win total. Pitt over their win total.”

“And let's finish up with our favorite win totals in the ACC. Look, I said it before, I'll start with mine. I think there's a lot of sharp win totals in the ACC, and it's just a tough conference to cap because there's so many teams outside of Clemson that are so close. There's a ton of coin flip games that you might as well not lock up your money and wait until the season starts. However, there are a couple that do stick out to me that I might be investing in. So I think Duke, NC State, Virginia, BC, Pitt, Wake, Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville all look about right. The unders that I would look at, But UNC and Georgia Tech just with all of the changes and the coordinators and the different systems I think there a lot that can go wrong And then Syracuse I just think it too high here and the love from last year is carrying over with that schedule quarterback change It just I don think everything is going to go as right with Syracuse who will have that special teams that give them an edge but I think eight too high for them And then the overs sound really square, but I like Virginia Tech and Miami as the only two overlooks in the ACC. Both schedules are very favorable. I think they, you know, just if they win the games, they should. They should get the nine wins with chances at upsets. I think both defenses are going to be good. I think Votek's defense is going to bounce back. Miami's defense is excellent. And I think we talked about that regression to the mean. I think you're going to see that with Virginia Tech. I think Miami gets them in Miami and wins that game. But I actually like both overs with Votek and Miami getting to nine wins.”

“And let's finish up with our favorite win totals in the ACC. Look, I said it before, I'll start with mine. I think there's a lot of sharp win totals in the ACC, and it's just a tough conference to cap because there's so many teams outside of Clemson that are so close. There's a ton of coin flip games that you might as well not lock up your money and wait until the season starts. However, there are a couple that do stick out to me that I might be investing in. So I think Duke, NC State, Virginia, BC, Pitt, Wake, Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville all look about right. The unders that I would look at, But UNC and Georgia Tech just with all of the changes and the coordinators and the different systems I think there a lot that can go wrong And then Syracuse I just think it too high here and the love from last year is carrying over with that schedule quarterback change It just I don think everything is going to go as right with Syracuse who will have that special teams that give them an edge but I think eight too high for them And then the overs sound really square, but I like Virginia Tech and Miami as the only two overlooks in the ACC. Both schedules are very favorable. I think they, you know, just if they win the games, they should. They should get the nine wins with chances at upsets. I think both defenses are going to be good. I think Votek's defense is going to bounce back. Miami's defense is excellent. And I think we talked about that regression to the mean. I think you're going to see that with Virginia Tech. I think Miami gets them in Miami and wins that game. But I actually like both overs with Votek and Miami getting to nine wins.”

“I do want to start with Kentucky because the projections for them, probably anywhere from five to six wins, depending on where you're looking right now. At the Action Network, Colin Wilson has him projected for 5.45 wins and only two conference wins. Where are you coming in on that, Drew Franklin? I mean, take my money. I'm all in on the over.”